Hidden-Markov-Model Analysis Of Telemanipulator Data
Hannaford, Blake; Lee, Paul
1991-01-01
Mathematical model and procedure based on hidden-Markov-model concept undergoing development for use in analysis and prediction of outputs of force and torque sensors of telerobotic manipulators. In model, overall task broken down into subgoals, and transition probabilities encode ease with which operator completes each subgoal. Process portion of model encodes task-sequence/subgoal structure, and probability-density functions for forces and torques associated with each state of manipulation encode sensor signals that one expects to observe at subgoal. Parameters of model constructed from engineering knowledge of task.
Distinguishing Hidden Markov Chains
Kiefer, Stefan; Sistla, A. Prasad
2015-01-01
Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of distinguishing two given HMCs based on an observation sequence that one of the HMCs generates. More precisely, given two HMCs and an observation sequence, a distinguishing algorithm is expected to identify the HMC that generates the observation sequence. Two HM...
Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.
Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A
2015-09-01
Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.
Partially Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma
1996-01-01
Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...
A Framework for Bioacoustic Vocalization Analysis Using Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ebenezer Out-Nyarko
2009-11-01
Full Text Available Using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs as a recognition framework for automatic classification of animal vocalizations has a number of benefits, including the ability to handle duration variability through nonlinear time alignment, the ability to incorporate complex language or recognition constraints, and easy extendibility to continuous recognition and detection domains. In this work, we apply HMMs to several different species and bioacoustic tasks using generalized spectral features that can be easily adjusted across species and HMM network topologies suited to each task. This experimental work includes a simple call type classification task using one HMM per vocalization for repertoire analysis of Asian elephants, a language-constrained song recognition task using syllable models as base units for ortolan bunting vocalizations, and a stress stimulus differentiation task in poultry vocalizations using a non-sequential model via a one-state HMM with Gaussian mixtures. Results show strong performance across all tasks and illustrate the flexibility of the HMM framework for a variety of species, vocalization types, and analysis tasks.
Barbu, Vlad
2008-01-01
Semi-Markov processes are much more general and better adapted to applications than the Markov ones because sojourn times in any state can be arbitrarily distributed, as opposed to the geometrically distributed sojourn time in the Markov case. This book concerns with the estimation of discrete-time semi-Markov and hidden semi-Markov processes
Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage
1996-01-01
Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....
Robertson, Colin; Sawford, Kate; Gunawardana, Walimunige S. N.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Nathoo, Farouk; Stephen, Craig
2011-01-01
Surveillance systems tracking health patterns in animals have potential for early warning of infectious disease in humans, yet there are many challenges that remain before this can be realized. Specifically, there remains the challenge of detecting early warning signals for diseases that are not known or are not part of routine surveillance for named diseases. This paper reports on the development of a hidden Markov model for analysis of frontline veterinary sentinel surveillance data from Sri Lanka. Field veterinarians collected data on syndromes and diagnoses using mobile phones. A model for submission patterns accounts for both sentinel-related and disease-related variability. Models for commonly reported cattle diagnoses were estimated separately. Region-specific weekly average prevalence was estimated for each diagnoses and partitioned into normal and abnormal periods. Visualization of state probabilities was used to indicate areas and times of unusual disease prevalence. The analysis suggests that hidden Markov modelling is a useful approach for surveillance datasets from novel populations and/or having little historical baselines. PMID:21949763
Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ntantamis, Christos
Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...
Hidden Markov model analysis of maternal behavior patterns in inbred and reciprocal hybrid mice.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Valeria Carola
Full Text Available Individual variation in maternal care in mammals shows a significant heritable component, with the maternal behavior of daughters resembling that of their mothers. In laboratory mice, genetically distinct inbred strains show stable differences in maternal care during the first postnatal week. Moreover, cross fostering and reciprocal breeding studies demonstrate that differences in maternal care between inbred strains persist in the absence of genetic differences, demonstrating a non-genetic or epigenetic contribution to maternal behavior. In this study we applied a mathematical tool, called hidden Markov model (HMM, to analyze the behavior of female mice in the presence of their young. The frequency of several maternal behaviors in mice has been previously described, including nursing/grooming pups and tending to the nest. However, the ordering, clustering, and transitions between these behaviors have not been systematically described and thus a global description of maternal behavior is lacking. Here we used HMM to describe maternal behavior patterns in two genetically distinct mouse strains, C57BL/6 and BALB/c, and their genetically identical reciprocal hybrid female offspring. HMM analysis is a powerful tool to identify patterns of events that cluster in time and to determine transitions between these clusters, or hidden states. For the HMM analysis we defined seven states: arched-backed nursing, blanket nursing, licking/grooming pups, grooming, activity, eating, and sleeping. By quantifying the frequency, duration, composition, and transition probabilities of these states we were able to describe the pattern of maternal behavior in mouse and identify aspects of these patterns that are under genetic and nongenetic inheritance. Differences in these patterns observed in the experimental groups (inbred and hybrid females were detected only after the application of HMM analysis whereas classical statistical methods and analyses were not able to
Hidden Markov models for sequence analysis: extension and analysis of the basic method
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hughey, Richard; Krogh, Anders Stærmose
1996-01-01
-maximization training procedure is relatively straight-forward. In this paper,we review the mathematical extensions and heuristics that move the method from the theoreticalto the practical. Then, we experimentally analyze the effectiveness of model regularization,dynamic model modification, and optimization strategies......Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a highly effective means of modeling a family of unalignedsequences or a common motif within a set of unaligned sequences. The trained HMM can then beused for discrimination or multiple alignment. The basic mathematical description of an HMMand its expectation....... Finally it is demonstrated on the SH2domain how a domain can be found from unaligned sequences using a special model type. Theexperimental work was completed with the aid of the Sequence Alignment and Modeling softwaresuite....
Häme, Yrjö; Angelini, Elsa D.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Barr, R. Graham; Laine, Andrew F.
2014-01-01
The extent of pulmonary emphysema is commonly estimated from CT images by computing the proportional area of voxels below a predefined attenuation threshold. However, the reliability of this approach is limited by several factors that affect the CT intensity distributions in the lung. This work presents a novel method for emphysema quantification, based on parametric modeling of intensity distributions in the lung and a hidden Markov measure field model to segment emphysematous regions. The framework adapts to the characteristics of an image to ensure a robust quantification of emphysema under varying CT imaging protocols and differences in parenchymal intensity distributions due to factors such as inspiration level. Compared to standard approaches, the present model involves a larger number of parameters, most of which can be estimated from data, to handle the variability encountered in lung CT scans. The method was used to quantify emphysema on a cohort of 87 subjects, with repeated CT scans acquired over a time period of 8 years using different imaging protocols. The scans were acquired approximately annually, and the data set included a total of 365 scans. The results show that the emphysema estimates produced by the proposed method have very high intra-subject correlation values. By reducing sensitivity to changes in imaging protocol, the method provides a more robust estimate than standard approaches. In addition, the generated emphysema delineations promise great advantages for regional analysis of emphysema extent and progression, possibly advancing disease subtyping. PMID:24759984
Under-reported data analysis with INAR-hidden Markov chains.
Fernández-Fontelo, Amanda; Cabaña, Alejandra; Puig, Pedro; Moriña, David
2016-11-20
In this work, we deal with correlated under-reported data through INAR(1)-hidden Markov chain models. These models are very flexible and can be identified through its autocorrelation function, which has a very simple form. A naïve method of parameter estimation is proposed, jointly with the maximum likelihood method based on a revised version of the forward algorithm. The most-probable unobserved time series is reconstructed by means of the Viterbi algorithm. Several examples of application in the field of public health are discussed illustrating the utility of the models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Evolving the structure of hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
won, K. J.; Prugel-Bennett, A.; Krogh, A.
2006-01-01
A genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed for finding the structure of hidden Markov Models (HMMs) used for biological sequence analysis. The GA is designed to preserve biologically meaningful building blocks. The search through the space of HMM structures is combined with optimization of the emission...... and transition probabilities using the classic Baum-Welch algorithm. The system is tested on the problem of finding the promoter and coding region of C. jejuni. The resulting HMM has a superior discrimination ability to a handcrafted model that has been published in the literature....
Fitting Hidden Markov Models to Psychological Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ingmar Visser
2002-01-01
Full Text Available Markov models have been used extensively in psychology of learning. Applications of hidden Markov models are rare however. This is partially due to the fact that comprehensive statistics for model selection and model assessment are lacking in the psychological literature. We present model selection and model assessment statistics that are particularly useful in applying hidden Markov models in psychology. These statistics are presented and evaluated by simulation studies for a toy example. We compare AIC, BIC and related criteria and introduce a prediction error measure for assessing goodness-of-fit. In a simulation study, two methods of fitting equality constraints are compared. In two illustrative examples with experimental data we apply selection criteria, fit models with constraints and assess goodness-of-fit. First, data from a concept identification task is analyzed. Hidden Markov models provide a flexible approach to analyzing such data when compared to other modeling methods. Second, a novel application of hidden Markov models in implicit learning is presented. Hidden Markov models are used in this context to quantify knowledge that subjects express in an implicit learning task. This method of analyzing implicit learning data provides a comprehensive approach for addressing important theoretical issues in the field.
Coding with partially hidden Markov models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.
1995-01-01
Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...
An Analysis and Implementation of the Hidden Markov Model to Technology Stock Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nguyet Nguyen
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Future stock prices depend on many internal and external factors that are not easy to evaluate. In this paper, we use the Hidden Markov Model, (HMM, to predict a daily stock price of three active trading stocks: Apple, Google, and Facebook, based on their historical data. We first use the Akaike information criterion (AIC and Bayesian information criterion (BIC to choose the numbers of states from HMM. We then use the models to predict close prices of these three stocks using both single observation data and multiple observation data. Finally, we use the predictions as signals for trading these stocks. The criteria tests’ results showed that HMM with two states worked the best among two, three and four states for the three stocks. Our results also demonstrate that the HMM outperformed the naïve method in forecasting stock prices. The results also showed that active traders using HMM got a higher return than using the naïve forecast for Facebook and Google stocks. The stock price prediction method has a significant impact on stock trading and derivative hedging.
Hidden Markov Models for Human Genes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Yves
1997-01-01
We analyse the sequential structure of human genomic DNA by hidden Markov models. We apply models of widely different design: conventional left-right constructs and models with a built-in periodic architecture. The models are trained on segments of DNA sequences extracted such that they cover com...
Hidden Markov models for labeled sequences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krogh, Anders Stærmose
1994-01-01
A hidden Markov model for labeled observations, called a class HMM, is introduced and a maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Instead of training it to model the statistics of the training sequences it is trained to optimize recognition. It resembles MMI...
Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model
Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu
2014-03-01
This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.
Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu
2014-01-01
This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different
Yau, C; Papaspiliopoulos, O; Roberts, G O; Holmes, C
2011-01-01
We consider the development of Bayesian Nonparametric methods for product partition models such as Hidden Markov Models and change point models. Our approach uses a Mixture of Dirichlet Process (MDP) model for the unknown sampling distribution (likelihood) for the observations arising in each state and a computationally efficient data augmentation scheme to aid inference. The method uses novel MCMC methodology which combines recent retrospective sampling methods with the use of slice sampler variables. The methodology is computationally efficient, both in terms of MCMC mixing properties, and robustness to the length of the time series being investigated. Moreover, the method is easy to implement requiring little or no user-interaction. We apply our methodology to the analysis of genomic copy number variation.
A Constraint Model for Constrained Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp
2009-01-01
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we extend HMMs with constraints and show how the familiar Viterbi algorithm can be generalized, based on constraint solving ...
Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition
Wrzoskowicz, Adam
1993-11-01
This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.
Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ADOWIE PERE
Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its ... the earth from the clouds. The usual ... Rainfall modelling and ... Markov Models have become popular tools ... environment sciences, University of Jos, plateau state,.
Exact solution of the hidden Markov processes
Saakian, David B.
2017-11-01
We write a master equation for the distributions related to hidden Markov processes (HMPs) and solve it using a functional equation. Thus the solution of HMPs is mapped exactly to the solution of the functional equation. For a general case the latter can be solved only numerically. We derive an exact expression for the entropy of HMPs. Our expression for the entropy is an alternative to the ones given before by the solution of integral equations. The exact solution is possible because actually the model can be considered as a generalized random walk on a one-dimensional strip. While we give the solution for the two second-order matrices, our solution can be easily generalized for the L values of the Markov process and M values of observables: We should be able to solve a system of L functional equations in the space of dimension M -1 .
Pruning Boltzmann networks and hidden Markov models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Morten With; Stork, D.
1996-01-01
We present sensitivity-based pruning algorithms for general Boltzmann networks. Central to our methods is the efficient calculation of a second-order approximation to the true weight saliencies in a cross-entropy error. Building upon previous work which shows a formal correspondence between linear...... Boltzmann chains and hidden Markov models (HMMs), we argue that our method can be applied to HMMs as well. We illustrate pruning on Boltzmann zippers, which are equivalent to two HMMs with cross-connection links. We verify that our second-order approximation preserves the rank ordering of weight saliencies...
Genetic Algorithms Principles Towards Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nabil M. Hewahi
2011-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper we propose a general approach based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs to evolve Hidden Markov Models (HMM. The problem appears when experts assign probability values for HMM, they use only some limited inputs. The assigned probability values might not be accurate to serve in other cases related to the same domain. We introduce an approach based on GAs to find
out the suitable probability values for the HMM to be mostly correct in more cases than what have been used to assign the probability values.
The Consensus String Problem and the Complexity of Comparing Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lyngsø, Rune Bang; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm
2002-01-01
The basic theory of hidden Markov models was developed and applied to problems in speech recognition in the late 1960s, and has since then been applied to numerous problems, e.g. biological sequence analysis. Most applications of hidden Markov models are based on efficient algorithms for computing...... the probability of generating a given string, or computing the most likely path generating a given string. In this paper we consider the problem of computing the most likely string, or consensus string, generated by a given model, and its implications on the complexity of comparing hidden Markov models. We show...... that computing the consensus string, and approximating its probability within any constant factor, is NP-hard, and that the same holds for the closely related labeling problem for class hidden Markov models. Furthermore, we establish the NP-hardness of comparing two hidden Markov models under the L∞- and L1...
Epitope discovery with phylogenetic hidden Markov models.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Lacerda, Miguel
2010-05-01
Existing methods for the prediction of immunologically active T-cell epitopes are based on the amino acid sequence or structure of pathogen proteins. Additional information regarding the locations of epitopes may be acquired by considering the evolution of viruses in hosts with different immune backgrounds. In particular, immune-dependent evolutionary patterns at sites within or near T-cell epitopes can be used to enhance epitope identification. We have developed a mutation-selection model of T-cell epitope evolution that allows the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype of the host to influence the evolutionary process. This is one of the first examples of the incorporation of environmental parameters into a phylogenetic model and has many other potential applications where the selection pressures exerted on an organism can be related directly to environmental factors. We combine this novel evolutionary model with a hidden Markov model to identify contiguous amino acid positions that appear to evolve under immune pressure in the presence of specific host immune alleles and that therefore represent potential epitopes. This phylogenetic hidden Markov model provides a rigorous probabilistic framework that can be combined with sequence or structural information to improve epitope prediction. As a demonstration, we apply the model to a data set of HIV-1 protein-coding sequences and host HLA genotypes.
Inference with constrained hidden Markov models in PRISM
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp
2010-01-01
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. De......_different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment.......A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference...
An introduction to hidden Markov models for biological sequences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krogh, Anders Stærmose
1998-01-01
A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding.......A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding....
Asymptotics for Estimating Equations in Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Jørgen Vinsløv; Jensen, Jens Ledet
Results on asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimate in hidden Markov models are extended in two directions. The stationarity assumption is relaxed, which allows for a covariate process influencing the hidden Markov process. Furthermore a class of estimating equations is considered...
Context Tree Estimation in Variable Length Hidden Markov Models
Dumont, Thierry
2011-01-01
We address the issue of context tree estimation in variable length hidden Markov models. We propose an estimator of the context tree of the hidden Markov process which needs no prior upper bound on the depth of the context tree. We prove that the estimator is strongly consistent. This uses information-theoretic mixture inequalities in the spirit of Finesso and Lorenzo(Consistent estimation of the order for Markov and hidden Markov chains(1990)) and E.Gassiat and S.Boucheron (Optimal error exp...
Bayesian networks precipitation model based on hidden Markov analysis and its application
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2010-01-01
Surface precipitation estimation is very important in hydrologic forecast. To account for the influence of the neighbors on the precipitation of an arbitrary grid in the network, Bayesian networks and Markov random field were adopted to estimate surface precipitation. Spherical coordinates and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm were used for region interpolation, and for estimation of the precipitation of arbitrary point in the region. Surface precipitation estimation of seven precipitation stations in Qinghai Lake region was performed. By comparing with other surface precipitation methods such as Thiessen polygon method, distance weighted mean method and arithmetic mean method, it is shown that the proposed method can judge the relationship of precipitation among different points in the area under complicated circumstances and the simulation results are more accurate and rational.
HMMEditor: a visual editing tool for profile hidden Markov model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng Jianlin
2008-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a powerful statistical model to represent a family of DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. Profile HMM has been widely used in bioinformatics research such as sequence alignment, gene structure prediction, motif identification, protein structure prediction, and biological database search. However, few comprehensive, visual editing tools for profile HMM are publicly available. Results We develop a visual editor for profile Hidden Markov Models (HMMEditor. HMMEditor can visualize the profile HMM architecture, transition probabilities, and emission probabilities. Moreover, it provides functions to edit and save HMM and parameters. Furthermore, HMMEditor allows users to align a sequence against the profile HMM and to visualize the corresponding Viterbi path. Conclusion HMMEditor provides a set of unique functions to visualize and edit a profile HMM. It is a useful tool for biological sequence analysis and modeling. Both HMMEditor software and web service are freely available.
Neuroevolution Mechanism for Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nabil M. Hewahi
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a statistical model based on probabilities. HMM is becoming one of the major models involved in many applications such as natural language
processing, handwritten recognition, image processing, prediction systems and many more. In this research we are concerned with finding out the best HMM for a certain application domain. We propose a neuroevolution process that is based first on converting the HMM to a neural network, then generating many neural networks at random where each represents a HMM. We proceed by
applying genetic operators to obtain new set of neural networks where each represents HMMs, and updating the population. Finally select the best neural network based on a fitness function.
Improved hidden Markov model for nosocomial infections.
Khader, Karim; Leecaster, Molly; Greene, Tom; Samore, Matthew; Thomas, Alun
2014-12-01
We propose a novel hidden Markov model (HMM) for parameter estimation in hospital transmission models, and show that commonly made simplifying assumptions can lead to severe model misspecification and poor parameter estimates. A standard HMM that embodies two commonly made simplifying assumptions, namely a fixed patient count and binomially distributed detections is compared with a new alternative HMM that does not require these simplifying assumptions. Using simulated data, we demonstrate how each of the simplifying assumptions used by the standard model leads to model misspecification, whereas the alternative model results in accurate parameter estimates. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.
Chuk, Tim; Crookes, Kate; Hayward, William G; Chan, Antoni B; Hsiao, Janet H
2017-12-01
It remains controversial whether culture modulates eye movement behavior in face recognition. Inconsistent results have been reported regarding whether cultural differences in eye movement patterns exist, whether these differences affect recognition performance, and whether participants use similar eye movement patterns when viewing faces from different ethnicities. These inconsistencies may be due to substantial individual differences in eye movement patterns within a cultural group. Here we addressed this issue by conducting individual-level eye movement data analysis using hidden Markov models (HMMs). Each individual's eye movements were modeled with an HMM. We clustered the individual HMMs according to their similarities and discovered three common patterns in both Asian and Caucasian participants: holistic (looking mostly at the face center), left-eye-biased analytic (looking mostly at the two individual eyes in addition to the face center with a slight bias to the left eye), and right-eye-based analytic (looking mostly at the right eye in addition to the face center). The frequency of participants adopting the three patterns did not differ significantly between Asians and Caucasians, suggesting little modulation from culture. Significantly more participants (75%) showed similar eye movement patterns when viewing own- and other-race faces than different patterns. Most importantly, participants with left-eye-biased analytic patterns performed significantly better than those using either holistic or right-eye-biased analytic patterns. These results suggest that active retrieval of facial feature information through an analytic eye movement pattern may be optimal for face recognition regardless of culture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nguyet Nguyen
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The hidden Markov model (HMM is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI, industrial production index (INDPRO, stock market index (S&P 500 and market volatility (VIX. At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.
The Consensus String Problem and the Complexity of Comparing Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lyngsø, Rune Bang; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm
2002-01-01
The basic theory of hidden Markov models was developed and applied to problems in speech recognition in the late 1960s, and has since then been applied to numerous problems, e.g. biological sequence analysis. Most applications of hidden Markov models are based on efficient algorithms for computing......-norms. We discuss the applicability of the technique used for proving the hardness of comparing two hidden Markov models under the L1-norm to other measures of distance between probability distributions. In particular, we show that it cannot be used for proving NP-hardness of determining the Kullback...
Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model. (HMM) based ... the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum ..... data collection teams of Snow and Avalanche Study.
A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Ye
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.
Characterization of prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters using hidden Markov models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Anders Gorm; Baldi, P.; Chauvin, Y.
1996-01-01
In this paper we utilize hidden Markov models (HMMs) and information theory to analyze prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters. We perform this analysis with special emphasis on the fact that promoters are divided into a number of different classes, depending on which polymerase-associated factors...... that bind to them. We find that HMMs trained on such subclasses of Escherichia coli promoters (specifically, the so-called sigma 70 and sigma 54 classes) give an excellent classification of unknown promoters with respect to sigma-class. HMMs trained on eukaryotic sequences from human genes also model nicely...
Ciampi, Antonio; Dyachenko, Alina; Cole, Martin; McCusker, Jane
2011-12-01
The study of mental disorders in the elderly presents substantial challenges due to population heterogeneity, coexistence of different mental disorders, and diagnostic uncertainty. While reliable tools have been developed to collect relevant data, new approaches to study design and analysis are needed. We focus on a new analytic approach. Our framework is based on latent class analysis and hidden Markov chains. From repeated measurements of a multivariate disease index, we extract the notion of underlying state of a patient at a time point. The course of the disorder is then a sequence of transitions among states. States and transitions are not observable; however, the probability of being in a state at a time point, and the transition probabilities from one state to another over time can be estimated. Data from 444 patients with and without diagnosis of delirium and dementia were available from a previous study. The Delirium Index was measured at diagnosis, and at 2 and 6 months from diagnosis. Four latent classes were identified: fairly healthy, moderately ill, clearly sick, and very sick. Dementia and delirium could not be separated on the basis of these data alone. Indeed, as the probability of delirium increased, so did the probability of decline of mental functions. Eight most probable courses were identified, including good and poor stable courses, and courses exhibiting various patterns of improvement. Latent class analysis and hidden Markov chains offer a promising tool for studying mental disorders in the elderly. Its use may show its full potential as new data become available.
Sebastian, Tunny; Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Anandan, Shalini; George, Sebastian; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I
2018-01-01
Hidden Markov models are stochastic models in which the observations are assumed to follow a mixture distribution, but the parameters of the components are governed by a Markov chain which is unobservable. The issues related to the estimation of Poisson-hidden Markov models in which the observations are coming from mixture of Poisson distributions and the parameters of the component Poisson distributions are governed by an m-state Markov chain with an unknown transition probability matrix are explained here. These methods were applied to the data on Vibrio cholerae counts reported every month for 11-year span at Christian Medical College, Vellore, India. Using Viterbi algorithm, the best estimate of the state sequence was obtained and hence the transition probability matrix. The mean passage time between the states were estimated. The 95% confidence interval for the mean passage time was estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. The three hidden states of the estimated Markov chain are labelled as 'Low', 'Moderate' and 'High' with the mean counts of 1.4, 6.6 and 20.2 and the estimated average duration of stay of 3, 3 and 4 months, respectively. Environmental risk factors were studied using Markov ordinal logistic regression analysis. No significant association was found between disease severity levels and climate components.
Application of Hidden Markov Models in Biomolecular Simulations.
Shukla, Saurabh; Shamsi, Zahra; Moffett, Alexander S; Selvam, Balaji; Shukla, Diwakar
2017-01-01
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide a framework to analyze large trajectories of biomolecular simulation datasets. HMMs decompose the conformational space of a biological molecule into finite number of states that interconvert among each other with certain rates. HMMs simplify long timescale trajectories for human comprehension, and allow comparison of simulations with experimental data. In this chapter, we provide an overview of building HMMs for analyzing bimolecular simulation datasets. We demonstrate the procedure for building a Hidden Markov model for Met-enkephalin peptide simulation dataset and compare the timescales of the process.
Detecting Faults By Use Of Hidden Markov Models
Smyth, Padhraic J.
1995-01-01
Frequency of false alarms reduced. Faults in complicated dynamic system (e.g., antenna-aiming system, telecommunication network, or human heart) detected automatically by method of automated, continuous monitoring. Obtains time-series data by sampling multiple sensor outputs at discrete intervals of t and processes data via algorithm determining whether system in normal or faulty state. Algorithm implements, among other things, hidden first-order temporal Markov model of states of system. Mathematical model of dynamics of system not needed. Present method is "prior" method mentioned in "Improved Hidden-Markov-Model Method of Detecting Faults" (NPO-18982).
Geolocating fish using Hidden Markov Models and Data Storage Tags
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Madsen, Henrik
2009-01-01
Geolocation of fish based on data from archival tags typically requires a statistical analysis to reduce the effect of measurement errors. In this paper we present a novel technique for this analysis, one based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM's). We assume that the actual path of the fish is generated...... by a biased random walk. The HMM methodology produces, for each time step, the probability that the fish resides in each grid cell. Because there is no Monte Carlo step in our technique, we are able to estimate parameters within the likelihood framework. The method does not require the distribution...... of inference in state-space models of animals. The technique can be applied to geolocation based on light, on tidal patterns, or measurement of other variables that vary with space. We illustrate the method through application to a simulated data set where geolocation relies on depth data exclusively....
A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.
Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G
1996-11-01
Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing.
Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 1. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya. J C Joshi Tankeshwar Kumar Sunita Srivastava Divya Sachdeva. Volume 126 Issue 1 February 2017 ...
Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...
Book Review: "Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction using R. by Walter Zucchini and Iain L. MacDonald. Chapman & Hall (CRC Press), 2009. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v10i1.61717 · AJOL African Journals Online.
KMEANS CLUSTERING FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL
Perrone, M.P.; Connell, S.D.
2004-01-01
An unsupervised kmeans clustering algorithm for hidden Markov models is described and applied to the task of generating subclass models for individual handwritten character classes. The algorithm is compared to a related clustering method and shown to give a relative change in the error rate of as
Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, Hidden Markov Model is applied to model human movements as to facilitate an automatic detection of the same. A number of activities were simulated with the help of two persons. The four movements considered are walking, sitting down-getting up, fall while walking and fall while standing. The data is ...
Hidden Markov processes theory and applications to biology
Vidyasagar, M
2014-01-01
This book explores important aspects of Markov and hidden Markov processes and the applications of these ideas to various problems in computational biology. The book starts from first principles, so that no previous knowledge of probability is necessary. However, the work is rigorous and mathematical, making it useful to engineers and mathematicians, even those not interested in biological applications. A range of exercises is provided, including drills to familiarize the reader with concepts and more advanced problems that require deep thinking about the theory. Biological applications are t
Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?
Joo, Rocio; Bertrand, Sophie; Tam, Jorge; Fablet, Ronan
2013-01-01
One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs). We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour), while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising) were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%), significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.
Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rocio Joo
Full Text Available One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs. We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs. They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour, while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%, significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.
Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. de; Souza e Silva, Edmundo A. de; Legey, Luiz F.L.
2010-01-01
The crude oil price is influenced by a great number of factors, most of which interact in very complex ways. For this reason, forecasting it through a fundamentalist approach is a difficult task. An alternative is to use time series methodologies, with which the price's past behavior is conveniently analyzed, and used to predict future movements. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of a nonlinear time series model, known as hidden Markov model (HMM), to predict future crude oil price movements. Using an HMM, we develop a forecasting methodology that consists of, basically, three steps. First, we employ wavelet analysis to remove high frequency price movements, which can be assumed as noise. Then, the HMM is used to forecast the probability distribution of the price return accumulated over the next F days. Finally, from this distribution, we infer future price trends. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology might be a useful decision support tool for agents participating in the crude oil market. (author)
A hidden markov model derived structural alphabet for proteins.
Camproux, A C; Gautier, R; Tufféry, P
2004-06-04
Understanding and predicting protein structures depends on the complexity and the accuracy of the models used to represent them. We have set up a hidden Markov model that discretizes protein backbone conformation as series of overlapping fragments (states) of four residues length. This approach learns simultaneously the geometry of the states and their connections. We obtain, using a statistical criterion, an optimal systematic decomposition of the conformational variability of the protein peptidic chain in 27 states with strong connection logic. This result is stable over different protein sets. Our model fits well the previous knowledge related to protein architecture organisation and seems able to grab some subtle details of protein organisation, such as helix sub-level organisation schemes. Taking into account the dependence between the states results in a description of local protein structure of low complexity. On an average, the model makes use of only 8.3 states among 27 to describe each position of a protein structure. Although we use short fragments, the learning process on entire protein conformations captures the logic of the assembly on a larger scale. Using such a model, the structure of proteins can be reconstructed with an average accuracy close to 1.1A root-mean-square deviation and for a complexity of only 3. Finally, we also observe that sequence specificity increases with the number of states of the structural alphabet. Such models can constitute a very relevant approach to the analysis of protein architecture in particular for protein structure prediction.
APPLICATION OF HIDDEN MARKOV CHAINS IN QUALITY CONTROL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hanife DEMIRALP
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The ever growing technological innovations and sophistication in industrial processes require adequate checks on quality. Thus, there is an increasing demand for simple and efficient quality control methods. In this regard the control charts stand out in simplicity and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a method of controlling quality based on the theory of hidden Markov chains. Based on samples drawn at different times from the production process, the method obtains the state of the process probabilistically. The main advantage of the method is that it requires no assumption on the normality of the process output.
Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups
Raghavan, Vasanthan; Galstyan, Aram; Tartakovsky, Alexander G.
2012-01-01
The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of $d=2$ corresponds to the case where the dynamics are coarsely quantized as Active and Inactive, re...
Using hidden Markov models to align multiple sequences.
Mount, David W
2009-07-01
A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a probabilistic model of a multiple sequence alignment (msa) of proteins. In the model, each column of symbols in the alignment is represented by a frequency distribution of the symbols (called a "state"), and insertions and deletions are represented by other states. One moves through the model along a particular path from state to state in a Markov chain (i.e., random choice of next move), trying to match a given sequence. The next matching symbol is chosen from each state, recording its probability (frequency) and also the probability of going to that state from a previous one (the transition probability). State and transition probabilities are multiplied to obtain a probability of the given sequence. The hidden nature of the HMM is due to the lack of information about the value of a specific state, which is instead represented by a probability distribution over all possible values. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of HMMs in msa and presents algorithms for calculating an HMM and the conditions for producing the best HMM.
Hidden Markov latent variable models with multivariate longitudinal data.
Song, Xinyuan; Xia, Yemao; Zhu, Hongtu
2017-03-01
Cocaine addiction is chronic and persistent, and has become a major social and health problem in many countries. Existing studies have shown that cocaine addicts often undergo episodic periods of addiction to, moderate dependence on, or swearing off cocaine. Given its reversible feature, cocaine use can be formulated as a stochastic process that transits from one state to another, while the impacts of various factors, such as treatment received and individuals' psychological problems on cocaine use, may vary across states. This article develops a hidden Markov latent variable model to study multivariate longitudinal data concerning cocaine use from a California Civil Addict Program. The proposed model generalizes conventional latent variable models to allow bidirectional transition between cocaine-addiction states and conventional hidden Markov models to allow latent variables and their dynamic interrelationship. We develop a maximum-likelihood approach, along with a Monte Carlo expectation conditional maximization (MCECM) algorithm, to conduct parameter estimation. The asymptotic properties of the parameter estimates and statistics for testing the heterogeneity of model parameters are investigated. The finite sample performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by simulation studies. The application to cocaine use study provides insights into the prevention of cocaine use. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
PELACAKAN DAN PENGENALAN WAJAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE EMBEDDED HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arie Wirawan Margono
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Tracking and recognizing human face becomes one of the important research subjects nowadays, where it is applicable in security system like room access, surveillance, as well as searching for person identity in police database. Because of applying in security case, it is necessary to have robust system for certain conditions such as: background influence, non-frontal face pose of male or female in different age and race. The aim of this research is to develop software which combines human face tracking using CamShift algorithm and face recognition system using Embedded Hidden Markov Models. The software uses video camera (webcam for real-time input, video AVI for dynamic input, and image file for static input. The software uses Object Oriented Programming (OOP coding style with C++ programming language, Microsoft Visual C++ 6.0® compiler, and assisted by some libraries of Intel Image Processing Library (IPL and Intel Open Source Computer Vision (OpenCV. System testing shows that object tracking based on skin complexion using CamShift algorithm comes out well, for tracking of single or even two face objects at once. Human face recognition system using Embedded Hidden Markov Models method has reach accuracy percentage of 82.76%, using 341 human faces in database that consists of 31 individuals with 11 poses and 29 human face testers. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Pelacakan dan pengenalan wajah manusia merupakan salah satu bidang yang cukup berkembang dewasa ini, dimana aplikasi dapat diterapkan dalam bidang keamanan (security system seperti ijin akses masuk ruangan, pengawasan lokasi (surveillance, maupun pencarian identitas individu pada database kepolisian. Karena diterapkan dalam kasus keamanan, dibutuhkan sistem yang handal terhadap beberapa kondisi, seperti: pengaruh latar belakang, pose wajah non-frontal terhadap pria maupun wanita dalam perbedaan usia dan ras. Tujuan penelitiam ini adalah untuk membuat perangkat lunak yang menggabungkan
On the entropy of a hidden Markov process.
Jacquet, Philippe; Seroussi, Gadiel; Szpankowski, Wojciech
2008-05-01
We study the entropy rate of a hidden Markov process (HMP) defined by observing the output of a binary symmetric channel whose input is a first-order binary Markov process. Despite the simplicity of the models involved, the characterization of this entropy is a long standing open problem. By presenting the probability of a sequence under the model as a product of random matrices, one can see that the entropy rate sought is equal to a top Lyapunov exponent of the product. This offers an explanation for the elusiveness of explicit expressions for the HMP entropy rate, as Lyapunov exponents are notoriously difficult to compute. Consequently, we focus on asymptotic estimates, and apply the same product of random matrices to derive an explicit expression for a Taylor approximation of the entropy rate with respect to the parameter of the binary symmetric channel. The accuracy of the approximation is validated against empirical simulation results. We also extend our results to higher-order Markov processes and to Rényi entropies of any order.
Algorithms for a parallel implementation of Hidden Markov Models with a small state space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jesper; Sand, Andreas
2011-01-01
Two of the most important algorithms for Hidden Markov Models are the forward and the Viterbi algorithms. We show how formulating these using linear algebra naturally lends itself to parallelization. Although the obtained algorithms are slow for Hidden Markov Models with large state spaces...
Limits of performance for the model reduction problem of hidden Markov models
Kotsalis, Georgios
2015-12-15
We introduce system theoretic notions of a Hankel operator, and Hankel norm for hidden Markov models. We show how the related Hankel singular values provide lower bounds on the norm of the difference between a hidden Markov model of order n and any lower order approximant of order n̂ < n.
Limits of performance for the model reduction problem of hidden Markov models
Kotsalis, Georgios; Shamma, Jeff S.
2015-01-01
We introduce system theoretic notions of a Hankel operator, and Hankel norm for hidden Markov models. We show how the related Hankel singular values provide lower bounds on the norm of the difference between a hidden Markov model of order n and any lower order approximant of order n̂ < n.
Hidden Markov models applied to a subsequence of the Xylella fastidiosa genome
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silva Cibele Q. da
2003-01-01
Full Text Available Dependencies in DNA sequences are frequently modeled using Markov models. However, Markov chains cannot account for heterogeneity that may be present in different regions of the same DNA sequence. Hidden Markov models are more realistic than Markov models since they allow for the identification of heterogeneous regions of a DNA sequence. In this study we present an application of hidden Markov models to a subsequence of the Xylella fastidiosa DNA data. We found that a three-state model provides a good description for the data considered.
Modeling promoter grammars with evolving hidden Markov models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Won, Kyoung-Jae; Sandelin, Albin; Marstrand, Troels Torben
2008-01-01
MOTIVATION: Describing and modeling biological features of eukaryotic promoters remains an important and challenging problem within computational biology. The promoters of higher eukaryotes in particular display a wide variation in regulatory features, which are difficult to model. Often several...... factors are involved in the regulation of a set of co-regulated genes. If so, promoters can be modeled with connected regulatory features, where the network of connections is characteristic for a particular mode of regulation. RESULTS: With the goal of automatically deciphering such regulatory structures......, we present a method that iteratively evolves an ensemble of regulatory grammars using a hidden Markov Model (HMM) architecture composed of interconnected blocks representing transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) and background regions of promoter sequences. The ensemble approach reduces the risk...
Engineering of Algorithms for Hidden Markov models and Tree Distances
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sand, Andreas
Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary scientific field that combines biology with mathematics, statistics and computer science in an effort to develop computational methods for handling, analyzing and learning from biological data. In the recent decades, the amount of available biological data has...... speed up all the classical algorithms for analyses and training of hidden Markov models. And I show how two particularly important algorithms, the forward algorithm and the Viterbi algorithm, can be accelerated through a reformulation of the algorithms and a somewhat more complicated parallelization...... contribution to the theoretically fastest set of algorithms presently available to compute two closely related measures of tree distance, the triplet distance and the quartet distance. And I further demonstrate that they are also the fastest algorithms in almost all cases when tested in practice....
Motion Imitation and Recognition using Parametric Hidden Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herzog, Dennis; Ude, Ales; Krüger, Volker
2008-01-01
) are important. Only together they convey the whole meaning of an action. Similarly, to imitate a movement, the robot needs to select the proper action and parameterize it, e.g., by the relative position of the object that needs to be grasped. We propose to utilize parametric hidden Markov models (PHMMs), which...... extend the classical HMMs by introducing a joint parameterization of the observation densities, to simultaneously solve the problems of action recognition, parameterization of the observed actions, and action synthesis. The proposed approach was fully implemented on a humanoid robot HOAP-3. To evaluate...... the approach, we focused on reaching and pointing actions. Even though the movements are very similar in appearance, our approach is able to distinguish the two movement types and discover the parameterization, and is thus enabling both, action recognition and action synthesis. Through parameterization we...
Understanding eye movements in face recognition using hidden Markov models.
Chuk, Tim; Chan, Antoni B; Hsiao, Janet H
2014-09-16
We use a hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach to analyze eye movement data in face recognition. HMMs are statistical models that are specialized in handling time-series data. We conducted a face recognition task with Asian participants, and model each participant's eye movement pattern with an HMM, which summarized the participant's scan paths in face recognition with both regions of interest and the transition probabilities among them. By clustering these HMMs, we showed that participants' eye movements could be categorized into holistic or analytic patterns, demonstrating significant individual differences even within the same culture. Participants with the analytic pattern had longer response times, but did not differ significantly in recognition accuracy from those with the holistic pattern. We also found that correct and wrong recognitions were associated with distinctive eye movement patterns; the difference between the two patterns lies in the transitions rather than locations of the fixations alone. © 2014 ARVO.
Hidden Markov Model Application to Transfer The Trader Online Forex Brokers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Farida Suharleni
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model is elaboration of Markov chain, which is applicable to cases that can’t directly observe. In this research, Hidden Markov Model is used to know trader’s transition to broker forex online. In Hidden Markov Model, observed state is observable part and hidden state is hidden part. Hidden Markov Model allows modeling system that contains interrelated observed state and hidden state. As observed state in trader’s transition to broker forex online is category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4, category 5 by condition of every broker forex online, whereas as hidden state is broker forex online Marketiva, Masterforex, Instaforex, FBS and Others. First step on application of Hidden Markov Model in this research is making construction model by making a probability of transition matrix (A from every broker forex online. Next step is making a probability of observation matrix (B by making conditional probability of five categories, that is category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4, category 5 by condition of every broker forex online and also need to determine an initial state probability (π from every broker forex online. The last step is using Viterbi algorithm to find hidden state sequences that is broker forex online sequences which is the most possible based on model and observed state that is the five categories. Application of Hidden Markov Model is done by making program with Viterbi algorithm using Delphi 7.0 software with observed state based on simulation data. Example: By the number of observation T = 5 and observed state sequences O = (2,4,3,5,1 is found hidden state sequences which the most possible with observed state O as following : where X1 = FBS, X2 = Masterforex, X3 = Marketiva, X4 = Others, and X5 = Instaforex.
Optical character recognition of handwritten Arabic using hidden Markov models
Aulama, Mohannad M.; Natsheh, Asem M.; Abandah, Gheith A.; Olama, Mohammed M.
2011-04-01
The problem of optical character recognition (OCR) of handwritten Arabic has not received a satisfactory solution yet. In this paper, an Arabic OCR algorithm is developed based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) combined with the Viterbi algorithm, which results in an improved and more robust recognition of characters at the sub-word level. Integrating the HMMs represents another step of the overall OCR trends being currently researched in the literature. The proposed approach exploits the structure of characters in the Arabic language in addition to their extracted features to achieve improved recognition rates. Useful statistical information of the Arabic language is initially extracted and then used to estimate the probabilistic parameters of the mathematical HMM. A new custom implementation of the HMM is developed in this study, where the transition matrix is built based on the collected large corpus, and the emission matrix is built based on the results obtained via the extracted character features. The recognition process is triggered using the Viterbi algorithm which employs the most probable sequence of sub-words. The model was implemented to recognize the sub-word unit of Arabic text raising the recognition rate from being linked to the worst recognition rate for any character to the overall structure of the Arabic language. Numerical results show that there is a potentially large recognition improvement by using the proposed algorithms.
Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Predictive Maintenance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Cartella
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Realistic predictive maintenance approaches are essential for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of industrial machines. In this work, we propose Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs with (i no constraints on the state duration density function and (ii being applied to continuous or discrete observation. To deal with such a type of HSMM, we also propose modifications to the learning, inference, and prediction algorithms. Finally, automatic model selection has been made possible using the Akaike Information Criterion. This paper describes the theoretical formalization of the model as well as several experiments performed on simulated and real data with the aim of methodology validation. In all performed experiments, the model is able to correctly estimate the current state and to effectively predict the time to a predefined event with a low overall average absolute error. As a consequence, its applicability to real world settings can be beneficial, especially where in real time the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL of the machine is calculated.
A Bayesian Approach for Structural Learning with Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cen Li
2002-01-01
Full Text Available Hidden Markov Models(HMM have proved to be a successful modeling paradigm for dynamic and spatial processes in many domains, such as speech recognition, genomics, and general sequence alignment. Typically, in these applications, the model structures are predefined by domain experts. Therefore, the HMM learning problem focuses on the learning of the parameter values of the model to fit the given data sequences. However, when one considers other domains, such as, economics and physiology, model structure capturing the system dynamic behavior is not available. In order to successfully apply the HMM methodology in these domains, it is important that a mechanism is available for automatically deriving the model structure from the data. This paper presents a HMM learning procedure that simultaneously learns the model structure and the maximum likelihood parameter values of a HMM from data. The HMM model structures are derived based on the Bayesian model selection methodology. In addition, we introduce a new initialization procedure for HMM parameter value estimation based on the K-means clustering method. Experimental results with artificially generated data show the effectiveness of the approach.
Mobile Application Identification based on Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Xinyan
2018-01-01
Full Text Available With the increasing number of mobile applications, there has more challenging network management tasks to resolve. Users also face security issues of the mobile Internet application when enjoying the mobile network resources. Identifying applications that correspond to network traffic can help network operators effectively perform network management. The existing mobile application recognition technology presents new challenges in extensibility and applications with encryption protocols. For the existing mobile application recognition technology, there are two problems, they can not recognize the application which using the encryption protocol and their scalability is poor. In this paper, a mobile application identification method based on Hidden Markov Model(HMM is proposed to extract the defined statistical characteristics from different network flows generated when each application starting. According to the time information of different network flows to get the corresponding time series, and then for each application to be identified separately to establish the corresponding HMM model. Then, we use 10 common applications to test the method proposed in this paper. The test results show that the mobile application recognition method proposed in this paper has a high accuracy and good generalization ability.
Clustering Multivariate Time Series Using Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shima Ghassempour
2014-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper we describe an algorithm for clustering multivariate time series with variables taking both categorical and continuous values. Time series of this type are frequent in health care, where they represent the health trajectories of individuals. The problem is challenging because categorical variables make it difficult to define a meaningful distance between trajectories. We propose an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs, where we first map each trajectory into an HMM, then define a suitable distance between HMMs and finally proceed to cluster the HMMs with a method based on a distance matrix. We test our approach on a simulated, but realistic, data set of 1,255 trajectories of individuals of age 45 and over, on a synthetic validation set with known clustering structure, and on a smaller set of 268 trajectories extracted from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Survey. The proposed method can be implemented quite simply using standard packages in R and Matlab and may be a good candidate for solving the difficult problem of clustering multivariate time series with categorical variables using tools that do not require advanced statistic knowledge, and therefore are accessible to a wide range of researchers.
Modelling and evaluation of surgical performance using hidden Markov models.
Megali, Giuseppe; Sinigaglia, Stefano; Tonet, Oliver; Dario, Paolo
2006-10-01
Minimally invasive surgery has become very widespread in the last ten years. Since surgeons experience difficulties in learning and mastering minimally invasive techniques, the development of training methods is of great importance. While the introduction of virtual reality-based simulators has introduced a new paradigm in surgical training, skill evaluation methods are far from being objective. This paper proposes a method for defining a model of surgical expertise and an objective metric to evaluate performance in laparoscopic surgery. Our approach is based on the processing of kinematic data describing movements of surgical instruments. We use hidden Markov model theory to define an expert model that describes expert surgical gesture. The model is trained on kinematic data related to exercises performed on a surgical simulator by experienced surgeons. Subsequently, we use this expert model as a reference model in the definition of an objective metric to evaluate performance of surgeons with different abilities. Preliminary results show that, using different topologies for the expert model, the method can be efficiently used both for the discrimination between experienced and novice surgeons, and for the quantitative assessment of surgical ability.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miao, Qiang; Huang, Hong Zhong; Fan, Xianfeng
2007-01-01
Condition classification is an important step in machinery fault detection, which is a problem of pattern recognition. Currently, there are a lot of techniques in this area and the purpose of this paper is to investigate two popular recognition techniques, namely hidden Markov model and support vector machine. At the beginning, we briefly introduced the procedure of feature extraction and the theoretical background of this paper. The comparison experiment was conducted for gearbox fault detection and the analysis results from this work showed that support vector machine has better classification performance in this area
438 Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, Hidden Markov Model is applied to model human movements as to .... emit either discrete information or a continuous data derived from a Probability .... For each hidden state in the test set, the probability = ... by applying the Kullback-Leibler distance (Juang & Rabiner, 1985) which ..... One Size Does Not Fit.
Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.
Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua
2013-06-15
Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Zhao, Zhibiao
2011-06-01
We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.
Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik
2016-01-01
Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....
Detecting Seismic Events Using a Supervised Hidden Markov Model
Burks, L.; Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Young, C.
2017-12-01
We explore the use of supervised hidden Markov models (HMMs) to detect seismic events in streaming seismogram data. Current methods for seismic event detection include simple triggering algorithms, such as STA/LTA and the Z-statistic, which can lead to large numbers of false positives that must be investigated by an analyst. The hypothesis of this study is that more advanced detection methods, such as HMMs, may decreases false positives while maintaining accuracy similar to current methods. We train a binary HMM classifier using 2 weeks of 3-component waveform data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) that was carefully reviewed by an expert analyst to pick all seismic events. Using an ensemble of simple and discrete features, such as the triggering of STA/LTA, the HMM predicts the time at which transition occurs from noise to signal. Compared to the STA/LTA detection algorithm, the HMM detects more true events, but the false positive rate remains unacceptably high. Future work to potentially decrease the false positive rate may include using continuous features, a Gaussian HMM, and multi-class HMMs to distinguish between types of seismic waves (e.g., P-waves and S-waves). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.SAND No: SAND2017-8154 A
Accelerating Information Retrieval from Profile Hidden Markov Model Databases.
Tamimi, Ahmad; Ashhab, Yaqoub; Tamimi, Hashem
2016-01-01
Profile Hidden Markov Model (Profile-HMM) is an efficient statistical approach to represent protein families. Currently, several databases maintain valuable protein sequence information as profile-HMMs. There is an increasing interest to improve the efficiency of searching Profile-HMM databases to detect sequence-profile or profile-profile homology. However, most efforts to enhance searching efficiency have been focusing on improving the alignment algorithms. Although the performance of these algorithms is fairly acceptable, the growing size of these databases, as well as the increasing demand for using batch query searching approach, are strong motivations that call for further enhancement of information retrieval from profile-HMM databases. This work presents a heuristic method to accelerate the current profile-HMM homology searching approaches. The method works by cluster-based remodeling of the database to reduce the search space, rather than focusing on the alignment algorithms. Using different clustering techniques, 4284 TIGRFAMs profiles were clustered based on their similarities. A representative for each cluster was assigned. To enhance sensitivity, we proposed an extended step that allows overlapping among clusters. A validation benchmark of 6000 randomly selected protein sequences was used to query the clustered profiles. To evaluate the efficiency of our approach, speed and recall values were measured and compared with the sequential search approach. Using hierarchical, k-means, and connected component clustering techniques followed by the extended overlapping step, we obtained an average reduction in time of 41%, and an average recall of 96%. Our results demonstrate that representation of profile-HMMs using a clustering-based approach can significantly accelerate data retrieval from profile-HMM databases.
Accelerating Information Retrieval from Profile Hidden Markov Model Databases.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmad Tamimi
Full Text Available Profile Hidden Markov Model (Profile-HMM is an efficient statistical approach to represent protein families. Currently, several databases maintain valuable protein sequence information as profile-HMMs. There is an increasing interest to improve the efficiency of searching Profile-HMM databases to detect sequence-profile or profile-profile homology. However, most efforts to enhance searching efficiency have been focusing on improving the alignment algorithms. Although the performance of these algorithms is fairly acceptable, the growing size of these databases, as well as the increasing demand for using batch query searching approach, are strong motivations that call for further enhancement of information retrieval from profile-HMM databases. This work presents a heuristic method to accelerate the current profile-HMM homology searching approaches. The method works by cluster-based remodeling of the database to reduce the search space, rather than focusing on the alignment algorithms. Using different clustering techniques, 4284 TIGRFAMs profiles were clustered based on their similarities. A representative for each cluster was assigned. To enhance sensitivity, we proposed an extended step that allows overlapping among clusters. A validation benchmark of 6000 randomly selected protein sequences was used to query the clustered profiles. To evaluate the efficiency of our approach, speed and recall values were measured and compared with the sequential search approach. Using hierarchical, k-means, and connected component clustering techniques followed by the extended overlapping step, we obtained an average reduction in time of 41%, and an average recall of 96%. Our results demonstrate that representation of profile-HMMs using a clustering-based approach can significantly accelerate data retrieval from profile-HMM databases.
Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik
Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....
A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings.
Liu, Jie; Hu, Youmin; Wu, Bo; Wang, Yan; Xie, Fengyun
2017-05-18
The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD). Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features' information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.
A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Liu
2017-05-01
Full Text Available The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD. Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features’ information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.
biomvRhsmm: Genomic Segmentation with Hidden Semi-Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Du
2014-01-01
Full Text Available High-throughput technologies like tiling array and next-generation sequencing (NGS generate continuous homogeneous segments or signal peaks in the genome that represent transcripts and transcript variants (transcript mapping and quantification, regions of deletion and amplification (copy number variation, or regions characterized by particular common features like chromatin state or DNA methylation ratio (epigenetic modifications. However, the volume and output of data produced by these technologies present challenges in analysis. Here, a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM is implemented and tailored to handle multiple genomic profile, to better facilitate genome annotation by assisting in the detection of transcripts, regulatory regions, and copy number variation by holistic microarray or NGS. With support for various data distributions, instead of limiting itself to one specific application, the proposed hidden semi-Markov model is designed to allow modeling options to accommodate different types of genomic data and to serve as a general segmentation engine. By incorporating genomic positions into the sojourn distribution of HSMM, with optional prior learning using annotation or previous studies, the modeling output is more biologically sensible. The proposed model has been compared with several other state-of-the-art segmentation models through simulation benchmarking, which shows that our efficient implementation achieves comparable or better sensitivity and specificity in genomic segmentation.
Recursive smoothers for hidden discrete-time Markov chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lakhdar Aggoun
2005-01-01
Full Text Available We consider a discrete-time Markov chain observed through another Markov chain. The proposed model extends models discussed by Elliott et al. (1995. We propose improved recursive formulae to update smoothed estimates of processes related to the model. These recursive estimates are used to update the parameter of the model via the expectation maximization (EM algorithm.
Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aboofazeli, Mohammad; Moussavi, Zahra
2009-01-01
Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.
Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aboofazeli, Mohammad [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: umaboofa@cc.umanitoba.ca; Moussavi, Zahra [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: mousavi@ee.umanitoba.ca
2009-01-30
Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huilin Huang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We study strong limit theorems for hidden Markov chains fields indexed by an infinite tree with uniformly bounded degrees. We mainly establish the strong law of large numbers for hidden Markov chains fields indexed by an infinite tree with uniformly bounded degrees and give the strong limit law of the conditional sample entropy rate.
Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen
2015-04-01
Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Regentova, E.; Zhang, L.; Veni, G.; Zheng, J.
2007-01-01
A system is designed for detecting microcalcification clusters (MCC) in digital mammograms. The system is intended for computer-aided diagnostic prompting. Further discrimination of MCC as benign or malignant is assumed to be performed by radiologists. Processing of mammograms is based on the statistical modeling by means of wavelet domain hidden markov trees (WHMT). Segmentation is performed by the weighted likelihood evaluation followed by the classification based on spatial filters for a single microcalcification (MC) and a cluster of MC detection. The analysis is carried out on FROC curves for 40 mammograms from the mini-MIAS database and for 100 mammograms with 50 cancerous and 50 benign cases from DDSM database. The designed system is capable to detect 100% of true positive cases in these sets. The rate of false positives is 2.9 per case for mini-MIAS dataset; and 0.01 for the DDSM images. (orig.)
Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management Using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models
Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A.
2008-01-01
Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on
Automatic categorization of web pages and user clustering with mixtures of hidden Markov models
Ypma, A.; Heskes, T.M.; Zaiane, O.R.; Srivastav, J.
2003-01-01
We propose mixtures of hidden Markov models for modelling clickstreams of web surfers. Hence, the page categorization is learned from the data without the need for a (possibly cumbersome) manual categorization. We provide an EM algorithm for training a mixture of HMMs and show that additional static
Fast sampling from a Hidden Markov Model posterior for large data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bonnevie, Rasmus; Hansen, Lars Kai
2014-01-01
Hidden Markov Models are of interest in a broad set of applications including modern data driven systems involving very large data sets. However, approximate inference methods based on Bayesian averaging are precluded in such applications as each sampling step requires a full sweep over the data...
Asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models with application to ion channels
de Gunst, M.C.M.; Shcherbakova, O.V.
2008-01-01
In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models as the number of observations goes to infinity. The theorem that we prove is similar to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem on the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution for the case of independent
Hidden Semi Markov Models for Multiple Observation Sequences: The mhsmm Package for R
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
O'Connell, Jarad Michael; Højsgaard, Søren
2011-01-01
models only allow a geometrically distributed sojourn time in a given state, while hidden semi-Markov models extend this by allowing an arbitrary sojourn distribution. We demonstrate the software with simulation examples and an application involving the modelling of the ovarian cycle of dairy cows...
Efficient tests for equivalence of hidden Markov processes and quantum random walks
U. Faigle; A. Schönhuth (Alexander)
2011-01-01
htmlabstractWhile two hidden Markov process (HMP) resp.~quantum random walk (QRW) parametrizations can differ from one another, the stochastic processes arising from them can be equivalent. Here a polynomial-time algorithm is presented which can determine equivalence of two HMP parametrizations
Exact Sampling and Decoding in High-Order Hidden Markov Models
Carter, S.; Dymetman, M.; Bouchard, G.
2012-01-01
We present a method for exact optimization and sampling from high order Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), which are generally handled by approximation techniques. Motivated by adaptive rejection sampling and heuristic search, we propose a strategy based on sequentially refining a lower-order language
Hidden Markov event sequence models: toward unsupervised functional MRI brain mapping.
Faisan, Sylvain; Thoraval, Laurent; Armspach, Jean-Paul; Foucher, Jack R; Metz-Lutz, Marie-Noëlle; Heitz, Fabrice
2005-01-01
Most methods used in functional MRI (fMRI) brain mapping require restrictive assumptions about the shape and timing of the fMRI signal in activated voxels. Consequently, fMRI data may be partially and misleadingly characterized, leading to suboptimal or invalid inference. To limit these assumptions and to capture the broad range of possible activation patterns, a novel statistical fMRI brain mapping method is proposed. It relies on hidden semi-Markov event sequence models (HSMESMs), a special class of hidden Markov models (HMMs) dedicated to the modeling and analysis of event-based random processes. Activation detection is formulated in terms of time coupling between (1) the observed sequence of hemodynamic response onset (HRO) events detected in the voxel's fMRI signal and (2) the "hidden" sequence of task-induced neural activation onset (NAO) events underlying the HROs. Both event sequences are modeled within a single HSMESM. The resulting brain activation model is trained to automatically detect neural activity embedded in the input fMRI data set under analysis. The data sets considered in this article are threefold: synthetic epoch-related, real epoch-related (auditory lexical processing task), and real event-related (oddball detection task) fMRI data sets. Synthetic data: Activation detection results demonstrate the superiority of the HSMESM mapping method with respect to a standard implementation of the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) approach. They are also very close, sometimes equivalent, to those obtained with an "ideal" implementation of SPM in which the activation patterns synthesized are reused for analysis. The HSMESM method appears clearly insensitive to timing variations of the hemodynamic response and exhibits low sensitivity to fluctuations of its shape (unsustained activation during task). Real epoch-related data: HSMESM activation detection results compete with those obtained with SPM, without requiring any prior definition of the expected
Time series segmentation: a new approach based on Genetic Algorithm and Hidden Markov Model
Toreti, A.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.
2009-04-01
The subdivision of a time series into homogeneous segments has been performed using various methods applied to different disciplines. In climatology, for example, it is accompanied by the well-known homogenization problem and the detection of artificial change points. In this context, we present a new method (GAMM) based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA), applicable to series of independent observations (and easily adaptable to autoregressive processes). A left-to-right hidden Markov model, estimating the parameters and the best-state sequence, respectively, with the Baum-Welch and Viterbi algorithms, was applied. In order to avoid the well-known dependence of the Baum-Welch algorithm on the initial condition, a Genetic Algorithm was developed. This algorithm is characterized by mutation, elitism and a crossover procedure implemented with some restrictive rules. Moreover the function to be minimized was derived following the approach of Kehagias (2004), i.e. it is the so-called complete log-likelihood. The number of states was determined applying a two-fold cross-validation procedure (Celeux and Durand, 2008). Being aware that the last issue is complex, and it influences all the analysis, a Multi Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP; Mielke et al., 1981) was inserted. It tests the model with K+1 states (where K is the state number of the best model) if its likelihood is close to K-state model. Finally, an evaluation of the GAMM performances, applied as a break detection method in the field of climate time series homogenization, is shown. 1. G. Celeux and J.B. Durand, Comput Stat 2008. 2. A. Kehagias, Stoch Envir Res 2004. 3. P.W. Mielke, K.J. Berry, G.W. Brier, Monthly Wea Rev 1981.
Progression of liver cirrhosis to HCC: an application of hidden Markov model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Serio Gabriella
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Health service databases of administrative type can be a useful tool for the study of progression of a disease, but the data reported in such sources could be affected by misclassifications of some patients' real disease states at the time. Aim of this work was to estimate the transition probabilities through the different degenerative phases of liver cirrhosis using health service databases. Methods We employed a hidden Markov model to determine the transition probabilities between two states, and of misclassification. The covariates inserted in the model were sex, age, the presence of comorbidities correlated with alcohol abuse, the presence of diagnosis codes indicating hepatitis C virus infection, and the Charlson Index. The analysis was conducted in patients presumed to have suffered the onset of cirrhosis in 2000, observing the disease evolution and, if applicable, death up to the end of the year 2006. Results The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC in cirrhotic patients was 1.5% per year. The probability of developing HCC is higher in males (OR = 2.217 and patients over 65 (OR = 1.547; over 65-year-olds have a greater probability of death both while still suffering from cirrhosis (OR = 2.379 and if they have developed HCC (OR = 1.410. A more severe casemix affects the transition from HCC to death (OR = 1.714. The probability of misclassifying subjects with HCC as exclusively affected by liver cirrhosis is 14.08%. Conclusions The hidden Markov model allowing for misclassification is well suited to analyses of health service databases, since it is able to capture bias due to the fact that the quality and accuracy of the available information are not always optimal. The probability of evolution of a cirrhotic subject to HCC depends on sex and age class, while hepatitis C virus infection and comorbidities correlated with alcohol abuse do not seem to have an influence.
Segmentation of laser range radar images using hidden Markov field models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pucar, P.
1993-01-01
Segmentation of images in the context of model based stochastic techniques is connected with high, very often unpracticle computational complexity. The objective with this thesis is to take the models used in model based image processing, simplify and use them in suboptimal, but not computationally demanding algorithms. Algorithms that are essentially one-dimensional, and their extensions to two dimensions are given. The model used in this thesis is the well known hidden Markov model. Estimation of the number of hidden states from observed data is a problem that is addressed. The state order estimation problem is of general interest and is not specifically connected to image processing. An investigation of three state order estimation techniques for hidden Markov models is given. 76 refs
A Hidden Markov Model Representing the Spatial and Temporal Correlation of Multiple Wind Farms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fang, Jiakun; Su, Chi; Hu, Weihao
2015-01-01
To accommodate the increasing wind energy with stochastic nature becomes a major issue on power system reliability. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the spatiotemporal correlation of multiple wind farms. First, a hierarchical clustering method based on self-organizing maps is ado....... The proposed statistical modeling framework is compatible with the sequential power system reliability analysis. A case study on optimal sizing and location of fast-response regulation sources is presented.......To accommodate the increasing wind energy with stochastic nature becomes a major issue on power system reliability. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the spatiotemporal correlation of multiple wind farms. First, a hierarchical clustering method based on self-organizing maps...... is adopted to categorize the similar output patterns of several wind farms into joint states. Then the hidden Markov model (HMM) is then designed to describe the temporal correlations among these joint states. Unlike the conventional Markov chain model, the accumulated wind power is taken into consideration...
Hidden Markov model for improved ultrasound-based presence detection
Jaramillo Garcia, P.A.; Linnartz, J.P.M.G.
2015-01-01
Adaptive lighting systems typically use a presence detector to save energy by switching off lights in unoccupied rooms. However, it is highly annoying when lights are erroneously turned off while a user is present (false negative, FN). This paper focuses on the estimation of presence, using a Hidden
Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.
2010-07-01
Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders, we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick-by-tick inventory variation of market members of the Spanish Stock Exchange. Our methodology probabilistically detects trading sequences, which are characterized by a significant majority of buy or sell transactions. We interpret these patches of sequential buying or selling transactions as proxies of the traded hidden orders. We find that the time, volume and number of transaction size distributions of these patches are fat tailed. Long patches are characterized by a large fraction of market orders and a low participation rate, while short patches have a large fraction of limit orders and a high participation rate. We observe the existence of a buy-sell asymmetry in the number, average length, average fraction of market orders and average participation rate of the detected patches. The detected asymmetry is clearly dependent on the local market trend. We also compare the hidden Markov model patches with those obtained with the segmentation method used in Vaglica et al (2008 Phys. Rev. E 77 036110), and we conclude that the former ones can be interpreted as a partition of the latter ones.
Hidden Markov Model of atomic quantum jump dynamics in an optically probed cavity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gammelmark, S.; Molmer, K.; Alt, W.
2014-01-01
We analyze the quantum jumps of an atom interacting with a cavity field. The strong atom- field interaction makes the cavity transmission depend on the time dependent atomic state, and we present a Hidden Markov Model description of the atomic state dynamics which is conditioned in a Bayesian...... manner on the detected signal. We suggest that small variations in the observed signal may be due to spatial motion of the atom within the cavity, and we represent the atomic system by a number of hidden states to account for both the small variations and the internal state jump dynamics. In our theory...
Hidden Markov modelling of movement data from fish
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Martin Wæver
Movement data from marine animals tagged with electronic tags are becoming increasingly diverse and plentiful. This trend entails a need for statistical methods that are able to filter the observations to extract the ecologically relevant content. This dissertation focuses on the development...... the behaviour of the animal. With the extended model can migratory and resident movement behaviour be related to geographical regions. For population inference multiple individual state-space analyses can be interconnected using mixed effects modelling. This framework provides parameter estimates...... approximated. This furthermore enables accurate probability densities of location to be computed. Finally, the performance of the HMM approach in analysing nonlinear state space models is compared with two alternatives: the AD Model Builder framework and BUGS, which relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo...
Learning to Automatically Detect Features for Mobile Robots Using Second-Order Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Olivier Aycard
2004-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a new method based on Hidden Markov Models to interpret temporal sequences of sensor data from mobile robots to automatically detect features. Hidden Markov Models have been used for a long time in pattern recognition, especially in speech recognition. Their main advantages over other methods (such as neural networks are their ability to model noisy temporal signals of variable length. We show in this paper that this approach is well suited for interpretation of temporal sequences of mobile-robot sensor data. We present two distinct experiments and results: the first one in an indoor environment where a mobile robot learns to detect features like open doors or T-intersections, the second one in an outdoor environment where a different mobile robot has to identify situations like climbing a hill or crossing a rock.
Hidden Markov models for zero-inflated Poisson counts with an application to substance use.
DeSantis, Stacia M; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar
2011-06-30
Paradigms for substance abuse cue-reactivity research involve pharmacological or stressful stimulation designed to elicit stress and craving responses in cocaine-dependent subjects. It is unclear as to whether stress induced from participation in such studies increases drug-seeking behavior. We propose a 2-state Hidden Markov model to model the number of cocaine abuses per week before and after participation in a stress-and cue-reactivity study. The hypothesized latent state corresponds to 'high' or 'low' use. To account for a preponderance of zeros, we assume a zero-inflated Poisson model for the count data. Transition probabilities depend on the prior week's state, fixed demographic variables, and time-varying covariates. We adopt a Bayesian approach to model fitting, and use the conditional predictive ordinate statistic to demonstrate that the zero-inflated Poisson hidden Markov model outperforms other models for longitudinal count data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The Use of Hidden Markov Models for Anomaly Detection in Nuclear Core Condition Monitoring
Stephen, Bruce; West, Graeme M.; Galloway, Stuart; McArthur, Stephen D. J.; McDonald, James R.; Towle, Dave
2009-04-01
Unplanned outages can be especially costly for generation companies operating nuclear facilities. Early detection of deviations from expected performance through condition monitoring can allow a more proactive and managed approach to dealing with ageing plant. This paper proposes an anomaly detection framework incorporating the use of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to support the analysis of nuclear reactor core condition monitoring data. Fuel Grab Load Trace (FGLT) data gathered within the UK during routine refueling operations has been seen to provide information relating to the condition of the graphite bricks that comprise the core. Although manual analysis of this data is time consuming and requires considerable expertise, this paper demonstrates how techniques such as the HMM can provide analysis support by providing a benchmark model of expected behavior against which future refueling events may be compared. The presence of anomalous behavior in candidate traces is inferred through the underlying statistical foundation of the HMM which gives an observation likelihood averaged along the length of the input sequence. Using this likelihood measure, the engineer can be alerted to anomalous behaviour, indicating data which might require further detailed examination. It is proposed that this data analysis technique is used in conjunction with other intelligent analysis techniques currently employed to analyse FGLT to provide a greater confidence measure in detecting anomalous behaviour from FGLT data.
Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA).
Frost, H Robert; McCray, Alexa T
2012-02-03
Biomedical ontologies have become an increasingly critical lens through which researchers analyze the genomic, clinical and bibliographic data that fuels scientific research. Of particular relevance are methods, such as enrichment analysis, that quantify the importance of ontology classes relative to a collection of domain data. Current analytical techniques, however, remain limited in their ability to handle many important types of structural complexity encountered in real biological systems including class overlaps, continuously valued data, inter-instance relationships, non-hierarchical relationships between classes, semantic distance and sparse data. In this paper, we describe a methodology called Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA) and illustrate its use through a MCOA-based enrichment analysis application based on a generative model of gene activation. MCOA models the classes in an ontology, the instances from an associated dataset and all directional inter-class, class-to-instance and inter-instance relationships as a single finite ergodic Markov chain. The adjusted transition probability matrix for this Markov chain enables the calculation of eigenvector values that quantify the importance of each ontology class relative to other classes and the associated data set members. On both controlled Gene Ontology (GO) data sets created with Escherichia coli, Drosophila melanogaster and Homo sapiens annotations and real gene expression data extracted from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), the MCOA enrichment analysis approach provides the best performance of comparable state-of-the-art methods. A methodology based on Markov chain models and network analytic metrics can help detect the relevant signal within large, highly interdependent and noisy data sets and, for applications such as enrichment analysis, has been shown to generate superior performance on both real and simulated data relative to existing state-of-the-art approaches.
Modeling of IP scanning activities with Hidden Markov Models: Darknet case study
De Santis , Giulia; Lahmadi , Abdelkader; Francois , Jerome; Festor , Olivier
2016-01-01
International audience; We propose a methodology based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model scanning activities monitored by a darknet. The HMMs of scanning activities are built on the basis of the number of scanned IP addresses within a time window and fitted using mixtures of Poisson distributions. Our methodology is applied on real data traces collected from a darknet and generated by two large scale scanners, ZMap and Shodan. We demonstrated that the built models are able to characteri...
Utilizing Gaze Behavior for Inferring Task Transitions Using Abstract Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Fernando Tello Gamarra
2016-12-01
Full Text Available We demonstrate an improved method for utilizing observed gaze behavior and show that it is useful in inferring hand movement intent during goal directed tasks. The task dynamics and the relationship between hand and gaze behavior are learned using an Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM. We show that the predicted hand movement transitions occur consistently earlier in AHMM models with gaze than those models that do not include gaze observations.
Belief Bisimulation for Hidden Markov Models Logical Characterisation and Decision Algorithm
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jansen, David N.; Nielson, Flemming; Zhang, Lijun
2012-01-01
This paper establishes connections between logical equivalences and bisimulation relations for hidden Markov models (HMM). Both standard and belief state bisimulations are considered. We also present decision algorithms for the bisimilarities. For standard bisimilarity, an extension of the usual...... partition refinement algorithm is enough. Belief bisimilarity, being a relation on the continuous space of belief states, cannot be described directly. Instead, we show how to generate a linear equation system in time cubic in the number of states....
Caveats on Bayesian and hidden-Markov models (v2.8)
Schomaker, Lambert
2016-01-01
This paper describes a number of fundamental and practical problems in the application of hidden-Markov models and Bayes when applied to cursive-script recognition. Several problems, however, will have an effect in other application areas. The most fundamental problem is the propagation of error in the product of probabilities. This is a common and pervasive problem which deserves more attention. On the basis of Monte Carlo modeling, tables for the expected relative error are given. It seems ...
A Multilayer Hidden Markov Models-Based Method for Human-Robot Interaction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chongben Tao
2013-01-01
Full Text Available To achieve Human-Robot Interaction (HRI by using gestures, a continuous gesture recognition approach based on Multilayer Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs is proposed, which consists of two parts. One part is gesture spotting and segment module, the other part is continuous gesture recognition module. Firstly, a Kinect sensor is used to capture 3D acceleration and 3D angular velocity data of hand gestures. And then, a Feed-forward Neural Networks (FNNs and a threshold criterion are used for gesture spotting and segment, respectively. Afterwards, the segmented gesture signals are respectively preprocessed and vector symbolized by a sliding window and a K-means clustering method. Finally, symbolized data are sent into Lower Hidden Markov Models (LHMMs to identify individual gestures, and then, a Bayesian filter with sequential constraints among gestures in Upper Hidden Markov Models (UHMMs is used to correct recognition errors created in LHMMs. Five predefined gestures are used to interact with a Kinect mobile robot in experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method not only has good effectiveness and accuracy, but also has favorable real-time performance.
Basic problems solving for two-dimensional discrete 3 × 4 order hidden markov model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Guo-gang; Gan, Zong-liang; Tang, Gui-jin; Cui, Zi-guan; Zhu, Xiu-chang
2016-01-01
A novel model is proposed to overcome the shortages of the classical hypothesis of the two-dimensional discrete hidden Markov model. In the proposed model, the state transition probability depends on not only immediate horizontal and vertical states but also on immediate diagonal state, and the observation symbol probability depends on not only current state but also on immediate horizontal, vertical and diagonal states. This paper defines the structure of the model, and studies the three basic problems of the model, including probability calculation, path backtracking and parameters estimation. By exploiting the idea that the sequences of states on rows or columns of the model can be seen as states of a one-dimensional discrete 1 × 2 order hidden Markov model, several algorithms solving the three questions are theoretically derived. Simulation results further demonstrate the performance of the algorithms. Compared with the two-dimensional discrete hidden Markov model, there are more statistical characteristics in the structure of the proposed model, therefore the proposed model theoretically can more accurately describe some practical problems.
Hidden Markov models and other machine learning approaches in computational molecular biology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baldi, P. [California Inst. of Tech., Pasadena, CA (United States)
1995-12-31
This tutorial was one of eight tutorials selected to be presented at the Third International Conference on Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology which was held in the United Kingdom from July 16 to 19, 1995. Computational tools are increasingly needed to process the massive amounts of data, to organize and classify sequences, to detect weak similarities, to separate coding from non-coding regions, and reconstruct the underlying evolutionary history. The fundamental problem in machine learning is the same as in scientific reasoning in general, as well as statistical modeling: to come up with a good model for the data. In this tutorial four classes of models are reviewed. They are: Hidden Markov models; artificial Neural Networks; Belief Networks; and Stochastic Grammars. When dealing with DNA and protein primary sequences, Hidden Markov models are one of the most flexible and powerful alignments and data base searches. In this tutorial, attention is focused on the theory of Hidden Markov Models, and how to apply them to problems in molecular biology.
An Approach of Diagnosis Based On The Hidden Markov Chains Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karim Bouamrane
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Diagnosis is a key element in industrial system maintenance process performance. A diagnosis tool is proposed allowing the maintenance operators capitalizing on the knowledge of their trade and subdividing it for better performance improvement and intervention effectiveness within the maintenance process service. The Tool is based on the Markov Chain Model and more precisely the Hidden Markov Chains (HMC which has the system failures determination advantage, taking into account the causal relations, stochastic context modeling of their dynamics and providing a relevant diagnosis help by their ability of dubious information use. Since the FMEA method is a well adapted artificial intelligence field, the modeling with Markov Chains is carried out with its assistance. Recently, a dynamic programming recursive algorithm, called 'Viterbi Algorithm', is being used in the Hidden Markov Chains field. This algorithm provides as input to the HMC a set of system observed effects and generates at exit the various causes having caused the loss from one or several system functions.
Use of profile hidden Markov models in viral discovery: current insights
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reyes A
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Alejandro Reyes,1–3 João Marcelo P Alves,4 Alan Mitchell Durham,5 Arthur Gruber4 1Department of Biological Sciences, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia; 2Department of Pathology and Immunology, Center for Genome Sciences and Systems Biology, Washington University in Saint Louis, St Louis, MO, USA; 3Max Planck Tandem Group in Computational Biology, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia; 4Department of Parasitology, Institute of Biomedical Sciences, 5Department of Computer Science, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil Abstract: Sequence similarity searches are the bioinformatic cornerstone of molecular sequence analysis for all domains of life. However, large amounts of divergence between organisms, such as those seen among viruses, can significantly hamper analyses. Profile hidden Markov models (profile HMMs are among the most successful approaches for dealing with this problem, which represent an invaluable tool for viral identification efforts. Profile HMMs are statistical models that convert information from a multiple sequence alignment into a set of probability values that reflect position-specific variation levels in all members of evolutionarily related sequences. Since profile HMMs represent a wide spectrum of variation, these models show higher sensitivity than conventional similarity methods such as BLAST for the detection of remote homologs. In recent years, there has been an effort to compile viral sequences from different viral taxonomic groups into integrated databases, such as Prokaryotic Virus Orthlogous Groups (pVOGs and database of profile HMMs (vFam database, which provide functional annotation, multiple sequence alignments, and profile HMMs. Since these databases rely on viral sequences collected from GenBank and RefSeq, they suffer in variable extent from uneven taxonomic sampling, with low sequence representation of many viral groups, which affects the
Fuzzy hidden Markov chains segmentation for volume determination and quantitation in PET
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hatt, M [INSERM U650, Laboratoire du Traitement de l' Information Medicale (LaTIM), CHU Morvan, Bat 2bis (I3S), 5 avenue Foch, Brest, 29609 (France); Lamare, F [INSERM U650, Laboratoire du Traitement de l' Information Medicale (LaTIM), CHU Morvan, Bat 2bis (I3S), 5 avenue Foch, Brest, 29609, (France); Boussion, N [INSERM U650, Laboratoire du Traitement de l' Information Medicale (LaTIM), CHU Morvan, Bat 2bis (I3S), 5 avenue Foch, Brest, 29609 (France); Turzo, A [INSERM U650, Laboratoire du Traitement de l' Information Medicale (LaTIM), CHU Morvan, Bat 2bis (I3S), 5 avenue Foch, Brest, 29609 (France); Collet, C [Ecole Nationale Superieure de Physique de Strasbourg (ENSPS), ULP, Strasbourg, F-67000 (France); Salzenstein, F [Institut d' Electronique du Solide et des Systemes (InESS), ULP, Strasbourg, F-67000 (France); Roux, C [INSERM U650, Laboratoire du Traitement de l' Information Medicale (LaTIM), CHU Morvan, Bat 2bis (I3S), 5 avenue Foch, Brest, 29609 (France); Jarritt, P [Medical Physics Agency, Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast (United Kingdom); Carson, K [Medical Physics Agency, Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast (United Kingdom); Rest, C Cheze-Le [INSERM U650, Laboratoire du Traitement de l' Information Medicale (LaTIM), CHU Morvan, Bat 2bis (I3S), 5 avenue Foch, Brest, 29609 (France); Visvikis, D [INSERM U650, Laboratoire du Traitement de l' Information Medicale (LaTIM), CHU Morvan, Bat 2bis (I3S), 5 avenue Foch, Brest, 29609 (France)
2007-07-21
Accurate volume of interest (VOI) estimation in PET is crucial in different oncology applications such as response to therapy evaluation and radiotherapy treatment planning. The objective of our study was to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm for automatic lesion volume delineation; namely the fuzzy hidden Markov chains (FHMC), with that of current state of the art in clinical practice threshold based techniques. As the classical hidden Markov chain (HMC) algorithm, FHMC takes into account noise, voxel intensity and spatial correlation, in order to classify a voxel as background or functional VOI. However the novelty of the fuzzy model consists of the inclusion of an estimation of imprecision, which should subsequently lead to a better modelling of the 'fuzzy' nature of the object of interest boundaries in emission tomography data. The performance of the algorithms has been assessed on both simulated and acquired datasets of the IEC phantom, covering a large range of spherical lesion sizes (from 10 to 37 mm), contrast ratios (4:1 and 8:1) and image noise levels. Both lesion activity recovery and VOI determination tasks were assessed in reconstructed images using two different voxel sizes (8 mm{sup 3} and 64 mm{sup 3}). In order to account for both the functional volume location and its size, the concept of % classification errors was introduced in the evaluation of volume segmentation using the simulated datasets. Results reveal that FHMC performs substantially better than the threshold based methodology for functional volume determination or activity concentration recovery considering a contrast ratio of 4:1 and lesion sizes of <28 mm. Furthermore differences between classification and volume estimation errors evaluated were smaller for the segmented volumes provided by the FHMC algorithm. Finally, the performance of the automatic algorithms was less susceptible to image noise levels in comparison to the threshold based techniques. The
Segmentation of heart sound recordings by a duration-dependent hidden Markov model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmidt, S E; Graff, C; Toft, E; Struijk, J J; Holst-Hansen, C
2010-01-01
Digital stethoscopes offer new opportunities for computerized analysis of heart sounds. Segmentation of heart sound recordings into periods related to the first and second heart sound (S1 and S2) is fundamental in the analysis process. However, segmentation of heart sounds recorded with handheld stethoscopes in clinical environments is often complicated by background noise. A duration-dependent hidden Markov model (DHMM) is proposed for robust segmentation of heart sounds. The DHMM identifies the most likely sequence of physiological heart sounds, based on duration of the events, the amplitude of the signal envelope and a predefined model structure. The DHMM model was developed and tested with heart sounds recorded bedside with a commercially available handheld stethoscope from a population of patients referred for coronary arterioangiography. The DHMM identified 890 S1 and S2 sounds out of 901 which corresponds to 98.8% (CI: 97.8–99.3%) sensitivity in 73 test patients and 13 misplaced sounds out of 903 identified sounds which corresponds to 98.6% (CI: 97.6–99.1%) positive predictivity. These results indicate that the DHMM is an appropriate model of the heart cycle and suitable for segmentation of clinically recorded heart sounds
A hidden Markov model approach for determining expression from genomic tiling micro arrays
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krogh Anders
2006-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic tiling micro arrays have great potential for identifying previously undiscovered coding as well as non-coding transcription. To-date, however, analyses of these data have been performed in an ad hoc fashion. Results We present a probabilistic procedure, ExpressHMM, that adaptively models tiling data prior to predicting expression on genomic sequence. A hidden Markov model (HMM is used to model the distributions of tiling array probe scores in expressed and non-expressed regions. The HMM is trained on sets of probes mapped to regions of annotated expression and non-expression. Subsequently, prediction of transcribed fragments is made on tiled genomic sequence. The prediction is accompanied by an expression probability curve for visual inspection of the supporting evidence. We test ExpressHMM on data from the Cheng et al. (2005 tiling array experiments on ten Human chromosomes 1. Results can be downloaded and viewed from our web site 2. Conclusion The value of adaptive modelling of fluorescence scores prior to categorisation into expressed and non-expressed probes is demonstrated. Our results indicate that our adaptive approach is superior to the previous analysis in terms of nucleotide sensitivity and transfrag specificity.
NLStradamus: a simple Hidden Markov Model for nuclear localization signal prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Provart Nicholas
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Nuclear localization signals (NLSs are stretches of residues within a protein that are important for the regulated nuclear import of the protein. Of the many import pathways that exist in yeast, the best characterized is termed the 'classical' NLS pathway. The classical NLS contains specific patterns of basic residues and computational methods have been designed to predict the location of these motifs on proteins. The consensus sequences, or patterns, for the other import pathways are less well-understood. Results In this paper, we present an analysis of characterized NLSs in yeast, and find, despite the large number of nuclear import pathways, that NLSs seem to show similar patterns of amino acid residues. We test current prediction methods and observe a low true positive rate. We therefore suggest an approach using hidden Markov models (HMMs to predict novel NLSs in proteins. We show that our method is able to consistently find 37% of the NLSs with a low false positive rate and that our method retains its true positive rate outside of the yeast data set used for the training parameters. Conclusion Our implementation of this model, NLStradamus, is made available at: http://www.moseslab.csb.utoronto.ca/NLStradamus/
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bastien Boussau
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Homologous recombination is a pervasive biological process that affects sequences in all living organisms and viruses. In the presence of recombination, the evolutionary history of an alignment of homologous sequences cannot be properly depicted by a single bifurcating tree: some sites have evolved along a specific phylogenetic tree, others have followed another path. Methods available to analyse recombination in sequences usually involve an analysis of the alignment through sliding-windows, or are particularly demanding in computational resources, and are often limited to nucleotide sequences. In this article, we propose and implement a Mixture Model on trees and a phylogenetic Hidden Markov Model to reveal recombination breakpoints while searching for the various evolutionary histories that are present in an alignment known to have undergone homologous recombination. These models are sufficiently efficient to be applied to dozens of sequences on a single desktop computer, and can handle equivalently nucleotide or protein sequences. We estimate their accuracy on simulated sequences and test them on real data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bastien Boussau
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Homologous recombination is a pervasive biological process that affects sequences in all living organisms and viruses. In the presence of recombination, the evolutionary history of an alignment of homologous sequences cannot be properly depicted by a single bifurcating tree: some sites have evolved along a specific phylogenetic tree, others have followed another path. Methods available to analyse recombination in sequences usually involve an analysis of the alignment through sliding-windows, or are particularly demanding in computational resources, and are often limited to nucleotide sequences. In this article, we propose and implement a Mixture Model on trees and a phylogenetic Hidden Markov Model to reveal recombination breakpoints while searching for the various evolutionary histories that are present in an alignment known to have undergone homologous recombination. These models are sufficiently efficient to be applied to dozens of sequences on a single desktop computer, and can handle equivalently nucleotide or protein sequences. We estimate their accuracy on simulated sequences and test them on real data.
Adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly States for price manipulation detection.
Cao, Yi; Li, Yuhua; Coleman, Sonya; Belatreche, Ammar; McGinnity, Thomas Martin
2015-02-01
Price manipulation refers to the activities of those traders who use carefully designed trading behaviors to manually push up or down the underlying equity prices for making profits. With increasing volumes and frequency of trading, price manipulation can be extremely damaging to the proper functioning and integrity of capital markets. The existing literature focuses on either empirical studies of market abuse cases or analysis of particular manipulation types based on certain assumptions. Effective approaches for analyzing and detecting price manipulation in real time are yet to be developed. This paper proposes a novel approach, called adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly states (AHMMAS) for modeling and detecting price manipulation activities. Together with wavelet transformations and gradients as the feature extraction methods, the AHMMAS model caters to price manipulation detection and basic manipulation type recognition. The evaluation experiments conducted on seven stock tick data from NASDAQ and the London Stock Exchange and 10 simulated stock prices by stochastic differential equation show that the proposed AHMMAS model can effectively detect price manipulation patterns and outperforms the selected benchmark models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Md. Rabiul Islam
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to propose a feature fusion based Audio-Visual Speaker Identification (AVSI system with varied conditions of illumination environments. Among the different fusion strategies, feature level fusion has been used for the proposed AVSI system where Hidden Markov Model (HMM is used for learning and classification. Since the feature set contains richer information about the raw biometric data than any other levels, integration at feature level is expected to provide better authentication results. In this paper, both Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs and Linear Prediction Cepstral Coefficients (LPCCs are combined to get the audio feature vectors and Active Shape Model (ASM based appearance and shape facial features are concatenated to take the visual feature vectors. These combined audio and visual features are used for the feature-fusion. To reduce the dimension of the audio and visual feature vectors, Principal Component Analysis (PCA method is used. The VALID audio-visual database is used to measure the performance of the proposed system where four different illumination levels of lighting conditions are considered. Experimental results focus on the significance of the proposed audio-visual speaker identification system with various combinations of audio and visual features.
Rustamov, Samir; Mustafayev, Elshan; Clements, Mark A.
2018-04-01
The context analysis of customer requests in a natural language call routing problem is investigated in the paper. One of the most significant problems in natural language call routing is a comprehension of client request. With the aim of finding a solution to this issue, the Hybrid HMM and ANFIS models become a subject to an examination. Combining different types of models (ANFIS and HMM) can prevent misunderstanding by the system for identification of user intention in dialogue system. Based on these models, the hybrid system may be employed in various language and call routing domains due to nonusage of lexical or syntactic analysis in classification process.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rustamov Samir
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The context analysis of customer requests in a natural language call routing problem is investigated in the paper. One of the most significant problems in natural language call routing is a comprehension of client request. With the aim of finding a solution to this issue, the Hybrid HMM and ANFIS models become a subject to an examination. Combining different types of models (ANFIS and HMM can prevent misunderstanding by the system for identification of user intention in dialogue system. Based on these models, the hybrid system may be employed in various language and call routing domains due to nonusage of lexical or syntactic analysis in classification process.
Two-Stage Hidden Markov Model in Gesture Recognition for Human Robot Interaction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nhan Nguyen-Duc-Thanh
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is very rich in mathematical structure and hence can form the theoretical basis for use in a wide range of applications including gesture representation. Most research in this field, however, uses only HMM for recognizing simple gestures, while HMM can definitely be applied for whole gesture meaning recognition. This is very effectively applicable in Human-Robot Interaction (HRI. In this paper, we introduce an approach for HRI in which not only the human can naturally control the robot by hand gesture, but also the robot can recognize what kind of task it is executing. The main idea behind this method is the 2-stages Hidden Markov Model. The 1st HMM is to recognize the prime command-like gestures. Based on the sequence of prime gestures that are recognized from the 1st stage and which represent the whole action, the 2nd HMM plays a role in task recognition. Another contribution of this paper is that we use the output Mixed Gaussian distribution in HMM to improve the recognition rate. In the experiment, we also complete a comparison of the different number of hidden states and mixture components to obtain the optimal one, and compare to other methods to evaluate this performance.
Enhanced Map-Matching Algorithm with a Hidden Markov Model for Mobile Phone Positioning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
An Luo
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Numerous map-matching techniques have been developed to improve positioning, using Global Positioning System (GPS data and other sensors. However, most existing map-matching algorithms process GPS data with high sampling rates, to achieve a higher correct rate and strong universality. This paper introduces a novel map-matching algorithm based on a hidden Markov model (HMM for GPS positioning and mobile phone positioning with a low sampling rate. The HMM is a statistical model well known for providing solutions to temporal recognition applications such as text and speech recognition. In this work, the hidden Markov chain model was built to establish a map-matching process, using the geometric data, the topologies matrix of road links in road network and refined quad-tree data structure. HMM-based map-matching exploits the Viterbi algorithm to find the optimized road link sequence. The sequence consists of hidden states in the HMM model. The HMM-based map-matching algorithm is validated on a vehicle trajectory using GPS and mobile phone data. The results show a significant improvement in mobile phone positioning and high and low sampling of GPS data.
Detection of bursts in extracellular spike trains using hidden semi-Markov point process models.
Tokdar, Surya; Xi, Peiyi; Kelly, Ryan C; Kass, Robert E
2010-08-01
Neurons in vitro and in vivo have epochs of bursting or "up state" activity during which firing rates are dramatically elevated. Various methods of detecting bursts in extracellular spike trains have appeared in the literature, the most widely used apparently being Poisson Surprise (PS). A natural description of the phenomenon assumes (1) there are two hidden states, which we label "burst" and "non-burst," (2) the neuron evolves stochastically, switching at random between these two states, and (3) within each state the spike train follows a time-homogeneous point process. If in (2) the transitions from non-burst to burst and burst to non-burst states are memoryless, this becomes a hidden Markov model (HMM). For HMMs, the state transitions follow exponential distributions, and are highly irregular. Because observed bursting may in some cases be fairly regular-exhibiting inter-burst intervals with small variation-we relaxed this assumption. When more general probability distributions are used to describe the state transitions the two-state point process model becomes a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM). We developed an efficient Bayesian computational scheme to fit HSMMs to spike train data. Numerical simulations indicate the method can perform well, sometimes yielding very different results than those based on PS.
A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ntantamis, Christos
This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...... with the higher mean and lower variance; bull market duration is found to be negatively dependent on short-term interest rates and positively on the interest rate spread, while bear market duration depends positively the short-term interest rate and negatively on the interest rate spread....
Hidden Markov Model-based Pedestrian Navigation System using MEMS Inertial Sensors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhang Yingjun
2015-02-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a foot-mounted pedestrian navigation system using MEMS inertial sensors is implemented, where the zero-velocity detection is abstracted into a hidden Markov model with 4 states and 15 observations. Moreover, an observations extraction algorithm has been developed to extract observations from sensor outputs; sample sets are used to train and optimize the model parameters by the Baum-Welch algorithm. Finally, a navigation system is developed, and the performance of the pedestrian navigation system is evaluated using indoor and outdoor field tests, and the results show that position error is less than 3% of total distance travelled.
Memetic Approaches for Optimizing Hidden Markov Models: A Case Study in Time Series Prediction
Bui, Lam Thu; Barlow, Michael
We propose a methodology for employing memetics (local search) within the framework of evolutionary algorithms to optimize parameters of hidden markov models. With this proposal, the rate and frequency of using local search are automatically changed over time either at a population or individual level. At the population level, we allow the rate of using local search to decay over time to zero (at the final generation). At the individual level, each individual is equipped with information of when it will do local search and for how long. This information evolves over time alongside the main elements of the chromosome representing the individual.
Prediction of inspection intervals using the Markov analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rea, R.; Arellano, J.
2005-01-01
To solve the unmanageable number of states of Markov of systems that have a great number of components, it is intends a modification to the method of Markov, denominated Markov truncated analysis, in which is assumed that it is worthless the dependence among faults of components. With it the number of states is increased in a lineal way (not exponential) with the number of components of the system, simplifying the analysis vastly. As example, the proposed method was applied to the system HPCS of the CLV considering its 18 main components. It thinks about that each component can take three states: operational, with hidden fault and with revealed fault. Additionally, it takes into account the configuration of the system HPCS by means of a block diagram of dependability to estimate their unavailability at level system. The results of the model here proposed are compared with other methods and approaches used to simplify the Markov analysis. It also intends the modification of the intervals of inspection of three components of the system HPCS. This finishes with base in the developed Markov model and in the maximum time allowed by the code ASME (NUREG-1482) to inspect components of systems that are in reservation in nuclear power plants. (Author)
A Prediction Mechanism of Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Israr Ullah
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Internet of Things (IoT is considered as one of the future disruptive technologies, which has the potential to bring positive change in human lifestyle and uplift living standards. Many IoT-based applications have been designed in various fields, e.g., security, health, education, manufacturing, transportation, etc. IoT has transformed conventional homes into Smart homes. By attaching small IoT devices to various appliances, we cannot only monitor but also control indoor environment as per user demand. Intelligent IoT devices can also be used for optimal energy utilization by operating the associated equipment only when it is needed. In this paper, we have proposed a Hidden Markov Model based algorithm to predict energy consumption in Korean residential buildings using data collected through smart meters. We have used energy consumption data collected from four multi-storied buildings located in Seoul, South Korea for model validation and results analysis. Proposed model prediction results are compared with three well-known prediction algorithms i.e., Support Vector Machine (SVM, Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Comparative analysis shows that our proposed model achieves 2.96 % better than ANN results in terms of root mean square error metric, 6.09 % better than SVM and 9.03 % better than CART results. To further establish and validate prediction results of our proposed model, we have performed temporal granularity analysis. For this purpose, we have evaluated our proposed model for hourly, daily and weekly data aggregation. Prediction accuracy in terms of root mean square error metric for hourly, daily and weekly data is 2.62, 1.54 and 0.46, respectively. This shows that our model prediction accuracy improves for coarse grain data. Higher prediction accuracy gives us confidence to further explore its application in building control systems for achieving better energy efficiency.
Modeling Strategic Use of Human Computer Interfaces with Novel Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laura Jane Mariano
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Immersive software tools are virtual environments designed to give their users an augmented view of real-world data and ways of manipulating that data. As virtual environments, every action users make while interacting with these tools can be carefully logged, as can the state of the software and the information it presents to the user, giving these actions context. This data provides a high-resolution lens through which dynamic cognitive and behavioral processes can be viewed. In this report, we describe new methods for the analysis and interpretation of such data, utilizing a novel implementation of the Beta Process Hidden Markov Model (BP-HMM for analysis of software activity logs. We further report the results of a preliminary study designed to establish the validity of our modeling approach. A group of 20 participants were asked to play a simple computer game, instrumented to log every interaction with the interface. Participants had no previous experience with the game’s functionality or rules, so the activity logs collected during their naïve interactions capture patterns of exploratory behavior and skill acquisition as they attempted to learn the rules of the game. Pre- and post-task questionnaires probed for self-reported styles of problem solving, as well as task engagement, difficulty, and workload. We jointly modeled the activity log sequences collected from all participants using the BP-HMM approach, identifying a global library of activity patterns representative of the collective behavior of all the participants. Analyses show systematic relationships between both pre- and post-task questionnaires, self-reported approaches to analytic problem solving, and metrics extracted from the BP-HMM decomposition. Overall, we find that this novel approach to decomposing unstructured behavioral data within software environments provides a sensible means for understanding how users learn to integrate software functionality for strategic
Chen, Pei; Liu, Rui; Li, Yongjun; Chen, Luonan
2016-07-15
Identifying the critical state or pre-transition state just before the occurrence of a phase transition is a challenging task, because the state of the system may show little apparent change before this critical transition during the gradual parameter variations. Such dynamics of phase transition is generally composed of three stages, i.e. before-transition state, pre-transition state and after-transition state, which can be considered as three different Markov processes. By exploring the rich dynamical information provided by high-throughput data, we present a novel computational method, i.e. hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach, to detect the switching point of the two Markov processes from the before-transition state (a stationary Markov process) to the pre-transition state (a time-varying Markov process), thereby identifying the pre-transition state or early-warning signals of the phase transition. To validate the effectiveness, we apply this method to detect the signals of the imminent phase transitions of complex systems based on the simulated datasets, and further identify the pre-transition states as well as their critical modules for three real datasets, i.e. the acute lung injury triggered by phosgene inhalation, MCF-7 human breast cancer caused by heregulin and HCV-induced dysplasia and hepatocellular carcinoma. Both functional and pathway enrichment analyses validate the computational results. The source code and some supporting files are available at https://github.com/rabbitpei/HMM_based-method lnchen@sibs.ac.cn or liyj@scut.edu.cn Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Score-based prediction of genomic islands in prokaryotic genomes using hidden Markov models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Surovcik Katharina
2006-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Horizontal gene transfer (HGT is considered a strong evolutionary force shaping the content of microbial genomes in a substantial manner. It is the difference in speed enabling the rapid adaptation to changing environmental demands that distinguishes HGT from gene genesis, duplications or mutations. For a precise characterization, algorithms are needed that identify transfer events with high reliability. Frequently, the transferred pieces of DNA have a considerable length, comprise several genes and are called genomic islands (GIs or more specifically pathogenicity or symbiotic islands. Results We have implemented the program SIGI-HMM that predicts GIs and the putative donor of each individual alien gene. It is based on the analysis of codon usage (CU of each individual gene of a genome under study. CU of each gene is compared against a carefully selected set of CU tables representing microbial donors or highly expressed genes. Multiple tests are used to identify putatively alien genes, to predict putative donors and to mask putatively highly expressed genes. Thus, we determine the states and emission probabilities of an inhomogeneous hidden Markov model working on gene level. For the transition probabilities, we draw upon classical test theory with the intention of integrating a sensitivity controller in a consistent manner. SIGI-HMM was written in JAVA and is publicly available. It accepts as input any file created according to the EMBL-format. It generates output in the common GFF format readable for genome browsers. Benchmark tests showed that the output of SIGI-HMM is in agreement with known findings. Its predictions were both consistent with annotated GIs and with predictions generated by different methods. Conclusion SIGI-HMM is a sensitive tool for the identification of GIs in microbial genomes. It allows to interactively analyze genomes in detail and to generate or to test hypotheses about the origin of acquired
Dang, Shilpa; Chaudhury, Santanu; Lall, Brejesh; Roy, Prasun Kumar
2017-02-15
Effective connectivity (EC) analysis of neuronal groups using fMRI delivers insights about functional-integration. However, fMRI signal has low-temporal resolution due to down-sampling and indirectly measures underlying neuronal activity. The aim is to address above issues for more reliable EC estimates. This paper proposes use of autoregressive hidden Markov model with missing data (AR-HMM-md) in dynamically multi-linked (DML) framework for learning EC using multiple fMRI time series. In our recent work (Dang et al., 2016), we have shown how AR-HMM-md for modelling single fMRI time series outperforms the existing methods. AR-HMM-md models unobserved neuronal activity and lost data over time as variables and estimates their values by joint optimization given fMRI observation sequence. The effectiveness in learning EC is shown using simulated experiments. Also the effects of sampling and noise are studied on EC. Moreover, classification-experiments are performed for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder subjects and age-matched controls for performance evaluation of real data. Using Bayesian model selection, we see that the proposed model converged to higher log-likelihood and demonstrated that group-classification can be performed with higher cross-validation accuracy of above 94% using distinctive network EC which characterizes patients vs. The full data EC obtained from DML-AR-HMM-md is more consistent with previous literature than the classical multivariate Granger causality method. The proposed architecture leads to reliable estimates of EC than the existing latent models. This framework overcomes the disadvantage of low-temporal resolution and improves cross-validation accuracy significantly due to presence of missing data variables and autoregressive process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Sun, Wei; Ding, Wei; Yan, Huifang; Duan, Shunli
2018-06-01
Shoe-mounted pedestrian navigation systems based on micro inertial sensors rely on zero velocity updates to correct their positioning errors in time, which effectively makes determining the zero velocity interval play a key role during normal walking. However, as walking gaits are complicated, and vary from person to person, it is difficult to detect walking gaits with a fixed threshold method. This paper proposes a pedestrian gait classification method based on a hidden Markov model. Pedestrian gait data are collected with a micro inertial measurement unit installed at the instep. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of the pedestrian walk, a single direction angular rate gyro output is used to classify gait features. The angular rate data are modeled into a univariate Gaussian mixture model with three components, and a four-state left–right continuous hidden Markov model (CHMM) is designed to classify the normal walking gait. The model parameters are trained and optimized using the Baum–Welch algorithm and then the sliding window Viterbi algorithm is used to decode the gait. Walking data are collected through eight subjects walking along the same route at three different speeds; the leave-one-subject-out cross validation method is conducted to test the model. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can accurately detect different walking gaits of zero velocity interval. The location experiment shows that the precision of CHMM-based pedestrian navigation improved by 40% when compared to the angular rate threshold method.
Segmenting Continuous Motions with Hidden Semi-markov Models and Gaussian Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomoaki Nakamura
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Humans divide perceived continuous information into segments to facilitate recognition. For example, humans can segment speech waves into recognizable morphemes. Analogously, continuous motions are segmented into recognizable unit actions. People can divide continuous information into segments without using explicit segment points. This capacity for unsupervised segmentation is also useful for robots, because it enables them to flexibly learn languages, gestures, and actions. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process-hidden semi-Markov model (GP-HSMM that can divide continuous time series data into segments in an unsupervised manner. Our proposed method consists of a generative model based on the hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM, the emission distributions of which are Gaussian processes (GPs. Continuous time series data is generated by connecting segments generated by the GP. Segmentation can be achieved by using forward filtering-backward sampling to estimate the model's parameters, including the lengths and classes of the segments. In an experiment using the CMU motion capture dataset, we tested GP-HSMM with motion capture data containing simple exercise motions; the results of this experiment showed that the proposed GP-HSMM was comparable with other methods. We also conducted an experiment using karate motion capture data, which is more complex than exercise motion capture data; in this experiment, the segmentation accuracy of GP-HSMM was 0.92, which outperformed other methods.
Speech-To-Text Conversion STT System Using Hidden Markov Model HMM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Su Myat Mon
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Speech is an easiest way to communicate with each other. Speech processing is widely used in many applications like security devices household appliances cellular phones ATM machines and computers. The human computer interface has been developed to communicate or interact conveniently for one who is suffering from some kind of disabilities. Speech-to-Text Conversion STT systems have a lot of benefits for the deaf or dumb people and find their applications in our daily lives. In the same way the aim of the system is to convert the input speech signals into the text output for the deaf or dumb students in the educational fields. This paper presents an approach to extract features by using Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients MFCC from the speech signals of isolated spoken words. And Hidden Markov Model HMM method is applied to train and test the audio files to get the recognized spoken word. The speech database is created by using MATLAB.Then the original speech signals are preprocessed and these speech samples are extracted to the feature vectors which are used as the observation sequences of the Hidden Markov Model HMM recognizer. The feature vectors are analyzed in the HMM depending on the number of states.
Hidden markov model for the prediction of transmembrane proteins using MATLAB.
Chaturvedi, Navaneet; Shanker, Sudhanshu; Singh, Vinay Kumar; Sinha, Dhiraj; Pandey, Paras Nath
2011-01-01
Since membranous proteins play a key role in drug targeting therefore transmembrane proteins prediction is active and challenging area of biological sciences. Location based prediction of transmembrane proteins are significant for functional annotation of protein sequences. Hidden markov model based method was widely applied for transmembrane topology prediction. Here we have presented a revised and a better understanding model than an existing one for transmembrane protein prediction. Scripting on MATLAB was built and compiled for parameter estimation of model and applied this model on amino acid sequence to know the transmembrane and its adjacent locations. Estimated model of transmembrane topology was based on TMHMM model architecture. Only 7 super states are defined in the given dataset, which were converted to 96 states on the basis of their length in sequence. Accuracy of the prediction of model was observed about 74 %, is a good enough in the area of transmembrane topology prediction. Therefore we have concluded the hidden markov model plays crucial role in transmembrane helices prediction on MATLAB platform and it could also be useful for drug discovery strategy. The database is available for free at bioinfonavneet@gmail.comvinaysingh@bhu.ac.in.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ririn Kusumawati
2016-05-01
In the classification, using Hidden Markov Model, voice signal is analyzed and searched the maximum possible value that can be recognized. The modeling results obtained parameters are used to compare with the sound of Arabic speakers. From the test results' Classification, Hidden Markov Models with Linear Predictive Coding extraction average accuracy of 78.6% for test data sampling frequency of 8,000 Hz, 80.2% for test data sampling frequency of 22050 Hz, 79% for frequencies sampling test data at 44100 Hz.
Basic problems and solution methods for two-dimensional continuous 3 × 3 order hidden Markov model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Guo-gang; Tang, Gui-jin; Gan, Zong-liang; Cui, Zi-guan; Zhu, Xiu-chang
2016-01-01
A novel model referred to as two-dimensional continuous 3 × 3 order hidden Markov model is put forward to avoid the disadvantages of the classical hypothesis of two-dimensional continuous hidden Markov model. This paper presents three equivalent definitions of the model, in which the state transition probability relies on not only immediate horizontal and vertical states but also immediate diagonal state, and in which the probability density of the observation relies on not only current state but also immediate horizontal and vertical states. The paper focuses on the three basic problems of the model, namely probability density calculation, parameters estimation and path backtracking. Some algorithms solving the questions are theoretically derived, by exploiting the idea that the sequences of states on rows or columns of the model can be viewed as states of a one-dimensional continuous 1 × 2 order hidden Markov model. Simulation results further demonstrate the performance of the algorithms. Because there are more statistical characteristics in the structure of the proposed new model, it can more accurately describe some practical problems, as compared to two-dimensional continuous hidden Markov model.
Stifter, Cynthia A.; Rovine, Michael
2015-01-01
The focus of the present longitudinal study, to examine mother-infant interaction during the administration of immunizations at 2 and 6?months of age, used hidden Markov modelling, a time series approach that produces latent states to describe how mothers and infants work together to bring the infant to a soothed state. Results revealed a…
Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model
Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.
2017-12-01
Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior
Post processing of optically recognized text via second order hidden Markov model
Poudel, Srijana
In this thesis, we describe a postprocessing system on Optical Character Recognition(OCR) generated text. Second Order Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used to detect and correct the OCR related errors. The reason for choosing the 2nd order HMM is to keep track of the bigrams so that the model can represent the system more accurately. Based on experiments with training data of 159,733 characters and testing of 5,688 characters, the model was able to correct 43.38 % of the errors with a precision of 75.34 %. However, the precision value indicates that the model introduced some new errors, decreasing the correction percentage to 26.4%.
Damage evaluation by a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method
Mei, Hanfei; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Zhang, Jinjin
2016-02-01
Guided wave based structural health monitoring has shown great potential in aerospace applications. However, one of the key challenges of practical engineering applications is the accurate interpretation of the guided wave signals under time-varying environmental and operational conditions. This paper presents a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method to improve the damage evaluation reliability of real aircraft structures under time-varying conditions. In the proposed approach, an HMM based unweighted moving average trend estimation method, which can capture the trend of damage propagation from the posterior probability obtained by HMM modeling is used to achieve a probabilistic evaluation of the structural damage. To validate the developed method, experiments are performed on a hole-edge crack specimen under fatigue loading condition and a real aircraft wing spar under changing structural boundary conditions. Experimental results show the advantage of the proposed method.
A Self-Adaptive Hidden Markov Model for Emotion Classification in Chinese Microblogs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Liu
2015-01-01
we propose a modified version of hidden Markov model (HMM classifier, called self-adaptive HMM, whose parameters are optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization algorithms. Since manually labeling large-scale dataset is difficult, we also employ the entropy to decide whether a new unlabeled tweet shall be contained in the training dataset after being assigned an emotion using our HMM-based approach. In the experiment, we collected about 200,000 Chinese tweets from Sina Weibo. The results show that the F-score of our approach gets 76% on happiness and fear and 65% on anger, surprise, and sadness. In addition, the self-adaptive HMM classifier outperforms Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine on recognition of happiness, anger, and sadness.
Non-intrusive gesture recognition system combining with face detection based on Hidden Markov Model
Jin, Jing; Wang, Yuanqing; Xu, Liujing; Cao, Liqun; Han, Lei; Zhou, Biye; Li, Minggao
2014-11-01
A non-intrusive gesture recognition human-machine interaction system is proposed in this paper. In order to solve the hand positioning problem which is a difficulty in current algorithms, face detection is used for the pre-processing to narrow the search area and find user's hand quickly and accurately. Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used for gesture recognition. A certain number of basic gesture units are trained as HMM models. At the same time, an improved 8-direction feature vector is proposed and used to quantify characteristics in order to improve the detection accuracy. The proposed system can be applied in interaction equipments without special training for users, such as household interactive television
Hidden Markov Item Response Theory Models for Responses and Response Times.
Molenaar, Dylan; Oberski, Daniel; Vermunt, Jeroen; De Boeck, Paul
2016-01-01
Current approaches to model responses and response times to psychometric tests solely focus on between-subject differences in speed and ability. Within subjects, speed and ability are assumed to be constants. Violations of this assumption are generally absorbed in the residual of the model. As a result, within-subject departures from the between-subject speed and ability level remain undetected. These departures may be of interest to the researcher as they reflect differences in the response processes adopted on the items of a test. In this article, we propose a dynamic approach for responses and response times based on hidden Markov modeling to account for within-subject differences in responses and response times. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate acceptable parameter recovery and acceptable performance of various fit indices in distinguishing between different models. In addition, both a confirmatory and an exploratory application are presented to demonstrate the practical value of the modeling approach.
A Coupled Hidden Markov Random Field Model for Simultaneous Face Clustering and Tracking in Videos
Wu, Baoyuan
2016-10-25
Face clustering and face tracking are two areas of active research in automatic facial video processing. They, however, have long been studied separately, despite the inherent link between them. In this paper, we propose to perform simultaneous face clustering and face tracking from real world videos. The motivation for the proposed research is that face clustering and face tracking can provide useful information and constraints to each other, thus can bootstrap and improve the performances of each other. To this end, we introduce a Coupled Hidden Markov Random Field (CHMRF) to simultaneously model face clustering, face tracking, and their interactions. We provide an effective algorithm based on constrained clustering and optimal tracking for the joint optimization of cluster labels and face tracking. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art results in face clustering and tracking on several videos.
Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Ling; Han, Lei
2018-04-01
Convective storm nowcasting refers to the prediction of the convective weather initiation, development, and decay in a very short term (typically 0 2 h) .Despite marked progress over the past years, severe convective storm nowcasting still remains a challenge. With the boom of machine learning, it has been well applied in various fields, especially convolutional neural network (CNN). In this paper, we build a servere convective weather nowcasting system based on CNN and hidden Markov model (HMM) using reanalysis meteorological data. The goal of convective storm nowcasting is to predict if there is a convective storm in 30min. In this paper, we compress the VDRAS reanalysis data to low-dimensional data by CNN as the observation vector of HMM, then obtain the development trend of strong convective weather in the form of time series. It shows that, our method can extract robust features without any artificial selection of features, and can capture the development trend of strong convective storm.
A Method for Driving Route Predictions Based on Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ning Ye
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We present a driving route prediction method that is based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM. This method can accurately predict a vehicle’s entire route as early in a trip’s lifetime as possible without inputting origins and destinations beforehand. Firstly, we propose the route recommendation system architecture, where route predictions play important role in the system. Secondly, we define a road network model, normalize each of driving routes in the rectangular coordinate system, and build the HMM to make preparation for route predictions using a method of training set extension based on K-means++ and the add-one (Laplace smoothing technique. Thirdly, we present the route prediction algorithm. Finally, the experimental results of the effectiveness of the route predictions that is based on HMM are shown.
Using hidden Markov models to deal with availability bias on line transect surveys.
Borchers, D L; Zucchini, W; Heide-Jørgensen, M P; Cañadas, A; Langrock, R
2013-09-01
We develop estimators for line transect surveys of animals that are stochastically unavailable for detection while within detection range. The detection process is formulated as a hidden Markov model with a binary state-dependent observation model that depends on both perpendicular and forward distances. This provides a parametric method of dealing with availability bias when estimates of availability process parameters are available even if series of availability events themselves are not. We apply the estimators to an aerial and a shipboard survey of whales, and investigate their properties by simulation. They are shown to be more general and more flexible than existing estimators based on parametric models of the availability process. We also find that methods using availability correction factors can be very biased when surveys are not close to being instantaneous, as can estimators that assume temporal independence in availability when there is temporal dependence. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.
Passive acoustic leak detection for sodium cooled fast reactors using hidden Markov models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Riber Marklund, A. [CEA, Cadarache, DEN/DTN/STCP/LIET, Batiment 202, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance, (France); Kishore, S. [Fast Reactor Technology Group of IGCAR, (India); Prakash, V. [Vibrations Diagnostics Division, Fast Reactor Technology Group of IGCAR, (India); Rajan, K.K. [Fast Reactor Technology Group and Engineering Services Group of IGCAR, (India)
2015-07-01
Acoustic leak detection for steam generators of sodium fast reactors have been an active research topic since the early 1970's and several methods have been tested over the years. Inspired by its success in the field of automatic speech recognition, we here apply hidden Markov models (HMM) in combination with Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to the problem. To achieve this, we propose a new feature calculation scheme, based on the temporal evolution of the power spectral density (PSD) of the signal. Using acoustic signals recorded during steam/water injection experiments done at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), the proposed method is tested. We perform parametric studies on the HMM+GMM model size and demonstrate that the proposed method a) performs well without a priori knowledge of injection noise, b) can incorporate several noise models and c) has an output distribution that simplifies false alarm rate control. (authors)
Multi-category micro-milling tool wear monitoring with continuous hidden Markov models
Zhu, Kunpeng; Wong, Yoke San; Hong, Geok Soon
2009-02-01
In-process monitoring of tool conditions is important in micro-machining due to the high precision requirement and high tool wear rate. Tool condition monitoring in micro-machining poses new challenges compared to conventional machining. In this paper, a multi-category classification approach is proposed for tool flank wear state identification in micro-milling. Continuous Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are adapted for modeling of the tool wear process in micro-milling, and estimation of the tool wear state given the cutting force features. For a noise-robust approach, the HMM outputs are connected via a medium filter to minimize the tool state before entry into the next state due to high noise level. A detailed study on the selection of HMM structures for tool condition monitoring (TCM) is presented. Case studies on the tool state estimation in the micro-milling of pure copper and steel demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of these methods.
Naive scoring of human sleep based on a hidden Markov model of the electroencephalogram.
Yaghouby, Farid; Modur, Pradeep; Sunderam, Sridhar
2014-01-01
Clinical sleep scoring involves tedious visual review of overnight polysomnograms by a human expert. Many attempts have been made to automate the process by training computer algorithms such as support vector machines and hidden Markov models (HMMs) to replicate human scoring. Such supervised classifiers are typically trained on scored data and then validated on scored out-of-sample data. Here we describe a methodology based on HMMs for scoring an overnight sleep recording without the benefit of a trained initial model. The number of states in the data is not known a priori and is optimized using a Bayes information criterion. When tested on a 22-subject database, this unsupervised classifier agreed well with human scores (mean of Cohen's kappa > 0.7). The HMM also outperformed other unsupervised classifiers (Gaussian mixture models, k-means, and linkage trees), that are capable of naive classification but do not model dynamics, by a significant margin (p < 0.05).
Name segmentation using hidden Markov models and its application in record linkage
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rita de Cassia Braga Gonçalves
2014-10-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the use of hidden Markov models (HMM for the segmentation of person names and its influence on record linkage. A HMM was applied to the segmentation of patient’s and mother’s names in the databases of the Mortality Information System (SIM, Information Subsystem for High Complexity Procedures (APAC, and Hospital Information System (AIH. A sample of 200 patients from each database was segmented via HMM, and the results were compared to those from segmentation by the authors. The APAC-SIM and APAC-AIH databases were linked using three different segmentation strategies, one of which used HMM. Conformity of segmentation via HMM varied from 90.5% to 92.5%. The different segmentation strategies yielded similar results in the record linkage process. This study suggests that segmentation of Brazilian names via HMM is no more effective than traditional segmentation approaches in the linkage process.
Hidden Markov model tracking of continuous gravitational waves from young supernova remnants
Sun, L.; Melatos, A.; Suvorova, S.; Moran, W.; Evans, R. J.
2018-02-01
Searches for persistent gravitational radiation from nonpulsating neutron stars in young supernova remnants are computationally challenging because of rapid stellar braking. We describe a practical, efficient, semicoherent search based on a hidden Markov model tracking scheme, solved by the Viterbi algorithm, combined with a maximum likelihood matched filter, the F statistic. The scheme is well suited to analyzing data from advanced detectors like the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (Advanced LIGO). It can track rapid phase evolution from secular stellar braking and stochastic timing noise torques simultaneously without searching second- and higher-order derivatives of the signal frequency, providing an economical alternative to stack-slide-based semicoherent algorithms. One implementation tracks the signal frequency alone. A second implementation tracks the signal frequency and its first time derivative. It improves the sensitivity by a factor of a few upon the first implementation, but the cost increases by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude.
Aucouturier, Jean-Julien; Nonaka, Yulri; Katahira, Kentaro; Okanoya, Kazuo
2011-11-01
The paper describes an application of machine learning techniques to identify expiratory and inspiration phases from the audio recording of human baby cries. Crying episodes were recorded from 14 infants, spanning four vocalization contexts in their first 12 months of age; recordings from three individuals were annotated manually to identify expiratory and inspiratory sounds and used as training examples to segment automatically the recordings of the other 11 individuals. The proposed algorithm uses a hidden Markov model architecture, in which state likelihoods are estimated either with Gaussian mixture models or by converting the classification decisions of a support vector machine. The algorithm yields up to 95% classification precision (86% average), and its ability generalizes over different babies, different ages, and vocalization contexts. The technique offers an opportunity to quantify expiration duration, count the crying rate, and other time-related characteristics of baby crying for screening, diagnosis, and research purposes over large populations of infants.
Bi-dimension decomposed hidden Markov models for multi-person activity recognition
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Wei-dong ZHANG; Feng CHEN; Wen-li XU
2009-01-01
We present a novel model for recognizing long-term complex activities involving multiple persons. The proposed model, named 'decomposed hidden Markov model' (DHMM), combines spatial decomposition and hierarchical abstraction to capture multi-modal, long-term dependent and multi-scale characteristics of activities. Decomposition in space and time offers conceptual advantages of compaction and clarity, and greatly reduces the size of state space as well as the number of parameters.DHMMs are efficient even when the number of persons is variable. We also introduce an efficient approximation algorithm for inference and parameter estimation. Experiments on multi-person activities and multi-modal individual activities demonstrate that DHMMs are more efficient and reliable than familiar models, such as coupled HMMs, hierarchical HMMs, and multi-observation HMMs.
Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc
2013-01-01
By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rea, R.; Arellano, J. [IIE, Calle Reforma 113, Col. Palmira, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)]. e-mail: rrea@iie.org.mx
2005-07-01
To solve the unmanageable number of states of Markov of systems that have a great number of components, it is intends a modification to the method of Markov, denominated Markov truncated analysis, in which is assumed that it is worthless the dependence among faults of components. With it the number of states is increased in a lineal way (not exponential) with the number of components of the system, simplifying the analysis vastly. As example, the proposed method was applied to the system HPCS of the CLV considering its 18 main components. It thinks about that each component can take three states: operational, with hidden fault and with revealed fault. Additionally, it takes into account the configuration of the system HPCS by means of a block diagram of dependability to estimate their unavailability at level system. The results of the model here proposed are compared with other methods and approaches used to simplify the Markov analysis. It also intends the modification of the intervals of inspection of three components of the system HPCS. This finishes with base in the developed Markov model and in the maximum time allowed by the code ASME (NUREG-1482) to inspect components of systems that are in reservation in nuclear power plants. (Author)
A Hidden Markov Model for Urban-Scale Traffic Estimation Using Floating Car Data.
Wang, Xiaomeng; Peng, Ling; Chi, Tianhe; Li, Mengzhu; Yao, Xiaojing; Shao, Jing
2015-01-01
Urban-scale traffic monitoring plays a vital role in reducing traffic congestion. Owing to its low cost and wide coverage, floating car data (FCD) serves as a novel approach to collecting traffic data. However, sparse probe data represents the vast majority of the data available on arterial roads in most urban environments. In order to overcome the problem of data sparseness, this paper proposes a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based traffic estimation model, in which the traffic condition on a road segment is considered as a hidden state that can be estimated according to the conditions of road segments having similar traffic characteristics. An algorithm based on clustering and pattern mining rather than on adjacency relationships is proposed to find clusters with road segments having similar traffic characteristics. A multi-clustering strategy is adopted to achieve a trade-off between clustering accuracy and coverage. Finally, the proposed model is designed and implemented on the basis of a real-time algorithm. Results of experiments based on real FCD confirm the applicability, accuracy, and efficiency of the model. In addition, the results indicate that the model is practicable for traffic estimation on urban arterials and works well even when more than 70% of the probe data are missing.
An Efficient Algorithm for Modelling Duration in Hidden Markov Models, with a Dramatic Application
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hauberg, Søren; Sloth, Jakob
2008-01-01
For many years, the hidden Markov model (HMM) has been one of the most popular tools for analysing sequential data. One frequently used special case is the left-right model, in which the order of the hidden states is known. If knowledge of the duration of a state is available it is not possible...... to represent it explicitly with an HMM. Methods for modelling duration with HMM's do exist (Rabiner in Proc. IEEE 77(2):257---286, [1989]), but they come at the price of increased computational complexity. Here we present an efficient and robust algorithm for modelling duration in HMM's, and this algorithm...
Identification of temporal patterns in the seismicity of Sumatra using Poisson Hidden Markov models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katerina Orfanogiannaki
2014-05-01
Full Text Available On 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005 two large earthquakes occurred between the Indo-Australian and the southeastern Eurasian plates with moment magnitudes Mw=9.1 and Mw=8.6, respectively. Complete data (mb≥4.2 of the post-1993 time interval have been used to apply Poisson Hidden Markov models (PHMMs for identifying temporal patterns in the time series of the two earthquake sequences. Each time series consists of earthquake counts, in given and constant time units, in the regions determined by the aftershock zones of the two mainshocks. In PHMMs each count is generated by one of m different Poisson processes that are called states. The series of states is unobserved and is in fact a Markov chain. The model incorporates a varying seismicity rate, it assigns a different rate to each state and it detects the changes on the rate over time. In PHMMs unobserved factors, related to the local properties of the region are considered affecting the earthquake occurrence rate. Estimation and interpretation of the unobserved sequence of states that underlie the data contribute to better understanding of the geophysical processes that take place in the region. We applied PHMMs to the time series of the two mainshocks and we estimated the unobserved sequences of states that underlie the data. The results obtained showed that the region of the 26 December 2004 earthquake was in state of low seismicity during almost the entire observation period. On the contrary, in the region of the 28 March 2005 earthquake the seismic activity is attributed to triggered seismicity, due to stress transfer from the region of the 2004 mainshock.
Hidden Crises and Communication: An Interactional Analysis of Hidden Crises
dr. Annette Klarenbeek
2011-01-01
In this paper I describe the ways in which the communication discipline can make a hidden crisis transparent. For this purpose I examine the concept of crisis entrepreneurship from a communication point of view. Using discourse analysis, I analyse the discursive practices of crisis entrepreneurs in
Hidden Crises and Communication : An Interactional Analysis of Hidden Crises
dr. Annette Klarenbeek
2011-01-01
In this paper I describe the ways in which the communication discipline can make a hidden crisis transparent. For this purpose I examine the concept of crisis entrepreneurship from a communication point of view. Using discourse analysis, I analyse the discursive practices of crisis entrepreneurs in
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Beyreuther, Moritz; Wassermann, Joachim [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (Geophys. Observatory), Ludwig Maximilians Universitaet Muenchen, D-80333 (Germany); Carniel, Roberto [Dipartimento di Georisorse e Territorio Universitat Degli Studi di Udine, I-33100 (Italy)], E-mail: roberto.carniel@uniud.it
2008-10-01
A possible interaction of (volcano-) tectonic earthquakes with the continuous seismic noise recorded in the volcanic island of Tenerife was recently suggested, but existing catalogues seem to be far from being self consistent, calling for the development of automatic detection and classification algorithms. In this work we propose the adoption of a methodology based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), widely used already in other fields, such as speech classification.
A classification of marked hijaiyah letters' pronunciation using hidden Markov model
Wisesty, Untari N.; Mubarok, M. Syahrul; Adiwijaya
2017-08-01
Hijaiyah letters are the letters that arrange the words in Al Qur'an consisting of 28 letters. They symbolize the consonant sounds. On the other hand, the vowel sounds are symbolized by harokat/marks. Speech recognition system is a system used to process the sound signal to be data so that it can be recognized by computer. To build the system, some stages are needed i.e characteristics/feature extraction and classification. In this research, LPC and MFCC extraction method, K-Means Quantization vector and Hidden Markov Model classification are used. The data used are the 28 letters and 6 harakat with the total class of 168. After several are testing done, it can be concluded that the system can recognize the pronunciation pattern of marked hijaiyah letter very well in the training data with its highest accuracy of 96.1% using the feature of LPC extraction and 94% using the MFCC. Meanwhile, when testing system is used, the accuracy decreases up to 41%.
A Two-Channel Training Algorithm for Hidden Markov Model and Its Application to Lip Reading
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Foo Say Wei
2005-01-01
Full Text Available Hidden Markov model (HMM has been a popular mathematical approach for sequence classification such as speech recognition since 1980s. In this paper, a novel two-channel training strategy is proposed for discriminative training of HMM. For the proposed training strategy, a novel separable-distance function that measures the difference between a pair of training samples is adopted as the criterion function. The symbol emission matrix of an HMM is split into two channels: a static channel to maintain the validity of the HMM and a dynamic channel that is modified to maximize the separable distance. The parameters of the two-channel HMM are estimated by iterative application of expectation-maximization (EM operations. As an example of the application of the novel approach, a hierarchical speaker-dependent visual speech recognition system is trained using the two-channel HMMs. Results of experiments on identifying a group of confusable visemes indicate that the proposed approach is able to increase the recognition accuracy by an average of 20% compared with the conventional HMMs that are trained with the Baum-Welch estimation.
Cluster-based adaptive power control protocol using Hidden Markov Model for Wireless Sensor Networks
Vinutha, C. B.; Nalini, N.; Nagaraja, M.
2017-06-01
This paper presents strategies for an efficient and dynamic transmission power control technique, in order to reduce packet drop and hence energy consumption of power-hungry sensor nodes operated in highly non-linear channel conditions of Wireless Sensor Networks. Besides, we also focus to prolong network lifetime and scalability by designing cluster-based network structure. Specifically we consider weight-based clustering approach wherein, minimum significant node is chosen as Cluster Head (CH) which is computed stemmed from the factors distance, remaining residual battery power and received signal strength (RSS). Further, transmission power control schemes to fit into dynamic channel conditions are meticulously implemented using Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where probability transition matrix is formulated based on the observed RSS measurements. Typically, CH estimates initial transmission power of its cluster members (CMs) from RSS using HMM and broadcast this value to its CMs for initialising their power value. Further, if CH finds that there are variations in link quality and RSS of the CMs, it again re-computes and optimises the transmission power level of the nodes using HMM to avoid packet loss due noise interference. We have demonstrated our simulation results to prove that our technique efficiently controls the power levels of sensing nodes to save significant quantity of energy for different sized network.
Enhancing Speech Recognition Using Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lokesh Selvaraj
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Enhancing speech recognition is the primary intention of this work. In this paper a novel speech recognition method based on vector quantization and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO is suggested. The suggested methodology contains four stages, namely, (i denoising, (ii feature mining (iii, vector quantization, and (iv IPSO based hidden Markov model (HMM technique (IP-HMM. At first, the speech signals are denoised using median filter. Next, characteristics such as peak, pitch spectrum, Mel frequency Cepstral coefficients (MFCC, mean, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum of the signal are extorted from the denoised signal. Following that, to accomplish the training process, the extracted characteristics are given to genetic algorithm based codebook generation in vector quantization. The initial populations are created by selecting random code vectors from the training set for the codebooks for the genetic algorithm process and IP-HMM helps in doing the recognition. At this point the creativeness will be done in terms of one of the genetic operation crossovers. The proposed speech recognition technique offers 97.14% accuracy.
Spatial Region Estimation for Autonomous CoT Clustering Using Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joon‐young Jung
2018-02-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a hierarchical dual filtering (HDF algorithm to estimate the spatial region between a Cloud of Things (CoT gateway and an Internet of Things (IoT device. The accuracy of the spatial region estimation is important for autonomous CoT clustering. We conduct spatial region estimation using a hidden Markov model (HMM with a raw Bluetooth received signal strength indicator (RSSI. However, the accuracy of the region estimation using the validation data is only 53.8%. To increase the accuracy of the spatial region estimation, the HDF algorithm removes the high‐frequency signals hierarchically, and alters the parameters according to whether the IoT device moves. The accuracy of spatial region estimation using a raw RSSI, Kalman filter, and HDF are compared to evaluate the effectiveness of the HDF algorithm. The success rate and root mean square error (RMSE of all regions are 0.538, 0.622, and 0.75, and 0.997, 0.812, and 0.5 when raw RSSI, a Kalman filter, and HDF are used, respectively. The HDF algorithm attains the best results in terms of the success rate and RMSE of spatial region estimation using HMM.
A transition-constrained discrete hidden Markov model for automatic sleep staging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pan Shing-Tai
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Approximately one-third of the human lifespan is spent sleeping. To diagnose sleep problems, all-night polysomnographic (PSG recordings including electroencephalograms (EEGs, electrooculograms (EOGs and electromyograms (EMGs, are usually acquired from the patient and scored by a well-trained expert according to Rechtschaffen & Kales (R&K rules. Visual sleep scoring is a time-consuming and subjective process. Therefore, the development of an automatic sleep scoring method is desirable. Method The EEG, EOG and EMG signals from twenty subjects were measured. In addition to selecting sleep characteristics based on the 1968 R&K rules, features utilized in other research were collected. Thirteen features were utilized including temporal and spectrum analyses of the EEG, EOG and EMG signals, and a total of 158 hours of sleep data were recorded. Ten subjects were used to train the Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM, and the remaining ten were tested by the trained DHMM for recognition. Furthermore, the 2-fold cross validation was performed during this experiment. Results Overall agreement between the expert and the results presented is 85.29%. With the exception of S1, the sensitivities of each stage were more than 81%. The most accurate stage was SWS (94.9%, and the least-accurately classified stage was S1 ( Conclusion The results of the experiments demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances the recognition rate when compared with prior studies.
Capturing the state transitions of seizure-like events using Hidden Markov models.
Guirgis, Mirna; Serletis, Demitre; Carlen, Peter L; Bardakjian, Berj L
2011-01-01
The purpose of this study was to investigate the number of states present in the progression of a seizure-like event (SLE). Of particular interest is to determine if there are more than two clearly defined states, as this would suggest that there is a distinct state preceding an SLE. Whole-intact hippocampus from C57/BL mice was used to model epileptiform activity induced by the perfusion of a low Mg(2+)/high K(+) solution while extracellular field potentials were recorded from CA3 pyramidal neurons. Hidden Markov models (HMM) were used to model the state transitions of the recorded SLEs by incorporating various features of the Hilbert transform into the training algorithm; specifically, 2- and 3-state HMMs were explored. Although the 2-state model was able to distinguish between SLE and nonSLE behavior, it provided no improvements compared to visual inspection alone. However, the 3-state model was able to capture two distinct nonSLE states that visual inspection failed to discriminate. Moreover, by developing an HMM based system a priori knowledge of the state transitions was not required making this an ideal platform for seizure prediction algorithms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Chen
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Gesture recognition is essential for human and robot collaboration. Within an industrial hybrid assembly cell, the performance of such a system significantly affects the safety of human workers. This work presents an approach to recognizing hand gestures accurately during an assembly task while in collaboration with a robot co-worker. We have designed and developed a sensor system for measuring natural human-robot interactions. The position and rotation information of a human worker's hands and fingertips are tracked in 3D space while completing a task. A modified chain-code method is proposed to describe the motion trajectory of the measured hands and fingertips. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM method is adopted to recognize patterns via data streams and identify workers' gesture patterns and assembly intentions. The effectiveness of the proposed system is verified by experimental results. The outcome demonstrates that the proposed system is able to automatically segment the data streams and recognize the gesture patterns thus represented with a reasonable accuracy ratio.
QRS complex detection based on continuous density hidden Markov models using univariate observations
Sotelo, S.; Arenas, W.; Altuve, M.
2018-04-01
In the electrocardiogram (ECG), the detection of QRS complexes is a fundamental step in the ECG signal processing chain since it allows the determination of other characteristics waves of the ECG and provides information about heart rate variability. In this work, an automatic QRS complex detector based on continuous density hidden Markov models (HMM) is proposed. HMM were trained using univariate observation sequences taken either from QRS complexes or their derivatives. The detection approach is based on the log-likelihood comparison of the observation sequence with a fixed threshold. A sliding window was used to obtain the observation sequence to be evaluated by the model. The threshold was optimized by receiver operating characteristic curves. Sensitivity (Sen), specificity (Spc) and F1 score were used to evaluate the detection performance. The approach was validated using ECG recordings from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. A 6-fold cross-validation shows that the best detection performance was achieved with 2 states HMM trained with QRS complexes sequences (Sen = 0.668, Spc = 0.360 and F1 = 0.309). We concluded that these univariate sequences provide enough information to characterize the QRS complex dynamics from HMM. Future works are directed to the use of multivariate observations to increase the detection performance.
Reverse engineering a social agent-based hidden markov model--visage.
Chen, Hung-Ching Justin; Goldberg, Mark; Magdon-Ismail, Malik; Wallace, William A
2008-12-01
We present a machine learning approach to discover the agent dynamics that drives the evolution of the social groups in a community. We set up the problem by introducing an agent-based hidden Markov model for the agent dynamics: an agent's actions are determined by micro-laws. Nonetheless, We learn the agent dynamics from the observed communications without knowing state transitions. Our approach is to identify the appropriate micro-laws corresponding to an identification of the appropriate parameters in the model. The model identification problem is then formulated as a mixed optimization problem. To solve the problem, we develop a multistage learning process for determining the group structure, the group evolution, and the micro-laws of a community based on the observed set of communications among actors, without knowing the semantic contents. Finally, to test the quality of our approximations and the feasibility of the approach, we present the results of extensive experiments on synthetic data as well as the results on real communities, such as Enron email and Movie newsgroups. Insight into agent dynamics helps us understand the driving forces behind social evolution.
Using Hidden Markov Models to characterise intermittent social behaviour in fish shoals
Bode, Nikolai W. F.; Seitz, Michael J.
2018-02-01
The movement of animals in groups is widespread in nature. Understanding this phenomenon presents an important problem in ecology with many applications that range from conservation to robotics. Underlying all group movements are interactions between individual animals and it is therefore crucial to understand the mechanisms of this social behaviour. To date, despite promising methodological developments, there are few applications to data of practical statistical techniques that inferentially investigate the extent and nature of social interactions in group movement. We address this gap by demonstrating the usefulness of a Hidden Markov Model approach to characterise individual-level social movement in published trajectory data on three-spined stickleback shoals ( Gasterosteus aculeatus) and novel data on guppy shoals ( Poecilia reticulata). With these models, we formally test for speed-mediated social interactions and verify that they are present. We further characterise this inferred social behaviour and find that despite the substantial shoal-level differences in movement dynamics between species, it is qualitatively similar in guppies and sticklebacks. It is intermittent, occurring in varying numbers of individuals at different time points. The speeds of interacting fish follow a bimodal distribution, indicating that they are either stationary or move at a preferred mean speed, and social fish with more social neighbours move at higher speeds, on average. Our findings and methodology present steps towards characterising social behaviour in animal groups.
Identifying bubble collapse in a hydrothermal system using hidden Markov models
Dawson, P.B.; Benitez, M.C.; Lowenstern, J. B.; Chouet, B.A.
2012-01-01
Beginning in July 2003 and lasting through September 2003, the Norris Geyser Basin in Yellowstone National Park exhibited an unusual increase in ground temperature and hydrothermal activity. Using hidden Markov model theory, we identify over five million high-frequency (>15Hz) seismic events observed at a temporary seismic station deployed in the basin in response to the increase in hydrothermal activity. The source of these seismic events is constrained to within ???100 m of the station, and produced ???3500-5500 events per hour with mean durations of ???0.35-0.45s. The seismic event rate, air temperature, hydrologic temperatures, and surficial water flow of the geyser basin exhibited a marked diurnal pattern that was closely associated with solar thermal radiance. We interpret the source of the seismicity to be due to the collapse of small steam bubbles in the hydrothermal system, with the rate of collapse being controlled by surficial temperatures and daytime evaporation rates. copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.
Development of a Fault Monitoring Technique for Wind Turbines Using a Hidden Markov Model.
Shin, Sung-Hwan; Kim, SangRyul; Seo, Yun-Ho
2018-06-02
Regular inspection for the maintenance of the wind turbines is difficult because of their remote locations. For this reason, condition monitoring systems (CMSs) are typically installed to monitor their health condition. The purpose of this study is to propose a fault detection algorithm for the mechanical parts of the wind turbine. To this end, long-term vibration data were collected over two years by a CMS installed on a 3 MW wind turbine. The vibration distribution at a specific rotating speed of main shaft is approximated by the Weibull distribution and its cumulative distribution function is utilized for determining the threshold levels that indicate impending failure of mechanical parts. A Hidden Markov model (HMM) is employed to propose the statistical fault detection algorithm in the time domain and the method whereby the input sequence for HMM is extracted is also introduced by considering the threshold levels and the correlation between the signals. Finally, it was demonstrated that the proposed HMM algorithm achieved a greater than 95% detection success rate by using the long-term signals.
Hossen, Jakir; Jacobs, Eddie L.; Chari, Srikant
2015-07-01
Linear pyroelectric array sensors have enabled useful classifications of objects such as humans and animals to be performed with relatively low-cost hardware in border and perimeter security applications. Ongoing research has sought to improve the performance of these sensors through signal processing algorithms. In the research presented here, we introduce the use of hidden Markov tree (HMT) models for object recognition in images generated by linear pyroelectric sensors. HMTs are trained to statistically model the wavelet features of individual objects through an expectation-maximization learning process. Human versus animal classification for a test object is made by evaluating its wavelet features against the trained HMTs using the maximum-likelihood criterion. The classification performance of this approach is compared to two other techniques; a texture, shape, and spectral component features (TSSF) based classifier and a speeded-up robust feature (SURF) classifier. The evaluation indicates that among the three techniques, the wavelet-based HMT model works well, is robust, and has improved classification performance compared to a SURF-based algorithm in equivalent computation time. When compared to the TSSF-based classifier, the HMT model has a slightly degraded performance but almost an order of magnitude improvement in computation time enabling real-time implementation.
Ma, Xiang; Schonfeld, Dan; Khokhar, Ashfaq A
2009-06-01
In this paper, we propose a novel solution to an arbitrary noncausal, multidimensional hidden Markov model (HMM) for image and video classification. First, we show that the noncausal model can be solved by splitting it into multiple causal HMMs and simultaneously solving each causal HMM using a fully synchronous distributed computing framework, therefore referred to as distributed HMMs. Next we present an approximate solution to the multiple causal HMMs that is based on an alternating updating scheme and assumes a realistic sequential computing framework. The parameters of the distributed causal HMMs are estimated by extending the classical 1-D training and classification algorithms to multiple dimensions. The proposed extension to arbitrary causal, multidimensional HMMs allows state transitions that are dependent on all causal neighbors. We, thus, extend three fundamental algorithms to multidimensional causal systems, i.e., 1) expectation-maximization (EM), 2) general forward-backward (GFB), and 3) Viterbi algorithms. In the simulations, we choose to limit ourselves to a noncausal 2-D model whose noncausality is along a single dimension, in order to significantly reduce the computational complexity. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance, higher accuracy rate, and applicability of the proposed noncausal HMM framework to image and video classification.
Hidden Markov model approach for identifying the modular framework of the protein backbone.
Camproux, A C; Tuffery, P; Chevrolat, J P; Boisvieux, J F; Hazout, S
1999-12-01
The hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to identify recurrent short 3D structural building blocks (SBBs) describing protein backbones, independently of any a priori knowledge. Polypeptide chains are decomposed into a series of short segments defined by their inter-alpha-carbon distances. Basically, the model takes into account the sequentiality of the observed segments and assumes that each one corresponds to one of several possible SBBs. Fitting the model to a database of non-redundant proteins allowed us to decode proteins in terms of 12 distinct SBBs with different roles in protein structure. Some SBBs correspond to classical regular secondary structures. Others correspond to a significant subdivision of their bounding regions previously considered to be a single pattern. The major contribution of the HMM is that this model implicitly takes into account the sequential connections between SBBs and thus describes the most probable pathways by which the blocks are connected to form the framework of the protein structures. Validation of the SBBs code was performed by extracting SBB series repeated in recoding proteins and examining their structural similarities. Preliminary results on the sequence specificity of SBBs suggest promising perspectives for the prediction of SBBs or series of SBBs from the protein sequences.
Snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor based on hidden Markov models.
Lee, Hyo-Ki; Lee, Jeon; Kim, Hojoong; Ha, Jin-Young; Lee, Kyoung-Joung
2013-05-01
This study presents a snoring detection method based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) using a piezo snoring sensor. Snoring is a major symptom of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). In most sleep studies, snoring is detected with a microphone. Since these studies analyze the acoustic properties of snoring, they need to acquire data at high sampling rates, so a large amount of data should be processed. Recently, several sleep studies have monitored snoring using a piezo snoring sensor. However, an automatic method for snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor has not been reported in the literature. This study proposed the HMM-based method to detect snoring using this sensor, which is attached to the neck. The data from 21 patients with OSA were gathered for training and test sets. The short-time Fourier transform and short-time energy were computed so they could be applied to HMMs. The data were classified as snoring, noise and silence according to their HMMs. As a result, the sensitivity and the positive predictivity values were 93.3% and 99.1% for snoring detection, respectively. The results demonstrated that the method produced simple, portable and user-friendly detection tools that provide an alternative to the microphone-based method.
Snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor based on hidden Markov models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Hyo-Ki; Lee, Jeon; Lee, Kyoung-Joung; Kim, Hojoong; Ha, Jin-Young
2013-01-01
This study presents a snoring detection method based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) using a piezo snoring sensor. Snoring is a major symptom of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). In most sleep studies, snoring is detected with a microphone. Since these studies analyze the acoustic properties of snoring, they need to acquire data at high sampling rates, so a large amount of data should be processed. Recently, several sleep studies have monitored snoring using a piezo snoring sensor. However, an automatic method for snoring detection using a piezo snoring sensor has not been reported in the literature. This study proposed the HMM-based method to detect snoring using this sensor, which is attached to the neck. The data from 21 patients with OSA were gathered for training and test sets. The short-time Fourier transform and short-time energy were computed so they could be applied to HMMs. The data were classified as snoring, noise and silence according to their HMMs. As a result, the sensitivity and the positive predictivity values were 93.3% and 99.1% for snoring detection, respectively. The results demonstrated that the method produced simple, portable and user-friendly detection tools that provide an alternative to the microphone-based method. (note)
Monthly streamflow forecasting based on hidden Markov model and Gaussian Mixture Regression
Liu, Yongqi; Ye, Lei; Qin, Hui; Hong, Xiaofeng; Ye, Jiajun; Yin, Xingli
2018-06-01
Reliable streamflow forecasts can be highly valuable for water resources planning and management. In this study, we combined a hidden Markov model (HMM) and Gaussian Mixture Regression (GMR) for probabilistic monthly streamflow forecasting. The HMM is initialized using a kernelized K-medoids clustering method, and the Baum-Welch algorithm is then executed to learn the model parameters. GMR derives a conditional probability distribution for the predictand given covariate information, including the antecedent flow at a local station and two surrounding stations. The performance of HMM-GMR was verified based on the mean square error and continuous ranked probability score skill scores. The reliability of the forecasts was assessed by examining the uniformity of the probability integral transform values. The results show that HMM-GMR obtained reasonably high skill scores and the uncertainty spread was appropriate. Different HMM states were assumed to be different climate conditions, which would lead to different types of observed values. We demonstrated that the HMM-GMR approach can handle multimodal and heteroscedastic data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev
2017-05-01
Full Text Available In this article a statistical analysis of supply volumes of spare parts, components and accessories was carried out, with some persistent patterns and laws of distribution of failures of major components revealed. There are suggested evaluation models of components and assemblies reliability for the formation of order management procedures of spare parts, components and accessories for the maintenance and repair of transport and technological machines. For the purpose of identification of components operational condition there is proposed a model of hidden Markov chain which allows to classify the condition by indirect evidence, based on the collected statistics.
A first approach to Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy detection through ECG and Hidden Markov Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jimenez-Serrano, S.; Sanz Sanchez, J.; Martínez Hinarejos, C.D.; Igual Muñoz, B.; Millet Roig, J.; Zorio Grima, Z.; Castells, F.
2016-07-01
Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy (ACM) is a heritable cardiac disease causing sudden cardiac death in young people. Its clinical diagnosis includes major and minor criteria based on alterations of the electrocardiogram (ECG). The aim of this study is to evaluate Hidden Markov Models (HMM) in order to assess its possible potential of classification among subjects affected by ACM and those relatives who do not suffer the disease through 12-lead ECG recordings. Database consists of 12-lead ECG recordings from 32 patients diagnosed with ACM, and 37 relatives of those affected, but without gene mutation. Using the HTK toolkit and a hold-out strategy in order to train and evaluate a set of HMM models, we performed a grid search through the number of states and Gaussians across these HMM models. Results show that two different HMM models achieved the best balance between sensibility and specificity. The first one needed 35 states and 2 Gaussians and its performance was 0.7 and 0.8 in sensibility and specificity respectively. The second one achieved a sensibility and specificity values of 0.8 and 0.7 respectively with 50 states and 4 Gaussians. The results of this study show that HMM models can achieve an acceptable level of sensibility and specificity in the classification among ECG registers between those affected by ACM and the control group. All the above suggest that this approach could help to detect the disease in a non-invasive way, especially within the context of family screening, improving sensitivity in detection by ECG. (Author)
Protein secondary structure prediction for a single-sequence using hidden semi-Markov models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Borodovsky Mark
2006-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The accuracy of protein secondary structure prediction has been improving steadily towards the 88% estimated theoretical limit. There are two types of prediction algorithms: Single-sequence prediction algorithms imply that information about other (homologous proteins is not available, while algorithms of the second type imply that information about homologous proteins is available, and use it intensively. The single-sequence algorithms could make an important contribution to studies of proteins with no detected homologs, however the accuracy of protein secondary structure prediction from a single-sequence is not as high as when the additional evolutionary information is present. Results In this paper, we further refine and extend the hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM initially considered in the BSPSS algorithm. We introduce an improved residue dependency model by considering the patterns of statistically significant amino acid correlation at structural segment borders. We also derive models that specialize on different sections of the dependency structure and incorporate them into HSMM. In addition, we implement an iterative training method to refine estimates of HSMM parameters. The three-state-per-residue accuracy and other accuracy measures of the new method, IPSSP, are shown to be comparable or better than ones for BSPSS as well as for PSIPRED, tested under the single-sequence condition. Conclusions We have shown that new dependency models and training methods bring further improvements to single-sequence protein secondary structure prediction. The results are obtained under cross-validation conditions using a dataset with no pair of sequences having significant sequence similarity. As new sequences are added to the database it is possible to augment the dependency structure and obtain even higher accuracy. Current and future advances should contribute to the improvement of function prediction for orphan proteins inscrutable
Unifying framework for multimodal brain MRI segmentation based on Hidden Markov Chains.
Bricq, S; Collet, Ch; Armspach, J P
2008-12-01
In the frame of 3D medical imaging, accurate segmentation of multimodal brain MR images is of interest for many brain disorders. However, due to several factors such as noise, imaging artifacts, intrinsic tissue variation and partial volume effects, tissue classification remains a challenging task. In this paper, we present a unifying framework for unsupervised segmentation of multimodal brain MR images including partial volume effect, bias field correction, and information given by a probabilistic atlas. Here-proposed method takes into account neighborhood information using a Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) model. Due to the limited resolution of imaging devices, voxels may be composed of a mixture of different tissue types, this partial volume effect is included to achieve an accurate segmentation of brain tissues. Instead of assigning each voxel to a single tissue class (i.e., hard classification), we compute the relative amount of each pure tissue class in each voxel (mixture estimation). Further, a bias field estimation step is added to the proposed algorithm to correct intensity inhomogeneities. Furthermore, atlas priors were incorporated using probabilistic brain atlas containing prior expectations about the spatial localization of different tissue classes. This atlas is considered as a complementary sensor and the proposed method is extended to multimodal brain MRI without any user-tunable parameter (unsupervised algorithm). To validate this new unifying framework, we present experimental results on both synthetic and real brain images, for which the ground truth is available. Comparison with other often used techniques demonstrates the accuracy and the robustness of this new Markovian segmentation scheme.
Efficient view based 3-D object retrieval using Hidden Markov Model
Jain, Yogendra Kumar; Singh, Roshan Kumar
2013-12-01
Recent research effort has been dedicated to view based 3-D object retrieval, because of highly discriminative property of 3-D object and has multi view representation. The state-of-art method is highly depending on their own camera array setting for capturing views of 3-D object and use complex Zernike descriptor, HAC for representative view selection which limit their practical application and make it inefficient for retrieval. Therefore, an efficient and effective algorithm is required for 3-D Object Retrieval. In order to move toward a general framework for efficient 3-D object retrieval which is independent of camera array setting and avoidance of representative view selection, we propose an Efficient View Based 3-D Object Retrieval (EVBOR) method using Hidden Markov Model (HMM). In this framework, each object is represented by independent set of view, which means views are captured from any direction without any camera array restriction. In this, views are clustered (including query view) to generate the view cluster, which is then used to build the query model with HMM. In our proposed method, HMM is used in twofold: in the training (i.e. HMM estimate) and in the retrieval (i.e. HMM decode). The query model is trained by using these view clusters. The EVBOR query model is worked on the basis of query model combining with HMM. The proposed approach remove statically camera array setting for view capturing and can be apply for any 3-D object database to retrieve 3-D object efficiently and effectively. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme has shown better performance than existing methods. [Figure not available: see fulltext.
Hidden Markov modeling of frequency-following responses to Mandarin lexical tones.
Llanos, Fernando; Xie, Zilong; Chandrasekaran, Bharath
2017-11-01
The frequency-following response (FFR) is a scalp-recorded electrophysiological potential reflecting phase-locked activity from neural ensembles in the auditory system. The FFR is often used to assess the robustness of subcortical pitch processing. Due to low signal-to-noise ratio at the single-trial level, FFRs are typically averaged across thousands of stimulus repetitions. Prior work using this approach has shown that subcortical encoding of linguistically-relevant pitch patterns is modulated by long-term language experience. We examine the extent to which a machine learning approach using hidden Markov modeling (HMM) can be utilized to decode Mandarin tone-categories from scalp-record electrophysiolgical activity. We then assess the extent to which the HMM can capture biologically-relevant effects (language experience-driven plasticity). To this end, we recorded FFRs to four Mandarin tones from 14 adult native speakers of Chinese and 14 of native English. We trained a HMM to decode tone categories from the FFRs with varying size of averages. Tone categories were decoded with above-chance accuracies using HMM. The HMM derived metric (decoding accuracy) revealed a robust effect of language experience, such that FFRs from native Chinese speakers yielded greater accuracies than native English speakers. Critically, the language experience-driven plasticity was captured with average sizes significantly smaller than those used in the extant literature. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of HMM in assessing the robustness of neural pitch. Machine-learning approaches can complement extant analytical methods that capture auditory function and could reduce the number of trials needed to capture biological phenomena. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Development of a brain MRI-based hidden Markov model for dementia recognition.
Chen, Ying; Pham, Tuan D
2013-01-01
Dementia is an age-related cognitive decline which is indicated by an early degeneration of cortical and sub-cortical structures. Characterizing those morphological changes can help to understand the disease development and contribute to disease early prediction and prevention. But modeling that can best capture brain structural variability and can be valid in both disease classification and interpretation is extremely challenging. The current study aimed to establish a computational approach for modeling the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based structural complexity of the brain using the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs) for dementia recognition. Regularity dimension and semi-variogram were used to extract structural features of the brains, and vector quantization method was applied to convert extracted feature vectors to prototype vectors. The output VQ indices were then utilized to estimate parameters for HMMs. To validate its accuracy and robustness, experiments were carried out on individuals who were characterized as non-demented and mild Alzheimer's diseased. Four HMMs were constructed based on the cohort of non-demented young, middle-aged, elder and demented elder subjects separately. Classification was carried out using a data set including both non-demented and demented individuals with a wide age range. The proposed HMMs have succeeded in recognition of individual who has mild Alzheimer's disease and achieved a better classification accuracy compared to other related works using different classifiers. Results have shown the ability of the proposed modeling for recognition of early dementia. The findings from this research will allow individual classification to support the early diagnosis and prediction of dementia. By using the brain MRI-based HMMs developed in our proposed research, it will be more efficient, robust and can be easily used by clinicians as a computer-aid tool for validating imaging bio-markers for early prediction of dementia.
Mining adverse drug reactions from online healthcare forums using hidden Markov model.
Sampathkumar, Hariprasad; Chen, Xue-wen; Luo, Bo
2014-10-23
Adverse Drug Reactions are one of the leading causes of injury or death among patients undergoing medical treatments. Not all Adverse Drug Reactions are identified before a drug is made available in the market. Current post-marketing drug surveillance methods, which are based purely on voluntary spontaneous reports, are unable to provide the early indications necessary to prevent the occurrence of such injuries or fatalities. The objective of this research is to extract reports of adverse drug side-effects from messages in online healthcare forums and use them as early indicators to assist in post-marketing drug surveillance. We treat the task of extracting adverse side-effects of drugs from healthcare forum messages as a sequence labeling problem and present a Hidden Markov Model(HMM) based Text Mining system that can be used to classify a message as containing drug side-effect information and then extract the adverse side-effect mentions from it. A manually annotated dataset from http://www.medications.com is used in the training and validation of the HMM based Text Mining system. A 10-fold cross-validation on the manually annotated dataset yielded on average an F-Score of 0.76 from the HMM Classifier, in comparison to 0.575 from the Baseline classifier. Without the Plain Text Filter component as a part of the Text Processing module, the F-Score of the HMM Classifier was reduced to 0.378 on average, while absence of the HTML Filter component was found to have no impact. Reducing the Drug names dictionary size by half, on average reduced the F-Score of the HMM Classifier to 0.359, while a similar reduction to the side-effects dictionary yielded an F-Score of 0.651 on average. Adverse side-effects mined from http://www.medications.com and http://www.steadyhealth.com were found to match the Adverse Drug Reactions on the Drug Package Labels of several drugs. In addition, some novel adverse side-effects, which can be potential Adverse Drug Reactions, were also
Profile hidden Markov models for the detection of viruses within metagenomic sequence data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Skewes-Cox
Full Text Available Rapid, sensitive, and specific virus detection is an important component of clinical diagnostics. Massively parallel sequencing enables new diagnostic opportunities that complement traditional serological and PCR based techniques. While massively parallel sequencing promises the benefits of being more comprehensive and less biased than traditional approaches, it presents new analytical challenges, especially with respect to detection of pathogen sequences in metagenomic contexts. To a first approximation, the initial detection of viruses can be achieved simply through alignment of sequence reads or assembled contigs to a reference database of pathogen genomes with tools such as BLAST. However, recognition of highly divergent viral sequences is problematic, and may be further complicated by the inherently high mutation rates of some viral types, especially RNA viruses. In these cases, increased sensitivity may be achieved by leveraging position-specific information during the alignment process. Here, we constructed HMMER3-compatible profile hidden Markov models (profile HMMs from all the virally annotated proteins in RefSeq in an automated fashion using a custom-built bioinformatic pipeline. We then tested the ability of these viral profile HMMs ("vFams" to accurately classify sequences as viral or non-viral. Cross-validation experiments with full-length gene sequences showed that the vFams were able to recall 91% of left-out viral test sequences without erroneously classifying any non-viral sequences into viral protein clusters. Thorough reanalysis of previously published metagenomic datasets with a set of the best-performing vFams showed that they were more sensitive than BLAST for detecting sequences originating from more distant relatives of known viruses. To facilitate the use of the vFams for rapid detection of remote viral homologs in metagenomic data, we provide two sets of vFams, comprising more than 4,000 vFams each, in the HMMER3
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roberto Carrillo Aguilar
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Este trabajo da a conocer el sistema de desarrollo de software para el diseño y manipulación de modelos ocultos de Markov, denominado HTK. Actualmente, la técnica de modelos ocultos de Markov es la herramienta más efectiva para implementar sistemas reconocedores del habla. HTK está orientado principalmente a ese aspecto. Su arquitectura es robusta y autosuficiente. Permite: la entrada lógica y natural desde un micrófono, dispone de módulos para la conversión A/D, preprocesado y parametrización de la información, posee herramientas para definir y manipular modelos ocultos de Markov, tiene librerías para entrenamiento y manipulación de los modelos ocultos de Markov ya definidos, considera funciones para definir la gramática, y además: Una serie de herramientas adicionales permiten lograr el objetivo final de obtener una hipotética transcripción del habla (conversión voz - texto.This paper presents HTK, a software development platform for the design and management of Hidden Markov Models. Nowadays, the Hidden Markov Models technique is the more effective one to implement voice recognition systems. HTK is mainly oriented to this application. Its architecture is robust and self-sufficient. It allows a natural input from a microphone, it has modules for A/D conversion, it allows pre-processing and parameterization of information, it possesses tools to define and manage the Hidden Markov Models, libraries for training and use the already defined Hidden Markov Models. It has functions to define the grammar and it has additional tools to reach the final objective, to obtain an hypothetical transcription of the talking (voice to text translation.
Rakhimberdiev, Eldar; Winkler, David W; Bridge, Eli; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Sheldon, Daniel; Piersma, Theunis; Saveliev, Anatoly
2015-01-01
Solar archival tags (henceforth called geolocators) are tracking devices deployed on animals to reconstruct their long-distance movements on the basis of locations inferred post hoc with reference to the geographical and seasonal variations in the timing and speeds of sunrise and sunset. The increased use of geolocators has created a need for analytical tools to produce accurate and objective estimates of migration routes that are explicit in their uncertainty about the position estimates. We developed a hidden Markov chain model for the analysis of geolocator data. This model estimates tracks for animals with complex migratory behaviour by combining: (1) a shading-insensitive, template-fit physical model, (2) an uncorrelated random walk movement model that includes migratory and sedentary behavioural states, and (3) spatially explicit behavioural masks. The model is implemented in a specially developed open source R package FLightR. We used the particle filter (PF) algorithm to provide relatively fast model posterior computation. We illustrate our modelling approach with analysis of simulated data for stationary tags and of real tracks of both a tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor migrating along the east and a golden-crowned sparrow Zonotrichia atricapilla migrating along the west coast of North America. We provide a model that increases accuracy in analyses of noisy data and movements of animals with complicated migration behaviour. It provides posterior distributions for the positions of animals, their behavioural states (e.g., migrating or sedentary), and distance and direction of movement. Our approach allows biologists to estimate locations of animals with complex migratory behaviour based on raw light data. This model advances the current methods for estimating migration tracks from solar geolocation, and will benefit a fast-growing number of tracking studies with this technology.
Phillips, Joe Scutt; Patterson, Toby A; Leroy, Bruno; Pilling, Graham M; Nicol, Simon J
2015-07-01
Analysis of complex time-series data from ecological system study requires quantitative tools for objective description and classification. These tools must take into account largely ignored problems of bias in manual classification, autocorrelation, and noise. Here we describe a method using existing estimation techniques for multivariate-normal hidden Markov models (HMMs) to develop such a classification. We use high-resolution behavioral data from bio-loggers attached to free-roaming pelagic tuna as an example. Observed patterns are assumed to be generated by an unseen Markov process that switches between several multivariate-normal distributions. Our approach is assessed in two parts. The first uses simulation experiments, from which the ability of the HMM to estimate known parameter values is examined using artificial time series of data consistent with hypotheses about pelagic predator foraging ecology. The second is the application to time series of continuous vertical movement data from yellowfin and bigeye tuna taken from tuna tagging experiments. These data were compressed into summary metrics capturing the variation of patterns in diving behavior and formed into a multivariate time series used to estimate a HMM. Each observation was associated with covariate information incorporating the effect of day and night on behavioral switching. Known parameter values were well recovered by the HMMs in our simulation experiments, resulting in mean correct classification rates of 90-97%, although some variance-covariance parameters were estimated less accurately. HMMs with two distinct behavioral states were selected for every time series of real tuna data, predicting a shallow warm state, which was similar across all individuals, and a deep colder state, which was more variable. Marked diurnal behavioral switching was predicted, consistent with many previous empirical studies on tuna. HMMs provide easily interpretable models for the objective classification of
Dwyer, Michael G; Bergsland, Niels; Zivadinov, Robert
2014-04-15
SIENA and similar techniques have demonstrated the utility of performing "direct" measurements as opposed to post-hoc comparison of cross-sectional data for the measurement of whole brain (WB) atrophy over time. However, gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) atrophy are now widely recognized as important components of neurological disease progression, and are being actively evaluated as secondary endpoints in clinical trials. Direct measures of GM/WM change with advantages similar to SIENA have been lacking. We created a robust and easily-implemented method for direct longitudinal analysis of GM/WM atrophy, SIENAX multi-time-point (SIENAX-MTP). We built on the basic halfway-registration and mask composition components of SIENA to improve the raw output of FMRIB's FAST tissue segmentation tool. In addition, we created LFAST, a modified version of FAST incorporating a 4th dimension in its hidden Markov random field model in order to directly represent time. The method was validated by scan-rescan, simulation, comparison with SIENA, and two clinical effect size comparisons. All validation approaches demonstrated improved longitudinal precision with the proposed SIENAX-MTP method compared to SIENAX. For GM, simulation showed better correlation with experimental volume changes (r=0.992 vs. 0.941), scan-rescan showed lower standard deviations (3.8% vs. 8.4%), correlation with SIENA was more robust (r=0.70 vs. 0.53), and effect sizes were improved by up to 68%. Statistical power estimates indicated a potential drop of 55% in the number of subjects required to detect the same treatment effect with SIENAX-MTP vs. SIENAX. The proposed direct GM/WM method significantly improves on the standard SIENAX technique by trading a small amount of bias for a large reduction in variance, and may provide more precise data and additional statistical power in longitudinal studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Chuk, Tim; Chan, Antoni B; Hsiao, Janet H
2017-12-01
The hidden Markov model (HMM)-based approach for eye movement analysis is able to reflect individual differences in both spatial and temporal aspects of eye movements. Here we used this approach to understand the relationship between eye movements during face learning and recognition, and its association with recognition performance. We discovered holistic (i.e., mainly looking at the face center) and analytic (i.e., specifically looking at the two eyes in addition to the face center) patterns during both learning and recognition. Although for both learning and recognition, participants who adopted analytic patterns had better recognition performance than those with holistic patterns, a significant positive correlation between the likelihood of participants' patterns being classified as analytic and their recognition performance was only observed during recognition. Significantly more participants adopted holistic patterns during learning than recognition. Interestingly, about 40% of the participants used different patterns between learning and recognition, and among them 90% switched their patterns from holistic at learning to analytic at recognition. In contrast to the scan path theory, which posits that eye movements during learning have to be recapitulated during recognition for the recognition to be successful, participants who used the same or different patterns during learning and recognition did not differ in recognition performance. The similarity between their learning and recognition eye movement patterns also did not correlate with their recognition performance. These findings suggested that perceptuomotor memory elicited by eye movement patterns during learning does not play an important role in recognition. In contrast, the retrieval of diagnostic information for recognition, such as the eyes for face recognition, is a better predictor for recognition performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Yang, Sejung; Lee, Byung-Uk
2015-01-01
In certain image acquisitions processes, like in fluorescence microscopy or astronomy, only a limited number of photons can be collected due to various physical constraints. The resulting images suffer from signal dependent noise, which can be modeled as a Poisson distribution, and a low signal-to-noise ratio. However, the majority of research on noise reduction algorithms focuses on signal independent Gaussian noise. In this paper, we model noise as a combination of Poisson and Gaussian probability distributions to construct a more accurate model and adopt the contourlet transform which provides a sparse representation of the directional components in images. We also apply hidden Markov models with a framework that neatly describes the spatial and interscale dependencies which are the properties of transformation coefficients of natural images. In this paper, an effective denoising algorithm for Poisson-Gaussian noise is proposed using the contourlet transform, hidden Markov models and noise estimation in the transform domain. We supplement the algorithm by cycle spinning and Wiener filtering for further improvements. We finally show experimental results with simulations and fluorescence microscopy images which demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed approach. PMID:26352138
Zhang, Yue; Berhane, Kiros
2014-01-01
Questionnaire-based health status outcomes are often prone to misclassification. When studying the effect of risk factors on such outcomes, ignoring any potential misclassification may lead to biased effect estimates. Analytical challenges posed by these misclassified outcomes are further complicated when simultaneously exploring factors for both the misclassification and health processes in a multi-level setting. To address these challenges, we propose a fully Bayesian Mixed Hidden Markov Model (BMHMM) for handling differential misclassification in categorical outcomes in a multi-level setting. The BMHMM generalizes the traditional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) by introducing random effects into three sets of HMM parameters for joint estimation of the prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities. This formulation not only allows joint estimation of all three sets of parameters, but also accounts for cluster level heterogeneity based on a multi-level model structure. Using this novel approach, both the true health status prevalence and the transition probabilities between the health states during follow-up are modeled as functions of covariates. The observed, possibly misclassified, health states are related to the true, but unobserved, health states and covariates. Results from simulation studies are presented to validate the estimation procedure, to show the computational efficiency due to the Bayesian approach and also to illustrate the gains from the proposed method compared to existing methods that ignore outcome misclassification and cluster level heterogeneity. We apply the proposed method to examine the risk factors for both asthma transition and misclassification in the Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS). PMID:24254432
Stifter, Cynthia A; Rovine, Michael
2015-01-01
The focus of the present longitudinal study, to examine mother-infant interaction during the administration of immunizations at two and six months of age, used hidden Markov modeling, a time series approach that produces latent states to describe how mothers and infants work together to bring the infant to a soothed state. Results revealed a 4-state model for the dyadic responses to a two-month inoculation whereas a 6-state model best described the dyadic process at six months. Two of the states at two months and three of the states at six months suggested a progression from high intensity crying to no crying with parents using vestibular and auditory soothing methods. The use of feeding and/or pacifying to soothe the infant characterized one two-month state and two six-month states. These data indicate that with maturation and experience, the mother-infant dyad is becoming more organized around the soothing interaction. Using hidden Markov modeling to describe individual differences, as well as normative processes, is also presented and discussed.
Benoit, Julia S; Chan, Wenyaw; Luo, Sheng; Yeh, Hung-Wen; Doody, Rachelle
2016-04-30
Understanding the dynamic disease process is vital in early detection, diagnosis, and measuring progression. Continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) methods have been used to estimate state-change intensities but challenges arise when stages are potentially misclassified. We present an analytical likelihood approach where the hidden state is modeled as a three-state CTMC model allowing for some observed states to be possibly misclassified. Covariate effects of the hidden process and misclassification probabilities of the hidden state are estimated without information from a 'gold standard' as comparison. Parameter estimates are obtained using a modified expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and identifiability of CTMC estimation is addressed. Simulation studies and an application studying Alzheimer's disease caregiver stress-levels are presented. The method was highly sensitive to detecting true misclassification and did not falsely identify error in the absence of misclassification. In conclusion, we have developed a robust longitudinal method for analyzing categorical outcome data when classification of disease severity stage is uncertain and the purpose is to study the process' transition behavior without a gold standard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.
Yang, Grace
2013-07-01
J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.
Yuan, Y.; Meng, Y.; Chen, Y. X.; Jiang, C.; Yue, A. Z.
2018-04-01
In this study, we proposed a method to map urban encroachment onto farmland using satellite image time series (SITS) based on the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM). In this method, the farmland change process is decomposed into three hierarchical levels, i.e., the land cover level, the vegetation phenology level, and the SITS level. Then a three-level HHMM is constructed to model the multi-level semantic structure of farmland change process. Once the HHMM is established, a change from farmland to built-up could be detected by inferring the underlying state sequence that is most likely to generate the input time series. The performance of the method is evaluated on MODIS time series in Beijing. Results on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate that our method improves the change detection accuracy compared with the HMM-based method.
A Hybrid of Deep Network and Hidden Markov Model for MCI Identification with Resting-State fMRI.
Suk, Heung-Il; Lee, Seong-Whan; Shen, Dinggang
2015-10-01
In this paper, we propose a novel method for modelling functional dynamics in resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI) for Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) identification. Specifically, we devise a hybrid architecture by combining Deep Auto-Encoder (DAE) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The roles of DAE and HMM are, respectively, to discover hierarchical non-linear relations among features, by which we transform the original features into a lower dimension space, and to model dynamic characteristics inherent in rs-fMRI, i.e. , internal state changes. By building a generative model with HMMs for each class individually, we estimate the data likelihood of a test subject as MCI or normal healthy control, based on which we identify the clinical label. In our experiments, we achieved the maximal accuracy of 81.08% with the proposed method, outperforming state-of-the-art methods in the literature.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Quintero Oliveros, Anggi [Dipartimento di Georisorse e Territorio, Universita di Udine (Italy); Departamento de Ciencias de La Tierra, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Caracas (Venezuela); Carniel, Roberto [Dipartimento di Georisorse e Territorio, Universita di Udine (Italy)], E-mail: roberto.carniel@uniud.it; Tarraga, Marta [Departamento de Volcanologia, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Aspinall, Willy [Aspinall and Associates, 5 Woodside Close, Beaconsfield, Bucks (United Kingdom)
2008-08-15
The Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex situated in Tenerife Island (Canary Islands, Spain) has recently shown signs of unrest, long after its last eruptive episode at Chinyero in 1909, and the last explosive episode which happened at Montana Blanca, 2000 years ago. In this paper we study the seismicity of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex recorded between May and December 2004, in order to show the applicability of tools such as Hidden Markov Models and Bayesian Belief Networks which can be used to build a structure for evaluating the probability of given eruptive or volcano-related scenarios. The results support the existence of a bidirectional relationship between volcano-tectonic events and the background seismic noise - in particular its frequency content. This in turn suggests that the two phenomena can be related to one unique process influencing their generation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quintero Oliveros, Anggi; Carniel, Roberto; Tarraga, Marta; Aspinall, Willy
2008-01-01
The Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex situated in Tenerife Island (Canary Islands, Spain) has recently shown signs of unrest, long after its last eruptive episode at Chinyero in 1909, and the last explosive episode which happened at Montana Blanca, 2000 years ago. In this paper we study the seismicity of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex recorded between May and December 2004, in order to show the applicability of tools such as Hidden Markov Models and Bayesian Belief Networks which can be used to build a structure for evaluating the probability of given eruptive or volcano-related scenarios. The results support the existence of a bidirectional relationship between volcano-tectonic events and the background seismic noise - in particular its frequency content. This in turn suggests that the two phenomena can be related to one unique process influencing their generation
Camproux, A C; Tufféry, P
2005-08-05
Understanding and predicting protein structures depend on the complexity and the accuracy of the models used to represent them. We have recently set up a Hidden Markov Model to optimally compress protein three-dimensional conformations into a one-dimensional series of letters of a structural alphabet. Such a model learns simultaneously the shape of representative structural letters describing the local conformation and the logic of their connections, i.e. the transition matrix between the letters. Here, we move one step further and report some evidence that such a model of protein local architecture also captures some accurate amino acid features. All the letters have specific and distinct amino acid distributions. Moreover, we show that words of amino acids can have significant propensities for some letters. Perspectives point towards the prediction of the series of letters describing the structure of a protein from its amino acid sequence.
Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis.
Abner, Erin L; Charnigo, Richard J; Kryscio, Richard J
2013-10-25
A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pradeepa Yahampath
2008-03-01
Full Text Available Speech coding techniques capable of generating encoded representations which are robust against channel losses play an important role in enabling reliable voice communication over packet networks and mobile wireless systems. In this paper, we investigate the use of multiple description index assignments (MDIAs for loss-tolerant transmission of line spectral frequency (LSF coefficients, typically generated by state-of-the-art speech coders. We propose a simulated annealing-based approach for optimizing MDIAs for Markov-model-based decoders which exploit inter- and intraframe correlations in LSF coefficients to reconstruct the quantized LSFs from coded bit streams corrupted by channel losses. Experimental results are presented which compare the performance of a number of novel LSF transmission schemes. These results clearly demonstrate that Markov-model-based decoders, when used in conjunction with optimized MDIA, can yield average spectral distortion much lower than that produced by methods such as interleaving/interpolation, commonly used to combat the packet losses.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rondeau Paul
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Speech coding techniques capable of generating encoded representations which are robust against channel losses play an important role in enabling reliable voice communication over packet networks and mobile wireless systems. In this paper, we investigate the use of multiple description index assignments (MDIAs for loss-tolerant transmission of line spectral frequency (LSF coefficients, typically generated by state-of-the-art speech coders. We propose a simulated annealing-based approach for optimizing MDIAs for Markov-model-based decoders which exploit inter- and intraframe correlations in LSF coefficients to reconstruct the quantized LSFs from coded bit streams corrupted by channel losses. Experimental results are presented which compare the performance of a number of novel LSF transmission schemes. These results clearly demonstrate that Markov-model-based decoders, when used in conjunction with optimized MDIA, can yield average spectral distortion much lower than that produced by methods such as interleaving/interpolation, commonly used to combat the packet losses.
Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper
2006-01-01
Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....
Bayesian analysis for reversible Markov chains
Diaconis, P.; Rolles, S.W.W.
2006-01-01
We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from Pólya’s urn. We give closed form normalizing constants, a simple
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Pino
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The contribution of a medium-sized hydro power plant to the power grid can be either at base load or at peak load. When the latter is the most common operation mode, it increases the start and stop frequency, intensifying the hydro turbine components’ degradation, such as the guide bearings. This happens due to more frequent operation in transient states, which means being outside the service point of the machines’ nominal condition, consisting of speed, flow, and gross head. Such transient state operation increases the runner bearings’ mechanical vibration. The readings are acquired during the runner start-ups and filtered by a DC component mean value and a wavelet packet transform. The filtered series are used to estimate the relationship between the maximum orbit curve displacement and the accumulated operating hours. The estimated equation associated with the ISO 7919-5 vibration standards establishes the sojourn times of the degradation states, sufficient to obtain the transition probability distribution. Thereafter, a triangular probability function is used to determine the observation probability distribution in each state. Both matrices are inputs required by a hidden Markov model aiming to simulate the equipment deterioration process, given a sequence of maximum orbit curve displacements.
Taghvaei, Sajjad; Jahanandish, Mohammad Hasan; Kosuge, Kazuhiro
2017-01-01
Population aging of the societies requires providing the elderly with safe and dependable assistive technologies in daily life activities. Improving the fall detection algorithms can play a major role in achieving this goal. This article proposes a real-time fall prediction algorithm based on the acquired visual data of a user with walking assistive system from a depth sensor. In the lack of a coupled dynamic model of the human and the assistive walker a hybrid "system identification-machine learning" approach is used. An autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model is fitted on the time-series walking data to forecast the upcoming states, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based classifier is built on the top of the ARMA model to predict falling in the upcoming time frames. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through experiments with four subjects including an experienced physiotherapist while using a walker robot in five different falling scenarios; namely, fall forward, fall down, fall back, fall left, and fall right. The algorithm successfully predicts the fall with a rate of 84.72%.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fermín Segovia
2017-10-01
Full Text Available 18F-DMFP-PET is an emerging neuroimaging modality used to diagnose Parkinson's disease (PD that allows us to examine postsynaptic dopamine D2/3 receptors. Like other neuroimaging modalities used for PD diagnosis, most of the total intensity of 18F-DMFP-PET images is concentrated in the striatum. However, other regions can also be useful for diagnostic purposes. An appropriate delimitation of the regions of interest contained in 18F-DMFP-PET data is crucial to improve the automatic diagnosis of PD. In this manuscript we propose a novel methodology to preprocess 18F-DMFP-PET data that improves the accuracy of computer aided diagnosis systems for PD. First, the data were segmented using an algorithm based on Hidden Markov Random Field. As a result, each neuroimage was divided into 4 maps according to the intensity and the neighborhood of the voxels. The maps were then individually normalized so that the shape of their histograms could be modeled by a Gaussian distribution with equal parameters for all the neuroimages. This approach was evaluated using a dataset with neuroimaging data from 87 parkinsonian patients. After these preprocessing steps, a Support Vector Machine classifier was used to separate idiopathic and non-idiopathic PD. Data preprocessed by the proposed method provided higher accuracy results than the ones preprocessed with previous approaches.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuan Yuan
2015-11-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a novel method to continuously monitor land cover change using satellite image time series, which can extract comprehensive change information including change time, location, and “from-to” information. This method is based on a hidden Markov model (HMM trained for each land cover class. Assuming a pixel’s initial class has been obtained, likelihoods of the corresponding model are calculated on incoming time series extracted with a temporal sliding window. By observing the likelihood change over the windows, land cover change can be precisely detected from the dramatic drop of likelihood. The established HMMs are then used for identifying the land cover class after the change. As a case study, the proposed method is applied to monitoring urban encroachment onto farmland in Beijing using 10-year MODIS time series from 2001 to 2010. The performance is evaluated on a validation set for different model structures and thresholds. Compared with other change detection methods, the proposed method shows superior change detection accuracy. In addition, it is also more computationally efficient.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Emilija Kisić
2015-01-01
Full Text Available An innovative approach to condition-based maintenance of coal grinding subsystems at thermoelectric power plants is proposed in the paper. Coal mill grinding tables become worn over time and need to be replaced through time-based maintenance, after a certain number of service hours. At times such replacement is necessary earlier or later than prescribed, depending on the quality of the coal and of the grinding table itself. Considerable financial losses are incurred when the entire coal grinding subsystem is shut down and the grinding table found to not actually require replacement. The only way to determine whether replacement is necessary is to shut down and open the entire subsystem for visual inspection. The proposed algorithm supports condition-based maintenance and involves the application of T2 control charts to distinct acoustic signal parameters in the frequency domain and the construction of Hidden Markov Models whose observations are coded samples from the control charts. In the present research, the acoustic signals were collected by coal mill monitoring at the thermoelectric power plant “Kostolac” in Serbia. The proposed approach provides information about the current condition of the grinding table.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juri Taborri
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Gait-phase recognition is a necessary functionality to drive robotic rehabilitation devices for lower limbs. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs represent a viable solution, but they need subject-specific training, making data processing very time-consuming. Here, we validated an inter-subject procedure to avoid the intra-subject one in two, four and six gait-phase models in pediatric subjects. The inter-subject procedure consists in the identification of a standardized parameter set to adapt the model to measurements. We tested the inter-subject procedure both on scalar and distributed classifiers. Ten healthy children and ten hemiplegic children, each equipped with two Inertial Measurement Units placed on shank and foot, were recruited. The sagittal component of angular velocity was recorded by gyroscopes while subjects performed four walking trials on a treadmill. The goodness of classifiers was evaluated with the Receiver Operating Characteristic. The results provided a goodness from good to optimum for all examined classifiers (0 < G < 0.6, with the best performance for the distributed classifier in two-phase recognition (G = 0.02. Differences were found among gait partitioning models, while no differences were found between training procedures with the exception of the shank classifier. Our results raise the possibility of avoiding subject-specific training in HMM for gait-phase recognition and its implementation to control exoskeletons for the pediatric population.
Hu, Weiming; Tian, Guodong; Kang, Yongxin; Yuan, Chunfeng; Maybank, Stephen
2017-09-25
In this paper, a new nonparametric Bayesian model called the dual sticky hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) is proposed for mining activities from a collection of time series data such as trajectories. All the time series data are clustered. Each cluster of time series data, corresponding to a motion pattern, is modeled by an HMM. Our model postulates a set of HMMs that share a common set of states (topics in an analogy with topic models for document processing), but have unique transition distributions. For the application to motion trajectory modeling, topics correspond to motion activities. The learnt topics are clustered into atomic activities which are assigned predicates. We propose a Bayesian inference method to decompose a given trajectory into a sequence of atomic activities. On combining the learnt sources and sinks, semantic motion regions, and the learnt sequence of atomic activities, the action represented by the trajectory can be described in natural language in as automatic a way as possible. The effectiveness of our dual sticky HDP-HMM is validated on several trajectory datasets. The effectiveness of the natural language descriptions for motions is demonstrated on the vehicle trajectories extracted from a traffic scene.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ho KC
2005-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a real-time software system for landmine detection using ground-penetrating radar (GPR. The system includes an efficient and adaptive preprocessing component; a hidden Markov model- (HMM- based detector; a corrective training component; and an incremental update of the background model. The preprocessing is based on frequency-domain processing and performs ground-level alignment and background removal. The HMM detector is an improvement of a previously proposed system (baseline. It includes additional pre- and postprocessing steps to improve the time efficiency and enable real-time application. The corrective training component is used to adjust the initial model parameters to minimize the number of misclassification sequences. This component could be used offline, or online through feedback to adapt an initial model to specific sites and environments. The background update component adjusts the parameters of the background model to adapt it to each lane during testing. The proposed software system is applied to data acquired from three outdoor test sites at different geographic locations, using a state-of-the-art array GPR prototype. The first collection was used as training, and the other two (contain data from more than 1200 m of simulated dirt and gravel roads for testing. Our results indicate that, on average, the corrective training can improve the performance by about 10% for each site. For individual lanes, the performance gain can reach 50%.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Da Liu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A combined forecast with weights adaptively selected and errors calibrated by Hidden Markov model (HMM is proposed to model the day-ahead electricity price. Firstly several single models were built to forecast the electricity price separately. Then the validation errors from every individual model were transformed into two discrete sequences: an emission sequence and a state sequence to build the HMM, obtaining a transmission matrix and an emission matrix, representing the forecasting ability state of the individual models. The combining weights of the individual models were decided by the state transmission matrixes in HMM and the best predict sample ratio of each individual among all the models in the validation set. The individual forecasts were averaged to get the combining forecast with the weights obtained above. The residuals of combining forecast were calibrated by the possible error calculated by the emission matrix of HMM. A case study of day-ahead electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM, USA, suggests that the proposed method outperforms individual techniques of price forecasting, such as support vector machine (SVM, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, day-ahead modeling, and self-organized map (SOM similar days modeling.
Ito, Sosuke
2016-01-01
The transfer entropy is a well-established measure of information flow, which quantifies directed influence between two stochastic time series and has been shown to be useful in a variety fields of science. Here we introduce the transfer entropy of the backward time series called the backward transfer entropy, and show that the backward transfer entropy quantifies how far it is from dynamics to a hidden Markov model. Furthermore, we discuss physical interpretations of the backward transfer entropy in completely different settings of thermodynamics for information processing and the gambling with side information. In both settings of thermodynamics and the gambling, the backward transfer entropy characterizes a possible loss of some benefit, where the conventional transfer entropy characterizes a possible benefit. Our result implies the deep connection between thermodynamics and the gambling in the presence of information flow, and that the backward transfer entropy would be useful as a novel measure of information flow in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, biochemical sciences, economics and statistics. PMID:27833120
A hidden Markov model to assess drug-induced sleep fragmentation in the telemetered rat.
Diack, C; Ackaert, O; Ploeger, B A; van der Graaf, P H; Gurrell, R; Ivarsson, M; Fairman, D
2011-12-01
Drug-induced sleep fragmentation can cause sleep disturbances either via their intended pharmacological action or as a side effect. Examples of disturbances include excessive daytime sleepiness, insomnia and nightmares. Developing drugs without these side effects requires insight into the mechanisms leading to sleep disturbance. The characterization of the circadian sleep pattern by EEG following drug exposure has improved our understanding of these mechanisms and their translatability across species. The EEG shows frequent transitions between specific sleep states leading to multiple correlated sojourns in these states. We have developed a Markov model to consider the high correlation in the data and quantitatively compared sleep disturbance in telemetered rats induced by methylphenidate, which is known to disturb sleep, and of a new chemical entity (NCE). It was assumed that these drugs could either accelerate or decelerate the transitions between the sleep states. The difference in sleep disturbance of methylphenidate and the NCE were quantitated and different mechanisms of action on rebound sleep were identified. The estimated effect showed that both compounds induce sleep fragmentation with methylphenidate being fivefold more potent compared to the NCE.
A novel seizure detection algorithm informed by hidden Markov model event states
Baldassano, Steven; Wulsin, Drausin; Ung, Hoameng; Blevins, Tyler; Brown, Mesha-Gay; Fox, Emily; Litt, Brian
2016-06-01
Objective. Recently the FDA approved the first responsive, closed-loop intracranial device to treat epilepsy. Because these devices must respond within seconds of seizure onset and not miss events, they are tuned to have high sensitivity, leading to frequent false positive stimulations and decreased battery life. In this work, we propose a more robust seizure detection model. Approach. We use a Bayesian nonparametric Markov switching process to parse intracranial EEG (iEEG) data into distinct dynamic event states. Each event state is then modeled as a multidimensional Gaussian distribution to allow for predictive state assignment. By detecting event states highly specific for seizure onset zones, the method can identify precise regions of iEEG data associated with the transition to seizure activity, reducing false positive detections associated with interictal bursts. The seizure detection algorithm was translated to a real-time application and validated in a small pilot study using 391 days of continuous iEEG data from two dogs with naturally occurring, multifocal epilepsy. A feature-based seizure detector modeled after the NeuroPace RNS System was developed as a control. Main results. Our novel seizure detection method demonstrated an improvement in false negative rate (0/55 seizures missed versus 2/55 seizures missed) as well as a significantly reduced false positive rate (0.0012 h versus 0.058 h-1). All seizures were detected an average of 12.1 ± 6.9 s before the onset of unequivocal epileptic activity (unequivocal epileptic onset (UEO)). Significance. This algorithm represents a computationally inexpensive, individualized, real-time detection method suitable for implantable antiepileptic devices that may considerably reduce false positive rate relative to current industry standards.
Analysis of a quantum Markov chain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marbeau, J.; Gudder, S.
1990-01-01
A quantum chain is analogous to a classical stationary Markov chain except that the probability measure is replaced by a complex amplitude measure and the transition probability matrix is replaced by a transition amplitude matrix. After considering the general situation, we study a particular example of a quantum chain whose transition amplitude matrix has the form of a Dirichlet matrix. Such matrices generate a discrete analog of the usual continuum Feynman amplitude. We then compute the probability distribution for these quantum chains
Wang, Hui; Wellmann, Florian; Verweij, Elizabeth; von Hebel, Christian; van der Kruk, Jan
2017-04-01
Lateral and vertical spatial heterogeneity of subsurface properties such as soil texture and structure influences the available water and resource supply for crop growth. High-resolution mapping of subsurface structures using non-invasive geo-referenced geophysical measurements, like electromagnetic induction (EMI), enables a characterization of 3D soil structures, which have shown correlations to remote sensing information of the crop states. The benefit of EMI is that it can return 3D subsurface information, however the spatial dimensions are limited due to the labor intensive measurement procedure. Although active and passive sensors mounted on air- or space-borne platforms return 2D images, they have much larger spatial dimensions. Combining both approaches provides us with a potential pathway to extend the detailed 3D geophysical information to a larger area by using remote sensing information. In this study, we aim at extracting and providing insights into the spatial and statistical correlation of the geophysical and remote sensing observations of the soil/vegetation continuum system. To this end, two key points need to be addressed: 1) how to detect and recognize the geometric patterns (i.e., spatial heterogeneity) from multiple data sets, and 2) how to quantitatively describe the statistical correlation between remote sensing information and geophysical measurements. In the current study, the spatial domain is restricted to shallow depths up to 3 meters, and the geostatistical database contains normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from RapidEye satellite images and apparent electrical conductivities (ECa) measured from multi-receiver EMI sensors for nine depths of exploration ranging from 0-2.7 m. The integrated data sets are mapped into both the physical space (i.e. the spatial domain) and feature space (i.e. a two-dimensional space framed by the NDVI and the ECa data). Hidden Markov Random Fields (HMRF) are employed to model the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sofia Siachalou
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Vegetation monitoring and mapping based on multi-temporal imagery has recently received much attention due to the plethora of medium-high spatial resolution satellites and the improved classification accuracies attained compared to uni-temporal approaches. Efficient image processing strategies are needed to exploit the phenological information present in temporal image sequences and to limit data redundancy and computational complexity. Within this framework, we implement the theory of Hidden Markov Models in crop classification, based on the time-series analysis of phenological states, inferred by a sequence of remote sensing observations. More specifically, we model the dynamics of vegetation over an agricultural area of Greece, characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneity and small-sized fields, using RapidEye and Landsat ETM+ imagery. In addition, the classification performance of image sequences with variable spatial and temporal characteristics is evaluated and compared. The classification model considering one RapidEye and four pan-sharpened Landsat ETM+ images was found superior, resulting in a conditional kappa from 0.77 to 0.94 per class and an overall accuracy of 89.7%. The results highlight the potential of the method for operational crop mapping in Euro-Mediterranean areas and provide some hints for optimal image acquisition windows regarding major crop types in Greece.
Dean, Ben; Freeman, Robin; Kirk, Holly; Leonard, Kerry; Phillips, Richard A.; Perrins, Chris M.; Guilford, Tim
2013-01-01
The use of miniature data loggers is rapidly increasing our understanding of the movements and habitat preferences of pelagic seabirds. However, objectively interpreting behavioural information from the large volumes of highly detailed data collected by such devices can be challenging. We combined three biologging technologies—global positioning system (GPS), saltwater immersion and time–depth recorders—to build a detailed picture of the at-sea behaviour of the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus) during the breeding season. We used a hidden Markov model to explore discrete states within the combined GPS and immersion data, and found that behaviour could be organized into three principal activities representing (i) sustained direct flight, (ii) sitting on the sea surface, and (iii) foraging, comprising tortuous flight interspersed with periods of immersion. The additional logger data verified that the foraging activity corresponded well to the occurrence of diving. Applying this approach to a large tracking dataset revealed that birds from two different colonies foraged in local waters that were exclusive, but overlapped in one key area: the Irish Sea Front (ISF). We show that the allocation of time to each activity differed between colonies, with birds breeding furthest from the ISF spending the greatest proportion of time engaged in direct flight and the smallest proportion of time engaged in foraging activity. This type of analysis has considerable potential for application in future biologging studies and in other taxa. PMID:23034356
A Novel Entropy-Based Decoding Algorithm for a Generalized High-Order Discrete Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jason Chin-Tiong Chan
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The optimal state sequence of a generalized High-Order Hidden Markov Model (HHMM is tracked from a given observational sequence using the classical Viterbi algorithm. This classical algorithm is based on maximum likelihood criterion. We introduce an entropy-based Viterbi algorithm for tracking the optimal state sequence of a HHMM. The entropy of a state sequence is a useful quantity, providing a measure of the uncertainty of a HHMM. There will be no uncertainty if there is only one possible optimal state sequence for HHMM. This entropy-based decoding algorithm can be formulated in an extended or a reduction approach. We extend the entropy-based algorithm for computing the optimal state sequence that was developed from a first-order to a generalized HHMM with a single observational sequence. This extended algorithm performs the computation exponentially with respect to the order of HMM. The computational complexity of this extended algorithm is due to the growth of the model parameters. We introduce an efficient entropy-based decoding algorithm that used reduction approach, namely, entropy-based order-transformation forward algorithm (EOTFA to compute the optimal state sequence of any generalized HHMM. This EOTFA algorithm involves a transformation of a generalized high-order HMM into an equivalent first-order HMM and an entropy-based decoding algorithm is developed based on the equivalent first-order HMM. This algorithm performs the computation based on the observational sequence and it requires OTN~2 calculations, where N~ is the number of states in an equivalent first-order model and T is the length of observational sequence.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hogden, J.
1996-11-05
The goal of the proposed research is to test a statistical model of speech recognition that incorporates the knowledge that speech is produced by relatively slow motions of the tongue, lips, and other speech articulators. This model is called Maximum Likelihood Continuity Mapping (Malcom). Many speech researchers believe that by using constraints imposed by articulator motions, we can improve or replace the current hidden Markov model based speech recognition algorithms. Unfortunately, previous efforts to incorporate information about articulation into speech recognition algorithms have suffered because (1) slight inaccuracies in our knowledge or the formulation of our knowledge about articulation may decrease recognition performance, (2) small changes in the assumptions underlying models of speech production can lead to large changes in the speech derived from the models, and (3) collecting measurements of human articulator positions in sufficient quantity for training a speech recognition algorithm is still impractical. The most interesting (and in fact, unique) quality of Malcom is that, even though Malcom makes use of a mapping between acoustics and articulation, Malcom can be trained to recognize speech using only acoustic data. By learning the mapping between acoustics and articulation using only acoustic data, Malcom avoids the difficulties involved in collecting articulator position measurements and does not require an articulatory synthesizer model to estimate the mapping between vocal tract shapes and speech acoustics. Preliminary experiments that demonstrate that Malcom can learn the mapping between acoustics and articulation are discussed. Potential applications of Malcom aside from speech recognition are also discussed. Finally, specific deliverables resulting from the proposed research are described.
Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games
Volchenkov, D.; Dawin, J. R.
2012-07-01
A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.
IEEE 802.11e (EDCA analysis in the presence of hidden stations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xijie Liu
2011-07-01
Full Text Available The key contribution of this paper is the combined analytical analysis of both saturated and non-saturated throughput of IEEE 802.11e networks in the presence of hidden stations. This approach is an extension to earlier works by other authors which provided Markov chain analysis to the IEEE 802.11 family under various assumptions. Our approach also modifies earlier expressions for the probability that a station transmits a packet in a vulnerable period. The numerical results provide the impact of the access categories on the channel throughput. Various throughput results under different mechanisms are presented.
Infinite hidden conditional random fields for human behavior analysis.
Bousmalis, Konstantinos; Zafeiriou, Stefanos; Morency, Louis-Philippe; Pantic, Maja
2013-01-01
Hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs) are discriminative latent variable models that have been shown to successfully learn the hidden structure of a given classification problem (provided an appropriate validation of the number of hidden states). In this brief, we present the infinite HCRF (iHCRF), which is a nonparametric model based on hierarchical Dirichlet processes and is capable of automatically learning the optimal number of hidden states for a classification task. We show how we learn the model hyperparameters with an effective Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling technique, and we explain the process that underlines our iHCRF model with the Restaurant Franchise Rating Agencies analogy. We show that the iHCRF is able to converge to a correct number of represented hidden states, and outperforms the best finite HCRFs--chosen via cross-validation--for the difficult tasks of recognizing instances of agreement, disagreement, and pain. Moreover, the iHCRF manages to achieve this performance in significantly less total training, validation, and testing time.
An Application of Graph Theory in Markov Chains Reliability Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pavel Skalny
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The paper presents reliability analysis which was realized for an industrial company. The aim of the paper is to present the usage of discrete time Markov chains and the flow in network approach. Discrete Markov chains a well-known method of stochastic modelling describes the issue. The method is suitable for many systems occurring in practice where we can easily distinguish various amount of states. Markov chains are used to describe transitions between the states of the process. The industrial process is described as a graph network. The maximal flow in the network corresponds to the production. The Ford-Fulkerson algorithm is used to quantify the production for each state. The combination of both methods are utilized to quantify the expected value of the amount of manufactured products for the given time period.
Markov chain analysis of single spin flip Ising simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hennecke, M.
1997-01-01
The Markov processes defined by random and loop-based schemes for single spin flip attempts in Monte Carlo simulations of the 2D Ising model are investigated, by explicitly constructing their transition matrices. Their analysis reveals that loops over all lattice sites using a Metropolis-type single spin flip probability often do not define ergodic Markov chains, and have distorted dynamical properties even if they are ergodic. The transition matrices also enable a comparison of the dynamics of random versus loop spin selection and Glauber versus Metropolis probabilities
Speech Silicon: An FPGA Architecture for Real-Time Hidden Markov-Model-Based Speech Recognition
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Schuster Jeffrey
2006-01-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the design of an FPGA-based system-on-a-chip capable of performing continuous speech recognition on medium sized vocabularies in real time. Through the creation of three dedicated pipelines, one for each of the major operations in the system, we were able to maximize the throughput of the system while simultaneously minimizing the number of pipeline stalls in the system. Further, by implementing a token-passing scheme between the later stages of the system, the complexity of the control was greatly reduced and the amount of active data present in the system at any time was minimized. Additionally, through in-depth analysis of the SPHINX 3 large vocabulary continuous speech recognition engine, we were able to design models that could be efficiently benchmarked against a known software platform. These results, combined with the ability to reprogram the system for different recognition tasks, serve to create a system capable of performing real-time speech recognition in a vast array of environments.
Speech Silicon: An FPGA Architecture for Real-Time Hidden Markov-Model-Based Speech Recognition
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alex K. Jones
2006-11-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the design of an FPGA-based system-on-a-chip capable of performing continuous speech recognition on medium sized vocabularies in real time. Through the creation of three dedicated pipelines, one for each of the major operations in the system, we were able to maximize the throughput of the system while simultaneously minimizing the number of pipeline stalls in the system. Further, by implementing a token-passing scheme between the later stages of the system, the complexity of the control was greatly reduced and the amount of active data present in the system at any time was minimized. Additionally, through in-depth analysis of the SPHINX 3 large vocabulary continuous speech recognition engine, we were able to design models that could be efficiently benchmarked against a known software platform. These results, combined with the ability to reprogram the system for different recognition tasks, serve to create a system capable of performing real-time speech recognition in a vast array of environments.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Persson Bengt
2010-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The Medium-chain Dehydrogenases/Reductases (MDR form a protein superfamily whose size and complexity defeats traditional means of subclassification; it currently has over 15000 members in the databases, the pairwise sequence identity is typically around 25%, there are members from all kingdoms of life, the chain-lengths vary as does the oligomericity, and the members are partaking in a multitude of biological processes. There are profile hidden Markov models (HMMs available for detecting MDR superfamily members, but none for determining which MDR family each protein belongs to. The current torrential influx of new sequence data enables elucidation of more and more protein families, and at an increasingly fine granularity. However, gathering good quality training data usually requires manual attention by experts and has therefore been the rate limiting step for expanding the number of available models. Results We have developed an automated algorithm for HMM refinement that produces stable and reliable models for protein families. This algorithm uses relationships found in data to generate confident seed sets. Using this algorithm we have produced HMMs for 86 distinct MDR families and 34 of their subfamilies which can be used in automated annotation of new sequences. We find that MDR forms with 2 Zn2+ ions in general are dehydrogenases, while MDR forms with no Zn2+ in general are reductases. Furthermore, in Bacteria MDRs without Zn2+ are more frequent than those with Zn2+, while the opposite is true for eukaryotic MDRs, indicating that Zn2+ has been recruited into the MDR superfamily after the initial life kingdom separations. We have also developed a web site http://mdr-enzymes.org that provides textual and numeric search against various characterised MDR family properties, as well as sequence scan functions for reliable classification of novel MDR sequences. Conclusions Our method of refinement can be readily applied to
failure analysis of a uav flight control system using markov analysis
African Journals Online (AJOL)
eobe
2016-01-01
Jan 1, 2016 ... Tree Analysis (FTA), Dependence Diagram Analysis. (DDA) and Markov Analysis (MA) are the most widely-used methods of probabilistic safety and reliability analysis for airborne system [1]. Fault trees analysis is a backward failure searching ..... [4] Christopher Dabrowski and Fern Hunt Markov Chain.
A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain
Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe
2012-01-01
If ($C_n$) a Markov chain on a discrete state space $S$, a Markov chain ($C_n, M_n$) on the product space $S \\times S$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain behaves like the original Markov chain and the second component changes only when both
Arakawa, Toshiya; Tanave, Akira; Ikeuchi, Shiho; Takahashi, Aki; Kakihara, Satoshi; Kimura, Shingo; Sugimoto, Hiroki; Asada, Nobuhiko; Shiroishi, Toshihiko; Tomihara, Kazuya; Tsuchiya, Takashi; Koide, Tsuyoshi
2014-08-30
Owing to their complex nature, social interaction tests normally require the observation of video data by a human researcher, and thus are difficult to use in large-scale studies. We previously established a statistical method, a hidden Markov model (HMM), which enables the differentiation of two social states ("interaction" and "indifference"), and three social states ("sniffing", "following", and "indifference"), automatically in silico. Here, we developed freeware called DuoMouse for the rapid evaluation of social interaction behavior. This software incorporates five steps: (1) settings, (2) video recording, (3) tracking from the video data, (4) HMM analysis, and (5) visualization of the results. Using DuoMouse, we mapped a genetic locus related to social interaction. We previously reported that a consomic strain, B6-Chr6C(MSM), with its chromosome 6 substituted for one from MSM/Ms, showed more social interaction than C57BL/6 (B6). We made four subconsomic strains, C3, C5, C6, and C7, each of which has a shorter segment of chromosome 6 derived from B6-Chr6C, and conducted social interaction tests on these strains. DuoMouse indicated that C6, but not C3, C5, and C7, showed higher interaction, sniffing, and following than B6, specifically in males. The data obtained by human observation showed high concordance to those from DuoMouse. The results indicated that the MSM-derived chromosomal region present in C6-but not in C3, C5, and C7-associated with increased social behavior. This method to analyze social interaction will aid primary screening for difference in social behavior in mice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Markov chain model for demersal fish catch analysis in Indonesia
Firdaniza; Gusriani, N.
2018-03-01
As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has considerable potential fishery resources. One of the fish resources that has high economic value is demersal fish. Demersal fish is a fish with a habitat in the muddy seabed. Demersal fish scattered throughout the Indonesian seas. Demersal fish production in each Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area (FMA) varies each year. In this paper we have discussed the Markov chain model for demersal fish yield analysis throughout all Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area. Data of demersal fish catch in every FMA in 2005-2014 was obtained from Directorate of Capture Fisheries. From this data a transition probability matrix is determined by the number of transitions from the catch that lie below the median or above the median. The Markov chain model of demersal fish catch data was an ergodic Markov chain model, so that the limiting probability of the Markov chain model can be determined. The predictive value of demersal fishing yields was obtained by calculating the combination of limiting probability with average catch results below the median and above the median. The results showed that for 2018 and long-term demersal fishing results in most of FMA were below the median value.
Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buslik, A.J.
1985-01-01
This paper presents Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems. Markov models are useful in treating dependencies between components. The present paper shows how the adjoint Monte Carlo method for the continuous time Markov process can be derived from the method for the discrete-time Markov process by a limiting process. The straightforward extensions to the treatment of mean unavailability (over a time interval) are given. System unavailabilities can also be estimated; this is done by making the system failed states absorbing, and not permitting repair from them. A forward Monte Carlo method is presented in which the weighting functions are related to the adjoint function. In particular, if the exact adjoint function is known then weighting factors can be constructed such that the exact answer can be obtained with a single Monte Carlo trial. Of course, if the exact adjoint function is known, there is no need to perform the Monte Carlo calculation. However, the formulation is useful since it gives insight into choices of the weight factors which will reduce the variance of the estimator
A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain
Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe
Motivated by an original on-line page-ranking algorithm, starting from an arbitrary Markov chain $(C_n)$ on a discrete state space ${\\cal S}$, a Markov chain $(C_n,M_n)$ on the product space ${\\cal S}^2$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cédric Beaulac
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We propose to use a supervised machine learning technique to track the location of a mobile agent in real time. Hidden Markov Models are used to build artificial intelligence that estimates the unknown position of a mobile target moving in a defined environment. This narrow artificial intelligence performs two distinct tasks. First, it provides real-time estimation of the mobile agent’s position using the forward algorithm. Second, it uses the Baum–Welch algorithm as a statistical learning tool to gain knowledge of the mobile target. Finally, an experimental environment is proposed, namely, a video game that we use to test our artificial intelligence. We present statistical and graphical results to illustrate the efficiency of our method.
Discovering Hidden Controlling Parameters using Data Analytics and Dimensional Analysis
Del Rosario, Zachary; Lee, Minyong; Iaccarino, Gianluca
2017-11-01
Dimensional Analysis is a powerful tool, one which takes a priori information and produces important simplifications. However, if this a priori information - the list of relevant parameters - is missing a relevant quantity, then the conclusions from Dimensional Analysis will be incorrect. In this work, we present novel conclusions in Dimensional Analysis, which provide a means to detect this failure mode of missing or hidden parameters. These results are based on a restated form of the Buckingham Pi theorem that reveals a ridge function structure underlying all dimensionless physical laws. We leverage this structure by constructing a hypothesis test based on sufficient dimension reduction, allowing for an experimental data-driven detection of hidden parameters. Both theory and examples will be presented, using classical turbulent pipe flow as the working example. Keywords: experimental techniques, dimensional analysis, lurking variables, hidden parameters, buckingham pi, data analysis. First author supported by the NSF GRFP under Grant Number DGE-114747.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirschmann, H.
1983-06-01
The consequences of the basic assumptions of the semi-Markov process as defined from a homogeneous renewal process with a stationary Markov condition are reviewed. The notion of the semi-Markov process is generalized by its redefinition from a nonstationary Markov renewal process. For both the nongeneralized and the generalized case a representation of the first order conditional state probabilities is derived in terms of the transition probabilities of the Markov renewal process. Some useful calculation rules (regeneration rules) are derived for the conditional state probabilities of the semi-Markov process. Compared to the semi-Markov process in its usual definition the generalized process allows the analysis of a larger class of systems. For instance systems with arbitrarily distributed lifetimes of their components can be described. There is also a chance to describe systems which are modified during time by forces or manipulations from outside. (Auth.)
LISA data analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cornish, Neil J.; Crowder, Jeff
2005-01-01
The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to simultaneously detect many thousands of low-frequency gravitational wave signals. This presents a data analysis challenge that is very different to the one encountered in ground based gravitational wave astronomy. LISA data analysis requires the identification of individual signals from a data stream containing an unknown number of overlapping signals. Because of the signal overlaps, a global fit to all the signals has to be performed in order to avoid biasing the solution. However, performing such a global fit requires the exploration of an enormous parameter space with a dimension upwards of 50 000. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods offer a very promising solution to the LISA data analysis problem. MCMC algorithms are able to efficiently explore large parameter spaces, simultaneously providing parameter estimates, error analysis, and even model selection. Here we present the first application of MCMC methods to simulated LISA data and demonstrate the great potential of the MCMC approach. Our implementation uses a generalized F-statistic to evaluate the likelihoods, and simulated annealing to speed convergence of the Markov chains. As a final step we supercool the chains to extract maximum likelihood estimates, and estimates of the Bayes factors for competing models. We find that the MCMC approach is able to correctly identify the number of signals present, extract the source parameters, and return error estimates consistent with Fisher information matrix predictions
Markov analysis of different standby computer based systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Srinivas, G.; Guptan, Rajee; Mohan, Nalini; Ghadge, S.G.; Bajaj, S.S.
2006-01-01
As against the conventional triplicated systems of hardware and the generation of control signals for the actuator elements by means of redundant hardwired median circuits, employed in the early Indian PHWR's, a new approach of generating control signals based on software by a redundant system of computers is introduced in the advanced/current generation of Indian PHWR's. Reliability is increased by fault diagnostics and automatic switch over of all the loads to one computer in case of total failure of the other computer. Independent processing by a redundant CPU in each system enables inter-comparison to quickly identify system failure, in addition to the other self-diagnostic features provided. Combinatorial models such as reliability block diagrams and fault trees are frequently used to predict the reliability, maintainability and safety of complex systems. Unfortunately, these methods cannot accurately model dynamic system behavior; Because of its unique ability to handle dynamic cases, Markov analysis can be a powerful tool in the reliability maintainability and safety (RMS) analyses of dynamic systems. A Markov model breaks the system configuration into a number of states. Each of these states is connected to all other states by transition rates. It then utilizes transition matrices to evaluate the reliability and safety of the systems, either through matrix manipulation or other analytical solution methods, such as Laplace transforms. Thus, Markov analysis is a powerful reliability, maintainability and safety analysis tool. It allows the analyst to model complex, dynamic, highly distributed, fault tolerant systems that would otherwise be very difficult to model using classical techniques like the Fault tree method. The Dual Processor Hot Standby Process Control System (DPHS-PCS) and the Computerized Channel Temperature Monitoring System (CCTM) are typical examples of hot standby systems in the Indian PHWR's. While such systems currently in use in Indian PHWR
Logics and Models for Stochastic Analysis Beyond Markov Chains
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zeng, Kebin
, because of the generality of ME distributions, we have to leave the world of Markov chains. To support ME distributions with multiple exits, we introduce a multi-exits ME distribution together with a process algebra MEME to express the systems having the semantics as Markov renewal processes with ME...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmad Jalal
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Increase in number of elderly people who are living independently needs especial care in the form of healthcare monitoring systems. Recent advancements in depth video technologies have made human activity recognition (HAR realizable for elderly healthcare applications. In this paper, a depth video-based novel method for HAR is presented using robust multi-features and embedded Hidden Markov Models (HMMs to recognize daily life activities of elderly people living alone in indoor environment such as smart homes. In the proposed HAR framework, initially, depth maps are analyzed by temporal motion identification method to segment human silhouettes from noisy background and compute depth silhouette area for each activity to track human movements in a scene. Several representative features, including invariant, multi-view differentiation and spatiotemporal body joints features were fused together to explore gradient orientation change, intensity differentiation, temporal variation and local motion of specific body parts. Then, these features are processed by the dynamics of their respective class and learned, modeled, trained and recognized with specific embedded HMM having active feature values. Furthermore, we construct a new online human activity dataset by a depth sensor to evaluate the proposed features. Our experiments on three depth datasets demonstrated that the proposed multi-features are efficient and robust over the state of the art features for human action and activity recognition.
A hidden Ising model for ChIP-chip data analysis
Mo, Q.
2010-01-28
Motivation: Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) coupled with tiling microarray (chip) experiments have been used in a wide range of biological studies such as identification of transcription factor binding sites and investigation of DNA methylation and histone modification. Hidden Markov models are widely used to model the spatial dependency of ChIP-chip data. However, parameter estimation for these models is typically either heuristic or suboptimal, leading to inconsistencies in their applications. To overcome this limitation and to develop an efficient software, we propose a hidden ferromagnetic Ising model for ChIP-chip data analysis. Results: We have developed a simple, but powerful Bayesian hierarchical model for ChIP-chip data via a hidden Ising model. Metropolis within Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to simulate from the posterior distribution of the model parameters. The proposed model naturally incorporates the spatial dependency of the data, and can be used to analyze data with various genomic resolutions and sample sizes. We illustrate the method using three publicly available datasets and various simulated datasets, and compare it with three closely related methods, namely TileMap HMM, tileHMM and BAC. We find that our method performs as well as TileMap HMM and BAC for the high-resolution data from Affymetrix platform, but significantly outperforms the other three methods for the low-resolution data from Agilent platform. Compared with the BAC method which also involves MCMC simulations, our method is computationally much more efficient. Availability: A software called iChip is freely available at http://www.bioconductor.org/. Contact: moq@mskcc.org. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.
failure analysis of a uav flight control system using markov analysis
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Failure analysis of a flight control system proposed for Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was studied using Markov Analysis (MA). It was perceived that understanding of the number of failure states and the probability of being in those state are of paramount importance in order to ...
Corbett-Detig, Russell; Nielsen, Rasmus
2017-01-01
Admixture-the mixing of genomes from divergent populations-is increasingly appreciated as a central process in evolution. To characterize and quantify patterns of admixture across the genome, a number of methods have been developed for local ancestry inference. However, existing approaches have a number of shortcomings. First, all local ancestry inference methods require some prior assumption about the expected ancestry tract lengths. Second, existing methods generally require genotypes, which is not feasible to obtain for many next-generation sequencing projects. Third, many methods assume samples are diploid, however a wide variety of sequencing applications will fail to meet this assumption. To address these issues, we introduce a novel hidden Markov model for estimating local ancestry that models the read pileup data, rather than genotypes, is generalized to arbitrary ploidy, and can estimate the time since admixture during local ancestry inference. We demonstrate that our method can simultaneously estimate the time since admixture and local ancestry with good accuracy, and that it performs well on samples of high ploidy-i.e. 100 or more chromosomes. As this method is very general, we expect it will be useful for local ancestry inference in a wider variety of populations than what previously has been possible. We then applied our method to pooled sequencing data derived from populations of Drosophila melanogaster on an ancestry cline on the east coast of North America. We find that regions of local recombination rates are negatively correlated with the proportion of African ancestry, suggesting that selection against foreign ancestry is the least efficient in low recombination regions. Finally we show that clinal outlier loci are enriched for genes associated with gene regulatory functions, consistent with a role of regulatory evolution in ecological adaptation of admixed D. melanogaster populations. Our results illustrate the potential of local ancestry
Un calcul de Viterbi pour un Modèle de Markov Caché Contraint
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petit, Matthieu; Christiansen, Henning
2009-01-01
A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process with hidden states. This model has been widely used in speech recognition and biological sequence analysis. Viterbi algorithm has been proposed to compute the most probable value....... Several constraint techniques are used to reduce the search of the most probable value of hidden states of a constrained HMM. An implementation based on PRISM, a logic programming language for statistical modeling, is presented....
Slator, Paddy J.; Cairo, Christopher W.; Burroughs, Nigel J.
2015-01-01
We develop a Bayesian analysis framework to detect heterogeneity in the diffusive behaviour of single particle trajectories on cells, implementing model selection to classify trajectories as either consistent with Brownian motion or with a two-state (diffusion coefficient) switching model. The incorporation of localisation accuracy is essential, as otherwise false detection of switching within a trajectory was observed and diffusion coefficient estimates were inflated. Since our analysis is on a single trajectory basis, we are able to examine heterogeneity between trajectories in a quantitative manner. Applying our method to the lymphocyte function-associated antigen 1 (LFA-1) receptor tagged with latex beads (4 s trajectories at 1000 frames s−1), both intra- and inter-trajectory heterogeneity were detected; 12–26% of trajectories display clear switching between diffusive states dependent on condition, whilst the inter-trajectory variability is highly structured with the diffusion coefficients being related by D 1 = 0.68D 0 − 1.5 × 104 nm2 s−1, suggestive that on these time scales we are detecting switching due to a single process. Further, the inter-trajectory variability of the diffusion coefficient estimates (1.6 × 102 − 2.6 × 105 nm2 s−1) is very much larger than the measurement uncertainty within trajectories, suggesting that LFA-1 aggregation and cytoskeletal interactions are significantly affecting mobility, whilst the timescales of these processes are distinctly different giving rise to inter- and intra-trajectory variability. There is also an ‘immobile’ state (defined as D models within membranes incorporating aggregation, binding to the cytoskeleton, or traversing membrane microdomains. PMID:26473352
Analysis and design of Markov jump systems with complex transition probabilities
Zhang, Lixian; Shi, Peng; Zhu, Yanzheng
2016-01-01
The book addresses the control issues such as stability analysis, control synthesis and filter design of Markov jump systems with the above three types of TPs, and thus is mainly divided into three parts. Part I studies the Markov jump systems with partially unknown TPs. Different methodologies with different conservatism for the basic stability and stabilization problems are developed and compared. Then the problems of state estimation, the control of systems with time-varying delays, the case involved with both partially unknown TPs and uncertain TPs in a composite way are also tackled. Part II deals with the Markov jump systems with piecewise homogeneous TPs. Methodologies that can effectively handle control problems in the scenario are developed, including the one coping with the asynchronous switching phenomenon between the currently activated system mode and the controller/filter to be designed. Part III focuses on the Markov jump systems with memory TPs. The concept of σ-mean square stability is propo...
Song, Youngseok; Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Wu, Mengfei; Liu, Yu-Ying; Lucy, Katie A; Lavinsky, Fabio; Liu, Mengling; Wollstein, Gadi; Schuman, Joel S
2018-03-20
Previously, we introduced a state-based 2-dimensional continuous-time hidden Markov model (2D CT HMM) to model the pattern of detected glaucoma changes using structural and functional information simultaneously. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the detected glaucoma change prediction performance of the model in a real clinical setting using a retrospective longitudinal dataset. Longitudinal, retrospective study. One hundred thirty-four eyes from 134 participants diagnosed with glaucoma or as glaucoma suspects (average follow-up, 4.4±1.2 years; average number of visits, 7.1±1.8). A 2D CT HMM model was trained using OCT (Cirrus HD-OCT; Zeiss, Dublin, CA) average circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (cRNFL) thickness and visual field index (VFI) or mean deviation (MD; Humphrey Field Analyzer; Zeiss). The model was trained using a subset of the data (107 of 134 eyes [80%]) including all visits except for the last visit, which was used to test the prediction performance (training set). Additionally, the remaining 27 eyes were used for secondary performance testing as an independent group (validation set). The 2D CT HMM predicts 1 of 4 possible detected state changes based on 1 input state. Prediction accuracy was assessed as the percentage of correct prediction against the patient's actual recorded state. In addition, deviations of the predicted long-term detected change paths from the actual detected change paths were measured. Baseline mean ± standard deviation age was 61.9±11.4 years, VFI was 90.7±17.4, MD was -3.50±6.04 dB, and cRNFL thickness was 74.9±12.2 μm. The accuracy of detected glaucoma change prediction using the training set was comparable with the validation set (57.0% and 68.0%, respectively). Prediction deviation from the actual detected change path showed stability throughout patient follow-up. The 2D CT HMM demonstrated promising prediction performance in detecting glaucoma change performance in a simulated clinical setting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nandi Soumyadeep
2007-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile Hidden Markov Models (HMM are statistical representations of protein families derived from patterns of sequence conservation in multiple alignments and have been used in identifying remote homologues with considerable success. These conservation patterns arise from fold specific signals, shared across multiple families, and function specific signals unique to the families. The availability of sequences pre-classified according to their function permits the use of negative training sequences to improve the specificity of the HMM, both by optimizing the threshold cutoff and by modifying emission probabilities to minimize the influence of fold-specific signals. A protocol to generate family specific HMMs is described that first constructs a profile HMM from an alignment of the family's sequences and then uses this model to identify sequences belonging to other classes that score above the default threshold (false positives. Ten-fold cross validation is used to optimise the discrimination threshold score for the model. The advent of fast multiple alignment methods enables the use of the profile alignments to align the true and false positive sequences, and the resulting alignments are used to modify the emission probabilities in the original model. Results The protocol, called HMM-ModE, was validated on a set of sequences belonging to six sub-families of the AGC family of kinases. These sequences have an average sequence similarity of 63% among the group though each sub-group has a different substrate specificity. The optimisation of discrimination threshold, by using negative sequences scored against the model improves specificity in test cases from an average of 21% to 98%. Further discrimination by the HMM after modifying model probabilities using negative training sequences is provided in a few cases, the average specificity rising to 99%. Similar improvements were obtained with a sample of G-Protein coupled receptors
Analysis of changing hidden energy flow in Vietnam
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet; Ishihara, Keiichi N.
2006-01-01
The energy consumption in production process is changing especially in developing countries by substituting technology. Input-output analysis for energy flows has been developing and is one of the best solutions for investigating macroscopic exchanges of both economy and energy. Since each element in the Leontief inverse contains both direct and indirect effects of any change in final demand, to separate those direct and indirect effects, the power series expansion is available. In this work, the changes of embodied energy intensity in Vietnam from 1996 to 2000 were analyzed using the structural decomposition and its power series expansion. By illustrating the change of causal relationship between direct energy consumption and embodied energy consumption, the change of hidden energy flow, which indicates how the changing embodied energy builds up the change of direct energy consumption in every sector, can be seen. In the case study, the rice processing sector, which is one of the important food processing sectors in Vietnam, is focused. By drawing a diagrammatic map for the change of hidden energy flow, it is clarified that in the case of raising embodied energy intensity, cultivation sector and trade and repaired service sector are the main contributors, and, on the contrary, in the case of reducing embodied energy intensity, paper pulp sector is the main contributor
Detection of hidden explosives by fast neutron activation analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Xinnian; Guo Junpeng; Luo Wenyun; Wang Chuanshan; Fang Xiaoming; Yu Tailiu
2008-01-01
The paper describes the method and principle for detection of hidden explosive by fast neutron activation analysis (FNAA). The method of detection of explosives by FNAA has the specific properties of simple determination equipments, high reliability, and low detecting cost, and would be beneficial to the applicability and popularization in the field of protecting and securing nation. The contents of nitrogen and oxygen in four explosives, more then ten common materials and TNT samples covered with soil, were measured by FNAA. 14 MeV fast neutrons were generated from (d, t) reaction with a 400 kV Cockcroft Walton type accelerator. The two-dimension distributions for nitro- gen and oxygen counting rates per unit mass of determined matters were obtained, and the characteristic area of explosives and non-explosives can be defined. By computer aided pattern recognition, the samples were identified with low false alarm or omission rates. The Monte-Carlo simulation indicates that there is no any radiation at 15 m apart from neutron source and is safe for irradiation after 1 h. It is suggested that FNAA may be potential in remote controlling for detection hidden explosive system with multi-probe large array. (authors)
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.
2008-01-01
The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safety, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)
2008-07-01
The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)
Mixed Vehicle Flow At Signalized Intersection: Markov Chain Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gertsbakh Ilya B.
2015-09-01
Full Text Available We assume that a Poisson flow of vehicles arrives at isolated signalized intersection, and each vehicle, independently of others, represents a random number X of passenger car units (PCU’s. We analyze numerically the stationary distribution of the queue process {Zn}, where Zn is the number of PCU’s in a queue at the beginning of the n-th red phase, n → ∞. We approximate the number Yn of PCU’s arriving during one red-green cycle by a two-parameter Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD. The well-known fact is that {Zn} follow an infinite-state Markov chain. We approximate its stationary distribution using a finite-state Markov chain. We show numerically that there is a strong dependence of the mean queue length E[Zn] in equilibrium on the input distribution of Yn and, in particular, on the ”over dispersion” parameter γ= Var[Yn]/E[Yn]. For Poisson input, γ = 1. γ > 1 indicates presence of heavy-tailed input. In reality it means that a relatively large ”portion” of PCU’s, considerably exceeding the average, may arrive with high probability during one red-green cycle. Empirical formulas are presented for an accurate estimation of mean queue length as a function of load and g of the input flow. Using the Markov chain technique, we analyze the mean ”virtual” delay time for a car which always arrives at the beginning of the red phase.
ANALYSIS OF MARKOV NETWORK WITH INCOMES, POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE MESSAGES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. V. Naumenko
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Markov queuing network with income in transient regime is considered. It has positive and negative messages, which can be used in forecasting income of information and telecommunication systems and networks affected by viruses. Investigations are carried out in the cases when incomes from transitions between network states are deterministic functions dependent on states, or they are random variables with given mean values. In the last case it is assumed that all network systems operate in a high load mode. An example is given.
El Yazid Boudaren, Mohamed; Monfrini, Emmanuel; Pieczynski, Wojciech; Aïssani, Amar
2014-11-01
Hidden Markov chains have been shown to be inadequate for data modeling under some complex conditions. In this work, we address the problem of statistical modeling of phenomena involving two heterogeneous system states. Such phenomena may arise in biology or communications, among other fields. Namely, we consider that a sequence of meaningful words is to be searched within a whole observation that also contains arbitrary one-by-one symbols. Moreover, a word may be interrupted at some site to be carried on later. Applying plain hidden Markov chains to such data, while ignoring their specificity, yields unsatisfactory results. The Phasic triplet Markov chain, proposed in this paper, overcomes this difficulty by means of an auxiliary underlying process in accordance with the triplet Markov chains theory. Related Bayesian restoration techniques and parameters estimation procedures according to the new model are then described. Finally, to assess the performance of the proposed model against the conventional hidden Markov chain model, experiments are conducted on synthetic and real data.
Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.
2014-01-01
The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading
A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Confirmatory Item Factor Analysis
Edwards, Michael C.
2010-01-01
Item factor analysis has a rich tradition in both the structural equation modeling and item response theory frameworks. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a novel combination of various Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation routines to estimate parameters of a wide variety of confirmatory item factor analysis models. Further, I show…
Data Analysis Recipes: Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Hogg, David W.; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel
2018-05-01
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data. In this primarily pedagogical contribution, we give a brief overview of the most basic MCMC method and some practical advice for the use of MCMC in real inference problems. We give advice on method choice, tuning for performance, methods for initialization, tests of convergence, troubleshooting, and use of the chain output to produce or report parameter estimates with associated uncertainties. We argue that autocorrelation time is the most important test for convergence, as it directly connects to the uncertainty on the sampling estimate of any quantity of interest. We emphasize that sampling is a method for doing integrals; this guides our thinking about how MCMC output is best used. .
Novel migration operators of biogeography-based optimization and Markov analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guo, Weian; Wang, Lei; Si, Chenyong
2016-01-01
, and therefore, the algorithm’s performance worsens. In this paper, we propose three novel migration operators to enhance the exploration ability of BBO. To present a mathematical proof, Markov analysis is conducted to confirm the advantages of the proposed migration operators over existing ones. In addition...
Spectral analysis and markov switching model of Indonesia business cycle
Fajar, Muhammad; Darwis, Sutawanir; Darmawan, Gumgum
2017-03-01
This study aims to investigate the Indonesia business cycle encompassing the determination of smoothing parameter (λ) on Hodrick-Prescott filter. Subsequently, the components of the filter output cycles were analyzed using a spectral method useful to know its characteristics, and Markov switching regime modeling is made to forecast the probability recession and expansion regimes. The data used in the study is real GDP (1983Q1 - 2016Q2). The results of the study are: a) Hodrick-Prescott filter on real GDP of Indonesia to be optimal when the value of the smoothing parameter is 988.474, b) Indonesia business cycle has amplitude varies between±0.0071 to±0.01024, and the duration is between 4 to 22 quarters, c) the business cycle can be modelled by MSIV-AR (2) but regime periodization is generated this model not perfect exactly with real regime periodzation, and d) Based on the model MSIV-AR (2) obtained long-term probabilities in the expansion regime: 0.4858 and in the recession regime: 0.5142.
Reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water system using semi-Markov process model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Veeramany, Arun; Pandey, Mahesh D.
2011-01-01
Research highlights: → Semi-Markov process (SMP) model is used to evaluate system failure probability of the nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system. → SMP is used because it can solve reliability block diagram with a mixture of redundant repairable and non-repairable components. → The primary objective is to demonstrate that SMP can consider Weibull failure time distribution for components while a Markov model cannot → Result: the variability in component failure time is directly proportional to the NCCW system failure probability. → The result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects. - Abstract: A reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system is carried out. Semi-Markov process model is used in the analysis because it has potential to solve a reliability block diagram with a mixture of repairable and non-repairable components. With Markov models it is only possible to assume an exponential profile for component failure times. An advantage of the proposed model is the ability to assume Weibull distribution for the failure time of components. In an attempt to reduce the number of states in the model, it is shown that usage of poly-Weibull distribution arises. The objective of the paper is to determine system failure probability under these assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is used to validate the model result. This result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects.
SHIFT: server for hidden stops analysis in frame-shifted translation.
Gupta, Arun; Singh, Tiratha Raj
2013-02-23
Frameshift is one of the three classes of recoding. Frame-shifts lead to waste of energy, resources and activity of the biosynthetic machinery. In addition, some peptides synthesized after frame-shifts are probably cytotoxic which serve as plausible cause for innumerable number of diseases and disorders such as muscular dystrophies, lysosomal storage disorders, and cancer. Hidden stop codons occur naturally in coding sequences among all organisms. These codons are associated with the early termination of translation for incorrect reading frame selection and help to reduce the metabolic cost related to the frameshift events. Researchers have identified several consequences of hidden stop codons and their association with myriad disorders. However the wealth of information available is speckled and not effortlessly acquiescent to data-mining. To reduce this gap, this work describes an algorithmic web based tool to study hidden stops in frameshifted translation for all the lineages through respective genetic code systems. This paper describes SHIFT, an algorithmic web application tool that provides a user-friendly interface for identifying and analyzing hidden stops in frameshifted translation of genomic sequences for all available genetic code systems. We have calculated the correlation between codon usage frequencies and the plausible contribution of codons towards hidden stops in an off-frame context. Markovian chains of various order have been used to model hidden stops in frameshifted peptides and their evolutionary association with naturally occurring hidden stops. In order to obtain reliable and persuasive estimates for the naturally occurring and predicted hidden stops statistical measures have been implemented. This paper presented SHIFT, an algorithmic tool that allows user-friendly exploration, analysis, and visualization of hidden stop codons in frameshifted translations. It is expected that this web based tool would serve as a useful complement for
Reliability analysis of Markov history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Du, Shijia; Zeng, Zhiguo; Cui, Lirong; Kang, Rui
2017-01-01
Markov history-dependent repairable systems refer to the Markov repairable systems in which some states are changeable and dependent on recent evolutional history of the system. In practice, many Markov history-dependent repairable systems are subjected to neglected failures, i.e., some failures do not affect system performances if they can be repaired promptly. In this paper, we develop a model based on the theory of aggregated stochastic processes to describe the history-dependent behavior and the effect of neglected failures on the Markov history-dependent repairable systems. Based on the developed model, instantaneous and steady-state availabilities are derived to characterize the reliability of the system. Four reliability-related time distributions, i.e., distribution for the k th working period, distribution for the k th failure period, distribution for the real working time in an effective working period, distribution for the neglected failure time in an effective working period, are also derived to provide a more comprehensive description of the system's reliability. Thanks to the power of the theory of aggregated stochastic processes, closed-form expressions are obtained for all the reliability indexes and time distributions. Finally, the developed indexes and analysis methods are demonstrated by a numerical example. - Highlights: • Markovian history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures is modeled. • Aggregated stochastic processes are used to derive reliability indexes and time distributions. • Closed-form expressions are derived for the considered indexes and distributions.
System reliability assessment via sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gandini, A.
1988-01-01
Methods for reliability sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme are presented, together with a new formulation which makes use of Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) methods. As well known, sensitivity methods are fundamental in system risk analysis, since they allow to identify important components, so to assist the analyst in finding weaknesses in design and operation and in suggesting optimal modifications for system upgrade. The relationship between the GPT sensitivity expression and the Birnbaum importance is also given [fr
Application of Markov chains-entropy to analysis of depositional environments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Men Guizhen; Shi Xiaohong; Zhao Shuzhi
1989-01-01
The paper systematically and comprehensively discussed application of Markov chains-entropy to analysis of depositional environments of the upper Carboniferous series Taiyuan Formation in Anjialing, Pingshuo open-cast mine, Shanxi. Definite geological meanings were given respectively to calculated values of transition probability matrix, extremity probability matrix, substitution matrix and the entropy. The lithologic successions of coarse-fine-coarse grained layers from bottom upwards in the coal-bearing series made up the general symmetric cyclic patterns. It was suggested that the coal-bearing strata deposited in the coal-forming environment in delta plain-littoral swamps. Quantitative study of cyclic visibility and variation of formation was conducted. The assemblage relation among stratigraphic sequences and the significance of predicting vertical change were emphasized. Results of study showed that overall analysis of Markov chains was an effective method for analysis of depositional environments of coal-bearing strata. 2 refs., 5 figs.
Reliability Analysis of 6-Component Star Markov Repairable System with Spatial Dependence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liying Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Star repairable systems with spatial dependence consist of a center component and several peripheral components. The peripheral components are arranged around the center component, and the performance of each component depends on its spatial “neighbors.” Vector-Markov process is adapted to describe the performance of the system. The state space and transition rate matrix corresponding to the 6-component star Markov repairable system with spatial dependence are presented via probability analysis method. Several reliability indices, such as the availability, the probabilities of visiting the safety, the degradation, the alert, and the failed state sets, are obtained by Laplace transform method and a numerical example is provided to illustrate the results.
Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant
Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram; Garg, Tarun Kr.
2015-12-01
This paper deals with the Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant. This system was modeled using Markov birth-death process with the assumption that the failure and repair rates of each subsystem follow exponential distribution. The first-order Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations are developed with the use of mnemonic rule and these equations are solved with Runga-Kutta fourth-order method. The long-run availability, reliability and mean time between failures are computed for various choices of failure and repair rates of subsystems of the system. The findings of the paper are discussed with the plant personnel to adopt and practice suitable maintenance policies/strategies to enhance the performance of the urea synthesis system of the fertilizer plant.
Al-Ghraibah, Amani
error of approximately 3/4 a GOES class. We also consider thresholding the regressed flare size for the experiment containing both flaring and non-flaring regions and find a TPR. of 0.69 and a TNR of 0.86 for flare prediction, consistent with our previous studies of flare prediction using the same magnetic complexity features. The results for both of these size regression experiments are consistent across a wide range of predictive time windows, indicating that the magnetic complexity features may be persistent in appearance long before flare activity. This conjecture is supported by our larger error rates of some 40 hours in the time-to-flare regression problem. The magnetic complexity features considered here appear to have discriminative potential for flare size, but their persistence in time makes them less discriminative for the time-to-flare problem. We also study the prediction of solar flare size and time-to-flare using two temporal features, namely the ▵- and ▵-▵-features, the same average size and time-to-flare regression error are found when these temporal features are used in size and time-to-flare prediction. In the third topic, we study the temporal evolution of active region magnetic fields using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) which is one of the efficient temporal analyses found in literature. We extracted 38 features which describing the complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. These features are converted into a sequence of symbols using k-nearest neighbor search method. We study many parameters before prediction; like the length of the training window Wtrain which denotes to the number of history images use to train the flare and non-flare HMMs, and number of hidden states Q. In training phase, the model parameters of the HMM of each category are optimized so as to best describe the training symbol sequences. In testing phase, we use the best flare and non-flare models to predict/classify active regions as a flaring or non-flaring region
Availability analysis of subsea blowout preventer using Markov model considering demand rate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sunghee Kim
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Availabilities of subsea Blowout Preventers (BOP in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (GoM OCS is investigated using a Markov method. An updated β factor model by SINTEF is used for common-cause failures in multiple redundant systems. Coefficient values of failure rates for the Markov model are derived using the β factor model of the PDS (reliability of computer-based safety systems, Norwegian acronym method. The blind shear ram preventer system of the subsea BOP components considers a demand rate to reflect reality more. Markov models considering the demand rate for one or two components are introduced. Two data sets are compared at the GoM OCS. The results show that three or four pipe ram preventers give similar availabilities, but redundant blind shear ram preventers or annular preventers enhance the availability of the subsea BOP. Also control systems (PODs and connectors are contributable components to improve the availability of the subsea BOPs based on sensitivity analysis.
Li, Yue; Jha, Devesh K; Ray, Asok; Wettergren, Thomas A; Yue Li; Jha, Devesh K; Ray, Asok; Wettergren, Thomas A; Wettergren, Thomas A; Li, Yue; Ray, Asok; Jha, Devesh K
2018-06-01
This paper presents information-theoretic performance analysis of passive sensor networks for detection of moving targets. The proposed method falls largely under the category of data-level information fusion in sensor networks. To this end, a measure of information contribution for sensors is formulated in a symbolic dynamics framework. The network information state is approximately represented as the largest principal component of the time series collected across the network. To quantify each sensor's contribution for generation of the information content, Markov machine models as well as x-Markov (pronounced as cross-Markov) machine models, conditioned on the network information state, are constructed; the difference between the conditional entropies of these machines is then treated as an approximate measure of information contribution by the respective sensors. The x-Markov models represent the conditional temporal statistics given the network information state. The proposed method has been validated on experimental data collected from a local area network of passive sensors for target detection, where the statistical characteristics of environmental disturbances are similar to those of the target signal in the sense of time scale and texture. A distinctive feature of the proposed algorithm is that the network decisions are independent of the behavior and identity of the individual sensors, which is desirable from computational perspectives. Results are presented to demonstrate the proposed method's efficacy to correctly identify the presence of a target with very low false-alarm rates. The performance of the underlying algorithm is compared with that of a recent data-driven, feature-level information fusion algorithm. It is shown that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithm.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Son, Kwang Seop; Kim, Dong Hoon; Kim, Chang Hwoi; Kang, Hyun Gook
2016-01-01
The Markov analysis is a technique for modeling system state transitions and calculating the probability of reaching various system states. While it is a proper tool for modeling complex system designs involving timing, sequencing, repair, redundancy, and fault tolerance, as the complexity or size of the system increases, so does the number of states of interest, leading to difficulty in constructing and solving the Markov model. This paper introduces a systematic approach of Markov modeling to analyze the dependability of a complex fault-tolerant system. This method is based on the decomposition of the system into independent subsystem sets, and the system-level failure rate and the unavailability rate for the decomposed subsystems. A Markov model for the target system is easily constructed using the system-level failure and unavailability rates for the subsystems, which can be treated separately. This approach can decrease the number of states to consider simultaneously in the target system by building Markov models of the independent subsystems stage by stage, and results in an exact solution for the Markov model of the whole target system. To apply this method we construct a Markov model for the reactor protection system found in nuclear power plants, a system configured with four identical channels and various fault-tolerant architectures. The results show that the proposed method in this study treats the complex architecture of the system in an efficient manner using the merits of the Markov model, such as a time dependent analysis and a sequential process analysis. - Highlights: • Systematic approach of Markov modeling for system dependability analysis is proposed based on the independent subsystem set, its failure rate and unavailability rate. • As an application example, we construct the Markov model for the digital reactor protection system configured with four identical and independent channels, and various fault-tolerant architectures. • The
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mokaedi V. Lekgari
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We investigate random-time state-dependent Foster-Lyapunov analysis on subgeometric rate ergodicity of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs. We are mainly concerned with making use of the available results on deterministic state-dependent drift conditions for CTMCs and on random-time state-dependent drift conditions for discrete-time Markov chains and transferring them to CTMCs.
Deviney, Frank A.; Rice, Karen; Brown, Donald E.
2012-01-01
Natural resource managers require information concerning the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates. An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.
Hur, Pilwon; Shorter, K Alex; Mehta, Prashant G; Hsiao-Wecksler, Elizabeth T
2012-04-01
In this paper, a novel analysis technique, invariant density analysis (IDA), is introduced. IDA quantifies steady-state behavior of the postural control system using center of pressure (COP) data collected during quiet standing. IDA relies on the analysis of a reduced-order finite Markov model to characterize stochastic behavior observed during postural sway. Five IDA parameters characterize the model and offer physiological insight into the long-term dynamical behavior of the postural control system. Two studies were performed to demonstrate the efficacy of IDA. Study 1 showed that multiple short trials can be concatenated to create a dataset suitable for IDA. Study 2 demonstrated that IDA was effective at distinguishing age-related differences in postural control behavior between young, middle-aged, and older adults. These results suggest that the postural control system of young adults converges more quickly to their steady-state behavior while maintaining COP nearer an overall centroid than either the middle-aged or older adults. Additionally, larger entropy values for older adults indicate that their COP follows a more stochastic path, while smaller entropy values for young adults indicate a more deterministic path. These results illustrate the potential of IDA as a quantitative tool for the assessment of the quiet-standing postural control system.
System reliability analysis and introduction to modelisation by means of Markov chains
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doyon, L.R.
1977-01-01
A new method to solve simultaneously all models of availability, reliability and maintenaibility for a complex system is described. This analysis is obtained more exactly by using time-intervals between failures and times to repare with probability laws and maintenance policies most adapted to the problem. The expression of this computation, using MARKOV chains corresponds perfectly to computer-language and results very short machine operation times. The procedure necessary for the use of APAFS program operationnal at the CISI (Compagnie Internationale de Services en Informatique) is also described. Thus, a very important tool is now available to designers without any requirement in programming knowledge [fr
Snyder, Morgan E.; Waldron, John W. F.
2018-03-01
The deformation history of the Upper Paleozoic Maritimes Basin, Atlantic Canada, can be partially unraveled by examining fractures (joints, veins, and faults) that are well exposed on the shorelines of the macrotidal Bay of Fundy, in subsurface core, and on image logs. Data were collected from coastal outcrops and well core across the Windsor-Kennetcook subbasin, a subbasin in the Maritimes Basin, using the circular scan-line and vertical scan-line methods in outcrop, and FMI Image log analysis of core. We use cross-cutting and abutting relationships between fractures to understand relative timing of fracturing, followed by a statistical test (Markov chain analysis) to separate groups of fractures. This analysis, previously used in sedimentology, was modified to statistically test the randomness of fracture timing relationships. The results of the Markov chain analysis suggest that fracture initiation can be attributed to movement along the Minas Fault Zone, an E-W fault system that bounds the Windsor-Kennetcook subbasin to the north. Four sets of fractures are related to dextral strike slip along the Minas Fault Zone in the late Paleozoic, and four sets are related to sinistral reactivation of the same boundary in the Mesozoic.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sailaja A
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Cost of Quality analysis is emerged as an effective tool for the industrial managers for pinpointing the deficiencies in the system as well as for identifying the improvement areas by highlighting the cost reduction opportunities. However , this analysis will be fully effective only if it is further extended to identify the cost incurred in ensuring quality in all areas of the supply chain including the hidden costs and costs of missed out opportunities. Most of the hidden elements of quality costs are difficult to track and not accounted by the traditional accounting tools. An exploratory analysis is made in this research to identify the hidden elements of quality costs in manufacturing industry. Further, the identified cost elements are classified into various groups for better analysis and, finally, prioritized to identify the vital few among them. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP technique which is one of the most popular Multi Criteria Decision Method (MCDM and Pareto analysis were used in this study for prioritizing the hidden quality cost elements based on their degree of impact on overall cost of quality. By this analysis, the key cost elements which are to be addressed to reduce the overall cost of quality are identified.
Kirkwood, James R
2015-01-01
Review of ProbabilityShort HistoryReview of Basic Probability DefinitionsSome Common Probability DistributionsProperties of a Probability DistributionProperties of the Expected ValueExpected Value of a Random Variable with Common DistributionsGenerating FunctionsMoment Generating FunctionsExercisesDiscrete-Time, Finite-State Markov ChainsIntroductionNotationTransition MatricesDirected Graphs: Examples of Markov ChainsRandom Walk with Reflecting BoundariesGamblerâ€™s RuinEhrenfest ModelCentral Problem of Markov ChainsCondition to Ensure a Unique Equilibrium StateFinding the Equilibrium StateTransient and Recurrent StatesIndicator FunctionsPerron-Frobenius TheoremAbsorbing Markov ChainsMean First Passage TimeMean Recurrence Time and the Equilibrium StateFundamental Matrix for Regular Markov ChainsDividing a Markov Chain into Equivalence ClassesPeriodic Markov ChainsReducible Markov ChainsSummaryExercisesDiscrete-Time, Infinite-State Markov ChainsRenewal ProcessesDelayed Renewal ProcessesEquilibrium State f...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lammers Jan-Willem J
2007-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to accurately distinguish gaps of varying length in drug treatment for chronic conditions from discontinuation without resuming therapy, short-term observation does not suffice. Thus, the use of inhalation corticosteroids (ICS in the long-term, during a ten-year period is investigated. To describe medication use as a continuum, taking into account the timeliness and consistency of refilling, a Markov model is proposed. Methods Patients, that filled at least one prescription in 1993, were selected from the PHARMO medical record linkage system (RLS containing >95% prescription dispensings per patient originating from community pharmacy records of 6 medium-sized cities in the Netherlands. The probabilities of continuous use, the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in each year of follow-up, and medication free periods were assessed by Markov analysis. Stratified analysis according to new use was performed. Results The transition probabilities of the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in the subsequent year of follow-up, were assessed for each year of follow-up and for the total study period. The change of transition probabilities in time was evaluated, e.g. the probability of continuing ICS use of starters in the first two years (51% of follow-up increased to more than 70% in the following years. The probabilities of different patterns of medication use were assessed: continuous use (7.7%, cumulative medication gaps (1–8 years 69.1% and discontinuing (23.2% during ten-year follow-up for new users. New users had lower probability of continuous use (7.7% and more variability in ICS refill patterns than previous users (56%. Conclusion In addition to well-established methods in epidemiology to ascertain compliance and persistence, a Markov model could be useful to further specify the variety of possible patterns of medication use within the continuum of adherence. This Markov model describes variation in
Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis; TOPICAL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
COOPER, J. ARLIN
1999-01-01
The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy
Sharma, Sanjib
2017-08-01
Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.
Markov Chains and Markov Processes
Ogunbayo, Segun
2016-01-01
Markov chain, which was named after Andrew Markov is a mathematical system that transfers a state to another state. Many real world systems contain uncertainty. This study helps us to understand the basic idea of a Markov chain and how is been useful in our daily lives. For some times there had been suspense on distinct predictions and future existences. Also in different games there had been different expectations or results involved. That is the reason why we need Markov chains to predict o...
Development of Markov model of emergency diesel generator for dynamic reliability analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jin, Young Ho; Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)
1999-02-01
The EDG (Emergency Diesal Generator) of nuclear power plant is one of the most important equipments in mitigating accidents. The FT (Fault Tree) method is widely used to assess the reliability of safety systems like an EDG in nuclear power plant. This method, however, has limitations in modeling dynamic features of safety systems exactly. We, hence, have developed a Markov model to represent the stochastic process of dynamic systems whose states change as time moves on. The Markov model enables us to develop a dynamic reliability model of EDG. This model can represent all possible states of EDG comparing to the FRANTIC code developed by U.S. NRC for the reliability analysis of standby systems. to access the regulation policy for test interval, we performed two simulations based on the generic data and plant specific data of YGN 3, respectively by using the developed model. We also estimate the effects of various repair rates and the fractions of starting failures by demand shock to the reliability of EDG. And finally, Aging effect is analyzed. (author). 23 refs., 19 figs., 9 tabs.
[Analysis and modelling of safety culture in a Mexican hospital by Markov chains].
Velázquez-Martínez, J D; Cruz-Suárez, H; Santos-Reyes, J
2016-01-01
The objective of this study was to analyse and model the safety culture with Markov chains, as well as predicting and/or prioritizing over time the evolutionary behaviour of the safety culture of the health's staff in one Mexican hospital. The Markov chain theory has been employed in the analysis, and the input data has been obtained from a previous study based on the Safety Attitude Questionnaire (CAS-MX-II), by considering the following 6 dimensions: safety climate, teamwork, job satisfaction, recognition of stress, perception of management, and work environment. The results highlighted the predictions and/or prioritisation of the approximate time for the possible integration into the evolutionary behaviour of the safety culture as regards the "slightly agree" (Likert scale) for: safety climate (in 12 years; 24.13%); teamwork (8 years; 34.61%); job satisfaction (11 years; 52.41%); recognition of the level of stress (8 years; 19.35%); and perception of the direction (22 years; 27.87%). The work environment dimension was unable to determine the behaviour of staff information, i.e. no information cultural roots were obtained. In general, it has been shown that there are weaknesses in the safety culture of the hospital, which is an opportunity to suggest changes to the mandatory policies in order to strengthen it. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Markov analysis of alpha-helical, beta-sheet and random coil regions of proteins
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macchiato, M.; Tramontano, A.
1983-01-01
The rules up to now used to predict the spatial configuration of proteins from their primary structure are mostly based on the recurrence analysis of some doublets, triplets and so on of contiguous amino acids, but they do not take into account the correlation characteristics of the whole amino acid sequence. A statistical analysis of amino acid sequences for the alpha-helical, beta-sheet and random coil regions of about twenty proteins with known secondary structure by considering correlations effects has been carried out. The obtained results demonstrate that these sequences are at least a second-order Markov chain, i.e. they appear as if they were generated by a source that remembers at least the two aminoacids before the one being generated and that these two previous symbols influence the present choice
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF NOTATIONAL AFL DATA USING CONTINUOUS TIME MARKOV CHAINS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Denny Meyer
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Animal biologists commonly use continuous time Markov chain models to describe patterns of animal behaviour. In this paper we consider the use of these models for describing AFL football. In particular we test the assumptions for continuous time Markov chain models (CTMCs, with time, distance and speed values associated with each transition. Using a simple event categorisation it is found that a semi-Markov chain model is appropriate for this data. This validates the use of Markov Chains for future studies in which the outcomes of AFL matches are simulated
Markov Models for Handwriting Recognition
Plotz, Thomas
2011-01-01
Since their first inception, automatic reading systems have evolved substantially, yet the recognition of handwriting remains an open research problem due to its substantial variation in appearance. With the introduction of Markovian models to the field, a promising modeling and recognition paradigm was established for automatic handwriting recognition. However, no standard procedures for building Markov model-based recognizers have yet been established. This text provides a comprehensive overview of the application of Markov models in the field of handwriting recognition, covering both hidden
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Balan, I.
2005-05-01
This work presents the implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for the Continuous Time, Discrete Space Markov chains (CTMC), as an alternative to the other computational expensive methods. In order to develop this procedure as an end product in reliability studies, the reliability of the physical systems is analyzed using a coupled Fault-Tree - Markov chain technique, i.e. the abstraction of the physical system is performed using as the high level interface the Fault-Tree and afterwards this one is automatically converted into a Markov chain. The resulting differential equations based on the Markov chain model are solved in order to evaluate the system reliability. Further sensitivity analyses using ASAP applied to CTMC equations are performed to study the influence of uncertainties in input data to the reliability measures and to get the confidence in the final reliability results. The methods to generate the Markov chain and the ASAP for the Markov chain equations have been implemented into the new computer code system QUEFT/MARKOMAGS/MCADJSEN for reliability and sensitivity analysis of physical systems. The validation of this code system has been carried out by using simple problems for which analytical solutions can be obtained. Typical sensitivity results show that the numerical solution using ASAP is robust, stable and accurate. The method and the code system developed during this work can be used further as an efficient and flexible tool to evaluate the sensitivities of reliability measures for any physical system analyzed using the Markov chain. Reliability and sensitivity analyses using these methods have been performed during this work for the IFMIF Accelerator System Facilities. The reliability studies using Markov chain have been concentrated around the availability of the main subsystems of this complex physical system for a typical mission time. The sensitivity studies for two typical responses using ASAP have been
Diffraction efficiency and noise analysis of hidden image holograms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tamulevičius, Sigitas; Andrulevičius, Mindaugas; Puodžiukynas, Linas
2017-01-01
recorded in a photoresist layer spin-coated on glass substrates applying laser interference lithography technique. Both analogue and digital analysis approaches showed the similar results thus confirming the appropriateness of the used analysis methods. It was found that holograms recorded at higher laser...
Effects of tour boats on dolphin activity examined with sensitivity analysis of Markov chains.
Dans, Silvana Laura; Degrati, Mariana; Pedraza, Susana Noemí; Crespo, Enrique Alberto
2012-08-01
In Patagonia, Argentina, watching dolphins, especially dusky dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obscurus), is a new tourist activity. Feeding time decreases and time to return to feeding after feeding is abandoned and time it takes a group of dolphins to feed increase in the presence of boats. Such effects on feeding behavior may exert energetic costs on dolphins and thus reduce an individual's survival and reproductive capacity or maybe associated with shifts in distribution. We sought to predict which behavioral changes modify the activity pattern of dolphins the most. We modeled behavioral sequences of dusky dolphins with Markov chains. We calculated transition probabilities from one activity to another and arranged them in a stochastic matrix model. The proportion of time dolphins dedicated to a given activity (activity budget) and the time it took a dolphin to resume that activity after it had been abandoned (recurrence time) were calculated. We used a sensitivity analysis of Markov chains to calculate the sensitivity of the time budget and the activity-resumption time to changes in behavioral transition probabilities. Feeding-time budget was most sensitive to changes in the probability of dolphins switching from traveling to feeding behavior and of maintaining feeding behavior. Thus, an increase in these probabilities would be associated with the largest reduction in the time dedicated to feeding. A reduction in the probability of changing from traveling to feeding would also be associated with the largest increases in the time it takes dolphins to resume feeding. To approach dolphins when they are traveling would not affect behavior less because presence of the boat may keep dolphins from returning to feeding. Our results may help operators of dolphin-watching vessels minimize negative effects on dolphins. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.
Influence of Averaging Preprocessing on Image Analysis with a Markov Random Field Model
Sakamoto, Hirotaka; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Okada, Masato
2018-02-01
This paper describes our investigations into the influence of averaging preprocessing on the performance of image analysis. Averaging preprocessing involves a trade-off: image averaging is often undertaken to reduce noise while the number of image data available for image analysis is decreased. We formulated a process of generating image data by using a Markov random field (MRF) model to achieve image analysis tasks such as image restoration and hyper-parameter estimation by a Bayesian approach. According to the notions of Bayesian inference, posterior distributions were analyzed to evaluate the influence of averaging. There are three main results. First, we found that the performance of image restoration with a predetermined value for hyper-parameters is invariant regardless of whether averaging is conducted. We then found that the performance of hyper-parameter estimation deteriorates due to averaging. Our analysis of the negative logarithm of the posterior probability, which is called the free energy based on an analogy with statistical mechanics, indicated that the confidence of hyper-parameter estimation remains higher without averaging. Finally, we found that when the hyper-parameters are estimated from the data, the performance of image restoration worsens as averaging is undertaken. We conclude that averaging adversely influences the performance of image analysis through hyper-parameter estimation.
Hidden flows and waste processing--an analysis of illustrative futures.
Schiller, F; Raffield, T; Angus, A; Herben, M; Young, P J; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T
2010-12-14
An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel and AMBER model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgets.
Unveiling Hidden Dynamics of Hippo Signalling: A Systems Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sung-Young Shin
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The Hippo signalling pathway has recently emerged as an important regulator of cell apoptosis and proliferation with significant implications in human diseases. In mammals, the pathway contains the core kinases MST1/2, which phosphorylate and activate LATS1/2 kinases. The pro-apoptotic function of the MST/LATS signalling axis was previously linked to the Akt and ERK MAPK pathways, demonstrating that the Hippo pathway does not act alone but crosstalks with other signalling pathways to coordinate network dynamics and cellular outcomes. These crosstalks were characterised by a multitude of complex regulatory mechanisms involving competitive protein-protein interactions and phosphorylation mediated feedback loops. However, how these different mechanisms interplay in different cellular contexts to drive the context-specific network dynamics of Hippo-ERK signalling remains elusive. Using mathematical modelling and computational analysis, we uncovered that the Hippo-ERK network can generate highly diverse dynamical profiles that can be clustered into distinct dose-response patterns. For each pattern, we offered mechanistic explanation that defines when and how the observed phenomenon can arise. We demonstrated that Akt displays opposing, dose-dependent functions towards ERK, which are mediated by the balance between the Raf-1/MST2 protein interaction module and the LATS1 mediated feedback regulation. Moreover, Ras displays a multi-functional role and drives biphasic responses of both MST2 and ERK activities; which are critically governed by the competitive protein interaction between MST2 and Raf-1. Our study represents the first in-depth and systematic analysis of the Hippo-ERK network dynamics and provides a concrete foundation for future studies.
A Stochastic Hybrid Systems framework for analysis of Markov reward models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dhople, S.V.; DeVille, L.; Domínguez-García, A.D.
2014-01-01
In this paper, we propose a framework to analyze Markov reward models, which are commonly used in system performability analysis. The framework builds on a set of analytical tools developed for a class of stochastic processes referred to as Stochastic Hybrid Systems (SHS). The state space of an SHS is comprised of: (i) a discrete state that describes the possible configurations/modes that a system can adopt, which includes the nominal (non-faulty) operational mode, but also those operational modes that arise due to component faults, and (ii) a continuous state that describes the reward. Discrete state transitions are stochastic, and governed by transition rates that are (in general) a function of time and the value of the continuous state. The evolution of the continuous state is described by a stochastic differential equation and reward measures are defined as functions of the continuous state. Additionally, each transition is associated with a reset map that defines the mapping between the pre- and post-transition values of the discrete and continuous states; these mappings enable the definition of impulses and losses in the reward. The proposed SHS-based framework unifies the analysis of a variety of previously studied reward models. We illustrate the application of the framework to performability analysis via analytical and numerical examples
Ensemble Learning Method for Hidden Markov Models
2014-12-01
dm (Or) ∂ dm (Or) ∂gOrc ∂gOrc ∂a (c) ij ∂a (c) ij ∂ã (c) ij , and ∂L(Λ) ∂b̃ (c) ij = R...r=1 C∑ m=1 ∂lm(Or) ∂ dm (Or) ∂ dm (Or) ∂gOrc ∂gOrc ∂b (c) ij ∂b (c) ij ∂b̃ (c) ij . Substituting the partial derivatives, we get the gradient direction of... crisp and fuzzy character neural networks in handwritten word recognition,” Fuzzy Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 357 –363,
Characterization of prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters usinghidden Markov models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Anders Gorm; Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren
1996-01-01
In this paper we utilize hidden Markov models (HMMs) and information theory to analyze prokaryotic and eukaryotic promoters. We perform this analysis with special emphasis on the fact that promoters are divided into a number of different classes, depending on which polymerase-associated factors...... that bind to them. We find that HMMs trained on such subclasses of Escherichia coli promoters (specifically, the so-called sigma-70 and sigma-54 classes) give an excellent classification of unknown promoters with respect to sigma-class. HMMs trained on eukaryotic sequences from human genes also model nicely...
CA-Markov Analysis of Constrained Coastal Urban Growth Modeling: Hua Hin Seaside City, Thailand
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rajendra Shrestha
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Thailand, a developing country in Southeast Asia, is experiencing rapid development, particularly urban growth as a response to the expansion of the tourism industry. Hua Hin city provides an excellent example of an area where urbanization has flourished due to tourism. This study focuses on how the dynamic urban horizontal expansion of the seaside city of Hua Hin is constrained by the coast, thus making sustainability for this popular tourist destination—managing and planning for its local inhabitants, its visitors, and its sites—an issue. The study examines the association of land use type and land use change by integrating Geo-Information technology, a statistic model, and CA-Markov analysis for sustainable land use planning. The study identifies that the land use types and land use changes from the year 1999 to 2008 have changed as a result of increased mobility; this trend, in turn, has everything to do with urban horizontal expansion. The changing sequences of land use type have developed from forest area to agriculture, from agriculture to grassland, then to bare land and built-up areas. Coastal urban growth has, for a decade, been expanding horizontally from a downtown center along the beach to the western area around the golf course, the southern area along the beach, the southwest grassland area, and then the northern area near the airport.
Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis to constrain dark matter properties with directional detection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Billard, J.; Mayet, F.; Santos, D.
2011-01-01
Directional detection is a promising dark matter search strategy. Indeed, weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP)-induced recoils would present a direction dependence toward the Cygnus constellation, while background-induced recoils exhibit an isotropic distribution in the Galactic rest frame. Taking advantage of these characteristic features, and even in the presence of a sizeable background, it has recently been shown that data from forthcoming directional detectors could lead either to a competitive exclusion or to a conclusive discovery, depending on the value of the WIMP-nucleon cross section. However, it is possible to further exploit these upcoming data by using the strong dependence of the WIMP signal with: the WIMP mass and the local WIMP velocity distribution. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of recoil events, we show for the first time the possibility to constrain the unknown WIMP parameters, both from particle physics (mass and cross section) and Galactic halo (velocity dispersion along the three axis), leading to an identification of non-baryonic dark matter.
Markov chain Monte Carlo linkage analysis: effect of bin width on the probability of linkage.
Slager, S L; Juo, S H; Durner, M; Hodge, S E
2001-01-01
We analyzed part of the Genetic Analysis Workshop (GAW) 12 simulated data using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods that are implemented in the computer program Loki. The MCMC method reports the "probability of linkage" (PL) across the chromosomal regions of interest. The point of maximum PL can then be taken as a "location estimate" for the location of the quantitative trait locus (QTL). However, Loki does not provide a formal statistical test of linkage. In this paper, we explore how the bin width used in the calculations affects the max PL and the location estimate. We analyzed age at onset (AO) and quantitative trait number 5, Q5, from 26 replicates of the general simulated data in one region where we knew a major gene, MG5, is located. For each trait, we found the max PL and the corresponding location estimate, using four different bin widths. We found that bin width, as expected, does affect the max PL and the location estimate, and we recommend that users of Loki explore how their results vary with different bin widths.
Theoretical analysis of hidden photon searches in high-precision experiments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beranek, Tobias
2014-01-01
Although the Standard Model of particle physics (SM) provides an extremely successful description of the ordinary matter, one knows from astronomical observations that it accounts only for around 5% of the total energy density of the Universe, whereas around 30% are contributed by the dark matter. Motivated by anomalies in cosmic ray observations and by attempts to solve questions of the SM like the (g-2) μ discrepancy, proposed U(1) extensions of the Standard Model gauge group SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) have raised attention in recent years. In the considered U(1) extensions a new, light messenger particle γ', the hidden photon, couples to the hidden sector as well as to the electromagnetic current of the SM by kinetic mixing. This allows for a search for this particle in laboratory experiments exploring the electromagnetic interaction. Various experimental programs have been started to search for the γ' boson, such as in electron-scattering experiments, which are a versatile tool to explore various physics phenomena. One approach is the dedicated search in fixed-target experiments at modest energies as performed at MAMI or at JLAB. In these experiments the scattering of an electron beam off a hadronic target e→e(A,Z)l + l - is investigated and a search for a very narrow resonance in the invariant mass distribution of the l + l - pair is performed. This requires an accurate understanding of the theoretical basis of the underlying processes. For this purpose it is demonstrated in the first part of this work, in which way the hidden photon can be motivated from existing puzzles encountered at the precision frontier of the SM. The main part of this thesis deals with the analysis of the theoretical framework for electron scattering fixed-target experiments searching for hidden photons. As a first step, the cross section for the bremsstrahlung emission of hidden photons in such experiments is studied. Based on these results, the applicability of the Weizsaecker
Nonlinear Markov processes: Deterministic case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frank, T.D.
2008-01-01
Deterministic Markov processes that exhibit nonlinear transition mechanisms for probability densities are studied. In this context, the following issues are addressed: Markov property, conditional probability densities, propagation of probability densities, multistability in terms of multiple stationary distributions, stability analysis of stationary distributions, and basin of attraction of stationary distribution
Peng, Zhihang; Bao, Changjun; Zhao, Yang; Yi, Honggang; Xia, Letian; Yu, Hao; Shen, Hongbing; Chen, Feng
2010-01-01
This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course. Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain, a method which is used to predict the future incidence state. This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable. It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal. Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province. In summation, this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain, specifically in the field of infection epidemiology. PMID:23554632
Peng, Zhihang; Bao, Changjun; Zhao, Yang; Yi, Honggang; Xia, Letian; Yu, Hao; Shen, Hongbing; Chen, Feng
2010-05-01
This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course. Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain, a method which is used to predict the future incidence state. This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable. It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal. Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province. In summation, this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain, specifically in the field of infection epidemiology.
Learning about gender on campus: an analysis of the hidden curriculum for medical students.
Cheng, Ling-Fang; Yang, Hsing-Chen
2015-03-01
Gender sensitivity is a crucial factor in the provision of quality health care. This paper explores acquired gendered values and attitudes among medical students through an analysis of the hidden curriculum that exists within formal medical classes and informal learning. Discourse analysis was adopted as the research method. Data were collected from the Bulletin Board System (BBS), which represented an essential communication platform among students in Taiwan before the era of Facebook. The study examined 197 gender-related postings on the BBS boards of nine of 11 universities with a medical department in Taiwan, over a period of 10 years from 2000 to 2010. The five distinctive characteristics of the hidden curriculum were as follows: (i) gendered stereotypes of physiological knowledge; (ii) biased treatment of women; (iii) stereotyped gender-based division of labour; (iv) sexual harassment and a hostile environment, and (v) ridiculing of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people. Both teachers and students co-produced a heterosexual masculine culture and sexism, including 'benevolent sexism' and 'hostile sexism'. As a result, the self-esteem and learning opportunities of female and LGBT students have been eroded. The paper explores gender dynamics in the context of a hidden curriculum in which heterosexual masculinity and stereotyped sexism are prevalent as norms. Both teachers and students, whether through formal medical classes or informal extracurricular interactive activities, are noted to contribute to the consolidation of such norms. The study tentatively suggests three strategies for integrating gender into medical education: (i) by separating physiological knowledge from gender stereotyping in teaching; (ii) by highlighting the importance of gender sensitivity in the language used within and outside the classroom by teachers and students, and (iii) by broadening the horizons of both teachers and students by recounting examples of the lived
Faure, Guilhem; Callebaut, Isabelle
2013-07-15
Describing domain architecture is a critical step in the functional characterization of proteins. However, some orphan domains do not match any profile stored in dedicated domain databases and are thereby difficult to analyze. We present here an original novel approach, called TREMOLO-HCA, for the analysis of orphan domain sequences and inspired from our experience in the use of Hydrophobic Cluster Analysis (HCA). Hidden relationships between protein sequences can be more easily identified from the PSI-BLAST results, using information on domain architecture, HCA plots and the conservation degree of amino acids that may participate in the protein core. This can lead to reveal remote relationships with known families of domains, as illustrated here with the identification of a hidden Tudor tandem in the human BAHCC1 protein and a hidden ET domain in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Taf14p and human AF9 proteins. The results obtained in such a way are consistent with those provided by HHPRED, based on pairwise comparisons of HHMs. Our approach can, however, be applied even in absence of domain profiles or known 3D structures for the identification of novel families of domains. It can also be used in a reverse way for refining domain profiles, by starting from known protein domain families and identifying highly divergent members, hitherto considered as orphan. We provide a possible integration of this approach in an open TREMOLO-HCA package, which is fully implemented in python v2.7 and is available on request. Instructions are available at http://www.impmc.upmc.fr/∼callebau/tremolohca.html. isabelle.callebaut@impmc.upmc.fr Supplementary Data are available at Bioinformatics online.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krogh, Anders Stærmose; Riis, Søren Kamaric
1999-01-01
A general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMMs) and neural networks (NNs) called hidden neural networks (HNNs) is described. The article begins by reviewing standard HMMs and estimation by conditional maximum likelihood, which is used by the HNN. In the HNN, the usual HMM probability...... parameters are replaced by the outputs of state-specific neural networks. As opposed to many other hybrids, the HNN is normalized globally and therefore has a valid probabilistic interpretation. All parameters in the HNN are estimated simultaneously according to the discriminative conditional maximum...... likelihood criterion. The HNN can be viewed as an undirected probabilistic independence network (a graphical model), where the neural networks provide a compact representation of the clique functions. An evaluation of the HNN on the task of recognizing broad phoneme classes in the TIMIT database shows clear...
Ma, Jianzhong; Amos, Christopher I; Warwick Daw, E
2007-09-01
Although extended pedigrees are often sampled through probands with extreme levels of a quantitative trait, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for segregation and linkage analysis have not been able to perform ascertainment corrections. Further, the extent to which ascertainment of pedigrees leads to biases in the estimation of segregation and linkage parameters has not been previously studied for MCMC procedures. In this paper, we studied these issues with a Bayesian MCMC approach for joint segregation and linkage analysis, as implemented in the package Loki. We first simulated pedigrees ascertained through individuals with extreme values of a quantitative trait in spirit of the sequential sampling theory of Cannings and Thompson [Cannings and Thompson [1977] Clin. Genet. 12:208-212]. Using our simulated data, we detected no bias in estimates of the trait locus location. However, in addition to allele frequencies, when the ascertainment threshold was higher than or close to the true value of the highest genotypic mean, bias was also found in the estimation of this parameter. When there were multiple trait loci, this bias destroyed the additivity of the effects of the trait loci, and caused biases in the estimation all genotypic means when a purely additive model was used for analyzing the data. To account for pedigree ascertainment with sequential sampling, we developed a Bayesian ascertainment approach and implemented Metropolis-Hastings updates in the MCMC samplers used in Loki. Ascertainment correction greatly reduced biases in parameter estimates. Our method is designed for multiple, but a fixed number of trait loci. Copyright (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eldon Glen Caldwell Marin
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The Markov Chains Model was proposed to analyze stochastic events when recursive cycles occur; for example, when rework in a continuous flow production affects the overall performance. Typically, the analysis of rework and scrap is done through a wasted material cost perspective and not from the perspective of waste capacity that reduces throughput and economic value added (EVA. Also, we can not find many cases of this application in agro-industrial production in Latin America, given the complexity of the calculations and the need for robust applications. This scientific work presents the results of a quasi-experimental research approach in order to explain how to apply DOE methods and Markov analysis in a rice production process located in Central America, evaluating the global effects of a single reduction in rework and scrap in a part of the whole line. The results show that in this case it is possible to evaluate benefits from Global Throughput and EVA perspective and not only from the saving costs perspective, finding a relationship between operational indicators and corporate performance. However, it was found that it is necessary to analyze the markov chains configuration with many rework points, also it is still relevant to take into account the effects on takt time and not only scrap´s costs.
Zhang, Yuanhui; Wu, Haipeng; Denton, Brian T; Wilson, James R; Lobo, Jennifer M
2017-10-27
Markov models are commonly used for decision-making studies in many application domains; however, there are no widely adopted methods for performing sensitivity analysis on such models with uncertain transition probability matrices (TPMs). This article describes two simulation-based approaches for conducting probabilistic sensitivity analysis on a given discrete-time, finite-horizon, finite-state Markov model using TPMs that are sampled over a specified uncertainty set according to a relevant probability distribution. The first approach assumes no prior knowledge of the probability distribution, and each row of a TPM is independently sampled from the uniform distribution on the row's uncertainty set. The second approach involves random sampling from the (truncated) multivariate normal distribution of the TPM's maximum likelihood estimators for its rows subject to the condition that each row has nonnegative elements and sums to one. The two sampling methods are easily implemented and have reasonable computation times. A case study illustrates the application of these methods to a medical decision-making problem involving the evaluation of treatment guidelines for glycemic control of patients with type 2 diabetes, where natural variation in a patient's glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is modeled as a Markov chain, and the associated TPMs are subject to uncertainty.
Radford, Isolde H; Fersht, Alan R; Settanni, Giovanni
2011-06-09
Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of the TZ1 beta-hairpin peptide have been carried out using an implicit model for the solvent. The trajectories have been analyzed using a Markov state model defined on the projections along two significant observables and a kinetic network approach. The Markov state model allowed for an unbiased identification of the metastable states of the system, and provided the basis for commitment probability calculations performed on the kinetic network. The kinetic network analysis served to extract the main transition state for folding of the peptide and to validate the results from the Markov state analysis. The combination of the two techniques allowed for a consistent and concise characterization of the dynamics of the peptide. The slowest relaxation process identified is the exchange between variably folded and denatured species, and the second slowest process is the exchange between two different subsets of the denatured state which could not be otherwise identified by simple inspection of the projected trajectory. The third slowest process is the exchange between a fully native and a partially folded intermediate state characterized by a native turn with a proximal backbone H-bond, and frayed side-chain packing and termini. The transition state for the main folding reaction is similar to the intermediate state, although a more native like side-chain packing is observed.
Pathway-based Analysis of the Hidden Genetic Heterogeneities in Cancers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaolei Zhao
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Many cancers apparently showing similar phenotypes are actually distinct at the molecular level, leading to very different responses to the same treatment. It has been recently demonstrated that pathway-based approaches are robust and reliable for genetic analysis of cancers. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether such function-based approaches are useful in deciphering molecular heterogeneities in cancers. Therefore, we aimed to test this possibility in the present study. First, we used a NCI60 dataset to validate the ability of pathways to correctly partition samples. Next, we applied the proposed method to identify the hidden subtypes in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL. Finally, the clinical significance of the identified subtypes was verified using survival analysis. For the NCI60 dataset, we achieved highly accurate partitions that best fit the clinical cancer phenotypes. Subsequently, for a DLBCL dataset, we identified three hidden subtypes that showed very different 10-year overall survival rates (90%, 46% and 20% and were highly significantly (P = 0.008 correlated with the clinical survival rate. This study demonstrated that the pathway-based approach is promising for unveiling genetic heterogeneities in complex human diseases.
Solan, Eilon; Vieille, Nicolas
2015-01-01
We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the transition matrix. We define a new closeness relation between transition matrices, and use graph-theoretic techniques, in contrast with the matrix analysis techniques previously used.
Paas, L.J.; Bijmolt, T.H.A.; Vermunt, J.K.
2004-01-01
A recent development in marketing research concerns the incorporation of dynamics in consumer segmentation.This paper extends the latent class Markov model, a suitable technique for conducting dynamic segmentation, in order to facilitate lead generation.We demonstrate the application of the latent
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for statistical analysis of RF photonic devices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Piels, Molly; Zibar, Darko
2016-01-01
uncertainty is shown to give unsatisfactory and incorrect results due to the nonlinear relationship between the circuit parameters and the measured data. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are shown to provide superior results, both for individual devices and for assessing within-die variation...
Model Reduction via Principe Component Analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods
Gong, R.; Chen, J.; Hoversten, M. G.; Luo, J.
2011-12-01
Geophysical and hydrogeological inverse problems often include a large number of unknown parameters, ranging from hundreds to millions, depending on parameterization and problems undertaking. This makes inverse estimation and uncertainty quantification very challenging, especially for those problems in two- or three-dimensional spatial domains. Model reduction technique has the potential of mitigating the curse of dimensionality by reducing total numbers of unknowns while describing the complex subsurface systems adequately. In this study, we explore the use of principal component analysis (PCA) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods for model reduction through the use of synthetic datasets. We compare the performances of three different but closely related model reduction approaches: (1) PCA methods with geometric sampling (referred to as 'Method 1'), (2) PCA methods with MCMC sampling (referred to as 'Method 2'), and (3) PCA methods with MCMC sampling and inclusion of random effects (referred to as 'Method 3'). We consider a simple convolution model with five unknown parameters as our goal is to understand and visualize the advantages and disadvantages of each method by comparing their inversion results with the corresponding analytical solutions. We generated synthetic data with noise added and invert them under two different situations: (1) the noised data and the covariance matrix for PCA analysis are consistent (referred to as the unbiased case), and (2) the noise data and the covariance matrix are inconsistent (referred to as biased case). In the unbiased case, comparison between the analytical solutions and the inversion results show that all three methods provide good estimates of the true values and Method 1 is computationally more efficient. In terms of uncertainty quantification, Method 1 performs poorly because of relatively small number of samples obtained, Method 2 performs best, and Method 3 overestimates uncertainty due to inclusion
Cebiroglu, Gökhan; Horst, Ulrich
2012-01-01
We cross-sectionally analyze the presence of aggregated hidden depth and trade volume in the S&P 500 and identify its key determinants. We find that the spread is the main predictor for a stock’s hidden dimension, both in terms of traded and posted liquidity. Our findings moreover suggest that large hidden orders are associated with larger transaction costs, higher price impact and increased volatility. In particular, as large hidden orders fail to attract (latent) liquidity to the market, hi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weimin Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The standard approach to studying financial industrial agglomeration is to construct measures of the degree of agglomeration within financial industry. But such measures often fail to exploit the convergence or divergence of financial agglomeration. In this paper, we apply Markov chain approach to diagnose the convergence of financial agglomeration in China based on the location quotient coefficients across the provincial regions over 1993–2011. The estimation of Markov transition probability matrix offers more detailed insights into the mechanics of financial agglomeration evolution process in China during the research period. The results show that the spatial evolution of financial agglomeration changes faster in the period of 2003–2011 than that in the period of 1993–2002. Furthermore, there exists a very uneven financial development patterns, but there is regional convergence for financial agglomeration in China.
Analysis of chemical warfare using a transient semi-Markov formulation.
Kierzewski, Michael O.
1988-01-01
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis proposes an analytical model to test various assumptions about conventional/chemical warfare. A unit's status in conventional/chemical combat is modeled as states in a semi-Markov chain with transient and absorbing states. The effects of differing chemical threat levels, availability of decontamination assets and assumed personnel degradation rates on expected unit life and capabilities are tested. The ...
Spectral analysis of multi-dimensional self-similar Markov processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Modarresi, N; Rezakhah, S
2010-01-01
In this paper we consider a discrete scale invariant (DSI) process {X(t), t in R + } with scale l > 1. We consider a fixed number of observations in every scale, say T, and acquire our samples at discrete points α k , k in W, where α is obtained by the equality l = α T and W = {0, 1, ...}. We thus provide a discrete time scale invariant (DT-SI) process X(.) with the parameter space {α k , k in W}. We find the spectral representation of the covariance function of such a DT-SI process. By providing the harmonic-like representation of multi-dimensional self-similar processes, spectral density functions of them are presented. We assume that the process {X(t), t in R + } is also Markov in the wide sense and provide a discrete time scale invariant Markov (DT-SIM) process with the above scheme of sampling. We present an example of the DT-SIM process, simple Brownian motion, by the above sampling scheme and verify our results. Finally, we find the spectral density matrix of such a DT-SIM process and show that its associated T-dimensional self-similar Markov process is fully specified by {R H j (1), R j H (0), j = 0, 1, ..., T - 1}, where R H j (τ) is the covariance function of jth and (j + τ)th observations of the process.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safetly, Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)
2008-07-01
In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.
2008-01-01
In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)
Wei, Zhouchao; Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Zhang, Wei; Kingni, Sifeu Takougang; Akgül, Akif
2018-04-01
Hidden hyperchaotic attractors can be generated with three positive Lyapunov exponents in the proposed 5D hyperchaotic Burke-Shaw system with only one stable equilibrium. To the best of our knowledge, this feature has rarely been previously reported in any other higher-dimensional systems. Unidirectional linear error feedback coupling scheme is used to achieve hyperchaos synchronisation, which will be estimated by using two indicators: the normalised average root-mean squared synchronisation error and the maximum cross-correlation coefficient. The 5D hyperchaotic system has been simulated using a specially designed electronic circuit and viewed on an oscilloscope, thereby confirming the results of the numerical integration. In addition, fractional-order hidden hyperchaotic system will be considered from the following three aspects: stability, bifurcation analysis and FPGA implementation. Such implementations in real time represent hidden hyperchaotic attractors with important consequences for engineering applications.
Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pavel Náplava
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.
Silva, M Z; Gouyon, R; Lepoutre, F
2003-06-01
Preliminary results of hidden corrosion detection in aircraft aluminum structures using a noncontact laser based ultrasonic technique are presented. A short laser pulse focused to a line spot is used as a broadband source of ultrasonic guided waves in an aluminum 2024 sample cut from an aircraft structure and prepared with artificially corroded circular areas on its back surface. The out of plane surface displacements produced by the propagating ultrasonic waves were detected with a heterodyne Mach-Zehnder interferometer. Time-frequency analysis of the signals using a continuous wavelet transform allowed the identification of the generated Lamb modes by comparison with the calculated dispersion curves. The presence of back surface corrosion was detected by noting the loss of the S(1) mode near its cutoff frequency. This method is applicable to fast scanning inspection techniques and it is particularly suited for early corrosion detection.
Regeneration and general Markov chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimir V. Kalashnikov
1994-01-01
Full Text Available Ergodicity, continuity, finite approximations and rare visits of general Markov chains are investigated. The obtained results permit further quantitative analysis of characteristics, such as, rates of convergence, continuity (measured as a distance between perturbed and non-perturbed characteristics, deviations between Markov chains, accuracy of approximations and bounds on the distribution function of the first visit time to a chosen subset, etc. The underlying techniques use the embedding of the general Markov chain into a wide sense regenerative process with the help of splitting construction.
Quadratic Variation by Markov Chains
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Horel, Guillaume
We introduce a novel estimator of the quadratic variation that is based on the the- ory of Markov chains. The estimator is motivated by some general results concerning filtering contaminated semimartingales. Specifically, we show that filtering can in prin- ciple remove the effects of market...... microstructure noise in a general framework where little is assumed about the noise. For the practical implementation, we adopt the dis- crete Markov chain model that is well suited for the analysis of financial high-frequency prices. The Markov chain framework facilitates simple expressions and elegant analyti...
Analysis of Streamline Separation at Infinity Using Time-Discrete Markov Chains.
Reich, W; Scheuermann, G
2012-12-01
Existing methods for analyzing separation of streamlines are often restricted to a finite time or a local area. In our paper we introduce a new method that complements them by allowing an infinite-time-evaluation of steady planar vector fields. Our algorithm unifies combinatorial and probabilistic methods and introduces the concept of separation in time-discrete Markov-Chains. We compute particle distributions instead of the streamlines of single particles. We encode the flow into a map and then into a transition matrix for each time direction. Finally, we compare the results of our grid-independent algorithm to the popular Finite-Time-Lyapunov-Exponents and discuss the discrepancies.
Analysis of aerial survey data on Florida manatee using Markov chain Monte Carlo.
Craig, B A; Newton, M A; Garrott, R A; Reynolds, J E; Wilcox, J R
1997-06-01
We assess population trends of the Atlantic coast population of Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris, by reanalyzing aerial survey data collected between 1982 and 1992. To do so, we develop an explicit biological model that accounts for the method by which the manatees are counted, the mammals' movement between surveys, and the behavior of the population total over time. Bayesian inference, enabled by Markov chain Monte Carlo, is used to combine the survey data with the biological model. We compute marginal posterior distributions for all model parameters and predictive distributions for future counts. Several conclusions, such as a decreasing population growth rate and low sighting probabilities, are consistent across different prior specifications.
Derivation of Markov processes that violate detailed balance
Lee, Julian
2018-03-01
Time-reversal symmetry of the microscopic laws dictates that the equilibrium distribution of a stochastic process must obey the condition of detailed balance. However, cyclic Markov processes that do not admit equilibrium distributions with detailed balance are often used to model systems driven out of equilibrium by external agents. I show that for a Markov model without detailed balance, an extended Markov model can be constructed, which explicitly includes the degrees of freedom for the driving agent and satisfies the detailed balance condition. The original cyclic Markov model for the driven system is then recovered as an approximation at early times by summing over the degrees of freedom for the driving agent. I also show that the widely accepted expression for the entropy production in a cyclic Markov model is actually a time derivative of an entropy component in the extended model. Further, I present an analytic expression for the entropy component that is hidden in the cyclic Markov model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thadeu Keller Filho
2006-09-01
Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar se as ocorrências de dias secos e chuvosos são condicionalmente dependentes da seqüência dos três dias secos e chuvosos anteriores, numa zona pluviometricamente homogênea, por meio da cadeia não-homogênea de Markov de terceira ordem. Os resultados mostraram que as probabilidades diárias de transição podem ser adequadamente estimadas, com base em dados agregados bimestralmente, seguidas de interpolação por meio de funções sinusoidais. Além disso, evidenciou-se que, naquela zona, as ocorrências diárias de chuva são condicionalmente dependentes da seqüência de dias secos e chuvosos nos três dias anteriores. A cadeia não-homogênea de Markov de terceira ordem é um importante instrumento para a análise da dependência entre as seqüências de dias secos e chuvosos em determinadas regiões.The aim of this work was to verify if the occurrence of dry and wet days are conditionally dependent on the sequences of the dry and wet three preceding days, in a rainfall homogeneous area, using the nonhomogeneous third-order Markov chains. The results showed that daily transition probabilities can be properly estimated from two-month aggregate data, and then adjusted by means of sinusoidal functions. Besides, it was evidenced that everyday rain events in that area are conditionally dependent on the sequences of the dry and wet three days previous to occurrences. The third-order nonhomogeneous Markov chains are an important instrument for the analysis of the dependence between sequences of dry and wet days in certain areas.
Markov processes and controlled Markov chains
Filar, Jerzy; Chen, Anyue
2002-01-01
The general theory of stochastic processes and the more specialized theory of Markov processes evolved enormously in the second half of the last century. In parallel, the theory of controlled Markov chains (or Markov decision processes) was being pioneered by control engineers and operations researchers. Researchers in Markov processes and controlled Markov chains have been, for a long time, aware of the synergies between these two subject areas. However, this may be the first volume dedicated to highlighting these synergies and, almost certainly, it is the first volume that emphasizes the contributions of the vibrant and growing Chinese school of probability. The chapters that appear in this book reflect both the maturity and the vitality of modern day Markov processes and controlled Markov chains. They also will provide an opportunity to trace the connections that have emerged between the work done by members of the Chinese school of probability and the work done by the European, US, Central and South Ameri...
Robust Dynamics and Control of a Partially Observed Markov Chain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elliott, R. J.; Malcolm, W. P.; Moore, J. P.
2007-01-01
In a seminal paper, Martin Clark (Communications Systems and Random Process Theory, Darlington, 1977, pp. 721-734, 1978) showed how the filtered dynamics giving the optimal estimate of a Markov chain observed in Gaussian noise can be expressed using an ordinary differential equation. These results offer substantial benefits in filtering and in control, often simplifying the analysis and an in some settings providing numerical benefits, see, for example Malcolm et al. (J. Appl. Math. Stoch. Anal., 2007, to appear).Clark's method uses a gauge transformation and, in effect, solves the Wonham-Zakai equation using variation of constants. In this article, we consider the optimal control of a partially observed Markov chain. This problem is discussed in Elliott et al. (Hidden Markov Models Estimation and Control, Applications of Mathematics Series, vol. 29, 1995). The innovation in our results is that the robust dynamics of Clark are used to compute forward in time dynamics for a simplified adjoint process. A stochastic minimum principle is established
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chagas Moura, Márcio das; Azevedo, Rafael Valença; Droguett, Enrique López; Chaves, Leandro Rego; Lins, Isis Didier
2016-01-01
Occupational accidents pose several negative consequences to employees, employers, environment and people surrounding the locale where the accident takes place. Some types of accidents correspond to low frequency-high consequence (long sick leaves) events, and then classical statistical approaches are ineffective in these cases because the available dataset is generally sparse and contain censored recordings. In this context, we propose a Bayesian population variability method for the estimation of the distributions of the rates of accident and recovery. Given these distributions, a Markov-based model will be used to estimate the uncertainty over the expected number of accidents and the work time loss. Thus, the use of Bayesian analysis along with the Markov approach aims at investigating future trends regarding occupational accidents in a workplace as well as enabling a better management of the labor force and prevention efforts. One application example is presented in order to validate the proposed approach; this case uses available data gathered from a hydropower company in Brazil. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate rates of accident and recovery. • The model requires simple data likely to be available in the company database. • These results show the proposed model is not too sensitive to the prior estimates.
Water exchange traded funds: A study on idiosyncratic risk using Markov switching analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gurudeo Anand Tularam
2016-12-01
Full Text Available We investigate the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and return among four water exchange traded funds—PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio, Power Shares Global Water, First Trust ISE Water Index Fund, and Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index ETF using the Markov switching model for the period 2007–2015. The generated transition probabilities in this paper show that there is a high and low probability of switching between Regimes 1 and 3, respectively. Moreover, we find that the idiosyncratic risk for most of the exchange traded funds move from low volatility (Regime 2 to very low volatility (Regime 1 and 3. Our study also identify that the beta coefficients are positive and entire values are less than 1. Thus, it seems that water investment has a lower systematic risk and a positive effect on the water exchange traded index funds returns during different regimes.
Data Model Approach And Markov Chain Based Analysis Of Multi-Level Queue Scheduling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Diwakar Shukla
2010-01-01
Full Text Available There are many CPU scheduling algorithms inliterature like FIFO, Round Robin, Shortest-Job-First and so on.The Multilevel-Queue-Scheduling is superior to these due to itsbetter management of a variety of processes. In this paper, aMarkov chain model is used for a general setup of Multilevelqueue-scheduling and the scheduler is assumed to performrandom movement on queue over the quantum of time.Performance of scheduling is examined through a rowdependent data model. It is found that with increasing value of αand d, the chance of system going over the waiting state reduces.At some of the interesting combinations of α and d, it diminishesto zero, thereby, provides us some clue regarding better choice ofqueues over others for high priority jobs. It is found that ifqueue priorities are added in the scheduling intelligently thenbetter performance could be obtained. Data model helpschoosing appropriate preferences.
Dependability analysis of systems modeled by non-homogeneous Markov chains
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Platis, Agapios; Limnios, Nikolaos; Le Du, Marc
1998-09-01
The case of time non-homogeneous Markov systems in discrete time is studied in this article. In order to have measures adapted to this kind of systems, some reliability and performability measures are formulated, such as reliability, availability, maintainability and different time variables including new indicators more dedicated to electrical systems like instantaneous expected load curtailed and the expected energy not supplied on a time interval. The previous indicators are also formulated in the case of cyclic chains where asymptotic results can be obtained. The interest of taking into account hazard rate time variation, is to get more accurate and more instructive indicators but also be able to access new performability indicators that cannot be obtained by classical methods. To illustrate this, an example from an Electricite De France electrical substation is solved.
A methodology for stochastic analysis of share prices as Markov chains with finite states.
Mettle, Felix Okoe; Quaye, Enoch Nii Boi; Laryea, Ravenhill Adjetey
2014-01-01
Price volatilities make stock investments risky, leaving investors in critical position when uncertain decision is made. To improve investor evaluation confidence on exchange markets, while not using time series methodology, we specify equity price change as a stochastic process assumed to possess Markov dependency with respective state transition probabilities matrices following the identified state pace (i.e. decrease, stable or increase). We established that identified states communicate, and that the chains are aperiodic and ergodic thus possessing limiting distributions. We developed a methodology for determining expected mean return time for stock price increases and also establish criteria for improving investment decision based on highest transition probabilities, lowest mean return time and highest limiting distributions. We further developed an R algorithm for running the methodology introduced. The established methodology is applied to selected equities from Ghana Stock Exchange weekly trading data.
MARAS - a computer code for semi-Markov reliability analysis of alternating systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Kwang Nam; Cho, Nam Zin
1989-01-01
It is now recognized that current testing and maintenance requirements invoke too many inadvertent reactor trips and that operating staff must devote significant amount of time and effort to comply with the requirements. With this recognition, the value and the impact of the proposed changes in the allowed outage time (AOT) and surveillance test interval(STI) are evaluated for the alternating system. Because of the testing and AOT requirements, the alternating system exhibits semi-Markovian characteristics which change states in accordance with a Markov chain but take a nonexponentially distributed amount of time between changes. It is observed from the results that there is an optimal point that gives lowest core damage probability and that the optimal point depends on input parameters. With these results, we can conclude that the methodology developed in this study can be applied to the existing alternating systems to evaluate accurately the various alternatives in the technical specifications
Approximate quantum Markov chains
Sutter, David
2018-01-01
This book is an introduction to quantum Markov chains and explains how this concept is connected to the question of how well a lost quantum mechanical system can be recovered from a correlated subsystem. To achieve this goal, we strengthen the data-processing inequality such that it reveals a statement about the reconstruction of lost information. The main difficulty in order to understand the behavior of quantum Markov chains arises from the fact that quantum mechanical operators do not commute in general. As a result we start by explaining two techniques of how to deal with non-commuting matrices: the spectral pinching method and complex interpolation theory. Once the reader is familiar with these techniques a novel inequality is presented that extends the celebrated Golden-Thompson inequality to arbitrarily many matrices. This inequality is the key ingredient in understanding approximate quantum Markov chains and it answers a question from matrix analysis that was open since 1973, i.e., if Lieb's triple ma...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Piriou, Pierre-Yves; Faure, Jean-Marc; Lesage, Jean-Jacques
2017-01-01
This paper presents a modeling framework that permits to describe in an integrated manner the structure of the critical system to analyze, by using an enriched fault tree, the dysfunctional behavior of its components, by means of Markov processes, and the reconfiguration strategies that have been planned to ensure safety and availability, with Moore machines. This framework has been developed from BDMP (Boolean logic Driven Markov Processes), a previous framework for dynamic repairable systems. First, the contribution is motivated by pinpointing the limitations of BDMP to model complex reconfiguration strategies and the failures of the control of these strategies. The syntax and semantics of GBDMP (Generalized Boolean logic Driven Markov Processes) are then formally defined; in particular, an algorithm to analyze the dynamic behavior of a GBDMP model is developed. The modeling capabilities of this framework are illustrated on three representative examples. Last, qualitative and quantitative analysis of GDBMP models highlight the benefits of the approach.
Rahman, P. A.; D'K Novikova Freyre Shavier, G.
2018-03-01
This scientific paper is devoted to the analysis of the mean time to data loss of redundant disk arrays RAID-6 with alternation of data considering different failure rates of disks both in normal state of the disk array and in degraded and rebuild states, and also nonzero time of the disk replacement. The reliability model developed by the authors on the basis of the Markov chain and obtained calculation formula for estimation of the mean time to data loss (MTTDL) of the RAID-6 disk arrays are also presented. At last, the technique of estimation of the initial reliability parameters and examples of calculation of the MTTDL of the RAID-6 disk arrays for the different numbers of disks are also given.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Masoud Rabbani
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The theory of constraints is an approach for production planning and control, which emphasizes on the constraints in the system to increase throughput. The theory of constraints is often referred to as Drum-Buffer-Rope developed originally by Goldratt. Drum-Buffer-Rope uses the drum or constraint to create a schedule based on the finite capacity of the first bottleneck. Because of complexity of the job shop environment, Drum-Buffer-Rope material flow management has very little attention to job shop environment. The objective of this paper is to apply the Drum-Buffer-Rope technique in the job shop environment using a Markov chain analysis to compare traditional method with Drum-Buffer-Rope. Four measurement parameters were considered and the result showed the advantage of Drum-Buffer-Rope approach compared with traditional one.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Durbin, Richard; Eddy, Sean; Krogh, Anders Stærmose
This book provides an up-to-date and tutorial-level overview of sequence analysis methods, with particular emphasis on probabilistic modelling. Discussed methods include pairwise alignment, hidden Markov models, multiple alignment, profile searches, RNA secondary structure analysis, and phylogene...
Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models.
King, Ruth; Langrock, Roland
2016-06-01
We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process involves the assumption that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using, for example, a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example, on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.
Mathematical modeling, analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation of Ebola epidemics
Tulu, Thomas Wetere; Tian, Boping; Wu, Zunyou
Ebola virus infection is a severe infectious disease with the highest case fatality rate which become the global public health treat now. What makes the disease the worst of all is no specific effective treatment available, its dynamics is not much researched and understood. In this article a new mathematical model incorporating both vaccination and quarantine to study the dynamics of Ebola epidemic has been developed and comprehensively analyzed. The existence as well as uniqueness of the solution to the model is also verified and the basic reproduction number is calculated. Besides, stability conditions are also checked and finally simulation is done using both Euler method and one of the top ten most influential algorithm known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Different rates of vaccination to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individual over time and that of quarantine are discussed. The results show that quarantine and vaccination are very effective ways to control Ebola epidemic. From our study it was also seen that there is less possibility of an individual for getting Ebola virus for the second time if they survived his/her first infection. Last but not least real data has been fitted to the model, showing that it can used to predict the dynamic of Ebola epidemic.
Analysis of the trajectory surface hopping method from the Markov state model perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Akimov, Alexey V.; Wang, Linjun; Prezhdo, Oleg V.; Trivedi, Dhara
2015-01-01
We analyze the applicability of the seminal fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) method of Tully to modeling quantum transitions between electronic states that are not coupled directly, in the processes such as Auger recombination. We address the known deficiency of the method to describe such transitions by introducing an alternative definition for the surface hopping probabilities, as derived from the Markov state model perspective. We show that the resulting transition probabilities simplify to the quantum state populations derived from the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, reducing to the rapidly switching surface hopping approach of Tully and Preston. The resulting surface hopping scheme is simple and appeals to the fundamentals of quantum mechanics. The computational approach is similar to the FSSH method of Tully, yet it leads to a notably different performance. We demonstrate that the method is particularly accurate when applied to superexchange modeling. We further show improved accuracy of the method, when applied to one of the standard test problems. Finally, we adapt the derived scheme to atomistic simulation, combine it with the time-domain density functional theory, and show that it provides the Auger energy transfer timescales which are in good agreement with experiment, significantly improving upon other considered techniques. (author)
Timing of bariatric surgery for severely obese adolescents: a Markov decision-analysis.
Stroud, Andrea M; Parker, Devin; Croitoru, Daniel P
2016-05-01
Although controversial, bariatric surgery is increasingly being performed in adolescents. We developed a model to simulate the effect of timing of gastric bypass in obese adolescents on quantity and quality of life. A Markov state-transition model was constructed comparing two treatment strategies: gastric bypass surgery at age 16 versus delayed surgery in adulthood. The model simulated a hypothetical cohort of adolescents with body mass index of 45kg/m(2). Model inputs were derived from current literature. The main outcome measure was quality and quantity of life, measured using quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). For females, early gastric bypass surgery was favored by 2.02 QALYs compared to delaying surgery until age 35 (48.91 vs. 46.89 QALYs). The benefit was even greater for males, where early surgery was favored by 2.9 QALYs (48.30 vs. 45.40 QALYs). The absolute benefit of surgery at age 16 increased; the later surgery was delayed into adulthood. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that adult surgery was favored only when the values for adverse events were unrealistically high. In our model, early gastric bypass in obese adolescents improved both quality and quantity of life. These findings are useful for surgeons and pediatricians when counseling adolescents considering weight loss surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Dynamic of foreign direct investment in the states of Mexico: An analysis of Markov's spatial chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado
2017-01-01
Full Text Available El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en analizar la evolución de la distribución espacial y temporal de la inversión extranjera directa (IED en las entidades federativas de México. La literatura que aborda el análisis de la IED en México es abundante y diversa; sin embargo, se argumenta que el análisis de la distribución espacio-temporal de la IED condicionada a la interacción espacial en México, aún está ausente. En este sentido, mediante la aplicación del enfoque de cadenas de Markov espaciales propuesto por Rey (2001, se encuentra que la divergencia regional en la captación de IED es un proceso que parece afianzarse cuando se analizan diferentes cortes en el tiempo. En particular, durante el periodo entre 2006 y 2013 el proceso de divergencia hacia estratos de mayor captación estaría impulsado por las entidades federativas que interactúan con entidades contiguas ubicadas en estratos de captación de IED menores.
Semi-Markov reliability analysis of alternating systems in a nuclear power plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, K.N.; Cho, N.Z.
1992-01-01
Nuclear power plant operations that follow current testing and maintenance requirements sometimes result in inadvertent reactor trips, and operating staffs devote a significant amount of time and effort in complying with these requirements. Significant benefits could result from changes in current technical specifications. In this paper the benefits and impacts of changes in allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs) are evaluated for an alternative system that consists of multiple trains and whose operation is alternated train by train. because of testing and AOT requirements, the alternating system exhibits semi-Markovian characteristics that change states in accordance with a Markov process but take an arbitrarily distributed amount of time between changes. The state probabilities are quantified by memorizing the necessary number of past state probabilities. Two measures of plant performance, namely, core damage probability and plant unavailability (reactor downtime), were calculated for the evaluation of AOT and STI. Results indicate that there is an optimal point that gives the lowest core damage probability and that the methodology developed in this study can be applied to existing alternating systems to evaluate accurately the various alternatives in the technical specifications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trejo Kristal K.
2015-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper we present the extraproximal method for computing the Stackelberg/Nash equilibria in a class of ergodic controlled finite Markov chains games. We exemplify the original game formulation in terms of coupled nonlinear programming problems implementing the Lagrange principle. In addition, Tikhonov’s regularization method is employed to ensure the convergence of the cost-functions to a Stackelberg/Nash equilibrium point. Then, we transform the problem into a system of equations in the proximal format. We present a two-step iterated procedure for solving the extraproximal method: (a the first step (the extra-proximal step consists of a “prediction” which calculates the preliminary position approximation to the equilibrium point, and (b the second step is designed to find a “basic adjustment” of the previous prediction. The procedure is called the “extraproximal method” because of the use of an extrapolation. Each equation in this system is an optimization problem for which the necessary and efficient condition for a minimum is solved using a quadratic programming method. This solution approach provides a drastically quicker rate of convergence to the equilibrium point. We present the analysis of the convergence as well the rate of convergence of the method, which is one of the main results of this paper. Additionally, the extraproximal method is developed in terms of Markov chains for Stackelberg games. Our goal is to analyze completely a three-player Stackelberg game consisting of a leader and two followers. We provide all the details needed to implement the extraproximal method in an efficient and numerically stable way. For instance, a numerical technique is presented for computing the first step parameter (λ of the extraproximal method. The usefulness of the approach is successfully demonstrated by a numerical example related to a pricing oligopoly model for airlines companies.
ANALYSIS AND VALIDATION OF GRID DEM GENERATION BASED ON GAUSSIAN MARKOV RANDOM FIELD
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. J. Aguilar
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Digital Elevation Models (DEMs are considered as one of the most relevant geospatial data to carry out land-cover and land-use classification. This work deals with the application of a mathematical framework based on a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF to interpolate grid DEMs from scattered elevation data. The performance of the GMRF interpolation model was tested on a set of LiDAR data (0.87 points/m2 provided by the Spanish Government (PNOA Programme over a complex working area mainly covered by greenhouses in Almería, Spain. The original LiDAR data was decimated by randomly removing different fractions of the original points (from 10% to up to 99% of points removed. In every case, the remaining points (scattered observed points were used to obtain a 1 m grid spacing GMRF-interpolated Digital Surface Model (DSM whose accuracy was assessed by means of the set of previously extracted checkpoints. The GMRF accuracy results were compared with those provided by the widely known Triangulation with Linear Interpolation (TLI. Finally, the GMRF method was applied to a real-world case consisting of filling the LiDAR-derived DSM gaps after manually filtering out non-ground points to obtain a Digital Terrain Model (DTM. Regarding accuracy, both GMRF and TLI produced visually pleasing and similar results in terms of vertical accuracy. As an added bonus, the GMRF mathematical framework makes possible to both retrieve the estimated uncertainty for every interpolated elevation point (the DEM uncertainty and include break lines or terrain discontinuities between adjacent cells to produce higher quality DTMs.
SPREEN, M; ZWAAGSTRA, R
1994-01-01
Populations, such as heroin and cocaine users, the homeless and the like (hidden populations), are among the most difficult populations to which to apply classic random sampling procedures. A frequently used data collection method for these hidden populations is the snowball procedure. The
Cushion, Christopher J.; Jones, Robyn L.
2014-01-01
This article draws on the theoretical concepts of Pierre Bourdieu to provide an explanatory account of how socialisation and the hidden curriculum within coaching practice contribute toward the formation of social identities and powerful schemes of internalised dispositions. Drawing on a 10 month ethnography within professional football, the…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Qiu
2013-01-01
unified Markov jump model. The random time delays and packet dropouts existed in feedback communication link are modeled by two independent Markov chains; the resulting closed-loop system is described by a new Markovian jump linear system (MJLS with Markov delays. Sufficient conditions of the stochastic stability for NCSs is obtained by constructing a novel Lyapunov functional, and the mode-dependent output feedback controller design method is presented based on linear matrix inequality (LMI technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Markov stochasticity coordinates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eliazar, Iddo
2017-01-01
Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.
Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Henda, Noomene Ben; Mayr, Richard
2007-01-01
We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In part...
Markov stochasticity coordinates
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com
2017-01-15
Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.
Activity recognition using semi-Markov models on real world smart home datasets
van Kasteren, T.L.M.; Englebienne, G.; Kröse, B.J.A.
2010-01-01
Accurately recognizing human activities from sensor data recorded in a smart home setting is a challenging task. Typically, probabilistic models such as the hidden Markov model (HMM) or conditional random fields (CRF) are used to map the observed sensor data onto the hidden activity states. A
Minsley, Burke J.; Burton, Bethany L.; Ikard, Scott; Powers, Michael H.
2010-01-01
Geophysical field investigations have been carried out at the Hidden Dam in Raymond, California for the purpose of better understanding the hydrogeology and seepage-related conditions at the site. Known seepage areas on the northwest right abutment area of the downstream side of the dam are documented by Cedergren. Subsequent to the 1980 seepage study, a drainage blanket with a subdrain system was installed to mitigate downstream seepage. Flow net analysis provided by Cedergren suggests that the primary seepage mechanism involves flow through the dam foundation due to normal reservoir pool elevations, which results in upflow that intersects the ground surface in several areas on the downstream side of the dam. In addition to the reservoir pool elevations and downstream surface topography, flow is also controlled by the existing foundation geology as well as the presence or absence of a horizontal drain within the downstream portion of the dam. The purpose of the current geophysical work is to (1) identify present-day seepage areas that may not be evident due to the effectiveness of the drainage blanket in redirecting seepage water, and (2) provide information about subsurface geologic structures that may control subsurface flow and seepage. These tasks are accomplished through the use of two complementary electrical geophysical methods, self-potentials (SP) and direct-current (DC) electrical resistivity, which have been commonly utilized in dam-seepage studies. SP is a passive method that is primarily sensitive to active subsurface groundwater flow and seepage, whereas DC resistivity is an active-source method that is sensitive to changes in subsurface lithology and groundwater saturation. The focus of this field campaign was on the downstream area on the right abutment, or northwest side of the dam, as this is the main area of interest regarding seepage. Two exploratory self-potential lines were also collected on the downstream left abutment of the dam to identify
Markov Networks in Evolutionary Computation
Shakya, Siddhartha
2012-01-01
Markov networks and other probabilistic graphical modes have recently received an upsurge in attention from Evolutionary computation community, particularly in the area of Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs). EDAs have arisen as one of the most successful experiences in the application of machine learning methods in optimization, mainly due to their efficiency to solve complex real-world optimization problems and their suitability for theoretical analysis. This book focuses on the different steps involved in the conception, implementation and application of EDAs that use Markov networks, and undirected models in general. It can serve as a general introduction to EDAs but covers also an important current void in the study of these algorithms by explaining the specificities and benefits of modeling optimization problems by means of undirected probabilistic models. All major developments to date in the progressive introduction of Markov networks based EDAs are reviewed in the book. Hot current researc...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meshach Tettey
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract This study develops an objective rainfall pattern assessment through Markov chain analysis using daily rainfall data from 1980 to 2010, a period of 30 years, for five cities or towns along the south eastern coastal belt of Ghana; Cape Coast, Accra, Akuse, Akatsi and Keta. Transition matrices were computed for each town and each month using the conditional probability of rain or no rain on a particular day given that it rained or did not rain on the previous day. The steady state transition matrices and the steady state probability vectors were also computed for each town and each month. It was found that, the rainy or dry season pattern observed using the monthly steady state rainfall vectors tended to reflect the monthly rainfall time series trajectory. Overall, the probability of rain on any day was low to average: Keta 0.227, Akuse 0.382, Accra 0.467, Cape Coast, 0.50 and Akatsi 0.50. In particular, for Accra, the rainy season was observed to be in the months of May to June and September to October. We also determined that the probability of rainfall generally tended to increase from east to west along the south eastern coast of Ghana.
Zomer, Ella; Owen, Alice; Magliano, Dianna J; Liew, Danny; Reid, Christopher M
2012-01-01
Objective To model the long term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Design Best case scenario analysis using a Markov model. Setting Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Participants 2013 people with hypertension who met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive therapy. Main outcome measures ...
Markov dynamic models for long-timescale protein motion.
Chiang, Tsung-Han
2010-06-01
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established method for studying protein motion at the atomic scale. However, it is computationally intensive and generates massive amounts of data. One way of addressing the dual challenges of computation efficiency and data analysis is to construct simplified models of long-timescale protein motion from MD simulation data. In this direction, we propose to use Markov models with hidden states, in which the Markovian states represent potentially overlapping probabilistic distributions over protein conformations. We also propose a principled criterion for evaluating the quality of a model by its ability to predict long-timescale protein motions. Our method was tested on 2D synthetic energy landscapes and two extensively studied peptides, alanine dipeptide and the villin headpiece subdomain (HP-35 NleNle). One interesting finding is that although a widely accepted model of alanine dipeptide contains six states, a simpler model with only three states is equally good for predicting long-timescale motions. We also used the constructed Markov models to estimate important kinetic and dynamic quantities for protein folding, in particular, mean first-passage time. The results are consistent with available experimental measurements.
Markov dynamic models for long-timescale protein motion.
Chiang, Tsung-Han; Hsu, David; Latombe, Jean-Claude
2010-01-01
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established method for studying protein motion at the atomic scale. However, it is computationally intensive and generates massive amounts of data. One way of addressing the dual challenges of computation efficiency and data analysis is to construct simplified models of long-timescale protein motion from MD simulation data. In this direction, we propose to use Markov models with hidden states, in which the Markovian states represent potentially overlapping probabilistic distributions over protein conformations. We also propose a principled criterion for evaluating the quality of a model by its ability to predict long-timescale protein motions. Our method was tested on 2D synthetic energy landscapes and two extensively studied peptides, alanine dipeptide and the villin headpiece subdomain (HP-35 NleNle). One interesting finding is that although a widely accepted model of alanine dipeptide contains six states, a simpler model with only three states is equally good for predicting long-timescale motions. We also used the constructed Markov models to estimate important kinetic and dynamic quantities for protein folding, in particular, mean first-passage time. The results are consistent with available experimental measurements.
Armstrong, Edward P; Malone, Daniel C; Erder, M Haim
2008-04-01
To estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life weeks of duloxetine and escitalopram. A probabilistic Markov cost-utility analysis with a time horizon of 1 year using data from placebo controlled randomized clinical trials for both products. Efficacy was defined as remission of depressive symptoms and converted to utilities. Side effects were incorporated using rates from clinical trials and converted to utilities to define treatment effectiveness. The effectiveness outcome was quality adjusted life weeks (QALWs). Estimates of effectiveness (efficacy and side effects) used beta distributions and costs used gamma distributions. Using a managed care perspective, medication costs and physician office visits were included in the model, along with costs associated with treatment failure. Antidepressant costs were obtained using average wholesale price minus 20%. Physician visit costs were obtained from the 2006 US Medicare fee schedule for physician services. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted using 1000 trials with both first- and second-order sampling. Over 1 year, the estimated mean quality-adjusted life weeks was 41.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 40.7-41.3) for escitalopram and 38.2 (95% CI: 37.9-38.4) for duloxetine. The mean annual total medical cost for escitalopram was $907 (95% CI: $894-$919) and $1633 (95% CI: $1614-$1654) for duloxetine. Limitations to this analysis include using separate studies examining the efficacy and adverse events of either escitalopram or duloxetine, assuming the switch, augmentation, and titration rates for duloxetine to be similar to escitalopram, and using utility estimates from published literature for the antidepressant adverse events. This analysis suggests that escitalopram was more effective in terms of QALWs and less costly than duloxetine for treatment of depression.
Grabski
2014-01-01
Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in System Reliability and Maintenance is a modern view of discrete state space and continuous time semi-Markov processes and their applications in reliability and maintenance. The book explains how to construct semi-Markov models and discusses the different reliability parameters and characteristics that can be obtained from those models. The book is a useful resource for mathematicians, engineering practitioners, and PhD and MSc students who want to understand the basic concepts and results of semi-Markov process theory. Clearly defines the properties and
Pires, Antonio A; Ramirez, Jorge L; Galetti, Pedro M; Troy, Waldo P; Freitas, Patricia D
2017-06-01
The genus Zungaro contains some of the largest catfish in South America. Two valid species are currently recognized: Zungaro jahu, inhabiting the Paraná and Paraguay basins, and Zungaro zungaro, occurring in the Amazonas and Orinoco basins. Analysing Zungaro specimens from the Amazonas, Orinoco, Paraguay and Paraná basins, based on the sequencing of COI and D-loop, we found at least three MOTUs, indicating the existence of hidden diversity within this fish group. Considering the ecological and economic values of this fish, our results are surely welcomed for its conservation, disclosing new findings on its diversity and pointing out the necessity for a detailed taxonomic revision.
Gatesy, John; Springer, Mark S
2014-11-01
Large datasets are required to solve difficult phylogenetic problems that are deep in the Tree of Life. Currently, two divergent systematic methods are commonly applied to such datasets: the traditional supermatrix approach (= concatenation) and "shortcut" coalescence (= coalescence methods wherein gene trees and the species tree are not co-estimated). When applied to ancient clades, these contrasting frameworks often produce congruent results, but in recent phylogenetic analyses of Placentalia (placental mammals), this is not the case. A recent series of papers has alternatively disputed and defended the utility of shortcut coalescence methods at deep phylogenetic scales. Here, we examine this exchange in the context of published phylogenomic data from Mammalia; in particular we explore two critical issues - the delimitation of data partitions ("genes") in coalescence analysis and hidden support that emerges with the combination of such partitions in phylogenetic studies. Hidden support - increased support for a clade in combined analysis of all data partitions relative to the support evident in separate analyses of the various data partitions, is a hallmark of the supermatrix approach and a primary rationale for concatenating all characters into a single matrix. In the most extreme cases of hidden support, relationships that are contradicted by all gene trees are supported when all of the genes are analyzed together. A valid fear is that shortcut coalescence methods might bypass or distort character support that is hidden in individual loci because small gene fragments are analyzed in isolation. Given the extensive systematic database for Mammalia, the assumptions and applicability of shortcut coalescence methods can be assessed with rigor to complement a small but growing body of simulation work that has directly compared these methods to concatenation. We document several remarkable cases of hidden support in both supermatrix and coalescence paradigms and argue
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Justesen, Jørn
2005-01-01
A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly.......A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kieffer-Kristensen, Rikke; Johansen, Karen Lise Gaardsvig
2013-01-01
to participate. RESULTS: All children were affected by their parents' ABI and the altered family situation. The children's expressions led the authors to identify six themes, including fear of losing the parent, distress and estrangement, chores and responsibilities, hidden loss, coping and support. The main......PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to listen to and learn from children showing high levels of post-traumatic stress symptoms after parental acquired brain injury (ABI), in order to achieve an in-depth understanding of the difficulties the children face in their everyday lives...... finding indicates that the children experienced numerous losses, many of which were often suppressed or neglected by the children to protect the ill parents. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicated that the children seemed to make a special effort to hide their feelings of loss and grief in order to protect...
Kaya, Yılmaz
2015-09-01
This paper proposes a novel approach to detect epilepsy seizures by using Electroencephalography (EEG), which is one of the most common methods for the diagnosis of epilepsy, based on 1-Dimension Local Binary Pattern (1D-LBP) and grey relational analysis (GRA) methods. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate and validate a novel approach, which is a computer-based quantitative EEG analyzing method and based on grey systems, aimed to help decision-maker. In this study, 1D-LBP, which utilizes all data points, was employed for extracting features in raw EEG signals, Fisher score (FS) was employed to select the representative features, which can also be determined as hidden patterns. Additionally, GRA is performed to classify EEG signals through these Fisher scored features. The experimental results of the proposed approach, which was employed in a public dataset for validation, showed that it has a high accuracy in identifying epileptic EEG signals. For various combinations of epileptic EEG, such as A-E, B-E, C-E, D-E, and A-D clusters, 100, 96, 100, 99.00 and 100% were achieved, respectively. Also, this work presents an attempt to develop a new general-purpose hidden pattern determination scheme, which can be utilized for different categories of time-varying signals.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arafan Traore
2018-04-01
Full Text Available In this study, land-cover change in the capital Conakry of Guinea was simulated using the integrated Cellular Automata and Markov model (CA-Markov in the Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS. Historical land-cover change information was derived from 1986, 2000 and 2016 Landsat data. Using the land-cover change maps of 1986 and 2000, the land-cover change map for 2016 was simulated based on the Markov model in IDRISSI software (Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA. The simulated result was compared with the 2016 land-cover map for validation using the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC. The ROC result showed a very strong agreement between the two maps. From this result, the land-cover change map for 2025 was simulated using CA-Markov model. The result has indicated that the proportion of the urban area was 49% in 2016, and it is expected to increase to 52% by 2025, while vegetation will decrease from 35% in 2016 to 32% in 2025. This study suggests that the rapid land-cover change has been led by both rapid population growth and extreme poverty in rural areas, which will result in migration into Conakry. The results of this study will provide bases for assessing the sustainability and the management of the urban area and for taking actions to mitigate the degradation of the urban environment.
Dawid, H.; Keoula, M.Y.; Kort, Peter
2017-01-01
This paper presents a numerical method for the characterization of Markov-perfect equilibria of symmetric differential games exhibiting coexisting stable steady states. The method relying on the calculation of ‘local value functions’ through collocation in overlapping parts of the state space, is
Analysis and forecast of employees’ mobility on the labor market in Romania using Markov chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mariana Balan
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The mobility of labor, defined as responsiveness and adaptation of persons or groups of persons on the challenges of the social and economic environment is therefore a social phenomenon depending on time and space. A high mobility increases opportunities for workers to find a job and employers to find persons with an adequate level of skills, thus boosting employment and economic growth. In recent years, in Romania there has been an accentuation of existing gaps, compared with the European Union countries, as regards the occupational structure of employment. In this context, the paper proposes an analysis of the evolution of labor mobility in the main sectors of the Romanian economy. Also, it was pursued the Markovian modeling of employees’ mobility on the labor market and its forecast in Romania, under the impact of rapid and profound social and economic changes, and the correlation between them as well, with a view to make forecasts of the Romanian economy evolution in the short term.
a Probability Model for Drought Prediction Using Fusion of Markov Chain and SAX Methods
Jouybari-Moghaddam, Y.; Saradjian, M. R.; Forati, A. M.
2017-09-01
Drought is one of the most powerful natural disasters which are affected on different aspects of the environment. Most of the time this phenomenon is immense in the arid and semi-arid area. Monitoring and prediction the severity of the drought can be useful in the management of the natural disaster caused by drought. Many indices were used in predicting droughts such as SPI, VCI, and TVX. In this paper, based on three data sets (rainfall, NDVI, and land surface temperature) which are acquired from MODIS satellite imagery, time series of SPI, VCI, and TVX in time limited between winters 2000 to summer 2015 for the east region of Isfahan province were created. Using these indices and fusion of symbolic aggregation approximation and hidden Markov chain drought was predicted for fall 2015. For this purpose, at first, each time series was transformed into the set of quality data based on the state of drought (5 group) by using SAX algorithm then the probability matrix for the future state was created by using Markov hidden chain. The fall drought severity was predicted by fusion the probability matrix and state of drought severity in summer 2015. The prediction based on the likelihood for each state of drought includes severe drought, middle drought, normal drought, severe wet and middle wet. The analysis and experimental result from proposed algorithm show that the product of this algorithm is acceptable and the proposed algorithm is appropriate and efficient for predicting drought using remote sensor data.
Duality and hidden symmetries in interacting particle systems
Giardinà, C.; Kurchan, J.; Redig, F.H.J.; Vafayi, K.
2009-01-01
In the context of Markov processes, both in discrete and continuous setting, we show a general relation between duality functions and symmetries of the generator. If the generator can be written in the form of a Hamiltonian of a quantum spin system, then the "hidden" symmetries are easily derived.
Hidden Curriculum: An Analytical Definition
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Reza Andarvazh
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Background: The concept of hidden curriculum was first used by Philip Jackson in 1968, and Hafferty brought this concept to the medical education. Many of the subjects that medical students learn are attributed to this curriculum. So far several definitions have been presented for the hidden curriculum, which on the one hand made this concept richer, and on the other hand, led to confusion and ambiguity.This paper tries to provide a clear and comprehensive definition of it.Methods: In this study, concept analysis of McKenna method was used. Using keywords and searching in the databases, 561 English and 26 Persian references related to the concept was found, then by limitingthe research scope, 125 abstracts and by finding more relevant references, 55 articles were fully studied.Results: After analyzing the definitions by McKenna method, the hidden curriculum is defined as follows: The hidden curriculum is a hidden, powerful, intrinsic in organizational structure and culture and sometimes contradictory message, conveyed implicitly and tacitly in the learning environment by structural and human factors and its contents includes cultural habits and customs, norms, values, belief systems, attitudes, skills, desires and behavioral and social expectations can have a positive or negative effect, unplanned, neither planners nor teachers, nor learners are aware of it. The ultimate consequence of the hidden curriculum includes reproducing the existing class structure, socialization, and familiarizing learners for transmission and joining the professional world.Conclusion: Based on the concept analysis, we arrived at an analytical definition of the hidden curriculum that could be useful for further studies in this area.Keywords: CONCEPT ANALYSIS, HIDDEN CURRICULUM, MCKENNA’S METHOD
Tani, Yuji
2016-01-01
Background Consistent with the “attention, interest, desire, memory, action” (AIDMA) model of consumer behavior, patients collect information about available medical institutions using the Internet to select information for their particular needs. Studies of consumer behavior may be found in areas other than medical institution websites. Such research uses Web access logs for visitor search behavior. At this time, research applying the patient searching behavior model to medical institution website visitors is lacking. Objective We have developed a hospital website search behavior model using a Bayesian approach to clarify the behavior of medical institution website visitors and determine the probability of their visits, classified by search keyword. Methods We used the website data access log of a clinic of internal medicine and gastroenterology in the Sapporo suburbs, collecting data from January 1 through June 31, 2011. The contents of the 6 website pages included the following: home, news, content introduction for medical examinations, mammography screening, holiday person-on-duty information, and other. The search keywords we identified as best expressing website visitor needs were listed as the top 4 headings from the access log: clinic name, clinic name + regional name, clinic name + medical examination, and mammography screening. Using the search keywords as the explaining variable, we built a binomial probit model that allows inspection of the contents of each purpose variable. Using this model, we determined a beta value and generated a posterior distribution. We performed the simulation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods with a noninformation prior distribution for this model and determined the visit probability classified by keyword for each category. Results In the case of the keyword “clinic name,” the visit probability to the website, repeated visit to the website, and contents page for medical examination was positive. In the case of the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Bacchetti
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fibrosis stages from liver biopsies reflect liver damage from hepatitis C infection, but analysis is challenging due to their ordered but non-numeric nature, infrequent measurement, misclassification, and unknown infection times. METHODS: We used a non-Markov multistate model, accounting for misclassification, with multiple imputation of unknown infection times, applied to 1062 participants of whom 159 had multiple biopsies. Odds ratios (OR quantified the estimated effects of covariates on progression risk at any given time. RESULTS: Models estimated that progression risk decreased the more time participants had already spent in the current stage, African American race was protective (OR 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.95, p = 0.018, and older current age increased risk (OR 1.33 per decade, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.54, p = 0.0002. When controlled for current age, older age at infection did not appear to increase risk (OR 0.92 per decade, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 1.79, p = 0.80. There was a suggestion that co-infection with human immunodeficiency virus increased risk of progression in the era of highly active antiretroviral treatment beginning in 1996 (OR 2.1, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 4.4, p = 0.059. Other examined risk factors may influence progression risk, but evidence for or against this was weak due to wide confidence intervals. The main results were essentially unchanged using different assumed misclassification rates or imputation of age of infection. DISCUSSION: The analysis avoided problems inherent in simpler methods, supported the previously suspected protective effect of African American race, and suggested that current age rather than age of infection increases risk. Decreasing risk of progression with longer time already spent in a stage was also previously found for post-transplant progression. This could reflect varying disease activity, with recent progression indicating
Observation uncertainty in reversible Markov chains.
Metzner, Philipp; Weber, Marcus; Schütte, Christof
2010-09-01
In many applications one is interested in finding a simplified model which captures the essential dynamical behavior of a real life process. If the essential dynamics can be assumed to be (approximately) memoryless then a reasonable choice for a model is a Markov model whose parameters are estimated by means of Bayesian inference from an observed time series. We propose an efficient Monte Carlo Markov chain framework to assess the uncertainty of the Markov model and related observables. The derived Gibbs sampler allows for sampling distributions of transition matrices subject to reversibility and/or sparsity constraints. The performance of the suggested sampling scheme is demonstrated and discussed for a variety of model examples. The uncertainty analysis of functions of the Markov model under investigation is discussed in application to the identification of conformations of the trialanine molecule via Robust Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+) .
Managing Hidden Costs of Offshoring
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Marcus M.; Pedersen, Torben
2014-01-01
This chapter investigates the concept of the ‘hidden costs’ of offshoring, i.e. unexpected offshoring costs exceeding the initially expected costs. Due to the highly undefined nature of these costs, we position our analysis towards the strategic responses of firms’ realisation of hidden costs....... In this regard, we argue that a major response to the hidden costs of offshoring is the identification and utilisation of strategic mechanisms in the organisational design to eventually achieving system integration in a globally dispersed and disaggregated organisation. This is heavily moderated by a learning......-by-doing process, where hidden costs motivate firms and their employees to search for new and better knowledge on how to successfully manage the organisation. We illustrate this thesis based on the case of the LEGO Group....
Subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fagnola, Franco; Rebolledo, Rolando
2002-01-01
This article introduces a concept of subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup, in view of characterizing the support projection of a stationary state in terms of the semigroup generator. These results, together with those of our previous article [J. Math. Phys. 42, 1296 (2001)], lead to a method for proving the existence of faithful stationary states. This is often crucial in the analysis of ergodic properties of quantum Markov semigroups. The method is illustrated by applications to physical models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sheam-Chyun Lin
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Since the inlet and outlet of hidden ceiling fan are almost located at the same Plane; thus, an improper housing may cause inhale-return phenomenon which significantly affects its power consumption and performance. In this study, a comprehensive investigation by numerical and experimental techniques was used to predict and identify the flow pattern, airflow rate, efficiency, and noise for ceiling fans with different design parameters. The results showed that the unique inhale-return phenomenon happens for an inappropriate housing. Several key parameters, such as fan guard, housing ring, inlet-to-outlet area ratio, and blockage height, are evaluated for finding out the criterion to avoid the inhale-return flow. Consequently the study finds that fan guard changes the airflow to a wider distribution with a lower velocity. A minimum blockage distance and a maximum height of ring-plate are set at 80 mm and 30 mm, respectively. Also, it is suggested that the inlet area must be bigger than the outlet area. Moreover, all the parameters show the same trend under various rotational speeds. In conclusion, this systematic investigation not only provides the fan engineer's design ability to avoid the inhale-return phenomenon, but also the predicting capability on its aerodynamic and acoustic performances.
Dong, Hengjin; Buxton, Martin
2006-01-01
The objective of this study is to apply a Markov model to compare cost-effectiveness of total knee replacement (TKR) using computer-assisted surgery (CAS) with that of TKR using a conventional manual method in the absence of formal clinical trial evidence. A structured search was carried out to identify evidence relating to the clinical outcome, cost, and effectiveness of TKR. Nine Markov states were identified based on the progress of the disease after TKR. Effectiveness was expressed by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The simulation was carried out initially for 120 cycles of a month each, starting with 1,000 TKRs. A discount rate of 3.5 percent was used for both cost and effectiveness in the incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Then, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out using a Monte Carlo approach with 10,000 iterations. Computer-assisted TKR was a long-term cost-effective technology, but the QALYs gained were small. After the first 2 years, the incremental cost per QALY of computer-assisted TKR was dominant because of cheaper and more QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was sensitive to the "effect of CAS," to the CAS extra cost, and to the utility of the state "Normal health after primary TKR," but it was not sensitive to utilities of other Markov states. Both probabilistic and deterministic analyses produced similar cumulative serious or minor complication rates and complex or simple revision rates. They also produced similar ICERs. Compared with conventional TKR, computer-assisted TKR is a cost-saving technology in the long-term and may offer small additional QALYs. The "effect of CAS" is to reduce revision rates and complications through more accurate and precise alignment, and although the conclusions from the model, even when allowing for a full probabilistic analysis of uncertainty, are clear, the "effect of CAS" on the rate of revisions awaits long-term clinical evidence.
janssen, Anja; Segers, Johan
2013-01-01
The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regularly varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper we extend this fact to Markov chains with multivariate regularly varying marginal distributions in Rd. We analyze both the forward and the backward tail process and show that they mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint relation. In ...
Biological sequence analysis: probabilistic models of proteins and nucleic acids
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Durbin, Richard
1998-01-01
... analysis methods are now based on principles of probabilistic modelling. Examples of such methods include the use of probabilistically derived score matrices to determine the signiﬁcance of sequence alignments, the use of hidden Markov models as the basis for proﬁle searches to identify distant members of sequence families, and the inference...
Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Shapira
2011-06-01
Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.
Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall and ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2017) 126: 33 ... ogy, climate change, glaciology and crop models in agriculture. Different ... In areas where local topography strongly influences precipitation .... (vii) cloud amount, (viii) cloud type and (ix) sun shine hours.
Hidden Markov Models for Time Series An Introduction Using R
Zucchini, Walter
2009-01-01
Illustrates the flexibility of HMMs as general-purpose models for time series data. This work presents an overview of HMMs for analyzing time series data, from continuous-valued, circular, and multivariate series to binary data, bounded and unbounded counts and categorical observations.
Hidden Markov Model as a Framework for Situational Awareness
2008-07-01
line of sight unlike the PIR sensor – they complement each other. Magnetic sensor (B-field sensor): We used both Fluxgate and coil magnetometers ...The former has low frequency response while the coil magnetometer provides high frequency response. A total of six sensors: three fluxgate ...Computer is turned off Figure 7: Fluxgate magnetometer output in x-axis 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 Time (sec
Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models
African Journals Online (AJOL)
System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...
Hidden Markov Models for indirect classification of occupant behaviour
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liisberg, Jon Anders Reichert; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Bloem, H.
2016-01-01
Even for similar residential buildings, a huge variability in the energy consumption can be observed. This variability is mainly due to the different behaviours of the occupants and this impacts the thermal (temperature setting, window opening, etc.) as well as the electrical (appliances, TV......, computer, etc.) consumption. It is very seldom to find direct observations of occupant presence and behaviour in residential buildings. However, given the increasing use of smart metering, the opportunity and potential for indirect observation and classification of occupants’ behaviour is possible...... sequence of states was determined (global decoding). From reconstruction of the states, dependencies like ambient air temperature were investigated. Combined with an occupant survey, this was used to classify/interpret the states as (1) absent or asleep, (2) home, medium consumption and (3) home, high...
Parametric Hidden Markov Models for Recognition and Synthesis of Movements
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herzog, Dennis; Krüger, Volker; Grest, Daniel
2008-01-01
In humanoid robotics, the recognition and synthesis of parametric movements plays an extraordinary role for robot human interaction. Such a parametric movement is a movement of a particular type (semantic), for example, similar pointing movements performed at different table-top positions....... For understanding the whole meaning of a movement of a human, the recognition of its type, likewise its parameterization are important. Only both together convey the whole meaning. Vice versa, for mimicry, the synthesis of movements for the motor control of a robot needs to be parameterized, e.g., by the relative...... the applicability for online recognition based on very noisy 3D tracking data. The use of a parametric representation of movements is shown in a robot demo, where a robot removes objects from a table as demonstrated by an advisor. The synthesis for motor control is performed for arbitrary table-top positions....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raymond, V; Mandel, I; Kalogera, V; Van der Sluys, M V; Roever, C; Christensen, N
2010-01-01
Gravitational-wave signals from inspirals of binary compact objects (black holes and neutron stars) are primary targets of the ongoing searches by ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) interferometers (LIGO, Virgo and GEO-600). We present parameter estimation results from our Markov-chain Monte Carlo code SPINspiral on signals from binaries with precessing spins. Two data sets are created by injecting simulated GW signals either into synthetic Gaussian noise or into LIGO detector data. We compute the 15-dimensional probability-density functions (PDFs) for both data sets, as well as for a data set containing LIGO data with a known, loud artefact ('glitch'). We show that the analysis of the signal in detector noise yields accuracies similar to those obtained using simulated Gaussian noise. We also find that while the Markov chains from the glitch do not converge, the PDFs would look consistent with a GW signal present in the data. While our parameter estimation results are encouraging, further investigations into how to differentiate an actual GW signal from noise are necessary.
Hartfiel, Darald J
1998-01-01
In this study extending classical Markov chain theory to handle fluctuating transition matrices, the author develops a theory of Markov set-chains and provides numerous examples showing how that theory can be applied. Chapters are concluded with a discussion of related research. Readers who can benefit from this monograph are those interested in, or involved with, systems whose data is imprecise or that fluctuate with time. A background equivalent to a course in linear algebra and one in probability theory should be sufficient.
Sweeting, M J; Farewell, V T; De Angelis, D
2010-05-20
In many chronic diseases it is important to understand the rate at which patients progress from infection through a series of defined disease states to a clinical outcome, e.g. cirrhosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals or AIDS in HIV-infected individuals. Typically data are obtained from longitudinal studies, which often are observational in nature, and where disease state is observed only at selected examinations throughout follow-up. Transition times between disease states are therefore interval censored. Multi-state Markov models are commonly used to analyze such data, but rely on the assumption that the examination times are non-informative, and hence the examination process is ignorable in a likelihood-based analysis. In this paper we develop a Markov model that relaxes this assumption through the premise that the examination process is ignorable only after conditioning on a more regularly observed auxiliary variable. This situation arises in a study of HCV disease progression, where liver biopsies (the examinations) are sparse, irregular, and potentially informative with respect to the transition times. We use additional information on liver function tests (LFTs), commonly collected throughout follow-up, to inform current disease state and to assume an ignorable examination process. The model developed has a similar structure to a hidden Markov model and accommodates both the series of LFT measurements and the partially latent series of disease states. We show through simulation how this model compares with the commonly used ignorable Markov model, and a Markov model that assumes the examination process is non-ignorable. Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Confluence reduction for Markov automata
Timmer, Mark; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jaco; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette
2016-01-01
Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. As expected, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of these models. We therefore introduce confluence reduction for Markov automata, a powerful reduction
Kostyalik, Diána; Vas, Szilvia; Kátai, Zita; Kitka, Tamás; Gyertyán, István; Bagdy, Gyorgy; Tóthfalusi, László
2014-11-19
Shortened rapid eye movement (REM) sleep latency and increased REM sleep amount are presumed biological markers of depression. These sleep alterations are also observable in several animal models of depression as well as during the rebound sleep after selective REM sleep deprivation (RD). Furthermore, REM sleep fragmentation is typically associated with stress procedures and anxiety. The selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants reduce REM sleep time and increase REM latency after acute dosing in normal condition and even during REM rebound following RD. However, their therapeutic outcome evolves only after weeks of treatment, and the effects of chronic treatment in REM-deprived animals have not been studied yet. Chronic escitalopram- (10 mg/kg/day, osmotic minipump for 24 days) or vehicle-treated rats were subjected to a 3-day-long RD on day 21 using the flower pot procedure or kept in home cage. On day 24, fronto-parietal electroencephalogram, electromyogram and motility were recorded in the first 2 h of the passive phase. The observed sleep patterns were characterized applying standard sleep metrics, by modelling the transitions between sleep phases using Markov chains and by spectral analysis. Based on Markov chain analysis, chronic escitalopram treatment attenuated the REM sleep fragmentation [accelerated transition rates between REM and non-REM (NREM) stages, decreased REM sleep residence time between two transitions] during the rebound sleep. Additionally, the antidepressant avoided the frequent awakenings during the first 30 min of recovery period. The spectral analysis showed that the SSRI prevented the RD-caused elevation in theta (5-9 Hz) power during slow-wave sleep. Conversely, based on the aggregate sleep metrics, escitalopram had only moderate effects and it did not significantly attenuate the REM rebound after RD. In conclusion, chronic SSRI treatment is capable of reducing several effects on sleep which might be the consequence
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Albright, Carl H.; /Northern Illinois U. /Fermilab; Rodejohann, Werner; /Heidelberg, Max Planck Inst.
2008-04-01
To address the issue of whether tri-bimaximal mixing (TBM) is a softly-broken hidden or an accidental symmetry, we adopt a model-independent analysis in which we perturb a neutrino mass matrix leading to TBM in the most general way but leave the three texture zeros of the diagonal charged lepton mass matrix unperturbed. We compare predictions for the perturbed neutrino TBM parameters with those obtained from typical SO(10) grand unified theories with a variety of flavor symmetries. Whereas SO(10) GUTs almost always predict a normal mass hierarchy for the light neutrinos, TBM has a priori no preference for neutrino masses. We find, in particular for the latter, that the value of |U{sub e3}| is very sensitive to the neutrino mass scale and ordering. Observation of |U{sub e3}|{sup 2} > 0.001 to 0.01 within the next few years would be incompatible with softly-broken TBM and a normal mass hierarchy and would suggest that the apparent TBM symmetry is an accidental symmetry instead. No such conclusions can be drawn for the inverted and quasi-degenerate hierarchy spectra.
Kumar, Girish; Jain, Vipul; Gandhi, O. P.
2018-03-01
Maintenance helps to extend equipment life by improving its condition and avoiding catastrophic failures. Appropriate model or mechanism is, thus, needed to quantify system availability vis-a-vis a given maintenance strategy, which will assist in decision-making for optimal utilization of maintenance resources. This paper deals with semi-Markov process (SMP) modeling for steady state availability analysis of mechanical systems that follow condition-based maintenance (CBM) and evaluation of optimal condition monitoring interval. The developed SMP model is solved using two-stage analytical approach for steady-state availability analysis of the system. Also, CBM interval is decided for maximizing system availability using Genetic Algorithm approach. The main contribution of the paper is in the form of a predictive tool for system availability that will help in deciding the optimum CBM policy. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for a centrifugal pump.
Sociology of Hidden Curriculum
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alireza Moradi
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper reviews the concept of hidden curriculum in the sociological theories and wants to explain sociological aspects of formation of hidden curriculum. The main question concentrates on the theoretical approaches in which hidden curriculum is explained sociologically.For this purpose it was applied qualitative research methodology. The relevant data include various sociological concepts and theories of hidden curriculum collected by the documentary method. The study showed a set of rules, procedures, relationships and social structure of education have decisive role in the formation of hidden curriculum. A hidden curriculum reinforces by existed inequalities among learners (based on their social classes or statues. There is, in fact, a balance between the learner's "knowledge receptions" with their "inequality proportion".The hidden curriculum studies from different major sociological theories such as Functionalism, Marxism and critical theory, Symbolic internationalism and Feminism. According to the functionalist perspective a hidden curriculum has a social function because it transmits social values. Marxists and critical thinkers correlate between hidden curriculum and the totality of social structure. They depicts that curriculum prepares learners for the exploitation in the work markets. Symbolic internationalism rejects absolute hegemony of hidden curriculum on education and looks to the socialization as a result of interaction between learner and instructor. Feminism theory also considers hidden curriculum as a vehicle which legitimates gender stereotypes.
Process Algebra and Markov Chains
Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.
This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study
Process algebra and Markov chains
Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, J.P.
2001-01-01
This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
be obtained as a limiting value of a sample path of a suitable ... makes a mathematical model of chance and deals with the problem by .... Is the Markov chain aperiodic? It is! Here is how you can see it. Suppose that after you do the cut, you hold the top half in your right hand, and the bottom half in your left. Then there.
Composable Markov Building Blocks
Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.; Prade, H.; Subrahmanian, V.S.
2007-01-01
In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models and only one model applies at a time (activity in one model coincides with non-activity in the other models), these models can be joined together into one. Under certain conditions, nearly all
Composable Markov Building Blocks
Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.
2007-01-01
In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models, these models can be joined together under the constraint that there can only be one activity at a time, i.e. the activities of one model coincide with non-activity in the other models. Under
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 7; Issue 3. Markov Chain Monte Carlo - Examples. Arnab Chakraborty. General Article Volume 7 Issue 3 March 2002 pp 25-34. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/007/03/0025-0034. Keywords.
Lappalainen, Sirpa; Lahelma, Elina; Pehkonen, Leila; Isopahkala-Bouret, Ulpukka
2012-01-01
This article analyses how Finnish vocational teachers make sense of the meanings of gender in their work. The context of the study consists of the two most gender segregated environments of vocational education: the female-dominated Sector of Health and Social Services and the male-dominated Sector of Technology and Transport. Our analysis draws…
Hidden Neural Networks: A Framework for HMM/NN Hybrids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Riis, Søren Kamaric; Krogh, Anders Stærmose
1997-01-01
This paper presents a general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMM) and neural networks (NN). In the new framework called hidden neural networks (HNN) the usual HMM probability parameters are replaced by neural network outputs. To ensure a probabilistic interpretation the HNN is nor...... HMMs on TIMIT continuous speech recognition benchmarks. On the task of recognizing five broad phoneme classes an accuracy of 84% is obtained compared to 76% for a standard HMM. Additionally, we report a preliminary result of 69% accuracy on the TIMIT 39 phoneme task...
Brandi, Giovanni; Di Girolamo, Stefania; Farioli, Andrea; de Rosa, Francesco; Curti, Stefania; Pinna, Antonio Daniele; Ercolani, Giorgio; Violante, Francesco Saverio; Biasco, Guido; Mattioli, Stefano
2013-01-01
Purposes We conducted a case?control analysis to explore the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and cholangiocarcinoma (CC). Methods The study was based on historical data from 155 consecutive patients with CC [69 intrahepatic CC (ICC) and 86 extrahepatic CC (ECC)] referred to Sant?Orsola-Malpighi University Hospital between 2006 and 2010. The cases were individually matched by calendar period of birth, sex, and region of residence to historical hospital and population cont...
The hidden radiation chemistry in plasma modification and XPS analysis of polymer surfaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
George, G.A.; Le, T.T.; Elms, F.M.; Wood, B.J.
1996-01-01
Full text: The surface modification of polymers using plasma treatments is being widely researched to achieve changes in the surface energetics and consequent wetting and reactivity for a range of applications. These include i) adhesion for polymer bonding and composite material fabrication and ii) biocompatibility of polymers when used as orthopedic implants, catheters and prosthetics. A low pressure rf plasma produces a variety of species from the introduced gas which may react with the surface of a hydrocarbon polymer, such as polyethylene. In the case of 0 2 and H 2 0, these species include oxygen atoms, singlet molecular oxygen and hydroxyl radicals, all of which may oxidise and, depending on their energy, ablate the polymer surface. In order to better understand the reactive species formed both in and downstream from a plasma and the relative contributions of oxidation and ablation, self-assembled monolayers of n-alkane thiols on gold are being used as well characterised substrates for quantitative X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The identification and quantification of oxidised carbon species on plasma treated polymers from broad, asymmetric XPS signals is difficult, so derivatisation is often used to enhance sensitivity and specificity. For example, trifluoroacetic anhydride (TFAA) selectively labels hydroxyl functionality. The surface analysis of a modified polymer surface may be confounded by high energy radiation chemistry which may occur during XPS analysis. Examples include scission of carbon-halogen bonds (as in TFM adducts), decarboxylation and main-chain polyene formation. The extent of free-radical chemistry occurring in polyethylene while undergoing XPS analysis may be seen by both ESR and FT-IR analysis
Viana, Lucas M; O'Malley, Jennifer T; Burgess, Barbara J; Jones, Dianne D; Oliveira, Carlos A C P; Santos, Felipe; Merchant, Saumil N; Liberman, Leslie D; Liberman, M Charles
2015-09-01
Recent animal work has suggested that cochlear synapses are more vulnerable than hair cells in both noise-induced and age-related hearing loss. This synaptopathy is invisible in conventional histopathological analysis, because cochlear nerve cell bodies in the spiral ganglion survive for years, and synaptic analysis requires special immunostaining or serial-section electron microscopy. Here, we show that the same quadruple-immunostaining protocols that allow synaptic counts, hair cell counts, neuronal counts and differentiation of afferent and efferent fibers in mouse can be applied to human temporal bones, when harvested within 9 h post-mortem and prepared as dissected whole mounts of the sensory epithelium and osseous spiral lamina. Quantitative analysis of five "normal" ears, aged 54-89 yrs, without any history of otologic disease, suggests that cochlear synaptopathy and the degeneration of cochlear nerve peripheral axons, despite a near-normal hair cell population, may be an important component of human presbycusis. Although primary cochlear nerve degeneration is not expected to affect audiometric thresholds, it may be key to problems with hearing in noise that are characteristic of declining hearing abilities in the aging ear. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laura Trotta
Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.
Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Wang, Xiujuan; Xu, Fei; Yu, Wenwen
Soil and water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China is important, and soil erosion is a significant issue. In the present study, spatial Markov chains were applied to explore the impacts of the regional context on soil erosion in the Xiangxi River watershed, and Thematic Mapper remote sensing data from 1999 and 2007 were employed. The results indicated that the observed changes in soil erosion were closely related to the soil erosion levels of the surrounding areas. When neighboring regions were not considered, the probability that moderate erosion transformed into slight and severe erosion was 0.8330 and 0.0049, respectively. However, when neighboring regions that displayed intensive erosion were considered, the probabilities were 0.2454 and 0.7513, respectively. Moreover, the different levels of soil erosion in neighboring regions played different roles in soil erosion. If the erosion levels in the neighboring region were lower, the probability of a high erosion class transferring to a lower level was relatively high. In contrast, if erosion levels in the neighboring region were higher, the probability was lower. The results of the present study provide important information for the planning and implementation of soil conservation measures in the study area.
Meissner, Anna M.; Christiansen, Fredrik; Martinez, Emmanuelle; Pawley, Matthew D. M.; Orams, Mark B.; Stockin, Karen A.
2015-01-01
Common dolphins, Delphinus sp., are one of the marine mammal species tourism operations in New Zealand focus on. While effects of cetacean-watching activities have previously been examined in coastal regions in New Zealand, this study is the first to investigate effects of commercial tourism and recreational vessels on common dolphins in an open oceanic habitat. Observations from both an independent research vessel and aboard commercial tour vessels operating off the central and east coast Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand were used to assess dolphin behaviour and record the level of compliance by permitted commercial tour operators and private recreational vessels with New Zealand regulations. Dolphin behaviour was assessed using two different approaches to Markov chain analysis in order to examine variation of responses of dolphins to vessels. Results showed that, regardless of the variance in Markov methods, dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly altered by boat interactions. Dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions and took significantly longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. This research raises concerns about the potential disruption to feeding, a biologically critical behaviour. This may be particularly important in an open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable in abundance. Furthermore, because tourism in this region focuses on common dolphins transiting between adjacent coastal locations, the potential for cumulative effects could exacerbate the local effects demonstrated in this study. While the overall level of compliance by commercial operators was relatively high, non-compliance to the regulations was observed with time restriction, number or speed of vessels interacting with dolphins not being respected. Additionally, prohibited swimming with calves did occur. The effects shown in this study should be carefully considered within conservation management
Jeong, Hyundoo; Qian, Xiaoning; Yoon, Byung-Jun
2016-10-06
Comparative analysis of protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks provides an effective means of detecting conserved functional network modules across different species. Such modules typically consist of orthologous proteins with conserved interactions, which can be exploited to computationally predict the modules through network comparison. In this work, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for comparing PPI networks and effectively predicting the correspondence between proteins, represented as network nodes, that belong to conserved functional modules across the given PPI networks. The basic idea is to estimate the steady-state network flow between nodes that belong to different PPI networks based on a Markov random walk model. The random walker is designed to make random moves to adjacent nodes within a PPI network as well as cross-network moves between potential orthologous nodes with high sequence similarity. Based on this Markov random walk model, we estimate the steady-state network flow - or the long-term relative frequency of the transitions that the random walker makes - between nodes in different PPI networks, which can be used as a probabilistic score measuring their potential correspondence. Subsequently, the estimated scores can be used for detecting orthologous proteins in conserved functional modules through network alignment. Through evaluations based on multiple real PPI networks, we demonstrate that the proposed scheme leads to improved alignment results that are biologically more meaningful at reduced computational cost, outperforming the current state-of-the-art algorithms. The source code and datasets can be downloaded from http://www.ece.tamu.edu/~bjyoon/CUFID .
Meissner, Anna M; Christiansen, Fredrik; Martinez, Emmanuelle; Pawley, Matthew D M; Orams, Mark B; Stockin, Karen A
2015-01-01
Common dolphins, Delphinus sp., are one of the marine mammal species tourism operations in New Zealand focus on. While effects of cetacean-watching activities have previously been examined in coastal regions in New Zealand, this study is the first to investigate effects of commercial tourism and recreational vessels on common dolphins in an open oceanic habitat. Observations from both an independent research vessel and aboard commercial tour vessels operating off the central and east coast Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand were used to assess dolphin behaviour and record the level of compliance by permitted commercial tour operators and private recreational vessels with New Zealand regulations. Dolphin behaviour was assessed using two different approaches to Markov chain analysis in order to examine variation of responses of dolphins to vessels. Results showed that, regardless of the variance in Markov methods, dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly altered by boat interactions. Dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions and took significantly longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. This research raises concerns about the potential disruption to feeding, a biologically critical behaviour. This may be particularly important in an open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable in abundance. Furthermore, because tourism in this region focuses on common dolphins transiting between adjacent coastal locations, the potential for cumulative effects could exacerbate the local effects demonstrated in this study. While the overall level of compliance by commercial operators was relatively high, non-compliance to the regulations was observed with time restriction, number or speed of vessels interacting with dolphins not being respected. Additionally, prohibited swimming with calves did occur. The effects shown in this study should be carefully considered within conservation management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna M Meissner
Full Text Available Common dolphins, Delphinus sp., are one of the marine mammal species tourism operations in New Zealand focus on. While effects of cetacean-watching activities have previously been examined in coastal regions in New Zealand, this study is the first to investigate effects of commercial tourism and recreational vessels on common dolphins in an open oceanic habitat. Observations from both an independent research vessel and aboard commercial tour vessels operating off the central and east coast Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand were used to assess dolphin behaviour and record the level of compliance by permitted commercial tour operators and private recreational vessels with New Zealand regulations. Dolphin behaviour was assessed using two different approaches to Markov chain analysis in order to examine variation of responses of dolphins to vessels. Results showed that, regardless of the variance in Markov methods, dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly altered by boat interactions. Dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions and took significantly longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. This research raises concerns about the potential disruption to feeding, a biologically critical behaviour. This may be particularly important in an open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable in abundance. Furthermore, because tourism in this region focuses on common dolphins transiting between adjacent coastal locations, the potential for cumulative effects could exacerbate the local effects demonstrated in this study. While the overall level of compliance by commercial operators was relatively high, non-compliance to the regulations was observed with time restriction, number or speed of vessels interacting with dolphins not being respected. Additionally, prohibited swimming with calves did occur. The effects shown in this study should be carefully considered within
Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes
Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.
2014-04-01
We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.
Generalized Markov branching models
Li, Junping
2005-01-01
In this thesis, we first considered a modified Markov branching process incorporating both state-independent immigration and resurrection. After establishing the criteria for regularity and uniqueness, explicit expressions for the extinction probability and mean extinction time are presented. The criteria for recurrence and ergodicity are also established. In addition, an explicit expression for the equilibrium distribution is presented.\\ud \\ud We then moved on to investigate the basic proper...
Ragain, Stephen; Ugander, Johan
2016-01-01
As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale---particularly in online domains---there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansio...
Fannes, Mark; Wouters, Jeroen
2012-01-01
We study a quantum process that can be considered as a quantum analogue for the classical Markov process. We specifically construct a version of these processes for free Fermions. For such free Fermionic processes we calculate the entropy density. This can be done either directly using Szeg\\"o's theorem for asymptotic densities of functions of Toeplitz matrices, or through an extension of said theorem to rates of functions, which we present in this article.
Pemodelan Markov Switching Autoregressive
Ariyani, Fiqria Devi; Warsito, Budi; Yasin, Hasbi
2014-01-01
Transition from depreciation to appreciation of exchange rate is one of regime switching that ignored by classic time series model, such as ARIMA, ARCH, or GARCH. Therefore, economic variables are modeled by Markov Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) which consider the regime switching. MLE is not applicable to parameters estimation because regime is an unobservable variable. So that filtering and smoothing process are applied to see the regime probabilities of observation. Using this model, tran...
Hidden costs of a typical embodied energy analysis: Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as a case study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Agostinho, Feni; Siche, Raul
2014-01-01
Worldwide human production systems are tightly coupled to fossil-based energy, the source of which will not be available at low cost in the foreseeable future. Alternative energy sources are being sought for, among which those derived from biomass are considered to have great potential. Brazilian ethanol sugarcane produced at a large scale is being classified in scientific papers and politics as a renewable energy source. However, only the energy return on investment (EROI) and/or the amount of CO 2 released to atmosphere have been considered as indicators of renewability. This work aims to discuss some theoretical points, within an embodied energy analysis, that make its use inappropriate for answering all issues related to the concept of renewability. Emergy accounting (with an “m”) is used as a comparative tool and the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol is evaluated as case study. An EROI of 6.7 for ethanol was obtained, showing that for each unit of “commercial energy” invested within the process, 6.7 units of another kind of energy is obtained – this index shows an excellent value for energy efficiency, but it does not reflect the renewability of ethanol. On the other hand, emergy accounting shows a renewability index of 19%, indicating a low rating for sugarcane ethanol. All scientific methodologies available to assess potential energy sources have their pros and cons, but the analyst must be aware that each methodology supplies different indicators with different meanings. Energy analysts should use methodologies appropriately, avoiding wider conclusions not actually represented by indices calculated. - Highlights: • The renewability discourse of biofuels is discussed focusing on the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol. • Both energy efficiency and CO 2 emitted hardly indicate the renewability of biofuels. • Emergy evaluation is introduced as a potential tool when assessing renewability. • Analysts must use methodologies accordingly and avoid general
A relation between non-Markov and Markov processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hara, H.
1980-01-01
With the aid of a transformation technique, it is shown that some memory effects in the non-Markov processes can be eliminated. In other words, some non-Markov processes are rewritten in a form obtained by the random walk process; the Markov process. To this end, two model processes which have some memory or correlation in the random walk process are introduced. An explanation of the memory in the processes is given. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stairs, Allen
2007-01-01
Recent results by Paul Busch and Adan Cabello claim to show that by appealing to POVMs, non-contextual hidden variables can be ruled out in two dimensions. While the results of Busch and Cabello are mathematically correct, interpretive problems render them problematic as no hidden variable proofs
Mallak, Saed
1996-01-01
Ankara : Department of Mathematics and Institute of Engineering and Sciences of Bilkent University, 1996. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 1996. Includes bibliographical references leaves leaf 29 In thi.s work, we studierl the Ergodicilv of Non-Stationary .Markov chains. We gave several e.xainples with different cases. We proved that given a sec[uence of Markov chains such that the limit of this sec|uence is an Ergodic Markov chain, then the limit of the combination ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weiping Liu
2017-10-01
Full Text Available It is important to determine the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC for analyzing slope seepage and stability under the conditions of rainfall. However, SWCCs exhibit high uncertainty because of complex influencing factors, which has not been previously considered in slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall. This study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty of the SWCC and its effects on the seepage and stability analysis of an unsaturated soil slope under conditions of rainfall. The SWCC model parameters were treated as random variables. An uncertainty evaluation of the parameters was conducted based on the Bayesian approach and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. Observed data from granite residual soil were used to test the uncertainty of the SWCC. Then, different confidence intervals for the model parameters of the SWCC were constructed. The slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall with the SWCC of different confidence intervals was investigated using finite element software (SEEP/W and SLOPE/W. The results demonstrated that SWCC uncertainty had significant effects on slope seepage and stability. In general, the larger the percentile value, the greater the reduction of negative pore-water pressure in the soil layer and the lower the safety factor of the slope. Uncertainties in the model parameters of the SWCC can lead to obvious errors in predicted pore-water pressure profiles and the estimated safety factor of the slope under conditions of rainfall.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Keywords. Markov chain; state space; stationary transition probability; stationary distribution; irreducibility; aperiodicity; stationarity; M-H algorithm; proposal distribution; acceptance probability; image processing; Gibbs sampler.
Volchenkov, Dima; Dawin, Jean René
A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kohlenbach, Ulrich Wilhelm
2002-01-01
We show that the so-called weak Markov's principle (WMP) which states that every pseudo-positive real number is positive is underivable in E-HA + AC. Since allows one to formalize (atl eastl arge parts of) Bishop's constructive mathematics, this makes it unlikely that WMP can be proved within...... the framework of Bishop-style mathematics (which has been open for about 20 years). The underivability even holds if the ine.ective schema of full comprehension (in all types) for negated formulas (in particular for -free formulas) is added, which allows one to derive the law of excluded middle...
Nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes
Silvestrov, Dmitrii
2017-01-01
The book presents new methods of asymptotic analysis for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with a finite phase space. These methods are based on special time-space screening procedures for sequential phase space reduction of semi-Markov processes combined with the systematical use of operational calculus for Laurent asymptotic expansions. Effective recurrent algorithms are composed for getting asymptotic expansions, without and with explicit upper bounds for remainders, for power moments of hitting times, stationary and conditional quasi-stationary distributions for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes. These results are illustrated by asymptotic expansions for birth-death-type semi-Markov processes, which play an important role in various applications. The book will be a useful contribution to the continuing intensive studies in the area. It is an essential reference for theoretical and applied researchers in the field of stochastic processes and their applications that will cont...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
O'Raifeartaigh, L.
1979-01-01
This review describes the principles of hidden gauge symmetry and of its application to the fundamental interactions. The emphasis is on the structure of the theory rather than on the technical details and, in order to emphasise the structure, gauge symmetry and hidden symmetry are first treated as independent phenomena before being combined into a single (hidden gauge symmetric) theory. The main application of the theory is to the weak and electromagnetic interactions of the elementary particles, and although models are used for comparison with experiment and for illustration, emphasis is placed on those features of the application which are model-independent. (author)
Hidden charm molecules in a finite volume
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Albaladejo, M.; Hidalgo-Duque, C.; Nieves, J.; Oset, E.
2014-01-01
In the present paper we address the interaction of charmed mesons in hidden charm channels in a finite box. We use the interaction from a recent model based on heavy quark spin symmetry that predicts molecules of hidden charm in the infinite volume. The energy levels in the box are generated within this model, and several methods for the analysis of these levels ("inverse problem") are investigated. (author)
Adams, Noah S.; Hatton, Tyson W.
2012-01-01
Passage and survival data were collected at McNary Dam between 2006 and 2009. These data have provided critical information for resource managers to implement structural and operational changes designed to improve the survival of juvenile salmonids as they migrate past the dam. Much of the valuable information collected at McNary Dam was in the form of three-dimensional (hereafter referred to as 3-D) tracks of fish movements in the forebay. These data depicted the behavior of multiple species (in three dimensions) during different diel periods, spill conditions, powerhouse operations, and testing of the surface bypass structures (temporary spillway weirs; TSWs). One of the challenges in reporting 3-D results is presenting the information in a manner that allows interested parties to summarize the behavior of many fish over many different conditions across multiple years. To accomplish this, we used a Markov chain analysis to characterize fish movement patterns in the forebay of McNary Dam. The Markov chain analysis allowed us to numerically summarize the behavior of fish in the forebay. This report is the second report published in 2012 that uses this analytical method. The first report included only fish released as part of the annual studies conducted at McNary Dam. This second report includes sockeye salmon that were released as part of studies conducted by the Chelan and Grant County Public Utility Districts at mid-Columbia River dams. The studies conducted in the mid-Columbia used the same transmitters as were used for McNary Dam studies, but transmitter pulse width was different between studies. Additionally, no passive integrated transponder tags were implanted in sockeye salmon. Differences in transmitter pulse width resulted in lower detection probabilities for sockeye salmon at McNary Dam. The absence of passive integrated transponder tags prevented us from determining if fish passed the powerhouse through the juvenile bypass system (JBS) or turbines. To
Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models used to identify forest tree growth components.
Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Guédon, Yann; Lavergne, Christian; Trottier, Catherine
2010-09-01
Tree growth is assumed to be mainly the result of three components: (i) an endogenous component assumed to be structured as a succession of roughly stationary phases separated by marked change points that are asynchronous among individuals, (ii) a time-varying environmental component assumed to take the form of synchronous fluctuations among individuals, and (iii) an individual component corresponding mainly to the local environment of each tree. To identify and characterize these three components, we propose to use semi-Markov switching linear mixed models, i.e., models that combine linear mixed models in a semi-Markovian manner. The underlying semi-Markov chain represents the succession of growth phases and their lengths (endogenous component) whereas the linear mixed models attached to each state of the underlying semi-Markov chain represent-in the corresponding growth phase-both the influence of time-varying climatic covariates (environmental component) as fixed effects, and interindividual heterogeneity (individual component) as random effects. In this article, we address the estimation of Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models in a general framework. We propose a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization like algorithm whose iterations decompose into three steps: (i) sampling of state sequences given random effects, (ii) prediction of random effects given state sequences, and (iii) maximization. The proposed statistical modeling approach is illustrated by the analysis of successive annual shoots along Corsican pine trunks influenced by climatic covariates. © 2009, The International Biometric Society.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Floriani, Elena; Lima, Ricardo; Ourrad, Ouerdia; Spinelli, Lionel
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The flux through a Markov chain of a conserved quantity (mass) is studied. • Mass is supplied by an external source and ends in the absorbing states of the chain. • Meaningful for modeling open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property. • The analytical expression of mass distribution is given for a constant source. • The expression of mass distribution is given for periodic or random sources. - Abstract: In this paper we study the flux through a finite Markov chain of a quantity, that we will call mass, which moves through the states of the chain according to the Markov transition probabilities. Mass is supplied by an external source and accumulates in the absorbing states of the chain. We believe that studying how this conserved quantity evolves through the transient (non-absorbing) states of the chain could be useful for the modelization of open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property.
Zomer, Ella; Owen, Alice; Magliano, Dianna J; Liew, Danny; Reid, Christopher M
2012-05-30
To model the long term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Best case scenario analysis using a Markov model. Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. 2013 people with hypertension who met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive therapy. Treatment effects associated with dark chocolate consumption derived from published meta-analyses were used to determine the absolute number of cardiovascular events with and without treatment. Costs associated with cardiovascular events and treatments were applied to determine the potential amount of funding required for dark chocolate therapy to be considered cost effective. Daily consumption of dark chocolate (polyphenol content equivalent to 100 g of dark chocolate) can reduce cardiovascular events by 85 (95% confidence interval 60 to 105) per 10,000 population treated over 10 years. $A40 (£25; €31; $42) could be cost effectively spent per person per year on prevention strategies using dark chocolate. These results assume 100% compliance and represent a best case scenario. The blood pressure and cholesterol lowering effects of dark chocolate consumption are beneficial in the prevention of cardiovascular events in a population with metabolic syndrome. Daily dark chocolate consumption could be an effective cardiovascular preventive strategy in this population.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Disney, M.
1985-01-01
Astronomer Disney has followed a somewhat different tack than that of most popular books on cosmology by concentrating on the notion of hidden (as in not directly observable by its own radiation) matter in the universe
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Oeverlier, Lasse; Syverson, Paul F
2006-01-01
.... Announced properties include server resistance to distributed DoS. Both the EFF and Reporters Without Borders have issued guides that describe using hidden services via Tor to protect the safety of dissidents as well as to resist censorship...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng, Jonathan L.; Kaplinghat, Manoj; Tu, Huitzu; Yu, Hai-Bo
2009-01-01
Can dark matter be stabilized by charge conservation, just as the electron is in the standard model? We examine the possibility that dark matter is hidden, that is, neutral under all standard model gauge interactions, but charged under an exact (\\rm U)(1) gauge symmetry of the hidden sector. Such candidates are predicted in WIMPless models, supersymmetric models in which hidden dark matter has the desired thermal relic density for a wide range of masses. Hidden charged dark matter has many novel properties not shared by neutral dark matter: (1) bound state formation and Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation after chemical freeze out may reduce its relic density, (2) similar effects greatly enhance dark matter annihilation in protohalos at redshifts of z ∼ 30, (3) Compton scattering off hidden photons delays kinetic decoupling, suppressing small scale structure, and (4) Rutherford scattering makes such dark matter self-interacting and collisional, potentially impacting properties of the Bullet Cluster and the observed morphology of galactic halos. We analyze all of these effects in a WIMPless model in which the hidden sector is a simplified version of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the dark matter is a hidden sector stau. We find that charged hidden dark matter is viable and consistent with the correct relic density for reasonable model parameters and dark matter masses in the range 1 GeV ∼ X ∼< 10 TeV. At the same time, in the preferred range of parameters, this model predicts cores in the dark matter halos of small galaxies and other halo properties that may be within the reach of future observations. These models therefore provide a viable and well-motivated framework for collisional dark matter with Sommerfeld enhancement, with novel implications for astrophysics and dark matter searches
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hobolth, Asger
2008-01-01
-dimensional integrals required in the EM algorithm are estimated using MCMC sampling. The MCMC sampler requires simulation of sample paths from a continuous time Markov process, conditional on the beginning and ending states and the paths of the neighboring sites. An exact path sampling algorithm is developed......The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor......-dependent substitution models are analytically intractable and must be analyzed using either approximate or simulation-based methods. We describe statistical inference of neighbor-dependent models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCMC-EM) algorithm. In the MCMC-EM algorithm, the high...
Markov chains theory and applications
Sericola, Bruno
2013-01-01
Markov chains are a fundamental class of stochastic processes. They are widely used to solve problems in a large number of domains such as operational research, computer science, communication networks and manufacturing systems. The success of Markov chains is mainly due to their simplicity of use, the large number of available theoretical results and the quality of algorithms developed for the numerical evaluation of many metrics of interest.The author presents the theory of both discrete-time and continuous-time homogeneous Markov chains. He carefully examines the explosion phenomenon, the
Dynamic portfolio optimization across hidden market regimes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik
2017-01-01
Regime-based asset allocation has been shown to add value over rebalancing to static weights and, in particular, reduce potential drawdowns by reacting to changes in market conditions. The predominant approach in previous studies has been to specify in advance a static decision rule for changing...... the allocation based on the state of financial markets or the economy. In this article, model predictive control (MPC) is used to dynamically optimize a portfolio based on forecasts of the mean and variance of financial returns from a hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters. There are computational...... than a buy-and-hold investment in various major stock market indices. This is after accounting for transaction costs, with a one-day delay in the implementation of allocation changes, and with zero-interest cash as the only alternative to the stock indices. Imposing a trading penalty that reduces...
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Systat Software Asia-Pacific. Ltd., in Bangalore, where the technical work for the development of the statistical software Systat takes ... In Part 4, we discuss some applications of the Markov ... one can construct the joint probability distribution of.
Reviving Markov processes and applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cai, H.
1988-01-01
In this dissertation we study a procedure which restarts a Markov process when the process is killed by some arbitrary multiplicative functional. The regenerative nature of this revival procedure is characterized through a Markov renewal equation. An interesting duality between the revival procedure and the classical killing operation is found. Under the condition that the multiplicative functional possesses an intensity, the generators of the revival process can be written down explicitly. An intimate connection is also found between the perturbation of the sample path of a Markov process and the perturbation of a generator (in Kato's sense). The applications of the theory include the study of the processes like piecewise-deterministic Markov process, virtual waiting time process and the first entrance decomposition (taboo probability)
Confluence reduction for Markov automata
Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette
Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models
Confluence Reduction for Markov Automata
Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Braberman, Victor; Fribourg, Laurent
Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models
Ma, Junsheng; Chan, Wenyaw; Tsai, Chu-Lin; Xiong, Momiao; Tilley, Barbara C
2015-11-30
Continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) models are often used to study the progression of chronic diseases in medical research but rarely applied to studies of the process of behavioral change. In studies of interventions to modify behaviors, a widely used psychosocial model is based on the transtheoretical model that often has more than three states (representing stages of change) and conceptually permits all possible instantaneous transitions. Very little attention is given to the study of the relationships between a CTMC model and associated covariates under the framework of transtheoretical model. We developed a Bayesian approach to evaluate the covariate effects on a CTMC model through a log-linear regression link. A simulation study of this approach showed that model parameters were accurately and precisely estimated. We analyzed an existing data set on stages of change in dietary intake from the Next Step Trial using the proposed method and the generalized multinomial logit model. We found that the generalized multinomial logit model was not suitable for these data because it ignores the unbalanced data structure and temporal correlation between successive measurements. Our analysis not only confirms that the nutrition intervention was effective but also provides information on how the intervention affected the transitions among the stages of change. We found that, compared with the control group, subjects in the intervention group, on average, spent substantively less time in the precontemplation stage and were more/less likely to move from an unhealthy/healthy state to a healthy/unhealthy state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Madsen, Line Meldgaard; Fiandaca, Gianluca; Auken, Esben; Christiansen, Anders Vest
2017-12-01
The application of time-domain induced polarization (TDIP) is increasing with advances in acquisition techniques, data processing and spectral inversion schemes. An inversion of TDIP data for the spectral Cole-Cole parameters is a non-linear problem, but by applying a 1-D Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion algorithm, a full non-linear uncertainty analysis of the parameters and the parameter correlations can be accessed. This is essential to understand to what degree the spectral Cole-Cole parameters can be resolved from TDIP data. MCMC inversions of synthetic TDIP data, which show bell-shaped probability distributions with a single maximum, show that the Cole-Cole parameters can be resolved from TDIP data if an acquisition range above two decades in time is applied. Linear correlations between the Cole-Cole parameters are observed and by decreasing the acquisitions ranges, the correlations increase and become non-linear. It is further investigated how waveform and parameter values influence the resolution of the Cole-Cole parameters. A limiting factor is the value of the frequency exponent, C. As C decreases, the resolution of all the Cole-Cole parameters decreases and the results become increasingly non-linear. While the values of the time constant, τ, must be in the acquisition range to resolve the parameters well, the choice between a 50 per cent and a 100 per cent duty cycle for the current injection does not have an influence on the parameter resolution. The limits of resolution and linearity are also studied in a comparison between the MCMC and a linearized gradient-based inversion approach. The two methods are consistent for resolved models, but the linearized approach tends to underestimate the uncertainties for poorly resolved parameters due to the corresponding non-linear features. Finally, an MCMC inversion of 1-D field data verifies that spectral Cole-Cole parameters can also be resolved from TD field measurements.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Louie, Alexander V.; Rodrigues, George; Hannouf, Malek; Zaric, Gregory S.; Palma, David A.; Cao, Jeffrey Q.; Yaremko, Brian P.; Malthaner, Richard; Mocanu, Joseph D.
2011-01-01
Purpose: To compare the quality-adjusted life expectancy and overall survival in patients with Stage I non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with either stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) or surgery. Methods and Materials: We constructed a Markov model to describe health states after either SBRT or lobectomy for Stage I NSCLC for a 5-year time frame. We report various treatment strategy survival outcomes stratified by age, sex, and pack-year history of smoking, and compared these with an external outcome prediction tool (Adjuvant! Online). Results: Overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and other causes of death as predicted by our model correlated closely with those predicted by the external prediction tool. Overall survival at 5 years as predicted by baseline analysis of our model is in favor of surgery, with a benefit ranging from 2.2% to 3.0% for all cohorts. Mean quality-adjusted life expectancy ranged from 3.28 to 3.78 years after surgery and from 3.35 to 3.87 years for SBRT. The utility threshold for preferring SBRT over surgery was 0.90. Outcomes were sensitive to quality of life, the proportion of local and regional recurrences treated with standard vs. palliative treatments, and the surgery- and SBRT-related mortalities. Conclusions: The role of SBRT in the medically operable patient is yet to be defined. Our model indicates that SBRT may offer comparable overall survival and quality-adjusted life expectancy as compared with surgical resection. Well-powered prospective studies comparing surgery vs. SBRT in early-stage lung cancer are warranted to further investigate the relative survival, quality of life, and cost characteristics of both treatment paradigms.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hobolth, Asger
2008-01-01
The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor...
Solovev, V
The SHiP Experiment is a new general-purpose fixed target facility at the SPS to search for hidden particles as predicted by a very large number of recently elaborated models of Hidden Sectors which are capable of accommodating dark matter, neutrino oscillations, and the origin of the full baryon asymmetry in the Universe. Specifically, the experiment is aimed at searching for very weakly interacting long lived particles including Heavy Neutral Leptons - right-handed partners of the active neutrinos; light supersymmetric particles - sgoldstinos, etc.; scalar, axion and vector portals to the hidden sector. The high intensity of the SPS and in particular the large production of charm mesons with the 400 GeV beam allow accessing a wide variety of light long-lived exotic particles of such models and of SUSY. Moreover, the facility is ideally suited to study the interactions of tau neutrinos.
Overley, Samuel C; McAnany, Steven J; Brochin, Robert L; Kim, Jun S; Merrill, Robert K; Qureshi, Sheeraz A
2018-01-01
Anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) and cervical disc replacement (CDR) are both acceptable surgical options for the treatment of cervical myelopathy and radiculopathy. To date, there are limited economic analyses assessing the relative cost-effectiveness of two-level ACDF versus CDR. The purpose of this study was to determine the 5-year cost-effectiveness of two-level ACDF versus CDR. The study design is a secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Patients in the Prestige cervical disc investigational device exemption (IDE) study who underwent either a two-level CDR or a two-level ACDF were included in the study. The outcome measures were cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A Markov state-transition model was used to evaluate data from the two-level Prestige cervical disc IDE study. Data from the 36-item Short Form Health Survey were converted into utilities using the short form (SF)-6D algorithm. Costs were calculated from the payer perspective. QALYs were used to represent effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The base-case analysis, assuming a 40-year-old person who failed appropriate conservative care, generated a 5-year cost of $130,417 for CDR and $116,717 for ACDF. Cervical disc replacement and ACDF generated 3.45 and 3.23 QALYs, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to be $62,337/QALY for CDR. The Monte Carlo simulation validated the base-case scenario. Cervical disc replacement had an average cost of $130,445 (confidence interval [CI]: $108,395-$152,761) with an average effectiveness of 3.46 (CI: 3.05-3.83). Anterior cervical discectomy and fusion had an average cost of $116,595 (CI: $95,439-$137,937) and an average effectiveness of 3.23 (CI: 2.84-3.59). The ICER was calculated at $62,133/QALY with respect to CDR. Using a $100,000/QALY willingness to pay (WTP), CDR is the more cost-effective strategy and would be selected
Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim
2014-11-01
In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.
Gomez, Jorge Alberto; Lepetic, Alejandro; Demarteau, Nadia
2014-11-26
In Chile, significant reductions in cervical cancer incidence and mortality have been observed due to implementation of a well-organized screening program. However, it has been suggested that the inclusion of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for young adolescent women may be the best prospect to further reduce the burden of cervical cancer. This cost-effectiveness study comparing two available HPV vaccines in Chile was performed to support decision making on the implementation of universal HPV vaccination. The present analysis used an existing static Markov model to assess the effect of screening and vaccination. This analysis includes the epidemiology of low-risk HPV types allowing for the comparison between the two vaccines (HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine and the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine), latest cross-protection data on HPV vaccines, treatment costs for cervical cancer, vaccine costs and 6% discounting per the health economic guideline for Chile. Projected incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICERs) for the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine was 116 United States (US) dollars per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained or 147 US dollars per life-years (LY) saved, while the projected ICUR/ICER for the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine was 541 US dollars per QALY gained or 726 US dollars per LY saved. Introduction of any HPV vaccine to the present cervical cancer prevention program of Chile is estimated to be highly cost-effective (below 1X gross domestic product [GDP] per capita, 14278 US dollars). In Chile, the addition of HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine to the existing screening program dominated the addition of HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis results show that the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine is expected to be dominant and cost-saving in 69.3% and 77.6% of the replicates respectively. The findings indicate that the addition of any HPV vaccine to the current cervical screening
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaohui Zeng
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Maintenance gefitinib significantly prolonged progression-free survival (PFS compared with placebo in patients from eastern Asian with locally advanced/metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC after four chemotherapeutic cycles (21 days per cycle of first-line platinum-based combination chemotherapy without disease progression. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maintenance gefitinib therapy after four chemotherapeutic cycle's stand first-line platinum-based chemotherapy for patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC with unknown EGFR mutations, from a Chinese health care system perspective. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A semi-Markov model was designed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of the maintenance gefitinib treatment. Two-parametric Weibull and Log-logistic distribution were fitted to PFS and overall survival curves independently. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the stability of the model designed. The model base-case analysis suggested that maintenance gefitinib would increase benefits in a 1, 3, 6 or 10-year time horizon, with incremental $184,829, $19,214, $19,328, and $21,308 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained, respectively. The most sensitive influential variable in the cost-effectiveness analysis was utility of PFS plus rash, followed by utility of PFS plus diarrhoea, utility of progressed disease, price of gefitinib, cost of follow-up treatment in progressed survival state, and utility of PFS on oral therapy. The price of gefitinib is the most significant parameter that could reduce the incremental cost per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost-effective probability of maintenance gefitinib was zero under the willingness-to-pay (WTP threshold of $16,349 (3 × per-capita gross domestic product of China. The sensitivity analyses all suggested that the model was robust. CONCLUSIONS: Maintenance gefitinib
Zhou, Shuangyan; Wang, Qianqian; Wang, Yuwei; Yao, Xiaojun; Han, Wei; Liu, Huanxiang
2017-05-10
The structural transition of prion proteins from a native α-helix (PrP C ) to a misfolded β-sheet-rich conformation (PrP Sc ) is believed to be the main cause of a number of prion diseases in humans and animals. Understanding the molecular basis of misfolding and aggregation of prion proteins will be valuable for unveiling the etiology of prion diseases. However, due to the limitation of conventional experimental techniques and the heterogeneous property of oligomers, little is known about the molecular architecture of misfolded PrP Sc and the mechanism of structural transition from PrP C to PrP Sc . The prion fragment 127-147 (PrP127-147) has been reported to be a critical region for PrP Sc formation in Gerstmann-Straussler-Scheinker (GSS) syndrome and thus has been used as a model for the study of prion aggregation. In the present study, we employ molecular dynamics (MD) simulation techniques to study the conformational change of this fragment that could be relevant to the PrP C -PrP Sc transition. Employing extensive replica exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) and conventional MD simulations, we sample a huge number of conformations of PrP127-147. Using the Markov state model (MSM), we identify the metastable conformational states of this fragment and the kinetic network of transitions between the states. The resulting MSM reveals that disordered random-coiled conformations are the dominant structures. A key metastable folded state with typical extended β-sheet structures is identified with Pro137 being located in a turn region, consistent with a previous experimental report. Conformational analysis reveals that intrapeptide hydrophobic interaction and two key residue interactions, including Arg136-His140 and Pro137-His140, contribute a lot to the formation of ordered extended β-sheet states. However, network pathway analysis from the most populated disordered state indicates that the formation of extended β-sheet states is quite slow (at the millisecond
Geometric phases and hidden local gauge symmetry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fujikawa, Kazuo
2005-01-01
The analysis of geometric phases associated with level crossing is reduced to the familiar diagonalization of the Hamiltonian in the second quantized formulation. A hidden local gauge symmetry, which is associated with the arbitrariness of the phase choice of a complete orthonormal basis set, becomes explicit in this formulation (in particular, in the adiabatic approximation) and specifies physical observables. The choice of a basis set which specifies the coordinate in the functional space is arbitrary in the second quantization, and a subclass of coordinate transformations, which keeps the form of the action invariant, is recognized as the gauge symmetry. We discuss the implications of this hidden local gauge symmetry in detail by analyzing geometric phases for cyclic and noncyclic evolutions. It is shown that the hidden local symmetry provides a basic concept alternative to the notion of holonomy to analyze geometric phases and that the analysis based on the hidden local gauge symmetry leads to results consistent with the general prescription of Pancharatnam. We however note an important difference between the geometric phases for cyclic and noncyclic evolutions. We also explain a basic difference between our hidden local gauge symmetry and a gauge symmetry (or equivalence class) used by Aharonov and Anandan in their definition of generalized geometric phases
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Birgitte; Jensen, Karsten Klint
“The Hidden Values - Transparency in Decision-Making Processes Dealing with Hazardous Activities”. The report seeks to shed light on what is needed to create a transparent framework for political and administrative decisions on the use of GMOs and chemical products. It is our hope that the report...
Switching Markov chains for a holistic modeling of SIS unavailability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mechri, Walid; Simon, Christophe; BenOthman, Kamel
2015-01-01
This paper proposes a holistic approach to model the Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS). The model is based on Switching Markov Chain and integrates several parameters like Common Cause Failure, Imperfect Proof testing, partial proof testing, etc. The basic concepts of Switching Markov Chain applied to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the unavailability for a case study is presented. The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows us to assess the effect of each parameter on the SIS performance. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. - Highlights: • A holistic approach to model the unavailability safety systems using Switching Markov chains. • The model integrates several parameters like probability of failure due to the test, the probability of not detecting a failure in a test. • The basic concepts of the Switching Markov Chains are introduced and applied to compute the unavailability for safety systems. • The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows assessing the effect of each parameter on the chemical reactor performance
Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin
2016-01-01
This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis
Driving Style Analysis Using Primitive Driving Patterns With Bayesian Nonparametric Approaches
Wang, Wenshuo; Xi, Junqiang; Zhao, Ding
2017-01-01
Analysis and recognition of driving styles are profoundly important to intelligent transportation and vehicle calibration. This paper presents a novel driving style analysis framework using the primitive driving patterns learned from naturalistic driving data. In order to achieve this, first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning method based on a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) is introduced to extract primitive driving patterns from time series driving data without prior knowledge of the number...
Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood
2006-01-01
In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank
Yang, W.; Long, D.
2017-12-01
Both land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change exert significant impacts on runoff, which needs to be thoroughly examined in the context of urbanization, population growth, and climate change. The majority of studies focus on the impacts of either LUCC or climate on runoff in the upper reaches of the Panjiakou Reservoir in the Luanhe River basin, North China. In this study, first, two land use change matrices for periods 1970‒1980 and 1980‒2000 were constructed based on the theory of the Markov Chain which were used to predict the land use scenario of the basin in year 2020. Second, a distributed hydrological model, Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT), was set up and driven mainly by the China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product and outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP). Third, under the land use scenario in 2000, streamflow at the Chengde gauging station for the period 1998‒2014 was simulated with the CGDPA as input, and streamflow for the period 2015‒2025 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was simulated using the outputs from GCMs and compared under the land use scenarios in 2000 and 2020. Results show that during 2015‒2025, the ensemble average precipitation in summer (i.e., from June to August) may increase up to 20% but decrease by -16% in fall (i.e., from September to November). The streamflow may increase in all the seasons, particularly in spring (i.e., from March to May) and summer reaching 150% and 142%, respectively. Furthermore, the streamflow may increase even more when the land use scenario for the period 1998‒2025 remains the same as that in 2000. The minimum (61mm) and maximum (77mm) mean annual runoff depth occur under the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios, respectively, compared with the mean annual observed streamflow of 33 mm from 1998 to 2014. Finally, we analyzed the correlation among the main land use types
On the representability of complete genomes by multiple competing finite-context (Markov models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Armando J Pinho
Full Text Available A finite-context (Markov model of order k yields the probability distribution of the next symbol in a sequence of symbols, given the recent past up to depth k. Markov modeling has long been applied to DNA sequences, for example to find gene-coding regions. With the first studies came the discovery that DNA sequences are non-stationary: distinct regions require distinct model orders. Since then, Markov and hidden Markov models have been extensively used to describe the gene structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes. However, to our knowledge, a comprehensive study about the potential of Markov models to describe complete genomes is still lacking. We address this gap in this paper. Our approach relies on (i multiple competing Markov models of different orders (ii careful programming techniques that allow orders as large as sixteen (iii adequate inverted repeat handling (iv probability estimates suited to the wide range of context depths used. To measure how well a model fits the data at a particular position in the sequence we use the negative logarithm of the probability estimate at that position. The measure yields information profiles of the sequence, which are of independent interest. The average over the entire sequence, which amounts to the average number of bits per base needed to describe the sequence, is used as a global performance measure. Our main conclusion is that, from the probabilistic or information theoretic point of view and according to this performance measure, multiple competing Markov models explain entire genomes almost as well or even better than state-of-the-art DNA compression methods, such as XM, which rely on very different statistical models. This is surprising, because Markov models are local (short-range, contrasting with the statistical models underlying other methods, where the extensive data repetitions in DNA sequences is explored, and therefore have a non-local character.
Maximizing Entropy over Markov Processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis
2013-01-01
The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of an system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code....
Maximizing entropy over Markov processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis
2014-01-01
The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of a system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code. © 2014 Elsevier...
Markov chains and mixing times
Levin, David A; Wilmer, Elizabeth L
2009-01-01
This book is an introduction to the modern approach to the theory of Markov chains. The main goal of this approach is to determine the rate of convergence of a Markov chain to the stationary distribution as a function of the size and geometry of the state space. The authors develop the key tools for estimating convergence times, including coupling, strong stationary times, and spectral methods. Whenever possible, probabilistic methods are emphasized. The book includes many examples and provides brief introductions to some central models of statistical mechanics. Also provided are accounts of r
English, Thomas
2005-01-01
A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.
Peppers, Emily
2008-01-01
The Cultural Collections Audit project began at the University of Edinburgh in 2004, searching for hidden treasures in its 'distributed heritage collections' across the university. The objects and collections recorded in the Audit ranged widely from fine art and furniture to historical scientific and teaching equipment and personalia relating to key figures in the university's long tradition of academic excellence. This information was gathered in order to create a central database of informa...