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Sample records for high commodity prices

  1. Understanding international commodity price fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arezki, Rabah; Loungani, Prakash; van der Ploeg, Rick; Venables, Anthony J.

    An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking-a shorthand for the

  2. Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2018-02-01

    The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

  3. Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Walter Labys

    2005-01-01

    Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended ...

  4. Biofuel and Food-Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Zilberman

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper summarizes key findings of alternative lines of research on the relationship between food and fuel markets, and identifies gaps between two bodies of literature: one that investigates the relationship between food and fuel prices, and another that investigates the impact of the introduction of biofuels on commodity-food prices. The former body of literature suggests that biofuel prices do not affect food-commodity prices, but the latter suggests it does. We try to explain this gap, and then show that although biofuel was an important contributor to the recent food-price inflation of 2001–2008, its effect on food-commodity prices declined after the recession of 2008/09. We also show that the introduction of cross-price elasticity is important when explaining soybean price, but less so when explaining corn prices.

  5. How market structure drives commodity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Wei, Junyi; Saad, David

    2017-11-01

    We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relationship between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios in a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.

  6. Energy prices and agricultural commodity prices: Testing correlation using copulas method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koirala, Krishna H.; Mishra, Ashok K.; D'Antoni, Jeremy M.; Mehlhorn, Joey E.

    2015-01-01

    The linear relationships between energy prices and prices for agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans may have been affected, over the last several years, by policy legislations in the farm sector, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the Renewable Fuel Standard Program for 2014. Using high-frequency data and newer methodology, this study investigates dependence between agricultural commodity futures prices and energy futures prices. Results reveal that agricultural commodity and energy future prices are highly correlated and exhibit positive and significant relationship. Findings from this study highlight that an increase in energy price increases the price of agricultural commodities. - Highlights: • Energy policy mandates production of 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol by 2015. • Energy-intensive agriculture has a link between energy sector and crop production costs. • We investigate correlation between energy prices and agricultural commodity prices. • Agricultural commodity and energy future prices are highly correlated. • Increase in energy price increases the price of agricultural commodity

  7. Price formation and transmission along the food commodity chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Blažková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on analysis of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain in the Czech Republic, with the distinction on wheat products with low value added (wheat flour, respectively high value added (wheat rolls. The degree of vertical price transmission is measured to identify potential market failures, because asymmetric price transmission can be the result of existence of market power within the food commodity chain. The data basis is made up from monthly prices on partial markets of the analyzed commodity chain published by Czech Statistical Office and Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic. The monitored time period is from January 2000 till October 2009. The analysis is based on calculation of the price transmission elasticity coefficient (evaluation of price transmission along the chain and the intensity of dependency of positive and negative inter-market price differences (evaluation whether positive or negative price changes are better transmitted among particular vertical markets. Time lag is tested as well. The assessment of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain confirmed the existence of market power especially on the retail stage and low impact of price changes of farm prices on final consumer food prices.

  8. Influence of rising commodity prices on energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, I.J.

    2009-04-01

    During the past few years we have first witnessed a rapid increase in the prices of commodities and then later, as a consequence of the economic downturn, an even more drastic drop. Simultaneously with the commodity price increase, an increase in the investment costs of power plants was experienced. The rise in material costs was often stated as one of the reasons for this increase. In this study the relationship between commodity costs and energy prices is studied. A bottom-up approach is used for estimating what kind of an impact increased commodity prices alone could be expected to have on the investment costs on the one hand, and how increased energy prices may affect commodity production costs on the other. The results indicate that although the commodity production costs usually have a fairly large energy component, even high increases in commodity prices, and therefore raw material costs of power plant investments, can not explain the recently experienced hikes in power plant investment costs; a doubling of the costs of the main raw material flows could explain an investment cost increase of some 5-10%, depending on the power plant type. This would seem to indicate that other contributing factors, such as bottlenecks in the production of power plant components, may play an important role in the recent investment cost increase

  9. Expected commodity returns and pricing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S.

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic models of commodity prices have evolved considerably in terms of their structure and the number and interpretation of the state variables that model the underlying risk. Using multiple factors, different specifications and modern estimation techniques, these models have gained wide acceptance because of their success in accurately fitting the observed commodity futures' term structures and their dynamics. It is not well emphasized however that these models, in addition to providing the risk neutral distribution of future spot prices, also provide their true distribution. While the parameters of the risk neutral distribution are estimated more precisely and are usually statistically significant, some of the parameters of the true distribution are typically measured with large errors and are statistically insignificant. In this paper we argue that to increase the reliability of commodity pricing models, and therefore their use by practitioners, some of their parameters — in particular the risk premium parameters — should be obtained from other sources and we show that this can be done without losing any precision in the pricing of futures contracts. We show how the risk premium parameters can be obtained from estimations of expected futures returns and provide alternative procedures for estimating these expected futures returns. - Highlights: • Simple methodology to improve the performance of commodity pricing models • New information about commodity futures expected return is added to the estimation. • No significant effect in pricing futures contracts is observed. • More reliable commodity pricing model's expected returns are obtained. • Methodology is open to any expected futures return model preferred by practitioner

  10. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  11. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M.K. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  12. Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... by considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the hedging-performance of the models. Third, we model the futures surface rather than the spot price process, and from the no-arbitrage relationship between spot and futures prices we...

  13. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  14. 22 CFR 201.63 - Maximum prices for commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... actually incurred in moving the commodities supplied from the point of purchase to a position alongside or... between those points. (g) Commodity price subject to escalation. If a purchase contract contains a price.... prevailing market price—U.S. source. The purchase price for a commodity, the source of which is the United...

  15. ASSESSING THE GOVERNANCE FOR COMMODITY PRICE STABILIZATION - A RETROSPECTIVE LOOK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pop Larisa Nicoleta

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The volatility of commodity prices has become once again a matter of profound and controversial debates for both political and academic spheres worldwide in the framework of the global economy severely distressed by the recent economic turbulences. Although commodity markets were already notorious for their price instability, the events the world economy experienced in the years 2000s offered new connotations to this phenomenon. In the first decade of this millennium, the commodity markets have struggled with high volatility, with prices reaching historical peaks just to crash dramatically some months later and very soon to restart their rise. The significant increase in volatility generated many debates about its triggering factors, the implications in terms of risk exposure of economic actors, but also the need for reconfiguring regulatory policy frameworks. The quest for the most appropriate means to deal with commodity price turbulences has known different stages over the years. Decision makers worldwide have sought alternatives, formulated and tested various mechanisms whose central aim was to mitigate price fluctuations. Governments formulate and implement consistent regulatory policies whose international coordination is a ‘sine qua non’ condition for stabilizing these markets. However, the turbulences on commodity markets often generate policy responses that sometimes exacerbate rather than mitigate the price instability. The purpose of this paper is to assess the subject of governance regarding commodity price stabilization, offering a retrospective look at the mechanisms implemented over the years, with a central focus on the International Commodity Agreements – instruments through which in the previous decades the producer and consumer governments worldwide pursued price stabilization for some key commodities like sugar, coffee, cocoa, tin and natural rubber. After analyzing the effectiveness of the International Agreements and

  16. Boom or bust : developing countries' rough ride on the commodity price rollercoaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, O.; Gibson, J.

    2006-10-01

    Current high commodity prices are driven by strong demand from the emerging economies of China and India in addition to high consumption in the United States. Many developing countries are experiencing massive windfall revenues from high commodity prices. However, commodity prices are highly volatile in the short term, and can vary as much as 50 per cent in a single year. While developed country producers are supported by subsidies and social safety nets, developing countries and smallholder producers feel the extent of commodity price volatility more directly. Many developing countries are becoming locked into the production and export of primary commodities whose volatile prices are declining over the long term, and over which they have very little control. Price volatility makes sound fiscal planning difficult for both countries and producers. Price booms and busts also drive social inequalities, livelihood inequalities, and corruption. Price swings can cause conflict over valuable land and resources, and does not create incentives for sound environmental stewardship. This paper described the impacts of commodity price volatility in developing countries with the aim of promoting discussion about what can be done to help stabilize revenues for countries as well as producers. Price trends and their importance were reviewed, and the theoretical benefits of liberalized commodity markets were examined. Previous attempts to stabilize commodity prices were reviewed. It was concluded that the best long-term solution to the commodity price problem is economic diversification. Recommendations for promoting economic diversification were provided. 43 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  17. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  18. Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cartas

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices. In 2012, the international commodity markets have seen declining prices, especially during the first half of the year, with some improvement mainly in the last quarter. On the whole, most of major commodity prices declined, following generally weaker demand and the uncertain global economic situation. The short term outlook shows broad declines of prices for all major commodity groups, including oil and excepting metal prices, which are expected to be sustained by the global economic recovery and increasing demand, mainly in China. This country represents a major player, with a great contribution to the movement of prices on most of international commodity markets, as she has a great role in the world consumption and trade of commodities, as well as in the world production of some of these goods, on the one hand, and enjoys huge financial resources, on the other.

  19. Increase of food commodities prices and their relationship with biofuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz-Alvarez, Marianela; Piloto-Rodríguez, Ramón

    2017-01-01

    Biofuels are without any doubt, an alternative to the actual energy matrix. In this work, through the analysis of the main influencing factors in the increase of food commodities prices, is demonstrated that this phenomena is not exclusive due to biofuels production. Comparing the food commodities prices with biofuels production and petroleum prices respectively, a stronger correlation between food and petroleum prices was observed, demonstrating the strong influence of the conventional energy market on agricultural products. (author)

  20. Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

  1. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  2. Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaklan, Aleksandar; Abrell, Jan; Neumann, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Situated at the intersection of the literatures on speculative storage and non-renewable commodity scarcity, this paper considers whether changes in persistence have occurred in long-run U.S. prices of the energy commodities crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. We allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence to avoid a change in the stochastic properties of prices being confounded by an unaccounted-for deterministic shift in the price series. We find that coal prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution and that oil prices change from stationarity to non-stationarity in the decade between the late 1960s to late 1970s. The result on gas prices is ambiguous. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for a possible structural shift when testing for breaks in persistence, while being robust to the exact date of the structural break. Based on our analysis we caution against viewing long-run energy commodity prices as being non-stationary and conclude in favor of modeling commodity market fundamentals as stationary, meaning that speculative storage will tend to have a dampening effect on prices. We also cannot reject that long-run prices of coal and, with some hesitation, gas follow a Hotelling-type rule. In contrast, we reject the Hotelling rule for oil prices since the late 1960s/early 1970s. - Highlights: • This paper contributes to the literatures on speculative storage and scarcity. • We test if long-run U.S. coal, oil and gas prices became non-stationary. • We pre-test for structural breaks when testing for changes in persistence. • Coal prices are found to be trend stationary, oil prices become non-stationary. • We caution against modeling commodity market fundamentals as non-stationary.

  3. Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trujillo Barrera, A.A.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Is the relationship between energy and agricultural commodities an important factor in the increasing price variability of food commodities? Findings from the literature appear to be mixed and highly influenced by the data frequency used in those analysis. A recurrent task in time series

  4. Statistical microeconomics and commodity prices: theory and empirical results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E

    2016-01-13

    A review is made of the statistical generalization of microeconomics by Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is given by the unequal time correlation function and is modelled by the Feynman path integral based on an action functional. The correlation functions of the model are defined using the path integral. The existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)) has been empirically ascertained in Baaquie et al. (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). The model's action functionals for different commodities has been empirically determined and calibrated using the unequal time correlation functions of the market commodity prices using a perturbation expansion (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are empirically studied and their auto-correlation for up to 300 days is described by the model to an accuracy of R(2)>0.90-using only six parameters. © 2015 The Author(s).

  5. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... expectations, one should mostly observe contemporaneous correlations, not one-directional cross-predictability from one variable toward the other. Using three different data sets and various econometric techniques, we do find the contemporaneous correlations as predicted by the financial asset view......-averaged prices in the commodity index data that they use (price averaging induces spurious autocorrelation and predictability) and to features in their test procedures....

  6. Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

  7. Analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena; Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda; Tito, Edison Americo Huarsaya

    2008-01-01

    The behavior of commodities prices is fundamental to real-asset investment decisions, hedging, and pricing financial derivatives. Schwartz and Smith [Schwartz, E.S., Smith, J.E. (2000). Short term-variations and long-term dynamics in commodity prices. Management Science, 46, 893-911.] proposed a two-factor model for describing the stochastic processes of commodity prices, in which the two factors are short-term variations and equilibrium prices. These are both unobserved state variables that are estimated using the Kalman filter. The estimation is based on the observation of future prices for different maturities. The authors have carried out this process without incorporating jumps in the short-term variation of prices. Here we aim to demonstrate that the inclusion of jumps better explains the behavior of oil prices, and in fact creates difficulties in the estimation of state variables. This is because the variables become non-Gaussian so the Kalman filter is not recommended. Another methodology, called the particle filter, is more suitable in this case, and we describe its application in this article

  8. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats’ Choices between Differently Priced Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers’ sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget

  9. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wingerden, Marijn; Marx, Christine; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget conditions

  10. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

    OpenAIRE

    Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2013-01-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise, consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis t...

  11. Market Structure and Price Transmission of Eggs Commodity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Aziz Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Purposes of this research are to determine some characteristics of distribution channel, market structure, and price maker transmission in purebred chicken egg commodity in Banyumas District, Central Java Province. Primary data applied on this research is from all channel distribution levels; from producers to final consumers. Meanwhile secondary data is collected from government official sources, such as BPS-Statistic of Banyumas Disrict, Banyumas Department of Industry, Trading and Cooperation, and previous researches which has been made by researcher team. Sample determining is directed by proportional random sampling methods. Some measurements are applied to this research, including to; Herfindahl Index (HI, Concentration Ratio (CF, and Minimum Efficiency Scale (MES to investigate market structure; and Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT to determine price transmission mechanism model. This research finds that (1 the distribution channel of egg commodity is spitted to different channel, the first channel: egg producer – retail traders – final consumers, and second channel: egg producers – whole seller – retail traders – final consumers; (2 market structure which is created to this farming specific commodity is perfect market; (3 price transmission mechanism analysis statistically shows that there is almost no existence of dominant power in price formation.

  12. Optimal Nonlinear Pricing, Bundling Commodities and Contingent Services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Podesta, Marion; Poudou, Jean-Christophe

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we propose to analyze optimal nonlinear pricing when a firm offers in a bundle a commodity and a contingent service. The paper studies a mechanism design where all private information can be captured in a single scalar variable in a monopoly context. We show that to propose the package for commodity and service is less costly for the consumer, the firm has lower consumers' rent than the situation where it sells their good and contingent service under an independent pricing strategy. In fact, the possibility to use price discrimination via the supply of package is dominated by the fact that it is costly for the consumer to sign two contracts. Bundling energy and a contingent service is a profitable strategy for a energetician monopoly practising optimal nonlinear tariff. We show that the rates of the energy and the contingent service depend to the optional character of the contingent service and depend to the degree of complementarity between commodities and services. (authors)

  13. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  14. 22 CFR 201.64 - Application of the price rules to commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... 201.64 Section 201.64 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES AND PROCEDURES... purchase price of a commodity exceeds the price in comparable export sales or in comparable domestic sales... the determination of any prevailing market price of any commodity or any prevailing price or maximum...

  15. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  16. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2015-01-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat “gas money” as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series. PMID:26937053

  17. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Justine S; Shapiro, Jesse M

    2013-11-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series.

  18. Agricultural Commodities and Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Their Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Zafeiriou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Within the last few decades, the extended use of biodiesel and bioethanol has established interlinkages between energy markets and agricultural commodity markets. The present work examines the bivariate relationships of crude oil–corn and crude oil–soybean futures prices with the assistance of the ARDL cointegration approach. Our findings confirm that crude oil prices affect the prices of agricultural products used in the production of biodiesel, as well as of ethanol, validating the interaction of energy and agricultural commodity markets. The practical value of the present work is that the findings provide policy makers with insight into the interlinkages between agricultural and energy markets to promote biodiesel or bioethanol by affecting crude oil prices. The novelty of the present work stands on the use of futures prices that incorporate all available information and thus are more appropriate to identify supply and demand shocks and price spillovers than real prices. Finally, the period of study includes extremely low, as well as extremely high, crude oil prices and the results illustrate that biofuels cannot be substituted for crude oil and protect economies from energy volatility.

  19. International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Ciccone, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast wit...

  20. On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Joets, Marc

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the price of oil and a large dataset of commodity prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel co-integration tests, our findings show that the WTI and commodity prices are not linked in the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we show that short-run relations exist, mainly from the price of crude oil to commodity prices. We thus implement a panel VAR estimation with an impulse response function analysis. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) fast co-movements are highlighted, while (ii) market efficiency is emphasized. (authors)

  1. The Impact of Trade Policies on Spiraling Prices in International Agricultural Commodity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Ghibuțiu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-2000s food prices have been on an upward trend. In the first months of 2011, agricultural commodity prices reached an all-time high, fuelling fears about the imminent outbreak of a new food crisis, similar to the 1973/74 and 2006/08 ones. Behind concerns about increased price levels and volatility in international agricultural commodity markets lie concerns about food security. Hence, the international community is now under pressure to urgently find solutions for tempering strong upward fluctuations in prices for many major food commodities. Trade policy changes are increasingly discussed as a major contributing factor to food price surges. This paper addresses some issues related to the recurrent global food crises from the perspective of trade policy, specifically export restrictions. After a brief review of the fundamental drivers of the upward trend in real food prices (rising global population and income, climate change, high oil prices, increasing cereal use for biofuel production, and financial speculation, it examines the upsurge in agricultural export restrictions over the recent years. Relying on WTO's trade policy monitoring exercise, it highlights typology, motivations and effects of the newly introduced export restrictions, and finds that a major factor behind their recent proliferation is the lack of effective and binding multilateral rules concerning these trade policy instruments. The paper argues that strenghtening and improving WTO's rules and disciplines is essential for mitigating increased price pressure and volatility as well as the associated food security risks. While the issue of export restrictions is currently the topic of discussions under the Doha Round, trade negotiations are in impasse since 2008. Hence, urgent and successful conclusion of the round would be an essential step. In the meanwhile, a closer regular monitoring of all forms of export restrictions would help to provide at least more

  2. Exchange Market Pressure, Stock Prices, and Commodity Prices East of the Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott W. Hegerty

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - This paper aims to examine connections between the exchange, equity, commodity and commodity markets of a set of Central and Eastern European (CEE economies using monthly time-series data. In particular, we examine whether stock - or commodity - price changes might put pressure on these currencies to depreciate, and whether these pressures are transmitted within the region or from larger neighbors. Design/methodology/approach - This paper creates monthly indices of Ex-change Market Pressure (EMP from 1998 to 2017 using a combination of currency depreciation, reserve losses, and changes in interest-rate differentials for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania. After examining these indices for evidence of currency 'crises', and their components for evidence of changes in currency policy, Vector Autoregressive (VAR methods such as Granger causality and impulse-response functions are used to examine connections between EMP, domestic and foreign stock returns, and changes in commodity prices in the first four countries listed. Findings - While EMP increased in 2008, and the degree of central banks' currency- -market interventions decreased afterward, this paper uncovers key differences among countries. In particular, the Czech Republic is relatively insulated from international transmissions, while Hungary is more susceptible to global spillovers and Poland is exposed to events originating elsewhere in the CEE region. Ukraine shows bidirectional causality between its EMP and stock indices, and finds that pressure on the hryvnia increases if commodity or oil prices decline. Research implications/limitations - This study adds to the relatively limited literature regarding this region, and highlights particular vulnerabilities for both individual countries and specific neighbors; further research is necessary to uncover the channels of transmission using economic modeling. Originality

  3. Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xolani Ndlovu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

  4. Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borychowski Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclusions to some extent is a synthesis of considerations and includes the authors’ opinions concerning determinants and an attempt to identify which ones were the most important in the growth of agricultural commodity prices. These increases in agricultural commodity prices resulted from many factors and it is very difficult to separate the individual impact of each of them, because they occurred in parallel. However, it is possible to indicate several main reasons for these price increases, which are: adverse changes in supply-demand relations in agricultural markets, increases in oil prices (and increases of the volatility of those prices, development of biofuel production from agricultural commodities (the first generation biofuels, dollar depreciation, an increase in operations of a speculative nature on commodity markets and improper economic policy that created an environment for the growth of prices of agricultural products.

  5. The Character of Price Transmission Within Milk Commodity Chain in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbora Dudová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on price transmission within milk commodity chain in the Czech Republic. The article distinct on milk products with low value added – cow milk/paper box milk and products with higher value added – cow milk/butter. Price transmission is measured by the coefficient of elasticity of the price transmission (EPT; price transfer is examined in demand as well as supply direction. Next part of the analysis measures price differences (by coefficient determination – R2 in supply direction. Last step in this analysis is the impact of time delay at the price transmission process (measured by R2. The price transmission is asymmetric in the supply direction on both parts of commodity chain (EPT = 0.29 and 0.62, in the demand direction is more symmetric (EPT = 0.31 and 1.02. The assumption of better transfer of positive price changes was confirmed. At the commodity chain of milk/dairy products the time delay is not so much important. With both tested commodity chains there was found higher power of downstream markets, proving demand driven behaviour of these commodity chains, and there was detected oligopsony market structure as well. The data represent monthly prices on both chosen vertical levels in the period of 1/2000–8/2013.

  6. International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

    2007-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  7. International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

    2009-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  8. Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

  9. Impacts of Retailers’ Pricing Strategies for Produce Commodities on Farmer Welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Chenguang; Sexton, Richard J.

    2009-01-01

    The typical model of retail pricing for produce products assumes retailers set price equal to the farm price plus a certain markup. However, observations from scanner data indicate a large degree of price dispersion in the grocery retailing market. In addition to markup pricing behavior, we document three alternative leading pricing patterns: fixed (constant) pricing, periodic sale, and high-low pricing. Retail price variations under these alternative pricing regimes in general have little co...

  10. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  11. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  12. Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

    2015-05-01

    Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

  13. Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Addison, Tony; Ghoshray, Atanu

    2014-01-01

    Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we define an auxiliary variable that can potentially capture the definition of a price shock that allows us to determine whether the response of per capita Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in sub-Sahara...

  14. Price development evaluation of chosen plant commodities in agra­rian market in the Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Rovný

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to evaluate the price development of the chosen commodities in plant production in Slovakia and to focus on the factors influencing the increase or decrease in the price of commodities on the domestic and foreign markets. In 2008 the prices of the products in a year–on–year plant production increased by 1.6 %. The price of the plant products, including fruits and ve­ge­tab­les recorded the biggest increase since January 2008 until October 2008. The biggest increase in prices was recorded in June (increase of 52.7%. The high prices of oil plants and legume were one of the causes in a year–on–year price increase (oil plants increase by 23.3% and legume −15.7%. Price development on the domestic market of cereals and oil plants was influenced in the first three terms by growing stock–exchange value and the high demand from the side of foreign buyers connected with the increasing production of biofuels. On the other hand, in the last term of the year 2008, there can be seen the rapid decrease of the prices of cereals and oil plants because of the high production and the development of the world prices. The prices of fruits, evaluated in 2004–2008, recorded the biggest increase in January and February 2008 (in January 2008 – increase by 22.1% and February 2008 – increase by 23.2%. Prices of vegetables slightly grew in the monitored period. The biggest increase was recorded in December 2006 and in January and February 2007 (more than 15%.

  15. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  16. Impacts of the Federal Energy Acts and Other Influences on Prices of Agricultural Commodities and Food

    OpenAIRE

    Ferris, John N.

    2013-01-01

    Most of the increase in ethanol production in the 2008-2012 period can be attributed to the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) and earlier federal energy legislation. The expansion in U.S. biofuel production, particularly ethanol, was the predominant cause of the elevated commodity prices. Other influences documented were a weak dollar, speculation and an increasingly inelastic commodity demand function. The supply function displayed more elasticity as crop farmers responded ...

  17. The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Algieri, Bernardina

    2014-01-01

    Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of the several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity prices. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor's (S and P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity is not. This would imply that biofuel policy should be carefully monitored in order to avoid excessive first-generation subsidization, which would trigger a fuel vs. food conflict. - Highlights: • The effects of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices are examined. • A GARCH methodology in univariate and multivariate settings is adopted. • The results show that a complex of drivers is relevant in explaining commodity futures returns. • Energy market returns play a significant role in pushing commodity returns. • The increase in monetary liquidity does not contribute to changes in futures returns on a daily basis

  18. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector...... price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining...... autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda – Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial...

  19. THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Lascsáková

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

  20. Application of Derivatives Market for Controlling Risks of Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasuolė Drazdauskienė

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The issue of raw milk procurement cost level and fluctuation which inhibits strengthening negotiating positions of dairy product fabricants and probability of them staying competitive in the European Union, is examined. Scientific literature that analyzes risks of staple prices is overviewed in the article. The paper provides statistical data representing the situation of Lithuania in contrast with European Union rates. Global usage of prospective transactions and their possible influence on price regulation are analyzed. After examining statistical data and academic literature, conclusions are provided.

  1. Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US

    OpenAIRE

    Verheyen, Florian

    2010-01-01

    The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causality tests and SVAR models to US data. The results corroborate the notion that there was a strong link be...

  2. International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Bruckner; Antonio Ciccone

    2010-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  3. Price transmission between biofuels, fuels and food commodities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Janda, K.; Zilberman, D.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 3 (2014), s. 362-373 ISSN 1932-104X Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : biofuels * price transmission * non-linearity * elasticity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.214, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433525.pdf

  4. Military and Private Sector Commodity Outlets: A Retail Price Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-02-01

    89 6. Del Monte Bananas, 1 lb. .34 .49 7. Sunkist Oranges , 1 lb. .37 .56 8. Minute Maid Frozen Lemon Juice, 6 fl. oz. .25 .41 9. Red Delicious Apples...continued Prices Iter Commissary Safeway 47. Marlboro Cigarettes, Carton 5.28 7.99 48. Carnation Evaporated Milk, Canned, 13 fl. oz. .46 .47 49. Gerber...1 lb. .90 1.29 80. Jimmy Dean Pork Sausage, 16 oz. 1.53 2.49 81. Minute Maid Frozen Orange Juice, 12 f!. oz. .97 .99 TOTAL $114.70 $152.23 1. Sale

  5. Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns : Time-Series Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of uncondi...

  6. The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chuanguo; Chen, Xiaoqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China. - Highlights: • We investigated the impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. • The aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities. • The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. • The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices

  7. Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

  8. Natural gas : a highly lucrative commodity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2000-01-01

    Exploration and production of natural gas has become highly profitable as natural gas is becoming a leading future commodity. With new technology, high demand and environmental benefits, natural gas is the preferred choice over petroleum as the leading source of energy to heat home and businesses. Canada is the world's third largest producer of natural gas with its Sable Offshore Energy Project being the fourth largest producing natural gas basin in North America. The basin will produce high quality sweet natural gas from 28 production wells over the course of the next 20 to 25 years. The gas will be transported to markets through Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and into the Northeastern United States via the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline. The 1051 kilometer underground gas pipeline is currently running laterals to Halifax, Nova Scotia and Saint John, New Brunswick. Market studies are being conducted to determine if additional lines are needed to serve Cape Breton, Prince Edward Island and northern New Brunswick. A recent survey identified the following 5 reasons to convert to natural gas: (1) it is safe, (2) it is reliable, (3) it is easy to use, (4) it is cleaner burning and environmentally friendly compared to other energy sources, and (5) it saves the consumer money

  9. On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelstein, Paul S.

    Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures

  10. What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Földvári, P.; van Leeuwen, B.

    2011-01-01

    The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price

  11. International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George A. Thopila

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

  12. High bandwidth concurrent processing on commodity platforms

    CERN Document Server

    Boosten, M; Van der Stok, P D V

    1999-01-01

    The I/O bandwidth and real-time processing power required for high- energy physics experiments is increasing rapidly over time. The current requirements can only be met by using large-scale concurrent processing. We are investigating the use of a large PC cluster interconnected by Fast and Gigabit Ethernet to meet the performance requirements of the ATLAS second level trigger. This architecture is attractive because of its performance and competitive pricing. A major problem is obtaining frequent high-bandwidth I/O without sacrificing the CPU's processing power. We present a tight integration of a user-level scheduler and a zero-copy communication layer. This system closely approaches the performance of the underlying hardware in terms of both CPU power and I/O capacity. (0 refs).

  13. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  14. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  15. Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

  16. Predicting prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand using combined approach emphasizing on data pre-processing technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thoranin Sujjaviriyasup

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this research, a combined approach emphasizing on data pre-processing technique is developed to forecast prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand. The future prices play significant role in decision making to cultivate crops in next year. The proposed model takes ability of MODWT to decompose original time series data into more stable and explicit subseries, and SVR model to formulate complex function of forecasting. The experimental results indicated that the proposed model outperforms traditional forecasting models based on MAE and MAPE criteria. Furthermore, the proposed model reveals that it is able to be a useful forecasting tool for prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand

  17. Analysis of consumer behaviour when purchasing selected commodity groups concerning the effect of price, habit, discount and product characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitka Poměnková

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is consumer behaviour analysis when purchasing selected commodity groups concerning the effect of price, habit, discount and product characteristics. Analysis proceed from the Czech household marketing research, where 726 households were electronically questioned. As mentioned above, selected factors for the analysis were habit, products‘ characteristics, price and discount actions.Primary aim is to measure the correspondence of selected factors influence on consumer behaviour during purchase decision making process of selected commodity groups. Interpretation is based on two-tier evaluation. First level represents commodity groups distinction by the character of goods and subsequent evaluation of goods characteristics correspondence in accordance with each influencing factor. Second one represents behaviour of commodity group in cross-section of selected factors. For consumer behaviour analysis chi-square test was used. Before its application the data set (responses was divided according to the ten-point scale into three interval’ groups.

  18. Prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels in long-run relationships: a comparative study for the USA and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Tanja; Bentzen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Time-series data for the USA and Europe representing prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels are used for a comparative analysis of long-run price relationships. There is some evidence for cointegration between ethanol and gasoline, especially for the USA, and in the case...... of biodiesel, stronger evidence of cointegration between biodiesel, diesel and soya oil for both the USA and Europe. Finally, biofuel prices do not seem to influence agricultural commodity prices or fossil fuel prices....

  19. Cross-commodity hedges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simard, T.

    1999-01-01

    Energy risk management is the principal topic of this paper. Four major subjects are examined: cross-commodity trading objectives (reduce the risk of an underlying exposure in another commodity); portfolio risk reduction (an Alberta power distributor exposed to high pool prices could protect against high pool prices through a fixed price purchase of Alberta natural gas); tailoring pricing to customer needs (sell power to the gas producer indexed to the price of gas); and (4) reducing insurance costs (rather than purchasing downside protection (puts) individually against oil and gas prices, a producer could purchase a basket option). Since the key issue in cross-commodity transactions is the estimation of correlation, it is important to be prepared to alter correlation assumptions. 1 tab., 2 figs

  20. An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2009-01-01

    Many industries are exposed to weather risk. Weather derivatives can play a key role in hedging and diversifying such risk because the uncertainty in a company's profit function can be correlated to weather condition which affects diverse industry sectors differently. Unfortunately the weather derivatives market is a classical example of an incomplete market that is not amenable to standard methodologies used for derivative pricing in complete markets. In this paper, we develop an equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting. The model is constructed in the context of a stylized economy where agents optimize their hedging portfolios which include weather derivatives that are issued in a fixed quantity by a financial underwriter. The supply and demand resulting from hedging activities and the supply by the underwriter are combined in an equilibrium pricing model under the assumption that all agents maximize some risk averse utility function. We analyze the gains due to the inclusion of weather derivatives in hedging portfolios and examine the components of that gain attributable to hedging and to risk sharing. (author)

  1. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  2. Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Ferhat I.

    My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

  3. THE IMPACT OF THE RECENT FEDERAL RESERVE LARGESCALE ASSET PURCHASES ON THE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES: A HISTORICAL DECOMPOSITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed H. Saghaian

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the effects of the recent Federal Reserve’s purchases of longterm assets on prices of agricultural commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases began at the end of 2008, after the Great Recession, and the second purchases began in November of 2010. The commodities included in this analysis are meats (beef, pork, and broilers, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice, and softs (sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton. Using historical decompositions, we find significant increases in the nominal agricultural prices of ten out of 12 agricultural commodities under investigation from the second large-scale asset purchases (in 2010 but the first set large-scale asset purchases had only two positive effects.

  4. An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble : The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, Ewout; Williamson, Jeffrey; Woltjer, Pieter

    2015-01-01

    This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net

  5. Linkages among commodity futures prices in the recent financial crisis: An application of cointegration tests with a structural break

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoichi Tsuchiya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among non-agricultural commodity futures prices when a structural break is taken into account, there is no such relationship without allowing for a structural break. We also show that these break points, in fact, occur a few months before the recent global financial crisis. Although the previous literature broadly casts doubt on such price co-movements, our results confirm that market performance improved during the sample period.

  6. A sensitivity analysis of process design parameters, commodity prices and robustness on the economics of odour abatement technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, José M; Kraakman, N J R Bart; Lebrero, Raquel; Muñoz, Raúl

    2012-01-01

    The sensitivity of the economics of the five most commonly applied odour abatement technologies (biofiltration, biotrickling filtration, activated carbon adsorption, chemical scrubbing and a hybrid technology consisting of a biotrickling filter coupled with carbon adsorption) towards design parameters and commodity prices was evaluated. Besides, the influence of the geographical location on the Net Present Value calculated for a 20 years lifespan (NPV20) of each technology and its robustness towards typical process fluctuations and operational upsets were also assessed. This comparative analysis showed that biological techniques present lower operating costs (up to 6 times) and lower sensitivity than their physical/chemical counterparts, with the packing material being the key parameter affecting their operating costs (40-50% of the total operating costs). The use of recycled or partially treated water (e.g. secondary effluent in wastewater treatment plants) offers an opportunity to significantly reduce costs in biological techniques. Physical/chemical technologies present a high sensitivity towards H2S concentration, which is an important drawback due to the fluctuating nature of malodorous emissions. The geographical analysis evidenced high NPV20 variations around the world for all the technologies evaluated, but despite the differences in wage and price levels, biofiltration and biotrickling filtration are always the most cost-efficient alternatives (NPV20). When, in an economical evaluation, the robustness is as relevant as the overall costs (NPV20), the hybrid technology would move up next to BTF as the most preferred technologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Sanidas, Elias

    2005-01-01

    The Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overw...

  8. If the Song has No Price, is it Still a Commodity? : Rethinking the Commodification of Digital Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmus Fleischer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In music streaming services like Spotify, discrete pieces of music no longer has a price, as has traditionally been the case in music retailing, both analog and digital. This article discusses the theoretical and practical implications of this shift towards subscriptions, starting from a critical review of recent literature dealing with the commodification of music. The findings have a relevance that is not limited to music or digital media, but also apply more broadly on the study of commodification. At the theoretical level, the article compares two ways of defining the commodity, one structural (Marx, one situational (Appadurai, Kopytoff, arguing for the necessity of a theory that can distinguish commodities from all that which is not (yet commodified. This is demonstrated by taking Spotify as a case, arguing that it does not sell millions of different commodities to its users, but only one: the subscription itself. This has broad economic and cultural implications, of which four are highlighted: (1 The user of Spotify has no economic incentive to limit music listening, because the price of a subscription is the same regardless of the quantity of music consumed. (2 For the same reason, Spotify as a company cannot raise its revenues by making existing customers consume more of the product, but only by raising the number of subscribers, or by raising the price of a subscription. (3 Within platforms like Spotify, it is not possible to use differential pricing of musical recordings, as has traditionally been the case in music retail. Accordingly, record companies or independent artists hence can no longer compete for listeners by offering their music at a discount. (4 Within the circuit of capital. Spotify may actually be better understood as a commodity producer than as a distributor, implying a less symbiotic relationship to the recorded music industry.

  9. Analysis of the development of export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Palát

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the description of average level, variability and developmental trends the export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic with differentiation according to particular countries within the defined reference period 1993–2002. Thre is also presented the short-time point and interval extrapolation prediction of studied events. Methods of regression and correlation analysis and developmental trends were applied for the mathematical-statistical analysis.

  10. Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage Between Energy and Agricultural Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas W. Hertel; Jayson Beckman

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low – even negative correlation. However, the recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. The amount of corn utilized for ethanol production in the US has increased from 5% in 2001 to over one-third by the end of the decade. This increase has drawn corn previously sold to other uses (exports, food, feed), as well as acreage devoted to other crops (...

  11. The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks in a Major Producing Economy. The Case of Copper and Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Pedersen

    2015-01-01

    The present study analyzes how copper price shocks affect macroeconomic variables in Chile, which is the largest producer in the world of this commodity. It is taken into account that shocks with different sources may have different impacts and a separation is made between supply, demand, and specific copper demand shocks. The empirical analysis is based on a structural VAR model, where shocks are identified by sign restrictions, i.e. restrictions are imposed on impulse-response functions. In...

  12. On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

    2013-01-01

    A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given. - Highlights: • Theoretical model to forecast marginal costs of non-renewable resources. • Tracks the consumption and costs of non-renewable resources. • For use in economic or technology models

  13. Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Revoredo-Giha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. The paper analyses the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling and the Chicago Board of Trade’s wheat contract as a comparison. Although the main purpose of the paper is to analyse whether futures markets are still useful for hedging (considering the demands from different market participants, implicitly this can be seen as testing whether the increasing presence of speculation has made futures markets divorced from physical markets. The results indicate that hedging with futures markets is still a viable alternative for dealing with price risk. This is particularly true in short period hedges (e.g. merchants and processors, where the basis seems to have been affected by the observed price instability.

  14. Potential of commodity chemicals to become bio-based according to maximum yields and petrochemical prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straathof, Adrie J.J.; Bampouli, A.

    2017-01-01

    Carbohydrates are the prevailing biomass components available for bio-based production. The most direct way to convert carbohydrates into commodity chemicals is by one-step conversion at maximum theoretical yield, such as by anaerobic fermentation without side product formation. Considering these

  15. Land use changes after the period commodities rising price in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Celestino Pires Silveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: At the end of the 20th and early 21st century, agricultural systems incorporated definitively a new mission: to generate goods for a world population that continues to grow and whose way of life demand food with low environmental impact. Soybean is the main raw material for the production of biodiesel in Brazil, accountably responsible for 82.4% of the total produced between 2006 and 2013. The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, which is formed by the Pampa and the Atlantic forest biomes, was responsible for 35.7% of the country's biodiesel production in the referred period. The aim of this paper was to verify the impact of the increased area of soybean cultivation in land use in Rio Grande do Sul State, in the period between 1990 and 2015, considering separately its two biomes (Pampa and Atlantic Forest original areas, using both census dataset and satellite images. We used the period from 1990 to 2000 as before commodity rising price (BCRP and the period from 2000 to 2013 as commodity rising price (CRP. The 505,162 ha from Atlantic Forest biome and 1,192,115ha from Pampa biome were added to soybean production in the CRP period. In the Atlantic Forest, this enlargement occurred in the border of the main production area, while in Pampa biome conversion of natural grassland to crop land was the main reason for the large increment in the cultivated area.

  16. 7 CFR 5.6 - Revision of the parity price of a commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... continuing changes in demand and supply conditions which are reflected in market prices. Accordingly, only in... Administrative Law Judges or such other employee of the Department as the Secretary may designate for the purpose...

  17. Are high oil prices a threat for the price stability?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mollerus, A.

    2000-01-01

    The high price for oil and the decreased value of the Euro increase the risks for the stability of prices. Still, the prospects for inflation are favorable for the Euro zone. Less favorable are the consequences for the Netherlands, while the inflation difference with the Euro zone appears to become bigger, in particular as a result of the new Tax regulations in the Netherlands

  18. Preços de commodities e nível de atividade em uma pequena economia aberta: evidências empíricas para o estado do Espírito Santo Commodity prices and activity level in a small open economy: empirical evidence for the State of Espírito Santo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães

    2011-12-01

    's economy compared to the national economy and other Brazilian states will also be measured. The results obtained reveal five distinct empirical patterns: (i given the state's high degree of openness, the impacts of commodity price fluctuations tend to be stronger when compared to Brazil and other Brazilian States; (ii Granger-causality test results show that commodity prices precede output levels both in the case of the State and the country; (iii a similar result occurs when a broad set of economic variables related to the State of Espírito Santo are considered; (iv a positive shock to commodity prices causes output to initially rise , followed by a contraction, with this variable displaying a permanently higher level in the long run; (v variance decomposition results show that, on average, the quantitative impacts of commodity price shocks are larger in the case of the State than the country. The results obtained are robust with regards to several specification issues, such as different stationary transformations of data, as well as distinct number of lags employed in Granger-causality tests. These results are important in the sense of providing a better understanding of the effects of commodity price variations on a small, open economy, as seems to be the case for the State of Espírito Santo.

  19. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

    straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration......In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...

  20. Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Koc, Veli; Sapio, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive strategies. This paper examines the prices submitted to the British wholesale electricity market by four coal-fired plants, separately owned, approximately of the same age, size and efficiency, and located in the same transmission network zone. Due to the repetitive nature of the spot market, one would expect convergence in strategies. Yet, we find evidence of persistent price dispersion and heterogeneous strategies. We consider several propositions for these effects including market power, company size, forward commitments, vertical integration and the management of interrelated assets. - Highlights: • Time series models of offer prices from 4 companies, UK electricity spot market • Focus on coal-fired plants of similar size, efficiency, age, same network zone • Low, less volatile offers by small, not vertically integrated, only-coal company • Operational risks of nuclear plants in a portfolio imply finer tracking of PX prices • Market leadership from private information on the Anglo-French interconnector flows

  1. High prices on electric power now again?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard

    2003-01-01

    Deregulation of the electric power market has yielded low prices for the consumers throughout the 1990s. Consumption has now increased considerably, but little new production has been added. This results in high prices in dry years, but to understand this one must understand price formation in the Nordic spot market. The high prices are a powerful signal to the consumers to reduce consumption, but they are also a signal to the producers to seize any opportunity to increase production. However, the construction of new dams etc. stirs up the environmentalists. Ordinary consumers may protect themselves against high prices by signing fixed-price contracts. For those who can tolerate price fluctuations, spot prices are a better alternative than the standard contract with variable price

  2. Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanachote Boonvorachote

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

  3. Managing commodity risks in highway contracts : quantifying premiums, accounting for correlations among risk factors, and designing optimal price-adjustment contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    It is a well-known fact that macro-economic conditions, such as prices of commodities (e.g. oil, : cement and steel) affect the cost of construction projects. In a volatile market environment, highway : agencies often pass such risk to contractors us...

  4. An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble. The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885. NBER Working Paper 21213

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, E.H.P.; Williamson, J.G.; Woltjer, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net

  5. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an

  6. Combining high productivity with high performance on commodity hardware

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhede, Kenneth

    -like compiler for translating CIL bytecode on the CELL-BE. I then introduce a bytecode converter that transforms simple loops in Java bytecode to GPGPU capable code. I then introduce the numeric library for the Common Intermediate Language, NumCIL. I can then utilizing the vector programming model from Num......CIL and map this to the Bohrium framework. The result is a complete system that gives the user a choice of high-level languages with no explicit parallelism, yet seamlessly performs efficient execution on a number of hardware setups....

  7. Approaches for Making High Performance Polymer Materials from Commodity Polymers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Xi

    2004-01-01

    A brief surrey of ongoing research work done for improving and enhancing the properties of commodity polymers by the author and author's colleagues is given in this paper. A series of high performance polymers and polymer nanomaterials were successfully prepared through irradiation and stress-induced reactions of polymers and hydrogen bonding. The methods proposed are viable, easy in operation, clean and efficient.1. The effect of irradiation source (UV light, electron beam, γ -ray and microwave), irradiation dose, irradiation time and atmosphere etc. on molecular structure of polyolefine during irradiation was studied. The basic rules of dominating oxidation, degradation and cross-linking reactions were mastered. Under the controlled conditions, cross-linking reactions are prevented, some oxygen containing groups are introduced on the molecular chain of polyolefine to facilitate the interface compatibility of their blends. A series of high performance polymer materials: u-HDPE/PA6,u-HDPE/CaCO3, u-iPP/STC, γ-HDPE/STC, γ-LLDPE/ATH, e-HDPE, e-LLDPE and m-HDPEfilled system were prepared (u- ultraviolet light irradiated, γ- γ-ray irradiated, e- electron beam irradiated, m- microwave irradiated)2. The effect of ultrasonic irradiation, jet and pan-milling on structure and changes in properties of polymers were studied. Imposition of critical stress on polymer chain can cause the scission of bonds to form macroradicals. The macroradicals formed in this way may recombine or react with monomer or other radicals to form linear, branched or cross-linked polymers or copolymers. About 20 kinds of block/graft copolymers have been synthesized from polymer-polymer or polymer-monomer through ultrasonic irradiation.Through jet-milling, the molecular weight of PVC is decreased somewhat, the intensity of its crystalline absorption bonds becomes indistinct. The processability, the yield strength, strength at break and elongation at break of PVC get increased quite a lot after

  8. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  9. Western Canada: high prices, high activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savidant, S

    2000-01-01

    The forces responsible for the high drilling and exploration activity in Western Canada (recent high prices, excess pipeline capacity, and the promise of as yet undiscovered natural gas resources) are discussed. Supply and demand signposts, among them weather impacts, political response by governments, the high demand for rigs and services, the intense competition for land, the scarcity of qualified human resources, are reviewed/. The geological potential of Western Canada, the implications of falling average pool sizes, the industry's ability to catch up to increasing declines, are explored. The disappearance of easy large discoveries, rising development costs involved in smaller, more complex hence more expensive pools are assessed and the Canadian equity and capital markets are reviewed. The predicted likely outcome of all the above factors is fewer players, increasing expectation of higher returns, and more discipline among the remaining players

  10. Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zant, W.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates a hypothetical hedging scheme in a domestic commodity market under which a commodity board offers a forward contract to domestic producers and local traders and covers its commitments on an international futures exchange. It is aimed to quantify welfare gains to agents in the

  11. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): the natural gas becoming a world commodity and creating international price references; GNL (Gas Natural Liquefeito): o gas natural se tornando uma commodity mundial e criando referencias de preco internacionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demori, Marcio Bastos [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Comercializacao de Gas e GNL; Santos, Edmilson Moutinho dos [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia. Programa Interunidades de Pos-Graduacao em Energia (PIPGE)

    2004-07-01

    The transportation of large quantities of natural gas through long distances has been done more frequently by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The increase of natural gas demand and the distance of major reserves, allied to technological improvements and cost reduction through LNG supply chain, have triggered the expressive increase of LNG world market This paper tries to evaluate the influence that LNG should cause on natural gas world market dynamic, analyzing the tendency of gas to become a world commodity, creating international price references, like oil and its derivates. For this, are shown data as natural gas world reserves, the participation of LNG in natural gas world market and their increase. Furthermore, will be analyzed the interaction between major natural gas reserves and their access to major markets, still considering scheduled LNG projects, the following impacts from their implementation and price arbitrage that should be provoked on natural gas markets. (author)

  12. Logistics: Price Rises Incurred by High Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai Zhihui

    2011-01-01

    @@ "When the oil price grows by 100%, the logistic indus-try will see a price growth of 40%, while the logistics in-dustry a price rise of 35%, which means every price increase of 5% in the oil price will bring along that of 2% in this industry." said Liu Zongsheng, General Manager of Itochu Logistics Co., Ltd., on the seminar "Focusing on the eco-nomic consequences of raising oil price, interest rate and deposit reserve ratio", which was held recently.

  13. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  14. Uranium prices approaching a 7 year high

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    This paper provides a market overview of the uranium market. The spot market activity totaled approximately 1.1 million lbs of U3O8 and equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range jumped from a high last month of $12.25 to a low this month of $12.45 There was a more moderate increase in the unrestricted range with this month's low end rising to last month's high of $10.15. Conversion prices remained steady and the lower end of the SWU range rose slightly to $92

  15. Financialization of commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Falkowski

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The basic theory of price formation tells us how the price of a particular asset will change based on the adjustment to its supply and demand. However, values of assets are also determined by other business fundamentals, company’s and world events, human psychology, and investors’ belief about the possible future profit. In recent history that lead to an increase of individual and institutional investors’ interest in allocating their resources in commodity markets. With a large inflow of capital commodities’ prices started to rise making them attractive components to effective investment portfolios. The presented paper addresses the issue of so called commodities ‘financialization’ process. It looks at the main factors standing behind commodities’ price movements and to what extent financial market participants contributed to commodities price volatility in recent years. Based on the data examined it distinguishes the involvement of both commercial and non-commercial traders in short and long term periods of time. As well as explaining the impact of growing investors’ interest in commodity markets it defines other market forces - like currency appreciations and emerging markets - as being part of increased volatility in raw and soft commodity markets. Along with market examination the paper focuses on possible future outcomes in attempts to regulate commodities derivatives markets and potential effects of those efforts.

  16. Research on the Pricing of Bundling Information Commodity%信息产品的捆绑定价问题研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛彦妮; 王刊良; 王龙伟

    2003-01-01

    This article studies the characteristics of low marginal cost of information commodity and points out that bundling information commodity is surprisingly profitable. After an analysis of the three factors affecting the sales income of bundling information commodity, that is, marginal cost, distribution of consumer' s valuation of bundling commodity and bundling size, a marketing strategy for bundling information commodity is proposed.

  17. Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  18. Comparing branch-and-price algorithms for the Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette; Petersen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    -Protocol Label Switching. The problem has previously been solved to optimality through branch-and-price. In this paper we propose two exact solution methods both based on an alternative decomposition. The two methods differ in their branching strategy. The first method, which branches on forbidden edge sequences...

  19. An Economic Rationale for the West African Scramble? The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1835-1885

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, Ewout; Williamson, Jeffrey; Woltjer, Pieter

    2018-01-01

    We use a new trade dataset showing that nineteenth century Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a terms of trade boom comparable to other parts of the ‘global periphery’. A sharp rise in export prices in the five decades before the scramble (1835-1885) was followed by an equally impressive decline during

  20. COMMODITY MARKET REGULATION: EXPORTING COUNTRIES VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Souza, Leonardo Silveira

    2012-01-01

    The high in commodity prices in the international market in the last decade, tensions escalated between exporting and importing commodities countries, the extent of having their demands and pressures discussed in the main international organizations, especially in the G20. As altas nas cotações das commodities no mercado internacional na última década acirraram as tensões entre países exportadores e importadores de commodities, a ponto de terem suas reivindicações e pressões debatidas no...

  1. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  2. Forecasting short-run crude oil price using high- and low-inventory variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye, Michael; Zyren, John; Shore, Joanne

    2006-01-01

    Since inventories have a lower bound or a minimum operating level, economic literature suggests a nonlinear relationship between inventory level and commodity prices. This was found to be the case in the short-run crude oil market. In order to explore this inventory-price relationship, two nonlinear inventory variables are defined and derived from the monthly normal level and relative level of OECD crude oil inventories from post 1991 Gulf War to October 2003: one for the low inventory state and another for the high inventory state of the crude oil market. Incorporation of low- and high-inventory variables in a single equation model to forecast short-run WTI crude oil prices enhances the model fit and forecast ability

  3. Pricing Policy and Strategies for Consumer High-Tech Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovleac, L.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the complex process of price setting for consumer high-tech products. These prices are highly influenced by some external factors from the economic and social environment. The main objective of this paper is to establish the most effective pricing policies and strategies used by high-tech companies of various sizes. Decisions about price fixing for consumer high-technology products are largely influenced by consumer behaviour, too.

  4. An Economic Rationale for the West African Scramble? The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1835-1885

    OpenAIRE

    Frankema, E.H.P.; Williamson, J.G.; Woltjer, P.J.

    2018-01-01

    We use a new trade dataset showing that nineteenth century Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a terms of trade boom comparable to other parts of the ‘global periphery’. A sharp rise in export prices in the five decades before the scramble (1835-1885) was followed by an equally impressive decline during the colonial era. This study revises the view that the scramble for West Africa occurred when its major export markets were in decline and argues that the larger weight of West Africa in French imp...

  5. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  6. East African governments' responses to high cereal prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, G.W.; Roza, P.; Berkum, van S.

    2009-01-01

    This study analyses the responses of governments in four East African countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia) with respect to price formation and price transmission in the cereal sector. All four countries were confronted with high cereal prices in 2008. Government policies applied largely

  7. The impact of high oil prices on natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koevoet, H.

    2003-01-01

    The principle of gas-to-oil (oil prices determine the price of natural gas) in the Netherlands and several other developments elsewhere (war in Iraq and a cold winter in the USA) has caused high natural gas prices. The question is whether the liberalization of the energy market can change this principle [nl

  8. High oil prices are here to stay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toennesen, Bjoern Inge

    2004-01-01

    The presentation discusses the development in the OPEC countries with emphasis on oil price fluctuation, spare production capacity and OPEC control. The capacity expansion in non-OPEC countries and the global demand development are also surveyed. (tk)

  9. Outlook '98 - Commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simard, T.

    1998-01-01

    Canadian oil and natural gas producers'' participation in commodity and foreign exchange markets to alter the pricing characteristics of their commodity portfolios was reviewed. It was concluded that through the various risk management structures available from financial and physical market participants, Canadian oil and gas producers retain the ongoing ability to design, pro-actively, their desired exposure to oil and gas prices. Various industry-wide re-examination of risk management programs have taken place during the past two years. Based on these studies, the industry anticipates material volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil and Alberta natural gas prices throughout 1998. Furthermore, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the price differentials between WTI crude and Canadian oil streams, and between Alberta gas prices and other North American regional gas markets. Against this background of uncertainty, it is reasonable to predict that companies will use risk management strategies in an effort to outperform industry average prices, thereby ensuring that pro-active risk management activity will continue throughout 1998

  10. Viewpoint On the Climate Change Effects of High Oil Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielle, M.; Viguier, L.

    2005-11-01

    Some commentators claim that the oil market has achieved within a few months what international bureaucrats have struggled to obtain in a decade of international climate negotiations. The fallacy of the oil price argument is that substitutions and income effects that would result from higher oil prices are not considered. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that high oil prices cannot serve as substitutes for effective climate policies.

  11. Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Escalante

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

  12. Energy versus economic effectiveness in CHP (combined heat and power) applications: Investigation on the critical role of commodities price, taxation and power grid mix efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Rossi, Mosè

    2016-01-01

    Starting from PES (primary energy saving) and CSR (cost saving ratio) definitions the work pinpoints a “grey area” in which CHP (combined heat and power – cogeneration) units can operate with profit and negative PES. In this case, CHP can be profitably operated with lower efficiency with respect to separate production of electrical and thermal energy. The work defines the R-index as the ratio between the cost of fuel and electricity. The optimal value of R-index for which CHP units operate with both environmental benefit (PES > 0) and economic profitability (CSR > 0) is the reference value of electrical efficiency, η_e_l_-_r_e_f, of separate production (national power grid mix). As a consequence, optimal R-index varies from Country to Country. The work demonstrates that the value of R corresponds to the minimum value of electrical efficiency for which any power generator operates with profit. The paper demonstrates that, with regard to the profitability of cogeneration, the ratio between the cost of commodities is more important than their absolute value so that different taxation of each commodity can be a good leverage for energy policy makers to promote high efficiency cogeneration, even in the absence of an incentive mechanism. The final part of the study presents an analysis on micro-CHP technologies payback times for different European Countries. - Highlights: • Investigation of the grey area where CHP profitably operates also with negative PES. • Study starts from definition of primary energy saving PES and cost saving ratio CSR. • Definition of the R-index as the ratio between the cost of fuel and electricity. • The optimal value of R for which the “grey area” disappears is R = η_e_l_-_r_e_f. • R is also the value of η_e_l for which any electric generator profitably operates.

  13. Demand Uncertainty and Price Stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    E. Kwan Choi; Stanley R. Johnson

    1987-01-01

    Price stabilization is an important policy goal of government intervention in competitive markets. These policies are primarily directed at raising producer income and stabilizing market prices at levels acceptable to consumers and producers (Fox 1956, Turnovsky 1978, Newbery and Stiglitz 1979). Many of the stabilization policy results have been developed from the study of agricultural commodity markets. In these markets, prices tend to be highly variable due to uncertain and inelastic supply...

  14. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Elser

    Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  15. Gold prices

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph G. Haubrich

    1998-01-01

    The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.

  16. High Penetrated Wind Farm Impacts on the Electricity Price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haji Bashi, Mazaher; Yousefi, G. R.; Bak, Claus Leth

    2016-01-01

    of the high penetrated wind farm integration into electricity markets. Then, stochastic programming approach is employed to compare the volume of trades for a typical wind farm in a high and low wind penetrated market. Although increasing price spikes and volatility was reported in the literature......Energy trading policies, intermittency of wind farm output power, low marginal cost of the production, are the key factors that cause the wind farms to be effective on the electricity price. In this paper, the Danish electricity market is studied as a part of Nord Pool. Considering the completely...... fossil fuel free overview in Danish energy policies, and the currently great share of wind power (more than 100% for some hours) in supplying the load, it is an interesting benchmark for the future electricity markets. Negative prices, price spikes, and price volatility are considered as the main effects...

  17. Cigarette price variation around high schools: evidence from Washington DC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, Jennifer; Ganz, Ollie; Anesetti-Rothermel, Andrew; Harrell, Paul; Kreslake, Jennifer M; Xiao, Haijun; Pearson, Jennifer L; Vallone, Donna; Kirchner, Thomas R

    2015-01-01

    This study examines lowest cigarette prices in all tobacco retail outlets in Washington D.C. (n=750) in relation to the type and number of high schools nearby, controlling for confounders. The lowest overall and Newport menthol prices were significantly lower at outlets near public non-charter and charter schools compared with outlets near private schools. Given higher smoking prevalence and more price-sensitive youth subgroups in U.S. public schools, exposure to low prices may contribute to tobacco-related health disparities in minority and low-income populations. Tobacco taxes combined with policies to minimize the increasing use of price as a marketing tool are critical. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Commodities and Stock Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

  19. 17 CFR 32.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.3 Unlawful commodity option transactions. (a) On and after... extend credit in lieu thereof) from an option customer as payment of the purchase price in connection...

  20. The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirantes, Andrés García; Población, Javier; Serna, Gregorio

    2013-01-01

    This paper contributes to the commodity pricing literature by consistently modeling the convenience yield with its empirically observed properties. Specifically, in this paper, we show how a four-factor model for the stochastic behavior of commodity prices, with two long- and short-term factors and two additional seasonal factors, may accommodate some of the most important empirically observed characteristics of commodity convenience yields, such as the mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. Based on this evidence, a theoretical model is presented and estimated to characterize the commodity convenience yield dynamics that are consistent with previous findings. We also show that commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields than through futures prices. - Highlights: • Energy commodity convenience yields exhibit mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. • We present a model for convenience yields accounting for their observed characteristics. • Commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields

  1. High oil prices: A non-OPEC capacity game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmundsen, Petter; Asche, Frank; Misund, Baard; Mohn, Klaus

    2005-08-01

    The current high oil price is partly due to low investments in the oil industry the last decade. According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE, for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, the demand for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Thus, we have experienced an unusual combination of high oil prices and low investment levels in exploration and development. In many ways, the oil companies' focus on RoACE, at the expense of reserve replacement, resembles an implicit co-ordination on low capacity among non-OPEC petroleum producers. This is a partial explanation of the current high oil prices. By examining actual parameters used by the financial markets in pricing of oil companies, we address the issue of whether the low investment outcome could represent a long-term equilibrium. This is hardly likely, as oil companies are made aware that stronger emphasis is put on reserve replacement. (Author)

  2. [Research progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica and discussion on several key problems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Zeng, Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping; Huang, Lu-Qi; Jin, Yan; Zheng, Yu-Guang; Wang, Yong-Yan

    2014-05-01

    Standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica is an important way to solve the "Lemons Problem" of traditional Chinese medicine market. Standards of commodity classes are also helpful to rebuild market mechanisms for "high price for good quality". The previous edition of commodity classes standards of Chinese materia medica was made 30 years ago. It is no longer adapted to the market demand. This article researched progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It considered that biological activity is a better choice than chemical constituents for standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It is also considered that the key point to set standards of commodity classes is finding the influencing factors between "good quality" and "bad quality". The article also discussed the range of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, and how to coordinate standards of pharmacopoeia and commodity classes. According to different demands, diversiform standards can be used in commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, but efficacy is considered the most important index of commodity standard. Decoction pieces can be included in standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. The authors also formulated the standards of commodity classes of Notoginseng Radix as an example, and hope this study can make a positive and promotion effect on traditional Chinese medicine market related research.

  3. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyler, Aidan [European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  4. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyler, Aidan

    2009-01-01

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  5. Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

    OpenAIRE

    Saber Talari; Miadreza Shafie-khah; Gerardo J. Osório; Fei Wang; Alireza Heidari; João P. S. Catalão

    2017-01-01

    Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind...

  6. Cigarette availability and price in low and high socioeconomic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalglish, Emma; McLaughlin, Deirdre; Dobson, Annette; Gartner, Coral

    2013-08-01

    To determine whether tobacco retailer density and cigarette prices differ between low and high socioeconomic status suburbs in South-East Queensland. A survey of retail outlets selling cigarettes was conducted in selected suburbs over a two-day period. The suburbs were identified by geographical cluster sampling based on their Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage score and size of retail complex within the suburb. All retail outlets within the suburb were visited and the retail prices for the highest ranking Australian brands were recorded at each outlet. A significant relationship was found between Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage score (in deciles) and the number of tobacco retail outlets (r=0.93, p=0.003), with the most disadvantaged suburbs having a greater number of tobacco retailers. Results also demonstrate that cigarettes were sold in a broader range of outlets in suburbs of low SES. The average price of the packs studied was significantly lower in the most disadvantaged suburbs compared to the most advantaged. While cigarettes were still generally cheaper in the most disadvantaged suburbs, the difference was no longer statistically significant when the average price of cigarette packs was compared according to outlet type (supermarket, newsagent, etc). In South-East Queensland, cigarettes are more widely available in the most disadvantaged suburbs and at lower prices than in the most advantaged suburbs. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

  7. Pricing High-Dimensional American Options Using Local Consistency Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate a new method for pricing high-dimensional American options. The method is of finite difference type but is also related to Monte Carlo techniques in that it involves a representative sampling of the underlying variables.An approximating Markov chain is built using this sampling and

  8. Irregular grid methods for pricing high-dimensional American options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berridge, S.J.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis proposes and studies numerical methods for pricing high-dimensional American options; important examples being basket options, Bermudan swaptions and real options. Four new methods are presented and analysed, both in terms of their application to various test problems, and in terms of

  9. Crude oil prices : how high, how much harm?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levesque, M.; Alexander, C.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discussed the issue of crude oil prices and the economy. Crude oil prices are on the rise due to the recent events in the Middle East. In early April, West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to nearly US$28 a barrel. Most of the increase reflects the expectation of stronger world oil demand combined with supply constraints on the part of OPEC. Although there has been some concern expressed that rising oil prices may hinder economic recovery, the authors of this report do not see evidence that rising oil prices would throw economic recovery off course, arguing that the current spike will be short-lived. They stated that even under a worse-case scenario where prices remain inflated, there is little reason to fear for the health of the Canadian economy. OPEC is expected to increase its low production quotas in June. In addition, non-OPEC nations (Russia in particular) are expected to increase oil production in the coming months. The authors also indicated that it is unlikely that conflict in the West Bank will disrupt oil supply because Israel is not an oil-exporting nation. However, oil supply could be affected if other Arab nations were drawn into the issue. It was also noted that military action against Iraq would increase oil prices, possibly as high as US$40 a barrel, but the full extent of this hike in price will probably be unsustainable. In addition, the authors emphasized that the increase in energy costs would not be enough to seriously jeopardize the economic recovery in the United States. As for Canada, it is estimated that a US$10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices would have a small, but positive impact on Canadian GDP because in contrast to the United States, Canada produces much more energy than it consumers. In 2001, Canada ran a trade surplus of $2.8 billion. The report ended by stating that although higher oil prices could add a full percentage point to headline inflation by the end of the year, core inflation is likely to remain

  10. Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored

  11. The Effects of High and Volatile Oil Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artus, Patrick; Autume, Antoine d'; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie; Coeure, Benoit; Kalantizs, Yannick; Klein, Caroline; Guesnerie, Roger; Callonnec, Gael; Gaudin, Thomas; Moisan, Francois; Lescaroux, Francois; Clerc, Marie; Marcus, Vincent; Lalanne, Guy; Pouliquen, Erwan; Simon, Olivier; Mignon, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    demand into play (this is estimated at around 0.2 in the short term and around 0.4 over the longer term for fuel demand) and possibly caused behavioural changes such as those seen in France and described in the report. The other explanation is related to energy and environmental policies, which have helped reduce oil demand. However, the strong growth expected in emerging markets is likely to increase global demand for oil by several million barrels per day by 2014. This reflects the expectation that the number of cars on the road worldwide will double by 2030, and it seems unlikely that tougher environmental constraints will contain these trends. Half of this growth will come from Asia. Such an increase in global oil demand will only be sustainable if it is accompanied by higher prices that will enable the exploitation of new unconventional oil fields or fields with high production costs. As regards volatility, the authors first repeat that there are real determinants at play: the level of oil prices encourages or discourages investment in production capacity. Low oil prices slow capacity investments and therefore limit future supply, which then causes prices to rise, thereby providing an incentive to invest and develop supply. However, neither these (endogenous) irregularities in the investment programs of oil companies and exporting countries nor changing demand trends alone can account for the sharp rise in prices between 2002 and 2008 and the very sudden drop that followed in July-August 2008. A number of observers believe that the explanation lies in speculation on the oil market. The report's authors sift through all the arguments for and against this theory. While it is undeniable that speculation has developed on the oil futures market, the authors question two key points: was this speculation really focused on an oil price rally, and could it have such a significant retroactive effect on spot prices? Their conclusions recognise that speculation was indeed

  12. Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and Commercial ... that ensure adequate value addition and ultimate remunerative price for farmers' ... and integrating them in terms of fair price determination, information flow and ...

  13. Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kyongwook; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study supplements previous regime-switching studies on WTI crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of Brent oil, WTI oil, copper, gold and silver, and the S and P 500 index, but with varying high-to-low volatility ratios. The dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 Iraq war but decreasing correlations with the S and P 500 index. The commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises, while the S and P 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises. Implications are discussed.

  14. The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

  15. Price comparison of high-cost originator medicines in European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogler, Sabine; Zimmermann, Nina; Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, high-cost medicines have increasingly been challenging the public health budget in all countries including high-income economies. In this context, this study aims to survey, analyze and compare prices of medicines that likely contribute to high expenditure for the public payers in high-income countries. We chose the following 16 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Slovakia, Spain and United Kingdom. The ex-factory price data of 30 medicines in these countries were collected in national databases accessible through the Pharmaceutical Price Information (PPI) service of Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (Austrian Public Health Institute). The ex-factory prices (median) per unit (e.g. per tablet, vial) ranged from 10.67 cent (levodopa + decarboxylase inhibitor) to 17,000 euro (ipilimumab). A total of 53% of the medicines surveyed had a unit ex-factory price (median) above 200 Euro. For two thirds of the medicines, price differences between the highest-priced country and lowest-priced country ranged between 25 and 100%; the remaining medicines, mainly low-priced medicines, had higher price differential, up to 251%. Medicines with unit prices of a few euros or less were medicines for the treatment of diseases in the nervous system (anti-depressants, medicines to treat Parkinson and for the management of neuropathic pain), of obstructive airway diseases and cardio-vascular medicines (lipid modifying agents). High-priced medicines were particularly cancer medicines. Medicine prices of Greece, Hungary, Slovakia and UK were frequently at the lower end, German and Swedish, as well as Danish and Irish prices at the upper end. For high-priced medicines, actual paid prices are likely to be lower due to confidential discounts and similar funding arrangements between industry and public payers. Pricing authorities refer to the higher undiscounted prices when they use

  16. Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boons, M.F.

    2014-01-01

    The dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing. Chapter I is motivated by the recent surge in institutional investment in commodity futures markets. The chapter studies how commodity risk is priced in stock and futures markets and asks whether this risk premium is time-varying with these

  17. A Preference-Free Formula to Value Commodity Derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper studies a new model of commodity prices in which the stochastic convenience yield is an affine function of past commodity returns. While preserving market completeness, the model exhibits price nonstationarity and mean reversion under the martingale measure, and, as a consequence, it is

  18. Prices high, tensions ease and a new OPEC is formed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    Crude oil prices rose on news that BP was to shut-in its 400,000 bpd Prudhoe Bay field, following the discovery of corrosion in a pipeline serving the field. Dated BFO went to a record high of $78.72/bbl on 8th August. Speculation that refiners on the US West Coast would seek to replace the lost Alaska North Slope crude with supplies from the Asia/Pacific region caused prices to rise there as well. US crude prices were rather less affected than elsewhere by events in Alaska as it rapidly became clear that stock levels were sufficient to deal with any loss of production. It also emerged that BP was able to keep about half of Prudhoe Bay in production. By that time, however, oil markets had latched on to an entirely different source of worry. The announcement in London that police had uncovered a plot to blow-up aeroplanes crossing the Atlantic led to concerns of a sharp fall in passenger travel. Traders were not simply worried about the effect of this on the demand for jet fuel, but expressed concerns of a more general loss of business confidence across the world. Fears over a fall in jet fuel consumption did not appear to have spread to Singapore, where jet kerosine traded at an all-time high of $91.75/bbl early in August. (author)

  19. Pricing Strategy in Online Retailing Marketplaces of Homogeneous Goods: Should High Reputation Seller Charge More?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuewen; Wei, Kwok Kee; Chen, Huaping

    There are two conflicting streams of research findings on pricing strategy: one is high reputation sellers should charge price premium, while the other is high reputation sellers should charge relatively low price. Motivated by this confliction, this study examines pricing strategy in online retailing marketplace of homogeneous goods. We conduct an empirical study using data collected from a dominant online retailing marketplace in China. Our research results indicate that, in online retailing marketplace of homogeneous goods, high reputation sellers should charge relatively low price, because the consumers of high reputation sellers are more price sensitive than the consumers of low reputation sellers.

  20. Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Acharya, Viral V; Lochstoer, Lars; Ramadorai, Tarun

    2009-01-01

    Motivated by the literature on limits-to-arbitrage, we build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers' inventory holdings, and thus spot prices. Consistent with our model, producers' default risk forecasts futures returns, spot pri...

  1. Another hurricane, high prices and more chaos in Iraq

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    Another hurricane, this time called Rita, battered the US Gulf Coast, sending oil prices up worldwide, though not to the heights seen when its predecessor, Katrina, arrived. As before, a large swathe of US refinery capacity was temporarily put out of action: this time mainly in Texas. For around a week in late September, when Rita arrived, nearly 4.1 mn bpd of crude distillation capacity was taken off-line. At the same time, some 0.9 mn bpd was still unusable as a result of the depredations of Katrina in late August, leaving the US briefly minus nearly one third of its refinery capacity. The situation improved as some capacity was brought slowly back on-line, but by the beginning of October around 3.0 mn bpd was still not back in operation. The main price effects of Katrina were on gasoline, prompting demands in the Congress and elsewhere for investigations into overcharging by refiners and retailers (see 'Focus'). A record weekly increase in the first week of September propelled the average price of regular gasoline across the US to $3.07/gall. Rita's principal effect was on heating oil, which went up in the last week of September by nearly 20% to $2.51/gall in the US Gulf. US crude oil prices remained below their immediate post-Katrina record highs (see 'The Month in Brief', September 2005) despite the loss of the entire 1.5 mn bpd production in the Gulf of Mexico following Rita's arrival. (author)

  2. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurice, J.

    2001-01-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  3. Price and maternal obesity influence purchasing of low- and high-energy-dense foods2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Paluch, Rocco A; Roemmich, James N; Cho, David

    2007-01-01

    Background Price can influence food purchases, which can influence consumption. Limited laboratory research has assessed the effect of price changes on food purchases, and no research on individual differences that may interact with price to influence purchases exists. Objective We aimed to assess the influence of price changes of low-energy-density (LED) and high-energy-density (HED) foods on mother’s food purchases in a laboratory food-purchasing analogue. Design Mothers were randomly assigned to price conditions in which the price of either LED or HED foods was manipulated from 75% to 125% of the reference purchase price, whereas the price of the alternative foods was kept at the reference value. Mothers completed purchases for 2 income levels ($15 or $30 per family member). Results Purchases were reduced when prices of LED (P elasticity of HED foods and substitution of LED for HED foods. PMID:17921365

  4. Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

    2011-12-01

    In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

  5. Managing commodity markets: the case of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salman, R.; Ferroukhi, R.

    1993-01-01

    Since primary commodity producers first took control of their natural resources, they have attempted to utilize production/price management with varying degrees of success. As a tool aimed at regulating, rather than controlling, commodity markets, this type of resource management is an essential means of achieving realistic economic returns, which, in the long run, serves the interests of the producer of the commodity in question, as well as its consumer. By regulating commodity markets in times of stable prices producing countries would benefit from a steady and constant level of export earnings, thus allowing them to achieve a sustainable level of economic development. As far as the oil market is concerned, stable prices, set in a range favourable to both producers and consumers, would give investors the confidence needed for long-term exploration. This is particularly important for a commodity such as oil, at a time when the lead time between exploration starting and actual production getting under way is increasing. Not only would producers benefit from stable export earnings, which are an essential requirement for the planning of their development process, but consuming countries would at the same time benefit in two ways: first, they would gain security of supply; and second, as fluctuations in their expenditure for this commodity are reduced, they would be a position to manage their economies more efficiently. (author)

  6. Water : a commodity or resource?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomeroy, G.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past several years, natural gas demand has increased significantly, as it is seen as an environmentally friendly, convenient and cost effective fuel. As a result, Alberta should experience the development of a sustainable resource in the form of natural gas from coal, provided adequate management of associated water is in place. The environmental impact and volume of water produced with natural gas from coal can be significant. Water is scarce and demand is growing. Gas producers are faced with the challenge of high water production and disposal costs, and often choose the deep disposal option as the most economical solution. However, environmentalists and agriculture groups who view water as a valuable resource, warrant the costs associated with the treatment of produced water. The author proposed a conceptual solution to this dilemma concerning produced water. It was suggested that producers of water should be connected with consumers, while allowing free market supply and demand dynamics to price out the inefficient use of the resource. The author also discussed the related regulatory, environmental, technological, economic, and commercial issues. It was concluded that water is both a resource and a commodity. Alberta should implement measures to promote water conservation, pollute less, and manage supply and demand. figs

  7. Oil turbulence in the next decade. An essay on high oil prices in a supply-constrained world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jesse, J.H.; Van der Linde, C.

    2008-06-01

    A CIEP analysis of the recent development of demand and supply for crude oil indicates that the mismatch in supply and demand growth could cause tighter oil markets than we already experience today. In the World Energy Outlook 2007, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible 'energy crunch'. But what was anticipated to happen in the first part of the next decade has been fast-forwarded to today, more than 5 years earlier, and could shake the very foundation of our energy systems if no action is undertaken. Without exaggeration, the recent developments in the international oil market are ground-breaking: a little over a year ago, in January 2007, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI) traded for USD50 dollar a barrel. Within a year, the price doubled to USD100 per barrel in January 2008 and pushed through to over USD135 in June 2008, against the backdrop of the fresh market supposition about reaching a whopping USD200 per barrel in 2009. If this proves to be true, the world will not only have moved from an 'Oil Demand-led World' to an 'Oil Supply-constrained World' (since 2004) but, more importantly, will then also experience a radical change in the oil price formation. Until recently, the oil price was largely underpinned by the marginal cost of the last barrel needed to match demand, with some political and economic conjuncture mark-ups or -downs. As will be presented in this paper, the current high oil prices are still primarily driven by structural factors that can be well explained without resorting to blaming speculative investors playing the futures market or the low dollar. But if prices are heading towards USD200 a barrel in 12 months' time, or for that matter even to USD150 a barrel, other drivers will gain prominence over marginal costs as the main driver. In that case, OPEC will have accomplished a long-held wish: oil will then be priced at its real value in the Western world (for instance the economic value of mobility for

  8. APEnet+: high bandwidth 3D torus direct network for petaflops scale commodity clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ammendola, R; Salamon, A; Salina, G; Biagioni, A; Prezza, O; Cicero, F Lo; Lonardo, A; Paolucci, P S; Rossetti, D; Tosoratto, L; Vicini, P; Simula, F

    2011-01-01

    We describe herein the APElink+ board, a PCIe interconnect adapter featuring the latest advances in wire speed and interface technology plus hardware support for a RDMA programming model and experimental acceleration of GPU networking; this design allows us to build a low latency, high bandwidth PC cluster, the APEnet+ network, the new generation of our cost-effective, tens-of-thousands-scalable cluster network architecture. Some test results and characterization of data transmission of a complete testbench, based on a commercial development card mounting an Altera ® FPGA, are provided.

  9. APEnet+: high bandwidth 3D torus direct network for petaflops scale commodity clusters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ammendola, R; Salamon, A; Salina, G [INFN Tor Vergata, Roma (Italy); Biagioni, A; Prezza, O; Cicero, F Lo; Lonardo, A; Paolucci, P S; Rossetti, D; Tosoratto, L; Vicini, P [INFN Roma, Roma (Italy); Simula, F [Sapienza Universita di Roma, Roma (Italy)

    2011-12-23

    We describe herein the APElink+ board, a PCIe interconnect adapter featuring the latest advances in wire speed and interface technology plus hardware support for a RDMA programming model and experimental acceleration of GPU networking; this design allows us to build a low latency, high bandwidth PC cluster, the APEnet+ network, the new generation of our cost-effective, tens-of-thousands-scalable cluster network architecture. Some test results and characterization of data transmission of a complete testbench, based on a commercial development card mounting an Altera{sup Registered-Sign} FPGA, are provided.

  10. Development of Bio-Oil Commodity Fuel as a Refinery Feedstock from High Impact Algae Biomass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kastner, James [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Mani, Sudhagar [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Das, K. C. [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Hilten, Roger [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Dept. of Biochemical Engineering; Jena, Umakanta [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States)

    2014-11-30

    A two-stage hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) process was developed to 1) reduce nitrogen levels in algal oil, 2) generate a nitrogen rich stream with limited inhibitors for recycle and algae cultivation, and 3) improve downstream catalytic hydrodenitrogenation and hydrodeoxygenation of the algal oil to refinery intermediates. In the first stage, low temperature HTL was conducted at 125, 175, and 225°C at holding times ranging from 1 to 30 min (time at reaction temperature). A consortium of three algal strains, namely Chlorella sorokiniana, Chlorella minutissima, and Scenedesmus bijuga were used to grow and harvest biomass in a raceway system – this consortium is called the UGA Raceway strain throughout the report. Subsequent analysis of the final harvested product indicated that only two strains predominated in the final harvest - Chlorella sorokiniana and Scenedesmus bijuga. Two additional strains representing a high protein (Spirulina platensis) and high lipid algae (Nannochloropsis) strains were also used in this study. These strains were purchased from suppliers. S. platensis biomass was provided by Earthrise Nutritionals LLC (Calipatria, CA) in dry powder form with defined properties, and was stored in airtight packages at 4°C prior to use. A Nannochloropsis paste from Reed Mariculture was purchased and used in the two-stage HTL/HDO experiments. The solids and liquids from this low temperature HTL pretreatment step were separated and analyzed, leading to the following conclusions. Overall, these results indicate that low temperature HTL (200-250°C) at short residence times (5-15 min) can be used to lyse algae cells and remove/separate protein and nitrogen before subsequent higher temperature HTL (for lipid and other polymer hydrolysis) and HDO. The significant reduction in nitrogen when coupled with low protein/high lipid algae cultivation methods at scale could significantly improve downstream catalytic HDO results. However, significant barriers and

  11. Aim High or Go Low? Pricing Strategies and Enrollment Effects when the Net Price Elasticity Varies with Need and Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curs, Bradley R.; Singell, Larry D., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Detailed data on individual applicants to a large public university are used to demonstrate that net price responsiveness decreases with need and ability. Enrollment effects are simulated and show a movement towards a high tuition/high aid (low tuition/low aid) policy significantly lowers (raises) tuition revenue with a modest increase (decrease)…

  12. Will Commodity Properties Affect Seller's Creditworthy: Evidence in C2C E-commerce Market in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Hui; Ling, Min

    This paper finds out that the credit rating level shows significant difference among different sub-commodity markets in E-commerce, which provides room for sellers to get higher credit rating by entering businesses with higher average credit level before fraud. In order to study the influence of commodity properties on credit rating, this paper analyzes how commodity properties affect average crediting rating through the degree of information asymmetry, returns and costs of fraud, credibility perception and fraud tolerance. Empirical study shows that Delivery, average trading volume, average price and complaint possibility have decisive impacts on credit performance; brand market share, the degree of standardization and the degree of imitation also have a relatively less significant effect on credit rating. Finally, this paper suggests that important commodity properties should be introduced to modify reputation system, for preventing credit rating arbitrage behavior where sellers move into low-rating commodity after being assigned high credit rating.

  13. Responding to high energy prices: energy management services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raynolds, M.

    2001-01-01

    Rapid growth in the number and sophistication of energy management companies has been observed in the wake of rising energy prices. These companies offer energy-efficiency consulting services to utilities, government and industry with the promise of improved cost efficiency, marketplace competitiveness and environmental commitments. The environmental benefits result from the reduction in emissions and pollutants associated with power production and natural gas used for space heating. In general, the stock in trade of these energy management companies is the energy audit involving evaluation of existing equipment in buildings and facilities and the resulting recommendations to install energy-efficient equipment such as lighting retrofits, boiler replacement, chiller replacement, variable speed drives, high-efficiency motors, improved insulation and weather proofing, water heaters and piping. The North American market for energy management services was estimated in 1997 at $208 billion (rising to $350 billion by 2004). Current market penetration is less than two per cent

  14. A dataset on tail risk of commodities markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Robert J; Vo, Duc H; Pham, Thach N; Singh, Abhay K

    2017-12-01

    This article contains the datasets related to the research article "The long and short of commodity tails and their relationship to Asian equity markets"(Powell et al., 2017) [1]. The datasets contain the daily prices (and price movements) of 24 different commodities decomposed from the S&P GSCI index and the daily prices (and price movements) of three share market indices including World, Asia, and South East Asia for the period 2004-2015. Then, the dataset is divided into annual periods, showing the worst 5% of price movements for each year. The datasets are convenient to examine the tail risk of different commodities as measured by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as well as their changes over periods. The datasets can also be used to investigate the association between commodity markets and share markets.

  15. Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zibin; Lohr, Luanne; Escalante, Cesar; Wetzstein, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short-run versus the long-run impacts. Using time-series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities, the aim is to investigate the long-run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short-run interactions. Results indicate no direct long-run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices, and limited if any direct short-run relationships. In terms of short-run price movements, sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice. With sugar the number one world input for ethanol, results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short-run agricultural commodity prices. Overall, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event (shock).

  16. COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Mednikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

  17. Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Kyung Soo; Bae, Jeong Hwan

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the US. Between 2007 and 2008, the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply, reflecting the rise in international oil prices. These dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy. Employing a structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR), we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn, which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the US. The results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline. Consequently, policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co-products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price. - Research highlights: → World economy experienced 'dual shocks', which were caused by skyrocketed oil prices and grain prices between 2007 and 2008. → Sharp increases in ethanol production in response to high oil prices were considered as a major driving force to 'ag-flation' in the United States. → Applying a time series econometric tool, called the 'structural vector auto-regression model', we evaluated relationship between ethanol production and corn prices. → The result shows that ethanol production affects corn prices in the short run, while corn prices are lowered as other corn demands (feed for livestock or export demand) decline in the long run.

  18. Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2001-01-01

    Pricing policies for gasoline by Canadian oil companies are discussed. An attempt is made to demonstrate that competition between oil companies is extremely keen, and markups are so small that to stay in business, retail outlets have to sell huge volumes and sell non-fuel products, as a means to increase revenues and margins. An explanation is provided for why gasoline prices move in unison, and why what appears to the public as collusion and gouging is, in fact, the result of retail dealers attempting to stay in business. The high prices are attributed mainly to taxes by municipalities, the provinces and the federal government; taxes are said to account for 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude makes up another 35 to 45 per cent, refining adds 10 to 15 per cent, with the remaining 5 to 10 per cent representing retail costs. (Taxes in the United States average 20 to 30 per cent). Over the longer term, gasoline prices consistently reflect the cost of crude oil, dominated by the OPEC countries which supply about 41 per cent of daily world production. Another factor is the rise of global and regional commodity markets for refined products such as gasoline. Commodity traders buy wholesale gasoline cheaply whenever it is in oversupply, and sell it for a profit into markets where the demand is greater. While this is claimed to ensure competitive prices in all markets, the practice can also trigger abrupt changes in regional markets

  19. Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, Claus; Ropenus, Stephanie

    2008-01-01

    In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm 3 . The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

  20. Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joergensen, Claus [Materials Research Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ropenus, Stephanie [Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2008-10-15

    In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm{sup 3}. The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

  1. Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joergensen, Claus [Materials Research Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ropenus, Stephanie [Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2008-10-15

    In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm{sup 3}. The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

  2. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  3. Supplement: Commodity Index Report

    Data.gov (United States)

    Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Shows index traders in selected agricultural markets. These traders are drawn from the noncommercial and commercial categories. The noncommercial category includes...

  4. The impact of high energy prices in Central American households

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuesta, Ana; Manzano, Osmel

    2010-09-15

    Central American countries have one the highest energy costs in Latin America. We look at the potential social impact of higher energy prices using household data. Depending on a portfolio of characteristics, higher energy prices could have significant impact on the poor purchasing power. In countries like Guatemala, the poorest could see a higher impact than the richest. In Mexico and Panama, the impact is higher for the 'lower middle class'. We measure indirect effects of lack of energy sources, we conclude that children that live in households that cook with fossil fuels are subject to attend less to school.

  5. The impact of high energy prices in Central American households

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuesta, Ana; Manzano, Osmel

    2010-09-15

    Central American countries have one the highest energy costs in Latin America. We look at the potential social impact of higher energy prices using household data. Depending on a portfolio of characteristics, higher energy prices could have significant impact on the poor purchasing power. In countries like Guatemala, the poorest could see a higher impact than the richest. In Mexico and Panama, the impact is higher for the 'lower middle class'. We measure indirect effects of lack of energy sources, we conclude that children that live in households that cook with fossil fuels are subject to attend less to school.

  6. DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA CARTAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

  7. Availability and Price of High Quality Day Care and Female Employment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Marianne

    In this paper I analyse to what degree availability and price of high quality publicly subsidised childcare affects female employment for women living in couples following maternity leave. The results show that unrestricted access to day care has a significantly positive effct on female employment.......The price effect is significantly negative: An increase in the price of child care of C=1 will decrease the female employment with 0.08% corresponding to a price elasticity of −0.17. This effect prevails during the first 12 months after childbirth....

  8. Why are current world food prices so high? : a memo

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banse, M.A.H.; Nowicki, P.L.; Meijl, van H.

    2008-01-01

    World agricultural prices are very volatile which is due to traditional characteristics of agricultural markets such as inelastic (short run) supply and demand curves. A combination of record low global inventory levels, weather induced supply side shocks, surging outside investor influence, record

  9. Creating scarcity from abundance: Bumper harvests, high prices ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    By purchasing majority of the maize on the market, the FRA limited the need for commercial mills to access maize directly from the market. This reduced competition in the wholesaling sector and concentrated maize supply chain around the FRA; (2) Rationing of the FRA maize sold at subsidized prices to commercial mills.

  10. An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Angela W.W.; Wan, Alan T.K.; Kwok, Jerry T.K.

    2010-01-01

    There is a large collection of literature on energy price forecasting, but most studies typically use monthly average or close-to-close daily price data. In practice, the daily price range constructed from the daily high and low also contains useful information on price volatility and is used frequently in technical analysis. The interaction between the daily high and low and the associated daily range has been examined in several recent studies on stock price and exchange rate forecasts. The present paper adopts a similar approach to analyze the behaviour of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price over a ten-year period. We find that daily highs and lows of the WTI oil price are cointegrated, with the error correction term being closely approximated by the daily price range. Two forecasting models, one based on a vector error correction mechanism and the other based on a transfer function framework with the range taken as a driver variable, are presented for forecasting the daily highs and lows. The results show that both of these models offer significant advantages over the naive random walk and univariate ARIMA models in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. A trading strategy that makes use of the daily high and low forecasts is further developed. It is found that this strategy generally yields very reasonable trading returns over an evaluation period of about two years. (author)

  11. Using Localised Quadratic Functions on an Irregular Grid for Pricing High-Dimensional American Options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    We propose a method for pricing high-dimensional American options on an irregular grid; the method involves using quadratic functions to approximate the local effect of the Black-Scholes operator.Once such an approximation is known, one can solve the pricing problem by time stepping in an explicit

  12. Towards sustained high oil prices and increasingly volatile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auverlot, Dominique; Teillant, Aude; Rech, Olivier

    2012-09-01

    It is particularly difficult to predict the evolution of global oil production and its ability to meet the demand: the main uncertainties are related to the magnitude of the growth of emerging countries, more or less rapid decline in the production of major oil fields current events as well as natural or accidental, but especially geopolitics, which may affect, at any time, production. In a tight market today, the rapid growth of emerging economies, disruption of the oil supply chain world, even its mere mention, could cause short-term loss of excess production capacity - largely concentrated in Saudi Arabia - an increase substantial progress and, as contemplated by the International Atomic Energy imbalances between global oil supply and demand. If, after 2020, production of conventional oil begins to decline and the demand from emerging markets continues to grow, more massive imbalances may arise, leading to potential geopolitical tensions. Control would then demand the best answer. Otherwise, the resources of unconventional hydrocarbons, considerable expected to meet the demand, provided that their development is fast enough and their operating conditions are environmentally friendly. A consensus is emerging today on keeping oil prices high (above $ 100 / barrel) and volatile in the coming years, allowing some producing countries to pursue their development, but for France amplifying the negative effects on the economic growth oil bill (more than 49 billion euros in 2011) weighs more heavily in our trade deficit. In all cases, climate issues, the weight of the oil bill on our economy, securing our energy supply and technical uncertainties or geopolitical oil production call for reducing our oil consumption, accelerated motion the transition to a low carbon economy and development of our own energy resources. Contents: - Current analysis of oil reserves; - Uncertainties about the evolution of world oil production; - What is the potential long-term oil production

  13. The Influence of Agricultural Commodity on F&B Company’s Performance in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rofikoh Rokhim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the influence of agricultural commodity price movements on stock price and gross profit of food and beverage companies in Indonesia, as well as the effect of volatility prices of agricultural commodities. Using time series data of food and beverages (F&B companies that are listed at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX, this research calculating the event studies to find the abnormal returns. The results showed that the movement of agricultural commodity prices has a positive effect on stock prices of F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and sugar. Agricultural commodity prices also affect positively on gross profit F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and palm oil. The increase in prices of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of a positive cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies. The results also showed that the decline of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of negative cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies.

  14. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    This publication by the National Energy Board is part of a continuing program of assessing applications for long-term natural gas export licences. The market-based procedure used by the Board is based on the premise that the marketplace will generally operate in a way that will ensure that Canadian requirements for natural gas will be met at fair market prices. The market--based procedure consists of a public hearing and a monitoring component. The monitoring component involves the on-going assessment of Canadian energy markets to provide analyses of major energy commodities on either an individual or integrated commodity basis. This report is the result of the most recent assessment . It identifies factors that affect natural gas prices and describes the functioning of regional markets in Canada. It provides an overview of the energy demand, including recent trends, reviews the North American gas supply and markets, the natural gas pricing dynamics in Canada, and a regional analysis of markets, prices and dynamics in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In general, demand growth outstripped growth in supply, but natural gas producers throughout North America have been responding to the current high price environment with aggressive drilling programs. The Board anticipates that in time, there will be a supply and demand response and accompanying relief in natural gas prices. A review of the annual weighted average border price paid for Alberta gas indicates that domestic gas users paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices converged, suggesting that Canadians have had access to natural gas at prices no less favourable than export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems such as NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had significant impact on the pricing of natural gas. These systems, by providing timely information to market participants. enables them to manage price

  15. 7 CFR Exhibit B to Subpart A of... - Memorandum of Understanding and Blanket Commodity Lien Waiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... commodity with respect to which the loan or purchase is made. The word “subordinated” means that, in the... makes loans to farmers on the security of agricultural commodities that are eligible for price support under loan and purchase programs conducted by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). FmHA or its...

  16. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  17. Developments in Global Food Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Vanessa Rayner; Emily Laing; Jamie Hall

    2011-01-01

    Global food prices have increased significantly since the early 2000s, reversing the long-run trend decline in relative food prices over previous decades. A range of supply disruptions in key food-producing countries have contributed to higher food prices, along with strong demand from developing countries as per capita incomes rise and consumption patterns change. Rising commodity prices are leading to higher headline consumer price inflation in many countries though, at this stage, core mea...

  18. Energy intensities and the impact of high energy prices on producing and consuming sectors in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    The increase in oil prices has put pressure on the global economy. Even economies that have a high degree of self-sufficiency concerning oil products are experiencing rising production costs and price increases for households energy use. Therefore, changes in energy policies are under consideration for countries highly dependent on imported energy as well as countries with a high degree of self-sufficiency. Examination of dependence on cheap energy sources for economic growth in different...

  19. Energy intensities and the impact of high energy prices on producing and consuming sectors in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    The increase in oil prices has put pressure on the global economy. Even economies that have a high degree of self-sufficiency concerning oil products are experiencing rising production costs and price increases for households energy use. Therefore, changes in energy policies are under consideration for countries highly dependent on imported energy as well as countries with a high degree of self-sufficiency. Examination of dependence on cheap energy sources for economic growth in different eco...

  20. Do ultra-orphan medicinal products warrant ultra-high prices? A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Picavet E

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Eline Picavet,1 David Cassiman,2 Steven Simoens1 1Department of Pharmaceutical and Pharmacological Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; 2Department of Hepatology, University Hospital Leuven, Leuven, Belgium Abstract: Ultra-orphan medicinal products (ultra-OMPs are intended for the treatment, prevention, or diagnosis of ultra-rare diseases, ie, life-threatening or chronically debilitating diseases that affect less than one per 50,000 individuals. Recently, high prices for ultra-OMPs have given rise to debate on the sustainability and justification of these prices. The aim of this article is to review the international scientific literature on the pricing of ultra-OMPs and to provide an overview of the current knowledge on the drivers of ultra-OMP pricing. The pricing process of ultra-OMPs is a complex and nontransparent issue. Evidence in the literature seems to indicate that ultra-OMPs are priced according to rarity and what the manufacturer believes the market will bear. Additionally, there appears to be a trend between the price of an ultra-OMP and the number of available alternatives. Patients, third-party payers, and pharmaceutical companies could benefit from more transparent pricing strategies. With a view to containing health care costs, it is likely that cost-sharing strategies, such as performance-based risk sharing arrangements, will become increasingly more important. However, it is vital that any measures for price control are consistent with the intended goals of the incentives to promote the development of new OMPs. Ideally, a balance must be struck between attaining affordable prices for ultra-OMPs and securing a realistic return on investment for the pharmaceutical industry. Keywords: ultra-orphan medicinal product, ultra-rare disease, pricing

  1. Poverty and growth impacts of high oil prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naranpanawa, Athula; Bandara, Jayatilleke S.

    2012-01-01

    The sharp rise in oil and food prices in 2007 and 2008 caused negative impacts on poverty and economic growth in many oil and food importing developing countries. Some analysts believe that these countries are under stress again due to a rise in crude oil prices, to a two-and-a-half year high in March 2011, which has also been partly responsible for higher food prices in recent months. However, there is a limited body of empirical evidence available from developing countries on the impact of high oil prices on growth in general and household poverty in particular. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework to explore the growth and poverty impacts of high oil prices. The results suggest that urban low income households are the group most adversely affected by high global oil prices, followed by low income rural households. In contrast, estate low income households are the least affected out of all low income households. The energy intensive manufacturing sector and services sector are affected most compared to the agricultural sector. - Highlights: ► Using a general equilibrium model we find poverty and oil price link for Sri Lanka. ► Urban low income households are the group most adversely affected. ► Energy intensive manufacturing and services sectors are affected most.

  2. High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutler, Nicholas J.; Boerema, Nicholas D.; MacGill, Iain F.; Outhred, Hugh R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations. - Highlights: → In South Australia (SA) wind generation is having an influence on market prices. → Little or no correlation is found between wind generation and demand. → Wind farms in SA are receiving a lower average price than in other States. → The results highlight the importance of appropriate electricity market design.

  3. Mineral commodity summaries 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2015-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2015 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2014 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses.

  4. Locational Pricing to Mitigate Voltage Problems Caused by High PV Penetration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Weckx

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a locational marginal pricing algorithm is proposed to control the voltage in unbalanced distribution grids. The increasing amount of photovoltaic (PV generation installed in the grid may cause the voltage to rise to unacceptable levels during periods of low consumption. With locational prices, the distribution system operator can steer the reactive power consumption and active power curtailment of PV panels to guarantee a safe network operation. Flexible loads also respond to these prices. A distributed gradient algorithm automatically defines the locational prices that avoid voltage problems. Using these locational prices results in a minimum cost for the distribution operator to control the voltage. Locational prices can differ between the three phases in unbalanced grids. This is caused by a higher consumption or production in one of the phases compared to the other phases and provides the opportunity for arbitrage, where power is transferred from a phase with a low price to a phase with a high price. The effect of arbitrage is analyzed. The proposed algorithm is applied to an existing three-phase four-wire radial grid. Several simulations with realistic data are performed.

  5. Survey of Alternative Feedstocks for Commodity Chemical Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McFarlane, Joanna [ORNL; Robinson, Sharon M [ORNL

    2008-02-01

    The current high prices for petroleum and natural gas have spurred the chemical industry to examine alternative feedstocks for the production of commodity chemicals. High feedstock prices have driven methanol and ammonia production offshore. The U.S. Chemical Industry is the largest user of natural gas in the country. Over the last 30 years, alternatives to conventional petroleum and natural gas feedstocks have been developed, but have limited, if any, commercial implementation in the United States. Alternative feedstocks under consideration include coal from unconventional processing technologies, such as gasification and liquefaction, novel resources such as biomass, stranded natural gas from unconventional reserves, and heavy oil from tar sands or oil shale. These feedstock sources have been evaluated with respect to the feasibility and readiness for production of the highest volume commodity chemicals in the United States. Sources of organic compounds, such as ethanol from sugar fermentation and bitumen-derived heavy crude are now being primarily exploited for fuels, rather than for chemical feedstocks. Overall, government-sponsored research into the use of alternatives to petroleum feedstocks focuses on use for power and transportation fuels rather than for chemical feedstocks. Research is needed to reduce cost and technical risk. Use of alternative feedstocks is more common outside the United States R&D efforts are needed to make these processes more efficient and less risky before becoming more common domestically. The status of alternative feedstock technology is summarized.

  6. Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Lu Zou

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent housing policies include measures for home purchase control and shanty town redevelopment. This study proposes sustainable pricing, in that the long-run equilibrium price is determined by the fundamentals of house prices. We argue that changes in CPI might have led to rapidly growing house prices and rather high price levels. We investigate the long-run or short-run impacts of new commodity housing completions, transacted square meters of commodity housing, and CPI for house prices in Shanghai. We adopt monthly data for the period of 2005–2010. We test for unit roots using both the ADF and PP techniques and structural breaks using both the Zivot-Andrews (Model B and Perron (Model C methods. Considering Cheung-Lai and Reinsel–Ahn finite-sample corrections, the results suggest a long-run equilibrium. Housing completions negatively impact house prices in the short run. A positive volume-price relationship is suggested. Housing sales affect house prices in the short run but not vice versa. Hence, the empirical evidence supports the search model. In addition, CPI is strongly exogenous with respect to the long-run relationship and thus is a long-term determinant of house prices. CPI also positively and drastically influences house prices in the short run. Therefore, a reduction in inflation rate could stabilize house prices, increasing the chances of sustainable prices in the future.

  7. Manufacturing process design for multi commodities in agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyawan, Yudha; Santosa, Andrian Henry

    2017-06-01

    High-potential commodities within particular agricultural sectors should be accompanied by maximum benefit value that can be attained by both local farmers and business players. In several cases, the business players are small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which have limited resources to perform added value process of the local commodities into the potential products. The weaknesses of SMEs such as the manual production process with low productivity, limited capacity to maintain prices, and unattractive packaging due to conventional production. Agricultural commodity is commonly created into several products such as flour, chips, crackers, oil, juice, and other products. This research was initiated by collecting data by interview method particularly to obtain the perspectives of SMEs as the business players. Subsequently, the information was processed based on the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to determine House of Quality from the first to fourth level. A proposed design as the result of QFD was produced and evaluated with Technology Assessment Model (TAM) and continued with a revised design. Finally, the revised design was analyzed with financial perspective to obtain the cost structure of investment, operational, maintenance, and workers. The machine that performs manufacturing process, as the result of revised design, was prototyped and tested to determined initial production process. The designed manufacturing process offers IDR 337,897, 651 of Net Present Value (NPV) in comparison with the existing process value of IDR 9,491,522 based on similar production input.

  8. Optimal Commodity Taxation and Income Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Benassi, Corrado; Randon, Emanuela

    2015-01-01

    We consider the interplay between income distribution and optimal commodity taxation, linking equity issues to optimal taxes through the effect of income distribution on market demand and its price elasticity. We find conditions to conciliate the equity and efficiency tradeoff and to assess the impact of inequality changes on the optimal taxation of necessity and luxury goods. We show that the regressivity or progressivity of the tax system is determined by the distribution of luxuries and ne...

  9. Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganebnykh Elena

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia. A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers’ expectations of an “ideal facility”.

  10. Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganebnykh, Elena; Burtseva, Tatyana; Gurova, Ekaterina; Polyakova, Irina

    2018-03-01

    The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia). A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers' expectations of an "ideal facility".

  11. Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wanner, Markus, E-mail: markus.wanner@mrm.uni-augsburg.de; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt; Rathgeber, Andreas [University of Augsburg, Institute for Materials Resource Management (Germany)

    2015-06-15

    The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% of all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events.

  12. Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saber Talari

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind generators based on Wavelet transform, bivariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN. To this end, a weighted time series for wind dominated power systems is calculated and added to a bivariate ARIMA model along with the price time series. Moreover, RBFN is applied as a tool to correct the estimation error, and particle swarm optimization (PSO is used to optimize the structure and adapt the RBFN to the particular training set. This method is evaluated on the Spanish electricity market, which shows the efficiency of this approach. This method has less error compared with other methods especially when it considers the effects of large-scale wind generators.

  13. Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wanner, Markus; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt; Rathgeber, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% of all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events

  14. A Pricing Strategy To Promote Sales of Lower Fat Foods in High School Cafeterias: Acceptability and Sensitivity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, Peter; French, Simone A.; Story, Mary; Fulkerson, Jayne A.

    2002-01-01

    Examined the purchase patterns of seven targeted foods under conditions in which prices of three high-fat foods were raised and prices of four low-fat foods were lowered in a high school cafeteria over 1 school year. Data collected on food sales and revenues supported the feasibility of a pricing strategy that offered low-fat foods at lower prices…

  15. UNCTAD commodity yearbook 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The Commodity Yearbook is intended to provide disaggregated data at the world, regional and country levels for trade and consumption in selected agricultural primary commodities and minerals, ores and metals. Production series have been included for the latter group of commodities, since comprehensive diaggregated data are unavailable elsewhere. Basic tables have been designed, from both the commodity and the country point of view, to serve as background material to international commodity discussions and negotiations in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The classification of countries and territories by region has been adopted for statistical convenience only, and follows that employed by the Statistical Office of the United Nations. Four main regions are defined: Developed market economy countries, Countries of Eastern Europe, Socialist countries of Asia and Developing countries and territories. For developed and developing countries and territories, the main regions have been further subdivided (e.g., EEC, EFTA, Africa, etc.) to provide additional information. The exact composition of each region is shown in section V of the general notes

  16. Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors-super- †

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Abbott; Adeline Borot de Battisti

    2011-01-01

    Dramatic increases in international agricultural commodity prices began in 2006 and peaked in July 2008. An equally remarkable and rapid decline of those prices then ensued, accompanied by extreme volatility in those prices. The trend in food prices lagged the rapid increases in other commodity prices, including oil and metals, but accompanied those other prices in the downward part of the cycle. Not all agricultural commodities increased to the same extent—grains and oilseed prices increased...

  17. Natural gas pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedenthal, C.

    1993-01-01

    Natural gas pricing is the heart and soul of the gas business. Price specifically affects every phase of the industry. Too low a price will result in short supplies as seen in the mid-1970s when natural gas was scarce and in tight supply. To fully understand the pricing of this energy commodity, it is important to understand the total energy picture. In addition, the effect and impact of world and US economies, and economics in general are crucial to understanding natural gas pricing. The purpose of this presentation will be to show the parameters going into US natural gas pricing including the influence of the many outside industry factors like crude oil and coal pricing, market drivers pushing the gas industry, supply/demand parameters, risk management for buyers and sellers, and other elements involved in pricing analysis

  18. Supply Chain Shipment Pricing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This data set provides supply chain health commodity shipment and pricing data. Specifically, the data set identifies Antiretroviral (ARV) and HIV lab shipments to...

  19. Poverty, Policy and Price Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters in which different aspects of the relationship between international commodity markets and domestic food markets are explored. What motivates the analysis is the recent surge in international commodity prices and the controversy over the poverty...

  20. Henry Hub and national balancing point prices: what will be the international gas price reference?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, A.E.H.

    2005-01-01

    One of the lessons in the history of international trade in commodities is the emergence - sooner or later - of an international price reference, most commonly known as an international marker price. In the area of oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plays the role of a marker for sour crudes traded in the Atlantic basin. Brent oil fulfils this function for sweet crudes traded in Europe. Another important aspect in the area of global commodities is that the emergence of a marker price is not always necessarily related to the relative share of production of exports of the commodity, but primarily to the existence of an organized market for this commodity. Today, while international gas trade is intensifying, we still lack an international price reference for this commodity. This is due to the fact that the international trade of natural gas is still highly regionalized. It is also due to the fact that most gas markets are still regulated. Nevertheless, deregulation efforts have been implemented in both developed (the United States, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, Korea) and developing countries (Brazil, Chile) and have led to new market structures based on more competition in all segments of the gas chain, except transportation. In the meantime, price structures based on supply and demand principles are supposed to have emerged in the US and UK markets in the 1990s as a result of the implementation of deregulation measures. Today, the US gas market, which represents more than 660 billion cubic metres per year of consumption and the UK gas market, which is close to 100 bcm annually, are considered mature enough to make the principles of supply and demand operate inside these markets. In fact, the Henry Hub (HH) price, which is determined at a physical location in Louisiana, US, and the national balancing point (NBP) price, which is determined somewhere inside the national transmission system (NTS), without any precise location, are considered as potential

  1. 17 CFR 242.201 - Price test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Price test. 242.201 Section...-Regulation of Short Sales § 242.201 Price test. Link to an amendment published at 75 FR 11323, Mar. 10, 2010. (a) No short sale price test, including any short sale price test of any self-regulatory organization...

  2. Food Prices Transmission In Rwanda: Econometric Analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ahavugimana

    (2010) found that if markets are efficient and policies are not an obstacle to their operation, changes in the world price of any given commodity should be similarly reflected in changes in domestic prices – phenomenon known as 'price transmission'. In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods have ...

  3. DESIGNING GREEN SUPPORT: INCENTIVE COMPATIBILITY AND THE COMMODITY PROGRAMS

    OpenAIRE

    Runge, C. Ford

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this brief analysis is to consider the potential points of contact between a program of "green support" and the existing commodity programs in U.S. agriculture. These points of contact may take the form of conflict, complementarity, or neutrality. We shall assume initially that green support is "added" to the programs as they exist in 1994. Five main commodity program areas are considered: A. Deficiency payments resulting from the loan rate/target price structure B. Acreage red...

  4. The Role of Incompleteness in Commodity Futures Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi eKanamura

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a convenience yield-based pricing for commodity futures, which embeds incompleteness of commodity futures markets in convenience yields. By using the pricing method, we conduct empirical analyses of the prices of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX in order to assess the incompleteness of energy futures markets. We show that the fluctuation from the incompleteness is partly driven by the fluctuation from convenience yields. In addition, it is shown that the incompleteness of natural gas futures market is more highlighted than the incompleteness of WTI crude oil and heating oil futures markets. We apply the implied market price of risk from the NYMEX data to pricing an Asian call option written on WTI crude oil futures. Finally, we try to apply the market incompleteness analysis to the post-crisis periods after 2009.

  5. Commodity risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary Till

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  6. Gluten-Free Foods in Rural Maritime Provinces: Limited Availability, High Price, and Low Iron Content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Jennifer A; Gougeon, Laura

    2017-12-01

    We investigated the price difference between gluten-free (GF) and gluten-containing (GC) foods available in rural Maritime stores. GF foods and comparable GC items were sampled through random visits to 21 grocery stores in nonurban areas of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, Canada. Wilcoxon rank tests were conducted on price per 100 g of product, and on the price relative to iron content; 2226 GF foods (27.2% staple items, defined as breads, cereals, flours, and pastas) and 1625 GC foods were sampled, with an average ± SD of 66 ± 2.7 GF items per store in rural areas and 331 ± 12 in towns. The median price of GF items ($1.76/100 g) was more expensive than GC counterparts ($1.05/100 g) and iron density was approximately 50% less. GF staple foods were priced 5% higher in rural stores than in town stores. Although the variety of GF products available to consumers has improved, higher cost and lower nutrient density remain issues in nonurban Maritime regions. Dietitians working in nonurban areas should consider the relative high price, difficult access, and low iron density of key GF items, and work together with clients to find alternatives and enhance their food literacy.

  7. Unit of Account, Medium of Exchange, and Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Young Sik Kim; Manjong Lee

    2011-01-01

    The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity-money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller¡¯s choice with regard to posting price in terms of either an MoE or a UoA. If the likelihood of debasement of MoE or its rate is high enough and agents are sufficiently risk averse, there exists a monetary equilibrium in which price is quoted in terms of a UoA. Further, a UoA-posting equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas ...

  8. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2009-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2009 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2008 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Because specific information concerning committed inventory was no longer available from the Defense Logistics Agency, National Defense Stockpile Center, that information, which was included in earlier Mineral Commodity Summaries publications, has been deleted from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009. National reserves and reserve base information for most mineral commodities found in this report, including those for the United States, are derived from a variety of sources. The ideal source of such information would be comprehensive evaluations that apply the same criteria to deposits in different geographic areas and report the results by country. In the absence of such evaluations, national reserves and reserve base estimates compiled by countries for selected mineral commodities are a primary source of national reserves and reserve base information. Lacking national assessment information by governments, sources such as academic articles, company reports, common business practice, presentations by company representatives, and trade journal articles, or a combination of these, serve as the basis for national reserves and reserve base information reported in the mineral commodity sections of this publication. A national estimate may be assembled from the following: historically reported

  9. Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Kumar GUPTA

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available With the current pace of growth, India would emerge as a major player in the international market in terms of commodity consumption, production and trade. Going by trade volume and also the possibly as an identifiable influence on the price making process on the essential commodities, the futures and spot markets have shown major variations. Increased volatility in asset prices has been a major reason behind the integration of domestic financial markets with the international financial sector accentuating the demand for the trading in the derivative market. Though organized commodity trading has been in from the nineteenth century in India, the commodity derivative markets in the new form with nationwide electronic trading and access have opened the gates for speculators, hedgers and other market participants to capitalize on the development. The robust growth of the commodity markets can be observed in terms of number of commodities trade volumes and growing number of both the market participants and the commodity exchanges. Liquidity booms reflected by loose monetary policy are responsible for major surge in commodity prices globally in addition to direct tangible impacts of oil prices especially in developing countries with heavy oil imports like India. Futures markets are created to fulfill genuine desires economic functions of hedging and price discovery. But, enormous futures trading observed on the commodity exchanges have raised a host of issues like inflation guided by the fuelling principle implying the direct relationship between volatility and inflation. Huge price volatility in futures segment on the commodity exchanges has therefore raised concerns relating to the market efficiencies, infrastructure and knowledge and also their consequential impact on cash markets. The demand and supply side of the commodity price mechanism is traditionally governed by numerous factors including the climatic conditions, availability of critical

  10. Profiling the high frequency wine consumer by price segmentation in the US market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liz Thach

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Heavy users of consumer products are important to marketers as a profitable target segment. This is equally true in the wine industry, but with the added precaution of encouraging responsible consumption. This study examines the attributes and behaviors of 681 high frequency (heavy-user wine consumers in the US, based on a price segmentation of High, Moderate, and Low Spenders. For this study, price segmentation was defined as the price typically paid for a bottle of wine for home consumption. Significant differences were discovered based on gender, age, income, wine involvement, shopping channel, ecommerce/social media usage and other key areas. Implications for marketing managers as well as areas of future research are described.

  11. Pricing Exotic Options under a High-Order Markovian Regime Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wai-Ki Ching

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We consider the pricing of exotic options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are governed by a discrete-time Markovian regime-switching process driven by an observable, high-order Markov model (HOMM. We assume that the market interest rate, the drift, and the volatility of the underlying risky asset's return switch over time according to the states of the HOMM, which are interpreted as the states of an economy. We will then employ the well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for option valuation. Moreover, we will also investigate the impact of the high-order effect of the states of the economy on the prices of some path-dependent exotic options, such as Asian options, lookback options, and barrier options.

  12. Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony D. Hall; Paul Kofman; Steve Manaster

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options pri...

  13. Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2010-01-01

    The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)

  14. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  15. Mineral commodity summaries 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2013 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2012 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2013 are welcomed.

  16. Mineral commodity summaries 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2014-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2013 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2014 are welcomed.

  17. High Generic Drug Prices and Market Competition: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, Chintan V; Kesselheim, Aaron S; Fox, Erin R; Qiu, Peihua; Hartzema, Abraham

    2017-08-01

    Prices for some generic drugs have increased in recent years, adversely affecting patients who rely on them. To determine the association between market competition levels and the change in generic drug prices in the United States. Retrospective cohort study. Prescription claims from commercial health plans between 2008 and 2013. The 5.5 years of data were divided into 11 study periods of 6 months each. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)-calculated by summing the squares of individual manufacturers' market shares, with higher values indicating a less competitive market-and average drug prices were estimated for the generic drugs in each period. The HHI value estimated in the baseline period (first half of 2008) was modeled as a fixed covariate. Models estimated price changes over time by level of competition, adjusting for drug shortages, market size, and dosage forms. From 1.08 billion prescription claims, a cohort of 1120 generic drugs was identified. After adjustment, drugs with quadropoly (HHI value of 2500, indicating relatively high levels of competition), duopoly (HHI value of 5000), near-monopoly (HHI value of 8000), and monopoly (HHI value of 10 000) levels of baseline competition were associated with price changes of -31.7% (95% CI, -34.4% to -28.9%), -11.8% (CI, -18.6% to -4.4%), 20.1% (CI, 5.5% to 36.6%), and 47.4% (CI, 25.4% to 73.2%), respectively, over the study period. Study findings may not be generalizable to drugs that became generic after 2008. Market competition levels were associated with a change in generic drug prices. Such measurements may be helpful in identifying older prescription drugs at higher risk for price change in the future. None.

  18. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  19. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

  20. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-07-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

  1. Energy and commodities market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokermann, Marcus; Prass, Markus

    2015-01-01

    The electricity markets in Central and Western Europe and in the nordic countries have further shown weak in 2014 with falling prices. The key factors were the declining quotations for coal and natural gas and the warm weather. Another driver was the growth of renewable energy. In the power markets conditions remained mostly an oversupply. The upward trending prices on the CO 2 emissions market were not formative enough to turn the market sentiment. They only caused for volatility during the year. [de

  2. The Optimal Pricing of Computer Software and Other Products with High Switching Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Pekka Ahtiala

    2004-01-01

    The paper studies the determinants of the optimum prices of computer programs and their upgrades. It is based on the notion that because of the human capital invested in the use of a computer program by its user, this product has high switching costs, and on the finding that pirates are responsible for generating over 80 per cent of new software sales. A model to maximize the present value of the program to the program house is constructed to determine the optimal prices of initial programs a...

  3. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

  4. An irregular grid approach for pricing high-dimensional American options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting. The method is centered around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid. We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE

  5. An Irregular Grid Approach for Pricing High-Dimensional American Options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting.The method is centred around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid.We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE

  6. Pricing and hedging high-dimensional American options : an irregular grid approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berridge, S.; Schumacher, H.

    2002-01-01

    We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high dimensional setting. The method is centred around the approximation of the associated variational inequality on an irregular grid. We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE

  7. A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajipriya, N.

    2012-10-01

    The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

  8. The Financial Industry's Challenge of Developing Commodity Derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1999-01-01

    With a constant new stream of financial services coming to the market, each often more exotic and complicated than the last, the financial services industry, which includes commodity derivatives exchanges, brokerage houses and banks providing price risk reduction services (the so-called hedging

  9. Commodity Tracker: Mobile Application for Food Security Monitoring in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, M. T.; Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Gourley, J. R.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Haiti Food Security Monitoring Mobile App Team

    2011-12-01

    Megan Chiu, Jason Baird, Xu Huang, Trishan de Lanerolle, Ralph Morelli, Jonathan Gourley Trinity College, Computer Science Department and Environmental Science Program, 300 Summit Street, Hartford, CT 06106 megan.chiu@trincoll.edu, Jason.baird@trincoll.edu, xu.huang@trincoll.edu, trishan.delanerolle@trincoll.edu, ralph.morelli@trincoll.edu, jonathan.gourley@trincoll.edu Price data for Haiti commodities such as rice and potatoes have been traditionally recorded by hand on paper forms for many years. The information is then entered onto computer manually, thus making the process a long and arduous one. With the development of the Haiti Commodity Tracker mobile app, we are able to make this commodity price data recording process more efficient. Officials may use this information for making inferences about the difference in commodity prices and for food distribution during critical time after natural disasters. This information can also be utilized by governments and aid agencies on their food assistance programs. Agronomists record the item prices from several sample sites in a marketplace and compare those results from other markets across the region. Due to limited connectivity in rural areas, data is first saved to the phone's database and then retransmitted to a central server via SMS messaging. The mobile app is currently being field tested by an international NGO providing agricultural aid and support in rural Haiti.

  10. New Commodity Services System increases gas bill for clients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koevoet, H.

    2003-01-01

    The Dutch company Gasunie Trade and Supply will replace the Commodity Services System (CDS, abbreviated in Dutch) January 1, 2004. This will result in a higher gas bill for almost all their clients that are expected to use more than 1 million m 3 natural gas per year. An overview is given of the principles of the old and the new pricing system [nl

  11. Targeted advertising, promotion, and price for menthol cigarettes in California high school neighborhoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa; Schleicher, Nina C; Dauphinee, Amanda L; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2012-01-01

    To describe advertising, promotions, and pack prices for the leading brands of menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes near California high schools and to examine their associations with school and neighborhood demographics. In stores (n = 407) within walking distance (0.8 km [1/2 mile]) of California high schools (n = 91), trained observers counted ads for menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes and collected data about promotions and prices for Newport and Marlboro, the leading brand in each category. Multilevel modeling examined the proportion of all cigarette advertising for any menthol brand, the proportion of stores with sales promotions, and the lowest advertised pack price in relation to store types and school/neighborhood demographics. For each 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of Black students, the proportion of menthol advertising increased by 5.9 percentage points (e.g., from an average of 25.7%-31.6%), the odds of a Newport promotion were 50% higher (95% CI = 1.01, 2.22), and the cost of Newport was 12 cents lower (95% CI = -0.18, -0.06). By comparison, the odds of a promotion and the price for Marlboro, the leading brand of nonmenthol cigarettes, were unrelated to any school or neighborhood demographics. In high school neighborhoods, targeted advertising exposes Blacks to more promotions and lower prices for the leading brand of menthol cigarettes. This evidence contradicts the manufacturer's claims that the availability of its promotions is not based on race/ethnicity. It also highlights the need for tobacco control policies that would limit disparities in exposure to retail marketing for cigarettes.

  12. Targeted Advertising, Promotion, and Price For Menthol Cigarettes in California High School Neighborhoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, Nina C.; Dauphinee, Amanda L.; Fortmann, Stephen P.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: To describe advertising, promotions, and pack prices for the leading brands of menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes near California high schools and to examine their associations with school and neighborhood demographics. Methods: In stores (n = 407) within walking distance (0.8 km [1/2 mile]) of California high schools (n = 91), trained observers counted ads for menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes and collected data about promotions and prices for Newport and Marlboro, the leading brand in each category. Multilevel modeling examined the proportion of all cigarette advertising for any menthol brand, the proportion of stores with sales promotions, and the lowest advertised pack price in relation to store types and school/neighborhood demographics. Results: For each 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of Black students, the proportion of menthol advertising increased by 5.9 percentage points (e.g., from an average of 25.7%–31.6%), the odds of a Newport promotion were 50% higher (95% CI = 1.01, 2.22), and the cost of Newport was 12 cents lower (95% CI = −0.18, −0.06). By comparison, the odds of a promotion and the price for Marlboro, the leading brand of nonmenthol cigarettes, were unrelated to any school or neighborhood demographics. Conclusions: In high school neighborhoods, targeted advertising exposes Blacks to more promotions and lower prices for the leading brand of menthol cigarettes. This evidence contradicts the manufacturer’s claims that the availability of its promotions is not based on race/ethnicity. It also highlights the need for tobacco control policies that would limit disparities in exposure to retail marketing for cigarettes. PMID:21705460

  13. How Macroecomic Factors Influence the Commodity Market in the Financialization Period: The Case of S & P GSCI Commodity Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamil Smolík

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In connection to the process of financialization of commodity markets which is caused by the sharp increase of money flowing into the commodity markets, the question of which factors affect commodity and commodity indices prices is discussed. In this article, the importance of chosen macroeconomic determinants to the price variability of one of the most important commodity indexes S & P GSCI by using the Boosted Trees method is quantified. The results obtained in the research show that changes in the monthly values of macroeconomic determinants reflect and can, according to the model used, explain the volatility of the monthly average index S & P GSCI Total Return to more than 75%. The most important macroeconomic determinants proved to be Nominal Effective Exchange Rate of USD or US – Short-term interest rates.

  14. Trends and volatility in sub Saharan Africa’s key primary commodity exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Ocran

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Using a GARCH model the paper sought to test the hypothesis that price volatility of key Sub Saharan Africa primary commodity exports, have not changed over the past four decades. Whilst crude oil, aluminium, cocoa and six others have not experienced significant change in price volatility over the period, nine other major commodities recorded changes. Efforts need to be made to extensively diversify the portfolio of agricultural commodity exports by including new products of which price volatilities in the past decades have been reduced. This is crucial for countries that depend on up to three primary commodities for the bulk of their foreign exchange earnings. Other measures such as value addition can also help in reducing impacts of unfavourable price movements.

  15. 7 CFR 1599.11 - Use of commodities and sale proceeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE McGOVERN-DOLE INTERNATIONAL FOOD FOR EDUCATION AND CHILD NUTRITION... sell the donated commodities at a reasonable market price in the economy where the sale occurs. The...

  16. Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuper, Gerard H.

    This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of marketing

  17. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF VARIETY PRICE PREMIUM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Location price difference was inversely related to distance from the central commodity market, and the seasonal price difference was attributed to storage technique. These show imperfect competitive market behaviour. Peu/drum with characteristics of brown colour, rough skin and large grain size had a price premium than ...

  18. Price, technology, and ore reserves, ch. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, A.L.

    1976-01-01

    Factors determining ore reserves in view of future uses are investigated: existing mining technologies, new techniques, price-technology relationship, effects of the use of different energy sources, exploration techniques, and price change are discussed. The effect of price and technology on reserves of specific commodities is dealth with. A section is also devoted to uranium

  19. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Günther, H.O.; Beek, van P.; Grunow, M.; Habla, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply

  20. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  1. The price level and monetary policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Most central banks are required to or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is which index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action in order to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, for overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

  2. Improving agricultural commodity supply-chain to promote economic activities in rural area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padjung, R.

    2018-05-01

    Long supply chain of agricultural commodities has become concern to governments particularly in large countries such as Indonesia as it causes high price disparity between farm-gate and retailer. Policies to overcome such problem are usually by shortening the chain, by which farmers sell the products directly to retailers. Using an action research in AEDEF (Aceh Economic Development Financing Facilities) Program, conducted in the province of Nangro Aceh Darussalam (NAD) Indonesia, the paper shows that shortening the commodity supply chain is not the best solution to such problem, as it causes loss of jobs in the villages. High price disparity between farm-gate and retailer is not necessary brought about by long supply-chain but by the efficiency of the chain instead. Efficiency of the chain can be improved by creating enabling business environment such that every actors and players work in a fair manner. This can be achieved by transparency in price and quality grade. With development achieved in Information and Communication Technology (ICT), having a good and reliable flow of such information is not difficult. In addition to information flow, the availability and quality of infrastructure to support flow of goods from farm-gate to end-user is of reasonably important.

  3. Commodities, energy and environmental finance

    CERN Document Server

    Ludkovski, Michael; Sircar, Ronnie

    2015-01-01

    This volume is a collection of chapters covering the latest developments in applications of financial mathematics and statistics to topics in energy, commodity financial markets and environmental economics. The research presented is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the Fields Institute Focus Program on Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance in August 2013. The authors include applied mathematicians, economists and industry practitioners, providing for a multi-disciplinary spectrum of perspectives on the subject. The volume consists of four sections: Electricity Markets; Real Options; Trading in Commodity Markets; and Oligopolistic Models for Energy Production. Taken together, the chapters give a comprehensive summary of the current state of the art in quantitative analysis of commodities and energy finance. The topics covered include structural models of electricity markets, financialization of commodities, valuation of commodity real options, game-theory analysis of ...

  4. Effect of Ramping Requirement and Price Cap on Energy Price in a System with High Wind Penetration

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Sebastián; Smeers, Yves; Aguado-Sanchez, Jose Antonio

    2015-01-01

    The European power market is currently retiring or mothballing large capacities of conventional plants, and at the same time incorporating a significant amount of non-dispatchable renewable generation, in particular wind. We analyse the mothballing process (and the resulting system) and study how they are affected by a price cap implemented in the energy only market, and by a possible implementation of ramping products in the system. Sebastian Martin, Yves Smeers, and Jose Aguado. Effect o...

  5. Pricing and Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    -competitive (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However......We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...

  6. Pulp & paper markets cope with high energy prices and growth in Asia : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2005-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince

    2006-01-01

    \\tPulp and paper markets in the UNECE region were influenced by higher energy prices and demand growth in Asia in 2005 and 2006. Important developments in Europe included the launching of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which was followed by substantial increases in electrical energy prices. High global energy prices pushed up costs of production and prices for pulp...

  7. An Empirical Model Of Fractionally Cointegrated Daily High And Low Stock Market Prices

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Dvořáková, S.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2015), s. 193-206 ISSN 0264-9993 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Keywords : fractional cointegration * long memory * range * volatility * daily high and low prices Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.997, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434888.pdf

  8. Radiation processing of food and agricultural commodities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Arun

    2014-01-01

    Reducing post-harvest food losses is becoming increasingly important for sustaining food supplies. Appropriate post-harvest processing, handling, storage and distribution practices are as important as the efforts to increase productivity for improving food security, food safety and international trade in agricultural commodities. Preservation of food by ionizing radiation involves controlled application of energy of ionizing radiation such as gamma rays, X-rays, and accelerated electrons to agricultural commodities, food products and ingredients, for improving their storage life, hygiene and safety. The process employs either gamma rays emitted by radioisotopes such as cobalt-60 or high-energy electrons or X-rays generated from machine sources

  9. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCARCITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND THEIR REAL PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Toth

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available There has been a long running concern about resource depletion. Some argue this concern is misplaced, while others consider it to be an urgent problem requiring immediate action. Economists suggest that long term prices, adjusted for inflation (real prices, provide a useful and effective indicator of resource scarcity. This study tests this hypothesis in consideration of the accepted theory that traditional price deflators, such as the US consumer price index, overestimate inflation-, and accordingly-, are likely to underestimate long term commodity prices. To investigate the usefulness of real prices as an indicator of scarcity, a case study of two metals considered to be expensive (platinum and rhodium and two considered to be relatively inexpensive (copper and lead was used. Real long term price indices were constructed and econometric analysis used to determine the direction and significance of long-term price trends and whether real prices were correlated with other scarcity indicators such as the Reserves-toproduction ratio. The results show, when an appropriate adjustment is made to the deflator, long-run trends in real metal prices are all upward, and there is a significant relationship between the real prices and scarcity indicators, such as the reserves-to-production ratios, for platinum and rhodium, but not for copper and lead. These findings suggest that real prices of platinum and rhodium are more affected by their scarcity, while copper and lead prices are likely to be more dependent on other factors such as high substitutability with other virgin and recycled materials.

  10. The changing dynamics between biofuels and commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bole, T.; Londo, H.M.

    2008-06-01

    The recent development of the biofuel industries coincides with significant increases in prices of basic commodities such as food and feed. Against popular perception, it appears that there is not a straightforward causal relationship between the two; there are a number of factors that determine the level and strength of the impact of the biofuels sector on other commodities. For the case of markets of agricultural raw material these factors include the amount of feedstock claimed by the biofuels industry, its relative purchasing power, the responsiveness of the agricultural sector to price incentives and availability of substitutes. For consumer food markets we must additionally consider the relative share of agricultural input costs in the retail food price and the demand elasticity. Based on the analysis of these factors and estimates of other studies that attempted to quantify the price impacts of biofuels on crop prices, we conclude that the impact of biofuels is relatively small, especially when compared with other causes that triggered the recent price increases. We end the paper with a recommendation for future efforts in curbing food price inflations while keeping ambitious biofuel targets and suggest a shift in focus of the debate around the social costs of biofuels

  11. Factors that Influence the Price of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Rare Earth Elements, and Zn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papp, John F.; Bray, E. Lee; Edelstein, Daniel L.; Fenton, Michael D.; Guberman, David E.; Hedrick, James B.; Jorgenson, John D.; Kuck, Peter H.; Shedd, Kim B.; Tolcin, Amy C.

    2008-01-01

    This report is based on a presentation delivered at The 12th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar, March 17-20, 2008, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., about the factors that influence prices for aluminum, cadmium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, nickel, rare earth elements, and zinc. These are a diverse group of metals that are of interest to the battery recycling industry. Because the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) closely monitors, yet neither buys nor sells, metal commodities, it is an unbiased source of metal price information and analysis. The authors used information about these and other metals collected and published by the USGS (U.S. production, trade, stocks, and prices and world production) and internationally (consumption and stocks by country) from industry organizations, because metal markets are influenced by activities and events over the entire globe. Long-term prices in this report, represented by unit values, were adjusted to 1998 constant dollars to remove the effects of inflation. A previous USGS study in this subject area was 'Economic Drivers of Mineral Supply' by Lorie A. Wagner, Daniel E. Sullivan, and John L. Sznopek (USGS Open File Report 02-335). By seeking a common cause for common behavior of prices among the various metal commodities, the authors found that major factors that influence prices of metal commodities were international events such as wars and recessions, and national events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and economic growth in China, which started its open door policy in the 1970s but did not have significant market impact until the 1990s. Metal commodity prices also responded to commodity-specific events such as tariff or usage changes or mine strikes. It is shown that the prices of aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc are at historic highs, that world stocks are at (or near) historic lows, and that China's consumption of these metals had increased substantially, making it the world

  12. E-cigarette price sensitivity among middle- and high-school students: evidence from monitoring the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesko, Michael F; Huang, Jidong; Johnston, Lloyd D; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2018-05-01

    We estimated associations between e-cigarette prices (both disposable and refill) and e-cigarette use among middle and high-school students in the United States. We also estimated associations between cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. We used regression models to estimate the associations between e-cigarette and cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. In our regression models, we exploited changes in e-cigarette and cigarette prices across four periods of time and across 50 markets. We report the associations as price elasticities. In our primary model, we controlled for socio-demographic characteristics, cigarette prices, tobacco control policies, market fixed effects and year-quarter fixed effects. United States of America. A total of 24 370 middle- and high-school students participating in the Monitoring the Future Survey in years 2014 and 2015. Self-reported e-cigarette use over the last 30 days. Average quarterly cigarette prices, e-cigarette disposable prices and e-cigarette refill prices were constructed from Nielsen retail data (inclusive of excise taxes) for 50 US markets. In a model with market fixed effects, we estimated that a 10% increase in e-cigarette disposable prices is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping among e-cigarette users by approximately 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -17.7 to 1.8%; P = 0.02] and is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping by the full sample by approximately 17.9% (95% CI = -31.5 to -4.2%; P = 0.01). Refill e-cigarette prices were not statistically significant predictors of vaping. Cigarette prices were not associated significantly with e-cigarette use regardless of the e-cigarette price used. However, in a model without market fixed effects, cigarette prices were a statistically significant positive predictor of total e-cigarette use. Higher e-cigarette disposable prices appear to be associated with reduced e-cigarette use among adolescents in the US. © 2017 Society

  13. Mineral commodity profiles: nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Deborah A.

    2004-01-01

    Overview -- Nitrogen (N) is an essential element of life and a part of all animal and plant proteins. As a part of the DNA and RNA molecules, nitrogen is an essential constituent of each individual's genetic blueprint. As an essential element in the chlorophyll molecule, nitrogen is vital to a plant's ability to photosynthesize. Some crop plants, such as alfalfa, peas, peanuts, and soybeans, can convert atmospheric nitrogen into a usable form by a process referred to as 'fixation.' Most of the nitrogen that is available for crop production, however, comes from decomposing animal and plant waste or from commercially produced fertilizers. Commercial fertilizers contain nitrogen in the form of ammonium and/or nitrate or in a form that is quickly converted to the ammonium or nitrate form once the fertilizer is applied to the soil. Ammonia is generally the source of nitrogen in fertilizers. Anhydrous ammonia is commercially produced by reacting nitrogen with hydrogen under high temperatures and pressures. The source of nitrogen is the atmosphere, which is almost 80 percent nitrogen. Hydrogen is derived from a variety of raw materials, which include water, and crude oil, coal, and natural gas hydrocarbons. Nitrogen-based fertilizers are produced from ammonia feedstocks through a variety of chemical processes. Small quantities of nitrates are produced from mineral resources principally in Chile. In 2002, anhydrous ammonia and other nitrogen materials were produced in more than 70 countries. Global ammonia production was 108 million metric tons (Mt) of contained nitrogen. With 28 percent of this total, China was the largest producer of ammonia. Asia contributed 46 percent of total world ammonia production, and countries of the former U.S.S.R. represented 13 percent. North America also produced 13 percent of the total; Western Europe, 9 percent; the Middle East, 7 percent; Central America and South America, 5 percent; Eastern Europe, 3 percent; and Africa and Oceania

  14. Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chien-Chiang; Chiu, Yi-Bin

    2011-01-01

    This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.

  15. Vital signs: oil supplies improving but natural gas tight enough to keep prices high

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunan, D.

    2000-01-01

    Canada's 1999 year-end oil reserves were boosted by 2.1 million barrels by the launch of new oil sands mining projects near Fort McMurray and revisions in two existing operations, offsetting a decline of 3.7 per cent in remaining conventional reserves. Total oil reserves at year end stood at some 11.9 billion barrels, up from 9.8 billion barrels a year earlier. Conventional crude reserves dropped to 4.37 billion barrels. Despite the decline, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) were encouraged by a 70 per cent replacement rate, on production of 441 million barrels of oil, despite low activity resulting from soft prices in early part of 1999. Production from offshore Newfoundland sites amounted to 38.6 million barrels; remaining reserves in the Hibernia and Terra Nova field are estimated at 868 million barrels. Meanwhile, natural gas reserves slipped by about a trillion cubic feet to about 61 trillion cubic feet, reflecting an 83 per cent replacement rate which, however, represented an improvement from 76 per cent in 1998. Reserves replacement in 2000 is expected to improve over 1999 due to improved prices resulting in increased activity in 2000 which is expected to continue into 2001. Despite improvements in replacement, consumers have much to worry about as far as further consumer price increases are concerned. The situation can be traced back to the summer 2000 storage injection period when supplies normally stored for use in the winter were sold instead, to take advantage of high prices. The injection for storage was reduced due largely to continued strong demand from the US electric power generating sector. This situation will continue, barring a dramatic softening of the US economy

  16. Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chien-Chiang, E-mail: cclee@cm.nsysu.edu.tw; Chiu, Yi-Bin

    2011-03-15

    This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.

  17. Conceptual Model of Supply Chain Structure Mapping - A Case of Subsidized LPG Commodity in Yogyakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, Joko; Thoif, Afifuddin; Fitri Alindira, Aulia

    2016-01-01

    — In 2007, the government launched a conversion program of kerosene to LPG by issuing a Presidential Regulation No. 104/2007 on Supply, Distribution and Pricing LPG 3 Kg. Article 2 on the regulation says that setting the supply, distribution, and pricing of LPG 3 Kg include planning an annual sales volume of enterprises, the reference price and the retail price and conditions of export and import of LPG 3 Kg in order to reduce subsidies Kerosene especially to divert the use of kerosene according to government policy. In principle, the purpose of this policy is to reduce energy subsidies on commodities, especially Kerosene. Although the government claimed the conversion program is success, there are few problems arising from conversion program. In 2014, many scarcity and high price of LPG 3 Kg were reported. In this case, Pertamina was given full authority to manage all supply chain and distribution. Because the root of the problem of scarcity that occurred in the supply chain system has not been explained, the proposed solutions will also be partial and not comprehensive. Thus, this research will build a structural map of the causes of supply chain system LPG 3 Kg, as well as providing a comprehensive picture of system dynamics of LPG 3 Kg supply chain system which applied in Indonesia. And the result is expected as in form of Causal Loop Diagram of supply chain system.

  18. Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Deb, Sidart [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Asokkumar, Aarthi [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Hassanzadeh, Mohammad [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Aarabali, Amirsaman [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States)

    2018-05-11

    Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.

  19. Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boisclair

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Tobacco taxation is an essential component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. However, to fully realize the benefits it is vital to understand the impact of increased taxes among high-risk subpopulations. Are they influenced to the same extent as the general population? Do they need additional measures to influence smoking behavior? The objectives of this study were to synthesize the evidence regarding differential effects of taxation and price on smoking in: youth, young adults, persons of low socio-economic status, with dual diagnoses, heavy/long-term smokers, and Aboriginal people. Using a better practices approach, a knowledge synthesis was conducted using a systematic review of the literature and an expert advisory panel. Experts were involved in developing the study plan, discussing findings, developing policy recommendations, and identifying priorities for future research. Most studies found that raising cigarette prices through increased taxes is a highly effective measure for reducing smoking among youth, young adults, and persons of low socioeconomic status. However, there is a striking lack of evidence about the impact of increasing cigarette prices on smoking behavior in heavy/long-term smokers, persons with a dual diagnosis and Aboriginals. Given their high prevalence of smoking, urgent attention is needed to develop effective policies for the six subpopulations reviewed. These findings will be of value to policy-makers and researchers in their efforts to improve the effectiveness of tobacco control measures, especially with subpopulations at most risk. Although specific studies are needed, tobacco taxation is a key policy measure for driving success.

  20. Effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on smoking behavior in high risk populations: a knowledge synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bader, Pearl; Boisclair, David; Ferrence, Roberta

    2011-11-01

    Tobacco taxation is an essential component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. However, to fully realize the benefits it is vital to understand the impact of increased taxes among high-risk subpopulations. Are they influenced to the same extent as the general population? Do they need additional measures to influence smoking behavior? The objectives of this study were to synthesize the evidence regarding differential effects of taxation and price on smoking in: youth, young adults, persons of low socio-economic status, with dual diagnoses, heavy/long-term smokers, and Aboriginal people. Using a better practices approach, a knowledge synthesis was conducted using a systematic review of the literature and an expert advisory panel. Experts were involved in developing the study plan, discussing findings, developing policy recommendations, and identifying priorities for future research. Most studies found that raising cigarette prices through increased taxes is a highly effective measure for reducing smoking among youth, young adults, and persons of low socioeconomic status. However, there is a striking lack of evidence about the impact of increasing cigarette prices on smoking behavior in heavy/long-term smokers, persons with a dual diagnosis and Aboriginals. Given their high prevalence of smoking, urgent attention is needed to develop effective policies for the six subpopulations reviewed. These findings will be of value to policy-makers and researchers in their efforts to improve the effectiveness of tobacco control measures, especially with subpopulations at most risk. Although specific studies are needed, tobacco taxation is a key policy measure for driving success.

  1. Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lya Aklimawati; Teguh Wahyudi

    2013-01-01

    High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1)  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2) ...

  2. Fortum Oil and Gas 2000: Exceptionally high price of crude oil and strong refining margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ropponen, V.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Fortum intends to be an active player in the structural reorganization of the oil business by utilizing its niche position in oil refining. Fortum produces sophisticated motor fuel components, which it uses in its reformulated gasolines and sells and exports to other oil companies, even to highly demanding markets in California. The increase in the price of crude oil considerably improved the results of Oil and Gas Upstream. Similarly, an improvement in the refining margin, as well as profitable shipping operations and a strong demand for gasoline components, boosted the results of Oil Refining and Marketing. (orig.)

  3. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  4. Introduction and Utilization of High Priced HCV Medicines across Europe; Implications for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Winnie; Ibáñez, Cristina; Frisk, Pia; Bak Pedersen, Hanne; Alkan, Ali; Vella Bonanno, Patricia; Brkičić, Ljiljana S.; Bucsics, Anna; Dedet, Guillaume; Eriksen, Jaran; Fadare, Joseph O.; Fürst, Jurij; Gallego, Gisselle; Godói, Isabella P.; Guerra Júnior, Augusto A.; Gürsöz, Hakkı; Jan, Saira; Jones, Jan; Joppi, Roberta; Kerman, Saim; Laius, Ott; Madzikwa, Newman; Magnússon, Einar; Maticic, Mojca; Markovic-Pekovic, Vanda; Massele, Amos; Ogunleye, Olayinka; O'Leary, Aisling; Piessnegger, Jutta; Sermet, Catherine; Simoens, Steven; Tiroyakgosi, Celda; Truter, Ilse; Thyberg, Magnus; Tomekova, Kristina; Wladysiuk, Magdalena; Vandoros, Sotiris; Vural, Elif H.; Zara, Corinne; Godman, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Background: Infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a widespread transmittable disease with a diagnosed prevalence of 2.0%. Fortunately, it is now curable in most patients. Sales of medicines to treat HCV infection grew 2.7% per year between 2004 and 2011, enhanced by the launch of the protease inhibitors (PIs) boceprevir (BCV) and telaprevir (TVR) in addition to ribavirin and pegylated interferon (pegIFN). Costs will continue to rise with new treatments including sofosbuvir, which now include interferon free regimens. Objective: Assess the uptake of BCV and TVR across Europe from a health authority perspective to offer future guidance on dealing with new high cost medicines. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of medicines to treat HCV (pegIFN, ribavirin, BCV and TVR) among European countries from 2008 to 2013. Utilization measured in defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 patients/quarter (DIQs) and expenditure in Euros/DDD. Health authority activities to influence treatments categorized using the 4E methodology (Education, Engineering, Economics and Enforcement). Results: Similar uptake of BCV and TVR among European countries and regions, ranging from 0.5 DIQ in Denmark, Netherlands and Slovenia to 1.5 DIQ in Tayside and Catalonia in 2013. However, different utilization of the new PIs vs. ribavirin indicates differences in dual vs. triple therapy, which is down to factors including physician preference and genotypes. Reimbursed prices for BCV and TVR were comparable across countries. Conclusion: There was reasonable consistency in the utilization of BCV and TVR among European countries in comparison with other high priced medicines. This may reflect the social demand to limit the transmission of HCV. However, the situation is changing with new curative medicines for HCV genotype 1 (GT1) with potentially an appreciable budget impact. These concerns have resulted in different prices across countries, with their impact on budgets and patient outcomes

  5. Introduction and utilisation of high priced HCV medicines across Europe; implications for the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winnie de Bruijn

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV is a widespread transmittable disease with a diagnosed prevalence of 2.0%. Fortunately, it is now curable in most patients. Sales of medicines to treat HCV infection grew 2.7% per year between 2004 and 2011, enhanced by the launch of the protease inhibitors (PIs boceprevir (BCV and telaprevir (TVR in addition to ribavirin and pegylated interferon (pegIFN. Costs will continue to rise with new treatments including sofosbuvir, which now include interferon free regimens. Objective: Assess the uptake of BCV and TVR across Europe from a health authority perspective to offer future guidance on dealing with new high cost medicines. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of medicines to treat HCV (pegIFN, ribavirin, BCV and TVR among European countries from 2008 to 2013. Utilisation measured in defined daily doses (DDDs/ 1000 patients/ quarter (DIQs and expenditure in Euros/ DDD. Health authority activities to influence treatments categorised using the 4E methodology (Education, Engineering, Economics and Enforcement. Results: Similar uptake of BCV and TVR among European countries and regions, ranging from 0.5 DIQ in Denmark, Netherlands and Slovenia to 1.5 DIQ in Tayside and Catalonia in 2013. However, different utilisation of the new PIs versus ribavirin indicates differences in dual versus triple therapy, which is down to factors including physician preference and genotypes. Reimbursed prices for BCV and TVR were comparable across countries. Conclusion: There was reasonable consistency in the utilisation of BCV and TVR among European countries in comparison with other high priced medicines. This may reflect the social demand to limit the transmission of HCV. However, the situation is changing with new curative medicines for HCV genotype 1 (GT1 with potentially an appreciable budget impact. These concerns have resulted in different prices negotiations across countries, with their impact

  6. Dynamics of a durable commodity market involving trade at disequilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchuk, A.; Puu, T.

    2018-05-01

    The present work considers a simple model of a durable commodity market involving two agents who trade stocks of two different types. Stock commodities, in contrast to flow commodities, remain on the market from period to period and, consequently, there is neither unique demand function nor unique supply function exists. We also set up exact conditions for trade at disequilibrium, the issue being usually neglected, though a fact of reality. The induced iterative system has infinite number of fixed points and path dependent dynamics. We show that a typical orbit is either attracted to one of the fixed points or eventually sticks at a no-trade point. For the latter the stock distribution always remains the same while the price displays periodic or chaotic oscillations.

  7. Quarterly Web Interfaced Commodity Reporting

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — QWICR is a secure, online Title II commodity reporting system accessible to USAID Missions, PVO Cooperating Sponsors and Food for Peace Officers. QWICR provides PVO...

  8. 77 FR 25319 - Commodity Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-27

    ..., merchants, SDs, commodity funds, futures industry organizations, academics and think tanks, a U.S... particular (i.e., optionality in a contract settling by physical delivery that is used to meet varying demand...

  9. Food and Feed Commodity Vocabulary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food and Feed Vocabulary was developed to consolidate all the major OPP Commodity Vocabularies into one standardized vocabulary. The EPA-preferred term is the only term that can be used in setting tolerances.

  10. From quantum mechanics to finance: Microfoundations for jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in diffusion price processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Christof

    2017-03-01

    We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior and provide microfoundations. After we link the endogenous agent behavior to price dynamics we establish the circumstances under which the dynamics converge to an Itô-diffusion price processes in the large market limit.

  11. Reconciling biofuels, sustainability and commodities demand. Pitfalls and policy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uslu, A.; Bole, T.; Londo, M.; Pelkmans, L.; Berndes, G.; Prieler, S.; Fischer, G.; Cueste Cabal, H.

    2010-06-01

    Increasing fossil fuel prices, energy security considerations and environmental concerns, particularly concerning climate change, have motivated countries to explore alternative energy sources including biofuels. Global demand for biofuels has been rising rapidly due to biofuel support policies established in many countries. However, proposed strong links between biofuels demand and recent years' high food commodity prices, and notions that increasing biofuels production might bring about serious negative environmental impacts, in particularly associated with the land use change to biofuel crops, have shifted public enthusiasm about biofuels. In this context, the ELOBIO project aims at shedding further light to these aspects of biofuel expansion by collecting and reviewing the available data, and also developing strategies to decrease negative effects of biofuels while enabling their positive contribution to climate change, security of supply and rural development. ELOBIO considers aspects associated with both 1st and 2nd generation biofuels, hence analyses effects on both agricultural commodity markets and lignocellulosic markets. This project, funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe programme, consists of a review of current experiences with biofuels and other renewable energy policies and their impacts on other markets, iterative stakeholder-supported development of low-disturbing biofuels policies, model supported assessment of these policies' impacts on food, feed and lignocellulosic markets, and finally an assessment of the effects of selected optimal policies on biofuels costs and potentials. Results of the ELOBIO study show that rapid biofuel deployment without careful monitoring of consequences and implementation of mitigating measures risks leading to negative consequences. Implementing ambitious global biofuel targets for 2020, based on current 1st generation technologies, can push international agricultural commodity prices upwards and increase crop

  12. Organized Retailing of Horticultural Commodities

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Piyush Kumar; Thomas, Sujo

    2012-01-01

    Owing to rapid urbanization and changing consumption patterns, more and more retailers are trying to put their best efforts to discover new avenues of success when it comes to the sales of horticultural commodities. There are several Indian companies as well as foreign companies who have been focusing all their energies to succeed in the organized retail sector of Indian horticulture commodities. The Indian retail industry is worth $470 million and organized retail stands at $26 million which...

  13. Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

  14. Mineral commodity profiles: Silver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterman, W.C.; Hilliard, Henry E.

    2005-01-01

    United States, about 30 companies accounted for more than 90 percent of the silver fabricated. The consumption of silver for all fabrication uses is expected to grow slowly through the decade ending in 2010 at about 1.3 percent per year for the world and 2.4 percent per year for the United States. World and U.S. reserves and reserve bases are more than adequate to satisfy the demand for newly mined silver through 2010. The other components of supply will be silver recovered from scrap, silver from industrial stocks, and silver bullion that is sold into the market from commodity exchange and private stocks.

  15. Petroleum price; Prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurice, J

    2001-07-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  16. MICROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF WATER PRICES

    OpenAIRE

    Goić, Srećko

    2004-01-01

    Water as a specific commodity, and water supply as a specific industry, represent a very interesting field for microeconomic analysis. Starting from the fact that in the market economy most of microeconomic categories and relations are turning around the price, this paper is attempting to give a comprehensive analysis of key microeconomic determinants of water prices. Establishing that the water market is a monopolistic one, relations between supply and demand have been analyzed, as well a...

  17. Uma avaliação da volatilidade dos preços da soja no mercado internacional com dados de alta frequência An evaluation of the volatility of soybeans prices in the international market using high frequency data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Domingues Simões

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho foram avaliados os ajustes de cinco modelos para previsão da variância, utilizando-se uma série de preços de soja, uma commodity negociada na bolsa de mercadorias de Chicago (CBOT, com dados de alta frequência. Os modelos utilizados foram do tipo GARCH, FIGARCH e ARFIMA. Foi possível observar características desta série de preços de uma commodity negociada globalmente que se apresentaram inteiramente diferentes daquelas de ativos financeiros anteriormente estudados, possivelmente em virtude da característica contínua dos preços observados, induzida pela sua negociação global independente de pregões com início e fim. Foi possível concluir que a série de dados de alta frequência encerra informações adicionais às séries de dados diários, também no caso estudado de preços da soja, e que o tradicional modelo GARCH(1,1 tem um bom desempenho também no caso dos dados de alta frequência, assim como aqueles da família ARFIMA. Recomenda-se mais investigação para o caso dos modelos FIGARCH, procurando um melhor ajuste.In the present study, five volatility prediction models were evaluated using a series of soybeans prices, a commodity traded in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, using high-frequency data. The models used belonged to the GARCH, FIGARCH and ARFIMA families. It was possible to observe entirely different characteristics of this commodity price series, which is negotiated on a global scale, from those of the financial assets previously studied, possibly due to the continuity of the price series studied allowed by the global negotiation nature of this trade, fully independent of daily exchange markets subject to opening and closing times. It was possible to conclude that the high-frequency price data do provide additional information to the traditional daily time series, also in the case of soybeans, and that the traditional GARCH(1,1 model also has good performance on the high-frequency price data just

  18. Consequences of long-term power outages and high electricity prices lasting for months

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Several areas in the world have experienced electricity outages for longer periods of time, but the consequences of these are sparsely documented. There is a need for further analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of the outages. In addition to KILE (Quality adjusted revenue framework for un supplied energy) costs one has to take into account that the costs often increase proportionally with the durance of the outage, and that KILE tariffs do not reflect lost consumer's surplus for products that are not produced during an outage. A good example is the public underground transport, where the company's economical loss can be significantly smaller than the loss of utility value for the travellers. If the authorities act with reasonability it is difficult to see that periods with very high prices represent a big problem. The most important problems are related to diffused effects, especially for households with a weak economy. These problems can be solved with improved contractual forms (price guarantees) or by transfers to the households, without weakening the incentives for electricity economising (ml)

  19. AN OVERVIEW OF MAJOR SOURCES OF DATA AND ANALYSES RELATING TO PHYSICAL FUNDAMENTALS IN INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Pilar Fajarnes

    2011-01-01

    The debate on whether price movements in commodity markets are determined by changes in physical supply and demand fundamentals or by the speculative effects of financial investors seems to find some element of agreement on one particular point: the need for increased transparency and improved information on futures markets and physical commodity markets. This discussion paper provides an assessment of the current situation with regard to availability of information on physical commodity mark...

  20. Determinants of contractor pricing strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Moses, O. Douglas

    1988-01-01

    This paper investigates pricing strategies used by major defense contractors. Two pricing strategies are identified and discussed: penetration, which calls for a relatively low initial price followed by little reduction in price over time, and skimming, which calls for a relatively high initial price coupled with greater reduction in price over time. It is argued that contractor pricing strategy will depend on features of the defense program under consideration and featur...

  1. Alcohol taxes' contribution to prices in high and middle-income countries: Data from the International Alcohol Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wall, Martin; Casswell, Sally; Callinan, Sarah; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Viet Cuong, Pham; Gray-Phillip, Gaile; Parry, Charles

    2017-11-22

    Taxation is increasingly being used as an effective means of influencing behaviour in relation to harmful products. In this paper we use data from six participating countries of the International Alcohol Control Study to examine and evaluate their comparative prices and tax regimes. We calculate taxes and prices for three high-income and three middle-income countries. The data are drawn from the International Alcohol Control survey and from the Alcohol Environment Protocol. Tax systems are described and then the rates of tax on key products presented. Comparisons are made using the Purchasing Power Parity rates. The price and purchase data from each country's International Alcohol Control survey is then used to calculate the mean percentage of retail price paid in tax weighted by actual consumption. Both ad valorem and specific per unit of alcohol taxation systems are represented among the six countries. The prices differ widely between countries even though presented in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. The percentage of tax in the final price also varies widely but is much lower than the 75% set by the World Health Organization as a goal for tobacco tax. There is considerable variation in tax systems and prices across countries. There is scope to increase taxation and this analysis provides comparable data, including the percentage of tax in final price, from some middle and high-income countries for consideration in policy discussion. © 2017 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  2. 29 CFR 780.114 - Wild commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.114 Wild commodities. Employees engaged in the gathering or harvesting of wild commodities such as mosses, wild rice, burls and laurel plants, the trapping of wild... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Wild commodities. 780.114 Section 780.114 Labor Regulations...

  3. 7 CFR 250.57 - Commodity schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity schools. 250.57 Section 250.57 Agriculture... TERRITORIES AND POSSESSIONS AND AREAS UNDER ITS JURISDICTION National School Lunch Program (NSLP) and Other Child Nutrition Programs § 250.57 Commodity schools. (a) Categorization of commodity schools. Commodity...

  4. A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsuk Kwak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

  5. The price of crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtiari, A.M.S.

    1999-01-01

    The price of crude oil is among the most important prices quoted daily across the world - which is not surprising, since crude oil is the most widely used source of energy worldwide, as well as being a unique commodity. When petroleum burst onto the world stage in 1859, its price first went through some initial gyrations (1860-70), before settling in the $1.00 - 2.00 per barrel range (barring a few exceptions) for a full century. Then, the price underwent two 'shocks' (1973 and 1980), followed by the 'counter-shock' of 1986. Thereafter, the price entered the relative stability of the $15 - 20 /b consensus, where it lingered until recently. Some day, there is bound to be a fresh paradigm of 'insufficient oil reserves', thus ushering in a new era for oil prices. Taking into consideration available data on reserves and expert analysis, it would seem that that day may be years rather than decades away

  6. Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Broll

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

  7. OPEC wants to keep the oil price at a high level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krajka, D.

    2005-01-01

    Because the rest of the world has learnt to deal with expensive petroleum, the OPEC has decided to change its range of prices. The price of the oil barrel has only a weak impact on the world economy: in 2004 the world economy shows a 5% growth while the barrel price has increased of 30% and has exceeded the 50$ limit. In order to continue to control the prices, the OPEC has announced its intention of doubling its potential production capacities by the end of 2005 in order to fulfill the demand variations. (J.S.)

  8. Research on the Risk Measurement for the Futures Market of Bulk Commodity – Taking the silver futures as the example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Du Yating

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The futures transaction of bulk commodity has played an important role since China became the global manufacturing center. Taking the commodity futures market in Shanghai as the research objective, this article selects the price of silver futures, uses GARCH-VaR and Stress Testing to measure the risk tolerance of the market. The research result shows the silver price is fluctuated within the scope specified by the market and won't influence the stable operation of futures market.

  9. The Commodity Form of Safety Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Finkelstein

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The production of safety information is deemed a vital resource to protect human lives at the work site. The injury rate, lost days, incapacity rate, and fatality rate, are key indicators to prop up labour risk awareness and identify job hazards. However, safety information gets highly distorted because it does not only measure risk but serves as a means of exchange. It determines the amount of money to be swapped between Workers’ Compensation Boards and their client corporations. Moreover, as a depository of exchange value, safety information tends to exert pressure over social reality rather than just being a passive reflection of it. This paper discloses the commodity form of safety information. Based on a political economy of information framework, it identifies, describes, and analyses the safety information commodity in its active role of organizing safety and labour health.

  10. Commodity team motivation and performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  11. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  12. The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radukić Snežana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the Republic of Serbia, food accounts for a significant share in the consumer price index through which the inflation is statistically expressed. Therefore, in considerations of the basic factors of increase in the general price level, a special emphasis is placed on the specific features of the market of agricultural-food products. The aim of this research is to peruse the effect of the characteristics of the food market in Serbia on the inflation rate. High volatility of food prices is present because of the instability of this market, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations of supply and the effect of natural factors. Bearing in mind that the increase in food prices is the main determinant of the increase in the inflation rate, the indirect state control is very important so as to maintain price stability. Special importance is attached to the following instruments of economic policy: commodity reserves, storage policy, and fiscal and foreign trade policy.

  13. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-27

    Eurocurrency data set [129] collected from Forex database . Table 10: Estimates m̂k, βm̂k,k, µm̂k,k, δm̂k,k, σm̂k,k, γm̂k,k for U. S. Treasury Bill...U. S. Eurocurrency rateUS dollar Eurocurrency data set January 1990-December 2004, Forex Database . [130] U. S. Energy Information Administration

  14. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Gunther, H.O.; van Beek, P.

    2009-01-01

    decisions by volume and value throughout the value chain to ensure profitability. Contract and spot demand differentiation with volatile and uncertain spot prices, spot sales quantity flexibility, spot sales price-quantity functions and variable raw material consumption rates in production are problem...... quantity, price and supply decisions throughout the value chain. A two-phase optimization approach supports robust planning ensuring minimum profitability even in case of worst-case spot sales price scenarios. Model evaluations with industry case data demonstrate the impact of elasticities, variable raw......We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply...

  15. A High-Dimensional, Multivariate Copula Approach to Modeling Multivariate Agricultural Price Relationships and Tail Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan Chi; Barry Goodwin

    2012-01-01

    Spatial and temporal relationships among agricultural prices have been an important topic of applied research for many years. Such research is used to investigate the performance of markets and to examine linkages up and down the marketing chain. This research has empirically evaluated price linkages by using correlation and regression models and, later, linear and...

  16. Hedonic analysis of ultra-high-temperature-treated milk prices in Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bimbo, Francesco; Bonanno, Alessandro; Liu, Xuan; Viscecchia, Rosaria

    2016-01-01

    The Italian market for UHT milk has been growing thanks to both consumers' interest in products with an extended shelf life and to the lower prices of these products compared with refrigerated, pasteurized milk. However, because the lower prices of UHT milk can hinder producers' margins,

  17. Commodity hardware and software summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolbers, S.

    1997-04-01

    A review is given of the talks and papers presented in the Commodity Hardware and Software Session at the CHEP97 conference. An examination of the trends leading to the consideration of PC's for HEP is given, and a status of the work that is being done at various HEP labs and Universities is given

  18. Impact assessment of commodity standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, Ruerd

    2017-01-01

    Voluntary commodity standards are widely used to enhance the performance of tropical agro-food chains and to support the welfare and sustainability of smallholder farmers. Different methods and approaches are used to assess the effectiveness and impact of these certification schemes at

  19. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List. The...

  20. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term net market price means— (a) except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the sales price, or...

  1. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a producer...

  2. Price and inventory dynamics in petroleum product markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, T.J.; Heo, Eunnyeong

    2000-01-01

    Unlike many studies of commodity inventory behavior, this paper estimates a model with endogenous spot and forward prices, inventories, production, and net imports. Our application involves markets for refined petroleum products in the United States. Our model is built around the supply and demand for storage. We estimate the model using Generalized Method of Moments and perform dynamic, simultaneous simulations to estimate the impacts of supply and demand shocks. Supply curves for the industry are inelastic and upward sloping. High inventory levels depress prices. Inventories fall in response to higher sales, consistent with production smoothing. Under higher input prices, refiners reduce their stocks of crude oil but increase their product inventories, consistent with cost smoothing. In some cases, imports of products are more variable than production or inventories. 25 refs

  3. Achieving high value care for all and the perverse incentives of 340B price agreements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, Melanie D; Campbell, Jonathan D; McQueen, R Brett

    2018-04-01

    Section 340B of the Public Health Service Act requires drug manufacturers to enter into price agreements with the Department of Health and Human Services. These agreements result in variation in the price paid to acquire a drug by sector, which complicates the price used in cost-effectiveness analyses. We describe the transactions and sectors in a 340B agreement using a multiple sclerosis drug. Cost-effectiveness estimates were calculated for the drug using drug prices from the manufacturer and payer perspective. We found the amount paid to the manufacturer (340B price) was a good value ($118,256 per quality-adjusted life-year); however, from the payer drug cost perspective, good value ($196,683 per quality-adjusted life-year) was not achieved. Given that emerging value frameworks incorporate cost-effectiveness, these price variations may have downstream negative consequences, including inaccurate coverage and reimbursement policy recommendations. Upcoming policy changes to the 340B program should incentivize pricing schemes hinged on transparency and value.

  4. Importance of Electricity Transport Pricing in Liberalised Energy Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlgemuth, N.

    2001-01-01

    Electricity has traditionally been supplied by vertically integrated companies providing generation, transmission and distribution services. Consumers have purchased a bundled commodity - delivered electricity - and there has been no need to price the components individually. This is no longer the case in competitive and unbundled electricity markets. One of the outstanding issues in the restructuring of the electricity markets is the way in which transmission costs are translated into tariffs. The efforts to create a single European electricity market are difficult to reconcile due to different national network pricing approaches. The European Commission's draft regulation on conditions for access to the network for cross-border exchanges of electricity sets general principles for the pricing of international electricity exchanges. Nodal pricing provides incentives for an efficient use of generation and transmission assets. Experience shows that nodal pricing is workable, and its use may be expected to increase progressively. Postage stamp pricing does not generally provide adequate incentives for efficiency. However, inefficiencies may be small under certain conditions, and postage stamp pricing has the advantage of being relatively transparent and easy to implement. This paper presents an overview of objectives related to an effective design of transmission pricing approaches, of transmission pricing models and presents recent developments in Europe in this respect. Due to the great number of institutional designs of electricity market organisations, it will be difficult to design and implement a model of cross-border transmission pricing that results in a high degree of non-discriminatory international competition in electricity markets, a key objective of the Electricity Directive.(author)

  5. Relationship of mother and child food purchases as a function of price: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Handley, Elizabeth A; Roemmich, James N; Paluch, Rocco A

    2006-07-01

    To our knowledge, there are no data on parental influences on child purchasing behavior of healthy or unhealthy foods. Mothers and children in ten families were given 5.00 US dollars to purchase portions of preferred fruits/vegetables and high energy-dense snack foods for each of ten trials of price manipulations. For five of the trials the price of the fruit/vegetable increased in price from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars (in 0.50 US dollar increments), while the price of the energy-dense snack food remained constant at 1.00 US dollar. For the remaining five trials, the commodity that previously rose in price remained constant at 1.00 US dollars and the other commodity varied from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars. Same-price elasticity was shown for both the child and parent purchases, and parent purchases were significantly related to child purchases of both healthy (regression estimate = 0.46, p snack food items were positively related to family socioeconomic status, and negatively related to child age. These results indicate that parental food choice and purchasing behaviors may play a role in the development of children's purchasing of both healthy and unhealthy foods.

  6. Locational Pricing to Mitigate Voltage Problems Caused by High PV Penetration

    OpenAIRE

    Sam Weckx; Reinhilde D'hulst; Johan Driesen

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a locational marginal pricing algorithm is proposed to control the voltage in unbalanced distribution grids. The increasing amount of photovoltaic (PV) generation installed in the grid may cause the voltage to rise to unacceptable levels during periods of low consumption. With locational prices, the distribution system operator can steer the reactive power consumption and active power curtailment of PV panels to guarantee a safe network operation. Flexible loads also respond to...

  7. 1993 commodity flow survey : state summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-06-01

    This report summarizes the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) state reports released between February 1996 and July 1996 by the Bureau of the Census and the 1993 Commodity Flow Survey: Preliminary Observations by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Inf...

  8. Is women's labor a commodity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Elizabeth S

    1990-01-01

    ...A commercial surrogate mother is anyone who is paid money to bear a child for other people and terminate her parental rights, so that the others may raise the child as exclusively their own. The growth of commercial surrogacy has raised with new urgency a class of concerns regarding the proper scope of the market. Some critics have objected to commercial surrogacy on the ground that it improperly treats children and women's reproductive capacities as commodities. The prospect of reducing children to consumer durables and women to baby factories surely inspires revulsion. But are there good reasons behind the revulsion? And is this an accurate description of what commercial surrogacy implies? This article offers a theory about what things are properly regarded as commodities which supports the claim that commercial surrogacy constitutes an unconscionable commodification of children and of women's reproductive capacities.

  9. Contribution of price/expenditure factors of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011: A decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Zengming; Zhao, Tao

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Analysis about energy prices and the residential expenditure on energy in China. • Though the prices of energy declined, the price effect was negative. • The effect of price was the strongest restraining contribution. • Discussion on the proportion of energy expenditure in residential incomes. - Abstract: Since the establishment of the market economy in 1993, the residential consumption of commodities, including energy, has been highly influenced by prices in China. However, the contribution of the factors related to prices in residential energy consumption is relatively unexplored. This paper extends the KAYA identity with price and expenditure factors and then applies the LMDI method to a decomposition of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011. Our results show the following: (1) Though the prices of a majority of residential energy sources in China declined, the effect of energy prices restrained residential energy consumption because the expenditure structure changed during the period. (2) During the research period, the urban energy expenditure proportion experienced two progresses of rising and falling, and the rural proportion, which was stable before 2002, sharply increased. (3) The energy consumption intensity effect, which is the negative of the average energy price effect, contributed to most of the decrease in energy consumption, whereas residential income played a key role in the growth of consumption. According to the conclusions, we suggest further marketization and deregulation of energy prices, the promotion of advanced energy types and guidance for better energy consumption patterns

  10. Commodity futures and market efficiency

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 1 (2014), s. 50-57 ISSN 0140-9883 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : commodities * efficiency * entropy * long-term memory * fractal dimension Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.708, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kristoufek-0420811.pdf

  11. Aromatherapy Oils: Commodities, Materials, Essences

    OpenAIRE

    Barcan, Ruth

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the essential oils that are the central tools of aromatherapy and uses them as a case study for different approaches to material culture. It considers the conceptual and political implications of thinking of essential oils as, in turn, commodities, materials and essences. I argue that both cultural studies and aromatherapy have something to learn from each other. Classic materialist approaches might do well to focus more attention on the material properties and effects o...

  12. The NOC-IOC dynamic in a high-price world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abraham, K.S.

    2008-01-01

    National oil corporations (NOCs) currently control more than two-thirds of global petroleum reserves, but do not operate on current market principles. NOCs are now expanding by leveraging control over reserves dominating their home markets. International oil corporations (IOC) are shut out of most NOC home territories, and are also hampered by moratoria in free market countries. This presentation examined differences between IOCs and NOCs. While IOCs can capitalize on high oil prices by revoking moratoria on onshore and offshore oil and gas development in North America, 9 national oil companies control 71 per cent of claimed, proven oil reserves. NOC objectives are to improve efficiency and ensure economic development. IOC objectives are to access reserves, and develop investment incentives that avoid resource nationalization. Oil and gas investment is now shifting towards developing countries. It is estimated that 62 per cent of upstream investment by 2030 will be in non-OECD countries. Approximately 50 per cent of new pipeline capacity will be in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. IOC liquids production rates are falling. Exploration efforts are being met with mixed results. It was concluded that NOC objectives will shape global energy security. NOCs will benefit by adopting international account and reporting standards. The author emphasized that IOCs must find ways to remain relevant as NOC control and competitiveness increases. tabs., figs

  13. Investing today in energy for tomorrow. U.S. civilian nuclear industry: high-level oversight. Oil prices: getting close to the psychological threshold. The future of biofuels in question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2008-01-01

    This issue of Alternatives newsletter features 4 main articles dealing with: 1 - Investing today in energy for tomorrow: Whether to increase or to replace generating capacity, the amount of investment needed in energy infrastructure to meet rising demand has been identified, but many obstacles must be overcome before they become a reality. A status report and personal perspective from Pierre Gadonneix, CEO of EDF, in the 'Expert opinion' section. 2 - U.S. civilian nuclear industry - high-level oversight: The approaches are clearly different, but the licensing processes for nuclear reactor development and operation in France and the United States are both strictly regulated. Alternatives delves further. 3 - Oil prices - getting close to the psychological threshold: Are we going to stop using oil sooner rather than later if crude prices keep going up? European commodities expert Philippe Chalmin shares his opinion. 4 - The future of biofuels in question In many countries, biofuels are seen as an alternative to oil. Still, farmland is not expandable forever and the economics of biofuels deserve some scrutiny

  14. Founding Digital Currency on Imprecise Commodity

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Zimu; Xu, Zhiwei

    2015-01-01

    Current digital currency schemes provide instantaneous exchange on precise commodity, in which "precise" means a buyer can possibly verify the function of the commodity without error. However, imprecise commodities, e.g. statistical data, with error existing are abundant in digital world. Existing digital currency schemes do not offer a mechanism to help the buyer for payment decision on precision of commodity, which may lead the buyer to a dilemma between having to buy and being unconfident....

  15. Market risk in commodity markets. A VaR approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giot, Pierre [Department of Business Administration and CEREFIM at University of Namur, Rempart de la Vierge, 8, 5000 Namur (Belgium); Laurent, Sebastien [Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) at Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain (Belgium)

    2003-09-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners.

  16. Market risk in commodity markets. A VaR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giot, Pierre; Laurent, Sebastien

    2003-01-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners

  17. Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giot, P.

    2003-01-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners. (author)

  18. Business trends report 2006. High oil prices ensure high activity level; What are the challenges?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The first in a series of annual business trends reports which The Norwegian Oil Industry Association (OLF) has decided to publish. The report highlights features in the development of the global economy and the energy markets, and presents an analysis of the level of activity on the Norwegian Shelf through to 2010. It also gives a status report and outlines the challenges that lie within three important areas for the oil industry: the relationship with the external environment, health, safety and working environment, and personnel and competence requirements within the industry. The main message contained in the report is summarised as follows: 'While prospects for the immediate future look good, we foresee a lack of new, important and technically challenging projects in the longer term. Discoveries made on the Norwegian Shelf during recent years have been small. Exploration activity must be intensified and its results must be improved. The most important and effective stimulus in this connection is new prospective exploration acreage. The Comprehensive Management Plan for Lofoten and the Barents Sea will be revised in 2010. By that time the knowledge gaps in the plan have to be filled so that the decision-making basis is as good as possible. Even though the level of activity looks as if it will continue to be high in the medium term, we have no time to lose.' Environmental status and challenges are briefly reviewed, as well as the industry's future recruitment challenges (author) (ml)

  19. "Photographing money" task pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhongxiang

    2018-05-01

    "Photographing money" [1]is a self-service model under the mobile Internet. The task pricing is reasonable, related to the success of the commodity inspection. First of all, we analyzed the position of the mission and the membership, and introduced the factor of membership density, considering the influence of the number of members around the mission on the pricing. Multivariate regression of task location and membership density using MATLAB to establish the mathematical model of task pricing. At the same time, we can see from the life experience that membership reputation and the intensity of the task will also affect the pricing, and the data of the task success point is more reliable. Therefore, the successful point of the task is selected, and its reputation, task density, membership density and Multiple regression of task positions, according to which a nhew task pricing program. Finally, an objective evaluation is given of the advantages and disadvantages of the established model and solution method, and the improved method is pointed out.

  20. Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis Africana (guill. ... select five markets based on the presence of traders selling the commodity in the markets ... T- test result showed that Prosopis africana seed trade is profitable and ...

  1. Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Girardi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

  2. 17 CFR 270.22c-1 - Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase. 270.22c-1 Section 270.22c-1 Commodity and Securities... 1940 § 270.22c-1 Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase. (a) No...

  3. The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

  4. Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

  5. High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2017-09-21

    Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Delivered Pricing, FOB Pricing, and Collusion in Spatial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Paz Espinosa

    1992-01-01

    This article examines price discrimination and collusion in spatial markets. The problem is analyzed in the context of a repeated duopoly game. I conclude that the prevailing pricing systems depend on the structural elements of the market. Delivered pricing systems emerge in equilibrium in highly monopolistic and highly competitive industries, while FOB is used in intermediate market structures. The fact driving this result is that delivered pricing policies allow spatial price discrimination...

  7. Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, Jui-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Chih; Liu, Hung-Chun

    2008-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate distribution for return innovations is important in VaR applications owing to its ability to directly affect the estimation quality of the required quantiles. This study investigates the influence of fat-tailed innovation process on the performance of one-day-ahead VaR estimates using three GARCH models (GARCH-N, GARCH-t and GARCH-HT). Daily spot prices of five energy commodities (WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, heating oil 2, propane and New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular) are used to compare the accuracy and efficiency of the VaR models. Empirical results suggest that for asset returns that exhibit leptokurtic and fat-tailed features, the VaR estimates generated by the GARCH-HT models have good accuracy at both low and high confidence levels. Additionally, MRSB indicates that the GARCH-HT model is more efficient than alternatives for most cases at high confidence levels. These findings suggest that the heavy-tailed distribution is more suitable for energy commodities, particularly VaR calculation. (author)

  8. Main drivers of natural gas prices in the Czech Republic after the market liberalisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slabá, Monika; Gapko, Petr; Klimešová, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    One of the goals of the European Commission in the energy sector is creating a single competitive European market. The decision to liberalise energy markets has far-reaching consequences not only for gas companies, but also for the rest of the real economy in view of the fact that natural gas is being used as an important primary energy source in several sectors of production and in the power industry. We aim to answer how liberalisation/unbundling has influenced gas pricing/prices in the Czech Republic. We investigate the individual components of end-customer gas prices according to the value chain and we define and structure the drivers of these components. We use a case study from the Czech Republic, one of the Central and Eastern European countries, which, contrary to the old Member States, is buying most of its gas from one supplier (high import dependence and low supply diversity) and where the transmission and distribution network is characterised by a sufficient contractual and physical capacity. We stress that next to basic conditions on the European gas market (import dependency on external gas producers) legal and institutional conditions and the initial market structure of each Member State are also important for the results of the liberalisation. - Highlights: ► We deal with gas pricing in the Czech Republic after liberalisation/unbundling. ► The TSO, DSO price components have increased, the SSO price component has decreased. ► Commodity price for Households started to relate to hub prices. ► Commodity price for Corporates remained oil-linked, however discounts were provided. ► Only some Corporates experienced savings in total purchasing costs of gas.

  9. Do High Consumers of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Respond Differently to Price Changes? A Finite Mixture IV-Tobit Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etilé, Fabrice; Sharma, Anurag

    2015-09-01

    This study compares the impact of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) tax between moderate and high consumers in Australia. The key methodological contribution is that price response heterogeneity is identified while controlling for censoring of consumption at zero and endogeneity of expenditure by using a finite mixture instrumental variable Tobit model. The SSB price elasticity estimates show a decreasing trend across increasing consumption quantiles, from -2.3 at the median to -0.2 at the 95th quantile. Although high consumers of SSBs have a less elastic demand for SSBs, their very high consumption levels imply that a tax would achieve higher reduction in consumption and higher health gains. Our results also suggest that an SSB tax would represent a small fiscal burden for consumers whatever their pre-policy level of consumption, and that an excise tax should be preferred to an ad valorem tax. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Effective Drinking Water Pricing, A Case Study of Arak City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyedhosein Sajjadifar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Drinking water pricing is a major challenge facing the water and wastewater industry in Iran where decisions of water pricing are essentially based on social, legal, administrative, and financial criteria with only a slight heed, if any, paid to economic considerations. Generally speaking, the price of water in Iran reflects a percentage fraction of the costs of water production and distribution while an economterically efficient model of water pricing is absent. This failure to account for economic considerations in water pricing has turned water into a commodity supplied either at a very low price or free of charge in cases. The current situation of water scarcity which is complicated by a multitude of environmental problems can only be ascribed to the present water pricing policies. It is, therefore, essential for the water sector to employ economic tools, adopt relevant approaches, and execute optimized strategic policies in an attempt to reduce the negative impacts of the imminent water crisis. Based on the above considerations, the present study was designed to investigate and review optimal water pricing policies at Arak Water and Wastewater Authority which functions as a business offering both domestic and non-domestic water services. The cost function considered is a translog one and the seemingly unrelated regressions are used for estimation. Results show that the domestic water price levied from customers covers only 33% of the total production and delivery costs such that Arak Water & Wastewater Authority practices the economy of scale in producing both domestic and non-domestic water. Considering the fact that pricing based on the marginal cost under the conditions of economy of scale leads to financial losses for Arak W&W Authority, it seems appropriate to calculate the second best price as suggested by Frank Ramsey. Thus, the marginal cost was combined with the price elasticity for the domestic water demand in the different

  11. Price fairness

    OpenAIRE

    Diller, Hermann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...

  12. Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II

    OpenAIRE

    Wilfried Rickels; Dennis Görlich; Gerrit Oberst

    2010-01-01

    In 2005, the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) established a new commodity: the right to emit a ton of CO2 (EUA). Since its launch, the corresponding price has shown rather turbulent dynamics, including nervous reactions to policy announcements and a price collapse after a visible over-allocation in Phase I. As a consequence, the question whether fundamental factors (fossil fuel prices, economic activity, weather) affect the EUA price remained partially unresolved. Today, being halfwa...

  13. Towards a Gendered Agro-Commodity Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Primrose Nakazibwe

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Commodity or value chains are the dominant means to channel agro-food products from cultivators to consumers. Direct open markets are either non-existent or insignificant . These chains are also the main mechanisms for integrating underprivileged groups into the world economy. Why do global value chains generate sorrow for many and joy for a few, and why are these outcomes heavily gender biased? To look for answers this article critically reviews the post-2000 and earlier gender literature by proponents and opponents of the mainstream value chain approach. The purpose is to provide a methodological contribution on the integration of gender into the commodity chain approach. Most studies have fo cused on the economic effects of chain dynamics on women in agricultural product and labor markets. Some have extended this reasoning with social and cultural effects. Despite these advances, analytical gaps still exist as most existing research has concentrated on the agricultural nodes of modern, high value chains and lacks a gendered conceptual foundation. Scarce attention has been given to traditional staple crops, non-agricultural nodes, and feed back effects of gender relations on the chain. Our results indicate that an appropriate GCC approach should also consider the gendered impacts of the interaction between the governance structure and the institutiona l embeddedness, as well as the consequences of intra-household division of resources and labor in all stages of the chain. These two conceptual complements will be needed to explain the opportunities and constraints to improve gender equity in traditional and modern agro-commodity chains.

  14. Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2001-01-01

    by the appearance of changing demands and technological opportunities, which potentially can lead to differentiation possibilities. The article describes a framework for the study of industrial buying of food commodities and the results of a conjoint study based on interviews with oil purchasers in the margarine...... and mayonnaise industries in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The main result of the study is that the price is an omnipotent decision criterion, when vegetable fats and mayonnaise producers buy vegetable oil, but also that product and supplier criteria can be used to segment...

  15. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    This article explores factors influencing the motivation and performance of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Several challenges are related to the classical dilemma of matrix organization, but with particular implications in this specific context of purchasing. We report on a reward...... system which was intended to support collective team effort, yet enhanced conflicts of interest in the matrix structure, discuss leadership, goal alignment and career tracks, and debate when and whether a team structure is appropriate in the pursuit of corporate purchasing synergies. The article is based...

  16. Commodity profiles for selected metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svoboda, O.; Wilson, B.M.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes the basic characteristics of 35 metals and gives the prices and production of these metals for the period 1979 to 1983/4. The description of each metal includes the ore grades and reserves, the major minerals in which the metal occurs, and the discovery, selected physical properties, sources, uses, substitutes, and effects on the environment of the metal. Graphs showing price and production cover the period 1950 to 1984, and possible future developments in these areas are forecast for each metal until the year 2000

  17. A strong argument for using non-commodities to generate electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santiago, Katarina Tatiana Marques; Campello de Souza, Fernando Menezes; Carvalho Bezerra, Diogo de

    2014-01-01

    An optimal control approach towards generating electricity is used to analyze the trade-off between using of primary sources which are regarded as commodities, such as fossil fuels, biomass and water to generate electricity, and exploiting these sources for their other economic uses (for example, in the petrochemical industry, in the production of fuels, in agriculture, in steelmaking, and so forth). In order to do so, a dynamic model is presented which establishes relationships between economic growth, the fossil fuel, water and biomass sectors, and energy policies, based on the application of the Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Among other results, the analysis establishes that, under the optimal path, the price of commodities for non-energy uses should be twice the price of the energy assets. This indicates that sources which are not commodities such as solar energy, wind energy, and geothermal energy, should be used to generate electricity. - Highlights: • We used an optimal control approach to analyze the trade-off between the multiple uses of energy resource. • We used a dynamic model which establishes relationships between economic growth, the fossil fuel, water and biomass sectors. • The analysis establishes that the price of commodities for non-energy uses should be twice the price of the energy assets

  18. 7 CFR 1962.19 - Claims against Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... sell or pledge to CCC as loan collateral under the Price Support Program, commodities on which FmHA or... County Supervisor will make immediate demand on the borrower for the amount of the CCC loan or the... CCC. (2) On receiving information from the State Director that CCC has called the borrower's loan, the...

  19. Dynamic Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...

  20. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-07-01

    Our study, focused on gas prices in importing economies, describes wholesale prices and retail prices, their evolution for the last one or two decades, the economic mechanisms of price formation. While an international market for oil has developed thanks to moderate storage and transportation charges, these costs are much higher in the case of natural gas, which involves that this energy is still traded inside continental markets. There are three regional gas markets around the world: North America (the United States, importing mainly from Canada and Mexico), Europe (importing mainly from Russia, Algeria and Norway) and Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and India, importing mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia). A market for gas has also developed in South America, but it will not be covered by our paper. In Europe and the US, due to large domestic resources and strong grids, natural gas is purchased mostly through pipelines. In Northeast Asia, there is a lack of such infrastructures, so imported gas takes mainly the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped on maritime tankers. Currently, the LNG market is divided into two zones: the Atlantic Basin (Europe and US) and the Pacific Basin (Asia and the Western Coast of America). For the past few years, the Middle East and Africa have tended to be crucial suppliers for both LNG zones. Gas price formation varies deeply between regional markets, depending on several structural factors (regulation, contracting practises, existence of a spot market, liquidity, share of imports). Empirically, the degree of market opening (which corresponds to the seniority in the liberalization process) seems to be the primary determinant of pricing patterns. North America has the most liberalized and well-performing natural gas industry in the world. Gas pricing is highly competitive and is based on supply/demand balances. Spot and futures markets are developed. The British gas sector is also deregulated and thus follows a

  1. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-01-01

    Our study, focused on gas prices in importing economies, describes wholesale prices and retail prices, their evolution for the last one or two decades, the economic mechanisms of price formation. While an international market for oil has developed thanks to moderate storage and transportation charges, these costs are much higher in the case of natural gas, which involves that this energy is still traded inside continental markets. There are three regional gas markets around the world: North America (the United States, importing mainly from Canada and Mexico), Europe (importing mainly from Russia, Algeria and Norway) and Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and India, importing mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia). A market for gas has also developed in South America, but it will not be covered by our paper. In Europe and the US, due to large domestic resources and strong grids, natural gas is purchased mostly through pipelines. In Northeast Asia, there is a lack of such infrastructures, so imported gas takes mainly the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped on maritime tankers. Currently, the LNG market is divided into two zones: the Atlantic Basin (Europe and US) and the Pacific Basin (Asia and the Western Coast of America). For the past few years, the Middle East and Africa have tended to be crucial suppliers for both LNG zones. Gas price formation varies deeply between regional markets, depending on several structural factors (regulation, contracting practises, existence of a spot market, liquidity, share of imports). Empirically, the degree of market opening (which corresponds to the seniority in the liberalization process) seems to be the primary determinant of pricing patterns. North America has the most liberalized and well-performing natural gas industry in the world. Gas pricing is highly competitive and is based on supply/demand balances. Spot and futures markets are developed. The British gas sector is also deregulated and thus follows a

  2. Quantity precommitment and price matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tumennasan, Norovsambuu

    We revisit the question of whether price matching is anti-competitive in a capacity constrained duopoly setting. We show that the effect of price matching depends on capacity. Specifically, price matching has no effect when capacity is relatively low, but it benefits the firms when capacity...... is relatively high. Interestingly, when capacity is in an intermediate range, price matching benefits only the small firm but does not affect the large firm in any way. Therefore, one has to consider capacity seriously when evaluating if price matching is anti-competitive. If the firms choose their capacities...... simultaneously before pricing decisions, then the effect of price matching is either pro-competitive or ambiguous. We show that if the cost of capacity is high, then price matching can only (weakly) decrease the market price. On the other hand, if the cost of capacity is low, then the effect of price matching...

  3. Market, trading and coal price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, J.C.; Cornot-Gandolphe, S.; Labrunie, L.; Lemoine, St.; Vandijck, M.

    2006-01-01

    The coal world experienced a true upheaval in the past five years World coal consumption went up 28 % between 2000 and 2005, as a result of the strong growth in Chinese demand. The growth should continue in the coming years: electrical plant builders' orders are mainly for coal. The regained interest in coal is based on the constraints experienced by competing energies (increase in oil and natural gas prices, geopolitical uncertainties, supply difficulties) and by the abundant reserves of coal in the world and the competitiveness of its price. The strong growth in world coal demand comes with a change in rules governing steam coal trading. While long term bilateral agreements were most common until the late nineties, there has been a true revolution in coal marketing since 2000: spot contracts, stock exchange emergence and futures contracts, price indexes. In a few years, the steam coal market has become a true commodities market, overtaking many more goods. The price of coal has also gone through strong variations since 2003. Whereas the price had been stable for decades, in 2004 the strong increase in China' s demand for coal and iron ore resulting in transport shortage, caused a strong increase in CAF coal prices. Since then, prices have gone down, but remain higher than the Eighties and Nineties levels. In spite of the increase, coal remains available at more competitive prices than its competing energies. (authors)

  4. Commodity exchanges - Function and operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    The author discusses the potential impacts that a futures market may have on the international trade of uranium. The discussion first centers around the New York Mercantile Exchange. The following market aspects are discussed: long-term contracting; spot market; commoditization and pricing; and advantages, disadvantages, risks, and provisions of futures market contracts

  5. Financial Flexibility in Highly Regulated Market: Indonesian Telecommunication Case during Tariff Pricing War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Arief Rijanto

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In year 2008, regulation of Indonesian telecommunicationindustries changes due the tariff pricing war within Telecommunication operator. This regulation tie up the telecommunication operator and affect operating revenue margin.The needs of financial flexibility within tele communication firm is increased.Capex, operating revenue and reinvestment needs to be flexible must be inline with competition and change of technology. This paper goals is measuring financial flexibility based on Capex, operating revenue and re-investment needs.Re-investment needs by Telecommunication operator can be financed with or without financial flexibility. Data from year 2007 up to 2014 is selected to accommodate before and after changes of telecommunication regulation. The regulation effect to financial flexibility of telecommunication firm is still relevantbecause telecommunication industries by nature needs larger capital to re-new the telecommunication technology. Real options method will be used to measure financial flexibility.Keywords: Financial flexibility, Price war, Telecommunication Regulation, Real Option

  6. Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

    2005-01-01

    This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what extent...... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...

  7. Metal prices in the United States through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This report, which updates and revises the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (1999) publication, “Metal Prices in the United States Through 1998,” presents an extended price history for a wide range of metals available in a single document. Such information can be useful for the analysis of mineral commodity issues, as well as for other purposes. The chapter for each mineral commodity includes a graph of annual current and constant dollar prices for 1970 through 2010, where available; a list of significant events that affected prices; a brief discussion of the metal and its history; and one or more tables that list current dollar prices. In some cases, the metal prices presented herein are for some alternative form of an element or, instead of a price, a value, such as the value for an import as appraised by the U.S. Customs Service. Also included are the prices for steel, steel scrap, and iron ore—steel because of its importance to the elements used to alloy with it, and steel scrap and iron ore because of their use in steelmaking. A few minor metals, such as calcium, potassium, sodium, strontium, and thorium, for which price histories were insufficient, were excluded. The annual prices given may be averages for the year, yearend prices, or some other price as appropriate for a particular commodity. Certain trade journals have been the source of much of this price information—American Metal Market, ICIS Chemical Business, Engineering and Mining Journal, Industrial Minerals, Metal Bulletin, Mining Journal, Platts Metals Week, Roskill Information Services Ltd. commodity reports, and Ryan’s Notes. Price information also is available in minerals information publications of the USGS (1880–1925, 1996–present) and the U.S. Bureau of Mines (1926–95), such as Mineral Commodity Summaries, Mineral Facts and Problems, Mineral Industry Surveys, and Minerals Yearbook. In addition to prices themselves, these journals and publications contain information relevant to

  8. Speculative phenomena impact on oil prices formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Matthieu

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil prices evolution between 2007 and 2009 has been the centre of a major controversy. This paper aims to understand the structural changes which happened on the oil market during the past decade. Analysis is focused on the consequences on oil prices of growing financial investments in commodities. More specifically, emphasis is set on little commented facts that comfort the hypothesis of a speculative bubble between 2007 and 2009

  9. Aromatherapy Oils: Commodities, Materials, Essences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Barcan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the essential oils that are the central tools of aromatherapy and uses them as a case study for different approaches to material culture. It considers the conceptual and political implications of thinking of essential oils as, in turn, commodities, materials and essences. I argue that both cultural studies and aromatherapy have something to learn from each other. Classic materialist approaches might do well to focus more attention on the material properties and effects of things. Aromatherapy, on the other hand, could benefit from the enriched political understanding associated with classic materialist critique. New materialist strains of cultural studies may also find the vibrancy of matter that underpins many CAM/New Age practices worthy of examination.

  10. Choosing a commode for the ward environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballinger, C; Pain, H; Pascoe, J; Gore, S

    The choice of appropriate equipment to promote patient independence and enhance nursing care is of major concern to the nurse in the ward environment. This article reports on a recent evaluation of specialist commodes, (Ballinger et al, 1994), with reference to the programme funded by the Medical Devices Agency, Department of Health, under whose auspices the project was carried out. The results of user evaluations and technical tests of six mobile commodes are presented, the preferred model being the Mayfair commode supplied by Carters (J&A) Ltd. The article concludes by identifying a number of important considerations to bear in mind when selecting a commode.

  11. Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabre, S.

    1991-01-01

    Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

  12. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2014-01-01

    Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE h...

  13. Global stocks of selected mineral-based commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilburn, David R.; Bleiwas, Donald I.; Karl, Nick A.

    2016-12-05

    IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, analyzes mineral and metal supply chains by identifying and describing major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. This report focuses on an important component of the world’s supply chain: the amounts and global distribution of major consumer, producer, and exchange stocks of selected mineral commodities. In this report, the term “stock” is used instead of “inventory” and refers to accumulations of mined ore, intermediate products, and refined mineral-based commodities that are in a form that meets the agreed-upon specifications of a buyer or processor of intermediate products. These may include certain ores such as bauxite, concentrates, smelter products, and refined metals. Materials sometimes referred to as inventory for accounting purposes, such as ore contained in a deposit or in a leach pile, or materials that need to be further processed before they can be shipped to a consumer, are not considered. Stocks may be held (owned) by consumers, governments, investors, producers, and traders. They may serve as (1) a means to achieve economic, social, and strategic goals through government policies; (2) a secure source of supply to meet demand and to mitigate potential shortages in the supply chain; (3) a hedge to mitigate price volatility; and (4) vehicles for speculative investment.The paucity and uneven reliability of data for stocks of ores and concentrates and for material held by producers, consumers, and merchants hinder the accurate estimating of the size and distribution of this portion of the supply chain for certain commodities. This paper reviews the more visible stocks held in commodity exchange warehouses distributed throughout the world.

  14. Natural gas market review 2008 - optimising investments and ensuring security in a high-priced environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-09-18

    Over the last 18 months, natural gas prices have continued to rise steadily in all IEA markets. What are the causes of this steady upward trend? Unprecedented oil and coal prices which have encouraged power generators to switch to gas, together with tight supplies, demand for gas in new markets and delayed investments all played a role. Investment uncertainties, cost increases and delays remain major concerns in most gas markets and are continuing to constitute a threat to long-term security of supply. A massive expansion in LNG production is expected in the short term to 2012, but the lag in LNG investment beyond 2012 is a concern for all gas users in both IEA and non-IEA markets. Despite this tight market context, regional markets continue on their way to globalisation. This tendency seems irreversible, and it impacts even the most independent markets. Price linkages and other interactions between markets are becoming more pronounced. This publication addresses these major developments, assessing investment in natural gas projects (LNG, pipelines, upstream), escalating costs, the activities of international oil and gas companies, and gas demand in the power sector. In addition, the publication includes data and forecasts on OECD and non-OECD regions to 2015 and in-depth reviews of five OECD countries and regions including the European Union. It also provides analysis of 34 non-OECD countries in South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, including a detailed assessment of the outlook for gas in Russia, as well as insights on new technologies to deliver gas to markets.

  15. Price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the price generating process and volatility of Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive ...

  16. Crop Monitoring as a Tool for Modelling the Genesis of Millet Prices in Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, D.; Marinho, E.; Defourny, P.; Waldner, F.; d'Andrimont, R.

    2015-12-01

    Food security in Sahelian countries strongly relies on the ability of markets to transfer staplesfrom surplus to deficit areas. Market failures, leading to the inefficient geographical allocation of food,are expected to emerge from high transportation costs and information asymmetries that are commonin moderately developed countries. As a result, important price differentials are observed betweenproducing and consuming areas which damages both poor producers and food insecure consumers. Itis then vital for policy makers to understand how the prices of agricultural commodities are formed byaccounting for the existing market imperfections in addition to local demand and supply considerations. To address this issue, we have gathered an unique and diversified set of data for Senegal andintegrated it in a spatially explicit model that simulates the functioning of agricultural markets, that isfully consistent with the economic theory. Our departure point is a local demand and supply modelaround each market having its catchment areas determined by the road network. We estimate the localsupply of agricultural commodities from satellite imagery while the demand is assumed to be a functionof the population living in the area. From this point on, profitable transactions between areas with lowprices to areas with high prices are simulated for different levels of per kilometer transportation costand information flows (derived from call details records i.e. mobile phone data). The simulated prices are then comparedwith the actual millet prices. Despite the parsimony of the model that estimates only two parameters, i.e. the per kilometertransportation cost and the information asymmetry resulting from low levels of mobile phone activitybetween markets, it impressively explains more than 80% of the price differentials observed in the 40markets included in the analysis. In one hand these results can be used in the assessment of the socialwelfare impacts of the further development of

  17. 17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Commission or its designee. (Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under control number 3038-0009... composition of the fixed price cash position of each commodity hedged including: (1) The quantity of stocks... commitments open in such cash commodities and their products and byproducts. (3) The quantity of fixed price...

  18. 17 CFR 270.22e-2 - Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1. 270.22e-2 Section 270.22e-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges....22e-2 Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1. An investment company shall not be...

  19. From creation to consumption: objects and commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angélica Bautista López

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Objects, persons and ideas are all merely merchandise in a world that is highly industrialised and utterly superficial. Consumer societies produce a profusion of merchandise. In strictly economic terms, merchandise is whatever has an exchange-value, in  a world where objects are valued for their utility. So goods are whatever is useful, where use can be measured in monetary terms. This perspective impoverishes social relations. People relate only insofar as their value dictates, and that value is merely utilitarian. Moreover, this commercialisation reaches up to impoverish society as a whole. All this is the result of a long process of objectification which, seeing the world as the exchange of goods, ends up treating people just like any other tradable commodity. This article takes a critical look at the processes involved, and proposes an explanation in terms of the social construction of 'utility''.

  20. Does Accessibility to the Central Business District (CBD Have an Impact on High-Rise Condominium Price Gradient in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dziauddin Mohd Faris

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a spatial econometric method known as Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to investigate the impact of accessibility to the CBD on the high-rise condominium price gradient in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Using a GWR method, after having controlled other factors, this study clearly reveal the impact of accessibility to the CBD on high-rise condominium varying prices across the study area, having a much larger positive impact in some areas but less and counterintuitive impact in others. In general, the results from this study show accessibility to the CBD measured by the travel times does affect high-rise condominium prices (high-rise condominium prices decrease as travel times to the CBD increase in most part of the areas, hence proved Alonso, Muth and Mills were still right.

  1. Development of commodity exchange in Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Sicel, Mladen

    2009-01-01

    Purpose of this thesis work is to show relevance and necessarity for existing of commodity exchange and it’s influence to the economy of Croatia. Because eastern part of Croatia, region called Slavonia is mostly agricultural oriented, it is of essential relevance to establish and make operate of first commodity exchange in Croatia.

  2. Electricity: French industrialists tied up by prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemain, A.

    2004-01-01

    With more than 50% of increase in 3 years, the electricity prices reach summits in France. The industrialists, initially enthusiastic over the promises of the liberalization of European energy markets, are today particularly disappointed and denounce an irrational logic. The reasons of these inflationary prices are explained in this article: alignment of electricity prices with respect to the prices of the less efficient producers (oil and gas power plants), lack of peak production means which induces prices volatility, a commodity market model unsuitable to electricity specificities, lack of transparency in the establishment of reference prices, no margins for negotiation, and will of Electricite de France (EdF) to restore its financial status. (J.S.)

  3. Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, E.D.

    1984-01-01

    Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

  4. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  5. Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerndal, Mette; Joernsten, Kurt

    2004-06-01

    The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price-functions that are the basis for integer programming duality. (Author)

  6. World oil prices: Up or down in 1995? and beyond?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browning, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    After a brief review of historical oil prices up to 1993-94, the factors influencing future prices are discussed. A survey of oil supply and demand over 1986-1993 shows oil demand has risen in Asia and fallen in the former Soviet Union and central/eastern Europe (FSU/CEE). Non-OPEC oil supply fell from 42.1 million bbl/d (MMBD) in 1986 to 40.6 MMBD in 1993, reflecting declines in Russian and U.S. production. Total OPEC production rose in the same period from 18.3 MMBD to 24.7 MMBD. OPEC production will continue to be dominant in determining prices, and demand in growing Asian economies and the FSU/CEE countries will be the most important and uncertain demand-side factor. If 7.5 MMBD of new OPEC capacity comes on stream by 2000 and OPEC production averages 31 MMBD in 2000, the utilization rate for OPEC oil at that time would be about the same as in 1973-79 and 1994. World oil production costs vary considerably by region, with the USA, North Sea, and Canada having relatively high costs; yet even in those regions, costs have been declining. A global weighted average cost based on 1993 production is $8-9/bbl. Fiscal and financial factors affecting oil prices include the need for oil revenue among oil producers. This need will put pressure on FSU economies to continue exports, although increases in such exports will require new infrastructure. In any case, the world oil market is likely to see a continuing trend to regarding oil as a commodity, which tends to reduce the control that physical participants exert on price-setting. Long-term real prices are not expected to rise but will likely remain volatile, cycling around $13/bbl. Spot prices in 1995 for West Texas Intermediate are forecast to be in the $16-20/bbl range. 4 figs., 4 tabs

  7. Financial Flexibility in Highly Regulated Market: Indonesian Telecommunication Case during Tariff Pricing War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Arief Rijanto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In year 2008, regulation of Indonesian telecommunicationindustries changes due the tariff pricing war within Telecommunication opera-tor. This regulation tie up the telecommunication operator and affect operating revenue margin.The needs of financial flexibility within tele-communication firm is increased.Capex, operating revenue and reinvestment needs to be flexible must be inline with competition and change of technology. This paper goals is measuring financial flexibility based on Capex, operating revenue and re-investment needs.Reinvestment needs by Telecommunication operator can be financed with or without financial flexibility. Data from year 2007 up to 2014 is selec-ted to accommodate before and after changes of telecommunication regulation. The regulation effect to financial flexibility of telecommu-nication firm is still relevantbecause telecommunication industries by nature needs larger capital to re-new the telecommunication technology. Real options method will be used to measure financial flexibility.

  8. 17 CFR 33.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF DOMESTIC EXCHANGE-TRADED COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 33.3 Unlawful commodity option... of, or maintain a position in, any commodity option transaction subject to the provisions of this...

  9. 17 CFR 32.11 - Suspension of commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Suspension of commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.11 Suspension of commodity option transactions. (a... accept money, securities or property in connection with, the purchase or sale of any commodity option, or...

  10. Vital signs : spending hit new high as industry stepped on the gas to reap strong prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunan, D.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presented a review of Canadian oil industry expenditures plus oil and gas revenues for Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Manitoba since 1991. In the year 2000, the oil and gas industry boosted expenditures by 33 per cent and drilled a record number of wells in an effort to cash in on record natural gas prices and near-record crude oil prices which were a result of soaring demand and low supply. Total expenditures by Canadian oil and gas companies reached $33.98 billion in 2000 from $25.5 billion in 1999. A total of 16,507 wells were completed. Canada-wide development drilling expenditures increased to $5.7 billion in 2000 from $4.2 billion in 1999. In addition, exploration dollars and land expenditures also rose, as did investments in production facilities and production costs. Most of the new spending was concentrated in Alberta where most of the development drilling took place. Exploration efforts were held back to boost deliverability from known reserves. As a result, exploration spending in Alberta rose only slightly to $2.6 billion from $2.3 billion in 1999. Total crude and equivalent production for the Canadian oil patch in year 2000 rose only about 5 per cent, with most of the increase being associated with higher output from offshore development. Total sales of Canadian gas rose a modest 3 per cent, but measured by financial growth, these results are very positive. Most companies are reporting record revenues, cash flow and earnings for year 2000. 2 tabs., 1 fig

  11. Price promotions and marketing within points of sale around high schools in Greece during the 2012 economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charis Girvalaki

    2015-12-01

    Price promotions were noted within the majority of POS close to schools. Aggressive promotional activities may hinder efforts to de-normalize tobacco use, especially during financial crisis when price promotions may pose as more attractive to potential consumers.

  12. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  13. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...... the determination of transfer price will affect the size of the profit or loss in the organizational units and thus have an impact on the evaluation of managers‟ performance. In some instances the determination of transfer prices may lead to a disagreement between coordination of the organizational units...

  14. Space and commodity-based society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gvozden Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The space is privileged in the commodity-based society. It is well known that the economic space in the 19th and 20th centuries rapidly managed to subordinate all other areas 'conveying and instilling in them their own meanings and goals' (G. Milatović. A new form of space that qualifies commodity society was created, marked by dualities: openness-closeness, private-public, sameness-difference. This paper is an attempt to criticize the usual analysis of the categories of commodity-space, linked to the ambivalent role of the state as a guarantor of the functioning of the commodity-based society, as well as its controlling instance. The increasing delocalisation of the political changes the nature of the space in the commodity-based society. Privileged areas are produced that create an illusion of protection of consumers (shopping malls, gated communities, theme parks, video surveillance, while at the same time social differentiation and identification are produced through the symbolic order of commodities and a sense of inclusion or exclusion from that order. At the same time, the examples of tourism and selling places demonstrate that such a commodity-space unusually easy reconciles sameness and difference. It entails uniformity to help achieve the fluctuation of goods, while insisting on the local as different, especially in terms of the role of particularity in the global trade.

  15. The logic of the primary energy prices evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper deals, very briefly, with the basis factors determining the prices levels of the primary energies and the logic of their evolution both in the short and in the long term. It first gives definitions: of the limits of mineral commodities prices fluctuations and of the long term equilibrium prices. Then, it tries to demonstrate three points: (1) Coal and nuclear electricity prices are driven in the long term only by their own production and environmental costs. Moreover, coal prices fluctuations are surrounded by factors which are basically independent from oil prices. (2) There is no such thing as one single equilibrium price for oil, but several ones, depending on political factors, and among them, on the degree of consensus between the 'Five' of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Irak, Koweit, The Emirates). (3) Natural gas prices are in an intermediate situation, but tend to get closer to the case of coal and nuclear prices. 4 figs

  16. Justification of directions of technological and price audit systems changes for the purpose of high-rise construction innovating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogacheva, Yana; Panenkov, Andrey; Petrikova, Zinaida; Nezhnikova, Ekaterina

    2018-03-01

    Improving the quality of high-rise buildings under modern conditions should be based not only on compliance with the norms of technical regulations, but also on ensuring energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, and intellectuality, which can be achieved only through the introduction of innovations at all stages of the life cycle of the investment project. Authors of this article justified the need for a mechanism of technological and price audit of projects. They also suggested the model of life cycle of organizational and economic changes, connected with implantation of the mechanism of projects audit. They showed innovation character of ecological high-rise construction for the whole life cycle. Authors also made proposals to change the audit system for high-rise construction projects in the focus of its environmental friendliness.

  17. Justification of directions of technological and price audit systems changes for the purpose of high-rise construction innovating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogacheva Yana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving the quality of high-rise buildings under modern conditions should be based not only on compliance with the norms of technical regulations, but also on ensuring energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, and intellectuality, which can be achieved only through the introduction of innovations at all stages of the life cycle of the investment project. Authors of this article justified the need for a mechanism of technological and price audit of projects. They also suggested the model of life cycle of organizational and economic changes, connected with implantation of the mechanism of projects audit. They showed innovation character of ecological high-rise construction for the whole life cycle. Authors also made proposals to change the audit system for high-rise construction projects in the focus of its environmental friendliness.

  18. High food prices and the global financial crisis have reduced access to nutritious food and worsened nutritional status and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, Henk-Jan; de Pee, Saskia; Sanogo, Issa; Subran, Ludovic; Bloem, Martin W

    2010-01-01

    A global economic and financial crisis is engulfing the developing world, coming on top of high food and fuel prices. This paper assesses the impact of the crises on food consumption, nutrition, and health. Several methods were applied, including risk analysis using the cost of the food basket, assessment surveys, simulations, regression analysis using a food consumption score (FCS), reflecting diet frequency and diversity, and a review of the impact of such dietary changes on nutritional status and health. The cost of the food basket increased in several countries, forcing households to reduce quality and quantity of food consumed. The FCS, which is a measure of diet diversity, is negatively correlated with food prices. Simulations show that energy consumption declined during 2006-2010 in nearly all developing regions, resulting potentially in an additional 457 million people (of 4.5 billion) at risk of being hungry and many more unable to afford the dietary quality required to perform, develop, and grow well. As a result of the crises, large numbers of vulnerable households have reduced the quality and quantity of foods they consume and are at risk of increased malnutrition. Population groups most affected are those with the highest requirements, including young children, pregnant and lactating women, and the chronically ill (particularly people with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis). Because undernutrition during the first 2 y of life has life-long consequences, even short-term price rises will have long-term effects. Thus, measures to mitigate the impact of the crises are urgently required.

  19. Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irz, Xavier; Niemi, Jyrki; Liu, Xing

    2013-01-01

    The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006–2008 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets, such as the energy market. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a cointegration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation are dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock. - Highlights: • We investigate the dynamics of food price formation in Finland. • We establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices of food, energy, agricultural commodities, and wages. • Energy price plays a significant but limited role in determining the equilibrium level of food prices

  20. Il livello dei prezzi e la politica monetaria (The Price Level and Monetary Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Most central banks are required or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is what index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

  1. Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Gabriela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

  2. Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

  3. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.

    2009-01-01

    The 'AFTP' conference on 'petroleum prices' organized by Total last March, tries to explain the different aspects of the crisis we undergo for July 2007 and its consequential effects on the petroleum markets (supply, demand evolvements, impacts on reserves, prices, refining...). (O.M.)

  4. Prices paid for adult and paediatric antiretroviral treatment by low- and middle-income countries in 2012: high, low or just right?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perriëns, Joseph H; Habiyambere, Vincent; Dongmo-Nguimfack, Boniface; Hirnschall, Gottfried

    2014-01-01

    A viable market for antiretroviral drugs in low- and middle-income countries is key to the continued scale-up of antiretroviral treatment. We describe the price paid by low- and middle-income countries for 10 first- and 7 second-line adult and paediatric treatment regimens from 2003 to 2012, and compare the price of their finished formulations with the price of their active pharmaceutical ingredients in 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012. Between 2003 and 2012 the median price of adult first-line treatment regimens per treatment-year decreased from USD499 to USD122, and that of second-line regimens from USD2,934 to USD497. In 2005 adult formulations were sold for a price 170% higher than the cost of their active pharmaceutical ingredients. This margin had decreased to 28% in 2012. Between 2004 and 2013, the price of paediatric treatment per treatment-year decreased from USD585 to USD147 for first-line and from USD763 to USD288 for second-line treatment. In 2005, paediatric treatment regimens were sold at a price 231% higher than the cost of their active pharmaceutical ingredients. This margin remained high and was 195% in 2012. The prices paid for antiretroviral drugs by low- and middle-income countries decreased between 2003 and 2012. Although the margins on their sale decreased, there is likely still space for price reduction, especially for the more recent World Health Organization recommended adult first-line regimens and for paediatric treatment.

  5. [Faecal occult blood test for colorectal cancer screening: high quality for a good price].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Veldhuizen, Harriët; Bonfrer, J M G Hans; Kuipers, Ernst J

    2013-01-01

    The Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) awarded the immunochemical faecal occult blood test (IFOBT) to FOB Gold of Sentinel following a European call for tenders. The contract-awarding procedure included the application of quality knock-out criteria, which were met by two suppliers. The decisive factor was the best price/quality ratio. A recent review indicated that, at present, no single IFOBT is better than any other. The decision to opt for a test manufactured by a different supplier than was used in the previous screening pilots made it necessary to re-determine the cut-off value. This value has now been set (88 ng/ml) and is confirmed by a laboratory test. Colonoscopy-related capacity planning, as well as its diagnostic yield, depends on numerous factors; therefore, the RIVM is currently monitoring the referral percentage and number of adenomas detected and is collaborating on quality terms. Any necessary adjustments are to be made during the introduction of the screening test.

  6. The high price of "free" trade: U.S. trade agreements and access to medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopert, Ruth; Gleeson, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    The United States' pursuit of increasingly TRIPS-Plus levels of intellectual property protection for medicines in bilateral and regional trade agreements is well recognized. Less so, however, are U.S. efforts through these agreements to influence and constrain the pharmaceutical coverage programs of its trading partners. Although arguably unsuccessful in the Australia- U.S. Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA), the U.S. nevertheless succeeded in its bilateral FTA with South Korea (KORUS) in establishing prescriptive provisions pertaining to the operation of coverage and reimbursement programs for medicines and medical devices, which have the potential to adversely impact future access in that country. More recently, draft texts leaked from the current Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) negotiations show that U.S. objectives include not only AUSFTA-Plus and KORUS-Plus IP provisions but also ambitious inroads into the domestic health programs of its TPPA partners. This highlights the apparent conflict between trade goals - pursued through multilateral legal instruments to promote economic "health"- and public health objectives, such as the development of treatments for neglected diseases, the pursuit of efficiency and equity in priority setting, and the procurement of medicines at prices that reflect their therapeutic value and facilitate affordable access. © 2013 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  7. Electric Cars and Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Azar, Jose

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices...

  8. Liquidity in High Frequency Trading under the Market Microstructure——Empirical Research Based on the Commodity Futures%市场微观结构下高频交易流动性——基于我国商品期货市场的实证研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘文文; 乔高秀

    2016-01-01

    市场微观结构是研究价格形成过程的一门学科,在市场微观结构下进行的交易是高频交易的核心.高频交易者在市场中提供流动性,但与知情交易者交易时会遭受损失,指令流逆向选择高频交易者,这些指令流被认为是有毒的.首先采用一种全新的方法(VPIN)测量我国商品期货市场上的指令流毒性,再次通过蒙特卡洛模拟验证了各种参数组合下VPIN的精确性,最后采用Granger因果检验研究了VPIN与波动之间的关系.实证结果表明VPIN可以较好的预测商品期货市场中的指令流毒性,跟踪VPIN值可以使流动性提供者控制头寸风险,监管者可以监控市场的流动性质量,提前限制交易或者加强市场监管.本文研究对未来期权市场引入做市商制度具有一定理论指导及现实意义.%Market microstructure is a subject that unveils the process of the research on pricing,the trading under this structure is the core of high frequency trading.Order flow is regarded as toxic when it adversely selects high frequency traders,who are unaware that they are providing liquidity at their own loss.First this paper uses the newest method (VPIN) to measure order flow toxicity in commodity futures.Second,Monte Carlo experiments show VPIN to be accurate for all theoretically possible combinations of parameters.Finally,Granger causality test confirms that the VPIN metric has forecasting power on the magnitude of returns.The empirical results show that VPIN can predict the flow toxicity in commodity futures.Tracking the VPIN would allow market makers or liquidity provider to control their risk.Regulator can monitor the "quality" of liquidity provision,and can pro-actively move to restrict trading or impose market controls.Therefore,this paper can provide theoretical guidance and practical significance for options market introducing market maker system in the future.

  9. Real Time Business Analytics for Buying or Selling Transaction on Commodity Warehouse Receipt System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatna, Taufik; Teniwut, Wellem A.; Hairiyah, Nina; Marimin

    2017-10-01

    The requirement for smooth information such as buying and selling is essential for commodity warehouse receipt system such as dried seaweed and their stakeholders to transact for an operational transaction. Transactions of buying or selling a commodity warehouse receipt system are a risky process due to the fluctuations in dynamic commodity prices. An integrated system to determine the condition of the real time was needed to make a decision-making transaction by the owner or prospective buyer. The primary motivation of this study is to propose computational methods to trace market tendency for either buying or selling processes. The empirical results reveal that feature selection gain ratio and k-NN outperforms other forecasting models, implying that the proposed approach is a promising alternative to the stock market tendency of warehouse receipt document exploration with accurate level rate is 95.03%.

  10. 2002 commodity flow survey : state summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This report summarizes the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) : state reports released in March 2005 by the Bureau of Transportation : Statistics (BTS) of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration : of the USDOT and the Census Bureau of the...

  11. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small......Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...

  12. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...... not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small...

  13. Price of military uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimenko, A.V.

    1998-01-01

    The theoretical results about optimum strategy of use of military uranium confirmed by systems approach accounts are received. The numerical value of the system approach price of the highly enriched military uranium also is given

  14. Gas prices and price process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenewegen, G.G.

    1992-01-01

    On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

  15. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  16. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs  extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  17. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  18. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  19. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  20. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: COMMODITY OR STRATEGICAL TOOL?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciene Braz Ferreira

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the sprouting of the informantion technology (IT and its use for the companies the relation between cost and benefit did not stay clear. This is a question that has been studied and analyzed in depth in the academic and organizacional environments. The results of the studies point with respect to two opposing sides: first, one believes that IT does not pass of a tool without strategical value. On the order side, enterprises work with idea thar IT is strategic solution for many problems for all levels and businesses. Beyond this paradox, the challenge exists to justify the high investiments in technology, since the companies, ahead of the high competitiveness the enterprises could not focus in efforts no productives. The theoretical paper does not intend to answer the question, but to only describe the aspects that lead to such doubt. For such, it describes some concepts of IT, the IT business value, analysis of he investmensts in IT and IT as a commodity. At the final, are presented the limitations of this theoretical reflection and the expositons on the concepts and of its difficult practical applicability.

  1. Mind your pricing cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Eric; Simester, Duncan

    2003-09-01

    For most of the items they buy, consumers don't have an accurate sense of what the price should be. Ask them to guess how much a four-pack of 35-mm film costs, and you'll get a variety of wrong answers: Most people will underestimate; many will only shrug. Research shows that consumers' knowledge of the market is so far from perfect that it hardly deserves to be called knowledge at all. Yet people happily buy film and other products every day. Is this because they don't care what kind of deal they're getting? No. Remarkably, it's because they rely on retailers to tell them whether they're getting a good price. In subtle and not-so-subtle ways, retailers send signals to customers, telling them whether a given price is relatively high or low. In this article, the authors review several common pricing cues retailers use--"sale" signs, prices that end in 9, signpost items, and price-matching guarantees. They also offer some surprising facts about how--and how well--those cues work. For instance, the authors' tests with several mail-order catalogs reveal that including the word "sale" beside a price can increase demand by more than 50%. The practice of using a 9 at the end of a price to denote a bargain is so common, you'd think customers would be numb to it. Yet in a study the authors did involving a women's clothing catalog, they increased demand by a third just by changing the price of a dress from $34 to $39. Pricing cues are powerful tools for guiding customers' purchasing decisions, but they must be applied judiciously. Used inappropriately, the cues may breach customers' trust, reduce brand equity, and give rise to lawsuits.

  2. Do increases in cigarette prices lead to increases in sales of cigarettes with high tar and nicotine yields?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrelly, Matthew C; Loomis, Brett R; Mann, Nathan H

    2007-10-01

    We used scanner data on cigarette prices and sales collected from supermarkets across the United States from 1994 to 2004 to test the hypothesis that cigarette prices are positively correlated with sales of cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content. During this period the average inflation-adjusted price for menthol cigarettes increased 55.8%. Price elasticities from multivariate regression models suggest that this price increase led to an increase of 1.73% in sales-weighted average tar yields and a 1.28% increase in sales-weighted average nicotine yields for menthol cigarettes. The 50.5% price increase of nonmenthol varieties over the same period yielded an estimated increase of 1% in tar per cigarette but no statistically significant increase in nicotine yields. An ordered probit model of the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette strength (ultra-light, light, full flavor, unfiltered) offers an explanation: As cigarette prices increase, the probability that stronger cigarette types will be sold increases. This effect is larger for menthol than for nonmenthol cigarettes. Our results are consistent with earlier population-based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies showing that higher cigarette prices and taxes are associated with increasing consumption of higher-yield cigarettes by smokers.

  3. Freemium Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg

    Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...

  4. Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2018-01-01

    An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

  5. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  6. ANALYSIS OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT FLUCTUATIONS AND ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION IN 2005- 2014. RESERVES FOR DECREASING ELECTRIC POWER PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suslov N. I.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this work we considered the trajectories of change in indicators characterizing the status of economics and power industry: gross regional product, electric power consumption, industrial production, energy prices and costs of delivering electric power to consumers in Russian regions for the last 10 years. Low global commodity prices and sanctions led to a sharp decrease of equipment import, which resulted in an acute problem of import substitution. The level of tariffs of natural monopolies is of great importance for industrial development. The goal of this work was to analyze possibilities for reducing electric power prices by changing the institutional and economic conditions of management. We analyzed not only the official information from Rosstat, but also government regulations, figures given in the official government publication «The Rossiyskaya Gazeta» as well as articles and interviews on economic problems of the electric power industry over the recent years published in «The Kommersant» newspaper. High tariffs of network marketing companies for electric energy transmission, state regulation of heating prices, financing the construction of new capacities by charging the payment in power provision contracts, high price of electric power of nuclear power plants lead to an annual increase in electric power prices for end users. In this work we considered possible solutions to limit the growth of electric power prices.

  7. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

  8. Dating breaks for global crude oil prices and their volatility : a possible price band for global crude prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, H.C.; Suen, Y.B.

    2006-01-01

    Global oil prices are among the most visible of all historical commodity records. This paper presented and applied the multiple structural change method developed by Baie and Perron (BP) to investigate daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices from January 2, 1986 to December 30, 2004 as collected by the United States Department of Energy. In particular, the BP statistical method was used to estimate the number and location of structural breaks in global oil price series and their volatility. The objective was to precisely determine the exact structural break in the global oil market. The breaks for both the price of oil and its volatility were successfully located and dated. It was shown that the break for the structural change in oil prices occurred on November 12, 1999, where the average oil price was U$19.02 per barrel previously, and U$30.90 afterwards. Two breaks for oil price volatility were also found, the first in March 1991 and the other in December 1995. The volatility was measured in 3 regimes by dividing these 2 breaks. It was suggested that since oil prices increased more rapidly during the second half of 2004 and 2005, it is possible that another structural break may be found during this period. However, it wa cautioned that it is difficult to find another significant break until more data becomes available, particularly for periods characterized by a rapid increase in price. 24 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  9. The normal mycoflora of commodities from Thailand. 2. Beans, rice, small grains and other commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitt, J I; Hocking, A D; Bhudhasamai, K; Miscamble, B F; Wheeler, K A; Tanboon-Ek, P

    1994-09-01

    Part of a comprehensive study of fungi occurring in commodities in Thailand, this paper reports results from 276 samples of mung beans, rice, sorghum and soybeans as well as other minor crops. Samples for major commodities were taken from farmers' stocks, middlemen and retail outlets, while those for minor crops were mostly from retail. Each sample was divided into two portions, one being examined in Bangkok and the second at North Ryde. Mycological examinations were carried out by direct plating after surface disinfection in chlorine. Media used were dichloran rose bengal chloramphenicol agar, dichloran 18% glycerol agar, Aspergillus flavus and parasiticus agar and dichloran chloramphenicol peptone agar. Fungi were identified to species level and percentage infection of samples calculated. The dominant fungus found in mung beans was Fusarium semitectum, which was present in 40% of samples and at a high level (18% of all seeds) overall. Aspergillus flavus was also found in 40% of samples, but only in 2% of seeds overall. Lasiodiplodia theobromae was the only other fungus exceeding 1% total infection. The major fungi found in soybeans were A. flavus (67% of samples; 6% overall) and Cladosporium cladosporioides (49% of samples; 9% overall). Storage fungi were more common in soybeans than the other commodities, indicating longer or adverse storage. Paddy rice contained high levels of a wide variety of field fungi, notably Fusarium semitectum, Bipolaris oryzae, and Curvularia, Phoma and Colletotrichum species. However, probably due to the heat generated by milling, milled rice contained very few fungi, which were mostly of storage origin. Only 3% of particles examined contained internal fungi. Infection in sorghum was typical of oilseeds, dominated by Aspergillus flavus, which was present in 86% of samples, with an overall infection rate of 12%. Beans other than soybeans were infected by a wide range of field fungi, but at low levels, with less than half of seeds

  10. Information technology: commodity or strategical tool?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciene Braz Ferreira

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Since the sprouting of the informantion technology (IT and its use for the companies therelation between cost and benefit did not stay clear. This is a question that has been studied andanalyzed in depth in the academic and organizacional environments. The results of the studiespoint with respect to two opposing sides: first, one believes that IT does not pass of a toolwithout strategical value. On the order side, enterprises work with idea thar IT is strategicsolution for many problems for all levels and businesses. Beyond this paradox, the challengeexists to justify the high investiments in technology, since the companies, ahead of the highcompetitiveness the enterprises could not focus in efforts no productives. The theoretical paperdoes not intend to answer the question, but to only describe the aspects that lead to such doubt.For such, it describes some concepts of IT, the IT business value, analysis of he investmensts inIT and IT as a commodity. At the final, are presented the limitations of this theoretical reflectionand the expositons on the concepts and of its difficult practical applicability.

  11. Prospects for oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, P.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the wave in oil prices which occurred in 1991, although appearing to suggest price instability, in fact shows the opposite. Steady oscillation between a low price level that leads to new customers and a high price that encourages customers to switch to alternatives is a sign of a stable market. This relative stability was achieved against the background of the political upheaval in the USSR and Eastern Europe and its unpredictable consequences. Such political uncertainties to one side, the difficulties of assessing demand trends in the light of the imponderables of the state of the world economy and the weather are stressed. Despite these problems, the view is expressed that correct reading of signals up the supply chain by producers should ensure continued relative price stability. This is not to say that prices will stay exactly the same, just that they will be bound within a trading range set by anticipated consumer and producer responses to the fluctuating prices. (UK)

  12. Natural Resources Management: The Effect of the Commodity Boom on Indonesia’s Industrial Development and Welfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Monica Wihardja

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The end of the commodity boom in 2012 once again exposed Indonesia to the vulnerability of the commodity price shocks. This article reviews how Indonesia managed its natural resources in 2001–12 and when the commodity boom ends. What are the lessons learned? Indonesia’s experience is similar to that of other countries rich in natural resources, including the crowding-out of non-commodity sectors, protectionist trade regimes, fiscal inefficiency, slow skill accumulation, rising inequality and environmental damages. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–09, the early trade -policy response at the end of the commodity boom is inward-looking and protective of domestic markets and industries and aims to increase the added value of commodities by downstreaming. This trend is clearly reflected in the 2014 Trade Law, the 2014 Industry Law and the mineral export ban, which was introduced in 2009 through the 2009 Law on Mining of Coal and Minerals and took effect in 2014. Indonesia should learn from other countries in managing its resource revenues, such as through a commodity fund designed to fit its domestic specificity. Reindustrializing, increasing agricultural productivity beyond palm oil and tapping the country’s potential in the services sector including tourism and creative industries are also necessary to promote diversification in production and trade. Resource management policy should also include stronger environmental regulations.

  13. 17 CFR 37.3 - Requirements for underlying commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... that are a security futures product, and the registered derivatives transaction execution facility is a... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Requirements for underlying commodities. 37.3 Section 37.3 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION...

  14. 17 CFR 14.4 - Violation of Commodity Exchange Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Violation of Commodity Exchange Act. 14.4 Section 14.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION... Exchange Act. The Commission may deny, temporarily or permanently, the privilege of appearing or practicing...

  15. 17 CFR 31.6 - Registration of leverage commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... taking delivery to buy or sell the leverage commodity; (2) Explain the effect of such changes upon the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Registration of leverage... LEVERAGE TRANSACTIONS § 31.6 Registration of leverage commodities. (a) Registration of leverage commodities...

  16. A two-commodity perishable inventory system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Sivakumar

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a two-commodity perishable stochastic inventory system under continuous review at a service facility with a finite waiting room. The maximum storage capacity for the i–th item is fixed as Si (i = 1, 2. We assume that a demand for the i–th commodity is of unit size. The arrival instants of customers to the service station constitutes a Poisson process with parameter lambda. The customer demands for these commodities are assumed to be in the ratio p1:p2. An individual customer is issued a demanded item after a random time of service with a negative exponential distribution. The items are perishable in nature and the life time of items of each commodity is assumed to be exponentially distributed. Both commodities are supposed to be substitutable in the sense that at the instant of any zero-stock, the other item may be used to meet the demand. A joint reordering policy is adopted with a random lead time for orders with exponential distribution. The joint probability distribution of the number of customers in the system and the inventory levels are obtained in both the transient and steady states. We also derive some stationary performance measures. The results are illustrated by means of a numerical example.

  17. Price and Product Pooling: Impact on Development and Operation of Differentiated Value Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Hobbs, Jill E.; Kerr, William A.

    2006-01-01

    Price pooling has long been used as a means to deal with risk in the marketing of agricultural commodities. For commodities, product pooling may also generate potential benefits through economies of scale or the provision of market power. Yet there has also been a growing interest in product differentiation and the development of value chains as a means to increase returns to farmers. This article explores the question of whether price or product pooling is compatible with a strategy of pro-a...

  18. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Progress Toward Meeting High Altitude Endurance Aircraft Price Goals

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    ...) High Altitude Endurance (HAE) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) program to determine whether the average flyaway cost for the Global Hawk and DarkStar HAE alr vehicles will be within DOD's cost goal...

  19. Who pays the price for high neuroticism? Moderators of longitudinal risks for depression and anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittengl, J R

    2017-07-01

    High neuroticism is a well-established risk for present and future depression and anxiety, as well as an emerging target for treatment and prevention. The current analyses tested the hypothesis that physical, social and socio-economic disadvantages each amplify risks from high neuroticism for longitudinal increases in depression and anxiety symptoms. A national sample of adults (n = 7108) provided structured interview and questionnaire data in the Midlife Development in the United States Survey. Subsamples were reassessed roughly 9 and 18 years later. Time-lagged multilevel models predicted changes in depression and anxiety symptom intensity across survey waves. High neuroticism predicted increases in a depression/anxiety symptom composite across retest intervals. Three disadvantage dimensions - physical limitations (e.g. chronic illness, impaired functioning), social problems (e.g. less social support, more social strain) and low socio-economic status (e.g. less education, lower income) - each moderated risks from high neuroticism for increases in depression and anxiety symptoms. Collectively, high scores on the three disadvantage dimensions amplified symptom increases attributable to high neuroticism by 0.67 standard deviations. In contrast, neuroticism was not a significant risk for increases in symptoms among participants with few physical limitations, few social problems or high socio-economic status. Risks from high neuroticism are not shared equally among adults in the USA. Interventions preventing or treating depression or anxiety via neuroticism could be targeted toward vulnerable subpopulations with physical, social or socio-economic disadvantages. Moreover, decreasing these disadvantages may reduce mental health risks from neuroticism.

  20. The impacts of global oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Chuanguo

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. In order to analyze the reactions of different industries to oil price shocks, we focused on four fundamental industries: grains, metals, petrochemicals and oil fats. We separated the oil price shocks into two parts, positive and negative parts, to investigate how commodity markets react when oil prices go up and down. We further studied the extreme price movements, called jumps, existing in the oil markets and how jump behavior has affected China's commodity markets. Our results suggest that asymmetric effects of oil price shocks did exist in the four markets and the negative oil price shocks had stronger influences on the four markets in China. The petrochemicals market suffered most from the oil price shocks, and the grains market was least sensitive to the shocks. When jumps occurred in the crude oil market, the four commodity markets would be affected differently. The oil fats market and petrochemicals market tended to “overreact” to jumps. - Highlights: • We investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. • Jump behavior does exist in the crude oil market. • The impacts of oil price shocks are asymmetric. • China's four commodity markets are affected by the jump behavior

  1. Financial Knudsen number: Breakdown of continuous price dynamics and asymmetric buy-and-sell structures confirmed by high-precision order-book information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yura, Yoshihiro; Takayasu, Hideki; Sornette, Didier; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-10-01

    We generalize the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting, and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterize the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD-JPY and EUR-USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction.

  2. Financial Knudsen number: Breakdown of continuous price dynamics and asymmetric buy-and-sell structures confirmed by high-precision order-book information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yura, Yoshihiro; Takayasu, Hideki; Sornette, Didier; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-10-01

    We generalize the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting, and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterize the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD-JPY and EUR-USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction.

  3. Price duration versus trading volume in high-frequency data for selected DAX companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Mitterer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The properties of the time series of durations between consecutive trades of a particular stock have been studied by many contributors in the literature of financial econometrics. Among them are highly prominent scientists like Engle (2000 and Gourieroux and Jasiak (2001. The importance of this topic, accompanied by the growing availability of (ultra-high-frequency data, has prompted an increase of contributions in recent years. Intensive research based on high-frequency data has several financial motivations. First of all, it is linked with microstructure theory. Secondly, it contributes to the literature on stochastic time deformation. But the most important need for research on the dynamics of trade durations is the necessity to manage liquidity risk. The reason is that durations between the following trades are a widely accepted measures of market liquidity. In addition, their volatility reflects the liquidity risk.

  4. Marketplace pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    As discussed in this chapter, interest in marketplace pricing has been increasing in recent years, reflecting the societal trend toward substituting competition for regulation where appropriate. Competition is valuable because it encourages utilities to make efficient decisions with a minimum of regulatory intervention. It enhances efficiency through the incentive for innovation by the regulated companies and by increasing the likelihood they will come forward with proposals for better services, lower prices or both. Ultimately, consumers are beneficiaries. Marketplace pricing is emblematic of the view that the degree of regulation should reflect the degree of market power, that workably competitive markets should be allowed to operate with as little regulatory interference as possible. The Edison Electric Institute has made perhaps the most detailed proposal on marketplace pricing. It and others perceive numerous benefits from this method of pricing transmission services. Given the undeniable market power resulting from line ownership, FERC has emphasized the need to find a workably competitive market before approving such proposals. The ability to make this distinction without a full-blown antitrust review for every transaction is questionable, and FERC has yet to provide generic guidance. Finally, FERC's legal ability to depart from cost-based standards is questionable

  5. Wavelet low- and high-frequency components as features for predicting stock prices with backpropagation neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecasting model that integrates the discrete wavelet transform (DWT and backpropagation neural networks (BPNN for predicting financial time series. The presented model first uses the DWT to decompose the financial time series data. Then, the obtained approximation (low-frequency and detail (high-frequency components after decomposition of the original time series are used as input variables to forecast future stock prices. Indeed, while high-frequency components can capture discontinuities, ruptures and singularities in the original data, low-frequency components characterize the coarse structure of the data, to identify the long-term trends in the original data. As a result, high-frequency components act as a complementary part of low-frequency components. The model was applied to seven datasets. For all of the datasets, accuracy measures showed that the presented model outperforms a conventional model that uses only low-frequency components. In addition, the presented model outperforms both the well-known auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA model and the random walk (RW process.

  6. A highly efficient pricing method for European-style options based on Shannon wavelets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIn the search for robust, accurate and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we present here the SWIFT method (Shannon Wavelets Inverse Fourier Technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of sharp quantitative

  7. A Highly Efficient Shannon Wavelet Inverse Fourier Technique for Pricing European Options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ortiz-Gracia, Luis; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2016-01-01

    In the search for robust, accurate, and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we here present the SWIFT method (Shannon wavelets inverse Fourier technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of sharp quantitative error

  8. A highly efficient Shannon wavelet inverse Fourier technique for pricing European options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2016-01-01

    htmlabstractIn the search for robust, accurate, and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we here present the SWIFT method (Shannon wavelets inverse Fourier technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of

  9. Dynamic Price Dispersion of Storable Goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Cixiu

    2014-01-01

    with different search costs and willingness to wait. I demonstrate that the high-price-low-price pattern is rational for storable goods. In a Markov-perfect equilibrium, agents’ actions depend on consumer inventory, and purchase decisions are characterized by a critical price. The equilibrium price series...

  10. Patients' views on price shopping and price transparency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semigran, Hannah L; Gourevitch, Rebecca; Sinaiko, Anna D; Cowling, David; Mehrotra, Ateev

    2017-06-01

    Driven by the growth of high deductibles and price transparency initiatives, patients are being encouraged to search for prices before seeking care, yet few do so. To understand why this is the case, we interviewed individuals who were offered access to a widely used price transparency website through their employer. Qualitative interviews. We interviewed individuals enrolled in a preferred provider organization product through their health plan about their experience using the price transparency tool (if they had done so), their past medical experiences, and their opinions on shopping for care. All interviews were transcribed and manually coded using a thematic coding guide. In general, respondents expressed frustration with healthcare costs and had a positive opinion of the idea of price shopping in theory, but 2 sets of barriers limited their ability to do so in reality. The first was the salience of searching for price information. For example, respondents recognized that due to their health plan benefits design, they would not save money by switching to a lower-cost provider. Second, other factors were more important than price for respondents when choosing a provider, including quality and loyalty to current providers. We found a disconnect between respondents' enthusiasm for price shopping and their reported use of a price transparency tool to shop for care. However, many did find the tool useful for other purposes, including checking their claims history. Addressing the barriers to price shopping identified by respondents can help inform ongoing and future price transparency initiatives.

  11. Commodity, pre-salt and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvim, Carlos Feu; Fantine, Jose [Univerisdade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ/COPPE), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao do Programa de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia

    2008-04-15

    'Brazil is essentially an agricultural country' was the economical truism taught in school in the 1950s. The country was under the influence of the coffee cycle that has followed other ones based on extractive or agricultural products in successive cycles since the Colonial period: pau-brasil, sugarcane, gold, cocoa, rubber, etc. Presently commodities dominate our exports and one might ask: is Brazil essentially a commodity-exporting country? The recent publication of the government document 'Productive development policy - innovate and invest to support growth' makes it opportune to discuss the subject. (author)

  12. Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

    2008-01-01

    With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

  13. Another look on the relationships between oil prices and energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lahiani, Amine; Miloudi, Anthony; Benkraiem, Ramzi; Shahbaz, Muhammad

    2017-01-01

    This paper employs the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lags (QARDL) model developed recently by Cho et al. (2015) to investigate the pass-through of oil prices to a set of energy prices. This approach allows analyzing simultaneously short-term connections and long-run cointegrating relationships across a range of quantiles. It also provides insights on the short-run predictive power of oil prices in predicting energy prices while accounting for the cointegration between oil prices and each of the considered energy prices in low, medium and high quantiles. Two key findings emerge from this paper. First, all considered energy prices are shown to be cointegrated with oil price across quantiles meaning that a stationaryequilibriumrelationship exists between single energy price and oil price. Second, we find evidence that oil price is a significant predictor of individual petroleum products prices and natural gas in the short run. This paper has important policy implications for forecasters, energy policy-makers and portfolio managers. - Highlights: • The pass-through of oil prices to a set of energy prices is investigated for US economy. • All considered energy prices are shown to be cointegrated with oil price across quantiles. • Oil price is a significant predictor of individual petroleum products prices in the short run. • Oil price also predicts natural gas prices in the short run.

  14. Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Nielsen, Max; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity....... Analysis of the term structure of futures volatilities reveal that the shorter the length of the futures contract, the more volatility there is. This is because salmon prices exhibit short-term cyclical and seasonal patterns like other agricultural commodities. As such, salmon producers will be better off...

  15. Electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

  16. Delegating pricing power to customers: Pay what you want or name your own price?

    OpenAIRE

    Krämer, Florentin; Schmidt, Klaus M.; Spann, Martin; Stich, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    Pay What You Want (PWYW) and Name Your Own Price (NYOP) are customer driven pricing mechanisms that give customers (some) pricing power. Both have been used in service industries with high fixed costs to price discriminate without setting a reference price. Their participatory and innovative nature gives rise to promotional benefits that do not accrue to posted-price sellers. We explore the nature and effects of these benefits and compare PWYW and NYOP using controlled lab experiments. We sho...

  17. The high price of debt: household financial debt and its impact on mental and physical health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, Elizabeth; Nandi, Arijit; Adam, Emma K; McDade, Thomas W

    2013-08-01

    Household financial debt in America has risen dramatically in recent years. While there is evidence that debt is associated with adverse psychological health, its relationship with other health outcomes is relatively unknown. We investigate the associations of multiple indices of financial debt with psychological and general health outcomes among 8400 young adult respondents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Our findings show that reporting high financial debt relative to available assets is associated with higher perceived stress and depression, worse self-reported general health, and higher diastolic blood pressure. These associations remain significant when controlling for prior socioeconomic status, psychological and physical health, and other demographic factors. The results suggest that debt is an important socioeconomic determinant of health that should be explored further in social epidemiology research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Information pricing based on trusted system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zehua; Zhang, Nan; Han, Hongfeng

    2018-05-01

    Personal information has become a valuable commodity in today's society. So our goal aims to develop a price point and a pricing system to be realistic. First of all, we improve the existing BLP system to prevent cascading incidents, design a 7-layer model. Through the cost of encryption in each layer, we develop PI price points. Besides, we use association rules mining algorithms in data mining algorithms to calculate the importance of information in order to optimize informational hierarchies of different attribute types when located within a multi-level trusted system. Finally, we use normal distribution model to predict encryption level distribution for users in different classes and then calculate information prices through a linear programming model with the help of encryption level distribution above.

  19. S-shape relationship between customer satisfaction and willingness to pay premium prices for high quality cured pork products in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotes-Torres, Alejandro; Muñoz-Gallego, Pablo A; Cotes-Torres, José Miguel

    2012-03-01

    This paper explores 2 different probabilistic models explaining willingness to pay premium prices for high-quality cured products from the swine industry. Seven cured pork products (sausage, fuet, ham, loin, shoulder, salami and pepperoni) were studied in 9 food-stores in Valladolid, Spain. Consumers of the products were interviewed (686 completed surveys). It was found by using mixed effect statistical models that the relationship between willingness to pay a premium price and customer satisfaction had nonlinear behavior, following an S-shape with inverted slope which was the first empirical evidence of this type of behavior in meat products in real market conditions. It was also established that the interaction between satisfaction and current expenditure on the product was significant and indispensable for explaining consumers' willingness to pay premium price for cured pork products. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Price Comovement Between Biodiesel and Natural Gas

    OpenAIRE

    Janda, Karel; Kourilek, Jakub

    2016-01-01

    We study relationship between biodiesel, as a most important biofuel in the EU, relevant feedstock commodities and fossil fuels. Our main interest is to capture relationship between biodiesel and natural gas. They are both used either directly as a fuel or indirectly in form of additives in transport. Therefore, our purpose is to �nd price linkage between biofuel and natural gas to support or reject the claim that they compete as alternative fuels and potential substitutes. The estimated p...

  1. Long-term memory and volatility clustering in high-frequency price changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan; Eom, Cheoljun

    2008-02-01

    We studied the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). For all high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property was detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property was found in the volatility time series. The possible causes of the long-term memory property were investigated using the return data filtered by the AR(1) model, reflecting the short-term memory property, the GARCH(1,1) model, reflecting the volatility clustering property, and the FIGARCH model, reflecting the long-term memory property of the volatility time series. The memory effect in the AR(1) filtered return and volatility time series remained unchanged, while the long-term memory property diminished significantly in the volatility series of the GARCH(1,1) filtered data. Notably, there is no long-term memory property, when we eliminate the long-term memory property of volatility by the FIGARCH model. For all data used, although the Hurst exponents of the volatility time series changed considerably over time, those of the time series with the volatility clustering effect removed diminish significantly. Our results imply that the long-term memory property of the volatility time series can be attributed to the volatility clustering observed in the financial time series.

  2. Role of governance in creating a commodity hub: A comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.P. Haris

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The body of work on natural gas hubs has been expanding rapidly in recent years, with most of the current work examining the creation of gas hubs focusing on either the European experience or the North American experience. In this paper, we adopt a different perspective and place the focus on experience of hub building from other international commodities. We analyse three commodities - crude oil, iron ore and coal, and draw experience on the role of governance in development of hub based prices. In particular, we propose that the role of governance is different at different stages of the pricing transition to market based pricing. Governance could play an important role at the initial stage, building the relevant soft and physical infrastructure which facilitates the reaping of first mover advantage. As the market develops, private sector players may prefer less involvement of governance, which may distort markets. With market stabilization, governance should be focused on maintaining stable rules and regulation for private sector development, as well as monitoring for further changes in global trends. To facilitate the building of a benchmark price, the public sector should adopt a long-term and overarching view on industry growth.

  3. 78 FR 16189 - Transportation of Agricultural Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-14

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 382, 383, 390, 391, 395, 396 [Docket No. FMCSA-2012-0378] RIN 2126-AB58 Transportation of Agricultural...: FMCSA promulgates the regulatory exemptions for the ``transportation of agricultural commodities and...

  4. 7 CFR 1405.9 - Commodity assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Commodity assessments. (a) CCC will deduct from the proceeds of a marketing assistance loan an amount equal... collected in one of the following ways, as requested by the State, but not both: (i) When the proceeds of... the State. (2) CCC will deduct from the proceeds of a marketing assistance loan an amount equal to the...

  5. 2007 commodity flow survey : state summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    This report summarizes and highlights freight shipments for each of the 50 States and the District of Columbia based on the final release of CFS data in December 2009. It provides tables for each States value and weight of shipments, major commodity ...

  6. Commodities Trading: An Essential Economic Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Mary A., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    This issue focuses on commodities trading as an essential economic tool. Activities include critical thinking about marketing decisions and discussion on how futures markets and options are used as important economic tools. Discussion questions and a special student project are included. (EH)

  7. 7 CFR 1401.4 - Commodity certificates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... this section of loan collateral by a person to whom a loan secured by such collateral is made): or... loan collateral—(1) General. Except as otherwise provided in this paragraph and in paragraphs (f) and... commodities pledged as collateral for CCC loans made to such person, at any time on or before the expiration...

  8. 75 FR 65586 - Agricultural Commodity Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-26

    ... juice, wine and beer are ``food'' for purposes of the definition of ``agricultural commodity... beets, beet pulp (used as animal feed), raw sugar, molasses and refined sugar; honey; beer and wine... proposed herein. \\44\\ 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq. B. Cost Benefit Analysis Section 15(a) of the CEA requires the...

  9. Towards microalgal triglycerides in the commodity markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benvenuti, Giulia; Ruiz, Jesús; Lamers, Packo P.; Bosma, Rouke; Wijffels, René H.; Barbosa, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Microalgal triglycerides (TAGs) hold great promise as sustainable feedstock for commodity industries. However, to determine research priorities and support business decisions, solid techno-economic studies are essential. Here, we present a techno-economic analysis of two-step TAG

  10. Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Seel, J; Mills, AD; Wiser, RH

    2018-01-01

    Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low V...

  11. Commodity movement tracking (CMT) : bridging operations and commercial transactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewyta, M.

    2004-01-01

    Enbridge Pipelines Inc. (EPI) operates a network of interconnected pipelines that facilitate the transport of liquid fuels across North America, with operations centralized in Edmonton, Alberta. This paper addressed the issue of accurately tracking the location of commodities transported on EPI pipelines for billing and payment purposes. The role of integrated information systems in meeting the need for high quality information by customers and by EPI was also addressed. The paper presented the Commodity Movement Tracking (CMT) system that is central to achieving the desired accuracy of commercial and financial transactions. CMT tracks inventories and links products to commercial transactions across the pipeline. Batches are tracked from initial receipt to final delivery, incorporating CMT's operational checks and balances, reconciliation steps, process monitoring, and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems data that contribute to inputs equaling outputs. Daily schedules are recorded into the CMT system as events, based on volumetric information derived from the SCADA system. Receipt and delivery events will be electronically recorded into CMT from field flow computers in the near future. CMT modeling considers changes within the line configuration, static pipe diameter changes, as well as packing and draining of the line fill resulting from pressure changes. This paper described the major functional activities of the overall business process, such as nominations, scheduling, commodity movement tracking, leak detection, electronic ticketing, SCADA, and oil accounting. 10 figs.

  12. Oil price reduction impacts on the Iranian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdollah Mahmoodi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available economy. In order to simulate this shock, the global trade analysis project (GTAP model with its data done by using. In the new created data aggregation, oil exporting in Iran and the rest of the world countries as economic new regions, ten new economic sectors have been created, among which the oil is introduced as one sector as well as five endowments. The standard economic closure was changed, and decline in world oil price was simulated in model as a policy shock. The results show that oil export revenue and the mineral commodity export earnings will decrease, but other production sectors’ exports will increase. The trade balance of Iran will be affected negatively and strongly. Also, oil and other services production decreased. In the production sectors’ market, the demand for labor, natural resources, and investment decreased dramatically, and the demand for land increased. Using equivalent variation (EV, changes in Iran’s welfare is high negative. Finally, deflation, reduction in value and quantity of GDP and changes in consumption combination from public to private sector are the other economic impacts of reduction in oil price on Iran’s economic. It is suggested that future studies are done using dynamic models and up-to-date data. In addition, policy makers need to rebound internationally and within OPEC to raise oil prices.

  13. Impacts of changing hardwood lumber consumption and price on stumpage and sawlog prices in Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Luppold; Matthew Bumgardner; T. Eric. McConnell

    2014-01-01

    In the early 2000s, increasing US furniture imports preceded declining US hardwood lumber demand and price. In the summer of 2002, however, hardwood lumber prices started to increase as demand by construction industries increased. By the mid-2000s, hardwood lumber prices hit all-time highs. Lumber prices hit all-time highs for red oak (Quercus spp...

  14. A Simple Model of Pharmaceutical Price Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharya, Jayanta; Vogt, William B

    2003-01-01

    Branded pharmaceutical firms use price and promotional strategy to manage public knowledge about their drugs. We propose a dynamic theory of pharmaceutical pricing and conduct an exploratory empirical analysis inspired by the theory. Our theory predicts a pattern of increasing prices and decreasing promotional activities over a drug's life cycle. Prices are kept low and advertising levels high early in the life cycle in order to build public knowledge about the drug. As knowledge grows, price...

  15. World coal prices and future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

  16. The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Xin; Gongmeng Chen; Michael Firth

    2006-01-01

    This study investigates the efficiency of the Chinese metal futures (i.e. copper and aluminum) traded on China's Shanghai Futures Exchange. First, we thoroughly analyze the development of China's commodity futures markets, which provides a fundamental background. Then we examine the random walk and unbiasedness hypotheses for two metal futures during 1999-2004. Based on the empirical evidence, we argue that China's copper and aluminum futures markets are efficient, and that they aid the process of price discovery because futures prices can be considered as unbiased predictors of future spot prices. We attribute this efficiency to the regulatory changes made in 1999 and the increased financial skills and acumen of the participants in the market.

  17. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  18. The Principles and the Specifics of Trading in Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Dušan; Herbacsková, Anita

    2012-12-01

    In the present period of instability on financial markets, investments in commodities are the solution for elimination of the consequences of inflation and ensure the yield. When investing in commodities, the use of specifics of commodities compared to other assets. The distribution of commodities we can interpret for agricultural commodities, commodities of energy, precious and other metals, and weather. Therefore, in the framework of the investment portfolio are the commodities. This is the reason why one of the most popular types of investment assets now become commodities. In the interpretation of particular commodities we talk about commodity futures. The reason is that the spot market with commodities is limited storage facilities. The growth of the popularity, which allows a wide range of commodities, has caused that in addition to from institutional investors and speculators for trade may involve even small investors. This development will be supplemented by interpretation of the charts and figers, which will be commented and used for generalization of knowledge. Finally, the article will be interpreted by the further development of the market for commodities as it by article assumes from the results of research.

  19. Oil price, biofuels and food supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

    2011-01-01

    The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels. - Highlights: ► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply. ► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline. ► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do. ► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise. ► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.

  20. Transfer Pricing - An Innovative Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona MAXIM

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents transfer pricing and elements of drafting the transfer pricing file by the big companies. The transfer pricing procedure was founded based upon Order no. 442/2016 and the Fiscal Procedure Code and it represents a method upon which the tax base is transferred from a high tax country to a country with low taxation. This legislation outlines the conditions which companies must observe in order to draft the transfer pricing documentation and the significance thresholds. The purpose to draft a transfer pricing file is to reduce the differences between prices and market value and the actual results of company taxation. Economic double taxation occurs when tax authorities apply price adjustments because the company did not respect the principle of market value. Keeping records of transfer pricing and practicing a price aligned to market requirements contribute to an understanding of business development and the creation of appropriate tax planning. Taking into account all these aspects and the fact that any taxpayer is tempted to pay the lowest possible fees, tax havens become an option. In this context we can speak of a tax haven as a loophole in the use of the market price.

  1. Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Li, Jianfeng; Zhou, Ying; Qian, Yubo

    2017-11-01

    This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China's RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index.

  2. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  3. 15 CFR 740.18 - Agricultural commodities (AGR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... commodity meets the definition of “agricultural commodities” in part 772 of the EAR; (2) The commodity is... international terrorism or the transaction raises nonproliferation concerns, you may not use License Exception...

  4. Methodology for oil prices projections: a study about oil prices differentials for Brent, Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin; Metodologia de projecao de precos de petroleos: um estudo dos diferenciais de precos entre o 'Brent', Arabe Leve, 'Bonny Light' e Marlin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Giovani; Aragao, Amanda; Valle, Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Oil is not homogenous commodity in terms of its chemical and physical properties, differing from one to another in density (API degree), sulfur content, acidity etc. Such properties imply in price differentials (discount or premium) for each crude to another in the international market. This study presents a basic model to forecasts price of various crudes based on one 'marker' or reference crude price by applying econometric formulations. The relevant crudes for the study are Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin, while the 'marker' crude is the Brent. Based on a scenario for the Brent price, prices of Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin are forecast to 2020. Findings show that price differentials to Brent are minus US$ 5.09-6.57/b (discount) to Arab Light, plus US$ 1.56-3.47/b (premium) to Bonny Light and minus US$ 9.02-13.95/b (discount) to Marlin in the period analyzed (in constant prices of May/2007). Although such figures are in harmony with expected results (theoretical foundations) of discount/premium by crude quality, structural changes in oil market (in particular, large modifications in world refining conversion capacity), catalyzed by high oil prices and energy policy, may reduce forecast strength of the specifications proposed. (author)

  5. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinsch, Michael; Kaddar, Miloud; Schmitt, Sarah

    2014-05-08

    Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms.The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased medicine price transparency and have the

  6. Intertemporal speculation, shortages and the political economy of price reform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1992-01-01

    Price controls often focus on commodities that are storable and can thus be used in intertemporal speculation. Second, opposition to dismantling of controls is often based on claims of low supply response, and greatly bolstered if a strong supply response fails to materialise. This is especially

  7. Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d'Artis

    2011-01-01

    The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)

  8. The transmission and management of price volatility in food supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assefa, Tsion Taye

    2016-01-01

    The 2006-2011 period has been marked by increased volatility in food an agricultural commodity prices at a global level. In the EU, the continuous liberalization of agricultural markets under the Common Agricultural Policy has led to the exposure of EU agricultural to increasing market price

  9. Legal-Economic Barriers To Price Transfers in Food Supply Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremmers, H.J.; Meulen, van der B.M.J.; Sredojevic, Z.; Wijnands, J.H.M.

    2012-01-01

    Recent price movements have put food supply chains under pressure. On the one side, upward price tendencies on commodity markets result in higher costs to processing firms. On the other side, these firms are confronted with a strong retail sector that is able to prevent compensation to protect

  10. 17 CFR 229.1204 - (Item 1204) Oil and gas production, production prices and production costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... production, production prices and production costs. 229.1204 Section 229.1204 Commodity and Securities... production, production prices and production costs. (a) For each of the last three fiscal years disclose... production cost, not including ad valorem and severance taxes, per unit of production. Instruction 1 to Item...

  11. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  12. A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

  13. Financialization, Crisis and Commodity Correlation Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Annastiina Silvennoinen; Susan Thorp

    2010-01-01

    We study bi-variate conditional volatility and correlation dynamics for individual commodity futures and financial assets from May 1990-July 2009 using DSTCC-GARCH (Silvennoinen and Terasvirta 2009). These models allow correlation to vary smoothly between extreme states via transition functions driven by indicators of market conditions. Expected stock volatility and money manager open interest in futures markets are relevant transition variables. Results point to increasing integration betwee...

  14. Hedging Cash Flows from Commodity Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Dahlgran, Roger A.

    2005-01-01

    Agribusinesses make long-term plant-investment decisions based on discounted cash flow. It is therefore incongruous for an agribusiness firm to use cash flow as a plant-investment criterion and then to completely discard cash flow in favor of batch profits as an operating objective. This paper assumes that cash flow and its stability is important to commodity processors and examines methods for hedging cash flows under continuous processing. Its objectives are (a) to determine how standard he...

  15. LNG: a commodity in the making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chabrelie, M.F

    2006-07-01

    Although still far from being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realisation of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7%/year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  16. LNG: a commodity in the making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabrelie, M.F.

    2006-01-01

    Although still far from being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realisation of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7%/year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  17. LNG: a commodity in the making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabrelie, M.F.

    2006-01-01

    Although still far being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realization of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7% year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  18. Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Les

    2012-01-01

    Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

  19. Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Logistics, Commodities, and Waste Management Requirements for Scale-Up of Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2011-01-01

    Background The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. Methods and Findings This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Conclusions Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in “Voluntary Medical

  20. Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianna Edgil

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. CONCLUSIONS: Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in