The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

22 CFR 201.64 - Application of the price rules to commodities.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

.... 201.64 Section 201.64 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES AND PROCEDURES... purchase price of a commodity exceeds the price in comparable export sales or in comparable domestic sales... the determination of any prevailing market price of any commodity or any prevailing price or maximum...

Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xolani Ndlovu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

Statistical microeconomics and commodity prices: theory and empirical results.

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E

2016-01-13

A review is made of the statistical generalization of microeconomics by Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is given by the unequal time correlation function and is modelled by the Feynman path integral based on an action functional. The correlation functions of the model are defined using the path integral. The existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)) has been empirically ascertained in Baaquie et al. (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). The model's action functionals for different commodities has been empirically determined and calibrated using the unequal time correlation functions of the market commodity prices using a perturbation expansion (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are empirically studied and their auto-correlation for up to 300 days is described by the model to an accuracy of R(2)>0.90-using only six parameters. © 2015 The Author(s).

Increase of food commodities prices and their relationship with biofuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz-Alvarez, Marianela; Piloto-Rodríguez, Ramón

2017-01-01

Biofuels are without any doubt, an alternative to the actual energy matrix. In this work, through the analysis of the main influencing factors in the increase of food commodities prices, is demonstrated that this phenomena is not exclusive due to biofuels production. Comparing the food commodities prices with biofuels production and petroleum prices respectively, a stronger correlation between food and petroleum prices was observed, demonstrating the strong influence of the conventional energy market on agricultural products. (author)

Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Borychowski Michał

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclusions to some extent is a synthesis of considerations and includes the authors’ opinions concerning determinants and an attempt to identify which ones were the most important in the growth of agricultural commodity prices. These increases in agricultural commodity prices resulted from many factors and it is very difficult to separate the individual impact of each of them, because they occurred in parallel. However, it is possible to indicate several main reasons for these price increases, which are: adverse changes in supply-demand relations in agricultural markets, increases in oil prices (and increases of the volatility of those prices, development of biofuel production from agricultural commodities (the first generation biofuels, dollar depreciation, an increase in operations of a speculative nature on commodity markets and improper economic policy that created an environment for the growth of prices of agricultural products.

Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trujillo Barrera, A.A.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2013-01-01

Abstract Is the relationship between energy and agricultural commodities an important factor in the increasing price variability of food commodities? Findings from the literature appear to be mixed and highly influenced by the data frequency used in those analysis. A recurrent task in time series

Market Structure and Price Transmission of Eggs Commodity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdul Aziz Ahmad

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Purposes of this research are to determine some characteristics of distribution channel, market structure, and price maker transmission in purebred chicken egg commodity in Banyumas District, Central Java Province. Primary data applied on this research is from all channel distribution levels; from producers to final consumers. Meanwhile secondary data is collected from government official sources, such as BPS-Statistic of Banyumas Disrict, Banyumas Department of Industry, Trading and Cooperation, and previous researches which has been made by researcher team. Sample determining is directed by proportional random sampling methods. Some measurements are applied to this research, including to; Herfindahl Index (HI, Concentration Ratio (CF, and Minimum Efficiency Scale (MES to investigate market structure; and Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT to determine price transmission mechanism model. This research finds that (1 the distribution channel of egg commodity is spitted to different channel, the first channel: egg producer – retail traders – final consumers, and second channel: egg producers – whole seller – retail traders – final consumers; (2 market structure which is created to this farming specific commodity is perfect market; (3 price transmission mechanism analysis statistically shows that there is almost no existence of dominant power in price formation.

Optimal Nonlinear Pricing, Bundling Commodities and Contingent Services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Podesta, Marion; Poudou, Jean-Christophe

2008-01-01

In this paper, we propose to analyze optimal nonlinear pricing when a firm offers in a bundle a commodity and a contingent service. The paper studies a mechanism design where all private information can be captured in a single scalar variable in a monopoly context. We show that to propose the package for commodity and service is less costly for the consumer, the firm has lower consumers' rent than the situation where it sells their good and contingent service under an independent pricing strategy. In fact, the possibility to use price discrimination via the supply of package is dominated by the fact that it is costly for the consumer to sign two contracts. Bundling energy and a contingent service is a profitable strategy for a energetician monopoly practising optimal nonlinear tariff. We show that the rates of the energy and the contingent service depend to the optional character of the contingent service and depend to the degree of complementarity between commodities and services. (authors)

Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

Science.gov (United States)

van Wingerden, Marijn; Marx, Christine; Kalenscher, Tobias

2015-01-01

Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget conditions

Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats’ Choices between Differently Priced Commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Kalenscher, Tobias

2015-01-01

Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers’ sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget

Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.

We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... by considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the hedging-performance of the models. Third, we model the futures surface rather than the spot price process, and from the no-arbitrage relationship between spot and futures prices we...

On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Joets, Marc

2013-12-01

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the price of oil and a large dataset of commodity prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel co-integration tests, our findings show that the WTI and commodity prices are not linked in the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we show that short-run relations exist, mainly from the price of crude oil to commodity prices. We thus implement a panel VAR estimation with an impulse response function analysis. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) fast co-movements are highlighted, while (ii) market efficiency is emphasized. (authors)

Exchange Market Pressure, Stock Prices, and Commodity Prices East of the Euro

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Scott W. Hegerty

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Aim/purpose - This paper aims to examine connections between the exchange, equity, commodity and commodity markets of a set of Central and Eastern European (CEE economies using monthly time-series data. In particular, we examine whether stock - or commodity - price changes might put pressure on these currencies to depreciate, and whether these pressures are transmitted within the region or from larger neighbors. Design/methodology/approach - This paper creates monthly indices of Ex-change Market Pressure (EMP from 1998 to 2017 using a combination of currency depreciation, reserve losses, and changes in interest-rate differentials for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania. After examining these indices for evidence of currency 'crises', and their components for evidence of changes in currency policy, Vector Autoregressive (VAR methods such as Granger causality and impulse-response functions are used to examine connections between EMP, domestic and foreign stock returns, and changes in commodity prices in the first four countries listed. Findings - While EMP increased in 2008, and the degree of central banks' currency- -market interventions decreased afterward, this paper uncovers key differences among countries. In particular, the Czech Republic is relatively insulated from international transmissions, while Hungary is more susceptible to global spillovers and Poland is exposed to events originating elsewhere in the CEE region. Ukraine shows bidirectional causality between its EMP and stock indices, and finds that pressure on the hryvnia increases if commodity or oil prices decline. Research implications/limitations - This study adds to the relatively limited literature regarding this region, and highlights particular vulnerabilities for both individual countries and specific neighbors; further research is necessary to uncover the channels of transmission using economic modeling. Originality

Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

2012-01-01

In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

The Character of Price Transmission Within Milk Commodity Chain in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbora Dudová

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is focused on price transmission within milk commodity chain in the Czech Republic. The article distinct on milk products with low value added – cow milk/paper box milk and products with higher value added – cow milk/butter. Price transmission is measured by the coefficient of elasticity of the price transmission (EPT; price transfer is examined in demand as well as supply direction. Next part of the analysis measures price differences (by coefficient determination – R2 in supply direction. Last step in this analysis is the impact of time delay at the price transmission process (measured by R2. The price transmission is asymmetric in the supply direction on both parts of commodity chain (EPT = 0.29 and 0.62, in the demand direction is more symmetric (EPT = 0.31 and 1.02. The assumption of better transfer of positive price changes was confirmed. At the commodity chain of milk/dairy products the time delay is not so much important. With both tested commodity chains there was found higher power of downstream markets, proving demand driven behaviour of these commodity chains, and there was detected oligopsony market structure as well. The data represent monthly prices on both chosen vertical levels in the period of 1/2000–8/2013.

Agricultural Commodities and Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Their Relationship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleni Zafeiriou

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Within the last few decades, the extended use of biodiesel and bioethanol has established interlinkages between energy markets and agricultural commodity markets. The present work examines the bivariate relationships of crude oil–corn and crude oil–soybean futures prices with the assistance of the ARDL cointegration approach. Our findings confirm that crude oil prices affect the prices of agricultural products used in the production of biodiesel, as well as of ethanol, validating the interaction of energy and agricultural commodity markets. The practical value of the present work is that the findings provide policy makers with insight into the interlinkages between agricultural and energy markets to promote biodiesel or bioethanol by affecting crude oil prices. The novelty of the present work stands on the use of futures prices that incorporate all available information and thus are more appropriate to identify supply and demand shocks and price spillovers than real prices. Finally, the period of study includes extremely low, as well as extremely high, crude oil prices and the results illustrate that biofuels cannot be substituted for crude oil and protect economies from energy volatility.

Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

2015-05-01

Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

The Impact of Trade Policies on Spiraling Prices in International Agricultural Commodity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnes Ghibuțiu

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Since the mid-2000s food prices have been on an upward trend. In the first months of 2011, agricultural commodity prices reached an all-time high, fuelling fears about the imminent outbreak of a new food crisis, similar to the 1973/74 and 2006/08 ones. Behind concerns about increased price levels and volatility in international agricultural commodity markets lie concerns about food security. Hence, the international community is now under pressure to urgently find solutions for tempering strong upward fluctuations in prices for many major food commodities. Trade policy changes are increasingly discussed as a major contributing factor to food price surges. This paper addresses some issues related to the recurrent global food crises from the perspective of trade policy, specifically export restrictions. After a brief review of the fundamental drivers of the upward trend in real food prices (rising global population and income, climate change, high oil prices, increasing cereal use for biofuel production, and financial speculation, it examines the upsurge in agricultural export restrictions over the recent years. Relying on WTO's trade policy monitoring exercise, it highlights typology, motivations and effects of the newly introduced export restrictions, and finds that a major factor behind their recent proliferation is the lack of effective and binding multilateral rules concerning these trade policy instruments. The paper argues that strenghtening and improving WTO's rules and disciplines is essential for mitigating increased price pressure and volatility as well as the associated food security risks. While the issue of export restrictions is currently the topic of discussions under the Doha Round, trade negotiations are in impasse since 2008. Hence, urgent and successful conclusion of the round would be an essential step. In the meanwhile, a closer regular monitoring of all forms of export restrictions would help to provide at least more

Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franco Rosa

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

2011-09-15

Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2011-01-01

Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

Cross-commodity hedges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simard, T.

1999-01-01

Energy risk management is the principal topic of this paper. Four major subjects are examined: cross-commodity trading objectives (reduce the risk of an underlying exposure in another commodity); portfolio risk reduction (an Alberta power distributor exposed to high pool prices could protect against high pool prices through a fixed price purchase of Alberta natural gas); tailoring pricing to customer needs (sell power to the gas producer indexed to the price of gas); and (4) reducing insurance costs (rather than purchasing downside protection (puts) individually against oil and gas prices, a producer could purchase a basket option). Since the key issue in cross-commodity transactions is the estimation of correlation, it is important to be prepared to alter correlation assumptions. 1 tab., 2 figs

International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond

OpenAIRE

Ciccone, Antonio

2018-01-01

A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast wit...

The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chuanguo; Chen, Xiaoqing

2014-01-01

This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China. - Highlights: • We investigated the impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. • The aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities. • The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. • The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices

Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

OpenAIRE

Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

2017-01-01

We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Addison, Tony; Ghoshray, Atanu

2014-01-01

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we define an auxiliary variable that can potentially capture the definition of a price shock that allows us to determine whether the response of per capita Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in sub-Sahara...

Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

2017-01-01

The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

OpenAIRE

Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2013-01-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise, consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis t...

Price development evaluation of chosen plant commodities in agra­rian market in the Slovak Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrik Rovný

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to evaluate the price development of the chosen commodities in plant production in Slovakia and to focus on the factors influencing the increase or decrease in the price of commodities on the domestic and foreign markets. In 2008 the prices of the products in a year–on–year plant production increased by 1.6 %. The price of the plant products, including fruits and ve­ge­tab­les recorded the biggest increase since January 2008 until October 2008. The biggest increase in prices was recorded in June (increase of 52.7%. The high prices of oil plants and legume were one of the causes in a year–on–year price increase (oil plants increase by 23.3% and legume −15.7%. Price development on the domestic market of cereals and oil plants was influenced in the first three terms by growing stock–exchange value and the high demand from the side of foreign buyers connected with the increasing production of biofuels. On the other hand, in the last term of the year 2008, there can be seen the rapid decrease of the prices of cereals and oil plants because of the high production and the development of the world prices. The prices of fruits, evaluated in 2004–2008, recorded the biggest increase in January and February 2008 (in January 2008 – increase by 22.1% and February 2008 – increase by 23.2%. Prices of vegetables slightly grew in the monitored period. The biggest increase was recorded in December 2006 and in January and February 2007 (more than 15%.

Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US

OpenAIRE

Verheyen, Florian

2010-01-01

The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causality tests and SVAR models to US data. The results corroborate the notion that there was a strong link be...

International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

2007-01-01

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

2009-01-01

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

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Marcela Lascsáková

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Algieri, Bernardina

2014-01-01

Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of the several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity prices. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor's (S and P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity is not. This would imply that biofuel policy should be carefully monitored in order to avoid excessive first-generation subsidization, which would trigger a fuel vs. food conflict. - Highlights: • The effects of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices are examined. • A GARCH methodology in univariate and multivariate settings is adopted. • The results show that a complex of drivers is relevant in explaining commodity futures returns. • Energy market returns play a significant role in pushing commodity returns. • The increase in monetary liquidity does not contribute to changes in futures returns on a daily basis

International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Markus Bruckner; Antonio Ciccone

2010-01-01

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

Science.gov (United States)

Edelstein, Paul S.

Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures

Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

2013-01-01

In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector...... price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining...... autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda – Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial...

Prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels in long-run relationships: a comparative study for the USA and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Tanja; Bentzen, Jan

2013-01-01

Time-series data for the USA and Europe representing prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels are used for a comparative analysis of long-run price relationships. There is some evidence for cointegration between ethanol and gasoline, especially for the USA, and in the case...... of biodiesel, stronger evidence of cointegration between biodiesel, diesel and soya oil for both the USA and Europe. Finally, biofuel prices do not seem to influence agricultural commodity prices or fossil fuel prices....

Predicting prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand using combined approach emphasizing on data pre-processing technique

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Thoranin Sujjaviriyasup

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In this research, a combined approach emphasizing on data pre-processing technique is developed to forecast prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand. The future prices play significant role in decision making to cultivate crops in next year. The proposed model takes ability of MODWT to decompose original time series data into more stable and explicit subseries, and SVR model to formulate complex function of forecasting. The experimental results indicated that the proposed model outperforms traditional forecasting models based on MAE and MAPE criteria. Furthermore, the proposed model reveals that it is able to be a useful forecasting tool for prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand

Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns : Time-Series Assessment

OpenAIRE

de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.

2014-01-01

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of uncondi...

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2015-01-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat “gas money” as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series. PMID:26937053

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS.

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Justine S; Shapiro, Jesse M

2013-11-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series.

Financialization of commodities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michał Falkowski

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The basic theory of price formation tells us how the price of a particular asset will change based on the adjustment to its supply and demand. However, values of assets are also determined by other business fundamentals, company’s and world events, human psychology, and investors’ belief about the possible future profit. In recent history that lead to an increase of individual and institutional investors’ interest in allocating their resources in commodity markets. With a large inflow of capital commodities’ prices started to rise making them attractive components to effective investment portfolios. The presented paper addresses the issue of so called commodities ‘financialization’ process. It looks at the main factors standing behind commodities’ price movements and to what extent financial market participants contributed to commodities price volatility in recent years. Based on the data examined it distinguishes the involvement of both commercial and non-commercial traders in short and long term periods of time. As well as explaining the impact of growing investors’ interest in commodity markets it defines other market forces - like currency appreciations and emerging markets - as being part of increased volatility in raw and soft commodity markets. Along with market examination the paper focuses on possible future outcomes in attempts to regulate commodities derivatives markets and potential effects of those efforts.

Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

1999-01-01

The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

THE IMPACT OF THE RECENT FEDERAL RESERVE LARGESCALE ASSET PURCHASES ON THE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES: A HISTORICAL DECOMPOSITION

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Sayed H. Saghaian

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the effects of the recent Federal Reserve’s purchases of longterm assets on prices of agricultural commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases began at the end of 2008, after the Great Recession, and the second purchases began in November of 2010. The commodities included in this analysis are meats (beef, pork, and broilers, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice, and softs (sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton. Using historical decompositions, we find significant increases in the nominal agricultural prices of ten out of 12 agricultural commodities under investigation from the second large-scale asset purchases (in 2010 but the first set large-scale asset purchases had only two positive effects.

The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis

OpenAIRE

Sanidas, Elias

2005-01-01

The Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overw...

Linkages among commodity futures prices in the recent financial crisis: An application of cointegration tests with a structural break

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Yoichi Tsuchiya

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among non-agricultural commodity futures prices when a structural break is taken into account, there is no such relationship without allowing for a structural break. We also show that these break points, in fact, occur a few months before the recent global financial crisis. Although the previous literature broadly casts doubt on such price co-movements, our results confirm that market performance improved during the sample period.

Impacts of the Federal Energy Acts and Other Influences on Prices of Agricultural Commodities and Food

OpenAIRE

Ferris, John N.

2013-01-01

Most of the increase in ethanol production in the 2008-2012 period can be attributed to the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) and earlier federal energy legislation. The expansion in U.S. biofuel production, particularly ethanol, was the predominant cause of the elevated commodity prices. Other influences documented were a weak dollar, speculation and an increasingly inelastic commodity demand function. The supply function displayed more elasticity as crop farmers responded ...

If the Song has No Price, is it Still a Commodity? : Rethinking the Commodification of Digital Music

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Rasmus Fleischer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In music streaming services like Spotify, discrete pieces of music no longer has a price, as has traditionally been the case in music retailing, both analog and digital. This article discusses the theoretical and practical implications of this shift towards subscriptions, starting from a critical review of recent literature dealing with the commodification of music. The findings have a relevance that is not limited to music or digital media, but also apply more broadly on the study of commodification. At the theoretical level, the article compares two ways of defining the commodity, one structural (Marx, one situational (Appadurai, Kopytoff, arguing for the necessity of a theory that can distinguish commodities from all that which is not (yet commodified. This is demonstrated by taking Spotify as a case, arguing that it does not sell millions of different commodities to its users, but only one: the subscription itself. This has broad economic and cultural implications, of which four are highlighted: (1 The user of Spotify has no economic incentive to limit music listening, because the price of a subscription is the same regardless of the quantity of music consumed. (2 For the same reason, Spotify as a company cannot raise its revenues by making existing customers consume more of the product, but only by raising the number of subscribers, or by raising the price of a subscription. (3 Within platforms like Spotify, it is not possible to use differential pricing of musical recordings, as has traditionally been the case in music retail. Accordingly, record companies or independent artists hence can no longer compete for listeners by offering their music at a discount. (4 Within the circuit of capital. Spotify may actually be better understood as a commodity producer than as a distributor, implying a less symbiotic relationship to the recorded music industry.

Analysis of consumer behaviour when purchasing selected commodity groups concerning the effect of price, habit, discount and product characteristics

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Jitka Poměnková

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is consumer behaviour analysis when purchasing selected commodity groups concerning the effect of price, habit, discount and product characteristics. Analysis proceed from the Czech household marketing research, where 726 households were electronically questioned. As mentioned above, selected factors for the analysis were habit, products‘ characteristics, price and discount actions.Primary aim is to measure the correspondence of selected factors influence on consumer behaviour during purchase decision making process of selected commodity groups. Interpretation is based on two-tier evaluation. First level represents commodity groups distinction by the character of goods and subsequent evaluation of goods characteristics correspondence in accordance with each influencing factor. Second one represents behaviour of commodity group in cross-section of selected factors. For consumer behaviour analysis chi-square test was used. Before its application the data set (responses was divided according to the ten-point scale into three interval’ groups.

Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

2012-12-01

Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirantes, Andrés García; Población, Javier; Serna, Gregorio

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the commodity pricing literature by consistently modeling the convenience yield with its empirically observed properties. Specifically, in this paper, we show how a four-factor model for the stochastic behavior of commodity prices, with two long- and short-term factors and two additional seasonal factors, may accommodate some of the most important empirically observed characteristics of commodity convenience yields, such as the mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. Based on this evidence, a theoretical model is presented and estimated to characterize the commodity convenience yield dynamics that are consistent with previous findings. We also show that commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields than through futures prices. - Highlights: • Energy commodity convenience yields exhibit mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. • We present a model for convenience yields accounting for their observed characteristics. • Commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields

Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

Science.gov (United States)

Damos, Petros

2014-05-01

The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James J Elser

Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

A dataset on tail risk of commodities markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Robert J; Vo, Duc H; Pham, Thach N; Singh, Abhay K

2017-12-01

This article contains the datasets related to the research article "The long and short of commodity tails and their relationship to Asian equity markets"(Powell et al., 2017) [1]. The datasets contain the daily prices (and price movements) of 24 different commodities decomposed from the S&P GSCI index and the daily prices (and price movements) of three share market indices including World, Asia, and South East Asia for the period 2004-2015. Then, the dataset is divided into annual periods, showing the worst 5% of price movements for each year. The datasets are convenient to examine the tail risk of different commodities as measured by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as well as their changes over periods. The datasets can also be used to investigate the association between commodity markets and share markets.

COMMODITY MARKET REGULATION: EXPORTING COUNTRIES VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES

OpenAIRE

Souza, Leonardo Silveira

2012-01-01

The high in commodity prices in the international market in the last decade, tensions escalated between exporting and importing commodities countries, the extent of having their demands and pressures discussed in the main international organizations, especially in the G20. As altas nas cotações das commodities no mercado internacional na última década acirraram as tensões entre países exportadores e importadores de commodities, a ponto de terem suas reivindicações e pressões debatidas no...

The Influence of Agricultural Commodity on F&B Company’s Performance in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rofikoh Rokhim

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This research examines the influence of agricultural commodity price movements on stock price and gross profit of food and beverage companies in Indonesia, as well as the effect of volatility prices of agricultural commodities. Using time series data of food and beverages (F&B companies that are listed at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX, this research calculating the event studies to find the abnormal returns. The results showed that the movement of agricultural commodity prices has a positive effect on stock prices of F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and sugar. Agricultural commodity prices also affect positively on gross profit F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and palm oil. The increase in prices of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of a positive cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies. The results also showed that the decline of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of negative cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies.

An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

2009-01-01

Many industries are exposed to weather risk. Weather derivatives can play a key role in hedging and diversifying such risk because the uncertainty in a company's profit function can be correlated to weather condition which affects diverse industry sectors differently. Unfortunately the weather derivatives market is a classical example of an incomplete market that is not amenable to standard methodologies used for derivative pricing in complete markets. In this paper, we develop an equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting. The model is constructed in the context of a stylized economy where agents optimize their hedging portfolios which include weather derivatives that are issued in a fixed quantity by a financial underwriter. The supply and demand resulting from hedging activities and the supply by the underwriter are combined in an equilibrium pricing model under the assumption that all agents maximize some risk averse utility function. We analyze the gains due to the inclusion of weather derivatives in hedging portfolios and examine the components of that gain attributable to hedging and to risk sharing. (author)

Outlook '98 - Commodity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simard, T.

1998-01-01

Canadian oil and natural gas producers'' participation in commodity and foreign exchange markets to alter the pricing characteristics of their commodity portfolios was reviewed. It was concluded that through the various risk management structures available from financial and physical market participants, Canadian oil and gas producers retain the ongoing ability to design, pro-actively, their desired exposure to oil and gas prices. Various industry-wide re-examination of risk management programs have taken place during the past two years. Based on these studies, the industry anticipates material volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil and Alberta natural gas prices throughout 1998. Furthermore, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the price differentials between WTI crude and Canadian oil streams, and between Alberta gas prices and other North American regional gas markets. Against this background of uncertainty, it is reasonable to predict that companies will use risk management strategies in an effort to outperform industry average prices, thereby ensuring that pro-active risk management activity will continue throughout 1998

On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

2013-01-01

A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given. - Highlights: • Theoretical model to forecast marginal costs of non-renewable resources. • Tracks the consumption and costs of non-renewable resources. • For use in economic or technology models

Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma

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Pankaj Kumar GUPTA

2012-11-01

Full Text Available With the current pace of growth, India would emerge as a major player in the international market in terms of commodity consumption, production and trade. Going by trade volume and also the possibly as an identifiable influence on the price making process on the essential commodities, the futures and spot markets have shown major variations. Increased volatility in asset prices has been a major reason behind the integration of domestic financial markets with the international financial sector accentuating the demand for the trading in the derivative market. Though organized commodity trading has been in from the nineteenth century in India, the commodity derivative markets in the new form with nationwide electronic trading and access have opened the gates for speculators, hedgers and other market participants to capitalize on the development. The robust growth of the commodity markets can be observed in terms of number of commodities trade volumes and growing number of both the market participants and the commodity exchanges. Liquidity booms reflected by loose monetary policy are responsible for major surge in commodity prices globally in addition to direct tangible impacts of oil prices especially in developing countries with heavy oil imports like India. Futures markets are created to fulfill genuine desires economic functions of hedging and price discovery. But, enormous futures trading observed on the commodity exchanges have raised a host of issues like inflation guided by the fuelling principle implying the direct relationship between volatility and inflation. Huge price volatility in futures segment on the commodity exchanges has therefore raised concerns relating to the market efficiencies, infrastructure and knowledge and also their consequential impact on cash markets. The demand and supply side of the commodity price mechanism is traditionally governed by numerous factors including the climatic conditions, availability of critical

Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Escalante

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

A Preference-Free Formula to Value Commodity Derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rodriguez, J.C.

2007-01-01

This paper studies a new model of commodity prices in which the stochastic convenience yield is an affine function of past commodity returns. While preserving market completeness, the model exhibits price nonstationarity and mean reversion under the martingale measure, and, as a consequence, it is

Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Zibin; Lohr, Luanne; Escalante, Cesar; Wetzstein, Michael

2010-01-01

Sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short-run versus the long-run impacts. Using time-series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities, the aim is to investigate the long-run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short-run interactions. Results indicate no direct long-run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices, and limited if any direct short-run relationships. In terms of short-run price movements, sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice. With sugar the number one world input for ethanol, results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short-run agricultural commodity prices. Overall, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event (shock).

Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

2011-12-01

In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets

OpenAIRE

Acharya, Viral V; Lochstoer, Lars; Ramadorai, Tarun

2009-01-01

Motivated by the literature on limits-to-arbitrage, we build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers' inventory holdings, and thus spot prices. Consistent with our model, producers' default risk forecasts futures returns, spot pri...

17 CFR 32.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.3 Unlawful commodity option transactions. (a) On and after... extend credit in lieu thereof) from an option customer as payment of the purchase price in connection...

Forecasting short-run crude oil price using high- and low-inventory variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye, Michael; Zyren, John; Shore, Joanne

2006-01-01

Since inventories have a lower bound or a minimum operating level, economic literature suggests a nonlinear relationship between inventory level and commodity prices. This was found to be the case in the short-run crude oil market. In order to explore this inventory-price relationship, two nonlinear inventory variables are defined and derived from the monthly normal level and relative level of OECD crude oil inventories from post 1991 Gulf War to October 2003: one for the low inventory state and another for the high inventory state of the crude oil market. Incorporation of low- and high-inventory variables in a single equation model to forecast short-run WTI crude oil prices enhances the model fit and forecast ability

Managing commodity risks in highway contracts : quantifying premiums, accounting for correlations among risk factors, and designing optimal price-adjustment contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-01

It is a well-known fact that macro-economic conditions, such as prices of commodities (e.g. oil, : cement and steel) affect the cost of construction projects. In a volatile market environment, highway : agencies often pass such risk to contractors us...

Preços de commodities e nível de atividade em uma pequena economia aberta: evidências empíricas para o estado do Espírito Santo Commodity prices and activity level in a small open economy: empirical evidence for the State of Espírito Santo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães

2011-12-01

's economy compared to the national economy and other Brazilian states will also be measured. The results obtained reveal five distinct empirical patterns: (i given the state's high degree of openness, the impacts of commodity price fluctuations tend to be stronger when compared to Brazil and other Brazilian States; (ii Granger-causality test results show that commodity prices precede output levels both in the case of the State and the country; (iii a similar result occurs when a broad set of economic variables related to the State of Espírito Santo are considered; (iv a positive shock to commodity prices causes output to initially rise , followed by a contraction, with this variable displaying a permanently higher level in the long run; (v variance decomposition results show that, on average, the quantitative impacts of commodity price shocks are larger in the case of the State than the country. The results obtained are robust with regards to several specification issues, such as different stationary transformations of data, as well as distinct number of lags employed in Granger-causality tests. These results are important in the sense of providing a better understanding of the effects of commodity price variations on a small, open economy, as seems to be the case for the State of Espírito Santo.

Managing commodity markets: the case of OPEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salman, R.; Ferroukhi, R.

1993-01-01

Since primary commodity producers first took control of their natural resources, they have attempted to utilize production/price management with varying degrees of success. As a tool aimed at regulating, rather than controlling, commodity markets, this type of resource management is an essential means of achieving realistic economic returns, which, in the long run, serves the interests of the producer of the commodity in question, as well as its consumer. By regulating commodity markets in times of stable prices producing countries would benefit from a steady and constant level of export earnings, thus allowing them to achieve a sustainable level of economic development. As far as the oil market is concerned, stable prices, set in a range favourable to both producers and consumers, would give investors the confidence needed for long-term exploration. This is particularly important for a commodity such as oil, at a time when the lead time between exploration starting and actual production getting under way is increasing. Not only would producers benefit from stable export earnings, which are an essential requirement for the planning of their development process, but consuming countries would at the same time benefit in two ways: first, they would gain security of supply; and second, as fluctuations in their expenditure for this commodity are reduced, they would be a position to manage their economies more efficiently. (author)

An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble : The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frankema, Ewout; Williamson, Jeffrey; Woltjer, Pieter

2015-01-01

This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net

How Macroecomic Factors Influence the Commodity Market in the Financialization Period: The Case of S & P GSCI Commodity Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamil Smolík

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In connection to the process of financialization of commodity markets which is caused by the sharp increase of money flowing into the commodity markets, the question of which factors affect commodity and commodity indices prices is discussed. In this article, the importance of chosen macroeconomic determinants to the price variability of one of the most important commodity indexes S & P GSCI by using the Boosted Trees method is quantified. The results obtained in the research show that changes in the monthly values of macroeconomic determinants reflect and can, according to the model used, explain the volatility of the monthly average index S & P GSCI Total Return to more than 75%. The most important macroeconomic determinants proved to be Nominal Effective Exchange Rate of USD or US – Short-term interest rates.

Impacts of Retailers’ Pricing Strategies for Produce Commodities on Farmer Welfare

OpenAIRE

Li, Chenguang; Sexton, Richard J.

2009-01-01

The typical model of retail pricing for produce products assumes retailers set price equal to the farm price plus a certain markup. However, observations from scanner data indicate a large degree of price dispersion in the grocery retailing market. In addition to markup pricing behavior, we document three alternative leading pricing patterns: fixed (constant) pricing, periodic sale, and high-low pricing. Retail price variations under these alternative pricing regimes in general have little co...

Trends and volatility in sub Saharan Africa’s key primary commodity exports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Ocran

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Using a GARCH model the paper sought to test the hypothesis that price volatility of key Sub Saharan Africa primary commodity exports, have not changed over the past four decades. Whilst crude oil, aluminium, cocoa and six others have not experienced significant change in price volatility over the period, nine other major commodities recorded changes. Efforts need to be made to extensively diversify the portfolio of agricultural commodity exports by including new products of which price volatilities in the past decades have been reduced. This is crucial for countries that depend on up to three primary commodities for the bulk of their foreign exchange earnings. Other measures such as value addition can also help in reducing impacts of unfavourable price movements.

Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Revoredo-Giha

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. The paper analyses the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling and the Chicago Board of Trade’s wheat contract as a comparison. Although the main purpose of the paper is to analyse whether futures markets are still useful for hedging (considering the demands from different market participants, implicitly this can be seen as testing whether the increasing presence of speculation has made futures markets divorced from physical markets. The results indicate that hedging with futures markets is still a viable alternative for dealing with price risk. This is particularly true in short period hedges (e.g. merchants and processors, where the basis seems to have been affected by the observed price instability.

Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

2016-10-01

One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boons, M.F.

2014-01-01

The dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing. Chapter I is motivated by the recent surge in institutional investment in commodity futures markets. The chapter studies how commodity risk is priced in stock and futures markets and asks whether this risk premium is time-varying with these

Analysis of the development of export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milan Palát

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is focused on the description of average level, variability and developmental trends the export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic with differentiation according to particular countries within the defined reference period 1993–2002. Thre is also presented the short-time point and interval extrapolation prediction of studied events. Methods of regression and correlation analysis and developmental trends were applied for the mathematical-statistical analysis.

International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George A. Thopila

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks in a Major Producing Economy. The Case of Copper and Chile

OpenAIRE

Michael Pedersen

2015-01-01

The present study analyzes how copper price shocks affect macroeconomic variables in Chile, which is the largest producer in the world of this commodity. It is taken into account that shocks with different sources may have different impacts and a separation is made between supply, demand, and specific copper demand shocks. The empirical analysis is based on a structural VAR model, where shocks are identified by sign restrictions, i.e. restrictions are imposed on impulse-response functions. In...

Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage Between Energy and Agricultural Markets

OpenAIRE

Thomas W. Hertel; Jayson Beckman

2011-01-01

Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low – even negative correlation. However, the recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. The amount of corn utilized for ethanol production in the US has increased from 5% in 2001 to over one-third by the end of the decade. This increase has drawn corn previously sold to other uses (exports, food, feed), as well as acreage devoted to other crops (...

Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

2008-01-01

It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

The Role of Incompleteness in Commodity Futures Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi eKanamura

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a convenience yield-based pricing for commodity futures, which embeds incompleteness of commodity futures markets in convenience yields. By using the pricing method, we conduct empirical analyses of the prices of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX in order to assess the incompleteness of energy futures markets. We show that the fluctuation from the incompleteness is partly driven by the fluctuation from convenience yields. In addition, it is shown that the incompleteness of natural gas futures market is more highlighted than the incompleteness of WTI crude oil and heating oil futures markets. We apply the implied market price of risk from the NYMEX data to pricing an Asian call option written on WTI crude oil futures. Finally, we try to apply the market incompleteness analysis to the post-crisis periods after 2009.

Demand Uncertainty and Price Stabilization

OpenAIRE

E. Kwan Choi; Stanley R. Johnson

1987-01-01

Price stabilization is an important policy goal of government intervention in competitive markets. These policies are primarily directed at raising producer income and stabilizing market prices at levels acceptable to consumers and producers (Fox 1956, Turnovsky 1978, Newbery and Stiglitz 1979). Many of the stabilization policy results have been developed from the study of agricultural commodity markets. In these markets, prices tend to be highly variable due to uncertain and inelastic supply...

The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

2014-01-01

Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an

Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

2016-11-01

A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

A strong argument for using non-commodities to generate electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santiago, Katarina Tatiana Marques; Campello de Souza, Fernando Menezes; Carvalho Bezerra, Diogo de

2014-01-01

An optimal control approach towards generating electricity is used to analyze the trade-off between using of primary sources which are regarded as commodities, such as fossil fuels, biomass and water to generate electricity, and exploiting these sources for their other economic uses (for example, in the petrochemical industry, in the production of fuels, in agriculture, in steelmaking, and so forth). In order to do so, a dynamic model is presented which establishes relationships between economic growth, the fossil fuel, water and biomass sectors, and energy policies, based on the application of the Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Among other results, the analysis establishes that, under the optimal path, the price of commodities for non-energy uses should be twice the price of the energy assets. This indicates that sources which are not commodities such as solar energy, wind energy, and geothermal energy, should be used to generate electricity. - Highlights: • We used an optimal control approach to analyze the trade-off between the multiple uses of energy resource. • We used a dynamic model which establishes relationships between economic growth, the fossil fuel, water and biomass sectors. • The analysis establishes that the price of commodities for non-energy uses should be twice the price of the energy assets

Gold prices

OpenAIRE

Joseph G. Haubrich

1998-01-01

The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.

Land use changes after the period commodities rising price in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vicente Celestino Pires Silveira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: At the end of the 20th and early 21st century, agricultural systems incorporated definitively a new mission: to generate goods for a world population that continues to grow and whose way of life demand food with low environmental impact. Soybean is the main raw material for the production of biodiesel in Brazil, accountably responsible for 82.4% of the total produced between 2006 and 2013. The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, which is formed by the Pampa and the Atlantic forest biomes, was responsible for 35.7% of the country's biodiesel production in the referred period. The aim of this paper was to verify the impact of the increased area of soybean cultivation in land use in Rio Grande do Sul State, in the period between 1990 and 2015, considering separately its two biomes (Pampa and Atlantic Forest original areas, using both census dataset and satellite images. We used the period from 1990 to 2000 as before commodity rising price (BCRP and the period from 2000 to 2013 as commodity rising price (CRP. The 505,162 ha from Atlantic Forest biome and 1,192,115ha from Pampa biome were added to soybean production in the CRP period. In the Atlantic Forest, this enlargement occurred in the border of the main production area, while in Pampa biome conversion of natural grassland to crop land was the main reason for the large increment in the cultivated area.

A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Sajipriya, N.

2012-10-01

The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

Henry Hub and national balancing point prices: what will be the international gas price reference?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazighi, A.E.H.

2005-01-01

One of the lessons in the history of international trade in commodities is the emergence - sooner or later - of an international price reference, most commonly known as an international marker price. In the area of oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plays the role of a marker for sour crudes traded in the Atlantic basin. Brent oil fulfils this function for sweet crudes traded in Europe. Another important aspect in the area of global commodities is that the emergence of a marker price is not always necessarily related to the relative share of production of exports of the commodity, but primarily to the existence of an organized market for this commodity. Today, while international gas trade is intensifying, we still lack an international price reference for this commodity. This is due to the fact that the international trade of natural gas is still highly regionalized. It is also due to the fact that most gas markets are still regulated. Nevertheless, deregulation efforts have been implemented in both developed (the United States, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, Korea) and developing countries (Brazil, Chile) and have led to new market structures based on more competition in all segments of the gas chain, except transportation. In the meantime, price structures based on supply and demand principles are supposed to have emerged in the US and UK markets in the 1990s as a result of the implementation of deregulation measures. Today, the US gas market, which represents more than 660 billion cubic metres per year of consumption and the UK gas market, which is close to 100 bcm annually, are considered mature enough to make the principles of supply and demand operate inside these markets. In fact, the Henry Hub (HH) price, which is determined at a physical location in Louisiana, US, and the national balancing point (NBP) price, which is determined somewhere inside the national transmission system (NTS), without any precise location, are considered as potential

An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble. The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885. NBER Working Paper 21213

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frankema, E.H.P.; Williamson, J.G.; Woltjer, P.J.

2015-01-01

This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net

Commodity Tracker: Mobile Application for Food Security Monitoring in Haiti

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, M. T.; Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Gourley, J. R.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Haiti Food Security Monitoring Mobile App Team

2011-12-01

Megan Chiu, Jason Baird, Xu Huang, Trishan de Lanerolle, Ralph Morelli, Jonathan Gourley Trinity College, Computer Science Department and Environmental Science Program, 300 Summit Street, Hartford, CT 06106 megan.chiu@trincoll.edu, Jason.baird@trincoll.edu, xu.huang@trincoll.edu, trishan.delanerolle@trincoll.edu, ralph.morelli@trincoll.edu, jonathan.gourley@trincoll.edu Price data for Haiti commodities such as rice and potatoes have been traditionally recorded by hand on paper forms for many years. The information is then entered onto computer manually, thus making the process a long and arduous one. With the development of the Haiti Commodity Tracker mobile app, we are able to make this commodity price data recording process more efficient. Officials may use this information for making inferences about the difference in commodity prices and for food distribution during critical time after natural disasters. This information can also be utilized by governments and aid agencies on their food assistance programs. Agronomists record the item prices from several sample sites in a marketplace and compare those results from other markets across the region. Due to limited connectivity in rural areas, data is first saved to the phone's database and then retransmitted to a central server via SMS messaging. The mobile app is currently being field tested by an international NGO providing agricultural aid and support in rural Haiti.

The changing dynamics between biofuels and commodity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bole, T.; Londo, H.M.

2008-06-01

The recent development of the biofuel industries coincides with significant increases in prices of basic commodities such as food and feed. Against popular perception, it appears that there is not a straightforward causal relationship between the two; there are a number of factors that determine the level and strength of the impact of the biofuels sector on other commodities. For the case of markets of agricultural raw material these factors include the amount of feedstock claimed by the biofuels industry, its relative purchasing power, the responsiveness of the agricultural sector to price incentives and availability of substitutes. For consumer food markets we must additionally consider the relative share of agricultural input costs in the retail food price and the demand elasticity. Based on the analysis of these factors and estimates of other studies that attempted to quantify the price impacts of biofuels on crop prices, we conclude that the impact of biofuels is relatively small, especially when compared with other causes that triggered the recent price increases. We end the paper with a recommendation for future efforts in curbing food price inflations while keeping ambitious biofuel targets and suggest a shift in focus of the debate around the social costs of biofuels

Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets

OpenAIRE

Anthony D. Hall; Paul Kofman; Steve Manaster

2001-01-01

This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options pri...

Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and Commercial ... that ensure adequate value addition and ultimate remunerative price for farmers' ... and integrating them in terms of fair price determination, information flow and ...

Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d'Artis

2011-01-01

The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)

Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kyongwook; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

2010-01-01

This study supplements previous regime-switching studies on WTI crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of Brent oil, WTI oil, copper, gold and silver, and the S and P 500 index, but with varying high-to-low volatility ratios. The dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 Iraq war but decreasing correlations with the S and P 500 index. The commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises, while the S and P 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises. Implications are discussed.

Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kannegiesser, M.; Gunther, H.O.; van Beek, P.

2009-01-01

decisions by volume and value throughout the value chain to ensure profitability. Contract and spot demand differentiation with volatile and uncertain spot prices, spot sales quantity flexibility, spot sales price-quantity functions and variable raw material consumption rates in production are problem...... quantity, price and supply decisions throughout the value chain. A two-phase optimization approach supports robust planning ensuring minimum profitability even in case of worst-case spot sales price scenarios. Model evaluations with industry case data demonstrate the impact of elasticities, variable raw......We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply...

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naveen Musunuru

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I; Chen, Chi-Chung

2010-01-01

The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)

Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniele Girardi

2012-03-01

Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors-super- †

OpenAIRE

Philip Abbott; Adeline Borot de Battisti

2011-01-01

Dramatic increases in international agricultural commodity prices began in 2006 and peaked in July 2008. An equally remarkable and rapid decline of those prices then ensued, accompanied by extreme volatility in those prices. The trend in food prices lagged the rapid increases in other commodity prices, including oil and metals, but accompanied those other prices in the downward part of the cycle. Not all agricultural commodities increased to the same extent—grains and oilseed prices increased...

A sensitivity analysis of process design parameters, commodity prices and robustness on the economics of odour abatement technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, José M; Kraakman, N J R Bart; Lebrero, Raquel; Muñoz, Raúl

2012-01-01

The sensitivity of the economics of the five most commonly applied odour abatement technologies (biofiltration, biotrickling filtration, activated carbon adsorption, chemical scrubbing and a hybrid technology consisting of a biotrickling filter coupled with carbon adsorption) towards design parameters and commodity prices was evaluated. Besides, the influence of the geographical location on the Net Present Value calculated for a 20 years lifespan (NPV20) of each technology and its robustness towards typical process fluctuations and operational upsets were also assessed. This comparative analysis showed that biological techniques present lower operating costs (up to 6 times) and lower sensitivity than their physical/chemical counterparts, with the packing material being the key parameter affecting their operating costs (40-50% of the total operating costs). The use of recycled or partially treated water (e.g. secondary effluent in wastewater treatment plants) offers an opportunity to significantly reduce costs in biological techniques. Physical/chemical technologies present a high sensitivity towards H2S concentration, which is an important drawback due to the fluctuating nature of malodorous emissions. The geographical analysis evidenced high NPV20 variations around the world for all the technologies evaluated, but despite the differences in wage and price levels, biofiltration and biotrickling filtration are always the most cost-efficient alternatives (NPV20). When, in an economical evaluation, the robustness is as relevant as the overall costs (NPV20), the hybrid technology would move up next to BTF as the most preferred technologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kannegiesser, M.; Günther, H.O.; Beek, van P.; Grunow, M.; Habla, C.

2009-01-01

We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply

Improving agricultural commodity supply-chain to promote economic activities in rural area

Science.gov (United States)

Padjung, R.

2018-05-01

Long supply chain of agricultural commodities has become concern to governments particularly in large countries such as Indonesia as it causes high price disparity between farm-gate and retailer. Policies to overcome such problem are usually by shortening the chain, by which farmers sell the products directly to retailers. Using an action research in AEDEF (Aceh Economic Development Financing Facilities) Program, conducted in the province of Nangro Aceh Darussalam (NAD) Indonesia, the paper shows that shortening the commodity supply chain is not the best solution to such problem, as it causes loss of jobs in the villages. High price disparity between farm-gate and retailer is not necessary brought about by long supply-chain but by the efficiency of the chain instead. Efficiency of the chain can be improved by creating enabling business environment such that every actors and players work in a fair manner. This can be achieved by transparency in price and quality grade. With development achieved in Information and Communication Technology (ICT), having a good and reliable flow of such information is not difficult. In addition to information flow, the availability and quality of infrastructure to support flow of goods from farm-gate to end-user is of reasonably important.

Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

OpenAIRE

Lya Aklimawati; Teguh Wahyudi

2013-01-01

High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1)  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2) ...

Metal prices in the United States through 2010

Science.gov (United States)

,

2013-01-01

This report, which updates and revises the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (1999) publication, “Metal Prices in the United States Through 1998,” presents an extended price history for a wide range of metals available in a single document. Such information can be useful for the analysis of mineral commodity issues, as well as for other purposes. The chapter for each mineral commodity includes a graph of annual current and constant dollar prices for 1970 through 2010, where available; a list of significant events that affected prices; a brief discussion of the metal and its history; and one or more tables that list current dollar prices. In some cases, the metal prices presented herein are for some alternative form of an element or, instead of a price, a value, such as the value for an import as appraised by the U.S. Customs Service. Also included are the prices for steel, steel scrap, and iron ore—steel because of its importance to the elements used to alloy with it, and steel scrap and iron ore because of their use in steelmaking. A few minor metals, such as calcium, potassium, sodium, strontium, and thorium, for which price histories were insufficient, were excluded. The annual prices given may be averages for the year, yearend prices, or some other price as appropriate for a particular commodity. Certain trade journals have been the source of much of this price information—American Metal Market, ICIS Chemical Business, Engineering and Mining Journal, Industrial Minerals, Metal Bulletin, Mining Journal, Platts Metals Week, Roskill Information Services Ltd. commodity reports, and Ryan’s Notes. Price information also is available in minerals information publications of the USGS (1880–1925, 1996–present) and the U.S. Bureau of Mines (1926–95), such as Mineral Commodity Summaries, Mineral Facts and Problems, Mineral Industry Surveys, and Minerals Yearbook. In addition to prices themselves, these journals and publications contain information relevant to

Poverty, Policy and Price Transmission

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elleby, Christian

This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters in which different aspects of the relationship between international commodity markets and domestic food markets are explored. What motivates the analysis is the recent surge in international commodity prices and the controversy over the poverty...

Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Udo Broll

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irz, Xavier; Niemi, Jyrki; Liu, Xing

2013-01-01

The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006–2008 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets, such as the energy market. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a cointegration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation are dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock. - Highlights: • We investigate the dynamics of food price formation in Finland. • We establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices of food, energy, agricultural commodities, and wages. • Energy price plays a significant but limited role in determining the equilibrium level of food prices

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

17 CFR 242.201 - Price test.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Price test. 242.201 Section...-Regulation of Short Sales § 242.201 Price test. Link to an amendment published at 75 FR 11323, Mar. 10, 2010. (a) No short sale price test, including any short sale price test of any self-regulatory organization...

Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2001-01-01

Pricing policies for gasoline by Canadian oil companies are discussed. An attempt is made to demonstrate that competition between oil companies is extremely keen, and markups are so small that to stay in business, retail outlets have to sell huge volumes and sell non-fuel products, as a means to increase revenues and margins. An explanation is provided for why gasoline prices move in unison, and why what appears to the public as collusion and gouging is, in fact, the result of retail dealers attempting to stay in business. The high prices are attributed mainly to taxes by municipalities, the provinces and the federal government; taxes are said to account for 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude makes up another 35 to 45 per cent, refining adds 10 to 15 per cent, with the remaining 5 to 10 per cent representing retail costs. (Taxes in the United States average 20 to 30 per cent). Over the longer term, gasoline prices consistently reflect the cost of crude oil, dominated by the OPEC countries which supply about 41 per cent of daily world production. Another factor is the rise of global and regional commodity markets for refined products such as gasoline. Commodity traders buy wholesale gasoline cheaply whenever it is in oversupply, and sell it for a profit into markets where the demand is greater. While this is claimed to ensure competitive prices in all markets, the practice can also trigger abrupt changes in regional markets

Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuper, Gerard H.

This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of marketing

Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

2005-01-01

This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what extent...... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...

Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gao Lu Zou

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Recent housing policies include measures for home purchase control and shanty town redevelopment. This study proposes sustainable pricing, in that the long-run equilibrium price is determined by the fundamentals of house prices. We argue that changes in CPI might have led to rapidly growing house prices and rather high price levels. We investigate the long-run or short-run impacts of new commodity housing completions, transacted square meters of commodity housing, and CPI for house prices in Shanghai. We adopt monthly data for the period of 2005–2010. We test for unit roots using both the ADF and PP techniques and structural breaks using both the Zivot-Andrews (Model B and Perron (Model C methods. Considering Cheung-Lai and Reinsel–Ahn finite-sample corrections, the results suggest a long-run equilibrium. Housing completions negatively impact house prices in the short run. A positive volume-price relationship is suggested. Housing sales affect house prices in the short run but not vice versa. Hence, the empirical evidence supports the search model. In addition, CPI is strongly exogenous with respect to the long-run relationship and thus is a long-term determinant of house prices. CPI also positively and drastically influences house prices in the short run. Therefore, a reduction in inflation rate could stabilize house prices, increasing the chances of sustainable prices in the future.

Survey of Alternative Feedstocks for Commodity Chemical Manufacturing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McFarlane, Joanna [ORNL; Robinson, Sharon M [ORNL

2008-02-01

The current high prices for petroleum and natural gas have spurred the chemical industry to examine alternative feedstocks for the production of commodity chemicals. High feedstock prices have driven methanol and ammonia production offshore. The U.S. Chemical Industry is the largest user of natural gas in the country. Over the last 30 years, alternatives to conventional petroleum and natural gas feedstocks have been developed, but have limited, if any, commercial implementation in the United States. Alternative feedstocks under consideration include coal from unconventional processing technologies, such as gasification and liquefaction, novel resources such as biomass, stranded natural gas from unconventional reserves, and heavy oil from tar sands or oil shale. These feedstock sources have been evaluated with respect to the feasibility and readiness for production of the highest volume commodity chemicals in the United States. Sources of organic compounds, such as ethanol from sugar fermentation and bitumen-derived heavy crude are now being primarily exploited for fuels, rather than for chemical feedstocks. Overall, government-sponsored research into the use of alternatives to petroleum feedstocks focuses on use for power and transportation fuels rather than for chemical feedstocks. Research is needed to reduce cost and technical risk. Use of alternative feedstocks is more common outside the United States R&D efforts are needed to make these processes more efficient and less risky before becoming more common domestically. The status of alternative feedstock technology is summarized.

Developments in Global Food Prices

OpenAIRE

Vanessa Rayner; Emily Laing; Jamie Hall

2011-01-01

Global food prices have increased significantly since the early 2000s, reversing the long-run trend decline in relative food prices over previous decades. A range of supply disruptions in key food-producing countries have contributed to higher food prices, along with strong demand from developing countries as per capita incomes rise and consumption patterns change. Rising commodity prices are leading to higher headline consumer price inflation in many countries though, at this stage, core mea...

7 CFR Exhibit B to Subpart A of... - Memorandum of Understanding and Blanket Commodity Lien Waiver

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... commodity with respect to which the loan or purchase is made. The word “subordinated” means that, in the... makes loans to farmers on the security of agricultural commodities that are eligible for price support under loan and purchase programs conducted by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). FmHA or its...

7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a producer...

The Financial Industry's Challenge of Developing Commodity Derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

1999-01-01

With a constant new stream of financial services coming to the market, each often more exotic and complicated than the last, the financial services industry, which includes commodity derivatives exchanges, brokerage houses and banks providing price risk reduction services (the so-called hedging

LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): the natural gas becoming a world commodity and creating international price references; GNL (Gas Natural Liquefeito): o gas natural se tornando uma commodity mundial e criando referencias de preco internacionais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Demori, Marcio Bastos [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Comercializacao de Gas e GNL; Santos, Edmilson Moutinho dos [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia. Programa Interunidades de Pos-Graduacao em Energia (PIPGE)

2004-07-01

The transportation of large quantities of natural gas through long distances has been done more frequently by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The increase of natural gas demand and the distance of major reserves, allied to technological improvements and cost reduction through LNG supply chain, have triggered the expressive increase of LNG world market This paper tries to evaluate the influence that LNG should cause on natural gas world market dynamic, analyzing the tendency of gas to become a world commodity, creating international price references, like oil and its derivates. For this, are shown data as natural gas world reserves, the participation of LNG in natural gas world market and their increase. Furthermore, will be analyzed the interaction between major natural gas reserves and their access to major markets, still considering scheduled LNG projects, the following impacts from their implementation and price arbitrage that should be provoked on natural gas markets. (author)

Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Buerhan Saiti

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

Petroleum price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maurice, J.

2001-01-01

The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

7 CFR 1599.11 - Use of commodities and sale proceeds.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE McGOVERN-DOLE INTERNATIONAL FOOD FOR EDUCATION AND CHILD NUTRITION... sell the donated commodities at a reasonable market price in the economy where the sale occurs. The...

DESIGNING GREEN SUPPORT: INCENTIVE COMPATIBILITY AND THE COMMODITY PROGRAMS

OpenAIRE

Runge, C. Ford

1994-01-01

The purpose of this brief analysis is to consider the potential points of contact between a program of "green support" and the existing commodity programs in U.S. agriculture. These points of contact may take the form of conflict, complementarity, or neutrality. We shall assume initially that green support is "added" to the programs as they exist in 1994. Five main commodity program areas are considered: A. Deficiency payments resulting from the loan rate/target price structure B. Acreage red...

Food Prices Transmission In Rwanda: Econometric Analysis

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ahavugimana

(2010) found that if markets are efficient and policies are not an obstacle to their operation, changes in the world price of any given commodity should be similarly reflected in changes in domestic prices – phenomenon known as 'price transmission'. In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods have ...

The impacts of global oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Chuanguo

2014-01-01

This paper investigated the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. In order to analyze the reactions of different industries to oil price shocks, we focused on four fundamental industries: grains, metals, petrochemicals and oil fats. We separated the oil price shocks into two parts, positive and negative parts, to investigate how commodity markets react when oil prices go up and down. We further studied the extreme price movements, called jumps, existing in the oil markets and how jump behavior has affected China's commodity markets. Our results suggest that asymmetric effects of oil price shocks did exist in the four markets and the negative oil price shocks had stronger influences on the four markets in China. The petrochemicals market suffered most from the oil price shocks, and the grains market was least sensitive to the shocks. When jumps occurred in the crude oil market, the four commodity markets would be affected differently. The oil fats market and petrochemicals market tended to “overreact” to jumps. - Highlights: • We investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. • Jump behavior does exist in the crude oil market. • The impacts of oil price shocks are asymmetric. • China's four commodity markets are affected by the jump behavior

7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term net market price means— (a) except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the sales price, or...

Will Commodity Properties Affect Seller's Creditworthy: Evidence in C2C E-commerce Market in China

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Hui; Ling, Min

This paper finds out that the credit rating level shows significant difference among different sub-commodity markets in E-commerce, which provides room for sellers to get higher credit rating by entering businesses with higher average credit level before fraud. In order to study the influence of commodity properties on credit rating, this paper analyzes how commodity properties affect average crediting rating through the degree of information asymmetry, returns and costs of fraud, credibility perception and fraud tolerance. Empirical study shows that Delivery, average trading volume, average price and complaint possibility have decisive impacts on credit performance; brand market share, the degree of standardization and the degree of imitation also have a relatively less significant effect on credit rating. Finally, this paper suggests that important commodity properties should be introduced to modify reputation system, for preventing credit rating arbitrage behavior where sellers move into low-rating commodity after being assigned high credit rating.

Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF VARIETY PRICE PREMIUM ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Location price difference was inversely related to distance from the central commodity market, and the seasonal price difference was attributed to storage technique. These show imperfect competitive market behaviour. Peu/drum with characteristics of brown colour, rough skin and large grain size had a price premium than ...

Unit of Account, Medium of Exchange, and Prices

OpenAIRE

Young Sik Kim; Manjong Lee

2011-01-01

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity-money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller¡¯s choice with regard to posting price in terms of either an MoE or a UoA. If the likelihood of debasement of MoE or its rate is high enough and agents are sufficiently risk averse, there exists a monetary equilibrium in which price is quoted in terms of a UoA. Further, a UoA-posting equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas ...

Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

Science.gov (United States)

Bilgin, Ferhat I.

My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

Product price control using game theory: A case study of a fish price in the state of Terengganu

Science.gov (United States)

Safiih, L. Muhamad; Afiq, R. Mohd Noor

2014-07-01

The increase in the price of goods is often a concern among the community. This is caused by factors that beyond of controlled such as a natural disaster, and others that cause the demand exceed the current supply. However, what is more concerning is the increase in price of goods due to the individual who raises the price in order to earn higher profits. Therefore, to overcome this problem, a method of price controls using Game Theory is considered. The Game Theory realizing a form of observational on the action and effects that occur by an individual or group to maximize the utilization under certain circumstances. The study was conducted on prices of 14 fish commodities in the state of Terengganu and also to see the cooperation effect between players of commodity prices. Data were analysed by using the software Gambit. The result shows that there is significant increase due to the influence of middlemen. The findings also shows that the price controls are applied at a set time, then it was applied to other times, prices are more stable and profitable returns to all parties can be maximized.

Natural gas pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freedenthal, C.

1993-01-01

Natural gas pricing is the heart and soul of the gas business. Price specifically affects every phase of the industry. Too low a price will result in short supplies as seen in the mid-1970s when natural gas was scarce and in tight supply. To fully understand the pricing of this energy commodity, it is important to understand the total energy picture. In addition, the effect and impact of world and US economies, and economics in general are crucial to understanding natural gas pricing. The purpose of this presentation will be to show the parameters going into US natural gas pricing including the influence of the many outside industry factors like crude oil and coal pricing, market drivers pushing the gas industry, supply/demand parameters, risk management for buyers and sellers, and other elements involved in pricing analysis

[Research progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica and discussion on several key problems].

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Guang; Zeng, Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping; Huang, Lu-Qi; Jin, Yan; Zheng, Yu-Guang; Wang, Yong-Yan

2014-05-01

Standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica is an important way to solve the "Lemons Problem" of traditional Chinese medicine market. Standards of commodity classes are also helpful to rebuild market mechanisms for "high price for good quality". The previous edition of commodity classes standards of Chinese materia medica was made 30 years ago. It is no longer adapted to the market demand. This article researched progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It considered that biological activity is a better choice than chemical constituents for standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It is also considered that the key point to set standards of commodity classes is finding the influencing factors between "good quality" and "bad quality". The article also discussed the range of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, and how to coordinate standards of pharmacopoeia and commodity classes. According to different demands, diversiform standards can be used in commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, but efficacy is considered the most important index of commodity standard. Decoction pieces can be included in standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. The authors also formulated the standards of commodity classes of Notoginseng Radix as an example, and hope this study can make a positive and promotion effect on traditional Chinese medicine market related research.

DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARIA CARTAS

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Bergmann

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

Price, technology, and ore reserves, ch. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McAllister, A.L.

1976-01-01

Factors determining ore reserves in view of future uses are investigated: existing mining technologies, new techniques, price-technology relationship, effects of the use of different energy sources, exploration techniques, and price change are discussed. The effect of price and technology on reserves of specific commodities is dealth with. A section is also devoted to uranium

Factors that Influence the Price of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Rare Earth Elements, and Zn

Science.gov (United States)

Papp, John F.; Bray, E. Lee; Edelstein, Daniel L.; Fenton, Michael D.; Guberman, David E.; Hedrick, James B.; Jorgenson, John D.; Kuck, Peter H.; Shedd, Kim B.; Tolcin, Amy C.

2008-01-01

This report is based on a presentation delivered at The 12th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar, March 17-20, 2008, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., about the factors that influence prices for aluminum, cadmium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, nickel, rare earth elements, and zinc. These are a diverse group of metals that are of interest to the battery recycling industry. Because the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) closely monitors, yet neither buys nor sells, metal commodities, it is an unbiased source of metal price information and analysis. The authors used information about these and other metals collected and published by the USGS (U.S. production, trade, stocks, and prices and world production) and internationally (consumption and stocks by country) from industry organizations, because metal markets are influenced by activities and events over the entire globe. Long-term prices in this report, represented by unit values, were adjusted to 1998 constant dollars to remove the effects of inflation. A previous USGS study in this subject area was 'Economic Drivers of Mineral Supply' by Lorie A. Wagner, Daniel E. Sullivan, and John L. Sznopek (USGS Open File Report 02-335). By seeking a common cause for common behavior of prices among the various metal commodities, the authors found that major factors that influence prices of metal commodities were international events such as wars and recessions, and national events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and economic growth in China, which started its open door policy in the 1970s but did not have significant market impact until the 1990s. Metal commodity prices also responded to commodity-specific events such as tariff or usage changes or mine strikes. It is shown that the prices of aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc are at historic highs, that world stocks are at (or near) historic lows, and that China's consumption of these metals had increased substantially, making it the world

Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novak, E.D.

1984-01-01

Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

This publication by the National Energy Board is part of a continuing program of assessing applications for long-term natural gas export licences. The market-based procedure used by the Board is based on the premise that the marketplace will generally operate in a way that will ensure that Canadian requirements for natural gas will be met at fair market prices. The market--based procedure consists of a public hearing and a monitoring component. The monitoring component involves the on-going assessment of Canadian energy markets to provide analyses of major energy commodities on either an individual or integrated commodity basis. This report is the result of the most recent assessment . It identifies factors that affect natural gas prices and describes the functioning of regional markets in Canada. It provides an overview of the energy demand, including recent trends, reviews the North American gas supply and markets, the natural gas pricing dynamics in Canada, and a regional analysis of markets, prices and dynamics in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In general, demand growth outstripped growth in supply, but natural gas producers throughout North America have been responding to the current high price environment with aggressive drilling programs. The Board anticipates that in time, there will be a supply and demand response and accompanying relief in natural gas prices. A review of the annual weighted average border price paid for Alberta gas indicates that domestic gas users paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices converged, suggesting that Canadians have had access to natural gas at prices no less favourable than export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems such as NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had significant impact on the pricing of natural gas. These systems, by providing timely information to market participants. enables them to manage price

Dynamics of a durable commodity market involving trade at disequilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Panchuk, A.; Puu, T.

2018-05-01

The present work considers a simple model of a durable commodity market involving two agents who trade stocks of two different types. Stock commodities, in contrast to flow commodities, remain on the market from period to period and, consequently, there is neither unique demand function nor unique supply function exists. We also set up exact conditions for trade at disequilibrium, the issue being usually neglected, though a fact of reality. The induced iterative system has infinite number of fixed points and path dependent dynamics. We show that a typical orbit is either attracted to one of the fixed points or eventually sticks at a no-trade point. For the latter the stock distribution always remains the same while the price displays periodic or chaotic oscillations.

Price expectations and petroleum development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

1991-01-01

In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

Supply Chain Shipment Pricing Data

Data.gov (United States)

US Agency for International Development — This data set provides supply chain health commodity shipment and pricing data. Specifically, the data set identifies Antiretroviral (ARV) and HIV lab shipments to...

41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List. The...

Role of governance in creating a commodity hub: A comparative analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.P. Haris

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The body of work on natural gas hubs has been expanding rapidly in recent years, with most of the current work examining the creation of gas hubs focusing on either the European experience or the North American experience. In this paper, we adopt a different perspective and place the focus on experience of hub building from other international commodities. We analyse three commodities - crude oil, iron ore and coal, and draw experience on the role of governance in development of hub based prices. In particular, we propose that the role of governance is different at different stages of the pricing transition to market based pricing. Governance could play an important role at the initial stage, building the relevant soft and physical infrastructure which facilitates the reaping of first mover advantage. As the market develops, private sector players may prefer less involvement of governance, which may distort markets. With market stabilization, governance should be focused on maintaining stable rules and regulation for private sector development, as well as monitoring for further changes in global trends. To facilitate the building of a benchmark price, the public sector should adopt a long-term and overarching view on industry growth.

Commodities and Stock Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

High prices on electric power now again?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doorman, Gerard

2003-01-01

Deregulation of the electric power market has yielded low prices for the consumers throughout the 1990s. Consumption has now increased considerably, but little new production has been added. This results in high prices in dry years, but to understand this one must understand price formation in the Nordic spot market. The high prices are a powerful signal to the consumers to reduce consumption, but they are also a signal to the producers to seize any opportunity to increase production. However, the construction of new dams etc. stirs up the environmentalists. Ordinary consumers may protect themselves against high prices by signing fixed-price contracts. For those who can tolerate price fluctuations, spot prices are a better alternative than the standard contract with variable price

Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Xinsheng; Li, Jianfeng; Zhou, Ying; Qian, Yubo

2017-11-01

This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China's RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index.

Optimal Commodity Taxation and Income Distribution

OpenAIRE

Benassi, Corrado; Randon, Emanuela

2015-01-01

We consider the interplay between income distribution and optimal commodity taxation, linking equity issues to optimal taxes through the effect of income distribution on market demand and its price elasticity. We find conditions to conciliate the equity and efficiency tradeoff and to assess the impact of inequality changes on the optimal taxation of necessity and luxury goods. We show that the regressivity or progressivity of the tax system is determined by the distribution of luxuries and ne...

Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mircea Gabriela

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjoerndal, Mette; Joernsten, Kurt

2004-06-01

The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price-functions that are the basis for integer programming duality. (Author)

17 CFR 270.22c-1 - Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase. 270.22c-1 Section 270.22c-1 Commodity and Securities... 1940 § 270.22c-1 Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase. (a) No...

Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

Science.gov (United States)

Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

AN OVERVIEW OF MAJOR SOURCES OF DATA AND ANALYSES RELATING TO PHYSICAL FUNDAMENTALS IN INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS

OpenAIRE

Pilar Fajarnes

2011-01-01

The debate on whether price movements in commodity markets are determined by changes in physical supply and demand fundamentals or by the speculative effects of financial investors seems to find some element of agreement on one particular point: the need for increased transparency and improved information on futures markets and physical commodity markets. This discussion paper provides an assessment of the current situation with regard to availability of information on physical commodity mark...

A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minsuk Kwak

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

A game theory model for stabilizing price of chili: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Wardayanti, Ari; Aviv, Afgan Suffan; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

2017-11-01

Chili is one of the important agricultural commodity in Indonesia because of its widely consumption by the Indonesian. Chili becomes one of the commodities that experience price fluctuations and important cause of yearly inflation in Indonesia. The unstable price of chili is affected by the scarcity of the commodity in some months and the difference of the harvest season. This study proposes a model to solve the problem by considering the substitution of fresh chilies with dried chili. We propose the cooperative of chili's farmer as entities that process fresh chili into dry ones. The existence of substitution products is expected to maintain the price stability chili. This research was conducted by taking a case study on chili commodity markets in Surakarta which consists of 19 traditional markets. This study aims to create a price stabilization scheme with product substitution using a game theory model. There are 4 strategies proposed in game theory model to describe the relationship between producers and consumers. In this case, the producers are the farmers and the consumers are the trade market. A mixed strategy of was chosen to determine the optimal value among 4 strategies. From the calculation results obtained optimal value when doing a mixed strategy of IDR 201,188,829,000.

A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

Science.gov (United States)

Greenblatt, R. E.

2014-12-01

The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

Manufacturing process design for multi commodities in agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Prasetyawan, Yudha; Santosa, Andrian Henry

2017-06-01

High-potential commodities within particular agricultural sectors should be accompanied by maximum benefit value that can be attained by both local farmers and business players. In several cases, the business players are small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which have limited resources to perform added value process of the local commodities into the potential products. The weaknesses of SMEs such as the manual production process with low productivity, limited capacity to maintain prices, and unattractive packaging due to conventional production. Agricultural commodity is commonly created into several products such as flour, chips, crackers, oil, juice, and other products. This research was initiated by collecting data by interview method particularly to obtain the perspectives of SMEs as the business players. Subsequently, the information was processed based on the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to determine House of Quality from the first to fourth level. A proposed design as the result of QFD was produced and evaluated with Technology Assessment Model (TAM) and continued with a revised design. Finally, the revised design was analyzed with financial perspective to obtain the cost structure of investment, operational, maintenance, and workers. The machine that performs manufacturing process, as the result of revised design, was prototyped and tested to determined initial production process. The designed manufacturing process offers IDR 337,897, 651 of Net Present Value (NPV) in comparison with the existing process value of IDR 9,491,522 based on similar production input.

Research on the Risk Measurement for the Futures Market of Bulk Commodity – Taking the silver futures as the example

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Du Yating

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The futures transaction of bulk commodity has played an important role since China became the global manufacturing center. Taking the commodity futures market in Shanghai as the research objective, this article selects the price of silver futures, uses GARCH-VaR and Stress Testing to measure the risk tolerance of the market. The research result shows the silver price is fluctuated within the scope specified by the market and won't influence the stable operation of futures market.

What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Földvári, P.; van Leeuwen, B.

2011-01-01

The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price

Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giot, P.

2003-01-01

We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners. (author)

Market risk in commodity markets. A VaR approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giot, Pierre [Department of Business Administration and CEREFIM at University of Namur, Rempart de la Vierge, 8, 5000 Namur (Belgium); Laurent, Sebastien [Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) at Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain (Belgium)

2003-09-01

We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners.

Market risk in commodity markets. A VaR approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giot, Pierre; Laurent, Sebastien

2003-01-01

We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners

Petroleum price; Prix du petrole

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maurice, J

2001-07-01

The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

Price transmission between biofuels, fuels and food commodities

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krištoufek, Ladislav; Janda, K.; Zilberman, D.

2014-01-01

Roč. 8, č. 3 (2014), s. 362-373 ISSN 1932-104X Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : biofuels * price transmission * non-linearity * elasticity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.214, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433525.pdf

7 CFR 1962.19 - Claims against Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... sell or pledge to CCC as loan collateral under the Price Support Program, commodities on which FmHA or... County Supervisor will make immediate demand on the borrower for the amount of the CCC loan or the... CCC. (2) On receiving information from the State Director that CCC has called the borrower's loan, the...

Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voituriez, T.

2009-01-01

We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

Application of Derivatives Market for Controlling Risks of Commodity Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rasuolė Drazdauskienė

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The issue of raw milk procurement cost level and fluctuation which inhibits strengthening negotiating positions of dairy product fabricants and probability of them staying competitive in the European Union, is examined. Scientific literature that analyzes risks of staple prices is overviewed in the article. The paper provides statistical data representing the situation of Lithuania in contrast with European Union rates. Global usage of prospective transactions and their possible influence on price regulation are analyzed. After examining statistical data and academic literature, conclusions are provided.

Relationship of mother and child food purchases as a function of price: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Handley, Elizabeth A; Roemmich, James N; Paluch, Rocco A

2006-07-01

To our knowledge, there are no data on parental influences on child purchasing behavior of healthy or unhealthy foods. Mothers and children in ten families were given 5.00 US dollars to purchase portions of preferred fruits/vegetables and high energy-dense snack foods for each of ten trials of price manipulations. For five of the trials the price of the fruit/vegetable increased in price from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars (in 0.50 US dollar increments), while the price of the energy-dense snack food remained constant at 1.00 US dollar. For the remaining five trials, the commodity that previously rose in price remained constant at 1.00 US dollars and the other commodity varied from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars. Same-price elasticity was shown for both the child and parent purchases, and parent purchases were significantly related to child purchases of both healthy (regression estimate = 0.46, p snack food items were positively related to family socioeconomic status, and negatively related to child age. These results indicate that parental food choice and purchasing behaviors may play a role in the development of children's purchasing of both healthy and unhealthy foods.

Price and inventory dynamics in petroleum product markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Considine, T.J.; Heo, Eunnyeong

2000-01-01

Unlike many studies of commodity inventory behavior, this paper estimates a model with endogenous spot and forward prices, inventories, production, and net imports. Our application involves markets for refined petroleum products in the United States. Our model is built around the supply and demand for storage. We estimate the model using Generalized Method of Moments and perform dynamic, simultaneous simulations to estimate the impacts of supply and demand shocks. Supply curves for the industry are inelastic and upward sloping. High inventory levels depress prices. Inventories fall in response to higher sales, consistent with production smoothing. Under higher input prices, refiners reduce their stocks of crude oil but increase their product inventories, consistent with cost smoothing. In some cases, imports of products are more variable than production or inventories. 25 refs

Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathew, Paul E-mail: pamathew@lbl.gov; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

2005-07-01

Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron.

Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathew, Paul; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

2005-01-01

Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron

MICROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF WATER PRICES

OpenAIRE

Goić, Srećko

2004-01-01

Water as a specific commodity, and water supply as a specific industry, represent a very interesting field for microeconomic analysis. Starting from the fact that in the market economy most of microeconomic categories and relations are turning around the price, this paper is attempting to give a comprehensive analysis of key microeconomic determinants of water prices. Establishing that the water market is a monopolistic one, relations between supply and demand have been analyzed, as well a...

Price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study examined the price generating process and volatility of Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive ...

Stochastic processes in the social sciences: Markets, prices and wealth distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Romero, Natalia E.

The present work uses statistical mechanics tools to investigate the dynamics of markets, prices, trades and wealth distribution. We studied the evolution of market dynamics in different stages of historical development by analyzing commodity prices from two distinct periods ancient Babylon, and medieval and early modern England. We find that the first-digit distributions of both Babylon and England commodity prices follow Benfords law, indicating that the data represent empirical observations typically arising from a free market. Further, we find that the normalized prices of both Babylon and England agricultural commodities are characterized by stretched exponential distributions, and exhibit persistent correlations of a power law type over long periods of up to several centuries, in contrast to contemporary markets. Our findings suggest that similar market interactions may underlie the dynamics of ancient agricultural commodity prices, and that these interactions may remain stable across centuries. To further investigate the dynamics of markets we present the analogy between transfers of money between individuals and the transfer of energy through particle collisions by means of the kinetic theory of gases. We introduce a theoretical framework of how the micro rules of trading lead to the emergence of income and wealth distribution. Particularly, we study the effects of different types of distribution of savings/investments among individuals in a society and different welfare/subsidies redistribution policies. Results show that while considering savings propensities the models approach empirical distributions of wealth quite well the effect of redistribution better captures specific features of the distributions which earlier models failed to do; moreover the models still preserve the exponential decay observed in empirical income distributions reported by tax data and surveys.

New Commodity Services System increases gas bill for clients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koevoet, H.

2003-01-01

The Dutch company Gasunie Trade and Supply will replace the Commodity Services System (CDS, abbreviated in Dutch) January 1, 2004. This will result in a higher gas bill for almost all their clients that are expected to use more than 1 million m 3 natural gas per year. An overview is given of the principles of the old and the new pricing system [nl

Electricity: French industrialists tied up by prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jemain, A.

2004-01-01

With more than 50% of increase in 3 years, the electricity prices reach summits in France. The industrialists, initially enthusiastic over the promises of the liberalization of European energy markets, are today particularly disappointed and denounce an irrational logic. The reasons of these inflationary prices are explained in this article: alignment of electricity prices with respect to the prices of the less efficient producers (oil and gas power plants), lack of peak production means which induces prices volatility, a commodity market model unsuitable to electricity specificities, lack of transparency in the establishment of reference prices, no margins for negotiation, and will of Electricite de France (EdF) to restore its financial status. (J.S.)

Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabre, S.

1991-01-01

Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

17 CFR 270.22e-2 - Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1. 270.22e-2 Section 270.22e-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges....22e-2 Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1. An investment company shall not be...

Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-04-01

Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

The price level and monetary policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles P. Kindleberger

2002-03-01

Full Text Available Most central banks are required to or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is which index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action in order to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, for overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

Domestic policy responses to the food price crisis: The case of Bolivia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harald Grethe

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In face of the global food crisis of 2007–2008, severe concerns arose about how developing countries would be affected by the extreme short-term fluctuations in international commodity prices. We examine the effects of the crisis on Bolivia, one of the poorest countries of the Americas. We focus on the effectiveness of the domestic policy interventions in preventing spillovers of the development of international food prices to domestic markets. Using a cointegration model, we study price interdependencies of wheat flour, sunflower oil and poultry. The analysis suggests that the policy measures taken had little effect on food security during the food crisis. Throughout the entire period, perfect price transmission between the Bolivian poultry and sunflower oil markets and the respective international reference markets existed. Bolivian prices were determined by international prices and the policy interventions in the markets of these two commodities were not found to have had an effect. The government’s large-scale wheat flour imports did not shield Bolivian consumers from the shocks of international prices.

Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Nielsen, Max; Nielsen, Rasmus

2017-01-01

This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity....... Analysis of the term structure of futures volatilities reveal that the shorter the length of the futures contract, the more volatility there is. This is because salmon prices exhibit short-term cyclical and seasonal patterns like other agricultural commodities. As such, salmon producers will be better off...

Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

2005-01-01

Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... Commission or its designee. (Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under control number 3038-0009... composition of the fixed price cash position of each commodity hedged including: (1) The quantity of stocks... commitments open in such cash commodities and their products and byproducts. (3) The quantity of fixed price...

Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulia Listorti

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Following the dramatic changes experienced by the prices of agricultural commodities in 2007-2008, the analysis of horizontal price transmission mechanisms in agricultural markets has attracted renewed interest. In particular, this has led to the emergence of new challenges for the empirical analysis. How to model the increasing volatility and non linear behaviour of prices, to assess the impact of the policy responses to market turbulence, and how to account for the increasing interconnections between agricultural and non-agricultural commodity markets are amongst the most investigated issues. Building on a common analytical framework, this paper discusses and reviews the most recent methodological developments and empirical contributions in the field.

POWERS. Simulation of pricing and investment decisions in a liberalized Dutch electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rijkers, F.A.M.; Battjes, J.J.; Janszen, F.H.A.; Kaag, M.

2001-02-01

With the liberalisation of the Dutch electricity market the electricity price will be divided into a network component and a commodity component. Further, liberalisation will change the determination of the commodity price. Before liberalisation the commodity price was centrally determined by the Sep (Samenwerkende Electriciteitsproductiebedrijven or Dutch Electricity Generating Board), but with the introduction of liberalisation prices will be determined by the market itself. To analyse the liberalised market a new model (POWERS) has been developed in which the new structure of the electricity market is incorporated and the increasing competition between energy companies is taken into account. An overview of the POWERS-model is presented in this report. The model is based on the system dynamics. This means that the decisions (regarding production volume, allocation of the plants, price setting) made by each market player is based on information from the previous period. Optimisation models that are based on the assumption of 'perfect foresight' do not apply to the electricity market. Currently, the model contains a detailed description of the production capacity of the current market players in the Netherlands. Among other purposes the model is suitable for determining an outlook of forward prices on the Dutch electricity market and for analysing the impacts of alternative strategies of the different market players on their profits. 4 refs

Price and Product Pooling: Impact on Development and Operation of Differentiated Value Chains

OpenAIRE

Hobbs, Jill E.; Kerr, William A.

2006-01-01

Price pooling has long been used as a means to deal with risk in the marketing of agricultural commodities. For commodities, product pooling may also generate potential benefits through economies of scale or the provision of market power. Yet there has also been a growing interest in product differentiation and the development of value chains as a means to increase returns to farmers. This article explores the question of whether price or product pooling is compatible with a strategy of pro-a...

Cointegration and error correction modelling of agricultural commodity trade: The case of ASEAN agricultural exports to the EU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. NIEMI

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The objecti e of this study is to increase our understanding of the specification and estimation of agricultural commodity trade models as well as to provide instruments for trade policy analysis. More specifically,the aim is to build a set of dynamic,theory-based econometric models which are able to capture both short-run and long-run effects of income and price changes,and which can be used for prediction and policy simulation under alternati e assumed conditions.A relati ely unrestricted,data determined,econometric modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used,in order to emphasise the importance of dynamics of trade functions.Econometric models are constructed for se en agricultural commodities –cassa a,cocoa,coconut oil,palm oil,pepper, rubber,and tea –exported from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEANto the European Union (EU.With the aim of providing broad commodity co erage,the intent is to explore whether the chosen modelling approach is able to catch the essentials of the behavioural relationships underlying the specialised nature of each commodity market. The import demand analysis of the study examines two key features:(1the response of EU ’s agricultural commodity imports to income and price changes,and (2the length of time required for this response to occur.The estimations of the export demand relationships provide tests whether the exporters ’ market shares are influenced by the le el of relati e export price,and whether exports are affected by ariations in the rate of growth of imports.The export supply analysis examines the relati e influence of real price and some non-price factors in stimulating the supply of exports.The lag distribution (the shape and length of the lagis found to be ery critical in export supply relationships,since the effects of price changes usually take a long time to work themselves through and since the transmission of the price effects can be complex.The set of

Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geman, Helyette; Ohana, Steve

2009-01-01

The role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by Kaldor [Kaldor, N. (1939) ''Speculation and Economic Stability'', The Review of Economic Studies 7, 1-27] and Working [Working, H. (1949) ''The theory of the price of storage'', American Economic Review, 39, 1254-1262] and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature, including the reference paper by Fama and French [Fama, E.F. and K.R. French (1987) ''Commodity futures prices: some evidence on forecast power, premiums and the theory of storage'', Journal of Business 60, 55-73] on metals. The goal of this paper is twofold: 1. validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory (the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality); 2. analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility. In agreement with the theory of storage, we find that: 1. the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil; 2. this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas. Our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year-database of US oil and natural gas prices and inventory. (author)

Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hung, Jui-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Chih; Liu, Hung-Chun

2008-01-01

The choice of an appropriate distribution for return innovations is important in VaR applications owing to its ability to directly affect the estimation quality of the required quantiles. This study investigates the influence of fat-tailed innovation process on the performance of one-day-ahead VaR estimates using three GARCH models (GARCH-N, GARCH-t and GARCH-HT). Daily spot prices of five energy commodities (WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, heating oil 2, propane and New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular) are used to compare the accuracy and efficiency of the VaR models. Empirical results suggest that for asset returns that exhibit leptokurtic and fat-tailed features, the VaR estimates generated by the GARCH-HT models have good accuracy at both low and high confidence levels. Additionally, MRSB indicates that the GARCH-HT model is more efficient than alternatives for most cases at high confidence levels. These findings suggest that the heavy-tailed distribution is more suitable for energy commodities, particularly VaR calculation. (author)

Legal-Economic Barriers To Price Transfers in Food Supply Chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bremmers, H.J.; Meulen, van der B.M.J.; Sredojevic, Z.; Wijnands, J.H.M.

2012-01-01

Recent price movements have put food supply chains under pressure. On the one side, upward price tendencies on commodity markets result in higher costs to processing firms. On the other side, these firms are confronted with a strong retail sector that is able to prevent compensation to protect

Research on the Pricing of Bundling Information Commodity%信息产品的捆绑定价问题研究

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

毛彦妮; 王刊良; 王龙伟

2003-01-01

This article studies the characteristics of low marginal cost of information commodity and points out that bundling information commodity is surprisingly profitable. After an analysis of the three factors affecting the sales income of bundling information commodity, that is, marginal cost, distribution of consumer' s valuation of bundling commodity and bundling size, a marketing strategy for bundling information commodity is proposed.

Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II

OpenAIRE

Wilfried Rickels; Dennis Görlich; Gerrit Oberst

2010-01-01

In 2005, the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) established a new commodity: the right to emit a ton of CO2 (EUA). Since its launch, the corresponding price has shown rather turbulent dynamics, including nervous reactions to policy announcements and a price collapse after a visible over-allocation in Phase I. As a consequence, the question whether fundamental factors (fossil fuel prices, economic activity, weather) affect the EUA price remained partially unresolved. Today, being halfwa...

Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

2013-01-01

Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

Speculative phenomena impact on oil prices formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Matthieu

2009-01-01

Crude oil prices evolution between 2007 and 2009 has been the centre of a major controversy. This paper aims to understand the structural changes which happened on the oil market during the past decade. Analysis is focused on the consequences on oil prices of growing financial investments in commodities. More specifically, emphasis is set on little commented facts that comfort the hypothesis of a speculative bubble between 2007 and 2009

The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yu Xin; Gongmeng Chen; Michael Firth

2006-01-01

This study investigates the efficiency of the Chinese metal futures (i.e. copper and aluminum) traded on China's Shanghai Futures Exchange. First, we thoroughly analyze the development of China's commodity futures markets, which provides a fundamental background. Then we examine the random walk and unbiasedness hypotheses for two metal futures during 1999-2004. Based on the empirical evidence, we argue that China's copper and aluminum futures markets are efficient, and that they aid the process of price discovery because futures prices can be considered as unbiased predictors of future spot prices. We attribute this efficiency to the regulatory changes made in 1999 and the increased financial skills and acumen of the participants in the market.

Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zant, W.

2001-01-01

This paper investigates a hypothetical hedging scheme in a domestic commodity market under which a commodity board offers a forward contract to domestic producers and local traders and covers its commitments on an international futures exchange. It is aimed to quantify welfare gains to agents in the

The price of crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakhtiari, A.M.S.

1999-01-01

The price of crude oil is among the most important prices quoted daily across the world - which is not surprising, since crude oil is the most widely used source of energy worldwide, as well as being a unique commodity. When petroleum burst onto the world stage in 1859, its price first went through some initial gyrations (1860-70), before settling in the $1.00 - 2.00 per barrel range (barring a few exceptions) for a full century. Then, the price underwent two 'shocks' (1973 and 1980), followed by the 'counter-shock' of 1986. Thereafter, the price entered the relative stability of the $15 - 20 /b consensus, where it lingered until recently. Some day, there is bound to be a fresh paradigm of 'insufficient oil reserves', thus ushering in a new era for oil prices. Taking into consideration available data on reserves and expert analysis, it would seem that that day may be years rather than decades away

The transmission and management of price volatility in food supply chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Assefa, Tsion Taye

2016-01-01

The 2006-2011 period has been marked by increased volatility in food an agricultural commodity prices at a global level. In the EU, the continuous liberalization of agricultural markets under the Common Agricultural Policy has led to the exposure of EU agricultural to increasing market price

Indonesia Export, Import, and Demand for Domestic Commodities under Economics Liberalisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Irawan

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to identify the behaviour of export, import and domestic commoditiesdemand in liberalization era both in the long run and the short run. This researchapplies the Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse ResponseAnalysis and Granger Causality Test. The data range from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The resultshows that in the long run the cross-price elasticity of imported non agricultural goods withrespect to demand for domestically produced goods have lower magnitudes than own priceelasticity of domestically produced goods. The demand elasticity of import commodities iselastic but that of domestic commodities is inelastic.Keywords: Import, Export, Economic Liberalization, Vector Error Correction Model

Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hegerty Scott W.

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, C.L.D.

2004-01-01

Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, C.L.D.

2004-07-01

Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

Main drivers of natural gas prices in the Czech Republic after the market liberalisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slabá, Monika; Gapko, Petr; Klimešová, Andrea

2013-01-01

One of the goals of the European Commission in the energy sector is creating a single competitive European market. The decision to liberalise energy markets has far-reaching consequences not only for gas companies, but also for the rest of the real economy in view of the fact that natural gas is being used as an important primary energy source in several sectors of production and in the power industry. We aim to answer how liberalisation/unbundling has influenced gas pricing/prices in the Czech Republic. We investigate the individual components of end-customer gas prices according to the value chain and we define and structure the drivers of these components. We use a case study from the Czech Republic, one of the Central and Eastern European countries, which, contrary to the old Member States, is buying most of its gas from one supplier (high import dependence and low supply diversity) and where the transmission and distribution network is characterised by a sufficient contractual and physical capacity. We stress that next to basic conditions on the European gas market (import dependency on external gas producers) legal and institutional conditions and the initial market structure of each Member State are also important for the results of the liberalisation. - Highlights: ► We deal with gas pricing in the Czech Republic after liberalisation/unbundling. ► The TSO, DSO price components have increased, the SSO price component has decreased. ► Commodity price for Households started to relate to hub prices. ► Commodity price for Corporates remained oil-linked, however discounts were provided. ► Only some Corporates experienced savings in total purchasing costs of gas.

Are high oil prices a threat for the price stability?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mollerus, A.

2000-01-01

The high price for oil and the decreased value of the Euro increase the risks for the stability of prices. Still, the prospects for inflation are favorable for the Euro zone. Less favorable are the consequences for the Netherlands, while the inflation difference with the Euro zone appears to become bigger, in particular as a result of the new Tax regulations in the Netherlands

Local Staple Food Price Indices in the Age of Biofuels

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Molly E.

2012-01-01

In many poor, food insecure regions, agriculture is a primary source of income and farmers are reliant both on their own production and on purchasing food in the market to feed their families. Large local food price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation and may be the consequence of weather-related food production declines, Dr can simply be the result of price transmission from the international commodity market. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets far from the places where the chronically food insecure live. A much better understanding of how local staple food prices in isolated regions such as West Africa that grow most of the food they eat to better understand the impact of global commodity market transformations on sensitive communities at the margin. This information will also enable improved strategies for these farmers who are extraordinarily sensitive to climate change impacts on agricultural growing conditions.

Dating breaks for global crude oil prices and their volatility : a possible price band for global crude prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao, H.C.; Suen, Y.B.

2006-01-01

Global oil prices are among the most visible of all historical commodity records. This paper presented and applied the multiple structural change method developed by Baie and Perron (BP) to investigate daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices from January 2, 1986 to December 30, 2004 as collected by the United States Department of Energy. In particular, the BP statistical method was used to estimate the number and location of structural breaks in global oil price series and their volatility. The objective was to precisely determine the exact structural break in the global oil market. The breaks for both the price of oil and its volatility were successfully located and dated. It was shown that the break for the structural change in oil prices occurred on November 12, 1999, where the average oil price was U$19.02 per barrel previously, and U$30.90 afterwards. Two breaks for oil price volatility were also found, the first in March 1991 and the other in December 1995. The volatility was measured in 3 regimes by dividing these 2 breaks. It was suggested that since oil prices increased more rapidly during the second half of 2004 and 2005, it is possible that another structural break may be found during this period. However, it wa cautioned that it is difficult to find another significant break until more data becomes available, particularly for periods characterized by a rapid increase in price. 24 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geman, Helyette [Birkbeck, University of London (United Kingdom); ESCP-EAP (France); Ohana, Steve [ESCP-EAP (France)

2009-07-15

The role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by Kaldor [Kaldor, N. (1939) ''Speculation and Economic Stability'', The Review of Economic Studies 7, 1-27] and Working [Working, H. (1949) ''The theory of the price of storage'', American Economic Review, 39, 1254-1262] and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature, including the reference paper by Fama and French [Fama, E.F. and K.R. French (1987) ''Commodity futures prices: some evidence on forecast power, premiums and the theory of storage'', Journal of Business 60, 55-73] on metals. The goal of this paper is twofold: 1. validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory (the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality); 2. analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility. In agreement with the theory of storage, we find that: 1. the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil; 2. this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas. Our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year-database of US oil and natural gas prices and inventory. (author)

Information pricing based on trusted system

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zehua; Zhang, Nan; Han, Hongfeng

2018-05-01

Personal information has become a valuable commodity in today's society. So our goal aims to develop a price point and a pricing system to be realistic. First of all, we improve the existing BLP system to prevent cascading incidents, design a 7-layer model. Through the cost of encryption in each layer, we develop PI price points. Besides, we use association rules mining algorithms in data mining algorithms to calculate the importance of information in order to optimize informational hierarchies of different attribute types when located within a multi-level trusted system. Finally, we use normal distribution model to predict encryption level distribution for users in different classes and then calculate information prices through a linear programming model with the help of encryption level distribution above.

Pricing Policy and Strategies for Consumer High-Tech Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dovleac, L.

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper highlights the complex process of price setting for consumer high-tech products. These prices are highly influenced by some external factors from the economic and social environment. The main objective of this paper is to establish the most effective pricing policies and strategies used by high-tech companies of various sizes. Decisions about price fixing for consumer high-technology products are largely influenced by consumer behaviour, too.

Logistics: Price Rises Incurred by High Oil Price

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Lai Zhihui

2011-01-01

@@ "When the oil price grows by 100%, the logistic indus-try will see a price growth of 40%, while the logistics in-dustry a price rise of 35%, which means every price increase of 5% in the oil price will bring along that of 2% in this industry." said Liu Zongsheng, General Manager of Itochu Logistics Co., Ltd., on the seminar "Focusing on the eco-nomic consequences of raising oil price, interest rate and deposit reserve ratio", which was held recently.

Uma avaliação da volatilidade dos preços da soja no mercado internacional com dados de alta frequência An evaluation of the volatility of soybeans prices in the international market using high frequency data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Domingues Simões

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Neste trabalho foram avaliados os ajustes de cinco modelos para previsão da variância, utilizando-se uma série de preços de soja, uma commodity negociada na bolsa de mercadorias de Chicago (CBOT, com dados de alta frequência. Os modelos utilizados foram do tipo GARCH, FIGARCH e ARFIMA. Foi possível observar características desta série de preços de uma commodity negociada globalmente que se apresentaram inteiramente diferentes daquelas de ativos financeiros anteriormente estudados, possivelmente em virtude da característica contínua dos preços observados, induzida pela sua negociação global independente de pregões com início e fim. Foi possível concluir que a série de dados de alta frequência encerra informações adicionais às séries de dados diários, também no caso estudado de preços da soja, e que o tradicional modelo GARCH(1,1 tem um bom desempenho também no caso dos dados de alta frequência, assim como aqueles da família ARFIMA. Recomenda-se mais investigação para o caso dos modelos FIGARCH, procurando um melhor ajuste.In the present study, five volatility prediction models were evaluated using a series of soybeans prices, a commodity traded in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, using high-frequency data. The models used belonged to the GARCH, FIGARCH and ARFIMA families. It was possible to observe entirely different characteristics of this commodity price series, which is negotiated on a global scale, from those of the financial assets previously studied, possibly due to the continuity of the price series studied allowed by the global negotiation nature of this trade, fully independent of daily exchange markets subject to opening and closing times. It was possible to conclude that the high-frequency price data do provide additional information to the traditional daily time series, also in the case of soybeans, and that the traditional GARCH(1,1 model also has good performance on the high-frequency price data just

Natural gas : a highly lucrative commodity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2000-01-01

Exploration and production of natural gas has become highly profitable as natural gas is becoming a leading future commodity. With new technology, high demand and environmental benefits, natural gas is the preferred choice over petroleum as the leading source of energy to heat home and businesses. Canada is the world's third largest producer of natural gas with its Sable Offshore Energy Project being the fourth largest producing natural gas basin in North America. The basin will produce high quality sweet natural gas from 28 production wells over the course of the next 20 to 25 years. The gas will be transported to markets through Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and into the Northeastern United States via the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline. The 1051 kilometer underground gas pipeline is currently running laterals to Halifax, Nova Scotia and Saint John, New Brunswick. Market studies are being conducted to determine if additional lines are needed to serve Cape Breton, Prince Edward Island and northern New Brunswick. A recent survey identified the following 5 reasons to convert to natural gas: (1) it is safe, (2) it is reliable, (3) it is easy to use, (4) it is cleaner burning and environmentally friendly compared to other energy sources, and (5) it saves the consumer money

"Photographing money" task pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Zhongxiang

2018-05-01

"Photographing money" [1]is a self-service model under the mobile Internet. The task pricing is reasonable, related to the success of the commodity inspection. First of all, we analyzed the position of the mission and the membership, and introduced the factor of membership density, considering the influence of the number of members around the mission on the pricing. Multivariate regression of task location and membership density using MATLAB to establish the mathematical model of task pricing. At the same time, we can see from the life experience that membership reputation and the intensity of the task will also affect the pricing, and the data of the task success point is more reliable. Therefore, the successful point of the task is selected, and its reputation, task density, membership density and Multiple regression of task positions, according to which a nhew task pricing program. Finally, an objective evaluation is given of the advantages and disadvantages of the established model and solution method, and the improved method is pointed out.

Price comparison of high-cost originator medicines in European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Sabine; Zimmermann, Nina; Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din

2017-04-01

In recent years, high-cost medicines have increasingly been challenging the public health budget in all countries including high-income economies. In this context, this study aims to survey, analyze and compare prices of medicines that likely contribute to high expenditure for the public payers in high-income countries. We chose the following 16 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Slovakia, Spain and United Kingdom. The ex-factory price data of 30 medicines in these countries were collected in national databases accessible through the Pharmaceutical Price Information (PPI) service of Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (Austrian Public Health Institute). The ex-factory prices (median) per unit (e.g. per tablet, vial) ranged from 10.67 cent (levodopa + decarboxylase inhibitor) to 17,000 euro (ipilimumab). A total of 53% of the medicines surveyed had a unit ex-factory price (median) above 200 Euro. For two thirds of the medicines, price differences between the highest-priced country and lowest-priced country ranged between 25 and 100%; the remaining medicines, mainly low-priced medicines, had higher price differential, up to 251%. Medicines with unit prices of a few euros or less were medicines for the treatment of diseases in the nervous system (anti-depressants, medicines to treat Parkinson and for the management of neuropathic pain), of obstructive airway diseases and cardio-vascular medicines (lipid modifying agents). High-priced medicines were particularly cancer medicines. Medicine prices of Greece, Hungary, Slovakia and UK were frequently at the lower end, German and Swedish, as well as Danish and Irish prices at the upper end. For high-priced medicines, actual paid prices are likely to be lower due to confidential discounts and similar funding arrangements between industry and public payers. Pricing authorities refer to the higher undiscounted prices when they use

Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bech-Larsen, Tino

2001-01-01

by the appearance of changing demands and technological opportunities, which potentially can lead to differentiation possibilities. The article describes a framework for the study of industrial buying of food commodities and the results of a conjoint study based on interviews with oil purchasers in the margarine...... and mayonnaise industries in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The main result of the study is that the price is an omnipotent decision criterion, when vegetable fats and mayonnaise producers buy vegetable oil, but also that product and supplier criteria can be used to segment...

The energy saving possibilities of CDS (Commodity Services System) for large-scale consumers. Calculating and combining for an ideal mix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Gelder, J.W.

1999-01-01

Gasunie's new price scheme, the Commodity Services Sector (CDS), will soon apply to all large-scale consumers. Although the scheme is complicated, it does offer various opportunities to reduce the gas bill. The natural gas price was determined solely by volume, whereas the costs largely depend on the services rendered to the customer such as transmission and capacity. The logical solution is thus to charge the customer separately for the gas and the services. In the future, the gas bill will therefore comprise three elements: commodity (gas), capacity and transmission. As far as capacity is concerned, the user can choose between base capacity, additional capacity, incidental capacity and hourly capacity, depending on the natural gas consumption pattern

The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radukić Snežana

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In the Republic of Serbia, food accounts for a significant share in the consumer price index through which the inflation is statistically expressed. Therefore, in considerations of the basic factors of increase in the general price level, a special emphasis is placed on the specific features of the market of agricultural-food products. The aim of this research is to peruse the effect of the characteristics of the food market in Serbia on the inflation rate. High volatility of food prices is present because of the instability of this market, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations of supply and the effect of natural factors. Bearing in mind that the increase in food prices is the main determinant of the increase in the inflation rate, the indirect state control is very important so as to maintain price stability. Special importance is attached to the following instruments of economic policy: commodity reserves, storage policy, and fiscal and foreign trade policy.

A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration......In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...

PROCESS OF GLOBAL SHOCKS TRANSMISSION TO DOMESTIC FOOD PRICE LEVEL: CASE OF BANGLADESH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fakir Azmal Huda

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The world experienced in dramatic price surge of food commodities since mid of 2007 to 2008. It was claimed that the crisis were being mainly for backdrop of global shocks in food and energy price. But how the shocks come to domestic market from external sources is a researchable phenomenon. Surprisingly few attempts have been made to systematically analysis of shock transmission from international to domestic market. The study analyzed the effect of global commodity market factors and domestic exchange rate development on domestic food price in Bangladesh. A bi-variants co-integration approach was applied for the analysis of shock transmission. Finally an error correction model was developed. The overall magnitudes of the pass through suggest that only 46 per cent of the total world shock pass-through in domestic economy.

The logic of the primary energy prices evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giraud, P.N.

1992-01-01

This paper deals, very briefly, with the basis factors determining the prices levels of the primary energies and the logic of their evolution both in the short and in the long term. It first gives definitions: of the limits of mineral commodities prices fluctuations and of the long term equilibrium prices. Then, it tries to demonstrate three points: (1) Coal and nuclear electricity prices are driven in the long term only by their own production and environmental costs. Moreover, coal prices fluctuations are surrounded by factors which are basically independent from oil prices. (2) There is no such thing as one single equilibrium price for oil, but several ones, depending on political factors, and among them, on the degree of consensus between the 'Five' of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Irak, Koweit, The Emirates). (3) Natural gas prices are in an intermediate situation, but tend to get closer to the case of coal and nuclear prices. 4 figs

Global stocks of selected mineral-based commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Wilburn, David R.; Bleiwas, Donald I.; Karl, Nick A.

2016-12-05

IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, analyzes mineral and metal supply chains by identifying and describing major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. This report focuses on an important component of the world’s supply chain: the amounts and global distribution of major consumer, producer, and exchange stocks of selected mineral commodities. In this report, the term “stock” is used instead of “inventory” and refers to accumulations of mined ore, intermediate products, and refined mineral-based commodities that are in a form that meets the agreed-upon specifications of a buyer or processor of intermediate products. These may include certain ores such as bauxite, concentrates, smelter products, and refined metals. Materials sometimes referred to as inventory for accounting purposes, such as ore contained in a deposit or in a leach pile, or materials that need to be further processed before they can be shipped to a consumer, are not considered. Stocks may be held (owned) by consumers, governments, investors, producers, and traders. They may serve as (1) a means to achieve economic, social, and strategic goals through government policies; (2) a secure source of supply to meet demand and to mitigate potential shortages in the supply chain; (3) a hedge to mitigate price volatility; and (4) vehicles for speculative investment.The paucity and uneven reliability of data for stocks of ores and concentrates and for material held by producers, consumers, and merchants hinder the accurate estimating of the size and distribution of this portion of the supply chain for certain commodities. This paper reviews the more visible stocks held in commodity exchange warehouses distributed throughout the world.

Real Time Business Analytics for Buying or Selling Transaction on Commodity Warehouse Receipt System

Science.gov (United States)

Djatna, Taufik; Teniwut, Wellem A.; Hairiyah, Nina; Marimin

2017-10-01

The requirement for smooth information such as buying and selling is essential for commodity warehouse receipt system such as dried seaweed and their stakeholders to transact for an operational transaction. Transactions of buying or selling a commodity warehouse receipt system are a risky process due to the fluctuations in dynamic commodity prices. An integrated system to determine the condition of the real time was needed to make a decision-making transaction by the owner or prospective buyer. The primary motivation of this study is to propose computational methods to trace market tendency for either buying or selling processes. The empirical results reveal that feature selection gain ratio and k-NN outperforms other forecasting models, implying that the proposed approach is a promising alternative to the stock market tendency of warehouse receipt document exploration with accurate level rate is 95.03%.

Hydro power projects in Pakistan- who pays the price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baig, N.

2005-01-01

In this paper an attempt has been made to trace the procedures that have been adopted to arrive at the market value of the assets lost in the construction of Ghazi Barotha Hydro Power Project. There is nothing secret or mysterious about the value of land. It is a commodity commonly dealt with and like every other commodity it. has a price, which can be ascertained within certain limits. This price, however, constantly varies according to the variations of the supply and demand and it is impossible to fix it at any given time with mathematical accuracy. The question of fair compensation is not an algebraic problem, which would be solved by an abstract formula. Compensation must be determined by reference to the price, which a willing vendor might reasonably expect to obtain from a willing purchaser. Although market value cannot be calculated with mathematical precision and a certain amount of conjecture is inevitable, but in valuing one should be careful not to go too far in this direction. (author)

East African governments' responses to high cereal prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijerink, G.W.; Roza, P.; Berkum, van S.

2009-01-01

This study analyses the responses of governments in four East African countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia) with respect to price formation and price transmission in the cereal sector. All four countries were confronted with high cereal prices in 2008. Government policies applied largely

Crop Monitoring as a Tool for Modelling the Genesis of Millet Prices in Senegal

Science.gov (United States)

Jacques, D.; Marinho, E.; Defourny, P.; Waldner, F.; d'Andrimont, R.

2015-12-01

Food security in Sahelian countries strongly relies on the ability of markets to transfer staplesfrom surplus to deficit areas. Market failures, leading to the inefficient geographical allocation of food,are expected to emerge from high transportation costs and information asymmetries that are commonin moderately developed countries. As a result, important price differentials are observed betweenproducing and consuming areas which damages both poor producers and food insecure consumers. Itis then vital for policy makers to understand how the prices of agricultural commodities are formed byaccounting for the existing market imperfections in addition to local demand and supply considerations. To address this issue, we have gathered an unique and diversified set of data for Senegal andintegrated it in a spatially explicit model that simulates the functioning of agricultural markets, that isfully consistent with the economic theory. Our departure point is a local demand and supply modelaround each market having its catchment areas determined by the road network. We estimate the localsupply of agricultural commodities from satellite imagery while the demand is assumed to be a functionof the population living in the area. From this point on, profitable transactions between areas with lowprices to areas with high prices are simulated for different levels of per kilometer transportation costand information flows (derived from call details records i.e. mobile phone data). The simulated prices are then comparedwith the actual millet prices. Despite the parsimony of the model that estimates only two parameters, i.e. the per kilometertransportation cost and the information asymmetry resulting from low levels of mobile phone activitybetween markets, it impressively explains more than 80% of the price differentials observed in the 40markets included in the analysis. In one hand these results can be used in the assessment of the socialwelfare impacts of the further development of

Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis Africana (guill. ... select five markets based on the presence of traders selling the commodity in the markets ... T- test result showed that Prosopis africana seed trade is profitable and ...

Cuba's transition to market-based energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Lopez, J.F.

1992-01-01

Since 1960 the Soviet Union has been, for all practical purposes, Cuba's exclusive supplier of energy products. For certain time periods, Soviet sales of oil and oil products to Cuba were made at concessional prices; prior to 1991, they were priced using transferable rubles and were essentially bartered for Cuban goods, especially sugar. Effective January 1, 1991, the Soviet Union shifted to world market prices and convertible currency payments for all traded commodities, including energy products. The shift to market prices and convertible currencies in Cuban-Soviet energy trade has already brought - or is likely to bring - a number of adjustments in four areas: (1) the trade balance; (2) the ability to reexport oil and oil products; (3) energy consumption patterns; (4) and the structure of energy supplies. 33 refs., 8 tabs

Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nuhu Isah

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

The role of internal reference prices in consumers' willingness to pay judgments: Thaler's Beer Pricing Task revisited.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranyard, R; Charlton, J P; Williamson, J

2001-02-01

Alternative reference prices, either displayed in the environment (external) or recalled from memory (internal) are known to influence consumer judgments and decisions. In one line of previous research, internal reference prices have been defined in terms of general price expectations. However, Thaler (Marketing Science 4 (1985) 199; Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 12 (1999) 183) defined them as fair prices expected from specific types of seller. Using a Beer Pricing Task, he found that seller context had a substantial effect on willingness to pay, and concluded that this was due to specific internal reference prices evoked by specific contexts. In a think aloud study using the same task (N = 48), we found only a marginal effect of seller context. In a second study using the Beer Pricing Task and seven analogous ones (N = 144), general internal reference prices were estimated by asking people what they normally paid for various commodities. Both general internal reference prices and seller context influenced willingness to pay, although the effect of the latter was again rather small. We conclude that general internal reference prices have a greater impact in these scenarios than specific ones, because of the lower cognitive load involved in their storage and retrieval.

Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Despite a large number of studies that examine the influence of biofuels and biofuel policy on commodity prices, the impact of biofuel policy on commodity price variability is poorly understood. A good understanding of biofuel policy’s impact on price variability is important for mitigating food insecurity and assisting policy formation. We examine how U.S. ethanol policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and the blend wall affect the price variability of corn and gasoline. We first present an analytical and graphical framework to identify the effect and then use stochastic partial equilibrium simulation to measure the magnitude of the impacts. We show that RFS mandates and the blend wall both reduce the price elasticity of demand for corn and gasoline and therefore increase the price variability when supply shocks occur to the markets. This has important implications for policy actions with respect to maintaining or changing the current RFS mandates and/or blend wall in the US. -- Highlights: ► The RFS is found to lead to less elastic demand for corn and gasoline. ► Thus the RFS is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices when supply shocks occur. ► The ethanol blend wall is found to lead to less elastic corn and gasoline demand. ► Thus the blend wall is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices.

R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lucke, D.; Schröder, Philipp; D., Schumacher,

2004-01-01

This paper explores the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and the R&D intensity of the product. We introduce the concept of R&D intensity into a standard Dixit-Stiglitz/Krugman-type setting. R&D activity is treated as a fixed cost of production. Within this framework, sectors...... with a higher R&D intensity show a lower price elasticity of demand. This proposition is confirmed by an empirical investigation of export demand for manufactured goods from major industrialised countries. Consequently, real exchange rate changes have an impact on the commodity structure of exports....

Reconciling biofuels, sustainability and commodities demand. Pitfalls and policy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uslu, A.; Bole, T.; Londo, M.; Pelkmans, L.; Berndes, G.; Prieler, S.; Fischer, G.; Cueste Cabal, H.

2010-06-01

Increasing fossil fuel prices, energy security considerations and environmental concerns, particularly concerning climate change, have motivated countries to explore alternative energy sources including biofuels. Global demand for biofuels has been rising rapidly due to biofuel support policies established in many countries. However, proposed strong links between biofuels demand and recent years' high food commodity prices, and notions that increasing biofuels production might bring about serious negative environmental impacts, in particularly associated with the land use change to biofuel crops, have shifted public enthusiasm about biofuels. In this context, the ELOBIO project aims at shedding further light to these aspects of biofuel expansion by collecting and reviewing the available data, and also developing strategies to decrease negative effects of biofuels while enabling their positive contribution to climate change, security of supply and rural development. ELOBIO considers aspects associated with both 1st and 2nd generation biofuels, hence analyses effects on both agricultural commodity markets and lignocellulosic markets. This project, funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe programme, consists of a review of current experiences with biofuels and other renewable energy policies and their impacts on other markets, iterative stakeholder-supported development of low-disturbing biofuels policies, model supported assessment of these policies' impacts on food, feed and lignocellulosic markets, and finally an assessment of the effects of selected optimal policies on biofuels costs and potentials. Results of the ELOBIO study show that rapid biofuel deployment without careful monitoring of consequences and implementation of mitigating measures risks leading to negative consequences. Implementing ambitious global biofuel targets for 2020, based on current 1st generation technologies, can push international agricultural commodity prices upwards and increase crop

Natural Resources Management: The Effect of the Commodity Boom on Indonesia’s Industrial Development and Welfare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Monica Wihardja

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The end of the commodity boom in 2012 once again exposed Indonesia to the vulnerability of the commodity price shocks. This article reviews how Indonesia managed its natural resources in 2001–12 and when the commodity boom ends. What are the lessons learned? Indonesia’s experience is similar to that of other countries rich in natural resources, including the crowding-out of non-commodity sectors, protectionist trade regimes, fiscal inefficiency, slow skill accumulation, rising inequality and environmental damages. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–09, the early trade -policy response at the end of the commodity boom is inward-looking and protective of domestic markets and industries and aims to increase the added value of commodities by downstreaming. This trend is clearly reflected in the 2014 Trade Law, the 2014 Industry Law and the mineral export ban, which was introduced in 2009 through the 2009 Law on Mining of Coal and Minerals and took effect in 2014. Indonesia should learn from other countries in managing its resource revenues, such as through a commodity fund designed to fit its domestic specificity. Reindustrializing, increasing agricultural productivity beyond palm oil and tapping the country’s potential in the services sector including tourism and creative industries are also necessary to promote diversification in production and trade. Resource management policy should also include stronger environmental regulations.

The Normative Impact of Consumer Price Expectations for Multiple Brands on Consumer Purchase Behavior

OpenAIRE

Aradhna Krishna

1992-01-01

Empirical research indicates that some consumers form price expectations which may impact their purchase behavior. While literature in operations research has built purchase policy models incorporating uncertain price expectations, these models have been built for commodities. Consumers face an environment with multiple brands. In this paper, we develop a model that incorporates consumer preferences and price expectations for multiple brands as determinants of normative consumer purchase beha...

Do food and oil prices co-move?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reboredo, Juan C.

2012-01-01

This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.

Importance of Electricity Transport Pricing in Liberalised Energy Markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wohlgemuth, N.

2001-01-01

Electricity has traditionally been supplied by vertically integrated companies providing generation, transmission and distribution services. Consumers have purchased a bundled commodity - delivered electricity - and there has been no need to price the components individually. This is no longer the case in competitive and unbundled electricity markets. One of the outstanding issues in the restructuring of the electricity markets is the way in which transmission costs are translated into tariffs. The efforts to create a single European electricity market are difficult to reconcile due to different national network pricing approaches. The European Commission's draft regulation on conditions for access to the network for cross-border exchanges of electricity sets general principles for the pricing of international electricity exchanges. Nodal pricing provides incentives for an efficient use of generation and transmission assets. Experience shows that nodal pricing is workable, and its use may be expected to increase progressively. Postage stamp pricing does not generally provide adequate incentives for efficiency. However, inefficiencies may be small under certain conditions, and postage stamp pricing has the advantage of being relatively transparent and easy to implement. This paper presents an overview of objectives related to an effective design of transmission pricing approaches, of transmission pricing models and presents recent developments in Europe in this respect. Due to the great number of institutional designs of electricity market organisations, it will be difficult to design and implement a model of cross-border transmission pricing that results in a high degree of non-discriminatory international competition in electricity markets, a key objective of the Electricity Directive.(author)

17 CFR 229.1204 - (Item 1204) Oil and gas production, production prices and production costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... production, production prices and production costs. 229.1204 Section 229.1204 Commodity and Securities... production, production prices and production costs. (a) For each of the last three fiscal years disclose... production cost, not including ad valorem and severance taxes, per unit of production. Instruction 1 to Item...

Transatlantic natural gas price and oil price relationships - an empirical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasquez Josse, C.I.; Neumann, A.

2006-09-01

Markets for natural gas in industrialized countries have witnessed profound changes in the past two decades. Trade of natural gas at spot markets in North America and Europe expanded and intensified significantly as a direct result of liberalization efforts. We test the relationships of weekly prices for crude oil and natural gas on either side of the Atlantic Basin between 1999 and 2005. Applying co-integration methodology we identify a move toward integration of historically and geographically separated markets for the homogeneous commodity natural gas. (authors)

Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, Derek; Chevallier, Julien; Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

2013-01-01

As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, using the large approximate factor models methodology we investigate whether common factors derived from a large international dataset of real and nominal macro variables are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for hedging and speculative activity, showing that speculation increases and hedging reduces the inter-commodity correlations. (authors)

Potential of commodity chemicals to become bio-based according to maximum yields and petrochemical prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Straathof, Adrie J.J.; Bampouli, A.

2017-01-01

Carbohydrates are the prevailing biomass components available for bio-based production. The most direct way to convert carbohydrates into commodity chemicals is by one-step conversion at maximum theoretical yield, such as by anaerobic fermentation without side product formation. Considering these

Water : a commodity or resource?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pomeroy, G.

2003-01-01

Over the past several years, natural gas demand has increased significantly, as it is seen as an environmentally friendly, convenient and cost effective fuel. As a result, Alberta should experience the development of a sustainable resource in the form of natural gas from coal, provided adequate management of associated water is in place. The environmental impact and volume of water produced with natural gas from coal can be significant. Water is scarce and demand is growing. Gas producers are faced with the challenge of high water production and disposal costs, and often choose the deep disposal option as the most economical solution. However, environmentalists and agriculture groups who view water as a valuable resource, warrant the costs associated with the treatment of produced water. The author proposed a conceptual solution to this dilemma concerning produced water. It was suggested that producers of water should be connected with consumers, while allowing free market supply and demand dynamics to price out the inefficient use of the resource. The author also discussed the related regulatory, environmental, technological, economic, and commercial issues. It was concluded that water is both a resource and a commodity. Alberta should implement measures to promote water conservation, pollute less, and manage supply and demand. figs

Uranium-world reserves and the trend of the world market price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijadi, Soetjipto

1980-01-01

Theoritically the reserves of uranium can be said to be unlimited, since it is a very common commodity and it is found in almost every kind of rock. The geochemical abundance of U is similar to Sn, around 1 p.p.m. Before the year 1973 the price of uranium was very stable because for 20 years the commercial uranium market history could be described only two price phases. (author)

High oil prices: A non-OPEC capacity game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmundsen, Petter; Asche, Frank; Misund, Baard; Mohn, Klaus

2005-08-01

The current high oil price is partly due to low investments in the oil industry the last decade. According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE, for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, the demand for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Thus, we have experienced an unusual combination of high oil prices and low investment levels in exploration and development. In many ways, the oil companies' focus on RoACE, at the expense of reserve replacement, resembles an implicit co-ordination on low capacity among non-OPEC petroleum producers. This is a partial explanation of the current high oil prices. By examining actual parameters used by the financial markets in pricing of oil companies, we address the issue of whether the low investment outcome could represent a long-term equilibrium. This is hardly likely, as oil companies are made aware that stronger emphasis is put on reserve replacement. (Author)

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCARCITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND THEIR REAL PRICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland Toth

2011-01-01

Full Text Available There has been a long running concern about resource depletion. Some argue this concern is misplaced, while others consider it to be an urgent problem requiring immediate action. Economists suggest that long term prices, adjusted for inflation (real prices, provide a useful and effective indicator of resource scarcity. This study tests this hypothesis in consideration of the accepted theory that traditional price deflators, such as the US consumer price index, overestimate inflation-, and accordingly-, are likely to underestimate long term commodity prices. To investigate the usefulness of real prices as an indicator of scarcity, a case study of two metals considered to be expensive (platinum and rhodium and two considered to be relatively inexpensive (copper and lead was used. Real long term price indices were constructed and econometric analysis used to determine the direction and significance of long-term price trends and whether real prices were correlated with other scarcity indicators such as the Reserves-toproduction ratio. The results show, when an appropriate adjustment is made to the deflator, long-run trends in real metal prices are all upward, and there is a significant relationship between the real prices and scarcity indicators, such as the reserves-to-production ratios, for platinum and rhodium, but not for copper and lead. These findings suggest that real prices of platinum and rhodium are more affected by their scarcity, while copper and lead prices are likely to be more dependent on other factors such as high substitutability with other virgin and recycled materials.

The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

2005-01-01

In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

Conceptual Model of Supply Chain Structure Mapping - A Case of Subsidized LPG Commodity in Yogyakarta

Science.gov (United States)

Sulistio, Joko; Thoif, Afifuddin; Fitri Alindira, Aulia

2016-01-01

— In 2007, the government launched a conversion program of kerosene to LPG by issuing a Presidential Regulation No. 104/2007 on Supply, Distribution and Pricing LPG 3 Kg. Article 2 on the regulation says that setting the supply, distribution, and pricing of LPG 3 Kg include planning an annual sales volume of enterprises, the reference price and the retail price and conditions of export and import of LPG 3 Kg in order to reduce subsidies Kerosene especially to divert the use of kerosene according to government policy. In principle, the purpose of this policy is to reduce energy subsidies on commodities, especially Kerosene. Although the government claimed the conversion program is success, there are few problems arising from conversion program. In 2014, many scarcity and high price of LPG 3 Kg were reported. In this case, Pertamina was given full authority to manage all supply chain and distribution. Because the root of the problem of scarcity that occurred in the supply chain system has not been explained, the proposed solutions will also be partial and not comprehensive. Thus, this research will build a structural map of the causes of supply chain system LPG 3 Kg, as well as providing a comprehensive picture of system dynamics of LPG 3 Kg supply chain system which applied in Indonesia. And the result is expected as in form of Causal Loop Diagram of supply chain system.

High bandwidth concurrent processing on commodity platforms

CERN Document Server

Boosten, M; Van der Stok, P D V

1999-01-01

The I/O bandwidth and real-time processing power required for high- energy physics experiments is increasing rapidly over time. The current requirements can only be met by using large-scale concurrent processing. We are investigating the use of a large PC cluster interconnected by Fast and Gigabit Ethernet to meet the performance requirements of the ATLAS second level trigger. This architecture is attractive because of its performance and competitive pricing. A major problem is obtaining frequent high-bandwidth I/O without sacrificing the CPU's processing power. We present a tight integration of a user-level scheduler and a zero-copy communication layer. This system closely approaches the performance of the underlying hardware in terms of both CPU power and I/O capacity. (0 refs).

Pick by click. Online-markets for commodities; Zuschlag per Mausklick. Elektronische Marktplaetze in der Energiewirtschaft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haug, M.; Schreiber, M. [EUtech Energie- und Umweltberatung GbR, Aachen (Germany); Aixergy AG, Aachen (Germany)

2000-07-01

The deregulation of the German energy market has led to growing competition (among the utilities), causing prices to crumble. Consumers must intensify their search efforts considerably in order to identify the most suitable utility. Internet-based 'B2B' market-places for commodities such as electricity, gas and water help to optimise the match between demand and supply. (orig.) [German] Mit dem Wegfall der Gebietsmonopole herrscht Wettbewerb auf dem Energiemarkt. Sinkende Preise sind die Folge. Fuer die Energieverbraucher wird es immer aufwendiger, den fuer sie guenstigsten Anbieter zu ermitteln. Hier sehen internetbasierte Handelsplattformen ihre Chance. Ueber B2B-Plattformen lassen sich Strom, Gas, Heizoel oder andere Commodities vertreiben. (orig.)

Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, Les

2012-01-01

Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

Oil turbulence in the next decade. An essay on high oil prices in a supply-constrained world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jesse, J.H.; Van der Linde, C.

2008-06-01

A CIEP analysis of the recent development of demand and supply for crude oil indicates that the mismatch in supply and demand growth could cause tighter oil markets than we already experience today. In the World Energy Outlook 2007, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible 'energy crunch'. But what was anticipated to happen in the first part of the next decade has been fast-forwarded to today, more than 5 years earlier, and could shake the very foundation of our energy systems if no action is undertaken. Without exaggeration, the recent developments in the international oil market are ground-breaking: a little over a year ago, in January 2007, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI) traded for USD50 dollar a barrel. Within a year, the price doubled to USD100 per barrel in January 2008 and pushed through to over USD135 in June 2008, against the backdrop of the fresh market supposition about reaching a whopping USD200 per barrel in 2009. If this proves to be true, the world will not only have moved from an 'Oil Demand-led World' to an 'Oil Supply-constrained World' (since 2004) but, more importantly, will then also experience a radical change in the oil price formation. Until recently, the oil price was largely underpinned by the marginal cost of the last barrel needed to match demand, with some political and economic conjuncture mark-ups or -downs. As will be presented in this paper, the current high oil prices are still primarily driven by structural factors that can be well explained without resorting to blaming speculative investors playing the futures market or the low dollar. But if prices are heading towards USD200 a barrel in 12 months' time, or for that matter even to USD150 a barrel, other drivers will gain prominence over marginal costs as the main driver. In that case, OPEC will have accomplished a long-held wish: oil will then be priced at its real value in the Western world (for instance the economic value of mobility for

Market, trading and coal price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muller, J.C.; Cornot-Gandolphe, S.; Labrunie, L.; Lemoine, St.; Vandijck, M.

2006-01-01

The coal world experienced a true upheaval in the past five years World coal consumption went up 28 % between 2000 and 2005, as a result of the strong growth in Chinese demand. The growth should continue in the coming years: electrical plant builders' orders are mainly for coal. The regained interest in coal is based on the constraints experienced by competing energies (increase in oil and natural gas prices, geopolitical uncertainties, supply difficulties) and by the abundant reserves of coal in the world and the competitiveness of its price. The strong growth in world coal demand comes with a change in rules governing steam coal trading. While long term bilateral agreements were most common until the late nineties, there has been a true revolution in coal marketing since 2000: spot contracts, stock exchange emergence and futures contracts, price indexes. In a few years, the steam coal market has become a true commodities market, overtaking many more goods. The price of coal has also gone through strong variations since 2003. Whereas the price had been stable for decades, in 2004 the strong increase in China' s demand for coal and iron ore resulting in transport shortage, caused a strong increase in CAF coal prices. Since then, prices have gone down, but remain higher than the Eighties and Nineties levels. In spite of the increase, coal remains available at more competitive prices than its competing energies. (authors)

The impact of high oil prices on natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koevoet, H.

2003-01-01

The principle of gas-to-oil (oil prices determine the price of natural gas) in the Netherlands and several other developments elsewhere (war in Iraq and a cold winter in the USA) has caused high natural gas prices. The question is whether the liberalization of the energy market can change this principle [nl

Uranium prices approaching a 7 year high

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

This paper provides a market overview of the uranium market. The spot market activity totaled approximately 1.1 million lbs of U3O8 and equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range jumped from a high last month of $12.25 to a low this month of $12.45 There was a more moderate increase in the unrestricted range with this month's low end rising to last month's high of $10.15. Conversion prices remained steady and the lower end of the SWU range rose slightly to $92

Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

Science.gov (United States)

Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

2014-12-01

World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

A Descriptive Analysis of Supply Factors and Prices for USDA Foods in the National School Lunch Program

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Cora

2010-01-01

Purpose/Objectives: Schools that participate in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) receive a portion of their annual federal funding as commodity entitlement foods--now called USDA Foods--rather than cash payments. Due to rising food prices in recent years, it has been recommended that schools compare the costs and benefits of commodity and…

Farm Foundation Issue Report: What's Driving Food Prices?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none,

2008-07-01

This report provides an assessment of the major forces behind the dramatic increases in commodity prices. It is intended to provide objective information that will help all stakeholders meet the challenge to address one of the most critical public policy issues facing the world today.

High Penetrated Wind Farm Impacts on the Electricity Price

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haji Bashi, Mazaher; Yousefi, G. R.; Bak, Claus Leth

2016-01-01

of the high penetrated wind farm integration into electricity markets. Then, stochastic programming approach is employed to compare the volume of trades for a typical wind farm in a high and low wind penetrated market. Although increasing price spikes and volatility was reported in the literature......Energy trading policies, intermittency of wind farm output power, low marginal cost of the production, are the key factors that cause the wind farms to be effective on the electricity price. In this paper, the Danish electricity market is studied as a part of Nord Pool. Considering the completely...... fossil fuel free overview in Danish energy policies, and the currently great share of wind power (more than 100% for some hours) in supplying the load, it is an interesting benchmark for the future electricity markets. Negative prices, price spikes, and price volatility are considered as the main effects...

7 CFR 5.6 - Revision of the parity price of a commodity.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... continuing changes in demand and supply conditions which are reflected in market prices. Accordingly, only in... Administrative Law Judges or such other employee of the Department as the Secretary may designate for the purpose...

The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyler, Aidan [European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

2009-11-15

Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyler, Aidan

2009-01-01

Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

The transitory and permanent volatility of oil prices: What implications are there for the US industrial production?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher; Bashar, Omar H.M.N.; Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production (IPI). ► The transitory component of the oil price volatility has an adverse impact on the US IPI. ► The transitory oil price volatility induces higher volatility in CPI, commodity prices and IPI. -- Abstract: This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production by decomposing oil price volatility into permanent and transitory components. The decompositions provide important evidence on sources and asymmetric effects of oil price volatility. To estimate the component structure of volatility and to analyse the dynamic impacts of the volatility components, the study uses a threshold based CGARCH and VAR modelling over a period from 1980 to 2010 for the US economy. The CGARCH model estimates show significant asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the transitory oil price volatility. Dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the estimated VAR models reveal that there is a significant and prolonged dampening impact of increased transitory oil price volatility on industrial production. The results also suggest that shocks to transitory component induce increased volatility in the general price level and non-fuel commodity prices in the US. Variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that the transitory volatility is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production. These results provide additional insights on the sources of oil price uncertainty and point to the need to direct US energy policies towards stabilising short-term uncertainties in oil prices.

Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, Derek; Koc, Veli; Sapio, Alessandro

2015-01-01

In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive strategies. This paper examines the prices submitted to the British wholesale electricity market by four coal-fired plants, separately owned, approximately of the same age, size and efficiency, and located in the same transmission network zone. Due to the repetitive nature of the spot market, one would expect convergence in strategies. Yet, we find evidence of persistent price dispersion and heterogeneous strategies. We consider several propositions for these effects including market power, company size, forward commitments, vertical integration and the management of interrelated assets. - Highlights: • Time series models of offer prices from 4 companies, UK electricity spot market • Focus on coal-fired plants of similar size, efficiency, age, same network zone • Low, less volatile offers by small, not vertically integrated, only-coal company • Operational risks of nuclear plants in a portfolio imply finer tracking of PX prices • Market leadership from private information on the Anglo-French interconnector flows

A Cointegrated Regime-Switching Model Approach with Jumps Applied to Natural Gas Futures Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Leonhardt

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Energy commodities and their futures naturally show cointegrated price movements. However, there is empirical evidence that the prices of futures with different maturities might have, e.g., different jump behaviours in different market situations. Observing commodity futures over time, there is also evidence for different states of the underlying volatility of the futures. In this paper, we therefore allow for cointegration of the term structure within a multi-factor model, which includes seasonality, as well as joint and individual jumps in the price processes of futures with different maturities. The seasonality in this model is realized via a deterministic function, and the jumps are represented with thinned-out compound Poisson processes. The model also includes a regime-switching approach that is modelled through a Markov chain and extends the class of geometric models. We show how the model can be calibrated to empirical data and give some practical applications.

Intertemporal speculation, shortages and the political economy of price reform

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

1992-01-01

Price controls often focus on commodities that are storable and can thus be used in intertemporal speculation. Second, opposition to dismantling of controls is often based on claims of low supply response, and greatly bolstered if a strong supply response fails to materialise. This is especially

Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davoust, R.

2008-07-01

Our study, focused on gas prices in importing economies, describes wholesale prices and retail prices, their evolution for the last one or two decades, the economic mechanisms of price formation. While an international market for oil has developed thanks to moderate storage and transportation charges, these costs are much higher in the case of natural gas, which involves that this energy is still traded inside continental markets. There are three regional gas markets around the world: North America (the United States, importing mainly from Canada and Mexico), Europe (importing mainly from Russia, Algeria and Norway) and Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and India, importing mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia). A market for gas has also developed in South America, but it will not be covered by our paper. In Europe and the US, due to large domestic resources and strong grids, natural gas is purchased mostly through pipelines. In Northeast Asia, there is a lack of such infrastructures, so imported gas takes mainly the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped on maritime tankers. Currently, the LNG market is divided into two zones: the Atlantic Basin (Europe and US) and the Pacific Basin (Asia and the Western Coast of America). For the past few years, the Middle East and Africa have tended to be crucial suppliers for both LNG zones. Gas price formation varies deeply between regional markets, depending on several structural factors (regulation, contracting practises, existence of a spot market, liquidity, share of imports). Empirically, the degree of market opening (which corresponds to the seniority in the liberalization process) seems to be the primary determinant of pricing patterns. North America has the most liberalized and well-performing natural gas industry in the world. Gas pricing is highly competitive and is based on supply/demand balances. Spot and futures markets are developed. The British gas sector is also deregulated and thus follows a

Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davoust, R.

2008-01-01

Our study, focused on gas prices in importing economies, describes wholesale prices and retail prices, their evolution for the last one or two decades, the economic mechanisms of price formation. While an international market for oil has developed thanks to moderate storage and transportation charges, these costs are much higher in the case of natural gas, which involves that this energy is still traded inside continental markets. There are three regional gas markets around the world: North America (the United States, importing mainly from Canada and Mexico), Europe (importing mainly from Russia, Algeria and Norway) and Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and India, importing mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia). A market for gas has also developed in South America, but it will not be covered by our paper. In Europe and the US, due to large domestic resources and strong grids, natural gas is purchased mostly through pipelines. In Northeast Asia, there is a lack of such infrastructures, so imported gas takes mainly the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped on maritime tankers. Currently, the LNG market is divided into two zones: the Atlantic Basin (Europe and US) and the Pacific Basin (Asia and the Western Coast of America). For the past few years, the Middle East and Africa have tended to be crucial suppliers for both LNG zones. Gas price formation varies deeply between regional markets, depending on several structural factors (regulation, contracting practises, existence of a spot market, liquidity, share of imports). Empirically, the degree of market opening (which corresponds to the seniority in the liberalization process) seems to be the primary determinant of pricing patterns. North America has the most liberalized and well-performing natural gas industry in the world. Gas pricing is highly competitive and is based on supply/demand balances. Spot and futures markets are developed. The British gas sector is also deregulated and thus follows a

Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

Science.gov (United States)

Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

2015-02-01

Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris V. Mednikov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

Military and Private Sector Commodity Outlets: A Retail Price Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

1985-02-01

89 6. Del Monte Bananas, 1 lb. .34 .49 7. Sunkist Oranges , 1 lb. .37 .56 8. Minute Maid Frozen Lemon Juice, 6 fl. oz. .25 .41 9. Red Delicious Apples...continued Prices Iter Commissary Safeway 47. Marlboro Cigarettes, Carton 5.28 7.99 48. Carnation Evaporated Milk, Canned, 13 fl. oz. .46 .47 49. Gerber...1 lb. .90 1.29 80. Jimmy Dean Pork Sausage, 16 oz. 1.53 2.49 81. Minute Maid Frozen Orange Juice, 12 f!. oz. .97 .99 TOTAL $114.70 $152.23 1. Sale

Export Margins, Price and Quantity of Belarus’s Export Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Otamurodov Shavkat

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the sources of Belarus’s export growth and decomposes export growth into extensive and intensive margins. This study also aims to determine export margins for intermediate and final goods and to determine the price and quantity components of the intensive export margin. In order to achieve the desired objectives, we use two methods for decomposing export growth, the count method and the export shares method. We analyse Belarus's export growth using export data at the HS-6 digit level for the 2004-2014 period. Our results show that Belarus's exports grew mainly due to growth in the price margin during the studied period 2004-2014. However, the extensive margin was important in export growth to some extent. Comparing the growth rate across final and intermediate goods reveals that although the share of final products in Belarus’s exports is not very big (18.9% in 2014, the average annual growth in exports of final products is higher than that of intermediate goods. Our investigation also shows that Belarus produces a wide range of commodities, but the share of the most of these commodities is not large; its exports depend on a restricted range of commodities. Moreover, most of the commodities are exported to Russia and Ukraine. Our results give us reason to assume that finding new markets for their new products is one of the main challenges for developing countries wishing to increase their exports by an extensive margin. This has important implications for how policy makers promote the trade and diversification of exports.

Price competition and equilibrium analysis in multiple hybrid channel supply chain

Science.gov (United States)

Kuang, Guihua; Wang, Aihu; Sha, Jin

2017-06-01

The amazing boom of Internet and logistics industry prompts more and more enterprises to sell commodity through multiple channels. Such market conditions make the participants of multiple hybrid channel supply chain compete each other in traditional and direct channel at the same time. This paper builds a two-echelon supply chain model with a single manufacturer and a single retailer who both can choose different channel or channel combination for their own sales, then, discusses the price competition and calculates the equilibrium price under different sales channel selection combinations. Our analysis shows that no matter the manufacturer and retailer choose same or different channel price to compete, the equilibrium price does not necessarily exist the equilibrium price in the multiple hybrid channel supply chain and wholesale price change is not always able to coordinate supply chain completely. We also present the sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of equilibrium price and coordination wholesale price.

Commodities, energy and environmental finance

CERN Document Server

Ludkovski, Michael; Sircar, Ronnie

2015-01-01

This volume is a collection of chapters covering the latest developments in applications of financial mathematics and statistics to topics in energy, commodity financial markets and environmental economics. The research presented is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the Fields Institute Focus Program on Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance in August 2013. The authors include applied mathematicians, economists and industry practitioners, providing for a multi-disciplinary spectrum of perspectives on the subject. The volume consists of four sections: Electricity Markets; Real Options; Trading in Commodity Markets; and Oligopolistic Models for Energy Production. Taken together, the chapters give a comprehensive summary of the current state of the art in quantitative analysis of commodities and energy finance. The topics covered include structural models of electricity markets, financialization of commodities, valuation of commodity real options, game-theory analysis of ...

Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ganebnykh Elena

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia. A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers’ expectations of an “ideal facility”.

Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

Science.gov (United States)

Ganebnykh, Elena; Burtseva, Tatyana; Gurova, Ekaterina; Polyakova, Irina

2018-03-01

The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia). A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers' expectations of an "ideal facility".

Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Pujiati

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Pujiati

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs  extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-11-01

This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lya Aklimawati

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani

2017-05-01

Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.

Oil price, biofuels and food supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

2011-01-01

The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels. - Highlights: ► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply. ► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline. ► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do. ► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise. ► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.

7 CFR 250.57 - Commodity schools.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity schools. 250.57 Section 250.57 Agriculture... TERRITORIES AND POSSESSIONS AND AREAS UNDER ITS JURISDICTION National School Lunch Program (NSLP) and Other Child Nutrition Programs § 250.57 Commodity schools. (a) Categorization of commodity schools. Commodity...

Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martha Gutiérrez

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Gold is a commodity that is seen as a safe haven when a financial crisis strikes, but when stock markets are prosperous, these are more attractive investment alternatives, and so the gold cycle goes on and on. The DJIA/GF (Dow Jones Industrial Average and Gold Fix ratio is chosen to establish the evolution of gold prices in relation to the NYSE. This paper has two goals: to prove that the DJIA/GF ratio is strongly cyclical by using Fourier analysis and to set a predictive neural networks model to forecast the behavior of this ratio during 2011-2020. To this end, business cycle events like the Great Depression along with the 1970s crisis, and the 1950s boom along with the world economic recovery of the 1990s are contrasted in light of the mentioned ratio. Gold prices are found to evolve cyclically with a dominant period of 37 years and are mainly affected by energy prices, financial markets and macroeconomic indicators.

A Note on R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Schumacher, Dieter; Lucke, Dorothea

2005-01-01

This note explores the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and the R&D intensity of the product. We introduce the concept of R&D intensity into a standard Dixit-Stiglitz/Krugman-type setting. R&D activity is treated as a fixed cost of production. Within this framework, sectors...... with a higher R&D intensity show a lower price elasticity of demand. This proposition is confirmed by an empirical investigation of export demand for manufactured goods from major industrialised countries. Consequently, real exchange rate changes have an impact on the commodity structure of exports....

Price trends and income inequalities: will Sub-Saharan-Africa reduce the gap?

OpenAIRE

Caracciolo, Francesco; Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano

2012-01-01

During the past decade, commodities prices have risen substantially and the trend is likely to persist as attested by recent OECD-FAO projections. The recent debate has not reached a clear consensus on the effects of this trend on poverty and income inequality in LDCs, thus complicating the policy planning process. Our paper aims at analyzing the likely welfare and income inequality impacts of food price trends in three Sub-Saharan countries, namely Tanzania, Ghana and Ethiopia. Moreover, we ...

UNCTAD commodity yearbook 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

The Commodity Yearbook is intended to provide disaggregated data at the world, regional and country levels for trade and consumption in selected agricultural primary commodities and minerals, ores and metals. Production series have been included for the latter group of commodities, since comprehensive diaggregated data are unavailable elsewhere. Basic tables have been designed, from both the commodity and the country point of view, to serve as background material to international commodity discussions and negotiations in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The classification of countries and territories by region has been adopted for statistical convenience only, and follows that employed by the Statistical Office of the United Nations. Four main regions are defined: Developed market economy countries, Countries of Eastern Europe, Socialist countries of Asia and Developing countries and territories. For developed and developing countries and territories, the main regions have been further subdivided (e.g., EEC, EFTA, Africa, etc.) to provide additional information. The exact composition of each region is shown in section V of the general notes

29 CFR 780.114 - Wild commodities.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.114 Wild commodities. Employees engaged in the gathering or harvesting of wild commodities such as mosses, wild rice, burls and laurel plants, the trapping of wild... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Wild commodities. 780.114 Section 780.114 Labor Regulations...

Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities: A conjoint study of purchase of vegetable oils in the mayonnaise and margarine industries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bech-Larsen, Tino; Skytte, Hans

Executive summary The purpose of this working paper is to study whether current market and technological developments in the vegetable oil industry can be used as the outset for a price and/or quality based segmentation of the major industrial markets for this product. More specifically we want...... that the application of concepts from ind buying behaviour to the study of commodity buying, such as the procurement of vegetable oil, is an appropriate outset, when trying to segment the market for such commodities. The article begins with a brief discussion of why food commodity markets should be segmented......, then follows current developments in the demand and technology conditions on the market for vegetable oil. Later we discuss how concepts from industrial buying behaviour can add to the understanding of commodity buying and segmentati Following this a conjoint model of vegetable oil procurement in the vegetable...

Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

Science.gov (United States)

Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

2011-11-01

The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Modeling the Impact and Cost of

ASPECTS OF REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH DYNAMIC PRICES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela\tENACHESCU

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents aspects regarding the dynamics of prices of petroleum products: gasoline and diesel in Romania in the period 2003(2007-2014. Both focus on relationship-price raw material and finished product by the impact of market prices. Given that the price of fuel is a key factor in economic development but also in the living of population, this paper has proposed to analyze some aspects of the dynamics of prices of petroleum products in correlation with commodity prices in a competitive market in 2003 -2014. In the analized period, price of oil barrel has a dynamics substantially influenced by the global political turbulences but also by lower oil demand due to consumption reduction, especially lately. Increases and decreases were abrupt and unpredictable in the early years of the first decade of the XXI century. Political crises in the Middle East, the economic crisis started in 2007 and especially the crisis in Ukraine and policies adopted by the EU and the US have led to extremely large fluctuations in oil prices from one period to another . This dynamic will only cover the price of petroleum products namely gazoline and diesel for vehicles.

Competitive electricity markets around the world: approaches to price risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson, G.S.

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on wholesale electricity markets, and traces the histories of the US and UK power industries. Risk management in the new electricity market is examined covering price risk, location basis risk, volume risk, and margin and cross-commodity risk. Specific competitive market systems that have been implemented around the world including mandatory pools, voluntary pools, and bilateral markets are discussed. Panels describing the functions of ancillary services, electricity price volatility, and the problems of capacity payments and the UK pool are presented

Trends in prices to commercial energy consumers in the competitive Texas electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zarnikau, Jay; Fox, Marilyn; Smolen, Paul

2007-01-01

To date, the price of electricity to commercial or business energy consumers has generally increased at greater rates in the areas of Texas where retail competition has been introduced than in areas that do not enjoy competition. Trends in commercial competitive prices have largely mirrored trends in residential prices. Market restructuring has tended to increase the sensitivity of retail electricity prices to changes in the price of natural gas, the marginal fuel used for generation in Texas. Consequently, the rapid increases in the commodity price of natural gas following restructuring led to increases in competitive electric rates which exceeded the increases in areas not exposed to restructuring, where the fuel component of electric rates tend to reflect a weighted average of the utilities' fuel costs. There is some evidence that pricing behavior by competitive retailers changed when the retailers affiliated with the incumbent utilities were permitted some pricing flexibility, resulting in a reduction in prices. (author)

Grain price spikes and beggar-thy-neighbor policy responses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Anderson, Kym

When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with that terms of trade change. Several recent analyses...... have assessed the extent to which those policies contributed to the 2006-08 international price rise, but only by focusing on one commodity or using a back-of-the envelope (BOTE) method. This paper provides a more-comprehensive analysis using a global economy-wide model that is able to take account...... of the interactions between markets for farm products that are closely related in production and/or consumption, and able to estimate the impacts of those insulating policies on grain prices and on the grain trade and economic welfare of the world’s various countries. Our results support the conclusion from earlier...

EFICIÊNCIA DOS MERCADOS FUTUROS DE COMMODITIES AGRÍCOLAS APLICANDO-SE O TESTE DE COINTEGRAÇÃO./ EFFICIENCY OF THE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FUTURES MARKET BY APPLYING THE COINTEGRATION TEST.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Harry Harzer

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Este artigo tem o objetivo de testar a forma fraca de eficiência do mercado futuro brasileiro dacommoditie agrícola café arábica, usando a técnica de cointegração a fim de verificar se os preços futuroscorrentes são estimadores não viesados dos preços à vista esperados para o futuro. Para isso, utiliza asséries históricas de janeiro de 2005 a maio de 2011 dos preços futuros, que foram coletados na Bolsa deMercadorias e Futuros – BM&F, e os preços à vista calculados pelo CEPEA/ESALQ/USP. As métricas utilizadassão os testes ADF de Dickey e Fuller para detectar a presença de raiz unitária e o teste de cointegraçãode Johansen para verificar a existência de um relacionamento de longo prazo. Os resultados indicaram anão estacionariedade das séries de preços e a presença de cointegração. Porém, o teste dos parâmetrosα = 0 e β = 1 da regressão que comprovam a eficiência fraca e não viés encontraram indícios estatísticosde não eficiência de mercado, bem como da presença de um viés indicando a existência de um prêmioassociado ao risco./ This article aims at testing the weak form of efficiency of the commodity futures market in Arabicacoffee farming using the cointegration technique in order to check if the current futures prices arebiased estimators of spot prices expected for the future. Thereto it uses the futures prices time seriesfrom January 2005 to May 2011, which were collected in the Commodities and Futures Exchange - BM &F and spot prices, calculated by CEPEA / ESALQ / USP. Dickey and Fuller’s ADF tests are the metrics usedto detect the presence of unit root and Johansen’s cointegration test is used to verify the existence ofa long term relationship. The results indicated the non-stationarity of price series besides the presenceof cointegration. However, regression parameters testing α = 0 e β = 1 proves that weak efficiency andnon-biased found statistical evidence of non-market efficiency

Gas and LNG pricing and trading hub in East Asia: An introduction

OpenAIRE

Shi, Xunpeng

2017-01-01

This paper summarizes the four papers in the special issues on ‘Gas and LNG pricing and trading hub in East Asia’. The papers examine lessons and experience from European hub development, other commodity, the Japanese history on developing of futures markets and inter-fuel substitution in East Asia. The papers finds that liquid futures market is the key to formulate benchmark prices while a well-developed spot market is the foundation; political will and strong leadership are required to over...

Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

Science.gov (United States)

Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

2015-02-01

Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

Space and commodity-based society

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gvozden Vladimir

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The space is privileged in the commodity-based society. It is well known that the economic space in the 19th and 20th centuries rapidly managed to subordinate all other areas 'conveying and instilling in them their own meanings and goals' (G. Milatović. A new form of space that qualifies commodity society was created, marked by dualities: openness-closeness, private-public, sameness-difference. This paper is an attempt to criticize the usual analysis of the categories of commodity-space, linked to the ambivalent role of the state as a guarantor of the functioning of the commodity-based society, as well as its controlling instance. The increasing delocalisation of the political changes the nature of the space in the commodity-based society. Privileged areas are produced that create an illusion of protection of consumers (shopping malls, gated communities, theme parks, video surveillance, while at the same time social differentiation and identification are produced through the symbolic order of commodities and a sense of inclusion or exclusion from that order. At the same time, the examples of tourism and selling places demonstrate that such a commodity-space unusually easy reconciles sameness and difference. It entails uniformity to help achieve the fluctuation of goods, while insisting on the local as different, especially in terms of the role of particularity in the global trade.

Western Canada: high prices, high activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savidant, S

2000-01-01

The forces responsible for the high drilling and exploration activity in Western Canada (recent high prices, excess pipeline capacity, and the promise of as yet undiscovered natural gas resources) are discussed. Supply and demand signposts, among them weather impacts, political response by governments, the high demand for rigs and services, the intense competition for land, the scarcity of qualified human resources, are reviewed/. The geological potential of Western Canada, the implications of falling average pool sizes, the industry's ability to catch up to increasing declines, are explored. The disappearance of easy large discoveries, rising development costs involved in smaller, more complex hence more expensive pools are assessed and the Canadian equity and capital markets are reviewed. The predicted likely outcome of all the above factors is fewer players, increasing expectation of higher returns, and more discipline among the remaining players

Il livello dei prezzi e la politica monetaria (The Price Level and Monetary Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles P. Kindleberger

2002-06-01

Full Text Available Most central banks are required or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is what index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

DOES FEAR (VIX INDEX INCITE VOLATILITY IN FOOD PRICES?

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Gökhan Çınar

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Globally, the volatility trend in food prices has continued to increase. Different data give the impression that this volatility may be caused by the international finance markets’ propagation effect. For this reason, the study focused on the VIX (fear index that is used to measure the movement in Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The main objective of the study is to analyze the degree of volatility between the VIX index and the wheat market. The research is comprised of monthly data obtained from year 2000 to 2015. The study employs the BEKK GARCH method. The findings show that the variance shocks in the fear index damage food prices. The results may be useful to policy makers in researching the causes of changes in the prices of food commodity and taking necessary measures.

Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, Kyung Soo; Bae, Jeong Hwan

2011-01-01

This study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the US. Between 2007 and 2008, the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply, reflecting the rise in international oil prices. These dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy. Employing a structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR), we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn, which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the US. The results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline. Consequently, policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co-products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price. - Research highlights: → World economy experienced 'dual shocks', which were caused by skyrocketed oil prices and grain prices between 2007 and 2008. → Sharp increases in ethanol production in response to high oil prices were considered as a major driving force to 'ag-flation' in the United States. → Applying a time series econometric tool, called the 'structural vector auto-regression model', we evaluated relationship between ethanol production and corn prices. → The result shows that ethanol production affects corn prices in the short run, while corn prices are lowered as other corn demands (feed for livestock or export demand) decline in the long run.

Cigarette price variation around high schools: evidence from Washington DC.

Science.gov (United States)

Cantrell, Jennifer; Ganz, Ollie; Anesetti-Rothermel, Andrew; Harrell, Paul; Kreslake, Jennifer M; Xiao, Haijun; Pearson, Jennifer L; Vallone, Donna; Kirchner, Thomas R

2015-01-01

This study examines lowest cigarette prices in all tobacco retail outlets in Washington D.C. (n=750) in relation to the type and number of high schools nearby, controlling for confounders. The lowest overall and Newport menthol prices were significantly lower at outlets near public non-charter and charter schools compared with outlets near private schools. Given higher smoking prevalence and more price-sensitive youth subgroups in U.S. public schools, exposure to low prices may contribute to tobacco-related health disparities in minority and low-income populations. Tobacco taxes combined with policies to minimize the increasing use of price as a marketing tool are critical. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports.

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Jennifer J Swenson

Full Text Available Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr. We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009 is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R(2 = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003-2009. Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year. Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports.

Science.gov (United States)

Swenson, Jennifer J; Carter, Catherine E; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Delgado, Cesar I

2011-04-19

Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R(2) = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003-2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak

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Nikolay Khabarov

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP. We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels.

Viewpoint On the Climate Change Effects of High Oil Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vielle, M.; Viguier, L.

2005-11-01

Some commentators claim that the oil market has achieved within a few months what international bureaucrats have struggled to obtain in a decade of international climate negotiations. The fallacy of the oil price argument is that substitutions and income effects that would result from higher oil prices are not considered. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that high oil prices cannot serve as substitutes for effective climate policies.

Modeling commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series

Science.gov (United States)

Hisham, Azie Farhani Badrol; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2017-08-01

In order for Islamic finance to remain competitive as the conventional, there needs a new development of Islamic compliance product such as Islamic derivative that can be used to manage the risk. However, under syariah principles and regulations, all financial instruments must not be conflicting with five syariah elements which are riba (interest paid), rishwah (corruption), gharar (uncertainty or unnecessary risk), maysir (speculation or gambling) and jahl (taking advantage of the counterparty's ignorance). This study has proposed a traditional Islamic contract namely salam that can be built as an Islamic derivative product. Although a lot of studies has been done on discussing and proposing the implementation of salam contract as the Islamic product however they are more into qualitative and law issues. Since there is lack of quantitative study of salam contract being developed, this study introduces mathematical models that can value the appropriate salam price for a commodity salam contract between two parties. In modeling the commodity salam contract, this study has modified the existing conventional derivative model and come out with some adjustments to comply with syariah rules and regulations. The cost of carry model has been chosen as the foundation to develop the commodity salam model between two parties for discrete and continuous time series. However, the conventional time value of money results from the concept of interest that is prohibited in Islam. Therefore, this study has adopted the idea of Islamic time value of money which is known as the positive time preference, in modeling the commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series.

Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanachote Boonvorachote

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wanner, Markus, E-mail: markus.wanner@mrm.uni-augsburg.de; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt; Rathgeber, Andreas [University of Augsburg, Institute for Materials Resource Management (Germany)

2015-06-15

The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% of all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events.

Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wanner, Markus; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt; Rathgeber, Andreas

2015-01-01

The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% of all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events

Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM Approach

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Lya Aklimawati

2013-12-01

Full Text Available High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2 analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables  on cocoa prices.  This research  was  carried out by  analyzing  annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM  approach was  used  to  estimate the  econometric  model  of  cocoa  price.The  estimation  results  indicated  that  cocoa  price  was  significantly  affected  by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product,  world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1,  while other  variables  were  inelastic  (E  <1.  Variables  that  affecting  cocoa  pricesin  short  run  equilibrium  were  exchange  rate  IDR-USD,  world  gross  domestic product,  world  inflation,  world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock. The  analysis  results  showed  that  world  gross  domestic  product,  world  cocoa consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1  to  cocoa  prices  in short-term.  Whereas,  the  response  of  cocoa  prices  was  inelastic  to  change  of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price

Founding Digital Currency on Imprecise Commodity

OpenAIRE

Yuan, Zimu; Xu, Zhiwei

2015-01-01

Current digital currency schemes provide instantaneous exchange on precise commodity, in which "precise" means a buyer can possibly verify the function of the commodity without error. However, imprecise commodities, e.g. statistical data, with error existing are abundant in digital world. Existing digital currency schemes do not offer a mechanism to help the buyer for payment decision on precision of commodity, which may lead the buyer to a dilemma between having to buy and being unconfident....

Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?; Hausse du prix de l'energie, hausse des prix agricoles: quelles relations et implications a moyen et long terme?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Voituriez, T.

2009-07-01

We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

1993-01-01

Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun; Kristiansen, Tarjei; Ilic, Marija D.

2010-01-01

We analyze 11 years of historical spot- and futures prices from the hydro-dominated Nord Pool electricity market. We find that futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. The average convenience yield is therefore negative, but varies by season and depends on the storage levels in hydro reservoirs. The average realized return on holding a long position in the futures market is also negative. The negative convenience yield and risk premium contrast empirical findings in most other commodity markets. We argue that differences between the supply and demand sides in terms of risk preferences and the ability to take advantage of short-term price variations can contribute to explain the observed relationship between spot- and futures prices. In addition, our analysis shows that the relationship between spot and futures prices is clearly linked to the physical state of the system, such as hydro inflow, reservoir levels, and demand. (author)

General Equilibrium in a Segmented Market Economy with Convex Transaction Cost: Existence, Efficiency, Commodity and Fiat Money

OpenAIRE

Starr, Ross M.

2002-01-01

This study derives the monetary structure of transactions, the use of commodity or fiat money, endogenously from transaction costs in a segmented market general equilibrium model. Market segmentation means there are separate budget constraints for each transaction: budgets balance in each transaction separately. Transaction costs imply differing bid and ask (selling and buying) prices. The most liquid instruments are those with the lowest proportionate bid/ask spread in equilibrium. Exist...

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Logistics, Commodities, and Waste Management Requirements for Scale-Up of Services

Science.gov (United States)

Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

2011-01-01

Background The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. Methods and Findings This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Conclusions Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in “Voluntary Medical

Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dianna Edgil

2011-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. CONCLUSIONS: Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Pricing Strategy in Online Retailing Marketplaces of Homogeneous Goods: Should High Reputation Seller Charge More?

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yuewen; Wei, Kwok Kee; Chen, Huaping

There are two conflicting streams of research findings on pricing strategy: one is high reputation sellers should charge price premium, while the other is high reputation sellers should charge relatively low price. Motivated by this confliction, this study examines pricing strategy in online retailing marketplace of homogeneous goods. We conduct an empirical study using data collected from a dominant online retailing marketplace in China. Our research results indicate that, in online retailing marketplace of homogeneous goods, high reputation sellers should charge relatively low price, because the consumers of high reputation sellers are more price sensitive than the consumers of low reputation sellers.

Emergence of Commodity Derivatives as Defensive Instrument in Portfolio Risk Hedging: A Case of Indian Commodity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singhal Shelly

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically examines whether commodity derivatives can be used as an alternative investment asset in India where commodity markets are at emerging state and provides the same diversification benefit as they provide in developed commodity markets. In India only commodity futures are prevalent so various commodity indices representing various sectors has been used in the study. Diversification aspect of commodity derivatives has been tested initially by using correlation analysis. Compounded Daily Growth rate and Relative Standard deviation has been used as a measure of calculating risk and return of daily data of SENSEX, BOND and four Commodity Indices (MCX Comdex, MCX AGRI, MCX Metal, MCX Energy. Markowitz Efficient Frontier theory has been used to calculate portfolio risk return and Sharpe risk adjusted ratio has been used to evaluate the various portfolios. Optimal portfolio has been obtained for the combination of equity, bond and commodity and overall results of the study indicate that an investor who is risk averse will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Energy whereas an investor who gets utility by taking more risk for more returns will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Metal. Investor having inclination towards moderate risk return would tend to invest in MCX AGRI along with SENSEX and BOND.

17 CFR 33.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF DOMESTIC EXCHANGE-TRADED COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 33.3 Unlawful commodity option... of, or maintain a position in, any commodity option transaction subject to the provisions of this...

DEVELOPMENT OF TIGHT OIL RESOURCES IN USA: PROFITABILITY OF EXPLOITATION AND EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN VOLATILE OIL PRICE ENVIRONMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristina Strpić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Large scale development of tight oil resources in US started after 2010. with following five-year period of favorable steady increase in crude oil price. During this relatively short expansion cycle, operating and capital expenses changed drastically for main tight oil plays due to technological improvements in both well drilling and completion, expansion of service sector as well as loose government monetary policy which allowed favorable financing. This paper analyzed trends in costs during expansion period, as well as correlation of oil price to number of operating rigs and production quotas. After 2008/2009. world financial crisis economy recovery in US was somewhat sluggish and it caused extreme volatile environment in both equity and commodity markets. In such volatile environment intra-day crude oil prices, as well as other commodities and equities, show significant reaction to monthly published macroeconomic indicator reports, which give better overviews of trends in economic recovery. Prior to announcement, these reports always have forecasted value determined by consensus among market analysts. Therefore, any positive or negative surprise in real value tends to influence price of oil. This paper investigated influence of such macroeconomic reports to closing intraday oil price, as well as effect of other important daily market indices. Analysis showed that only Producer Price Index (PPI, among other indicators, has statistical significance of affecting intraday closing oil price.

ANALYSIS OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT FLUCTUATIONS AND ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION IN 2005- 2014. RESERVES FOR DECREASING ELECTRIC POWER PRICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suslov N. I.

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this work we considered the trajectories of change in indicators characterizing the status of economics and power industry: gross regional product, electric power consumption, industrial production, energy prices and costs of delivering electric power to consumers in Russian regions for the last 10 years. Low global commodity prices and sanctions led to a sharp decrease of equipment import, which resulted in an acute problem of import substitution. The level of tariffs of natural monopolies is of great importance for industrial development. The goal of this work was to analyze possibilities for reducing electric power prices by changing the institutional and economic conditions of management. We analyzed not only the official information from Rosstat, but also government regulations, figures given in the official government publication «The Rossiyskaya Gazeta» as well as articles and interviews on economic problems of the electric power industry over the recent years published in «The Kommersant» newspaper. High tariffs of network marketing companies for electric energy transmission, state regulation of heating prices, financing the construction of new capacities by charging the payment in power provision contracts, high price of electric power of nuclear power plants lead to an annual increase in electric power prices for end users. In this work we considered possible solutions to limit the growth of electric power prices.

Price Comovement Between Biodiesel and Natural Gas

OpenAIRE

Janda, Karel; Kourilek, Jakub

2016-01-01

We study relationship between biodiesel, as a most important biofuel in the EU, relevant feedstock commodities and fossil fuels. Our main interest is to capture relationship between biodiesel and natural gas. They are both used either directly as a fuel or indirectly in form of additives in transport. Therefore, our purpose is to �nd price linkage between biofuel and natural gas to support or reject the claim that they compete as alternative fuels and potential substitutes. The estimated p...

Poverty and growth impacts of high oil prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naranpanawa, Athula; Bandara, Jayatilleke S.

2012-01-01

The sharp rise in oil and food prices in 2007 and 2008 caused negative impacts on poverty and economic growth in many oil and food importing developing countries. Some analysts believe that these countries are under stress again due to a rise in crude oil prices, to a two-and-a-half year high in March 2011, which has also been partly responsible for higher food prices in recent months. However, there is a limited body of empirical evidence available from developing countries on the impact of high oil prices on growth in general and household poverty in particular. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework to explore the growth and poverty impacts of high oil prices. The results suggest that urban low income households are the group most adversely affected by high global oil prices, followed by low income rural households. In contrast, estate low income households are the least affected out of all low income households. The energy intensive manufacturing sector and services sector are affected most compared to the agricultural sector. - Highlights: ► Using a general equilibrium model we find poverty and oil price link for Sri Lanka. ► Urban low income households are the group most adversely affected. ► Energy intensive manufacturing and services sectors are affected most.

ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Fakari Sardehae

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Poultry is an important commodity for household consumption. In recent years, price fluctuation for this commodity has caused an uncertain condition for consumers and poultry prices over the past two years has changed a lot. This has caused many changes and uncertainty in a purchase decision. Analysis of changes and volatility modeling can be a great help to predict the poultry prices and great facilities in creating appropriate policies in future. The prices of staples such as poultry consumption basket is highly variable because much of the protein is necessary for daily energy are supplied in this way to households. So when the price of chicken which has been changed over the past two years and has always been in the press and media attention, has been selected in this study. Fluctuations in price of chicken have caused a surge in consumer expectations and contributed in volatility of chicken price. Materials and Methods: In this study ARCH models have been used for daily price of poultry of Iran’s market and this was investigated for2012-13and2013-14.BecauseARCH models can model the impact of heterogeneous variance over time in time series data then the variance of time series, which is limited in time, has no time limit. Many time series are more complex than a linear patterns, thus, non-linear models are of particular importance in Economic Sciences and Econometrics. Accordingly, Engle presented that ARCH model can model the heterogeneous variance components of the error term. That is a disturbing element and modeling can help to examine and explore the relationship between the components can be found disturbing. Basically, these models fit the data to a cluster and periodic oscillations with high volatility and low volatility associated with the period. In this study, we used several different models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH, and TGARCH. The distribution of the error term of the model also followt-student distribution

Oil price reduction impacts on the Iranian economy

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Abdollah Mahmoodi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available economy. In order to simulate this shock, the global trade analysis project (GTAP model with its data done by using. In the new created data aggregation, oil exporting in Iran and the rest of the world countries as economic new regions, ten new economic sectors have been created, among which the oil is introduced as one sector as well as five endowments. The standard economic closure was changed, and decline in world oil price was simulated in model as a policy shock. The results show that oil export revenue and the mineral commodity export earnings will decrease, but other production sectors’ exports will increase. The trade balance of Iran will be affected negatively and strongly. Also, oil and other services production decreased. In the production sectors’ market, the demand for labor, natural resources, and investment decreased dramatically, and the demand for land increased. Using equivalent variation (EV, changes in Iran’s welfare is high negative. Finally, deflation, reduction in value and quantity of GDP and changes in consumption combination from public to private sector are the other economic impacts of reduction in oil price on Iran’s economic. It is suggested that future studies are done using dynamic models and up-to-date data. In addition, policy makers need to rebound internationally and within OPEC to raise oil prices.

Effective Drinking Water Pricing, A Case Study of Arak City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyyedhosein Sajjadifar

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Drinking water pricing is a major challenge facing the water and wastewater industry in Iran where decisions of water pricing are essentially based on social, legal, administrative, and financial criteria with only a slight heed, if any, paid to economic considerations. Generally speaking, the price of water in Iran reflects a percentage fraction of the costs of water production and distribution while an economterically efficient model of water pricing is absent. This failure to account for economic considerations in water pricing has turned water into a commodity supplied either at a very low price or free of charge in cases. The current situation of water scarcity which is complicated by a multitude of environmental problems can only be ascribed to the present water pricing policies. It is, therefore, essential for the water sector to employ economic tools, adopt relevant approaches, and execute optimized strategic policies in an attempt to reduce the negative impacts of the imminent water crisis. Based on the above considerations, the present study was designed to investigate and review optimal water pricing policies at Arak Water and Wastewater Authority which functions as a business offering both domestic and non-domestic water services. The cost function considered is a translog one and the seemingly unrelated regressions are used for estimation. Results show that the domestic water price levied from customers covers only 33% of the total production and delivery costs such that Arak Water & Wastewater Authority practices the economy of scale in producing both domestic and non-domestic water. Considering the fact that pricing based on the marginal cost under the conditions of economy of scale leads to financial losses for Arak W&W Authority, it seems appropriate to calculate the second best price as suggested by Frank Ramsey. Thus, the marginal cost was combined with the price elasticity for the domestic water demand in the different

Availability and Price of High Quality Day Care and Female Employment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Marianne

In this paper I analyse to what degree availability and price of high quality publicly subsidised childcare affects female employment for women living in couples following maternity leave. The results show that unrestricted access to day care has a significantly positive effct on female employment.......The price effect is significantly negative: An increase in the price of child care of C=1 will decrease the female employment with 0.08% corresponding to a price elasticity of −0.17. This effect prevails during the first 12 months after childbirth....

Crude oil prices : how high, how much harm?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levesque, M.; Alexander, C.

2002-01-01

This paper discussed the issue of crude oil prices and the economy. Crude oil prices are on the rise due to the recent events in the Middle East. In early April, West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to nearly US$28 a barrel. Most of the increase reflects the expectation of stronger world oil demand combined with supply constraints on the part of OPEC. Although there has been some concern expressed that rising oil prices may hinder economic recovery, the authors of this report do not see evidence that rising oil prices would throw economic recovery off course, arguing that the current spike will be short-lived. They stated that even under a worse-case scenario where prices remain inflated, there is little reason to fear for the health of the Canadian economy. OPEC is expected to increase its low production quotas in June. In addition, non-OPEC nations (Russia in particular) are expected to increase oil production in the coming months. The authors also indicated that it is unlikely that conflict in the West Bank will disrupt oil supply because Israel is not an oil-exporting nation. However, oil supply could be affected if other Arab nations were drawn into the issue. It was also noted that military action against Iraq would increase oil prices, possibly as high as US$40 a barrel, but the full extent of this hike in price will probably be unsustainable. In addition, the authors emphasized that the increase in energy costs would not be enough to seriously jeopardize the economic recovery in the United States. As for Canada, it is estimated that a US$10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices would have a small, but positive impact on Canadian GDP because in contrast to the United States, Canada produces much more energy than it consumers. In 2001, Canada ran a trade surplus of $2.8 billion. The report ended by stating that although higher oil prices could add a full percentage point to headline inflation by the end of the year, core inflation is likely to remain

Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes Revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munk, Knud Jørgen

Dixit's 1975 paper "Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes" constitutes a seminal contribution to the theory of tax reform analysis within a second-best general equilibrium framework. The present paper clarifies ambiguities with respect to normalisation which have led to misinterpretation of some...... of Dixit's analytical results. It proves that a marginal tax reform starting from a proportional tax system will improve social welfare if it increases the supply of labour, whatever the rule of normalisation adopted, and shows that this result provides the key to understanding what determines the optimal...... commodities the insight that the optimal tax system is determined as a trade-off between two objectives: 1) to encourage the supply of labour to the market, and 2), to limit the distortion of the pattern of consumption of produced commodities. This insight cannot be illustrated by simulation studies using...

Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009

Science.gov (United States)

,

2009-01-01

Each chapter of the 2009 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2008 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Because specific information concerning committed inventory was no longer available from the Defense Logistics Agency, National Defense Stockpile Center, that information, which was included in earlier Mineral Commodity Summaries publications, has been deleted from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009. National reserves and reserve base information for most mineral commodities found in this report, including those for the United States, are derived from a variety of sources. The ideal source of such information would be comprehensive evaluations that apply the same criteria to deposits in different geographic areas and report the results by country. In the absence of such evaluations, national reserves and reserve base estimates compiled by countries for selected mineral commodities are a primary source of national reserves and reserve base information. Lacking national assessment information by governments, sources such as academic articles, company reports, common business practice, presentations by company representatives, and trade journal articles, or a combination of these, serve as the basis for national reserves and reserve base information reported in the mineral commodity sections of this publication. A national estimate may be assembled from the following: historically reported

Influence of market factors on the pricing of exchange traded metals in the medium term

Science.gov (United States)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2017-06-01

On the basis of comparison of the influence of the stock exchange factors on the pricing of nonferrous metals for medium term with similar results for short term, it has been established that the main attention should be paid to the changes in the pricing environment on the metal market as a function of the prices of exchange traded metals. The situation on the market of energy carriers (hydrocarbons) and the European, American, and Asian stock exchanges can be based on parity and even significantly influence the variation of the metal prices. In the medium term, constructive development of metal trade should be reasonably promoted by changing the elasticity of supply with regard to prices for exchange traded metals and by applying the stock exchange factors that positively influence the pricing on commodity and stock markets.

Factors affecting forward pricing behaviour: implications of alternative regression model specifications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry Jordaan

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Price risk associated with maize production became a reason for concern in South Africa only after the deregulation of the agricultural commodities markets in the mid-1990s, when farmers became responsible for marketing their own crops. Although farmers can use, inter alia, the cash forward contracting and/or the derivatives market to manage price risk, few farmers actually participate in forward pricing. A similar reluctance to use forward pricing methods is also found internationally. A number of different model specifications have been used in previous research to model forward pricing behaviour which is based on the assumption that the same variables influence both the adoption and the quantity decision. This study compares the results from a model specification which models forward pricing behaviour in a single-decision framework with the results from modelling the quantity decision conditional to the adoption decision in a two-step approach. The results suggest that substantially more information is obtained by modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions rather than a single decision. Such information may be valuable in educational material compiled to educate farmers in the effective use of forward pricing methods in price risk management. Modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions  is thus a more effective means of modelling forward pricing behaviour than modelling it as a single decision.

Exhaustible natural resources, normal prices and intertemporal equilibrium

OpenAIRE

Parrinello, Sergio

2003-01-01

This paper proposes an extension of the classical theory of normal prices to an n-commodity economy with exhaustible natural resources. The central idea is developed by two analytical steps. Firstly, it is assumed that a given flow of an exhaustible resource in short supply is combined with the coexistence of two methods of production using that resource. Sraffa’s equations are reinterpreted by adopting the concept of effectual supply of natural resources and avoiding the assumption of perfec...

Idiosyncrasies in Australian petrol price behaviour: evidence of seasonalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, Jason D.; Lilian Ong; Izan, H.Y.

2000-01-01

It has been argued that there are certain idiosyncrasies in Australian petrol price behaviour. To the extent that these idiosyncrasies result in large magnitude differences in petrol prices, they may be exploited by consumers to significantly reduce their household expenditure on the product. Similarly, such seasonalities may influence retailers in their purchase and storage decision. The objective of this paper is to test for seasonalities in the Australian retail petrol market. The approach adopted is similar to that for determining calendar anomalies as documented in the financial and commodity markets literature. We find that a monthly seasonal effect is pronounced with petrol prices lower in the months of February-May and highest in July and August. A day-of-the-week effect is also apparent and is manifest in all petrol prices for capital cities (Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney) across various years. However, the half-month effect, as is common in stock returns, is not observed. Moreover, contrary to popular belief that petrol prices are higher surrounding holidays, no evidence of the holiday effect is found. In Brisbane and Melbourne, petrol prices also have some relationship to the mood of consumers, as proxied using weather conditions. This is not observed in Adelaide and Sydney. (Author)

Biofuels and the Greater Mekong Subregion: Assessing the impact on prices, production and trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Jun; Huang, Jikun; Qiu, Huanguang [Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Jia 11, Datun Road, Beijing 100101 (China); Rozelle, Scott [Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies, Stanford University, East Encina Hall, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Sombilla, Mercy A. [Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture, College, Laguna 4031 (Philippines)

2009-11-15

Similar to many other countries, all nations in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) have planned or are planning to develop strong national biofuel programs. The overall goal of this paper is to better understand the impacts of global and regional biofuels on agriculture and the rest of the economy, with a specific focus on the GMS. Based on a modified multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, this study reveals that global biofuel development will significantly increase agricultural prices and production and change trade in agricultural commodities in the GMS and the rest of world. While biofuel in the GMS will have little impacts on global prices, it will have significant effects on domestic agricultural production, land use, trade, and food security. The results also show that the extent of impacts from biofuel is highly dependent on international oil prices and the degree of substitution between biofuel and gasoline. The findings of this study have important policy implications for the GMS countries and the rest of world. (author)

Biofuels and the Greater Mekong Subregion: Assessing the impact on prices, production and trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Jun; Huang, Jikun; Qiu, Huanguang; Rozelle, Scott; Sombilla, Mercy A.

2009-01-01

Similar to many other countries, all nations in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) have planned or are planning to develop strong national biofuel programs. The overall goal of this paper is to better understand the impacts of global and regional biofuels on agriculture and the rest of the economy, with a specific focus on the GMS. Based on a modified multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, this study reveals that global biofuel development will significantly increase agricultural prices and production and change trade in agricultural commodities in the GMS and the rest of world. While biofuel in the GMS will have little impacts on global prices, it will have significant effects on domestic agricultural production, land use, trade, and food security. The results also show that the extent of impacts from biofuel is highly dependent on international oil prices and the degree of substitution between biofuel and gasoline. The findings of this study have important policy implications for the GMS countries and the rest of world. (author)

The Principles and the Specifics of Trading in Commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Baran, Dušan; Herbacsková, Anita

2012-12-01

In the present period of instability on financial markets, investments in commodities are the solution for elimination of the consequences of inflation and ensure the yield. When investing in commodities, the use of specifics of commodities compared to other assets. The distribution of commodities we can interpret for agricultural commodities, commodities of energy, precious and other metals, and weather. Therefore, in the framework of the investment portfolio are the commodities. This is the reason why one of the most popular types of investment assets now become commodities. In the interpretation of particular commodities we talk about commodity futures. The reason is that the spot market with commodities is limited storage facilities. The growth of the popularity, which allows a wide range of commodities, has caused that in addition to from institutional investors and speculators for trade may involve even small investors. This development will be supplemented by interpretation of the charts and figers, which will be commented and used for generalization of knowledge. Finally, the article will be interpreted by the further development of the market for commodities as it by article assumes from the results of research.

Methodology for oil prices projections: a study about oil prices differentials for Brent, Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin; Metodologia de projecao de precos de petroleos: um estudo dos diferenciais de precos entre o 'Brent', Arabe Leve, 'Bonny Light' e Marlin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Machado, Giovani; Aragao, Amanda; Valle, Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)

2008-07-01

Oil is not homogenous commodity in terms of its chemical and physical properties, differing from one to another in density (API degree), sulfur content, acidity etc. Such properties imply in price differentials (discount or premium) for each crude to another in the international market. This study presents a basic model to forecasts price of various crudes based on one 'marker' or reference crude price by applying econometric formulations. The relevant crudes for the study are Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin, while the 'marker' crude is the Brent. Based on a scenario for the Brent price, prices of Arab Light, Bonny Light and Marlin are forecast to 2020. Findings show that price differentials to Brent are minus US$ 5.09-6.57/b (discount) to Arab Light, plus US$ 1.56-3.47/b (premium) to Bonny Light and minus US$ 9.02-13.95/b (discount) to Marlin in the period analyzed (in constant prices of May/2007). Although such figures are in harmony with expected results (theoretical foundations) of discount/premium by crude quality, structural changes in oil market (in particular, large modifications in world refining conversion capacity), catalyzed by high oil prices and energy policy, may reduce forecast strength of the specifications proposed. (author)

Contribution of price/expenditure factors of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011: A decomposition analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Zengming; Zhao, Tao

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Analysis about energy prices and the residential expenditure on energy in China. • Though the prices of energy declined, the price effect was negative. • The effect of price was the strongest restraining contribution. • Discussion on the proportion of energy expenditure in residential incomes. - Abstract: Since the establishment of the market economy in 1993, the residential consumption of commodities, including energy, has been highly influenced by prices in China. However, the contribution of the factors related to prices in residential energy consumption is relatively unexplored. This paper extends the KAYA identity with price and expenditure factors and then applies the LMDI method to a decomposition of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011. Our results show the following: (1) Though the prices of a majority of residential energy sources in China declined, the effect of energy prices restrained residential energy consumption because the expenditure structure changed during the period. (2) During the research period, the urban energy expenditure proportion experienced two progresses of rising and falling, and the rural proportion, which was stable before 2002, sharply increased. (3) The energy consumption intensity effect, which is the negative of the average energy price effect, contributed to most of the decrease in energy consumption, whereas residential income played a key role in the growth of consumption. According to the conclusions, we suggest further marketization and deregulation of energy prices, the promotion of advanced energy types and guidance for better energy consumption patterns

Duopoly price competition on markets with agricultural products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Prášilová

2011-01-01

Full Text Available A situation, in which two firms compete, is in the economic theory described by duopoly models. Market equilibrium on the duopoly market is formed in a reciprocal adjustment process of market prices and materialized market opportunities. The goal of the analysis is to find out whether the agricultural products market is significantly influenced by appearance of duopolies, what form they have and if they can fundamentally influence the price level of food. That food chain stores endeavour to mutually adapt food product prices is generally known; it is set especially by the inelastic demand for the mentioned goods on the side of consumers, i.e., by the need to demand basic food. Duopoly reactions to price competition in food chain stores are particularly strong in the case of commodities of milk and tomatoes, where the reactions and approximation of prices can be clearly seen. Based on statistical research it is obvious that the reactions are most reflected on sales of the food chain stores Billa and Albert. To identify specific reactions of price duopoly at retail chains the ANOVA statistical method was used. The firm’s duopoly behaviour as such on the food market need not be a subject for applying punishment from the antimonopoly bureau, if it does not have the cartel agreement character. An example can be the identical potato prices inquiry in the supermarkets of food chain stores.

17 CFR 37.3 - Requirements for underlying commodities.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... that are a security futures product, and the registered derivatives transaction execution facility is a... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Requirements for underlying commodities. 37.3 Section 37.3 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION...

Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Radiation processing of food and agricultural commodities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, Arun

2014-01-01

Reducing post-harvest food losses is becoming increasingly important for sustaining food supplies. Appropriate post-harvest processing, handling, storage and distribution practices are as important as the efforts to increase productivity for improving food security, food safety and international trade in agricultural commodities. Preservation of food by ionizing radiation involves controlled application of energy of ionizing radiation such as gamma rays, X-rays, and accelerated electrons to agricultural commodities, food products and ingredients, for improving their storage life, hygiene and safety. The process employs either gamma rays emitted by radioisotopes such as cobalt-60 or high-energy electrons or X-rays generated from machine sources

Delivered Pricing, FOB Pricing, and Collusion in Spatial Markets

OpenAIRE

Maria Paz Espinosa

1992-01-01

This article examines price discrimination and collusion in spatial markets. The problem is analyzed in the context of a repeated duopoly game. I conclude that the prevailing pricing systems depend on the structural elements of the market. Delivered pricing systems emerge in equilibrium in highly monopolistic and highly competitive industries, while FOB is used in intermediate market structures. The fact driving this result is that delivered pricing policies allow spatial price discrimination...

Oil price, capital mobility and oil importers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez-Romero, A.

1992-01-01

A three-region, three-commodity general equilibrium model is constructed to explore the impact of OPEC's pricing policies on major macro variables of importer economies. The aim of this paper is to explore general macro characteristics of the trading economies to aid understanding of the world economy response after OPEC I and OPEC II in terms of the evolution of North - South terms of trade, rates of profit and output levels. We support the view of a world economy in a three regions setting, North - South - OPEC. The analysis increases our understanding of why regions respond differently to the same external shock and how from different regimes of capital mobility we should derive alternative policy implications. With the current rise in oil prices, the topic promises to be relevant for some time, although the direction of the shocks has been reserved. (Author)

7 CFR 1421.110 - Commodity certificate exchanges.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... commodity certificate for the marketing assistance loan collateral. (b) The exchange rate is the lesser of... assistance loan collateral. (3) Immediately exchanging the purchased commodity certificate for the outstanding loan collateral. (e) The authority to make commodity certificates available to the producer will...

Locational Pricing to Mitigate Voltage Problems Caused by High PV Penetration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sam Weckx

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a locational marginal pricing algorithm is proposed to control the voltage in unbalanced distribution grids. The increasing amount of photovoltaic (PV generation installed in the grid may cause the voltage to rise to unacceptable levels during periods of low consumption. With locational prices, the distribution system operator can steer the reactive power consumption and active power curtailment of PV panels to guarantee a safe network operation. Flexible loads also respond to these prices. A distributed gradient algorithm automatically defines the locational prices that avoid voltage problems. Using these locational prices results in a minimum cost for the distribution operator to control the voltage. Locational prices can differ between the three phases in unbalanced grids. This is caused by a higher consumption or production in one of the phases compared to the other phases and provides the opportunity for arbitrage, where power is transferred from a phase with a low price to a phase with a high price. The effect of arbitrage is analyzed. The proposed algorithm is applied to an existing three-phase four-wire radial grid. Several simulations with realistic data are performed.

17 CFR 31.6 - Registration of leverage commodities.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... taking delivery to buy or sell the leverage commodity; (2) Explain the effect of such changes upon the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Registration of leverage... LEVERAGE TRANSACTIONS § 31.6 Registration of leverage commodities. (a) Registration of leverage commodities...

How is the international price of a particular crude determined?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hagen, Ronald

1994-01-01

If crude oil or oil products are not the final item of consumption, then oil is not bought or sold on any basis other than its contribution to the final product. The markets of oil products are thus 'derived' from more basic demands, and prices are determined by what they contribute to the costs of producing final products or commodities. Similarly, the value of a crude oil is derived from the value of the petroleum products it yields. This paper attempts to show how differences in crude oil prices seem to occur. The results should be of interest to producers of crude oil, since they will demonstrate how the marketability of their products might vary. (author)

17 CFR 32.11 - Suspension of commodity option transactions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Suspension of commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.11 Suspension of commodity option transactions. (a... accept money, securities or property in connection with, the purchase or sale of any commodity option, or...

The Effects of High and Volatile Oil Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Artus, Patrick; Autume, Antoine d'; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie; Coeure, Benoit; Kalantizs, Yannick; Klein, Caroline; Guesnerie, Roger; Callonnec, Gael; Gaudin, Thomas; Moisan, Francois; Lescaroux, Francois; Clerc, Marie; Marcus, Vincent; Lalanne, Guy; Pouliquen, Erwan; Simon, Olivier; Mignon, Valerie

2010-01-01

demand into play (this is estimated at around 0.2 in the short term and around 0.4 over the longer term for fuel demand) and possibly caused behavioural changes such as those seen in France and described in the report. The other explanation is related to energy and environmental policies, which have helped reduce oil demand. However, the strong growth expected in emerging markets is likely to increase global demand for oil by several million barrels per day by 2014. This reflects the expectation that the number of cars on the road worldwide will double by 2030, and it seems unlikely that tougher environmental constraints will contain these trends. Half of this growth will come from Asia. Such an increase in global oil demand will only be sustainable if it is accompanied by higher prices that will enable the exploitation of new unconventional oil fields or fields with high production costs. As regards volatility, the authors first repeat that there are real determinants at play: the level of oil prices encourages or discourages investment in production capacity. Low oil prices slow capacity investments and therefore limit future supply, which then causes prices to rise, thereby providing an incentive to invest and develop supply. However, neither these (endogenous) irregularities in the investment programs of oil companies and exporting countries nor changing demand trends alone can account for the sharp rise in prices between 2002 and 2008 and the very sudden drop that followed in July-August 2008. A number of observers believe that the explanation lies in speculation on the oil market. The report's authors sift through all the arguments for and against this theory. While it is undeniable that speculation has developed on the oil futures market, the authors question two key points: was this speculation really focused on an oil price rally, and could it have such a significant retroactive effect on spot prices? Their conclusions recognise that speculation was indeed

Pricing and Trust

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

-competitive (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However......We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...

Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

OpenAIRE

Saber Talari; Miadreza Shafie-khah; Gerardo J. Osório; Fei Wang; Alireza Heidari; João P. S. Catalão

2017-01-01

Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind...

Hogged wood fuel price analysis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biederman, R.T.; Blazek, C.F.; Fox, P.J.

1991-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the results of a comprehensive analysis of wood residues used for meeting energy requirements in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. These wood residues are generated primarily from cutting, sawing, planning, sanding, and debarking activities in the lumber and plywood industries. While high-quality wood residues are commonly used as raw material in the manufacture of pulp and board commodities, a very large amount of wood residues are ultimately used for plant fuel purposes. The characteristics of this market for hogged wood fuel are examined in depth, with particular emphasis given to the factors which affect the supply, demand and price of hogged wood. Hogged wood has played an enormous role in the Pacific Northwest for over sixty years, a result of the massive regional timber harvest. Utilization of this renewable energy resource continues to be a large component in regional energy supply. Despite having a large number of highly integrated mills that both use and produce wood residues, the Pacific Northwest region experiences a lively trade in hogged wood. The IGT study discussed herein examines the determinants of the regional market price for hogged wood. A number of useful leading indicators are identified, and a statistical forecasting model is prepared to help predict future hogged wood prices. This model provides insight into the factors that are, and are not, important determinants of hogged wood price. The issue of fuel substitution is addressed in relation to the potential of hogged wood to displace some amount of primary energy sources such as natural gas and electricity. Also examined in the study are techniques to estimate the actual quantity of hogged wood available, and the quantity demanded by the marketplace. Conclusions presented in the study have important ramifications for understanding the price behavior and utilization of hogged wood fuel. 4 refs., 12 figs

THE EFFECT OF VESSEL SUPPLY ON SHIP-DEMOLITION PRICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikos Kagkarakis

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The ship-demolition is one of the four main markets that form the shipping industry and plays an important role on the seaborne trade, as it mitigates imbalances between supply and demand for transportation services by adjusting the merchant fleet supply. The aim of this study is to examine whether the factors that determine the supply of vessels for demolition are capable of affecting materially the ship-demolition price formation. The availability of ships for demolition is primarily a function of the fleet’s age and the conditions on the freight and secondhand markets. The analysis is conducted on the crude tanker and the bulk carrier segments and the vector autoregressive model methodology is employed, whereby the effect of both the supply and the demand factors on the ship-demolition prices is examined. The results indicate that the supply side has limited effect on the price formation in the industry, which is driven by the demand for the steel-scrap commodity.

Investing today in energy for tomorrow. U.S. civilian nuclear industry: high-level oversight. Oil prices: getting close to the psychological threshold. The future of biofuels in question

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2008-01-01

This issue of Alternatives newsletter features 4 main articles dealing with: 1 - Investing today in energy for tomorrow: Whether to increase or to replace generating capacity, the amount of investment needed in energy infrastructure to meet rising demand has been identified, but many obstacles must be overcome before they become a reality. A status report and personal perspective from Pierre Gadonneix, CEO of EDF, in the 'Expert opinion' section. 2 - U.S. civilian nuclear industry - high-level oversight: The approaches are clearly different, but the licensing processes for nuclear reactor development and operation in France and the United States are both strictly regulated. Alternatives delves further. 3 - Oil prices - getting close to the psychological threshold: Are we going to stop using oil sooner rather than later if crude prices keep going up? European commodities expert Philippe Chalmin shares his opinion. 4 - The future of biofuels in question In many countries, biofuels are seen as an alternative to oil. Still, farmland is not expandable forever and the economics of biofuels deserve some scrutiny

Comparing branch-and-price algorithms for the Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gamst, Mette; Petersen, Bjørn

2012-01-01

-Protocol Label Switching. The problem has previously been solved to optimality through branch-and-price. In this paper we propose two exact solution methods both based on an alternative decomposition. The two methods differ in their branching strategy. The first method, which branches on forbidden edge sequences...

Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products

Science.gov (United States)

Sijia Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

2010-01-01

The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We...

Stochastic modeling of stock price process induced from the conjugate heat equation

Science.gov (United States)

Paeng, Seong-Hun

2015-02-01

Currency can be considered as a ruler for values of commodities. Then the price is the measured value by the ruler. We can suppose that inflation and variation of exchange rate are caused by variation of the scale of the ruler. In geometry, variation of the scale means that the metric is time-dependent. The conjugate heat equation is the modified heat equation which satisfies the heat conservation law for the time-dependent metric space. We propose a new model of stock prices by using the stochastic process whose transition probability is determined by the kernel of the conjugate heat equation. Our model of stock prices shows how the volatility term is affected by inflation and exchange rate. This model modifies the Black-Scholes equation in light of inflation and exchange rate.

Mineral commodity summaries 2015

Science.gov (United States)

,

2015-01-01

Each chapter of the 2015 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2014 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses.

Do increasing prices affect food deprivation in the European Union?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sol García-Germán

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The rise of prices of agricultural commodities in global markets during 2007-2012 was followed by increased consumer food prices around the world. More expensive food may have an impact on consumer food access and thus on their welfare, not only in developing countries but also amongst the most vulnerable in developed countries. Using a longitudinal database from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and population-averaged models, we tested whether increasing food prices had an impact on household food deprivation in 26 European Union (EU member states. Results revealed a significant relationship between food deprivation and the consumer food price index and disposable income. Households in the lowest income quintile in the member states recently acceded to the EU were the most vulnerable to food deprivation. Results also showed that low-income households in densely populated areas were more vulnerable to food deprivation. This should be taken into account when evaluating food assistance programmes that focus on the segments of the population most at risk of food deprivation.

Do increasing prices affect food deprivation in the European Union?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García-Germán, S.; Bardají, I.; Garrido, A.

2018-01-01

The rise of prices of agricultural commodities in global markets during 2007-2012 was followed by increased consumer food prices around the world. More expensive food may have an impact on consumer food access and thus on their welfare, not only in developing countries but also amongst the most vulnerable in developed countries. Using a longitudinal database from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and population-averaged models, we tested whether increasing food prices had an impact on household food deprivation in 26 European Union (EU) member states. Results revealed a significant relationship between food deprivation and the consumer food price index and disposable income. Households in the lowest income quintile in the member states recently acceded to the EU were the most vulnerable to food deprivation. Results also showed that low-income households in densely populated areas were more vulnerable to food deprivation. This should be taken into account when evaluating food assistance programmes that focus on the segments of the population most at risk of food deprivation.

49 CFR 1248.1 - Freight commodity statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Freight commodity statistics. 1248.1 Section 1248... STATISTICS § 1248.1 Freight commodity statistics. All class I railroads, as described in § 1240.1 of this... statistics on the basis of the commodity codes named in § 1248.101. Carriers shall report quarterly on the...

Do ultra-orphan medicinal products warrant ultra-high prices? A review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Picavet E

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Eline Picavet,1 David Cassiman,2 Steven Simoens1 1Department of Pharmaceutical and Pharmacological Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; 2Department of Hepatology, University Hospital Leuven, Leuven, Belgium Abstract: Ultra-orphan medicinal products (ultra-OMPs are intended for the treatment, prevention, or diagnosis of ultra-rare diseases, ie, life-threatening or chronically debilitating diseases that affect less than one per 50,000 individuals. Recently, high prices for ultra-OMPs have given rise to debate on the sustainability and justification of these prices. The aim of this article is to review the international scientific literature on the pricing of ultra-OMPs and to provide an overview of the current knowledge on the drivers of ultra-OMP pricing. The pricing process of ultra-OMPs is a complex and nontransparent issue. Evidence in the literature seems to indicate that ultra-OMPs are priced according to rarity and what the manufacturer believes the market will bear. Additionally, there appears to be a trend between the price of an ultra-OMP and the number of available alternatives. Patients, third-party payers, and pharmaceutical companies could benefit from more transparent pricing strategies. With a view to containing health care costs, it is likely that cost-sharing strategies, such as performance-based risk sharing arrangements, will become increasingly more important. However, it is vital that any measures for price control are consistent with the intended goals of the incentives to promote the development of new OMPs. Ideally, a balance must be struck between attaining affordable prices for ultra-OMPs and securing a realistic return on investment for the pharmaceutical industry. Keywords: ultra-orphan medicinal product, ultra-rare disease, pricing

The Commodity Form of Safety Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Finkelstein

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The production of safety information is deemed a vital resource to protect human lives at the work site. The injury rate, lost days, incapacity rate, and fatality rate, are key indicators to prop up labour risk awareness and identify job hazards. However, safety information gets highly distorted because it does not only measure risk but serves as a means of exchange. It determines the amount of money to be swapped between Workers’ Compensation Boards and their client corporations. Moreover, as a depository of exchange value, safety information tends to exert pressure over social reality rather than just being a passive reflection of it. This paper discloses the commodity form of safety information. Based on a political economy of information framework, it identifies, describes, and analyses the safety information commodity in its active role of organizing safety and labour health.

Oil price dynamics and speculation. A multivariate financial approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cifarelli, Giulio; Paladino, Giovanna

2010-01-01

This paper assesses empirically whether speculation affects oil price dynamics. The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has led to the diffusion of trading techniques based on extrapolative expectations. Strategies of this kind foster feedback trading that may cause considerable departures of prices from their fundamental values. We investigate this hypothesis using a modified CAPM following Shiller (1984) and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). First, a univariate GARCH(1,1)-M is estimated assuming the risk premium to be a function of the conditional oil price volatility. The single factor model, however, is outperformed by the multifactor ICAPM (Merton, 1973), which takes into account a larger investment opportunity set. Analysis is then carried out using a trivariate CCC GARCH-M model with complex nonlinear conditional mean equations where oil price dynamics are associated with both stock market and exchange rate behavior. We find strong evidence that oil price shifts are negatively related to stock price and exchange rate changes and that a complex web of time-varying first and second order conditional moment interactions affects both the CAPM and feedback trading components of the model. Despite the difficulties, we identify a significant role played by speculation in the oil market, which is consistent with the observed large daily upward and downward shifts in prices - a clear evidence that it is not a fundamental-driven market. Thus, from a policy point of view - given the impact of volatile oil prices on global inflation and growth - actions that monitor speculative activities on commodity markets more effectively are to be welcomed. (author)

Oil price dynamics and speculation. A multivariate financial approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cifarelli, Giulio [University of Florence, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, via delle Pandette 9, 50127, Florence (Italy); Paladino, Giovanna [Economics Department, LUISS University (Italy); BIIS International Division (Italy)

2010-03-15

This paper assesses empirically whether speculation affects oil price dynamics. The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has led to the diffusion of trading techniques based on extrapolative expectations. Strategies of this kind foster feedback trading that may cause considerable departures of prices from their fundamental values. We investigate this hypothesis using a modified CAPM following Shiller (1984) and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). First, a univariate GARCH(1,1)-M is estimated assuming the risk premium to be a function of the conditional oil price volatility. The single factor model, however, is outperformed by the multifactor ICAPM (Merton, 1973), which takes into account a larger investment opportunity set. Analysis is then carried out using a trivariate CCC GARCH-M model with complex nonlinear conditional mean equations where oil price dynamics are associated with both stock market and exchange rate behavior. We find strong evidence that oil price shifts are negatively related to stock price and exchange rate changes and that a complex web of time-varying first and second order conditional moment interactions affects both the CAPM and feedback trading components of the model. Despite the difficulties, we identify a significant role played by speculation in the oil market, which is consistent with the observed large daily upward and downward shifts in prices - a clear evidence that it is not a fundamental-driven market. Thus, from a policy point of view - given the impact of volatile oil prices on global inflation and growth - actions that monitor speculative activities on commodity markets more effectively are to be welcomed. (author)

Hedging LDC price risk in the futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trace, J.W.

1990-01-01

During its first five months the natural gas futures market has seen steady growth and increasing participation by various industry players, particularly producers, marketers, and brokers. Not much has been heard, however, about participation by the principal retailers of the gas industry, the local distribution companies (LDCs). Undoubtedly, various LDCs are now in the process of determining whether or not the gas futures market can serve any useful business purpose in their operations. In examining this question LDCs should keep in mind that the futures market should serve the same purpose for them as it does for any other business engaged in the actual buying and selling of price-volatile commodities - mitigation of price risk. This article looks at the risks of the market, gives examples of investments to hedge risks and looks at the overall performance of the market

Estimates of immediate effects on world markets of a hypothetical disruption to Russia’s supply of six mineral commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Safirova, Elena; Barry, James J.; Hastorun, Sinan; Matos, Grecia R.; Perez, Alberto Alexander; Bedinger, George M.; Bray, E. Lee; Jasinski, Stephen M.; Kuck, Peter H.; Loferski, Patricia J.

2017-05-18

The potential immediate effects of a hypothetical shock to Russia’s supply of selected mineral commodities on the world market and on individual countries were determined and monetized (in 2014 U.S. dollars). The mineral commodities considered were aluminum (refined primary), nickel (refined primary), palladium (refined) and platinum (refined), potash, and titanium (mill products), and the regions and countries of primary interest were the United States, the European Union (EU–28), and China. The shock is assumed to have infinite duration, but only the immediate effects, those limited by a 1-year period, are considered.A methodology for computing and monetizing the potential impacts was developed. Then the data pertaining to all six mineral commodities were collected and the most likely effects were computed. Because of the uncertainties associated with some of the data, sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the validity of the results.Results indicate that the impact on the United States arising from a shock to Russia’s supply, in terms of the value of net exports, would range from a gain of \\$336 million for titanium mill products to a loss of \\$237 million for potash; thus, the overall effect of a supply shock is likely to be quite modest. The study also demonstrates that, taken alone, Russia’s share in the world production of a particular commodity is not necessarily indicative of the size of potential impacts resulting from a supply shock; other factors, such as prices, domestic production, and the structure of international commodity flows were found to be important as well.

1993 commodity flow survey : state summaries

Science.gov (United States)

1997-06-01

This report summarizes the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) state reports released between February 1996 and July 1996 by the Bureau of the Census and the 1993 Commodity Flow Survey: Preliminary Observations by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Inf...

Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boom, Anette

not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small......Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...

Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boom, Anette

Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...... not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small...

An analysis of the effectiveness of a joint commodity and foreign exchange rate futures hedge: The case of a Canadian crude oil trader