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Sample records for hierarchical statistical model

  1. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  2. Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cressie, Noel; Calder, Catherine A; Clark, James S; Ver Hoef, Jay M; Wikle, Christopher K

    2009-04-01

    Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

  3. Action detection by double hierarchical multi-structure space-time statistical matching model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jing; Zhu, Junwei; Cui, Yiyin; Bai, Lianfa; Yue, Jiang

    2018-03-01

    Aimed at the complex information in videos and low detection efficiency, an actions detection model based on neighboring Gaussian structure and 3D LARK features is put forward. We exploit a double hierarchical multi-structure space-time statistical matching model (DMSM) in temporal action localization. First, a neighboring Gaussian structure is presented to describe the multi-scale structural relationship. Then, a space-time statistical matching method is proposed to achieve two similarity matrices on both large and small scales, which combines double hierarchical structural constraints in model by both the neighboring Gaussian structure and the 3D LARK local structure. Finally, the double hierarchical similarity is fused and analyzed to detect actions. Besides, the multi-scale composite template extends the model application into multi-view. Experimental results of DMSM on the complex visual tracker benchmark data sets and THUMOS 2014 data sets show the promising performance. Compared with other state-of-the-art algorithm, DMSM achieves superior performances.

  4. Statistical Significance for Hierarchical Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimes, Patrick K.; Liu, Yufeng; Hayes, D. Neil; Marron, J. S.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Cluster analysis has proved to be an invaluable tool for the exploratory and unsupervised analysis of high dimensional datasets. Among methods for clustering, hierarchical approaches have enjoyed substantial popularity in genomics and other fields for their ability to simultaneously uncover multiple layers of clustering structure. A critical and challenging question in cluster analysis is whether the identified clusters represent important underlying structure or are artifacts of natural sampling variation. Few approaches have been proposed for addressing this problem in the context of hierarchical clustering, for which the problem is further complicated by the natural tree structure of the partition, and the multiplicity of tests required to parse the layers of nested clusters. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo based approach for testing statistical significance in hierarchical clustering which addresses these issues. The approach is implemented as a sequential testing procedure guaranteeing control of the family-wise error rate. Theoretical justification is provided for our approach, and its power to detect true clustering structure is illustrated through several simulation studies and applications to two cancer gene expression datasets. PMID:28099990

  5. Topics in Computational Bayesian Statistics With Applications to Hierarchical Models in Astronomy and Sociology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahai, Swupnil

    This thesis includes three parts. The overarching theme is how to analyze structured hierarchical data, with applications to astronomy and sociology. The first part discusses how expectation propagation can be used to parallelize the computation when fitting big hierarchical bayesian models. This methodology is then used to fit a novel, nonlinear mixture model to ultraviolet radiation from various regions of the observable universe. The second part discusses how the Stan probabilistic programming language can be used to numerically integrate terms in a hierarchical bayesian model. This technique is demonstrated on supernovae data to significantly speed up convergence to the posterior distribution compared to a previous study that used a Gibbs-type sampler. The third part builds a formal latent kernel representation for aggregate relational data as a way to more robustly estimate the mixing characteristics of agents in a network. In particular, the framework is applied to sociology surveys to estimate, as a function of ego age, the age and sex composition of the personal networks of individuals in the United States.

  6. Evaluation of random cascade hierarchical and statistical arrangement model in disaggregation of SMOS soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, M.; Magagi, R.; Goita, K.

    2013-12-01

    are applied to the soil moisture products before application of disaggregation method. The disaggregation is also done by using an improved version of the model, i.e. Random Cascade Hierarchical and Statistical Arrangement (RCHSA) model (Shrestha et al., 2004). In this model, the spatial correlation parameter is used to improve the reliability of the model. The results show that by comparison with RC model, the RCHSA method could improve the accuracy of disaggregation up to about 0.05 (m3/m3). References Over, T. M., and Gupta, V. K., A space-time theory of mesoscale rainfall using random cascades, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 101, No. D21, p. 26319-26331, 1996. Shrestha, R. K., Tachikawa, Y., and Takara, K., Downscaling spatial rainfall field from global scale to local scale using improved multiplicative random cascade method, Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., p. 47, 2004.

  7. A Hierarchical Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Ensemble Model output Statistics in Atmospheric Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    represented by the dispersion of the discrete forecast estimates (black curves). 6 The computational intractability of Epstein’s complete...that scales well with complicated systems, the posterior densities are often analytically intractable (G13). To this end, MCMC methods provide a...participation in this conflict . Nevertheless, the advantages of intuitive, common-sense Bayesian statistical conclusions detailed by Casella (2008), Gelman

  8. Hierarchical species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

  9. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  10. Hierarchical models and functional traits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Loon, E.E.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Sierdsema, H.; Bouten, W.; Cramer, W.; Badeck, F.; Krukenberg, B.; Klotz, S.; Kühn, I.; Schweiger, O.; Böhning-Gaese, K.; Schaefer, H.-C.; Kissling, D.; Brandl, R.; Brändle, M.; Fricke, R.; Leuschner, C.; Buschmann, H.; Köckermann, B.; Rose, L.

    2006-01-01

    Hierarchical models for animal abundance prediction are conceptually elegant. They are generally more parsimonous than non-hierarchical models derived from the same data, give relatively robust predictions and automatically provide consistent output at multiple (spatio-temporal) scales. Another

  11. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

    2003-01-01

    Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

  12. Inequality contrained hierarchical models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kato, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    In multilevel research, the data structure in the population is hierarchical, and the sample data are viewed as a multistage sample from this hierarchical population. For instance in educational research, the population consists of schools and pupils within these schools. In this scenario, pupils

  13. Global CO2 flux inversions from remote-sensing data with systematic errors using hierarchical statistical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Stavert, Ann; Rigby, Matthew; Ganesan, Anita; Rayner, Peter; Cressie, Noel

    2017-04-01

    The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite was launched on 2 July 2014, and it has been a source of atmospheric CO2 data since September 2014. The OCO-2 dataset contains a number of variables, but the one of most interest for flux inversion has been the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (in units of ppm). These global level-2 data offer the possibility of inferring CO2 fluxes at Earth's surface and tracking those fluxes over time. However, as well as having a component of random error, the OCO-2 data have a component of systematic error that is dependent on the instrument's mode, namely land nadir, land glint, and ocean glint. Our statistical approach to CO2-flux inversion starts with constructing a statistical model for the random and systematic errors with parameters that can be estimated from the OCO-2 data and possibly in situ sources from flasks, towers, and the Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). Dimension reduction of the flux field is achieved through the use of physical basis functions, while temporal evolution of the flux is captured by modelling the basis-function coefficients as a vector autoregressive process. For computational efficiency, flux inversion uses only three months of sensitivities of mole fraction to changes in flux, computed using MOZART; any residual variation is captured through the modelling of a stochastic process that varies smoothly as a function of latitude. The second stage of our statistical approach is to simulate from the posterior distribution of the basis-function coefficients and all unknown parameters given the data using a fully Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Estimates and posterior variances of the flux field can then be obtained straightforwardly from this distribution. Our statistical approach is different than others, as it simultaneously makes inference (and quantifies uncertainty) on both the error components' parameters and the CO2 fluxes. We compare it to more classical

  14. Interpreting Hierarchical Linear and Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models with Slopes as Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tate, Richard

    2004-01-01

    Current descriptions of results from hierarchical linear models (HLM) and hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLM), usually based only on interpretations of individual model parameters, are incomplete in the presence of statistically significant and practically important "slopes as outcomes" terms in the models. For complete description of…

  15. Hierarchical Bass model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tashiro, Tohru

    2014-03-01

    We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model.

  16. Hierarchical Bass model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashiro, Tohru

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model

  17. Application of Parallel Hierarchical Matrices and Low-Rank Tensors in Spatial Statistics and Parameter Identification

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2018-03-12

    Part 1: Parallel H-matrices in spatial statistics 1. Motivation: improve statistical model 2. Tools: Hierarchical matrices 3. Matern covariance function and joint Gaussian likelihood 4. Identification of unknown parameters via maximizing Gaussian log-likelihood 5. Implementation with HLIBPro. Part 2: Low-rank Tucker tensor methods in spatial statistics

  18. Application of Parallel Hierarchical Matrices in Spatial Statistics and Parameter Identification

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2018-04-20

    Parallel H-matrices in spatial statistics 1. Motivation: improve statistical model 2. Tools: Hierarchical matrices [Hackbusch 1999] 3. Matern covariance function and joint Gaussian likelihood 4. Identification of unknown parameters via maximizing Gaussian log-likelihood 5. Implementation with HLIBPro

  19. SAR Imagery Segmentation by Statistical Region Growing and Hierarchical Merging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ushizima, Daniela Mayumi; Carvalho, E.A.; Medeiros, F.N.S.; Martins, C.I.O.; Marques, R.C.P.; Oliveira, I.N.S.

    2010-05-22

    This paper presents an approach to accomplish synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image segmentation, which are corrupted by speckle noise. Some ordinary segmentation techniques may require speckle filtering previously. Our approach performs radar image segmentation using the original noisy pixels as input data, eliminating preprocessing steps, an advantage over most of the current methods. The algorithm comprises a statistical region growing procedure combined with hierarchical region merging to extract regions of interest from SAR images. The region growing step over-segments the input image to enable region aggregation by employing a combination of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test with a hierarchical stepwise optimization (HSWO) algorithm for the process coordination. We have tested and assessed the proposed technique on artificially speckled image and real SAR data containing different types of targets.

  20. Classifying hospitals as mortality outliers: logistic versus hierarchical logistic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrescu, Roxana; Bottle, Alex; Jarman, Brian; Aylin, Paul

    2014-05-01

    The use of hierarchical logistic regression for provider profiling has been recommended due to the clustering of patients within hospitals, but has some associated difficulties. We assess changes in hospital outlier status based on standard logistic versus hierarchical logistic modelling of mortality. The study population consisted of all patients admitted to acute, non-specialist hospitals in England between 2007 and 2011 with a primary diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, acute cerebrovascular disease or fracture of neck of femur or a primary procedure of coronary artery bypass graft or repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. We compared standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) from non-hierarchical models with SMRs from hierarchical models, without and with shrinkage estimates of the predicted probabilities (Model 1 and Model 2). The SMRs from standard logistic and hierarchical models were highly statistically significantly correlated (r > 0.91, p = 0.01). More outliers were recorded in the standard logistic regression than hierarchical modelling only when using shrinkage estimates (Model 2): 21 hospitals (out of a cumulative number of 565 pairs of hospitals under study) changed from a low outlier and 8 hospitals changed from a high outlier based on the logistic regression to a not-an-outlier based on shrinkage estimates. Both standard logistic and hierarchical modelling have identified nearly the same hospitals as mortality outliers. The choice of methodological approach should, however, also consider whether the modelling aim is judgment or improvement, as shrinkage may be more appropriate for the former than the latter.

  1. What are hierarchical models and how do we analyze them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, Andy

    2016-01-01

    In this chapter we provide a basic definition of hierarchical models and introduce the two canonical hierarchical models in this book: site occupancy and N-mixture models. The former is a hierarchical extension of logistic regression and the latter is a hierarchical extension of Poisson regression. We introduce basic concepts of probability modeling and statistical inference including likelihood and Bayesian perspectives. We go through the mechanics of maximizing the likelihood and characterizing the posterior distribution by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We give a general perspective on topics such as model selection and assessment of model fit, although we demonstrate these topics in practice in later chapters (especially Chapters 5, 6, 7, and 10 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 10)

  2. Classification using Hierarchical Naive Bayes models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langseth, Helge; Dyhre Nielsen, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Classification problems have a long history in the machine learning literature. One of the simplest, and yet most consistently well-performing set of classifiers is the Naïve Bayes models. However, an inherent problem with these classifiers is the assumption that all attributes used to describe......, termed Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models. Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models extend the modeling flexibility of Naïve Bayes models by introducing latent variables to relax some of the independence statements in these models. We propose a simple algorithm for learning Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models...

  3. Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

  4. New Statistical Approach to the Analysis of Hierarchical Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuman, S. P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many variables possess a hierarchical structure reflected in how their increments vary in space and/or time. Quite commonly the increments (a) fluctuate in a highly irregular manner; (b) possess symmetric, non-Gaussian frequency distributions characterized by heavy tails that often decay with separation distance or lag; (c) exhibit nonlinear power-law scaling of sample structure functions in a midrange of lags, with breakdown in such scaling at small and large lags; (d) show extended power-law scaling (ESS) at all lags; and (e) display nonlinear scaling of power-law exponent with order of sample structure function. Some interpret this to imply that the variables are multifractal, which explains neither breakdowns in power-law scaling nor ESS. We offer an alternative interpretation consistent with all above phenomena. It views data as samples from stationary, anisotropic sub-Gaussian random fields subordinated to truncated fractional Brownian motion (tfBm) or truncated fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). The fields are scaled Gaussian mixtures with random variances. Truncation of fBm and fGn entails filtering out components below data measurement or resolution scale and above domain scale. Our novel interpretation of the data allows us to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of all parameters characterizing the underlying truncated sub-Gaussian fields. These parameters in turn make it possible to downscale or upscale all statistical moments to situations entailing smaller or larger measurement or resolution and sampling scales, respectively. They also allow one to perform conditional or unconditional Monte Carlo simulations of random field realizations corresponding to these scales. Aspects of our approach are illustrated on field and laboratory measured porous and fractured rock permeabilities, as well as soil texture characteristics and neural network estimates of unsaturated hydraulic parameters in a deep vadose zone near Phoenix, Arizona. We also use our approach

  5. A hierarchical model for ordinal matrix factorization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paquet, Ulrich; Thomson, Blaise; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a hierarchical probabilistic model for ordinal matrix factorization. Unlike previous approaches, we model the ordinal nature of the data and take a principled approach to incorporating priors for the hidden variables. Two algorithms are presented for inference, one based...

  6. [Use of hierarchical models in nephrology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Julien; Couchoud, Cécile

    2014-07-01

    The use of hierarchical models in public health research is recently increasing in order to study all the factors explaining health outcomes. Thus, a better understanding of those models is needed first to identify questions that may be answered by using them and also to be aware of there limitations. On the one hand, hierarchical models managed to take into account the hierarchical structure of the data allowing a better estimation of the effects of the explanatory variables and the study of the impact of the "environment" (i.e.: neighborhood, treatment center, same clinical trial…) on health outcomes. They also allow the study of factors that may explain this impact of the "environment". On the other hand, they are more complex and a reflection on which determinant to include and how the environment is supposed to impact patients' health is much needed. This article reviews the rationale for using hierarchical models in public health research and especially in nephrologic research. We attempt to give a simple presentation of these models and to illustrate their results and potential use in the field of nephrology, as well as their limits. Copyright © 2014 Association Société de néphrologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  8. Internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model

    OpenAIRE

    RAHMANI, Samaneh

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. Present paper has been developed with the title of internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model. Presenting the question: Today Internet is an important channel in marketing and advertising. The reason for this could be the ability of the Internet to reduce costs and people’s access to online services[1]. Also advertisers can easily access a multitude of users and communicate with them at low cost [9]. On the other hand, compared to traditional advertising, interne...

  9. Semantic Image Segmentation with Contextual Hierarchical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyedhosseini, Mojtaba; Tasdizen, Tolga

    2016-05-01

    Semantic segmentation is the problem of assigning an object label to each pixel. It unifies the image segmentation and object recognition problems. The importance of using contextual information in semantic segmentation frameworks has been widely realized in the field. We propose a contextual framework, called contextual hierarchical model (CHM), which learns contextual information in a hierarchical framework for semantic segmentation. At each level of the hierarchy, a classifier is trained based on downsampled input images and outputs of previous levels. Our model then incorporates the resulting multi-resolution contextual information into a classifier to segment the input image at original resolution. This training strategy allows for optimization of a joint posterior probability at multiple resolutions through the hierarchy. Contextual hierarchical model is purely based on the input image patches and does not make use of any fragments or shape examples. Hence, it is applicable to a variety of problems such as object segmentation and edge detection. We demonstrate that CHM performs at par with state-of-the-art on Stanford background and Weizmann horse datasets. It also outperforms state-of-the-art edge detection methods on NYU depth dataset and achieves state-of-the-art on Berkeley segmentation dataset (BSDS 500).

  10. Multilevel statistical models

    CERN Document Server

    Goldstein, Harvey

    2011-01-01

    This book provides a clear introduction to this important area of statistics. The author provides a wide of coverage of different kinds of multilevel models, and how to interpret different statistical methodologies and algorithms applied to such models. This 4th edition reflects the growth and interest in this area and is updated to include new chapters on multilevel models with mixed response types, smoothing and multilevel data, models with correlated random effects and modeling with variance.

  11. Relating soil geochemical properties to arsenic bioaccessibility through hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Clay M; Li, Kevin; Obenour, Daniel R; Miller, Jonathan; Misenheimer, John C; Scheckel, Kirk; Betts, Aaron; Juhasz, Albert; Thomas, David J; Bradham, Karen D

    2018-01-01

    Interest in improved understanding of relationships among soil properties and arsenic (As) bioaccessibility has motivated the use of regression models for As bioaccessibility prediction. However, limits in the numbers and types of soils included in previous studies restrict the usefulness of these models beyond the range of soil conditions evaluated, as evidenced by reduced predictive performance when applied to new data. In response, hierarchical models that consider variability in relationships among soil properties and As bioaccessibility across geographic locations and contaminant sources were developed to predict As bioaccessibility in 139 soils on both a mass fraction (mg/kg) and % basis. The hierarchical approach improved the estimation of As bioaccessibility in studied soils. In addition, the number of soil elements identified as statistically significant explanatory variables increased when compared to previous investigations. Specifically, total soil Fe, P, Ca, Co, and V were significant explanatory variables in both models, while total As, Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn were also significant in the mass fraction model and Mg was significant in the % model. This developed hierarchical approach provides a novel tool to (1) explore relationships between soil properties and As bioaccessibility across a broad range of soil types and As contaminant sources encountered in the environment and (2) identify areas of future mechanistic research to better understand the complexity of interactions between soil properties and As bioaccessibility.

  12. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  13. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  14. Modelling complex networks by random hierarchical graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Wróbel

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Numerous complex networks contain special patterns, called network motifs. These are specific subgraphs, which occur oftener than in randomized networks of Erdős-Rényi type. We choose one of them, the triangle, and build a family of random hierarchical graphs, being Sierpiński gasket-based graphs with random "decorations". We calculate the important characteristics of these graphs - average degree, average shortest path length, small-world graph family characteristics. They depend on probability of decorations. We analyze the Ising model on our graphs and describe its critical properties using a renormalization-group technique.

  15. Diffeomorphic Statistical Deformation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Sass; Hansen, Mads/Fogtman; Larsen, Rasmus

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present a new method for constructing diffeomorphic statistical deformation models in arbitrary dimensional images with a nonlinear generative model and a linear parameter space. Our deformation model is a modified version of the diffeomorphic model introduced by Cootes et al....... The modifications ensure that no boundary restriction has to be enforced on the parameter space to prevent folds or tears in the deformation field. For straightforward statistical analysis, principal component analysis and sparse methods, we assume that the parameters for a class of deformations lie on a linear...

  16. A continuum model for hierarchical fibril assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lith, B. S.; Muntean, A.; Storm, C.

    2014-06-01

    Most of the biological polymers that make up our cells and tissues are hierarchically structured. For biopolymers ranging from collagen, to actin, to fibrin and amyloid fibrils this hierarchy provides vitally important versatility. The structural hierarchy must be encoded in the self-assembly process, from the earliest stages onward, in order to produce the appropriate substructures. In this letter, we explore the kinetics of multistage self-assembly processes in a model system which allows comparison to bulk probes such as light scattering. We apply our model to recent turbidimetry data on the self-assembly of collagen fibrils. Our analysis suggests a connection between diffusion-limited aggregation kinetics and fibril growth, supported by slow, power-law growth at very long time scales.

  17. Entrepreneurial intention modeling using hierarchical multiple regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Jeger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to identify the contribution of effectuation dimensions to the predictive power of the entrepreneurial intention model over and above that which can be accounted for by other predictors selected and confirmed in previous studies. As is often the case in social and behavioral studies, some variables are likely to be highly correlated with each other. Therefore, the relative amount of variance in the criterion variable explained by each of the predictors depends on several factors such as the order of variable entry and sample specifics. The results show the modest predictive power of two dimensions of effectuation prior to the introduction of the theory of planned behavior elements. The article highlights the main advantages of applying hierarchical regression in social sciences as well as in the specific context of entrepreneurial intention formation, and addresses some of the potential pitfalls that this type of analysis entails.

  18. Hierarchical Data Structures, Institutional Research, and Multilevel Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A.; Reed, Sandra J.

    2012-01-01

    Multilevel modeling (MLM), also referred to as hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) or mixed models, provides a powerful analytical framework through which to study colleges and universities and their impact on students. Due to the natural hierarchical structure of data obtained from students or faculty in colleges and universities, MLM offers many…

  19. Hierarchical Bayesian models of subtask learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K A

    2015-07-01

    The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking task, which logged participant actions, enabling measurement of strategy use and subtask performance. Model comparison was performed using deviance information criterion (DIC), posterior predictive checks, plots of model fits, and model recovery simulations. Results showed that although learning tended to be monotonically decreasing and decelerating, and approaching an asymptote for all subtasks, there was substantial inconsistency in learning curves both at the group- and individual-levels. This inconsistency was most apparent when constraining both the rate and the ratio of learning to asymptote to be equal across subtasks, thereby giving learning curves only 1 parameter for scaling. The inclusion of 6 strategy covariates provided improved prediction of subtask performance capturing different subtask learning processes and subtask trade-offs. In addition, strategy use partially explained the inconsistency in subtask learning. Overall, the model provided a more nuanced representation of how complex tasks can be decomposed in terms of simpler learning mechanisms. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  1. Modeling abundance using hierarchical distance sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

    2016-01-01

    In this chapter, we provide an introduction to classical distance sampling ideas for point and line transect data, and for continuous and binned distance data. We introduce the conditional and the full likelihood, and we discuss Bayesian analysis of these models in BUGS using the idea of data augmentation, which we discussed in Chapter 7. We then extend the basic ideas to the problem of hierarchical distance sampling (HDS), where we have multiple point or transect sample units in space (or possibly in time). The benefit of HDS in practice is that it allows us to directly model spatial variation in population size among these sample units. This is a preeminent concern of most field studies that use distance sampling methods, but it is not a problem that has received much attention in the literature. We show how to analyze HDS models in both the unmarked package and in the BUGS language for point and line transects, and for continuous and binned distance data. We provide a case study of HDS applied to a survey of the island scrub-jay on Santa Cruz Island, California.

  2. A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Albert

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM, which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group

  3. A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Stefan; Schmack, Katharina; Sterzer, Philipp; Schneider, Gaby

    2017-11-01

    Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM), which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group differences to

  4. Hierarchical microcrack model for materials exemplified at enamel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özcoban, H; Yilmaz, E D; Schneider, G A

    2018-01-01

    This article investigates the mechanical properties of a material with hierarchically arranged microcracks. Hierarchically structured biomaterials such as enamel exhibit superior mechanical properties as being stiff and damage tolerant at the same time. The common mechanical explanation for this behavior is based on the hierarchically structured arrangement of hard minerals and soft organics and their cooperative deformation mechanisms. In situ mechanical experiments with mm-sized bovine enamel bending bars an scanning electron microscope reveal that enamel is able to withstand mechanical loading even if it contains microcracks on different lengths scales. To clarify this issue an analytical hierarchical microcrack model of non-interacting cracks is presented. The model predicts a decrease of the elastic modulus and the fracture strength with increasing levels of hierarchy. The fracture strain on the other hand may decrease or increase with the number of hierarchical levels, depending on the microcrack density. This simple hierarchical microcrack model is able to explain already published experiments with focused ion beam prepared μm-sized enamel cantilevers on different hierarchical levels. In addition it is shown that microcracking during loading in hierarchical materials may lead to substantial pseudoplastic behavior. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross- entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  6. The Revised Hierarchical Model: A critical review and assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Kroll, Judith F.; van Hell, Janet G.; Tokowicz, Natasha; Green, David W.

    2010-01-01

    Brysbaert and Duyck (2009) suggest that it is time to abandon the Revised Hierarchical Model (Kroll and Stewart, 1994) in favor of connectionist models such as BIA+ (Dijkstra and Van Heuven, 2002) that more accurately account for the recent evidence on nonselective access in bilingual word recognition. In this brief response, we first review the history of the Revised Hierarchical Model (RHM), consider the set of issues that it was proposed to address, and then evaluate the evidence that supp...

  7. Hierarchical regression analysis in structural Equation Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, P.F.

    1999-01-01

    In a hierarchical or fixed-order regression analysis, the independent variables are entered into the regression equation in a prespecified order. Such an analysis is often performed when the extra amount of variance accounted for in a dependent variable by a specific independent variable is the main

  8. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the space - time diffusion patterns of cholera epidemic in Kumasi, Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osei, Frank B.; Osei, F.B.; Duker, Alfred A.; Stein, A.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space-time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint

  9. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  10. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  11. Quantum Ising model on hierarchical structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhifang; Tao Ruibao.

    1989-11-01

    A quantum Ising chain with both the exchange couplings and the transverse fields arranged in a hierarchical way is considered. Exact analytical results for the critical line and energy gap are obtained. It is shown that when R 1 not= R 2 , where R 1 and R 2 are the hierarchical parameters for the exchange couplings and the transverse fields, respectively, the system undergoes a phase transition in a different universality class from the pure quantum Ising chain with R 1 =R 2 =1. On the other hand, when R 1 =R 2 =R, there exists a critical value R c dependent on the furcating number of the hierarchy. In case of R > R c , the system is shown to exhibit as Ising-like critical point with the critical behaviour the same as in the pure case, while for R c the system belongs to another universality class. (author). 19 refs, 2 figs

  12. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Logistic versus hierarchical modeling: an analysis of a statewide inpatient sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrescu, Roxana; Jen, Min-Hua; Bottle, Alex; Jarman, Brian; Aylin, Paul

    2011-09-01

    Although logistic regression is traditionally used to calculate hospital standardized mortality ratio (HSMR), it ignores the hierarchical structure of the data that can exist within a given database. Hierarchical models allow examination of the effect of data clustering on outcomes. Traditional logistic regression and random intercepts fixed slopes hierarchical models were fitted to a dataset of patients hospitalized between 2005 and 2007 in Massachusetts. We compared the observed to expected (O/E) in-hospital death ratios between the 2 modeling techniques, a restricted HSMR using only those diagnosis models that converged in both methods and a full hybrid HSMR using a combination of the hierarchical diagnosis models when they converge, plus the remaining diagnoses using standard logistic regression models. We restricted the analysis to the 36 diagnoses accounting for 80% of in-hospital deaths nationally, based on 1,043,813 admissions (59 hospitals). A failure of the hierarchical models to converge in 15 of 36 diagnosis groups hindered full HSMR comparisons. A restricted HSMR, derived from a dataset based on the 21 diagnosis groups that converged (552,933 admissions) showed very high correlation (Pearson r = 0.99). Both traditional logistic regression and hierarchical model identified 12 statistical outliers in common, 7 with high O/E values and 5 with low O/E values. In addition, the multilevel analysis identified 5 additional unique high outliers and 1 additional unique low outlier, and the conventional model identified 2 additional unique low outliers. Similar results were obtained from the 2 modeling techniques in terms of O/E ratios. However, because a hierarchical model is associated with convergence problems, traditional logistic regression remains our recommended procedure for computing HSMRs. Copyright © 2011 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Hierarchical shrinkage priors and model fitting for high-dimensional generalized linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Nengjun; Ma, Shuangge

    2012-11-26

    Abstract Genetic and other scientific studies routinely generate very many predictor variables, which can be naturally grouped, with predictors in the same groups being highly correlated. It is desirable to incorporate the hierarchical structure of the predictor variables into generalized linear models for simultaneous variable selection and coefficient estimation. We propose two prior distributions: hierarchical Cauchy and double-exponential distributions, on coefficients in generalized linear models. The hierarchical priors include both variable-specific and group-specific tuning parameters, thereby not only adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients and different groups but also providing a way to pool the information within groups. We fit generalized linear models with the proposed hierarchical priors by incorporating flexible expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms into the standard iteratively weighted least squares as implemented in the general statistical package R. The methods are illustrated with data from an experiment to identify genetic polymorphisms for survival of mice following infection with Listeria monocytogenes. The performance of the proposed procedures is further assessed via simulation studies. The methods are implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/).

  15. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

  16. Hierarchical models in ecology: confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and model selection using data cloning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponciano, José Miguel; Taper, Mark L; Dennis, Brian; Lele, Subhash R

    2009-02-01

    Hierarchical statistical models are increasingly being used to describe complex ecological processes. The data cloning (DC) method is a new general technique that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to compute maximum likelihood (ML) estimates along with their asymptotic variance estimates for hierarchical models. Despite its generality, the method has two inferential limitations. First, it only provides Wald-type confidence intervals, known to be inaccurate in small samples. Second, it only yields ML parameter estimates, but not the maximized likelihood values used for profile likelihood intervals, likelihood ratio hypothesis tests, and information-theoretic model selection. Here we describe how to overcome these inferential limitations with a computationally efficient method for calculating likelihood ratios via data cloning. The ability to calculate likelihood ratios allows one to do hypothesis tests, construct accurate confidence intervals and undertake information-based model selection with hierarchical models in a frequentist context. To demonstrate the use of these tools with complex ecological models, we reanalyze part of Gause's classic Paramecium data with state-space population models containing both environmental noise and sampling error. The analysis results include improved confidence intervals for parameters, a hypothesis test of laboratory replication, and a comparison of the Beverton-Holt and the Ricker growth forms based on a model selection index.

  17. Statistical Model for Content Extraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qureshi, Pir Abdul Rasool; Memon, Nasrullah

    2011-01-01

    We present a statistical model for content extraction from HTML documents. The model operates on Document Object Model (DOM) tree of the corresponding HTML document. It evaluates each tree node and associated statistical features to predict significance of the node towards overall content of the ...... also describe the significance of the model in the domain of counterterrorism and open source intelligence....

  18. Hierarchical Linear Modeling for Analysis of Ecological Momentary Assessment Data in Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terhorst, Lauren; Beck, Kelly Battle; McKeon, Ashlee B; Graham, Kristin M; Ye, Feifei; Shiffman, Saul

    2017-08-01

    Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) methods collect real-time data in real-world environments, which allow physical medicine and rehabilitation researchers to examine objective outcome data and reduces bias from retrospective recall. The statistical analysis of EMA data is directly related to the research question and the temporal design of the study. Hierarchical linear modeling, which accounts for multiple observations from the same participant, is a particularly useful approach to analyzing EMA data. The objective of this paper was to introduce the process of conducting hierarchical linear modeling analyses with EMA data. This is accomplished using exemplars from recent physical medicine and rehabilitation literature.

  19. The application of a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2005.09.070. Sahu S K and Bakar K S 2012 Hierarchical bayesian autore- gressive models for large space-time data with application to ozone concentration modeling; Appl. Stochastic Models. Bus. Ind. 28 395–415, doi: 10.1002/asmb.1951.

  20. Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models for the Analysis of Judge Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muckle, Timothy J.; Karabatsos, George

    2009-01-01

    It is known that the Rasch model is a special two-level hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM). This article demonstrates that the many-faceted Rasch model (MFRM) is also a special case of the two-level HGLM, with a random intercept representing examinee ability on a test, and fixed effects for the test items, judges, and possibly other…

  1. Analysis of longitudinal data using the hierarchical linear model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, T.A.B.

    1996-01-01

    The hierarchical linear model in a linear model with nested random coefficients, fruitfully used for multilevel research. A tutorial is presented on the use of this model for the analysis of longitudinal data, i.e., repeated data on the same subjects. An important advantage of this approach is that

  2. Robust Real-Time Music Transcription with a Compositional Hierarchical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesek, Matevž; Leonardis, Aleš; Marolt, Matija

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a new compositional hierarchical model for robust music transcription. Its main features are unsupervised learning of a hierarchical representation of input data, transparency, which enables insights into the learned representation, as well as robustness and speed which make it suitable for real-world and real-time use. The model consists of multiple layers, each composed of a number of parts. The hierarchical nature of the model corresponds well to hierarchical structures in music. The parts in lower layers correspond to low-level concepts (e.g. tone partials), while the parts in higher layers combine lower-level representations into more complex concepts (tones, chords). The layers are learned in an unsupervised manner from music signals. Parts in each layer are compositions of parts from previous layers based on statistical co-occurrences as the driving force of the learning process. In the paper, we present the model's structure and compare it to other hierarchical approaches in the field of music information retrieval. We evaluate the model's performance for the multiple fundamental frequency estimation. Finally, we elaborate on extensions of the model towards other music information retrieval tasks.

  3. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  4. Methods of statistical model estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbe, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Methods of Statistical Model Estimation examines the most important and popular methods used to estimate parameters for statistical models and provide informative model summary statistics. Designed for R users, the book is also ideal for anyone wanting to better understand the algorithms used for statistical model fitting. The text presents algorithms for the estimation of a variety of regression procedures using maximum likelihood estimation, iteratively reweighted least squares regression, the EM algorithm, and MCMC sampling. Fully developed, working R code is constructed for each method. Th

  5. The Revised Hierarchical Model: A critical review and assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroll, J.F.; Hell, J.G. van; Tokowicz, N.; Green, D.W.

    2010-01-01

    Brysbaert and Duyck (this issue) suggest that it is time to abandon the Revised Hierarchical Model (Kroll and Stewart, 1994) in favor of connectionist models such as BIA+ (Dijkstra and Van Heuven, 2002) that more accurately account for the recent evidence on non-selective access in bilingual word

  6. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics that was given by Haldane admits a 'statistical interaction' between distinguishable particles (multispecies statistics). For such statistics, thermodynamic quantities can be evaluated exactly; explicit expressions are presented here for cluster coefficients. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models of the Calogero-Sutherland type. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence to the higher-dimensional and the multispecies cases remain essentially open; however, our results provide some hints as to searches for the models in question

  7. Hierarchical Multiple Markov Chain Model for Unsupervised Texture Segmentation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Scarpa, G.; Gaetano, R.; Haindl, Michal; Zerubia, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 8 (2009), s. 1830-1843 ISSN 1057-7149 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0593 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 507752 - MUSCLE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Classification * texture analysis * segmentation * hierarchical image models * Markov process Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 2.848, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/RO/haindl-hierarchical multiple markov chain model for unsupervised texture segmentation.pdf

  8. Hierarchical graphs for rule-based modeling of biochemical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Bin

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In rule-based modeling, graphs are used to represent molecules: a colored vertex represents a component of a molecule, a vertex attribute represents the internal state of a component, and an edge represents a bond between components. Components of a molecule share the same color. Furthermore, graph-rewriting rules are used to represent molecular interactions. A rule that specifies addition (removal of an edge represents a class of association (dissociation reactions, and a rule that specifies a change of a vertex attribute represents a class of reactions that affect the internal state of a molecular component. A set of rules comprises an executable model that can be used to determine, through various means, the system-level dynamics of molecular interactions in a biochemical system. Results For purposes of model annotation, we propose the use of hierarchical graphs to represent structural relationships among components and subcomponents of molecules. We illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to naturally document the structural organization of the functional components and subcomponents of two proteins: the protein tyrosine kinase Lck and the T cell receptor (TCR complex. We also show that computational methods developed for regular graphs can be applied to hierarchical graphs. In particular, we describe a generalization of Nauty, a graph isomorphism and canonical labeling algorithm. The generalized version of the Nauty procedure, which we call HNauty, can be used to assign canonical labels to hierarchical graphs or more generally to graphs with multiple edge types. The difference between the Nauty and HNauty procedures is minor, but for completeness, we provide an explanation of the entire HNauty algorithm. Conclusions Hierarchical graphs provide more intuitive formal representations of proteins and other structured molecules with multiple functional components than do the regular graphs of current languages for

  9. Hierarchical graphs for rule-based modeling of biochemical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemons, Nathan W; Hu, Bin; Hlavacek, William S

    2011-02-02

    In rule-based modeling, graphs are used to represent molecules: a colored vertex represents a component of a molecule, a vertex attribute represents the internal state of a component, and an edge represents a bond between components. Components of a molecule share the same color. Furthermore, graph-rewriting rules are used to represent molecular interactions. A rule that specifies addition (removal) of an edge represents a class of association (dissociation) reactions, and a rule that specifies a change of a vertex attribute represents a class of reactions that affect the internal state of a molecular component. A set of rules comprises an executable model that can be used to determine, through various means, the system-level dynamics of molecular interactions in a biochemical system. For purposes of model annotation, we propose the use of hierarchical graphs to represent structural relationships among components and subcomponents of molecules. We illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to naturally document the structural organization of the functional components and subcomponents of two proteins: the protein tyrosine kinase Lck and the T cell receptor (TCR) complex. We also show that computational methods developed for regular graphs can be applied to hierarchical graphs. In particular, we describe a generalization of Nauty, a graph isomorphism and canonical labeling algorithm. The generalized version of the Nauty procedure, which we call HNauty, can be used to assign canonical labels to hierarchical graphs or more generally to graphs with multiple edge types. The difference between the Nauty and HNauty procedures is minor, but for completeness, we provide an explanation of the entire HNauty algorithm. Hierarchical graphs provide more intuitive formal representations of proteins and other structured molecules with multiple functional components than do the regular graphs of current languages for specifying rule-based models, such as the BioNetGen language

  10. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  11. MULTILEVEL RECURRENT MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL CONTROL OF COMPLEX REGIONAL SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey V. Masloboev

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The research goal and scope are development of methods and software for mathematical and computer modeling of the regional security information support systems as multilevel hierarchical systems. Such systems are characterized by loosely formalization, multiple-aspect of descendent system processes and their interconnectivity, high level dynamics and uncertainty. The research methodology is based on functional-target approach and principles of multilevel hierarchical system theory. The work considers analysis and structural-algorithmic synthesis problem-solving of the multilevel computer-aided systems intended for management and decision-making information support in the field of regional security. Main results. A hierarchical control multilevel model of regional socio-economic system complex security has been developed. The model is based on functional-target approach and provides both formal statement and solving, and practical implementation of the automated information system structure and control algorithms synthesis problems of regional security management optimal in terms of specified criteria. An approach for intralevel and interlevel coordination problem-solving in the multilevel hierarchical systems has been proposed on the basis of model application. The coordination is provided at the expense of interconnection requirements satisfaction between the functioning quality indexes (objective functions, which are optimized by the different elements of multilevel systems. That gives the possibility for sufficient coherence reaching of the local decisions, being made on the different control levels, under decentralized decision-making and external environment high dynamics. Recurrent model application provides security control mathematical models formation of regional socioeconomic systems, functioning under uncertainty. Practical relevance. The model implementation makes it possible to automate synthesis realization of

  12. Sensometrics: Thurstonian and Statistical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen

    This thesis is concerned with the development and bridging of Thurstonian and statistical models for sensory discrimination testing as applied in the scientific discipline of sensometrics. In sensory discrimination testing sensory differences between products are detected and quantified by the us...... of generalized linear mixed models, cumulative link models and cumulative link mixed models. The relation between the Wald, likelihood and score statistics is expanded upon using the shape of the (profile) likelihood function as common reference....

  13. Control of discrete event systems modeled as hierarchical state machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brave, Y.; Heymann, M.

    1991-01-01

    The authors examine a class of discrete event systems (DESs) modeled as asynchronous hierarchical state machines (AHSMs). For this class of DESs, they provide an efficient method for testing reachability, which is an essential step in many control synthesis procedures. This method utilizes the asynchronous nature and hierarchical structure of AHSMs, thereby illustrating the advantage of the AHSM representation as compared with its equivalent (flat) state machine representation. An application of the method is presented where an online minimally restrictive solution is proposed for the problem of maintaining a controlled AHSM within prescribed legal bounds.

  14. Statistical modeling for degradation data

    CERN Document Server

    Lio, Yuhlong; Ng, Hon; Tsai, Tzong-Ru

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on the statistical aspects of the analysis of degradation data. In recent years, degradation data analysis has come to play an increasingly important role in different disciplines such as reliability, public health sciences, and finance. For example, information on products’ reliability can be obtained by analyzing degradation data. In addition, statistical modeling and inference techniques have been developed on the basis of different degradation measures. The book brings together experts engaged in statistical modeling and inference, presenting and discussing important recent advances in degradation data analysis and related applications. The topics covered are timely and have considerable potential to impact both statistics and reliability engineering.

  15. Fukunaga-Koontz feature transformation for statistical structural damage detection and hierarchical neuro-fuzzy damage localisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoell, Simon; Omenzetter, Piotr

    2017-07-01

    Considering jointly damage sensitive features (DSFs) of signals recorded by multiple sensors, applying advanced transformations to these DSFs and assessing systematically their contribution to damage detectability and localisation can significantly enhance the performance of structural health monitoring systems. This philosophy is explored here for partial autocorrelation coefficients (PACCs) of acceleration responses. They are interrogated with the help of the linear discriminant analysis based on the Fukunaga-Koontz transformation using datasets of the healthy and selected reference damage states. Then, a simple but efficient fast forward selection procedure is applied to rank the DSF components with respect to statistical distance measures specialised for either damage detection or localisation. For the damage detection task, the optimal feature subsets are identified based on the statistical hypothesis testing. For damage localisation, a hierarchical neuro-fuzzy tool is developed that uses the DSF ranking to establish its own optimal architecture. The proposed approaches are evaluated experimentally on data from non-destructively simulated damage in a laboratory scale wind turbine blade. The results support our claim of being able to enhance damage detectability and localisation performance by transforming and optimally selecting DSFs. It is demonstrated that the optimally selected PACCs from multiple sensors or their Fukunaga-Koontz transformed versions can not only improve the detectability of damage via statistical hypothesis testing but also increase the accuracy of damage localisation when used as inputs into a hierarchical neuro-fuzzy network. Furthermore, the computational effort of employing these advanced soft computing models for damage localisation can be significantly reduced by using transformed DSFs.

  16. Statistical modelling with quantile functions

    CERN Document Server

    Gilchrist, Warren

    2000-01-01

    Galton used quantiles more than a hundred years ago in describing data. Tukey and Parzen used them in the 60s and 70s in describing populations. Since then, the authors of many papers, both theoretical and practical, have used various aspects of quantiles in their work. Until now, however, no one put all the ideas together to form what turns out to be a general approach to statistics.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions does just that. It systematically examines the entire process of statistical modelling, starting with using the quantile function to define continuous distributions. The author shows that by using this approach, it becomes possible to develop complex distributional models from simple components. A modelling kit can be developed that applies to the whole model - deterministic and stochastic components - and this kit operates by adding, multiplying, and transforming distributions rather than data.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions adds a new dimension to the practice of stati...

  17. DISSECTING MAGNETAR VARIABILITY WITH BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huppenkothen, Daniela; Elenbaas, Chris; Watts, Anna L.; Horst, Alexander J. van der [Anton Pannekoek Institute for Astronomy, University of Amsterdam, Postbus 94249, 1090 GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Brewer, Brendon J. [Department of Statistics, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142 (New Zealand); Hogg, David W. [Center for Data Science, New York University, 726 Broadway, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003 (United States); Murray, Iain [School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AB (United Kingdom); Frean, Marcus [School of Engineering and Computer Science, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand); Levin, Yuri [Monash Center for Astrophysics and School of Physics, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800 (Australia); Kouveliotou, Chryssa, E-mail: daniela.huppenkothen@nyu.edu [Astrophysics Office, ZP 12, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behavior, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favored models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here, we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture aftershocks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling augmented with reversible jumps between models with different numbers of parameters, we characterize the posterior distributions of the model parameters and the number of components per burst. We relate these model parameters to physical quantities in the system, and show for the first time that the variability within a burst does not conform to predictions from ideas of self-organized criticality. We also examine how well the properties of the spikes fit the predictions of simplified cascade models for the different trigger mechanisms.

  18. Hierarchical Structured Model for Nonlinear Dynamical Processes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mathematical representation of the process, in this context, is by a set of linear stochastic differential equations (SDE) with unique solutions. The problem of realization is that of constructing the dynamical system by looking at the problem of scientific model building. In model building, one must be able to calculate the ...

  19. 3D Segmentation of Rodent Brain Structures Using Hierarchical Shape Priors and Deformable Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaoting; Huang, Junzhou; Uzunbas, Mustafa; Shen, Tian; Delis, Foteini; Huang, Xiaolei; Volkow, Nora; Thanos, Panayotis; Metaxas, Dimitris N.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a method to segment multiple rodent brain structures simultaneously. This method combines deformable models and hierarchical shape priors within one framework. The deformation module employs both gradient and appearance information to generate image forces to deform the shape. The shape prior module uses Principal Component Analysis to hierarchically model the multiple structures at both global and local levels. At the global level, the statistics of relative positions among different structures are modeled. At the local level, the shape statistics within each structure is learned from training samples. Our segmentation method adaptively employs both priors to constrain the intermediate deformation result. This prior constraint improves the robustness of the model and benefits the segmentation accuracy. Another merit of our prior module is that the size of the training data can be small, because the shape prior module models each structure individually and combines them using global statistics. This scheme can preserve shape details better than directly applying PCA on all structures. We use this method to segment rodent brain structures, such as the cerebellum, the left and right striatum, and the left and right hippocampus. The experiments show that our method works effectively and this hierarchical prior improves the segmentation performance. PMID:22003750

  20. Maximum entropy approach to H -theory: Statistical mechanics of hierarchical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Giovani L.; Salazar, Domingos S. P.; Macêdo, A. M. S.

    2018-02-01

    A formalism, called H-theory, is applied to the problem of statistical equilibrium of a hierarchical complex system with multiple time and length scales. In this approach, the system is formally treated as being composed of a small subsystem—representing the region where the measurements are made—in contact with a set of "nested heat reservoirs" corresponding to the hierarchical structure of the system, where the temperatures of the reservoirs are allowed to fluctuate owing to the complex interactions between degrees of freedom at different scales. The probability distribution function (pdf) of the temperature of the reservoir at a given scale, conditioned on the temperature of the reservoir at the next largest scale in the hierarchy, is determined from a maximum entropy principle subject to appropriate constraints that describe the thermal equilibrium properties of the system. The marginal temperature distribution of the innermost reservoir is obtained by integrating over the conditional distributions of all larger scales, and the resulting pdf is written in analytical form in terms of certain special transcendental functions, known as the Fox H functions. The distribution of states of the small subsystem is then computed by averaging the quasiequilibrium Boltzmann distribution over the temperature of the innermost reservoir. This distribution can also be written in terms of H functions. The general family of distributions reported here recovers, as particular cases, the stationary distributions recently obtained by Macêdo et al. [Phys. Rev. E 95, 032315 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevE.95.032315] from a stochastic dynamical approach to the problem.

  1. Statistical validation of stochastic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, N.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Engineering Science and Analysis Div.; Barney, P.; Paez, T.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Experimental Structural Dynamics Dept.; Ferregut, C.; Perez, L. [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1996-12-31

    It is common practice in structural dynamics to develop mathematical models for system behavior, and the authors are now capable of developing stochastic models, i.e., models whose parameters are random variables. Such models have random characteristics that are meant to simulate the randomness in characteristics of experimentally observed systems. This paper suggests a formal statistical procedure for the validation of mathematical models of stochastic systems when data taken during operation of the stochastic system are available. The statistical characteristics of the experimental system are obtained using the bootstrap, a technique for the statistical analysis of non-Gaussian data. The authors propose a procedure to determine whether or not a mathematical model is an acceptable model of a stochastic system with regard to user-specified measures of system behavior. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of the technique.

  2. Petascale Hierarchical Modeling VIA Parallel Execution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelman, Andrew [Principal Investigator

    2014-04-14

    The research allows more effective model building. By allowing researchers to fit complex models to large datasets in a scalable manner, our algorithms and software enable more effective scientific research. In the new area of “big data,” it is often necessary to fit “big models” to adjust for systematic differences between sample and population. For this task, scalable and efficient model-fitting tools are needed, and these have been achieved with our new Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, the no-U-turn sampler, and our new C++ program, Stan. In layman’s terms, our research enables researchers to create improved mathematical modes for large and complex systems.

  3. An endogenous policy model of hierarchical government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazza, I.; van Winden, F.

    2008-01-01

    Endogenous policy models usually neglect that government policies are frequently the result of decisions taken at different tiers by different agents, each enjoying some degree of autonomy. In this paper, policies are the outcome of the choices made by two agents within a hierarchy. A legislator

  4. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...

  5. Non-hierarchical Structures: How to Model and Index Overlaps?

    OpenAIRE

    Hasibi, Faegheh; Bratsberg, Svein Erik

    2014-01-01

    Overlap is a common phenomenon seen when structural components of a digital object are neither disjoint nor nested inside each other. Overlapping components resist reduction to a structural hierarchy, and tree-based indexing and query processing techniques cannot be used for them. Our solution to this data modeling problem is TGSA (Tree-like Graph for Structural Annotations), a novel extension of the XML data model for non-hierarchical structures. We introduce an algorithm for constructing TG...

  6. A Hierarchical Visualization Analysis Model of Power Big Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongjie; Wang, Zheng; Hao, Yang

    2018-01-01

    Based on the conception of integrating VR scene and power big data analysis, a hierarchical visualization analysis model of power big data is proposed, in which levels are designed, targeting at different abstract modules like transaction, engine, computation, control and store. The regularly departed modules of power data storing, data mining and analysis, data visualization are integrated into one platform by this model. It provides a visual analysis solution for the power big data.

  7. Hierarchical, model-based risk management of critical infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baiardi, F. [Polo G.Marconi La Spezia, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita di Pisa, L.go B.Pontecorvo 3 56127, Pisa (Italy)], E-mail: f.baiardi@unipi.it; Telmon, C.; Sgandurra, D. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita di Pisa, L.go B.Pontecorvo 3 56127, Pisa (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    Risk management is a process that includes several steps, from vulnerability analysis to the formulation of a risk mitigation plan that selects countermeasures to be adopted. With reference to an information infrastructure, we present a risk management strategy that considers a sequence of hierarchical models, each describing dependencies among infrastructure components. A dependency exists anytime a security-related attribute of a component depends upon the attributes of other components. We discuss how this notion supports the formal definition of risk mitigation plan and the evaluation of the infrastructure robustness. A hierarchical relation exists among models that are analyzed because each model increases the level of details of some components in a previous one. Since components and dependencies are modeled through a hypergraph, to increase the model detail level, some hypergraph nodes are replaced by more and more detailed hypergraphs. We show how critical information for the assessment can be automatically deduced from the hypergraph and define conditions that determine cases where a hierarchical decomposition simplifies the assessment. In these cases, the assessment has to analyze the hypergraph that replaces the component rather than applying again all the analyses to a more detailed, and hence larger, hypergraph. We also show how the proposed framework supports the definition of a risk mitigation plan and discuss some indicators of the overall infrastructure robustness. Lastly, the development of tools to support the assessment is discussed.

  8. Hierarchical, model-based risk management of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baiardi, F.; Telmon, C.; Sgandurra, D.

    2009-01-01

    Risk management is a process that includes several steps, from vulnerability analysis to the formulation of a risk mitigation plan that selects countermeasures to be adopted. With reference to an information infrastructure, we present a risk management strategy that considers a sequence of hierarchical models, each describing dependencies among infrastructure components. A dependency exists anytime a security-related attribute of a component depends upon the attributes of other components. We discuss how this notion supports the formal definition of risk mitigation plan and the evaluation of the infrastructure robustness. A hierarchical relation exists among models that are analyzed because each model increases the level of details of some components in a previous one. Since components and dependencies are modeled through a hypergraph, to increase the model detail level, some hypergraph nodes are replaced by more and more detailed hypergraphs. We show how critical information for the assessment can be automatically deduced from the hypergraph and define conditions that determine cases where a hierarchical decomposition simplifies the assessment. In these cases, the assessment has to analyze the hypergraph that replaces the component rather than applying again all the analyses to a more detailed, and hence larger, hypergraph. We also show how the proposed framework supports the definition of a risk mitigation plan and discuss some indicators of the overall infrastructure robustness. Lastly, the development of tools to support the assessment is discussed.

  9. An accessible method for implementing hierarchical models with spatio-temporal abundance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Melvin B.; Koons, David N.

    2012-01-01

    A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, hierarchical statistical models remain somewhat difficult to use because of the necessary quantitative background needed to implement them, or because of the computational demands of using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate parameters. Fortunately, new tools have recently been developed that make it more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, ‘INLA’). We present a case study using two important game species in North America, the lesser and greater scaup, to demonstrate how INLA can be used to estimate the parameters in a hierarchical model that decouples observation error from process variation, and accounts for unknown sources of excess zeros as well as spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Ultimately, our goal was to make unbiased inference about spatial variation in population trends over time.

  10. Continuum damage modeling and simulation of hierarchical dental enamel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Songyun; Scheider, Ingo; Bargmann, Swantje

    2016-05-01

    Dental enamel exhibits high fracture toughness and stiffness due to a complex hierarchical and graded microstructure, optimally organized from nano- to macro-scale. In this study, a 3D representative volume element (RVE) model is adopted to study the deformation and damage behavior of the fibrous microstructure. A continuum damage mechanics model coupled to hyperelasticity is developed for modeling the initiation and evolution of damage in the mineral fibers as well as protein matrix. Moreover, debonding of the interface between mineral fiber and protein is captured by employing a cohesive zone model. The dependence of the failure mechanism on the aspect ratio of the mineral fibers is investigated. In addition, the effect of the interface strength on the damage behavior is studied with respect to geometric features of enamel. Further, the effect of an initial flaw on the overall mechanical properties is analyzed to understand the superior damage tolerance of dental enamel. The simulation results are validated by comparison to experimental data from micro-cantilever beam testing at two hierarchical levels. The transition of the failure mechanism at different hierarchical levels is also well reproduced in the simulations.

  11. Statistical Models for Social Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, Tom A. B.; Cook, KS; Massey, DS

    2011-01-01

    Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For

  12. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2005-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... (PDF) of turbulence driven short-term extreme wind shear events, conditioned on the mean wind speed, for an arbitrary recurrence period. The model is based on an asymptotic expansion, and only a few and easily accessible parameters are needed as input. The model of the extreme PDF is supplemented...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

  13. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2004-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... (PDF) of turbulence driven short-term extreme wind shear events, conditioned on the mean wind speed, for an arbitrary recurrence period. The model is based on an asymptotic expansion, and only a few and easily accessible parameters are needed as input. The model of the extreme PDF is supplemented...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...

  14. Hierarchical Heteroclinics in Dynamical Model of Cognitive Processes: Chunking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afraimovich, Valentin S.; Young, Todd R.; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.

    Combining the results of brain imaging and nonlinear dynamics provides a new hierarchical vision of brain network functionality that is helpful in understanding the relationship of the network to different mental tasks. Using these ideas it is possible to build adequate models for the description and prediction of different cognitive activities in which the number of variables is usually small enough for analysis. The dynamical images of different mental processes depend on their temporal organization and, as a rule, cannot be just simple attractors since cognition is characterized by transient dynamics. The mathematical image for a robust transient is a stable heteroclinic channel consisting of a chain of saddles connected by unstable separatrices. We focus here on hierarchical chunking dynamics that can represent several cognitive activities. Chunking is the dynamical phenomenon that means dividing a long information chain into shorter items. Chunking is known to be important in many processes of perception, learning, memory and cognition. We prove that in the phase space of the model that describes chunking there exists a new mathematical object — heteroclinic sequence of heteroclinic cycles — using the technique of slow-fast approximations. This new object serves as a skeleton of motions reflecting sequential features of hierarchical chunking dynamics and is an adequate image of the chunking processing.

  15. Learning optimized features for hierarchical models of invariant object recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wersing, Heiko; Körner, Edgar

    2003-07-01

    There is an ongoing debate over the capabilities of hierarchical neural feedforward architectures for performing real-world invariant object recognition. Although a variety of hierarchical models exists, appropriate supervised and unsupervised learning methods are still an issue of intense research. We propose a feedforward model for recognition that shares components like weight sharing, pooling stages, and competitive nonlinearities with earlier approaches but focuses on new methods for learning optimal feature-detecting cells in intermediate stages of the hierarchical network. We show that principles of sparse coding, which were previously mostly applied to the initial feature detection stages, can also be employed to obtain optimized intermediate complex features. We suggest a new approach to optimize the learning of sparse features under the constraints of a weight-sharing or convolutional architecture that uses pooling operations to achieve gradual invariance in the feature hierarchy. The approach explicitly enforces symmetry constraints like translation invariance on the feature set. This leads to a dimension reduction in the search space of optimal features and allows determining more efficiently the basis representatives, which achieve a sparse decomposition of the input. We analyze the quality of the learned feature representation by investigating the recognition performance of the resulting hierarchical network on object and face databases. We show that a hierarchy with features learned on a single object data set can also be applied to face recognition without parameter changes and is competitive with other recent machine learning recognition approaches. To investigate the effect of the interplay between sparse coding and processing nonlinearities, we also consider alternative feedforward pooling nonlinearities such as presynaptic maximum selection and sum-of-squares integration. The comparison shows that a combination of strong competitive

  16. Digging through model complexity: using hierarchical models to uncover evolutionary processes in the wild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buoro, M; Prévost, E; Gimenez, O

    2012-10-01

    The growing interest for studying questions in the wild requires acknowledging that eco-evolutionary processes are complex, hierarchically structured and often partially observed or with measurement error. These issues have long been ignored in evolutionary biology, which might have led to flawed inference when addressing evolutionary questions. Hierarchical modelling (HM) has been proposed as a generic statistical framework to deal with complexity in ecological data and account for uncertainty. However, to date, HM has seldom been used to investigate evolutionary mechanisms possibly underlying observed patterns. Here, we contend the HM approach offers a relevant approach for the study of eco-evolutionary processes in the wild by confronting formal theories to empirical data through proper statistical inference. Studying eco-evolutionary processes requires considering the complete and often complex life histories of organisms. We show how this can be achieved by combining sequentially all life-history components and all available sources of information through HM. We demonstrate how eco-evolutionary processes may be poorly inferred or even missed without using the full potential of HM. As a case study, we use the Atlantic salmon and data on wild marked juveniles. We assess a reaction norm for migration and two potential trade-offs for survival. Overall, HM has a great potential to address evolutionary questions and investigate important processes that could not previously be assessed in laboratory or short time-scale studies. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  17. A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosholm, Michael; Staghøj, Jonas; Svarer, Michael

    When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way  across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly  important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present...

  18. Textual information access statistical models

    CERN Document Server

    Gaussier, Eric

    2013-01-01

    This book presents statistical models that have recently been developed within several research communities to access information contained in text collections. The problems considered are linked to applications aiming at facilitating information access:- information extraction and retrieval;- text classification and clustering;- opinion mining;- comprehension aids (automatic summarization, machine translation, visualization).In order to give the reader as complete a description as possible, the focus is placed on the probability models used in the applications

  19. Statistical modelling in biostatistics and bioinformatics selected papers

    CERN Document Server

    Peng, Defen

    2014-01-01

    This book presents selected papers on statistical model development related mainly to the fields of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The coverage of the material falls squarely into the following categories: (a) Survival analysis and multivariate survival analysis, (b) Time series and longitudinal data analysis, (c) Statistical model development and (d) Applied statistical modelling. Innovations in statistical modelling are presented throughout each of the four areas, with some intriguing new ideas on hierarchical generalized non-linear models and on frailty models with structural dispersion, just to mention two examples. The contributors include distinguished international statisticians such as Philip Hougaard, John Hinde, Il Do Ha, Roger Payne and Alessandra Durio, among others, as well as promising newcomers. Some of the contributions have come from researchers working in the BIO-SI research programme on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, centred on the Universities of Limerick and Galway in Ireland and fu...

  20. Unsupervised Modeling of Objects and Their Hierarchical Contextual Interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsuhan Chen

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A successful representation of objects in literature is as a collection of patches, or parts, with a certain appearance and position. The relative locations of the different parts of an object are constrained by the geometry of the object. Going beyond a single object, consider a collection of images of a particular scene category containing multiple (recurring objects. The parts belonging to different objects are not constrained by such a geometry. However, the objects themselves, arguably due to their semantic relationships, demonstrate a pattern in their relative locations. Hence, analyzing the interactions among the parts across the collection of images can allow for extraction of the foreground objects, and analyzing the interactions among these objects can allow for a semantically meaningful grouping of these objects, which characterizes the entire scene. These groupings are typically hierarchical. We introduce hierarchical semantics of objects (hSO that captures this hierarchical grouping. We propose an approach for the unsupervised learning of the hSO from a collection of images of a particular scene. We also demonstrate the use of the hSO in providing context for enhanced object localization in the presence of significant occlusions, and show its superior performance over a fully connected graphical model for the same task.

  1. Analysis of hierarchical biomechanical data structures using mixed-effects models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirrell, Timothy F; Rademaker, Alfred W; Lieber, Richard L

    2018-03-01

    Rigorous statistical analysis of biomechanical data is required to understand tissue properties. In biomechanics, samples are often obtained from multiple biopsies in the same individual, multiple samples tested per biopsy, and multiple tests performed per sample. The easiest way to analyze this hierarchical design is to simply calculate the grand mean of all samples tested. However, this may lead to incorrect inferences. In this report, three different analytical approaches are described with respect to the analysis of hierarchical data obtained from muscle biopsies. Each method was used to analyze an actual experimental data set obtained from muscle biopsies of three different muscles in the human forearm. The results illustrate the conditions under which mixed-models or simple models are acceptable for analysis of these types of data. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Detecting Hierarchical Structure in Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2012-01-01

    . On synthetic and real data we demonstrate that our model can detect hierarchical structure leading to better link-prediction than competing models. Our model can be used to detect if a network exhibits hierarchical structure, thereby leading to a better comprehension and statistical account the network....

  3. New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

  4. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  5. Improved model for statistical alignment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miklos, I.; Toroczkai, Z. (Zoltan)

    2001-01-01

    The statistical approach to molecular sequence evolution involves the stochastic modeling of the substitution, insertion and deletion processes. Substitution has been modeled in a reliable way for more than three decades by using finite Markov-processes. Insertion and deletion, however, seem to be more difficult to model, and thc recent approaches cannot acceptably deal with multiple insertions and deletions. A new method based on a generating function approach is introduced to describe the multiple insertion process. The presented algorithm computes the approximate joint probability of two sequences in 0(13) running time where 1 is the geometric mean of the sequence lengths.

  6. A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bradford, Mark A.; Veen, G. F.; Bonis, Anne

    2017-01-01

    to predictions from the hierarchical model, decomposer (microbial) biomass strongly regulates decomposition at regional scales. Furthermore, the size of the microbial biomass dictates the absolute change in decomposition rates with changing climate variables. Our findings suggest the need for revision......Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls...... regulating the rate at which plant biomass is decomposed into products such as CO2. Here we test underlying assumptions of the dominant conceptual model of litter decomposition. The model posits that a primary control on the rate of decomposition at regional to global scales is climate (temperature...

  7. Evaluation of anthelmintic resistance in livestock parasites using observational data and hierarchical models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Martin Krarup; Vidyashankar, Anand N.; Hanlon, Bret

    contribute to cause this high variability and these must be taken into account to accurately identify a reduction in anthelmintic efficacy. To address this problem, we developed a hierarchical statistical model for analysis of FECRT data from multiple farms. The model includes animal effect and farm clusters...... = 200 eggs per gram (EPG) and were treated. Post treatment samples and information on age, gender and farm zip code were collected for each horse. In addition, individual coprocultureswere performed on all pretreatment fecal samples to determine the presence of Strongylus vulgaris, with 31farms (48...

  8. Hierarchical population model with a carrying capacity distribution for bacterial biofilms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indekeu, J. O.; Sznajd-Weron, K.

    2003-12-01

    In order to describe biological colonies with a conspicuous hierarchical structure, a time- and space-discrete model for the growth of a rapidly saturating local biological population N(x,t) is derived from a hierarchical random deposition process previously studied in statistical physics. Two biologically relevant parameters, the probabilities of birth, B, and of death, D, determine the carrying capacity K. Due to the randomness the population depends strongly on position x and there is a distribution of carrying capacities, Π(K). This distribution has self-similar character owing to the exponential slowing down of the growth, assumed in this hierarchical model. The most probable carrying capacity and its probability are studied as a function of B and D. The effective growth rate decreases with time, roughly as in a Verhulst process. The model is possibly applicable, for example, to bacteria forming a “towering pillar” biofilm, a structure poorly described by standard Eden or diffusion-limited-aggregation models. The bacteria divide on randomly distributed nutrient-rich regions and are exposed to a random local bactericidal agent (antibiotic spray). A gradual overall temperature or chemical change away from optimal growth conditions reduces bacterial reproduction, while biofilm development degrades antimicrobial susceptibility, causing stagnation into a stationary state.

  9. The Realized Hierarchical Archimedean Copula in Risk Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ostap Okhrin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the concept of the realized hierarchical Archimedean copula (rHAC. The proposed approach inherits the ability of the copula to capture the dependencies among financial time series, and combines it with additional information contained in high-frequency data. The considered model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and is able to accurately predict high-dimensional distributions. This flexibility is obtained by using a hierarchical structure in the copula. The time variability of the model is provided by daily forecasts of the realized correlation matrix, which is used to estimate the structure and the parameters of the rHAC. Extensive simulation studies show the validity of the estimator based on this realized correlation matrix, and its performance, in comparison to the benchmark models. The application of the estimator to one-day-ahead Value at Risk (VaR prediction using high-frequency data exhibits good forecasting properties for a multivariate portfolio.

  10. A hierarchical distributed control model for coordinating intelligent systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Richard M.

    1991-01-01

    A hierarchical distributed control (HDC) model for coordinating cooperative problem-solving among intelligent systems is described. The model was implemented using SOCIAL, an innovative object-oriented tool for integrating heterogeneous, distributed software systems. SOCIAL embeds applications in 'wrapper' objects called Agents, which supply predefined capabilities for distributed communication, control, data specification, and translation. The HDC model is realized in SOCIAL as a 'Manager'Agent that coordinates interactions among application Agents. The HDC Manager: indexes the capabilities of application Agents; routes request messages to suitable server Agents; and stores results in a commonly accessible 'Bulletin-Board'. This centralized control model is illustrated in a fault diagnosis application for launch operations support of the Space Shuttle fleet at NASA, Kennedy Space Center.

  11. A hierarchical model of the evolution of human brain specializations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, H. Clark

    2012-01-01

    The study of information-processing adaptations in the brain is controversial, in part because of disputes about the form such adaptations might take. Many psychologists assume that adaptations come in two kinds, specialized and general-purpose. Specialized mechanisms are typically thought of as innate, domain-specific, and isolated from other brain systems, whereas generalized mechanisms are developmentally plastic, domain-general, and interactive. However, if brain mechanisms evolve through processes of descent with modification, they are likely to be heterogeneous, rather than coming in just two kinds. They are likely to be hierarchically organized, with some design features widely shared across brain systems and others specific to particular processes. Also, they are likely to be largely developmentally plastic and interactive with other brain systems, rather than canalized and isolated. This article presents a hierarchical model of brain specialization, reviewing evidence for the model from evolutionary developmental biology, genetics, brain mapping, and comparative studies. Implications for the search for uniquely human traits are discussed, along with ways in which conventional views of modularity in psychology may need to be revised. PMID:22723350

  12. Ising model with long range correlated disorder on hierarchical lattices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Roberto F. S.; Cason, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    A next-neighbor Ising model with disordered but long range correlated coupling constants is investigated. The model is built on a hierarchical lattice and the correlation strength depends on a tuning parameter α . The results are obtained within a transfer-matrix framework, which allows for the evaluation of the properties of individual samples. Collective behavior is computed by averaging over a large number of independent realizations. The dependence of the thermodynamic and magnetic functions with respect to the temperature is investigated for each value of α . Phase diagrams in the (α,T) plane are constructed for two distinct versions of the model, indicating the existence of regions of paramagnetic and ordered phases. Critical values αc , below which the system always assumes the paramagnetic phase, are found for both versions.

  13. Hierarchical multiscale model for biomechanics analysis of microfilament networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tong; Gu, Y. T.; Feng, Xi-Qiao; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.; Oloyede, Adekunle

    2013-05-01

    The mechanisms of force generation and transference via microfilament networks are crucial to the understandings of mechanobiology of cellular processes in living cells. However, there exists an enormous challenge for all-atom physics simulation of real size microfilament networks due to scale limitation of molecular simulation techniques. Following biophysical investigations of constitutive relations between adjacent globular actin monomers on filamentous actin, a hierarchical multiscale model was developed to investigate the biomechanical properties of microfilament networks. This model was validated by previous experimental studies of axial tension and transverse vibration of single F-actin. The biomechanics of microfilament networks can be investigated at the scale of real eukaryotic cell size (10 μm). This multiscale approach provides a powerful modeling tool which can contribute to the understandings of actin-related cellular processes in living cells.

  14. Space-time adaptive hierarchical model reduction for parabolic equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotto, Simona; Zilio, Alessandro

    Surrogate solutions and surrogate models for complex problems in many fields of science and engineering represent an important recent research line towards the construction of the best trade-off between modeling reliability and computational efficiency. Among surrogate models, hierarchical model (HiMod) reduction provides an effective approach for phenomena characterized by a dominant direction in their dynamics. HiMod approach obtains 1D models naturally enhanced by the inclusion of the effect of the transverse dynamics. HiMod reduction couples a finite element approximation along the mainstream with a locally tunable modal representation of the transverse dynamics. In particular, we focus on the pointwise HiMod reduction strategy, where the modal tuning is performed on each finite element node. We formalize the pointwise HiMod approach in an unsteady setting, by resorting to a model discontinuous in time, continuous and hierarchically reduced in space (c[M([Formula: see text])G( s )]-dG( q ) approximation). The selection of the modal distribution and of the space-time discretization is automatically performed via an adaptive procedure based on an a posteriori analysis of the global error. The final outcome of this procedure is a table, named HiMod lookup diagram , that sets the time partition and, for each time interval, the corresponding 1D finite element mesh together with the associated modal distribution. The results of the numerical verification confirm the robustness of the proposed adaptive procedure in terms of accuracy, sensitivity with respect to the goal quantity and the boundary conditions, and the computational saving. Finally, the validation results in the groundwater experimental setting are promising. The extension of the HiMod reduction to an unsteady framework represents a crucial step with a view to practical engineering applications. Moreover, the results of the validation phase confirm that HiMod approximation is a viable approach.

  15. Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Regions across the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashuba, Roxolana; Cha, YoonKyung; Alameddine, Ibrahim; Lee, Boknam; Cuffney, Thomas F.

    2010-01-01

    Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization

  16. A hierarchical lattice spring model to simulate the mechanics of 2-D materials-based composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas eBrely

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In the field of engineering materials, strength and toughness are typically two mutually exclusive properties. Structural biological materials such as bone, tendon or dentin have resolved this conflict and show unprecedented damage tolerance, toughness and strength levels. The common feature of these materials is their hierarchical heterogeneous structure, which contributes to increased energy dissipation before failure occurring at different scale levels. These structural properties are the key to exceptional bioinspired material mechanical properties, in particular for nanocomposites. Here, we develop a numerical model in order to simulate the mechanisms involved in damage progression and energy dissipation at different size scales in nano- and macro-composites, which depend both on the heterogeneity of the material and on the type of hierarchical structure. Both these aspects have been incorporated into a 2-dimensional model based on a Lattice Spring Model, accounting for geometrical nonlinearities and including statistically-based fracture phenomena. The model has been validated by comparing numerical results to continuum and fracture mechanics results as well as finite elements simulations, and then employed to study how structural aspects impact on hierarchical composite material properties. Results obtained with the numerical code highlight the dependence of stress distributions on matrix properties and reinforcement dispersion, geometry and properties, and how failure of sacrificial elements is directly involved in the damage tolerance of the material. Thanks to the rapidly developing field of nanocomposite manufacture, it is already possible to artificially create materials with multi-scale hierarchical reinforcements. The developed code could be a valuable support in the design and optimization of these advanced materials, drawing inspiration and going beyond biological materials with exceptional mechanical properties.

  17. Modeling evolutionary dynamics of epigenetic mutations in hierarchically organized tumors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Sottoriva

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The cancer stem cell (CSC concept is a highly debated topic in cancer research. While experimental evidence in favor of the cancer stem cell theory is apparently abundant, the results are often criticized as being difficult to interpret. An important reason for this is that most experimental data that support this model rely on transplantation studies. In this study we use a novel cellular Potts model to elucidate the dynamics of established malignancies that are driven by a small subset of CSCs. Our results demonstrate that epigenetic mutations that occur during mitosis display highly altered dynamics in CSC-driven malignancies compared to a classical, non-hierarchical model of growth. In particular, the heterogeneity observed in CSC-driven tumors is considerably higher. We speculate that this feature could be used in combination with epigenetic (methylation sequencing studies of human malignancies to prove or refute the CSC hypothesis in established tumors without the need for transplantation. Moreover our tumor growth simulations indicate that CSC-driven tumors display evolutionary features that can be considered beneficial during tumor progression. Besides an increased heterogeneity they also exhibit properties that allow the escape of clones from local fitness peaks. This leads to more aggressive phenotypes in the long run and makes the neoplasm more adaptable to stringent selective forces such as cancer treatment. Indeed when therapy is applied the clone landscape of the regrown tumor is more aggressive with respect to the primary tumor, whereas the classical model demonstrated similar patterns before and after therapy. Understanding these often counter-intuitive fundamental properties of (non-hierarchically organized malignancies is a crucial step in validating the CSC concept as well as providing insight into the therapeutical consequences of this model.

  18. Tools for predicting rainfall from lightning records: events identification and rain prediction using a Bayesian hierarchical model

    OpenAIRE

    Di Giuseppe, Edmondo; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Esposito, Stanislao

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new statistical protocol for the estimation of precipitation using lightning data. We first identify rainy events using a scan statistics, then we estimate Rainfall Lighting Ratio (RLR) to convert lightning number into rain volume given the storm intensity. Then we build a hierarchical Bayesian model aiming at the prediction of 15- and 30-minutes cumulated precipitation at unobserved locations and time using information on lightning in the same area. More specifically, we build a...

  19. Hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for Sengan region in Japan using multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical interpolation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jinyong; Balasingham, P.; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Kulatilake, Pinnaduwa H. S. W.

    2004-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories, under contract to Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan (NUMO), is performing research on regional classification of given sites in Japan with respect to potential volcanic disruption using multivariate statistics and geo-statistical interpolation techniques. This report provides results obtained for hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for the Sengan region in Japan by applying multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical interpolation techniques on the geologic data provided by NUMO. A workshop report produced in September 2003 by Sandia National Laboratories (Arnold et al., 2003) on volcanism lists a set of most important geologic variables as well as some secondary information related to volcanism. Geologic data extracted for the Sengan region in Japan from the data provided by NUMO revealed that data are not available at the same locations for all the important geologic variables. In other words, the geologic variable vectors were found to be incomplete spatially. However, it is necessary to have complete geologic variable vectors to perform multivariate statistical analyses. As a first step towards constructing complete geologic variable vectors, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone 54 projected coordinate system and a 1 km square regular grid system were selected. The data available for each geologic variable on a geographic coordinate system were transferred to the aforementioned grid system. Also the recorded data on volcanic activity for Sengan region were produced on the same grid system. Each geologic variable map was compared with the recorded volcanic activity map to determine the geologic variables that are most important for volcanism. In the regionalized classification procedure, this step is known as the variable selection step. The following variables were determined as most important for volcanism: geothermal gradient, groundwater temperature, heat discharge, groundwater

  20. Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...

  1. Tractography segmentation using a hierarchical Dirichlet processes mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaogang; Grimson, W Eric L; Westin, Carl-Fredrik

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric Bayesian framework to cluster white matter fiber tracts into bundles using a hierarchical Dirichlet processes mixture (HDPM) model. The number of clusters is automatically learned driven by data with a Dirichlet process (DP) prior instead of being manually specified. After the models of bundles have been learned from training data without supervision, they can be used as priors to cluster/classify fibers of new subjects for comparison across subjects. When clustering fibers of new subjects, new clusters can be created for structures not observed in the training data. Our approach does not require computing pairwise distances between fibers and can cluster a huge set of fibers across multiple subjects. We present results on several data sets, the largest of which has more than 120,000 fibers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. A Bayesian hierarchical model for climate change detection and attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzfuss, Matthias; Hammerling, Dorit; Smith, Richard L.

    2017-06-01

    Regression-based detection and attribution methods continue to take a central role in the study of climate change and its causes. Here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical approach to this problem, which allows us to address several open methodological questions. Specifically, we take into account the uncertainties in the true temperature change due to imperfect measurements, the uncertainty in the true climate signal under different forcing scenarios due to the availability of only a small number of climate model simulations, and the uncertainty associated with estimating the climate variability covariance matrix, including the truncation of the number of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in this covariance matrix. We apply Bayesian model averaging to assign optimal probabilistic weights to different possible truncations and incorporate all uncertainties into the inference on the regression coefficients. We provide an efficient implementation of our method in a software package and illustrate its use with a realistic application.

  3. Nested-hierarchical scene models and image segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodcock, C.; Harward, V. J.

    1992-01-01

    An improved model of scenes for image analysis purposes, a nested-hierarchical approach which explicitly acknowledges multiple scales of objects or categories of objects, is presented. A multiple-pass, region-based segmentation algorithm improves the segmentation of images from scenes better modeled as a nested hierarchy. A multiple-pass approach allows slow and careful growth of regions while interregion distances are below a global threshold. Past the global threshold, a minimum region size parameter forces development of regions in areas of high local variance. Maximum and viable region size parameters limit the development of undesirably large regions. Application of the segmentation algorithm for forest stand delineation in TM imagery yields regions corresponding to identifiable features in the landscape. The use of a local variance, adaptive-window texture channel in conjunction with spectral bands improves the ability to define regions corresponding to sparsely stocked forest stands which have high internal variance.

  4. Limited-information goodness-of-fit testing of hierarchical item factor models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Li; Hansen, Mark

    2013-05-01

    In applications of item response theory, assessment of model fit is a critical issue. Recently, limited-information goodness-of-fit testing has received increased attention in the psychometrics literature. In contrast to full-information test statistics such as Pearson's X(2) or the likelihood ratio G(2) , these limited-information tests utilize lower-order marginal tables rather than the full contingency table. A notable example is Maydeu-Olivares and colleagues'M2 family of statistics based on univariate and bivariate margins. When the contingency table is sparse, tests based on M2 retain better Type I error rate control than the full-information tests and can be more powerful. While in principle the M2 statistic can be extended to test hierarchical multidimensional item factor models (e.g., bifactor and testlet models), the computation is non-trivial. To obtain M2 , a researcher often has to obtain (many thousands of) marginal probabilities, derivatives, and weights. Each of these must be approximated with high-dimensional numerical integration. We propose a dimension reduction method that can take advantage of the hierarchical factor structure so that the integrals can be approximated far more efficiently. We also propose a new test statistic that can be substantially better calibrated and more powerful than the original M2 statistic when the test is long and the items are polytomous. We use simulations to demonstrate the performance of our new methods and illustrate their effectiveness with applications to real data. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Hierarchical spatial models for predicting pygmy rabbit distribution and relative abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, T.L.; Odei, J.B.; Hooten, M.B.; Edwards, T.C.

    2010-01-01

    Conservationists routinely use species distribution models to plan conservation, restoration and development actions, while ecologists use them to infer process from pattern. These models tend to work well for common or easily observable species, but are of limited utility for rare and cryptic species. This may be because honest accounting of known observation bias and spatial autocorrelation are rarely included, thereby limiting statistical inference of resulting distribution maps. We specified and implemented a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model for a cryptic mammal species (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis). Our approach used two levels of indirect sign that are naturally hierarchical (burrows and faecal pellets) to build a model that allows for inference on regression coefficients as well as spatially explicit model parameters. We also produced maps of rabbit distribution (occupied burrows) and relative abundance (number of burrows expected to be occupied by pygmy rabbits). The model demonstrated statistically rigorous spatial prediction by including spatial autocorrelation and measurement uncertainty. We demonstrated flexibility of our modelling framework by depicting probabilistic distribution predictions using different assumptions of pygmy rabbit habitat requirements. Spatial representations of the variance of posterior predictive distributions were obtained to evaluate heterogeneity in model fit across the spatial domain. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to evaluate the overall model fit. Synthesis and applications. Our method draws on the strengths of previous work, thereby bridging and extending two active areas of ecological research: species distribution models and multi-state occupancy modelling. Our framework can be extended to encompass both larger extents and other species for which direct estimation of abundance is difficult. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

  6. Hierarchical linear modeling of longitudinal pedigree data for genetic association analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Qihua; B Hjelmborg, Jacob V; Thomassen, Mads

    2014-01-01

    on the mean level of a phenotype, they are not sufficiently straightforward to handle the kinship correlation on the time-dependent trajectories of a phenotype. We introduce a 2-level hierarchical linear model to separately assess the genetic associations with the mean level and the rate of change......-effect models to explicitly model the genetic relationship. These have proved to be an efficient way of dealing with sample clustering in pedigree data. Although current algorithms implemented in popular statistical packages are useful for adjusting relatedness in the mixed modeling of genetic effects...... associated with blood pressure with estimated inflation factors of 0.99, suggesting that our modeling of random effects efficiently handles the genetic relatedness in pedigrees. Application to simulated data captures important variants specified in the simulation. Our results show that the method is useful...

  7. HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas V Wiecki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on reaction times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of reaction time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model, which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject / condition than non-hierarchical method, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g. fMRI influence decision making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of drift-diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the chi-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs

  8. Fast and Accurate Circuit Design Automation through Hierarchical Model Switching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, Linh; Tagkopoulos, Ilias

    2015-08-21

    In computer-aided biological design, the trifecta of characterized part libraries, accurate models and optimal design parameters is crucial for producing reliable designs. As the number of parts and model complexity increase, however, it becomes exponentially more difficult for any optimization method to search the solution space, hence creating a trade-off that hampers efficient design. To address this issue, we present a hierarchical computer-aided design architecture that uses a two-step approach for biological design. First, a simple model of low computational complexity is used to predict circuit behavior and assess candidate circuit branches through branch-and-bound methods. Then, a complex, nonlinear circuit model is used for a fine-grained search of the reduced solution space, thus achieving more accurate results. Evaluation with a benchmark of 11 circuits and a library of 102 experimental designs with known characterization parameters demonstrates a speed-up of 3 orders of magnitude when compared to other design methods that provide optimality guarantees.

  9. Hierarchical modeling and its numerical implementation for layered thin elastic structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Jin-Rae [Hongik University, Sejong (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-15

    Thin elastic structures such as beam- and plate-like structures and laminates are characterized by the small thickness, which lead to classical plate and laminate theories in which the displacement fields through the thickness are assumed linear or higher-order polynomials. These classical theories are either insufficient to represent the complex stress variation through the thickness or may encounter the accuracy-computational cost dilemma. In order to overcome the inherent problem of classical theories, the concept of hierarchical modeling has been emerged. In the hierarchical modeling, the hierarchical models with different model levels are selected and combined within a structure domain, in order to make the modeling error be distributed as uniformly as possible throughout the problem domain. The purpose of current study is to explore the potential of hierarchical modeling for the effective numerical analysis of layered structures such as laminated composite. For this goal, the hierarchical models are constructed and the hierarchical modeling is implemented by selectively adjusting the level of hierarchical models. As well, the major characteristics of hierarchical models are investigated through the numerical experiments.

  10. Statistical Analysis by Statistical Physics Model for the STOCK Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tiansong; Wang, Jun; Fan, Bingli

    A new stochastic stock price model of stock markets based on the contact process of the statistical physics systems is presented in this paper, where the contact model is a continuous time Markov process, one interpretation of this model is as a model for the spread of an infection. Through this model, the statistical properties of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) are studied. In the present paper, the data of SSE Composite Index and the data of SZSE Component Index are analyzed, and the corresponding simulation is made by the computer computation. Further, we investigate the statistical properties, fat-tail phenomena, the power-law distributions, and the long memory of returns for these indices. The techniques of skewness-kurtosis test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and R/S analysis are applied to study the fluctuation characters of the stock price returns.

  11. Empirical Bayes ranking and selection methods via semiparametric hierarchical mixture models in microarray studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noma, Hisashi; Matsui, Shigeyuki

    2013-05-20

    The main purpose of microarray studies is screening of differentially expressed genes as candidates for further investigation. Because of limited resources in this stage, prioritizing genes are relevant statistical tasks in microarray studies. For effective gene selections, parametric empirical Bayes methods for ranking and selection of genes with largest effect sizes have been proposed (Noma et al., 2010; Biostatistics 11: 281-289). The hierarchical mixture model incorporates the differential and non-differential components and allows information borrowing across differential genes with separation from nuisance, non-differential genes. In this article, we develop empirical Bayes ranking methods via a semiparametric hierarchical mixture model. A nonparametric prior distribution, rather than parametric prior distributions, for effect sizes is specified and estimated using the "smoothing by roughening" approach of Laird and Louis (1991; Computational statistics and data analysis 12: 27-37). We present applications to childhood and infant leukemia clinical studies with microarrays for exploring genes related to prognosis or disease progression. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Distinguishing between hierarchical and lopsided SO(10) models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rastogi, Parul

    2005-01-01

    A comparative study of two predictive SO(10) models, namely, the BPW model (proposed by Babu, Pati and Wilczek) and the AB model (proposed by Albright and Barr) is done based on their predictions regarding CP and flavor violations. There is a significant difference in the structure of the fermion mass matrices in the two models (which are hierarchical for the BPW case and lopsided for the AB model) which gives rise to different CP and flavor violating effects. We include both standard model (SM) and supersymmetric (SUSY) contributions to these processes. Assuming flavor universality of SUSY-breaking parameters at a messenger scale M* > or approx. M GUT , it has been shown that renormalization group based post-GUT (grand unified theory) physics gives rise to large CP and flavor violations. While these effects were calculated for the BPW model recently, this is the first time (to our knowledge) that post-GUT contributions have been included for the AB model. The values of Δm K , ε K , Δm B d and S(B d →J/ψK S ) are found, in both models, to be close to SM predictions, in good agreement with data. Both models predict that S(B d →φK S ) should lie in the range +0.65-0.74, close to the SM prediction and that the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the neutron ≅(fewx10 -26 )e-cm, which should be observed in upcoming experiments. The lepton sector brings out marked differences between the two models. It is found that Br(μ→eγ) in the AB model is generically much larger than that in the BPW model, being consistent with the experimental limit only with a rather heavy SUSY spectrum with (m o ,m 1/2 )∼(1000,1000) GeV. The BPW model, on the other hand, is consistent with the SUSY spectrum being as light as (m o ,m 1/2 )∼(600,300) GeV. Another distinction arises in the prediction for the EDM of the electron. In the AB model d e should lie in the range 10 -27 -10 -28 e-cm, and should be observed by forthcoming experiments. The BPW model gives d e to be typically

  13. A hierarchical probabilistic model for rapid object categorization in natural scenes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofu He

    Full Text Available Humans can categorize objects in complex natural scenes within 100-150 ms. This amazing ability of rapid categorization has motivated many computational models. Most of these models require extensive training to obtain a decision boundary in a very high dimensional (e.g., ∼6,000 in a leading model feature space and often categorize objects in natural scenes by categorizing the context that co-occurs with objects when objects do not occupy large portions of the scenes. It is thus unclear how humans achieve rapid scene categorization.To address this issue, we developed a hierarchical probabilistic model for rapid object categorization in natural scenes. In this model, a natural object category is represented by a coarse hierarchical probability distribution (PD, which includes PDs of object geometry and spatial configuration of object parts. Object parts are encoded by PDs of a set of natural object structures, each of which is a concatenation of local object features. Rapid categorization is performed as statistical inference. Since the model uses a very small number (∼100 of structures for even complex object categories such as animals and cars, it requires little training and is robust in the presence of large variations within object categories and in their occurrences in natural scenes. Remarkably, we found that the model categorized animals in natural scenes and cars in street scenes with a near human-level performance. We also found that the model located animals and cars in natural scenes, thus overcoming a flaw in many other models which is to categorize objects in natural context by categorizing contextual features. These results suggest that coarse PDs of object categories based on natural object structures and statistical operations on these PDs may underlie the human ability to rapidly categorize scenes.

  14. Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose

    2010-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

  15. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Plug-and-Play Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    This chapter deals with hierarchical model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierarchical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonom......This chapter deals with hierarchical model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierarchical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level...

  16. A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Bal

    Full Text Available Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i an emotive simulated example, ii application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife.

  17. Hierarchical modeling for rare event detection and cell subset alignment across flow cytometry samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cron, Andrew; Gouttefangeas, Cécile; Frelinger, Jacob; Lin, Lin; Singh, Satwinder K; Britten, Cedrik M; Welters, Marij J P; van der Burg, Sjoerd H; West, Mike; Chan, Cliburn

    2013-01-01

    Flow cytometry is the prototypical assay for multi-parameter single cell analysis, and is essential in vaccine and biomarker research for the enumeration of antigen-specific lymphocytes that are often found in extremely low frequencies (0.1% or less). Standard analysis of flow cytometry data relies on visual identification of cell subsets by experts, a process that is subjective and often difficult to reproduce. An alternative and more objective approach is the use of statistical models to identify cell subsets of interest in an automated fashion. Two specific challenges for automated analysis are to detect extremely low frequency event subsets without biasing the estimate by pre-processing enrichment, and the ability to align cell subsets across multiple data samples for comparative analysis. In this manuscript, we develop hierarchical modeling extensions to the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM) approach we have previously described for cell subset identification, and show that the hierarchical DPGMM (HDPGMM) naturally generates an aligned data model that captures both commonalities and variations across multiple samples. HDPGMM also increases the sensitivity to extremely low frequency events by sharing information across multiple samples analyzed simultaneously. We validate the accuracy and reproducibility of HDPGMM estimates of antigen-specific T cells on clinically relevant reference peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples with known frequencies of antigen-specific T cells. These cell samples take advantage of retrovirally TCR-transduced T cells spiked into autologous PBMC samples to give a defined number of antigen-specific T cells detectable by HLA-peptide multimer binding. We provide open source software that can take advantage of both multiple processors and GPU-acceleration to perform the numerically-demanding computations. We show that hierarchical modeling is a useful probabilistic approach that can provide a consistent labeling

  18. Hierarchical modeling for rare event detection and cell subset alignment across flow cytometry samples.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Cron

    Full Text Available Flow cytometry is the prototypical assay for multi-parameter single cell analysis, and is essential in vaccine and biomarker research for the enumeration of antigen-specific lymphocytes that are often found in extremely low frequencies (0.1% or less. Standard analysis of flow cytometry data relies on visual identification of cell subsets by experts, a process that is subjective and often difficult to reproduce. An alternative and more objective approach is the use of statistical models to identify cell subsets of interest in an automated fashion. Two specific challenges for automated analysis are to detect extremely low frequency event subsets without biasing the estimate by pre-processing enrichment, and the ability to align cell subsets across multiple data samples for comparative analysis. In this manuscript, we develop hierarchical modeling extensions to the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM approach we have previously described for cell subset identification, and show that the hierarchical DPGMM (HDPGMM naturally generates an aligned data model that captures both commonalities and variations across multiple samples. HDPGMM also increases the sensitivity to extremely low frequency events by sharing information across multiple samples analyzed simultaneously. We validate the accuracy and reproducibility of HDPGMM estimates of antigen-specific T cells on clinically relevant reference peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC samples with known frequencies of antigen-specific T cells. These cell samples take advantage of retrovirally TCR-transduced T cells spiked into autologous PBMC samples to give a defined number of antigen-specific T cells detectable by HLA-peptide multimer binding. We provide open source software that can take advantage of both multiple processors and GPU-acceleration to perform the numerically-demanding computations. We show that hierarchical modeling is a useful probabilistic approach that can provide a

  19. Production optimisation in the petrochemical industry by hierarchical multivariate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Magnus; Furusjoe, Erik; Jansson, Aasa

    2004-06-01

    This project demonstrates the advantages of applying hierarchical multivariate modelling in the petrochemical industry in order to increase knowledge of the total process. The models indicate possible ways to optimise the process regarding the use of energy and raw material, which is directly linked to the environmental impact of the process. The refinery of Nynaes Refining AB (Goeteborg, Sweden) has acted as a demonstration site in this project. The models developed for the demonstration site resulted in: Detection of an unknown process disturbance and suggestions of possible causes; Indications on how to increase the yield in combination with energy savings; The possibility to predict product quality from on-line process measurements, making the results available at a higher frequency than customary laboratory analysis; Quantification of the gradually lowered efficiency of heat transfer in the furnace and increased fuel consumption as an effect of soot build-up on the furnace coils; Increased knowledge of the relation between production rate and the efficiency of the heat exchangers. This report is one of two reports from the project. It contains a technical discussion of the result with some degree of detail. A shorter and more easily accessible report is also available, see IVL report B1586-A.

  20. A hierarchical network modeling method for railway tunnels safety assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jin; Xu, Weixiang; Guo, Xin; Liu, Xumin

    2017-02-01

    Using network theory to model risk-related knowledge on accidents is regarded as potential very helpful in risk management. A large amount of defects detection data for railway tunnels is collected in autumn every year in China. It is extremely important to discover the regularities knowledge in database. In this paper, based on network theories and by using data mining techniques, a new method is proposed for mining risk-related regularities to support risk management in railway tunnel projects. A hierarchical network (HN) model which takes into account the tunnel structures, tunnel defects, potential failures and accidents is established. An improved Apriori algorithm is designed to rapidly and effectively mine correlations between tunnel structures and tunnel defects. Then an algorithm is presented in order to mine the risk-related regularities table (RRT) from the frequent patterns. At last, a safety assessment method is proposed by consideration of actual defects and possible risks of defects gained from the RRT. This method cannot only generate the quantitative risk results but also reveal the key defects and critical risks of defects. This paper is further development on accident causation network modeling methods which can provide guidance for specific maintenance measure.

  1. Hierarchical Bayesian Markov switching models with application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holan, S.H.; Davis, G.M.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    The timing of spawning in fish is tightly linked to environmental factors; however, these factors are not very well understood for many species. Specifically, little information is available to guide recruitment efforts for endangered species such as the sturgeon. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the success of spawning of the shovelnose sturgeon which uses both biological and behavioural (longitudinal) data. In particular, we use data that were produced from a tracking study that was conducted in the Lower Missouri River. The data that were produced from this study consist of biological variables associated with readiness to spawn along with longitudinal behavioural data collected by using telemetry and archival data storage tags. These high frequency data are complex both biologically and in the underlying behavioural process. To accommodate such complexity we developed a hierarchical linear regression model that uses an eigenvalue predictor, derived from the transition probability matrix of a two-state Markov switching model with generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic dynamics. Finally, to minimize the computational burden that is associated with estimation of this model, a parallel computing approach is proposed. ?? Journal compilation 2009 Royal Statistical Society.

  2. TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA LIGHT CURVE INFERENCE: HIERARCHICAL MODELS IN THE OPTICAL AND NEAR-INFRARED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandel, Kaisey S.; Narayan, Gautham; Kirshner, Robert P.

    2011-01-01

    We have constructed a comprehensive statistical model for Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves spanning optical through near-infrared (NIR) data. A hierarchical framework coherently models multiple random and uncertain effects, including intrinsic supernova (SN) light curve covariances, dust extinction and reddening, and distances. An improved BAYESN Markov Chain Monte Carlo code computes probabilistic inferences for the hierarchical model by sampling the global probability density of parameters describing individual SNe and the population. We have applied this hierarchical model to optical and NIR data of 127 SNe Ia from PAIRITEL, CfA3, Carnegie Supernova Project, and the literature. We find an apparent population correlation between the host galaxy extinction A V and the ratio of total-to-selective dust absorption R V . For SNe with low dust extinction, A V ∼ V ∼ 2.5-2.9, while at high extinctions, A V ∼> 1, low values of R V < 2 are favored. The NIR luminosities are excellent standard candles and are less sensitive to dust extinction. They exhibit low correlation with optical peak luminosities, and thus provide independent information on distances. The combination of NIR and optical data constrains the dust extinction and improves the predictive precision of individual SN Ia distances by about 60%. Using cross-validation, we estimate an rms distance modulus prediction error of 0.11 mag for SNe with optical and NIR data versus 0.15 mag for SNe with optical data alone. Continued study of SNe Ia in the NIR is important for improving their utility as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

  3. Likelihood-free inference of population structure and local adaptation in a Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, Eric; Dawson, Kevin J; Beaumont, Mark A

    2010-06-01

    We address the problem of finding evidence of natural selection from genetic data, accounting for the confounding effects of demographic history. In the absence of natural selection, gene genealogies should all be sampled from the same underlying distribution, often approximated by a coalescent model. Selection at a particular locus will lead to a modified genealogy, and this motivates a number of recent approaches for detecting the effects of natural selection in the genome as "outliers" under some models. The demographic history of a population affects the sampling distribution of genealogies, and therefore the observed genotypes and the classification of outliers. Since we cannot see genealogies directly, we have to infer them from the observed data under some model of mutation and demography. Thus the accuracy of an outlier-based approach depends to a greater or a lesser extent on the uncertainty about the demographic and mutational model. A natural modeling framework for this type of problem is provided by Bayesian hierarchical models, in which parameters, such as mutation rates and selection coefficients, are allowed to vary across loci. It has proved quite difficult computationally to implement fully probabilistic genealogical models with complex demographies, and this has motivated the development of approximations such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). In ABC the data are compressed into summary statistics, and computation of the likelihood function is replaced by simulation of data under the model. In a hierarchical setting one may be interested both in hyperparameters and parameters, and there may be very many of the latter--for example, in a genetic model, these may be parameters describing each of many loci or populations. This poses a problem for ABC in that one then requires summary statistics for each locus, which, if used naively, leads to a consequent difficulty in conditional density estimation. We develop a general method for applying

  4. A joint model for multivariate hierarchical semicontinuous data with replications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassahun-Yimer, Wondwosen; Albert, Paul S; Lipsky, Leah M; Nansel, Tonja R; Liu, Aiyi

    2017-01-01

    Longitudinal data are often collected in biomedical applications in such a way that measurements on more than one response are taken from a given subject repeatedly overtime. For some problems, these multiple profiles need to be modeled jointly to get insight on the joint evolution and/or association of these responses over time. In practice, such longitudinal outcomes may have many zeros that need to be accounted for in the analysis. For example, in dietary intake studies, as we focus on in this paper, some food components are eaten daily by almost all subjects, while others are consumed episodically, where individuals have time periods where they do not eat these components followed by periods where they do. These episodically consumed foods need to be adequately modeled to account for the many zeros that are encountered. In this paper, we propose a joint model to analyze multivariate hierarchical semicontinuous data characterized by many zeros and more than one replicate observations at each measurement occasion. This approach allows for different probability mechanisms for describing the zero behavior as compared with the mean intake given that the individual consumes the food. To deal with the potentially large number of multivariate profiles, we use a pairwise model fitting approach that was developed in the context of multivariate Gaussian random effects models with large number of multivariate components. The novelty of the proposed approach is that it incorporates: (1) multivariate, possibly correlated, response variables; (2) within subject correlation resulting from repeated measurements taken from each subject; (3) many zero observations; (4) overdispersion; and (5) replicate measurements at each visit time.

  5. Heuristics for Hierarchical Partitioning with Application to Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Michael Oliver; Alur, Rajeev

    2001-01-01

    Given a collection of connected components, it is often desired to cluster together parts of strong correspondence, yielding a hierarchical structure. We address the automation of this process and apply heuristics to battle the combinatorial and computational complexity. We define a cost function...... studies. A longer version of this paper is available as technical report BRICS Research Series RS-00-21. Basic Research in Computer Science, Center of the Danish National Research Foundation....... function. We argue for a heuristic function based on four criteria: the number of enclosed connections, the number of components, the number of touched connections and the depth of the structure. We report on an application in the context of formal verification, where our algorithm serves as a preprocessor...... for a temporal scaling technique, called “Next” heuristic [2]. The latter is applicable in reachability analysis and is included in a recent version of the Mocha model checking tool. We demonstrate performance and benefits of our method and use an asynchronous parity computer and an opinion poll protocol as case...

  6. Smart Annotation of Cyclic Data Using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine F. Martindale

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Cyclic signals are an intrinsic part of daily life, such as human motion and heart activity. The detailed analysis of them is important for clinical applications such as pathological gait analysis and for sports applications such as performance analysis. Labeled training data for algorithms that analyze these cyclic data come at a high annotation cost due to only limited annotations available under laboratory conditions or requiring manual segmentation of the data under less restricted conditions. This paper presents a smart annotation method that reduces this cost of labeling for sensor-based data, which is applicable to data collected outside of strict laboratory conditions. The method uses semi-supervised learning of sections of cyclic data with a known cycle number. A hierarchical hidden Markov model (hHMM is used, achieving a mean absolute error of 0.041 ± 0.020 s relative to a manually-annotated reference. The resulting model was also used to simultaneously segment and classify continuous, ‘in the wild’ data, demonstrating the applicability of using hHMM, trained on limited data sections, to label a complete dataset. This technique achieved comparable results to its fully-supervised equivalent. Our semi-supervised method has the significant advantage of reduced annotation cost. Furthermore, it reduces the opportunity for human error in the labeling process normally required for training of segmentation algorithms. It also lowers the annotation cost of training a model capable of continuous monitoring of cycle characteristics such as those employed to analyze the progress of movement disorders or analysis of running technique.

  7. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  8. Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez

    2007-01-01

    A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...

  9. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-06-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Logistic random effects regression models: A comparison of statistical packages for binary and ordinal outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Li (Bayoue); B. Roozenbeek (Bob); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); E.M.E.H. Lesaffre (Emmanuel)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Logistic random effects models are a popular tool to analyze multilevel also called hierarchical data with a binary or ordinal outcome. Here, we aim to compare different statistical software implementations of these models. Methods. We used individual patient data from 8509

  11. Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Todd M. Fearer; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Frank R. Thompson; Mark D. Nelson; John M. Tirpak

    2011-01-01

    Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and...

  12. Modeling Hierarchically Clustered Longitudinal Survival Processes with Applications to Child Mortality and Maternal Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuate-Defo, Bathélémy

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishThis paper merges two parallel developments since the 1970s of newstatistical tools for data analysis: statistical methods known as hazard models that are used foranalyzing event-duration data and statistical methods for analyzing hierarchically clustered dataknown as multilevel models. These developments have rarely been integrated in research practice andthe formalization and estimation of models for hierarchically clustered survival data remain largelyuncharted. I attempt to fill some of this gap and demonstrate the merits of formulating and estimatingmultilevel hazard models with longitudinal data.FrenchCette étude intègre deux approches statistiques de pointe d'analyse des donnéesquantitatives depuis les années 70: les méthodes statistiques d'analyse desdonnées biographiques ou méthodes de survie et les méthodes statistiquesd'analyse des données hiérarchiques ou méthodes multi-niveaux. Ces deuxapproches ont été très peu mis en symbiose dans la pratique de recherche et parconséquent, la formulation et l'estimation des modèles appropriés aux donnéeslongitudinales et hiérarchiquement nichées demeure essentiellement un champd'investigation vierge. J'essaye de combler ce vide et j'utilise des données réellesen santé publique pour démontrer les mérites et contextes de formulation etd'estimation des modèles multi-niveaux et multi-états des données biographiqueset longitudinales.

  13. HIERARCHICAL METHODOLOGY FOR MODELING HYDROGEN STORAGE SYSTEMS. PART I: SCOPING MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, B; Donald L. Anton, D

    2008-12-22

    Detailed models for hydrogen storage systems provide essential design information about flow and temperature distributions, as well as, the utilization of a hydrogen storage media. However, before constructing a detailed model it is necessary to know the geometry and length scales of the system, along with its heat transfer requirements, which depend on the limiting reaction kinetics. More fundamentally, before committing significant time and resources to the development of a detailed model, it is necessary to know whether a conceptual storage system design is viable. For this reason, a hierarchical system of models progressing from scoping models to detailed analyses was developed. This paper, which discusses the scoping models, is the first in a two part series that presents a collection of hierarchical models for the design and evaluation of hydrogen storage systems.

  14. Intelligent multiagent coordination based on reinforcement hierarchical neuro-fuzzy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Leonardo Forero; Vellasco, Marley; Figueiredo, Karla

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents the research and development of two hybrid neuro-fuzzy models for the hierarchical coordination of multiple intelligent agents. The main objective of the models is to have multiple agents interact intelligently with each other in complex systems. We developed two new models of coordination for intelligent multiagent systems, which integrates the Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy model with two proposed coordination mechanisms: the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with a market-driven coordination mechanism (MA-RL-HNFP-MD) and the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with graph coordination (MA-RL-HNFP-CG). In order to evaluate the proposed models and verify the contribution of the proposed coordination mechanisms, two multiagent benchmark applications were developed: the pursuit game and the robot soccer simulation. The results obtained demonstrated that the proposed coordination mechanisms greatly improve the performance of the multiagent system when compared with other strategies.

  15. Statistical modelling of fish stocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine

    1999-01-01

    for modelling the dynamics of a fish population is suggested. A new approach is introduced to analyse the sources of variation in age composition data, which is one of the most important sources of information in the cohort based models for estimation of stock abundancies and mortalities. The approach combines...... and it is argued that an approach utilising stochastic differential equations might be advantagous in fish stoch assessments....

  16. Statistical lung model for microdosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.; Hadley, R.T.

    1984-03-01

    To calculate the microdosimetry of plutonium in the lung, a mathematical description is needed of lung tissue microstructure that defines source-site parameters. Beagle lungs were expanded using a glutaraldehyde fixative at 30 cm water pressure. Tissue specimens, five microns thick, were stained with hematoxylin and eosin then studied using an image analyzer. Measurements were made along horizontal lines through the magnified tissue image. The distribution of air space and tissue chord lengths and locations of epithelial cell nuclei were recorded from about 10,000 line scans. The distribution parameters constituted a model of lung microstructure for predicting the paths of random alpha particle tracks in the lung and the probability of traversing biologically sensitive sites. This lung model may be used in conjunction with established deposition and retention models for determining the microdosimetry in the pulmonary lung for a wide variety of inhaled radioactive materials

  17. Extending the Real-Time Maude Semantics of Ptolemy to Hierarchical DE Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Csaba Ölveczky

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends our Real-Time Maude formalization of the semantics of flat Ptolemy II discrete-event (DE models to hierarchical models, including modal models. This is a challenging task that requires combining synchronous fixed-point computations with hierarchical structure. The synthesis of a Real-Time Maude verification model from a Ptolemy II DE model, and the formal verification of the synthesized model in Real-Time Maude, have been integrated into Ptolemy II, enabling a model-engineering process that combines the convenience of Ptolemy II DE modeling and simulation with formal verification in Real-Time Maude.

  18. Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics

  19. Statistical Modeling of Bivariate Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    to one. Following Crain (1974), one may consider order m approximators m log f111(X) - k k (x) - c(e), asx ;b. (4.4.5) k,-r A m and attempt to find...literature. Consider the approximate model m log fn (x) = 7 ekk(x) + a G(x), aSx ;b, (44.8) " k=-Mn ’ where G(x) is a Gaussian process and n is a

  20. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers......Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  1. Hierarchic stochastic modelling applied to intracellular Ca(2+ signals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Moenke

    Full Text Available Important biological processes like cell signalling and gene expression have noisy components and are very complex at the same time. Mathematical analysis of such systems has often been limited to the study of isolated subsystems, or approximations are used that are difficult to justify. Here we extend a recently published method (Thurley and Falcke, PNAS 2011 which is formulated in observable system configurations instead of molecular transitions. This reduces the number of system states by several orders of magnitude and avoids fitting of kinetic parameters. The method is applied to Ca(2+ signalling. Ca(2+ is a ubiquitous second messenger transmitting information by stochastic sequences of concentration spikes, which arise by coupling of subcellular Ca(2+ release events (puffs. We derive analytical expressions for a mechanistic Ca(2+ model, based on recent data from live cell imaging, and calculate Ca(2+ spike statistics in dependence on cellular parameters like stimulus strength or number of Ca(2+ channels. The new approach substantiates a generic Ca(2+ model, which is a very convenient way to simulate Ca(2+ spike sequences with correct spiking statistics.

  2. Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua

    2013-06-15

    Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

    2018-03-01

    Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

  4. Recognizing Chinese characters in digital ink from non-native language writers using hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Hao; Zhang, Xi-wen

    2017-06-01

    While Chinese is learned as a second language, its characters are taught step by step from their strokes to components, radicals to components, and their complex relations. Chinese Characters in digital ink from non-native language writers are deformed seriously, thus the global recognition approaches are poorer. So a progressive approach from bottom to top is presented based on hierarchical models. Hierarchical information includes strokes and hierarchical components. Each Chinese character is modeled as a hierarchical tree. Strokes in one Chinese characters in digital ink are classified with Hidden Markov Models and concatenated to the stroke symbol sequence. And then the structure of components in one ink character is extracted. According to the extraction result and the stroke symbol sequence, candidate characters are traversed and scored. Finally, the recognition candidate results are listed by descending. The method of this paper is validated by testing 19815 copies of the handwriting Chinese characters written by foreign students.

  5. Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data

    CERN Document Server

    Lawless, Jerald F

    2011-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition"An indispensable addition to any serious collection on lifetime data analysis and . . . a valuable contribution to the statistical literature. Highly recommended . . ."-Choice"This is an important book, which will appeal to statisticians working on survival analysis problems."-Biometrics"A thorough, unified treatment of statistical models and methods used in the analysis of lifetime data . . . this is a highly competent and agreeable statistical textbook."-Statistics in MedicineThe statistical analysis of lifetime or response time data is a key tool in engineering,

  6. spBayes: An R Package for Univariate and Multivariate Hierarchical Point-referenced Spatial Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, Andrew O; Banerjee, Sudipto; Carlin, Bradley P

    2007-04-01

    Scientists and investigators in such diverse fields as geological and environmental sciences, ecology, forestry, disease mapping, and economics often encounter spatially referenced data collected over a fixed set of locations with coordinates (latitude-longitude, Easting-Northing etc.) in a region of study. Such point-referenced or geostatistical data are often best analyzed with Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, fitting such models involves computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods whose efficiency depends upon the specific problem at hand. This requires extensive coding on the part of the user and the situation is not helped by the lack of available software for such algorithms. Here, we introduce a statistical software package, spBayes, built upon the R statistical computing platform that implements a generalized template encompassing a wide variety of Gaussian spatial process models for univariate as well as multivariate point-referenced data. We discuss the algorithms behind our package and illustrate its use with a synthetic and real data example.

  7. spBayes: An R Package for Univariate and Multivariate Hierarchical Point-referenced Spatial Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew O. Finley

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Scientists and investigators in such diverse fields as geological and environmental sciences, ecology, forestry, disease mapping, and economics often encounter spatially referenced data collected over a fixed set of locations with coordinates (latitude–longitude, Easting–Northing etc. in a region of study. Such point-referenced or geostatistical data are often best analyzed with Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, fitting such models involves computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods whose efficiency depends upon the specific problem at hand. This requires extensive coding on the part of the user and the situation is not helped by the lack of available software for such algorithms. Here, we introduce a statistical software package, spBayes, built upon the R statistical computing platform that implements a generalized template encompassing a wide variety of Gaussian spatial process models for univariate as well as multivariate point-referenced data. We discuss the algorithms behind our package and illustrate its use with a synthetic and real data example.

  8. Robust hierarchical state-space models reveal diel variation in travel rates of migrating leatherback turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsen, Ian D; Myers, Ransom A; James, Michael C

    2006-09-01

    1. Biological and statistical complexity are features common to most ecological data that hinder our ability to extract meaningful patterns using conventional tools. Recent work on implementing modern statistical methods for analysis of such ecological data has focused primarily on population dynamics but other types of data, such as animal movement pathways obtained from satellite telemetry, can also benefit from the application of modern statistical tools. 2. We develop a robust hierarchical state-space approach for analysis of multiple satellite telemetry pathways obtained via the Argos system. State-space models are time-series methods that allow unobserved states and biological parameters to be estimated from data observed with error. We show that the approach can reveal important patterns in complex, noisy data where conventional methods cannot. 3. Using the largest Atlantic satellite telemetry data set for critically endangered leatherback turtles, we show that the diel pattern in travel rates of these turtles changes over different phases of their migratory cycle. While foraging in northern waters the turtles show similar travel rates during day and night, but on their southward migration to tropical waters travel rates are markedly faster during the day. These patterns are generally consistent with diving data, and may be related to changes in foraging behaviour. Interestingly, individuals that migrate southward to breed generally show higher daytime travel rates than individuals that migrate southward in a non-breeding year. 4. Our approach is extremely flexible and can be applied to many ecological analyses that use complex, sequential data.

  9. A mechanical model of biomimetic adhesive pads with tilted and hierarchical structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schargott, M

    2009-06-01

    A 3D model for hierarchical biomimetic adhesive pads is constructed. It is based on the main principles of the adhesive pads of the Tokay gecko and consists of hierarchical layers of vertical or tilted beams, where each layer is constructed in such a way that no cohesion between adjacent beams can occur. The elastic and adhesive properties are calculated analytically and numerically. For the adhesive contact on stochastically rough surfaces, the maximum adhesion force increases with increasing number of hierarchical layers. Additional calculations show that the adhesion force also depends on the height spectrum of the rough surface.

  10. A mechanical model of biomimetic adhesive pads with tilted and hierarchical structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schargott, M [Institute of Mechanics, Technische Universitaet Berlin, Strd 17 Juni 135, 10623 Berlin (Germany)], E-mail: martin.schargott@tu-berlin.de

    2009-06-01

    A 3D model for hierarchical biomimetic adhesive pads is constructed. It is based on the main principles of the adhesive pads of the Tokay gecko and consists of hierarchical layers of vertical or tilted beams, where each layer is constructed in such a way that no cohesion between adjacent beams can occur. The elastic and adhesive properties are calculated analytically and numerically. For the adhesive contact on stochastically rough surfaces, the maximum adhesion force increases with increasing number of hierarchical layers. Additional calculations show that the adhesion force also depends on the height spectrum of the rough surface.

  11. A mechanical model of biomimetic adhesive pads with tilted and hierarchical structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schargott, M

    2009-01-01

    A 3D model for hierarchical biomimetic adhesive pads is constructed. It is based on the main principles of the adhesive pads of the Tokay gecko and consists of hierarchical layers of vertical or tilted beams, where each layer is constructed in such a way that no cohesion between adjacent beams can occur. The elastic and adhesive properties are calculated analytically and numerically. For the adhesive contact on stochastically rough surfaces, the maximum adhesion force increases with increasing number of hierarchical layers. Additional calculations show that the adhesion force also depends on the height spectrum of the rough surface

  12. Accelerated life models modeling and statistical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Bagdonavicius, Vilijandas

    2001-01-01

    Failure Time DistributionsIntroductionParametric Classes of Failure Time DistributionsAccelerated Life ModelsIntroductionGeneralized Sedyakin's ModelAccelerated Failure Time ModelProportional Hazards ModelGeneralized Proportional Hazards ModelsGeneralized Additive and Additive-Multiplicative Hazards ModelsChanging Shape and Scale ModelsGeneralizationsModels Including Switch-Up and Cycling EffectsHeredity HypothesisSummaryAccelerated Degradation ModelsIntroductionDegradation ModelsModeling the Influence of Explanatory Varia

  13. Using hierarchical linear growth models to evaluate protective mechanisms that mediate science achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Secker, Clare Elaine

    The study of students at risk is a major topic of science education policy and discussion. Much research has focused on describing conditions and problems associated with the statistical risk of low science achievement among individuals who are members of groups characterized by problems such as poverty and social disadvantage. But outcomes attributed to these factors do not explain the nature and extent of mechanisms that account for differences in performance among individuals at risk. There is ample theoretical and empirical evidence that demographic differences should be conceptualized as social contexts, or collections of variables, that alter the psychological significance and social demands of life events, and affect subsequent relationships between risk and resilience. The hierarchical linear growth models used in this dissertation provide greater specification of the role of social context and the protective effects of attitude, expectations, parenting practices, peer influences, and learning opportunities on science achievement. While the individual influences of these protective factors on science achievement were small, their cumulative effect was substantial. Meta-analysis conducted on the effects associated with psychological and environmental processes that mediate risk mechanisms in sixteen social contexts revealed twenty-two significant differences between groups of students. Positive attitudes, high expectations, and more intense science course-taking had positive effects on achievement of all students, although these factors were not equally protective in all social contexts. In general, effects associated with authoritative parenting and peer influences were negative, regardless of social context. An evaluation comparing the performance and stability of hierarchical linear growth models with traditional repeated measures models is included as well.

  14. Usability Prediction & Ranking of SDLC Models Using Fuzzy Hierarchical Usability Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Deepak; Ahlawat, Anil K.; Sagar, Kalpna

    2017-06-01

    Evaluation of software quality is an important aspect for controlling and managing the software. By such evaluation, improvements in software process can be made. The software quality is significantly dependent on software usability. Many researchers have proposed numbers of usability models. Each model considers a set of usability factors but do not cover all the usability aspects. Practical implementation of these models is still missing, as there is a lack of precise definition of usability. Also, it is very difficult to integrate these models into current software engineering practices. In order to overcome these challenges, this paper aims to define the term `usability' using the proposed hierarchical usability model with its detailed taxonomy. The taxonomy considers generic evaluation criteria for identifying the quality components, which brings together factors, attributes and characteristics defined in various HCI and software models. For the first time, the usability model is also implemented to predict more accurate usability values. The proposed system is named as fuzzy hierarchical usability model that can be easily integrated into the current software engineering practices. In order to validate the work, a dataset of six software development life cycle models is created and employed. These models are ranked according to their predicted usability values. This research also focuses on the detailed comparison of proposed model with the existing usability models.

  15. Hierarchical spatial capture-recapture models: Modeling population density from stratified populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.

    2014-01-01

    Capture–recapture studies are often conducted on populations that are stratified by space, time or other factors. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial capture–recapture (SCR) modelling framework for stratified populations – when sampling occurs within multiple distinct spatial and temporal strata.We describe a hierarchical model that integrates distinct models for both the spatial encounter history data from capture–recapture sampling, and also for modelling variation in density among strata. We use an implementation of data augmentation to parameterize the model in terms of a latent categorical stratum or group membership variable, which provides a convenient implementation in popular BUGS software packages.We provide an example application to an experimental study involving small-mammal sampling on multiple trapping grids over multiple years, where the main interest is in modelling a treatment effect on population density among the trapping grids.Many capture–recapture studies involve some aspect of spatial or temporal replication that requires some attention to modelling variation among groups or strata. We propose a hierarchical model that allows explicit modelling of group or strata effects. Because the model is formulated for individual encounter histories and is easily implemented in the BUGS language and other free software, it also provides a general framework for modelling individual effects, such as are present in SCR models.

  16. Hybrid and hierarchical nanoreinforced polymer composites: Computational modelling of structure–properties relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishnaevsky, Leon; Dai, Gaoming

    2014-01-01

    Hybrid and hierarchical polymer composites represent a promising group of materials for engineering applications. In this paper, computational studies of the strength and damage resistance of hybrid and hierarchical composites are reviewed. The reserves of the composite improvement are explored...... by using computational micromechanical models. It is shown that while glass/carbon fibers hybrid composites clearly demonstrate higher stiffness and lower weight with increasing the carbon content, they can have lower strength as compared with usual glass fiber polymer composites. Secondary...

  17. Bottom-up learning of hierarchical models in a class of deterministic POMDP environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itoh Hideaki

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs is a useful tool for developing various intelligent agents, and learning hierarchical POMDP models is one of the key approaches for building such agents when the environments of the agents are unknown and large. To learn hierarchical models, bottom-up learning methods in which learning takes place in a layer-by-layer manner from the lowest to the highest layer are already extensively used in some research fields such as hidden Markov models and neural networks. However, little attention has been paid to bottom-up approaches for learning POMDP models. In this paper, we present a novel bottom-up learning algorithm for hierarchical POMDP models and prove that, by using this algorithm, a perfect model (i.e., a model that can perfectly predict future observations can be learned at least in a class of deterministic POMDP environments

  18. A hierarchical Bayesian model to incorporate uncertainty into methods for diversity partitioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, Zachary H; Fordyce, James A; Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M

    2018-04-01

    Recently there have been major theoretical advances in the quantification and partitioning of diversity within and among communities, regions, and ecosystems. However, applying those advances to real data remains a challenge. Ecologists often end up describing their samples rather than estimating the diversity components of an underlying study system, and existing approaches do not easily provide statistical frameworks for testing ecological questions. Here we offer one avenue to do all of the above using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We estimate posterior distributions of the underlying "true" relative abundances of each species within each unit sampled. These posterior estimates of relative abundance can then be used with existing formulae to estimate and partition diversity. The result is a posterior distribution of diversity metrics describing our knowledge (or beliefs) about the study system. This approach intuitively leads to statistical inferences addressing biologically motivated hypotheses via Bayesian model comparison. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our approach does as well or better at approximating the "true" diversity of a community relative to naïve or ad-hoc bias-corrected estimates. Moreover, model comparison correctly distinguishes between alternative hypotheses about the distribution of diversity within and among samples. Finally, we use an empirical ecological dataset to illustrate how the approach can be used to address questions about the makeup and diversities of assemblages at local and regional scales. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Briggs, William

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

  20. Calibrating the sqHIMMELI v1.0 wetland methane emission model with hierarchical modeling and adaptive MCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susiluoto, Jouni; Raivonen, Maarit; Backman, Leif; Laine, Marko; Makela, Jarmo; Peltola, Olli; Vesala, Timo; Aalto, Tuula

    2018-03-01

    Estimating methane (CH4) emissions from natural wetlands is complex, and the estimates contain large uncertainties. The models used for the task are typically heavily parameterized and the parameter values are not well known. In this study, we perform a Bayesian model calibration for a new wetland CH4 emission model to improve the quality of the predictions and to understand the limitations of such models.The detailed process model that we analyze contains descriptions for CH4 production from anaerobic respiration, CH4 oxidation, and gas transportation by diffusion, ebullition, and the aerenchyma cells of vascular plants. The processes are controlled by several tunable parameters. We use a hierarchical statistical model to describe the parameters and obtain the posterior distributions of the parameters and uncertainties in the processes with adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance resampling, and time series analysis techniques. For the estimation, the analysis utilizes measurement data from the Siikaneva flux measurement site in southern Finland. The uncertainties related to the parameters and the modeled processes are described quantitatively. At the process level, the flux measurement data are able to constrain the CH4 production processes, methane oxidation, and the different gas transport processes. The posterior covariance structures explain how the parameters and the processes are related. Additionally, the flux and flux component uncertainties are analyzed both at the annual and daily levels. The parameter posterior densities obtained provide information regarding importance of the different processes, which is also useful for development of wetland methane emission models other than the square root HelsinkI Model of MEthane buiLd-up and emIssion for peatlands (sqHIMMELI). The hierarchical modeling allows us to assess the effects of some of the parameters on an annual basis. The results of the calibration and the cross validation suggest that

  1. Automated statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, J.J.

    1992-01-01

    The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) has been completely automated through computer software. The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems is one part of a complete quality control program used by the Remote Analytical Laboratory (RAL) at the ICPP. The quality control program is an integration of automated data input, measurement system calibration, database management, and statistical process control. The quality control program and statistical modeling program meet the guidelines set forth by the American Society for Testing Materials and American National Standards Institute. A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations describing any systematic bias inherent in a measurement system and the precision of a measurement system. A statistical model is developed from data generated from the analysis of control standards. Control standards are samples which are made up at precise known levels by an independent laboratory and submitted to the RAL. The RAL analysts who process control standards do not know the values of those control standards. The object behind statistical modeling is to describe real process samples in terms of their bias and precision and, to verify that a measurement system is operating satisfactorily. The processing of control standards gives us this ability

  2. The Use of Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model for Item Dimensionality Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretvas, S. Natasha; Williams, Natasha J.

    2004-01-01

    To assess item dimensionality, the following two approaches are described and compared: hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) and multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) model. Two generating models are used to simulate dichotomous responses to a 17-item test: the unidimensional and compensatory two-dimensional (C2D) models. For C2D…

  3. Microglia Morphological Categorization in a Rat Model of Neuroinflammation by Hierarchical Cluster and Principal Components Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Arjona, María Del Mar; Grondona, Jesús M; Granados-Durán, Pablo; Fernández-Llebrez, Pedro; López-Ávalos, María D

    2017-01-01

    It is known that microglia morphology and function are closely related, but only few studies have objectively described different morphological subtypes. To address this issue, morphological parameters of microglial cells were analyzed in a rat model of aseptic neuroinflammation. After the injection of a single dose of the enzyme neuraminidase (NA) within the lateral ventricle (LV) an acute inflammatory process occurs. Sections from NA-injected animals and sham controls were immunolabeled with the microglial marker IBA1, which highlights ramifications and features of the cell shape. Using images obtained by section scanning, individual microglial cells were sampled from various regions (septofimbrial nucleus, hippocampus and hypothalamus) at different times post-injection (2, 4 and 12 h). Each cell yielded a set of 15 morphological parameters by means of image analysis software. Five initial parameters (including fractal measures) were statistically different in cells from NA-injected rats (most of them IL-1β positive, i.e., M1-state) compared to those from control animals (none of them IL-1β positive, i.e., surveillant state). However, additional multimodal parameters were revealed more suitable for hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). This method pointed out the classification of microglia population in four clusters. Furthermore, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) suggested three specific parameters to objectively classify any microglia by a decision tree. In addition, a principal components analysis (PCA) revealed two extra valuable variables that allowed to further classifying microglia in a total of eight sub-clusters or types. The spatio-temporal distribution of these different morphotypes in our rat inflammation model allowed to relate specific morphotypes with microglial activation status and brain location. An objective method for microglia classification based on morphological parameters is proposed. Main points Microglia undergo a quantifiable

  4. Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varin, Cristiano; Cattelan, Manuela; Firth, David

    2016-01-01

    Rankings of scholarly journals based on citation data are often met with scepticism by the scientific community. Part of the scepticism is due to disparity between the common perception of journals' prestige and their ranking based on citation counts. A more serious concern is the inappropriate use of journal rankings to evaluate the scientific influence of researchers. The paper focuses on analysis of the table of cross-citations among a selection of statistics journals. Data are collected from the Web of Science database published by Thomson Reuters. Our results suggest that modelling the exchange of citations between journals is useful to highlight the most prestigious journals, but also that journal citation data are characterized by considerable heterogeneity, which needs to be properly summarized. Inferential conclusions require care to avoid potential overinterpretation of insignificant differences between journal ratings. Comparison with published ratings of institutions from the UK's research assessment exercise shows strong correlation at aggregate level between assessed research quality and journal citation 'export scores' within the discipline of statistics.

  5. Topology for statistical modeling of petascale data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascucci, Valerio (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Mascarenhas, Ajith Arthur; Rusek, Korben (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Bennett, Janine Camille; Levine, Joshua (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Gyulassy, Attila (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Thompson, David C.; Rojas, Joseph Maurice (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX)

    2011-07-01

    This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled 'Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data', funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program. Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is thus to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, our approach is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modeling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modeling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. This document summarizes the technical advances we have made to date that were made possible in whole or in part by MAPD funding. These technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modeling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods.

  6. Classification errors in contingency tables analyzed with hierarchical log-linear models. Technical report No. 20

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korn, E L

    1978-08-01

    This thesis is concerned with the effect of classification error on contingency tables being analyzed with hierarchical log-linear models (independence in an I x J table is a particular hierarchical log-linear model). Hierarchical log-linear models provide a concise way of describing independence and partial independences between the different dimensions of a contingency table. The structure of classification errors on contingency tables that will be used throughout is defined. This structure is a generalization of Bross' model, but here attention is paid to the different possible ways a contingency table can be sampled. Hierarchical log-linear models and the effect of misclassification on them are described. Some models, such as independence in an I x J table, are preserved by misclassification, i.e., the presence of classification error will not change the fact that a specific table belongs to that model. Other models are not preserved by misclassification; this implies that the usual tests to see if a sampled table belong to that model will not be of the right significance level. A simple criterion will be given to determine which hierarchical log-linear models are preserved by misclassification. Maximum likelihood theory is used to perform log-linear model analysis in the presence of known misclassification probabilities. It will be shown that the Pitman asymptotic power of tests between different hierarchical log-linear models is reduced because of the misclassification. A general expression will be given for the increase in sample size necessary to compensate for this loss of power and some specific cases will be examined.

  7. Infinite Random Graphs as Statistical Mechanical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria

    2011-01-01

    We discuss two examples of infinite random graphs obtained as limits of finite statistical mechanical systems: a model of two-dimensional dis-cretized quantum gravity defined in terms of causal triangulated surfaces, and the Ising model on generic random trees. For the former model we describe...

  8. A Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model in Combination with Dispersion Modeling to Improve Sib-Pair Linkage Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Woojoo; Kim, Jeonghwan; Lee, Youngjo; Park, Taesung; Suh, Young Ju

    2015-01-01

    We explored a hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) in combination with dispersion modeling to improve the sib-pair linkage analysis based on the revised Haseman-Elston regression model for a quantitative trait. A dispersion modeling technique was investigated for sib-pair linkage analysis using simulation studies and real data applications. We considered 4 heterogeneous dispersion settings according to a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the various statistical models based on the Haseman-Elston regression model. Our numerical studies demonstrated that susceptibility loci could be detected well by modeling the dispersion parameter appropriately. In particular, the HGLM had better performance than the linear regression model and the ordinary linear mixed model when the SNR is low, i.e., when substantial noise was present in the data. The study shows that the HGLM in combination with dispersion modeling can be utilized to identify multiple markers showing linkage to familial complex traits accurately. Appropriate dispersion modeling might be more powerful to identify markers closest to the major genes which determine a quantitative trait. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Inversion Using a Multiscale Hierarchical Model

    KAUST Repository

    Mondal, Anirban

    2014-07-03

    We consider a Bayesian approach to nonlinear inverse problems in which the unknown quantity is a random field (spatial or temporal). The Bayesian approach contains a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, can incorporate information from heterogeneous sources and provide a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inverse solution. The Bayesian setting casts the inverse solution as a posterior probability distribution over the model parameters. The Karhunen-Loeve expansion is used for dimension reduction of the random field. Furthermore, we use a hierarchical Bayes model to inject multiscale data in the modeling framework. In this Bayesian framework, we show that this inverse problem is well-posed by proving that the posterior measure is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the data in total variation norm. Computational challenges in this construction arise from the need for repeated evaluations of the forward model (e.g., in the context of MCMC) and are compounded by high dimensionality of the posterior. We develop two-stage reversible jump MCMC that has the ability to screen the bad proposals in the first inexpensive stage. Numerical results are presented by analyzing simulated as well as real data from hydrocarbon reservoir. This article has supplementary material available online. © 2014 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality.

  10. Review of statistical models for nuclear reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igarasi, Sin-iti

    1991-01-01

    Statistical model calculations have been widely performed for nuclear data evaluations. These were based on the models of Hauser-Feshbach, Weisskopf-Ewing and their modifications. Since the 1940s, non-compound nuclear phenomena have been observed, and stimulated many nuclear physicists to study compound and non-compound nuclear reaction mechanisms. Concerning compound nuclear reactions, they investigated problems on the basis of fundamental properties of S-matrix, statistical distributions of resonance pole parameters, random matrix elements of the nuclear Hamiltonian, and so forth. They have presented many sophisticated results. But old statistical models have been still useful, because these models were simple and easily utilizable. In this report, these old and new models will be briefly reviewed with a purpose of application to nuclear data evaluation, and examine applicability of the new models. (author)

  11. Matrix Tricks for Linear Statistical Models

    CERN Document Server

    Puntanen, Simo; Styan, George PH

    2011-01-01

    In teaching linear statistical models to first-year graduate students or to final-year undergraduate students there is no way to proceed smoothly without matrices and related concepts of linear algebra; their use is really essential. Our experience is that making some particular matrix tricks very familiar to students can substantially increase their insight into linear statistical models (and also multivariate statistical analysis). In matrix algebra, there are handy, sometimes even very simple "tricks" which simplify and clarify the treatment of a problem - both for the student and

  12. A generalized linear factor model approach to the hierarchical framework for responses and response times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Dylan; Tuerlinckx, Francis; van der Maas, Han L J

    2015-05-01

    We show how the hierarchical model for responses and response times as developed by van der Linden (2007), Fox, Klein Entink, and van der Linden (2007), Klein Entink, Fox, and van der Linden (2009), and Glas and van der Linden (2010) can be simplified to a generalized linear factor model with only the mild restriction that there is no hierarchical model at the item side. This result is valuable as it enables all well-developed modelling tools and extensions that come with these methods. We show that the restriction we impose on the hierarchical model does not influence parameter recovery under realistic circumstances. In addition, we present two illustrative real data analyses to demonstrate the practical benefits of our approach. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  13. Bioclim Deliverable D6b: application of statistical down-scaling within the BIOCLIM hierarchical strategy: methods, data requirements and underlying assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the possible long term impacts due to climate change on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations. The coarse spatial scale of the Earth-system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) used in BIOCLIM compared with the BIOCLIM study regions and the needs of performance assessment creates a need for down-scaling. Most of the developmental work on down-scaling methodologies undertaken by the international research community has focused on down-scaling from the general circulation model (GCM) scale (with a typical spatial resolution of 400 km by 400 km over Europe in the current generation of models) using dynamical down-scaling (i.e., regional climate models (RCMs), which typically have a spatial resolution of 50 km by 50 km for models whose domain covers the European region) or statistical methods (which can provide information at the point or station scale) in order to construct scenarios of anthropogenic climate change up to 2100. Dynamical down-scaling (with the MAR RCM) is used in BIOCLIM WP2 to down-scale from the GCM (i.e., IPSL C M4 D ) scale. In the original BIOCLIM description of work, it was proposed that UEA would apply statistical down-scaling to IPSL C M4 D output in WP2 as part of the hierarchical strategy. Statistical down-scaling requires the identification of statistical relationships between the observed large-scale and regional/local climate, which are then applied to large-scale GCM output, on the assumption that these relationships remain valid in the future (the assumption of stationarity). Thus it was proposed that UEA would investigate the extent to which it is possible to apply relationships between the present-day large-scale and regional/local climate to the relatively extreme conditions of the BIOCLIM WP2 snapshot simulations. Potential statistical down-scaling methodologies were identified from previous work performed at UEA. Appropriate station data from the case

  14. Experiments in Error Propagation within Hierarchal Combat Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    analysis confirms that there is a weak statistical difference between the R5FF and NOLH data sets. Figure 13. Statistical comparison of average Blue...addition, some may claim that the use of 10 sample indices is too weak statistically, so an additional experiment is conducted using 50 column...Uniform Automata Vector) Supplementary Manual. Auckland , N.Z.: Defense Technology Agency. Osborn, Kris. 2014. Navy Considers Future After Virginia

  15. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    . The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10-50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency...... for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16-42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models...

  16. Predicting Longitudinal Change in Language Production and Comprehension in Individuals with Down Syndrome: Hierarchical Linear Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Robin S.; Hesketh, Linda J.; Kistler, Doris J.

    2002-01-01

    Longitudinal change in syntax comprehension and production skill, measured over six years, was modeled in 31 individuals (ages 5-20) with Down syndrome. The best fitting Hierarchical Linear Modeling model of comprehension uses age and visual and auditory short-term memory as predictors of initial status, and age for growth trajectory. (Contains…

  17. Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José

    2002-01-01

    This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.

  18. A nonlinear mechanics model of bio-inspired hierarchical lattice materials consisting of horseshoe microstructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qiang; Cheng, Huanyu; Jang, Kyung-In; Luan, Haiwen; Hwang, Keh-Chih; Rogers, John A; Huang, Yonggang; Zhang, Yihui

    2016-05-01

    Development of advanced synthetic materials that can mimic the mechanical properties of non-mineralized soft biological materials has important implications in a wide range of technologies. Hierarchical lattice materials constructed with horseshoe microstructures belong to this class of bio-inspired synthetic materials, where the mechanical responses can be tailored to match the nonlinear J-shaped stress-strain curves of human skins. The underlying relations between the J-shaped stress-strain curves and their microstructure geometry are essential in designing such systems for targeted applications. Here, a theoretical model of this type of hierarchical lattice material is developed by combining a finite deformation constitutive relation of the building block (i.e., horseshoe microstructure), with the analyses of equilibrium and deformation compatibility in the periodical lattices. The nonlinear J-shaped stress-strain curves and Poisson ratios predicted by this model agree very well with results of finite element analyses (FEA) and experiment. Based on this model, analytic solutions were obtained for some key mechanical quantities, e.g., elastic modulus, Poisson ratio, peak modulus, and critical strain around which the tangent modulus increases rapidly. A negative Poisson effect is revealed in the hierarchical lattice with triangular topology, as opposed to a positive Poisson effect in hierarchical lattices with Kagome and honeycomb topologies. The lattice topology is also found to have a strong influence on the stress-strain curve. For the three isotropic lattice topologies (triangular, Kagome and honeycomb), the hierarchical triangular lattice material renders the sharpest transition in the stress-strain curve and relative high stretchability, given the same porosity and arc angle of horseshoe microstructure. Furthermore, a demonstrative example illustrates the utility of the developed model in the rapid optimization of hierarchical lattice materials for

  19. Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Pederson, Neil; Tingley, Martin; Bishop, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Reconstruction of pre-instrumental, late Holocene climate is important for understanding how climate has changed in the past and how climate might change in the future. Statistical prediction of paleoclimate from tree ring widths is challenging because tree ring widths are a one-dimensional summary of annual growth that represents a multi-dimensional set of climatic and biotic influences. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework using a nonlinear, biologically motivated tree ring growth model to jointly reconstruct temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Valley, New York. Using a common growth function to describe the response of a tree to climate, we allow for species-specific parameterizations of the growth response. To enable predictive backcasts, we model the climate variables with a vector autoregressive process on an annual timescale coupled with a multivariate conditional autoregressive process that accounts for temporal correlation and cross-correlation between temperature and precipitation on a monthly scale. Our multi-scale temporal model allows for flexibility in the climate response through time at different temporal scales and predicts reasonable climate scenarios given tree ring width data.

  20. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  1. A Poisson hierarchical modelling approach to detecting copy number variation in sequence coverage data

    KAUST Repository

    Sepúlveda, Nuno

    2013-02-26

    Background: The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model.Results: Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates.Conclusions: In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data. 2013 Seplveda et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  2. Statistical Modeling for Radiation Hardness Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladbury, Raymond L.

    2014-01-01

    We cover the models and statistics associated with single event effects (and total ionizing dose), why we need them, and how to use them: What models are used, what errors exist in real test data, and what the model allows us to say about the DUT will be discussed. In addition, how to use other sources of data such as historical, heritage, and similar part and how to apply experience, physics, and expert opinion to the analysis will be covered. Also included will be concepts of Bayesian statistics, data fitting, and bounding rates.

  3. Performance modeling, loss networks, and statistical multiplexing

    CERN Document Server

    Mazumdar, Ravi

    2009-01-01

    This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the important ideas of Palm distributions associated with traffic models and their role in performance measures. Also presented are recent ideas of large buffer, and many sources asymptotics that play an important role in understanding statistical multiplexing. I

  4. Simple statistical model for branched aggregates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemarchand, Claire; Hansen, Jesper Schmidt

    2015-01-01

    We propose a statistical model that can reproduce the size distribution of any branched aggregate, including amylopectin, dendrimers, molecular clusters of monoalcohols, and asphaltene nanoaggregates. It is based on the conditional probability for one molecule to form a new bond with a molecule......, given that it already has bonds with others. The model is applied here to asphaltene nanoaggregates observed in molecular dynamics simulations of Cooee bitumen. The variation with temperature of the probabilities deduced from this model is discussed in terms of statistical mechanics arguments....... The relevance of the statistical model in the case of asphaltene nanoaggregates is checked by comparing the predicted value of the probability for one molecule to have exactly i bonds with the same probability directly measured in the molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement is satisfactory...

  5. Statistical Model Checking for Stochastic Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Du, Dehui; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents novel extensions and applications of the UPPAAL-SMC model checker. The extensions allow for statistical model checking of stochastic hybrid systems. We show how our race-based stochastic semantics extends to networks of hybrid systems, and indicate the integration technique ap...

  6. Advances in statistical models for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Minerva, Tommaso; Vichi, Maurizio

    2015-01-01

    This edited volume focuses on recent research results in classification, multivariate statistics and machine learning and highlights advances in statistical models for data analysis. The volume provides both methodological developments and contributions to a wide range of application areas such as economics, marketing, education, social sciences and environment. The papers in this volume were first presented at the 9th biannual meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, held in September 2013 at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.

  7. Soft tissue deformation using a Hierarchical Finite Element Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faraci, Alessandro; Bello, Fernando; Darzi, Ara

    2004-01-01

    Simulating soft tissue deformation in real-time has become increasingly important in order to provide a realistic virtual environment for training surgical skills. Several methods have been proposed with the aim of rendering in real-time the mechanical and physiological behaviour of human organs, one of the most popular being Finite Element Method (FEM). In this paper we present a new approach to the solution of the FEM problem introducing the concept of parent and child mesh within the development of a hierarchical FEM. The online selection of the child mesh is presented with the purpose to adapt the mesh hierarchy in real-time. This permits further refinement of the child mesh increasing the detail of the deformation without slowing down the simulation and giving the possibility of integrating force feedback. The results presented demonstrate the application of our proposed framework using a desktop virtual reality (VR) system that incorporates stereo vision with integrated haptics co-location via a desktop Phantom force feedback device.

  8. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

  9. Measuring Service Quality in Higher Education: Development of a Hierarchical Model (HESQUAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teeroovengadum, Viraiyan; Kamalanabhan, T. J.; Seebaluck, Ashley Keshwar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to develop and empirically test a hierarchical model for measuring service quality in higher education. Design/methodology/approach: The first phase of the study consisted of qualitative research methods and a comprehensive literature review, which allowed the development of a conceptual model comprising 53 service quality…

  10. A generalized linear factor model approach to the hierarchical framework for responses and response times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, D.; Tuerlinckx, F.; van der Maas, H.L.J.

    2015-01-01

    We show how the hierarchical model for responses and response times as developed by van der Linden (2007), Fox, Klein Entink, and van der Linden (2007), Klein Entink, Fox, and van der Linden (2009), and Glas and van der Linden (2010) can be simplified to a generalized linear factor model with only

  11. Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roudi, Yasser; Aurell, Erik; Hertz, John

    2009-01-01

    (dansk abstrakt findes ikke) Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of  data......: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying...... and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring...

  12. An efficient hierarchical generalized linear mixed model for mapping QTL of ordinal traits in crop cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jian-Ying; Zhang, Jin; Zhang, Wen-Jie; Wang, Shi-Bo; Han, Shi-Feng; Zhang, Yuan-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Many important phenotypic traits in plants are ordinal. However, relatively little is known about the methodologies for ordinal trait association studies. In this study, we proposed a hierarchical generalized linear mixed model for mapping quantitative trait locus (QTL) of ordinal traits in crop cultivars. In this model, all the main-effect QTL and QTL-by-environment interaction were treated as random, while population mean, environmental effect and population structure were fixed. In the estimation of parameters, the pseudo data normal approximation of likelihood function and empirical Bayes approach were adopted. A series of Monte Carlo simulation experiments were performed to confirm the reliability of new method. The result showed that new method works well with satisfactory statistical power and precision. The new method was also adopted to dissect the genetic basis of soybean alkaline-salt tolerance in 257 soybean cultivars obtained, by stratified random sampling, from 6 geographic ecotypes in China. As a result, 6 main-effect QTL and 3 QTL-by-environment interactions were identified.

  13. Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics

    CERN Document Server

    Pan, Jian-Xin

    2002-01-01

    Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.

  14. Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Bremer, P. -T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2013-10-31

    Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, the approach of the entire team involving all three institutions is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modelling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modelling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. The overall technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modelling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods. Roughly speaking, the division of labor between our 3 groups (Sandia Labs in Livermore, Texas A&M in College Station, and U Utah in Salt Lake City) is as follows: the Sandia group focuses on statistical methods and their formulation in algebraic terms, and finds the application problems (and data sets) most relevant to this project, the Texas A&M Group develops new algebraic geometry algorithms, in particular with fewnomial theory, and the Utah group develops new algorithms in computational topology via Discrete Morse Theory. However, we hasten to point out that our three groups stay in tight contact via videconference every 2 weeks, so there is much synergy of ideas between the groups. The following of this document is focused on the contributions that had grater direct involvement from the team at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

  15. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. An R companion to linear statistical models

    CERN Document Server

    Hay-Jahans, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Focusing on user-developed programming, An R Companion to Linear Statistical Models serves two audiences: those who are familiar with the theory and applications of linear statistical models and wish to learn or enhance their skills in R; and those who are enrolled in an R-based course on regression and analysis of variance. For those who have never used R, the book begins with a self-contained introduction to R that lays the foundation for later chapters.This book includes extensive and carefully explained examples of how to write programs using the R programming language. These examples cove

  17. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  18. Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chan, Hing Kai

    2013-01-01

    Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information.   This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well.   Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment  comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.

  19. Discovering hierarchical structure in normal relational data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    Hierarchical clustering is a widely used tool for structuring and visualizing complex data using similarity. Traditionally, hierarchical clustering is based on local heuristics that do not explicitly provide assessment of the statistical saliency of the extracted hierarchy. We propose a non......-parametric generative model for hierarchical clustering of similarity based on multifurcating Gibbs fragmentation trees. This allows us to infer and display the posterior distribution of hierarchical structures that comply with the data. We demonstrate the utility of our method on synthetic data and data of functional...

  20. INFOGRAPHIC MODELING OF THE HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE OF THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM EXPOSED TO AN INNOVATIVE CONFLICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chulkov Vitaliy Olegovich

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the infographic modeling of hierarchical management systems exposed to innovative conflicts. The authors analyze the facts that serve as conflict drivers in the construction management environment. The reasons for innovative conflicts include changes in hierarchical structures of management systems, adjustment of workers to new management conditions, changes in the ideology, etc. Conflicts under consideration may involve contradictions between requests placed by customers and the legislation, any risks that may originate from the above contradiction, conflicts arising from any failure to comply with any accepted standards of conduct, etc. One of the main objectives of the theory of hierarchical structures is to develop a model capable of projecting potential innovative conflicts. Models described in the paper reflect dynamic changes in patterns of external impacts within the conflict area. The simplest model element is a monad, or an indivisible set of characteristics of participants at the pre-set level. Interaction between two monads forms a diad. Modeling of situations that involve a different number of monads, diads, resources and impacts can improve methods used to control and manage hierarchical structures in the construction industry. However, in the absence of any mathematical models employed to simulate conflict-related events, processes and situations, any research into, projection and management of interpersonal and group-to-group conflicts are to be performed in the legal environment

  1. HIERARCHICAL METHODOLOGY FOR MODELING HYDROGEN STORAGE SYSTEMS PART II: DETAILED MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, B; Donald L. Anton, D

    2008-12-22

    There is significant interest in hydrogen storage systems that employ a media which either adsorbs, absorbs or reacts with hydrogen in a nearly reversible manner. In any media based storage system the rate of hydrogen uptake and the system capacity is governed by a number of complex, coupled physical processes. To design and evaluate such storage systems, a comprehensive methodology was developed, consisting of a hierarchical sequence of models that range from scoping calculations to numerical models that couple reaction kinetics with heat and mass transfer for both the hydrogen charging and discharging phases. The scoping models were presented in Part I [1] of this two part series of papers. This paper describes a detailed numerical model that integrates the phenomena occurring when hydrogen is charged and discharged. A specific application of the methodology is made to a system using NaAlH{sub 4} as the storage media.

  2. STATISTICAL MODELS OF REPRESENTING INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Feraru

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article entitled Statistical Models of Representing Intellectual Capital approaches and analyses the concept of intellectual capital, as well as the main models which can support enterprisers/managers in evaluating and quantifying the advantages of intellectual capital. Most authors examine intellectual capital from a static perspective and focus on the development of its various evaluation models. In this chapter we surveyed the classical static models: Sveiby, Edvisson, Balanced Scorecard, as well as the canonical model of intellectual capital. Among the group of static models for evaluating organisational intellectual capital the canonical model stands out. This model enables the structuring of organisational intellectual capital in: human capital, structural capital and relational capital. Although the model is widely spread, it is a static one and can thus create a series of errors in the process of evaluation, because all the three entities mentioned above are not independent from the viewpoint of their contents, as any logic of structuring complex entities requires.

  3. An assembly process model based on object-oriented hierarchical time Petri Nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiapeng; Liu, Shaoli; Liu, Jianhua; Du, Zenghui

    2017-04-01

    In order to improve the versatility, accuracy and integrity of the assembly process model of complex products, an assembly process model based on object-oriented hierarchical time Petri Nets is presented. A complete assembly process information model including assembly resources, assembly inspection, time, structure and flexible parts is established, and this model describes the static and dynamic data involved in the assembly process. Through the analysis of three-dimensional assembly process information, the assembly information is hierarchically divided from the whole, the local to the details and the subnet model of different levels of object-oriented Petri Nets is established. The communication problem between Petri subnets is solved by using message database, and it reduces the complexity of system modeling effectively. Finally, the modeling process is presented, and a five layer Petri Nets model is established based on the hoisting process of the engine compartment of a wheeled armored vehicle.

  4. Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    We report on the suitability of statistical model checking for the analysis of quantitative properties of product line models by an extended treatment of earlier work by the authors. The type of analysis that can be performed includes the likelihood of specific product behaviour, the expected...... average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features...... behaviour converge in a discrete-time Markov chain semantics, enabling the analysis of quantitative properties. Technically, a Maude implementation of QFLan, integrated with Microsoft’s SMT constraint solver Z3, is combined with the distributed statistical model checker MultiVeStA, developed by one...

  5. (ajst) statistical mechanics model for orientational

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2: December, 2005. African Journal of Science and Technology (AJST). Science and Engineering Series Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 94 - 101. STATISTICAL MECHANICS MODEL FOR ORIENTATIONAL. MOTION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL RIGID ROTATOR. Malo, J.O.. Department of Physics, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197 ...

  6. Probing NWP model deficiencies by statistical postprocessing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben S.

    2016-01-01

    The objective in this article is twofold. On one hand, a Model Output Statistics (MOS) framework for improved wind speed forecast accuracy is described and evaluated. On the other hand, the approach explored identifies unintuitive explanatory value from a diagnostic variable in an operational num...

  7. Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, Janine Camille [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pebay, Philippe Pierre [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Rojas, Maurice [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled "Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data", funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program.

  8. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mantzouni, Irene; Sørensen, Helle; O'Hara, Robert B.

    2010-01-01

    and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified...... the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are...

  9. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  10. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Self-Thinning Line for Chinese Fir in Southern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiongqing Zhang

    Full Text Available Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.Hook. plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF. Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc. on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.

  11. Analysis of Error Propagation Within Hierarchical Air Combat Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    of the factors (variables), the other variables were fixed at their baseline levels. The red dots with the standard deviation error bars represent...conducted an analysis to determine if the means and variances of MOEs of interest were statistically different by experimental design (Pav, 2015). To do...summarized data. In the summarized data set, we summarize each Design Point (DP) by its mean and standard deviation , over the stochastic replications. The

  12. Modelling the dynamics of an experimental host-pathogen microcosm within a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Lunn

    Full Text Available The advantages of Bayesian statistical approaches, such as flexibility and the ability to acknowledge uncertainty in all parameters, have made them the prevailing method for analysing the spread of infectious diseases in human or animal populations. We introduce a Bayesian approach to experimental host-pathogen systems that shares these attractive features. Since uncertainty in all parameters is acknowledged, existing information can be accounted for through prior distributions, rather than through fixing some parameter values. The non-linear dynamics, multi-factorial design, multiple measurements of responses over time and sampling error that are typical features of experimental host-pathogen systems can also be naturally incorporated. We analyse the dynamics of the free-living protozoan Paramecium caudatum and its specialist bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Our analysis provides strong evidence for a saturable infection function, and we were able to reproduce the two waves of infection apparent in the data by separating the initial inoculum from the parasites released after the first cycle of infection. In addition, the parameter estimates from the hierarchical model can be combined to infer variations in the parasite's basic reproductive ratio across experimental groups, enabling us to make predictions about the effect of resources and host genotype on the ability of the parasite to spread. Even though the high level of variability between replicates limited the resolution of the results, this Bayesian framework has strong potential to be used more widely in experimental ecology.

  13. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  14. Performance modeling, stochastic networks, and statistical multiplexing

    CERN Document Server

    Mazumdar, Ravi R

    2013-01-01

    This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of introducing an appropriate mathematical framework for modeling and analysis as well as understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The models, techniques, and results presented form the core of traffic engineering methods used to design, control and allocate resources in communication networks.The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the importan

  15. Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasser Roudi

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring the parameters in a pairwise model depends on the time bin chosen for binning the data. We also study the effect of the size of the time bin on the model quality itself, again using simulated data. We show that using finer time bins increases the quality of the pairwise model. We offer new ways of deriving the expressions reported in our previous work for assessing the quality of pairwise models.

  16. The null hypothesis of GSEA, and a novel statistical model for competitive gene set analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Debrabant, Birgit

    2017-01-01

    . This is a major handicap to the interpretation of results obtained from a gene set analysis. RESULTS: This work presents a hierarchical statistical model based on the notion of dependence measures, which overcomes this problem. The two levels of the model naturally reflect the modular structure of many gene set......MOTIVATION: Competitive gene set analysis intends to assess whether a specific set of genes is more associated with a trait than the remaining genes. However, the statistical models assumed to date to underly these methods do not enable a clear cut formulation of the competitive null hypothesis...

  17. Time to failure of hierarchical load-transfer models of fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vázquez-Prada, M; Gómez, J B; Moreno, Y

    1999-01-01

    The time to failure, T, of dynamical models of fracture for a hierarchical load-transfer geometry is studied. Using a probabilistic strategy and juxtaposing hierarchical structures of height n, we devise an exact method to compute T, for structures of height n+1. Bounding T, for large n, we are a...... are able to deduce that the time to failure tends to a nonzero value when n tends to infinity. This numerical conclusion is deduced for both power law and exponential breakdown rules....

  18. A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bradford, Mark A.; Veen, Ciska G.F.; Bonis, Anne; Bradford, Ella M.; Classen, Aimee T.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Crowther, T.W.; Long, de Jonathan R.; Freschet, Gregoire T.; Kardol, Paul; Manrubia-Freixa, Marta; Maynard, Daniel S.; Newman, Gregory S.; Logtestijn, Richard S.P.; Viketoft, Maria; Wardle, David A.; Wieder, William R.; Wood, Stephen A.; Putten, van der Wim H.

    2017-01-01

    Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle–climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls

  19. A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bradford, Mark A.; Ciska, G. F.; Bonis, Anne; Bradford, Ella M.; Classen, Aimee T.; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Crowther, Thomas W.; De Long, Jonathan R.; Freschet, Gregoire T.; Kardol, Paul; Manrubia-Freixa, Marta; Maynard, Daniel S.; Newman, Gregory S.; Logtestijn, Richard S.P.; Viketoft, Maria; Wardle, David A.; Wieder, William R.; Wood, Stephen A.; Van Der Putten, Wim H.

    2017-01-01

    Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls

  20. A Hierarchical Latent Stochastic Differential Equation Model for Affective Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oravecz, Zita; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Vandekerckhove, Joachim

    2011-01-01

    In this article a continuous-time stochastic model (the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) is presented to model the perpetually altering states of the core affect, which is a 2-dimensional concept underlying all our affective experiences. The process model that we propose can account for the temporal changes in core affect on the latent level. The key…

  1. Susceptibility of the Potts model in an hierarchical lattice: renormalisation group approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, E. de P. da; Tsallis, C.

    1989-01-01

    Using a real space renormalization group method, the thermal dependence of the susceptibility of the q-state Potts model (ferro-and antiferromagnet) on self-dual Wheatstone-bridge-like hierarchical lattices is calculated. The influence of external fields on the antiferromagnetic phase diagram is discussed as well. (author) [pt

  2. Examining Factors Affecting Science Achievement of Hong Kong in PISA 2006 Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Terence Yuk Ping; Lau, Kwok Chi

    2014-01-01

    This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to examine the influence of a range of factors on the science performances of Hong Kong students in PISA 2006. Hong Kong has been consistently ranked highly in international science assessments, such as Programme for International Student Assessment and Trends in International Mathematics and Science…

  3. Symptom structure of PTSD: support for a hierarchical model separating core PTSD symptoms from dysphoria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rademaker, Arthur R.; van Minnen, Agnes; Ebberink, Freek; van Zuiden, Mirjam; Hagenaars, Muriel A.; Geuze, Elbert

    2012-01-01

    As of yet, no collective agreement has been reached regarding the precise factor structure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Several alternative factor-models have been proposed in the last decades. The current study examined the fit of a hierarchical adaptation of the Simms et al. (2002)

  4. Modeling the marketing strategy-performance relationship : towards an hierarchical marketing performance framework

    OpenAIRE

    Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Zengerink, Evelien

    2001-01-01

    Accurate measurement of marketing performance is an important topic for both marketing academics and marketing managers. Many researchers have recognized that marketing performance measurement should go beyond financial measurement. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework that models marketing performance as a sequence of intermediate performance measures ultimately leading to financial performance. This framework, called the Hierarchical Marketing Performance (HMP) framework, starts ...

  5. A developmental model of hierarchical stage structure in objective moral judgements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, J.; Molenaar, P.C.M.

    1989-01-01

    A hierarchical structural model of moral judgment is proposed in which an S is characterized as occupying a particular moral stage. During development, the S's characteristic stage progresses along a latent, ordered dimension in an age-dependent way. Evaluation of prototypic statements

  6. Hierarchical models for informing general biomass equations with felled tree data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian J. Clough; Matthew B. Russell; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Philip J. Radtke

    2015-01-01

    We present a hierarchical framework that uses a large multispecies felled tree database to inform a set of general models for predicting tree foliage biomass, with accompanying uncertainty, within the FIA database. Results suggest significant prediction uncertainty for individual trees and reveal higher errors when predicting foliage biomass for larger trees and for...

  7. Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.

    2017-10-01

    This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.

  8. Equilibrium statistical mechanics of lattice models

    CERN Document Server

    Lavis, David A

    2015-01-01

    Most interesting and difficult problems in equilibrium statistical mechanics concern models which exhibit phase transitions. For graduate students and more experienced researchers this book provides an invaluable reference source of approximate and exact solutions for a comprehensive range of such models. Part I contains background material on classical thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, together with a classification and survey of lattice models. The geometry of phase transitions is described and scaling theory is used to introduce critical exponents and scaling laws. An introduction is given to finite-size scaling, conformal invariance and Schramm—Loewner evolution. Part II contains accounts of classical mean-field methods. The parallels between Landau expansions and catastrophe theory are discussed and Ginzburg—Landau theory is introduced. The extension of mean-field theory to higher-orders is explored using the Kikuchi—Hijmans—De Boer hierarchy of approximations. In Part III the use of alge...

  9. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  10. Statistical shape and appearance models of bones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkalkan, Nazli; Weinans, Harrie; Zadpoor, Amir A

    2014-03-01

    When applied to bones, statistical shape models (SSM) and statistical appearance models (SAM) respectively describe the mean shape and mean density distribution of bones within a certain population as well as the main modes of variations of shape and density distribution from their mean values. The availability of this quantitative information regarding the detailed anatomy of bones provides new opportunities for diagnosis, evaluation, and treatment of skeletal diseases. The potential of SSM and SAM has been recently recognized within the bone research community. For example, these models have been applied for studying the effects of bone shape on the etiology of osteoarthritis, improving the accuracy of clinical osteoporotic fracture prediction techniques, design of orthopedic implants, and surgery planning. This paper reviews the main concepts, methods, and applications of SSM and SAM as applied to bone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Cellular automata and statistical mechanical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rujan, P.

    1987-01-01

    The authors elaborate on the analogy between the transfer matrix of usual lattice models and the master equation describing the time development of cellular automata. Transient and stationary properties of probabilistic automata are linked to surface and bulk properties, respectively, of restricted statistical mechanical systems. It is demonstrated that methods of statistical physics can be successfully used to describe the dynamic and the stationary behavior of such automata. Some exact results are derived, including duality transformations, exact mappings, disorder, and linear solutions. Many examples are worked out in detail to demonstrate how to use statistical physics in order to construct cellular automata with desired properties. This approach is considered to be a first step toward the design of fully parallel, probabilistic systems whose computational abilities rely on the cooperative behavior of their components

  12. A hierarchical causal modeling for large industrial plants supervision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dziopa, P.; Leyval, L.

    1994-01-01

    A supervision system has to analyse the process current state and the way it will evolve after a modification of the inputs or disturbance. It is proposed to base this analysis on a hierarchy of models, witch differ by the number of involved variables and the abstraction level used to describe their temporal evolution. In a first step, special attention is paid to causal models building, from the most abstract one. Once the hierarchy of models has been build, the most detailed model parameters are estimated. Several models of different abstraction levels can be used for on line prediction. These methods have been applied to a nuclear reprocessing plant. The abstraction level could be chosen on line by the operator. Moreover when an abnormal process behaviour is detected a more detailed model is automatically triggered in order to focus the operator attention on the suspected subsystem. (authors). 11 refs., 11 figs

  13. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Werner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  14. Hierarchical modelling of line commutated power systems used in particle accelerators using Saber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reimund, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper discusses the use of hierarchical simulation models using the program Saber trademark for the prediction of magnet ripple currents generated by the power supply/output filter combination. Modeling of an entire power system connected to output filters and particle accelerator ring magnets will be presented. Special emphasis is made on the modeling of power source imbalances caused by transformer impedance imbalances and utility variances. The affect that these imbalances have on the harmonic content of ripple current is also investigated

  15. Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were

  16. The application of a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    for protons were used as the model input to forecast the flux values on 31 March 2008. Data were trans- formed into logarithmic values and gridded in a 5◦×5◦ longitude and latitude size to fulfill the modelling precondition. A Monte Carlo ..... of Mathematics University of Southampton, http://www.personal.soton.ac.uk/sks/.

  17. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  18. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. I. Biological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological...... improvements like multi-level hierarchical Markov processes with decisions on multiple time scales, efficient methods for parameter estimations at herd level and standard software that has been hardly implemented at all in any replacement model. The aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model...

  19. Object class recognition based on compressive sensing with sparse features inspired by hierarchical model in visual cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pei; Xu, Zhiyong; Yu, Huapeng; Chang, Yongxin; Fu, Chengyu; Shao, Jianxin

    2012-11-01

    According to models of object recognition in cortex, the brain uses a hierarchical approach in which simple, low-level features having high position and scale specificity are pooled and combined into more complex, higher-level features having greater location invariance. At higher levels, spatial structure becomes implicitly encoded into the features themselves, which may overlap, while explicit spatial information is coded more coarsely. In this paper, the importance of sparsity and localized patch features in a hierarchical model inspired by visual cortex is investigated. As in the model of Serre, Wolf, and Poggio, we first apply Gabor filters at all positions and scales; feature complexity and position/scale invariance are then built up by alternating template matching and max pooling operations. In order to improve generalization performance, the sparsity is proposed and data dimension is reduced by means of compressive sensing theory and sparse representation algorithm. Similarly, within computational neuroscience, adding the sparsity on the number of feature inputs and feature selection is critical for learning biologically model from the statistics of natural images. Then, a redundancy dictionary of patch-based features that could distinguish object class from other categories is designed and then object recognition is implemented by the process of iterative optimization. The method is test on the UIUC car database. The success of this approach suggests a proof for the object class recognition in visual cortex.

  20. Clustering and Bayesian hierarchical modeling for the definition of informative prior distributions in hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, K.; Kawa, N.; Hesse, F.; Rubin, Y.

    2017-12-01

    In order to reduce uncertainty in the prediction of subsurface flow and transport processes, practitioners should use all data available. However, classic inverse modeling frameworks typically only make use of information contained in in-situ field measurements to provide estimates of hydrogeological parameters. Such hydrogeological information about an aquifer is difficult and costly to acquire. In this data-scarce context, the transfer of ex-situ information coming from previously investigated sites can be critical for improving predictions by better constraining the estimation procedure. Bayesian inverse modeling provides a coherent framework to represent such ex-situ information by virtue of the prior distribution and combine them with in-situ information from the target site. In this study, we present an innovative data-driven approach for defining such informative priors for hydrogeological parameters at the target site. Our approach consists in two steps, both relying on statistical and machine learning methods. The first step is data selection; it consists in selecting sites similar to the target site. We use clustering methods for selecting similar sites based on observable hydrogeological features. The second step is data assimilation; it consists in assimilating data from the selected similar sites into the informative prior. We use a Bayesian hierarchical model to account for inter-site variability and to allow for the assimilation of multiple types of site-specific data. We present the application and validation of the presented methods on an established database of hydrogeological parameters. Data and methods are implemented in the form of an open-source R-package and therefore facilitate easy use by other practitioners.

  1. Statistical modeling of geopressured geothermal reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, Esmail; Hughes, Richard; White, Christopher D.

    2017-06-01

    Identifying attractive candidate reservoirs for producing geothermal energy requires predictive models. In this work, inspectional analysis and statistical modeling are used to create simple predictive models for a line drive design. Inspectional analysis on the partial differential equations governing this design yields a minimum number of fifteen dimensionless groups required to describe the physics of the system. These dimensionless groups are explained and confirmed using models with similar dimensionless groups but different dimensional parameters. This study models dimensionless production temperature and thermal recovery factor as the responses of a numerical model. These responses are obtained by a Box-Behnken experimental design. An uncertainty plot is used to segment the dimensionless time and develop a model for each segment. The important dimensionless numbers for each segment of the dimensionless time are identified using the Boosting method. These selected numbers are used in the regression models. The developed models are reduced to have a minimum number of predictors and interactions. The reduced final models are then presented and assessed using testing runs. Finally, applications of these models are offered. The presented workflow is generic and can be used to translate the output of a numerical simulator into simple predictive models in other research areas involving numerical simulation.

  2. Comparing the performance of flat and hierarchical Habitat/Land-Cover classification models in a NATURA 2000 site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavish, Yoni; O'Connell, Jerome; Marsh, Charles J.; Tarantino, Cristina; Blonda, Palma; Tomaselli, Valeria; Kunin, William E.

    2018-02-01

    The increasing need for high quality Habitat/Land-Cover (H/LC) maps has triggered considerable research into novel machine-learning based classification models. In many cases, H/LC classes follow pre-defined hierarchical classification schemes (e.g., CORINE), in which fine H/LC categories are thematically nested within more general categories. However, none of the existing machine-learning algorithms account for this pre-defined hierarchical structure. Here we introduce a novel Random Forest (RF) based application of hierarchical classification, which fits a separate local classification model in every branching point of the thematic tree, and then integrates all the different local models to a single global prediction. We applied the hierarchal RF approach in a NATURA 2000 site in Italy, using two land-cover (CORINE, FAO-LCCS) and one habitat classification scheme (EUNIS) that differ from one another in the shape of the class hierarchy. For all 3 classification schemes, both the hierarchical model and a flat model alternative provided accurate predictions, with kappa values mostly above 0.9 (despite using only 2.2-3.2% of the study area as training cells). The flat approach slightly outperformed the hierarchical models when the hierarchy was relatively simple, while the hierarchical model worked better under more complex thematic hierarchies. Most misclassifications came from habitat pairs that are thematically distant yet spectrally similar. In 2 out of 3 classification schemes, the additional constraints of the hierarchical model resulted with fewer such serious misclassifications relative to the flat model. The hierarchical model also provided valuable information on variable importance which can shed light into "black-box" based machine learning algorithms like RF. We suggest various ways by which hierarchical classification models can increase the accuracy and interpretability of H/LC classification maps.

  3. Relating soil geochemical properties to arsenic bioaccessibility through hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Interest in improved understanding of relationships among soil properties and arsenic (As) bioaccessibility has motivated the use of regression models for As bioaccessibility prediction. However, limits in the numbers and types of soils included in previous studies restrict the u...

  4. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...

  5. Statistical Models for Inferring Vegetation Composition from Fossil Pollen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paciorek, C.; McLachlan, J. S.; Shang, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Fossil pollen provide information about vegetation composition that can be used to help understand how vegetation has changed over the past. However, these data have not traditionally been analyzed in a way that allows for statistical inference about spatio-temporal patterns and trends. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model called STEPPS (Spatio-Temporal Empirical Prediction from Pollen in Sediments) that predicts forest composition in southern New England, USA, over the last two millenia based on fossil pollen. The critical relationships between abundances of tree taxa in the pollen record and abundances in actual vegetation are estimated using modern (Forest Inventory Analysis) data and (witness tree) data from colonial records. This gives us two time points at which both pollen and direct vegetation data are available. Based on these relationships, and incorporating our uncertainty about them, we predict forest composition using fossil pollen. We estimate the spatial distribution and relative abundances of tree species and draw inference about how these patterns have changed over time. Finally, we describe ongoing work to extend the modeling to the upper Midwest of the U.S., including an approach to infer tree density and thereby estimate the prairie-forest boundary in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This work is part of the PalEON project, which brings together a team of ecosystem modelers, paleoecologists, and statisticians with the goal of reconstructing vegetation responses to climate during the last two millenia in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The estimates from the statistical modeling will be used to assess and calibrate ecosystem models that are used to project ecological changes in response to global change.

  6. Hierarchical Bayes Modeling of the Customer Satisfaction Index

    OpenAIRE

    Nobuhiko Terui; Shohei Hasegawa; Taemyung Chun; Kosuke Ogawa

    2011-01-01

    Customer Satisfaction Index has been developed in many countries including North America, Europe and Asia last decades, which are based on Americal Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) by the University of Michigan, where the latent factor "Customer Satisfaction" related to the customer loyalty is estimated by a covariance structural model with six factors generated from 17 question items and PLS method. They apply the identical structural model to all companies in order to measure the national...

  7. Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

    The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

  8. A full-capture Hierarchical Bayesian model of Pollock's Closed Robust Design and application to dolphins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert William Rankin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a Hierarchical Bayesian version of Pollock's Closed Robust Design for studying the survival, temporary-migration, and abundance of marked animals. Through simulations and analyses of a bottlenose dolphin photo-identification dataset, we compare several estimation frameworks, including Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML, model-averaging by AICc, as well as Bayesian and Hierarchical Bayesian (HB procedures. Our results demonstrate a number of advantages of the Bayesian framework over other popular methods. First, for simple fixed-effect models, we show the near-equivalence of Bayesian and ML point-estimates and confidence/credibility intervals. Second, we demonstrate how there is an inherent correlation among temporary-migration and survival parameter estimates in the PCRD, and while this can lead to serious convergence issues and singularities among MLEs, we show that the Bayesian estimates were more reliable. Third, we demonstrate that a Hierarchical Bayesian model with carefully thought-out hyperpriors, can lead to similar parameter estimates and conclusions as multi-model inference by AICc model-averaging. This latter point is especially interesting for mark-recapture practitioners, for whom model-uncertainty and multi-model inference have become a major preoccupation. Lastly, we extend the Hierarchical Bayesian PCRD to include full-capture histories (i.e., by modelling a recruitment process and individual-level heterogeneity in detection probabilities, which can have important consequences for the range of phenomena studied by the PCRD, as well as lead to large differences in abundance estimates. For example, we estimate 8%-24% more bottlenose dolphins in the western gulf of Shark Bay than previously estimated by ML and AICc-based model-averaging. Other important extensions are discussed. Our Bayesian PCRD models are written in the BUGS-like JAGS language for easy dissemination and customization by the community of capture

  9. Logarithmic transformed statistical models in calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeis, C.D.

    1975-01-01

    A general type of statistical model used for calibration of instruments having the property that the standard deviations of the observed values increase as a function of the mean value is described. The application to the Helix Counter at the Rocky Flats Plant is primarily from a theoretical point of view. The Helix Counter measures the amount of plutonium in certain types of chemicals. The method described can be used also for other calibrations. (U.S.)

  10. Statistical model for high energy inclusive processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomorisac, B.

    1980-01-01

    We propose a statistical model of inclusive processes. The model is an extension of the model proposed by Salapino and Sugar for the inclusive distributions in rapidity. The model is defined in terms of a random variable on the full phase space of the produced particles and in terms of a Lorentz-invariant probability distribution. We suggest that the Lorentz invariance is broken spontaneously, this may describe the observed anisotropy of the inclusive distributions. Based on this model we calculate the distribution in transverse momentum. An explicit calculation is given of the one-particle inclusive cross sections and the two-particle correlation. The results give a fair representation of the shape of one-particle inclusive cross sections, and positive correlation for the particles emitted. The relevance of our results to experiments is discussed

  11. A hierarchical modeling of information seeking behavior of school ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to investigate the information seeking behavior of school teachers in the public primary schools of rural areas of Nigeria and to draw up a model of their information-seeking behavior. A Cross-sectional survey design research was employed to carry out the research. Findings showed that the ...

  12. Modeling and Optimization in USEF-compliant Hierarchical Energy Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Dinh Bao; Scherpen, Jacquelien M.A.; ter Haar, B.; Bliek, Frits

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a new model and optimization method for balancing in the Universal Smart Energy Framework. We address the problem of minimizing the error between the forecasted and the actual load in the power system that arise from the uncertainties of renewable energy production. The algorithm

  13. Item Response Theory Using Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravand, Hamdollah

    2015-01-01

    Multilevel models (MLMs) are flexible in that they can be employed to obtain item and person parameters, test for differential item functioning (DIF) and capture both local item and person dependence. Papers on the MLM analysis of item response data have focused mostly on theoretical issues where applications have been add-ons to simulation…

  14. Efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling for Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Turek, Daniel; de Valpine, Perry; Paciorek, Christopher J.

    2016-01-01

    Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance latent variables. When potentially many HMMs are embedded within a hierarchical model, this can result in prohibitively long MCMC runtimes. We study combinations of existing methods, which are shown to vastly improve computational efficiency for these hierarchi...

  15. Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

  16. Statistical Modelling of the Soil Dielectric Constant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usowicz, Boguslaw; Marczewski, Wojciech; Bogdan Usowicz, Jerzy; Lipiec, Jerzy

    2010-05-01

    The dielectric constant of soil is the physical property being very sensitive on water content. It funds several electrical measurement techniques for determining the water content by means of direct (TDR, FDR, and others related to effects of electrical conductance and/or capacitance) and indirect RS (Remote Sensing) methods. The work is devoted to a particular statistical manner of modelling the dielectric constant as the property accounting a wide range of specific soil composition, porosity, and mass density, within the unsaturated water content. Usually, similar models are determined for few particular soil types, and changing the soil type one needs switching the model on another type or to adjust it by parametrization of soil compounds. Therefore, it is difficult comparing and referring results between models. The presented model was developed for a generic representation of soil being a hypothetical mixture of spheres, each representing a soil fraction, in its proper phase state. The model generates a serial-parallel mesh of conductive and capacitive paths, which is analysed for a total conductive or capacitive property. The model was firstly developed to determine the thermal conductivity property, and now it is extended on the dielectric constant by analysing the capacitive mesh. The analysis is provided by statistical means obeying physical laws related to the serial-parallel branching of the representative electrical mesh. Physical relevance of the analysis is established electrically, but the definition of the electrical mesh is controlled statistically by parametrization of compound fractions, by determining the number of representative spheres per unitary volume per fraction, and by determining the number of fractions. That way the model is capable covering properties of nearly all possible soil types, all phase states within recognition of the Lorenz and Knudsen conditions. In effect the model allows on generating a hypothetical representative of

  17. Encoding Dissimilarity Data for Statistical Model Building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahba, Grace

    2010-12-01

    We summarize, review and comment upon three papers which discuss the use of discrete, noisy, incomplete, scattered pairwise dissimilarity data in statistical model building. Convex cone optimization codes are used to embed the objects into a Euclidean space which respects the dissimilarity information while controlling the dimension of the space. A "newbie" algorithm is provided for embedding new objects into this space. This allows the dissimilarity information to be incorporated into a Smoothing Spline ANOVA penalized likelihood model, a Support Vector Machine, or any model that will admit Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space components, for nonparametric regression, supervised learning, or semi-supervised learning. Future work and open questions are discussed. The papers are: F. Lu, S. Keles, S. Wright and G. Wahba 2005. A framework for kernel regularization with application to protein clustering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102, 12332-1233.G. Corrada Bravo, G. Wahba, K. Lee, B. Klein, R. Klein and S. Iyengar 2009. Examining the relative influence of familial, genetic and environmental covariate information in flexible risk models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, 8128-8133F. Lu, Y. Lin and G. Wahba. Robust manifold unfolding with kernel regularization. TR 1008, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

  18. Positive affect predicts avoidance goals in social interaction anxiety: testing a hierarchical model of social goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trew, Jennifer L; Alden, Lynn E

    2012-01-01

    Models of self-regulation suggest that social goals may contribute to interpersonal and affective difficulties, yet little research has addressed this issue in the context of social anxiety. The present studies evaluated a hierarchical model of approach and avoidance in the context of social interaction anxiety, with affect as a mediating factor in the relationship between motivational tendencies and social goals. This model was refined in one undergraduate sample (N = 186) and cross-validated in a second sample (N = 195). The findings support hierarchical relationships between motivational tendencies, social interaction anxiety, affect, and social goals, with higher positive affect predicting fewer avoidance goals in both samples. Implications for the treatment of social interaction anxiety are discussed.

  19. Performance Modeling of Network-Attached Storage Device Based Hierarchical Mass Storage Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menasce, Daniel A.; Pentakalos, Odysseas I.

    1995-01-01

    Network attached storage devices improve I/O performance by separating control and data paths and eliminating host intervention during the data transfer phase. Devices are attached to both a high speed network for data transfer and to a slower network for control messages. Hierarchical mass storage systems use disks to cache the most recently used files and a combination of robotic and manually mounted tapes to store the bulk of the files in the file system. This paper shows how queuing network models can be used to assess the performance of hierarchical mass storage systems that use network attached storage devices as opposed to host attached storage devices. Simulation was used to validate the model. The analytic model presented here can be used, among other things, to evaluate the protocols involved in 1/0 over network attached devices.

  20. Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Wu

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.

  1. Loss Performance Modeling for Hierarchical Heterogeneous Wireless Networks With Speed-Sensitive Call Admission Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Qian; Huang, Yue-Cai; Ko, King-Tim

    2011-01-01

    A hierarchical overlay structure is an alternative solution that integrates existing and future heterogeneous wireless networks to provide subscribers with better mobile broadband services. Traffic loss performance in such integrated heterogeneous networks is necessary for an operator's network...... dimensioning and planning. This paper investigates the computationally efficient loss performance modeling for multiservice in hierarchical heterogeneous wireless networks. A speed-sensitive call admission control (CAC) scheme is considered in our model to assign overflowed calls to appropriate tiers....... This approach avoids unnecessary and frequent handoff between cells and reduces signaling overheads. An approximation model with guaranteed accuracy and low computational complexity is presented for the loss performance of multiservice traffic. The accuracy of numerical results is validated by comparing...

  2. A Comparison of Hierarchical and Non-Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches for Fitting Allometric Larch (Larix.spp. Biomass Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongsheng Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate biomass estimations are important for assessing and monitoring forest carbon storage. Bayesian theory has been widely applied to tree biomass models. Recently, a hierarchical Bayesian approach has received increasing attention for improving biomass models. In this study, tree biomass data were obtained by sampling 310 trees from 209 permanent sample plots from larch plantations in six regions across China. Non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches were used to model allometric biomass equations. We found that the total, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage biomass model relationships were statistically significant (p-values < 0.001 for both the non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches, but the hierarchical Bayesian approach increased the goodness-of-fit statistics over the non-hierarchical Bayesian approach. The R2 values of the hierarchical approach were higher than those of the non-hierarchical approach by 0.008, 0.018, 0.020, 0.003, 0.088 and 0.116 for the total tree, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage models, respectively. The hierarchical Bayesian approach significantly improved the accuracy of the biomass model (except for the stem bark and can reflect regional differences by using random parameters to improve the regional scale model accuracy.

  3. Modeling when people quit: Bayesian censored geometric models with hierarchical and latent-mixture extensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Kensuke; Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Lee, Michael D

    2018-02-01

    People often interact with environments that can provide only a finite number of items as resources. Eventually a book contains no more chapters, there are no more albums available from a band, and every Pokémon has been caught. When interacting with these sorts of environments, people either actively choose to quit collecting new items, or they are forced to quit when the items are exhausted. Modeling the distribution of how many items people collect before they quit involves untangling these two possibilities, We propose that censored geometric models are a useful basic technique for modeling the quitting distribution, and, show how, by implementing these models in a hierarchical and latent-mixture framework through Bayesian methods, they can be extended to capture the additional features of specific situations. We demonstrate this approach by developing and testing a series of models in two case studies involving real-world data. One case study deals with people choosing jokes from a recommender system, and the other deals with people completing items in a personality survey.

  4. Probabilistic inference: Task dependency and individual differences of probability weighting revealed by hierarchical Bayesian modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz eBoos

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities by two (likelihoods design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behaviour. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model’s success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modelling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

  5. A Hierarchical Modeling for Reactive Power Optimization With Joint Transmission and Distribution Networks by Curve Fitting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Tao; Li, Cheng; Huang, Can

    2018-01-01

    In order to solve the reactive power optimization with joint transmission and distribution networks, a hierarchical modeling method is proposed in this paper. It allows the reactive power optimization of transmission and distribution networks to be performed separately, leading to a master–slave...... function of the slave model for the master model, which reflects the impacts of each slave model. Second, the transmission and distribution networks are decoupled at feeder buses, and all the distribution networks are coordinated by the master reactive power optimization model to achieve the global...

  6. Client perception of therapeutic factors in group psychotherapy and growth groups: an empirically-based hierarchical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierick, Paul; Lietaer, Germain

    2008-04-01

    To assess group participants' perceptions of therapeutic factors, we developed an extensive questionnaire of 155 items that was administered to 489 members of 78 psychotherapy and growth groups of client-centered/experiential, psychoanalytic, behavioral, Gestalt and drama- and bodily oriented orientations. Using multivariate analyses we found a model that reveals the structure and connections of therapeutic factors as they are differentiated in the experience of the group members. Our model encompasses three hierarchical levels of abstraction: 28 Basic scales that appeared to be structured into seven main scales (Group Cohesion, Interactional Confirmation, Cathartic Self-Revelation, Self-Insight and Progress, Observational Experiences, Getting Directives, and Interactional Confrontation) and two dimensions (Relational Climate and Psychological Work). Validity for these therapeutic factors was found in their grounded content, statistically analyzed constructs, importance ratings, and correlations to intermediate outcome measures.

  7. Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Ivan Aguirre-Salado

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995–2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model’s performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.

  8. The Case for A Hierarchal System Model for Linux Clusters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seager, M; Gorda, B

    2009-06-05

    The computer industry today is no longer driven, as it was in the 40s, 50s and 60s, by High-performance computing requirements. Rather, HPC systems, especially Leadership class systems, sit on top of a pyramid investment mode. Figure 1 shows a representative pyramid investment model for systems hardware. At the base of the pyramid is the huge investment (order 10s of Billions of US Dollars per year) in semiconductor fabrication and process technologies. These costs, which are approximately doubling with every generation, are funded from investments multiple markets: enterprise, desktops, games, embedded and specialized devices. Over and above these base technology investments are investments for critical technology elements such as microprocessor, chipsets and memory ASIC components. Investments for these components are spread across the same markets as the base semiconductor processes investments. These second tier investments are approximately half the size of the lower level of the pyramid. The next technology investment layer up, tier 3, is more focused on scalable computing systems such as those needed for HPC and other markets. These tier 3 technology elements include networking (SAN, WAN and LAN), interconnects and large scalable SMP designs. Above these is tier 4 are relatively small investments necessary to build very large, scalable systems high-end or Leadership class systems. Primary among these are the specialized network designs of vertically integrated systems, etc.

  9. Automatic thoracic anatomy segmentation on CT images using hierarchical fuzzy models and registration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Kaiqiong; Udupa, Jayaram K; Odhner, Dewey; Tong, Yubing; Zhao, Liming; Torigian, Drew A

    2016-03-01

    In an attempt to overcome several hurdles that exist in organ segmentation approaches, the authors previously described a general automatic anatomy recognition (AAR) methodology for segmenting all major organs in multiple body regions body-wide [J. K. Udupa et al., "Body-wide hierarchical fuzzy modeling, recognition, and delineation of anatomy in medical images," Med. Image Anal. 18(5), 752-771 (2014)]. That approach utilized fuzzy modeling strategies, a hierarchical organization of organs, and divided the segmentation task into a recognition step to localize organs which was then followed by a delineation step to demarcate the boundary of organs. It achieved speed and accuracy without employing image/object registration which is commonly utilized in many reported methods, particularly atlas-based. In this paper, our aim is to study how registration may influence performance of the AAR approach. By tightly coupling the recognition and delineation steps, by performing registration in the hierarchical order of the organs, and through several object-specific refinements, the authors demonstrate that improved accuracy for recognition and delineation can be achieved by judicial use of image/object registration. The presented approach consists of three processes: model building, hierarchical recognition, and delineation. Labeled binary images for each organ are registered and aligned into a 3D fuzzy set representing the fuzzy shape model for the organ. The hierarchical relation and mean location relation between different organs are captured in the model. The gray intensity distributions of the corresponding regions of the organ in the original image are also recorded in the model. Following the hierarchical structure and location relation, the fuzzy shape model of different organs is registered to the given target image to achieve object recognition. A fuzzy connectedness delineation method is then employed to obtain the final segmentation result of organs with seed

  10. Statistical Model Checking for Biological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2014-01-01

    Statistical Model Checking (SMC) is a highly scalable simulation-based verification approach for testing and estimating the probability that a stochastic system satisfies a given linear temporal property. The technique has been applied to (discrete and continuous time) Markov chains, stochastic...... timed automata and most recently hybrid systems using the tool Uppaal SMC. In this paper we enable the application of SMC to complex biological systems, by combining Uppaal SMC with ANIMO, a plugin of the tool Cytoscape used by biologists, as well as with SimBiology®, a plugin of Matlab to simulate...

  11. Average Nuclear properties based on statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Jaick, L.J.

    1974-01-01

    The rough properties of nuclei were investigated by statistical model, in systems with the same and different number of protons and neutrons, separately, considering the Coulomb energy in the last system. Some average nuclear properties were calculated based on the energy density of nuclear matter, from Weizsscker-Beth mass semiempiric formulae, generalized for compressible nuclei. In the study of a s surface energy coefficient, the great influence exercised by Coulomb energy and nuclear compressibility was verified. For a good adjust of beta stability lines and mass excess, the surface symmetry energy were established. (M.C.K.) [pt

  12. Emotional intelligence is a second-stratum factor of intelligence: evidence from hierarchical and bifactor models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacCann, Carolyn; Joseph, Dana L; Newman, Daniel A; Roberts, Richard D

    2014-04-01

    This article examines the status of emotional intelligence (EI) within the structure of human cognitive abilities. To evaluate whether EI is a 2nd-stratum factor of intelligence, data were fit to a series of structural models involving 3 indicators each for fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, quantitative reasoning, visual processing, and broad retrieval ability, as well as 2 indicators each for emotion perception, emotion understanding, and emotion management. Unidimensional, multidimensional, hierarchical, and bifactor solutions were estimated in a sample of 688 college and community college students. Results suggest adequate fit for 2 models: (a) an oblique 8-factor model (with 5 traditional cognitive ability factors and 3 EI factors) and (b) a hierarchical solution (with cognitive g at the highest level and EI representing a 2nd-stratum factor that loads onto g at λ = .80). The acceptable relative fit of the hierarchical model confirms the notion that EI is a group factor of cognitive ability, marking the expression of intelligence in the emotion domain. The discussion proposes a possible expansion of Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory to include EI as a 2nd-stratum factor of similar standing to factors such as fluid intelligence and visual processing.

  13. On hierarchical models for visual recognition and learning of objects, scenes, and activities

    CERN Document Server

    Spehr, Jens

    2015-01-01

    In many computer vision applications, objects have to be learned and recognized in images or image sequences. This book presents new probabilistic hierarchical models that allow an efficient representation of multiple objects of different categories, scales, rotations, and views. The idea is to exploit similarities between objects and object parts in order to share calculations and avoid redundant information. Furthermore inference approaches for fast and robust detection are presented. These new approaches combine the idea of compositional and similarity hierarchies and overcome limitations of previous methods. Besides classical object recognition the book shows the use for detection of human poses in a project for gait analysis. The use of activity detection is presented for the design of environments for ageing, to identify activities and behavior patterns in smart homes. In a presented project for parking spot detection using an intelligent vehicle, the proposed approaches are used to hierarchically model...

  14. A Hybrid PO - Higher-Order Hierarchical MoM Formulation using Curvilinear Geometry Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, E.; Meincke, Peter; Breinbjerg, Olav

    2003-01-01

    which implies a very modest memory requirement. Nevertheless, the hierarchical feature of the basis functions maintains the ability to treat small geometrical details efficiently. In addition, the scatterer is modelled with higher-order curved patches which allows accurate modelling of curved surfaces......A very efficient hybrid PO-MoM method has been presented. In contrast to existing methods, the present solution employs higher-order hierarchical basis functions to discretize the MoM and PO currents. This allows to reduce the number of basis functions in both the PO and MoM regions considerably...... with a low number of patches. A numerical result for an offset shaped reflector antenna illustrated the accuracy of the method....

  15. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen

    2016-01-01

    A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM ~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

  16. Finite difference approximations for measure-valued solutions of a hierarchically size-structured population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackleh, Azmy S; Chellamuthu, Vinodh K; Ito, Kazufumi

    2015-04-01

    We study a quasilinear hierarchically size-structured population model presented in [4]. In this model the growth, mortality and reproduction rates are assumed to depend on a function of the population density. In [4] we showed that solutions to this model can become singular (measure-valued) in finite time even if all the individual parameters are smooth. Therefore, in this paper we develop a first order finite difference scheme to compute these measure-valued solutions. Convergence analysis for this method is provided. We also develop a high resolution second order scheme to compute the measure-valued solution of the model and perform a comparative study between the two schemes.

  17. Statistical modeling to support power system planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staid, Andrea

    This dissertation focuses on data-analytic approaches that improve our understanding of power system applications to promote better decision-making. It tackles issues of risk analysis, uncertainty management, resource estimation, and the impacts of climate change. Tools of data mining and statistical modeling are used to bring new insight to a variety of complex problems facing today's power system. The overarching goal of this research is to improve the understanding of the power system risk environment for improved operation, investment, and planning decisions. The first chapter introduces some challenges faced in planning for a sustainable power system. Chapter 2 analyzes the driving factors behind the disparity in wind energy investments among states with a goal of determining the impact that state-level policies have on incentivizing wind energy. Findings show that policy differences do not explain the disparities; physical and geographical factors are more important. Chapter 3 extends conventional wind forecasting to a risk-based focus of predicting maximum wind speeds, which are dangerous for offshore operations. Statistical models are presented that issue probabilistic predictions for the highest wind speed expected in a three-hour interval. These models achieve a high degree of accuracy and their use can improve safety and reliability in practice. Chapter 4 examines the challenges of wind power estimation for onshore wind farms. Several methods for wind power resource assessment are compared, and the weaknesses of the Jensen model are demonstrated. For two onshore farms, statistical models outperform other methods, even when very little information is known about the wind farm. Lastly, chapter 5 focuses on the power system more broadly in the context of the risks expected from tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Risks to U.S. power system infrastructure are simulated under different scenarios of tropical cyclone behavior that may result from climate

  18. Statistical mechanics of helical wormlike chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ya; Pérez, Toni; Li, Wei; Gunton, J. D.; Green, Amanda

    2011-02-01

    We investigate the statistical mechanics of polymers with bending and torsional elasticity described by the helical wormlike model. Noticing that the energy function is factorizable, we provide a numerical method to solve the model using a transfer matrix formulation. The tangent-tangent and binormal-binormal correlation functions have been calculated and displayed rich profiles which are sensitive to the combination of the temperature and the equilibrium torsion. Their behaviors indicate that there is no finite temperature Lifshitz point between the disordered and helical phases. The asymptotic behavior at low temperature has been investigated theoretically and the predictions fit the numerical results very well. Our analysis could be used to understand the statics of dsDNA and other chiral polymers.

  19. Statistical Mechanics of Helical Wormlike Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ya; Perez, Toni; Li, Wei; Gunton, James; Green, Amanda

    2011-03-01

    The bending and torsional elasticities are crucial in determining the static and dynamic properties of ~biopolymers such as dsDNA and sickle hemoglobin. We investigate the statistical mechanics of stiff polymers ~described by the helical wormlike model. We provide a numerical method to solve the model using a transfer matrix formulation. The correlation functions have been calculated and display rich profiles which are sensitive to the combination of the temperature and the equilibrium torsion. The asymptotic behavior at low temperature has been investigated theoretically and the predictions fit the numerical results very well. Our analysis could be used to understand the statics of dsDNA and other chiral polymers. This work is supported by grants from the NSF and Mathers Foundation.

  20. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. II. Optimization model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    improvements. The biological model of the replacement model is described in a previous paper and in this paper the optimization model is described. The model is developed as a prototype for use under practical conditions. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Danish sow......Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological...... herds. It is concluded that the Bayesian updating technique and the hierarchical structure decrease the size of the state space dramatically. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among herds it is concluded that decision support concerning sow replacement only makes sense with parameters...

  1. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  2. Exploring Neural Network Models with Hierarchical Memories and Their Use in Modeling Biological Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusuluri, Sai Teja

    Energy landscapes are often used as metaphors for phenomena in biology, social sciences and finance. Different methods have been implemented in the past for the construction of energy landscapes. Neural network models based on spin glass physics provide an excellent mathematical framework for the construction of energy landscapes. This framework uses a minimal number of parameters and constructs the landscape using data from the actual phenomena. In the past neural network models were used to mimic the storage and retrieval process of memories (patterns) in the brain. With advances in the field now, these models are being used in machine learning, deep learning and modeling of complex phenomena. Most of the past literature focuses on increasing the storage capacity and stability of stored patterns in the network but does not study these models from a modeling perspective or an energy landscape perspective. This dissertation focuses on neural network models both from a modeling perspective and from an energy landscape perspective. I firstly show how the cellular interconversion phenomenon can be modeled as a transition between attractor states on an epigenetic landscape constructed using neural network models. The model allows the identification of a reaction coordinate of cellular interconversion by analyzing experimental and simulation time course data. Monte Carlo simulations of the model show that the initial phase of cellular interconversion is a Poisson process and the later phase of cellular interconversion is a deterministic process. Secondly, I explore the static features of landscapes generated using neural network models, such as sizes of basins of attraction and densities of metastable states. The simulation results show that the static landscape features are strongly dependent on the correlation strength and correlation structure between patterns. Using different hierarchical structures of the correlation between patterns affects the landscape features

  3. MSMBuilder: Statistical Models for Biomolecular Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, Matthew P; Sultan, Mohammad M; Hernández, Carlos X; Husic, Brooke E; Eastman, Peter; Schwantes, Christian R; Beauchamp, Kyle A; McGibbon, Robert T; Pande, Vijay S

    2017-01-10

    MSMBuilder is a software package for building statistical models of high-dimensional time-series data. It is designed with a particular focus on the analysis of atomistic simulations of biomolecular dynamics such as protein folding and conformational change. MSMBuilder is named for its ability to construct Markov state models (MSMs), a class of models that has gained favor among computational biophysicists. In addition to both well-established and newer MSM methods, the package includes complementary algorithms for understanding time-series data such as hidden Markov models and time-structure based independent component analysis. MSMBuilder boasts an easy to use command-line interface, as well as clear and consistent abstractions through its Python application programming interface. MSMBuilder was developed with careful consideration for compatibility with the broader machine learning community by following the design of scikit-learn. The package is used primarily by practitioners of molecular dynamics, but is just as applicable to other computational or experimental time-series measurements. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  5. CHIMERA: Top-down model for hierarchical, overlapping and directed cluster structures in directed and weighted complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, R.

    2016-11-01

    In many networks discovered in biology, medicine, neuroscience and other disciplines special properties like a certain degree distribution and hierarchical cluster structure (also called communities) can be observed as general organizing principles. Detecting the cluster structure of an unknown network promises to identify functional subdivisions, hierarchy and interactions on a mesoscale. It is not trivial choosing an appropriate detection algorithm because there are multiple network, cluster and algorithmic properties to be considered. Edges can be weighted and/or directed, clusters overlap or build a hierarchy in several ways. Algorithms differ not only in runtime, memory requirements but also in allowed network and cluster properties. They are based on a specific definition of what a cluster is, too. On the one hand, a comprehensive network creation model is needed to build a large variety of benchmark networks with different reasonable structures to compare algorithms. On the other hand, if a cluster structure is already known, it is desirable to separate effects of this structure from other network properties. This can be done with null model networks that mimic an observed cluster structure to improve statistics on other network features. A third important application is the general study of properties in networks with different cluster structures, possibly evolving over time. Currently there are good benchmark and creation models available. But what is left is a precise sandbox model to build hierarchical, overlapping and directed clusters for undirected or directed, binary or weighted complex random networks on basis of a sophisticated blueprint. This gap shall be closed by the model CHIMERA (Cluster Hierarchy Interconnection Model for Evaluation, Research and Analysis) which will be introduced and described here for the first time.

  6. Market Competitiveness Evaluation of Mechanical Equipment with a Pairwise Comparisons Hierarchical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Fujun

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides a description of how market competitiveness evaluations concerning mechanical equipment can be made in the context of multi-criteria decision environments. It is assumed that, when we are evaluating the market competitiveness, there are limited number of candidates with some required qualifications, and the alternatives will be pairwise compared on a ratio scale. The qualifications are depicted as criteria in hierarchical structure. A hierarchical decision model called PCbHDM was used in this study based on an analysis of its desirable traits. Illustration and comparison shows that the PCbHDM provides a convenient and effective tool for evaluating the market competitiveness of mechanical equipment. The researchers and practitioners might use findings of this paper in application of PCbHDM.

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for clustering with variable relevance determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Christopher; Holmes, Chris

    2011-07-01

    We propose a hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for clustering when some of the covariates are assumed to be of varying relevance to the clustering problem. This can be thought of as an issue in variable selection for unsupervised learning. We demonstrate that by defining a hierarchical population based nonparametric prior on the cluster locations scaled by the inverse covariance matrices of the likelihood we arrive at a 'sparsity prior' representation which admits a conditionally conjugate prior. This allows us to perform full Gibbs sampling to obtain posterior distributions over parameters of interest including an explicit measure of each covariate's relevance and a distribution over the number of potential clusters present in the data. This also allows for individual cluster specific variable selection. We demonstrate improved inference on a number of canonical problems.

  8. Integrative analysis of functional genomic annotations and sequencing data to identify rare causal variants via hierarchical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela eCapanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the small number of rare causal variants contributing to disease has beena major focus of investigation in recent years, but represents a formidable statisticalchallenge due to the rare frequencies with which these variants are observed. In thiscommentary we draw attention to a formal statistical framework, namely hierarchicalmodeling, to combine functional genomic annotations with sequencing data with theobjective of enhancing our ability to identify rare causal variants. Using simulations weshow that in all configurations studied, the hierarchical modeling approach has superiordiscriminatory ability compared to a recently proposed aggregate measure of deleteriousness,the Combined Annotation-Dependent Depletion (CADD score, supportingour premise that aggregate functional genomic measures can more accurately identifycausal variants when used in conjunction with sequencing data through a hierarchicalmodeling approach

  9. Modeling for mechanical response of CICC by hierarchical approach and ABAQUS simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.X.; Wang, X.; Gao, Y.W.; Zhou, Y.H.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop an analytical model based on the hierarchical approach of classical wire rope theory. • The numerical model is set up through ABAQUS to verify and enhance the theoretical model. • We calculate two concerned mechanical response: global displacement–load curve and local axial strain distribution. • Elastic–plasticity is the main character in loading curve, and the friction between adjacent strands plays a significant role in the distribution map. -- Abstract: An unexpected degradation frequently occurs in superconducting cable (CICC) due to the mechanical response (deformation) when suffering from electromagnetic load and thermal load during operation. Because of the cable's hierarchical twisted configuration, it is difficult to quantitatively model the mechanical response. In addition, the local mechanical characteristics such as strain distribution could be hardly monitored via experimental method. To address this issue, we develop an analytical model based on the hierarchical approach of classical wire rope theory. This approach follows the algorithm advancing successively from n + 1 stage (e.g. 3 × 3 × 5 subcable) to n stage (e.g. 3 × 3 subcable). There are no complicated numerical procedures required in this model. Meanwhile, the numerical model is set up through ABAQUS to verify and enhance the theoretical model. Subsequently, we calculate two concerned mechanical responses: global displacement–load curve and local axial strain distribution. We find that in the global displacement–load curve, the elastic–plasticity is the main character, and the higher-level cable shows enhanced nonlinear characteristics. As for the local distribution, the friction among adjacent strands plays a significant role in this map. The magnitude of friction strongly influences the regularity of the distribution at different twisted stages. More detailed results are presented in this paper

  10. Bayesian hierarchical model for transcriptional module discovery by jointly modeling gene expression and ChIP-chip data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivaganesan Siva

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transcriptional modules (TM consist of groups of co-regulated genes and transcription factors (TF regulating their expression. Two high-throughput (HT experimental technologies, gene expression microarrays and Chromatin Immuno-Precipitation on Chip (ChIP-chip, are capable of producing data informative about expression regulatory mechanism on a genome scale. The optimal approach to joint modeling of data generated by these two complementary biological assays, with the goal of identifying and characterizing TMs, is an important open problem in computational biomedicine. Results We developed and validated a novel probabilistic model and related computational procedure for identifying TMs by jointly modeling gene expression and ChIP-chip binding data. We demonstrate an improved functional coherence of the TMs produced by the new method when compared to either analyzing expression or ChIP-chip data separately or to alternative approaches for joint analysis. We also demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to identify novel regulatory relationships not revealed by ChIP-chip data alone. The new computational procedure can be used in more or less the same way as one would use simple hierarchical clustering without performing any special transformation of data prior to the analysis. The R and C-source code for implementing our algorithm is incorporated within the R package gimmR which is freely available at http://eh3.uc.edu/gimm. Conclusion Our results indicate that, whenever available, ChIP-chip and expression data should be analyzed within the unified probabilistic modeling framework, which will likely result in improved clusters of co-regulated genes and improved ability to detect meaningful regulatory relationships. Given the good statistical properties and the ease of use, the new computational procedure offers a worthy new tool for reconstructing transcriptional regulatory networks.

  11. Statistical Shape Modeling of Cam Femoroacetabular Impingement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, Michael D.; Dater, Manasi; Whitaker, Ross; Jurrus, Elizabeth R.; Peters, Christopher L.; Anderson, Andrew E.

    2013-10-01

    In this study, statistical shape modeling (SSM) was used to quantify three-dimensional (3D) variation and morphologic differences between femurs with and without cam femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). 3D surfaces were generated from CT scans of femurs from 41 controls and 30 cam FAI patients. SSM correspondence particles were optimally positioned on each surface using a gradient descent energy function. Mean shapes for control and patient groups were defined from the resulting particle configurations. Morphological differences between group mean shapes and between the control mean and individual patients were calculated. Principal component analysis was used to describe anatomical variation present in both groups. The first 6 modes (or principal components) captured statistically significant shape variations, which comprised 84% of cumulative variation among the femurs. Shape variation was greatest in femoral offset, greater trochanter height, and the head-neck junction. The mean cam femur shape protruded above the control mean by a maximum of 3.3 mm with sustained protrusions of 2.5-3.0 mm along the anterolateral head-neck junction and distally along the anterior neck, corresponding well with reported cam lesion locations and soft-tissue damage. This study provides initial evidence that SSM can describe variations in femoral morphology in both controls and cam FAI patients and may be useful for developing new measurements of pathological anatomy. SSM may also be applied to characterize cam FAI severity and provide templates to guide patient-specific surgical resection of bone.

  12. Hierarchical graphs for better annotations of rule-based models of biochemical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Bin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hlavacek, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    In the graph-based formalism of the BioNetGen language (BNGL), graphs are used to represent molecules, with a colored vertex representing a component of a molecule, a vertex label representing the internal state of a component, and an edge representing a bond between components. Components of a molecule share the same color. Furthermore, graph-rewriting rules are used to represent molecular interactions, with a rule that specifies addition (removal) of an edge representing a class of association (dissociation) reactions and with a rule that specifies a change of vertex label representing a class of reactions that affect the internal state of a molecular component. A set of rules comprises a mathematical/computational model that can be used to determine, through various means, the system-level dynamics of molecular interactions in a biochemical system. Here, for purposes of model annotation, we propose an extension of BNGL that involves the use of hierarchical graphs to represent (1) relationships among components and subcomponents of molecules and (2) relationships among classes of reactions defined by rules. We illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to naturally document the structural organization of the functional components and subcomponents of two proteins: the protein tyrosine kinase Lck and the T cell receptor (TCR)/CD3 complex. Likewise, we illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to document the similarity of two related rules for kinase-catalyzed phosphorylation of a protein substrate. We also demonstrate how a hierarchical graph representing a protein can be encoded in an XML-based format.

  13. Hierarchical Multi-Scale Approach To Validation and Uncertainty Quantification of Hyper-Spectral Image Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.; Graff, David; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2016-09-17

    Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensor level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.

  14. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. I. Biological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological...... improvements like multi-level hierarchical Markov processes with decisions on multiple time scales, efficient methods for parameter estimations at herd level and standard software that has been hardly implemented at all in any replacement model. The aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model...... that really uses all these methodological improvements. In this paper, the biological model describing the performance and feed intake of sows is presented. In particular, estimation of herd specific parameters is emphasized. The optimization model is described in a subsequent paper...

  15. Statistical model for OCT image denoising

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Muxingzi

    2017-08-01

    Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive technique with a large array of applications in clinical imaging and biological tissue visualization. However, the presence of speckle noise affects the analysis of OCT images and their diagnostic utility. In this article, we introduce a new OCT denoising algorithm. The proposed method is founded on a numerical optimization framework based on maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the noise-free OCT image. It combines a novel speckle noise model, derived from local statistics of empirical spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) data, with a Huber variant of total variation regularization for edge preservation. The proposed approach exhibits satisfying results in terms of speckle noise reduction as well as edge preservation, at reduced computational cost.

  16. Current algebra, statistical mechanics and quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela Mendes, R.

    2017-11-01

    Results obtained in the past for free boson systems at zero and nonzero temperatures are revisited to clarify the physical meaning of current algebra reducible functionals which are associated to systems with density fluctuations, leading to observable effects on phase transitions. To use current algebra as a tool for the formulation of quantum statistical mechanics amounts to the construction of unitary representations of diffeomorphism groups. Two mathematical equivalent procedures exist for this purpose. One searches for quasi-invariant measures on configuration spaces, the other for a cyclic vector in Hilbert space. Here, one argues that the second approach is closer to the physical intuition when modelling complex systems. An example of application of the current algebra methodology to the pairing phenomenon in two-dimensional fermion systems is discussed.

  17. Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.

  18. Hierarchical model generation for architecture reconstruction using laser-scanned point clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Xiaojuan; Wang, Yinghui; Zhang, Xiaopeng

    2014-06-01

    Architecture reconstruction using terrestrial laser scanner is a prevalent and challenging research topic. We introduce an automatic, hierarchical architecture generation framework to produce full geometry of architecture based on a novel combination of facade structures detection, detailed windows propagation, and hierarchical model consolidation. Our method highlights the generation of geometric models automatically fitting the design information of the architecture from sparse, incomplete, and noisy point clouds. First, the planar regions detected in raw point clouds are interpreted as three-dimensional clusters. Then, the boundary of each region extracted by projecting the points into its corresponding two-dimensional plane is classified to obtain detailed shape structure elements (e.g., windows and doors). Finally, a polyhedron model is generated by calculating the proposed local structure model, consolidated structure model, and detailed window model. Experiments on modeling the scanned real-life buildings demonstrate the advantages of our method, in which the reconstructed models not only correspond to the information of architectural design accurately, but also satisfy the requirements for visualization and analysis.

  19. Configurable product design considering the transition of multi-hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Bin; Qiu, Lemiao; Zhang, Shuyou; Tan, Jianrong; Cheng, Jin

    2013-03-01

    The current research of configurable product design mainly focuses on how to convert a predefined set of components into a valid set of product structures. With the scale and complexity of configurable products increasing, the interdependencies between customer demands and product structures grow up as well. The result is that existing product structures fails to satisfy the individual customer requirements and hence product variants are needed. This paper is aimed to build a bridge between customer demands and product structures in order to make demand-driven fast response design feasible. First of all, multi-hierarchical models of configurable product design are established with customer demand model, technical requirement model and product structure model. Then, the transition of multi-hierarchical models among customer demand model, technical requirement model and product structure model is solved with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and the algorithm of multi-level matching. Finally, optimal structure according to the customer demands is obtained with the calculation of Euclidean distance and similarity of some cases. In practice, the configuration design of a clamping unit of injection molding machine successfully performs an optimal search strategy for the product variants with reasonable satisfaction to individual customer demands. The proposed method can automatically generate a configuration design with better alternatives for each product structures, and shorten the time of finding the configuration of a product.

  20. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) of longitudinal brain structural and cognitive changes in alcohol-dependent individuals during sobriety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yeh, P.H.; Gazdzinski, S.; Durazzo, T.C.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) can reveal complex relationships between longitudinal outcome measures and their covariates under proper consideration of potentially unequal error variances. We demonstrate the application of FILM to the study of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-der...

  1. Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Korea Estimated with a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Maengseok; Lee, Youngjo; Oh, Seungyoung; Chu, Chaeshin; Gwack, Jin; Youn, Seung-Ki; Cho, Shin Hyeong; Lee, Won Ja; Huh, Sun

    2012-12-01

    The spatial and temporal correlations were estimated to determine Plasmodium vivax malarial transmission pattern in Korea from 2001-2011 with the hierarchical generalized linear model. Malaria cases reported to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2011 were analyzed with descriptive statistics and the incidence was estimated according to age, sex, and year by the hierarchical generalized linear model. Spatial and temporal correlation was estimated and the best model was selected from nine models. Results were presented as diseases map according to age and sex. The incidence according to age was highest in the 20-25-year-old group (244.52 infections/100,000). Mean ages of infected males and females were 31.0 years and 45.3 years with incidences 7.8 infections/100,000 and 7.1 infections/100,000 after estimation. The mean month for infection was mid-July with incidence 10.4 infections/100,000. The best-fit model showed that there was a spatial and temporal correlation in the malarial transmission. Incidence was very low or negligible in areas distant from the demilitarized zone between Republic of Korea and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) if the 20-29-year-old male group was omitted in the diseases map. Malarial transmission in a region in Korea was influenced by the incidence in adjacent regions in recent years. Since malaria in Korea mainly originates from mosquitoes from North Korea, there will be continuous decrease if there is no further outbreak in North Korea.

  2. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. II. Optimization model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    improvements. The biological model of the replacement model is described in a previous paper and in this paper the optimization model is described. The model is developed as a prototype for use under practical conditions. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Danish sow......Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological...

  3. VISTopic: A visual analytics system for making sense of large document collections using hierarchical topic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Effective analysis of large text collections remains a challenging problem given the growing volume of available text data. Recently, text mining techniques have been rapidly developed for automatically extracting key information from massive text data. Topic modeling, as one of the novel techniques that extracts a thematic structure from documents, is widely used to generate text summarization and foster an overall understanding of the corpus content. Although powerful, this technique may not be directly applicable for general analytics scenarios since the topics and topic–document relationship are often presented probabilistically in models. Moreover, information that plays an important role in knowledge discovery, for example, times and authors, is hardly reflected in topic modeling for comprehensive analysis. In this paper, we address this issue by presenting a visual analytics system, VISTopic, to help users make sense of large document collections based on topic modeling. VISTopic first extracts a set of hierarchical topics using a novel hierarchical latent tree model (HLTM (Liu et al., 2014. In specific, a topic view accounting for the model features is designed for overall understanding and interactive exploration of the topic organization. To leverage multi-perspective information for visual analytics, VISTopic further provides an evolution view to reveal the trend of topics and a document view to show details of topical documents. Three case studies based on the dataset of IEEE VIS conference demonstrate the effectiveness of our system in gaining insights from large document collections. Keywords: Topic-modeling, Text visualization, Visual analytics

  4. New advances in statistical modeling and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, Rui; Oliveira, Maria; Paulino, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    This volume presents selected papers from the XIXth Congress of the Portuguese Statistical Society, held in the town of Nazaré, Portugal, from September 28 to October 1, 2011. All contributions were selected after a thorough peer-review process. It covers a broad range of papers in the areas of statistical science, probability and stochastic processes, extremes and statistical applications.

  5. Oscillatory Behavior of Critical Amplitudes of the Gaussian Model on a Hierarchical Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Knezevic, Milan; Knezevic, Dragica

    1999-01-01

    We studied oscillatory behavior of critical amplitudes for the Gaussian model on a hierarchical structure presented by a modified Sierpinski gasket lattice. This model is known to display non-standard critical behavior on the lattice under study. The leading singular behavior of the correlation length $\\xi$ near the critical coupling $K=K_c$ is modulated by a function which is periodic in $\\ln|\\ln(K_c-K)|$. We have also shown that the common finite-size scaling hypothesis, according to which ...

  6. Unsupervised Learning of Structural Representation of Percussive Audio Using a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antich, Jose Luis Diez; Paterna, Mattia; Marxer, Richard

    2016-01-01

    single-linkage clustering, metrical regularity calculation and beat detection. 2) The approx. equal length blocks are clustered into k clusters and the resulting cluster sequence is modelled by transition probabilities between clusters. The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model is employed......A method is proposed that extracts a structural representation of percussive audio in an unsupervised manner. It consists of two parts: 1) The input signal is segmented into blocks of approximately even duration, aligned to a metrical grid, using onset and timbre feature extraction, agglomerative...

  7. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  8. A conceptual modeling framework for discrete event simulation using hierarchical control structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furian, N; O'Sullivan, M; Walker, C; Vössner, S; Neubacher, D

    2015-08-01

    Conceptual Modeling (CM) is a fundamental step in a simulation project. Nevertheless, it is only recently that structured approaches towards the definition and formulation of conceptual models have gained importance in the Discrete Event Simulation (DES) community. As a consequence, frameworks and guidelines for applying CM to DES have emerged and discussion of CM for DES is increasing. However, both the organization of model-components and the identification of behavior and system control from standard CM approaches have shortcomings that limit CM's applicability to DES. Therefore, we discuss the different aspects of previous CM frameworks and identify their limitations. Further, we present the Hierarchical Control Conceptual Modeling framework that pays more attention to the identification of a models' system behavior, control policies and dispatching routines and their structured representation within a conceptual model. The framework guides the user step-by-step through the modeling process and is illustrated by a worked example.

  9. Beyond Negative Affectivity: A Hierarchical Model of Global and Transdiagnostic Vulnerabilities for Emotional Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulus, Daniel J; Talkovsky, Alexander M; Heggeness, Luke F; Norton, Peter J

    2015-01-01

    Negative affectivity (NA) has been linked to anxiety and depression (DEP). Identifying the common factors between anxiety and DEP is important when explaining their overlap and comorbidity. However, general factors such as NA tend to have differential relationships with different disorders, suggesting the need to identify mediators in order to explicate these relationships. The current study tests a theoretically and empirically derived hierarchical model of emotional disorders including both a general factor (NA) and transdiagnostic risk factors [anxiety sensitivity (AS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IoU)] using structural equation modeling. AS was tested as a mid-level factor between NA and panic disorder/agoraphobia, while IoU was tested as a mid-level factor between NA and social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and DEP. Data from 642 clinical outpatients with a heterogeneous presentation of emotional disorders were available for analysis. The hierarchical model fits the data adequately. Moreover, while a simplified model removing AS and IoU fits the data well, it resulted in a significant loss of information for all latent disorder constructs. Data were unavailable to estimate post-traumatic stress disorder or specific phobias. Future work will need to extend to other emotional disorders. This study demonstrates the importance of both general factors that link disorders together and semi-specific transdiagnostic factors partially explaining their heterogeneity. Including these mid-level factors in hierarchical models of psychopathology can help account for additional variance and help to clarify the relationship between disorder constructs and NA.

  10. Efficient Actor-Critic Algorithm with Hierarchical Model Learning and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, QiMing

    2016-01-01

    To improve the convergence rate and the sample efficiency, two efficient learning methods AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP (AC-HMLP with ℓ 2-regularization) are proposed by combining actor-critic algorithm with hierarchical model learning and planning. The hierarchical models consisting of the local and the global models, which are learned at the same time during learning of the value function and the policy, are approximated by local linear regression (LLR) and linear function approximation (LFA), respectively. Both the local model and the global model are applied to generate samples for planning; the former is used only if the state-prediction error does not surpass the threshold at each time step, while the latter is utilized at the end of each episode. The purpose of taking both models is to improve the sample efficiency and accelerate the convergence rate of the whole algorithm through fully utilizing the local and global information. Experimentally, AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP are compared with three representative algorithms on two Reinforcement Learning (RL) benchmark problems. The results demonstrate that they perform best in terms of convergence rate and sample efficiency. PMID:27795704

  11. Efficient Actor-Critic Algorithm with Hierarchical Model Learning and Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the convergence rate and the sample efficiency, two efficient learning methods AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP (AC-HMLP with l2-regularization are proposed by combining actor-critic algorithm with hierarchical model learning and planning. The hierarchical models consisting of the local and the global models, which are learned at the same time during learning of the value function and the policy, are approximated by local linear regression (LLR and linear function approximation (LFA, respectively. Both the local model and the global model are applied to generate samples for planning; the former is used only if the state-prediction error does not surpass the threshold at each time step, while the latter is utilized at the end of each episode. The purpose of taking both models is to improve the sample efficiency and accelerate the convergence rate of the whole algorithm through fully utilizing the local and global information. Experimentally, AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP are compared with three representative algorithms on two Reinforcement Learning (RL benchmark problems. The results demonstrate that they perform best in terms of convergence rate and sample efficiency.

  12. Hierarchical Self Assembly of Patterns from the Robinson Tilings: DNA Tile Design in an Enhanced Tile Assembly Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Jennifer E.; Liu, Wenyan; Seeman, Nadrian C.

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a hierarchical self assembly algorithm that produces the quasiperiodic patterns found in the Robinson tilings and suggest a practical implementation of this algorithm using DNA origami tiles. We modify the abstract Tile Assembly Model, (aTAM), to include active signaling and glue activation in response to signals to coordinate the hierarchical assembly of Robinson patterns of arbitrary size from a small set of tiles according to the tile substitution algorithm that generates them. Enabling coordinated hierarchical assembly in the aTAM makes possible the efficient encoding of the recursive process of tile substitution. PMID:23226722

  13. Hierarchical Self Assembly of Patterns from the Robinson Tilings: DNA Tile Design in an Enhanced Tile Assembly Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Jennifer E; Liu, Wenyan; Seeman, Nadrian C

    2012-06-01

    We introduce a hierarchical self assembly algorithm that produces the quasiperiodic patterns found in the Robinson tilings and suggest a practical implementation of this algorithm using DNA origami tiles. We modify the abstract Tile Assembly Model, (aTAM), to include active signaling and glue activation in response to signals to coordinate the hierarchical assembly of Robinson patterns of arbitrary size from a small set of tiles according to the tile substitution algorithm that generates them. Enabling coordinated hierarchical assembly in the aTAM makes possible the efficient encoding of the recursive process of tile substitution.

  14. A Hierarchical Feature Extraction Model for Multi-Label Mechanical Patent Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Hu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Various studies have focused on feature extraction methods for automatic patent classification in recent years. However, most of these approaches are based on the knowledge from experts in related domains. Here we propose a hierarchical feature extraction model (HFEM for multi-label mechanical patent classification, which is able to capture both local features of phrases as well as global and temporal semantics. First, a n-gram feature extractor based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs is designed to extract salient local lexical-level features. Next, a long dependency feature extraction model based on the bidirectional long–short-term memory (BiLSTM neural network model is proposed to capture sequential correlations from higher-level sequence representations. Then the HFEM algorithm and its hierarchical feature extraction architecture are detailed. We establish the training, validation and test datasets, containing 72,532, 18,133, and 2679 mechanical patent documents, respectively, and then check the performance of HFEMs. Finally, we compared the results of the proposed HFEM and three other single neural network models, namely CNN, long–short-term memory (LSTM, and BiLSTM. The experimental results indicate that our proposed HFEM outperforms the other compared models in both precision and recall.

  15. Hierarchical modeling of plasma and transport phenomena in a dielectric barrier discharge reactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bali, N.; Aggelopoulos, C. A.; Skouras, E. D.; Tsakiroglou, C. D.; Burganos, V. N.

    2017-12-01

    A novel dual-time hierarchical approach is developed to link the plasma process to macroscopic transport phenomena in the interior of a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) reactor that has been used for soil remediation (Aggelopoulos et al 2016 Chem. Eng. J. 301 353–61). The generation of active species by plasma reactions is simulated at the microseconds (µs) timescale, whereas convection and thermal conduction are simulated at the macroscopic (minutes) timescale. This hierarchical model is implemented in order to investigate the influence of the plasma DBD process on the transport and reaction mechanisms during remediation of polluted soil. In the microscopic model, the variables of interest include the plasma-induced reactive concentrations, while in the macroscopic approach, the temperature distribution, and the velocity field both inside the discharge gap and within the polluted soil material as well. For the latter model, the Navier–Stokes and Darcy Brinkman equations for the transport phenomena in the porous domain are solved numerically using a FEM software. The effective medium theory is employed to provide estimates of the effective time-evolving and three-phase transport properties in the soil sample. Model predictions considering the temporal evolution of the plasma remediation process are presented and compared with corresponding experimental data.

  16. A hierarchical modeling approach for estimating national distributions of chemicals in public drinking water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Song S; Schulman, Andrew; Koplos, Jonathan; Kotros, Alison; Kellar, Penny

    2004-02-15

    Water quality studies often include the analytical challenge of incorporating censored data and quantifying error of estimation. Many analytical methods exist for estimating distribution parameters when censored data are present. This paper presents a Bayesian-based hierarchical model for estimating the national distribution of the mean concentrations of chemicals occurring in U.S. public drinking water systems using fluoride and thallium as examples. The data used are Safe Drinking Water Act compliance monitoring data (with a significant proportion of left-censored data). The model, which assumes log-normality, was evaluated using simulated data sets generated from a series of Weibull distributions to illustrate the robustness of the model. The hierarchical model is easily implemented using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. In addition, the Bayesian method is able to quantify the uncertainty in the estimated cumulative density function. The estimated fluoride and thallium national distributions are presented. Results from this study can be used to develop prior distributions for future U.S. drinking water regulatory studies of contaminant occurrence.

  17. A model of shape memory materials with hierarchical twinning: Statics and dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saxena, A.; Bishop, A.R. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Shenoy, S.R. [International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Wu, Y.; Lookman, T. [Western Ontario Univ., London, Ontario (Canada). Dept. of Applied Mathematics

    1995-07-01

    We consider a model of shape memory material in which hierarchical twinning near the habit plane (austenite-martensite interface) is a new and crucial ingredient. The model includes (1) a triple-well potential ({phi} model) in local shear strain, (2) strain gradient terms up to second order in strain and fourth order in gradient, and (3) all symmetry allowed compositional fluctuation induced strain gradient terms. The last term favors hierarchy which enables communication between macroscopic (cm) and microscopic ({Angstrom}) regions essential for shape memory. Hierarchy also stabilizes between formation (critical pattern of twins). External stress or pressure (pattern) modulates the spacing of domain walls. Therefore the ``pattern`` is encoded in the modulated hierarchical variation of the depth and width of the twins. This hierarchy of length scales provides a hierarchy of time scales and thus the possibility of non-exponential decay. The four processes of the complete shape memory cycle -- write, record, erase and recall -- are explained within this model. Preliminary results based on 2D Langevin dynamics are shown for tweed and hierarchy formation.

  18. Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, Rebecca Yates; Browna, Elizabeth R.

    2016-01-01

    Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre-exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population-level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood-based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual-level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson-distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. PMID:26869051

  19. Aplication re-engineering, the multi-parametrical hierarchical optimal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spišák Ján

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The target of this contribution is to define a new working out way, from re-engineering of production processes coming from the large-dimensional optimalizing problems, with applying the multi-parametrical hierarchical optimal model, builds up from 3 levels ( technology, logistics, economy. The designed working out way comes from generalizing obtained experiences from application the re-engineering in concrete conditions of processes working a processing row material (re-engineering the plant Siderit, Slovmag company and taking in consideration specific conditions of state enterprise experience in Slovak republic.

  20. Neighborhood Predictors of Intimate Partner Violence: A Theory-Informed Analysis Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voith, Laura A; Brondino, Michael J

    2017-09-01

    Due to high prevalence rates and deleterious effects on individuals, families, and communities, intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem. Because IPV occurs in the context of communities and neighborhoods, research must examine the broader environment in addition to individual-level factors to successfully facilitate behavior change. Drawing from the Social Determinants of Health framework and Social Disorganization Theory, neighborhood predictors of IPV were tested using hierarchical linear modeling. Results indicated that concentrated disadvantage and female-to-male partner violence were robust predictors of women's IPV victimization. Implications for theory, practice, and policy, and future research are discussed. © Society for Community Research and Action 2017.

  1. Hierarchical competition models with the Allee effect II: the case of immigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assas, Laila; Dennis, Brian; Elaydi, Saber; Kwessi, Eddy; Livadiotis, George

    2015-01-01

    This is part II of an earlier paper that dealt with hierarchical models with the Allee effect but with no immigration. In this paper, we greatly simplify the proofs in part I and provide a proof of the global dynamics of the non-hyperbolic cases that were previously conjectured. Then, we show how immigration to one of the species or to both would, drastically, change the dynamics of the system. It is shown that if the level of immigration to one or to both species is above a specified level, then there will be no extinction region where both species go to extinction.

  2. Jordan domain and Fatou set concerning diamond-like hierarchical Potts models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianyong, Qiao; Junyang, Gao

    2007-01-01

    For the Potts models on the diamond-like hierarchical lattice, the domains of the complex phases are indeed the Fatou components of a family of rational maps. In this paper, we deal with the relationships between this family of Fatou components and the Jordan domains and describe the topological structures of this family of Fatou components completely. The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 10625107) and the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (Grant No 04-0490).

  3. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  4. High-accuracy critical exponents for O(N) hierarchical 3D sigma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godina, J. J.; Li, L.; Meurice, Y.; Oktay, M. B.

    2006-01-01

    The critical exponent γ and its subleading exponent Δ in the 3D O(N) Dyson's hierarchical model for N up to 20 are calculated with high accuracy. We calculate the critical temperatures for the measure δ(φ-vector.φ-vector-1). We extract the first coefficients of the 1/N expansion from our numerical data. We show that the leading and subleading exponents agree with Polchinski equation and the equivalent Litim equation, in the local potential approximation, with at least 4 significant digits

  5. Evolutionary-Hierarchical Bases of the Formation of Cluster Model of Innovation Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuliya Vladimirovna Dubrovskaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The functioning of a modern economic system is based on the interaction of objects of different hierarchical levels. Thus, the problem of the study of innovation processes taking into account the mutual influence of the activities of these economic actors becomes important. The paper dwells evolutionary basis for the formation of models of innovation development on the basis of micro and macroeconomic analysis. Most of the concepts recognized that despite a big number of diverse models, the coordination of the relations between economic agents is of crucial importance for the successful innovation development. According to the results of the evolutionary-hierarchical analysis, the authors reveal key phases of the development of forms of business cooperation, science and government in the domestic economy. It has become the starting point of the conception of the characteristics of the interaction in the cluster models of innovation development of the economy. Considerable expectancies on improvement of the national innovative system are connected with the development of cluster and network structures. The main objective of government authorities is the formation of mechanisms and institutions that will foster cooperation between members of the clusters. The article explains that the clusters cannot become the factors in the growth of the national economy, not being an effective tool for interaction between the actors of the regional innovative systems.

  6. Large-scale model of flow in heterogeneous and hierarchical porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabanon, Morgan; Valdés-Parada, Francisco J.; Ochoa-Tapia, J. Alberto; Goyeau, Benoît

    2017-11-01

    Heterogeneous porous structures are very often encountered in natural environments, bioremediation processes among many others. Reliable models for momentum transport are crucial whenever mass transport or convective heat occurs in these systems. In this work, we derive a large-scale average model for incompressible single-phase flow in heterogeneous and hierarchical soil porous media composed of two distinct porous regions embedding a solid impermeable structure. The model, based on the local mechanical equilibrium assumption between the porous regions, results in a unique momentum transport equation where the global effective permeability naturally depends on the permeabilities at the intermediate mesoscopic scales and therefore includes the complex hierarchical structure of the soil. The associated closure problem is numerically solved for various configurations and properties of the heterogeneous medium. The results clearly show that the effective permeability increases with the volume fraction of the most permeable porous region. It is also shown that the effective permeability is sensitive to the dimensionality spatial arrangement of the porous regions and in particular depends on the contact between the impermeable solid and the two porous regions.

  7. Friction and adhesion of hierarchical carbon nanotube structures for biomimetic dry adhesives: multiscale modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shihao; Jiang, Haodan; Xia, Zhenhai; Gao, Xiaosheng

    2010-09-01

    With unique hierarchical fibrillar structures on their feet, gecko lizards can walk on vertical walls or even ceilings. Recent experiments have shown that strong binding along the shear direction and easy lifting in the normal direction can be achieved by forming unidirectional carbon nanotube array with laterally distributed tips similar to gecko's feet. In this study, a multiscale modeling approach was developed to analyze friction and adhesion behaviors of this hierarchical fibrillar system. Vertically aligned carbon nanotube array with laterally distributed segments at the end was simulated by coarse grained molecular dynamics. The effects of the laterally distributed segments on friction and adhesion strengths were analyzed, and further adopted as cohesive laws used in finite element analysis at device scale. The results show that the laterally distributed segments play an essential role in achieving high force anisotropy between normal and shear directions in the adhesives. Finite element analysis reveals a new friction-enhanced adhesion mechanism of the carbon nanotube array, which also exists in gecko adhesive system. The multiscale modeling provides an approach to bridge the microlevel structures of the carbon nanotube array with its macrolevel adhesive behaviors, and the predictions from this modeling give an insight into the mechanisms of gecko-mimicking dry adhesives.

  8. Statistical Challenges in Modeling Big Brain Signals

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, Zhaoxia

    2017-11-01

    Brain signal data are inherently big: massive in amount, complex in structure, and high in dimensions. These characteristics impose great challenges for statistical inference and learning. Here we review several key challenges, discuss possible solutions, and highlight future research directions.

  9. Statistical Learning Theory: Models, Concepts, and Results

    OpenAIRE

    von Luxburg, Ulrike; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2008-01-01

    Statistical learning theory provides the theoretical basis for many of today's machine learning algorithms. In this article we attempt to give a gentle, non-technical overview over the key ideas and insights of statistical learning theory. We target at a broad audience, not necessarily machine learning researchers. This paper can serve as a starting point for people who want to get an overview on the field before diving into technical details.

  10. Widening the Schedulability Hierarchical Scheduling Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boudjadar, Jalil; David, Alexandre; Kim, Jin Hyun

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a compositional approach for schedula- bility analysis of hierarchical systems, which enables to prove more sys- tems schedulable by having richer and more detailed scheduling models. We use a lightweight method (statistical model checking) for design ex- ploration, easily ass...

  11. Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

    2017-06-01

    Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

  12. An approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models for measurement interpretation under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skataric, Maja; Bose, Sandip; Zeroug, Smaine; Tilke, Peter

    2017-02-01

    It is not uncommon in the field of non-destructive evaluation that multiple measurements encompassing a variety of modalities are available for analysis and interpretation for determining the underlying states of nature of the materials or parts being tested. Despite and sometimes due to the richness of data, significant challenges arise in the interpretation manifested as ambiguities and inconsistencies due to various uncertain factors in the physical properties (inputs), environment, measurement device properties, human errors, and the measurement data (outputs). Most of these uncertainties cannot be described by any rigorous mathematical means, and modeling of all possibilities is usually infeasible for many real time applications. In this work, we will discuss an approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models (HBGM) for the improved interpretation of complex (multi-dimensional) problems with parametric uncertainties that lack usable physical models. In this setting, the input space of the physical properties is specified through prior distributions based on domain knowledge and expertise, which are represented as Gaussian mixtures to model the various possible scenarios of interest for non-destructive testing applications. Forward models are then used offline to generate the expected distribution of the proposed measurements which are used to train a hierarchical Bayesian network. In Bayesian analysis, all model parameters are treated as random variables, and inference of the parameters is made on the basis of posterior distribution given the observed data. Learned parameters of the posterior distribution obtained after the training can therefore be used to build an efficient classifier for differentiating new observed data in real time on the basis of pre-trained models. We will illustrate the implementation of the HBGM approach to ultrasonic measurements used for cement evaluation of cased wells in the oil industry.

  13. Hierarchical modeling of genome-wide Short Tandem Repeat (STR) markers infers native American prehistory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Cecil M

    2010-02-01

    This study examines a genome-wide dataset of 678 Short Tandem Repeat loci characterized in 444 individuals representing 29 Native American populations as well as the Tundra Netsi and Yakut populations from Siberia. Using these data, the study tests four current hypotheses regarding the hierarchical distribution of neutral genetic variation in native South American populations: (1) the western region of South America harbors more variation than the eastern region of South America, (2) Central American and western South American populations cluster exclusively, (3) populations speaking the Chibchan-Paezan and Equatorial-Tucanoan language stock emerge as a group within an otherwise South American clade, (4) Chibchan-Paezan populations in Central America emerge together at the tips of the Chibchan-Paezan cluster. This study finds that hierarchical models with the best fit place Central American populations, and populations speaking the Chibchan-Paezan language stock, at a basal position or separated from the South American group, which is more consistent with a serial founder effect into South America than that previously described. Western (Andean) South America is found to harbor similar levels of variation as eastern (Equatorial-Tucanoan and Ge-Pano-Carib) South America, which is inconsistent with an initial west coast migration into South America. Moreover, in all relevant models, the estimates of genetic diversity within geographic regions suggest a major bottleneck or founder effect occurring within the North American subcontinent, before the peopling of Central and South America. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  14. Toward combining thematic information with hierarchical multiscale segmentations using tree Markov random field model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xueliang; Xiao, Pengfeng; Feng, Xuezhi

    2017-09-01

    It has been a common idea to produce multiscale segmentations to represent the various geographic objects in high-spatial resolution remote sensing (HR) images. However, it remains a great challenge to automatically select the proper segmentation scale(s) just according to the image information. In this study, we propose a novel way of information fusion at object level by combining hierarchical multiscale segmentations with existed thematic information produced by classification or recognition. The tree Markov random field (T-MRF) model is designed for the multiscale combination framework, through which the object type is determined as close as the existed thematic information. At the same time, the object boundary is jointly determined by the thematic labels and the multiscale segments through the minimization of the energy function. The benefits of the proposed T-MRF combination model include: (1) reducing the dependence of segmentation scale selection when utilizing multiscale segmentations; (2) exploring the hierarchical context naturally imbedded in the multiscale segmentations. The HR images in both urban and rural areas are used in the experiments to show the effectiveness of the proposed combination framework on these two aspects.

  15. An ontology-based hierarchical semantic modeling approach to clinical pathway workflows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Yan; Jiang, Zhibin; Diao, Xiaodi; Yang, Dong; Du, Gang

    2009-08-01

    This paper proposes an ontology-based approach of modeling clinical pathway workflows at the semantic level for facilitating computerized clinical pathway implementation and efficient delivery of high-quality healthcare services. A clinical pathway ontology (CPO) is formally defined in OWL web ontology language (OWL) to provide common semantic foundation for meaningful representation and exchange of pathway-related knowledge. A CPO-based semantic modeling method is then presented to describe clinical pathways as interconnected hierarchical models including the top-level outcome flow and intervention workflow level along a care timeline. Furthermore, relevant temporal knowledge can be fully represented by combing temporal entities in CPO and temporal rules based on semantic web rule language (SWRL). An illustrative example about a clinical pathway for cesarean section shows the applicability of the proposed methodology in enabling structured semantic descriptions of any real clinical pathway.

  16. Parallel Motion Simulation of Large-Scale Real-Time Crowd in a Hierarchical Environmental Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a parallel real-time crowd simulation method based on a hierarchical environmental model. A dynamical model of the complex environment should be constructed to simulate the state transition and propagation of individual motions. By modeling of a virtual environment where virtual crowds reside, we employ different parallel methods on a topological layer, a path layer and a perceptual layer. We propose a parallel motion path matching method based on the path layer and a parallel crowd simulation method based on the perceptual layer. The large-scale real-time crowd simulation becomes possible with these methods. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the methods and results.

  17. Relating mesocarnivore relative abundance to anthropogenic land-use with a hierarchical spatial count model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M.; Walleser, Liza R.; Hertel, Dan R.; McKann, Patrick C.; Rohweder, Jason J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

    2016-01-01

    There is growing need to develop models of spatial patterns in animal abundance, yet comparatively few examples of such models exist. This is especially true in situations where the abundance of one species may inhibit that of another, such as the intensively-farmed landscape of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the central United States, where waterfowl production is largely constrained by mesocarnivore nest predation. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to relate the distribution of various land-cover types to the relative abundances of four mesocarnivores in the PPR: coyote Canis latrans, raccoon Procyon lotor, red fox Vulpes vulpes, and striped skunk Mephitis mephitis. We developed models for each species at multiple spatial resolutions (41.4 km2, 10.4 km2, and 2.6 km2) to address different ecological and management-related questions. Model results for each species were similar irrespective of resolution. We found that the amount of row-crop agriculture was nearly ubiquitous in our best models, exhibiting a positive relationship with relative abundance for each species. The amount of native grassland land-cover was positively associated with coyote and raccoon relative abundance, but generally absent from models for red fox and skunk. Red fox and skunk were positively associated with each other, suggesting potential niche overlap. We found no evidence that coyote abundance limited that of other mesocarnivore species, as might be expected under a hypothesis of mesopredator release. The relationships between relative abundance and land-cover types were similar across spatial resolutions. Our results indicated that mesocarnivores in the PPR are most likely to occur in portions of the landscape with large amounts of agricultural land-cover. Further, our results indicated that track-survey data can be used in a hierarchical framework to gain inferences regarding spatial patterns in animal relative abundance.

  18. Hierarchical Colored Petri Nets for Modeling and Analysis of Transit Signal Priority Control Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yisheng An

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of developing a model for traffic signal control with transit priority using Hierarchical Colored Petri nets (HCPN. Petri nets (PN are useful for state analysis of discrete event systems due to their powerful modeling capability and mathematical formalism. This paper focuses on their use to formalize the transit signal priority (TSP control model. In a four-phase traffic signal control model, the transit detection and two kinds of transit priority strategies are integrated to obtain the HCPN-based TSP control models. One of the advantages to use these models is the clear presentation of traffic light behaviors in terms of conditions and events that cause the detection of a priority request by a transit vehicle. Another advantage of the resulting models is that the correctness and reliability of the proposed strategies are easily analyzed. After their full reachable states are generated, the boundness, liveness, and fairness of the proposed models are verified. Experimental results show that the proposed control model provides transit vehicles with better effectiveness at intersections. This work helps advance the state of the art in the design of signal control models related to the intersection of roadways.

  19. Linear Mixed Models in Statistical Genetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. de Vlaming (Ronald)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractOne of the goals of statistical genetics is to elucidate the genetic architecture of phenotypes (i.e., observable individual characteristics) that are affected by many genetic variants (e.g., single-nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs). A particular aim is to identify specific SNPs that

  20. A stochastic approximation approach to improve the convergence behavior of hierarchical atomistic-to-continuum multiscale models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurm, Patrick; Ulz, Manfred H.

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this work is to provide an improved information exchange in hierarchical atomistic-to-continuum settings by applying stochastic approximation methods. For this purpose a typical model belonging to this class is chosen and enhanced. On the macroscale of this particular two-scale model, the balance equations of continuum mechanics are solved using a nonlinear finite element formulation. The microscale, on which a canonical ensemble of statistical mechanics is simulated using molecular dynamics, replaces a classic material formulation. The constitutive behavior is computed on the microscale by computing time averages. However, these time averages are thermal noise-corrupted as the microscale may practically not be tracked for a sufficiently long period of time due to limited computational resources. This noise prevents the model from a classical convergence behavior and creates a setting that shows remarkable resemblance to iteration schemes known from stochastic approximation. This resemblance justifies the use of two averaging strategies known to improve the convergence behavior in stochastic approximation schemes under certain, fairly general, conditions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategies, three numerical examples are studied.

  1. Prion Amplification and Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Refine Detection of Prion Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyckoff, A. Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J.; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; Vercauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark

    2015-02-01

    Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.

  2. An RM-ODP Based Ontology and a CAD Tool for Modeling Hierarchical Systems in Enterprise Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Lê, Lam Son; Wegmann, Alain

    2005-01-01

    Enterprise Architecture (EA) requires modeling enterprises across multiple levels (from markets down to IT systems) i.e. modeling hierarchical systems. Our goal is to build a Computer Aided Design (CAD) tool for EA. To be able to build this CAD tool, we need an ontology that can be used to describe hierarchical systems. The Reference Model of Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) was originally defined for describing IT systems and their environment. RM-ODP can also be suited to general, hier...

  3. Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

    2013-01-01

    Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

  4. A hierarchical model of normal and abnormal personality up to seven factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Fernando; Vall, Gemma; Peri, Josep M; Gárriz, Miguel; Garrido, Juan Miguel

    2014-02-01

    Despite general support for dimensional models of personality disorder, it is currently unclear which, and how many, dimensions a taxonomy of this kind should include. In an attempt to obtain an empirically-based, comprehensive, and usable structure of personality, three instruments - The Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised (TCI-R), the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4+(PDQ-4+), and the Dimensional Assessment of Personality Pathology-Basic Questionnaire (DAPP-BQ) - were administered to 960 outpatients and their scales factor-analyzed following a bass ackwards approach. The resulting hierarchical structure was interpretable and replicable across gender and methods up to seven factors. This structure highlights coincidences among current dimensional models and clarifies their apparent divergences, and thus helps to delineate the unified taxonomy of normal and abnormal personality that the field requires. © 2014.

  5. Geometric modeling in probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Calin, Ovidiu

    2014-01-01

    This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...

  6. Statistical Model Checking of Rich Models and Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Danny Bøgsted

    Software is in increasing fashion embedded within safety- and business critical processes of society. Errors in these embedded systems can lead to human casualties or severe monetary loss. Model checking technology has proven formal methods capable of finding and correcting errors in software...... motivates why existing model checking technology should be supplemented by new techniques. It also contains a brief introduction to probability theory and concepts covered by the six papers making up the second part. The first two papers are concerned with developing online monitoring techniques...... systems. The fifth paper shows how stochastic hybrid automata are useful for modelling biological systems and the final paper is concerned with showing how statistical model checking is efficiently distributed. In parallel with developing the theory contained in the papers, a substantial part of this work...

  7. A statistical model of future human actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, G.

    1992-02-01

    A critical review has been carried out of models of future human actions during the long term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as alternatives to the standard Poisson model, and the problems of parameterisation have been addressed. Where the simplistic Poisson model unduly exaggerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be introduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is less likely for deep repositories. Recommendations are made for a practical implementation of a computer based model and its associated database. (Author)

  8. Hierarchical modeling of bycatch rates of sea turtles in the western North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Epperly, S.; Morreale, S.J.

    2008-01-01

    Previous studies indicate that the locations of the endangered loggerhead Caretta caretta and critically endangered leatherback Dermochelys coriacea sea turtles are influenced by water temperatures, and that incidental catch rates in the pelagic longline fishery vary by region. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of environmental variables, including water temperature, on the number of sea turtles captured in the US pelagic longline fishery in the western North Atlantic. The modeling structure is highly flexible, utilizes a Bayesian model selection technique, and is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The number of sea turtles captured is modeled as a zero-inflated Poisson distribution and the model incorporates fixed effects to examine region-specific differences in the parameter estimates. Results indicate that water temperature, region, bottom depth, and target species are all significant predictors of the number of loggerhead sea turtles captured. For leatherback sea turtles, the model with only target species had the most posterior model weight, though a re-parameterization of the model indicates that temperature influences the zero-inflation parameter. The relationship between the number of sea turtles captured and the variables of interest all varied by region. This suggests that management decisions aimed at reducing sea turtle bycatch may be more effective if they are spatially explicit. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

  9. Statistical models of shape optimisation and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Rhodri; Taylor, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Deformable shape models have wide application in computer vision and biomedical image analysis. This book addresses a key issue in shape modelling: establishment of a meaningful correspondence between a set of shapes. Full implementation details are provided.

  10. Parameterization of aquatic ecosystem functioning and its natural variation: Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plankton food web dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede

    2017-10-01

    Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.

  11. Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.

    2005-01-01

    We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...

  12. An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fayaz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

  13. Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models

    CERN Document Server

    Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K

    2011-01-01

    An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a

  14. A Hierarchical Poisson Log-Normal Model for Network Inference from RNA Sequencing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallopin, Mélina; Rau, Andrea; Jaffrézic, Florence

    2013-01-01

    Gene network inference from transcriptomic data is an important methodological challenge and a key aspect of systems biology. Although several methods have been proposed to infer networks from microarray data, there is a need for inference methods able to model RNA-seq data, which are count-based and highly variable. In this work we propose a hierarchical Poisson log-normal model with a Lasso penalty to infer gene networks from RNA-seq data; this model has the advantage of directly modelling discrete data and accounting for inter-sample variance larger than the sample mean. Using real microRNA-seq data from breast cancer tumors and simulations, we compare this method to a regularized Gaussian graphical model on log-transformed data, and a Poisson log-linear graphical model with a Lasso penalty on power-transformed data. For data simulated with large inter-sample dispersion, the proposed model performs better than the other methods in terms of sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve. These results show the necessity of methods specifically designed for gene network inference from RNA-seq data. PMID:24147011

  15. Bayesian Hierarchical Scale Mixtures of Log-Normal Models for Inference in Reliability with Stochastic Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hea-Jung Kim

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT models with stochastic (or uncertain constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.

  16. Reduced Rank Mixed Effects Models for Spatially Correlated Hierarchical Functional Data

    KAUST Repository

    Zhou, Lan

    2010-03-01

    Hierarchical functional data are widely seen in complex studies where sub-units are nested within units, which in turn are nested within treatment groups. We propose a general framework of functional mixed effects model for such data: within unit and within sub-unit variations are modeled through two separate sets of principal components; the sub-unit level functions are allowed to be correlated. Penalized splines are used to model both the mean functions and the principal components functions, where roughness penalties are used to regularize the spline fit. An EM algorithm is developed to fit the model, while the specific covariance structure of the model is utilized for computational efficiency to avoid storage and inversion of large matrices. Our dimension reduction with principal components provides an effective solution to the difficult tasks of modeling the covariance kernel of a random function and modeling the correlation between functions. The proposed methodology is illustrated using simulations and an empirical data set from a colon carcinogenesis study. Supplemental materials are available online.

  17. Statistical image processing and multidimensional modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Fieguth, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Images are all around us! The proliferation of low-cost, high-quality imaging devices has led to an explosion in acquired images. When these images are acquired from a microscope, telescope, satellite, or medical imaging device, there is a statistical image processing task: the inference of something - an artery, a road, a DNA marker, an oil spill - from imagery, possibly noisy, blurry, or incomplete. A great many textbooks have been written on image processing. However this book does not so much focus on images, per se, but rather on spatial data sets, with one or more measurements taken over

  18. Statistical modeling and extrapolation of carcinogenesis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Dewanji, A.

    1986-01-01

    Mathematical models of carcinogenesis are reviewed, including pharmacokinetic models for metabolic activation of carcinogenic substances. Maximum likelihood procedures for fitting these models to epidemiological data are discussed, including situations where the time to tumor occurrence is unobservable. The plausibility of different possible shapes of the dose response curve at low doses is examined, and a robust method for linear extrapolation to low doses is proposed and applied to epidemiological data on radiation carcinogenesis

  19. Statistical Model Selection for TID Hardness Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladbury, R.; Gorelick, J. L.; McClure, S.

    2010-01-01

    Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) methodologies against Total Ionizing Dose (TID) degradation impose rigorous statistical treatments for data from a part's Radiation Lot Acceptance Test (RLAT) and/or its historical performance. However, no similar methods exist for using "similarity" data - that is, data for similar parts fabricated in the same process as the part under qualification. This is despite the greater difficulty and potential risk in interpreting of similarity data. In this work, we develop methods to disentangle part-to-part, lot-to-lot and part-type-to-part-type variation. The methods we develop apply not just for qualification decisions, but also for quality control and detection of process changes and other "out-of-family" behavior. We begin by discussing the data used in ·the study and the challenges of developing a statistic providing a meaningful measure of degradation across multiple part types, each with its own performance specifications. We then develop analysis techniques and apply them to the different data sets.

  20. A second gradient theoretical framework for hierarchical multiscale modeling of materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luscher, Darby J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bronkhorst, Curt A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Dowell, David L [GEORGIA TECH

    2009-01-01

    A theoretical framework for the hierarchical multiscale modeling of inelastic response of heterogeneous materials has been presented. Within this multiscale framework, the second gradient is used as a non local kinematic link between the response of a material point at the coarse scale and the response of a neighborhood of material points at the fine scale. Kinematic consistency between these scales results in specific requirements for constraints on the fluctuation field. The wryness tensor serves as a second-order measure of strain. The nature of the second-order strain induces anti-symmetry in the first order stress at the coarse scale. The multiscale ISV constitutive theory is couched in the coarse scale intermediate configuration, from which an important new concept in scale transitions emerges, namely scale invariance of dissipation. Finally, a strategy for developing meaningful kinematic ISVs and the proper free energy functions and evolution kinetics is presented.

  1. Improving the Calibration of the SN Ia Anchor Datasets with a Bayesian Hierarchal Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Miles; Rubin, David

    2018-01-01

    Inter-survey calibration remains one of the largest systematic uncertainties in SN Ia cosmology today. Ideally, each survey would measure their system throughputs and observe well characterized spectrophotometric standard stars, but many important surveys have not done so. For these surveys, we calibrate using tertiary survey stars tied to SDSS and Pan-STARRS. We improve on previous efforts by taking the spatially variable response of each telescope/camera into account, and using improved color transformations in the surveys’ natural instrumental photometric system. We use a global hierarchical model of the data, automatically providing a covariance matrix of magnitude offsets and bandpass shifts which reduces the systematic uncertainty in inter-survey calibration, thereby providing better cosmological constraints.

  2. Associations among attachment, sexuality, and marital satisfaction in adult Chilean couples: a linear hierarchical models analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heresi Milad, Eliana; Rivera Ottenberger, Diana; Huepe Artigas, David

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to explore the associations among attachment system type, sexual satisfaction, and marital satisfaction in adult couples in stable relationships. Participants were 294 couples between the ages of 20 and 70 years who answered self-administered questionnaires. Hierarchical linear modeling revealed that the anxiety and avoidance, sexual satisfaction, and marital satisfaction dimensions were closely related. Specifically, the avoidance dimension, but not the anxiety dimension, corresponded to lower levels of sexual and marital satisfaction. Moreover, for the sexual satisfaction variable, an interaction effect was observed between the gender of the actor and avoidance of the partner, which was observed only in men. In the marital satisfaction dimension, effects were apparent only at the individual level; a positive relation was found between the number of years spent living together and greater contentment with the relationship. These results confirm the hypothetical association between attachment and sexual and marital satisfaction and demonstrate the relevance of methodologies when the unit of analysis is the couple.

  3. Predictors of Drinking Water Boiling and Bottled Water Consumption in Rural China: A Hierarchical Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Alasdair; Zhang, Qi; Luo, Qing; Tao, Yong; Colford, John M; Ray, Isha

    2017-06-20

    Approximately two billion people drink unsafe water. Boiling is the most commonly used household water treatment (HWT) method globally and in China. HWT can make water safer, but sustained adoption is rare and bottled water consumption is growing. To successfully promote HWT, an understanding of associated socioeconomic factors is critical. We collected survey data and water samples from 450 rural households in Guangxi Province, China. Covariates were grouped into blocks to hierarchically construct modified Poisson models and estimate risk ratios (RR) associated with boiling methods, bottled water, and untreated water. Female-headed households were most likely to boil (RR = 1.36, p boiled. Our findings show that boiling is not an undifferentiated practice, but one with different methods of varying effectiveness, environmental impact, and adoption across socioeconomic strata. Our results can inform programs to promote safer and more efficient boiling using electric kettles, and suggest that if rural China's economy continues to grow then bottled water use will increase.

  4. Hierarchical model-based predictive control of a power plant portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edlund, Kristian; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2011-01-01

    optimisation problem, which is solved using Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition. This decomposition yields improved computational efficiency and better scalability compared to centralised methods.The proposed control scheme is compared to an existing, state-of-the-art portfolio control system (operated by DONG Energy...... control” – becomes increasingly important as the ratio of renewable energy in a power system grows. As a consequence, tomorrow's “smart grids” require highly flexible and scalable control systems compared to conventional power systems. This paper proposes a hierarchical model-based predictive control......One of the main difficulties in large-scale implementation of renewable energy in existing power systems is that the production from renewable sources is difficult to predict and control. For this reason, fast and efficient control of controllable power producing units – so-called “portfolio...

  5. Using deep learning to model the hierarchical structure and function of a cell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jianzhu; Yu, Michael Ku; Fong, Samson; Ono, Keiichiro; Sage, Eric; Demchak, Barry; Sharan, Roded; Ideker, Trey

    2018-04-01

    Although artificial neural networks are powerful classifiers, their internal structures are hard to interpret. In the life sciences, extensive knowledge of cell biology provides an opportunity to design visible neural networks (VNNs) that couple the model's inner workings to those of real systems. Here we develop DCell, a VNN embedded in the hierarchical structure of 2,526 subsystems comprising a eukaryotic cell (http://d-cell.ucsd.edu/). Trained on several million genotypes, DCell simulates cellular growth nearly as accurately as laboratory observations. During simulation, genotypes induce patterns of subsystem activities, enabling in silico investigations of the molecular mechanisms underlying genotype-phenotype associations. These mechanisms can be validated, and many are unexpected; some are governed by Boolean logic. Cumulatively, 80% of the importance for growth prediction is captured by 484 subsystems (21%), reflecting the emergence of a complex phenotype. DCell provides a foundation for decoding the genetics of disease, drug resistance and synthetic life.

  6. Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Fahrmeir, Ludwig

    1994-01-01

    This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...

  7. Neural Systems with Numerically Matched Input-Output Statistic: Isotonic Bivariate Statistical Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Fiori

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Bivariate statistical modeling from incomplete data is a useful statistical tool that allows to discover the model underlying two data sets when the data in the two sets do not correspond in size nor in ordering. Such situation may occur when the sizes of the two data sets do not match (i.e., there are “holes” in the data or when the data sets have been acquired independently. Also, statistical modeling is useful when the amount of available data is enough to show relevant statistical features of the phenomenon underlying the data. We propose to tackle the problem of statistical modeling via a neural (nonlinear system that is able to match its input-output statistic to the statistic of the available data sets. A key point of the new implementation proposed here is that it is based on look-up-table (LUT neural systems, which guarantee a computationally advantageous way of implementing neural systems. A number of numerical experiments, performed on both synthetic and real-world data sets, illustrate the features of the proposed modeling procedure.

  8. A hierarchical model for estimating density in camera-trap studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K.Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating animal density using capture–recapture data from arrays of detection devices such as camera traps has been problematic due to the movement of individuals and heterogeneity in capture probability among them induced by differential exposure to trapping.We develop a spatial capture–recapture model for estimating density from camera-trapping data which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to and detection by traps.We adopt a Bayesian approach to analysis of the hierarchical model using the technique of data augmentation.The model is applied to photographic capture–recapture data on tigers Panthera tigris in Nagarahole reserve, India. Using this model, we estimate the density of tigers to be 14·3 animals per 100 km2 during 2004.Synthesis and applications. Our modelling framework largely overcomes several weaknesses in conventional approaches to the estimation of animal density from trap arrays. It effectively deals with key problems such as individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, movement of traps, presence of potential ‘holes’ in the array and ad hoc estimation of sample area. The formulation, thus, greatly enhances flexibility in the conduct of field surveys as well as in the analysis of data, from studies that may involve physical, photographic or DNA-based ‘captures’ of individual animals.

  9. Automatic relative RPC image model bias compensation through hierarchical image matching for improving DEM quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Myoung-Jong; Howat, Ian M.

    2018-02-01

    The quality and efficiency of automated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) extraction from stereoscopic satellite imagery is critically dependent on the accuracy of the sensor model used for co-locating pixels between stereo-pair images. In the absence of ground control or manual tie point selection, errors in the sensor models must be compensated with increased matching search-spaces, increasing both the computation time and the likelihood of spurious matches. Here we present an algorithm for automatically determining and compensating the relative bias in Rational Polynomial Coefficients (RPCs) between stereo-pairs utilizing hierarchical, sub-pixel image matching in object space. We demonstrate the algorithm using a suite of image stereo-pairs from multiple satellites over a range stereo-photogrammetrically challenging polar terrains. Besides providing a validation of the effectiveness of the algorithm for improving DEM quality, experiments with prescribed sensor model errors yield insight into the dependence of DEM characteristics and quality on relative sensor model bias. This algorithm is included in the Surface Extraction through TIN-based Search-space Minimization (SETSM) DEM extraction software package, which is the primary software used for the U.S. National Science Foundation ArcticDEM and Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) products.

  10. Estimating the Term Structure With a Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model: An Application to Corporate Bonds1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B.; Rosner, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material. PMID:21765566

  11. A Hierarchical Optimization Model for a Network of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiyu Kong

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Charging station location decisions are a critical element in mainstream adoption of electric vehicles (EVs. The consumer confidence in EVs can be boosted with the deployment of carefully-planned charging infrastructure that can fuel a fair number of trips. The charging station (CS location problem is complex and differs considerably from the classical facility location literature, as the decision parameters are additionally linked to a relatively longer charging period, battery parameters, and available grid resources. In this study, we propose a three-layered system model of fast charging stations (FCSs. In the first layer, we solve the flow capturing location problem to identify the locations of the charging stations. In the second layer, we use a queuing model and introduce a resource allocation framework to optimally provision the limited grid resources. In the third layer, we consider the battery charging dynamics and develop a station policy to maximize the profit by setting maximum charging levels. The model is evaluated on the Arizona state highway system and North Dakota state network with a gravity data model, and on the City of Raleigh, North Carolina, using real traffic data. The results show that the proposed hierarchical model improves the system performance, as well as the quality of service (QoS, provided to the customers. The proposed model can efficiently assist city planners for CS location selection and system design.

  12. Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ta-Chien Chan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.

  13. Red clump stars and Gaia: calibration of the standard candle using a hierarchical probabilistic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Keith; Leistedt, Boris; Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W.

    2017-10-01

    Distances to individual stars in our own Galaxy are critical in order to piece together the nature of its velocity and spatial structure. Core helium burning red clump (RC) stars have similar luminosities, are abundant throughout the Galaxy and thus constitute good standard candles. We build a hierarchical probabilistic model to quantify the quality of RC stars as standard candles using parallax measurements from the first Gaia data release. A unique aspect of our methodology is to fully account for (and marginalize over) parallax, photometry and dust correction uncertainties, which lead to more robust results than standard approaches. We determine the absolute magnitude and intrinsic dispersion of the RC in 2MASS bands J, H, Ks, Gaia G band and WISE bands W1, W2, W3 and W4. We find that the absolute magnitude of the RC is -1.61 ± 0.01 (in Ks), +0.44 ± 0.01 (in G), -0.93 ± 0.01 (in J), -1.46 ± 0.01 (in H), -1.68 ± 0.02 (in W1), -1.69 ± 0.02 (in W2), -1.67 ± 0.02 (in W3) and -1.76 ± 0.01 mag (in W4). The mean intrinsic dispersion is ˜0.17 ± 0.03 mag across all bands (yielding a typical distance precision of ˜8 per cent). Thus RC stars are reliable and precise standard candles. In addition, we have also re-calibrated the zero-point of the absolute magnitude of the RC in each band, which provides a benchmark for future studies to estimate distances to RC stars. Finally, the parallax error shrinkage in the hierarchical model outlined in this work can be used to obtain more precise parallaxes than Gaia for the most distant RC stars across the Galaxy.

  14. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  15. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  16. A hierarchical Bayesian network approach for linkage disequilibrium modeling and data-dimensionality reduction prior to genome-wide association studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leray Philippe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Discovering the genetic basis of common genetic diseases in the human genome represents a public health issue. However, the dimensionality of the genetic data (up to 1 million genetic markers and its complexity make the statistical analysis a challenging task. Results We present an accurate modeling of dependences between genetic markers, based on a forest of hierarchical latent class models which is a particular class of probabilistic graphical models. This model offers an adapted framework to deal with the fuzzy nature of linkage disequilibrium blocks. In addition, the data dimensionality can be reduced through the latent variables of the model which synthesize the information borne by genetic markers. In order to tackle the learning of both forest structure and probability distributions, a generic algorithm has been proposed. A first implementation of our algorithm has been shown to be tractable on benchmarks describing 105 variables for 2000 individuals. Conclusions The forest of hierarchical latent class models offers several advantages for genome-wide association studies: accurate modeling of linkage disequilibrium, flexible data dimensionality reduction and biological meaning borne by latent variables.

  17. A hierarchical Bayesian network approach for linkage disequilibrium modeling and data-dimensionality reduction prior to genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mourad, Raphaël; Sinoquet, Christine; Leray, Philippe

    2011-01-12

    Discovering the genetic basis of common genetic diseases in the human genome represents a public health issue. However, the dimensionality of the genetic data (up to 1 million genetic markers) and its complexity make the statistical analysis a challenging task. We present an accurate modeling of dependences between genetic markers, based on a forest of hierarchical latent class models which is a particular class of probabilistic graphical models. This model offers an adapted framework to deal with the fuzzy nature of linkage disequilibrium blocks. In addition, the data dimensionality can be reduced through the latent variables of the model which synthesize the information borne by genetic markers. In order to tackle the learning of both forest structure and probability distributions, a generic algorithm has been proposed. A first implementation of our algorithm has been shown to be tractable on benchmarks describing 105 variables for 2000 individuals. The forest of hierarchical latent class models offers several advantages for genome-wide association studies: accurate modeling of linkage disequilibrium, flexible data dimensionality reduction and biological meaning borne by latent variables.

  18. Hierarchical Communication Diagrams

    OpenAIRE

    Marcin Szpyrka; Piotr Matyasik; Jerzy Biernacki; Agnieszka Biernacka; Michał Wypych; Leszek Kotulski

    2016-01-01

    Formal modelling languages range from strictly textual ones like process algebra scripts to visual modelling languages based on hierarchical graphs like coloured Petri nets. Approaches equipped with visual modelling capabilities make developing process easier and help users to cope with more complex systems. Alvis is a modelling language that combines possibilities of formal models verification with flexibility and simplicity of practical programming languages. The paper deals with hierarchic...

  19. Statistical modelling of traffic safety development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christens, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Road safety is a major concern for society and individuals. Although road safety has improved in recent years, the number of road fatalities is still unacceptably high. In 2000, road accidents killed over 40,000 people in the European Union and injured more than 1.7 million. In 2001 in Denmark...... there were 6861 injury trafficc accidents reported by the police, resulting in 4519 minor injuries, 3946 serious injuries, and 431 fatalities. The general purpose of the research was to improve the insight into aggregated road safety methodology in Denmark. The aim was to analyse advanced statistical methods......, that were designed to study developments over time, including effects of interventions. This aim has been achieved by investigating variations in aggregated Danish traffic accident series and by applying state of the art methodologies to specific case studies. The thesis comprises an introduction...

  20. Online Dectection and Modeling of Safety Boundaries for Aerospace Application Using Bayesian Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    The behavior of complex aerospace systems is governed by numerous parameters. For safety analysis it is important to understand how the system behaves with respect to these parameter values. In particular, understanding the boundaries between safe and unsafe regions is of major importance. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling approach for the online detection and characterization of such boundaries. Our method for classification with active learning uses a particle filter-based model and a boundary-aware metric for best performance. From a library of candidate shapes incorporated with domain expert knowledge, the location and parameters of the boundaries are estimated using advanced Bayesian modeling techniques. The results of our boundary analysis are then provided in a form understandable by the domain expert. We illustrate our approach using a simulation model of a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system, as well as a system for the detection of separation violations in the terminal airspace.

  1. A Noise Robust Statistical Texture Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen; Stegmann, Mikkel Bille; Larsen, Rasmus

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to the problem of obtaining a low dimensional representation of texture (pixel intensity) variation present in a training set after alignment using a Generalised Procrustes analysis.We extend the conventional analysis of training textures in the Active...... Appearance Models segmentation framework. This is accomplished by augmenting the model with an estimate of the covariance of the noise present in the training data. This results in a more compact model maximising the signal-to-noise ratio, thus favouring subspaces rich on signal, but low on noise....... Differences in the methods are illustrated on a set of left cardiac ventricles obtained using magnetic resonance imaging....

  2. Statistical models for nuclear decay from evaporation to vaporization

    CERN Document Server

    Cole, A J

    2000-01-01

    Elements of equilibrium statistical mechanics: Introduction. Microstates and macrostates. Sub-systems and convolution. The Boltzmann distribution. Statistical mechanics and thermodynamics. The grand canonical ensemble. Equations of state for ideal and real gases. Pseudo-equilibrium. Statistical models of nuclear decay. Nuclear physics background: Introduction. Elements of the theory of nuclear reactions. Quantum mechanical description of scattering from a potential. Decay rates and widths. Level and state densities in atomic nuclei. Angular momentum in quantum mechanics. History of statistical

  3. Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hayslett, H T

    1991-01-01

    Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

  4. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

  5. A two level hierarchical model of protein retention in ion exchange chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvalaglio, Matteo; Paloni, Matteo; Guelat, Bertrand; Morbidelli, Massimo; Cavallotti, Carlo

    2015-09-11

    Predicting protein retention in ion exchange chromatography (IEX) from first principles is a fascinating perspective. In this work a two level hierarchical modeling strategy is proposed in order to calculate protein retention factors. Model predictions are tested against experimental data measured for Lysozyme and Chymotrypsinogen A in IEX columns as a function of ionic strength and pH. At the highest level of accuracy Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations in explicit water are used to determine the interaction free energy between each of the two proteins and the IEX stationary phase for a reference pH and ionic strength. At a lower level of accuracy a linear response model based on an implicit treatment of solvation and adopting a static protein structure is used to calculate interaction free energies for the full range of pHs and ionic strengths considered. A scaling coefficient, determined comparing MD and implicit solvent simulations, is then introduced in order to correct the linear response model for errors induced by the adoption of a static protein structure. The calculated free energies are then used to compute protein retention factors, which can be directly compared with experimental data. The possibility to introduce a third level of accuracy is explored testing the predictions of a semiempirical model. A quantitative agreement between the predicted and measured protein retention factors is obtained using the coupled MD-linear response models, supporting the reliability of the proposed approach. The model allows quantifying the electrostatic, van der Waals, and conformational contributions to the interaction free energies. A good agreement between experiments and model is obtained also using the semiempirical model that, although requiring parameterization over higher level models or experimental data, proves to be useful in order to rapidly determine protein retention factors across wide pH and ionic strength ranges as it is computationally inexpensive

  6. Introduction to statistical modelling: linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, Mark

    2015-07-01

    In many studies we wish to assess how a range of variables are associated with a particular outcome and also determine the strength of such relationships so that we can begin to understand how these factors relate to each other at a population level. Ultimately, we may also be interested in predicting the outcome from a series of predictive factors available at, say, a routine clinic visit. In a recent article in Rheumatology, Desai et al. did precisely that when they studied the prediction of hip and spine BMD from hand BMD and various demographic, lifestyle, disease and therapy variables in patients with RA. This article aims to introduce the statistical methodology that can be used in such a situation and explain the meaning of some of the terms employed. It will also outline some common pitfalls encountered when performing such analyses. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjaneh Issapour

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.

  8. Latent domain models for statistical machine translation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoàng, C.

    2017-01-01

    A data-driven approach to model translation suffers from the data mismatch problem and demands domain adaptation techniques. Given parallel training data originating from a specific domain, training an MT system on the data would result in a rather suboptimal translation for other domains. But does

  9. Statistical modelling of fine red wine production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Rosa Castro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a li- neal relationship between the litres of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.

  10. Behavioral and statistical models of educational inequality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how students and their families make educational decisions. We describe three types of behavioral model that might underlie decision-making and we show that they have consequences for what decisions are made. Our study thus has policy implications if we wish...

  11. Statistical model semiquantitatively approximates arabinoxylooligosaccharides' structural diversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dotsenko, Gleb; Nielsen, Michael Krogsgaard; Lange, Lene

    2016-01-01

    (wheat flour arabinoxylan (arabinose/xylose, A/X = 0.47); grass arabinoxylan (A/X = 0.24); wheat straw arabinoxylan (A/X = 0.15); and hydrothermally pretreated wheat straw arabinoxylan (A/X = 0.05)), is semiquantitatively approximated using the proposed model. The suggested approach can be applied...

  12. A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR STOCK ASSESSMENT OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of the status of southern bluefin tuna (SBT) by Australia and Japan has used a method (ADAPT) that imposes a number of structural restrictions, and is ... over time within the bounds of specific structure, and (3) autocorrelation in recruitment processes is considered within the likelihood framework of the model.

  13. TOPICAL REVIEW: Nonlinear aspects of the renormalization group flows of Dyson's hierarchical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meurice, Y.

    2007-06-01

    We review recent results concerning the renormalization group (RG) transformation of Dyson's hierarchical model (HM). This model can be seen as an approximation of a scalar field theory on a lattice. We introduce the HM and show that its large group of symmetry simplifies drastically the blockspinning procedure. Several equivalent forms of the recursion formula are presented with unified notations. Rigourous and numerical results concerning the recursion formula are summarized. It is pointed out that the recursion formula of the HM is inequivalent to both Wilson's approximate recursion formula and Polchinski's equation in the local potential approximation (despite the very small difference with the exponents of the latter). We draw a comparison between the RG of the HM and functional RG equations in the local potential approximation. The construction of the linear and nonlinear scaling variables is discussed in an operational way. We describe the calculation of non-universal critical amplitudes in terms of the scaling variables of two fixed points. This question appears as a problem of interpolation between these fixed points. Universal amplitude ratios are calculated. We discuss the large-N limit and the complex singularities of the critical potential calculable in this limit. The interpolation between the HM and more conventional lattice models is presented as a symmetry breaking problem. We briefly introduce models with an approximate supersymmetry. One important goal of this review is to present a configuration space counterpart, suitable for lattice formulations, of functional RG equations formulated in momentum space (often called exact RG equations and abbreviated ERGE).

  14. A Hierarchical Building Segmentation in Digital Surface Models for 3D Reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiming Yan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hierarchical method for segmenting buildings in a digital surface model (DSM, which is used in a novel framework for 3D reconstruction, is proposed. Most 3D reconstructions of buildings are model-based. However, the limitations of these methods are overreliance on completeness of the offline-constructed models of buildings, and the completeness is not easily guaranteed since in modern cities buildings can be of a variety of types. Therefore, a model-free framework using high precision DSM and texture-images buildings was introduced. There are two key problems with this framework. The first one is how to accurately extract the buildings from the DSM. Most segmentation methods are limited by either the terrain factors or the difficult choice of parameter-settings. A level-set method are employed to roughly find the building regions in the DSM, and then a recently proposed ‘occlusions of random textures model’ are used to enhance the local segmentation of the buildings. The second problem is how to generate the facades of buildings. Synergizing with the corresponding texture-images, we propose a roof-contour guided interpolation of building facades. The 3D reconstruction results achieved by airborne-like images and satellites are compared. Experiments show that the segmentation method has good performance, and 3D reconstruction is easily performed by our framework, and better visualization results can be obtained by airborne-like images, which can be further replaced by UAV images.

  15. Modeling statistical properties of written text.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Angeles Serrano

    Full Text Available Written text is one of the fundamental manifestations of human language, and the study of its universal regularities can give clues about how our brains process information and how we, as a society, organize and share it. Among these regularities, only Zipf's law has been explored in depth. Other basic properties, such as the existence of bursts of rare words in specific documents, have only been studied independently of each other and mainly by descriptive models. As a consequence, there is a lack of understanding of linguistic processes as complex emergent phenomena. Beyond Zipf's law for word frequencies, here we focus on burstiness, Heaps' law describing the sublinear growth of vocabulary size with the length of a document, and the topicality of document collections, which encode correlations within and across documents absent in random null models. We introduce and validate a generative model that explains the simultaneous emergence of all these patterns from simple rules. As a result, we find a connection between the bursty nature of rare words and the topical organization of texts and identify dynamic word ranking and memory across documents as key mechanisms explaining the non trivial organization of written text. Our research can have broad implications and practical applications in computer science, cognitive science and linguistics.

  16. Centering, Scale Indeterminacy, and Differential Item Functioning Detection in Hierarchical Generalized Linear and Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Yuk Fai; Kamata, Akihito

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we discuss and illustrate two centering and anchoring options available in differential item functioning (DIF) detection studies based on the hierarchical generalized linear and generalized linear mixed modeling frameworks. We compared and contrasted the assumptions of the two options, and examined the properties of their DIF…

  17. Exploring the Effects of Congruence and Holland's Personality Codes on Job Satisfaction: An Application of Hierarchical Linear Modeling Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishitani, Terry T.

    2010-01-01

    This study applied hierarchical linear modeling to investigate the effect of congruence on intrinsic and extrinsic aspects of job satisfaction. Particular focus was given to differences in job satisfaction by gender and by Holland's first-letter codes. The study sample included nationally represented 1462 female and 1280 male college graduates who…

  18. Statistical modelling of space-time processes with application to wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda

    . This thesis aims at contributing to the wind power literature by building and evaluating new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations and lead times using spatio-temporal information. By exploring the features of a rich portfolio of wind farms in western Denmark, we investigate...... correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with integrated nested Laplace approximations. We show that complex hierarchical spatial models are well suited for wind power....... The use of the integrated nested Laplace approximations is motivated by the desire to produce forecasts on large data sets with hundreds of locations, which is critical during periods of high wind penetration. Subsequently, the extension from spatial to spatio-temporal models is iven. Three different...

  19. Can hierarchical modeling improve our understanding of bovine abortion due to Neospora caninum infection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Brayan Alexander Fonseca; Leotti, Vanessa Bielefeldt; Borba, Mauro Riegert; Silva, Gustavo de Sousa E; Corbellini, Luís Gustavo

    2017-04-15

    The purpose of this study was to use mixed logistic regression to evaluate the association between Neospora caninum serostatus and abortion, accounting for the effects of farms. The main objective was to explore the interpretation of this model and discuss the contribution of this analysis to our understanding of the disease's epidemiology. A mixed-effects logistic model using farms as a random effect and the serostatus for N. caninum, age of cattle and farm location as fixed effects was performed. The data from 1256 cows over 15 months of age from 60 farms were used, and the abortion information was obtained from farm records. A significant association between N. caninum serostatus and abortion was found (p<0.0001). Seropositive cows had 6.63 times greater odds of having a history of previous abortion (95% CI: 4.35-13.37). There was remarkable variability across farms in the probability of a cow having a history of an abortion. Including the effects of the farms in the regression, it was possible to estimate an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 16%. That means that 16% of the variation in abortion occurrence that was not explained by the fixed effects was due to farms. In practical terms, this variation means that while there are farms with several seropositive cows and no/few abortion cases, the opposite is also true, with a high number of abortions in farms with low/medium seroprevalence. The remaining variability (84%) was not explained by the effect of N. caninum, age, region, and the effect of farms, i.e., it is due to unknown factors that are causing abortions. The results of this study reinforce the importance of N. caninum as a cause of abortions and demonstrate the significant heterogeneity in the probability of a cow having a history of an abortion that cannot be explained completely by N. caninum serostatus, age or location. Including the hierarchical structure of the population along with correct interpretation of the model estimates helps us

  20. Advanced data analysis in neuroscience integrating statistical and computational models

    CERN Document Server

    Durstewitz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book is intended for use in advanced graduate courses in statistics / machine learning, as well as for all experimental neuroscientists seeking to understand statistical methods at a deeper level, and theoretical neuroscientists with a limited background in statistics. It reviews almost all areas of applied statistics, from basic statistical estimation and test theory, linear and nonlinear approaches for regression and classification, to model selection and methods for dimensionality reduction, density estimation and unsupervised clustering.  Its focus, however, is linear and nonlinear time series analysis from a dynamical systems perspective, based on which it aims to convey an understanding also of the dynamical mechanisms that could have generated observed time series. Further, it integrates computational modeling of behavioral and neural dynamics with statistical estimation and hypothesis testing. This way computational models in neuroscience are not only explanat ory frameworks, but become powerfu...

  1. Domain analysis and modeling to improve comparability of health statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M; Hashimoto, H; Ohida, T

    2001-01-01

    Health statistics is an essential element to improve the ability of managers of health institutions, healthcare researchers, policy makers, and health professionals to formulate appropriate course of reactions and to make decisions based on evidence. To ensure adequate health statistics, standards are of critical importance. A study on healthcare statistics domain analysis is underway in an effort to improve usability and comparability of health statistics. The ongoing study focuses on structuring the domain knowledge and making the knowledge explicit with a data element dictionary being the core. Supplemental to the dictionary are a domain term list, a terminology dictionary, and a data model to help organize the concepts constituting the health statistics domain.

  2. Factors associated with leisure time physical inactivity in black individuals: hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco José Gondim Pitanga

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background. A number of studies have shown that the black population exhibits higher levels of leisure-time physical inactivity (LTPI, but few have investigated the factors associated with this behavior.Objective. The aim of this study was to analyze associated factors and the explanatory model proposed for LTPI in black adults.Methods. The design was cross-sectional with a sample of 2,305 adults from 20–96 years of age, 902 (39.1% men, living in the city of Salvador, Brazil. LTPI was analyzed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ. A hierarchical model was built with the possible factors associated with LTPI, distributed in distal (age and sex, intermediate 1 (socioeconomic status, educational level and marital status, intermediate 2 (perception of safety/violence in the neighborhood, racial discrimination in private settings and physical activity at work and proximal blocks (smoking and participation in Carnival block rehearsals. We estimated crude and adjusted odds ratio (OR using logistic regression.Results. The variables inversely associated with LTPI were male gender, socioeconomic status and secondary/university education, although the proposed model explains only 4.2% of LTPI.Conclusions. We conclude that male gender, higher education and socioeconomic status can reduce LTPI in black adults.

  3. Factors associated with leisure time physical inactivity in black individuals: hierarchical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitanga, Francisco José Gondim; Lessa, Ines; Barbosa, Paulo José B; Barbosa, Simone Janete O; Costa, Maria Cecília; Lopes, Adair da Silva

    2014-01-01

    Background. A number of studies have shown that the black population exhibits higher levels of leisure-time physical inactivity (LTPI), but few have investigated the factors associated with this behavior. Objective. The aim of this study was to analyze associated factors and the explanatory model proposed for LTPI in black adults. Methods. The design was cross-sectional with a sample of 2,305 adults from 20-96 years of age, 902 (39.1%) men, living in the city of Salvador, Brazil. LTPI was analyzed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). A hierarchical model was built with the possible factors associated with LTPI, distributed in distal (age and sex), intermediate 1 (socioeconomic status, educational level and marital status), intermediate 2 (perception of safety/violence in the neighborhood, racial discrimination in private settings and physical activity at work) and proximal blocks (smoking and participation in Carnival block rehearsals). We estimated crude and adjusted odds ratio (OR) using logistic regression. Results. The variables inversely associated with LTPI were male gender, socioeconomic status and secondary/university education, although the proposed model explains only 4.2% of LTPI. Conclusions. We conclude that male gender, higher education and socioeconomic status can reduce LTPI in black adults.

  4. Teacher characteristics and student performance: An analysis using hierarchical linear modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Armstrong

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This research makes use of hierarchical linear modelling to investigate which teacher characteristics are significantly associated with student performance. Using data from the SACMEQ III study of 2007, an interesting and potentially important finding is that younger teachers are better able to improve the mean mathematics performance of their students. Furthermore, younger teachers themselves perform better on subject tests than do their older counterparts. Identical models are run for Sub Saharan countries bordering on South Africa, as well for Kenya and the strong relationship between teacher age and student performance is not observed. Similarly, the model is run for South Africa using data from SACMEQ II (conducted in 2002 and the relationship between teacher age and student performance is also not observed. It must be noted that South African teachers were not tested in SACMEQ II so it was not possible to observe differences in subject knowledge amongst teachers in different cohorts and it was not possible to control for teachers’ level of subject knowledge when observing the relationship between teacher age and student performance. Changes in teacher education in the late 1990s and early 2000s may explain the differences in the performance of younger teachers relative to their older counterparts observed in the later dataset.

  5. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of ionospheric TEC disturbances as non-stationary processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seid, Abdu Mohammed; Berhane, Tesfahun; Roininen, Lassi; Nigussie, Melessew

    2018-03-01

    We model regular and irregular variation of ionospheric total electron content as stationary and non-stationary processes, respectively. We apply the method developed to SCINDA GPS data set observed at Bahir Dar, Ethiopia (11.6 °N, 37.4 °E) . We use hierarchical Bayesian inversion with Gaussian Markov random process priors, and we model the prior parameters in the hyperprior. We use Matérn priors via stochastic partial differential equations, and use scaled Inv -χ2 hyperpriors for the hyperparameters. For drawing posterior estimates, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods: Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-within-Gibbs for parameter and hyperparameter estimations, respectively. This allows us to quantify model parameter estimation uncertainties as well. We demonstrate the applicability of the method proposed using a synthetic test case. Finally, we apply the method to real GPS data set, which we decompose to regular and irregular variation components. The result shows that the approach can be used as an accurate ionospheric disturbance characterization technique that quantifies the total electron content variability with corresponding error uncertainties.

  6. Statistical modeling of nitrogen-dependent modulation of root system architecture in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya, Takao; Kubo, Takuya; von Wirén, Nicolaus; Takahashi, Hideki

    2016-03-01

    Plant root development is strongly affected by nutrient availability. Despite the importance of structure and function of roots in nutrient acquisition, statistical modeling approaches to evaluate dynamic and temporal modulations of root system architecture in response to nutrient availability have remained as widely open and exploratory areas in root biology. In this study, we developed a statistical modeling approach to investigate modulations of root system architecture in response to nitrogen availability. Mathematical models were designed for quantitative assessment of root growth and root branching phenotypes and their dynamic relationships based on hierarchical configuration of primary and lateral roots formulating the fishbone-shaped root system architecture in Arabidopsis thaliana. Time-series datasets reporting dynamic changes in root developmental traits on different nitrate or ammonium concentrations were generated for statistical analyses. Regression analyses unraveled key parameters associated with: (i) inhibition of primary root growth under nitrogen limitation or on ammonium; (ii) rapid progression of lateral root emergence in response to ammonium; and (iii) inhibition of lateral root elongation in the presence of excess nitrate or ammonium. This study provides a statistical framework for interpreting dynamic modulation of root system architecture, supported by meta-analysis of datasets displaying morphological responses of roots to diverse nitrogen supplies. © 2015 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  7. Application of hierarchical Bayesian unmixing models in river sediment source apportionment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Will; Smith, Hugh; Navas, Ana; Bodé, Samuel; Goddard, Rupert; Zou Kuzyk, Zou; Lennard, Amy; Lobb, David; Owens, Phil; Palazon, Leticia; Petticrew, Ellen; Gaspar, Leticia; Stock, Brian; Boeckx, Pacsal; Semmens, Brice

    2016-04-01

    Fingerprinting and unmixing concepts are used widely across environmental disciplines for forensic evaluation of pollutant sources. In aquatic and marine systems, this includes tracking the source of organic and inorganic pollutants in water and linking problem sediment to soil erosion and land use sources. It is, however, the particular complexity of ecological systems that has driven creation of the most sophisticated mixing models, primarily to (i) evaluate diet composition in complex ecological food webs, (ii) inform population structure and (iii) explore animal movement. In the context of the new hierarchical Bayesian unmixing model, MIXSIAR, developed to characterise intra-population niche variation in ecological systems, we evaluate the linkage between ecological 'prey' and 'consumer' concepts and river basin sediment 'source' and sediment 'mixtures' to exemplify the value of ecological modelling tools to river basin science. Recent studies have outlined advantages presented by Bayesian unmixing approaches in handling complex source and mixture datasets while dealing appropriately with uncertainty in parameter probability distributions. MixSIAR is unique in that it allows individual fixed and random effects associated with mixture hierarchy, i.e. factors that might exert an influence on model outcome for mixture groups, to be explored within the source-receptor framework. This offers new and powerful ways of interpreting river basin apportionment data. In this contribution, key components of the model are evaluated in the context of common experimental designs for sediment fingerprinting studies namely simple, nested and distributed catchment sampling programmes. Illustrative examples using geochemical and compound specific stable isotope datasets are presented and used to discuss best practice with specific attention to (1) the tracer selection process, (2) incorporation of fixed effects relating to sample timeframe and sediment type in the modelling

  8. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  9. Hierarchical Model for the Similarity Measurement of a Complex Holed-Region Entity Scene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanlong Chen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex multi-holed-region entity scenes (i.e., sets of random region with holes are common in spatial database systems, spatial query languages, and the Geographic Information System (GIS. A multi-holed-region (region with an arbitrary number of holes is an abstraction of the real world that primarily represents geographic objects that have more than one interior boundary, such as areas that contain several lakes or lakes that contain islands. When the similarity of the two complex holed-region entity scenes is measured, the number of regions in the scenes and the number of holes in the regions are usually different between the two scenes, which complicates the matching relationships of holed-regions and holes. The aim of this research is to develop several holed-region similarity metrics and propose a hierarchical model to measure comprehensively the similarity between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The procedure first divides a complex entity scene into three layers: a complex scene, a micro-spatial-scene, and a simple entity (hole. The relationships between the adjacent layers are considered to be sets of relationships, and each level of similarity measurements is nested with the adjacent one. Next, entity matching is performed from top to bottom, while the similarity results are calculated from local to global. In addition, we utilize position graphs to describe the distribution of the holed-regions and subsequently describe the directions between the holes using a feature matrix. A case study that uses the Great Lakes in North America in 1986 and 2015 as experimental data illustrates the entire similarity measurement process between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The experimental results show that the hierarchical model accounts for the relationships of the different layers in the entire complex holed-region entity scene. The model can effectively calculate the similarity of complex holed-region entity scenes, even if the

  10. Spectral statistics in particles-rotor model and cranking model

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou Xian Rong; Zhao En Guang; Guo Lu

    2002-01-01

    Spectral statistics for six particles in single-j and two-j model coupled with a deformed core are studied in the frames of particles-rotor model and cranking shell model. The nearest-neighbor-distribution of energy levels and spectral rigidity are studied as a function of the spin or cranking frequency, respectively. The results of single-j shell are compared with those in two-j case. The system becomes more regular when single-j space (i sub 1 sub 3 sub / sub 2) is replaced by two-j shell (g sub 7 sub / sub 2 + d sub 5 sub / sub 2), although the basis size of the configuration space is unchanged. However, the degree of chaoticity of the system changes slightly when configuration space is enlarged by extending single-j shell (i sub 1 sub 3 sub / sub 2) to two-j shell (i sub 1 sub 3 sub / sub 2 + g sub 9 sub / sub 2). Nuclear chaotic behavior is studied when authors take a two-body interaction as delta force and pairing interaction, respectively

  11. A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL SPATIAL MODEL FOR DENTAL CARIES ASSESSMENT USING NON-GAUSSIAN MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Ick Hoon; Yuan, Ying; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar

    2016-01-01

    Research in dental caries generates data with two levels of hierarchy: that of a tooth overall and that of the different surfaces of the tooth. The outcomes often exhibit spatial referencing among neighboring teeth and surfaces, i.e., the disease status of a tooth or surface might be influenced by the status of a set of proximal teeth/surfaces. Assessments of dental caries (tooth decay) at the tooth level yield binary outcomes indicating the presence/absence of teeth, and trinary outcomes at the surface level indicating healthy, decayed, or filled surfaces. The presence of these mixed discrete responses complicates the data analysis under a unified framework. To mitigate complications, we develop a Bayesian two-level hierarchical model under suitable (spatial) Markov random field assumptions that accommodates the natural hierarchy within the mixed responses. At the first level, we utilize an autologistic model to accommodate the spatial dependence for the tooth-level binary outcomes. For the second level and conditioned on a tooth being non-missing, we utilize a Potts model to accommodate the spatial referencing for the surface-level trinary outcomes. The regression models at both levels were controlled for plausible covariates (risk factors) of caries, and remain connected through shared parameters. To tackle the computational challenges in our Bayesian estimation scheme caused due to the doubly-intractable normalizing constant, we employ a double Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We compare and contrast our model performances to the standard non-spatial (naive) model using a small simulation study, and illustrate via an application to a clinical dataset on dental caries.

  12. Functional summary statistics for the Johnson-Mehl model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Ghorbani, Mohammad

    The Johnson-Mehl germination-growth model is a spatio-temporal point process model which among other things have been used for the description of neurotransmitters datasets. However, for such datasets parametric Johnson-Mehl models fitted by maximum likelihood have yet not been evaluated by means...... of functional summary statistics. This paper therefore invents four functional summary statistics adapted to the Johnson-Mehl model, with two of them based on the second-order properties and the other two on the nuclei-boundary distances for the associated Johnson-Mehl tessellation. The functional summary...... statistics theoretical properties are investigated, non-parametric estimators are suggested, and their usefulness for model checking is examined in a simulation study. The functional summary statistics are also used for checking fitted parametric Johnson-Mehl models for a neurotransmitters dataset....

  13. Fitting statistical models in bivariate allometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packard, Gary C; Birchard, Geoffrey F; Boardman, Thomas J

    2011-08-01

    Several attempts have been made in recent years to formulate a general explanation for what appear to be recurring patterns of allometric variation in morphology, physiology, and ecology of both plants and animals (e.g. the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, the Allometric Cascade, the Metabolic-Level Boundaries hypothesis). However, published estimates for parameters in allometric equations often are inaccurate, owing to undetected bias introduced by the traditional method for fitting lines to empirical data. The traditional method entails fitting a straight line to logarithmic transformations of the original data and then back-transforming the resulting equation to the arithmetic scale. Because of fundamental changes in distributions attending transformation of predictor and response variables, the traditional practice may cause influential outliers to go undetected, and it may result in an underparameterized model being fitted to the data. Also, substantial bias may be introduced by the insidious rotational distortion that accompanies regression analyses performed on logarithms. Consequently, the aforementioned patterns of allometric variation may be illusions, and the theoretical explanations may be wide of the mark. Problems attending the traditional procedure can be largely avoided in future research simply by performing preliminary analyses on arithmetic values and by validating fitted equations in the arithmetic domain. The goal of most allometric research is to characterize relationships between biological variables and body size, and this is done most effectively with data expressed in the units of measurement. Back-transforming from a straight line fitted to logarithms is not a generally reliable way to estimate an allometric equation in the original scale. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  14. Enriching the hierarchical model of achievement motivation: autonomous and controlling reasons underlying achievement goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michou, Aikaterini; Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Mouratidis, Athanasios; Lens, Willy

    2014-12-01

    The hierarchical model of achievement motivation presumes that achievement goals channel the achievement motives of need for achievement and fear of failure towards motivational outcomes. Yet, less is known whether autonomous and controlling reasons underlying the pursuit of achievement goals can serve as additional pathways between achievement motives and outcomes. We tested whether mastery approach, performance approach, and performance avoidance goals and their underlying autonomous and controlling reasons would jointly explain the relation between achievement motives (i.e., fear of failure and need for achievement) and learning strategies (Study 1). Additionally, we examined whether the autonomous and controlling reasons underlying learners' dominant achievement goal would account for the link between achievement motives and the educational outcomes of learning strategies and cheating (Study 2). Six hundred and six Greek adolescent students (Mage = 15.05, SD = 1.43) and 435 university students (Mage M = 20.51, SD = 2.80) participated in studies 1 and 2, respectively. In both studies, a correlational design was used and the hypotheses were tested via path modelling. Autonomous and controlling reasons underlying the pursuit of achievement goals mediated, respectively, the relation of need for achievement and fear of failure to aspects of learning outcomes. Autonomous and controlling reasons underlying achievement goals could further explain learners' functioning in achievement settings. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Aggregation of polymer-grafted nanoparticles in good solvents: A hierarchical modeling method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Lisheng; Cao, Dapeng

    2011-09-01

    Brownian dynamics simulations are carried out to study the aggregation behavior of polymer-grafted nanoparticles (NPs) in good solvents by using the coarse-grained model derived from the all-atom force field, according to the hierarchical modeling strategy, and here PEG-grafted gold nanoparticles (GNPs) were taken as an example. Generally, grafting PEG to the surface of GNPs is to protect them from aggregation in the solution. However, our results reveal that PEG-grafted GNPs may also aggregate when concentration increases. Our simulations indicate that there exists a critical aggregating concentration (CAC), beyond which the PEG-grafted GNPs will aggregate. We further check the effects of grafting density and the length of grafted chains on the aggregation behavior of the grafted GNPs, and find that there exists an optimized length of grafted chain, at which the system has the maximal CAC. Furthermore, the aggregate size of self-assembled mesostructures formed by the grafted GNPs increases with the concentration. Interestingly, it is observed that the aggregation favors to form linear gold nanowires rather than compact gold nanoclusters, and the corresponding mechanism is also addressed. It is expected that this work would provide useful information for the fabrication of metal nanowires and the surface modification of metal nanoparticles.

  16. The hierarchic structure in schizotypy and the five-factor model of personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asai, Tomohisa; Sugimori, Eriko; Bando, Naoko; Tanno, Yoshihiko

    2011-01-30

    Schizotypal personality traits (schizotypy) might be seen as on a continuum with schizophrenia. However, controversy remains with regard to whether this continuum is quasi-dimensional, applying only to people with schizophrenia and schizotypy, or fully dimensional, applying to all people. If the fully dimensional model is accurate, schizotypy could be described by the same personality theories as are applied to people in general. We examined the relationship between schizotypy and the five-factor model of personality (FFM), which is arguably the most established contemporary personality theory. When we assumed a hierarchic structure of schizotypy factors, we found that the FFM scales could explain schizotypy fairly well regardless of the questionnaires used, suggesting that schizotypy might represent a variation better understood by reference to typical dimensions of personality, though it might still indicate a predisposition to schizophrenia. This article discusses this conclusion in relation to each of the five personality factors. A perspective that situates schizophrenia on a continuum with general personality variations implies that this disorder constitutes a potential risk for everyone and, thus, helps to promote understanding and correct misunderstandings that contribute to prejudice. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Micromechanics of hierarchical materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr.

    2012-01-01

    A short overview of micromechanical models of hierarchical materials (hybrid composites, biomaterials, fractal materials, etc.) is given. Several examples of the modeling of strength and damage in hierarchical materials are summarized, among them, 3D FE model of hybrid composites...... with nanoengineered matrix, fiber bundle model of UD composites with hierarchically clustered fibers and 3D multilevel model of wood considered as a gradient, cellular material with layered composite cell walls. The main areas of research in micromechanics of hierarchical materials are identified, among them......, the investigations of the effects of load redistribution between reinforcing elements at different scale levels, of the possibilities to control different material properties and to ensure synergy of strengthening effects at different scale levels and using the nanoreinforcement effects. The main future directions...

  18. Probabilistic statistical modeling of air pollution from vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adikanova, Saltanat; Malgazhdarov, Yerzhan A.; Madiyarov, Muratkan N.; Temirbekov, Nurlan M.

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the work is to create a probabilistic-statistical mathematical model for the distribution of emissions from vehicles. In this article, it is proposed to use the probabilistic and statistical approach for modeling the distribution of harmful impurities in the atmosphere from vehicles using the example of the Ust-Kamenogorsk city. Using a simplified methodology of stochastic modeling, it is possible to construct effective numerical computational algorithms that significantly reduce the amount of computation without losing their accuracy.

  19. Motivation, Classroom Environment, and Learning in Introductory Geology: A Hierarchical Linear Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, L. A.; Hilpert, J. C.; Van Der Hoeven Kraft, K.; Budd, D.; Jones, M. H.; Matheney, R.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Perkins, D.; Stempien, J. A.; Wirth, K. R.

    2013-12-01

    Prior research has indicated that highly motivated students perform better and that learning increases in innovative, reformed classrooms, but untangling the student effects from the instructor effects is essential to understanding how to best support student learning. Using a hierarchical linear model, we examine these effects separately and jointly. We use data from nearly 2,000 undergraduate students surveyed by the NSF-funded GARNET (Geoscience Affective Research NETwork) project in 65 different introductory geology classes at research universities, public masters-granting universities, liberal arts colleges and community colleges across the US. Student level effects were measured as increases in expectancy and self-regulation using the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ; Pintrich et al., 1991). Instructor level effects were measured using the Reformed Teaching Observation Protocol, (RTOP; Sawada et al., 2000), with higher RTOP scores indicating a more reformed, student-centered classroom environment. Learning was measured by learning gains on a Geology Concept Inventory (GCI; Libarkin and Anderson, 2005) and normalized final course grade. The hierarchical linear model yielded significant results at several levels. At the student level, increases in expectancy and self-regulation are significantly and positively related to higher grades regardless of instructor; the higher the increase, the higher the grade. At the instructor level, RTOP scores are positively related to normalized average GCI learning gains. The higher the RTOP score, the higher the average class GCI learning gains. Across both levels, average class GCI learning gains are significantly and positively related to student grades; the higher the GCI learning gain, the higher the grade. Further, the RTOP scores are significantly and negatively related to the relationship between expectancy and course grade. The lower the RTOP score, the higher the correlation between change in

  20. Abrupt strategy change underlies gradual performance change: Bayesian hierarchical models of component and aggregate strategy use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynton, Sarah K A; Anglim, Jeromy

    2017-10-01

    While researchers have often sought to understand the learning curve in terms of multiple component processes, few studies have measured and mathematically modeled these processes on a complex task. In particular, there remains a need to reconcile how abrupt changes in strategy use can co-occur with gradual changes in task completion time. Thus, the current study aimed to assess the degree to which strategy change was abrupt or gradual, and whether strategy aggregation could partially explain gradual performance change. It also aimed to show how Bayesian methods could be used to model the effect of practice on strategy use. To achieve these aims, 162 participants completed 15 blocks of practice on a complex computer-based task-the Wynton-Anglim booking (WAB) task. The task allowed for multiple component strategies (i.e., memory retrieval, information reduction, and insight) that could also be aggregated to a global measure of strategy use. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to compare abrupt and gradual functions of component and aggregate strategy use. Task completion time was well-modeled by a power function, and global strategy use explained substantial variance in performance. Change in component strategy use tended to be abrupt, whereas change in global strategy use was gradual and well-modeled by a power function. Thus, differential timing of component strategy shifts leads to gradual changes in overall strategy efficiency, and this provides one reason for why smooth learning curves can co-occur with abrupt changes in strategy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Hierarchical modeling of systems with similar components: A framework for adaptive monitoring and control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Memarzadeh, Milad; Pozzi, Matteo; Kolter, J. Zico

    2016-01-01

    System management includes the selection of maintenance actions depending on the available observations: when a system is made up by components known to be similar, data collected on one is also relevant for the management of others. This is typically the case of wind farms, which are made up by similar turbines. Optimal management of wind farms is an important task due to high cost of turbines' operation and maintenance: in this context, we recently proposed a method for planning and learning at system-level, called PLUS, built upon the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework, which treats transition and emission probabilities as random variables, and is therefore suitable for including model uncertainty. PLUS models the components as independent or identical. In this paper, we extend that formulation, allowing for a weaker similarity among components. The proposed approach, called Multiple Uncertain POMDP (MU-POMDP), models the components as POMDPs, and assumes the corresponding parameters as dependent random variables. Through this framework, we can calibrate specific degradation and emission models for each component while, at the same time, process observations at system-level. We compare the performance of the proposed MU-POMDP with PLUS, and discuss its potential and computational complexity. - Highlights: • A computational framework is proposed for adaptive monitoring and control. • It adopts a scheme based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo for inference and learning. • Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is used to allow a system-level flow of information. • Results show potential of significant savings in management of wind farms.

  2. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees

  3. Hierarchical modelling of in situ elastic deformation of human enamel based on photoelastic and diffraction analysis of stresses and strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Tan; Lunt, Alexander J G; Baimpas, Nikolaos; Sandholzer, Michael A; Hu, Jianan; Dolbnya, Igor P; Landini, Gabriel; Korsunsky, Alexander M

    2014-01-01

    Human enamel is a typical hierarchical mineralized tissue with a two-level composite structure. To date, few studies have focused on how the mechanical behaviour of this tissue is affected by both the rod orientation at the microscale and the preferred orientation of mineral crystallites at the nanoscale. In this study, wide-angle X-ray scattering was used to determine the internal lattice strain response of human enamel samples (with differing rod directions) as a function of in situ uniaxial compressive loading. Quantitative stress distribution evaluation in the birefringent mounting epoxy was performed in parallel using photoelastic techniques. The resulting experimental data was analysed using an advanced multiscale Eshelby inclusion model that takes into account the two-level hierarchical structure of human enamel, and reflects the differing rod directions and orientation distributions of hydroxyapatite crystals. The achieved satisfactory agreement between the model and the experimental data, in terms of the values of multidirectional strain components under the action of differently orientated loads, suggests that the multiscale approach captures reasonably successfully the structure-property relationship between the hierarchical architecture of human enamel and its response to the applied forces. This novel and systematic approach can be used to improve the interpretation of the mechanical properties of enamel, as well as of the textured hierarchical biomaterials in general. Copyright © 2013 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty: STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY DIAGNOSTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moges, Edom [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Demissie, Yonas [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-04-01

    In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. The results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

  5. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  6. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  7. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  8. A hierarchical model of goal directed navigation selects trajectories in a visual environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Uğur M; Milford, Michael J; Hasselmo, Michael E

    2015-01-01

    We have developed a Hierarchical Look-Ahead Trajectory Model (HiLAM) that incorporates the firing pattern of medial entorhinal grid cells in a planning circuit that includes interactions with hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. We show the model's flexibility in representing large real world environments using odometry information obtained from challenging video sequences. We acquire the visual data from a camera mounted on a small tele-operated vehicle. The camera has a panoramic field of view with its focal point approximately 5 cm above the ground level, similar to what would be expected from a rat's point of view. Using established algorithms for calculating perceptual speed from the apparent rate of visual change over time, we generate raw dead reckoning information which loses spatial fidelity over time due to error accumulation. We rectify the loss of fidelity by exploiting the loop-closure detection ability of a biologically inspired, robot navigation model termed RatSLAM. The rectified motion information serves as a velocity input to the HiLAM to encode the environment in the form of grid cell and place cell maps. Finally, we show goal directed path planning results of HiLAM in two different environments, an indoor square maze used in rodent experiments and an outdoor arena more than two orders of magnitude larger than the indoor maze. Together these results bridge for the first time the gap between higher fidelity bio-inspired navigation models (HiLAM) and more abstracted but highly functional bio-inspired robotic mapping systems (RatSLAM), and move from simulated environments into real-world studies in rodent-sized arenas and beyond. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

  10. Role of scaling in the statistical modelling of finance

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Economics and mathematical finance are multidisciplinary fields in which the ten- dency of statistical physicists to focus on universal laws has been criticized some- ..... is coherent and catches the essential statistical features of a long index history. A very important test for the proposed model concerns the scaling of the ...

  11. Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior

  12. Assessing risk factors for dental caries: a statistical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trottini, Mario; Bossù, Maurizio; Corridore, Denise; Ierardo, Gaetano; Luzzi, Valeria; Saccucci, Matteo; Polimeni, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    The problem of identifying potential determinants and predictors of dental caries is of key importance in caries research and it has received considerable attention in the scientific literature. From the methodological side, a broad range of statistical models is currently available to analyze dental caries indices (DMFT, dmfs, etc.). These models have been applied in several studies to investigate the impact of different risk factors on the cumulative severity of dental caries experience. However, in most of the cases (i) these studies focus on a very specific subset of risk factors; and (ii) in the statistical modeling only few candidate models are considered and model selection is at best only marginally addressed. As a result, our understanding of the robustness of the statistical inferences with respect to the choice of the model is very limited; the richness of the set of statistical models available for analysis in only marginally exploited; and inferences could be biased due the omission of potentially important confounding variables in the model's specification. In this paper we argue that these limitations can be overcome considering a general class of candidate models and carefully exploring the model space using standard model selection criteria and measures of global fit and predictive performance of the candidate models. Strengths and limitations of the proposed approach are illustrated with a real data set. In our illustration the model space contains more than 2.6 million models, which require inferences to be adjusted for 'optimism'.

  13. The Blume-Capel model on hierarchical lattices: Exact local properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha-Neto, Mário J. G.; Camelo-Neto, G.; Nogueira, E., Jr.; Coutinho, S.

    2018-03-01

    The local properties of the spin one ferromagnetic Blume-Capel model defined on hierarchical lattices with dimension two and three are obtained by a numerical recursion procedure and studied as functions of the temperature and the reduced crystal-field parameter. The magnetization and the density of sites in the configuration S = 0 state are carefully investigated at low temperature in the region of the phase diagram that presents the phenomenon of phase reentrance. Both order parameters undergo transitions from the ferromagnetic to the ordered paramagnetic phase with abrupt discontinuities that decrease along the phase boundary at low temperatures. The distribution of magnetization in a typical profile was determined on the transition line presenting a broad multifractal spectrum that narrows towards the fractal limit (single point) as the discontinuities of the order parameters grow towards a maximum. The amplitude of the order-parameter discontinuities and the narrowing of the multifractal spectra were used to delimit the low temperature interval for the possible locus of the tricritical point.

  14. Subjective value of risky foods for individual domestic chicks: a hierarchical Bayesian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamori, Ai; Matsushima, Toshiya

    2010-05-01

    For animals to decide which prey to attack, the gain and delay of the food item must be integrated in a value function. However, the subjective value is not obtained by expected profitability when it is accompanied by risk. To estimate the subjective value, we examined choices in a cross-shaped maze with two colored feeders in domestic chicks. When tested by a reversal in food amount or delay, chicks changed choices similarly in both conditions (experiment 1). We therefore examined risk sensitivity for amount and delay (experiment 2) by supplying one feeder with food of fixed profitability and the alternative feeder with high- or low-profitability food at equal probability. Profitability varied in amount (groups 1 and 2 at high and low variance) or in delay (group 3). To find the equilibrium, the amount (groups 1 and 2) or delay (group 3) of the food in the fixed feeder was adjusted in a total of 18 blocks. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method was applied to a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the subjective value. Chicks undervalued the variable feeder in group 1 and were indifferent in group 2 but overvalued the variable feeder in group 3 at a population level. Re-examination without the titration procedure (experiment 3) suggested that the subjective value was not absolute for each option. When the delay was varied, the variable option was often given a paradoxically high value depending on fixed alternative. Therefore, the basic assumption of the uniquely determined value function might be questioned.

  15. A hierarchical model for the ages of Galactic halo white dwarfs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Shijing; van Dyk, David A.; von Hippel, Ted; Robinson, Elliot; Webster, Aaron; Stenning, David

    2017-07-01

    In astrophysics, we often aim to estimate one or more parameters for each member object in a population and study the distribution of the fitted parameters across the population. In this paper, we develop novel methods that allow us to take advantage of existing software designed for such case-by-case analyses to simultaneously fit parameters of both the individual objects and the parameters that quantify their distribution across the population. Our methods are based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling that is known to produce parameter estimators for the individual objects that are on average closer to their true values than estimators based on case-by-case analyses. We verify this in the context of estimating ages of Galactic halo white dwarfs (WDs) via a series of simulation studies. Finally, we deploy our new techniques on optical and near-infrared photometry of 10 candidate halo WDs to obtain estimates of their ages along with an estimate of the mean age of Galactic halo WDs of 12.11_{-0.86}^{+0.85} Gyr. Although this sample is small, our technique lays the ground work for large-scale studies using data from the Gaia mission.

  16. Hierarchical modeling of indoor radon concentration: how much do geology and building factors matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgoni, Riccardo; De Francesco, Davide; De Bartolo, Daniela; Tzavidis, Nikos

    2014-01-01

    Radon is a natural gas known to be the main contributor to natural background radiation exposure and only second to smoking as major leading cause of lung cancer. The main concern is in indoor environments where the gas tends to accumulate and can reach high concentrations. The primary contributor of this gas into the building is from the soil although architectonic characteristics, such as building materials, can largely affect concentration values. Understanding the factors affecting the concentration in dwellings and workplaces is important both in prevention, when the construction of a new building is being planned, and in mitigation when the amount of Radon detected inside a building is too high. In this paper we investigate how several factors, such as geologic typologies of the soil and a range of building characteristics, impact on indoor concentration focusing, in particular, on how concentration changes as a function of the floor level. Adopting a mixed effects model to account for the hierarchical nature of the data, we also quantify the extent to which such measurable factors manage to explain the variability of indoor radon concentration. - Highlights: • It is assessed how the variability of indoor radon concentration depends on buildings and lithologies. • The lithological component has been found less relevant than the building one. • Radon-prone lithologies have been identified. • The effect of the floor where the room is located has been estimated. • Indoor radon concentration have been predicted for different dwelling typologies

  17. Determination of a Differential Item Functioning Procedure Using the Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tülin Acar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compare the result of the differential item functioning (DIF determining with hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM technique and the results of the DIF determining with logistic regression (LR and item response theory–likelihood ratio (IRT-LR techniques on the test items. For this reason, first in this research, it is determined whether the students encounter DIF with HGLM, LR, and IRT-LR techniques according to socioeconomic status (SES, in the Turkish, Social Sciences, and Science subtest items of the Secondary School Institutions Examination. When inspecting the correlations among the techniques in terms of determining the items having DIF, it was discovered that there was significant correlation between the results of IRT-LR and LR techniques in all subtests; merely in Science subtest, the results of the correlation between HGLM and IRT-LR techniques were found significant. DIF applications can be made on test items with other DIF analysis techniques that were not taken to the scope of this research. The analysis results, which were determined by using the DIF techniques in different sample sizes, can be compared.

  18. Hierarchical modeling of indoor radon concentration: how much do geology and building factors matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgoni, Riccardo; De Francesco, Davide; De Bartolo, Daniela; Tzavidis, Nikos

    2014-12-01

    Radon is a natural gas known to be the main contributor to natural background radiation exposure and only second to smoking as major leading cause of lung cancer. The main concern is in indoor environments where the gas tends to accumulate and can reach high concentrations. The primary contributor of this gas into the building is from the soil although architectonic characteristics, such as building materials, can largely affect concentration values. Understanding the factors affecting the concentration in dwellings and workplaces is important both in prevention, when the construction of a new building is being planned, and in mitigation when the amount of Radon detected inside a building is too high. In this paper we investigate how several factors, such as geologic typologies of the soil and a range of building characteristics, impact on indoor concentration focusing, in particular, on how concentration changes as a function of the floor level. Adopting a mixed effects model to account for the hierarchical nature of the data, we also quantify the extent to which such measurable factors manage to explain the variability of indoor radon concentration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Examining Factors Affecting Science Achievement of Hong Kong in PISA 2006 Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Terence Yuk Ping; Lau, Kwok Chi

    2014-10-01

    This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to examine the influence of a range of factors on the science performances of Hong Kong students in PISA 2006. Hong Kong has been consistently ranked highly in international science assessments, such as Programme for International Student Assessment and Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; therefore, an exploration of the factors that affect science performances of Hong Kong students can give a lens to examine how science education can be improved in Hong Kong and other countries. The analyses reveal that student backgrounds as male, at higher grade levels, and born in mainland (when in the same grade) are associated with better science performance. Among the attitudinal factors, enjoyment of science and self-efficacy in science play important roles in scientific achievements. Most of the parental factors, on the other hand, are not having significant impacts on achievement after student attitudes are taken into account, with only parents' value of science having a small effect. School student intake is found to be a strong predictor of school average achievement, as well as a major mediator of the effects of school enrollment size and school socio-economic status. The findings differ from recently reported results, which suggested that school enrollment size was associated with achievement. This study also points out the problems of the use of science instruction time as a school-level variable to explain science achievement in Hong Kong.

  20. Multi-scale chromatin state annotation using a hierarchical hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marco, Eugenio; Meuleman, Wouter; Huang, Jialiang; Glass, Kimberly; Pinello, Luca; Wang, Jianrong; Kellis, Manolis; Yuan, Guo-Cheng

    2017-04-01

    Chromatin-state analysis is widely applied in the studies of development and diseases. However, existing methods operate at a single length scale, and therefore cannot distinguish large domains from isolated elements of the same type. To overcome this limitation, we present a hierarchical hidden Markov model, diHMM, to systematically annotate chromatin states at multiple length scales. We apply diHMM to analyse a public ChIP-seq data set. diHMM not only accurately captures nucleosome-level information, but identifies domain-level states that vary in nucleosome-level state composition, spatial distribution and functionality. The domain-level states recapitulate known patterns such as super-enhancers, bivalent promoters and Polycomb repressed regions, and identify additional patterns whose biological functions are not yet characterized. By integrating chromatin-state information with gene expression and Hi-C data, we identify context-dependent functions of nucleosome-level states. Thus, diHMM provides a powerful tool for investigating the role of higher-order chromatin structure in gene regulation.

  1. Improving statistical reasoning theoretical models and practical implications

    CERN Document Server

    Sedlmeier, Peter

    1999-01-01

    This book focuses on how statistical reasoning works and on training programs that can exploit people''s natural cognitive capabilities to improve their statistical reasoning. Training programs that take into account findings from evolutionary psychology and instructional theory are shown to have substantially larger effects that are more stable over time than previous training regimens. The theoretical implications are traced in a neural network model of human performance on statistical reasoning problems. This book apppeals to judgment and decision making researchers and other cognitive scientists, as well as to teachers of statistics and probabilistic reasoning.

  2. Hierarchical regression for analyses of multiple outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Hamra, Ghassan B; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao

    2015-09-01

    In cohort mortality studies, there often is interest in associations between an exposure of primary interest and mortality due to a range of different causes. A standard approach to such analyses involves fitting a separate regression model for each type of outcome. However, the statistical precision of some estimated associations may be poor because of sparse data. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical regression model for estimation of parameters describing outcome-specific relative rate functions and associated credible intervals. The proposed model uses background stratification to provide flexible control for the outcome-specific associations of potential confounders, and it employs a hierarchical "shrinkage" approach to stabilize estimates of an exposure's associations with mortality due to different causes of death. The approach is illustrated in analyses of cancer mortality in 2 cohorts: a cohort of dioxin-exposed US chemical workers and a cohort of radiation-exposed Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Compared with standard regression estimates of associations, hierarchical regression yielded estimates with improved precision that tended to have less extreme values. The hierarchical regression approach also allowed the fitting of models with effect-measure modification. The proposed hierarchical approach can yield estimates of association that are more precise than conventional estimates when one wishes to estimate associations with multiple outcomes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Schedulability of Herschel revisited using statistical model checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2015-01-01

    to obtain some guarantee on the (un)schedulability of the model even in the presence of undecidability. Two methods are considered: symbolic model checking and statistical model checking. Since the model uses stop-watches, the reachability problem becomes undecidable so we are using an over......-approximation technique. We can safely conclude that the system is schedulable for varying values of BCET. For the cases where deadlines are violated, we use polyhedra to try to confirm the witnesses. Our alternative method to confirm non-schedulability uses statistical model-checking (SMC) to generate counter...

  4. Some remarks on the statistical model of heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, V.

    2003-01-01

    This contribution is an attempt to assess what can be learned from the remarkable success of this statistical model in describing ratios of particle abundances in ultra-relativistic heavy ion collisions

  5. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products

  6. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  7. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees

  8. Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaak, Daniel J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Wenger, Seth J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Sowder, Colin; Steel, E. Ashley; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordan, Chris E.; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Som, Nicholas; Monestiez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for terrestrial applications and are not optimized for streams. A new class of spatial statistical model, based on valid covariance structures for stream networks, can be used with many common types of stream data (e.g., water quality attributes, habitat conditions, biological surveys) through application of appropriate distributions (e.g., Gaussian, binomial, Poisson). The spatial statistical network models account for spatial autocorrelation (i.e., nonindependence) among measurements, which allows their application to databases with clustered measurement locations. Large amounts of stream data exist in many areas where spatial statistical analyses could be used to develop novel insights, improve predictions at unsampled sites, and aid in the design of efficient monitoring strategies at relatively low cost. We review the topic of spatial autocorrelation and its effects on statistical inference, demonstrate the use of spatial statistics with stream datasets relevant to common research and management questions, and discuss additional applications and development potential for spatial statistics on stream networks. Free software for implementing the spatial statistical network models has been developed that enables custom applications with many stream databases.

  9. Possibilities of the Statistical Scoring Models' Application at Lithuanian Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Dzidzevičiūtė, Laima

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this dissertation is to develop the rating system of Lithuanian companies based on the statistical scoring model and assess the possibilities of this system‘s application at Lithuanian banks. The dissertation consists of three Chapters. Development and application peculiarities of rating systems based on statistical scoring models are described in the first Chapter. In the second Chapter the results of the survey of commercial banks and foreign bank branches, operating in the coun...

  10. A no extensive statistical model for the nucleon structure function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trevisan, Luis A. [Departamento de Matematica e Estatistica, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, 84010-790, Ponta Grossa, PR (Brazil); Mirez, Carlos [Instituto de Ciencia, Engenharia e Tecnologia - ICET, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri - UFVJM, Campus do Mucuri, Rua do Cruzeiro 01, Jardim Sao Paulo, 39803-371, Teofilo Otoni, Minas Gerais (Brazil)

    2013-03-25

    We studied an application of nonextensive thermodynamics to describe the structure function of nucleon, in a model where the usual Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein energy distribution were replaced by the equivalent functions of the q-statistical. The parameters of the model are given by an effective temperature T, the q parameter (from Tsallis statistics), and two chemical potentials given by the corresponding up (u) and down (d) quark normalization in the nucleon.

  11. Improved analyses using function datasets and statistical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    John S. Hogland; Nathaniel M. Anderson

    2014-01-01

    Raster modeling is an integral component of spatial analysis. However, conventional raster modeling techniques can require a substantial amount of processing time and storage space and have limited statistical functionality and machine learning algorithms. To address this issue, we developed a new modeling framework using C# and ArcObjects and integrated that framework...

  12. What's statistical about learning? Insights from modelling statistical learning as a set of memory processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiessen, Erik D

    2017-01-05

    Statistical learning has been studied in a variety of different tasks, including word segmentation, object identification, category learning, artificial grammar learning and serial reaction time tasks (e.g. Saffran et al. 1996 Science 274: , 1926-1928; Orban et al. 2008 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: , 2745-2750; Thiessen & Yee 2010 Child Development 81: , 1287-1303; Saffran 2002 Journal of Memory and Language 47: , 172-196; Misyak & Christiansen 2012 Language Learning 62: , 302-331). The difference among these tasks raises questions about whether they all depend on the same kinds of underlying processes and computations, or whether they are tapping into different underlying mechanisms. Prior theoretical approaches to statistical learning have often tried to explain or model learning in a single task. However, in many cases these approaches appear inadequate to explain performance in multiple tasks. For example, explaining word segmentation via the computation of sequential statistics (such as transitional probability) provides little insight into the nature of sensitivity to regularities among simultaneously presented features. In this article, we will present a formal computational approach that we believe is a good candidate to provide a unifying framework to explore and explain learning in a wide variety of statistical learning tasks. This framework suggests that statistical learning arises from a set of processes that are inherent in memory systems, including activation, interference, integration of information and forgetting (e.g. Perruchet & Vinter 1998 Journal of Memory and Language 39: , 246-263; Thiessen et al. 2013 Psychological Bulletin 139: , 792-814). From this perspective, statistical learning does not involve explicit computation of statistics, but rather the extraction of elements of the input into memory traces, and subsequent integration across those memory traces that emphasize consistent information (Thiessen and Pavlik

  13. Using hierarchical linear models to test differences in Swedish results from OECD’s PISA 2003: Integrated and subject-specific science education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Åström

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The possible effects of different organisations of the science curriculum in schools participating in PISA 2003 are tested with a hierarchical linear model (HLM of two levels. The analysis is based on science results. Swedish schools are free to choose how they organise the science curriculum. They may choose to work subject-specifically (with Biology, Chemistry and Physics, integrated (with Science or to mix these two. In this study, all three ways of organising science classes in compulsory school are present to some degree. None of the different ways of organising science education displayed statistically significant better student results in scientific literacy as measured in PISA 2003. The HLM model used variables of gender, country of birth, home language, preschool attendance, an economic, social and cultural index as well as the teaching organisation.

  14. Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Simultaneous EEG Source and Forward Model Reconstruction (SOFOMORE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface, and ele......In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface...... and real EEG data demonstrate that invoking a stochastic forward model leads to improved source estimates....

  15. Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Stapleton, James H

    2007-01-01

    This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

  16. Statistical detection model for eddy-current systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, J.R.; Bahr, A.J.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter presents a detailed analysis of some measured noise data and the results of using those data with a probe-flaw interaction model to compute the surface-crack detection characteristics of two different air-core coil probes. The objective is to develop a statistical model for determining the probability of detecting a given flaw using an eddy-current system. The basis for developing a statistical detection model is a measurement model that relates the output voltage of the system to its various signal and noise components. Topics considered include statistics of the measured background voltage, calibration of the probe-flaw interaction model and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) definition, the operating characteristic, and a comparison of air-core probes

  17. Sparse Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Badiu, Mihai Alin

    2015-01-01

    -valued models, this paper proposes a GSM model - the Bessel K model - that induces concave penalty functions for the estimation of complex sparse signals. The properties of the Bessel K model are analyzed when it is applied to Type I and Type II estimation. This analysis reveals that, by tuning the parameters...... of the mixing pdf different penalty functions are invoked depending on the estimation type used, the value of the noise variance, and whether real or complex signals are estimated. Using the Bessel K model, we derive a sparse estimator based on a modification of the expectation-maximization algorithm formulated......In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex...

  18. Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

    2016-08-01

    In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population

  19. Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software

    CERN Document Server

    West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T

    2006-01-01

    Simplifying the often confusing array of software programs for fitting linear mixed models (LMMs), Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software provides a basic introduction to primary concepts, notation, software implementation, model interpretation, and visualization of clustered and longitudinal data. This easy-to-navigate reference details the use of procedures for fitting LMMs in five popular statistical software packages: SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM. The authors introduce basic theoretical concepts, present a heuristic approach to fitting LMMs based on bo

  20. Statistical Model and the mesonic-baryonic transition region

    CERN Document Server

    Oeschler, H.; Redlich, K.; Wheaton, S.

    2009-01-01

    The statistical model assuming chemical equilibriumand local strangeness conservation describes most of the observed features of strange particle production from SIS up to RHIC. Deviations are found as the maximum in the measured K+/pi+ ratio is much sharper than in the model calculations. At the incident energy of the maximum, the statistical model shows that freeze out changes regime from one being dominated by baryons at the lower energies toward one being dominated by mesons. It will be shown how deviations from the usual freeze-out curve influence the various particle ratios. Furthermore, other observables exhibit also changes just in this energy regime.

  1. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  2. Multi-region Statistical Shape Model for Cochlear Implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Romera, Jordi; Kjer, H. Martin; Piella, Gemma

    2016-01-01

    Statistical shape models are commonly used to analyze the variability between similar anatomical structures and their use is established as a tool for analysis and segmentation of medical images. However, using a global model to capture the variability of complex structures is not enough to achie...

  3. Evaluation of Statistical Models for Analysis of Insect, Disease and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is concluded that LMMs and GLMs simultaneously consider the effect of treatments and heterogeneity of variance and hence are more appropriate for analysis of abundance and incidence data than ordinary ANOVA. Keywords: Mixed Models; Generalized Linear Models; Statistical Power East African Journal of Sciences ...

  4. Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Mantovan, Pietro

    2010-01-01

    The last years have seen the advent and development of many devices able to record and store an always increasing amount of complex and high dimensional data; 3D images generated by medical scanners or satellite remote sensing, DNA microarrays, real time financial data, system control datasets. The analysis of this data poses new challenging problems and requires the development of novel statistical models and computational methods, fueling many fascinating and fast growing research areas of modern statistics. The book offers a wide variety of statistical methods and is addressed to statistici

  5. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  6. Modeling Statistics of Fish Patchiness and Predicting Associated Influence on Statistics of Acoustic Echoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    information on fish school distributions by monitoring the direction of birds returning to the colony or the behavior of other birds at sea through...active sonar. Toward this goal, fundamental advances in the understanding of fish behavior , especially in aggregations, will be made under conditions...relevant to the echo statistics problem. OBJECTIVES To develop new models of behavior of fish aggregations, including the fission/fusion process

  7. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  8. Towards directional assembly of hierarchical structures: aniline oligomers as the model precursors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zhao, Y.; Stejskal, Jaroslav; Wang, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 7 (2013), s. 2620-2626 ISSN 2040-3364 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP205/12/0911 Institutional support: RVO:61389013 Keywords : anilin e oligomers * hierarchical nanostructures * microflowers Subject RIV: CD - Macromolecular Chemistry Impact factor: 6.739, year: 2013

  9. Treatment of Missing Data at the Second Level of Hierarchical Linear Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Nicole Morgan; Olejnik, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    Studied the problem of missing data at the second level of a two-level hierarchal data structure using data generated to simulate the 1982 High School and Beyond data set with five different missing data treatments: listwise deletion, overall mean substitution, group mean substitution, the EM algorithm, and multiple imputation. (SLD)

  10. A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model to forecast trapped particle fluxes over the SAA region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Suparta, W.; Gusrizal, G.; Kudela, Karel; Isa, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 3 (2017), s. 357-370 ISSN 1017-0839 R&D Projects: GA MŠk EF15_003/0000481 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : trapped particle * spatio-temporal * hierarchical Bayesian * forecasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 0.752, year: 2016

  11. Evaluating the Impacts of ICT Use: A Multi-Level Analysis with Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hae-Deok; Kang, Taehoon

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of ICT use on achievements by considering not only ICT use, but also the process and background variables that influence ICT use at both the student- and school-level. This study was conducted using data from the 2010 Survey of Seoul Education Longitudinal Research. A Hierarchical Linear…

  12. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Blume

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

  13. Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

  14. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  15. Modern statistical models for forensic fingerprint examinations: a critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Joshua; Champod, Christophe; Lennard, Chris; Roux, Claude

    2013-10-10

    Over the last decade, the development of statistical models in support of forensic fingerprint identification has been the subject of increasing research attention, spurned on recently by commentators who claim that the scientific basis for fingerprint identification has not been adequately demonstrated. Such models are increasingly seen as useful tools in support of the fingerprint identification process within or in addition to the ACE-V framework. This paper provides a critical review of recent statistical models from both a practical and theoretical perspective. This includes analysis of models of two different methodologies: Probability of Random Correspondence (PRC) models that focus on calculating probabilities of the occurrence of fingerprint configurations for a given population, and Likelihood Ratio (LR) models which use analysis of corresponding features of fingerprints to derive a likelihood value representing the evidential weighting for a potential source. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Growth Curve Models and Applications : Indian Statistical Institute

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    Growth curve models in longitudinal studies are widely used to model population size, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other variables in the biological sciences, but these statistical methods for modeling growth curves and analyzing longitudinal data also extend to general statistics, economics, public health, demographics, epidemiology, SQC, sociology, nano-biotechnology, fluid mechanics, and other applied areas.   There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth measurement. The selected papers in this volume build on presentations from the GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, on March 28-29, 2016. They represent recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This book includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of app lied work, and these contributions have been externally r...

  17. Statistical modelling for recurrent events: an application to sports injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullah, Shahid; Gabbett, Tim J; Finch, Caroline F

    2014-09-01

    Injuries are often recurrent, with subsequent injuries influenced by previous occurrences and hence correlation between events needs to be taken into account when analysing such data. This paper compares five different survival models (Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model and the following generalisations to recurrent event data: Andersen-Gill (A-G), frailty, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld total time (WLW-TT) marginal, Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap time (PWP-GT) conditional models) for the analysis of recurrent injury data. Empirical evaluation and comparison of different models were performed using model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulation studies assessed the size and power of each model fit. The modelling approach is demonstrated through direct application to Australian National Rugby League recurrent injury data collected over the 2008 playing season. Of the 35 players analysed, 14 (40%) players had more than 1 injury and 47 contact injuries were sustained over 29 matches. The CoxPH model provided the poorest fit to the recurrent sports injury data. The fit was improved with the A-G and frailty models, compared to WLW-TT and PWP-GT models. Despite little difference in model fit between the A-G and frailty models, in the interest of fewer statistical assumptions it is recommended that, where relevant, future studies involving modelling of recurrent sports injury data use the frailty model in preference to the CoxPH model or its other generalisations. The paper provides a rationale for future statistical modelling approaches for recurrent sports injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  18. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  19. Statistical Model of the 2001 Czech Census for Interactive Presentation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grim, Jiří; Hora, Jan; Boček, Pavel; Somol, Petr; Pudil, Pavel

    Vol. 26, č. 4 (2010), s. 1-23 ISSN 0282-423X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/07/1594; GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Interactive statistical model * census data presentation * distribution mixtures * data modeling * EM algorithm * incomplete data * data reproduction accuracy * data mining Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.492, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/RO/grim-0350513.pdf

  20. The hierarchical structure of common mental disorders: Connecting multiple levels of comorbidity, bifactor models, and predictive validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyunsik; Eaton, Nicholas R

    2015-11-01

    Studies of mental disorder comorbidity have produced an unsynthesized literature with multiple competing transdiagnostic models. The current study attempted to (a) integrate these models into an overarching comorbidity hierarchy, (b) link the resulting transdiagnostic factors to the bifactor model of psychopathology, and (c) investigate predictive validity of transdiagnostic factors for important future outcomes. A series of exploratory structural equation models (ESEMs) was conducted on 12 common mental disorders from a large, 2-wave nationally representative sample, using the bass-ackwards method to explore the hierarchical structure of transdiagnostic comorbidity factors. These Wave 1 factors were then linked with the bifactor model and with mental disorders at Wave 2. Results indicated that common mental disorder comorbidity was structured into an interpretable hierarchy. Connections between the hierarchy's general factor of psychopathology (denoted p), internalizing, and distress were very strong; these factors also linked strongly with the bifactor model's p factor. Predictive validity analyses prospectively predicting subsequent diagnoses indicated that, overall: (a) transdiagnostic factors outperformed disorder-specific variance; (b) within hierarchy levels, transdiagnostic factors where disorders optimally loaded outperformed other transdiagnostic factors, but this differed by disorder type; and (c) between hierarchy levels, transdiagnostic factors where disorders optimally loaded showed similar predictive validity. We discuss implications for hierarchical structure modeling, the integration of multiple competing comorbidity models, and benefits of transdiagnostic factors for understanding the continuity of mental disorders over time. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).