WorldWideScience

Sample records for height-area rainfall threshold

  1. Determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayorga Marquez, Ruth

    2003-01-01

    Considering that rainfall is the natural event that more often triggers landslides, it is important to study the relationship between this phenomenon and the occurrence of earth mass movements, by determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in different zones of Colombia. The research presents a methodology that allows proposing rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia, by means of a relationship between the accumulated rain in the soil (antecedent rainfall) and the rain that falls the day of the landslide occurrence (event rainfall)

  2. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

    2018-04-01

    This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

  3. Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Brunetti

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four

  4. Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis

  5. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mingfeng Deng

    2018-02-14

    Feb 14, 2018 ... Rainfall characteristics; runoff generated; threshold; debris flows; southeast Tibetan. Plateau. 1. ... glacier ablation water (Lu and Li 1989; Liu et al. 2013). ...... F J and Lund L J, US Department of Agriculture (River- side, CA ...

  6. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was

  7. Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

    2014-05-01

    This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

  8. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peternel, Tina; Jemec Auflič, Mateja; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Komac, Marko; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    Both at the worldwide level and in Slovenia, precipitation and related phenomena represent one of the most important triggering factors for the occurrence of slope mass movements. In the past decade, extreme rainfall events with a very high amount of precipitation occurs in a relatively short rainfall period have become increasingly important and more frequent, that causing numerous undesirable consequences. Intense rainstorms cause flash floods and mostly trigger shallow landslides and soil slips. On the other hand, the damage of long lasting rainstorms depends on the region's adaptation and its capacity to store or infiltrate excessive water from the rain. The amount and, consequently, the intensity of daily precipitation that can cause floods in the eastern part of Slovenia is a rather common event for the north-western part of the country. Likewise, the effect of rainfall is very dependent on the prior soil moisture, periods of full soil saturation and the creation of drifts in groundwater levels due to the slow melting of snow, growing period, etc. Landslides could be identified and to some extent also prevent with better knowledge of the relation between landslides and rainfall. In this paper the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges all over the country. The thresholds have been defined by the (1) use of an existing procedure, characterized by a high degree of objectiveness and (2) software that was developed for a test site with very different geological and climatic characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). Firstly, a single national threshold has been defined, later the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of major the river basins and a single threshold has been calculated for each of them. Validation of the calculated

  9. Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

  10. Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

    2013-04-01

    Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

  11. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  12. Rainfall-threshold conditions for landslides in a humid-tropical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Matthew C.; Simon, Andrew

    1993-01-01

    Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as

  13. Radar rainfall estimation for the identification of debris-flow precipitation thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco

    2014-05-01

    Identification of rainfall thresholds for the prediction of debris-flow occurrence is a common approach for warning procedures. Traditionally the debris-flow triggering rainfall is derived from the closest available raingauge. However, the spatial and temporal variability of intense rainfall on mountainous areas, where debris flows take place, may lead to large uncertainty in point-based estimates. Nikolopoulos et al. (2014) have shown that this uncertainty translates into a systematic underestimation of the rainfall thresholds, leading to a step degradation of the performances of the rainfall threshold for identification of debris flows occurrence under operational conditions. A potential solution to this limitation lies on use of rainfall estimates from weather radar. Thanks to their high spatial and temporal resolutions, these estimates offer the advantage of providing rainfall information over the actual debris flow location. The aim of this study is to analyze the value of radar precipitation estimations for the identification of debris flow precipitation thresholds. Seven rainfall events that triggered debris flows in the Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) are analyzed using data from a dense raingauge network and a C-Band weather radar. Radar data are elaborated by using a set of correction algorithms specifically developed for weather radar rainfall application in mountainous areas. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of debris flows are identified in the form of average intensity-duration power law curves using a frequentist approach by using both radar rainfall estimates and raingauge data. Sampling uncertainty associated to the derivation of the thresholds is assessed by using a bootstrap technique (Peruccacci et al. 2012). Results show that radar-based rainfall thresholds are largely exceeding those obtained by using raingauge data. Moreover, the differences between the two thresholds may be related to the spatial characteristics (i.e., spatial

  14. Rainfall-induced landslides in Europe: hotspots and thresholds (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda, J.; Jaedicke, C.; Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.

    2010-12-01

    This contribution presents preliminary results of the European project SafeLand. SafeLand is a large-scale integrating collaborative research project on landslide risks in Europe, funded by the Seventh Framework Programme for research and technological development (FP7) of the European Commission. SafeLand was launched in May 2009 and will run for three years. The project team, which comprises 27 institutions from 12 European countries, is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) in Norway. SafeLand aims to develop and implement an integrated and comprehensive approach to help and guide decision-making in connection with mitigation of landslide risks. Quantifying the effects of global change (changes in demography and climate change) on evolution of landslide risk in Europe is one of the main goals of SafeLand. The methodologies are tested in selected hazard and risk "hotspots” in Europe, in turn improving knowledge, methodologies and integration strategies for the management of landslide risk. The present contribution is focused on two components of SafeLand: (1) the identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots and (2) the estimation and assessment of rainfall thresholds for triggering of landslides. Hotspots of landslide hazard and risk were identified by an objective GIS-based analysis. The results show clearly where landslide pose the largest hazard in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. In absolute numbers, Italy is the country with the highest amount of area and population exposed. Relative to absolute number of inhabitants and area, small alpine countries such as Lichtenstein and Montenegro score highest where as much as 40% of the population could be exposed. It is obvious that the type and quality of the input data are decisive for the quality of the results. Especially the estimation of extreme precipitation events needs improvement. These preliminary results are

  15. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Mingfeng; Chen, Ningsheng; Ding, Haitao

    2018-02-01

    The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012-2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfall duration, mean rainfall intensity, and peak rainfall intensity are consistent, but sometimes contrasting. For example, these values decrease with increasing altitude, and the gradient is large downstream and small upstream, respectively. Moreover, the rainfall intensity peaks between 01:00 and 06:00 and increases during the afternoon. Based on the analysis of 14 debris flow cases in the basin, differences in the rainfall threshold differ depending on the location as sediment varieties. The sediment in the middle portions of the basin is wet and well structured; thus, long-duration, high-intensity rainfall is required to generate debris flows. Ravels in the upstream area are arid and not well structured, and short-duration rainfall is required to trigger debris flows. Between the above two locations, either long-duration, low-intensity rainfall or short-duration, high-intensity rainfall could provoke debris flows. Clearly, differences in rainfall characteristics and rainfall thresholds that are associated with the location must be considered in debris flow monitoring and warnings.

  16. Rainfall thresholds as a landslide indicator for engineered slopes on the Irish Rail network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinović, Karlo; Gavin, Kenneth; Reale, Cormac; Mangan, Cathal

    2018-04-01

    Rainfall thresholds express the minimum levels of rainfall that need to be reached or exceeded in order for landslides to occur in a particular area. They are a common tool in expressing the temporal portion of landslide hazard analysis. Numerous rainfall thresholds have been developed for different areas worldwide, however none of these are focused on landslides occurring on the engineered slopes on transport infrastructure networks. This paper uses empirical method to develop the rainfall thresholds for landslides on the Irish Rail network earthworks. For comparison, rainfall thresholds are also developed for natural terrain in Ireland. The results show that particular thresholds involving relatively low rainfall intensities are applicable for Ireland, owing to the specific climate. Furthermore, the comparison shows that rainfall thresholds for engineered slopes are lower than those for landslides occurring on the natural terrain. This has severe implications as it indicates that there is a significant risk involved when using generic weather alerts (developed largely for natural terrain) for infrastructure management, and showcases the need for developing railway and road specific rainfall thresholds for landslides.

  17. Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hua-Li; Jiang, Yuan-Jun; Wang, Jun; Ou, Guo-Qiang

    2018-05-01

    Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other

  18. Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Becker, Rachel E.; Baum, Rex L.; Smith, Joel B.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landsliding can help reduce fatalities and economic losses. Although these commonly occurring landslides are typically triggered by subsurface hydrological processes, most early warning criteria rely exclusively on empirical rainfall thresholds and other indirect proxies for subsurface wetness. We explore the utility of explicitly accounting for antecedent wetness by integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements into landslide early warning criteria. Our efforts build on previous progress with rainfall thresholds, monitoring, and numerical modeling along the landslide-prone railway corridor between Everett and Seattle, Washington, USA. We propose a modification to a previously established recent versus antecedent (RA) cumulative rainfall thresholds by replacing the antecedent 15-day rainfall component with an average saturation observed over the same timeframe. We calculate this antecedent saturation with real-time telemetered measurements from five volumetric water content probes installed in the shallow subsurface within a steep vegetated hillslope. Our hybrid rainfall versus saturation (RS) threshold still relies on the same recent 3-day rainfall component as the existing RA thresholds, to facilitate ready integration with quantitative precipitation forecasts. During the 2015–2017 monitoring period, this RS hybrid approach has an increase of true positives and a decrease of false positives and false negatives relative to the previous RA rainfall-only thresholds. We also demonstrate that alternative hybrid threshold formats could be even more accurate, which suggests that further development and testing during future landslide seasons is needed. The positive results confirm that accounting for antecedent wetness conditions with direct subsurface hydrologic measurements can improve thresholds for alert systems and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding.

  19. THRESH—Software for tracking rainfall thresholds for landslide and debris-flow occurrence, user manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Rex L.; Fischer, Sarah J.; Vigil, Jacob C.

    2018-02-28

    Precipitation thresholds are used in many areas to provide early warning of precipitation-induced landslides and debris flows, and the software distribution THRESH is designed for automated tracking of precipitation, including precipitation forecasts, relative to thresholds for landslide occurrence. This software is also useful for analyzing multiyear precipitation records to compare timing of threshold exceedance with dates and times of historical landslides. This distribution includes the main program THRESH for comparing precipitation to several kinds of thresholds, two utility programs, and a small collection of Python and shell scripts to aid the automated collection and formatting of input data and the graphing and further analysis of output results. The software programs can be deployed on computing platforms that support Fortran 95, Python 2, and certain Unix commands. The software handles rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, cumulative recent-antecedent precipitation thresholds, and peak intensity thresholds as well as various measures of antecedent precipitation. Users should have predefined rainfall thresholds before running THRESH.

  20. Validation and evaluation of epistemic uncertainty in rainfall thresholds for regional scale landslide forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Iovine, Giulio; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Vennari, Carmela; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2015-04-01

    Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the analysis of past rainfall events that have (or have not) resulted in slope failures. Accurate prediction requires reliable thresholds, which need to be validated before their use in operational landslide warning systems. Despite the clear relevance of validation, only a few studies have addressed the problem, and have proposed and tested robust validation procedures. We propose a validation procedure that allows for the definition of optimal thresholds for early warning purposes. The validation is based on contingency table, skill scores, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. To establish the optimal threshold, which maximizes the correct landslide predictions and minimizes the incorrect predictions, we propose an index that results from the linear combination of three weighted skill scores. Selection of the optimal threshold depends on the scope and the operational characteristics of the early warning system. The choice is made by selecting appropriately the weights, and by searching for the optimal (maximum) value of the index. We discuss weakness in the validation procedure caused by the inherent lack of information (epistemic uncertainty) on landslide occurrence typical of large study areas. When working at the regional scale, landslides may have occurred and may have not been reported. This results in biases and variations in the contingencies and the skill scores. We introduce two parameters to represent the unknown proportion of rainfall events (above and below the threshold) for which landslides occurred and went unreported. We show that even a very small underestimation in the number of landslides can result in a significant decrease in the performance of a threshold measured by the skill scores. We show that the variations in the skill scores are different for different uncertainty of events above or below the threshold. This

  1. Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres, David J.; Cancelliere, Antonino; Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom A.

    2018-03-01

    Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity-duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

  2. Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Peres

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity–duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily. The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

  3. Development of a landlside EWS based on rainfall thresholds for Tuscany Region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Battistini, Alessandro; Rossi, Guglielmo; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    We present the set-up of a landslide EWS based on rainfall thresholds for the Tuscany region (central Italy), that shows a heterogeneous distribution of reliefs and precipitation. The work started with the definition of a single set of thresholds for the whole region, but it resulted unsuitable for EWS purposes, because of the heterogeneity of the Tuscan territory and non-repeatability of the analyses, that were affected by a high degree of subjectivity. To overcome this problem, the work started from the implementation of a software capable of objectively defining the rainfall thresholds, since some of the main issues of these thresholds are the subjectivity of the analysis and therefore their non-repeatability. This software, named MaCumBA, is largely automated and can analyze, in a short time, a high number of rainfall events to define several parameters of the threshold, such as the intensity (I) and the duration (D) of the rainfall event, the no-rain time gap (NRG: how many hours without rain are needed to consider two events as separated) and the equation describing the threshold. The possibility of quickly perform several analyses lead to the decision to divide the territory in 25 homogeneous areas (named alert zones, AZ), so as a single threshold for each AZ could be defined. For the definition of the thresholds two independent datasets (of joint rainfall-landslide occurrences) have been used: a calibration dataset (data from 2000 to 2007) and a validation dataset (2008-2009). Once the thresholds were defined, a WebGIS-based EWS has been implemented. In this system it is possible to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h; forecasting data are collected from LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts. The EWS works on the basis of the threshold parameters defined by MaCumBA (I, D, NRG). An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the Web

  4. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flows at La Honda, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R.C.; Wieczorek, G.F.

    1995-01-01

    A simple numerical model, based on the physical analogy of a leaky barrel, can simulate significant features of the interaction between rainfall and shallow-hillslope pore pressures. The leaky-barrel-model threshold is consistent with, but slightly higher than, an earlier, purely empirical, threshold. The number of debris flows triggered by a storm can be related to the time and amount by which the leaky-barrel-model response exceeded the threshold during the storm. -from Authors

  5. An Advanced Method to Apply Multiple Rainfall Thresholds for Urban Flood Warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiun-Huei Jang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Issuing warning information to the public when rainfall exceeds given thresholds is a simple and widely-used method to minimize flood risk; however, this method lacks sophistication when compared with hydrodynamic simulation. In this study, an advanced methodology is proposed to improve the warning effectiveness of the rainfall threshold method for urban areas through deterministic-stochastic modeling, without sacrificing simplicity and efficiency. With regards to flooding mechanisms, rainfall thresholds of different durations are divided into two groups accounting for flooding caused by drainage overload and disastrous runoff, which help in grading the warning level in terms of emergency and severity when the two are observed together. A flood warning is then classified into four levels distinguished by green, yellow, orange, and red lights in ascending order of priority that indicate the required measures, from standby, flood defense, evacuation to rescue, respectively. The proposed methodology is tested according to 22 historical events in the last 10 years for 252 urbanized townships in Taiwan. The results show satisfactory accuracy in predicting the occurrence and timing of flooding, with a logical warning time series for taking progressive measures. For systems with multiple rainfall thresholds already in place, the methodology can be used to ensure better application of rainfall thresholds in urban flood warnings.

  6. Determining the precipitable water vapor thresholds under different rainfall strengths in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Ta-Kang; Shih, Hsuan-Chang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Choy, Suelynn; Chen, Chieh-Hung; Hong, Jing-Shan

    2018-02-01

    Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) plays an important role for weather forecasting. It is helpful in evaluating the changes of the weather system via observing the distribution of water vapor. The ability of calculating PWV from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals is useful to understand the special weather phenomenon. In this study, 95 ground-based GPS and rainfall stations in Taiwan were utilized from 2006 to 2012 to analyze the relationship between PWV and rainfall. The PWV data were classified into four classes (no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall), and the vertical gradients of the PWV were obtained and the variations of the PWV were analyzed. The results indicated that as the GPS elevation increased every 100 m, the PWV values decreased by 9.5 mm, 11.0 mm, 12.2 mm and 12.3 mm during the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. After applying correction using the vertical gradients mentioned above, the average PWV thresholds were 41.8 mm, 52.9 mm, 62.5 mm and 64.4 mm under the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. This study offers another type of empirical threshold to assist the rainfall prediction and can be used to distinguish the rainfall features between different areas in Taiwan.

  7. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  8. Diversity of Rainfall Thresholds for early warning of hydro-geological disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. De Luca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For early warning of disasters induced by precipitation (such as floods and landslides, different kinds of rainfall thresholds are adopted, which vary from each other, on the basis on adopted hypotheses. In some cases, they represent the occurrence probability of an event (landslide or flood, in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned indicator I (a function of rainfall heights, and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of a prefixed percentage a critical value for I, indicated as Icr. For each scheme, it is usual to define three different criticality levels (ordinary, moderate and severe, which are associated to warning levels, according to emergency plans. This work briefly discusses different schemes of rainfall thresholds, focusing attention on landslide prediction, with some applications to a real case study in Calabria region (southern Italy.

  9. Hillslope threshold response to rainfall: (1) a field based forensic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. Graham; Ross A. Woods; Jeffrey J. McDonnell

    2010-01-01

    Hillslope threshold response to storm rainfall is poorly understood. Basic questions regarding the type, location, and flow dynamics of lateral, subsurface flow remain unanswered, even at our most intensively studied field sites. Here we apply a forensic approach where we combined irrigation and excavation experiments at the well studied Maimai hillslope to determine...

  10. Empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, Pablo; Luís Zêzere, José; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-triggered landslides are common and widespread phenomena in Asturias, a mountainous region in the NW of Spain where the climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature values of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Different types of landslides (slides, flows and rockfalls) frequently occur during intense rainfall events, causing every year great economic losses and sometimes human injuries or fatalities. For this reason, its temporal forecast is of great interest. The main goal of the present research is the calculation of empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Asturian region, following the methodology described by Zêzere et al., 2015. For this purpose, data from 559 individual landslides collected from press archives during a period of eight hydrological years (October 2008-September 2016) and gathered within the BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) were used. Precipitation data series of 37 years came from 6 weather stations representative of the main geographical and climatic conditions within the study area. Applied methodology includes: (i) the definition of landslide events, (ii) the reconstruction of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for each event from 1 to 90 consecutive days, (iii) the estimation of the return period for each cumulated rainfall-duration condition using Gumbel probability distribution, (iv) the definition of the critical cumulated rainfall-duration conditions taking into account the highest return period, (v) the calculation of the thresholds considering both the conditions for the occurrence and non-occurrence of landslides. References: Zêzere, J.L., Vaz, T., Pereira, S., Oliveira, S.C., Marqués, R., García, R.A.C. 2015. Rainfall thresholds for landslide activity in Portugal: a state of the art. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73, 2917-2936. doi: 10.1007/s12665-014-3672-0

  11. Rainfall thresholds as support for timing fungicide applications in the control of potato late blight in Ecuador and Peru

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kromann, Peter; Taipe, Arturo; Perez, Willmer G.

    2009-01-01

    Accumulated rainfall thresholds were studied in seven field experiments conducted in Ecuador and Peru for their value in timing applications of fungicide to control potato late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans. Fungicide regimes based on accumulated rainfall thresholds ranging from 10 to 70...

  12. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for postfire debris-flow emergency-response planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, S.H.; Boldt, E.M.; Laber, J.L.; Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies can be faced with evacuation and resource-deployment decisions well in advance of coming winter storms and during storms themselves. Information critical to these decisions is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands is used to develop a system for classifying magnitudes of hydrologic response. The four-class system describes combinations of reported volumes of individual debris flows, consequences of debris flows and floods in an urban setting, and spatial extents of the hydrologic response. The range of rainfall conditions associated with different magnitude classes is defined by integrating local rainfall data with the response magnitude information. Magnitude I events can be expected when within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) of given durations (D) fall above the threshold A = 0.4D0.5 and below A = 0.5D0.6 for durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude II events will be generated in response to rainfall accumulations and durations between A = 0.4D0.5 and A = 0.9D0.5 for durations less than 1 h, and between A = 0.5D0.6 and A = 0.9D0.5 or durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude III events can be expected in response to rainfall conditions above the threshold A = 0.9D0.5. Rainfall threshold-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions as an emergency-response decision chart, which leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels. Use of this information in planning and response decision-making process could result in increased safety for both the public and emergency responders. ?? 2011 US Government.

  13. Building rainfall thresholds for large-scales landslides by extracting occurrence time of landslides from seismic records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Guan-Wei

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the rainfall condition which triggers mass moment on hillslope is the key to forecast rainfall-induced slope hazards, and the exact time of landslide occurrence is one of the basic information for rainfall statistics. In the study, we focused on large-scale landslides (LSLs) with disturbed area larger than 10 ha and conducted a string of studies including the recognition of landslide-induced ground motions and the analyses of different terms of rainfall thresholds. More than 10 heavy typhoons during the periods of 2005-2014 in Taiwan induced more than hundreds of LSLs and provided the opportunity to characterize the rainfall conditions which trigger LSLs. A total of 101 landslide-induced seismic signals were identified from the records of Taiwan seismic network. These signals exposed the occurrence time of landslide to assess rainfall conditions. Rainfall analyses showed that LSLs occurred when cumulative rainfall exceeded 500 mm. The results of rainfall-threshold analyses revealed that it is difficult to distinct LSLs from small-scale landslides (SSLs) by the I-D and R-D methods, but the I-R method can achieve the discrimination. Besides, an enhanced three-factor threshold considering deep water content was proposed as the rainfall threshold for LSLs.

  14. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  15. Runoff generation in a Mediterranean semi-arid landscape: Thresholds, scale, rainfall and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, Fabian; Schmidt, Sebastian; Sauter, Martin; Lange, Jens

    2016-04-01

    Surface runoff acts as an integrated response of catchment characteristics and hydrological processes. In the Eastern Mediterranean region, a lack of runoff data has hindered a better understanding of runoff generation processes on the catchment scale, despite the importance of surface runoff as a water resource or flood hazard. Our main aim was to identify and explain differences in catchment runoff reactions across a variety of scales. Over a period of five years, we observed runoff in ephemeral streams of seven watersheds with sizes between 3 and 129 km2. Landuse and surface cover types (share of vegetation, bare soil and rock outcrops) were derived from aerial images by objective classification techniques. Using data from a dense rainfall network we analysed the effects of scale, catchment properties and aridity on runoff generation. Thereby we extracted rainfall and corresponding runoff events from our time-series to calculate event based rainfall characteristics and catchment runoff coefficients. Soil moisture observations provided additional information on antecedent moisture conditions, infiltration characteristics and the evolution of saturated areas. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that the proportion of Hortonian overland flow increases with aridity, we found that in our area the largest share (> 95 %) of runoff is generated by saturation excess overland flow in response to long lasting, rainfall events of high amount. This was supported by a strong correlation between event runoff and precipitation totals. Similar rainfall thresholds (50 mm) for runoff generation were observed in all investigated catchments. No scale effects on runoff coefficients were found; instead we identified up to three-fold runoff coefficients in catchments with larger extension of arid areas, higher percentage of rock outcrops and urbanization. Comparing two headwater catchments with noticeable differences in extent of olive orchards, no difference in runoff generation was

  16. Animal perception of seasonal thresholds: changes in elephant movement in relation to rainfall patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, Patricia J; Vanak, Abi T; Muggeo, Vito M R; Ferreira, Salamon M; Slotow, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The identification of temporal thresholds or shifts in animal movement informs ecologists of changes in an animal's behaviour, which contributes to an understanding of species' responses in different environments. In African savannas, rainfall, temperature and primary productivity influence the movements of large herbivores and drive changes at different scales. Here, we developed a novel approach to define seasonal shifts in movement behaviour by examining the movements of a highly mobile herbivore (elephant; Loxodonta africana), in relation to local and regional rainfall patterns. We used speed to determine movement changes of between 8 and 14 GPS-collared elephant cows, grouped into five spatial clusters, in Kruger National Park, South Africa. To detect broad-scale patterns of movement, we ran a three-year daily time-series model for each individual (2007-2009). Piecewise regression models provided the best fit for elephant movement, which exhibited a segmented, waveform pattern over time. Major breakpoints in speed occurred at the end of the dry and wet seasons of each year. During the dry season, female elephant are constrained by limited forage and thus the distances they cover are shorter and less variable. Despite the inter-annual variability of rainfall, speed breakpoints were strongly correlated with both local and regional rainfall breakpoints across all three years. Thus, at a multi-year scale, rainfall patterns significantly affect the movements of elephant. The variability of both speed and rainfall breakpoints across different years highlights the need for an objective definition of seasonal boundaries. By using objective criteria to determine behavioural shifts, we identified a biologically meaningful indicator of major changes in animal behaviour in different years. We recommend the use of such criteria, from an animal's perspective, for delineating seasons or other extrinsic shifts in ecological studies, rather than arbitrarily fixed definitions

  17. Animal perception of seasonal thresholds: changes in elephant movement in relation to rainfall patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia J Birkett

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The identification of temporal thresholds or shifts in animal movement informs ecologists of changes in an animal's behaviour, which contributes to an understanding of species' responses in different environments. In African savannas, rainfall, temperature and primary productivity influence the movements of large herbivores and drive changes at different scales. Here, we developed a novel approach to define seasonal shifts in movement behaviour by examining the movements of a highly mobile herbivore (elephant; Loxodonta africana, in relation to local and regional rainfall patterns. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used speed to determine movement changes of between 8 and 14 GPS-collared elephant cows, grouped into five spatial clusters, in Kruger National Park, South Africa. To detect broad-scale patterns of movement, we ran a three-year daily time-series model for each individual (2007-2009. Piecewise regression models provided the best fit for elephant movement, which exhibited a segmented, waveform pattern over time. Major breakpoints in speed occurred at the end of the dry and wet seasons of each year. During the dry season, female elephant are constrained by limited forage and thus the distances they cover are shorter and less variable. Despite the inter-annual variability of rainfall, speed breakpoints were strongly correlated with both local and regional rainfall breakpoints across all three years. Thus, at a multi-year scale, rainfall patterns significantly affect the movements of elephant. The variability of both speed and rainfall breakpoints across different years highlights the need for an objective definition of seasonal boundaries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By using objective criteria to determine behavioural shifts, we identified a biologically meaningful indicator of major changes in animal behaviour in different years. We recommend the use of such criteria, from an animal's perspective, for delineating seasons or

  18. Error threshold inference from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data and interpolated ground-based rainfall measurements in Metro Manila

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampil, L. J. Y.; Yao, J. G.; Lagrosas, N.; Lorenzo, G. R. H.; Simpas, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is a group of satellites that provides global observations of precipitation. Satellite-based observations act as an alternative if ground-based measurements are inadequate or unavailable. Data provided by satellites however must be validated for this data to be reliable and used effectively. In this study, the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final Run v3 half-hourly product is validated by comparing against interpolated ground measurements derived from sixteen ground stations in Metro Manila. The area considered in this study is the region 14.4° - 14.8° latitude and 120.9° - 121.2° longitude, subdivided into twelve 0.1° x 0.1° grid squares. Satellite data from June 1 - August 31, 2014 with the data aggregated to 1-day temporal resolution are used in this study. The satellite data is directly compared to measurements from individual ground stations to determine the effect of the interpolation by contrast against the comparison of satellite data and interpolated measurements. The comparisons are calculated by taking a fractional root-mean-square error (F-RMSE) between two datasets. The results show that interpolation improves errors compared to using raw station data except during days with very small amounts of rainfall. F-RMSE reaches extreme values of up to 654 without a rainfall threshold. A rainfall threshold is inferred to remove extreme error values and make the distribution of F-RMSE more consistent. Results show that the rainfall threshold varies slightly per month. The threshold for June is inferred to be 0.5 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 9.78, while the threshold for July and August is inferred to be 0.1 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 4.8 and 10.7, respectively. The maximum F-RMSE is reduced further as the threshold is increased. Maximum F-RMSE is reduced to 3.06 when a rainfall threshold of 10 mm is applied over the entire duration of JJA. These results indicate that

  19. Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.

  20. Rainfall thresholds and susceptibility mapping for shallow landslides and debris flows in Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dijkstra, Tom; Dixon, Neil

    2017-04-01

    Shallow translational slides and debris flows (hereafter 'landslides') pose a significant threat to life and cause significant annual economic impacts (e.g. by damage and disruption of infrastructure). The focus of this research is on the definition of objective rainfall thresholds using a weather radar system and landslide susceptibility mapping. In the study area Scotland, an inventory of 75 known landslides was used for the period 2003 to 2016. First, the effect of using different rain records (i.e. time series length) on two threshold selection techniques in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was evaluated. The results show that thresholds selected by 'Threat Score' (minimising false alarms) are sensitive to rain record length and which is not routinely considered, whereas thresholds selected using 'Optimal Point' (minimising failed alarms) are not; therefore these may be suited to establishing lower limit thresholds and be of interest to those developing early warning systems. Robust thresholds are found for combinations of normalised rain duration and accumulation at 1 and 12 day's antecedence respectively; these are normalised using the rainy-day normal and an equivalent measure for rain intensity. This research indicates that, in Scotland, rain accumulation provides a better indicator than rain intensity and that landslides may be generated by threshold conditions lower than previously thought. Second, a landslide susceptibility map is constructed using a cross-validated logistic regression model. A novel element of the approach is that landslide susceptibility is calculated for individual hillslope sections. The developed thresholds and susceptibility map are combined to assess potential hazards and impacts posed to the national highway network in Scotland.

  1. Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

    KAUST Repository

    Naveau, Philippe

    2016-04-09

    In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

  2. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time variable rainfall thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2014-10-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b), makes use of LAMI rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain-gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult and it provides different outputs. Switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a very straightforward view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain-gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the high spatial variability of the physical features, which affects the relationship between rainfall and landslides, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of 332 rain gauges, it allows monitoring each alert zone separately and warnings can be issued independently from an alert zone to another. An important feature of the warning system is the use of thresholds that may vary in time adapting at the conditions of the rainfall path recorded by the rain-gauges. Depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set, the comparison with the threshold may produce different outcomes. Therefore, a recursive algorithm was developed to check and compare with the thresholds all possible starting times, highlighting the worst scenario and showing in the WebGIS interface at what time and how much the rainfall path has exceeded or will exceed the most critical threshold. Besides forecasting and monitoring the hazard scenario

  3. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2015-04-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

  4. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  5. Rainfall thresholds for the activation of shallow landslides in the Italian Alps: the role of environmental conditioning factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palladino, M. R.; Viero, A.; Turconi, L.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Melillo, M.; Luino, F.; Deganutti, A. M.; Guzzetti, F.

    2018-02-01

    The aim of the present work is to investigate the role exerted by selected environmental factors in the activation of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides and to identify site-specific rainfall thresholds. The study concerns the Italian Alps. The region is exposed to widespread slope instability phenomena due to its geological, morphological and climatic features. Furthermore, the high level of anthropization that characterizes wide portions of the territory increases the associated risk. Hence, the analysis of potential predisposing factors influencing landslides triggering is worthwhile to improve the current prediction skills and to enhance the preparedness and the response to these natural hazards. During the last years, the Italian National Research Council's Research Institute for Hydro-geological Protection (CNR-IRPI) has contributed to the analysis of triggering conditions for rainfall-induced landslides in the framework of a national project. The project, funded by the National Department for Civil Protection (DPC), focuses on the identification of the empirical rainfall thresholds for the activation of shallow landslides in Italy. The first outcomes of the project reveal a certain variability of the pluviometric conditions responsible for the mass movements activation, when different environmental settings are compared. This variability is probably related to the action of local environmental factors, such as lithology, climatic regime or soil characteristics. Based on this hypothesis, the present study aims to identify separated domains within the Italian Alps, where different triggering conditions exist and different countermeasures are needed for risk prevention. For this purpose, we collected information concerning 511 landslides activated in the period 2000-2012 and reconstructed 453 rainfall events supposed to be responsible for the activations. Then, we selected a set of thematic maps to represent the hypothesised landslide conditioning factors

  6. Comparison of Threshold Detection Methods for the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD): Application to the NOAA-NCDC Daily Rainfall Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deidda, Roberto; Mamalakis, Antonis; Langousis, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    One of the most crucial issues in statistical hydrology is the estimation of extreme rainfall from data. To that extent, based on asymptotic arguments from Extreme Excess (EE) theory, several studies have focused on developing new, or improving existing methods to fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to rainfall excesses above a properly selected threshold u. The latter is generally determined using various approaches that can be grouped into three basic classes: a) non-parametric methods that locate the changing point between extreme and non-extreme regions of the data, b) graphical methods where one studies the dependence of the GPD parameters (or related metrics) to the threshold level u, and c) Goodness of Fit (GoF) metrics that, for a certain level of significance, locate the lowest threshold u that a GPD model is applicable. In this work, we review representative methods for GPD threshold detection, discuss fundamental differences in their theoretical bases, and apply them to daily rainfall records from the NOAA-NCDC open-access database (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-daily/). We find that non-parametric methods that locate the changing point between extreme and non-extreme regions of the data are generally not reliable, while graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on limiting arguments for the upper distribution tail lead to unrealistically high thresholds u. The latter is expected, since one checks the validity of the limiting arguments rather than the applicability of a GPD distribution model. Better performance is demonstrated by graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on GPD properties. Finally, we discuss the effects of data quantization (common in hydrologic applications) on the estimated thresholds. Acknowledgments: The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General

  7. Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings based on the DFFG method in Yunnan province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, M.; Wang, H.; Chen, Y.; Tang, G.; Hong, Z.; Zhang, K.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods, one of the deadliest natural hazards worldwide due to their multidisciplinary nature, rank highly in terms of heavy damage and casualties. Such as in the United States, flash flood is the No.1 cause of death and the No. 2 most deadly weather-related hazard among all storm-related hazards, with approximately 100 lives lost each year. According to China Floods and Droughts Disasters Bullet in 2015 (http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/zgshzhgb), about 935 deaths per year on average were caused by flash floods from 2000 to 2015, accounting for 73 % of the fatalities due to floods. Therefore, significant efforts have been made toward understanding flash flood processes as well as modeling and forecasting them, it still remains challenging because of their short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This study advances the use of high-resolution Global Precipitation Measurement forecasts (GPMs), disaster data obtained from the government officials in 2011 and 2016, and the improved Distributed Flash Flood Guidance (DFFG) method combining the Distributed Hydrologic Model and Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. The objectives of this paper are (1) to examines changes in flash flood occurrence, (2) to estimate the effect of the rainfall spatial variability ,(2) to improve the lead time in flash floods warning and get the rainfall threshold, (3) to assess the DFFG method applicability in Dongchuan catchments, and (4) to yield the probabilistic information about the forecast hydrologic response that accounts for the locational uncertainties of the GPMs. Results indicate: (1) flash flood occurrence increased in the study region, (2) the occurrence of predicted flash floods show high sensitivity to total infiltration and soil water content, (3) the DFFG method is generally capable of making accurate predictions of flash flood events in terms of their locations and time of occurrence, and (4) the accumulative rainfall over a certain time span is an

  8. Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

    KAUST Repository

    Naveau, Philippe; Huser, Raphaë l; Ribereau, Pierre; Hannart, Alexis

    2016-01-01

    context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces

  9. A methodology to track temporal dynamics and rainfall thresholds of landslide processes in the East African Rift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monsieurs, Elise; Jacobs, Liesbet; Kervyn, François; Kirschbaum, Dalia; d'Oreye, Nicolas; Derauw, Dominique; Kervyn, Matthieu; Nobile, Adriano; Trefois, Philippe; Dewitte, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    The East African rift valley is a major tectonic feature that shapes Central Africa and defines linear-shaped lowlands between highland ranges due to the action of geologic faults associated to earthquakes and volcanism. The region of interest, covering the Virunga Volcanic Province in eastern DRC, western Rwanda and Burundi, and southwest Uganda, is threatened by a rare combination of several types of geohazards, while it is also one of the most densely populated region of Africa. These geohazards can globally be classified as seismic, volcanic and landslide hazards. Landslides, include a wide range of ground movements, such as rock falls, deep failure of slopes and shallow debris flows. Landslides are possibly the most important geohazard in terms of recurring impact on the populations, causing fatalities every year and resulting in structural and functional damage to infrastructure and private properties, as well as serious disruptions of the organization of societies. Many landslides are observed each year in the whole region, and their occurrence is clearly linked to complex topographic, lithologic and vegetation signatures coupled with heavy rainfall events, which is the main triggering factor. The source mechanisms underlying landslide triggering and dynamics in the region of interest are still poorly understood, even though in recent years, some progress has been made towards appropriate data collection. Taking into account difficulties of field accessibility, we present a methodology to study landslide processes by multi-scale and multi-sensor remote sensing data from very high to low resolution (Pléiades, TRMM, CosmoSkyMed, Sentinel). The research will address the evolution over time of such data combined with other earth observations (seismic ground based networks, catalogues, rain gauge networks, GPS surveying, field observations) to detect and study landslide occurrence, dynamics and evolution. This research aims to get insights into the rainfall

  10. Benefits and limitations of using the weather radar for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris flows. Case study from Catalonia (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abancó, C.; Hürlimann, M.; Sempere, D.; Berenguer, M.

    2012-04-01

    Torrential processes such as debris flows or hyperconcentrated flows are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They occur in steep torrents and suppose a high risk for the human settlements. Rainfall is the most common triggering factor for debris flows. The rainfall threshold defines the rainfall conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to provoke one or more events. Many different types of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering have been defined. Direct measurements of rainfall data are normally not available from a point next to or in the surroundings of the initiation area of the landslide. For this reason, most of the thresholds published for debris flows have been established by data measured at the nearest rain gauges (often located several km far from the landslide). Only in very few cases, the rainfall data to analyse the triggering conditions of the debris flows have been obtained by weather (Doppler) radar. Radar devices present certain limitations in mountainous regions due to undesired reboots, but their main advantage is that radar data can be obtained for any point of the territory. The objective of this work was to test the use of the weather radar data for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris-flow triggering. Thus, rainfall data obtained from 3 to 5 rain gauges and from radar were compared for a dataset of events occurred in Catalonia (Spain). The goal was to determine in which cases the description of the rainfall episode (in particular the maximum intensity) had been more accurate. The analysed dataset consists of: 1) three events occurred in the Rebaixader debris-flow monitoring station (Axial Pyrenees) including two hyperconcentrated flows and one debris flow; 2) one debris-flow event occurred in the Port Ainé ski resort (Axial Pyrenees); 3) one debris-flow event in Montserrat (Mediterranean Coastal range). The comparison of the hyetographs from the

  11. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.

    1984-01-01

    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  12. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

  13. Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2013-04-01

    Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed

  14. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

  15. Darfur: rainfall and conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

    2008-07-01

    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972 2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.

  16. Darfur: rainfall and conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

    2008-01-01

    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

  17. Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

    2009-12-01

    antecedent rainfall in triggering landslides. It is noticed that a moderate correlation exists between the antecedent rainfalls of 3 to 10 days and the daily rainfall at failure in the Nepal Himalaya. The rainfall thresholds are utilized to develop early warning systems. Taking reference of the intensity-duration threshold and normalized rainfall intensity threshold, two proto-type models of early warning systems (RIEWS and N-RIEWS) are proposed. Early warning models show less time for evacuation in the case of short duration and high intensity rainfall, whereas for long duration rainfall, warning time is enough and when warning information disseminate to the people, people will aware to possible landslide risk. In the meantime, they will be mentally ready to tackle with possible disaster of coming hours or days and will avoid the consequences. On the basis of coarse hydro-meteorological data of developing country like Nepal, this simple and rather easy model of early warning will certainly help to reduce fatalities from landslides.

  18. Apply data mining to analyze the rainfall of landslide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Chou-Yuan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Taiwan is listed as extremely dangerous country which suffers from many disasters. The disasters from the landslide result in the loss of agricultural productions, life and property and so on. Many researchers concern about the disasters of landslide, but there are few discussions for the threshold of rainfall for landslide. In this paper, data mining is applied to establish rules and the threshold of rainfall for landslide in Huafan University, Taiwan. These used variables include rainfall, insolation, insolation rate, averaged humidity, averaged temperature, wind speed, and the tilt of inclinometer. The inclinometer is an important instrument for measuring tilt, elevation or depression of an object with respect to gravity. There are 26 inclinometers in Talun mountain area of Huafan University. In this research, the used data were collected from January 2008 to July 2014. In the proposed approach, the regression analysis is used to predict rainfall first. Then, decision tree is used to obtain decision rules and set the threshold of rainfall for landslide. The output of this approach can provide more information for understanding the change of rainfall. The threshold of rainfall could also provide useful information to maintain the security for Huafan University.

  19. Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vessia, G.; Parise, M.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Rossi, M.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

    2014-04-01

    Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

  20. Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Hearman

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2 for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2. Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time

  1. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  2. Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bel, Coraline; Liébault, Frédéric; Navratil, Oldrich; Eckert, Nicolas; Bellot, Hervé; Fontaine, Firmin; Laigle, Dominique

    2017-08-01

    This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity-duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

  3. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  4. Total water content thresholds for shallow landslides, Outer Western Carpathians

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bil, M.; Andrašík, R.; Zahradníček, Pavel; Kubeček, J.; Sedonik, J.; Štěpánek, Petr

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 2 (2016), s. 337-347 ISSN 1612-510X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-19831S; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : data quality -control * debris flows * rainfall thresholds * equivalent * depth * failures * example * europe * model * Landslides * Threshold * Snowmelt * Time series * Antecedent rainfall * Outer Western Carpathians Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.657, year: 2016

  5. Rainfall: State of the Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

  6. Radioactive pollution in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemtland, R.

    1985-01-01

    Routine measurements of radioactivity in rainfall are carried out at the National Institute for Radiation Hygiene, Norway. The report discusses why the method of ion exchange was selected and gives details on how the measurements are performed

  7. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  8. Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

    2018-04-01

    Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

  9. A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

    2017-12-01

    The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

  10. Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

  11. Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

  12. Rainfall Stochastic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  13. DOE approach to threshold quantities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.; Kluk, A.F.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC)

    1985-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the concept of threshold quantities for use in determining which waste materials must be handled as radioactive waste and which may be disposed of as nonradioactive waste at its sites. Waste above this concentration level would be managed as radioactive or mixed waste (if hazardous chemicals are present); waste below this level would be handled as sanitary waste. Ideally, the threshold must be set high enough to significantly reduce the amount of waste requiring special handling. It must also be low enough so that waste at the threshold quantity poses a very small health risk and multiple exposures to such waste would still constitute a small health risk. It should also be practical to segregate waste above or below the threshold quantity using available instrumentation. Guidance is being prepared to aid DOE sites in establishing threshold quantity values based on pathways analysis using site-specific parameters (waste stream characteristics, maximum exposed individual, population considerations, and site specific parameters such as rainfall, etc.). A guidance dose of between 0.001 to 1.0 mSv/y (0.1 to 100 mrem/y) was recommended with 0.3 mSv/y (30 mrem/y) selected as the guidance dose upon which to base calculations. Several tasks were identified, beginning with the selection of a suitable pathway model for relating dose to the concentration of radioactivity in the waste. Threshold concentrations corresponding to the guidance dose were determined for waste disposal sites at a selected humid and arid site. Finally, cost-benefit considerations at the example sites were addressed. The results of the various tasks are summarized and the relationship of this effort with related developments at other agencies discussed

  14. Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

    2018-05-01

    Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some

  15. Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Long S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

  16. Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

  17. Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien-Kwei Chien

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS. Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  18. Stochastic modeling of hourly rainfall times series in Campania (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.

    2009-04-01

    protection agency meteorological warning network. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research was co-financed by the Italian Ministry of University, by means of the PRIN 2006 PRIN program, within the research project entitled ‘Definition of critical rainfall thresholds for destructive landslides for civil protection purposes'. REFERENCES Cowpertwait, P.S.P., Kilsby, C.G. and O'Connell, P.E., 2002. A space-time Neyman-Scott model of rainfall: Empirical analysis of extremes, Water Resources Research, 38(8):1-14. Salas, J.D., 1992. Analysis and modeling of hydrological time series, in D.R. Maidment, ed., Handbook of Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York. Heneker, T.M., Lambert, M.F. and Kuczera G., 2001. A point rainfall model for risk-based design, Journal of Hydrology, 247(1-2):54-71.

  19. Landslide prediction system for rainfall induced landslides in Slovenia (Masprem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateja Jemec Auflič

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we introduce a landslide prediction system for modelling the probabilities of landslides through time in Slovenia (Masprem. The system to forecast rainfall induced landslides is based on the landslide susceptibility map, landslide triggering rainfall threshold values and the precipitation forecasting model. Through the integrated parameters a detailed framework of the system, from conceptual to operational phases, is shown. Using fuzzy logic the landslide prediction is calculated. Potential landslide areas are forecasted on a national scale (1: 250,000 and on a local scale (1: 25,000 for fie selected municipalities where the exposure of inhabitants, buildings and different type of infrastructure is displayed, twice daily. Due to different rainfall patterns that govern landslide occurrences, the system for landslide prediction considers two different rainfall scenarios (M1 and M2. The landslides predicted by the two models are compared with a landslide inventory to validate the outputs. In this study we highlight the rainfall event that lasted from the 9th to the 14th of September 2014 when abundant precipitation triggered over 800 slope failures around Slovenia and caused large material damage. Results show that antecedent rainfall plays an important role, according to the comparisons of the model (M1 where antecedent rainfall is not considered. Although in general the landslides areas are over-predicted and largely do not correspond to the landslide inventory, the overall performance indicates that the system is able to capture the crucial factors in determining the landslide location. Additional calibration of input parameters and the landslide inventory as well as improved spatially distributed rainfall forecast data can further enhance the model's prediction.

  20. Acidity in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tisue, G.T.; Kacoyannakis, J.

    1975-01-01

    The reported increasing acidity of rainfall raises many interesting ecological and chemical questions. In spite of extensive studies in Europe and North America there are, for example, great uncertainties in the relative contributions of strong and weak acids to the acid-base properties of rainwater. Unravelling this and similar problems may require even more rigorous sample collection and analytical procedures than previously employed. Careful analysis of titration curves permits inferences to be made regarding chemical composition, the possible response of rainwater to further inputs of acidic components to the atmosphere, and the behavior to be expected when rainwater interacts with the buffers present in biological materials and natural waters. Rainwater samples collected during several precipitation events at Argonne National Laboratory during October and November 1975 have been analyzed for pH, acid and base neutralizing properties, and the ions of ammonium, nitrate, chloride, sulfate, and calcium. The results are tabulated

  1. FROM RAINFALL DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisuru Sendanayake

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are many correlations developed to predict incident solar radiation at a givenlocation developed based on geographical and meteorological parameters. However, allcorrelations depend on accurate measurement and availability of weather data such assunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, maximum and minimumtemperatures etc, which essentially is a costly exercise in terms of equipment andlabour. Sri Lanka being a tropical island of latitudinal change of only 30 along thelength of the country, the meteorological factors govern the amount of incidentradiation. Considering the cloud formation and wind patterns over Sri Lanka as well asthe seasonal rainfall patterns, it can be observed that the mean number of rainy dayscan be used to predict the monthly average daily global radiation which can be used forcalculations in solar related activities conveniently.

  2. Improvement of Statistical Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting with ANN-Based Southwest Monsoon Enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Yi Pan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot 2009, with significant southwest monsoon flow, produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2361 mm in 48 hours. This study hopes to improve a statistical typhoon rainfall forecasting method used over the mountain region of Taiwan via an artificial neural network based southwest monsoon enhancement (ANNSME model. Rainfall data collected at two mountain weather stations, ALiShan and YuShan, are analyzed to establish the relation to the southwest monsoon moisture flux which is calculated at a designated sea area southwest of Taiwan. The results show that the moisture flux, with southwest monsoon flow, transported water vapor during the landfall periods of Typhoons Mindulle, Bilis, Fungwong, Kalmaegi, Haitaing and Morakot. Based on the moisture flux, a linear regression is used to identify an effective value of moisture flux as the threshold flux which can enhance mountain rainfall in southwestern Taiwan. In particular, a feedforward neural network (FNN is applied to estimate the residuals from the linear model to the differences between simulated rainfalls by a typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM and observations. Consequently, the ANNSME model integrates the effective moisture flux, linear rainfall model and the FNN for residuals. Even with very limited training cases, our results indicate that the ANNSME model is robust and suitable for improvement of TRCM rainfall prediction. The improved prediction of the total rainfall and of the multiple rainfall peaks is important for emergency operation.

  3. Analysis of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the Eastern Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portilla Gamboa, M.; Hürlimann, M.; Corominas, J.

    2009-09-01

    The inventory of rainfall-induced mass movements, rainfall data, and slope characteristics are considered the basis of the analysis determining appropriate rainfall thresholds for mass movements in a specific region. The rainfall-induced landslide thresholds established in the literature for the Catalan Pyrenees have been formulated referring to the rainfall events of November 1982, September 1992, December 1997, and others occurred after 1999. It has been shown that a rainfall intensity greater than 190 mm in 24 hours without antecedent rainfall would be necessary to produce mass movements (Corominas and Moya, 1999; Corominas et al, 2002) or 51mm in 24h with 61 mm of accumulated rainfall (Marco, 2007). Short duration-high intensity rainfalls have brought about several mass movements in some Catalonian regions throughout the course of twenty-first century (Berga, Bonaigua, Saldes, Montserrat, Port-Ainé, Riu Runer, and Sant Nicolau). Preliminary analysis of these events shows that it is necessary to review the thresholds defined so far and redo the existing inventory of mass movements for the Catalan Pyrenees. The present work shows the usefulness of aerial photographs in the reconstruction of the inventory of historic mass movements (Molló-Queralbs, 1940; Arties-Vielha, 1963; Barruera-Senet, 1940 and 1963, and Berga-Cercs, 1982, 1997 and 2008). Also, it highlights the treatment given to scarce and scattered rainfall data available inside these Catalonia’s regions, and the application of Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) in the management of the gathered information. The results acquired until now show that the historic rainfall events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees have yielded many more mass movements than those reported in the literature. Besides, it can be said that the thresholds formulated for the Pyrenees are valid for longstanding regional rainfalls, and not for local downpours. In the latter cases it should be necessary to take into account the

  4. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Wesson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  5. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  6. CARA Risk Assessment Thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, M. D.

    2016-01-01

    Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

  7. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  8. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user1

    extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

  9. Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2018-01-01

    Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

  10. Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

  11. Threshold quantum cryptography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokunaga, Yuuki; Okamoto, Tatsuaki; Imoto, Nobuyuki

    2005-01-01

    We present the concept of threshold collaborative unitary transformation or threshold quantum cryptography, which is a kind of quantum version of threshold cryptography. Threshold quantum cryptography states that classical shared secrets are distributed to several parties and a subset of them, whose number is greater than a threshold, collaborates to compute a quantum cryptographic function, while keeping each share secretly inside each party. The shared secrets are reusable if no cheating is detected. As a concrete example of this concept, we show a distributed protocol (with threshold) of conjugate coding

  12. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  13. Theory of threshold phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hategan, Cornel

    2002-01-01

    Theory of Threshold Phenomena in Quantum Scattering is developed in terms of Reduced Scattering Matrix. Relationships of different types of threshold anomalies both to nuclear reaction mechanisms and to nuclear reaction models are established. Magnitude of threshold effect is related to spectroscopic factor of zero-energy neutron state. The Theory of Threshold Phenomena, based on Reduced Scattering Matrix, does establish relationships between different types of threshold effects and nuclear reaction mechanisms: the cusp and non-resonant potential scattering, s-wave threshold anomaly and compound nucleus resonant scattering, p-wave anomaly and quasi-resonant scattering. A threshold anomaly related to resonant or quasi resonant scattering is enhanced provided the neutron threshold state has large spectroscopic amplitude. The Theory contains, as limit cases, Cusp Theories and also results of different nuclear reactions models as Charge Exchange, Weak Coupling, Bohr and Hauser-Feshbach models. (author)

  14. ANÁLISIS DE UMBRALES EMPÍRICOS DE LLUVIA PARA EL PRONÓSTICO DE MOVIMIENTOS EN MASA EN EL VALLE DE ABURRÁ, COLOMBIA ANÁLISE DE LIMIARES EMPÍRICOS DE PRECIPITAÇÃO PARA O PROGNÓSTICO DE MOVIMENTOS EM MASSA NO VALE DE ABURRÁ, COLÔMBIA ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS FOR THE PROGNOSIS OF LANDSLIDES IN THE ABURRÁ VALLEY, COLOMBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edier Aristizábal

    2011-06-01

    of slope geomaterials by human actions or natural processes, such as weathering, and triggered by external factors like rainfall or earthquakes. These events have demonstrated throughout history its destructive capacity, causing huge human and economic losses, especially in tropical and mountainous terrains, such as the Aburrá Valley. For this reason new studies on rainfall forecasting, real-time monitoring and the definition of critical rainfall thresholds have become essential tools for the implementation of early warning systems. This analysis of critical rainfall thresholds for landslides forecasting in the Aburrá Valley was performed by an empirical procedure, using a database of mass movements and a database of precipitation with 15-min temporal resolution. Accumulated rainfall for every mass movement was estimated for short-term -LA- (1, 3, 5 and 7 days and long-term -LAA- (5, 10, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days. The results show that the major determinant for the occurrence of mass movements in the Aburrá Valley is the LAA. The data indicate that mass movements used in the analysis occurred for LAA over 60 mm for 30 days, 160 mm for 60 days and 200 mm for 90 days. However, it is necessary to evaluate in detail this type of analysis and thresholds, widely performed in the world, clearly influenced, due to they generally do not consider those rainy days when there were no mass movements. Therefore further studies should be carried out based on analysis of rainfall series and exceedance probabilities.

  15. NEXRAD Rainfall Data: Eureka, California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 (WSR-88D) measurements were used to support AMSR-E rainfall validation efforts in Eureka, California,...

  16. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    (snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

  17. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

    2016-01-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to qu...

  18. Definition of Pluviometric Thresholds For A Real Time Flood Forecasting System In The Arno Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amadio, P.; Mancini, M.; Mazzetti, P.; Menduni, G.; Nativi, S.; Rabuffetti, D.; Ravazzani, G.; Rosso, R.

    The pluviometric flood forecasting thresholds are an easy method that helps river flood emergency management collecting data from limited area meteorologic model or telemetric raingauges. The thresholds represent the cumulated rainfall depth which generate critic discharge for a particular section. The thresholds were calculated for different sections of Arno river and for different antecedent moisture condition using the flood event distributed hydrologic model FEST. The model inputs were syntethic hietographs with different shape and duration. The system realibility has been verified by generating 500 year syntethic rainfall for 3 important subwatersheds of the studied area. A new technique to consider spatial variability of rainfall and soil properties effects on hydrograph has been investigated. The "Geomorphologic Weights" were so calculated. The alarm system has been implemented in a dedicated software (MIMI) that gets measured and forecast rainfall data from Autorità di Bacino and defines the state of the alert of the river sections.

  19. Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.

    2009-12-01

    -mum intensity of rain within a short period of time (1-3 hours) during a storm is most critical for triggering of debris flows. Therefore empirical methods developed for prediction of initiation of debris flows include both long-duration and short-duration rain-fall. More recent research has focused on the spatial distribution of unstable areas and on better spatial resolution of the occurrence of landslide-triggering precipitation events. Spatial distribution can be assessed by analyzing the stability conditions for shallow landslides if reasonable estimates of strength parameters are available. In general, two different approaches may be adopted for the assessment of threshold values for rainfall-induced landslides: empirical methods that are based on past observations and statistical analyses, and numerical analyses that are based on geo-mechanical modelling. The former approach together with very short-term weather forecasting (now-casting) are commonly used in the design of early warning systems for debris flows.

  20. Soil water storage, rainfall and runoff relationships in a tropical dry forest catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrick, Kegan K.; Branfireun, Brian A.

    2014-12-01

    In forested catchments, the exceedance of rainfall and antecedent water storage thresholds is often required for runoff generation, yet to our knowledge these threshold relationships remain undescribed in tropical dry forest catchments. We, therefore, identified the controls of streamflow activation and the timing and magnitude of runoff in a tropical dry forest catchment near the Pacific coast of central Mexico. During a 52 day transition phase from the dry to wet season, soil water movement was dominated by vertical flow which continued until a threshold soil moisture content of 26% was reached at 100 cm below the surface. This satisfied a 162 mm storage deficit and activated streamflow, likely through lateral subsurface flow pathways. High antecedent soil water conditions were maintained during the wet phase but had a weak influence on stormflow. We identified a threshold value of 289 mm of summed rainfall and antecedent soil water needed to generate >4 mm of stormflow per event. Above this threshold, stormflow response and magnitude was almost entirely governed by rainfall event characteristics and not antecedent soil moisture conditions. Our results show that over the course of the wet season in tropical dry forests the dominant controls on runoff generation changed from antecedent soil water and storage to the depth of rainfall.

  1. Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

  2. Analysis and Modeling of Time-Correlated Characteristics of Rainfall-Runoff Similarity in the Upstream Red River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli Sang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We constructed a similarity model (based on Euclidean distance between rainfall and runoff to study time-correlated characteristics of rainfall-runoff similar patterns in the upstream Red River Basin and presented a detailed evaluation of the time correlation of rainfall-runoff similarity. The rainfall-runoff similarity was used to determine the optimum similarity. The results showed that a time-correlated model was found to be capable of predicting the rainfall-runoff similarity in the upstream Red River Basin in a satisfactory way. Both noised and denoised time series by thresholding the wavelet coefficients were applied to verify the accuracy of model. And the corresponding optimum similar sets obtained as the equation solution conditions showed an interesting and stable trend. On the whole, the annual mean similarity presented a gradually rising trend, for quantitatively estimating comprehensive influence of climate change and of human activities on rainfall-runoff similarity.

  3. Extreme Rainfall In A City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkemdirim, Lawrence

    Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

  4. Influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Guan, Yuntao; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2013-02-01

    The accuracy and reliability of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes are important for stormwater management decision making. The commonly adopted approach where only a limited number of factors are used to predict urban stormwater quality may not adequately represent the complexity of the quality response to a rainfall event or site-to-site differences to support efficient treatment design. This paper discusses an investigation into the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality in order to investigate the potential areas for errors in current stormwater quality modelling practices. It was found that the influence of rainfall characteristics on pollutant wash-off is step-wise based on specific thresholds. This means that a modelling approach where the wash-off process is predicted as a continuous function of rainfall intensity and duration is not appropriate. Additionally, other than conventional catchment characteristics, namely, land use and impervious surface fraction, other catchment characteristics such as impervious area layout, urban form and site specific characteristics have an important influence on both, pollutant build-up and wash-off processes. Finally, the use of solids as a surrogate to estimate other pollutant species was found to be inappropriate. Individually considering build-up and wash-off processes for each pollutant species should be the preferred option. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Threshold Signature Schemes Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasiya Victorovna Beresneva

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to an investigation of threshold signature schemes. The systematization of the threshold signature schemes was done, cryptographic constructions based on interpolation Lagrange polynomial, elliptic curves and bilinear pairings were examined. Different methods of generation and verification of threshold signatures were explored, the availability of practical usage of threshold schemes in mobile agents, Internet banking and e-currency was shown. The topics of further investigation were given and it could reduce a level of counterfeit electronic documents signed by a group of users.

  6. Particles near threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, T.; Willenbrock, S.

    1993-01-01

    We propose returning to the definition of the width of a particle in terms of the pole in the particle's propagator. Away from thresholds, this definition of width is equivalent to the standard perturbative definition, up to next-to-leading order; however, near a threshold, the two definitions differ significantly. The width as defined by the pole position provides more information in the threshold region than the standard perturbative definition and, in contrast with the perturbative definition, does not vanish when a two-particle s-wave threshold is approached from below

  7. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  8. Commercial application of rainfall simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loch, Rob J.

    2010-05-01

    Landloch Pty Ltd is a commercial consulting firm, providing advice on a range of land management issues to the mining and construction industries in Australia. As part of the company's day-to-day operations, rainfall simulation is used to assess material erodibility and to investigate a range of site attributes. (Landloch does carry out research projects, though such are not its core business.) When treated as an everyday working tool, several aspects of rainfall simulation practice are distinctively modified. Firstly, the equipment used is regularly maintained, and regularly upgraded with a primary focus on ease, safety, and efficiency of use and on reliability of function. As well, trained and experienced technical support is considered essential. Landloch's chief technician has over 10 years experience in running rainfall simulators at locations across Australia and in Africa and the Pacific. Secondly, the specific experimental conditions established for each set of rainfall simulator runs are carefully considered to ensure that they accurately represent the field conditions to which the data will be subsequently applied. Considerations here include: • wetting and drying cycles to ensure material consolidation and/or cementation if appropriate; • careful attention to water quality if dealing with clay soils or with amendments such as gypsum; • strong focus on ensuring that the erosion processes considered are those of greatest importance to the field situation of concern; and • detailed description of both material and plot properties, to increase the potential for data to be applicable to a wider range of projects and investigations. Other important company procedures include: • For each project, the scientist or engineer responsible for analysing and reporting rainfall simulator data is present during the running of all field plots, as it is essential that they be aware of any specific conditions that may have developed when the plots were subjected

  9. Relationship between rainfall and shallow landslides in the southern Apuan Alps (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Giannecchini

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Apuan Alps region is one of the rainiest areas in Italy (more than 3000 mm/year, in which frequently heavy and concentrated rainfall occurs. This is particularly due to its geographical position and conformation: the Apuan chain is located along the northern Tuscan coast, close to the Ligurian Sea, and the main peaks reach almost 2000 m. In several cases, the storms that hit the area have triggered many shallow landslides (soil slip-debris flows, which exposed the population to serious risks (during the 19 June 1996 rainstorm about 1000 landslides were triggered and 14 people died. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds is very important in order to prepare efficient alarm systems in a region particularly dedicated to tourism and marble activities. With the aim of contributing to the landslide hazard evaluation of the southern Apuan Alps territory (upper Versilia area, a detailed analysis of the main pluviometric events was carried out. The data recorded at the main rain gauge of the area from 1975 to 2002 were analysed and compared with the occurrence of soil slips, in order to examine the relationship between soil slip initiation and rainfall. The most important rainstorms which triggered shallow landslides occurred in 1984, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2000. Many attempts were made to obtain a possible correlation between rainfall parameters and the occurrence of soil slip phenomena and to identify the local rainfall threshold for triggering shallow landslides. A threshold for soil slip activity in terms of mean intensity, duration and mean annual precipitation (MAP was defined for the study area. The thresholds obtained for the southern Apuan Alps were also compared with those proposed by other authors for several regions in the world. This emphasized the high value of the rain threshold for shallow landslide activity in the Apuan area. The high threshold is probably also linked to the high mean annual precipitation and to the high

  10. Forecasting the heavy rainfall during Himalayan flooding—June 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anumeha Dube

    2014-08-01

    Verification of the synoptic features in forecasts of the two models suggests that NCUM accurately captures the circulation features as compared to T574. Further verification of this event is carried out based on the contiguous rain area (CRA technique. CRA verification is used in computing the total mean square error (MSE which is based on displacement, volume and pattern errors. This verification technique also, confirms the better skill of NCUM over T574 in terms of forecast peak rainfall amounts, volume and average rain rate, lower MSE and root mean square error (RMSE as well as having higher hit rates and lower misses and false alarm rates for different rainfall thresholds from Day 1 to Day 5 forecasts.

  11. Where do forests influence rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2017-04-01

    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  12. Simulation of Tropical Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bader, J.; Latif, M.

    2002-12-01

    The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) - especially the role of the tropical Atlantic meridional SST gradient and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - on precipitation is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4/T42. Ensemble experiments - driven with observed SST - show that Atlantic SST has a significant influence on precipitation over West Africa and northeast Brazil. SST sensitivity experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropical Atlantic caused only significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive anomaly (SSTA) increasing rainfall and a negative SSTA reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, especially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. The influence of SST on precipitation over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) was also investigated. Three experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced/decreased or decreased/enhanced by one Kelvin in the North/South Atlantic and increased by two Kelvin in the Nino3 ocean area. All experiments caused significant changes over Nordeste, with an enhanced/reduced SST gradient in the Atlantic increasing/reducing rainfall. The response was nearly linear. The main effect of the Atlantic SST gradient was a shift of the ITCZ, caused by trade wind changes. The ''El Nino'' event generates a significant reduction in Nordeste rainfall. A significant positive SLP anomaly occurs in northeast Brazil which may be associated with the descending branch of the Walker circulation. Also a significant positive SLP over the Atlantic from 30S to 10N north occurs. This results in a reduced SLP

  13. Analysis of rainfall preceding debris flows on the Smědavská hora Mt., Jizerské hory Mts., Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Smolíková, J.; Blahůt, Jan; Vilímek, V.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 4 (2016), s. 683-696 ISSN 1612-510X Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * rainfall pattern * rainfall thresholds * Jizerské hory Mts. * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 3.657, year: 2016

  14. A method for combining passive microwave and infrared rainfall observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummerow, Christian; Giglio, Louis

    1995-01-01

    Because passive microwave instruments are confined to polar-orbiting satellites, rainfall estimates must interpolate across long time periods, during which no measurements are available. In this paper the authors discuss a technique that allows one to partially overcome the sampling limitations by using frequent infrared observations from geosynchronous platforms. To accomplish this, the technique compares all coincident microwave and infrared observations. From each coincident pair, the infrared temperature threshold is selected that corresponds to an area equal to the raining area observed in the microwave image. The mean conditional rainfall rate as determined from the microwave image is then assigned to pixels in the infrared image that are colder than the selected threshold. The calibration is also applied to a fixed threshold of 235 K for comparison with established infrared techniques. Once a calibration is determined, it is applied to all infrared images. Monthly accumulations for both methods are then obtained by summing rainfall from all available infrared images. Two examples are used to evaluate the performance of the technique. The first consists of a one-month period (February 1988) over Darwin, Australia, where good validation data are available from radar and rain gauges. For this case it was found that the technique approximately doubled the rain inferred by the microwave method alone and produced exceptional agreement with the validation data. The second example involved comparisons with atoll rain gauges in the western Pacific for June 1989. Results here are overshadowed by the fact that the hourly infrared estimates from established techniques, by themselves, produced very good correlations with the rain gauges. The calibration technique was not able to improve upon these results.

  15. Infiltration and Runoff Measurements on Steep Burned Hillslopes Using a Rainfall Simulator with Variable Rain Intensities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinner, David A.; Moody, John A.

    2008-01-01

    Multiple rainfall intensities were used in rainfall-simulation experiments designed to investigate the infiltration and runoff from 1-square-meter plots on burned hillslopes covered by an ash layer of varying thickness. The 1-square-meter plots were on north- and south-facing hillslopes in an area burned by the Overland fire northwest of Boulder near Jamestown on the Front Range of Colorado. A single-nozzle, wide-angle, multi-intensity rain simulator was developed to investigate the infiltration and runoff on steep (30- to 40-percent gradient) burned hillslopes covered with ash. The simulated rainfall was evaluated for spatial variability, drop size, and kinetic energy. Fourteen rainfall simulations, at three intensities (about 20 millimeters per hour [mm/h], 35 mm/h, and 50 mm/h), were conducted on four plots. Measurements during and after the simulations included runoff, rainfall, suspended-sediment concentrations, surface ash layer thickness, soil moisture, soil grain size, soil lost on ignition, and plot topography. Runoff discharge reached a steady state within 7 to 26 minutes. Steady infiltration rates with the 50-mm/h application rainfall intensity approached 20?35 mm/h. If these rates are projected to rainfall application intensities used in many studies of burned area runoff production (about 80 mm/h), the steady discharge rates are on the lower end of measurements from other studies. Experiments using multiple rainfall intensities (three) suggest that runoff begins at rainfall intensities around 20 mm/h at the 1-square-meter scale, an observation consistent with a 10-mm/h rainfall intensity threshold needed for runoff initiation that has been reported in the literature.

  16. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    digital elevation model in ArcGIS environment. Validation of the selected interpolation methods were based on goodness of fit between gauged (observed) and generated rainfall derived from residual errors statistics, coefficient of determination (R 2), mean absolute errors (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) statistics. Analyses showed 90 % chance of below cropping-threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for 1 year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (e.g. coefficient of variation (CV) = 0.56, 0.47, 0.59) and in number of rainy days (e.g. CV = 0.88, 0.53) in Machang'a and Kiritiri, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (e.g. CV = 0.48, 0.49 and 0.76) with high probabilities (0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang'a. Dry spell probabilities within growing months were high, e.g. 81 and 60 % in Machang'a and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  17. Double Photoionization Near Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehlitz, Ralf

    2007-01-01

    The threshold region of the double-photoionization cross section is of particular interest because both ejected electrons move slowly in the Coulomb field of the residual ion. Near threshold both electrons have time to interact with each other and with the residual ion. Also, different theoretical models compete to describe the double-photoionization cross section in the threshold region. We have investigated that cross section for lithium and beryllium and have analyzed our data with respect to the latest results in the Coulomb-dipole theory. We find that our data support the idea of a Coulomb-dipole interaction.

  18. Thresholds in radiobiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katz, R.; Hofmann, W.

    1982-01-01

    Interpretations of biological radiation effects frequently use the word 'threshold'. The meaning of this word is explored together with its relationship to the fundamental character of radiation effects and to the question of perception. It is emphasised that although the existence of either a dose or an LET threshold can never be settled by experimental radiobiological investigations, it may be argued on fundamental statistical grounds that for all statistical processes, and especially where the number of observed events is small, the concept of a threshold is logically invalid. (U.K.)

  19. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  20. Regional Seismic Threshold Monitoring

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kvaerna, Tormod

    2006-01-01

    ... model to be used for predicting the travel times of regional phases. We have applied these attenuation relations to develop and assess a regional threshold monitoring scheme for selected subregions of the European Arctic...

  1. Thresholds in Xeric Hydrology and Biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meixner, T.; Brooks, P. D.; Simpson, S. C.; Soto, C. D.; Yuan, F.; Turner, D.; Richter, H.

    2011-12-01

    Due to water limitation, thresholds in hydrologic and biogeochemical processes are common in arid and semi-arid systems. Some of these thresholds such as those focused on rainfall runoff relationships have been well studied. However to gain a full picture of the role that thresholds play in driving the hydrology and biogeochemistry of xeric systems a full view of the entire array of processes at work is needed. Here a walk through the landscape of xeric systems will be conducted illustrating the powerful role of hydrologic thresholds on xeric system biogeochemistry. To understand xeric hydro-biogeochemistry two key ideas need to be focused on. First, it is important to start from a framework of reaction and transport. Second an understanding of the temporal and spatial components of thresholds that have a large impact on hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes needs to be offered. In the uplands themselves episodic rewetting and drying of soils permits accelerated biogeochemical processing but also more gradual drainage of water through the subsurface than expected in simple conceptions of biogeochemical processes. Hydrologic thresholds (water content above hygroscopic) results in a stop start nutrient spiral of material across the landscape since runoff connecting uplands to xeric perennial riparian is episodic and often only transports materials a short distance (100's of m). This episodic movement results in important and counter-intuitive nutrient inputs to riparian zones but also significant processing and uptake of nutrients. The floods that transport these biogeochemicals also result in significant input to riparian groundwater and may be key to sustaining these critical ecosystems. Importantly the flood driven recharge process itself is a threshold process dependent on flood characteristics (floods greater than 100 cubic meters per second) and antecedent conditions (losing to near neutral gradients). Floods also appear to influence where arid and semi

  2. Threshold guidance update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.

    1986-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the concept of threshold quantities for use in determining which waste materials must be handled as radioactive waste and which may be disposed of as nonradioactive waste at its sites. Waste above this concentration level would be managed as radioactive or mixed waste (if hazardous chemicals are present); waste below this level would be handled as sanitary waste. Last years' activities (1984) included the development of a threshold guidance dose, the development of threshold concentrations corresponding to the guidance dose, the development of supporting documentation, review by a technical peer review committee, and review by the DOE community. As a result of the comments, areas have been identified for more extensive analysis, including an alternative basis for selection of the guidance dose and the development of quality assurance guidelines. Development of quality assurance guidelines will provide a reasonable basis for determining that a given waste stream qualifies as a threshold waste stream and can then be the basis for a more extensive cost-benefit analysis. The threshold guidance and supporting documentation will be revised, based on the comments received. The revised documents will be provided to DOE by early November. DOE-HQ has indicated that the revised documents will be available for review by DOE field offices and their contractors

  3. Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

    2017-02-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high

  4. Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.

    2017-12-01

    While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

  5. Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  6. The washout effects of rainfall on atmospheric particulate pollution in two Chinese cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ling-Chuan; Zhang, Yonghui; Lin, Hualiang; Zeng, Weilin; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Rutherford, Shannon; You, Jing; Ma, Wenjun

    2016-08-01

    Though rainfall is recognized as one of the main mechanisms to reduce atmospheric particulate pollution, few studies have quantified this effect, particularly the corresponding lag effect and threshold. This study aimed to investigate the association between rainfall and air quality using a distributed lag non-linear model. Daily data on ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm and from 2.5 to 10 μm) and meteorological factors were collected in Guangzhou and Xi'an from 2013 to 2014. A better washout effect was found for PM2.5-10 than for PM2.5, and the rainfall thresholds for both particle fractions were 7 mm in Guangzhou and 1 mm in Xi'an. The decrease in PM2.5 levels following rain lasted for 3 and 6 days in Guangzhou and Xi'an, respectively. Rainfall had a better washout effect in Xi'an compared with that in Guangzhou. Findings from this study contribute to a better understanding of the washout effects of rainfall on particulate pollution, which may help to understand the category and sustainability of dust-haze and enforce anthropogenic control measures in time. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. An Assessment of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Products Relative to Ground Observations over East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Wambui Kimani

    2017-05-01

    decreased with an increase in temporal resolution from a monthly to yearly scale. Challenges in retrieving orographic rainfall, especially during the OND season, were identified as the main cause of high underestimations. Underestimation was observed when elevation was <2500 m and above this threshold; overestimation was evident in mountainous areas. CMORPH, CHIRPS, and TRMM showed consistently high performance during both seasons, and this was attributed to their ability to retrieve rainfall of different rainfall regimes.

  8. Near threshold fatigue testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, D. C.; Strum, M. J.

    1993-01-01

    Measurement of the near-threshold fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR) behavior provides a basis for the design and evaluation of components subjected to high cycle fatigue. Typically, the near-threshold fatigue regime describes crack growth rates below approximately 10(exp -5) mm/cycle (4 x 10(exp -7) inch/cycle). One such evaluation was recently performed for the binary alloy U-6Nb. The procedures developed for this evaluation are described in detail to provide a general test method for near-threshold FCGR testing. In particular, techniques for high-resolution measurements of crack length performed in-situ through a direct current, potential drop (DCPD) apparatus, and a method which eliminates crack closure effects through the use of loading cycles with constant maximum stress intensity are described.

  9. Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, T.G.

    1996-01-01

    The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  10. Monitoring and Warning of Landslides Based On Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudhbir, Y.

    Management issues of landslide hazards assume much greater significance in poorest segments of society living in landslide risk prone hilly areas in developing countries. Analysis of the temporal recurrence of landslides shows that disastrous events occur with a frequency higher than the social and economic capacity of these societies to recover from previous events. In the context of landslide hazard management in In- dian Himalayan states this problem assumes much greater significance. Majority of the population lives on hill slopes which experience repeated landsliding activity es- pecially during the summer monsoon rains. Considering the high cost of structural control measures and the lack of necessary spatial database in respect of Quaternary geology, detailed topography and geohydrology etc., there is an acute need to develop a monitoring and warning system which is economical, easy to operate and does not require high technological inputs. Since most of the landslides in these areas are triggered by high incidence of rain, it appears attractive to explore development of a monitoring and warning network based on critical rainfall intensity thresholds. Such an option for management of landslide hazards would also provide useful meteorological data required for assessment of wa- ter resources, soil loss due to erosion, agricultural practices and flood incidence. In this paper, available approaches to the prediction and warning of landslide based on rainfall data will be critically reviewed. Various criteria recommended in litera- ture for threshold rainfall values in rain induced ground movements/failures would be compared and these relationships will be contrasted with the limited data available for the Indian Himalayan landslides. A plan for a network of automatic rain gauges and a suitable warning system will be discussed.

  11. The development rainfall forecasting using kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfi, Mohammad; Hasan, Moh.; Dwidja Purnomo, Kosala

    2018-04-01

    Rainfall forecasting is very interesting for agricultural planing. Rainfall information is useful to make decisions about the plan planting certain commodities. In this studies, the rainfall forecasting by ARIMA and Kalman Filter method. Kalman Filter method is used to declare a time series model of which is shown in the form of linear state space to determine the future forecast. This method used a recursive solution to minimize error. The rainfall data in this research clustered by K-means clustering. Implementation of Kalman Filter method is for modelling and forecasting rainfall in each cluster. We used ARIMA (p,d,q) to construct a state space for KalmanFilter model. So, we have four group of the data and one model in each group. In conclusions, Kalman Filter method is better than ARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in each group. It can be showed from error of Kalman Filter method that smaller than error of ARIMA model.

  12. Threshold factorization redux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chay, Junegone; Kim, Chul

    2018-05-01

    We reanalyze the factorization theorems for the Drell-Yan process and for deep inelastic scattering near threshold, as constructed in the framework of the soft-collinear effective theory (SCET), from a new, consistent perspective. In order to formulate the factorization near threshold in SCET, we should include an additional degree of freedom with small energy, collinear to the beam direction. The corresponding collinear-soft mode is included to describe the parton distribution function (PDF) near threshold. The soft function is modified by subtracting the contribution of the collinear-soft modes in order to avoid double counting on the overlap region. As a result, the proper soft function becomes infrared finite, and all the factorized parts are free of rapidity divergence. Furthermore, the separation of the relevant scales in each factorized part becomes manifest. We apply the same idea to the dihadron production in e+e- annihilation near threshold, and show that the resultant soft function is also free of infrared and rapidity divergences.

  13. Elaborating on Threshold Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rountree, Janet; Robins, Anthony; Rountree, Nathan

    2013-01-01

    We propose an expanded definition of Threshold Concepts (TCs) that requires the successful acquisition and internalisation not only of knowledge, but also its practical elaboration in the domains of applied strategies and mental models. This richer definition allows us to clarify the relationship between TCs and Fundamental Ideas, and to account…

  14. Precipitation thresholds for landslide occurrence near Seattle, Mukilteo, and Everett, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheevel, Caroline R.; Baum, Rex L.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Smith, Joel B.

    2017-04-27

    Shallow landslides along coastal bluffs frequently occur in the railway corridor between Seattle and Everett, Washington. These slides disrupt passenger rail service, both because of required track maintenance and because the railroad owner, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, does not allow passenger travel for 48 hours after a disruptive landslide. Sound Transit, which operates commuter trains in the corridor, is interested in a decision-making tool to help preemptively cancel passenger railway service in dangerous conditions and reallocate resources to alternative transportation.Statistical analysis showed that a majority of landslides along the Seattle-Everett Corridor are strongly correlated with antecedent rainfall, but that 21-37 percent of recorded landslide dates experienced less than 1 inch of precipitation in the 3 days preceding the landslide and less than 4 inches of rain in the 15 days prior to the preceding 3 days. We developed two empirical thresholds to identify precipitation conditions correlated with landslide occurrence. The two thresholds are defined as P3 = 2.16-0.44P15 and P3 = 2.16-0.22P32, where P3 is the cumulative precipitation in the 3 days prior to the considered date and P15 or P32 is the cumulative precipitation in the 15 days or 32 days prior to P3 (all measurements given in inches). The two thresholds, when compared to a previously developed threshold, quantitatively improve the prediction rate.We also investigated rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds to determine whether revision would improve identification of moderate-intensity, landslide-producing storms. New, optimized ID thresholds evaluate rainstorms lasting at least 12 hours and identify landslide-inducing storms that were typically missed by previously published ID thresholds. The main advantage of the ID thresholds appears when they are combined with recent-antecedent thresholds because rainfall conditions that exceed both threshold types are more likely to induce

  15. Centrifuge model tests of rainfall-induced slope failures for the investigation of the initiation conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matziaris, Vasileios; Marshall, Alec; Yu, Hai-Sui

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslides are very common natural disasters which cause damage to properties and infrastructure and may result in the loss of human lives. These phenomena often take place in unsaturated soil slopes and are triggered by the saturation of the soil profile, due to rain infiltration, which leads to a loss of shear strength. The aim of this study is to determine rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides under different initial conditions. Model tests of rainfall-induced landslides are conducted in the Nottingham Centre for Geomechanics 50g-T geotechnical centrifuge. Initially unsaturated plane-strain slope models made with fine silica sand are prepared at varying densities at 1g and accommodated within a climatic chamber which provides controlled environmental conditions. During the centrifuge flight at 60g, rainfall events of varying intensity and duration are applied to the slope models causing the initiation of slope failure. The impact of soil state properties and rainfall characteristics on the landslide initiation process are discussed. The variation of pore water pressures within the slope before, during and after simulated rainfall events is recorded using miniature pore pressure transducers buried in the soil model. Slope deformation is determined by using a high-speed camera and digital image analysis techniques.

  16. Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

  17. [Effects of rainfall intensity on rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on Loess slope land].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Shao, Ming'an

    2006-12-01

    With simulation test, this paper studied the patterns of rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on typical Loess slope land, and analyzed the quantitative relations between the infiltration and redistribution and the movement of soil water and mass, with rainfall intensity as the main affecting factor. The results showed that rainfall intensity had significant effects on the rainfall infiltration and water redistribution in soil, and the microcosmic movement of soil water. The larger the rainfall intensity, the deeper the wetting front of rainfall infiltration and redistribution was, and the wetting front of soil water redistribution had a slower increase velocity than that of rainfall infiltration. The power function of the wetting front with time, and also with rainfall intensity, was fitted well. There was also a quantitative relation between the wetting front of rainfall redistribution and the duration of rainfall. The larger the rainfall intensity, the higher the initial and steady infiltration rates were, and the cumulative infiltration increased faster with time. Moreover, the larger the rainfall intensity, the smaller the wetting front difference was at the top and the end of the slope. With the larger rainfall intensity, both the difference of soil water content and its descending trend between soil layers became more obvious during the redistribution process on slope land.

  18. Modeling of dengue occurrences early warning involving temperature and rainfall factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prama Setia Putra

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To understand dengue transmission process and its vector dynamics and to develop early warning model of dengue occurrences based on mosquito population and host-vector threshold values considering temperature and rainfall. Methods: To obtain the early warning model, mosquito population and host-vector models are developed initially. Both are developed using differential equations. Basic offspring number (R0m and basic reproductive ratio (R0d which are the threshold values are derived from the models under constant parameters assumption. Temperature and rainfall effects on mosquito and dengue are performed in entomological and disease transmission parameters. Some of parameters are set as functions of temperature or rainfall while other parameters are set to be constant. Hereafter, both threshold values are computed using those parameters. Monthly dengue occurrences data are categorized as zero and one values which one means the outbreak does occur in that month. Logistics regression is chosen to bridge the threshold values and categorized data. Threshold values are considered as the input of early warning model. Semarang city is selected as the sample to develop this early waning model. Results: The derived threshold values which are R 0 m and R 0 d show to have relation that mosquito as dengue vector affects transmission of the disease. Result of the early warning model will be a value between zero and one. It is categorized as outbreak does occur when the value is larger than 0.5 while other is categorized as outbreak does not occur. By using single predictor, the model can perform 68% accuracy approximately. Conclusions: The extinction of mosquitoes will be followed by disease disappearance while mosquitoes existence can lead to disease free or endemic states. Model simulations show that mosquito population are more affected by weather factors than human. Involving weather factors implicitly in the threshold value and linking them

  19. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

    2015-04-01

    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  20. Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delson Chikobvu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

  1. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

  2. Hadron production near threshold

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Final state interaction effects in pp → pΛK+ and pd → 3He η reactions are explored near threshold to study the sensitivity of the cross-sections to the pΛ potential and the ηN scattering matrix. The final state scattering wave functions between Λ and p and η and 3He are described rigorously. The Λ production is ...

  3. Casualties and threshold effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mays, C.W.; National Cancer Inst., Bethesda

    1988-01-01

    Radiation effects like cancer are denoted as casualties. Other radiation effects occur almost in everyone when the radiation dose is sufficiently high. One then speaks of radiation effects with a threshold dose. In this article the author puts his doubt about this classification of radiation effects. He argues that some effects of exposure to radiation do not fit in this classification. (H.W.). 19 refs.; 2 figs.; 1 tab

  4. Resonance phenomena near thresholds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, E.; Mueller, M.; Rotter, I.; Technische Univ. Dresden

    1995-12-01

    The trapping effect is investigated close to the elastic threshold. The nucleus is described as an open quantum mechanical many-body system embedded in the continuum of decay channels. An ensemble of compound nucleus states with both discrete and resonance states is investigated in an energy-dependent formalism. It is shown that the discrete states can trap the resonance ones and also that the discrete states can directly influence the scattering cross section. (orig.)

  5. The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

    2013-12-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

  6. Relationship between rainfall and microbiological contamination of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Outbreaks of contamination events in many developing countries occur during periods of peak rainfall. This study presents evidence of direct pulse response of shallow groundwater contamination events to rainfall in Northern Mozambique. The objective of the paper is to establish both a statistical relationship between ...

  7. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  8. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  9. Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-11-01

    Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

  10. Developing empirical relationship between interrill erosion, rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to develop an empirical relationship for interrill erosion based on rainfall intensity, slope steepness and soil types, an interrill erosion experiment was conducted using laboratory rainfall simulator on three soil types (Vertisols, Cambisols and Leptosols) for the highlands of North Shewa Zone of Oromia Region.

  11. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10◦N (north. Kerala) fall into one group and they ...

  12. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  13. Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, W.

    2004-05-01

    A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

  14. A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

  15. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  16. Regional estimation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves using generalized least squares regression of partial duration series statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2002-01-01

    A general framework for regional analysis and modeling of extreme rainfall characteristics is presented. The model is based on the partial duration series (PDS) method that includes in the analysis all events above a threshold level. In the PDS model the average annual number of exceedances...

  17. Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

  18. Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

    2017-04-01

    In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

  19. Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

  20. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

    2016-02-01

    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  1. prediction of rainfall in the southern highlands of tanzania

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    distribution at different places in the world. A study to ... climate indices influence rainfall. It has been observed .... Table 4: Summary of Predictors entered MLR and PCR models for MAM and OND rainfalls. .... from the cumulus clouds; rainfall is.

  2. Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara–Serengeti ... To understand how rainfall influences ostriches, we related changes in ostrich recruitment in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem to rainfall. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  3. Intermediate structure and threshold phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hategan, Cornel

    2004-01-01

    The Intermediate Structure, evidenced through microstructures of the neutron strength function, is reflected in open reaction channels as fluctuations in excitation function of nuclear threshold effects. The intermediate state supporting both neutron strength function and nuclear threshold effect is a micro-giant neutron threshold state. (author)

  4. Coloring geographical threshold graphs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradonjic, Milan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Percus, Allon [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Muller, Tobias [EINDHOVEN UNIV. OF TECH

    2008-01-01

    We propose a coloring algorithm for sparse random graphs generated by the geographical threshold graph (GTG) model, a generalization of random geometric graphs (RGG). In a GTG, nodes are distributed in a Euclidean space, and edges are assigned according to a threshold function involving the distance between nodes as well as randomly chosen node weights. The motivation for analyzing this model is that many real networks (e.g., wireless networks, the Internet, etc.) need to be studied by using a 'richer' stochastic model (which in this case includes both a distance between nodes and weights on the nodes). Here, we analyze the GTG coloring algorithm together with the graph's clique number, showing formally that in spite of the differences in structure between GTG and RGG, the asymptotic behavior of the chromatic number is identical: {chi}1n 1n n / 1n n (1 + {omicron}(1)). Finally, we consider the leading corrections to this expression, again using the coloring algorithm and clique number to provide bounds on the chromatic number. We show that the gap between the lower and upper bound is within C 1n n / (1n 1n n){sup 2}, and specify the constant C.

  5. Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-02-01

    In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

  6. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  7. Using multinomial and imprecise probability for non-parametric modelling of rainfall in Manizales (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a rainfall model constructed by applying non-parametric modelling and imprecise probabilities; these tools were used because there was not enough homogeneous information in the study area. The area’s hydro-logical information regarding rainfall was scarce and existing hydrological time series were not uniform. A distributed extended rainfall model was constructed from so-called probability boxes (p-boxes, multinomial probability distribu-tion and confidence intervals (a friendly algorithm was constructed for non-parametric modelling by combining the last two tools. This model confirmed the high level of uncertainty involved in local rainfall modelling. Uncertainty en-compassed the whole range (domain of probability values thereby showing the severe limitations on information, leading to the conclusion that a detailed estimation of probability would lead to significant error. Nevertheless, rele-vant information was extracted; it was estimated that maximum daily rainfall threshold (70 mm would be surpassed at least once every three years and the magnitude of uncertainty affecting hydrological parameter estimation. This paper’s conclusions may be of interest to non-parametric modellers and decisions-makers as such modelling and imprecise probability represents an alternative for hydrological variable assessment and maybe an obligatory proce-dure in the future. Its potential lies in treating scarce information and represents a robust modelling strategy for non-seasonal stochastic modelling conditions

  8. BAPA Database: Linking landslide occurrence with rainfall in Asturias (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, Pablo; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Jiménez-Sánchez, Montserrat

    2015-04-01

    Asturias is a region in northern Spain with a temperate and humid climate. In this region, slope instability processes are very common and often cause economic losses and, sometimes, human victims. To prevent the geological risk involved, it is of great interest to predict landslide spatial and temporal occurrence. Some previous investigations have shown the importance of rainfall as a trigger factor. Despite the high incidence of these phenomena in Asturias, there are no databases of recent and actual landslides. The BAPA Project (Base de Datos de Argayos del Principado de Asturias - Principality of Asturias Landslide Database) aims to create an inventory of slope instabilities which have occurred between 1980 and 2015. The final goal is to study in detail the relationship between rainfall and slope instabilities in Asturias, establishing precipitation thresholds and soil moisture conditions necessary to instability triggering. This work presents the database progress showing its structure divided into various fields that essentially contain information related to spatial, temporal, geomorphological and damage data.

  9. A global dataset of sub-daily rainfall indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Blenkinsop, S.; Guerreiro, S.; Li, X.; Barbero, R.; Chan, S.; Lenderink, G.; Westra, S.

    2017-12-01

    It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. A new global sub-daily precipitation dataset has been constructed (data collection is ongoing). Metadata for each station has been calculated, detailing record lengths, missing data, station locations. A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community.

  10. Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Shi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

  11. Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

  12. Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

    2016-10-01

    One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

  13. Observed change in extreme daily rainfalls in the French Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2017-04-01

    In spite of a relatively dry mean climate, the Mediterranean regions in Southern France use to experience heavy rainfalls over short durations - typically a few minutes to one day. Here we examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area, where many long homogeneous time-series are available. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series, according to their statistical dependence. This procedure substantially enhances the signal-to-noise ratio. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at +22% (+7% to +39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequencies for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200mm in one day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this risk ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events during the last decades. We argue that the diagnosed trends can hardly be explained without invoking the human influence on climate.

  14. Detection of rainfall-induced landslides on regional seismic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manconi, Andrea; Coviello, Velio; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Picozzi, Matteo

    2017-04-01

    this last category of events, we have applied the approach proposed in Manconi et al. (2016), in order to evaluate the performance of automatic identification, location and first order classification of landslide events trough seismic data only. Our analysis may provide important insights for the development and calibration of landslide identification algorithms, which might be used to enhance the completeness of landslide catalogues by relying on quantitative data. Brunetti, M.T., Peruccacci, S., Antronico, L., Bartolini, D., Deganutti, A.M., Gariano, S.L., Iovine, G., Luciani, S., Luino, F., Melillo, M., Palladino, M.R., Parise, M., Rossi, M., Turconi, L., Vennari, C., Vessia, G., Viero, A., and Guzzetti, F.: Catalogue of Rainfall Events with Shallow Landslides and New Rainfall thresholds in Italy, in Lollino G, Giordan D, Crosta G B, Corominas J, Azzam R, Wasowski J, Sciarra N (eds.), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory - Volume 2, Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, 1575-1579, 2015. Manconi, A., Picozzi, M., Coviello, V., De Santis, F., and Elia, L.: Real-time detection, location, and characterization of rockslides using broadband regional seismic networks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6960-6967, doi:10.1002/2016GL069572, 2016.

  15. Crossing the Petawatt threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perry, M.

    1996-01-01

    A revolutionary new laser called the Petawatt, developed by Lawrence Livermore researchers after an intensive three-year development effort, has produced more than 1,000 trillion (open-quotes petaclose quotes) watts of power, a world record. By crossing the petawatt threshold, the extraordinarily powerful laser heralds a new age in laser research. Lasers that provide a petawatt of power or more in a picosecond may make it possible to achieve fusion using significantly less energy than currently envisioned, through a novel Livermore concept called open-quotes fast ignition.close quotes The petawatt laser will also enable researchers to study the fundamental properties of matter, thereby aiding the Department of Energy's Stockpile Stewardship efforts and opening entirely new physical regimes to study. The technology developed for the Petawatt has also provided several spinoff technologies, including a new approach to laser material processing

  16. Evolution of rainfall in the Sahel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diallo, M.A.

    1995-09-01

    In this note, a number of main meteorological stations has been chosen to analyse the rainfall during the last 30 years in the Sahel (1961 to 1990). Reliable climatological data have been used for this study. The concerned area is limited by the 200 mm isohyet in the north and 600 mm isohyet in the south in the Sahel countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad). The evolution of rainfall has pointed out some similar and significant aspects for all stations studied. Established criteria have been used to characterize the annual rainfall and to determine the years with good rainfall and years of drought in the Sahel. (author). 6 refs, 3 figs

  17. Improving the understanding of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-10-04

    Oct 4, 2016 ... facilities and development of robust methods, especially geosta- tistically-based .... Cathedral Peak historical rainfall dataset, quality control pro- cedures .... used to assess the predictive power of the developed model. The.

  18. 10 Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to ... of crops. There is need for more research attention on the onset of rainfall and ... impacts of adverse weather conditions or.

  19. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and Dongseok Choi. 2. 1. School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M60 1QD, UK. ... This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea. 1. ..... protection. This paper only ...

  20. Variability of rainfall over small areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runnels, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

  1. Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2010-09-01

    One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall

  2. Extreme rainfall events in karst environments: the case study of September 2014 in the Gargano area (southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Trabace, Maria; Marchesini, Ivan; Peruccacci, Silvia; Rossi, Mauro; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Parise, Mario; Brunetti, Maria Teresa

    2015-04-01

    forecasts with empirical rainfall thresholds for the prediction of landslide occurrence. SANF forecasts were compared to the documented landslides and discussed.

  3. [Characteristics of nutrient loss by runoff in sloping arable land of yellow-brown under different rainfall intensities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ling; Liu, De-Fu; Song, Lin-Xu; Cui, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Gei

    2013-06-01

    In order to investigate the loss characteristics of N and P through surface flow and interflow under different rainfall intensities, a field experiment was conducted on the sloping arable land covered by typical yellow-brown soils inXiangxi River watershed by artificial rainfall. The results showed that the discharge of surface flow, total runoff and sediment increased with the increase of rain intensity, while the interflow was negatively correlated with rain intensity under the same total rainfall. TN, DN and DP were all flushed at the very beginning in surface flow underdifferent rainfall intensities; TP fluctuated and kept consistent in surface flow without obvious downtrend. While TN, DN and DP in interflow kept relatively stable in the whole runoff process, TP was high at the early stage, then rapidly decreased with time and kept steady finally. P was directly influenced by rainfall intensity, its concentration in the runoff increased with the increase of the rainfall intensity, the average concentration of N and P both exceeded the threshold of eutrophication of freshwater. The higher the amount of P loss was, the higher the rain intensity. The change of N loss was the opposite. The contribution rate of TN loss carried by surface flow increased from 36.5% to 57.6% with the increase of rainfall intensity, but surface flow was the primary form of P loss which contributed above 90.0%. Thus, it is crucial to control interflow in order to reduce N loss. In addition, measures should be taken to effectively manage soil erosion to mitigate P loss. The proportion of dissolved nitrogen in surface flow elevated with the decrease of rainfall intensity, but in interflow, dissolved form was predominant. P was exported mainly in the form of particulate under different rainfall intensities and runoff conditions.

  4. Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

  5. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

  6. Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2018-04-01

    We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

  7. Crossing the threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, John; Tambasco, Lucas

    2017-11-01

    First, we summarize the circumstances in which chaotic pilot-wave dynamics gives rise to quantum-like statistical behavior. For ``closed'' systems, in which the droplet is confined to a finite domain either by boundaries or applied forces, quantum-like features arise when the persistence time of the waves exceeds the time required for the droplet to cross its domain. Second, motivated by the similarities between this hydrodynamic system and stochastic electrodynamics, we examine the behavior of a bouncing droplet above the Faraday threshold, where a stochastic element is introduced into the drop dynamics by virtue of its interaction with a background Faraday wave field. With a view to extending the dynamical range of pilot-wave systems to capture more quantum-like features, we consider a generalized theoretical framework for stochastic pilot-wave dynamics in which the relative magnitudes of the drop-generated pilot-wave field and a stochastic background field may be varied continuously. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the NSF through their CMMI and DMS divisions.

  8. Analysis of rainfall characteristics and its related disasters of slag disposal pit of a certain Gold-Copper Deposit in Fujian province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Huali; Hu, Mingjian; Ou, Guoqiang

    2017-04-01

    According to the geological investigation in Fujian province, the total number of geological disasters was 9513, in which the number of landslide, collapse, unstable slope and surface collapse was 5816, 1888, 1591, 103 and 115 respectively. The main geological disaster was the landslide with 61.1% of total geological disasters. Among all these geological disasters, only 6.0% was relative stable, 17.0% was basic stable, nearly 76.0% was unstable. The slope disaster was the main geological disaster, if the unstable slope was the potential landslide or collapse; the slope collapse was 98.0% of all geological disasters. The rainfall, in particular the heavy rain, was direct dynamic factor for geological disasters, but the occurrence probability of geological disasters was different because of the sensitivity of the geological environment though of the same intensity rainfall. To obtain the characteristics of soil erosion under the rainfall condition, the rainfall characteristics and its related disasters of slag disposal pit of a certain Gold-Copper Deposit in Fujian province was analyzed by the meteorological and rainfall data. According to the distribution of monitoring stations of hydrological and rainfall in Longyan city of Fujian province and the location of gold-copper deposit, the Shanghang monitoring station of hydrological and rainfall was chosen, which is the nearest one to the gold-copper deposit. Then main parameters of the prediction model, the antecedent precipitation, the rainfall on the day and the rainfall threshold, were calculated by using the rainfall data from 2002 to 2010. And the relationship between geological disasters and the rainfall characteristics were analyzed. The results indicated that there was high risk for the debris flow with landslide collapse when either the daily rainfall was more than 100.0 mm, or the total rainfall was more than 136.0mm in the gold-copper deposit and the Shanghang region. At the same time, although there was few

  9. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  10. Albania - Thresholds I and II

    Data.gov (United States)

    Millennium Challenge Corporation — From 2006 to 2011, the government of Albania (GOA) received two Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Threshold Programs totaling $29.6 million. Albania received...

  11. Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

  12. Rainfall height stochastic modelling as a support tool for landslides early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.; Versace, P.

    2009-04-01

    intervals. More useful for this issue are the so-called DRIP (Disaggregated Rectangular Intensity Pulse) and NSRP (Neymann-Scott Rectangular Pulse) model [Heneker et al., 2001; Cowpertwait et al., 2002], usually adopted to generate synthetic point rainfall series. In this paper, the DRIP model approach is adopted in conjunction with FLAIR model to calculate the probability of flowslides occurrence. The final aim of the study is in fact to provide a useful tool to implement an early warning system for hydrogeological risk management. Model calibration has been carried out with hourly rainfall hieght data provided by the rain gauges of Campania Region civil protection agency meteorological warning network. So far, the model has been applied only to data series recorded at a single rain gauge. Future extension will deal with spatial correlation between time series recorded at different gauges. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research was co-financed by the Italian Ministry of University, by means of the PRIN 2006 PRIN program, within the research project entitled ‘Definition of critical rainfall thresholds for destructive landslides for civil protection purposes'. REFERENCES Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M., 1976. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day, San Francisco. Cowpertwait, P.S.P., Kilsby, C.G. and O'Connell, P.E., 2002. A space-time Neyman-Scott model of rainfall: Empirical analysis of extremes, Water Resources Research, 38(8):1-14. Salas, J.D., 1992. Analysis and modeling of hydrological time series, in D.R. Maidment, ed., Handbook of Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York. Heneker, T.M., Lambert, M.F. and Kuczera G., 2001. A point rainfall model for risk-based design, Journal of Hydrology, 247(1-2):54-71. Versace, P., Sirangelo. B. and Capparelli, G., 2003. Forewarning model of landslides triggered by rainfall. Proc. 3rd International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, Davos.

  13. Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

    2014-01-01

    that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

  14. Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

    2014-01-01

    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering t...

  15. Threshold Concepts and Information Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Lori; Brunetti, Korey; Hofer, Amy R.

    2011-01-01

    What do we teach when we teach information literacy in higher education? This paper describes a pedagogical approach to information literacy that helps instructors focus content around transformative learning thresholds. The threshold concept framework holds promise for librarians because it grounds the instructor in the big ideas and underlying…

  16. Space/time analysis of fecal pollution and rainfall in an eastern North Carolina estuary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulliette, Angela D; Money, Eric S; Serre, Marc L; Noble, Rachel T

    2009-05-15

    The Newport River Estuary (NPRE) is a high-priority shellfish harvesting area in eastern North Carolina that is impaired due to fecal contamination, specifically exceeding recommended levels for fecal coliforms. A hydrologic-driven mean trend model was developed, as a function of antecedent rainfall, in the NPRE to predict levels of Escherichia coli (EC, measured as a proxyforfecal coliforms). This mean trend model was integrated in a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework to produce informative space/time (S/T) maps depicting fecal contamination across the NPRE during winter and summer months. These maps showed that during dry winter months, corretponding to the oyster harvesting season in North Carolina (October 1-March 30), predicted EC concentrations were below the shellfish harvesting standard (14 MPN/100 mL). However, after substantial rainfall of 3.81 cm (1.5 in.), the NPRE did not appear to mee this requirement. Warmer months resulted in the predicted EC concentrations exceeding the threshold for the NPRE. Predicted ENT concentrations were generally below the recreational water quality threshold (104 MPN/100 mL), except for warmer months after substantial rainfall. Once established, this combined approach produces near real-time visual information on which to base water quality management decisions.

  17. A method for predicting monthly rainfall patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1987-11-01

    A brief survey is made of previous methods that have been used to predict rainfall trends or drought spells in different parts of the earth. The basic methodologies or theoretical strategies used in these methods are compared with contents of a recent theory of Sun-Weather/Climate links (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987a; 1987b; 1987c) which point towards the possibility of practical climatic predictions. It is shown that not only is the theoretical basis of each of these methodologies or strategies fully incorporated into the above-named theory, but also this theory may be used to develop a technique by which future monthly rainfall patterns can be predicted in further and finer details. We describe the latter technique and then illustrate its workability by means of predictions made on monthly rainfall patterns in some East African meteorological stations. (author). 43 refs, 11 figs, 2 tabs

  18. Critical Phenomena of Rainfall in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Sh.; Vasquez, N.; Jacome, P.; Basile, L.

    2014-02-01

    Self-organized criticality (SOC) is characterized by a power law behavior over complex systems like earthquakes and avalanches. We study rainfall using data of one day, 3 hours and 10 min temporal resolution from INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia) station at Izobamba, DMQ (Metropolitan District of Quito), satellite data over Ecuador from Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission (TRMM,) and REMMAQ (Red Metropolitana de Monitoreo Atmosferico de Quito) meteorological stations over, respectively. Our results show a power law behavior of the number of rain events versus mm of rainfall measured for the high resolution case (10 min), and as the resolution decreases this behavior gets lost. This statistical property is the fingerprint of a self-organized critical process (Peter and Christensen, 2002) and may serve as a benchmark for models of precipitation based in phase transitions between water vapor and precipitation (Peter and Neeling, 2006).

  19. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...... applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value......Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...

  20. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  1. Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

    2012-04-01

    Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

  2. Extreme rainfalls in Eastern Himalaya and southern slope of Meghalaya Plateau and their geomorphologic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Roman; Starkel, Leszek

    2007-02-01

    This paper presents the detailed rainfall characteristics of 3 key areas located in the eastern monsoon India: the margin of Darjeeling Himalaya, the margin of Bhutanese Himalaya and the Cherrapunji region at the southern slope of Meghalaya Upland. All these areas are sensitive to changes but differ in annual rainfall totals (2000-4000 mm, 4000-6000 m and 6000-23,000 mm respectively) and in the frequency of extreme rainfalls. Therefore the response of geomorphic processes is different, also due to various human impact. In the Darjeeling Himalaya the thresholds may be passed 2-3 times in one century and the system may return to the former equilibrium. At the margin of western Bhutanese Himalaya in 1990s, the clustering of three events caused an acceleration in the transformation and formation of a new trend of evolution, especially in the piedmont zone. In the Cherrapunji of Meghalaya region in the natural conditions the effects of dozens of extreme rainfalls every year were checked by the dense vegetation cover. After deforestation and extensive land use the fertile soil was removed and either the exposed bedrock or armoured debris top layer protect the surface against degradation and facilitate only rapid overland flow. A new "sterile" system has been formed.

  3. Development of extreme rainfall PRA methodology for sodium-cooled fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology for extreme rainfall with focusing on decay heat removal system of a sodium-cooled fast reactor. For the extreme rainfall, annual excess probability depending on the hazard intensity was statistically estimated based on meteorological data. To identify core damage sequence, event trees were developed by assuming scenarios that structures, systems and components (SSCs) important to safety are flooded with rainwater coming into the buildings through gaps in the doors and the SSCs fail when the level of rainwater on the ground or on the roof of the building becomes higher than thresholds of doors on first floor or on the roof during the rainfall. To estimate the failure probability of the SSCs, the level of water rise was estimated by comparing the difference between precipitation and drainage capacity. By combining annual excess probability and the failure probability of SSCs, the event trees led to quantification of core damage frequency, and therefore the PRA methodology for rainfall was developed. (author)

  4. Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora

    1997-05-01

    Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

  5. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-01-01

    Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  6. Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

    2014-01-01

    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

  7. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  8. Music effect on pain threshold evaluated with current perception threshold

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    AIM: Music relieves anxiety and psychotic tension. This effect of music is applied to surgical operation in the hospital and dental office. It is still unclear whether this music effect is only limited to the psychological aspect but not to the physical aspect or whether its music effect is influenced by the mood or emotion of audience. To elucidate these issues, we evaluated the music effect on pain threshold by current perception threshold (CPT) and profile of mood states (POMC) test. METHODS: Healthy 30 subjects (12 men, 18 women, 25-49 years old, mean age 34.9) were tested. (1)After POMC test, all subjects were evaluated pain threshold with CPT by Neurometer (Radionics, USA) under 6 conditions, silence, listening to the slow tempo classic music, nursery music, hard rock music, classic paino music and relaxation music with 30 seconds interval. (2)After Stroop color word test as the stresser, pain threshold was evaluated with CPT under 2 conditions, silence and listening to the slow tempo classic music. RESULTS: Under litening to the music, CPT sores increased, especially 2 000 Hz level related with compression, warm and pain sensation. Type of music, preference of music and stress also affected CPT score. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrated that the concentration on the music raise the pain threshold and that stress and mood influence the music effect on pain threshold.

  9. Threshold responses to soil moisture deficit by trees and soil in tropical rain forests: insights from field experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Meir; Tana Wood; David R. Galbraith; Paulo M. Brando; Antonio C.I. Da Costa; Lucy Rowland; Leandro V. Ferreira

    2015-01-01

    Many tropical rain forest regions are at risk of increased future drought. The net effects of drought on forest ecosystem functioning will be substantial if important ecological thresholds are passed. However, understanding and predicting these effects is challenging using observational studies alone. Field-based rainfall exclusion (canopy throughfall exclusion; TFE)...

  10. Sensitivity of effective rainfall amount to land use description using GIS tool. Case of a small mediterranean catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payraudeau, S.; Tournoud, M. G.; Cernesson, F.

    Distributed modelling in hydrology assess catchment subdivision to take into account physic characteristics. In this paper, we test the effect of land use aggregation scheme on catchment hydrological response. Evolution of intra-subcatchment land use is studied using statistic and entropy methods. The SCS-CN method is used to calculate effective rainfall which is here assimilated to hydrological response. Our purpose is to determine the existence of a critical threshold-area appropriate for the application of hydrological modelling. Land use aggregation effects on effective rainfall is assessed on small mediterranean catchment. The results show that land use aggregation and land use classification type have significant effects on hydrological modelling and in particular on effective rainfall modelling.

  11. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 12; Comparison of Satellite Global Rainfall Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Alfred T. C.; Chiu, Long S.

    1997-01-01

    Seventeen months of rainfall data (August 1987-December 1988) from nine satellite rainfall algorithms (Adler, Chang, Kummerow, Prabhakara, Huffman, Spencer, Susskind, and Wu) were analyzed to examine the uncertainty of satellite-derived rainfall estimates. The variability among algorithms, measured as the standard deviation computed from the ensemble of algorithms, shows regions of high algorithm variability tend to coincide with regions of high rain rates. Histograms of pattern correlation (PC) between algorithms suggest a bimodal distribution, with separation at a PC-value of about 0.85. Applying this threshold as a criteria for similarity, our analyses show that algorithms using the same sensor or satellite input tend to be similar, suggesting the dominance of sampling errors in these satellite estimates.

  12. Sensitivity of goodness-of-fit statistics to rainfall data rounding off

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deidda, Roberto; Puliga, Michelangelo

    An analysis based on the L-moments theory suggests of adopting the generalized Pareto distribution to interpret daily rainfall depths recorded by the rain-gauge network of the Hydrological Survey of the Sardinia Region. Nevertheless, a big problem, not yet completely resolved, arises in the estimation of a left-censoring threshold able to assure a good fitting of rainfall data with the generalized Pareto distribution. In order to detect an optimal threshold, keeping the largest possible number of data, we chose to apply a “failure-to-reject” method based on goodness-of-fit tests, as it was proposed by Choulakian and Stephens [Choulakian, V., Stephens, M.A., 2001. Goodness-of-fit tests for the generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 43, 478-484]. Unfortunately, the application of the test, using percentage points provided by Choulakian and Stephens (2001), did not succeed in detecting a useful threshold value in most analyzed time series. A deeper analysis revealed that these failures are mainly due to the presence of large quantities of rounding off values among sample data, affecting the distribution of goodness-of-fit statistics and leading to significant departures from percentage points expected for continuous random variables. A procedure based on Monte Carlo simulations is thus proposed to overcome these problems.

  13. Rainfall erosivity in Brazil: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, we review the erosivity studies conducted in Brazil to verify the quality and representativeness of the results generated and to provide a greater understanding of the rainfall erosivity (R-factor) in Brazil. We searched the ISI Web of Science, Scopus, SciELO, and Google Scholar datab...

  14. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology

  15. Water Conservation Education with a Rainfall Simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Hans; Kessen, Shelly

    1997-01-01

    Describes a program in which a rainfall simulator was used to promote water conservation by showing water infiltration, water runoff, and soil erosion. The demonstrations provided a good background for the discussion of issues such as water conservation, crop rotation, and conservation tillage practices. The program raised awareness of…

  16. Properties of Extreme Point Rainfall I

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    1995-01-01

    Extreme rainfall has been recorded by the larger municipalities in Denmark since 1933. National intensity-duration-frequency curves were produced on this basis for engineering application in the whole of Denmark. In 1979, on the initiative of The Danish Water Pollution Control Committee under...

  17. Rainfall measurement using cell phone links

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schip, van het T.I.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Meirink, J.F.; Delden, van A.J.

    2017-01-01

    Commercial cellular telecommunication networks can be used for rainfall estimation by measuring the attenuation of electromagnetic signals transmitted between antennas from microwave links. However, as the received link signal may also decrease during dry periods, a method to separate wet and dry

  18. Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall for Cropping Schedules ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to account significantly for rainfall variability in many parts of the world, particularly tropical regions. This variability is very important in rainfed crop production and needs to be well understood. Thirty years of ...

  19. Characterizing rainfall in the Tenerife island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Sierra, Javier; del Jesus, Manuel; Losada Rodriguez, Inigo

    2017-04-01

    In many locations, rainfall data are collected through networks of meteorological stations. The data collection process is nowadays automated in many places, leading to the development of big databases of rainfall data covering extensive areas of territory. However, managers, decision makers and engineering consultants tend not to extract most of the information contained in these databases due to the lack of specific software tools for their exploitation. Here we present the modeling and development effort put in place in the Tenerife island in order to develop MENSEI-L, a software tool capable of automatically analyzing a complete rainfall database to simplify the extraction of information from observations. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information derived from atmospheric conditions to separate the complete time series into homogeneous groups where statistical distributions are fitted. Normal and extreme regimes are obtained in this manner. MENSEI-L is also able to complete missing data in the time series and to generate synthetic stations by using Kriging techniques. These techniques also serve to generate the spatial regimes of precipitation, both normal and extreme ones. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information to also provide a stochastic three-day probability forecast for rainfall.

  20. ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL TREND IN ETHIOPIA INTRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    annual, Kiremt (June-September) and Belg (February-May) rainfall, using I 0 selected ... the significance of trends in hydrometer-logical time series (Yue et al., 2002(2)). The .... then the Auto Regressive One (AR (I)) is removed from the r,' by.

  1. On the determination of trends in rainfall

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-02-19

    Feb 19, 2008 ... it was decided to start from the inherent distribution of rainfall and develop a method for determining temporal .... first log-transformed to stabilise the variance of the time series ... the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter had a very high probability of ... seasonality, the SKT test and a t-test adjusted for seasonality.

  2. Parton distributions with threshold resummation

    CERN Document Server

    Bonvini, Marco; Rojo, Juan; Rottoli, Luca; Ubiali, Maria; Ball, Richard D.; Bertone, Valerio; Carrazza, Stefano; Hartland, Nathan P.

    2015-01-01

    We construct a set of parton distribution functions (PDFs) in which fixed-order NLO and NNLO calculations are supplemented with soft-gluon (threshold) resummation up to NLL and NNLL accuracy respectively, suitable for use in conjunction with any QCD calculation in which threshold resummation is included at the level of partonic cross sections. These resummed PDF sets, based on the NNPDF3.0 analysis, are extracted from deep-inelastic scattering, Drell-Yan, and top quark pair production data, for which resummed calculations can be consistently used. We find that, close to threshold, the inclusion of resummed PDFs can partially compensate the enhancement in resummed matrix elements, leading to resummed hadronic cross-sections closer to the fixed-order calculation. On the other hand, far from threshold, resummed PDFs reduce to their fixed-order counterparts. Our results demonstrate the need for a consistent use of resummed PDFs in resummed calculations.

  3. The role of non-rainfall water on physiological activation in desert biological soil crusts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jiaoli; Peng, Chengrong; Li, Hua; Li, Shuangshuang; Huang, Shun; Hu, Yao; Zhang, Jinli; Li, Dunhai

    2018-01-01

    Non-rainfall water (NRW, e.g. fog and dew), in addition to rainfall and snowfall, are considered important water inputs to drylands. At the same time, biological soil crusts (BSCs) are important components of drylands. However, little information is available regarding the effect of NRW inputs on BSC activation. In this study, the effects of NRW on physiological activation in three BSC successional stages, including the cyanobacteria crust stage (Crust-C), moss colonization stage (Crust-CM), and moss crust stage (Crust-M), were studied in situ. Results suggest NRW inputs hydrated and activated physiological activity (Fv/Fm, carbon exchange, and nitrogen fixation) in BSCs but led to a negative carbon balance and low rates of nitrogen fixation in BSCs. One effective NRW event could hydrate BSCs for 7 h. Following simulated rainfall, the physiological activities recovered within 3 h, and net carbon gain occurred until 3 h after hydration, whereas NRW-induced physiological recovery processes were slower and exhibited lower activities, leading to a negative carbon balance. There were significant positive correlations between NRW amounts and the recovered values of Fv/Fm in all the three BSC stages (p < .001). The thresholds for Fv/Fm activation decreased with BSC succession, and the annual effective NRW events increased with BSC succession, with values of 29.8, 89.2, and 110.7 in Crust-C, Crust-CM and Crust-M, respectively. The results suggest that moss crust and moss-cyanobacteria crust use NRW to prolong metabolic activity and reduce drought stress more efficiently than cyanobacteria crusts. Therefore, these results suggest that BSCs utilize NRW to sustain life while growth and biomass accumulation require precipitation (rainfall) events over a certain threshold.

  4. Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

  5. Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

    2017-08-01

    Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

  6. Deforestation alters rainfall: a myth or reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanif, M. F.; Mustafa, M. R.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.

    2016-06-01

    To cope with the issue of food safety and human shelter, natural landscape has gone through a number of alterations. In the coming future, the expansion of urban land and agricultural farms will likely disrupt the natural environment. Researchers have claimed that land use change may become the most serious issue of the current century. Thus, it is necessary to understand the consequences of land use change on the climatic variables, e.g., rainfall. This study investigated the impact of deforestation on local rainfall. An integrated methodology was adopted to achieve the objectives. Above ground biomass was considered as the indicator of forest areas. Time series data of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor were obtained for the year of 2000, 2005, and 2010. Rainfall data were collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysia. The MODIS time series data were classified and four major classes were developed based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ranges. The results of the classification showed that water, and urban and agricultural lands have increased in their area by 2, 3, and 6%, respectively. On the other hand, the area of forest has decreased 10% collectively from 2000 to 2010. The results of NDVI and rainfall data were analysed by using a linear regression analysis. The results showed a significant relationship at a 90% confidence interval between rainfall and deforestation (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). The results of this study may provide information about the consequences of land use on the climate on the local scale.

  7. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  8. Conceptions of nuclear threshold status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quester, G.H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews some alternative definitions of nuclear threshold status. Each of them is important, and major analytical confusions would result if one sense of the term is mistaken for another. The motives for nations entering into such threshold status are a blend of civilian and military gains, and of national interests versus parochial or bureaucratic interests. A portion of the rationale for threshold status emerges inevitably from the pursuit of economic goals, and another portion is made more attraction by the derives of the domestic political process. Yet the impact on international security cannot be dismissed, especially where conflicts among the states remain real. Among the military or national security motives are basic deterrence, psychological warfare, war-fighting and, more generally, national prestige. In the end, as the threshold phenomenon is assayed for lessons concerning the role of nuclear weapons more generally in international relations and security, one might conclude that threshold status and outright proliferation coverage to a degree in the motives for all of the states involved and in the advantages attained. As this paper has illustrated, nuclear threshold status is more subtle and more ambiguous than outright proliferation, and it takes considerable time to sort out the complexities. Yet the world has now had a substantial amount of time to deal with this ambiguous status, and this may tempt more states to exploit it

  9. Extreme value analysis of rainfall data for Kalpakkam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pramod Kumar; John Arul, A.; Ramkrishnan, M.; Bhuvana, V.

    2016-01-01

    Flood hazard evaluation is an important safety study for a Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study flood hazard at PFBR site due to rainfall is evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment is daily annual maximum rainfall (24 hrs data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law, and exponential distribution and return period has been estimated. The predicted 100 yrs return period rainfall for Kalpakkam ranges from 240 mm to 365 mm in a day and 1000 yrs return period rainfall ranges from 320 mm to 790 min in a day. To study the stationarity of rainfall data a moving window estimate of the parameters (exponential distribution) have also been performed. (author)

  10. Investigation into increasing short-duration rainfall intensities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-04-03

    Apr 3, 2015 ... This study explores this expectation by using historical short-duration ... weather station 5-min rainfall data were combined to extend the effective ... evidence was found of trends or indications of changes in rainfall intensities.

  11. Plant responses to precipitation in desert ecosystems: integrating functional types, pulses, thresholds, and delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Kiona; Reynolds, James F

    2004-10-01

    The 'two-layer' and 'pulse-reserve' hypotheses were developed 30 years ago and continue to serve as the standard for many experiments and modeling studies that examine relationships between primary productivity and rainfall variability in aridlands. The two-layer hypothesis considers two important plant functional types (FTs) and predicts that woody and herbaceous plants are able to co-exist in savannas because they utilize water from different soil layers (or depths). The pulse-reserve model addresses the response of individual plants to precipitation and predicts that there are 'biologically important' rain events that stimulate plant growth and reproduction. These pulses of precipitation may play a key role in long-term plant function and survival (as compared to seasonal or annual rainfall totals as per the two-layer model). In this paper, we re-evaluate these paradigms in terms of their generality, strengths, and limitations. We suggest that while seasonality and resource partitioning (key to the two-layer model) and biologically important precipitation events (key to the pulse-reserve model) are critical to understanding plant responses to precipitation in aridlands, both paradigms have significant limitations. Neither account for plasticity in rooting habits of woody plants, potential delayed responses of plants to rainfall, explicit precipitation thresholds, or vagaries in plant phenology. To address these limitations, we integrate the ideas of precipitation thresholds and plant delays, resource partitioning, and plant FT strategies into a simple 'threshold-delay' model. The model contains six basic parameters that capture the nonlinear nature of plant responses to pulse precipitation. We review the literature within the context of our threshold-delay model to: (i) develop testable hypotheses about how different plant FTs respond to pulses; (ii) identify weaknesses in the current state-of-knowledge; and (iii) suggest future research directions that will

  12. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

  13. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Goudenhoofdt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

  14. Critical review and hydrologic application of threshold detection methods for the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamalakis, Antonios; Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of extreme rainfall from data constitutes one of the most important issues in statistical hydrology, as it is associated with the design of hydraulic structures and flood water management. To that extent, based on asymptotic arguments from Extreme Excess (EE) theory, several studies have focused on developing new, or improving existing methods to fit a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution model to rainfall excesses above a properly selected threshold u. The latter is generally determined using various approaches, such as non-parametric methods that are intended to locate the changing point between extreme and non-extreme regions of the data, graphical methods where one studies the dependence of GP distribution parameters (or related metrics) on the threshold level u, and Goodness of Fit (GoF) metrics that, for a certain level of significance, locate the lowest threshold u that a GP distribution model is applicable. In this work, we review representative methods for GP threshold detection, discuss fundamental differences in their theoretical bases, and apply them to 1714 daily rainfall records from the NOAA-NCDC open-access database, with more than 110 years of data. We find that non-parametric methods that are intended to locate the changing point between extreme and non-extreme regions of the data are generally not reliable, while methods that are based on asymptotic properties of the upper distribution tail lead to unrealistically high threshold and shape parameter estimates. The latter is justified by theoretical arguments, and it is especially the case in rainfall applications, where the shape parameter of the GP distribution is low; i.e. on the order of 0.1 ÷ 0.2. Better performance is demonstrated by graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on pre-asymptotic properties of the GP distribution. For daily rainfall, we find that GP threshold estimates range between 2÷12 mm/d with a mean value of 6.5 mm/d, while the existence of quantization in the

  15. Rainfall spatiotemporal variability relation to wetlands hydroperiods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Hidalgo, Carmen; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Fernandez-Naranjo, Nuria

    2017-04-01

    Doñana natural space (Southwestern Spain) is one of the largest protected wetlands in Europe. The wide marshes present in this natural space have such ecological value that this wetland has been declared a Ramsar reserve in 1982. Apart from the extensive marsh, there are also small lagoons and seasonally flooded areas which are likewise essential to maintain a wide variety of valuable habitats. Hydroperiod, the length of time each point remains flooded along an annual cycle, is a critical ecological parameter that shapes aquatic plants and animals distribution and determines available habitat for many of the living organisms in the marshes. Recently, there have been published two different works estimating the hydroperiod of Doñana lagoons with Landsat Time Series images (Cifuentes et al., 2015; Díaz-Delgado et al., 2016). In both works the flooding cycle hydroperiod in Doñana marshes reveals a flooding regime mainly driven by rainfall, evapotranspiration, topography and local hydrological management actions. The correlation found between rainfall and hydroperiod is studied differently in both works. While in one the rainfall is taken from one raingauge (Cifuentes et al., 2015), the one performed by Díaz-Delgado (2016) uses annual rainfall maps interpolated with the inverse of the distance method. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability in this area can be highly significant; however the amount of this importance has not been quantified at the moment. In the present work the geostatistical tool known as spatiotemporal variogram is used to study the rainfall spatiotemporal variability. The spacetime package implemented in R (Pebesma, 2012) facilities its computation from a high rainfall data base of more than 100 raingauges from 1950 to 2016. With the aid of these variograms the rainfall spatiotemporal variability is quantified. The principal aim of the present work is the study of the relation between the rainfall spatiotemporal variability and the

  16. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

  17. Rainfall interception of three trees in Oakland, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qingfu Xiao; E. Gregory McPherson

    2011-01-01

    A rainfall interception study was conducted in Oakland, California to determine the partitioning of rainfall and the chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, and stemflow. Rainfall interception measurements were conducted on a gingko (Ginkgo biloba) (13.5 m tall deciduous tree), sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) (8...

  18. Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a given amount of rain occurs is important because heavier rainfall leads to greater runoff, greater soil erosion and less infiltration into the water table. A knowledge of rainfall intensity therefore becomes. Keywords. Rainfall intensity; Kerala; cumulative distribution. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 116, No. 5, October 2007, pp. 451–463.

  19. Effect of rainfall on cropping pattern in mid Himalayan region ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analysis of effect of rainfall during the last 20 years is needed to evaluate cropping pattern in the rain-fed region. In this study, trends in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall of district of Himachal Pradesh in India over the past 20 years were examined. The annual rainfall varies from 863.3 to 1470.0 mm. During the ...

  20. Rainfall reliability, drought and flood vulnerability in Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...

  1. Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-02-09

    Feb 9, 2009 ... the lowest number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days. The highest 24-h ... With regard to seasonal rainfall, the 1995/96 summer rainfall season had ..... The Gauteng Province is approximately 16 500 km2 in size. When the ...

  2. RAINFALL AGGRESSIVENESS EVALUATION IN REGHIN HILLS USING FOURNIER INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. SZILAGYI

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Aggressiveness erosive force of rainfall is the express of kinetic energy and potential energy of rain water runoff on slopes. In the absence of a database for the analysis of parameters that define the torrencial rainfall, the rainfall erosivity factor was calculated by Fournier Index, Modified Fournier Index based on the monthly and annual precipitation.

  3. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  4. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballabio, C; Meusburger, K; Klik, A

    2017-01-01

    to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive...... and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part...... selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency...

  5. Bivariate copula in fitting rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Kong Ching; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusof, Fadhilah; Mean, Foo Hui

    2014-07-01

    The usage of copula to determine the joint distribution between two variables is widely used in various areas. The joint distribution of rainfall characteristic obtained using the copula model is more ideal than the standard bivariate modelling where copula is belief to have overcome some limitation. Six copula models will be applied to obtain the most suitable bivariate distribution between two rain gauge stations. The copula models are Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Clayton, Frank, Galambos, Gumbel-Hoogaurd (GH) and Plackett. The rainfall data used in the study is selected from rain gauge stations which are located in the southern part of Peninsular Malaysia, during the period from 1980 to 2011. The goodness-of-fit test in this study is based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC).

  6. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  7. Evaluating the MSG satellite Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate for extreme rainfall monitoring over northern Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saoussen Dhib

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge and evaluation of extreme precipitation is important for water resources and flood risk management, soil and land degradation, and other environmental issues. Due to the high potential threat to local infrastructure, such as buildings, roads and power supplies, heavy precipitation can have an important social and economic impact on society. At present, satellite derived precipitation estimates are becoming more readily available. This paper aims to investigate the potential use of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate (MPE for extreme rainfall assessment in Tunisia. The MSGMPE data combine microwave rain rate estimations with SEVIRI thermal infrared channel data, using an EUMETSAT production chain in near real time mode. The MPE data can therefore be used in a now-casting mode, and are potentially useful for extreme weather early warning and monitoring. Daily precipitation observed across an in situ gauge network in the north of Tunisia were used during the period 2007–2009 for validation of the MPE extreme event data. As a first test of the MSGMPE product's performance, very light to moderate rainfall classes, occurring between January and October 2007, were evaluated. Extreme rainfall events were then selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (>50 mm/day occurring at least at one ground station. Spatial interpolation methods were applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October and the wet winter season (from November to April. Interpolated gauge rainfall maps were then compared to MSGMPE data available from the EUMETSAT UMARF archive or from the GEONETCast direct dissemination system. The summation of the MPE data at 5 and/or 15 min time intervals over a 24 h period, provided a basis for comparison. The MSGMPE product was not very effective in the detection of very light and light rain events. Better results were obtained for the slightly

  8. Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2015-01-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

  9. Analytical solutions to sampling effects in drop size distribution measurements during stationary rainfall: Estimation of bulk rainfall variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Porrà, J.M.; Sempere Torres, D.; Creutin, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    A stochastic model of the microstructure of rainfall is used to derive explicit expressions for the magnitude of the sampling fluctuations in rainfall properties estimated from raindrop size measurements in stationary rainfall. The model is a marked point process, in which the points represent the

  10. Doubler system quench detection threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuepke, K.; Kuchnir, M.; Martin, P.

    1983-01-01

    The experimental study leading to the determination of the sensitivity needed for protecting the Fermilab Doubler from damage during quenches is presented. The quench voltage thresholds involved were obtained from measurements made on Doubler cable of resistance x temperature and voltage x time during quenches under several currents and from data collected during operation of the Doubler Quench Protection System as implemented in the B-12 string of 20 magnets. At 4kA, a quench voltage threshold in excess of 5.OV will limit the peak Doubler cable temperature to 452K for quenches originating in the magnet coils whereas a threshold of 0.5V is required for quenches originating outside of coils

  11. Thermotactile perception thresholds measurement conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Setsuo; Sakakibara, Hisataka

    2002-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of posture, push force and rate of temperature change on thermotactile thresholds and to clarify suitable measuring conditions for Japanese people. Thermotactile (warm and cold) thresholds on the right middle finger were measured with an HVLab thermal aesthesiometer. Subjects were eight healthy male Japanese students. The effects of posture in measurement were examined in the posture of a straight hand and forearm placed on a support, the same posture without a support, and the fingers and hand flexed at the wrist with the elbow placed on a desk. The finger push force applied to the applicator of the thermal aesthesiometer was controlled at a 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 N. The applicator temperature was changed to 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 degrees C/s. After each measurement, subjects were asked about comfort under the measuring conditions. Three series of experiments were conducted on different days to evaluate repeatability. Repeated measures ANOVA showed that warm thresholds were affected by the push force and the rate of temperature change and that cold thresholds were influenced by posture and push force. The comfort assessment indicated that the measurement posture of a straight hand and forearm laid on a support was the most comfortable for the subjects. Relatively high repeatability was obtained under measurement conditions of a 1 degrees C/s temperature change rate and a 0.5 N push force. Measurement posture, push force and rate of temperature change can affect the thermal threshold. Judging from the repeatability, a push force of 0.5 N and a temperature change of 1.0 degrees C/s in the posture with the straight hand and forearm laid on a support are recommended for warm and cold threshold measurements.

  12. The PRESSCA operational early warning system for landslide forecasting: the 11-12 November 2013 rainfall event in Central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciabatta, Luca; Brocca, Luca; Ponziani, Francesco; Berni, Nicola; Stelluti, Marco; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2014-05-01

    The Umbria Region, located in Central Italy, is one of the most landslide risk prone area in Italy, almost yearly affected by landslides events at different spatial scales. For early warning procedures aimed at the assessment of the hydrogeological risk, the rainfall thresholds represent the main tool for the Italian Civil Protection System. As shown in previous studies, soil moisture plays a key-role in landslides triggering. In fact, acting on the pore water pressure, soil moisture influences the rainfall amount needed for activating a landslide. In this work, an operational physically-based early warning system, named PRESSCA, that takes into account soil moisture for the definition of rainfall thresholds is presented. Specifically, the soil moisture conditions are evaluated in PRESSCA by using a distributed soil water balance model that is recently coupled with near real-time satellite soil moisture product obtained from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) and from in-situ monitoring data. The integration of three different sources of soil moisture information allows to estimate the most accurate possible soil moisture condition. Then, both observed and forecasted rainfall data are compared with the soil moisture-based thresholds in order to obtain risk indicators over a grid of ~ 5 km. These indicators are then used for the daily hydrogeological risk evaluation and management by the Civil Protection regional service, through the sharing/delivering of near real-time landslide risk scenarios (also through an open source web platform: www.cfumbria.it). On the 11th-12th November, 2013, Umbria Region was hit by an exceptional rainfall event with up to 430mm/72hours that resulted in significant economic damages, but fortunately no casualties among the population. In this study, the results during the rainfall event of PRESSCA system are described, by underlining the model capability to reproduce, two days in advance, landslide risk scenarios in good spatial and temporal

  13. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-01-01

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  14. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  15. A threshold for dissipative fission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoennessen, M.; Bertsch, G.F.

    1993-01-01

    The empirical domain of validity of statistical theory is examined as applied to fission data on pre-fission data on pre-fission neutron, charged particle, and γ-ray multiplicities. Systematics are found of the threshold excitation energy for the appearance of nonstatistical fission. From the data on systems with not too high fissility, the relevant phenomenological parameter is the ratio of the threshold temperature T thresh to the (temperature-dependent) fission barrier height E Bar (T). The statistical model reproduces the data for T thresh /E Bar (T) thresh /E Bar (T) independent of mass and fissility of the systems

  16. Thresholds in chemical respiratory sensitisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, Stella A; Arts, Josje H E; Ehnes, Colin; Hindle, Stuart; Hollnagel, Heli M; Poole, Alan; Suto, Hidenori; Kimber, Ian

    2015-07-03

    There is a continuing interest in determining whether it is possible to identify thresholds for chemical allergy. Here allergic sensitisation of the respiratory tract by chemicals is considered in this context. This is an important occupational health problem, being associated with rhinitis and asthma, and in addition provides toxicologists and risk assessors with a number of challenges. In common with all forms of allergic disease chemical respiratory allergy develops in two phases. In the first (induction) phase exposure to a chemical allergen (by an appropriate route of exposure) causes immunological priming and sensitisation of the respiratory tract. The second (elicitation) phase is triggered if a sensitised subject is exposed subsequently to the same chemical allergen via inhalation. A secondary immune response will be provoked in the respiratory tract resulting in inflammation and the signs and symptoms of a respiratory hypersensitivity reaction. In this article attention has focused on the identification of threshold values during the acquisition of sensitisation. Current mechanistic understanding of allergy is such that it can be assumed that the development of sensitisation (and also the elicitation of an allergic reaction) is a threshold phenomenon; there will be levels of exposure below which sensitisation will not be acquired. That is, all immune responses, including allergic sensitisation, have threshold requirement for the availability of antigen/allergen, below which a response will fail to develop. The issue addressed here is whether there are methods available or clinical/epidemiological data that permit the identification of such thresholds. This document reviews briefly relevant human studies of occupational asthma, and experimental models that have been developed (or are being developed) for the identification and characterisation of chemical respiratory allergens. The main conclusion drawn is that although there is evidence that the

  17. Optimization Problems on Threshold Graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Nechita

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available During the last three decades, different types of decompositions have been processed in the field of graph theory. Among these we mention: decompositions based on the additivity of some characteristics of the graph, decompositions where the adjacency law between the subsets of the partition is known, decompositions where the subgraph induced by every subset of the partition must have predeterminate properties, as well as combinations of such decompositions. In this paper we characterize threshold graphs using the weakly decomposition, determine: density and stability number, Wiener index and Wiener polynomial for threshold graphs.

  18. Threshold current for fireball generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkhuis, Geert C.

    1982-05-01

    Fireball generation from a high-intensity circuit breaker arc is interpreted here as a quantum-mechanical phenomenon caused by severe cooling of electrode material evaporating from contact surfaces. According to the proposed mechanism, quantum effects appear in the arc plasma when the radius of one magnetic flux quantum inside solid electrode material has shrunk to one London penetration length. A formula derived for the threshold discharge current preceding fireball generation is found compatible with data reported by Silberg. This formula predicts linear scaling of the threshold current with the circuit breaker's electrode radius and concentration of conduction electrons.

  19. Nuclear threshold effects and neutron strength function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hategan, Cornel; Comisel, Horia

    2003-01-01

    One proves that a Nuclear Threshold Effect is dependent, via Neutron Strength Function, on Spectroscopy of Ancestral Neutron Threshold State. The magnitude of the Nuclear Threshold Effect is proportional to the Neutron Strength Function. Evidence for relation of Nuclear Threshold Effects to Neutron Strength Functions is obtained from Isotopic Threshold Effect and Deuteron Stripping Threshold Anomaly. The empirical and computational analysis of the Isotopic Threshold Effect and of the Deuteron Stripping Threshold Anomaly demonstrate their close relationship to Neutron Strength Functions. It was established that the Nuclear Threshold Effects depend, in addition to genuine Nuclear Reaction Mechanisms, on Spectroscopy of (Ancestral) Neutron Threshold State. The magnitude of the effect is proportional to the Neutron Strength Function, in their dependence on mass number. This result constitutes also a proof that the origins of these threshold effects are Neutron Single Particle States at zero energy. (author)

  20. Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

  1. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

    2009-04-01

    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  2. Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svoboda Vojtěch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

  3. Temporal and spatial variations of rainfall erosivity in Southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ming-Hsi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan; Chu, Chun-Kuang

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion models are essential in developing effective soil and water resource conservation strategies. Soil erosion is generally evaluated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with an appropriate regional scale description. Among factors in the USLE model, the rainfall erosivity index (R) provides one of the clearest indications of the effects of climate change. Accurate estimation of rainfall erosivity requires continuous rainfall data; however, such data rarely demonstrate good spatial and temporal coverage. The data set consisted of 9240 storm events for the period 1993 to 2011, monitored by 27 rainfall stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in southern Taiwan, was used to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution map was plotted based on rainfall erosivity by the Kriging interpolation method. Results indicated that rainfall erosivity is mainly concentrated in rainy season from June to November typically contributed 90% of the yearly R factor. The temporal variations of monthly rainfall erosivity during June to November and annual rainfall erosivity have increasing trend from 1993 to 2011. There is an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in southern Taiwan. The results further indicated that there is a higher relationship between elevation and rainfall erosivity. The method developed in this study may also be useful for sediment disasters on Climate Change.

  4. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Zulkarnain

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  5. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

    2018-03-01

    The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  6. Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

    2017-01-01

    Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

  7. Percolation Threshold Parameters of Fluids

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Škvor, J.; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 79, č. 4 (2009), 041141-041147 ISSN 1539-3755 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : percolation threshold * universality * infinite cluster Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 2.400, year: 2009

  8. Threshold analyses and Lorentz violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehnert, Ralf

    2003-01-01

    In the context of threshold investigations of Lorentz violation, we discuss the fundamental principle of coordinate independence, the role of an effective dynamical framework, and the conditions of positivity and causality. Our analysis excludes a variety of previously considered Lorentz-breaking parameters and opens an avenue for viable dispersion-relation investigations of Lorentz violation

  9. Threshold enhancement of diphoton resonances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aoife Bharucha

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available We revisit a mechanism to enhance the decay width of (pseudo-scalar resonances to photon pairs when the process is mediated by loops of charged fermions produced near threshold. Motivated by the recent LHC data, indicating the presence of an excess in the diphoton spectrum at approximately 750 GeV, we illustrate this threshold enhancement mechanism in the case of a 750 GeV pseudoscalar boson A with a two-photon decay mediated by a charged and uncolored fermion having a mass at the 12MA threshold and a small decay width, <1 MeV. The implications of such a threshold enhancement are discussed in two explicit scenarios: i the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model in which the A state is produced via the top quark mediated gluon fusion process and decays into photons predominantly through loops of charginos with masses close to 12MA and ii a two Higgs doublet model in which A is again produced by gluon fusion but decays into photons through loops of vector-like charged heavy leptons. In both these scenarios, while the mass of the charged fermion has to be adjusted to be extremely close to half of the A resonance mass, the small total widths are naturally obtained if only suppressed three-body decay channels occur. Finally, the implications of some of these scenarios for dark matter are discussed.

  10. Landslide triggering thresholds for Switzerland based on a new gridded precipitation dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonarduzzi, Elena; Molnar, Peter; McArdell, Brian W.

    2017-04-01

    In Switzerland floods are responsible for most of the damage caused by rainfall-triggered natural hazards (89%), followed by landslides (6%, ca. 520 M Euros) as reported in Hilker et al. (2009) for the period 1972-2007. The prediction of landslide occurrence is particularly challenging because of their wide distribution in space and the complex interdependence of predisposing and triggering factors. The overall goal of our research is to develop an Early Warning System for landsliding in Switzerland based on hydrological modelling and rainfall forecasts. In order to achieve this, we first analyzed rainfall triggering thresholds for landslides from a new gridded daily precipitation dataset (RhiresD, MeteoSwiss) for Switzerland combined with landslide events recorded in the Swiss Damage Database (Hilker et al.,2009). The high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset allows us to collocate rainfall and landslides accurately in space, which is an advantage over many previous studies. Each of the 2272 landslides in the database in the period 1972-2012 was assigned to the corresponding 2x2 km precipitation cell. For each of these cells, precipitation events were defined as series of consecutive rainy days and the following event parameters were computed: duration (day), maximum and mean daily intensity (mm/day), total rainfall depth (mm) and maximum daily intensity divided by Mean Daily Precipitation (MDP). The events were classified as triggering or non-triggering depending on whether a landslide was recorded in the cell during the event. This classification of observations was compared to predictions based on a threshold for each of the parameters. The predictive power of each parameter and the best threshold value were quantified by ROC analysis and statistics such as AUC and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Event parameters based on rainfall intensity were found to have similarly high predictive power (TSS=0.54-0.59, AUC=0.85-0.86), while rainfall duration had a

  11. Hillslope Discharge Analysis - Threshold Behavior and Mixing Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dusek, J.; Vogel, T. N.

    2017-12-01

    Reliable quantitative prediction of temporal changes of both the soil water storage and the shallow subsurface runoff for natural forest hillslopes exhibiting high degree of subsurface heterogeneity remains a challenge. The intensity of stormflow determines to a large extent the residence time of water in a hillslope segment, thus also influencing biogeochemical processes and mass fluxes of nutrients. Stormflow, as one of the most important runoff mechanisms in headwater catchments, usually develops above the soil-bedrock interface during prominent rainfall-runoff events as saturated flow. In this study, one- and two-dimensional numerical models were used to analyze hydrological processes at an experimental forest site located in a small headwater catchment under humid temperate climate. The models are based on dual-continuum approach reflecting water flow and isotope transport through the soil matrix and preferential pathways. The threshold relationship between rainfall and stormflow as well as hysteresis in the hillslope stormflow-storage relationship were examined. The hillslope storage analysis was performed for selected individual rainfall-runoff events over the period of several consecutive growing seasons. Furthermore, temporal and spatial variations of pre-event and event water contributions to hillslope stormflow were evaluated using a two-component mass balance approach based on the synthetic oxygen-18 signatures. The results of this analysis showed a mutual interplay of components of hillslope water balance exposing a nonlinear character of the hillslope hydrological response. The results also suggested significant mixing processes in a hillslope segment, in particular mixing of pre-event and event water as well as water exchanged between the soil matrix and preferential pathways. Despite the dominant control of preferential stormflow on overall hillslope runoff response, a rapid and substantial contribution of pre-event water to hillslope runoff was

  12. Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. Mittermaier

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

    The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

  13. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

    2017-01-01

    Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

  14. Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold

  15. A hybrid hydrologically complemented warning model for shallow landslides induced by extreme rainfall in Korean Mountain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh Pradhan, Ananta Man; Kang, Hyo-Sub; Kim, Yun-Tae

    2016-04-01

    This study uses a physically based approach to evaluate the factor of safety of the hillslope for different hydrological conditions, in Mt Umyeon, south of Seoul. The hydrological conditions were determined using intensity and duration of whole Korea of known landslide inventory data. Quantile regression statistical method was used to ascertain different probability warning levels on the basis of rainfall thresholds. Physically based models are easily interpreted and have high predictive capabilities but rely on spatially explicit and accurate parameterization, which is commonly not possible. Statistical probabilistic methods can include other causative factors which influence the slope stability such as forest, soil and geology, but rely on good landslide inventories of the site. In this study a hybrid approach has described that combines the physically-based landslide susceptibility for different hydrological conditions. A presence-only based maximum entropy model was used to hybrid and analyze relation of landslide with conditioning factors. About 80% of the landslides were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby presenting its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of warning levels with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  16. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  17. Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

  18. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Wood

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  19. Hydrological Effects of Historic Rainfall on the Waccamaw River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, J.; Bao, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the overall water budget of the Waccamaw River during and after a historic rainfall event related to Hurricane Joaquin, producing a 1000-year rainfall event. While rainfall is the only input, it enters the basin through various means. Some rainwater enters the soil as soil moisture while rainfall also goes underground and enters the river channels from underground, which is defined as bucket in. Over time, the rainfall was removed from the river site through various natural processes. Those processes, including evaporation, soil storage as soil moisture, discharge runoff through the river channel, among others, were modeled and validated against the USGS gauge stations. The validated model results were then used to estimate the hydrological response of the Waccamaw River to the rainfall event and determine the overall water budget. The experiment was completed using a WRF-Hydro modeling system for the purposes of weather forecasting and meteorological analysis. Upon completion of the data analysis, the WRF-Hydro model result showed that large amounts of rainfall were variously dispersed through the aforementioned areas. It was determined that after entering the soil rainfall predominantly left the river basin by discharge, while evaporation accounted for the second most common destination of rainfall. Base flow also accounted for a destination of rainfall, though not as much as those previously mentioned.

  20. Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.

    2016-11-01

    Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

  1. Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

  2. Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

  3. Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2008-01-01

    Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

  4. The development of a sub-daily gridded rainfall product to improve hydrological predictions in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; O'Loughlin, Fiachra; Woods, Ross; Liguori, Sara

    2015-04-01

    In Great Britain and many other regions of the world, flooding resulting from short duration, high intensity rainfall events can lead to significant economic losses and fatalities. At present, such extreme events are often poorly evaluated using hydrological models due, in part, to their rarity and relatively short duration and a lack of appropriate data. Such storm characteristics are not well represented by daily rainfall records currently available using volumetric gauges and/or derived gridded products. This research aims to address this important data gap by developing a sub-daily gridded precipitation product for Great Britain. Our focus is to better understand these storm events and some of the challenges and uncertainties in quantifying such data across catchment scales. Our goal is to both improve such rainfall characterisation and derive an input to drive hydrological model simulations. Our methodology involves the collation, error checking, and spatial interpolation of approximately 2000 rain gauges located across Great Britain, provided by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Environment Agency (EA). Error checking was conducted over the entirety of the TBR data available, utilising a two stage approach. First, rain gauge data at each site were examined independently, with data exceeding reasonable thresholds marked as suspect. Second, potentially erroneous data were marked using a neighbourhood analysis approach whereby measurements at a given gauge were deemed suspect if they did not fall within defined bounds of measurements at neighbouring gauges. A total of eight error checks were conducted. To provide the user with the greatest flexibility possible, the error markers associated with each check have been recorded at every site. This approach aims to enable the user to choose which checks they deem most suitable for a particular application. The quality assured TBR dataset was then spatially interpolated to produce a national

  5. Impacts of different rainfall patterns on hyporheic zone under transient conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Suning; Chui, Ting Fong May

    2018-06-01

    The hyporheic zone (HZ) plays an important role in stream ecology. Previous studies have mainly focused on the factors influencing the HZ in the steady state. However, the exchange between surface water and groundwater in the HZ can become transient during a storm. This study investigates the impacts of different rainfall patterns (varying in intensity and duration) on the HZ under transient conditions. A two-dimensional numerical model of a 10-m long and 2-m deep domain is developed, in which the streambed consists of a series of dunes. Brinkman-Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations are respectively solved for groundwater and surface water, and velocity and pressure are coupled at the interface (i.e., the streambed surface). To compare the results under different transient conditions, this study proposes two indicators, i.e., the influential time (IT, the time required for the HZ to return to its initial state once it starts to change) and the influential depth (ID, the maximum increment in the HZ depth). To detect the extent to which the HZ undergoes significant spatial changes, moving split-window and inflection point tests are conducted. The results indicate that rainfall intensity (RI) and rainfall duration (RD) both display logarithmic relationships with the IT and ID with high coefficients of determination, but only between certain lower and upper thresholds of the RI and RD. Moreover, the distributions of the IT and ID as a function of the RI and RD are mapped using the surface spline and kriging interpolation methods to facilitate future prediction of the IT and ID. In addition, it is observed that the IT has a linear negative correlation with the groundwater response while the ID is not affected by different groundwater responses. All of the derived relationships can be used to predict the impacts of a future rainfall event on the HZ.

  6. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall over the South-West Coast of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Sarwar Hossain

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the spatial and temporal rainfall variability from the 1940s to 2007 in the south west coastal region of Bangladesh. Time series statistical tests were applied to examine the spatial and temporal trends in three time segments (1948–1970, 1971–1990 and 1991–2007 and four seasons (Pre-monsoon; Monsoon; Post-Monsoon and Winter, during the period 1948–2007. Eight weather stations were divided into two zones: exposed (exposed to sea and interior (distant to sea. Overall, rainfall increased during the period 1948–2007, while the trends intensified during post-1990s. Post-monsoon and winter rainfall was observed to follow significant positive trends at most weather stations during the time period 1948–2007. The rate of change was found in exposed zone and interior zone are +12.51 and +4.86 mm/year, respectively, over post monsoon and +0.9 and +1.86 mm/year, respectively, over winter. These trends intensified both in the exposed zone (+45.81 mm/year and the interior zone (+27.09 mm/year 1990 onwards. Winter rainfall does not exhibit significant change (p > 0.1 over the exterior or interior zone, though individual stations like Jessore, Satkhira and Bhola show significant negative trends after 1990s. Although the trends were observed to weaken in the monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons, they are not significant. Moreover, an 11-year cyclicity was found within these two seasons, whilst no cyclicity was observed in the post-monsoon and winter seasons. Sequential Mann Kendal test reveals that the changes in two zones rainfall trends are started around mid-80s, where step change found only for fours season in Khulna stations and also for winter seasons in all weather stations. These changes may have a detrimental effect on rain-fed agriculture in Bangladesh. The application of palaeo-environmental techniques, threshold determination and rainfall analysis across the whole country could be useful to support adaptation planning of

  7. Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

  8. The issue of threshold states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luck, L.

    1994-01-01

    The states which have not joined the Non-proliferation Treaty nor have undertaken any other internationally binding commitment not to develop or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons are considered a threshold states. Their nuclear status is rendered opaque as a conscious policy. Nuclear threshold status remains a key disarmament issue. For those few states, as India, Pakistan, Israel, who have put themselves in this position, the security returns have been transitory and largely illusory. The cost to them, and to the international community committed to the norm of non-proliferation, has been huge. The decisions which could lead to recovery from the situation in which they find themselves are essentially at their own hands. Whatever assistance the rest of international community is able to extend, it will need to be accompanied by a vital political signal

  9. Multiscalar production amplitudes beyond threshold

    CERN Document Server

    Argyres, E N; Kleiss, R H

    1993-01-01

    We present exact tree-order amplitudes for $H^* \\to n~H$, for final states containing one or two particles with non-zero three-momentum, for various interaction potentials. We show that there are potentials leading to tree amplitudes that satisfy unitarity, not only at threshold but also in the above kinematical configurations and probably beyond. As a by-product, we also calculate $2\\to n$ tree amplitudes at threshold and show that for the unbroken $\\phi^4$ theory they vanish for $n>4~$, for the Standard Model Higgs they vanish for $n\\ge 3~$ and for a model potential, respecting tree-order unitarity, for $n$ even and $n>4~$. Finally, we calculate the imaginary part of the one-loop $1\\to n$ amplitude in both symmetric and spontaneously broken $\\phi^4$ theory.

  10. Realistic Realizations Of Threshold Circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Hassan M.

    1987-08-01

    Threshold logic, in which each input is weighted, has many theoretical advantages over the standard gate realization, such as reducing the number of gates, interconnections, and power dissipation. However, because of the difficult synthesis procedure and complicated circuit implementation, their use in the design of digital systems is almost nonexistant. In this study, three methods of NMOS realizations are discussed, and their advantages and shortcomings are explored. Also, the possibility of using the methods to realize multi-valued logic is examined.

  11. Root finding with threshold circuits

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jeřábek, Emil

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 462, Nov 30 (2012), s. 59-69 ISSN 0304-3975 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100190902; GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0545 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : root finding * threshold circuit * power series Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.489, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304397512008006#

  12. Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen

    2015-04-01

    The CO-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) has to date seen the publication of at least ten journal papers that examine the African domain during 2012 and 2013. Five of these papers consider Africa generally (Nikulin et al. 2012, Kim et al. 2013, Hernandes-Dias et al. 2013, Laprise et al. 2013, Panitz et al. 2013) and five have regional foci: Tramblay et al. (2013) on Northern Africa, Mariotti et al. (2014) and Gbobaniyi el al. (2013) on West Africa, Endris et al. (2013) on East Africa and Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) on southern Africa. There also are a further three papers that the authors know about under review. These papers all use an observed rainfall and/or temperature data to evaluate/validate the regional model output and often proceed to assess projected changes in these variables due to climate change in the context of these observations. The most popular reference rainfall data used are the CRU, GPCP, GPCC, TRMM and UDEL datasets. However, as Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) point out there are many other rainfall datasets available for consideration, for example, CMORPH, FEWS, TAMSAT & RIANNAA, TAMORA and the WATCH & WATCH-DEI data. They, with others (Nikulin et al. 2012, Sylla et al. 2012) show that the observed datasets can have a very wide spread at a particular space-time coordinate. As more ground, space and reanalysis-based rainfall products become available, all which use different methods to produce precipitation data, the selection of reference data is becoming an important factor in model evaluation. A number of factors can contribute to a uncertainty in terms of the reliability and validity of the datasets such as radiance conversion algorithims, the quantity and quality of available station data, interpolation techniques and blending methods used to combine satellite and guage based products. However, to date no comprehensive study has been performed to evaluate the uncertainty in these observational datasets. We assess 18 gridded

  13. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Design proposal for door thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smolka Radim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Panels for openings in structures have always been an essential and integral part of buildings. Their importance in terms of a building´s functionality was not recognised. However, the general view on this issue has changed from focusing on big planar segments and critical details to sub-elements of these structures. This does not only focus on the forms of connecting joints but also on the supporting systems that keep the panels in the right position and ensure they function properly. One of the most strained segments is the threshold structure, especially the entrance door threshold structure. It is the part where substantial defects in construction occur in terms of waterproofing, as well as in the static, thermal and technical functions thereof. In conventional buildings, this problem is solved by pulling the floor structure under the entrance door structure and subsequently covering it with waterproofing material. This system cannot work effectively over the long term so local defects occur. A proposal is put forward to solve this problem by installing a sub-threshold door coupler made of composite materials. The coupler is designed so that its variability complies with the required parameters for most door structures on the European market.

  15. Threshold behaviour in hydrological systems as (human geo-ecosystems: manifestations, controls, implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sivapalan

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review threshold behaviour in environmental systems, which are often associated with the onset of floods, contamination and erosion events, and other degenerative processes. Key objectives of this review are to a suggest indicators for detecting threshold behavior, b discuss their implications for predictability, c distinguish different forms of threshold behavior and their underlying controls, and d hypothesise on possible reasons for why threshold behaviour might occur. Threshold behaviour involves a fast qualitative change of either a single process or the response of a system. For elementary phenomena this switch occurs when boundary conditions (e.g., energy inputs or system states as expressed by dimensionless quantities (e.g. the Reynolds number exceed threshold values. Mixing, water movement or depletion of thermodynamic gradients becomes much more efficient as a result. Intermittency is a very good indicator for detecting event scale threshold behavior in hydrological systems. Predictability of intermittent processes/system responses is inherently low for combinations of systems states and/or boundary conditions that push the system close to a threshold. Post hoc identification of "cause-effect relations" to explain when the system became critical is inherently difficult because of our limited ability to perform observations under controlled identical experimental conditions. In this review, we distinguish three forms of threshold behavior. The first one is threshold behavior at the process level that is controlled by the interplay of local soil characteristics and states, vegetation and the rainfall forcing. Overland flow formation, particle detachment and preferential flow are examples of this. The second form of threshold behaviour is the response of systems of intermediate complexity – e.g., catchment runoff response and sediment yield – governed by the redistribution of water and sediments in space and time

  16. Rainfall simulation experiments in the Southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch rainfall simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    The dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semi-arid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30% of the plots simulations were conducted up to five time...

  17. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Melissa McLean

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

  18. Satellite and gauge rainfall merging using geographically weighted regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Hu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A residual-based rainfall merging scheme using geographically weighted regression (GWR has been proposed. This method is capable of simultaneously blending various satellite rainfall data with gauge measurements and could describe the non-stationary influences of geographical and terrain factors on rainfall spatial distribution. Using this new method, an experimental study on merging daily rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing dataset (CMOROH and gauge measurements was conducted for the Ganjiang River basin, in Southeast China. We investigated the capability of the merging scheme for daily rainfall estimation under different gauge density. Results showed that under the condition of sparse gauge density the merging rainfall scheme is remarkably superior to the interpolation using just gauge data.

  19. Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Terzo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpose.

  20. Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

    2014-05-01

    dates involving observations from multiple sites (rain gauges). The approach combines the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) with 'declustering' of the data to approximate independence based on the autocorrelation structure of each rainfall series. The cross correlation among sites is considered also to develop the event's criteria yielding a rational choice of the extreme dates given the 'spotty' nature of the intense convection. Based on the identified dates, we are developing a supporting tool for forecasting extreme rainfall based on the corresponding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The LSMPs methodology focuses on the larger-scale patterns that the model are better able to forecast, as those larger-scale patterns create the conditions fostering the local EWE. Bootstrap resampling method is applied to highlight the key features that statistically significant with the extreme events. Grotjahn, R., and G. Faure. 2008: Composite Predictor Maps of Extraordinary Weather Events in the Sacramento California Region. Weather and Forecasting. 23: 313-335.

  1. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  2. Color difference thresholds in dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paravina, Rade D; Ghinea, Razvan; Herrera, Luis J; Bona, Alvaro D; Igiel, Christopher; Linninger, Mercedes; Sakai, Maiko; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Tashkandi, Esam; Perez, Maria del Mar

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this prospective multicenter study was to determine 50:50% perceptibility threshold (PT) and 50:50% acceptability threshold (AT) of dental ceramic under simulated clinical settings. The spectral radiance of 63 monochromatic ceramic specimens was determined using a non-contact spectroradiometer. A total of 60 specimen pairs, divided into 3 sets of 20 specimen pairs (medium to light shades, medium to dark shades, and dark shades), were selected for psychophysical experiment. The coordinating center and seven research sites obtained the Institutional Review Board (IRB) approvals prior the beginning of the experiment. Each research site had 25 observers, divided into five groups of five observers: dentists-D, dental students-S, dental auxiliaries-A, dental technicians-T, and lay persons-L. There were 35 observers per group (five observers per group at each site ×7 sites), for a total of 175 observers. Visual color comparisons were performed using a viewing booth. Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy approximation was used for fitting the data points. The 50:50% PT and 50:50% AT were determined in CIELAB and CIEDE2000. The t-test was used to evaluate the statistical significance in thresholds differences. The CIELAB 50:50% PT was ΔEab  = 1.2, whereas 50:50% AT was ΔEab  = 2.7. Corresponding CIEDE2000 (ΔE00 ) values were 0.8 and 1.8, respectively. 50:50% PT by the observer group revealed differences among groups D, A, T, and L as compared with 50:50% PT for all observers. The 50:50% AT for all observers was statistically different than 50:50% AT in groups T and L. A 50:50% perceptibility and ATs were significantly different. The same is true for differences between two color difference formulas ΔE00 /ΔEab . Observer groups and sites showed high level of statistical difference in all thresholds. Visual color difference thresholds can serve as a quality control tool to guide the selection of esthetic dental materials, evaluate clinical performance, and

  3. Mathematical and physical modeling of rainfall in centrifuge

    OpenAIRE

    CAICEDO, Bernardo; THOREL, Luc; TRISTANCHO, Julian

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall simulation in centrifuge models is important for modelling soil-atmosphere interactions. However, the presence of Coriolis force, drag forces, evaporation and wind within the centrifuge may affect the distribution of rainfall over the model. As a result, development of appropriate centrifuge rain simulators requires a demanding process of experimental trial and error. This paper highlights the key factors involved in controlling rainfall in centrifuge simulations, develops a mathemat...

  4. Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    Urban run-off is characterized with fast response since the large surface run-off in the catchments responds immediately to variations in the rainfall. Modeling such type of catchments is most often done with the input from very few rain gauges, but the large variation in rainfall over small areas...... resolutions and single gauge rainfall was fed to a MOUSE run-off model. The flow and total volume over the event is evaluated....

  5. Rainfall distribution and change detection across climatic zones in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Bunmi Ogungbenro; Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo

    2014-01-01

    Nigerian agriculture is mainly rain-fed and basically dependent on the vagaries of weather especially rainfall. Nigeria today has about forty-four (44) weather observation stations which provide measurement of rainfall amount for different locations across the country. Hence, this study investigates change detection in rainfall pattern over each climatic zone of Nigeria. Data were collected for 90 years (1910–1999) period for all the weather observation stations in Nigeria, while a subdivisio...

  6. Bedding material affects mechanical thresholds, heat thresholds and texture preference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moehring, Francie; O’Hara, Crystal L.; Stucky, Cheryl L.

    2015-01-01

    It has long been known that the bedding type animals are housed on can affect breeding behavior and cage environment. Yet little is known about its effects on evoked behavior responses or non-reflexive behaviors. C57BL/6 mice were housed for two weeks on one of five bedding types: Aspen Sani Chips® (standard bedding for our institute), ALPHA-Dri®, Cellu-Dri™, Pure-o’Cel™ or TEK-Fresh. Mice housed on Aspen exhibited the lowest (most sensitive) mechanical thresholds while those on TEK-Fresh exhibited 3-fold higher thresholds. While bedding type had no effect on responses to punctate or dynamic light touch stimuli, TEK-Fresh housed animals exhibited greater responsiveness in a noxious needle assay, than those housed on the other bedding types. Heat sensitivity was also affected by bedding as animals housed on Aspen exhibited the shortest (most sensitive) latencies to withdrawal whereas those housed on TEK-Fresh had the longest (least sensitive) latencies to response. Slight differences between bedding types were also seen in a moderate cold temperature preference assay. A modified tactile conditioned place preference chamber assay revealed that animals preferred TEK-Fresh to Aspen bedding. Bedding type had no effect in a non-reflexive wheel running assay. In both acute (two day) and chronic (5 week) inflammation induced by injection of Complete Freund’s Adjuvant in the hindpaw, mechanical thresholds were reduced in all groups regardless of bedding type, but TEK-Fresh and Pure-o’Cel™ groups exhibited a greater dynamic range between controls and inflamed cohorts than Aspen housed mice. PMID:26456764

  7. Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Yuang Huang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Moderate Typhoon Morakot (2009 became the most catastrophic typhoon in Taiwan on record. The MM5 numerical experiments with and without bogus data assimilation (BDA were used to investigate the extreme rainfall mechanisms in Taiwan associated with the westbound typhoon. The BDA, based on 4DVAR, helps MM5 to maintain a more consolidated typhoon vortex and better predict the observed track after landfall, thus producing realistic extreme rainfall (about 2400 mm at the southern and Central Mountain Range (CMR of Taiwan. Severe rainfall in Taiwan is dominated by the CMR that hence modulates rainfall predictability.

  8. Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

  9. Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

    2018-03-01

    Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

  10. Characterizing rainfall parameters which influence erosivity in southeastern Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obi, M.E.; Salako, F.K.

    1993-12-01

    An investigation was carried out to characterize some selected parameters which influence rainfall erosivity in southeastern Nigeria. Rainfall amount, distribution, duration, intensity, storm types, energy loads and frequency of rain events in the region were studied using data from stations located in three major agroecological zones. Raindrop size and detaching capacity were evaluated in one of the stations for two months. The mean annual rainfall erosivity values for southeastern Nigeria point to the fact that rainfall tend to be highly erosive. 25 refs, 6 figs, 8 tabs

  11. Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

  12. Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo

    2013-04-01

    Recently, the necessity for rainfall estimation and forecasting using the radar is being highlighted, due to the frequent occurrence of torrential rainfall resulting from abnormal changes of weather. Radar rainfall data represents temporal and spatial distributions properly and replace the existing rain gauge networks. It is also frequently applied in many hydrologic field researches. However, the radar rainfall data has an accuracy limitation since it estimates rainfall, by monitoring clouds and precipitation particles formed around the surface of the earth(1.5-3km above the surface) or the atmosphere. In a condition like Korea where nearly 70% of the land is covered by mountainous areas, there are lots of restrictions to use rainfall radar, because of the occurrence of beam blocking areas by topography. This study is aiming at analyzing runoff and examining the applicability of (R(Z), R(ZDR) and R(KDP)) provided by the Han River Flood Control Office(HRFCO) based on the basin elevation of Nakdong river watershed. For this purpose, the amount of radar rainfall of each rainfall event was estimated according to three sub-basins of Nakdong river watershed with the average basin elevation above 400m which are Namgang dam, Andong dam and Hapcheon dam and also another three sub-basins with the average basin elevation below 150m which are Waegwan, Changryeong and Goryeong. After runoff analysis using a distribution model, Vflo model, the results were reviewed and compared with the observed runoff. This study estimated the rainfall by using the radar-rainfall transform formulas, (R(Z), R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) for four stormwater events and compared the results with the point rainfall of the rain gauge. As the result, it was overestimated or underestimated, depending on rainfall events. Also, calculation indicates that the values from R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) relatively showed the most similar results. Moreover the runoff analysis using the estimated radar rainfall is

  13. Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

    2016-06-01

    Since its introduction in 1954, the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method has become the standard tool, in practice, for estimating an event-based rainfall-runoff response. However, because of its empirical origins, the SCS-CN method is restricted to certain geographic regions and land use types. Moreover, it does not describe the spatial variability of runoff. To move beyond these limitations, we present a new theoretical framework for spatially lumped, event-based rainfall-runoff modeling. In this framework, we describe the spatially lumped runoff model as a point description of runoff that is upscaled to a watershed area based on probability distributions that are representative of watershed heterogeneities. The framework accommodates different runoff concepts and distributions of heterogeneities, and in doing so, it provides an implicit spatial description of runoff variability. Heterogeneity in storage capacity and soil moisture are the basis for upscaling a point runoff response and linking ecohydrological processes to runoff modeling. For the framework, we consider two different runoff responses for fractions of the watershed area: "prethreshold" and "threshold-excess" runoff. These occur before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. Our application of the framework results in a new model (called SCS-CNx) that extends the SCS-CN method with the prethreshold and threshold-excess runoff mechanisms and an implicit spatial description of runoff. We show proof of concept in four forested watersheds and further that the resulting model may better represent geographic regions and site types that previously have been beyond the scope of the traditional SCS-CN method.

  14. [Sap flux density in response to rainfall pulses for Pinus tabuliformis and Hippophae rhamnoides from mixed plantation in hilly Loess Plateau].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Sen Bao; Chen, Yun Ming; Tang, Ya Kun; Wu, Xu; Wen, Jie

    2017-11-01

    Thermal dissipation probe (TDP) was used to continuously measure the sap flux density (F d ) of Pinus tabuliformis and Hippophae rhamnoides individuals in hilly Loess Plateau, from June to October 2015, and the environmental factors, i.e., photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and soil water content (SWC), were simultaneously monitored to clarify the difference of rainfall utilization between the two tree species in a mixed plantation. Using the methods of a Threshold-delay model, stepwise multiple regression analyses, and partial correlation analyses, this paper studied the process of F d in these two species in response to the rainfall pulses and then determined the effects of environmental factors on F d . The results showed that, with the increase of rainfall, the response percentages of F d in both P. tabuliformis and H. rhamnoides increased at first but then decreased; specifically, in the range of 0-1 mm rainfall, the F d of P. tabuliformis (-16.3%) and H. rhamnoides (-6.3%) clearly decreased; in the range of 1-5 mm rainfall, the F d of P. tabuliformis decreased (-0.4%), whereas that of H. rhamnoides significantly increased (9.0%). The lower rainfall thresholds (R L ) of F d for P. tabuliformis and H. rhamnoides were 6.4 and 1.9 mm, respectively, with a corresponding time-lag (τ) of 1.96 and 1.67 days. In the pre-rainfall period, the peak time of F d of P. tabuliformis converged upon 12:00-12:30 (70%), while the F d of H. rhamnoides peaked twice, between 10:30 and 12:00 (48%) and again between 16:00 and 16:30 (30%). In the post-rainfall period, the peak time of F d of P. tabuliformis converged upon 11:00-13:00 (40%), while that of H. rhamnoides peaked twice, between 12:00 and 13:00 (52%) and again between 16:30 and 17:00 (24%). Among the environmental factors, the rank order of factors associated with the F d of both P. tabuliformis and H. rhamnoides was PAR>VPD, before rainfall. However, the rank order of factors

  15. Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

  16. Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

  17. Comparing Approaches to Deal With Non-Gaussianity of Rainfall Data in Kriging-Based Radar-Gauge Rainfall Merging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecinati, F.; Wani, O.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2017-11-01

    Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar-rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non-Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non-Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box-Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box-Cox with time-variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box-Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box-Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross-validation. However, it is observed that Box-Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.

  18. Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

  19. Optimizing Systems of Threshold Detection Sensors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Banschbach, David C

    2008-01-01

    .... Below the threshold all signals are ignored. We develop a mathematical model for setting individual sensor thresholds to obtain optimal probability of detecting a significant event, given a limit on the total number of false positives allowed...

  20. 11 CFR 9036.1 - Threshold submission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit or debit card, including one made over the Internet, the candidate shall provide sufficient... section shall not count toward the threshold amount. (c) Threshold certification by Commission. (1) After...

  1. Nuclear thermodynamics below particle threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiller, A.; Agvaanluvsan, U.; Algin, E.; Bagheri, A.; Chankova, R.; Guttormsen, M.; Hjorth-Jensen, M.; Rekstad, J.; Siem, S.; Sunde, A. C.; Voinov, A.

    2005-01-01

    From a starting point of experimentally measured nuclear level densities, we discuss thermodynamical properties of nuclei below the particle emission threshold. Since nuclei are essentially mesoscopic systems, a straightforward generalization of macroscopic ensemble theory often yields unphysical results. A careful critique of traditional thermodynamical concepts reveals problems commonly encountered in mesoscopic systems. One of which is the fact that microcanonical and canonical ensemble theory yield different results, another concerns the introduction of temperature for small, closed systems. Finally, the concept of phase transitions is investigated for mesoscopic systems

  2. Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

  3. Coping with Rainfall Variability in Northern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...... of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets....... There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local...

  4. Compositional threshold for Nuclear Waste Glass Durability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruger, Albert A.; Farooqi, Rahmatullah; Hrma, Pavel R.

    2013-01-01

    Within the composition space of glasses, a distinct threshold appears to exist that separates 'good' glasses, i.e., those which are sufficiently durable, from 'bad' glasses of a low durability. The objective of our research is to clarify the origin of this threshold by exploring the relationship between glass composition, glass structure and chemical durability around the threshold region

  5. Threshold Concepts in Finance: Student Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoadley, Susan; Kyng, Tim; Tickle, Leonie; Wood, Leigh N.

    2015-01-01

    Finance threshold concepts are the essential conceptual knowledge that underpin well-developed financial capabilities and are central to the mastery of finance. In this paper we investigate threshold concepts in finance from the point of view of students, by establishing the extent to which students are aware of threshold concepts identified by…

  6. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  7. Computational gestalts and perception thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desolneux, Agnès; Moisan, Lionel; Morel, Jean-Michel

    2003-01-01

    In 1923, Max Wertheimer proposed a research programme and method in visual perception. He conjectured the existence of a small set of geometric grouping laws governing the perceptual synthesis of phenomenal objects, or "gestalt" from the atomic retina input. In this paper, we review this set of geometric grouping laws, using the works of Metzger, Kanizsa and their schools. In continuation, we explain why the Gestalt theory research programme can be translated into a Computer Vision programme. This translation is not straightforward, since Gestalt theory never addressed two fundamental matters: image sampling and image information measurements. Using these advances, we shall show that gestalt grouping laws can be translated into quantitative laws allowing the automatic computation of gestalts in digital images. From the psychophysical viewpoint, a main issue is raised: the computer vision gestalt detection methods deliver predictable perception thresholds. Thus, we are set in a position where we can build artificial images and check whether some kind of agreement can be found between the computationally predicted thresholds and the psychophysical ones. We describe and discuss two preliminary sets of experiments, where we compared the gestalt detection performance of several subjects with the predictable detection curve. In our opinion, the results of this experimental comparison support the idea of a much more systematic interaction between computational predictions in Computer Vision and psychophysical experiments.

  8. Threshold enhancement of diphoton resonances

    CERN Document Server

    Bharucha, Aoife; Goudelis, Andreas

    2016-10-10

    The data collected by the LHC collaborations at an energy of 13 TeV indicates the presence of an excess in the diphoton spectrum that would correspond to a resonance of a 750 GeV mass. The apparently large production cross section is nevertheless very difficult to explain in minimal models. We consider the possibility that the resonance is a pseudoscalar boson $A$ with a two--photon decay mediated by a charged and uncolored fermion having a mass at the $\\frac12 M_A$ threshold and a very small decay width, $\\ll 1$ MeV; one can then generate a large enhancement of the $A\\gamma\\gamma$ amplitude which explains the excess without invoking a large multiplicity of particles propagating in the loop, large electric charges and/or very strong Yukawa couplings. The implications of such a threshold enhancement are discussed in two explicit scenarios: i) the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model in which the $A$ state is produced via the top quark mediated gluon fusion process and decays into photons predominantly through...

  9. Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

    2016-04-01

    Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to

  10. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  11. Analysis of Historical Rainfall Data and Associated Risks on Rain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distribution over the last six decades and tries to do a number of weather induced risk analysis in relation to different rainfall events that has special importance to the local farmers. Different type of rainfall events over the past six decades was assessed in relation to Ethiopian rain fed” tef” production. Tef is an important ...

  12. Fitting the Statistical Distribution for Daily Rainfall in Ibadan, Based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-06-01

    Jun 1, 2013 ... Abstract. This paper presents several types of statistical distributions to describe rainfall distribution in Ibadan metropolis over a period of 30 years. The exponential, gamma, normal and poison distributions are compared to identify the optimal model for daily rainfall amount based on data recorded at rain ...

  13. The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

    2015-11-01

    We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

  14. Rainfall intensity effects on crusting and mode of seedling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Predicted changes in rainfall intensity due to climate change are likely to influence key soil health parameters, especially structural attributes and crop growth. Variations in rainfall intensity will impact crop ... and growth in these soils. Keywords: climate change, crusting, mineralogy, penetration resistance, soil organic matter ...

  15. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mean annual rainfall at Mieso is 738 mm. The soil is a Hypo Calcic Vertisol with a high clay and silt content and is very susceptible to crusting. To achieve the objective of the study, rainfall-runoff measurements were made during 2003 and 2004 on 2 m x 2 m plots provided with a runoff measuring system, and replicated ...

  16. Analysis of Rainfall Variations and Trends in Coastal Tanzania

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation ... island of Mafia receives the highest amount of rainfall (1879 mm p.a.) while Kilwa. Masoko receives the ... However, the effects of the Pacific .... an important role in terrestrial and marine .... and ENSO, the largest coefficient being .... rainfall on the small islands of Southeast Asia.

  17. Water storage and evaporation as constituents of rainfall interception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, W; Bosveld, F; de Water, E

    1998-01-01

    Intercepted rainfall may be evaporated during or after the rain event. Intercepted rain is generally determined as the difference between rainfall measurements outside and inside the forest. Such measurements are often used to discriminate between water storage and evaporation during rain as well.

  18. Rainfall Variability and its Implications for the Transferability of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mosrof agrj~ultural qctivities in semi-arid areqs of Tanzania ,d~pend on direct rainfall: Conse-, quently, any significant variation in /he temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall usually results in serious shortage of sQil~water available to plants and thus poor crop and livestock production. In this paper the variafJility and ...

  19. Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to understand the environmental parameters pertaining to the sustenance of the region. Rainfall is one such parameter governing the hydrological processes crucial to agriculture planning, afforesta- tion and eco-system management. Therefore, it is essential to understand rainfall distribution and its variation in relevance to ...

  20. Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

    2018-05-01

    Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

  1. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for groundwater recharge estimation in west coastal South Africa. ... the data from Oudebosch with different rainfall and groundwater abstraction inputs are simulated to explore individual effects on water levels as well as recharge rate estimated on a daily basis.

  2. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to the performance of summer monsoon rain- fall over India. Variations in the total amount of rainfall have strong socio-economic consequences. Parthasarathy et al .... deviation of rainfall for training period 1961–1995, are 838.4 mm and 89.3 mm respectively. The period. 1949–1960 and 1996–2005 is used for independent.

  3. Rainfall response to dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the possibility that the increasing number and size of dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria are having a corresponding increase in rainfall in spite of the threat of climate change. We modeled the rainfall trends over 11 meteorological stations over a period of 34 years (1971 - 2004). The trends ...

  4. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall ...

  5. Rainfall estimation for hydrology using volumetric weather radar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis focuses specifically on weather radar rainfall measurements in strati form precipitation. In North-Western Europe this type of precipitation is most dominant in winter and leads to the largest hydro logical response of catchments. Unfortunately, the quality of uncorrected radar rainfall

  6. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

  7. Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history. Process control ...

  8. Scale invariance properties of rainfall in AMMA-CATCH observatory ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1International Chair in Physics Mathematics and Applications (CIPMA-Chair Unesco) , University of .... modeling the distribution of rainfall intensities, in time and space. There is particular lack of knowledge about rainfall variability at different scales [1].The knotty problem of .... Lovejoy [6] have provided the definition of.

  9. Fractal analysis of rainfall occurrence observed in the synoptic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fractal analysis is important for characterizing and modeling rainfall's space-time variations in hydrology. The purpose of this study consists on determining, in a mono-fractal framework, the scale invariance of rainfall series in Benin synopticstations located in two main geographical area: Cotonou, Bohicon , Savè in a sub ...

  10. Rainfall interception and the coupled surface water and energy balance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; et al., et al.; Moors, E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Evaporation from wet canopies (. E) can return up to half of incident rainfall back into the atmosphere and is a major cause of the difference in water use between forests and short vegetation. Canopy water budget measurements often suggest values of E during rainfall that are several times greater

  11. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth's climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model vali- dation and model ...

  12. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links (poster)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2015-01-01

    In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Urban areas often lack rainfall information. Hence, new rainfall measurement techniques are important. E.g., the number of

  13. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  14. Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

    Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

  15. Investigation of Adaptive-threshold Approaches for Determining Area-Time Integrals from Satellite Infrared Data to Estimate Convective Rain Volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Paul L.; VonderHaar, Thomas H.

    1996-01-01

    The principal goal of this project is to establish relationships that would allow application of area-time integral (ATI) calculations based upon satellite data to estimate rainfall volumes. The research is being carried out as a collaborative effort between the two participating organizations, with the satellite data analysis to determine values for the ATIs being done primarily by the STC-METSAT scientists and the associated radar data analysis to determine the 'ground-truth' rainfall estimates being done primarily at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSM&T). Synthesis of the two separate kinds of data and investigation of the resulting rainfall-versus-ATI relationships is then carried out jointly. The research has been pursued using two different approaches, which for convenience can be designated as the 'fixed-threshold approach' and the 'adaptive-threshold approach'. In the former, an attempt is made to determine a single temperature threshold in the satellite infrared data that would yield ATI values for identifiable cloud clusters which are closely related to the corresponding rainfall amounts as determined by radar. Work on the second, or 'adaptive-threshold', approach for determining the satellite ATI values has explored two avenues: (1) attempt involved choosing IR thresholds to match the satellite ATI values with ones separately calculated from the radar data on a case basis; and (2) an attempt involved a striaghtforward screening analysis to determine the (fixed) offset that would lead to the strongest correlation and lowest standard error of estimate in the relationship between the satellite ATI values and the corresponding rainfall volumes.

  16. Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Viktor; Stone, Jeffry; Holifield Collins, Chandra; Nearing, Mark A.; Paige, Ginger; Buono, Jared; Gomez-Pond, Rae-Landa

    2018-01-01

    This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with various degrees of disturbance by grazing, wildfire, or brush removal. This dataset advances our understanding of basic hydrological and biological processes that drive soil erosion on arid rangelands. It can be used to estimate runoff, infiltration, and erosion rates at a variety of ecological sites in the Southwestern USA. The inclusion of wildfire and brush treatment locations combined with long-term observations makes it important for studying vegetation recovery, ecological transitions, and the effect of management. It is also a valuable resource for erosion model parameterization and validation. The dataset is available from the National Agricultural Library at https://data.nal.usda.gov/search/type/dataset (DOI: https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1358583).

  17. Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

    2013-01-01

    The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

  18. Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Qinjian

    2014-06-02

    Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  19. Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Qinjian; Wei, Jiangfeng; Yang, Zong-Liang

    2014-01-01

    Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  20. The regional geological hazard forecast based on rainfall and WebGIS in Hubei, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Guizhou; Chao, Yi; Xu, Hongwen

    2008-10-01

    Various disasters have been a serious threat to human and are increasing over time. The reduction and prevention of hazard is the largest problem faced by local governments. The study of disasters has drawn more and more attention mainly due to increasing awareness of the socio-economic impact of disasters. Hubei province, one of the highest economic developing provinces in China, suffered big economic losses from geo-hazards in recent years due to frequent geo-hazard events with the estimated damage of approximately 3000 million RMB. It is therefore important to establish an efficient way to mitigate potential damage and reduce losses of property and life derived from disasters. This paper presents the procedure of setting up a regional geological hazard forecast and information releasing system of Hubei province with the combination of advanced techniques such as World Wide Web (WWW), database online and ASP based on WEBGIS platform (MAPGIS-IMS) and rainfall information. A Web-based interface was developed using a three-tiered architecture based on client-server technology in this system. The study focused on the upload of the rainfall data, the definition of rainfall threshold values, the creation of geological disaster warning map and the forecast of geohazard relating to the rainfall. Its purposes are to contribute to the management of mass individual and regional geological disaster spatial data, help to forecast the conditional probabilities of occurrence of various disasters that might be posed by the rainfall, and release forecasting information of Hubei province timely via the internet throughout all levels of government, the private and nonprofit sectors, and the academic community. This system has worked efficiently and stably in the internet environment which is strongly connected with meteorological observatory. Environment Station of Hubei Province are making increased use of our Web-tool to assist in the decision-making process to analyze geo

  1. Interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa linked to cut-off low associated rainfall

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The influence of cut-off low (COL) associated rainfall on interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast region of South Africa for the period 1979-2011 is investigated. COLs are objectively identified and tracked on daily average 500 h...

  2. Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study of Fuzhou City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Lian

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms. The combined effect of multiple sources and the joint probability of extremes should be considered to assess and manage flood risk better. This paper aims to study the combined effect of rainfall and the tidal level of the receiving water body on flood probability and severity in Fuzhou City, which has a complex river network. Flood severity under a range of precipitation intensities, with return periods (RPs of 5 yr to 100 yr, and tidal levels was assessed through a hydrodynamic model verified by data observed during Typhoon Longwang in 2005. According to the percentages of the river network where flooding occurred, the threshold conditions for flood severity were estimated in two scenarios: with and without working pumps. In Fuzhou City, working pumps efficiently reduce flood risk from precipitation within a 20-yr RP. However, the pumps may not work efficiently when rainfall exceeds a 100-yr RP because of the limited conveyance capacity of the river network. Joint risk probability was estimated through the optimal copula. The joint probability of rainfall and tidal level both exceeding their threshold values is very low, and the greatest threat in Fuzhou comes from heavy rainfall. However, the tidal level poses an extra risk of flood. Given that this extra risk is ignored in the design of flood defense in Fuzhou, flood frequency and severity may be higher than understood during design.

  3. Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wood, Angela M; Kaptoge, Stephen; Butterworth, Adam S

    2018-01-01

    previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard......BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without......·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100...

  4. Detection thresholds of macaque otolith afferents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiong-Jie; Dickman, J David; Angelaki, Dora E

    2012-06-13

    The vestibular system is our sixth sense and is important for spatial perception functions, yet the sensory detection and discrimination properties of vestibular neurons remain relatively unexplored. Here we have used signal detection theory to measure detection thresholds of otolith afferents using 1 Hz linear accelerations delivered along three cardinal axes. Direction detection thresholds were measured by comparing mean firing rates centered on response peak and trough (full-cycle thresholds) or by comparing peak/trough firing rates with spontaneous activity (half-cycle thresholds). Thresholds were similar for utricular and saccular afferents, as well as for lateral, fore/aft, and vertical motion directions. When computed along the preferred direction, full-cycle direction detection thresholds were 7.54 and 3.01 cm/s(2) for regular and irregular firing otolith afferents, respectively. Half-cycle thresholds were approximately double, with excitatory thresholds being half as large as inhibitory thresholds. The variability in threshold among afferents was directly related to neuronal gain and did not depend on spike count variance. The exact threshold values depended on both the time window used for spike count analysis and the filtering method used to calculate mean firing rate, although differences between regular and irregular afferent thresholds were independent of analysis parameters. The fact that minimum thresholds measured in macaque otolith afferents are of the same order of magnitude as human behavioral thresholds suggests that the vestibular periphery might determine the limit on our ability to detect or discriminate small differences in head movement, with little noise added during downstream processing.

  5. On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascaro, Giuseppe

    2018-04-01

    This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

  6. Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Tsung-Yu; Lee, Jun-Yi

    2014-01-01

    Runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming is crucial, but is poorly discussed due to the limited data length and human alteration. Historical rainfall and runoff records in pristine catchments in Taiwan were investigated through trend analysis and cross temperature difference analysis. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall and runoff in the 99.9-percentile have been significantly increasing in terms of frequency and intensity over the past four decades. Cross temperature difference analysis quantified that the rainfall and runoff extremes (including the 99.0–99.9-percentiles) may increase by 69.5% and 99.8%, respectively, under a future scenario of 1  ° C increase in temperature. This increase in intensity resembles the increase in intensity observed between 1971–1990 and 1991–2010. The amplified runoff response can be related to the limited catchment storage capacity being preoccupied by rainfall extremes. The quantified temperature effect on rainfall and runoff intensification can be a strong basis for designing scenarios, confirming and fusing GCMs’ results. In addition, the runoff amplification should be a warning for other regions with significant rainfall intensification. Appropriate strategies are indispensable and urgently needed to maintain and protect the development of societies. (paper)

  7. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiq, N.

    2015-01-01

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  8. Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

    2010-05-01

    Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

  9. Wheat yield vulnerability: relation to rainfall and suggestions for adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid Tafoughalti

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Wheat production is of paramount importance in the region of Meknes, which is mainly produced under rainfed conditions. It is the dominant cereal, the greater proportion being the soft type. During the past few decades, rainfall flaws have caused a number of cases of droughts. These flaws have seriously affecting wheat production. The main objective of this study is the assessment of rainfall variability at monthly, seasonal and annual scales and to determine their impact on wheat yields. To reduce this impact we suggested some mechanisms of adaptation. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model to evaluate the impact of rainfall on wheat yields. Data analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that soft wheat and hard wheat are strongly correlated with the period of January to March than with the whole growing-season. While they are adversely correlated with the mid-spring. This investigation concluded that synchronizing appropriate adaptation with the period of January to March was crucial to achieving success yield of wheat.

  10. Towards flash flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, E.; Jacoby, Y.; Navon, S.; Bet-Halachmi, E.

    2009-04-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model utilizing radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on five years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent five-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire ten year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood-warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  11. Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Efrat; Jacoby, Yael; Navon, Shilo; Bet-Halachmi, Erez

    2009-07-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  12. Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Stagg, Camille L.

    2014-01-01

    Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate-ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) what are the region-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) How vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) What is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We developed simple freshwater availability-based models to predict the relative abundance (i.e., coverage) of tidal wetland foundation plant species using climate data (1970-2000), estuarine freshwater inflow-focused data, and coastal wetland habitat data. Our results identify regional ecological thresholds and nonlinear relationships between measures of freshwater availability and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands. In drier coastal zones, relatively small changes in rainfall could produce comparatively large landscape-scale changes in foundation plant species abundance which would affect some ecosystem good and services. Whereas a drier future would result in a decrease in the coverage of foundation plant species, a wetter future would result in an increase in foundation plant species coverage. In many ways, the freshwater-dependent coastal wetland ecological transitions we observed are analogous to those present in dryland

  13. Multisite rainfall downscaling and disaggregation in a tropical urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.

    2014-02-01

    A systematic downscaling-disaggregation study was conducted over Singapore Island, with an aim to generate high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data under future climate-change conditions. The study consisted of two major components. The first part was to perform an inter-comparison of various alternatives of downscaling and disaggregation methods based on observed data. This included (i) single-site generalized linear model (GLM) plus K-nearest neighbor (KNN) (S-G-K) vs. multisite GLM (M-G) for spatial downscaling, (ii) HYETOS vs. KNN for single-site disaggregation, and (iii) KNN vs. MuDRain (Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation tool) for multisite disaggregation. The results revealed that, for multisite downscaling, M-G performs better than S-G-K in covering the observed data with a lower RMSE value; for single-site disaggregation, KNN could better keep the basic statistics (i.e. standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of wet hour) than HYETOS; for multisite disaggregation, MuDRain outperformed KNN in fitting interstation correlations. In the second part of the study, an integrated downscaling-disaggregation framework based on M-G, KNN, and MuDRain was used to generate hourly rainfall at multiple sites. The results indicated that the downscaled and disaggregated rainfall data based on multiple ensembles from HadCM3 for the period from 1980 to 2010 could well cover the observed mean rainfall amount and extreme data, and also reasonably keep the spatial correlations both at daily and hourly timescales. The framework was also used to project future rainfall conditions under HadCM3 SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. It was indicated that the annual rainfall amount could reduce up to 5% at the end of this century, but the rainfall of wet season and extreme hourly rainfall could notably increase.

  14. A protocol for conducting rainfall simulation to study soil runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibet, Leonard C; Saporito, Louis S; Allen, Arthur L; May, Eric B; Kleinman, Peter J A; Hashem, Fawzy M; Bryant, Ray B

    2014-04-03

    Rainfall is a driving force for the transport of environmental contaminants from agricultural soils to surficial water bodies via surface runoff. The objective of this study was to characterize the effects of antecedent soil moisture content on the fate and transport of surface applied commercial urea, a common form of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, following a rainfall event that occurs within 24 hr after fertilizer application. Although urea is assumed to be readily hydrolyzed to ammonium and therefore not often available for transport, recent studies suggest that urea can be transported from agricultural soils to coastal waters where it is implicated in harmful algal blooms. A rainfall simulator was used to apply a consistent rate of uniform rainfall across packed soil boxes that had been prewetted to different soil moisture contents. By controlling rainfall and soil physical characteristics, the effects of antecedent soil moisture on urea loss were isolated. Wetter soils exhibited shorter time from rainfall initiation to runoff initiation, greater total volume of runoff, higher urea concentrations in runoff, and greater mass loadings of urea in runoff. These results also demonstrate the importance of controlling for antecedent soil moisture content in studies designed to isolate other variables, such as soil physical or chemical characteristics, slope, soil cover, management, or rainfall characteristics. Because rainfall simulators are designed to deliver raindrops of similar size and velocity as natural rainfall, studies conducted under a standardized protocol can yield valuable data that, in turn, can be used to develop models for predicting the fate and transport of pollutants in runoff.

  15. Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

  16. Comparison between 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation methods for the simulation of a heavy rainfall case in central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzarella, Vincenzo; Maiello, Ida; Capozzi, Vincenzo; Budillon, Giorgio; Ferretti, Rossella

    2017-08-01

    This work aims to provide a comparison between three dimensional and four dimensional variational data assimilation methods (3D-Var and 4D-Var) for a heavy rainfall case in central Italy. To evaluate the impact of the assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity acquired from Monte Midia Doppler radar into the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is used.The two methods are compared for a heavy rainfall event that occurred in central Italy on 14 September 2012 during the first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment) campaign. This event, characterized by a deep low pressure system over the Tyrrhenian Sea, produced flash floods over the Marche and Abruzzo regions, where rainfall maxima reached more than 150 mm 24 h-1.To identify the best QPF, nine experiments are performed using 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation techniques. All simulations are compared in terms of rainfall forecast and precipitation measured by the gauges through three statistical indicators: probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI) and false alarm ratio (FAR). The assimilation of conventional observations with 4D-Var method improves the QPF compared to 3D-Var. In addition, the use of radar measurements in 4D-Var simulations enhances the performances of statistical scores for higher rainfall thresholds.

  17. Fluvial signatures of modern and paleo orographic rainfall gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schildgen, Taylor; Strecker, Manfred

    2016-04-01

    The morphology of river profiles is intimately linked to both climate and tectonic forcing. While much interest recently has focused on how river profiles can be inverted to derive uplift histories, here we show how in regions of strong orographic rainfall gradients, rivers may primarily record spatial patterns of precipitation. As a case study, we examine the eastern margin of the Andean plateau in NW Argentina, where the outward (eastward) growth of a broken foreland has led to a eastward shift in the main orographic rainfall gradient over the last several million years. Rivers influenced by the modern rainfall gradient are characterized by normalized river steepness values in tributary valleys that closely track spatial variations in rainfall, with higher steepness values in drier areas and lower steepness values in wetter areas. The same river steepness pattern has been predicted in landscape evolution models that apply a spatial gradient in rainfall to a region of uniform erosivity and uplift rate (e.g., Han et al., 2015). Also, chi plots from river networks on individual ranges affected by the modern orographic rainfall reveal patterns consistent with assymmetric precipitation across the range: the largest channels on the windward slopes are characterized by capture, while the longest channels on the leeward slopes are dominated by beheadings. Because basins on the windward side both lengthen and widen, tributary channels in the lengthening basins are characterized by capture, while tributary channels from neighboring basins on the windward side are dominated by beheadings. These patterns from the rivers influenced by the modern orographic rainfall gradient provide a guide for identifying river morphometric signatures of paleo orographic rainfall gradients. Mountain ranges to the west of the modern orographic rainfall have been interpreted to mark the location of orographic rainfall in the past, but these ranges are now in spatially near-uniform semi-arid to

  18. Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Shannon Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, A.; Zhang, L.

    2012-12-01

    Rainfall-Runoff analysis is the key component for many hydrological and hydraulic designs in which the dependence of rainfall and runoff needs to be studied. It is known that the convenient bivariate distribution are often unable to model the rainfall-runoff variables due to that they either have constraints on the range of the dependence or fixed form for the marginal distributions. Thus, this paper presents an approach to derive the entropy-based joint rainfall-runoff distribution using Shannon entropy theory. The distribution derived can model the full range of dependence and allow different specified marginals. The modeling and estimation can be proceeded as: (i) univariate analysis of marginal distributions which includes two steps, (a) using the nonparametric statistics approach to detect modes and underlying probability density, and (b) fitting the appropriate parametric probability density functions; (ii) define the constraints based on the univariate analysis and the dependence structure; (iii) derive and validate the entropy-based joint distribution. As to validate the method, the rainfall-runoff data are collected from the small agricultural experimental watersheds located in semi-arid region near Riesel (Waco), Texas, maintained by the USDA. The results of unviariate analysis show that the rainfall variables follow the gamma distribution, whereas the runoff variables have mixed structure and follow the mixed-gamma distribution. With this information, the entropy-based joint distribution is derived using the first moments, the first moments of logarithm transformed rainfall and runoff, and the covariance between rainfall and runoff. The results of entropy-based joint distribution indicate: (1) the joint distribution derived successfully preserves the dependence between rainfall and runoff, and (2) the K-S goodness of fit statistical tests confirm the marginal distributions re-derived reveal the underlying univariate probability densities which further

  19. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraedrich, K.

    2014-12-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  20. Threshold behavior in electron-atom scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadeghpour, H.R.; Greene, C.H.

    1996-01-01

    Ever since the classic work of Wannier in 1953, the process of treating two threshold electrons in the continuum of a positively charged ion has been an active field of study. The authors have developed a treatment motivated by the physics below the double ionization threshold. By modeling the double ionization as a series of Landau-Zener transitions, they obtain an analytical formulation of the absolute threshold probability which has a leading power law behavior, akin to Wannier's law. Some of the noteworthy aspects of this derivation are that the derivation can be conveniently continued below threshold giving rise to a open-quotes cuspclose quotes at threshold, and that on both sides of the threshold, absolute values of the cross sections are obtained

  1. A numerical study of threshold states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ata, M.S.; Grama, C.; Grama, N.; Hategan, C.

    1979-01-01

    There are some experimental evidences of charged particle threshold states. On the statistical background of levels, some simple structures were observed in excitation spectrum. They occur near the coulombian threshold and have a large reduced width for the decay in the threshold channel. These states were identified as charged cluster threshold states. Such threshold states were observed in sup(15,16,17,18)O, sup(18,19)F, sup(19,20)Ne, sup(24)Mg, sup(32)S. The types of clusters involved were d, t, 3 He, α and even 12 C. They were observed in heavy-ions transfer reactions in the residual nucleus as strong excited levels. The charged particle threshold states occur as simple structures at high excitation energy. They could be interesting both from nuclear structure as well as nuclear reaction mechanism point of view. They could be excited as simple structures both in compound and residual nucleus. (author)

  2. Iran: the next nuclear threshold state?

    OpenAIRE

    Maurer, Christopher L.

    2014-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A nuclear threshold state is one that could quickly operationalize its peaceful nuclear program into one capable of producing a nuclear weapon. This thesis compares two known threshold states, Japan and Brazil, with Iran to determine if the Islamic Republic could also be labeled a threshold state. Furthermore, it highlights the implications such a status could have on U.S. nonproliferation policy. Although Iran's nuclear program is mir...

  3. Gridded rainfall estimation for distributed modeling in western mountainous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreda, F.; Cong, S.; Schaake, J.; Smith, M.

    2006-05-01

    Estimation of precipitation in mountainous areas continues to be problematic. It is well known that radar-based methods are limited due to beam blockage. In these areas, in order to run a distributed model that accounts for spatially variable precipitation, we have generated hourly gridded rainfall estimates from gauge observations. These estimates will be used as basic data sets to support the second phase of the NWS-sponsored Distributed Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP 2). One of the major foci of DMIP 2 is to better understand the modeling and data issues in western mountainous areas in order to provide better water resources products and services to the Nation. We derive precipitation estimates using three data sources for the period of 1987-2002: 1) hourly cooperative observer (coop) gauges, 2) daily total coop gauges and 3) SNOw pack TELemetry (SNOTEL) daily gauges. The daily values are disaggregated using the hourly gauge values and then interpolated to approximately 4km grids using an inverse-distance method. Following this, the estimates are adjusted to match monthly mean values from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Several analyses are performed to evaluate the gridded estimates for DMIP 2 experiments. These gridded inputs are used to generate mean areal precipitation (MAPX) time series for comparison to the traditional mean areal precipitation (MAP) time series derived by the NWS' California-Nevada River Forecast Center for model calibration. We use two of the DMIP 2 basins in California and Nevada: the North Fork of the American River (catchment area 885 sq. km) and the East Fork of the Carson River (catchment area 922 sq. km) as test areas. The basins are sub-divided into elevation zones. The North Fork American basin is divided into two zones above and below an elevation threshold. Likewise, the Carson River basin is subdivided in to four zones. For each zone, the analyses include: a) overall

  4. Dynamical thresholds for complete fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, K.T.R.; Sierk, A.J.; Nix, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    It is our purpose here to study the effect of nuclear dissipation and shape parametrization on dynamical thresholds for compound-nucleus formation in symmetric heavy-ion reactions. This is done by solving numerically classical equations of motion for head-on collisions to determine whether the dynamical trajectory in a multidimensional deformation space passes inside the fission saddle point and forms a compound nucleus, or whether it passes outside the fission saddle point and reseparates in a fast-fission or deep-inelastic reaction. Specifying the nuclear shape in terms of smoothly joined portions of three quadratic surfaces of revolution, we take into account three symmetric deformation coordinates. However, in some cases we reduce the number of coordinates to two by requiring the ends of the fusing system to be spherical in shape. The nuclear potential energy of deformation is determined in terms of a Coulomb energy and a double volume energy of a Yukawa-plus-exponential folding function. The collective kinetic energy is calculated for incompressible, nearly irrotational flow by means of the Werner-Wheeler approximation. Four possibilities are studied for the transfer of collective kinetic energy into internal single-particle excitation energy: zero dissipation, ordinary two body viscosity, one-body wall-formula dissipation, and one-body wall-and-window dissipation

  5. Estimating annual rainfall threshold for establishment of tree species in water-limited ecosystems using tree-ring data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopez, B.C.; Holmgren, M.; Sabate, S.; Gracia, C.A.

    2008-01-01

    In arid and semi-arid ecosystems, water availability is discontinuous, highly variable, and characterized by discrete pulse events separated by long periods of limited resource availability. Plant recruitment in these ecosystems is also episodic and dependent on the water available during and after

  6. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

    2015-10-01

    How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

  7. Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its ... the earth from the clouds. The usual ... Rainfall modelling and ... Markov Models have become popular tools ... environment sciences, University of Jos, plateau state,.

  8. Mathematical rainfall model for hydrographic demarcation of Manabi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH ... To achieve this objective, the basins of the Hydrographic Demarcation of Manabí ... Keywords: multiple regression; mathematical model; GIS; Hydrology; rainfall. ... HOW TO USE AJOL.

  9. Prediction of monsoon rainfall with a nested grid mesoscale limited ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    At the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, a 12-level limited area ... namurti et al (1995, 1998) noted that the Florida .... intensifies into monsoon depression giving rise to .... available to us on rainfall over the sea is the INSAT.

  10. Prediction of meteorological parameters - 3: Rainfall and droughts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-11-01

    We describe two new methods by which rainfall and hence meteorological droughts at any location on the earth may be predicted. The first method is based upon well supported observations that rainfall distribution at a given location during any local sunspot-related temperature/heat cycle is approximately similar to the distribution during another cycle associated with approximately similar sunspot cycle provided that the two temperature/heat cycles involved are immediately preceded by approximately similar sunspot cycles. The second method is based upon the fact that rainfall belts or patterns seem to be closely related to certain spatial and time-dependent temperature/heat patterns in the earth-atmosphere system. Reasonable predictions of these temperature/heat patterns may be made, and hence the associated rainfall patterns or belts may correspondingly be predicted. Specific examples are given to illustrate the two prediction methods. (author). 12 refs, 11 figs, 1 tab

  11. Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-01-01

    Jan 1, 2016 ... Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model ..... provision of sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of a host ...... with variability of the Atlantic Ocean. Bull.

  12. The Impact of Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Li-Ming; Surratt, Jason; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, deep convective cloudiness, as well as rainfall occurrence, all increase over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions. This is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region's varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift toward afternoon hours in the deforested and savanna regions, compared to the forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that only in August did rainfall amounts increase over the deforested region.

  13. Nutrition of intensive pastures in the summer rainfall areas of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Fertilizer nitrogen sources; Fertilizers; Grasses; Legumes; Lime; Nitrogen application responses; Phosphorous; Potassium; Soil acidity; cutting; fertilizer; grass; grazing; legume; minerals; nitrogen; persistence; phosphorus; productivity; soil test calibrations; utilization; soils; nutrition; pastures; summer rainfall area; ...

  14. Effect of rainfall infiltration into unsaturated soil using soil column

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, A.; Mukhlisin, M.; Jaafar, O.

    2018-02-01

    Rainfall especially in tropical region caused infiltration to the soil slope. The infiltration may change pore water pressure or matric suction of the soil. The event of rainfall infiltration into soil is a complex mechanism. Therefore, the main objectives of this research paper is to study the influence of rainfall intensity and duration that changed pore water pressure to soil. There are two types of soils used in this study; forest soil and kaolin. Soil column apparatus is used for experiments. Rainfall were applied to the soil and result for 3, 6, 12, 24, 72, 120 and 168 hours were retrieved. Result shows that for the both types of soil, the negative pore water pressures were increased during wetting process and gradually decreased towards drying process. The results also show that pore water pressure at top part was increased greatly as the wetting process started compared to the middle and bottom part of the column.

  15. Rainfall Patterns Analysis over Ampangan Muda, Kedah from 2007 - 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chooi Tan, Kok

    2018-04-01

    The scientific knowledge about climate change and climate variability over Malaysia pertaining to the extreme water-related disaster such as drought and flood. A deficit or increment in precipitation occurred over the past century becomes a useful tool to understand the climate change in Malaysia. The purpose of this work is to examine the rainfall patterns over Ampangan Muda, Kedah. Daily rainfall data is acquired from Malaysian Meteorological Department to analyse the temporal and trends of the monthly and annual rainfall over the study area from 2007 to 2016. The obtained results show that the temporal and patterns of the rainfall over Ampangan Muda, Kedah is largely affected by the regional phenomena such as monsoon, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In addition, backward trajectories analysis is also used to identify the patterns for long-range of synoptic circulation over the region.

  16. Applicability of Doppler weather radar based rainfall data for runoff ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Radar-based hydrological studies in various countries have proven that ... in view of topographical and terrain constraints, cost restrictions and maintenance- .... SCS Unit Hydrograph (SCS UH) method converts surplus rainfall into runoff at the.

  17. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2006-01-01

    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  18. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  19. Evaluation of critical storm duration rainfall estimates used in flood ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-12-08

    Dec 8, 2010 ... quency (DDF) relationships of design rainfall in South Africa based on the critical storm .... The roughness coefficient (r) depends on the land use or cover ..... then exported as a database file (dbf) to use Microsoft Excel for.

  20. Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Arslan

    2013-09-04

    Sep 4, 2013 ... Key words: Indus River, monsoon, flooding in 2010, rainfall pattern, Climate ... data was plotted in excel sheet with upper and lower limits defined .... Houze Jr, Rasmussen R, Medina K, Brodzik S, Romatschke SU (2011).

  1. rainfall and temperature effects on flowering and pollen productions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON FLOWERING AND POLLEN. PRODUCTIONS IN COCOA ... chocolate or for extracting cocoa butter. Although, all cultivated .... healthy flowers of the selected clones. These flowers were stored in ...

  2. Nutrient fluxes in rainfall, throughfall and stemflow in Eucalyptus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Southern Forests: a Journal of Forest Science ... The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude and relevance of nutrient addition with ... was used with rainfall and canopy drainage to derive wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition.

  3. Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria. The results indicate an ... tropical and extratropical regions, are dominated .... MSG is a new series of European geostationary satellites ...

  4. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during. June and ..... the recent trends and associated physical processes. 3. Results and ... depends on the activity of the monsoon trough. To.

  5. The Interdependence between Rainfall and Temperature: Copula Analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cong, Ronggang; Brady, Mark

    2012-01-01

    possible approach to this problem, five families of copula models are employed to model the interdependence between rainfall and temperature. Scania is a leading agricultural province in Sweden and is affected by a maritime climate. Historical climatic data for Scania is used to demonstrate the modeling...... process. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of sample data are also considered to eliminate the possibility of observation error. The results indicate that for Scania there are negative correlations between rainfall and temperature for the months from April to July and September. The student copula...... is found to be most suitable to model the bivariate distribution of rainfall and temperature based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using the student copula, we simulate temperature and rainfall simultaneously. The resulting models can be integrated...

  6. Development of rainfall-runoff forecast model | Oyebode | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... and meterological variables involved in rainfall-runoff process to improve forecast accuracy of rainfallrunoff. ... The simulation was done using MATLAB® 7.0. The simulation results showed that neurofuzzy-based model has higher coefficient ...

  7. Analysis of Rainfall Intensity in Madiun Watershed, East Java

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muttaqin Muttaqin

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the reasearch in the area of Madiun River Basin is to make and to analyze the Intensity Duration Curve (IDC i.e. the curve describing graphically the relation between rainfall intensity and rainfall duration in a certain frequent period. Formulation used in the research was Talbot Formula and Ishiguro’s. In the drafting of Intensity Duration Curve it was used specific coefficient i.e by using the rainfall data of fifteen and sixty duration for both applied formulations. The IDC recorded has not mean difference because in both formulation was used coefficient of the same value. The pattern of the rainfall intensity occured directed toward Nort East. It was happened because of the moving clouds directed toward that course. Depression occured at the backward of Mount Lawu, exactly toward East.

  8. Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosny Hasanean

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The Saudi Arabia (SA climate varies greatly, depending on the geography and the season. According to K ppen and Geiger, the climates of SA is “desert climate”. The analysis of the seasonal rainfall detects that spring and winter seasons have the highestrainfall incidence, respectively. Through the summer,small quantities of precipitation are observed, while autumn received more precipitation more than summer season considering the total annual rainfall. In all seasons, the SW area receives rainfall, with a maximum in spring, whereas in the summer season, the NE and NW areas receive very little quantities of precipitation. The Rub Al-Khali (the SE region is almost totally dry. The maximum amount of annual rainfall does not always happen at the highest elevation. Therefore, the elevation is not the only factor in rainfall distribution.A great inter-annual change in the rainfall over the SA for the period (1978–2009 is observed. In addition, in the same period, a linear decreasing trend is found in the observed rainfall, whilst in the recent past (1994–2009 a statistically significant negative trend is observed. In the Southern part of the Arabian Peninsula (AP and along the coast of the Red Sea, it is interesting to note that rainfall increased, whilst it decreased over most areas of SA during the 2000–2009 decade, compared to 1980–1989.Statistical and numerical models are used to predict rainfall over Saudi Arabia (SA. The statistical models based on stochastic models of ARIMA and numerical models based on Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies of Hadley Centre (PRECIS. Climate and its qualitative character and quantified range of possible future changes are investigated. The annual total rainfall decreases in most regions of the SA and only increases in the south. The summertime precipitation will be the highest between other seasons over the southern, the southwestern provinces and Asir mountains, while the wintertime

  9. Impact of Rainfall, Sales Method, and Time on Land Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Stephens, Steve; Schurle, Bryan

    2013-01-01

    Land prices in Western Kansas are analyzed using regression to estimate the influence of rainfall, sales method, and time of sale. The estimates from regression indicate that land prices decreased about $27 for each range that was farther west which can be converted to about $75 per inch of average rainfall. In addition, the influence of method of sale (private sale or auction) is estimated along with the impact of time of sale. Auction sales prices are approximately $100 higher per acre than...

  10. Predictability of Seasonal Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2016-12-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary mode of climate variability in the Greater of Africa (GHA). The expected impacts of climate variability and change on water, agriculture, and food resources in GHA underscore the importance of reliable and accurate seasonal climate predictions. The study evaluated different model selection criteria which included the Coefficient of determination (R2), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the Fisher information approximation (FIA). A forecast scheme based on the optimal model was developed to predict the October-November-December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The predictability of GHA rainfall based on ENSO was quantified based on composite analysis, correlations and contingency tables. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The study identified FIA as the optimal model selection criterion. However, complex model selection criteria (FIA followed by BIC) performed better compared to simple approach (R2 and AIC). Notably, operational seasonal rainfall predictions over the GHA makes of simple model selection procedures e.g. R2. Rainfall is modestly predictable based on ENSO during OND and MAM seasons. El Nino typically leads to wetter conditions during OND and drier conditions during MAM. The correlations of ENSO indices with rainfall are statistically significant for OND and MAM seasons. Analysis based on contingency tables shows higher predictability of OND rainfall with the use of ENSO indices derived from the Pacific and Indian Oceans sea surfaces showing significant improvement during OND season. The predictability based on ENSO for OND rainfall is robust on a decadal scale compared to MAM. An ENSO-based scheme based on an optimal model selection criterion can thus provide skillful rainfall predictions over GHA. This study concludes that the

  11. The rainfall plot: its motivation, characteristics and pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domanska, Diana; Vodák, Daniel; Lund-Andersen, Christin; Salvatore, Stefania; Hovig, Eivind; Sandve, Geir Kjetil

    2017-05-18

    A visualization referred to as rainfall plot has recently gained popularity in genome data analysis. The plot is mostly used for illustrating the distribution of somatic cancer mutations along a reference genome, typically aiming to identify mutation hotspots. In general terms, the rainfall plot can be seen as a scatter plot showing the location of events on the x-axis versus the distance between consecutive events on the y-axis. Despite its frequent use, the motivation for applying this particular visualization and the appropriateness of its usage have never been critically addressed in detail. We show that the rainfall plot allows visual detection even for events occurring at high frequency over very short distances. In addition, event clustering at multiple scales may be detected as distinct horizontal bands in rainfall plots. At the same time, due to the limited size of standard figures, rainfall plots might suffer from inability to distinguish overlapping events, especially when multiple datasets are plotted in the same figure. We demonstrate the consequences of plot congestion, which results in obscured visual data interpretations. This work provides the first comprehensive survey of the characteristics and proper usage of rainfall plots. We find that the rainfall plot is able to convey a large amount of information without any need for parameterization or tuning. However, we also demonstrate how plot congestion and the use of a logarithmic y-axis may result in obscured visual data interpretations. To aid the productive utilization of rainfall plots, we demonstrate their characteristics and potential pitfalls using both simulated and real data, and provide a set of practical guidelines for their proper interpretation and usage.

  12. Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Svoboda, V.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Kyselý, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 4 (2016), s. 415-425 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : rainfall event * hourly rainfall * regional climate model * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.654, year: 2016 https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/johh.2016.64.issue-4/johh-2016-0036/johh-2016-0036.xml

  13. Effect of rainfall on the reliability of an infinite slope

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, J.; Papaioannou, I.; Mok, C. M.; Straub, D.

    2014-01-01

    Rainfall is one of the most common factors triggering landslides, since infiltration of water into the soil has a significant impact on pore water pressure buildup that affects slope stability. In this study, the influence of the wetting front development on the reliability of an infinite slope is analyzed. The failure condition of the slope is expressed in terms of the factor of safety. Rainfall infiltration is simulated by a time-dependent model, based on the Green and Ampt assumptions. The...

  14. Improved rainfall-runoff approach using lumped and conceptual modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Durán Barroso, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. The division of the rainfall depth between infiltration and runoff has a high level of complexity due to the spatial heterogeneity in real catchments and the temporal precipitation variability, which provide scale effects on the overall runoff volumes. The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS CN) ...

  15. What rainfall events trigger landslides on the West Coast US?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia

    2016-04-01

    A dataset of landslide occurrences compiled by collating google news reports covers 9 full years of data. We show that, while this compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it is adequate to capture the distribution of events in the major urban areas of the West Coast US and it can be used to provide a quantitative relationship between landslides and rainfall events. The case of the Seattle metropolitan area is presented as an example. The landslide dataset shows a clear seasonality in landslide occurrence, corresponding to the seasonality of rainfall, modified by the accumulation of soil moisture as winter progresses. Interannual variability of landslide occurrences is also linked to interannual variability of monthly rainfall. In most instances, landslides are clustered on consecutive days or at least within the same pentad and correspond to days of large rainfall accumulation at the regional scale. A joint analysis of the landslide data and of the high-resolution PRISM daily rainfall accumulation shows that on days when landslides occurred, the distribution of rainfall was shifted, with rainfall accumulation higher than 10mm/day being more common. Accumulations above 50mm/day much increase the probability of landslides, including the possibility of a major landslide event (one with multiple landslides in a day). The synoptic meteorological conditions associated with these major events show a mid-tropospheric ridge to the south of the target area steering a surface low and bringing enhanced precipitable water towards the Pacific North West. The interaction of the low-level flow with the local orography results in instances of a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone, with widespread rainfall accumulation above 30mm/day and localized maxima as high as 100mm/day or more.

  16. Impact of Rainfall on Multilane Roundabout Flowrate Contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    PARKSHIR, Amir; BEN-EDIGBE, Johnnie

    2017-08-01

    In this study, roundabouts at two sites in the Malaysia were investigated under rainy and dry weather conditions. Two automatic traffic counters per roundabout arm as well as two rain gauge stations were used to collect data at each surveyed site. Nearly one million vehicles were investigated at four sites. Vehicle volume, speeds and headways for entry and circulating flows were collected continuously at each roundabout about arm for six weeks between November 2013 and January 2014. Empirical regression technique and gap-acceptance models were modified and used to analyze roundabout capacity. Good fits to the data were obtained; the results also fit models developed in other countries. It was assumed that entry capacity depends on the geometric characteristics of the roundabout, particularly the diameter of the outside circle of the intersection. It was also postulated that geometric characteristics determine the speed of vehicles around the central island and, therefore, have an impact on the gap-acceptance process and consequently the capacity. Only off-peak traffic data per light, moderate or heavy rainfall were analysed. Peak traffic data were not used because of the presence of peak traffic flow. Passenger car equivalent values being an instrument of conversion from traffic volume to flow were modified. Results show that, average entry capacity loss is about 22.6% under light rainfall, about 18.1% under moderate rainfall and about 5.6% under heavy rainfall. Significant entry capacity loss would result from rainfall irrespective of their intensity. It can be postulated that entry capacity loss under heavy rainfall is lowest because the advantage enjoyed by circulating flow would be greatly reduced with increased rainfall intensity. The paper concluded that rainfall has significant impact of flowrate contraction at roundabouts.

  17. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Coughlan de Perez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

  18. Reclaimed mineland curve number response to temporal distribution of rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, R.C.; Agouridis, C.T.; Vingralek, P.T.; Fogle, A.W.

    2010-01-01

    The curve number (CN) method is a common technique to estimate runoff volume, and it is widely used in coal mining operations such as those in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. However, very little CN data are available for watersheds disturbed by surface mining and then reclaimed using traditional techniques. Furthermore, as the CN method does not readily account for variations in infiltration rates due to varying rainfall distributions, the selection of a single CN value to encompass all temporal rainfall distributions could lead engineers to substantially under- or over-size water detention structures used in mining operations or other land uses such as development. Using rainfall and runoff data from a surface coal mine located in the Cumberland Plateau of eastern Kentucky, CNs were computed for conventionally reclaimed lands. The effects of temporal rainfall distributions on CNs was also examined by classifying storms as intense, steady, multi-interval intense, or multi-interval steady. Results indicate that CNs for such reclaimed lands ranged from 62 to 94 with a mean value of 85. Temporal rainfall distributions were also shown to significantly affect CN values with intense storms having significantly higher CNs than multi-interval storms. These results indicate that a period of recovery is present between rainfall bursts of a multi-interval storm that allows depressional storage and infiltration rates to rebound. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

  19. Developing Methods For Linking Surficial Aquifers With Localized Rainfall Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafrenz, W. B.; van Gaalen, J. F.

    2008-12-01

    Water level hydrographs of the surficial aquifer can be evaluated to identify both the cause and consequence of water supply development. Rainfall, as a source of direct recharge and as a source of delayed or compounded recharge, is often the largest influence on surficial aquifer water level responses. It is clear that proximity of the rain gauge to the observation well is a factor in the degree of correlation, but in central Florida, USA, rainfall patterns change seasonally, with latitude, and with distance from the coast . Thus, for a location in central Florida, correlation of rain events with observed hydrograph responses depends on both distance and direction from an observation well to a rain gauge. In this study, we examine the use of extreme value analysis as a method of selecting the best rainfall data set for describing a given surficial aquifer monitor well. A surficial aquifer monitor well with a substantial suite of data is compared to a series of rainfall data sets from gauges ranging from meters to tens of kilometers in distance from the monitor well. The gauges vary in a wide range of directions from the monitor well in an attempt to identify both a method for rainfall gauge selection to be associated with the monitor well. Each rainfall gauge is described by a correlation coefficient with respect to the surficial aquifer water level data.

  20. RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN KLANG RIVER BASIN USING CONTINUOUS WAVELET TRANSFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso A. G. Santos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall characteristics within Klang River basin is analyzed by the continuous wavelet transform using monthly rainfall data (1997–2009 from a raingauge and also using daily rainfall data (1998–2013 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. The wavelet power spectrum showed that some frequency components were presented within the rainfall time series, but the observed time series is short to provide accurate information, thus the daily TRMM rainfall data were used. In such analysis, two main frequency components, i.e., 6 and 12 months, showed to be present during the entire period of 16 years. Such semiannual and annual frequencies were confirmed by the global wavelet power spectra. Finally, the modulation in the 8–16-month and 256– 512-day bands were examined by an average of all scales between 8 and 16 months, and 256 and 512 days, respectively, giving a measure of the average monthly/daily variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified.

  1. Annual Rainfall Forecasting by Using Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Ghalhary, G.-A.; Habibi Nokhandan, M.; Mousavi Baygi, M.

    2009-04-01

    Long-term rainfall prediction is very important to countries thriving on agro-based economy. In general, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear phenomena in nature giving rise to what is known as "butterfly effect". The parameters that are required to predict the rainfall are enormous even for a short period. Soft computing is an innovative approach to construct computationally intelligent systems that are supposed to possess humanlike expertise within a specific domain, adapt themselves and learn to do better in changing environments, and explain how they make decisions. Unlike conventional artificial intelligence techniques the guiding principle of soft computing is to exploit tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty, robustness, partial truth to achieve tractability, and better rapport with reality. In this paper, 33 years of rainfall data analyzed in khorasan state, the northeastern part of Iran situated at latitude-longitude pairs (31°-38°N, 74°- 80°E). this research attempted to train Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) based prediction models with 33 years of rainfall data. For performance evaluation, the model predicted outputs were compared with the actual rainfall data. Simulation results reveal that soft computing techniques are promising and efficient. The test results using by FIS model showed that the RMSE was obtained 52 millimeter.

  2. Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold F.; Negri, Andrew

    2002-01-01

    Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

  3. Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Jesse A.; Fung, Inez; Liu, Weihan

    2018-03-01

    The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call “frontal rain events.” In spring and early summer (known as “Meiyu Season”), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951–2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the “South Flood–North Drought” pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994–2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.

  4. A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Rainfall Algorithm Applied Over Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, A. J.; Xu, L.; Adler, R. F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The development of a satellite infrared technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall in Amazonia are presented. The Convective-Stratiform. Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), is applied during January to April 1999 over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. Results compare well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates reveal that the convective rain constitutes, in the mean, 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. The effects of geography (rivers, lakes, coasts) and topography on the diurnal cycle of convection are examined. In particular, the Amazon River, downstream of Manaus, is shown to both enhance early morning rainfall and inhibit afternoon convection. Monthly estimates from this technique, dubbed CST/TMI, are verified over a dense rain gage network in the state of Ceara, in northeast Brazil. The CST/TMI showed a high bias equal to +33% of the gage mean, indicating that possibly the TMI estimates alone are also high. The root mean square difference (after removal of the bias) equaled 36.6% of the gage mean. The correlation coefficient was 0.77 based on 72 station-months.

  5. Log canonical thresholds of smooth Fano threefolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheltsov, Ivan A; Shramov, Konstantin A

    2008-01-01

    The complex singularity exponent is a local invariant of a holomorphic function determined by the integrability of fractional powers of the function. The log canonical thresholds of effective Q-divisors on normal algebraic varieties are algebraic counterparts of complex singularity exponents. For a Fano variety, these invariants have global analogues. In the former case, it is the so-called α-invariant of Tian; in the latter case, it is the global log canonical threshold of the Fano variety, which is the infimum of log canonical thresholds of all effective Q-divisors numerically equivalent to the anticanonical divisor. An appendix to this paper contains a proof that the global log canonical threshold of a smooth Fano variety coincides with its α-invariant of Tian. The purpose of the paper is to compute the global log canonical thresholds of smooth Fano threefolds (altogether, there are 105 deformation families of such threefolds). The global log canonical thresholds are computed for every smooth threefold in 64 deformation families, and the global log canonical thresholds are computed for a general threefold in 20 deformation families. Some bounds for the global log canonical thresholds are computed for 14 deformation families. Appendix A is due to J.-P. Demailly.

  6. Thresholding magnetic resonance images of human brain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qing-mao HU; Wieslaw L NOWINSKI

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, methods are proposed and validated to determine low and high thresholds to segment out gray matter and white matter for MR images of different pulse sequences of human brain. First, a two-dimensional reference image is determined to represent the intensity characteristics of the original three-dimensional data. Then a region of interest of the reference image is determined where brain tissues are present. The non-supervised fuzzy c-means clustering is employed to determine: the threshold for obtaining head mask, the low threshold for T2-weighted and PD-weighted images, and the high threshold for T1-weighted, SPGR and FLAIR images. Supervised range-constrained thresholding is employed to determine the low threshold for T1-weighted, SPGR and FLAIR images. Thresholding based on pairs of boundary pixels is proposed to determine the high threshold for T2- and PD-weighted images. Quantification against public data sets with various noise and inhomogeneity levels shows that the proposed methods can yield segmentation robust to noise and intensity inhomogeneity. Qualitatively the proposed methods work well with real clinical data.

  7. Time-efficient multidimensional threshold tracking method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fereczkowski, Michal; Kowalewski, Borys; Dau, Torsten

    2015-01-01

    Traditionally, adaptive methods have been used to reduce the time it takes to estimate psychoacoustic thresholds. However, even with adaptive methods, there are many cases where the testing time is too long to be clinically feasible, particularly when estimating thresholds as a function of anothe...

  8. 40 CFR 68.115 - Threshold determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Regulated Substances for Accidental Release Prevention... process exceeds the threshold. (b) For the purposes of determining whether more than a threshold quantity... portion of the process is less than 10 millimeters of mercury (mm Hg), the amount of the substance in the...

  9. Applying Threshold Concepts to Finance Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoadley, Susan; Wood, Leigh N.; Tickle, Leonie; Kyng, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate and identify threshold concepts that are the essential conceptual content of finance programmes. Design/Methodology/Approach: Conducted in three stages with finance academics and students, the study uses threshold concepts as both a theoretical framework and a research methodology. Findings: The…

  10. Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

    2017-04-01

    Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

  11. Exploring the Role of Soil Moisture Conditions for Rainfall Triggered Landslides on Catchment Scale: the case of the Ialomita Sub Carpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitu, Zenaida; Bogaard, Thom; Adler, Mary-Jeanne; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Busuioc, Aristita; Sandric, Ionut; Istrate, Alexandru

    2014-05-01

    Like in many parts of the world, landslides represent in Romania recurrent phenomena that produce numerous damages to the infrastructure every few years. The high frequency of landslide events over the world has resulted to the development of many early warning systems that are based on the definition of rainfall thresholds triggering landslides. In Romania in particular, recent studies exploring the temporal occurrence of landslides have revealed that rainfall represents the most important triggering factor for landslides. The presence of low permeability soils and gentle slope degrees in the Ialomita Subcarpathians of Romania makes that cumulated precipitation over variable time interval and the hydraulic response of the soil plays a key role in landslides triggering. In order to identify the slope responses to rainfall events in this particular area we investigate the variability of soil moisture and its relationship to landslide events in three Subcarpathians catchments (Cricovul Dulce, Bizididel and Vulcana) by combining in situ measurements, satellite-based radiometry and hydrological modelling. For the current study, hourly soil moisture measurements from six soil moisture monitoring stations that are fitted with volumetric soil moisture sensors, temperature soil sensors and rain gauges sensors are used. Pedotransfer functions will be applied in order to infer hydraulic soil properties from soil texture sampled from 50 soil profiles. The information about spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture content will be completed with the Level 2 soil moisture products from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. A time series analysis of soil moisture is planned to be integrated to landslide and rainfall time series in order to determine a preliminary rainfall threshold triggering landslides in Ialomita Subcarpathians.

  12. Summary of DOE threshold limits efforts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.; Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has been developing the concept of threshold quantities for use in determining which waste materials may be disposed of as nonradioactive waste in DOE sanitary landfills. Waste above a threshold level could be managed as radioactive or mixed waste (if hazardous chemicals are present); waste below this level would be handled as sanitary waste. After extensive review of a draft threshold guidance document in 1985, a second draft threshold background document was produced in March 1986. The second draft included a preliminary cost-benefit analysis and quality assurance considerations. The review of the second draft has been completed. Final changes to be incorporated include an in-depth cost-benefit analysis of two example sites and recommendations of how to further pursue (i.e. employ) the concept of threshold quantities within the DOE. 3 references

  13. Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Zhao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

  14. The use of geostationary satellite based rainfall estimation and rainfall-runoff modelling for regional flash flood assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Suseno, Dwi Prabowo Yuga

    2013-01-01

    The availability of rainfall triggered hazard information such as flash flood is crucial in the flood disaster management and mitigation. However, providing that information is mainly hampered by the shortage of data because of the sparse, uneven or absence the hydrological or meteorological observation. Remote sensing techniques that make frequent observations with continuous spatial coverage provide useful information for detecting the hydrometeorological phenomena such as rainfall and floo...

  15. Rainfall influence on styles of mass movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, S. P.; Rengers, F. K.; Foster, M. A.; Winchell, E. W.; Anderson, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation characteristics influence whether hillslope materials move in rain-splash driven hops, shallow landslides, or in deep-seated failures. While one might expect a particular style of slope failure to dominate in a region, we report on multiple distinctive mass movements on a single ridge, each associated with different weather events. This suggests that understanding climate regulation of denudation rates and hillslope morphology requires quantifying both triggering hydro-climates, and the corresponding hillslope response to the full spectrum of events. We explore these connections on Dakota Ridge, a hogback at the eastern margin of the Colorado Front Range. The dipslope of Dakota Ridge has generated slumps, debris flows, and an earthflow over the last 4 years; Pleistocene-era deep-seated landslides are also evident. We document mass-movements along a 1 km long segment of Dakota Ridge. Weeklong precipitation and flooding in September 2013 produced slumps, each of which displaced 50-100 m3 of mobile regolith several meters downslope, and some of which triggered shallow, relatively non-erosive debris flows. By contrast, a similar precipitation total over the month of May 2015 mobilized an earthflow. The 10 m wide earthflow displaced mobile regolith downslope as much as 10 m over its 150 m length. These recent landslides are dwarfed by a 400 m wide deep-seated landslide that controls slope morphology from ridge crest to toe. Exposure ages (10Be) suggest a late-Pleistocene age for this feature. Although the September 2013 storm produced record-setting rainfall totals at daily, monthly and annual timescales (e.g., annual exceedance probability of <1/1000 for daily totals), the failures from that event, while numerous, were the smallest of all the landslides in the study area. These observations raise the question: what hydro-climatic conditions produce deep-seated, bedrock involved slope failures? Recent storms suggest that within mobile regolith, individual

  16. A Threshold Continuum for Aeolian Sand Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swann, C.; Ewing, R. C.; Sherman, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The threshold of motion for aeolian sand transport marks the initial entrainment of sand particles by the force of the wind. This is typically defined and modeled as a singular wind speed for a given grain size and is based on field and laboratory experimental data. However, the definition of threshold varies significantly between these empirical models, largely because the definition is based on visual-observations of initial grain movement. For example, in his seminal experiments, Bagnold defined threshold of motion when he observed that 100% of the bed was in motion. Others have used 50% and lesser values. Differences in threshold models, in turn, result is large errors in predicting the fluxes associated with sand and dust transport. Here we use a wind tunnel and novel sediment trap to capture the fractions of sand in creep, reptation and saltation at Earth and Mars pressures and show that the threshold of motion for aeolian sand transport is best defined as a continuum in which grains progress through stages defined by the proportion of grains in creep and saltation. We propose the use of scale dependent thresholds modeled by distinct probability distribution functions that differentiate the threshold based on micro to macro scale applications. For example, a geologic timescale application corresponds to a threshold when 100% of the bed in motion whereas a sub-second application corresponds to a threshold when a single particle is set in motion. We provide quantitative measurements (number and mode of particle movement) corresponding to visual observations, percent of bed in motion and degrees of transport intermittency for Earth and Mars. Understanding transport as a continuum provides a basis for revaluating sand transport thresholds on Earth, Mars and Titan.

  17. Precipitation thresholds for triggering floods in Corgo hydrographic basin (Northern Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

    2016-04-01

    The precipitation is a major cause of natural hazards and is therefore related to the flood events (Borga et al., 2011; Gaál et al., 2014; Wilhelmi & Morss, 2013). The severity of a precipitation event and their potential damage is dependent on the total amount of rain but also on the intensity and duration event (Gaál et al., 2014). In this work, it was established thresholds based on critical combinations: amount / duration of flood events with daily rainfall data for Corgo hydrographic basin, in northern Portugal. In Corgo basin are recorded 31 floods events between 1865 and 2011 (Santos et al., 2015; Zêzere et al., 2014). We determined the minimum, maximum and pre-warning thresholds that define the boundaries so that an event may occur. Additionally, we applied these thresholds to different flood events occurred in the past in the study basin. The results show that the ratio between the flood events and precipitation events that occur above the minimum threshold has relatively low probability of a flood happen. These results may be related to the reduced number of floods events (only those that caused damage reported by the media and produced some type of damage). The maximum threshold is not useful for floods forecasting, since the majority of true positives are below this limit. The retrospective analysis of the thresholds defined suggests that the minimum and pre warning thresholds are well adjusted. The application of rainfall thresholds contribute to minimize possible situations of pre-crisis or immediate crisis, reducing the consequences and the resources involved in emergency response of flood events. References Borga, M., Anagnostou, E. N., Blöschl, G., & Creutin, J. D. (2011). Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project. Environmental Science & Policy, 14(7), 834-844. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.017 Gaál, L., Molnar, P., & Szolgay, J. (2014). Selection of intense rainfall events based on intensity thresholds and

  18. Some observations of the variations in natural gamma radiation due to rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minato, S.

    1980-01-01

    Results of observations of variations in natural gamma-radiation flux densities due to rainfall are presented and discussed in relation to rate of rainfall. Variations of fluences with amounts of rainfall are also described. It is concluded that the frequency distribution of the ratio of the fluence to the amount of rainfall has a trend to be lognormal

  19. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  20. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

  1. Downscaling of rainfall in Peru using Generalised Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergin, E.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Wheater, H.

    2012-04-01

    The assessment of water resources in the Peruvian Andes is particularly important because the Peruvian economy relies heavily on agriculture. Much of the agricultural land is situated near to the coast and relies on large quantities of water for irrigation. The simulation of synthetic rainfall series is thus important to evaluate the reliability of water supplies for current and future scenarios of climate change. In addition to water resources concerns, there is also a need to understand extreme heavy rainfall events, as there was significant flooding in Machu Picchu in 2010. The region exhibits a reduction of rainfall in 1983, associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (SOI). NCEP Reanalysis 1 data was used to provide weather variable data. Correlations were calculated for several weather variables using raingauge data in the Andes. These were used to evaluate teleconnections and provide suggested covariates for the downscaling model. External covariates used in the model include sea level pressure and sea surface temperature over the region of the Humboldt Current. Relative humidity and temperature data over the region are also included. The SOI teleconnection is also used. Covariates are standardised using observations for 1960-1990. The GlimClim downscaling model was used to fit a stochastic daily rainfall model to 13 sites in the Peruvian Andes. Results indicate that the model is able to reproduce rainfall statistics well, despite the large area used. Although the correlation between individual rain gauges is generally quite low, all sites are affected by similar weather patterns. This is an assumption of the GlimClim downscaling model. Climate change scenarios are considered using several GCM outputs for the A1B scenario. GCM data was corrected for bias using 1960-1990 outputs from the 20C3M scenario. Rainfall statistics for current and future scenarios are compared. The region shows an overall decrease in mean rainfall but with an increase in variance.

  2. A Poisson Cluster Stochastic Rainfall Generator That Accounts for the Interannual Variability of Rainfall Statistics: Validation at Various Geographic Locations across the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongkyun Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel approach for a Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator was validated in its ability to reproduce important rainfall and watershed response characteristics at 104 locations in the United States. The suggested novel approach, The Hybrid Model (THM, as compared to the traditional Poisson cluster rainfall modeling approaches, has an additional capability to account for the interannual variability of rainfall statistics. THM and a traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall model (modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model were compared in their ability to reproduce the characteristics of extreme rainfall and watershed response variables such as runoff and peak flow. The results of the comparison indicate that THM generally outperforms the traditional approach in reproducing the distributions of peak rainfall, peak flow, and runoff volume. In addition, THM significantly outperformed the traditional approach in reproducing extreme rainfall by 2.3% to 66% and extreme flow values by 32% to 71%.

  3. Impacts of climate change on the trends of extreme rainfall indices and values of maximum precipitation at Olimpiyat Station, Istanbul, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa; Altunkaynak, Abdusselam

    2018-03-01

    In this study, extreme rainfall indices of Olimpiyat Station were determined from reference period (1971-2000) and future period (2070-2099) daily rainfall data projected using the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M global circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled by the RegCM4.3.4 regional model under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend statistics was used to detect trends in the indices of each group, and the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed ranks test was employed to identify the presence of differences among the values of the rainfall indices of the three groups. Moreover, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method was used to undertake frequency analysis and estimate the maximum 24-h rainfall values of various return periods. The results of the M-K-based trend analyses showed that there are insignificant increasing trends in most of the extreme rainfall indices. However, based on the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the values of the extreme rainfall indices determined for the future period, particularly under RCP8.5, were found to be significantly different from the corresponding values determined for the reference period. The maximum 24-h rainfall amounts of the 50-year return period of the future period under RCP4.5 of the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs were found to be larger (by 5.85%) than the corresponding value of the reference period by 5.85 and 21.43%, respectively. The results also showed that the maximum 24-h rainfall amount under RCP8.5 of both the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs was found to be greater (34.33 and 12.18%, respectively, for the 50-year return period) than the reference period values. This may increase the risk of flooding in Ayamama Watershed, and thus, studying the effects of the predicted amount of rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario on the flooding risk of Ayamama Watershed and devising management strategies are recommended to enhance the design and implementation of adaptation measures.

  4. Relations between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow- and Flood-Event Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Susan; Collins, Larry; Boldt, Eric; Staley, Dennis

    2010-05-01

    Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are often faced with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storm events themselves. We here provide information critical to this process for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 am and 4 pm, along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storm events from recently burned areas in southern California was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of postfire hydrologic events. The three-class system is based on differences between the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions that may lead to debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow- and flood-event magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) below which Magnitude I events are expected, and above which Magnitude II events may occur, are defined by A=0.4D0.55. The function A=0.6D0.50 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a Magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a Magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.1D0

  5. Relations Between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Susan H.; Boldt, Eric M.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme; Staley, Dennis M.

    2010-01-01

    Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are faced often with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storms themselves. Information critical to this process is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second 12-hour period. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of the postfire hydrologic response. The four-class system is based on a combination of the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions associated with debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow and flood magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) above which magnitude I events are expected are defined by A=0.3D0.6. The function A=0.5D0.6 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.0D0.5defines the rainfall conditions above which

  6. Hyper-arousal decreases human visual thresholds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Woods

    Full Text Available Arousal has long been known to influence behavior and serves as an underlying component of cognition and consciousness. However, the consequences of hyper-arousal for visual perception remain unclear. The present study evaluates the impact of hyper-arousal on two aspects of visual sensitivity: visual stereoacuity and contrast thresholds. Sixty-eight participants participated in two experiments. Thirty-four participants were randomly divided into two groups in each experiment: Arousal Stimulation or Sham Control. The Arousal Stimulation group underwent a 50-second cold pressor stimulation (immersing the foot in 0-2° C water, a technique known to increase arousal. In contrast, the Sham Control group immersed their foot in room temperature water. Stereoacuity thresholds (Experiment 1 and contrast thresholds (Experiment 2 were measured before and after stimulation. The Arousal Stimulation groups demonstrated significantly lower stereoacuity and contrast thresholds following cold pressor stimulation, whereas the Sham Control groups showed no difference in thresholds. These results provide the first evidence that hyper-arousal from sensory stimulation can lower visual thresholds. Hyper-arousal's ability to decrease visual thresholds has important implications for survival, sports, and everyday life.

  7. A comprehensive continent-wide regionalisation investigation for daily design rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    F. Johnson; J. Green

    2018-01-01

    Study region: Australia. Study focus: Design rainfalls, in the form of Intensity Duration Frequency curves, are the standard input for most flood studies. Methods to combine rainfall data across space are required to provide optimal estimates of design rainfalls and constrain their uncertainty. This paper robustly investigates the use of a variety of regionalization methods to provide Australia wide design rainfall estimates using 8619 high quality rainfall stations. The influence of an indiv...

  8. Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation

    OpenAIRE

    Ghazavi, Reza; Moafi Rabori, Ali; Ahadnejad Reveshty, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    Estimate design storm based on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves is an important parameter for hydrologic planning of urban areas. The main aim of this study was to estimate rainfall intensities of Zanjan city watershed based on overall relationship of rainfall IDF curves and appropriate model of hourly rainfall estimation (Sherman method, Ghahreman and Abkhezr method). Hydrologic and hydraulic impacts of rainfall IDF curves change in flood properties was evaluated via Stormw...

  9. Correlations between the air pollution and the rainfall composition in Jiului Valley area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Traistă Eugen

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall composition is conditional on the air quality. If the air is polluted, the rainfall will be also polluted. In fact, rainfall contains the same compounds like the air as nitrites, nitrates, sulphites, sulphates, ammonia etc. Some cations like calcium, magnesium, sodium and potassium are present in rainfall because of dust. This paper presents the air qualities and the soil composition influenced by the rainfall in one of the most polluted mining areas from our country, Jiului Valley.

  10. NEUTRON SPECTRUM MEASUREMENTS USING MULTIPLE THRESHOLD DETECTORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerken, William W.; Duffey, Dick

    1963-11-15

    From American Nuclear Society Meeting, New York, Nov. 1963. The use of threshold detectors, which simultaneously undergo reactions with thermal neutrons and two or more fast neutron threshold reactions, was applied to measurements of the neutron spectrum in a reactor. A number of different materials were irradiated to determine the most practical ones for use as multiple threshold detectors. These results, as well as counting techniques and corrections, are presented. Some materials used include aluminum, alloys of Al -Ni, aluminum-- nickel oxides, and magesium orthophosphates. (auth)

  11. Reaction thresholds in doubly special relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyman, Daniel; Major, Seth; Hinteleitner, Franz

    2004-01-01

    Two theories of special relativity with an additional invariant scale, 'doubly special relativity', are tested with calculations of particle process kinematics. Using the Judes-Visser modified conservation laws, thresholds are studied in both theories. In contrast with some linear approximations, which allow for particle processes forbidden in special relativity, both the Amelino-Camelia and Magueijo-Smolin frameworks allow no additional processes. To first order, the Amelino-Camelia framework thresholds are lowered and the Magueijo-Smolin framework thresholds may be raised or lowered

  12. Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2012-04-01

    During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and

  13. Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jefferson Schick

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

  14. Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2018-03-01

    Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

  15. Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall and Flood Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Xi, Chen; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration and spatial extent of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (up to 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances and floods. We present the first ever results on a global analysis of the scaling characteristics of extreme rainfall and flood event duration, volumes and contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. Results are organized by latitude and with reference to the phases of ENSO, and reveal surprising invariance across latitude. Speculation as to the potential relation to the dynamical factors is presented

  16. Damaging Rainfall and Flooding. The Other Sahel Hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarhule, A. [Department of Geography, University of Oklahoma, 100 East Boyd Street, Norman, OK, 73079 (United States)

    2005-10-01

    Damaging rainfall and rain-induced flooding occur from time to time in the drought-prone Sahel savannah zone of Niger in West Africa but official records of these events and their socioeconomic impacts do not exist. This paper utilized newspaper accounts between 1970 and 2000 to survey and illustrate the range of these flood hazards in the Sahel. During the study interval, 53 newspaper articles reported 79 damaging rainfall and flood events in 47 different communities in the Sahel of Niger. Collectively, these events destroyed 5,580 houses and rendered 27,289 people homeless. Cash losses and damage to infrastructure in only three events exceeded $4 million. Sahel residents attribute these floods to five major causes including both natural and anthropogenic, but they view the flood problem as driven primarily by land use patterns. Despite such awareness, traditional coping strategies appear inadequate for dealing with the problems in part because of significant climatic variability. Analysis of several rainfall measures indicates that the cumulative rainfall in the days prior to a heavy rain event is an important factor influencing whether or not heavy rainfall results in flooding. Thus, despite some limitations, newspaper accounts of historical flooding are largely consistent with measured climatic variables. The study demonstrates that concerted effort is needed to improve the status of knowledge concerning flood impacts and indeed other natural and human hazards in the Sahel.

  17. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  18. Rainfall estimation with TFR model using Ensemble Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asyiqotur Rohmah, Nabila; Apriliani, Erna

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall fluctuation can affect condition of other environment, correlated with economic activity and public health. The increasing of global average temperature is influenced by the increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere, which caused climate change. Meanwhile, the forests as carbon sinks that help keep the carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Climate change caused by rainfall intensity deviations can affect the economy of a region, and even countries. It encourages research on rainfall associated with an area of forest. In this study, the mathematics model that used is a model which describes the global temperatures, forest cover, and seasonal rainfall called the TFR (temperature, forest cover, and rainfall) model. The model will be discretized first, and then it will be estimated by the method of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The result shows that the more ensembles used in estimation, the better the result is. Also, the accurateness of simulation result is influenced by measurement variable. If a variable is measurement data, the result of simulation is better.

  19. Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Hazard assessment of shallow landslides represents an important aspect of land management in mountainous areas. Among all the methods proposed in the literature, physically based methods are the only ones that explicitly includes the dynamic factors that control landslide triggering (rainfall pattern, land-use. For this reason, they allow forecasting both the temporal and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Physically based methods for shallow landslides are based on the coupling of the infinite slope stability analysis with hydrological models. Three different grid-based distributed hydrological models are presented in this paper: a steady state model, a transient "piston-flow" wetting front model, and a transient diffusive model. A comparative test of these models was performed to simulate landslide occurred during a rainfall event (27–28 June 1997 that triggered hundreds of shallow landslides within Lecco province (central Southern Alps, Italy. In order to test the potential for a completely distributed model for rainfall-triggered landslides, radar detected rainfall intensity has been used. A new procedure for quantitative evaluation of distributed model performance is presented and used in this paper. The diffusive model results in the best model for the simulation of shallow landslide triggering after a rainfall event like the one that we have analysed. Finally, radar data available for the June 1997 event permitted greatly improving the simulation. In particular, radar data allowed to explain the non-uniform distribution of landslides within the study area.

  20. Multifractal rainfall extremes: Theoretical analysis and practical estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langousis, Andreas; Veneziano, Daniele; Furcolo, Pierluigi; Lepore, Chiara

    2009-01-01

    We study the extremes generated by a multifractal model of temporal rainfall and propose a practical method to estimate the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The model assumes that rainfall is a sequence of independent and identically distributed multiplicative cascades of the beta-lognormal type, with common duration D. When properly fitted to data, this simple model was found to produce accurate IDF results [Langousis A, Veneziano D. Intensity-duration-frequency curves from scaling representations of rainfall. Water Resour Res 2007;43. (doi:10.1029/2006WR005245)]. Previous studies also showed that the IDF values from multifractal representations of rainfall scale with duration d and return period T under either d → 0 or T → ∞, with different scaling exponents in the two cases. We determine the regions of the (d, T)-plane in which each asymptotic scaling behavior applies in good approximation, find expressions for the IDF values in the scaling and non-scaling regimes, and quantify the bias when estimating the asymptotic power-law tail of rainfall intensity from finite-duration records, as was often done in the past. Numerically calculated exact IDF curves are compared to several analytic approximations. The approximations are found to be accurate and are used to propose a practical IDF estimation procedure.

  1. The consecutive dry days to trigger rainfall over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. H.

    2018-01-01

    In order to resolve contradictions in addressing a soil moisture-precipitation feedback mechanism over West Africa and to clarify the impact of antecedent soil moisture on subsequent rainfall evolution, we first validated various data sets (SMOS satellite soil moisture observations, NOAH land surface model, TRMM rainfall, CMORPH rainfall and HadGEM climate models) with the Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine (AMMA) field campaign data. Based on this analysis, it was suggested that biases of data sets might cause contradictions in studying mechanisms. Thus, by taking into account uncertainties in data, it was found that the approach of consecutive dry days (i.e. a relative comparison of time-series) showed consistency across various data sets, while the direct comparison approach for soil moisture state and rainfall did not. Thus, it was discussed that it may be difficult to directly relate rain with soil moisture as the absolute value, however, it may be reasonable to compare a temporal progress of the variables. Based upon the results consistently showing a positive relationship between the consecutive dry days and rainfall, this study supports a negative feedback often neglected by climate model structure. This approach is less sensitive to interpretation errors arising from systematic errors in data sets, as this measures a temporal gradient of soil moisture state.

  2. Validation of Satellite Estimates (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM for Rainfall Variability over the Pacific Slope and Coast of Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolívar Erazo

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A dense rain-gauge network within continental Ecuador was used to evaluate the quality of various products of rainfall data over the Pacific slope and coast of Ecuador (EPSC. A cokriging interpolation method is applied to the rain-gauge data yielding a gridded product at 5-km resolution covering the period 1965–2015. This product is compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset, the Climatic Research Unit–University of East Anglia (CRU dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/TMPA 3B43 Version 7 dataset and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. The analysis reveals that TRMM data show the most realistic features. The relative bias index (Rbias indicates that TRMM data is closer to the observations, mainly over lowlands (mean Rbias of 7% but have more limitations in reproducing the rainfall variability over the Andes (mean Rbias of −28%. The average RMSE and Rbias of 68.7 and −2.8% of TRMM are comparable with the GPCC (69.8 and 5.7% and CRU (102.3 and −2.3% products. This study also focuses on the rainfall inter-annual variability over the study region which experiences floods that have caused high economic losses during extreme El Niño events. Finally, our analysis evaluates the ability of TRMM data to reproduce rainfall events during El Niño years over the study area and the large basins of Esmeraldas and Guayas rivers. The results show that TRMM estimates report reasonable levels of heavy rainfall detection (for the extreme 1998 El Niño event over the EPSC and specifically towards the center-south of the EPSC (Guayas basin but present underestimations for the moderate El Niño of 2002–2003 event and the weak 2009–2010 event. Generally, the rainfall seasonal features, quantity and long-term climatology patterns are relatively well estimated by TRMM.

  3. Approach to DOE threshold guidance limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, R.D.; Wickham, L.E.

    1984-01-01

    The need for less restrictive criteria governing disposal of extremely low-level radioactive waste has long been recognized. The Low-Level Waste Management Program has been directed by the Department of Energy (DOE) to aid in the development of a threshold guidance limit for DOE low-level waste facilities. Project objectives are concernd with the definition of a threshold limit dose and pathway analysis of radionuclide transport within selected exposure scenarios at DOE sites. Results of the pathway analysis will be used to determine waste radionuclide concentration guidelines that meet the defined threshold limit dose. Methods of measurement and verification of concentration limits round out the project's goals. Work on defining a threshold limit dose is nearing completion. Pathway analysis of sanitary landfill operations at the Savannah River Plant and the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory is in progress using the DOSTOMAN computer code. Concentration limit calculations and determination of implementation procedures shall follow completion of the pathways work. 4 references

  4. Pion photoproduction on the nucleon at threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheon, I.T.; Jeong, M.T.

    1989-08-01

    Electric dipole amplitudes of pion photoproduction on the nucleon at threshold have been calculated in the framework of the chiral bag model. Our results are in good agreement with the existing experimental data

  5. Effect of dissipation on dynamical fusion thresholds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sierk, A.J.

    1986-01-01

    The existence of dynamical thresholds to fusion in heavy nuclei (A greater than or equal to 200) due to the nature of the potential-energy surface is shown. These thresholds exist even in the absence of dissipative forces, due to the coupling between the various collective deformation degrees of freedom. Using a macroscopic model of nuclear shape dynamics, It is shown how three different suggested dissipation mechanisms increase by varying amounts the excitation energy over the one-dimensional barrier required to cause compound-nucleus formation. The recently introduced surface-plus-window dissipation may give a reasonable representation of experimental data on fusion thresholds, in addition to properly describing fission-fragment kinetic energies and isoscalar giant multipole widths. Scaling of threshold results to asymmetric systems is discussed. 48 refs., 10 figs

  6. 40 CFR 98.411 - Reporting threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Suppliers of Industrial Greenhouse Gases § 98.411 Reporting threshold. Any supplier of industrial greenhouse gases who meets the requirements of § 98.2(a)(4) must report GHG...

  7. Melanin microcavitation threshold in the near infrared

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Morgan S.; Kennedy, Paul K.; Vincelette, Rebecca L.; Schuster, Kurt J.; Noojin, Gary D.; Wharmby, Andrew W.; Thomas, Robert J.; Rockwell, Benjamin A.

    2014-02-01

    Thresholds for microcavitation of isolated bovine and porcine melanosomes were determined using single nanosecond (ns) laser pulses in the NIR (1000 - 1319 nm) wavelength regime. Average fluence thresholds for microcavitation increased non-linearly with increasing wavelength. Average fluence thresholds were also measured for 10-ns pulses at 532 nm, and found to be comparable to visible ns pulse values published in previous reports. Fluence thresholds were used to calculate melanosome absorption coefficients, which decreased with increasing wavelength. This trend was found to be comparable to the decrease in retinal pigmented epithelial (RPE) layer absorption coefficients reported over the same wavelength region. Estimated corneal total intraocular energy (TIE) values were determined and compared to the current and proposed maximum permissible exposure (MPE) safe exposure levels. Results from this study support the proposed changes to the MPE levels.

  8. Secure information management using linguistic threshold approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ogiela, Marek R

    2013-01-01

    This book details linguistic threshold schemes for information sharing. It examines the opportunities of using these techniques to create new models of managing strategic information shared within a commercial organisation or a state institution.

  9. Robust Adaptive Thresholder For Document Scanning Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsing, To R.

    1982-12-01

    In document scanning applications, thresholding is used to obtain binary data from a scanner. However, due to: (1) a wide range of different color backgrounds; (2) density variations of printed text information; and (3) the shading effect caused by the optical systems, the use of adaptive thresholding to enhance the useful information is highly desired. This paper describes a new robust adaptive thresholder for obtaining valid binary images. It is basically a memory type algorithm which can dynamically update the black and white reference level to optimize a local adaptive threshold function. The results of high image quality from different types of simulate test patterns can be obtained by this algorithm. The software algorithm is described and experiment results are present to describe the procedures. Results also show that the techniques described here can be used for real-time signal processing in the varied applications.

  10. Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Good, Peter; Bamber, Jonathan; Halladay, Kate; Harper, Anna B.; Jackson, Laura C.; Kay, Gillian; Kruijt, Bart; Lowe, Jason A.; Phillips, Oliver L.; Ridley, Jeff; Srokosz, Meric; Turley, Carol; Williamson, Phillip

    2018-01-01

    This article reviews recent scientific progress, relating to four major systems that could exhibit threshold behaviour: ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), tropical forests and ecosystem responses to ocean acidification. The focus is on advances since the

  11. Verifiable Secret Redistribution for Threshold Sharing Schemes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wong, Theodore M; Wang, Chenxi; Wing, Jeannette M

    2002-01-01

    .... Our protocol guards against dynamic adversaries. We observe that existing protocols either cannot be readily extended to allow redistribution between different threshold schemes, or have vulnerabilities that allow faulty old shareholders...

  12. Propagation of radar rainfall uncertainty in urban flood simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Sara; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

    2013-04-01

    This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic system designed to improve ensemble sewer flow predictions for the drainage network of a small urban area in the North of England. The probabilistic system has been developed to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates and propagate it through radar-based ensemble sewer flow predictions. The assessment of this system aims at outlining the benefits of addressing the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates in a probabilistic framework, to be potentially implemented in the real-time management of the sewer network in the study area. Radar rainfall estimates are affected by uncertainty due to various factors [1-3] and quality control and correction techniques have been developed in order to improve their accuracy. However, the hydrological use of radar rainfall estimates and forecasts remains challenging. A significant effort has been devoted by the international research community to the assessment of the uncertainty propagation through probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecast systems [4-5], and various approaches have been implemented for the purpose of characterizing the uncertainty in radar rainfall estimates and forecasts [6-11]. A radar-based ensemble stochastic approach, similar to the one implemented for use in the Southern-Alps by the REAL system [6], has been developed for the purpose of this work. An ensemble generator has been calibrated on the basis of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the residual error in radar estimates assessed with reference to rainfall records from around 200 rain gauges available for the year 2007, previously post-processed and corrected by the UK Met Office [12-13]. Each ensemble member is determined by summing a perturbation field to the unperturbed radar rainfall field. The perturbations are generated by imposing the radar error spatial and temporal correlation structure to purely stochastic fields. A

  13. Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

    OpenAIRE

    Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

  14. Noise thresholds for optical quantum computers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Christopher M; Haselgrove, Henry L; Nielsen, Michael A

    2006-01-20

    In this Letter we numerically investigate the fault-tolerant threshold for optical cluster-state quantum computing. We allow both photon loss noise and depolarizing noise (as a general proxy for all local noise), and obtain a threshold region of allowed pairs of values for the two types of noise. Roughly speaking, our results show that scalable optical quantum computing is possible for photon loss probabilities <3 x 10(-3), and for depolarization probabilities <10(-4).

  15. Design of Threshold Controller Based Chaotic Circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohamed, I. Raja; Murali, K.; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2010-01-01

    We propose a very simple implementation of a second-order nonautonomous chaotic oscillator, using a threshold controller as the only source of nonlinearity. We demonstrate the efficacy and simplicity of our design through numerical and experimental results. Further, we show that this approach...... of using a threshold controller as a nonlinear element, can be extended to obtain autonomous and multiscroll chaotic attractor circuits as well....

  16. Geotechnical hazards from large earthquakes and heavy rainfalls

    CERN Document Server

    Kazama, Motoki; Lee, Wei

    2017-01-01

    This book is a collection of papers presented at the International Workshop on Geotechnical Natural Hazards held July 12–15, 2014, in Kitakyushu, Japan. The workshop was the sixth in the series of Japan–Taiwan Joint Workshops on Geotechnical Hazards from Large Earthquakes and Heavy Rainfalls, held under the auspices of the Asian Technical Committee No. 3 on Geotechnology for Natural Hazards of the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering. It was co-organized by the Japanese Geotechnical Society and the Taiwanese Geotechnical Society. The contents of this book focus on geotechnical and natural hazard-related issues in Asia such as earthquakes, tsunami, rainfall-induced debris flows, slope failures, and landslides. The book contains the latest information and mitigation technology on earthquake- and rainfall-induced geotechnical natural hazards. By dissemination of the latest state-of-the-art research in the area, the information contained in this book will help researchers, des...

  17. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  18. Temperature Crosstalk Sensitivity of the Kummerow Rainfall Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Roy W.; Petrenko, Boris

    1999-01-01

    Even though the signal source for passive microwave retrievals is thermal emission, retrievals of non-temperature geophysical parameters typically do not explicitly take into account the effects of temperature change on the retrievals. For global change research, changes in geophysical parameters (e.g. water vapor, rainfall, etc.) are referenced to the accompanying changes in temperature. If the retrieval of a certain parameter has a cross-talk response from temperature change alone, the retrievals might not be very useful for climate research. We investigated the sensitivity of the Kummerow rainfall retrieval algorithm to changes in air temperature. It was found that there was little net change in total rainfall with air temperature change. However, there were non-negligible changes within individual rain rate categories.

  19. The Importance of Rainfall Distribution in Urban Drainage Operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nelen, Fons; Mooijman, Annemarieke; Jacobsen, Per

    1992-01-01

    be desired. Time-series simulations are performed for both an uncontrolled and a controlled system. It is shown that from a statistical point of view, rainfall distribution is NOT significant concerning the probability of occurrence of an overflow. The main contributing factor to the potential of real time......A control simulation model, called LOCUS, is used to investigate the effects of spatially distributed rain and the possibilities to benefit from this phenomenon by means of real time control. The study is undertaken for a catchment in Copenhagen, where rainfall is measured with a network of 8 rain...... control, concerning minimizing overflows, is to be found in the system itself, i.e. the distribution of available storage and discharge capacity. When other operational objectives are involved, e.g., to minimize peak flows to the treatment plant, rainfall distribution may be an important factor....

  20. Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Su-Hong; Gong Yan-Chun; Huang Yan-Hua; Wu Cheng-Guo; Feng Tai-Chen; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2014-01-01

    A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971–2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  1. Effects of Mediterranean shrub species on rainfall interception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Estringana, P.; Alonso-Blazquez, N.; Marques, M. J.; Bienes, R.; Alegre, J.

    2009-01-01

    Rainfall is intercepted by vegetation. Water intercepted could be evaporated, or it could drip from the leaves and stems to the soil or it could run down the stems to the base of the plant. In the Mediterranean, where water is a scant resource, interception loss could have an influence on hydrology. Water storage capacity depends on vegetation type. In the Mediterranean, there are many types of shrubs, and many of them are able to intercept large volumes of water depending on the shrub type. many lands of the Mediterranean basin of Europea Union have been abandoned in the last decades and consequently vegetation type changes too. This modifies hydrologic processes, changing the volume and the way in which the rainfall reaches the soil. The aim of this study was to characterize water storage capacity in 9 Mediterranean shrub species, working with the whole plant and comparing results obtained by two methods, rainfall simulation and submersion method in laboratory conditions. (Author) 12 refs.

  2. Improved spatial mapping of rainfall events with spaceborne SAR imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulaby, F. T.; Brisco, B.; Dobson, C.

    1983-01-01

    The Seasat satellite acquired the first spaceborne synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images of the earth's surface, in 1978, at a frequency of 1.275 GHz (L-band) in a like-polarization mode at incidence angles of 23 + or - 3 deg. Although this may not be the optimum system configuration for radar remote sensing of soil moisture, interpretation of two Seasat images of Iowa demonstrates the sensitivity of microwave backscatter to soil moisture content. In both scenes, increased image brightness, which represents more radar backscatter, can be related to previous rainfall activity in the two areas. Comparison of these images with ground-based rainfall observations illustrates the increased spatial coverage of the rainfall event that can be obtained from the satellite SAR data. These data can then be color-enhanced by a digital computer to produce aesthetically pleasing output products for the user community.

  3. Impact of the Rainfall Duration and Temporal Rainfall Distribution Defined Using the Huff Curves on the Hydraulic Flood Modelling Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nejc Bezak

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In the case of ungauged catchments, different procedures can be used to derive the design hydrograph and design peak discharge, which are crucial input data for the design of different hydrotechnical engineering structures, or the production of flood hazard maps. One of the possible approaches involves using a hydrological model where one can calculate the design hydrograph through the design of a rainfall event. This study investigates the impact of the design rainfall on the combined one-dimensional/two-dimensional (1D/2D hydraulic modelling results. The Glinščica Stream catchment located in Slovenia (central Europe is used as a case study. Ten different design rainfall events were compared for 10 and 100-year return periods, where we used Huff curves for the design rainfall event definition. The results indicate that the selection of the design rainfall event should be regarded as an important step, since the hydraulic modelling results for different scenarios differ significantly. In the presented experimental case study, the maximum flooded area extent was twice as large as the minimum one, and the maximum water velocity over flooded areas was more than 10 times larger than the minimum one. This can lead to the production of very different flood hazard maps, and consequently planning very different flood protection schemes.

  4. Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

    2018-01-01

    In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

  5. A New Wavelet Threshold Function and Denoising Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Jing-yi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the effects of denoising, this paper introduces the basic principles of wavelet threshold denoising and traditional structures threshold functions. Meanwhile, it proposes wavelet threshold function and fixed threshold formula which are both improved here. First, this paper studies the problems existing in the traditional wavelet threshold functions and introduces the adjustment factors to construct the new threshold function basis on soft threshold function. Then, it studies the fixed threshold and introduces the logarithmic function of layer number of wavelet decomposition to design the new fixed threshold formula. Finally, this paper uses hard threshold, soft threshold, Garrote threshold, and improved threshold function to denoise different signals. And the paper also calculates signal-to-noise (SNR and mean square errors (MSE of the hard threshold functions, soft thresholding functions, Garrote threshold functions, and the improved threshold function after denoising. Theoretical analysis and experimental results showed that the proposed approach could improve soft threshold functions with constant deviation and hard threshold with discontinuous function problems. The proposed approach could improve the different decomposition scales that adopt the same threshold value to deal with the noise problems, also effectively filter the noise in the signals, and improve the SNR and reduce the MSE of output signals.

  6. Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) II. Rainfall-runoff relationships and runoff processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latron, J.; Solar, M.; Nord, G.; Llorens, P.; Gallart, F.

    2009-01-01

    Hydrological response and runoff processes have been studied in the Vallcebre research basins (North Eastern Spain) for almost 20 years. Results obtained allowed to build a more complete perceptual model of the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. On a seasonal and monthly scale, there was no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. Monthly rainfall and runoff values revealed the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. At the event scale, the storm-flow coefficient had a clear seasonal pattern. The effect of the water table position on how rainfall and runoff volumes relate was observed. Examination of soil water potential and water table dynamics during representative floods helped to identify 3 types of characteristic hydrological behaviour during the year. Under dry conditions, runoff was generated essentially as infiltration excess runoff in low permeable areas, whereas saturation excess runoff dominated during wetting-up and wet conditions. During wetting-up transition, saturated areas resulted from the development of scattered perched water tables, whereas in wet conditions they were linked to the rise of the shallow water table. (Author) 8 refs.

  7. The modification of the typhoon rainfall climatology model in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-S. Lee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is focused on the modification of a typhoon rainfall climatological model, by using the dataset up to 2006 and including data collected from rain gauge stations established after the 921 earthquake (1999. Subsequently, the climatology rainfall models for westward- and northward-moving typhoons are established by using the typhoon track classification from the Central Weather Bureau. These models are also evaluated and examined using dependent cases collected between 1989 and 2006 and independent cases collected from 2007 to 2011. For the dependent cases, the average total rainfall at all rain gauge stations forecasted using the climatology rainfall models for westward- (W-TRCM12 and northward-moving (N-TRCM12 typhoons is superior to that obtained using the original climatological model (TRCM06. Model W-TRCM12 significantly improves the precipitation underestimation of model TRCM06. The independent cases show that model W-TRCM12 provides better accumulated rainfall forecasts and distributions than model TRCM06. A climatological model for accompanied northeastern monsoons (A-TRCM12 for special typhoon types has also been established. The current A-TRCM12 model only contains five historical cases and various typhoon combinations can cause precipitation in different regions. Therefore, precipitation is likely to be significantly overestimated and high false alarm ratios are likely to occur in specific regions. For example, model A-TRCM12 significantly overestimates the rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mitag, an independent case from 2007. However, it has a higher probability of detection than model TRCM06. From a disaster prevention perspective, a high probability of detection is much more important than a high false alarm ratio. The modified models can contribute significantly to operational forecast.

  8. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  9. Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.

    2016-12-01

    The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different

  10. The Use of Rainfall Variability in Flood Countermeasure Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iis Catur Wulan Dhari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the impacts of climate change is the unpredictable shifting of seasons and rainfall patterns which caused flooding. Rejoso Watershed in Pasuruan Regency is one of the watersheds that suffer from flooding almost every year due to watershed degradation characterized by land conversion and changes in the hydrological behavior including the extreme rainfall pattern. This research was aimed to investigate the effect of rainfall variability on runoff and floodwater level profile along the river channel to provide technical and non-technical recommendation for handling flood problems. The hydrological analysis was performed using HEC-HMS version 4.0 software and the hydraulic analysis was conducted using HEC-RAS version 5.0.3 software. Several variations of extreme rainfall pattern were applied in the rainfall-runoff calculation to determine the representative flood discharges that will be used as input to the hydraulic simulation for evaluating the characteristics of flood water level. The result of the research shows that rainfall with the same depth yet varies in duration and starting time generate different flood hydrographs. Rejoso River could not store flood discharge with return period of 2 years with peak discharge of 201.46 m3/s that causing overflow along the stream. The recommendation to handle flood problems is by normalization, which could reduce the overtopping at several river reaches of 4,927 m, while the combination of normalization and embankment could reduce 7,843 m from the existing river length of 12,396 m.

  11. Soil erodibility variability in laboratory and field rainfall simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Boglárka; Szabó, Judit; Jakab, Gergely; Centeri, Csaba; Szalai, Zoltán

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall simulation experiments are the most common way to observe and to model the soil erosion processes in in situ and ex situ circumstances. During modelling soil erosion, one of the most important factors are the annual soil loss and the soil erodibility which represent the effect of soil properties on soil loss and the soil resistance against water erosion. The amount of runoff and soil loss can differ in case of the same soil type, while it's characteristics determine the soil erodibility factor. This leads to uncertainties regarding soil erodibility. Soil loss and soil erodibility were examined with the investigation of the same soil under laboratory and field conditions with rainfall simulators. The comparative measurement was carried out in a laboratory on 0,5 m2, and in the field (Shower Power-02) on 6 m2 plot size where the applied slope angles were 5% and 12% with 30 and 90 mm/h rainfall intensity. The main idea was to examine and compare the soil erodibility and its variability coming from the same soil, but different rainfall simulator type. The applied model was the USLE, nomograph and other equations which concern single rainfall events. The given results show differences between the field and laboratory experiments and between the different calculations. Concerning for the whole rainfall events runoff and soil loss, were significantly higher at the laboratory experiments, which affected the soil erodibility values too. The given differences can originate from the plot size. The main research questions are that: How should we handle the soil erodibility factors and its significant variability? What is the best solution for soil erodibility determination?

  12. Monsoon effect simulation on typhoon rainfall potential - Typhoon Morakot (2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ling Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A record breaking extreme precipitation event produced 3000 mm day-1 of accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The interactions between Typhoon Morakot and the prevailing southwesterly (SW monsoon are the primary mechanism for this heavy precipitation during 5 - 13 August 2009. This extreme precipitation could be produced by the abundant moisture from the SW monsoon associated with the interaction between typhoon and monsoon wind fields, leading to severe property damage. The accurate mapping of extreme precipitation caused from the interaction between a monsoon and typhoon is critical for early warning in Taiwan. This study simulates the heavy rainfall event is based on the Weather Research and Forecast system model (WRF using the three nested domain configuration. Using data assimilation with a virtual meteorological field using the 3D-Var system, such as wind field to alter the SW monsoon strength in the initial condition, the impacts of intensified convergence and water vapor content on the accumulated rainfall are analyzed to quantize the intensification of typhoon rainfall potential. The results showed a positive correlation between the enhanced precipitation and the intensity of low-level wind speed convergence as well as water vapor content. For the Typhoon Morakot case study the rainfall for could attain approximately 2 × 104 mm at 6 hours interval in the southern Taiwan area when 10 × 10-6 s-1 convergence intensified at 850 hPa level around the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. These results suggest that low-level wind speed, convergence and water vapor content play key roles in the typhoon rainfall potential coupled with the SW monsoon.

  13. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2005-01-01

    to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  14. Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

    2016-04-01

    Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this

  15. A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

    2016-08-01

    The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

  16. Real Rainfall Time Series for Storm Sewer Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    The paper describes a simulation method for the design of retention storages, overflows etc. in storm sewer systems. The method is based on computer simulation with real rainfall time series as input ans with the aply of a simple transfer model of the ARMA-type (autoregressiv moving average model......) as the model of the storm sewer system. The output of the simulation is the frequency distribution of the peak flow, overflow volume etc. from the overflow or retention storage. The parameters in the transfer model is found either from rainfall/runoff measurements in the catchment or from one or a few...

  17. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  18. The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Suradi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin. The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern.

  19. ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVE RAINFALL INTENSITY AND WORKING RAINFALL FOR BASIC WARNING CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT ON LAHAR FLOW EVENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitriyadi Fitriyadi

    2015-05-01

    The research results showed that the number of reviewed serial rain with total value ≥ 80 mm is 9.28% of the whole serial rain, and 12.5% of them caused lahar flow in Gendol River. Debris flow occurrence probability on total rainfall amount of ≥ 80 mm that may occur on Gendol River amounted to 1.89%. This value represents less possibility of debris flow in Gendol River, this is due to the rain conditions in the Gendol Watershed different from the situation in Japan as well as the limitations of the available data. It is recommended for further research on the limitation of total rainfall in accordance with the conditions in Gendol Watershed by considering other parameters becoming the lahar flow controller factor. Further, it is necessary to perform the analysis using rain catchment method by averaging rainfall values on each of serial rain.

  20. Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

    2018-02-01

    There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of