WorldWideScience

Sample records for hierarchical fracture models

  1. Hierarchical multiscale modeling for flows in fractured media using generalized multiscale finite element method

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.

    2015-06-05

    In this paper, we develop a multiscale finite element method for solving flows in fractured media. Our approach is based on generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM), where we represent the fracture effects on a coarse grid via multiscale basis functions. These multiscale basis functions are constructed in the offline stage via local spectral problems following GMsFEM. To represent the fractures on the fine grid, we consider two approaches (1) discrete fracture model (DFM) (2) embedded fracture model (EFM) and their combination. In DFM, the fractures are resolved via the fine grid, while in EFM the fracture and the fine grid block interaction is represented as a source term. In the proposed multiscale method, additional multiscale basis functions are used to represent the long fractures, while short-size fractures are collectively represented by a single basis functions. The procedure is automatically done via local spectral problems. In this regard, our approach shares common concepts with several approaches proposed in the literature as we discuss. We would like to emphasize that our goal is not to compare DFM with EFM, but rather to develop GMsFEM framework which uses these (DFM or EFM) fine-grid discretization techniques. Numerical results are presented, where we demonstrate how one can adaptively add basis functions in the regions of interest based on error indicators. We also discuss the use of randomized snapshots (Calo et al. Randomized oversampling for generalized multiscale finite element methods, 2014), which reduces the offline computational cost.

  2. Stress generation and hierarchical fracturing in reactive systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamtveit, B.; Iyer, K.; Royne, A.; Malthe-Sorenssen, A.; Mathiesen, J.; Feder, J.

    2007-12-01

    Hierarchical fracture patterns are the result of a slowly driven fracturing process that successively divides the rocks into smaller domains. In quasi-2D systems, such fracture patterns are characterized by four sided domains, and T-junctions where new fractures stop at right angles to pre-existing fractures. We describe fracturing of mm to dm thick enstatite layers in a dunite matrix from the Leka ophiolite complex in Norway. The fracturing process is driven by expansion of the dunite matrix during serpentinization. The cumulative distributions of fracture lengths show a scaling behavior that lies between a log - normal and power law (fractal) distribution. This is consistent with a simple fragmentation model in which domains are divided according to a 'top hat' distribution of new fracture positions within unfractured domains. Reaction-assisted hierarchical fracturing is also likely to be responsible for other (3-D) structures commonly observed in serpentinized ultramafic rocks, including the mesh-textures observed in individual olivine grains, and the high abundance of rectangular domains at a wide range of scales. Spectacular examples of 3-D hierarchical fracture patterns also form during the weathering of basaltic intrusions (dolerites). Incipient chemical weathering of dolerites in the Karoo Basin in South Africa occurs around water- filled fractures, originally produced by thermal contraction or by externally imposed stresses. This chemical weathering causes local expansion of the rock matrix and generates elastic stresses. On a mm to cm scale, these stresses lead to mechanical layer-by-layer spalling, producing the characteristic spheroidal weathering patterns. However, our field observations and computer simulations demonstrate that in confined environments, the spalling process alone is unable to relieve the elastic stresses. In such cases, chemical weathering drives a much larger scale hierarchical fracturing process in which fresh dolerite undergoes a

  3. Collaborative Hierarchical Sparse Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Sprechmann, Pablo; Sapiro, Guillermo; Eldar, Yonina C

    2010-01-01

    Sparse modeling is a powerful framework for data analysis and processing. Traditionally, encoding in this framework is done by solving an l_1-regularized linear regression problem, usually called Lasso. In this work we first combine the sparsity-inducing property of the Lasso model, at the individual feature level, with the block-sparsity property of the group Lasso model, where sparse groups of features are jointly encoded, obtaining a sparsity pattern hierarchically structured. This results in the hierarchical Lasso, which shows important practical modeling advantages. We then extend this approach to the collaborative case, where a set of simultaneously coded signals share the same sparsity pattern at the higher (group) level but not necessarily at the lower one. Signals then share the same active groups, or classes, but not necessarily the same active set. This is very well suited for applications such as source separation. An efficient optimization procedure, which guarantees convergence to the global opt...

  4. Modeling hierarchical structures - Hierarchical Linear Modeling using MPlus

    CERN Document Server

    Jelonek, M

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the technique (and its linkage with physics) of overcoming problems connected to modeling social structures, which are typically hierarchical. Hierarchical Linear Models provide a conceptual and statistical mechanism for drawing conclusions regarding the influence of phenomena at different levels of analysis. In the social sciences it is used to analyze many problems such as educational, organizational or market dilemma. This paper introduces the logic of modeling hierarchical linear equations and estimation based on MPlus software. I present my own model to illustrate the impact of different factors on school acceptation level.

  5. High fracture toughness in a hierarchical nanostructured zirconium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Ming [State Key Laboratory of Metastable Materials Science and Technology, Yanshan University, 066004 Qinhuangdao (China); College of Mechanical Engineering, Yanshan University, 066004 Qinhuangdao (China); Guo, Defeng; Ma, Tengyun; Zhang, Guosheng; Shi, Yindong [State Key Laboratory of Metastable Materials Science and Technology, Yanshan University, 066004 Qinhuangdao (China); Zhang, Xiangyi, E-mail: xyzh66@ysu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Metastable Materials Science and Technology, Yanshan University, 066004 Qinhuangdao (China)

    2014-06-01

    Nanocrystalline metals usually exhibit a high strength but a disappointingly low ductility and toughness, which limit their practical utility. Here, we report a high fracture toughness (K{sub IC}∼117 MPa m{sup 1/2}) in a hierarchical nanostructured Zr that consists of nano-, sub-micrometer- and micrometer-sized grains, which is much larger than that K{sub IC}∼78 MPa m{sup 1/2} in coarse-grained Zr. This hierarchical nanostructured Zr shows a good combination of yield strength (σ{sub s}∼550 MPa) and fracture toughness as compared with its coarse-grained counterpart. We expect that these results will have implications in the enhancement of fracture toughness of nanocrystalline materials and in the design of high-performance structural materials.

  6. Modeling hierarchical structures - Hierarchical Linear Modeling using MPlus

    OpenAIRE

    Jelonek, Magdalena

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the technique (and its linkage with physics) of overcoming problems connected to modeling social structures, which are typically hierarchical. Hierarchical Linear Models provide a conceptual and statistical mechanism for drawing conclusions regarding the influence of phenomena at different levels of analysis. In the social sciences it is used to analyze many problems such as educational, organizational or market dilemma. This paper introduces the logic of m...

  7. Bounds for the time to failure of hierarchical systems of fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gómez, J.B.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; Moreno, Y.

    1999-01-01

    For years limited Monte Carlo simulations have led to the suspicion that the time to failure of hierarchically organized load-transfer models of fracture is nonzero for sets of infinite size. This fact could have profound significance in engineering practice and also in geophysics. Here, we devel...

  8. Hierarchical Bass model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tashiro, Tohru

    2014-03-01

    We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model.

  9. Hierarchical Bass model

    CERN Document Server

    Tashiro, Tohru

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model.

  10. Hierarchical Cont-Bouchaud model

    CERN Document Server

    Paluch, Robert; Holyst, Janusz A

    2015-01-01

    We extend the well-known Cont-Bouchaud model to include a hierarchical topology of agent's interactions. The influence of hierarchy on system dynamics is investigated by two models. The first one is based on a multi-level, nested Erdos-Renyi random graph and individual decisions by agents according to Potts dynamics. This approach does not lead to a broad return distribution outside a parameter regime close to the original Cont-Bouchaud model. In the second model we introduce a limited hierarchical Erdos-Renyi graph, where merging of clusters at a level h+1 involves only clusters that have merged at the previous level h and we use the original Cont-Bouchaud agent dynamics on resulting clusters. The second model leads to a heavy-tail distribution of cluster sizes and relative price changes in a wide range of connection densities, not only close to the percolation threshold.

  11. Hierarchical model of matching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrycz, Witold; Roventa, Eugene

    1992-01-01

    The issue of matching two fuzzy sets becomes an essential design aspect of many algorithms including fuzzy controllers, pattern classifiers, knowledge-based systems, etc. This paper introduces a new model of matching. Its principal features involve the following: (1) matching carried out with respect to the grades of membership of fuzzy sets as well as some functionals defined on them (like energy, entropy,transom); (2) concepts of hierarchies in the matching model leading to a straightforward distinction between 'local' and 'global' levels of matching; and (3) a distributed character of the model realized as a logic-based neural network.

  12. Classifying hospitals as mortality outliers: logistic versus hierarchical logistic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrescu, Roxana; Bottle, Alex; Jarman, Brian; Aylin, Paul

    2014-05-01

    The use of hierarchical logistic regression for provider profiling has been recommended due to the clustering of patients within hospitals, but has some associated difficulties. We assess changes in hospital outlier status based on standard logistic versus hierarchical logistic modelling of mortality. The study population consisted of all patients admitted to acute, non-specialist hospitals in England between 2007 and 2011 with a primary diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, acute cerebrovascular disease or fracture of neck of femur or a primary procedure of coronary artery bypass graft or repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. We compared standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) from non-hierarchical models with SMRs from hierarchical models, without and with shrinkage estimates of the predicted probabilities (Model 1 and Model 2). The SMRs from standard logistic and hierarchical models were highly statistically significantly correlated (r > 0.91, p = 0.01). More outliers were recorded in the standard logistic regression than hierarchical modelling only when using shrinkage estimates (Model 2): 21 hospitals (out of a cumulative number of 565 pairs of hospitals under study) changed from a low outlier and 8 hospitals changed from a high outlier based on the logistic regression to a not-an-outlier based on shrinkage estimates. Both standard logistic and hierarchical modelling have identified nearly the same hospitals as mortality outliers. The choice of methodological approach should, however, also consider whether the modelling aim is judgment or improvement, as shrinkage may be more appropriate for the former than the latter.

  13. Hierarchical topic modeling with nested hierarchical Dirichlet process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi-qun DING; Shan-ping LI; Zhen ZHANG; Bin SHEN

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the statistical modeling of latent topic hierarchies in text corpora. The height of the topic tree is assumed as fixed, while the number of topics on each level as unknown a priori and to be inferred from data. Taking a nonparametric Bayesian approach to this problem, we propose a new probabilistic generative model based on the nested hierarchical Dirichlet process (nHDP) and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for the inference of the topic tree structure as welt as the word distribution of each topic and topic distribution of each document. Our theoretical analysis and experiment results show that this model can produce a more compact hierarchical topic structure and captures more free-grained topic relationships compared to the hierarchical latent Dirichlet allocation model.

  14. Multicollinearity in hierarchical linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Han; Jiang, Shanhe; Land, Kenneth C

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates an ill-posed problem (multicollinearity) in Hierarchical Linear Models from both the data and the model perspectives. We propose an intuitive, effective approach to diagnosing the presence of multicollinearity and its remedies in this class of models. A simulation study demonstrates the impacts of multicollinearity on coefficient estimates, associated standard errors, and variance components at various levels of multicollinearity for finite sample sizes typical in social science studies. We further investigate the role multicollinearity plays at each level for estimation of coefficient parameters in terms of shrinkage. Based on these analyses, we recommend a top-down method for assessing multicollinearity in HLMs that first examines the contextual predictors (Level-2 in a two-level model) and then the individual predictors (Level-1) and uses the results for data collection, research problem redefinition, model re-specification, variable selection and estimation of a final model.

  15. Prospects of implant with locking plate in fixation of subtrochanteric fracture: experimental demonstration of its potential benefits on synthetic femur model with supportive hierarchical nonlinear hyperelastic finite element analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latifi Mohammed

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Effective fixation of fracture requires careful selection of a suitable implant to provide stability and durability. Implant with a feature of locking plate (LP has been used widely for treating distal fractures in femur because of its favourable clinical outcome, but its potential in fixing proximal fractures in the subtrochancteric region has yet to be explored. Therefore, this comparative study was undertaken to demonstrate the merits of the LP implant in treating the subtrochancteric fracture by comparing its performance limits against those obtained with the more traditional implants; angle blade plate (ABP and dynamic condylar screw plate (DCSP. Materials and Methods Nine standard composite femurs were acquired, divided into three groups and fixed with LP (n = 3, ABP (n = 3 and DCSP (n = 3. The fracture was modeled by a 20 mm gap created at the subtrochanteric region to experimentally study the biomechanical response of each implant under both static and dynamic axial loading paradigms. To confirm the experimental findings and to understand the critical interactions at the boundaries, the synthetic femur/implant systems were numerically analyzed by constructing hierarchical finite element models with nonlinear hyperelastic properties. The predictions from the analyses were then compared against the experimental measurements to demonstrate the validity of each numeric model, and to characterize the internal load distribution in the femur and load bearing properties of each implant. Results The average measurements indicated that the constructs with ABP, DCPS and LP respectively had overall stiffness values of 70.9, 110.2 and 131.4 N/mm, and exhibited reversible deformations of 12.4, 4.9 and 4.1 mm when the applied dynamic load was 400 N and plastic deformations of 11.3, 2.4 and 1.4 mm when the load was 1000 N. The corresponding peak cyclic loads to failure were 1100, 1167 and 1600 N. The errors

  16. TAP Casing and Sliding Multi-level Hierarchical Fracturing Completion Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Lei; Peng Zhigang; Yu Jinling; Xu Xin

    2012-01-01

    Staged fracturing technology of horizontal well is an effective means to improve the single well production of unconvcntional reservoirs with low permeability and low porosity. The selection of staged fracturing process, downhole plugging tool and fracturing sliding sleeve tool is lhc key to this technology. According to different rcscrw)irs, there are different fi'acturing techniques. TAP casing and sleeve hierarchical fracturing technique is for the development of low permeability reservoir, low pressure, low production and multilayer reservoir.

  17. A Model of Hierarchical Key Assignment Scheme

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Zhigang; ZHAO Jing; XU Maozhi

    2006-01-01

    A model of the hierarchical key assignment scheme is approached in this paper, which can be used with any cryptography algorithm. Besides, the optimal dynamic control property of a hierarchical key assignment scheme will be defined in this paper. Also, our scheme model will meet this property.

  18. HIERARCHICAL OPTIMIZATION MODEL ON GEONETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zha

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In existing construction experience of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI, GeoNetwork, as the geographical information integrated solution, is an effective way of building SDI. During GeoNetwork serving as an internet application, several shortcomings are exposed. The first one is that the time consuming of data loading has been considerately increasing with the growth of metadata count. Consequently, the efficiency of query and search service becomes lower. Another problem is that stability and robustness are both ruined since huge amount of metadata. The final flaw is that the requirements of multi-user concurrent accessing based on massive data are not effectively satisfied on the internet. A novel approach, Hierarchical Optimization Model (HOM, is presented to solve the incapability of GeoNetwork working with massive data in this paper. HOM optimizes the GeoNetwork from these aspects: internal procedure, external deployment strategies, etc. This model builds an efficient index for accessing huge metadata and supporting concurrent processes. In this way, the services based on GeoNetwork can maintain stable while running massive metadata. As an experiment, we deployed more than 30 GeoNetwork nodes, and harvest nearly 1.1 million metadata. From the contrast between the HOM-improved software and the original one, the model makes indexing and retrieval processes more quickly and keeps the speed stable on metadata amount increasing. It also shows stable on multi-user concurrent accessing to system services, the experiment achieved good results and proved that our optimization model is efficient and reliable.

  19. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

    2003-01-01

    Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

  20. DEM Particle Fracture Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Boning [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Herbold, Eric B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Homel, Michael A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Regueiro, Richard A. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-12-01

    An adaptive particle fracture model in poly-ellipsoidal Discrete Element Method is developed. The poly-ellipsoidal particle will break into several sub-poly-ellipsoids by Hoek-Brown fracture criterion based on continuum stress and the maximum tensile stress in contacts. Also Weibull theory is introduced to consider the statistics and size effects on particle strength. Finally, high strain-rate split Hopkinson pressure bar experiment of silica sand is simulated using this newly developed model. Comparisons with experiments show that our particle fracture model can capture the mechanical behavior of this experiment very well, both in stress-strain response and particle size redistribution. The effects of density and packings o the samples are also studied in numerical examples.

  1. A Model for Slicing JAVA Programs Hierarchically

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bi-Xin Li; Xiao-Cong Fan; Jun Pang; Jian-Jun Zhao

    2004-01-01

    Program slicing can be effectively used to debug, test, analyze, understand and maintain objectoriented software. In this paper, a new slicing model is proposed to slice Java programs based on their inherent hierarchical feature. The main idea of hierarchical slicing is to slice programs in a stepwise way, from package level, to class level, method level, and finally up to statement level. The stepwise slicing algorithm and the related graph reachability algorithms are presented, the architecture of the Java program Analyzing Tool (JATO) based on hierarchical slicing model is provided, the applications and a small case study are also discussed.

  2. When to Use Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Veronika Huta

    2014-01-01

    Previous publications on hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) have provided guidance on how to perform the analysis, yet there is relatively little information on two questions that arise even before analysis...

  3. An introduction to hierarchical linear modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woltman, Heather; Feldstain, Andrea; MacKay, J. Christine; Rocchi, Meredith

    2012-01-01

    This tutorial aims to introduce Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM). A simple explanation of HLM is provided that describes when to use this statistical technique and identifies key factors to consider before conducting this analysis...

  4. Conservation Laws in the Hierarchical Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beijeren, H. van; Gallavotti, G.; Knops, H.

    1974-01-01

    An exposition of the renormalization-group equations for the hierarchical model is given. Attention is drawn to some properties of the spin distribution functions which are conserved under the action of the renormalization group.

  5. Fracture design modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crichlow, H.B.; Crichlow, H.B. (ed.)

    1980-02-07

    A design tool is discussed whereby the various components that enter the design process of a hydraulic fracturing job are combined to provide a realistic appraisal of a stimulation job in the field. An interactive computer model is used to solve the problem numerically to obtain the effects of various parameters on the overall behavior of the system.

  6. Classification using Hierarchical Naive Bayes models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langseth, Helge; Dyhre Nielsen, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Classification problems have a long history in the machine learning literature. One of the simplest, and yet most consistently well-performing set of classifiers is the Naïve Bayes models. However, an inherent problem with these classifiers is the assumption that all attributes used to describe...... an instance are conditionally independent given the class of that instance. When this assumption is violated (which is often the case in practice) it can reduce classification accuracy due to “information double-counting” and interaction omission. In this paper we focus on a relatively new set of models......, termed Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models. Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models extend the modeling flexibility of Naïve Bayes models by introducing latent variables to relax some of the independence statements in these models. We propose a simple algorithm for learning Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models...

  7. Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciortea, E. M.

    2015-11-01

    The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

  8. Semiparametric Quantile Modelling of Hierarchical Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mao Zai TIAN; Man Lai TANG; Ping Shing CHAN

    2009-01-01

    The classic hierarchical linear model formulation provides a considerable flexibility for modelling the random effects structure and a powerful tool for analyzing nested data that arise in various areas such as biology, economics and education. However, it assumes the within-group errors to be independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and models at all levels to be linear. Most importantly, traditional hierarchical models (just like other ordinary mean regression methods) cannot characterize the entire conditional distribution of a dependent variable given a set of covariates and fail to yield robust estimators. In this article, we relax the aforementioned and normality assumptions, and develop a so-called Hierarchical Semiparametric Quantile Regression Models in which the within-group errors could be heteroscedastic and models at some levels are allowed to be nonparametric. We present the ideas with a 2-level model. The level-l model is specified as a nonparametric model whereas level-2 model is set as a parametric model. Under the proposed semiparametric setting the vector of partial derivatives of the nonparametric function in level-1 becomes the response variable vector in level 2. The proposed method allows us to model the fixed effects in the innermost level (i.e., level 2) as a function of the covariates instead of a constant effect. We outline some mild regularity conditions required for convergence and asymptotic normality for our estimators. We illustrate our methodology with a real hierarchical data set from a laboratory study and some simulation studies.

  9. Hierarchical linear regression models for conditional quantiles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN Maozai; CHEN Gemai

    2006-01-01

    The quantile regression has several useful features and therefore is gradually developing into a comprehensive approach to the statistical analysis of linear and nonlinear response models,but it cannot deal effectively with the data with a hierarchical structure.In practice,the existence of such data hierarchies is neither accidental nor ignorable,it is a common phenomenon.To ignore this hierarchical data structure risks overlooking the importance of group effects,and may also render many of the traditional statistical analysis techniques used for studying data relationships invalid.On the other hand,the hierarchical models take a hierarchical data structure into account and have also many applications in statistics,ranging from overdispersion to constructing min-max estimators.However,the hierarchical models are virtually the mean regression,therefore,they cannot be used to characterize the entire conditional distribution of a dependent variable given high-dimensional covariates.Furthermore,the estimated coefficient vector (marginal effects)is sensitive to an outlier observation on the dependent variable.In this article,a new approach,which is based on the Gauss-Seidel iteration and taking a full advantage of the quantile regression and hierarchical models,is developed.On the theoretical front,we also consider the asymptotic properties of the new method,obtaining the simple conditions for an n1/2-convergence and an asymptotic normality.We also illustrate the use of the technique with the real educational data which is hierarchical and how the results can be explained.

  10. Clinical fracture risk evaluated by hierarchical agglomerative clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Christian; Eiken, P; Vestergaard, P

    2017-01-01

    profiles. INTRODUCTION: The purposes of this study were to establish and quantify patient clusters of high, average and low fracture risk using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. METHODS: Regional and national Danish patient data on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, medication...... containing less than 250 subjects. Clusters were identified as high, average or low fracture risk based on bone mineral density (BMD) characteristics. Cluster-based descriptive statistics and relative Z-scores for variable means were computed. RESULTS: Ten thousand seven hundred seventy-five women were...... as low fracture risk with high to very high BMD. A mean age of 60 years was the earliest that allowed for separation of high-risk clusters. DXA scan results could identify high-risk subjects with different antiresorptive treatment compliance levels based on similarities and differences in lumbar spine...

  11. Hierarchical models and chaotic spin glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berker, A. Nihat; McKay, Susan R.

    1984-09-01

    Renormalization-group studies in position space have led to the discovery of hierarchical models which are exactly solvable, exhibiting nonclassical critical behavior at finite temperature. Position-space renormalization-group approximations that had been widely and successfully used are in fact alternatively applicable as exact solutions of hierarchical models, this realizability guaranteeing important physical requirements. For example, a hierarchized version of the Sierpiriski gasket is presented, corresponding to a renormalization-group approximation which has quantitatively yielded the multicritical phase diagrams of submonolayers on graphite. Hierarchical models are now being studied directly as a testing ground for new concepts. For example, with the introduction of frustration, chaotic renormalization-group trajectories were obtained for the first time. Thus, strong and weak correlations are randomly intermingled at successive length scales, and a new microscopic picture and mechanism for a spin glass emerges. An upper critical dimension occurs via a boundary crisis mechanism in cluster-hierarchical variants developed to have well-behaved susceptibilities.

  12. Hierarchic Models of Turbulence, Superfluidity and Superconductivity

    CERN Document Server

    Kaivarainen, A

    2000-01-01

    New models of Turbulence, Superfluidity and Superconductivity, based on new Hierarchic theory, general for liquids and solids (physics/0102086), have been proposed. CONTENTS: 1 Turbulence. General description; 2 Mesoscopic mechanism of turbulence; 3 Superfluidity. General description; 4 Mesoscopic scenario of fluidity; 5 Superfluidity as a hierarchic self-organization process; 6 Superfluidity in 3He; 7 Superconductivity: General properties of metals and semiconductors; Plasma oscillations; Cyclotron resonance; Electroconductivity; 8. Microscopic theory of superconductivity (BCS); 9. Mesoscopic scenario of superconductivity: Interpretation of experimental data in the framework of mesoscopic model of superconductivity.

  13. Strategic games on a hierarchical network model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Among complex network models, the hierarchical network model is the one most close to such real networks as world trade web, metabolic network, WWW, actor network, and so on. It has not only the property of power-law degree distribution, but growth based on growth and preferential attachment, showing the scale-free degree distribution property. In this paper, we study the evolution of cooperation on a hierarchical network model, adopting the prisoner's dilemma (PD) game and snowdrift game (SG) as metaphors of the interplay between connected nodes. BA model provides a unifying framework for the emergence of cooperation. But interestingly, we found that on hierarchical model, there is no sign of cooperation for PD game, while the frequency of cooperation decreases as the common benefit decreases for SG. By comparing the scaling clustering coefficient properties of the hierarchical network model with that of BA model, we found that the former amplifies the effect of hubs. Considering different performances of PD game and SG on complex network, we also found that common benefit leads to cooperation in the evolution. Thus our study may shed light on the emergence of cooperation in both natural and social environments.

  14. Continuum damage modeling and simulation of hierarchical dental enamel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Songyun; Scheider, Ingo; Bargmann, Swantje

    2016-05-01

    Dental enamel exhibits high fracture toughness and stiffness due to a complex hierarchical and graded microstructure, optimally organized from nano- to macro-scale. In this study, a 3D representative volume element (RVE) model is adopted to study the deformation and damage behavior of the fibrous microstructure. A continuum damage mechanics model coupled to hyperelasticity is developed for modeling the initiation and evolution of damage in the mineral fibers as well as protein matrix. Moreover, debonding of the interface between mineral fiber and protein is captured by employing a cohesive zone model. The dependence of the failure mechanism on the aspect ratio of the mineral fibers is investigated. In addition, the effect of the interface strength on the damage behavior is studied with respect to geometric features of enamel. Further, the effect of an initial flaw on the overall mechanical properties is analyzed to understand the superior damage tolerance of dental enamel. The simulation results are validated by comparison to experimental data from micro-cantilever beam testing at two hierarchical levels. The transition of the failure mechanism at different hierarchical levels is also well reproduced in the simulations.

  15. Hierarchical Context Modeling for Video Event Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyang; Ji, Qiang

    2016-10-11

    Current video event recognition research remains largely target-centered. For real-world surveillance videos, targetcentered event recognition faces great challenges due to large intra-class target variation, limited image resolution, and poor detection and tracking results. To mitigate these challenges, we introduced a context-augmented video event recognition approach. Specifically, we explicitly capture different types of contexts from three levels including image level, semantic level, and prior level. At the image level, we introduce two types of contextual features including the appearance context features and interaction context features to capture the appearance of context objects and their interactions with the target objects. At the semantic level, we propose a deep model based on deep Boltzmann machine to learn event object representations and their interactions. At the prior level, we utilize two types of prior-level contexts including scene priming and dynamic cueing. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical context model that systematically integrates the contextual information at different levels. Through the hierarchical context model, contexts at different levels jointly contribute to the event recognition. We evaluate the hierarchical context model for event recognition on benchmark surveillance video datasets. Results show that incorporating contexts in each level can improve event recognition performance, and jointly integrating three levels of contexts through our hierarchical model achieves the best performance.

  16. Modelling of Specimen Fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-23

    the plate center. An end load of 1.0 MPa was applied. 1 2 3 Modelling of Specimen Fracture – Final Report 11 TR-13-47 Figure 2.5: Crack Geometry Figure...Christopher Bayley DRDC Atlantic Dockyard Laboratory Pacific CFB Esquimalt, Building 199 PO Box 17000, Station Forces Victoria, British Columbia Canada...q The weighting function, q , can be any arbitrary function within the J-integral domain, and must be zero on the domain boundary . An easy function

  17. Managing Clustered Data Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warne, Russell T.; Li, Yan; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Condie, Rachel; Diep, Cassandra S.; Murano, Peter S.

    2012-01-01

    Researchers in nutrition research often use cluster or multistage sampling to gather participants for their studies. These sampling methods often produce violations of the assumption of data independence that most traditional statistics share. Hierarchical linear modeling is a statistical method that can overcome violations of the independence…

  18. Managing Clustered Data Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warne, Russell T.; Li, Yan; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Condie, Rachel; Diep, Cassandra S.; Murano, Peter S.

    2012-01-01

    Researchers in nutrition research often use cluster or multistage sampling to gather participants for their studies. These sampling methods often produce violations of the assumption of data independence that most traditional statistics share. Hierarchical linear modeling is a statistical method that can overcome violations of the independence…

  19. The Infinite Hierarchical Factor Regression Model

    CERN Document Server

    Rai, Piyush

    2009-01-01

    We propose a nonparametric Bayesian factor regression model that accounts for uncertainty in the number of factors, and the relationship between factors. To accomplish this, we propose a sparse variant of the Indian Buffet Process and couple this with a hierarchical model over factors, based on Kingman's coalescent. We apply this model to two problems (factor analysis and factor regression) in gene-expression data analysis.

  20. Hierarchical models in the brain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Friston

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a general model that subsumes many parametric models for continuous data. The model comprises hidden layers of state-space or dynamic causal models, arranged so that the output of one provides input to another. The ensuing hierarchy furnishes a model for many types of data, of arbitrary complexity. Special cases range from the general linear model for static data to generalised convolution models, with system noise, for nonlinear time-series analysis. Crucially, all of these models can be inverted using exactly the same scheme, namely, dynamic expectation maximization. This means that a single model and optimisation scheme can be used to invert a wide range of models. We present the model and a brief review of its inversion to disclose the relationships among, apparently, diverse generative models of empirical data. We then show that this inversion can be formulated as a simple neural network and may provide a useful metaphor for inference and learning in the brain.

  1. Hierarchical model of vulnerabilities for emotional disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Peter J; Mehta, Paras D

    2007-01-01

    Clark and Watson's (1991) tripartite model of anxiety and depression has had a dramatic impact on our understanding of the dispositional variables underlying emotional disorders. More recently, calls have been made to examine not simply the influence of negative affectivity (NA) but also mediating factors that might better explain how NA influences anxious and depressive syndromes (e.g. Taylor, 1998; Watson, 2005). Extending preliminary projects, this study evaluated two hierarchical models of NA, mediating factors of anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty, and specific emotional manifestations. Data provided a very good fit to a model elaborated from preliminary studies, lending further support to hierarchical models of emotional vulnerabilities. Implications for classification and diagnosis are discussed.

  2. Bayesian hierarchical modeling of drug stability data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Zhong, Jinglin; Nie, Lei

    2008-06-15

    Stability data are commonly analyzed using linear fixed or random effect model. The linear fixed effect model does not take into account the batch-to-batch variation, whereas the random effect model may suffer from the unreliable shelf-life estimates due to small sample size. Moreover, both methods do not utilize any prior information that might have been available. In this article, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical approach to modeling drug stability data. Under this hierarchical structure, we first use Bayes factor to test the poolability of batches. Given the decision on poolability of batches, we then estimate the shelf-life that applies to all batches. The approach is illustrated with two example data sets and its performance is compared in simulation studies with that of the commonly used frequentist methods. (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Hierarchical Climate Modeling for Cosmoclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuchi, Wataru

    2010-05-01

    It has been reported that there are correlations among solar activity, amount of galactic cosmic ray, amount of low clouds and surface air temperature (Svensmark and Friis-Chistensen, 1997). These correlations seem to exist for current climate change, Little Ice Age, and geological time scale climate changes. Some hypothetic mechanisms have been argued for the correlations but it still needs quantitative studies to understand the mechanism. In order to decrease uncertainties, only first principles or laws very close to first principles should be used. Our group at Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology has started modeling effort to tackle this problem. We are constructing models from galactic cosmic ray inducing ionization, to aerosol formation, to cloud formation, to global climate. In this talk, we introduce our modeling activities. For aerosol formation, we use molecular dynamics. For cloud formation, we use a new cloud microphysics model called "super droplet method". We also try to couple a nonhydrostatic atmospheric regional cloud resolving model and a hydrostatic atmospheric general circulation model.

  4. Hierarchical Boltzmann simulations and model error estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrilhon, Manuel; Sarna, Neeraj

    2017-08-01

    A hierarchical simulation approach for Boltzmann's equation should provide a single numerical framework in which a coarse representation can be used to compute gas flows as accurately and efficiently as in computational fluid dynamics, but a subsequent refinement allows to successively improve the result to the complete Boltzmann result. We use Hermite discretization, or moment equations, for the steady linearized Boltzmann equation for a proof-of-concept of such a framework. All representations of the hierarchy are rotationally invariant and the numerical method is formulated on fully unstructured triangular and quadrilateral meshes using a implicit discontinuous Galerkin formulation. We demonstrate the performance of the numerical method on model problems which in particular highlights the relevance of stability of boundary conditions on curved domains. The hierarchical nature of the method allows also to provide model error estimates by comparing subsequent representations. We present various model errors for a flow through a curved channel with obstacles.

  5. Hierarchical mixture models for assessing fingerprint individuality

    OpenAIRE

    Dass, Sarat C.; Li, Mingfei

    2009-01-01

    The study of fingerprint individuality aims to determine to what extent a fingerprint uniquely identifies an individual. Recent court cases have highlighted the need for measures of fingerprint individuality when a person is identified based on fingerprint evidence. The main challenge in studies of fingerprint individuality is to adequately capture the variability of fingerprint features in a population. In this paper hierarchical mixture models are introduced to infer the extent of individua...

  6. Semantic Image Segmentation with Contextual Hierarchical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyedhosseini, Mojtaba; Tasdizen, Tolga

    2016-05-01

    Semantic segmentation is the problem of assigning an object label to each pixel. It unifies the image segmentation and object recognition problems. The importance of using contextual information in semantic segmentation frameworks has been widely realized in the field. We propose a contextual framework, called contextual hierarchical model (CHM), which learns contextual information in a hierarchical framework for semantic segmentation. At each level of the hierarchy, a classifier is trained based on downsampled input images and outputs of previous levels. Our model then incorporates the resulting multi-resolution contextual information into a classifier to segment the input image at original resolution. This training strategy allows for optimization of a joint posterior probability at multiple resolutions through the hierarchy. Contextual hierarchical model is purely based on the input image patches and does not make use of any fragments or shape examples. Hence, it is applicable to a variety of problems such as object segmentation and edge detection. We demonstrate that CHM performs at par with state-of-the-art on Stanford background and Weizmann horse datasets. It also outperforms state-of-the-art edge detection methods on NYU depth dataset and achieves state-of-the-art on Berkeley segmentation dataset (BSDS 500).

  7. Magnetic susceptibilities of cluster-hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Susan R.; Berker, A. Nihat

    1984-02-01

    The exact magnetic susceptibilities of hierarchical models are calculated near and away from criticality, in both the ordered and disordered phases. The mechanism and phenomenology are discussed for models with susceptibilities that are physically sensible, e.g., nondivergent away from criticality. Such models are found based upon the Niemeijer-van Leeuwen cluster renormalization. A recursion-matrix method is presented for the renormalization-group evaluation of response functions. Diagonalization of this matrix at fixed points provides simple criteria for well-behaved densities and response functions.

  8. Three Layer Hierarchical Model for Chord

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waqas A. Imtiaz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Increasing popularity of decentralized Peer-to-Peer (P2P architecture emphasizes on the need to come across an overlay structure that can provide efficient content discovery mechanism, accommodate high churn rate and adapt to failures in the presence of heterogeneity among the peers. Traditional p2p systems incorporate distributed client-server communication, which finds the peer efficiently that store a desires data item, with minimum delay and reduced overhead. However traditional models are not able to solve the problems relating scalability and high churn rates. Hierarchical model were introduced to provide better fault isolation, effective bandwidth utilization, a superior adaptation to the underlying physical network and a reduction of the lookup path length as additional advantages. It is more efficient and easier to manage than traditional p2p networks. This paper discusses a further step in p2p hierarchy via 3-layers hierarchical model with distributed database architecture in different layer, each of which is connected through its root. The peers are divided into three categories according to their physical stability and strength. They are Ultra Super-peer, Super-peer and Ordinary Peer and we assign these peers to first, second and third level of hierarchy respectively. Peers in a group in lower layer have their own local database which hold as associated super-peer in middle layer and access the database among the peers through user queries. In our 3-layer hierarchical model for DHT algorithms, we used an advanced Chord algorithm with optimized finger table which can remove the redundant entry in the finger table in upper layer that influences the system to reduce the lookup latency. Our research work finally resulted that our model really provides faster search since the network lookup latency is decreased by reducing the number of hops. The peers in such network then can contribute with improve functionality and can perform well in

  9. An introduction to hierarchical linear modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Woltman

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This tutorial aims to introduce Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM. A simple explanation of HLM is provided that describes when to use this statistical technique and identifies key factors to consider before conducting this analysis. The first section of the tutorial defines HLM, clarifies its purpose, and states its advantages. The second section explains the mathematical theory, equations, and conditions underlying HLM. HLM hypothesis testing is performed in the third section. Finally, the fourth section provides a practical example of running HLM, with which readers can follow along. Throughout this tutorial, emphasis is placed on providing a straightforward overview of the basic principles of HLM.

  10. Universality: Accurate Checks in Dyson's Hierarchical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godina, J. J.; Meurice, Y.; Oktay, M. B.

    2003-06-01

    In this talk we present high-accuracy calculations of the susceptibility near βc for Dyson's hierarchical model in D = 3. Using linear fitting, we estimate the leading (γ) and subleading (Δ) exponents. Independent estimates are obtained by calculating the first two eigenvalues of the linearized renormalization group transformation. We found γ = 1.29914073 ± 10 -8 and, Δ = 0.4259469 ± 10-7 independently of the choice of local integration measure (Ising or Landau-Ginzburg). After a suitable rescaling, the approximate fixed points for a large class of local measure coincide accurately with a fixed point constructed by Koch and Wittwer.

  11. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Crowd Emotions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urizar, Oscar J.; Baig, Mirza S.; Barakova, Emilia I.; Regazzoni, Carlo S.; Marcenaro, Lucio; Rauterberg, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of emotions is an essential aspect in developing intelligent systems intended for crowded environments. However, emotion estimation in crowds remains a challenging problem due to the complexity in which human emotions are manifested and the capability of a system to perceive them in such conditions. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model to learn in unsupervised manner the behavior of individuals and of the crowd as a single entity, and explore the relation between behavior and emotions to infer emotional states. Information about the motion patterns of individuals are described using a self-organizing map, and a hierarchical Bayesian network builds probabilistic models to identify behaviors and infer the emotional state of individuals and the crowd. This model is trained and tested using data produced from simulated scenarios that resemble real-life environments. The conducted experiments tested the efficiency of our method to learn, detect and associate behaviors with emotional states yielding accuracy levels of 74% for individuals and 81% for the crowd, similar in performance with existing methods for pedestrian behavior detection but with novel concepts regarding the analysis of crowds. PMID:27458366

  12. When to Use Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Huta

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous publications on hierarchical linear modeling (HLM have provided guidance on how to perform the analysis, yet there is relatively little information on two questions that arise even before analysis: Does HLM apply to one’s data and research question? And if it does apply, how does one choose between HLM and other methods sometimes used in these circumstances, including multiple regression, repeated-measures or mixed ANOVA, and structural equation modeling or path analysis? The purpose of this tutorial is to briefly introduce HLM and then to review some of the considerations that are helpful in answering these questions, including the nature of the data, the model to be tested, and the information desired on the output. Some examples of how the same analysis could be performed in HLM, repeated-measures or mixed ANOVA, and structural equation modeling or path analysis are also provided. .

  13. A hierarchical model of temporal perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöppel, E

    1997-05-01

    Temporal perception comprises subjective phenomena such as simultaneity, successiveness, temporal order, subjective present, temporal continuity and subjective duration. These elementary temporal experiences are hierarchically related to each other. Functional system states with a duration of 30 ms are implemented by neuronal oscillations and they provide a mechanism to define successiveness. These system states are also responsible for the identification of basic events. For a sequential representation of several events time tags are allocated, resulting in an ordinal representation of such events. A mechanism of temporal integration binds successive events into perceptual units of 3 s duration. Such temporal integration, which is automatic and presemantic, is also operative in movement control and other cognitive activities. Because of the omnipresence of this integration mechanism it is used for a pragmatic definition of the subjective present. Temporal continuity is the result of a semantic connection between successive integration intervals. Subjective duration is known to depend on mental load and attentional demand, high load resulting in long time estimates. In the hierarchical model proposed, system states of 30 ms and integration intervals of 3 s, together with a memory store, provide an explanatory neuro-cognitive machinery for differential subjective duration.

  14. Antiferromagnetic Ising Model in Hierarchical Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xiang; Boettcher, Stefan

    2015-03-01

    The Ising antiferromagnet is a convenient model of glassy dynamics. It can introduce geometric frustrations and may give rise to a spin glass phase and glassy relaxation at low temperatures [ 1 ] . We apply the antiferromagnetic Ising model to 3 hierarchical networks which share features of both small world networks and regular lattices. Their recursive and fixed structures make them suitable for exact renormalization group analysis as well as numerical simulations. We first explore the dynamical behaviors using simulated annealing and discover an extremely slow relaxation at low temperatures. Then we employ the Wang-Landau algorithm to investigate the energy landscape and the corresponding equilibrium behaviors for different system sizes. Besides the Monte Carlo methods, renormalization group [ 2 ] is used to study the equilibrium properties in the thermodynamic limit and to compare with the results from simulated annealing and Wang-Landau sampling. Supported through NSF Grant DMR-1207431.

  15. Dissecting magnetar variability with Bayesian hierarchical models

    CERN Document Server

    Huppenkothen, D; Hogg, D W; Murray, I; Frean, M; Elenbaas, C; Watts, A L; Levin, Y; van der Horst, A J; Kouveliotou, C

    2015-01-01

    Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behaviour, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favoured models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here, we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture afte...

  16. Hierarchical Data Structures, Institutional Research, and Multilevel Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A.; Reed, Sandra J.

    2012-01-01

    Multilevel modeling (MLM), also referred to as hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) or mixed models, provides a powerful analytical framework through which to study colleges and universities and their impact on students. Due to the natural hierarchical structure of data obtained from students or faculty in colleges and universities, MLM offers many…

  17. Entrepreneurial intention modeling using hierarchical multiple regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Jeger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to identify the contribution of effectuation dimensions to the predictive power of the entrepreneurial intention model over and above that which can be accounted for by other predictors selected and confirmed in previous studies. As is often the case in social and behavioral studies, some variables are likely to be highly correlated with each other. Therefore, the relative amount of variance in the criterion variable explained by each of the predictors depends on several factors such as the order of variable entry and sample specifics. The results show the modest predictive power of two dimensions of effectuation prior to the introduction of the theory of planned behavior elements. The article highlights the main advantages of applying hierarchical regression in social sciences as well as in the specific context of entrepreneurial intention formation, and addresses some of the potential pitfalls that this type of analysis entails.

  18. Hydraulic fracture propagation modeling and data-based fracture identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jing

    Successful shale gas and tight oil production is enabled by the engineering innovation of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulically induced fractures will most likely deviate from the bi-wing planar pattern and generate complex fracture networks due to mechanical interactions and reservoir heterogeneity, both of which render the conventional fracture simulators insufficient to characterize the fractured reservoir. Moreover, in reservoirs with ultra-low permeability, the natural fractures are widely distributed, which will result in hydraulic fractures branching and merging at the interface and consequently lead to the creation of more complex fracture networks. Thus, developing a reliable hydraulic fracturing simulator, including both mechanical interaction and fluid flow, is critical in maximizing hydrocarbon recovery and optimizing fracture/well design and completion strategy in multistage horizontal wells. A novel fully coupled reservoir flow and geomechanics model based on the dual-lattice system is developed to simulate multiple nonplanar fractures' propagation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs with or without pre-existing natural fractures. Initiation, growth, and coalescence of the microcracks will lead to the generation of macroscopic fractures, which is explicitly mimicked by failure and removal of bonds between particles from the discrete element network. This physics-based modeling approach leads to realistic fracture patterns without using the empirical rock failure and fracture propagation criteria required in conventional continuum methods. Based on this model, a sensitivity study is performed to investigate the effects of perforation spacing, in-situ stress anisotropy, rock properties (Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and compressive strength), fluid properties, and natural fracture properties on hydraulic fracture propagation. In addition, since reservoirs are buried thousands of feet below the surface, the

  19. Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooten, Mevin B; Wikle, Christopher K; Dorazio, Robert M; Royle, J Andrew

    2007-06-01

    The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing.

  20. Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

  1. Higher-Order Item Response Models for Hierarchical Latent Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung; Chen, Po-Hsi; Su, Chi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Many latent traits in the human sciences have a hierarchical structure. This study aimed to develop a new class of higher order item response theory models for hierarchical latent traits that are flexible in accommodating both dichotomous and polytomous items, to estimate both item and person parameters jointly, to allow users to specify…

  2. On the renormalization group transformation for scalar hierarchical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, H. (Texas Univ., Austin (USA). Dept. of Mathematics); Wittwer, P. (Geneva Univ. (Switzerland). Dept. de Physique Theorique)

    1991-06-01

    We give a new proof for the existence of a non-Gaussian hierarchical renormalization group fixed point, using what could be called a beta-function for this problem. We also discuss the asymptotic behavior of this fixed point, and the connection between the hierarchical models of Dyson and Gallavotti. (orig.).

  3. Hierarchical Geometric Constraint Model for Parametric Feature Based Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高曙明; 彭群生

    1997-01-01

    A new geometric constraint model is described,which is hierarchical and suitable for parametric feature based modeling.In this model,different levels of geometric information are repesented to support various stages of a design process.An efficient approach to parametric feature based modeling is also presented,adopting the high level geometric constraint model.The low level geometric model such as B-reps can be derived automatically from the hig level geometric constraint model,enabling designers to perform their task of detailed design.

  4. What are hierarchical models and how do we analyze them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, Andy

    2016-01-01

    In this chapter we provide a basic definition of hierarchical models and introduce the two canonical hierarchical models in this book: site occupancy and N-mixture models. The former is a hierarchical extension of logistic regression and the latter is a hierarchical extension of Poisson regression. We introduce basic concepts of probability modeling and statistical inference including likelihood and Bayesian perspectives. We go through the mechanics of maximizing the likelihood and characterizing the posterior distribution by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We give a general perspective on topics such as model selection and assessment of model fit, although we demonstrate these topics in practice in later chapters (especially Chapters 5, 6, 7, and 10 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 10)

  5. Hierarchical Neural Regression Models for Customer Churn Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golshan Mohammadi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As customers are the main assets of each industry, customer churn prediction is becoming a major task for companies to remain in competition with competitors. In the literature, the better applicability and efficiency of hierarchical data mining techniques has been reported. This paper considers three hierarchical models by combining four different data mining techniques for churn prediction, which are backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANN, self-organizing maps (SOM, alpha-cut fuzzy c-means (α-FCM, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The hierarchical models are ANN + ANN + Cox, SOM + ANN + Cox, and α-FCM + ANN + Cox. In particular, the first component of the models aims to cluster data in two churner and nonchurner groups and also filter out unrepresentative data or outliers. Then, the clustered data as the outputs are used to assign customers to churner and nonchurner groups by the second technique. Finally, the correctly classified data are used to create Cox proportional hazards model. To evaluate the performance of the hierarchical models, an Iranian mobile dataset is considered. The experimental results show that the hierarchical models outperform the single Cox regression baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy, Types I and II errors, RMSE, and MAD metrics. In addition, the α-FCM + ANN + Cox model significantly performs better than the two other hierarchical models.

  6. Study of chaos based on a hierarchical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yagi, Masatoshi; Itoh, Sanae-I. [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics

    2001-12-01

    Study of chaos based on a hierarchical model is briefly reviewed. Here we categorize hierarchical model equations, i.e., (1) a model with a few degrees of freedom, e.g., the Lorenz model, (2) a model with intermediate degrees of freedom like a shell model, and (3) a model with many degrees of freedom such as a Navier-Stokes equation. We discuss the nature of chaos and turbulence described by these models via Lyapunov exponents. The interpretation of results observed in fundamental plasma experiments is also shown based on a shell model. (author)

  7. An Unsupervised Model for Exploring Hierarchical Semantics from Social Annotations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Mianwei; Bao, Shenghua; Wu, Xian; Yu, Yong

    This paper deals with the problem of exploring hierarchical semantics from social annotations. Recently, social annotation services have become more and more popular in Semantic Web. It allows users to arbitrarily annotate web resources, thus, largely lowers the barrier to cooperation. Furthermore, through providing abundant meta-data resources, social annotation might become a key to the development of Semantic Web. However, on the other hand, social annotation has its own apparent limitations, for instance, 1) ambiguity and synonym phenomena and 2) lack of hierarchical information. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised model to automatically derive hierarchical semantics from social annotations. Using a social bookmark service Del.icio.us as example, we demonstrate that the derived hierarchical semantics has the ability to compensate those shortcomings. We further apply our model on another data set from Flickr to testify our model's applicability on different environments. The experimental results demonstrate our model's efficiency.

  8. Fractal modeling of natural fracture networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferer, M.; Dean, B.; Mick, C.

    1995-06-01

    West Virginia University will implement procedures for a fractal analysis of fractures in reservoirs. This procedure will be applied to fracture networks in outcrops and to fractures intersecting horizontal boreholes. The parameters resulting from this analysis will be used to generate synthetic fracture networks with the same fractal characteristics as the real networks. Recovery from naturally fractured, tight-gas reservoirs is controlled by the fracture network. Reliable characterization of the actual fracture network in the reservoir is severely limited. The location and orientation of fractures intersecting the borehole can be determined, but the length of these fractures cannot be unambiguously determined. Because of the lack of detailed information about the actual fracture network, modeling methods must represent the porosity and permeability associated with the fracture network, as accurately as possible with very little a priori information. In the sections following, the authors will (1) present fractal analysis of the MWX site, using the box-counting procedure; (2) review evidence testing the fractal nature of fracture distributions and discuss the advantages of using the fractal analysis over a stochastic analysis; and (3) present an efficient algorithm for producing a self-similar fracture networks which mimic the real MWX outcrop fracture network.

  9. Partially decoupled modeling of hydraulic fracturing processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Settari, A.; Puchyr, P.J.; Bachman, R.C. (Simtech Consulting Services, Calgary (CA))

    1990-02-01

    A new method of partial decoupling of the problem of modeling a hydraulic fracture in a reservoir is described. According to the authors this approach has significant advantages over previous methods with fully coupled or completely uncoupled models. Better accuracy can be achieved in modeling the fracture propagation, and the new system is very efficient and versatile. Virtually any reservoir model can be used for predicting postfracture productivity. Examples of single- and multiphase applications for modeling fractured wells are discussed.

  10. Modeling the deformation behavior of nanocrystalline alloy with hierarchical microstructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Hongxi; Zhou, Jianqiu, E-mail: zhouj@njtech.edu.cn [Nanjing Tech University, Department of Mechanical Engineering (China); Zhao, Yonghao, E-mail: yhzhao@njust.edu.cn [Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanostructural Materials Research Center, School of Materials Science and Engineering (China)

    2016-02-15

    A mechanism-based plasticity model based on dislocation theory is developed to describe the mechanical behavior of the hierarchical nanocrystalline alloys. The stress–strain relationship is derived by invoking the impeding effect of the intra-granular solute clusters and the inter-granular nanostructures on the dislocation movements along the sliding path. We found that the interaction between dislocations and the hierarchical microstructures contributes to the strain hardening property and greatly influence the ductility of nanocrystalline metals. The analysis indicates that the proposed model can successfully describe the enhanced strength of the nanocrystalline hierarchical alloy. Moreover, the strain hardening rate is sensitive to the volume fraction of the hierarchical microstructures. The present model provides a new perspective to design the microstructures for optimizing the mechanical properties in nanostructural metals.

  11. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well.

  12. Hydraulic fracturing model based on the discrete fracture model and the generalized J integral

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z. Q.; Liu, Z. F.; Wang, X. H.; Zeng, B.

    2016-08-01

    The hydraulic fracturing technique is an effective stimulation for low permeability reservoirs. In fracturing models, one key point is to accurately calculate the flux across the fracture surface and the stress intensity factor. To achieve high precision, the discrete fracture model is recommended to calculate the flux. Using the generalized J integral, the present work obtains an accurate simulation of the stress intensity factor. Based on the above factors, an alternative hydraulic fracturing model is presented. Examples are included to demonstrate the reliability of the proposed model and its ability to model the fracture propagation. Subsequently, the model is used to describe the relationship between the geometry of the fracture and the fracturing equipment parameters. The numerical results indicate that the working pressure and the pump power will significantly influence the fracturing process.

  13. Modeling Bivariate Longitudinal Hormone Profiles by Hierarchical State Space Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ziyue; Cappola, Anne R; Crofford, Leslie J; Guo, Wensheng

    2014-01-01

    The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is crucial in coping with stress and maintaining homeostasis. Hormones produced by the HPA axis exhibit both complex univariate longitudinal profiles and complex relationships among different hormones. Consequently, modeling these multivariate longitudinal hormone profiles is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a bivariate hierarchical state space model, in which each hormone profile is modeled by a hierarchical state space model, with both population-average and subject-specific components. The bivariate model is constructed by concatenating the univariate models based on the hypothesized relationship. Because of the flexible framework of state space form, the resultant models not only can handle complex individual profiles, but also can incorporate complex relationships between two hormones, including both concurrent and feedback relationship. Estimation and inference are based on marginal likelihood and posterior means and variances. Computationally efficient Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used for implementation. Application of the proposed method to a study of chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia reveals that the relationships between adrenocorticotropic hormone and cortisol in the patient group are weaker than in healthy controls.

  14. Multi-scale modeling of inter-granular fracture in UO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chakraborty, Pritam [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Zhang, Yongfeng [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tonks, Michael R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Biner, S. Bulent [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-03-01

    A hierarchical multi-scale approach is pursued in this work to investigate the influence of porosity, pore and grain size on the intergranular brittle fracture in UO2. In this approach, molecular dynamics simulations are performed to obtain the fracture properties for different grain boundary types. A phase-field model is then utilized to perform intergranular fracture simulations of representative microstructures with different porosities, pore and grain sizes. In these simulations the grain boundary fracture properties obtained from molecular dynamics simulations are used. The responses from the phase-field fracture simulations are then fitted with a stress-based brittle fracture model usable at the engineering scale. This approach encapsulates three different length and time scales, and allows the development of microstructurally informed engineering scale model from properties evaluated at the atomistic scale.

  15. The Role of Prototype Learning in Hierarchical Models of Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomure, Michael David

    2014-01-01

    I conduct a study of learning in HMAX-like models, which are hierarchical models of visual processing in biological vision systems. Such models compute a new representation for an image based on the similarity of image sub-parts to a number of specific patterns, called prototypes. Despite being a central piece of the overall model, the issue of…

  16. Free-Energy Bounds for Hierarchical Spin Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellana, Michele; Barra, Adriano; Guerra, Francesco

    2014-04-01

    In this paper we study two non-mean-field (NMF) spin models built on a hierarchical lattice: the hierarchical Edward-Anderson model (HEA) of a spin glass, and Dyson's hierarchical model (DHM) of a ferromagnet. For the HEA, we prove the existence of the thermodynamic limit of the free energy and the replica-symmetry-breaking (RSB) free-energy bounds previously derived for the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model of a spin glass. These RSB mean-field bounds are exact only if the order-parameter fluctuations (OPF) vanish: given that such fluctuations are not negligible in NMF models, we develop a novel strategy to tackle part of OPF in hierarchical models. The method is based on absorbing part of OPF of a block of spins into an effective Hamiltonian of the underlying spin blocks. We illustrate this method for DHM and show that, compared to the mean-field bound for the free energy, it provides a tighter NMF bound, with a critical temperature closer to the exact one. To extend this method to the HEA model, a suitable generalization of Griffith's correlation inequalities for Ising ferromagnets is needed: since correlation inequalities for spin glasses are still an open topic, we leave the extension of this method to hierarchical spin glasses as a future perspective.

  17. Multiscale approach to description of deformation and fracture of brittle media with hierarchical porous structure on the basis of movable cellular automaton method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. G. Psakhie

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available An approach to multiscale description of deformation and fracture of brittle porous materials on the basis of movable cellular automaton method was proposed. The material characterized by pore size distribution function having two maxima was considered. The core of the proposed approach consists in finding the automaton effective response function by means of direct numerical simulation of representative volume of the porous material. A hierarchical two-scale model of mechanical behavior of ceramics under compression and shear loading was developed. Zirconia based ceramics with pore size greater than the average grain size was considered. At the first scale of the model only small pores (corresponding to the first maximum of the pore size distribution function were taking into account explicitly (by removing automata from the initial structure. The representative volume and effective elastic properties of the porous material at this scale were evaluated. At the second scale of the model, big pores were taking into account explicitly, the parameters of the matrix corresponded to the ones determined at the first scale. Simulation results showed that the proposed multiscale model allows qualitatively and quantitatively correct describing of deformation and fracture of brittle material with hierarchical porous structure.

  18. Modeling fracture porosity evolution in dolostone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Julia F. W.; Lander, Robert H.; Reed, Robert M.; Laubach, Stephen E.

    2010-09-01

    Opening-mode fractures in dolostones buried to depths of ˜1-5 km contain synkinematic dolomite cement, the amount and internal structure of which has a systematic relationship to fracture size. Narrow fractures (cement or cement with a crack-seal texture that indicates multiple incremental openings. Wider fractures can preserve considerable effective porosity, but anomalously thick dolomite cement bridges are commonly present in fractures that are otherwise lined with a thin veneer of cement. Dolomite bridges resemble quartz bridges that are common in fractured sandstones. We developed a geometric crystal growth model for synkinematic dolomite fracture fill in fractured dolostones, where periodic incremental fracture-opening events are introduced with concurrent cement growth. We assumed constant temperature and supersaturation with respect to dolomite. A key assumption in the model is that rapid dolomite accumulation within bridges is governed by high cement-growth rates on repeatedly broken grain surfaces during the process of crack seal. Slower cement-growth rates occur on euhedral crystals. This assumption is made on the basis of a comparison with quartz cement growth in fractured sandstones. Simulations with different fracture-opening rates mimic bridge and lining cement morphologies, including characteristic rhombic shapes of dolomite bridges.

  19. A hierarchical lattice spring model to simulate the mechanics of 2-D materials-based composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas eBrely

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In the field of engineering materials, strength and toughness are typically two mutually exclusive properties. Structural biological materials such as bone, tendon or dentin have resolved this conflict and show unprecedented damage tolerance, toughness and strength levels. The common feature of these materials is their hierarchical heterogeneous structure, which contributes to increased energy dissipation before failure occurring at different scale levels. These structural properties are the key to exceptional bioinspired material mechanical properties, in particular for nanocomposites. Here, we develop a numerical model in order to simulate the mechanisms involved in damage progression and energy dissipation at different size scales in nano- and macro-composites, which depend both on the heterogeneity of the material and on the type of hierarchical structure. Both these aspects have been incorporated into a 2-dimensional model based on a Lattice Spring Model, accounting for geometrical nonlinearities and including statistically-based fracture phenomena. The model has been validated by comparing numerical results to continuum and fracture mechanics results as well as finite elements simulations, and then employed to study how structural aspects impact on hierarchical composite material properties. Results obtained with the numerical code highlight the dependence of stress distributions on matrix properties and reinforcement dispersion, geometry and properties, and how failure of sacrificial elements is directly involved in the damage tolerance of the material. Thanks to the rapidly developing field of nanocomposite manufacture, it is already possible to artificially create materials with multi-scale hierarchical reinforcements. The developed code could be a valuable support in the design and optimization of these advanced materials, drawing inspiration and going beyond biological materials with exceptional mechanical properties.

  20. A hierarchical linear model for tree height prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicente J. Monleon

    2003-01-01

    Measuring tree height is a time-consuming process. Often, tree diameter is measured and height is estimated from a published regression model. Trees used to develop these models are clustered into stands, but this structure is ignored and independence is assumed. In this study, hierarchical linear models that account explicitly for the clustered structure of the data...

  1. Modelling hierarchical and modular complex networks: division and independence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D.-H.; Rodgers, G. J.; Kahng, B.; Kim, D.

    2005-06-01

    We introduce a growing network model which generates both modular and hierarchical structure in a self-organized way. To this end, we modify the Barabási-Albert model into the one evolving under the principles of division and independence as well as growth and preferential attachment (PA). A newly added vertex chooses one of the modules composed of existing vertices, and attaches edges to vertices belonging to that module following the PA rule. When the module size reaches a proper size, the module is divided into two, and a new module is created. The karate club network studied by Zachary is a simple version of the current model. We find that the model can reproduce both modular and hierarchical properties, characterized by the hierarchical clustering function of a vertex with degree k, C(k), being in good agreement with empirical measurements for real-world networks.

  2. Multiple comparisons in genetic association studies: a hierarchical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Nengjun; Xu, Shizhong; Lou, Xiang-Yang; Mallick, Himel

    2014-02-01

    Multiple comparisons or multiple testing has been viewed as a thorny issue in genetic association studies aiming to detect disease-associated genetic variants from a large number of genotyped variants. We alleviate the problem of multiple comparisons by proposing a hierarchical modeling approach that is fundamentally different from the existing methods. The proposed hierarchical models simultaneously fit as many variables as possible and shrink unimportant effects towards zero. Thus, the hierarchical models yield more efficient estimates of parameters than the traditional methods that analyze genetic variants separately, and also coherently address the multiple comparisons problem due to largely reducing the effective number of genetic effects and the number of statistically "significant" effects. We develop a method for computing the effective number of genetic effects in hierarchical generalized linear models, and propose a new adjustment for multiple comparisons, the hierarchical Bonferroni correction, based on the effective number of genetic effects. Our approach not only increases the power to detect disease-associated variants but also controls the Type I error. We illustrate and evaluate our method with real and simulated data sets from genetic association studies. The method has been implemented in our freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/).

  3. Modelling CO2 flow in naturally fractured geological media using MINC and multiple subregion upscaling procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatomir, Alexandru Bogdan A. C.; Flemisch, Bernd; Class, Holger; Helmig, Rainer; Sauter, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Geological storage of CO2 represents one viable solution to reduce greenhouse gas emission in the atmosphere. Potential leakage of CO2 storage can occur through networks of interconnected fractures. The geometrical complexity of these networks is often very high involving fractures occurring at various scales and having hierarchical structures. Such multiphase flow systems are usually hard to solve with a discrete fracture modelling (DFM) approach. Therefore, continuum fracture models assuming average properties are usually preferred. The multiple interacting continua (MINC) model is an extension of the classic double porosity model (Warren and Root, 1963) which accounts for the non-linear behaviour of the matrix-fracture interactions. For CO2 storage applications the transient representation of the inter-porosity two phase flow plays an important role. This study tests the accuracy and computational efficiency of the MINC method complemented with the multiple sub-region (MSR) upscaling procedure versus the DFM. The two phase flow MINC simulator is implemented in the free-open source numerical toolbox DuMux (www.dumux.org). The MSR (Gong et al., 2009) determines the inter-porosity terms by solving simplified local single-phase flow problems. The DFM is considered as the reference solution. The numerical examples consider a quasi-1D reservoir with a quadratic fracture system , a five-spot radial symmetric reservoir, and a completely random generated fracture system. Keywords: MINC, upscaling, two-phase flow, fractured porous media, discrete fracture model, continuum fracture model

  4. Modeling local item dependence with the hierarchical generalized linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Hong; Wang, Shudong; Kamata, Akihito

    2005-01-01

    Local item dependence (LID) can emerge when the test items are nested within common stimuli or item groups. This study proposes a three-level hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) to model LID when LID is due to such contextual effects. The proposed three-level HGLM was examined by analyzing simulated data sets and was compared with the Rasch-equivalent two-level HGLM that ignores such a nested structure of test items. The results demonstrated that the proposed model could capture LID and estimate its magnitude. Also, the two-level HGLM resulted in larger mean absolute differences between the true and the estimated item difficulties than those from the proposed three-level HGLM. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the proposed three-level HGLM estimated the ability distribution variance unaffected by the LID magnitude, while the two-level HGLM with no LID consideration increasingly underestimated the ability variance as the LID magnitude increased.

  5. The Revised Hierarchical Model: A critical review and assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroll, J.F.; Hell, J.G. van; Tokowicz, N.; Green, D.W.

    2010-01-01

    Brysbaert and Duyck (this issue) suggest that it is time to abandon the Revised Hierarchical Model (Kroll and Stewart, 1994) in favor of connectionist models such as BIA+ (Dijkstra and Van Heuven, 2002) that more accurately account for the recent evidence on non-selective access in bilingual word re

  6. Hierarchical Policy Model for Managing Heterogeneous Security Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Dong-Young; Kim, Minsoo

    2007-12-01

    The integrated security management becomes increasingly complex as security manager must take heterogeneous security systems, different networking technologies, and distributed applications into consideration. The task of managing these security systems and applications depends on various systems and vender specific issues. In this paper, we present a hierarchical policy model which are derived from the conceptual policy, and specify means to enforce this behavior. The hierarchical policy model consist of five levels which are conceptual policy level, goal-oriented policy level, target policy level, process policy level and low-level policy.

  7. Quick Web Services Lookup Model Based on Hierarchical Registration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢山; 朱国进; 陈家训

    2003-01-01

    Quick Web Services Lookup (Q-WSL) is a new model to registration and lookup of complex services in the Internet. The model is designed to quickly find complex Web services by using hierarchical registration method. The basic concepts of Web services system are introduced and presented, and then the method of hierarchical registration of services is described. In particular, service query document description and service lookup procedure are concentrated, and it addresses how to lookup these services which are registered in the Web services system. Furthermore, an example design and an evaluation of its performance are presented.Specifically, it shows that the using of attributionbased service query document design and contentbased hierarchical registration in Q-WSL allows service requesters to discover needed services more flexibly and rapidly. It is confirmed that Q-WSL is very suitable for Web services system.

  8. Bayesian structural equation modeling method for hierarchical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang Xiaomo [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Box 1831-B, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States)], E-mail: xiaomo.jiang@vanderbilt.edu; Mahadevan, Sankaran [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Box 1831-B, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States)], E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu

    2009-04-15

    A building block approach to model validation may proceed through various levels, such as material to component to subsystem to system, comparing model predictions with experimental observations at each level. Usually, experimental data becomes scarce as one proceeds from lower to higher levels. This paper presents a structural equation modeling approach to make use of the lower-level data for higher-level model validation under uncertainty, integrating several components: lower-level data, higher-level data, computational model, and latent variables. The method proposed in this paper uses latent variables to model two sets of relationships, namely, the computational model to system-level data, and lower-level data to system-level data. A Bayesian network with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is applied to represent the two relationships and to estimate the influencing factors between them. Bayesian hypothesis testing is employed to quantify the confidence in the predictive model at the system level, and the role of lower-level data in the model validation assessment at the system level. The proposed methodology is implemented for hierarchical assessment of three validation problems, using discrete observations and time-series data.

  9. MULTILEVEL RECURRENT MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL CONTROL OF COMPLEX REGIONAL SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey V. Masloboev

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The research goal and scope are development of methods and software for mathematical and computer modeling of the regional security information support systems as multilevel hierarchical systems. Such systems are characterized by loosely formalization, multiple-aspect of descendent system processes and their interconnectivity, high level dynamics and uncertainty. The research methodology is based on functional-target approach and principles of multilevel hierarchical system theory. The work considers analysis and structural-algorithmic synthesis problem-solving of the multilevel computer-aided systems intended for management and decision-making information support in the field of regional security. Main results. A hierarchical control multilevel model of regional socio-economic system complex security has been developed. The model is based on functional-target approach and provides both formal statement and solving, and practical implementation of the automated information system structure and control algorithms synthesis problems of regional security management optimal in terms of specified criteria. An approach for intralevel and interlevel coordination problem-solving in the multilevel hierarchical systems has been proposed on the basis of model application. The coordination is provided at the expense of interconnection requirements satisfaction between the functioning quality indexes (objective functions, which are optimized by the different elements of multilevel systems. That gives the possibility for sufficient coherence reaching of the local decisions, being made on the different control levels, under decentralized decision-making and external environment high dynamics. Recurrent model application provides security control mathematical models formation of regional socioeconomic systems, functioning under uncertainty. Practical relevance. The model implementation makes it possible to automate synthesis realization of

  10. Hierarchical Non-Emitting Markov Models

    CERN Document Server

    Ristad, E S; Ristad, Eric Sven; Thomas, Robert G.

    1998-01-01

    We describe a simple variant of the interpolated Markov model with non-emitting state transitions and prove that it is strictly more powerful than any Markov model. More importantly, the non-emitting model outperforms the classic interpolated model on the natural language texts under a wide range of experimental conditions, with only a modest increase in computational requirements. The non-emitting model is also much less prone to overfitting. Keywords: Markov model, interpolated Markov model, hidden Markov model, mixture modeling, non-emitting state transitions, state-conditional interpolation, statistical language model, discrete time series, Brown corpus, Wall Street Journal.

  11. Modeling interfacial fracture in Sierra.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Arthur A.; Ohashi, Yuki; Lu, Wei-Yang; Nelson, Stacy A. C.; Foulk, James W.,; Reedy, Earl David,; Austin, Kevin N.; Margolis, Stephen B.

    2013-09-01

    This report summarizes computational efforts to model interfacial fracture using cohesive zone models in the SIERRA/SolidMechanics (SIERRA/SM) finite element code. Cohesive surface elements were used to model crack initiation and propagation along predefined paths. Mesh convergence was observed with SIERRA/SM for numerous geometries. As the funding for this project came from the Advanced Simulation and Computing Verification and Validation (ASC V&V) focus area, considerable effort was spent performing verification and validation. Code verification was performed to compare code predictions to analytical solutions for simple three-element simulations as well as a higher-fidelity simulation of a double-cantilever beam. Parameter identification was conducted with Dakota using experimental results on asymmetric double-cantilever beam (ADCB) and end-notched-flexure (ENF) experiments conducted under Campaign-6 funding. Discretization convergence studies were also performed with respect to mesh size and time step and an optimization study was completed for mode II delamination using the ENF geometry. Throughout this verification process, numerous SIERRA/SM bugs were found and reported, all of which have been fixed, leading to over a 10-fold increase in convergence rates. Finally, mixed-mode flexure experiments were performed for validation. One of the unexplained issues encountered was material property variability for ostensibly the same composite material. Since the variability is not fully understood, it is difficult to accurately assess uncertainty when performing predictions.

  12. Conceptual hierarchical modeling to describe wetland plant community organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, A.M.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Allen, T.F.H.

    2010-01-01

    Using multivariate analysis, we created a hierarchical modeling process that describes how differently-scaled environmental factors interact to affect wetland-scale plant community organization in a system of small, isolated wetlands on Mount Desert Island, Maine. We followed the procedure: 1) delineate wetland groups using cluster analysis, 2) identify differently scaled environmental gradients using non-metric multidimensional scaling, 3) order gradient hierarchical levels according to spatiotem-poral scale of fluctuation, and 4) assemble hierarchical model using group relationships with ordination axes and post-hoc tests of environmental differences. Using this process, we determined 1) large wetland size and poor surface water chemistry led to the development of shrub fen wetland vegetation, 2) Sphagnum and water chemistry differences affected fen vs. marsh / sedge meadows status within small wetlands, and 3) small-scale hydrologic differences explained transitions between forested vs. non-forested and marsh vs. sedge meadow vegetation. This hierarchical modeling process can help explain how upper level contextual processes constrain biotic community response to lower-level environmental changes. It creates models with more nuanced spatiotemporal complexity than classification and regression tree procedures. Using this process, wetland scientists will be able to generate more generalizable theories of plant community organization, and useful management models. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2009.

  13. Update Legal Documents Using Hierarchical Ranking Models and Word Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    Pham, Minh Quang Nhat; Nguyen, Minh Le; Shimazu, Akira

    2010-01-01

    Our research addresses the task of updating legal documents when newinformation emerges. In this paper, we employ a hierarchical ranking model tothe task of updating legal documents. Word clustering features are incorporatedto the ranking models to exploit semantic relations between words. Experimentalresults on legal data built from the United States Code show that the hierarchicalranking model with word clustering outperforms baseline methods using VectorSpace Model, and word cluster-based ...

  14. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  15. Hydraulic fracture model comparison study: Complete results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warpinski, N.R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Abou-Sayed, I.S. [Mobil Exploration and Production Services (United States); Moschovidis, Z. [Amoco Production Co. (US); Parker, C. [CONOCO (US)

    1993-02-01

    Large quantities of natural gas exist in low permeability reservoirs throughout the US. Characteristics of these reservoirs, however, make production difficult and often economic and stimulation is required. Because of the diversity of application, hydraulic fracture design models must be able to account for widely varying rock properties, reservoir properties, in situ stresses, fracturing fluids, and proppant loads. As a result, fracture simulation has emerged as a highly complex endeavor that must be able to describe many different physical processes. The objective of this study was to develop a comparative study of hydraulic-fracture simulators in order to provide stimulation engineers with the necessary information to make rational decisions on the type of models most suited for their needs. This report compares the fracture modeling results of twelve different simulators, some of them run in different modes for eight separate design cases. Comparisons of length, width, height, net pressure, maximum width at the wellbore, average width at the wellbore, and average width in the fracture have been made, both for the final geometry and as a function of time. For the models in this study, differences in fracture length, height and width are often greater than a factor of two. In addition, several comparisons of the same model with different options show a large variability in model output depending upon the options chosen. Two comparisons were made of the same model run by different companies; in both cases the agreement was good. 41 refs., 54 figs., 83 tabs.

  16. On the construction of hierarchic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Out, D.-J.; Rikxoort, van R.P.; Bakker, R.R.

    1994-01-01

    One of the main problems in the field of model-based diagnosis of technical systems today is finding the most useful model or models of the system being diagnosed. Often, a model showing the physical components and the connections between them is all that is available. As systems grow larger and lar

  17. Modeling urban air pollution with optimized hierarchical fuzzy inference system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tashayo, Behnam; Alimohammadi, Abbas

    2016-10-01

    Environmental exposure assessments (EEA) and epidemiological studies require urban air pollution models with appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. Uncertain available data and inflexible models can limit air pollution modeling techniques, particularly in under developing countries. This paper develops a hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS) to model air pollution under different land use, transportation, and meteorological conditions. To improve performance, the system treats the issue as a large-scale and high-dimensional problem and develops the proposed model using a three-step approach. In the first step, a geospatial information system (GIS) and probabilistic methods are used to preprocess the data. In the second step, a hierarchical structure is generated based on the problem. In the third step, the accuracy and complexity of the model are simultaneously optimized with a multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm. We examine the capabilities of the proposed model for predicting daily and annual mean PM2.5 and NO2 and compare the accuracy of the results with representative models from existing literature. The benefits provided by the model features, including probabilistic preprocessing, multi-objective optimization, and hierarchical structure, are precisely evaluated by comparing five different consecutive models in terms of accuracy and complexity criteria. Fivefold cross validation is used to assess the performance of the generated models. The respective average RMSEs and coefficients of determination (R (2)) for the test datasets using proposed model are as follows: daily PM2.5 = (8.13, 0.78), annual mean PM2.5 = (4.96, 0.80), daily NO2 = (5.63, 0.79), and annual mean NO2 = (2.89, 0.83). The obtained results demonstrate that the developed hierarchical fuzzy inference system can be utilized for modeling air pollution in EEA and epidemiological studies.

  18. ECoS, a framework for modelling hierarchical spatial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, John R W; Gorley, Ray N

    2003-10-01

    A general framework for modelling hierarchical spatial systems has been developed and implemented as the ECoS3 software package. The structure of this framework is described, and illustrated with representative examples. It allows the set-up and integration of sets of advection-diffusion equations representing multiple constituents interacting in a spatial context. Multiple spaces can be defined, with zero, one or two-dimensions and can be nested, and linked through constituent transfers. Model structure is generally object-oriented and hierarchical, reflecting the natural relations within its real-world analogue. Velocities, dispersions and inter-constituent transfers, together with additional functions, are defined as properties of constituents to which they apply. The resulting modular structure of ECoS models facilitates cut and paste model development, and template model components have been developed for the assembly of a range of estuarine water quality models. Published examples of applications to the geochemical dynamics of estuaries are listed.

  19. Fracture model of radiation blistering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamada, K.; Higashida, Y.

    1979-06-01

    The formation process of blisters is interpreted by a fracture model on the basis of the stress fields around a lenticular bubble calculated in a previous paper. This model implicitly presumes a microcrack nucleated at a depth near the projected range of the ions. Two factors are separated theoretically to explain the blister formation: One is a geometrical factor which depends only on the ratio of size to depth, from a free surface, and the other factor is proportional to the square of the ratio between the internal gas pressure of the bubble to plastic yield stress of the target materials, depending entirely on the physical and chemical properties of the materials and gas atoms. The relation between the blister diameter and the cover thickness must be basically linear as expected from the first factor, but is modulated by the second factor, giving a slight departure from linearity as observed by experiment. The ratio of the gas pressure to the yield stress must be 0.02--0.2 in magnitude and depends on the ion energy and the target materials. This value leads to an estimation that the amount of gas atoms contained in the blister is about 10% of the injected ions. Griffith's criterion for the crack propagation in the subsurface layer with taking into account of ductility of the materials near the crack tip was derived, and showed that the estimated internal pressure of the blister is far smaller than the necessary pressure to satisfy the criterion. The objections against the gas-pressure model were criticized on the basis of the present model.

  20. Inference in HIV dynamics models via hierarchical likelihood

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    HIV dynamical models are often based on non-linear systems of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which do not have analytical solution. Introducing random effects in such models leads to very challenging non-linear mixed-effects models. To avoid the numerical computation of multiple integrals involved in the likelihood, we propose a hierarchical likelihood (h-likelihood) approach, treated in the spirit of a penalized likelihood. We give the asymptotic distribution of the maximum h-likelih...

  1. Modeling diurnal hormone profiles by hierarchical state space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ziyue; Guo, Wensheng

    2015-10-30

    Adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) diurnal patterns contain both smooth circadian rhythms and pulsatile activities. How to evaluate and compare them between different groups is a challenging statistical task. In particular, we are interested in testing (1) whether the smooth ACTH circadian rhythms in chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia patients differ from those in healthy controls and (2) whether the patterns of pulsatile activities are different. In this paper, a hierarchical state space model is proposed to extract these signals from noisy observations. The smooth circadian rhythms shared by a group of subjects are modeled by periodic smoothing splines. The subject level pulsatile activities are modeled by autoregressive processes. A functional random effect is adopted at the pair level to account for the matched pair design. Parameters are estimated by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Signals are extracted as posterior means. Computationally efficient Kalman filter algorithms are adopted for implementation. Application of the proposed model reveals that the smooth circadian rhythms are similar in the two groups but the pulsatile activities in patients are weaker than those in the healthy controls. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Discrete modeling of hydraulic fracturing processes in a complex pre-existing fracture network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, K.; Rutqvist, J.; Nakagawa, S.; Houseworth, J. E.; Birkholzer, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Hydraulic fracturing and stimulation of fracture networks are widely used by the energy industry (e.g., shale gas extraction, enhanced geothermal systems) to increase permeability of geological formations. Numerous analytical and numerical models have been developed to help understand and predict the behavior of hydraulically induced fractures. However, many existing models assume simple fracturing scenarios with highly idealized fracture geometries (e.g., propagation of a single fracture with assumed shapes in a homogeneous medium). Modeling hydraulic fracture propagation in the presence of natural fractures and homogeneities can be very challenging because of the complex interactions between fluid, rock matrix, and rock interfaces, as well as the interactions between propagating fractures and pre-existing natural fractures. In this study, the TOUGH-RBSN code for coupled hydro-mechanical modeling is utilized to simulate hydraulic fracture propagation and its interaction with pre-existing fracture networks. The simulation tool combines TOUGH2, a simulator of subsurface multiphase flow and mass transport based on the finite volume approach, with the implementation of a lattice modeling approach for geomechanical and fracture-damage behavior, named Rigid-Body-Spring Network (RBSN). The discrete fracture network (DFN) approach is facilitated in the Voronoi discretization via a fully automated modeling procedure. The numerical program is verified through a simple simulation for single fracture propagation, in which the resulting fracture geometry is compared to an analytical solution for given fracture length and aperture. Subsequently, predictive simulations are conducted for planned laboratory experiments using rock-analogue (soda-lime glass) samples containing a designed, pre-existing fracture network. The results of a preliminary simulation demonstrate selective fracturing and fluid infiltration along the pre-existing fractures, with additional fracturing in part

  3. Learning curve estimation in medical devices and procedures: hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindarajulu, Usha S; Stillo, Marco; Goldfarb, David; Matheny, Michael E; Resnic, Frederic S

    2017-07-30

    In the use of medical device procedures, learning effects have been shown to be a critical component of medical device safety surveillance. To support their estimation of these effects, we evaluated multiple methods for modeling these rates within a complex simulated dataset representing patients treated by physicians clustered within institutions. We employed unique modeling for the learning curves to incorporate the learning hierarchy between institution and physicians and then modeled them within established methods that work with hierarchical data such as generalized estimating equations (GEE) and generalized linear mixed effect models. We found that both methods performed well, but that the GEE may have some advantages over the generalized linear mixed effect models for ease of modeling and a substantially lower rate of model convergence failures. We then focused more on using GEE and performed a separate simulation to vary the shape of the learning curve as well as employed various smoothing methods to the plots. We concluded that while both hierarchical methods can be used with our mathematical modeling of the learning curve, the GEE tended to perform better across multiple simulated scenarios in order to accurately model the learning effect as a function of physician and hospital hierarchical data in the use of a novel medical device. We found that the choice of shape used to produce the 'learning-free' dataset would be dataset specific, while the choice of smoothing method was negligibly different from one another. This was an important application to understand how best to fit this unique learning curve function for hierarchical physician and hospital data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Hierarchical Item Response Models for Cognitive Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Mark Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive diagnosis models (see, e.g., Rupp, Templin, & Henson, 2010) have received increasing attention within educational and psychological measurement. The popularity of these models may be largely due to their perceived ability to provide useful information concerning both examinees (classifying them according to their attribute profiles)…

  5. Hierarchical model-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar image registration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yang; Huang, Haifeng; Dong, Zhen; Wu, Manqing

    2014-01-01

    With the rapid development of spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar technology, classical image registration methods are incompetent for high-efficiency and high-accuracy masses of real data processing. Based on this fact, we propose a new method. This method consists of two steps: coarse registration that is realized by cross-correlation algorithm and fine registration that is realized by hierarchical model-based algorithm. Hierarchical model-based algorithm is a high-efficiency optimization algorithm. The key features of this algorithm are a global model that constrains the overall structure of the motion estimated, a local model that is used in the estimation process, and a coarse-to-fine refinement strategy. Experimental results from different kinds of simulated and real data have confirmed that the proposed method is very fast and has high accuracy. Comparing with a conventional cross-correlation method, the proposed method provides markedly improved performance.

  6. Concept Association and Hierarchical Hamming Clustering Model in Text Classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Su Gui-yang; Li Jian-hua; Ma Ying-hua; Li Sheng-hong; Yin Zhong-hang

    2004-01-01

    We propose two models in this paper. The concept of association model is put forward to obtain the co-occurrence relationships among keywords in the documents and the hierarchical Hamming clustering model is used to reduce the dimensionality of the category feature vector space which can solve the problem of the extremely high dimensionality of the documents' feature space. The results of experiment indicate that it can obtain the co-occurrence relations among keywords in the documents which promote the recall of classification system effectively. The hierarchical Hamming clustering model can reduce the dimensionality of the category feature vector efficiently, the size of the vector space is only about 10% of the primary dimensionality.

  7. Hierarchical Bulk Synchronous Parallel Model and Performance Optimization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Linpeng; SUNYongqiang; YUAN Wei

    1999-01-01

    Based on the framework of BSP, aHierarchical Bulk Synchronous Parallel (HBSP) performance model isintroduced in this paper to capture the performance optimizationproblem for various stages in parallel program development and toaccurately predict the performance of a parallel program byconsidering factors causing variance at local computation and globalcommunication. The related methodology has been applied to several realapplications and the results show that HBSP is a suitable model foroptimizing parallel programs.

  8. Fractal Derivative Model for Air Permeability in Hierarchic Porous Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Fan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Air permeability in hierarchic porous media does not obey Fick's equation or its modification because fractal objects have well-defined geometric properties, which are discrete and discontinuous. We propose a theoretical model dealing with, for the first time, a seemingly complex air permeability process using fractal derivative method. The fractal derivative model has been successfully applied to explain the novel air permeability phenomenon of cocoon. The theoretical analysis was in agreement with experimental results.

  9. Micromechanics Modeling of Fracture in Nanocrystalline Metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaessgen, E. H.; Piascik, R. S.; Raju, I. S.; Harris, C. E.

    2002-01-01

    Nanocrystalline metals have very high theoretical strength, but suffer from a lack of ductility and toughness. Therefore, it is critical to understand the mechanisms of deformation and fracture of these materials before their full potential can be achieved. Because classical fracture mechanics is based on the comparison of computed fracture parameters, such as stress intlmsity factors, to their empirically determined critical values, it does not adequately describe the fundamental physics of fracture required to predict the behavior of nanocrystalline metals. Thus, micromechanics-based techniques must be considered to quanti@ the physical processes of deformation and fracture within nanocrystalline metals. This paper discusses hndamental physicsbased modeling strategies that may be useful for the prediction Iof deformation, crack formation and crack growth within nanocrystalline metals.

  10. A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Young, K.V.

    2008-01-01

    Estimating density is a fundamental objective of many animal population studies. Application of methods for estimating population size from ostensibly closed populations is widespread, but ineffective for estimating absolute density because most populations are subject to short-term movements or so-called temporary emigration. This phenomenon invalidates the resulting estimates because the effective sample area is unknown. A number of methods involving the adjustment of estimates based on heuristic considerations are in widespread use. In this paper, a hierarchical model of spatially indexed capture recapture data is proposed for sampling based on area searches of spatial sample units subject to uniform sampling intensity. The hierarchical model contains explicit models for the distribution of individuals and their movements, in addition to an observation model that is conditional on the location of individuals during sampling. Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical model is achieved by the use of data augmentation, which allows for a straightforward implementation in the freely available software WinBUGS. We present results of a simulation study that was carried out to evaluate the operating characteristics of the Bayesian estimator under variable densities and movement patterns of individuals. An application of the model is presented for survey data on the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) in Arizona, USA.

  11. A hierarchical model for ordinal matrix factorization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paquet, Ulrich; Thomson, Blaise; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    their ratings for other movies. The Netflix data set is used for evaluation, which consists of around 100 million ratings. Using root mean-squared error (RMSE) as an evaluation metric, results show that the suggested model outperforms alternative factorization techniques. Results also show how Gibbs sampling...

  12. Identifying rock blocks based on hierarchical rock-mass structure model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Rock-masses are divided into many closed blocks by deterministic and stochastic discontinuities and engineering interfaces in complex rock-mass engineering. Determining the sizes, shapes, and adjacent relations of blocks is important for stability analysis of fractured rock masses. Here we propose an algorithm for identifying spatial blocks based on a hierarchical 3D Rock-mass Structure Model (RSM). First, a model is built composed of deterministic discontinuities, engineering interfaces, and the earth’s surface, and the deterministic blocks surrounded by these interfaces are traced. Then, in each deter-ministic block, a network model of stochastic discontinuities is built and the stochastic blocks are traced. Building a unitary wire frame that connects all interfaces seamlessly is the key for our algorithm to identify the above two kinds of blocks. Using this algorithm, geometric models can be built for block theory, discrete element method, and discontinuous deformation analysis.

  13. Hierarchical, model-based risk management of critical infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baiardi, F. [Polo G.Marconi La Spezia, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita di Pisa, L.go B.Pontecorvo 3 56127, Pisa (Italy)], E-mail: f.baiardi@unipi.it; Telmon, C.; Sgandurra, D. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita di Pisa, L.go B.Pontecorvo 3 56127, Pisa (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    Risk management is a process that includes several steps, from vulnerability analysis to the formulation of a risk mitigation plan that selects countermeasures to be adopted. With reference to an information infrastructure, we present a risk management strategy that considers a sequence of hierarchical models, each describing dependencies among infrastructure components. A dependency exists anytime a security-related attribute of a component depends upon the attributes of other components. We discuss how this notion supports the formal definition of risk mitigation plan and the evaluation of the infrastructure robustness. A hierarchical relation exists among models that are analyzed because each model increases the level of details of some components in a previous one. Since components and dependencies are modeled through a hypergraph, to increase the model detail level, some hypergraph nodes are replaced by more and more detailed hypergraphs. We show how critical information for the assessment can be automatically deduced from the hypergraph and define conditions that determine cases where a hierarchical decomposition simplifies the assessment. In these cases, the assessment has to analyze the hypergraph that replaces the component rather than applying again all the analyses to a more detailed, and hence larger, hypergraph. We also show how the proposed framework supports the definition of a risk mitigation plan and discuss some indicators of the overall infrastructure robustness. Lastly, the development of tools to support the assessment is discussed.

  14. Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data

    CERN Document Server

    Parent, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts a

  15. A Hierarchical Probability Model of Colon Cancer

    CERN Document Server

    Kelly, Michael

    2010-01-01

    We consider a model of fixed size $N = 2^l$ in which there are $l$ generations of daughter cells and a stem cell. In each generation $i$ there are $2^{i-1}$ daughter cells. At each integral time unit the cells split so that the stem cell splits into a stem cell and generation 1 daughter cell and the generation $i$ daughter cells become two cells of generation $i+1$. The last generation is removed from the population. The stem cell gets first and second mutations at rates $u_1$ and $u_2$ and the daughter cells get first and second mutations at rates $v_1$ and $v_2$. We find the distribution for the time it takes to get two mutations as $N$ goes to infinity and the mutation rates go to 0. We also find the distribution for the location of the mutations. Several outcomes are possible depending on how fast the rates go to 0. The model considered has been proposed by Komarova (2007) as a model for colon cancer.

  16. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...... facilitates plug-and-play addition of subsystems without redesign of any controllers. The method is supported by a number of simulations featuring a three-level smart-grid power control system for a small isolated power grid....

  17. Bayesian Hierarchical Models to Augment the Mediterranean Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    year. Our goal is to develop an ensemble ocean forecast methodology, using Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling (BHM) tools . The ocean ensemble forecast...from above); i.e. we assume Ut ~ Z Λt1/2. WORK COMPLETED The prototype MFS-Wind-BHM was designed and implemented based on stochastic...coding refinements we implemented on the prototype surface wind BHM. A DWF event in February 2005, in the Gulf of Lions, was identified for reforecast

  18. Emergence of a 'visual number sense' in hierarchical generative models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoianov, Ivilin; Zorzi, Marco

    2012-01-08

    Numerosity estimation is phylogenetically ancient and foundational to human mathematical learning, but its computational bases remain controversial. Here we show that visual numerosity emerges as a statistical property of images in 'deep networks' that learn a hierarchical generative model of the sensory input. Emergent numerosity detectors had response profiles resembling those of monkey parietal neurons and supported numerosity estimation with the same behavioral signature shown by humans and animals.

  19. Hierarchical animal movement models for population-level inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooten, Mevin B.; Buderman, Frances E.; Brost, Brian M.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Ivans, Jacob S.

    2016-01-01

    New methods for modeling animal movement based on telemetry data are developed regularly. With advances in telemetry capabilities, animal movement models are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Despite a need for population-level inference, animal movement models are still predominantly developed for individual-level inference. Most efforts to upscale the inference to the population level are either post hoc or complicated enough that only the developer can implement the model. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide an ideal platform for the development of population-level animal movement models but can be challenging to fit due to computational limitations or extensive tuning required. We propose a two-stage procedure for fitting hierarchical animal movement models to telemetry data. The two-stage approach is statistically rigorous and allows one to fit individual-level movement models separately, then resample them using a secondary MCMC algorithm. The primary advantages of the two-stage approach are that the first stage is easily parallelizable and the second stage is completely unsupervised, allowing for an automated fitting procedure in many cases. We demonstrate the two-stage procedure with two applications of animal movement models. The first application involves a spatial point process approach to modeling telemetry data, and the second involves a more complicated continuous-time discrete-space animal movement model. We fit these models to simulated data and real telemetry data arising from a population of monitored Canada lynx in Colorado, USA.

  20. Coordinated Resource Management Models in Hierarchical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabsi Mounir

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In response to the trend of efficient global economy, constructing a global logistic model has garnered much attention from the industry .Location selection is an important issue for those international companies that are interested in building a global logistics management system. Infrastructure in Developing Countries are based on the use of both classical and modern control technology, for which the most important components are professional levels of structure knowledge, dynamics and management processes, threats and interference and external and internal attacks. The problem of control flows of energy and materials resources in local and regional structures in normal and marginal, emergency operation provoked information attacks or threats on failure flows are further relevant especially when considering the low level of professional ,psychological and cognitive training of operational personnel manager. Logistics Strategies include the business goals requirements, allowable decisions tactics, and vision for designing and operating a logistics system .In this paper described the selection module coordinating flow management strategies based on the use of resources and logistics systems concepts.

  1. Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

    2003-01-01

    Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.

  2. A new approach for modeling generalization gradients: A case for Hierarchical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koen eVanbrabant

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A case is made for the use of hierarchical models in the analysis of generalization gradients. Hierarchical models overcome several restrictions that are imposed by repeated measures analysis-of-variance (rANOVA, the default statistical method in current generalization research. More specifically, hierarchical models allow to include continuous independent variables and overcomes problematic assumptions such as sphericity. We focus on how generalization research can benefit from this added flexibility. In a simulation study we demonstrate the dominance of hierarchical models over rANOVA. In addition, we show the lack of efficiency of the Mauchly's sphericity test in sample sizes typical for generalization research, and confirm how violations of sphericity increase the probability of type I errors. A worked example of a hierarchical model is provided, with a specific emphasis on the interpretation of parameters relevant for generalization research.

  3. A new approach for modeling generalization gradients: a case for hierarchical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanbrabant, Koen; Boddez, Yannick; Verduyn, Philippe; Mestdagh, Merijn; Hermans, Dirk; Raes, Filip

    2015-01-01

    A case is made for the use of hierarchical models in the analysis of generalization gradients. Hierarchical models overcome several restrictions that are imposed by repeated measures analysis-of-variance (rANOVA), the default statistical method in current generalization research. More specifically, hierarchical models allow to include continuous independent variables and overcomes problematic assumptions such as sphericity. We focus on how generalization research can benefit from this added flexibility. In a simulation study we demonstrate the dominance of hierarchical models over rANOVA. In addition, we show the lack of efficiency of the Mauchly's sphericity test in sample sizes typical for generalization research, and confirm how violations of sphericity increase the probability of type I errors. A worked example of a hierarchical model is provided, with a specific emphasis on the interpretation of parameters relevant for generalization research.

  4. Bonded-cell model for particle fracture

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Duc-Hanh; Azéma, Émilien; Sornay, Philippe; Radjaï, Farhang

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Particle degradation and fracture play an important role in natural granular flows and in many applications of granular materials. We analyze the fracture properties of two-dimensional disklike particles modeled as aggregates of rigid cells bonded along their sides by a cohesive Mohr-Coulomb law and simulated by the contact dynamics method. We show that the compressive strength scales with tensile strength between cells but depends also on the friction coefficient and ...

  5. Cohesive mixed mode fracture modelling and experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Rasmus; Olesen, John Forbes

    2008-01-01

    A nonlinear mixed mode model originally developed by Wernersson [Wernersson H. Fracture characterization of wood adhesive joints. Report TVSM-1006, Lund University, Division of Structural Mechanics; 1994], based on nonlinear fracture mechanics, is discussed and applied to model interfacial cracking...... in a steel–concrete interface. The model is based on the principles of Hillerborgs fictitious crack model, however, the Mode I softening description is modified taking into account the influence of shear. The model couples normal and shear stresses for a given combination of Mode I and II fracture...... curves, which may be interpreted using the nonlinear mixed mode model. The interpretation of test results is carried out in a two step inverse analysis applying numerical optimization tools. It is demonstrated how to perform the inverse analysis, which couples the assumed individual experimental load...

  6. Hierarchical Heteroclinics in Dynamical Model of Cognitive Processes: Chunking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afraimovich, Valentin S.; Young, Todd R.; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.

    Combining the results of brain imaging and nonlinear dynamics provides a new hierarchical vision of brain network functionality that is helpful in understanding the relationship of the network to different mental tasks. Using these ideas it is possible to build adequate models for the description and prediction of different cognitive activities in which the number of variables is usually small enough for analysis. The dynamical images of different mental processes depend on their temporal organization and, as a rule, cannot be just simple attractors since cognition is characterized by transient dynamics. The mathematical image for a robust transient is a stable heteroclinic channel consisting of a chain of saddles connected by unstable separatrices. We focus here on hierarchical chunking dynamics that can represent several cognitive activities. Chunking is the dynamical phenomenon that means dividing a long information chain into shorter items. Chunking is known to be important in many processes of perception, learning, memory and cognition. We prove that in the phase space of the model that describes chunking there exists a new mathematical object — heteroclinic sequence of heteroclinic cycles — using the technique of slow-fast approximations. This new object serves as a skeleton of motions reflecting sequential features of hierarchical chunking dynamics and is an adequate image of the chunking processing.

  7. Challenges in Continuum Modelling of Intergranular Fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coffman, Valerie; Sethna, James P.; Ingraffea, A. R.;

    2011-01-01

    Intergranular fracture in polycrystals is often simulated by finite elements coupled to a cohesive zone model for the interfaces, requiring cohesive laws for grain boundaries as a function of their geometry. We discuss three challenges in understanding intergranular fracture in polycrystals. First......, 3D grain boundary geometries comprise a five-dimensional space. Second, the energy and peak stress of grain boundaries have singularities for all commensurate grain boundaries, especially those with short repeat distances. Thirdly, fracture nucleation and growth depend not only upon the properties...... properties. To address the last challenge, we demonstrate a method for atomistically extracting the fracture properties of geometrically complex local regions on the fly from within a finite element simulation....

  8. Universal asymptotic umbrella for hydraulic fracture modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Linkov, Aleksandr M

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents universal asymptotic solution needed for efficient modeling of hydraulic fractures. We show that when neglecting the lag, there is universal asymptotic equation for the near-front opening. It appears that apart from the mechanical properties of fluid and rock, the asymptotic opening depends merely on the local speed of fracture propagation. This implies that, on one hand, the global problem is ill-posed, when trying to solve it as a boundary value problem under a fixed position of the front. On the other hand, when properly used, the universal asymptotics drastically facilitates solving hydraulic fracture problems (both analytically and numerically). We derive simple universal asymptotics and comment on their employment for efficient numerical simulation of hydraulic fractures, in particular, by well-established Level Set and Fast Marching Methods.

  9. An Efficient Two-Scale Hybrid Embedded Fracture Model for Shale Gas Simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Amir, Sahar

    2016-12-27

    Natural and hydraulic fractures existence and state differs on a reservoir-by-reservoir or even on a well-by-well basis leading to the necessity of exploring the flow regimes variations with respect to the diverse fracture-network shapes forged. Conventional Dual-Porosity Dual-Permeability (DPDP) schemes are not adequate to model such complex fracture-network systems. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper, an iterative Hybrid Embedded multiscale (two-scale) Fracture model (HEF) is applied on a derived fit-for-purpose shale gas model. The HEF model involves splitting the fracture computations into two scales: 1) fine-scale solves for the flux exchange parameter within each grid cell; 2) coarse-scale solves for the pressure applied to the domain grid cells using the flux exchange parameter computed at each grid cell from the fine-scale. After that, the D dimensions matrix pressure and the (D-1) lower dimensional fracture pressure are solved as a system to apply the matrix-fracture coupling. HEF model combines the DPDP overlapping continua concept, the DFN lower dimensional fractures concept, the HFN hierarchical fracture concept, and the CCFD model simplicity. As for the fit-for-purpose shale gas model, various fit-for-purpose shale gas models can be derived using any set of selected properties plugged in one of the most popularly used proposed literature models as shown in the appendix. Also, this paper shows that shale extreme low permeability cause flow behavior to be dominated by the structure and magnitude of high permeability fractures.

  10. A multiscale model of distributed fracture and permeability in solids in all-round compression

    CERN Document Server

    De Bellis, Maria Laura; Ortiz, Michael; Pandolfi, Anna

    2016-01-01

    We present a microstructural model of permeability in fractured solids, where the fractures are described in terms of recursive families of parallel, equidistant cohesive faults. Faults originate upon the attainment of a tensile or shear resistance in the undamaged material. Secondary faults may form in a hierarchical orga- nization, creating a complex network of connected fractures that modify the permeability of the solid. The undamaged solid may possess initial porosity and permeability. The particular geometry of the superposed micro-faults lends itself to an explicit analytical quantification of the porosity and permeability of the dam- aged material. The approach is particularly appealing as a means of modeling low permeability oil and gas reservoirs stimulated by hydraulic fracturing.

  11. Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

  12. Modelling stress-dependent permeability in fractured rock including effects of propagating and bending fractures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latham, J.P.; Xiang, J.; Belayneh, M.; Nick, H.M.; Tsang, C.F.; Blunt, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    The influence of in-situ stresses on flow processes in fractured rock is investigated using a novel modelling approach. The combined finite-discrete element method (FEMDEM) is used to model the deformation of a fractured rock mass. The fracture wall displacements and aperture changes are modelled in

  13. Discrete Fracture Network Modelling in a Naturally Fractured Carbonate Reservoir in the Jingbei Oilfield, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junling Fang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an integrated approach of discrete fracture network modelling for a naturally fractured buried-hill carbonate reservoir in the Jingbei Oilfield by using a 3D seismic survey, conventional well logs, and core data. The ant tracking attribute, extracted from 3D seismic data, is used to detect the faults and large-scale fractures. Fracture density and dip angle are evaluated by observing drilling cores of seven wells. The fracture density distribution in spatiality was predicted in four steps; firstly, the ant tracking attribute was extracted as a geophysical log; then an artificial neural network model was built by relating the fracture density with logs, e.g., acoustic, gamma ray, compensated neutron, density, and ant tracking; then 3D distribution models of acoustic, gamma ray, compensated neutron and density were generated by using a Gaussian random function simulation; and, finally, the fracture density distribution in 3D was predicted by using the generated artificial neural network model. Then, different methods were used to build the discrete fracture network model for different types of fractures of which large-scale fractures were modelled deterministically and small-scale fractures were modelled stochastically. The results show that the workflow presented in this study is effective for building discrete fracture network models for naturally fractured reservoirs.

  14. Reduced Fracture Finite Element Model Analysis of an Efficient Two-Scale Hybrid Embedded Fracture Model

    KAUST Repository

    Amir, Sahar Z.

    2017-06-09

    A Hybrid Embedded Fracture (HEF) model was developed to reduce various computational costs while maintaining physical accuracy (Amir and Sun, 2016). HEF splits the computations into fine scale and coarse scale. Fine scale solves analytically for the matrix-fracture flux exchange parameter. Coarse scale solves for the properties of the entire system. In literature, fractures were assumed to be either vertical or horizontal for simplification (Warren and Root, 1963). Matrix-fracture flux exchange parameter was given few equations built on that assumption (Kazemi, 1968; Lemonnier and Bourbiaux, 2010). However, such simplified cases do not apply directly for actual random fracture shapes, directions, orientations …etc. This paper shows that the HEF fine scale analytic solution (Amir and Sun, 2016) generates the flux exchange parameter found in literature for vertical and horizontal fracture cases. For other fracture cases, the flux exchange parameter changes according to the angle, slop, direction, … etc. This conclusion rises from the analysis of both: the Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) and the HEF schemes. The behavior of both schemes is analyzed with exactly similar fracture conditions and the results are shown and discussed. Then, a generalization is illustrated for any slightly compressible single-phase fluid within fractured porous media and its results are discussed.

  15. Model on surface borehole squeezing deformation fracture*

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Hai-tao; HU Qian-ting; HUANG Sheng-shu

    2009-01-01

    As a good method to solve the problem of high methane on the workface and in the goaf, drawing coal strata methane through a surface borehole is used. However, the excavation affected the overlying rock strata greatly. When the excavation face passed through the surface borehole position, the surface borehole fractures fast. This problem was seriously related to the unformed squeeze effect. Therefore, a squeezing deformation fracture model based on the rock strata squeezing effect was set up. At the same time, a 3DEC simulation model is presented to confirm the theory. The result shows that the mod-el is reliable and has a good engineering application value.

  16. A hierarchical community occurrence model for North Carolina stream fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midway, S.R.; Wagner, Tyler; Tracy, B.H.

    2016-01-01

    The southeastern USA is home to one of the richest—and most imperiled and threatened—freshwater fish assemblages in North America. For many of these rare and threatened species, conservation efforts are often limited by a lack of data. Drawing on a unique and extensive data set spanning over 20 years, we modeled occurrence probabilities of 126 stream fish species sampled throughout North Carolina, many of which occur more broadly in the southeastern USA. Specifically, we developed species-specific occurrence probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian multispecies models that were based on common land use and land cover covariates. We also used index of biotic integrity tolerance classifications as a second level in the model hierarchy; we identify this level as informative for our work, but it is flexible for future model applications. Based on the partial-pooling property of the models, we were able to generate occurrence probabilities for many imperiled and data-poor species in addition to highlighting a considerable amount of occurrence heterogeneity that supports species-specific investigations whenever possible. Our results provide critical species-level information on many threatened and imperiled species as well as information that may assist with re-evaluation of existing management strategies, such as the use of surrogate species. Finally, we highlight the use of a relatively simple hierarchical model that can easily be generalized for similar situations in which conventional models fail to provide reliable estimates for data-poor groups.

  17. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  18. Application of Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling to Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Shutin, Dmitriy

    2012-01-01

    . The estimators result as an application of the variational message-passing algorithm on the factor graph representing the signal model extended with the hierarchical prior models. Numerical results demonstrate the superior performance of our channel estimators as compared to traditional and state......Existing methods for sparse channel estimation typically provide an estimate computed as the solution maximizing an objective function defined as the sum of the log-likelihood function and a penalization term proportional to the l1-norm of the parameter of interest. However, other penalization......-of-the-art sparse methods....

  19. Bayesian hierarchical modeling for detecting safety signals in clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, H Amy; Ma, Haijun; Carlin, Bradley P

    2011-09-01

    Detection of safety signals from clinical trial adverse event data is critical in drug development, but carries a challenging statistical multiplicity problem. Bayesian hierarchical mixture modeling is appealing for its ability to borrow strength across subgroups in the data, as well as moderate extreme findings most likely due merely to chance. We implement such a model for subject incidence (Berry and Berry, 2004 ) using a binomial likelihood, and extend it to subject-year adjusted incidence rate estimation under a Poisson likelihood. We use simulation to choose a signal detection threshold, and illustrate some effective graphics for displaying the flagged signals.

  20. An Extended Hierarchical Trusted Model for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU Ruiying; XU Mingdi; ZHANG Huanguo

    2006-01-01

    Cryptography and authentication are traditional approach for providing network security. However, they are not sufficient for solving the problems which malicious nodes compromise whole wireless sensor network leading to invalid data transmission and wasting resource by using vicious behaviors. This paper puts forward an extended hierarchical trusted architecture for wireless sensor network, and establishes trusted congregations by three-tier framework. The method combines statistics, economics with encrypt mechanism for developing two trusted models which evaluate cluster head nodes and common sensor nodes respectively. The models form logical trusted-link from command node to common sensor nodes and guarantees the network can run in secure and reliable circumstance.

  1. Ensemble renormalization group for the random-field hierarchical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decelle, Aurélien; Parisi, Giorgio; Rocchi, Jacopo

    2014-03-01

    The renormalization group (RG) methods are still far from being completely understood in quenched disordered systems. In order to gain insight into the nature of the phase transition of these systems, it is common to investigate simple models. In this work we study a real-space RG transformation on the Dyson hierarchical lattice with a random field, which leads to a reconstruction of the RG flow and to an evaluation of the critical exponents of the model at T=0. We show that this method gives very accurate estimations of the critical exponents by comparing our results with those obtained by some of us using an independent method.

  2. Discrete fracture modeling of multiphase flow and hydrocarbon production in fractured shale or low permeability reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Y.; Settgast, R. R.; Fu, P.; Tompson, A. F. B.; Morris, J.; Ryerson, F. J.

    2016-12-01

    It has long been recognized that multiphase flow and transport in fractured porous media is very important for various subsurface applications. Hydrocarbon fluid flow and production from hydraulically fractured shale reservoirs is an important and complicated example of multiphase flow in fractured formations. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing is able to create extensive fracture networks in low permeability shale rocks, leading to increased formation permeability and enhanced hydrocarbon production. However, unconventional wells experience a much faster production decline than conventional hydrocarbon recovery. Maintaining sustainable and economically viable shale gas/oil production requires additional wells and re-fracturing. Excessive fracturing fluid loss during hydraulic fracturing operations may also drive up operation costs and raise potential environmental concerns. Understanding and modeling processes that contribute to decreasing productivity and fracturing fluid loss represent a critical component for unconventional hydrocarbon recovery analysis. Towards this effort we develop a discrete fracture model (DFM) in GEOS (LLNL multi-physics computational code) to simulate multiphase flow and transfer in hydraulically fractured reservoirs. The DFM model is able to explicitly account for both individual fractures and their surrounding rocks, therefore allowing for an accurate prediction of impacts of fracture-matrix interactions on hydrocarbon production. We apply the DFM model to simulate three-phase (water, oil, and gas) flow behaviors in fractured shale rocks as a result of different hydraulic stimulation scenarios. Numerical results show that multiphase flow behaviors at the fracture-matrix interface play a major role in controlling both hydrocarbon production and fracturing fluid recovery rates. The DFM model developed in this study will be coupled with the existing hydro-fracture model to provide a fully integrated

  3. Facial animation on an anatomy-based hierarchical face model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Prakash, Edmond C.; Sung, Eric

    2003-04-01

    In this paper we propose a new hierarchical 3D facial model based on anatomical knowledge that provides high fidelity for realistic facial expression animation. Like real human face, the facial model has a hierarchical biomechanical structure, incorporating a physically-based approximation to facial skin tissue, a set of anatomically-motivated facial muscle actuators and underlying skull structure. The deformable skin model has multi-layer structure to approximate different types of soft tissue. It takes into account the nonlinear stress-strain relationship of the skin and the fact that soft tissue is almost incompressible. Different types of muscle models have been developed to simulate distribution of the muscle force on the skin due to muscle contraction. By the presence of the skull model, our facial model takes advantage of both more accurate facial deformation and the consideration of facial anatomy during the interactive definition of facial muscles. Under the muscular force, the deformation of the facial skin is evaluated using numerical integration of the governing dynamic equations. The dynamic facial animation algorithm runs at interactive rate with flexible and realistic facial expressions to be generated.

  4. A Bisimulation-based Hierarchical Framework for Software Development Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Liang

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Software development models have been ripen since the emergence of software engineering, like waterfall model, V-model, spiral model, etc. To ensure the successful implementation of those models, various metrics for software products and development process have been developed along, like CMMI, software metrics, and process re-engineering, etc. The quality of software products and processes can be ensured in consistence as much as possible and the abstract integrity of a software product can be achieved. However, in reality, the maintenance of software products is still high and even higher along with software evolution due to the inconsistence occurred by changes and inherent errors of software products. It is better to build up a robust software product that can sustain changes as many as possible. Therefore, this paper proposes a process algebra based hierarchical framework to extract an abstract equivalent of deliverable at the end of phases of a software product from its software development models. The process algebra equivalent of the deliverable is developed hierarchically with the development of the software product, applying bi-simulation to test run the deliverable of phases to guarantee the consistence and integrity of the software development and product in a trivially mathematical way. And an algorithm is also given to carry out the assessment of the phase deliverable in process algebra.  

  5. C-HiLasso: A Collaborative Hierarchical Sparse Modeling Framework

    CERN Document Server

    Sprechmann, Pablo; Sapiro, Guillermo; Eldar, Yonina

    2010-01-01

    Sparse modeling is a powerful framework for data analysis and processing. Traditionally, encoding in this framework is performed by solving an L1-regularized linear regression problem, commonly referred to as Lasso or Basis Pursuit. In this work we combine the sparsity-inducing property of the Lasso model at the individual feature level, with the block-sparsity property of the Group Lasso model, where sparse groups of features are jointly encoded, obtaining a sparsity pattern hierarchically structured. This results in the Hierarchical Lasso (HiLasso), which shows important practical modeling advantages. We then extend this approach to the collaborative case, where a set of simultaneously coded signals share the same sparsity pattern at the higher (group) level, but not necessarily at the lower (inside the group) level, obtaining the collaborative HiLasso model (C-HiLasso). Such signals then share the same active groups, or classes, but not necessarily the same active set. This model is very well suited for ap...

  6. o-HETM: An Online Hierarchical Entity Topic Model for News Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-22

    Cao et al. (Eds.): PAKDD 2015, Part I, LNAI 9077, pp. 696–707, 2015. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-18038-0 54 o-HETM: An Online Hierarchical Entity Topic... 2004 ) o-HETM: An Online Hierarchical Entity Topic Model for News Streams 707 6. Mimno, D., Li, W., McCallum, A.: Mixtures of hierarchical topics with

  7. A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.

    2013-01-01

    Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the

  8. About wave field modeling in hierarchic medium with fractal inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachay, Olga; Khachay, Andrey

    2014-05-01

    The processes of oil gaseous deposits outworking are linked with moving of polyphase multicomponent media, which are characterized by no equilibrium and nonlinear rheological features. The real behavior of layered systems is defined as complicated rheology moving liquids and structural morphology of porous media. It is eargently needed to account those factors for substantial description of the filtration processes. Additionally we must account also the synergetic effects. That allows suggesting new methods of control and managing of complicated natural systems, which can research these effects. Thus our research is directed to the layered system, from which we have to outwork oil and which is a complicated hierarchic dynamical system with fractal inclusions. In that paper we suggest the algorithm of modeling of 2-d seismic field distribution in the heterogeneous medium with hierarchic inclusions. Also we can compare the integral 2-D for seismic field in a frame of local hierarchic heterogeneity with a porous inclusion and pure elastic inclusion for the case when the parameter Lame is equal to zero for the inclusions and the layered structure. For that case we can regard the problem for the latitude and longitudinal waves independently. Here we shall analyze the first case. The received results can be used for choosing criterions of joined seismic methods for high complicated media research.If the boundaries of the inclusion of the k rank are fractals, the surface and contour integrals in the integral equations must be changed to repeated fractional integrals of Riman-Liuvill type .Using the developed earlier 3-d method of induction electromagnetic frequency geometric monitoring we showed the opportunity of defining of physical and structural features of hierarchic oil layer structure and estimating of water saturating by crack inclusions. For visualization we had elaborated some algorithms and programs for constructing cross sections for two hierarchic structural

  9. Linguistic steganography on Twitter: hierarchical language modeling with manual interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Alex; Blunsom, Phil; Ker, Andrew D.

    2014-02-01

    This work proposes a natural language stegosystem for Twitter, modifying tweets as they are written to hide 4 bits of payload per tweet, which is a greater payload than previous systems have achieved. The system, CoverTweet, includes novel components, as well as some already developed in the literature. We believe that the task of transforming covers during embedding is equivalent to unilingual machine translation (paraphrasing), and we use this equivalence to de ne a distortion measure based on statistical machine translation methods. The system incorporates this measure of distortion to rank possible tweet paraphrases, using a hierarchical language model; we use human interaction as a second distortion measure to pick the best. The hierarchical language model is designed to model the speci c language of the covers, which in this setting is the language of the Twitter user who is embedding. This is a change from previous work, where general-purpose language models have been used. We evaluate our system by testing the output against human judges, and show that humans are unable to distinguish stego tweets from cover tweets any better than random guessing.

  10. Finite Population Correction for Two-Level Hierarchical Linear Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Mark H C; Kwok, Oi-Man; Hsiao, Yu-Yu; Cao, Qian

    2017-03-16

    The research literature has paid little attention to the issue of finite population at a higher level in hierarchical linear modeling. In this article, we propose a method to obtain finite-population-adjusted standard errors of Level-1 and Level-2 fixed effects in 2-level hierarchical linear models. When the finite population at Level-2 is incorrectly assumed as being infinite, the standard errors of the fixed effects are overestimated, resulting in lower statistical power and wider confidence intervals. The impact of ignoring finite population correction is illustrated by using both a real data example and a simulation study with a random intercept model and a random slope model. Simulation results indicated that the bias in the unadjusted fixed-effect standard errors was substantial when the Level-2 sample size exceeded 10% of the Level-2 population size; the bias increased with a larger intraclass correlation, a larger number of clusters, and a larger average cluster size. We also found that the proposed adjustment produced unbiased standard errors, particularly when the number of clusters was at least 30 and the average cluster size was at least 10. We encourage researchers to consider the characteristics of the target population for their studies and adjust for finite population when appropriate. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Modelling localised fracture of reinforced concrete structures

    OpenAIRE

    Liao, F; Huang, Z.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a robust finite element procedure for simulating the localised fracture of reinforced concrete members. In this new model the concrete member is modelled as an assembly of plain concrete, reinforcing steel bar and bond-link elements. The 4-node quadrilateral elements are used for 2D modelling of plain concrete elements, in which the extended finite element method is adopted to simulate the formation and growth of individual cracks. The reinforcing steel bars are modelled b...

  12. A Hierarchical Model for Continuous Gesture Recognition Using Kinect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Søren Kejser; Moesgaard, Christoffer; Nielsen, Christoffer Samuel

    2013-01-01

    Human gesture recognition is an area, which has been studied thoroughly in recent years,and close to100% recognition rates in restricted environments have been achieved, often either with single separated gestures in the input stream, or with computationally intensive systems. The results...... are unfortunately not as striking, when it comes to a continuous stream of gestures. In this paper we introduce a hierarchical system for gesture recognition for use in a gaming setting, with a continuous stream of data. Layer 1 is based on Nearest Neighbor Search and layer 2 uses Hidden Markov Models. The system...

  13. Dynamical Properties of Potassium Ion Channels with a Hierarchical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAN Yong; AN Hai-Long; YU Hui; ZHANG Su-Hua; HAN Ying-Rong

    2006-01-01

    @@ It is well known that potassium ion channels have higher permeability than K ions, and the permeable rate of a single K ion channel is about 108 ions per second. We develop a hierarchical model of potassium ion channel permeation involving ab initio quantum calculations and Brownian dynamics simulations, which can consistently explain a range of channel dynamics. The results show that the average velocity of K ions, the mean permeable time of K ions and the permeable rate of single channel are about 0.92nm/ns, 4.35ns and 2.30×108 ions/s,respectively.

  14. Hierarchical Stochastic Simulation Algorithm for SBML Models of Genetic Circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro eWatanabe

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a hierarchical stochastic simulation algorithm which has been implemented within iBioSim, a tool used to model, analyze, and visualize genetic circuits. Many biological analysis tools flatten out hierarchy before simulation, but there are many disadvantages associated with this approach. First, the memory required to represent the model can quickly expand in the process. Second, the flattening process is computationally expensive. Finally, when modeling a dynamic cellular population within iBioSim, inlining the hierarchy of the model is inefficient since models must grow dynamically over time. This paper discusses a new approach to handle hierarchy on the fly to make the tool faster and more memory-efficient. This approach yields significant performance improvements as compared to the former flat analysis method.

  15. A Hierarchical Model Architecture for Enterprise Integration in Chemical Industries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    华贲; 周章玉; 成思危

    2001-01-01

    Towards integration of supply chain, manufacturing/production and investment decision making, this paper presents a hierarchical model architecture which contains six sub-models covering the areas of manufacturing control, production operation, design and revamp, production management, supply chain and investment decision making. Six types of flow, material, energy, information, humanware, partsware and capital are ciasified. These flows connect enterprise components/subsystems to formulate system topology and logical structure. Enterprise components/subsystems are abstracted to generic elementary and composite classes. Finally, the model architecture is applied to a management system of an integrated suply chain, and suggestion are made on the usage of the model architecture and further development of the model as well as imvlementation issues.

  16. Hierarchical Model for the Evolution of Cloud Complexes

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez, N; Sanchez, Nestor; Parravano, Antonio

    1999-01-01

    The structure of cloud complexes appears to be well described by a "tree structure" representation when the image is partitioned into "clouds". In this representation, the parent-child relationships are assigned according to containment. Based on this picture, a hierarchical model for the evolution of Cloud Complexes, including star formation, is constructed, that follows the mass evolution of each sub-structure by computing its mass exchange (evaporation or condensation) with its parent and children, which depends on the radiation density at the interphase. For the set of parameters used as a reference model, the system produces IMFs with a maximum at too high mass (~2 M_sun) and the characteristic times for evolution seem too long. We show that these properties can be improved by adjusting model parameters. However, the emphasis here is to illustrate some general properties of this nonlinear model for the star formation process. Notwithstanding the simplifications involved, the model reveals an essential fe...

  17. Fractured-basement reservoir modeling using continuous fracture modeling (CFM) method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isniarny, Nadya; Haris, Abdul; Nurdin, Safrizal

    2016-02-01

    The challenge in oil and gas exploration has now shifted due to increasingly difficult to get back up economic value in a conventional reservoir. Explorationist are developing various drilling technology, optimizing conventional reserves and unconventional reserve in reservoirs. One of the unconventional reservoir that has been developed is the basement reservoir. This rock type has no primary porosity and the permeability of the rocks of this type are generally influenced by the naturally fracture networks. The purpose of this study is to map the fracture intensity distribution in the basement reservoir using Continuous Fracture Modeling (CFM) method. CFM method applies the basic concepts of neural network in finding a relationship between well data with seismic data in order to build a model of fracture intensity. The Formation Micro Imager (FMI) interpretation data is used to identify the presence of fracture along the well as dip angle and dip azimuth. This indicator will be laterally populated in 3D grid model. Several seismic attribute which are generated from seismic data is used as a guidance to populate fracture intensity in the model. The results from the model were validated with Drill Stem Test (DST) data. Zones of high fracture intensity on the model correlates positively with the presence of fluid in accordance with DST data.

  18. Modeling contaminant plumes in fractured limestone aquifers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosthaf, Klaus; Brauns, Bentje; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann

    the established approaches of the equivalent porous medium, discrete fracture and dual continuum models. However, these modeling concepts are not well tested for contaminant plume migration in limestone geologies. Our goal was to develop and evaluate approaches for modeling the transport of dissolved contaminant...... in the planning of field tests and to update the conceptual model in an iterative process. Field data includes information on spill history, distribution of the contaminant (multilevel sampling), geology and hydrogeology. To describe the geology and fracture system, data from borehole logs, packer tests, optical...... distribution in the aquifer. Different models were used for the planning and interpretation of the pump and tracer test. The models were evaluated by examining their ability to describe collected field data. The comparison with data showed that the models have substantially different representations...

  19. Spatial Bayesian hierarchical modelling of extreme sea states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clancy, Colm; O'Sullivan, John; Sweeney, Conor; Dias, Frédéric; Parnell, Andrew C.

    2016-11-01

    A Bayesian hierarchical framework is used to model extreme sea states, incorporating a latent spatial process to more effectively capture the spatial variation of the extremes. The model is applied to a 34-year hindcast of significant wave height off the west coast of Ireland. The generalised Pareto distribution is fitted to declustered peaks over a threshold given by the 99.8th percentile of the data. Return levels of significant wave height are computed and compared against those from a model based on the commonly-used maximum likelihood inference method. The Bayesian spatial model produces smoother maps of return levels. Furthermore, this approach greatly reduces the uncertainty in the estimates, thus providing information on extremes which is more useful for practical applications.

  20. Inference in HIV dynamics models via hierarchical likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    Commenges, D; Putter, H; Thiebaut, R

    2010-01-01

    HIV dynamical models are often based on non-linear systems of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which do not have analytical solution. Introducing random effects in such models leads to very challenging non-linear mixed-effects models. To avoid the numerical computation of multiple integrals involved in the likelihood, we propose a hierarchical likelihood (h-likelihood) approach, treated in the spirit of a penalized likelihood. We give the asymptotic distribution of the maximum h-likelihood estimators (MHLE) for fixed effects, a result that may be relevant in a more general setting. The MHLE are slightly biased but the bias can be made negligible by using a parametric bootstrap procedure. We propose an efficient algorithm for maximizing the h-likelihood. A simulation study, based on a classical HIV dynamical model, confirms the good properties of the MHLE. We apply it to the analysis of a clinical trial.

  1. [A medical image semantic modeling based on hierarchical Bayesian networks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chunyi; Ma, Lihong; Yin, Junxun; Chen, Jianyu

    2009-04-01

    A semantic modeling approach for medical image semantic retrieval based on hierarchical Bayesian networks was proposed, in allusion to characters of medical images. It used GMM (Gaussian mixture models) to map low-level image features into object semantics with probabilities, then it captured high-level semantics through fusing these object semantics using a Bayesian network, so that it built a multi-layer medical image semantic model, aiming to enable automatic image annotation and semantic retrieval by using various keywords at different semantic levels. As for the validity of this method, we have built a multi-level semantic model from a small set of astrocytoma MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) samples, in order to extract semantics of astrocytoma in malignant degree. Experiment results show that this is a superior approach.

  2. Item Response Theory Using Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamdollah Ravand

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Multilevel models (MLMs are flexible in that they can be employed to obtain item and person parameters, test for differential item functioning (DIF and capture both local item and person dependence. Papers on the MLM analysis of item response data have focused mostly on theoretical issues where applications have been add-ons to simulation studies with a methodological focus. Although the methodological direction was necessary as a first step to show how MLMs can be utilized and extended to model item response data, the emphasis needs to be shifted towards providing evidence on how applications of MLMs in educational testing can provide the benefits that have been promised. The present study uses foreign language reading comprehension data to illustrate application of hierarchical generalized models to estimate person and item parameters, differential item functioning (DIF, and local person dependence in a three-level model.

  3. A Maximum Entropy Estimator for the Aggregate Hierarchical Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Donoso

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A new approach for estimating the aggregate hierarchical logit model is presented. Though usually derived from random utility theory assuming correlated stochastic errors, the model can also be derived as a solution to a maximum entropy problem. Under the latter approach, the Lagrange multipliers of the optimization problem can be understood as parameter estimators of the model. Based on theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of a transportation demand model, it is demonstrated that the maximum entropy estimators have statistical properties that are superior to classical maximum likelihood estimators, particularly for small or medium-size samples. The simulations also generated reduced bias in the estimates of the subjective value of time and consumer surplus.

  4. A Spatial Clustering Approach for Stochastic Fracture Network Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifollahi, S.; Dowd, P. A.; Xu, C.; Fadakar, A. Y.

    2014-07-01

    Fracture network modelling plays an important role in many application areas in which the behaviour of a rock mass is of interest. These areas include mining, civil, petroleum, water and environmental engineering and geothermal systems modelling. The aim is to model the fractured rock to assess fluid flow or the stability of rock blocks. One important step in fracture network modelling is to estimate the number of fractures and the properties of individual fractures such as their size and orientation. Due to the lack of data and the complexity of the problem, there are significant uncertainties associated with fracture network modelling in practice. Our primary interest is the modelling of fracture networks in geothermal systems and, in this paper, we propose a general stochastic approach to fracture network modelling for this application. We focus on using the seismic point cloud detected during the fracture stimulation of a hot dry rock reservoir to create an enhanced geothermal system; these seismic points are the conditioning data in the modelling process. The seismic points can be used to estimate the geographical extent of the reservoir, the amount of fracturing and the detailed geometries of fractures within the reservoir. The objective is to determine a fracture model from the conditioning data by minimizing the sum of the distances of the points from the fitted fracture model. Fractures are represented as line segments connecting two points in two-dimensional applications or as ellipses in three-dimensional (3D) cases. The novelty of our model is twofold: (1) it comprises a comprehensive fracture modification scheme based on simulated annealing and (2) it introduces new spatial approaches, a goodness-of-fit measure for the fitted fracture model, a measure for fracture similarity and a clustering technique for proposing a locally optimal solution for fracture parameters. We use a simulated dataset to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach

  5. Compartmentalization analysis using discrete fracture network models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Pointe, P.R.; Eiben, T.; Dershowitz, W. [Golder Associates, Redmond, VA (United States); Wadleigh, E. [Marathon Oil Co., Midland, TX (United States)

    1997-08-01

    This paper illustrates how Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) technology can serve as a basis for the calculation of reservoir engineering parameters for the development of fractured reservoirs. It describes the development of quantitative techniques for defining the geometry and volume of structurally controlled compartments. These techniques are based on a combination of stochastic geometry, computational geometry, and graph the theory. The parameters addressed are compartment size, matrix block size and tributary drainage volume. The concept of DFN models is explained and methodologies to compute these parameters are demonstrated.

  6. Ongoing Model Development Analyzing Glass Fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molnar, G.; Bojtar, I.; Nielsen, Jens Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Present subject deals with an ongoing experimental and numerical analysis of inplane loaded glass plates. The main goal of the investigation is to develop a hybrid – discrete and finite element – model which could follow the fracture process in annealed and in tempered glass. Measurements...

  7. Ongoing Model Development Analyzing Glass Fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molnar, G.; Bojtar, I.; Nielsen, Jens Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Present subject deals with an ongoing experimental and numerical analysis of inplane loaded glass plates. The main goal of the investigation is to develop a hybrid – discrete and finite element – model which could follow the fracture process in annealed and in tempered glass. Measurements...... an overview of the structure of the research and a summary of current status archived so far....

  8. A hierarchical model of the evolution of human brain specializations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, H Clark

    2012-06-26

    The study of information-processing adaptations in the brain is controversial, in part because of disputes about the form such adaptations might take. Many psychologists assume that adaptations come in two kinds, specialized and general-purpose. Specialized mechanisms are typically thought of as innate, domain-specific, and isolated from other brain systems, whereas generalized mechanisms are developmentally plastic, domain-general, and interactive. However, if brain mechanisms evolve through processes of descent with modification, they are likely to be heterogeneous, rather than coming in just two kinds. They are likely to be hierarchically organized, with some design features widely shared across brain systems and others specific to particular processes. Also, they are likely to be largely developmentally plastic and interactive with other brain systems, rather than canalized and isolated. This article presents a hierarchical model of brain specialization, reviewing evidence for the model from evolutionary developmental biology, genetics, brain mapping, and comparative studies. Implications for the search for uniquely human traits are discussed, along with ways in which conventional views of modularity in psychology may need to be revised.

  9. Study of hierarchical federation architecture using multi-resolution modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO Yan-ling; SHEN Dong-hui; QIAN Hua-ming; DENG Ming-hui

    2004-01-01

    This paper aims at finding a solution to the problem aroused in complex system simulation, where a specific functional federation is coupled with other simulation systems. In other words, the communication information within the system may be received by other federates that participated in this united simulation. For the purpose of ensuring simulation system unitary character, a hierarchical federation architecture (HFA) is taken. Also considering the real situation, where federates in a complicated simulation system can be made simpler to an extent, a multi-resolution modeling (MRM) method is imported to implement the design of hierarchical federation. By utilizing the multiple resolution entity (MRE) modeling approach, MRE for federates are designed out. When different level training simulation is required, the appropriate MRE at corresponding layers can be called. The design method realizes the reuse feature of the simulation system and reduces simulation complexity and improves the validity of system Simulation Cost (SC). Taking submarine voyage training simulator (SVTS) for instance, a HFA for submarine is constructed inthis paper, which approves the feasibility of studied approach.

  10. A stochastic model for detecting overlapping and hierarchical community structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochun Cao

    Full Text Available Community detection is a fundamental problem in the analysis of complex networks. Recently, many researchers have concentrated on the detection of overlapping communities, where a vertex may belong to more than one community. However, most current methods require the number (or the size of the communities as a priori information, which is usually unavailable in real-world networks. Thus, a practical algorithm should not only find the overlapping community structure, but also automatically determine the number of communities. Furthermore, it is preferable if this method is able to reveal the hierarchical structure of networks as well. In this work, we firstly propose a generative model that employs a nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF formulization with a l(2,1 norm regularization term, balanced by a resolution parameter. The NMF has the nature that provides overlapping community structure by assigning soft membership variables to each vertex; the l(2,1 regularization term is a technique of group sparsity which can automatically determine the number of communities by penalizing too many nonempty communities; and hence the resolution parameter enables us to explore the hierarchical structure of networks. Thereafter, we derive the multiplicative update rule to learn the model parameters, and offer the proof of its correctness. Finally, we test our approach on a variety of synthetic and real-world networks, and compare it with some state-of-the-art algorithms. The results validate the superior performance of our new method.

  11. The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Semi-Markov Model

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Matthew J

    2012-01-01

    There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are undesirable, particularly if we wish to learn or encode non-geometric state durations. We can extend the HDP-HMM to capture such structure by drawing upon explicit-duration semi- Markovianity, which has been developed in the parametric setting to allow construction of highly interpretable models that admit natural prior information on state durations. In this paper we introduce the explicitduration HDP-HSMM and develop posterior sampling algorithms for efficient inference in both the direct-assignment and weak-limit approximation settings. We demonstrate the utility of the model and our inference methods on synthetic data as well as experiments on a speaker diarization problem and an example of learning the patterns in Morse code.

  12. Learning Hierarchical User Interest Models from Web Pages

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    We propose an algorithm for learning hierarchical user interest models according to the Web pages users have browsed. In this algorithm, the interests of a user are represented into a tree which is called a user interest tree, the content and the structure of which can change simultaneously to adapt to the changes in a user's interests. This expression represents a user's specific and general interests as a continuum. In some sense, specific interests correspond to short-term interests, while general interests correspond to long-term interests. So this representation more really reflects the users' interests. The algorithm can automatically model a user's multiple interest domains, dynamically generate the interest models and prune a user interest tree when the number of the nodes in it exceeds given value. Finally, we show the experiment results in a Chinese Web Site.

  13. Multi-mode clustering model for hierarchical wireless sensor networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiangdong; Li, Yongfu; Xu, Huifen

    2017-03-01

    The topology management, i.e., clusters maintenance, of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is still a challenge due to its numerous nodes, diverse application scenarios and limited resources as well as complex dynamics. To address this issue, a multi-mode clustering model (M2 CM) is proposed to maintain the clusters for hierarchical WSNs in this study. In particular, unlike the traditional time-trigger model based on the whole-network and periodic style, the M2 CM is proposed based on the local and event-trigger operations. In addition, an adaptive local maintenance algorithm is designed for the broken clusters in the WSNs using the spatial-temporal demand changes accordingly. Numerical experiments are performed using the NS2 network simulation platform. Results validate the effectiveness of the proposed model with respect to the network maintenance costs, node energy consumption and transmitted data as well as the network lifetime.

  14. Modeling of flow in faulted and fractured media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeian, Erlend

    2004-03-01

    . Thus, the main purpose of this chapter is to go into more details on the various parameters and derivations compared to the papers. Details of the ATHENA simulator is presented in Chapt. 3, including both earlier and recent additions. The main focus of this chapter is on code development issues like platform portability, 'safe' parallel programming and general improvements. Due to the code specific details, the content of this paper is for the most part not covered in the Part II papers. Chapt. 4 includes the domain decomposition framework and details on the parallel implementation. Based on the fault modeling aspects introduced in Chapt. 1, a brief review of existing numerical fracture flow techniques are given in Chapt. 5. Also, a hierarchical approach for including fractures at different scales within the ATHENA simulator is given here. This includes both discretization issues and methods for up scaling. After summary and conclusions in Chapt. 6, Part I ends with Chapt. 7 including suggestions on further work within the ATHENA simulator framework in particular and on numerical techniques for fractured porous media flow in general.

  15. An XFEM Model for Hydraulic Fracturing in Partially Saturated Rocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salimzadeh Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic fracturing is a complex multi-physics phenomenon. Numerous analytical and numerical models of hydraulic fracturing processes have been proposed. Analytical solutions commonly are able to model the growth of a single hydraulic fracture into an initially intact, homogeneous rock mass. Numerical models are able to analyse complex problems such as multiple hydraulic fractures and fracturing in heterogeneous media. However, majority of available models are restricted to single-phase flow through fracture and permeable porous rock. This is not compatible with actual field conditions where the injected fluid does not have similar properties as the host fluid. In this study we present a fully coupled hydro-poroelastic model which incorporates two fluids i.e. fracturing fluid and host fluid. Flow through fracture is defined based on lubrication assumption, while flow through matrix is defined as Darcy flow. The fracture discontinuity in the mechanical model is captured using eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM while the fracture propagation criterion is defined through cohesive fracture model. The discontinuous matrix fluid velocity across fracture is modelled using leak-off loading which couples fracture flow and matrix flow. The proposed model has been discretised using standard Galerkin method, implemented in Matlab and verified against several published solutions. Multiple hydraulic fracturing simulations are performed to show the model robustness and to illustrate how problem parameters such as injection rate and rock permeability affect the hydraulic fracturing variables i.e. injection pressure, fracture aperture and fracture length. The results show the impact of partial saturation on leak-off and the fact that single-phase models may underestimate the leak-off.

  16. Modeling evolutionary dynamics of epigenetic mutations in hierarchically organized tumors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Sottoriva

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The cancer stem cell (CSC concept is a highly debated topic in cancer research. While experimental evidence in favor of the cancer stem cell theory is apparently abundant, the results are often criticized as being difficult to interpret. An important reason for this is that most experimental data that support this model rely on transplantation studies. In this study we use a novel cellular Potts model to elucidate the dynamics of established malignancies that are driven by a small subset of CSCs. Our results demonstrate that epigenetic mutations that occur during mitosis display highly altered dynamics in CSC-driven malignancies compared to a classical, non-hierarchical model of growth. In particular, the heterogeneity observed in CSC-driven tumors is considerably higher. We speculate that this feature could be used in combination with epigenetic (methylation sequencing studies of human malignancies to prove or refute the CSC hypothesis in established tumors without the need for transplantation. Moreover our tumor growth simulations indicate that CSC-driven tumors display evolutionary features that can be considered beneficial during tumor progression. Besides an increased heterogeneity they also exhibit properties that allow the escape of clones from local fitness peaks. This leads to more aggressive phenotypes in the long run and makes the neoplasm more adaptable to stringent selective forces such as cancer treatment. Indeed when therapy is applied the clone landscape of the regrown tumor is more aggressive with respect to the primary tumor, whereas the classical model demonstrated similar patterns before and after therapy. Understanding these often counter-intuitive fundamental properties of (non-hierarchically organized malignancies is a crucial step in validating the CSC concept as well as providing insight into the therapeutical consequences of this model.

  17. Research and application of hierarchical model for multiple fault diagnosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    An Ruoming; Jiang Xingwei; Song Zhengji

    2005-01-01

    Computational complexity of complex system multiple fault diagnosis is a puzzle at all times. Based on the well-known Mozetic's approach, a novel hierarchical model-based diagnosis methodology is put forward for improving efficiency of multi-fault recognition and localization. Structural abstraction and weighted fault propagation graphs are combined to build diagnosis model. The graphs have weighted arcs with fault propagation probabilities and propagation strength. For solving the problem of coupled faults, two diagnosis strategies are used: one is the Lagrangian relaxation and the primal heuristic algorithms; another is the method of propagation strength. Finally, an applied example shows the applicability of the approach and experimental results are given to show the superiority of the presented technique.

  18. Hierarchical population model with a carrying capacity distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Indekeu, J O

    2002-01-01

    A time- and space-discrete model for the growth of a rapidly saturating local biological population $N(x,t)$ is derived from a hierarchical random deposition process previously studied in statistical physics. Two biologically relevant parameters, the probabilities of birth, $B$, and of death, $D$, determine the carrying capacity $K$. Due to the randomness the population depends strongly on position, $x$, and there is a distribution of carrying capacities, $\\Pi (K)$. This distribution has self-similar character owing to the imposed hierarchy. The most probable carrying capacity and its probability are studied as a function of $B$ and $D$. The effective growth rate decreases with time, roughly as in a Verhulst process. The model is possibly applicable, for example, to bacteria forming a "towering pillar" biofilm. The bacteria divide on randomly distributed nutrient-rich regions and are exposed to random local bactericidal agent (antibiotic spray). A gradual overall temperature change away from optimal growth co...

  19. Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...

  20. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of weak lensing - the golden goal

    CERN Document Server

    Heavens, Alan; Jaffe, Andrew; Hoffmann, Till; Kiessling, Alina; Wandelt, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    To accomplish correct Bayesian inference from weak lensing shear data requires a complete statistical description of the data. The natural framework to do this is a Bayesian Hierarchical Model, which divides the chain of reasoning into component steps. Starting with a catalogue of shear estimates in tomographic bins, we build a model that allows us to sample simultaneously from the the underlying tomographic shear fields and the relevant power spectra (E-mode, B-mode, and E-B, for auto- and cross-power spectra). The procedure deals easily with masked data and intrinsic alignments. Using Gibbs sampling and messenger fields, we show with simulated data that the large (over 67000-)dimensional parameter space can be efficiently sampled and the full joint posterior probability density function for the parameters can feasibly be obtained. The method correctly recovers the underlying shear fields and all of the power spectra, including at levels well below the shot noise.

  1. Hydrofracture Modeling Using Discrete Fracture Network in Barnett Shale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghoubi, A.; Zoback, M. D.

    2012-12-01

    Shale gas has become an important source of unconventional reservoir in the united state over the past decade. Since the shale gas formations are impermeable, hydraulic fracturing from vertical and horizontal well are commonly approach to extract natural gas deposit from these unconventional sources. Hydraulic fracturing has been a successful and relatively inexpensive stimulation method for stimulation and enhances hydrocarbon recovery. Multistage hydro fracturing treatments in horizontal well creates a large stimulated reservoir volume. However, modeling hydraulic fracturing requires to prior knowledge of natural fracture network. This problem can be deal with Discrete Fracture network modeling. The objective of this study is first to model discrete fracture network and then simulate hydro-fracturing in five horizontal well of a case study in Barnett shale gas reservoir. In the case study, five horizontal wells have been drilled in Barnett shale gas reservoir in which each of them has 10 stages of hydro-fracturing stimulation. Of all five wells, just well C has a full comprehensive logging data. Fracture date detected using FMI image log of well C for building DFN model are associated with different sources of uncertainty; orientation, density and length. After building reservoir geomechanics model and detecting natural fracture form image log from well C, DFN model has built based on fracture parameters, orientation, intensity, shape size and permeability detected from image log and core data. Modeling hydrofractuing in five wells are consistent with critically stressed-fracture and micro-seismic events.

  2. a Fractal Network Model for Fractured Porous Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Peng; Li, Cuihong; Qiu, Shuxia; Sasmito, Agus Pulung

    2016-04-01

    The transport properties and mechanisms of fractured porous media are very important for oil and gas reservoir engineering, hydraulics, environmental science, chemical engineering, etc. In this paper, a fractal dual-porosity model is developed to estimate the equivalent hydraulic properties of fractured porous media, where a fractal tree-like network model is used to characterize the fracture system according to its fractal scaling laws and topological structures. The analytical expressions for the effective permeability of fracture system and fractured porous media, tortuosity, fracture density and fraction are derived. The proposed fractal model has been validated by comparisons with available experimental data and numerical simulation. It has been shown that fractal dimensions for fracture length and aperture have significant effect on the equivalent hydraulic properties of fractured porous media. The effective permeability of fracture system can be increased with the increase of fractal dimensions for fracture length and aperture, while it can be remarkably lowered by introducing tortuosity at large branching angle. Also, a scaling law between the fracture density and fractal dimension for fracture length has been found, where the scaling exponent depends on the fracture number. The present fractal dual-porosity model may shed light on the transport physics of fractured porous media and provide theoretical basis for oil and gas exploitation, underground water, nuclear waste disposal and geothermal energy extraction as well as chemical engineering, etc.

  3. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  4. Numerical simulation of hydraulic fracturing using a three-dimensional fracture model coupled with an adaptive mesh fluid model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xiang, G.L.; Vire, A.; Pavlidis, D.; Pain, C.

    2015-01-01

    A three-dimensional fracture model developed in the context of the combined finite-discrete element method is incorporated into a two-way fluid-solid coupling model. The fracture model is capable of simulating the whole fracturing process. It includes pre-peak hardening deformation, post-peak strain

  5. COHESIVE ZONE FINITE ELEMENT-BASED MODELING OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zuorong Chen; A.P. Bunger; Xi Zhang; Robert G. Jeffrey

    2009-01-01

    Hydraulic fracturing is a powerful technology used to stimulate fluid production from reservoirs. The fully 3-D numerical simulation of the hydraulic fracturing process is of great importance to the efficient application of this technology, but is also a great challenge because of the strong nonlinear coupling between the viscous flow of fluid and fracture propagation. By taking advantage of a cohesive zone method to simulate the fracture process, a finite element model based on the existing pore pressure cohesive finite elements has been established to investigate the propagation of a penny-shaped hydraulic fracture in an infinite elastic medium. The effect of cohesive material parameters and fluid viscosity on the hydraulic fracture behaviour has been investigated. Excellent agreement between the finite element results and analytical solutions for the limiting case where the fracture process is dominated by rock fracture toughness demonstrates the ability of the cohesive zone finite element model in simulating the hydraulic fracture growth for this case.

  6. Note on the equivalence of hierarchical variational models and auxiliary deep generative models

    OpenAIRE

    Brümmer, Niko

    2016-01-01

    This note compares two recently published machine learning methods for constructing flexible, but tractable families of variational hidden-variable posteriors. The first method, called "hierarchical variational models" enriches the inference model with an extra variable, while the other, called "auxiliary deep generative models", enriches the generative model instead. We conclude that the two methods are mathematically equivalent.

  7. Streaming potential modeling in fractured rock: Insights into the identification of hydraulically active fractures

    CERN Document Server

    Roubinet, D; Jougnot, D; Irving, J

    2016-01-01

    Numerous field experiments suggest that the self-potential (SP) geophysical method may allow for the detection of hydraulically active fractures and provide information about fracture properties. However, a lack of suitable numerical tools for modeling streaming potentials in fractured media prevents quantitative interpretation and limits our understanding of how the SP method can be used in this regard. To address this issue, we present a highly efficient two-dimensional discrete-dual-porosity approach for solving the fluid flow and associated self-potential problems in fractured rock. Our approach is specifically designed for complex fracture networks that cannot be investigated using standard numerical methods. We then simulate SP signals associated with pumping conditions for a number of examples to show that (i) accounting for matrix fluid flow is essential for accurate SP modeling and (ii) the sensitivity of SP to hydraulically active fractures is intimately linked with fracture-matrix fluid interaction...

  8. Improve Query Performance On Hierarchical Data. Adjacency List Model Vs. Nested Set Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia Gyorödi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Hierarchical data are found in a variety of database applications, including content management categories, forums, business organization charts, and product categories. In this paper, we will examine two models deal with hierarchical data in relational databases namely, adjacency list model and nested set model. We analysed these models by executing various operations and queries in a web-application for the management of categories, thus highlighting the results obtained during performance comparison tests. The purpose of this paper is to present the advantages and disadvantages of using an adjacency list model compared to nested set model in a relational database integrated into an application for the management of categories, which needs to manipulate a big amount of hierarchical data.

  9. Dynamic model of normal behavior of rock fractures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Wen-yi; KONG Guang-ya; CAI Jun-gang

    2005-01-01

    Based on laboratory tests of artificial fractures in mortar material, established the dynamic constitutive model of normal behaviour of rock fracture,. The tests were systematically conducted under quasi-static and dynamic monotonic loading conditions. The fractures were of different numbers of asperities in contact and were subsequently of different initial contact areas, which imitated the natural rock fractures. The rate of compressive load applied normal to the fractures covers a wide range from 10-1 MPa/s (quasi-static) up to 103 MPa/s (highly dynamic). The normal stress-closure responses of fractures were measured for different loading rates. Based on the stress-closure relation curves measured, a nonlinear (hyperbolic) dynamic model of fracture, normal behaviour, termed as dynamic BB model, was proposed, which was modified from the existing BB model of static normal behaviour of fractures by taking into account the effect of loading rate.

  10. Bonded-cell model for particle fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Duc-Hanh; Azéma, Emilien; Sornay, Philippe; Radjai, Farhang

    2015-02-01

    Particle degradation and fracture play an important role in natural granular flows and in many applications of granular materials. We analyze the fracture properties of two-dimensional disklike particles modeled as aggregates of rigid cells bonded along their sides by a cohesive Mohr-Coulomb law and simulated by the contact dynamics method. We show that the compressive strength scales with tensile strength between cells but depends also on the friction coefficient and a parameter describing cell shape distribution. The statistical scatter of compressive strength is well described by the Weibull distribution function with a shape parameter varying from 6 to 10 depending on cell shape distribution. We show that this distribution may be understood in terms of percolating critical intercellular contacts. We propose a random-walk model of critical contacts that leads to particle size dependence of the compressive strength in good agreement with our simulation data.

  11. GSMNet: A Hierarchical Graph Model for Moving Objects in Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hengcai Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Existing data models for moving objects in networks are often limited by flexibly controlling the granularity of representing networks and the cost of location updates and do not encompass semantic information, such as traffic states, traffic restrictions and social relationships. In this paper, we aim to fill the gap of traditional network-constrained models and propose a hierarchical graph model called the Geo-Social-Moving model for moving objects in Networks (GSMNet that adopts four graph structures, RouteGraph, SegmentGraph, ObjectGraph and MoveGraph, to represent the underlying networks, trajectories and semantic information in an integrated manner. The bulk of user-defined data types and corresponding operators is proposed to handle moving objects and answer a new class of queries supporting three kinds of conditions: spatial, temporal and semantic information. Then, we develop a prototype system with the native graph database system Neo4Jto implement the proposed GSMNet model. In the experiment, we conduct the performance evaluation using simulated trajectories generated from the BerlinMOD (Berlin Moving Objects Database benchmark and compare with the mature MOD system Secondo. The results of 17 benchmark queries demonstrate that our proposed GSMNet model has strong potential to reduce time-consuming table join operations an d shows remarkable advantages with regard to representing semantic information and controlling the cost of location updates.

  12. A Bayesian hierarchical model for wind gust prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friederichs, Petra; Oesting, Marco; Schlather, Martin

    2014-05-01

    A postprocessing method for ensemble wind gust forecasts given by a mesoscale limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is presented, which is based on extreme value theory. A process layer for the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is introduced using a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Incorporating the information of the COMSO-DE forecasts, the process parameters model the spatial response surfaces of the GEV parameters as Gaussian random fields. The spatial BHM provides area wide forecasts of wind gusts in terms of a conditional GEV. It models the marginal distribution of the spatial gust process and provides not only forecasts of the conditional GEV at locations without observations, but also uncertainty information about the estimates. A disadvantages of BHM model is that it assumes conditional independent observations. In order to incorporate the dependence between gusts at neighboring locations as well as the spatial random fields of observed and forecasted maximal wind gusts, we propose to model them jointly by a bivariate Brown-Resnick process.

  13. Hierarchical modeling and its numerical implementation for layered thin elastic structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Jin-Rae [Hongik University, Sejong (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-15

    Thin elastic structures such as beam- and plate-like structures and laminates are characterized by the small thickness, which lead to classical plate and laminate theories in which the displacement fields through the thickness are assumed linear or higher-order polynomials. These classical theories are either insufficient to represent the complex stress variation through the thickness or may encounter the accuracy-computational cost dilemma. In order to overcome the inherent problem of classical theories, the concept of hierarchical modeling has been emerged. In the hierarchical modeling, the hierarchical models with different model levels are selected and combined within a structure domain, in order to make the modeling error be distributed as uniformly as possible throughout the problem domain. The purpose of current study is to explore the potential of hierarchical modeling for the effective numerical analysis of layered structures such as laminated composite. For this goal, the hierarchical models are constructed and the hierarchical modeling is implemented by selectively adjusting the level of hierarchical models. As well, the major characteristics of hierarchical models are investigated through the numerical experiments.

  14. Evolutionary optimization of a hierarchical object recognition model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Georg; Wersing, Heiko; Sendhoff, Bernhard; Körner, Edgar

    2005-06-01

    A major problem in designing artificial neural networks is the proper choice of the network architecture. Especially for vision networks classifying three-dimensional (3-D) objects this problem is very challenging, as these networks are necessarily large and therefore the search space for defining the needed networks is of a very high dimensionality. This strongly increases the chances of obtaining only suboptimal structures from standard optimization algorithms. We tackle this problem in two ways. First, we use biologically inspired hierarchical vision models to narrow the space of possible architectures and to reduce the dimensionality of the search space. Second, we employ evolutionary optimization techniques to determine optimal features and nonlinearities of the visual hierarchy. Here, we especially focus on higher order complex features in higher hierarchical stages. We compare two different approaches to perform an evolutionary optimization of these features. In the first setting, we directly code the features into the genome. In the second setting, in analogy to an ontogenetical development process, we suggest the new method of an indirect coding of the features via an unsupervised learning process, which is embedded into the evolutionary optimization. In both cases the processing nonlinearities are encoded directly into the genome and are thus subject to optimization. The fitness of the individuals for the evolutionary selection process is computed by measuring the network classification performance on a benchmark image database. Here, we use a nearest-neighbor classification approach, based on the hierarchical feature output. We compare the found solutions with respect to their ability to generalize. We differentiate between a first- and a second-order generalization. The first-order generalization denotes how well the vision system, after evolutionary optimization of the features and nonlinearities using a database A, can classify previously unseen test

  15. On the unnecessary ubiquity of hierarchical linear modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel; Stapleton, Laura M; Silverman, Rebecca D

    2017-03-01

    In psychology and the behavioral sciences generally, the use of the hierarchical linear model (HLM) and its extensions for discrete outcomes are popular methods for modeling clustered data. HLM and its discrete outcome extensions, however, are certainly not the only methods available to model clustered data. Although other methods exist and are widely implemented in other disciplines, it seems that psychologists have yet to consider these methods in substantive studies. This article compares and contrasts HLM with alternative methods including generalized estimating equations and cluster-robust standard errors. These alternative methods do not model random effects and thus make a smaller number of assumptions and are interpreted identically to single-level methods with the benefit that estimates are adjusted to reflect clustering of observations. Situations where these alternative methods may be advantageous are discussed including research questions where random effects are and are not required, when random effects can change the interpretation of regression coefficients, challenges of modeling with random effects with discrete outcomes, and examples of published psychology articles that use HLM that may have benefitted from using alternative methods. Illustrative examples are provided and discussed to demonstrate the advantages of the alternative methods and also when HLM would be the preferred method. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Plug-and-Play Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    This chapter deals with hierarchical model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierarchical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonom......This chapter deals with hierarchical model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierarchical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level...

  17. XFEM modeling of hydraulic fracture in porous rocks with natural fractures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tao; Liu, ZhanLi; Zeng, QingLei; Gao, Yue; Zhuang, Zhuo

    2017-08-01

    Hydraulic fracture (HF) in porous rocks is a complex multi-physics coupling process which involves fluid flow, diffusion and solid deformation. In this paper, the extended finite element method (XFEM) coupling with Biot theory is developed to study the HF in permeable rocks with natural fractures (NFs). In the recent XFEM based computational HF models, the fluid flow in fractures and interstitials of the porous media are mostly solved separately, which brings difficulties in dealing with complex fracture morphology. In our new model the fluid flow is solved in a unified framework by considering the fractures as a kind of special porous media and introducing Poiseuille-type flow inside them instead of Darcy-type flow. The most advantage is that it is very convenient to deal with fluid flow inside the complex fracture network, which is important in shale gas extraction. The weak formulation for the new coupled model is derived based on virtual work principle, which includes the XFEM formulation for multiple fractures and fractures intersection in porous media and finite element formulation for the unified fluid flow. Then the plane strain Kristianovic-Geertsma-de Klerk (KGD) model and the fluid flow inside the fracture network are simulated to validate the accuracy and applicability of this method. The numerical results show that large injection rate, low rock permeability and isotropic in-situ stresses tend to lead to a more uniform and productive fracture network.

  18. A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNab, Ying C

    2003-01-01

    This article presents a recent study which applies Bayesian hierarchical methodology to model and analyse accident and injury surveillance data. A hierarchical Poisson random effects spatio-temporal model is introduced and an analysis of inter-regional variations and regional trends in hospitalisations due to motor vehicle accident injuries to boys aged 0-24 in the province of British Columbia, Canada, is presented. The objective of this article is to illustrate how the modelling technique can be implemented as part of an accident and injury surveillance and prevention system where transportation and/or health authorities may routinely examine accidents, injuries, and hospitalisations to target high-risk regions for prevention programs, to evaluate prevention strategies, and to assist in health planning and resource allocation. The innovation of the methodology is its ability to uncover and highlight important underlying structure of the data. Between 1987 and 1996, British Columbia hospital separation registry registered 10,599 motor vehicle traffic injury related hospitalisations among boys aged 0-24 who resided in British Columbia, of which majority (89%) of the injuries occurred to boys aged 15-24. The injuries were aggregated by three age groups (0-4, 5-14, and 15-24), 20 health regions (based of place-of-residence), and 10 calendar years (1987 to 1996) and the corresponding mid-year population estimates were used as 'at risk' population. An empirical Bayes inference technique using penalised quasi-likelihood estimation was implemented to model both rates and counts, with spline smoothing accommodating non-linear temporal effects. The results show that (a) crude rates and ratios at health region level are unstable, (b) the models with spline smoothing enable us to explore possible shapes of injury trends at both the provincial level and the regional level, and (c) the fitted models provide a wealth of information about the patterns (both over space and time

  19. Novel Hierarchical Fall Detection Algorithm Using a Multiphase Fall Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Chia-Yeh; Liu, Kai-Chun; Huang, Chih-Ning; Chu, Woei-Chyn; Chan, Chia-Tai

    2017-01-01

    Falls are the primary cause of accidents for the elderly in the living environment. Reducing hazards in the living environment and performing exercises for training balance and muscles are the common strategies for fall prevention. However, falls cannot be avoided completely; fall detection provides an alarm that can decrease injuries or death caused by the lack of rescue. The automatic fall detection system has opportunities to provide real-time emergency alarms for improving the safety and quality of home healthcare services. Two common technical challenges are also tackled in order to provide a reliable fall detection algorithm, including variability and ambiguity. We propose a novel hierarchical fall detection algorithm involving threshold-based and knowledge-based approaches to detect a fall event. The threshold-based approach efficiently supports the detection and identification of fall events from continuous sensor data. A multiphase fall model is utilized, including free fall, impact, and rest phases for the knowledge-based approach, which identifies fall events and has the potential to deal with the aforementioned technical challenges of a fall detection system. Seven kinds of falls and seven types of daily activities arranged in an experiment are used to explore the performance of the proposed fall detection algorithm. The overall performances of the sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy using a knowledge-based algorithm are 99.79%, 98.74%, 99.05% and 99.33%, respectively. The results show that the proposed novel hierarchical fall detection algorithm can cope with the variability and ambiguity of the technical challenges and fulfill the reliability, adaptability, and flexibility requirements of an automatic fall detection system with respect to the individual differences. PMID:28208694

  20. A Fracture Mechanical Model and a Cohesive Zone Model of Interface Fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik Myhre

    2006-01-01

    A comparison between the prediction of crack propagation through an adhesive interface based on a fracture mechanics approach and a cohesive zone approach is presented. Attention is focussed on predicting the shape of the crack front and the critical stress required to propagate the crack under...... quasi-static conditions. The cohesive zone model has several advantages over the fracture mechanics based model. It is easier to generalise the cohesive zone model to take into account effects such as plastic deformation in the adherends, and to take into account effects of large local curvatures...... of the interface crack front. The comparison shows a convergence of the results based on the cohesive zone model towards the results based on a fracture mechanics approach in the limit where the size of the cohesive zone becomes smaller than other relevant geometrical lengths for the problem....

  1. Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose

    2010-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

  2. A note on adding and deleting edges in hierarchical log-linear models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edwards, David

    2012-01-01

    The operations of edge addition and deletion for hierarchical log-linear models are defined, and polynomial-time algorithms for the operations are given......The operations of edge addition and deletion for hierarchical log-linear models are defined, and polynomial-time algorithms for the operations are given...

  3. Fracture and Medium Modeling, by Analizing Hidraulic Fracturing Induced Microseismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez Alba, S.; Vargas Jiménez, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    Hydraulic fracturing is an essential technology for most unconventional hydrocarbon resources and many conventional ones as well. The primary limitation on the improvement and optimization of the fracturing process is the minimal access to observe the behavior of the fracture in the subsurface. Without direct observational evidence, hypothetical mechanisms must be assumed and then tested for their validity with indirect information such as wellbore measurements, indirect production and pressure behavior. One of the most important sources of information today is the relation made between micro seismic source mechanisms and fracture behavior. Hydraulic fractures induce some level of micro seismicity when the stress conditions in the Earth are altered by changes in stress during the operations. The result is the sudden movement between rock elements and the radiation of both compressional and shear energy in a seismic range that can be detected and recorded with sensitive receivers. The objective of this work is to provide reasonable information when applying inversion methods in order to estimate the vertical and horizontal spatial heterogeneities in medium and energy radiation distribution of microseisms while fracking operations. The method consist in record microseisms at a previous lineal array of stations (triaxial accelerometers) which are located close to the source coordinates and cover the area of study. The analysis clarify some ideas about what information can be gained from the micro seismic source data and according to the obtained results, what kind of comparisons and associations might be done to evaluate the fracking performance operation. Non uniformities in medium such as faults would be revealed by interpreted scattering coefficients. Fracture properties like distance, velocity and orientation would be also determined by analyzing energy radiation.

  4. Optimum Binary Search Trees on the Hierarchical Memory Model

    CERN Document Server

    Thite, Shripad

    2008-01-01

    The Hierarchical Memory Model (HMM) of computation is similar to the standard Random Access Machine (RAM) model except that the HMM has a non-uniform memory organized in a hierarchy of levels numbered 1 through h. The cost of accessing a memory location increases with the level number, and accesses to memory locations belonging to the same level cost the same. Formally, the cost of a single access to the memory location at address a is given by m(a), where m: N -> N is the memory cost function, and the h distinct values of m model the different levels of the memory hierarchy. We study the problem of constructing and storing a binary search tree (BST) of minimum cost, over a set of keys, with probabilities for successful and unsuccessful searches, on the HMM with an arbitrary number of memory levels, and for the special case h=2. While the problem of constructing optimum binary search trees has been well studied for the standard RAM model, the additional parameter m for the HMM increases the combinatorial comp...

  5. A Biological Hierarchical Model Based Underwater Moving Object Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Shen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Underwater moving object detection is the key for many underwater computer vision tasks, such as object recognizing, locating, and tracking. Considering the super ability in visual sensing of the underwater habitats, the visual mechanism of aquatic animals is generally regarded as the cue for establishing bionic models which are more adaptive to the underwater environments. However, the low accuracy rate and the absence of the prior knowledge learning limit their adaptation in underwater applications. Aiming to solve the problems originated from the inhomogeneous lumination and the unstable background, the mechanism of the visual information sensing and processing pattern from the eye of frogs are imitated to produce a hierarchical background model for detecting underwater objects. Firstly, the image is segmented into several subblocks. The intensity information is extracted for establishing background model which could roughly identify the object and the background regions. The texture feature of each pixel in the rough object region is further analyzed to generate the object contour precisely. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method gives a better performance. Compared to the traditional Gaussian background model, the completeness of the object detection is 97.92% with only 0.94% of the background region that is included in the detection results.

  6. Higher-order models versus direct hierarchical models: g as superordinate or breadth factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GILLES E. GIGNAC

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Intelligence research appears to have overwhelmingly endorsed a superordinate (higher-order model conceptualization of g, in comparison to the relatively less well-known breadth conceptualization of g, as represented by the direct hierarchical model. In this paper, several similarities and distinctions between the indirect and direct hierarchical models are delineated. Based on the re-analysis of five correlation matrices, it was demonstrated via CFA that the conventional conception of g as a higher-order superordinate factor was likely not as plausible as a first-order breadth factor. The results are discussed in light of theoretical advantages of conceptualizing g as a first-order factor. Further, because the associations between group-factors and g are constrained to zero within a direct hierarchical model, previous observations of isomorphic associations between a lower-order group factor and g are questioned.

  7. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: the analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M

    2008-01-01

    "This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical modeling in which a strict focus on probability models and parametric inference is adopted...

  8. A hierarchical network modeling method for railway tunnels safety assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jin; Xu, Weixiang; Guo, Xin; Liu, Xumin

    2017-02-01

    Using network theory to model risk-related knowledge on accidents is regarded as potential very helpful in risk management. A large amount of defects detection data for railway tunnels is collected in autumn every year in China. It is extremely important to discover the regularities knowledge in database. In this paper, based on network theories and by using data mining techniques, a new method is proposed for mining risk-related regularities to support risk management in railway tunnel projects. A hierarchical network (HN) model which takes into account the tunnel structures, tunnel defects, potential failures and accidents is established. An improved Apriori algorithm is designed to rapidly and effectively mine correlations between tunnel structures and tunnel defects. Then an algorithm is presented in order to mine the risk-related regularities table (RRT) from the frequent patterns. At last, a safety assessment method is proposed by consideration of actual defects and possible risks of defects gained from the RRT. This method cannot only generate the quantitative risk results but also reveal the key defects and critical risks of defects. This paper is further development on accident causation network modeling methods which can provide guidance for specific maintenance measure.

  9. Production optimisation in the petrochemical industry by hierarchical multivariate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Magnus; Furusjoe, Erik; Jansson, Aasa

    2004-06-01

    This project demonstrates the advantages of applying hierarchical multivariate modelling in the petrochemical industry in order to increase knowledge of the total process. The models indicate possible ways to optimise the process regarding the use of energy and raw material, which is directly linked to the environmental impact of the process. The refinery of Nynaes Refining AB (Goeteborg, Sweden) has acted as a demonstration site in this project. The models developed for the demonstration site resulted in: Detection of an unknown process disturbance and suggestions of possible causes; Indications on how to increase the yield in combination with energy savings; The possibility to predict product quality from on-line process measurements, making the results available at a higher frequency than customary laboratory analysis; Quantification of the gradually lowered efficiency of heat transfer in the furnace and increased fuel consumption as an effect of soot build-up on the furnace coils; Increased knowledge of the relation between production rate and the efficiency of the heat exchangers. This report is one of two reports from the project. It contains a technical discussion of the result with some degree of detail. A shorter and more easily accessible report is also available, see IVL report B1586-A.

  10. Production optimisation in the petrochemical industry by hierarchical multivariate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Magnus; Furusjoe, Erik; Jansson, Aasa

    2004-06-01

    This project demonstrates the advantages of applying hierarchical multivariate modelling in the petrochemical industry in order to increase knowledge of the total process. The models indicate possible ways to optimise the process regarding the use of energy and raw material, which is directly linked to the environmental impact of the process. The refinery of Nynaes Refining AB (Goeteborg, Sweden) has acted as a demonstration site in this project. The models developed for the demonstration site resulted in: Detection of an unknown process disturbance and suggestions of possible causes; Indications on how to increase the yield in combination with energy savings; The possibility to predict product quality from on-line process measurements, making the results available at a higher frequency than customary laboratory analysis; Quantification of the gradually lowered efficiency of heat transfer in the furnace and increased fuel consumption as an effect of soot build-up on the furnace coils; Increased knowledge of the relation between production rate and the efficiency of the heat exchangers. This report is one of two reports from the project. It contains a technical discussion of the result with some degree of detail. A shorter and more easily accessible report is also available, see IVL report B1586-A.

  11. A reservoir simulation approach for modeling of naturally fractured reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Mohammadi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this investigation, the Warren and Root model proposed for the simulation of naturally fractured reservoir was improved. A reservoir simulation approach was used to develop a 2D model of a synthetic oil reservoir. Main rock properties of each gridblock were defined for two different types of gridblocks called matrix and fracture gridblocks. These two gridblocks were different in porosity and permeability values which were higher for fracture gridblocks compared to the matrix gridblocks. This model was solved using the implicit finite difference method. Results showed an improvement in the Warren and Root model especially in region 2 of the semilog plot of pressure drop versus time, which indicated a linear transition zone with no inflection point as predicted by other investigators. Effects of fracture spacing, fracture permeability, fracture porosity, matrix permeability and matrix porosity on the behavior of a typical naturally fractured reservoir were also presented.

  12. Loss Function Based Ranking in Two-Stage, Hierarchical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Rongheng; Louis, Thomas A.; Paddock, Susan M.; Ridgeway, Greg

    2009-01-01

    Performance evaluations of health services providers burgeons. Similarly, analyzing spatially related health information, ranking teachers and schools, and identification of differentially expressed genes are increasing in prevalence and importance. Goals include valid and efficient ranking of units for profiling and league tables, identification of excellent and poor performers, the most differentially expressed genes, and determining “exceedances” (how many and which unit-specific true parameters exceed a threshold). These data and inferential goals require a hierarchical, Bayesian model that accounts for nesting relations and identifies both population values and random effects for unit-specific parameters. Furthermore, the Bayesian approach coupled with optimizing a loss function provides a framework for computing non-standard inferences such as ranks and histograms. Estimated ranks that minimize Squared Error Loss (SEL) between the true and estimated ranks have been investigated. The posterior mean ranks minimize SEL and are “general purpose,” relevant to a broad spectrum of ranking goals. However, other loss functions and optimizing ranks that are tuned to application-specific goals require identification and evaluation. For example, when the goal is to identify the relatively good (e.g., in the upper 10%) or relatively poor performers, a loss function that penalizes classification errors produces estimates that minimize the error rate. We construct loss functions that address this and other goals, developing a unified framework that facilitates generating candidate estimates, comparing approaches and producing data analytic performance summaries. We compare performance for a fully parametric, hierarchical model with Gaussian sampling distribution under Gaussian and a mixture of Gaussians prior distributions. We illustrate approaches via analysis of standardized mortality ratio data from the United States Renal Data System. Results show that SEL

  13. The Hierarchical Sparse Selection Model of Visual Crowding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesley eChaney

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Because the environment is cluttered, objects rarely appear in isolation. The visual system must therefore attentionally select behaviorally relevant objects from among many irrelevant ones. A limit on our ability to select individual objects is revealed by the phenomenon of visual crowding: an object seen in the periphery, easily recognized in isolation, can become impossible to identify when surrounded by other, similar objects. The neural basis of crowding is hotly debated: while prevailing theories hold that crowded information is irrecoverable – destroyed due to over-integration in early-stage visual processing – recent evidence demonstrates otherwise. Crowding can occur between high-level, configural object representations, and crowded objects can contribute with high precision to judgments about the gist of a group of objects, even when they are individually unrecognizable. While existing models can account for the basic diagnostic criteria of crowding (e.g. specific critical spacing, spatial anisotropies, and temporal tuning, no present model explains how crowding can operate simultaneously at multiple levels in the visual processing hierarchy, including at the level of whole objects. Here, we present a new model of visual crowding— the hierarchical sparse selection (HSS model, which accounts for object-level crowding, as well as a number of puzzling findings in the recent literature. Counter to existing theories, we posit that crowding occurs not due to degraded visual representations in the brain, but due to impoverished sampling of visual representations for the sake of perception. The HSS model unifies findings from a disparate array of visual crowding studies and makes testable predictions about how information in crowded scenes can be accessed.

  14. The hierarchical sparse selection model of visual crowding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, Wesley; Fischer, Jason; Whitney, David

    2014-01-01

    Because the environment is cluttered, objects rarely appear in isolation. The visual system must therefore attentionally select behaviorally relevant objects from among many irrelevant ones. A limit on our ability to select individual objects is revealed by the phenomenon of visual crowding: an object seen in the periphery, easily recognized in isolation, can become impossible to identify when surrounded by other, similar objects. The neural basis of crowding is hotly debated: while prevailing theories hold that crowded information is irrecoverable - destroyed due to over-integration in early stage visual processing - recent evidence demonstrates otherwise. Crowding can occur between high-level, configural object representations, and crowded objects can contribute with high precision to judgments about the "gist" of a group of objects, even when they are individually unrecognizable. While existing models can account for the basic diagnostic criteria of crowding (e.g., specific critical spacing, spatial anisotropies, and temporal tuning), no present model explains how crowding can operate simultaneously at multiple levels in the visual processing hierarchy, including at the level of whole objects. Here, we present a new model of visual crowding-the hierarchical sparse selection (HSS) model, which accounts for object-level crowding, as well as a number of puzzling findings in the recent literature. Counter to existing theories, we posit that crowding occurs not due to degraded visual representations in the brain, but due to impoverished sampling of visual representations for the sake of perception. The HSS model unifies findings from a disparate array of visual crowding studies and makes testable predictions about how information in crowded scenes can be accessed.

  15. Using Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation to assess the generalizability of cognitive models of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Pachur, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    To be useful, cognitive models with fitted parameters should show generalizability across time and allow accurate predictions of future observations. It has been proposed that hierarchical procedures yield better estimates of model parameters than do nonhierarchical, independent approaches, because the formers' estimates for individuals within a group can mutually inform each other. Here, we examine Bayesian hierarchical approaches to evaluating model generalizability in the context of two prominent models of risky choice-cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) and the transfer-of-attention-exchange model (Birnbaum & Chavez, 1997). Using empirical data of risky choices collected for each individual at two time points, we compared the use of hierarchical versus independent, nonhierarchical Bayesian estimation techniques to assess two aspects of model generalizability: parameter stability (across time) and predictive accuracy. The relative performance of hierarchical versus independent estimation varied across the different measures of generalizability. The hierarchical approach improved parameter stability (in terms of a lower absolute discrepancy of parameter values across time) and predictive accuracy (in terms of deviance; i.e., likelihood). With respect to test-retest correlations and posterior predictive accuracy, however, the hierarchical approach did not outperform the independent approach. Further analyses suggested that this was due to strong correlations between some parameters within both models. Such intercorrelations make it difficult to identify and interpret single parameters and can induce high degrees of shrinkage in hierarchical models. Similar findings may also occur in the context of other cognitive models of choice.

  16. Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez

    2007-01-01

    A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...

  17. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Big Data Fusion in Soil Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, B.; Kathuria, D.; Katzfuss, M.

    2016-12-01

    Soil moisture datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors on the other hand provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. Soil moisture is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables. Hydrologic processes usually occur at a scale of 1 km or less and therefore spatially ubiquitous and temporally periodic soil moisture products at this scale are required to aid local decision makers in agriculture, weather prediction and reservoir operations. Past literature has largely focused on downscaling RS soil moisture for a small extent of a field or a watershed and hence the applicability of such products has been limited. The present study employs a spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to derive soil moisture products at a spatial scale of 1 km for the state of Oklahoma by fusing point scale Mesonet data and coarse scale RS data for soil moisture and its auxiliary covariates such as precipitation, topography, soil texture and vegetation. It is seen that the BHM model handles change of support problems easily while performing accurate uncertainty quantification arising from measurement errors and imperfect retrieval algorithms. The computational challenge arising due to the large number of measurements is tackled by utilizing basis function approaches and likelihood approximations. The BHM model can be considered as a complex Bayesian extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for large datasets in the presence of uncertainties.

  18. Loss Performance Modeling for Hierarchical Heterogeneous Wireless Networks With Speed-Sensitive Call Admission Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Qian; Huang, Yue-Cai; Ko, King-Tim;

    2011-01-01

    dimensioning and planning. This paper investigates the computationally efficient loss performance modeling for multiservice in hierarchical heterogeneous wireless networks. A speed-sensitive call admission control (CAC) scheme is considered in our model to assign overflowed calls to appropriate tiers...

  19. A Multilevel Secure Relation-Hierarchical Data Model for a Secure DBMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A multilevel secure relation-hierarchical data model formultilevel secure database is extended from the relation-hierarchical data model in single level environment in this paper. Based on the model, an upper-lower layer relational integrity is presented after we analyze and eliminate the covert channels caused by the database integrity. Two SQL statements are extended to process polyinstantiation in the multilevel secure environment. The system based on the multilevel secure relation-hierarchical data model is capable of integratively storing and manipulating complicated objects (e.g., multilevel spatial data) and conventional data (e.g., integer, real number and character string) in multilevel secure database.

  20. Thrombin related peptide TP508 promoted fracture repair in a mouse high energy fracture model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan Xiao-Hua

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thrombin related peptide (TP508 is a 23 amino-acid synthetic peptide that represents a portion of the receptor-binding domain of thrombin molecule. Previous studies have shown that TP508 can accelerate musculoskeletal tissue repair including fracture healing. Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of TP508 on fracture healing in a murine fracture model representing high energy fracture situation. Methods Eighty CD 1 mice underwent controlled quadriceps muscle crush and open transverse mid diaphyseal femoral fracture that was then fixed with an external fixator. Animals were randomised into four groups to receive an intra-operative dose of either 100 μg TP508 into the fracture gap; 100 μg TP508 into the surrounding damaged muscle tissues; 10 μg TP508 into the fracture gap, or control equal amount of saline into the fracture gap. Radiographic assessment was performed weekly for 5 weeks; histological analysis was at 3 and 5 weeks post fracture and biomechanical testing of the fractured bone was performed at 5 weeks post fracture. Results Mechanical testing data showed that the fracture stiffness was significantly higher in the group receiving 100 μg TP508 into the fracture gap than other groups. Histological and radiographic analysis revealed a trend of increase in bone formation in the 100 μg TP508 injected into the fracture gap group compared to the saline control group. It was noted that the scar tissues was significantly less in Group II comparing with the saline control group and there was increased blood vessel formation in the crushed muscles and fracture gap areas in the groups receiving TP508 comparing to the saline control group. Conclusion The results from this study demonstrated the use of thrombin related peptide TP508 in the situation of a high energy fracture can promote fracture healing and reduce the potential complications such as muscle fibrosis and fracture delayed or non-union.

  1. Numerical modelling in non linear fracture mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viggo Tvergaard

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Some numerical studies of crack propagation are based on using constitutive models that accountfor damage evolution in the material. When a critical damage value has been reached in a materialpoint, it is natural to assume that this point has no more carrying capacity, as is done numerically in the elementvanish technique. In the present review this procedure is illustrated for micromechanically based materialmodels, such as a ductile failure model that accounts for the nucleation and growth of voids to coalescence, and a model for intergranular creep failure with diffusive growth of grain boundary cavities leading to micro-crack formation. The procedure is also illustrated for low cycle fatigue, based on continuum damage mechanics. In addition, the possibility of crack growth predictions for elastic-plastic solids using cohesive zone models to represent the fracture process is discussed.

  2. Investigating follow-up outcome change using hierarchical linear modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogrodniczuk, J S; Piper, W E; Joyce, A S

    2001-03-01

    Individual change in outcome during a one-year follow-up period for 98 patients who received either interpretive or supportive psychotherapy was examined using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). This followed a previous study that had investigated average (treatment condition) change during follow-up using traditional methods of data analysis (repeated measures ANOVA, chi-square tests). We also investigated whether two patient personality characteristics-quality of object relations (QOR) and psychological mindedness (PM)-predicted individual change. HLM procedures yielded findings that were not detected using traditional methods of data analysis. New findings indicated that the rate of individual change in outcome during follow-up varied significantly among the patients. QOR was directly related to favorable individual change for supportive therapy patients, but not for patients who received interpretive therapy. The findings have implications for determining which patients will show long-term benefit following short-term supportive therapy and how to enhance it. The study also found significant associations between QOR and final outcome level.

  3. Phase-field modeling of hydraulic fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Zachary A.; Landis, Chad M.

    2016-11-01

    In this work a theoretical framework implementing the phase-field approach to fracture is used to couple the physics of flow through porous media and cracks with the mechanics of fracture. The main modeling challenge addressed in this work, which is a challenge for all diffuse crack representations, is on how to allow for the flow of fluid and the action of fluid pressure on the aggregate within the diffuse damage zone of the cracks. The theory is constructed by presenting the general physical balance laws and conducting a consistent thermodynamic analysis to constrain the constitutive relationships. Constitutive equations that reproduce the desired responses at the various limits of the phase-field parameter are proposed in order to capture Darcy-type flow in the intact porous medium and Stokes-type flow within open cracks. A finite element formulation for the solution of the governing model equations is presented and discussed. Finally, the theoretical and numerical model is shown to compare favorably to several important analytical solutions. More complex and interesting calculations are also presented to illustrate some of the advantageous features of the approach.

  4. A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for analyzing observational data from marine ecological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Song S; Craig, J Kevin; Baustian, Melissa M; Rabalais, Nancy N

    2009-12-01

    We introduce the Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for analyzing observational data from marine ecological studies using a data set intended for inference on the effects of bottom-water hypoxia on macrobenthic communities in the northern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, USA. We illustrate (1) the process of developing a model, (2) the use of the hierarchical model results for statistical inference through innovative graphical presentation, and (3) a comparison to the conventional linear modeling approach (ANOVA). Our results indicate that the Bayesian hierarchical approach is better able to detect a "treatment" effect than classical ANOVA while avoiding several arbitrary assumptions necessary for linear models, and is also more easily interpreted when presented graphically. These results suggest that the hierarchical modeling approach is a better alternative than conventional linear models and should be considered for the analysis of observational field data from marine systems.

  5. Linking advanced fracture models to structural analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiesa, Matteo

    2001-07-01

    Shell structures with defects occur in many situations. The defects are usually introduced during the welding process necessary for joining different parts of the structure. Higher utilization of structural materials leads to a need for accurate numerical tools for reliable prediction of structural response. The direct discretization of the cracked shell structure with solid finite elements in order to perform an integrity assessment of the structure in question leads to large size problems, and makes such analysis infeasible in structural application. In this study a link between local material models and structural analysis is outlined. An ''ad hoc'' element formulation is used in order to connect complex material models to the finite element framework used for structural analysis. An improved elasto-plastic line spring finite element formulation, used in order to take cracks into account, is linked to shell elements which are further linked to beam elements. In this way one obtain a global model of the shell structure that also accounts for local flexibilities and fractures due to defects. An important advantage with such an approach is a direct fracture mechanics assessment e.g. via computed J-integral or CTOD. A recent development in this approach is the notion of two-parameter fracture assessment. This means that the crack tip stress tri-axiality (constraint) is employed in determining the corresponding fracture toughness, giving a much more realistic capacity of cracked structures. The present thesis is organized in six research articles and an introductory chapter that reviews important background literature related to this work. Paper I and II address the performance of shell and line spring finite elements as a cost effective tool for performing the numerical calculation needed to perform a fracture assessment. In Paper II a failure assessment, based on the testing of a constraint-corrected fracture mechanics specimen under tension, is

  6. Modeling of Fracture Toughness of Electroless Nickel (EN) Coatings

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    K. Zangeneh; S.M. Monir-vaghefi; F. Ashrafizadeh

    2004-01-01

    In the present reserch, a model has been proposed for estimate fracture toughness of Nickel-phosphorus (EN)layers. For this purpose, high phosphorus (9%) EN coatings with thicknesses of 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 μm were applied on steel substrates and then treated as conventional process. Fracture toughness of coatings was obtained using Vickers indentation method. It is found that fracture toughness increses as coating thickness reduces. Effect of coating thickness on fracture toughness was exhibited by various models. Evaluation of models revealed good agreement between of proposed model (Kc=f(t,t2)) and experimental data.

  7. Modelling deformation and fracture in confectionery wafers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammed, Idris K.; Charalambides, Maria N.; Williams, J. Gordon; Rasburn, John [Mechanical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, South Kensington, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom and Nestec York Ltd., Nestlé Product Technology Centre, Haxby Road, PO Box 204, York YO91 1XY (United Kingdom)

    2015-01-22

    The aim of this research is to model the deformation and fracture behaviour of brittle wafers often used in chocolate confectionary products. Three point bending and compression experiments were performed on beam and circular disc samples respectively to determine the 'apparent' stress-strain curves in bending and compression. The deformation of the wafer for both these testing types was observed in-situ within an SEM. The wafer is modeled analytically and numerically as a composite material with a core which is more porous than the skins. X-ray tomography was used to generate a three dimensional volume of the wafer microstructure which was then meshed and used for quantitative analysis. A linear elastic material model, with a damage function and element deletion, was used and the XMT generated architecture was loaded in compression. The output from the FE simulations correlates closely to the load-deflection deformation observed experimentally.

  8. Modelling deformation and fracture in confectionery wafers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Idris K.; Charalambides, Maria N.; Williams, J. Gordon; Rasburn, John

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this research is to model the deformation and fracture behaviour of brittle wafers often used in chocolate confectionary products. Three point bending and compression experiments were performed on beam and circular disc samples respectively to determine the 'apparent' stress-strain curves in bending and compression. The deformation of the wafer for both these testing types was observed in-situ within an SEM. The wafer is modeled analytically and numerically as a composite material with a core which is more porous than the skins. X-ray tomography was used to generate a three dimensional volume of the wafer microstructure which was then meshed and used for quantitative analysis. A linear elastic material model, with a damage function and element deletion, was used and the XMT generated architecture was loaded in compression. The output from the FE simulations correlates closely to the load-deflection deformation observed experimentally.

  9. A multiscale model of distributed fracture and permeability in solids in all-round compression

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Bellis, Maria Laura; Della Vecchia, Gabriele; Ortiz, Michael; Pandolfi, Anna

    2017-07-01

    We present a microstructural model of permeability in fractured solids, where the fractures are described in terms of recursive families of parallel, equidistant cohesive faults. Faults originate upon the attainment of tensile or shear strength in the undamaged material. Secondary faults may form in a hierarchical organization, creating a complex network of connected fractures that modify the permeability of the solid. The undamaged solid may possess initial porosity and permeability. The particular geometry of the superposed micro-faults lends itself to an explicit analytical quantification of the porosity and permeability of the damaged material. The model is the finite kinematics version of a recently proposed porous material model, applied with success to the simulation of laboratory tests and excavation problems [De Bellis, M. L., Della Vecchia, G., Ortiz, M., Pandolfi, A., 2016. A linearized porous brittle damage material model with distributed frictional-cohesive faults. Engineering Geology 215, 10-24. Cited By 0. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2016.10.010]. The extension adds over and above the linearized kinematics version for problems characterized by large deformations localized in narrow zones, while the remainder of the solid undergoes small deformations, as typically observed in soil and rock mechanics problems. The approach is particularly appealing as a means of modeling a wide scope of engineering problems, ranging from the prevention of water or gas outburst into underground mines, to the prediction of the integrity of reservoirs for CO2 sequestration or hazardous waste storage, to hydraulic fracturing processes.

  10. Hierarchical set of models to estimate soil thermal diffusivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhangelskaya, Tatiana; Lukyashchenko, Ksenia

    2016-04-01

    Soil thermal properties significantly affect the land-atmosphere heat exchange rates. Intra-soil heat fluxes depend both on temperature gradients and soil thermal conductivity. Soil temperature changes due to energy fluxes are determined by soil specific heat. Thermal diffusivity is equal to thermal conductivity divided by volumetric specific heat and reflects both the soil ability to transfer heat and its ability to change temperature when heat is supplied or withdrawn. The higher soil thermal diffusivity is, the thicker is the soil/ground layer in which diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations are registered and the smaller are the temperature fluctuations at the soil surface. Thermal diffusivity vs. moisture dependencies for loams, sands and clays of the East European Plain were obtained using the unsteady-state method. Thermal diffusivity of different soils differed greatly, and for a given soil it could vary by 2, 3 or even 5 times depending on soil moisture. The shapes of thermal diffusivity vs. moisture dependencies were different: peak curves were typical for sandy soils and sigmoid curves were typical for loamy and especially for compacted soils. The lowest thermal diffusivities and the smallest range of their variability with soil moisture were obtained for clays with high humus content. Hierarchical set of models will be presented, allowing an estimate of soil thermal diffusivity from available data on soil texture, moisture, bulk density and organic carbon. When developing these models the first step was to parameterize the experimental thermal diffusivity vs. moisture dependencies with a 4-parameter function; the next step was to obtain regression formulas to estimate the function parameters from available data on basic soil properties; the last step was to evaluate the accuracy of suggested models using independent data on soil thermal diffusivity. The simplest models were based on soil bulk density and organic carbon data and provided different

  11. Discrete Fracture Networks Groundwater Modelling at Bedding Control Fractured Sedimentary Rock mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pin, Yeh; Yuan-Chieh, Wu

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater flow modelling in fractured rock mass is an important challenging work in predicting the transport of contamination. So far as we know about the numerical analysis method was consider for crystalline rock, which means discontinuous are treated as stochastic distribution in homogeneous rock mass. Based on the understanding of geology in Taiwan in past few decades, we know that the hydraulic conductivities of Quaternary and Tertiary system rock mass are strongly controlled by development of sedimentary structures (bedding plane). The main purpose of this study is to understand how Discrete Fracture Networks (DFN) affects numerical results in terms of hydraulic behavior using different DFN generation methods. Base on surface geology investigation and core drilling work (3 boreholes with a total length of 120m), small scale fracture properties with in Cho-lan formation (muddy sandstone) are defined, including gently dip of bedding and 2 sub-vertical joint sets. Two FracMan/MAFIC numerical modellings are conducted, using ECPM approach (Equivalent Continuum Porous Media); case A considered all fracture were Power law distribution with Poisson fracture center; case B considered all bedding plans penetrate into modelling region, and remove the bedding count to recalculate joint fracture parameters. Modelling results show that Case B gives stronger groundwater pathways than Case A and have impact on flow field. This preliminary modelling result implicates the groundwater flow modelling work in some fractured sedimentary rock mass, might be considerate to rock sedimentary structure development itself, discontinuous maybe not follow the same stochastic DFN parameter.

  12. Hierarchical Shrinkage Priors and Model Fitting for High-dimensional Generalized Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Nengjun; Ma, Shuangge

    2013-01-01

    Genetic and other scientific studies routinely generate very many predictor variables, which can be naturally grouped, with predictors in the same groups being highly correlated. It is desirable to incorporate the hierarchical structure of the predictor variables into generalized linear models for simultaneous variable selection and coefficient estimation. We propose two prior distributions: hierarchical Cauchy and double-exponential distributions, on coefficients in generalized linear models. The hierarchical priors include both variable-specific and group-specific tuning parameters, thereby not only adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients and different groups but also providing a way to pool the information within groups. We fit generalized linear models with the proposed hierarchical priors by incorporating flexible expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms into the standard iteratively weighted least squares as implemented in the general statistical package R. The methods are illustrated with data from an experiment to identify genetic polymorphisms for survival of mice following infection with Listeria monocytogenes. The performance of the proposed procedures is further assessed via simulation studies. The methods are implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/). PMID:23192052

  13. Intelligent multiagent coordination based on reinforcement hierarchical neuro-fuzzy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Leonardo Forero; Vellasco, Marley; Figueiredo, Karla

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents the research and development of two hybrid neuro-fuzzy models for the hierarchical coordination of multiple intelligent agents. The main objective of the models is to have multiple agents interact intelligently with each other in complex systems. We developed two new models of coordination for intelligent multiagent systems, which integrates the Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy model with two proposed coordination mechanisms: the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with a market-driven coordination mechanism (MA-RL-HNFP-MD) and the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with graph coordination (MA-RL-HNFP-CG). In order to evaluate the proposed models and verify the contribution of the proposed coordination mechanisms, two multiagent benchmark applications were developed: the pursuit game and the robot soccer simulation. The results obtained demonstrated that the proposed coordination mechanisms greatly improve the performance of the multiagent system when compared with other strategies.

  14. An analytical thermohydraulic model for discretely fractured geothermal reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Don B.; Koch, Donald L.; Tester, Jefferson W.

    2016-09-01

    In discretely fractured reservoirs such as those found in Enhanced/Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS), knowledge of the fracture network is important in understanding the thermal hydraulics, i.e., how the fluid flows and the resulting temporal evolution of the subsurface temperature. The purpose of this study was to develop an analytical model of the fluid flow and heat transport in a discretely fractured network that can be used for a wide range of modeling applications and serve as an alternative analysis tool to more computationally intensive numerical codes. Given the connectivity and structure of a fracture network, the flow in the system was solved using a linear system of algebraic equations for the pressure at the nodes of the network. With the flow determined, the temperature in the fracture was solved by coupling convective heat transport in the fracture with one-dimensional heat conduction perpendicular to the fracture, employing the Green's function derived solution for a single discrete fracture. The predicted temperatures along the fracture surfaces from the analytical solution were compared to numerical simulations using the TOUGH2 reservoir code. Through two case studies, we showed the capabilities of the analytical model and explored the effect of uncertainty in the fracture apertures and network structure on thermal performance. While both sources of uncertainty independently produce large variations in production temperature, uncertainty in the network structure, whenever present, had a predominant influence on thermal performance.

  15. Nonresident Undergraduates' Performance in English Writing Classes-Hierarchical Linear Modeling Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Allison A Vaughn; Matthew Bergman; Barry Fass-Holmes

    2015-01-01

    ...) in the fall term of the five most recent academic years. Hierarchical linear modeling analyses showed that the predictors with the largest effect sizes were English writing programs and class level...

  16. LIMO EEG: a toolbox for hierarchical LInear MOdeling of ElectroEncephaloGraphic data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pernet, Cyril R; Chauveau, Nicolas; Gaspar, Carl; Rousselet, Guillaume A

    2011-01-01

    ...). LIMO EEG is a Matlab toolbox (EEGLAB compatible) to analyse evoked responses over all space and time dimensions, while accounting for single trial variability using a simple hierarchical linear modelling of the data...

  17. LIMO EEG: A Toolbox for Hierarchical LInear MOdeling of ElectroEncephaloGraphic Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pernet, Cyril R; Chauveau, Nicolas; Gaspar, Carl; Rousselet, Guillaume A

    2011-01-01

    ...). LIMO EEG is a Matlab toolbox (EEGLAB compatible) to analyse evoked responses over all space and time dimensions, while accounting for single trial variability using a simple hierarchical linear modelling of the data...

  18. Higher Order Hierarchical Legendre Basis Functions for Electromagnetic Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Erik; Volakis, John L.; Meincke, Peter

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a new hierarchical basis of arbitrary order for integral equations solved with the Method of Moments (MoM). The basis is derived from orthogonal Legendre polynomials which are modified to impose continuity of vector quantities between neighboring elements while maintaining mos...

  19. Higher Order Hierarchical Legendre Basis Functions for Electromagnetic Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Erik; Volakis, John L.; Meincke, Peter

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a new hierarchical basis of arbitrary order for integral equations solved with the Method of Moments (MoM). The basis is derived from orthogonal Legendre polynomials which are modified to impose continuity of vector quantities between neighboring elements while maintaining mos...

  20. Heuristics for Hierarchical Partitioning with Application to Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Michael Oliver; Alur, Rajeev

    2001-01-01

    Given a collection of connected components, it is often desired to cluster together parts of strong correspondence, yielding a hierarchical structure. We address the automation of this process and apply heuristics to battle the combinatorial and computational complexity. We define a cost function...

  1. Multiscale model reduction for shale gas transport in fractured media

    CERN Document Server

    Akkutlu, I Y; Vasilyeva, Maria

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a multiscale model reduction technique that describes shale gas transport in fractured media. Due to the pore-scale heterogeneities and processes, we use upscaled models to describe the matrix. We follow our previous work \\cite{aes14}, where we derived an upscaled model in the form of generalized nonlinear diffusion model to describe the effects of kerogen. To model the interaction between the matrix and the fractures, we use Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method. In this approach, the matrix and the fracture interaction is modeled via local multiscale basis functions. We developed the GMsFEM and applied for linear flows with horizontal or vertical fracture orientations on a Cartesian fine grid. In this paper, we consider arbitrary fracture orientations and use triangular fine grid and developed GMsFEM for nonlinear flows. Moreover, we develop online basis function strategies to adaptively improve the convergence. The number of multiscale basis functions in each coarse region ...

  2. Extending the Real-Time Maude Semantics of Ptolemy to Hierarchical DE Models

    CERN Document Server

    Bae, Kyungmin; 10.4204/EPTCS.36.3

    2010-01-01

    This paper extends our Real-Time Maude formalization of the semantics of flat Ptolemy II discrete-event (DE) models to hierarchical models, including modal models. This is a challenging task that requires combining synchronous fixed-point computations with hierarchical structure. The synthesis of a Real-Time Maude verification model from a Ptolemy II DE model, and the formal verification of the synthesized model in Real-Time Maude, have been integrated into Ptolemy II, enabling a model-engineering process that combines the convenience of Ptolemy II DE modeling and simulation with formal verification in Real-Time Maude.

  3. Modeling Dynamic Fracture of Cryogenic Pellets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parks, Paul [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2016-06-30

    This work is part of an investigation with the long-range objective of predicting the size distribution function and velocity dispersion of shattered pellet fragments after a large cryogenic pellet impacts a solid surface at high velocity. The study is vitally important for the shattered pellet injection (SPI) technique, one of the leading technologies being implemented at ORNL for the mitigation of disruption damage on current tokamaks and ITER. The report contains three parts that are somewhat interwoven. In Part I we formulated a self-similar model for the expansion dynamics and velocity dispersion of the debris cloud following pellet impact against a thick (rigid) target plate. Also presented in Part I is an analytical fracture model that predicts the nominal or mean size of the fragments in the debris cloud and agrees well with known SPI data. The aim of Part II is to gain an understanding of the pellet fracturing process when a pellet is shattered inside a miter tube with a sharp bend. Because miter tubes have a thin stainless steel (SS) wall a permanent deformation (dishing) of the wall is produced at the site of the impact. A review of the literature indicates that most projectile impact on thin plates are those for which the target is deformed and the projectile is perfectly rigid. Such impacts result in “projectile embedding” where the projectile speed is reduced to zero during the interaction so that all the kinetic energy (KE) of the projectile goes into the energy stored in plastic deformation. Much of the literature deals with perforation of the target. The problem here is quite different; the softer pellet easily undergoes complete material failure causing only a small transfer of KE to stored energy of wall deformation. For the real miter tube, we derived a strain energy function for the wall deflection using a non-linear (plastic) stress-strain relation for 304 SS. Using a dishing profile identical to the linear Kirchkoff-Love profile (for lack

  4. A cubic matrix-fracture geometry model for radial tracer flow in naturally fractured reservoirs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jetzabeth Ramirez-Sabag; Fernando Samaniego V.

    1992-01-01

    This study presents a general solution for the radial flow of tracers in naturally fractured reservoirs, with cubic blocks matrix-fracture geometry. Continuous and finite step injection of chemical and radioactive tracers are considered. The reservoir is treated as being composed of two regions: a mobile where dispersion and convection take place and a stagnant where only diffusion and adsorption are allowed. Radioactive decay is considered in both regions. The model of this study is thoroughly compared under proper simplified conditions to those previously presented in the literature. The coupled matrix to fracture solution in the Laplace space is numerically inverted by means of the Crump algorithm. A detailed validation of the model with respect to solutions previously presented and/or simplified physical conditions solutions (i.e., homogeneous case) or limit solutions (i.e., naturally fractured nearly homogeneous) was carried out. The influence of the three of the main dimensionless parameters that enter into the solution was carefully investigated. A comparison of results for three different naturally fractured systems, vertical fractures (linear flow), horizontal fractures (radial flow) and the cubic geometry model of this study, is presented.

  5. Recognizing Chinese characters in digital ink from non-native language writers using hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Hao; Zhang, Xi-wen

    2017-06-01

    While Chinese is learned as a second language, its characters are taught step by step from their strokes to components, radicals to components, and their complex relations. Chinese Characters in digital ink from non-native language writers are deformed seriously, thus the global recognition approaches are poorer. So a progressive approach from bottom to top is presented based on hierarchical models. Hierarchical information includes strokes and hierarchical components. Each Chinese character is modeled as a hierarchical tree. Strokes in one Chinese characters in digital ink are classified with Hidden Markov Models and concatenated to the stroke symbol sequence. And then the structure of components in one ink character is extracted. According to the extraction result and the stroke symbol sequence, candidate characters are traversed and scored. Finally, the recognition candidate results are listed by descending. The method of this paper is validated by testing 19815 copies of the handwriting Chinese characters written by foreign students.

  6. Hierarchical functional model for automobile development; Jidosha kaihatsu no tame no kaisogata kino model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sumida, S. [U-shin Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nagamatsu, M.; Maruyama, K. [Hokkaido Institute of Technology, Sapporo (Japan); Hiramatsu, S. [Mazda Motor Corp., Hiroshima (Japan)

    1997-10-01

    A new approach on modeling is put forward in order to compose the virtual prototype which is indispensable for fully computer integrated concurrent development of automobile product. A basic concept of the hierarchical functional model is proposed as the concrete form of this new modeling technology. This model is used mainly for explaining and simulating functions and efficiencies of both the parts and the total product of automobile. All engineers who engage themselves in design and development of automobile can collaborate with one another using this model. Some application examples are shown, and usefulness of this model is demonstrated. 5 refs., 5 figs.

  7. Lean business model and implementation of a geriatric fracture center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kates, Stephen L

    2014-05-01

    Geriatric hip fracture is a common event associated with high costs of care and often with suboptimal outcomes for the patients. Ideally, a new care model to manage geriatric hip fractures would address both quality and safety of patient care as well as the need for reduced costs of care. The geriatric fracture center model of care is one such model reported to improve both outcomes and quality of care. It is a lean business model applied to medicine. This article describes basic lean business concepts applied to geriatric fracture care and information needed to successfully implement a geriatric fracture center. It is written to assist physicians and surgeons in their efforts to implement an improved care model for their patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling Electric Current Flow in 3D Fractured Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, S.; Roubinet, D.; Irving, J.

    2014-12-01

    The study of fractured rocks is extremely important in a variety of research fields and applications such as hydrogeology, hydrocarbon extraction and long-term storage of toxic waste. As fractures are highly conductive structures in comparison to the surrounding rock, their presence can be either an advantage or a drawback. For hydrocarbon extraction, fractures allow for quick and easy access to the resource whereas for toxic waste storage their presence increases the risk of leakage and migration of pollutants. In both cases, the identification of fracture network characteristics is an essential step. Recently, we have developed an approach for modeling electric current flow in 2D fractured media. This approach is based on a discrete-dual-porosity model where fractures are represented explicitly, the matrix is coarsely discretized into blocks, and current flow exchange between the fractures and matrix is analytically evaluated at the fracture-scale and integrated at the block-scale [1]. Although this approach has shown much promise and has proven its efficiency for 2D simulations, its extension to 3D remains to be addressed. To this end, we assume that fractures can be represented as two-dimensional finite planes embedded in the surrounding matrix, and we express analytically the distribution of electric potential at the fracture scale. This fracture-scale expression takes into account the electric-current-flow exchange with the surrounding matrix and flow conservation is enforced at the fracture intersections. The fracture-matrix exchange is then integrated at the matrix-block scale where the electric current flow conservation at the block boundaries is formulated with a modified finite volume method. With the objective of providing a low-computational-cost modeling approach adapted to 3D simulations in fractured media, our model is (i) validated and compared to existing modeling approaches and, (ii) used to evaluate the impact of the presence of fractures on

  9. Hierarchical model-based predictive control of a power plant portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edlund, Kristian; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2011-01-01

    control” – becomes increasingly important as the ratio of renewable energy in a power system grows. As a consequence, tomorrow's “smart grids” require highly flexible and scalable control systems compared to conventional power systems. This paper proposes a hierarchical model-based predictive control...... design for power system portfolio control, which aims specifically at meeting these demands.The design involves a two-layer hierarchical structure with clearly defined interfaces that facilitate an object-oriented implementation approach. The same hierarchical structure is reflected in the underlying...

  10. Application of Stochastic Fracture Network with Numerical Fluid Flow Simulations to Groundwater Flow Modeling in Fractured Rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The continuum approach in fluid flow modeling is generally applied to porous geological media,but has limitel applicability to fractured rocks. With the presence of a discrete fracture network relatively sparsely distributed in the matrix, it may be difficult or erroneous to use a porous medium fluid flow model with continuum assumptions to describe the fluid flow in fractured rocks at small or even large field scales. A discrete fracture fluid flow approach incorporating a stochastic fracture network with numerical fluid flow simulations could have the capability of capturing fluid flow behaviors such as inhomogeneity and anisotropy while reflecting the changes of hydraulic features at different scales.Moreover, this approach can be implemented to estimate the size of the representative elementary volume (REV) in order to find out the scales at which a porous medium flow model could be applied, and then to determine the hydraulic conductivity tensor for fractured rocks. The following topics are focused on in this study: (a) conceptual discrete fracture fluid flow modeling incorporating a stochastic fracture network with numerical flow simulations; (b) estimation of REVand hydraulic conductivity tensor for fractured rocks utilizing a stochastic fracture network with numerical fluid flow simulations; (c) investigation of the effect of fracture orientation and density on the hydraulic conductivity and REV by implementing a stochastic fracture network with numerical fluid flow simulations, and (d) fluid flow conceptual models accounting for major and minor fractures in the 2-D or 3-D flow fields incorporating a stochastic fracture network with numerical fluid flow simulations.``

  11. Poroelastic modeling of seismic boundary conditions across a fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Seiji; Schoenberg, Michael A

    2007-08-01

    Permeability of a fracture can affect how the fracture interacts with seismic waves. To examine this effect, a simple mathematical model that describes the poroelastic nature of wave-fracture interaction is useful. In this paper, a set of boundary conditions is presented which relate wave-induced particle velocity (or displacement) and stress including fluid pressure across a compliant, fluid-bearing fracture. These conditions are derived by modeling a fracture as a thin porous layer with increased compliance and finite permeability. Assuming a small layer thickness, the boundary conditions can be derived by integrating the governing equations of poroelastic wave propagation. A finite jump in the stress and velocity across a fracture is expressed as a function of the stress and velocity at the boundaries. Further simplification for a thin fracture yields a set of characteristic parameters that control the seismic response of single fractures with a wide range of mechanical and hydraulic properties. These boundary conditions have potential applications in simplifying numerical models such as finite-difference and finite-element methods to compute seismic wave scattering off nonplanar (e.g., curved and intersecting) fractures.

  12. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...... measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers...

  13. Application of Discrete Fracture Modeling and Upscaling Techniques to Complex Fractured Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi-Fard, M.; Lapene, A.; Pauget, L.

    2012-12-01

    During the last decade, an important effort has been made to improve data acquisition (seismic and borehole imaging) and workflow for reservoir characterization which has greatly benefited the description of fractured reservoirs. However, the geological models resulting from the interpretations need to be validated or calibrated against dynamic data. Flow modeling in fractured reservoirs remains a challenge due to the difficulty of representing mass transfers at different heterogeneity scales. The majority of the existing approaches are based on dual continuum representation where the fracture network and the matrix are represented separately and their interactions are modeled using transfer functions. These models are usually based on idealized representation of the fracture distribution which makes the integration of real data difficult. In recent years, due to increases in computer power, discrete fracture modeling techniques (DFM) are becoming popular. In these techniques the fractures are represented explicitly allowing the direct use of data. In this work we consider the DFM technique developed by Karimi-Fard et al. [1] which is based on an unstructured finite-volume discretization. The mass flux between two adjacent control-volumes is evaluated using an optimized two-point flux approximation. The result of the discretization is a list of control-volumes with the associated pore-volumes and positions, and a list of connections with the associated transmissibilities. Fracture intersections are simplified using a connectivity transformation which contributes considerably to the efficiency of the methodology. In addition, the method is designed for general purpose simulators and any connectivity based simulator can be used for flow simulations. The DFM technique is either used standalone or as part of an upscaling technique. The upscaling techniques are required for large reservoirs where the explicit representation of all fractures and faults is not possible

  14. Modeling place field activity with hierarchical slow feature analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabian eSchoenfeld

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present six experimental studies from the literature on hippocampal place cells and replicate their main results in a computational framework based on the principle of slowness. Each of the chosen studies first allows rodents to develop stable place field activity and then examines a distinct property of the established spatial encoding, namely adaptation to cue relocation and removal; directional firing activity in the linear track and open field; and results of morphing and stretching the overall environment. To replicate these studies we employ a hierarchical Slow Feature Analysis (SFA network. SFA is an unsupervised learning algorithm extracting slowly varying information from a given stream of data, and hierarchical application of SFA allows for high dimensional input such as visual images to be processed efficiently and in a biologically plausible fashion. Training data for the network is produced in ratlab, a free basic graphics engine designed to quickly set up a wide range of 3D environments mimicking real life experimental studies, simulate a foraging rodent while recording its visual input, and training & sampling a hierarchical SFA network.

  15. New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

  16. Development of Reservoir Characterization Techniques and Production Models for Exploiting Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiggins, Michael L.; Brown, Raymon L.; Civan, Frauk; Hughes, Richard G.

    2001-08-15

    Research continues on characterizing and modeling the behavior of naturally fractured reservoir systems. Work has progressed on developing techniques for estimating fracture properties from seismic and well log data, developing naturally fractured wellbore models, and developing a model to characterize the transfer of fluid from the matrix to the fracture system for use in the naturally fractured reservoir simulator.

  17. Creep and fracture of a model yoghurt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manneville, Sebastien; Leocmach, Mathieu; Perge, Christophe; Divoux, Thibaut

    2014-11-01

    Biomaterials such as protein or polysaccharide gels are known to behave qualitatively as soft solids and to rupture under an external load. Combining optical and ultrasonic imaging to shear rheology we show that the failure scenario of a model yoghurt, namely a casein gel, is reminiscent of brittle solids: after a primary creep regime characterized by a macroscopically homogeneous deformation and a power-law behavior which exponent is fully accounted for by linear viscoelasticity, fractures nucleate and grow logarithmically perpendicularly to shear, up to the sudden rupture of the gel. A single equation accounting for those two successive processes nicely captures the full rheological response. The failure time follows a decreasing power-law with the applied shear stress, similar to the Basquin law of fatigue for solids. These results are in excellent agreement with recent fiber-bundle models that include damage accumulation on elastic fibers and exemplify protein gels as model, brittle-like soft solids. Work funded by the European Research Council under Grant Agreement No. 258803.

  18. INFOGRAPHIC MODELING OF THE HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE OF THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM EXPOSED TO AN INNOVATIVE CONFLICT

    OpenAIRE

    Chulkov Vitaliy Olegovich; Rakhmonov Emomali Karimovich; Kas'yanov Vitaliy Fedorovich; Gusakova Elena Aleksandrovna

    2012-01-01

    This article deals with the infographic modeling of hierarchical management systems exposed to innovative conflicts. The authors analyze the facts that serve as conflict drivers in the construction management environment. The reasons for innovative conflicts include changes in hierarchical structures of management systems, adjustment of workers to new management conditions, changes in the ideology, etc. Conflicts under consideration may involve contradictions between requests placed by custom...

  19. Simulated evolution of fractures and fracture networks subject to thermal cooling: A coupled discrete element and heat conduction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Hai; Plummer, Mitchell; Podgorney, Robert

    2013-02-01

    Advancement of EGS requires improved prediction of fracture development and growth during reservoir stimulation and long-term operation. This, in turn, requires better understanding of the dynamics of the strongly coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes within fractured rocks. We have developed a physically based rock deformation and fracture propagation simulator by using a quasi-static discrete element model (DEM) to model mechanical rock deformation and fracture propagation induced by thermal stress and fluid pressure changes. We also developed a network model to simulate fluid flow and heat transport in both fractures and porous rock. In this paper, we describe results of simulations in which the DEM model and network flow & heat transport model are coupled together to provide realistic simulation of the changes of apertures and permeability of fractures and fracture networks induced by thermal cooling and fluid pressure changes within fractures. Various processes, such as Stokes flow in low velocity pores, convection-dominated heat transport in fractures, heat exchange between fluid-filled fractures and solid rock, heat conduction through low-permeability matrices and associated mechanical deformations are all incorporated into the coupled model. The effects of confining stresses, developing thermal stress and injection pressure on the permeability evolution of fracture and fracture networks are systematically investigated. Results are summarized in terms of implications for the development and evolution of fracture distribution during hydrofracturing and thermal stimulation for EGS.

  20. Hierarchical hybrid testability modeling and evaluation method based on information fusion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xishan Zhang; Kaoli Huang; Pengcheng Yan; Guangyao Lian

    2015-01-01

    In order to meet the demand of testability analysis and evaluation for complex equipment under a smal sample test in the equipment life cycle, the hierarchical hybrid testability model-ing and evaluation method (HHTME), which combines the testabi-lity structure model (TSM) with the testability Bayesian networks model (TBNM), is presented. Firstly, the testability network topo-logy of complex equipment is built by using the hierarchical hybrid testability modeling method. Secondly, the prior conditional prob-ability distribution between network nodes is determined through expert experience. Then the Bayesian method is used to update the conditional probability distribution, according to history test information, virtual simulation information and similar product in-formation. Final y, the learned hierarchical hybrid testability model (HHTM) is used to estimate the testability of equipment. Compared with the results of other modeling methods, the relative deviation of the HHTM is only 0.52%, and the evaluation result is the most accurate.

  1. Optimization of flow modeling in fractured media with discrete fracture network via percolation theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donado-Garzon, L. D.; Pardo, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Fractured media are very heterogeneous systems where occur complex physical and chemical processes to model. One of the possible approaches to conceptualize this type of massifs is the Discrete Fracture Network (DFN). Donado et al., modeled flow and transport in a granitic batholith based on this approach and found good fitting with hydraulic and tracer tests, but the computational cost was excessive due to a gigantic amount of elements to model. We present in this work a methodology based on percolation theory for reducing the number of elements and in consequence, to reduce the bandwidth of the conductance matrix and the execution time of each network. DFN poses as an excellent representation of all the set of fractures of the media, but not all the fractures of the media are part of the conductive network. Percolation theory is used to identify which nodes or fractures are not conductive, based on the occupation probability or percolation threshold. In a fractured system, connectivity determines the flow pattern in the fractured rock mass. This volume of fluid is driven through connection paths formed by the fractures, when the permeability of the rock is negligible compared to the fractures. In a population of distributed fractures, each of this that has no intersection with any connected fracture do not contribute to generate a flow field. This algorithm also permits us to erase these elements however they are water conducting and hence, refine even more the backbone of the network. We used 100 different generations of DFN that were optimized in this study using percolation theory. In each of the networks calibrate hydrodynamic parameters as hydraulic conductivity and specific storage coefficient, for each of the five families of fractures, yielding a total of 10 parameters to estimate, at each generation. Since the effects of the distribution of fault orientation changes the value of the percolation threshold, but not the universal laws of classical

  2. Three-Dimensional Modeling of Fracture Clusters in Geothermal Reservoirs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghassemi, Ahmad [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)

    2017-08-11

    The objective of this is to develop a 3-D numerical model for simulating mode I, II, and III (tensile, shear, and out-of-plane) propagation of multiple fractures and fracture clusters to accurately predict geothermal reservoir stimulation using the virtual multi-dimensional internal bond (VMIB). Effective development of enhanced geothermal systems can significantly benefit from improved modeling of hydraulic fracturing. In geothermal reservoirs, where the temperature can reach or exceed 350oC, thermal and poro-mechanical processes play an important role in fracture initiation and propagation. In this project hydraulic fracturing of hot subsurface rock mass will be numerically modeled by extending the virtual multiple internal bond theory and implementing it in a finite element code, WARP3D, a three-dimensional finite element code for solid mechanics. The new constitutive model along with the poro-thermoelastic computational algorithms will allow modeling the initiation and propagation of clusters of fractures, and extension of pre-existing fractures. The work will enable the industry to realistically model stimulation of geothermal reservoirs. The project addresses the Geothermal Technologies Office objective of accurately predicting geothermal reservoir stimulation (GTO technology priority item). The project goal will be attained by: (i) development of the VMIB method for application to 3D analysis of fracture clusters; (ii) development of poro- and thermoelastic material sub-routines for use in 3D finite element code WARP3D; (iii) implementation of VMIB and the new material routines in WARP3D to enable simulation of clusters of fractures while accounting for the effects of the pore pressure, thermal stress and inelastic deformation; (iv) simulation of 3D fracture propagation and coalescence and formation of clusters, and comparison with laboratory compression tests; and (v) application of the model to interpretation of injection experiments (planned by our

  3. Hierarchical spatial capture-recapture models: Modeling population density from stratified populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.

    2014-01-01

    Capture–recapture studies are often conducted on populations that are stratified by space, time or other factors. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial capture–recapture (SCR) modelling framework for stratified populations – when sampling occurs within multiple distinct spatial and temporal strata.We describe a hierarchical model that integrates distinct models for both the spatial encounter history data from capture–recapture sampling, and also for modelling variation in density among strata. We use an implementation of data augmentation to parameterize the model in terms of a latent categorical stratum or group membership variable, which provides a convenient implementation in popular BUGS software packages.We provide an example application to an experimental study involving small-mammal sampling on multiple trapping grids over multiple years, where the main interest is in modelling a treatment effect on population density among the trapping grids.Many capture–recapture studies involve some aspect of spatial or temporal replication that requires some attention to modelling variation among groups or strata. We propose a hierarchical model that allows explicit modelling of group or strata effects. Because the model is formulated for individual encounter histories and is easily implemented in the BUGS language and other free software, it also provides a general framework for modelling individual effects, such as are present in SCR models.

  4. Usability Prediction & Ranking of SDLC Models Using Fuzzy Hierarchical Usability Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Deepak; Ahlawat, Anil K.; Sagar, Kalpna

    2017-06-01

    Evaluation of software quality is an important aspect for controlling and managing the software. By such evaluation, improvements in software process can be made. The software quality is significantly dependent on software usability. Many researchers have proposed numbers of usability models. Each model considers a set of usability factors but do not cover all the usability aspects. Practical implementation of these models is still missing, as there is a lack of precise definition of usability. Also, it is very difficult to integrate these models into current software engineering practices. In order to overcome these challenges, this paper aims to define the term `usability' using the proposed hierarchical usability model with its detailed taxonomy. The taxonomy considers generic evaluation criteria for identifying the quality components, which brings together factors, attributes and characteristics defined in various HCI and software models. For the first time, the usability model is also implemented to predict more accurate usability values. The proposed system is named as fuzzy hierarchical usability model that can be easily integrated into the current software engineering practices. In order to validate the work, a dataset of six software development life cycle models is created and employed. These models are ranked according to their predicted usability values. This research also focuses on the detailed comparison of proposed model with the existing usability models.

  5. Hierarchical diagnostic classification models morphing into unidimensional 'diagnostic' classification models-a commentary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Davier, Matthias; Haberman, Shelby J

    2014-04-01

    This commentary addresses the modeling and final analytical path taken, as well as the terminology used, in the paper "Hierarchical diagnostic classification models: a family of models for estimating and testing attribute hierarchies" by Templin and Bradshaw (Psychometrika, doi: 10.1007/s11336-013-9362-0, 2013). It raises several issues concerning use of cognitive diagnostic models that either assume attribute hierarchies or assume a certain form of attribute interactions. The issues raised are illustrated with examples, and references are provided for further examination.

  6. Automatic thoracic anatomy segmentation on CT images using hierarchical fuzzy models and registration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Kaioqiong; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Odhner, Dewey; Tong, Yubing; Torigian, Drew A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper proposes a thoracic anatomy segmentation method based on hierarchical recognition and delineation guided by a built fuzzy model. Labeled binary samples for each organ are registered and aligned into a 3D fuzzy set representing the fuzzy shape model for the organ. The gray intensity distributions of the corresponding regions of the organ in the original image are recorded in the model. The hierarchical relation and mean location relation between different organs are also captured in the model. Following the hierarchical structure and location relation, the fuzzy shape model of different organs is registered to the given target image to achieve object recognition. A fuzzy connected delineation method is then used to obtain the final segmentation result of organs with seed points provided by recognition. The hierarchical structure and location relation integrated in the model provide the initial parameters for registration and make the recognition efficient and robust. The 3D fuzzy model combined with hierarchical affine registration ensures that accurate recognition can be obtained for both non-sparse and sparse organs. The results on real images are presented and shown to be better than a recently reported fuzzy model-based anatomy recognition strategy.

  7. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  8. Use of hierarchical models to analyze European trends in congenital anomaly prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavadino, Alana; Prieto-Merino, David; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Greenlees, Ruth; Haeusler, Martin; Khoshnood, Babak; Kurinczuk, Jenny; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; O'Mahony, Mary; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; de Walle, Hermien; Wellesley, Diana; Morris, Joan K

    2016-06-01

    Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Despite known associations between different anomalies, current surveillance methods examine trends within each subgroup separately. We aimed to evaluate whether hierarchical statistical methods that combine information from several subgroups simultaneously would enhance current surveillance methods using data collected by EUROCAT, a European network of population-based congenital anomaly registries. Ten-year trends (2003 to 2012) in 18 EUROCAT registries over 11 countries were analyzed for the following groups of anomalies: neural tube defects, congenital heart defects, digestive system, and chromosomal anomalies. Hierarchical Poisson regression models that combined related subgroups together according to EUROCAT's hierarchy of subgroup coding were applied. Results from hierarchical models were compared with those from Poisson models that consider each congenital anomaly separately. Hierarchical models gave similar results as those obtained when considering each anomaly subgroup in a separate analysis. Hierarchical models that included only around three subgroups showed poor convergence and were generally found to be over-parameterized. Larger sets of anomaly subgroups were found to be too heterogeneous to group together in this way. There were no substantial differences between independent analyses of each subgroup and hierarchical models when using the EUROCAT anomaly subgroups. Considering each anomaly separately, therefore, remains an appropriate method for the detection of potential changes in prevalence by surveillance systems. Hierarchical models do, however, remain an interesting alternative method of analysis when considering the risks of specific exposures in relation to the prevalence of congenital anomalies, which could be investigated in other studies. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:480-10, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition of performance in Approach-Avoidance Tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-01-01

    Common methods for analysing response time (RT) tasks, frequently used across different disciplines of psychology, suffer from a number of limitations such as the failure to directly measure the underlying latent processes of interest and the inability to take into account the uncertainty associated with each individual's point estimate of performance. Here, we discuss a Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model and apply it to RT data. This model allows researchers to decompose performance into meaningful psychological processes and to account optimally for individual differences and commonalities, even with relatively sparse data. We highlight the advantages of the Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition by applying it to performance on Approach-Avoidance Tasks, widely used in the emotion and psychopathology literature. Model fits for two experimental data-sets demonstrate that the model performs well. The Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model overcomes important limitations of current analysis procedures and provides deeper insight in latent psychological processes of interest.

  10. Physical model studies of dispersion in fracture systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, L.C.

    1985-04-01

    The purposes of the laboratory-scale fracture network experiments are to study mechanisms controlling solute transport under conditions of known fracture parameters, to evaluate injection-backflow test procedures under conditions of known reservoir parameters, and to acquire data for validation of numerical models. Validation of computer codes against laboratory data collected under controlled conditions provides reassurance that the codes deal with important processes in a realistic manner. Preliminary simulations of the dual-permeability physical model have been made using the FRACSL reservoir code. These simulations permit locating electrodes and piezometers in the most advantageous positions to record tracer migration and pressure response. Much of the physical modeling effort this year was oriented towards validating the particle tracking algorithm used in FRACSL, and developing a better theoretical understanding of transport processes in fractures. Experiments were conducted in single fractures and single fracture junctions, and data on tracer migration collected. The Prickett, Naymik, and Lonnquist Random Walk aquifer simulation program has been modfied to simulate flow in single fractures. The particle tracking algorithm was also used to simulate infinite parallel plates under conditions where analytical solutions to the transport equation could be derived. The first case is for zero diffusion in the fracture, and transport based on a parabolic velocity profile. The second case is for diffusion homogenizing the tracer solution across the fracture. The particle tracking algorithm matched both analytical solutions quite well, with the same grid for both simulations. 48 refs., 41 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Maximizing Adaptivity in Hierarchical Topological Models Using Cancellation Trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bremer, P; Pascucci, V; Hamann, B

    2008-12-08

    We present a highly adaptive hierarchical representation of the topology of functions defined over two-manifold domains. Guided by the theory of Morse-Smale complexes, we encode dependencies between cancellations of critical points using two independent structures: a traditional mesh hierarchy to store connectivity information and a new structure called cancellation trees to encode the configuration of critical points. Cancellation trees provide a powerful method to increase adaptivity while using a simple, easy-to-implement data structure. The resulting hierarchy is significantly more flexible than the one previously reported. In particular, the resulting hierarchy is guaranteed to be of logarithmic height.

  12. Classification errors in contingency tables analyzed with hierarchical log-linear models. Technical report No. 20

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korn, E L

    1978-08-01

    This thesis is concerned with the effect of classification error on contingency tables being analyzed with hierarchical log-linear models (independence in an I x J table is a particular hierarchical log-linear model). Hierarchical log-linear models provide a concise way of describing independence and partial independences between the different dimensions of a contingency table. The structure of classification errors on contingency tables that will be used throughout is defined. This structure is a generalization of Bross' model, but here attention is paid to the different possible ways a contingency table can be sampled. Hierarchical log-linear models and the effect of misclassification on them are described. Some models, such as independence in an I x J table, are preserved by misclassification, i.e., the presence of classification error will not change the fact that a specific table belongs to that model. Other models are not preserved by misclassification; this implies that the usual tests to see if a sampled table belong to that model will not be of the right significance level. A simple criterion will be given to determine which hierarchical log-linear models are preserved by misclassification. Maximum likelihood theory is used to perform log-linear model analysis in the presence of known misclassification probabilities. It will be shown that the Pitman asymptotic power of tests between different hierarchical log-linear models is reduced because of the misclassification. A general expression will be given for the increase in sample size necessary to compensate for this loss of power and some specific cases will be examined.

  13. Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Simultaneous EEG Source and Forward Model Reconstruction (SOFOMORE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole;

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface, and ele......In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface......, and electrode positions. We first present a hierarchical Bayesian framework for EEG source localization that jointly performs source and forward model reconstruction (SOFOMORE). Secondly, we evaluate the SOFOMORE model by comparison with source reconstruction methods that use fixed forward models. Simulated...... and real EEG data demonstrate that invoking a stochastic forward model leads to improved source estimates....

  14. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  15. Hierarchical ensemble of background models for PTZ-based video surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ning; Wu, Hefeng; Lin, Liang

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we study a novel hierarchical background model for intelligent video surveillance with the pan-tilt-zoom (PTZ) camera, and give rise to an integrated system consisting of three key components: background modeling, observed frame registration, and object tracking. First, we build the hierarchical background model by separating the full range of continuous focal lengths of a PTZ camera into several discrete levels and then partitioning the wide scene at each level into many partial fixed scenes. In this way, the wide scenes captured by a PTZ camera through rotation and zoom are represented by a hierarchical collection of partial fixed scenes. A new robust feature is presented for background modeling of each partial scene. Second, we locate the partial scenes corresponding to the observed frame in the hierarchical background model. Frame registration is then achieved by feature descriptor matching via fast approximate nearest neighbor search. Afterwards, foreground objects can be detected using background subtraction. Last, we configure the hierarchical background model into a framework to facilitate existing object tracking algorithms under the PTZ camera. Foreground extraction is used to assist tracking an object of interest. The tracking outputs are fed back to the PTZ controller for adjusting the camera properly so as to maintain the tracked object in the image plane. We apply our system on several challenging scenarios and achieve promising results.

  16. The hydro-mechanical modeling of the fractured media; Modelisation hydromecanique des milieux fractures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kadiri, I

    2002-10-15

    The hydro-mechanical modeling of the fractured media is quite complex. Simplifications are necessary for the modeling of such media, but, not always justified, Only permeable fractures are often considered. The rest of the network is approximated by an equivalent continuous medium. Even if we suppose that this approach is validated, the hydraulic and mechanical properties of the fractures and of the continuous medium are seldom known. Calibrations are necessary for the determination of these properties. Until now, one does not know very well the nature of measurements which must be carried out in order to carry on a modeling in discontinuous medium, nor elements of enough robust validation for this kind of modeling. For a better understanding of the hydro-mechanical phenomena in fractured media, two different sites have been selected for the work. The first is the site of Grimsel in Switzerland in which an underground laboratory is located at approximately 400 m of depth. The FEBEX experiment aims at the in-situ study of the consecutive phenomena due to the installation of a heat source representative of radioactive waste in the last 17 meters of the FEBEX tunnel in the laboratory of Grimsel. Only, the modeling of the hydro-mechanical of the excavation was model. The modeling of the Febex enabled us to establish a methodology of calibration of the hydraulic properties in the discontinuous media. However, this kind of study on such complex sites does not make possible to answer all the questions which arise on the hydro-mechanical behavior of the fractured media. We thus carried out modeling on an other site, smaller than the fist one and more accessible. The experimental site of Coaraze, in the Maritime Alps, is mainly constituted of limestone and fractures. Then the variation of water pressure along fractures is governed by the opening/closure sequence of a water gate. Normal displacement as well as the pore pressure along these fractures are recorded, and then

  17. Fracture and ductile vs. brittle behavior -- Theory, modeling and experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltz, G.E. [ed.] [Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Selinger, R.L.B. [ed.] [Catholic Univ., Washington, DC (United States); Kim, K.S. [ed.] [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States); Marder, M.P. [ed.] [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1999-08-01

    The symposium brought together the many communities that investigate the fundamentals of fracture, with special emphasis on the ductile/brittle transition across a broad spectrum of material classes, fracture at interfaces, and modelling fracture over various length scales. Theoretical techniques discussed ranged from first-principles electronic structure theory to atomistic simulation to mesoscale and continuum theories, along with studies of fractals and scaling in fracture. Experimental and theoretical talks were interspersed throughout all sessions, rather than being segregated. The contributions to this volume generally follow the topical outline upon which the symposium was organized. The first part, dealing with ductile vs. brittle behavior in metals, concerns itself with investigations of high-strength steel, magnesium alloys, ordered intermetallics, and Fe-Cr-Al alloys. The development of analytical methods based on micromechanical models, such as dislocation mechanics and cohesive/contact zone models, are covered in a follow-up section. Nonmetals, including silicon, are considered in Parts 3 and 4. Fractals, chaos, and scaling theories are taken up in Part 5, with a special emphasis on fracture in heterogeneous solids. Modelling based on large populations of dislocations has substantially progressed during the past three years; hence, a section devoted to crystal plasticity and mesoscale dislocation modelling appears next. Finally, the technologically significant area of interfacial fracture, with applications to composites and intergranular fracture, is taken up in Part 7. Separate abstracts were prepared for most of the papers in this book.

  18. Developing fracture density models using terrestrial laser scan data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollyea, R.; Fairley, J. P.; Podgorney, R. K.; McLing, T. L.

    2010-12-01

    Characterizing fracture heterogeneity for subsurface flow and transport modeling has been of interest to the hydrogeologic community for many years. Currently, stochastic continuum and discrete fracture representations have come to be accepted as two of the most commonly used tools for incorporating fracture heterogeneity into subsurface flow and transport models. In this research, ground-based lidar data are used to model the surface roughness of vertical basalt exposures in the East Snake River Plain, Idaho (ESRP) as a surrogate for fracture density. The surface roughness is modeled by discretizing the dataset over a regular grid and fitting a regression plane to each gridblock. The standard deviation of distance from the block data to the regression plane is then assumed to represent a measure of roughness for each gridblock. Two-dimensional plots of surface roughness from ESRP exposures indicate discrete fractures can be quantitatively differentiated from unfractured rock at 0.25- meter resolution. This methodology may have broad applications for characterizing fracture heterogeneity. One application, demonstrated here, is to capture high resolution (low noise) covariance statistics for building stochastic property sets to be used in large scale flow simulations. Additional applications may include using surface roughness datasets as training images for multiple-point geostatistics analysis and for constraining discrete fracture models.

  19. A Hierarchical Linear Model with Factor Analysis Structure at Level 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazaki, Yasuo; Frank, Kenneth A.

    2006-01-01

    In this article the authors develop a model that employs a factor analysis structure at Level 2 of a two-level hierarchical linear model (HLM). The model (HLM2F) imposes a structure on a deficient rank Level 2 covariance matrix [tau], and facilitates estimation of a relatively large [tau] matrix. Maximum likelihood estimators are derived via the…

  20. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mantzouni, Irene; Sørensen, Helle; O'Hara, Robert B.;

    2010-01-01

    and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified...

  1. Numerical modeling of multiphase flow in rough and propped fractures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabrowski, Marcin; Dzikowski, Michał; Jasinski, Lukasz; Olkiewicz, Piotr

    2017-04-01

    crystalline rocks. The detailed pattern of flow paths and effective fracture conductivity are largely dependent on the level of confining stresses and fracture wall roughness, which both determine the shape and distribution of fracture apertures and contact areas. The distribution of proppant grains, which are used to maintain apertures of hydraulic fractures, is a key factor governing fracture flow in industrial applications. The flow of multiphase fluids in narrow apertures of rock fractures may substantially differ from the flow of a single-phase fluid. For example, multiphase flow effects play an important role during all stages of unconventional reservoir life cycle. Multiphase flow conditions are also expected to prevail in high temperature geothermal fields and during the transport of non aqueous phase liquid contaminants in groundwaters. We use direct numerical simulations to study single- and multiphase flow in rough and propped fractures. We compute the fluid flow using either the finite element or the lattice Boltzmann method. Body-fitting, unstructured computational meshes are used to improve the numerical accuracy. The fluid-fluid and fluid-solid interfaces are directly resolved and an implicit approach to surface tension is used to alleviate restrictions due to capillary CFL condition. In FEM simulations, the Beltrami-Laplace operator is integrated by parts to avoid interface curvature computation during evaluation of the surface tension term. We derive and validate an upscaled approach to Stokes flow in propped and rough fractures. Our upscaled 2.5D fracture flow model features a Brinkman term and is capable of treating no-slip boundary conditions on the rims of proppant grains and fracture wall contact areas. The Stokes-Brinkman fracture flow model provides an improvement over the Reynolds model, both in terms of the effective fracture permeability and the local flow pattern. We present numerical and analytical models for the propped fracture

  2. Hierarchical linear model: thinking outside the traditional repeated-measures analysis-of-variance box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lininger, Monica; Spybrook, Jessaca; Cheatham, Christopher C

    2015-04-01

    Longitudinal designs are common in the field of athletic training. For example, in the Journal of Athletic Training from 2005 through 2010, authors of 52 of the 218 original research articles used longitudinal designs. In 50 of the 52 studies, a repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to analyze the data. A possible alternative to this approach is the hierarchical linear model, which has been readily accepted in other medical fields. In this short report, we demonstrate the use of the hierarchical linear model for analyzing data from a longitudinal study in athletic training. We discuss the relevant hypotheses, model assumptions, analysis procedures, and output from the HLM 7.0 software. We also examine the advantages and disadvantages of using the hierarchical linear model with repeated measures and repeated-measures analysis of variance for longitudinal data.

  3. Hierarchical Linear Model: Thinking Outside the Traditional Repeated-Measures Analysis-of-Variance Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lininger, Monica; Spybrook, Jessaca; Cheatham, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Longitudinal designs are common in the field of athletic training. For example, in the Journal of Athletic Training from 2005 through 2010, authors of 52 of the 218 original research articles used longitudinal designs. In 50 of the 52 studies, a repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to analyze the data. A possible alternative to this approach is the hierarchical linear model, which has been readily accepted in other medical fields. In this short report, we demonstrate the use of the hierarchical linear model for analyzing data from a longitudinal study in athletic training. We discuss the relevant hypotheses, model assumptions, analysis procedures, and output from the HLM 7.0 software. We also examine the advantages and disadvantages of using the hierarchical linear model with repeated measures and repeated-measures analysis of variance for longitudinal data. PMID:25875072

  4. Robust Real-Time Music Transcription with a Compositional Hierarchical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesek, Matevž; Leonardis, Aleš; Marolt, Matija

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a new compositional hierarchical model for robust music transcription. Its main features are unsupervised learning of a hierarchical representation of input data, transparency, which enables insights into the learned representation, as well as robustness and speed which make it suitable for real-world and real-time use. The model consists of multiple layers, each composed of a number of parts. The hierarchical nature of the model corresponds well to hierarchical structures in music. The parts in lower layers correspond to low-level concepts (e.g. tone partials), while the parts in higher layers combine lower-level representations into more complex concepts (tones, chords). The layers are learned in an unsupervised manner from music signals. Parts in each layer are compositions of parts from previous layers based on statistical co-occurrences as the driving force of the learning process. In the paper, we present the model’s structure and compare it to other hierarchical approaches in the field of music information retrieval. We evaluate the model’s performance for the multiple fundamental frequency estimation. Finally, we elaborate on extensions of the model towards other music information retrieval tasks. PMID:28046074

  5. To Aggregate or Not and Potentially Better Questions for Clustered Data: The Need for Hierarchical Linear Modeling in CTE Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimon, Kim

    2012-01-01

    Using state achievement data that are openly accessible, this paper demonstrates the application of hierarchical linear modeling within the context of career technical education research. Three prominent approaches to analyzing clustered data (i.e., modeling aggregated data, modeling disaggregated data, modeling hierarchical data) are discussed…

  6. Hierarchical Linear Models for Energy Prediction using Inertial Sensors: A Comparative Study for Treadmill Walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vathsangam, Harshvardhan; Emken, B Adar; Schroeder, E Todd; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Sukhatme, Gaurav S

    2013-12-01

    Walking is a commonly available activity to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Accurately tracking and measuring calories expended during walking can improve user feedback and intervention measures. Inertial sensors are a promising measurement tool to achieve this purpose. An important aspect in mapping inertial sensor data to energy expenditure is the question of normalizing across physiological parameters. Common approaches such as weight scaling require validation for each new population. An alternative is to use a hierarchical approach to model subject-specific parameters at one level and cross-subject parameters connected by physiological variables at a higher level. In this paper, we evaluate an inertial sensor-based hierarchical model to measure energy expenditure across a target population. We first determine the optimal movement and physiological features set to represent data. Periodicity based features are more accurate (phierarchical model with a subject-specific regression model and weight exponent scaled models. Subject-specific models perform significantly better (pmodels at all exponent scales whereas the hierarchical model performed worse than both. However, using an informed prior from the hierarchical model produces similar errors to using a subject-specific model with large amounts of training data (phierarchical modeling is a promising technique for generalized prediction energy expenditure prediction across a target population in a clinical setting.

  7. User Demand Aware Grid Scheduling Model with Hierarchical Load Balancing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Suresh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Grid computing is a collection of computational and data resources, providing the means to support both computational intensive applications and data intensive applications. In order to improve the overall performance and efficient utilization of the resources, an efficient load balanced scheduling algorithm has to be implemented. The scheduling approach also needs to consider user demand to improve user satisfaction. This paper proposes a dynamic hierarchical load balancing approach which considers load of each resource and performs load balancing. It minimizes the response time of the jobs and improves the utilization of the resources in grid environment. By considering the user demand of the jobs, the scheduling algorithm also improves the user satisfaction. The experimental results show the improvement of the proposed load balancing method.

  8. Adaptive Multiscale Modeling of Geochemical Impacts on Fracture Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molins, S.; Trebotich, D.; Steefel, C. I.; Deng, H.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding fracture evolution is essential for many subsurface energy applications, including subsurface storage, shale gas production, fracking, CO2 sequestration, and geothermal energy extraction. Geochemical processes in particular play a significant role in the evolution of fractures through dissolution-driven widening, fines migration, and/or fracture sealing due to precipitation. One obstacle to understanding and exploiting geochemical fracture evolution is that it is a multiscale process. However, current geochemical modeling of fractures cannot capture this multi-scale nature of geochemical and mechanical impacts on fracture evolution, and is limited to either a continuum or pore-scale representation. Conventional continuum-scale models treat fractures as preferential flow paths, with their permeability evolving as a function (often, a cubic law) of the fracture aperture. This approach has the limitation that it oversimplifies flow within the fracture in its omission of pore scale effects while also assuming well-mixed conditions. More recently, pore-scale models along with advanced characterization techniques have allowed for accurate simulations of flow and reactive transport within the pore space (Molins et al., 2014, 2015). However, these models, even with high performance computing, are currently limited in their ability to treat tractable domain sizes (Steefel et al., 2013). Thus, there is a critical need to develop an adaptive modeling capability that can account for separate properties and processes, emergent and otherwise, in the fracture and the rock matrix at different spatial scales. Here we present an adaptive modeling capability that treats geochemical impacts on fracture evolution within a single multiscale framework. Model development makes use of the high performance simulation capability, Chombo-Crunch, leveraged by high resolution characterization and experiments. The modeling framework is based on the adaptive capability in Chombo

  9. Radon transport in fractured soil. Laboratory experiments and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoff, A.

    1997-10-01

    Radon (Rn-222) transport in fractured soil has been investigated by laboratory experiments and by modelling. Radon transport experiments have been performed with two sand columns (homogeneous and inhomogeneous) and one undisturbed clayey till column containing a net of preferential flow paths (root holes). A numerical model (the finite-element model FRACTRAN) and an analytic model (a pinhole model) have been applied in simulations if soil gas and radon transport in fractured soil. Experiments and model calculations are included in a discussion of radon entry rates into houses placed on fractured soil. The main conclusion is, that fractures does not in general alter transport of internally generated radon out of soil, when the pressure and flow conditions in the soil is comparable to the conditions prevailing under a house. This indicates the important result, that fractures in soil have no impact on radon entry into a house beyond that of an increased gas permeability, but a more thorough investigation of this subject is needed. Only in the case where the soil is exposed to large pressure gradients, relative to gradients induced by a house, may it be possible to observe effects of radon exchange between fractures and matrix. (au) 52 tabs., 60 ill., 5 refs.

  10. Hierarchical modeling for reliability analysis using Markov models. B.S./M.S. Thesis - MIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagundo, Arturo

    1994-01-01

    Markov models represent an extremely attractive tool for the reliability analysis of many systems. However, Markov model state space grows exponentially with the number of components in a given system. Thus, for very large systems Markov modeling techniques alone become intractable in both memory and CPU time. Often a particular subsystem can be found within some larger system where the dependence of the larger system on the subsystem is of a particularly simple form. This simple dependence can be used to decompose such a system into one or more subsystems. A hierarchical technique is presented which can be used to evaluate these subsystems in such a way that their reliabilities can be combined to obtain the reliability for the full system. This hierarchical approach is unique in that it allows the subsystem model to pass multiple aggregate state information to the higher level model, allowing more general systems to be evaluated. Guidelines are developed to assist in the system decomposition. An appropriate method for determining subsystem reliability is also developed. This method gives rise to some interesting numerical issues. Numerical error due to roundoff and integration are discussed at length. Once a decomposition is chosen, the remaining analysis is straightforward but tedious. However, an approach is developed for simplifying the recombination of subsystem reliabilities. Finally, a real world system is used to illustrate the use of this technique in a more practical context.

  11. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the space - time diffusion patterns of cholera epidemic in Kumasi, Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osei, Frank B.; Osei, F.B.; Duker, Alfred A.; Stein, A.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space-time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint

  12. Measuring Service Quality in Higher Education: Development of a Hierarchical Model (HESQUAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teeroovengadum, Viraiyan; Kamalanabhan, T. J.; Seebaluck, Ashley Keshwar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to develop and empirically test a hierarchical model for measuring service quality in higher education. Design/methodology/approach: The first phase of the study consisted of qualitative research methods and a comprehensive literature review, which allowed the development of a conceptual model comprising 53 service quality…

  13. Augmenting Visual Analysis in Single-Case Research with Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Dawn H.; Gagne, Phill; Fredrick, Laura D.; Alberto, Paul A.; Waugh, Rebecca E.; Haardorfer, Regine

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) can be used to enhance visual analysis of single-case research (SCR) designs. First, the authors demonstrated the use of growth modeling via HLM to augment visual analysis of a sophisticated single-case study. Data were used from a delayed multiple baseline…

  14. Hierarchical Linear Modeling with Maximum Likelihood, Restricted Maximum Likelihood, and Fully Bayesian Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boedeker, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) is a useful tool when analyzing data collected from groups. There are many decisions to be made when constructing and estimating a model in HLM including which estimation technique to use. Three of the estimation techniques available when analyzing data with HLM are maximum likelihood, restricted maximum…

  15. Missing Data Treatments at the Second Level of Hierarchical Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    St. Clair, Suzanne W.

    2011-01-01

    The current study evaluated the performance of traditional versus modern MDTs in the estimation of fixed-effects and variance components for data missing at the second level of an hierarchical linear model (HLM) model across 24 different study conditions. Variables manipulated in the analysis included, (a) number of Level-2 variables with missing…

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the space-time diffusion patterns of cholera epidemic in Kumasi, Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osei, Frank B.; Duker, Alfred A.; Stein, Alfred

    2011-01-01

    This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space-time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint

  17. The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.K. Francke; G.A. Vos

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends, an

  18. Measuring Service Quality in Higher Education: Development of a Hierarchical Model (HESQUAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teeroovengadum, Viraiyan; Kamalanabhan, T. J.; Seebaluck, Ashley Keshwar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to develop and empirically test a hierarchical model for measuring service quality in higher education. Design/methodology/approach: The first phase of the study consisted of qualitative research methods and a comprehensive literature review, which allowed the development of a conceptual model comprising 53 service quality…

  19. A Modeling Approach to Fiber Fracture in Melt Impregnation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Feng; Zhang, Cong; Yu, Yang; Xin, Chunling; Tang, Ke; He, Yadong

    2017-02-01

    The effect of process variables such as roving pulling speed, melt temperature and number of pins on the fiber fracture during the processing of thermoplastic based composites was investigated in this study. The melt impregnation was used in this process of continuous glass fiber reinforced thermoplastic composites. Previous investigators have suggested a variety of models for melt impregnation, while comparatively little effort has been spent on modeling the fiber fracture caused by the viscous resin. Herein, a mathematical model was developed for impregnation process to predict the fiber fracture rate and describe the experimental results with the Weibull intensity distribution function. The optimal parameters of this process were obtained by orthogonal experiment. The results suggest that the fiber fracture is caused by viscous shear stress on fiber bundle in melt impregnation mold when pulling the fiber bundle.

  20. Fictitious Crack Model of Concrete Fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brincker, Rune; Dahl, H.

    1989-01-01

    The substructure method introduced by Petersson is reformulated for the three-point bending specimen in order to obtain complete load-displacement relations without significant truncation. The problem of instability caused by the linearization of the softening in the fracture zone is discussed......, and an alternative energy formulation is given so that it is possible to distinguish between stable and unstable situations. The reformulated substructure method is implemented on computer to give a multilinear stress crack opening displacement relation for the material in the fracture zone, and some qualitative...

  1. Hierarchical Linear Modeling for Analysis of Ecological Momentary Assessment Data in Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terhorst, Lauren; Beck, Kelly Battle; McKeon, Ashlee B; Graham, Kristin M; Ye, Feifei; Shiffman, Saul

    2017-08-01

    Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) methods collect real-time data in real-world environments, which allow physical medicine and rehabilitation researchers to examine objective outcome data and reduces bias from retrospective recall. The statistical analysis of EMA data is directly related to the research question and the temporal design of the study. Hierarchical linear modeling, which accounts for multiple observations from the same participant, is a particularly useful approach to analyzing EMA data. The objective of this paper was to introduce the process of conducting hierarchical linear modeling analyses with EMA data. This is accomplished using exemplars from recent physical medicine and rehabilitation literature.

  2. Modeling elastic tensile fractures in snow using nonlocal damage mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borstad, C. P.; McClung, D. M.

    2011-12-01

    The initiation and propagation of tensile fractures in snow and ice are fundamental to numerous important physical processes in the cryosphere, from iceberg calving to ice shelf rift propagation to slab avalanche release. The heterogeneous nature of snow and ice, their proximity to the melting temperature, and the varied governing timescales typically lead to nonlinear fracture behavior which does not follow the predictions of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM). Furthermore, traditional fracture mechanics is formally inapplicable for predicting crack initiation in the absence of a pre-existing flaw or stress concentration. An alternative to fracture mechanics is continuum damage mechanics, which accounts for the material degradation associated with cracking in a numerically efficient framework. However, damage models which are formulated locally (e.g. stress and strain are defined as point properties) suffer from mesh-sensitive crack trajectories, spurious localization of damage and improper fracture energy dissipation with mesh refinement. Nonlocal formulations of damage, which smear the effects of the material heterogeneity over an intrinsic length scale related to the material microstructure, overcome these difficulties and lead to numerically efficient and mesh-objective simulations of the tensile failure of heterogeneous materials. We present the results of numerical simulations of tensile fracture initiation and propagation in cohesive snow using a nonlocal damage model. Seventeen beam bending experiments, both notched and unnotched, were conducted using blocks of cohesive dry snow extracted from an alpine snowpack. Material properties and fracture parameters were calculated from the experimental data using beam theory and quasi-brittle fracture mechanics. Using these parameters, a nonlocal isotropic damage model was applied to two-dimensional finite element meshes of the same scale as the experiments. The model was capable of simulating the propagation

  3. A semi-analytical model for the flow behavior of naturally fractured formations with multi-scale fracture networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pin; Cheng, Linsong; Huang, Shijun; Wu, Yonghui

    2016-06-01

    This paper presents a semi-analytical model for the flow behavior of naturally fractured formations with multi-scale fracture networks. The model dynamically couples an analytical dual-porosity model with a numerical discrete fracture model. The small-scale fractures with the matrix are idealized as a dual-porosity continuum and an analytical flow solution is derived based on source functions in Laplace domain. The large-scale fractures are represented explicitly as the major fluid conduits and the flow is numerically modeled, also in Laplace domain. This approach allows us to include finer details of the fracture network characteristics while keeping the computational work manageable. For example, the large-scale fracture network may have complex geometry and varying conductivity, and the computations can be done at predetermined, discrete times, without any grids in the dual-porosity continuum. The validation of the semi-analytical model is demonstrated in comparison to the solution of ECLIPSE reservoir simulator. The simulation is fast, gridless and enables rapid model setup. On the basis of the model, we provide detailed analysis of the flow behavior of a horizontal production well in fractured reservoir with multi-scale fracture networks. The study has shown that the system may exhibit six flow regimes: large-scale fracture network linear flow, bilinear flow, small-scale fracture network linear flow, pseudosteady-state flow, interporosity flow and pseudoradial flow. During the first four flow periods, the large-scale fracture network behaves as if it only drains in the small-scale fracture network; that is, the effect of the matrix is negligibly small. The characteristics of the bilinear flow and the small-scale fracture network linear flow are predominantly determined by the dimensionless large-scale fracture conductivity. And low dimensionless fracture conductivity will generate large pressure drops in the large-scale fractures surrounding the wellbore. With

  4. Quantifying and reducing uncertainties in estimated soil CO2 fluxes with hierarchical data-model integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Kiona; Ryan, Edmund; Dijkstra, Feike A.; Pendall, Elise

    2016-12-01

    Nonsteady state chambers are often employed to measure soil CO2 fluxes. CO2 concentrations (C) in the headspace are sampled at different times (t), and fluxes (f) are calculated from regressions of C versus t based on a limited number of observations. Variability in the data can lead to poor fits and unreliable f estimates; groups with too few observations or poor fits are often discarded, resulting in "missing" f values. We solve these problems by fitting linear (steady state) and nonlinear (nonsteady state, diffusion based) models of C versus t, within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Data are from the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment study that manipulated atmospheric CO2, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation. CO2 was collected from static chambers biweekly during five growing seasons, resulting in >12,000 samples and >3100 groups and associated fluxes. We compare f estimates based on nonhierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian (B versus HB) versions of the linear and diffusion-based (L versus D) models, resulting in four different models (BL, BD, HBL, and HBD). Three models fit the data exceptionally well (R2 ≥ 0.98), but the BD model was inferior (R2 = 0.87). The nonhierarchical models (BL and BD) produced highly uncertain f estimates (wide 95% credible intervals), whereas the hierarchical models (HBL and HBD) produced very precise estimates. Of the hierarchical versions, the linear model (HBL) underestimated f by 33% relative to the nonsteady state model (HBD). The hierarchical models offer improvements upon traditional nonhierarchical approaches to estimating f, and we provide example code for the models.

  5. A first order system model of fracture healing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiao-ping; ZHANG Xian-long; LI Zhu-guo; YU Xin-gang

    2005-01-01

    A first order system model is proposed for simulating the influence of stress stimulation on fracture strength during fracture healing. To validate the model, the diaphyses of bilateral tibiae in 70 New Zealand rabbits were osteotomized and fixed with rigid plates and stress-relaxation plates, respectively. Stress shielding rate and ultimate bending strength of the healing bone were measured at 2 to 48 weeks postoperatively. Ratios of stress stimulation and fracture strength of the healing bone to those of intact bone were taken as the system input and output. The assumed first order system model can approximate the experimental data on fracture strength from the input of stress stimulation over time, both for the rigid plate group and the stress-relaxation plate group, with different system parameters of time constant and gain. The fitting curve indicates that the effect of mechanical stimulus occurs mainly in late stages of healing. First order system can model the stress adaptation process of fracture healing. This approach presents a simple bio-mathematical model of the relationship between stress stimulation and fracture strength, and has the potential to optimize planning of functional exercises and conduct parametric studies.

  6. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. A Privacy Data-Oriented Hierarchical MapReduce Programming Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiwen Han

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available To realize privacy data protection efficiently in hybrid cloud service, a hierarchical control architecture based multi-cluster MapReduce programming model (the Hierarchical MapReduce Model,HMR is presented. Under this hierarchical control architecture,  data isolation and placement among private cloud and public clouds according to the data privacy characteristic is implemented by the control center in private cloud.  And then, to perform the corresponding distributed parallel computation correctly under the multi-clusters mode that is different to the conventional single-cluster mode, the Map-Reduce-GlobalReduce three stage scheduling process is designed. Limiting the computation about privacy data in private cloud while outsourcing the computation about non-privacy data to public clouds as much as possible, HMR reaches the performance of both security and low cost.  

  8. Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chan, Hing Kai

    2013-01-01

    Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information.   This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well.   Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment  comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.

  9. Sensor Network Data Fault Detection using Hierarchical Bayesian Space-Time Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ni, Kevin; Pottie, G J

    2009-01-01

    We present a new application of hierarchical Bayesian space-time (HBST) modeling: data fault detection in sensor networks primarily used in environmental monitoring situations. To show the effectiveness of HBST modeling, we develop a rudimentary tagging system to mark data that does not fit with given models. Using this, we compare HBST modeling against first order linear autoregressive (AR) modeling, which is a commonly used alternative due to its simplicity. We show that while HBST is mo...

  10. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    , constraints are introduced to ensure the conformity of the estimates to a gien global structure. Hierarchical models are then utilized as a tool to ccomodate global model uncertainties via parametric variabilities within the structure. The global parameters and their associated uncertainties are estimated...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality.......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...

  11. Groundwater degassing in fractured rock: Modelling and data comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jarsjoe, J.; Destouni, G. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Water Resources Engineering

    1998-11-01

    Dissolved gas may be released from deep groundwater in the vicinity of open boreholes and drifts, where the water pressures are relatively low. Degassing of groundwater may influence observations of hydraulic conditions made in drifts, interpretation of experiments performed close to drifts, and buffer mass and backfill performance, particularly during emplacement and repository closure. Under certain conditions, considerable fracture inflow and transmissivity reductions have been observed during degassing experiments in the field and in the laboratory; such reductions affect the outcome and interpretation of both hydraulic and tracer tests. We develop models for the estimation of the resulting degree of fracture gas saturation and the associated transmissivity reduction due to groundwater degassing in fractured rock. Derived expressions for bubble trapping probability show that fracture aperture variability and correlation length influence the conditions for capillary bubble trapping and gas accumulation. The laboratory observations of bubble trapping in an Aespoe fracture replica are consistent with the prediction of a relatively high probability of bubble trapping in this fracture. The prediction was based on the measured aperture distribution of the Aespoe fracture and the applied hydraulic gradient. Results also show that the conceptualisation of gas and water occupancy in a fracture greatly influences model predictions of gas saturation and relative transmissivity. Images from laboratory degassing experiments indicate that tight apertures are completely filled with water, whereas both gas and water exist in wider apertures under degassing conditions; implementation of this relation in our model resulted in the best agreement between predictions and laboratory observations. Model predictions for conditions similar to those prevailing in field for single fractures at great depths indicate that degassing effects in boreholes should generally be small, unless the

  12. INFOGRAPHIC MODELING OF THE HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE OF THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM EXPOSED TO AN INNOVATIVE CONFLICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chulkov Vitaliy Olegovich

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the infographic modeling of hierarchical management systems exposed to innovative conflicts. The authors analyze the facts that serve as conflict drivers in the construction management environment. The reasons for innovative conflicts include changes in hierarchical structures of management systems, adjustment of workers to new management conditions, changes in the ideology, etc. Conflicts under consideration may involve contradictions between requests placed by customers and the legislation, any risks that may originate from the above contradiction, conflicts arising from any failure to comply with any accepted standards of conduct, etc. One of the main objectives of the theory of hierarchical structures is to develop a model capable of projecting potential innovative conflicts. Models described in the paper reflect dynamic changes in patterns of external impacts within the conflict area. The simplest model element is a monad, or an indivisible set of characteristics of participants at the pre-set level. Interaction between two monads forms a diad. Modeling of situations that involve a different number of monads, diads, resources and impacts can improve methods used to control and manage hierarchical structures in the construction industry. However, in the absence of any mathematical models employed to simulate conflict-related events, processes and situations, any research into, projection and management of interpersonal and group-to-group conflicts are to be performed in the legal environment

  13. Relating Cohesive Zone Model to Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, John T.

    2010-01-01

    The conditions required for a cohesive zone model (CZM) to predict a failure load of a cracked structure similar to that obtained by a linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) analysis are investigated in this paper. This study clarifies why many different phenomenological cohesive laws can produce similar fracture predictions. Analytical results for five cohesive zone models are obtained, using five different cohesive laws that have the same cohesive work rate (CWR-area under the traction-separation curve) but different maximum tractions. The effect of the maximum traction on the predicted cohesive zone length and the remote applied load at fracture is presented. Similar to the small scale yielding condition for an LEFM analysis to be valid. the cohesive zone length also needs to be much smaller than the crack length. This is a necessary condition for a CZM to obtain a fracture prediction equivalent to an LEFM result.

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Sibonga, Jean Diane

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including

  15. HIERARCHICAL METHODOLOGY FOR MODELING HYDROGEN STORAGE SYSTEMS PART II: DETAILED MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, B; Donald L. Anton, D

    2008-12-22

    There is significant interest in hydrogen storage systems that employ a media which either adsorbs, absorbs or reacts with hydrogen in a nearly reversible manner. In any media based storage system the rate of hydrogen uptake and the system capacity is governed by a number of complex, coupled physical processes. To design and evaluate such storage systems, a comprehensive methodology was developed, consisting of a hierarchical sequence of models that range from scoping calculations to numerical models that couple reaction kinetics with heat and mass transfer for both the hydrogen charging and discharging phases. The scoping models were presented in Part I [1] of this two part series of papers. This paper describes a detailed numerical model that integrates the phenomena occurring when hydrogen is charged and discharged. A specific application of the methodology is made to a system using NaAlH{sub 4} as the storage media.

  16. Toward a Hierarchical Bayesian Framework for Modelling the Effect of Regional Diversity on Household Expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brodjol Sutijo Supri Ulama

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Household expenditure analysis was highly demanding for government in order to formulate its policy. Since household data was viewed as hierarchical structure with household nested in its regional residence which varies inter region, the contextual welfare analysis was needed. This study proposed to develop a hierarchical model for estimating household expenditure in an attempt to measure the effect of regional diversity by taking into account district characteristics and household attributes using a Bayesian approach. Approach: Due to the variation of household expenditure data which was captured by the three parameters of Log-Normal (LN3 distribution, the model was developed based on LN3 distribution. Data used in this study was household expenditure data in Central Java, Indonesia. Since, data were unbalanced and hierarchical models using a classical approach work well for balanced data, thus the estimation process was done by using Bayesian method with MCMC and Gibbs sampling. Results: The hierarchical Bayesian model based on LN3 distribution could be implemented to explain the variation of household expenditure using district characteristics and household attributes. Conclusion: The model shows that districts characteristics which include demographic and economic conditions of districts and the availability of public facilities which are strongly associated with a dimension of human development index, i.e., economic, education and health, do affect to household expenditure through its household attributes."

  17. Application of hierarchical genetic models to Raven and WAIS subtests: a Dutch twin study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijsdijk, Frühling V; Vernon, P A; Boomsma, Dorret I

    2002-05-01

    Hierarchical models of intelligence are highly informative and widely accepted. Application of these models to twin data, however, is sparse. This paper addresses the question of how a genetic hierarchical model fits the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS) subtests and the Raven Standard Progressive test score, collected in 194 18-year-old Dutch twin pairs. We investigated whether first-order group factors possess genetic and environmental variance independent of the higher-order general factor and whether the hierarchical structure is significant for all sources of variance. A hierarchical model with the 3 Cohen group-factors (verbal comprehension, perceptual organisation and freedom-from-distractibility) and a higher-order g factor showed the best fit to the phenotypic data and to additive genetic influences (A), whereas the unique environmental source of variance (E) could be modeled by a single general factor and specifics. There was no evidence for common environmental influences. The covariation among the WAIS group factors and the covariation between the group factors and the Raven is predominantly influenced by a second-order genetic factor and strongly support the notion of a biological basis of g.

  18. A Multiscale Time-Splitting Discrete Fracture Model of Nanoparticles Transport in Fractured Porous Media

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed F.

    2017-06-06

    Recently, applications of nanoparticles have been considered in many branches of petroleum engineering, especially, enhanced oil recovery. The current paper is devoted to investigate the problem of nanoparticles transport in fractured porous media, numerically. We employed the discrete-fracture model (DFM) to represent the flow and transport in the fractured formations. The system of the governing equations consists of the mass conservation law, Darcy\\'s law, nanoparticles concentration in water, deposited nanoparticles concentration on the pore-wall, and entrapped nanoparticles concentration in the pore-throat. The variation of porosity and permeability due to the nanoparticles deposition/entrapment on/in the pores is also considered. We employ the multiscale time-splitting strategy to control different time-step sizes for different physics, such as pressure and concentration. The cell-centered finite difference (CCFD) method is used for the spatial discretization. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed multiscale time splitting approach.

  19. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Self-Thinning Line for Chinese Fir in Southern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiongqing Zhang

    Full Text Available Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.Hook. plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF. Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc. on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.

  20. Simulation of Hydraulic and Natural Fracture Interaction Using a Coupled DFN-DEM Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Zhou; H. Huang; M. Deo

    2016-03-01

    The presence of natural fractures will usually result in a complex fracture network due to the interactions between hydraulic and natural fracture. The reactivation of natural fractures can generally provide additional flow paths from formation to wellbore which play a crucial role in improving the hydrocarbon recovery in these ultra-low permeability reservoir. Thus, accurate description of the geometry of discrete fractures and bedding is highly desired for accurate flow and production predictions. Compared to conventional continuum models that implicitly represent the discrete feature, Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models could realistically model the connectivity of discontinuities at both reservoir scale and well scale. In this work, a new hybrid numerical model that couples Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) and Dual-Lattice Discrete Element Method (DL-DEM) is proposed to investigate the interaction between hydraulic fracture and natural fractures. Based on the proposed model, the effects of natural fracture orientation, density and injection properties on hydraulic-natural fractures interaction are investigated.

  1. Numerical simulation on ferrofluid flow in fractured porous media based on discrete-fracture model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Tao; Yao, Jun; Huang, Zhaoqin; Yin, Xiaolong; Xie, Haojun; Zhang, Jianguang

    2017-06-01

    Water flooding is an efficient approach to maintain reservoir pressure and has been widely used to enhance oil recovery. However, preferential water pathways such as fractures can significantly decrease the sweep efficiency. Therefore, the utilization ratio of injected water is seriously affected. How to develop new flooding technology to further improve the oil recovery in this situation is a pressing problem. For the past few years, controllable ferrofluid has caused the extensive concern in oil industry as a new functional material. In the presence of a gradient in the magnetic field strength, a magnetic body force is produced on the ferrofluid so that the attractive magnetic forces allow the ferrofluid to be manipulated to flow in any desired direction through the control of the external magnetic field. In view of these properties, the potential application of using the ferrofluid as a new kind of displacing fluid for flooding in fractured porous media is been studied in this paper for the first time. Considering the physical process of the mobilization of ferrofluid through porous media by arrangement of strong external magnetic fields, the magnetic body force was introduced into the Darcy equation and deals with fractures based on the discrete-fracture model. The fully implicit finite volume method is used to solve mathematical model and the validity and accuracy of numerical simulation, which is demonstrated through an experiment with ferrofluid flowing in a single fractured oil-saturated sand in a 2-D horizontal cell. At last, the water flooding and ferrofluid flooding in a complex fractured porous media have been studied. The results showed that the ferrofluid can be manipulated to flow in desired direction through control of the external magnetic field, so that using ferrofluid for flooding can raise the scope of the whole displacement. As a consequence, the oil recovery has been greatly improved in comparison to water flooding. Thus, the ferrofluid

  2. Pressure transient modeling of a fractured geothermal reservior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    A fracture network model has been developed to simulate transient fluid flow behavior in a fractured rock mass. Included is a pressure-dependent aperture submodel to simulate behavior often seen in fractured systems. The model is used to simulate data from the Fenton Hill Hot Dry Rock (HDR) geothermal reservoir. Both low-pressure/low-flow-rate and high-pressure/high-flow-rate transient data are adequately simulated. The model parameters obtained suggest ways in which the model can be refined to achieve even more realistic fits to the data. The model is then used to demonstrate more efficient operating modes than the two-well circulating mode usually proposed for HDR reservoirs. 11 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Meta-Analysis in Higher Education: An Illustrative Example Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denson, Nida; Seltzer, Michael H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide higher education researchers with an illustrative example of meta-analysis utilizing hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). This article demonstrates the step-by-step process of meta-analysis using a recently-published study examining the effects of curricular and co-curricular diversity activities on racial…

  4. An accessible method for implementing hierarchical models with spatio-temporal abundance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Melvin B.; Koons, David N.

    2012-01-01

    A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, hierarchical statistical models remain somewhat difficult to use because of the necessary quantitative background needed to implement them, or because of the computational demands of using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate parameters. Fortunately, new tools have recently been developed that make it more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, ‘INLA’). We present a case study using two important game species in North America, the lesser and greater scaup, to demonstrate how INLA can be used to estimate the parameters in a hierarchical model that decouples observation error from process variation, and accounts for unknown sources of excess zeros as well as spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Ultimately, our goal was to make unbiased inference about spatial variation in population trends over time.

  5. The Hierarchical Factor Model of ADHD: Invariant across Age and National Groupings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toplak, Maggie E.; Sorge, Geoff B.; Flora, David B.; Chen, Wai; Banaschewski, Tobias; Buitelaar, Jan; Ebstein, Richard; Eisenberg, Jacques; Franke, Barbara; Gill, Michael; Miranda, Ana; Oades, Robert D.; Roeyers, Herbert; Rothenberger, Aribert; Sergeant, Joseph; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Thompson, Margaret; Tannock, Rosemary; Asherson, Philip; Faraone, Stephen V.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To examine the factor structure of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a clinical sample of 1,373 children and adolescents with ADHD and their 1,772 unselected siblings recruited from different countries across a large age range. Hierarchical and correlated factor analytic models were compared separately in the ADHD and…

  6. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Designs: Evaluation Using Latent Variable Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko

    2011-01-01

    Interval estimation of intraclass correlation coefficients in hierarchical designs is discussed within a latent variable modeling framework. A method accomplishing this aim is outlined, which is applicable in two-level studies where participants (or generally lower-order units) are clustered within higher-order units. The procedure can also be…

  7. Predicting Examination Performance Using an Expanded Integrated Hierarchical Model of Test Emotions and Achievement Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putwain, Dave; Deveney, Carolyn

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine an expanded integrative hierarchical model of test emotions and achievement goal orientations in predicting the examination performance of undergraduate students. Achievement goals were theorised as mediating the relationship between test emotions and performance. 120 undergraduate students completed…

  8. Coarse-Graining Parameterization and Multiscale Simulation of Hierarchical Systems. Part I: Theory and Model Formulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    can also refer to hierarchical parameterization transcending any scale, such as mesoscopic to continuum levels. Such a multiscale modeling paradigm ...particularly suited for systems defined by long-chain polymers with relatively short persistence lengths, or systems that are entropically driven...mechanics. Thus, we introduce a universal framework through a finer-trains-coarser multiscale paradigm , which effectively defines coarse- grain

  9. Enriching the Hierarchical Model of Achievement Motivation: Autonomous and Controlling Reasons Underlying Achievement Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michou, Aikaterini; Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Mouratidis, Athanasios; Lens, Willy

    2014-01-01

    Background: The hierarchical model of achievement motivation presumes that achievement goals channel the achievement motives of need for achievement and fear of failure towards motivational outcomes. Yet, less is known whether autonomous and controlling reasons underlying the pursuit of achievement goals can serve as additional pathways between…

  10. Examining Factors Affecting Science Achievement of Hong Kong in PISA 2006 Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Terence Yuk Ping; Lau, Kwok Chi

    2014-01-01

    This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to examine the influence of a range of factors on the science performances of Hong Kong students in PISA 2006. Hong Kong has been consistently ranked highly in international science assessments, such as Programme for International Student Assessment and Trends in International Mathematics and Science…

  11. Meta-Analysis in Higher Education: An Illustrative Example Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denson, Nida; Seltzer, Michael H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide higher education researchers with an illustrative example of meta-analysis utilizing hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). This article demonstrates the step-by-step process of meta-analysis using a recently-published study examining the effects of curricular and co-curricular diversity activities on racial…

  12. Analyzing Multilevel Data: Comparing Findings from Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Ordinary Least Squares Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocconi, Louis M.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the differing conclusions one may come to depending upon the type of analysis chosen, hierarchical linear modeling or ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. To illustrate this point, this study examined the influences of seniors' self-reported critical thinking abilities three ways: (1) an OLS regression with the student…

  13. Symptom structure of PTSD: support for a hierarchical model separating core PTSD symptoms from dysphoria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rademaker, A.R.; Minnen, A. van; Ebberink, F.; Zuiden, M. van; Geuze, E.

    2012-01-01

    Background: As of yet, no collective agreement has been reached regarding the precise factor structure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Several alternative factor-models have been proposed in the last decades. Objective: The current study examined the fit of a hierarchical adaptation of the

  14. Multi-Organ Contribution to the Metabolic Plasma Profile Using Hierarchical Modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frida Torell

    Full Text Available Hierarchical modelling was applied in order to identify the organs that contribute to the levels of metabolites in plasma. Plasma and organ samples from gut, kidney, liver, muscle and pancreas were obtained from mice. The samples were analysed using gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC TOF-MS at the Swedish Metabolomics centre, Umeå University, Sweden. The multivariate analysis was performed by means of principal component analysis (PCA and orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS. The main goal of this study was to investigate how each organ contributes to the metabolic plasma profile. This was performed using hierarchical modelling. Each organ was found to have a unique metabolic profile. The hierarchical modelling showed that the gut, kidney and liver demonstrated the greatest contribution to the metabolic pattern of plasma. For example, we found that metabolites were absorbed in the gut and transported to the plasma. The kidneys excrete branched chain amino acids (BCAAs and fatty acids are transported in the plasma to the muscles and liver. Lactic acid was also found to be transported from the pancreas to plasma. The results indicated that hierarchical modelling can be utilized to identify the organ contribution of unknown metabolites to the metabolic profile of plasma.

  15. Hierarchical linear modeling of longitudinal pedigree data for genetic association analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Qihua; B Hjelmborg, Jacob V; Thomassen, Mads;

    2014-01-01

    on the mean level of a phenotype, they are not sufficiently straightforward to handle the kinship correlation on the time-dependent trajectories of a phenotype. We introduce a 2-level hierarchical linear model to separately assess the genetic associations with the mean level and the rate of change...

  16. A developmental model of hierarchical stage structure in objective moral judgements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Boom; P.C.M. Molenaar

    1989-01-01

    A hierarchical structural model of moral judgment is proposed in which an S is characterized as occupying a particular moral stage. During development, the S's characteristic stage progresses along a latent, ordered dimension in an age-dependent way. Evaluation of prototypic statements representativ

  17. Decomposing Person and Occasion-Specific Effects: An Extension of Latent State-Trait (LSI) Theory to Hierarchical LST Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schermelleh-Engel, Karin; Keith, Nina; Moosbrugger, Helfried; Hodapp, Volker

    2004-01-01

    An extension of latent state-trait (LST) theory to hierarchical LST models is presented. In hierarchical LST models, the covariances between 2 or more latent traits are explained by a general 3rd-order factor, and the covariances between latent state residuals pertaining to different traits measured on the same measurement occasion are explained…

  18. Numerical modelling of sandstone uniaxial compression test using a mix-mode cohesive fracture model

    CERN Document Server

    Gui, Yilin; Kodikara, Jayantha

    2015-01-01

    A mix-mode cohesive fracture model considering tension, compression and shear material behaviour is presented, which has wide applications to geotechnical problems. The model considers both elastic and inelastic displacements. Inelastic displacement comprises fracture and plastic displacements. The norm of inelastic displacement is used to control the fracture behaviour. Meantime, a failure function describing the fracture strength is proposed. Using the internal programming FISH, the cohesive fracture model is programmed into a hybrid distinct element algorithm as encoded in Universal Distinct Element Code (UDEC). The model is verified through uniaxial tension and direct shear tests. The developed model is then applied to model the behaviour of a uniaxial compression test on Gosford sandstone. The modelling results indicate that the proposed cohesive fracture model is capable of simulating combined failure behaviour applicable to rock.

  19. Fracture propagation in Indiana Limestone interpreted via linear softening cohesive fracture model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinehart, Alex J.; Bishop, Joseph E.; Dewers, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    We examine the use of a linear softening cohesive fracture model (LCFM) to predict single-trace fracture growth in short-rod (SR) and notched 3-point-bend (N3PB) test configurations in Indiana Limestone. The broad goal of this work is to (a) understand the underlying assumptions of LCFM and (b) use experimental similarities and deviations from the LCFM to understand the role of loading paths of tensile fracture propagation. Cohesive fracture models are being applied in prediction of structural and subsurface fracture propagation in geomaterials. They lump the inelastic processes occurring during fracture propagation into a thin zone between elastic subdomains. LCFM assumes that the cohesive zone initially deforms elastically to a maximum tensile stress (σmax) and then softens linearly from the crack opening width at σmax to zero stress at a critical crack opening width w1. Using commercial finite element software, we developed LCFMs for the SR and N3PB configurations. After fixing σmax with results from cylinder splitting tests and finding an initial Young's modulus (E) with unconfined compressive strength tests, we manually calibrate E and w1 in the SR model against an envelope of experimental data. We apply the calibrated LCFM parameters in the N3PB geometry and compare the model against an envelope of N3PB experiments. For accurate simulation of fracture propagation, simulated off-crack stresses are high enough to require inclusion of damage. Different elastic moduli are needed in tension and compression. We hypothesize that the timing and location of shear versus extensional micromechanical failures control the qualitative macroscopic force-versus-displacement response in different tests. For accurate prediction, the LCFM requires a constant style of failure, which the SR configuration maintains until very late in deformation. The N3PB configuration does not maintain this constancy. To be broadly applicable between geometries and failure styles, the LCFM

  20. Three dimensional modeling of fractures in rock: From data to a regionalized parent-daughter model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hestir, K.; Chiles, J.P.; Long, J.; Billaux, D.

    1987-04-01

    We introduce a stochastic model for fracture systems called the parent-daughter model. The model uses circular discs to represent fractures. The discs are placed in three-dimensional space according to a random process called the parent-daughter point process. This process will give a clustering of fractures that cannot be produced with the usual Poisson process. We then outline a procedure for fitting the model to a particular data set.

  1. Design and modeling of small scale multiple fracturing experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuderman, J F

    1981-12-01

    Recent experiments at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) have demonstrated the existence of three distinct fracture regimes. Depending on the pressure rise time in a borehole, one can obtain hydraulic, multiple, or explosive fracturing behavior. The use of propellants rather than explosives in tamped boreholes permits tailoring of the pressure risetime over a wide range since propellants having a wide range of burn rates are available. This technique of using the combustion gases from a full bore propellant charge to produce controlled borehole pressurization is termed High Energy Gas Fracturing (HEGF). Several series of HEGF, in 0.15 m and 0.2 m diameter boreholes at 12 m depths, have been completed in a tunnel complex at NTS where mineback permitted direct observation of fracturing obtained. Because such large experiments are costly and time consuming, smaller scale experiments are desirable, provided results from small experiments can be used to predict fracture behavior in larger boreholes. In order to design small scale gas fracture experiments, the available data from previous HEGF experiments were carefully reviewed, analytical elastic wave modeling was initiated, and semi-empirical modeling was conducted which combined predictions for statically pressurized boreholes with experimental data. The results of these efforts include (1) the definition of what constitutes small scale experiments for emplacement in a tunnel complex at the Nevada Test Site, (2) prediction of average crack radius, in ash fall tuff, as a function of borehole size and energy input per unit length, (3) definition of multiple-hydraulic and multiple-explosive fracture boundaries as a function of boreholes size and surface wave velocity, (4) semi-empirical criteria for estimating stress and acceleration, and (5) a proposal that multiple fracture orientations may be governed by in situ stresses.

  2. Modeling the Fracture of Ice Sheets on Parallel Computers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waisman, Haim [Columbia University; Tuminaro, Ray [Sandia National Labs

    2013-10-10

    The objective of this project was to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. This objective was achieved by developing novel physics based models for ice, novel numerical tools to enable the modeling of the physics and by collaboration with the ice community experts. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. To this end, our research findings through this project offers significant advancement to the field and closes a large gap of knowledge in understanding and modeling the fracture of ice sheets in the polar regions. Thus, we believe that our objective has been achieved and our research accomplishments are significant. This is corroborated through a set of published papers, posters and presentations at technical conferences in the field. In particular significant progress has been made in the mechanics of ice, fracture of ice sheets and ice shelves in polar regions and sophisticated numerical methods that enable the solution of the physics in an efficient way.

  3. An Exactly Soluble Hierarchical Clustering Model Inverse Cascades, Self-Similarity, and Scaling

    CERN Document Server

    Gabrielov, A; Turcotte, D L

    1999-01-01

    We show how clustering as a general hierarchical dynamical process proceeds via a sequence of inverse cascades to produce self-similar scaling, as an intermediate asymptotic, which then truncates at the largest spatial scales. We show how this model can provide a general explanation for the behavior of several models that has been described as ``self-organized critical,'' including forest-fire, sandpile, and slider-block models.

  4. The Impact of Neighborhood Characteristics on Housing Prices-An Application of Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Lee Chun Chang; Hui-Yu Lin

    2012-01-01

    Housing data are of a nested nature as houses are nested in a village, a town, or a county. This study thus applies HLM (hierarchical linear modelling) in an empirical study by adding neighborhood characteristic variables into the model for consideration. Using the housing data of 31 neighborhoods in the Taipei area as analysis samples and three HLM sub-models, this study discusses the impact of neighborhood characteristics on house prices. The empirical results indicate that the impact of va...

  5. A first-order dynamical model of hierarchical triple stars and its application

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Xingbo; Fu, Yanning

    2015-01-01

    For most hierarchical triple stars, the classical double two-body model of zeroth-order cannot describe the motions of the components under the current observational accuracy. In this paper, Marchal's first-order analytical solution is implemented and a more efficient simplified version is applied to real triple stars. The results show that, for most triple stars, the proposed first-order model is preferable to the zeroth-order model either in fitting observational data or in predicting component positions.

  6. Hierarchical Web Page Classification Based on a Topic Model and Neighboring Pages Integration

    OpenAIRE

    Sriurai, Wongkot; Meesad, Phayung; Haruechaiyasak, Choochart

    2010-01-01

    Most Web page classification models typically apply the bag of words (BOW) model to represent the feature space. The original BOW representation, however, is unable to recognize semantic relationships between terms. One possible solution is to apply the topic model approach based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm to cluster the term features into a set of latent topics. Terms assigned into the same topic are semantically related. In this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical class...

  7. Hierarchical multi-scale modeling of texture induced plastic anisotropy in sheet forming

    OpenAIRE

    Gawad, J.; van Bael, Albert; Eyckens, P.; Samaey, G.; Van Houtte, P.; Roose, D.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a Hierarchical Multi-Scale (HMS) model of coupled evolutions of crystallographic texture and plastic anisotropy in plastic forming of polycrystalline metallic alloys. The model exploits the Finite Element formulation to describe the macroscopic deformation of the material. Anisotropy of the plastic properties is derived from a physics-based polycrystalline plasticity micro-scale model by means of virtual experiments. The homogenized micro-scale stress response given b...

  8. Transport modeling of sorbing tracers in artificial fractures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keum, Dong Kwon; Baik, Min Hoon; Park, Chung Kyun; Cho, Young Hwan; Hahn, Phil Soo

    1998-02-01

    This study was performed as part of a fifty-man year attachment program between AECL (Atomic Energy Canada Limited) and KAERI. Three kinds of computer code, HDD, POMKAP and VAMKAP, were developed to predict transport of contaminants in fractured rock. MDDM was to calculate the mass transport of contaminants in a single fracture using a simple hydrodynamic dispersion diffusion model. POMKAP was to predict the mass transport of contaminants by a two-dimensional variable aperture model. In parallel with modeling, the validation of models was also performed through the analysis of the migration experimental data obtained in acrylic plastic and granite artificial fracture system at the Whiteshell laboratories, AECL, Canada. (author). 34 refs., 11 tabs., 76 figs.

  9. Hydraulic Fracture Growth in a Layered Formation based on Fracturing Experiments and Discrete Element Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yushi, Zou; Xinfang, Ma; Tong, Zhou; Ning, Li; Ming, Chen; Sihai, Li; Yinuo, Zhang; Han, Li

    2017-09-01

    Hydraulic fracture (HF) height containment tends to occur in layered formations, and it significantly influences the entire HF geometry or the stimulated reservoir volume. This study aims to explore the influence of preexisting bedding planes (BPs) on the HF height growth in layered formations. Laboratory fracturing experiments were performed to confirm the occurrence of HF height containment in natural shale that contains multiple weak and high-permeability BPs under triaxial stresses. Numerical simulations were then conducted to further illustrate the manner in which vertical stress, BP permeability, BP density(or spacing), pump rate, and fluid viscosity control HF height growth using a 3D discrete element method-based fracturing model. In this model, the rock matrix was considered transversely isotropic and multiple BPs can be explicitly represented. Experimental and numerical results show that the vertically growing HF tends to be limited by multi-high-permeability BPs, even under higher vertical stress. When the vertically growing HF intersects with the multi-high-permeability BPs, the injection pressure will be sharply reduced. If a low pumping rate or a low-viscosity fluid is used, the excess fracturing fluid leak-off into the BPs obviously decreases the rate of pressure build up, which will then limit the growth of HF. Otherwise, a higher pumping rate and/or a higher viscosity will reduce the leak-off time and fluid volume, but increase the injection pressure to drive the HF to grow and to penetrate through the BPs.

  10. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Werner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  11. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Werner

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurement on tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances may be achievable if time uncertain proxies could be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches to accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time uncertain proxies. Critically, while a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age-model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the climate reconstruction, as compared with the current de-facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  12. A Hierarchical Latent Stochastic Differential Equation Model for Affective Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oravecz, Zita; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Vandekerckhove, Joachim

    2011-01-01

    In this article a continuous-time stochastic model (the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) is presented to model the perpetually altering states of the core affect, which is a 2-dimensional concept underlying all our affective experiences. The process model that we propose can account for the temporal changes in core affect on the latent level. The key…

  13. Modeling inter-subject variability in fMRI activation location: A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.; Nee, Derek E.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The aim of this work is to develop a spatial model for multi-subject fMRI data. There has been extensive work on univariate modeling of each voxel for single and multi-subject data, some work on spatial modeling of single-subject data, and some recent work on spatial modeling of multi-subject data. However, there has been no work on spatial models that explicitly account for inter-subject variability in activation locations. In this work, we use the idea of activation centers and model the inter-subject variability in activation locations directly. Our model is specified in a Bayesian hierarchical frame work which allows us to draw inferences at all levels: the population level, the individual level and the voxel level. We use Gaussian mixtures for the probability that an individual has a particular activation. This helps answer an important question which is not addressed by any of the previous methods: What proportion of subjects had a significant activity in a given region. Our approach incorporates the unknown number of mixture components into the model as a parameter whose posterior distribution is estimated by reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We demonstrate our method with a fMRI study of resolving proactive interference and show dramatically better precision of localization with our method relative to the standard mass-univariate method. Although we are motivated by fMRI data, this model could easily be modified to handle other types of imaging data. PMID:19210732

  14. Trans-dimensional matched-field geoacoustic inversion with hierarchical error models and interacting Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E

    2012-10-01

    This paper develops a trans-dimensional approach to matched-field geoacoustic inversion, including interacting Markov chains to improve efficiency and an autoregressive model to account for correlated errors. The trans-dimensional approach and hierarchical seabed model allows inversion without assuming any particular parametrization by relaxing model specification to a range of plausible seabed models (e.g., in this case, the number of sediment layers is an unknown parameter). Data errors are addressed by sampling statistical error-distribution parameters, including correlated errors (covariance), by applying a hierarchical autoregressive error model. The well-known difficulty of low acceptance rates for trans-dimensional jumps is addressed with interacting Markov chains, resulting in a substantial increase in efficiency. The trans-dimensional seabed model and the hierarchical error model relax the degree of prior assumptions required in the inversion, resulting in substantially improved (more realistic) uncertainty estimates and a more automated algorithm. In particular, the approach gives seabed parameter uncertainty estimates that account for uncertainty due to prior model choice (layering and data error statistics). The approach is applied to data measured on a vertical array in the Mediterranean Sea.

  15. Fractal modeling of natural fracture networks. Final report, June 1994--June 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferer, M.V.; Dean, B.H.; Mick, C.

    1996-04-01

    Recovery from naturally fractured, tight-gas reservoirs is controlled by the fracture network. Reliable characterization of the actual fracture network in the reservoir is severely limited. The location and orientation of fractures intersecting the borehole can be determined, but the length of these fractures cannot be unambiguously determined. Fracture networks can be determined for outcrops, but there is little reason to believe that the network in the reservoir should be identical because of the differences in stresses and history. Because of the lack of detailed information about the actual fracture network, modeling methods must represent the porosity and permeability associated with the fracture network, as accurately as possible with very little apriori information. Three rather different types of approaches have been used: (1) dual porosity simulations; (2) `stochastic` modeling of fracture networks, and (3) fractal modeling of fracture networks. Stochastic models which assume a variety of probability distributions of fracture characteristics have been used with some success in modeling fracture networks. The advantage of these stochastic models over the dual porosity simulations is that real fracture heterogeneities are included in the modeling process. In the sections provided in this paper the authors will present fractal analysis of the MWX site, using the box-counting procedure; (2) review evidence testing the fractal nature of fracture distributions and discuss the advantages of using their fractal analysis over a stochastic analysis; (3) present an efficient algorithm for producing a self-similar fracture networks which mimic the real MWX outcrop fracture network.

  16. Modelling karst aquifer evolution in fractured, porous rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Georg

    2016-12-01

    The removal of material in soluble rocks by physical and chemical dissolution is an important process enhancing the secondary porosity of soluble rocks. Depending on the history of the soluble rock, dissolution can occur either along fractures and bedding partings of the rock in the case of a telogenetic origin, or within the interconnected pore space in the case of eogenetic origin. In soluble rocks characterised by both fractures and pore space, dissolution in both flow compartments is possible. We investigate the dissolution of calcite both along fractures and within the pore space of a limestone rock by numerical modelling. The limestone rock is treated as fractured, porous aquifer, in which the hydraulic conductivity increases with time both for the fractures and the pore spaces. We show that enlargement of pore space by dissolution will accelerate the development of a classical fracture-dominated telogenetic karst aquifer, breakthrough occurs faster. In the case of a pore-controlled aquifer as in eogenetic rocks, enlargement of pores results in a front of enlarged pore spaces migrating into the karst aquifer, with more homogeneous enlargement around this dissolution front, and later breakthrough.

  17. Optimal fixation of oblique scaphoid fractures: a cadaver model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luria, Shai; Lenart, Lado; Lenart, Borut; Peleg, Eran; Kastelec, Matej

    2012-07-01

    Acute scaphoid fractures are commonly fixed with headless cannulated screws positioned in the center of the proximal fragment. Central placement of the screw may be difficult and may violate the scaphotrapezial joint. We hypothesize that placement of the screw through the scaphoid tuberosity will achieve perpendicular fixation of an oblique waist fracture and result in more stable fixation than a screw in the center of the proximal fragment. We designed oblique osteotomies for 8 matched pairs of cadaver scaphoids and fixed each specimen with a headless cannulated screw. In 1 specimen, we positioned the screw at the center of the proximal fragment; we placed its matched pair perpendicular to the fracture. The perpendicular screw was directed through the scaphoid tuberosity. We placed the specimen under the increasing load of a pneumatically driven plunger. We compared stiffness, load, distance at failure, and mechanism of failure between the central and perpendicular screw groups. We found no difference between groups. Stiffness was identical in both groups (131 N/mm) and load to failure was similar (central screw, 137 N vs perpendicular screw, 148 N). In this biomechanical model of an unstable scaphoid fracture, we found that similar stability of fixation had been achieved with a screw perpendicular to the fracture plane with entry through the tuberosity, compared with a screw in a central position in the proximal fragment. This study suggests that placing the screw through the tuberosity, perpendicular to a short oblique fracture, will not impair fixation stability. Percutaneous fixation of scaphoid fractures has become popular although it is technically challenging. An easier distal approach through the tuberosity, without violating the scaphotrapezial joint, may not impair the fixation stability of an oblique fracture. Copyright © 2012 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A hybrid deterministic-probabilistic approach to model the mechanical response of helically arranged hierarchical strands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraldi, M.; Perrella, G.; Ciervo, M.; Bosia, F.; Pugno, N. M.

    2017-09-01

    Very recently, a Weibull-based probabilistic strategy has been successfully applied to bundles of wires to determine their overall stress-strain behaviour, also capturing previously unpredicted nonlinear and post-elastic features of hierarchical strands. This approach is based on the so-called ;Equal Load Sharing (ELS); hypothesis by virtue of which, when a wire breaks, the load acting on the strand is homogeneously redistributed among the surviving wires. Despite the overall effectiveness of the method, some discrepancies between theoretical predictions and in silico Finite Element-based simulations or experimental findings might arise when more complex structures are analysed, e.g. helically arranged bundles. To overcome these limitations, an enhanced hybrid approach is proposed in which the probability of rupture is combined with a deterministic mechanical model of a strand constituted by helically-arranged and hierarchically-organized wires. The analytical model is validated comparing its predictions with both Finite Element simulations and experimental tests. The results show that generalized stress-strain responses - incorporating tension/torsion coupling - are naturally found and, once one or more elements break, the competition between geometry and mechanics of the strand microstructure, i.e. the different cross sections and helical angles of the wires in the different hierarchical levels of the strand, determines the no longer homogeneous stress redistribution among the surviving wires whose fate is hence governed by a ;Hierarchical Load Sharing; criterion.

  19. Numerical modelling of flow and transport in rough fractures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Scott Briggs; Bryan W. Karney; Brent E. Sleep

    2014-01-01

    Simulation of flow and transport through rough walled rock fractures is investigated using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and random walk (RW), respectively. The numerical implementation is developed and validated on general purpose graphic processing units (GPGPUs). Both the LBM and RW method are well suited to parallel implementation on GPGPUs because they require only next-neighbour communication and thus can reduce expenses. The LBM model is an order of magnitude faster on GPGPUs than published results for LBM simulations run on modern CPUs. The fluid model is verified for parallel plate flow, backward facing step and single fracture flow;and the RW model is verified for point-source diffusion, Taylor-Aris dispersion and breakthrough behaviour in a single fracture. Both algorithms place limitations on the discrete displacement of fluid or particle transport per time step to minimise the numerical error that must be considered during implementation.

  20. Multi-scale peridynamic modeling of dynamic fracture in concrete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammi, Christopher J.; Zhou, Min

    2017-01-01

    Peridynamics simulations of the dynamic deformation and failure of high-performance concrete are performed at the meso-scale. A pressure-dependent, peridynamic plasticity model and failure criteria are used to capture pressure-sensitive granular flow and fracture. The meso-scale framework explicitly resolves reinforcing phases, pores, and intrinsic flaws. A novel scaling approach is formulated to inform the engineering-scale plasticity model parameters with meso-scale simulation results. The effects of composition, porosity, and fracture energy at the meso-scale on the engineering-scale impact resistance are assessed. The fracture process zone at the meso-scale is found to propagate along adjacent pores and reinforcing phases under tensile and shear loading conditions. The simulations show that tensile strength decreases and dissipation increases as the porosity in the concrete increases. The framework and modeling approach allow the delineation of trends that can be used to design more impact-resistant materials.

  1. The Evolution of Galaxy Clustering in Hierarchical Models

    OpenAIRE

    1999-01-01

    The main ingredients of recent semi-analytic models of galaxy formation are summarised. We present predictions for the galaxy clustering properties of a well specified LCDM model whose parameters are constrained by observed local galaxy properties. We present preliminary predictions for evolution of clustering that can be probed with deep pencil beam surveys.

  2. A Hierarchical Multiobjective Routing Model for MPLS Networks with Two Service Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craveirinha, José; Girão-Silva, Rita; Clímaco, João; Martins, Lúcia

    This work presents a model for multiobjective routing in MPLS networks formulated within a hierarchical network-wide optimization framework, with two classes of services, namely QoS and Best Effort (BE) services. The routing model uses alternative routing and hierarchical optimization with two optimization levels, including fairness objectives. Another feature of the model is the use of an approximate stochastic representation of the traffic flows in the network, based on the concept of effective bandwidth. The theoretical foundations of a heuristic strategy for finding “good” compromise solutions to the very complex bi-level routing optimization problem, based on a conjecture concerning the definition of marginal implied costs for QoS flows and BE flows, will be described. The main features of a first version of this heuristic based on a bi-objective shortest path model and some preliminary results for a benchmark network will also be revealed.

  3. Hospital- and patient-related characteristics determining maternity length of stay: a hierarchical linear model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, K M; Elashoff, R M; Rees, K S; Hasan, M M; Legorreta, A P

    1998-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify factors related to pregnancy and childbirth that might be predictive of a patient's length of stay after delivery and to model variations in length of stay. California hospital discharge data on maternity patients (n = 499,912) were analyzed. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to adjust for patient case mix and hospital characteristics and to account for the dependence of outcome variables within hospitals. Substantial variation in length of stay among patients was observed. The variation was mainly attributed to delivery type (vaginal or cesarean section), the patient's clinical risk factors, and severity of complications (if any). Furthermore, hospitals differed significantly in maternity lengths of stay even after adjustment for patient case mix. Developing risk-adjusted models for length of stay is a complex process but is essential for understanding variation. The hierarchical linear model approach described here represents a more efficient and appropriate way of studying interhospital variations than the traditional regression approach.

  4. Resource discovery algorithm based on hierarchical model and Conscious search in Grid computing system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasim Nickbakhsh

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The distributed system of Grid subscribes the non-homogenous sources at a vast level in a dynamic manner. The resource discovery manner is very influential on the efficiency and of quality the system functionality. The “Bitmap” model is based on the hierarchical and conscious search model that allows for less traffic and low number of messages in relation to other methods in this respect. This proposed method is based on the hierarchical and conscious search model that enhances the Bitmap method with the objective to reduce traffic, reduce the load of resource management processing, reduce the number of emerged messages due to resource discovery and increase the resource according speed. The proposed method and the Bitmap method are simulated through Arena tool. This proposed model is abbreviated as RNTL.

  5. Hierarchical Network Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomadsen, Tommy

    2005-01-01

    of different types of hierarchical networks. This is supplemented by a review of ring network design problems and a presentation of a model allowing for modeling most hierarchical networks. We use methods based on linear programming to design the hierarchical networks. Thus, a brief introduction to the various....... The thesis investigates models for hierarchical network design and methods used to design such networks. In addition, ring network design is considered, since ring networks commonly appear in the design of hierarchical networks. The thesis introduces hierarchical networks, including a classification scheme...... linear programming based methods is included. The thesis is thus suitable as a foundation for study of design of hierarchical networks. The major contribution of the thesis consists of seven papers which are included in the appendix. The papers address hierarchical network design and/or ring network...

  6. Multiscale model reduction for shale gas transport in fractured media

    KAUST Repository

    Akkutlu, I. Y.

    2016-05-18

    In this paper, we develop a multiscale model reduction technique that describes shale gas transport in fractured media. Due to the pore-scale heterogeneities and processes, we use upscaled models to describe the matrix. We follow our previous work (Akkutlu et al. Transp. Porous Media 107(1), 235–260, 2015), where we derived an upscaled model in the form of generalized nonlinear diffusion model to describe the effects of kerogen. To model the interaction between the matrix and the fractures, we use Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (Efendiev et al. J. Comput. Phys. 251, 116–135, 2013, 2015). In this approach, the matrix and the fracture interaction is modeled via local multiscale basis functions. In Efendiev et al. (2015), we developed the GMsFEM and applied for linear flows with horizontal or vertical fracture orientations aligned with a Cartesian fine grid. The approach in Efendiev et al. (2015) does not allow handling arbitrary fracture distributions. In this paper, we (1) consider arbitrary fracture distributions on an unstructured grid; (2) develop GMsFEM for nonlinear flows; and (3) develop online basis function strategies to adaptively improve the convergence. The number of multiscale basis functions in each coarse region represents the degrees of freedom needed to achieve a certain error threshold. Our approach is adaptive in a sense that the multiscale basis functions can be added in the regions of interest. Numerical results for two-dimensional problem are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of proposed approach. © 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

  7. Bayesian Hierarchical Random Intercept Model Based on Three Parameter Gamma Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirawati, Ika; Iriawan, Nur; Irhamah

    2017-06-01

    Hierarchical data structures are common throughout many areas of research. Beforehand, the existence of this type of data was less noticed in the analysis. The appropriate statistical analysis to handle this type of data is the hierarchical linear model (HLM). This article will focus only on random intercept model (RIM), as a subclass of HLM. This model assumes that the intercept of models in the lowest level are varied among those models, and their slopes are fixed. The differences of intercepts were suspected affected by some variables in the upper level. These intercepts, therefore, are regressed against those upper level variables as predictors. The purpose of this paper would demonstrate a proven work of the proposed two level RIM of the modeling on per capita household expenditure in Maluku Utara, which has five characteristics in the first level and three characteristics of districts/cities in the second level. The per capita household expenditure data in the first level were captured by the three parameters Gamma distribution. The model, therefore, would be more complex due to interaction of many parameters for representing the hierarchical structure and distribution pattern of the data. To simplify the estimation processes of parameters, the computational Bayesian method couple with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and its Gibbs Sampling are employed.

  8. Numerical Simulation of Fluid-Solid Coupling in Fractured Porous Media with Discrete Fracture Model and Extended Finite Element Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingdong Zeng

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Fluid-solid coupling is ubiquitous in the process of fluid flow underground and has a significant influence on the development of oil and gas reservoirs. To investigate these phenomena, the coupled mathematical model of solid deformation and fluid flow in fractured porous media is established. In this study, the discrete fracture model (DFM is applied to capture fluid flow in the fractured porous media, which represents fractures explicitly and avoids calculating shape factor for cross flow. In addition, the extended finite element method (XFEM is applied to capture solid deformation due to the discontinuity caused by fractures. More importantly, this model captures the change of fractures aperture during the simulation, and then adjusts fluid flow in the fractures. The final linear equation set is derived and solved for a 2D plane strain problem. Results show that the combination of discrete fracture model and extended finite element method is suited for simulating coupled deformation and fluid flow in fractured porous media.

  9. Risk Assessment in Fractured Clayey Tills - Which Modeling Tools?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup; Binning, Philip John

    2012-01-01

    assessment is challenging and the inclusion of the relevant processes is difficult. Furthermore the lack of long-term monitoring data prevents from verifying the accuracy of the different conceptual models. Further investigations based on long-term data and numerical modeling are needed to accurately......The article presents different tools available for risk assessment in fractured clayey tills and their advantages and limitations are discussed. Because of the complex processes occurring during contaminant transport through fractured media, the development of simple practical tools for risk...

  10. The high redshift galaxy population in hierarchical galaxy formation models

    CERN Document Server

    Kitzbichler, M G; Kitzbichler, Manfred G.; White, Simon D. M.

    2006-01-01

    We compare observations of the high redshift galaxy population to the predictions of the galaxy formation model of Croton et al. (2006). This model, implemented on the Millennium Simulation of the concordance LCDM cosmogony, introduces "radio mode" feedback from the central galaxies of groups and clusters in order to obtain quantitative agreement with the luminosity, colour, morphology and clustering properties of the low redshift galaxy population. Here we compare the predictions of this same model to the observed counts and redshift distributions of faint galaxies, as well as to their inferred luminosity and mass functions out to redshift 5. With the exception of the mass functions, all these properties are sensitive to modelling of dust obscuration. A simple but plausible treatment gives moderately good agreement with most of the data, although the predicted abundance of relatively massive (~M*) galaxies appears systematically high at high redshift, suggesting that such galaxies assemble earlier in this mo...

  11. Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-05

    the kernel function which depends on the application and the model user. This research uses the most popular kernel function, the radial basis...an important role in the nation’s economy. Unfortunately, the system’s reliability is declining due to the aging components of the network [Grier...kernel function. Gaussian Bayesian kernel models became very popular recently and were extended and applied to a number of classification problems. An

  12. Building hierarchical models of avian distributions for the State of Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, J.E.; Peterson, J.T.; Conroy, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    To predict the distributions of breeding birds in the state of Georgia, USA, we built hierarchical models consisting of 4 levels of nested mapping units of decreasing area: 90,000 ha, 3,600 ha, 144 ha, and 5.76 ha. We used the Partners in Flight database of point counts to generate presence and absence data at locations across the state of Georgia for 9 avian species: Acadian flycatcher (Empidonax virescens), brownheaded nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), prairie warbler (Dendroica discolor), yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyxus americanus), white-eyed vireo (Vireo griseus), and wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). At each location, we estimated hierarchical-level-specific habitat measurements using the Georgia GAP Analysis18 class land cover and other Geographic Information System sources. We created candidate, species-specific occupancy models based on previously reported relationships, and fit these using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures implemented in OpenBugs. We then created a confidence model set for each species based on Akaike's Information Criterion. We found hierarchical habitat relationships for all species. Three-fold cross-validation estimates of model accuracy indicated an average overall correct classification rate of 60.5%. Comparisons with existing Georgia GAP Analysis models indicated that our models were more accurate overall. Our results provide guidance to wildlife scientists and managers seeking predict avian occurrence as a function of local and landscape-level habitat attributes.

  13. Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cressie, Noel; Calder, Catherine A; Clark, James S; Ver Hoef, Jay M; Wikle, Christopher K

    2009-04-01

    Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

  14. Methodology to develop crash modification functions for road safety treatments with fully specified and hierarchical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongsheng; Persaud, Bhagwant

    2014-09-01

    Crash modification factors (CMFs) for road safety treatments are developed as multiplicative factors that are used to reflect the expected changes in safety performance associated with changes in highway design and/or the traffic control features. However, current CMFs have methodological drawbacks. For example, variability with application circumstance is not well understood, and, as important, correlation is not addressed when several CMFs are applied multiplicatively. These issues can be addressed by developing safety performance functions (SPFs) with components of crash modification functions (CM-Functions), an approach that includes all CMF related variables, along with others, while capturing quantitative and other effects of factors and accounting for cross-factor correlations. CM-Functions can capture the safety impact of factors through a continuous and quantitative approach, avoiding the problematic categorical analysis that is often used to capture CMF variability. There are two formulations to develop such SPFs with CM-Function components - fully specified models and hierarchical models. Based on sample datasets from two Canadian cities, both approaches are investigated in this paper. While both model formulations yielded promising results and reasonable CM-Functions, the hierarchical model was found to be more suitable in retaining homogeneity of first-level SPFs, while addressing CM-Functions in sub-level modeling. In addition, hierarchical models better capture the correlations between different impact factors.

  15. Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

  16. Use of a Bayesian hierarchical model to study the allometric scaling of the fetoplacental weight ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives: to propose the use of a Bayesian hierarchical model to study the allometric scaling of the fetoplacental weight ratio, including possible confounders. Methods: data from 26 singleton pregnancies with gestational age at birth between 37 and 42 weeks were analyzed. The placentas were collected immediately after delivery and stored under refrigeration until the time of analysis, which occurred within up to 12 hours. Maternal data were collected from medical records. A Bayesian hierarchical model was proposed and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to obtain samples from distribution a posteriori. Results: the model developed showed a reasonable fit, even allowing for the incorporation of variables and a priori information on the parameters used. Conclusions: new variables can be added to the modelfrom the available code, allowing many possibilities for data analysis and indicating the potential for use in research on the subject.

  17. Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan WU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.

  18. Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dan WU; Feng-ping WU; Yan-ping CHEN

    2009-01-01

    The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.

  19. Adaptive object recognition model using incremental feature representation and hierarchical classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Sungmoon; Lee, Minho

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an adaptive object recognition model based on incremental feature representation and a hierarchical feature classifier that offers plasticity to accommodate additional input data and reduces the problem of forgetting previously learned information. The incremental feature representation method applies adaptive prototype generation with a cortex-like mechanism to conventional feature representation to enable an incremental reflection of various object characteristics, such as feature dimensions in the learning process. A feature classifier based on using a hierarchical generative model recognizes various objects with variant feature dimensions during the learning process. Experimental results show that the adaptive object recognition model successfully recognizes single and multiple-object classes with enhanced stability and flexibility.

  20. Design of Experiments for Factor Hierarchization in Complex Structure Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kasmi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Modelling the power-grid network is of fundamental interest to analyse the conducted propagation of unintentional and intentional electromagnetic interferences. The propagation is indeed highly influenced by the channel behaviour. In this paper, we investigate the effects of appliances and the position of cables in a low voltage network. First, the power-grid architecture is described. Then, the principle of Experimental Design is recalled. Next, the methodology is applied to power-grid modelling. Finally, we propose an analysis of the statistical moments of the experimental design results. Several outcomes are provided to describe the effects induced by parameter variability on the conducted propagation of spurious compromising emanations.

  1. A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); C. Horváth (Csilla); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractFor promotional planning and market segmentation it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on category and brand sales. In this paper we put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in short-run and long-run effects of promotio

  2. Models to relate species to environment: a hierarchical statistical approac

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamil, T.

    2012-01-01

    In the last two decades, the interest of community ecologists in trait-based approaches has grown dramatically and these approaches have been increasingly applied to explain and predict response of species to environmental conditions. A variety of modelling techniques are available. The dominant

  3. Models to relate species to environment: a hierarchical statistical approac

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamil, T.

    2012-01-01

    In the last two decades, the interest of community ecologists in trait-based approaches has grown dramatically and these approaches have been increasingly applied to explain and predict response of species to environmental conditions. A variety of modelling techniques are available. The dominant tec

  4. Probabilistic inference: Task dependency and individual differences of probability weighting revealed by hierarchical Bayesian modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz eBoos

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities by two (likelihoods design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behaviour. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model’s success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modelling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

  5. Hierarchical algorithms of functional modelling for solution of optimal operation problems in electrical power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makeechev, V.A. [Industrial Power Company, Krasnopresnenskaya Naberejnaya 12, 123610 Moscow (Russian Federation); Soukhanov, O.A. [Energy Systems Institute, 1 st Yamskogo Polya Street 15, 125040 Moscow (Russian Federation); Sharov, Y.V. [Moscow Power Engineering Institute, Krasnokazarmennaya Street 14, 111250 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2008-07-15

    This paper presents foundations of the optimization method intended for solution of power systems operation problems and based on the principles of functional modeling (FM). This paper also presents several types of hierarchical FM algorithms for economic dispatch in these systems derived from this method. According to the FM method a power system is represented by hierarchical model consisting of systems of equations of lower (subsystem) levels and higher level system of connection equations (SCE), in which only boundary variables of subsystems are present. Solution of optimization problem in accordance with the FM method consists of the following operations: (1) solution of optimization problem for each subsystem (values of boundary variables for subsystems should be determined on the higher level of model); (2) calculation of functional characteristic (FC) of each subsystem, pertaining to state of subsystem on current iteration (these two steps are carried out on the lower level of the model); (3) formation and solution of the higher level system of equations (SCE), which gives values of boundary and supplementary boundary variables on current iteration. The key elements in the general structure of the FM method are FCs of subsystems, which represent them on the higher level of the model as ''black boxes''. Important advantage of hierarchical FM algorithms is that results obtained with them on each iteration are identical to those of corresponding basic one level algorithms. (author)

  6. Comparing discrete fracture and continuum models to predict contaminant transport in fractured porous media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blessent, Daniela; Jørgensen, Peter R; Therrien, René

    2014-01-01

    We used the FRAC3Dvs numerical model (Therrien and Sudicky 1996) to compare the dual-porosity (DP), equivalent porous medium (EPM), and discrete fracture matrix diffusion (DFMD) conceptual models to predict field-scale contaminant transport in a fractured clayey till aquitard. The simulations show that the DP, EPM, and DFMD models could be equally well calibrated to reproduce contaminant breakthrough in the till aquitard for a base case. In contrast, when groundwater velocity and degradation rates are modified with respect to the base case, the DP method simulated contaminant concentrations up to three orders of magnitude different from those calculated by the DFMD model. In previous simulations of well-characterized column experiments, the DFMD method reproduced observed changes in solute transport for a range of flow and transport conditions comparable to those of the field-scale simulations, while the DP and EPM models required extensive recalibration to avoid high magnitude errors in predicted mass transport. The lack of robustness with respect to variable flow and transport conditions suggests that DP models and effective porosity EPM models have limitations for predicting cause-effect relationships in environmental planning. The study underlines the importance of obtaining well-characterized experimental data for further studies and evaluation of model key process descriptions and model suitability. © 2013, National Groundwater Association.

  7. Experiments in Error Propagation within Hierarchal Combat Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    and variances of Blue MTTK, Red MTTK, and P[Blue Wins] by Experimental Design are statistically different (Wackerly, Mendenhall III and Schaeffer...2008). Although the data is not normally distributed, the t-test is robust to non-normality (Wackerly, Mendenhall III and Schaeffer 2008). There is...this is handled by transforming the predicted values with a natural logarithm (Wackerly, Mendenhall III and Schaeffer 2008). The model considers

  8. Hierarchical Models for Batteries: Overview with Some Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pannala, Sreekanth [ORNL; Mukherjee, Partha P [ORNL; Allu, Srikanth [ORNL; Nanda, Jagjit [ORNL; Martha, Surendra K [ORNL; Dudney, Nancy J [ORNL; Turner, John A [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Batteries are complex multiscale systems and a hierarchy of models has been employed to study different aspects of batteries at different resolutions. For the electrochemistry and charge transport, the models span from electric circuits, single-particle, pseudo 2D, detailed 3D, and microstructure resolved at the continuum scales and various techniques such as molecular dynamics and density functional theory to resolve the atomistic structure. Similar analogies exist for the thermal, mechanical, and electrical aspects of the batteries. We have been recently working on the development of a unified formulation for the continuum scales across the electrode-electrolyte-electrode system - using a rigorous volume averaging approach typical of multiphase formulation. This formulation accounts for any spatio-temporal variation of the different properties such as electrode/void volume fractions and anisotropic conductivities. In this talk the following will be presented: The background and the hierarchy of models that need to be integrated into a battery modeling framework to carry out predictive simulations, Our recent work on the unified 3D formulation addressing the missing links in the multiscale description of the batteries, Our work on microstructure resolved simulations for diffusion processes, Upscaling of quantities of interest to construct closures for the 3D continuum description, Sample results for a standard Carbon/Spinel cell will be presented and compared to experimental data, Finally, the infrastructure we are building to bring together components with different physics operating at different resolution will be presented. The presentation will also include details about how this generalized approach can be applied to other electrochemical storage systems such as supercapacitors, Li-Air batteries, and Lithium batteries with 3D architectures.

  9. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of random and residual variance-covariance matrices in bivariate mixed effects models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bello, Nora M; Steibel, Juan P; Tempelman, Robert J

    2010-06-01

    Bivariate mixed effects models are often used to jointly infer upon covariance matrices for both random effects (u) and residuals (e) between two different phenotypes in order to investigate the architecture of their relationship. However, these (co)variances themselves may additionally depend upon covariates as well as additional sets of exchangeable random effects that facilitate borrowing of strength across a large number of clusters. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian extension of the classical bivariate mixed effects model by embedding additional levels of mixed effects modeling of reparameterizations of u-level and e-level (co)variances between two traits. These parameters are based upon a recently popularized square-root-free Cholesky decomposition and are readily interpretable, each conveniently facilitating a generalized linear model characterization. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, we validate our model based on a simulation study and apply it to a joint analysis of milk yield and calving interval phenotypes in Michigan dairy cows. This analysis indicates that the e-level relationship between the two traits is highly heterogeneous across herds and depends upon systematic herd management factors.

  10. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Sustainable Building Automation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Mayer

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A hierarchicalmodel predictive controller (HMPC is proposed for flexible and sustainable building automation. The implications of a building automation system for sustainability are defined, and model predictive control is introduced as an ideal tool to cover all requirements. The HMPC is presented as a development suitable for the optimization of modern buildings, as well as retrofitting. The performance and flexibility of the HMPC is demonstrated by simulation studies of a modern office building, and the perfect interaction with future smart grids is shown.

  11. Emotional intelligence is a second-stratum factor of intelligence: evidence from hierarchical and bifactor models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacCann, Carolyn; Joseph, Dana L; Newman, Daniel A; Roberts, Richard D

    2014-04-01

    This article examines the status of emotional intelligence (EI) within the structure of human cognitive abilities. To evaluate whether EI is a 2nd-stratum factor of intelligence, data were fit to a series of structural models involving 3 indicators each for fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, quantitative reasoning, visual processing, and broad retrieval ability, as well as 2 indicators each for emotion perception, emotion understanding, and emotion management. Unidimensional, multidimensional, hierarchical, and bifactor solutions were estimated in a sample of 688 college and community college students. Results suggest adequate fit for 2 models: (a) an oblique 8-factor model (with 5 traditional cognitive ability factors and 3 EI factors) and (b) a hierarchical solution (with cognitive g at the highest level and EI representing a 2nd-stratum factor that loads onto g at λ = .80). The acceptable relative fit of the hierarchical model confirms the notion that EI is a group factor of cognitive ability, marking the expression of intelligence in the emotion domain. The discussion proposes a possible expansion of Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory to include EI as a 2nd-stratum factor of similar standing to factors such as fluid intelligence and visual processing.

  12. Aging through hierarchical coalescence in the East model

    CERN Document Server

    Faggionato, A; Roberto, C; Toninelli, C

    2010-01-01

    We rigorously analyze the low temperature non-equilibrium dynamics of the East model, a special example of a one dimensional oriented kinetically constrained particle model, when the initial distribution is different from the reversible one and for times much smaller than the global relaxation time. This setting has been intensively studied in the physics literature to analyze the slow dynamics which follows a sudden quench from the liquid to the glass phase. In the limit of zero temperature (i.e. a vanishing density of vacancies) and for initial distributions such that the vacancies form a renewal process we prove that the density of vacancies, the persistence function and the two-time autocorrelation function behave as staircase functions with several plateaux. Furthermore the two-time autocorrelation function displays an aging behavior. We also provide a sharp description of the statistics of the domain length as a function of time, a domain being the interval between two consecutive vacancies. When the in...

  13. Hierarchic stochastic modelling applied to intracellular Ca(2+ signals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Moenke

    Full Text Available Important biological processes like cell signalling and gene expression have noisy components and are very complex at the same time. Mathematical analysis of such systems has often been limited to the study of isolated subsystems, or approximations are used that are difficult to justify. Here we extend a recently published method (Thurley and Falcke, PNAS 2011 which is formulated in observable system configurations instead of molecular transitions. This reduces the number of system states by several orders of magnitude and avoids fitting of kinetic parameters. The method is applied to Ca(2+ signalling. Ca(2+ is a ubiquitous second messenger transmitting information by stochastic sequences of concentration spikes, which arise by coupling of subcellular Ca(2+ release events (puffs. We derive analytical expressions for a mechanistic Ca(2+ model, based on recent data from live cell imaging, and calculate Ca(2+ spike statistics in dependence on cellular parameters like stimulus strength or number of Ca(2+ channels. The new approach substantiates a generic Ca(2+ model, which is a very convenient way to simulate Ca(2+ spike sequences with correct spiking statistics.

  14. [Determinants of malnutrition in a low-income population: hierarchical analytical model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olinto, M T; Victora, C G; Barros, F C; Tomasi, E

    1993-01-01

    To investigate the determinants of malnutrition among low-income children, the effects of socioeconomic, environmental, reproductive, morbidity, child care, birthweight and breastfeeding variables on stunting and wasting were studied. All 354 children below two years of age living in two urban slum areas of Pelotas, southern Brazil, were included. The multivariate analyses took into account the hierarchical structure of the risk factors for each type of deficit. Variables selected as significant on a given level of the model were considered as risk factors, even if their statistical significance was subsequently lost when hierarchically inferior variables were included. The final model for stunting included the variables education and presence of the father, maternal education and employment, birthweight and age. For wasting, the variables selected were the number of household appliances, birth interval, housing conditions, borough, birthweight, age, gender and previous hospitalizations.

  15. Fusing heterogeneous data for the calibration of molecular dynamics force fields using hierarchical Bayesian models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen; Angelikopoulos, Panagiotis; Tauriello, Gerardo; Papadimitriou, Costas; Koumoutsakos, Petros

    2016-12-28

    We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework to systematically integrate heterogeneous data for the calibration of force fields in Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. Our approach enables the fusion of diverse experimental data sets of the physico-chemical properties of a system at different thermodynamic conditions. We demonstrate the value of this framework for the robust calibration of MD force-fields for water using experimental data of its diffusivity, radial distribution function, and density. In order to address the high computational cost associated with the hierarchical Bayesian models, we develop a novel surrogate model based on the empirical interpolation method. Further computational savings are achieved by implementing a highly parallel transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The present method bypasses possible subjective weightings of the experimental data in identifying MD force-field parameters.

  16. Hierarchical statistical shape models of multiobject anatomical structures: application to brain MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrolaza, Juan J; Villanueva, Arantxa; Cabeza, Rafael

    2012-03-01

    The accurate segmentation of subcortical brain structures in magnetic resonance (MR) images is of crucial importance in the interdisciplinary field of medical imaging. Although statistical approaches such as active shape models (ASMs) have proven to be particularly useful in the modeling of multiobject shapes, they are inefficient when facing challenging problems. Based on the wavelet transform, the fully generic multiresolution framework presented in this paper allows us to decompose the interobject relationships into different levels of detail. The aim of this hierarchical decomposition is twofold: to efficiently characterize the relationships between objects and their particular localities. Experiments performed on an eight-object structure defined in axial cross sectional MR brain images show that the new hierarchical segmentation significantly improves the accuracy of the segmentation, and while it exhibits a remarkable robustness with respect to the size of the training set.

  17. Empirical Bayes ranking and selection methods via semiparametric hierarchical mixture models in microarray studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noma, Hisashi; Matsui, Shigeyuki

    2013-05-20

    The main purpose of microarray studies is screening of differentially expressed genes as candidates for further investigation. Because of limited resources in this stage, prioritizing genes are relevant statistical tasks in microarray studies. For effective gene selections, parametric empirical Bayes methods for ranking and selection of genes with largest effect sizes have been proposed (Noma et al., 2010; Biostatistics 11: 281-289). The hierarchical mixture model incorporates the differential and non-differential components and allows information borrowing across differential genes with separation from nuisance, non-differential genes. In this article, we develop empirical Bayes ranking methods via a semiparametric hierarchical mixture model. A nonparametric prior distribution, rather than parametric prior distributions, for effect sizes is specified and estimated using the "smoothing by roughening" approach of Laird and Louis (1991; Computational statistics and data analysis 12: 27-37). We present applications to childhood and infant leukemia clinical studies with microarrays for exploring genes related to prognosis or disease progression.

  18. On hierarchical models for visual recognition and learning of objects, scenes, and activities

    CERN Document Server

    Spehr, Jens

    2015-01-01

    In many computer vision applications, objects have to be learned and recognized in images or image sequences. This book presents new probabilistic hierarchical models that allow an efficient representation of multiple objects of different categories, scales, rotations, and views. The idea is to exploit similarities between objects and object parts in order to share calculations and avoid redundant information. Furthermore inference approaches for fast and robust detection are presented. These new approaches combine the idea of compositional and similarity hierarchies and overcome limitations of previous methods. Besides classical object recognition the book shows the use for detection of human poses in a project for gait analysis. The use of activity detection is presented for the design of environments for ageing, to identify activities and behavior patterns in smart homes. In a presented project for parking spot detection using an intelligent vehicle, the proposed approaches are used to hierarchically model...

  19. Heuristics for Hierarchical Partitioning with Application to Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Michael Oliver; Alur, Rajeev

    2001-01-01

    for a temporal scaling technique, called “Next” heuristic [2]. The latter is applicable in reachability analysis and is included in a recent version of the Mocha model checking tool. We demonstrate performance and benefits of our method and use an asynchronous parity computer and an opinion poll protocol as case...... that captures the quality of a structure relative to the connections and favors shallow structures with a low degree of branching. Finding a structure with minimal cost is NP-complete. We present a greedy polynomial-time algorithm that approximates good solutions incrementally by local evaluation of a heuristic...... function. We argue for a heuristic function based on four criteria: the number of enclosed connections, the number of components, the number of touched connections and the depth of the structure. We report on an application in the context of formal verification, where our algorithm serves as a preprocessor...

  20. Modeling of 1D Anomalous Diffusion in Fractured Nanoporous Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albinali Ali

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fractured nanoporous reservoirs include multi-scale and discontinuous fractures coupled with a complex nanoporous matrix. Such systems cannot be described by the conventional dual-porosity (or multi-porosity idealizations due to the presence of different flow mechanisms at multiple scales. More detailed modeling approaches, such as Discrete Fracture Network (DFN models, similarly suffer from the extensive data requirements dictated by the intricacy of the flow scales, which eventually deter the utility of these models. This paper discusses the utility and construction of 1D analytical and numerical anomalous diffusion models for heterogeneous, nanoporous media, which is commonly encountered in oil and gas production from tight, unconventional reservoirs with fractured horizontal wells. A fractional form of Darcy’s law, which incorporates the non-local and hereditary nature of flow, is coupled with the classical mass conservation equation to derive a fractional diffusion equation in space and time. Results show excellent agreement with established solutions under asymptotic conditions and are consistent with the physical intuitions.

  1. Modeling 3D Fracture Network in Carbonate NFR: Contribution from an Analogue Dataset, the Cante Perdrix Quarry, Calvisson, SE France

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gauthier, B.D.M.; Bisdom, K.; Bertotti, G.

    2012-01-01

    The full 3D characterization of fracture networks is a key issue in naturally fractured reservoir modeling. Fracture geometry (e.g., orientation, size, spacing), fracture scale (e.g., bed-confined fractures, fracture corridors), lateral and vertical variations, need to be defined from limited, gener

  2. Model of Fracture, Friction, and Wear Phenomena of Porous Iron

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Shatsov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical and tribotechnical features of powdered materials are strongly influenced by pore volume, fracture character, impurities, alloying, concentration inhomogeneity, friction conditions, and other factors. Pores also have influence on acceleration of diffusion processes and reduce undercooled austenite resistance. Annealed in hydrogen, ultra pure iron powder was used to study porous iron features. Toughness fracture and tribotechnical features had nonmonotonic dependence from porosity different from all known dependences got from technical iron powders. Researches brought out the fact that in process of porosity reduction by pressing and annealing cycles, the average dimension of porous is changed. According to the analysis of porous structure were created models of friction, wear, and fracture of pure porous iron.

  3. Joint hierarchical models for sparsely sampled high-dimensional LiDAR and forest variables

    OpenAIRE

    Finley, Andrew O.; Banerjee, Sudipto; Zhou, Yuzhen; Cook, Bruce D; Babcock, Chad

    2016-01-01

    Recent advancements in remote sensing technology, specifically Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors, provide the data needed to quantify forest characteristics at a fine spatial resolution over large geographic domains. From an inferential standpoint, there is interest in prediction and interpolation of the often sparsely sampled and spatially misaligned LiDAR signals and forest variables. We propose a fully process-based Bayesian hierarchical model for above ground biomass (AGB) and L...

  4. A Hierarchical Slicing Tool Model%一个分层切片工具模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭毅; 朱平; 李必信; 郑国梁

    2001-01-01

    Most of the traditional methods of slicing are based on dependence graph. But constructing dependence graph for object oriented programs directly is very complicated. The design and implementation of a hierarchical slicing tool model are described. By constructing the package level dependence graph, class level dependence graph, method level dependence graph and statement level dependence graph, package level slice, class level slice, method level slice and program slice are obtained step by step.

  5. Thirteen years after. Using hierarchical linear modeling to investigate long-term assessment center validity

    OpenAIRE

    Jansen, P.G.W.

    2003-01-01

    Using hierarchical linear modeling the author investigated temporal trends in the predictive validity of an assessment center for career advancement (measured as salary growth) over a 13-year period, for a sample of 456 academic graduates. Using year of entry and tenure as controls, linear and quadratic properties of individual salary curves could be predicted by the assessment center dimensions. The validity of the (clinical) overall assessment rating for persons with tenure of at least 12 y...

  6. Julia sets and complex singularities in diamond-like hierarchical Potts models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAO; Jianyong

    2005-01-01

    We study the phase transition of the Potts model on diamond-like hierarchical lattices. It is shown that the set of the complex singularities is the Julia set of a rational mapping. An interesting problem is how are these singularities continued to the complex plane. In this paper, by the method of complex dynamics, we give a complete description about the connectivity of the set of the complex singularities.

  7. Hierarchical Linear Modeling to Explore the Influence of Satisfaction with Public Facilities on Housing Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Chung-Chang Lee

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to explore the influence of satisfaction with public facilities on both individual residential and overall (or regional) levels on housing prices. The empirical results indicate that the average housing prices between local cities and counties exhibit significant variance. At the macro level, the explanatory power of the variable ¡§convenience of life¡¨ on the average housing prices of all counties and cities reaches the 5% significance level...

  8. Constructing low-dimensional stochastic wind models through hierarchical spatial temporal decomposition

    OpenAIRE

    Guo,Qiang; Rajewski, Daniel; Takle, Eugene; Ganapathysubramanian, Baskar

    2016-01-01

    Current wind turbine simulations successfully use turbulence generating tools for modeling behavior. However, they lack the ability to reproduce variabilities in wind dynamics and inherent stochastic structures (like temporal and spatial coherences, sporadic bursts, high shear regions). This necessitates a more realistic parameterization of the wind that encodes location-, topography-, diurnal-, seasonal and stochastic affects. In this work, we develop a hierarchical temporal and spatial deco...

  9. Cluster based hierarchical resource searching model in P2P network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Ruijuan; Liu Jian; Tian Jingwen

    2007-01-01

    For the problem of large network load generated by the Gnutella resource-searching model in Peer to Peer (P2P) network, a improved model to decrease the network expense is proposed, which establishes a duster in P2P network,auto-organizes logical layers, and applies a hybrid mechanism of directional searching and flooding. The performance analysis and simulation results show that the proposed hierarchical searching model has availably reduced the generated message load and that its searching-response time performance is as fairly good as that of the Gnutella model.

  10. The Case for A Hierarchal System Model for Linux Clusters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seager, M; Gorda, B

    2009-06-05

    The computer industry today is no longer driven, as it was in the 40s, 50s and 60s, by High-performance computing requirements. Rather, HPC systems, especially Leadership class systems, sit on top of a pyramid investment mode. Figure 1 shows a representative pyramid investment model for systems hardware. At the base of the pyramid is the huge investment (order 10s of Billions of US Dollars per year) in semiconductor fabrication and process technologies. These costs, which are approximately doubling with every generation, are funded from investments multiple markets: enterprise, desktops, games, embedded and specialized devices. Over and above these base technology investments are investments for critical technology elements such as microprocessor, chipsets and memory ASIC components. Investments for these components are spread across the same markets as the base semiconductor processes investments. These second tier investments are approximately half the size of the lower level of the pyramid. The next technology investment layer up, tier 3, is more focused on scalable computing systems such as those needed for HPC and other markets. These tier 3 technology elements include networking (SAN, WAN and LAN), interconnects and large scalable SMP designs. Above these is tier 4 are relatively small investments necessary to build very large, scalable systems high-end or Leadership class systems. Primary among these are the specialized network designs of vertically integrated systems, etc.

  11. Differentiated digital library evaluation in a hierarchical model stemming from its operational scope and complexity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU; Jianhua; WANG; Zhaohui

    2009-01-01

    Digital libraries are complex systems and this brings difficulties for their evaluation.This paper proposes a hierarchical model to solve this problem,and puts the entangled matters into a clear-layered structure.Firstly,digital libraries(DLs thereafter)are classified into 5 groups in ascending gradations,i.e.mini DLs,small DLs,medium DLs,large DLs,and huge DLs by their scope of operation.Then,according to the characteristics of DLs at different operational scope and level of sophistication,they are further grouped into unitary DLs,union DLs and hybrid DLs accordingly.Based on this simulated structure,a hierarchical model for digital library evaluation is introduced,which evaluates DLs differentiatingly within a hierarchical scheme by using varying criteria based on their specific level of operational complexity such as at the micro-level,medium-level,and/or at the macro-level.Based on our careful examination and analysis of the current literature about DL evaluation system,an experiment is conducted by using the DL evaluation model along with its criteria for unitary DLs at micro-level.The main contents resulting from this evaluation experimentation and also those evaluation indicators and relevant issues of major concerns for DLs at medium-level and macro-level are also to be presented at some length.

  12. Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Crack Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard

    1991-01-01

    On the basis of the B-model developed in [J. L. Bogdanoff and F. Kozin, Probabilistic Models of Cumulative Damage. John Wiley, New York (1985)] a new numerical model incorporating the physical knowledge of fatigue crack propagation is developed. The model is based on the assumption that the crack...

  13. A Predictive Model of Fragmentation using Adaptive Mesh Refinement and a Hierarchical Material Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koniges, A E; Masters, N D; Fisher, A C; Anderson, R W; Eder, D C; Benson, D; Kaiser, T B; Gunney, B T; Wang, P; Maddox, B R; Hansen, J F; Kalantar, D H; Dixit, P; Jarmakani, H; Meyers, M A

    2009-03-03

    Fragmentation is a fundamental material process that naturally spans spatial scales from microscopic to macroscopic. We developed a mathematical framework using an innovative combination of hierarchical material modeling (HMM) and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) to connect the continuum to microstructural regimes. This framework has been implemented in a new multi-physics, multi-scale, 3D simulation code, NIF ALE-AMR. New multi-material volume fraction and interface reconstruction algorithms were developed for this new code, which is leading the world effort in hydrodynamic simulations that combine AMR with ALE (Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian) techniques. The interface reconstruction algorithm is also used to produce fragments following material failure. In general, the material strength and failure models have history vector components that must be advected along with other properties of the mesh during remap stage of the ALE hydrodynamics. The fragmentation models are validated against an electromagnetically driven expanding ring experiment and dedicated laser-based fragmentation experiments conducted at the Jupiter Laser Facility. As part of the exit plan, the NIF ALE-AMR code was applied to a number of fragmentation problems of interest to the National Ignition Facility (NIF). One example shows the added benefit of multi-material ALE-AMR that relaxes the requirement that material boundaries must be along mesh boundaries.

  14. Optimization of Multi-Cluster Fracturing Model under the Action of Induced Stress in Horizontal Wells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanyong Liu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Volume fracturing in shale gas forms complex fracture networks and increases stimulated reservoir volume through large-scale fracturing operation with plug-perforation technology. However, some perforation clusters are stimulated unevenly after fracturing. This study aims to solve this problem by analyzing the shortcomings of the conventional fracturing model and developing a coupled model based on the 2D fracture motion equation, energy conservation law, linear elastic mechanics, and stress superposition principle. First, a multi-fracture in-situ stress model was built by studying the induced stress produced by the fracture initiation to deduce the multi-fracture induced stress impact factor on the basis of the stress superposition principle. Then, the classical Perkins–Kern–Nordgren model was utilized with the crustal stress model. Finally, a precise fracturing design method was used to optimize perforation and fracturing parameters under the new model. Results demonstrate that the interference effect among fractures is the major factor causing the non-uniform propagation of each fracture. Compression on the main horizontal stress increases the net pressure. Therefore, both the degree of operation difficulty and the complexity of fracture geometry are improved. After applying the optimal design, the production is increased by 20%, and the cost is reduced by 15%.

  15. Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM): An Introduction to Key Concepts within Cross-Sectional and Growth Modeling Frameworks. Technical Report #1308

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    This manuscript provides an overview of hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), as part of a series of papers covering topics relevant to consumers of educational research. HLM is tremendously flexible, allowing researchers to specify relations across multiple "levels" of the educational system (e.g., students, classrooms, schools, etc.).…

  16. Market Competitiveness Evaluation of Mechanical Equipment with a Pairwise Comparisons Hierarchical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Fujun

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides a description of how market competitiveness evaluations concerning mechanical equipment can be made in the context of multi-criteria decision environments. It is assumed that, when we are evaluating the market competitiveness, there are limited number of candidates with some required qualifications, and the alternatives will be pairwise compared on a ratio scale. The qualifications are depicted as criteria in hierarchical structure. A hierarchical decision model called PCbHDM was used in this study based on an analysis of its desirable traits. Illustration and comparison shows that the PCbHDM provides a convenient and effective tool for evaluating the market competitiveness of mechanical equipment. The researchers and practitioners might use findings of this paper in application of PCbHDM.

  17. Hybrid and hierarchical nanoreinforced polymer composites: Computational modelling of structure–properties relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishnaevsky, Leon; Dai, Gaoming

    2014-01-01

    Hybrid and hierarchical polymer composites represent a promising group of materials for engineering applications. In this paper, computational studies of the strength and damage resistance of hybrid and hierarchical composites are reviewed. The reserves of the composite improvement are explored...... by using computational micromechanical models. It is shown that while glass/carbon fibers hybrid composites clearly demonstrate higher stiffness and lower weight with increasing the carbon content, they can have lower strength as compared with usual glass fiber polymer composites. Secondary...... nanoreinforcement can drastically increase the fatigue lifetime of composites. Especially, composites with the nanoplatelets localized in the fiber/matrix interface layer (fiber sizing) ensure much higher fatigue lifetime than those with the nanoplatelets in the matrix....

  18. Bayesian latent variable models for hierarchical clustered count outcomes with repeated measures in microbiome studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lizhen; Paterson, Andrew D; Xu, Wei

    2017-04-01

    Motivated by the multivariate nature of microbiome data with hierarchical taxonomic clusters, counts that are often skewed and zero inflated, and repeated measures, we propose a Bayesian latent variable methodology to jointly model multiple operational taxonomic units within a single taxonomic cluster. This novel method can incorporate both negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial responses, and can account for serial and familial correlations. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is built on a data augmentation scheme using Pólya-Gamma random variables. Hierarchical centering and parameter expansion techniques are also used to improve the convergence of the Markov chain. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method through extensive simulations. We also apply our method to a human microbiome study.

  19. Improving Hierarchical Models Using Historical Data with Applications in High-Throughput Genomics Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ben; Li, Yunxiao; Qin, Zhaohui S

    2017-06-01

    Modern high-throughput biotechnologies such as microarray and next generation sequencing produce a massive amount of information for each sample assayed. However, in a typical high-throughput experiment, only limited amount of data are observed for each individual feature, thus the classical 'large p, small n' problem. Bayesian hierarchical model, capable of borrowing strength across features within the same dataset, has been recognized as an effective tool in analyzing such data. However, the shrinkage effect, the most prominent feature of hierarchical features, can lead to undesirable over-correction for some features. In this work, we discuss possible causes of the over-correction problem and propose several alternative solutions. Our strategy is rooted in the fact that in the Big Data era, large amount of historical data are available which should be taken advantage of. Our strategy presents a new framework to enhance the Bayesian hierarchical model. Through simulation and real data analysis, we demonstrated superior performance of the proposed strategy. Our new strategy also enables borrowing information across different platforms which could be extremely useful with emergence of new technologies and accumulation of data from different platforms in the Big Data era. Our method has been implemented in R package "adaptiveHM", which is freely available from https://github.com/benliemory/adaptiveHM.

  20. Gas turbine engine prognostics using Bayesian hierarchical models: A variational approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidan, Martha A.; Mills, Andrew R.; Harrison, Robert F.; Fleming, Peter J.

    2016-03-01

    Prognostics is an emerging requirement of modern health monitoring that aims to increase the fidelity of failure-time predictions by the appropriate use of sensory and reliability information. In the aerospace industry it is a key technology to reduce life-cycle costs, improve reliability and asset availability for a diverse fleet of gas turbine engines. In this work, a Bayesian hierarchical model is selected to utilise fleet data from multiple assets to perform probabilistic estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) for civil aerospace gas turbine engines. The hierarchical formulation allows Bayesian updates of an individual predictive model to be made, based upon data received asynchronously from a fleet of assets with different in-service lives and for the entry of new assets into the fleet. In this paper, variational inference is applied to the hierarchical formulation to overcome the computational and convergence concerns that are raised by the numerical sampling techniques needed for inference in the original formulation. The algorithm is tested on synthetic data, where the quality of approximation is shown to be satisfactory with respect to prediction performance, computational speed, and ease of use. A case study of in-service gas turbine engine data demonstrates the value of integrating fleet data for accurately predicting degradation trajectories of assets.

  1. Hierarchical analytical and simulation modelling of human-machine systems with interference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braginsky, M. Ya; Tarakanov, D. V.; Tsapko, S. G.; Tsapko, I. V.; Baglaeva, E. A.

    2017-01-01

    The article considers the principles of building the analytical and simulation model of the human operator and the industrial control system hardware and software. E-networks as the extension of Petri nets are used as the mathematical apparatus. This approach allows simulating complex parallel distributed processes in human-machine systems. The structural and hierarchical approach is used as the building method for the mathematical model of the human operator. The upper level of the human operator is represented by the logical dynamic model of decision making based on E-networks. The lower level reflects psychophysiological characteristics of the human-operator.

  2. Critical behavior of Gaussian model on diamond-type hierarchical lattices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孔祥木; 李崧

    1999-01-01

    It is proposed that the Gaussian type distribution constant bqi in the Gaussian model depends on the coordination number qi of site i, and that the relation bqi/bqj = qi/qj holds among bqi’s. The Gaussian model is then studied on a family of the diamond-type hierarchical (or DH) lattices, by the decimation real-space renormalization group following spin-resealing method. It is found that the magnetic property of the Gaussian model belongs to the same universal class, and that the critical point K* and the critical exponent v are given by K*= bqi/qi and v=1/2, respectively.

  3. Hierarchical Colored Timed Petri Nets for Maintenance Process Modeling of Civil Aircraft

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FU Cheng-cheng; SUN You-chao; LU Zhong

    2008-01-01

    Civil aircraft maintenance process simulation model is an effective method for analyzing the maintainability of a civil aircraft. First, we present the Hierarchical Colored Timed Petri Nets for maintenance process modeling of civil aircraft. Then, we expound a general method of civil aircraft maintenance activities, determine the maintenance level for decomposition, and propose the methods of describing logic of relations between the maintenance activities based on Petri Net. Finally, a time Colored Petri multi-level network modeling and simulation procedures and steps are given with the maintenance example of the landing gear burst tire of a certain type of aircraft. The feasibility of the method is proved by the example.

  4. Leptin Influences Healing in the Sprague Dawley Rat Fracture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pengcheng; Cai, Ming

    2017-01-01

    Background Leptin plays a crucial role in bone metabolism, and its level is related to bone callus formation in the fracture repair process. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of recombinant leptin on the healing process of femoral fractures in rats. Material/Methods Forty-eight male Sprague Dawley (SD) rats with an average body weight of 389 g (range: 376–398 g) and an average age of 10 weeks were included in this animal research, and all rats were randomly divided into two major groups. Then standardized femur fracture models were implemented in all SD rats. Rats in the control group were treated with only 0.5 mL of physiological saline, and rats in the experimental group were treated with recombinant leptin 5 μg/kg/d along with the same 0.5 mL of physiological saline for 42 days intraperitoneally. At the same time, each major group was evenly divided into three parallel subgroups for each parallel bone evaluation separately at the second, fourth, and sixth weeks. Each subgroup included eight rats. Results The total radiological evaluation results showed that the healing progress of femoral fracture in the experimental group was superior to that in the control group from the fourth week. At the sixth week, experimental group rats began to present significantly better femoral fracture healing progress than that of the control group rats. Results of biomechanics show the ultimate load (N) and deflection ultimate load (mm) of the experimental group rats was significantly increased compared with that of the control group rats from the fourth week. Conclusions Our results suggest that leptin may have a positive effect on SD rat femur fracture healing. PMID:28088810

  5. Numerical Modeling of Variable Fluid Injection-Rate Modes on Fracturing Network Evolution in Naturally Fractured Formations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Wang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, variable injection-rate technology was numerically investigated in a pre-existing discrete fracture network (DFN formation, the Tarim Basin in China. A flow-stress-damage (FSD coupling model has been used in an initial attempt towards how reservoir response to variable injection-rates at different hydraulic fracturing stages. The established numerical model simultaneously considered the macroscopic and microscopic heterogeneity characteristics. Eight numerical cases were studied. Four cases were used to study the variable injection-rate technology, and the other four cases were applied for a constant injection-rate in order to compare with the variable injection-rate technology. The simulation results show that the variable injection-rate technology is a potentially good method to a form complex fracturing networks. The hydraulic fracturing effectiveness when increasing the injection-rate at each stage is the best, also, the total injected fluid is at a minimum. At the initial stage, many under-fracturing points appear around the wellbore with a relatively low injection-rate; the sudden increase of injection rate drives the dynamic propagation of hydraulic fractures along many branching fracturing points. However, the case with decreasing injection rate is the worst. By comparing with constant injection-rate cases, the hydraulic fracturing effectiveness with variable flow rate technology is generally better than those with constant injection-rate technology. This work strongly links the production technology and hydraulic fracturing effectiveness evaluation and aids in the understanding and optimization of hydraulic fracturing simulations in naturally fractured reservoirs.

  6. Analysis of household data on influenza epidemic with Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, C Y; Yen, A M F; Chen, L S; Chen, H H

    2015-03-01

    Data used for modelling the household transmission of infectious diseases, such as influenza, have inherent multilevel structures and correlated property, which make the widely used conventional infectious disease transmission models (including the Greenwood model and the Reed-Frost model) not directly applicable within the context of a household (due to the crowded domestic condition or socioeconomic status of the household). Thus, at the household level, the effects resulting from individual-level factors, such as vaccination, may be confounded or modified in some way. We proposed the Bayesian hierarchical random-effects (random intercepts and random slopes) model under the context of generalised linear model to capture heterogeneity and variation on the individual, generation, and household levels. It was applied to empirical surveillance data on the influenza epidemic in Taiwan. The parameters of interest were estimated by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method in conjunction with the Bayesian directed acyclic graphical models. Comparisons between models were made using the deviance information criterion. Based on the result of the random-slope Bayesian hierarchical method under the context of the Reed-Frost transmission model, the regression coefficient regarding the protective effect of vaccination varied statistically significantly from household to household. The result of such a heterogeneity was robust to the use of different prior distributions (including non-informative, sceptical, and enthusiastic ones). By integrating out the uncertainty of the parameters of the posterior distribution, the predictive distribution was computed to forecast the number of influenza cases allowing for random-household effect.

  7. Brittle fracture phase-field modeling of a short-rod specimen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escobar, Ivana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tupek, Michael R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bishop, Joseph E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Predictive simulation capabilities for modeling fracture evolution provide further insight into quantities of interest in comparison to experimental testing. Based on the variational approach to fracture, the advent of phase-field modeling achieves the goal to robustly model fracture for brittle materials and captures complex crack topologies in three dimensions.

  8. Hierarchical graphs for better annotations of rule-based models of biochemical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Bin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hlavacek, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    In the graph-based formalism of the BioNetGen language (BNGL), graphs are used to represent molecules, with a colored vertex representing a component of a molecule, a vertex label representing the internal state of a component, and an edge representing a bond between components. Components of a molecule share the same color. Furthermore, graph-rewriting rules are used to represent molecular interactions, with a rule that specifies addition (removal) of an edge representing a class of association (dissociation) reactions and with a rule that specifies a change of vertex label representing a class of reactions that affect the internal state of a molecular component. A set of rules comprises a mathematical/computational model that can be used to determine, through various means, the system-level dynamics of molecular interactions in a biochemical system. Here, for purposes of model annotation, we propose an extension of BNGL that involves the use of hierarchical graphs to represent (1) relationships among components and subcomponents of molecules and (2) relationships among classes of reactions defined by rules. We illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to naturally document the structural organization of the functional components and subcomponents of two proteins: the protein tyrosine kinase Lck and the T cell receptor (TCR)/CD3 complex. Likewise, we illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to document the similarity of two related rules for kinase-catalyzed phosphorylation of a protein substrate. We also demonstrate how a hierarchical graph representing a protein can be encoded in an XML-based format.

  9. A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. I. Biological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

    2004-01-01

    that really uses all these methodological improvements. In this paper, the biological model describing the performance and feed intake of sows is presented. In particular, estimation of herd specific parameters is emphasized. The optimization model is described in a subsequent paper......Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological...... improvements like multi-level hierarchical Markov processes with decisions on multiple time scales, efficient methods for parameter estimations at herd level and standard software that has been hardly implemented at all in any replacement model. The aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model...

  10. Implicit level set algorithms for modelling hydraulic fracture propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirce, A

    2016-10-13

    Hydraulic fractures are tensile cracks that propagate in pre-stressed solid media due to the injection of a viscous fluid. Developing numerical schemes to model the propagation of these fractures is particularly challenging due to the degenerate, hypersingular nature of the coupled integro-partial differential equations. These equations typically involve a singular free boundary whose velocity can only be determined by evaluating a distinguished limit. This review paper describes a class of numerical schemes that have been developed to use the multiscale asymptotic behaviour typically encountered near the fracture boundary as multiple physical processes compete to determine the evolution of the fracture. The fundamental concepts of locating the free boundary using the tip asymptotics and imposing the tip asymptotic behaviour in a weak form are illustrated in two quite different formulations of the governing equations. These formulations are the displacement discontinuity boundary integral method and the extended finite-element method. Practical issues are also discussed, including new models for proppant transport able to capture 'tip screen-out'; efficient numerical schemes to solve the coupled nonlinear equations; and fast methods to solve resulting linear systems. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the performance of the numerical schemes. We conclude the paper with open questions for further research. This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy and the subsurface'.

  11. Theory and modelling of diamond fracture from an atomic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Donald W; Shenderova, Olga A

    2015-03-28

    Discussed in this paper are several theoretical and computational approaches that have been used to better understand the fracture of both single-crystal and polycrystalline diamond at the atomic level. The studies, which include first principles calculations, analytic models and molecular simulations, have been chosen to illustrate the different ways in which this problem has been approached, the conclusions and their reliability that have been reached by these methods, and how these theory and modelling methods can be effectively used together.

  12. Hierarchical Modeling and Robust Synthesis for the Preliminary Design of Large Scale Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Patrick N.

    1997-01-01

    Large-scale complex systems are characterized by multiple interacting subsystems and the analysis of multiple disciplines. The design and development of such systems inevitably requires the resolution of multiple conflicting objectives. The size of complex systems, however, prohibits the development of comprehensive system models, and thus these systems must be partitioned into their constituent parts. Because simultaneous solution of individual subsystem models is often not manageable iteration is inevitable and often excessive. In this dissertation these issues are addressed through the development of a method for hierarchical robust preliminary design exploration to facilitate concurrent system and subsystem design exploration, for the concurrent generation of robust system and subsystem specifications for the preliminary design of multi-level, multi-objective, large-scale complex systems. This method is developed through the integration and expansion of current design techniques: Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques for partitioning large-scale complex systems into more tractable parts, and allowing integration of subproblems for system synthesis; Statistical experimentation and approximation techniques for increasing both the efficiency and the comprehensiveness of preliminary design exploration; and Noise modeling techniques for implementing robust preliminary design when approximate models are employed. Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques including intermediate responses, linking variables, and compatibility constraints are incorporated within a hierarchical compromise decision support problem formulation for synthesizing subproblem solutions for a partitioned system. Experimentation and approximation techniques are employed for concurrent investigations and modeling of partitioned subproblems. A modified composite experiment is introduced for fitting better predictive models across the ranges of the factors, and an approach for

  13. Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

    2014-07-01

    Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

  14. Hierarchical multi-scale approach to validation and uncertainty quantification of hyper-spectral image modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Dave W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.; Graff, David L.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2016-05-01

    Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensor level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.

  15. Hierarchical Multi-Scale Approach To Validation and Uncertainty Quantification of Hyper-Spectral Image Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.; Graff, David; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2016-09-17

    Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensor level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.

  16. Prediction models of prevalent radiographic vertebral fractures among older men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schousboe, John T; Rosen, Harold R; Vokes, Tamara J; Cauley, Jane A; Cummings, Steven R; Nevitt, Michael C; Black, Dennis M; Orwoll, Eric S; Kado, Deborah M; Ensrud, Kristine E

    2014-01-01

    No studies have compared how well different prediction models discriminate older men who have a radiographic prevalent vertebral fracture (PVFx) from those who do not. We used area under receiver operating characteristic curves and a net reclassification index to compare how well regression-derived prediction models and nonregression prediction tools identify PVFx among men age ≥65 yr with femoral neck T-score of -1.0 or less enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. The area under receiver operating characteristic for a model with age, bone mineral density, and historical height loss (HHL) was 0.682 compared with 0.692 for a complex model with age, bone mineral density, HHL, prior non-spine fracture, body mass index, back pain, grip strength, smoking, and glucocorticoid use (p values for difference in 5 bootstrapped samples 0.14-0.92). This complex model, using a cutpoint prevalence of 5%, correctly reclassified only a net 5.7% (p = 0.13) of men as having or not having a PVFx compared with a simple criteria list (age ≥ 80 yr, HHL >4 cm, or glucocorticoid use). In conclusion, simple criteria identify older men with PVFx and regression-based models. Future research to identify additional risk factors that more accurately identify older men with PVFx is needed.

  17. A hierarchical Bayesian model for embedding larval drift and habitat models in integrated life cycles for exploited fish

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the life cycle of marine exploited fish with a spatial perspective. The application was developed for a nursery-dependent fish species, the common sole (Solea solea), on the Eastern Channel population (Western Europe). The approach combined processes of different natures and various sources of observations within an integrated framework for life-cycle modeling: (1) outputs of an individual-based model for larval drift and surv...

  18. Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.

  19. 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures and hip fractures according to Ukrainian model of FRAX® in women with vertebral fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.V. Grygorieva

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background. Vertebral fractures are one of the severe complications of systemic osteoporosis, which lead to the low-back pain, decrease or loss of efficiency and increase of mortality in older people. FRAX and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA are important methods in determining major osteoporotic fractures risk, including vertebral fractures. Materials and methods. We studied the parameters of Ukrainian model of FRAX in women depending on the presence of vertebral fractures. 652 patients aged 40–89 years examined at the Ukrainian Scientific Medical Center of Osteoporosis were divided into two groups: the first one — 523 women without any previous fractures, the second one — 129 patients with previous vertebral fractures. The assessment of bone mineral density (BMD was performed using DXA (Prodigy, General Electric. The 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (FRAX-MOF and hip fractures (FRAX-HF has been determined using Ukrainian model of FRAX according to two methods — with body mass index (FRAXBMI and BMD. Results. According the distribution of FRAXBMI-MOF parameters in women depending on the presence of vertebral fractures, it was found that index of FRAXBMI-MOF was less than 20 % (the limit indicated as the criterion for treatment initiation in US guidelines in 100 and 100 % of subjects, respectively. The indices of FRAX BMD-HF were less than 3 % (the limit for starting treatment in US guidelines in 95 and 55 % of women, respectively. It was shown the significant moderate correlation between the indices of two methods in all groups for both parameters of the algorithm — FRAX-MOF and FRAX-HF. Conclusions. The study of the age-specific features of FRAX in women depending on the presence of vertebral fractures showed a significant increase in the risks for both major osteoporotic and hip fractures, regardless of the used technique (with BMI or BMD in women with vertebral fractures or without any fractures. Our

  20. HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiecki, Thomas V; Sofer, Imri; Frank, Michael J

    2013-01-01

    The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision-making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on response times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of response time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model), which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject/condition than non-hierarchical methods, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g., fMRI) influence decision-making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of the drift diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the χ(2)-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs/

  1. HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas V Wiecki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on reaction times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of reaction time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model, which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject / condition than non-hierarchical method, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g. fMRI influence decision making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of drift-diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the chi-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs

  2. Anisotropic Heisenberg model on hierarchical lattices with aperiodic interactions: a renormalization-group approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branco, N S; de Sousa, J Ricardo; Ghosh, Angsula

    2008-03-01

    Using a real-space renormalization-group approximation, we study the anisotropic quantum Heisenberg model on hierarchical lattices, with interactions following aperiodic sequences. Three different sequences are considered, with relevant and irrelevant fluctuations, according to the Luck-Harris criterion. The phase diagram is discussed as a function of the anisotropy parameter Delta (such that Delta=0 and 1 correspond to the isotropic Heisenberg and Ising models, respectively). We find three different types of phase diagrams, with general characteristics: the isotropic Heisenberg plane is always an invariant one (as expected by symmetry arguments) and the critical behavior of the anisotropic Heisenberg model is governed by fixed points on the Ising-model plane. Our results for the isotropic Heisenberg model show that the relevance or irrelevance of aperiodic models, when compared to their uniform counterpart, is as predicted by the Harris-Luck criterion. A low-temperature renormalization-group procedure was applied to the classical isotropic Heisenberg model in two-dimensional hierarchical lattices: the relevance criterion is obtained, again in accordance with the Harris-Luck criterion.

  3. Mesoscale Characterization of Fracture Properties of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Using a Lattice–Particle Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Montero-Chacón

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a lattice–particle model for the analysis of steel fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC. In this approach, fibers are explicitly modeled and connected to the concrete matrix lattice via interface elements. The interface behavior was calibrated by means of pullout tests and a range for the bond properties is proposed. The model was validated with analytical and experimental results under uniaxial tension and compression, demonstrating the ability of the model to correctly describe the effect of fiber volume fraction and distribution on fracture properties of SFRC. The lattice–particle model was integrated into a hierarchical homogenization-based scheme in which macroscopic material parameters are obtained from mesoscale simulations. Moreover, a representative volume element (RVE analysis was carried out and the results shows that such an RVE does exist in the post-peak regime and until localization takes place. Finally, the multiscale upscaling strategy was successfully validated with three-point bending tests.

  4. A hierarchical model for probabilistic independent component analysis of multi-subject fMRI studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ying; Tang, Li

    2013-12-01

    An important goal in fMRI studies is to decompose the observed series of brain images to identify and characterize underlying brain functional networks. Independent component analysis (ICA) has been shown to be a powerful computational tool for this purpose. Classic ICA has been successfully applied to single-subject fMRI data. The extension of ICA to group inferences in neuroimaging studies, however, is challenging due to the unavailability of a pre-specified group design matrix. Existing group ICA methods generally concatenate observed fMRI data across subjects on the temporal domain and then decompose multi-subject data in a similar manner to single-subject ICA. The major limitation of existing methods is that they ignore between-subject variability in spatial distributions of brain functional networks in group ICA. In this article, we propose a new hierarchical probabilistic group ICA method to formally model subject-specific effects in both temporal and spatial domains when decomposing multi-subject fMRI data. The proposed method provides model-based estimation of brain functional networks at both the population and subject level. An important advantage of the hierarchical model is that it provides a formal statistical framework to investigate similarities and differences in brain functional networks across subjects, for example, subjects with mental disorders or neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson's as compared to normal subjects. We develop an EM algorithm for model estimation where both the E-step and M-step have explicit forms. We compare the performance of the proposed hierarchical model with that of two popular group ICA methods via simulation studies. We illustrate our method with application to an fMRI study of Zen meditation.

  5. Hierarchical modeling for rare event detection and cell subset alignment across flow cytometry samples.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Cron

    Full Text Available Flow cytometry is the prototypical assay for multi-parameter single cell analysis, and is essential in vaccine and biomarker research for the enumeration of antigen-specific lymphocytes that are often found in extremely low frequencies (0.1% or less. Standard analysis of flow cytometry data relies on visual identification of cell subsets by experts, a process that is subjective and often difficult to reproduce. An alternative and more objective approach is the use of statistical models to identify cell subsets of interest in an automated fashion. Two specific challenges for automated analysis are to detect extremely low frequency event subsets without biasing the estimate by pre-processing enrichment, and the ability to align cell subsets across multiple data samples for comparative analysis. In this manuscript, we develop hierarchical modeling extensions to the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM approach we have previously described for cell subset identification, and show that the hierarchical DPGMM (HDPGMM naturally generates an aligned data model that captures both commonalities and variations across multiple samples. HDPGMM also increases the sensitivity to extremely low frequency events by sharing information across multiple samples analyzed simultaneously. We validate the accuracy and reproducibility of HDPGMM estimates of antigen-specific T cells on clinically relevant reference peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC samples with known frequencies of antigen-specific T cells. These cell samples take advantage of retrovirally TCR-transduced T cells spiked into autologous PBMC samples to give a defined number of antigen-specific T cells detectable by HLA-peptide multimer binding. We provide open source software that can take advantage of both multiple processors and GPU-acceleration to perform the numerically-demanding computations. We show that hierarchical modeling is a useful probabilistic approach that can provide a

  6. Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River Basin using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Chen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A Hierarchal Bayesian model for forecasting regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead using exogenous climate variables for East Central China is presented. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multilevel structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multivariate normal distribution results in partial-pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include Receiver Operating Characteristic, Reduction of Error, Coefficient of Efficiency, Rank Probability Skill Scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies.

  7. Efficient Actor-Critic Algorithm with Hierarchical Model Learning and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, QiMing

    2016-01-01

    To improve the convergence rate and the sample efficiency, two efficient learning methods AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP (AC-HMLP with ℓ2-regularization) are proposed by combining actor-critic algorithm with hierarchical model learning and planning. The hierarchical models consisting of the local and the global models, which are learned at the same time during learning of the value function and the policy, are approximated by local linear regression (LLR) and linear function approximation (LFA), respectively. Both the local model and the global model are applied to generate samples for planning; the former is used only if the state-prediction error does not surpass the threshold at each time step, while the latter is utilized at the end of each episode. The purpose of taking both models is to improve the sample efficiency and accelerate the convergence rate of the whole algorithm through fully utilizing the local and global information. Experimentally, AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP are compared with three representative algorithms on two Reinforcement Learning (RL) benchmark problems. The results demonstrate that they perform best in terms of convergence rate and sample efficiency. PMID:27795704

  8. Multi-scale hierarchical approach for parametric mapping: assessment on multi-compartmental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, G; Turkheimer, F E; Bertoldo, A

    2013-02-15

    This paper investigates a new hierarchical method to apply basis function to mono- and multi-compartmental models (Hierarchical-Basis Function Method, H-BFM) at a voxel level. This method identifies the parameters of the compartmental model in its nonlinearized version, integrating information derived at the region of interest (ROI) level by segmenting the cerebral volume based on anatomical definition or functional clustering. We present the results obtained by using a two tissue-four rate constant model with two different tracers ([(11)C]FLB457 and [carbonyl-(11)C]WAY100635), one of the most complex models used in receptor studies, especially at the voxel level. H-BFM is robust and its application on both [(11)C]FLB457 and [carbonyl-(11)C]WAY100635 allows accurate and precise parameter estimates, good quality parametric maps and a low percentage of voxels out of physiological bound (approach for PET quantification by using compartmental modeling at the voxel level. In particular, different from other proposed approaches, this method can also be used when the linearization of the model is not appropriate. We expect that applying it to clinical data will generate reliable parametric maps. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Fractured reservoir discrete feature network technologies. Final report, March 7, 1996 to September 30, 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, William S.; Einstein, Herbert H.; LaPoint, Paul R.; Eiben, Thorsten; Wadleigh, Eugene; Ivanova, Violeta

    1998-12-01

    This report summarizes research conducted for the Fractured Reservoir Discrete Feature Network Technologies Project. The five areas studied are development of hierarchical fracture models; fractured reservoir compartmentalization, block size, and tributary volume analysis; development and demonstration of fractured reservoir discrete feature data analysis tools; development of tools for data integration and reservoir simulation through application of discrete feature network technologies for tertiary oil production; quantitative evaluation of the economic value of this analysis approach.

  10. Trans-dimensional inversion of microtremor array dispersion data with hierarchical autoregressive error models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettmer, Jan; Molnar, Sheri; Steininger, Gavin; Dosso, Stan E.; Cassidy, John F.

    2012-02-01

    This paper applies a general trans-dimensional Bayesian inference methodology and hierarchical autoregressive data-error models to the inversion of microtremor array dispersion data for shear wave velocity (vs) structure. This approach accounts for the limited knowledge of the optimal earth model parametrization (e.g. the number of layers in the vs profile) and of the data-error statistics in the resulting vs parameter uncertainty estimates. The assumed earth model parametrization influences estimates of parameter values and uncertainties due to different parametrizations leading to different ranges of data predictions. The support of the data for a particular model is often non-unique and several parametrizations may be supported. A trans-dimensional formulation accounts for this non-uniqueness by including a model-indexing parameter as an unknown so that groups of models (identified by the indexing parameter) are considered in the results. The earth model is parametrized in terms of a partition model with interfaces given over a depth-range of interest. In this work, the number of interfaces (layers) in the partition model represents the trans-dimensional model indexing. In addition, serial data-error correlations are addressed by augmenting the geophysical forward model with a hierarchical autoregressive error model that can account for a wide range of error processes with a small number of parameters. Hence, the limited knowledge about the true statistical distribution of data errors is also accounted for in the earth model parameter estimates, resulting in more realistic uncertainties and parameter values. Hierarchical autoregressive error models do not rely on point estimates of the model vector to estimate data-error statistics, and have no requirement for computing the inverse or determinant of a data-error covariance matrix. This approach is particularly useful for trans-dimensional inverse problems, as point estimates may not be representative of the

  11. Formation of shatter cones by symmetric fracture bifurcation: Phenomenological modeling and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenkmann, Thomas; Hergarten, Stefan; Kuhn, Thomas; Wilk, Jakob

    2016-08-01

    Several models of shatter cone formation require a heterogeneity at the cone apex of high impedance mismatch to the surrounding bulk rock. This heterogeneity is the source of spherically expanding waves that interact with the planar shock front or the following release wave. While these models are capable of explaining the overall conical shape of shatter cones, they are not capable of explaining the subcone structure and the diverging and branching striations that characterize the surface of shatter cones and lead to the so-called horse-tailing effect. Here, we use the hierarchical arrangement of subcone ridges of shatter cone surfaces as key for understanding their formation. Tracing a single subcone ridge from its apex downward reveals that each ridge branches after some distance into two symmetrically equivalent subcone ridges. This pattern is repeated to form new branches. We propose that subcone ridges represent convex-curved fracture surfaces and their intersection corresponds to the bifurcation axis. The characteristic diverging striations are interpreted as the intersection lineations delimiting each subcone. Multiple symmetric crack branching is the result of rapid fracture propagation that may approach the Raleigh wave speed. We present a phenomenological model that fully constructs the shatter cone geometry to any order. The overall cone geometry including apex angle of the enveloping cone and the degree of concavity (horse-tailing) is largely governed by the convexity of the subcone ridges. Straight cones of various apical angles, constant slope, and constant bifurcation angles form if the subcone convexity is low (30°). Increasing subcone convexity leads to a stronger horse-tailing effect and the bifurcation angles increase with increasing distance from the enveloping cone apex. The model predicts possible triples of enveloping cone angle, bifurcation angle, and subcone angle. Measurements of these quantities on four shatter cones from different

  12. Geological discrete fracture network model for the Laxemar site. Site Descriptive Modelling. SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Pointe, Paul; Fox, Aaron (Golder Associates Inc (United States)); Hermanson, Jan; Oehman, Johan (Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is performing site characterization at two different locations, Forsmark and Laxemar, in order to locate a site for a final geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel. The program is built upon the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDMs) at specific timed data freezes. Each SDM is formed from discipline-specific reports from across the scientific spectrum. This report describes the methods, analyses, and conclusions of the modelling team in the production of the SDM-Site Laxemar geological discrete-fracture network (DFN) model. The DFN builds upon the work of other geological models, including the deformation zone and rock domain models. The geological DFN is a statistical model for stochastically simulating rock fractures and minor deformation zones at a scale of less than 1,000 m (the lower cut-off of the DZ models). The geological DFN is valid within six distinct fracture domains inside the Laxemar local model subarea: FSM{sub C}, FSM{sub E}W007, FSM{sub N}, FSM{sub N}E005, FSM{sub S}, and FSM{sub W}. The models are built using data from detailed surface outcrop maps, geophysical lineament maps, and the cored borehole record at Laxemar. The conceptual model for the SDM-Site Laxemar geological DFN model revolves around the identification of fracture domains based on relative fracture set intensities, orientation clustering, and the regional tectonic framework (including deformation zones). A single coupled fracture size/fracture intensity concept (the Base Model) based on a Pareto (power-law) distribution for fracture sizes was chosen as the recommended parameterisation. A slew of alternative size-intensity models were also carried through the fracture analyses and into the uncertainty and model verification analyses. Uncertainty is modelled by analysing the effects on fracture intensity (P32) that alternative model cases can have. Uncertainty is parameterised as a ratio between the P32 of the

  13. A nonequilibrium model for reactive contaminant transport through fractured porous media: Model development and semianalytical solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Nitin; Ojha, C. S. P.; Sharma, P. K.

    2012-10-01

    In this study a conceptual model that accounts for the effects of nonequilibrium contaminant transport in a fractured porous media is developed. Present model accounts for both physical and sorption nonequilibrium. Analytical solution was developed using the Laplace transform technique, which was then numerically inverted to obtain solute concentration in the fracture matrix system. The semianalytical solution developed here can incorporate both semi-infinite and finite fracture matrix extent. In addition, the model can account for flexible boundary conditions and nonzero initial condition in the fracture matrix system. The present semianalytical solution was validated against the existing analytical solutions for the fracture matrix system. In order to differentiate between various sorption/transport mechanism different cases of sorption and mass transfer were analyzed by comparing the breakthrough curves and temporal moments. It was found that significant differences in the signature of sorption and mass transfer exists. Applicability of the developed model was evaluated by simulating the published experimental data of Calcium and Strontium transport in a single fracture. The present model simulated the experimental data reasonably well in comparison to the model based on equilibrium sorption assumption in fracture matrix system, and multi rate mass transfer model.

  14. A model for fracturation in the Loyalty Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdanov, Igor; Huaman, David; Thovert, Jean-François; Genthon, Pierre; Adler, Pierre M.

    2007-10-01

    The Loyalty Islands are a series of limestone karstified islands that are currently uplifted and deformed on the elastic bulge of the Australian plate before its subduction at the Vanuatu trench (SW Pacific). These islands have been extensively surveyed for geology and hydrogeology, and fracturation maps have been produced which indicate a major direction N110±35°. This fracture orientation is analytically modeled as resulting from the elastic deformation of the Australian lithosphere before its subduction. First, the vertical deflection around a circular subduction zone is determined. Second, a point force is introduced which accounts for the first stages of a collision between the Loyalty ridge and this circular subduction zone. This model yields principal stress orientations and elevations of the islands in fair agreement with real data.

  15. Contextual Hierarchical Part-Driven Conditional Random Field Model for Object Category Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lizhen Wu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Even though several promising approaches have been proposed in the literature, generic category-level object detection is still challenging due to high intraclass variability and ambiguity in the appearance among different object instances. From the view of constructing object models, the balance between flexibility and discrimination must be taken into consideration. Motivated by these demands, we propose a novel contextual hierarchical part-driven conditional random field (CRF model, which is based on not only individual object part appearance but also model contextual interactions of the parts simultaneously. By using a latent two-layer hierarchical formulation of labels and a weighted neighborhood structure, the model can effectively encode the dependencies among object parts. Meanwhile, beta-stable local features are introduced as observed data to ensure the discriminative and robustness of part description. The object category detection problem can be solved in a probabilistic framework using a supervised learning method based on maximum a posteriori (MAP estimation. The benefits of the proposed model are demonstrated on the standard dataset and satellite images.

  16. A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Bal

    Full Text Available Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i an emotive simulated example, ii application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife.

  17. A hierarchical statistical model for estimating population properties of quantitative genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Rongling

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Earlier methods for detecting major genes responsible for a quantitative trait rely critically upon a well-structured pedigree in which the segregation pattern of genes exactly follow Mendelian inheritance laws. However, for many outcrossing species, such pedigrees are not available and genes also display population properties. Results In this paper, a hierarchical statistical model is proposed to monitor the existence of a major gene based on its segregation and transmission across two successive generations. The model is implemented with an EM algorithm to provide maximum likelihood estimates for genetic parameters of the major locus. This new method is successfully applied to identify an additive gene having a large effect on stem height growth of aspen trees. The estimates of population genetic parameters for this major gene can be generalized to the original breeding population from which the parents were sampled. A simulation study is presented to evaluate finite sample properties of the model. Conclusions A hierarchical model was derived for detecting major genes affecting a quantitative trait based on progeny tests of outcrossing species. The new model takes into account the population genetic properties of genes and is expected to enhance the accuracy, precision and power of gene detection.

  18. Hierarchical calibration and validation of computational fluid dynamics models for solid sorbent-based carbon capture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, Canhai; Xu, Zhijie; Pan, Wenxiao; Sun, Xin; Storlie, Curtis; Marcy, Peter; Dietiker, Jean-François; Li, Tingwen; Spenik, James

    2016-01-01

    To quantify the predictive confidence of a solid sorbent-based carbon capture design, a hierarchical validation methodology—consisting of basic unit problems with increasing physical complexity coupled with filtered model-based geometric upscaling has been developed and implemented. This paper describes the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) multi-phase reactive flow simulations and the associated data flows among different unit problems performed within the said hierarchical validation approach. The bench-top experiments used in this calibration and validation effort were carefully designed to follow the desired simple-to-complex unit problem hierarchy, with corresponding data acquisition to support model parameters calibrations at each unit problem level. A Bayesian calibration procedure is employed and the posterior model parameter distributions obtained at one unit-problem level are used as prior distributions for the same parameters in the next-tier simulations. Overall, the results have demonstrated that the multiphase reactive flow models within MFIX can be used to capture the bed pressure, temperature, CO2 capture capacity, and kinetics with quantitative accuracy. The CFD modeling methodology and associated uncertainty quantification techniques presented herein offer a solid framework for estimating the predictive confidence in the virtual scale up of a larger carbon capture device.

  19. Hierarchical Network Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomadsen, Tommy

    2005-01-01

    Communication networks are immensely important today, since both companies and individuals use numerous services that rely on them. This thesis considers the design of hierarchical (communication) networks. Hierarchical networks consist of layers of networks and are well-suited for coping...... the clusters. The design of hierarchical networks involves clustering of nodes, hub selection, and network design, i.e. selection of links and routing of ows. Hierarchical networks have been in use for decades, but integrated design of these networks has only been considered for very special types of networks....... The thesis investigates models for hierarchical network design and methods used to design such networks. In addition, ring network design is considered, since ring networks commonly appear in the design of hierarchical networks. The thesis introduces hierarchical networks, including a classification scheme...

  20. Modeling the Competitiveness of Indonesian Palm Oil Industry: A Conceptual Model Using Hierarchical Multi-Level System Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Y.H. Silitonga

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesian Palm Oil Industry has the largest market share in the world, but still faces problems in order to strengthen the level of competitiveness. Those problems are in the industry chains, government regulation and policy as meso environment, and macro economic condition. Therefore these three elements should be considered when analyzing the improvement of competitiveness. Here, the governmental element is hoped to create a conducive environment. This paper presents the industry competitiveness conceptual model, using hierarchical multilevel system approach. The Hierarchical multilevel system approach is used to accommodate the complexity of the industrial relation and the government position as the meso environment. The step to develop the model firstly is to define the relevant system. Secondly, is to formulate the output of the model that is competitiveness in the form of indicator. Then, the relevant system with competitiveness as the output is built into a conceptual model using hierarchical multilevel system. The conceptual model is then discussed to see if it can explain the relevant system, and the potential of it to be developed into mathematical model.

  1. Comparison of different modeling approaches to simulate contaminant transport in a fractured limestone aquifer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosthaf, Klaus; Rosenberg, L.; Balbarini, Nicola

    approaches have been developed to describe contaminant transport in fractured media, such as the discrete fracture (with various fracture geometries), equivalent porous media (with and without anisotropy), and dual porosity models. However, these modeling concepts are not well tested for limestone geologies...... of field data is the determination of relevant hydraulic properties and interpretation of aqueous and solid phase contaminant concentration sampling data. Traditional water sampling has a bias towards fracture sampling, however concentrations in the limestone matrix are needed for assessing contaminant...

  2. Implicit fracture modelling in FLAC3D: Assessing the behaviour of fractured shales, carbonates and other fractured rock types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, S.; Pizzocolo, F.; Veer, E.F. van der; Heege, J.H. ter

    2016-01-01

    Fractured rocks play an important role in many types of petroleum and geo-energy operations. From fractured limestone reservoirs to unconventionals, understanding the geomechanical behaviour and the dynamically coupled (dual) permeability system is paramount for optimal development of these systems.

  3. Elasto-viscoplastic phase field modelling of anisotropic cleavage fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanthraj, P.; Svendsen, B.; Sharma, L.; Roters, F.; Raabe, D.

    2017-02-01

    A finite-strain anisotropic phase field method is developed to model the localisation of damage on a defined family of crystallographic planes, characteristic of cleavage fracture in metals. The approach is based on the introduction of an undamaged configuration, and the inelastic deformation gradient mapping this configuration to a damaged configuration is microstructurally represented by the opening of a set of cleavage planes in the three fracture modes. Crack opening is modelled as a dissipative process, and its evolution is thermodynamically derived. To couple this approach with a physically-based phase field method for brittle fracture, a scalar measure of the overall local damage is introduced, whose evolution is determined by the crack opening rates, and weakly coupled with the non-local phase field energy representing the crack opening resistance in the classical sense of Griffith. A finite-element implementation of the proposed model is employed to simulate the crack propagation path in a laminate and a polycrystalline microstructure. As shown in this work, it is able to predict the localisation of damage on the set of pre-defined cleavage planes, as well as the kinking and branching of the crack resulting from the crystallographic misorientation across the laminate boundary and the grain boundaries respectively.

  4. Contaminated open fracture and crush injury:a murine model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shawn R Gilbert; Justin Camara; Richard Camara; Lynn Duffy; Ken Waites; Hyunki Kim; Kurt Zinn

    2015-01-01

    Modern warfare has caused a large number of severe extremity injuries, many of which become infected. In more recent conflicts, a pattern of co-infection with Acinetobacter baumannii and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus has emerged. We attempted to recreate this pattern in an animal model to evaluate the role of vascularity in contaminated open fractures. Historically, it has been observed that infected bones frequently appear hypovascular, but vascularity in association with bone infection has not been examined in animal models. Adult rats underwent femur fracture and muscle crush injury followed by stabilization and bacterial contamination with A. baumannii complex and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Vascularity and perfusion were assessed by microCT angiography and SPECT scanning, respectively, at 1, 2 and 4 weeks after injury. Quantitative bacterial cultures were also obtained. Multi-bacterial infections were successfully created, with methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominating. There was overall increase in blood flow to injured limbs that was markedly greater in bacteria-inoculated limbs. Vessel volume was greater in the infected group. Quadriceps atrophy was seen in both groups, but was greater in the infected group. In this animal model, infected open fractures had greater perfusion and vascularity than non-infected limbs.

  5. A model of shape memory materials with hierarchical twinning: Statics and dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saxena, A.; Bishop, A.R. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Shenoy, S.R. [International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Wu, Y.; Lookman, T. [Western Ontario Univ., London, Ontario (Canada). Dept. of Applied Mathematics

    1995-07-01

    We consider a model of shape memory material in which hierarchical twinning near the habit plane (austenite-martensite interface) is a new and crucial ingredient. The model includes (1) a triple-well potential ({phi} model) in local shear strain, (2) strain gradient terms up to second order in strain and fourth order in gradient, and (3) all symmetry allowed compositional fluctuation induced strain gradient terms. The last term favors hierarchy which enables communication between macroscopic (cm) and microscopic ({Angstrom}) regions essential for shape memory. Hierarchy also stabilizes between formation (critical pattern of twins). External stress or pressure (pattern) modulates the spacing of domain walls. Therefore the ``pattern`` is encoded in the modulated hierarchical variation of the depth and width of the twins. This hierarchy of length scales provides a hierarchy of time scales and thus the possibility of non-exponential decay. The four processes of the complete shape memory cycle -- write, record, erase and recall -- are explained within this model. Preliminary results based on 2D Langevin dynamics are shown for tweed and hierarchy formation.

  6. Clustering dynamic textures with the hierarchical em algorithm for modeling video.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Adeel; Coviello, Emanuele; Lanckriet, Gert R G; Chan, Antoni B

    2013-07-01

    Dynamic texture (DT) is a probabilistic generative model, defined over space and time, that represents a video as the output of a linear dynamical system (LDS). The DT model has been applied to a wide variety of computer vision problems, such as motion segmentation, motion classification, and video registration. In this paper, we derive a new algorithm for clustering DT models that is based on the hierarchical EM algorithm. The proposed clustering algorithm is capable of both clustering DTs and learning novel DT cluster centers that are representative of the cluster members in a manner that is consistent with the underlying generative probabilistic model of the DT. We also derive an efficient recursive algorithm for sensitivity analysis of the discrete-time Kalman smoothing filter, which is used as the basis for computing expectations in the E-step of the HEM algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the clustering algorithm on several applications in motion analysis, including hierarchical motion clustering, semantic motion annotation, and learning bag-of-systems (BoS) codebooks for dynamic texture recognition.

  7. Nonlinear hierarchical multiscale modeling of cortical bone considering its nanoscale microstructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanbari, J; Naghdabadi, R

    2009-07-22

    We have used a hierarchical multiscale modeling scheme for the analysis of cortical bone considering it as a nanocomposite. This scheme consists of definition of two boundary value problems, one for macroscale, and another for microscale. The coupling between these scales is done by using the homogenization technique. At every material point in which the constitutive model is needed, a microscale boundary value problem is defined using a macroscopic kinematical quantity and solved. Using the described scheme, we have studied elastic properties of cortical bone considering its nanoscale microstructural constituents with various mineral volume fractions. Since the microstructure of bone consists of mineral platelet with nanometer size embedded in a protein matrix, it is similar to the microstructure of soft matrix nanocomposites reinforced with hard nanostructures. Considering a representative volume element (RVE) of the microstructure of bone as the microscale problem in our hierarchical multiscale modeling scheme, the global behavior of bone is obtained under various macroscopic loading conditions. This scheme may be suitable for modeling arbitrary bone geometries subjected to a variety of loading conditions. Using the presented method, mechanical properties of cortical bone including elastic moduli and Poisson's ratios in two major directions and shear modulus is obtained for different mineral volume fractions.

  8. Hierarchical Bayesian Markov switching models with application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holan, S.H.; Davis, G.M.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    The timing of spawning in fish is tightly linked to environmental factors; however, these factors are not very well understood for many species. Specifically, little information is available to guide recruitment efforts for endangered species such as the sturgeon. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the success of spawning of the shovelnose sturgeon which uses both biological and behavioural (longitudinal) data. In particular, we use data that were produced from a tracking study that was conducted in the Lower Missouri River. The data that were produced from this study consist of biological variables associated with readiness to spawn along with longitudinal behavioural data collected by using telemetry and archival data storage tags. These high frequency data are complex both biologically and in the underlying behavioural process. To accommodate such complexity we developed a hierarchical linear regression model that uses an eigenvalue predictor, derived from the transition probability matrix of a two-state Markov switching model with generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic dynamics. Finally, to minimize the computational burden that is associated with estimation of this model, a parallel computing approach is proposed. ?? Journal compilation 2009 Royal Statistical Society.

  9. Hierarchical spatial models for predicting pygmy rabbit distribution and relative abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, T.L.; Odei, J.B.; Hooten, M.B.; Edwards, T.C.

    2010-01-01

    Conservationists routinely use species distribution models to plan conservation, restoration and development actions, while ecologists use them to infer process from pattern. These models tend to work well for common or easily observable species, but are of limited utility for rare and cryptic species. This may be because honest accounting of known observation bias and spatial autocorrelation are rarely included, thereby limiting statistical inference of resulting distribution maps. We specified and implemented a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model for a cryptic mammal species (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis). Our approach used two levels of indirect sign that are naturally hierarchical (burrows and faecal pellets) to build a model that allows for inference on regression coefficients as well as spatially explicit model parameters. We also produced maps of rabbit distribution (occupied burrows) and relative abundance (number of burrows expected to be occupied by pygmy rabbits). The model demonstrated statistically rigorous spatial prediction by including spatial autocorrelation and measurement uncertainty. We demonstrated flexibility of our modelling framework by depicting probabilistic distribution predictions using different assumptions of pygmy rabbit habitat requirements. Spatial representations of the variance of posterior predictive distributions were obtained to evaluate heterogeneity in model fit across the spatial domain. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to evaluate the overall model fit. Synthesis and applications. Our method draws on the strengths of previous work, thereby bridging and extending two active areas of ecological research: species distribution models and multi-state occupancy modelling. Our framework can be extended to encompass both larger extents and other species for which direct estimation of abundance is difficult. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

  10. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  11. Hierarchical competition models with the Allee effect II: the case of immigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assas, Laila; Dennis, Brian; Elaydi, Saber; Kwessi, Eddy; Livadiotis, George

    2015-01-01

    This is part II of an earlier paper that dealt with hierarchical models with the Allee effect but with no immigration. In this paper, we greatly simplify the proofs in part I and provide a proof of the global dynamics of the non-hyperbolic cases that were previously conjectured. Then, we show how immigration to one of the species or to both would, drastically, change the dynamics of the system. It is shown that if the level of immigration to one or to both species is above a specified level, then there will be no extinction region where both species go to extinction.

  12. Critical behavior of the Ising model on a hierarchical lattice with aperiodic interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinho, S. T. R.; Haddad, T. A. S.; Salinas, S. R.

    We write the exact renormalization-group recursion relations for nearest-neighbor ferromagnetic Ising models on Migdal-Kadanoff hierarchical lattices with a distribution of aperiodic exchange interactions according to a class of substitutional sequences. For small geometric fluctuations, the critical behavior is unchanged with respect to the uniform case. For large fluctuations, as in the case of the Rudin-Shapiro sequence, the uniform fixed point in the parameter space cannot be reached from any physical initial conditions. We derive a criterion to check the relevance of the geometric fluctuations.

  13. Assessing the Graphical and Algorithmic Structure of Hierarchical Coloured Petri Net Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Benwell

    1994-11-01

    Full Text Available Petri nets, as a modelling formalism, are utilised for the analysis of processes, whether for explicit understanding, database design or business process re-engineering. The formalism, however, can be represented on a virtual continuum from highly graphical to largely algorithmic. The use and understanding of the formalism will, in part, therefore depend on the resultant complexity and power of the representation and, on the graphical or algorithmic preference of the user. This paper develops a metric which will indicate the graphical or algorithmic tendency of hierarchical coloured Petri nets.

  14. Triviality of hierarchical O(N) spin model in four dimensions with large N

    CERN Document Server

    Watanabe, H

    2003-01-01

    The renormalization group transformation for the hierarchical O(N) spin model in four dimensions is studied by means of characteristic functions of single-site measures, and convergence of the critical trajectory to the Gaussian fixed point is shown for a sufficiently large N. In the strong coupling regime, the trajectory is controlled by the help of the exactly solved O(\\infty) trajectory, while, in the weak coupling regime, convergence to the Gaussian fixed point is shown by power decay of the effective coupling constant.

  15. Hierarchical nanoreinforced composites for highly reliable large wind turbines: Computational modelling and optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishnaevsky, Leon

    2014-01-01

    , with modified, hybridor nanomodified structures. In this project, we seek to explore the potential of hybrid (carbon/glass),nanoreinforced and hierarchical composites (with secondary CNT, graphene or nanoclay reinforcement) as future materials for highly reliable large wind turbines. Using 3D multiscale...... computational models ofthe composites, we study the effect of hybrid structure and of nanomodifications on the strength, lifetime and service properties of the materials (see Figure 1). As a result, a series of recommendations toward the improvement of composites for structural applications under long term...

  16. Study of the relationship between organizational culture and organizational outcomes using hierarchical linear modeling methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonova, Elena A; Hernandez, S Robert; Shewchuk, Richard M; Leddy, Kelly M

    2006-01-01

    This study examines how perceptions of organizational culture influence organizational outcomes, specially, individual employee job satisfaction. The study was conducted in the health care industry in the United States. It examined the data on employee perceptions of job attributes, organizational culture, and job satisfaction, collected by Press Ganey Associates from 88 hospitals across the country in 2002-2003. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to test how organizational culture affects individual employee job satisfaction. Results indicated that some dimensions of organizational culture, specifically, job security and performance recognition, play a role in improving employee job satisfaction.

  17. Neighborhood Predictors of Intimate Partner Violence: A Theory-Informed Analysis Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voith, Laura A; Brondino, Michael J

    2017-09-01

    Due to high prevalence rates and deleterious effects on individuals, families, and communities, intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem. Because IPV occurs in the context of communities and neighborhoods, research must examine the broader environment in addition to individual-level factors to successfully facilitate behavior change. Drawing from the Social Determinants of Health framework and Social Disorganization Theory, neighborhood predictors of IPV were tested using hierarchical linear modeling. Results indicated that concentrated disadvantage and female-to-male partner violence were robust predictors of women's IPV victimization. Implications for theory, practice, and policy, and future research are discussed. © Society for Community Research and Action 2017.

  18. A hierarchical framework for the multiscale modeling of microstructure evolution in heterogeneous materials.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luscher, Darby J.

    2010-04-01

    All materials are heterogeneous at various scales of observation. The influence of material heterogeneity on nonuniform response and microstructure evolution can have profound impact on continuum thermomechanical response at macroscopic “engineering” scales. In many cases, it is necessary to treat this behavior as a multiscale process thus integrating the physical understanding of material behavior at various physical (length and time) scales in order to more accurately predict the thermomechanical response of materials as their microstructure evolves. The intent of the dissertation is to provide a formal framework for multiscale hierarchical homogenization to be used in developing constitutive models.

  19. Locally self-similar phase diagram of the disordered Potts model on the hierarchical lattice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglès d'Auriac, J-Ch; Iglói, Ferenc

    2013-02-01

    We study the critical behavior of the random q-state Potts model in the large-q limit on the diamond hierarchical lattice with an effective dimensionality d(eff)>2. By varying the temperature and the strength of the frustration the system has a phase transition line between the paramagnetic and the ferromagnetic phases which is controlled by four different fixed points. According to our renormalization group study the phase boundary in the vicinity of the multicritical point is self-similar; it is well represented by a logarithmic spiral. We expect an infinite number of reentrances in the thermodynamic limit; consequently one cannot define standard thermodynamic phases in this region.

  20. Evaluation Model of Design for Operation and Architecture of Hierarchical Virtual Simulation for Flight Vehicle Design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Hu; TIAN Yongliang; ZHANG Chaoying; YIN Jiao; SUN Yijie

    2012-01-01

    In order to take requirements for commercial operations or military missions into better consideration in new flight vehicle design,a tri-hierarchical task classification model of "design for operation" is proposed,which takes basic man-object interaction task,complex collaborative operation and large-scale joint operation into account.The corresponding general architecture of evaluation criteria is also depicted.Then a virtual simulation-based approach to implement the evaluations at three hierarchy levels is mainly analyzed with a detailed example,which validates the feasibility and effectiveness of evaluation architecture.Finally,extending the virtual simulation architecture from design to operation training is discussed.

  1. Carbonate fracture stratigraphy: An integrated outcrop and 2D discrete element modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Guy; Finch, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Constraining fracture stratigraphy is important as natural fractures control primary fluid flow in low matrix permeability naturally fractured carbonate hydrocarbon reservoirs. Away from the influence of folds and faults, stratigraphic controls are known to be the major control on fracture networks. The fracture stratigraphy of carbonate nodular-chert rhythmite successions are investigated using a Discrete Element Modelling (DEM) technique and validated against observations from outcrops. Comparisons are made to the naturally fractured carbonates of the Eocene Thebes Formation exposed in the west central Sinai of Egypt, which form reservoir rocks in the nearby East Ras Budran Field. DEM allows mechanical stratigraphy to be defined as the starting conditions from which forward numerical modelling can generate fracture stratigraphy. DEM can incorporate both stratigraphic and lateral heterogeneity, and enable mechanical and fracture stratigraphy to be characterised separately. Stratally bound stratified chert nodules below bedding surfaces generate closely spaced lateral heterogeneity in physical properties at stratigraphic mechanical interfaces. This generates extra complexity in natural fracture networks in addition to that caused by bed thickness and lithological physical properties. A series of representative geologically appropriate synthetic mechanical stratigraphic models were tested. Fracture networks generated in 15 DEM experiments designed to isolate and constrain the effects of nodular chert rhythmites on carbonate fracture stratigraphy are presented. The discrete element media used to model the elastic strengths of rocks contain 72,866 individual elements. Mechanical stratigraphies and the fracture networks generated are placed in a sequence stratigraphic framework. Nodular chert rhythmite successions are shown to be a distinct type of naturally fractured carbonate reservoir. Qualitative stratigraphic rules for predicting the distribution, lengths, spacing

  2. Integrating population dynamics models and distance sampling data: a spatial hierarchical state-space approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeem, Khurram; Moore, Jeffrey E; Zhang, Ying; Chipman, Hugh

    2016-07-01

    Stochastic versions of Gompertz, Ricker, and various other dynamics models play a fundamental role in quantifying strength of density dependence and studying long-term dynamics of wildlife populations. These models are frequently estimated using time series of abundance estimates that are inevitably subject to observation error and missing data. This issue can be addressed with a state-space modeling framework that jointly estimates the observed data model and the underlying stochastic population dynamics (SPD) model. In cases where abundance data are from multiple locations with a smaller spatial resolution (e.g., from mark-recapture and distance sampling studies), models are conventionally fitted to spatially pooled estimates of yearly abundances. Here, we demonstrate that a spatial version of SPD models can be directly estimated from short time series of spatially referenced distance sampling data in a unified hierarchical state-space modeling framework that also allows for spatial variance (covariance) in population growth. We also show that a full range of likelihood based inference, including estimability diagnostics and model selection, is feasible in this class of models using a data cloning algorithm. We further show through simulation experiments that the hierarchical state-space framework introduced herein efficiently captures the underlying dynamical parameters and spatial abundance distribution. We apply our methodology by analyzing a time series of line-transect distance sampling data for fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) off the U.S. west coast. Although there were only seven surveys conducted during the study time frame, 1991-2014, our analysis detected presence of strong density regulation and provided reliable estimates of fin whale densities. In summary, we show that the integrative framework developed herein allows ecologists to better infer key population characteristics such as presence of density regulation and spatial variability in a

  3. Bayesian hierarchical models combining different study types and adjusting for covariate imbalances: a simulation study to assess model performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Elizabeth McCarron

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to combine evidence from different types of study designs. However, when combining evidence from randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, imbalances in patient characteristics between study arms may bias the results. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of a proposed Bayesian approach to adjust for imbalances in patient level covariates when combining evidence from both types of study designs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Simulation techniques, in which the truth is known, were used to generate sets of data for randomised and non-randomised studies. Covariate imbalances between study arms were introduced in the non-randomised studies. The performance of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for imbalances was assessed in terms of bias. The data were also modelled using three other Bayesian approaches for synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies. The simulations considered six scenarios aimed at assessing the sensitivity of the results to changes in the impact of the imbalances and the relative number and size of studies of each type. For all six scenarios considered, the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences within studies gave results that were unbiased and closest to the true value compared to the other models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Where informed health care decision making requires the synthesis of evidence from randomised and non-randomised study designs, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian method adjusted for differences in patient characteristics between study arms may facilitate the optimal use of all available evidence leading to unbiased results compared to unadjusted analyses.

  4. Friction and adhesion of hierarchical carbon nanotube structures for biomimetic dry adhesives: multiscale modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shihao; Jiang, Haodan; Xia, Zhenhai; Gao, Xiaosheng

    2010-09-01

    With unique hierarchical fibrillar structures on their feet, gecko lizards can walk on vertical walls or even ceilings. Recent experiments have shown that strong binding along the shear direction and easy lifting in the normal direction can be achieved by forming unidirectional carbon nanotube array with laterally distributed tips similar to gecko's feet. In this study, a multiscale modeling approach was developed to analyze friction and adhesion behaviors of this hierarchical fibrillar system. Vertically aligned carbon nanotube array with laterally distributed segments at the end was simulated by coarse grained molecular dynamics. The effects of the laterally distributed segments on friction and adhesion strengths were analyzed, and further adopted as cohesive laws used in finite element analysis at device scale. The results show that the laterally distributed segments play an essential role in achieving high force anisotropy between normal and shear directions in the adhesives. Finite element analysis reveals a new friction-enhanced adhesion mechanism of the carbon nanotube array, which also exists in gecko adhesive system. The multiscale modeling provides an approach to bridge the microlevel structures of the carbon nanotube array with its macrolevel adhesive behaviors, and the predictions from this modeling give an insight into the mechanisms of gecko-mimicking dry adhesives.

  5. Quantifying inter- and intra-population niche variability using hierarchical bayesian stable isotope mixing models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X; Ward, Eric J; Moore, Jonathan W; Darimont, Chris T

    2009-07-09

    Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population.

  6. Comparing hierarchical models for spatio-temporally misaligned data using the deviance information criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, L; Carlin, B P

    Bayes and empirical Bayes methods have proven effective in smoothing crude maps of disease risk, eliminating the instability of estimates in low-population areas while maintaining overall geographic trends and patterns. Recent work extends these methods to the analysis of areal data which are spatially misaligned, that is, involving variables (typically counts or rates) which are aggregated over differing sets of regional boundaries. The addition of a temporal aspect complicates matters further, since now the misalignment can arise either within a given time point, or across time points (as when the regional boundaries themselves evolve over time). Hierarchical Bayesian methods (implemented via modern Markov chain Monte Carlo computing methods) enable the fitting of such models, but a formal comparison of their fit is hampered by their large size and often improper prior specifications. In this paper, we accomplish this comparison using the deviance information criterion (DIC), a recently proposed generalization of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) designed for complex hierarchical model settings like ours. We investigate the use of the delta method for obtaining an approximate variance estimate for DIC, in order to attach significance to apparent differences between models. We illustrate our approach using a spatially misaligned data set relating a measure of traffic density to paediatric asthma hospitalizations in San Diego County, California.

  7. Evolutionary-Hierarchical Bases of the Formation of Cluster Model of Innovation Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuliya Vladimirovna Dubrovskaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The functioning of a modern economic system is based on the interaction of objects of different hierarchical levels. Thus, the problem of the study of innovation processes taking into account the mutual influence of the activities of these economic actors becomes important. The paper dwells evolutionary basis for the formation of models of innovation development on the basis of micro and macroeconomic analysis. Most of the concepts recognized that despite a big number of diverse models, the coordination of the relations between economic agents is of crucial importance for the successful innovation development. According to the results of the evolutionary-hierarchical analysis, the authors reveal key phases of the development of forms of business cooperation, science and government in the domestic economy. It has become the starting point of the conception of the characteristics of the interaction in the cluster models of innovation development of the economy. Considerable expectancies on improvement of the national innovative system are connected with the development of cluster and network structures. The main objective of government authorities is the formation of mechanisms and institutions that will foster cooperation between members of the clusters. The article explains that the clusters cannot become the factors in the growth of the national economy, not being an effective tool for interaction between the actors of the regional innovative systems.

  8. Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Grossman, Gary D.

    2010-01-01

    Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

  9. Characterization of fracture processes by continuum and discrete modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaliske, M.; Dal, H.; Fleischhauer, R.; Jenkel, C.; Netzker, C.

    2012-09-01

    A large number of methods to describe fracture mechanical features of structures on basis of computational algorithms have been developed in the past due to the importance of the topic. In this paper, current and promising numerical approaches for the characterization of fracture processes are presented. A fracture phenomenon can either be depicted by a continuum formulation or a discrete notch. Thus, starting point of the description is a micromechanically motivated formulation for the development of a local failure situation. A current, generalized method without any restriction to material modelling and loading situation in order to describe an existing crack in a structure is available through the material force approach. One possible strategy to simulate arbitrary crack growth is based on an adaptive implementation of cohesive elements in combination with the standard discretization of the body. In this case, crack growth criteria and the determination of the crack propagation direction in combination with the modification of the finite element mesh are required. The nonlinear structural behaviour of a fibre reinforced composite material is based on the heterogeneous microstructure. A two-scale simulation is therefore an appropriate and effective way to take into account the scale differences of macroscopic structures with microscopic elements. In addition, fracture mechanical structural properties are far from being sharp and deterministic. Moreover, a wide range of uncertainties influence the ultimate load bearing behaviour. Therefore, it is evident that the deterministic modelling has to be expanded by a characterization of the uncertainty in order to achieve a reliable and realistic simulation result. The employed methods are illustrated by numerical examples.

  10. A hierarchical probabilistic model for rapid object categorization in natural scenes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofu He

    Full Text Available Humans can categorize objects in complex natural scenes within 100-150 ms. This amazing ability of rapid categorization has motivated many computational models. Most of these models require extensive training to obtain a decision boundary in a very high dimensional (e.g., ∼6,000 in a leading model feature space and often categorize objects in natural scenes by categorizing the context that co-occurs with objects when objects do not occupy large portions of the scenes. It is thus unclear how humans achieve rapid scene categorization.To address this issue, we developed a hierarchical probabilistic model for rapid object categorization in natural scenes. In this model, a natural object category is represented by a coarse hierarchical probability distribution (PD, which includes PDs of object geometry and spatial configuration of object parts. Object parts are encoded by PDs of a set of natural object structures, each of which is a concatenation of local object features. Rapid categorization is performed as statistical inference. Since the model uses a very small number (∼100 of structures for even complex object categories such as animals and cars, it requires little training and is robust in the presence of large variations within object categories and in their occurrences in natural scenes. Remarkably, we found that the model categorized animals in natural scenes and cars in street scenes with a near human-level performance. We also found that the model located animals and cars in natural scenes, thus overcoming a flaw in many other models which is to categorize objects in natural context by categorizing contextual features. These results suggest that coarse PDs of object categories based on natural object structures and statistical operations on these PDs may underlie the human ability to rapidly categorize scenes.

  11. Numerical modeling of concrete hydraulic fracturing with extended finite element method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN QingWen; DONG YuWen; YU TianTang

    2009-01-01

    The extended finite element method (XFEM) is a new numerical method for modeling discontinuity.Research about numerical modeling for concrete hydraulic fracturing by XFEM is explored. By building the virtual work principle of the fracture problem considering water pressure on the crack surface, the governing equations of XFEM for hydraulic fracture modeling are derived. Implementation of the XFEM for hydraulic fracturing is presented. Finally, the method is verified by two examples and the advan-tages of the XFEM for hydraulic fracturing analysis are displayed.

  12. Numerical modeling of concrete hydraulic fracturing with extended finite element method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The extended finite element method (XFEM) is a new numerical method for modeling discontinuity. Research about numerical modeling for concrete hydraulic fracturing by XFEM is explored. By building the virtual work principle of the fracture problem considering water pressure on the crack surface, the governing equations of XFEM for hydraulic fracture modeling are derived. Implementation of the XFEM for hydraulic fracturing is presented. Finally, the method is verified by two examples and the advan- tages of the XFEM for hydraulic fracturing analysis are displayed.

  13. Impacts of forest fragmentation on species richness: a hierarchical approach to community modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; DeWan, Amielle; Royle, J. Andrew

    2009-01-01

    1. Species richness is often used as a tool for prioritizing conservation action. One method for predicting richness and other summaries of community structure is to develop species-specific models of occurrence probability based on habitat or landscape characteristics. However, this approach can be challenging for rare or elusive species for which survey data are often sparse. 2. Recent developments have allowed for improved inference about community structure based on species-specific models of occurrence probability, integrated within a hierarchical modelling framework. This framework offers advantages to inference about species richness over typical approaches by accounting for both species-level effects and the aggregated effects of landscape composition on a community as a whole, thus leading to increased precision in estimates of species richness by improving occupancy estimates for all species, including those that were observed infrequently. 3. We developed a hierarchical model to assess the community response of breeding birds in the Hudson River Valley, New York, to habitat fragmentation and analysed the model using a Bayesian approach. 4. The model was designed to estimate species-specific occurrence and the effects of fragment area and edge (as measured through the perimeter and the perimeter/area ratio, P/A), while accounting for imperfect detection of species. 5. We used the fitted model to make predictions of species richness within forest fragments of variable morphology. The model revealed that species richness of the observed bird community was maximized in small forest fragments with a high P/A. However, the number of forest interior species, a subset of the community with high conservation value, was maximized in large fragments with low P/A. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the responses of both individual, and groups of species, to environmental heterogeneity while illustrating the utility

  14. Evaluation of anthelmintic resistance in livestock parasites using observational data and hierarchical models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Martin Krarup; Vidyashankar, Anand N.; Hanlon, Bret

    contribute to cause this high variability and these must be taken into account to accurately identify a reduction in anthelmintic efficacy. To address this problem, we developed a hierarchical statistical model for analysis of FECRT data from multiple farms. The model includes animal effect and farm clusters...... to handle FECRT data obtained from other livestock species, drug types, and parasite species........93 %) farms as pyrantel resistant, 5 (7.81 %) as suspect resistant and the remainder of farms (81.25%) as not resistant. In comparison with unadjusted LCLs, the model provided a more stable classification of farms with a 1.1 % 12 false discovery rate. The statistical model presented here can be adapted...

  15. A spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical Bayesian (SSD-HB) model for estimating soybean yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazama, Yoriko; Kujirai, Toshihiro

    2014-10-01

    A method called a "spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical-Bayesian (SSD-HB) model," which can deal with many parameters (such as spectral and weather information all together) by reducing the occurrence of multicollinearity, is proposed. Experiments conducted on soybean yields in Brazil fields with a RapidEye satellite image indicate that the proposed SSD-HB model can predict soybean yield with a higher degree of accuracy than other estimation methods commonly used in remote-sensing applications. In the case of the SSD-HB model, the mean absolute error between estimated yield of the target area and actual yield is 0.28 t/ha, compared to 0.34 t/ha when conventional PLS regression was applied, showing the potential effectiveness of the proposed model.

  16. Merging information from multi-model flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vine, Nataliya

    2016-04-01

    Multi-model ensembles are becoming widely accepted for flood frequency change analysis. The use of multiple models results in large uncertainty around estimates of flood magnitudes, due to both uncertainty in model selection and natural variability of river flow. The challenge is therefore to extract the most meaningful signal from the multi-model predictions, accounting for both model quality and uncertainties in individual model estimates. The study demonstrates the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach facilitates explicit treatment of shared multi-model discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, by treating the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The advantages of the approach are: 1) to insure an adequate 'baseline' conditions with which to compare future changes; 2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; 3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; 4) to adjust multi-model consistency criteria when model biases are large; and 5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

  17. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) of longitudinal brain structural and cognitive changes in alcohol-dependent individuals during sobriety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yeh, P.H.; Gazdzinski, S.; Durazzo, T.C.;

    2007-01-01

    and unique hierarchical linear models allow assessments of the complex relationships among outcome measures of longitudinal data sets. These HLM applications suggest that chronic cigarette smoking modulates the temporal dynamics of brain structural and cognitive changes in alcoholics during prolonged......Background: Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) can reveal complex relationships between longitudinal outcome measures and their covariates under proper consideration of potentially unequal error variances. We demonstrate the application of FILM to the study of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI...... time points. Using HLM, we modeled volumetric and cognitive outcome measures as a function of cigarette and alcohol use variables. Results: Different hierarchical linear models with unique model structures are presented and discussed. The results show that smaller brain volumes at baseline predict...

  18. Fracture surfaces of heterogeneous materials: A 2D solvable model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzav, E.; Adda-Bedia, M.; Derrida, B.

    2007-05-01

    Using an elastostatic description of crack growth based on the Griffith criterion and the principle of local symmetry, we present a stochastic model describing the propagation of a crack tip in a 2D heterogeneous brittle material. The model ensures the stability of straight cracks and allows for the study of the roughening of fracture surfaces. When neglecting the effect of the nonsingular stress, the problem becomes exactly solvable and yields analytic predictions for the power spectrum of the paths. This result suggests an alternative to the conventional power law analysis often used in the analysis of experimental data.

  19. Computational Modelling of Fracture Propagation in Rocks Using a Coupled Elastic-Plasticity-Damage Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isa Kolo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A coupled elastic-plasticity-damage constitutive model, AK Model, is applied to predict fracture propagation in rocks. The quasi-brittle material model captures anisotropic effects and the distinct behavior of rocks in tension and compression. Calibration of the constitutive model is realized using experimental data for Carrara marble. Through the Weibull distribution function, heterogeneity effect is captured by spatially varying the elastic properties of the rock. Favorable comparison between model predictions and experiments for single-flawed specimens reveal that the AK Model is reliable and accurate for modelling fracture propagation in rocks.

  20. Hierarchical neural network model of the visual system determining figure/ground relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Masayuki

    2017-07-01

    One of the most important functions of the visual perception in the brain is figure/ground interpretation from input images. Figural region in 2D image corresponding to object in 3D space are distinguished from background region extended behind the object. Previously the author proposed a neural network model of figure/ground separation constructed on the standpoint that local geometric features such as curvatures and outer angles at corners are extracted and propagated along input contour in a single layer network (Kikuchi & Akashi, 2001). However, such a processing principle has the defect that signal propagation requires manyiterations despite the fact that actual visual system determines figure/ground relation within the short period (Zhou et al., 2000). In order to attain speed-up for determining figure/ground, this study incorporates hierarchical architecture into the previous model. This study confirmed the effect of the hierarchization as for the computation time by simulation. As the number of layers increased, the required computation time reduced. However, such speed-up effect was saturatedas the layers increased to some extent. This study attempted to explain this saturation effect by the notion of average distance between vertices in the area of complex network, and succeeded to mimic the saturation effect by computer simulation.