WorldWideScience

Sample records for high commodity prices

  1. Commodity Price Volatility: The Impact of Commodity Index Traders

    OpenAIRE

    Getu, Hailu; Weersink, Alfons

    2010-01-01

    Over the years, critics have argued that futures market prices have been either too low or too high. Speculators have often been the target for the wrath of those feeling the futures price does not properly reflect market fundamentals. Recently, the criticism has been vented toward a new type of speculator that has been blamed for the dramatic changes in agricultural commodity prices experienced over the last several years. Commodity index traders (CITs) and other large institutional traders ...

  2. Does Monetary Policy Respond to Commodity Price Shocks?

    OpenAIRE

    Ano Sujithan, Kuhanathan; Koliai, Lyes; Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi

    2013-01-01

    Commodity prices, especially oil prices, peaked in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007 and they have remained highly volatile. All things being equal, the increase in commodity prices may induce a similar tendency of inflation and hence become a monetary policy issue. However, the impact of the changes of commodity prices on inflation is not clear. In this paper, by using Markov-switching models we show that there is an implicit impact of commodity markets on short-term interest rat...

  3. Biofuel and Food-Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Zilberman

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper summarizes key findings of alternative lines of research on the relationship between food and fuel markets, and identifies gaps between two bodies of literature: one that investigates the relationship between food and fuel prices, and another that investigates the impact of the introduction of biofuels on commodity-food prices. The former body of literature suggests that biofuel prices do not affect food-commodity prices, but the latter suggests it does. We try to explain this gap, and then show that although biofuel was an important contributor to the recent food-price inflation of 2001–2008, its effect on food-commodity prices declined after the recession of 2008/09. We also show that the introduction of cross-price elasticity is important when explaining soybean price, but less so when explaining corn prices.

  4. Commodity Price Volatility: Causes, Effects and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Mugera, Harriet Kasidi

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural commodities experienced substantial increases in prices over the most recent decade with major surges in both 2007-08 and again in 2010-11. These price movements coincided with sharp rises in energy prices, in particular crude oil. Sharp increases in agricultural prices were not uncommon, but it is the short period between the recent two price surges that has drawn concerns and raised questions. What were the causes of the increase in world agricultural prices and what are the pr...

  5. Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhlouf, Yousef; Kellard, Neil M; Vinogradov, Dmitri

    2017-04-01

    Given many developing economies depend on primary commodities, the fluctuations of commodity prices may imply significant effects for the wellbeing of children. To investigate, this paper examines the relationship between child mortality and commodity price movements as reflected by country-specific commodity terms-of-trade. Employing a panel of 69 low and lower-middle income countries over the period 1970-2010, we show that commodity terms-of-trade volatility increases child mortality in highly commodity-dependent importers suggesting a type of 'scarce' resource curse. Strikingly however, good institutions appear able to mitigate the negative impact of volatility. The paper concludes by highlighting this tripartite relationship between child mortality, volatility and good institutions and posits that an effective approach to improving child wellbeing in low to lower-middle income countries will combine hedging, import diversification and improvement of institutional quality. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. An analysis of the role of financialisation, China and stockholding in agricultural commodity price movements

    OpenAIRE

    Pfuderer, Simone

    2014-01-01

    A wide range of commodity prices experienced a large peak in 2007/08, including many agricultural commodities. Since then agricultural commodity prices have remained at relatively high levels compared to the recent past and several agricultural commodities (e.g. maize and sugar) have experienced further, although smaller peaks. Studies of the recent commodity price movements have focused on financialisation, China, low stocks and biofuels. This thesis explores the role of three of these facto...

  7. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  8. Price Volatility of Main Food Commodity in Banyumas Regency Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmi Hayati Putri

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural product is commodity which tends to fluctuate. Price volatility is caused by the change of agricultural production due to climate change as well as pest and disease. Furthermore, it is also caused by the change of agricultural land and high demand of agricultural products on religious holidays. This study was conducted to examine how volatile some of main food commodities in Banyumas Regency. Secondary data analysis method with quantitative approach was used in this research. Time series data of some food commodity prices (rice IR 64, local soybean, maize, chili red peppers, onion and garlic from January 2008 – December 2013 were utilized. The coefficient of variation was calculated to determine price volatility. The result showed that the price of red chili pepper, onion and garlic was tending to volatile. The coefficient of variation ratio of those commodities was about 20% - 35%. While the price of rice, local soybean and maize was stable. The coefficient of variation ratio of those commodities was less than 9%. This study also includes some policies that can be suggested to prevent price volatility.

  9. Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Liu, Ruipeng [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia)

    2011-01-15

    This paper considers the issue of whether shocks to ten commodity prices (gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, iron ore, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc) are persistent or transitory. We use two recently developed unit root tests, namely the Narayan and Popp (NP) test and the Liu and Narayan (LN) test. Both tests allow for two structural breaks in the data series. Using the NP test, we are able to reject the unit root null for iron ore and tin. Using the GARCH-based unit root test of LN, we are able to reject the unit root null for five commodity prices (iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin). Our findings, thus, suggest that only shocks to gold, silver, platinum, aluminum, and copper are persistent. (author)

  10. Agricultural commodity prices and oil prices: mutual causation

    OpenAIRE

    McFarlane, Ian

    2016-01-01

    The world market price of many commodities including US corn (maize) peaked sharply in 2008. The US Energy Policy Act (2005) led to a rapid rise in demand for corn ethanol as a partial substitute for gasoline in the USA. In this paper we report analysis of weekly prices of corn, wheat, sugar and crude oil, together with monthly series derived from those and other weekly prices, for two consecutive seven year periods: 1999-2005 and 2006-2012. We find strong evidence of cointegration between pr...

  11. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... prices and if the latter are exogenous to the exchange rate dynamics. In our view, however, commodity prices are essentially financial asset prices that are set in a forward-looking way, exactly like exchange rates. If both the exchange rate and the commodity prices are based on discounted future...

  12. Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... limit the number of parameters to calibrate. We introduce a new, maturity-wise calibration method compatible with this modeling methodology. Fourth, we use actual data on inventories rather than a proxy. Fifth, our model is very exible and allows for testing several dierent types of relationships...

  13. Shadow Prices of Selected Agricultural Commodities – The Czech Case

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patrik Sieber; Karina Pohlová; Ondřej Chaloupka

    2016-01-01

    ... commodities using available statistical data. More specifically, we try to analyse for which commodities secondary data sets are available from which we may deduce the estimates of shadow price ratios, then to estimate SPRs for selected...

  14. Real Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices in a Neoclassical Model

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    1988-01-01

    This paper represents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a decline in relative commodity prices. The structural model is estimated and its forecasting performance is compared to a variety of models. We fin...

  15. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazlioglu, Saban, E-mail: snazlioglu@pau.edu.t [Department of Econometrics, Pamukkale University, Denizli (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: {yields} This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). {yields} The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. {yields} The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. {yields} The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  16. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Disentangling the Evidence for Individual Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Arteaga Cabrales

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the effect of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. While most of the literature has found that expansionary shocks have a positive effect on aggregate price indices, we study the effect on individual prices of a sample of four commodities. This set of commodity prices is essential to understand the dynamics of the balance of payments in Colombia. The analysis is based on structural VAR models; we identify monetary policy shocks following Kim (1999, 2003 upon quarterly data for commodity prices and their fundamentals for the period from 1980q1 to 2010q3. Our results show that commodity prices overshoot their long run equilibrium in response to a contractionary shock in the US monetary policy and, in contrast with literature, the response of the individual prices considered is stronger than what has been found in aggregate indices. Additionally, it is found that the monetary policy explains a substantial share of the fluctuations in prices.

  17. Shadow Prices of Selected Agricultural Commodities – The Czech Case

    OpenAIRE

    Patrik Sieber; Karina Pohlová; Ondřej Chaloupka

    2016-01-01

    The main objective of the paper is to contribute to practical applicability of the CBA in the agricultural sector by exploring the chances to estimate Czech social values of selected agricultural commodities using available statistical data. More specifically, we try to analyse for which commodities secondary data sets are available from which we may deduce the estimates of shadow price ratios, then to estimate SPRs for selected agricultural commodities and to analyse and discuss the ap...

  18. On the market value of information commodities. III. Demand price

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mowshowitz, A. (Abbe)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractThe derived‐demand price of an information commodity depends on the commodity's cost impact on a user's production process. We model an arbitrary production process as a collection of interrelated tasks which can be represented in the form of a production digraph. The nodes of the digrap

  19. Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, A; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.; Chatterjee, Arnab

    2006-01-01

    We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: Gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution for a market with agents having random saving propensity.

  20. Food commodity price volatility and food insecurity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alexander Sarris

    2013-01-01

      The paper first reviews several issues relevant to global food commodity market volatility as it pertains to food security, and food importing developing countries, and then discusses international...

  1. Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trujillo Barrera, A.A.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Is the relationship between energy and agricultural commodities an important factor in the increasing price variability of food commodities? Findings from the literature appear to be mixed and highly influenced by the data frequency used in those analysis. A recurrent task in time series

  2. Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trujillo Barrera, A.A.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Is the relationship between energy and agricultural commodities an important factor in the increasing price variability of food commodities? Findings from the literature appear to be mixed and highly influenced by the data frequency used in those analysis. A recurrent task in time series ap

  3. Statistical microeconomics and commodity prices: theory and empirical results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E

    2016-01-13

    A review is made of the statistical generalization of microeconomics by Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is given by the unequal time correlation function and is modelled by the Feynman path integral based on an action functional. The correlation functions of the model are defined using the path integral. The existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)) has been empirically ascertained in Baaquie et al. (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). The model's action functionals for different commodities has been empirically determined and calibrated using the unequal time correlation functions of the market commodity prices using a perturbation expansion (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are empirically studied and their auto-correlation for up to 300 days is described by the model to an accuracy of R(2)>0.90-using only six parameters.

  4. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats’ Choices between Differently Priced Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers’ sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget

  5. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wingerden, Marijn; Marx, Christine; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget conditions

  6. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijn van Wingerden

    Full Text Available Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to

  7. Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Shocks on International Commodity Prices: Emphasis on Price and Exchange Rate Pass-through Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Won Joong Kim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a structural VAR with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, U.S. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate; and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity groups. By assuming the block exogeneity of U.S. macroeconomic variables with respect to the international nonfuel commodity prices, the paper discusses how exogenous oil/macroeconomic shocks affect the international commodity prices. It finally explores which oil/macroeconomic shocks are important in explaining the variations in international commodity prices. The results show that the sources of major fluctuations in the international commodities differ greatly by commodity. Soft and hard commodity prices such as those of ‘seafood’, ‘industrial metals’, and ‘gold’ seem to be strongly affected by the financial factor. Moreover, for some commodities, price fluctuations are more affected by the financial factor than by the real factor, supporting the view of “financialization” of commodities. Those commodities include ‘vegetable oils and protein meals’, ‘meat’, ‘seafood’, and ‘industrial metals’. The financial factor is also an important source of fluctuations in the oil prices. Oil price shocks have effects on the volatilities of interest rates, money supply, and general price level instantly, as well as on the exchange rate instead of the general price two years after the shock. Over the whole forecasting horizon, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is low on the general price level but is positive and high on oil and nonfuel international commodity prices

  8. Pricing European options on agriculture commodity prices using mean-reversion model with jump diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmawan, Komang

    2017-03-01

    It has been claimed in many literatures that the prices of some agriculture commodities tend to follow mean reversion. However, when dealing with the prices of agriculture commodities, is mean-reversion realistic enough without incorporating seasonality and jump diffusion? This research tries to answer the question. The combination between mean-reversion feature, jump and seasonal components are applied to model the behavior of agriculture commodity prices. A jump and seasonal components are added to the standard mean-reverting process in order to reproduce the spiky or jump behaviors. This model has been well applied on simulating the electricity prices but it has not been applied to investigate the behavior of agriculture commodity prices yet. This paper discusses the performance of the model when it is used to price European call options. First, the deterministic seasonality part is calibrated using the least square method. The second stage is to calibrate the stochastic part based on historical prices. The parameters are calibrated by discretizing the model. Hence, the discretized model allows us to perform Monte Carlo simulation on the commodity price under real-word probability. The analysis is conducted using 2 future price of Crude Palm Oil and Coffee Bean on standard payoff functions, a Basket, a Spread, Best of Call, and Worst of Call Options.

  9. Market Structure and Price Transmission of Eggs Commodity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Aziz Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Purposes of this research are to determine some characteristics of distribution channel, market structure, and price maker transmission in purebred chicken egg commodity in Banyumas District, Central Java Province. Primary data applied on this research is from all channel distribution levels; from producers to final consumers. Meanwhile secondary data is collected from government official sources, such as BPS-Statistic of Banyumas Disrict, Banyumas Department of Industry, Trading and Cooperation, and previous researches which has been made by researcher team. Sample determining is directed by proportional random sampling methods. Some measurements are applied to this research, including to; Herfindahl Index (HI, Concentration Ratio (CF, and Minimum Efficiency Scale (MES to investigate market structure; and Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT to determine price transmission mechanism model. This research finds that (1 the distribution channel of egg commodity is spitted to different channel, the first channel: egg producer – retail traders – final consumers, and second channel: egg producers – whole seller – retail traders – final consumers; (2 market structure which is created to this farming specific commodity is perfect market; (3 price transmission mechanism analysis statistically shows that there is almost no existence of dominant power in price formation.

  10. Shadow Prices of Selected Agricultural Commodities – The Czech Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Sieber

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the paper is to contribute to practical applicability of the CBA in the agricultural sector by exploring the chances to estimate Czech social values of selected agricultural commodities using available statistical data. More specifically, we try to analyse for which commodities secondary data sets are available from which we may deduce the estimates of shadow price ratios, then to estimate SPRs for selected agricultural commodities and to analyse and discuss the applicability of such estimates in practical appraisal with respect to theoretically ideal measures and resulting available measures as well as with respect to the situation in which the CBA analyst typically is. We selected the following commodities: poultry, pigs, bulls, milk, rapeseed, maize, barley and wheat as items more suitable for SPR estimates mostly because of the data availability and the internal homogeneity of the items, which was closer to the theoretically required values than for other commodities. Under additional simplifying assumptions, we estimated SPR proxies for the particular commodities and finally summarized the pros and cons for application of SPR alternatives.

  11. Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices : Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons

    OpenAIRE

    Hui Jun ZHANG; Dufour, Jean-Marie; Galbraith, John W.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding and measuring the relative roles of different causal channels between commodity prices and exchange rates has important implications in financial decision making, especially for market participants with short horizons. From a macroeconomic perspective, this can also be useful for interpreting exchange rate movements, financial market monitoring and monetary policy. Basic economic reasoning on currency demand suggests that the currencies of countries whose exports depend heavily ...

  12. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  13. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector autoregr...... indicates that rising food prices (of little-traded crops) on world markets will not have a direct effect on food prices in Uganda....... price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining...... factor for price transmission within the country. However, the case is a bit different for the cash crop, Robusta coffee. In the period in the 1990’s with high coffee prices on the world market, prices in Uganda were strongly connected to world prices, and did not depend on the oil price. This indicates...

  14. Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Burakov

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate long and short-term impact of changes in oil prices and the exchange rate on prices of seven groups of agricultural products in Russia (buckwheat, grain crops, potatoes, oat, wheat, rye, barley. In this paper, Granger causality approach is applied to test long-run interlinkages with monthly data from January 1999 to October 2015. For testing the response of agricultural prices to sudden shocks in oil prices and exchange rate in the short run, we use impulse-response techniques. The results of impulse response analysis show that agricultural prices are not particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices and the exchange rate of Russian ruble in the short term, except for imported commodities. In the long run, Granger causal relationship between agricultural prices and oil prices is missing, and with exchange rate is observed only in case of imported agricultural goods.

  15. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moutinho, Victor, E-mail: vmoutinho@ua.pt [Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus universitario de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Vieira, Joel, E-mail: jmv@ua.pt [Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus universitario de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Carrizo Moreira, Antonio, E-mail: amoreira@ua.pt [Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, GOVCOPP, University of Aveiro, Campus universitario de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal)

    2011-10-15

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: > We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. > We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. > We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. > We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. > The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  16. Measuring the Influence of Commodity Fund Trading on Soybean Price Discovery

    OpenAIRE

    Plato, Gerald E.; Hoffman, Linwood A.

    2007-01-01

    The increase in commodity fund trading in the agricultural commodity futures markets has raised concern that this trading is degrading the price discovery performance of these markets. We used the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition procedure to estimate the price discovery performance of the soybean futures and spot markets. We found that the price discovery performance of the soybean futures market has improved along with the increased commodity fund trading. Our results indicated that a portion...

  17. 22 CFR 201.68 - Maximum prices for commodity-related services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... 201.68 Section 201.68 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES AND PROCEDURES APPLICABLE TO COMMODITY TRANSACTIONS FINANCED BY USAID Price Provisions § 201.68 Maximum prices for commodity... each such service is eligible for USAID-financing under § 201.67 or § 201.68(a) of this part....

  18. Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xolani Ndlovu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

  19. Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclu...

  20. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export pr...

  1. Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borychowski Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclusions to some extent is a synthesis of considerations and includes the authors’ opinions concerning determinants and an attempt to identify which ones were the most important in the growth of agricultural commodity prices. These increases in agricultural commodity prices resulted from many factors and it is very difficult to separate the individual impact of each of them, because they occurred in parallel. However, it is possible to indicate several main reasons for these price increases, which are: adverse changes in supply-demand relations in agricultural markets, increases in oil prices (and increases of the volatility of those prices, development of biofuel production from agricultural commodities (the first generation biofuels, dollar depreciation, an increase in operations of a speculative nature on commodity markets and improper economic policy that created an environment for the growth of prices of agricultural products.

  2. On the Concept of Information Commodity Price and Its Formation Mechanism%论信息商品价格概念及其形成机制

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴宏亮

    2001-01-01

    The concept of information commodity price is expounded. The basis for fixing the price of information commodity and its impact factors are elaborated. Finally, the paper discusses the goal, tactics and methods of fixing the information commodity price.

  3. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector...

  4. On the market value of information commodities. II. Supply price

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mowshowitz, A. (Abbe)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractInformation commodities make use of storage, processing, and communication capabilities in varying degrees to acquire market value. We have identified five major value‐adding dimensions of information commodities: (1) kernel; (2) storage; (3) processing; (4) distribution; and (5)

  5. Inventories and Commodity Price Volatility: A Test of the Theory of Storage

    OpenAIRE

    Toyne, Chris

    2002-01-01

    The theory of storage implies that commodity price volatility is inversely related to inventories, and that as inventories decline, spot prices become relatively more volatile than futures prices, and vice versa. These implications are directly tested using inventory and price data for six non-ferrous metals traded on the London Metal Exchange over the period 1989 to 2000. The conditional variances are specified as multiplicative heteroskedasticity models. For four of the metals, the observed...

  6. Impacts of Retailers’ Pricing Strategies for Produce Commodities on Farmer Welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Chenguang; Sexton, Richard J.

    2009-01-01

    The typical model of retail pricing for produce products assumes retailers set price equal to the farm price plus a certain markup. However, observations from scanner data indicate a large degree of price dispersion in the grocery retailing market. In addition to markup pricing behavior, we document three alternative leading pricing patterns: fixed (constant) pricing, periodic sale, and high-low pricing. Retail price variations under these alternative pricing regimes in general have little co...

  7. Global commodity chains, financial markets, and local market structures: Price risks in the coffee sector in Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Tröster, Bernhard; Staritz, Cornelia

    2015-01-01

    Risks related to commodity price volatility are a major thread to actors in commodity chains, particularly to smallholder farmers in low income countries. Therefore, price setting and transmission within global commodity chains are of crucial importance from a developmental and distributional perspective. With the end of global price stabilization mechanisms in the 1980s, financial derivative markets have taken over the central role in price discovery and risk management. This is also true fo...

  8. Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

  9. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  10. Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

    2015-05-01

    Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

  11. Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Addison, Tony; Ghoshray, Atanu

    2014-01-01

    Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we define an auxiliary variable that can potentially capture the definition of a price shock that allows us to determine whether the response of per capita Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in sub-Sahara...

  12. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  13. THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Lascsáková

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

  14. Application of Derivatives Market for Controlling Risks of Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasuolė Drazdauskienė

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The issue of raw milk procurement cost level and fluctuation which inhibits strengthening negotiating positions of dairy product fabricants and probability of them staying competitive in the European Union, is examined. Scientific literature that analyzes risks of staple prices is overviewed in the article. The paper provides statistical data representing the situation of Lithuania in contrast with European Union rates. Global usage of prospective transactions and their possible influence on price regulation are analyzed. After examining statistical data and academic literature, conclusions are provided.

  15. 22 CFR 201.63 - Maximum prices for commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...-financing under the foregoing provisions of this § 201.63: plus (ii) Transportation cost calculated on the... the time of purchase, adjusted for differences in the transportation cost: Provided, however, That if there are no such comparable export sales, then the purchase price, excluding transportation cost, may...

  16. Military and Private Sector Commodity Outlets: A Retail Price Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-02-01

    89 6. Del Monte Bananas, 1 lb. .34 .49 7. Sunkist Oranges , 1 lb. .37 .56 8. Minute Maid Frozen Lemon Juice, 6 fl. oz. .25 .41 9. Red Delicious Apples...continued Prices Iter Commissary Safeway 47. Marlboro Cigarettes, Carton 5.28 7.99 48. Carnation Evaporated Milk, Canned, 13 fl. oz. .46 .47 49. Gerber...1 lb. .90 1.29 80. Jimmy Dean Pork Sausage, 16 oz. 1.53 2.49 81. Minute Maid Frozen Orange Juice, 12 f!. oz. .97 .99 TOTAL $114.70 $152.23 1. Sale

  17. 22 CFR 201.64 - Application of the price rules to commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... export freight), and other necessary costs customary in the trade. (b) Calculation of commodity prices... cooperating country has passed through a free port or bonded warehouse, USAID will finance no more than the...) When a shipment is f.o.b. or f.a.s. a free port or bonded warehouse, USAID will finance no more...

  18. Evaluation of the impact of commodity price change on mine plan of underground mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Salama Abubakary; Nehring Micah; Greberg Jenny

    2015-01-01

    Fluctuations in commodity prices should influence mining operations to continually update and adjust their mine plans in order to capture additional value under new market conditions. One of the adjust-ments is the change in production sequencing. This paper seeks to present a method for quantifying the net present value (NPV) that may be directly attributed to the change in commodity prices. The evaluation is conducted across ten copper price scenarios. Discrete event simulation combined with mixed integer programming was used to attain a viable production strategy and to generate optimal mine plans. The analysis indicates that an increase in prices results in an increased in the NPV from$96.57M to $755.65M. In an environment where mining operations must be striving to gain as much value as possible from the rights to exploit a finite resource, it is not appropriate to keep operating under the same mine plan if commodity prices alter during the course of operations.

  19. Structural Breaks and the Relationship Between Soybean and Corn Futures Prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rufang; Du, Yonghong; Wang, Jian

    Co-movement between futures prices can arise when commodities are substitutes. Using Johansen's co-integration procedure, we fail to find a significant long-run link between soybean and corn prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange of China. This relationship is re-examined using Johansen's co-integration procedure that permits structural breaks. Results show evidence of co-integration and hence price discovery. There is a significant break in July 2007 by reason of rare drought in China's main soybean producing areas. The soybean-corn futures market is perfectly integrated, and the soybean price Granger-causes the corn price. Modeling structural breaks in price relationships appears important.

  20. Financialization, price risks, and global commodity chains: Distributional implications on cotton sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Staritz, Cornelia; Newman, Susan; Tröster, Bernhard; Plank, Leonhard

    2015-01-01

    The functioning of commodity markets has changed related to processes of financialization that involve two major developments - the rise of financial interest on commodity derivative markets through the increasing presence of financial investors and the changing business models of international commodity trading houses and the increasing importance of these markets in price setting and risk management since the liberalization of national commodity sectors. A critical question is how these glo...

  1. The Relationships between Commodity Prices, Firm Performance and Stock Valuation: An Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    The study estimates the commodity prices and firm performance risk exposures of the Malaysian and Singaporean plantation and other related commodities’ sectors, using the Ohlson (1995)’s, Easton and Harris (1991)’s and other related asset prices together with return models augmented with accounting factors. Results show that the firm performance factors affect significantly and strongly stock valuation. However, the commodity prices affect determinants of firm performance and stock valuation ...

  2. Solving Optimal Pricing Model for Perishable Commodities with Imperialist Competitive Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo-Wen Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The pricing problem for perishable commodities is important in manufacturing enterprise. In this study, a new model based on the profit maximization principle and a discrete demand function which is a negative binomial demand distribution is proposed. This model is used to find out the best combination for price and discount price. The computational results show that the optimal discount price equals the cost of the product. Because the demand functions which involves several different distributions is so complex that the model is hard to solve with normal numerical method. Thus we combine the model with exterior penalty function and applied a novel evolution algorithm-Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA to solve the problem. Particle Swarm algorithm (PSO is also applied to solve the problem for comparison. The result shows that ICA has higher convergence rate and execution speed.

  3. International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George A. Thopila

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

  4. On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelstein, Paul S.

    Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures

  5. Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

  6. International Commodity Markets, Local Food Prices and Environment in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.; Hintermann, B.; Higgins, N.

    2008-12-01

    The recent massive increase in food and energy prices in the past five years, coupled with the awareness of the long term challenges of climate change to small holder agriculture in Africa has brought the issue of food security for the world's poorest people to the forefront once again. Asymmetric and limited integration of local commodity markets in West Africa highlights the weak position of Africa's rural countries in the face of climate change and demographic expansion. This paper will describe the functioning of local informal food markets in West African over the past twenty years and evaluate the impact of their limited integration with each other and with global commodity markets. Satellite remote sensing of vegetation has been used as a proxy for agricultural production in economic models to improve prediction of large swings in prices from year to year due to differences in supply. As demand increases, improvements in market functioning will be necessary to counter likely increases in production variability. Increasing Africa's stability in the face of climate change will require investment in agricultural production and transportation infrastructure in order to ensure an affordable flow of food to people in these extremely poor, landlocked countries.

  7. Prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels in long-run relationships: a comparative study for the USA and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Tanja; Bentzen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Time-series data for the USA and Europe representing prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels are used for a comparative analysis of long-run price relationships. There is some evidence for cointegration between ethanol and gasoline, especially for the USA, and in the case of...... of biodiesel, stronger evidence of cointegration between biodiesel, diesel and soya oil for both the USA and Europe. Finally, biofuel prices do not seem to influence agricultural commodity prices or fossil fuel prices....

  8. Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Ferhat I.

    My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

  9. Price Dispersion on the Internet: Empirical Comparison of Several Commodities from the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Sedláček

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The first large scale (almost 500 products, 64,300 individual price listings empirical study of price dispersion based on the data from the Czech Republic’s e‑shops is presented in the paper. First, simple descriptive indicators like average, max, min, median and standard deviation were calculated for each product. Second, several versions of linear regression models were constructed for each of 10 product categories and evaluated against hypotheses.The price dispersion (measured as a price range or by the standard deviation method was regressed against its mean market price and number of e-shops. At least one regression model is significant for each product category. For the majority of categories R2 is high or very high (the mean market price variable accounts for 86% to 96.7% in the price dispersion or at least medium (61.5% or 69%. Some other findings and the important role of pricebots for e-shop owners and marketing managers are also discussed.

  10. Fiscal policy, the real exchange rate and commodity prices: A global framework

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    1990-01-01

    The role of the international commodity market in transmitting disturbances is considered in a model that incorporates commodities as an input in production. The analysis employs a three-country framework: a liquidity-constrained commodity supplier and two industrial countries that import the commodity, export differentiated manufactured goods and hold the outstanding debt of the commodity exporter. In this setting the impact of changes in fiscal policy, commodity supplies, and the real inter...

  11. Discussion on the Nationality of Commodity House Price%商品房价格合理性探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王珊珊; 王安民

    2015-01-01

    Commodity house price is not only the economic issues but the well-being of the people related to the social harmony and stability. Based on the current status of the housing price now in China, this paper leads to the fact that commodity house is not only a commodity but also a kind of investment. Then it analyses the formation reasons of commodity house price bubbles. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions aimed at the housing price problems.%本文从我国现在商品房价格现状入手,引出商品房不仅仅是一种商品,更是一种投资品。然后分析了我国商品房价格泡沫形成的原因,最后针对存在的问题,提出了解决商品房价格问题的几点意见。

  12. Commodities, Prices and Risk: the changing market for non-slave products in pre-abolition in West Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalrymple-Smith, A.E.; Woltjer, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    Using a newly constructed dataset on the quantities and prices of African commodities over the long 18th century this paper provides new insights into the changing nature of the non-slave trade with West Africa in the era before the abolition of the British transatlantic slave trade. We find that pr

  13. SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE’S RECENT QUANTITATIVE EASING ON CANADIAN COMMODITY PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Saghaian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the spillover effects of the recent U.S. Federal Reserve’s purchase of longterm assets (quantitative easing on prices of Canadian commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases happened after the Great Recession, at the end of 2008, and the second purchases were in November of 2010. Since the U.S. is a large country, those policies have international spillover effects, particularly on Canada, a major economic partner. The commodities included in this analysis are Canadian livestock (cattle, hogs, and poultry, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, and wheat, softs (sugar, coffee, and cocoa, and energy (crude oil and natural gas. Using historical decomposition graphs, we find significant spillover effects on the Canadian commodity prices under investigation in the immediate neighborhood (seven-month horizon of the large-scale asset purchases, especially the second round of quantitative easing.

  14. THE IMPACT OF THE RECENT FEDERAL RESERVE LARGESCALE ASSET PURCHASES ON THE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES: A HISTORICAL DECOMPOSITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed H. Saghaian

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the effects of the recent Federal Reserve’s purchases of longterm assets on prices of agricultural commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases began at the end of 2008, after the Great Recession, and the second purchases began in November of 2010. The commodities included in this analysis are meats (beef, pork, and broilers, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice, and softs (sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton. Using historical decompositions, we find significant increases in the nominal agricultural prices of ten out of 12 agricultural commodities under investigation from the second large-scale asset purchases (in 2010 but the first set large-scale asset purchases had only two positive effects.

  15. Financialization, price risks, and global commodity\\ud chains: Distributional implications on cotton sectors\\ud in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Staritz, C.; Newman, S.; Tröster, B.; Plank, L

    2015-01-01

    The functioning of commodity markets has changed related to processes of financialization that involve two major developments – the rise of financial interest on commodity derivative markets through the increasing presence of financial investors and the changing business models of international commodity trading houses and the increasing importance of these markets in price setting and risk management since the liberalization of national commodity sectors. A critical question is how these glo...

  16. Building and managing high performance, scalable, commodity mass storage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekashman, John

    1998-01-01

    The NAS Systems Division has recently embarked on a significant new way of handling the mass storage problem. One of the basic goals of this new development are to build systems at very large capacity and high performance, yet have the advantages of commodity products. The central design philosophy is to build storage systems the way the Internet was built. Competitive, survivable, expandable, and wide open. The thrust of this paper is to describe the motivation for this effort, what we mean by commodity mass storage, what the implications are for a facility that performs such an action, and where we think it will lead.

  17. Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Revoredo-Giha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. The paper analyses the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling and the Chicago Board of Trade’s wheat contract as a comparison. Although the main purpose of the paper is to analyse whether futures markets are still useful for hedging (considering the demands from different market participants, implicitly this can be seen as testing whether the increasing presence of speculation has made futures markets divorced from physical markets. The results indicate that hedging with futures markets is still a viable alternative for dealing with price risk. This is particularly true in short period hedges (e.g. merchants and processors, where the basis seems to have been affected by the observed price instability.

  18. Empirical research on spatial and time series properties of agricultural commodity prices

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xing,

    2012-01-01

    The integration of European agriculture into the world economy has also accelerated price interaction between member states and the rest of the world during last decades. Consequently, the fluctuation in world market prices was more quickly transmitted to European member states, including Finland. Increasing price uncertainty and price volatility in agricultural products became more evident. The openness of regional agriculture such as EU and Finnish to the world is irreversible, and the int...

  19. Oil prices are still too high

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tussing, A.R.

    1985-01-01

    Despite logical premises than the constant-dollar price of oil will surpass and sustain all-time peaks, there is empirical evidence that the Malthus-Hotelling vision does not describe what really happens to production, consumption, and prices of natural resource commodities. Neither oil nor any important internationally traded commodity has ever shown a sustained upward price trend lasting more than a couple of decades. The payoff is just beginning on the investments, both in hardware and in sophistication, that society made over the last decade to conserve energy. The buyer's market in crude oil should continue for a number of years because these investments are reducing demand, making demand more flexible, and making supply more competitive.

  20. Land use changes after the period commodities rising price in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Celestino Pires Silveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: At the end of the 20th and early 21st century, agricultural systems incorporated definitively a new mission: to generate goods for a world population that continues to grow and whose way of life demand food with low environmental impact. Soybean is the main raw material for the production of biodiesel in Brazil, accountably responsible for 82.4% of the total produced between 2006 and 2013. The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, which is formed by the Pampa and the Atlantic forest biomes, was responsible for 35.7% of the country's biodiesel production in the referred period. The aim of this paper was to verify the impact of the increased area of soybean cultivation in land use in Rio Grande do Sul State, in the period between 1990 and 2015, considering separately its two biomes (Pampa and Atlantic Forest original areas, using both census dataset and satellite images. We used the period from 1990 to 2000 as before commodity rising price (BCRP and the period from 2000 to 2013 as commodity rising price (CRP. The 505,162 ha from Atlantic Forest biome and 1,192,115ha from Pampa biome were added to soybean production in the CRP period. In the Atlantic Forest, this enlargement occurred in the border of the main production area, while in Pampa biome conversion of natural grassland to crop land was the main reason for the large increment in the cultivated area.

  1. High Drug Prices Hurt Everyone

    OpenAIRE

    Halpenny, Genevieve M.

    2016-01-01

    Turing Pharmaceuticals raised the price of Daraprim 5,500%, illustrating how the absence of competition in the sale of low-volume, low-price drugs can lead to price gouging. For patented medicines, society allows supracompetitive pricing to incentivize innovation. However, Gilead���s decision to sell Sovaldi for $84,000 per course of treatment raised the question whether society must accept any price set by the patent holder. Unfortunately, these incidents illustrate a br...

  2. Preços de commodities e nível de atividade em uma pequena economia aberta: evidências empíricas para o estado do Espírito Santo Commodity prices and activity level in a small open economy: empirical evidence for the State of Espírito Santo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães

    2011-12-01

    's economy compared to the national economy and other Brazilian states will also be measured. The results obtained reveal five distinct empirical patterns: (i given the state's high degree of openness, the impacts of commodity price fluctuations tend to be stronger when compared to Brazil and other Brazilian States; (ii Granger-causality test results show that commodity prices precede output levels both in the case of the State and the country; (iii a similar result occurs when a broad set of economic variables related to the State of Espírito Santo are considered; (iv a positive shock to commodity prices causes output to initially rise , followed by a contraction, with this variable displaying a permanently higher level in the long run; (v variance decomposition results show that, on average, the quantitative impacts of commodity price shocks are larger in the case of the State than the country. The results obtained are robust with regards to several specification issues, such as different stationary transformations of data, as well as distinct number of lags employed in Granger-causality tests. These results are important in the sense of providing a better understanding of the effects of commodity price variations on a small, open economy, as seems to be the case for the State of Espírito Santo.

  3. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

    In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional integr...

  4. Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Cashin; Luis Felipe Céspedes; Ratna Sahay

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity-exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time. Using IMF data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares, we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 commodity-exporting countries over 1980-2002. Evidence of a longrun relationship between national real exchange rate and real commodity prices is found for about onethird of...

  5. Near-zero U.S. Interest Rates, Primary Commodity Prices, and Financial Control in Emerging Markets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RONALD; I.; MCKINNON

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inward on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies in the rest of the world. But this makes the U.S. economy less stable. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into emerging markets by carry traders that generate bubbles in international primary commodity prices and other assets. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a reflux of the hot money. Ironically, these near-zero interest rates hold back investment in the American economy itself.

  6. Recent developments in marketing and pricing systems for agricultural export commodities in sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Varangis, Panos; Takamasa AKIYAMA; Thigpen, Elton

    1990-01-01

    This paper documents the difficulties various countries in sub - Saharan Africa have had with marketing and pricing systems, and shows how these systems have been caused or exacerbated by government controls. It documents the steps several countries have taken toward relaxing those controls and allowing more participation by private enterprise. Some general conclusions are drawn about the kinds of changes in parastatal marketing organizations that most effectively improve their ability to mar...

  7. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an

  8. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an i

  9. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an i

  10. Organic Chemicals Remain High Prices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ Phenol In early April 2007, China's phenol price remained bullish, and with the restart of phenol/acetone units in Sinopec Beijing Yanhua Petrochemical being ahead of schedule, there were few trading actions in the market, and the price of phenol dropped considerably afterwards.

  11. Lattice QCD with commodity hardware and software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, D.J. [and others

    2000-01-25

    Large scale QCD Monte Carlo calculations have typically been performed on either commercial supercomputers or specially built massively parallel computers such as Fermilab's ACPMAPS. Commodity computer systems offer impressive floating point performance-to-cost ratios which exceed those of commercial supercomputers. As high performance networking components approach commodity pricing, it becomes reasonable to assemble a massively parallel supercomputer from commodity parts. The authors describe the work and progress to date of a collaboration working on this problem.

  12. Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

    2011-01-01

    Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

  13. The Impact of Market Reform Programmes on Coffee Prices in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To mitigate these problems there is a need to: improve coffee quality through harnessing the ... possible through commodity agreements adapted to stabilize prices of ... during this period and it resulted into low prices as well as high price ...

  14. Changes in the Relationship between Currencies and Commodities

    OpenAIRE

    Haruko Kato

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between so-called commodity currencies and commodity prices in recent years. Commodity prices have fluctuated significantly during this time period. Commodity currencies -- the currencies of large commodity exporters such as Australia, Canada, Chile, and South Africa -- have experienced large swings together with commodity prices. The paper identifies the basis of the co-movements between commodity currencies and commodity prices, and checks the statistica...

  15. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  16. Logistics: Price Rises Incurred by High Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai Zhihui

    2011-01-01

    @@ "When the oil price grows by 100%, the logistic indus-try will see a price growth of 40%, while the logistics in-dustry a price rise of 35%, which means every price increase of 5% in the oil price will bring along that of 2% in this industry." said Liu Zongsheng, General Manager of Itochu Logistics Co., Ltd., on the seminar "Focusing on the eco-nomic consequences of raising oil price, interest rate and deposit reserve ratio", which was held recently.

  17. The High Price of Noise Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Issues Hearing Disorders The High Price of Noise Exposure Past Issues / Fall 2008 Table of Contents For ... on both loudness and time—the longer the exposure, the more likely the damage. In addition, the ...

  18. 国际大宗商品价格波动的中国因素探讨%On Chinaese Influencing Factors of International Commodity Price Fluctuation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王皓; 朱明侠

    2016-01-01

    国际大宗商品价格的持续上涨加剧了全球通货膨胀压力,而随着中国经济发展和地位提升,中国因素被认为是推动国际大宗商品价格上涨的重要原因。借鉴国外学者的FAVAR模型,采用多变量建立较为完整的宏观经济模型,研究结果表明:第一,中国需求的增加对国际大宗商品价格的上涨具有显著作用;第二,中国利率、人民币对美元汇率的上升会在短期内抑制国际大宗商品价格的上涨;第三,人民币汇率和利率虽然都会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响,但利率的作用效果要弱于汇率。因此,应尽快促进利率市场化,鼓励企业走出去,并加快推进产业结构调整,从而实现经济的持续健康发展。%The rise of international commodity price increases the pressure of global inflation;and with the economic development of China and the improvement of China’s position,Chinese factors have become the most important cause for the rise of international commodity price. With the help of FAVAR model,the authors carry out the related study on this by establishing a comprehensive macro economic model based on multi-variables. It is found that:first,the increase of Chinese demand has significant impact on the rise of international commodity price;second,the rise of China’s interest rate and the exchange rate of RMB to US dollars will restrain the rise of international commodity price in the short term;and third,the interest rate and exchange rate of RMB will both have significant impact on the price of international commodity,and the impact of interest rate will weaker than that of the exchange rate. So,we should accelerate interest rate liberalization,encourage the enterprises to go out,and accelerate industrial restructuring to realize the sustainable and healthy economic development.

  19. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): the natural gas becoming a world commodity and creating international price references; GNL (Gas Natural Liquefeito): o gas natural se tornando uma commodity mundial e criando referencias de preco internacionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demori, Marcio Bastos [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Comercializacao de Gas e GNL; Santos, Edmilson Moutinho dos [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia. Programa Interunidades de Pos-Graduacao em Energia (PIPGE)

    2004-07-01

    The transportation of large quantities of natural gas through long distances has been done more frequently by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The increase of natural gas demand and the distance of major reserves, allied to technological improvements and cost reduction through LNG supply chain, have triggered the expressive increase of LNG world market This paper tries to evaluate the influence that LNG should cause on natural gas world market dynamic, analyzing the tendency of gas to become a world commodity, creating international price references, like oil and its derivates. For this, are shown data as natural gas world reserves, the participation of LNG in natural gas world market and their increase. Furthermore, will be analyzed the interaction between major natural gas reserves and their access to major markets, still considering scheduled LNG projects, the following impacts from their implementation and price arbitrage that should be provoked on natural gas markets. (author)

  20. Approaches for Making High Performance Polymer Materials from Commodity Polymers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Xi

    2004-01-01

    A brief surrey of ongoing research work done for improving and enhancing the properties of commodity polymers by the author and author's colleagues is given in this paper. A series of high performance polymers and polymer nanomaterials were successfully prepared through irradiation and stress-induced reactions of polymers and hydrogen bonding. The methods proposed are viable, easy in operation, clean and efficient.1. The effect of irradiation source (UV light, electron beam, γ -ray and microwave), irradiation dose, irradiation time and atmosphere etc. on molecular structure of polyolefine during irradiation was studied. The basic rules of dominating oxidation, degradation and cross-linking reactions were mastered. Under the controlled conditions, cross-linking reactions are prevented, some oxygen containing groups are introduced on the molecular chain of polyolefine to facilitate the interface compatibility of their blends. A series of high performance polymer materials: u-HDPE/PA6,u-HDPE/CaCO3, u-iPP/STC, γ-HDPE/STC, γ-LLDPE/ATH, e-HDPE, e-LLDPE and m-HDPEfilled system were prepared (u- ultraviolet light irradiated, γ- γ-ray irradiated, e- electron beam irradiated, m- microwave irradiated)2. The effect of ultrasonic irradiation, jet and pan-milling on structure and changes in properties of polymers were studied. Imposition of critical stress on polymer chain can cause the scission of bonds to form macroradicals. The macroradicals formed in this way may recombine or react with monomer or other radicals to form linear, branched or cross-linked polymers or copolymers. About 20 kinds of block/graft copolymers have been synthesized from polymer-polymer or polymer-monomer through ultrasonic irradiation.Through jet-milling, the molecular weight of PVC is decreased somewhat, the intensity of its crystalline absorption bonds becomes indistinct. The processability, the yield strength, strength at break and elongation at break of PVC get increased quite a lot after

  1. Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Convenience Yields

    OpenAIRE

    Beutler, Toni

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates whether commodity convenience yields - the yields that accrue to the holders of physical commodities - can predict the exchange rate of commodity-exporters' currencies. Predictability is a consequence of the fact that i) convenience yields are useful predictors for commodity prices and ii) commodity currencies have a strong relationship with commodity prices. The empirical evidence indicates that there is a significant relationship between aggregate measures of conveni...

  2. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  3. Financialization of commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Falkowski

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The basic theory of price formation tells us how the price of a particular asset will change based on the adjustment to its supply and demand. However, values of assets are also determined by other business fundamentals, company’s and world events, human psychology, and investors’ belief about the possible future profit. In recent history that lead to an increase of individual and institutional investors’ interest in allocating their resources in commodity markets. With a large inflow of capital commodities’ prices started to rise making them attractive components to effective investment portfolios. The presented paper addresses the issue of so called commodities ‘financialization’ process. It looks at the main factors standing behind commodities’ price movements and to what extent financial market participants contributed to commodities price volatility in recent years. Based on the data examined it distinguishes the involvement of both commercial and non-commercial traders in short and long term periods of time. As well as explaining the impact of growing investors’ interest in commodity markets it defines other market forces - like currency appreciations and emerging markets - as being part of increased volatility in raw and soft commodity markets. Along with market examination the paper focuses on possible future outcomes in attempts to regulate commodities derivatives markets and potential effects of those efforts.

  4. Pricing Policy and Strategies for Consumer High-Tech Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovleac, L.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the complex process of price setting for consumer high-tech products. These prices are highly influenced by some external factors from the economic and social environment. The main objective of this paper is to establish the most effective pricing policies and strategies used by high-tech companies of various sizes. Decisions about price fixing for consumer high-technology products are largely influenced by consumer behaviour, too.

  5. Research on the Pricing of Bundling Information Commodity%信息产品的捆绑定价问题研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛彦妮; 王刊良; 王龙伟

    2003-01-01

    This article studies the characteristics of low marginal cost of information commodity and points out that bundling information commodity is surprisingly profitable. After an analysis of the three factors affecting the sales income of bundling information commodity, that is, marginal cost, distribution of consumer' s valuation of bundling commodity and bundling size, a marketing strategy for bundling information commodity is proposed.

  6. Comparing branch-and-price algorithms for the Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette; Petersen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    -Protocol Label Switching. The problem has previously been solved to optimality through branch-and-price. In this paper we propose two exact solution methods both based on an alternative decomposition. The two methods differ in their branching strategy. The first method, which branches on forbidden edge sequences...

  7. 国际大宗商品期货价格与中国CPI的相关性实证研究%International bulk commodity future price and China CPI relation’s demonstration research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    代方龙; 姜永宏

    2012-01-01

    Since the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis,the international commodity prices has continued to fluctuate.This led to a discussion of whether the increasing of commodity prices was the cause of Chinese inflation.In this paper,we take empirical analysis of Chinese consumer price index(CPI) and some representative international commodity prices which contained copper,crude oil,soybeans and sugar.We study the impact of international commodity prices shock on Chinese CPI,using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response functions and other measurement methods.%美国次债危机以来大宗初级商品价格持续大幅波动,引发了关于我国大宗初级商品价格上涨是否是导致我国通货膨胀原因的讨论。本文对铜、原油、大豆和糖具有国际代表性的大宗商品价格与我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)进行实证分析,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数等计量方法研究了我国大宗初级商品价格变化对CPI的影响。

  8. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  9. High-performance vitrimers from commodity thermoplastics through dioxaborolane metathesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röttger, Max; Domenech, Trystan; van der Weegen, Rob; Breuillac, Antoine; Nicolaÿ, Renaud; Leibler, Ludwik

    2017-04-07

    Windmills, cars, and dental restoration demand polymer materials and composites that are easy to process, assemble, and recycle while exhibiting outstanding mechanical, thermal, and chemical resistance. Vitrimers, which are polymer networks able to shuffle chemical bonds through exchange reactions, could address these demands if they were prepared from existing plastics and processed with fast production rates and current equipment. We report the metathesis of dioxaborolanes, which is rapid and thermally robust, and use it to prepare vitrimers from polymers as different as poly(methyl methacrylate), polystyrene, and high-density polyethylene that, although permanently cross-linked, can be processed multiple times by means of extrusion or injection molding. They show superior chemical resistance and dimensional stability and can be efficiently assembled. The strategy is applicable to polymers with backbones made of carbon-carbon single bonds.

  10. High-performance vitrimers from commodity thermoplastics through dioxaborolane metathesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röttger, Max; Domenech, Trystan; van der Weegen, Rob; Breuillac, Antoine; Nicolaÿ, Renaud; Leibler, Ludwik

    2017-04-01

    Windmills, cars, and dental restoration demand polymer materials and composites that are easy to process, assemble, and recycle while exhibiting outstanding mechanical, thermal, and chemical resistance. Vitrimers, which are polymer networks able to shuffle chemical bonds through exchange reactions, could address these demands if they were prepared from existing plastics and processed with fast production rates and current equipment. We report the metathesis of dioxaborolanes, which is rapid and thermally robust, and use it to prepare vitrimers from polymers as different as poly(methyl methacrylate), polystyrene, and high-density polyethylene that, although permanently cross-linked, can be processed multiple times by means of extrusion or injection molding. They show superior chemical resistance and dimensional stability and can be efficiently assembled. The strategy is applicable to polymers with backbones made of carbon-carbon single bonds.

  11. Study of Copper Substitute in High Copper Price Market Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    <正>The high price of copper drives up industry cost,also it is difficult for terminal products to raise price to transfer the cost pressure brought by increase in copper price,as a result downstream consumption markets instead try to seek

  12. Food Prices Transmission In Rwanda: Econometric Analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ahavugimana

    Results of Error Correction Model (ECM) show that the coefficient of error term is significant in all ... Cross-commodity price transmission happens when the price of a .... Increases of prices are explained by low growth production and high ...

  13. Medium- to long-run implications of high food prices for global nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Patrick

    2010-01-01

    The combined food, fuel, and financial crises of 2007-2009 had severe and widespread negative impacts around the world. Two key questions challenging governments were: how long would the high prices last and with what effects on food security and nutrition over the longer run? This paper considers the drivers of the crisis and explores if, unlike past shocks, the recent price increases reflect structural changes in food price formation that will have lasting global implications. New cross-commodity relationships allowed prices to spike, although there was no shortage of food at the global level nor indeed a significant downturn in recent yields. Yet recent record levels of farm production were also mirrored by growing numbers of people chronically undernourished and/or micronutrient deficient. The gap between supply and need was underpinned by growing urban demand, consumption of processed and higher-value foods (including meat), biofuel policy, and purchasing power erosion, but also by short-term market-distorting policies implemented by governments responding to perceived shortages of food. Thus, the impact of future food price crises will depend largely on what policymakers chose to do in response to the peaks and what they do not do during the troughs. Appropriate investments are urgently needed not just in smallholder developing country agriculture, but in effective food policies and targeted programming that can reverse the recent negative trends in nutrition and that support access globally to improved diet quality as well as food quantity.

  14. Commodity CPU-GPU System for Low-Cost , High-Performance Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Zhang, S.; Weiss, R. M.; Barnett, G. A.; Yuen, D. A.

    2009-12-01

    We have put together a desktop computer system for under 2.5 K dollars from commodity components that consist of one quad-core CPU (Intel Core 2 Quad Q6600 Kentsfield 2.4GHz) and two high end GPUs (nVidia's GeForce GTX 295 and Tesla C1060). A 1200 watt power supply is required. On this commodity system, we have constructed an easy-to-use hybrid computing environment, in which Message Passing Interface (MPI) is used for managing the working loads, for transferring the data among different GPU devices, and for minimizing the need of CPU’s memory. The test runs using the MAGMA (Matrix Algebra on GPU and Multicore Architectures) library show that the speed ups for double precision calculations can be greater than 10 (GPU vs. CPU) and they are bigger (> 20) for single precision calculations. In addition we have enabled the combination of Matlab with CUDA for interactive visualization through MPI, i.e., two GPU devices are used for simulation and one GPU device is used for visualizing the computing results as the simulation goes. Our experience with this commodity system has shown that running multiple applications on one GPU device or running one application across multiple GPU devices can be done as conveniently as on CPUs. With NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang's claim that over the next 6 years GPU processing power will increase by 570x compared to the 3x for CPUs, future low-cost commodity computers such as ours may be a remedy for the long wait queues of the world's supercomputers, especially for small- and mid-scale computation. Our goal here is to explore the limits and capabilities of this emerging technology and to get ourselves ready to run large-scale simulations on the next generation of computing environment, which we believe will hybridize CPU and GPU architectures.

  15. Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Escalante

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

  16. Market structure and its interactions in beer commodity chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edita Veselská

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to contribute to deeper knowledge of the economics of the beer commodity chain, focused on the formation of the market structure and its interactions with the price development within analysed commodity chain. The results of the economic analysis have proved, that czech brewery is high concentrated and that between concentration ratio and breweries’s margin exists a positive interdependence.

  17. High Environmental Cost behind Low China Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fan Xiaoshan; Gao Jixi

    2007-01-01

    China has won the name of the world factory being famous for exporting a great deal of and various kinds of low-price merchandise.However,most of Chinese exports are primary goods or manufactured products that create heavy pollution and require intensive use of resources.Chinese products go abroad,but their following harms stay behind.The article analyzes many obvious low-price facts in China and their concomitant terrible environmental results in detail,and points out that there are huge hidden troubles in the way of China's sustainable development behind her seemingly flourishing economy.

  18. Chinese Petroleum Policy Facing High Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gong Jinshuang

    2005-01-01

    @@ China had overpaid foreign exchange US$7.24 billion (RMB60 billion yuan) for importing crude oil last year due to the rise in crude oil prices in the international market. The total operation cost for national economy in China has been increased. Some wealth created has been transferred into the hands of the crude oil suppliers.Meanwhile, the gasoline and diesel prices in China have been raised four times and twice respectively since last year resulting in a significant influence to the national economy.

  19. Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2016

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Most commodity price indexes rebounded in February-March from their January lows on improved market sentiment and a weakening dollar. Still, average prices for the first quarter fell compared to the last quarter of 2015, with energy prices down 21 percent and non-energy prices lower by 2 percent. Given the recent rebound in oil prices and expected supply tightening in the second half of the year, the crude oil price forecast for 2016 has been raised to $41 per barrel (bbl), up fro...

  20. High oil Price Calls for More Motivated Actions in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ The oil price has been soaring since the early of this year, and lingered at above US$70per barrel for a while lately. International oil prices have repeatedly hit record high, imposing unprecedented impact on the economic growth and citizens' life in China. In order to stabilize the domestic oil market, ensure a safe oil supply, and reduce the impact of high oil price on China's economic growth, the Chinese government should take more active measures to address these issues as soon as possible.

  1. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  2. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Elser

    Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  3. 基于VAR-DCC-GARCH模型的国内外有色金属商品价格联动分析%Price linkage between Chinese and international nonferrous metals commodity markets based on VAR-DCC-GARCH models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    岳意定; 刘笃池; 徐珊

    2015-01-01

    Using VAR-DCC-GARCH model, the literature on commodity price was extended by exploring the co-movement between Chinese nonferrous metal prices and global nonferrous metal prices represented by the nonferrous metal prices from London Metal Exchange (LME). The results show that LME nonferrous metals prices still have a greater impact on Chinese nonferrous metals prices. However, the impact of Chinese nonferrous metals prices on LME nonferrous metals prices is still weak except for lead price. The co-movement of nonferrous metal prices between LME and China presents hysteretic nature, and it lasts for 7−8 trading days. Furthermore, the co-movement between LME nonferrous metals prices and Chinese nonferrous metals prices has the characteristics of time-varying, and the correlation of lead prices between LME and China is the more stable than all other nonferrous metals prices.%运用VAR-DCC-GARCH模型,研究LME金属价格与中国金属价格间的联动效应及其动态相关性。结果表明:LME金属价格依然对中国金属价格有着较大的影响,而中国除了铅价外,其余金属价格对LME金属价格的影响还很微弱;中国铜、铅、锌价格与LME价格间均存在正向的联动性;LME金属价格与中国金属价格之间的联动性在反应时间上存在滞后性,滞后期在7到8个交易日左右;LME金属价格和中国金属价格间的互动影响关系存在时变性,其中,LME铅价与中国铅价间的相互关联最稳定。

  4. Commodity Markets Outlook, July 2016

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2016-01-01

    Most commodity price indexes rebounded in the second quarter of 2016, continuing their upward climb from January lows on improved market sentiment and tapering supplies. Oil prices jumped by more than a third due to supply outages and strong demand. Given this rebound and expected reduction in inventories during the second half of the year, the crude oil price forecast for 2016 is being ra...

  5. Commodity Markets Outlook, July 2016

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Most commodity price indexes rebounded in the second quarter of 2016, continuing their upward climb from January lows on improved market sentiment and tapering supplies. Oil prices jumped by more than a third due to supply outages and strong demand. Given this rebound and expected reduction in inventories during the second half of the year, the crude oil price forecast for 2016 is being ra...

  6. High Performance Commodity Networking in a 512-CPU Teraflop Beowulf Cluster for Computational Astrophysics

    CERN Document Server

    Dubinski, J; Pen, U L; Loken, C; Martin, P; Dubinski, John; Humble, Robin; Loken, Chris; Martin, Peter; Pen, Ue-Li

    2003-01-01

    We describe a new 512-CPU Beowulf cluster with Teraflop performance dedicated to problems in computational astrophysics. The cluster incorporates a cubic network topology based on inexpensive commodity 24-port gigabit switches and point to point connections through the second gigabit port on each Linux server. This configuration has network performance competitive with more expensive cluster configurations and is scaleable to much larger systems using other network topologies. Networking represents only about 9% of our total system cost of USD$561K. The standard Top 500 HPL Linpack benchmark rating is 1.202 Teraflops on 512 CPUs so computing costs by this measure are $0.47/Megaflop. We also describe 4 different astrophysical applications using complex parallel algorithms for studying large-scale structure formation, galaxy dynamics, magnetohydrodynamic flows onto blackholes and planet formation currently running on the cluster and achieving high parallel performance. The MHD code achieved a sustained speed of...

  7. Using a commodity high-definition television for collaborative structural biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yennamalli, Ragothaman; Arangarasan, Raj; Bryden, Aaron; Gleicher, Michael; Phillips, George N

    2014-06-01

    Visualization of protein structures using stereoscopic systems is frequently needed by structural biologists working to understand a protein's structure-function relationships. Often several scientists are working as a team and need simultaneous interaction with each other and the graphics representations. Most existing molecular visualization tools support single-user tasks, which are not suitable for a collaborative group. Expensive caves, domes or geowalls have been developed, but the availability and low cost of high-definition televisions (HDTVs) and game controllers in the commodity entertainment market provide an economically attractive option to achieve a collaborative environment. This paper describes a low-cost environment, using standard consumer game controllers and commercially available stereoscopic HDTV monitors with appropriate signal converters for structural biology collaborations employing existing binary distributions of commonly used software packages like Coot, PyMOL, Chimera, VMD, O, Olex2 and others.

  8. Commodity Markets, Risk and Poverty: A Case of Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Malunda, Dickson

    2011-01-01

    For most low developed economies in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), agriculture has been the main source of livelihood contributing 34% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 64% to employment, either directly or indirectly. Dependence on agricultural commodities for exports has been accompanied by a high degree of price risk in terms of both volatile and declining prices, a phenomenon which has not only affected the way households allocate their resources but also affected their welfare in terms of c...

  9. China's Oil Giants Benefited from High Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    @@ High crude prices and strong local demand boosted the profits of China's oil sector in the year's first half, but government-capped petrol prices, cooling economic growth and rising costs threaten future earnings. State-owned big-three oil companies - PetroChina, Sinopec Corp and CNOOC Ltd - posted net profit increases ranging from 11 percent to 48 percent for the first six months of this year.

  10. Getting to the Root of High Prescription Drug Prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waxman, Henry; Corr, Bill; Martin, Kristi; Duong, Sophia

    2017-07-01

    ISSUE: Historic increases in prescription drug prices and spending are contributing to unsustainable health care costs in the United States. There is widespread public support for elected officials to address the problem. GOAL: To document the drivers of high U.S. prescription drug prices and offer a broad range of feasible policy actions. METHODS: Interviews with experts and organizations engaged with prescription drug development and utilization, pricing, regulation, and clinical practice. Review of policy documents, proposals, and position statements from a variety of stakeholders. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: Congress and regulators can undertake a wide range of policy actions to begin to rebalance incentives for innovation and price competition, prioritize patient access and affordability, and maximize the availability of information to patients, providers, and payers.

  11. Study the Relationship between Global Liquidity and Commodity Price Based on VAR Model%基于VAR模型的大宗商品价格与全球流动性关系研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程剑

    2012-01-01

    The paper study the relationship between global liquidity and the price change of gold, oil, metals, agricultural prices with pulse analysis based on VAR model. The empirical results shown that impacts of global liquidity pulse varying among different commodities. The short term impacts of global liquidity to gold and oil prices arc significant. The long term impact to gold price is persistent, while the long term impact to oil and metals prices are decreasing. To agricultural products, both short term and long term impacts are slow and moderate.%基于VAR模型,使用脉冲分析方法研究全球流动性对黄金、原油、工业金属、农产品等大宗商品价格变动的影响.实证结果表明,对于不同品种的大宗商品,全球流动性冲击对其具有不同的影响.其中对黄金和原油价格短期影响较大,对黄金的长期影响持久且显著,但对原油和工业金属的长期影响效果是递减的,而对农产品价格的影响无论短期还是长期都是缓慢且温和的.

  12. High fuel price: Will Indonesian shift to public transportation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sopha, Bertha Maya; Pamungkas, Adhiguna Ramadhani

    2016-06-01

    Public transportation has been declining over years, while on the other hand, private vehicles are dramatically increasing. The share of public transportation was 38.3% in 2002 and slowly decreasing to 12.9% in 2010. Cheap fuel price has been alleged to be the main cause for the increased private vehicles. The declining trend of public transportation needs further investigation whether higher fuel price indeed influences the choice of transportation mode. The present study therefore aims at exploring the preference of using public transportation compared to motorcycle and private car for various fuel price and identifying barriers toward public transportation. A survey was conducted in 2013 to capture the preference of each transportation mode given different fuel price. A questionnaire which was designed according to the structure of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was distributed using random sampling in ten cities in Sumatra and Java islands, Indonesia. Results indicate that the increased fuel price would not lead to significant increase of public transportation users. Motorcycle seems continuously being the dominating transportation mode in the future. On the other hand, issues resulted from limited public transportation capacity such as long travel time, security and safety issues, limited route, poor schedule appear to be the most barriers of using public transportation. It is implied that in order to promote public transportation, interventions should be introduced simultaneously at both supply (i.e., increasing public transportation capacity) and demand (i.e., high fuel price) sides. Limitations of the study are also discussed.

  13. Commodity market reform in Africa : some recent experience

    OpenAIRE

    Takamasa AKIYAMA; Baffes, John; Larson, Donald F.; Varangis, Panos

    2003-01-01

    Since the early 1980s, dramatic changes in export commodity markets, shocks associated with resulting price declines, and changing views on the role of the state have ushered in widespread reforms to agricultural commodity markets in Africa. The reforms significantly reduced government participation in the marketing and pricing of commodities. Akiyama, Baffes, Larson, and Varangis examine ...

  14. A handbook of primary commodities in the global economy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Radetzki, Marian

    2008-01-01

    ... of economics, Marian Radetzki introduces and explains pertinent issues surrounding international commodity markets such as the global geography of raw materials, price formation, price trends, the role of commodity exchanges, the threat of depletion, cartel action, state ownership and the new commodity nationalism. marian radetzki is Professor of Economics at ...

  15. Equilibrium adjustment of disequilibrium prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herings, P.J.J.; van der Laan, G.; Talman, A.J.J.; Venniker, R.

    1994-01-01

    We consider an exchange economy in which price rigidities are present. In the short run the non-numeraire commodities have a exible price level with respect to the numeraire commodity but their relative prices are mutually fixed. In the long run prices are assumed to be completely exible. For a give

  16. Do Vietnamese upland farmers benefit from high world market prices for maize?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luckmann, J.; Ihle, R.; Kleinwechter, U.; Grethe, H.

    2015-01-01

    For rural households in the north of Vietnam, maize cropping is the main source of income. In the face of the world market price increases of the recent past, we analyze the regional market chain of this commodity qualitatively and econometrically investigating to what extent smallholder farmers in

  17. Do Vietnamese upland farmers benefit from high world market prices for maize?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luckmann, J.; Ihle, R.; Kleinwechter, U.; Grethe, H.

    2015-01-01

    For rural households in the north of Vietnam, maize cropping is the main source of income. In the face of the world market price increases of the recent past, we analyze the regional market chain of this commodity qualitatively and econometrically investigating to what extent smallholder farmers in

  18. Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2015

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Ample supplies and weak demand, especially for industrial commodities, contributed to the continued slide in most commodity prices in the third quarter of 2015. Annual price forecasts are revised down for 2015 and 2016. Only a modest recovery is expected in 2016. This issue briefly analyzes the implications of the ongoing El Niño episode and the recent Nuclear Agreement with Iran for agricultural and energy markets, respectively. Although El Niño could be the strongest on record, its impac...

  19. Commodities and Stock Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

  20. The Forecast Research of Urban Commodity Residence Price based on System Dynamics%基于系统动力学的住宅价格预测研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴振华; 黎芸; 贵文龙; 王亚蓓

    2013-01-01

      在系统动力学模型中将城市商品住宅价格系统划分为宏观经济、城市人口、市场需求、市场供给、房屋租赁和土地价值六个子系统,并引入了住宅开发投资及其比例、供求比影响因子、住宅销售面积中成交比例、开发利润率和基建投资等影响因子。通过仿真比较了桂林市商品住宅价格与人均可支配收入、住宅开发投资、 GDP 等主要因素的变动情况,分析了长期和短期各主要因素对商品住宅价格影响程度和时序,以此确定政府在不同时期以控制商品住宅价格为目的所应采取的宏观调控措施和手段,同时为消费者和房地产开发商择机购房和投资提供相应的决策依据。%  The urban commodity residence price system is calibrated separately by parts such as macroeconomic, urban pop-ulation, housing lease, value of land, market demand and supply in this paper. The maim influencing factors are introduced into the system dynamics model such as the housing development investments and their ratios, the relation between of demand and sup-ply, the proportion of deals of new housing selling area, the rate of development profit and the investment in infrastructure, etc. This paper analyzed the degree and time sequence of influences of the main factors influencing Guilin commodity residence price in long-term and short-term, after the comparison of the commodity residence price with the per capita disposable income, the housing development investments and GDP in Guilin city by system dynamics simulation, so it could be determined that the gov-ernment adopt correspondence available measure and the macro-economic control means to cater for controlling house prices and curbing speculation in the property market at different ages, and it also will provide the theoretical basis for buying house and in-vestment for consumers and real estate developers in proper occasions.

  1. How OPEC's high prices strangle world growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1976-12-20

    The high energy costs brought on by price increases of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reversed the trend of economic growth through cheap energy. Many economists feel that U.S. acceptance of these prices has supported the cartel. As a result, the world economy will lower, inflation and unemployment will intensify, and rescheduling the developing countries's $170 billion external debt will disrupt international finance. The increase of crude oil prices from $2.75 to $12 a barrel have caused the consuming nations to lose $600 billion in output while paying OPEC an additional $225 billion in new oil revenues. The U.S. lost $60 billion in GNP and over 2 million jobs in 1976 alone, according to George Perry of the Brookings Institution; capital investment has dropped and some has been diverted to the weapons industry. An overall tightening of the U.S. economy, which some economists think was too restrictive, has been the major U.S. response. Although world capital seems to be adjusting to the higher prices, some economists are concerned that the international financial structure cannot withstand present balance-of-payment deficits of $40 to $60 billion. Only large loans by OPEC will enable the developing countries to continue economic growth. The political impact of OPEC prices is resulting in a movement toward socialism and fascism in the developed countries and conservatism in the oil-producing countries. The Soviet Union has supported the price increases and the movement to the left. (DCK)

  2. [Research progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica and discussion on several key problems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Zeng, Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping; Huang, Lu-Qi; Jin, Yan; Zheng, Yu-Guang; Wang, Yong-Yan

    2014-05-01

    Standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica is an important way to solve the "Lemons Problem" of traditional Chinese medicine market. Standards of commodity classes are also helpful to rebuild market mechanisms for "high price for good quality". The previous edition of commodity classes standards of Chinese materia medica was made 30 years ago. It is no longer adapted to the market demand. This article researched progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It considered that biological activity is a better choice than chemical constituents for standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It is also considered that the key point to set standards of commodity classes is finding the influencing factors between "good quality" and "bad quality". The article also discussed the range of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, and how to coordinate standards of pharmacopoeia and commodity classes. According to different demands, diversiform standards can be used in commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, but efficacy is considered the most important index of commodity standard. Decoction pieces can be included in standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. The authors also formulated the standards of commodity classes of Notoginseng Radix as an example, and hope this study can make a positive and promotion effect on traditional Chinese medicine market related research.

  3. Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2015

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The decline in commodity prices that began with metals and agriculture four years ago—joined by crude oil in mid-2014—continued in 2015Q1 (Figure 1). Energy, metals, and agricultural prices were down 28, 11, and 5 percent, respectively, from the previous quarter. Increasing supplies, bumper harvests, weak demand and a stronger U.S. dollar contributed to the declines. The weakness is expected to continue for the rest of the year. All key price indices are projected to decline in 2015 before re...

  4. Pricing Strategy in Online Retailing Marketplaces of Homogeneous Goods: Should High Reputation Seller Charge More?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuewen; Wei, Kwok Kee; Chen, Huaping

    There are two conflicting streams of research findings on pricing strategy: one is high reputation sellers should charge price premium, while the other is high reputation sellers should charge relatively low price. Motivated by this confliction, this study examines pricing strategy in online retailing marketplace of homogeneous goods. We conduct an empirical study using data collected from a dominant online retailing marketplace in China. Our research results indicate that, in online retailing marketplace of homogeneous goods, high reputation sellers should charge relatively low price, because the consumers of high reputation sellers are more price sensitive than the consumers of low reputation sellers.

  5. Constraints to the Development of Commodity Exchanges in Africa: A Case Study of ZAMACE

    OpenAIRE

    Sitko, Nicholas J.; Jayne, Thomas S.

    2011-01-01

    The development of agricultural commodity exchanges in Africa has become an increasingly popular strategy for addressing some of the ills plaguing African food markets, including poorly developed risk management systems, high transaction costs, and limited price discovery. However, despite substantial support from donors and, in some cases, national governments, commodity exchanges in most African countries are having difficulties getting off the ground. While previous studies (Rashid, Winter...

  6. EL NINO AND COFFEE PRICE VOLATILITY IN 1997

    OpenAIRE

    Frechette, Darren L.; Delavan, Willard

    1998-01-01

    Coffee price volatility was extreme in 1997. With no obvious drought or freezing conditions in major growing countries, market analysts blamed El Nino. Alternatively, economic theory implies that commodity price volatility should be high when inventories are low. We analyze and test these two hypotheses

  7. 物价波动影响因素敏感性比较:货币流通速度与货币量——基于1979—2008年中国物价波动的历史%A Comparison of the Sensitivity of Money Factors Influencing Fluctuations in Commodity Prices: Circulation Speed and Supply --Based on the History of Fluctuations in Commodity Prices in China from 1979 to 2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘巍

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the history of fluctuations in commodity prices in China from 1979 to 2008. Then based on exchange equation, it is working on the assumption that money circulation speed will change and employs statistical description and econometric analysis to analyze the effects of money circulation speed and money supply on commodity prices. It concludes that, in terms of the effect of money flow on commodity prices in China, whether from the perspective of sensitivity or importance, the effect of money circulation speed was greater than the effect of money supply during the sample period.%文章考察了1979--2008年中国物价波动的历史,以交易方程式为逻辑基础,放松了货币流通速度不变的假设,以货币流通速度、货币量、GDP环比指数为依据,运用统计描述和数量方法分析了货币流通速度和货币量对物价的影响。文章的研究结论是,在这30年里,就货币流量对中国物价的影响而言,无论是敏感性还是重要性,货币流通速度都大于货币量。

  8. Volume 10 No. 11 November 2010 4350 IMPACT OF PRICE AND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2010-11-11

    Nov 11, 2010 ... This study examined the impact of price and total expenditure on food ... expensive source of calories, was lower among the high income .... expenditure coefficient, εi = the error term, X is total expenditure on all commodities.

  9. Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boons, M.F.

    2014-01-01

    The dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing. Chapter I is motivated by the recent surge in institutional investment in commodity futures markets. The chapter studies how commodity risk is priced in stock and futures markets and asks whether this risk premium is time-varying with these

  10. Market-Based Price-Risk Management for Coffee Producers

    OpenAIRE

    Sushil Mohan

    2007-01-01

    Coffee is characterised by high levels of price fluctuation, which exposes coffee producers to price risk. Coffee is widely traded in international commodity futures markets. This offers scope for producers to mange their price risk by hedging on these markets. The hedging mechanism proposed is based on the use of put options. The paper uses historical data of actual coffee put options contracts to estimate the costs of the mechanism; the benefits are inferred from field evidence. It emerges ...

  11. High and varying prices for privately insured patients underscore hospital market power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Chapin; Bond, Amelia M; Reschovsky, James D

    2013-09-01

    Across 13 selected U.S. metropolitan areas, hospital prices for privately insured patients are much higher than Medicare payment rates and vary widely across and within markets, according to a study by the Center for Studying Health System Change (HSC) based on claims data for about 590,000 active and retired nonelderly autoworkers and their dependents. Across the 13 communities, aver­age hospital prices for privately insured patients are about one-and-a-half times Medicare rates for inpatient care and two times what Medicare pays for outpa­tient care. Within individual communities, prices vary widely, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid 60 percent more for inpatient services than the lowest-priced hospital. The price gap within markets is even greater for hospital outpatient care, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid nearly double the lowest-priced hospital. In contrast to the wide variation in hospital prices for pri­vately insured patients across and within markets, prices for primary care physi­cian services generally are close to Medicare rates and vary little within markets. Prices for specialist physician services, however, are higher relative to Medicare and vary more across and within markets. Of the 13 markets, five are in Michigan, which has an unusually concentrated private insurance market, with one insurer commanding a 70-percent market share. Despite the presence of a dominant insurer, almost all Michigan hospi­tals command prices that are higher than Medicare, and some hospitals com­mand prices that are twice what Medicare pays. In the eight markets outside of Michigan, private insurers generally pay even higher hospital prices, with even wider gaps between high- and low-priced hospitals. The variation in hospital and specialist physician prices within communities underscores that some hospitals and physicians have significant market power to command high prices, even in markets with a dominant insurer.

  12. Guangxi Canceling Preferential Power Price for High Energy Consumption Including Aluminum Enterprises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    <正>Guangxi has carried out the policy of differen- tiated power price earnestly.At the end of 2007,the price bureau of the autonomous re- gion has unveiled the policy of the cancellation of preferential electricity price for high energy consumption enterprises.

  13. Cr, Cu, Mn, Mo, Ni, and Steel Price Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papp, John F.; Corathers, Lisa A.; Edelstein, Daniel L.; Fenton, Michael D.; Kuck, Peter H.; Magyar, Michael J.

    2007-01-01

    Summary This report contains the 55 slide images from a presentation made by the author at the meeting of the Metal Powder Industries Federation held in Denver, CO, on May 15, 2007. The Metal Powder Industries Federation (MPIF) invited the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to speak at their annual meeting about the price drivers for chromium, copper, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, and steel. These metals are of interest to MPIF because the prices of these raw materials used by their industry were at historically high levels. Because the USGS closely monitors, yet neither buys nor sells, metal commodities, it is an unbiased source of metal price information and analysis. The authors used information about these and other metals collected and published by the USGS (U.S. production, trade, stocks, and prices) and about consumption and stocks internationally by country from industry organizations that publish such information, because metal markets are influenced by activities and events over the entire globe. By seeking a common cause for common behavior among the various metal commodities, the authors found that major price drivers on metal commodities were inflation, major international events such as wars and recessions, and major national events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and economic growth in China, which started with the open door policy in the 1970s but did not have significant market impact until starting in the 1990s. Metal commodity prices also responded to commodity-specific events.

  14. 我国热气商品成本价格现状及监审对策研究%The status quo of China's hot commodities prices and the cost of supervision and examination of countermeasures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱学义; 秦国华; 魏娟

    2011-01-01

    Urban heat, including thermal power company to provide water to urban residents,city departments to provide heat and steam.China's urban centralized supply of steam in the past five years the number of average annual decline rate of 3.1%,while the centralized supply of hot water over the same period the total average annual growth rate of 9.4% .The price of heat production units controlled by the government because the heat has been much lower than its cost,a loss.From the production of heat loss but also the raw coal prices rose too fast, heat pipes (lines) repair and maintenance costs rise. Government to protect the vital interests of urban residents, often take a certain form of heat production units make up the dark.Hot commodity costs of both policies and regulations for supervision and examination system and,more important is the hot commodity for market-oriented reforms,dark make up for the next meeting,and in terms of policy guidance.%城市供热包括热电公司向城镇居民提供热水、热气以及向城市有关部门提供蒸汽。我国城市集中供应蒸汽的数量近5年中平均每年以3.1%速度在下降,而同期集中供应热水总量平均每年以9.4%的速度在增长。而热气生产单位由于热气价格由政府控制,已大大低于其成本,出现亏损。亏损还来源于生产热气的原料煤价格上涨过快、热气输送管道(线)维修、维护费用升高等。政府为了保护城市居民的切身利益,往往采取一定方式对热气生产单位进行暗补。对热气商品成本进行监审既要政策法规制度进行,更重要的是对热气商品进行市场化改革,变暗补为明补,并在政策上予以引导。

  15. Aim High or Go Low? Pricing Strategies and Enrollment Effects when the Net Price Elasticity Varies with Need and Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curs, Bradley R.; Singell, Larry D., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Detailed data on individual applicants to a large public university are used to demonstrate that net price responsiveness decreases with need and ability. Enrollment effects are simulated and show a movement towards a high tuition/high aid (low tuition/low aid) policy significantly lowers (raises) tuition revenue with a modest increase (decrease)…

  16. RICE PRICE VOLATILITY IN EAST JAVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wati R.Y.E.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the research is analyzing the volatility and volatility spillover of monthly price of paddy at the level of farmers and consumers in 2010-2016. ARCH/GARCH used to analyze volatility and GARCH BEKK-model is used to analyze the volatility spillover. The results of the analysis show that price volatility at the farmer level is very high (extremely high volatility, price volatility at the consumer level is low (low volatility, and volatility spillover does not occur between the farmers and the consumers market. The need to guarantee an effective floor price as well as information disclosure related to the market commodity prices so that the pattern of prices transmission among interrelated markets can be symmetrical.

  17. Price Shocks, Structural Constraints and Policy Reactions in Tanzania and Malawi. A General Equilibrium Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    The instability which was recently observed in world commodity prices has raised widespread concerns, especially for its possible consequences on weak economies such as those of the Least Developed Countries and the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs). A potential ¿double squeeze¿ may occur in these countries, which are highly dependent on world markets for both staple foods and petroleum. This paper analyses the consequences of the spike in commodity price observed in 2008, and the po...

  18. Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

    2011-12-01

    In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

  19. Monetary policy and world commodity markets: 2000-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Askari

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Expansionary monetary policy in key industrial countries and a rapidly depreciating US dollar sent commodity prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003–2007. In contrast, consumer price indices in major OECD countries, a leading indicator for monetary policy, showed almost no inflation. This twin development is a puzzle as the evolution of consumer prices were not responsive to record low interest rates, doubledigit commodity inflation, and a sharp depreciation of the dollar. A common trend, identified as a monetary shock, drives commodity prices. Policymakers face a policy dilemma: maintain expansionary monetary policy stance with persistent commodity price inflation, subsequent severe world recession, and financial disorder, or tighten monetary policy with subsequent sustained economic growth and financial and price stability.

  20. Monetary policy and world commodity markets: 2000-2007

    OpenAIRE

    Hossein Askari; Noureddine Krichene

    2010-01-01

    Expansionary monetary policy in key industrial countries and a rapidly depreciating US dollar sent commodity prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003–2007. In contrast, consumer price indices in major OECD countries, a leading indicator for monetary policy, showed almost no inflation. This twin development is a puzzle as the evolution of consumer prices were not responsive to record low interest rates, doubledigit commodity inflation, and a sharp depreciation of the dollar. A commo...

  1. Profiling the high frequency wine consumer by price segmentation in the US market

    OpenAIRE

    Liz Thach; Janeen Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Heavy users of consumer products are important to marketers as a profitable target segment. This is equally true in the wine industry, but with the added precaution of encouraging responsible consumption. This study examines the attributes and behaviors of 681 high frequency (heavy-user) wine consumers in the US, based on a price segmentation of High, Moderate, and Low Spenders. For this study, price segmentation was defined as the price typically paid for a bottle of wine for home consumptio...

  2. RISK AND RETURN TO IP GRAIN PRODUCTION: THE CASE OF HIGH OIL CORN

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Todd D.; Gray, Allan W.; Dobbins, Craig L.

    2000-01-01

    Returns for soybeans, commodity corn and high oil corn under an export and domestic market buyer's-call contract were simulated. High oil corn is competitive with commodity corn when yield drag is two percent and bundling reduces seed cost. Commodity loan rate is important in reducing high oil corn price risk.

  3. Understanding differences between high- and low-price hospitals: implications for efforts to rein in costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Chapin; Reschovsky, James D; Bond, Amelia M

    2014-02-01

    Private insurers pay widely varying prices for inpatient care across hospitals. Previous research indicates that certain hospitals use market clout to obtain higher payment rates, but there have been few in-depth examinations of the relationship between hospital characteristics and pricing power. This study used private insurance claims data to identify hospitals receiving inpatient prices significantly higher or lower than the median in their market. High-price hospitals, compared to other hospitals, tend to be larger; be major teaching hospitals; belong to systems with large market shares; and provide specialized services, such as heart transplants and Level I trauma care. High-price hospitals also receive significant revenues from nonpatient sources, such as state Medicaid disproportionate-share hospital funds, and they enjoy healthy total financial margins. Quality indicators for high-price hospitals were mixed: High-price hospitals fared much better than low-price hospitals did in U.S. News & World Report rankings, which are largely based on reputation, while generally scoring worse on objective measures of quality, such as postsurgical mortality rates. Thus, insurers may face resistance if they attempt to steer patients away from high-price hospitals because these facilities have good reputations and offer specialized services that may be unique in their markets.

  4. Will Commodity Properties Affect Seller's Creditworthy: Evidence in C2C E-commerce Market in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Hui; Ling, Min

    This paper finds out that the credit rating level shows significant difference among different sub-commodity markets in E-commerce, which provides room for sellers to get higher credit rating by entering businesses with higher average credit level before fraud. In order to study the influence of commodity properties on credit rating, this paper analyzes how commodity properties affect average crediting rating through the degree of information asymmetry, returns and costs of fraud, credibility perception and fraud tolerance. Empirical study shows that Delivery, average trading volume, average price and complaint possibility have decisive impacts on credit performance; brand market share, the degree of standardization and the degree of imitation also have a relatively less significant effect on credit rating. Finally, this paper suggests that important commodity properties should be introduced to modify reputation system, for preventing credit rating arbitrage behavior where sellers move into low-rating commodity after being assigned high credit rating.

  5. DID SPECULATIVE ACTIVITIES CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICES DURING 1993 TO 2008?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xun ZHANG; Kin Keung LAI; Shouyang WANG

    2009-01-01

    By applying two nonlinear Granger causality testing methods and rolling window strategy to explore the relationship between speculative activities and crude oil prices, the unidirectional Granger causality from speculative activities to returns of crude oil prices during the high price phase is discovered. It is proved that speculative activities did contribute to high crude oil prices after the Asian financial crisis and OPEC's output cut in 1998. The unidirectional Granger causality from returns of crude oil prices to speculative activities is significant in general. But after 2000, with the sharp rise in crude oil prices, this unidirectional Granger causality became a complex nonlinear relationship, which cannot be detected by any linear Granger causality test.

  6. Problems Confronting China's Petroleum Refining Industry During the High Oil Price Period and Suggestions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Lingli; Lü Jiahuan

    2006-01-01

    This article has suggested that high oil price could loom many years in the future and has analyzed the impact of this trend on the oil product mix and petroleum refining industry in China. This article has also put forward measures for sharpening the international competitive edge of China's petroleum refining industry to cope with the challenges of high oil price.

  7. 国际大宗商品期货价格与中国农产品批发市场价格关系研究%Relationship Between International Bulk Commodity Futures Price and Chinese Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭晶荣; 邓强; 王瑞

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses Johansen co-integration test and tiranger causality test to anatyze tne relationship between Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price (CRB) and agricultural products wholesale market price (AWPI) from January 2005 to September 2011. The results show that: 1) CRB (or through CPI ) has a direct effect on AWPI, the longer the lag period, the more significant performance shows, and long-term equilibrium relationship exists; 2) VEC model reflects that deviates from the long-term equilibrium between CRB and AWPI can be modified in the short-term. In addition, the study finds that CRB plays a warning role for domestic agricultural wholesale market prices. enlightenments from the study. Finally, the paper puts forwards some policy%本文通过Johansen协整和Granger因果关系检验,分析了2005年1月至2011年9月国际大宗商品期货价格指数(CRB)与批发价格指数(AWPI)之间的关系,结果表明:CRB对AwPI具有直接或通过CPI的间接传导作用,滞后期越长,表现越显著,并存在长期均衡关系;VEC模型结果表明短期对CRB与AwPI之间长期均衡偏离可以加以修正。此外,研究发现CRB对批发价格具有预警作用,并从中得出政策性启示。

  8. High-performance synthetic aperture radar image formation on commodity multicore architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlin, Daniel S.; Franchetti, Franz; Püschel, Markus; Moura, José M. F.

    2009-05-01

    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image processing platforms have to process increasingly large datasets under and hard real-time deadlines. Upgrading these platforms is expensive. An attractive solution to this problem is to couple high performance, general-purpose Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) architectures such as IBM's Cell BE and Intel's Core with software implementations of SAR algorithms. While this approach provides great flexibility, achieving the requisite performance is difficult and time-consuming. The reason is the highly parallel nature and general complexity of modern COTS microarchitectures. To achieve the best performance, developers have to interweave of various complex optimizations including multithreading, the use of SIMD vector extensions, and careful tuning to the memory hierarchy. In this paper, we demonstrate the computer generation of high performance code for SAR implementations on Intel's multicore platforms based on the Spiral framework and system. The key is to express SAR and its building blocks in Spiral's formal domain-specific language to enable automatic vectorization, parallelization, and memory hierarchy tuning through rewriting at a high abstraction level and automatic exploration of choices. We show that Spiral produces code for the latest Intel quadcore platforms that surpasses competing hand-tuned implementations on the Cell Blade, an architecture with twice as many cores and three times the memory bandwidth. Specifically, we show an average performance of 39 Gigaflops/sec for 16-Megapixel and 100-Megapixel SAR images with runtimes of 0.56 and 3.76 seconds respectively.

  9. Natural Gas Price Rises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ As was projected in the third-quarter monetary policy implementation report published by the People's Bank of China on November 15th, 2006, the residents' consumption price index in China would reach 1.5% in 2006. Prices of consumer commodities such as water, power and natural gas would rise and the pressure of inflation would persist in the future.

  10. APEnet+: high bandwidth 3D torus direct network for petaflops scale commodity clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammendola, R.; Biagioni, A.; Frezza, O.; Lo Cicero, F.; Lonardo, A.; Paolucci, P. S.; Rossetti, D.; Salamon, A.; Salina, G.; Simula, F.; Tosoratto, L.; Vicini, P.

    2011-12-01

    We describe herein the APElink+ board, a PCIe interconnect adapter featuring the latest advances in wire speed and interface technology plus hardware support for a RDMA programming model and experimental acceleration of GPU networking; this design allows us to build a low latency, high bandwidth PC cluster, the APEnet+ network, the new generation of our cost-effective, tens-of-thousands-scalable cluster network architecture. Some test results and characterization of data transmission of a complete testbench, based on a commercial development card mounting an Altera® FPGA, are provided.

  11. APEnet+: high bandwidth 3D torus direct network for petaflops scale commodity clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Ammendola, Roberto; Frezza, Ottorino; Cicero, Francesca Lo; Lonardo, Alessandro; Paolucci, Pier Stanislao; Rossetti, Davide; Salamon, Andrea; Salina, Gaetano; Simula, Francesco; Tosoratto, Laura; Vicini, Piero

    2011-01-01

    We describe herein the APElink+ board, a PCIe interconnect adapter featuring the latest advances in wire speed and interface technology plus hardware support for a RDMA programming model and experimental acceleration of GPU networking; this design allows us to build a low latency, high bandwidth PC cluster, the APEnet+ network, the new generation of our cost-effective, tens-of-thousands-scalable cluster network architecture. Some test results and characterization of data transmission of a complete testbench, based on a commercial development card mounting an Altera FPGA, are provided.

  12. Development of Bio-Oil Commodity Fuel as a Refinery Feedstock from High Impact Algae Biomass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kastner, James [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Mani, Sudhagar [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Das, K. C. [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Hilten, Roger [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Jena, Umakanta [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States)

    2014-11-30

    A two-stage hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) process was developed to 1) reduce nitrogen levels in algal oil, 2) generate a nitrogen rich stream with limited inhibitors for recycle and algae cultivation, and 3) improve downstream catalytic hydrodenitrogenation and hydrodeoxygenation of the algal oil to refinery intermediates. In the first stage, low temperature HTL was conducted at 125, 175, and 225°C at holding times ranging from 1 to 30 min (time at reaction temperature). A consortium of three algal strains, namely Chlorella sorokiniana, Chlorella minutissima, and Scenedesmus bijuga were used to grow and harvest biomass in a raceway system – this consortium is called the UGA Raceway strain throughout the report. Subsequent analysis of the final harvested product indicated that only two strains predominated in the final harvest - Chlorella sorokiniana and Scenedesmus bijuga. Two additional strains representing a high protein (Spirulina platensis) and high lipid algae (Nannochloropsis) strains were also used in this study. These strains were purchased from suppliers. S. platensis biomass was provided by Earthrise Nutritionals LLC (Calipatria, CA) in dry powder form with defined properties, and was stored in airtight packages at 4°C prior to use. A Nannochloropsis paste from Reed Mariculture was purchased and used in the two-stage HTL/HDO experiments. The solids and liquids from this low temperature HTL pretreatment step were separated and analyzed, leading to the following conclusions. Overall, these results indicate that low temperature HTL (200-250°C) at short residence times (5-15 min) can be used to lyse algae cells and remove/separate protein and nitrogen before subsequent higher temperature HTL (for lipid and other polymer hydrolysis) and HDO. The significant reduction in nitrogen when coupled with low protein/high lipid algae cultivation methods at scale could significantly improve downstream catalytic HDO results. However, significant barriers and

  13. The impact of high energy prices in Central American households

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuesta, Ana; Manzano, Osmel

    2010-09-15

    Central American countries have one the highest energy costs in Latin America. We look at the potential social impact of higher energy prices using household data. Depending on a portfolio of characteristics, higher energy prices could have significant impact on the poor purchasing power. In countries like Guatemala, the poorest could see a higher impact than the richest. In Mexico and Panama, the impact is higher for the 'lower middle class'. We measure indirect effects of lack of energy sources, we conclude that children that live in households that cook with fossil fuels are subject to attend less to school.

  14. COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Mednikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

  15. Price Transmission Analysis in Iran Chicken Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Safdar Hosseini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades vertical price transmissionanalysis has been the subject of considerable attention inapplied agricultural economics. It has been argued that theexistence of asymmetric price transmission generates rents formarketing and processing agents. Retail prices allegedly movefaster upwards than downwards in response to farm level pricemovements. This is an important issue for many agriculturalmarkets, including the Iranian chicken market. Chicken is animportant source of nutrition in Iranian society and many ruralhouseholds depend on this commodity market as a source of income.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the extent, if any,of asymmetric price transmission in Iran chicken market usingthe Houck, Error Correction and Threshold models. The analysisis based on weekly chicken price data at farm and retail levelsover the period October 2002 to March 2006. The results oftests on all three models show that price transmission in Iranianchicken market is long-run symmetric, but short-run asymmetric.Increases in the farm price transmit immediately to the retaillevel, while decreases in farm price transmit relatively moreslowly to the retail level. We conjecture the asymmetric pricetransmission in this market is the result of high inflation ratesthat lead the consumers to expect continual price increases anda different adjustment costs in the upwards direction comparedto the downwards direction for the marketing agents and a noncompetitiveslaughtering industry and that looking for ways tomake this sector of the chicken supply chain more competitivewill foster greater price transmission symmetry and lead towelfare gains for both consumers and agricultural producers.

  16. Identifying of risks in pricing using a regression model of demand on price dependence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.I. Yashkina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The main purpose of the article is to describe scientific and methodological approaches of determining the price elasticity of demand as a regression model based on the price and risk assessment of price variations on the received model. The results of the analysis. The study is based on the assumption that the index of price elasticity of demand on high-tech innovation is not constant as it is commonly understood in the classical sense. On the stage of commodity market release and subsequent sales growth, the index of price elasticity of demand may vary within certain limits. Index value and thereafter market response are closely related to the current price. Achieving the stated purpose of the article is possible when having factual information about prices and corresponding volumes of sales of new high-tech products for a short period of time, on the basis of which types of demand and prices interrelation are modeled. Risk assessment of pricing and profit optimization by the regression of demand depending on price consists of three stages: a obtaining of a regression model of the demand on the price; b obtaining of function of demand price elasticity and risk assessment of pricing depending on behavior of the function; c determination of the price of company to receive a maximum operating profit based on the specific model of price to demand function. To receive the regression model of dependence of demand on price it is recommended to use specific reference models. The article includes linear, hyperbolic and parabolic models. The regression dependence of price elasticity of demand on price for each of the reference models of demand is obtained on the basis of the function elasticity concept in mathematical analysis. The concept of «function of price elasticity of demand» expresses this dependence. For the received functions of price elasticity of demand, the article provides intervals with the highest and lowest

  17. 75 FR 65586 - Agricultural Commodity Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-26

    ... no obligation, to review, pre-screen, filter, redact, refuse or remove any or all of your submission... follows: ``A swap is a privately negotiated exchange of one asset or cash flow for another asset or cash flow. In a commodity swap , at least one of the assets or cash flows is related to the price of one or...

  18. Why are current world food prices so high? : a memo

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banse, M.A.H.; Nowicki, P.L.; Meijl, van H.

    2008-01-01

    World agricultural prices are very volatile which is due to traditional characteristics of agricultural markets such as inelastic (short run) supply and demand curves. A combination of record low global inventory levels, weather induced supply side shocks, surging outside investor influence, record

  19. Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and Commercial ... being tried in Nigeria, arable croppers' productivity has been consistently low. ... them in terms of fair price determination, information flow and issues resolution.

  20. High Penetrated Wind Farm Impacts on the Electricity Price: The Danish Case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haji Bashi, Mazaher; Yousefi, G. R.; Bak, Claus Leth;

    2016-01-01

    fossil fuel free overview in Danish energy policies, and the currently great share of wind power (more than 100% for some hours) in supplying the load, it is an interesting benchmark for the future electricity markets. Negative prices, price spikes, and price volatility are considered as the main effects......Energy trading policies, intermittency of wind farm output power, low marginal cost of the production, are the key factors that cause the wind farms to be effective on the electricity price. In this paper, the Danish electricity market is studied as a part of Nord Pool. Considering the completely...... of the high penetrated wind farm integration into electricity markets. Then, stochastic programming approach is employed to compare the volume of trades for a typical wind farm in a high and low wind penetrated market. Although increasing price spikes and volatility was reported in the literature...

  1. Availability and Price of High Quality Day Care and Female Employment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Marianne

    In this paper I analyse to what degree availability and price of high quality publicly subsidised childcare affects female employment for women living in couples following maternity leave. The results show that unrestricted access to day care has a significantly positive effct on female employmen.......The price effect is significantly negative: An increase in the price of child care of C=1 will decrease the female employment with 0.08% corresponding to a price elasticity of −0.17. This effect prevails during the first 12 months after childbirth.......In this paper I analyse to what degree availability and price of high quality publicly subsidised childcare affects female employment for women living in couples following maternity leave. The results show that unrestricted access to day care has a significantly positive effct on female employment...

  2. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... volatility indicates a nontrivial degree of market integration....

  3. A brief essay on the financialization of agricultural commodity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Girardi, Daniele

    2012-01-01

    During the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a “wall of money” coming from financial investors. In this essay I outline the main facts about the increasing presence and impact of financial investors in agricultural commodity markets and I discuss the main empirical works that tried to assess whether financial investors have affected agricultural prices in recent years.

  4. Consumption Pattern of Different Commodities in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hina Amir

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the “Consumption Pattern of Different Commodities in Pakistan” using the cross-sectional data taken from the household integrated Economic survey. This paper aims to analyze that what is the impact of per capita consumption on different household income group in Pakistan. In particular, per capita consumption of eleven (11 different variables with respect to different income groups. Ordinary least square method was used for the estimation of each equation for each variable. in the purpose of estimating this, different income groups were taken and identified the exact relationship between average incomes per household to the average expenditures per household since in the estimation of equations per capita consumption of each income group calculated respect to per capita income, so the formation of different equations were determined. Per capita income (PCY becomes independent of the unit of observation. Since, each household faces the same commodity prices prevailing at the time of household survey, for the purpose of analysis, total consumption expenditure has been disaggregated in to 11 commodity groups listed in table. The table indicates that value of R- squared is high and the co-efficient have correct signs and are significant at 1 percent level of significance, at 5 percent level of significance and at 10 percent level of significance. Overall results explain that with the increase in income expenditure increase for luxuries and decrease for necessities, but it will differ in rich and poor. Finally it is found that poor people consume more on necessities and rich people consume on luxuries as their income increase.

  5. Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Lu Zou

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent housing policies include measures for home purchase control and shanty town redevelopment. This study proposes sustainable pricing, in that the long-run equilibrium price is determined by the fundamentals of house prices. We argue that changes in CPI might have led to rapidly growing house prices and rather high price levels. We investigate the long-run or short-run impacts of new commodity housing completions, transacted square meters of commodity housing, and CPI for house prices in Shanghai. We adopt monthly data for the period of 2005–2010. We test for unit roots using both the ADF and PP techniques and structural breaks using both the Zivot-Andrews (Model B and Perron (Model C methods. Considering Cheung-Lai and Reinsel–Ahn finite-sample corrections, the results suggest a long-run equilibrium. Housing completions negatively impact house prices in the short run. A positive volume-price relationship is suggested. Housing sales affect house prices in the short run but not vice versa. Hence, the empirical evidence supports the search model. In addition, CPI is strongly exogenous with respect to the long-run relationship and thus is a long-term determinant of house prices. CPI also positively and drastically influences house prices in the short run. Therefore, a reduction in inflation rate could stabilize house prices, increasing the chances of sustainable prices in the future.

  6. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  7. Do ultra-orphan medicinal products warrant ultra-high prices? A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Picavet E

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Eline Picavet,1 David Cassiman,2 Steven Simoens1 1Department of Pharmaceutical and Pharmacological Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; 2Department of Hepatology, University Hospital Leuven, Leuven, Belgium Abstract: Ultra-orphan medicinal products (ultra-OMPs are intended for the treatment, prevention, or diagnosis of ultra-rare diseases, ie, life-threatening or chronically debilitating diseases that affect less than one per 50,000 individuals. Recently, high prices for ultra-OMPs have given rise to debate on the sustainability and justification of these prices. The aim of this article is to review the international scientific literature on the pricing of ultra-OMPs and to provide an overview of the current knowledge on the drivers of ultra-OMP pricing. The pricing process of ultra-OMPs is a complex and nontransparent issue. Evidence in the literature seems to indicate that ultra-OMPs are priced according to rarity and what the manufacturer believes the market will bear. Additionally, there appears to be a trend between the price of an ultra-OMP and the number of available alternatives. Patients, third-party payers, and pharmaceutical companies could benefit from more transparent pricing strategies. With a view to containing health care costs, it is likely that cost-sharing strategies, such as performance-based risk sharing arrangements, will become increasingly more important. However, it is vital that any measures for price control are consistent with the intended goals of the incentives to promote the development of new OMPs. Ideally, a balance must be struck between attaining affordable prices for ultra-OMPs and securing a realistic return on investment for the pharmaceutical industry. Keywords: ultra-orphan medicinal product, ultra-rare disease, pricing

  8. Measuring Price Changes: A Study of the Price Indexes. Fourth Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, William H.; Cullison, William E.

    This three-part monograph examines the major price indexes used to measure the intensity of inflation. The first part discusses the recent behavior of prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index (commodities, goods, and services), the Producer Price Index (wholesale prices of crude materials, intermediate materials, supplies, components, and…

  9. Locational Pricing to Mitigate Voltage Problems Caused by High PV Penetration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Weckx

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a locational marginal pricing algorithm is proposed to control the voltage in unbalanced distribution grids. The increasing amount of photovoltaic (PV generation installed in the grid may cause the voltage to rise to unacceptable levels during periods of low consumption. With locational prices, the distribution system operator can steer the reactive power consumption and active power curtailment of PV panels to guarantee a safe network operation. Flexible loads also respond to these prices. A distributed gradient algorithm automatically defines the locational prices that avoid voltage problems. Using these locational prices results in a minimum cost for the distribution operator to control the voltage. Locational prices can differ between the three phases in unbalanced grids. This is caused by a higher consumption or production in one of the phases compared to the other phases and provides the opportunity for arbitrage, where power is transferred from a phase with a low price to a phase with a high price. The effect of arbitrage is analyzed. The proposed algorithm is applied to an existing three-phase four-wire radial grid. Several simulations with realistic data are performed.

  10. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  11. DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA CARTAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

  12. The Influence of Agricultural Commodity on F&B Company’s Performance in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rofikoh Rokhim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the influence of agricultural commodity price movements on stock price and gross profit of food and beverage companies in Indonesia, as well as the effect of volatility prices of agricultural commodities. Using time series data of food and beverages (F&B companies that are listed at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX, this research calculating the event studies to find the abnormal returns. The results showed that the movement of agricultural commodity prices has a positive effect on stock prices of F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and sugar. Agricultural commodity prices also affect positively on gross profit F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and palm oil. The increase in prices of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of a positive cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies. The results also showed that the decline of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of negative cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies.

  13. Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wanner, Markus, E-mail: markus.wanner@mrm.uni-augsburg.de; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt; Rathgeber, Andreas [University of Augsburg, Institute for Materials Resource Management (Germany)

    2015-06-15

    The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% of all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events.

  14. A Pricing Strategy To Promote Sales of Lower Fat Foods in High School Cafeterias: Acceptability and Sensitivity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, Peter; French, Simone A.; Story, Mary; Fulkerson, Jayne A.

    2002-01-01

    Examined the purchase patterns of seven targeted foods under conditions in which prices of three high-fat foods were raised and prices of four low-fat foods were lowered in a high school cafeteria over 1 school year. Data collected on food sales and revenues supported the feasibility of a pricing strategy that offered low-fat foods at lower prices…

  15. 城市公共基础投入与商品住宅价格的关系--以西安各区为例%The Relationship between Public Investment and Commodity House Prices:A Case Study of Districts in Xi’ an

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐晓灵; 刘赟

    2013-01-01

    城市的公共投入对城市的空间结构有着极大的影响,这将导致消费者对于商品住宅偏好的改变,从而进一步影响商品住宅价格趋势的变化。本文从城市公共基础投入这一角度,采用了对区域居民生活便利性影响的重要投入指标,如城镇固定资产投资、教育支出、城市居民医疗卫生支出为指标,运用面板数据模型检验城市公共基础投入与商品住宅价格之间的关系。以西安各区域为例进行的实证研究结果表明:城市公共基础投入与商品住宅价格之间存在着正相关的关系,并且郊区的公共基础投入对商品住宅价格的影响比市区要显著,由此得出政府在郊区基础设施等的重点投入会使得消费者对于商品住宅选择的区位偏好发生了改变,从而会影响西安郊区商品住宅价格的变化。%The public investment of a city has a great inlfuence on urban spatial structure, it will lead to a change of consumers’ commodity preferences on residential house, thus it will have a further inlfuence on the commodity residential house price. Based on this , the paper uses some important indexes to relfect the convenience inlfuence level of regional residents’ life, such as capital investment, educational expenditure and medical care, and the paper uses the panel data model to examine the relationship between the public investment and the commodity house prices. Taking seven areas of Xi’an as an example, the empirical study result shows that:the public investment and the commodity house price has a positive relationship, and the public investment have a more signiifcant inlfuence on the suburbs house price than the urban house price, thus the government on public investment should render consumers to change location preferences of commodity residential house, and it will lead to the suburbs commodity house prices increase.

  16. Supplement: Commodity Index Report

    Data.gov (United States)

    Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Shows index traders in selected agricultural markets. These traders are drawn from the noncommercial and commercial categories. The noncommercial category includes...

  17. Effective multifractal features of high-frequency price fluctuations time series and l-variability diagrams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza, Jeferson de [Laboratorio de Analise de Bacias e Petrofisica, Departamento de Geologia, Universidade Federal do Parana, Centro Politecnico - Jardim das Americas, Caixa Postal 19001, 81531-990 Curitiba-PR (Brazil); Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas, Rua Dr. Xavier Sigaud 150, 22290-180 Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil)], E-mail: jdesouza@ufpr.br; Duarte Queiros, Silvio M. [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas, Rua Dr. Xavier Sigaud 150, 22290-180 Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil)], E-mail: sdqueiro@googlemail.com

    2009-11-30

    In this manuscript we present a comprehensive study on the multifractal properties of high-frequency price fluctuations and instantaneous volatility of the equities that compose the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The analysis consists about the quantification of the influence of dependence and non-Gaussianity on the multifractal character of financial quantities. Our results point out an equivalent importance of dependence and non-Gaussianity on the multifractality of time series. Moreover, we analyse l-diagrams of price fluctuations. In the latter case, we show that the fractal dimension of these maps is basically independent of the lag between price fluctuations that we assume.

  18. The impact of high oil prices on natural gas; Hoge olieprijzen maken gas duur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koevoet, H. (ed.)

    2003-04-01

    The principle of gas-to-oil (oil prices determine the price of natural gas) in the Netherlands and several other developments elsewhere (war in Iraq and a cold winter in the USA) has caused high natural gas prices. The question is whether the liberalization of the energy market can change this principle. [Dutch] De oorlogswolken boven Irak en een koude winter in de USA hebben de prijs van olie fors opgedreven. Daardoor is ook gas erg duur geworden. Kan de liberalisering daar iets aan veranderen?.

  19. A pricing strategy to promote sales of lower fat foods in high school cafeterias: acceptability and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, Peter; French, Simone A; Story, Mary; Fulkerson, Jayne A

    2002-01-01

    Prices of four low fat foods were reduced about 25% and prices of three high fat foods were increased about 10% to determine the impact on food purchases in a Midwestern suburban high school cafeteria to explore the impact of price on purchases. Low fat foods averaged about 13% of total sales. Sensitivity analysis was used to estimate that low fat foods would probably have averaged about 9% of total sales without the reduced price.

  20. Supply Chain Shipment Pricing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This data set provides supply chain health commodity shipment and pricing data. Specifically, the data set identifies Antiretroviral (ARV) and HIV lab shipments to...

  1. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    Titus SUCIU

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  2. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    Titus SUCIU

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  3. Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2014

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude oil prices (World Bank average), which have been remarkably stable during the past three years, averaged $104/barrel ...

  4. Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Sheng-Tung [Department of Public Finance, Feng Chia University (China); Kuo, Hsiao-I [Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology (China); Chen, Chi-Chung [Department of Applied Economics, National Chung-Hsing University, Taiwan, 250 Kuo-Kuang Road, Taichung (China)

    2010-08-15

    The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)

  5. Survey of Alternative Feedstocks for Commodity Chemical Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McFarlane, Joanna [ORNL; Robinson, Sharon M [ORNL

    2008-02-01

    The current high prices for petroleum and natural gas have spurred the chemical industry to examine alternative feedstocks for the production of commodity chemicals. High feedstock prices have driven methanol and ammonia production offshore. The U.S. Chemical Industry is the largest user of natural gas in the country. Over the last 30 years, alternatives to conventional petroleum and natural gas feedstocks have been developed, but have limited, if any, commercial implementation in the United States. Alternative feedstocks under consideration include coal from unconventional processing technologies, such as gasification and liquefaction, novel resources such as biomass, stranded natural gas from unconventional reserves, and heavy oil from tar sands or oil shale. These feedstock sources have been evaluated with respect to the feasibility and readiness for production of the highest volume commodity chemicals in the United States. Sources of organic compounds, such as ethanol from sugar fermentation and bitumen-derived heavy crude are now being primarily exploited for fuels, rather than for chemical feedstocks. Overall, government-sponsored research into the use of alternatives to petroleum feedstocks focuses on use for power and transportation fuels rather than for chemical feedstocks. Research is needed to reduce cost and technical risk. Use of alternative feedstocks is more common outside the United States R&D efforts are needed to make these processes more efficient and less risky before becoming more common domestically. The status of alternative feedstock technology is summarized.

  6. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms. Second

  7. Liberalisation of tropical commodity market and adding-up problem: A Bound test approach

    OpenAIRE

    Dhanya, V.

    2008-01-01

    The paper examines the effect of commodity market liberalisation on developing countries by taking the case of tropical products. This issue assumes importance in the context of developing countries characterised as they are by heavy dependence on commodity exports. Theoretically, commodity market liberalisation could adversely affect the terms of trade of exporting countries, as the price and income elasticity of demand for the commodities are relatively low. The problem arises as the welfar...

  8. Manufacturing process design for multi commodities in agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyawan, Yudha; Santosa, Andrian Henry

    2017-06-01

    High-potential commodities within particular agricultural sectors should be accompanied by maximum benefit value that can be attained by both local farmers and business players. In several cases, the business players are small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which have limited resources to perform added value process of the local commodities into the potential products. The weaknesses of SMEs such as the manual production process with low productivity, limited capacity to maintain prices, and unattractive packaging due to conventional production. Agricultural commodity is commonly created into several products such as flour, chips, crackers, oil, juice, and other products. This research was initiated by collecting data by interview method particularly to obtain the perspectives of SMEs as the business players. Subsequently, the information was processed based on the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to determine House of Quality from the first to fourth level. A proposed design as the result of QFD was produced and evaluated with Technology Assessment Model (TAM) and continued with a revised design. Finally, the revised design was analyzed with financial perspective to obtain the cost structure of investment, operational, maintenance, and workers. The machine that performs manufacturing process, as the result of revised design, was prototyped and tested to determined initial production process. The designed manufacturing process offers IDR 337,897, 651 of Net Present Value (NPV) in comparison with the existing process value of IDR 9,491,522 based on similar production input.

  9. What drives the high price of road freight transport in Central America ?

    OpenAIRE

    Osborne, Theresa; Pachon, Maria Claudia; Araya, Gonzalo Enrique

    2014-01-01

    In Central America, like many other developing regions, high transport costs are cited as an important impediment to trade and economic growth. Prices for road freight transport, a key mode of transport comprising a significant share of total transport costs for both intra, and extra, regional trade, are particularly high. Averaging 17 US cents per ton-kilometer on main trading routes, the...

  10. Profiling the high frequency wine consumer by price segmentation in the US market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liz Thach

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Heavy users of consumer products are important to marketers as a profitable target segment. This is equally true in the wine industry, but with the added precaution of encouraging responsible consumption. This study examines the attributes and behaviors of 681 high frequency (heavy-user wine consumers in the US, based on a price segmentation of High, Moderate, and Low Spenders. For this study, price segmentation was defined as the price typically paid for a bottle of wine for home consumption. Significant differences were discovered based on gender, age, income, wine involvement, shopping channel, ecommerce/social media usage and other key areas. Implications for marketing managers as well as areas of future research are described.

  11. Poverty, Policy and Price Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters in which different aspects of the relationship between international commodity markets and domestic food markets are explored. What motivates the analysis is the recent surge in international commodity prices and the controversy over the poverty...... using a Bayesian simulation methodology. Three main findings emerge from the analysis. Firstly, it seems that domestic rather than global or regional shocks are the main drivers of domestic food prices in all regions. Secondly, global factors have gained importance since 2005. Food inflation...... on the international commodity markets. The fourth paper argues that subsidy programmes can have a destabilizing effect on a country’s inflation in times of surging commodity prices if these lead to chronic public deficits. In the empirical analysis we compare the recent inflation experiences of Egypt, which has...

  12. High Generic Drug Prices and Market Competition: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, Chintan V; Kesselheim, Aaron S; Fox, Erin R; Qiu, Peihua; Hartzema, Abraham

    2017-08-01

    Prices for some generic drugs have increased in recent years, adversely affecting patients who rely on them. To determine the association between market competition levels and the change in generic drug prices in the United States. Retrospective cohort study. Prescription claims from commercial health plans between 2008 and 2013. The 5.5 years of data were divided into 11 study periods of 6 months each. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)-calculated by summing the squares of individual manufacturers' market shares, with higher values indicating a less competitive market-and average drug prices were estimated for the generic drugs in each period. The HHI value estimated in the baseline period (first half of 2008) was modeled as a fixed covariate. Models estimated price changes over time by level of competition, adjusting for drug shortages, market size, and dosage forms. From 1.08 billion prescription claims, a cohort of 1120 generic drugs was identified. After adjustment, drugs with quadropoly (HHI value of 2500, indicating relatively high levels of competition), duopoly (HHI value of 5000), near-monopoly (HHI value of 8000), and monopoly (HHI value of 10 000) levels of baseline competition were associated with price changes of -31.7% (95% CI, -34.4% to -28.9%), -11.8% (CI, -18.6% to -4.4%), 20.1% (CI, 5.5% to 36.6%), and 47.4% (CI, 25.4% to 73.2%), respectively, over the study period. Study findings may not be generalizable to drugs that became generic after 2008. Market competition levels were associated with a change in generic drug prices. Such measurements may be helpful in identifying older prescription drugs at higher risk for price change in the future. None.

  13. The Role of Incompleteness in Commodity Futures Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi eKanamura

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a convenience yield-based pricing for commodity futures, which embeds incompleteness of commodity futures markets in convenience yields. By using the pricing method, we conduct empirical analyses of the prices of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX in order to assess the incompleteness of energy futures markets. We show that the fluctuation from the incompleteness is partly driven by the fluctuation from convenience yields. In addition, it is shown that the incompleteness of natural gas futures market is more highlighted than the incompleteness of WTI crude oil and heating oil futures markets. We apply the implied market price of risk from the NYMEX data to pricing an Asian call option written on WTI crude oil futures. Finally, we try to apply the market incompleteness analysis to the post-crisis periods after 2009.

  14. Electro-mechanical power coupling system for PHEV with high price-performance ratio

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Federmann Florian; Yue CHENG; Xin LI; Bo ZHANG; Jia-jia XIE; Yang YU

    2014-01-01

    The price-performance ratio of PHEV determines its market penetration.Besides en-gine and battery,the power coupling system including traction motor and automatic transmission is a key influence factor of system performance and costs.This article introduces an electro-me-chanical power coupling system for PHEV with high price-performance ratio,which integrates an electro-mechanical CVT and a flat traction motor.As an example,a PHEV system is configured to conform the vehicle dynamic specifications.

  15. Export Competitiveness of Textile Commodities: A Panel Data Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Arora, Tarun

    2015-01-01

    The Paper assesses the export competitiveness of top fifteen textile products (different for each export destination) at 6 digit level of HS classification exported by India to top seven textile export destinations by using both price and income export elasticities. The export elasticities are estimated using dynamic panel data approach for each country separately. Commodity specific elasticities are further estimated to forecast the exports of commodities exported to respective export destin...

  16. Pricing and Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non-competitive...... (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However...

  17. Availability and Price of High Quality Day Care and Female Employment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Marianne

    In this paper I analyse to what degree availability and price of high quality publicly subsidised childcare affects female employment for women living in couples following maternity leave. The results show that unrestricted access to day care has a significantly positive effct on female employment...

  18. Statistical properties of short term price trends in high frequency stock market data

    CERN Document Server

    Sieczka, P; Sieczka, Pawe{\\l}; Ho{\\l}yst, Janusz A.

    2007-01-01

    We investigated distributions of short term price trends for high frequency stock market data. A number of trends as a function of their lengths was measured. We found that such a distribution does not fit to results following from an uncorrelated stochastic process. We proposed a simple model with a memory that gives a qualitative agreement with real data.

  19. Competitively priced hydrogen via high-efficiency nuclear electrolysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escher, W. J. D.; Donakowski, T. D.

    1977-01-01

    A fully dedicated nuclear-electrolytic hydrogen-production facility, based on advanced (1985) technology, has been synthesized and assessed at the conceptual level. The facility integrates an HTGR operating a binary shaftpower-extraction cycle at 980 C top temperature, direct dc electricity generation via acyclic generators, and high-current density high-pressure electrolyzers based on the solid polymer electrolyte approach. All subsystems are close-coupled and optimally interfaced. Pipeline-pressure hydrogen and coproduct oxygen are produced at 6900 kPa. On consistent costing bases, the advanced facility concept was found to provide hydrogen costs that were approximately half those associated with conventional, contemporary-technology nuclear electrolysis. The nuclear heat-to-hydrogen energy conversion efficiency for the advanced system was estimated as 43%, against 25% for the baseline present-day approach.

  20. Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuper, Gerard H.

    2012-01-01

    This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of marketing

  1. Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Lihong Lu McPhail; Bruce A. Babcock

    2008-01-01

    High commodity prices have increased interest in the impacts of federal ethanol policies. We present a stochastic, short-run structural model of U.S. corn, ethanol, and gasoline markets to estimate the price and welfare impacts of alternative policies on producers and consumers of corn, ethanol, and gasoline. The three federal policies that we consider are the Renewable Fuels Standard, the blenders tax credit, and the tariff on imported ethanol. Our model examines the impact of these policies...

  2. The price level and monetary policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Most central banks are required to or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is which index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action in order to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, for overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

  3. Pricing and Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...

  4. Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Kumar GUPTA

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available With the current pace of growth, India would emerge as a major player in the international market in terms of commodity consumption, production and trade. Going by trade volume and also the possibly as an identifiable influence on the price making process on the essential commodities, the futures and spot markets have shown major variations. Increased volatility in asset prices has been a major reason behind the integration of domestic financial markets with the international financial sector accentuating the demand for the trading in the derivative market. Though organized commodity trading has been in from the nineteenth century in India, the commodity derivative markets in the new form with nationwide electronic trading and access have opened the gates for speculators, hedgers and other market participants to capitalize on the development. The robust growth of the commodity markets can be observed in terms of number of commodities trade volumes and growing number of both the market participants and the commodity exchanges. Liquidity booms reflected by loose monetary policy are responsible for major surge in commodity prices globally in addition to direct tangible impacts of oil prices especially in developing countries with heavy oil imports like India. Futures markets are created to fulfill genuine desires economic functions of hedging and price discovery. But, enormous futures trading observed on the commodity exchanges have raised a host of issues like inflation guided by the fuelling principle implying the direct relationship between volatility and inflation. Huge price volatility in futures segment on the commodity exchanges has therefore raised concerns relating to the market efficiencies, infrastructure and knowledge and also their consequential impact on cash markets. The demand and supply side of the commodity price mechanism is traditionally governed by numerous factors including the climatic conditions, availability of critical

  5. Targeted advertising, promotion, and price for menthol cigarettes in California high school neighborhoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa; Schleicher, Nina C; Dauphinee, Amanda L; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2012-01-01

    To describe advertising, promotions, and pack prices for the leading brands of menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes near California high schools and to examine their associations with school and neighborhood demographics. In stores (n = 407) within walking distance (0.8 km [1/2 mile]) of California high schools (n = 91), trained observers counted ads for menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes and collected data about promotions and prices for Newport and Marlboro, the leading brand in each category. Multilevel modeling examined the proportion of all cigarette advertising for any menthol brand, the proportion of stores with sales promotions, and the lowest advertised pack price in relation to store types and school/neighborhood demographics. For each 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of Black students, the proportion of menthol advertising increased by 5.9 percentage points (e.g., from an average of 25.7%-31.6%), the odds of a Newport promotion were 50% higher (95% CI = 1.01, 2.22), and the cost of Newport was 12 cents lower (95% CI = -0.18, -0.06). By comparison, the odds of a promotion and the price for Marlboro, the leading brand of nonmenthol cigarettes, were unrelated to any school or neighborhood demographics. In high school neighborhoods, targeted advertising exposes Blacks to more promotions and lower prices for the leading brand of menthol cigarettes. This evidence contradicts the manufacturer's claims that the availability of its promotions is not based on race/ethnicity. It also highlights the need for tobacco control policies that would limit disparities in exposure to retail marketing for cigarettes.

  6. Direction of Exports of Commercial Agricultural Commodities

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    Agricultural commodities like tea, coffee, spices, oilseeds, cotton and cashew can be grouped under cash crops. They are traditional export items, which aggregate to 50% of total agricultural exports by India. These items are ready for consumption after some value addition. They are used as raw material in food and other industries. The commodities can be ranked high in hierarchy of demands after food items like wheat and rice. The economic status of the consumer plays a significant role in t...

  7. The research on financialization of commodity market to price undulatory property—A case study on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) WTI crude oil%商品市场的金融化对价格波动性的影响研究——以纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)WTI原油为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张华

    2012-01-01

    This paper is committed to the financialization of commodity markets affect the price volatility, especially with respect to hedging transactions, speculative trading will affect the price volatility. In terms of the empirical application, we considered that the variable is a crude oil futures prices, we used the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) WTI crude oil-related data, the net position of non-commercial participants in the net spread, non-commercial participants, non-the total commercial positions of the participants, non-commercial participants" positions and positions the ratio of the total, and the ratio of the positions and non-commercial participants in the futures market trading volume. The empirical studies have shown that non-commercial participants, speculation will increase the volatility of oil prices. Or put it in a broader concept, the financialization of oil makes the oil more like an investment tool rather than a commodity, and increased its price volatility. Secondly, the market price trend will be some common views, the price will enter a more stable channel after a period of frequent trading. Of course, this may be due to data issues need to be further argument.%本文致力于研究商品市场的金融化如何影响价格的波动性,特别是相对于对冲交易,投机交易将如何影响价格的波动性。在本文的实证应用方面,我们考虑的变量是原油期货价格,在这里我们使用纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)WTI原油相关的数据,非商业参与者的净价差,非商业参与者的净头寸,非商业参与者的头寸总额,非商业参与者的头寸和头寸总额的比率,和非商业参与者的头寸和期货市场交易量的比率。实证研究表明,非商业参与者的投机活动将会增加石油价格的波动性。或者把它放人一个更广泛的概念,石油的金融化使得石油更像是一种投资工具而不是一种商品,并增加了其价格的波动性

  8. Indian agricultural commodity derivatives market – In conversation with S Sivakumar, Divisional Chief Executive, Agri Business Division, ITC Ltd.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabina Rajib

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Though the agricultural sector contributes significantly to the Indian economy, it faces several bottlenecks, one of those being the antiquated laws governing agricultural marketing and price discovery, leading to low price realization by Indian farmers. In India, six national level exchanges offer commodity derivatives contracts on commodities, with some having electronic spot exchanges to facilitate spot trading of commodities. However, farmers' participation in these exchanges has been poor. ITC-ABD, one of the largest aggregators and exporters of Indian agri-commodities, has started using these exchange platforms to hedge price risk. With experience of over three decades in the agricultural sector, Mr. S. Sivakumar has a deep understanding of the commodity markets and the needs of Indian farmers. This interview aims to get an insight into his views on increasing farmers' participation in commodity derivatives trading and more importantly, to understand ITC-ABD's commodity hedging strategy.

  9. [Formation and evolution of commodity specification and grade of traditional Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng-Ying; Wang, Hai-Yang; Li, Jian; Zhan, Zhi-Lai; Yang, Guang

    2016-03-01

    As an important reference index to evaluate the quality of Chinese medicinal materials, the commodity specification and grade of traditional Chinese medicine has an effect on the medicinal material's price, can promote "high quality and high price" of the traditional Chinese medicine, prompt market transactions more convenient and standard, and has a great significance to the development of the whole traditional Chinese medicine industry. The formation of traditional Chinese medicine specifications and grades experienced a long historical development process. In order to provide the reference for modification of the product specifications and grades standards and management of traditional Chinese medicine products, the author consulted a large number of materia medica books and related references, sorted and analyzed the historical development process. The author divided the formation and development process into four stages, including germination stage before the Southern and Northern Dynasties, development stage of Tang and Song Dynasty, mature period of the Ming and Qing Dynasties and the inheritance development stage since the foundation of the People's Republic. The author believes that the clinical curative effect is the driving force to promote the development of commodity specifications and grades. In addition, the national pharmaceutical policy, international status, the level of science and technology also influence the development of commodity specifications and grades in some extents. Finally, the author provides three piece of suggestions for the modification of the product specifications and grades standards, according to the historical development rule. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  10. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2008-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2008 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2007 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. National reserves and reserve base information for most mineral commodities found in this report, including those for the United States, are derived from a variety of sources. The ideal source of such information would be comprehensive evaluations that apply the same criteria to deposits in different geographic areas and report the results by country. In the absence of such evaluations, national reserves and reserve base estimates compiled by countries for selected mineral commodities are a primary source of national reserves and reserve base information. Lacking national assessment information by governments, sources such as academic articles, company reports, common business practice, presentations by company representatives, and trade journal articles, or a combination of these, serve as the basis for national reserves and reserve base information reported in the mineral commodity sections of this publication. A national estimate may be assembled from the following: historically reported reserves and reserve base information carried for years without alteration because no new information is available; historically reported reserves and reserve base reduced by the amount of historical production; and company reported reserves. International minerals availability studies conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, before 1996, and estimates of identified resources by an international collaborative effort (the International Strategic Minerals

  11. 78 FR 52426 - Retail Commodity Transactions Under Commodity Exchange Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-23

    ... COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 1 RIN 3038-AD64 Retail Commodity Transactions Under Commodity Exchange Act AGENCY... (``Interpretation'') regarding the meaning of the term ``actual delivery,'' as set forth in the Commodity Exchange... the statutory language. In response to the comments received, the Commission has determined to...

  12. 76 FR 77670 - Retail Commodity Transactions Under Commodity Exchange Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-14

    ... COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 1 RIN 3038-AD64 Retail Commodity Transactions Under Commodity Exchange Act AGENCY... ``actual delivery'' as set forth in section 2(c)(2)(D)(ii)(III)(aa) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA... requests comment on whether this interpretation accurately construes the statutory language. In the...

  13. Factors that Influence the Price of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Rare Earth Elements, and Zn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papp, John F.; Bray, E. Lee; Edelstein, Daniel L.; Fenton, Michael D.; Guberman, David E.; Hedrick, James B.; Jorgenson, John D.; Kuck, Peter H.; Shedd, Kim B.; Tolcin, Amy C.

    2008-01-01

    This report is based on a presentation delivered at The 12th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar, March 17-20, 2008, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., about the factors that influence prices for aluminum, cadmium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, nickel, rare earth elements, and zinc. These are a diverse group of metals that are of interest to the battery recycling industry. Because the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) closely monitors, yet neither buys nor sells, metal commodities, it is an unbiased source of metal price information and analysis. The authors used information about these and other metals collected and published by the USGS (U.S. production, trade, stocks, and prices and world production) and internationally (consumption and stocks by country) from industry organizations, because metal markets are influenced by activities and events over the entire globe. Long-term prices in this report, represented by unit values, were adjusted to 1998 constant dollars to remove the effects of inflation. A previous USGS study in this subject area was 'Economic Drivers of Mineral Supply' by Lorie A. Wagner, Daniel E. Sullivan, and John L. Sznopek (USGS Open File Report 02-335). By seeking a common cause for common behavior of prices among the various metal commodities, the authors found that major factors that influence prices of metal commodities were international events such as wars and recessions, and national events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and economic growth in China, which started its open door policy in the 1970s but did not have significant market impact until the 1990s. Metal commodity prices also responded to commodity-specific events such as tariff or usage changes or mine strikes. It is shown that the prices of aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc are at historic highs, that world stocks are at (or near) historic lows, and that China's consumption of these metals had increased substantially, making it the world

  14. Food commodities from microalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draaisma, René B; Wijffels, René H; Slegers, P M Ellen; Brentner, Laura B; Roy, Adip; Barbosa, Maria J

    2013-04-01

    The prospect of sustainable production of food ingredients from photoautotrophic microalgae was reviewed. Clearly, there is scope for microalgal oils to replace functions of major vegetable oils, and in addition to deliver health benefits to food products. Furthermore, with a limited production surface, a substantial portion of the European Union market could be supplied with edible oils and proteins from microalgae. Yet, before microalgal ingredients can become genuinely sustainable and cost effective alternatives for current food commodities, major breakthroughs in production technology and in biorefinery approaches are required. Moreover, before market introduction, evidence on safety of novel microalgal ingredients, is needed. In general, we conclude that microalgae have a great potential as a sustainable feedstock for food commodities.

  15. 76 FR 53533 - Notification of New Pricing Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-26

    ... United States Mint Notification of New Pricing Methodology ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The United States Mint is implementing a new pricing methodology for its commemorative gold coins to mitigate the effect that fluctuating gold commodity costs has on the pricing of these products. The new pricing methodology...

  16. Assessing Unit-Price Related Remifentanil Choice in Rhesus Monkeys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galuska, Chad M.; Winger, Gail; Woods, James H.; Hursh, Steven R.

    2006-01-01

    Given a commodity available at different prices, a unit-price account of choice predicts preference for the cheaper alternative. This experiment determined if rhesus monkeys preferred remifentanil (an ultra-short-acting [mu]-opioid agonist) delivered at a lower unit price over a higher-priced remifentanil alternative (Phases 1 and 3). Choice…

  17. Lattice QCD Production on a Commodity Cluster at Fermilab

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    D.Holmgren; P.Mackenzie; 等

    2001-01-01

    Large scale QCD Monte Carlo calculations have typically been performed on either commercial supercomputers or specially built massively parallel computers such as Fermilab's ACPMAPS.Commodity clusters equipped with high performance networking equipment present an attractive alternative,achieving superior performance to price ratios and offering clear upgrade paths.We describe the construction and results to date of Fermilab's prototype production cluster,which consists of 80 dual Pentium Ⅲsystems interconnected with Myrinet networking hardware.We describe software tools and techniques we have developed for operating system installation and administration.We discuss software optimizations using the Pentium's built-in parallel computation facilities(SSE),Finally,we present short and long term plans for the construction of larger facilities.

  18. When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Salvucci, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    Changes in relative prices of commodities consumed in different shares across income groups can be expected to alter real income differentials between these groups. Using Mozambican household budget survey and price data from 2002/03 and 2008/09, we show that once relative price increases are acc...

  19. When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Salvucci, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    Changes in relative prices of commodities consumed in different shares across income groups can be expected to alter real income differentials between these groups. Using Mozambican household budget survey and price data from 2002/03 and 2008/09, we show that once relative price increases are acc...

  20. A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajipriya, N.

    2012-10-01

    The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

  1. A material political economy: Automated Trading Desk and price prediction in high-frequency trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, Donald

    2017-04-01

    This article contains the first detailed historical study of one of the new high-frequency trading (HFT) firms that have transformed many of the world's financial markets. The study, of Automated Trading Desk (ATD), one of the earliest and most important such firms, focuses on how ATD's algorithms predicted share price changes. The article argues that political-economic struggles are integral to the existence of some of the 'pockets' of predictable structure in the otherwise random movements of prices, to the availability of the data that allow algorithms to identify these pockets, and to the capacity of algorithms to use these predictions to trade profitably. The article also examines the role of HFT algorithms such as ATD's in the epochal, fiercely contested shift in US share trading from 'fixed-role' markets towards 'all-to-all' markets.

  2. Using high performance computing and Monte Carlo simulation for pricing american options

    CERN Document Server

    Cvetanoska, Verche

    2012-01-01

    High performance computing (HPC) is a very attractive and relatively new area of research, which gives promising results in many applications. In this paper HPC is used for pricing of American options. Although the American options are very significant in computational finance; their valuation is very challenging, especially when the Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used. For getting the most accurate price for these types of options we use Quasi Monte Carlo simulation, which gives the best convergence. Furthermore, this algorithm is implemented on both GPU and CPU. Additionally, the CUDA architecture is used for harnessing the power and the capability of the GPU for executing the algorithm in parallel which is later compared with the serial implementation on the CPU. In conclusion this paper gives the reasons and the advantages of applying HPC in computational finance.

  3. Asset Market Linkages in a Regime Switching Environment: Evidence from Commodity and Stock Markets in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelly Singhal

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Time series models investigating the linkages between various asset markets (Commodity and Equity in India have assumed a symmetric and linear relationship between them. They examine these interrelationships by assuming the presence of a uniform economic state. However the returns from commodity futures and stock market do not show a continuous trend but exhibit time varying behaviour i.e. the returns of stocks might be higher in a certain economic condition and it may fall as the economic environment changes due to financial crises, oil price rise, rupee depreciation etc. Similarly the return of commodities is also subject to variation with the changing economic conditions due to which the basic assumptions of stationary and linearity of time series models gets refuted. Therefore, this paper empirically examines the interrelationships between commodity futures (Energy, Metal and Agriculture and stock markets in dynamic economic states by employing Markov Regime Switching model proposed by Hamilton (2005 which has the capability of capturing temporal asymmetries and nonlinear dynamics of time series. For each market a composite index indicating the overall movement and performance of a particular investment asset has been considered. In order to provide robust results this paper uses daily data from 2006 to 2014 which significantly represents different states in the Indian Economy. The result of the study confirms the impact of economic environment on Indian commodity and stock markets and validates the presence of two distinct regimes: a “tranquil regime” representing the state of economic expansion and a “crisis regime” representing the state of economic decline. Additionally, the result confirms that commodities and stock markets oscillate between high and low volatility regimes and this movement is different across different commodity class (Energy, Metal and Agriculture. In a portfolio, when commodity futures are combined with stock

  4. 22 CFR 201.31 - Suppliers of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES AND PROCEDURES APPLICABLE TO COMMODITY... CFR parts 500 through 599, as from time to time amended, are complied with; and (6) The purchase price... customs of the trade shall be made by the supplier in the form of a dollar payment to USAID. Any...

  5. Commodity Tracker: Mobile Application for Food Security Monitoring in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, M. T.; Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Gourley, J. R.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Haiti Food Security Monitoring Mobile App Team

    2011-12-01

    Megan Chiu, Jason Baird, Xu Huang, Trishan de Lanerolle, Ralph Morelli, Jonathan Gourley Trinity College, Computer Science Department and Environmental Science Program, 300 Summit Street, Hartford, CT 06106 megan.chiu@trincoll.edu, Jason.baird@trincoll.edu, xu.huang@trincoll.edu, trishan.delanerolle@trincoll.edu, ralph.morelli@trincoll.edu, jonathan.gourley@trincoll.edu Price data for Haiti commodities such as rice and potatoes have been traditionally recorded by hand on paper forms for many years. The information is then entered onto computer manually, thus making the process a long and arduous one. With the development of the Haiti Commodity Tracker mobile app, we are able to make this commodity price data recording process more efficient. Officials may use this information for making inferences about the difference in commodity prices and for food distribution during critical time after natural disasters. This information can also be utilized by governments and aid agencies on their food assistance programs. Agronomists record the item prices from several sample sites in a marketplace and compare those results from other markets across the region. Due to limited connectivity in rural areas, data is first saved to the phone's database and then retransmitted to a central server via SMS messaging. The mobile app is currently being field tested by an international NGO providing agricultural aid and support in rural Haiti.

  6. 7 CFR 1599.11 - Use of commodities and sale proceeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE McGOVERN-DOLE INTERNATIONAL FOOD FOR EDUCATION AND CHILD NUTRITION... sell the donated commodities at a reasonable market price in the economy where the sale occurs. The...

  7. Trends and volatility in sub Saharan Africa’s key primary commodity exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Ocran

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Using a GARCH model the paper sought to test the hypothesis that price volatility of key Sub Saharan Africa primary commodity exports, have not changed over the past four decades. Whilst crude oil, aluminium, cocoa and six others have not experienced significant change in price volatility over the period, nine other major commodities recorded changes. Efforts need to be made to extensively diversify the portfolio of agricultural commodity exports by including new products of which price volatilities in the past decades have been reduced. This is crucial for countries that depend on up to three primary commodities for the bulk of their foreign exchange earnings. Other measures such as value addition can also help in reducing impacts of unfavourable price movements.

  8. Commodity Money Equilibrium in a Convex Trading Post Economy with Transaction Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Ross M. Starr

    2007-01-01

    Existence and efficiency of general equilibrium with commodity money is investigated in an economy where N commodities are traded at N(N-1)/2 commodity-pairwise trading posts. Trade is a resource-using activity recovering transaction costs through the spread between bid (wholesale) and ask (retail) prices. Budget constraints, enforced at each trading post separately, imply demand for a carrier of value between trading posts. Existence of general equilibrium is established under conventiona...

  9. Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lya Aklimawati; Teguh Wahyudi

    2013-01-01

    High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1)  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2) ...

  10. Effects of Health-Care Services and Commodities Cost on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-09-14

    Sep 14, 2017 ... services and commodities cost on the patients at the primary health facilities in Zaria ... the payment for health- care services is a major problem in many developing ... Standardization of prices of services and commodities and the ..... The demand for an essential service might be low not necessarily ...

  11. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Günther, H.O.; Beek, van P.; Grunow, M.; Habla, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply

  12. 17 CFR 4.13 - Exemption from registration as a commodity pool operator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... TRADING COMMISSION COMMODITY POOL OPERATORS AND COMMODITY TRADING ADVISORS General Provisions, Definitions... offered and sold without marketing to the public in the United States; (ii) At all times, the pool meets... market price per unit, and for each such option position by multiplying the number of contracts by...

  13. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Günther, H.O.; Beek, van P.; Grunow, M.; Habla, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply decision

  14. Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chien-Chiang, E-mail: cclee@cm.nsysu.edu.tw; Chiu, Yi-Bin

    2011-03-15

    This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.

  15. Analysis of Dynamic Pricing of Commodities for Online Shop under the Time Value of Money%考虑资金时间价值的网店产品动态定价研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王海娟; 周永务

    2014-01-01

    在资金时间价值影响背景下,以仅有网店渠道的销售商为研究对象,为在期末能将产品销售完毕并最大化其收益,在假设顾客所订商品由卖家免费配送,并且顾客在收到产品之前可以取消订单的前提下,通过建模给出了销售商期初的最优订货量、期内价格调整的最佳次数及每阶段的最优价格的动态定价求解算法。最后的算例分析表明模型和算法是有效的,且动态定价相对于静态定价能带来更大的收益。%Under the context of the time value, a retailer only with the online shop was researched as the object. Thus, in order to sell out all products at the end of the sell time and maximize the revenue, assuming the customer can cancelltheir orders prior to the receipt of the product and the delivery is free. The seller's optimal order quantity and the dynamic pricing strategy were given through a mathematical model. Finally, Numerical example shows the effectiveness of the model and the algorithm,and the superiority of dynamic pricing strategy compared with the static strategy.

  16. High oil price compel automobile to 'slim',Light metal castings enjoy great popularity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ The fuel consumption of automobiles has a close relationship with their weight, and due to short supply and high prices of energy sources, numerous automakers are trying every means to make the automobile "slim" (or less heavy).According to available data, every 100-kg reduction in automobile weight will result in a 0.3-liter gasoline saving for every hundred kilometers of driving. Therefore, automobile parts with light weight, thin wall, excellent dimensional accuracy and high strength and toughness become the development trend.

  17. Response of the Polish Wheat Prices to the Worlds Crude Oil Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HAMULCZUK

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural commodities prices play crucial role both in farmers income determination and in price relationship establishment for the whole economy. Among the factors influencing the wheat prices, crude oil prices are considered as one of the most important. The aim of this paper was to assess the character of linkage between world crude oil prices and Polish wheat prices. Results of the research confirm the existence of such linkage although the nature and the strength of this relationship changes over time. However, the long-run relationships between the crude oil and Polish wheat prices were not proven. Moreover, growing impact of crude oil prices on Polish wheat prices over time was not detected. The results suggest that exchange rates may strongly influence wheat prices. This in turn may weaken response of Polish wheat prices in relation to world crude oil prices.

  18. Relationship between financial speculation and food prices or price volatility: applying the principles of evidence-based medicine to current debates in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozorgmehr, Kayvan; Gabrysch, Sabine; Müller, Olaf; Neuhann, Florian; Jordan, Irmgard; Knipper, Michael; Razum, Oliver

    2013-10-16

    There is an unresolved debate about the potential effects of financial speculation on food prices and price volatility. Germany's largest financial institution and leading global investment bank recently decided to continue investing in agricultural commodities, stating that there is little empirical evidence to support the notion that the growth of agricultural-based financial products has caused price increases or volatility. The statement is supported by a recently published literature review, which concludes that financial speculation does not have an adverse effect on the functioning of the agricultural commodities market. As public health professionals concerned with global food insecurity, we have appraised the methodological quality of the review using a validated and reliable appraisal tool. The appraisal revealed major shortcomings in the methodological quality of the review. These were particularly related to intransparencies in the search strategy and in the selection/presentation of studies and findings; the neglect of the possibility of publication bias; a lack of objective or rigorous criteria for assessing the scientific quality of included studies and for the formulation of conclusions. Based on the results of our appraisal, we conclude that it is not justified to reject the hypothesis that financial speculation might have adverse effects on food prices/price volatility. We hope to initiate reflections about scientific standards beyond the boundaries of disciplines and call for high quality, rigorous systematic reviews on the effects of financial speculation on food prices or price volatility.

  19. Poverty, Policy and Price Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters in which different aspects of the relationship between international commodity markets and domestic food markets are explored. What motivates the analysis is the recent surge in international commodity prices and the controversy over the poverty...... domestic goods. Households prefer the traded good which they substitute towards as their incomes increase, thus exposing themselves to world market price swings. Price transmission from international to domestic markets therefore increases with per capita income but also with income inequality. Model...... using a Bayesian simulation methodology. Three main findings emerge from the analysis. Firstly, it seems that domestic rather than global or regional shocks are the main drivers of domestic food prices in all regions. Secondly, global factors have gained importance since 2005. Food inflation...

  20. Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boisclair

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Tobacco taxation is an essential component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. However, to fully realize the benefits it is vital to understand the impact of increased taxes among high-risk subpopulations. Are they influenced to the same extent as the general population? Do they need additional measures to influence smoking behavior? The objectives of this study were to synthesize the evidence regarding differential effects of taxation and price on smoking in: youth, young adults, persons of low socio-economic status, with dual diagnoses, heavy/long-term smokers, and Aboriginal people. Using a better practices approach, a knowledge synthesis was conducted using a systematic review of the literature and an expert advisory panel. Experts were involved in developing the study plan, discussing findings, developing policy recommendations, and identifying priorities for future research. Most studies found that raising cigarette prices through increased taxes is a highly effective measure for reducing smoking among youth, young adults, and persons of low socioeconomic status. However, there is a striking lack of evidence about the impact of increasing cigarette prices on smoking behavior in heavy/long-term smokers, persons with a dual diagnosis and Aboriginals. Given their high prevalence of smoking, urgent attention is needed to develop effective policies for the six subpopulations reviewed. These findings will be of value to policy-makers and researchers in their efforts to improve the effectiveness of tobacco control measures, especially with subpopulations at most risk. Although specific studies are needed, tobacco taxation is a key policy measure for driving success.

  1. From quantum mechanics to finance: Microfoundations for jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in diffusion price processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Christof

    2017-03-01

    We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior and provide microfoundations. After we link the endogenous agent behavior to price dynamics we establish the circumstances under which the dynamics converge to an Itô-diffusion price processes in the large market limit.

  2. Petroleum price; Prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurice, J

    2001-07-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  3. Conceptual Model of Supply Chain Structure Mapping - A Case of Subsidized LPG Commodity in Yogyakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, Joko; Thoif, Afifuddin; Fitri Alindira, Aulia

    2016-01-01

    — In 2007, the government launched a conversion program of kerosene to LPG by issuing a Presidential Regulation No. 104/2007 on Supply, Distribution and Pricing LPG 3 Kg. Article 2 on the regulation says that setting the supply, distribution, and pricing of LPG 3 Kg include planning an annual sales volume of enterprises, the reference price and the retail price and conditions of export and import of LPG 3 Kg in order to reduce subsidies Kerosene especially to divert the use of kerosene according to government policy. In principle, the purpose of this policy is to reduce energy subsidies on commodities, especially Kerosene. Although the government claimed the conversion program is success, there are few problems arising from conversion program. In 2014, many scarcity and high price of LPG 3 Kg were reported. In this case, Pertamina was given full authority to manage all supply chain and distribution. Because the root of the problem of scarcity that occurred in the supply chain system has not been explained, the proposed solutions will also be partial and not comprehensive. Thus, this research will build a structural map of the causes of supply chain system LPG 3 Kg, as well as providing a comprehensive picture of system dynamics of LPG 3 Kg supply chain system which applied in Indonesia. And the result is expected as in form of Causal Loop Diagram of supply chain system.

  4. Introduction and utilisation of high priced HCV medicines across Europe; implications for the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winnie de Bruijn

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV is a widespread transmittable disease with a diagnosed prevalence of 2.0%. Fortunately, it is now curable in most patients. Sales of medicines to treat HCV infection grew 2.7% per year between 2004 and 2011, enhanced by the launch of the protease inhibitors (PIs boceprevir (BCV and telaprevir (TVR in addition to ribavirin and pegylated interferon (pegIFN. Costs will continue to rise with new treatments including sofosbuvir, which now include interferon free regimens. Objective: Assess the uptake of BCV and TVR across Europe from a health authority perspective to offer future guidance on dealing with new high cost medicines. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of medicines to treat HCV (pegIFN, ribavirin, BCV and TVR among European countries from 2008 to 2013. Utilisation measured in defined daily doses (DDDs/ 1000 patients/ quarter (DIQs and expenditure in Euros/ DDD. Health authority activities to influence treatments categorised using the 4E methodology (Education, Engineering, Economics and Enforcement. Results: Similar uptake of BCV and TVR among European countries and regions, ranging from 0.5 DIQ in Denmark, Netherlands and Slovenia to 1.5 DIQ in Tayside and Catalonia in 2013. However, different utilisation of the new PIs versus ribavirin indicates differences in dual versus triple therapy, which is down to factors including physician preference and genotypes. Reimbursed prices for BCV and TVR were comparable across countries. Conclusion: There was reasonable consistency in the utilisation of BCV and TVR among European countries in comparison with other high priced medicines. This may reflect the social demand to limit the transmission of HCV. However, the situation is changing with new curative medicines for HCV genotype 1 (GT1 with potentially an appreciable budget impact. These concerns have resulted in different prices negotiations across countries, with their impact

  5. Introduction and Utilization of High Priced HCV Medicines across Europe; Implications for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Winnie; Ibáñez, Cristina; Frisk, Pia; Bak Pedersen, Hanne; Alkan, Ali; Vella Bonanno, Patricia; Brkičić, Ljiljana S.; Bucsics, Anna; Dedet, Guillaume; Eriksen, Jaran; Fadare, Joseph O.; Fürst, Jurij; Gallego, Gisselle; Godói, Isabella P.; Guerra Júnior, Augusto A.; Gürsöz, Hakkı; Jan, Saira; Jones, Jan; Joppi, Roberta; Kerman, Saim; Laius, Ott; Madzikwa, Newman; Magnússon, Einar; Maticic, Mojca; Markovic-Pekovic, Vanda; Massele, Amos; Ogunleye, Olayinka; O'Leary, Aisling; Piessnegger, Jutta; Sermet, Catherine; Simoens, Steven; Tiroyakgosi, Celda; Truter, Ilse; Thyberg, Magnus; Tomekova, Kristina; Wladysiuk, Magdalena; Vandoros, Sotiris; Vural, Elif H.; Zara, Corinne; Godman, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Background: Infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a widespread transmittable disease with a diagnosed prevalence of 2.0%. Fortunately, it is now curable in most patients. Sales of medicines to treat HCV infection grew 2.7% per year between 2004 and 2011, enhanced by the launch of the protease inhibitors (PIs) boceprevir (BCV) and telaprevir (TVR) in addition to ribavirin and pegylated interferon (pegIFN). Costs will continue to rise with new treatments including sofosbuvir, which now include interferon free regimens. Objective: Assess the uptake of BCV and TVR across Europe from a health authority perspective to offer future guidance on dealing with new high cost medicines. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of medicines to treat HCV (pegIFN, ribavirin, BCV and TVR) among European countries from 2008 to 2013. Utilization measured in defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 patients/quarter (DIQs) and expenditure in Euros/DDD. Health authority activities to influence treatments categorized using the 4E methodology (Education, Engineering, Economics and Enforcement). Results: Similar uptake of BCV and TVR among European countries and regions, ranging from 0.5 DIQ in Denmark, Netherlands and Slovenia to 1.5 DIQ in Tayside and Catalonia in 2013. However, different utilization of the new PIs vs. ribavirin indicates differences in dual vs. triple therapy, which is down to factors including physician preference and genotypes. Reimbursed prices for BCV and TVR were comparable across countries. Conclusion: There was reasonable consistency in the utilization of BCV and TVR among European countries in comparison with other high priced medicines. This may reflect the social demand to limit the transmission of HCV. However, the situation is changing with new curative medicines for HCV genotype 1 (GT1) with potentially an appreciable budget impact. These concerns have resulted in different prices across countries, with their impact on budgets and patient outcomes

  6. Commodities, energy and environmental finance

    CERN Document Server

    Ludkovski, Michael; Sircar, Ronnie

    2015-01-01

    This volume is a collection of chapters covering the latest developments in applications of financial mathematics and statistics to topics in energy, commodity financial markets and environmental economics. The research presented is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the Fields Institute Focus Program on Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance in August 2013. The authors include applied mathematicians, economists and industry practitioners, providing for a multi-disciplinary spectrum of perspectives on the subject. The volume consists of four sections: Electricity Markets; Real Options; Trading in Commodity Markets; and Oligopolistic Models for Energy Production. Taken together, the chapters give a comprehensive summary of the current state of the art in quantitative analysis of commodities and energy finance. The topics covered include structural models of electricity markets, financialization of commodities, valuation of commodity real options, game-theory analysis of ...

  7. A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsuk Kwak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

  8. Continuity of the equilibrium price density and its uses in peak-load pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horsley, A.; Wrobel, A.J.

    2005-01-01

    With L∞ as the commodity space, the equilibrium price density is shown to be a continuous function of the commodity characteristics. The result is based on symmetry ideas from the Hardy-Littlewood-Pólya theory of rearrangements. It includes, but is not limited to, the case of symmetric

  9. Continuity of the equilibrium price density and its uses in peak-load pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horsley, A.; Wrobel, A.J.

    2005-01-01

    With L∞ as the commodity space, the equilibrium price density is shown to be a continuous function of the commodity characteristics. The result is based on symmetry ideas from the Hardy-Littlewood-Pólya theory of rearrangements. It includes, but is not limited to, the case of symmetric (rearrangemen

  10. Trends in economic scarcity of U. S. timber commodities. Forest Service Resource Bulletin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skog, K.; Risbrudt, C.

    1982-04-01

    Scarcity of natural resources has been of concern to industrial societies since Malthus developed his theory of population growth and resource use in the late 18th century. Barnett and Morse, in 1963, tested the widely held premise that natural resource commodities are becoming more economically scarce. They concluded that of all major natural resource commodities-agricultural, mineral, and timber-only timber commodities were increasing in economic scarcity. In particular, sawlogs have shown consistent increases in economic scarcity since the late 1800's. Data were prepared for the Barnett and Morse study by Potter and Christy and subsequently updated by Potter and Christy and subsequently updated by Manthy to 1973. This paper extends and expands these data series on timber commodities. Specifically, information will be presented on one indicator of economic scarcity-trends in real prices (prices deflated by the general producer price index).

  11. 7 CFR 17.5 - Contracts between commodity suppliers and importers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... commodity. (4) The supplier's sales price may not exceed the prevailing range of export market prices as... the importer. (ii) The importer shall issue the IFB in the United States and shall open all offers in... between the supplier and the importer may not exceed that quantity approved by the Pub. L. 480 Operations...

  12. The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radukić Snežana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the Republic of Serbia, food accounts for a significant share in the consumer price index through which the inflation is statistically expressed. Therefore, in considerations of the basic factors of increase in the general price level, a special emphasis is placed on the specific features of the market of agricultural-food products. The aim of this research is to peruse the effect of the characteristics of the food market in Serbia on the inflation rate. High volatility of food prices is present because of the instability of this market, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations of supply and the effect of natural factors. Bearing in mind that the increase in food prices is the main determinant of the increase in the inflation rate, the indirect state control is very important so as to maintain price stability. Special importance is attached to the following instruments of economic policy: commodity reserves, storage policy, and fiscal and foreign trade policy.

  13. The Role of Speculation in the Determination of Energy Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umar M. Mustapha

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to evaluate the role of speculation in the determination of global energy prices. Designed as a case study, five major oil producing countries are the focus of this positivistic study: Nigeria, Mexico, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Data is collected through secondary sources. One-tailed and two-tailed tests carried out on the relationship between speculation and oil prices for each of the five countries yield critical values lower than the alpha. Thus, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternate hypothesis that ‘there is a significant and positive correlation between commodity derivatives (oil futures and oil prices’. The study found that while there is a positive relationship between speculation in the commodity derivatives market and oil prices, such a relationship is at best weak and attributes the high prices to several factors, including political instability, high and rising demand from overheating economies such as China, and falling production levels, among others. The paper emphasized the need to enhance the physical and financial transparency of the energy market, as well as the operation of the supply and demand fundamentals, including regulating against insider trading and market manipulation practices, strengthening the reporting requirements of the dealers in the market, and strengthening capital adequacy and margin requirements.

  14. Stochastic Speculative Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelson, Paul A.

    1971-01-01

    Because a commodity like wheat can be carried forward from one period to the next, speculative arbitrage serves to link its prices at different points of time. Since, however, the size of the harvest depends on complicated probability processes impossible to forecast with certainty, the minimal model for understanding market behavior must involve stochastic processes. The present study, on the basis of the axiom that it is the expected rather than the known-for-certain prices which enter into all arbitrage relations and carryover decisions, determines the behavior of price as the solution to a stochastic-dynamic-programming problem. The resulting stationary time series possesses an ergodic state and normative properties like those often observed for real-world bourses. PMID:16591903

  15. Mineral commodity profiles: nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Deborah A.

    2004-01-01

    Overview -- Nitrogen (N) is an essential element of life and a part of all animal and plant proteins. As a part of the DNA and RNA molecules, nitrogen is an essential constituent of each individual's genetic blueprint. As an essential element in the chlorophyll molecule, nitrogen is vital to a plant's ability to photosynthesize. Some crop plants, such as alfalfa, peas, peanuts, and soybeans, can convert atmospheric nitrogen into a usable form by a process referred to as 'fixation.' Most of the nitrogen that is available for crop production, however, comes from decomposing animal and plant waste or from commercially produced fertilizers. Commercial fertilizers contain nitrogen in the form of ammonium and/or nitrate or in a form that is quickly converted to the ammonium or nitrate form once the fertilizer is applied to the soil. Ammonia is generally the source of nitrogen in fertilizers. Anhydrous ammonia is commercially produced by reacting nitrogen with hydrogen under high temperatures and pressures. The source of nitrogen is the atmosphere, which is almost 80 percent nitrogen. Hydrogen is derived from a variety of raw materials, which include water, and crude oil, coal, and natural gas hydrocarbons. Nitrogen-based fertilizers are produced from ammonia feedstocks through a variety of chemical processes. Small quantities of nitrates are produced from mineral resources principally in Chile. In 2002, anhydrous ammonia and other nitrogen materials were produced in more than 70 countries. Global ammonia production was 108 million metric tons (Mt) of contained nitrogen. With 28 percent of this total, China was the largest producer of ammonia. Asia contributed 46 percent of total world ammonia production, and countries of the former U.S.S.R. represented 13 percent. North America also produced 13 percent of the total; Western Europe, 9 percent; the Middle East, 7 percent; Central America and South America, 5 percent; Eastern Europe, 3 percent; and Africa and Oceania

  16. Uma avaliação da volatilidade dos preços da soja no mercado internacional com dados de alta frequência An evaluation of the volatility of soybeans prices in the international market using high frequency data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Domingues Simões

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho foram avaliados os ajustes de cinco modelos para previsão da variância, utilizando-se uma série de preços de soja, uma commodity negociada na bolsa de mercadorias de Chicago (CBOT, com dados de alta frequência. Os modelos utilizados foram do tipo GARCH, FIGARCH e ARFIMA. Foi possível observar características desta série de preços de uma commodity negociada globalmente que se apresentaram inteiramente diferentes daquelas de ativos financeiros anteriormente estudados, possivelmente em virtude da característica contínua dos preços observados, induzida pela sua negociação global independente de pregões com início e fim. Foi possível concluir que a série de dados de alta frequência encerra informações adicionais às séries de dados diários, também no caso estudado de preços da soja, e que o tradicional modelo GARCH(1,1 tem um bom desempenho também no caso dos dados de alta frequência, assim como aqueles da família ARFIMA. Recomenda-se mais investigação para o caso dos modelos FIGARCH, procurando um melhor ajuste.In the present study, five volatility prediction models were evaluated using a series of soybeans prices, a commodity traded in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, using high-frequency data. The models used belonged to the GARCH, FIGARCH and ARFIMA families. It was possible to observe entirely different characteristics of this commodity price series, which is negotiated on a global scale, from those of the financial assets previously studied, possibly due to the continuity of the price series studied allowed by the global negotiation nature of this trade, fully independent of daily exchange markets subject to opening and closing times. It was possible to conclude that the high-frequency price data do provide additional information to the traditional daily time series, also in the case of soybeans, and that the traditional GARCH(1,1 model also has good performance on the high-frequency price data just

  17. Applications of GARCH models to energy commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphreys, H. Brett

    This thesis uses GARCH methods to examine different aspects of the energy markets. The first part of the thesis examines seasonality in the variance. This study modifies the standard univariate GARCH models to test for seasonal components in both the constant and the persistence in natural gas, heating oil and soybeans. These commodities exhibit seasonal price movements and, therefore, may exhibit seasonal variances. In addition, the heating oil model is tested for a structural change in variance during the Gulf War. The results indicate the presence of an annual seasonal component in the persistence for all commodities. Out-of-sample volatility forecasting for natural gas outperforms standard forecasts. The second part of this thesis uses a multivariate GARCH model to examine volatility spillovers within the crude oil forward curve and between the London and New York crude oil futures markets. Using these results the effect of spillovers on dynamic hedging is examined. In addition, this research examines cointegration within the oil markets using investable returns rather than fixed prices. The results indicate the presence of strong volatility spillovers between both markets, weak spillovers from the front of the forward curve to the rest of the curve, and cointegration between the long term oil price on the two markets. The spillover dynamic hedge models lead to a marginal benefit in terms of variance reduction, but a substantial decrease in the variability of the dynamic hedge; thereby decreasing the transactions costs associated with the hedge. The final portion of the thesis uses portfolio theory to demonstrate how the energy mix consumed in the United States could be chosen given a national goal to reduce the risks to the domestic macroeconomy of unanticipated energy price shocks. An efficient portfolio frontier of U.S. energy consumption is constructed using a covariance matrix estimated with GARCH models. The results indicate that while the electric

  18. Pricing Exotic Options under a High-Order Markovian Regime Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wai-Ki Ching

    2007-01-01

    by a discrete-time Markovian regime-switching process driven by an observable, high-order Markov model (HOMM. We assume that the market interest rate, the drift, and the volatility of the underlying risky asset's return switch over time according to the states of the HOMM, which are interpreted as the states of an economy. We will then employ the well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for option valuation. Moreover, we will also investigate the impact of the high-order effect of the states of the economy on the prices of some path-dependent exotic options, such as Asian options, lookback options, and barrier options.

  19. The Commodity and its Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høst, Jeppe Engset

    2015-01-01

    This chapter examines fishing quota as a commodity in both a conceptual perspective and through ethnographic examples. Inspired by Marx’s ideas of the commodity, use-value, exchange-value, and ground rent, the chapter combines a theoretical approach with ethnographic material. The different aspec...

  20. Commodity team motivation and performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities consistent...... with a commodity team's objective of creating opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviors, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members....... In some cases, inconsistencies between these factors and the objectives of the commodity teams were associated with lower performance. The paper contributes theoretically by providing a rich description of commodity functioning, and to practice by bringing attention to a number of managerial issues...

  1. Commodity team motivation and performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    . In some cases, inconsistencies between these factors and the objectives of the commodity teams were associated with lower performance. The paper contributes theoretically by providing a rich description of commodity functioning, and to practice by bringing attention to a number of managerial issues......In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities consistent...... with a commodity team's objective of creating opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviors, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members...

  2. ALTERNATE PRICING STRATEGIES IN CONSTRUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna Mochtar

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent research findings on pricing strategies both in general and in construction are reviewed and explored. First%2C pricing strategy in general%2C mostly in the manufacturing industry%2C is reviewed. It includes the concepts of pricing strategy%2C predatory pricing%2C price wars%2C and price policy development. Second%2C pricing strategy in construction is explored. It includes various pricing models for bid price determination%2C such as the Friedman-Gates models%2C expected utility models%2C risk-pricing model%2C and the crew-day%2C multiple regression%2C and fuzzy-set pricing models. In conclusion%2C pricing strategies in construction are still predominantly based on a cost-based approach. More recent models try to close the gap between the models and the real life conditions of a bidder%5C%27s decision-making process. It appears that there are more problems in cost-based pricing as opposed to market-based pricing. Consequently%2C it is highly recommended that%2C alternative pricing approach such as that are closer to the proposed market-based pricing model need to be explored and developed for use in the construction industry. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Pricing+strategy%2C+cost-based+pricing%2C+market-based+pricing.

  3. Reconciling biofuels, sustainability and commodities demand. Pitfalls and policy options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uslu, A.; Bole, T.; Londo, M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Pelkmans, L. [VITO, Mol (Belgium); Berndes, G. [Chalmers University, Gothenburg (Sweden); Prieler, S.; Fischer, G. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria); Cueste Cabal, H. [CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

    2010-06-15

    Increasing fossil fuel prices, energy security considerations and environmental concerns, particularly concerning climate change, have motivated countries to explore alternative energy sources including biofuels. Global demand for biofuels has been rising rapidly due to biofuel support policies established in many countries. However, proposed strong links between biofuels demand and recent years' high food commodity prices, and notions that increasing biofuels production might bring about serious negative environmental impacts, in particularly associated with the land use change to biofuel crops, have shifted public enthusiasm about biofuels. In this context, the ELOBIO project aims at shedding further light to these aspects of biofuel expansion by collecting and reviewing the available data, and also developing strategies to decrease negative effects of biofuels while enabling their positive contribution to climate change, security of supply and rural development. ELOBIO considers aspects associated with both 1st and 2nd generation biofuels, hence analyses effects on both agricultural commodity markets and lignocellulosic markets. This project, funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe programme, consists of a review of current experiences with biofuels and other renewable energy policies and their impacts on other markets, iterative stakeholder-supported development of low-disturbing biofuels policies, model supported assessment of these policies' impacts on food, feed and lignocellulosic markets, and finally an assessment of the effects of selected optimal policies on biofuels costs and potentials. Results of the ELOBIO study show that rapid biofuel deployment without careful monitoring of consequences and implementation of mitigating measures risks leading to negative consequences. Implementing ambitious global biofuel targets for 2020, based on current 1st generation technologies, can push international agricultural commodity prices upwards and

  4. Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the study presented in this article is to examine whether the cconcepts developed in the area of industrial buying behavior can add to the understanding of commodity markets. The industrial market for vegetable oil was chosen as the outset of the study, because it is characterized...... and mayonnaise industries in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The main result of the study is that the price is an omnipotent decision criterion, when vegetable fats and mayonnaise producers buy vegetable oil, but also that product and supplier criteria can be used to segment...... the market, if the price premium is held within limits....

  5. Hedonic analysis of ultra-high-temperature-treated milk prices in Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bimbo, Francesco; Bonanno, Alessandro; Liu, Xuan; Viscecchia, Rosaria

    2016-01-01

    The Italian market for UHT milk has been growing thanks to both consumers' interest in products with an extended shelf life and to the lower prices of these products compared with refrigerated, pasteurized milk. However, because the lower prices of UHT milk can hinder producers' margins, manufact

  6. A High-Dimensional, Multivariate Copula Approach to Modeling Multivariate Agricultural Price Relationships and Tail Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan Chi; Barry Goodwin

    2012-01-01

    Spatial and temporal relationships among agricultural prices have been an important topic of applied research for many years. Such research is used to investigate the performance of markets and to examine linkages up and down the marketing chain. This research has empirically evaluated price linkages by using correlation and regression models and, later, linear and...

  7. Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, Anh Ngoc; Mellios, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    International audience; This paper extends the existing literature on commodity derivatives to account for an unobservable stochastic convenience yield. Investors operate in an economy with incomplete information. In contrast to other incomplete information models, analytical formulas for forward and futures prices, as well as for European options on forward and futures contracts are obtained. These formulas reveal the important role played by the initial values of the estimator of the conven...

  8. Irving Fisher and Price-Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?

    OpenAIRE

    Richard C. K. Burdekin; Kris James Mitchener; Marc D. Weidenmier

    2011-01-01

    The question of price level versus inflation targeting remains controversial. Disagreement concerns, not so much the desirability of price stability, but rather the means of achieving it. Irving Fisher argued for a commodity dollar standard where the purchasing power of money was fixed by indexing it to a basket of commodities. We show that movements in the price of silver closely track the movements in overall prices during the classical gold standard era. The one-to-one relationship between...

  9. Food and Feed Commodity Vocabulary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food and Feed Vocabulary was developed to consolidate all the major OPP Commodity Vocabularies into one standardized vocabulary. The EPA-preferred term is the only term that can be used in setting tolerances.

  10. Processing Trade Banned Commodities announced

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ The new catalogue of processing trade-banned commodities was announced recently. The announcement was executed since November 22 of 2006. The Catalogue will be adjusted according to related policies of the state.

  11. Quarterly Web Interfaced Commodity Reporting

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — QWICR is a secure, online Title II commodity reporting system accessible to USAID Missions, PVO Cooperating Sponsors and Food for Peace Officers. QWICR provides PVO...

  12. Commodity team motivation and performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    these factors and the objectives of the commodity teams were associated with lower performance. The paper contributes theoretically by providing a rich description of how commodity teams function, and to practice by bringing attention to a number of managerial issues that should be considered when implementing......In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  13. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    these factors and the objectives of the commodity teams were associated with lower performance. The paper contributes theoretically by providing a rich description of how commodity teams function, and to practice by bringing attention to a number of managerial issues that should be considered when implementing......In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  14. Enabling Fair Pricing on High Performance Computer Systems with Node Sharing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex D. Breslow

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Co-location, where multiple jobs share compute nodes in large-scale HPC systems, has been shown to increase aggregate throughput and energy efficiency by 10–20%. However, system operators disallow co-location due to fair-pricing concerns, i.e., a pricing mechanism that considers performance interference from co-running jobs. In the current pricing model, application execution time determines the price, which results in unfair prices paid by the minority of users whose jobs suffer from co-location. This paper presents POPPA, a runtime system that enables fair pricing by delivering precise online interference detection and facilitates the adoption of supercomputers with co-locations. POPPA leverages a novel shutter mechanism – a cyclic, fine-grained interference sampling mechanism to accurately deduce the interference between co-runners – to provide unbiased pricing of jobs that share nodes. POPPA is able to quantify inter-application interference within 4% mean absolute error on a variety of co-located benchmark and real scientific workloads.

  15. Prices of healthy and unhealthy beverages in high and low per capita income areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watters, Corilee A; Corrado, Rachel S; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2013-03-01

    To better understand availability and price of beverages in Hawai'i, the prices of healthy (milk, orange juice, unsweetened tea, unsweetened coffee, diet soda) and unhealthy beverages (regular soda, fruit drink, sports drink, sweetened tea, flavored water) were collected and the beverage prices in lower per capita income areas and higher per capita income areas were compared. Cross-sectional data on prices of healthy and unhealthy beverages were collected from supermarkets, convenience stores, and quick serve restaurants from two lower per capita income areas (Waimanalo and Wai'anae) and two higher per capita income areas (Hawai'i Kai and Manoa) on O'ahu, Hawai'i from May 15 to June 10, 2012. Using composite data from across all areas, there was a significant difference of $0.58 (95% CI 0.46, 0.70) between the healthy beverages' mean price per 20 ounces ($1.76 ± $0.86) and the unhealthy beverages' mean price per 20 ounces ($1.18 ± $0.38) (P <.001). Although there was no statistically significant difference between per capita income areas, the lower per capita income areas' mean price per 20 ounces of healthy beverages was slightly higher and mean price per 20 ounces of unhealthy beverages was slightly lower than the higher per capita income areas. Pricing strategies that enable healthy beverages to be less expensive than unhealthy beverages is one method to increase consumption of healthy beverages and decrease consumption of unhealthy beverages. Reduction in unhealthy beverage consumption is needed to help reduce obesity, especially in the lower per capita income areas that have higher obesity prevalence.

  16. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-27

    nonlin- ear differential equations by noise. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 53(3), , 683-691 [4] Bachmeier, Lance J., and James M. Griffin...Covariances in Filters and Estimators, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, Vol. 45, No. 3, pg 477-482. [116] Singer, H, 1993. Continuous-time...591-602. [121] Sωren Hansen, Enis Bayramoglu, Jens Christian Andersen, Ole Ravn, Nils Andersen and Niels Kjωlstad Poulsen, 2011. Orchard navigation

  17. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Gunther, H.O.; van Beek, P.

    2009-01-01

    quantity, price and supply decisions throughout the value chain. A two-phase optimization approach supports robust planning ensuring minimum profitability even in case of worst-case spot sales price scenarios. Model evaluations with industry case data demonstrate the impact of elasticities, variable raw......We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply...... decisions by volume and value throughout the value chain to ensure profitability. Contract and spot demand differentiation with volatile and uncertain spot prices, spot sales quantity flexibility, spot sales price-quantity functions and variable raw material consumption rates in production are problem...

  18. Mineral commodity profiles: Silver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterman, W.C.; Hilliard, Henry E.

    2005-01-01

    United States, about 30 companies accounted for more than 90 percent of the silver fabricated. The consumption of silver for all fabrication uses is expected to grow slowly through the decade ending in 2010 at about 1.3 percent per year for the world and 2.4 percent per year for the United States. World and U.S. reserves and reserve bases are more than adequate to satisfy the demand for newly mined silver through 2010. The other components of supply will be silver recovered from scrap, silver from industrial stocks, and silver bullion that is sold into the market from commodity exchange and private stocks.

  19. Mineral commodity profiles: Silver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterman, W.C.; Hilliard, Henry E.

    2005-01-01

    United States, about 30 companies accounted for more than 90 percent of the silver fabricated. The consumption of silver for all fabrication uses is expected to grow slowly through the decade ending in 2010 at about 1.3 percent per year for the world and 2.4 percent per year for the United States. World and U.S. reserves and reserve bases are more than adequate to satisfy the demand for newly mined silver through 2010. The other components of supply will be silver recovered from scrap, silver from industrial stocks, and silver bullion that is sold into the market from commodity exchange and private stocks.

  20. When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Salvucci, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    Changes in relative prices of commodities consumed in different shares across income groups can be expected to alter real income differentials between these groups. Using Mozambican household budget survey and price data from 2002/03 and 2008/09, we show that once relative price increases...... are accounted for, inequality of real consumption increases substantially. We obtain this result by constructing a price deflator that reflects divergent price dynamics of different product categories. Since the main factors driving this result prevail in other developing countries, it is likely that inequality...

  1. Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn Spot and Futures Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y-A. Wang (Yu-Ann)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe recent and rapidly growing interest in biofuel as a green energy source has raised concerns about its impact on the prices, returns and volatility of related agricultural commodities. Analyzing the spillover effects on agricultural commodities and biofuel helps commodity suppliers

  2. Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn Spot and Futures Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y-A. Wang (Yu-Ann)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe recent and rapidly growing interest in biofuel as a green energy source has raised concerns about its impact on the prices, returns and volatility of related agricultural commodities. Analyzing the spillover effects on agricultural commodities and biofuel helps commodity suppliers he

  3. Price elasticity of demand for psychiatric consultation in a Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Health Sciences Vol 16 Issue 4, December, 2016. Abstract: Objective: This paper addresses price elasticity of demand (PED) in a region ... Accordingly, such commodities ... In low- and middle-income countries removing or reduc-.

  4. Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Girardi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

  5. Crunching Large Graphs with Commodity Processors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, Jacob E; Myers, Brandon D; Hunter, Andrew H; Briggs, Preston; Ceze, Luis; Ebeling, William C; Grossman, Dan; Kahan, Simon H; Oskin, Mark

    2011-05-26

    Crunching large graphs is the basis of many emerging appli- cations, such as social network analysis and bioinformatics. Graph analytics algorithms exhibit little locality and therefore present significant performance challenges. Hardware multi- threading systems (e.g, Cray XMT) show that with enough concurrency, we can tolerate long latencies. Unfortunately, this solution is not available with commodity parts. Our goal is to develop a latency-tolerant system built out of commodity parts and mostly in software. The proposed system includes a runtime that supports a large number of lightweight contexts, full-bit synchronization and a memory manager that provides a high-latency but high-bandwidth global shared memory. This paper lays out the vision for our system, and justifies its feasibility with a performance analysis of the run- time for latency tolerance.

  6. Developing an organized commodity exchange in Ghana: Challenges and economic prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Iddrisu Ngmenipuo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We have examined challenges and economic prospects of establishing an organized Commodity Exchange in Ghana. We find that such a market will result in reduction in post-harvest losses through price stability, improvement in commodity price risk and credit risk management, provision of a transparent and competitive price discovery mechanism, reduction in transaction and marketing costs, and avoidance of making the mistakes of others. However, we also identify the challenges that should be resolved such as lack of laws and regulations specifically pertaining to the commodity exchange; inadequate financial support; lack of trading infrastructure; inadequate volume; liquidity problem; smallholder farms; lack of understanding of trading instruments; and government/political interference to this end. Overall policy implications suggest inadequate infrastructure and capacity building of market participants should be enhanced.

  7. 关于“房价高”和“房价调控”的几点理论思考%Theoretical Reflections on High Housing Price and Price Regulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李增刚

    2012-01-01

    High housing price has aroused wide concern since 2005,and the government has taken policy measures to regulate it.Economically whether the housing price is high or not is not an economic issue because there is no definite standard for the price.Although all the people are talking about the high housing price,it can be a misinterpretation of people's understanding of the housing price under the media propaganda.Housing price can be used as a threshold to enter a city;a decline in the price is not necessarily good for the government,banks and residents.Therefore to regulate the housing price is not necessarily feasible or essential.%自2005年起,"房价高"的问题就一直受到各方关注,政府出台了各种调控房价的政策措施。从经济学的角度讲,房价高还是低并不是一个科学的经济学问题,因为高或者低的标准不确定;虽然整个社会都在讨论"房价高"的问题,但这很可能是媒体宣传下对人们认知的一种曲解;房价可以作为城市进入的门槛;房价下跌对政府、银行、广大居民而言未必是好事,因而政府调控房价的政策未必是可行的、必要的。

  8. GENERIC COMMODITY PROMOTION AND PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION

    OpenAIRE

    1999-01-01

    This paper considers whether generic promotion lowers the differentiation among competing brands as claimed in the 1997 Supreme Court case (Wileman et al. v. Glickman). Commodity promotion is modeled as a multi-stage game where products are vertically differentiated. Analytical results show that if the benefits of generic advertising from increased demand are outweighed by the costs from lower product differentiation then high-quality producers will not benefit from generic promotion but prod...

  9. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-07-01

    Our study, focused on gas prices in importing economies, describes wholesale prices and retail prices, their evolution for the last one or two decades, the economic mechanisms of price formation. While an international market for oil has developed thanks to moderate storage and transportation charges, these costs are much higher in the case of natural gas, which involves that this energy is still traded inside continental markets. There are three regional gas markets around the world: North America (the United States, importing mainly from Canada and Mexico), Europe (importing mainly from Russia, Algeria and Norway) and Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and India, importing mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia). A market for gas has also developed in South America, but it will not be covered by our paper. In Europe and the US, due to large domestic resources and strong grids, natural gas is purchased mostly through pipelines. In Northeast Asia, there is a lack of such infrastructures, so imported gas takes mainly the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped on maritime tankers. Currently, the LNG market is divided into two zones: the Atlantic Basin (Europe and US) and the Pacific Basin (Asia and the Western Coast of America). For the past few years, the Middle East and Africa have tended to be crucial suppliers for both LNG zones. Gas price formation varies deeply between regional markets, depending on several structural factors (regulation, contracting practises, existence of a spot market, liquidity, share of imports). Empirically, the degree of market opening (which corresponds to the seniority in the liberalization process) seems to be the primary determinant of pricing patterns. North America has the most liberalized and well-performing natural gas industry in the world. Gas pricing is highly competitive and is based on supply/demand balances. Spot and futures markets are developed. The British gas sector is also deregulated and thus follows a

  10. The roadmap for low price- high performance IR detector based on LWIR to NIR light up-conversion approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipper, R.; Arbel, D.; Baskin, E.; Fayer, A.; Epstein, A.; Shuall, N.; Saguy, A.; Veksler, D.; Spektor, B.; Ben-Aharon, D.; Garber, V.

    2009-05-01

    The introduction of an uncooled microbolometer image sensor about a decade ago enabled cost reduction of IR cameras. As a result, the available markets grew both in military and civilian applications. Since then, the price of microbolometer was gradually reduced due to introduction of devices with smaller pixel, maturity of the technology and quantity growth. However, the requirement for a vacuum package still limits the price of microbolometer based cameras to several thousands of dollars. Sirica's novel wavelength conversion technology aims at breaking this paradigm by being uncooled and vacuumless, lowering IR camera prices by an order of magnitude, opening the way to new mass markets. Sirica's proprietary IR-to-Visible/NIR conversion layer allows for low-cost high performance LWIR detector with no requirement for cooling and vacuum packaging. In the last years, the development efforts focused on development of the conversion media. Recently, a parallel effort for the integration of the conversion layer together with other detector components has started. Packaging of detector components, such as conversion layer, pumping light source, dichroic filter, and their coupling with silicon CMOS image sensor have great importance from a price-performance point of view. According to the company's business-development roadmap, the detector prototype should be available during the first quarter of 2010.

  11. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  12. The Commodity and its Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høst, Jeppe Engset

    2015-01-01

    This chapter examines fishing quota as a commodity in both a conceptual perspective and through ethnographic examples. Inspired by Marx’s ideas of the commodity, use-value, exchange-value, and ground rent, the chapter combines a theoretical approach with ethnographic material. The different aspects...... and the value of the quota are examined through the concrete exchange of fishing rights, and it is explained why quota trade can give rise to speculation and monopolies. In the final part of the chapter, it is argued that the value of transferable fishing quotas rely on a social relation between owners...

  13. Price Discrimination

    OpenAIRE

    Armstrong, Mark

    2008-01-01

    This paper surveys recent economic research on price discrimination, both in monopoly and oligopoly markets. Topics include static and dynamic forms of price discrimination, and both final and input markets are considered. Potential antitrust aspects of price discrimination are highlighted throughout the paper. The paper argues that the informational requirements to make accurate policy are very great, and with most forms of price discrimination a laissez-faire policy may be the best availabl...

  14. Do spot prices move towards futures prices? A study on crude oil market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Nicolau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The importance of studying the futures markets and the relationship between spot and futures prices is given by the possibility that futures contracts offer in order to reduce particular risks. The financial theory presents the relationships between spot and futures prices in the framework of both the non-arbitrage theory and the asset pricing theory, but none of them offer information about the direction of causality between spot and futures prices. This paper attempts to analyse the dynamic relationship between spot and futures prices of the crude oil, a very important commodity. The empirical analysis is focused to examine the causal dynamics between spot and futures prices in crude oil market; the results confirm that the prices of one and two maturity futures predict spot prices. Conversely, this is not true for longer maturity futures contracts.

  15. Reduction in CPI Commodity Substitution Bias by Using the Modified Lloyd–Moulton Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Białek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Consumer Price Index (CPI is used as a basic measure of inflation. In practice, the Laspeyres price index is used to measure the CPI, although this formula does not take into account changes in the structure of consumption. The difference between the Laspeyres index and the superlative index should approximate the value of the commodity substitution bias. The Lloyd–Moulton price index does not make use of currentperiod expenditure data and, as it is commonly known, it allows to approximate superlative indices, in particular the Fisher price index (Von der Lippe, 2007. This is a very important property for the inflation measurement and the Consumer Price Index bias calculations. In this paper we verify the utility of the Lloyd–Moulton price index as the Fisher price index approximation. We propose a simple modification of that index and verify this modification for the real data set.

  16. Do High Consumers of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Respond Differently to Price Changes? A Finite Mixture IV-Tobit Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etilé, Fabrice; Sharma, Anurag

    2015-09-01

    This study compares the impact of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) tax between moderate and high consumers in Australia. The key methodological contribution is that price response heterogeneity is identified while controlling for censoring of consumption at zero and endogeneity of expenditure by using a finite mixture instrumental variable Tobit model. The SSB price elasticity estimates show a decreasing trend across increasing consumption quantiles, from -2.3 at the median to -0.2 at the 95th quantile. Although high consumers of SSBs have a less elastic demand for SSBs, their very high consumption levels imply that a tax would achieve higher reduction in consumption and higher health gains. Our results also suggest that an SSB tax would represent a small fiscal burden for consumers whatever their pre-policy level of consumption, and that an excise tax should be preferred to an ad valorem tax. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2014-01-01

    Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE h...

  18. Design the price signal mechanism of suppliers' cost in the commercial procurement process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinming, Huang; Wenjing, Li; Huazhen, Zhu

    2016-06-01

    In the process of commercial procurement, there exists information asymmetry between purchasers and suppliers in terms of commodity cost. The strike price is what purchasers care about, while the focus of suppliers is only the sales revenue. In order to achieve the relatively lower strike price, purchasers need to design a price signal mechanism, explicating the commodity cost of suppliers. In this article, we have designed a mechanism that purchasers can explicit the commodity cost price based on suppliers' choices by providing a variety of purchase contracts to suppliers.

  19. Metal prices in the United States through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This report, which updates and revises the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (1999) publication, “Metal Prices in the United States Through 1998,” presents an extended price history for a wide range of metals available in a single document. Such information can be useful for the analysis of mineral commodity issues, as well as for other purposes. The chapter for each mineral commodity includes a graph of annual current and constant dollar prices for 1970 through 2010, where available; a list of significant events that affected prices; a brief discussion of the metal and its history; and one or more tables that list current dollar prices. In some cases, the metal prices presented herein are for some alternative form of an element or, instead of a price, a value, such as the value for an import as appraised by the U.S. Customs Service. Also included are the prices for steel, steel scrap, and iron ore—steel because of its importance to the elements used to alloy with it, and steel scrap and iron ore because of their use in steelmaking. A few minor metals, such as calcium, potassium, sodium, strontium, and thorium, for which price histories were insufficient, were excluded. The annual prices given may be averages for the year, yearend prices, or some other price as appropriate for a particular commodity. Certain trade journals have been the source of much of this price information—American Metal Market, ICIS Chemical Business, Engineering and Mining Journal, Industrial Minerals, Metal Bulletin, Mining Journal, Platts Metals Week, Roskill Information Services Ltd. commodity reports, and Ryan’s Notes. Price information also is available in minerals information publications of the USGS (1880–1925, 1996–present) and the U.S. Bureau of Mines (1926–95), such as Mineral Commodity Summaries, Mineral Facts and Problems, Mineral Industry Surveys, and Minerals Yearbook. In addition to prices themselves, these journals and publications contain information relevant to

  20. Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

    2005-01-01

    This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what extent...... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...

  1. Mineral commodity profiles: Germanium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterman, W.C.; Jorgenson, John D.

    2005-01-01

    Overview -- Germanium is a hard, brittle semimetal that first came into use a half-century ago as a semiconductor material in radar units and as the material from which the first transistor was made. Today it is used principally as a component of the glass in telecommunications fiber optics; as a polymerization catalyst for polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a commercially important plastic; in infrared (IR) night vision devices; and as a semiconductor and substrate in electronics circuitry. Most germanium is recovered as a byproduct of zinc smelting, although it also has been recovered at some copper smelters and from the fly ash of coal-burning industrial powerplants. It is a highly dispersed element, associated primarily with base-metal sulfide ores. In the United States, germanium is recovered from zinc smelter residues and manufacturing scrap and is refined by two companies at four germanium refineries. One of the four refineries is dedicated to processing scrap. In 2000, producers sold zone-refined (high-purity) germanium at about $1,250 per kilogram and electronic-grade germanium dioxide (GeO2) at $800 per kilogram. Domestic refined production was valued at $22 million. Germanium is a critical component in highly technical devices and processes. It is likely to remain in demand in the future at levels at least as high as those of 2000. U.S. resources of germanium are probably adequate to meet domestic needs for several decades.

  2. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    This article explores factors influencing the motivation and performance of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Several challenges are related to the classical dilemma of matrix organization, but with particular implications in this specific context of purchasing. We report on a reward...

  3. Aflatoxins in selected Thai commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansakul, Natthasit; Limsuwan, Sasithorn; Böhm, Josef; Hollmann, Manfred; Razzazi-Fazeli, Ebrahim

    2013-01-01

    Aflatoxin (AF) B1, B2, G1 and G2 were determined in 120 samples of selected Thai commodities including unpolished rice, unpolished glutinous rice, chilli powder, whole dried chilli pods and raw peanut. The mean concentrations of the total AFs for analysed samples were 0.16, 25.43, 14.18, 6.62 and 1.43 µg kg(-1) with positive incidences of 4%, 20%, 97%, 37% and 30%, respectively. Quantitative analysis was performed using HPLC equipped with post-column derivatisation and fluorescence detection. Sample clean-up was carried out using immunoaffinity columns for selective enrichment of AFs. The method was validated by using certified reference material, which showed recoveries over 85%. The limit of detections (LODs) and limit of quantifications (LOQs) were in a range between 0.01-0.11 µg kg(-1) and 0.03-0.38 µg kg(-1), respectively. The results clearly demonstrated that AFs were detectable in different matrices. Chilli powder was found to have the highest level of AFs contamination followed by chilli pods, peanut and rice, respectively. However, among the selected commodities, unpolished rice contained only trace levels of AFB1 and AFB2. With regard to the fact that AFs are a natural contaminant in commodities, this report calls to attention the regular monitoring and effective control of food commodities to prevent health hazards.

  4. Impact assessment of commodity standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, Ruerd

    2017-01-01

    Voluntary commodity standards are widely used to enhance the performance of tropical agro-food chains and to support the welfare and sustainability of smallholder farmers. Different methods and approaches are used to assess the effectiveness and impact of these certification schemes at

  5. Going where the Ad leads you: On High Advertised Prices and Search where to buy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); M.C. Non (Marielle)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractThe search literature assumes that consumers know which firms sell products they are looking for, but are unaware of the particular variety and the prices at which each firm sells. In this paper, we consider the situation where consumers are uncertain whether a firm carries the product a

  6. Going where the Ad leads you: On High Advertised Prices and Search where to buy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); M.C. Non (Marielle)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractThe search literature assumes that consumers know which firms sell products they are looking for, but are unaware of the particular variety and the prices at which each firm sells. In this paper, we consider the situation where consumers are uncertain whether a firm carries the product a

  7. Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Xiaodong, E-mail: xdu23@wisc.ed [Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, WI (United States); Yu, Cindy L., E-mail: cindyyu@iastate.ed [Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, IA (United States); Hayes, Dermot J., E-mail: dhayes@iastate.ed [Department of Economics and Department of Finance, Iowa State University, IA (United States)

    2011-05-15

    This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

  8. Copper and the negative price of storage

    OpenAIRE

    Larson, Donald Frederick; DEC

    1994-01-01

    Commodities are often stored during periods in which storage returns a negative price. Further, during periods of"backwardation,"the expected revenue from holding inventories will be negative. Since the 1930s, the negative price of storage has been attributed to an offsetting"convenience yield."It has been argued that inventories are a necessary adjunct to business and that increasing inventories from some minimal level reduces overall costs. This theory has always been criticized by proponen...

  9. Forecasting Gold Prices Using Multiple Linear Regression Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ismail

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forecasting is a function in management to assist decision making. It is also described as the process of estimation in unknown future situations. In a more general term it is commonly known as prediction which refers to estimation of time series or longitudinal type data. Gold is a precious yellow commodity once used as money. It was made illegal in USA 41 years ago, but is now once again accepted as a potential currency. The demand for this commodity is on the rise. Approach: Objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for predicting gold prices based on economic factors such as inflation, currency price movements and others. Following the melt-down of US dollars, investors are putting their money into gold because gold plays an important role as a stabilizing influence for investment portfolios. Due to the increase in demand for gold in Malaysian and other parts of the world, it is necessary to develop a model that reflects the structure and pattern of gold market and forecast movement of gold price. The most appropriate approach to the understanding of gold prices is the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR model. MLR is a study on the relationship between a single dependent variable and one or more independent variables, as this case with gold price as the single dependent variable. The fitted model of MLR will be used to predict the future gold prices. A naive model known as “forecast-1” was considered to be a benchmark model in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Results: Many factors determine the price of gold and based on “a hunch of experts”, several economic factors had been identified to have influence on the gold prices. Variables such as Commodity Research Bureau future index (CRB; USD/Euro Foreign Exchange Rate (EUROUSD; Inflation rate (INF; Money Supply (M1; New York Stock Exchange (NYSE; Standard and Poor 500 (SPX; Treasury Bill (T-BILL and US Dollar index (USDX were considered to

  10. Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the study presented in this article is to examine whether the cconcepts developed in the area of industrial buying behavior can add to the understanding of commodity markets. The industrial market for vegetable oil was chosen as the outset of the study, because it is characterized...... by the appearance of changing demands and technological opportunities, which potentially can lead to differentiation possibilities. The article describes a framework for the study of industrial buying of food commodities and the results of a conjoint study based on interviews with oil purchasers in the margarine...... and mayonnaise industries in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The main result of the study is that the price is an omnipotent decision criterion, when vegetable fats and mayonnaise producers buy vegetable oil, but also that product and supplier criteria can be used to segment...

  11. Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: The case of metal prices and US inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyrtsou, Catherine; Labys, Walter C.

    2007-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to examine causality and feedback relationships between primary commodity prices and US inflation. To this end, the bivariate noisy Mackey-Glass process recently developed by Kyrtsou and Labys [Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices, J. Macroecon. 28(1) (2006) 256-266] has been applied to assess this relationship. Results obtained support evidence in favour of causality, which can help to identify the influences of speculative price behaviour on inflation.

  12. Limits to Arbitrage in Sovereign Bonds Price and Liquidity Discovery in High Frequency Quote Driven Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

    The progressively stronger linkages across markets, due to faster access to information and trade execution, cause market liquidity to be rapidly transmitted across markets. In contrast to the resultant commonality of liquidity across markets that are affected by common market-wide factors......, the transmission of liquidity between markets linked to each other through arbitrage, such as cash bond and futures markets, which we term liquidity discovery, is likely to be even stronger. This paper investigates the microstructure of the relationship between price discovery, the transmission of price shocks...... between markets, and liquidity discovery, the transmission of liquidity shocks, through changes in the quotes posted by market makers and the reactions of arbitrageurs. Our analysis is in the context of the Italian sovereign bond cash and future markets, during the recent Euro-zone sovereign bond crisis...

  13. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16...

  14. China : Development of National Heat Pricing and Billing Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Anke Sofia; Kalkum, Bernd

    2008-01-01

    Market-based reforms in China's urban centralized heating sector are essential to addressing the perpetual inefficiency of a sector built on welfare based principles. The reform of heat pricing and billing is a crucial part of overall heat reform, since it will commodity heat and thus create economic incentives to provide and use heat much more efficiently. Heat pricing and billing reform ...

  15. Crop Monitoring as a Tool for Modelling the Genesis of Millet Prices in Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, D.; Marinho, E.; Defourny, P.; Waldner, F.; d'Andrimont, R.

    2015-12-01

    Food security in Sahelian countries strongly relies on the ability of markets to transfer staplesfrom surplus to deficit areas. Market failures, leading to the inefficient geographical allocation of food,are expected to emerge from high transportation costs and information asymmetries that are commonin moderately developed countries. As a result, important price differentials are observed betweenproducing and consuming areas which damages both poor producers and food insecure consumers. Itis then vital for policy makers to understand how the prices of agricultural commodities are formed byaccounting for the existing market imperfections in addition to local demand and supply considerations. To address this issue, we have gathered an unique and diversified set of data for Senegal andintegrated it in a spatially explicit model that simulates the functioning of agricultural markets, that isfully consistent with the economic theory. Our departure point is a local demand and supply modelaround each market having its catchment areas determined by the road network. We estimate the localsupply of agricultural commodities from satellite imagery while the demand is assumed to be a functionof the population living in the area. From this point on, profitable transactions between areas with lowprices to areas with high prices are simulated for different levels of per kilometer transportation costand information flows (derived from call details records i.e. mobile phone data). The simulated prices are then comparedwith the actual millet prices. Despite the parsimony of the model that estimates only two parameters, i.e. the per kilometertransportation cost and the information asymmetry resulting from low levels of mobile phone activitybetween markets, it impressively explains more than 80% of the price differentials observed in the 40markets included in the analysis. In one hand these results can be used in the assessment of the socialwelfare impacts of the further development of

  16. Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, Jui-Cheng [Department of Finance, Yuanpei University, N0.306. Yuanpei St. Hsin Chu 300 (China); Lee, Ming-Chih; Liu, Hung-Chun [Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, 151 Ying-Chuan Road, Tamsui 251, Taipei County (China)

    2008-05-15

    The choice of an appropriate distribution for return innovations is important in VaR applications owing to its ability to directly affect the estimation quality of the required quantiles. This study investigates the influence of fat-tailed innovation process on the performance of one-day-ahead VaR estimates using three GARCH models (GARCH-N, GARCH-t and GARCH-HT). Daily spot prices of five energy commodities (WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, heating oil 2, propane and New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular) are used to compare the accuracy and efficiency of the VaR models. Empirical results suggest that for asset returns that exhibit leptokurtic and fat-tailed features, the VaR estimates generated by the GARCH-HT models have good accuracy at both low and high confidence levels. Additionally, MRSB indicates that the GARCH-HT model is more efficient than alternatives for most cases at high confidence levels. These findings suggest that the heavy-tailed distribution is more suitable for energy commodities, particularly VaR calculation. (author)

  17. Policy Dilemmas in India - The Impact of Changes in Agricultural Prices on Rural and Urban Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    Trade policy reforms which lead to changes in world prices of agricultural commodities or domestic policies aimed at affecting agricultural prices are often seen as causing a policy dilemma : a fall in agricultural prices benefits poor urban consumers but hurts poor rural producers, while a rise yields the converse. Poor countries have argued that they need to be able to use import protection and/or price support policies to protect themselves against volatility in world agricultural prices i...

  18. Policy dilemmas in India: The Impact of changes in agricultural prices on rural and urban poverty

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    Trade policy reforms which lead to changes in world prices of agricultural commodities or domestic policies aimed at affecting agricultural prices are often seen as causing a policy dilemma: a fall in agricultural prices benefits poor urban consumers but hurts poor rural producers, while a rise yields the converse. Poor countries have argued that they need to be able to use import protection and/or price support policies to protect themselves against volatility in world agricultural prices in...

  19. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  20. For Fear of Economic Slowdown,Western Regions Try to Rescue High Energy-consuming Industries like Metals with Preferential Electricity Prices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    <正>Shaanxi,Ningxia and some other provinces in the west have adopted preferential electricity price policy for high energy-consuming enterprises or industries,while Gansu and Qinghai are discussing whether to loosen the policy.

  1. Does Accessibility to the Central Business District (CBD Have an Impact on High-Rise Condominium Price Gradient in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dziauddin Mohd Faris

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a spatial econometric method known as Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to investigate the impact of accessibility to the CBD on the high-rise condominium price gradient in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Using a GWR method, after having controlled other factors, this study clearly reveal the impact of accessibility to the CBD on high-rise condominium varying prices across the study area, having a much larger positive impact in some areas but less and counterintuitive impact in others. In general, the results from this study show accessibility to the CBD measured by the travel times does affect high-rise condominium prices (high-rise condominium prices decrease as travel times to the CBD increase in most part of the areas, hence proved Alonso, Muth and Mills were still right.

  2. C2 C电商商品多因素排序系统的设计与实现%DESIGN AND REALISATION OF MULTI-FACTOR COMMODITIES SORTING SYSTEM FOR C2 C E-COMMERCE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高永兵; 王雪雪; 胡文江; 孙龙

    2014-01-01

    目前C2C购物网站(如淘宝网、拍拍网)商品只是按单一属性进行排序,如按价格、销量、卖家信用度等,消费者很难在短时间找到价格低且合理、质量可信度高的商品。针对这一问题设计一个基于API技术的C2C电商商品多因素排序系统。利用淘宝、拍拍开放平台提供的开放API接口获取商品信息,然后筛选出价格合理的商品,再综合商品的价格、商品的销量、卖家的信用度多指标对商品排序。理论分析与实验结果均表明该系统满足了用户的需求且提高了购物的效率。%At present the commodities in C2C shopping websites (such as Taobao, Paipai ) is sorted only by single attribute, such as the price, the sales volume, sellers’ credit and so on, which makes it difficult for consumers to find out the commodities with low and reasonable prices, highly reliable quality in a short period.Aiming at this issue, we design an API technology-based multi-factor commodities sorting system for C2C E-commerce.It obtains commodities information by using the open API interfaces offered by open platforms of Taobao and Paipai.Then it screens the commodities whose price is reasonable, and further sorts the commodities based on multiple indexes like the price, sales volume of the commodities and sellers’ credit.Theoretical analysis and experimental results all show that the system meets the demands of users and improves the shopping efficiency.

  3. IS THE BRAZILIAN REAL A COMMODITY CURRENCY? LARGE SAMPLE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe Monteiro de Castro Albert

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Brazil is one of the world’s largest base materials exporters, and this paper examines through large time series samples whether the Brazilian Real can be characterized as a commodity currency. The Real/US dollar real exchange rate and a real commodity prices index are found to be non-stationary and not cointegrated, while a risk premium appeared to have a large and statistically significant long term relationship with exchange rate movements. Combined first difference models showed that real exchange rate elasticity to risk premium is twice as large as to commodity prices, although both variables have considerable influence. Some specifications outperformed a random walk model with respect to root mean square forecast errors for many horizons, but the latter still better determined the exchange rate in longer terms.

  4. A Multi Period Equilibrium Pricing Model

    CERN Document Server

    Pirvu, Traian A

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with uncertain income streams. In an incomplete market, there exist two traded risky assets (e.g. stock/commodity and weather derivative) and a non-traded underlying (e.g. temperature). The risk preferences are of exponential (CARA) type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both time consistent and time inconsistent trading strategies are considered. We obtain the equilibriums prices of a contingent claim written on the risky asset and non-traded underlying. By running numerical experiments we examine how the equilibriums prices vary in response to changes in model parameters.

  5. Electric Cars and Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Azar, Jose

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices...

  6. Natural gas market review 2008 - optimising investments and ensuring security in a high-priced environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-09-18

    Over the last 18 months, natural gas prices have continued to rise steadily in all IEA markets. What are the causes of this steady upward trend? Unprecedented oil and coal prices which have encouraged power generators to switch to gas, together with tight supplies, demand for gas in new markets and delayed investments all played a role. Investment uncertainties, cost increases and delays remain major concerns in most gas markets and are continuing to constitute a threat to long-term security of supply. A massive expansion in LNG production is expected in the short term to 2012, but the lag in LNG investment beyond 2012 is a concern for all gas users in both IEA and non-IEA markets. Despite this tight market context, regional markets continue on their way to globalisation. This tendency seems irreversible, and it impacts even the most independent markets. Price linkages and other interactions between markets are becoming more pronounced. This publication addresses these major developments, assessing investment in natural gas projects (LNG, pipelines, upstream), escalating costs, the activities of international oil and gas companies, and gas demand in the power sector. In addition, the publication includes data and forecasts on OECD and non-OECD regions to 2015 and in-depth reviews of five OECD countries and regions including the European Union. It also provides analysis of 34 non-OECD countries in South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, including a detailed assessment of the outlook for gas in Russia, as well as insights on new technologies to deliver gas to markets.

  7. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...

  8. Pricing Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenopir, Carol

    1998-01-01

    Presents results of a recent survey of over 100 public and academic libraries about pricing options from online companies. Most options fall into three categories: pay-as-you-go, fixed-rate, and user-based. Results are discussed separately for public and academic libraries and for consortial discounts. Trends in pricing options preferred by…

  9. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small......Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...

  10. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...... not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small...

  11. Activities for Students: Predicting Future Gas Prices Using the Standards for Mathematical Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bismarck, Stephen F.; Zelkowski, Jeremy; Gleason, Jim

    2014-01-01

    Like many commodities, the price of gasoline continues to rise, and these price changes are readily observed in gas stations' signage. Moreover, algebraic methods are well suited to model price change and answer the student's question. Over the course of one ninety-minute block or two forty-five-minute classes, students build functions…

  12. Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Gabriela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

  13. Price Setting Behaviour in the Czech Republic, Micro Data Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Murárik

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this analysis was to obtain information on the strategies of retailers of consumer goods andservices in terms of changes to final prices. From detailed data on many price changes in all the monitoredstores we have evaluated, for example, how often the prices of specific items change or rise or fall, and byhow much on average, how these indicators change during the year, whether downwards price rigidityexists and so on.The average price change frequency for all the selected items came to 0.26, which means that approximatelyone in every four prices was changed compared to the month before. A typical characteristic of theprices of regulated items was that these prices mainly rose and this usually by steps of higher percentagesand mostly at the start of the year. Food prices had a higher frequency of price changes, mainly in the caseof unprocessed foods, which is a consequence of the volatile development of the prices of agricultural commodities.The prices of tradables excluding food and fuels continuously fell for the whole of the monitoredperiod and only had a low price change frequency. The prices of non-regulated non-tradables continuouslyand smoothly rose and, with the exception of hypothetical rent and package holidays, this subgroupdemonstrated the lowest frequency of price changes. The prices of fuels changed most frequently while onaverage these price changes were the lowest in size, as they react relatively quickly to changes in the pricesof raw materials and the koruna exchange rate.

  14. Dynamic Price Dispersion of Storable Goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Cixiu

    2014-01-01

    In this paper I provide an analytical model for the rationale behind supermarket pricing patterns characterized by long-term high prices and temporary price reductions. The model is based on the understanding that temporary price reductions serve the role of price discrimination between consumers...... with different search costs and willingness to wait. I demonstrate that the high-price-low-price pattern is rational for storable goods. In a Markov-perfect equilibrium, agents’ actions depend on consumer inventory, and purchase decisions are characterized by a critical price. The equilibrium price series...... consists of one-time price reductions and several consecutive periods in which all retailers offer the regular price. The model predicts that competition is the hardest when consumer inventories are zero, and that at high inventory levels the probability of holding a sale is low....

  15. Price promotions and marketing within points of sale around high schools in Greece during the 2012 economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charis Girvalaki

    2015-12-01

    Price promotions were noted within the majority of POS close to schools. Aggressive promotional activities may hinder efforts to de-normalize tobacco use, especially during financial crisis when price promotions may pose as more attractive to potential consumers.

  16. Analysis of Interregional Commodity Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wirach Hirun

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Commodity Flow Survey (CFS was launched to collect comprehensive freight flow data throughout the kingdom of Thailand. The survey’s database is the most complete collection of commodity flow data in Thailand. The need to reveal interregional freight characteristics using available data from the CFS led to the objectives of this research. Approach: An origin destination matrix based on province was calibrated using a flexible Box-Cox function form. It used maximum likelihood and the backward method for calibration and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE and Mean Relative Error (MRE to verify the model’s performance. Independent variables were classified into three groups: origin variable, destination variable and geographic variable. The origin variable represented the behavior of the trip as generated at the place of origin. Some consumption occurred at the origin. The employment and the average plant size variables were selected for potential productivity while personal income per capita and total populations were included to explain consumption behavior at the origin. Personal income per capita and total populations were selected for destination variables which act as proxy for final demand at the destination. The third category, distance, was the most conventional friction variable for geographical variables. Results: The calibrated model revealed that origin income, origin average plant size and origin population performed poorly. Therefore these variables were eliminated. The best developed model included four strongly significant variables at a 5% level: origin employment, destination population, destination income per capita and distance. Conclusion: The results showed that the selected variables and the Box-Cox functional form were successful in explaining behavior of interregional freight transportation in Thailand. The developed model was the first interregional freight transportation model to be

  17. Towards a Gendered Agro-Commodity Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Primrose Nakazibwe

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Commodity or value chains are the dominant means to channel agro-food products from cultivators to consumers. Direct open markets are either non-existent or insignificant . These chains are also the main mechanisms for integrating underprivileged groups into the world economy. Why do global value chains generate sorrow for many and joy for a few, and why are these outcomes heavily gender biased? To look for answers this article critically reviews the post-2000 and earlier gender literature by proponents and opponents of the mainstream value chain approach. The purpose is to provide a methodological contribution on the integration of gender into the commodity chain approach. Most studies have fo cused on the economic effects of chain dynamics on women in agricultural product and labor markets. Some have extended this reasoning with social and cultural effects. Despite these advances, analytical gaps still exist as most existing research has concentrated on the agricultural nodes of modern, high value chains and lacks a gendered conceptual foundation. Scarce attention has been given to traditional staple crops, non-agricultural nodes, and feed back effects of gender relations on the chain. Our results indicate that an appropriate GCC approach should also consider the gendered impacts of the interaction between the governance structure and the institutiona l embeddedness, as well as the consequences of intra-household division of resources and labor in all stages of the chain. These two conceptual complements will be needed to explain the opportunities and constraints to improve gender equity in traditional and modern agro-commodity chains.

  18. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    This article explores factors influencing the motivation and performance of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Several challenges are related to the classical dilemma of matrix organization, but with particular implications in this specific context of purchasing. We report on a reward...... system which was intended to support collective team effort, yet enhanced conflicts of interest in the matrix structure, discuss leadership, goal alignment and career tracks, and debate when and whether a team structure is appropriate in the pursuit of corporate purchasing synergies. The article is based...

  19. Il livello dei prezzi e la politica monetaria (The Price Level and Monetary Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Most central banks are required or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is what index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

  20. Antimicrobial price variation: Conundrum of medical profession!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rataboli P

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Pharmacoeconomics plays a pivotal role in clinical practice. High medicine prices can adversely affect a patient′s finances and compliance. The Indian pharmaceutical industry has become a cornucopia of medicines with wide variation in prices for the same medicine marketed under different brand names. Price list of available antimicrobial brands was procured from a commercial drug directory. Average price of widely prescribed oral antimicrobials was found and price variation between different brands was calculated. The variation in medicine prices was found to be from 95% lower to more than 350% higher than the average price. Implications of price variation in clinical practice are discussed and remedial measures suggested.

  1. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  2. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  3. Using theory to identify beliefs associated with support for policies to raise the price of high-fat and high-sugar foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niederdeppe, Jeff; Porticella, Norman; Shapiro, Michael A

    2012-01-01

    Public policies designed to dramatically raise the price of high-fat and high-sugar foods have received substantial attention from researchers and the media. Although econometric studies suggest that these policies could reduce obesity rates, they are likely to face substantial public opposition. This study used the theory of perceived responsibility and social motivation as a framework to analyze data from a politically diverse convenience sample of 500 adults in upstate New York. The authors examined associations between attribution beliefs and policy support to identify what types of scientific evidence and accompanying messages appear most likely to generate public support for price-raising policies. Results suggest that public health advocates and health communicators could benefit from an increased emphasis on advertising for unhealthy foods as a cause of obesity and the food industry's (manufacturers, advertisers, markets, and restaurants) responsibility for addressing the problem.

  4. India's grain security policy in the era of high food prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Wusheng; Bandara, Jayatilleke

    2017-01-01

    This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the fiscal and welfare costs of the market stabilisation and insulating food policy of India during the 2007-08 global food crisis. We demonstrate that domestic food grain price stabilisation through simultaneously subsidising...... consumers and producers and restricting exports entailed huge fiscal costs and equally large welfare costs to India, an outcome that is almost always the worst as compared to the alternative policy mixes examined in this study. While the most market-oriented domestic and trade policy alternatives that would...... generate better welfare effects and the least fiscal costs may not be feasible due to political economy considerations, we argue that there exist some 'middle-ground' policy mixes featuring partial relaxations of domestic subsidies on either food grains or fertilisers and/or less restrictive border...

  5. Dynamic Price Dispersion of Storable Goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Cixiu

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I provide an analytical model for the rationale behind supermarket pricing patterns characterized by long-term high prices and temporary price reductions. Based on the understanding that temporary price reductions serve the role of price discrimination between consumers with different...... search costs and willingness to wait, I construct a dynamic model of oligopoly retailers selling a homogeneous storable good. The model takes into account consumer heterogeneity with respect to search cost, inventory cost, and store loyalty. I demonstrate that the high-price-low-price pattern is rational...... for storable goods. In a Markov-perfect equilibrium, agents’ actions depend on consumer inventory, and purchase decisions are characterized by a critical price. The equilibrium price series consists of one-time price reductions and several consecutive periods in which all retailers offer the regular price...

  6. High food prices and the global financial crisis have reduced access to nutritious food and worsened nutritional status and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, Henk-Jan; de Pee, Saskia; Sanogo, Issa; Subran, Ludovic; Bloem, Martin W

    2010-01-01

    A global economic and financial crisis is engulfing the developing world, coming on top of high food and fuel prices. This paper assesses the impact of the crises on food consumption, nutrition, and health. Several methods were applied, including risk analysis using the cost of the food basket, assessment surveys, simulations, regression analysis using a food consumption score (FCS), reflecting diet frequency and diversity, and a review of the impact of such dietary changes on nutritional status and health. The cost of the food basket increased in several countries, forcing households to reduce quality and quantity of food consumed. The FCS, which is a measure of diet diversity, is negatively correlated with food prices. Simulations show that energy consumption declined during 2006-2010 in nearly all developing regions, resulting potentially in an additional 457 million people (of 4.5 billion) at risk of being hungry and many more unable to afford the dietary quality required to perform, develop, and grow well. As a result of the crises, large numbers of vulnerable households have reduced the quality and quantity of foods they consume and are at risk of increased malnutrition. Population groups most affected are those with the highest requirements, including young children, pregnant and lactating women, and the chronically ill (particularly people with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis). Because undernutrition during the first 2 y of life has life-long consequences, even short-term price rises will have long-term effects. Thus, measures to mitigate the impact of the crises are urgently required.

  7. ESTOQUES DE COMMODITIES: ANÃ LISE DO VALOR SOB A ÓTICA DA TEORIA DO CUSTO CORRENTE

    OpenAIRE

    Leo Sabadin, Anderson; Gallon, Alessandra Vasconcelos; Grunow, Aloisio

    2008-01-01

    Due to the volatility of commodity prices, the application of the current cost theory in the evaluation of stocks is essential for providing information on the performance of agricultural cooperatives. The objective of this work was to check the economies and diseconomies in the stock cost of three commodities (soye, wheat and corn) in an agricultural cooperative in the state of Paraná. A descriptive and quantitative research was carried out, including a case study demonstrating the use of ma...

  8. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  9. Approximate option pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalasani, P.; Saias, I. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Jha, S. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1996-04-08

    As increasingly large volumes of sophisticated options (called derivative securities) are traded in world financial markets, determining a fair price for these options has become an important and difficult computational problem. Many valuation codes use the binomial pricing model, in which the stock price is driven by a random walk. In this model, the value of an n-period option on a stock is the expected time-discounted value of the future cash flow on an n-period stock price path. Path-dependent options are particularly difficult to value since the future cash flow depends on the entire stock price path rather than on just the final stock price. Currently such options are approximately priced by Monte carlo methods with error bounds that hold only with high probability and which are reduced by increasing the number of simulation runs. In this paper the authors show that pricing an arbitrary path-dependent option is {number_sign}-P hard. They show that certain types f path-dependent options can be valued exactly in polynomial time. Asian options are path-dependent options that are particularly hard to price, and for these they design deterministic polynomial-time approximate algorithms. They show that the value of a perpetual American put option (which can be computed in constant time) is in many cases a good approximation to the value of an otherwise identical n-period American put option. In contrast to Monte Carlo methods, the algorithms have guaranteed error bounds that are polynormally small (and in some cases exponentially small) in the maturity n. For the error analysis they derive large-deviation results for random walks that may be of independent interest.

  10. Global stocks of selected mineral-based commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilburn, David R.; Bleiwas, Donald I.; Karl, Nick A.

    2016-12-05

    IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, analyzes mineral and metal supply chains by identifying and describing major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. This report focuses on an important component of the world’s supply chain: the amounts and global distribution of major consumer, producer, and exchange stocks of selected mineral commodities. In this report, the term “stock” is used instead of “inventory” and refers to accumulations of mined ore, intermediate products, and refined mineral-based commodities that are in a form that meets the agreed-upon specifications of a buyer or processor of intermediate products. These may include certain ores such as bauxite, concentrates, smelter products, and refined metals. Materials sometimes referred to as inventory for accounting purposes, such as ore contained in a deposit or in a leach pile, or materials that need to be further processed before they can be shipped to a consumer, are not considered. Stocks may be held (owned) by consumers, governments, investors, producers, and traders. They may serve as (1) a means to achieve economic, social, and strategic goals through government policies; (2) a secure source of supply to meet demand and to mitigate potential shortages in the supply chain; (3) a hedge to mitigate price volatility; and (4) vehicles for speculative investment.The paucity and uneven reliability of data for stocks of ores and concentrates and for material held by producers, consumers, and merchants hinder the accurate estimating of the size and distribution of this portion of the supply chain for certain commodities. This paper reviews the more visible stocks held in commodity exchange warehouses distributed throughout the world.

  11. Success Essentials of Yiwu Small Commodity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Han, Yu

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this thesis was to find the success factors of Yiwu Small Commodity Market. Beside this main objective, the historical reasons of Yiwu Small Commodity Market’s formation also have been analyzed. The purpose was to integrate the historical reasons and internal reasons together to get more comprehensive analysis results of Yiwu market. During the process of research, interviews of five shopkeepers in Yiwu Small Commodity Market were done. The interviews were held in April 2...

  12. Academic Library Responses to Journal Price Discrimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haley, Jean Walstrom; Talaga, James

    1992-01-01

    Discusses the nature and extent of discriminatory pricing by journal publishers, and reports on a survey of academic libraries that was conducted to assess the effectiveness of strategies used by libraries to mitigate the effects of high journal prices and price discrimination, i.e., higher prices for both institutions and foreign subscribers.…

  13. Aromatherapy Oils: Commodities, Materials, Essences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Barcan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the essential oils that are the central tools of aromatherapy and uses them as a case study for different approaches to material culture. It considers the conceptual and political implications of thinking of essential oils as, in turn, commodities, materials and essences. I argue that both cultural studies and aromatherapy have something to learn from each other. Classic materialist approaches might do well to focus more attention on the material properties and effects of things. Aromatherapy, on the other hand, could benefit from the enriched political understanding associated with classic materialist critique. New materialist strains of cultural studies may also find the vibrancy of matter that underpins many CAM/New Age practices worthy of examination.

  14. The high price of "free" trade: U.S. trade agreements and access to medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopert, Ruth; Gleeson, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    The United States' pursuit of increasingly TRIPS-Plus levels of intellectual property protection for medicines in bilateral and regional trade agreements is well recognized. Less so, however, are U.S. efforts through these agreements to influence and constrain the pharmaceutical coverage programs of its trading partners. Although arguably unsuccessful in the Australia- U.S. Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA), the U.S. nevertheless succeeded in its bilateral FTA with South Korea (KORUS) in establishing prescriptive provisions pertaining to the operation of coverage and reimbursement programs for medicines and medical devices, which have the potential to adversely impact future access in that country. More recently, draft texts leaked from the current Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) negotiations show that U.S. objectives include not only AUSFTA-Plus and KORUS-Plus IP provisions but also ambitious inroads into the domestic health programs of its TPPA partners. This highlights the apparent conflict between trade goals - pursued through multilateral legal instruments to promote economic "health"- and public health objectives, such as the development of treatments for neglected diseases, the pursuit of efficiency and equity in priority setting, and the procurement of medicines at prices that reflect their therapeutic value and facilitate affordable access. © 2013 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  15. Patients' views on price shopping and price transparency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semigran, Hannah L; Gourevitch, Rebecca; Sinaiko, Anna D; Cowling, David; Mehrotra, Ateev

    2017-06-01

    Driven by the growth of high deductibles and price transparency initiatives, patients are being encouraged to search for prices before seeking care, yet few do so. To understand why this is the case, we interviewed individuals who were offered access to a widely used price transparency website through their employer. Qualitative interviews. We interviewed individuals enrolled in a preferred provider organization product through their health plan about their experience using the price transparency tool (if they had done so), their past medical experiences, and their opinions on shopping for care. All interviews were transcribed and manually coded using a thematic coding guide. In general, respondents expressed frustration with healthcare costs and had a positive opinion of the idea of price shopping in theory, but 2 sets of barriers limited their ability to do so in reality. The first was the salience of searching for price information. For example, respondents recognized that due to their health plan benefits design, they would not save money by switching to a lower-cost provider. Second, other factors were more important than price for respondents when choosing a provider, including quality and loyalty to current providers. We found a disconnect between respondents' enthusiasm for price shopping and their reported use of a price transparency tool to shop for care. However, many did find the tool useful for other purposes, including checking their claims history. Addressing the barriers to price shopping identified by respondents can help inform ongoing and future price transparency initiatives.

  16. Fair pricing, and pricing paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Swart

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The St Petersburg Paradox revolves round the determination of a fair price for playing the St Petersburg Game. According to the original formulation, the price for the game is infinite, and, therefore, paradoxical. Although the St Petersburg Paradox can be seen as concerning merely a game, Paul Samuelson (1977 calls it a “fascinating chapter in the history of ideas”, a chapter that gave rise to a considerable number of papers over more than 200 years involving fields such as probability theory and economics. In a paper in this journal, Vivian (2013 undertook a numerical investigation of the St Petersburg Game. In this paper, the central issue of the paradox is identified as that of fair (risk-neutral pricing, which is fundamental in economics and finance and involves important concepts such as no arbitrage, discounting, and risk-neutral measures. The model for the St Petersburg Game as set out in this paper is new and analytical and resolves the so-called pricing paradox by applying a discounting procedure. In this framework, it is shown that there is in fact no infinite price paradox, and simple formulas for obtaining a finite price for the game are also provided.

  17. A route-based decomposition for the Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette

    2012-01-01

    The Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem routes flow through a capacitated graph such that each commodity uses at most k paths and such that the total amount of routedflow is maximized. This paper proposes a branch-and-price algorithm based on a route-based Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition......, where a route consists of up to k paths. Computational results show that the new algorithm has best performance on seven benchmark instances and is capable of solving two previously unsolved instances....

  18. Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronde, Toon van der; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Pieters, Toine

    2017-01-01

    Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of QALY measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines.

  19. Do increases in cigarette prices lead to increases in sales of cigarettes with high tar and nicotine yields?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrelly, Matthew C; Loomis, Brett R; Mann, Nathan H

    2007-10-01

    We used scanner data on cigarette prices and sales collected from supermarkets across the United States from 1994 to 2004 to test the hypothesis that cigarette prices are positively correlated with sales of cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content. During this period the average inflation-adjusted price for menthol cigarettes increased 55.8%. Price elasticities from multivariate regression models suggest that this price increase led to an increase of 1.73% in sales-weighted average tar yields and a 1.28% increase in sales-weighted average nicotine yields for menthol cigarettes. The 50.5% price increase of nonmenthol varieties over the same period yielded an estimated increase of 1% in tar per cigarette but no statistically significant increase in nicotine yields. An ordered probit model of the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette strength (ultra-light, light, full flavor, unfiltered) offers an explanation: As cigarette prices increase, the probability that stronger cigarette types will be sold increases. This effect is larger for menthol than for nonmenthol cigarettes. Our results are consistent with earlier population-based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies showing that higher cigarette prices and taxes are associated with increasing consumption of higher-yield cigarettes by smokers.

  20. Retail Pricing Behavior for Perishable Produce Products in the US with Implications for Farmer Welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Chenguang; Sexton, Richard J.

    2009-01-01

    The typical model of retail pricing for produce products assumes retailers set price equal to the farm price plus a certain markup. However, observations from scanner data indicate a large degree of price dispersion in the grocery retailing market. In addition to markup pricing behavior, we document three alternative leading pricing patterns: fixed (constant) pricing, periodic sale, and high-low pricing. Retail price variations under these alternative pricing regimes in general have little co...

  1. From creation to consumption: objects and commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angélica Bautista López

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Objects, persons and ideas are all merely merchandise in a world that is highly industrialised and utterly superficial. Consumer societies produce a profusion of merchandise. In strictly economic terms, merchandise is whatever has an exchange-value, in  a world where objects are valued for their utility. So goods are whatever is useful, where use can be measured in monetary terms. This perspective impoverishes social relations. People relate only insofar as their value dictates, and that value is merely utilitarian. Moreover, this commercialisation reaches up to impoverish society as a whole. All this is the result of a long process of objectification which, seeing the world as the exchange of goods, ends up treating people just like any other tradable commodity. This article takes a critical look at the processes involved, and proposes an explanation in terms of the social construction of 'utility''.

  2. 44 CFR 206.151 - Food commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Food commodities. 206.151 Section 206.151 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF... Food commodities. (a) The Administrator will assure that adequate stocks of food will be ready...

  3. 7 CFR 250.57 - Commodity schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FOOD AND NUTRITION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL REGULATIONS AND POLICIES-FOOD DISTRIBUTION DONATION OF FOODS FOR USE IN THE UNITED STATES, ITS... Child Nutrition Programs § 250.57 Commodity schools. (a) Categorization of commodity schools....

  4. How to time the commodities markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Basu; R. Oomen; A. Stremme

    2010-01-01

    In this article we construct and investigate the performance of elementary trading strategies that allow an investor to time between equities and commodities. Our strategies appear to capture time-varying risk premiums in the equity and commodity markets, enabling them to successfully time the marke

  5. Effects of Policy Reforms on Price Transmission in Coffee Markets: Evidence from Zambia and Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda; Abdulai, Awudu

    2013-01-01

    In the late 1990s, several governments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) embarked on various market reforms to improve commodity market performance. The success of such market reforms depends partly on the strength of the transmission of price signals between spatially separated markets and between different levels of commodity value chains. This study takes a look at these issues through an analysis of coffee producer prices for Zambia and Tanzania.

  6. Scientific Research: Commodities or Commons?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeir, Koen

    2013-10-01

    Truth is for sale today, some critics claim. The increased commodification of science corrupts it, scientific fraud is rampant and the age-old trust in science is shattered. This cynical view, although gaining in prominence, does not explain very well the surprising motivation and integrity that is still central to the scientific life. Although scientific knowledge becomes more and more treated as a commodity or as a product that is for sale, a central part of academic scientific practice is still organized according to different principles. In this paper, I critically analyze alternative models for understanding the organization of knowledge, such as the idea of the scientific commons and the gift economy of science. After weighing the diverse positive and negative aspects of free market economies of science and gift economies of science, a commons structured as a gift economy seems best suited to preserve and take advantage of the specific character of scientific knowledge. Furthermore, commons and gift economies promote the rich social texture that is important for supporting central norms of science. Some of these basic norms might break down if the gift character of science is lost. To conclude, I consider the possibility and desirability of hybrid economies of academic science, which combine aspects of gift economies and free market economies. The aim of this paper is to gain a better understanding of these deeper structural challenges faced by science policy. Such theoretical reflections should eventually assist us in formulating new policy guidelines.

  7. Commercial fish price shock behaviour in Akwa Ibom State ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Monthly price of low quality fresh fish; high quality fresh fish; low quality dry fish; high ... (fisherman price) and its corresponding urban price alone the food chain. The result confirmed significant short and long run market integration between ...

  8. Analysis on the Comparison of Vegetable Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Na; LI; Jianmin; SHI

    2013-01-01

    In 2010,the garlic,bean and ginger became more expensive than ever,which made some people’s life harder.In response to such phenomena,the retail price and wholesale price at the producers’ end,the retail price and wholesale price at distributors’ end,and consumption related data(disposable income,consumption expenditure,fresh vegetables amount from 2004 to 2011 were compared and analyzed in this paper.Results showed that the average price(selling price,wholesale price and retail price) of five kinds of vegetables generally rose.There was certain differences in the price change range.Since 2004,especially in 2009 the vegetable prices had been so high that it had influenced the life of low income families in China.

  9. 17 CFR 14.4 - Violation of Commodity Exchange Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Violation of Commodity Exchange Act. 14.4 Section 14.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION RULES RELATING TO SUSPENSION OR DISBARMENT FROM APPEARANCE AND PRACTICE § 14.4 Violation of Commodity...

  10. Sorption of sulfuryl fluoride by food commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriranjini, Venkata-rao; Rajendran, Somiahnadar

    2008-08-01

    The use of sulfuryl fluoride, a structural fumigant for termite and woodborer control, has recently been expanded to treating stored food commodities and food facilities. There is, however, a lack of data on the sorption of sulfuryl fluoride by food commodities. Knowledge about sorption is important in the context of effective treatment and residues. When sulfuryl fluoride was applied at a dose of 50 g m(-3) to various food commodities (total 68) with 300 g per replicate in 0.75 L gas wash bottles (fumigation chambers) at 25 +/- 1 degrees C, in most cases (81%) the gas concentrations in the free space of the commodities exceeded 50 g m(-3) (range 51-80 g m(-3)) at the end of 24 h exposure. In chambers without the substrate, an average concentration of 49.7 g m(-3) was recorded. About 54% of the commodities showed low-level ( 50%). The latter include white oats (terminal gas concentration 17.8 g m(-3)), some of the decorticated split pulses (24.0-29.3 g m(-3)), chickpea flour (26.3 g m(-3)), dried ginger (29.0 g m(-3)), refined wheat flour (30.3 g m(-3)) and coriander powder (40.5 g m(-3)). In unfumigated control commodities, owing to interfering volatiles, Fumiscope readings in the range 0-13 were noted. Sulfuryl fluoride has the advantage of a low or moderate level of sorption with the majority of the food commodities.

  11. Wavelet low- and high-frequency components as features for predicting stock prices with backpropagation neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecasting model that integrates the discrete wavelet transform (DWT and backpropagation neural networks (BPNN for predicting financial time series. The presented model first uses the DWT to decompose the financial time series data. Then, the obtained approximation (low-frequency and detail (high-frequency components after decomposition of the original time series are used as input variables to forecast future stock prices. Indeed, while high-frequency components can capture discontinuities, ruptures and singularities in the original data, low-frequency components characterize the coarse structure of the data, to identify the long-term trends in the original data. As a result, high-frequency components act as a complementary part of low-frequency components. The model was applied to seven datasets. For all of the datasets, accuracy measures showed that the presented model outperforms a conventional model that uses only low-frequency components. In addition, the presented model outperforms both the well-known auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA model and the random walk (RW process.

  12. Mountain substitutability and peak load pricing of high alpine peaks as a management tool to reduce environmental damage: a contingent valuation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loomis, John B; Keske, Catherine M

    2009-04-01

    High alpine peaks throughout the world are under increasing environmental pressure from hikers, trekkers, and climbers. Colorado's "Fourteeners", peaks with summits above 14,000 feet are no exception. Most of these peaks have no entrance fees, and reach ecological and social carrying capacity on weekends. This paper illustrates how a series of dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions can be used to evaluate substitutability between different alpine peaks and quantify the price responsiveness to an entrance fee. Using this approach, we find that peak load pricing would decrease use of popular Fourteeners in Colorado by 22%. This reduction is due almost entirely to substitution, rather than income effects. There is also price inelastic demand, as 60% of the hikers find no substitution for their specific Fourteener at the varying cost increases posed in the survey. The no substitute group has a mean net benefit of $294 per hiker, per trip, considerably higher than visitor net benefits in most recreational use studies.

  13. S-shape relationship between customer satisfaction and willingness to pay premium prices for high quality cured pork products in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotes-Torres, Alejandro; Muñoz-Gallego, Pablo A; Cotes-Torres, José Miguel

    2012-03-01

    This paper explores 2 different probabilistic models explaining willingness to pay premium prices for high-quality cured products from the swine industry. Seven cured pork products (sausage, fuet, ham, loin, shoulder, salami and pepperoni) were studied in 9 food-stores in Valladolid, Spain. Consumers of the products were interviewed (686 completed surveys). It was found by using mixed effect statistical models that the relationship between willingness to pay a premium price and customer satisfaction had nonlinear behavior, following an S-shape with inverted slope which was the first empirical evidence of this type of behavior in meat products in real market conditions. It was also established that the interaction between satisfaction and current expenditure on the product was significant and indispensable for explaining consumers' willingness to pay premium price for cured pork products.

  14. Pairs trading the commodity futures curve

    OpenAIRE

    Nikkanen, A. (Antti)

    2013-01-01

    I create a pairs trade on the commodity futures curve, which captures the roll returns of commodity futures and minimizes the standard deviation of the returns. The end results is a strategy that has an annualized arithmetic return of 6,04% and an annualized standard deviation of 2,01%. Transaction costs and liquidity are also accounted for. The goal was to create and backtest a trading strategy that tries to capture the roll return component of commodity futures returns. In order to redu...

  15. Price setting in turbulent times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursdóttir, Ásgerdur; Vignisdóttir, Karen Á.

    -dependent pricing increases as domestic labour costs rise relative to total production costs. The results provide important insight into inflation dynamics due to an interaction between high and asymmetric exchange rate pass-through and price indexation. This interaction causes an exchange rate depreciation...... in the domestic market by their direct exposure to exchange rate movements captured by imported input costs as a share of total p duction costs. More exposed firms are found to be more likely to use state-dependent pricing, to adjust their prices in response to exchange rate changes, and to rely on increasing...

  16. Prices of RE Products Soaring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Prices of light rare earth products in Baotou rose on the full scale in July. Price of lanthana reached RMB 12,000 - 13,000/t, that of ceria RMB 12,000/t, praseodymia RMB 70,000 - 72,000/t, Pr-Nd oxides RMB 52,000/t, neodymia RMB 65,000/t. Despite the high price of Pr-Nd oxides and neodymia, no goods are available at hand. Price rising is attributed to enforcement of environmental protection policy and heightening project suspending of Baogang tailings dam. RE separation enterprises along Yellow River have ...

  17. Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

  18. Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity fu

  19. Price duration versus trading volume in high-frequency data for selected DAX companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Mitterer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The properties of the time series of durations between consecutive trades of a particular stock have been studied by many contributors in the literature of financial econometrics. Among them are highly prominent scientists like Engle (2000 and Gourieroux and Jasiak (2001. The importance of this topic, accompanied by the growing availability of (ultra-high-frequency data, has prompted an increase of contributions in recent years. Intensive research based on high-frequency data has several financial motivations. First of all, it is linked with microstructure theory. Secondly, it contributes to the literature on stochastic time deformation. But the most important need for research on the dynamics of trade durations is the necessity to manage liquidity risk. The reason is that durations between the following trades are a widely accepted measures of market liquidity. In addition, their volatility reflects the liquidity risk.

  20. Il livello dei prezzi e la politica monetaria (The Price Level and Monetary Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Most central banks are required or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is what index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.  JEL Codes: E31, E52Keywords: Cost of Living, Interest Rates, Interest; Monetary Policy, Monetary, Policy, Price Level, Prices

  1. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  2. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs  extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  3. Study on Impact Mechanism of Commodity Price Fluctuations Based on the Monetary Factors:Empirical Analysis of Copper Market%基于货币因素的我国大宗商品价格波动影响机理--铜市场实证

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高鹤溪

    2014-01-01

    基于长期与短期两个视角,采用2001~2013年的月度数据,通过构建协整检验、广义脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,考察了主要货币因素:货币供应量与利率对我国期铜价格的动态影响,结果表明:货币供应量、利率与期铜价格之间存在长期均衡关系;在短期内,货币供应量对期铜价格具有正向影响,而利率对期铜价格的影响总体为负,且利率的影响作用相对较大。%Based on long-term and short-term perspectives, using monthly data from 2001 to 2013, by building cointegra-tion, generalizing impulse response function and using variance decomposition method to investigate the major currencies factors:the dynamic influence of the money supply and interest rates on the price of copper, the results showed that: the money sup-ply, interest rates and copper prices has long-term equilibrium relationship; in the short term, the money supply has a positive effect on copper prices, while the interest rate has overall negative effect on copper prices, and the impact of interest rates has relatively large effect.

  4. Methodology for oil prices projections: a study about oil prices differentials for Brent, Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin; Metodologia de projecao de precos de petroleos: um estudo dos diferenciais de precos entre o 'Brent', Arabe Leve, 'Bonny Light' e Marlin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Giovani; Aragao, Amanda; Valle, Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Oil is not homogenous commodity in terms of its chemical and physical properties, differing from one to another in density (API degree), sulfur content, acidity etc. Such properties imply in price differentials (discount or premium) for each crude to another in the international market. This study presents a basic model to forecasts price of various crudes based on one 'marker' or reference crude price by applying econometric formulations. The relevant crudes for the study are Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin, while the 'marker' crude is the Brent. Based on a scenario for the Brent price, prices of Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin are forecast to 2020. Findings show that price differentials to Brent are minus US$ 5.09-6.57/b (discount) to Arab Light, plus US$ 1.56-3.47/b (premium) to Bonny Light and minus US$ 9.02-13.95/b (discount) to Marlin in the period analyzed (in constant prices of May/2007). Although such figures are in harmony with expected results (theoretical foundations) of discount/premium by crude quality, structural changes in oil market (in particular, large modifications in world refining conversion capacity), catalyzed by high oil prices and energy policy, may reduce forecast strength of the specifications proposed. (author)

  5. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  6. Accelerating semantic graph databases on commodity clusters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morari, Alessandro; Castellana, Vito G.; Haglin, David J.; Feo, John T.; Weaver, Jesse R.; Tumeo, Antonino; Villa, Oreste

    2013-10-06

    We are developing a full software system for accelerating semantic graph databases on commodity cluster that scales to hundreds of nodes while maintaining constant query throughput. Our framework comprises a SPARQL to C++ compiler, a library of parallel graph methods and a custom multithreaded runtime layer, which provides a Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) programming model with fork/join parallelism and automatic load balancing over a commodity clusters. We present preliminary results for the compiler and for the runtime.

  7. Chocolate price fluctuations may cause depression: an analysis of price pass-through in the cocoa chain

    OpenAIRE

    Araujo Bonjean, Catherine; Jean-François BRUN

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore the channels of transmission of the fluctuations in the world price of cocoa to the consumer of chocolate bars in France. This case study can be considered as an illustration of a more general pattern of asymmetric vertical price transmission in the commodity-final product chain. Two types of asymmetry are suspected: asymmetry in the transmission of positive and negative shocks that may reflect non-competitive behavior in the chocolate industry and asymmetr...

  8. Long-term Memory and Volatility Clustering in Daily and High-frequency Price Changes

    CERN Document Server

    Oh, G J; Um, C J; Kim, Seunghwann; Oh, GabJin; Um, Cheol-Jun

    2006-01-01

    We study the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA). For all daily and high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property is detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property is found in the volatility time series. The possible causes of the long-term memory property are investigated using the return data filtered by the AR(1) model, reflecting the short-term memory property, and the GARCH(1,1) model, reflecting the volatility clustering property, respectively. Notably, we found that the memory effect in the AR(1) filtered return and volatility time series remains unchanged, while the long-term memory property either disappeared or diminished significantly in the volatility series of the GARCH(1,1) filtered data. We also found that in the high-frequency data the long-term memory property may be generated by the volatility clustering as well as higher autocorrelation. Our results i...

  9. Road pricing with complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Van Dender, Kurt

    2013-01-01

    , and a highly stylised model of congestion is used. The simple analysis also ignores that real pricing schemes are only rough approximations to ideal systems and that inefficiencies in related markets potentially affect the case for congestion charges. The canonical model tends to understate the marginal...

  10. Price of Terbia Soaring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Recently, price of terbia soars to RMB $2600/ nearly changing by day. It is estimated that it will climt RMB$3000/Kg or so. Rising of terbia is mainly driven following factors: 1. Reduced Raw Materials High terbium contained Longnan ore in Ganzhou completely stopped leaching, which will result in the sh

  11. High-frequency drug purity and price series as tools for explaining drug trends and harms in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Nick; Caulkins, Jonathan P; Ritter, Alison; Quinn, Catherine; Dietze, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Methamphetamine-related harms in Victoria have increased recently in the context of stable or declining use prevalence. We determine how changes in price and purity of methamphetamine compared to other drugs such as heroin may, in part, explain these divergent patterns. Detailed methamphetamine and heroin purchase price data from 2152 participant interviews from the Melbourne Injecting Drug User cohort study were used to generate drug price series for the period January 2009-June 2013. Data on drug purity from 8818 seizures made within Victoria were used to generate drug purity series during the same period. Purity-adjusted price data for methamphetamine and heroin were obtained for the period 2009-13 by combining the two data sets. While the average purity of heroin seizures remained consistent and low, the average purity of powder and of crystal methamphetamine seizures increased from 12% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 10-14%] to 37% (95% CI = 20-54%) and 21% (95% CI = 18-23%) to 64% (95% CI = 60-68%), respectively. Crystal methamphetamine purity was bimodal, with observations generally less than 20% or greater than 70%. The average unadjusted price per gram for heroin decreased from $374 (95% CI = $367-381) to $294 (95% CI = $280-308), powder methamphetamine did not change significantly from $252 (95% CI = $233-271), and crystal methamphetamine increased substantially from $464 (95% CI = $416-511) in 2009 to $795 (95% CI = $737-853) in 2011. This increase was offset by an even greater increase in purity, meaning the average purity-adjusted price per gram declined. Furthermore, pure prices of both methamphetamine forms were similar, whereas their unadjusted prices were not. The pure price of heroin fluctuated with no ongoing trends. Decreases in methamphetamine purity-adjusted price along with the bimodality of crystal methamphetamine purity may account for some of the recent increase in methamphetamine-related harm. For a

  12. TWO-COMMODITY PERISHABLE INVENTORY SYSTEM WITH BULK DEMAND FOR ONE COMMODITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.S.S. Yadavalli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This article considers a two-commodity continuous review inventory system in which the arriving customers belong to any one of three types, such that type 1 customers demand a single item of the first commodity, type 2 customers demand bulk items of the second commodity, and type 3 customers demand one item of the first commodity and bulk items of the second commodity. The arrivals of all three types of customers are assumed to be a Markovian arrival process (MAP. It is also assumed that the number of items demanded for the second commodity is a random variable. The ordering policy is to place orders for both commodities when the inventory levels are below prefixed levels for both commodities. The lead time is assumed to have a phase type distribution, and the demands that occur during stock out period are assumed to be lost. The joint probability distribution for both commodities is obtained in the steady state case. Various measures of system performance and the total expected cost rate in the steady state are derived. The results are illustrated with numerical examples.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: ’n Tweeprodukstelsel se voorraad vir klante word kontinu hersien. Die vraag na die produktipes word gekenmerk deur klantvoorkeure. Die versoektempo van klante vir voorraad word aanvaar as ’n Markovproses. Aannames word gemaak oor vraaghoeveelhede en aanlooptyd. Die resultate van die ondersoek word voorgehou via syfervoorbeelde.

  13. Live HDR video streaming on commodity hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamee, Joshua; Hatchett, Jonathan; Debattista, Kurt; Chalmers, Alan

    2015-09-01

    High Dynamic Range (HDR) video provides a step change in viewing experience, for example the ability to clearly see the soccer ball when it is kicked from the shadow of the stadium into sunshine. To achieve the full potential of HDR video, so-called true HDR, it is crucial that all the dynamic range that was captured is delivered to the display device and tone mapping is confined only to the display. Furthermore, to ensure widespread uptake of HDR imaging, it should be low cost and available on commodity hardware. This paper describes an end-to-end HDR pipeline for capturing, encoding and streaming high-definition HDR video in real-time using off-the-shelf components. All the lighting that is captured by HDR-enabled consumer cameras is delivered via the pipeline to any display, including HDR displays and even mobile devices with minimum latency. The system thus provides an integrated HDR video pipeline that includes everything from capture to post-production, archival and storage, compression, transmission, and display.

  14. Differential evolution algorithm for multi-commodity and multi-level of service hub covering location problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Setak

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The hub location problem involves a network of origins and destinations over which transportation takes place. There are many studies associated with finding the location of hub nodes and the allocation of demand nodes to these located hub nodes to transfer the only one kind of commodity under one level of service. However, in this study, carrying different commodity types from origin to destination under various levels of services (e.g. price, punctuality, reliability or transit time is studied. Quality of services experienced by users such as speed, convenience, comfort and security of transportation facilities and services is considered as the level of service. In each system, different kinds of commodities with various levels of services can be transmitted. The appropriate level of service that a commodity can be transmitted through is chosen by customer preferences and the specification of the commodity. So, a mixed integer programming formulation for single allocation hub covering location problem, which is based on the idea of transferring multi commodity flows under multi levels of service is presented. These two are applied concepts, multi-commodity and multi-level of service, which make the model's assumptions closer to the real world problems. In addition, a differential evolution algorithm is designed to find near-optimal solutions. The obtained solutions using differential evolution (DE algorithm (upper bound, where its parameters are tuned by response surface methodology, are compared with exact solutions and computed lower bounds by linear relaxation technique to prove the efficiency of proposed DE algorithm.

  15. Natural Resources Management: The Effect of the Commodity Boom on Indonesia’s Industrial Development and Welfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Monica Wihardja

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The end of the commodity boom in 2012 once again exposed Indonesia to the vulnerability of the commodity price shocks. This article reviews how Indonesia managed its natural resources in 2001–12 and when the commodity boom ends. What are the lessons learned? Indonesia’s experience is similar to that of other countries rich in natural resources, including the crowding-out of non-commodity sectors, protectionist trade regimes, fiscal inefficiency, slow skill accumulation, rising inequality and environmental damages. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–09, the early trade -policy response at the end of the commodity boom is inward-looking and protective of domestic markets and industries and aims to increase the added value of commodities by downstreaming. This trend is clearly reflected in the 2014 Trade Law, the 2014 Industry Law and the mineral export ban, which was introduced in 2009 through the 2009 Law on Mining of Coal and Minerals and took effect in 2014. Indonesia should learn from other countries in managing its resource revenues, such as through a commodity fund designed to fit its domestic specificity. Reindustrializing, increasing agricultural productivity beyond palm oil and tapping the country’s potential in the services sector including tourism and creative industries are also necessary to promote diversification in production and trade. Resource management policy should also include stronger environmental regulations.

  16. Boiteux's solution to the shifting-peak problem and the equilibrium price density in continuous time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horsley, A.; Wrobel, A.J.

    2002-01-01

    Bewley's condition on production sets, imposed to ensure the existence of an equilibrium price density when L∞ is the commodity space, is weakened to allow applications to continuous-time problems, and especially to peak-load pricing when the users' utility and production functions are Mackey contin

  17. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  18. Tracking the market: dynamic pricing and learning in a changing environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, den Arnoud V.

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic pricing of commodities without knowing the exact relation between price and demand is a much-studied problem. Most existing studies assume that the parameters describing the market are constant during the selling period. This severely reduces their practical applicability, since, in reality,

  19. The transmission and management of price volatility in food supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assefa, Tsion Taye

    2016-01-01

    The 2006-2011 period has been marked by increased volatility in food an agricultural commodity prices at a global level. In the EU, the continuous liberalization of agricultural markets under the Common Agricultural Policy has led to the exposure of EU agricultural to increasing market price

  20. An empirical test for parities between metal prices at the LME

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); P. Kofman (Paul)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractA stock price parity reflects the known resources of the commodities, while a flow parity concerns short-term supplies. Prices may not only converge in the long-run to a fixed stock parity, but also move toward sequences of short-run flow equilibria. Cointegration analysis is used in an

  1. Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d' Artis [European Commission (DG Joint Research Centre), Catholic University of Leuven (LICOS), and Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), B-1049 Brussels (Belgium)

    2011-01-15

    The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)

  2. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance to genera......High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts....... The main contribution of this paper is to quantify volatility patterns of electricity price, as penetration level of wind power increases. Results explain a direct relationship between wind penetration and electricity price volatility in a quantitative manner....

  3. StudyonMathematicalModeofQuantification Performance-to-Price Ratio

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    裴兰华; 史德战; 王冠

    2007-01-01

    Nowadays, consumers often compare the same kind of commodities and decide what to pick out when they purchase merchandise including the service. The paper discusses the mathematical mode of quantification performance-to-price ratio according to which product can be made in order to increase the competitiveness in the market.

  4. A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

  5. Role of governance in creating a commodity hub: A comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.P. Haris

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The body of work on natural gas hubs has been expanding rapidly in recent years, with most of the current work examining the creation of gas hubs focusing on either the European experience or the North American experience. In this paper, we adopt a different perspective and place the focus on experience of hub building from other international commodities. We analyse three commodities - crude oil, iron ore and coal, and draw experience on the role of governance in development of hub based prices. In particular, we propose that the role of governance is different at different stages of the pricing transition to market based pricing. Governance could play an important role at the initial stage, building the relevant soft and physical infrastructure which facilitates the reaping of first mover advantage. As the market develops, private sector players may prefer less involvement of governance, which may distort markets. With market stabilization, governance should be focused on maintaining stable rules and regulation for private sector development, as well as monitoring for further changes in global trends. To facilitate the building of a benchmark price, the public sector should adopt a long-term and overarching view on industry growth.

  6. Correlation between Economic Growth, Oil Prices and the Level of Monetization of Economy in Oil and Gas Exporting Countries: Challenges for Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Viktorovich Domashchenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of low monetization of the Russian economy occasionally provoked serious discussions on the necessity of a substantial increase for stimulating economic growth. However, this step will not change the crisis situation in resistance to structural factors, and mistakes in monetary regulation. The study of the level of monetization in the periods of stagnation and decline in oil prices for countries that export raw materials, testifies to the impossibility of stimulating economic growth only at the expense of additional money supply. Policy of inflation targeting in developing resource economies may lead to the execution of its objectives in the face of rising trend of commodity prices, monetary policy limits credit expansion. Currently falling oil prices and a liberal foreign exchange regime stimulates high inflation and curtailing loan activity. Therefore, during periods of negative commodity market conditions required a switch of monetary-credit regulation in ensuring financial stability and counteract the processes of deleverage in the real sector of the economy. Instead of the consumer price index dynamics of the credit activity should be the main indicator of regulation. The Bank of Russia should begin a cycle of lowering interest rates while reducing credit activity, even if the CPI remains high. A return to neutral monetary policy will become possible after stopping the falling of oil trend and the increase in loan activity

  7. Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2 analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables  on cocoa prices.  This research  was  carried out by  analyzing  annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM  approach was  used  to  estimate the  econometric  model  of  cocoa  price.The  estimation  results  indicated  that  cocoa  price  was  significantly  affected  by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product,  world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1,  while other  variables  were  inelastic  (E  <1.  Variables  that  affecting  cocoa  pricesin  short  run  equilibrium  were  exchange  rate  IDR-USD,  world  gross  domestic product,  world  inflation,  world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock. The  analysis  results  showed  that  world  gross  domestic  product,  world  cocoa consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1  to  cocoa  prices  in short-term.  Whereas,  the  response  of  cocoa  prices  was  inelastic  to  change  of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price

  8. 78 FR 12933 - Proceedings Before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-26

    ... / Tuesday, February 26, 2013 / Rules and Regulations#0;#0; ] COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Parts 10, 12 and 171 Proceedings Before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading...

  9. Trends in prices to commercial energy consumers in the competitive Texas electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zarnikau, Jay [University of Texas at Austin (United States); Frontier Associates LLC, Austin, TX (United States); Fox, Marilyn; Smolen, Paul [Fox, Smolen and Associates, Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2007-08-15

    To date, the price of electricity to commercial or business energy consumers has generally increased at greater rates in the areas of Texas where retail competition has been introduced than in areas that do not enjoy competition. Trends in commercial competitive prices have largely mirrored trends in residential prices. Market restructuring has tended to increase the sensitivity of retail electricity prices to changes in the price of natural gas, the marginal fuel used for generation in Texas. Consequently, the rapid increases in the commodity price of natural gas following restructuring led to increases in competitive electric rates which exceeded the increases in areas not exposed to restructuring, where the fuel component of electric rates tend to reflect a weighted average of the utilities' fuel costs. There is some evidence that pricing behavior by competitive retailers changed when the retailers affiliated with the incumbent utilities were permitted some pricing flexibility, resulting in a reduction in prices. (author)

  10. On the market value of information commodities. I. The nature of information and information commodities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mowshowitz, A. (Abbe)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractThis article lays the conceptual foundations for the study of the market value of information commodities. The terms “information” and “commodity” are given precise definitions in order to characterize “information commodity,” and thus to provide a sound basis for examining questions of

  11. Monopoly price discrimination with constant elasticity demand

    OpenAIRE

    Aguirre Pérez, Iñaki; Cowan, Simon George

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new results on the welfare e¤ects of third-degree price discrimination under constant elasticity demand. We show that when both the share of the strong market under uniform pricing and the elasticity di¤erence between markets are high enough,then price discrimination not only can increase social welfare but also consumer surplus.

  12. Changing Prices in a Weak Housing Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Dianqing

    2008-01-01

    @@ First, the adjustment in housing prices are in some cases just a regular marketing strategy. Speculation is restrained by macrocontrol policies, which naturally slows down a price increase.It is also predictable that some unreasonably high prices will need to be readjusted.

  13. Monopoly price discrimination with constant elasticity demand

    OpenAIRE

    Aguirre Pérez, Iñaki; Cowan, Simon George

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new results on the welfare e¤ects of third-degree price discrimination under constant elasticity demand. We show that when both the share of the strong market under uniform pricing and the elasticity di¤erence between markets are high enough,then price discrimination not only can increase social welfare but also consumer surplus.

  14. The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Shamim; Tsvetanov, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the time-series predictability of commodity futures excess returns from factor models that exploit two risk factors – the equally weighted average excess return on long positions in a universe of futures contracts and the return difference between the high- and low-basis portfolios. Adopting a standard set of statistical evaluation metrics, we find weak evidence that the factor models provide out-of-sample forecasts of monthly excess returns significantly better than t...

  15. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  16. Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Hélène Erkel-Rousse; Daniel Mirza

    2002-01-01

    Recent economic geography and trade empirical studies based on monopolistic competition suggest high levels of trade price elasticities (between 3 and 11). However, price elasticity estimations in trade equations using unit values as price proxies usually lead to lower values of around unity. We show that those inconclusive results may be due to some misspecification in these equations as well as measurement errors in prices. When suitable instrumental variables are used, within a panel of in...

  17. Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Hélène Erkel-Rousse; Daniel Mirza

    2002-01-01

    Recent economic geography and trade empirical studies based on monopolistic competition suggest high levels of trade price elasticities (between 3 and 11). However, price elasticity estimations in trade equations using unit values as price proxies usually lead to lower values of around unity. We show that those inconclusive results may be due to some misspecification in these equations as well as measurement errors in prices. When suitable instrumental variables are used, within a panel of in...

  18. The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Xin; Gongmeng Chen; Michael Firth

    2006-01-01

    This study investigates the efficiency of the Chinese metal futures (i.e. copper and aluminum) traded on China's Shanghai Futures Exchange. First, we thoroughly analyze the development of China's commodity futures markets, which provides a fundamental background. Then we examine the random walk and unbiasedness hypotheses for two metal futures during 1999-2004. Based on the empirical evidence, we argue that China's copper and aluminum futures markets are efficient, and that they aid the process of price discovery because futures prices can be considered as unbiased predictors of future spot prices. We attribute this efficiency to the regulatory changes made in 1999 and the increased financial skills and acumen of the participants in the market.

  19. A Positive Analysis of the Relationship Between the Affordable Housing Input Ratio and the Price of Commodity Housing in Shenyang%沈阳市经济适用房投入比对商品房价格影响的实证分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵昱; 周雷; 刘行

    2013-01-01

      Relative data of the 2002-2011 Shenyang city affordable housing and commercial housing investment and sales is selected. By empirical data analysis,it is found that Shenyang city affordable housing investment ratio has inhibitory effect on commercial housing prices. Taking Eviews6.0 as an operation platform,unit root test proves whether the data can be analyzed. And then by the co-integration test it is demonstrated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables,through the Granger causality test and error correction model to prove whether a causal relationship exists between the argument variables finally. The empirical results show that there is co-integration relationship in the long term between affordable housing investment and commercial housing price,and the unilateral causal relationship is established,the Shenyang city affordable housing investment ratio has a certain inhibition of the commercial housing prices.%  从定量的角度说明沈阳市经济适用房投入比对商品房价格的抑制作用。根据2002~2012年沈阳市统计年鉴提供的沈阳市经济适用房、商品房相关数据,以Eviews6.0为操作平台,通过单位根检验论证数据具有可分析性,通过协整关系检验论证变量间存在某种长期关系,最后通过因果关系检验和误差修正模型的构建论证变量间存在单项因果关系。实证结果表明,经济适用房投入比对商品房价格存在抑制作用,经济适用房投入比平均每增加1%。商品房价格将降低0.08%。

  20. High-Speed Rail Train Timetabling Problem: A Time-Space Network Based Method with an Improved Branch-and-Price Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisheng He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A time-space network based optimization method is designed for high-speed rail train timetabling problem to improve the service level of the high-speed rail. The general time-space path cost is presented which considers both the train travel time and the high-speed rail operation requirements: (1 service frequency requirement; (2 stopping plan adjustment; and (3 priority of train types. Train timetabling problem based on time-space path aims to minimize the total general time-space path cost of all trains. An improved branch-and-price algorithm is applied to solve the large scale integer programming problem. When dealing with the algorithm, a rapid branching and node selection for branch-and-price tree and a heuristic train time-space path generation for column generation are adopted to speed up the algorithm computation time. The computational results of a set of experiments on China’s high-speed rail system are presented with the discussions about the model validation, the effectiveness of the general time-space path cost, and the improved branch-and-price algorithm.

  1. The great plunge in oil prices: causes, consequences, and policy responses

    OpenAIRE

    Baffes, John; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Stocker, Marc

    2015-01-01

    This note combines and distills existing and new research to inform discussion on the topical policy issue of oil prices. Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel (bbl), oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014 and are expected to remain low for a considerable period of time. The drop in prices likely marks the end of the commodity supercycle that began ...

  2. Grain price and volatility transmission from international to domestic markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Minot,Nicholas; Robles, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the sources of domestic food price volatility in developing countries and the extent to which it is transmitted from international to domestic markets is critical to help design better global, regional, and domestic policies to cope with excessive food price volatility and to protect the most vulnerable groups. This paper examines price and volatility transmission from major grain commodities to 41 domestic food products across 27 countries in Africa, Latin America, and South As...

  3. Ranking of States and Commodities by Cash Receipts, 1991

    OpenAIRE

    Strickland, Roger P.; Johnson, Cheryl; Williams, Robert P.

    1992-01-01

    This publication identifies the 25 leading agricultural commodities produced in each State and the United States, ranked by the value of cash receipts. The major producing States, ranked by cash receipts, for each of the 25 leading commodities in the United States and for several major commodity groups are also identified. The information is derived from U.S. Department of Agriculture's cash receipts statistics for the marketing of agricultural commodities within States. The ranking of commod...

  4. Ranking of States and Commodities by Cash Receipts, 1992

    OpenAIRE

    Strickland, Roger P.; Steele, Cheryl J.; Williams, Robert P.

    1993-01-01

    This publication presents two types of ranking information derived from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's cash receipts statistics for the marketing of agricultural commodities within States. One type is the 25 leading commodities for each State and the Nation, ranked according to the estimated value of receipts. The second is the ranking of States by receipts from each of the 25 leading U.S. commodities and by several major commodity groups. The ranking of commodities produced in a State ...

  5. 17 CFR 4.41 - Advertising by commodity pool operators, commodity trading advisors, and the principals thereof.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advertising by commodity pool... ADVISORS Advertising § 4.41 Advertising by commodity pool operators, commodity trading advisors, and the... advertise in a manner which: (1) Employs any device, scheme or artifice to defraud any participant or client...

  6. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  7. A periodic pricing model considering reference effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal pricing strategies with reference effects in revenue management settings. We firstly propose a static pricing model with the properties of stochastic demand, finite horizon and fixed capacity, and prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Secondly, we extend the fixed pricing model to a periodic pricing model and incorporate a memory-based reference price in the demand function to investigate how the reference effect impacts on traditional revenue management decisions. We present numerical examples in both low demand situations and high demand situations for different levels of reference effects and different updating frequencies. The results show that the dynamic pricing strategies are superior to a static one even when reference effects are taken into consideration. We also provide some manage-rial insights including pricing directions, pricing dispersion and the optimal updating frequency for both demand situations.

  8. The Weird Vegetable Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The Chinese Government faces the task of stabilizing vegetable prices to avoid steep increases and dips Fluctuations of vegetable prices in China have recently caused near panic in the domestic market.Purchase prices for farm produce are decreasing dramatically

  9. The Prison Economy of Needles and Syringes: What Opportunities Exist for Blood Borne Virus Risk Reduction When Prices Are so High?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treloar, Carla; McCredie, Luke; Lloyd, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    Aim A formal Needle and Syringe Program (NSP) is not provided in Australian prisons. Injecting equipment circulates in prisons as part of an informal and illegal economy. This paper examined how this economy generates blood-borne virus (BBV) risk and risk mitigation opportunities for inmates. Method The HITS-p cohort recruited New South Wales inmates who had reported ever injecting drugs and who had a negative HCV serological test within 12 months prior to enrolment. For this study, qualitative interviews were conducted with 30 participants enrolled in HITS-p. Participants included 10 women and were incarcerated in 12 prisons. Results A needle/syringe was nominated as being typically priced in the ‘inside’ prison economy at $100-$150, with a range of $50-$350. Purchase or hire of equipment was paid for in cash (including transactions that occurred outside prison) and in exchange for drugs and other commodities. A range of other resources was required to enable successful needle/syringe economies, especially relationships with visitors and other prisoners, and violence to ensure payment of debts. Strategies to mitigate BBV risk included retaining one needle/syringe for personal use while hiring out others, keeping drug use (and ownership of equipment) “quiet”, stealing used equipment from the prison health clinic, and manufacture of syringes from other items available in the prison. Conclusions The provision of prison NSP would disrupt the inside economies built around contraband needles/syringes, as well as minimise BBV risk. However, any model of prison NSP should be interrogated for any unanticipated markets that could be generated as a result of its regulatory practices. PMID:27611849

  10. The Prison Economy of Needles and Syringes: What Opportunities Exist for Blood Borne Virus Risk Reduction When Prices Are so High?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treloar, Carla; McCredie, Luke; Lloyd, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    A formal Needle and Syringe Program (NSP) is not provided in Australian prisons. Injecting equipment circulates in prisons as part of an informal and illegal economy. This paper examined how this economy generates blood-borne virus (BBV) risk and risk mitigation opportunities for inmates. The HITS-p cohort recruited New South Wales inmates who had reported ever injecting drugs and who had a negative HCV serological test within 12 months prior to enrolment. For this study, qualitative interviews were conducted with 30 participants enrolled in HITS-p. Participants included 10 women and were incarcerated in 12 prisons. A needle/syringe was nominated as being typically priced in the 'inside' prison economy at $100-$150, with a range of $50-$350. Purchase or hire of equipment was paid for in cash (including transactions that occurred outside prison) and in exchange for drugs and other commodities. A range of other resources was required to enable successful needle/syringe economies, especially relationships with visitors and other prisoners, and violence to ensure payment of debts. Strategies to mitigate BBV risk included retaining one needle/syringe for personal use while hiring out others, keeping drug use (and ownership of equipment) "quiet", stealing used equipment from the prison health clinic, and manufacture of syringes from other items available in the prison. The provision of prison NSP would disrupt the inside economies built around contraband needles/syringes, as well as minimise BBV risk. However, any model of prison NSP should be interrogated for any unanticipated markets that could be generated as a result of its regulatory practices.

  11. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors...

  12. Investigation the possibility of Aggregation fruits and nuts, vegetables, Beans and vegetable products: Using Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem (GCCT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shabanzadeh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Fruit and nuts, all kinds of vegetables, legumes and vegetable products, including commodity baskets with high proportion of nutritive value, are of great importance for policymakers of the agricultural sector. Therefore, the study of the conditions and factors affecting the demand for these goods can be predisposing advice to control the market and other factors affecting their use. But when it comes to the country at macro level of household demand, the aggregate commodity group beomes important. In cases where it is necessary to apply the fruits or vegetables as a function of household aggregation of a group of goods to be estimated, it is necessary a group of products with the scientific method to get aggregate and form a group variable as fruits or vegetables are included in the econometric model. Therefore, due to problems such as lack of access to information on each product separately, the high cost of collecting the data, missing observations, multicollinearity problem and limited degrees of freedom, we have to use grouping and composite commodities. But it is important that the correct grouping and consistent is made because of incorrect Aggregation, as specified in the error term appears on demand system estimated and Lead to biased estimation of the values of parameters and elasticity's, Which results in an incorrect picture of consumer behavior. Study of composite conditions of Agricultural commodities, as an important topic in economics, had been considered. Because mostly, access to disaggregate of the goods is not possible, and other problems such as multicollinearity occurs by examining the separation in the econometrics model. Study of composite conditions of Agricultural commodities, as an important topic in economics, had been considered. Due to its importance in the study, condition of Aggregation fruit and nuts, all kinds of vegetables and Bean (legumes are using Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem (GCCT

  13. Drug Pricing Reforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Reference price systems for prescription drugs have found widespread use as cost containment tools. Under such regulatory regimes, patients co-pay a fraction of the difference between pharmacy retail price of the drug and a reference price. Reference prices are either externally (based on drug...... prices in other countries) or internally (based on domestic drug prices) determined. In a recent study, we analysed the effects of a change from external to internal reference pricing in Denmark in 2005, finding that the reform led to substantial reductions in prices, producer revenues, and expenditures...

  14. A Hybrid Multi-Step Model for Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Price Based on Optimization, Fuzzy Logic and Model Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Jiang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The day-ahead electricity market is closely related to other commodity markets such as the fuel and emission markets and is increasingly playing a significant role in human life. Thus, in the electricity markets, accurate electricity price forecasting plays significant role for power producers and consumers. Although many studies developing and proposing highly accurate forecasting models exist in the literature, there have been few investigations on improving the forecasting effectiveness of electricity price from the perspective of reducing the volatility of data with satisfactory accuracy. Based on reducing the volatility of the electricity price and the forecasting nature of the radial basis function network (RBFN, this paper successfully develops a two-stage model to forecast the day-ahead electricity price, of which the first stage is particle swarm optimization (PSO-core mapping (CM with self-organizing-map and fuzzy set (PCMwSF, and the second stage is selection rule (SR. The PCMwSF stage applies CM, fuzzy set and optimized weights to obtain the future price, and the SR stage is inspired by the forecasting nature of RBFN and effectively selects the best forecast during the test period. The proposed model, i.e., CM-PCMwSF-SR, not only overcomes the difficulty of reducing the high volatility of the electricity price but also leads to a superior forecasting effectiveness than benchmarks.

  15. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  16. Implementing a stochastic model for oil futures prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cortazar, Gonzalo [Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial y de Sistemas, Escuela de Ingenieria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Schwartz, Eduardo S. [Anderson School at UCLA, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481 (United States)

    2003-05-01

    This paper develops a parsimonious three-factor model of the term structure of oil futures prices that can be easily estimated from available futures price data. In addition, it proposes a new simple spreadsheet implementation procedure. The procedure is flexible, may be used with market prices of any oil contingent claim with closed form pricing solution, and easily deals with missing data problems. The approach is implemented using daily prices of all futures contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange between 1991 and 2001. In-sample and out-of-sample tests indicate that the model fits the data extremely well. Though the paper concentrates on oil, the approach can be used for any other commodity with well-developed futures markets.

  17. 22 CFR 120.4 - Commodity jurisdiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Commodity jurisdiction. 120.4 Section 120.4 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN ARMS REGULATIONS PURPOSE AND DEFINITIONS... and media. The fit of the item is its ability to physically interface or interconnect with or...

  18. Commodity chemicals from forest biomass - Bioforest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granstrom, T. [Aalto University, Espoo (Finland)], email: tom.granstrom@aalto.fi

    2012-07-01

    To develop an economic process for production of commodity chemicals from mixed forest biomass (tree tops, limbs, twigs and stumps from softwoods and hardwoods) and recycled fibers within an integrated forest products complex. The chemicals that will be produced are: butanol, isopropanol and ethanol.

  19. Commodity Sourcing Strategies: Supply Management in Action

    OpenAIRE

    Rendon, Rene G.

    2005-01-01

    Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program) This research report discusses the transformation occurring in the procurement and purchasing function, specifically as it applies to developing procurement strategies and the implementation of commodity strategies as an application of strategic sourcing. The literature review presents the theoretical framework surrounding the transformation of purchasing to supply management along with its major developments such as integrated supplier...

  20. Commodities: ¿fundamentos o burbuja especulativa?

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    ¿Son los especuladores del mercado de commodities, o son los fundamentos, ante el crecimiento de la demanda y la escasa oferta, los factores que están detrás del boom de los precios de los metales? Este análisis responde esta interrogante.

  1. 7 CFR 1421.5 - Eligible commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... extraction of oil, wheat, and other commodities designated by CCC, the determination of eligibility will be... oats, mustard seed, rapeseed, safflower seed, flaxseed, and sunflower seed used for a purpose other than to extract oil, the determination of eligibility will be based on quality requirements...

  2. Commodity Administrative Manual. Public and Private Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California State Dept. of Education, Sacramento.

    This manual was developed for agencies receiving food commodities distributed to eligible schools and noneducational organizations by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) through the California State Department of Education's Office of Surplus Property. It covers rules, regulations, and forms for recipients who are public or private schools…

  3. Global Histories, Imperial Commodities, Local Interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curry Machado, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The history of the modern world can be described through the history of the commodities that were produced, traded and consumed, on an increasingly global scale. The papers presented in this book show how in this process borders were transgressed, local agents combined with metropolitan representati

  4. Commodities Trading: An Essential Economic Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Mary A., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    This issue focuses on commodities trading as an essential economic tool. Activities include critical thinking about marketing decisions and discussion on how futures markets and options are used as important economic tools. Discussion questions and a special student project are included. (EH)

  5. Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovenskaya, Elena; Fath, Brian D.

    2017-01-01

    Global commodity trade networks are critical to our collective sustainable development. Their increasing interconnectedness pose two practical questions: (i) Do the current network configurations support their further growth? (ii) How resilient are these networks to economic shocks? We analyze the data of global commodity trade flows from 1996 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between structural properties of the global commodity trade networks and (a) their dynamic growth, as well as (b) the resilience of their growth with respect to the 2009 global economic shock. Specifically, we explore the role of network efficiency and redundancy using the information theory-based network flow analysis. We find that, while network efficiency is positively correlated with growth, highly efficient systems appear to be less resilient, losing more and gaining less growth following an economic shock. While all examined networks are rather redundant, we find that network redundancy does not hinder their growth. Moreover, systems exhibiting higher levels of redundancy lose less and gain more growth following an economic shock. We suggest that a strategy to support making global trade networks more efficient via, e.g., preferential trade agreements and higher specialization, can promote their further growth; while a strategy to increase the global trade networks’ redundancy via e.g., more abundant free-trade agreements, can improve their resilience to global economic shocks. PMID:28207790

  6. ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from management accounting aspects to show out the role of the accounting system in the short term and long term pricing and transfer pricing decisions.

  7. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  8. Effect of market factors on the short-time pricing of stock-exchange metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.

  9. Price competition and equilibrium analysis in multiple hybrid channel supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Guihua; Wang, Aihu; Sha, Jin

    2017-06-01

    The amazing boom of Internet and logistics industry prompts more and more enterprises to sell commodity through multiple channels. Such market conditions make the participants of multiple hybrid channel supply chain compete each other in traditional and direct channel at the same time. This paper builds a two-echelon supply chain model with a single manufacturer and a single retailer who both can choose different channel or channel combination for their own sales, then, discusses the price competition and calculates the equilibrium price under different sales channel selection combinations. Our analysis shows that no matter the manufacturer and retailer choose same or different channel price to compete, the equilibrium price does not necessarily exist the equilibrium price in the multiple hybrid channel supply chain and wholesale price change is not always able to coordinate supply chain completely. We also present the sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of equilibrium price and coordination wholesale price.

  10. Exporter Price Premia?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jäkel, Ina Charlotte; Sørensen, Allan

    -cut prediction on the sign of the exporter price premium. However, the model unambiguously predicts a negative exporter price premium in terms of quality-adjusted prices, i.e. prices per unit of quality. This prediction is broadly borne out in the Danish data: while the magnitude of the premium varies across...

  11. Indonesia Export, Import, and Demand for Domestic Commodities under Economics Liberalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Irawan

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to identify the behaviour of export, import and domestic commoditiesdemand in liberalization era both in the long run and the short run. This researchapplies the Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse ResponseAnalysis and Granger Causality Test. The data range from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The resultshows that in the long run the cross-price elasticity of imported non agricultural goods withrespect to demand for domestically produced goods have lower magnitudes than own priceelasticity of domestically produced goods. The demand elasticity of import commodities iselastic but that of domestic commodities is inelastic.Keywords: Import, Export, Economic Liberalization, Vector Error Correction Model

  12. The Principles and the Specifics of Trading in Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Dušan; Herbacsková, Anita

    2012-12-01

    In the present period of instability on financial markets, investments in commodities are the solution for elimination of the consequences of inflation and ensure the yield. When investing in commodities, the use of specifics of commodities compared to other assets. The distribution of commodities we can interpret for agricultural commodities, commodities of energy, precious and other metals, and weather. Therefore, in the framework of the investment portfolio are the commodities. This is the reason why one of the most popular types of investment assets now become commodities. In the interpretation of particular commodities we talk about commodity futures. The reason is that the spot market with commodities is limited storage facilities. The growth of the popularity, which allows a wide range of commodities, has caused that in addition to from institutional investors and speculators for trade may involve even small investors. This development will be supplemented by interpretation of the charts and figers, which will be commented and used for generalization of knowledge. Finally, the article will be interpreted by the further development of the market for commodities as it by article assumes from the results of research.

  13. Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Logistics, Commodities, and Waste Management Requirements for Scale-Up of Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2011-01-01

    Background The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. Methods and Findings This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Conclusions Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in “Voluntary Medical

  14. Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianna Edgil

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. CONCLUSIONS: Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in

  15. AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY, CONSUMER DEMAND AND IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kassim Adekunle Akanni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available There is persistent instability of consumer prices for most agricultural commodities in Nigeria. This is occasioned by factors such as season, input price changes, production and marketing technologies and consumer taste, among others. The market price variations often affect the level of consumer demand and food security status of the households. This study therefore examined the synergy between the agricultural commodity prices, consumer demand and food security status of the consuming households in Nigeria. A total of 360 foodgrains consumers were randomly sampled for this study from the 6 geo-political zones in the country. Results indicated that despite the various policies on agricultural prices, the market prices of foodgrains remain unstable. Specifically, the level of consumer demand and satisfaction got reduced while a large proportion of the consumers were food insecure. Major factors that are responsible for unstable consumer demand and household insecurity in the consumption of foodgrains among Nigerians include insufficient household income, increasing household size, consumer preference, market price and lack of standard measurement. With increased discipline in the style of implementation of the various price policies on agricultural commodities, it is hoped that the level of consumer demand and foodgrains security status of Nigerians will improve.

  16. Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Knud Jørgen

    Dixit's 1975 paper "Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes" constitutes a seminal contribution to the theory of tax reform analysis within a second-best general equilibrium framework. The present paper clarifies ambiguities with respect to normalisation which have led to misinterpretation of some...... system of commodity taxation as reflected in the Corlett and Hague analysis of optimal taxation in an economy with two produced commodities. Recasting work by Deaton (1981b), it generalises, using an alternative definition of the complementarity between consumption and leisure, to an economy with many...

  17. Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Knud Jørgen

    Dixit's 1975 paper "Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes" constitutes a seminal contribution to the theory of tax reform analysis within a second-best general equilibrium framework. The present paper clarifies ambiguities with respect to normalisation which have led to misinterpretation of some...... system of commodity taxation as reflected in the Corlett and Hague analysis of optimal taxation in an economy with two produced commodities. Recasting work by Deaton (1981b), it generalises, using an alternative definition of the complementarity between consumption and leisure, to an economy with many...

  18. Gas Swing Options: Introduction and Pricing using Monte Carlo Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václavík Tomáš

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Motivated by the changing nature of the natural gas industry in the European Union, driven by the liberalisation process, we focus on the introduction and pricing of gas swing options. These options are embedded in typical gas sales agreements in the form of offtake flexibility concerning volume and time. The gas swing option is actually a set of several American puts on a spread between prices of two or more energy commodities. This fact, together with the fact that the energy markets are fundamentally different from traditional financial security markets, is important for our choice of valuation technique. Due to the specific features of the energy markets, the existing analytic approximations for spread option pricing are hardly applicable to our framework. That is why we employ Monte Carlo methods to model the spot price dynamics of the underlying commodities. The price of an arbitrarily chosen gas swing option is then computed in accordance with the concept of risk-neutral expectations. Finally, our result is compared with the real payoff from the option realised at the time of the option execution and the maximum ex-post payoff that the buyer could generate in case he knew the future, discounted to the original time of the option pricing.

  19. Strategic Transfer Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Alles; Srikant Datar

    1998-01-01

    Most research into cost systems has focused on their motivational implications. This paper takes a different approach, by developing a model where two oligopolistic firms strategically select their cost-based transfer prices. Duopoly models frequently assume that firms game on their choice of prices. Product prices, however, are ultimately based on the firms' transfer prices that communicate manufacturing costs to marketing departments. It is for this reason that transfer prices will have a s...

  20. The Pricing of Payments

    OpenAIRE

    Krueger, Malte

    2009-01-01

    The pricing of payments has received increasing attention of regulators. In many cases, regulators are concerned that consumers do not face cost based prices. They argue that without cost based prices consumers will make inefficient choices. In this paper, it is argued that both, economics of scale and the particular laws governing pricing in two-sided markets provide a case against cost based pricing.

  1. ASPECTS OF REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH DYNAMIC PRICES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela\tENACHESCU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents aspects regarding the dynamics of prices of petroleum products: gasoline and diesel in Romania in the period 2003(2007-2014. Both focus on relationship-price raw material and finished product by the impact of market prices. Given that the price of fuel is a key factor in economic development but also in the living of population, this paper has proposed to analyze some aspects of the dynamics of prices of petroleum products in correlation with commodity prices in a competitive market in 2003 -2014. In the analized period, price of oil barrel has a dynamics substantially influenced by the global political turbulences but also by lower oil demand due to consumption reduction, especially lately. Increases and decreases were abrupt and unpredictable in the early years of the first decade of the XXI century. Political crises in the Middle East, the economic crisis started in 2007 and especially the crisis in Ukraine and policies adopted by the EU and the US have led to extremely large fluctuations in oil prices from one period to another . This dynamic will only cover the price of petroleum products namely gazoline and diesel for vehicles.

  2. ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Fakari Sardehae

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Poultry is an important commodity for household consumption. In recent years, price fluctuation for this commodity has caused an uncertain condition for consumers and poultry prices over the past two years has changed a lot. This has caused many changes and uncertainty in a purchase decision. Analysis of changes and volatility modeling can be a great help to predict the poultry prices and great facilities in creating appropriate policies in future. The prices of staples such as poultry consumption basket is highly variable because much of the protein is necessary for daily energy are supplied in this way to households. So when the price of chicken which has been changed over the past two years and has always been in the press and media attention, has been selected in this study. Fluctuations in price of chicken have caused a surge in consumer expectations and contributed in volatility of chicken price. Materials and Methods: In this study ARCH models have been used for daily price of poultry of Iran’s market and this was investigated for2012-13and2013-14.BecauseARCH models can model the impact of heterogeneous variance over time in time series data then the variance of time series, which is limited in time, has no time limit. Many time series are more complex than a linear patterns, thus, non-linear models are of particular importance in Economic Sciences and Econometrics. Accordingly, Engle presented that ARCH model can model the heterogeneous variance components of the error term. That is a disturbing element and modeling can help to examine and explore the relationship between the components can be found disturbing. Basically, these models fit the data to a cluster and periodic oscillations with high volatility and low volatility associated with the period. In this study, we used several different models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH, and TGARCH. The distribution of the error term of the model also followt-student distribution

  3. 7 CFR 46.39 - Inspection of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE MARKETING OF PERISHABLE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES REGULATIONS (OTHER THAN RULES OF PRACTICE) UNDER THE PERISHABLE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES ACT, 1930...

  4. European attitudes to water pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anne Kejser

    2016-01-01

    Efficient use of the water resource requires internalization of all costs in the price of water, including environmental and resource costs. However, water resource management tends to be highly political and increasing water prices are a sensitive and complicated policy matter. Hence......, there is a need for increased understanding of the implementation process and the attitudes towards implementation among the general public. This paper explores the spatial heterogeneity in the public attitude towards internalizing environmental and resource costs in the price of water across the EU regions....... Within an extensive spatial dataset constructed for the purpose, we estimate the effect of individual information levels and affordability concerns on the attitude towards environmental water pricing. Information about water problems is found to have a significant and positive effect on attitudes...

  5. Hedging Cash Flows from Commodity Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Dahlgran, Roger A.

    2005-01-01

    Agribusinesses make long-term plant-investment decisions based on discounted cash flow. It is therefore incongruous for an agribusiness firm to use cash flow as a plant-investment criterion and then to completely discard cash flow in favor of batch profits as an operating objective. This paper assumes that cash flow and its stability is important to commodity processors and examines methods for hedging cash flows under continuous processing. Its objectives are (a) to determine how standard he...

  6. Mass Retailers' Advertising Strategies Against Commodity Stores.

    OpenAIRE

    Fabian Bergès; Sylvette Monier-Dilhan

    2013-01-01

    A retailer has different opportunities to advertise in the media: emphasizing the store image or promoting specifically its private label (PL). In the first option, advertising benefits all products sold, whereas in the alternative, only store brands are concerned by image improvement. We analyze the retailer's advertising campaign strategies when its competitor's format is a small commodity store. PL quality is endogenous and chosen according to the competitor's product range. We show the re...

  7. LNG: a commodity in the making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chabrelie, M.F

    2006-07-01

    Although still far from being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realisation of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7%/year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  8. Food Safety. Commodity Science Point of View

    OpenAIRE

    Romuald I. Zalewski; Skawinska, Eulalia

    2006-01-01

    The paper addresses "food safety" and 'food quality' from the position of commodity and food science rather than economy. The various descriptions of both terms in literature are reviewed in connection with customer/supplier ability to evaluate food safety and quality by examination of various characteristics. Food safety has been described as opposite to food risk. Differences in perception of food risk by customer, producer/supplier and official agencies are discussed in this paper. The obj...

  9. Monitoring Particulate Matter with Commodity Hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holstius, David

    correlation with 1h data from a Federal Equivalent Method (FEM) beta-attenuation data, prototype instruments performed as well as commercially available equipment costing considerably more, and as well as another reference instrument under similar conditions at the same timescale (R2 = 0.6). Correlations were stronger when 24 h integrating times were used instead (R2 = 0.72). Chapter 4 replicates and extends the results of Chapter 3, showing that similar calibrations may be reasonably exchangeable between near-roadway and background monitoring sites. Chapter 4 also employs triplicate sensors to obtain data consistent with near-field (< 50 m) observations of plumes from a major highway (I-880). At 1 minute timescales, maximum PM2.5 concentrations on the order of 100 mug m-3 to 200 mug m-3 were observed, commensurate with the magnitude of plumes from wildfires on longer timescales, as well as the magnitude of plumes that might be expected near other major highways on the same timescale. Finally, Chapter 4 quantifies variance among calibration parameters for a large sample of the sensors, as well as the error associated with the remote transfer of calibrations between two sufficiently large sets (+/- 10 % for n = 12). These findings suggest that datasets generated with similar sensors could also improve upstream scientific understandings of fluxes resulting from indoor and outdoor emissions, atmospheric transformations, and transport, and may also facilitate timely and empirical verification of interventions to reduce emissions and exposures, in many important contexts (e.g., the provision of improved cookstoves; congestion pricing; mitigation policies attached to infill development; etc.). They also demonstrate that calibrations against continuous reference monitoring equipment could be remotely transferred, within practical tolerances, to reasonably sized and adequately resourced participatory monitoring campaigns, with minimal risk of disruption to existing monitoring

  10. ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING

    OpenAIRE

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from m...

  11. Accounting Aspects of Pricing and Transfer Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from m...

  12. Incorporating agroforestry approaches into commodity value chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Edward

    2011-08-01

    The productivity of tropical agricultural commodities is affected by the health of the ecosystem. Shade tolerant crops such as coffee and cocoa benefit from environmental services provided by forested landscapes, enabling landscape design that meets biodiversity conservation and economic needs. What can motivate farmers to apply and maintain such landscape approaches? Rather than rely on a proliferation of externally funded projects new opportunities are emerging through the international market that buys these commodities. As part of their growing commitment to sustainable supply chains, major companies are supporting agroforestry approaches and requiring producers and traders to demonstrate that the source of their commodities complies with a set of principles that conserves forested landscapes and improves local livelihoods. The paper presents examples of international companies that are moving in this direction, analyzes why and how they are doing it and discusses the impact that has been measured in coffee and cocoa communities in Latin America and Africa. It particularly considers the role of standards and certification systems as a driver of this commitment to promote profitable operations, environmental conservation and social responsibility throughout the coffee and cocoa value chains. Such approaches are already being taken to scale and are no longer operating only in small niches of the market but the paper also considers the limitations to growth in this market-based approach.

  13. Incorporating Agroforestry Approaches into Commodity Value Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Edward

    2011-08-01

    The productivity of tropical agricultural commodities is affected by the health of the ecosystem. Shade tolerant crops such as coffee and cocoa benefit from environmental services provided by forested landscapes, enabling landscape design that meets biodiversity conservation and economic needs. What can motivate farmers to apply and maintain such landscape approaches? Rather than rely on a proliferation of externally funded projects new opportunities are emerging through the international market that buys these commodities. As part of their growing commitment to sustainable supply chains, major companies are supporting agroforestry approaches and requiring producers and traders to demonstrate that the source of their commodities complies with a set of principles that conserves forested landscapes and improves local livelihoods. The paper presents examples of international companies that are moving in this direction, analyzes why and how they are doing it and discusses the impact that has been measured in coffee and cocoa communities in Latin America and Africa. It particularly considers the role of standards and certification systems as a driver of this commitment to promote profitable operations, environmental conservation and social responsibility throughout the coffee and cocoa value chains. Such approaches are already being taken to scale and are no longer operating only in small niches of the market but the paper also considers the limitations to growth in this market-based approach.

  14. Price strategy and pricing strategy: terms and content identification

    OpenAIRE

    Panasenko Tetyana

    2015-01-01

    The article is devoted to the terminology and content identification of seemingly identical concepts "price strategy" and "pricing strategy". The article contains evidence that the price strategy determines the direction, principles and procedure of implementing the company price policy and pricing strategy creates a set of rules and practical methods of price formation in accordance with the pricing strategy of the company.

  15. Modelling volatility recurrence intervals in the Chinese commodity futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Weijie; Wang, Zhengxin; Guo, Haiming

    2016-09-01

    The law of extreme event occurrence attracts much research. The volatility recurrence intervals of Chinese commodity futures market prices are studied: the results show that the probability distributions of the scaled volatility recurrence intervals have a uniform scaling curve for different thresholds q. So we can deduce the probability distribution of extreme events from normal events. The tail of a scaling curve can be well fitted by a Weibull form, which is significance-tested by KS measures. Both short-term and long-term memories are present in the recurrence intervals with different thresholds q, which denotes that the recurrence intervals can be predicted. In addition, similar to volatility, volatility recurrence intervals also have clustering features. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we artificially synthesise ARMA, GARCH-class sequences similar to the original data, and find out the reason behind the clustering. The larger the parameter d of the FIGARCH model, the stronger the clustering effect is. Finally, we use the Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Conditional Duration model (FIACD) to analyse the recurrence interval characteristics. The results indicated that the FIACD model may provide a method to analyse volatility recurrence intervals.

  16. Combining Low Price, Low Climate Impact and High Nutritional Value in One Shopping Basket through Diet Optimization by Linear Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corné van Dooren

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study aims to find diets with low price and low climate impact, yet fulfilling all nutritional requirements. Methods: Optimization by linear programming. The program constrains 33 nutrients to fulfill Dutch dietary requirements. In a second cycle, the upper boundary for climate impact through greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE is set to 1.6 kg carbon dioxide equivalents/day (CO2eq. In a third cycle, the costs are set on €2.50 as a constraint. The objective function of the optimization maximized the most consumed food products (n = 206 for male and female adults separately (age 31–50. Results: A diet of 63 popular and low priced basic products was found to deliver all required nutrients at an adequate level for both male and female adults. This plant-based, carbohydrate and fiber-rich diet consists mainly of wholegrain bread, potatoes, muesli, open-field vegetables and fruits. The climate impact of this diet is very low (1.59 kg CO2eq/day compared to the average Dutch diet. By constraining costs, a low carbon diet of €2.59/day is possible. Conclusions: A two-person diet consisting of 63 products and costing €37 per week can simultaneously be healthy and yet have half the average climate impact. Linear programming is a promising tool to combine health and sustainability on both societal and individual levels.

  17. Botswana's Beef Global Commodity Chain: Explaining the Resistance to Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    In an era of increasing global agricultural trade, many firms and farms seek to upgrade their agricultural commodity chains to become better integrated into global markets. Utilizing a global commodity chain (GCC) approach, this analysis unravels the challenges to and the potential consequences of upgrading Botswana's beef commodity chain.…

  18. 49 CFR 1248.1 - Freight commodity statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Freight commodity statistics. 1248.1 Section 1248... STATISTICS § 1248.1 Freight commodity statistics. All class I railroads, as described in § 1240.1 of this... statistics on the basis of the commodity codes named in § 1248.101. Carriers shall report quarterly on...

  19. 7 CFR 1421.110 - Commodity certificate exchanges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity certificate exchanges. 1421.110 Section... Loans § 1421.110 Commodity certificate exchanges. (a) For any outstanding marketing assistance loan for the 2008 and 2009 crop years, a producer may purchase a commodity certificate and exchange that...

  20. 7 CFR 1427.22 - Commodity certificate exchanges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity certificate exchanges. 1427.22 Section 1427... Deficiency Payments § 1427.22 Commodity certificate exchanges. (a) For any outstanding marketing assistance loan provided for upland cotton, a producer may purchase a commodity certificate and exchange that...