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Sample records for hierarchical bayes estimation

  1. Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation under a Unit Level Model with Applications in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nageena Nazir

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To studied Bayesian aspect of small area estimation using Unit level model. In this paper we proposed and evaluated new prior distribution for the ratio of variance components in unit level model rather than uniform prior. To approximate the posterior moments of small area means, Laplace approximation method is applied. This choice of prior avoids the extreme skewness, usually present in the posterior distribution of variance components. This property leads to more accurate Laplace approximation. We apply the proposed model to the analysis of horticultural data and results from the model are compared with frequestist approach and with Bayesian model of uniform prior in terms of average relative bias, average squared relative bias and average absolute bias. The numerical results obtained highlighted the superiority of using the proposed prior over the uniform prior. Thus Bayes estimators (with new prior of small area means have good frequentist properties such as MSE and ARB as compared to other traditional methods viz., Direct, Synthetic and Composite estimators.

  2. Empirical Bayes Estimation of Semi-parametric Hierarchical Mixture Models for Unbiased Characterization of Polygenic Disease Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo Nishino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS suggest that the genetic architecture of complex diseases consists of unexpectedly numerous variants with small effect sizes. However, the polygenic architectures of many diseases have not been well characterized due to lack of simple and fast methods for unbiased estimation of the underlying proportion of disease-associated variants and their effect-size distribution. Applying empirical Bayes estimation of semi-parametric hierarchical mixture models to GWAS summary statistics, we confirmed that schizophrenia was extremely polygenic [~40% of independent genome-wide SNPs are risk variants, most within odds ratio (OR = 1.03], whereas rheumatoid arthritis was less polygenic (~4 to 8% risk variants, significant portion reaching OR = 1.05 to 1.1. For rheumatoid arthritis, stratified estimations revealed that expression quantitative loci in blood explained large genetic variance, and low- and high-frequency derived alleles were prone to be risk and protective, respectively, suggesting a predominance of deleterious-risk and advantageous-protective mutations. Despite genetic correlation, effect-size distributions for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder differed across allele frequency. These analyses distinguished disease polygenic architectures and provided clues for etiological differences in complex diseases.

  3. Classification using Hierarchical Naive Bayes models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langseth, Helge; Dyhre Nielsen, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Classification problems have a long history in the machine learning literature. One of the simplest, and yet most consistently well-performing set of classifiers is the Naïve Bayes models. However, an inherent problem with these classifiers is the assumption that all attributes used to describe......, termed Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models. Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models extend the modeling flexibility of Naïve Bayes models by introducing latent variables to relax some of the independence statements in these models. We propose a simple algorithm for learning Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models...

  4. Hierarchical mixtures of naive Bayes classifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiering, M.A.

    2002-01-01

    Naive Bayes classifiers tend to perform very well on a large number of problem domains, although their representation power is quite limited compared to more sophisticated machine learning algorithms. In this pa- per we study combining multiple naive Bayes classifiers by using the hierar- chical

  5. msBayes: Pipeline for testing comparative phylogeographic histories using hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takebayashi Naoki

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although testing for simultaneous divergence (vicariance across different population-pairs that span the same barrier to gene flow is of central importance to evolutionary biology, researchers often equate the gene tree and population/species tree thereby ignoring stochastic coalescent variance in their conclusions of temporal incongruence. In contrast to other available phylogeographic software packages, msBayes is the only one that analyses data from multiple species/population pairs under a hierarchical model. Results msBayes employs approximate Bayesian computation (ABC under a hierarchical coalescent model to test for simultaneous divergence (TSD in multiple co-distributed population-pairs. Simultaneous isolation is tested by estimating three hyper-parameters that characterize the degree of variability in divergence times across co-distributed population pairs while allowing for variation in various within population-pair demographic parameters (sub-parameters that can affect the coalescent. msBayes is a software package consisting of several C and R programs that are run with a Perl "front-end". Conclusion The method reasonably distinguishes simultaneous isolation from temporal incongruence in the divergence of co-distributed population pairs, even with sparse sampling of individuals. Because the estimate step is decoupled from the simulation step, one can rapidly evaluate different ABC acceptance/rejection conditions and the choice of summary statistics. Given the complex and idiosyncratic nature of testing multi-species biogeographic hypotheses, we envision msBayes as a powerful and flexible tool for tackling a wide array of difficult research questions that use population genetic data from multiple co-distributed species. The msBayes pipeline is available for download at http://msbayes.sourceforge.net/ under an open source license (GNU Public License. The msBayes pipeline is comprised of several C and R programs that

  6. Empirical Bayes ranking and selection methods via semiparametric hierarchical mixture models in microarray studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noma, Hisashi; Matsui, Shigeyuki

    2013-05-20

    The main purpose of microarray studies is screening of differentially expressed genes as candidates for further investigation. Because of limited resources in this stage, prioritizing genes are relevant statistical tasks in microarray studies. For effective gene selections, parametric empirical Bayes methods for ranking and selection of genes with largest effect sizes have been proposed (Noma et al., 2010; Biostatistics 11: 281-289). The hierarchical mixture model incorporates the differential and non-differential components and allows information borrowing across differential genes with separation from nuisance, non-differential genes. In this article, we develop empirical Bayes ranking methods via a semiparametric hierarchical mixture model. A nonparametric prior distribution, rather than parametric prior distributions, for effect sizes is specified and estimated using the "smoothing by roughening" approach of Laird and Louis (1991; Computational statistics and data analysis 12: 27-37). We present applications to childhood and infant leukemia clinical studies with microarrays for exploring genes related to prognosis or disease progression. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xudong; Göhlich, Dietmar

    2017-01-01

    The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN) and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified "magic formula" tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method.

  8. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xudong Zhang

    Full Text Available The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified "magic formula" tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method.

  9. Hierarchical feature selection for erythema severity estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Shi, Chenbo; Shu, Chang

    2014-10-01

    At present PASI system of scoring is used for evaluating erythema severity, which can help doctors to diagnose psoriasis [1-3]. The system relies on the subjective judge of doctors, where the accuracy and stability cannot be guaranteed [4]. This paper proposes a stable and precise algorithm for erythema severity estimation. Our contributions are twofold. On one hand, in order to extract the multi-scale redness of erythema, we design the hierarchical feature. Different from traditional methods, we not only utilize the color statistical features, but also divide the detect window into small window and extract hierarchical features. Further, a feature re-ranking step is introduced, which can guarantee that extracted features are irrelevant to each other. On the other hand, an adaptive boosting classifier is applied for further feature selection. During the step of training, the classifier will seek out the most valuable feature for evaluating erythema severity, due to its strong learning ability. Experimental results demonstrate the high precision and robustness of our algorithm. The accuracy is 80.1% on the dataset which comprise 116 patients' images with various kinds of erythema. Now our system has been applied for erythema medical efficacy evaluation in Union Hosp, China.

  10. On inferring the noise in probabilistic seismic AVO inversion using hierarchical Bayes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Rasmus Bødker; Zunino, Andrea; Hansen, Thomas Mejer

    2017-01-01

    A realistic noise model is essential for trustworthy inversion of geophysical data. Sometimes, as in case of seismic data, quan- tification of the noise model is non-trivial. To remedy this, a hierarchical Bayes approach can be adopted in which proper- ties of the noise model, such as the amplitude...... of an assumed uncorrelated Gaussian noise model, can be inferred as part of the inversion. Here we demonstrate how such an approach can lead to substantial overfitting of noise when inverting a 1D re- flection seismic NMO data set. We then argue that usually the noise model is correlated, and suggest to infer...

  11. On inferring the noise in probabilistic seismic AVO inversion using hierarchical Bayes

    OpenAIRE

    Madsen, Rasmus Bødker; Zunino, Andrea; Hansen, Thomas Mejer

    2017-01-01

    A realistic noise model is essential for trustworthy inversion of geophysical data. Sometimes, as in case of seismic data, quan- tification of the noise model is non-trivial. To remedy this, a hierarchical Bayes approach can be adopted in which proper- ties of the noise model, such as the amplitude of an assumed uncorrelated Gaussian noise model, can be inferred as part of the inversion. Here we demonstrate how such an approach can lead to substantial overfitting of noise when inverting a 1D ...

  12. On Structure, Family and Parameter Estimation of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Górecki, J.; Hofert, M.; Holeňa, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 87, č. 17 (2017), s. 3261-3324 ISSN 0094-9655 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA17-01251S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : copula estimation * goodness-of-fit * Hierarchical Archimedean copula * structure determination Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.757, year: 2016

  13. New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

  14. Bayesian hierarchical model for large-scale covariance matrix estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongxiao; Hero, Alfred O

    2007-12-01

    Many bioinformatics problems implicitly depend on estimating large-scale covariance matrix. The traditional approaches tend to give rise to high variance and low accuracy due to "overfitting." We cast the large-scale covariance matrix estimation problem into the Bayesian hierarchical model framework, and introduce dependency between covariance parameters. We demonstrate the advantages of our approaches over the traditional approaches using simulations and OMICS data analysis.

  15. Saldanha Bay, South Africa II: estimating bay productivity | Pitcher ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Autotrophic communities, where organic matter is produced in excess of respiratory demand, were confined on average to the upper 5.8 m of the water column, and often excluded the bulk of the phytoplankton community, where light limitation is considered to lead to heterotrophic community metabolism. Estimates of ...

  16. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

    2013-12-01

    Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarhan, A.

    1999-01-01

    In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

  18. Summary on Bayes estimation and hypothesis testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. de Waal

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available Although Bayes’ theorem was published in 1764, it is only recently that Bayesian procedures were used in practice in statistical analyses. Many developments have taken place and are still taking place in the areas of decision theory and group decision making. Two aspects, namely that of estimation and tests of hypotheses, will be looked into. This is the area of statistical inference mainly concerned with Mathematical Statistics.

  19. Maximum Likelihood and Bayes Estimation in Randomly Censored Geometric Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hare Krishna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study the geometric distribution under randomly censored data. Maximum likelihood estimators and confidence intervals based on Fisher information matrix are derived for the unknown parameters with randomly censored data. Bayes estimators are also developed using beta priors under generalized entropy and LINEX loss functions. Also, Bayesian credible and highest posterior density (HPD credible intervals are obtained for the parameters. Expected time on test and reliability characteristics are also analyzed in this article. To compare various estimates developed in the article, a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out. Finally, for illustration purpose, a randomly censored real data set is discussed.

  20. Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotto, Lara Patricia A.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

    2015-06-01

    A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used to estimate the contribution of the population to nitrogen and phosphorus emissions which was then used in a water transport model to estimate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to Manila Bay. Seven scenarios for 2050 were tested, with varying degrees and amounts for extent of sewage treatment, and population growth rates were also included. In scenario 1, the sewage connection and treatment remains the same as 2010; in scenario 2, sewage connection is improved but the treatment is the same; in scenario 3, the sewage connection as well as treatment is improved (70% tertiary); and in scenario 4, a more realistic situation of 70% primary treatment achieved with 100% connection to pipes is tested. Scenarios 5, 6, and 7 have the same parameters as 1, 2, and 3 respectively, but with the population growth rate per province reduced to half of what was used in 1, 2, and 3. In all scenarios, a significant increase in N and P loads was observed (varying from 27% to 469% relative to 2010 values). This was found even in scenario 3 where 70% of the waste water undergoes tertiary treatment which removes 80% N and 90% P. However, the lowest increase in N and P load into the bay was achieved in scenarios 5 to 7 where population growth rate is reduced to half of 2010 values. The results suggest that aside from improving sewage treatment, the continued increase of the human population in Manila at current growth rates will be an important determinant of N and P load into Manila Bay.

  1. A Hierarchical Clustering Methodology for the Estimation of Toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) methodology based on hierarchical clustering was developed to predict toxicological endpoints. This methodology utilizes Ward's method to divide a training set into a series of structurally similar clusters. The structural sim...

  2. ASYMPTOTIC COMPARISONS OF U-STATISTICS, V-STATISTICS AND LIMITS OF BAYES ESTIMATES BY DEFICIENCIES

    OpenAIRE

    Toshifumi, Nomachi; Hajime, Yamato; Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University:Miyakonojo College of Technology; Faculty of Science, Kagoshima University

    2001-01-01

    As estimators of estimable parameters, we consider three statistics which are U-statistic, V-statistic and limit of Bayes estimate. This limit of Bayes estimate, called LB-statistic in this paper, is obtained from Bayes estimate of estimable parameter based on Dirichlet process, by letting its parameter tend to zero. For the estimable parameter with non-degenerate kernel, the asymptotic relative efficiencies of LB-statistic with respect to U-statistic and V-statistic and that of V-statistic w...

  3. A Hierarchical Linear Model for Estimating Gender-Based Earnings Differentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberfield, Yitchak; Semyonov, Moshe; Addi, Audrey

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of gender earnings inequality in data from 116,431 Jewish workers were compared using a hierarchical linear model (HLM) and ordinary least squares model. The HLM allows estimation of the extent to which earnings inequality depends on occupational characteristics. (SK)

  4. Hierarchical parameter estimation of DFIG and drive train system in a wind turbine generator

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xueping PAN; Ping JU; Feng WU; Yuqing JIN

    2017-01-01

    A new hierarchical parameter estimation method for doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) and drive train system in a wind turbine generator (WTG) is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the parameters of the DFIG and the drive train are estimated locally under different types of disturbances.Secondly,a coordination estimation method is further applied to identify the parameters of the DFIG and the drive train simultaneously with the purpose of attaining the global optimal estimation results.The main benefit of the proposed scheme is the improved estimation accuracy.Estimation results confirm the applicability of the proposed estimation technique.

  5. A pollutant load hierarchical allocation method integrated in an environmental capacity management system for Zhushan Bay, Taihu Lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Shidong; Jia, Haifeng; Yang, Cong; Melching, Charles; Yuan, Yongping

    2015-11-15

    An environmental capacity management (ECM) system was developed to help practically implement a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for a key bay in a highly eutrophic lake in China. The ECM system consists of a simulation platform for pollutant load calculation and a pollutant load hierarchical allocation (PLHA) system. The simulation platform was developed by linking the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP). In the PLHA, pollutant loads were allocated top-down in several levels based on characteristics of the pollutant sources. Different allocation methods could be used for the different levels with the advantages of each method combined over the entire allocation. Zhushan Bay of Taihu Lake, one of the most eutrophic lakes in China, was selected as a case study. The allowable loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, ammonia, and chemical oxygen demand were found to be 2122.2, 94.9, 1230.4, and 5260.0 t·yr(-1), respectively. The PLHA for the case study consists of 5 levels. At level 0, loads are allocated to those from the lakeshore direct drainage, atmospheric deposition, internal release, and tributary inflows. At level 1 the loads allocated to tributary inflows are allocated to the 3 tributaries. At level 2, the loads allocated to one inflow tributary are allocated to upstream areas and local sources along the tributary. At level 3, the loads allocated to local sources are allocated to the point and non-point sources from different towns. At level 4, the loads allocated to non-point sources in each town are allocated to different villages. Compared with traditional forms of pollutant load allocation methods, PLHA can combine the advantages of different methods which put different priority weights on equity and efficiency, and the PLHA is easy to understand for stakeholders and more flexible to adjust when applied in practical cases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Avoiding Boundary Estimates in Hierarchical Linear Models through Weakly Informative Priors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Yeojin; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Gelman, Andrew; Dorie, Vincent; Liu, Jinchen

    2012-01-01

    Hierarchical or multilevel linear models are widely used for longitudinal or cross-sectional data on students nested in classes and schools, and are particularly important for estimating treatment effects in cluster-randomized trials, multi-site trials, and meta-analyses. The models can allow for variation in treatment effects, as well as…

  7. A Hierarchical Approach to Persistent Scatterer Network Construction and Deformation Time Series Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hierarchical approach to network construction and time series estimation in persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI for deformation analysis using the time series of high-resolution satellite SAR images. To balance between computational efficiency and solution accuracy, a dividing and conquering algorithm (i.e., two levels of PS networking and solution is proposed for extracting deformation rates of a study area. The algorithm has been tested using 40 high-resolution TerraSAR-X images collected between 2009 and 2010 over Tianjin in China for subsidence analysis, and validated by using the ground-based leveling measurements. The experimental results indicate that the hierarchical approach can remarkably reduce computing time and memory requirements, and the subsidence measurements derived from the hierarchical solution are in good agreement with the leveling data.

  8. A new anisotropic mesh adaptation method based upon hierarchical a posteriori error estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Weizhang; Kamenski, Lennard; Lang, Jens

    2010-03-01

    A new anisotropic mesh adaptation strategy for finite element solution of elliptic differential equations is presented. It generates anisotropic adaptive meshes as quasi-uniform ones in some metric space, with the metric tensor being computed based on hierarchical a posteriori error estimates. A global hierarchical error estimate is employed in this study to obtain reliable directional information of the solution. Instead of solving the global error problem exactly, which is costly in general, we solve it iteratively using the symmetric Gauß-Seidel method. Numerical results show that a few GS iterations are sufficient for obtaining a reasonably good approximation to the error for use in anisotropic mesh adaptation. The new method is compared with several strategies using local error estimators or recovered Hessians. Numerical results are presented for a selection of test examples and a mathematical model for heat conduction in a thermal battery with large orthotropic jumps in the material coefficients.

  9. Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sotto, Lara Patricia A; Beusen, Arthur H W; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

    2015-01-01

    A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used

  10. HIERARCHICAL ADAPTIVE ROOD PATTERN SEARCH FOR MOTION ESTIMATION AT VIDEO SEQUENCE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. T. Nguyen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Subject of Research.The paper deals with the motion estimation algorithms for the analysis of video sequences in compression standards MPEG-4 Visual and H.264. Anew algorithm has been offered based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of existing algorithms. Method. Thealgorithm is called hierarchical adaptive rood pattern search (Hierarchical ARPS, HARPS. This new algorithm includes the classic adaptive rood pattern search ARPS and hierarchical search MP (Hierarchical search or Mean pyramid. All motion estimation algorithms have been implemented using MATLAB package and tested with several video sequences. Main Results. The criteria for evaluating the algorithms were: speed, peak signal to noise ratio, mean square error and mean absolute deviation. The proposed method showed a much better performance at a comparable error and deviation. The peak signal to noise ratio in different video sequences shows better and worse results than characteristics of known algorithms so it requires further investigation. Practical Relevance. Application of this algorithm in MPEG-4 and H.264 codecs instead of the standard can significantly reduce compression time. This feature enables to recommend it in telecommunication systems for multimedia data storing, transmission and processing.

  11. Multi-subject hierarchical inverse covariance modelling improves estimation of functional brain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colclough, Giles L; Woolrich, Mark W; Harrison, Samuel J; Rojas López, Pedro A; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A; Smith, Stephen M

    2018-05-07

    A Bayesian model for sparse, hierarchical inverse covariance estimation is presented, and applied to multi-subject functional connectivity estimation in the human brain. It enables simultaneous inference of the strength of connectivity between brain regions at both subject and population level, and is applicable to fmri, meg and eeg data. Two versions of the model can encourage sparse connectivity, either using continuous priors to suppress irrelevant connections, or using an explicit description of the network structure to estimate the connection probability between each pair of regions. A large evaluation of this model, and thirteen methods that represent the state of the art of inverse covariance modelling, is conducted using both simulated and resting-state functional imaging datasets. Our novel Bayesian approach has similar performance to the best extant alternative, Ng et al.'s Sparse Group Gaussian Graphical Model algorithm, which also is based on a hierarchical structure. Using data from the Human Connectome Project, we show that these hierarchical models are able to reduce the measurement error in meg beta-band functional networks by 10%, producing concomitant increases in estimates of the genetic influence on functional connectivity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Performance Estimation for Hardware/Software codesign using Hierarchical Colored Petri Nets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grode, Jesper Nicolai Riis; Madsen, Jan; Jerraya, Ahmed-Amine

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents an approach for abstract modeling of the functional behavior of hardware architectures using Hierarchical Colored Petri Nets (HCPNs). Using HCPNs as architectural models has several advantages such as higher estimation accuracy, higher flexibility, and the need for only one...... estimation tool. This makes the approach very useful for designing component models used for performance estimation in Hardware/Software Codesign frameworks such as the LYCOS system. The paper presents the methodology and rules for designing component models using HCPNs. Two examples of architectural models...

  13. Using the Surface Reflectance MODIS Terra Product to Estimate Turbidity in Tampa Bay, Florida

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas L. Rickman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Turbidity is a commonly-used index of the factors that determine light penetration in the water column. Consistent estimation of turbidity is crucial to design environmental and restoration management plans, to predict fate of possible pollutants, and to estimate sedimentary fluxes into the ocean. Traditional methods monitoring fixed geographical locations at fixed intervals may not be representative of the mean water turbidity in estuaries between intervals, and can be expensive and time consuming. Although remote sensing offers a good solution to this limitation, it is still not widely used due in part to required complex processing of imagery. There are satellite-derived products, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Terra surface reflectance daily product (MOD09GQ Band 1 (620–670 nm which are now routinely available at 250 m spatial resolution and corrected for atmospheric effect. This study shows this product to be useful to estimate turbidity in Tampa Bay, Florida, after rainfall events (R2 = 0.76, n = 34. Within Tampa Bay, Hillsborough Bay (HB and Old Tampa Bay (OTB presented higher turbidity compared to Middle Tampa Bay (MTB and Lower Tampa Bay (LTB.

  14. Estimating rate of occurrence of rare events with empirical bayes: A railway application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, John; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

    2007-01-01

    Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based on median estimators or non-informative prior distributions. While these alternatives offer an improvement over point estimates of zero, they can be overly conservative. Empirical Bayes procedures offer an unbiased approach through pooling data across different hazards to support stronger statistical inference. This paper considers the application of Empirical Bayes to high consequence low-frequency events, where estimates are required for risk mitigation decision support such as as low as reasonably possible. A summary of empirical Bayes methods is given and the choices of estimation procedures to obtain interval estimates are discussed. The approaches illustrated within the case study are based on the estimation of the rate of occurrence of train derailments within the UK. The usefulness of empirical Bayes within this context is discussed

  15. HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiecki, Thomas V; Sofer, Imri; Frank, Michael J

    2013-01-01

    The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision-making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on response times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of response time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model), which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject/condition than non-hierarchical methods, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g., fMRI) influence decision-making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of the drift diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the χ(2)-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs/

  16. HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas V Wiecki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on reaction times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of reaction time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model, which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject / condition than non-hierarchical method, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g. fMRI influence decision making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of drift-diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the chi-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs

  17. Impact of communities, health, and emotional-related factors on smoking use: comparison of joint modeling of mean and dispersion and Bayes' hierarchical models on add health survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Jie; Fang, Di; Wilson, Jeffrey R

    2017-02-03

    The analysis of correlated binary data is commonly addressed through the use of conditional models with random effects included in the systematic component as opposed to generalized estimating equations (GEE) models that addressed the random component. Since the joint distribution of the observations is usually unknown, the conditional distribution is a natural approach. Our objective was to compare the fit of different binary models for correlated data in Tabaco use. We advocate that the joint modeling of the mean and dispersion may be at times just as adequate. We assessed the ability of these models to account for the intraclass correlation. In so doing, we concentrated on fitting logistic regression models to address smoking behaviors. Frequentist and Bayes' hierarchical models were used to predict conditional probabilities, and the joint modeling (GLM and GAM) models were used to predict marginal probabilities. These models were fitted to National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data for Tabaco use. We found that people were less likely to smoke if they had higher income, high school or higher education and religious. Individuals were more likely to smoke if they had abused drug or alcohol, spent more time on TV and video games, and been arrested. Moreover, individuals who drank alcohol early in life were more likely to be a regular smoker. Children who experienced mistreatment from their parents were more likely to use Tabaco regularly. The joint modeling of the mean and dispersion models offered a flexible and meaningful method of addressing the intraclass correlation. They do not require one to identify random effects nor distinguish from one level of the hierarchy to the other. Moreover, once one can identify the significant random effects, one can obtain similar results to the random coefficient models. We found that the set of marginal models accounting for extravariation through the additional dispersion submodel produced

  18. Multilevel Empirical Bayes Modeling for Improved Estimation of Toxicant Formulations to Suppress Parasitic Sea Lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, L.A.; Gutreuter, S.; Boogaard, M.A.; Carlin, B.P.

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data. ?? 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

    2015-10-01

    Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

  20. Hierarchical graphical-based human pose estimation via local multi-resolution convolutional neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Aichun; Wang, Tian; Snoussi, Hichem

    2018-03-01

    This paper addresses the problems of the graphical-based human pose estimation in still images, including the diversity of appearances and confounding background clutter. We present a new architecture for estimating human pose using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Firstly, a Relative Mixture Deformable Model (RMDM) is defined by each pair of connected parts to compute the relative spatial information in the graphical model. Secondly, a Local Multi-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (LMR-CNN) is proposed to train and learn the multi-scale representation of each body parts by combining different levels of part context. Thirdly, a LMR-CNN based hierarchical model is defined to explore the context information of limb parts. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning approach for human pose estimation.

  1. Hierarchical graphical-based human pose estimation via local multi-resolution convolutional neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aichun Zhu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problems of the graphical-based human pose estimation in still images, including the diversity of appearances and confounding background clutter. We present a new architecture for estimating human pose using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN. Firstly, a Relative Mixture Deformable Model (RMDM is defined by each pair of connected parts to compute the relative spatial information in the graphical model. Secondly, a Local Multi-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (LMR-CNN is proposed to train and learn the multi-scale representation of each body parts by combining different levels of part context. Thirdly, a LMR-CNN based hierarchical model is defined to explore the context information of limb parts. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning approach for human pose estimation.

  2. Sequential bayes estimation algorithm with cubic splines on uniform meshes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossfeld, F.; Mika, K.; Plesser-Walk, E.

    1975-11-01

    After outlining the principles of some recent developments in parameter estimation, a sequential numerical algorithm for generalized curve-fitting applications is presented combining results from statistical estimation concepts and spline analysis. Due to its recursive nature, the algorithm can be used most efficiently in online experimentation. Using computer-sumulated and experimental data, the efficiency and the flexibility of this sequential estimation procedure is extensively demonstrated. (orig.) [de

  3. Asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models with application to ion channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gunst, M.C.M.; Shcherbakova, O.V.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models as the number of observations goes to infinity. The theorem that we prove is similar to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem on the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution for the case of independent

  4. Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, Rebecca Yates; Browna, Elizabeth R.

    2016-01-01

    Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre-exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population-level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood-based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual-level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson-distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. PMID:26869051

  5. Estimating Vertical Land Motion in the Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houttuijn Bloemendaal, L.; Hensel, P.

    2017-12-01

    This study aimed to provide a modern measurement of subsidence in the Chesapeake Bay region and establish a methodology for measuring vertical land motion using static GPS, a cheaper alternative to InSAR or classical leveling. Vertical land motion in this area is of particular concern because tide gages are showing up to 5 mm/yr of local, relative sea level rise. While a component of this rate is the actual eustatic sea level rise itself, part of the trend may also be vertical land motion, in which subsidence exacerbates the effects of actual changes in sea level. Parts of this region are already experiencing an increase in the frequency and magnitude of near-shore coastal flooding, but the last comprehensive study of vertical land motion in this area was conducted by NOAA in 1974 (Holdahl & Morrison) using repeat leveled lines. More recent measures of vertical land motion can help inform efforts on resilience to sea level rise, such as in the Hampton Roads area. This study used measured GPS-derived vertical heights in conjunction with legacy GPS data to calculate rates of vertical motion at several points in time for a selection of benchmarks scattered throughout the region. Seventeen marks in the stable Piedmont area and in the areas suspected of subsidence in the Coastal Plain were selected for the analysis. Results indicate a significant difference between the rates of vertical motion in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, with a mean rate of -4.10 mm/yr in the Coastal Plain and 0.15 mm/yr in the Piedmont. The rates indicate particularly severe subsidence at the southern Delmarva Peninsula coast and the Hampton-Roads area, with a mean rate of -6.57 mm/yr in that region. By knowing local rates of subsidence as opposed to sea level change itself, coastal managers may make better informed decisions regarding natural resource use, such as deciding whether or not to reduce subsurface fluid withdrawals or to consider injecting treated water back into the aquifer to slow

  6. Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

  7. A hierarchical model for estimating density in camera-trap studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K.Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating animal density using capture–recapture data from arrays of detection devices such as camera traps has been problematic due to the movement of individuals and heterogeneity in capture probability among them induced by differential exposure to trapping.We develop a spatial capture–recapture model for estimating density from camera-trapping data which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to and detection by traps.We adopt a Bayesian approach to analysis of the hierarchical model using the technique of data augmentation.The model is applied to photographic capture–recapture data on tigers Panthera tigris in Nagarahole reserve, India. Using this model, we estimate the density of tigers to be 14·3 animals per 100 km2 during 2004.Synthesis and applications. Our modelling framework largely overcomes several weaknesses in conventional approaches to the estimation of animal density from trap arrays. It effectively deals with key problems such as individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, movement of traps, presence of potential ‘holes’ in the array and ad hoc estimation of sample area. The formulation, thus, greatly enhances flexibility in the conduct of field surveys as well as in the analysis of data, from studies that may involve physical, photographic or DNA-based ‘captures’ of individual animals.

  8. Estimating the Term Structure With a Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model: An Application to Corporate Bonds1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B.; Rosner, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material. PMID:21765566

  9. Merging expert and empirical data for rare event frequency estimation: Pool homogenisation for empirical Bayes models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, John; Hardman, Gavin; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

    2011-01-01

    Empirical Bayes provides one approach to estimating the frequency of rare events as a weighted average of the frequencies of an event and a pool of events. The pool will draw upon, for example, events with similar precursors. The higher the degree of homogeneity of the pool, then the Empirical Bayes estimator will be more accurate. We propose and evaluate a new method using homogenisation factors under the assumption that events are generated from a Homogeneous Poisson Process. The homogenisation factors are scaling constants, which can be elicited through structured expert judgement and used to align the frequencies of different events, hence homogenising the pool. The estimation error relative to the homogeneity of the pool is examined theoretically indicating that reduced error is associated with larger pool homogeneity. The effects of misspecified expert assessments of the homogenisation factors are examined theoretically and through simulation experiments. Our results show that the proposed Empirical Bayes method using homogenisation factors is robust under different degrees of misspecification.

  10. A Bayesian hierarchical model with novel prior specifications for estimating HIV testing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qian; Kang, Jian; Song, Ruiguang; Hall, H Irene

    2016-04-30

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a severe infectious disease actively spreading globally, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is an advanced stage of HIV infection. The HIV testing rate, that is, the probability that an AIDS-free HIV infected person seeks a test for HIV during a particular time interval, given no previous positive test has been obtained prior to the start of the time, is an important parameter for public health. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with two levels of hierarchy to estimate the HIV testing rate using annual AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnoses data. At level one, we model the latent number of HIV infections for each year using a Poisson distribution with the intensity parameter representing the HIV incidence rate. At level two, the annual numbers of AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnosed cases and all undiagnosed cases stratified by the HIV infections at different years are modeled using a multinomial distribution with parameters including the HIV testing rate. We propose a new class of priors for the HIV incidence rate and HIV testing rate taking into account the temporal dependence of these parameters to improve the estimation accuracy. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm based on the adaptive rejection metropolis sampling technique. We demonstrate our model using simulation studies and the analysis of the national HIV surveillance data in the USA. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Estimates of bottom roughness length and bottom shear stress in South San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, R.T.; Ling, C.-H.; Gartner, J.W.; Wang, P.-F.

    1999-01-01

    A field investigation of the hydrodynamics and the resuspension and transport of participate matter in a bottom boundary layer was carried out in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay), California, during March-April 1995. Using broadband acoustic Doppler current profilers, detailed measurements of turbulent mean velocity distribution within 1.5 m above bed have been obtained. A global method of data analysis was used for estimating bottom roughness length zo and bottom shear stress (or friction velocities u*). Field data have been examined by dividing the time series of velocity profiles into 24-hour periods and independently analyzing the velocity profile time series by flooding and ebbing periods. The global method of solution gives consistent properties of bottom roughness length zo and bottom shear stress values (or friction velocities u*) in South Bay. Estimated mean values of zo and u* for flooding and ebbing cycles are different. The differences in mean zo and u* are shown to be caused by tidal current flood-ebb inequality, rather than the flooding or ebbing of tidal currents. The bed shear stress correlates well with a reference velocity; the slope of the correlation defines a drag coefficient. Forty-three days of field data in South Bay show two regimes of zo (and drag coefficient) as a function of a reference velocity. When the mean velocity is >25-30 cm s-1, the ln zo (and thus the drag coefficient) is inversely proportional to the reference velocity. The cause for the reduction of roughness length is hypothesized as sediment erosion due to intensifying tidal currents thereby reducing bed roughness. When the mean velocity is <25-30 cm s-1, the correlation between zo and the reference velocity is less clear. A plausible explanation of scattered values of zo under this condition may be sediment deposition. Measured sediment data were inadequate to support this hypothesis, but the proposed hypothesis warrants further field investigation.

  12. The Dynamics, Ecological Variability and Estimated Carbon Stocks of Mangroves in Mahajamba Bay, Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor G. Jones

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves are found throughout the tropics, providing critical ecosystem goods and services to coastal communities and supporting rich biodiversity. Globally, mangroves are being rapidly degraded and deforested at rates exceeding loss in many tropical inland forests. Madagascar contains around 2% of the global distribution, >20% of which has been deforested since 1990, primarily from over-harvest for forest products and conversion for agriculture and aquaculture. While historically not prominent, mangrove loss in Madagascar’s Mahajamba Bay is increasing. Here, we focus on Mahajamba Bay, presenting long-term dynamics calculated using United States Geological Survey (USGS national-level mangrove maps contextualized with socio-economic research and ground observations, and the results of contemporary (circa 2011 mapping of dominant mangrove types. The analysis of the USGS data indicated 1050 hectares (3.8% lost from 2000 to 2010, which socio-economic research suggests is increasingly driven by commercial timber extraction. Contemporary mapping results permitted stratified sampling based on spectrally distinct and ecologically meaningful mangrove types, allowing for the first-ever vegetation carbon stock estimates for Mahajamba Bay. The overall mean carbon stock across all mangrove classes was estimated to be 100.97 ± 10.49 Mg C ha−1. High stature closed-canopy mangroves had the highest average carbon stock estimate (i.e., 166.82 ± 15.28 Mg C ha−1. These estimates are comparable to other published values in Madagascar and elsewhere in the Western Indian Ocean and demonstrate the ecological variability of Mahajamba Bay’s mangroves and their value towards climate change mitigation.

  13. An Example of an Improvable Rao-Blackwell Improvement, Inefficient Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Unbiased Generalized Bayes Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galili, Tal; Meilijson, Isaac

    2016-01-02

    The Rao-Blackwell theorem offers a procedure for converting a crude unbiased estimator of a parameter θ into a "better" one, in fact unique and optimal if the improvement is based on a minimal sufficient statistic that is complete. In contrast, behind every minimal sufficient statistic that is not complete, there is an improvable Rao-Blackwell improvement. This is illustrated via a simple example based on the uniform distribution, in which a rather natural Rao-Blackwell improvement is uniformly improvable. Furthermore, in this example the maximum likelihood estimator is inefficient, and an unbiased generalized Bayes estimator performs exceptionally well. Counterexamples of this sort can be useful didactic tools for explaining the true nature of a methodology and possible consequences when some of the assumptions are violated. [Received December 2014. Revised September 2015.].

  14. Sedimentation rate estimates in Sorsogon Bay, Philippines using 210Pb method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madrid, Jordan F.; Sta. Maria, Efren J.; Olivares, Ryan U.; Aniago, Ryan Joseph; Asa Anie Day DC; Dayaon, Jennyvi P.; Bulos, Adelina DM; Sombrito, Elvira Z.

    2011-01-01

    Sorsogon Bay has experienced a long history of recurring harmful algal blooms over the past few years. In an attempt to establish a chronology of events in the sediment layer, lead-210 ( 210 Pb) dating method has been utilized in estimating sedimentation rates from three selected areas along the bay. Based on the unsupported 210 Pb data and by applying the Constant Initial Concentration (CIC) model, the calculated sedimentation rates were 0.8, 1.3 and 1.8 cm yr 1 for sediment cores collected near the coastal areas of Castilla (SO-01), Sorsogon City (SO-07) and Cadacan River (SO-03), respectively. High sedimentation rates were measured in sediment cores believed to be affected from frequent volcanic ash releases and from areas near human settlement combined with intensive farming and agricultural activities. The collected sediments exhibited non-uniform down core values of dry bulk density and moisture content. This variation in measurements may indicate the general quality and composition of the sediment samples, i.e., amount of organic matter and grain size. The calculated sedimentation rates obtained provided an overview of the sedimentation processes and reflect the land use pattern around the bay which may help in understanding the history and distribution of materials and nutrient input relative to the occurrence of harmful algal bloom in the sediment columns. (author)

  15. Estimation of polarization distribution on gold nanorods system from hierarchical features of optical near-field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchiyama, Kazuharu; Nishikawa, Naoki; Nakagomi, Ryo; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi; Hori, Hirokazu

    2018-02-01

    To design optoelectronic functionalities in nanometer scale based on interactions of electronic system with optical near-fields, it is essential to evaluate the relationship between optical near-fields and their sources. Several theoretical studies have been performed, so far, to analyze such complex relationship to design the interaction fields of several specific scales. In this study, we have performed detailed and high-precision measurements of optical near-field structures woven by a large number of independent polarizations generated in the gold nanorods array under laser light irradiation at the resonant frequency. We have accumulated the multi-layered data of optical near-field imaging at different heights above the planar surface with the resolution of several nm by a STM-assisted scanning near-field optical microscope. Based on these data, we have performed an inverse calculation to estimate the position, direction, and strength of the local polarization buried under the flat surface of the sample. As a result of the inverse operation, we have confirmed that the complexities in the nanometer scale optical near-fields could be reconstructed by combinations of induced polarization in each gold nanorod. We have demonstrated the hierarchical properties of optical near-fields based on spatial frequency expansion and superposition of dipole fields to provide insightful information for applications such for secure multi-layered information storage.

  16. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2015-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  17. Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2013-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  18. Microphytobenthos potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarini, Jean-Marc; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, Jody L.; Gros, Philippe

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

  19. Microphytobenthic potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarini, J.-M.; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, J.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

  20. Improving Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation over Complex Terrain in the San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Chen, H.; Chandrasekar, V.

    2017-12-01

    A recent study by the State of California's Department of Water Resources has emphasized that the San Francisco Bay Area is at risk of catastrophic flooding. Therefore, accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and forecast (QPF) are critical for protecting life and property in this region. Compared to rain gauge and meteorological satellite, ground based radar has shown great advantages for high-resolution precipitation observations in both space and time domain. In addition, the polarization diversity shows great potential to characterize precipitation microphysics through identification of different hydrometeor types and their size and shape information. Currently, all the radars comprising the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network are operating in dual-polarization mode. Enhancement of QPE is one of the main considerations of the dual-polarization upgrade. The San Francisco Bay Area is covered by two S-band WSR-88D radars, namely, KMUX and KDAX. However, in complex terrain like the Bay Area, it is still challenging to obtain an optimal rainfall algorithm for a given set of dual-polarization measurements. In addition, the accuracy of rain rate estimates is contingent on additional factors such as bright band contamination, vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) correction, and partial beam blockages. This presentation aims to improve radar QPE for the Bay area using advanced dual-polarization rainfall methodologies. The benefit brought by the dual-polarization upgrade of operational radar network is assessed. In addition, a pilot study of gap fill X-band radar performance is conducted in support of regional QPE system development. This paper also presents a detailed comparison between the dual-polarization radar-derived rainfall products with various operational products including the NSSL's Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system. Quantitative evaluation of various rainfall products is achieved

  1. An Approach to Structure Determination and Estimation of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas and its Application to Bayesian Classification

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Górecki, J.; Hofert, M.; Holeňa, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 46, č. 1 (2016), s. 21-59 ISSN 0925-9902 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Grant - others:Slezská univerzita v Opavě(CZ) SGS/21/2014 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Copula * Hierarchical archimedean copula * Copula estimation * Structure determination * Kendall’s tau * Bayesian classification Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 1.294, year: 2016

  2. Multilevel eEmpirical Bayes modeling for improved estimation of toxicant formulations tosuppress parasitic sea lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A.; Gutreuter, Steve; Boogaard, Michael A.; Carlin, Bradley P.

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data.

  3. Estimation of breeding values for mean and dispersion, their variance and correlation using double hierarchical generalized linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felleki, M; Lee, D; Lee, Y; Gilmour, A R; Rönnegård, L

    2012-12-01

    The possibility of breeding for uniform individuals by selecting animals expressing a small response to environment has been studied extensively in animal breeding. Bayesian methods for fitting models with genetic components in the residual variance have been developed for this purpose, but have limitations due to the computational demands. We use the hierarchical (h)-likelihood from the theory of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM) to derive an estimation algorithm that is computationally feasible for large datasets. Random effects for both the mean and residual variance parts of the model are estimated together with their variance/covariance components. An important feature of the algorithm is that it can fit a correlation between the random effects for mean and variance. An h-likelihood estimator is implemented in the R software and an iterative reweighted least square (IRWLS) approximation of the h-likelihood is implemented using ASReml. The difference in variance component estimates between the two implementations is investigated, as well as the potential bias of the methods, using simulations. IRWLS gives the same results as h-likelihood in simple cases with no severe indication of bias. For more complex cases, only IRWLS could be used, and bias did appear. The IRWLS is applied on the pig litter size data previously analysed by Sorensen & Waagepetersen (2003) using Bayesian methodology. The estimates we obtained by using IRWLS are similar to theirs, with the estimated correlation between the random genetic effects being -0·52 for IRWLS and -0·62 in Sorensen & Waagepetersen (2003).

  4. Pose Estimation using a Hierarchical 3D Representation of Contours and Surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch, Anders Glent; Kraft, Dirk; Kämäräinen, Joni-Kristian

    2013-01-01

    We present a system for detecting the pose of rigid objects using texture and contour information. From a stereo image view of a scene, a sparse hierarchical scene representation is reconstructed using an early cognitive vision system. We define an object model in terms of a simple context...

  5. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  6. The contingent behavior of charter fishing participants on the Chesapeake Bay: Welfare estimates associated with water quality improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poor, P.J.; Breece, M.

    2006-01-01

    Water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has deteriorated over recent years. Historically, fishing has contributed to the region's local economy in terms of commercial and recreational harvests. A contingent behavior model is used to estimate welfare measures for charter fishing participants with regard to a hypothetical improvement in water quality. Using a truncated Poisson count model corrected for endogenous stratification, it was found that charter fishers not only contribute to the local market economy, but they also place positive non-market value on preserving the Bay's water quality. Using two estimates for travels costs it is estimated that the individual consumer surplus is $200 and $117 per trip, and the average individual consumer surplus values for an improvement in water quality is $75 and $44 for two models estimated. ?? 2006 University of Newcastle upon Tyne.

  7. inverse gaussian model for small area estimation via gibbs sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADMIN

    For example, MacGibbon and Tomberlin. (1989) have considered estimating small area rates and binomial parameters using empirical Bayes methods. Stroud (1991) used hierarchical Bayes approach for univariate natural exponential families with quadratic variance functions in sample survey applications, while Chaubey ...

  8. Estimating sediment accumulation rates in Manila Bay, a marine pollution hot spot in the Seas of East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sta Maria, E J; Siringan, F P; Bulos, A dM; Sombrito, E Z

    2009-01-01

    The GEF/UNDP/IMO/PEMSEA project identifies Manila Bay as among the marine pollution hot spots in the Seas of East Asia. (210)Pb dating of its sediment can provide a historical perspective of its pollution loading. However, the validity of (210)Pb dating in a complex dynamic coastal system of Manila Bay may come into question. Land-based sediment input can be high and physical and biological processes can possibly disturb the sediment layers. In this report, the (210)Pb profiles of sediment cores from different parts of the bay are presented. The linear sedimentation rates are shown to be higher in the recent past and are also variable across the bay. The largest change in sedimentation rate, coincided with the occurrence of a volcanic eruption in 1991 and is shown by applying a variant of the CIC model in sedimentation rate calculations. The data suggest that (210)Pb dating can be useful in estimating relative magnitudes of sedimentation rates, even in a complex dynamic coastal system like Manila Bay.

  9. Improving satellite-based PM2.5 estimates in China using Gaussian processes modeling in a Bayesian hierarchical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenxi; Liu, Yang; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

    2017-08-01

    Using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements and statistical models to estimate ground-level PM 2.5 is a promising way to fill the areas that are not covered by ground PM 2.5 monitors. The statistical models used in previous studies are primarily Linear Mixed Effects (LME) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. In this study, we developed a new regression model between PM 2.5 and AOD using Gaussian processes in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Gaussian processes model the stochastic nature of the spatial random effects, where the mean surface and the covariance function is specified. The spatial stochastic process is incorporated under the Bayesian hierarchical framework to explain the variation of PM 2.5 concentrations together with other factors, such as AOD, spatial and non-spatial random effects. We evaluate the results of our model and compare them with those of other, conventional statistical models (GWR and LME) by within-sample model fitting and out-of-sample validation (cross validation, CV). The results show that our model possesses a CV result (R 2  = 0.81) that reflects higher accuracy than that of GWR and LME (0.74 and 0.48, respectively). Our results indicate that Gaussian process models have the potential to improve the accuracy of satellite-based PM 2.5 estimates.

  10. Radium isotopes in Port Phillip Bay: estimation of the rate of bio irrigation of sediments, and water residence time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, G.J.; Webster, I.T.

    1998-01-01

    Recent work has shown that estuarine sediments are a source of radium (Ra) to coastal waters (Bollinger and Moore, 1982, Webster et al., 1994; Hancock et al., 1997). Ra is soluble in saline water (Moore, 1992, Webster et al., 1995) and is rapidly desorbed into porewater from deposited fluvial sediments where it is continuously generated by insoluble Th parents. The rate at which Ra effuses into surface water has been used to determine the rate of surface-water pore water exchange (Hancock and Murray, 1996). Once in the water column, the behaviour of Ra is essentially conservative, enabling the determination of water residence time in a semi-enclosed estuary (Turekian et al., 1996). Here we use measurements of Ra in an estuary to estimate two water mixing processes. Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a semi-enclosed estuary adjacent to the city of Melbourne, one of the highest density population centres in Australia. The Bay is approximately 50 km in diameter, and has an average depth of 14 m. A recent study found that the potential for eutrophication and algal blooms in the Bay was intricately linked to the fate of nutrients, particularly nitrogen, discharged into the Bay from rivers, drains, and sewage treatment plants (Harris et al. 1996). Two of the most important processes controlling the levels of inorganic N in the water column were identified as bio irrigation of bottom sediments, and the rate of exchange of Bay water with ocean water via Bass Strait. In this paper we describe how Ra isotopes can be used to estimate the rates of these processes, and we compare these rates with estimates made using conventional techniques. Water and sediment samples were collected from five sites in February 1996. Sediment cores were collected by divers, frozen, and sectioned in the laboratory. Surface, mid depth and bottom water samples were collected using a Niskin bottle. Radionuclide activities were determined by alpha spectrometry (Martin and Hancock, 1992) and gamma spectrometry

  11. Estimation of environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay, Iran, via a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

    2016-11-01

    Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea in Iran and is an important marine habitat for fish and seabirds. In the present study, the environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay was estimated using a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model and a linear programming model. The distribution of phosphorus, simulated by the numerical model, was used as an index for the occurrence of eutrophication and to determine the water quality response field of each of the pollution sources. The linear programming model was used to calculate and allocate the total maximum allowable loads of phosphorus to each of the pollution sources in a way that eutrophication be prevented and at the same time maximum environmental capacity be achieved. In addition, the effect of an artificial inlet on the environmental capacity of the bay was investigated. Observations of surface currents in Gorgan Bay were made by GPS-tracked surface drifters to provide data for calibration and verification of numerical modeling. Drifters were deployed at five different points across the bay over a period of 5 days. The results indicated that the annual environmental capacity of phosphorus is approximately 141 t if a concentration of 0.0477 mg/l for phosphorus is set as the water quality criterion. Creating an artificial inlet with a width of 1 km in the western part of the bay would result in a threefold increase in the environmental capacity of the study area.

  12. Estimates of vertical velocities and eddy coefficients in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.; Sastry, J.S.

    Vertical velocities and eddy coefficients in the intermediate depths of the Bay of Bengal are calculated from mean hydrographic data for 300 miles-squares. The linear current density (sigma- O) versus log-depth plots show steady balance between...

  13. Application of macrobenthos functional groups to estimate the ecosystem health in a semi-enclosed bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shitao; Zhou, Ran; Qin, Xuebo; Shi, Honghua; Ding, Dewen

    2013-09-15

    In this study, the functional group concept was first applied to evaluate the ecosystem health of Bohai Bay. Macrobenthos functional groups were defined according to feeding types and divided into five groups: a carnivorous group (CA), omnivorous group (OM), planktivorous group (PL), herbivorous group (HE), and detritivorous group (DE). Groups CA, DE, OM, and PL were identified, but the HE group was absent from Bohai Bay. Group DE was dominant during the study periods. The ecosystem health was assessed using a functional group evenness index. The functional group evenness values of most sampling stations were less than 0.40, indicating that the ecosystem health was deteriorated in Bohai Bay. Such deterioration could be attributed to land reclamation, industrial and sewage effluents, oil pollution, and hypersaline water discharge. This study demonstrates that the functional group concept can be applied to ecosystem health assessment in a semi-enclosed bay. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Stuttering, induced fluency, and natural fluency: a hierarchical series of activation likelihood estimation meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, Kristin S; Barron, Daniel S; Fox, Peter T

    2014-12-01

    Developmental stuttering is a speech disorder most likely due to a heritable form of developmental dysmyelination impairing the function of the speech-motor system. Speech-induced brain-activation patterns in persons who stutter (PWS) are anomalous in various ways; the consistency of these aberrant patterns is a matter of ongoing debate. Here, we present a hierarchical series of coordinate-based meta-analyses addressing this issue. Two tiers of meta-analyses were performed on a 17-paper dataset (202 PWS; 167 fluent controls). Four large-scale (top-tier) meta-analyses were performed, two for each subject group (PWS and controls). These analyses robustly confirmed the regional effects previously postulated as "neural signatures of stuttering" (Brown, Ingham, Ingham, Laird, & Fox, 2005) and extended this designation to additional regions. Two smaller-scale (lower-tier) meta-analyses refined the interpretation of the large-scale analyses: (1) a between-group contrast targeting differences between PWS and controls (stuttering trait); and (2) a within-group contrast (PWS only) of stuttering with induced fluency (stuttering state). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Robust feature estimation by non-rigid hierarchical image registration and its application in disparity measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badshah, Amir; Choudhry, Aadil Jaleel; Ullah, Shan

    2017-03-01

    Industries are moving towards automation in order to increase productivity and ensure quality. Variety of electronic and electromagnetic systems are being employed to assist human operator in fast and accurate quality inspection of products. Majority of these systems are equipped with cameras and rely on diverse image processing algorithms. Information is lost in 2D image, therefore acquiring accurate 3D data from 2D images is an open issue. FAST, SURF and SIFT are well-known spatial domain techniques for features extraction and henceforth image registration to find correspondence between images. The efficiency of these methods is measured in terms of the number of perfect matches found. A novel fast and robust technique for stereo-image processing is proposed. It is based on non-rigid registration using modified normalized phase correlation. The proposed method registers two images in hierarchical fashion using quad-tree structure. The registration process works through global to local level resulting in robust matches even in presence of blur and noise. The computed matches can further be utilized to determine disparity and depth for industrial product inspection. The same can be used in driver assistance systems. The preliminary tests on Middlebury dataset produced satisfactory results. The execution time for a 413 x 370 stereo-pair is 500ms approximately on a low cost DSP.

  16. Bayes allocation of the sample for estimation of the mean when each stratum has a Poisson distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, T.

    1983-01-01

    Consider a stratified population with L strata, so that a Poisson random variable is associated with each stratum. The parameter associated with the hth stratum is theta/sub h/, h = 1, 2, ..., L. Let ω/sub h/ be the known proportion of the population in the hth stratum, h = 1, 2, ..., L. The authors want to estimate the parameter theta = summation from h = 1 to L ω/sub h/theta/sub h/. We assume that prior information is available on theta/sub h/ and that it can be expressed in terms of a gamma distribution with parameters α/sub h/ and β/sub h/, h = 1, 2, ..., L. We also assume that the prior distributions are independent. Using squared error loss function, a Bayes allocation of total sample size with a cost constraint is given. The Bayes estimate using the Bayes allocation is shown to have an adjusted mean square error which is strictly less than the adjusted mean square error of the classical estimate using the classical allocation

  17. Optimization of hierarchical 3DRS motion estimators for picture rate conversion

    OpenAIRE

    Heinrich, A.; Bartels, C.L.L.; Vleuten, van der, R.J.; Cordes, C.N.; Haan, de, G.

    2010-01-01

    There is a continuous pressure to lower the implementation complexity and improve the quality of motion-compensated picture rate conversion methods. Since the concept of hierarchy can be advantageously applied to many motion estimation methods, we have extended and improved the current state-of-the-art motion estimation method in this field, 3-Dimensional Recursive Search (3DRS), with this concept. We have explored the extensive parameter space and present an analysis of the importance and in...

  18. Optimization of hierarchical 3DRS motion estimators for picture rate conversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinrich, A.; Bartels, C.L.L.; Vleuten, van der R.J.; Cordes, C.N.; Haan, de G.

    2010-01-01

    There is a continuous pressure to lower the implementation complexity and improve the quality of motion-compensated picture rate conversion methods. Since the concept of hierarchy can be advantageously applied to many motion estimation methods, we have extended and improved the current

  19. Estimation of macroscopic elastic characteristics for hierarchical anisotropic solids based on probabilistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolina, Irina Yu.

    2015-10-01

    Mechanical properties of a cable are of great importance in design and strength calculation of flexible cables. The problem of determination of elastic properties and rigidity characteristics of a cable modeled by anisotropic helical elastic rod is considered. These characteristics are calculated indirectly by means of the parameters received from statistical processing of experimental data. These parameters are considered as random quantities. With taking into account probable nature of these parameters the formulas for estimation of the macroscopic elastic moduli of a cable are obtained. The calculating expressions for macroscopic flexural rigidity, shear rigidity and torsion rigidity using the macroscopic elastic characteristics obtained before are presented. Statistical estimations of the rigidity characteristics of some cable grades are adduced. A comparison with those characteristics received on the basis of deterministic approach is given.

  20. Anisotropic mesh adaptation for solution of finite element problems using hierarchical edge-based error estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipnikov, Konstantin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Agouzal, Abdellatif [UNIV DE LYON; Vassilevski, Yuri [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We present a new technology for generating meshes minimizing the interpolation and discretization errors or their gradients. The key element of this methodology is construction of a space metric from edge-based error estimates. For a mesh with N{sub h} triangles, the error is proportional to N{sub h}{sup -1} and the gradient of error is proportional to N{sub h}{sup -1/2} which are optimal asymptotics. The methodology is verified with numerical experiments.

  1. Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Oliver R., E-mail: oliver.price@unilever.co [Warwick-HRI, University of Warwick, Wellesbourne, Warwick, CV32 6EF (United Kingdom); University of Reading, Soil Science Department, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UR (United Kingdom); Oliver, Margaret A. [University of Reading, Soil Science Department, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UR (United Kingdom); Walker, Allan [Warwick-HRI, University of Warwick, Wellesbourne, Warwick, CV32 6EF (United Kingdom); Wood, Martin [University of Reading, Soil Science Department, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6UR (United Kingdom)

    2009-05-15

    An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field. - Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling.

  2. Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Oliver R.; Oliver, Margaret A.; Walker, Allan; Wood, Martin

    2009-01-01

    An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field. - Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling.

  3. Hierarchical probing for estimating the trace of the matrix inverse on toroidal lattices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stathopoulos, Andreas [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; Laeuchli, Jesse [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; Orginos, Kostas [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; Jefferson Lab

    2013-10-01

    The standard approach for computing the trace of the inverse of a very large, sparse matrix $A$ is to view the trace as the mean value of matrix quadratures, and use the Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate it. This approach is heavily used in our motivating application of Lattice QCD. Often, the elements of $A^{-1}$ display certain decay properties away from the non zero structure of $A$, but random vectors cannot exploit this induced structure of $A^{-1}$. Probing is a technique that, given a sparsity pattern of $A$, discovers elements of $A$ through matrix-vector multiplications with specially designed vectors. In the case of $A^{-1}$, the pattern is obtained by distance-$k$ coloring of the graph of $A$. For sufficiently large $k$, the method produces accurate trace estimates but the cost of producing the colorings becomes prohibitively expensive. More importantly, it is difficult to search for an optimal $k$ value, since none of the work for prior choices of $k$ can be reused.

  4. Hierarchical Bayesian sparse image reconstruction with application to MRFM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobigeon, Nicolas; Hero, Alfred O; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

    2009-09-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct sparse images when the observations are obtained from linear transformations and corrupted by an additive white Gaussian noise. Our hierarchical Bayes model is well suited to such naturally sparse image applications as it seamlessly accounts for properties such as sparsity and positivity of the image via appropriate Bayes priors. We propose a prior that is based on a weighted mixture of a positive exponential distribution and a mass at zero. The prior has hyperparameters that are tuned automatically by marginalization over the hierarchical Bayesian model. To overcome the complexity of the posterior distribution, a Gibbs sampling strategy is proposed. The Gibbs samples can be used to estimate the image to be recovered, e.g., by maximizing the estimated posterior distribution. In our fully Bayesian approach, the posteriors of all the parameters are available. Thus, our algorithm provides more information than other previously proposed sparse reconstruction methods that only give a point estimate. The performance of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian sparse reconstruction method is illustrated on synthetic data and real data collected from a tobacco virus sample using a prototype MRFM instrument.

  5. Multi-band algorithms for the estimation of chlorophyll concentration in the Chesapeake Bay

    KAUST Repository

    Gilerson, Alexander

    2015-10-14

    Standard blue-green ratio algorithms do not usually work well in turbid productive waters because of the contamination of the blue and green bands by CDOM absorption and scattering by non-algal particles. One of the alternative approaches is based on the two- or three band ratio algorithms in the red/NIR part of the spectrum, which require 665, 708, 753 nm bands (or similar) and which work well in various waters all over the world. The critical 708 nm band for these algorithms is not available on MODIS and VIIRS sensors, which limits applications of this approach. We report on another approach where a combination of the 745nm band with blue-green-red bands was the basis for the new algorithms. A multi-band algorithm which includes ratios Rrs(488)/Rrs(551)and Rrs(671)/Rrs(745) and two band algorithm based on Rrs671/Rrs745 ratio were developed with the main focus on the Chesapeake Bay (USA) waters. These algorithms were tested on the specially developed synthetic datasets, well representing the main relationships between water parameters in the Bay taken from the NASA NOMAD database and available literature, on the field data collected by our group during a 2013 campaign in the Bay, as well as NASA SeaBASS data from the other group and on matchups between satellite imagery and water parameters measured by the Chesapeake Bay program. Our results demonstrate that the coefficient of determination can be as high as R2 > 0.90 for the new algorithms in comparison with R2 = 0.6 for the standard OC3V algorithm on the same field dataset. Substantial improvement was also achieved by applying a similar approach (inclusion of Rrs(667)/Rrs(753) ratio) for MODIS matchups. Results for VIIRS are not yet conclusive. © (2015) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

  6. A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert M Dorazio

    Full Text Available Several spatial capture-recapture (SCR models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.We developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.Our approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species distribution model, even in

  7. Bayes procedures for adaptive inference in inverse problems for the white noise model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knapik, B.T.; Szabó, B.T.; van der Vaart, A.W.; van Zanten, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    We study empirical and hierarchical Bayes approaches to the problem of estimating an infinite-dimensional parameter in mildly ill-posed inverse problems. We consider a class of prior distributions indexed by a hyperparameter that quantifies regularity. We prove that both methods we consider succeed

  8. Rainfall Estimation and Performance Characterization Using an X-band Dual-Polarization Radar in the San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Chen, H.; Chandra, C. V.

    2016-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay area is home to over 5 million people. In February 2016, the area also hosted the NFL Super bowl, bringing additional people and focusing national attention to the region. Based on the El Nino forecast, public officials expressed concern for heavy rainfall and flooding with the potential for threats to public safety, costly flood damage to infrastructure, negative impacts to water quality (e.g., combined sewer overflows) and major disruptions in transportation. Mitigation of the negative impacts listed above requires accurate precipitation monitoring (quantitative precipitation estimation-QPE) and prediction (including radar nowcasting). The proximity to terrain and maritime conditions as well as the siting of existing NEXRAD radars are all challenges in providing accurate, short-term near surface rainfall estimates in the Bay area urban region. As part of a collaborative effort between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory, Colorado State University (CSU), and Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD), an X-band dual-polarization radar was deployed in Santa Clara Valley in February of 2016 to provide support for the National Weather Service during the Super Bowl and NOAA's El Nino Rapid Response field campaign. This high-resolution radar was deployed on the roof of one of the buildings at the Penitencia Water Treatment Plant. The main goal was to provide detailed precipitation information for use in weather forecasting and assists the water district in their ability to predict rainfall and streamflow with real-time rainfall data over Santa Clara County especially during a potentially large El Nino year. The following figure shows the radar's coverage map, as well as sample reflectivity observations on March 06, 2016, at 00:04UTC. This paper presents results from a pilot study from February, 2016 to May, 2016 demonstrating the use of X-band weather radar for quantitative precipitation

  9. Estimates of nitrate loads and yields from groundwater to streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed based on land use and geology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terziotti, Silvia; Capel, Paul D.; Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Hopple, Jessica A.; Kronholm, Scott C.

    2018-03-07

    The water quality of the Chesapeake Bay may be adversely affected by dissolved nitrate carried in groundwater discharge to streams. To estimate the concentrations, loads, and yields of nitrate from groundwater to streams for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, a regression model was developed based on measured nitrate concentrations from 156 small streams with watersheds less than 500 square miles (mi2 ) at baseflow. The regression model has three predictive variables: geologic unit, percent developed land, and percent agricultural land. Comparisons of estimated and actual values within geologic units were closely matched. The coefficient of determination (R2 ) for the model was 0.6906. The model was used to calculate baseflow nitrate concentrations at over 83,000 National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2 catchments and aggregated to 1,966 total 12-digit hydrologic units in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The modeled output geospatial data layers provided estimated annual loads and yields of nitrate from groundwater into streams. The spatial distribution of annual nitrate yields from groundwater estimated by this method was compared to the total watershed yields of all sources estimated from a Chesapeake Bay SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) water-quality model. The comparison showed similar spatial patterns. The regression model for groundwater contribution had similar but lower yields, suggesting that groundwater is an important source of nitrogen for streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

  10. Estimating the phenology of elk brucellosis transmission with hierarchical models of cause-specific and baseline hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul C.; Maichak, Eric J.; Rogerson, Jared D.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Jones, Jennifer D; Heisey, Dennis M.; Edwards, William H.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the

  11. Improved estimation of subject-level functional connectivity using full and partial correlation with empirical Bayes shrinkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejia, Amanda F; Nebel, Mary Beth; Barber, Anita D; Choe, Ann S; Pekar, James J; Caffo, Brian S; Lindquist, Martin A

    2018-05-15

    Reliability of subject-level resting-state functional connectivity (FC) is determined in part by the statistical techniques employed in its estimation. Methods that pool information across subjects to inform estimation of subject-level effects (e.g., Bayesian approaches) have been shown to enhance reliability of subject-level FC. However, fully Bayesian approaches are computationally demanding, while empirical Bayesian approaches typically rely on using repeated measures to estimate the variance components in the model. Here, we avoid the need for repeated measures by proposing a novel measurement error model for FC describing the different sources of variance and error, which we use to perform empirical Bayes shrinkage of subject-level FC towards the group average. In addition, since the traditional intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) is inappropriate for biased estimates, we propose a new reliability measure denoted the mean squared error intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC MSE ) to properly assess the reliability of the resulting (biased) estimates. We apply the proposed techniques to test-retest resting-state fMRI data on 461 subjects from the Human Connectome Project to estimate connectivity between 100 regions identified through independent components analysis (ICA). We consider both correlation and partial correlation as the measure of FC and assess the benefit of shrinkage for each measure, as well as the effects of scan duration. We find that shrinkage estimates of subject-level FC exhibit substantially greater reliability than traditional estimates across various scan durations, even for the most reliable connections and regardless of connectivity measure. Additionally, we find partial correlation reliability to be highly sensitive to the choice of penalty term, and to be generally worse than that of full correlations except for certain connections and a narrow range of penalty values. This suggests that the penalty needs to be chosen carefully

  12. Bayes filter modification for drivability map estimation with observations from stereo vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchenko, Aleksei; Prun, Viktor; Turchenkov, Dmitri

    2017-02-01

    Reconstruction of a drivability map for a moving vehicle is a well-known research topic in applied robotics. Here creating such a map for an autonomous truck on a generally planar surface containing separate obstacles is considered. The source of measurements for the truck is a calibrated pair of cameras. The stereo system detects and reconstructs several types of objects, such as road borders, other vehicles, pedestrians and general tall objects or highly saturated objects (e.g. road cone). For creating a robust mapping module we use a modification of Bayes filtering, which introduces some novel techniques for occupancy map update step. Specifically, our modified version becomes applicable to the presence of false positive measurement errors, stereo shading and obstacle occlusion. We implemented the technique and achieved real-time 15 FPS computations on an industrial shake proof PC. Our real world experiments show the positive effect of the filtering step.

  13. EnviroAtlas - Green Bay, WI - Estimated Percent Tree Cover Along Walkable Roads

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset estimates tree cover along walkable roads. The road width is estimated for each road and percent tree cover is calculated in a 8.5 meter...

  14. Seasonal estimates of DOC standing stocks in Apalachicola Bay estuary: Towards a better understanding using field, ocean color and model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Sa, E. J.; Joshi, I.; Osburn, C. L.; Bianchi, T. S.; Ko, D. S.; Oviedo-Vargas, D.; Arellano, A.; Ward, N.

    2016-12-01

    Apalachicola Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary located in Florida's panhandle, is well known for its water quality and oyster yields. We present the use of combined field and ocean color satellite observations and the outputs of a high-resolution hydrodynamic model to study the influence of physical processes on the distribution and the transport of terrestrially derived CDOM and DOC to shelf waters during the spring and fall of 2015. Determination of DOC stocks were based on the development of a CDOM algorithm (R2 = 0.87, N = 9) for the VIIRS ocean color sensor, and the assessment of CDOM - DOC relationships (R2 = 0.88, N = 13 in March; R2 = 0.83, N = 24 in November) for the Apalachicola Bay. Satellite-derived CDOM and DOC maps together with model-based salinity distributions revealed their spatial extent, sources and transport to the shelf water. Furthermore, strong seasonal influence on DOM distribution in the bay was associated with inputs from Apalachicola and Carrabelle Rivers and the surrounding marshes. Estimates of DOC standing stocks in the bay obtained using ocean color data and high-resolution bathymetry showed relatively higher stocks in November ( 3.71 × 106 kg C, 560 km2) than in March ( 4.07 × 106 kg C, 560 km2) despite lower river discharge in dry season. Results of DOC flux estimates from the bay to coastal waters will also be presented.

  15. OYSTER POPULATUION ESTIMATION IN SUPPORT OF THE TEN-YEAR GOAL FOR OYSTER RESOTRATION IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY: DEVELOPING STRATEGIES FOR RESTORING AND MANAGING THE EASTERN OYSTER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Roger, Steve Jordan, Gary Smith, Kennedy Paynter, James Wesson, Mary Christman, Jessica Vanisko, Juliana Harding, Kelly Greenhawk and Melissa Southworth. 2003. Oyster Population Estimation in Support of the Ten-Year Goal for Oyster Restoration in the Chesapeake Bay: Develop...

  16. On the accuracy of the simple ocean data assimilation analysis for estimating heat Budgets of the Near-Surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    The accuracy of data from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) model for estimating the heat budget of the upper ocean is tested in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. SODA is able to reproduce the changes in heat content when...

  17. Beak measurements of octopus ( Octopus variabilis) in Jiaozhou Bay and their use in size and biomass estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Ying; Ren, Yiping; Meng, Wenrong; Li, Long; Mao, Xia; Han, Dongyan; Ma, Qiuyun

    2013-09-01

    Cephalopods play key roles in global marine ecosystems as both predators and preys. Regressive estimation of original size and weight of cephalopod from beak measurements is a powerful tool of interrogating the feeding ecology of predators at higher trophic levels. In this study, regressive relationships among beak measurements and body length and weight were determined for an octopus species ( Octopus variabilis), an important endemic cephalopod species in the northwest Pacific Ocean. A total of 193 individuals (63 males and 130 females) were collected at a monthly interval from Jiaozhou Bay, China. Regressive relationships among 6 beak measurements (upper hood length, UHL; upper crest length, UCL; lower hood length, LHL; lower crest length, LCL; and upper and lower beak weights) and mantle length (ML), total length (TL) and body weight (W) were determined. Results showed that the relationships between beak size and TL and beak size and ML were linearly regressive, while those between beak size and W fitted a power function model. LHL and UCL were the most useful measurements for estimating the size and biomass of O. variabilis. The relationships among beak measurements and body length (either ML or TL) were not significantly different between two sexes; while those among several beak measurements (UHL, LHL and LBW) and body weight (W) were sexually different. Since male individuals of this species have a slightly greater body weight distribution than female individuals, the body weight was not an appropriate measurement for estimating size and biomass, especially when the sex of individuals in the stomachs of predators was unknown. These relationships provided essential information for future use in size and biomass estimation of O. variabilis, as well as the estimation of predator/prey size ratios in the diet of top predators.

  18. EnviroAtlas - Green Bay, WI - Estimated Intersection Density of Walkable Roads

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset estimates the intersection density of walkable roads within a 750 meter radius of any given 10 meter pixel in the community. Intersections...

  19. EnviroAtlas - Green Bay, WI - Estimated Percent Green Space Along Walkable Roads

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset estimates green space along walkable roads. Green space within 25 meters of the road centerline is included and the percentage is based on...

  20. Using the Surface Reflectance MODIS Terra Product to Estimate Turbidity in Tampa Bay, Florida

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas L. Rickman; Frank E. Muller-Karger; Max J. Moreno-Madrinan; Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan

    2010-01-01

    Turbidity is a commonly-used index of the factors that determine light penetration in the water column. Consistent estimation of turbidity is crucial to design environmental and restoration management plans, to predict fate of possible pollutants, and to estimate sedimentary fluxes into the ocean. Traditional methods monitoring fixed geographical locations at fixed intervals may not be representative of the mean water turbidity in estuaries between intervals, and can be expensive and time con...

  1. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  2. BAYES-HEP: Bayesian belief networks for estimation of human error probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karthick, M.; Senthil Kumar, C.; Paul, Robert T.

    2017-01-01

    Human errors contribute a significant portion of risk in safety critical applications and methods for estimation of human error probability have been a topic of research for over a decade. The scarce data available on human errors and large uncertainty involved in the prediction of human error probabilities make the task difficult. This paper presents a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model for human error probability estimation in safety critical functions of a nuclear power plant. The developed model using BBN would help to estimate HEP with limited human intervention. A step-by-step illustration of the application of the method and subsequent evaluation is provided with a relevant case study and the model is expected to provide useful insights into risk assessment studies

  3. Estimation Algorithm of Machine Operational Intention by Bayes Filtering with Self-Organizing Map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Suzuki

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We present an intention estimator algorithm that can deal with dynamic change of the environment in a man-machine system and will be able to be utilized for an autarkical human-assisting system. In the algorithm, state transition relation of intentions is formed using a self-organizing map (SOM from the measured data of the operation and environmental variables with the reference intention sequence. The operational intention modes are identified by stochastic computation using a Bayesian particle filter with the trained SOM. This method enables to omit the troublesome process to specify types of information which should be used to build the estimator. Applying the proposed method to the remote operation task, the estimator's behavior was analyzed, the pros and cons of the method were investigated, and ways for the improvement were discussed. As a result, it was confirmed that the estimator can identify the intention modes at 44–94 percent concordance ratios against normal intention modes whose periods can be found by about 70 percent of members of human analysts. On the other hand, it was found that human analysts' discrimination which was used as canonical data for validation differed depending on difference of intention modes. Specifically, an investigation of intentions pattern discriminated by eight analysts showed that the estimator could not identify the same modes that human analysts could not discriminate. And, in the analysis of the multiple different intentions, it was found that the estimator could identify the same type of intention modes to human-discriminated ones as well as 62–73 percent when the first and second dominant intention modes were considered.

  4. Person fit for test speededness: normal curvatures, likelihood ratio tests and empirical Bayes estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goegebeur, Y.; de Boeck, P.; Molenberghs, G.

    2010-01-01

    The local influence diagnostics, proposed by Cook (1986), provide a flexible way to assess the impact of minor model perturbations on key model parameters’ estimates. In this paper, we apply the local influence idea to the detection of test speededness in a model describing nonresponse in test data,

  5. Tidal Mixing Box Submodel for Tampa Bay: Calibration of Tidal Exchange Flows with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the mid-1990s the Tampa Bay Estuary Program proposed a nutrient reduction strategy focused on improving water clarity to promote seagrass expansion within Tampa Bay. A System Dynamics Model is being developed to evaluate spatially and temporally explicit impacts of nutrient r...

  6. Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina C Ansmann

    Full Text Available Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus. These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c. A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE (95% CI: 510-598 was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE (95% CI: 181-207, while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE (95% CI: 336-556 individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128 raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5% declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  7. Estimation of The Physico-Chemical Parameters in Marine Environment (Yumurtalik Bight- Iskenderun Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökhan Tamer Kayaalp

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The study was carried out to estimate the temperature, light intensity, salinity, Dissolved O2 (DO, pH values and the biotic parameter chlorophyll- a in the water column related with the depth. Because, the physico-chemical parameters affect greatly both primary and secondary producers in marine life. For this purpose the physico-chemical properties were determined day and night for 40 meter depth during the eight days. The means were compared by using the analysis of variance method and Duncan’s Multiple Comparison Test. Also physico-chemical parameters were estimated by using the analysis of regression and correlation. The effect of temperature and salinity were found significant according to the result of the analysis of variance during the day. Also the similar results were found for the night. While the effect of the depth on the chloropyll-a a was significant in the night, the effect of the depth on the DO was not significant in the day and night. The correlations among the depth and the parameters were defined. It was found the negative correlation between the depth and the temperature and light intensity. Determination coefficient of the model for salinity was also found different for day time. The correlation values among the depth and the temperature, salinity and pH were found different for the night.

  8. Estimation of arboreal lichen biomass available to woodland caribou in Hudson Bay lowland black spruce sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah K. Proceviat

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available An arboreal lichen index to be utilized in assessing woodland caribou habitat throughout northeastern Ontario was developed. The "index" was comprised of 5 classes, which differentiated arboreal lichen biomass on black spruce trees, ranging from maximal quantities of arboreal lichen (class 5 to minimal amounts of arboreal lichen (class 1. This arboreal lichen index was subsequently used to estimate the biomass of arboreal lichen available to woodland caribou on lowland black spruce sites ranging in age from 1 year to 150 years post-harvest. A total of 39 sites were assessed and significant differences in arboreal lichen biomass were found, with a positive linear relationship between arboreal lichen biomass and forest age. It is proposed that the index be utilized by government and industry as a means of assessing the suitability of lowland black spruce habitat for woodland caribou in this region.

  9. A data-driven approach to estimating the number of clusters in hierarchical clustering [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine E. Zambelli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available DNA microarray and gene expression problems often require a researcher to perform clustering on their data in a bid to better understand its structure. In cases where the number of clusters is not known, one can resort to hierarchical clustering methods. However, there currently exist very few automated algorithms for determining the true number of clusters in the data. We propose two new methods (mode and maximum difference for estimating the number of clusters in a hierarchical clustering framework to create a fully automated process with no human intervention. These methods are compared to the established elbow and gap statistic algorithms using simulated datasets and the Biobase Gene ExpressionSet. We also explore a data mixing procedure inspired by cross validation techniques. We find that the overall performance of the maximum difference method is comparable or greater to that of the gap statistic in multi-cluster scenarios, and achieves that performance at a fraction of the computational cost. This method also responds well to our mixing procedure, which opens the door to future research. We conclude that both the mode and maximum difference methods warrant further study related to their mixing and cross-validation potential. We particularly recommend the use of the maximum difference method in multi-cluster scenarios given its accuracy and execution times, and present it as an alternative to existing algorithms.

  10. Estimation of Mental Disorders Prevalence in High School Students Using Small Area Methods: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Adolescence is one of the most important periods in the course of human evolution and the prevalence of mental disorders among adolescence in different regions of Iran, especially in southern Iran. Objectives This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of mental disorders among high school students in Bushehr province, south of Iran. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 286 high school students were recruited by a multi-stage random sampling in Bushehr province in 2015. A general health questionnaire (GHQ-28 was used to assess mental disorders. The small area method, under the hierarchical Bayesian approach, was used to determine the prevalence of mental disorders and data analysis. Results From 286 questionnaires only 182 were completely filed and evaluated (the response rate was 70.5%. Of the students, 58.79% and 41.21% were male and female, respectively. Of all students, the prevalence of mental disorders in Bushehr, Dayyer, Deylam, Kangan, Dashtestan, Tangestan, Genaveh, and Dashty were 0.48, 0.42, 0.45, 0.52, 0.41, 0.47, 0.42, and 0.43, respectively. Conclusions Based on this study, the prevalence of mental disorders among adolescents was increasing in Bushehr Province counties. The lack of a national policy in this way is a serious obstacle to mental health and wellbeing access.

  11. The last interglacial period at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba and an estimate of late Quaternary tectonic uplift rate in a strike-slip regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweig, E. S.; Muhs, D. R.; Simmons, K. R.; Halley, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    Guantanamo Bay, Cuba is an area dominated by a strike-slip tectonic regime and is therefore expected to have very low Quaternary uplift rates. We tested this hypothesis by study of an unusually well preserved emergent reef terrace around the bay. Up to 12 m of unaltered, growth-position reef corals are exposed at about 40 sections examined around ˜40 km of coastline. Maximum reef elevations in the protected, inner part of the bay are ˜11-12 m, whereas outer-coast shoreline angles of wave-cut benches are as high as ˜14 m. Fifty uranium-series analyses of unrecrystallized corals from six localities yield ages ranging from ˜134 ka to ˜115 ka, when adjusted for small biases due to slightly elevated initial 234U/238U values. Thus, ages of corals correlate this reef to the peak of the last interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5.5. Previously, we dated the Key Largo Limestone to the same high-sea stand in the tectonically stable Florida Keys. Estimates of paleo-sea level during MIS 5.5 in the Florida Keys are ~6.6 to 8.3 m above present. Assuming a similar paleo-sea level in Cuba, this yields a long-term tectonic uplift rate of 0.04-0.06 m/ka over the past ~120 ka. This estimate supports the hypothesis that the tectonic uplift rate should be low in this strike-slip regime. Nevertheless, on the southeast coast of Cuba, east of our study area, we have observed flights of multiple marine terraces, suggesting either (1) a higher uplift rate or (2) an unusually well-preserved record of pre-MIS 5.5 terraces not observed at Guantanamo Bay.

  12. Hierarchical Bayes Models for Response Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craigmile, Peter F.; Peruggia, Mario; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2010-01-01

    Human response time (RT) data are widely used in experimental psychology to evaluate theories of mental processing. Typically, the data constitute the times taken by a subject to react to a succession of stimuli under varying experimental conditions. Because of the sequential nature of the experiments there are trends (due to learning, fatigue,…

  13. Hierarchical Rhetorical Sentence Categorization for Scientific Papers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachman, G. H.; Khodra, M. L.; Widyantoro, D. H.

    2018-03-01

    Important information in scientific papers can be composed of rhetorical sentences that is structured from certain categories. To get this information, text categorization should be conducted. Actually, some works in this task have been completed by employing word frequency, semantic similarity words, hierarchical classification, and the others. Therefore, this paper aims to present the rhetorical sentence categorization from scientific paper by employing TF-IDF and Word2Vec to capture word frequency and semantic similarity words and employing hierarchical classification. Every experiment is tested in two classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes and SVM Linear. This paper shows that hierarchical classifier is better than flat classifier employing either TF-IDF or Word2Vec, although it increases only almost 2% from 27.82% when using flat classifier until 29.61% when using hierarchical classifier. It shows also different learning model for child-category can be built by hierarchical classifier.

  14. SAMPLING ADAPTIVE STRATEGY AND SPATIAL ORGANISATION ESTIMATION OF SOIL ANIMAL COMMUNITIES AT VARIOUS HIERARCHICAL LEVELS OF URBANISED TERRITORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baljuk J.A.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In work the algorithm of adaptive strategy of optimum spatial sampling for studying of the spatial organisation of communities of soil animals in the conditions of an urbanization have been presented. As operating variables the principal components obtained as a result of the analysis of the field data on soil penetration resistance, soils electrical conductivity and density of a forest stand, collected on a quasiregular grid have been used. The locations of experimental polygons have been stated by means of program ESAP. The sampling has been made on a regular grid within experimental polygons. The biogeocoenological estimation of experimental polygons have been made on a basis of A.L.Belgard's ecomorphic analysis. The spatial configuration of biogeocoenosis types has been established on the basis of the data of earth remote sensing and the analysis of digital elevation model. The algorithm was suggested which allows to reveal the spatial organisation of soil animal communities at investigated point, biogeocoenosis, and landscape.

  15. [Estimation and experiment of carbon sequestration by oysters attached to the enhancement artificial reefs in Laizhou Bay, Shandong, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pi-Hai; Li, Jiao; Guan, Chang-Tao; Li, Meng-Jie; Liu, Chao

    2014-10-01

    Through sampling investigation of fouling organisms on the enhancement artificial reefs set up in Laizhou Bay, it was proved that oyster (Ostrea plicatula) was the dominant fouling species. Therefore the dry mass of shell (Ms), total fresh mass (Mt) and thickness (T) of oyster attached on the reefs were analyzed. The results showed that the Mt and Ms presented seasonal variation (P oysters attaching to the tube enhancement reefs constructed in 2009, 2010 and 2011 in Laizhou Bay were 17.61, 16.33 and 10.45 kg · m(-3), respectively. The oysters on the enhancement reefs of Jincheng marine ranch with an area of 64.25 hm2 had fixed carbon of 297.5 t C (equivalent to 1071 t of CO2) from 2009 to 2013 in Laizhou Bay. To capture and store the same amount of CO2 would cost about 1.6 x 10(5)-6.4 x 10(5) US dollars. Therefore, oysters attaching to the enhancement reefs bring about remarkable ecological benefits.

  16. Acoustic surveys for juvenile anchovy in the Bay of Biscay: Abundance estimate as an indicator of the next year's recruitment and spatial distribution patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Boyra, Guillermo; Martí nez, U.; Cotano, Unai; Begoñ a Santos, Maria; Irigoien, Xabier; Uriarte, André s

    2013-01-01

    A series of acoustic surveys (JUVENA) began in 2003 targeting juvenile anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. A specific methodology was designed for mapping and estimating juvenile abundance annually, four months after the spawning season. After eight years of the survey, a consistent picture of the spatial pattern of the juvenile anchovy has emerged. Juveniles show a vertical and horizontal distribution pattern that depends on size. The younger individuals are found isolated from other species in waters closer to the surface, mainly off the shelf within the mid-southern region of the bay. The largest juveniles are usually found deeper and closer to the shore in the company of adult anchovy and other pelagic species. In these eight years, the survey has covered a wide range of juvenile abundances, and the estimates show a significant positive relationship between the juvenile biomasses and the one-year-old recruits of the following year. This demonstrates that the JUVENA index provides an early indication of the strength of next year's recruitment to the fishery and can therefore be used to improve the management advice for the fishery of this short-lived species. © 2013 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

  17. Acoustic surveys for juvenile anchovy in the Bay of Biscay: Abundance estimate as an indicator of the next year's recruitment and spatial distribution patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Boyra, Guillermo

    2013-08-16

    A series of acoustic surveys (JUVENA) began in 2003 targeting juvenile anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. A specific methodology was designed for mapping and estimating juvenile abundance annually, four months after the spawning season. After eight years of the survey, a consistent picture of the spatial pattern of the juvenile anchovy has emerged. Juveniles show a vertical and horizontal distribution pattern that depends on size. The younger individuals are found isolated from other species in waters closer to the surface, mainly off the shelf within the mid-southern region of the bay. The largest juveniles are usually found deeper and closer to the shore in the company of adult anchovy and other pelagic species. In these eight years, the survey has covered a wide range of juvenile abundances, and the estimates show a significant positive relationship between the juvenile biomasses and the one-year-old recruits of the following year. This demonstrates that the JUVENA index provides an early indication of the strength of next year\\'s recruitment to the fishery and can therefore be used to improve the management advice for the fishery of this short-lived species. © 2013 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

  18. Use of excess 210Pb and 228Th to estimate rates of sediment accumulation and bioturbation in Port Phillip Bay, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, G.J.; Hunter, J.R.

    1999-01-01

    Rates of sediment accumulation, sediment mixing and depositional particle fluxes were estimated by use of excess 210 Pb and 228 Th. In central Port Phillip Bay, there was a rapidly mixed surface layer and two layers of different mixing rates at 2-20 cm and 2145 cm depths. When the sediment profiles of excess 210 Pb and 228 Th were combined and diffusive mixing was assumed, the sediment accumulation rate in the 2-20 cm layer was constrained to be -1 . The mixing coefficient in the 2-20 cm layer was 5.0 ± 0.1 cm 2 year -1 . Hence, mixing rather than sedimentation governs the distribution of 210 Pb and 228 Th in the surficial 20 cm. Below 20 cm, the different mixing regime may be due to the dominance of deposit-feeders at these depths. Evidence for bioturbation to a depth of 50 cm was obtained from profiles of excess 210 Pb and 228 Ra deficiency. The mean residence time of particles in the central bay water column was 10 ± 2 days (a normalized depositional particle flux of 0.16 ± 0.02 g cm -2 year -1 ). This flux is three times the upper estimate of the sediment accumulation rate, indicating that most of the suspended particulate matter in the water column is resuspended bottom sediment. Copyright (1997) CSIRO Publishing

  19. Global, regional, and subregional trends in unintended pregnancy and its outcomes from 1990 to 2014: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Bearak, PhD

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background: Estimates of pregnancy incidence by intention status and outcome indicate how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations, and can be used to monitor the impact of family-planning programmes. We estimate global, regional, and subregional pregnancy rates by intention status and outcome for 1990–2014. Methods: We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the unintended pregnancy rate is a function of the distribution of women across subgroups defined by marital status and contraceptive need and use, and of the risk of unintended pregnancy in each subgroup. Data included numbers of births and of women estimated by the UN Population Division, recently published abortion incidence estimates, and findings from surveys of women on the percentage of births or pregnancies that were unintended. Some 298 datapoints on the intention status of births or pregnancies were obtained for 105 countries. Findings: Worldwide, an estimated 44% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 42–48 of pregnancies were unintended in 2010–14. The unintended pregnancy rate declined by 30% (90% UI 21–39 in developed regions, from 64 (59–81 per 1000 women aged 15–44 years in 1990–94 to 45 (42–56 in 2010–14. In developing regions, the unintended pregnancy rate fell 16% (90% UI 5–24, from 77 (74–88 per 1000 women aged 15–44 years to 65 (62–76. Whereas the decline in the unintended pregnancy rate in developed regions coincided with a declining abortion rate, the decline in developing regions coincided with a declining unintended birth rate. In 2010–14, 59% (90% UI 54–65 of unintended pregnancies ended in abortion in developed regions, as did 55% (52–60 of unintended pregnancies in developing regions. Interpretation: The unintended pregnancy rate remains substantially higher in developing regions than in developed regions. Sexual and reproductive health services are needed to help women

  20. Estimate of the annual effective dose for natural radionuclides of anthropogenic origin in the Bay of Cadiz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigo, J. F.; Martinez-Ramos, C.; Barbero, L.; Casas-Ruiz, M.

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of radioactivity levels in soils has a double interest: on the one hand, allows you to set the reference values ??(base Linne) from a region or geographic area, and secondly, to evaluate the external radiation dose received by the population and biota, through appropriate dosimetric model. The natural radioactivity, especially the radionuclides in the natural series. The aim of this study is to determine the levels of gamma emitting radionuclides in marine sediments of the Bay of Cadiz, and dose rates from external radiation received in the areas studied. (Author)

  1. Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, Niel; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

    1998-01-01

    Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improve-ments in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR?s) for the study area. The HGMR?s are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC?s) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additi-onal data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water

  2. Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

    2018-01-01

    Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

  3. Estimating the chlorophyll content in the waters of Guanabara Bay from the LANDSAT multispectral scanning digital data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Bentancurt, J. J. V.; Herz, B. R.; Molion, L. B.

    1980-01-01

    Detection of water quality in Guanabara Bay using multispectral scanning digital data taken from LANDSAT satellites was examined. To test these processes, an empirical (statistical) approach was choosen to observe the degree of relationship between LANDSAT data and the in situ data taken simultaneously. The linear and nonlinear regression analyses were taken from among those developed by INPE in 1978. Results indicate that the major regression was in the number six MSS band, atmospheric effects, which indicated a correction coefficient of 0.99 and an average error of 6.59 micrograms liter. This error was similar to that obtained in the laboratory. The chlorophyll content was between 0 and 100 micrograms/liter, as taken from the MSS of LANDSAT.

  4. Estimation of past sea-level variations based on ground-penetrating radar mapping of beach-ridges - preliminary results from Feddet, Faxe Bay, eastern Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Nielsen, Lars; Clemmensen, Lars B

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of past sea-level variations based on different methods and techniques have been presented in a range of studies, including interpretation of beach ridge characteristics. In Denmark, Holocene beach ridge plains have been formed during the last c. 7700 years, a period characterised by both...... isostatic uplift and changes in eustatic sea-level, and therefore represent an archive of past relative sea-level variations. Here, we present preliminary results from investigation of beach ridges from Feddet, a small peninsula located in Faxe Bay (Baltic Sea) in the eastern part of Denmark. Feddet has...... been chosen as a key-locality in this project, as it is located relatively close to the current 0-isobase of isostatic rebound. GPR reflection data have been acquired with shielded 250 MHz Sensors & software antennae along a number of profile lines across beach ridge and swale structures of the Feddet...

  5. A real-time PCR assay to estimate invertebrate and fish predation on anchovy eggs in the Bay of Biscay

    KAUST Repository

    Albaina, A.

    2015-02-01

    In order to investigate the role of predation on eggs and larvae in the recruitment of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), sardine (Sardina pilchardus), sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and 52 macrozooplankton taxa were assayed for anchovy remains in the gut during the 2010 spawning season using a molecular method. This real-time PCR based assay was capable of detecting 0.005. ng of anchovy DNA (roughly 1/100 of a single egg assay) in a reliable way and allowed detecting predation events up to 6. h after ingestion by small zooplankton taxa. A total of 1069 macrozooplankton individuals, 237 sardines and 213 sprats were tested. Both fish species and 32 macrozooplankton taxa showed remains of anchovy DNA within their stomach contents. The two main findings are (1) that the previously neglected macrozooplankton impact in anchovy eggs/larvae mortality is in the same order of magnitude of that due to planktivorous fishes and that, (2) the predation pressure was notably different in the two main spawning centers of Bay of Biscay anchovy. While relatively low mortality rates were recorded at the shelf-break spawning center, a higher predation pressure from both fish and macrozooplankton was exerted at the shelf one.

  6. Bayes estimation of shape model with application to vertebrae boundaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crimi, Alessandro; Ghosh, Anarta; Sporring, Jon

    2009-01-01

    Estimation of the covariance matrix is a pivotal step in landmark based statistical shape analysis. For high dimensional representation of the shapes, often the number of available shape examples is far too small for reliable estimation of the covariance matrix by the traditionally used Maximum...

  7. Parameter Identification by Bayes Decision and Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1994-01-01

    The problem of parameter identification by Bayes point estimation using neural networks is investigated.......The problem of parameter identification by Bayes point estimation using neural networks is investigated....

  8. Estimates of Shear Stress and Measurements of Water Levels in the Lower Fox River near Green Bay, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.

    2006-01-01

    Turbulent shear stress in the boundary layer of a natural river system largely controls the deposition and resuspension of sediment, as well as the longevity and effectiveness of granular-material caps used to cover and isolate contaminated sediments. This report documents measurements and calculations made in order to estimate shear stress and shear velocity on the Lower Fox River, Wisconsin. Velocity profiles were generated using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) mounted on a moored vessel. This method of data collection yielded 158 velocity profiles on the Lower Fox River between June 2003 and November 2004. Of these profiles, 109 were classified as valid and were used to estimate the bottom shear stress and velocity using log-profile and turbulent kinetic energy methods. Estimated shear stress ranged from 0.09 to 10.8 dynes per centimeter squared. Estimated coefficients of friction ranged from 0.001 to 0.025. This report describes both the field and data-analysis methods used to estimate shear-stress parameters for the Lower Fox River. Summaries of the estimated values for bottom shear stress, shear velocity, and coefficient of friction are presented. Confidence intervals about the shear-stress estimates are provided.

  9. Understanding Aggregation and Estimating Seasonal Abundance of Chrysaora quinquecirrha Medusae from a Fixed-station Time Series in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, J.; Hood, R. R.

    2016-02-01

    Although jellyfish exert strong control over marine plankton dynamics (Richardson et al. 2009, Robison et al. 2014) and negatively impact human commercial and recreational activities (Purcell et al. 2007, Purcell 2012), jellyfish biomass is not well quantified due primarily to sampling difficulties with plankton nets or fisheries trawls (Haddock 2004). As a result, some of the longest records of jellyfish are visual shore-based surveys, such as the fixed-station time series of Chrysaora quinquecirrha that began in 1960 in the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay, USA (Cargo and King 1990). Time series counts from fixed-station surveys capture two signals: 1) demographic change at timescales on the order of reproductive processes and 2) spatial patchiness at shorter timescales as different parcels of water move in and out of the survey area by tidal and estuarine advection and turbulent mixing (Lee and McAlice 1979). In this study, our goal was to separate these two signals using a 4-year time series of C. quinquecirrha medusa counts from a fixed-station in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay. Idealized modeling of tidal and estuarine advection was used to conceptualize the sampling scheme. Change point and time series analysis was used to detect demographic changes. Indices of aggregation (Negative Binomial coefficient, Taylor's Power Law coefficient, and Morisita's Index) were calculated to describe the spatial patchiness of the medusae. Abundance estimates revealed a bloom cycle that differed in duration and magnitude for each of the study years. Indices of aggregation indicated that medusae were aggregated and that patches grew in the number of individuals, and likely in size, as abundance increased. Further inference from the conceptual modeling suggested that medusae patch structure was generally homogenous over the tidal extent. This study highlights the benefits of using fixed-station shore-based surveys for understanding the biology and ecology of jellyfish.

  10. A nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for large-scale multiple testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Ryan; Tokdar, Surya T

    2012-07-01

    We propose a flexible and identifiable version of the 2-groups model, motivated by hierarchical Bayes considerations, that features an empirical null and a semiparametric mixture model for the nonnull cases. We use a computationally efficient predictive recursion (PR) marginal likelihood procedure to estimate the model parameters, even the nonparametric mixing distribution. This leads to a nonparametric empirical Bayes testing procedure, which we call PRtest, based on thresholding the estimated local false discovery rates. Simulations and real data examples demonstrate that, compared to existing approaches, PRtest's careful handling of the nonnull density can give a much better fit in the tails of the mixture distribution which, in turn, can lead to more realistic conclusions.

  11. Utilization of high resolution satellite geoid data for estimation of lithospheric thickness in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Majumdar, T.J.; Bhattacharyya, R.; Chatterjee, S.; Krishna, K.S.

    been estimated using residual geoid data. In a similar fashion, the age offset from the age contours have been observed. (Figs. 5 a and b). Geoid models for ocean ridges and fracture zones If h(t) is the blope is the geoid as a function of seafloor... age, resulting from changes in seafloor depth and plate thickness due to cooling, then the quantity (∆h/age offset) estimated above is simply the derivative of h(t) with respect to age, where t is the mean age between two sides of a fracture8. From...

  12. Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

    2016-06-17

    Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for

  13. Uncertainty in perception and the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Daniel Mathys

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In its full sense, perception rests on an agent’s model of how its sensory input comes about and the inferences it draws based on this model. These inferences are necessarily uncertain. Here, we illustrate how the hierarchical Gaussian filter (HGF offers a principled and generic way to deal with the several forms that uncertainty in perception takes. The HGF is a recent derivation of one-step update equations from Bayesian principles that rests on a hierarchical generative model of the environment and its (instability. It is computationally highly efficient, allows for online estimates of hidden states, and has found numerous applications to experimental data from human subjects. In this paper, we generalize previous descriptions of the HGF and its account of perceptual uncertainty. First, we explicitly formulate the extension of the HGF’s hierarchy to any number of levels; second, we discuss how various forms of uncertainty are accommodated by the minimization of variational free energy as encoded in the update equations; third, we combine the HGF with decision models and demonstrate the inversion of this combination; finally, we report a simulation study that compared four optimization methods for inverting the HGF/decision model combination at different noise levels. These four methods (Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm, Gaussian process-based global optimization, variational Bayes and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling all performed well even under considerable noise, with variational Bayes offering the best combination of efficiency and informativeness of inference. Our results demonstrate that the HGF provides a principled, flexible, and efficient - but at the same time intuitive - framework for the resolution of perceptual uncertainty in behaving agents.

  14. Occurrence of organochlorine compounds in Euphausia superba and unhatched eggs of Pygoscelis genus penguins from Admiralty Bay (King George Island, Antarctica) and estimation of biomagnification factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipro, Caio V Z; Taniguchi, Satie; Montone, Rosalinda Carmela

    2010-02-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides are compounds that do not occur naturally in the environment and are not easily degraded by chemical or microbiological action. In the present work, those compounds were analysed in unhatched penguin eggs and whole krill collected in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica in the austral summers of 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. The compounds found in higher levels (in a wet weight basis) were, in most of the egg samples, the PCBs (2.53-78.7 ng g(-1)), DDTs (2.07-38.0 ng g(-1)) and HCB (4.99-39.1 ng g(-1)) and after Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, the occurrence seemed to be species-specific for the Pygoscelis genus. In all of the cases, the levels found were not higher than the ones in Arctic birds in a similar trophic level. The krill samples analysis allowed estimating the biomagnification factors (which resulted in up to 363 for HCB, one order of magnitude higher than DDTs and chlordanes and two orders of magnitude higher than the other groups) of the compounds found in eggs, whose only source of contamination is the female-offspring transfer. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Application of seismic interferometry to an exploration of subsurface structure by using microtremors. Estimation of deep ground structures in the Wakasa bay region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Hiroaki; Kuriyama, Masayuki; Higashi, Sadanori; Shiba, Yoshiaki; Okazaki, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    We carried out continuous measurements of microtremors to synthesize Green's function based on seismic interferometry in order to estimate deep subsurface structures of the Ohshima peninsula (OSM) and the Otomi peninsula (OTM) in the Wakasa bay region. Using more than 80 days of data, dispersive waveforms in the cross correlations were identified as a Green's function based on seismic interferometry. Rayleigh-wave phase velocities at OSM and OTM were estimated by two different method using microtremors: first, by analyzing microtremor array data, and second, by applying the f-k spectral analysis to synthesized Green's functions derived from cross-correlation with a common observation station. Relatively longer period of phase velocities were estimated by the f-k spectral analysis using the synthesized Green's functions with a common observation station. This suggests that the synthesized Green's functions from seismic interferometry can provide a valuable data for phase velocity inversion to estimate a deep subsurface structure. By identifying deep subsurface structures at OSM and OTM based on an inversion of phase velocity from both methods, the depth of S wave velocity of about 3.5 km/s, considered as a top of seismogenic layer, were determined to be 3.8 - 4.0 km at OSM and 4.4 - 4.6 km at OTM, respectively. Love- and Rayleigh-wave group velocities were estimated from the multiple filtering analysis of the synthesized Green's functions. From the comparison of observed surface wave group velocities and theoretical group velocities of OSM and OTM, we demonstrated that the observed group velocities were in good agreement with the average of theoretical group velocities calculated by identified deep subsurface structures at OSM and OTM. It is suggested that the deep subsurface structure of the shallow sea region between two peninsulas is continuous structure from OSM to OTM and that Love- and Rayleigh-wave group velocities using

  16. Estimation of parameters of radioactive environmental contamination in places of a burial objects in shallow Bays of Archipelago Novaya Zemlya on the data 2002-2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanets, O. V.; Borisov, A.M.; Ligaev, A.R.; Vladimirov, M.K.; Valyaev, A.N.

    2005-01-01

    . Therefore, represented information about the ecological situation in the region can be received only by radioactive monitoring data accompanied by the study of nature and geochemical parameters of the water area. At the same time, geochemical data for the upper layer of bottom sediments indicate the possibility of corrosion of containers in places of their burial in the Stepovoy and Abrosimov Bays. This conclusion is based on XRF data on the presence of corrosion elements in bottom sediments. Together with radioactivity data they call for a thorough investigation of corrosion processes in the environment of the buried object. Comparing the investigation data of 1992-1994 (received by Norwegian and Russian investigators) and data of 2002-2004 helped us to estimate a dynamic change in the average specific concentration of radionuclides in the areas of the submerged objects with solid radioactive waste in the shallow Bays of the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago and to get new data about really radioactive situation in this local region of the Arctic basin at present time

  17. Further Evaluation of Covariate Analysis using Empirical Bayes Estimates in Population Pharmacokinetics: the Perception of Shrinkage and Likelihood Ratio Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xu Steven; Yuan, Min; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Yan; Xu, Jinfeng; Pinheiro, Jose

    2017-01-01

    Covariate analysis based on population pharmacokinetics (PPK) is used to identify clinically relevant factors. The likelihood ratio test (LRT) based on nonlinear mixed effect model fits is currently recommended for covariate identification, whereas individual empirical Bayesian estimates (EBEs) are considered unreliable due to the presence of shrinkage. The objectives of this research were to investigate the type I error for LRT and EBE approaches, to confirm the similarity of power between the LRT and EBE approaches from a previous report and to explore the influence of shrinkage on LRT and EBE inferences. Using an oral one-compartment PK model with a single covariate impacting on clearance, we conducted a wide range of simulations according to a two-way factorial design. The results revealed that the EBE-based regression not only provided almost identical power for detecting a covariate effect, but also controlled the false positive rate better than the LRT approach. Shrinkage of EBEs is likely not the root cause for decrease in power or inflated false positive rate although the size of the covariate effect tends to be underestimated at high shrinkage. In summary, contrary to the current recommendations, EBEs may be a better choice for statistical tests in PPK covariate analysis compared to LRT. We proposed a three-step covariate modeling approach for population PK analysis to utilize the advantages of EBEs while overcoming their shortcomings, which allows not only markedly reducing the run time for population PK analysis, but also providing more accurate covariate tests.

  18. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  19. Mex Bay

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2015-02-23

    Feb 23, 2015 ... surveys to assess the vulnerability of the most important physical and eutrophication parameters along. El- Mex Bay coast. As a result of increasing population and industrial development, poorly untreated industrial waste, domestic sewage, shipping industry and agricultural runoff are being released to the.

  20. A comparison of morphological and molecular-based surveys to estimate the species richness of Chaetoceros and Thalassiosira (bacillariophyta, in the Bay of Fundy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E Hamsher

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to compare the ability of morphology and molecular-based surveys to estimate species richness for two species-rich diatom genera, Chaetoceros Ehrenb. and Thalassiosira Cleve, in the Bay of Fundy. Phytoplankton tows were collected from two sites at intervals over two years and subsampled for morphology-based surveys (2010, 2011, a culture-based DNA reference library (DRL; 2010, and a molecular-based survey (2011. The DRL and molecular-based survey utilized the 3' end of the RUBISCO large subunit (rbcL-3P to identify genetic species groups (based on 0.1% divergence in rbcL-3P, which were subsequently identified morphologically to allow comparisons to the morphology-based survey. Comparisons were compiled for the year (2011 by site (n = 2 and by season (n = 3. Of the 34 taxa included in the comparisons, 50% of taxa were common to both methods, 35% were unique to the molecular-based survey, and 12% were unique to the morphology-based survey, while the remaining 3% of taxa were unidentified genetic species groups. The morphology-based survey excelled at identifying rare taxa in individual tow subsamples, which were occasionally missed with the molecular approach used here, while the molecular methods (the DRL and molecular-based survey, uncovered nine cryptic species pairs and four previously overlooked species. The last mentioned were typically difficult to identify and were generically assigned to Thalassiosira spp. during the morphology-based survey. Therefore, for now we suggest a combined approach encompassing routine morphology-based surveys accompanied by periodic molecular-based surveys to monitor for cryptic and difficult to identify taxa. As sequencing technologies improve, molecular-based surveys should become routine, leading to a more accurate representation of species composition and richness in monitoring programs.

  1. Applied Bayesian hierarchical methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Congdon, P

    2010-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Posterior Inference from Bayes Formula . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling in Relation to Monte Carlo Methods: Obtaining Posterior...

  2. Joint genome-wide prediction in several populations accounting for randomness of genotypes: A hierarchical Bayes approach. I: Multivariate Gaussian priors for marker effects and derivation of the joint probability mass function of genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Carlos Alberto; Khare, Kshitij; Banerjee, Arunava; Elzo, Mauricio A

    2017-03-21

    It is important to consider heterogeneity of marker effects and allelic frequencies in across population genome-wide prediction studies. Moreover, all regression models used in genome-wide prediction overlook randomness of genotypes. In this study, a family of hierarchical Bayesian models to perform across population genome-wide prediction modeling genotypes as random variables and allowing population-specific effects for each marker was developed. Models shared a common structure and differed in the priors used and the assumption about residual variances (homogeneous or heterogeneous). Randomness of genotypes was accounted for by deriving the joint probability mass function of marker genotypes conditional on allelic frequencies and pedigree information. As a consequence, these models incorporated kinship and genotypic information that not only permitted to account for heterogeneity of allelic frequencies, but also to include individuals with missing genotypes at some or all loci without the need for previous imputation. This was possible because the non-observed fraction of the design matrix was treated as an unknown model parameter. For each model, a simpler version ignoring population structure, but still accounting for randomness of genotypes was proposed. Implementation of these models and computation of some criteria for model comparison were illustrated using two simulated datasets. Theoretical and computational issues along with possible applications, extensions and refinements were discussed. Some features of the models developed in this study make them promising for genome-wide prediction, the use of information contained in the probability distribution of genotypes is perhaps the most appealing. Further studies to assess the performance of the models proposed here and also to compare them with conventional models used in genome-wide prediction are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Load estimation and assessment of land-based pollution for Quanzhou Bay and their relevance to the Total Quantity Control of Pollutants Discharged into the Sea (TQCPS) Program in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, W. L.; Yang, S. Y.; Wang, J.; Xiao, J. M.; Lu, X. X.; Lin, J.; Huang, P.; Cai, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    The Total Quantity Control of Pollutants Discharged into the Sea (TQCPS) Program belonged to the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean in China, launched in 2008. As one of the most important and typical demonstration cases of the TQCPS Program, a full investigation of the land-based pollutions discharges around Quanzhou Bay, China developed the total input for three main environmental factors (NH3-N, TP, COD) which were estimated and quantified in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Combined with the trend of seawater quality changes in Quanzhou Bay in the same periods, the effects of the program's implementation were then evaluated. On the whole, by using the basic survey data and export coefficient method, the total amounts of NH3-N, TP and COD discharged into the bay were estimated to be approximately 888.3, 130.6 and 14527.4 t/a in 2008, and 1518.6, 558.8 and 19986.7 t/a in 2012, respectively, where the percentage of the discharge from domestic sources (46.5% in 2008 and 45.2% in 2012) was generally higher than that from the other sources. Based on the characteristic of geography and administrative division, the land areas around the bay were divided into three parts: the south coast region (SCR), the west coast region (WCR), and the north coast region (NCR). The SCR and WCR accounted for 59.2 and 35.4% of the COD loads, and 49.2 and 48.0% of NH3-N loads in 2008. The NCR contributed less of the industrial pollution, but most to domestic pollution (54.1%), followed by 26.2% in the SCR in 2012. The contributions of the discharge from different land areas to the pollution of Quanzhou Bay were found to be differed in 2008 and 2012. Due to the difference in the levels of the economic development among these three areas, the discharge of pollutants from the north coast was much lower than that from the other two parts in 2008; however, following our suggestion of the moderation and optimization of the industrial distribution and the sewage

  4. A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balzer, Laura B; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

    2018-01-01

    We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials are applied to learn about real-world implementation, sustainability, and population effects of interventions with proven individual-level efficacy. In these settings, individual-level outcomes are correlated due to shared cluster-level factors, including the exposure, as well as social or biological interactions between individuals. To flexibly and efficiently estimate the effect of a cluster-level exposure, we present two targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). The first TMLE is developed under a non-parametric causal model, which allows for arbitrary interactions between individuals within a cluster. These interactions include direct transmission of the outcome (i.e. contagion) and influence of one individual's covariates on another's outcome (i.e. covariate interference). The second TMLE is developed under a causal sub-model assuming the cluster-level and individual-specific covariates are sufficient to control for confounding. Simulations compare the alternative estimators and illustrate the potential gains from pairing individual-level risk factors and outcomes during estimation, while avoiding unwarranted assumptions. Our results suggest that estimation under the sub-model can result in bias and misleading inference in an observational setting. Incorporating working assumptions during estimation is more robust than assuming they hold in the underlying causal model. We illustrate our approach with an application to HIV prevention and treatment.

  5. Estimation and Simulation of Inter-station Green's Functions in the Beppu-Bay Area, Oita Prefecture, Southwest Japan: the Effect of Sedimentary Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashida, T.; Yoshimi, M.; Komatsu, M.; Takenaka, H.

    2017-12-01

    Continuous long-term observations of ambient noise (microseisms) were performed from August 2014 to February 2017 in the Beppu-Bay area, Oita prefecture, to investigate S-wave velocity structure of deep sedimentary basin (Hayashida et al., 2015SSJ; Yoshimi and Hayashida, 2017WCEE). The observation array consists of 12 broadband stations with an average spacing of 12 km. We applied the seismic interferometry technique to the ambient noise data and derived nine-component ambient noise cross-correlation functions (Z-R, Z-T, Z-Z, R-R, R-T, R-Z, T-R, T-T, and T-Z components) between 66 pairs of stations (distance of 6.4 km to 65.2 km). We assumed the stacked cross-correlation functions as "observed Green's functions" between two stations and estimated group velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves in the frequency between 0.2 and 0.5 Hz (Hayashida et al., 2017AGU-JpGU). Theoretical Green's functions for all stations pairs were also calculated using the finite difference method (HOT-FDM, Nakamura et al., 2012BSSA), with an existing three-dimensional basin structure model (J-SHIS V2) with land and seafloor topography and a seawater layer (Okunaka et al., 2016JpGU) and a newly constructed basin structure model of the target area (Yoshimi et al., 2017AGU). The comparisons between observed and simulated Green's functions generally show good agreements in the frequency range between 0.2 and 0.5 Hz. On the other hand, both observed and simulated Green's functions for some station pairs whose traverse lines run across the deeper part of the sedimentary basin (> 2000 m) show prominent later phases that might be generated and propagated inside the basin. This indicates that the understanding of the phase generation and propagation processes can be a key factor to validate the basin structure model and we investigated the characteristics of the later phases, such as its particle motions and arrival times, using observed and simulated Green's functions in detail. Acknowledgements

  6. Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Regions across the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashuba, Roxolana; Cha, YoonKyung; Alameddine, Ibrahim; Lee, Boknam; Cuffney, Thomas F.

    2010-01-01

    Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  8. Prediction of Solvent Physical Properties using the Hierarchical Clustering Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recently a QSAR (Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship) method, the hierarchical clustering method, was developed to estimate acute toxicity values for large, diverse datasets. This methodology has now been applied to the estimate solvent physical properties including sur...

  9. Bird surveys at McKinley Bay and Hutchison Bay, Northwest Territories, in 1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cornish, B J; Dickson, D L; Dickson, H L

    1992-03-01

    McKinley Bay is a shallow protected bay along the eastern Beaufort Sea coast which provides an important habitat for diving ducks. Since 1979, the bay has been the site of a winter harbor and support base for oil and gas exploraton in the Beaufort Sea. Aerial surveys for bird abundance and distribution were conducted in August 1991 as a continuation of long-term monitoring of birds in McKinley Bay and Hutchison Bay, a nearby area used as a control. The main objectives of the 1991 surveys were to expand the set of baseline data on natural annual fluctuations in diving duck numbers, and to determine if numbers of diving ducks had changed since the initial 1981-85 surveys. On the day with the best survey conditions, the population of diving ducks at McKinley bay was estimated at ca 32,000, significantly more than 1981-85. At Hutchison Bay, there were an estimated 11,000 ducks. As in previous years, large numbers of diving ducks were observed off Atkinson Point at the northwest corner of McKinley Bay, at the south end of the bay, and in the northeast corner near a long spit. Most divers in Hutchison Bay were at the west side. Diving ducks, primarily Oldsquaw and scoter, were the most abundant bird group in the study area. Observed distribution patterns of birds are discussed with reference to habitat preferences. 16 refs., 7 figs., 30 tabs.

  10. Applied Bayesian hierarchical methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Congdon, P

    2010-01-01

    .... It also incorporates BayesX code, which is particularly useful in nonlinear regression. To demonstrate MCMC sampling from first principles, the author includes worked examples using the R package...

  11. Catalysis with hierarchical zeolites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Martin Spangsberg; Taarning, Esben; Egeblad, Kresten

    2011-01-01

    Hierarchical (or mesoporous) zeolites have attracted significant attention during the first decade of the 21st century, and so far this interest continues to increase. There have already been several reviews giving detailed accounts of the developments emphasizing different aspects of this research...... topic. Until now, the main reason for developing hierarchical zeolites has been to achieve heterogeneous catalysts with improved performance but this particular facet has not yet been reviewed in detail. Thus, the present paper summaries and categorizes the catalytic studies utilizing hierarchical...... zeolites that have been reported hitherto. Prototypical examples from some of the different categories of catalytic reactions that have been studied using hierarchical zeolite catalysts are highlighted. This clearly illustrates the different ways that improved performance can be achieved with this family...

  12. Hierarchical Network Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomadsen, Tommy

    2005-01-01

    Communication networks are immensely important today, since both companies and individuals use numerous services that rely on them. This thesis considers the design of hierarchical (communication) networks. Hierarchical networks consist of layers of networks and are well-suited for coping...... with changing and increasing demands. Two-layer networks consist of one backbone network, which interconnects cluster networks. The clusters consist of nodes and links, which connect the nodes. One node in each cluster is a hub node, and the backbone interconnects the hub nodes of each cluster and thus...... the clusters. The design of hierarchical networks involves clustering of nodes, hub selection, and network design, i.e. selection of links and routing of ows. Hierarchical networks have been in use for decades, but integrated design of these networks has only been considered for very special types of networks...

  13. Micromechanics of hierarchical materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr.

    2012-01-01

    A short overview of micromechanical models of hierarchical materials (hybrid composites, biomaterials, fractal materials, etc.) is given. Several examples of the modeling of strength and damage in hierarchical materials are summarized, among them, 3D FE model of hybrid composites...... with nanoengineered matrix, fiber bundle model of UD composites with hierarchically clustered fibers and 3D multilevel model of wood considered as a gradient, cellular material with layered composite cell walls. The main areas of research in micromechanics of hierarchical materials are identified, among them......, the investigations of the effects of load redistribution between reinforcing elements at different scale levels, of the possibilities to control different material properties and to ensure synergy of strengthening effects at different scale levels and using the nanoreinforcement effects. The main future directions...

  14. Programming with Hierarchical Maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørbæk, Peter

    This report desribes the hierarchical maps used as a central data structure in the Corundum framework. We describe its most prominent features, ague for its usefulness and briefly describe some of the software prototypes implemented using the technology....

  15. Introduction into Hierarchical Matrices

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2013-12-05

    Hierarchical matrices allow us to reduce computational storage and cost from cubic to almost linear. This technique can be applied for solving PDEs, integral equations, matrix equations and approximation of large covariance and precision matrices.

  16. Introduction into Hierarchical Matrices

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Hierarchical matrices allow us to reduce computational storage and cost from cubic to almost linear. This technique can be applied for solving PDEs, integral equations, matrix equations and approximation of large covariance and precision matrices.

  17. Multicollinearity in hierarchical linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Han; Jiang, Shanhe; Land, Kenneth C

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates an ill-posed problem (multicollinearity) in Hierarchical Linear Models from both the data and the model perspectives. We propose an intuitive, effective approach to diagnosing the presence of multicollinearity and its remedies in this class of models. A simulation study demonstrates the impacts of multicollinearity on coefficient estimates, associated standard errors, and variance components at various levels of multicollinearity for finite sample sizes typical in social science studies. We further investigate the role multicollinearity plays at each level for estimation of coefficient parameters in terms of shrinkage. Based on these analyses, we recommend a top-down method for assessing multicollinearity in HLMs that first examines the contextual predictors (Level-2 in a two-level model) and then the individual predictors (Level-1) and uses the results for data collection, research problem redefinition, model re-specification, variable selection and estimation of a final model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Hierarchical screening for multiple mental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterham, Philip J; Calear, Alison L; Sunderland, Matthew; Carragher, Natacha; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

    2013-10-01

    There is a need for brief, accurate screening when assessing multiple mental disorders. Two-stage hierarchical screening, consisting of brief pre-screening followed by a battery of disorder-specific scales for those who meet diagnostic criteria, may increase the efficiency of screening without sacrificing precision. This study tested whether more efficient screening could be gained using two-stage hierarchical screening than by administering multiple separate tests. Two Australian adult samples (N=1990) with high rates of psychopathology were recruited using Facebook advertising to examine four methods of hierarchical screening for four mental disorders: major depressive disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, panic disorder and social phobia. Using K6 scores to determine whether full screening was required did not increase screening efficiency. However, pre-screening based on two decision tree approaches or item gating led to considerable reductions in the mean number of items presented per disorder screened, with estimated item reductions of up to 54%. The sensitivity of these hierarchical methods approached 100% relative to the full screening battery. Further testing of the hierarchical screening approach based on clinical criteria and in other samples is warranted. The results demonstrate that a two-phase hierarchical approach to screening multiple mental disorders leads to considerable increases efficiency gains without reducing accuracy. Screening programs should take advantage of prescreeners based on gating items or decision trees to reduce the burden on respondents. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klauer, Karl Christoph

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

  20. Parallel hierarchical radiosity rendering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, Michael [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    1993-07-01

    In this dissertation, the step-by-step development of a scalable parallel hierarchical radiosity renderer is documented. First, a new look is taken at the traditional radiosity equation, and a new form is presented in which the matrix of linear system coefficients is transformed into a symmetric matrix, thereby simplifying the problem and enabling a new solution technique to be applied. Next, the state-of-the-art hierarchical radiosity methods are examined for their suitability to parallel implementation, and scalability. Significant enhancements are also discovered which both improve their theoretical foundations and improve the images they generate. The resultant hierarchical radiosity algorithm is then examined for sources of parallelism, and for an architectural mapping. Several architectural mappings are discussed. A few key algorithmic changes are suggested during the process of making the algorithm parallel. Next, the performance, efficiency, and scalability of the algorithm are analyzed. The dissertation closes with a discussion of several ideas which have the potential to further enhance the hierarchical radiosity method, or provide an entirely new forum for the application of hierarchical methods.

  1. Neutrosophic Hierarchical Clustering Algoritms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rıdvan Şahin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Interval neutrosophic set (INS is a generalization of interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS, whose the membership and non-membership values of elements consist of fuzzy range, while single valued neutrosophic set (SVNS is regarded as extension of intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS. In this paper, we extend the hierarchical clustering techniques proposed for IFSs and IVIFSs to SVNSs and INSs respectively. Based on the traditional hierarchical clustering procedure, the single valued neutrosophic aggregation operator, and the basic distance measures between SVNSs, we define a single valued neutrosophic hierarchical clustering algorithm for clustering SVNSs. Then we extend the algorithm to classify an interval neutrosophic data. Finally, we present some numerical examples in order to show the effectiveness and availability of the developed clustering algorithms.

  2. Maximum a posteriori probability estimates in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helin, T; Burger, M

    2015-01-01

    A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic and difficult to analyse. Current inverse problem literature often approaches the problem by considering suitable point estimators for the task. Typically the choice is made between the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the conditional mean (CM) estimate. The benefits of either choice are not well-understood from the perspective of infinite-dimensional theory. Most importantly, there exists no general scheme regarding how to connect the topological description of a MAP estimate to a variational problem. The recent results by Dashti and others (Dashti et al 2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) resolve this issue for nonlinear inverse problems in Gaussian framework. In this work we improve the current understanding by introducing a novel concept called the weak MAP (wMAP) estimate. We show that any MAP estimate in the sense of Dashti et al (2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) is a wMAP estimate and, moreover, how the wMAP estimate connects to a variational formulation in general infinite-dimensional non-Gaussian problems. The variational formulation enables to study many properties of the infinite-dimensional MAP estimate that were earlier impossible to study. In a recent work by the authors (Burger and Lucka 2014 Maximum a posteriori estimates in linear inverse problems with logconcave priors are proper bayes estimators preprint) the MAP estimator was studied in the context of the Bayes cost method. Using Bregman distances, proper convex Bayes cost functions were introduced for which the MAP estimator is the Bayes estimator. Here, we generalize these results to the infinite-dimensional setting. Moreover, we discuss the implications of our results for some examples of prior models such as the Besov prior and hierarchical prior. (paper)

  3. Urban Greening Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information about the San Francisco Bay Water Quality Project (SFBWQP) Urban Greening Bay Area, a large-scale effort to re-envision urban landscapes to include green infrastructure (GI) making communities more livable and reducing stormwater runoff.

  4. Hierarchical Traces for Reduced NSM Memory Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Torbjørn S.

    This paper presents work on using hierarchical long term memory to reduce the memory requirements of nearest sequence memory (NSM) learning, a previously published, instance-based reinforcement learning algorithm. A hierarchical memory representation reduces the memory requirements by allowing traces to share common sub-sequences. We present moderated mechanisms for estimating discounted future rewards and for dealing with hidden state using hierarchical memory. We also present an experimental analysis of how the sub-sequence length affects the memory compression achieved and show that the reduced memory requirements do not effect the speed of learning. Finally, we analyse and discuss the persistence of the sub-sequences independent of specific trace instances.

  5. Hierarchical wave functions revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Dingping.

    1997-11-01

    We study the hierarchical wave functions on a sphere and on a torus. We simplify some wave functions on a sphere or a torus using the analytic properties of wave functions. The open question, the construction of the wave function for quasi electron excitation on a torus, is also solved in this paper. (author)

  6. Hierarchical Porous Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grote, Christopher John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-06-07

    Materials Design is often at the forefront of technological innovation. While there has always been a push to generate increasingly low density materials, such as aero or hydrogels, more recently the idea of bicontinuous structures has gone more into play. This review will cover some of the methods and applications for generating both porous, and hierarchically porous structures.

  7. The Hierarchical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Sofron

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on the hierarchical perspective, one of the methods for representing space that was used before the discovery of the Renaissance linear perspective. The hierarchical perspective has a more or less pronounced scientific character and its study offers us a clear image of the way the representatives of the cultures that developed it used to perceive the sensitive reality. This type of perspective is an original method of representing three-dimensional space on a flat surface, which characterises the art of Ancient Egypt and much of the art of the Middle Ages, being identified in the Eastern European Byzantine art, as well as in the Western European Pre-Romanesque and Romanesque art. At the same time, the hierarchical perspective is also present in naive painting and infantile drawing. Reminiscences of this method can be recognised also in the works of some precursors of the Italian Renaissance. The hierarchical perspective can be viewed as a subjective ranking criterion, according to which the elements are visually represented by taking into account their relevance within the image while perception is ignored. This paper aims to show how the main objective of the artists of those times was not to faithfully represent the objective reality, but rather to emphasize the essence of the world and its perennial aspects. This may represent a possible explanation for the refusal of perspective in the Egyptian, Romanesque and Byzantine painting, characterised by a marked two-dimensionality.

  8. The Validity Chlorophyll-a Estimation by Sun Induced Fluorescence in Estuarine Waters: An Analysis of Long-term (2003-2011) Water Quality Data from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Madrinan, Max Jacobo; Fischer, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Satellite observation of phytoplankton concentration or chlorophyll-a is an important characteristic, critically integral to monitoring coastal water quality. However, the optical properties of estuarine and coastal waters are highly variable and complex and pose a great challenge for accurate analysis. Constituents such as suspended solids and dissolved organic matter and the overlapping and uncorrelated absorptions in the blue region of the spectrum renders the blue-green ratio algorithms for estimating chlorophyll-a inaccurate. Measurement of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, on the other hand, which utilizes the near infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, may provide a better estimate of phytoplankton concentrations. While modelling and laboratory studies have illustrated both the utility and limitations of satellite baseline algorithms based on the sun induced chlorophyll fluorescence signal, few have examined the empirical validity of these algorithms using a comprehensive long term in situ data set. In an unprecedented analysis of a long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), we assess the validity of the FLH product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) against chlorophyll ]a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions within the estuary including water depth, distance from shore and structures and eight water quality parameters. From the 39 station for which data was derived, 22 stations showed significant correlations when the FLH product was matched with in situ chlorophyll-alpha data. The correlations (r2) for individual stations within Tampa Bay ranged between 0.67 (n=28, pless than 0.01) and-0.457 (n=12, p=.016), indicating that

  9. CAN A MODEL TRANSFERABILITY FRAMEWORK IMPROVE ECOSYSTEM SERVICE ESTIMATES? A CASE STUDY OF SOIL FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN TILLAMOOK BAY, OR, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budget constraints and policies that limit primary data collection have fueled a practice of transferring estimates (or models to generate estimates) of ecological endpoints from sites where primary data exists to sites where little to no primary data were collected. Whereas bene...

  10. Hierarchical species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

  11. BayesTwin: An R Package for Bayesian Inference of Item-Level Twin Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inga Schwabe

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available BayesTwin is an open-source R package that serves as a pipeline to the MCMC program JAGS to perform Bayesian inference on genetically-informative hierarchical twin data. Simultaneously to the biometric model, an item response theory (IRT measurement model is estimated, allowing analysis of the raw phenotypic (item-level data. The integration of such a measurement model is important since earlier research has shown that an analysis based on an aggregated measure (e.g., a sum-score based analysis can lead to an underestimation of heritability and the spurious finding of genotype-environment interactions. The package includes all common biometric and IRT models as well as functions that help plot relevant information or determine whether the analysis was performed well. Funding statement: Partly funded by the PROO grant 411-12-623 from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO.

  12. Hierarchically Structured Electrospun Fibers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-07

    in the natural lotus and silver ragwort leaves. Figure 4. Examples of electrospun bio-mimics of natural hierarchical structures. (A) Lotus leaf...B) pillared poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) electrospun fiber mimic; (C) silver ragwort leaf; (D) electrospun fiber mimic made from nylon 6 and...domains containing the protein in the surrounding EVA fibers [115]. A wide variety of core-shell fibers have been generated, including PCL/ gelatin

  13. Hierarchical video summarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratakonda, Krishna; Sezan, M. Ibrahim; Crinon, Regis J.

    1998-12-01

    We address the problem of key-frame summarization of vide in the absence of any a priori information about its content. This is a common problem that is encountered in home videos. We propose a hierarchical key-frame summarization algorithm where a coarse-to-fine key-frame summary is generated. A hierarchical key-frame summary facilitates multi-level browsing where the user can quickly discover the content of the video by accessing its coarsest but most compact summary and then view a desired segment of the video with increasingly more detail. At the finest level, the summary is generated on the basis of color features of video frames, using an extension of a recently proposed key-frame extraction algorithm. The finest level key-frames are recursively clustered using a novel pairwise K-means clustering approach with temporal consecutiveness constraint. We also address summarization of MPEG-2 compressed video without fully decoding the bitstream. We also propose efficient mechanisms that facilitate decoding the video when the hierarchical summary is utilized in browsing and playback of video segments starting at selected key-frames.

  14. Hierarchically Structured Electrospun Fibers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole E. Zander

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional electrospun nanofibers have a myriad of applications ranging from scaffolds for tissue engineering to components of biosensors and energy harvesting devices. The generally smooth one-dimensional structure of the fibers has stood as a limitation to several interesting novel applications. Control of fiber diameter, porosity and collector geometry will be briefly discussed, as will more traditional methods for controlling fiber morphology and fiber mat architecture. The remainder of the review will focus on new techniques to prepare hierarchically structured fibers. Fibers with hierarchical primary structures—including helical, buckled, and beads-on-a-string fibers, as well as fibers with secondary structures, such as nanopores, nanopillars, nanorods, and internally structured fibers and their applications—will be discussed. These new materials with helical/buckled morphology are expected to possess unique optical and mechanical properties with possible applications for negative refractive index materials, highly stretchable/high-tensile-strength materials, and components in microelectromechanical devices. Core-shell type fibers enable a much wider variety of materials to be electrospun and are expected to be widely applied in the sensing, drug delivery/controlled release fields, and in the encapsulation of live cells for biological applications. Materials with a hierarchical secondary structure are expected to provide new superhydrophobic and self-cleaning materials.

  15. Hyperspectral Estimation of the Chlorophyll Content in Short-Term and Long-Term Restorations of Mangrove in Quanzhou Bay Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiguo Dou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The chlorophyll content can indicate the general health of vegetation, and can be estimated from hyperspectral data. The aim of this study is to estimate the chlorophyll content of mangroves at different stages of restoration in a coastal wetland in Quanzhou, China, using proximal hyperspectral remote sensing techniques. We determine the hyperspectral reflectance of leaves from two mangrove species, Kandelia candel and Aegiceras corniculatum, from short-term and long-term restoration areas with a portable spectroradiometer. We also measure the leaf chlorophyll content (SPAD value. We use partial-least-squares stepwise regression to determine the relationships between the spectral reflectance and the chlorophyll content of the leaves, and establish two models, a full-wave-band spectrum model and a red-edge position regression model, to estimate the chlorophyll content of the mangroves. The coefficients of determination for the red-edge position model and the full-wave-band model exceed 0.72 and 0.82, respectively. The inverted chlorophyll contents are estimated more accurately for the long-term restoration mangroves than for the short-term restoration mangroves. Our results indicate that hyperspectral data can be used to estimate the chlorophyll content of mangroves at different stages of restoration, and could possibly be adapted to estimate biochemical constituents in leaves.

  16. The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camara Vincent A. R.

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results. It is shown that empirical Bayes reliability functions are in general sensitive to the choice of the loss function, and that the squared error loss does not always yield the best empirical Bayes reliability estimate.

  17. Context updates are hierarchical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Karl Ingason

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This squib studies the order in which elements are added to the shared context of interlocutors in a conversation. It focuses on context updates within one hierarchical structure and argues that structurally higher elements are entered into the context before lower elements, even if the structurally higher elements are pronounced after the lower elements. The crucial data are drawn from a comparison of relative clauses in two head-initial languages, English and Icelandic, and two head-final languages, Korean and Japanese. The findings have consequences for any theory of a dynamic semantics.

  18. Detecting Hierarchical Structure in Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2012-01-01

    Many real-world networks exhibit hierarchical organization. Previous models of hierarchies within relational data has focused on binary trees; however, for many networks it is unknown whether there is hierarchical structure, and if there is, a binary tree might not account well for it. We propose...... a generative Bayesian model that is able to infer whether hierarchies are present or not from a hypothesis space encompassing all types of hierarchical tree structures. For efficient inference we propose a collapsed Gibbs sampling procedure that jointly infers a partition and its hierarchical structure....... On synthetic and real data we demonstrate that our model can detect hierarchical structure leading to better link-prediction than competing models. Our model can be used to detect if a network exhibits hierarchical structure, thereby leading to a better comprehension and statistical account the network....

  19. Hierarchical quark mass matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasin, A.

    1998-02-01

    I define a set of conditions that the most general hierarchical Yukawa mass matrices have to satisfy so that the leading rotations in the diagonalization matrix are a pair of (2,3) and (1,2) rotations. In addition to Fritzsch structures, examples of such hierarchical structures include also matrices with (1,3) elements of the same order or even much larger than the (1,2) elements. Such matrices can be obtained in the framework of a flavor theory. To leading order, the values of the angle in the (2,3) plane (s 23 ) and the angle in the (1,2) plane (s 12 ) do not depend on the order in which they are taken when diagonalizing. We find that any of the Cabbibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix parametrizations that consist of at least one (1,2) and one (2,3) rotation may be suitable. In the particular case when the s 13 diagonalization angles are sufficiently small compared to the product s 12 s 23 , two special CKM parametrizations emerge: the R 12 R 23 R 12 parametrization follows with s 23 taken before the s 12 rotation, and vice versa for the R 23 R 12 R 23 parametrization. (author)

  20. Hierarchical partial order ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsen, Lars

    2008-01-01

    Assessing the potential impact on environmental and human health from the production and use of chemicals or from polluted sites involves a multi-criteria evaluation scheme. A priori several parameters are to address, e.g., production tonnage, specific release scenarios, geographical and site-specific factors in addition to various substance dependent parameters. Further socio-economic factors may be taken into consideration. The number of parameters to be included may well appear to be prohibitive for developing a sensible model. The study introduces hierarchical partial order ranking (HPOR) that remedies this problem. By HPOR the original parameters are initially grouped based on their mutual connection and a set of meta-descriptors is derived representing the ranking corresponding to the single groups of descriptors, respectively. A second partial order ranking is carried out based on the meta-descriptors, the final ranking being disclosed though average ranks. An illustrative example on the prioritisation of polluted sites is given. - Hierarchical partial order ranking of polluted sites has been developed for prioritization based on a large number of parameters

  1. Nested and Hierarchical Archimax copulas

    KAUST Repository

    Hofert, Marius; Huser, Raphaë l; Prasad, Avinash

    2017-01-01

    The class of Archimax copulas is generalized to nested and hierarchical Archimax copulas in several ways. First, nested extreme-value copulas or nested stable tail dependence functions are introduced to construct nested Archimax copulas based on a single frailty variable. Second, a hierarchical construction of d-norm generators is presented to construct hierarchical stable tail dependence functions and thus hierarchical extreme-value copulas. Moreover, one can, by itself or additionally, introduce nested frailties to extend Archimax copulas to nested Archimax copulas in a similar way as nested Archimedean copulas extend Archimedean copulas. Further results include a general formula for the density of Archimax copulas.

  2. Nested and Hierarchical Archimax copulas

    KAUST Repository

    Hofert, Marius

    2017-07-03

    The class of Archimax copulas is generalized to nested and hierarchical Archimax copulas in several ways. First, nested extreme-value copulas or nested stable tail dependence functions are introduced to construct nested Archimax copulas based on a single frailty variable. Second, a hierarchical construction of d-norm generators is presented to construct hierarchical stable tail dependence functions and thus hierarchical extreme-value copulas. Moreover, one can, by itself or additionally, introduce nested frailties to extend Archimax copulas to nested Archimax copulas in a similar way as nested Archimedean copulas extend Archimedean copulas. Further results include a general formula for the density of Archimax copulas.

  3. A meta-analysis accounting for sources of variability to estimate heat resistance reference parameters of bacteria using hierarchical Bayesian modeling: Estimation of D at 121.1 °C and pH 7, zT and zpH of Geobacillus stearothermophilus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigaux, Clémence; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Albert, Isabelle; Carlin, Frédéric

    2013-02-01

    Predicting microbial survival requires reference parameters for each micro-organism of concern. When data are abundant and publicly available, a meta-analysis is a useful approach for assessment of these parameters, which can be performed with hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Geobacillus stearothermophilus is a major agent of microbial spoilage of canned foods and is therefore a persistent problem in the food industry. The thermal inactivation parameters of G. stearothermophilus (D(ref), i.e.the decimal reduction time D at the reference temperature 121.1°C and pH 7.0, z(T) and z(pH)) were estimated from a large set of 430 D values mainly collected from scientific literature. Between-study variability hypotheses on the inactivation parameters D(ref), z(T) and z(pH) were explored, using three different hierarchical Bayesian models. Parameter estimations were made using Bayesian inference and the models were compared with a graphical and a Bayesian criterion. Results show the necessity to account for random effects associated with between-study variability. Assuming variability on D(ref), z(T) and z(pH), the resulting distributions for D(ref), z(T) and z(pH) led to a mean of 3.3 min for D(ref) (95% Credible Interval CI=[0.8; 9.6]), to a mean of 9.1°C for z(T) (CI=[5.4; 13.1]) and to a mean of 4.3 pH units for z(pH) (CI=[2.9; 6.3]), in the range pH 3 to pH 7.5. Results are also given separating variability and uncertainty in these distributions, as well as adjusted parametric distributions to facilitate further use of these results in aqueous canned foods such as canned vegetables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  5. eBay.com

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engholm, Ida

    2014-01-01

    Celebrated as one of the leading and most valuable brands in the world, eBay has acquired iconic status on par with century-old brands such as Coca-Cola and Disney. The eBay logo is now synonymous with the world’s leading online auction website, and its design is associated with the company...

  6. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  7. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-01-01

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

  8. Auto- and heterotrophic nanoplankton and filamentous bacteria of Guanabara Bay (RJ, Brazil: estimates of cell/filament numbers versus carbon content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane Severiano Santos

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Variations of nanoplankton (2-20 µm and filamentous bacteria (diameter: 0.5-2.0 µm of Guanabara Bay (RJ, Brazil are presented, considering cell density and carbon content of auto- and heterotrophs. Our goal is to contribute to future modeling of local trophic dynamics. Subsurface water samples were taken weekly during the year 2000 at two sites: Urca (close to the entrance, more saline, eutrophic and Ramos (inner area, less saline, hypertrophic. Microscopic analysis was done by epifluorescence and cell density was converted to biomass through cell biovolume. Total nanoplankton was about 10(8 cells.l-1 in most samples (>57%, and total filamentous bacteria densities varied from 10(5 to 10(8 fil.l-1. Autotroph density was one order of magnitude higher at Ramos, both for nanoplankton (Md: 10(8cells.l-1 at Ramos and 10(7cells.l-1 at Urca and for filamentous bacteria (Md: 10(6 fil.l-1 at Ramos and 10(5 fil.l-1 at Urca. The same was observed for autotrophic biomass (Md: 10³µgC.l-1 at Ramos and 10¹µgC.l-1 at Urca for nanoplankton; Md: 28µgC.l-1 at Ramos and 1.4µgC.l-1 at Urca for filamentous bacteria. The relative contribution of autotrophs increased after conversion to biomass. Seasonal variation was conspicuous for filamentous bacteria at both sites and for nanoplankton only at Ramos, with maximum autotrophic abundances during the rainy period (spring-summer.Variações do nanoplâncton (2-20µm e bactérias filamentosas (diâmetro: 0.5-2.0 µm da Baía de Guanabara (RJ, Brasil são apresentadas, considerando densidade celular e biomassa de autótrofos e heterótrofos. A meta deste trabalho é contribuir para uma futura modelagem da dinâmica trófica neste sistema. Amostras subsuperficiais de água foram coletadas semanalmente durante um ano em dois pontos: Urca (próximo à entrada, mais salino, eutrófico e Ramos (no interior, menos salino, hipertrófico. Foi feita análise por microscopia de epifluorescência, com densidade celular

  9. Hierarchical modularity in human brain functional networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Meunier

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The idea that complex systems have a hierarchical modular organization originates in the early 1960s and has recently attracted fresh support from quantitative studies of large scale, real-life networks. Here we investigate the hierarchical modular (or “modules-within-modules” decomposition of human brain functional networks, measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI in 18 healthy volunteers under no-task or resting conditions. We used a customized template to extract networks with more than 1800 regional nodes, and we applied a fast algorithm to identify nested modular structure at several hierarchical levels. We used mutual information, 0 < I < 1, to estimate the similarity of community structure of networks in different subjects, and to identify the individual network that is most representative of the group. Results show that human brain functional networks have a hierarchical modular organization with a fair degree of similarity between subjects, I=0.63. The largest 5 modules at the highest level of the hierarchy were medial occipital, lateral occipital, central, parieto-frontal and fronto-temporal systems; occipital modules demonstrated less sub-modular organization than modules comprising regions of multimodal association cortex. Connector nodes and hubs, with a key role in inter-modular connectivity, were also concentrated in association cortical areas. We conclude that methods are available for hierarchical modular decomposition of large numbers of high resolution brain functional networks using computationally expedient algorithms. This could enable future investigations of Simon's original hypothesis that hierarchy or near-decomposability of physical symbol systems is a critical design feature for their fast adaptivity to changing environmental conditions.

  10. Transmutations across hierarchical levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, R.V.

    1977-01-01

    The development of large-scale ecological models depends implicitly on a concept known as hierarchy theory which views biological systems in a series of hierarchical levels (i.e., organism, population, trophic level, ecosystem). The theory states that an explanation of a biological phenomenon is provided when it is shown to be the consequence of the activities of the system's components, which are themselves systems in the next lower level of the hierarchy. Thus, the behavior of a population is explained by the behavior of the organisms in the population. The initial step in any modeling project is, therefore, to identify the system components and the interactions between them. A series of examples of transmutations in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are presented to show how and why changes occur. The types of changes are summarized and possible implications of transmutation for hierarchy theory, for the modeler, and for the ecological theoretician are discussed

  11. Trees and Hierarchical Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Haeseler, Arndt

    1990-01-01

    The "raison d'etre" of hierarchical dustering theory stems from one basic phe­ nomenon: This is the notorious non-transitivity of similarity relations. In spite of the fact that very often two objects may be quite similar to a third without being that similar to each other, one still wants to dassify objects according to their similarity. This should be achieved by grouping them into a hierarchy of non-overlapping dusters such that any two objects in ~ne duster appear to be more related to each other than they are to objects outside this duster. In everyday life, as well as in essentially every field of scientific investigation, there is an urge to reduce complexity by recognizing and establishing reasonable das­ sification schemes. Unfortunately, this is counterbalanced by the experience of seemingly unavoidable deadlocks caused by the existence of sequences of objects, each comparatively similar to the next, but the last rather different from the first.

  12. Optimisation by hierarchical search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zintchenko, Ilia; Hastings, Matthew; Troyer, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Finding optimal values for a set of variables relative to a cost function gives rise to some of the hardest problems in physics, computer science and applied mathematics. Although often very simple in their formulation, these problems have a complex cost function landscape which prevents currently known algorithms from efficiently finding the global optimum. Countless techniques have been proposed to partially circumvent this problem, but an efficient method is yet to be found. We present a heuristic, general purpose approach to potentially improve the performance of conventional algorithms or special purpose hardware devices by optimising groups of variables in a hierarchical way. We apply this approach to problems in combinatorial optimisation, machine learning and other fields.

  13. How hierarchical is language use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Stefan L.; Bod, Rens; Christiansen, Morten H.

    2012-01-01

    It is generally assumed that hierarchical phrase structure plays a central role in human language. However, considerations of simplicity and evolutionary continuity suggest that hierarchical structure should not be invoked too hastily. Indeed, recent neurophysiological, behavioural and computational studies show that sequential sentence structure has considerable explanatory power and that hierarchical processing is often not involved. In this paper, we review evidence from the recent literature supporting the hypothesis that sequential structure may be fundamental to the comprehension, production and acquisition of human language. Moreover, we provide a preliminary sketch outlining a non-hierarchical model of language use and discuss its implications and testable predictions. If linguistic phenomena can be explained by sequential rather than hierarchical structure, this will have considerable impact in a wide range of fields, such as linguistics, ethology, cognitive neuroscience, psychology and computer science. PMID:22977157

  14. Empirical Bayes Approaches to Multivariate Fuzzy Partitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodbury, Max A.; Manton, Kenneth G.

    1991-01-01

    An empirical Bayes-maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented for the application of fuzzy partition models in describing high dimensional discrete response data. The model describes individuals in terms of partial membership in multiple latent categories that represent bounded discrete spaces. (SLD)

  15. Data supporting study of Ecosystem Metabolism in Pensacola Bay estuary

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — These files house the data collected during 2013 in lower Pensacola Bay. The data were used to estimate aquatic primary production and respiration. This dataset is...

  16. Canonical sound speed profile for the central Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Murty, T.V.R.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Somayajulu, Y.K.; Sastry, J.S.; De Figueiredo, R.J.P.

    Following Munk's canonical theory, an algorithm has been presented for computing sound channel parameters in the western and southern Bay of Bengal. The estimated canonical sound speed profile using these parameters has been compared with computed...

  17. The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent A. R. Camara

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results.

  18. Biscayne Bay Alongshore Epifauna

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Field studies to characterize the alongshore epifauna (shrimp, crabs, echinoderms, and small fishes) along the western shore of southern Biscayne Bay were started in...

  19. Bathymetry in Jobos Bay

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This image represents a 4x4 meter resolution bathymetric surface for Jobos Bay, Puerto Rico (in NAD83 UTM 19 North). The depth values are in meters referenced to the...

  20. Hammond Bay Biological Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Hammond Bay Biological Station (HBBS), located near Millersburg, Michigan, is a field station of the USGS Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC). HBBS was established by...

  1. Humboldt Bay Orthoimages

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set consists of 0.5-meter pixel resolution, four band orthoimages covering the Humboldt Bay area. An orthoimage is remotely sensed image data in which...

  2. Hierarchical Discriminant Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Di Lu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Internet of Things (IoT generates lots of high-dimensional sensor intelligent data. The processing of high-dimensional data (e.g., data visualization and data classification is very difficult, so it requires excellent subspace learning algorithms to learn a latent subspace to preserve the intrinsic structure of the high-dimensional data, and abandon the least useful information in the subsequent processing. In this context, many subspace learning algorithms have been presented. However, in the process of transforming the high-dimensional data into the low-dimensional space, the huge difference between the sum of inter-class distance and the sum of intra-class distance for distinct data may cause a bias problem. That means that the impact of intra-class distance is overwhelmed. To address this problem, we propose a novel algorithm called Hierarchical Discriminant Analysis (HDA. It minimizes the sum of intra-class distance first, and then maximizes the sum of inter-class distance. This proposed method balances the bias from the inter-class and that from the intra-class to achieve better performance. Extensive experiments are conducted on several benchmark face datasets. The results reveal that HDA obtains better performance than other dimensionality reduction algorithms.

  3. Hierarchical Linked Views

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erbacher, Robert; Frincke, Deb

    2007-07-02

    Coordinated views have proven critical to the development of effective visualization environments. This results from the fact that a single view or representation of the data cannot show all of the intricacies of a given data set. Additionally, users will often need to correlate more data parameters than can effectively be integrated into a single visual display. Typically, development of multiple-linked views results in an adhoc configuration of views and associated interactions. The hierarchical model we are proposing is geared towards more effective organization of such environments and the views they encompass. At the same time, this model can effectively integrate much of the prior work on interactive and visual frameworks. Additionally, we expand the concept of views to incorporate perceptual views. This is related to the fact that visual displays can have information encoded at various levels of focus. Thus, a global view of the display provides overall trends of the data while focusing in on individual elements provides detailed specifics. By integrating interaction and perception into a single model, we show how one impacts the other. Typically, interaction and perception are considered separately, however, when interaction is being considered at a fundamental level and allowed to direct/modify the visualization directly we must consider them simultaneously and how they impact one another.

  4. Robust Bayes Forecasting For Grouped Binary Data With Known Distortion Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Pashkevich, M.

    2004-01-01

    The paper is devoted the problem of robust forecasting for the beta-mixed hierarchical models of grouped binary data in the case of stochastic additive distortions of binary observations. In the case of known lower and upper bounds of the distortion intervals, a new robust minimax Bayes predictor is developed. The performance of the proposed forecasting technique is validated by computer simulationtadata.

  5. Direct hierarchical assembly of nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ting; Zhao, Yue; Thorkelsson, Kari

    2014-07-22

    The present invention provides hierarchical assemblies of a block copolymer, a bifunctional linking compound and a nanoparticle. The block copolymers form one micro-domain and the nanoparticles another micro-domain.

  6. Hierarchical materials: Background and perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2016-01-01

    Hierarchical design draws inspiration from analysis of biological materials and has opened new possibilities for enhancing performance and enabling new functionalities and extraordinary properties. With the development of nanotechnology, the necessary technological requirements for the manufactur...

  7. Functional annotation of hierarchical modularity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchana Padmanabhan

    Full Text Available In biological networks of molecular interactions in a cell, network motifs that are biologically relevant are also functionally coherent, or form functional modules. These functionally coherent modules combine in a hierarchical manner into larger, less cohesive subsystems, thus revealing one of the essential design principles of system-level cellular organization and function-hierarchical modularity. Arguably, hierarchical modularity has not been explicitly taken into consideration by most, if not all, functional annotation systems. As a result, the existing methods would often fail to assign a statistically significant functional coherence score to biologically relevant molecular machines. We developed a methodology for hierarchical functional annotation. Given the hierarchical taxonomy of functional concepts (e.g., Gene Ontology and the association of individual genes or proteins with these concepts (e.g., GO terms, our method will assign a Hierarchical Modularity Score (HMS to each node in the hierarchy of functional modules; the HMS score and its p-value measure functional coherence of each module in the hierarchy. While existing methods annotate each module with a set of "enriched" functional terms in a bag of genes, our complementary method provides the hierarchical functional annotation of the modules and their hierarchically organized components. A hierarchical organization of functional modules often comes as a bi-product of cluster analysis of gene expression data or protein interaction data. Otherwise, our method will automatically build such a hierarchy by directly incorporating the functional taxonomy information into the hierarchy search process and by allowing multi-functional genes to be part of more than one component in the hierarchy. In addition, its underlying HMS scoring metric ensures that functional specificity of the terms across different levels of the hierarchical taxonomy is properly treated. We have evaluated our

  8. Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuttle, William K.; Fourqurean, James W.; Cosby, Bernard J.; Zieman, Joseph C.; Robblee, Michael B.

    2000-01-01

    An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long‐term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central

  9. Hierarchical architecture of active knits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abel, Julianna; Luntz, Jonathan; Brei, Diann

    2013-01-01

    Nature eloquently utilizes hierarchical structures to form the world around us. Applying the hierarchical architecture paradigm to smart materials can provide a basis for a new genre of actuators which produce complex actuation motions. One promising example of cellular architecture—active knits—provides complex three-dimensional distributed actuation motions with expanded operational performance through a hierarchically organized structure. The hierarchical structure arranges a single fiber of active material, such as shape memory alloys (SMAs), into a cellular network of interlacing adjacent loops according to a knitting grid. This paper defines a four-level hierarchical classification of knit structures: the basic knit loop, knit patterns, grid patterns, and restructured grids. Each level of the hierarchy provides increased architectural complexity, resulting in expanded kinematic actuation motions of active knits. The range of kinematic actuation motions are displayed through experimental examples of different SMA active knits. The results from this paper illustrate and classify the ways in which each level of the hierarchical knit architecture leverages the performance of the base smart material to generate unique actuation motions, providing necessary insight to best exploit this new actuation paradigm. (paper)

  10. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  11. 75 FR 11837 - Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Commodity Credit Corporation Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative AGENCY...: Notice of availability of program funds for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative. SUMMARY: The... through the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative for agricultural producers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed...

  12. 33 CFR 100.124 - Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York. 100.124 Section 100.124 Navigation and Navigable... NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.124 Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York...

  13. bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2016-01-01

    We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

  14. bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hana Ševčíková

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.

  15. Hierarchical Ag mesostructures for single particle SERS substrate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Minwei, E-mail: xuminwei@xjtu.edu.cn; Zhang, Yin

    2017-01-30

    Highlights: • Hierarchical Ag mesostructures with the size of 250, 360 and 500 nm are synthesized via a seed-mediated approach. • The Ag mesostructures present the tailorable size and highly roughened surfaces. • The average enhancement factors for individual Ag mesostructures were estimated to be as high as 10{sup 6}. - Abstract: Hierarchical Ag mesostructures with highly rough surface morphology have been synthesized at room temperature through a simple seed-mediated approach. Electron microscopy characterizations indicate that the obtained Ag mesostructures exhibit a textured surface morphology with the flower-like architecture. Moreover, the particle size can be tailored easily in the range of 250–500 nm. For the growth process of the hierarchical Ag mesostructures, it is believed that the self-assembly mechanism is more reasonable rather than the epitaxial overgrowth of Ag seed. The oriented attachment of nanoparticles is revealed during the formation of Ag mesostructures. Single particle surface enhanced Raman spectra (sp-SERS) of crystal violet adsorbed on the hierarchical Ag mesostructures were measured. Results reveal that the hierarchical Ag mesostructures can be highly sensitive sp-SERS substrates with good reproducibility. The average enhancement factors for individual Ag mesostructures are estimated to be about 10{sup 6}.

  16. Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez

    2007-01-01

    A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...

  17. Chesapeake Bay under stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    According to extensive data obtained over its 13,000 km of shoreline, the Chesapeake Bay has been suffering a major, indeed unprecedented, reduction in submerged vegetation. Chesapeake Bay is alone in experiencing decline in submerged vegetation. Other estuary systems on the east coast of the United States are not so affected. These alarming results were obtained by the synthesis of the findings of numerous individual groups in addition to large consortium projects on the Chesapeake done over the past decade. R. J. Orth and R. A. Moore of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science pointed to the problem of the severe decline of submerged grasses on the Bay and along its tributaries. In a recent report, Orth and Moore note: “The decline, which began in the 1960's and accelerated in the 1970's, has affected all species in all areas. Many major river systems are now totally devoid of any rooted vegetation” (Science, 222, 51-53, 1983).

  18. Mobile Bay turbidity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crozier, G. F.; Schroeder, W. W.

    1978-01-01

    The termination of studies carried on for almost three years in the Mobile Bay area and adjacent continental shelf are reported. The initial results concentrating on the shelf and lower bay were presented in the interim report. The continued scope of work was designed to attempt a refinement of the mathematical model, assess the effectiveness of optical measurement of suspended particulate material and disseminate the acquired information. The optical characteristics of particulate solutions are affected by density gradients within the medium, density of the suspended particles, particle size, particle shape, particle quality, albedo, and the angle of refracted light. Several of these are discussed in detail.

  19. Deliberate change without hierarchical influence?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørskov, Sladjana; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2017-01-01

    reveals that deliberate change is indeed achievable in a non-hierarchical collaborative OSS community context. However, it presupposes the presence and active involvement of informal change agents. The paper identifies and specifies four key drivers for change agents’ influence. Originality....../value The findings contribute to organisational analysis by providing a deeper understanding of the importance of leadership in making deliberate change possible in non-hierarchical settings. It points to the importance of “change-by-conviction”, essentially based on voluntary behaviour. This can open the door...

  20. Status, trends, and changes in freshwater inflows to bay systems in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, W.H.; Mosier, J. G.; Bush, P.W.

    1997-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study to quantify current (1983–93) mean freshwater inflows to the six bay systems (open water and wetlands) in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area, to test for historical temporal trends in inflows, and to quantify historical and projected changes in inflows. The report also addresses the adequacy of existing data to estimate freshwater inflows.

  1. Geochemistry of sediments in the Back Bay and Yellowknife Bay of the Great Slave Lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mudroch, A.; Joshi, S.R.; Sutherland, D.; Mudroch, P.; Dickson, K.M.

    1989-01-01

    Gold mining activities have generated wastes with high concentrations of arsenic and zinc in the vicinity of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada. Some of the waste material has been discharged into Yellowknife Bay of Great Slave Lake. Concentrations of arsenic and zinc were determined in sediment cores collected at the depositional areas of Yellowknife Bay. Sedimentation rates were estimated using two different radiometric approaches: the depth profiles of cesium 137 and lead 210. Geochemical analysis of the sediment cores indicated input of similar material into sampling areas over the past 50 yr. Age profiles of the sediment constructed from the radionuclide measurements were used to determine historical trends of arsenic and zinc inputs into Yellowknife Bay. The historical record was in good agreement with implemented remedial actions and the usage patterns of both elements. 16 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  2. Richards Bay effluent pipeline

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lord, DA

    1986-07-01

    Full Text Available of major concern identified in the effluent are the large volume of byproduct calcium sulphate (phosphogypsum) which would smother marine life, high concentrations of fluoride highly toxic to marine life, heavy metals, chlorinated organic material... ........................ 9 THE RICHARDS BAY PIPELINE ........................................ 16 Environmental considerations ................................... 16 - Phosphogypsum disposal ................................... 16 - Effects of fluoride on locally occurring...

  3. Bayes and Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, F.

    2017-01-01

    The dissertation consists of research in three subjects in two themes—Bayes and networks: The first studies the posterior contraction rates for the Dirichlet-Laplace mixtures in a deconvolution setting (Chapter 1). The second subject regards the statistical inference in preferential attachment

  4. Modular networks with hierarchical organization

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Several networks occurring in real life have modular structures that are arranged in a hierarchical fashion. In this paper, we have proposed a model for such networks, using a stochastic generation method. Using this model we show that, the scaling relation between the clustering and degree of the nodes is not a necessary ...

  5. Hierarchical Microaggressions in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Kathryn; Anderson, Myron; Stewart, Saran

    2015-01-01

    Although there has been substantial research examining the effects of microaggressions in the public sphere, there has been little research that examines microaggressions in the workplace. This study explores the types of microaggressions that affect employees at universities. We coin the term "hierarchical microaggression" to represent…

  6. Sustainable development in the Hudson Bay/James Bay bioregion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    An overview is presented of projects planned for the James Bay/Hudson Bay region, and the expected environmental impacts of these projects. The watershed of James Bay and Hudson Bay covers well over one third of Canada, from southern Alberta to central Ontario to Baffin Island, as well as parts of north Dakota and Minnesota in the U.S.A. Hydroelectric power developments that change the timing and rate of flow of fresh water may cause changes in the nature and duration of ice cover, habitats of marine mammals, fish and migratory birds, currents into and out of Hudson Bay/James Bay, seasonal and annual loads of sediments and nutrients to marine ecosystems, and anadromous fish populations. Hydroelectric projects are proposed for the region by Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba. In January 1992, the Canadian Arctic Resources Committee (CARC), the Environmental Committee of Sanikuluaq, and the Rawson Academy of Arctic Science will launch the Hudson Bay/James Bay Bioregion Program, an independent initiative to apply an ecosystem approach to the region. Two main objectives are to provide a comprehensive assessment of the cumulative impacts of human activities on the marine and freshwater ecosystems of the Hudson Bay/James Bay bioregion, and to foster sustainable development by examining and proposing cooperative processes for decision making among governments, developers, aboriginal peoples and other stakeholders. 1 fig

  7. A fast EM algorithm for BayesA-like prediction of genomic breeding values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Sun

    Full Text Available Prediction accuracies of estimated breeding values for economically important traits are expected to benefit from genomic information. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP panels used in genomic prediction are increasing in density, but the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC estimation of SNP effects can be quite time consuming or slow to converge when a large number of SNPs are fitted simultaneously in a linear mixed model. Here we present an EM algorithm (termed "fastBayesA" without MCMC. This fastBayesA approach treats the variances of SNP effects as missing data and uses a joint posterior mode of effects compared to the commonly used BayesA which bases predictions on posterior means of effects. In each EM iteration, SNP effects are predicted as a linear combination of best linear unbiased predictions of breeding values from a mixed linear animal model that incorporates a weighted marker-based realized relationship matrix. Method fastBayesA converges after a few iterations to a joint posterior mode of SNP effects under the BayesA model. When applied to simulated quantitative traits with a range of genetic architectures, fastBayesA is shown to predict GEBV as accurately as BayesA but with less computing effort per SNP than BayesA. Method fastBayesA can be used as a computationally efficient substitute for BayesA, especially when an increasing number of markers bring unreasonable computational burden or slow convergence to MCMC approaches.

  8. Hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped carbon membranes

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Hong; Wu, Tao

    2017-01-01

    The present invention is a structure, method of making and method of use for a novel macroscopic hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped, nano-porous carbon membrane (HNDCMs) with asymmetric and hierarchical pore architecture that can be produced

  9. Tectonic framework of the Hanoe Bay area, southern Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wannaes, K.O.; Floden, T.

    1994-06-01

    The tectonic framework and the general geologic development of the Hanoe Bay, from the Scanian coast in the west to south of Oeland in the east, has been investigated by means of reflection seismic methods. The Hanoe Bay is in this paper subdivided into four areas of different geologic settings. These are: 1) The Hanoe Bay slope, which forms a southward dipping continuation of the rigid Blekinge coastal plain. 2) The eastward dipping Kalmarsund Slope, which southwards from Oeland forms the western part of the Paleozoic Baltic Syneclise. 3) The Mesozoic Hanoe Bay Halfgraben, which forms the central and southern parts of the Hanoe Bay. The ongoing subsidence of the Halfgraben is estimated to be in the order of 20-60 m during the Quaternary. 4) The Yoldia Structural Element, which forms a deformed, tilted and possibly rotated block of Paleozoic bedrock located east of the Hanoe Bay Halfgraben. Two tectonic phases dominate the post-Paleozoic development of the Hanoe Bay, these are: 1) The Early Kimmerian phase, which initiated subsidence and reactivated older faults. 2) The Late Cretaceous phase, which is the main subsidence phase of the Hanoe Bay Halfgraben. The tectonic fault pattern of the Hanoe Bay is dominated by three directions, i.e. NW-SE, NE-SW and WNW-ESE. The two main tectonic elements of the area are the Kullen-Christiansoe Ridge System (NW-SE) and the Bornholm Gat Tectonic Zone (NE-SW). Sinistral strike-slip movements in order of 2-3 km are interpreted to have occurred along the Bornholm Gat Tectonic Zone during the late Cretaceous. 20 refs, 19 figs

  10. Automatic Hierarchical Color Image Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Huang

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Organizing images into semantic categories can be extremely useful for content-based image retrieval and image annotation. Grouping images into semantic classes is a difficult problem, however. Image classification attempts to solve this hard problem by using low-level image features. In this paper, we propose a method for hierarchical classification of images via supervised learning. This scheme relies on using a good low-level feature and subsequently performing feature-space reconfiguration using singular value decomposition to reduce noise and dimensionality. We use the training data to obtain a hierarchical classification tree that can be used to categorize new images. Our experimental results suggest that this scheme not only performs better than standard nearest-neighbor techniques, but also has both storage and computational advantages.

  11. Hierarchical matrices algorithms and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Hackbusch, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    This self-contained monograph presents matrix algorithms and their analysis. The new technique enables not only the solution of linear systems but also the approximation of matrix functions, e.g., the matrix exponential. Other applications include the solution of matrix equations, e.g., the Lyapunov or Riccati equation. The required mathematical background can be found in the appendix. The numerical treatment of fully populated large-scale matrices is usually rather costly. However, the technique of hierarchical matrices makes it possible to store matrices and to perform matrix operations approximately with almost linear cost and a controllable degree of approximation error. For important classes of matrices, the computational cost increases only logarithmically with the approximation error. The operations provided include the matrix inversion and LU decomposition. Since large-scale linear algebra problems are standard in scientific computing, the subject of hierarchical matrices is of interest to scientists ...

  12. Hierarchical Semantic Model of Geovideo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XIE Xiao

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The public security incidents were getting increasingly challenging with regard to their new features, including multi-scale mobility, multistage dynamic evolution, as well as spatiotemporal concurrency and uncertainty in the complex urban environment. However, the existing video models, which were used/designed for independent archive or local analysis of surveillance video, have seriously inhibited emergency response to the urgent requirements.Aiming at the explicit representation of change mechanism in video, the paper proposed a novel hierarchical geovideo semantic model using UML. This model was characterized by the hierarchical representation of both data structure and semantics based on the change-oriented three domains (feature domain, process domain and event domain instead of overall semantic description of video streaming; combining both geographical semantics and video content semantics, in support of global semantic association between multiple geovideo data. The public security incidents by video surveillance are inspected as an example to illustrate the validity of this model.

  13. Hybrid and hierarchical composite materials

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Chang-Soo; Sano, Tomoko

    2015-01-01

    This book addresses a broad spectrum of areas in both hybrid materials and hierarchical composites, including recent development of processing technologies, structural designs, modern computer simulation techniques, and the relationships between the processing-structure-property-performance. Each topic is introduced at length with numerous  and detailed examples and over 150 illustrations.   In addition, the authors present a method of categorizing these materials, so that representative examples of all material classes are discussed.

  14. Hierarchical analysis of urban space

    OpenAIRE

    Kataeva, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Multi-level structure of urban space, multitude of subjects of its transformation, which follow asymmetric interests, multilevel system of institutions which regulate interaction in the "population business government -public organizations" system, determine the use of hierarchic approach to the analysis of urban space. The article observes theoretical justification of using this approach to study correlations and peculiarities of interaction in urban space as in an intricately organized syst...

  15. Statistical Significance for Hierarchical Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimes, Patrick K.; Liu, Yufeng; Hayes, D. Neil; Marron, J. S.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Cluster analysis has proved to be an invaluable tool for the exploratory and unsupervised analysis of high dimensional datasets. Among methods for clustering, hierarchical approaches have enjoyed substantial popularity in genomics and other fields for their ability to simultaneously uncover multiple layers of clustering structure. A critical and challenging question in cluster analysis is whether the identified clusters represent important underlying structure or are artifacts of natural sampling variation. Few approaches have been proposed for addressing this problem in the context of hierarchical clustering, for which the problem is further complicated by the natural tree structure of the partition, and the multiplicity of tests required to parse the layers of nested clusters. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo based approach for testing statistical significance in hierarchical clustering which addresses these issues. The approach is implemented as a sequential testing procedure guaranteeing control of the family-wise error rate. Theoretical justification is provided for our approach, and its power to detect true clustering structure is illustrated through several simulation studies and applications to two cancer gene expression datasets. PMID:28099990

  16. BCDC Bay Trail Alignment 2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Bay Trail provides easily accessible recreational opportunities for outdoor enthusiasts, including hikers, joggers, bicyclists and skaters. It also offers a...

  17. Bay-scale population structure in coastal Atlantic cod in Labrador and Newfoundland, Canada

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruzzante, D.E.; Wroblewski, J.S.; Taggart, C.T.

    2000-01-01

    Polymorphisms at five microsatellite DNA loci provide evidence that Atlantic cod Gadus morhua inhabiting Gilbert Bay, Labrador are genetically distinguishable from offshore cod on the north- east Newfoundland shelf and from inshore cod in Trinity Bay, Newfoundland. Antifreeze activity in the blood...... of population structure suggest that important barriers to gene flow exist among five components that include two inshore (Gilbert and Trinity Bay) and three offshore cod aggregations on the north-east Newfoundland Shelf and the Grand Bank. D-A and D-SW estimates of genetic distance that involve Gilbert Bay cod...

  18. Discharge, water-quality characteristics, and nutrient loads from McKay Bay, Delaney Creek, and East Bay, Tampa, Florida, 1991-1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoker, Y.E.; Levesque, V.A.; Fritz, E.M.

    1996-01-01

    Nutrient enrichment in Tampa Bay has caused a decline in water quality in the estuary. Efforts to reduce the nutrient loading to Tampa Bay have resulted in improvement in water quality from 1981 to 1991. However, Tampa Bay still is onsidered enriched with nutrients. Water quality in East Bay (located at the northeastern part of Hillsborough Bay, which is an embayment in Tampa Bay) is not improving at the same rate as the rest of the bay. East Bay is the center of shipping activity in Tampa Bay and the seventh largest port in the United States. One of the primary cargoes is phosphate ore and related products such as fertilizer. The potential for nutrient loading to East Bay from shipping activities is high and has not previously been measured. Nitrogen and phosphorus loads from East Bay to Hillsborough Bay were measured during selected time periods during June 1992 through May 1993; these data were used to estimate seasonal and annual loads. These loads were evaluated to determine whether the loss of fertilizer products from shipping activities resulted in increased nutrient loading to Hillsborough Bay. Discharge was measured, and water-quality samples were collected at the head of East Bay (exiting McKay Bay), and at the mouth of East Bay. Discharge and nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations for the period June 1992 through May 1993 were used to compute loads. Discharges from McKay Bay, Delaney Creek, and East Bay are highly variable because of the effect of tide. Flow patterns during discharge measurements generally were unidirectional in McKay Bay and Delaney Creek, but more complex, bidirectional patterns were observed at the mouth of East Bay. Tidally affected discharge data were digitally filtered with the Godin filter to remove the effects of tide so that residual, or net, discharge could be determined. Daily mean discharge from McKay Bay ranged from -1,900 to 2,420 cubic feet per second; from Delaney Creek, -3.8 to 162 cubic feet per second; and from East

  19. Humic Substances from Manila Bay and Bolinao Bay Sediments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elma Llaguno

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available The C,H,N composition of sedimentary humic acids (HA extracted from three sites in Manila Bay and six sites in Bolinao Bay yielded H/C atomic ratios of 1.1-1.4 and N/C atomic ratios of 0.09 - 0.16. The Manila Bay HA's had lower H/C and N/C ratios compared to those from Bolinao Bay. The IR spectra showed prominent aliphatic C-H and amide I and II bands. Manila Bay HA's also had less diverse molecular composition based on the GC-MS analysis of the CuO and alkaline permanganate oxidation products of the humic acids.

  20. Developing a Clustering-Based Empirical Bayes Analysis Method for Hotspot Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajie Zou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hotspot identification (HSID is a critical part of network-wide safety evaluations. Typical methods for ranking sites are often rooted in using the Empirical Bayes (EB method to estimate safety from both observed crash records and predicted crash frequency based on similar sites. The performance of the EB method is highly related to the selection of a reference group of sites (i.e., roadway segments or intersections similar to the target site from which safety performance functions (SPF used to predict crash frequency will be developed. As crash data often contain underlying heterogeneity that, in essence, can make them appear to be generated from distinct subpopulations, methods are needed to select similar sites in a principled manner. To overcome this possible heterogeneity problem, EB-based HSID methods that use common clustering methodologies (e.g., mixture models, K-means, and hierarchical clustering to select “similar” sites for building SPFs are developed. Performance of the clustering-based EB methods is then compared using real crash data. Here, HSID results, when computed on Texas undivided rural highway cash data, suggest that all three clustering-based EB analysis methods are preferred over the conventional statistical methods. Thus, properly classifying the road segments for heterogeneous crash data can further improve HSID accuracy.

  1. Thatcher Bay, Washington, Nearshore Restoration Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breems, Joel; Wyllie-Echeverria, Sandy; Grossman, Eric E.; Elliott, Joel

    2009-01-01

    The San Juan Archipelago, located at the confluence of the Puget Sound, the Straits of Juan de Fuca in Washington State, and the Straits of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, provides essential nearshore habitat for diverse salmonid, forage fish, and bird populations. With 408 miles of coastline, the San Juan Islands provide a significant portion of the available nearshore habitat for the greater Puget Sound and are an essential part of the regional efforts to restore Puget Sound (Puget Sound Shared Strategy 2005). The nearshore areas of the San Juan Islands provide a critical link between the terrestrial and marine environments. For this reason the focus on restoration and conservation of nearshore habitat in the San Juan Islands is of paramount importance. Wood-waste was a common by-product of historical lumber-milling operations. To date, relatively little attention has been given to the impact of historical lumber-milling operations in the San Juan Archipelago. Thatcher Bay, on Blakely Island, located near the east edge of the archipelago, is presented here as a case study on the restoration potential for a wood-waste contaminated nearshore area. Case study components include (1) a brief discussion of the history of milling operations. (2) an estimate of the location and amount of the current distribution of wood-waste at the site, (3) a preliminary examination of the impacts of wood-waste on benthic flora and fauna at the site, and (4) the presentation of several restoration alternatives for the site. The history of milling activity in Thatcher Bay began in 1879 with the construction of a mill in the southeastern part of the bay. Milling activity continued for more than 60 years, until the mill closed in 1942. Currently, the primary evidence of the historical milling operations is the presence of approximately 5,000 yd3 of wood-waste contaminated sediments. The distribution and thickness of residual wood-waste at the site was determined by using sediment

  2. Comparing hierarchical models via the marginalized deviance information criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Adrian; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2018-07-20

    Hierarchical models are extensively used in pharmacokinetics and longitudinal studies. When the estimation is performed from a Bayesian approach, model comparison is often based on the deviance information criterion (DIC). In hierarchical models with latent variables, there are several versions of this statistic: the conditional DIC (cDIC) that incorporates the latent variables in the focus of the analysis and the marginalized DIC (mDIC) that integrates them out. Regardless of the asymptotic and coherency difficulties of cDIC, this alternative is usually used in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for hierarchical models because of practical convenience. The mDIC criterion is more appropriate in most cases but requires integration of the likelihood, which is computationally demanding and not implemented in Bayesian software. Therefore, we consider a method to compute mDIC by generating replicate samples of the latent variables that need to be integrated out. This alternative can be easily conducted from the MCMC output of Bayesian packages and is widely applicable to hierarchical models in general. Additionally, we propose some approximations in order to reduce the computational complexity for large-sample situations. The method is illustrated with simulated data sets and 2 medical studies, evidencing that cDIC may be misleading whilst mDIC appears pertinent. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Long-term morphologic evolution of the Hangzhou Bay, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, W.; Zhijun, D.; Hualiang, X.

    2013-12-01

    Estuaries are the most productive ecosystems of coastal zones in the world, which are significant to mankind as places of navigation, recreation and commerce as well as extensive and diverse habitats for wildlife. However, most estuary environments in the world had occurred greatly changes in recent decades. These estuaries have suffered from impacts of forcing factors including wave climate, mean sea level change and storm surge, especial to the intensive human activities such as training wall construction, channel dredging, sand mining and dam constructions. Thus, there have been increasing concerns about estuary environment changes under effects of different factors. Riverine loads into the Changjiang Estuary have declined dramatically with the construction of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) in 2003. The morphological evolution of the Hangzhou bay that located the southern proximity of the Yangtze estuary starts to attract increasing attentions due to most material of the Hangzhou bay received from Yangtze estuary. In this paper, historical bathymetric charts were digitized and analyzed within a GIS to provide quantitative estimate of changes in volumes in different regions below 0 m elevation. The results show that Hangzhou bay has experienced a major loss in estuarine volume of about 15% with annual mean sediment deposition rate of 80 million m3/a during the last 75 years. However, there is a large-scale spatial adjustment in Hangzhou bay: Bathymetric changes of the Hangzhou bay can be rapidly shifted within the range of 8-10 classes. Volume of the Jinshanzui upstream of the Hangzhou bay has obviously decreased in the last 75 years, especially during 2003-2008. However, Volume of the southern Hangzhou bay has experienced slowly decrease with minor deposition. The northern Hangzhou bay had largely volume changes with rapidly decrease during 1931-1981, and drastically increase since 2003. Further analysis of the bathymetric data relating to possible factors indicates

  4. Hierarchal scalar and vector tetrahedra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webb, J.P.; Forghani, B.

    1993-01-01

    A new set of scalar and vector tetrahedral finite elements are presented. The elements are hierarchal, allowing mixing of polynomial orders; scalar orders up to 3 and vector orders up to 2 are defined. The vector elements impose tangential continuity on the field but not normal continuity, making them suitable for representing the vector electric or magnetic field. Further, the scalar and vector elements are such that they can easily be used in the same mesh, a requirement of many quasi-static formulations. Results are presented for two 50 Hz problems: the Bath Cube, and TEAM Problem 7

  5. Loops in hierarchical channel networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katifori, Eleni; Magnasco, Marcelo

    2012-02-01

    Nature provides us with many examples of planar distribution and structural networks having dense sets of closed loops. An archetype of this form of network organization is the vasculature of dicotyledonous leaves, which showcases a hierarchically-nested architecture. Although a number of methods have been proposed to measure aspects of the structure of such networks, a robust metric to quantify their hierarchical organization is still lacking. We present an algorithmic framework that allows mapping loopy networks to binary trees, preserving in the connectivity of the trees the architecture of the original graph. We apply this framework to investigate computer generated and natural graphs extracted from digitized images of dicotyledonous leaves and animal vasculature. We calculate various metrics on the corresponding trees and discuss the relationship of these quantities to the architectural organization of the original graphs. This algorithmic framework decouples the geometric information from the metric topology (connectivity and edge weight) and it ultimately allows us to perform a quantitative statistical comparison between predictions of theoretical models and naturally occurring loopy graphs.

  6. Hierarchically nested river landform sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasternack, G. B.; Weber, M. D.; Brown, R. A.; Baig, D.

    2017-12-01

    River corridors exhibit landforms nested within landforms repeatedly down spatial scales. In this study we developed, tested, and implemented a new way to create river classifications by mapping domains of fluvial processes with respect to the hierarchical organization of topographic complexity that drives fluvial dynamism. We tested this approach on flow convergence routing, a morphodynamic mechanism with different states depending on the structure of nondimensional topographic variability. Five nondimensional landform types with unique functionality (nozzle, wide bar, normal channel, constricted pool, and oversized) represent this process at any flow. When this typology is nested at base flow, bankfull, and floodprone scales it creates a system with up to 125 functional types. This shows how a single mechanism produces complex dynamism via nesting. Given the classification, we answered nine specific scientific questions to investigate the abundance, sequencing, and hierarchical nesting of these new landform types using a 35-km gravel/cobble river segment of the Yuba River in California. The nested structure of flow convergence routing landforms found in this study revealed that bankfull landforms are nested within specific floodprone valley landform types, and these types control bankfull morphodynamics during moderate to large floods. As a result, this study calls into question the prevailing theory that the bankfull channel of a gravel/cobble river is controlled by in-channel, bankfull, and/or small flood flows. Such flows are too small to initiate widespread sediment transport in a gravel/cobble river with topographic complexity.

  7. Stability of glassy hierarchical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, M.; Camargo-Forero, L.; Vicsek, T.

    2018-02-01

    The structure of interactions in most animal and human societies can be best represented by complex hierarchical networks. In order to maintain close-to-optimal function both stability and adaptability are necessary. Here we investigate the stability of hierarchical networks that emerge from the simulations of an organization type with an efficiency function reminiscent of the Hamiltonian of spin glasses. Using this quantitative approach we find a number of expected (from everyday observations) and highly non-trivial results for the obtained locally optimal networks, including, for example: (i) stability increases with growing efficiency and level of hierarchy; (ii) the same perturbation results in a larger change for more efficient states; (iii) networks with a lower level of hierarchy become more efficient after perturbation; (iv) due to the huge number of possible optimal states only a small fraction of them exhibit resilience and, finally, (v) ‘attacks’ targeting the nodes selectively (regarding their position in the hierarchy) can result in paradoxical outcomes.

  8. Hierarchical modeling of active materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taya, Minoru

    2003-01-01

    Intelligent (or smart) materials are increasingly becoming key materials for use in actuators and sensors. If an intelligent material is used as a sensor, it can be embedded in a variety of structure functioning as a health monitoring system to make their life longer with high reliability. If an intelligent material is used as an active material in an actuator, it plays a key role of making dynamic movement of the actuator under a set of stimuli. This talk intends to cover two different active materials in actuators, (1) piezoelectric laminate with FGM microstructure, (2) ferromagnetic shape memory alloy (FSMA). The advantage of using the FGM piezo laminate is to enhance its fatigue life while maintaining large bending displacement, while that of use in FSMA is its fast actuation while providing a large force and stroke capability. Use of hierarchical modeling of the above active materials is a key design step in optimizing its microstructure for enhancement of their performance. I will discuss briefly hierarchical modeling of the above two active materials. For FGM piezo laminate, we will use both micromechanical model and laminate theory, while for FSMA, the modeling interfacing nano-structure, microstructure and macro-behavior is discussed. (author)

  9. Hierarchical organisation of causal graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dziopa, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the design of a supervision system using a hierarchy of models formed by graphs, in which the variables are the nodes and the causal relations between the variables of the arcs. To obtain a representation of the variables evolutions which contains only the relevant features of their real evolutions, the causal relations are completed with qualitative transfer functions (QTFs) which produce roughly the behaviour of the classical transfer functions. Major improvements have been made in the building of the hierarchical organization. First, the basic variables of the uppermost level and the causal relations between them are chosen. The next graph is built by adding intermediary variables to the upper graph. When the undermost graph has been built, the transfer functions parameters corresponding to its causal relations are identified. The second task consists in the upwelling of the information from the undermost graph to the uppermost one. A fusion procedure of the causal relations has been designed to compute the QFTs relevant for each level. This procedure aims to reduce the number of parameters needed to represent an evolution at a high level of abstraction. These techniques have been applied to the hierarchical modelling of nuclear process. (authors). 8 refs., 12 figs

  10. HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

    2015-01-01

    Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

  11. Economics of wild salmon ecosystems: Bristol Bay, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Duffield; Christopher J. Neher; David A. Patterson; Oliver S. Goldsmith

    2007-01-01

    This paper provides an estimate of the economic value of wild salmon ecosystems in the major watershed of Bristol Bay, Alaska. The analysis utilizes both regional economic and social benefit-cost accounting frameworks. Key sectors analyzed include subsistence, commercial fishing, sport fishing, hunting, and nonconsumptive wildlife viewing and tourism. The mixed cash-...

  12. Bay of Fundy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    The highest tides on Earth occur in the Minas Basin, the eastern extremity of the Bay of Fundy, Nova Scotia, Canada, where the tide range can reach 16 meters when the various factors affecting the tides are in phase. The primary cause of the immense tides of Fundy is a resonance of the Bay of Fundy-Gulf of Maine system. The system is effectively bounded at this outer end by the edge of the continental shelf with its approximately 40:1 increase in depth. The system has a natural period of approximately 13 hours, which is close to the 12h25m period of the dominant lunar tide of the Atlantic Ocean. Like a father pushing his daughter on a swing, the gentle Atlantic tidal pulse pushes the waters of the Bay of Fundy-Gulf of Maine basin at nearly the optimum frequency to cause a large to-and-fro oscillation. The greatest slosh occurs at the head (northeast end) of the system. The high tide image (top) was acquired April 20, 2001, and the low tide image (bottom) was acquired September 30, 2002. The images cover an area of 16.5 by 21 km, and are centered near 64 degrees west longitude and 45.5 degrees north latitude. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying

  13. Intensity-based hierarchical elastic registration using approximating splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serifovic-Trbalic, Amira; Demirovic, Damir; Cattin, Philippe C

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a new hierarchical approach for elastic medical image registration using approximating splines. In order to obtain the dense deformation field, we employ Gaussian elastic body splines (GEBS) that incorporate anisotropic landmark errors and rotation information. Since the GEBS approach is based on a physical model in form of analytical solutions of the Navier equation, it can very well cope with the local as well as global deformations present in the images by varying the standard deviation of the Gaussian forces. The proposed GEBS approximating model is integrated into the elastic hierarchical image registration framework, which decomposes a nonrigid registration problem into numerous local rigid transformations. The approximating GEBS registration scheme incorporates anisotropic landmark errors as well as rotation information. The anisotropic landmark localization uncertainties can be estimated directly from the image data, and in this case, they represent the minimal stochastic localization error, i.e., the Cramér-Rao bound. The rotation information of each landmark obtained from the hierarchical procedure is transposed in an additional angular landmark, doubling the number of landmarks in the GEBS model. The modified hierarchical registration using the approximating GEBS model is applied to register 161 image pairs from a digital mammogram database. The obtained results are very encouraging, and the proposed approach significantly improved all registrations comparing the mean-square error in relation to approximating TPS with the rotation information. On artificially deformed breast images, the newly proposed method performed better than the state-of-the-art registration algorithm introduced by Rueckert et al. (IEEE Trans Med Imaging 18:712-721, 1999). The average error per breast tissue pixel was less than 2.23 pixels compared to 2.46 pixels for Rueckert's method. The proposed hierarchical elastic image registration approach incorporates the GEBS

  14. USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, K.K.; Cronin, T. M.; Crane, M.; Hansen, M.; Nayeghandi, A.; Swarzenski, P.; Edgar, T.; Brooks, G.R.; Suthard, B.; Hine, A.; Locker, S.; Willard, D.A.; Hastings, D.; Flower, B.; Hollander, D.; Larson, R.A.; Smith, K.

    2007-01-01

    Many of the nation's estuaries have been environmentally stressed since the turn of the 20th century and will continue to be impacted in the future. Tampa Bay, one the Gulf of Mexico's largest estuaries, exemplifies the threats that our estuaries face (EPA Report 2001, Tampa Bay Estuary Program-Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (TBEP-CCMP)). More than 2 million people live in the Tampa Bay watershed, and the population constitutes to grow. Demand for freshwater resources, conversion of undeveloped areas to resident and industrial uses, increases in storm-water runoff, and increased air pollution from urban and industrial sources are some of the known human activities that impact Tampa Bay. Beginning on 2001, additional anthropogenic modifications began in Tampa Bat including construction of an underwater gas pipeline and a desalinization plant, expansion of existing ports, and increased freshwater withdrawal from three major tributaries to the bay. In January of 2001, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) and its partners identifies a critical need for participation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in providing multidisciplinary expertise and a regional-scale, integrated science approach to address complex scientific research issue and critical scientific information gaps that are necessary for continued restoration and preservation of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay stakeholders identified several critical science gaps for which USGS expertise was needed (Yates et al. 2001). These critical science gaps fall under four topical categories (or system components): 1) water and sediment quality, 2) hydrodynamics, 3) geology and geomorphology, and 4) ecosystem structure and function. Scientists and resource managers participating in Tampa Bay studies recognize that it is no longer sufficient to simply examine each of these estuarine system components individually, Rather, the interrelation among system components must be understood to develop conceptual and

  15. Estimation de mouvement et segmentation
    Partie I : Estimation de mouvement par ondelettes spatio-temporelles adaptées au mouvement.
    Partie II : Segmentation et estimation de mouvement par modèles de Markov cachés et approche bayésienne dans les domaines direct et ondelette.

    OpenAIRE

    Brault , Patrice

    2005-01-01

    The first part of this thesis presents a new vision of the motion estimation problem, and hence of the compression of video sequences. On onehand, we have chosen to investigate motion estimation from redundant wavelet families tuned to different kind of transformations and, in particular,to speed. These families, not well known, have already been studied in the framework of target tracking. On the other hand, today video standards,like MPEG4, are supposed to realize the compression in an obje...

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of mobility metrics for hazard model input calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Ogburn, Sarah; Spiller, Elaine; Rutarindwa, Regis; Berger, Jim

    2015-04-01

    In this work we present a method to constrain flow mobility input parameters for pyroclastic flow models using hierarchical Bayes modeling of standard mobility metrics such as H/L and flow volume etc. The advantage of hierarchical modeling is that it can leverage the information in global dataset for a particular mobility metric in order to reduce the uncertainty in modeling of an individual volcano, especially important where individual volcanoes have only sparse datasets. We use compiled pyroclastic flow runout data from Colima, Merapi, Soufriere Hills, Unzen and Semeru volcanoes, presented in an open-source database FlowDat (https://vhub.org/groups/massflowdatabase). While the exact relationship between flow volume and friction varies somewhat between volcanoes, dome collapse flows originating from the same volcano exhibit similar mobility relationships. Instead of fitting separate regression models for each volcano dataset, we use a variation of the hierarchical linear model (Kass and Steffey, 1989). The model presents a hierarchical structure with two levels; all dome collapse flows and dome collapse flows at specific volcanoes. The hierarchical model allows us to assume that the flows at specific volcanoes share a common distribution of regression slopes, then solves for that distribution. We present comparisons of the 95% confidence intervals on the individual regression lines for the data set from each volcano as well as those obtained from the hierarchical model. The results clearly demonstrate the advantage of considering global datasets using this technique. The technique developed is demonstrated here for mobility metrics, but can be applied to many other global datasets of volcanic parameters. In particular, such methods can provide a means to better contain parameters for volcanoes for which we only have sparse data, a ubiquitous problem in volcanology.

  17. Bayes Empirical Bayes Inference of Amino Acid Sites Under Positive Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Ziheng; Wong, Wendy Shuk Wan; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2005-01-01

    , with > 1 indicating positive selection. Statistical distributions are used to model the variation in among sites, allowing a subset of sites to have > 1 while the rest of the sequence may be under purifying selection with ... probabilities that a site comes from the site class with > 1. Current implementations, however, use the naive EB (NEB) approach and fail to account for sampling errors in maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters, such as the proportions and ratios for the site classes. In small data sets lacking...... information, this approach may lead to unreliable posterior probability calculations. In this paper, we develop a Bayes empirical Bayes (BEB) approach to the problem, which assigns a prior to the model parameters and integrates over their uncertainties. We compare the new and old methods on real and simulated...

  18. Evaluating Bay Area Methane Emission Inventory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, Marc [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Jeong, Seongeun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-03-01

    As a regulatory agency, evaluating and improving estimates of methane (CH4) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area is an area of interest to the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD). Currently, regional, state, and federal agencies generally estimate methane emissions using bottom-up inventory methods that rely on a combination of activity data, emission factors, biogeochemical models and other information. Recent atmospheric top-down measurement estimates of methane emissions for the US as a whole (e.g., Miller et al., 2013) and in California (e.g., Jeong et al., 2013; Peischl et al., 2013) have shown inventories underestimate total methane emissions by ~ 50% in many areas of California, including the SF Bay Area (Fairley and Fischer, 2015). The goal of this research is to provide information to help improve methane emission estimates for the San Francisco Bay Area. The research effort builds upon our previous work that produced methane emission maps for each of the major source sectors as part of the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) project (http://calgem.lbl.gov/prior_emission.html; Jeong et al., 2012; Jeong et al., 2013; Jeong et al., 2014). Working with BAAQMD, we evaluate the existing inventory in light of recently published literature and revise the CALGEM CH4 emission maps to provide better specificity for BAAQMD. We also suggest further research that will improve emission estimates. To accomplish the goals, we reviewed the current BAAQMD inventory, and compared its method with those from the state inventory from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the CALGEM inventory, and recent published literature. We also updated activity data (e.g., livestock statistics) to reflect recent changes and to better represent spatial information. Then, we produced spatially explicit CH4 emission estimates on the 1-km modeling grid used by BAAQMD. We present the detailed activity data, methods and derived emission maps by sector

  19. Distributed hierarchical radiation monitoring system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barak, D.

    1985-01-01

    A solution to the problem of monitoring the radiation levels in and around a nuclear facility is presented in this paper. This is a private case of a large scale general purpose data acqisition system with high reliability, availability and short maintenance time. The physical layout of the detectors in the plant, and the strict control demands dictated a distributed and hierarchical system. The system is comprised of three levels, each level contains modules. Level one contains the Control modules which collects data from groups of detectors and executes emergency local control tasks. In level two are the Group controllers which concentrate data from the Control modules, and enable local display and communication. The system computer is in level three, enabling the plant operator to receive information from the detectors and execute control tasks. The described system was built and is operating successfully for about two years. (author)

  20. Hierarchical Control for Smart Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trangbæk, K; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2011-01-01

    of autonomous consumers. The control system is tasked with balancing electric power production and consumption within the smart grid, and makes active use of the flexibility of a large number of power producing and/or power consuming units. The objective is to accommodate the load variation on the grid, arising......This paper deals with hierarchical model predictive control (MPC) of smart grid systems. The design consists of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, which reduces the computational and communication-related load on the high-level control, and a lower level...... on one hand from varying consumption, and on the other hand by natural variations in power production e.g. from wind turbines. The high-level MPC problem is solved using quadratic optimisation, while the aggregator level can either involve quadratic optimisation or simple sorting-based min-max solutions...

  1. Silver Films with Hierarchical Chirality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Liguo; Cao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Yingying; Han, Lu; Che, Shunai

    2017-07-17

    Physical fabrication of chiral metallic films usually results in singular or large-sized chirality, restricting the optical asymmetric responses to long electromagnetic wavelengths. The chiral molecule-induced formation of silver films prepared chemically on a copper substrate through a redox reaction is presented. Three levels of chirality were identified: primary twisted nanoflakes with atomic crystal lattices, secondary helical stacking of these nanoflakes to form nanoplates, and tertiary micrometer-sized circinates consisting of chiral arranged nanoplates. The chiral Ag films exhibited multiple plasmonic absorption- and scattering-based optical activities at UV/Vis wavelengths based on their hierarchical chirality. The Ag films showed chiral selectivity for amino acids in catalytic electrochemical reactions, which originated from their primary atomic crystal lattices. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Hierarchical coarse-graining transform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancaldi, Vera; King, Peter R; Christensen, Kim

    2009-03-01

    We present a hierarchical transform that can be applied to Laplace-like differential equations such as Darcy's equation for single-phase flow in a porous medium. A finite-difference discretization scheme is used to set the equation in the form of an eigenvalue problem. Within the formalism suggested, the pressure field is decomposed into an average value and fluctuations of different kinds and at different scales. The application of the transform to the equation allows us to calculate the unknown pressure with a varying level of detail. A procedure is suggested to localize important features in the pressure field based only on the fine-scale permeability, and hence we develop a form of adaptive coarse graining. The formalism and method are described and demonstrated using two synthetic toy problems.

  3. Estimativas de repetibilidades e herdabilidades para produção de ovos e pintos com acasalamentos hierárquicos em galinhas para corte Repeatability and heritability estimates for egg and chick production, with hierarchical matings, in meat-type chickens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RANDOLFO WILLIAM SILVESTRE CUSTÓDIO

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available Foram estimadas repetibilidades (r e herdabilidades (h² de características reprodutivas de três populações de galinhas para corte do Setor de Aves da ESALQ/USP Piracicaba, SP. Cento e quinze galinhas foram inseminadas segundo um esquema hierárquico, com sêmen de 23 galos amostrados das populações I, II e III no experimento E1 e de outros 23 galos no experimento E2. Foram utilizadas quatro incubações, ou blocos, em cada experimento. Estimativas de r e h² foram obtidas dentro de experimento, pela análise de variância de médias de galinha em cada incubação. As estimativas de r da produção de ovos (POST foram significativas (P0,05 e 0,26±0,17 no E2 (PRepeatability (r and heritability (h² for reproductive traits were estimated from three meat-type chicken populations. One hundred and fifteen females were inseminated with semen of 23 males from three populations under a hierarchical mating system in a first experiment (E1 and with other 23 males in a second experiment (E2. Four hatches, or blocks, were produced for each experiment. Estimates of r and h² were obtained by analyses of variance among males, and among females within males within populations and experiments, performed with averages per hen in each hatch. Repeatabilities for egg production (POST were significant (P0.05 and 0.26±0.17 (P<0.05. For hatchability of all eggs set (NASC, the h² (P<0.05 based on male components were equal to 0.18±0.15 (E1 and 0.26±0.17 (E2. The h² estimated from dam components were larger and significant (P<0.01. The dam estimates for ECLOD were 0.77±0.09 and 0.48±0.20 for E1 and E2 respectively, and for NASC, 0.58±0.21 (E1 and 0.48±0.20 (E2. The results confirm that ECLOD and NASC tend to present low additive genetic variability.

  4. Synoptic volumetric variations and flushing of the Tampa Bay estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, M.; Meyers, S. D.; Luther, M. E.

    2014-03-01

    Two types of analyses are used to investigate the synoptic wind-driven flushing of Tampa Bay in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from 1950 to 2007. Hourly sea level elevations from the St. Petersburg tide gauge, and wind speed and direction from three different sites around Tampa Bay are used for the study. The zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components are rotated clockwise by 40° to obtain axial and co-axial components according to the layout of the bay. First, we use the subtidal observed water level as a proxy for mean tidal height to estimate the rate of volumetric bay outflow. Second, we use wavelet analysis to bandpass sea level and wind data in the time-frequency domain to isolate the synoptic sea level and surface wind variance. For both analyses the long-term monthly climatology is removed and we focus on the volumetric and wavelet variance anomalies. The overall correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index and volumetric analysis is small due to the seasonal dependence of the ENSO response. The mean monthly climatology between the synoptic wavelet variance of elevation and axial winds are in close agreement. During the winter, El Niño (La Niña) increases (decreases) the synoptic variability, but decreases (increases) it during the summer. The difference in winter El Niño/La Niña wavelet variances is about 20 % of the climatological value, meaning that ENSO can swing the synoptic flushing of the bay by 0.22 bay volumes per month. These changes in circulation associated with synoptic variability have the potential to impact mixing and transport within the bay.

  5. Plant diversity and biomass of Marudu bay mangroves in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanum, F.; Kudus, K.A.; Saari, N.S

    2012-01-01

    The mangroves of Marudu Bay in the state of Sabah is situated at the tip of Borneo Island, and at the southern limit of the Coral Triangle whose waters hold the highest diversity of corals, fish, molluscks, crustaceans and marine plant species in the world. The ecosystem shows a deterioration due to unsustainable fishing, pollution and encroachment, and these are impacting the Marudu Bay coastal communities economically. Fishing is the major economic activity here. Realising the importance of conserving the mangroves to uplift the socio-economic livelihood of the coastal community, a resource inventory of the mangroves and its productivity study were carried out. A total of 16 plant species in 12 genera and 9 families were identified. It was also found that 0.7 ha is capable of capturing all the species in the mangrove forest. The mangrove forests of Marudu Bay are dominated by Rhizopora apiculata and R. mucronata. The highest Importance Value index (IVI) was given by Rhizophora mucronata. Total Above Ground Biomass (TAGB) for 1-ha of mangrove forest in Marudu Bay was estimated to be 98.4 t/ha. It was found in other parallel studies that the mangroves of Marudu Bay are productive ecosystems that provide valuable habitats, nurseries and spawning grounds for various commercially important species of fish and invertebrates such as shrimp besides many species of wildlife. The mangroves at Marudu Bay are not only aesthetically attractive but provide opportunities for ecotourism activities that can be undertaken by the local community inhabiting the area to uplift their meagre income, These activities include mangrove cruising, recreational fishing, educational tourism and mangrove honey production, amongst others. This way, the degradation of the mangrove in Marudu Bay can be halted and reversed. (author)

  6. Adaptive hierarchical multi-agent organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghijsen, M.; Jansweijer, W.N.H.; Wielinga, B.J.; Babuška, R.; Groen, F.C.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this chapter, we discuss the design of adaptive hierarchical organizations for multi-agent systems (MAS). Hierarchical organizations have a number of advantages such as their ability to handle complex problems and their scalability to large organizations. By introducing adaptivity in the

  7. The Case for a Hierarchical Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaucouleurs, G. de

    1970-01-01

    The development of modern theoretical cosmology is presented and some questionable assumptions of orthodox cosmology are pointed out. Suggests that recent observations indicate that hierarchical clustering is a basic factor in cosmology. The implications of hierarchical models of the universe are considered. Bibliography. (LC)

  8. Discovering hierarchical structure in normal relational data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    -parametric generative model for hierarchical clustering of similarity based on multifurcating Gibbs fragmentation trees. This allows us to infer and display the posterior distribution of hierarchical structures that comply with the data. We demonstrate the utility of our method on synthetic data and data of functional...

  9. Biased trapping issue on weighted hierarchical networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    archical networks which are based on the classic scale-free hierarchical networks. ... Weighted hierarchical networks; weight-dependent walks; mean first passage ..... The weighted networks can mimic some real-world natural and social systems to ... the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education ...

  10. Lavaca Bay 1985-1987

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Samples were collected from October 15, 1985 through June 12, 1987 in emergent marsh and non-vegetated habitats throughout the Lavaca Bay system to characterize...

  11. FL BAY SPECTROUT-DIET

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Juvenile spotted seatrout and other sportfish are being monitored annually over a 6-mo period in Florida Bay to assess their abundance over time relative to...

  12. Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2012-01-01

    A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

  13. Hierarchically Nanostructured Materials for Sustainable Environmental Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng eRen

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a comprehensive overview of the hierarchical nanostructured materials with either geometry or composition complexity in environmental applications. The hierarchical nanostructures offer advantages of high surface area, synergistic interactions and multiple functionalities towards water remediation, environmental gas sensing and monitoring as well as catalytic gas treatment. Recent advances in synthetic strategies for various hierarchical morphologies such as hollow spheres and urchin-shaped architectures have been reviewed. In addition to the chemical synthesis, the physical mechanisms associated with the materials design and device fabrication have been discussed for each specific application. The development and application of hierarchical complex perovskite oxide nanostructures have also been introduced in photocatalytic water remediation, gas sensing and catalytic converter. Hierarchical nanostructures will open up many possibilities for materials design and device fabrication in environmental chemistry and technology.

  14. Processing of hierarchical syntactic structure in music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelsch, Stefan; Rohrmeier, Martin; Torrecuso, Renzo; Jentschke, Sebastian

    2013-09-17

    Hierarchical structure with nested nonlocal dependencies is a key feature of human language and can be identified theoretically in most pieces of tonal music. However, previous studies have argued against the perception of such structures in music. Here, we show processing of nonlocal dependencies in music. We presented chorales by J. S. Bach and modified versions in which the hierarchical structure was rendered irregular whereas the local structure was kept intact. Brain electric responses differed between regular and irregular hierarchical structures, in both musicians and nonmusicians. This finding indicates that, when listening to music, humans apply cognitive processes that are capable of dealing with long-distance dependencies resulting from hierarchically organized syntactic structures. Our results reveal that a brain mechanism fundamental for syntactic processing is engaged during the perception of music, indicating that processing of hierarchical structure with nested nonlocal dependencies is not just a key component of human language, but a multidomain capacity of human cognition.

  15. Hierarchical Spatial Concept Formation Based on Multimodal Information for Human Support Robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagiwara, Yoshinobu; Inoue, Masakazu; Kobayashi, Hiroyoshi; Taniguchi, Tadahiro

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a hierarchical spatial concept formation method based on the Bayesian generative model with multimodal information e.g., vision, position and word information. Since humans have the ability to select an appropriate level of abstraction according to the situation and describe their position linguistically, e.g., "I am in my home" and "I am in front of the table," a hierarchical structure of spatial concepts is necessary in order for human support robots to communicate smoothly with users. The proposed method enables a robot to form hierarchical spatial concepts by categorizing multimodal information using hierarchical multimodal latent Dirichlet allocation (hMLDA). Object recognition results using convolutional neural network (CNN), hierarchical k-means clustering result of self-position estimated by Monte Carlo localization (MCL), and a set of location names are used, respectively, as features in vision, position, and word information. Experiments in forming hierarchical spatial concepts and evaluating how the proposed method can predict unobserved location names and position categories are performed using a robot in the real world. Results verify that, relative to comparable baseline methods, the proposed method enables a robot to predict location names and position categories closer to predictions made by humans. As an application example of the proposed method in a home environment, a demonstration in which a human support robot moves to an instructed place based on human speech instructions is achieved based on the formed hierarchical spatial concept.

  16. Hierarchical Spatial Concept Formation Based on Multimodal Information for Human Support Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshinobu Hagiwara

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a hierarchical spatial concept formation method based on the Bayesian generative model with multimodal information e.g., vision, position and word information. Since humans have the ability to select an appropriate level of abstraction according to the situation and describe their position linguistically, e.g., “I am in my home” and “I am in front of the table,” a hierarchical structure of spatial concepts is necessary in order for human support robots to communicate smoothly with users. The proposed method enables a robot to form hierarchical spatial concepts by categorizing multimodal information using hierarchical multimodal latent Dirichlet allocation (hMLDA. Object recognition results using convolutional neural network (CNN, hierarchical k-means clustering result of self-position estimated by Monte Carlo localization (MCL, and a set of location names are used, respectively, as features in vision, position, and word information. Experiments in forming hierarchical spatial concepts and evaluating how the proposed method can predict unobserved location names and position categories are performed using a robot in the real world. Results verify that, relative to comparable baseline methods, the proposed method enables a robot to predict location names and position categories closer to predictions made by humans. As an application example of the proposed method in a home environment, a demonstration in which a human support robot moves to an instructed place based on human speech instructions is achieved based on the formed hierarchical spatial concept.

  17. Recent results from Daya Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chua Ming-chung

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Utilizing powerful nuclear reactors as antineutrino sources, high mountains to provide ample shielding from cosmic rays in the vicinity, and functionally identical detectors with large target volume for near-far relative measurement, the Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment has achieved unprecedented precision in measuring the neutrino mixing angle θ13 and the neutrino mass squared difference |Δm2ee|. I will report the latest Daya Bay results on neutrino oscillations and light sterile neutrino search.

  18. Causal Bayes Model of Mathematical Competence in Kindergarten

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božidar Tepeš

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper authors define mathematical competences in the kindergarten. The basic objective was to measure the mathematical competences or mathematical knowledge, skills and abilities in mathematical education. Mathematical competences were grouped in the following areas: Arithmetic and Geometry. Statistical set consisted of 59 children, 65 to 85 months of age, from the Kindergarten Milan Sachs from Zagreb. The authors describe 13 variables for measuring mathematical competences. Five measuring variables were described for the geometry, and eight measuring variables for the arithmetic. Measuring variables are tasks which children solved with the evaluated results. By measuring mathematical competences the authors make causal Bayes model using free software Tetrad 5.2.1-3. Software makes many causal Bayes models and authors as experts chose the model of the mathematical competences in the kindergarten. Causal Bayes model describes five levels for mathematical competences. At the end of the modeling authors use Bayes estimator. In the results, authors describe by causal Bayes model of mathematical competences, causal effect mathematical competences or how intervention on some competences cause other competences. Authors measure mathematical competences with their expectation as random variables. When expectation of competences was greater, competences improved. Mathematical competences can be improved with intervention on causal competences. Levels of mathematical competences and the result of intervention on mathematical competences can help mathematical teachers.

  19. Hierarchical Matching and Regression with Application to Photometric Redshift Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtagh, Fionn

    2017-06-01

    This work emphasizes that heterogeneity, diversity, discontinuity, and discreteness in data is to be exploited in classification and regression problems. A global a priori model may not be desirable. For data analytics in cosmology, this is motivated by the variety of cosmological objects such as elliptical, spiral, active, and merging galaxies at a wide range of redshifts. Our aim is matching and similarity-based analytics that takes account of discrete relationships in the data. The information structure of the data is represented by a hierarchy or tree where the branch structure, rather than just the proximity, is important. The representation is related to p-adic number theory. The clustering or binning of the data values, related to the precision of the measurements, has a central role in this methodology. If used for regression, our approach is a method of cluster-wise regression, generalizing nearest neighbour regression. Both to exemplify this analytics approach, and to demonstrate computational benefits, we address the well-known photometric redshift or `photo-z' problem, seeking to match Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopic and photometric redshifts.

  20. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

  1. Organic carbon balance and net ecosystem metabolism in Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, W.M.; Smith, E.M.; Marvin-DiPasquale, M.; Boynton, W.R.

    1997-01-01

    The major fluxes of organic carbon associated with physical transport and biological metabolism were compiled, analyzed and compared for the mainstem portion of Chesapeake Bay (USA). In addition, 5 independent methods were used to calculate the annual mean net ecosystem metabolism (NEM = production - respiration) for the integrated Bay. These methods, which employed biogeochemical models, nutrient mass-balances anti summation of individual organic carbon fluxes, yielded remarkably similar estimates, with a mean NEM of +50 g C m-2 yr-1 (?? SE = 751, which is approximately 8% of the estimated annual average gross primary production. These calculations suggest a strong cross-sectional pattern in NEM throughout the Bay, wherein net heterotrophic metabolism prevails in the pelagic zones of the main channel, while net autotrophy occurs in the littoral zones which flank the deeper central area. For computational purposes, the estuary was separated into 3 regions along the land-sea gradient: (1) the oligohaline Upper Bay (11% of total area); (2) the mesohaline Mid Bay (36% of area); and (3) the polyhaline Lower Bay (53% of area). A distinct regional trend in NEM was observed along this salinity gradient, with net here(atrophy (NEM = 87 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Upper Bay, balanced metabolism in the Mid Bay and net autotrophy (NEM = +92 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Lower Bay. As a consequence of overall net autotrophy, the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total organic nitrogen (TON) changed from DIN:TON = 5.1 for riverine inputs to DIN:TON = 0.04 for water exported to the ocean. A striking feature of this organic C mass-balance was the relative dominance of biologically mediated metabolic fluxes compared to physical transport fluxes. The overall ratio of physical TOC inputs (1) to biotic primary production (P) was 0.08 for the whole estuary, but varied dramatically from 2.3 in the Upper Bay to 0.03 in the Mid and Lower Bay regions. Similarly, ecosystem respiration was

  2. Whole-system metabolism and CO2 fluxes in a Mediterranean Bay dominated by seagrass beds (Palma Bay, NW Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Gazeau

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Planktonic and benthic incubations (bare and Posidonia oceanica vegetated sediments were performed at monthly intervals from March 2001 to October 2002 in a seagrass vegetated area of the Bay of Palma (Mallorca, Spain. Results showed a contrast between the planktonic compartment, which was on average near metabolic balance (−4.6±5.9 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 and the benthic compartment, which was autotrophic (17.6±8.5 mmol O2 m-2 d-1. During two cruises in March and June 2002, planktonic and benthic incubations were performed at several stations in the bay to estimate the whole-system metabolism and to examine its relationship with partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 and apparent oxygen utilisation (AOU spatial patterns. Moreover, during the second cruise, when the residence time of water was long enough, net ecosystem production (NEP estimates based on incubations were compared, over the Posidonia oceanica meadow, to rates derived from dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC and oxygen (O2 mass balance budgets. These budgets provided NEP estimates in fair agreement with those derived from direct metabolic estimates based on incubated samples over the Posidonia oceanica meadow. Whereas the seagrass community was autotrophic, the excess organic carbon production therein could only balance the planktonic heterotrophy in shallow waters relative to the maximum depth of the bay (55 m. This generated a horizontal gradient from autotrophic or balanced communities in the shallow seagrass-covered areas, to strongly heterotrophic communities in deeper areas of the bay. It seems therefore that, on an annual scale in the whole bay, the organic matter production by the Posidonia oceanica may not be sufficient to fully compensate the heterotrophy of the planktonic compartment, which may require external organic carbon inputs, most likely from land.

  3. Hierarchical ordering with partial pairwise hierarchical relationships on the macaque brain data sets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosang Lim

    Full Text Available Hierarchical organizations of information processing in the brain networks have been known to exist and widely studied. To find proper hierarchical structures in the macaque brain, the traditional methods need the entire pairwise hierarchical relationships between cortical areas. In this paper, we present a new method that discovers hierarchical structures of macaque brain networks by using partial information of pairwise hierarchical relationships. Our method uses a graph-based manifold learning to exploit inherent relationship, and computes pseudo distances of hierarchical levels for every pair of cortical areas. Then, we compute hierarchy levels of all cortical areas by minimizing the sum of squared hierarchical distance errors with the hierarchical information of few cortical areas. We evaluate our method on the macaque brain data sets whose true hierarchical levels are known as the FV91 model. The experimental results show that hierarchy levels computed by our method are similar to the FV91 model, and its errors are much smaller than the errors of hierarchical clustering approaches.

  4. Hierarchical analysis of acceptable use policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Laughton

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Acceptable use policies (AUPs are vital tools for organizations to protect themselves and their employees from misuse of computer facilities provided. A well structured, thorough AUP is essential for any organization. It is impossible for an effective AUP to deal with every clause and remain readable. For this reason, some sections of an AUP carry more weight than others, denoting importance. The methodology used to develop the hierarchical analysis is a literature review, where various sources were consulted. This hierarchical approach to AUP analysis attempts to highlight important sections and clauses dealt with in an AUP. The emphasis of the hierarchal analysis is to prioritize the objectives of an AUP.

  5. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

    2003-01-01

    Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

  6. Hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped carbon membranes

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Hong

    2017-08-03

    The present invention is a structure, method of making and method of use for a novel macroscopic hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped, nano-porous carbon membrane (HNDCMs) with asymmetric and hierarchical pore architecture that can be produced on a large-scale approach. The unique HNDCM holds great promise as components in separation and advanced carbon devices because they could offer unconventional fluidic transport phenomena on the nanoscale. Overall, the invention set forth herein covers a hierarchically structured, nitrogen-doped carbon membranes and methods of making and using such a membranes.

  7. A hierarchical instrumental decision theory of nicotine dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogarth, Lee; Troisi, Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    It is important to characterize the learning processes governing tobacco-seeking in order to understand how best to treat this behavior. Most drug learning theories have adopted a Pavlovian framework wherein the conditioned response is the main motivational process. We favor instead a hierarchical instrumental decision account, wherein expectations about the instrumental contingency between voluntary tobacco-seeking and the receipt of nicotine reward determines the probability of executing this behavior. To support this view, we review titration and nicotine discrimination research showing that internal signals for deprivation/satiation modulate expectations about the current incentive value of smoking, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. We also review research on cue-reactivity which has shown that external smoking cues modulate expectations about the probability of the tobacco-seeking response being effective, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. Economic decision theory is then considered to elucidate how expectations about the value and probability of response-nicotine contingency are integrated to form an overall utility estimate for that option for comparison with qualitatively different, nonsubstitute reinforcers, to determine response selection. As an applied test for this hierarchical instrumental decision framework, we consider how well it accounts for individual liability to smoking uptake and perseveration, pharmacotherapy, cue-extinction therapies, and plain packaging. We conclude that the hierarchical instrumental account is successful in reconciling this broad range of phenomenon precisely because it accepts that multiple diverse sources of internal and external information must be integrated to shape the decision to smoke.

  8. Zeolitic materials with hierarchical porous structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Orozco, Sofia; Inayat, Amer; Schwab, Andreas; Selvam, Thangaraj; Schwieger, Wilhelm

    2011-06-17

    During the past several years, different kinds of hierarchical structured zeolitic materials have been synthesized due to their highly attractive properties, such as superior mass/heat transfer characteristics, lower restriction of the diffusion of reactants in the mesopores, and low pressure drop. Our contribution provides general information regarding types and preparation methods of hierarchical zeolitic materials and their relative advantages and disadvantages. Thereafter, recent advances in the preparation and characterization of hierarchical zeolitic structures within the crystallites by post-synthetic treatment methods, such as dealumination or desilication; and structured devices by in situ and ex situ zeolite coatings on open-cellular ceramic foams as (non-reactive as well as reactive) supports are highlighted. Specific advantages of using hierarchical zeolitic catalysts/structures in selected catalytic reactions, such as benzene to phenol (BTOP) and methanol to olefins (MTO) are presented. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. HIERARCHICAL ORGANIZATION OF INFORMATION, IN RELATIONAL DATABASES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demian Horia

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I will present different types of representation, of hierarchical information inside a relational database. I also will compare them to find the best organization for specific scenarios.

  10. Hierarchical DSE for multi-ASIP platforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micconi, Laura; Corvino, Rosilde; Gangadharan, Deepak

    2013-01-01

    This work proposes a hierarchical Design Space Exploration (DSE) for the design of multi-processor platforms targeted to specific applications with strict timing and area constraints. In particular, it considers platforms integrating multiple Application Specific Instruction Set Processors (ASIPs...

  11. Packaging glass with hierarchically nanostructured surface

    KAUST Repository

    He, Jr-Hau

    2017-08-03

    An optical device includes an active region and packaging glass located on top of the active region. A top surface of the packaging glass includes hierarchical nanostructures comprised of honeycombed nanowalls (HNWs) and nanorod (NR) structures extending from the HNWs.

  12. Packaging glass with hierarchically nanostructured surface

    KAUST Repository

    He, Jr-Hau; Fu, Hui-Chun

    2017-01-01

    An optical device includes an active region and packaging glass located on top of the active region. A top surface of the packaging glass includes hierarchical nanostructures comprised of honeycombed nanowalls (HNWs) and nanorod (NR) structures

  13. 33 CFR 100.919 - International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. 100.919 Section 100.919 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF... Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. (a) Regulated Area. A regulated area is established to include all...

  14. 77 FR 2972 - Thunder Bay Power Company, Thunder Bay Power, LLC, et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-20

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Thunder Bay Power Company, Thunder Bay Power, LLC, et al.; Notice of Application for Transfer of Licenses, and Soliciting Comments and Motions To Intervene Thunder Bay Power Company Project No. 2404-095 Thunder Bay Power, LLC Midwest Hydro, Inc...

  15. 33 CFR 162.125 - Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Wisc.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Wisc. 162.125 Section 162.125 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) PORTS AND WATERWAYS SAFETY INLAND WATERWAYS NAVIGATION REGULATIONS § 162.125 Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship...

  16. 77 FR 38488 - Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-28

    ... 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY... restrict vessels from a portion of the St. Lawrence River during the Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce... of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) entitled Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence...

  17. Humboldt Bay, California Benthic Habitats 2009 Geodatabase

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

  18. Humboldt Bay Benthic Habitats 2009 Aquatic Setting

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

  19. San Francisco Bay Water Quality Improvement Fund

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPAs grant program to protect and restore San Francisco Bay. The San Francisco Bay Water Quality Improvement Fund (SFBWQIF) has invested in 58 projects along with 70 partners contributing to restore wetlands, water quality, and reduce polluted runoff.,

  20. South Bay Salt Pond Mercury Studies Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information about the SFBWQP South Bay Salt Pond Mercury Studies Project, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

  1. Humboldt Bay, California Benthic Habitats 2009 Substrate

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

  2. Humboldt Bay, California Benthic Habitats 2009 Geoform

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Humboldt Bay is the largest estuary in California north of San Francisco Bay and represents a significant resource for the north coast region. Beginning in 2007 the...

  3. Adaptive hierarchical grid model of water-borne pollutant dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borthwick, A. G. L.; Marchant, R. D.; Copeland, G. J. M.

    Water pollution by industrial and agricultural waste is an increasingly major public health issue. It is therefore important for water engineers and managers to be able to predict accurately the local behaviour of water-borne pollutants. This paper describes the novel and efficient coupling of dynamically adaptive hierarchical grids with standard solvers of the advection-diffusion equation. Adaptive quadtree grids are able to focus on regions of interest such as pollutant fronts, while retaining economy in the total number of grid elements through selective grid refinement. Advection is treated using Lagrangian particle tracking. Diffusion is solved separately using two grid-based methods; one is by explicit finite differences, the other a diffusion-velocity approach. Results are given in two dimensions for pure diffusion of an initially Gaussian plume, advection-diffusion of the Gaussian plume in the rotating flow field of a forced vortex, and the transport of species in a rectangular channel with side wall boundary layers. Close agreement is achieved with analytical solutions of the advection-diffusion equation and simulations from a Lagrangian random walk model. An application to Sepetiba Bay, Brazil is included to demonstrate the method with complex flows and topography.

  4. Hierarchical organization versus self-organization

    OpenAIRE

    Busseniers, Evo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we try to define the difference between hierarchical organization and self-organization. Organization is defined as a structure with a function. So we can define the difference between hierarchical organization and self-organization both on the structure as on the function. In the next two chapters these two definitions are given. For the structure we will use some existing definitions in graph theory, for the function we will use existing theory on (self-)organization. In the t...

  5. Hierarchical decision making for flood risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2013-01-01

    . In current practice, structures are often optimized individually without considering benefits of having a hierarchy of protection structures. It is here argued, that the joint consideration of hierarchically integrated protection structures is beneficial. A hierarchical decision model is utilized to analyze...... and compare the benefit of large upstream protection structures and local downstream protection structures in regard to epistemic uncertainty parameters. Results suggest that epistemic uncertainty influences the outcome of the decision model and that, depending on the magnitude of epistemic uncertainty...

  6. Contaminant transport in Massachusetts Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butman, Bradford

    Construction of a new treatment plant and outfall to clean up Boston Harbor is currently one of the world's largest public works projects, costing about $4 billion. There is concern about the long-term impact of contaminants on Massachusetts Bay and adjacent Gulf of Maine because these areas are used extensively for transportation, recreation, fishing, and tourism, as well as waste disposal. Public concern also focuses on Stellwagen Bank, located on the eastern side of Massachusetts Bay, which is an important habitat for endangered whales. Contaminants reach Massachusetts Bay not only from Boston Harbor, but from other coastal communities on the Gulf of Maine, as well as from the atmosphere. Knowledge of the pathways, mechanisms, and rates at which pollutants are transported throughout these coastal environments is needed to address a wide range of management questions.

  7. Bayes linear statistics, theory & methods

    CERN Document Server

    Goldstein, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Bayesian methods combine information available from data with any prior information available from expert knowledge. The Bayes linear approach follows this path, offering a quantitative structure for expressing beliefs, and systematic methods for adjusting these beliefs, given observational data. The methodology differs from the full Bayesian methodology in that it establishes simpler approaches to belief specification and analysis based around expectation judgements. Bayes Linear Statistics presents an authoritative account of this approach, explaining the foundations, theory, methodology, and practicalities of this important field. The text provides a thorough coverage of Bayes linear analysis, from the development of the basic language to the collection of algebraic results needed for efficient implementation, with detailed practical examples. The book covers:The importance of partial prior specifications for complex problems where it is difficult to supply a meaningful full prior probability specification...

  8. With Prudhoe Bay in decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.M.; Pollock, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Almost every day, it seems, someone is mentioning Prudhoe Bay---its development activities, the direction of its oil production, and more recently its decline rate. Almost as frequently, someone is mentioning the number of companies abandoning exploration in Alaska. The state faces a double-edged dilemma: decline of its most important oil field and a diminished effort to find a replacement for the lost production. ARCO has seen the Prudhoe Bay decline coming for some time and has been planning for it. We have reduced staff, and ARCO and BP Exploration are finding cost-effective ways to work more closely together through such vehicles as shared services. At the same time, ARCO is continuing its high level of Alaskan exploration. This article will assess the future of Prudhoe Bay from a technical perspective, review ARCO's exploration plans for Alaska, and suggest what the state can do to encourage other companies to invest in this crucial producing region and exploratory frontier

  9. Minimum relative entropy, Bayes and Kapur

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodbury, Allan D.

    2011-04-01

    The focus of this paper is to illustrate important philosophies on inversion and the similarly and differences between Bayesian and minimum relative entropy (MRE) methods. The development of each approach is illustrated through the general-discrete linear inverse. MRE differs from both Bayes and classical statistical methods in that knowledge of moments are used as ‘data’ rather than sample values. MRE like Bayes, presumes knowledge of a prior probability distribution and produces the posterior pdf itself. MRE attempts to produce this pdf based on the information provided by new moments. It will use moments of the prior distribution only if new data on these moments is not available. It is important to note that MRE makes a strong statement that the imposed constraints are exact and complete. In this way, MRE is maximally uncommitted with respect to unknown information. In general, since input data are known only to within a certain accuracy, it is important that any inversion method should allow for errors in the measured data. The MRE approach can accommodate such uncertainty and in new work described here, previous results are modified to include a Gaussian prior. A variety of MRE solutions are reproduced under a number of assumed moments and these include second-order central moments. Various solutions of Jacobs & van der Geest were repeated and clarified. Menke's weighted minimum length solution was shown to have a basis in information theory, and the classic least-squares estimate is shown as a solution to MRE under the conditions of more data than unknowns and where we utilize the observed data and their associated noise. An example inverse problem involving a gravity survey over a layered and faulted zone is shown. In all cases the inverse results match quite closely the actual density profile, at least in the upper portions of the profile. The similar results to Bayes presented in are a reflection of the fact that the MRE posterior pdf, and its mean

  10. Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

  11. The Realized Hierarchical Archimedean Copula in Risk Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ostap Okhrin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the concept of the realized hierarchical Archimedean copula (rHAC. The proposed approach inherits the ability of the copula to capture the dependencies among financial time series, and combines it with additional information contained in high-frequency data. The considered model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and is able to accurately predict high-dimensional distributions. This flexibility is obtained by using a hierarchical structure in the copula. The time variability of the model is provided by daily forecasts of the realized correlation matrix, which is used to estimate the structure and the parameters of the rHAC. Extensive simulation studies show the validity of the estimator based on this realized correlation matrix, and its performance, in comparison to the benchmark models. The application of the estimator to one-day-ahead Value at Risk (VaR prediction using high-frequency data exhibits good forecasting properties for a multivariate portfolio.

  12. Correlation Between Hierarchical Bayesian and Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Data and Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, ...

  13. Hierarchical Nanoceramics for Industrial Process Sensors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, James, A.; Brosnan, Kristen, H.; Striker, Todd; Ramaswamy, Vidya; Aceto, Steven, C.; Gao, Yan; Willson, Patrick, D.; Manoharan, Mohan; Armstrong, Eric, N., Wachsman, Eric, D.; Kao, Chi-Chang

    2011-07-15

    This project developed a robust, tunable, hierarchical nanoceramics materials platform for industrial process sensors in harsh-environments. Control of material structure at multiple length scales from nano to macro increased the sensing response of the materials to combustion gases. These materials operated at relatively high temperatures, enabling detection close to the source of combustion. It is anticipated that these materials can form the basis for a new class of sensors enabling widespread use of efficient combustion processes with closed loop feedback control in the energy-intensive industries. The first phase of the project focused on materials selection and process development, leading to hierarchical nanoceramics that were evaluated for sensing performance. The second phase focused on optimizing the materials processes and microstructures, followed by validation of performance of a prototype sensor in a laboratory combustion environment. The objectives of this project were achieved by: (1) synthesizing and optimizing hierarchical nanostructures; (2) synthesizing and optimizing sensing nanomaterials; (3) integrating sensing functionality into hierarchical nanostructures; (4) demonstrating material performance in a sensing element; and (5) validating material performance in a simulated service environment. The project developed hierarchical nanoceramic electrodes for mixed potential zirconia gas sensors with increased surface area and demonstrated tailored electrocatalytic activity operable at high temperatures enabling detection of products of combustion such as NOx close to the source of combustion. Methods were developed for synthesis of hierarchical nanostructures with high, stable surface area, integrated catalytic functionality within the structures for gas sensing, and demonstrated materials performance in harsh lab and combustion gas environments.

  14. Evaluating Hierarchical Structure in Music Annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFee, Brian; Nieto, Oriol; Farbood, Morwaread M; Bello, Juan Pablo

    2017-01-01

    Music exhibits structure at multiple scales, ranging from motifs to large-scale functional components. When inferring the structure of a piece, different listeners may attend to different temporal scales, which can result in disagreements when they describe the same piece. In the field of music informatics research (MIR), it is common to use corpora annotated with structural boundaries at different levels. By quantifying disagreements between multiple annotators, previous research has yielded several insights relevant to the study of music cognition. First, annotators tend to agree when structural boundaries are ambiguous. Second, this ambiguity seems to depend on musical features, time scale, and genre. Furthermore, it is possible to tune current annotation evaluation metrics to better align with these perceptual differences. However, previous work has not directly analyzed the effects of hierarchical structure because the existing methods for comparing structural annotations are designed for "flat" descriptions, and do not readily generalize to hierarchical annotations. In this paper, we extend and generalize previous work on the evaluation of hierarchical descriptions of musical structure. We derive an evaluation metric which can compare hierarchical annotations holistically across multiple levels. sing this metric, we investigate inter-annotator agreement on the multilevel annotations of two different music corpora, investigate the influence of acoustic properties on hierarchical annotations, and evaluate existing hierarchical segmentation algorithms against the distribution of inter-annotator agreement.

  15. Evaluating Hierarchical Structure in Music Annotations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian McFee

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Music exhibits structure at multiple scales, ranging from motifs to large-scale functional components. When inferring the structure of a piece, different listeners may attend to different temporal scales, which can result in disagreements when they describe the same piece. In the field of music informatics research (MIR, it is common to use corpora annotated with structural boundaries at different levels. By quantifying disagreements between multiple annotators, previous research has yielded several insights relevant to the study of music cognition. First, annotators tend to agree when structural boundaries are ambiguous. Second, this ambiguity seems to depend on musical features, time scale, and genre. Furthermore, it is possible to tune current annotation evaluation metrics to better align with these perceptual differences. However, previous work has not directly analyzed the effects of hierarchical structure because the existing methods for comparing structural annotations are designed for “flat” descriptions, and do not readily generalize to hierarchical annotations. In this paper, we extend and generalize previous work on the evaluation of hierarchical descriptions of musical structure. We derive an evaluation metric which can compare hierarchical annotations holistically across multiple levels. sing this metric, we investigate inter-annotator agreement on the multilevel annotations of two different music corpora, investigate the influence of acoustic properties on hierarchical annotations, and evaluate existing hierarchical segmentation algorithms against the distribution of inter-annotator agreement.

  16. Distribution and behavior of major and trace elements in Tokyo Bay, Mutsu Bay and Funka Bay marine sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honda, Teruyuki; Kimura, Ken-ichiro

    2003-01-01

    Fourteen major and trace elements in marine sediment core samples collected from the coasts along eastern Japan, i.e. Tokyo Bay (II) (the recess), Tokyo Bay (IV) (the mouth), Mutsu Bay and Funka Bay and the Northwest Pacific basin as a comparative subject were determined by the instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The sedimentation rates and sedimentary ages were calculated for the coastal sediment cores by the 210 Pb method. The results obtained in this study are summarized as follows: (1) Lanthanoid abundance patterns suggested that the major origin of the sediments was terrigenous material. La*/Lu* and Ce*/La* ratios revealed that the sediments from Tokyo Bay (II) and Mutsu Bay more directly reflected the contribution from river than those of other regions. In addition, the Th/Sc ratio indicated that the coastal sediments mainly originated in the materials from the volcanic island-arcs, Japanese islands, whereas those from the Northwest Pacific mainly from the continent. (2) The correlation between the Ce/U and Th/U ratios with high correlation coefficients of 0.920 to 0.991 indicated that all the sediments from Tokyo Bay (II) and Funka Bay were in reducing conditions while at least the upper sediments from Tokyo Bay (IV) and Mutsu Bay were in oxidizing conditions. (3) It became quite obvious that the sedimentation mechanism and the sedimentation environment at Tokyo Bay (II) was different from those at Tokyo Bay (IV), since the sedimentation rate at Tokyo Bay (II) was approximately twice as large as that at Tokyo Bay (IV). The sedimentary age of the 5th layer (8∼10 cm in depth) from Funka Bay was calculated at approximately 1940∼50, which agreed with the time, 1943∼45 when Showa-shinzan was formed by the eruption of the Usu volcano. (author)

  17. Mobile Bay turbidity plume study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crozier, G. F.

    1976-01-01

    Laboratory and field transmissometer studies on the effect of suspended particulate material upon the appearance of water are reported. Quantitative correlations were developed between remotely sensed image density, optical sea truth data, and actual sediment load. Evaluation of satellite image sea truth data for an offshore plume projects contours of transmissivity for two different tidal phases. Data clearly demonstrate the speed of change and movement of the optical plume for water patterns associated with the mouth of Mobile bay in which relatively clear Gulf of Mexico water enters the bay on the eastern side. Data show that wind stress in excess of 15 knots has a marked impact in producing suspended sediment loads.

  18. Automation in tube finishing bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatnagar, Prateek; Satyadev, B.; Raghuraman, S.; Syama Sundara Rao, B.

    1997-01-01

    Automation concept in tube finishing bay, introduced after the final pass annealing of PHWR tubes resulted in integration of number of sub-systems in synchronisation with each other to produce final cut fuel tubes of specified length, tube finish etc. The tube finishing bay which was physically segregated into four distinct areas: 1. tube spreader and stacking area, 2. I.D. sand blasting area, 3. end conditioning, wad blowing, end capping and O.D. wet grinding area, 4. tube inspection, tube cutting and stacking area has been studied

  19. A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate

  20. Chesapeake Bay plume dynamics from LANDSAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, J. C., Jr.; Fedosh, M. S.

    1981-01-01

    LANDSAT images with enhancement and density slicing show that the Chesapeake Bay plume usually frequents the Virginia coast south of the Bay mouth. Southwestern (compared to northern) winds spread the plume easterly over a large area. Ebb tide images (compared to flood tide images) show a more dispersed plume. Flooding waters produce high turbidity levels over the shallow northern portion of the Bay mouth.

  1. Default Bayes factors for ANOVA designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Morey, Richard D.; Speckman, Paul L.; Province, Jordan M.

    2012-01-01

    Bayes factors have been advocated as superior to p-values for assessing statistical evidence in data. Despite the advantages of Bayes factors and the drawbacks of p-values, inference by p-values is still nearly ubiquitous. One impediment to the adoption of Bayes factors is a lack of practical

  2. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.

    2013-03-01

    Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  3. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Vanem

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  4. A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Albert

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM, which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group

  5. A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Stefan; Schmack, Katharina; Sterzer, Philipp; Schneider, Gaby

    2017-11-01

    Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM), which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group differences to

  6. Safety assessment of a dry storage container drop into irradiated fuel bays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parlatan, Y.; Oh, D.; Arguner, D.; Lei, Q.M.; Kulpa, T.; Bayoumi, M.H.

    2004-01-01

    In Pickering nuclear stations, Dry Storage Containers (DSCs) are employed to transfer used (irradiated) fuel from an irradiated fuel bay to a dry storage facility for interim storage. Each DSC is wet-loaded in the bay water with 4 fuel modules containing up to a total of 384 used fuel bundles that have been out of the reactor core for at least 10 years. Once the DSC is fully loaded, the crane in the bay raises the DSC for spray-wash such that the bottom of the DSC is never more than 2 m above the bay water surface. This paper presents a safety assessment of consequences of an unlikely event that a fully loaded DSC is accidentally dropped into an irradiated fuel bay from the highest possible elevation. Experiments and analyses performed elsewhere show that the DSC drop-generated shock waves will not threaten the structural integrity of an irradiated fuel bay. Therefore, this assessment only assesses the potential damage to the spent fuel bundles in the bay due to pressure transients generated by an accidental DSC drop. A bounding estimate approach has been used to calculate the upper limit of the pressure pulse and the resulting static and dynamic stresses on the fuel sheath. The bounding calculations and relevant experimental results demonstrate that an accidental drop of a fully loaded DSC into an irradiated fuel bay will not cause additional failures of the main fuel inventories stored in modules in the bay water, thus no consequential release of fission products into the bay water. (author)

  7. Distribution, abundance and density estimates of franciscanas, Pontoporia blainvillei (Cetacea: Pontoporiidae, in Babitonga bay, southern Brazil Distribuição e estimativas de abundância e densidade de franciscanas, Pontoporia blainvillei (Cetacea: Pontoporiidae, na baía da Babitonga, sul do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta J. Cremer

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Pontoporia blainvillei (Gervais & d'Orbigny, 1844 is threatened throughout its distribution. The species can be found year-round in the Babitonga bay estuary (26º 02'-26º 28'S and 48º28'-48º50'W, in the north coast of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Boat surveys were conducted in order to evaluate its abundance and density between 2000 and 2003. Sampling was random and stratified, with 46 transects in five sub-areas, comprising a total area of 160 km². Data collection was conducted following the linear transect method with distance sampling. A total of 1174.7 km was scanned and 38 groups were observed. Franciscanas were not uniformly distributed in Babitonga bay. Group size ranged from one to 13 animals (mean ± SD = 5.02 ± 3.62. Model 1 (Half-Normal showed the best fit to the data. The estimated population size was 50 animals and the density was 0.32 individuals km-2. Density estimates evaluated in the sub-areas where franciscanas occurred resulted in a density of 0.46 individuals km-2. Monitoring this population is of considerable importance due to the constant threats that this species faces in this bay.Pontoporia blainvillei (Gervais & d'Orbigny, 1844 ocorre ao longo de todo o ano no estuário da baía da Babitonga, no litoral norte de Santa Catarina, sul do Brasil. Foram realizadas amostragens com o objetivo de obter informações sobre sua abundância e densidade populacional nesta área entre os anos de 2000 e 2003. A amostragem foi aleatória e estratificada, com 46 transecções estabelecidas em cinco grandes sub-áreas, compreendendo 160 km². A coleta de dados foi conduzida utilizando o método de transecções lineares com amostragem de distância. Foram percorridos 1174,7 km e 38 grupos foram registrados. As franciscanas não apresentaram uma distribuição uniforme na baía da Babitonga. O tamanho de grupo variou de um a 13 animais (5,02 ± 3,62. O Modelo 1 (Meio-Normal promoveu o melhor ajustamento dos parâmetros. A

  8. A hierarchical framework for air traffic control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Kaushik

    Air travel in recent years has been plagued by record delays, with over $8 billion in direct operating costs being attributed to 100 million flight delay minutes in 2007. Major contributing factors to delay include weather, congestion, and aging infrastructure; the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) aims to alleviate these delays through an upgrade of the air traffic control system. Changes to large-scale networked systems such as air traffic control are complicated by the need for coordinated solutions over disparate temporal and spatial scales. Individual air traffic controllers must ensure aircraft maintain safe separation locally with a time horizon of seconds to minutes, whereas regional plans are formulated to efficiently route flows of aircraft around weather and congestion on the order of every hour. More efficient control algorithms that provide a coordinated solution are required to safely handle a larger number of aircraft in a fixed amount of airspace. Improved estimation algorithms are also needed to provide accurate aircraft state information and situational awareness for human controllers. A hierarchical framework is developed to simultaneously solve the sometimes conflicting goals of regional efficiency and local safety. Careful attention is given in defining the interactions between the layers of this hierarchy. In this way, solutions to individual air traffic problems can be targeted and implemented as needed. First, the regional traffic flow management problem is posed as an optimization problem and shown to be NP-Hard. Approximation methods based on aggregate flow models are developed to enable real-time implementation of algorithms that reduce the impact of congestion and adverse weather. Second, the local trajectory design problem is solved using a novel slot-based sector model. This model is used to analyze sector capacity under varying traffic patterns, providing a more comprehensive understanding of how increased automation

  9. Ecological risk assessment of TBT in Ise Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Joji; Yonezawa, Yoshitaka; Nakata, Kisaburo; Horiguchi, Fumio

    2009-02-01

    An ecological risk assessment of tributyltin (TBT) in Ise Bay was conducted using the margin of exposure (MOE) method. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect the survival, growth and reproduction of marine organisms. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Ise Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. Estimated MOEs for marine organisms for 1990 and 2008 were approximately 0.1-2.0 and over 100 respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse effects. The chemical fate model predicts a much longer persistence of TBT in sediments than in the water column. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the harmful effects of TBT on benthic organisms.

  10. Latest results from Daya Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorobel, Vit; Daya Bay Collaboration

    2017-07-01

    The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment was designed to measure θ 13, the smallest mixing angle in the three-neutrino mixing framework, with unprecedented precision. The experiment consists of eight functionally identical detectors placed underground at different baselines from three pairs of nuclear reactors in South China. Since Dec. 2011, the experiment has been running stably for more than 4 years, and has collected the largest reactor anti-neutrino sample to date. Daya Bay is able to greatly improve the precision on θ 13 and to make an independent measurement of the effective mass splitting in the electron antineutrino disappearance channel. Daya Bay can also perform a number of other precise measurements, such as a high-statistics determination of the absolute reactor antineutrino flux and spectrum, as well as a search for sterile neutrino mixing, among others. The most recent results from Daya Bay are discussed in this paper, as well as the current status and future prospects of the experiment.

  11. Daya bay reactor neutrino experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Jun

    2010-01-01

    Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment is a large international collaboration experiment under construction. The experiment aims to precisely determine the neutrino mixing angle θ 13 by detecting the neutrinos produced by the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant. θ 13 is one of two unknown fundamental parameters in neutrino mixing. Its magnitude is a roadmap of the future neutrino physics, and very likely related to the puzzle of missing antimatter in our universe. The precise measurement has very important physics significance. The detectors of Daya Bay is under construction now. The full operation is expected in 2011. Three years' data taking will reach the designed the precision, to determine sin 2 2θ 13 to better than 0.01. Daya Bay neutrino detector is an underground large nuclear detector of low background, low energy, and high precision. In this paper, the layout of the experiment, the design and fabrication progress of the detectors, and some highlighted nuclear detecting techniques developed in the detector R and D are introduced. (author)

  12. Aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in sediments of Placentia Bay, Newfoundland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiceniuk, J.W.

    1992-01-01

    A study was conducted to examine the potential for contamination of recent sediments with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons due to tanker and refinery activity in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland, an area without large local anthropogenic sources of aromatics. Sediment samples were taken from the vicinity of the Come By Chance refinery, Woody Island, Wild Cove, and Port Royal Arm, all in the north end of the bay. The samples were extracted by two methods, dichloromethane extraction of dried sediment for determination of total aromatic hydrocarbon content and hexane extraction of wet sediment for estimation of the bioavailability of hydrocarbons and determination of more volatile compounds. Class analysis of aromatic hydrocarbons was conducted on a NH 2 column with detection at 255 nm. Total concentrations of di-tricyclic aromatics were highest at the Woody Island site (0.6 μg/g). The sediments from the Come By Chance site, Wild Cove, and Port Royal Arm sediments contained 0.3, 0.1, and 0.2 μg/g respectively. The hexane extracts from Come By Chance were lowest in di-tricyclic aromatics (0.007 μg/g), with the other sites being equal in concentration (0.01 μg/g). It is evident from the study that aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in Placentia Bay are elevated in some parts of the bay in the absence of local combustion sources, and that the most likely source is petroleum. 12 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Contaminant exposure of birds nesting in Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Thomas W; Dummer, Paul M; Custer, Christine M; Franson, J Christian; Jones, Michael

    2014-08-01

    In earlier studies, elevated concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) were reported in double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) eggs and tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) eggs and nestlings collected from lower Green Bay (WI, USA) in 1994 and 1995 and black-crowned night-heron (Nycticorax nycticorax) eggs collected in 1991. Comparable samples collected in 2010 and 2011 indicated that concentrations of PCBs were 35%, 62%, 70%, and 88% lower than in the early 1990s in tree swallow eggs, tree swallow nestlings, double-crested cormorant eggs, and black-crowned night-heron eggs, respectively; concentrations of DDE were 47%, 43%, 51%, and 80% lower, respectively. These declines are consistent with regional contaminant trends in other species. Concentrations of PCBs were higher in herring gull (Larus argentatus) than in black-crowned night-heron eggs collected from Green Bay in 2010; PCB concentrations in double-crested cormorant and tree swallow eggs were intermediate. The estimated toxicity of the PCB mixture in eggs of the insectivorous tree swallow was the equal to or greater than toxicity in the 3 piscivorous bird species. A multivariate analysis indicated that the composition percentage of lower-numbered PCB congeners was greater in eggs of the insectivorous tree swallow than in eggs of the 3 piscivorous species nesting in Green Bay. Dioxin and furan concentrations and the toxicity of these chemicals were also higher in tree swallows than these other waterbird species nesting in Green Bay. Published 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition Loadings to the Chesapeake Bay: An Initial Analysis of the Cost Effectiveness of Control Options (1996)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report examines the cost effectiveness of control options which reduce nitrate deposition to the Chesapeake watershed and to the tidal Bay. The report analyzes current estimates of the reductions expected in the ozone transport region.

  15. Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciortea, E. M.

    2015-11-01

    The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

  16. Self-assembled biomimetic superhydrophobic hierarchical arrays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hongta; Dou, Xuan; Fang, Yin; Jiang, Peng

    2013-09-01

    Here, we report a simple and inexpensive bottom-up technology for fabricating superhydrophobic coatings with hierarchical micro-/nano-structures, which are inspired by the binary periodic structure found on the superhydrophobic compound eyes of some insects (e.g., mosquitoes and moths). Binary colloidal arrays consisting of exemplary large (4 and 30 μm) and small (300 nm) silica spheres are first assembled by a scalable Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) technology in a layer-by-layer manner. After surface modification with fluorosilanes, the self-assembled hierarchical particle arrays become superhydrophobic with an apparent water contact angle (CA) larger than 150°. The throughput of the resulting superhydrophobic coatings with hierarchical structures can be significantly improved by templating the binary periodic structures of the LB-assembled colloidal arrays into UV-curable fluoropolymers by a soft lithography approach. Superhydrophobic perfluoroether acrylate hierarchical arrays with large CAs and small CA hysteresis can be faithfully replicated onto various substrates. Both experiments and theoretical calculations based on the Cassie's dewetting model demonstrate the importance of the hierarchical structure in achieving the final superhydrophobic surface states. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Designs: Evaluation Using Latent Variable Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko

    2011-01-01

    Interval estimation of intraclass correlation coefficients in hierarchical designs is discussed within a latent variable modeling framework. A method accomplishing this aim is outlined, which is applicable in two-level studies where participants (or generally lower-order units) are clustered within higher-order units. The procedure can also be…

  18. Static and dynamic friction of hierarchical surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costagliola, Gianluca; Bosia, Federico; Pugno, Nicola M

    2016-12-01

    Hierarchical structures are very common in nature, but only recently have they been systematically studied in materials science, in order to understand the specific effects they can have on the mechanical properties of various systems. Structural hierarchy provides a way to tune and optimize macroscopic mechanical properties starting from simple base constituents and new materials are nowadays designed exploiting this possibility. This can be true also in the field of tribology. In this paper we study the effect of hierarchical patterned surfaces on the static and dynamic friction coefficients of an elastic material. Our results are obtained by means of numerical simulations using a one-dimensional spring-block model, which has previously been used to investigate various aspects of friction. Despite the simplicity of the model, we highlight some possible mechanisms that explain how hierarchical structures can significantly modify the friction coefficients of a material, providing a means to achieve tunability.

  19. Learning with hierarchical-deep models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salakhutdinov, Ruslan; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Torralba, Antonio

    2013-08-01

    We introduce HD (or “Hierarchical-Deep”) models, a new compositional learning architecture that integrates deep learning models with structured hierarchical Bayesian (HB) models. Specifically, we show how we can learn a hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) prior over the activities of the top-level features in a deep Boltzmann machine (DBM). This compound HDP-DBM model learns to learn novel concepts from very few training example by learning low-level generic features, high-level features that capture correlations among low-level features, and a category hierarchy for sharing priors over the high-level features that are typical of different kinds of concepts. We present efficient learning and inference algorithms for the HDP-DBM model and show that it is able to learn new concepts from very few examples on CIFAR-100 object recognition, handwritten character recognition, and human motion capture datasets.

  20. Hierarchical silica particles by dynamic multicomponent assembly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Z. W.; Hu, Q. Y.; Pang, J. B.

    2005-01-01

    Abstract: Aerosol-assisted assembly of mesoporous silica particles with hierarchically controllable pore structure has been prepared using cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) and poly(propylene oxide) (PPO, H[OCH(CH3)CH2],OH) as co-templates. Addition of the hydrophobic PPO significantly...... influences the delicate hydrophilic-hydrophobic balance in the well-studied CTAB-silicate co-assembling system, resulting in various mesostructures (such as hexagonal, lamellar, and hierarchical structure). The co-assembly of CTAB, silicate clusters, and a low-molecular-weight PPO (average M-n 425) results...... in a uniform lamellar structure, while the use of a high-molecular-weight PPO (average M-n 2000), which is more hydrophobic, leads to the formation of hierarchical pore structure that contains meso-meso or meso-macro pore structure. The role of PPO additives on the mesostructure evolution in the CTAB...

  1. Deep hierarchical attention network for video description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuohao; Tang, Min; Zhang, Jun

    2018-03-01

    Pairing video to natural language description remains a challenge in computer vision and machine translation. Inspired by image description, which uses an encoder-decoder model for reducing visual scene into a single sentence, we propose a deep hierarchical attention network for video description. The proposed model uses convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional LSTM network as encoders while a hierarchical attention network is used as the decoder. Compared to encoder-decoder models used in video description, the bidirectional LSTM network can capture the temporal structure among video frames. Moreover, the hierarchical attention network has an advantage over single-layer attention network on global context modeling. To make a fair comparison with other methods, we evaluate the proposed architecture with different types of CNN structures and decoders. Experimental results on the standard datasets show that our model has a more superior performance than the state-of-the-art techniques.

  2. On Utmost Multiplicity of Hierarchical Stellar Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gebrehiwot Y. M.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available According to theoretical considerations, multiplicity of hierarchical stellar systems can reach, depending on masses and orbital parameters, several hundred, while observational data confirm the existence of at most septuple (seven-component systems. In this study, we cross-match the stellar systems of very high multiplicity (six and more components in modern catalogues of visual double and multiple stars to find among them the candidates to hierarchical systems. After cross-matching the catalogues of closer binaries (eclipsing, spectroscopic, etc., some of their components were found to be binary/multiple themselves, what increases the system's degree of multiplicity. Optical pairs, known from literature or filtered by the authors, were flagged and excluded from the statistics. We compiled a list of hierarchical systems with potentially very high multiplicity that contains ten objects. Their multiplicity does not exceed 12, and we discuss a number of ways to explain the lack of extremely high multiplicity systems.

  3. Hierarchical Micro-Nano Coatings by Painting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirveslahti, Anna; Korhonen, Tuulia; Suvanto, Mika; Pakkanen, Tapani A.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, the wettability properties of coatings with hierarchical surface structures and low surface energy were studied. Hierarchically structured coatings were produced by using hydrophobic fumed silica nanoparticles and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) microparticles as additives in polyester (PES) and polyvinyldifluoride (PVDF). These particles created hierarchical micro-nano structures on the paint surfaces and lowered or supported the already low surface energy of the paint. Two standard application techniques for paint application were employed and the presented coatings are suitable for mass production and use in large surface areas. By regulating the particle concentrations, it was possible to modify wettability properties gradually. Highly hydrophobic surfaces were achieved with the highest contact angle of 165∘. Dynamic contact angle measurements were carried out for a set of selected samples and low hysteresis was obtained. Produced coatings possessed long lasting durability in the air and in underwater conditions.

  4. Hierarchical capillary adhesion of microcantilevers or hairs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jianlin; Feng Xiqiao; Xia Re; Zhao Hongping

    2007-01-01

    As a result of capillary forces, animal hairs, carbon nanotubes or nanowires of a periodically or randomly distributed array often assemble into hierarchical structures. In this paper, the energy method is adopted to analyse the capillary adhesion of microsized hairs, which are modelled as clamped microcantilevers wetted by liquids. The critical conditions for capillary adhesion of two hairs, three hairs or two bundles of hairs are derived in terms of Young's contact angle, elastic modulus and geometric sizes of the beams. Then, the hierarchical capillary adhesion of hairs is addressed. It is found that for multiple hairs or microcantilevers, the system tends to take a hierarchical structure as a result of the minimization of the total potential energy of the system. The level number of structural hierarchy increases with the increase in the number of hairs if they are sufficiently long. Additionally, we performed experiments to verify our theoretical solutions for the adhesion of microbeams

  5. ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS AND RELIABILITY FUNCTION OF EXPONENTIATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER GENERAL ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kumar Singh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In this Paper we propose Bayes estimators of the parameters of Exponentiated Exponential distribution and Reliability functions under General Entropy loss function for Type II censored sample. The proposed estimators have been compared with the corresponding Bayes estimators obtained under Squared Error loss function and maximum likelihood estimators for their simulated risks (average loss over sample space.

  6. Hierarchical control of electron-transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westerhoff, Hans V.; Jensen, Peter Ruhdal; Egger, Louis

    1997-01-01

    In this chapter the role of electron transfer in determining the behaviour of the ATP synthesising enzyme in E. coli is analysed. It is concluded that the latter enzyme lacks control because of special properties of the electron transfer components. These properties range from absence of a strong...... back pressure by the protonmotive force on the rate of electron transfer to hierarchical regulation of the expression of the gens that encode the electron transfer proteins as a response to changes in the bioenergetic properties of the cell.The discussion uses Hierarchical Control Analysis...

  7. Analyzing security protocols in hierarchical networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Ye; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2006-01-01

    Validating security protocols is a well-known hard problem even in a simple setting of a single global network. But a real network often consists of, besides the public-accessed part, several sub-networks and thereby forms a hierarchical structure. In this paper we first present a process calculus...... capturing the characteristics of hierarchical networks and describe the behavior of protocols on such networks. We then develop a static analysis to automate the validation. Finally we demonstrate how the technique can benefit the protocol development and the design of network systems by presenting a series...

  8. Hierarchical MAS based control strategy for microgrid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, Z.; Li, T.; Huang, M.; Shi, J.; Yang, J.; Yu, J. [School of Information Science and Engineering, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091 (China); Xiao, Z. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Western Catchment Area, 639798 (Singapore); Wu, W. [Communication Branch of Yunnan Power Grid Corporation, Kunming, Yunnan 650217 (China)

    2010-09-15

    Microgrids have become a hot topic driven by the dual pressures of environmental protection concerns and the energy crisis. In this paper, a challenge for the distributed control of a modern electric grid incorporating clusters of residential microgrids is elaborated and a hierarchical multi-agent system (MAS) is proposed as a solution. The issues of how to realize the hierarchical MAS and how to improve coordination and control strategies are discussed. Based on MATLAB and ZEUS platforms, bilateral switching between grid-connected mode and island mode is performed under control of the proposed MAS to enhance and support its effectiveness. (authors)

  9. Multiparty hierarchical quantum-information splitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xinwen; Zhang Dengyu; Tang Shiqing; Xie Lijun

    2011-01-01

    We propose a scheme for multiparty hierarchical quantum-information splitting (QIS) with a multipartite entangled state, where a boss distributes a secret quantum state to two grades of agents asymmetrically. The agents who belong to different grades have different authorities for recovering the boss's secret. Except for the boss's Bell-state measurement, no nonlocal operation is involved. The presented scheme is also shown to be secure against eavesdropping. Such a hierarchical QIS is expected to find useful applications in the field of modern multipartite quantum cryptography.

  10. Hierarchical Analysis of the Omega Ontology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joslyn, Cliff A.; Paulson, Patrick R.

    2009-12-01

    Initial delivery for mathematical analysis of the Omega Ontology. We provide an analysis of the hierarchical structure of a version of the Omega Ontology currently in use within the US Government. After providing an initial statistical analysis of the distribution of all link types in the ontology, we then provide a detailed order theoretical analysis of each of the four main hierarchical links present. This order theoretical analysis includes the distribution of components and their properties, their parent/child and multiple inheritance structure, and the distribution of their vertical ranks.

  11. Inferring on the Intentions of Others by Hierarchical Bayesian Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaconescu, Andreea O.; Mathys, Christoph; Weber, Lilian A. E.; Daunizeau, Jean; Kasper, Lars; Lomakina, Ekaterina I.; Fehr, Ernst; Stephan, Klaas E.

    2014-01-01

    Inferring on others' (potentially time-varying) intentions is a fundamental problem during many social transactions. To investigate the underlying mechanisms, we applied computational modeling to behavioral data from an economic game in which 16 pairs of volunteers (randomly assigned to “player” or “adviser” roles) interacted. The player performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning task, receiving information about a binary lottery from a visual pie chart. The adviser, who received more predictive information, issued an additional recommendation. Critically, the game was structured such that the adviser's incentives to provide helpful or misleading information varied in time. Using a meta-Bayesian modeling framework, we found that the players' behavior was best explained by the deployment of hierarchical learning: they inferred upon the volatility of the advisers' intentions in order to optimize their predictions about the validity of their advice. Beyond learning, volatility estimates also affected the trial-by-trial variability of decisions: participants were more likely to rely on their estimates of advice accuracy for making choices when they believed that the adviser's intentions were presently stable. Finally, our model of the players' inference predicted the players' interpersonal reactivity index (IRI) scores, explicit ratings of the advisers' helpfulness and the advisers' self-reports on their chosen strategy. Overall, our results suggest that humans (i) employ hierarchical generative models to infer on the changing intentions of others, (ii) use volatility estimates to inform decision-making in social interactions, and (iii) integrate estimates of advice accuracy with non-social sources of information. The Bayesian framework presented here can quantify individual differences in these mechanisms from simple behavioral readouts and may prove useful in future clinical studies of maladaptive social cognition. PMID:25187943

  12. Accuracy of latent-variable estimation in Bayesian semi-supervised learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Keisuke

    2015-09-01

    Hierarchical probabilistic models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. These models consist of observable and latent variables, which represent the observable data and the underlying data-generation process, respectively. Unsupervised learning tasks, such as cluster analysis, are regarded as estimations of latent variables based on the observable ones. The estimation of latent variables in semi-supervised learning, where some labels are observed, will be more precise than that in unsupervised, and one of the concerns is to clarify the effect of the labeled data. However, there has not been sufficient theoretical analysis of the accuracy of the estimation of latent variables. In a previous study, a distribution-based error function was formulated, and its asymptotic form was calculated for unsupervised learning with generative models. It has been shown that, for the estimation of latent variables, the Bayes method is more accurate than the maximum-likelihood method. The present paper reveals the asymptotic forms of the error function in Bayesian semi-supervised learning for both discriminative and generative models. The results show that the generative model, which uses all of the given data, performs better when the model is well specified. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Carolina Bay Restoration Project - Final Report 2000-2006.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barton, Christopher

    2007-12-15

    A Wetlands Mitigation Bank was established at SRS in 1997 as a compensatory alternative for unavoidable wetland losses. Prior to restoration activities, 16 sites included in the project were surveyed for the SRS Site Use system to serve as a protective covenant. Pre-restoration monitoring ended in Fall 2000, and post restoration monitoring began in the Winter/Spring of 2001. The total interior harvest in the 16 bays after harvesting the trees was 19.6 ha. The margins in the opencanopy, pine savanna margin treatments were thinned. Margins containing areas with immature forested stands (bay 5184 and portions of bay 5011) were thinned using a mechanical shredder in November 2001. Over 126 hectares were included in the study areas (interior + margin). Planting of two tree species and the transplanting of wetland grass species was successful. From field surveys, it was estimated that approximately 2700 Nyssa sylvatica and 1900 Taxodium distichum seedlings were planted in the eight forested bays resulting in an average planting density of ≈ 490 stems ha-1. One hundred seedlings of each species per bay (where available) were marked to evaluate survivability and growth. Wetland grass species were transplanted from donor sites on SRS to plots that ranged in size from 100 – 300 m2, depending on wetland size. On 0.75 and 0.6 meter centers, respectively, 2198 plugs of Panicum hemitomon and 3021 plugs Leersia hexandra were transplanted. New shoots originating from the stumps were treated with a foliar herbicide (Garlon® 4) during the summer of 2001 using backpack sprayers. Preliminary information from 2000-2004 regarding the hydrologic, vegetation and faunal response to restoration is presented in this status report.

  14. Predominant Nearshore Sediment Dispersal Patterns in Manila Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Siringan

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available Net nearshore sediment drift patterns in Manila Bay were determined by combining the coastal geomorphology depicted in 1 : 50,000scale topographic maps and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR images, with changes in shoreline position and predominant longshore current directions derived from the interaction of locally generated waves and bay morphology.Manila Bay is fringed by a variety of coastal subenvironments that reflect changing balances of fluvial, wave, and tidal processes. Along the northern coast, a broad tidal-river delta plain stretching from Bataan to Bulacan indicates the importance of tides, where the lateral extent of tidal influences is amplified by the very gentle coastal gradients. In contrast, along the Cavite coast sandy strandplains, spits, and wave-dominated deltas attest to the geomorphic importance of waves that enter the bay from the South China Sea.The estimates of net sediment drift derived from geomorphological, shoreline-change, and meteorological information are generally in good agreement. Sediment drift directions are predominantly to the northeast along Cavite, to the northwest along Manila and Bulacan, and to the north along Bataan. Wave refraction and eddy formation at the tip of the Cavite Spit cause southwestward sediment drift along the coast from Zapote to Kawit. Geomorphology indicates that onshore-offshore sediment transport is probably more important than alongshore transport along the coast fronting the tidal delta plain of northern Manila Bay. Disagreements between the geomorphic-derived and predicted net sediment drift directions may be due to interactions of wave-generated longshore currents with wind- and tide-generated currents.

  15. Potential climate change impacts on a tropical estuary: Hilo Bay, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adolf, J.; LaPinta, J.; Marusek, J.; Pascoe, K.; Pugh, A.

    2016-02-01

    Hilo Bay is a tropical estuarine ecosystem on the northeast (windward) coast of Hawai`i Island that is potentially vulnerable to climate change effects mediated through elevated water temperatures and/or changing rainfall patterns that impact river and groundwater fluxes. Here, we document trends in water temperature, river flow and phytoplankton dynamics in Hilo Bay. Hilo Bay is fed by two major rivers, Wailuku and Honoli`i, both of which have shown long term declines in output over their 85 and 38 year monitoring periods (USGS), respectively. Time series of groundwater inputs to Hilo Bay do not exist, but the average estimated rate rivals that of average river inputs. Daily average Hilo Bay water temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.35 degrees C per year (p Hilo Bay water quality buoy began in 2010, with the warmest temperatures on record recorded Sept 2015. Salinity did not show a trend over this same time period. Phytoplankton showed a pronounced seasonal cycle in Hilo Bay with a long term average of 3.7 mg m-3 and dominance by diatoms that exploit the co-availability of silica and nitrate in this environment. On shorter time scales of days to Hilo Bay salinity, temperature and phytoplankton biomass. Coincidental atmospheric warming, SST warming in the adjacent North Pacific ocean, and declining river flows will likely work together to result in elevated SST in Hilo Bay if observed trends continue. The El Nino event that started this year is expected to exacerbate this warming through reduce river flow and warmer regional SST.

  16. On the analyticity of the pressure in the hierarchical dipole gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benfatto, G.; Gallavotti, G.; Nicolo, F.

    1989-01-01

    The authors attempt to prove, by the direct estimation of the convergence radius, the convergence of the Mayer expansion for the dipole gas, with the aim of developing techniques eventually suitable to prove the often conjectured convergence of the Mayer expansion for the two-dimensional Coulomb gas at low temperature. The treatment stems from their technique for sharp estimates on the truncated expectations for a hierarchical dipole gas model

  17. Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Huang; Francesca Dominici; Michelle Bell

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP ...

  18. Validation of differential gene expression algorithms: Application comparing fold-change estimation to hypothesis testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bickel David R

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sustained research on the problem of determining which genes are differentially expressed on the basis of microarray data has yielded a plethora of statistical algorithms, each justified by theory, simulation, or ad hoc validation and yet differing in practical results from equally justified algorithms. Recently, a concordance method that measures agreement among gene lists have been introduced to assess various aspects of differential gene expression detection. This method has the advantage of basing its assessment solely on the results of real data analyses, but as it requires examining gene lists of given sizes, it may be unstable. Results Two methodologies for assessing predictive error are described: a cross-validation method and a posterior predictive method. As a nonparametric method of estimating prediction error from observed expression levels, cross validation provides an empirical approach to assessing algorithms for detecting differential gene expression that is fully justified for large numbers of biological replicates. Because it leverages the knowledge that only a small portion of genes are differentially expressed, the posterior predictive method is expected to provide more reliable estimates of algorithm performance, allaying concerns about limited biological replication. In practice, the posterior predictive method can assess when its approximations are valid and when they are inaccurate. Under conditions in which its approximations are valid, it corroborates the results of cross validation. Both comparison methodologies are applicable to both single-channel and dual-channel microarrays. For the data sets considered, estimating prediction error by cross validation demonstrates that empirical Bayes methods based on hierarchical models tend to outperform algorithms based on selecting genes by their fold changes or by non-hierarchical model-selection criteria. (The latter two approaches have comparable

  19. Hierarchical self-organization of non-cooperating individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamás Nepusz

    Full Text Available Hierarchy is one of the most conspicuous features of numerous natural, technological and social systems. The underlying structures are typically complex and their most relevant organizational principle is the ordering of the ties among the units they are made of according to a network displaying hierarchical features. In spite of the abundant presence of hierarchy no quantitative theoretical interpretation of the origins of a multi-level, knowledge-based social network exists. Here we introduce an approach which is capable of reproducing the emergence of a multi-levelled network structure based on the plausible assumption that the individuals (representing the nodes of the network can make the right estimate about the state of their changing environment to a varying degree. Our model accounts for a fundamental feature of knowledge-based organizations: the less capable individuals tend to follow those who are better at solving the problems they all face. We find that relatively simple rules lead to hierarchical self-organization and the specific structures we obtain possess the two, perhaps most important features of complex systems: a simultaneous presence of adaptability and stability. In addition, the performance (success score of the emerging networks is significantly higher than the average expected score of the individuals without letting them copy the decisions of the others. The results of our calculations are in agreement with a related experiment and can be useful from the point of designing the optimal conditions for constructing a given complex social structure as well as understanding the hierarchical organization of such biological structures of major importance as the regulatory pathways or the dynamics of neural networks.

  20. Nelson River and Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Rivers that empty into large bodies of water can have a significant impact on the thawing of nearshore winter ice. This true-color Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image from May 18, 2001, shows the Nelson River emptying spring runoff from the Manitoba province to the south into the southwestern corner of Canada's Hudson Bay. The warmer waters from more southern latitudes hasten melting of ice near the shore, though some still remained, perhaps because in shallow coastal waters, the ice could have been anchored to the bottom. High volumes of sediment in the runoff turned the inflow brown, and the rim of the retreating ice has taken on a dirty appearance even far to the east of the river's entrance into the Bay. The sediment would have further hastened the melting of the ice because its darker color would have absorbed more solar radiation than cleaner, whiter ice. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

  1. Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaus Umlauf

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Structured additive regression (STAR models provide a flexible framework for model- ing possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models and generalized additive models as special cases but also allow a wider class of effects, e.g., for geographical or spatio-temporal data, allowing for specification of complex and realistic models. BayesX is standalone software package providing software for fitting general class of STAR models. Based on a comprehensive open-source regression toolbox written in C++, BayesX uses Bayesian inference for estimating STAR models based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a mixed model representation of STAR models, or stepwise regression techniques combining penalized least squares estimation with model selection. BayesX not only covers models for responses from univariate exponential families, but also models from less-standard regression situations such as models for multi-categorical responses with either ordered or unordered categories, continuous time survival data, or continuous time multi-state models. This paper presents a new fully interactive R interface to BayesX: the R package R2BayesX. With the new package, STAR models can be conveniently specified using Rs formula language (with some extended terms, fitted using the BayesX binary, represented in R with objects of suitable classes, and finally printed/summarized/plotted. This makes BayesX much more accessible to users familiar with R and adds extensive graphics capabilities for visualizing fitted STAR models. Furthermore, R2BayesX complements the already impressive capabilities for semiparametric regression in R by a comprehensive toolbox comprising in particular more complex response types and alternative inferential procedures such as simulation-based Bayesian inference.

  2. Biomass and Carbon Stocks of Sofala Bay Mangrove Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Almeida A. Sitoe

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves could be key ecosystems in strategies addressing the mitigation of climate changes through carbon storage. However, little is known regarding the carbon stocks of these ecosystems, particularly below-ground. This study was carried out in the mangrove forests of Sofala Bay, Central Mozambique, with the aim of quantifying carbon stocks of live and dead plant and soil components. The methods followed the procedures developed by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR for mangrove forests. In this study, we developed a general allometric equation to estimate individual tree biomass and soil carbon content (up to 100 cm depth. We estimated the carbon in the whole mangrove ecosystem of Sofala Bay, including dead trees, wood debris, herbaceous, pneumatophores, litter and soil. The general allometric equation for live trees derived was [Above-ground tree dry weight (kg = 3.254 × exp(0.065 × DBH], root mean square error (RMSE = 4.244, and coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.89. The average total carbon storage of Sofala Bay mangrove was 218.5 Mg·ha−1, of which around 73% are stored in the soil. Mangrove conservation has the potential for REDD+ programs, especially in regions like Mozambique, which contains extensive mangrove areas with high deforestation and degradation rates.

  3. Runtime Concepts of Hierarchical Software Components

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bureš, Tomáš; Hnětynka, P.; Plášil, František

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 8, special (2007), s. 454-463 ISSN 1525-9293 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300504 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : component-based development * hierarchical components * connectors * controlers * runtime environment Subject RIV: JC - Computer Hardware ; Software

  4. Hierarchical Broadcasting in the Future Mobile Internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hesselman, C.E.W.; Eertink, E.H.; Fernandez, Milagros; Crnkovic, Ivica; Fohler, Gerhard; Griwodz, Carsten; Plagemann, Thomas; Gruenbacher, Paul

    2002-01-01

    We describe an architecture for the hierarchical distribution of multimedia broadcasts in the future mobile Internet. The architecture supports network as well as application-layer mobility solutions, and uses stream control functions that are influenced by available network resources, user-defined

  5. Hierarchical regression analysis in structural Equation Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, P.F.

    1999-01-01

    In a hierarchical or fixed-order regression analysis, the independent variables are entered into the regression equation in a prespecified order. Such an analysis is often performed when the extra amount of variance accounted for in a dependent variable by a specific independent variable is the main

  6. Modular networks with hierarchical organization: The dynamical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Most of the complex systems seen in real life also have associated dynamics [10], and the ... another example, this time a hierarchical structure, viz., the Cayley tree with b ..... natural constraints operating on networks in real life, such as the ...

  7. A hierarchical model for ordinal matrix factorization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paquet, Ulrich; Thomson, Blaise; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a hierarchical probabilistic model for ordinal matrix factorization. Unlike previous approaches, we model the ordinal nature of the data and take a principled approach to incorporating priors for the hidden variables. Two algorithms are presented for inference, one based...

  8. Hierarchical Control for Multiple DC Microgrids Clusters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafiee, Qobad; Dragicevic, Tomislav; Vasquez, Juan Carlos

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a distributed hierarchical control framework to ensure reliable operation of dc Microgrid (MG) clusters. In this hierarchy, primary control is used to regulate the common bus voltage inside each MG locally. An adaptive droop method is proposed for this level which determines...

  9. Ultrafast Hierarchical OTDM/WDM Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideyuki Sotobayashi

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Ultrafast hierarchical OTDM/WDM network is proposed for the future core-network. We review its enabling technologies: C- and L-wavelength-band generation, OTDM-WDM mutual multiplexing format conversions, and ultrafast OTDM wavelengthband conversions.

  10. Hierarchical machining materials and their performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sidorenko, Daria; Loginov, Pavel; Levashov, Evgeny

    2016-01-01

    as nanoparticles in the binder, or polycrystalline, aggregate-like reinforcements, also at several scale levels). Such materials can ensure better productivity, efficiency, and lower costs of drilling, cutting, grinding, and other technological processes. This article reviews the main groups of hierarchical...

  11. A hierarchical classification scheme of psoriasis images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maletti, Gabriela Mariel; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

    2003-01-01

    A two-stage hierarchical classification scheme of psoriasis lesion images is proposed. These images are basically composed of three classes: normal skin, lesion and background. The scheme combines conventional tools to separate the skin from the background in the first stage, and the lesion from...

  12. Hierarchical pre-segmentation without prior knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    A new method to pre-segment images by means of a hierarchical description is proposed. This description is obtained from an investigation of the deep structure of a scale space image – the input image and the Gaussian filtered ones simultaneously. We concentrate on scale space critical points –

  13. Hierarchical spatial organization of geographical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travencolo, Bruno A N; Costa, Luciano da F

    2008-01-01

    In this work, we propose a hierarchical extension of the polygonality index as the means to characterize geographical planar networks. By considering successive neighborhoods around each node, it is possible to obtain more complete information about the spatial order of the network at progressive spatial scales. The potential of the methodology is illustrated with respect to synthetic and real geographical networks

  14. Hierarchical Context Modeling for Video Event Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyang; Ji, Qiang

    2016-10-11

    Current video event recognition research remains largely target-centered. For real-world surveillance videos, targetcentered event recognition faces great challenges due to large intra-class target variation, limited image resolution, and poor detection and tracking results. To mitigate these challenges, we introduced a context-augmented video event recognition approach. Specifically, we explicitly capture different types of contexts from three levels including image level, semantic level, and prior level. At the image level, we introduce two types of contextual features including the appearance context features and interaction context features to capture the appearance of context objects and their interactions with the target objects. At the semantic level, we propose a deep model based on deep Boltzmann machine to learn event object representations and their interactions. At the prior level, we utilize two types of prior-level contexts including scene priming and dynamic cueing. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical context model that systematically integrates the contextual information at different levels. Through the hierarchical context model, contexts at different levels jointly contribute to the event recognition. We evaluate the hierarchical context model for event recognition on benchmark surveillance video datasets. Results show that incorporating contexts in each level can improve event recognition performance, and jointly integrating three levels of contexts through our hierarchical model achieves the best performance.

  15. Hierarchical production planning for consumer goods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, de A.G.

    1990-01-01

    Abstract In this paper the mathematical logic behind a hierarchical planning procedure is discussed. The planning procedure is used to derive production volumes of consumer products. The essence of the planning procedure is that first a commitment is made concerning the production volume for a

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…

  17. Spill management strategy for the Chesapeake Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butler, H.L.; Chapman, R.S.; Johnson, B.H.

    1990-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Program is a unique cooperative effort between state and Federal agencies to restore the health and productivity of America's largest estuary. To assist in addressing specific management issues, a comprehensive three-dimensional, time-varying hydrodynamic and water quality model has ben developed. The Bay modeling strategy will serve as an excellent framework for including submodules to predict the movement, dispersion, and weathering of accidental spills, such as for petroleum products or other chemicals. This paper presents sample results from the Bay application to illustrate the success of the model system in simulating Bay processes. Also, a review of model requirements for successful spill modeling in Chesapeake Bay is presented. Recommendations are given for implementing appropriate spill modules with the Bay model framework and establishing a strategy for model use in addressing management issues

  18. An approach to separating the levels of hierarchical structure building in language and mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makuuchi, Michiru; Bahlmann, Jörg; Friederici, Angela D

    2012-07-19

    We aimed to dissociate two levels of hierarchical structure building in language and mathematics, namely 'first-level' (the build-up of hierarchical structure with externally given elements) and 'second-level' (the build-up of hierarchical structure with internally represented elements produced by first-level processes). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated these processes in three domains: sentence comprehension, arithmetic calculation (using Reverse Polish notation, which gives two operands followed by an operator) and a working memory control task. All tasks required the build-up of hierarchical structures at the first- and second-level, resulting in a similar computational hierarchy across language and mathematics, as well as in a working memory control task. Using a novel method that estimates the difference in the integration cost for conditions of different trial durations, we found an anterior-to-posterior functional organization in the prefrontal cortex, according to the level of hierarchy. Common to all domains, the ventral premotor cortex (PMv) supports first-level hierarchy building, while the dorsal pars opercularis (POd) subserves second-level hierarchy building, with lower activation for language compared with the other two tasks. These results suggest that the POd and the PMv support domain-general mechanisms for hierarchical structure building, with the POd being uniquely efficient for language.

  19. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Self-Thinning Line for Chinese Fir in Southern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiongqing Zhang

    Full Text Available Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.Hook. plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF. Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc. on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.

  20. Robust Real-Time Music Transcription with a Compositional Hierarchical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesek, Matevž; Leonardis, Aleš; Marolt, Matija

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a new compositional hierarchical model for robust music transcription. Its main features are unsupervised learning of a hierarchical representation of input data, transparency, which enables insights into the learned representation, as well as robustness and speed which make it suitable for real-world and real-time use. The model consists of multiple layers, each composed of a number of parts. The hierarchical nature of the model corresponds well to hierarchical structures in music. The parts in lower layers correspond to low-level concepts (e.g. tone partials), while the parts in higher layers combine lower-level representations into more complex concepts (tones, chords). The layers are learned in an unsupervised manner from music signals. Parts in each layer are compositions of parts from previous layers based on statistical co-occurrences as the driving force of the learning process. In the paper, we present the model's structure and compare it to other hierarchical approaches in the field of music information retrieval. We evaluate the model's performance for the multiple fundamental frequency estimation. Finally, we elaborate on extensions of the model towards other music information retrieval tasks.

  1. A general Bayes weibull inference model for accelerated life testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorp, J. Rene van; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.

    2005-01-01

    This article presents the development of a general Bayes inference model for accelerated life testing. The failure times at a constant stress level are assumed to belong to a Weibull distribution, but the specification of strict adherence to a parametric time-transformation function is not required. Rather, prior information is used to indirectly define a multivariate prior distribution for the scale parameters at the various stress levels and the common shape parameter. Using the approach, Bayes point estimates as well as probability statements for use-stress (and accelerated) life parameters may be inferred from a host of testing scenarios. The inference procedure accommodates both the interval data sampling strategy and type I censored sampling strategy for the collection of ALT test data. The inference procedure uses the well-known MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods to derive posterior approximations. The approach is illustrated with an example

  2. A hierarchical community occurrence model for North Carolina stream fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midway, S.R.; Wagner, Tyler; Tracy, B.H.

    2016-01-01

    The southeastern USA is home to one of the richest—and most imperiled and threatened—freshwater fish assemblages in North America. For many of these rare and threatened species, conservation efforts are often limited by a lack of data. Drawing on a unique and extensive data set spanning over 20 years, we modeled occurrence probabilities of 126 stream fish species sampled throughout North Carolina, many of which occur more broadly in the southeastern USA. Specifically, we developed species-specific occurrence probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian multispecies models that were based on common land use and land cover covariates. We also used index of biotic integrity tolerance classifications as a second level in the model hierarchy; we identify this level as informative for our work, but it is flexible for future model applications. Based on the partial-pooling property of the models, we were able to generate occurrence probabilities for many imperiled and data-poor species in addition to highlighting a considerable amount of occurrence heterogeneity that supports species-specific investigations whenever possible. Our results provide critical species-level information on many threatened and imperiled species as well as information that may assist with re-evaluation of existing management strategies, such as the use of surrogate species. Finally, we highlight the use of a relatively simple hierarchical model that can easily be generalized for similar situations in which conventional models fail to provide reliable estimates for data-poor groups.

  3. Likelihood Approximation With Parallel Hierarchical Matrices For Large Spatial Datasets

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    The main goal of this article is to introduce the parallel hierarchical matrix library HLIBpro to the statistical community. We describe the HLIBCov package, which is an extension of the HLIBpro library for approximating large covariance matrices and maximizing likelihood functions. We show that an approximate Cholesky factorization of a dense matrix of size $2M\\\\times 2M$ can be computed on a modern multi-core desktop in few minutes. Further, HLIBCov is used for estimating the unknown parameters such as the covariance length, variance and smoothness parameter of a Matérn covariance function by maximizing the joint Gaussian log-likelihood function. The computational bottleneck here is expensive linear algebra arithmetics due to large and dense covariance matrices. Therefore covariance matrices are approximated in the hierarchical ($\\\\H$-) matrix format with computational cost $\\\\mathcal{O}(k^2n \\\\log^2 n/p)$ and storage $\\\\mathcal{O}(kn \\\\log n)$, where the rank $k$ is a small integer (typically $k<25$), $p$ the number of cores and $n$ the number of locations on a fairly general mesh. We demonstrate a synthetic example, where the true values of known parameters are known. For reproducibility we provide the C++ code, the documentation, and the synthetic data.

  4. Likelihood Approximation With Parallel Hierarchical Matrices For Large Spatial Datasets

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander; Sun, Ying; Genton, Marc G.; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    The main goal of this article is to introduce the parallel hierarchical matrix library HLIBpro to the statistical community. We describe the HLIBCov package, which is an extension of the HLIBpro library for approximating large covariance matrices and maximizing likelihood functions. We show that an approximate Cholesky factorization of a dense matrix of size $2M\\times 2M$ can be computed on a modern multi-core desktop in few minutes. Further, HLIBCov is used for estimating the unknown parameters such as the covariance length, variance and smoothness parameter of a Matérn covariance function by maximizing the joint Gaussian log-likelihood function. The computational bottleneck here is expensive linear algebra arithmetics due to large and dense covariance matrices. Therefore covariance matrices are approximated in the hierarchical ($\\H$-) matrix format with computational cost $\\mathcal{O}(k^2n \\log^2 n/p)$ and storage $\\mathcal{O}(kn \\log n)$, where the rank $k$ is a small integer (typically $k<25$), $p$ the number of cores and $n$ the number of locations on a fairly general mesh. We demonstrate a synthetic example, where the true values of known parameters are known. For reproducibility we provide the C++ code, the documentation, and the synthetic data.

  5. Hierarchical subtask discovery with non-negative matrix factorization

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Earle, AC

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Hierarchical reinforcement learning methods offer a powerful means of planning flexible behavior in complicated domains. However, learning an appropriate hierarchical decomposition of a domain into subtasks remains a substantial challenge. We...

  6. Hierarchical subtask discovery with non-negative matrix factorization

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Earle, AC

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hierarchical reinforcement learning methods offer a powerful means of planning flexible behavior in complicated domains. However, learning an appropriate hierarchical decomposition of a domain into subtasks remains a substantial challenge. We...

  7. Virtual timers in hierarchical real-time systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuvel, van den M.M.H.P.; Holenderski, M.J.; Cools, W.A.; Bril, R.J.; Lukkien, J.J.; Zhu, D.

    2009-01-01

    Hierarchical scheduling frameworks (HSFs) provide means for composing complex real-time systems from welldefined subsystems. This paper describes an approach to provide hierarchically scheduled real-time applications with virtual event timers, motivated by the need for integrating priority

  8. 75 FR 8297 - Tongass National Forest, Thorne Bay Ranger District, Thorne Bay, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-24

    ..., Thorne Bay, AK AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Cancellation of Notice of intent to prepare an... Roberts, Zone Planner, Thorne Bay Ranger District, Tongass National Forest, P.O. Box 19001, Thorne Bay, AK 99919, telephone: 907-828-3250. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The 47,007-acre Kosciusko Project Area is...

  9. 77 FR 44140 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Sturgeon Bay, WI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-27

    ... Maple-Oregon Bridges so vehicular traffic congestion would not develop on downtown Sturgeon Bay streets... movement of vehicular traffic in Sturgeon Bay. The Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal is approximately 8.6 miles long... significant increase in vehicular and vessel traffic during the peak tourist and navigation season between...

  10. The onset of deglaciation of Cumberland Bay and Stromness Bay, South Georgia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Der Putten, N.; Verbruggen, C.

    Carbon dating of basal peat deposits in Cumberland Bay and Stromness Bay and sediments from a lake in Stromness Bay, South Georgia indicates deglaciation at the very beginning of the Holocene before c. 9500 14C yr BP. This post-dates the deglaciation of one local lake which has been ice-free since

  11. 78 FR 46813 - Safety Zone; Evening on the Bay Fireworks; Sturgeon Bay, WI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-02

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Evening on the Bay Fireworks; Sturgeon Bay, WI AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION.... This temporary safety zone will restrict vessels from a portion of Sturgeon Bay due to a fireworks... hazards associated with the fireworks display. DATES: This rule is effective from 8 p.m. until 10 p.m. on...

  12. Water quality and discharge data for St. Joseph Bay, Florida, 1997-98

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, M.P.; Franklin, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Historical data were compiled on water quality and water levels for the St. Joseph Bay area to assess quality of possible sources of land-derived water into the Bay. Ground-water quality data were compiled from Florida Department of Environmental Protection and surface-water quality data were compiled from U.S.Geological Survey files. Water-quality and water-level data were measured during two sample collection periods in October 1997 and March 1998 to determine water-quality and discharge rates in St. Joseph Bay under two sets of flow conditions. Measurements in the Bay included water level, temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Median pH in water from the surficial, intermediate and Floridan aquifer systems ranged from 4.8 to 7.8, and median specific conductance values were less than 500 microsiemens per centimeter. Median nutrient concentrations-- nitrate plus nitrite, ammonia and phosphorus--in the three aquifers were less than 0.5 milligrams per liter. The median pH was 7.0 and the median specific conductance was 81 microsiemens per centimeter for two samples from the Chipola River distribution canal. Water level data were obtained for several wells near St. Joseph Bay but only two wells yielded sufficient data to plot hydrographs. Measurements in St. Joseph Bay during the October and March collection periods were similar for pH and turbidity but differed for temperature, specific conductance and dissolved oxygen. The median temperature was 20.6 degrees Celsius in October and 15.4 degrees Celsius in March, median specific conductance was 39,500 microsiemens per centimeter in October and 43,300 microsiemens per centimeter in March, and median dissolved oxygen was 7.6 milligrams per liter in October and 8.3 milligrams per liter in March. The range in water levels over a tidal cycle in St. Joseph Bay on October 29, 1997 was about 1 foot. During a 24-hour tidal cycle on October 29, 1997, estimated hourly discharge varied from

  13. Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgman, M.A.; Wintle, B.A.; Thompson, C.A.; Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Ben-Haim, Y.

    2010-01-01

    Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Hierarchically Nanoporous Bioactive Glasses for High Efficiency Immobilization of Enzymes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, W.; Min, D.D.; Zhang, X.D.

    2014-01-01

    Bioactive glasses with hierarchical nanoporosity and structures have been heavily involved in immobilization of enzymes. Because of meticulous design and ingenious hierarchical nanostructuration of porosities from yeast cell biotemplates, hierarchically nanostructured porous bioactive glasses can...... and products of catalytic reactions can freely diffuse through open mesopores (2–40 nm). The formation mechanism of hierarchically structured porous bioactive glasses, the immobilization mechanism of enzyme and the catalysis mechanism of immobilized enzyme are then discussed. The novel nanostructure...

  15. Sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Chesapeake Bay watershed-An empirical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ator, Scott W.; Brakebill, John W.; Blomquist, Joel D.

    2011-01-01

    Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) was used to provide empirical estimates of the sources, fate, and transport of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and the mean annual TN and TP flux to the bay and in each of 80,579 nontidal tributary stream reaches. Restoration efforts in recent decades have been insufficient to meet established standards for water quality and ecological conditions in Chesapeake Bay. The bay watershed includes 166,000 square kilometers of mixed land uses, multiple nutrient sources, and variable hydrogeologic, soil, and weather conditions, and bay restoration is complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources and complex interacting factors affecting the occurrence, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus from source areas to streams and the estuary. Effective and efficient nutrient management at the regional scale in support of Chesapeake Bay restoration requires a comprehensive understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed, which is only available through regional models. The current models, Chesapeake Bay nutrient SPARROW models, version 4 (CBTN_v4 and CBTP_v4), were constructed at a finer spatial resolution than previous SPARROW models for the Chesapeake Bay watershed (versions 1, 2, and 3), and include an updated timeframe and modified sources and other explantory terms.

  16. Shifting shoals and shattered rocks : How man has transformed the floor of west-central San Francisco Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, John L.; Wong, Florence L.; Carlson, Paul R.

    2004-01-01

    San Francisco Bay, one of the world's finest natural harbors and a major center for maritime trade, is referred to as the 'Gateway to the Pacific Rim.' The bay is an urbanized estuary that is considered by many to be the major estuary in the United States most modified by man's activities. The population around the estuary has grown rapidly since the 1850's and now exceeds 7 million people. The San Francisco Bay area's economy ranks as one of the largest in the world, larger even than that of many countries. More than 10 million tourists are estimated to visit the bay region each year. The bay area's population and associated development have increasingly changed the estuary and its environment. San Francisco Bay and the contiguous Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta encompass roughly 1,600 square miles (4,100 km2) and are the outlet of a major watershed that drains more than 40 percent of the land area of the State of California. This watershed provides drinking water for 20 million people (two thirds of the State's population) and irrigates 4.5 million acres of farmland and ranchland. During the past several decades, much has been done to clean up the environment and waters of San Francisco Bay. Conservationist groups have even bought many areas on the margins of the bay with the intention of restoring them to a condition more like the natural marshes they once were. However, many of the major manmade changes to the bay's environment occurred so long ago that the nature of them has been forgotten. In addition, many changes continue to occur today, such as the introduction of exotic species and the loss of commercial and sport fisheries because of declining fish populations. The economy and population of the nine counties that surround the bay continue to grow and put increasing pressure on the bay, both direct and indirect. Therefore, there are mixed signals for the future health and welfare of San Francisco Bay. The San Francisco Bay estuary consists of three

  17. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  18. Biodiversity inventories and conservation of the marine fishes of Bootless Bay, Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The effective management and conservation of biodiversity is predicated on clearly defined conservation targets. Species number is frequently used as a metric for conservation prioritization and monitoring changes in ecosystem health. We conducted a series of synoptic surveys focusing on the fishes of the Bootless Bay region of Papua New Guinea to generate a checklist of fishes of the region. Bootless Bay lies directly south of Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea, and experiences the highest human population density of any marine area in the country. Our checklist will set a baseline against which future environmental changes can be tracked. Results We generated a checklist of 488 fish species in 72 families found in Bootless Bay during a two-week sampling effort. Using incident-based methods of species estimation, we extrapolate there to be approximately 940 fish species in Bootless Bay, one of the lowest reported numbers in Papua New Guinea. Conclusions Our data suggest that the Bootless Bay ecosystem of Papua New Guinea, while diverse in absolute terms, has lower fish biodiversity compared to other shallow marine areas within the country. These differences in faunal diversity are most likely a combination of unequal sampling effort as well as biophysical factors within Bootless Bay compounded by historical and/or contemporary anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:22849436

  19. Biodiversity inventories and conservation of the marine fishes of Bootless Bay, Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drew Joshua A

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The effective management and conservation of biodiversity is predicated on clearly defined conservation targets. Species number is frequently used as a metric for conservation prioritization and monitoring changes in ecosystem health. We conducted a series of synoptic surveys focusing on the fishes of the Bootless Bay region of Papua New Guinea to generate a checklist of fishes of the region. Bootless Bay lies directly south of Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea, and experiences the highest human population density of any marine area in the country. Our checklist will set a baseline against which future environmental changes can be tracked. Results We generated a checklist of 488 fish species in 72 families found in Bootless Bay during a two-week sampling effort. Using incident-based methods of species estimation, we extrapolate there to be approximately 940 fish species in Bootless Bay, one of the lowest reported numbers in Papua New Guinea. Conclusions Our data suggest that the Bootless Bay ecosystem of Papua New Guinea, while diverse in absolute terms, has lower fish biodiversity compared to other shallow marine areas within the country. These differences in faunal diversity are most likely a combination of unequal sampling effort as well as biophysical factors within Bootless Bay compounded by historical and/or contemporary anthropogenic disturbances.

  20. Likelihood Approximation With Hierarchical Matrices For Large Spatial Datasets

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-09-03

    We use available measurements to estimate the unknown parameters (variance, smoothness parameter, and covariance length) of a covariance function by maximizing the joint Gaussian log-likelihood function. To overcome cubic complexity in the linear algebra, we approximate the discretized covariance function in the hierarchical (H-) matrix format. The H-matrix format has a log-linear computational cost and storage O(kn log n), where the rank k is a small integer and n is the number of locations. The H-matrix technique allows us to work with general covariance matrices in an efficient way, since H-matrices can approximate inhomogeneous covariance functions, with a fairly general mesh that is not necessarily axes-parallel, and neither the covariance matrix itself nor its inverse have to be sparse. We demonstrate our method with Monte Carlo simulations and an application to soil moisture data. The C, C++ codes and data are freely available.

  1. Application of hierarchical matrices for partial inverse

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2013-11-26

    In this work we combine hierarchical matrix techniques (Hackbusch, 1999) and domain decomposition methods to obtain fast and efficient algorithms for the solution of multiscale problems. This combination results in the hierarchical domain decomposition (HDD) method, which can be applied for solution multi-scale problems. Multiscale problems are problems that require the use of different length scales. Using only the finest scale is very expensive, if not impossible, in computational time and memory. Domain decomposition methods decompose the complete problem into smaller systems of equations corresponding to boundary value problems in subdomains. Then fast solvers can be applied to each subdomain. Subproblems in subdomains are independent, much smaller and require less computational resources as the initial problem.

  2. Translating Management Practices in Hierarchical Organizations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæraas, Arild; Nielsen, Jeppe Agger

    structures affect translators’ approaches taken towards management ideas. This paper reports the findings from a longitudinal case study of the translation of Leadership Pipeline in a Danish fire department and how the translators’ approach changed over time from a modifying to a reproducing mode. The study......This study examines how translators in a hierarchical context approach the translation of management practices. Although current translation theory and research emphasize the importance of contextual factors in translation processes, little research has investigated how strongly hierarchical...... finds that translation does not necessarily imply transformation of the management idea, pointing instead to aspects of exact imitation and copying of an ”original” idea. It also highlights how translation is likely to involve multiple and successive translation modes and, furthermore, that strongly...

  3. Hierarchical structure in the distribution of galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulman, L.S.; Seiden, P.E.; Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa; IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY)

    1986-01-01

    The distribution of galaxies has a hierarchical structure with power-law correlations. This is usually thought to arise from gravity alone acting on an originally uniform distributioon. If, however, the original process of galaxy formation occurs through the stimulated birth of one galaxy due to a nearby recently formed galaxy, and if this process occurs near its percolation threshold, then a hierarchical structure with power-law correlations arises at the time of galaxy formation. If subsequent gravitational evolution within an expanding cosmology is such as to retain power-law correlations, the initial r exp -1 dropoff can steepen to the observed r exp -1.8. The distribution of galaxies obtained by this process produces clustering and voids, as observed. 23 references

  4. Biominerals- hierarchical nanocomposites: the example of bone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniash, Elia

    2010-01-01

    Many organisms incorporate inorganic solids in their tissues to enhance their functional, primarily mechanical, properties. These mineralized tissues, also called biominerals, are unique organo-mineral nanocomposites, organized at several hierarchical levels, from nano- to macroscale. Unlike man made composite materials, which often are simple physical blends of their components, the organic and inorganic phases in biominerals interface at the molecular level. Although these tissues are made of relatively weak components at ambient conditions, their hierarchical structural organization and intimate interactions between different elements lead to superior mechanical properties. Understanding basic principles of formation, structure and functional properties of these tissues might lead to novel bioinspired strategies for material design and better treatments for diseases of the mineralized tissues. This review focuses on general principles of structural organization, formation and functional properties of biominerals on the example the bone tissues. PMID:20827739

  5. Noise enhances information transfer in hierarchical networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaplicka, Agnieszka; Holyst, Janusz A; Sloot, Peter M A

    2013-01-01

    We study the influence of noise on information transmission in the form of packages shipped between nodes of hierarchical networks. Numerical simulations are performed for artificial tree networks, scale-free Ravasz-Barabási networks as well for a real network formed by email addresses of former Enron employees. Two types of noise are considered. One is related to packet dynamics and is responsible for a random part of packets paths. The second one originates from random changes in initial network topology. We find that the information transfer can be enhanced by the noise. The system possesses optimal performance when both kinds of noise are tuned to specific values, this corresponds to the Stochastic Resonance phenomenon. There is a non-trivial synergy present for both noisy components. We found also that hierarchical networks built of nodes of various degrees are more efficient in information transfer than trees with a fixed branching factor.

  6. Quantum Ising model on hierarchical structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhifang; Tao Ruibao.

    1989-11-01

    A quantum Ising chain with both the exchange couplings and the transverse fields arranged in a hierarchical way is considered. Exact analytical results for the critical line and energy gap are obtained. It is shown that when R 1 not= R 2 , where R 1 and R 2 are the hierarchical parameters for the exchange couplings and the transverse fields, respectively, the system undergoes a phase transition in a different universality class from the pure quantum Ising chain with R 1 =R 2 =1. On the other hand, when R 1 =R 2 =R, there exists a critical value R c dependent on the furcating number of the hierarchy. In case of R > R c , the system is shown to exhibit as Ising-like critical point with the critical behaviour the same as in the pure case, while for R c the system belongs to another universality class. (author). 19 refs, 2 figs

  7. Hierarchical State Machines as Modular Horn Clauses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre-Loïc Garoche

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In model based development, embedded systems are modeled using a mix of dataflow formalism, that capture the flow of computation, and hierarchical state machines, that capture the modal behavior of the system. For safety analysis, existing approaches rely on a compilation scheme that transform the original model (dataflow and state machines into a pure dataflow formalism. Such compilation often result in loss of important structural information that capture the modal behaviour of the system. In previous work we have developed a compilation technique from a dataflow formalism into modular Horn clauses. In this paper, we present a novel technique that faithfully compile hierarchical state machines into modular Horn clauses. Our compilation technique preserves the structural and modal behavior of the system, making the safety analysis of such models more tractable.

  8. Hierarchical control system of advanced robot manipulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oomichi, Takeo; Okino, Akihisa; Nishihara, Masatoshi; Sakamoto, Taizou; Matsuda, Koichi; Ohnishi, Ken

    1990-01-01

    We introduce a double arm with 4-finger's manipulator system which process the large volume of information at high speed. This is under research/development many type of works in the harsh condition. Namely, hierarchization of instruction unit in which motion control system as real time processing unit, and task planning unit as non-real time processing unit, interface with operation through the task planning unit has been made. Also, high speed processing of large volume information has been realized by decentralizing the motion control unit by function, hierarchizing the high speed processing unit, and developing high speed transmission, IC which does not depend on computer OS to avoid the delay in transmission. (author)

  9. Hierarchically structured distributed microprocessor network for control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenwood, J.R.; Holloway, F.W.; Rupert, P.R.; Ozarski, R.G.; Suski, G.J.

    1979-01-01

    To satisfy a broad range of control-analysis and data-acquisition requirements for Shiva, a hierarchical, computer-based, modular-distributed control system was designed. This system handles the more than 3000 control elements and 1000 data acquisition units in a severe high-voltage, high-current environment. The control system design gives one a flexible and reliable configuration to meet the development milestones for Shiva within critical time limits

  10. Preliminary results from the hierarchical glitch pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, Soma

    2007-01-01

    This paper reports on the preliminary results obtained from the hierarchical glitch classification pipeline on LIGO data. The pipeline that has been under construction for the past year is now complete and end-to-end tested. It is ready to generate analysis results on a daily basis. The details of the pipeline, the classification algorithms employed and the results obtained with one days analysis on the gravitational wave and several auxiliary and environmental channels from all three LIGO detectors are discussed

  11. Hierarchical Fiber Structures Made by Electrospinning Polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reneker, Darrell H.

    2009-03-01

    A filter for water purification that is very thin, with small interstices and high surface area per unit mass, can be made with nanofibers. The mechanical strength of a very thin sheet of nanofibers is not great enough to withstand the pressure drop of the fluid flowing through. If the sheet of nanofibers is made thicker, the strength will increase, but the flow will be reduced to an impractical level. An optimized filter can be made with nanometer scale structures supported on micron scale structures, which are in turn supported on millimeter scale structures. This leads to a durable hierarchical structure to optimize the filtration efficiency with a minimum amount of material. Buckling coils,ootnotetextTao Han, Darrell H Reneker, Alexander L. Yarin, Polymer, Volume 48, issue 20 (September 21, 2007), p. 6064-6076. electrical bending coilsootnotetextDarrell H. Reneker and Alexander L. Yarin, Polymer, Volume 49, Issue 10 (2008) Pages 2387-2425, DOI:10.1016/j.polymer.2008.02.002. Feature Article. and pendulum coilsootnotetextT. Han, D.H. Reneker, A.L. Yarin, Polymer, Volume 49, (2008) Pages 2160-2169, doi:10.1016/jpolymer.2008.01.0487878. spanning dimensions from a few microns to a few centimeters can be collected from a single jet by controlling the position and motion of a collector. Attractive routes to the design and construction of hierarchical structures for filtration are based on nanofibers supported on small coils that are in turn supported on larger coils, which are supported on even larger overlapping coils. ``Such top-down'' hierarchical structures are easy to make by electrospinning. In one example, a thin hierarchical structure was made, with a high surface area and small interstices, having an open area of over 50%, with the thinnest fibers supported at least every 15 microns.

  12. Hierarchical video summarization based on context clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Belle L.; Smith, John R.

    2003-11-01

    A personalized video summary is dynamically generated in our video personalization and summarization system based on user preference and usage environment. The three-tier personalization system adopts the server-middleware-client architecture in order to maintain, select, adapt, and deliver rich media content to the user. The server stores the content sources along with their corresponding MPEG-7 metadata descriptions. In this paper, the metadata includes visual semantic annotations and automatic speech transcriptions. Our personalization and summarization engine in the middleware selects the optimal set of desired video segments by matching shot annotations and sentence transcripts with user preferences. Besides finding the desired contents, the objective is to present a coherent summary. There are diverse methods for creating summaries, and we focus on the challenges of generating a hierarchical video summary based on context information. In our summarization algorithm, three inputs are used to generate the hierarchical video summary output. These inputs are (1) MPEG-7 metadata descriptions of the contents in the server, (2) user preference and usage environment declarations from the user client, and (3) context information including MPEG-7 controlled term list and classification scheme. In a video sequence, descriptions and relevance scores are assigned to each shot. Based on these shot descriptions, context clustering is performed to collect consecutively similar shots to correspond to hierarchical scene representations. The context clustering is based on the available context information, and may be derived from domain knowledge or rules engines. Finally, the selection of structured video segments to generate the hierarchical summary efficiently balances between scene representation and shot selection.

  13. Internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model

    OpenAIRE

    RAHMANI, Samaneh

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. Present paper has been developed with the title of internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model. Presenting the question: Today Internet is an important channel in marketing and advertising. The reason for this could be the ability of the Internet to reduce costs and people’s access to online services[1]. Also advertisers can easily access a multitude of users and communicate with them at low cost [9]. On the other hand, compared to traditional advertising, interne...

  14. A Hierarchical Agency Model of Deposit Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Carroll; Shino Takayama

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a hierarchical agency model of deposit insurance. The main purpose is to undertake a game theoretic analysis of the consequences of deposit insurance schemes and their effects on monitoring incentives for banks. Using this simple framework, we analyze both risk- independent and risk-dependent premium schemes along with reserve requirement constraints. The results provide policymakers with not only a better understanding of the effects of deposit insurance on welfare and th...

  15. Hierarchical antifouling brushes for biosensing applications

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    de los Santos Pereira, Andres; Riedel, Tomáš; Brynda, Eduard; Rodriguez-Emmenegger, Cesar

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 202, 31 October (2014), s. 1313-1321 ISSN 0925-4005 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP205/12/1702; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.30.0029; GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0109 Institutional support: RVO:61389013 Keywords : hierarchically structured brushes * affinity biosensors * fouling Subject RIV: CE - Biochemistry Impact factor: 4.097, year: 2014

  16. Hydrologic Landscape Classification to Estimate Bristol Bay Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    The use of hydrologic landscapes has proven to be a useful tool for broad scale assessment and classification of landscapes across the United States. These classification systems help organize larger geographical areas into areas of similar hydrologic characteristics based on cl...

  17. Empirical Bayes Estimation of Proportions in Several Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    Street NW Washington, DC 20208 Dr. William Graham Testing Directorate 1 Dr. Lorraine D. Eyde MEPCOM/MEPCT-P Personnel R&D Center Ft. Sheridan, IL...D-53 BONN 1, GERMANY Princeton, NJ 08540 1 Dr. Mark D. Reckase Dr. Gary Marco Educational Psychology Dept. Educational Testing Service University of...GED Testing Service, Suite 20 Columbia, SC 29208 One Dupont Cirle, NW Washington, DC 20036 1 PROF. FUMIKO SAMEJIMA DEPT. OF PSYCHOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF

  18. Unique thermal record in False Bay

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Grundlingh, ML

    1993-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade False Bay has assumed a prime position in terms of research in to large South African bays. This is manifested by investigations that cover flow conditions modelling, thermal structure, management, biology and nutrients, geology...

  19. Safety culture development at Daya Bay NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shanming

    2001-01-01

    From view on Organization Behavior theory, the concept, development and affecting factors of safety culture are introduced. The focuses are on the establishment, development and management practice for safety culture at Daya Bay NPP. A strong safety culture, also demonstrated, has contributed greatly to improving performance at Daya Bay

  20. The Holocene History of Placentia Bay, Newfoundland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sheldon, Christina; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Reynisson, Njall

    2013-01-01

    Marine sediments analyzed from cores taken in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland, located in the Labrador Sea, captured oceanographic and climatic changes from the end of the Younger Dryas through the Holocene. Placentia Bay is an ideal site to capture changes in both the south-flowing Labrador Current ...

  1. Towards a sustainable future in Hudson Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrainetz, G.

    1991-01-01

    To date, ca $40-50 billion has been invested in or committed to hydroelectric development on the rivers feeding Hudson Bay. In addition, billions more have been invested in land uses such as forestry and mining within the Hudson Bay drainage basin. However, there has never been a study of the possible impacts on Hudson Bay resulting from this activity. Neither has there been any federal environmental assessment on any of the economic developments that affect Hudson Bay. To fill this gap in knowledge, the Hudson Bay Program was established. The program will not conduct scientific field research but will rather scan the published literature and consult with leading experts in an effort to identify biophysical factors that are likely to be significantly affected by the cumulative influence of hydroelectric and other developments within and outside the region. An annotated bibliography on Hudson Bay has been completed and used to prepare a science overview paper, which will be circulated for comment, revised, and used as the basis for a workshop on cumulative effects in Hudson Bay. Papers will then be commissioned for a second workshop to be held in fall 1993. A unique feature of the program is its integration of traditional ecological knowledge among the Inuit and Cree communities around Hudson Bay with the scientific approach to cumulative impact assessment. One goal of the program is to help these communities bring forward their knowledge in such a way that it can be integrated into the cumulative effects assessment

  2. On hierarchical solutions to the BBGKY hierarchy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, A. J. S.

    1988-01-01

    It is thought that the gravitational clustering of galaxies in the universe may approach a scale-invariant, hierarchical form in the small separation, large-clustering regime. Past attempts to solve the Born-Bogoliubov-Green-Kirkwood-Yvon (BBGKY) hierarchy in this regime have assumed a certain separable hierarchical form for the higher order correlation functions of galaxies in phase space. It is shown here that such separable solutions to the BBGKY equations must satisfy the condition that the clustered component of the solution has cluster-cluster correlations equal to galaxy-galaxy correlations to all orders. The solutions also admit the presence of an arbitrary unclustered component, which plays no dyamical role in the large-clustering regime. These results are a particular property of the specific separable model assumed for the correlation functions in phase space, not an intrinsic property of spatially hierarchical solutions to the BBGKY hierarchy. The observed distribution of galaxies does not satisfy the required conditions. The disagreement between theory and observation may be traced, at least in part, to initial conditions which, if Gaussian, already have cluster correlations greater than galaxy correlations.

  3. Hierarchical unilamellar vesicles of controlled compositional heterogeneity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maik Hadorn

    Full Text Available Eukaryotic life contains hierarchical vesicular architectures (i.e. organelles that are crucial for material production and trafficking, information storage and access, as well as energy production. In order to perform specific tasks, these compartments differ among each other in their membrane composition and their internal cargo and also differ from the cell membrane and the cytosol. Man-made structures that reproduce this nested architecture not only offer a deeper understanding of the functionalities and evolution of organelle-bearing eukaryotic life but also allow the engineering of novel biomimetic technologies. Here, we show the newly developed vesicle-in-water-in-oil emulsion transfer preparation technique to result in giant unilamellar vesicles internally compartmentalized by unilamellar vesicles of different membrane composition and internal cargo, i.e. hierarchical unilamellar vesicles of controlled compositional heterogeneity. The compartmentalized giant unilamellar vesicles were subsequently isolated by a separation step exploiting the heterogeneity of the membrane composition and the encapsulated cargo. Due to the controlled, efficient, and technically straightforward character of the new preparation technique, this study allows the hierarchical fabrication of compartmentalized giant unilamellar vesicles of controlled compositional heterogeneity and will ease the development of eukaryotic cell mimics that resemble their natural templates as well as the fabrication of novel multi-agent drug delivery systems for combination therapies and complex artificial microreactors.

  4. Hierarchically structured materials for lithium batteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Jie; Zheng, Jianming; Li, Xiaolin; Shao, Yuyan; Zhang, Ji-Guang

    2013-01-01

    The lithium-ion battery (LIB) is one of the most promising power sources to be deployed in electric vehicles, including solely battery powered vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and hybrid electric vehicles. With the increasing demand for devices of high-energy densities (>500 Wh kg −1 ), new energy storage systems, such as lithium–oxygen (Li–O 2 ) batteries and other emerging systems beyond the conventional LIB, have attracted worldwide interest for both transportation and grid energy storage applications in recent years. It is well known that the electrochemical performance of these energy storage systems depends not only on the composition of the materials, but also on the structure of the electrode materials used in the batteries. Although the desired performance characteristics of batteries often have conflicting requirements with the micro/nano-structure of electrodes, hierarchically designed electrodes can be tailored to satisfy these conflicting requirements. This work will review hierarchically structured materials that have been successfully used in LIB and Li–O 2 batteries. Our goal is to elucidate (1) how to realize the full potential of energy materials through the manipulation of morphologies, and (2) how the hierarchical structure benefits the charge transport, promotes the interfacial properties and prolongs the electrode stability and battery lifetime. (paper)

  5. Anisotropic and Hierarchical Porosity in Multifunctional Ceramics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtner, Aaron Zev

    The performance of multifunctional porous ceramics is often hindered by the seemingly contradictory effects of porosity on both mechanical and non-structural properties and yet a sufficient body of knowledge linking microstructure to these properties does not exist. Using a combination of tailored anisotropic and hierarchical materials, these disparate effects may be reconciled. In this project, a systematic investigation of the processing, characterization and properties of anisotropic and isotropic hierarchically porous ceramics was conducted. The system chosen was a composite ceramic intended as the cathode for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). Comprehensive processing investigations led to the development of approaches to make hierarchical, anisotropic porous microstructures using directional freeze-casting of well dispersed slurries. The effect of all the important processing parameters was investigated. This resulted in an ability to tailor and control the important microstructural features including the scale of the microstructure, the macropore size and total porosity. Comparable isotropic porous ceramics were also processed using fugitive pore formers. A suite of characterization techniques including x-ray tomography and 3-D sectional scanning electron micrographs (FIB-SEM) was used to characterize and quantify the green and partially sintered microstructures. The effect of sintering temperature on the microstructure was quantified and discrete element simulations (DEM) were used to explain the experimental observations. Finally, the comprehensive mechanical properties, at room temperature, were investigated, experimentally and using DEM, for the different microstructures.

  6. Statistical dynamics of ultradiffusion in hierarchical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, S.

    1987-01-01

    In many types of disordered systems which exhibit frustration and competition, an ultrametric topology is found to exist in the space of allowable states. This ultrametric topology of states is associated with a hierarchical relaxation process called ultradiffusion. Ultradiffusion occurs in hierarchical non-linear (HNL) dynamical systems when constraints cause large scale, slow modes of motion to be subordinated to small scale, fast modes. Examples of ultradiffusion are found throughout condensed matter physics and critical phenomena (e.g. the states of spin glasses), in biophysics (e.g. the states of Hopfield networks) and in many other fields including layered computing based upon nonlinear dynamics. The statistical dynamics of ultradiffusion can be treated as a random walk on an ultrametric space. For reversible bifurcating ultrametric spaces the evolution equation governing the probability of a particle being found at site i at time t has a highly degenerate transition matrix. This transition matrix has a fractal geometry similar to the replica form proposed for spin glasses. The authors invert this fractal matrix using a recursive quad-tree (QT) method. Possible applications of hierarchical systems to communications and symbolic computing are discussed briefly

  7. Estimation of the inverse Weibull distribution based on progressively censored data: Comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musleh, Rola M.; Helu, Amal

    2014-01-01

    In this article we consider statistical inferences about the unknown parameters of the Inverse Weibull distribution based on progressively type-II censoring using classical and Bayesian procedures. For classical procedures we propose using the maximum likelihood; the least squares methods and the approximate maximum likelihood estimators. The Bayes estimators are obtained based on both the symmetric and asymmetric (Linex, General Entropy and Precautionary) loss functions. There are no explicit forms for the Bayes estimators, therefore, we propose Lindley's approximation method to compute the Bayes estimators. A comparison between these estimators is provided by using extensive simulation and three criteria, namely, Bias, mean squared error and Pitman nearness (PN) probability. It is concluded that the approximate Bayes estimators outperform the classical estimators most of the time. Real life data example is provided to illustrate our proposed estimators. - Highlights: • We consider progressively type-II censored data from the Inverse Weibull distribution (IW). • We derive MLEs, approximate MLEs, LS and Bayes estimate methods of scale and shape parameters of the IW. • Bayes estimator of shape parameter cannot be expressed in closed forms. • We suggest using Lindley's approximation. • We conclude that the Bayes estimates outperform the classical methods

  8. AutoBayes Program Synthesis System Users Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Johann; Jafari, Hamed; Pressburger, Tom; Denney, Ewen; Buntine, Wray; Fischer, Bernd

    2008-01-01

    Program synthesis is the systematic, automatic construction of efficient executable code from high-level declarative specifications. AutoBayes is a fully automatic program synthesis system for the statistical data analysis domain; in particular, it solves parameter estimation problems. It has seen many successful applications at NASA and is currently being used, for example, to analyze simulation results for Orion. The input to AutoBayes is a concise description of a data analysis problem composed of a parameterized statistical model and a goal that is a probability term involving parameters and input data. The output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code computing the values for those parameters that maximize the probability term. AutoBayes can solve many subproblems symbolically rather than having to rely on numeric approximation algorithms, thus yielding effective, efficient, and compact code. Statistical analysis is faster and more reliable, because effort can be focused on model development and validation rather than manual development of solution algorithms and code.

  9. Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-12-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning the underlying covariance structure are evaluated using (fractional) Bayes factor tests. The support for a unidimensional factor (i.e., assumption of local independence) and differential item functioning are evaluated by testing the covariance components. The posterior distribution of common covariance components is obtained in closed form by transforming latent responses with an orthogonal (Helmert) matrix. This posterior distribution is defined as a shifted-inverse-gamma, thereby introducing a default prior and a balanced prior distribution. Based on that, an MCMC algorithm is described to estimate all model parameters and to compute (fractional) Bayes factor tests. Simulation studies are used to show that the (fractional) Bayes factor tests have good properties for testing the underlying covariance structure of binary response data. The method is illustrated with two real data studies.

  10. Variations in water clarity and bottom albedo in Florida Bay from 1985 to 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stumpf, R.P.; Frayer, M.L.; Durako, M.J.; Brock, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    Following extensive seagrass die-offs of the late 1980s and early 1990s, Florida Bay reportedly had significant declines in water clarity due to turbidity and algal blooms. Scant information exists on the extent of the decline, as this bay was not investigated for water quality concerns before the die-offs and limited areas were sampled after the primary die-off. We use imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to examine water clarity in Florida Bay for the period 1985 to 1997. The AVHRR provides data on nominal water reflectance and estimated fight attenuation, which are used here to describe turbidity conditions in the bay on a seasonal basis. In situ observations on changes in seagrass abundance within the bay, combined with the satellite data, provide additional insights into losses of seagrass. The imagery shows an extensive region to the west of Florida Bay having increased reflectance and fight attenuation in both winter and summer beginning in winter of 1988. These increases are consistent with a change from dense seagrass to sparse or negligible cover. Approximately 200 km2 of these offshore seagrasses may have been lost during the primary die-off (1988 through 1991), significantly more than in the bay. The imagery shows the distribution and timing of increased turbidity that followed the die-offs in the northwestern regions of the bay, exemplified in Rankin Lake and Johnson Key Basin, and indicates that about 200 km2 of dense seagrass may have been lost or severely degraded within the bay from the start of the die-off. The decline in water clarity has continued in the northwestern bay since 1991. The area west of the Everglades National Park boundaries has shown decreases in both winter turbidity and summer reflectances, suggestive of partial seagrass recovery. Areas of low reflectance associated with a major Syringodium filiforme seagrass meadow north of Marathon (Vaca Key, in the Florida Keys) appear to have expanded westward

  11. Atmospheric deposition of organochlorine contaminants to Galveston Bay, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, June-Soo; Wade, Terry L.; Sweet, Stephen

    Atmospheric monitoring of PCBs and chlorinated pesticides (e.g., HCHs, chlordanes, and DDTs) in Galveston Bay was conducted at Seabrook, Texas. Air and wet deposition samples were collected from 2 February 1995 and continued through 6 August 1996. Vapor total PCB ( tPCB) concentrations in air ranged from 0.21 to 4.78 ng m -3 with a dominance of tri-chlorinated PCBs. Dissolved tPCBs in rain ranged from 0.08 to 3.34 ng l -1, with tetra-chlorinated PCBs predominating. The predominant isomers found in air and rain were α- and γ-HCH, α- and γ-chlordanes, 4,4'-DDT, and dieldrin. The concentrations of PCBs and pesticides in the air and rain revealed no clear seasonal trend. Elevated levels of PCBs in the air occurred when temperatures were high and wind came from urban and industrialized areas (S, SW, NW, and W of the site). Concentrations of HCHs were elevated in April, May, and October, perhaps due to local and/or regional applications of γ-HCH (lindane). Other pesticides showed no notable temporal variation. When winds originated from the Gulf of Mexico (southeasterly), lower concentrations of organochlorines were detected in the air. The direct deposition rate (wet+dry) of PCBs to Galveston Bay (6.40 μg m -2 yr -1) was significantly higher than that of pesticides by a factor of 5-10. The net flux from gas exchange estimated for PCBs was from Galveston Bay water to the atmosphere (78 μg m -2 yr -1). Gas exchange of PCBs from bay water to the atmosphere was the dominant flux.

  12. Hierarchical Models for Type Ia Supernova Light Curves in the Optical and Near Infrared

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Kaisey; Narayan, G.; Kirshner, R. P.

    2011-01-01

    I have constructed a comprehensive statistical model for Type Ia supernova optical and near infrared light curves. Since the near infrared light curves are excellent standard candles and are less sensitive to dust extinction and reddening, the combination of near infrared and optical data better constrains the host galaxy extinction and improves the precision of distance predictions to SN Ia. A hierarchical probabilistic model coherently accounts for multiple random and uncertain effects, including photometric error, intrinsic supernova light curve variations and correlations across phase and wavelength, dust extinction and reddening, peculiar velocity dispersion and distances. An improved BayeSN MCMC code is implemented for computing probabilistic inferences for individual supernovae and the SN Ia and host galaxy dust populations. I use this hierarchical model to analyze nearby Type Ia supernovae with optical and near infared data from the PAIRITEL, CfA3, and CSP samples and the literature. Using cross-validation to test the robustness of the model predictions, I find that the rms Hubble diagram scatter of predicted distance moduli is 0.11 mag for SN with optical and near infrared data versus 0.15 mag for SN with only optical data. Accounting for the dispersion expected from random peculiar velocities, the rms intrinsic prediction error is 0.08-0.10 mag for SN with both optical and near infrared light curves. I discuss results for the inferred intrinsic correlation structures of the optical-NIR SN Ia light curves and the host galaxy dust distribution captured by the hierarchical model. The continued observation and analysis of Type Ia SN in the optical and near infrared is important for improving their utility as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

  13. The numbers of ringed seals (Phoca hispida in Baffin Bay and associated waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael C S Kingsley

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available The size of the population of ringed seals (Phoca hispida inhabiting Baffin Bay and associated waters was estimated by two methods. An approximate model of the energetics of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus estimated an energetic need of about 16,000 MJ/bear per year. Modelled estimates of the energetic yield of a ringed seal population showed that a stable standing population of 140-170 ringed seals per bear would be needed to provide that much energy, assuming that all mortalities were due to polar bear predation. This result was sensitive to assumptions about the Field Metabolic Rate (FMR of the bears and the energetic yield of individual ringed seals, but less sensitive to assumptions about relative incidence of predation on different age classes of seal or the age structure of the polar bear population. Estimated sizes of polar bear populations in Baffin Bay and associated waters (total about 4,025, and of the standing population needed to support an estimated hunter kill of 100,000 yielded a population estimate of, very roughly, 1.2 million ringed seals. Estimates of ice areas and of the density of hauled out seals from aerial surveys were used to generate another approximate figure for the ringed seal population, which was about the same. The density of seals in the pack-ice area of Baffin Bay, which is imperfectly known, has a large influence on the latter estimate.

  14. Hierarchical nanostructures assembled from ultrathin Bi2WO6 nanoflakes and their visible-light induced photocatalytic property

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiong; Tian, Peng; Lin, Ying; Li, Li

    2015-01-01

    Graphical abstract: Hierarchical Bi 2 WO 6 nanostructures assembled from nanoflakes were successfully synthesized by a facile hydrothermal method. The excellent photocatalytic activity and recycling performance might be mainly ascribed to the unique hierarchical nanostructures and are expected to offer the nanostructures promising applications in the field of wastewater treatment. - Highlights: • Hierarchical Bi 2 WO 6 nanostructures assembled from nanoflakes were successfully synthesized by a facile hydrothermal method. • Visible-light-induced photocatalytic efficiency of the obtained nanoarchitectures was enhanced about 6 times. • A possible mechanism was proposed. - Abstract: With the aid of ethylene glycol and sodium dodecylbenzene sulfonate, the hierarchical Bi 2 WO 6 nanoarchitectures assembled from nanoflakes could be attained by a facile solvothermal method. The synthetic strategy is versatile and environmentally friendly and a plausible growth-assembly process was proposed for the formation of the hierarchical nanostructures. The visible-light-irradiated photocatalytic activity was estimated by the degradation of rhodamine B. Compared with the sample prepared by a solid-state reaction, the visible-light-induced photocatalytic efficiency of the nanostructures was enhanced about 6 times. The photocatalysis tests show that the nanostructures exhibit excellent photocatalytic activity and recycling performance, which were mainly ascribed to the unique hierarchical nanostructures and are expected to offer promising applications in the field of wastewater treatment

  15. Mangrove Forest Structure in Ungwana Bay, Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bundotich, G; Karacchi, M.; Kairo, J.G.

    2007-01-01

    Forest structure and natural regeneration was investigated in a 12-year-old Rhizophoria reforested stand at Gazi bay, Kenya. Within 10* 10m 2 plots, tree height and stem diameter at breast height (DBH) of all trees of DBH>2.5 cm were determined. Stand volume was estimated by allometric equations derived from 50 harvested trees. The composition of juveniles was determined by within 5*5 m 2 inside the 10 * 10 plots. The stand density in Rhizophora plantation was 5,132 stems ha - 1, with a mean canopy height and stem diameter of 8.4+ 1 .1 m (range: 3.0 to 11.0 m) and 6.2+ 1 .87 cm (range: 2.5 to 12.4 cm) respectively. The stand volume was 103.80 m 3 ha-1 , stilt roots and branches combined was 43.09 m 3 ha-1 . Five species with juveniles; Rhizophora mucronata, Bruguieria gymnorrhiza, Ceriops tagal, Sonneretia alba and Xylocarpus granatum, were encountered with density of 4 886 juveniles ha-1 , with clustered distribution pattern

  16. An investigation of recent storm histories using Ground Penetrating Radar at Bay-Bay Spit, Bicol, Central Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzer, Adam D.; Pile, Jeremy; Soria, Janneli Lea A.; Siringan, Fernando; Daag, Arturo; Brill, Dominik

    2016-04-01

    The Philippine archipelago lies in the path of seasonal tropical cyclones, and much of the coast is prone to periodic inundation and overwash during storm surges. On example is typhoon Durian a category 3 storm that made landfall on the 30th November 2006, in Bicol province, on the east central Philippine coast. Satellite imagery from May 2007 reveal that Durian breached a sandy spit that runs southeast from the mouth of the Quinale River at Bay-Bay village towards Tabaco City. The imagery also showed that, although the breach site showed signs of partial recovery, geomorphological evidence of the inundation event associated with typhoon Durian still remains. In 2012 we mapped the geomorphological features of Durian. In June 2013 we returned to conduct Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys on the Bay-Bay spit to investigate potential subsurface evidence of previous storm events. The GPR surveys comprised five, 1.5 km, longshore profiles and 12 cross-shore profiles, of 50 m - 200 m in length. The GPR system used for this study was a Sensors and Software Noggin with 100 Mhz antennas. Near surface velocities were determine using Hyperbolae matching in order to estimate depth. Topographic and positional data were collected using a dGPS system. After minimal processing depth of penetration during the survey varied from 2 - 8 m. The cross-shore GPR profiles reveal at least two erosional events prior to 2006 typhoon Durian, with approximately 10 m of recovery and progradation between each erosion surface. The GPR profiles that captured the erosional features were revisited in September 2013 for trial pitting, stratigraphic description, and sediment sampling. Sediment cores were taken horizontally from the trench walls and vertically from the trench bases to date sediments using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL), which eventually could constrain the timing of the erosional surfaces.

  17. Saldanha Bay, South Africa I: the use of ocean colour remote ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The efficacy of ocean colour remote sensing in assessing the variability of phytoplankton biomass within Saldanha Bay is examined. Satellite estimates of chlorophyll a (Chl a) were obtained using the maximum peak-height (MPH) algorithm on full-resolution (300 m) data from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer ...

  18. Numerical modelling of tides and storm surges in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sindhu, B.

    were done. A storm surge model was developed to simulate total water levels and derived surges caused by low pressure systems identified during the past 27 years (1974-2000) in the Bay of Bengal. Study also estimated the return levels of extreme sea...

  19. Chemical absorption of acoustic energy due to an eddy in the western Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Navelkar, G.S.; Murty, T.V.R.; Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, C.S.

    Acoustic energy losses due to chemical absorption, within the western Bay of Bengal, in the presence of a subsurface meso-scale cold core eddy has been analysed. These estimates, for two different frequencies - 400 Hz and 10 kHz, find applications...

  20. Trace metal concentrations in zooplankton from the eastern Arabian Sea and western Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rejomon, G.; Balachandran, K.K.; Nair, M.; Joseph, T.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Achuthankutty, C.T.; Nair, K.K.C.; Pillai, N.G.K.

    Trace metal contents in zooplankton samples were estimated as a part of the Marine Research-Living Resource program at 24 stations in the Bay of Bengal (November, 2002) and 29 stations in the Arabian Sea (September-October, 2003) during the Cruises...

  1. Low complexity variational bayes iterative reviver for MIMO-OFDM systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiong, Chunlin; Wang, Hua; Zhang, Xiaoying

    2009-01-01

    A low complexity iterative receiver is proposed in this paper for MIMO-OFDM systems in time-varying multi-path channel based on the variational Bayes (VB) method. According to the VB method, the estimation algorithms of the signal distribution and the channel distribution are derived for the rece...

  2. Type Ia Supernova Light Curve Inference: Hierarchical Models for Nearby SN Ia in the Optical and Near Infrared

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Kaisey; Kirshner, R. P.; Narayan, G.; Wood-Vasey, W. M.; Friedman, A. S.; Hicken, M.

    2010-01-01

    I have constructed a comprehensive statistical model for Type Ia supernova light curves spanning optical through near infrared data simultaneously. The near infrared light curves are found to be excellent standard candles (sigma(MH) = 0.11 +/- 0.03 mag) that are less vulnerable to systematic error from dust extinction, a major confounding factor for cosmological studies. A hierarchical statistical framework incorporates coherently multiple sources of randomness and uncertainty, including photometric error, intrinsic supernova light curve variations and correlations, dust extinction and reddening, peculiar velocity dispersion and distances, for probabilistic inference with Type Ia SN light curves. Inferences are drawn from the full probability density over individual supernovae and the SN Ia and dust populations, conditioned on a dataset of SN Ia light curves and redshifts. To compute probabilistic inferences with hierarchical models, I have developed BayeSN, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on Gibbs sampling. This code explores and samples the global probability density of parameters describing individual supernovae and the population. I have applied this hierarchical model to optical and near infrared data of over 100 nearby Type Ia SN from PAIRITEL, the CfA3 sample, and the literature. Using this statistical model, I find that SN with optical and NIR data have a smaller residual scatter in the Hubble diagram than SN with only optical data. The continued study of Type Ia SN in the near infrared will be important for improving their utility as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

  3. Holy grail at Baglan Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, Jim

    1999-01-01

    The UK government's consent for the construction of a gas-fired power plant at Baglan Bay in South Wales is reported, and the growing popularity of economic combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants and the resulting environmental improvements are noted . The combining of gas and steam turbines, design developments, and the UK moratorium on planning consents for gas fired power plants are discussed. General Electric's H System technology which will lower the amount of energy lost in the conversion of natural gas to electricity is described, and details of the ten most problematic CCGTs in the UK are given. The domination of the CCGT global market by four manufacturers, and the pressure on manufacturers to develop their designs are considered. (UK)

  4. Intra- and inter-annual trends in phosphorus loads and comparison with nitrogen loads to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, J.A.; Scudlark, J.R.; Savidge, K.B.; Andres, A.S.; Stenger, R.J.; Ullman, W.J.

    2012-01-01

    Monthly phosphorus loads from uplands, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater to Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) were determined from October 1998 to April 2002 to evaluate the relative importance of these three sources of P to the Bay. Loads from a representative subwatershed were determined and used in an areal extrapolation to estimate the upland load from the entire watershed. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and dissolved organic P (DOP) are the predominant forms of P in baseflow and P loads from the watershed are highest during the summer months. Particulate phosphorus (PP) becomes more significant in stormflow and during periods with more frequent or larger storms. Atmospheric deposition of P is only a minor source of P to Rehoboth Bay. During the period of 1998-2002, wastewater was the dominant external source of P to Rehoboth Bay, often exceeding all other P sources combined. Since 2002, however, due to technical improvements to the sole wastewater plant discharging directly to the Bay, the wastewater contribution of P has been significantly reduced and upland waters are now the principal source of P on an annualized basis. Based on comparison of N and P loads, primary productivity and biomass carrying capacity in Rehoboth Bay should be limited by P availability. However, due to the contrasting spatial and temporal patterns of N and P loading and perhaps internal cycling within the ecosystem, spatial and temporal variations in N and P-limitation within Rehoboth Bay are likely. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Bayes classifiers for imbalanced traffic accidents datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujalli, Randa Oqab; López, Griselda; Garach, Laura

    2016-03-01

    Traffic accidents data sets are usually imbalanced, where the number of instances classified under the killed or severe injuries class (minority) is much lower than those classified under the slight injuries class (majority). This, however, supposes a challenging problem for classification algorithms and may cause obtaining a model that well cover the slight injuries instances whereas the killed or severe injuries instances are misclassified frequently. Based on traffic accidents data collected on urban and suburban roads in Jordan for three years (2009-2011); three different data balancing techniques were used: under-sampling which removes some instances of the majority class, oversampling which creates new instances of the minority class and a mix technique that combines both. In addition, different Bayes classifiers were compared for the different imbalanced and balanced data sets: Averaged One-Dependence Estimators, Weightily Average One-Dependence Estimators, and Bayesian networks in order to identify factors that affect the severity of an accident. The results indicated that using the balanced data sets, especially those created using oversampling techniques, with Bayesian networks improved classifying a traffic accident according to its severity and reduced the misclassification of killed and severe injuries instances. On the other hand, the following variables were found to contribute to the occurrence of a killed causality or a severe injury in a traffic accident: number of vehicles involved, accident pattern, number of directions, accident type, lighting, surface condition, and speed limit. This work, to the knowledge of the authors, is the first that aims at analyzing historical data records for traffic accidents occurring in Jordan and the first to apply balancing techniques to analyze injury severity of traffic accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  7. Sharing the Proceeds from a Hierarchical Venture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Tvede, Mich

    2017-01-01

    We consider the problem of distributing the proceeds generated from a joint venture in which the participating agents are hierarchically organized. We introduce and characterize a family of allocation rules where revenue ‘bubbles up’ in the hierarchy. The family is flexible enough to accommodate...... the no-transfer rule (where no revenue bubbles up) and the full-transfer rule (where all the revenues bubble up to the top of the hierarchy). Intermediate rules within the family are reminiscent of popular incentive mechanisms for social mobilization or multi-level marketing....

  8. Constructing storyboards based on hierarchical clustering analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasebe, Satoshi; Sami, Mustafa M.; Muramatsu, Shogo; Kikuchi, Hisakazu

    2005-07-01

    There are growing needs for quick preview of video contents for the purpose of improving accessibility of video archives as well as reducing network traffics. In this paper, a storyboard that contains a user-specified number of keyframes is produced from a given video sequence. It is based on hierarchical cluster analysis of feature vectors that are derived from wavelet coefficients of video frames. Consistent use of extracted feature vectors is the key to avoid a repetition of computationally-intensive parsing of the same video sequence. Experimental results suggest that a significant reduction in computational time is gained by this strategy.

  9. Hierarchical Network Design Using Simulated Annealing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomadsen, Tommy; Clausen, Jens

    2002-01-01

    networks are described and a mathematical model is proposed for a two level version of the hierarchical network problem. The problem is to determine which edges should connect nodes, and how demand is routed in the network. The problem is solved heuristically using simulated annealing which as a sub......-algorithm uses a construction algorithm to determine edges and route the demand. Performance for different versions of the algorithm are reported in terms of runtime and quality of the solutions. The algorithm is able to find solutions of reasonable quality in approximately 1 hour for networks with 100 nodes....

  10. Robust Pseudo-Hierarchical Support Vector Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Sass; Sjöstrand, Karl; Olafsdóttir, Hildur

    2007-01-01

    Support vector clustering (SVC) has proven an efficient algorithm for clustering of noisy and high-dimensional data sets, with applications within many fields of research. An inherent problem, however, has been setting the parameters of the SVC algorithm. Using the recent emergence of a method...... for calculating the entire regularization path of the support vector domain description, we propose a fast method for robust pseudo-hierarchical support vector clustering (HSVC). The method is demonstrated to work well on generated data, as well as for detecting ischemic segments from multidimensional myocardial...

  11. Implementation of hierarchical control in DC microgrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jin, Chi; Wang, Peng; Xiao, Jianfang

    2014-01-01

    of Technology, Singapore. The coordination control among multiple dc sources and energy storages is implemented using a novel hierarchical control technique. The bus voltage essentially acts as an indicator of supply-demand balance. A wireless control is implemented for the reliable operation of the grid....... A reasonable compromise between the maximum power harvest and effective battery management is further enhanced using the coordination control based on a central energy management system. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control strategies have been tested by a dc microgrid in WERL....

  12. Broca's area: a supramodal hierarchical processor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tettamanti, Marco; Weniger, Dorothea

    2006-05-01

    Despite the presence of shared characteristics across the different domains modulating Broca's area activity (e.g., structural analogies, as between language and music, or representational homologies, as between action execution and action observation), the question of what exactly the common denominator of such diverse brain functions is, with respect to the function of Broca's area, remains largely a debated issue. Here, we suggest that an important computational role of Broca's area may be to process hierarchical structures in a wide range of functional domains.

  13. SORM applied to hierarchical parallel system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2006-01-01

    of a particular first order reliability method (FORM) was first described in a celebrated paper by Rackwitz and Fiessler more than a quarter of a century ago. The method has become known as the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm. The original RF-algorithm as applied to a hierarchical random variable model...... is recapitulated so that a simple but quite effective accuracy improving calculation can be explained. A limit state curvature correction factor on the probability approximation is obtained from the final stop results of the RF-algorithm. This correction factor is based on Breitung’s asymptotic formula for second...

  14. Additive Manufacturing of Hierarchical Porous Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grote, Christopher John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division. Polymers and Coatings

    2016-08-30

    Additive manufacturing has become a tool of choice for the development of customizable components. Developments in this technology have led to a powerful array of printers that t serve a variety of needs. However, resin development plays a crucial role in leading the technology forward. This paper addresses the development and application of printing hierarchical porous structures. Beginning with the development of a porous scaffold, which can be functionalized with a variety of materials, and concluding with customized resins for metal, ceramic, and carbon structures.

  15. Flow and transport in hierarchically fractured systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karasaki, K.

    1993-01-01

    Preliminary results indicate that flow in the saturated zone at Yucca Mountain is controlled by fractures. A current conceptual model assumes that the flow in the fracture system can be approximately by a three-dimensionally interconnected network of linear conduits. The overall flow system of rocks at Yucca Mountain is considered to consist of hierarchically structured heterogeneous fracture systems of multiple scales. A case study suggests that it is more appropriate to use the flow parameters of the large fracture system for predicting the first arrival time, rather than using the bulk average parameters of the total system

  16. AN INTEGER PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL WORKFORCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BANU SUNGUR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The model presented in this paper is based on the model developed by Billionnet for the hierarchical workforce problem. In Billionnet’s Model, while determining the workers’ weekly costs, weekly working hours of workers are not taken into consideration. In our model, the weekly costs per worker are reduced in proportion to the working hours per week. Our model is illustrated on the Billionnet’s Example. The models in question are compared and evaluated on the basis of the results obtained from the example problem. A reduction is achieved in the total cost by the proposed model.

  17. Technique for fast and efficient hierarchical clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stork, Christopher

    2013-10-08

    A fast and efficient technique for hierarchical clustering of samples in a dataset includes compressing the dataset to reduce a number of variables within each of the samples of the dataset. A nearest neighbor matrix is generated to identify nearest neighbor pairs between the samples based on differences between the variables of the samples. The samples are arranged into a hierarchy that groups the samples based on the nearest neighbor matrix. The hierarchy is rendered to a display to graphically illustrate similarities or differences between the samples.

  18. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  19. Global Crop Monitoring: A Satellite-Based Hierarchical Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingfang Wu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Taking advantage of multiple new remote sensing data sources, especially from Chinese satellites, the CropWatch system has expanded the scope of its international analyses through the development of new indicators and an upgraded operational methodology. The approach adopts a hierarchical system covering four spatial levels of detail: global, regional, national (thirty-one key countries including China and “sub-countries” (for the nine largest countries. The thirty-one countries encompass more that 80% of both production and exports of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. The methodology resorts to climatic and remote sensing indicators at different scales. The global patterns of crop environmental growing conditions are first analyzed with indicators for rainfall, temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR as well as potential biomass. At the regional scale, the indicators pay more attention to crops and include Vegetation Health Index (VHI, Vegetation Condition Index (VCI, Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF as well as Cropping Intensity (CI. Together, they characterize crop situation, farming intensity and stress. CropWatch carries out detailed crop condition analyses at the national scale with a comprehensive array of variables and indicators. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, cropped areas and crop conditions are integrated to derive food production estimates. For the nine largest countries, CropWatch zooms into the sub-national units to acquire detailed information on crop condition and production by including new indicators (e.g., Crop type proportion. Based on trend analysis, CropWatch also issues crop production supply outlooks, covering both long-term variations and short-term dynamic changes in key food exporters and importers. The hierarchical approach adopted by CropWatch is the basis of the analyses of climatic and crop conditions assessments published in the quarterly “CropWatch bulletin” which

  20. 78 FR 62293 - Safety Zone, Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display, Oyster Bay; Oyster Bay, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-15

    ... Safety Zone, Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display, Oyster Bay; Oyster Bay, NY AGENCY: Coast... zone on the navigable waters of Oyster Bay near Oyster Bay, NY for the Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary... Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display is scheduled for October 19, 2013 and is one of...

  1. 46 CFR 7.20 - Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and easterly entrance to Long Island Sound, NY. 7.20 Section 7.20... Atlantic Coast § 7.20 Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island...

  2. 78 FR 27126 - East Bay, St. Andrews Bay and the Gulf of Mexico at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida; Restricted...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-09

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers 33 CFR Part 334 East Bay, St. Andrews Bay and the Gulf of Mexico at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida; Restricted Areas AGENCY: U.S. Army... read as follows: Sec. 334.665 East Bay, St. Andrews Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, Restricted Areas...

  3. 75 FR 15343 - Regulated Navigation Area: Narragansett Bay, RI and Mount Hope Bay, RI and MA, Including the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-29

    ...: Narragansett Bay, RI and Mount Hope Bay, RI and MA, Including the Providence River and Taunton River AGENCY... River and Mount Hope Bay in the vicinity of the two Brightman Street bridges have not been adopted and... Island and Mt. Hope Bay, MA.'' The notice was prompted primarily by two events: (1) The U.S. Army Corps...

  4. Description of gravity cores from San Pablo Bay and Carquinez Strait, San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodrow, Donald L.; John L. Chin,; Wong, Florence L.; Fregoso, Theresa A.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2017-06-27

    Seventy-two gravity cores were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1990, 1991, and 2000 from San Pablo Bay and Carquinez Strait, California. The gravity cores collected within San Pablo Bay contain bioturbated laminated silts and sandy clays, whole and broken bivalve shells (mostly mussels), fossil tube structures, and fine-grained plant or wood fragments. Gravity cores from the channel wall of Carquinez Strait east of San Pablo Bay consist of sand and clay layers, whole and broken bivalve shells (less than in San Pablo Bay), trace fossil tubes, and minute fragments of plant material.

  5. Hierarchic modeling of heat exchanger thermal hydraulics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horvat, A.; Koncar, B.

    2002-01-01

    Volume Averaging Technique (VAT) is employed in order to model the heat exchanger cross-flow as a porous media flow. As the averaging of the transport equations lead to a closure problem, separate relations are introduced to model interphase momentum and heat transfer between fluid flow and the solid structure. The hierarchic modeling is used to calculate the local drag coefficient C d as a function of Reynolds number Re h . For that purpose a separate model of REV is built and DNS of flow through REV is performed. The local values of heat transfer coefficient h are obtained from available literature. The geometry of the simulation domain and boundary conditions follow the geometry of the experimental test section used at U.C.L.A. The calculated temperature fields reveal that the geometry with denser pin-fins arrangement (HX1) heats fluid flow faster. The temperature field in the HX2 exhibits the formation of thermal boundary layer between pin-fins, which has a significant role in overall thermal performance of the heat exchanger. Although presented discrepancies of the whole-section drag coefficient C d are large, we believe that hierarchic modeling is an appropriate strategy for calculation of complex transport phenomena in heat exchanger geometries.(author)

  6. Hierarchical Diagnosis of Vocal Fold Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikkhah-Bahrami, Mansour; Ahmadi-Noubari, Hossein; Seyed Aghazadeh, Babak; Khadivi Heris, Hossein

    This paper explores the use of hierarchical structure for diagnosis of vocal fold disorders. The hierarchical structure is initially used to train different second-level classifiers. At the first level normal and pathological signals have been distinguished. Next, pathological signals have been classified into neurogenic and organic vocal fold disorders. At the final level, vocal fold nodules have been distinguished from polyps in organic disorders category. For feature selection at each level of hierarchy, the reconstructed signal at each wavelet packet decomposition sub-band in 5 levels of decomposition with mother wavelet of (db10) is used to extract the nonlinear features of self-similarity and approximate entropy. Also, wavelet packet coefficients are used to measure energy and Shannon entropy features at different spectral sub-bands. Davies-Bouldin criterion has been employed to find the most discriminant features. Finally, support vector machines have been adopted as classifiers at each level of hierarchy resulting in the diagnosis accuracy of 92%.

  7. Discrete hierarchical organization of social group sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, W-X; Sornette, D; Hill, R A; Dunbar, R I M

    2005-02-22

    The 'social brain hypothesis' for the evolution of large brains in primates has led to evidence for the coevolution of neocortical size and social group sizes, suggesting that there is a cognitive constraint on group size that depends, in some way, on the volume of neural material available for processing and synthesizing information on social relationships. More recently, work on both human and non-human primates has suggested that social groups are often hierarchically structured. We combine data on human grouping patterns in a comprehensive and systematic study. Using fractal analysis, we identify, with high statistical confidence, a discrete hierarchy of group sizes with a preferred scaling ratio close to three: rather than a single or a continuous spectrum of group sizes, humans spontaneously form groups of preferred sizes organized in a geometrical series approximating 3-5, 9-15, 30-45, etc. Such discrete scale invariance could be related to that identified in signatures of herding behaviour in financial markets and might reflect a hierarchical processing of social nearness by human brains.

  8. The concept of a hierarchical cosmos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grujić, P. V.

    2003-10-01

    The idea of a hierachically structured cosmos can be traced back to the Presocratic Hellada. In the fifth century BC Anaxagoras from Clazomenae developed an idea of a sort of fractal material world, by introducing the concept of seeds (spermata), or homoeomeries as Aristotle dubbed it later (Grujić 2001). Anaxagoras ideas have been grossly neglected during the Middle Ages, to be invoked by a number of post-Renaissance thinkers, like Leibniz, Kant, etc, though neither of them referred to their Greek predecessor. But the real resurrections of the hierarchical paradigm started at the beginning of the last century, with Fournier and Charlier (Grujić 2002). Second half of the 20th century witnessed an intensive development of the theoretical models based on the (multi)fractal paradigm, as well as a considerable body of the observational evidence in favour of the hierarchical cosmos (Saar 1988). We overview the state of the art of the cosmological fractal concept, both within the astrophysical (Sylos Labini et al 1998), methodological (Ribeiro 2001) and epistemological (Ribeiro and Videira 1998) context.

  9. A self-defining hierarchical data system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Self-Defining Data System (SDS) is a system which allows the creation of self-defining hierarchical data structures in a form which allows the data to be moved between different machine architectures. Because the structures are self-defining they can be used for communication between independent modules in a distributed system. Unlike disk-based hierarchical data systems such as Starlink's HDS, SDS works entirely in memory and is very fast. Data structures are created and manipulated as internal dynamic structures in memory managed by SDS itself. A structure may then be exported into a caller supplied memory buffer in a defined external format. This structure can be written as a file or sent as a message to another machine. It remains static in structure until it is reimported into SDS. SDS is written in portable C and has been run on a number of different machine architectures. Structures are portable between machines with SDS looking after conversion of byte order, floating point format, and alignment. A Fortran callable version is also available for some machines.

  10. Hierarchical prisoner’s dilemma in hierarchical game for resource competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimoto, Yuma; Sagawa, Takahiro; Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2017-07-01

    Dilemmas in cooperation are one of the major concerns in game theory. In a public goods game, each individual cooperates by paying a cost or defecting without paying it, and receives a reward from the group out of the collected cost. Thus, defecting is beneficial for each individual, while cooperation is beneficial for the group. Now, groups (say, countries) consisting of individuals also play games. To study such a multi-level game, we introduce a hierarchical game in which multiple groups compete for limited resources by utilizing the collected cost in each group, where the power to appropriate resources increases with the population of the group. Analyzing this hierarchical game, we found a hierarchical prisoner’s dilemma, in which groups choose the defecting policy (say, armament) as a Nash strategy to optimize each group’s benefit, while cooperation optimizes the total benefit. On the other hand, for each individual, refusing to pay the cost (say, tax) is a Nash strategy, which turns out to be a cooperation policy for the group, thus leading to a hierarchical dilemma. Here the group reward increases with the group size. However, we find that there exists an optimal group size that maximizes the individual payoff. Furthermore, when the population asymmetry between two groups is large, the smaller group will choose a cooperation policy (say, disarmament) to avoid excessive response from the larger group, and the prisoner’s dilemma between the groups is resolved. Accordingly, the relevance of this hierarchical game on policy selection in society and the optimal size of human or animal groups are discussed.

  11. Delaware River and Upper Bay Sediment Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The area of coverage consists of 192 square miles of benthic habitat mapped from 2005 to 2007 in the Delaware River and Upper Delaware Bay. The bottom sediment map...

  12. Willapa Bay, Washington Benthic Habitats 1995 Biotic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In June 1995, the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) acquired 295 true color aerial photographs (1:12,000) of Willapa Bay, Washington, from the State of...

  13. Willapa Bay, Washington Benthic Habitats 1995 Geoform

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In June 1995, the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) acquired 295 true color aerial photographs (1:12,000) of Willapa Bay, Washington, from the State of...

  14. San Antonio Bay 1986-1989

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The effect of salinity on utilization of shallow-water nursery habitats by aquatic fauna was assessed in San Antonio Bay, Texas. Overall, 272 samples were collected...

  15. Corpus ChristiEast Matagorda Bay 1986

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Patterns of habitat utilization were compared among transplanted and natural Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Halls Lake area of Chocolate Bay in the Galveston...

  16. San Francisco Bay Interferometric Bathymetry: Area B

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High resolution sonar data were collected over ultra-shallow areas of the San Francisco Bay estuary system. Bathymetric and acoustic backscatter data were collected...

  17. BENTHIC MACROFAUNAL ALIENS IN WILLAPA BAY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benthic macrofaunal samples were collected at random stations in Willapa Bay, WA, in four habitats [eelgrass (Zostera marina), Atlantic cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora), mud shrimp (Upogebia pugettensis), ghost shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis)] in 1996 and in seven habitats (Z...

  18. FL BAY SPECTROUT-POPULATION STATUS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Juvenile spotted seatrout and other sportfish are being monitored annually over a 6-mo period in Florida Bay to assess their abundance over time relative to...

  19. Willapa Bay, Washington Benthic Habitats 1995 Substrate

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In June 1995, the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) acquired 295 true color aerial photographs (1:12,000) of Willapa Bay, Washington, from the State of...

  20. Benthic harpacticoid copepods of Jiaozhou Bay, Qingdao

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lin; Li, Xinzheng

    2017-09-01

    The species richness of benthic harpacticoid copepod fauna in Jiaozhou Bay, Qingdao, on the southern coast of Shandong Peninsula, has not been comprehensively studied. We present a preliminary inventory of species for this region based on material found in nine sediment samples collected from 2011 to 2012. Our list includes 15 species belonging to 15 genera in 9 families, the most speciose family was the Miraciidae Dana, 1846 (seven species); all other families were represented by single species only. Sediment characteristics and depth are determined to be important environmental determinants of harpacticoid distribution in this region. We briefly detail the known distributions of species and provide a key to facilitate their identification. Both harpacticoid species richness and the species/genus ratio in Jiaozhou Bay are lower than in Bohai Gulf and Gwangyang Bay. The poor knowledge of the distribution of benthic harpacticoids, in addition to low sampling effort in Jiaozhou Bay, likely contribute to low species richness.

  1. Biscayne Bay Florida Bottlenose Dolphin Studies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets include a compilation of small vessel based studies of bottlenose dolphins that reside within Biscayne Bay, Florida, adjacent estuaries and nearshore...

  2. Analyzing thresholds and efficiency with hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houpt, Joseph W; Bittner, Jennifer L

    2018-05-10

    Ideal observer analysis is a fundamental tool used widely in vision science for analyzing the efficiency with which a cognitive or perceptual system uses available information. The performance of an ideal observer provides a formal measure of the amount of information in a given experiment. The ratio of human to ideal performance is then used to compute efficiency, a construct that can be directly compared across experimental conditions while controlling for the differences due to the stimuli and/or task specific demands. In previous research using ideal observer analysis, the effects of varying experimental conditions on efficiency have been tested using ANOVAs and pairwise comparisons. In this work, we present a model that combines Bayesian estimates of psychometric functions with hierarchical logistic regression for inference about both unadjusted human performance metrics and efficiencies. Our approach improves upon the existing methods by constraining the statistical analysis using a standard model connecting stimulus intensity to human observer accuracy and by accounting for variability in the estimates of human and ideal observer performance scores. This allows for both individual and group level inferences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Hierarchically organized layout for visualization of biochemical pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsay, Jyh-Jong; Wu, Bo-Liang; Jeng, Yu-Sen

    2010-01-01

    Many complex pathways are described as hierarchical structures in which a pathway is recursively partitioned into several sub-pathways, and organized hierarchically as a tree. The hierarchical structure provides a natural way to visualize the global structure of a complex pathway. However, none of the previous research on pathway visualization explores the hierarchical structures provided by many complex pathways. In this paper, we aim to develop algorithms that can take advantages of hierarchical structures, and give layouts that explore the global structures as well as local structures of pathways. We present a new hierarchically organized layout algorithm to produce layouts for hierarchically organized pathways. Our algorithm first decomposes a complex pathway into sub-pathway groups along the hierarchical organization, and then partition each sub-pathway group into basic components. It then applies conventional layout algorithms, such as hierarchical layout and force-directed layout, to compute the layout of each basic component. Finally, component layouts are joined to form a final layout of the pathway. Our main contribution is the development of algorithms for decomposing pathways and joining layouts. Experiment shows that our algorithm is able to give comprehensible visualization for pathways with hierarchies, cycles as well as complex structures. It clearly renders the global component structures as well as the local structure in each component. In addition, it runs very fast, and gives better visualization for many examples from previous related research. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Accident assessment under emergency situation in Daya Bay nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Ling; Chen Degan; Lin Shumou; Fu Guohui

    2004-01-01

    The accident assessment under emergency situation includes the accident status evaluation and its consequence estimation. This paper introduces evaluation methods for accident status and its assistant computer system (SESAME-GNP) utilized during the emergency situation in Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station (GNPS) in detail. At the same time, an improved accident consequence estimation system in GNPS (RACAS-GNP) is briefly described. With the improvement of the accident assessment systems, the capability of emergency response in GNPS is strengthened

  5. Temporal and spatial distribution of beryllium-7 in the sediments of Chesapeake Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dibb, J.E.; Rice, D.L.

    1989-01-01

    The sediment inventory of 7 Be was determined at six stations in the main stem of Chesapeake Bay nine times between April, 1986, and September, 1987. The inventories ranged from -2 . Comparison to the atmospherically supported 7 Be inventory (range 2-4 dpm cm -2 ) showed significant focusing of 7 Be in the sediments in the zone of the turbidity maximum during the summer, and suggested that the spatial distribution of 7 Be in the lower Bay apparently had a recurrence frequency greater than the sampling frequency in this investigation. The temporal pattern of 7 Be accumulation at the six stations over the first year of this investigation allowed estimation of sedimentation rates, which suggested that the processes governing the distribution of 7 Be in Chesapeake Bay sediments were similar to the processes determining sedimentation patterns over about the past 100 years. (author)

  6. Monitoring coastal water properties and current circulation with ERTS-1. [Delaware Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemas, V.; Otley, M.; Wethe, C.; Rogers, R.

    1974-01-01

    Imagery and digital tapes from nine successful ERTS-1 passes over Delaware Bay during different portions of the tidal cycle have been analyzed with special emphasis on turbidity, current circulation, waste disposal plumes and convergent boundaries between different water masses. ERTS-1 image radiance correlated well with Secchi depth and suspended sediment concentration. Circulation patterns observed by ERTS-1 during different parts of the tidal cycle, agreed well with predicted and measured currents throughout Delaware Bay. Convergent shear boundaries between different water masses were observed from ERTS-1. In several ERTS-1 frames, waste disposal plumes have been detected 36 miles off Delaware's Atlantic coast. The ERTS-1 results are being used to extend and verify hydrodynamic models of the bay, developed for predicting oil slick movement and estimating sediment transport.

  7. Basin-scale seasonal changes in marine free-living bacterioplankton community in the Ofunato Bay

    KAUST Repository

    Reza, Md. Shaheed

    2018-04-26

    The Ofunato Bay in the northeastern Pacific Ocean area of Japan possesses the highest biodiversity of marine organisms in the world and has attracted much attention due to its economic and environmental importance. We report here a shotgun metagenomic analysis of the year-round variation in free-living bacterioplankton collected across the entire length of the bay. Phylogenetic differences among spring, summer, autumn and winter bacterioplankton suggested that members of Proteobacteria tended to decrease at high water temperatures and increase at low temperatures. It was revealed that Candidatus Pelagibacter varied seasonally, reaching as much as 60% of all sequences at the genus level in the surface waters during winter. This increase was more evident in the deeper waters, where they reached up to 75%. The relative abundance of Planktomarina also rose during winter and fell during summer. A significant component of the winter bacterioplankton community was Archaea (mainly represented by Nitrosopumilus), as their relative abundance was very low during spring and summer but high during winter. In contrast, Actinobacteria and Cyanobacteria appeared to be higher in abundance during high-temperature periods. It was also revealed that Bacteroidetes constituted a significant component of the summer bacterioplankton community, being the second largest bacterial phylum detected in the Ofunato Bay. Its members, notably Polaribacter and Flavobacterium, were found to be high in abundance during spring and summer, particularly in the surface waters. Principal component analysis and hierarchal clustering analyses showed that the bacterial communities in the Ofunato Bay changed seasonally, likely caused by the levels of organic matter, which would be deeply mixed with surface runoff in the winter.

  8. A Glance at Bohai Bay Oil Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Shoubai

    1995-01-01

    @@ Chinese oil industry keeps on developing in 1994. The oil production of Bohai Bay Oil Province located in East China also keeps on growing. Geologically,the total area of Bohai Bay Basin is about 200 000 km2 and the main structural units are: Liaohe Depression, Huanghua Depression,Jizhong Depression, Linqing Depression, Jiyang Depression, Changwei Depression, Bozhong Depression,Chengning Uplift and Cangjing Uplift (see figure 1). Area of the main structural units is listed in following:

  9. Convergent evidence for hierarchical prediction networks from human electrocorticography and magnetoencephalography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Holly N; Blenkmann, Alejandro; Hughes, Laura E; Kochen, Silvia; Bekinschtein, Tristan A; Cam-Can; Rowe, James B

    2016-09-01

    We propose that sensory inputs are processed in terms of optimised predictions and prediction error signals within hierarchical neurocognitive models. The combination of non-invasive brain imaging and generative network models has provided support for hierarchical frontotemporal interactions in oddball tasks, including recent identification of a temporal expectancy signal acting on prefrontal cortex. However, these studies are limited by the need to invert magnetoencephalographic or electroencephalographic sensor signals to localise activity from cortical 'nodes' in the network, or to infer neural responses from indirect measures such as the fMRI BOLD signal. To overcome this limitation, we examined frontotemporal interactions estimated from direct cortical recordings from two human participants with cortical electrode grids (electrocorticography - ECoG). Their frontotemporal network dynamics were compared to those identified by magnetoencephalography (MEG) in forty healthy adults. All participants performed the same auditory oddball task with standard tones interspersed with five deviant tone types. We normalised post-operative electrode locations to standardised anatomic space, to compare across modalities, and inverted the MEG to cortical sources using the estimated lead field from subject-specific head models. A mismatch negativity signal in frontal and temporal cortex was identified in all subjects. Generative models of the electrocorticographic and magnetoencephalographic data were separately compared using the free-energy estimate of the model evidence. Model comparison confirmed the same critical features of hierarchical frontotemporal networks in each patient as in the group-wise MEG analysis. These features included bilateral, feedforward and feedback frontotemporal modulated connectivity, in addition to an asymmetric expectancy driving input on left frontal cortex. The invasive ECoG provides an important step in construct validation of the use of neural

  10. Particle-borne radionuclides as tracers for sediment in the Susquehanna River and Chesapeake Bay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donoghue, J F [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (USA). Dept. of Geology; Bricker, O P [Geological Survey, Reston, VA (USA). Water Resources Div.; Olsen, C R [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)

    1989-10-01

    The Chesapeake Bay receives nearly 1,000,000 tonnes of sediment annually from its major tributary, the Susquehanna River. The pattern of deposition of this sediment affects the lifetime of the estuarine resource and the fate of any sediment-borne contaminants. Previous estimates of the extent to which Susquehanna River sediment is transported down the Chesapeake have differed considerably. By use of reactor-generated radionuclides adsorbed on the river sediment, a sediment budget has been compiled for the upper Chesapeake Bay and the reservoirs on the lower Susquehanna. Reservoirs impound nearly 1,400,000 tonnes of sediment annually behind the power dams on the lower Susquehanna River. Without the dams, sediment delivery to the upper bay would more than double. The uppermost Chesapeake Bay, within and above the turbidity maximum, retains virtually all of the fluvial sediment delivered to it. The result is an annual sedimentation rate of approximately 3 mm yr{sup -1} in the upper bay, an infilling rate that is nearly equal to the regional rate of sea level rise. (author).

  11. A parameter quantifying radiation damping of bay oscillations excited by incident tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endoh, Takahiro; Inazu, Daisuke; Waseda, Takuji; Hibiya, Toshiyuki

    2018-04-01

    The transient response of a bay with a narrow mouth to incident tsunamis is interpreted as the convolution of the input signal with the impulse response obtained by an inverse Fourier transform of the response curve of the oscillatory system with one degree of freedom. The rate of radiation damping associated with energy escaping seaward through the bay mouth is expressed in terms of the quality factor Q, which determines the decaying envelope of the impulse response. The value of Q of the resonant peak is approximated by the ratio of the resonant frequency ω0 to the bandwidth between frequencies at which the power spectral density of sea level within the bay drops to half of the peak value. Since the shape of the frequency power spectrum during the tsunami event is almost similar to that in the normal state in the neighborhood of ω0, Q can be estimated from sea level datasets in the normal state. Although the amplitude and phase of the impulse response need to be adjusted using the first crest or trough of the observed leading wave, this approach proves to work well in examining the transient responses of Miyako Bay and Kushimoto Bay on the Japanese Pacific coast to incident tsunamis.

  12. Particle-borne radionuclides as tracers for sediment in the Susquehanna River and Chesapeake Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donoghue, J.F.

    1989-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay receives nearly 1,000,000 tonnes of sediment annually from its major tributary, the Susquehanna River. The pattern of deposition of this sediment affects the lifetime of the estuarine resource and the fate of any sediment-borne contaminants. Previous estimates of the extent to which Susquehanna River sediment is transported down the Chesapeake have differed considerably. By use of reactor-generated radionuclides adsorbed on the river sediment, a sediment budget has been compiled for the upper Chesapeake Bay and the reservoirs on the lower Susquehanna. Reservoirs impound nearly 1,400,000 tonnes of sediment annually behind the power dams on the lower Susquehanna River. Without the dams, sediment delivery to the upper bay would more than double. The uppermost Chesapeake Bay, within and above the turbidity maximum, retains virtually all of the fluvial sediment delivered to it. The result is an annual sedimentation rate of approximately 3 mm yr -1 in the upper bay, an infilling rate that is nearly equal to the regional rate of sea level rise. (author)

  13. Toxic phytoplankton in San Francisco Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Kristine M.; Garrison, David L.; Cloern, James E.

    1996-01-01

    The Regional Monitoring Program (RMP) was conceived and designed to document the changing distribution and effects of trace substances in San Francisco Bay, with focus on toxic contaminants that have become enriched by human inputs. However, coastal ecosystems like San Francisco Bay also have potential sources of naturally-produced toxic substances that can disrupt food webs and, under extreme circumstances, become threats to public health. The most prevalent source of natural toxins is from blooms of algal species that can synthesize metabolites that are toxic to invertebrates or vertebrates. Although San Francisco Bay is nutrient-rich, it has so far apparently been immune from the epidemic of harmful algal blooms in the world’s nutrient-enriched coastal waters. This absence of acute harmful blooms does not imply that San Francisco Bay has unique features that preclude toxic blooms. No sampling program has been implemented to document the occurrence of toxin-producing algae in San Francisco Bay, so it is difficult to judge the likelihood of such events in the future. This issue is directly relevant to the goals of RMP because harmful species of phytoplankton have the potential to disrupt ecosystem processes that support animal populations, cause severe illness or death in humans, and confound the outcomes of toxicity bioassays such as those included in the RMP. Our purpose here is to utilize existing data on the phytoplankton community of San Francisco Bay to provide a provisional statement about the occurrence, distribution, and potential threats of harmful algae in this Estuary.

  14. Gradient Analysis and Classification of Carolina Bay Vegetation: A Framework for Bay Wetlands Conservation and Restoration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diane De Steven,Ph.D.; Maureen Tone,PhD.

    1997-10-01

    This report address four project objectives: (1) Gradient model of Carolina bay vegetation on the SRS--The authors use ordination analyses to identify environmental and landscape factors that are correlated with vegetation composition. Significant factors can provide a framework for site-based conservation of existing diversity, and they may also be useful site predictors for potential vegetation in bay restorations. (2) Regional analysis of Carolina bay vegetation diversity--They expand the ordination analyses to assess the degree to which SRS bays encompass the range of vegetation diversity found in the regional landscape of South Carolina's western Upper Coastal Plain. Such comparisons can indicate floristic status relative to regional potentials and identify missing species or community elements that might be re-introduced or restored. (3) Classification of vegetation communities in Upper Coastal Plain bays--They use cluster analysis to identify plant community-types at the regional scale, and explore how this classification may be functional with respect to significant environmental and landscape factors. An environmentally-based classification at the whole-bay level can provide a system of templates for managing bays as individual units and for restoring bays to desired plant communities. (4) Qualitative model for bay vegetation dynamics--They analyze present-day vegetation in relation to historic land uses and disturbances. The distinctive history of SRS bays provides the possibility of assessing pathways of post-disturbance succession. They attempt to develop a coarse-scale model of vegetation shifts in response to changing site factors; such qualitative models can provide a basis for suggesting management interventions that may be needed to maintain desired vegetation in protected or restored bays.

  15. Wind effect on salt transport variability in the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandeep, K. K.; Pant, V.

    2017-12-01

    The Bay of Bengal (BoB) exhibits large spatial variability in sea surface salinity (SSS) pattern caused by its unique hydrological, meteorological and oceanographical characteristics. This SSS variability is largely controlled by the seasonally reversing monsoon winds and the associated currents. Further, the BoB receives substantial freshwater inputs through excess precipitation over evaporation and river discharge. Rivers like Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Krishna, Godavari, and Irawwady discharge annually a freshwater volume in range between 1.5 x 1012 and 1.83 x 1013 m3 into the bay. A major volume of this freshwater input to the bay occurs during the southwest monsoon (June-September) period. In the present study, a relative role of winds in the SSS variability in the bay is investigated by using an eddy-resolving three dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) numerical model. The model is configured with realistic bathymetry, coastline of study region and forced with daily climatology of atmospheric variables. River discharges from the major rivers are distributed in the model grid points representing their respective geographic locations. Salt transport estimate from the model simulation for realistic case are compared with the standard reference datasets. Further, different experiments were carried out with idealized surface wind forcing representing the normal, low, high, and very high wind speed conditions in the bay while retaining the realistic daily varying directions for all the cases. The experimental simulations exhibit distinct dispersal patterns of the freshwater plume and SSS in different experiments in response to the idealized winds. Comparison of the meridional and zonal surface salt transport estimated for each experiment showed strong seasonality with varying magnitude in the bay with a maximum spatial and temporal variability in the western and northern parts of the BoB.

  16. Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Hashing for Image Retrieval With Hierarchical Convolutional Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiaoqiang; Chen, Yaxiong; Li, Xuelong

    Hashing has been an important and effective technology in image retrieval due to its computational efficiency and fast search speed. The traditional hashing methods usually learn hash functions to obtain binary codes by exploiting hand-crafted features, which cannot optimally represent the information of the sample. Recently, deep learning methods can achieve better performance, since deep learning architectures can learn more effective image representation features. However, these methods only use semantic features to generate hash codes by shallow projection but ignore texture details. In this paper, we proposed a novel hashing method, namely hierarchical recurrent neural hashing (HRNH), to exploit hierarchical recurrent neural network to generate effective hash codes. There are three contributions of this paper. First, a deep hashing method is proposed to extensively exploit both spatial details and semantic information, in which, we leverage hierarchical convolutional features to construct image pyramid representation. Second, our proposed deep network can exploit directly convolutional feature maps as input to preserve the spatial structure of convolutional feature maps. Finally, we propose a new loss function that considers the quantization error of binarizing the continuous embeddings into the discrete binary codes, and simultaneously maintains the semantic similarity and balanceable property of hash codes. Experimental results on four widely used data sets demonstrate that the proposed HRNH can achieve superior performance over other state-of-the-art hashing methods.Hashing has been an important and effective technology in image retrieval due to its computational efficiency and fast search speed. The traditional hashing methods usually learn hash functions to obtain binary codes by exploiting hand-crafted features, which cannot optimally represent the information of the sample. Recently, deep learning methods can achieve better performance, since deep

  17. Mixing Bayes and empirical Bayes inference to anticipate the realization of engineering concerns about variant system designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, John; Walls, Lesley

    2011-01-01

    Mixing Bayes and Empirical Bayes inference provides reliability estimates for variant system designs by using relevant failure data - observed and anticipated - about engineering changes arising due to modification and innovation. A coherent inference framework is proposed to predict the realization of engineering concerns during product development so that informed decisions can be made about the system design and the analysis conducted to prove reliability. The proposed method involves combining subjective prior distributions for the number of engineering concerns with empirical priors for the non-parametric distribution of time to realize these concerns in such a way that we can cross-tabulate classes of concerns to failure events within time partitions at an appropriate level of granularity. To support efficient implementation, a computationally convenient hypergeometric approximation is developed for the counting distributions appropriate to our underlying stochastic model. The accuracy of our approximation over first-order alternatives is examined, and demonstrated, through an evaluation experiment. An industrial application illustrates model implementation and shows how estimates can be updated using information arising during development test and analysis.

  18. BOOK REVIEW OF "CHESAPEAKE BAY BLUES: SCIENCE, POLITICS, AND THE STRUGGLE TO SAVE THE BAY"

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a book review of "Chesapeake Bay Blues: Science, Politics, and the Struggle to Save the Bay". This book is very well written and provides an easily understandable description of the political challenges faced by those proposing new or more stringent environmental regulat...

  19. 77 FR 21890 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Sturgeon Bay, WI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-12

    ... Street and Maple-Oregon Bridges so vehicular traffic congestion would not develop on downtown Sturgeon... the efficient movement of vehicular traffic in Sturgeon Bay. The Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal is... experiences a significant increase in vehicular and vessel traffic during the peak tourist and navigation...

  20. 76 FR 28309 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Sturgeon Bay, WI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-17

    ... vehicular traffic congestion would not develop on downtown Sturgeon Bay streets due to unscheduled bridge... schedules during the peak tourist and navigation seasons to provide for the efficient movement of vehicular... between Lake Michigan and Green Bay. The area experiences a significant increase in vehicular and vessel...