HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiecki, Thomas V; Sofer, Imri; Frank, Michael J

2013-01-01

The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision-making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on response times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of response time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model), which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject/condition than non-hierarchical methods, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g., fMRI) influence decision-making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of the drift diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the χ(2)-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs/

HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas V Wiecki

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on reaction times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of reaction time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model, which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject / condition than non-hierarchical method, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g. fMRI influence decision making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of drift-diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the chi-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs

Using the Surface Reflectance MODIS Terra Product to Estimate Turbidity in Tampa Bay, Florida

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Douglas L. Rickman

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Turbidity is a commonly-used index of the factors that determine light penetration in the water column. Consistent estimation of turbidity is crucial to design environmental and restoration management plans, to predict fate of possible pollutants, and to estimate sedimentary fluxes into the ocean. Traditional methods monitoring fixed geographical locations at fixed intervals may not be representative of the mean water turbidity in estuaries between intervals, and can be expensive and time consuming. Although remote sensing offers a good solution to this limitation, it is still not widely used due in part to required complex processing of imagery. There are satellite-derived products, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Terra surface reflectance daily product (MOD09GQ Band 1 (620–670 nm which are now routinely available at 250 m spatial resolution and corrected for atmospheric effect. This study shows this product to be useful to estimate turbidity in Tampa Bay, Florida, after rainfall events (R2 = 0.76, n = 34. Within Tampa Bay, Hillsborough Bay (HB and Old Tampa Bay (OTB presented higher turbidity compared to Middle Tampa Bay (MTB and Lower Tampa Bay (LTB.

Multi-subject hierarchical inverse covariance modelling improves estimation of functional brain networks.

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Colclough, Giles L; Woolrich, Mark W; Harrison, Samuel J; Rojas López, Pedro A; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A; Smith, Stephen M

2018-05-07

A Bayesian model for sparse, hierarchical inverse covariance estimation is presented, and applied to multi-subject functional connectivity estimation in the human brain. It enables simultaneous inference of the strength of connectivity between brain regions at both subject and population level, and is applicable to fmri, meg and eeg data. Two versions of the model can encourage sparse connectivity, either using continuous priors to suppress irrelevant connections, or using an explicit description of the network structure to estimate the connection probability between each pair of regions. A large evaluation of this model, and thirteen methods that represent the state of the art of inverse covariance modelling, is conducted using both simulated and resting-state functional imaging datasets. Our novel Bayesian approach has similar performance to the best extant alternative, Ng et al.'s Sparse Group Gaussian Graphical Model algorithm, which also is based on a hierarchical structure. Using data from the Human Connectome Project, we show that these hierarchical models are able to reduce the measurement error in meg beta-band functional networks by 10%, producing concomitant increases in estimates of the genetic influence on functional connectivity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

HIERARCHICAL ADAPTIVE ROOD PATTERN SEARCH FOR MOTION ESTIMATION AT VIDEO SEQUENCE ANALYSIS

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V. T. Nguyen

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Subject of Research.The paper deals with the motion estimation algorithms for the analysis of video sequences in compression standards MPEG-4 Visual and H.264. Anew algorithm has been offered based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of existing algorithms. Method. Thealgorithm is called hierarchical adaptive rood pattern search (Hierarchical ARPS, HARPS. This new algorithm includes the classic adaptive rood pattern search ARPS and hierarchical search MP (Hierarchical search or Mean pyramid. All motion estimation algorithms have been implemented using MATLAB package and tested with several video sequences. Main Results. The criteria for evaluating the algorithms were: speed, peak signal to noise ratio, mean square error and mean absolute deviation. The proposed method showed a much better performance at a comparable error and deviation. The peak signal to noise ratio in different video sequences shows better and worse results than characteristics of known algorithms so it requires further investigation. Practical Relevance. Application of this algorithm in MPEG-4 and H.264 codecs instead of the standard can significantly reduce compression time. This feature enables to recommend it in telecommunication systems for multimedia data storing, transmission and processing.

Multilevel eEmpirical Bayes modeling for improved estimation of toxicant formulations tosuppress parasitic sea lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

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Hatfield, Laura A.; Gutreuter, Steve; Boogaard, Michael A.; Carlin, Bradley P.

2011-01-01

Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data.

Hierarchical feature selection for erythema severity estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li; Shi, Chenbo; Shu, Chang

2014-10-01

At present PASI system of scoring is used for evaluating erythema severity, which can help doctors to diagnose psoriasis [1-3]. The system relies on the subjective judge of doctors, where the accuracy and stability cannot be guaranteed [4]. This paper proposes a stable and precise algorithm for erythema severity estimation. Our contributions are twofold. On one hand, in order to extract the multi-scale redness of erythema, we design the hierarchical feature. Different from traditional methods, we not only utilize the color statistical features, but also divide the detect window into small window and extract hierarchical features. Further, a feature re-ranking step is introduced, which can guarantee that extracted features are irrelevant to each other. On the other hand, an adaptive boosting classifier is applied for further feature selection. During the step of training, the classifier will seek out the most valuable feature for evaluating erythema severity, due to its strong learning ability. Experimental results demonstrate the high precision and robustness of our algorithm. The accuracy is 80.1% on the dataset which comprise 116 patients' images with various kinds of erythema. Now our system has been applied for erythema medical efficacy evaluation in Union Hosp, China.

On Structure, Family and Parameter Estimation of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Górecki, J.; Hofert, M.; Holeňa, Martin

2017-01-01

Roč. 87, č. 17 (2017), s. 3261-3324 ISSN 0094-9655 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA17-01251S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : copula estimation * goodness-of-fit * Hierarchical Archimedean copula * structure determination Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.757, year: 2016

Performance Estimation for Hardware/Software codesign using Hierarchical Colored Petri Nets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grode, Jesper Nicolai Riis; Madsen, Jan; Jerraya, Ahmed-Amine

1998-01-01

This paper presents an approach for abstract modeling of the functional behavior of hardware architectures using Hierarchical Colored Petri Nets (HCPNs). Using HCPNs as architectural models has several advantages such as higher estimation accuracy, higher flexibility, and the need for only one...... estimation tool. This makes the approach very useful for designing component models used for performance estimation in Hardware/Software Codesign frameworks such as the LYCOS system. The paper presents the methodology and rules for designing component models using HCPNs. Two examples of architectural models...

Multilevel Empirical Bayes Modeling for Improved Estimation of Toxicant Formulations to Suppress Parasitic Sea Lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, L.A.; Gutreuter, S.; Boogaard, M.A.; Carlin, B.P.

2011-01-01

Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data. ?? 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Avoiding Boundary Estimates in Hierarchical Linear Models through Weakly Informative Priors

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Yeojin; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Gelman, Andrew; Dorie, Vincent; Liu, Jinchen

2012-01-01

Hierarchical or multilevel linear models are widely used for longitudinal or cross-sectional data on students nested in classes and schools, and are particularly important for estimating treatment effects in cluster-randomized trials, multi-site trials, and meta-analyses. The models can allow for variation in treatment effects, as well as…

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation method based upon hierarchical a posteriori error estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Weizhang; Kamenski, Lennard; Lang, Jens

2010-03-01

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation strategy for finite element solution of elliptic differential equations is presented. It generates anisotropic adaptive meshes as quasi-uniform ones in some metric space, with the metric tensor being computed based on hierarchical a posteriori error estimates. A global hierarchical error estimate is employed in this study to obtain reliable directional information of the solution. Instead of solving the global error problem exactly, which is costly in general, we solve it iteratively using the symmetric Gauß-Seidel method. Numerical results show that a few GS iterations are sufficient for obtaining a reasonably good approximation to the error for use in anisotropic mesh adaptation. The new method is compared with several strategies using local error estimators or recovered Hessians. Numerical results are presented for a selection of test examples and a mathematical model for heat conduction in a thermal battery with large orthotropic jumps in the material coefficients.

Hierarchical Rhetorical Sentence Categorization for Scientific Papers

Science.gov (United States)

Rachman, G. H.; Khodra, M. L.; Widyantoro, D. H.

2018-03-01

Important information in scientific papers can be composed of rhetorical sentences that is structured from certain categories. To get this information, text categorization should be conducted. Actually, some works in this task have been completed by employing word frequency, semantic similarity words, hierarchical classification, and the others. Therefore, this paper aims to present the rhetorical sentence categorization from scientific paper by employing TF-IDF and Word2Vec to capture word frequency and semantic similarity words and employing hierarchical classification. Every experiment is tested in two classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes and SVM Linear. This paper shows that hierarchical classifier is better than flat classifier employing either TF-IDF or Word2Vec, although it increases only almost 2% from 27.82% when using flat classifier until 29.61% when using hierarchical classifier. It shows also different learning model for child-category can be built by hierarchical classifier.

A Hierarchical Approach to Persistent Scatterer Network Construction and Deformation Time Series Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Zhang

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a hierarchical approach to network construction and time series estimation in persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI for deformation analysis using the time series of high-resolution satellite SAR images. To balance between computational efficiency and solution accuracy, a dividing and conquering algorithm (i.e., two levels of PS networking and solution is proposed for extracting deformation rates of a study area. The algorithm has been tested using 40 high-resolution TerraSAR-X images collected between 2009 and 2010 over Tianjin in China for subsidence analysis, and validated by using the ground-based leveling measurements. The experimental results indicate that the hierarchical approach can remarkably reduce computing time and memory requirements, and the subsidence measurements derived from the hierarchical solution are in good agreement with the leveling data.

Maximum Likelihood and Bayes Estimation in Randomly Censored Geometric Distribution

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Hare Krishna

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this article, we study the geometric distribution under randomly censored data. Maximum likelihood estimators and confidence intervals based on Fisher information matrix are derived for the unknown parameters with randomly censored data. Bayes estimators are also developed using beta priors under generalized entropy and LINEX loss functions. Also, Bayesian credible and highest posterior density (HPD credible intervals are obtained for the parameters. Expected time on test and reliability characteristics are also analyzed in this article. To compare various estimates developed in the article, a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out. Finally, for illustration purpose, a randomly censored real data set is discussed.

Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

Science.gov (United States)

Sotto, Lara Patricia A.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

2015-06-01

A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used to estimate the contribution of the population to nitrogen and phosphorus emissions which was then used in a water transport model to estimate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to Manila Bay. Seven scenarios for 2050 were tested, with varying degrees and amounts for extent of sewage treatment, and population growth rates were also included. In scenario 1, the sewage connection and treatment remains the same as 2010; in scenario 2, sewage connection is improved but the treatment is the same; in scenario 3, the sewage connection as well as treatment is improved (70% tertiary); and in scenario 4, a more realistic situation of 70% primary treatment achieved with 100% connection to pipes is tested. Scenarios 5, 6, and 7 have the same parameters as 1, 2, and 3 respectively, but with the population growth rate per province reduced to half of what was used in 1, 2, and 3. In all scenarios, a significant increase in N and P loads was observed (varying from 27% to 469% relative to 2010 values). This was found even in scenario 3 where 70% of the waste water undergoes tertiary treatment which removes 80% N and 90% P. However, the lowest increase in N and P load into the bay was achieved in scenarios 5 to 7 where population growth rate is reduced to half of 2010 values. The results suggest that aside from improving sewage treatment, the continued increase of the human population in Manila at current growth rates will be an important determinant of N and P load into Manila Bay.

Merging expert and empirical data for rare event frequency estimation: Pool homogenisation for empirical Bayes models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quigley, John; Hardman, Gavin; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

2011-01-01

Empirical Bayes provides one approach to estimating the frequency of rare events as a weighted average of the frequencies of an event and a pool of events. The pool will draw upon, for example, events with similar precursors. The higher the degree of homogeneity of the pool, then the Empirical Bayes estimator will be more accurate. We propose and evaluate a new method using homogenisation factors under the assumption that events are generated from a Homogeneous Poisson Process. The homogenisation factors are scaling constants, which can be elicited through structured expert judgement and used to align the frequencies of different events, hence homogenising the pool. The estimation error relative to the homogeneity of the pool is examined theoretically indicating that reduced error is associated with larger pool homogeneity. The effects of misspecified expert assessments of the homogenisation factors are examined theoretically and through simulation experiments. Our results show that the proposed Empirical Bayes method using homogenisation factors is robust under different degrees of misspecification.

Hierarchical parameter estimation of DFIG and drive train system in a wind turbine generator

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xueping PAN; Ping JU; Feng WU; Yuqing JIN

2017-01-01

A new hierarchical parameter estimation method for doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) and drive train system in a wind turbine generator (WTG) is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the parameters of the DFIG and the drive train are estimated locally under different types of disturbances.Secondly,a coordination estimation method is further applied to identify the parameters of the DFIG and the drive train simultaneously with the purpose of attaining the global optimal estimation results.The main benefit of the proposed scheme is the improved estimation accuracy.Estimation results confirm the applicability of the proposed estimation technique.

Uncertainty in perception and the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter

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Christoph Daniel Mathys

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In its full sense, perception rests on an agent’s model of how its sensory input comes about and the inferences it draws based on this model. These inferences are necessarily uncertain. Here, we illustrate how the hierarchical Gaussian filter (HGF offers a principled and generic way to deal with the several forms that uncertainty in perception takes. The HGF is a recent derivation of one-step update equations from Bayesian principles that rests on a hierarchical generative model of the environment and its (instability. It is computationally highly efficient, allows for online estimates of hidden states, and has found numerous applications to experimental data from human subjects. In this paper, we generalize previous descriptions of the HGF and its account of perceptual uncertainty. First, we explicitly formulate the extension of the HGF’s hierarchy to any number of levels; second, we discuss how various forms of uncertainty are accommodated by the minimization of variational free energy as encoded in the update equations; third, we combine the HGF with decision models and demonstrate the inversion of this combination; finally, we report a simulation study that compared four optimization methods for inverting the HGF/decision model combination at different noise levels. These four methods (Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm, Gaussian process-based global optimization, variational Bayes and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling all performed well even under considerable noise, with variational Bayes offering the best combination of efficiency and informativeness of inference. Our results demonstrate that the HGF provides a principled, flexible, and efficient - but at the same time intuitive - framework for the resolution of perceptual uncertainty in behaving agents.

The Dynamics, Ecological Variability and Estimated Carbon Stocks of Mangroves in Mahajamba Bay, Madagascar

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Trevor G. Jones

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Mangroves are found throughout the tropics, providing critical ecosystem goods and services to coastal communities and supporting rich biodiversity. Globally, mangroves are being rapidly degraded and deforested at rates exceeding loss in many tropical inland forests. Madagascar contains around 2% of the global distribution, >20% of which has been deforested since 1990, primarily from over-harvest for forest products and conversion for agriculture and aquaculture. While historically not prominent, mangrove loss in Madagascar’s Mahajamba Bay is increasing. Here, we focus on Mahajamba Bay, presenting long-term dynamics calculated using United States Geological Survey (USGS national-level mangrove maps contextualized with socio-economic research and ground observations, and the results of contemporary (circa 2011 mapping of dominant mangrove types. The analysis of the USGS data indicated 1050 hectares (3.8% lost from 2000 to 2010, which socio-economic research suggests is increasingly driven by commercial timber extraction. Contemporary mapping results permitted stratified sampling based on spectrally distinct and ecologically meaningful mangrove types, allowing for the first-ever vegetation carbon stock estimates for Mahajamba Bay. The overall mean carbon stock across all mangrove classes was estimated to be 100.97 ± 10.49 Mg C ha−1. High stature closed-canopy mangroves had the highest average carbon stock estimate (i.e., 166.82 ± 15.28 Mg C ha−1. These estimates are comparable to other published values in Madagascar and elsewhere in the Western Indian Ocean and demonstrate the ecological variability of Mahajamba Bay’s mangroves and their value towards climate change mitigation.

Estimates of nitrate loads and yields from groundwater to streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed based on land use and geology

Science.gov (United States)

Terziotti, Silvia; Capel, Paul D.; Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Hopple, Jessica A.; Kronholm, Scott C.

2018-03-07

The water quality of the Chesapeake Bay may be adversely affected by dissolved nitrate carried in groundwater discharge to streams. To estimate the concentrations, loads, and yields of nitrate from groundwater to streams for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, a regression model was developed based on measured nitrate concentrations from 156 small streams with watersheds less than 500 square miles (mi2 ) at baseflow. The regression model has three predictive variables: geologic unit, percent developed land, and percent agricultural land. Comparisons of estimated and actual values within geologic units were closely matched. The coefficient of determination (R2 ) for the model was 0.6906. The model was used to calculate baseflow nitrate concentrations at over 83,000 National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2 catchments and aggregated to 1,966 total 12-digit hydrologic units in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The modeled output geospatial data layers provided estimated annual loads and yields of nitrate from groundwater into streams. The spatial distribution of annual nitrate yields from groundwater estimated by this method was compared to the total watershed yields of all sources estimated from a Chesapeake Bay SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) water-quality model. The comparison showed similar spatial patterns. The regression model for groundwater contribution had similar but lower yields, suggesting that groundwater is an important source of nitrogen for streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

Bayes allocation of the sample for estimation of the mean when each stratum has a Poisson distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, T.

1983-01-01

Consider a stratified population with L strata, so that a Poisson random variable is associated with each stratum. The parameter associated with the hth stratum is theta/sub h/, h = 1, 2, ..., L. Let ω/sub h/ be the known proportion of the population in the hth stratum, h = 1, 2, ..., L. The authors want to estimate the parameter theta = summation from h = 1 to L ω/sub h/theta/sub h/. We assume that prior information is available on theta/sub h/ and that it can be expressed in terms of a gamma distribution with parameters α/sub h/ and β/sub h/, h = 1, 2, ..., L. We also assume that the prior distributions are independent. Using squared error loss function, a Bayes allocation of total sample size with a cost constraint is given. The Bayes estimate using the Bayes allocation is shown to have an adjusted mean square error which is strictly less than the adjusted mean square error of the classical estimate using the classical allocation

Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunson, David B

2009-04-01

In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

Maximum a posteriori probability estimates in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helin, T; Burger, M

2015-01-01

A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic and difficult to analyse. Current inverse problem literature often approaches the problem by considering suitable point estimators for the task. Typically the choice is made between the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the conditional mean (CM) estimate. The benefits of either choice are not well-understood from the perspective of infinite-dimensional theory. Most importantly, there exists no general scheme regarding how to connect the topological description of a MAP estimate to a variational problem. The recent results by Dashti and others (Dashti et al 2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) resolve this issue for nonlinear inverse problems in Gaussian framework. In this work we improve the current understanding by introducing a novel concept called the weak MAP (wMAP) estimate. We show that any MAP estimate in the sense of Dashti et al (2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) is a wMAP estimate and, moreover, how the wMAP estimate connects to a variational formulation in general infinite-dimensional non-Gaussian problems. The variational formulation enables to study many properties of the infinite-dimensional MAP estimate that were earlier impossible to study. In a recent work by the authors (Burger and Lucka 2014 Maximum a posteriori estimates in linear inverse problems with logconcave priors are proper bayes estimators preprint) the MAP estimator was studied in the context of the Bayes cost method. Using Bregman distances, proper convex Bayes cost functions were introduced for which the MAP estimator is the Bayes estimator. Here, we generalize these results to the infinite-dimensional setting. Moreover, we discuss the implications of our results for some examples of prior models such as the Besov prior and hierarchical prior. (paper)

Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

2015-01-01

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

The contingent behavior of charter fishing participants on the Chesapeake Bay: Welfare estimates associated with water quality improvements

Science.gov (United States)

Poor, P.J.; Breece, M.

2006-01-01

Water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has deteriorated over recent years. Historically, fishing has contributed to the region's local economy in terms of commercial and recreational harvests. A contingent behavior model is used to estimate welfare measures for charter fishing participants with regard to a hypothetical improvement in water quality. Using a truncated Poisson count model corrected for endogenous stratification, it was found that charter fishers not only contribute to the local market economy, but they also place positive non-market value on preserving the Bay's water quality. Using two estimates for travels costs it is estimated that the individual consumer surplus is $200 and $117 per trip, and the average individual consumer surplus values for an improvement in water quality is $75 and $44 for two models estimated. ?? 2006 University of Newcastle upon Tyne.

Sedimentation rate estimates in Sorsogon Bay, Philippines using 210Pb method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madrid, Jordan F.; Sta. Maria, Efren J.; Olivares, Ryan U.; Aniago, Ryan Joseph; Asa Anie Day DC; Dayaon, Jennyvi P.; Bulos, Adelina DM; Sombrito, Elvira Z.

2011-01-01

Sorsogon Bay has experienced a long history of recurring harmful algal blooms over the past few years. In an attempt to establish a chronology of events in the sediment layer, lead-210 ( 210 Pb) dating method has been utilized in estimating sedimentation rates from three selected areas along the bay. Based on the unsupported 210 Pb data and by applying the Constant Initial Concentration (CIC) model, the calculated sedimentation rates were 0.8, 1.3 and 1.8 cm yr 1 for sediment cores collected near the coastal areas of Castilla (SO-01), Sorsogon City (SO-07) and Cadacan River (SO-03), respectively. High sedimentation rates were measured in sediment cores believed to be affected from frequent volcanic ash releases and from areas near human settlement combined with intensive farming and agricultural activities. The collected sediments exhibited non-uniform down core values of dry bulk density and moisture content. This variation in measurements may indicate the general quality and composition of the sediment samples, i.e., amount of organic matter and grain size. The calculated sedimentation rates obtained provided an overview of the sedimentation processes and reflect the land use pattern around the bay which may help in understanding the history and distribution of materials and nutrient input relative to the occurrence of harmful algal bloom in the sediment columns. (author)

New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

2011-01-01

Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

A hierarchical model for estimating density in camera-trap studies

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Royle, J. Andrew; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K.Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2009-01-01

Estimating animal density using capture–recapture data from arrays of detection devices such as camera traps has been problematic due to the movement of individuals and heterogeneity in capture probability among them induced by differential exposure to trapping.We develop a spatial capture–recapture model for estimating density from camera-trapping data which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to and detection by traps.We adopt a Bayesian approach to analysis of the hierarchical model using the technique of data augmentation.The model is applied to photographic capture–recapture data on tigers Panthera tigris in Nagarahole reserve, India. Using this model, we estimate the density of tigers to be 14·3 animals per 100 km2 during 2004.Synthesis and applications. Our modelling framework largely overcomes several weaknesses in conventional approaches to the estimation of animal density from trap arrays. It effectively deals with key problems such as individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, movement of traps, presence of potential ‘holes’ in the array and ad hoc estimation of sample area. The formulation, thus, greatly enhances flexibility in the conduct of field surveys as well as in the analysis of data, from studies that may involve physical, photographic or DNA-based ‘captures’ of individual animals.

An Example of an Improvable Rao-Blackwell Improvement, Inefficient Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Unbiased Generalized Bayes Estimator.

Science.gov (United States)

Galili, Tal; Meilijson, Isaac

2016-01-02

The Rao-Blackwell theorem offers a procedure for converting a crude unbiased estimator of a parameter θ into a "better" one, in fact unique and optimal if the improvement is based on a minimal sufficient statistic that is complete. In contrast, behind every minimal sufficient statistic that is not complete, there is an improvable Rao-Blackwell improvement. This is illustrated via a simple example based on the uniform distribution, in which a rather natural Rao-Blackwell improvement is uniformly improvable. Furthermore, in this example the maximum likelihood estimator is inefficient, and an unbiased generalized Bayes estimator performs exceptionally well. Counterexamples of this sort can be useful didactic tools for explaining the true nature of a methodology and possible consequences when some of the assumptions are violated. [Received December 2014. Revised September 2015.].

Asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models with application to ion channels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Gunst, M.C.M.; Shcherbakova, O.V.

2008-01-01

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models as the number of observations goes to infinity. The theorem that we prove is similar to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem on the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution for the case of independent

Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

1997-01-01

parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

Bird surveys at McKinley Bay and Hutchison Bay, Northwest Territories, in 1991

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cornish, B J; Dickson, D L; Dickson, H L

1992-03-01

McKinley Bay is a shallow protected bay along the eastern Beaufort Sea coast which provides an important habitat for diving ducks. Since 1979, the bay has been the site of a winter harbor and support base for oil and gas exploraton in the Beaufort Sea. Aerial surveys for bird abundance and distribution were conducted in August 1991 as a continuation of long-term monitoring of birds in McKinley Bay and Hutchison Bay, a nearby area used as a control. The main objectives of the 1991 surveys were to expand the set of baseline data on natural annual fluctuations in diving duck numbers, and to determine if numbers of diving ducks had changed since the initial 1981-85 surveys. On the day with the best survey conditions, the population of diving ducks at McKinley bay was estimated at ca 32,000, significantly more than 1981-85. At Hutchison Bay, there were an estimated 11,000 ducks. As in previous years, large numbers of diving ducks were observed off Atkinson Point at the northwest corner of McKinley Bay, at the south end of the bay, and in the northeast corner near a long spit. Most divers in Hutchison Bay were at the west side. Diving ducks, primarily Oldsquaw and scoter, were the most abundant bird group in the study area. Observed distribution patterns of birds are discussed with reference to habitat preferences. 16 refs., 7 figs., 30 tabs.

Hierarchical graphical-based human pose estimation via local multi-resolution convolutional neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Aichun; Wang, Tian; Snoussi, Hichem

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the problems of the graphical-based human pose estimation in still images, including the diversity of appearances and confounding background clutter. We present a new architecture for estimating human pose using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Firstly, a Relative Mixture Deformable Model (RMDM) is defined by each pair of connected parts to compute the relative spatial information in the graphical model. Secondly, a Local Multi-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (LMR-CNN) is proposed to train and learn the multi-scale representation of each body parts by combining different levels of part context. Thirdly, a LMR-CNN based hierarchical model is defined to explore the context information of limb parts. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning approach for human pose estimation.

Hierarchical graphical-based human pose estimation via local multi-resolution convolutional neural network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aichun Zhu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the problems of the graphical-based human pose estimation in still images, including the diversity of appearances and confounding background clutter. We present a new architecture for estimating human pose using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN. Firstly, a Relative Mixture Deformable Model (RMDM is defined by each pair of connected parts to compute the relative spatial information in the graphical model. Secondly, a Local Multi-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (LMR-CNN is proposed to train and learn the multi-scale representation of each body parts by combining different levels of part context. Thirdly, a LMR-CNN based hierarchical model is defined to explore the context information of limb parts. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning approach for human pose estimation.

Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Clark, James S

2006-01-01

New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

Estimating sediment accumulation rates in Manila Bay, a marine pollution hot spot in the Seas of East Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sta Maria, E J; Siringan, F P; Bulos, A dM; Sombrito, E Z

2009-01-01

The GEF/UNDP/IMO/PEMSEA project identifies Manila Bay as among the marine pollution hot spots in the Seas of East Asia. (210)Pb dating of its sediment can provide a historical perspective of its pollution loading. However, the validity of (210)Pb dating in a complex dynamic coastal system of Manila Bay may come into question. Land-based sediment input can be high and physical and biological processes can possibly disturb the sediment layers. In this report, the (210)Pb profiles of sediment cores from different parts of the bay are presented. The linear sedimentation rates are shown to be higher in the recent past and are also variable across the bay. The largest change in sedimentation rate, coincided with the occurrence of a volcanic eruption in 1991 and is shown by applying a variant of the CIC model in sedimentation rate calculations. The data suggest that (210)Pb dating can be useful in estimating relative magnitudes of sedimentation rates, even in a complex dynamic coastal system like Manila Bay.

Improving Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation over Complex Terrain in the San Francisco Bay Area

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Cifelli, R.; Chen, H.; Chandrasekar, V.

2017-12-01

A recent study by the State of California's Department of Water Resources has emphasized that the San Francisco Bay Area is at risk of catastrophic flooding. Therefore, accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and forecast (QPF) are critical for protecting life and property in this region. Compared to rain gauge and meteorological satellite, ground based radar has shown great advantages for high-resolution precipitation observations in both space and time domain. In addition, the polarization diversity shows great potential to characterize precipitation microphysics through identification of different hydrometeor types and their size and shape information. Currently, all the radars comprising the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network are operating in dual-polarization mode. Enhancement of QPE is one of the main considerations of the dual-polarization upgrade. The San Francisco Bay Area is covered by two S-band WSR-88D radars, namely, KMUX and KDAX. However, in complex terrain like the Bay Area, it is still challenging to obtain an optimal rainfall algorithm for a given set of dual-polarization measurements. In addition, the accuracy of rain rate estimates is contingent on additional factors such as bright band contamination, vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) correction, and partial beam blockages. This presentation aims to improve radar QPE for the Bay area using advanced dual-polarization rainfall methodologies. The benefit brought by the dual-polarization upgrade of operational radar network is assessed. In addition, a pilot study of gap fill X-band radar performance is conducted in support of regional QPE system development. This paper also presents a detailed comparison between the dual-polarization radar-derived rainfall products with various operational products including the NSSL's Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system. Quantitative evaluation of various rainfall products is achieved

Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

2013-01-01

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Parameter Identification by Bayes Decision and Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

1994-01-01

The problem of parameter identification by Bayes point estimation using neural networks is investigated.......The problem of parameter identification by Bayes point estimation using neural networks is investigated....

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas J Rodhouse

Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

Radium isotopes in Port Phillip Bay: estimation of the rate of bio irrigation of sediments, and water residence time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hancock, G.J.; Webster, I.T.

1998-01-01

Recent work has shown that estuarine sediments are a source of radium (Ra) to coastal waters (Bollinger and Moore, 1982, Webster et al., 1994; Hancock et al., 1997). Ra is soluble in saline water (Moore, 1992, Webster et al., 1995) and is rapidly desorbed into porewater from deposited fluvial sediments where it is continuously generated by insoluble Th parents. The rate at which Ra effuses into surface water has been used to determine the rate of surface-water pore water exchange (Hancock and Murray, 1996). Once in the water column, the behaviour of Ra is essentially conservative, enabling the determination of water residence time in a semi-enclosed estuary (Turekian et al., 1996). Here we use measurements of Ra in an estuary to estimate two water mixing processes. Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a semi-enclosed estuary adjacent to the city of Melbourne, one of the highest density population centres in Australia. The Bay is approximately 50 km in diameter, and has an average depth of 14 m. A recent study found that the potential for eutrophication and algal blooms in the Bay was intricately linked to the fate of nutrients, particularly nitrogen, discharged into the Bay from rivers, drains, and sewage treatment plants (Harris et al. 1996). Two of the most important processes controlling the levels of inorganic N in the water column were identified as bio irrigation of bottom sediments, and the rate of exchange of Bay water with ocean water via Bass Strait. In this paper we describe how Ra isotopes can be used to estimate the rates of these processes, and we compare these rates with estimates made using conventional techniques. Water and sediment samples were collected from five sites in February 1996. Sediment cores were collected by divers, frozen, and sectioned in the laboratory. Surface, mid depth and bottom water samples were collected using a Niskin bottle. Radionuclide activities were determined by alpha spectrometry (Martin and Hancock, 1992) and gamma spectrometry

Estimation of environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay, Iran, via a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

2016-11-01

Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea in Iran and is an important marine habitat for fish and seabirds. In the present study, the environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay was estimated using a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model and a linear programming model. The distribution of phosphorus, simulated by the numerical model, was used as an index for the occurrence of eutrophication and to determine the water quality response field of each of the pollution sources. The linear programming model was used to calculate and allocate the total maximum allowable loads of phosphorus to each of the pollution sources in a way that eutrophication be prevented and at the same time maximum environmental capacity be achieved. In addition, the effect of an artificial inlet on the environmental capacity of the bay was investigated. Observations of surface currents in Gorgan Bay were made by GPS-tracked surface drifters to provide data for calibration and verification of numerical modeling. Drifters were deployed at five different points across the bay over a period of 5 days. The results indicated that the annual environmental capacity of phosphorus is approximately 141 t if a concentration of 0.0477 mg/l for phosphorus is set as the water quality criterion. Creating an artificial inlet with a width of 1 km in the western part of the bay would result in a threefold increase in the environmental capacity of the study area.

Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ina C Ansmann

Full Text Available Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus. These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c. A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE (95% CI: 510-598 was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE (95% CI: 181-207, while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE (95% CI: 336-556 individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128 raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5% declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

Estimates of bottom roughness length and bottom shear stress in South San Francisco Bay, California

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, R.T.; Ling, C.-H.; Gartner, J.W.; Wang, P.-F.

1999-01-01

A field investigation of the hydrodynamics and the resuspension and transport of participate matter in a bottom boundary layer was carried out in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay), California, during March-April 1995. Using broadband acoustic Doppler current profilers, detailed measurements of turbulent mean velocity distribution within 1.5 m above bed have been obtained. A global method of data analysis was used for estimating bottom roughness length zo and bottom shear stress (or friction velocities u*). Field data have been examined by dividing the time series of velocity profiles into 24-hour periods and independently analyzing the velocity profile time series by flooding and ebbing periods. The global method of solution gives consistent properties of bottom roughness length zo and bottom shear stress values (or friction velocities u*) in South Bay. Estimated mean values of zo and u* for flooding and ebbing cycles are different. The differences in mean zo and u* are shown to be caused by tidal current flood-ebb inequality, rather than the flooding or ebbing of tidal currents. The bed shear stress correlates well with a reference velocity; the slope of the correlation defines a drag coefficient. Forty-three days of field data in South Bay show two regimes of zo (and drag coefficient) as a function of a reference velocity. When the mean velocity is >25-30 cm s-1, the ln zo (and thus the drag coefficient) is inversely proportional to the reference velocity. The cause for the reduction of roughness length is hypothesized as sediment erosion due to intensifying tidal currents thereby reducing bed roughness. When the mean velocity is <25-30 cm s-1, the correlation between zo and the reference velocity is less clear. A plausible explanation of scattered values of zo under this condition may be sediment deposition. Measured sediment data were inadequate to support this hypothesis, but the proposed hypothesis warrants further field investigation.

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-05-09

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-01-01

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

A pollutant load hierarchical allocation method integrated in an environmental capacity management system for Zhushan Bay, Taihu Lake.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Shidong; Jia, Haifeng; Yang, Cong; Melching, Charles; Yuan, Yongping

2015-11-15

An environmental capacity management (ECM) system was developed to help practically implement a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for a key bay in a highly eutrophic lake in China. The ECM system consists of a simulation platform for pollutant load calculation and a pollutant load hierarchical allocation (PLHA) system. The simulation platform was developed by linking the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP). In the PLHA, pollutant loads were allocated top-down in several levels based on characteristics of the pollutant sources. Different allocation methods could be used for the different levels with the advantages of each method combined over the entire allocation. Zhushan Bay of Taihu Lake, one of the most eutrophic lakes in China, was selected as a case study. The allowable loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, ammonia, and chemical oxygen demand were found to be 2122.2, 94.9, 1230.4, and 5260.0 t·yr(-1), respectively. The PLHA for the case study consists of 5 levels. At level 0, loads are allocated to those from the lakeshore direct drainage, atmospheric deposition, internal release, and tributary inflows. At level 1 the loads allocated to tributary inflows are allocated to the 3 tributaries. At level 2, the loads allocated to one inflow tributary are allocated to upstream areas and local sources along the tributary. At level 3, the loads allocated to local sources are allocated to the point and non-point sources from different towns. At level 4, the loads allocated to non-point sources in each town are allocated to different villages. Compared with traditional forms of pollutant load allocation methods, PLHA can combine the advantages of different methods which put different priority weights on equity and efficiency, and the PLHA is easy to understand for stakeholders and more flexible to adjust when applied in practical cases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal estimates of DOC standing stocks in Apalachicola Bay estuary: Towards a better understanding using field, ocean color and model data

Science.gov (United States)

D'Sa, E. J.; Joshi, I.; Osburn, C. L.; Bianchi, T. S.; Ko, D. S.; Oviedo-Vargas, D.; Arellano, A.; Ward, N.

2016-12-01

Apalachicola Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary located in Florida's panhandle, is well known for its water quality and oyster yields. We present the use of combined field and ocean color satellite observations and the outputs of a high-resolution hydrodynamic model to study the influence of physical processes on the distribution and the transport of terrestrially derived CDOM and DOC to shelf waters during the spring and fall of 2015. Determination of DOC stocks were based on the development of a CDOM algorithm (R2 = 0.87, N = 9) for the VIIRS ocean color sensor, and the assessment of CDOM - DOC relationships (R2 = 0.88, N = 13 in March; R2 = 0.83, N = 24 in November) for the Apalachicola Bay. Satellite-derived CDOM and DOC maps together with model-based salinity distributions revealed their spatial extent, sources and transport to the shelf water. Furthermore, strong seasonal influence on DOM distribution in the bay was associated with inputs from Apalachicola and Carrabelle Rivers and the surrounding marshes. Estimates of DOC standing stocks in the bay obtained using ocean color data and high-resolution bathymetry showed relatively higher stocks in November ( 3.71 × 106 kg C, 560 km2) than in March ( 4.07 × 106 kg C, 560 km2) despite lower river discharge in dry season. Results of DOC flux estimates from the bay to coastal waters will also be presented.

Estimation of breeding values for mean and dispersion, their variance and correlation using double hierarchical generalized linear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Felleki, M; Lee, D; Lee, Y; Gilmour, A R; Rönnegård, L

2012-12-01

The possibility of breeding for uniform individuals by selecting animals expressing a small response to environment has been studied extensively in animal breeding. Bayesian methods for fitting models with genetic components in the residual variance have been developed for this purpose, but have limitations due to the computational demands. We use the hierarchical (h)-likelihood from the theory of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM) to derive an estimation algorithm that is computationally feasible for large datasets. Random effects for both the mean and residual variance parts of the model are estimated together with their variance/covariance components. An important feature of the algorithm is that it can fit a correlation between the random effects for mean and variance. An h-likelihood estimator is implemented in the R software and an iterative reweighted least square (IRWLS) approximation of the h-likelihood is implemented using ASReml. The difference in variance component estimates between the two implementations is investigated, as well as the potential bias of the methods, using simulations. IRWLS gives the same results as h-likelihood in simple cases with no severe indication of bias. For more complex cases, only IRWLS could be used, and bias did appear. The IRWLS is applied on the pig litter size data previously analysed by Sorensen & Waagepetersen (2003) using Bayesian methodology. The estimates we obtained by using IRWLS are similar to theirs, with the estimated correlation between the random genetic effects being -0·52 for IRWLS and -0·62 in Sorensen & Waagepetersen (2003).

Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

2017-07-01

Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model

Science.gov (United States)

Coley, Rebecca Yates; Browna, Elizabeth R.

2016-01-01

Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre-exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population-level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood-based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual-level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson-distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. PMID:26869051

Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

2015-10-01

Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Regions across the Conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Kashuba, Roxolana; Cha, YoonKyung; Alameddine, Ibrahim; Lee, Boknam; Cuffney, Thomas F.

2010-01-01

Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization

An Approach to Structure Determination and Estimation of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas and its Application to Bayesian Classification

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Górecki, J.; Hofert, M.; Holeňa, Martin

2016-01-01

Roč. 46, č. 1 (2016), s. 21-59 ISSN 0925-9902 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Grant - others:Slezská univerzita v Opavě(CZ) SGS/21/2014 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Copula * Hierarchical archimedean copula * Copula estimation * Structure determination * Kendall’s tau * Bayesian classification Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 1.294, year: 2016

The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

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Camara Vincent A. R.

1998-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results. It is shown that empirical Bayes reliability functions are in general sensitive to the choice of the loss function, and that the squared error loss does not always yield the best empirical Bayes reliability estimate.

Robust Bayes Forecasting For Grouped Binary Data With Known Distortion Interval

OpenAIRE

Pashkevich, M.

2004-01-01

The paper is devoted the problem of robust forecasting for the beta-mixed hierarchical models of grouped binary data in the case of stochastic additive distortions of binary observations. In the case of known lower and upper bounds of the distortion intervals, a new robust minimax Bayes predictor is developed. The performance of the proposed forecasting technique is validated by computer simulationtadata.

A Hierarchical Clustering Methodology for the Estimation of Toxicity

Science.gov (United States)

A Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) methodology based on hierarchical clustering was developed to predict toxicological endpoints. This methodology utilizes Ward's method to divide a training set into a series of structurally similar clusters. The structural sim...

Microphytobenthos potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay system

Science.gov (United States)

Guarini, Jean-Marc; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, Jody L.; Gros, Philippe

2002-01-01

In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

Rainfall Estimation and Performance Characterization Using an X-band Dual-Polarization Radar in the San Francisco Bay Area

Science.gov (United States)

Cifelli, R.; Chen, H.; Chandra, C. V.

2016-12-01

The San Francisco Bay area is home to over 5 million people. In February 2016, the area also hosted the NFL Super bowl, bringing additional people and focusing national attention to the region. Based on the El Nino forecast, public officials expressed concern for heavy rainfall and flooding with the potential for threats to public safety, costly flood damage to infrastructure, negative impacts to water quality (e.g., combined sewer overflows) and major disruptions in transportation. Mitigation of the negative impacts listed above requires accurate precipitation monitoring (quantitative precipitation estimation-QPE) and prediction (including radar nowcasting). The proximity to terrain and maritime conditions as well as the siting of existing NEXRAD radars are all challenges in providing accurate, short-term near surface rainfall estimates in the Bay area urban region. As part of a collaborative effort between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory, Colorado State University (CSU), and Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD), an X-band dual-polarization radar was deployed in Santa Clara Valley in February of 2016 to provide support for the National Weather Service during the Super Bowl and NOAA's El Nino Rapid Response field campaign. This high-resolution radar was deployed on the roof of one of the buildings at the Penitencia Water Treatment Plant. The main goal was to provide detailed precipitation information for use in weather forecasting and assists the water district in their ability to predict rainfall and streamflow with real-time rainfall data over Santa Clara County especially during a potentially large El Nino year. The following figure shows the radar's coverage map, as well as sample reflectivity observations on March 06, 2016, at 00:04UTC. This paper presents results from a pilot study from February, 2016 to May, 2016 demonstrating the use of X-band weather radar for quantitative precipitation

BayesTwin: An R Package for Bayesian Inference of Item-Level Twin Data

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Inga Schwabe

2017-11-01

Full Text Available BayesTwin is an open-source R package that serves as a pipeline to the MCMC program JAGS to perform Bayesian inference on genetically-informative hierarchical twin data. Simultaneously to the biometric model, an item response theory (IRT measurement model is estimated, allowing analysis of the raw phenotypic (item-level data. The integration of such a measurement model is important since earlier research has shown that an analysis based on an aggregated measure (e.g., a sum-score based analysis can lead to an underestimation of heritability and the spurious finding of genotype-environment interactions. The package includes all common biometric and IRT models as well as functions that help plot relevant information or determine whether the analysis was performed well. Funding statement: Partly funded by the PROO grant 411-12-623 from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO.

Hierarchical Ag mesostructures for single particle SERS substrate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Minwei, E-mail: xuminwei@xjtu.edu.cn; Zhang, Yin

2017-01-30

Highlights: • Hierarchical Ag mesostructures with the size of 250, 360 and 500 nm are synthesized via a seed-mediated approach. • The Ag mesostructures present the tailorable size and highly roughened surfaces. • The average enhancement factors for individual Ag mesostructures were estimated to be as high as 10{sup 6}. - Abstract: Hierarchical Ag mesostructures with highly rough surface morphology have been synthesized at room temperature through a simple seed-mediated approach. Electron microscopy characterizations indicate that the obtained Ag mesostructures exhibit a textured surface morphology with the flower-like architecture. Moreover, the particle size can be tailored easily in the range of 250–500 nm. For the growth process of the hierarchical Ag mesostructures, it is believed that the self-assembly mechanism is more reasonable rather than the epitaxial overgrowth of Ag seed. The oriented attachment of nanoparticles is revealed during the formation of Ag mesostructures. Single particle surface enhanced Raman spectra (sp-SERS) of crystal violet adsorbed on the hierarchical Ag mesostructures were measured. Results reveal that the hierarchical Ag mesostructures can be highly sensitive sp-SERS substrates with good reproducibility. The average enhancement factors for individual Ag mesostructures are estimated to be about 10{sup 6}.

Estimating the Term Structure With a Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model: An Application to Corporate Bonds1

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B.; Rosner, Gary L.

2011-01-01

The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material. PMID:21765566

Hierarchical Traces for Reduced NSM Memory Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Dahl, Torbjørn S.

This paper presents work on using hierarchical long term memory to reduce the memory requirements of nearest sequence memory (NSM) learning, a previously published, instance-based reinforcement learning algorithm. A hierarchical memory representation reduces the memory requirements by allowing traces to share common sub-sequences. We present moderated mechanisms for estimating discounted future rewards and for dealing with hidden state using hierarchical memory. We also present an experimental analysis of how the sub-sequence length affects the memory compression achieved and show that the reduced memory requirements do not effect the speed of learning. Finally, we analyse and discuss the persistence of the sub-sequences independent of specific trace instances.

Whole-system metabolism and CO2 fluxes in a Mediterranean Bay dominated by seagrass beds (Palma Bay, NW Mediterranean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Gazeau

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Planktonic and benthic incubations (bare and Posidonia oceanica vegetated sediments were performed at monthly intervals from March 2001 to October 2002 in a seagrass vegetated area of the Bay of Palma (Mallorca, Spain. Results showed a contrast between the planktonic compartment, which was on average near metabolic balance (−4.6±5.9 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 and the benthic compartment, which was autotrophic (17.6±8.5 mmol O2 m-2 d-1. During two cruises in March and June 2002, planktonic and benthic incubations were performed at several stations in the bay to estimate the whole-system metabolism and to examine its relationship with partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 and apparent oxygen utilisation (AOU spatial patterns. Moreover, during the second cruise, when the residence time of water was long enough, net ecosystem production (NEP estimates based on incubations were compared, over the Posidonia oceanica meadow, to rates derived from dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC and oxygen (O2 mass balance budgets. These budgets provided NEP estimates in fair agreement with those derived from direct metabolic estimates based on incubated samples over the Posidonia oceanica meadow. Whereas the seagrass community was autotrophic, the excess organic carbon production therein could only balance the planktonic heterotrophy in shallow waters relative to the maximum depth of the bay (55 m. This generated a horizontal gradient from autotrophic or balanced communities in the shallow seagrass-covered areas, to strongly heterotrophic communities in deeper areas of the bay. It seems therefore that, on an annual scale in the whole bay, the organic matter production by the Posidonia oceanica may not be sufficient to fully compensate the heterotrophy of the planktonic compartment, which may require external organic carbon inputs, most likely from land.

Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Klauer, Karl Christoph

2010-01-01

Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

Microphytobenthic potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay: A comparative study

Science.gov (United States)

Guarini, J.-M.; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, J.

2002-01-01

In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

Improving satellite-based PM2.5 estimates in China using Gaussian processes modeling in a Bayesian hierarchical setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Wenxi; Liu, Yang; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

2017-08-01

Using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements and statistical models to estimate ground-level PM 2.5 is a promising way to fill the areas that are not covered by ground PM 2.5 monitors. The statistical models used in previous studies are primarily Linear Mixed Effects (LME) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. In this study, we developed a new regression model between PM 2.5 and AOD using Gaussian processes in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Gaussian processes model the stochastic nature of the spatial random effects, where the mean surface and the covariance function is specified. The spatial stochastic process is incorporated under the Bayesian hierarchical framework to explain the variation of PM 2.5 concentrations together with other factors, such as AOD, spatial and non-spatial random effects. We evaluate the results of our model and compare them with those of other, conventional statistical models (GWR and LME) by within-sample model fitting and out-of-sample validation (cross validation, CV). The results show that our model possesses a CV result (R 2  = 0.81) that reflects higher accuracy than that of GWR and LME (0.74 and 0.48, respectively). Our results indicate that Gaussian process models have the potential to improve the accuracy of satellite-based PM 2.5 estimates.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of mobility metrics for hazard model input calibration

Science.gov (United States)

Calder, Eliza; Ogburn, Sarah; Spiller, Elaine; Rutarindwa, Regis; Berger, Jim

2015-04-01

In this work we present a method to constrain flow mobility input parameters for pyroclastic flow models using hierarchical Bayes modeling of standard mobility metrics such as H/L and flow volume etc. The advantage of hierarchical modeling is that it can leverage the information in global dataset for a particular mobility metric in order to reduce the uncertainty in modeling of an individual volcano, especially important where individual volcanoes have only sparse datasets. We use compiled pyroclastic flow runout data from Colima, Merapi, Soufriere Hills, Unzen and Semeru volcanoes, presented in an open-source database FlowDat (https://vhub.org/groups/massflowdatabase). While the exact relationship between flow volume and friction varies somewhat between volcanoes, dome collapse flows originating from the same volcano exhibit similar mobility relationships. Instead of fitting separate regression models for each volcano dataset, we use a variation of the hierarchical linear model (Kass and Steffey, 1989). The model presents a hierarchical structure with two levels; all dome collapse flows and dome collapse flows at specific volcanoes. The hierarchical model allows us to assume that the flows at specific volcanoes share a common distribution of regression slopes, then solves for that distribution. We present comparisons of the 95% confidence intervals on the individual regression lines for the data set from each volcano as well as those obtained from the hierarchical model. The results clearly demonstrate the advantage of considering global datasets using this technique. The technique developed is demonstrated here for mobility metrics, but can be applied to many other global datasets of volcanic parameters. In particular, such methods can provide a means to better contain parameters for volcanoes for which we only have sparse data, a ubiquitous problem in volcanology.

PERBANDINGAN ESTIMASI KEMAMPUAN LATEN ANTARA METODE MAKSIMUM LIKELIHOOD DAN METODE BAYES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heri Retnawati

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Studi ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan ketepatan estimasi kemampuan laten (latent trait pada model logistik dengan metode maksimum likelihood (ML gabungan dan bayes. Studi ini menggunakan metode simulasi Monte Carlo, dengan model data ujian nasional matematika SMP. Variabel simulasi adalah panjang tes dan banyaknya peserta.  Data dibangkitkan dengan menggunakan SAS/IML dengan replikasi 40 kali, dan tiap data diestimasi dengan ML dan Bayes. Hasil estimasi kemudian dibandingkan dengan kemampuan yang sebenarnya, dengan menghitung mean square of error (MSE dan korelasi antara kemampuan laten yang sebenarnya dan hasil estimasi. Metode yang memiliki MSE lebih kecil dikatakan sebagai metode estimasi yang lebih baik. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa pada estimasi kemampuan laten dengan 15, 20, 25, dan 30 butir dengan 500 dan 1.000 peserta, hasil MSE belum stabil, namun ketika peserta menjadi 1.500 orang, diperoleh akurasi estimasi kemampuan yang hampir sama baik estimasi antara metode ML dan metode Bayes. Pada estimasi dengan 15 dan 20 butir dan peserta 500, 1.000, dan 1.500, hasil MSE belum stabil, dan ketika estimasi melibatkan 25 dan 30 butir, baik dengan peserta 500, 1.000, maupun 1.500 akan diperoleh hasil yang lebih akurat dengan metode ML. Kata kunci: estimasi kemampuan, metode maksimum likelihood, metode Bayes     THE COMPARISON OF ESTIMATION OF LATENT TRAITS USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND BAYES METHODS Abstract This study aimed to compare the accuracy of the estimation of latent ability (latent trait in the logistic model using maximum likelihood (ML and Bayes methods. This study uses a quantitative approach that is the Monte Carlo simulation method using students responses to national examination as data model, and variables are the length of the test and the number of participants. The data were generated using SAS/IML with replication 40 times, and each datum is then estimated by ML and Bayes. The estimation results are then compared with the

The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vincent A. R. Camara

1999-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results.

Hierarchical screening for multiple mental disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Batterham, Philip J; Calear, Alison L; Sunderland, Matthew; Carragher, Natacha; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

2013-10-01

There is a need for brief, accurate screening when assessing multiple mental disorders. Two-stage hierarchical screening, consisting of brief pre-screening followed by a battery of disorder-specific scales for those who meet diagnostic criteria, may increase the efficiency of screening without sacrificing precision. This study tested whether more efficient screening could be gained using two-stage hierarchical screening than by administering multiple separate tests. Two Australian adult samples (N=1990) with high rates of psychopathology were recruited using Facebook advertising to examine four methods of hierarchical screening for four mental disorders: major depressive disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, panic disorder and social phobia. Using K6 scores to determine whether full screening was required did not increase screening efficiency. However, pre-screening based on two decision tree approaches or item gating led to considerable reductions in the mean number of items presented per disorder screened, with estimated item reductions of up to 54%. The sensitivity of these hierarchical methods approached 100% relative to the full screening battery. Further testing of the hierarchical screening approach based on clinical criteria and in other samples is warranted. The results demonstrate that a two-phase hierarchical approach to screening multiple mental disorders leads to considerable increases efficiency gains without reducing accuracy. Screening programs should take advantage of prescreeners based on gating items or decision trees to reduce the burden on respondents. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The last interglacial period at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba and an estimate of late Quaternary tectonic uplift rate in a strike-slip regime

Science.gov (United States)

Schweig, E. S.; Muhs, D. R.; Simmons, K. R.; Halley, R. B.

2015-12-01

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba is an area dominated by a strike-slip tectonic regime and is therefore expected to have very low Quaternary uplift rates. We tested this hypothesis by study of an unusually well preserved emergent reef terrace around the bay. Up to 12 m of unaltered, growth-position reef corals are exposed at about 40 sections examined around ˜40 km of coastline. Maximum reef elevations in the protected, inner part of the bay are ˜11-12 m, whereas outer-coast shoreline angles of wave-cut benches are as high as ˜14 m. Fifty uranium-series analyses of unrecrystallized corals from six localities yield ages ranging from ˜134 ka to ˜115 ka, when adjusted for small biases due to slightly elevated initial 234U/238U values. Thus, ages of corals correlate this reef to the peak of the last interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5.5. Previously, we dated the Key Largo Limestone to the same high-sea stand in the tectonically stable Florida Keys. Estimates of paleo-sea level during MIS 5.5 in the Florida Keys are ~6.6 to 8.3 m above present. Assuming a similar paleo-sea level in Cuba, this yields a long-term tectonic uplift rate of 0.04-0.06 m/ka over the past ~120 ka. This estimate supports the hypothesis that the tectonic uplift rate should be low in this strike-slip regime. Nevertheless, on the southeast coast of Cuba, east of our study area, we have observed flights of multiple marine terraces, suggesting either (1) a higher uplift rate or (2) an unusually well-preserved record of pre-MIS 5.5 terraces not observed at Guantanamo Bay.

Status, trends, and changes in freshwater inflows to bay systems in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area

Science.gov (United States)

Asquith, W.H.; Mosier, J. G.; Bush, P.W.

1997-01-01

This report presents the results of a study to quantify current (1983–93) mean freshwater inflows to the six bay systems (open water and wetlands) in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area, to test for historical temporal trends in inflows, and to quantify historical and projected changes in inflows. The report also addresses the adequacy of existing data to estimate freshwater inflows.

Geochemistry of sediments in the Back Bay and Yellowknife Bay of the Great Slave Lake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mudroch, A.; Joshi, S.R.; Sutherland, D.; Mudroch, P.; Dickson, K.M.

1989-01-01

Gold mining activities have generated wastes with high concentrations of arsenic and zinc in the vicinity of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada. Some of the waste material has been discharged into Yellowknife Bay of Great Slave Lake. Concentrations of arsenic and zinc were determined in sediment cores collected at the depositional areas of Yellowknife Bay. Sedimentation rates were estimated using two different radiometric approaches: the depth profiles of cesium 137 and lead 210. Geochemical analysis of the sediment cores indicated input of similar material into sampling areas over the past 50 yr. Age profiles of the sediment constructed from the radionuclide measurements were used to determine historical trends of arsenic and zinc inputs into Yellowknife Bay. The historical record was in good agreement with implemented remedial actions and the usage patterns of both elements. 16 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

On the accuracy of the simple ocean data assimilation analysis for estimating heat Budgets of the Near-Surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

The accuracy of data from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) model for estimating the heat budget of the upper ocean is tested in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. SODA is able to reproduce the changes in heat content when...

Bayes Empirical Bayes Inference of Amino Acid Sites Under Positive Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Ziheng; Wong, Wendy Shuk Wan; Nielsen, Rasmus

2005-01-01

, with > 1 indicating positive selection. Statistical distributions are used to model the variation in among sites, allowing a subset of sites to have > 1 while the rest of the sequence may be under purifying selection with ... probabilities that a site comes from the site class with > 1. Current implementations, however, use the naive EB (NEB) approach and fail to account for sampling errors in maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters, such as the proportions and ratios for the site classes. In small data sets lacking...... information, this approach may lead to unreliable posterior probability calculations. In this paper, we develop a Bayes empirical Bayes (BEB) approach to the problem, which assigns a prior to the model parameters and integrates over their uncertainties. We compare the new and old methods on real and simulated...

Prediction of Solvent Physical Properties using the Hierarchical Clustering Method

Science.gov (United States)

Recently a QSAR (Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship) method, the hierarchical clustering method, was developed to estimate acute toxicity values for large, diverse datasets. This methodology has now been applied to the estimate solvent physical properties including sur...

Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez

2007-01-01

A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...

A fast EM algorithm for BayesA-like prediction of genomic breeding values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaochen Sun

Full Text Available Prediction accuracies of estimated breeding values for economically important traits are expected to benefit from genomic information. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP panels used in genomic prediction are increasing in density, but the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC estimation of SNP effects can be quite time consuming or slow to converge when a large number of SNPs are fitted simultaneously in a linear mixed model. Here we present an EM algorithm (termed "fastBayesA" without MCMC. This fastBayesA approach treats the variances of SNP effects as missing data and uses a joint posterior mode of effects compared to the commonly used BayesA which bases predictions on posterior means of effects. In each EM iteration, SNP effects are predicted as a linear combination of best linear unbiased predictions of breeding values from a mixed linear animal model that incorporates a weighted marker-based realized relationship matrix. Method fastBayesA converges after a few iterations to a joint posterior mode of SNP effects under the BayesA model. When applied to simulated quantitative traits with a range of genetic architectures, fastBayesA is shown to predict GEBV as accurately as BayesA but with less computing effort per SNP than BayesA. Method fastBayesA can be used as a computationally efficient substitute for BayesA, especially when an increasing number of markers bring unreasonable computational burden or slow convergence to MCMC approaches.

The Realized Hierarchical Archimedean Copula in Risk Modelling

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Ostap Okhrin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces the concept of the realized hierarchical Archimedean copula (rHAC. The proposed approach inherits the ability of the copula to capture the dependencies among financial time series, and combines it with additional information contained in high-frequency data. The considered model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and is able to accurately predict high-dimensional distributions. This flexibility is obtained by using a hierarchical structure in the copula. The time variability of the model is provided by daily forecasts of the realized correlation matrix, which is used to estimate the structure and the parameters of the rHAC. Extensive simulation studies show the validity of the estimator based on this realized correlation matrix, and its performance, in comparison to the benchmark models. The application of the estimator to one-day-ahead Value at Risk (VaR prediction using high-frequency data exhibits good forecasting properties for a multivariate portfolio.

Estimation of the inverse Weibull distribution based on progressively censored data: Comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musleh, Rola M.; Helu, Amal

2014-01-01

In this article we consider statistical inferences about the unknown parameters of the Inverse Weibull distribution based on progressively type-II censoring using classical and Bayesian procedures. For classical procedures we propose using the maximum likelihood; the least squares methods and the approximate maximum likelihood estimators. The Bayes estimators are obtained based on both the symmetric and asymmetric (Linex, General Entropy and Precautionary) loss functions. There are no explicit forms for the Bayes estimators, therefore, we propose Lindley's approximation method to compute the Bayes estimators. A comparison between these estimators is provided by using extensive simulation and three criteria, namely, Bias, mean squared error and Pitman nearness (PN) probability. It is concluded that the approximate Bayes estimators outperform the classical estimators most of the time. Real life data example is provided to illustrate our proposed estimators. - Highlights: • We consider progressively type-II censored data from the Inverse Weibull distribution (IW). • We derive MLEs, approximate MLEs, LS and Bayes estimate methods of scale and shape parameters of the IW. • Bayes estimator of shape parameter cannot be expressed in closed forms. • We suggest using Lindley's approximation. • We conclude that the Bayes estimates outperform the classical methods

Application of macrobenthos functional groups to estimate the ecosystem health in a semi-enclosed bay.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Shitao; Zhou, Ran; Qin, Xuebo; Shi, Honghua; Ding, Dewen

2013-09-15

In this study, the functional group concept was first applied to evaluate the ecosystem health of Bohai Bay. Macrobenthos functional groups were defined according to feeding types and divided into five groups: a carnivorous group (CA), omnivorous group (OM), planktivorous group (PL), herbivorous group (HE), and detritivorous group (DE). Groups CA, DE, OM, and PL were identified, but the HE group was absent from Bohai Bay. Group DE was dominant during the study periods. The ecosystem health was assessed using a functional group evenness index. The functional group evenness values of most sampling stations were less than 0.40, indicating that the ecosystem health was deteriorated in Bohai Bay. Such deterioration could be attributed to land reclamation, industrial and sewage effluents, oil pollution, and hypersaline water discharge. This study demonstrates that the functional group concept can be applied to ecosystem health assessment in a semi-enclosed bay. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

33 CFR 100.124 - Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York. 100.124 Section 100.124 Navigation and Navigable... NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.124 Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York...

A Bayesian hierarchical model with novel prior specifications for estimating HIV testing rates.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Qian; Kang, Jian; Song, Ruiguang; Hall, H Irene

2016-04-30

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a severe infectious disease actively spreading globally, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is an advanced stage of HIV infection. The HIV testing rate, that is, the probability that an AIDS-free HIV infected person seeks a test for HIV during a particular time interval, given no previous positive test has been obtained prior to the start of the time, is an important parameter for public health. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with two levels of hierarchy to estimate the HIV testing rate using annual AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnoses data. At level one, we model the latent number of HIV infections for each year using a Poisson distribution with the intensity parameter representing the HIV incidence rate. At level two, the annual numbers of AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnosed cases and all undiagnosed cases stratified by the HIV infections at different years are modeled using a multinomial distribution with parameters including the HIV testing rate. We propose a new class of priors for the HIV incidence rate and HIV testing rate taking into account the temporal dependence of these parameters to improve the estimation accuracy. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm based on the adaptive rejection metropolis sampling technique. We demonstrate our model using simulation studies and the analysis of the national HIV surveillance data in the USA. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

OYSTER POPULATUION ESTIMATION IN SUPPORT OF THE TEN-YEAR GOAL FOR OYSTER RESOTRATION IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY: DEVELOPING STRATEGIES FOR RESTORING AND MANAGING THE EASTERN OYSTER

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Roger, Steve Jordan, Gary Smith, Kennedy Paynter, James Wesson, Mary Christman, Jessica Vanisko, Juliana Harding, Kelly Greenhawk and Melissa Southworth. 2003. Oyster Population Estimation in Support of the Ten-Year Goal for Oyster Restoration in the Chesapeake Bay: Develop...

Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolaus Umlauf

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Structured additive regression (STAR models provide a flexible framework for model- ing possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models and generalized additive models as special cases but also allow a wider class of effects, e.g., for geographical or spatio-temporal data, allowing for specification of complex and realistic models. BayesX is standalone software package providing software for fitting general class of STAR models. Based on a comprehensive open-source regression toolbox written in C++, BayesX uses Bayesian inference for estimating STAR models based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a mixed model representation of STAR models, or stepwise regression techniques combining penalized least squares estimation with model selection. BayesX not only covers models for responses from univariate exponential families, but also models from less-standard regression situations such as models for multi-categorical responses with either ordered or unordered categories, continuous time survival data, or continuous time multi-state models. This paper presents a new fully interactive R interface to BayesX: the R package R2BayesX. With the new package, STAR models can be conveniently specified using Rs formula language (with some extended terms, fitted using the BayesX binary, represented in R with objects of suitable classes, and finally printed/summarized/plotted. This makes BayesX much more accessible to users familiar with R and adds extensive graphics capabilities for visualizing fitted STAR models. Furthermore, R2BayesX complements the already impressive capabilities for semiparametric regression in R by a comprehensive toolbox comprising in particular more complex response types and alternative inferential procedures such as simulation-based Bayesian inference.

Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sotto, Lara Patricia A; Beusen, Arthur H W; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

2015-01-01

A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used

Sustainable development in the Hudson Bay/James Bay bioregion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

An overview is presented of projects planned for the James Bay/Hudson Bay region, and the expected environmental impacts of these projects. The watershed of James Bay and Hudson Bay covers well over one third of Canada, from southern Alberta to central Ontario to Baffin Island, as well as parts of north Dakota and Minnesota in the U.S.A. Hydroelectric power developments that change the timing and rate of flow of fresh water may cause changes in the nature and duration of ice cover, habitats of marine mammals, fish and migratory birds, currents into and out of Hudson Bay/James Bay, seasonal and annual loads of sediments and nutrients to marine ecosystems, and anadromous fish populations. Hydroelectric projects are proposed for the region by Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba. In January 1992, the Canadian Arctic Resources Committee (CARC), the Environmental Committee of Sanikuluaq, and the Rawson Academy of Arctic Science will launch the Hudson Bay/James Bay Bioregion Program, an independent initiative to apply an ecosystem approach to the region. Two main objectives are to provide a comprehensive assessment of the cumulative impacts of human activities on the marine and freshwater ecosystems of the Hudson Bay/James Bay bioregion, and to foster sustainable development by examining and proposing cooperative processes for decision making among governments, developers, aboriginal peoples and other stakeholders. 1 fig

Accuracy of latent-variable estimation in Bayesian semi-supervised learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamazaki, Keisuke

2015-09-01

Hierarchical probabilistic models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. These models consist of observable and latent variables, which represent the observable data and the underlying data-generation process, respectively. Unsupervised learning tasks, such as cluster analysis, are regarded as estimations of latent variables based on the observable ones. The estimation of latent variables in semi-supervised learning, where some labels are observed, will be more precise than that in unsupervised, and one of the concerns is to clarify the effect of the labeled data. However, there has not been sufficient theoretical analysis of the accuracy of the estimation of latent variables. In a previous study, a distribution-based error function was formulated, and its asymptotic form was calculated for unsupervised learning with generative models. It has been shown that, for the estimation of latent variables, the Bayes method is more accurate than the maximum-likelihood method. The present paper reveals the asymptotic forms of the error function in Bayesian semi-supervised learning for both discriminative and generative models. The results show that the generative model, which uses all of the given data, performs better when the model is well specified. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distribution and behavior of major and trace elements in Tokyo Bay, Mutsu Bay and Funka Bay marine sediments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Honda, Teruyuki; Kimura, Ken-ichiro

2003-01-01

Fourteen major and trace elements in marine sediment core samples collected from the coasts along eastern Japan, i.e. Tokyo Bay (II) (the recess), Tokyo Bay (IV) (the mouth), Mutsu Bay and Funka Bay and the Northwest Pacific basin as a comparative subject were determined by the instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The sedimentation rates and sedimentary ages were calculated for the coastal sediment cores by the 210 Pb method. The results obtained in this study are summarized as follows: (1) Lanthanoid abundance patterns suggested that the major origin of the sediments was terrigenous material. La*/Lu* and Ce*/La* ratios revealed that the sediments from Tokyo Bay (II) and Mutsu Bay more directly reflected the contribution from river than those of other regions. In addition, the Th/Sc ratio indicated that the coastal sediments mainly originated in the materials from the volcanic island-arcs, Japanese islands, whereas those from the Northwest Pacific mainly from the continent. (2) The correlation between the Ce/U and Th/U ratios with high correlation coefficients of 0.920 to 0.991 indicated that all the sediments from Tokyo Bay (II) and Funka Bay were in reducing conditions while at least the upper sediments from Tokyo Bay (IV) and Mutsu Bay were in oxidizing conditions. (3) It became quite obvious that the sedimentation mechanism and the sedimentation environment at Tokyo Bay (II) was different from those at Tokyo Bay (IV), since the sedimentation rate at Tokyo Bay (II) was approximately twice as large as that at Tokyo Bay (IV). The sedimentary age of the 5th layer (8∼10 cm in depth) from Funka Bay was calculated at approximately 1940∼50, which agreed with the time, 1943∼45 when Showa-shinzan was formed by the eruption of the Usu volcano. (author)

Validation of differential gene expression algorithms: Application comparing fold-change estimation to hypothesis testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bickel David R

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Sustained research on the problem of determining which genes are differentially expressed on the basis of microarray data has yielded a plethora of statistical algorithms, each justified by theory, simulation, or ad hoc validation and yet differing in practical results from equally justified algorithms. Recently, a concordance method that measures agreement among gene lists have been introduced to assess various aspects of differential gene expression detection. This method has the advantage of basing its assessment solely on the results of real data analyses, but as it requires examining gene lists of given sizes, it may be unstable. Results Two methodologies for assessing predictive error are described: a cross-validation method and a posterior predictive method. As a nonparametric method of estimating prediction error from observed expression levels, cross validation provides an empirical approach to assessing algorithms for detecting differential gene expression that is fully justified for large numbers of biological replicates. Because it leverages the knowledge that only a small portion of genes are differentially expressed, the posterior predictive method is expected to provide more reliable estimates of algorithm performance, allaying concerns about limited biological replication. In practice, the posterior predictive method can assess when its approximations are valid and when they are inaccurate. Under conditions in which its approximations are valid, it corroborates the results of cross validation. Both comparison methodologies are applicable to both single-channel and dual-channel microarrays. For the data sets considered, estimating prediction error by cross validation demonstrates that empirical Bayes methods based on hierarchical models tend to outperform algorithms based on selecting genes by their fold changes or by non-hierarchical model-selection criteria. (The latter two approaches have comparable

Hierarchical ordering with partial pairwise hierarchical relationships on the macaque brain data sets.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Woosang Lim

Full Text Available Hierarchical organizations of information processing in the brain networks have been known to exist and widely studied. To find proper hierarchical structures in the macaque brain, the traditional methods need the entire pairwise hierarchical relationships between cortical areas. In this paper, we present a new method that discovers hierarchical structures of macaque brain networks by using partial information of pairwise hierarchical relationships. Our method uses a graph-based manifold learning to exploit inherent relationship, and computes pseudo distances of hierarchical levels for every pair of cortical areas. Then, we compute hierarchy levels of all cortical areas by minimizing the sum of squared hierarchical distance errors with the hierarchical information of few cortical areas. We evaluate our method on the macaque brain data sets whose true hierarchical levels are known as the FV91 model. The experimental results show that hierarchy levels computed by our method are similar to the FV91 model, and its errors are much smaller than the errors of hierarchical clustering approaches.

Bay-scale population structure in coastal Atlantic cod in Labrador and Newfoundland, Canada

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruzzante, D.E.; Wroblewski, J.S.; Taggart, C.T.

2000-01-01

Polymorphisms at five microsatellite DNA loci provide evidence that Atlantic cod Gadus morhua inhabiting Gilbert Bay, Labrador are genetically distinguishable from offshore cod on the north- east Newfoundland shelf and from inshore cod in Trinity Bay, Newfoundland. Antifreeze activity in the blood...... of population structure suggest that important barriers to gene flow exist among five components that include two inshore (Gilbert and Trinity Bay) and three offshore cod aggregations on the north-east Newfoundland Shelf and the Grand Bank. D-A and D-SW estimates of genetic distance that involve Gilbert Bay cod...

Pose Estimation using a Hierarchical 3D Representation of Contours and Surfaces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buch, Anders Glent; Kraft, Dirk; Kämäräinen, Joni-Kristian

2013-01-01

We present a system for detecting the pose of rigid objects using texture and contour information. From a stereo image view of a scene, a sparse hierarchical scene representation is reconstructed using an early cognitive vision system. We define an object model in terms of a simple context...

Discharge, water-quality characteristics, and nutrient loads from McKay Bay, Delaney Creek, and East Bay, Tampa, Florida, 1991-1993

Science.gov (United States)

Stoker, Y.E.; Levesque, V.A.; Fritz, E.M.

1996-01-01

Nutrient enrichment in Tampa Bay has caused a decline in water quality in the estuary. Efforts to reduce the nutrient loading to Tampa Bay have resulted in improvement in water quality from 1981 to 1991. However, Tampa Bay still is onsidered enriched with nutrients. Water quality in East Bay (located at the northeastern part of Hillsborough Bay, which is an embayment in Tampa Bay) is not improving at the same rate as the rest of the bay. East Bay is the center of shipping activity in Tampa Bay and the seventh largest port in the United States. One of the primary cargoes is phosphate ore and related products such as fertilizer. The potential for nutrient loading to East Bay from shipping activities is high and has not previously been measured. Nitrogen and phosphorus loads from East Bay to Hillsborough Bay were measured during selected time periods during June 1992 through May 1993; these data were used to estimate seasonal and annual loads. These loads were evaluated to determine whether the loss of fertilizer products from shipping activities resulted in increased nutrient loading to Hillsborough Bay. Discharge was measured, and water-quality samples were collected at the head of East Bay (exiting McKay Bay), and at the mouth of East Bay. Discharge and nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations for the period June 1992 through May 1993 were used to compute loads. Discharges from McKay Bay, Delaney Creek, and East Bay are highly variable because of the effect of tide. Flow patterns during discharge measurements generally were unidirectional in McKay Bay and Delaney Creek, but more complex, bidirectional patterns were observed at the mouth of East Bay. Tidally affected discharge data were digitally filtered with the Godin filter to remove the effects of tide so that residual, or net, discharge could be determined. Daily mean discharge from McKay Bay ranged from -1,900 to 2,420 cubic feet per second; from Delaney Creek, -3.8 to 162 cubic feet per second; and from East

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hana Ševčíková

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

Improved estimation of subject-level functional connectivity using full and partial correlation with empirical Bayes shrinkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Mejia, Amanda F; Nebel, Mary Beth; Barber, Anita D; Choe, Ann S; Pekar, James J; Caffo, Brian S; Lindquist, Martin A

2018-05-15

Reliability of subject-level resting-state functional connectivity (FC) is determined in part by the statistical techniques employed in its estimation. Methods that pool information across subjects to inform estimation of subject-level effects (e.g., Bayesian approaches) have been shown to enhance reliability of subject-level FC. However, fully Bayesian approaches are computationally demanding, while empirical Bayesian approaches typically rely on using repeated measures to estimate the variance components in the model. Here, we avoid the need for repeated measures by proposing a novel measurement error model for FC describing the different sources of variance and error, which we use to perform empirical Bayes shrinkage of subject-level FC towards the group average. In addition, since the traditional intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) is inappropriate for biased estimates, we propose a new reliability measure denoted the mean squared error intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC MSE ) to properly assess the reliability of the resulting (biased) estimates. We apply the proposed techniques to test-retest resting-state fMRI data on 461 subjects from the Human Connectome Project to estimate connectivity between 100 regions identified through independent components analysis (ICA). We consider both correlation and partial correlation as the measure of FC and assess the benefit of shrinkage for each measure, as well as the effects of scan duration. We find that shrinkage estimates of subject-level FC exhibit substantially greater reliability than traditional estimates across various scan durations, even for the most reliable connections and regardless of connectivity measure. Additionally, we find partial correlation reliability to be highly sensitive to the choice of penalty term, and to be generally worse than that of full correlations except for certain connections and a narrow range of penalty values. This suggests that the penalty needs to be chosen carefully

Humic Substances from Manila Bay and Bolinao Bay Sediments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elma Llaguno

1997-12-01

Full Text Available The C,H,N composition of sedimentary humic acids (HA extracted from three sites in Manila Bay and six sites in Bolinao Bay yielded H/C atomic ratios of 1.1-1.4 and N/C atomic ratios of 0.09 - 0.16. The Manila Bay HA's had lower H/C and N/C ratios compared to those from Bolinao Bay. The IR spectra showed prominent aliphatic C-H and amide I and II bands. Manila Bay HA's also had less diverse molecular composition based on the GC-MS analysis of the CuO and alkaline permanganate oxidation products of the humic acids.

Impact of communities, health, and emotional-related factors on smoking use: comparison of joint modeling of mean and dispersion and Bayes' hierarchical models on add health survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Pu, Jie; Fang, Di; Wilson, Jeffrey R

2017-02-03

The analysis of correlated binary data is commonly addressed through the use of conditional models with random effects included in the systematic component as opposed to generalized estimating equations (GEE) models that addressed the random component. Since the joint distribution of the observations is usually unknown, the conditional distribution is a natural approach. Our objective was to compare the fit of different binary models for correlated data in Tabaco use. We advocate that the joint modeling of the mean and dispersion may be at times just as adequate. We assessed the ability of these models to account for the intraclass correlation. In so doing, we concentrated on fitting logistic regression models to address smoking behaviors. Frequentist and Bayes' hierarchical models were used to predict conditional probabilities, and the joint modeling (GLM and GAM) models were used to predict marginal probabilities. These models were fitted to National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data for Tabaco use. We found that people were less likely to smoke if they had higher income, high school or higher education and religious. Individuals were more likely to smoke if they had abused drug or alcohol, spent more time on TV and video games, and been arrested. Moreover, individuals who drank alcohol early in life were more likely to be a regular smoker. Children who experienced mistreatment from their parents were more likely to use Tabaco regularly. The joint modeling of the mean and dispersion models offered a flexible and meaningful method of addressing the intraclass correlation. They do not require one to identify random effects nor distinguish from one level of the hierarchy to the other. Moreover, once one can identify the significant random effects, one can obtain similar results to the random coefficient models. We found that the set of marginal models accounting for extravariation through the additional dispersion submodel produced

Estimates of vertical velocities and eddy coefficients in the Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Varkey, M.J.; Sastry, J.S.

Vertical velocities and eddy coefficients in the intermediate depths of the Bay of Bengal are calculated from mean hydrographic data for 300 miles-squares. The linear current density (sigma- O) versus log-depth plots show steady balance between...

Use of excess 210Pb and 228Th to estimate rates of sediment accumulation and bioturbation in Port Phillip Bay, Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hancock, G.J.; Hunter, J.R.

1999-01-01

Rates of sediment accumulation, sediment mixing and depositional particle fluxes were estimated by use of excess 210 Pb and 228 Th. In central Port Phillip Bay, there was a rapidly mixed surface layer and two layers of different mixing rates at 2-20 cm and 2145 cm depths. When the sediment profiles of excess 210 Pb and 228 Th were combined and diffusive mixing was assumed, the sediment accumulation rate in the 2-20 cm layer was constrained to be -1 . The mixing coefficient in the 2-20 cm layer was 5.0 ± 0.1 cm 2 year -1 . Hence, mixing rather than sedimentation governs the distribution of 210 Pb and 228 Th in the surficial 20 cm. Below 20 cm, the different mixing regime may be due to the dominance of deposit-feeders at these depths. Evidence for bioturbation to a depth of 50 cm was obtained from profiles of excess 210 Pb and 228 Ra deficiency. The mean residence time of particles in the central bay water column was 10 ± 2 days (a normalized depositional particle flux of 0.16 ± 0.02 g cm -2 year -1 ). This flux is three times the upper estimate of the sediment accumulation rate, indicating that most of the suspended particulate matter in the water column is resuspended bottom sediment. Copyright (1997) CSIRO Publishing

Multi-band algorithms for the estimation of chlorophyll concentration in the Chesapeake Bay

KAUST Repository

Gilerson, Alexander

2015-10-14

Standard blue-green ratio algorithms do not usually work well in turbid productive waters because of the contamination of the blue and green bands by CDOM absorption and scattering by non-algal particles. One of the alternative approaches is based on the two- or three band ratio algorithms in the red/NIR part of the spectrum, which require 665, 708, 753 nm bands (or similar) and which work well in various waters all over the world. The critical 708 nm band for these algorithms is not available on MODIS and VIIRS sensors, which limits applications of this approach. We report on another approach where a combination of the 745nm band with blue-green-red bands was the basis for the new algorithms. A multi-band algorithm which includes ratios Rrs(488)/Rrs(551)and Rrs(671)/Rrs(745) and two band algorithm based on Rrs671/Rrs745 ratio were developed with the main focus on the Chesapeake Bay (USA) waters. These algorithms were tested on the specially developed synthetic datasets, well representing the main relationships between water parameters in the Bay taken from the NASA NOMAD database and available literature, on the field data collected by our group during a 2013 campaign in the Bay, as well as NASA SeaBASS data from the other group and on matchups between satellite imagery and water parameters measured by the Chesapeake Bay program. Our results demonstrate that the coefficient of determination can be as high as R2 > 0.90 for the new algorithms in comparison with R2 = 0.6 for the standard OC3V algorithm on the same field dataset. Substantial improvement was also achieved by applying a similar approach (inclusion of Rrs(667)/Rrs(753) ratio) for MODIS matchups. Results for VIIRS are not yet conclusive. © (2015) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

Ecological risk assessment of TBT in Ise Bay.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, Joji; Yonezawa, Yoshitaka; Nakata, Kisaburo; Horiguchi, Fumio

2009-02-01

An ecological risk assessment of tributyltin (TBT) in Ise Bay was conducted using the margin of exposure (MOE) method. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect the survival, growth and reproduction of marine organisms. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Ise Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. Estimated MOEs for marine organisms for 1990 and 2008 were approximately 0.1-2.0 and over 100 respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse effects. The chemical fate model predicts a much longer persistence of TBT in sediments than in the water column. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the harmful effects of TBT on benthic organisms.

Empirical Bayes Approaches to Multivariate Fuzzy Partitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodbury, Max A.; Manton, Kenneth G.

1991-01-01

An empirical Bayes-maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented for the application of fuzzy partition models in describing high dimensional discrete response data. The model describes individuals in terms of partial membership in multiple latent categories that represent bounded discrete spaces. (SLD)

Evaluating Bay Area Methane Emission Inventory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fischer, Marc [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Jeong, Seongeun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2016-03-01

As a regulatory agency, evaluating and improving estimates of methane (CH4) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area is an area of interest to the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD). Currently, regional, state, and federal agencies generally estimate methane emissions using bottom-up inventory methods that rely on a combination of activity data, emission factors, biogeochemical models and other information. Recent atmospheric top-down measurement estimates of methane emissions for the US as a whole (e.g., Miller et al., 2013) and in California (e.g., Jeong et al., 2013; Peischl et al., 2013) have shown inventories underestimate total methane emissions by ~ 50% in many areas of California, including the SF Bay Area (Fairley and Fischer, 2015). The goal of this research is to provide information to help improve methane emission estimates for the San Francisco Bay Area. The research effort builds upon our previous work that produced methane emission maps for each of the major source sectors as part of the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) project (http://calgem.lbl.gov/prior_emission.html; Jeong et al., 2012; Jeong et al., 2013; Jeong et al., 2014). Working with BAAQMD, we evaluate the existing inventory in light of recently published literature and revise the CALGEM CH4 emission maps to provide better specificity for BAAQMD. We also suggest further research that will improve emission estimates. To accomplish the goals, we reviewed the current BAAQMD inventory, and compared its method with those from the state inventory from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the CALGEM inventory, and recent published literature. We also updated activity data (e.g., livestock statistics) to reflect recent changes and to better represent spatial information. Then, we produced spatially explicit CH4 emission estimates on the 1-km modeling grid used by BAAQMD. We present the detailed activity data, methods and derived emission maps by sector

Organic carbon balance and net ecosystem metabolism in Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Kemp, W.M.; Smith, E.M.; Marvin-DiPasquale, M.; Boynton, W.R.

1997-01-01

The major fluxes of organic carbon associated with physical transport and biological metabolism were compiled, analyzed and compared for the mainstem portion of Chesapeake Bay (USA). In addition, 5 independent methods were used to calculate the annual mean net ecosystem metabolism (NEM = production - respiration) for the integrated Bay. These methods, which employed biogeochemical models, nutrient mass-balances anti summation of individual organic carbon fluxes, yielded remarkably similar estimates, with a mean NEM of +50 g C m-2 yr-1 (?? SE = 751, which is approximately 8% of the estimated annual average gross primary production. These calculations suggest a strong cross-sectional pattern in NEM throughout the Bay, wherein net heterotrophic metabolism prevails in the pelagic zones of the main channel, while net autotrophy occurs in the littoral zones which flank the deeper central area. For computational purposes, the estuary was separated into 3 regions along the land-sea gradient: (1) the oligohaline Upper Bay (11% of total area); (2) the mesohaline Mid Bay (36% of area); and (3) the polyhaline Lower Bay (53% of area). A distinct regional trend in NEM was observed along this salinity gradient, with net here(atrophy (NEM = 87 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Upper Bay, balanced metabolism in the Mid Bay and net autotrophy (NEM = +92 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Lower Bay. As a consequence of overall net autotrophy, the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total organic nitrogen (TON) changed from DIN:TON = 5.1 for riverine inputs to DIN:TON = 0.04 for water exported to the ocean. A striking feature of this organic C mass-balance was the relative dominance of biologically mediated metabolic fluxes compared to physical transport fluxes. The overall ratio of physical TOC inputs (1) to biotic primary production (P) was 0.08 for the whole estuary, but varied dramatically from 2.3 in the Upper Bay to 0.03 in the Mid and Lower Bay regions. Similarly, ecosystem respiration was

Robust Real-Time Music Transcription with a Compositional Hierarchical Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pesek, Matevž; Leonardis, Aleš; Marolt, Matija

2017-01-01

The paper presents a new compositional hierarchical model for robust music transcription. Its main features are unsupervised learning of a hierarchical representation of input data, transparency, which enables insights into the learned representation, as well as robustness and speed which make it suitable for real-world and real-time use. The model consists of multiple layers, each composed of a number of parts. The hierarchical nature of the model corresponds well to hierarchical structures in music. The parts in lower layers correspond to low-level concepts (e.g. tone partials), while the parts in higher layers combine lower-level representations into more complex concepts (tones, chords). The layers are learned in an unsupervised manner from music signals. Parts in each layer are compositions of parts from previous layers based on statistical co-occurrences as the driving force of the learning process. In the paper, we present the model's structure and compare it to other hierarchical approaches in the field of music information retrieval. We evaluate the model's performance for the multiple fundamental frequency estimation. Finally, we elaborate on extensions of the model towards other music information retrieval tasks.

Statistical inference an integrated approach

CERN Document Server

Migon, Helio S; Louzada, Francisco

2014-01-01

Introduction Information The concept of probability Assessing subjective probabilities An example Linear algebra and probability Notation Outline of the bookElements of Inference Common statistical modelsLikelihood-based functions Bayes theorem Exchangeability Sufficiency and exponential family Parameter elimination Prior Distribution Entirely subjective specification Specification through functional forms Conjugacy with the exponential family Non-informative priors Hierarchical priors Estimation Introduction to decision theoryBayesian point estimation Classical point estimation Empirical Bayes estimation Comparison of estimators Interval estimation Estimation in the Normal model Approximating Methods The general problem of inference Optimization techniquesAsymptotic theory Other analytical approximations Numerical integration methods Simulation methods Hypothesis Testing Introduction Classical hypothesis testingBayesian hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing and confidence intervalsAsymptotic tests Prediction...

Developing a Clustering-Based Empirical Bayes Analysis Method for Hotspot Identification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajie Zou

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hotspot identification (HSID is a critical part of network-wide safety evaluations. Typical methods for ranking sites are often rooted in using the Empirical Bayes (EB method to estimate safety from both observed crash records and predicted crash frequency based on similar sites. The performance of the EB method is highly related to the selection of a reference group of sites (i.e., roadway segments or intersections similar to the target site from which safety performance functions (SPF used to predict crash frequency will be developed. As crash data often contain underlying heterogeneity that, in essence, can make them appear to be generated from distinct subpopulations, methods are needed to select similar sites in a principled manner. To overcome this possible heterogeneity problem, EB-based HSID methods that use common clustering methodologies (e.g., mixture models, K-means, and hierarchical clustering to select “similar” sites for building SPFs are developed. Performance of the clustering-based EB methods is then compared using real crash data. Here, HSID results, when computed on Texas undivided rural highway cash data, suggest that all three clustering-based EB analysis methods are preferred over the conventional statistical methods. Thus, properly classifying the road segments for heterogeneous crash data can further improve HSID accuracy.

AutoBayes Program Synthesis System Users Manual

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, Johann; Jafari, Hamed; Pressburger, Tom; Denney, Ewen; Buntine, Wray; Fischer, Bernd

2008-01-01

Program synthesis is the systematic, automatic construction of efficient executable code from high-level declarative specifications. AutoBayes is a fully automatic program synthesis system for the statistical data analysis domain; in particular, it solves parameter estimation problems. It has seen many successful applications at NASA and is currently being used, for example, to analyze simulation results for Orion. The input to AutoBayes is a concise description of a data analysis problem composed of a parameterized statistical model and a goal that is a probability term involving parameters and input data. The output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code computing the values for those parameters that maximize the probability term. AutoBayes can solve many subproblems symbolically rather than having to rely on numeric approximation algorithms, thus yielding effective, efficient, and compact code. Statistical analysis is faster and more reliable, because effort can be focused on model development and validation rather than manual development of solution algorithms and code.

Hierarchical modularity in human brain functional networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Meunier

2009-10-01

Full Text Available The idea that complex systems have a hierarchical modular organization originates in the early 1960s and has recently attracted fresh support from quantitative studies of large scale, real-life networks. Here we investigate the hierarchical modular (or “modules-within-modules” decomposition of human brain functional networks, measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI in 18 healthy volunteers under no-task or resting conditions. We used a customized template to extract networks with more than 1800 regional nodes, and we applied a fast algorithm to identify nested modular structure at several hierarchical levels. We used mutual information, 0 < I < 1, to estimate the similarity of community structure of networks in different subjects, and to identify the individual network that is most representative of the group. Results show that human brain functional networks have a hierarchical modular organization with a fair degree of similarity between subjects, I=0.63. The largest 5 modules at the highest level of the hierarchy were medial occipital, lateral occipital, central, parieto-frontal and fronto-temporal systems; occipital modules demonstrated less sub-modular organization than modules comprising regions of multimodal association cortex. Connector nodes and hubs, with a key role in inter-modular connectivity, were also concentrated in association cortical areas. We conclude that methods are available for hierarchical modular decomposition of large numbers of high resolution brain functional networks using computationally expedient algorithms. This could enable future investigations of Simon's original hypothesis that hierarchy or near-decomposability of physical symbol systems is a critical design feature for their fast adaptivity to changing environmental conditions.

Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2012-01-01

A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

Mixing Bayes and empirical Bayes inference to anticipate the realization of engineering concerns about variant system designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quigley, John; Walls, Lesley

2011-01-01

Mixing Bayes and Empirical Bayes inference provides reliability estimates for variant system designs by using relevant failure data - observed and anticipated - about engineering changes arising due to modification and innovation. A coherent inference framework is proposed to predict the realization of engineering concerns during product development so that informed decisions can be made about the system design and the analysis conducted to prove reliability. The proposed method involves combining subjective prior distributions for the number of engineering concerns with empirical priors for the non-parametric distribution of time to realize these concerns in such a way that we can cross-tabulate classes of concerns to failure events within time partitions at an appropriate level of granularity. To support efficient implementation, a computationally convenient hypergeometric approximation is developed for the counting distributions appropriate to our underlying stochastic model. The accuracy of our approximation over first-order alternatives is examined, and demonstrated, through an evaluation experiment. An industrial application illustrates model implementation and shows how estimates can be updated using information arising during development test and analysis.

The numbers of ringed seals (Phoca hispida in Baffin Bay and associated waters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael C S Kingsley

1998-06-01

Full Text Available The size of the population of ringed seals (Phoca hispida inhabiting Baffin Bay and associated waters was estimated by two methods. An approximate model of the energetics of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus estimated an energetic need of about 16,000 MJ/bear per year. Modelled estimates of the energetic yield of a ringed seal population showed that a stable standing population of 140-170 ringed seals per bear would be needed to provide that much energy, assuming that all mortalities were due to polar bear predation. This result was sensitive to assumptions about the Field Metabolic Rate (FMR of the bears and the energetic yield of individual ringed seals, but less sensitive to assumptions about relative incidence of predation on different age classes of seal or the age structure of the polar bear population. Estimated sizes of polar bear populations in Baffin Bay and associated waters (total about 4,025, and of the standing population needed to support an estimated hunter kill of 100,000 yielded a population estimate of, very roughly, 1.2 million ringed seals. Estimates of ice areas and of the density of hauled out seals from aerial surveys were used to generate another approximate figure for the ringed seal population, which was about the same. The density of seals in the pack-ice area of Baffin Bay, which is imperfectly known, has a large influence on the latter estimate.

Seasonal variations and sources of sedimentary organic carbon in Tokyo Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kubo, Atsushi; Kanda, Jota

2017-01-01

Total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) contents, their stable C and N isotope ratio (δ 13 C and δ 15 N), and chlorophyll a ([Chl a] sed ) of surface sediments were investigated monthly to identify the seasonal variations and sources of organic matter in Tokyo Bay. The sedimentary TOC (TOC sed ) and TN (TN sed ) contents, and the sedimentary δ 13 C and δ 15 N (δ 13 C sed and δ 15 N sed ) values were higher in summer than other seasons. The seasonal variations were controlled by high primary production in the water column and hypoxic water in the bottom water during summer. The fraction of terrestrial and marine derived organic matter was estimated by Bayesian mixing model using stable isotope data and TOC/TN ratio. Surface sediments in Tokyo Bay are dominated by marine derived organic matter, which accounts for about 69 ± 5% of TOC sed . - Highlights: • High values of sedimentary organic carbon and nitrogen were observed in summer. • Surface sediments in Tokyo Bay were dominated by marine derived organic matter which was estimated by Bayesian mixing model. • The most amount of terrestrial POC was deposited and degraded in Tokyo Bay before being discharged to the open ocean.

Water renewal in Montevideo's bay: a two compartments model for tritium kinetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suarez-Antola, Roberto

2013-01-01

During field work about dynamics and renewal of water in Montevideo's Bay, 100 Ci of tritiated water were evenly distributed in the north-east region of the bay, by a continuous injection of a solution, during 5 hours, from a 200 litres tank, using a peristaltic pump. The whole bay was divided in 20 concentration cells, taking into account available bathymetric charts and corrections from field data obtained in situ. Tritium concentrations (activities per unit volume) and other relevant parameters (temperature, electrical conductivity, etc.) were measured in vertical profiles during three weeks, in the mid-point of each cell, first twice a day and the on a daily basis. Remnant total tritium activity was estimated from cells volumes and midpoint cells activity concentrations. Consistency checks were done. A one compartment model was used to estimate a global renewal time of circa 29 hours. However, the details of the measured tritium kinetics, a careful consideration of bathymetric data, water movements in a tidal environment (measured with drogues, fluorescent tracers and current meters), as well as the results of computer fluid dynamics modelling (in depth averaged) suggests that the bay can be meaningfully divided in two main compartments: a North-East and a South-West compartment. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (1) to describe the construction of a two compartments model for water renewal in Montevideo's Bay, (2) to apply experimental data of tritium kinetics to estimate the parameters of the model, and (3) to discuss the validity of the model and its practical applicability. The meaning of the renewal time of each compartment and its relation with the measured tritium kinetics in each cell is discussed. The perturbations in water circulation and renewal produced by civil works already done or the perturbations that could be expected due to civil works to be done, in relation with Montevideo's harbour, is discussed. The tracer model, jointly with other

Tectonic framework of the Hanoe Bay area, southern Baltic Sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wannaes, K.O.; Floden, T.

1994-06-01

The tectonic framework and the general geologic development of the Hanoe Bay, from the Scanian coast in the west to south of Oeland in the east, has been investigated by means of reflection seismic methods. The Hanoe Bay is in this paper subdivided into four areas of different geologic settings. These are: 1) The Hanoe Bay slope, which forms a southward dipping continuation of the rigid Blekinge coastal plain. 2) The eastward dipping Kalmarsund Slope, which southwards from Oeland forms the western part of the Paleozoic Baltic Syneclise. 3) The Mesozoic Hanoe Bay Halfgraben, which forms the central and southern parts of the Hanoe Bay. The ongoing subsidence of the Halfgraben is estimated to be in the order of 20-60 m during the Quaternary. 4) The Yoldia Structural Element, which forms a deformed, tilted and possibly rotated block of Paleozoic bedrock located east of the Hanoe Bay Halfgraben. Two tectonic phases dominate the post-Paleozoic development of the Hanoe Bay, these are: 1) The Early Kimmerian phase, which initiated subsidence and reactivated older faults. 2) The Late Cretaceous phase, which is the main subsidence phase of the Hanoe Bay Halfgraben. The tectonic fault pattern of the Hanoe Bay is dominated by three directions, i.e. NW-SE, NE-SW and WNW-ESE. The two main tectonic elements of the area are the Kullen-Christiansoe Ridge System (NW-SE) and the Bornholm Gat Tectonic Zone (NE-SW). Sinistral strike-slip movements in order of 2-3 km are interpreted to have occurred along the Bornholm Gat Tectonic Zone during the late Cretaceous. 20 refs, 19 figs

33 CFR 100.919 - International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. 100.919 Section 100.919 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF... Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. (a) Regulated Area. A regulated area is established to include all...

Causal Bayes Model of Mathematical Competence in Kindergarten

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Božidar Tepeš

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper authors define mathematical competences in the kindergarten. The basic objective was to measure the mathematical competences or mathematical knowledge, skills and abilities in mathematical education. Mathematical competences were grouped in the following areas: Arithmetic and Geometry. Statistical set consisted of 59 children, 65 to 85 months of age, from the Kindergarten Milan Sachs from Zagreb. The authors describe 13 variables for measuring mathematical competences. Five measuring variables were described for the geometry, and eight measuring variables for the arithmetic. Measuring variables are tasks which children solved with the evaluated results. By measuring mathematical competences the authors make causal Bayes model using free software Tetrad 5.2.1-3. Software makes many causal Bayes models and authors as experts chose the model of the mathematical competences in the kindergarten. Causal Bayes model describes five levels for mathematical competences. At the end of the modeling authors use Bayes estimator. In the results, authors describe by causal Bayes model of mathematical competences, causal effect mathematical competences or how intervention on some competences cause other competences. Authors measure mathematical competences with their expectation as random variables. When expectation of competences was greater, competences improved. Mathematical competences can be improved with intervention on causal competences. Levels of mathematical competences and the result of intervention on mathematical competences can help mathematical teachers.

Water quality and discharge data for St. Joseph Bay, Florida, 1997-98

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, M.P.; Franklin, M.A.

1999-01-01

Historical data were compiled on water quality and water levels for the St. Joseph Bay area to assess quality of possible sources of land-derived water into the Bay. Ground-water quality data were compiled from Florida Department of Environmental Protection and surface-water quality data were compiled from U.S.Geological Survey files. Water-quality and water-level data were measured during two sample collection periods in October 1997 and March 1998 to determine water-quality and discharge rates in St. Joseph Bay under two sets of flow conditions. Measurements in the Bay included water level, temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Median pH in water from the surficial, intermediate and Floridan aquifer systems ranged from 4.8 to 7.8, and median specific conductance values were less than 500 microsiemens per centimeter. Median nutrient concentrations-- nitrate plus nitrite, ammonia and phosphorus--in the three aquifers were less than 0.5 milligrams per liter. The median pH was 7.0 and the median specific conductance was 81 microsiemens per centimeter for two samples from the Chipola River distribution canal. Water level data were obtained for several wells near St. Joseph Bay but only two wells yielded sufficient data to plot hydrographs. Measurements in St. Joseph Bay during the October and March collection periods were similar for pH and turbidity but differed for temperature, specific conductance and dissolved oxygen. The median temperature was 20.6 degrees Celsius in October and 15.4 degrees Celsius in March, median specific conductance was 39,500 microsiemens per centimeter in October and 43,300 microsiemens per centimeter in March, and median dissolved oxygen was 7.6 milligrams per liter in October and 8.3 milligrams per liter in March. The range in water levels over a tidal cycle in St. Joseph Bay on October 29, 1997 was about 1 foot. During a 24-hour tidal cycle on October 29, 1997, estimated hourly discharge varied from

Load estimation and assessment of land-based pollution for Quanzhou Bay and their relevance to the Total Quantity Control of Pollutants Discharged into the Sea (TQCPS) Program in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, W. L.; Yang, S. Y.; Wang, J.; Xiao, J. M.; Lu, X. X.; Lin, J.; Huang, P.; Cai, M. G.

2015-12-01

The Total Quantity Control of Pollutants Discharged into the Sea (TQCPS) Program belonged to the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean in China, launched in 2008. As one of the most important and typical demonstration cases of the TQCPS Program, a full investigation of the land-based pollutions discharges around Quanzhou Bay, China developed the total input for three main environmental factors (NH3-N, TP, COD) which were estimated and quantified in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Combined with the trend of seawater quality changes in Quanzhou Bay in the same periods, the effects of the program's implementation were then evaluated. On the whole, by using the basic survey data and export coefficient method, the total amounts of NH3-N, TP and COD discharged into the bay were estimated to be approximately 888.3, 130.6 and 14527.4 t/a in 2008, and 1518.6, 558.8 and 19986.7 t/a in 2012, respectively, where the percentage of the discharge from domestic sources (46.5% in 2008 and 45.2% in 2012) was generally higher than that from the other sources. Based on the characteristic of geography and administrative division, the land areas around the bay were divided into three parts: the south coast region (SCR), the west coast region (WCR), and the north coast region (NCR). The SCR and WCR accounted for 59.2 and 35.4% of the COD loads, and 49.2 and 48.0% of NH3-N loads in 2008. The NCR contributed less of the industrial pollution, but most to domestic pollution (54.1%), followed by 26.2% in the SCR in 2012. The contributions of the discharge from different land areas to the pollution of Quanzhou Bay were found to be differed in 2008 and 2012. Due to the difference in the levels of the economic development among these three areas, the discharge of pollutants from the north coast was much lower than that from the other two parts in 2008; however, following our suggestion of the moderation and optimization of the industrial distribution and the sewage

Acoustic surveys for juvenile anchovy in the Bay of Biscay: Abundance estimate as an indicator of the next year's recruitment and spatial distribution patterns

KAUST Repository

Boyra, Guillermo

2013-08-16

A series of acoustic surveys (JUVENA) began in 2003 targeting juvenile anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. A specific methodology was designed for mapping and estimating juvenile abundance annually, four months after the spawning season. After eight years of the survey, a consistent picture of the spatial pattern of the juvenile anchovy has emerged. Juveniles show a vertical and horizontal distribution pattern that depends on size. The younger individuals are found isolated from other species in waters closer to the surface, mainly off the shelf within the mid-southern region of the bay. The largest juveniles are usually found deeper and closer to the shore in the company of adult anchovy and other pelagic species. In these eight years, the survey has covered a wide range of juvenile abundances, and the estimates show a significant positive relationship between the juvenile biomasses and the one-year-old recruits of the following year. This demonstrates that the JUVENA index provides an early indication of the strength of next year\\'s recruitment to the fishery and can therefore be used to improve the management advice for the fishery of this short-lived species. © 2013 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

Acoustic surveys for juvenile anchovy in the Bay of Biscay: Abundance estimate as an indicator of the next year's recruitment and spatial distribution patterns

KAUST Repository

Boyra, Guillermo; Martí nez, U.; Cotano, Unai; Begoñ a Santos, Maria; Irigoien, Xabier; Uriarte, André s

2013-01-01

A series of acoustic surveys (JUVENA) began in 2003 targeting juvenile anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. A specific methodology was designed for mapping and estimating juvenile abundance annually, four months after the spawning season. After eight years of the survey, a consistent picture of the spatial pattern of the juvenile anchovy has emerged. Juveniles show a vertical and horizontal distribution pattern that depends on size. The younger individuals are found isolated from other species in waters closer to the surface, mainly off the shelf within the mid-southern region of the bay. The largest juveniles are usually found deeper and closer to the shore in the company of adult anchovy and other pelagic species. In these eight years, the survey has covered a wide range of juvenile abundances, and the estimates show a significant positive relationship between the juvenile biomasses and the one-year-old recruits of the following year. This demonstrates that the JUVENA index provides an early indication of the strength of next year's recruitment to the fishery and can therefore be used to improve the management advice for the fishery of this short-lived species. © 2013 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

2017-02-01

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

Tidal Mixing Box Submodel for Tampa Bay: Calibration of Tidal Exchange Flows with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST)

Science.gov (United States)

In the mid-1990s the Tampa Bay Estuary Program proposed a nutrient reduction strategy focused on improving water clarity to promote seagrass expansion within Tampa Bay. A System Dynamics Model is being developed to evaluate spatially and temporally explicit impacts of nutrient r...

Data supporting study of Ecosystem Metabolism in Pensacola Bay estuary

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — These files house the data collected during 2013 in lower Pensacola Bay. The data were used to estimate aquatic primary production and respiration. This dataset is...

Potential climate change impacts on a tropical estuary: Hilo Bay, Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Adolf, J.; LaPinta, J.; Marusek, J.; Pascoe, K.; Pugh, A.

2016-02-01

Hilo Bay is a tropical estuarine ecosystem on the northeast (windward) coast of Hawai`i Island that is potentially vulnerable to climate change effects mediated through elevated water temperatures and/or changing rainfall patterns that impact river and groundwater fluxes. Here, we document trends in water temperature, river flow and phytoplankton dynamics in Hilo Bay. Hilo Bay is fed by two major rivers, Wailuku and Honoli`i, both of which have shown long term declines in output over their 85 and 38 year monitoring periods (USGS), respectively. Time series of groundwater inputs to Hilo Bay do not exist, but the average estimated rate rivals that of average river inputs. Daily average Hilo Bay water temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.35 degrees C per year (p Hilo Bay water quality buoy began in 2010, with the warmest temperatures on record recorded Sept 2015. Salinity did not show a trend over this same time period. Phytoplankton showed a pronounced seasonal cycle in Hilo Bay with a long term average of 3.7 mg m-3 and dominance by diatoms that exploit the co-availability of silica and nitrate in this environment. On shorter time scales of days to Hilo Bay salinity, temperature and phytoplankton biomass. Coincidental atmospheric warming, SST warming in the adjacent North Pacific ocean, and declining river flows will likely work together to result in elevated SST in Hilo Bay if observed trends continue. The El Nino event that started this year is expected to exacerbate this warming through reduce river flow and warmer regional SST.

Wind effect on salt transport variability in the Bay of Bengal

Science.gov (United States)

Sandeep, K. K.; Pant, V.

2017-12-01

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) exhibits large spatial variability in sea surface salinity (SSS) pattern caused by its unique hydrological, meteorological and oceanographical characteristics. This SSS variability is largely controlled by the seasonally reversing monsoon winds and the associated currents. Further, the BoB receives substantial freshwater inputs through excess precipitation over evaporation and river discharge. Rivers like Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Krishna, Godavari, and Irawwady discharge annually a freshwater volume in range between 1.5 x 1012 and 1.83 x 1013 m3 into the bay. A major volume of this freshwater input to the bay occurs during the southwest monsoon (June-September) period. In the present study, a relative role of winds in the SSS variability in the bay is investigated by using an eddy-resolving three dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) numerical model. The model is configured with realistic bathymetry, coastline of study region and forced with daily climatology of atmospheric variables. River discharges from the major rivers are distributed in the model grid points representing their respective geographic locations. Salt transport estimate from the model simulation for realistic case are compared with the standard reference datasets. Further, different experiments were carried out with idealized surface wind forcing representing the normal, low, high, and very high wind speed conditions in the bay while retaining the realistic daily varying directions for all the cases. The experimental simulations exhibit distinct dispersal patterns of the freshwater plume and SSS in different experiments in response to the idealized winds. Comparison of the meridional and zonal surface salt transport estimated for each experiment showed strong seasonality with varying magnitude in the bay with a maximum spatial and temporal variability in the western and northern parts of the BoB.

Long-term morphologic evolution of the Hangzhou Bay, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, W.; Zhijun, D.; Hualiang, X.

2013-12-01

Estuaries are the most productive ecosystems of coastal zones in the world, which are significant to mankind as places of navigation, recreation and commerce as well as extensive and diverse habitats for wildlife. However, most estuary environments in the world had occurred greatly changes in recent decades. These estuaries have suffered from impacts of forcing factors including wave climate, mean sea level change and storm surge, especial to the intensive human activities such as training wall construction, channel dredging, sand mining and dam constructions. Thus, there have been increasing concerns about estuary environment changes under effects of different factors. Riverine loads into the Changjiang Estuary have declined dramatically with the construction of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) in 2003. The morphological evolution of the Hangzhou bay that located the southern proximity of the Yangtze estuary starts to attract increasing attentions due to most material of the Hangzhou bay received from Yangtze estuary. In this paper, historical bathymetric charts were digitized and analyzed within a GIS to provide quantitative estimate of changes in volumes in different regions below 0 m elevation. The results show that Hangzhou bay has experienced a major loss in estuarine volume of about 15% with annual mean sediment deposition rate of 80 million m3/a during the last 75 years. However, there is a large-scale spatial adjustment in Hangzhou bay: Bathymetric changes of the Hangzhou bay can be rapidly shifted within the range of 8-10 classes. Volume of the Jinshanzui upstream of the Hangzhou bay has obviously decreased in the last 75 years, especially during 2003-2008. However, Volume of the southern Hangzhou bay has experienced slowly decrease with minor deposition. The northern Hangzhou bay had largely volume changes with rapidly decrease during 1931-1981, and drastically increase since 2003. Further analysis of the bathymetric data relating to possible factors indicates

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip; Cate, Karen; Lee, Alan G.

2010-01-01

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Nuttle, William K.; Fourqurean, James W.; Cosby, Bernard J.; Zieman, Joseph C.; Robblee, Michael B.

2000-01-01

An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long‐term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central

A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

2017-01-01

Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

Science.gov (United States)

Burgman, M.A.; Wintle, B.A.; Thompson, C.A.; Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Ben-Haim, Y.

2010-01-01

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.

Hierarchical Network Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomadsen, Tommy

2005-01-01

Communication networks are immensely important today, since both companies and individuals use numerous services that rely on them. This thesis considers the design of hierarchical (communication) networks. Hierarchical networks consist of layers of networks and are well-suited for coping...... with changing and increasing demands. Two-layer networks consist of one backbone network, which interconnects cluster networks. The clusters consist of nodes and links, which connect the nodes. One node in each cluster is a hub node, and the backbone interconnects the hub nodes of each cluster and thus...... the clusters. The design of hierarchical networks involves clustering of nodes, hub selection, and network design, i.e. selection of links and routing of ows. Hierarchical networks have been in use for decades, but integrated design of these networks has only been considered for very special types of networks...

77 FR 2972 - Thunder Bay Power Company, Thunder Bay Power, LLC, et al.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-20

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Thunder Bay Power Company, Thunder Bay Power, LLC, et al.; Notice of Application for Transfer of Licenses, and Soliciting Comments and Motions To Intervene Thunder Bay Power Company Project No. 2404-095 Thunder Bay Power, LLC Midwest Hydro, Inc...

Semiparametric Bernstein–von Mises for the error standard deviation

OpenAIRE

Jonge, de, R.; Zanten, van, J.H.

2013-01-01

We study Bayes procedures for nonparametric regression problems with Gaussian errors, giving conditions under which a Bernstein–von Mises result holds for the marginal posterior distribution of the error standard deviation. We apply our general results to show that a single Bayes procedure using a hierarchical spline-based prior on the regression function and an independent prior on the error variance, can simultaneously achieve adaptive, rate-optimal estimation of a smooth, multivariate regr...

Safety assessment of a dry storage container drop into irradiated fuel bays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parlatan, Y.; Oh, D.; Arguner, D.; Lei, Q.M.; Kulpa, T.; Bayoumi, M.H.

2004-01-01

In Pickering nuclear stations, Dry Storage Containers (DSCs) are employed to transfer used (irradiated) fuel from an irradiated fuel bay to a dry storage facility for interim storage. Each DSC is wet-loaded in the bay water with 4 fuel modules containing up to a total of 384 used fuel bundles that have been out of the reactor core for at least 10 years. Once the DSC is fully loaded, the crane in the bay raises the DSC for spray-wash such that the bottom of the DSC is never more than 2 m above the bay water surface. This paper presents a safety assessment of consequences of an unlikely event that a fully loaded DSC is accidentally dropped into an irradiated fuel bay from the highest possible elevation. Experiments and analyses performed elsewhere show that the DSC drop-generated shock waves will not threaten the structural integrity of an irradiated fuel bay. Therefore, this assessment only assesses the potential damage to the spent fuel bundles in the bay due to pressure transients generated by an accidental DSC drop. A bounding estimate approach has been used to calculate the upper limit of the pressure pulse and the resulting static and dynamic stresses on the fuel sheath. The bounding calculations and relevant experimental results demonstrate that an accidental drop of a fully loaded DSC into an irradiated fuel bay will not cause additional failures of the main fuel inventories stored in modules in the bay water, thus no consequential release of fission products into the bay water. (author)

Multicollinearity in hierarchical linear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Han; Jiang, Shanhe; Land, Kenneth C

2015-09-01

This study investigates an ill-posed problem (multicollinearity) in Hierarchical Linear Models from both the data and the model perspectives. We propose an intuitive, effective approach to diagnosing the presence of multicollinearity and its remedies in this class of models. A simulation study demonstrates the impacts of multicollinearity on coefficient estimates, associated standard errors, and variance components at various levels of multicollinearity for finite sample sizes typical in social science studies. We further investigate the role multicollinearity plays at each level for estimation of coefficient parameters in terms of shrinkage. Based on these analyses, we recommend a top-down method for assessing multicollinearity in HLMs that first examines the contextual predictors (Level-2 in a two-level model) and then the individual predictors (Level-1) and uses the results for data collection, research problem redefinition, model re-specification, variable selection and estimation of a final model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Saldanha Bay, South Africa II: estimating bay productivity | Pitcher ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Autotrophic communities, where organic matter is produced in excess of respiratory demand, were confined on average to the upper 5.8 m of the water column, and often excluded the bulk of the phytoplankton community, where light limitation is considered to lead to heterotrophic community metabolism. Estimates of ...

Biomass and Carbon Stocks of Sofala Bay Mangrove Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Almeida A. Sitoe

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Mangroves could be key ecosystems in strategies addressing the mitigation of climate changes through carbon storage. However, little is known regarding the carbon stocks of these ecosystems, particularly below-ground. This study was carried out in the mangrove forests of Sofala Bay, Central Mozambique, with the aim of quantifying carbon stocks of live and dead plant and soil components. The methods followed the procedures developed by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR for mangrove forests. In this study, we developed a general allometric equation to estimate individual tree biomass and soil carbon content (up to 100 cm depth. We estimated the carbon in the whole mangrove ecosystem of Sofala Bay, including dead trees, wood debris, herbaceous, pneumatophores, litter and soil. The general allometric equation for live trees derived was [Above-ground tree dry weight (kg = 3.254 × exp(0.065 × DBH], root mean square error (RMSE = 4.244, and coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.89. The average total carbon storage of Sofala Bay mangrove was 218.5 Mg·ha−1, of which around 73% are stored in the soil. Mangrove conservation has the potential for REDD+ programs, especially in regions like Mozambique, which contains extensive mangrove areas with high deforestation and degradation rates.

Thatcher Bay, Washington, Nearshore Restoration Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Breems, Joel; Wyllie-Echeverria, Sandy; Grossman, Eric E.; Elliott, Joel

2009-01-01

The San Juan Archipelago, located at the confluence of the Puget Sound, the Straits of Juan de Fuca in Washington State, and the Straits of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, provides essential nearshore habitat for diverse salmonid, forage fish, and bird populations. With 408 miles of coastline, the San Juan Islands provide a significant portion of the available nearshore habitat for the greater Puget Sound and are an essential part of the regional efforts to restore Puget Sound (Puget Sound Shared Strategy 2005). The nearshore areas of the San Juan Islands provide a critical link between the terrestrial and marine environments. For this reason the focus on restoration and conservation of nearshore habitat in the San Juan Islands is of paramount importance. Wood-waste was a common by-product of historical lumber-milling operations. To date, relatively little attention has been given to the impact of historical lumber-milling operations in the San Juan Archipelago. Thatcher Bay, on Blakely Island, located near the east edge of the archipelago, is presented here as a case study on the restoration potential for a wood-waste contaminated nearshore area. Case study components include (1) a brief discussion of the history of milling operations. (2) an estimate of the location and amount of the current distribution of wood-waste at the site, (3) a preliminary examination of the impacts of wood-waste on benthic flora and fauna at the site, and (4) the presentation of several restoration alternatives for the site. The history of milling activity in Thatcher Bay began in 1879 with the construction of a mill in the southeastern part of the bay. Milling activity continued for more than 60 years, until the mill closed in 1942. Currently, the primary evidence of the historical milling operations is the presence of approximately 5,000 yd3 of wood-waste contaminated sediments. The distribution and thickness of residual wood-waste at the site was determined by using sediment

Hierarchical Spatial Concept Formation Based on Multimodal Information for Human Support Robots.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagiwara, Yoshinobu; Inoue, Masakazu; Kobayashi, Hiroyoshi; Taniguchi, Tadahiro

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hierarchical spatial concept formation method based on the Bayesian generative model with multimodal information e.g., vision, position and word information. Since humans have the ability to select an appropriate level of abstraction according to the situation and describe their position linguistically, e.g., "I am in my home" and "I am in front of the table," a hierarchical structure of spatial concepts is necessary in order for human support robots to communicate smoothly with users. The proposed method enables a robot to form hierarchical spatial concepts by categorizing multimodal information using hierarchical multimodal latent Dirichlet allocation (hMLDA). Object recognition results using convolutional neural network (CNN), hierarchical k-means clustering result of self-position estimated by Monte Carlo localization (MCL), and a set of location names are used, respectively, as features in vision, position, and word information. Experiments in forming hierarchical spatial concepts and evaluating how the proposed method can predict unobserved location names and position categories are performed using a robot in the real world. Results verify that, relative to comparable baseline methods, the proposed method enables a robot to predict location names and position categories closer to predictions made by humans. As an application example of the proposed method in a home environment, a demonstration in which a human support robot moves to an instructed place based on human speech instructions is achieved based on the formed hierarchical spatial concept.

Hierarchical Spatial Concept Formation Based on Multimodal Information for Human Support Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshinobu Hagiwara

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a hierarchical spatial concept formation method based on the Bayesian generative model with multimodal information e.g., vision, position and word information. Since humans have the ability to select an appropriate level of abstraction according to the situation and describe their position linguistically, e.g., “I am in my home” and “I am in front of the table,” a hierarchical structure of spatial concepts is necessary in order for human support robots to communicate smoothly with users. The proposed method enables a robot to form hierarchical spatial concepts by categorizing multimodal information using hierarchical multimodal latent Dirichlet allocation (hMLDA. Object recognition results using convolutional neural network (CNN, hierarchical k-means clustering result of self-position estimated by Monte Carlo localization (MCL, and a set of location names are used, respectively, as features in vision, position, and word information. Experiments in forming hierarchical spatial concepts and evaluating how the proposed method can predict unobserved location names and position categories are performed using a robot in the real world. Results verify that, relative to comparable baseline methods, the proposed method enables a robot to predict location names and position categories closer to predictions made by humans. As an application example of the proposed method in a home environment, a demonstration in which a human support robot moves to an instructed place based on human speech instructions is achieved based on the formed hierarchical spatial concept.

33 CFR 162.125 - Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Wisc.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Wisc. 162.125 Section 162.125 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) PORTS AND WATERWAYS SAFETY INLAND WATERWAYS NAVIGATION REGULATIONS § 162.125 Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship...

Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Royle, J. Andrew

2008-01-01

Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

Canonical sound speed profile for the central Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Murty, T.V.R.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Somayajulu, Y.K.; Sastry, J.S.; De Figueiredo, R.J.P.

Following Munk's canonical theory, an algorithm has been presented for computing sound channel parameters in the western and southern Bay of Bengal. The estimated canonical sound speed profile using these parameters has been compared with computed...

Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

Science.gov (United States)

Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, Niel; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

1998-01-01

Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improve-ments in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR?s) for the study area. The HGMR?s are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC?s) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additi-onal data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water

Pb’s high sedimentation inside the bay mouth of Jiaozhou Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Dongfang; Miao, Zhenqing; Huang, Xinmin; Wei, Linzhen; Feng, Ming

2017-12-01

Sedimentation is one of the key environmental behaviors of pollutants in the ocean. This paper analyzed the seasonal and temporal variations of Pb’s sedimentation process in Jiaozhou Bay in 1987. Results showed that Pb contents in bottom waters in Jiaozhou Bay in May, July and November 1987 were 1.87-2.60 μg L-1, 15.11-19.68 μg L-1 and 11.08-15.18 μg L-1, and the pollution levels of Pb in May, July and November 1987 were slight, heavy and heavy, respectively. In May 1987, there was low sedimentation process in waters in the outside of the bay mouth, yet were high sedimentation process in waters in the middle and inside of the bay mouth. In July and November 1987, there was low sedimentation process in waters in the outside of the bay mouth, yet were high sedimentation process in waters in the inside of the bay mouth. The seasonal-temporal variation of sedimentation processes of Pb were determined by the variations of sources input and the vertical water’s effect.

Detecting Hierarchical Structure in Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

2012-01-01

Many real-world networks exhibit hierarchical organization. Previous models of hierarchies within relational data has focused on binary trees; however, for many networks it is unknown whether there is hierarchical structure, and if there is, a binary tree might not account well for it. We propose...... a generative Bayesian model that is able to infer whether hierarchies are present or not from a hypothesis space encompassing all types of hierarchical tree structures. For efficient inference we propose a collapsed Gibbs sampling procedure that jointly infers a partition and its hierarchical structure....... On synthetic and real data we demonstrate that our model can detect hierarchical structure leading to better link-prediction than competing models. Our model can be used to detect if a network exhibits hierarchical structure, thereby leading to a better comprehension and statistical account the network....

Sediment transport of streams tributary to San Francisco, San Pablo, and Suisun Bays, California, 1909-66

Science.gov (United States)

Porterfield, George

1980-01-01

A review of historical sedimentation data is presented, results of sediment-data collection for water years 1957-59 are summarized, and long-term sediment-discharge estimates from a preliminary report are updated. Comparison of results based on 3 years of data to those for the 10 water years, 1957-66, provides an indication of the adequacy of the data obtained during the short period to define the long-term relation between sediment transport and streamflow. During 1909-66, sediment was transported to the entire San Francisco Bay system at an average rate of 8.6 million cubic yards per year. The Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins provided about 83% of the sediment inflow to the system annually during 1957-66 and 86% during 1909-66. About 98% of this inflow was measured or estimated at sediment measuring sites. Measured sediment inflow directly to the bays comprised only about 40% of the total discharged by basins directly tributary to the bays. About 90% of the total sediment discharge to the delta and the bays in the San Francisco Bay system thus was determined on the basis of systematic measurements. (USGS)

Functional annotation of hierarchical modularity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanchana Padmanabhan

Full Text Available In biological networks of molecular interactions in a cell, network motifs that are biologically relevant are also functionally coherent, or form functional modules. These functionally coherent modules combine in a hierarchical manner into larger, less cohesive subsystems, thus revealing one of the essential design principles of system-level cellular organization and function-hierarchical modularity. Arguably, hierarchical modularity has not been explicitly taken into consideration by most, if not all, functional annotation systems. As a result, the existing methods would often fail to assign a statistically significant functional coherence score to biologically relevant molecular machines. We developed a methodology for hierarchical functional annotation. Given the hierarchical taxonomy of functional concepts (e.g., Gene Ontology and the association of individual genes or proteins with these concepts (e.g., GO terms, our method will assign a Hierarchical Modularity Score (HMS to each node in the hierarchy of functional modules; the HMS score and its p-value measure functional coherence of each module in the hierarchy. While existing methods annotate each module with a set of "enriched" functional terms in a bag of genes, our complementary method provides the hierarchical functional annotation of the modules and their hierarchically organized components. A hierarchical organization of functional modules often comes as a bi-product of cluster analysis of gene expression data or protein interaction data. Otherwise, our method will automatically build such a hierarchy by directly incorporating the functional taxonomy information into the hierarchy search process and by allowing multi-functional genes to be part of more than one component in the hierarchy. In addition, its underlying HMS scoring metric ensures that functional specificity of the terms across different levels of the hierarchical taxonomy is properly treated. We have evaluated our

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Price, Oliver R., E-mail: oliver.price@unilever.co [Warwick-HRI, University of Warwick, Wellesbourne, Warwick, CV32 6EF (United Kingdom); University of Reading, Soil Science Department, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UR (United Kingdom); Oliver, Margaret A. [University of Reading, Soil Science Department, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UR (United Kingdom); Walker, Allan [Warwick-HRI, University of Warwick, Wellesbourne, Warwick, CV32 6EF (United Kingdom); Wood, Martin [University of Reading, Soil Science Department, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UR (United Kingdom)

2009-05-15

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field. - Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling.

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Price, Oliver R.; Oliver, Margaret A.; Walker, Allan; Wood, Martin

2009-01-01

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field. - Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling.

Benthic flux of nutrients and trace metals in the northern component of San Francisco Bay, California

Science.gov (United States)

Kuwabara, James S.; Topping, Brent R.; Parcheso, Francis; Engelstad, Anita C.; Greene, Valerie E.

2009-01-01

Two sets of sampling trips were coordinated in late summer 2008 (weeks of July 8 and August 6) to sample the interstitial and overlying bottom waters at 10 shallow locations (9 sites meters in depth) within the northern component of the San Francisco Bay/Delta (herein referred to as North Bay). The work was performed to better understand sources of biologically reactive solutes (namely, dissolved macronutrients and trace metals) that may affect the base of the food web in this part of the estuary. A nonmetallic pore-water profiler was used to obtain the first centimeter-scale estimates of the vertical solute-concentration gradients for diffusive-flux determinations. This study, performed in collaboration with scientists from San Francisco State University?s Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies, provides information to assist in developing and refining management strategies for the Bay/Delta system and supports efforts to monitor changes in food-web structure associated with regional habitat modifications directed by the California Bay-Delta Authority. On July 7, 2008, and August 5, 2008, pore-water profilers were successfully deployed at six North Bay sites per trip to measure the concentration gradient of dissolved macronutrients and trace metals near the sediment-water interface. Only two of the sites (433 and SSB009 within Honker Bay) were sampled in both series of profiler deployments. At each sampling site, profilers were deployed in triplicate, while discrete samples and dataloggers were used to collect ancillary data from both the water column and benthos to help interpret diffusive-flux measurements. Benthic flux of dissolved (0.2-micron filtered) inorganic phosphate (that is, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP)) ranged from negligible levels (-0.003?0.005 millimole per square meter per day (mmole m-2d-1) at Site 4.1 outside Honker Bay) to 0.060?0.006 mmole m-2d-1 near the northern coast of Brown?s Island. Except for the elevated flux at Browns

Using empirical Bayes predictors from generalized linear mixed models to test and visualize associations among longitudinal outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan K; Wagner, Brandie D; Grunwald, Gary K; Riggs, Paula D; Zerbe, Gary O

2018-01-01

Medical research is often designed to investigate changes in a collection of response variables that are measured repeatedly on the same subjects. The multivariate generalized linear mixed model (MGLMM) can be used to evaluate random coefficient associations (e.g. simple correlations, partial regression coefficients) among outcomes that may be non-normal and differently distributed by specifying a multivariate normal distribution for their random effects and then evaluating the latent relationship between them. Empirical Bayes predictors are readily available for each subject from any mixed model and are observable and hence, plotable. Here, we evaluate whether second-stage association analyses of empirical Bayes predictors from a MGLMM, provide a good approximation and visual representation of these latent association analyses using medical examples and simulations. Additionally, we compare these results with association analyses of empirical Bayes predictors generated from separate mixed models for each outcome, a procedure that could circumvent computational problems that arise when the dimension of the joint covariance matrix of random effects is large and prohibits estimation of latent associations. As has been shown in other analytic contexts, the p-values for all second-stage coefficients that were determined by naively assuming normality of empirical Bayes predictors provide a good approximation to p-values determined via permutation analysis. Analyzing outcomes that are interrelated with separate models in the first stage and then associating the resulting empirical Bayes predictors in a second stage results in different mean and covariance parameter estimates from the maximum likelihood estimates generated by a MGLMM. The potential for erroneous inference from using results from these separate models increases as the magnitude of the association among the outcomes increases. Thus if computable, scatterplots of the conditionally independent empirical Bayes

Beak measurements of octopus ( Octopus variabilis) in Jiaozhou Bay and their use in size and biomass estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Ying; Ren, Yiping; Meng, Wenrong; Li, Long; Mao, Xia; Han, Dongyan; Ma, Qiuyun

2013-09-01

Cephalopods play key roles in global marine ecosystems as both predators and preys. Regressive estimation of original size and weight of cephalopod from beak measurements is a powerful tool of interrogating the feeding ecology of predators at higher trophic levels. In this study, regressive relationships among beak measurements and body length and weight were determined for an octopus species ( Octopus variabilis), an important endemic cephalopod species in the northwest Pacific Ocean. A total of 193 individuals (63 males and 130 females) were collected at a monthly interval from Jiaozhou Bay, China. Regressive relationships among 6 beak measurements (upper hood length, UHL; upper crest length, UCL; lower hood length, LHL; lower crest length, LCL; and upper and lower beak weights) and mantle length (ML), total length (TL) and body weight (W) were determined. Results showed that the relationships between beak size and TL and beak size and ML were linearly regressive, while those between beak size and W fitted a power function model. LHL and UCL were the most useful measurements for estimating the size and biomass of O. variabilis. The relationships among beak measurements and body length (either ML or TL) were not significantly different between two sexes; while those among several beak measurements (UHL, LHL and LBW) and body weight (W) were sexually different. Since male individuals of this species have a slightly greater body weight distribution than female individuals, the body weight was not an appropriate measurement for estimating size and biomass, especially when the sex of individuals in the stomachs of predators was unknown. These relationships provided essential information for future use in size and biomass estimation of O. variabilis, as well as the estimation of predator/prey size ratios in the diet of top predators.

Economics of wild salmon ecosystems: Bristol Bay, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

John W. Duffield; Christopher J. Neher; David A. Patterson; Oliver S. Goldsmith

2007-01-01

This paper provides an estimate of the economic value of wild salmon ecosystems in the major watershed of Bristol Bay, Alaska. The analysis utilizes both regional economic and social benefit-cost accounting frameworks. Key sectors analyzed include subsistence, commercial fishing, sport fishing, hunting, and nonconsumptive wildlife viewing and tourism. The mixed cash-...

Comparing hierarchical models via the marginalized deviance information criterion.

Science.gov (United States)

Quintero, Adrian; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2018-07-20

Hierarchical models are extensively used in pharmacokinetics and longitudinal studies. When the estimation is performed from a Bayesian approach, model comparison is often based on the deviance information criterion (DIC). In hierarchical models with latent variables, there are several versions of this statistic: the conditional DIC (cDIC) that incorporates the latent variables in the focus of the analysis and the marginalized DIC (mDIC) that integrates them out. Regardless of the asymptotic and coherency difficulties of cDIC, this alternative is usually used in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for hierarchical models because of practical convenience. The mDIC criterion is more appropriate in most cases but requires integration of the likelihood, which is computationally demanding and not implemented in Bayesian software. Therefore, we consider a method to compute mDIC by generating replicate samples of the latent variables that need to be integrated out. This alternative can be easily conducted from the MCMC output of Bayesian packages and is widely applicable to hierarchical models in general. Additionally, we propose some approximations in order to reduce the computational complexity for large-sample situations. The method is illustrated with simulated data sets and 2 medical studies, evidencing that cDIC may be misleading whilst mDIC appears pertinent. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Basin-scale seasonal changes in marine free-living bacterioplankton community in the Ofunato Bay

KAUST Repository

Reza, Md. Shaheed

2018-04-26

The Ofunato Bay in the northeastern Pacific Ocean area of Japan possesses the highest biodiversity of marine organisms in the world and has attracted much attention due to its economic and environmental importance. We report here a shotgun metagenomic analysis of the year-round variation in free-living bacterioplankton collected across the entire length of the bay. Phylogenetic differences among spring, summer, autumn and winter bacterioplankton suggested that members of Proteobacteria tended to decrease at high water temperatures and increase at low temperatures. It was revealed that Candidatus Pelagibacter varied seasonally, reaching as much as 60% of all sequences at the genus level in the surface waters during winter. This increase was more evident in the deeper waters, where they reached up to 75%. The relative abundance of Planktomarina also rose during winter and fell during summer. A significant component of the winter bacterioplankton community was Archaea (mainly represented by Nitrosopumilus), as their relative abundance was very low during spring and summer but high during winter. In contrast, Actinobacteria and Cyanobacteria appeared to be higher in abundance during high-temperature periods. It was also revealed that Bacteroidetes constituted a significant component of the summer bacterioplankton community, being the second largest bacterial phylum detected in the Ofunato Bay. Its members, notably Polaribacter and Flavobacterium, were found to be high in abundance during spring and summer, particularly in the surface waters. Principal component analysis and hierarchal clustering analyses showed that the bacterial communities in the Ofunato Bay changed seasonally, likely caused by the levels of organic matter, which would be deeply mixed with surface runoff in the winter.

Catalysis with hierarchical zeolites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Martin Spangsberg; Taarning, Esben; Egeblad, Kresten

2011-01-01

Hierarchical (or mesoporous) zeolites have attracted significant attention during the first decade of the 21st century, and so far this interest continues to increase. There have already been several reviews giving detailed accounts of the developments emphasizing different aspects of this research...... topic. Until now, the main reason for developing hierarchical zeolites has been to achieve heterogeneous catalysts with improved performance but this particular facet has not yet been reviewed in detail. Thus, the present paper summaries and categorizes the catalytic studies utilizing hierarchical...... zeolites that have been reported hitherto. Prototypical examples from some of the different categories of catalytic reactions that have been studied using hierarchical zeolite catalysts are highlighted. This clearly illustrates the different ways that improved performance can be achieved with this family...

On the analyticity of the pressure in the hierarchical dipole gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benfatto, G.; Gallavotti, G.; Nicolo, F.

1989-01-01

The authors attempt to prove, by the direct estimation of the convergence radius, the convergence of the Mayer expansion for the dipole gas, with the aim of developing techniques eventually suitable to prove the often conjectured convergence of the Mayer expansion for the two-dimensional Coulomb gas at low temperature. The treatment stems from their technique for sharp estimates on the truncated expectations for a hierarchical dipole gas model

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Self-Thinning Line for Chinese Fir in Southern China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiongqing Zhang

Full Text Available Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.Hook. plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF. Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc. on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.

Correlation Between Hierarchical Bayesian and Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Data and Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, ...

Convergent evidence for hierarchical prediction networks from human electrocorticography and magnetoencephalography.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Holly N; Blenkmann, Alejandro; Hughes, Laura E; Kochen, Silvia; Bekinschtein, Tristan A; Cam-Can; Rowe, James B

2016-09-01

We propose that sensory inputs are processed in terms of optimised predictions and prediction error signals within hierarchical neurocognitive models. The combination of non-invasive brain imaging and generative network models has provided support for hierarchical frontotemporal interactions in oddball tasks, including recent identification of a temporal expectancy signal acting on prefrontal cortex. However, these studies are limited by the need to invert magnetoencephalographic or electroencephalographic sensor signals to localise activity from cortical 'nodes' in the network, or to infer neural responses from indirect measures such as the fMRI BOLD signal. To overcome this limitation, we examined frontotemporal interactions estimated from direct cortical recordings from two human participants with cortical electrode grids (electrocorticography - ECoG). Their frontotemporal network dynamics were compared to those identified by magnetoencephalography (MEG) in forty healthy adults. All participants performed the same auditory oddball task with standard tones interspersed with five deviant tone types. We normalised post-operative electrode locations to standardised anatomic space, to compare across modalities, and inverted the MEG to cortical sources using the estimated lead field from subject-specific head models. A mismatch negativity signal in frontal and temporal cortex was identified in all subjects. Generative models of the electrocorticographic and magnetoencephalographic data were separately compared using the free-energy estimate of the model evidence. Model comparison confirmed the same critical features of hierarchical frontotemporal networks in each patient as in the group-wise MEG analysis. These features included bilateral, feedforward and feedback frontotemporal modulated connectivity, in addition to an asymmetric expectancy driving input on left frontal cortex. The invasive ECoG provides an important step in construct validation of the use of neural

Parallel hierarchical radiosity rendering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, Michael [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

1993-07-01

In this dissertation, the step-by-step development of a scalable parallel hierarchical radiosity renderer is documented. First, a new look is taken at the traditional radiosity equation, and a new form is presented in which the matrix of linear system coefficients is transformed into a symmetric matrix, thereby simplifying the problem and enabling a new solution technique to be applied. Next, the state-of-the-art hierarchical radiosity methods are examined for their suitability to parallel implementation, and scalability. Significant enhancements are also discovered which both improve their theoretical foundations and improve the images they generate. The resultant hierarchical radiosity algorithm is then examined for sources of parallelism, and for an architectural mapping. Several architectural mappings are discussed. A few key algorithmic changes are suggested during the process of making the algorithm parallel. Next, the performance, efficiency, and scalability of the algorithm are analyzed. The dissertation closes with a discussion of several ideas which have the potential to further enhance the hierarchical radiosity method, or provide an entirely new forum for the application of hierarchical methods.

Hierarchical prisoner’s dilemma in hierarchical game for resource competition

Science.gov (United States)

Fujimoto, Yuma; Sagawa, Takahiro; Kaneko, Kunihiko

2017-07-01

Dilemmas in cooperation are one of the major concerns in game theory. In a public goods game, each individual cooperates by paying a cost or defecting without paying it, and receives a reward from the group out of the collected cost. Thus, defecting is beneficial for each individual, while cooperation is beneficial for the group. Now, groups (say, countries) consisting of individuals also play games. To study such a multi-level game, we introduce a hierarchical game in which multiple groups compete for limited resources by utilizing the collected cost in each group, where the power to appropriate resources increases with the population of the group. Analyzing this hierarchical game, we found a hierarchical prisoner’s dilemma, in which groups choose the defecting policy (say, armament) as a Nash strategy to optimize each group’s benefit, while cooperation optimizes the total benefit. On the other hand, for each individual, refusing to pay the cost (say, tax) is a Nash strategy, which turns out to be a cooperation policy for the group, thus leading to a hierarchical dilemma. Here the group reward increases with the group size. However, we find that there exists an optimal group size that maximizes the individual payoff. Furthermore, when the population asymmetry between two groups is large, the smaller group will choose a cooperation policy (say, disarmament) to avoid excessive response from the larger group, and the prisoner’s dilemma between the groups is resolved. Accordingly, the relevance of this hierarchical game on policy selection in society and the optimal size of human or animal groups are discussed.

Predominant Nearshore Sediment Dispersal Patterns in Manila Bay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Siringan

1997-12-01

Full Text Available Net nearshore sediment drift patterns in Manila Bay were determined by combining the coastal geomorphology depicted in 1 : 50,000scale topographic maps and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR images, with changes in shoreline position and predominant longshore current directions derived from the interaction of locally generated waves and bay morphology.Manila Bay is fringed by a variety of coastal subenvironments that reflect changing balances of fluvial, wave, and tidal processes. Along the northern coast, a broad tidal-river delta plain stretching from Bataan to Bulacan indicates the importance of tides, where the lateral extent of tidal influences is amplified by the very gentle coastal gradients. In contrast, along the Cavite coast sandy strandplains, spits, and wave-dominated deltas attest to the geomorphic importance of waves that enter the bay from the South China Sea.The estimates of net sediment drift derived from geomorphological, shoreline-change, and meteorological information are generally in good agreement. Sediment drift directions are predominantly to the northeast along Cavite, to the northwest along Manila and Bulacan, and to the north along Bataan. Wave refraction and eddy formation at the tip of the Cavite Spit cause southwestward sediment drift along the coast from Zapote to Kawit. Geomorphology indicates that onshore-offshore sediment transport is probably more important than alongshore transport along the coast fronting the tidal delta plain of northern Manila Bay. Disagreements between the geomorphic-derived and predicted net sediment drift directions may be due to interactions of wave-generated longshore currents with wind- and tide-generated currents.

The onset of deglaciation of Cumberland Bay and Stromness Bay, South Georgia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Der Putten, N.; Verbruggen, C.

Carbon dating of basal peat deposits in Cumberland Bay and Stromness Bay and sediments from a lake in Stromness Bay, South Georgia indicates deglaciation at the very beginning of the Holocene before c. 9500 14C yr BP. This post-dates the deglaciation of one local lake which has been ice-free since

Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

2017-12-01

Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning the underlying covariance structure are evaluated using (fractional) Bayes factor tests. The support for a unidimensional factor (i.e., assumption of local independence) and differential item functioning are evaluated by testing the covariance components. The posterior distribution of common covariance components is obtained in closed form by transforming latent responses with an orthogonal (Helmert) matrix. This posterior distribution is defined as a shifted-inverse-gamma, thereby introducing a default prior and a balanced prior distribution. Based on that, an MCMC algorithm is described to estimate all model parameters and to compute (fractional) Bayes factor tests. Simulation studies are used to show that the (fractional) Bayes factor tests have good properties for testing the underlying covariance structure of binary response data. The method is illustrated with two real data studies.

Topics in Computational Bayesian Statistics With Applications to Hierarchical Models in Astronomy and Sociology

Science.gov (United States)

Sahai, Swupnil

This thesis includes three parts. The overarching theme is how to analyze structured hierarchical data, with applications to astronomy and sociology. The first part discusses how expectation propagation can be used to parallelize the computation when fitting big hierarchical bayesian models. This methodology is then used to fit a novel, nonlinear mixture model to ultraviolet radiation from various regions of the observable universe. The second part discusses how the Stan probabilistic programming language can be used to numerically integrate terms in a hierarchical bayesian model. This technique is demonstrated on supernovae data to significantly speed up convergence to the posterior distribution compared to a previous study that used a Gibbs-type sampler. The third part builds a formal latent kernel representation for aggregate relational data as a way to more robustly estimate the mixing characteristics of agents in a network. In particular, the framework is applied to sociology surveys to estimate, as a function of ego age, the age and sex composition of the personal networks of individuals in the United States.

Micromechanics of hierarchical materials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr.

2012-01-01

A short overview of micromechanical models of hierarchical materials (hybrid composites, biomaterials, fractal materials, etc.) is given. Several examples of the modeling of strength and damage in hierarchical materials are summarized, among them, 3D FE model of hybrid composites...... with nanoengineered matrix, fiber bundle model of UD composites with hierarchically clustered fibers and 3D multilevel model of wood considered as a gradient, cellular material with layered composite cell walls. The main areas of research in micromechanics of hierarchical materials are identified, among them......, the investigations of the effects of load redistribution between reinforcing elements at different scale levels, of the possibilities to control different material properties and to ensure synergy of strengthening effects at different scale levels and using the nanoreinforcement effects. The main future directions...

An Improvement to Interval Estimation for Small Samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUN Hui-Ling

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Because it is difficult and complex to determine the probability distribution of small samples，it is improper to use traditional probability theory to process parameter estimation for small samples. Bayes Bootstrap method is always used in the project. Although，the Bayes Bootstrap method has its own limitation，In this article an improvement is given to the Bayes Bootstrap method，This method extended the amount of samples by numerical simulation without changing the circumstances in a small sample of the original sample. And the new method can give the accurate interval estimation for the small samples. Finally，by using the Monte Carlo simulation to model simulation to the specific small sample problems. The effectiveness and practicability of the Improved-Bootstrap method was proved.

Estimations of parameters in Pareto reliability model in the presence of masked data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarhan, Ammar M.

2003-01-01

Estimations of parameters included in the individual distributions of the life times of system components in a series system are considered in this paper based on masked system life test data. We consider a series system of two independent components each has a Pareto distributed lifetime. The maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators for the parameters and the values of the reliability of the system's components at a specific time are obtained. Symmetrical triangular prior distributions are assumed for the unknown parameters to be estimated in obtaining the Bayes estimators of these parameters. Large simulation studies are done in order: (i) explain how one can utilize the theoretical results obtained; (ii) compare the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates obtained of the underlying parameters; and (iii) study the influence of the masking level and the sample size on the accuracy of the estimates obtained

How hierarchical is language use?

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Stefan L.; Bod, Rens; Christiansen, Morten H.

2012-01-01

It is generally assumed that hierarchical phrase structure plays a central role in human language. However, considerations of simplicity and evolutionary continuity suggest that hierarchical structure should not be invoked too hastily. Indeed, recent neurophysiological, behavioural and computational studies show that sequential sentence structure has considerable explanatory power and that hierarchical processing is often not involved. In this paper, we review evidence from the recent literature supporting the hypothesis that sequential structure may be fundamental to the comprehension, production and acquisition of human language. Moreover, we provide a preliminary sketch outlining a non-hierarchical model of language use and discuss its implications and testable predictions. If linguistic phenomena can be explained by sequential rather than hierarchical structure, this will have considerable impact in a wide range of fields, such as linguistics, ethology, cognitive neuroscience, psychology and computer science. PMID:22977157

75 FR 8297 - Tongass National Forest, Thorne Bay Ranger District, Thorne Bay, AK

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-24

..., Thorne Bay, AK AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Cancellation of Notice of intent to prepare an... Roberts, Zone Planner, Thorne Bay Ranger District, Tongass National Forest, P.O. Box 19001, Thorne Bay, AK 99919, telephone: 907-828-3250. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The 47,007-acre Kosciusko Project Area is...

77 FR 44140 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Sturgeon Bay, WI

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-27

... Maple-Oregon Bridges so vehicular traffic congestion would not develop on downtown Sturgeon Bay streets... movement of vehicular traffic in Sturgeon Bay. The Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal is approximately 8.6 miles long... significant increase in vehicular and vessel traffic during the peak tourist and navigation season between...

Bay Ridge Gardens - Mixed-Humid Affordable Multifamily Housing Deep Energy Retrofit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lyons, J.; Moore, M.; Thompson, M.

2013-08-01

Under this project, Newport Partners (as part of the BA-PIRC research team) evaluated the installation, measured performance, and cost-effectiveness of efficiency upgrade measures for a tenant-in-place DER at the Bay Ridge multifamily (MF) development in Annapolis, Maryland. The design and construction phase of the Bay Ridge project was completed in August 2012. This report summarizes system commissioning, short-term test results, utility bill data analysis, and analysis of real-time data collected over a one-year period after the retrofit was complete. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a 'base scope' retrofit which was estimated to achieve a 30%+ savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on 186 apartments, and a 'DER scope' which was estimated to achieve 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on a 12-unit building. The base scope was applied to the entire apartment complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. A wide range of efficiency measures was applied to pursue this savings target for the DER building, including improvements/replacements of mechanical equipment and distribution systems, appliances, lighting and lighting controls, the building envelope, hot water conservation measures, and resident education. The results of this research build upon the current body of knowledge of multifamily retrofits. Towards this end, the research team has collected and generated data on the selection of measures, their estimated performance, their measured performance, and risk factors and their impact on potential measures.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Designs: Evaluation Using Latent Variable Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Raykov, Tenko

2011-01-01

Interval estimation of intraclass correlation coefficients in hierarchical designs is discussed within a latent variable modeling framework. A method accomplishing this aim is outlined, which is applicable in two-level studies where participants (or generally lower-order units) are clustered within higher-order units. The procedure can also be…

Physical processes in a coupled bay-estuary coastal system: Whitsand Bay and Plymouth Sound

Science.gov (United States)

Uncles, R. J.; Stephens, J. A.; Harris, C.

2015-09-01

Whitsand Bay and Plymouth Sound are located in the southwest of England. The Bay and Sound are separated by the ∼2-3 km-wide Rame Peninsula and connected by ∼10-20 m-deep English Channel waters. Results are presented from measurements of waves and currents, drogue tracking, surveys of salinity, temperature and turbidity during stratified and unstratified conditions, and bed sediment surveys. 2D and 3D hydrodynamic models are used to explore the generation of tidally- and wind-driven residual currents, flow separation and the formation of the Rame eddy, and the coupling between the Bay and the Sound. Tidal currents flow around the Rame Peninsula from the Sound to the Bay between approximately 3 h before to 2 h after low water and form a transport path between them that conveys lower salinity, higher turbidity waters from the Sound to the Bay. These waters are then transported into the Bay as part of the Bay-mouth limb of the Rame eddy and subsequently conveyed to the near-shore, east-going limb and re-circulated back towards Rame Head. The Simpson-Hunter stratification parameter indicates that much of the Sound and Bay are likely to stratify thermally during summer months. Temperature stratification in both is pronounced during summer and is largely determined by coastal, deeper-water stratification offshore. Small tidal stresses in the Bay are unable to move bed sediment of the observed sizes. However, the Bay and Sound are subjected to large waves that are capable of driving a substantial bed-load sediment transport. Measurements show relatively low levels of turbidity, but these respond rapidly to, and have a strong correlation with, wave height.

Plant diversity and biomass of Marudu bay mangroves in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanum, F.; Kudus, K.A.; Saari, N.S

2012-01-01

The mangroves of Marudu Bay in the state of Sabah is situated at the tip of Borneo Island, and at the southern limit of the Coral Triangle whose waters hold the highest diversity of corals, fish, molluscks, crustaceans and marine plant species in the world. The ecosystem shows a deterioration due to unsustainable fishing, pollution and encroachment, and these are impacting the Marudu Bay coastal communities economically. Fishing is the major economic activity here. Realising the importance of conserving the mangroves to uplift the socio-economic livelihood of the coastal community, a resource inventory of the mangroves and its productivity study were carried out. A total of 16 plant species in 12 genera and 9 families were identified. It was also found that 0.7 ha is capable of capturing all the species in the mangrove forest. The mangrove forests of Marudu Bay are dominated by Rhizopora apiculata and R. mucronata. The highest Importance Value index (IVI) was given by Rhizophora mucronata. Total Above Ground Biomass (TAGB) for 1-ha of mangrove forest in Marudu Bay was estimated to be 98.4 t/ha. It was found in other parallel studies that the mangroves of Marudu Bay are productive ecosystems that provide valuable habitats, nurseries and spawning grounds for various commercially important species of fish and invertebrates such as shrimp besides many species of wildlife. The mangroves at Marudu Bay are not only aesthetically attractive but provide opportunities for ecotourism activities that can be undertaken by the local community inhabiting the area to uplift their meagre income, These activities include mangrove cruising, recreational fishing, educational tourism and mangrove honey production, amongst others. This way, the degradation of the mangrove in Marudu Bay can be halted and reversed. (author)

Synoptic volumetric variations and flushing of the Tampa Bay estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, M.; Meyers, S. D.; Luther, M. E.

2014-03-01

Two types of analyses are used to investigate the synoptic wind-driven flushing of Tampa Bay in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from 1950 to 2007. Hourly sea level elevations from the St. Petersburg tide gauge, and wind speed and direction from three different sites around Tampa Bay are used for the study. The zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components are rotated clockwise by 40° to obtain axial and co-axial components according to the layout of the bay. First, we use the subtidal observed water level as a proxy for mean tidal height to estimate the rate of volumetric bay outflow. Second, we use wavelet analysis to bandpass sea level and wind data in the time-frequency domain to isolate the synoptic sea level and surface wind variance. For both analyses the long-term monthly climatology is removed and we focus on the volumetric and wavelet variance anomalies. The overall correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index and volumetric analysis is small due to the seasonal dependence of the ENSO response. The mean monthly climatology between the synoptic wavelet variance of elevation and axial winds are in close agreement. During the winter, El Niño (La Niña) increases (decreases) the synoptic variability, but decreases (increases) it during the summer. The difference in winter El Niño/La Niña wavelet variances is about 20 % of the climatological value, meaning that ENSO can swing the synoptic flushing of the bay by 0.22 bay volumes per month. These changes in circulation associated with synoptic variability have the potential to impact mixing and transport within the bay.

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

Hierarchical architecture of active knits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abel, Julianna; Luntz, Jonathan; Brei, Diann

2013-01-01

Nature eloquently utilizes hierarchical structures to form the world around us. Applying the hierarchical architecture paradigm to smart materials can provide a basis for a new genre of actuators which produce complex actuation motions. One promising example of cellular architecture—active knits—provides complex three-dimensional distributed actuation motions with expanded operational performance through a hierarchically organized structure. The hierarchical structure arranges a single fiber of active material, such as shape memory alloys (SMAs), into a cellular network of interlacing adjacent loops according to a knitting grid. This paper defines a four-level hierarchical classification of knit structures: the basic knit loop, knit patterns, grid patterns, and restructured grids. Each level of the hierarchy provides increased architectural complexity, resulting in expanded kinematic actuation motions of active knits. The range of kinematic actuation motions are displayed through experimental examples of different SMA active knits. The results from this paper illustrate and classify the ways in which each level of the hierarchical knit architecture leverages the performance of the base smart material to generate unique actuation motions, providing necessary insight to best exploit this new actuation paradigm. (paper)

Nested and Hierarchical Archimax copulas

KAUST Repository

Hofert, Marius

2017-07-03

The class of Archimax copulas is generalized to nested and hierarchical Archimax copulas in several ways. First, nested extreme-value copulas or nested stable tail dependence functions are introduced to construct nested Archimax copulas based on a single frailty variable. Second, a hierarchical construction of d-norm generators is presented to construct hierarchical stable tail dependence functions and thus hierarchical extreme-value copulas. Moreover, one can, by itself or additionally, introduce nested frailties to extend Archimax copulas to nested Archimax copulas in a similar way as nested Archimedean copulas extend Archimedean copulas. Further results include a general formula for the density of Archimax copulas.

Nested and Hierarchical Archimax copulas

KAUST Repository

Hofert, Marius; Huser, Raphaë l; Prasad, Avinash

2017-01-01

The class of Archimax copulas is generalized to nested and hierarchical Archimax copulas in several ways. First, nested extreme-value copulas or nested stable tail dependence functions are introduced to construct nested Archimax copulas based on a single frailty variable. Second, a hierarchical construction of d-norm generators is presented to construct hierarchical stable tail dependence functions and thus hierarchical extreme-value copulas. Moreover, one can, by itself or additionally, introduce nested frailties to extend Archimax copulas to nested Archimax copulas in a similar way as nested Archimedean copulas extend Archimedean copulas. Further results include a general formula for the density of Archimax copulas.

78 FR 46813 - Safety Zone; Evening on the Bay Fireworks; Sturgeon Bay, WI

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-02

...-AA00 Safety Zone; Evening on the Bay Fireworks; Sturgeon Bay, WI AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION.... This temporary safety zone will restrict vessels from a portion of Sturgeon Bay due to a fireworks... hazards associated with the fireworks display. DATES: This rule is effective from 8 p.m. until 10 p.m. on...

77 FR 38488 - Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-28

... 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY... restrict vessels from a portion of the St. Lawrence River during the Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce... of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) entitled Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence...

A data-driven approach to estimating the number of clusters in hierarchical clustering [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antoine E. Zambelli

2016-12-01

Full Text Available DNA microarray and gene expression problems often require a researcher to perform clustering on their data in a bid to better understand its structure. In cases where the number of clusters is not known, one can resort to hierarchical clustering methods. However, there currently exist very few automated algorithms for determining the true number of clusters in the data. We propose two new methods (mode and maximum difference for estimating the number of clusters in a hierarchical clustering framework to create a fully automated process with no human intervention. These methods are compared to the established elbow and gap statistic algorithms using simulated datasets and the Biobase Gene ExpressionSet. We also explore a data mixing procedure inspired by cross validation techniques. We find that the overall performance of the maximum difference method is comparable or greater to that of the gap statistic in multi-cluster scenarios, and achieves that performance at a fraction of the computational cost. This method also responds well to our mixing procedure, which opens the door to future research. We conclude that both the mode and maximum difference methods warrant further study related to their mixing and cross-validation potential. We particularly recommend the use of the maximum difference method in multi-cluster scenarios given its accuracy and execution times, and present it as an alternative to existing algorithms.

Monitoring coastal water properties and current circulation with ERTS-1. [Delaware Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Klemas, V.; Otley, M.; Wethe, C.; Rogers, R.

1974-01-01

Imagery and digital tapes from nine successful ERTS-1 passes over Delaware Bay during different portions of the tidal cycle have been analyzed with special emphasis on turbidity, current circulation, waste disposal plumes and convergent boundaries between different water masses. ERTS-1 image radiance correlated well with Secchi depth and suspended sediment concentration. Circulation patterns observed by ERTS-1 during different parts of the tidal cycle, agreed well with predicted and measured currents throughout Delaware Bay. Convergent shear boundaries between different water masses were observed from ERTS-1. In several ERTS-1 frames, waste disposal plumes have been detected 36 miles off Delaware's Atlantic coast. The ERTS-1 results are being used to extend and verify hydrodynamic models of the bay, developed for predicting oil slick movement and estimating sediment transport.

Hierarchical Models for Type Ia Supernova Light Curves in the Optical and Near Infrared

Science.gov (United States)

Mandel, Kaisey; Narayan, G.; Kirshner, R. P.

2011-01-01

I have constructed a comprehensive statistical model for Type Ia supernova optical and near infrared light curves. Since the near infrared light curves are excellent standard candles and are less sensitive to dust extinction and reddening, the combination of near infrared and optical data better constrains the host galaxy extinction and improves the precision of distance predictions to SN Ia. A hierarchical probabilistic model coherently accounts for multiple random and uncertain effects, including photometric error, intrinsic supernova light curve variations and correlations across phase and wavelength, dust extinction and reddening, peculiar velocity dispersion and distances. An improved BayeSN MCMC code is implemented for computing probabilistic inferences for individual supernovae and the SN Ia and host galaxy dust populations. I use this hierarchical model to analyze nearby Type Ia supernovae with optical and near infared data from the PAIRITEL, CfA3, and CSP samples and the literature. Using cross-validation to test the robustness of the model predictions, I find that the rms Hubble diagram scatter of predicted distance moduli is 0.11 mag for SN with optical and near infrared data versus 0.15 mag for SN with only optical data. Accounting for the dispersion expected from random peculiar velocities, the rms intrinsic prediction error is 0.08-0.10 mag for SN with both optical and near infrared light curves. I discuss results for the inferred intrinsic correlation structures of the optical-NIR SN Ia light curves and the host galaxy dust distribution captured by the hierarchical model. The continued observation and analysis of Type Ia SN in the optical and near infrared is important for improving their utility as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

Intensity-based hierarchical elastic registration using approximating splines.

Science.gov (United States)

Serifovic-Trbalic, Amira; Demirovic, Damir; Cattin, Philippe C

2014-01-01

We introduce a new hierarchical approach for elastic medical image registration using approximating splines. In order to obtain the dense deformation field, we employ Gaussian elastic body splines (GEBS) that incorporate anisotropic landmark errors and rotation information. Since the GEBS approach is based on a physical model in form of analytical solutions of the Navier equation, it can very well cope with the local as well as global deformations present in the images by varying the standard deviation of the Gaussian forces. The proposed GEBS approximating model is integrated into the elastic hierarchical image registration framework, which decomposes a nonrigid registration problem into numerous local rigid transformations. The approximating GEBS registration scheme incorporates anisotropic landmark errors as well as rotation information. The anisotropic landmark localization uncertainties can be estimated directly from the image data, and in this case, they represent the minimal stochastic localization error, i.e., the Cramér-Rao bound. The rotation information of each landmark obtained from the hierarchical procedure is transposed in an additional angular landmark, doubling the number of landmarks in the GEBS model. The modified hierarchical registration using the approximating GEBS model is applied to register 161 image pairs from a digital mammogram database. The obtained results are very encouraging, and the proposed approach significantly improved all registrations comparing the mean-square error in relation to approximating TPS with the rotation information. On artificially deformed breast images, the newly proposed method performed better than the state-of-the-art registration algorithm introduced by Rueckert et al. (IEEE Trans Med Imaging 18:712-721, 1999). The average error per breast tissue pixel was less than 2.23 pixels compared to 2.46 pixels for Rueckert's method. The proposed hierarchical elastic image registration approach incorporates the GEBS

Waterbird nest monitoring program in San Francisco Bay (2005-10)

Science.gov (United States)

Ackerman, Joshua T.; Herzog, Mark P.

2012-01-01

Historically, Forster’s Terns (Sterna forsteri), American Avocets (Recurvirostra americana), and Black-necked Stilts (Himantopus mexicanus) were uncommon residents of San Francisco Bay, California (Grinnell and others, 1918; Grinnell and Wythe, 1927; Sibley, 1952). Presently, however, avocets and stilts are the two most abundant breeding shorebirds in San Francisco Bay (Stenzel and others, 2002; Rintoul and others, 2003). More than 4,000 avocets and 1,000 stilts, roughly 20 percent of their San Francisco Bay wintering populations, breed within the estuary, making San Francisco Bay the largest breeding area for these species on the Pacific Coast (Stenzel and others, 2002; Rintoul and others, 2003). Forster’s Terns were first observed breeding in the San Francisco Bay in 1948 (110 nests); they had increased to over 4000 individuals by the 1980s (Sibley, 1952; Gill, 1977; Harvey and others, 1992; Carter and others, 1990) and were estimated at 2000–3000 for 1998–2002; (Strong and others, 2004).It is hypothesized that the relatively large size of the current waterbird breeding populations is a result of the creation of artificial salt evaporation ponds from the 1930s through the 1950s (Gill, 1977; Goals Project, 1999). Until recently, these salt ponds and associated islands used by waterbirds for nesting have been managed relatively similarly and have supported large breeding waterbird populations. Recently, the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project has implemented plans to convert 50–90 percent of the 15,000 acres of salt ponds in the South San Francisco Bay back to tidal marsh habitat. Therefore, there is concern that the Restoration Project, while benefiting other native species, could negatively influence local breeding populations of waterbirds that are reliant on salt pond habitats for both breeding and foraging. A primary goal of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project is to maintain current breeding waterbird populations (South Bay Salt Pond Long

Prion Amplification and Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Refine Detection of Prion Infection

Science.gov (United States)

Wyckoff, A. Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J.; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; Vercauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark

2015-02-01

Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.

Prion amplification and hierarchical Bayesian modeling refine detection of prion infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wyckoff, A Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; VerCauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark

2015-02-10

Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.

Trans-dimensional matched-field geoacoustic inversion with hierarchical error models and interacting Markov chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E

2012-10-01

This paper develops a trans-dimensional approach to matched-field geoacoustic inversion, including interacting Markov chains to improve efficiency and an autoregressive model to account for correlated errors. The trans-dimensional approach and hierarchical seabed model allows inversion without assuming any particular parametrization by relaxing model specification to a range of plausible seabed models (e.g., in this case, the number of sediment layers is an unknown parameter). Data errors are addressed by sampling statistical error-distribution parameters, including correlated errors (covariance), by applying a hierarchical autoregressive error model. The well-known difficulty of low acceptance rates for trans-dimensional jumps is addressed with interacting Markov chains, resulting in a substantial increase in efficiency. The trans-dimensional seabed model and the hierarchical error model relax the degree of prior assumptions required in the inversion, resulting in substantially improved (more realistic) uncertainty estimates and a more automated algorithm. In particular, the approach gives seabed parameter uncertainty estimates that account for uncertainty due to prior model choice (layering and data error statistics). The approach is applied to data measured on a vertical array in the Mediterranean Sea.

Particle-borne radionuclides as tracers for sediment in the Susquehanna River and Chesapeake Bay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donoghue, J F [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (USA). Dept. of Geology; Bricker, O P [Geological Survey, Reston, VA (USA). Water Resources Div.; Olsen, C R [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)

1989-10-01

The Chesapeake Bay receives nearly 1,000,000 tonnes of sediment annually from its major tributary, the Susquehanna River. The pattern of deposition of this sediment affects the lifetime of the estuarine resource and the fate of any sediment-borne contaminants. Previous estimates of the extent to which Susquehanna River sediment is transported down the Chesapeake have differed considerably. By use of reactor-generated radionuclides adsorbed on the river sediment, a sediment budget has been compiled for the upper Chesapeake Bay and the reservoirs on the lower Susquehanna. Reservoirs impound nearly 1,400,000 tonnes of sediment annually behind the power dams on the lower Susquehanna River. Without the dams, sediment delivery to the upper bay would more than double. The uppermost Chesapeake Bay, within and above the turbidity maximum, retains virtually all of the fluvial sediment delivered to it. The result is an annual sedimentation rate of approximately 3 mm yr{sup -1} in the upper bay, an infilling rate that is nearly equal to the regional rate of sea level rise. (author).

Particle-borne radionuclides as tracers for sediment in the Susquehanna River and Chesapeake Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donoghue, J.F.

1989-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay receives nearly 1,000,000 tonnes of sediment annually from its major tributary, the Susquehanna River. The pattern of deposition of this sediment affects the lifetime of the estuarine resource and the fate of any sediment-borne contaminants. Previous estimates of the extent to which Susquehanna River sediment is transported down the Chesapeake have differed considerably. By use of reactor-generated radionuclides adsorbed on the river sediment, a sediment budget has been compiled for the upper Chesapeake Bay and the reservoirs on the lower Susquehanna. Reservoirs impound nearly 1,400,000 tonnes of sediment annually behind the power dams on the lower Susquehanna River. Without the dams, sediment delivery to the upper bay would more than double. The uppermost Chesapeake Bay, within and above the turbidity maximum, retains virtually all of the fluvial sediment delivered to it. The result is an annual sedimentation rate of approximately 3 mm yr -1 in the upper bay, an infilling rate that is nearly equal to the regional rate of sea level rise. (author)

Low complexity variational bayes iterative reviver for MIMO-OFDM systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xiong, Chunlin; Wang, Hua; Zhang, Xiaoying

2009-01-01

A low complexity iterative receiver is proposed in this paper for MIMO-OFDM systems in time-varying multi-path channel based on the variational Bayes (VB) method. According to the VB method, the estimation algorithms of the signal distribution and the channel distribution are derived for the rece...

An investigation of recent storm histories using Ground Penetrating Radar at Bay-Bay Spit, Bicol, Central Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Switzer, Adam D.; Pile, Jeremy; Soria, Janneli Lea A.; Siringan, Fernando; Daag, Arturo; Brill, Dominik

2016-04-01

The Philippine archipelago lies in the path of seasonal tropical cyclones, and much of the coast is prone to periodic inundation and overwash during storm surges. On example is typhoon Durian a category 3 storm that made landfall on the 30th November 2006, in Bicol province, on the east central Philippine coast. Satellite imagery from May 2007 reveal that Durian breached a sandy spit that runs southeast from the mouth of the Quinale River at Bay-Bay village towards Tabaco City. The imagery also showed that, although the breach site showed signs of partial recovery, geomorphological evidence of the inundation event associated with typhoon Durian still remains. In 2012 we mapped the geomorphological features of Durian. In June 2013 we returned to conduct Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys on the Bay-Bay spit to investigate potential subsurface evidence of previous storm events. The GPR surveys comprised five, 1.5 km, longshore profiles and 12 cross-shore profiles, of 50 m - 200 m in length. The GPR system used for this study was a Sensors and Software Noggin with 100 Mhz antennas. Near surface velocities were determine using Hyperbolae matching in order to estimate depth. Topographic and positional data were collected using a dGPS system. After minimal processing depth of penetration during the survey varied from 2 - 8 m. The cross-shore GPR profiles reveal at least two erosional events prior to 2006 typhoon Durian, with approximately 10 m of recovery and progradation between each erosion surface. The GPR profiles that captured the erosional features were revisited in September 2013 for trial pitting, stratigraphic description, and sediment sampling. Sediment cores were taken horizontally from the trench walls and vertically from the trench bases to date sediments using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL), which eventually could constrain the timing of the erosional surfaces.

Estimation of polarization distribution on gold nanorods system from hierarchical features of optical near-field

Science.gov (United States)

Uchiyama, Kazuharu; Nishikawa, Naoki; Nakagomi, Ryo; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi; Hori, Hirokazu

2018-02-01

To design optoelectronic functionalities in nanometer scale based on interactions of electronic system with optical near-fields, it is essential to evaluate the relationship between optical near-fields and their sources. Several theoretical studies have been performed, so far, to analyze such complex relationship to design the interaction fields of several specific scales. In this study, we have performed detailed and high-precision measurements of optical near-field structures woven by a large number of independent polarizations generated in the gold nanorods array under laser light irradiation at the resonant frequency. We have accumulated the multi-layered data of optical near-field imaging at different heights above the planar surface with the resolution of several nm by a STM-assisted scanning near-field optical microscope. Based on these data, we have performed an inverse calculation to estimate the position, direction, and strength of the local polarization buried under the flat surface of the sample. As a result of the inverse operation, we have confirmed that the complexities in the nanometer scale optical near-fields could be reconstructed by combinations of induced polarization in each gold nanorod. We have demonstrated the hierarchical properties of optical near-fields based on spatial frequency expansion and superposition of dipole fields to provide insightful information for applications such for secure multi-layered information storage.

A parameter quantifying radiation damping of bay oscillations excited by incident tsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Endoh, Takahiro; Inazu, Daisuke; Waseda, Takuji; Hibiya, Toshiyuki

2018-04-01

The transient response of a bay with a narrow mouth to incident tsunamis is interpreted as the convolution of the input signal with the impulse response obtained by an inverse Fourier transform of the response curve of the oscillatory system with one degree of freedom. The rate of radiation damping associated with energy escaping seaward through the bay mouth is expressed in terms of the quality factor Q, which determines the decaying envelope of the impulse response. The value of Q of the resonant peak is approximated by the ratio of the resonant frequency ω0 to the bandwidth between frequencies at which the power spectral density of sea level within the bay drops to half of the peak value. Since the shape of the frequency power spectrum during the tsunami event is almost similar to that in the normal state in the neighborhood of ω0, Q can be estimated from sea level datasets in the normal state. Although the amplitude and phase of the impulse response need to be adjusted using the first crest or trough of the observed leading wave, this approach proves to work well in examining the transient responses of Miyako Bay and Kushimoto Bay on the Japanese Pacific coast to incident tsunamis.

No loss of genetic diversity in the exploited and recently collapsed population of Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, L.)

KAUST Repository

Montes, Iratxe; Iriondo, Mikel; Manzano, Carmen; Santos, Maria; Conklin, Darrell; Carvalho, Gary R.; Irigoien, Xabier; Estonba, Andone

2016-01-01

The European anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus, in the Bay of Biscay suffered a collapse in census population size (Nc) starting in 2002, from which it did not recover until 2010. The slow recovery raised concern over sustainability, potential reduction in adaptive potential, and vulnerability to local extirpation. Long- and short-term effective population size (Ne), Ne/Nc ratio, and other genetic parameters were estimated to evaluate demographic signals of population decline. A total of 349 neutral single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were screened in 330 anchovy individuals from the Bay of Biscay distributed across a 20-year period. We show that Nc fluctuations have not significantly affected short-term Ne, and therefore, genetic diversity has remained stable throughout the recent collapse. This study illustrates that Ne estimates should be incorporated into management plans. Our results on short-term Ne suggested that the anchovy in the Bay of Biscay has not faced any recent severe threat of losing evolutionary potential due to genetic drift. However, differences between short- and long-term Ne estimates suggested that the Bay of Biscay anchovy population may be currently much smaller than in the historical past. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

No loss of genetic diversity in the exploited and recently collapsed population of Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, L.)

KAUST Repository

Montes, Iratxe

2016-04-11

The European anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus, in the Bay of Biscay suffered a collapse in census population size (Nc) starting in 2002, from which it did not recover until 2010. The slow recovery raised concern over sustainability, potential reduction in adaptive potential, and vulnerability to local extirpation. Long- and short-term effective population size (Ne), Ne/Nc ratio, and other genetic parameters were estimated to evaluate demographic signals of population decline. A total of 349 neutral single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were screened in 330 anchovy individuals from the Bay of Biscay distributed across a 20-year period. We show that Nc fluctuations have not significantly affected short-term Ne, and therefore, genetic diversity has remained stable throughout the recent collapse. This study illustrates that Ne estimates should be incorporated into management plans. Our results on short-term Ne suggested that the anchovy in the Bay of Biscay has not faced any recent severe threat of losing evolutionary potential due to genetic drift. However, differences between short- and long-term Ne estimates suggested that the Bay of Biscay anchovy population may be currently much smaller than in the historical past. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS AND RELIABILITY FUNCTION OF EXPONENTIATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER GENERAL ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjay Kumar Singh

2011-06-01

Full Text Available In this Paper we propose Bayes estimators of the parameters of Exponentiated Exponential distribution and Reliability functions under General Entropy loss function for Type II censored sample. The proposed estimators have been compared with the corresponding Bayes estimators obtained under Squared Error loss function and maximum likelihood estimators for their simulated risks (average loss over sample space.

Gradient Analysis and Classification of Carolina Bay Vegetation: A Framework for Bay Wetlands Conservation and Restoration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diane De Steven,Ph.D.; Maureen Tone,PhD.

1997-10-01

This report address four project objectives: (1) Gradient model of Carolina bay vegetation on the SRS--The authors use ordination analyses to identify environmental and landscape factors that are correlated with vegetation composition. Significant factors can provide a framework for site-based conservation of existing diversity, and they may also be useful site predictors for potential vegetation in bay restorations. (2) Regional analysis of Carolina bay vegetation diversity--They expand the ordination analyses to assess the degree to which SRS bays encompass the range of vegetation diversity found in the regional landscape of South Carolina's western Upper Coastal Plain. Such comparisons can indicate floristic status relative to regional potentials and identify missing species or community elements that might be re-introduced or restored. (3) Classification of vegetation communities in Upper Coastal Plain bays--They use cluster analysis to identify plant community-types at the regional scale, and explore how this classification may be functional with respect to significant environmental and landscape factors. An environmentally-based classification at the whole-bay level can provide a system of templates for managing bays as individual units and for restoring bays to desired plant communities. (4) Qualitative model for bay vegetation dynamics--They analyze present-day vegetation in relation to historic land uses and disturbances. The distinctive history of SRS bays provides the possibility of assessing pathways of post-disturbance succession. They attempt to develop a coarse-scale model of vegetation shifts in response to changing site factors; such qualitative models can provide a basis for suggesting management interventions that may be needed to maintain desired vegetation in protected or restored bays.

Type Ia Supernova Light Curve Inference: Hierarchical Models for Nearby SN Ia in the Optical and Near Infrared

Science.gov (United States)

Mandel, Kaisey; Kirshner, R. P.; Narayan, G.; Wood-Vasey, W. M.; Friedman, A. S.; Hicken, M.

2010-01-01

I have constructed a comprehensive statistical model for Type Ia supernova light curves spanning optical through near infrared data simultaneously. The near infrared light curves are found to be excellent standard candles (sigma(MH) = 0.11 +/- 0.03 mag) that are less vulnerable to systematic error from dust extinction, a major confounding factor for cosmological studies. A hierarchical statistical framework incorporates coherently multiple sources of randomness and uncertainty, including photometric error, intrinsic supernova light curve variations and correlations, dust extinction and reddening, peculiar velocity dispersion and distances, for probabilistic inference with Type Ia SN light curves. Inferences are drawn from the full probability density over individual supernovae and the SN Ia and dust populations, conditioned on a dataset of SN Ia light curves and redshifts. To compute probabilistic inferences with hierarchical models, I have developed BayeSN, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on Gibbs sampling. This code explores and samples the global probability density of parameters describing individual supernovae and the population. I have applied this hierarchical model to optical and near infrared data of over 100 nearby Type Ia SN from PAIRITEL, the CfA3 sample, and the literature. Using this statistical model, I find that SN with optical and NIR data have a smaller residual scatter in the Hubble diagram than SN with only optical data. The continued study of Type Ia SN in the near infrared will be important for improving their utility as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

46 CFR 7.20 - Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and easterly entrance to Long Island Sound, NY. 7.20 Section 7.20... Atlantic Coast § 7.20 Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island...

The Carolina Bay Restoration Project - Final Report 2000-2006.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barton, Christopher

2007-12-15

A Wetlands Mitigation Bank was established at SRS in 1997 as a compensatory alternative for unavoidable wetland losses. Prior to restoration activities, 16 sites included in the project were surveyed for the SRS Site Use system to serve as a protective covenant. Pre-restoration monitoring ended in Fall 2000, and post restoration monitoring began in the Winter/Spring of 2001. The total interior harvest in the 16 bays after harvesting the trees was 19.6 ha. The margins in the opencanopy, pine savanna margin treatments were thinned. Margins containing areas with immature forested stands (bay 5184 and portions of bay 5011) were thinned using a mechanical shredder in November 2001. Over 126 hectares were included in the study areas (interior + margin). Planting of two tree species and the transplanting of wetland grass species was successful. From field surveys, it was estimated that approximately 2700 Nyssa sylvatica and 1900 Taxodium distichum seedlings were planted in the eight forested bays resulting in an average planting density of ≈ 490 stems ha-1. One hundred seedlings of each species per bay (where available) were marked to evaluate survivability and growth. Wetland grass species were transplanted from donor sites on SRS to plots that ranged in size from 100 – 300 m2, depending on wetland size. On 0.75 and 0.6 meter centers, respectively, 2198 plugs of Panicum hemitomon and 3021 plugs Leersia hexandra were transplanted. New shoots originating from the stumps were treated with a foliar herbicide (Garlon® 4) during the summer of 2001 using backpack sprayers. Preliminary information from 2000-2004 regarding the hydrologic, vegetation and faunal response to restoration is presented in this status report.

33 CFR 165.1182 - Safety/Security Zone: San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Safety/Security Zone: San... Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) PORTS AND WATERWAYS SAFETY... Areas Eleventh Coast Guard District § 165.1182 Safety/Security Zone: San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay...

Nonlinear wave runup in long bays and firths: Samoa 2009 and Tohoku 2011 tsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Didenkulova, I.; Pelinovsky, E.

2012-04-01

paid to the wave breaking criterion. Theoretical estimates of tsunami runup are applied to cases of 2009 Samoa and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. The data of tide-gauges or computed tide-gauges are used to calculate wave runup for two approximations of the bottom topography: a plane beach and for a narrow bay. It is shown that theory of 1D runup on a plane beach underestimate the tsunami runup height and the influence of the narrow bay geometry should be taken into account. The differences in estimated shoreline velocity, travel time and wave breaking regime, calculated in the framework of these two approximations are also discussed. It is concluded that the wave runup in narrow bays should by calculated by the corresponding formulas, which should be taken into account by TEWS.

78 FR 62293 - Safety Zone, Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display, Oyster Bay; Oyster Bay, NY

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-15

... Safety Zone, Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display, Oyster Bay; Oyster Bay, NY AGENCY: Coast... zone on the navigable waters of Oyster Bay near Oyster Bay, NY for the Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary... Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display is scheduled for October 19, 2013 and is one of...

An approach to separating the levels of hierarchical structure building in language and mathematics.

Science.gov (United States)

Makuuchi, Michiru; Bahlmann, Jörg; Friederici, Angela D

2012-07-19

We aimed to dissociate two levels of hierarchical structure building in language and mathematics, namely 'first-level' (the build-up of hierarchical structure with externally given elements) and 'second-level' (the build-up of hierarchical structure with internally represented elements produced by first-level processes). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated these processes in three domains: sentence comprehension, arithmetic calculation (using Reverse Polish notation, which gives two operands followed by an operator) and a working memory control task. All tasks required the build-up of hierarchical structures at the first- and second-level, resulting in a similar computational hierarchy across language and mathematics, as well as in a working memory control task. Using a novel method that estimates the difference in the integration cost for conditions of different trial durations, we found an anterior-to-posterior functional organization in the prefrontal cortex, according to the level of hierarchy. Common to all domains, the ventral premotor cortex (PMv) supports first-level hierarchy building, while the dorsal pars opercularis (POd) subserves second-level hierarchy building, with lower activation for language compared with the other two tasks. These results suggest that the POd and the PMv support domain-general mechanisms for hierarchical structure building, with the POd being uniquely efficient for language.

Intensity estimation of historical earthquakes through seismic analysis of wooden house

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, I. K.; Soe, J. M.

1999-01-01

The intensity of historical earthquake records related with house collapses are estimated by the seismic analyses of traditional three-bay-straw-roof house. Eighteen artificial time histories for magnitudes 6-8, epicentral distances 5 km - 350 km and hard and soft soil condition were generated for the analyses. Nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed for a traditional three-bay-roof house. Damage level of the wooden house according to the input earthquake motions and the MM intensity were estimated by maximum displacement response at the top of columns. Considering the structural characteristics of the three-bay-straw-roof house, the largest historical earthquake record related to the house collapse is about MMI VIII

Influence of ship emission on atmospheric pollutant concentration around Osaka Bay, Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondo, A.; Yamaguchi, K.; Nishikawa, E.

1999-01-01

Marine traffic in Osaka Bay is very intensified and much atmosphere pollutant (SO x and NO x ) from ships is released but there is no regulation about the ship emission. In this paper, we investigated the emission amounts of SO x NO x and HC from car, factory and ships in Osaka bay area and estimated the influence of the ship emission on the atmospheric pollutant concentration, using both the meteorological prediction model and the atmospheric pollutant concentration prediction model including the dry deposition and the chemical reaction. In Osaka bay area, the emission amounts of SO x and NO x from ships were about 30% of the total emission amounts, respectively. Using these emission data, the atmospheric pollutant concentration was simulated on a summer fine day when high oxidant concentration was measured at several observatories and was compared with the observed data. Though some differences were seen between the simulated results and the observed data, the diurnal variation agreed reasonably. The second simulation was carried out except for the ship emission and we estimated the influence of the ship emission on the atmospheric pollutant concentration. It was found that the ship emission raised SO 2 , NO 2 and NO concentration not only in shore area but also in 40km inland. (Author)

Sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Chesapeake Bay watershed-An empirical model

Science.gov (United States)

Ator, Scott W.; Brakebill, John W.; Blomquist, Joel D.

2011-01-01

Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) was used to provide empirical estimates of the sources, fate, and transport of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and the mean annual TN and TP flux to the bay and in each of 80,579 nontidal tributary stream reaches. Restoration efforts in recent decades have been insufficient to meet established standards for water quality and ecological conditions in Chesapeake Bay. The bay watershed includes 166,000 square kilometers of mixed land uses, multiple nutrient sources, and variable hydrogeologic, soil, and weather conditions, and bay restoration is complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources and complex interacting factors affecting the occurrence, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus from source areas to streams and the estuary. Effective and efficient nutrient management at the regional scale in support of Chesapeake Bay restoration requires a comprehensive understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed, which is only available through regional models. The current models, Chesapeake Bay nutrient SPARROW models, version 4 (CBTN_v4 and CBTP_v4), were constructed at a finer spatial resolution than previous SPARROW models for the Chesapeake Bay watershed (versions 1, 2, and 3), and include an updated timeframe and modified sources and other explantory terms.

Neutrosophic Hierarchical Clustering Algoritms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rıdvan Şahin

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Interval neutrosophic set (INS is a generalization of interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS, whose the membership and non-membership values of elements consist of fuzzy range, while single valued neutrosophic set (SVNS is regarded as extension of intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS. In this paper, we extend the hierarchical clustering techniques proposed for IFSs and IVIFSs to SVNSs and INSs respectively. Based on the traditional hierarchical clustering procedure, the single valued neutrosophic aggregation operator, and the basic distance measures between SVNSs, we define a single valued neutrosophic hierarchical clustering algorithm for clustering SVNSs. Then we extend the algorithm to classify an interval neutrosophic data. Finally, we present some numerical examples in order to show the effectiveness and availability of the developed clustering algorithms.

eBay.com

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engholm, Ida

2014-01-01

Celebrated as one of the leading and most valuable brands in the world, eBay has acquired iconic status on par with century-old brands such as Coca-Cola and Disney. The eBay logo is now synonymous with the world’s leading online auction website, and its design is associated with the company...

Numerical modelling of tides and storm surges in the Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sindhu, B.

were done. A storm surge model was developed to simulate total water levels and derived surges caused by low pressure systems identified during the past 27 years (1974-2000) in the Bay of Bengal. Study also estimated the return levels of extreme sea...

Discharge between San Antonio Bay and Aransas Bay, southern Gulf Coast, Texas, May-September 1999

Science.gov (United States)

East, Jeffery W.

2001-01-01

Along the Gulf Coast of Texas, many estuaries and bays are important habitat and nurseries for aquatic life. San Antonio Bay and Aransas Bay, located about 50 and 30 miles northeast, respectively, of Corpus Christi, are two important estuarine nurseries on the southern Gulf Coast of Texas (fig. 1). According to the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, “Almost 80 percent of the seagrasses [along the Texas Gulf Coast] are located in the Laguna Madre, an estuary that begins just south of Corpus Christi Bay and runs southward 140 miles to South Padre Island. Most of the remaining seagrasses, about 45,000 acres, are located in the heavily traveled San Antonio, Aransas and Corpus Christi Bay areas” (Shook, 2000).Population growth has led to greater demands on water supplies in Texas. The Texas Water Development Board, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, and the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission have the cooperative task of determining inflows required to maintain the ecological health of the State’s streams, rivers, bays, and estuaries. To determine these inflow requirements, the three agencies collect data and conduct studies on the need for instream flows and freshwater/ saline water inflows to Texas estuaries.To assist in the determination of freshwater inflow requirements, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, conducted a hydrographic survey of discharge (flow) between San Antonio Bay and Aransas Bay during the period May–September 1999. Automated instrumentation and acoustic technology were used to maximize the amount and quality of data that were collected, while minimizing personnel requirements. This report documents the discharge measured at two sites between the bays during May–September 1999 and describes the influences of meteorologic (wind and tidal) and hydrologic (freshwater inflow) conditions on discharge between the two bays. The movement of water between the bays is

The Hierarchical Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Sofron

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper is focused on the hierarchical perspective, one of the methods for representing space that was used before the discovery of the Renaissance linear perspective. The hierarchical perspective has a more or less pronounced scientific character and its study offers us a clear image of the way the representatives of the cultures that developed it used to perceive the sensitive reality. This type of perspective is an original method of representing three-dimensional space on a flat surface, which characterises the art of Ancient Egypt and much of the art of the Middle Ages, being identified in the Eastern European Byzantine art, as well as in the Western European Pre-Romanesque and Romanesque art. At the same time, the hierarchical perspective is also present in naive painting and infantile drawing. Reminiscences of this method can be recognised also in the works of some precursors of the Italian Renaissance. The hierarchical perspective can be viewed as a subjective ranking criterion, according to which the elements are visually represented by taking into account their relevance within the image while perception is ignored. This paper aims to show how the main objective of the artists of those times was not to faithfully represent the objective reality, but rather to emphasize the essence of the world and its perennial aspects. This may represent a possible explanation for the refusal of perspective in the Egyptian, Romanesque and Byzantine painting, characterised by a marked two-dimensionality.

Comparisons of Flow Patterns over a Hierarchical and a Non-hierarchical Surface in Relation to Biofouling Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin Ahmad Fawzan Mohammed Ridha

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Biofouling can be defined as unwanted deposition and development of organisms on submerged surfaces. It is a major problem as it causes water contamination, infrastructures damage and increase in maintenance and operational cost especially in the shipping industry. There are a few methods that can prevent this problem. One of the most effective methods which is using chemicals particularly Tributyltin has been banned due to adverse effects on the environment. One of the non-toxic methods found to be effective is surface modification which involves altering the surface topography so that it becomes a low-fouling or a non-stick surface to biofouling organisms. Current literature suggested that non-hierarchical topographies has lower antifouling performance compared to hierarchical topographies. It is still unclear if the effects of the flow on these topographies could have aided in their antifouling properties. This research will use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD simulations to study the flow on these two topographies which also involves comparison study of the topographies used. According to the results obtained, it is shown that hierarchical topography has higher antifouling performance compared to non-hierarchical topography. This is because the fluid characteristics at the hierarchical topography is more favorable in controlling biofouling. In addition, hierarchical topography has higher wall shear stress distribution compared to non-hierarchical topography

Saldanha Bay, South Africa I: the use of ocean colour remote ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The efficacy of ocean colour remote sensing in assessing the variability of phytoplankton biomass within Saldanha Bay is examined. Satellite estimates of chlorophyll a (Chl a) were obtained using the maximum peak-height (MPH) algorithm on full-resolution (300 m) data from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer ...

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

OpenAIRE

Yi Huang; Francesca Dominici; Michelle Bell

2004-01-01

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP ...

Mercury dynamics in a coastal aquifer: Maunalua Bay, O´ahu, Hawai´i

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguli, Priya M.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Dulaiova, Henrieta; Glenn, Craig R.; Flegal, A. Russell

2014-03-01

We evaluated the influence of groundwater-seawater interaction on mercury dynamics in Maunalua Bay, a coral reef ecosystem located on the south shore of O´ahu, Hawai´i, by combining geochemical data with submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) rates. During a rising tide, unfiltered total mercury (U-HgT) concentrations in seawater increased from ˜6 to 20 pM at Black Point (west Bay) and from ˜2.5 to 8 pM at Niu (central Bay). We attribute this change to an increase in suspended particulate matter at high tide. Approximately 90% of mercury in groundwater at Niu was in the filtered (weighted average Maunalua Bay groundwater mercury flux of 0.68 ± 0.67 mol yr-1 by combining the proportional flux of F-HgT from three distinct SGD zones, and place these results into a broader context by comparing and contrasting flux estimates from locations around the world. Results from existing SGD studies should be evaluated to develop future sampling strategies that address more targeted questions about mercury biogeochemical cycling at the groundwater-seawater interface.

Annual sediment flux estimates in a tidal strait using surrogate measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2006-01-01

Annual suspended-sediment flux estimates through Carquinez Strait (the seaward boundary of Suisun Bay, California) are provided based on surrogate measurements for advective, dispersive, and Stokes drift flux. The surrogates are landward watershed discharge, suspended-sediment concentration at one location in the Strait, and the longitudinal salinity gradient. The first two surrogates substitute for tidally averaged discharge and velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration in the Strait, thereby providing advective flux estimates, while Stokes drift is estimated with suspended-sediment concentration alone. Dispersive flux is estimated using the product of longitudinal salinity gradient and the root-mean-square value of velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration as an added surrogate variable. Cross-sectional measurements validated the use of surrogates during the monitoring period. During high freshwater flow advective and dispersive flux were in the seaward direction, while landward dispersive flux dominated and advective flux approached zero during low freshwater flow. Stokes drift flux was consistently in the landward direction. Wetter than average years led to net export from Suisun Bay, while dry years led to net sediment import. Relatively low watershed sediment fluxes to Suisun Bay contribute to net export during the wet season, while gravitational circulation in Carquinez Strait and higher suspended-sediment concentrations in San Pablo Bay (seaward end of Carquinez Strait) are responsible for the net import of sediment during the dry season. Annual predictions of suspended-sediment fluxes, using these methods, will allow for a sediment budget for Suisun Bay, which has implications for marsh restoration and nutrient/contaminant transport. These methods also provide a general framework for estimating sediment fluxes in estuarine environments, where temporal and spatial variability of transport are large. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in sediments of Placentia Bay, Newfoundland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiceniuk, J.W.

1992-01-01

A study was conducted to examine the potential for contamination of recent sediments with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons due to tanker and refinery activity in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland, an area without large local anthropogenic sources of aromatics. Sediment samples were taken from the vicinity of the Come By Chance refinery, Woody Island, Wild Cove, and Port Royal Arm, all in the north end of the bay. The samples were extracted by two methods, dichloromethane extraction of dried sediment for determination of total aromatic hydrocarbon content and hexane extraction of wet sediment for estimation of the bioavailability of hydrocarbons and determination of more volatile compounds. Class analysis of aromatic hydrocarbons was conducted on a NH 2 column with detection at 255 nm. Total concentrations of di-tricyclic aromatics were highest at the Woody Island site (0.6 μg/g). The sediments from the Come By Chance site, Wild Cove, and Port Royal Arm sediments contained 0.3, 0.1, and 0.2 μg/g respectively. The hexane extracts from Come By Chance were lowest in di-tricyclic aromatics (0.007 μg/g), with the other sites being equal in concentration (0.01 μg/g). It is evident from the study that aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in Placentia Bay are elevated in some parts of the bay in the absence of local combustion sources, and that the most likely source is petroleum. 12 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

Adaptive hierarchical grid model of water-borne pollutant dispersion

Science.gov (United States)

Borthwick, A. G. L.; Marchant, R. D.; Copeland, G. J. M.

Water pollution by industrial and agricultural waste is an increasingly major public health issue. It is therefore important for water engineers and managers to be able to predict accurately the local behaviour of water-borne pollutants. This paper describes the novel and efficient coupling of dynamically adaptive hierarchical grids with standard solvers of the advection-diffusion equation. Adaptive quadtree grids are able to focus on regions of interest such as pollutant fronts, while retaining economy in the total number of grid elements through selective grid refinement. Advection is treated using Lagrangian particle tracking. Diffusion is solved separately using two grid-based methods; one is by explicit finite differences, the other a diffusion-velocity approach. Results are given in two dimensions for pure diffusion of an initially Gaussian plume, advection-diffusion of the Gaussian plume in the rotating flow field of a forced vortex, and the transport of species in a rectangular channel with side wall boundary layers. Close agreement is achieved with analytical solutions of the advection-diffusion equation and simulations from a Lagrangian random walk model. An application to Sepetiba Bay, Brazil is included to demonstrate the method with complex flows and topography.

Adaptive hierarchical multi-agent organizations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghijsen, M.; Jansweijer, W.N.H.; Wielinga, B.J.; Babuška, R.; Groen, F.C.A.

2010-01-01

In this chapter, we discuss the design of adaptive hierarchical organizations for multi-agent systems (MAS). Hierarchical organizations have a number of advantages such as their ability to handle complex problems and their scalability to large organizations. By introducing adaptivity in the

75 FR 11837 - Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-12

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Commodity Credit Corporation Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative AGENCY...: Notice of availability of program funds for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative. SUMMARY: The... through the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative for agricultural producers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed...

Urban Greening Bay Area

Science.gov (United States)

Information about the San Francisco Bay Water Quality Project (SFBWQP) Urban Greening Bay Area, a large-scale effort to re-envision urban landscapes to include green infrastructure (GI) making communities more livable and reducing stormwater runoff.

A hierarchical instrumental decision theory of nicotine dependence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogarth, Lee; Troisi, Joseph R

2015-01-01

It is important to characterize the learning processes governing tobacco-seeking in order to understand how best to treat this behavior. Most drug learning theories have adopted a Pavlovian framework wherein the conditioned response is the main motivational process. We favor instead a hierarchical instrumental decision account, wherein expectations about the instrumental contingency between voluntary tobacco-seeking and the receipt of nicotine reward determines the probability of executing this behavior. To support this view, we review titration and nicotine discrimination research showing that internal signals for deprivation/satiation modulate expectations about the current incentive value of smoking, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. We also review research on cue-reactivity which has shown that external smoking cues modulate expectations about the probability of the tobacco-seeking response being effective, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. Economic decision theory is then considered to elucidate how expectations about the value and probability of response-nicotine contingency are integrated to form an overall utility estimate for that option for comparison with qualitatively different, nonsubstitute reinforcers, to determine response selection. As an applied test for this hierarchical instrumental decision framework, we consider how well it accounts for individual liability to smoking uptake and perseveration, pharmacotherapy, cue-extinction therapies, and plain packaging. We conclude that the hierarchical instrumental account is successful in reconciling this broad range of phenomenon precisely because it accepts that multiple diverse sources of internal and external information must be integrated to shape the decision to smoke.

USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, K.K.; Cronin, T. M.; Crane, M.; Hansen, M.; Nayeghandi, A.; Swarzenski, P.; Edgar, T.; Brooks, G.R.; Suthard, B.; Hine, A.; Locker, S.; Willard, D.A.; Hastings, D.; Flower, B.; Hollander, D.; Larson, R.A.; Smith, K.

2007-01-01

Many of the nation's estuaries have been environmentally stressed since the turn of the 20th century and will continue to be impacted in the future. Tampa Bay, one the Gulf of Mexico's largest estuaries, exemplifies the threats that our estuaries face (EPA Report 2001, Tampa Bay Estuary Program-Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (TBEP-CCMP)). More than 2 million people live in the Tampa Bay watershed, and the population constitutes to grow. Demand for freshwater resources, conversion of undeveloped areas to resident and industrial uses, increases in storm-water runoff, and increased air pollution from urban and industrial sources are some of the known human activities that impact Tampa Bay. Beginning on 2001, additional anthropogenic modifications began in Tampa Bat including construction of an underwater gas pipeline and a desalinization plant, expansion of existing ports, and increased freshwater withdrawal from three major tributaries to the bay. In January of 2001, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) and its partners identifies a critical need for participation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in providing multidisciplinary expertise and a regional-scale, integrated science approach to address complex scientific research issue and critical scientific information gaps that are necessary for continued restoration and preservation of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay stakeholders identified several critical science gaps for which USGS expertise was needed (Yates et al. 2001). These critical science gaps fall under four topical categories (or system components): 1) water and sediment quality, 2) hydrodynamics, 3) geology and geomorphology, and 4) ecosystem structure and function. Scientists and resource managers participating in Tampa Bay studies recognize that it is no longer sufficient to simply examine each of these estuarine system components individually, Rather, the interrelation among system components must be understood to develop conceptual and

Concentration of PSP (Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning) Toxin On Shellfish From Inner Ambon Bay and Kao Bay North Halmahera

Science.gov (United States)

Pello, F. S.; Haumahu, S.; Huliselan, N. V.; Tuapattinaja, M. A.

2017-10-01

The Inner Ambon Bay and Kao Bay have potential on fisheries resources which one of them is molluscs. Molluscs especially for class bivalve have economical values and are consumed by coastal community. The research had been done to analyze saxitoxin (STX) concentration on bivalves from Kao Bay and Inner Ambon Bay. The Saxitoxin Elisa Test Kit Protocol was used to determine saxitoxin concentration. The measurement showed that the highest concentration of saxitoxin (392.42 µg STXeq/100g shellfish meat) was Gafrarium tumidum from Ambon Bay, whereas concentration of saxitoxin (321.83 µg STXeq/100g shellfish meat) was Mactra mera from Kao Bay

Marine littoral diatoms from the Gordon’s bay region of False Bay, Cape Province, South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Giffen, MH

1971-01-01

Full Text Available and Comic/i for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria (Received: 5.2. 1970) The Gordon?s Bay region occupies the north western corner of False Bay, a large rectangular bay, bounded on the west by the Cape Peninsula ending at Cape Point...

Accident assessment under emergency situation in Daya Bay nuclear power station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Ling; Chen Degan; Lin Shumou; Fu Guohui

2004-01-01

The accident assessment under emergency situation includes the accident status evaluation and its consequence estimation. This paper introduces evaluation methods for accident status and its assistant computer system (SESAME-GNP) utilized during the emergency situation in Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station (GNPS) in detail. At the same time, an improved accident consequence estimation system in GNPS (RACAS-GNP) is briefly described. With the improvement of the accident assessment systems, the capability of emergency response in GNPS is strengthened

Temporal and spatial distribution of beryllium-7 in the sediments of Chesapeake Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dibb, J.E.; Rice, D.L.

1989-01-01

The sediment inventory of 7 Be was determined at six stations in the main stem of Chesapeake Bay nine times between April, 1986, and September, 1987. The inventories ranged from -2 . Comparison to the atmospherically supported 7 Be inventory (range 2-4 dpm cm -2 ) showed significant focusing of 7 Be in the sediments in the zone of the turbidity maximum during the summer, and suggested that the spatial distribution of 7 Be in the lower Bay apparently had a recurrence frequency greater than the sampling frequency in this investigation. The temporal pattern of 7 Be accumulation at the six stations over the first year of this investigation allowed estimation of sedimentation rates, which suggested that the processes governing the distribution of 7 Be in Chesapeake Bay sediments were similar to the processes determining sedimentation patterns over about the past 100 years. (author)

Biodiversity inventories and conservation of the marine fishes of Bootless Bay, Papua New Guinea

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background The effective management and conservation of biodiversity is predicated on clearly defined conservation targets. Species number is frequently used as a metric for conservation prioritization and monitoring changes in ecosystem health. We conducted a series of synoptic surveys focusing on the fishes of the Bootless Bay region of Papua New Guinea to generate a checklist of fishes of the region. Bootless Bay lies directly south of Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea, and experiences the highest human population density of any marine area in the country. Our checklist will set a baseline against which future environmental changes can be tracked. Results We generated a checklist of 488 fish species in 72 families found in Bootless Bay during a two-week sampling effort. Using incident-based methods of species estimation, we extrapolate there to be approximately 940 fish species in Bootless Bay, one of the lowest reported numbers in Papua New Guinea. Conclusions Our data suggest that the Bootless Bay ecosystem of Papua New Guinea, while diverse in absolute terms, has lower fish biodiversity compared to other shallow marine areas within the country. These differences in faunal diversity are most likely a combination of unequal sampling effort as well as biophysical factors within Bootless Bay compounded by historical and/or contemporary anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:22849436

Biodiversity inventories and conservation of the marine fishes of Bootless Bay, Papua New Guinea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drew Joshua A

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The effective management and conservation of biodiversity is predicated on clearly defined conservation targets. Species number is frequently used as a metric for conservation prioritization and monitoring changes in ecosystem health. We conducted a series of synoptic surveys focusing on the fishes of the Bootless Bay region of Papua New Guinea to generate a checklist of fishes of the region. Bootless Bay lies directly south of Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea, and experiences the highest human population density of any marine area in the country. Our checklist will set a baseline against which future environmental changes can be tracked. Results We generated a checklist of 488 fish species in 72 families found in Bootless Bay during a two-week sampling effort. Using incident-based methods of species estimation, we extrapolate there to be approximately 940 fish species in Bootless Bay, one of the lowest reported numbers in Papua New Guinea. Conclusions Our data suggest that the Bootless Bay ecosystem of Papua New Guinea, while diverse in absolute terms, has lower fish biodiversity compared to other shallow marine areas within the country. These differences in faunal diversity are most likely a combination of unequal sampling effort as well as biophysical factors within Bootless Bay compounded by historical and/or contemporary anthropogenic disturbances.

Description of gravity cores from San Pablo Bay and Carquinez Strait, San Francisco Bay, California

Science.gov (United States)

Woodrow, Donald L.; John L. Chin,; Wong, Florence L.; Fregoso, Theresa A.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-06-27

Seventy-two gravity cores were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1990, 1991, and 2000 from San Pablo Bay and Carquinez Strait, California. The gravity cores collected within San Pablo Bay contain bioturbated laminated silts and sandy clays, whole and broken bivalve shells (mostly mussels), fossil tube structures, and fine-grained plant or wood fragments. Gravity cores from the channel wall of Carquinez Strait east of San Pablo Bay consist of sand and clay layers, whole and broken bivalve shells (less than in San Pablo Bay), trace fossil tubes, and minute fragments of plant material.

Hierarchical video summarization

Science.gov (United States)

Ratakonda, Krishna; Sezan, M. Ibrahim; Crinon, Regis J.

1998-12-01

We address the problem of key-frame summarization of vide in the absence of any a priori information about its content. This is a common problem that is encountered in home videos. We propose a hierarchical key-frame summarization algorithm where a coarse-to-fine key-frame summary is generated. A hierarchical key-frame summary facilitates multi-level browsing where the user can quickly discover the content of the video by accessing its coarsest but most compact summary and then view a desired segment of the video with increasingly more detail. At the finest level, the summary is generated on the basis of color features of video frames, using an extension of a recently proposed key-frame extraction algorithm. The finest level key-frames are recursively clustered using a novel pairwise K-means clustering approach with temporal consecutiveness constraint. We also address summarization of MPEG-2 compressed video without fully decoding the bitstream. We also propose efficient mechanisms that facilitate decoding the video when the hierarchical summary is utilized in browsing and playback of video segments starting at selected key-frames.

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

Science.gov (United States)

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

Rapid sedimentation of iron oxyhydroxides in an active hydrothermal shallow semi-enclosed bay at Satsuma Iwo-Jima Island, Kagoshima, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Kiyokawa, Shoichi; Ueshiba, Takuya

2015-04-01

Hydrothermal activity is common in the fishing port of Nagahama Bay, a small semi-enclosed bay located on the southwest coast of Satsuma Iwo-Jima Island (38 km south of Kyushu Island, Japan). The bay contains red-brown iron oxyhydroxides and thick deposits of sediment. In this work, the high concentration and sedimentation rates of oxyhydroxide in this bay were studied and the sedimentary history was reconstructed. Since dredging work in 1998, a thickness of 1.0-1.5 m of iron oxyhydroxide-rich sediments has accumulated on the floor of the bay. To estimate the volume of iron oxyhydroxide sediments and the amount discharged from hydrothermal vents, sediment traps were operated for several years and 13 sedimentary core samples were collected to reconstruct the 10-year sedimentary history of Nagahama Bay. To confirm the timing of sedimentary events, the core data were compared with meteorological records obtained on the island, and the ages of characteristic key beds were thus identified. The sedimentation rate of iron oxyhydroxide mud was calculated, after correcting for sediment input from other sources. The sediments in the 13 cores from Nagahama Bay consist mainly of iron oxyhydroxide mud, three thick tephra beds, and a topmost thick sandy mud bed. Heavy rainfall events in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004-2005 coincide with tephra beds, which were reworked from Iwo-Dake ash deposits to form tephra-rich sediment. Strong typhoon events with gigantic waves transported outer-ocean-floor sediments and supplied quartz, cristobalite, tridymite, and albite sands to Nagahama Bay. These materials were redeposited together with bay sediments as the sandy mud bed. Based on the results from the sediment traps and cores, it is estimated that the iron oxyhydroxide mud accumulated in the bay at the relatively rapid rate of 33.3 cm/year (from traps) and 2.8-4.9 cm/year (from cores). The pore water contents within the sediment trap and core sediments are 73%-82% and 47%-67%, respectively

75 FR 15343 - Regulated Navigation Area: Narragansett Bay, RI and Mount Hope Bay, RI and MA, Including the...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-29

...: Narragansett Bay, RI and Mount Hope Bay, RI and MA, Including the Providence River and Taunton River AGENCY... River and Mount Hope Bay in the vicinity of the two Brightman Street bridges have not been adopted and... Island and Mt. Hope Bay, MA.'' The notice was prompted primarily by two events: (1) The U.S. Army Corps...

Statistical modelling of railway track geometry degradation using Hierarchical Bayesian models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrade, A.R.; Teixeira, P.F.

2015-01-01

Railway maintenance planners require a predictive model that can assess the railway track geometry degradation. The present paper uses a Hierarchical Bayesian model as a tool to model the main two quality indicators related to railway track geometry degradation: the standard deviation of longitudinal level defects and the standard deviation of horizontal alignment defects. Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBM) are flexible statistical models that allow specifying different spatially correlated components between consecutive track sections, namely for the deterioration rates and the initial qualities parameters. HBM are developed for both quality indicators, conducting an extensive comparison between candidate models and a sensitivity analysis on prior distributions. HBM is applied to provide an overall assessment of the degradation of railway track geometry, for the main Portuguese railway line Lisbon–Oporto. - Highlights: • Rail track geometry degradation is analysed using Hierarchical Bayesian models. • A Gibbs sampling strategy is put forward to estimate the HBM. • Model comparison and sensitivity analysis find the most suitable model. • We applied the most suitable model to all the segments of the main Portuguese line. • Tackling spatial correlations using CAR structures lead to a better model fit

Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grimm, J.W.; Lynch, J.A.

2005-01-01

Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8 km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8 km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate. - A linear least-squares regression approach was used to develop daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Inferring on the Intentions of Others by Hierarchical Bayesian Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Diaconescu, Andreea O.; Mathys, Christoph; Weber, Lilian A. E.; Daunizeau, Jean; Kasper, Lars; Lomakina, Ekaterina I.; Fehr, Ernst; Stephan, Klaas E.

2014-01-01

Inferring on others' (potentially time-varying) intentions is a fundamental problem during many social transactions. To investigate the underlying mechanisms, we applied computational modeling to behavioral data from an economic game in which 16 pairs of volunteers (randomly assigned to “player” or “adviser” roles) interacted. The player performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning task, receiving information about a binary lottery from a visual pie chart. The adviser, who received more predictive information, issued an additional recommendation. Critically, the game was structured such that the adviser's incentives to provide helpful or misleading information varied in time. Using a meta-Bayesian modeling framework, we found that the players' behavior was best explained by the deployment of hierarchical learning: they inferred upon the volatility of the advisers' intentions in order to optimize their predictions about the validity of their advice. Beyond learning, volatility estimates also affected the trial-by-trial variability of decisions: participants were more likely to rely on their estimates of advice accuracy for making choices when they believed that the adviser's intentions were presently stable. Finally, our model of the players' inference predicted the players' interpersonal reactivity index (IRI) scores, explicit ratings of the advisers' helpfulness and the advisers' self-reports on their chosen strategy. Overall, our results suggest that humans (i) employ hierarchical generative models to infer on the changing intentions of others, (ii) use volatility estimates to inform decision-making in social interactions, and (iii) integrate estimates of advice accuracy with non-social sources of information. The Bayesian framework presented here can quantify individual differences in these mechanisms from simple behavioral readouts and may prove useful in future clinical studies of maladaptive social cognition. PMID:25187943

Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of Biased Beliefs and Distributional Other-Regarding Preferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeroen Weesie

2013-02-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the relationship between an actor’s beliefs about others’ other-regarding (social preferences and her own other-regarding preferences, using an “avant-garde” hierarchical Bayesian method. We estimate two distributional other-regarding preference parameters, α and β, of actors using incentivized choice data in binary Dictator Games. Simultaneously, we estimate the distribution of actors’ beliefs about others α and β, conditional on actors’ own α and β, with incentivized belief elicitation. We demonstrate the benefits of the Bayesian method compared to it’s hierarchical frequentist counterparts. Results show a positive association between an actor’s own (α; β and her beliefs about average(α; β in the population. The association between own preferences and the variance in beliefs about others’ preferences in the population, however, is curvilinear for α and insignificant for β. These results are partially consistent with the cone effect [1,2] which is described in detail below. Because in the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept, beliefs and own preferences are assumed to be independent, these results cast doubt on the application of the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept to experimental data.

A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. I. Biological model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot

2004-01-01

that really uses all these methodological improvements. In this paper, the biological model describing the performance and feed intake of sows is presented. In particular, estimation of herd specific parameters is emphasized. The optimization model is described in a subsequent paper......Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological...... improvements like multi-level hierarchical Markov processes with decisions on multiple time scales, efficient methods for parameter estimations at herd level and standard software that has been hardly implemented at all in any replacement model. The aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model...

Hierarchical self-organization of non-cooperating individuals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamás Nepusz

Full Text Available Hierarchy is one of the most conspicuous features of numerous natural, technological and social systems. The underlying structures are typically complex and their most relevant organizational principle is the ordering of the ties among the units they are made of according to a network displaying hierarchical features. In spite of the abundant presence of hierarchy no quantitative theoretical interpretation of the origins of a multi-level, knowledge-based social network exists. Here we introduce an approach which is capable of reproducing the emergence of a multi-levelled network structure based on the plausible assumption that the individuals (representing the nodes of the network can make the right estimate about the state of their changing environment to a varying degree. Our model accounts for a fundamental feature of knowledge-based organizations: the less capable individuals tend to follow those who are better at solving the problems they all face. We find that relatively simple rules lead to hierarchical self-organization and the specific structures we obtain possess the two, perhaps most important features of complex systems: a simultaneous presence of adaptability and stability. In addition, the performance (success score of the emerging networks is significantly higher than the average expected score of the individuals without letting them copy the decisions of the others. The results of our calculations are in agreement with a related experiment and can be useful from the point of designing the optimal conditions for constructing a given complex social structure as well as understanding the hierarchical organization of such biological structures of major importance as the regulatory pathways or the dynamics of neural networks.

Bias correction in the hierarchical likelihood approach to the analysis of multivariate survival data.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeon, Jihyoun; Hsu, Li; Gorfine, Malka

2012-07-01

Frailty models are useful for measuring unobserved heterogeneity in risk of failures across clusters, providing cluster-specific risk prediction. In a frailty model, the latent frailties shared by members within a cluster are assumed to act multiplicatively on the hazard function. In order to obtain parameter and frailty variate estimates, we consider the hierarchical likelihood (H-likelihood) approach (Ha, Lee and Song, 2001. Hierarchical-likelihood approach for frailty models. Biometrika 88, 233-243) in which the latent frailties are treated as "parameters" and estimated jointly with other parameters of interest. We find that the H-likelihood estimators perform well when the censoring rate is low, however, they are substantially biased when the censoring rate is moderate to high. In this paper, we propose a simple and easy-to-implement bias correction method for the H-likelihood estimators under a shared frailty model. We also extend the method to a multivariate frailty model, which incorporates complex dependence structure within clusters. We conduct an extensive simulation study and show that the proposed approach performs very well for censoring rates as high as 80%. We also illustrate the method with a breast cancer data set. Since the H-likelihood is the same as the penalized likelihood function, the proposed bias correction method is also applicable to the penalized likelihood estimators.

Modeling the fate of p,p'-DDT in water and sediment of two typical estuarine bays in South China: Importance of fishing vessels' inputs.

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Shu-Ming; Zhang, Xianming; Bao, Lian-Jun; Zeng, Eddy Y

2016-05-01

Antifouling paint applied to fishing vessels is the primary source of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) to the coastal marine environments of China. With the aim to provide science-based support of potential regulations on DDT use in antifouling paint, we utilized a fugacity-based model to evaluate the fate and impact of p,p'-DDT, the dominant component of DDT mixture, in Daya Bay and Hailing Bay, two typical estuarine bays in South China. The emissions of p,p'-DDT from fishing vessels to the aquatic environments of Hailing Bay and Daya Bay were estimated as 9.3 and 7.7 kg yr(-1), respectively. Uncertainty analysis indicated that the temporal variability of p,p'-DDT was well described by the model if fishing vessels were considered as the only direct source, i.e., fishing vessels should be the dominant source of p,p'-DDT in coastal bay areas of China. Estimated hazard quotients indicated that sediment in Hailing Bay posed high risk to the aquatic system, and it would take at least 21 years to reduce the hazards to a safe level. Moreover, p,p'-DDT tends to migrate from water to sediment in the entire Hailing Bay and Daya Bay. On the other hand, our previous research indicated that p,p'-DDT was more likely to migrate from sediment to water in the maricultured zones located in shallow waters of these two bays, where fishing vessels frequently remain. These findings suggest that relocating mariculture zones to deeper waters would reduce the likelihood of farmed fish contamination by p,p'-DDT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stable-isotope analysis of canvasback winter diet in upper Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Haramis, G.M.; Jorde, Dennis G.; Macko, S.A.; Walker, J.L.

2001-01-01

A major decline in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay has altered the diet of wintering Canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) from historically plant to a combination of benthic animal foods, especially the ubiquitous Baltic clam (Macoma balthica), supplemented with anthropogenic corn (Zea mays). Because the isotopic signature of corn is readily discriminated from bay benthos, but not SAV, we used stable-isotope methodology to investigate the corn–SAV component of the winter diet of Canvasbacks. Feeding trials with penned Canvasbacks were conducted to establish turnover rates and fractionation end-point loci of δ13C and δ15N signatures of whole blood for individual ducks fed ad libitum diets of (1) Baltic clams, (2) Baltic clams and corn, and (3) tubers of wild celery (Vallisneria americana). Turnover time constants averaged 4.5 weeks, indicating that signatures of wild ducks would be representative of bay diets by late February. Isotopic signatures of wild Canvasbacks sampled in February fell on a continuum between end-point loci for the Baltic clam and the combination Baltic clam and corn diet. Although that finding verifies a clear dependence on corn–SAV for wintering Canvasbacks, it also reveals that not enough corn–SAV is available to establish ad libitum consumption for the 15,000+ Canvasbacks wintering in the upper bay. On the basis of mean δ13C signature of bay Canvasbacks (n = 59) and ingestion rates from feeding trials, we estimated that 258 kg corn per day would account for the observed δ13C enrichment and supply 18% of daily energetic needs for 15,000 Canvasbacks. That level of corn availability is so realistic that we conclude that SAV is likely of little dietary importance to Canvasbacks in that portion of the bay.

Genetic stock compositions and natal origin of green turtle (Chelonia mydas foraging at Brunei Bay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juanita Joseph

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of genetics composition and growth stages of endangered green turtles, as well as the connectivity between nesting and foraging grounds is important for effective conservation. A total of 42 green turtles were captured at Brunei Bay with curved carapace length ranging from 43.8 to 102.0 cm, and most sampled individuals were adults and large juveniles. Twelve haplotypes were revealed in mitochondrial DNA control region sequences. Most haplotypes contained identical sequences to haplotypes previously found in rookeries in the Western Pacific, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity indices of the Brunei Bay were 0.8444±0.0390 and 0.009350±0.004964, respectively. Mixed-stock analysis (for both uninformative and informative prior weighting by population size estimated the main contribution from the Southeast Asian rookeries of the Sulu Sea (mean ≥45.31%, Peninsular Malaysia (mean ≥17.42%, and Sarawak (mean ≥12.46%. Particularly, contribution from the Sulu Sea rookery was estimated to be the highest and lower confidence intervals were more than zero (≥24.36%. When estimating contributions by region rather than individual rookeries, results showed that Brunei Bay was sourced mainly from the Southeast Asian rookeries. The results suggest an ontogenetic shift in foraging grounds and provide conservation implications for Southeast Asian green turtles.

Bay breeze climatology at two sites along the Chesapeake bay from 1986-2010: Implications for surface ozone.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, Ryan M; Thompson, Anne M

Hourly surface meteorological measurements were coupled with surface ozone (O 3 ) mixing ratio measurements at Hampton, Virginia and Baltimore, Maryland, two sites along the Chesapeake Bay in the Mid-Atlantic United States, to examine the behavior of surface O 3 during bay breeze events and quantify the impact of the bay breeze on local O 3 pollution. Analyses were performed for the months of May through September for the years 1986 to 2010. The years were split into three groups to account for increasingly stringent environmental regulations that reduced regional emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ): 1986-1994, 1995-2002, and 2003-2010. Each day in the 25-year record was marked either as a bay breeze day, a non-bay breeze day, or a rainy/cloudy day based on the meteorological data. Mean eight hour (8-h) averaged surface O 3 values during bay breeze events were 3 to 5 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) higher at Hampton and Baltimore than on non-bay breeze days in all year periods. Anomalies from mean surface O 3 were highest in the afternoon at both sites during bay breeze days in the 2003-2010 study period. In conjunction with an overall lowering of baseline O 3 after the 1995-2002 period, the percentage of total exceedances of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 75 ppbv 8-h O 3 standard that occurred on bay breeze days increased at Hampton for 2003-2010, while remaining steady at Baltimore. These results suggest that bay breeze circulations are becoming more important to causing exceedance events at particular sites in the region, and support the hypothesis of Martins et al. (2012) that highly localized meteorology increasingly drives air quality events at Hampton.

Evaluating Hierarchical Structure in Music Annotations.

Science.gov (United States)

McFee, Brian; Nieto, Oriol; Farbood, Morwaread M; Bello, Juan Pablo

2017-01-01

Music exhibits structure at multiple scales, ranging from motifs to large-scale functional components. When inferring the structure of a piece, different listeners may attend to different temporal scales, which can result in disagreements when they describe the same piece. In the field of music informatics research (MIR), it is common to use corpora annotated with structural boundaries at different levels. By quantifying disagreements between multiple annotators, previous research has yielded several insights relevant to the study of music cognition. First, annotators tend to agree when structural boundaries are ambiguous. Second, this ambiguity seems to depend on musical features, time scale, and genre. Furthermore, it is possible to tune current annotation evaluation metrics to better align with these perceptual differences. However, previous work has not directly analyzed the effects of hierarchical structure because the existing methods for comparing structural annotations are designed for "flat" descriptions, and do not readily generalize to hierarchical annotations. In this paper, we extend and generalize previous work on the evaluation of hierarchical descriptions of musical structure. We derive an evaluation metric which can compare hierarchical annotations holistically across multiple levels. sing this metric, we investigate inter-annotator agreement on the multilevel annotations of two different music corpora, investigate the influence of acoustic properties on hierarchical annotations, and evaluate existing hierarchical segmentation algorithms against the distribution of inter-annotator agreement.

Evaluating Hierarchical Structure in Music Annotations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian McFee

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Music exhibits structure at multiple scales, ranging from motifs to large-scale functional components. When inferring the structure of a piece, different listeners may attend to different temporal scales, which can result in disagreements when they describe the same piece. In the field of music informatics research (MIR, it is common to use corpora annotated with structural boundaries at different levels. By quantifying disagreements between multiple annotators, previous research has yielded several insights relevant to the study of music cognition. First, annotators tend to agree when structural boundaries are ambiguous. Second, this ambiguity seems to depend on musical features, time scale, and genre. Furthermore, it is possible to tune current annotation evaluation metrics to better align with these perceptual differences. However, previous work has not directly analyzed the effects of hierarchical structure because the existing methods for comparing structural annotations are designed for “flat” descriptions, and do not readily generalize to hierarchical annotations. In this paper, we extend and generalize previous work on the evaluation of hierarchical descriptions of musical structure. We derive an evaluation metric which can compare hierarchical annotations holistically across multiple levels. sing this metric, we investigate inter-annotator agreement on the multilevel annotations of two different music corpora, investigate the influence of acoustic properties on hierarchical annotations, and evaluate existing hierarchical segmentation algorithms against the distribution of inter-annotator agreement.

[Estimation and experiment of carbon sequestration by oysters attached to the enhancement artificial reefs in Laizhou Bay, Shandong, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pi-Hai; Li, Jiao; Guan, Chang-Tao; Li, Meng-Jie; Liu, Chao

2014-10-01

Through sampling investigation of fouling organisms on the enhancement artificial reefs set up in Laizhou Bay, it was proved that oyster (Ostrea plicatula) was the dominant fouling species. Therefore the dry mass of shell (Ms), total fresh mass (Mt) and thickness (T) of oyster attached on the reefs were analyzed. The results showed that the Mt and Ms presented seasonal variation (P oysters attaching to the tube enhancement reefs constructed in 2009, 2010 and 2011 in Laizhou Bay were 17.61, 16.33 and 10.45 kg · m(-3), respectively. The oysters on the enhancement reefs of Jincheng marine ranch with an area of 64.25 hm2 had fixed carbon of 297.5 t C (equivalent to 1071 t of CO2) from 2009 to 2013 in Laizhou Bay. To capture and store the same amount of CO2 would cost about 1.6 x 10(5)-6.4 x 10(5) US dollars. Therefore, oysters attaching to the enhancement reefs bring about remarkable ecological benefits.

Monitoring of bird abundance and distribution at McKinley Bay and Hutchison Bay, Northwest Territories, 1981 to 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cornish, B J; Dickson, D L

1994-04-01

McKinley Bay has been identified as a preferred site for a harbor to support oil and gas production in the Beaufort Sea. As the bay is a molting area for several species of diving duck, a study was initiated to monitor the effect of harbor development on birds using the bay. Baseline information on the natural annual fluctuations in the number of birds were collected for nine years at McKinley Bay and eight years at neighboring Hutchinson Bay, an area chosen as the control. The final report of the predevelopment phase of the monitoring study is presented, including results of the 1993 surveys and a summary of results of all years of surveys. There were significantly more diving ducks in McKinley Bay in early August 1990 to 1993, on average, than from 1981 to 1985. No statistically significant change in total diving ducks was noted at Hutchinson Bay. Numbers of species of divers varied substantially between years at the two bays but not to the same degree. Significantly more Pacific loons, red-throated loons, and northern pintails were recorded in the 1990-1993 surveys at McKinley Bay than in earlier surveys. Potential explanations for the large between-year fluctuations in diving duck numbers are discussed. The variations may be due to bird responses to changes in the physical environment or related to the limitations of the aerial survey techniques used. Because of the large natural fluctuations in numbers of molting diving ducks using these bays in early August, it will be difficult to detect future impacts of industrial disturbance, even when sources of survey bias are minimized. It is concluded that aerial surveys of molting diving ducks in the two bays are unsuitable for monitoring the effects of industrial development. 41 refs., 7 figs., 23 tabs.

Variations in water clarity and bottom albedo in Florida Bay from 1985 to 1997

Science.gov (United States)

Stumpf, R.P.; Frayer, M.L.; Durako, M.J.; Brock, J.C.

1999-01-01

Following extensive seagrass die-offs of the late 1980s and early 1990s, Florida Bay reportedly had significant declines in water clarity due to turbidity and algal blooms. Scant information exists on the extent of the decline, as this bay was not investigated for water quality concerns before the die-offs and limited areas were sampled after the primary die-off. We use imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to examine water clarity in Florida Bay for the period 1985 to 1997. The AVHRR provides data on nominal water reflectance and estimated fight attenuation, which are used here to describe turbidity conditions in the bay on a seasonal basis. In situ observations on changes in seagrass abundance within the bay, combined with the satellite data, provide additional insights into losses of seagrass. The imagery shows an extensive region to the west of Florida Bay having increased reflectance and fight attenuation in both winter and summer beginning in winter of 1988. These increases are consistent with a change from dense seagrass to sparse or negligible cover. Approximately 200 km2 of these offshore seagrasses may have been lost during the primary die-off (1988 through 1991), significantly more than in the bay. The imagery shows the distribution and timing of increased turbidity that followed the die-offs in the northwestern regions of the bay, exemplified in Rankin Lake and Johnson Key Basin, and indicates that about 200 km2 of dense seagrass may have been lost or severely degraded within the bay from the start of the die-off. The decline in water clarity has continued in the northwestern bay since 1991. The area west of the Everglades National Park boundaries has shown decreases in both winter turbidity and summer reflectances, suggestive of partial seagrass recovery. Areas of low reflectance associated with a major Syringodium filiforme seagrass meadow north of Marathon (Vaca Key, in the Florida Keys) appear to have expanded westward

Default Bayes factors for ANOVA designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Morey, Richard D.; Speckman, Paul L.; Province, Jordan M.

2012-01-01

Bayes factors have been advocated as superior to p-values for assessing statistical evidence in data. Despite the advantages of Bayes factors and the drawbacks of p-values, inference by p-values is still nearly ubiquitous. One impediment to the adoption of Bayes factors is a lack of practical

A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert M Dorazio

Full Text Available Several spatial capture-recapture (SCR models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.We developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.Our approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species distribution model, even in

77 FR 21890 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Sturgeon Bay, WI

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-12

... Street and Maple-Oregon Bridges so vehicular traffic congestion would not develop on downtown Sturgeon... the efficient movement of vehicular traffic in Sturgeon Bay. The Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal is... experiences a significant increase in vehicular and vessel traffic during the peak tourist and navigation...

Using transplanted bivalves to assess oil exposure and effects in Delaware Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salazar, M.; Salazar, S.; Mearns, A.; Venosa, A.; Eberhart, B.

1995-01-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of bioremediation, the US EPA oiled intertidal plots in Delaware Bay and monitored oil degradation rates. This controlled release of oil was also used to test the utility of transplanted bivalves in assessing oil spills and to evaluate the extent and potential effects of the release. Measuring the accumulation of oil in bivalve tissues was used to estimate exposure and the extent of contamination. Growth was used to estimate potential bioeffects. Approximately 1,800 mussels and 1,200 oysters were transplanted to 11 intertidal sites. Five treatment sites were within 1 meter of the lower end of the oiled plots. A total of six sites were used as controls, three on either side of the oiled plots at 5, 10, and 100 m. Samples were taken on Day 0, 2, 15, and 28 to estimate the rate of bioaccumulation. All of the mussels died within the first week of exposure; oysters exhibited over 95% survival but growth was minimal. The authors found a statistically significant difference in tissue weights when comparing treatment sites with control sites. The total concentration of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in tissues of oysters nearest the oiled plots increased by a factor of four after an exposure period of two days. PAH concentrations in control oysters nearest the mouth of the bay increased slightly but the differences were not statistically significant. The control oysters nearest the head of the bay received an intermediate dose which was depurated by the end of the 28-day experiment. PAHs in the oysters nearest the oiled plots approached but did not return to background levels by the end of the test

Bay Ridge Gardens - Mixed Humid Affordable Multifamily Housing Deep Energy Retrofit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lyons, James [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Moore, Mike [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Thompson, Margo [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States)

2013-08-01

Under this project, Newport Partners (as part of the BA-PIRC research team) evaluated the installation, measured performance, and cost effectiveness of efficiency upgrade measures for a tenant-in-place deep energy retrofit (DER) at the Bay Ridge multifamily development in Annapolis, Maryland. This report summarizes system commissioning, short-term test results, utility bill data analysis, and analysis of real-time data collected over a one-year period after the retrofit was complete. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a "base scope" retrofit which was estimated to achieve a 30%+ savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on 186 apartments, and a "DER scope" which was estimated to achieve 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on a 12-unit building. A wide range of efficiency measures was applied to pursue this savings target for the DER building, including improvements/replacements of mechanical equipment and distribution systems, appliances, lighting and lighting controls, the building envelope, hot water conservation measures, and resident education. The results of this research build upon the current body of knowledge of multifamily retrofits. Towards this end, the research team has collected and generated data on the selection of measures, their estimated performance, their measured performance, and risk factors and their impact on potential measures.

Validity of the t-plot method to assess microporosity in hierarchical micro/mesoporous materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Galarneau, Anne; Villemot, François; Rodriguez, Jeremy; Fajula, François; Coasne, Benoit

2014-11-11

The t-plot method is a well-known technique which allows determining the micro- and/or mesoporous volumes and the specific surface area of a sample by comparison with a reference adsorption isotherm of a nonporous material having the same surface chemistry. In this paper, the validity of the t-plot method is discussed in the case of hierarchical porous materials exhibiting both micro- and mesoporosities. Different hierarchical zeolites with MCM-41 type ordered mesoporosity are prepared using pseudomorphic transformation. For comparison, we also consider simple mechanical mixtures of microporous and mesoporous materials. We first show an intrinsic failure of the t-plot method; this method does not describe the fact that, for a given surface chemistry and pressure, the thickness of the film adsorbed in micropores or small mesopores (plot method to estimate the micro- and mesoporous volumes of hierarchical samples is then discussed, and an abacus is given to correct the underestimated microporous volume by the t-plot method.

Study on origin and sedimentary environment of marine sediments from Kii Channel, Hiroshima Bay and Tosa Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Misaki

2008-01-01

The trace amounts of elements in the sediments of sea bottom in Kii Channel, Hiroshima Bay and Tosa Bay were determined quantitatively by the neutron activation analysis. The following facts were illustrated particularly from the quantitative analysis of scandium, rare earths, thorium and uranium: 1) It was known from Ce/La ratio that the geological feature in the west part of Japan is reflected in Kii Channel, Hiroshima Bay and Tosa Bay; 2) The rare-earth element pattern and La/Lu ratio suggest the fact that Kii Channel, Hiroshima Bay and Tosa Bay are essentially composed of the materials of which origin is land; 3) From the fact that Ce/La ratio in these sites are slightly under 1.0, these sites are considered to be affected mainly by the materials of which origin is land; 4) The sedimentary environment in the marine bottom of the Japanese coasts has been found to be mostly under a reductive state. (M.H.)

Mercury dynamics in a coastal aquifer: Maunalua Bay, Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguli, Priya M.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Dulaiova, Henrieta; Glenn, Craig R.; Flegal, A. Russell

2014-01-01

We evaluated the influence of groundwater–seawater interaction on mercury dynamics in Maunalua Bay, a coral reef ecosystem located on the south shore of Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi, by combining geochemical data with submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) rates. During a rising tide, unfiltered total mercury (U-HgT) concentrations in seawater increased from ∼6 to 20 pM at Black Point (west Bay) and from ∼2.5 to 8 pM at Niu (central Bay). We attribute this change to an increase in suspended particulate matter at high tide. Approximately 90% of mercury in groundwater at Niu was in the filtered (weighted average Maunalua Bay groundwater mercury flux of 0.68 ± 0.67 mol yr−1 by combining the proportional flux of F-HgT from three distinct SGD zones, and place these results into a broader context by comparing and contrasting flux estimates from locations around the world. Results from existing SGD studies should be evaluated to develop future sampling strategies that address more targeted questions about mercury biogeochemical cycling at the groundwater–seawater interface.

Hierarchically Nanostructured Materials for Sustainable Environmental Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zheng eRen

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This article presents a comprehensive overview of the hierarchical nanostructured materials with either geometry or composition complexity in environmental applications. The hierarchical nanostructures offer advantages of high surface area, synergistic interactions and multiple functionalities towards water remediation, environmental gas sensing and monitoring as well as catalytic gas treatment. Recent advances in synthetic strategies for various hierarchical morphologies such as hollow spheres and urchin-shaped architectures have been reviewed. In addition to the chemical synthesis, the physical mechanisms associated with the materials design and device fabrication have been discussed for each specific application. The development and application of hierarchical complex perovskite oxide nanostructures have also been introduced in photocatalytic water remediation, gas sensing and catalytic converter. Hierarchical nanostructures will open up many possibilities for materials design and device fabrication in environmental chemistry and technology.

Contaminant exposure of birds nesting in Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Custer, Thomas W; Dummer, Paul M; Custer, Christine M; Franson, J Christian; Jones, Michael

2014-08-01

In earlier studies, elevated concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) were reported in double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) eggs and tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) eggs and nestlings collected from lower Green Bay (WI, USA) in 1994 and 1995 and black-crowned night-heron (Nycticorax nycticorax) eggs collected in 1991. Comparable samples collected in 2010 and 2011 indicated that concentrations of PCBs were 35%, 62%, 70%, and 88% lower than in the early 1990s in tree swallow eggs, tree swallow nestlings, double-crested cormorant eggs, and black-crowned night-heron eggs, respectively; concentrations of DDE were 47%, 43%, 51%, and 80% lower, respectively. These declines are consistent with regional contaminant trends in other species. Concentrations of PCBs were higher in herring gull (Larus argentatus) than in black-crowned night-heron eggs collected from Green Bay in 2010; PCB concentrations in double-crested cormorant and tree swallow eggs were intermediate. The estimated toxicity of the PCB mixture in eggs of the insectivorous tree swallow was the equal to or greater than toxicity in the 3 piscivorous bird species. A multivariate analysis indicated that the composition percentage of lower-numbered PCB congeners was greater in eggs of the insectivorous tree swallow than in eggs of the 3 piscivorous species nesting in Green Bay. Dioxin and furan concentrations and the toxicity of these chemicals were also higher in tree swallows than these other waterbird species nesting in Green Bay. Published 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

76 FR 28309 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Sturgeon Bay, WI

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-17

... vehicular traffic congestion would not develop on downtown Sturgeon Bay streets due to unscheduled bridge... schedules during the peak tourist and navigation seasons to provide for the efficient movement of vehicular... between Lake Michigan and Green Bay. The area experiences a significant increase in vehicular and vessel...

Hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped carbon membranes

KAUST Repository

Wang, Hong; Wu, Tao

2017-01-01

The present invention is a structure, method of making and method of use for a novel macroscopic hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped, nano-porous carbon membrane (HNDCMs) with asymmetric and hierarchical pore architecture that can be produced

Hierarchically organized layout for visualization of biochemical pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsay, Jyh-Jong; Wu, Bo-Liang; Jeng, Yu-Sen

2010-01-01

Many complex pathways are described as hierarchical structures in which a pathway is recursively partitioned into several sub-pathways, and organized hierarchically as a tree. The hierarchical structure provides a natural way to visualize the global structure of a complex pathway. However, none of the previous research on pathway visualization explores the hierarchical structures provided by many complex pathways. In this paper, we aim to develop algorithms that can take advantages of hierarchical structures, and give layouts that explore the global structures as well as local structures of pathways. We present a new hierarchically organized layout algorithm to produce layouts for hierarchically organized pathways. Our algorithm first decomposes a complex pathway into sub-pathway groups along the hierarchical organization, and then partition each sub-pathway group into basic components. It then applies conventional layout algorithms, such as hierarchical layout and force-directed layout, to compute the layout of each basic component. Finally, component layouts are joined to form a final layout of the pathway. Our main contribution is the development of algorithms for decomposing pathways and joining layouts. Experiment shows that our algorithm is able to give comprehensible visualization for pathways with hierarchies, cycles as well as complex structures. It clearly renders the global component structures as well as the local structure in each component. In addition, it runs very fast, and gives better visualization for many examples from previous related research. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

76 FR 22809 - Safety Zone; Bay Ferry II Maritime Security Exercise; San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-25

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 [Docket No. USCG-2011-0196] RIN 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Bay Ferry II Maritime Security Exercise; San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA AGENCY... Security Exercise; San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA. (a) Location. The limits of this safety zone...

Self-assembled biomimetic superhydrophobic hierarchical arrays.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hongta; Dou, Xuan; Fang, Yin; Jiang, Peng

2013-09-01

Here, we report a simple and inexpensive bottom-up technology for fabricating superhydrophobic coatings with hierarchical micro-/nano-structures, which are inspired by the binary periodic structure found on the superhydrophobic compound eyes of some insects (e.g., mosquitoes and moths). Binary colloidal arrays consisting of exemplary large (4 and 30 μm) and small (300 nm) silica spheres are first assembled by a scalable Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) technology in a layer-by-layer manner. After surface modification with fluorosilanes, the self-assembled hierarchical particle arrays become superhydrophobic with an apparent water contact angle (CA) larger than 150°. The throughput of the resulting superhydrophobic coatings with hierarchical structures can be significantly improved by templating the binary periodic structures of the LB-assembled colloidal arrays into UV-curable fluoropolymers by a soft lithography approach. Superhydrophobic perfluoroether acrylate hierarchical arrays with large CAs and small CA hysteresis can be faithfully replicated onto various substrates. Both experiments and theoretical calculations based on the Cassie's dewetting model demonstrate the importance of the hierarchical structure in achieving the final superhydrophobic surface states. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Responses of upland herpetofauna to the restoration of Carolina Bays and thinning of forested Bay Margins.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ledvina, Joseph A.

2008-05-01

Research on the effects of wetland restoration on reptiles and amphibians is becoming more common, but almost all of these studies have observed the colonization of recently disturbed habitats that were completely dry at the time of restoration. In a similar manner, investigations herpetofaunal responses to forest management have focused on clearcuts, and less intensive stand manipulations are not as well studied. To evaluate community and population responses of reptiles and amphibians to hydrology restoration and canopy removal in the interior of previously degraded Carolina bays, I monitored herpetofauna in the uplands adjacent to six historically degraded Carolina bays at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina for four years after restoration. To evaluate the effects of forest thinning on upland herpetofauna, forests were thinned in the margins of three of these bays. I used repeated measures ANOVA to compare species richness and diversity and the abundance of selected species and guilds between these bays and with those at three reference bays that were not historically drained and three control bays that remained degraded. I also used Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) to look for community-level patterns based treatments.

The Carolina Bay Restoration Project - Status Report II 2000-2004.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barton, Christopher

2006-07-13

A Wetlands Mitigation Bank was established at SRS in 1997 as a compensatory alternative for unavoidable wetland losses. Prior to restoration activities, 16 sites included in the project were surveyed for the SRS Site Use system to serve as a protective covenant. Pre-restoration monitoring ended in Fall 2000, and post restoration monitoring began in the Winter/Spring of 2001. The total interior harvest in the 16 bays after harvesting the trees was 19.6 ha. The margins in the opencanopy, pine savanna margin treatments were thinned. Margins containing areas with immature forested stands (bay 5184 and portions of bay 5011) were thinned using a mechanical shredder in November 2001. Over 126 hectares were included in the study areas (interior + margin). Planting of two tree species and the transplanting of wetland grass species was successful. From field surveys, it was estimated that approximately 2700 Nyssa sylvatica and 1900 Taxodium distichum seedlings were planted in the eight forested bays resulting in an average planting density of ≈ 490 stems ha-1. One hundred seedlings of each species per bay (where available) were marked to evaluate survivability and growth. Wetland grass species were transplanted from donor sites on SRS to plots that ranged in size from 100 – 300 m2, depending on wetland size. On 0.75 and 0.6 meter centers, respectively, 2198 plugs of Panicum hemitomon and 3021 plugs Leersia hexandra were transplanted. New shoots originating from the stumps were treated with a foliar herbicide (Garlon® 4) during the summer of 2001 using backpack sprayers. Preliminary information from 2000-2004 regarding the hydrologic, vegetation and faunal response to restoration is presented in this status report. Post restoration monitoring will continue through 2005. A final report to the Mitigation Bank Review Team will be submitted in mid-2006.

Hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped carbon membranes

KAUST Repository

Wang, Hong

2017-08-03

The present invention is a structure, method of making and method of use for a novel macroscopic hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped, nano-porous carbon membrane (HNDCMs) with asymmetric and hierarchical pore architecture that can be produced on a large-scale approach. The unique HNDCM holds great promise as components in separation and advanced carbon devices because they could offer unconventional fluidic transport phenomena on the nanoscale. Overall, the invention set forth herein covers a hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped carbon membranes and methods of making and using such a membranes.

Hierarchical nanostructures assembled from ultrathin Bi2WO6 nanoflakes and their visible-light induced photocatalytic property

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xiong; Tian, Peng; Lin, Ying; Li, Li

2015-01-01

Graphical abstract: Hierarchical Bi 2 WO 6 nanostructures assembled from nanoflakes were successfully synthesized by a facile hydrothermal method. The excellent photocatalytic activity and recycling performance might be mainly ascribed to the unique hierarchical nanostructures and are expected to offer the nanostructures promising applications in the field of wastewater treatment. - Highlights: • Hierarchical Bi 2 WO 6 nanostructures assembled from nanoflakes were successfully synthesized by a facile hydrothermal method. • Visible-light-induced photocatalytic efficiency of the obtained nanoarchitectures was enhanced about 6 times. • A possible mechanism was proposed. - Abstract: With the aid of ethylene glycol and sodium dodecylbenzene sulfonate, the hierarchical Bi 2 WO 6 nanoarchitectures assembled from nanoflakes could be attained by a facile solvothermal method. The synthetic strategy is versatile and environmentally friendly and a plausible growth-assembly process was proposed for the formation of the hierarchical nanostructures. The visible-light-irradiated photocatalytic activity was estimated by the degradation of rhodamine B. Compared with the sample prepared by a solid-state reaction, the visible-light-induced photocatalytic efficiency of the nanostructures was enhanced about 6 times. The photocatalysis tests show that the nanostructures exhibit excellent photocatalytic activity and recycling performance, which were mainly ascribed to the unique hierarchical nanostructures and are expected to offer promising applications in the field of wastewater treatment

Estimating the phenology of elk brucellosis transmission with hierarchical models of cause-specific and baseline hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Paul C.; Maichak, Eric J.; Rogerson, Jared D.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Jones, Jennifer D; Heisey, Dennis M.; Edwards, William H.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

2015-01-01

Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the

Understanding and analyzing the hydro-sedimentary processes in the Bay of Toulon. Contribution for modelling the dispersion of radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, Christiane

2014-01-01

This doctoral research aims to enhance knowledge of the hydro-sedimentary processes in the Bay of Toulon and to represent these processes through a post accidental managing tool, developed to simulate the dispersion of radionuclides. This work is based on a multidisciplinary strategy, using numerical modelling and in situ measurements to study the complex problem of contaminants in the marine environment. Hydrodynamic of the Bay and water mass exchanges through the channel have been studied. Results are highly linked to the atmospheric conditions and the water exchange times of the Little Bay range from two to six days, depending on wind conditions. Recorded data in the Las and Eygoutier Rivers led to the description and the estimation of the catchment yields to the Bay, poorly studied before. With one ton of particulate matter annually discharged by the Las River, the Little Bay seems to be a sedimentation area. In case of accidental release of radionuclides, this area appears to be a trapping zone. (author)

Florida Bay: A history of recent ecological changes

Science.gov (United States)

Fourqurean, J.W.; Robblee, M.B.

1999-01-01

Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Recent ecological changes (seagrass die-off, algal blooms, increased turbidity) to the Florida Bay ecosystem have focused the attention of the public, commercial interests, scientists, and resource managers on the factors influencing the structure and function of Florida Bay. Restoring Florida Bay to some historic condition is the goal of resource managers, but what is not clear is what an anthropogenically-unaltered Florida Bay would look like. While there is general consensus that human activities have contributed to the changes occurring in the Florida Bay ecosystem, a high degree of natural system variability has made elucidation of the links between human activity and Florida Bay dynamics difficult. Paleoecological analyses, examination of long-term datasets, and directed measurements of aspects of the ecology of Florida Bay all contribute to our understanding of the behavior of the bay, and allow quantification of the magnitude of the recent ecological changes with respect to historical variability of the system.

Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Hashing for Image Retrieval With Hierarchical Convolutional Features.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Xiaoqiang; Chen, Yaxiong; Li, Xuelong

Hashing has been an important and effective technology in image retrieval due to its computational efficiency and fast search speed. The traditional hashing methods usually learn hash functions to obtain binary codes by exploiting hand-crafted features, which cannot optimally represent the information of the sample. Recently, deep learning methods can achieve better performance, since deep learning architectures can learn more effective image representation features. However, these methods only use semantic features to generate hash codes by shallow projection but ignore texture details. In this paper, we proposed a novel hashing method, namely hierarchical recurrent neural hashing (HRNH), to exploit hierarchical recurrent neural network to generate effective hash codes. There are three contributions of this paper. First, a deep hashing method is proposed to extensively exploit both spatial details and semantic information, in which, we leverage hierarchical convolutional features to construct image pyramid representation. Second, our proposed deep network can exploit directly convolutional feature maps as input to preserve the spatial structure of convolutional feature maps. Finally, we propose a new loss function that considers the quantization error of binarizing the continuous embeddings into the discrete binary codes, and simultaneously maintains the semantic similarity and balanceable property of hash codes. Experimental results on four widely used data sets demonstrate that the proposed HRNH can achieve superior performance over other state-of-the-art hashing methods.Hashing has been an important and effective technology in image retrieval due to its computational efficiency and fast search speed. The traditional hashing methods usually learn hash functions to obtain binary codes by exploiting hand-crafted features, which cannot optimally represent the information of the sample. Recently, deep learning methods can achieve better performance, since deep

Bird surveys at McKinley Bay and Hutchinson Bay, Northwest Territories, in 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cornish, B J; Dickson, D L; Dickson, H L

1991-03-01

Monitoring surveys of bird abundance and distribution were conducted in 1990 at McKinley Bay in the Northwest Territories, the site of a winter harbour for drillships and the proposed location for a major year-round support base for oil and gas exploration. Primary objectives of the survey were to determine whether diving duck numbers had changed since the initial phase of the study from 1981-1985, and to provide additional baseline data on natural annual fluctuations in diving duck numbers. Three aerial surveys at each bay were carried out using techniques identical to those in previous years. On 5 August 1990, when survey conditions were considered best of the three surveys, more than twice as many diving ducks were found in McKinley Bay and Hutchinson Bay than on average during the five years of 1981-1985. Old squaw and scooters comprised ca 90% of the diving ducks observed, and both species showed significant increases in numbers. The increase in abundance of diving ducks was likely unrelated to industrial activity in the area since a similar increase occurred in the control area, Hutchinson Bay. Many factors, including both environmental factors such as those affecting nesting success and timing of the moult, and factors related to the survey methods, could be involved in causing the large fluctuations observed. 9 refs., 8 figs., 10 tabs.

Bird surveys at McKinley Bay and Hutchinson Bay, Northwest Territories, in 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cornish, B.J.; Dickson, D.L.; Dickson, H.L.

1991-01-01

Monitoring surveys of bird abundance and distribution were conducted in 1990 at McKinley Bay in the Northwest Territories, the site of a winter harbour for drillships and the proposed location for a major year-round support base for oil and gas exploration. Primary objectives of the survey were to determine whether diving duck numbers had changed since the initial phase of the study from 1981-1985, and to provide additional baseline data on natural annual fluctuations in diving duck numbers. Three aerial surveys at each bay were carried out using techniques identical to those in previous years. On 5 August 1990, when survey conditions were considered best of the three surveys, more than twice as many diving ducks were found in McKinley Bay and Hutchinson Bay than on average during the five years of 1981-1985. Old squaw and scooters comprised ca 90% of the diving ducks observed, and both species showed significant increases in numbers. The increase in abundance of diving ducks was likely unrelated to industrial activity in the area since a similar increase occurred in the control area, Hutchinson Bay. Many factors, including both environmental factors such as those affecting nesting success and timing of the moult, and factors related to the survey methods, could be involved in causing the large fluctuations observed. 9 refs., 8 figs., 10 tabs

The Bayes linear approach to inference and decision-making for a reliability programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldstein, Michael; Bedford, Tim

2007-01-01

In reliability modelling it is conventional to build sophisticated models of the probabilistic behaviour of the component lifetimes in a system in order to deduce information about the probabilistic behaviour of the system lifetime. Decision modelling of the reliability programme requires a priori, therefore, an even more sophisticated set of models in order to capture the evidence the decision maker believes may be obtained from different types of data acquisition. Bayes linear analysis is a methodology that uses expectation rather than probability as the fundamental expression of uncertainty. By working only with expected values, a simpler level of modelling is needed as compared to full probability models. In this paper we shall consider the Bayes linear approach to the estimation of a mean time to failure MTTF of a component. The model built will take account of the variance in our estimate of the MTTF, based on a variety of sources of information

78 FR 27126 - East Bay, St. Andrews Bay and the Gulf of Mexico at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida; Restricted...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-09

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers 33 CFR Part 334 East Bay, St. Andrews Bay and the Gulf of Mexico at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida; Restricted Areas AGENCY: U.S. Army... read as follows: Sec. 334.665 East Bay, St. Andrews Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, Restricted Areas...

Zeolitic materials with hierarchical porous structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez-Orozco, Sofia; Inayat, Amer; Schwab, Andreas; Selvam, Thangaraj; Schwieger, Wilhelm

2011-06-17

During the past several years, different kinds of hierarchical structured zeolitic materials have been synthesized due to their highly attractive properties, such as superior mass/heat transfer characteristics, lower restriction of the diffusion of reactants in the mesopores, and low pressure drop. Our contribution provides general information regarding types and preparation methods of hierarchical zeolitic materials and their relative advantages and disadvantages. Thereafter, recent advances in the preparation and characterization of hierarchical zeolitic structures within the crystallites by post-synthetic treatment methods, such as dealumination or desilication; and structured devices by in situ and ex situ zeolite coatings on open-cellular ceramic foams as (non-reactive as well as reactive) supports are highlighted. Specific advantages of using hierarchical zeolitic catalysts/structures in selected catalytic reactions, such as benzene to phenol (BTOP) and methanol to olefins (MTO) are presented. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Processing of hierarchical syntactic structure in music.

Science.gov (United States)

Koelsch, Stefan; Rohrmeier, Martin; Torrecuso, Renzo; Jentschke, Sebastian

2013-09-17

Hierarchical structure with nested nonlocal dependencies is a key feature of human language and can be identified theoretically in most pieces of tonal music. However, previous studies have argued against the perception of such structures in music. Here, we show processing of nonlocal dependencies in music. We presented chorales by J. S. Bach and modified versions in which the hierarchical structure was rendered irregular whereas the local structure was kept intact. Brain electric responses differed between regular and irregular hierarchical structures, in both musicians and nonmusicians. This finding indicates that, when listening to music, humans apply cognitive processes that are capable of dealing with long-distance dependencies resulting from hierarchically organized syntactic structures. Our results reveal that a brain mechanism fundamental for syntactic processing is engaged during the perception of music, indicating that processing of hierarchical structure with nested nonlocal dependencies is not just a key component of human language, but a multidomain capacity of human cognition.

Spill management strategy for the Chesapeake Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Butler, H.L.; Chapman, R.S.; Johnson, B.H.

1990-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay Program is a unique cooperative effort between state and Federal agencies to restore the health and productivity of America's largest estuary. To assist in addressing specific management issues, a comprehensive three-dimensional, time-varying hydrodynamic and water quality model has ben developed. The Bay modeling strategy will serve as an excellent framework for including submodules to predict the movement, dispersion, and weathering of accidental spills, such as for petroleum products or other chemicals. This paper presents sample results from the Bay application to illustrate the success of the model system in simulating Bay processes. Also, a review of model requirements for successful spill modeling in Chesapeake Bay is presented. Recommendations are given for implementing appropriate spill modules with the Bay model framework and establishing a strategy for model use in addressing management issues

Hierarchical Nanoceramics for Industrial Process Sensors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruud, James, A.; Brosnan, Kristen, H.; Striker, Todd; Ramaswamy, Vidya; Aceto, Steven, C.; Gao, Yan; Willson, Patrick, D.; Manoharan, Mohan; Armstrong, Eric, N., Wachsman, Eric, D.; Kao, Chi-Chang

2011-07-15

This project developed a robust, tunable, hierarchical nanoceramics materials platform for industrial process sensors in harsh-environments. Control of material structure at multiple length scales from nano to macro increased the sensing response of the materials to combustion gases. These materials operated at relatively high temperatures, enabling detection close to the source of combustion. It is anticipated that these materials can form the basis for a new class of sensors enabling widespread use of efficient combustion processes with closed loop feedback control in the energy-intensive industries. The first phase of the project focused on materials selection and process development, leading to hierarchical nanoceramics that were evaluated for sensing performance. The second phase focused on optimizing the materials processes and microstructures, followed by validation of performance of a prototype sensor in a laboratory combustion environment. The objectives of this project were achieved by: (1) synthesizing and optimizing hierarchical nanostructures; (2) synthesizing and optimizing sensing nanomaterials; (3) integrating sensing functionality into hierarchical nanostructures; (4) demonstrating material performance in a sensing element; and (5) validating material performance in a simulated service environment. The project developed hierarchical nanoceramic electrodes for mixed potential zirconia gas sensors with increased surface area and demonstrated tailored electrocatalytic activity operable at high temperatures enabling detection of products of combustion such as NOx close to the source of combustion. Methods were developed for synthesis of hierarchical nanostructures with high, stable surface area, integrated catalytic functionality within the structures for gas sensing, and demonstrated materials performance in harsh lab and combustion gas environments.

Atmospheric deposition of organochlorine contaminants to Galveston Bay, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Park, June-Soo; Wade, Terry L.; Sweet, Stephen

Atmospheric monitoring of PCBs and chlorinated pesticides (e.g., HCHs, chlordanes, and DDTs) in Galveston Bay was conducted at Seabrook, Texas. Air and wet deposition samples were collected from 2 February 1995 and continued through 6 August 1996. Vapor total PCB ( tPCB) concentrations in air ranged from 0.21 to 4.78 ng m -3 with a dominance of tri-chlorinated PCBs. Dissolved tPCBs in rain ranged from 0.08 to 3.34 ng l -1, with tetra-chlorinated PCBs predominating. The predominant isomers found in air and rain were α- and γ-HCH, α- and γ-chlordanes, 4,4'-DDT, and dieldrin. The concentrations of PCBs and pesticides in the air and rain revealed no clear seasonal trend. Elevated levels of PCBs in the air occurred when temperatures were high and wind came from urban and industrialized areas (S, SW, NW, and W of the site). Concentrations of HCHs were elevated in April, May, and October, perhaps due to local and/or regional applications of γ-HCH (lindane). Other pesticides showed no notable temporal variation. When winds originated from the Gulf of Mexico (southeasterly), lower concentrations of organochlorines were detected in the air. The direct deposition rate (wet+dry) of PCBs to Galveston Bay (6.40 μg m -2 yr -1) was significantly higher than that of pesticides by a factor of 5-10. The net flux from gas exchange estimated for PCBs was from Galveston Bay water to the atmosphere (78 μg m -2 yr -1). Gas exchange of PCBs from bay water to the atmosphere was the dominant flux.

The impact of water loading on postglacial decay times in Hudson Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Holly Kyeore; Gomez, Natalya

2018-05-01

Ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to surface loading (ice and water) variations during the last glacial cycle has been contributing to sea-level changes globally throughout the Holocene, especially in regions like Canada that were heavily glaciated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The spatial and temporal distribution of GIA, as manifested in relative sea-level (RSL) change, are sensitive to the ice history and the rheological structure of the solid Earth, both of which are uncertain. It has been shown that RSL curves near the center of previously glaciated regions with no ongoing surface loading follow an exponential-like form, with the postglacial decay times associated with that form having a weak sensitivity to the details of the ice loading history. Postglacial decay time estimates thus provide a powerful datum for constraining the Earth's viscous structure and improving GIA predictions. We explore spatial patterns of postglacial decay time predictions in Hudson Bay by decomposing numerically modeled RSL changes into contributions from water and ice loading effects, and computing their relative impact on the decay times. We demonstrate that ice loading can contribute a strong geographic trend on the decay time estimates if the time window used to compute decay times includes periods that are temporally close to (i.e. contemporaneous with, or soon after) periods of active loading. This variability can be avoided by choosing a suitable starting point for the decay time window. However, more surprisingly, we show that across any adopted time window, water loading effects associated with inundation into, and postglacial flux out of, Hudson Bay and James Bay will impart significant geographic variability onto decay time estimates. We emphasize this issue by considering both maps of predicted decay times across the region and site-specific estimates, and we conclude that variability in observed decay times (whether based on existing or future data

The Case for a Hierarchical Cosmology

Science.gov (United States)

Vaucouleurs, G. de

1970-01-01

The development of modern theoretical cosmology is presented and some questionable assumptions of orthodox cosmology are pointed out. Suggests that recent observations indicate that hierarchical clustering is a basic factor in cosmology. The implications of hierarchical models of the universe are considered. Bibliography. (LC)

2011 Tohoku Tsunami Runup Distribution and Damages around Yamada Bay, Iwate

Science.gov (United States)

Okayasu, A.; Shimozono, T.; Sato, S.; Tajima, Y.; Liu, H.; Takagawa, T.; Fritz, H. M.

2011-12-01

On 11 March 2011, a magnitude Mw = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the coast of Japan's Tohoku region causing catastrophic damage and loss of life. A month later, distribution of inundation and run-up height for the tsunami was measured in and outside Yamada Bay locating at the middle of Iwate Prefecture. Yamada Bay has a narrow bay-mouth the width of which is approximately 1/4 of the bay width. The bay is surrounded by two peninsulas, Omoe and Funakoshi Peninsulas and locates in the rear of Funakoshi Peninsula for the epicenter. At eastern side of Omoe Peninsula which is exposed to the Pacific Ocean, the average tsunami height was 15 to 20m at the coast line. All villages there had very large run-up heights of more than 25m and houses at lower elevation were almost completely washed away. The highest run-up, around 40m with an inundation distance of 500 m, was measured at Aneyoshi Village. The village locates at the bottom of a small V-shape inlet which concentrates the energy of tsunamis and amplifies their height. Fortunately, the village itself had been moved to higher ground after severe damages brought by Meiji Sanriku (1896) and Showa Sanriku (1933) Tsunamis and had no loss of life by the 2011 Tsunami. At Funakoshi Peninsula, the south east side of which is facing to the epicenter, the average height of incoming tsunami was estimated to be about 15m. On the contrary, tsunami height inside Yamada Bay was much smaller, generally around 6 to 9m. The only exception was the base of Funakoshi Peninsula where tsunami coming from the other side came over the base of Peninsula and caused devastating damage to the area. The exposed areas south of Funakoshi Peninsula like Kirikiri had tsunami run-up of more than 15m. It is considered that the narrow bay-mouth reduced the tsunami height and Funakoshi Peninsula worked as a barrier for Yamada Bay. Yamada Town locating inside Yamada Bay however suffered a large loss of life. The ratio of dead or missing to its population is

Improved Adhesion and Compliancy of Hierarchical Fibrillar Adhesives.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yasong; Gates, Byron D; Menon, Carlo

2015-08-05

The gecko relies on van der Waals forces to cling onto surfaces with a variety of topography and composition. The hierarchical fibrillar structures on their climbing feet, ranging from mesoscale to nanoscale, are hypothesized to be key elements for the animal to conquer both smooth and rough surfaces. An epoxy-based artificial hierarchical fibrillar adhesive was prepared to study the influence of the hierarchical structures on the properties of a dry adhesive. The presented experiments highlight the advantages of a hierarchical structure despite a reduction of overall density and aspect ratio of nanofibrils. In contrast to an adhesive containing only nanometer-size fibrils, the hierarchical fibrillar adhesives exhibited a higher adhesion force and better compliancy when tested on an identical substrate.

Chesapeake Bay plume dynamics from LANDSAT

Science.gov (United States)

Munday, J. C., Jr.; Fedosh, M. S.

1981-01-01

LANDSAT images with enhancement and density slicing show that the Chesapeake Bay plume usually frequents the Virginia coast south of the Bay mouth. Southwestern (compared to northern) winds spread the plume easterly over a large area. Ebb tide images (compared to flood tide images) show a more dispersed plume. Flooding waters produce high turbidity levels over the shallow northern portion of the Bay mouth.

Applied Bayesian hierarchical methods

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Congdon, P

2010-01-01

... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Posterior Inference from Bayes Formula . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling in Relation to Monte Carlo Methods: Obtaining Posterior...

Parameterization of aquatic ecosystem functioning and its natural variation: Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plankton food web dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede

2017-10-01

Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.

Chemical absorption of acoustic energy due to an eddy in the western Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

PrasannaKumar, S.; Navelkar, G.S.; Murty, T.V.R.; Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, C.S.

Acoustic energy losses due to chemical absorption, within the western Bay of Bengal, in the presence of a subsurface meso-scale cold core eddy has been analysed. These estimates, for two different frequencies - 400 Hz and 10 kHz, find applications...

Trace metal concentrations in zooplankton from the eastern Arabian Sea and western Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Rejomon, G.; Balachandran, K.K.; Nair, M.; Joseph, T.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Achuthankutty, C.T.; Nair, K.K.C.; Pillai, N.G.K.

Trace metal contents in zooplankton samples were estimated as a part of the Marine Research-Living Resource program at 24 stations in the Bay of Bengal (November, 2002) and 29 stations in the Arabian Sea (September-October, 2003) during the Cruises...

An empirical Bayes method for updating inferences in analysis of quantitative trait loci using information from related genome scans.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Kui; Wiener, Howard; Beasley, Mark; George, Varghese; Amos, Christopher I; Allison, David B

2006-08-01

Individual genome scans for quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping often suffer from low statistical power and imprecise estimates of QTL location and effect. This lack of precision yields large confidence intervals for QTL location, which are problematic for subsequent fine mapping and positional cloning. In prioritizing areas for follow-up after an initial genome scan and in evaluating the credibility of apparent linkage signals, investigators typically examine the results of other genome scans of the same phenotype and informally update their beliefs about which linkage signals in their scan most merit confidence and follow-up via a subjective-intuitive integration approach. A method that acknowledges the wisdom of this general paradigm but formally borrows information from other scans to increase confidence in objectivity would be a benefit. We developed an empirical Bayes analytic method to integrate information from multiple genome scans. The linkage statistic obtained from a single genome scan study is updated by incorporating statistics from other genome scans as prior information. This technique does not require that all studies have an identical marker map or a common estimated QTL effect. The updated linkage statistic can then be used for the estimation of QTL location and effect. We evaluate the performance of our method by using extensive simulations based on actual marker spacing and allele frequencies from available data. Results indicate that the empirical Bayes method can account for between-study heterogeneity, estimate the QTL location and effect more precisely, and provide narrower confidence intervals than results from any single individual study. We also compared the empirical Bayes method with a method originally developed for meta-analysis (a closely related but distinct purpose). In the face of marked heterogeneity among studies, the empirical Bayes method outperforms the comparator.

β-empirical Bayes inference and model diagnosis of microarray data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossain Mollah Mohammad

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray data enables the high-throughput survey of mRNA expression profiles at the genomic level; however, the data presents a challenging statistical problem because of the large number of transcripts with small sample sizes that are obtained. To reduce the dimensionality, various Bayesian or empirical Bayes hierarchical models have been developed. However, because of the complexity of the microarray data, no model can explain the data fully. It is generally difficult to scrutinize the irregular patterns of expression that are not expected by the usual statistical gene by gene models. Results As an extension of empirical Bayes (EB procedures, we have developed the β-empirical Bayes (β-EB approach based on a β-likelihood measure which can be regarded as an ’evidence-based’ weighted (quasi- likelihood inference. The weight of a transcript t is described as a power function of its likelihood, fβ(yt|θ. Genes with low likelihoods have unexpected expression patterns and low weights. By assigning low weights to outliers, the inference becomes robust. The value of β, which controls the balance between the robustness and efficiency, is selected by maximizing the predictive β0-likelihood by cross-validation. The proposed β-EB approach identified six significant (p−5 contaminated transcripts as differentially expressed (DE in normal/tumor tissues from the head and neck of cancer patients. These six genes were all confirmed to be related to cancer; they were not identified as DE genes by the classical EB approach. When applied to the eQTL analysis of Arabidopsis thaliana, the proposed β-EB approach identified some potential master regulators that were missed by the EB approach. Conclusions The simulation data and real gene expression data showed that the proposed β-EB method was robust against outliers. The distribution of the weights was used to scrutinize the irregular patterns of expression and diagnose the model

Leadership styles across hierarchical levels in nursing departments.

Science.gov (United States)

Stordeur, S; Vandenberghe, C; D'hoore, W

2000-01-01

Some researchers have reported on the cascading effect of transformational leadership across hierarchical levels. One study examined this effect in nursing, but it was limited to a single hospital. To examine the cascading effect of leadership styles across hierarchical levels in a sample of nursing departments and to investigate the effect of hierarchical level on the relationships between leadership styles and various work outcomes. Based on a sample of eight hospitals, the cascading effect was tested using correlation analysis. The main sources of variation among leadership scores were determined with analyses of variance (ANOVA), and the interaction effect of hierarchical level and leadership styles on criterion variables was tested with moderated regression analysis. No support was found for a cascading effect of leadership across hierarchical levels. Rather, the variation of leadership scores was explained primarily by the organizational context. Transformational leadership had a stronger impact on criterion variables than transactional leadership. Interaction effects between leadership styles and hierarchical level were observed only for perceived unit effectiveness. The hospital's structure and culture are major determinants of leadership styles.

bayesQR: A Bayesian Approach to Quantile Regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dries F. Benoit

2017-01-01

Full Text Available After its introduction by Koenker and Basset (1978, quantile regression has become an important and popular tool to investigate the conditional response distribution in regression. The R package bayesQR contains a number of routines to estimate quantile regression parameters using a Bayesian approach based on the asymmetric Laplace distribution. The package contains functions for the typical quantile regression with continuous dependent variable, but also supports quantile regression for binary dependent variables. For both types of dependent variables, an approach to variable selection using the adaptive lasso approach is provided. For the binary quantile regression model, the package also contains a routine that calculates the fitted probabilities for each vector of predictors. In addition, functions for summarizing the results, creating traceplots, posterior histograms and drawing quantile plots are included. This paper starts with a brief overview of the theoretical background of the models used in the bayesQR package. The main part of this paper discusses the computational problems that arise in the implementation of the procedure and illustrates the usefulness of the package through selected examples.

Learning with hierarchical-deep models.

Science.gov (United States)

Salakhutdinov, Ruslan; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Torralba, Antonio

2013-08-01

We introduce HD (or “Hierarchical-Deep”) models, a new compositional learning architecture that integrates deep learning models with structured hierarchical Bayesian (HB) models. Specifically, we show how we can learn a hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) prior over the activities of the top-level features in a deep Boltzmann machine (DBM). This compound HDP-DBM model learns to learn novel concepts from very few training example by learning low-level generic features, high-level features that capture correlations among low-level features, and a category hierarchy for sharing priors over the high-level features that are typical of different kinds of concepts. We present efficient learning and inference algorithms for the HDP-DBM model and show that it is able to learn new concepts from very few examples on CIFAR-100 object recognition, handwritten character recognition, and human motion capture datasets.

Bayesian Estimation Of Shift Point In Poisson Model Under Asymmetric Loss Functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

uma srivastava

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with estimating  shift point which occurs in any sequence of independent observations  of Poisson model in statistical process control. This shift point occurs in the sequence when  i.e. m  life data are observed. The Bayes estimator on shift point 'm' and before and after shift process means are derived for symmetric and asymmetric loss functions under informative and non informative priors. The sensitivity analysis of Bayes estimators are carried out by simulation and numerical comparisons with  R-programming. The results shows the effectiveness of shift in sequence of Poisson disribution .

Short Term Sediment Exchange Between Marshes and Bays Using Beryllium-7 as a Tracer, Fourleague Bay, Louisiana.

Science.gov (United States)

Restreppo, G. A.; Bentley, S. J.; Xu, K.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

Modern delta models focus on the availability and exchange of coarse sediment as one of the major factors of deltaic growth or decay. Fine-grained sediment exchange within a river's delta is relatively poorly understood, as is the impact that this exchange has on land building and land loss. To better understand the dynamics of fine grain sediment exchange between river mouth, adjacent bays, and marshland, sediment cores from Fourleague Bay, LA, were collected and analyzed for 7Be, a naturally occurring radioisotope that serves as a marker for recently deposited sediment. Time-series push cores were collected every two months at ten sites, five located across a longitudinal transect in the middle bay and five located along adjacent marshes, from May 2015 to May 2016. All sites fall within 11 to 28 km of the Atchafalaya Delta, along a gradient extending towards the open ocean. Cores were extruded in 2 cm intervals, dried, ground, and analyzed via gamma spectrometry for the presence of 7Be. Inventories of 7Be were then calculated and used to determine bimonthly sedimentation rates over the course twelve months. Sediment deposition on the bay floor and marsh surface were then compared to Atchafalaya River discharge, wind speed and direction, and wave action. Preliminary results indicate patterns of initial fluvial sediment transfer from river to bay floor, then bay floor to marsh surface, with decreasing fluvial influence towards the open ocean. Sediment transport from bay to marsh appears to be coupled with meteorological forcing that induces bay-floor sediment resuspension and the flooding of marsh surfaces. This indirect mechanism of fluvial sediment supply to wetland surfaces may extend the region of influence for sediment delivery from man-made river-sediment diversions.

Benthic biogeochemical cycling, nutrient stoichiometry, and carbon and nitrogen mass balances in a eutrophic freshwater bay

Science.gov (United States)

Klump, J.V.; Fitzgerald, S.A.; Waplesa, J.T.

2009-01-01

Green Bay, while representing only ,7% of the surface area and ??1.4% of the volume of Lake Michigan, contains one-third of the watershed of the lake, and receives approximately one-third of the total nutrient loading to the Lake Michigan basin, largely from the Fox River at the southern end of the bay. With a history of eutrophic conditions dating back nearly a century, the southern portion of the bay behaves as an efficient nutrient and sediment trap, sequestering much of the annual carbon and nitrogen input within sediments accumulating at up to 1 cm per year. Depositional fluxes of organic matter varied from ??0.1 mol C m-2 yr-1 to >10 mol C m-2 yr-1 and were both fairly uniform in stoichiometric composition and relatively labile. Estimates of benthic recycling derived from pore-water concentration gradients, whole-sediment incubation experiments, and deposition-burial models of early diagenesis yielded an estimated 40% of the carbon and 50% of the nitrogen recycled back into the overlying water. Remineralization was relatively rapid with ??50% of the carbon remineralized within <15 yr of deposition, and a mean residence time for metabolizable carbon and nitrogen in the sediments of 20 yr. On average, organic carbon regeneration occurred as 75% CO2, 15% CH4, and 10% dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Carbon and nitrogen budgets for the southern bay were based upon direct measurements of inputs and burial and upon estimates of export and production derived stoichiometrically from a coupled phosphorus budget. Loadings of organic carbon from rivers were ??3.7 mol m-2 yr-1, 80% in the form of DOC and 20% as particulate organic carbon. These inputs were lost through export to northern Green Bay and Lake Michigan (39%), through sediment burial (26%), and net CO2 release to the atmosphere (35%). Total carbon input, including new production, was 4.54 mol m-2 C yr-1, equivalent to ??10% of the gross annual primary production. Nitrogen budget terms were less well quantified

A general Bayes weibull inference model for accelerated life testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorp, J. Rene van; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.

2005-01-01

This article presents the development of a general Bayes inference model for accelerated life testing. The failure times at a constant stress level are assumed to belong to a Weibull distribution, but the specification of strict adherence to a parametric time-transformation function is not required. Rather, prior information is used to indirectly define a multivariate prior distribution for the scale parameters at the various stress levels and the common shape parameter. Using the approach, Bayes point estimates as well as probability statements for use-stress (and accelerated) life parameters may be inferred from a host of testing scenarios. The inference procedure accommodates both the interval data sampling strategy and type I censored sampling strategy for the collection of ALT test data. The inference procedure uses the well-known MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods to derive posterior approximations. The approach is illustrated with an example

BOOK REVIEW OF "CHESAPEAKE BAY BLUES: SCIENCE, POLITICS, AND THE STRUGGLE TO SAVE THE BAY"

Science.gov (United States)

This is a book review of "Chesapeake Bay Blues: Science, Politics, and the Struggle to Save the Bay". This book is very well written and provides an easily understandable description of the political challenges faced by those proposing new or more stringent environmental regulat...

Latest results from Daya Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Vorobel, Vit; Daya Bay Collaboration

2017-07-01

The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment was designed to measure θ 13, the smallest mixing angle in the three-neutrino mixing framework, with unprecedented precision. The experiment consists of eight functionally identical detectors placed underground at different baselines from three pairs of nuclear reactors in South China. Since Dec. 2011, the experiment has been running stably for more than 4 years, and has collected the largest reactor anti-neutrino sample to date. Daya Bay is able to greatly improve the precision on θ 13 and to make an independent measurement of the effective mass splitting in the electron antineutrino disappearance channel. Daya Bay can also perform a number of other precise measurements, such as a high-statistics determination of the absolute reactor antineutrino flux and spectrum, as well as a search for sterile neutrino mixing, among others. The most recent results from Daya Bay are discussed in this paper, as well as the current status and future prospects of the experiment.

Assessment of the impact of oil spill on Mumbai harbor bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandit, G.G.; Saradhi, I.V.; Puranik, V.D.; Sharma, D.N.; Ghosh, A.K.

2011-04-01

On 7 th August, 2010 two cargo ships MSC Chitra and MV Khalijia collided off Mumbai coast causing an oil spill that spread quickly through Maharashtra's coastline. MSC Chitra ruptured its tank when it hit incoming MV Khalijia. MSC Chitra tilted to about 80 degrees soon after the collision, spilling an estimated 400 to 500 tonnes of oil. The ship was loaded with an estimated 2,600 tonnes of oil, 300 tonnes of diesel and 70 tonnes of lubricating oil at the time of the accident. The oil spill has spreaded over an area of 25 square kilometers. MSC Chitra was carrying 1219 containers out of which 31 had hazardous chemicals like organophosphate pesticides. After the collision about 400 containers fall off into to the sea from the deck of MSC Chitra. The oil spill has resulted in severe environmental damage along the Mumbai coastline as well as to the marine life. In order to assess the impact of oil spill on the marine environment daily monitoring of oil and grease levels has been carried out at CIRUS Jetty. Additionally three field surveys have been carried out along the coast line of Mumbai harbor bay from Vashi Jetty to Uran collecting sea water samples. The samples collected at CIRUS Jetty and Mumbai harbor bay are analyzed for various water quality parameters apart from oil and grease. The results indicate the oil and grease levels in sea water at CIRUS Jetty reduced to background levels within 15 days. The filed survey along Mumbai harbor bay also shows a decreasing trend in the oil and grease levels in seawater. (author)

Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen, Sara Tangmose

2016-01-01

When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regres...... the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.......When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical...... regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple...

Hierarchical analysis of acceptable use policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. A. Laughton

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Acceptable use policies (AUPs are vital tools for organizations to protect themselves and their employees from misuse of computer facilities provided. A well structured, thorough AUP is essential for any organization. It is impossible for an effective AUP to deal with every clause and remain readable. For this reason, some sections of an AUP carry more weight than others, denoting importance. The methodology used to develop the hierarchical analysis is a literature review, where various sources were consulted. This hierarchical approach to AUP analysis attempts to highlight important sections and clauses dealt with in an AUP. The emphasis of the hierarchal analysis is to prioritize the objectives of an AUP.

Remote sensing of particle backscattering in Chesapeake Bay: a 6-year SeaWiFS retrospective view

Science.gov (United States)

Zawada, D.G.; Hu, C.; Clayton, T.; Chen, Z.; Brock, J.C.; Muller-Karger, F. E.

2007-01-01

Traditional field techniques to monitor water quality in large estuaries, such as boat-based surveys and autonomous moored sensors, generally provide limited spatial coverage. Satellite imagery potentially can be used to address both of these limitations. Here, we show that satellite-based observations are useful for inferring total-suspended-solids (TSS) concentrations in estuarine areas. A spectra-matching optimization algorithm was used to estimate the particle backscattering coefficient at 400 nm, bbp(400), in Chesapeake Bay from Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite imagery. These estimated values of bbp(400) were compared to in situ measurements of TSS for the study period of September 1997–December 2003. Contemporaneous SeaWiFS bbp(400) values and TSS concentrations were positively correlated (N = 340, r2 = 0.4, P bp(400) values served as a reasonable first-order approximation for synoptically mapping TSS. Overall, large-scale patterns of SeaWiFS bbp(400) appeared to be consistent with expectations based on field observations and historical reports of TSS. Monthly averages indicated that SeaWiFS bbp(400) was typically largest in winter (>0.049 m−1, November–February) and smallest in summer (−1, June–August), regardless of the amount of riverine discharge to the bay. The study period also included Hurricanes Floyd and Isabel, which caused large-scale turbidity events and changes in the water quality of the bay. These results demonstrate that this technique can provide frequent synoptic assessments of suspended solids concentrations in Chesapeake Bay and other coastal regions.

Nutrient inputs through submarine groundwater discharge in an embayment: A radon investigation in Daya Bay, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuejing; Li, Hailong; Yang, Jinzhong; Zheng, Chunmiao; Zhang, Yan; An, An; Zhang, Meng; Xiao, Kai

2017-08-01

Daya Bay, a semi-closed bay of the South China Sea, is famous for its aquaculture, agriculture and tourism. Although routine environmental investigations in the bay have been conducted since the early 1980s, evaluations of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), an important process in exchange between groundwater and coastal seawater, and its environmental impacts have never been reported. In this study, naturally occurring radon isotope (222Rn) was measured continuously at two sites (north-west and middle-east sites) and used as a tracer to estimate SGD and associated nutrient inputs into the bay. The SGD rates estimated based on the 222Rn mass balance model were, on average, 28.2 cm/d at north-west site and 30.9 cm/d at middle-east site. The large SGD rate at middle-east site may be due to the large tidal amplitude and the sandy component with high permeability in sediments. The SGD-driven nutrient fluxes, which were calculated as the product of SGD flux and the difference of nutrient concentrations between coastal groundwater and seawater, were 3.28 × 105 mol/d for dissolved nitrates (NO3-N), 5.84 × 103 mol/d for dissolved inorganic phosphorous (DIP), and 8.97 × 105 mol/d for reactive silicate (Si). These nutrient inputs are comparable to or even higher than those supplied by local rivers. In addition, these SGD-driven nutrients have a nitrogen-phosphorous ratio as high as ∼43, which may significantly affect the ecology of coastal waters and lead to frequent occurrence of harmful algal blooms.

Levels and distribution of organophosphorus flame retardants and plasticizers in fishes from Manila Bay, the Philippines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Joon-Woo; Isobe, Tomohiko; Chang, Kwang-Hyeon; Amano, Atsuko; Maneja, Rommel H.; Zamora, Peter B.; Siringan, Fernando P.; Tanabe, Shinsuke

2011-01-01

Organophosphorus compounds (OPCs) and stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) were determined in 58 fishes belonging to 20 species collected from Manila Bay, the Philippines. OPCs were detected in most of the samples and found up to μg/g lw (lipid weight) level, suggesting their ubiquitous presence in the coastal marine environment of the Philippines. Higher levels (>1000 ng/g lw) of total OPCs were determined in yellowstriped goatfish, silver sillago, tripletail wrasse and bumpnose trevally indicates either their active uptake from ambient water or lower metabolic capacity of these species. Levels of triphenyl phosphate (TPhP) in demersal species showed a positive correlation with δ 15 N, indicating that TPhP was adsorbed onto the particle, settled down to the bottom sediment and accumulated through the benthic food web rather than the pelagic. Estimated dietary intake of OPCs in Manila Bay fishes were four to five orders of magnitude lower than the proposed reference dose (RfD). - Highlights: → Organophosphorus compounds (OPCs) were determined in fish from Manila Bay. → OPCs were detected up to μg/g lw, suggesting ubiquitous environmental contamination. → Among the 9 targeted OPCs, TEHP and TEP were found as the predominant compounds. → Estimated dietary intake through fish consumption was 4-5 orders of magnitude lower than RfD. → This is the first report on OPCs pollution in marine environment of Southeast Asia. - Occurrence and bioaccumulation of organophosphorus compounds (OPCs) were determined in fishes from Manila Bay.

Virtual timers in hierarchical real-time systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heuvel, van den M.M.H.P.; Holenderski, M.J.; Cools, W.A.; Bril, R.J.; Lukkien, J.J.; Zhu, D.

2009-01-01

Hierarchical scheduling frameworks (HSFs) provide means for composing complex real-time systems from welldefined subsystems. This paper describes an approach to provide hierarchically scheduled real-time applications with virtual event timers, motivated by the need for integrating priority

Towards a sustainable future in Hudson Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrainetz, G.

1991-01-01

To date, ca $40-50 billion has been invested in or committed to hydroelectric development on the rivers feeding Hudson Bay. In addition, billions more have been invested in land uses such as forestry and mining within the Hudson Bay drainage basin. However, there has never been a study of the possible impacts on Hudson Bay resulting from this activity. Neither has there been any federal environmental assessment on any of the economic developments that affect Hudson Bay. To fill this gap in knowledge, the Hudson Bay Program was established. The program will not conduct scientific field research but will rather scan the published literature and consult with leading experts in an effort to identify biophysical factors that are likely to be significantly affected by the cumulative influence of hydroelectric and other developments within and outside the region. An annotated bibliography on Hudson Bay has been completed and used to prepare a science overview paper, which will be circulated for comment, revised, and used as the basis for a workshop on cumulative effects in Hudson Bay. Papers will then be commissioned for a second workshop to be held in fall 1993. A unique feature of the program is its integration of traditional ecological knowledge among the Inuit and Cree communities around Hudson Bay with the scientific approach to cumulative impact assessment. One goal of the program is to help these communities bring forward their knowledge in such a way that it can be integrated into the cumulative effects assessment

Intra- and inter-annual trends in phosphorus loads and comparison with nitrogen loads to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Volk, J.A.; Scudlark, J.R.; Savidge, K.B.; Andres, A.S.; Stenger, R.J.; Ullman, W.J.

2012-01-01

Monthly phosphorus loads from uplands, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater to Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) were determined from October 1998 to April 2002 to evaluate the relative importance of these three sources of P to the Bay. Loads from a representative subwatershed were determined and used in an areal extrapolation to estimate the upland load from the entire watershed. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and dissolved organic P (DOP) are the predominant forms of P in baseflow and P loads from the watershed are highest during the summer months. Particulate phosphorus (PP) becomes more significant in stormflow and during periods with more frequent or larger storms. Atmospheric deposition of P is only a minor source of P to Rehoboth Bay. During the period of 1998-2002, wastewater was the dominant external source of P to Rehoboth Bay, often exceeding all other P sources combined. Since 2002, however, due to technical improvements to the sole wastewater plant discharging directly to the Bay, the wastewater contribution of P has been significantly reduced and upland waters are now the principal source of P on an annualized basis. Based on comparison of N and P loads, primary productivity and biomass carrying capacity in Rehoboth Bay should be limited by P availability. However, due to the contrasting spatial and temporal patterns of N and P loading and perhaps internal cycling within the ecosystem, spatial and temporal variations in N and P-limitation within Rehoboth Bay are likely. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

CERN Document Server

Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

2003-01-01

Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

The Validity Chlorophyll-a Estimation by Sun Induced Fluorescence in Estuarine Waters: An Analysis of Long-term (2003-2011) Water Quality Data from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Madrinan, Max Jacobo; Fischer, Andrew

2012-01-01

Satellite observation of phytoplankton concentration or chlorophyll-a is an important characteristic, critically integral to monitoring coastal water quality. However, the optical properties of estuarine and coastal waters are highly variable and complex and pose a great challenge for accurate analysis. Constituents such as suspended solids and dissolved organic matter and the overlapping and uncorrelated absorptions in the blue region of the spectrum renders the blue-green ratio algorithms for estimating chlorophyll-a inaccurate. Measurement of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, on the other hand, which utilizes the near infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, may provide a better estimate of phytoplankton concentrations. While modelling and laboratory studies have illustrated both the utility and limitations of satellite baseline algorithms based on the sun induced chlorophyll fluorescence signal, few have examined the empirical validity of these algorithms using a comprehensive long term in situ data set. In an unprecedented analysis of a long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), we assess the validity of the FLH product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) against chlorophyll ]a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions within the estuary including water depth, distance from shore and structures and eight water quality parameters. From the 39 station for which data was derived, 22 stations showed significant correlations when the FLH product was matched with in situ chlorophyll-alpha data. The correlations (r2) for individual stations within Tampa Bay ranged between 0.67 (n=28, pless than 0.01) and-0.457 (n=12, p=.016), indicating that

Shifting shoals and shattered rocks : How man has transformed the floor of west-central San Francisco Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, John L.; Wong, Florence L.; Carlson, Paul R.

2004-01-01

San Francisco Bay, one of the world's finest natural harbors and a major center for maritime trade, is referred to as the 'Gateway to the Pacific Rim.' The bay is an urbanized estuary that is considered by many to be the major estuary in the United States most modified by man's activities. The population around the estuary has grown rapidly since the 1850's and now exceeds 7 million people. The San Francisco Bay area's economy ranks as one of the largest in the world, larger even than that of many countries. More than 10 million tourists are estimated to visit the bay region each year. The bay area's population and associated development have increasingly changed the estuary and its environment. San Francisco Bay and the contiguous Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta encompass roughly 1,600 square miles (4,100 km2) and are the outlet of a major watershed that drains more than 40 percent of the land area of the State of California. This watershed provides drinking water for 20 million people (two thirds of the State's population) and irrigates 4.5 million acres of farmland and ranchland. During the past several decades, much has been done to clean up the environment and waters of San Francisco Bay. Conservationist groups have even bought many areas on the margins of the bay with the intention of restoring them to a condition more like the natural marshes they once were. However, many of the major manmade changes to the bay's environment occurred so long ago that the nature of them has been forgotten. In addition, many changes continue to occur today, such as the introduction of exotic species and the loss of commercial and sport fisheries because of declining fish populations. The economy and population of the nine counties that surround the bay continue to grow and put increasing pressure on the bay, both direct and indirect. Therefore, there are mixed signals for the future health and welfare of San Francisco Bay. The San Francisco Bay estuary consists of three

POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF SEDIMENT IN KENDARI BAY, SOUTHEAST SULAWESI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nur Adi Kristanto

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Kendari bay is located in front of Kendari city. There are two harbors in the inner part of bay which very important to support economic activities such as shipping and passenger transportation. The result of coastal characteristic mapping and physical oceanography survey show various coastal morphology, vegetation, weathering processes, sedimentation, currents, and water depth and sea floor morphology. Kendari bay is an enclosed bay; the area is wide in the inner part and narrow in mouth of bay (outlet, the morphology look like a bottle’s neck. Numerous mouth rivers are concentrate around the bay. The rivers load material from land since erosion on land is intensive enough. There is indication that sediment supplies from land trough river mouth not equivalent with outlet capacity. Sediment load is trapped in the inner bay caused the outlet morphology. So high sediment rate play an important role in the process of shallow of water depth in Kendari bay. This condition make the Kendari bay is a prone area of sediment hazard due to height rate of sedimentary process. Therefore, to anticipate the hazards, precaution should be taken related to the Kendari bay as the center of activities in southeast of Sulawesi. The further survey is needed such as marine geotechnique and on land environmental to collect data, which can be used as database for development planning. Key words: Potential hazard, sediment, Kendari Bay Teluk

Applied Bayesian hierarchical methods

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Congdon, P

2010-01-01

.... It also incorporates BayesX code, which is particularly useful in nonlinear regression. To demonstrate MCMC sampling from first principles, the author includes worked examples using the R package...

MODELING THE 1958 LITUYA BAY MEGA-TSUNAMI, II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles L. Mader

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Lituya Bay, Alaska is a T-Shaped bay, 7 miles long and up to 2 miles wide. The two arms at the head of the bay, Gilbert and Crillon Inlets, are part of a trench along the Fairweather Fault. On July 8, 1958, an 7.5 Magnitude earthquake occurred along the Fairweather fault with an epicenter near Lituya Bay.A mega-tsunami wave was generated that washed out trees to a maximum altitude of 520 meters at the entrance of Gilbert Inlet. Much of the rest of the shoreline of the Bay was denuded by the tsunami from 30 to 200 meters altitude.In the previous study it was determined that if the 520 meter high run-up was 50 to 100 meters thick, the observed inundation in the rest of Lituya Bay could be numerically reproduced. It was also concluded that further studies would require full Navier-Stokes modeling similar to those required for asteroid generated tsunami waves.During the Summer of 2000, Hermann Fritz conducted experiments that reproduced the Lituya Bay 1958 event. The laboratory experiments indicated that the 1958 Lituya Bay 524 meter run-up on the spur ridge of Gilbert Inlet could be caused by a landslide impact.The Lituya Bay impact landslide generated tsunami was modeled with the full Navier- Stokes AMR Eulerian compressible hydrodynamic code called SAGE with includes the effect of gravity.

Radionuclides in sediments from Port Phillip Bay, Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, J.D.; Tinker, R.A.; Towler, P.H.

1998-01-01

Full text: Sediment cores were collected from two sites in Port Phillip Bay, Australia, in 1994 and 1995. The concentration of 210 Pb and parameters including water content were measured. The sites chosen were near the centre of the bay where fine sediment accumulates, and towards the northern end of the bay closer to the mouth of the Yarra River. The mid-bay sediment had a high water content (about 1.8 g water per g dry sediment) and a supported 210 Pb activity of about 22 mBq per g of dry sediment. The sediments from further north in the bay were more consolidated, with a lower water content (about 0.6 g water per g dry sediment), and had a supported 210 Pb activity of about 6 mBq per g of dry sediment. Unsupported 210 Pb occurred to depths of about 10 cm in the mid-bay sediment and about 20 cm in sediment from further north in the bay. Models incorporating the water and 210 Pb contents of the sediments were used to calculate possible rates of sediment accumulation and mixing. The distribution of other radionuclides was used as an aid in understanding the sediment behaviour in Port Phillip Bay

Spatial variation, speciation and sedimentary records of mercury in the Guanabara Bay (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Covelli, Stefano; Protopsalti, Ioanna; Acquavita, Alessandro; Sperle, Marcelo; Bonardi, Maurizio; Emili, Andrea

2012-03-01

As part of the "TAGUBAR" (TAngential GUanabara Bay Aeration Recovery) project, surface and long core sediments of the Guanabara Bay (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) were investigated for mercury (Hg). The main, but not the only, input of Hg into the Bay's waters is known to be a Chlor-Alkali Plant (CAP) located in the Acarì-São João de Merití River system, on the northwestern side of the Bay. Mercury distribution in surface sediments (<0.1-3.22 mg kg-1, average 0.87±0.80, n=40) seems to be controlled by the organic component, along with sulfur rather than grain-size, where Hg concentrations are less than 1 mg kg-1. Conversely, where the metal contents are higher than 1 mg kg-1, accumulation in surface sediments is mostly related to the presence of nearby contamination sources, such as industrial and urban settlements in the western sector of the Bay. Although total Hg contents in surface sediments exceed the values suggested by the effects-based standard quality guidelines as potentially toxic for the benthic community, results from a sequential extraction procedure showed that the contribution of the more soluble, easily exchangeable and eventually bioavailable Hg phases was found almost negligible (<0.1%). Most of the metal is strongly bound to the mineral lattice of the sedimentary matrix and should therefore be considered almost immobilized. The reduction in Hg accumulation in bottom sediments, expected as a consequence of the adoption of contamination control policies (i.e. Hg-free technologies in the CAP and sewage treating facilities), has not been clearly observed in the core profiles. Current estimates of Hg accumulation rates at the core top range from approximately 1 to 18 mg m-2 yr-1. Pre-industrial bottom core samples indicate that the central and northeastern sectors of the Bay are strongly affected by Hg enrichment: concentrations exceed the estimated baseline concentration by up to 20 factors. A cumulative Hg inventory suggests that the metal content

Hierarchical organization versus self-organization

OpenAIRE

Busseniers, Evo

2014-01-01

In this paper we try to define the difference between hierarchical organization and self-organization. Organization is defined as a structure with a function. So we can define the difference between hierarchical organization and self-organization both on the structure as on the function. In the next two chapters these two definitions are given. For the structure we will use some existing definitions in graph theory, for the function we will use existing theory on (self-)organization. In the t...

Levels and ages of selenium and metals in sedimentary cores of Ise Bay as determined by 210-Pb dating technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, K.; Chikuma, M.; Tanaka, H.

1987-01-01

Ise Bay is connected with estuaries of Nagoya harbor which is one of the most active industrial areas in Japan. Nagoya harbor estuaries are recipient of a large quantity of municipal and industrial discharge. The land boundaries of estuaries are sites of the manufacturing industries and they are utilized by oil tankers and cargo vessels. Accumulation of various kinds of metal such as selenium, mercury, zinc, copper, lead, and chromium have occurred in sediments for many years. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation on the selenium pollution of sea water and sediments of Nagoya harbor estuaries. The input of selenium to Ise Bay has occurred ever since the industrial activity was established in Nagoya city. Investigators have reported the sedimentary record of metals of Tokyo Bay, Osaka Bay and Seto Inland Sea. Some investigators reported the pollution caused by polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbon in sediments of Ise Bay, but did not mention metals. The authors determined metals including selenium in sedimentary core samples. The ages of those samples were already estimated by 210-Pb dating technique

Global, regional, and subregional trends in unintended pregnancy and its outcomes from 1990 to 2014: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan Bearak, PhD

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Summary: Background: Estimates of pregnancy incidence by intention status and outcome indicate how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations, and can be used to monitor the impact of family-planning programmes. We estimate global, regional, and subregional pregnancy rates by intention status and outcome for 1990–2014. Methods: We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the unintended pregnancy rate is a function of the distribution of women across subgroups defined by marital status and contraceptive need and use, and of the risk of unintended pregnancy in each subgroup. Data included numbers of births and of women estimated by the UN Population Division, recently published abortion incidence estimates, and findings from surveys of women on the percentage of births or pregnancies that were unintended. Some 298 datapoints on the intention status of births or pregnancies were obtained for 105 countries. Findings: Worldwide, an estimated 44% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 42–48 of pregnancies were unintended in 2010–14. The unintended pregnancy rate declined by 30% (90% UI 21–39 in developed regions, from 64 (59–81 per 1000 women aged 15–44 years in 1990–94 to 45 (42–56 in 2010–14. In developing regions, the unintended pregnancy rate fell 16% (90% UI 5–24, from 77 (74–88 per 1000 women aged 15–44 years to 65 (62–76. Whereas the decline in the unintended pregnancy rate in developed regions coincided with a declining abortion rate, the decline in developing regions coincided with a declining unintended birth rate. In 2010–14, 59% (90% UI 54–65 of unintended pregnancies ended in abortion in developed regions, as did 55% (52–60 of unintended pregnancies in developing regions. Interpretation: The unintended pregnancy rate remains substantially higher in developing regions than in developed regions. Sexual and reproductive health services are needed to help women

Daya bay reactor neutrino experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Jun

2010-01-01

Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment is a large international collaboration experiment under construction. The experiment aims to precisely determine the neutrino mixing angle θ 13 by detecting the neutrinos produced by the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant. θ 13 is one of two unknown fundamental parameters in neutrino mixing. Its magnitude is a roadmap of the future neutrino physics, and very likely related to the puzzle of missing antimatter in our universe. The precise measurement has very important physics significance. The detectors of Daya Bay is under construction now. The full operation is expected in 2011. Three years' data taking will reach the designed the precision, to determine sin 2 2θ 13 to better than 0.01. Daya Bay neutrino detector is an underground large nuclear detector of low background, low energy, and high precision. In this paper, the layout of the experiment, the design and fabrication progress of the detectors, and some highlighted nuclear detecting techniques developed in the detector R and D are introduced. (author)

226Ra and 228Ra in the mixing zones of the Pee Dee River-Winyah Bay, Yangtze River and Delaware Bay Estuaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elsinger, R.J.; Moore, W.S.

1984-01-01

226 Ra and 228 Ra have non-conservative excess concentrations in the mixing zones of the Pee Dee River-Winyah Bay estuary, the Yangtze River estuary, and the Delaware Bay estuary. Laboratory experiments, using Pee Dee River sediment, indicate desorption of 226 Ra to increase with increasing salinities up to 20 per mille. In Winyah Bay desorption from river-borne sediments could contribute almost all of the increases for both isotopes. Desorption adds only a portion of the excess 228 Ra measured in the Yangtze River and adjacent Shelf waters and Delaware Bay. In the Yangtze River the mixing zone extends over a considerable portion of the Continental Shelf where 228 Ra is added to the water column by diffusion from bottom sediments, while 226 Ra concentrations decrease from dilution. Diffusion of 228 Ra from bottom sediments in Delaware Bay primarily occurs in the upper part of the bay ( 228 Ra of 0.33 dpm cm -2 year was determined for Delaware Bay. (author)

Deliberate change without hierarchical influence?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørskov, Sladjana; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm

2017-01-01

reveals that deliberate change is indeed achievable in a non-hierarchical collaborative OSS community context. However, it presupposes the presence and active involvement of informal change agents. The paper identifies and specifies four key drivers for change agents’ influence. Originality....../value The findings contribute to organisational analysis by providing a deeper understanding of the importance of leadership in making deliberate change possible in non-hierarchical settings. It points to the importance of “change-by-conviction”, essentially based on voluntary behaviour. This can open the door...

Multiparty hierarchical quantum-information splitting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xinwen; Zhang Dengyu; Tang Shiqing; Xie Lijun

2011-01-01

We propose a scheme for multiparty hierarchical quantum-information splitting (QIS) with a multipartite entangled state, where a boss distributes a secret quantum state to two grades of agents asymmetrically. The agents who belong to different grades have different authorities for recovering the boss's secret. Except for the boss's Bell-state measurement, no nonlocal operation is involved. The presented scheme is also shown to be secure against eavesdropping. Such a hierarchical QIS is expected to find useful applications in the field of modern multipartite quantum cryptography.

Biased trapping issue on weighted hierarchical networks

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

archical networks which are based on the classic scale-free hierarchical networks. ... Weighted hierarchical networks; weight-dependent walks; mean first passage ..... The weighted networks can mimic some real-world natural and social systems to ... the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education ...

The Neoglacial landscape and human history of Glacier Bay, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, southeast Alaska, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Connor, C.; Streveler, G.; Post, A.; Monteith, D.; Howell, W.

2009-01-01

The Neoglacial landscape of the Huna Tlingit homeland in Glacier Bay is recreated through new interpretations of the lower Bay's fjordal geomorphology, late Quaternary geology and its ethnographic landscape. Geological interpretation is enhanced by 38 radiocarbon dates compiled from published and unpublished sources, as well as 15 newly dated samples. Neoglacial changes in ice positions, outwash and lake extents are reconstructed for c. 5500?????"200 cal. yr ago, and portrayed as a set of three landscapes at 1600?????"1000, 500?????"300 and 300?????"200 cal. yr ago. This history reveals episodic ice advance towards the Bay mouth, transforming it from a fjordal seascape into a terrestrial environment dominated by glacier outwash sediments and ice-marginal lake features. This extensive outwash plain was building in lower Glacier Bay by at least 1600 cal. yr ago, and had filled the lower bay by 500 cal. yr ago. The geologic landscape evokes the human-described landscape found in the ethnographic literature. Neoglacial climate and landscape dynamism created difficult but endurable environmental conditions for the Huna Tlingit people living there. Choosing to cope with environmental hardship was perhaps preferable to the more severely deteriorating conditions outside of the Bay as well as conflicts with competing groups. The central portion of the outwash plain persisted until it was overridden by ice moving into Icy Strait between AD 1724?????"1794. This final ice advance was very abrupt after a prolonged still-stand, evicting the Huna Tlingit from their Glacier Bay homeland. ?? 2009 SAGE Publications.

Organic Matter Remineralization Predominates Phosphorus Cycling in the Mid-Bay Sediments in the Chesapeake Bay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sunendra, Joshi R.; Kukkadapu, Ravi K.; Burdige, David J.; Bowden, Mark E.; Sparks, Donald L.; Jaisi, Deb P.

2015-05-19

The Chesapeake Bay, the largest and most productive estuary in the US, suffers from varying degrees of water quality issues fueled by both point and non–point source nutrient sources. Restoration of the bay is complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources, their variable inputs and hydrological conditions, and complex interacting factors including climate forcing. These complexities not only restrict formulation of effective restoration plans but also open up debates on accountability issues with nutrient loading. A detailed understanding of sediment phosphorus (P) dynamics enables one to identify the exchange of dissolved constituents across the sediment- water interface and aid to better constrain mechanisms and processes controlling the coupling between the sediments and the overlying waters. Here we used phosphate oxygen isotope ratios (δ18Op) in concert with sediment chemistry, XRD, and Mössbauer spectroscopy on the sediment retrieved from an organic rich, sulfidic site in the meso-haline portion of the mid-bay to identify sources and pathway of sedimentary P cycling and to infer potential feedback effect on bottom water hypoxia and surface water eutrophication. Isotope data indicate that the regeneration of inorganic P from organic matter degradation (remineralization) is the predominant, if not sole, pathway for authigenic P precipitation in the mid-bay sediments. We interpret that the excess inorganic P generated by remineralization should have overwhelmed any bottom-water and/or pore-water P derived from other sources or biogeochemical processes and exceeded saturation with respect to authigenic P precipitation. It is the first research that identifies the predominance of remineralization pathway against remobilization (coupled Fe-P cycling) pathway in the Chesapeake Bay. Therefore, these results are expected to have significant implications for the current understanding of P cycling and benthic-pelagic coupling in the bay, particularly on the

Anti-hierarchical evolution of the active galactic nucleus space density in a hierarchical universe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enoki, Motohiro; Ishiyama, Tomoaki; Kobayashi, Masakazu A. R.; Nagashima, Masahiro

2014-01-01

Recent observations show that the space density of luminous active galactic nuclei (AGNs) peaks at higher redshifts than that of faint AGNs. This downsizing trend in the AGN evolution seems to be contradictory to the hierarchical structure formation scenario. In this study, we present the AGN space density evolution predicted by a semi-analytic model of galaxy and AGN formation based on the hierarchical structure formation scenario. We demonstrate that our model can reproduce the downsizing trend of the AGN space density evolution. The reason for the downsizing trend in our model is a combination of the cold gas depletion as a consequence of star formation, the gas cooling suppression in massive halos, and the AGN lifetime scaling with the dynamical timescale. We assume that a major merger of galaxies causes a starburst, spheroid formation, and cold gas accretion onto a supermassive black hole (SMBH). We also assume that this cold gas accretion triggers AGN activity. Since the cold gas is mainly depleted by star formation and gas cooling is suppressed in massive dark halos, the amount of cold gas accreted onto SMBHs decreases with cosmic time. Moreover, AGN lifetime increases with cosmic time. Thus, at low redshifts, major mergers do not always lead to luminous AGNs. Because the luminosity of AGNs is correlated with the mass of accreted gas onto SMBHs, the space density of luminous AGNs decreases more quickly than that of faint AGNs. We conclude that the anti-hierarchical evolution of the AGN space density is not contradictory to the hierarchical structure formation scenario.

Anti-hierarchical evolution of the active galactic nucleus space density in a hierarchical universe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Enoki, Motohiro [Faculty of Business Administration, Tokyo Keizai University, Kokubunji, Tokyo 185-8502 (Japan); Ishiyama, Tomoaki [Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577 (Japan); Kobayashi, Masakazu A. R. [Research Center for Space and Cosmic Evolution, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Ehime 790-8577 (Japan); Nagashima, Masahiro, E-mail: enokimt@tku.ac.jp [Faculty of Education, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Nagasaki 852-8521 (Japan)

2014-10-10

Recent observations show that the space density of luminous active galactic nuclei (AGNs) peaks at higher redshifts than that of faint AGNs. This downsizing trend in the AGN evolution seems to be contradictory to the hierarchical structure formation scenario. In this study, we present the AGN space density evolution predicted by a semi-analytic model of galaxy and AGN formation based on the hierarchical structure formation scenario. We demonstrate that our model can reproduce the downsizing trend of the AGN space density evolution. The reason for the downsizing trend in our model is a combination of the cold gas depletion as a consequence of star formation, the gas cooling suppression in massive halos, and the AGN lifetime scaling with the dynamical timescale. We assume that a major merger of galaxies causes a starburst, spheroid formation, and cold gas accretion onto a supermassive black hole (SMBH). We also assume that this cold gas accretion triggers AGN activity. Since the cold gas is mainly depleted by star formation and gas cooling is suppressed in massive dark halos, the amount of cold gas accreted onto SMBHs decreases with cosmic time. Moreover, AGN lifetime increases with cosmic time. Thus, at low redshifts, major mergers do not always lead to luminous AGNs. Because the luminosity of AGNs is correlated with the mass of accreted gas onto SMBHs, the space density of luminous AGNs decreases more quickly than that of faint AGNs. We conclude that the anti-hierarchical evolution of the AGN space density is not contradictory to the hierarchical structure formation scenario.

Enhanced land subsidence in Galveston Bay, Texas: Interaction between sediment accumulation rates and relative sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Al Mukaimi, Mohammad E.; Dellapenna, Timothy M.; Williams, Joshua R.

2018-07-01

Galveston Bay is the second largest estuary along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, with a watershed containing one of largest concentrations of petroleum and chemical industries globally, as well as Houston, the fifth largest metropolitan area in the USA. Throughout the last century, extensive groundwater extraction to support these industries and an expanding population has resulted in significantly enhanced land subsidence (0.6-3.0 cm yr-1). The highest subsidence rates observed in the bay are within the lower 15 km of the San Jacinto River/Houston Ship Channel region (SJR/HSC), with distal areas in East and West Galveston Bays having subsidence rates on the order of 0.2 cm yr-1. In order to investigate the impacts of subsidence on sedimentation, a series of 22 vibracores were collected throughout the bay, and 210Pb and 137Cs radioisotope geochronologies and grain size distributions were determined. Sediment accumulation rates are highest (1.9 ± 0.5 cm yr-1) in the SJR/HSC, and decrease (sedimentation rates are significantly (p sedimentation rates are lower (as much as 50%) than estimated RSLR, indicating a sediment accretionary deficit. In areas (e.g., Scott Bay) within the SJR/HSC, the bay has deepened by more than 1.5 m, suggesting that sediment accumulation cannot keep pace with RSLR. Ultimately, this has resulted in a loss of coastal wetlands and a conversion of marine habitats from relatively shallow to deeper water settings.

Depth profile distribution of Cr, Cu, Co, Ni and Pb in the sediment cores of Mumbai Harbour Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madhuparna, D.; Hemalatha, P.; Raj, Sanu S.; Jha, S.K.; Tripathi, R.M.

2014-01-01

Estuarine and coastal sediments act as ultimate sink for trace metals that are discharged into the aquatic environment. Sources of environmental contaminants to the coastal system are numerous and may enter the estuarine environment via a number of pathways Mumbai Harbour Bay on the western coast of India, receives low level nuclear wastes and industrial and domestic sewage waste from the surrounding dwellings. Also, the bay is extensively exploited for various other local activities. The present study was carried out in the bay sediment cores to investigate the depth profile distribution of trace element concentration. Biologically significant toxic elements such as Cr, Cu, Co, Ni and Pb were estimated in the sediment cores to find out pattern of distribution in the sediment bed to follow the accumulation of elements with respect to depth

Arbovirus circulation, temporal distribution, and abundance of mosquito species in two Carolina bay habitats.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, D I; Wozniak, A; Tolson, M W; Turner, P E

2005-01-01

Carolina bays, a type of geomorphic feature, may be important in the ecology of mosquito vectors in South Carolina. Their hydrology varies from wetland habitats with marked flooding/drying regimes to permanently flooded spring-fed lakes. Moreover, they possess characteristics that contribute to the support of a particularly abundant and diverse invertebrate fauna. Although it has been estimated that 2,700+ bays exist in South Carolina, approximately 97% have been altered; Heritage Preserve (SBHP) and Woods Bay State Park (WBSP), from June 1997 to July 1998 to determine mosquito temporal distribution, species composition, and the occurrence of arbovirus activity. The largest mosquito collection was obtained at WBSP (n = 31,172) representing 25 species followed by SBHP (n = 3,940) with 24 species. Anopheles crucians complex were the most common species encountered in both bays. Two virus isolates were obtained from SBHP in 1997: Keystone (KEY) virus from Ochlerotatus atlanticus-tormentor and Cache Valley (CV) virus from Oc. canadensis canadensis. Twenty-nine (29) arbovirus-positive pools were obtained from WBSP: 28 in 1997 and one in 1998. KEY virus was isolated from three pools of Oc. atlanticus-tormentor and Tensaw (TEN) virus was isolated from two pools of An. crucians complex; 10 isolates could not be identified with the sera available. Additionally, 14 pools of An. crucians complex tested positive for Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) virus antigen. These represent the first record of KEY and CV viruses in South Carolina. Our data indicate the presence of high mosquito density and diversity in both Carolina bay habitats, which may be influenced, in part, by seasonal changes in their hydroperiods. The study of mosquito and arbovirus ecology in Carolina Bay habitats could provide more information on the transmission dynamics of arboviruses and its impact on human and animal arboviral disease occurrence in South Carolina.

Algae Reefs in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

1990-01-01

Numerous algae reefs are seen in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia (26.0S, 113.5E) especially in the southern portions of the bay. The south end is more saline because tidal flow in and out of the bay is restricted by sediment deposited at the north and central end of the bay opposite the mouth of the Wooramel River. This extremely arid region produces little sediment runoff so that the waters are very clear, saline and rich in algae.

Summary on Bayes estimation and hypothesis testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. J. de Waal

1988-03-01

Full Text Available Although Bayes’ theorem was published in 1764, it is only recently that Bayesian procedures were used in practice in statistical analyses. Many developments have taken place and are still taking place in the areas of decision theory and group decision making. Two aspects, namely that of estimation and tests of hypotheses, will be looked into. This is the area of statistical inference mainly concerned with Mathematical Statistics.

Discovering hierarchical structure in normal relational data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten

2014-01-01

-parametric generative model for hierarchical clustering of similarity based on multifurcating Gibbs fragmentation trees. This allows us to infer and display the posterior distribution of hierarchical structures that comply with the data. We demonstrate the utility of our method on synthetic data and data of functional...

Unique thermal record in False Bay

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Grundlingh, ML

1993-10-01

Full Text Available Over the past decade False Bay has assumed a prime position in terms of research in to large South African bays. This is manifested by investigations that cover flow conditions modelling, thermal structure, management, biology and nutrients, geology...

Bayes filter modification for drivability map estimation with observations from stereo vision

Science.gov (United States)

Panchenko, Aleksei; Prun, Viktor; Turchenkov, Dmitri

2017-02-01

Reconstruction of a drivability map for a moving vehicle is a well-known research topic in applied robotics. Here creating such a map for an autonomous truck on a generally planar surface containing separate obstacles is considered. The source of measurements for the truck is a calibrated pair of cameras. The stereo system detects and reconstructs several types of objects, such as road borders, other vehicles, pedestrians and general tall objects or highly saturated objects (e.g. road cone). For creating a robust mapping module we use a modification of Bayes filtering, which introduces some novel techniques for occupancy map update step. Specifically, our modified version becomes applicable to the presence of false positive measurement errors, stereo shading and obstacle occlusion. We implemented the technique and achieved real-time 15 FPS computations on an industrial shake proof PC. Our real world experiments show the positive effect of the filtering step.

A meta-analysis accounting for sources of variability to estimate heat resistance reference parameters of bacteria using hierarchical Bayesian modeling: Estimation of D at 121.1 °C and pH 7, zT and zpH of Geobacillus stearothermophilus.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigaux, Clémence; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Albert, Isabelle; Carlin, Frédéric

2013-02-01

Predicting microbial survival requires reference parameters for each micro-organism of concern. When data are abundant and publicly available, a meta-analysis is a useful approach for assessment of these parameters, which can be performed with hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Geobacillus stearothermophilus is a major agent of microbial spoilage of canned foods and is therefore a persistent problem in the food industry. The thermal inactivation parameters of G. stearothermophilus (D(ref), i.e.the decimal reduction time D at the reference temperature 121.1°C and pH 7.0, z(T) and z(pH)) were estimated from a large set of 430 D values mainly collected from scientific literature. Between-study variability hypotheses on the inactivation parameters D(ref), z(T) and z(pH) were explored, using three different hierarchical Bayesian models. Parameter estimations were made using Bayesian inference and the models were compared with a graphical and a Bayesian criterion. Results show the necessity to account for random effects associated with between-study variability. Assuming variability on D(ref), z(T) and z(pH), the resulting distributions for D(ref), z(T) and z(pH) led to a mean of 3.3 min for D(ref) (95% Credible Interval CI=[0.8; 9.6]), to a mean of 9.1°C for z(T) (CI=[5.4; 13.1]) and to a mean of 4.3 pH units for z(pH) (CI=[2.9; 6.3]), in the range pH 3 to pH 7.5. Results are also given separating variability and uncertainty in these distributions, as well as adjusted parametric distributions to facilitate further use of these results in aqueous canned foods such as canned vegetables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Road Network Selection Based on Road Hierarchical Structure Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HE Haiwei

2015-04-01

Full Text Available A new road network selection method based on hierarchical structure is studied. Firstly, road network is built as strokes which are then classified into hierarchical collections according to the criteria of betweenness centrality value (BC value. Secondly, the hierarchical structure of the strokes is enhanced using structural characteristic identification technique. Thirdly, the importance calculation model was established according to the relationships among the hierarchical structure of the strokes. Finally, the importance values of strokes are got supported with the model's hierarchical calculation, and with which the road network is selected. Tests are done to verify the advantage of this method by comparing it with other common stroke-oriented methods using three kinds of typical road network data. Comparision of the results show that this method had few need to semantic data, and could eliminate the negative influence of edge strokes caused by the criteria of BC value well. So, it is better to maintain the global hierarchical structure of road network, and suitable to meet with the selection of various kinds of road network at the same time.

Hierarchically Structured Electrospun Fibers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicole E. Zander

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Traditional electrospun nanofibers have a myriad of applications ranging from scaffolds for tissue engineering to components of biosensors and energy harvesting devices. The generally smooth one-dimensional structure of the fibers has stood as a limitation to several interesting novel applications. Control of fiber diameter, porosity and collector geometry will be briefly discussed, as will more traditional methods for controlling fiber morphology and fiber mat architecture. The remainder of the review will focus on new techniques to prepare hierarchically structured fibers. Fibers with hierarchical primary structures—including helical, buckled, and beads-on-a-string fibers, as well as fibers with secondary structures, such as nanopores, nanopillars, nanorods, and internally structured fibers and their applications—will be discussed. These new materials with helical/buckled morphology are expected to possess unique optical and mechanical properties with possible applications for negative refractive index materials, highly stretchable/high-tensile-strength materials, and components in microelectromechanical devices. Core-shell type fibers enable a much wider variety of materials to be electrospun and are expected to be widely applied in the sensing, drug delivery/controlled release fields, and in the encapsulation of live cells for biological applications. Materials with a hierarchical secondary structure are expected to provide new superhydrophobic and self-cleaning materials.

Hierarchical control of electron-transfer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Westerhoff, Hans V.; Jensen, Peter Ruhdal; Egger, Louis

1997-01-01

In this chapter the role of electron transfer in determining the behaviour of the ATP synthesising enzyme in E. coli is analysed. It is concluded that the latter enzyme lacks control because of special properties of the electron transfer components. These properties range from absence of a strong...... back pressure by the protonmotive force on the rate of electron transfer to hierarchical regulation of the expression of the gens that encode the electron transfer proteins as a response to changes in the bioenergetic properties of the cell.The discussion uses Hierarchical Control Analysis...

NUMERICAL MODELS AS TOOLS TO UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS IN BAYS: CASE OF STUDY CHETUMAL BAY, QUINTANA ROO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Avalos-Cueva

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In this study performed the simulation of currents generated by the wind on the Bay of Chetumal, Quintana Roo through the use of a stationary shallow-water model. A homogeneous climatic wind was used for the entire Bay, with a velocity of 3m·s-1 , and directions North, South, Northeast, Northwest, East, Southeast, Southwest and West. The results showed a rather complex dynamics in Chetumal Bay, in which important turns were observed in deep areas, with speeds reaching up to 13 cm·s-1 .

Real-Time GPS Monitoring for Earthquake Rapid Assessment in the San Francisco Bay Area

Science.gov (United States)

Guillemot, C.; Langbein, J. O.; Murray, J. R.

2012-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center has deployed a network of eight real-time Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the San Francisco Bay area and is implementing software applications to continuously evaluate the status of the deformation within the network. Real-time monitoring of the station positions is expected to provide valuable information for rapidly estimating source parameters should a large earthquake occur in the San Francisco Bay area. Because earthquake response applications require robust data access, as a first step we have developed a suite of web-based applications which are now routinely used to monitor the network's operational status and data streaming performance. The web tools provide continuously updated displays of important telemetry parameters such as data latency and receive rates, as well as source voltage and temperature information within each instrument enclosure. Automated software on the backend uses the streaming performance data to mitigate the impact of outages, radio interference and bandwidth congestion on deformation monitoring operations. A separate set of software applications manages the recovery of lost data due to faulty communication links. Displacement estimates are computed in real-time for various combinations of USGS, Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network stations. We are currently comparing results from two software packages (one commercial and one open-source) used to process 1-Hz data on the fly and produce estimates of differential positions. The continuous monitoring of telemetry makes it possible to tune the network to minimize the impact of transient interruptions of the data flow, from one or more stations, on the estimated positions. Ongoing work is focused on using data streaming performance history to optimize the quality of the position, reduce drift and outliers by switching to the best set of stations within the network, and

Pendugaan Angka Kematian Bayi dengan Menggunakan Model Poisson Bayes Berhirarki Dua-Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nusar Hajarisman

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Official institutions of national data providers such as the BPS-Statistics Indonesia is required to produce and present the statistical information, as necessary as a form of contributory BPS region in support of regional development policy and planning. There are survey conducted by BPS capability estimation techniques are still limited, due to the resulting estimators have not been able to directly assumed for small areas. In this article we propose the hierarchical Bayesian models, especially for count data which are Poisson distributed, in small area estimation problem. The model was developed by combining concept of generalized linear model and Fay-Herriot model. The results of the development of this model is implemented to estimate the infant mortality rate in Bojonegoro district, East Java Province.

76 FR 31851 - Safety Zone; Put-in-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock Pier; South Bass Island, Put-in-Bay, OH

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-02

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 [Docket No. USCG-2011-0417] RIN 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Put-in-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock Pier; South Bass Island, Put-in-Bay, OH AGENCY.... Add Sec. 165.T09-0417 as follows: Sec. 165.T09-0417 Safety Zone; Put-In-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock...

Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Y.; Lapointe, N.W.R.; Angermeier, P.L.; Murphy, B.R.

2009-01-01

Models of species' demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species' native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species' demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective

Multi-objective hierarchical genetic algorithms for multilevel redundancy allocation optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Ranjan [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)], E-mail: ranjan.k@ks3.ecs.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Izui, Kazuhiro [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)], E-mail: izui@prec.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Yoshimura, Masataka [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)], E-mail: yoshimura@prec.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Nishiwaki, Shinji [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)], E-mail: shinji@prec.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2009-04-15

Multilevel redundancy allocation optimization problems (MRAOPs) occur frequently when attempting to maximize the system reliability of a hierarchical system, and almost all complex engineering systems are hierarchical. Despite their practical significance, limited research has been done concerning the solving of simple MRAOPs. These problems are not only NP hard but also involve hierarchical design variables. Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been applied in solving MRAOPs, since they are computationally efficient in solving such problems, unlike exact methods, but their applications has been confined to single-objective formulation of MRAOPs. This paper proposes a multi-objective formulation of MRAOPs and a methodology for solving such problems. In this methodology, a hierarchical GA framework for multi-objective optimization is proposed by introducing hierarchical genotype encoding for design variables. In addition, we implement the proposed approach by integrating the hierarchical genotype encoding scheme with two popular multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGAs)-the strength Pareto evolutionary genetic algorithm (SPEA2) and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). In the provided numerical examples, the proposed multi-objective hierarchical approach is applied to solve two hierarchical MRAOPs, a 4- and a 3-level problems. The proposed method is compared with a single-objective optimization method that uses a hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA), also applied to solve the 3- and 4-level problems. The results show that a multi-objective hierarchical GA (MOHGA) that includes elitism and mechanism for diversity preserving performed better than a single-objective GA that only uses elitism, when solving large-scale MRAOPs. Additionally, the experimental results show that the proposed method with NSGA-II outperformed the proposed method with SPEA2 in finding useful Pareto optimal solution sets.

Multi-objective hierarchical genetic algorithms for multilevel redundancy allocation optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Ranjan; Izui, Kazuhiro; Yoshimura, Masataka; Nishiwaki, Shinji

2009-01-01

Multilevel redundancy allocation optimization problems (MRAOPs) occur frequently when attempting to maximize the system reliability of a hierarchical system, and almost all complex engineering systems are hierarchical. Despite their practical significance, limited research has been done concerning the solving of simple MRAOPs. These problems are not only NP hard but also involve hierarchical design variables. Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been applied in solving MRAOPs, since they are computationally efficient in solving such problems, unlike exact methods, but their applications has been confined to single-objective formulation of MRAOPs. This paper proposes a multi-objective formulation of MRAOPs and a methodology for solving such problems. In this methodology, a hierarchical GA framework for multi-objective optimization is proposed by introducing hierarchical genotype encoding for design variables. In addition, we implement the proposed approach by integrating the hierarchical genotype encoding scheme with two popular multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGAs)-the strength Pareto evolutionary genetic algorithm (SPEA2) and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). In the provided numerical examples, the proposed multi-objective hierarchical approach is applied to solve two hierarchical MRAOPs, a 4- and a 3-level problems. The proposed method is compared with a single-objective optimization method that uses a hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA), also applied to solve the 3- and 4-level problems. The results show that a multi-objective hierarchical GA (MOHGA) that includes elitism and mechanism for diversity preserving performed better than a single-objective GA that only uses elitism, when solving large-scale MRAOPs. Additionally, the experimental results show that the proposed method with NSGA-II outperformed the proposed method with SPEA2 in finding useful Pareto optimal solution sets

Hierarchical Neural Regression Models for Customer Churn Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Golshan Mohammadi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available As customers are the main assets of each industry, customer churn prediction is becoming a major task for companies to remain in competition with competitors. In the literature, the better applicability and efficiency of hierarchical data mining techniques has been reported. This paper considers three hierarchical models by combining four different data mining techniques for churn prediction, which are backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANN, self-organizing maps (SOM, alpha-cut fuzzy c-means (α-FCM, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The hierarchical models are ANN + ANN + Cox, SOM + ANN + Cox, and α-FCM + ANN + Cox. In particular, the first component of the models aims to cluster data in two churner and nonchurner groups and also filter out unrepresentative data or outliers. Then, the clustered data as the outputs are used to assign customers to churner and nonchurner groups by the second technique. Finally, the correctly classified data are used to create Cox proportional hazards model. To evaluate the performance of the hierarchical models, an Iranian mobile dataset is considered. The experimental results show that the hierarchical models outperform the single Cox regression baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy, Types I and II errors, RMSE, and MAD metrics. In addition, the α-FCM + ANN + Cox model significantly performs better than the two other hierarchical models.

Estimating Vertical Land Motion in the Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Houttuijn Bloemendaal, L.; Hensel, P.

2017-12-01

This study aimed to provide a modern measurement of subsidence in the Chesapeake Bay region and establish a methodology for measuring vertical land motion using static GPS, a cheaper alternative to InSAR or classical leveling. Vertical land motion in this area is of particular concern because tide gages are showing up to 5 mm/yr of local, relative sea level rise. While a component of this rate is the actual eustatic sea level rise itself, part of the trend may also be vertical land motion, in which subsidence exacerbates the effects of actual changes in sea level. Parts of this region are already experiencing an increase in the frequency and magnitude of near-shore coastal flooding, but the last comprehensive study of vertical land motion in this area was conducted by NOAA in 1974 (Holdahl & Morrison) using repeat leveled lines. More recent measures of vertical land motion can help inform efforts on resilience to sea level rise, such as in the Hampton Roads area. This study used measured GPS-derived vertical heights in conjunction with legacy GPS data to calculate rates of vertical motion at several points in time for a selection of benchmarks scattered throughout the region. Seventeen marks in the stable Piedmont area and in the areas suspected of subsidence in the Coastal Plain were selected for the analysis. Results indicate a significant difference between the rates of vertical motion in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, with a mean rate of -4.10 mm/yr in the Coastal Plain and 0.15 mm/yr in the Piedmont. The rates indicate particularly severe subsidence at the southern Delmarva Peninsula coast and the Hampton-Roads area, with a mean rate of -6.57 mm/yr in that region. By knowing local rates of subsidence as opposed to sea level change itself, coastal managers may make better informed decisions regarding natural resource use, such as deciding whether or not to reduce subsurface fluid withdrawals or to consider injecting treated water back into the aquifer to slow

Chesapeake Bay under stress

Science.gov (United States)

According to extensive data obtained over its 13,000 km of shoreline, the Chesapeake Bay has been suffering a major, indeed unprecedented, reduction in submerged vegetation. Chesapeake Bay is alone in experiencing decline in submerged vegetation. Other estuary systems on the east coast of the United States are not so affected. These alarming results were obtained by the synthesis of the findings of numerous individual groups in addition to large consortium projects on the Chesapeake done over the past decade. R. J. Orth and R. A. Moore of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science pointed to the problem of the severe decline of submerged grasses on the Bay and along its tributaries. In a recent report, Orth and Moore note: “The decline, which began in the 1960's and accelerated in the 1970's, has affected all species in all areas. Many major river systems are now totally devoid of any rooted vegetation” (Science, 222, 51-53, 1983).

Chondrichthyan occurrence and abundance trends in False Bay ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Commercial fishing in False Bay, South Africa, began in the 1600s. Today chondrichthyans are regularly taken in fisheries throughout the bay. Using a combination of catch, survey and life history data, the occurrence and long-term changes in populations of chondrichthyans in False Bay are described. Analyses of time ...

Sequential bayes estimation algorithm with cubic splines on uniform meshes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hossfeld, F.; Mika, K.; Plesser-Walk, E.

1975-11-01

After outlining the principles of some recent developments in parameter estimation, a sequential numerical algorithm for generalized curve-fitting applications is presented combining results from statistical estimation concepts and spline analysis. Due to its recursive nature, the algorithm can be used most efficiently in online experimentation. Using computer-sumulated and experimental data, the efficiency and the flexibility of this sequential estimation procedure is extensively demonstrated. (orig.) [de

Toxic phytoplankton in San Francisco Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Kristine M.; Garrison, David L.; Cloern, James E.

1996-01-01

The Regional Monitoring Program (RMP) was conceived and designed to document the changing distribution and effects of trace substances in San Francisco Bay, with focus on toxic contaminants that have become enriched by human inputs. However, coastal ecosystems like San Francisco Bay also have potential sources of naturally-produced toxic substances that can disrupt food webs and, under extreme circumstances, become threats to public health. The most prevalent source of natural toxins is from blooms of algal species that can synthesize metabolites that are toxic to invertebrates or vertebrates. Although San Francisco Bay is nutrient-rich, it has so far apparently been immune from the epidemic of harmful algal blooms in the world’s nutrient-enriched coastal waters. This absence of acute harmful blooms does not imply that San Francisco Bay has unique features that preclude toxic blooms. No sampling program has been implemented to document the occurrence of toxin-producing algae in San Francisco Bay, so it is difficult to judge the likelihood of such events in the future. This issue is directly relevant to the goals of RMP because harmful species of phytoplankton have the potential to disrupt ecosystem processes that support animal populations, cause severe illness or death in humans, and confound the outcomes of toxicity bioassays such as those included in the RMP. Our purpose here is to utilize existing data on the phytoplankton community of San Francisco Bay to provide a provisional statement about the occurrence, distribution, and potential threats of harmful algae in this Estuary.

Assimilating irregularly spaced sparsely observed turbulent signals with hierarchical Bayesian reduced stochastic filters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Kristen A.; Harlim, John

2013-01-01

In this paper, we consider a practical filtering approach for assimilating irregularly spaced, sparsely observed turbulent signals through a hierarchical Bayesian reduced stochastic filtering framework. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach consists of two steps, blending a data-driven interpolation scheme and the Mean Stochastic Model (MSM) filter. We examine the potential of using the deterministic piecewise linear interpolation scheme and the ordinary kriging scheme in interpolating irregularly spaced raw data to regularly spaced processed data and the importance of dynamical constraint (through MSM) in filtering the processed data on a numerically stiff state estimation problem. In particular, we test this approach on a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model in a two-dimensional domain with a small radius of deformation to mimic ocean turbulence. Our numerical results suggest that the dynamical constraint becomes important when the observation noise variance is large. Second, we find that the filtered estimates with ordinary kriging are superior to those with linear interpolation when observation networks are not too sparse; such robust results are found from numerical simulations with many randomly simulated irregularly spaced observation networks, various observation time intervals, and observation error variances. Third, when the observation network is very sparse, we find that both the kriging and linear interpolations are comparable

Estimation of past sea-level variations based on ground-penetrating radar mapping of beach-ridges - preliminary results from Feddet, Faxe Bay, eastern Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Nielsen, Lars; Clemmensen, Lars B

2011-01-01

Estimates of past sea-level variations based on different methods and techniques have been presented in a range of studies, including interpretation of beach ridge characteristics. In Denmark, Holocene beach ridge plains have been formed during the last c. 7700 years, a period characterised by both...... isostatic uplift and changes in eustatic sea-level, and therefore represent an archive of past relative sea-level variations. Here, we present preliminary results from investigation of beach ridges from Feddet, a small peninsula located in Faxe Bay (Baltic Sea) in the eastern part of Denmark. Feddet has...... been chosen as a key-locality in this project, as it is located relatively close to the current 0-isobase of isostatic rebound. GPR reflection data have been acquired with shielded 250 MHz Sensors & software antennae along a number of profile lines across beach ridge and swale structures of the Feddet...

Heavy metals in superficial sediment of Algiers Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benamar, M.A.; Toumert, C.L.; Chaouch, L.; Bacha, L.; Tobbeche, S.

1996-01-01

Sediment samples were collected in 33 stations from the bay of Algiers for the potential sources of pollution. the analyses were made x-ray fluorescence (XRF) and atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) the results give information about level of concentrations morphology of the bay (funnel form of bay). only Co,Mn,Fe, and Cd present a particular repartition (unrelated to the sedimentary facies). the level pollution bu heavy metals of the bottom sediments in algiers bay have been compared with those of Surkouk considered as a region with low anthropogenic activities

Hierarchical subtask discovery with non-negative matrix factorization

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Earle, AC

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Hierarchical reinforcement learning methods offer a powerful means of planning flexible behavior in complicated domains. However, learning an appropriate hierarchical decomposition of a domain into subtasks remains a substantial challenge. We...

Hierarchical subtask discovery with non-negative matrix factorization

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Earle, AC

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Hierarchical reinforcement learning methods offer a powerful means of planning flexible behavior in complicated domains. However, learning an appropriate hierarchical decomposition of a domain into subtasks remains a substantial challenge. We...

Estimation of Conditional Quantile using Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

1999-01-01

The problem of estimating conditional quantiles using neural networks is investigated here. A basic structure is developed using the methodology of kernel estimation, and a theory guaranteeing con-sistency on a mild set of assumptions is provided. The constructed structure constitutes a basis...... for the design of a variety of different neural networks, some of which are considered in detail. The task of estimating conditional quantiles is related to Bayes point estimation whereby a broad range of applications within engineering, economics and management can be suggested. Numerical results illustrating...... the capabilities of the elaborated neural network are also given....

Understanding Aggregation and Estimating Seasonal Abundance of Chrysaora quinquecirrha Medusae from a Fixed-station Time Series in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Tay, J.; Hood, R. R.

2016-02-01

Although jellyfish exert strong control over marine plankton dynamics (Richardson et al. 2009, Robison et al. 2014) and negatively impact human commercial and recreational activities (Purcell et al. 2007, Purcell 2012), jellyfish biomass is not well quantified due primarily to sampling difficulties with plankton nets or fisheries trawls (Haddock 2004). As a result, some of the longest records of jellyfish are visual shore-based surveys, such as the fixed-station time series of Chrysaora quinquecirrha that began in 1960 in the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay, USA (Cargo and King 1990). Time series counts from fixed-station surveys capture two signals: 1) demographic change at timescales on the order of reproductive processes and 2) spatial patchiness at shorter timescales as different parcels of water move in and out of the survey area by tidal and estuarine advection and turbulent mixing (Lee and McAlice 1979). In this study, our goal was to separate these two signals using a 4-year time series of C. quinquecirrha medusa counts from a fixed-station in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay. Idealized modeling of tidal and estuarine advection was used to conceptualize the sampling scheme. Change point and time series analysis was used to detect demographic changes. Indices of aggregation (Negative Binomial coefficient, Taylor's Power Law coefficient, and Morisita's Index) were calculated to describe the spatial patchiness of the medusae. Abundance estimates revealed a bloom cycle that differed in duration and magnitude for each of the study years. Indices of aggregation indicated that medusae were aggregated and that patches grew in the number of individuals, and likely in size, as abundance increased. Further inference from the conceptual modeling suggested that medusae patch structure was generally homogenous over the tidal extent. This study highlights the benefits of using fixed-station shore-based surveys for understanding the biology and ecology of jellyfish.

Studies of movement of sediments in Santos bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandeira, J.V.; Aun, P.E.; Bomtempo, V.L.; Salim, L.H.; Minardi, P.S.P.; Santos, J.A.

1990-01-01

In the years of 1973, 74, 80, 81 and 85 several studies were performed at Santos bay, using radioactive tracers, with the following main objectives: to evaluate the behaviour (on the bottom and in suspension) of the mixture of silt and clay which is dredged from the estuary and from its access channel and dumped at pre-determined sites, in the bay and surrounding regions, with the objective of optimizing dredging disposal operations; to quantify the movement of sandy sediments on the bottom, in 3 areas of the bay, in summer and winter conditions, to obtain pertinent information related to the siltation of the access channel. As results of these studies, it was found that: the ancient dumping site, near Itaipu Point, in the western limit of the bay, was inadequate, since the material could return to the bay and to the estuary. The dumping site was moved to a region at the south of Moela Island, located eastwards relative to the bay, which brought substantial economies in dredging works; the bottom sediment transport was quantified, following clouds of tagged materials for about 8 months, thus obtaining important conclusions about transport rates in different regions of the bay. An analysis of the intervening hydrodynamic agents is also presented. (author) (L.J.C.)

Integrating science and resource management in Tampa Bay, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Kimberly K.; Greening, Holly; Morrison, Gerold

2011-01-01

Tampa Bay is recognized internationally for its remarkable progress towards recovery since it was pronounced "dead" in the late 1970s. Due to significant efforts by local governments, industries and private citizens throughout the watershed, water clarity in Tampa Bay is now equal to what it was in 1950, when population in the watershed was less than one-quarter of what it is today. Seagrass extent has increased by more than 8,000 acres since the mid-1980s, and fish and wildlife populations are increasing. Central to this successful turn-around has been the Tampa Bay resource management community's long-term commitment to development and implementation of strong science-based management strategies. Research institutions and agencies, including Eckerd College, the Florida Wildlife Commission Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Mote Marine Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Southwest Florida Water Management District, University of South Florida, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, local and State governments, and private companies contribute significantly to the scientific basis of our understanding of Tampa Bay's structure and ecological function. Resource management agencies, including the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council's Agency on Bay Management, the Southwest Florida Water Management District's Surface Water Improvement and Management Program, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program, depend upon this scientific basis to develop and implement regional adaptive management programs. The importance of integrating science with management has become fully recognized by scientists and managers throughout the region, State and Nation. Scientific studies conducted in Tampa Bay over the past 10–15 years are increasingly diverse and complex, and resource management programs reflect our increased knowledge of geology, hydrology and hydrodynamics, ecology and restoration techniques. However, a synthesis of this

Statistical Significance for Hierarchical Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Kimes, Patrick K.; Liu, Yufeng; Hayes, D. Neil; Marron, J. S.

2017-01-01

Summary Cluster analysis has proved to be an invaluable tool for the exploratory and unsupervised analysis of high dimensional datasets. Among methods for clustering, hierarchical approaches have enjoyed substantial popularity in genomics and other fields for their ability to simultaneously uncover multiple layers of clustering structure. A critical and challenging question in cluster analysis is whether the identified clusters represent important underlying structure or are artifacts of natural sampling variation. Few approaches have been proposed for addressing this problem in the context of hierarchical clustering, for which the problem is further complicated by the natural tree structure of the partition, and the multiplicity of tests required to parse the layers of nested clusters. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo based approach for testing statistical significance in hierarchical clustering which addresses these issues. The approach is implemented as a sequential testing procedure guaranteeing control of the family-wise error rate. Theoretical justification is provided for our approach, and its power to detect true clustering structure is illustrated through several simulation studies and applications to two cancer gene expression datasets. PMID:28099990

Whose Bay Street? Competing Narratives of Nassau's City Centre

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nona Patara Martin

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Bay Street has always been at the centre of commercial, cultural and political life in the Bahama Islands. It also acts as a gateway for millions of tourists who come to Nassau, the Bahamian capital, via cruise ships every year. Not surprisingly, Bahamians and non-Bahamians have widely divergent impressions of Bay Street. The need to accommodate the tourists who are critical to the Bahamian economy has meant that Bay Street, despite its deep social significance for Bahamians, has increasingly become a tourist space. With reference to the ‘sense of place’ and place attachment literature, this paper traces the transformation of Bay Street and attempts to tease out the most obvious tensions between the Bay Street that Bahamians experience and Bay Street as a port of call.

Hierarchically Nanoporous Bioactive Glasses for High Efficiency Immobilization of Enzymes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

He, W.; Min, D.D.; Zhang, X.D.

2014-01-01

Bioactive glasses with hierarchical nanoporosity and structures have been heavily involved in immobilization of enzymes. Because of meticulous design and ingenious hierarchical nanostructuration of porosities from yeast cell biotemplates, hierarchically nanostructured porous bioactive glasses can...... and products of catalytic reactions can freely diffuse through open mesopores (2–40 nm). The formation mechanism of hierarchically structured porous bioactive glasses, the immobilization mechanism of enzyme and the catalysis mechanism of immobilized enzyme are then discussed. The novel nanostructure...

Potential Relationships Between Urban Development and the Trophic Status of Tampa Bay Tributaries and Lake Thonotosassa, Further the Potential Effect on Public Health

Science.gov (United States)

MorenoMadrinan, Max J.; Allhamdan, Mohammad; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maury

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of remote sensing to monitor the relationships between the urban development and water quality in Tampa Bay and the tributaries. It examines the changes in land cover/land use (LU/LC) and the affects that this change has on the water quality of Tampa Bay, Lake Thonotosassa and the tributaries, and that shows the ways that these changes can be estimated with remote sensing.

Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Inversion Using a Multiscale Hierarchical Model

KAUST Repository

Mondal, Anirban

2014-07-03

We consider a Bayesian approach to nonlinear inverse problems in which the unknown quantity is a random field (spatial or temporal). The Bayesian approach contains a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, can incorporate information from heterogeneous sources and provide a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inverse solution. The Bayesian setting casts the inverse solution as a posterior probability distribution over the model parameters. The Karhunen-Loeve expansion is used for dimension reduction of the random field. Furthermore, we use a hierarchical Bayes model to inject multiscale data in the modeling framework. In this Bayesian framework, we show that this inverse problem is well-posed by proving that the posterior measure is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the data in total variation norm. Computational challenges in this construction arise from the need for repeated evaluations of the forward model (e.g., in the context of MCMC) and are compounded by high dimensionality of the posterior. We develop two-stage reversible jump MCMC that has the ability to screen the bad proposals in the first inexpensive stage. Numerical results are presented by analyzing simulated as well as real data from hydrocarbon reservoir. This article has supplementary material available online. © 2014 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality.

Fecal indicator bacteria at Havana Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez Perez, Lisse; Gomez D'Angelo, Yamiris; Beltran Gonzalez, Jesus; Alvarez Valiente, Reinaldo

2013-01-01

Aims: Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were evaluated in Havana Bay. Methods: Concentrations of traditional fecal indicator bacteria were calculated between April 2010 and February 2011, by MPN methods. Concentrations of thermo tolerant coliform (CTT), Escherichia coli, fecal streptococci (EF), intestinal enterococci (ENT) in seawater, and Clostridium perfringens in sediment surface, were determined. Results: CTT and E. coli levels were far above Cuban water quality standard for indirect contact with water, showing the negative influence of sewage and rivers on the bay. The EF and ENT were measured during sewage spills at the discharge site and they were suitable indicators of fecal contamination, but these indicators didn't show the same behavior in other selected sites. This result comes from its well-known inactivation by solar light in tropical zones and the presumable presence of humid acids in the waters of the bay. Conclusion: Fecal indicator bacteria and its statistical relationships reflect recent and chronic fecal contamination at the bay and near shores.

Three Ways to Link Merge with Hierarchical Concept-Combination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Thornton

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In the Minimalist Program, language competence is seen to stem from a fundamental ability to construct hierarchical structure, an operation dubbed ‘Merge’. This raises the problem of how to view hierarchical concept-combination. This is a conceptual operation which also builds hierarchical structure. We can conceive of a garden that consists of a lawn and a flower-bed, for example, or a salad consisting of lettuce, fennel and rocket, or a crew consisting of a pilot and engineer. In such cases, concepts are put together in a way that makes one the accommodating element with respect to the others taken in combination. The accommodating element becomes the root of a hierarchical unit. Since this unit is itself a concept, the operation is inherently recursive. Does this mean the mind has two independent systems of hierarchical construction? Or is some form of integration more likely? Following a detailed examination of the operations involved, this paper shows there are three main ways in which Merge might be linked to hierarchical concept-combination. Also examined are the architectural implications that arise in each case.

Hierarchical modeling and its numerical implementation for layered thin elastic structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, Jin-Rae [Hongik University, Sejong (Korea, Republic of)

2017-05-15

Thin elastic structures such as beam- and plate-like structures and laminates are characterized by the small thickness, which lead to classical plate and laminate theories in which the displacement fields through the thickness are assumed linear or higher-order polynomials. These classical theories are either insufficient to represent the complex stress variation through the thickness or may encounter the accuracy-computational cost dilemma. In order to overcome the inherent problem of classical theories, the concept of hierarchical modeling has been emerged. In the hierarchical modeling, the hierarchical models with different model levels are selected and combined within a structure domain, in order to make the modeling error be distributed as uniformly as possible throughout the problem domain. The purpose of current study is to explore the potential of hierarchical modeling for the effective numerical analysis of layered structures such as laminated composite. For this goal, the hierarchical models are constructed and the hierarchical modeling is implemented by selectively adjusting the level of hierarchical models. As well, the major characteristics of hierarchical models are investigated through the numerical experiments.

Heme oxygenase-1 mediates BAY 11-7085 induced ferroptosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Ling-Chu; Chiang, Shih-Kai; Chen, Shuen-Ei; Yu, Yung-Luen; Chou, Ruey-Hwang; Chang, Wei-Chao

2018-03-01

Ferroptosis is a form of oxidative cell death and has become a chemotherapeutic target for cancer treatment. BAY 11-7085 (BAY), which is a well-known IκBα inhibitor, suppressed viability in cancer cells via induction of ferroptotic death in an NF-κB-independent manner. Reactive oxygen species scavenging, relief of lipid peroxidation, replenishment of glutathione and thiol-containing agents, as well as iron chelation, rescued BAY-induced cell death. BAY upregulated a variety of Nrf2 target genes related to redox regulation, particularly heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). Studies with specific inhibitors and shRNA interventions suggested that the hierarchy of induction is Nrf2-SLC7A11-HO-1. SLC7A11 inhibition by erastin, sulfasalazine, or shRNA interference sensitizes BAY-induced cell death. Overexperession of SLC7A11 attenuated BAY-inhibited cell viability. The ferroptotic process induced by hHO-1 overexpression further indicated that HO-1 is a key mediator of BAY-induced ferroptosis that operates through cellular redox regulation and iron accumulation. BAY causes compartmentalization of HO-1 into the nucleus and mitochondrion, and followed mitochondrial dysfunctions, leading to lysosome targeting for mitophagy. In this study, we first discovered that BAY induced ferroptosis via Nrf2-SLC7A11-HO-1 pathway and HO-1 is a key mediator by responding to the cellular redox status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changing Salinity Patterns in Biscayne Bay, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

,

2004-01-01

Biscayne Bay, Fla., is a 428-square-mile (1,109-square-kilometer) subtropical estuarine ecosystem that includes Biscayne National Park, the largest marine park in the U.S. national park system (fig. 1). The bay began forming between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago as sea level rose and southern Florida was flooded. Throughout most of its history, the pristine waters of the bay supported abundant and diverse fauna and flora, and the bay was a nursery for the adjacent coral-reef and marine ecosystems. In the 20th century, urbanization of the Miami-Dade County area profoundly affected the environment of the bay. Construction of powerplants, water-treatment plants, and solid-waste sites and large-scale development along the shoreline stressed the ecosystem. Biscayne National Monument was established in 1968 to ?preserve and protect for the education, inspiration, recreation and enjoyment of present and future generations a rare combination of terrestrial, marine, and amphibious life in a tropical setting of great natural beauty? (Public Law 90?606). The monument was enlarged in 1980 and designated a national park.

Incident wave run-up into narrow sloping bays and estuaries

Science.gov (United States)

Sinan Özeren, M.; Postacioglu, Nazmi; Canlı, Umut

2015-04-01

The problem is investigated using Carrier Greenspan hodograph transformations.We perform a quasi-one-dimensional solution well into the bay, far enough of the mouth of the bay. The linearized boundary conditions at the mouth of the bay lead to an integral equation for 2-D geometry. A semi analytical optimization method has been developed to solve this integral equation. When the wavelength of the incident wave is much larger than the width of the bay, the conformalmapping of the bay and the semi infinite sea onto upper complex plane provides a solution of the integral equation in closed form. Particular emphasis is placed on the case where the frequency of the incident waves matches the real-part of the natural frequency of the oscillation of the bay. These natural frequencies are complex because of the radiation conditions imposed at the mouth of the bay. It is found that the complex part of these natural frequencies decreases with decreasing width of the bay. Thus the trapping of the waves in narrower bays leads to a strong resonance phenomenon when the frequency of the incident wave is equal to the real part of the natural frequency.

Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, J W; Lynch, J A

2005-06-01

Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.

HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

2015-01-01

Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

Hierarchical surfaces for enhanced self-cleaning applications

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, Ariadna; Francone, Achille; Thamdrup, Lasse H.; Johansson, Alicia; Bilenberg, Brian; Nielsen, Theodor; Guttmann, Markus; Sotomayor Torres, Clivia M.; Kehagias, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

In this study we present a flexible and adaptable fabrication method to create complex hierarchical structures over inherently hydrophobic resist materials. We have tested these surfaces for their superhydrophobic behaviour and successfully verified their self-cleaning properties. The followed approach allow us to design and produce superhydrophobic surfaces in a reproducible manner. We have analysed different combination of hierarchical micro-nanostructures for their application to self-cleaning surfaces. A static contact angle value of 170° with a hysteresis of 4° was achieved without the need of any additional chemical treatment on the fabricated hierarchical structures. Dynamic effects were analysed on these surfaces, obtaining a remarkable self-cleaning effect as well as a good robustness over impacting droplets.

Elemental analysis of Uranouchi bay seabed sludge using PIXE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kabir, M. Hasnat; Narusawa, Tadashi; Nishiyama, Fumitaka; Sumi, Katsuhiro

2006-01-01

Elemental analyses were carried out for the seabed sludge collected from Uranouchi bay (Kochi, Japan) using Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE). Seabed-sludge contamination with heavy metals as well as toxic elements becomes one of the most serious environmental problems. The aim of the present study is to investigate the polluted areas in the bay by heavy and toxic elements. As a results of analyses of samples collected from eleven different places in the bay, seventeen elements including toxic ones were detected. The results suggest that the center region of the bay is seriously contaminated by heavy and toxic elements in comparison with the other areas in the bay. (author)

An empirical test of the 'shark nursery area concept' in Texas bays using a long-term fisheries-independent data set

Science.gov (United States)

Froeschke, John T.; Stunz, Gregory W.; Sterba-Boatwright, Blair; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2010-01-01

Using a long-term fisheries-independent data set, we tested the 'shark nursery area concept' proposed by Heupel et al. (2007) with the suggested working assumptions that a shark nursery habitat would: (1) have an abundance of immature sharks greater than the mean abundance across all habitats where they occur; (2) be used by sharks repeatedly through time (years); and (3) see immature sharks remaining within the habitat for extended periods of time. We tested this concept using young-of-the-year (age 0) and juvenile (age 1+ yr) bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas from gill-net surveys conducted in Texas bays from 1976 to 2006 to estimate the potential nursery function of 9 coastal bays. Of the 9 bay systems considered as potential nursery habitat, only Matagorda Bay satisfied all 3 criteria for young-of-the-year bull sharks. Both Matagorda and San Antonio Bays met the criteria for juvenile bull sharks. Through these analyses we examined the utility of this approach for characterizing nursery areas and we also describe some practical considerations, such as the influence of the temporal or spatial scales considered when applying the nursery role concept to shark populations.

Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition Loadings to the Chesapeake Bay: An Initial Analysis of the Cost Effectiveness of Control Options (1996)

Science.gov (United States)

This report examines the cost effectiveness of control options which reduce nitrate deposition to the Chesapeake watershed and to the tidal Bay. The report analyzes current estimates of the reductions expected in the ozone transport region.

South Bay Salt Pond Mercury Studies Project

Science.gov (United States)

Information about the SFBWQP South Bay Salt Pond Mercury Studies Project, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

Hierarchical Micro-Nano Coatings by Painting

Science.gov (United States)

Kirveslahti, Anna; Korhonen, Tuulia; Suvanto, Mika; Pakkanen, Tapani A.

2016-03-01

In this paper, the wettability properties of coatings with hierarchical surface structures and low surface energy were studied. Hierarchically structured coatings were produced by using hydrophobic fumed silica nanoparticles and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) microparticles as additives in polyester (PES) and polyvinyldifluoride (PVDF). These particles created hierarchical micro-nano structures on the paint surfaces and lowered or supported the already low surface energy of the paint. Two standard application techniques for paint application were employed and the presented coatings are suitable for mass production and use in large surface areas. By regulating the particle concentrations, it was possible to modify wettability properties gradually. Highly hydrophobic surfaces were achieved with the highest contact angle of 165∘. Dynamic contact angle measurements were carried out for a set of selected samples and low hysteresis was obtained. Produced coatings possessed long lasting durability in the air and in underwater conditions.

Emotional intelligence is a second-stratum factor of intelligence: evidence from hierarchical and bifactor models.

Science.gov (United States)

MacCann, Carolyn; Joseph, Dana L; Newman, Daniel A; Roberts, Richard D

2014-04-01

This article examines the status of emotional intelligence (EI) within the structure of human cognitive abilities. To evaluate whether EI is a 2nd-stratum factor of intelligence, data were fit to a series of structural models involving 3 indicators each for fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, quantitative reasoning, visual processing, and broad retrieval ability, as well as 2 indicators each for emotion perception, emotion understanding, and emotion management. Unidimensional, multidimensional, hierarchical, and bifactor solutions were estimated in a sample of 688 college and community college students. Results suggest adequate fit for 2 models: (a) an oblique 8-factor model (with 5 traditional cognitive ability factors and 3 EI factors) and (b) a hierarchical solution (with cognitive g at the highest level and EI representing a 2nd-stratum factor that loads onto g at λ = .80). The acceptable relative fit of the hierarchical model confirms the notion that EI is a group factor of cognitive ability, marking the expression of intelligence in the emotion domain. The discussion proposes a possible expansion of Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory to include EI as a 2nd-stratum factor of similar standing to factors such as fluid intelligence and visual processing.

Hierarchical virtual screening approaches in small molecule drug discovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Ashutosh; Zhang, Kam Y J

2015-01-01

Virtual screening has played a significant role in the discovery of small molecule inhibitors of therapeutic targets in last two decades. Various ligand and structure-based virtual screening approaches are employed to identify small molecule ligands for proteins of interest. These approaches are often combined in either hierarchical or parallel manner to take advantage of the strength and avoid the limitations associated with individual methods. Hierarchical combination of ligand and structure-based virtual screening approaches has received noteworthy success in numerous drug discovery campaigns. In hierarchical virtual screening, several filters using ligand and structure-based approaches are sequentially applied to reduce a large screening library to a number small enough for experimental testing. In this review, we focus on different hierarchical virtual screening strategies and their application in the discovery of small molecule modulators of important drug targets. Several virtual screening studies are discussed to demonstrate the successful application of hierarchical virtual screening in small molecule drug discovery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic influence on recent bathymetric change in west-central San Francisco Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Barnard, Patrick L.; Kvitek, Rikk G.

2010-01-01

Two multibeam sonar surveys of west-central San Francisco Bay, California, were conducted in 1997 and 2008. Bathymetric change analysis between the two surveys indicates a loss of 14.1 million cubic meters (-3.1 cm/yr-1) of sediment during this time period, representing an approximately three-fold acceleration of the rate that was observed from prior depth change analysis from 1947 to 1979 for all of Central Bay, using more spatially coarse National Ocean Service (NOS) soundings. The portions of the overlapping survey areas between 1997 and 2008 designated as aggregate mining lease sites lost sediment at five times the rate of the remainder of west-central San Francisco Bay. Despite covering only 28% of the analysis area, volume change within leasing areas accounted for 9.2 million cubic meters of sediment loss, while the rest of the area lost 4.9 million cubic meters of sediment. The uncertainty of this recent analysis is more tightly constrained due to more stringent controls on vertical and horizontal position via tightly coupled, inertially aided differential Global Positioning Systems (GPS) solutions for survey vessel trajectory that virtually eliminate inaccuracies from traditional tide modeling and vessel motion artifacts. Further, quantification of systematic depth measurement error can now be calculated through comparison of static surfaces (e.g., bedrock) between surveys using seafloor habitat maps based on acoustic backscatter measurements and ground-truthing with grab samples and underwater video. Sediment loss in the entire San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half-century,as estimated from a series of bathymetric change studies, is 240 million cubic meters, and most of this is believed to be coarse sediment (i.e., sand and gravel) from Central Bay and the San Francisco Bar, which is likely to limit the sand supply to adjacent, open-coast beaches. This hypothesis is supported by a calibrated numerical model in a related study that indicates

The Hierarchical Spectral Merger Algorithm: A New Time Series Clustering Procedure

KAUST Repository

Euán, Carolina

2018-04-12

We present a new method for time series clustering which we call the Hierarchical Spectral Merger (HSM) method. This procedure is based on the spectral theory of time series and identifies series that share similar oscillations or waveforms. The extent of similarity between a pair of time series is measured using the total variation distance between their estimated spectral densities. At each step of the algorithm, every time two clusters merge, a new spectral density is estimated using the whole information present in both clusters, which is representative of all the series in the new cluster. The method is implemented in an R package HSMClust. We present two applications of the HSM method, one to data coming from wave-height measurements in oceanography and the other to electroencefalogram (EEG) data.

A Hierarchical and Dynamic Seascape Framework for Scaling and Comparing Ocean Biodiversity Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Kavanaugh, M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Montes, E.; Santora, J. A.; Chavez, F.; Messié, M.; Doney, S. C.

2016-02-01

The pelagic ocean is a complex system in which physical, chemical and biological processes interact to shape patterns on multiple spatial and temporal scales and levels of ecological organization. Monitoring and management of marine seascapes must consider a hierarchical and dynamic mosaic, where the boundaries, extent, and location of features change with time. As part of a Marine Biodiversity Observing Network demonstration project, we conducted a multiscale classification of dynamic coastal seascapes in the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico using multivariate satellite and modeled data. Synoptic patterns were validated using mooring and ship-based observations that spanned multiple trophic levels and were collected as part of several long-term monitoring programs, including the Monterey Bay and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuaries. Seascape extent and habitat diversity varied as a function of both seasonal and interannual forcing. We discuss the patterns of in situ observations in the context of seascape dynamics and the effect on rarefaction, spatial patchiness, and tracking and comparing ecosystems through time. A seascape framework presents an effective means to translate local biodiversity measurements to broader spatiotemporal scales, scales relevant for modeling the effects of global change and enabling whole-ecosystem management in the dynamic ocean.

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE SHAPE PARAMETER OF THE GENERALISED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER DIFFERENT LOSS FUNCTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SANKU DEY

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The generalized exponential (GE distribution proposed by Gupta and Kundu (1999 is an important lifetime distribution in survival analysis. In this article, we propose to obtain Bayes estimators and its associated risk based on a class of  non-informative prior under the assumption of three loss functions, namely, quadratic loss function (QLF, squared log-error loss function (SLELF and general entropy loss function (GELF. The motivation is to explore the most appropriate loss function among these three loss functions. The performances of the estimators are, therefore, compared on the basis of their risks obtained under QLF, SLELF and GELF separately. The relative efficiency of the estimators is also obtained. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the Bayes estimates under different situations.

DEVELOP Chesapeake Bay Watershed Hydrology - UAV Sensor Web

Science.gov (United States)

Holley, S. D.; Baruah, A.

2008-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States, with a watershed extending through six states and the nation's capital. Urbanization and agriculture practices have led to an excess runoff of nutrients and sediment into the bay. Nutrients and sediment loading stimulate the growth of algal blooms associated with various problems including localized dissolved oxygen deficiencies, toxic algal blooms and death of marine life. The Chesapeake Bay Program, among other stakeholder organizations, contributes greatly to the restoration efforts of the Chesapeake Bay. These stakeholders contribute in many ways such as monitoring the water quality, leading clean-up projects, and actively restoring native habitats. The first stage of the DEVELOP Chesapeake Bay Coastal Management project, relating to water quality, contributed to the restoration efforts by introducing NASA satellite-based water quality data products to the stakeholders as a complement to their current monitoring methods. The second stage, to be initiated in the fall 2008 internship term, will focus on the impacts of land cover variability within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Multiple student led discussions with members of the Land Cover team at the Chesapeake Bay Program Office in the DEVELOP GSFC 2008 summer term uncovered the need for remote sensing data for hydrological mapping in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay Program expressed in repeated discussions on Land Cover mapping that significant portions of upper river areas, streams, and the land directly interfacing those waters are not accurately depicted in the watershed model. Without such hydrological mapping correlated with land cover data the model will not be useful in depicting source areas of nutrient loading which has an ecological and economic impact in and around the Chesapeake Bay. The fall 2008 DEVELOP team will examine the use of UAV flown sensors in connection with in-situ and Earth Observation satellite data. To maximize the

Long time-series of turbid coastal water using AVHRR: an example from Florida Bay, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Stumpf, Richard P.; Frayer, M. L.

1997-02-01

The AVHRR can provide information on the reflectance of turbid case II water, permitting examination of large estuaries and plumes from major rivers. The AVHRR has been onboard several NOAA satellites, with afternoon overpasses since 1981, offering a long time-series to examine changes in coastal water. We are using AVHRR data starting in December 1989, to examine water clarity in Florida Bay, which has undergone a decline since the late 1980's. The processing involves obtaining a nominal reflectance for red light with standard corrections including those for Rayleigh and aerosol path radiances. Established relationships between reflectance and the water properties being measured in the Bay provide estimates of diffuse attenuation and light limitation for phytoplankton and seagrass productivity studies. Processing also includes monthly averages of reflectance and attenuation. The AVHRR data set describes spatial and temporal patterns, including resuspension of bottom sediments in the winter, and changes in water clarity. The AVHRR also indicates that Florida Bay has much higher reflectivity relative to attenuation than other southeastern US estuaries.

Humboldt Bay, California Benthic Habitats 2009 Geoform

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

Humboldt Bay, California Benthic Habitats 2009 Substrate

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

Humboldt Bay Benthic Habitats 2009 Aquatic Setting

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

Humboldt Bay, California Benthic Habitats 2009 Geodatabase

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

Distribution of uranium at Mumbai Harbour Bay (MHB)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugandhi, S.; Prabhu, S.P.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Hegde, A.G.

2010-01-01

Mumbai Harbour Bay (MHB) is a recipient of low level treated effluents from BARC, Trombay. In addition, the Bay is also a recipient of domestic and industrial wastes from the city of Mumbai and adjoining areas. Uranium though considered as a rare element, occurs in seawater. The present study is dealt with the distribution of uranium in seawater of Mumbai Harbour Bay (MHB). Uranium is mainly present as Tricarbanato uranyl anion ((UO 2 (CO 3 ) 3 ) 4- ) in seawater and its concentration varies with the locality and depth. The average value of uranium concentration reported for Indian Bay water at Tarapur and Mumbai is ∼ 3.0 ppb which is comparable with the reported value for Arabian sea. As such the global average is reported to be ∼ 3.3 ppb by Oceanologists. A total of 18 seawater samples covering the upstream, downstream and middle stream of MHB were collected and filtered through 0.22 μm filter paper. 10 L of filtered sample was subjected to chemical separation using ion-exchange technique which involved the following steps: the filtered samples were acidified with conc. HNO 3 and digested. Ca 3 (PO 4 ) 2 was precipitated at pH 8-9 by addition of liquid ammonia which coprecipitates uranium. The precipitate was allowed to settle overnight, supernatant discarded; precipitate was washed thoroughly with distilled water twice, dissolved in electronic grade conc. HNO 3 and evaporated to dryness. Residue formed was heated with electronic grade conc. HCI and taken up in 8M HCI and loaded on to Dowex 1x8 (Cl -1 for, 1.5 g, 100-200 mesh, anion exchanger), preconditioned with 8M HCI. Uranium adsorbed on the resin was eluted with 1 M HNO 3 . The eluant was evaporated to dryness and electrodeposited on a stainless steel planchette and the uranium content was estimated by alpha spectrometry (PIPS, Type IPC). The uranium activity in MHB by alpha spectrometry was found to be between 1.0-4.4 ppb with an average concentration of 2.5 ppb which is comparable with the earlier

Contaminant transport in Massachusetts Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Butman, Bradford

Construction of a new treatment plant and outfall to clean up Boston Harbor is currently one of the world's largest public works projects, costing about $4 billion. There is concern about the long-term impact of contaminants on Massachusetts Bay and adjacent Gulf of Maine because these areas are used extensively for transportation, recreation, fishing, and tourism, as well as waste disposal. Public concern also focuses on Stellwagen Bank, located on the eastern side of Massachusetts Bay, which is an important habitat for endangered whales. Contaminants reach Massachusetts Bay not only from Boston Harbor, but from other coastal communities on the Gulf of Maine, as well as from the atmosphere. Knowledge of the pathways, mechanisms, and rates at which pollutants are transported throughout these coastal environments is needed to address a wide range of management questions.

Bayes linear statistics, theory & methods

CERN Document Server

Goldstein, Michael

2007-01-01

Bayesian methods combine information available from data with any prior information available from expert knowledge. The Bayes linear approach follows this path, offering a quantitative structure for expressing beliefs, and systematic methods for adjusting these beliefs, given observational data. The methodology differs from the full Bayesian methodology in that it establishes simpler approaches to belief specification and analysis based around expectation judgements. Bayes Linear Statistics presents an authoritative account of this approach, explaining the foundations, theory, methodology, and practicalities of this important field. The text provides a thorough coverage of Bayes linear analysis, from the development of the basic language to the collection of algebraic results needed for efficient implementation, with detailed practical examples. The book covers:The importance of partial prior specifications for complex problems where it is difficult to supply a meaningful full prior probability specification...

Introduction into Hierarchical Matrices

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2013-01-01

Hierarchical matrices allow us to reduce computational storage and cost from cubic to almost linear. This technique can be applied for solving PDEs, integral equations, matrix equations and approximation of large covariance and precision matrices.

Introduction into Hierarchical Matrices

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2013-12-05

Hierarchical matrices allow us to reduce computational storage and cost from cubic to almost linear. This technique can be applied for solving PDEs, integral equations, matrix equations and approximation of large covariance and precision matrices.

Incorporating Functional Genomic Information in Genetic Association Studies Using an Empirical Bayes Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, Amy V; Cox, Angela; Lin, Wei-Yu; Easton, Douglas F; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Walters, Kevin

2016-04-01

There is a large amount of functional genetic data available, which can be used to inform fine-mapping association studies (in diseases with well-characterised disease pathways). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) prioritization via Bayes factors is attractive because prior information can inform the effect size or the prior probability of causal association. This approach requires the specification of the effect size. If the information needed to estimate a priori the probability density for the effect sizes for causal SNPs in a genomic region isn't consistent or isn't available, then specifying a prior variance for the effect sizes is challenging. We propose both an empirical method to estimate this prior variance, and a coherent approach to using SNP-level functional data, to inform the prior probability of causal association. Through simulation we show that when ranking SNPs by our empirical Bayes factor in a fine-mapping study, the causal SNP rank is generally as high or higher than the rank using Bayes factors with other plausible values of the prior variance. Importantly, we also show that assigning SNP-specific prior probabilities of association based on expert prior functional knowledge of the disease mechanism can lead to improved causal SNPs ranks compared to ranking with identical prior probabilities of association. We demonstrate the use of our methods by applying the methods to the fine mapping of the CASP8 region of chromosome 2 using genotype data from the Collaborative Oncological Gene-Environment Study (COGS) Consortium. The data we analysed included approximately 46,000 breast cancer case and 43,000 healthy control samples. © 2016 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Hierarchical surfaces for enhanced self-cleaning applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernández, Ariadna; Francone, Achille; Sotomayor Torres, Clivia M; Kehagias, Nikolaos; Thamdrup, Lasse H; Johansson, Alicia; Bilenberg, Brian; Nielsen, Theodor; Guttmann, Markus

2017-01-01

In this study we present a flexible and adaptable fabrication method to create complex hierarchical structures over inherently hydrophobic resist materials. We have tested these surfaces for their superhydrophobic behaviour and successfully verified their self-cleaning properties. The followed approach allow us to design and produce superhydrophobic surfaces in a reproducible manner. We have analysed different combination of hierarchical micro-nanostructures for their application to self-cleaning surfaces. A static contact angle value of 170° with a hysteresis of 4° was achieved without the need of any additional chemical treatment on the fabricated hierarchical structures. Dynamic effects were analysed on these surfaces, obtaining a remarkable self-cleaning effect as well as a good robustness over impacting droplets. (paper)

Factors affecting spatial and temporal variability in material exchange between the Southern Everglades wetlands and Florida Bay (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Sutula, Martha A.; Perez, Brian C.; Reyes, Enrique; Childers, Daniel L.; Davis, Steve; Day, John W.; Rudnick, David; Sklar, Fred

2003-08-01

Physical and biological processes controlling spatial and temporal variations in material concentration and exchange between the Southern Everglades wetlands and Florida Bay were studied for 2.5 years in three of the five major creek systems draining the watershed. Daily total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) fluxes were measured for 2 years in Taylor River, and ten 10-day intensive studies were conducted in this creek to estimate the seasonal flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), total organic carbon (TOC), and suspended matter. Four 10-day studies were conducted simultaneously in Taylor, McCormick, and Trout Creeks to study the spatial variation in concentration and flux. The annual fluxes of TOC, TN, and TP from the Southern Everglades were estimated from regression equations. The Southern Everglades watershed, a 460-km 2 area that includes Taylor Slough and the area south of the C-111 canal, exported 7.1 g C m -2, 0.46 g N m -2, and 0.007 g P m -2, annually. Everglades P flux is three to four orders of magnitude lower than published flux estimates from wetlands influenced by terrigenous sedimentary inputs. These low P flux values reflect both the inherently low P content of Everglades surface water and the efficiency of Everglades carbonate sediments and biota in conserving and recycling this limiting nutrient. The seasonal variation of freshwater input to the watershed was responsible for major temporal variations in N, P, and C export to Florida Bay; approximately 99% of the export occurred during the rainy season. Wind-driven forcing was most important during the later stages of the dry season when low freshwater head coincided with southerly winds, resulting in a net import of water and materials into the wetlands. We also observed an east to west decrease in TN:TP ratio from 212:1 to 127:1. Major spatial gradients in N:P ratios and nutrient concentration and flux among the creek were consistent with the westward decrease in

Mex Bay

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

2015-02-23

Feb 23, 2015 ... surveys to assess the vulnerability of the most important physical and eutrophication parameters along. El- Mex Bay coast. As a result of increasing population and industrial development, poorly untreated industrial waste, domestic sewage, shipping industry and agricultural runoff are being released to the.

Hierarchical processing in the prefrontal cortex in a variety of cognitive domains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon-Ae eJeon

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This review scrutinizes several findings on human hierarchical processing within the prefrontal cortex (PFC in diverse cognitive domains. Converging evidence from previous studies has shown that the PFC, specifically Brodmann area (BA 44, may function as the essential region for hierarchical processing across the domains. In language fMRI studies, BA 44 was significantly activated for the hierarchical processing of center-embedded sentences and this pattern of activations was also observed in artificial grammar. The same pattern was observed in the visuo-spatial domain where BA44 was actively involved in the processing of hierarchy for the visual symbol. Musical syntax, which is the rule-based arrangement of musical sets, has also been construed as hierarchical processing as in the language domain such that the activation in BA44 was observed in a chord sequence paradigm. P600 ERP was also engendered during the processing of musical hierarchy. Along with a longstanding idea that a human’s number faculty is developed as a by-product of language faculty, BA44 was closely involved in hierarchical processing in mental arithmetic. This review extended its discussion of hierarchical processing to hierarchical behavior, that is, human action which has been referred to as being hierarchically composed. Several lesion and TMS studies supported the involvement of BA44 for hierarchical processing in the action domain. Lastly, the hierarchical organization of cognitive controls was discussed within the PFC, forming a cascade of top-down hierarchical processes operating along a posterior-to-anterior axis of the lateral PFC including BA44 within the network. It is proposed that PFC is actively involved in different forms of hierarchical processing and specifically BA44 may play an integral role in the process. Taking levels of proficiency and subcortical areas into consideration may provide further insight into the functional role of BA44 for hierarchical

The Optimal Confidence Intervals for Agricultural Products’ Price Forecasts Based on Hierarchical Historical Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Wang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available With the levels of confidence and system complexity, interval forecasts and entropy analysis can deliver more information than point forecasts. In this paper, we take receivers’ demands as our starting point, use the trade-off model between accuracy and informativeness as the criterion to construct the optimal confidence interval, derive the theoretical formula of the optimal confidence interval and propose a practical and efficient algorithm based on entropy theory and complexity theory. In order to improve the estimation precision of the error distribution, the point prediction errors are STRATIFIED according to prices and the complexity of the system; the corresponding prediction error samples are obtained by the prices stratification; and the error distributions are estimated by the kernel function method and the stability of the system. In a stable and orderly environment for price forecasting, we obtain point prediction error samples by the weighted local region and RBF (Radial basis function neural network methods, forecast the intervals of the soybean meal and non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism soybean continuous futures closing prices and implement unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage tests for the simulation results. The empirical results are compared from various interval evaluation indicators, different levels of noise, several target confidence levels and different point prediction methods. The analysis shows that the optimal interval construction method is better than the equal probability method and the shortest interval method and has good anti-noise ability with the reduction of system entropy; the hierarchical estimation error method can obtain higher accuracy and better interval estimation than the non-hierarchical method in a stable system.

Historical sediment budget and present-day catchment-shoreline coupling at Twofold Bay, southeastern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, T.; Oliver, T.; Hudson, J.; Woodroffe, C. D.

2017-12-01

Considering projected impacts of sea-level rise in the 21st century on sandy shorelines, an understanding of long-term sediment budget for individual beaches or coastal compartments supports assessments of shoreline stability. We examined a low-lying coastal beach-ridge barrier in Twofold Bay using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating , airborne LiDAR, sedimentological analysis and seismic data to assess changes in rates of sediment supply to this shoreline through time. Calculations of barrier volume, Twofold Bay bay-floor sediment volume and estimates of sediment delivery from a proximal river system provide a broad-scale assessment of past-sediment budget. Between ca. 7500 years ago and 1500 years ago, sources of sediment for shoreline progradation at Boydtown were bay-floor sediments either inherited or moved into the embayment during late-stage transgression. Progradation rate between ca. 7500-1500 years ago was 0.16 m/yr with subaerial barrier volume accumulating at 0.46 m3/m/yr. Between ca. 1500 years and present day, the Towamba River to the south has delivered additional sediment to the Boydtown shoreline more than doubling shoreline progradation rate to 0.65 m/yr and subaerial barrier accumulation has risen to 1.83 m3/m/yr. The delivery of fluvial sediment from the Towamba River was restricted to the past ca. 1500 years as prior to this, estuary infilling prevented floods delivering sediments to the bay. This recent historical coupling of river sand supply and shoreline progradation rate implies that anthropogenic modifications to the Towamba River catchment such as river damming, or climatic changes reducing rainfall or runoff, would negatively impact the Boydtown Beach shoreline. Conversely increased rainfall or deforestation may increase sediment discharge due to upstream erosion. The Boydtown shoreline within Twofold Bay may be able to maintain its current position in the coming century if fluvial sediment delivery continues. The fact that

San Francisco Bay Water Quality Improvement Fund

Science.gov (United States)

EPAs grant program to protect and restore San Francisco Bay. The San Francisco Bay Water Quality Improvement Fund (SFBWQIF) has invested in 58 projects along with 70 partners contributing to restore wetlands, water quality, and reduce polluted runoff.,

PEMANFATAN TEOREMA BAYES DALAM PENENTUAN PENYAKIT THT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sri Winiarti

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Dalam konsep pelacakan dalam mencari solusi dengan pendekatan artificial inteligent, ada berbagai metode yang dapat diterapkan untuk mengatasi masalah ketidakpastian saat proses pelacakan terjadi. Salah satunya adalah teorema bayes. Adanya ketidakpastian pada proses pelacakan dapat terjadi karena adanya perubahan pengetahuan yang ada di dalam sistem. Untuk itu diperlukan adanya suatu metode untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut. Dalam penelitian ini telah diterapkan suatu metode untuk mengatasi ketidakpastian dengan teorema Bayes pada kasus pelacakan untuk mendiagnosa penyakit pada THT (Telinga,Hidung dan Tenggorokan. Subjek pada penelitian ini adalah proses pelacakan untuk menentukan penyakit THT dengan model penalaran forward chaining dan metode kepastiannya menggunakan teorema bayes dengan cara menghitung nilai probabilitas suatu penyakit dan membandingkan probabilitas setiap gejalanya. Model pengembangan perangkat lunak yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Waterfall. Metode Waterfall diawali dengan analisis data, perancangan sistem, pengkodean menggunakan Visual Basic 6.0, pengujian sistem dengan black box test dan alfa test. Dari penelitian yang dilakukan menghasilkan sebuah perangkat lunak yaitu yang mampu menentukan penyakit pada THT dengan menerapkan metode bayes untuk mengatasi ketidakpastian. Hasil uji coba sistem menujukkan bahwa aplikasi ini layak dan dapat digunakan. Kata kunci : Penyakit, THT, Teorema Bayes.

Spatial analysis of 4,5-dichloro-2-n-octyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one (Sea-Nine 211) concentrations and probabilistic risk to marine organisms in Hiroshima Bay, Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mochida, Kazuhiko; Hano, Takeshi; Onduka, Toshimitsu; Ichihashi, Hideki; Amano, Haruna; Ito, Mana; Ito, Katsutoshi; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Fujii, Kazunori

2015-01-01

We analyzed the spatial distribution of an antifouling biocide, 4,5-dichloro-2-n-octyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one (Sea-Nine 211) in the surface water and sediments of Hiroshima Bay, Japan to determine the extent of contamination by this biocide. A quantitative estimate of the environmental concentration distribution (ECD) and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for marine organisms were derived by using a Bayesian statistical model to carry out a probabilistic ecological risk analysis, such as calculation of the expected potentially affected fraction (EPAF). The spatial distribution analysis supported the notion that Sea-Nine 211 is used mainly for treatment of ship hulls in Japan. The calculated EPAF suggests that approximately up to a maximum of 0.45% of marine species are influenced by the toxicity of Sea-Nine 211 in Hiroshima Bay. In addition, estimation of the ecological risk with a conventional risk quotient method indicated that the risk was a cause for concern in Hiroshima Bay. - Highlights: • Spatial distribution analysis exhibits the dynamics of Sea-Nine 211 in Hiroshima Bay. • Probabilistic ecological risk of the biocide was estimated with a Bayesian approach. • Approximately up to 0.45% of marine species were possibly influenced by the toxicity. • The risk analysis concludes that Sea-Nine 211 should be a priority for further work. - Spatial distribution of an antifouling biocide and quantification of its ecological risk were elucidated

WAYS HIERARCHY OF ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

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ŞERBAN CLAUDIU VALENTIN

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Based on one hand on the premise that the estimate is an approximate evaluation, completed with the fact that the term estimate is increasingly common and used by a variety of both theoretical and practical areas, particularly in situations where we can not decide ourselves with certainty, it must be said that, in fact, we are dealing with estimates and in our case with an accounting estimate. Completing on the other hand the idea above with the phrase "estimated value", which implies that we are dealing with a value obtained from an evaluation process, but its size is not exact but approximated, meaning is close to the actual size, it becomes obvious the neccessity to delimit the hierarchical relationship between evaluation / estimate while considering the context in which the evaluation activity is derulated at entity level.

Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

2018-02-01

We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular

Photo-electrochemical properties of graphene wrapped hierarchically branched nanostructures obtained through hydrothermally transformed TiO2 nanotubes

Science.gov (United States)

Rambabu, Y.; Jaiswal, Manu; Roy, Somnath C.

2017-10-01

Hierarchically structured nanomaterials play an important role in both light absorption and separation of photo-generated charges. In the present study, hierarchically branched TiO2 nanostructures (HB-MLNTs) are obtained through hydrothermal transformation of electrochemically anodized TiO2 multi-leg nanotubes (MLNT) arrays. Photo-anodes based on HB-MLNTs demonstrated 5 fold increase in applied bias to photo-conversion efficiency (%ABPE) over that of TiO2 MLNTs without branches. Further, such nanostructures are wrapped with reduced graphene oxide (rGO) films to enhance the charge separation, which resulted in ∼6.5 times enhancement in %ABPE over that of bare MLNTs. We estimated charge transport (η tr) and charge transfer (η ct) efficiencies by analyzing the photo-current data. The ultra-fine nano branches grown on the MLNTs are effective in increasing light absorption through multiple scattering and improving charge transport/transfer efficiencies by enlarging semiconductor/electrolyte interface area. The charge transfer resistance, interfacial capacitance and electron decay time have been estimated through electrochemical impedance measurements which correlate with the results obtained from photocurrent measurements.

Albedo distribution in Lutzow-Holm Bay and its neighborhood

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Kiyotaka Nakagawa

1997-03-01

Full Text Available A method has been developed for estimating the filtered narrow band surface albedo with NOAA/AVHRR data, and has been applied to analysis of the surface albedo distribution in Lutzow-Holm Bay and its neighborhood, Antarctica, in 1990. As a result, 16 maps of the surface albedo distribution have been drawn. From a comparison of the albedos inferred from satellite data with those actually observed in Ongul Strait, it is clear that the satellite-inferred, filtered narrow band albedos agree well with the daily means of ground-observed, unfiltered broad band albedo, despite systematic errors of about -4%. It is also clear that there is a characteristic pattern of surface albedo distribution in this area; the open sea has very low albedo of less than 5%, whereas most of the compact pack ice and fast ice has a high albedo of more than 60%. The albedo is lower in the eastern part of Lutzow-Holm Bay than in the western part; especially off the Soya Coast it is less than 40%. The ice sheet of Antarctica has a remarkably high albedo of more than 80%.

Late Holocene evolution of the Northeast intertidal region of Sepetiba Bay, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil

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Anita Fernandes Souza Pinto

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This work is based on the study of the core T1 collected in the Guaratiba Mangrove, located on the northeastern margin of Sepetiba Bay. Few studies dealing with the application of benthic foraminifera to study sea level changes during the Holocene have been conducted in Sepetiba Bay, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In order to fill this gap, the core T1 was studied using textural, geochemical (carbonate, total organic carbon, total sulfur and stable isotopes evaluated in Ammonia tepida and microfaunal (benthic foraminifera data, unveiling paleoecological relationships of these organisms and the evolutionary scenario of Guaratiba Mangrove. Radiocarbon results indicate an estimated age of about 2400 yrs cal BP for the core base. Textural, geochemical and benthic foraminifera data suggest that the study area changed significantly during the last 2400 yrs cal BP. It experienced coastal waves action and shoreface processes in the period between ≈2.400-1.400 yrs cal BP; then, this phase gave place to a shallow marine environment similar to that found currently in internal and protected areas of Sepetiba Bay, between ≈1.400-350 yrs cal BP. Thenceforth, the study area evolved to the present mangrove environment. Factors related to climatic oscillations and the formation, evolution and events of rupture of Marambaia sand ridge influenced the late Holocene evolution of the northeast intertidal area of Sepetiba Bay.

Optical investigations of CDOM-rich coastal waters in Pärnu Bay

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Birgot Paavel

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Pärnu Bay in the Eastern Baltic Sea was chosen for studying the spatial-temporal variability of water parameters as an optically complex and semi-enclosed coastal area. The water properties of Pärnu Bay are influenced by the town of Pärnu with its 70 000 inhabitants and by the high inflow from the Pärnu River. The in situ database was collected during the ice-free period of 2006–2007 (11 sampling stations, 10 series of field trips. According to the results, the main factor influencing the light attenuation in the water was coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM which overshadows the relationships between the radiation characteristics and organic/inorganic particles. In April and May, when the freshwater discharge of the Pärnu River was highest, the values of aCDOM(380 were between 4.6 and 31.8 m–1, while in September they varied only within 2.52–10.2 m–1. The concentrations of chlorophyll a (including its metabolite phaeophytin a generally ranged from 4 to 12 mg m–3 but during algal blooms they rapidly increased to 31.8 mg m–3. The temporal and spatial irregularity of suspended matter concentrations was caused by the loading of unpacked peat at the Pärnu River mouth as well as by undulation and ship traffic in Pärnu Bay. MODIS level 1 data with 250 m resolution were used for illustrative comparison of spatial and temporal variations in the water properties in Pärnu Bay and the Gulf of Riga. An attempt to perform the quantitative analysis with the purpose of estimating the concentrations of different optically significant substances separately gave statistically incorrect results.

Multiple-Trait Genomic Selection Methods Increase Genetic Value Prediction Accuracy

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Yi; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2012-01-01

Genetic correlations between quantitative traits measured in many breeding programs are pervasive. These correlations indicate that measurements of one trait carry information on other traits. Current single-trait (univariate) genomic selection does not take advantage of this information. Multivariate genomic selection on multiple traits could accomplish this but has been little explored and tested in practical breeding programs. In this study, three multivariate linear models (i.e., GBLUP, BayesA, and BayesCπ) were presented and compared to univariate models using simulated and real quantitative traits controlled by different genetic architectures. We also extended BayesA with fixed hyperparameters to a full hierarchical model that estimated hyperparameters and BayesCπ to impute missing phenotypes. We found that optimal marker-effect variance priors depended on the genetic architecture of the trait so that estimating them was beneficial. We showed that the prediction accuracy for a low-heritability trait could be significantly increased by multivariate genomic selection when a correlated high-heritability trait was available. Further, multiple-trait genomic selection had higher prediction accuracy than single-trait genomic selection when phenotypes are not available on all individuals and traits. Additional factors affecting the performance of multiple-trait genomic selection were explored. PMID:23086217

Optimasi Naive Bayes Dengan Pemilihan Fitur Dan Pembobotan Gain Ratio

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I Guna Adi Socrates

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Naïve Bayes merupakan salah satu metode data mining yang umum digunakan dalam klasifikasi dokumen berbasis text. Kelebihan dari metode ini adalah algoritma yang sederhana dengan  kompleksitas  perhitungan  yang  rendah.  Akan  tetapi,  pada  metode  Naïve  Bayes terdapat kelemahan dimana sifat independensi dari fitur Naïve Bayes tidak dapat selalu diterapkan sehingga akan berpengaruh pada tingkat akurasi perhitungan. Maka dari itu, metode Naïve Bayes perlu dioptimasi dengan cara pemberian bobot mengunakan Gain Ratio. Namun, pemberian bobot pada Naïve Bayes menimbulkan permasalahan pada penghitungan probabilitas setiap    dokumen, dimana fitur  yang tidak  merepresentasikan kelas  yang diuji banyak muncul sehingga terjadi kesalahan klasifikasi. Oleh karena itu, pembobotan Naïve Bayes   masih   belum   optimal.   Paper   ini mengusulkan  optimasi  metode   Naïve   Bayes mengunakan pembobotan Gain Ratio yang ditambahkan dengan metode pemilihan fitur pada kasus klasifikasi teks. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa optimasi metode Naïve Bayes menggunakan pemilihan fitur dan pembobotan menghasilkan akurasi sebesar 94%.

Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ciortea, E. M.

2015-11-01

The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

Hierarchical effects on target detection and conflict monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Bihua; Gao, Feng; Ren, Maofang; Li, Fuhong

2016-01-01

Previous neuroimaging studies have demonstrated a hierarchical functional structure of the frontal cortices of the human brain, but the temporal course and the electrophysiological signature of the hierarchical representation remains unaddressed. In the present study, twenty-one volunteers were asked to perform a nested cue-target task, while their scalp potentials were recorded. The results showed that: (1) in comparison with the lower-level hierarchical targets, the higher-level targets elicited a larger N2 component (220–350 ms) at the frontal sites, and a smaller P3 component (350–500 ms) across the frontal and parietal sites; (2) conflict-related negativity (non-target minus target) was greater for the lower-level hierarchy than the higher-level, reflecting a more intensive process of conflict monitoring at the final step of target detection. These results imply that decision making, context updating, and conflict monitoring differ among different hierarchical levels of abstraction. PMID:27561989

Programming with Hierarchical Maps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørbæk, Peter

This report desribes the hierarchical maps used as a central data structure in the Corundum framework. We describe its most prominent features, ague for its usefulness and briefly describe some of the software prototypes implemented using the technology....

Recent results from Daya Bay

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Chua Ming-chung

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Utilizing powerful nuclear reactors as antineutrino sources, high mountains to provide ample shielding from cosmic rays in the vicinity, and functionally identical detectors with large target volume for near-far relative measurement, the Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment has achieved unprecedented precision in measuring the neutrino mixing angle θ13 and the neutrino mass squared difference |Δm2ee|. I will report the latest Daya Bay results on neutrino oscillations and light sterile neutrino search.