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Sample records for hedged farmland plot

  1. A snapshot of soil water composition as an indicator of contrasted redox environments in a hedged farmland plot.

    Albéric, Patrick; Vennink, Aurélie; Cornu, Sophie; Bourennane, Hocine; Bruand, Ary

    2009-10-15

    While soil water composition has long been recognised as being related to soil type (characteristics of the horizons), the influence of structures resulting from agricultural activities (hedges, ditches, wheel ruts, etc) is still under discussion. This work was undertaken to show that a snapshot of spatial variability of the geochemical characteristics of soil water at the scale of a plot can improve our understanding of soil geochemistry in a farmland setting. We selected a 3 hectare hedged plot located on a hillside, limited by a stream and used as pasture where soils have developed in weathered gneiss. The water depth, electrical conductivity, major ions, temperature, pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content, dissolved oxygen content, fluorescence, alkalinity, Fe(2+), Mn(2+), NO(2)(-), Fe(III) and F(-) contents were measured in 62 auger holes randomly drilled on the site. Four sectors were identified in order to describe the distribution of the main geochemical parameters. Electrical conductivity and some major ions, especially sulphate, had larger concentrations near hedges where oxic conditions prevailed. These features were attributed to the impact of the linear anthropogenic network on the circulation of subsurface soil waters and evapo-transpiration and represent sector I. Dissolved Mn was an indicator of well channelled runoff subsurfaces facilitating the circulation of more highly reducing water (sector III), while DOC probably marked areas drained less well, with a prolonged contact time between soil solutions and organic topsoil horizons (sector II). The presence of dissolved Mn and Fe(II) indicates bottomland anoxic conditions (sector IV). It is concluded that a survey of the chemical composition of soil water may be a direct approach to show the influence of permanent structures on current soil properties and dynamics.

  2. Species composition of grasshoppers (Orthoptera) in open plots and farmlands in calabar metropolis, southern Nigeria.

    Oku, E E; Arong, G A; Bassey, D A

    2011-04-15

    The grasshoppers are strategic in the welfare of man and may constitute a major threat when its population is not checked. A study on the distribution of grasshoppers in open plots and farmlands was carried out within Calabar Metropolis between August to November, 2010. A total of 295 grasshoppers belonging to 11 species grouped under 3 families (Tettigoniidae, Acrididae and Pyrgomorphidae) were collected from 8 study locations. Grasshoppers were collected weekly from all study sites using sweep nets between 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. The collection was done using sweep nets between 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. when grasshoppers baked themselves under the sun. The percentage abundance of these species were Spathosterrium pygmaeum (16.27%), Tettigonia viridissima (11.86%), Catantops spissus (11.19%) Acridaturita sp. (10.17%), Gastrimargus acrididae (9.83%), Schistocerca nitens (9.49%), Tylopsis sp. (7.46%), Zonocerus variegatus (6.78%), Omocestus viridulus (6.10%), Scudderia mexicana (5.76%) and Zonocerus elegans (5.08%). Tettigonia viridissima and Acridaturita sp. were largely distributed as it occurred in 7 of 8 study sites while Scudderia mexicana was the least distributed, as it was reported in 3 sites only. The dominant grasshopper species in open plot was Spathosterrium pygmaeum (19%) in relative abundance and the least was Zonocerus variegatus (0.64%). Zonocerus variegatus was the dominant species in farmland (14%) in relative abundance and the least was Schistocerca nitens (4%). Chi-square test showed a high significant difference between the distribution of grasshoppers in open plots and farmlands (p grasshopper species composition were attributed to lizard predation and management practices such as grass cutting, fertilizer and pesticide applications. It was therefore concluded that species abundance and population of grasshoppers could be enhanced by minimizing human activities that interfere with land use.

  3. Hedging

    Couri, E.J.

    1991-01-01

    Several key factors have caused a renewed interest in natural gas and natural gas liquids. First, continued depletion of domestic oil supplies along with an increased dependence on foreign oil. Second, continued political pressures to use natural gas as a clean alternative fuel. And finally, fundamental changes in the regulation of natural gas. Energy supply and the environment are certainly an important part of this market. However, the third part, rapid deregulation is most significant to any discussion about the need for incorporating hedging and risk management into a company's business plan. This paper reports that the management of risk is a necessary function of every successful business. Uncertainties must be alleviated and potential hazards minimized. Insurance against fire, casualty, product liability and other serious threats is a traditional means corporations used to obtain protection against unpredictable and unacceptable risks. But an equal, or even greater potential for financial disaster is often present in the volatile prices of products bought or sold in the course of business operations. The process by which a corporation can protect itself against the impact of damaging fluctuations in the price of physical commodities associated with its business operations is known as hedging. Developing a corporate hedging program is a major project that must have both the involvement and commitment of senior management. Additionally, the hedging program should include a written strategic plan along with the methods for implementing and monitoring the program

  4. Soil moisture and its consequences under different management in a six year old hedged agroforestry demonstration plot in semi-arid Kenya, for two successive contrasting seasons

    Otengi, S.B.B.; Stigter, C.J.; Ng'anga, J.K.; Liniger, H.

    2007-01-01

    Hedged agroforestry (AF) demonstration plots with maize/bean intercrops were studied at Matanya in Laikipia district, Kenya, between 1991 and 1995 inclusive, to understand crop yield behaviour due to selected soil moisture conservation methods applicable in semi-arid areas. The treatments were:

  5. Microhabitat selection by three common bird species of montane farmlands in Northern Greece.

    Tsiakiris, Rigas; Stara, Kalliopi; Pantis, John; Sgardelis, Stefanos

    2009-11-01

    Common farmland birds are declining throughout Europe; however, marginal farmlands that escaped intensification or land abandonment remain a haven for farmland species in some Mediterranean mountains. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important anthropogenic microhabitat characteristics for Red-Backed Shrike (Lanius collurio), Corn Bunting (Miliaria calandra) and Common Whitethroat (Sylvia communis) in three such areas within the newly established Northern Pindos National Park. We compare land use structural and physiognomic characteristics of the habitat within 133 plots containing birds paired with randomly selected "non-bird" plots. Using logistic regression and classification-tree models we identify the specific habitat requirements for each of the three birds. The three species show a preference for agricultural mosaics dominated by rangelands with scattered shrub or short trees mixed with arable land. Areas with dikes and dirt roads are preferred by all three species, while the presence of fences and periodically burned bushes and hedges are of particular importance for Red-Backed Shrike. Across the gradient of vegetation density and height, M. calandra is mostly found in grasslands with few dwarf shrubs and short trees, S. communis in places with more dense and tall vegetation of shrub, trees and hedges, and L. collurio, being a typical bird of ecotones, occurs in both habitats and in intermediate situations. In all cases those requirements are associated with habitat features maintained either directly or indirectly by the traditional agricultural activities in the area and particularly by the long established extensive controlled grazing that prevent shrub expansion.

  6. [Impacts of farmland consolidation on farmland landscape].

    Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Li, Jun; Xu, Junfeng; Shen, Zhangquan; Gao, Yurong

    2006-01-01

    Farmland consolidation is the act of regulating, improving, and comprehensively renovating the structure, quality, and layout of field, water, road, forestry, and village in the countryside in a certain area by means of administration, economy, law, and engineering techniques according to the goal and usage defined by land use planning, so as to improve farmland use rate and its output rate, to increase farmland area, and to achieve better productive, living, and ecological environment. Recently, farmland consolidation has been carried out all over the country, especially in its economy-developed regions. But, unscientific planning and unsuitable farmland consolidation engineering have negative effects on field ecological system. In this paper, based on the technology of GIS and RS, the basic theories and methods of landscape ecology and a compositive grading method were applied to analysis the dynamics of farmland landscape fragmentation in Tongxiang county. The results showed that the farmland landscape fragmentation in this county was strongly affected by consolidation. More attention should be paid to the protection of farmland landscape during consolidation, and to avoid or decrease the negative effects resulted from unscientific planning and unsuitable farmland consolidation engineering.

  7. THE FARMLAND VALUATION REVISITED

    Xin Li

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Empirical research is scarce concerning the dynamics of farmland markets which inspire the decision to sell farmlands. This paper explores the real option to postpone the sale of land in farmland valuation. In this article, a real options approach is used to analyze farmland prices behavior using historical cash flow and land price information for Illinois. In general, rising farmland values are primarily dependent on agricultural commodity prices and interest rates. Results suggest that uncertainty about future growth and capital gains is a significant component of farmland market value. Furthermore, this research examines several shift factors of the option value of the state’s farmland by taking into account of uncertainty to improve the analysis of farmland market values.

  8. Regulating hedge funds.

    Daníelsson, J.; Zigrand, JP.

    2007-01-01

    Due to the ever-increasing amounts under management and their unregulated and opaque nature, hedge funds have emerged as a key concern for policymakers. While until now, hedge funds have been left essentially unregulated, we are seeing increasing calls for regulation for both microprudential and macroprudential reasons. In our view, most calls for the regulation of hedge funds are based on a misperception of the effectiveness of financial regulations, perhaps coupled with a lack of understand...

  9. Delta hedging strategies comparison

    De Giovanni, Domenico; Ortobelli, S.; Rachev, S.T.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we implement dynamic delta hedging strategies based on several option pricing models. We analyze different subordinated option pricing models and we examine delta hedging costs using ex-post daily prices of S&P 500. Furthermore, we compare the performance of each subordinated model...

  10. Production Flexibility and Hedging

    Georges Dionne

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We extend the analysis on hedging with price and output uncertainty by endogenizing the output decision. Specifically, we consider the joint determination of output and hedging in the case of flexibility in production. We show that the risk-averse firm always maintains a short position in the futures market when the futures price is actuarially fair. Moreover, in the context of an example, we show that the presence of production flexibility reduces the incentive to hedge for all risk averse agents.

  11. Dynamic Global Currency Hedging

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Varneskov, Rasmus T.

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a model for discrete-time hedging based on continuous-time movements in portfolio and foreign currency exchange rate returns. In particular, the vector of optimal currency exposures is shown to be given by the negative realized regression coefficients from a one......-period conditional expectation of the intra-period quadratic covariation matrix for portfolio and foreign exchange rate returns. These are labelled the realized currency betas. The model, hence, facilitates dynamic hedging strategies that depend exclusively on the dynamic evolution of the ex-post quadratic...... covariation matrix. These hedging strategies are suggested implemented using modern, yet simple, non-parametric techniques to accurately measure and dynamically model historical quadratic covariation matrices. The empirical results from an extensive hedging exercise for equity investments illustrate...

  12. Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.

    Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich

    2015-06-01

    The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds.

  13. Hedging under arbitrage

    Ruf, Johannes

    2010-01-01

    It is shown that delta hedging provides the optimal trading strategy in terms of minimal required initial capital to replicate a given terminal payoff in a continuous-time Markovian context. This holds true in market models where no equivalent local martingale measure exists but only a square-integrable market price of risk. A new probability measure is constructed, which takes the place of an equivalent local martingale measure. In order to ensure the existence of the delta hedge, sufficient...

  14. A Study of Perfect Hedges

    Stoyu I. Ivanov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we attempt to identify the asset which has the best hedging characteristics against inflation. We study stock, bond, commodity, real estate and oil indexes. We also study these indexes tracking exchange traded funds (ETFs to determine the most beneficial tradable asset in addition to the more theoretical index for inflation hedging. We find that, in our sample, oil is the best hedge against inflation, even though three in total are a good hedge—oil, gold and corn—with corn and oil being complete hedges, while gold is a partial hedge. Two assets have conflicting results depending on whether we examine the index or the ETF: the real estate index is a hedge, whereas real estate ETF is the opposite of a hedge. Similarly, the bond index is not related to inflation, whereas bond ETF is the opposite of a hedge. We find that stocks, soy and beef are not hedges against inflation.

  15. Investible benchmarks & hedge fund liquidity

    Freed, Marc S; McMillan, Ben

    2011-01-01

    A lack of commonly accepted benchmarks for hedge fund performance has permitted hedge fund managers to attribute to skill returns that may actually accrue from market risk factors and illiquidity. Recent innovations in hedge fund replication permits us to estimate the extent of this misattribution. Using an option-based model, we find evidence that the value of liquidity options that investors implicitly grant managers when they invest may account for part or even all hedge fund returns. C...

  16. Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity

    Nicole M. Boyson; Christof W. Stahel; Rene M. Stulz

    2008-01-01

    Using hedge fund indices representing eight different styles, we find strong evidence of contagion within the hedge fund sector: controlling for a number of risk factors, the average probability that a hedge fund style index has extreme poor performance (lower 10% tail) increases from 2% to 21% as the number of other hedge fund style indices with extreme poor performance increases from zero to seven. We investigate how changes in funding and asset liquidity intensify this contagion, and find ...

  17. A PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF HEDGE FUNDS, HEDGED MUTUAL FUNDS AND HEDGE FUND ETFS

    Shenyan Gu; Tina Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Hedged mutual funds and hedge fund ETFs are new entrants to the market thatallow individual investors to invest in funds using hedge fund strategies.   In this paper, we study the performance of these two funds relative to the traditional hedge funds to see if the three asset classes are comparable investments. We use four performance measurement models, including CAPM, Fama French three factor model, Carhart four factor model and Fung and Hsieh eight factor model, to test the fund...

  18. Conservative Delta Hedging

    1997-09-01

    an exact method for converting such intervals into arbitrage based prices of financial derivatives or industrial or contractual options. We call this...procedure conservative delta hedging . As existing procedures are of an ad hoc nature, the proposed approach will permit an institution’s man agement a greater oversight of its exposure to risk.

  19. The Assessment of Hedge Effectiveness

    Cristina BUNEA-BONTAS

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Earnings volatility can be a significant source of concern for a company, putting pressure on its capital base and share price. Prudent management of the company’s exposure to different risks typically involves hedging solutions. Hedging is important for corporate risk management, involving reducing the exposure of the company to specific risks. The aim of this paper is to examine the basic requirements for assessing the hedge effectiveness, this being a vital stage in applying hedge accounting, that gives the possibility to assess if the companies match the timing of the gains and losses of hedged items and their hedging derivatives. The article identifies some difficulties encountered by companies and choices that they must make in assessing hedge effectiveness.

  20. Risk analytics for hedge funds

    Pareek, Ankur

    2005-05-01

    The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

  1. Is Hedging a Habit? Hedging Ratio Determination of Cotton Producers

    Dorfman, J.H.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2010-01-01

    We examine the role that habit plays when producers determine their hedge ratio. Data were collected from U.S. cotton growers in which they indicated their hedging position in 2001 and 2002 as well as their perceived profitability, land ownership structure, and income. To account for heterogeneity,

  2. FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK HEDGING

    Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.

  3. The Motivation for Hedging Revisited

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Leuthold, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    This article develops an alternative view on the motivation to hedge. A conceptual model shows how hedging facilitates contract relationships between firms and can solve conflicts between firms. In this model, the contract preferences, level of power, and conflicts in contractual relationships of

  4. A Study of Perfect Hedges

    Stoyu I. Ivanov

    2017-01-01

    In this study, we attempt to identify the asset which has the best hedging characteristics against inflation. We study stock, bond, commodity, real estate and oil indexes. We also study these indexes tracking exchange traded funds (ETFs) to determine the most beneficial tradable asset in addition to the more theoretical index for inflation hedging. We find that, in our sample, oil is the best hedge against inflation, even though three in total are a good hedge—oil, gold and corn—with corn and...

  5. The Great Hedge of India

    Moxham, Roy

    2015-01-01

    The 'Great Hedge of India', a 3 700 kilometre-long hedge installed by the British customs to safeguard the colonial salt tax system and avoid salt smuggling totally faded from both memory and records (e.g. maps) in less than a century. Roy Moxham found traces of the hedge in a book footnote and searched it for several years until he found its meagre remains. The speaker wrote a book about this quest. He said that this story reveals how things disappear when they are no longer useful and, especially, when they are linked to parts of history that are not deemed particularly positive (the hedge was a means of colonial power)

  6. On hedge effectiveness assessment under IFRS 9

    Jatinder Pal Singh

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available IFRS 9 has introduced certain radical changes to the hedge effectiveness assessment criteria of IAS 39 for entities desirous of availing hedge accounting. It is necessary for business entities contemplating the use of financial derivatives for hedging purposes to appreciate the nuances associated with the upstaged provisions of hedge accounting of IFRS 9 in context of hedge effectiveness requirements envisaged therein. The present article addresses this issue and provides a threadbare analysis of the fundamental model on which the IFRS 9 hedge effectiveness assessment is premised.

  7. Quadratic Hedging of Basis Risk

    Hardy Hulley

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines a simple basis risk model based on correlated geometric Brownian motions. We apply quadratic criteria to minimize basis risk and hedge in an optimal manner. Initially, we derive the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition for a European claim. This allows pricing and hedging under the minimal martingale measure, corresponding to the local risk-minimizing strategy. Furthermore, since the mean-variance tradeoff process is deterministic in our setup, the minimal martingale- and variance-optimal martingale measures coincide. Consequently, the mean-variance optimal strategy is easily constructed. Simple pricing and hedging formulae for put and call options are derived in terms of the Black–Scholes formula. Due to market incompleteness, these formulae depend on the drift parameters of the processes. By making a further equilibrium assumption, we derive an approximate hedging formula, which does not require knowledge of these parameters. The hedging strategies are tested using Monte Carlo experiments, and are compared with results achieved using a utility maximization approach.

  8. Option Derivatives in Electricity Hedging

    P. Pavlátka

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the high volatility of electricity prices, there is still little demand for electricity power options, and the liquidity on the power exchanges of these power derivatives is quite low. One of the reasons is the uncertainty about how to evaluate these electricity options and about finding the right fair value of this product. Hedging of electricity is associated mainly with products such as futures and forwards. However, due to new trends in electricity trading and hedging, it is also useful to think more about options and the principles for working with them in hedging various portfolio positions and counterparties. We can quite often encounter a situation when we need to have a perfect hedge for our customer’s (end user consuming electricity portfolio, or we have to evaluate the volumetric risk (inability of a customer to predict consumption, which is very similar to selling options. Now comes the moment to compare the effects of using options or futures to hedge these open positions. From a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available and the simplest method for evaluating option premiums, but there are some limitations that we have to consider.

  9. The Importance of Linear Landscape Elements for Bats in a Farmland Area: The Influence of Height on Activity

    Toffoli Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past 50 years, widespread removal of hedges and hedgerows in many European regions, with a consequent reduction in biodiversity, has occurred as a result of farming intensification. Acknowledging the ecological importance of linear farmland landscape elements, many agro-environmental schemes provide financial support for the management, conservation and reconstruction of hedges and hedgerows. The efficacy of such initiatives, also aimed at bat conservation, could be enhanced by including the role of hedges and hedgerows correlated to the variability of their physical structure and to the surrounding landscape context. Linear landscape elements are in fact of great importance to bats, whose flight activity tends to increase in proximity to hedges and hedgerows, used both during foraging and as commuting routes. Nevertheless, information concerning the correlation between various physical structures of hedges and flight and foraging techniques in bats is still lacking. The present study analyses the activity of bats along two different hedge types, with and without trees, and in open spaces, in an area of the Padana plane (North-western Italy as a function of different flight behaviours.

  10. Bet-hedging applications for conservation

    Unknown

    Bet hedging; Bitterroot wilderness; environmental correlation; grizzly bear; least tern; Sterna antillarum; Ursus arctos horribilis ... market, a hedging investor can reduce the risk of devas- ..... populations were approximated by three methods:.

  11. Selective hedging strategies for oil stockpiling

    Yun, Won-Cheol

    2006-01-01

    As a feasible option for improving the economics and operational efficiency of stockpiling by public agency, this study suggests simple selective hedging strategies using forward contracts. The main advantage of these selective hedging strategies over the previous ones is not to predict future spot prices, but to utilize the sign and magnitude of basis easily available to the public. Using the weekly spot and forward prices of West Texas Intermediate for the period of October 1997-August 2002, this study adopts an ex ante out-of-sample analysis to examine selective hedging performances compared to no-hedge and minimum-variance routine hedging strategies. To some extent, selective hedging strategies dominate the traditional routine hedging strategy, but do not improve upon the expected returns of no-hedge case, which is mainly due to the data characteristics of out-of-sample period used in this analysis

  12. Hedge Funds as Investors of Last Resort?

    David J. Brophy; Paige P. Ouimet; Clemens Sialm

    2009-01-01

    Hedge funds have become important investors in public companies raising equity privately. Hedge funds tend to finance companies that have poor fundamentals and pronounced information asymmetries. To compensate for these shortcomings, hedge funds protect themselves by requiring substantial discounts, negotiating repricing rights, and entering into short positions of the underlying stocks. We find that companies that obtain financing from hedge funds significantly underperform companies that ob...

  13. Market conditions and hedge fund survival

    Mark A. Carlson; Jason Steinman

    2008-01-01

    As the hedge fund industry has grown, there has been increased concern that, during sharp market moves, hedge fund failures could exacerbate the deterioration in financial conditions and deepen a crisis. However, there has not been much formal analysis regarding the impact of financial market conditions on hedge fund survival. To help fill this gap, this paper examines the relationship between financial market conditions and the likelihood of hedge fund failure after controlling for performan...

  14. Hedging strategy for crude oil trading and the factors influencing hedging effectiveness

    Yun, Won-Cheol; Jae Kim, Hyun

    2010-01-01

    This study analyzes the hedging effectiveness of different hedge type and period by Korean oil traders. Both crude oil price and exchange rate risks are considered. Theoretical models are formulated to estimate the hedge ratios by separate and complex hedge types. The hedging period covers 1-12 months. This study also performs some statistical works to investigate the relationship between the hedging effectiveness and the crude oil price sensitivity to exchange rate. In addition, the relationship between the hedging effectiveness and the volatilities of crude oil price and exchange rate is analyzed. (author)

  15. Optimal Hedging with the Vector Autoregressive Model

    L. Gatarek (Lukasz); S.G. Johansen (Soren)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ We derive the optimal hedging ratios for a portfolio of assets driven by a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model with general cointegration rank. Our hedge is optimal in the sense of minimum variance portfolio. We consider a model that allows for the hedges to be

  16. How hedge woody species diversity and habitat change is a function of land use history and recent management in a European agricultural landscape.

    McCann, Thomas; Cooper, Alan; Rogers, David; McKenzie, Paul; McErlean, Thomas

    2017-07-01

    European hedged agricultural landscapes provide a range of ecosystem services and are an important component of cultural and biodiversity heritage. This paper investigates the extent of hedges, their woody species diversity (including the influence of historical versus recent hedge origin) and dynamics of change. The rationale is to contribute to an ecological basis for hedge habitat management. Sample sites were allocated based on a multivariate classification of landscape attributes. All field boundaries present in each site were mapped and surveyed in 1998 and 2007. To assess diversity, a list of all woody species was recorded in one standard 30 m linear plot within each hedge. There was a net decrease in hedge habitat extent, mainly as a result of removal, and changes between hedges and other field boundary types due to the development and loss of shrub growth-form. Agricultural intensification, increased rural building, and variation in hedge management practices were the main drivers of change. Hedges surveyed at baseline, which were lost at resurvey, were more species rich than new hedges gained. Hedges coinciding with historical land unit boundaries of likely Early Medieval origin were found to be more species rich. The most frequent woody species in hedges were native, including a high proportion with Fraxinus excelsior, a species under threat from current and emerging plant pests and pathogens. Introduced species were present in circa 30% of hedges. We conclude that since hedge habitat distribution and woody species diversity is a function of ecology and anthropogenic factors, the management of hedges in enclosed agricultural landscapes requires an integrated approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Plot 3

    Lund, Inger-Lise; Gjessing, Susanne; Hermansen, Anne-Mette

    Plot 3 er første udgivelse af et alsidigt dansksystem til mellemtrinnet, hvor digitale medier er integreret i den daglige undervisning.......Plot 3 er første udgivelse af et alsidigt dansksystem til mellemtrinnet, hvor digitale medier er integreret i den daglige undervisning....

  18. Effectiveness of narrow grass hedges in reducing atrazine runoff under different slope gradient conditions.

    Wang, Qinghai; Li, Cui; Chen, Chao; Chen, Jie; Zheng, Ruilun; Que, Xiaoe

    2018-03-01

    Atrazine is frequently detected in surface runoff and poses a potential threat to the environment. Grass hedges may minimize runoff loss of atrazine from crop fields. Therefore, the effectiveness of two grass hedges (Melilotus albus and Pennisetum alopecuroides) in controlling atrazine runoff was investigated using simulated rainfall on lands at different slope gradients (15 and 20%) in northern China. Results showed that a storm (40 mm in 1 h), occurring 4 h after atrazine application, caused a loss of 3% of the applied amount. Atrazine loss under 20% slope was significantly greater than that under 15% slope in control plots. Atrazine exports associated with the water fraction accounted for the majority of total loss. Pennisetum hedges were more efficient in controlling atrazine loss with runoff compared to Melilotus hedges. No significant difference in the capacity of grass hedges to reduce atrazine exports was observed between 15 and 20% slopes. These findings suggest grass hedges are effective in minimizing atrazine runoff in northern China, and Pennisetum hedges should be preferentially used on sloping croplands in similar climatic regions.

  19. Hedging Effectiveness and Optimal Hedge Ratios: An Analysis of Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures Market

    OH, STELLA JIA XIN

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia for the period from January 2000 to August 2015. To measure hedging performances of optimal hedge ratio, different measures have been employed such as the static hedge ratio estimation models of conventional Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), while the time-varying model is presented by the Diagonal Vech Multivariate Generalized A...

  20. Product plots.

    Wickham, Hadley; Hofmann, Heike

    2011-12-01

    We propose a new framework for visualising tables of counts, proportions and probabilities. We call our framework product plots, alluding to the computation of area as a product of height and width, and the statistical concept of generating a joint distribution from the product of conditional and marginal distributions. The framework, with extensions, is sufficient to encompass over 20 visualisations previously described in fields of statistical graphics and infovis, including bar charts, mosaic plots, treemaps, equal area plots and fluctuation diagrams. © 2011 IEEE

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANIES AND HEDGE ACCOUNTING

    SABIN ARMĂŞELU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing use of derivatives for risk management of a company lately has led to the need to report on an actual basis as these instruments and regulate these operations accounting. This paper proposes a presentation of hedging transactions and their accounting evaluating the impact, in terms of accounting, risk management derivatives on a company. Hedges are often ineffective. Overcoming the ineffectiveness of hedging operations can be achieved by proper designation of the hedging relationship and create an appropriate method to demonstrate hedge effectiveness.

  2. Crude oil hedging: benchmarking price protection strategies

    Krapels, Edward N.; Pratt, Michael

    1998-01-01

    This report presents a review of hedging (protection against a loss) strategies in the crude oil futures and options markets. The introductory section of the report gives details of hedging instruments, and the purposes of hedging crude oil. Hedging strategies including pure futures strategies, pure options strategies, options combination strategies, exotic (Asian) options strategies, and insurance instruments are described. The West Texas intermediate (WTI) market depth, liquidity and hedging effectiveness are examined, and winners and losers, and energy consumers are considered. The appendix gives tables and charts summarising the outcomes of futures and options strategies under different market conditions and expectations. (UK)

  3. MITIGATING FINANCIAL RISK BY USING HEDGING STRATEGIES

    Anca BUTNARIU

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Financial derivatives are now widely used by corporations to manage exposure to currency, interest rate, and commodity price risks. The motivation for non-financial firms to engage in corporate hedging is one of the most intensively discussed topics in corporate finance research. Recent financial theory suggests that there are several ways through which corporate hedging can increase firm value in the sense of the maximization of shareholder value. A rich body of literature consists of studies that have empirically investigated the theoretical explanations for corporate hedging, literature that presents rather mixed evidence for the drivers of corporate hedging. This paper investigates the effects of hedging activity on non-financial firm value and how operational hedging is related to and differentiated by financial hedging, by providing an extensive overview and synthesis of the existing literature.

  4. HEDGING AS A BUSINESS RISK PROTECTION INSTRUMENT

    Ivo Šperanda

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with hedging which is one of the trading techniques in the futures markets and with the role of hedging as a protecting strategy. Indirectly, hedging affects the competitiveness of a company by reducing overall operating expenses and increasing the level of competitiveness at the same time. The theoretical fundamentals of the hedging strategy are explained, followed by a survey on relevant theoretical findings and research on hedging and its importance in contemporary economic life. Basic types of risk in firms are clearly described, as well as principal hedging models which are in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards. Finally, the paper deals with the financial aspects of hedging, stressing the role and the importance of the principle of the financial leverage.

  5. Farmland Mapping and Monitoring 2004 Mosaic

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) produces maps and statistical data used for analyzing impacts on California's agricultural resources. Agricultural...

  6. Taxonomic and functional diversity of farmland bird communities across Europe: effects of biogeography and agricultural intensification

    Guerrero, I.; Morales, M.B.; Onate, J.J.; Aavik, T.; Bengtsson, J.; Berendse, F.; Geiger, F.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract In eight European study sites (in Spain, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Estonia and Sweden), abundance of breeding farmland bird territories was obtained from 500 9 500 m survey plots (30 per area, N = 240) using the mapping method. Two analyses were performed: (I) a Canonical

  7. Plot 5

    Lund, Inger-Lise; Hermansen, Anne-Mette; Ferdinand, Trine

    Danskfaglig vejledning informerer om de tanker, der ligger til grund for Plot 5, og beskriver danskfaget ud fra nyere forskning inden for fagets mange delområder. Kapitelvejledning introducerer bogens tekster, forklarer hensigten med kapitlernes opgaver, giver forslag til undervisningen og brugen...

  8. Plot 4

    Lund, Inger-Lise; Hermansen, Anne-Mette; Ferdinand, Trine

    Danskfaglig vejledning informerer om de tanker, der ligger til grund for Plot 4, og beskriver danskfaget ud fra nyere forskning inden for fagets mange delområder. Kapitelvejledning introducerer bogens tekster, forklarer hensigten med kapitlernes opgaver, giver forslag til undervisningen og brugen...

  9. Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?

    Petri Jylhä; Kalle Rinne; Matti Suominen

    2014-01-01

    Regressing hedge funds’ returns on returns to a long–short contrarian trading strategy, a measure of the returns from providing liquidity, we find that hedge funds typically supply liquidity in the stock market. In the cross-section, strict redemption restrictions and large fund size increase funds’ propensity to supply liquidity. In time series, poor market liquidity and good funding conditions increase funds’ propensity to supply liquidity. Although the hedge funds typically supply liquidit...

  10. The evolution and regulation of hedge funds.

    Crockett, A.

    2007-01-01

    Hedge funds have attracted increased attention in recent years. In part, this is because investment in hedge funds is becoming “mainstream”. A wider range of investors has sought exposure to these investment vehicles, and this has been associated with rapid growth in both the number of funds and the volume of assets under management. In part, too, greater attention has been the result of worries that hedge funds could in some circumstances exert a destabilizing infl uence. With the growth in ...

  11. Short Term Hedging Using Futures Contracts

    Ioana – Diana PAUN

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the effectiveness of risk management portfolio using futures contracts to achieve hedging. The risk can be minimized once measured, and the traditional tool of market risk management is hedging. The objective is to identify the optimum position to minimize the variation in a contract concluded now. Clearly hedging portfolio will reduce not only risk but also profitability. In conclusion hedging aims risk management, no additional gain. Portfolio manager will have the opportunity to carefully consider the relationship between risk and return in order to act according to his profile and targeted results.

  12. A note on imperfect hedging: a method for testing stability of the hedge ratio

    Michal Černý

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Companies producing, processing and consuming commodities in the production process often hedge their commodity expositions using derivative strategies based on different, highly correlated underlying commodities. Once the open position in a commodity is hedged using a derivative position with another underlying commodity, the appropriate hedge ratio must be determined in order the hedge relationship be as effective as possible. However, it is questionable whether the hedge ratio determined at the inception of the risk management strategy remains stable over the whole period for which the hedging strategy exists. Usually it is assumed that in the short run, the relationship (say, correlation between the two commodities remains stable, while in the long run it may vary. We propose a method, based on statistical theory of stability, for on-line detection whether market movements of prices of the commodities involved in the hedge relationship indicate that the hedge ratio may have been subject to a recent change. The change in the hedge ratio decreases the effectiveness of the original hedge relationship and creates a new open position. The method proposed should inform the risk manager that it could be reasonable to adjust the derivative strategy in a way reflecting the market conditions after the change in the hedge ratio.

  13. HedgeHOGS: A Rapid Nuclear Hedge Sizing and Analysis Tool

    Reynolds, Adam F. [United States Military Academy, West Point, NY (United States); Steinfeldt, Bradley Alexander [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Lafleur, Jarret Marshall [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Hawley, Marilyn F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Shannon, Lisa M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-07-01

    The U.S. nuclear stockpile hedge is an inventory of non-deployed nuclear warheads and a force structure capable of deploying those warheads. Current guidance is to retain this hedge to mitigate the risk associated with the technical failure of any single warhead type or adverse geopolitical developments that could require augmentation of the force. The necessary size of the hedge depends on the composition of the nuclear stockpile and assumed constraints. Knowing the theoretical minimum hedge given certain constraints is useful when considering future weapons policy. HedgeHOGS, an Excel-based tool, was developed to enable rapid calculation of the minimum hedge size associated with varying active stockpile composition and hedging strategies.

  14. Quadratic Hedging Methods for Defaultable Claims

    Biagini, Francesca; Cretarola, Alessandra

    2007-01-01

    We apply the local risk-minimization approach to defaultable claims and we compare it with intensity-based evaluation formulas and the mean-variance hedging. We solve analytically the problem of finding respectively the hedging strategy and the associated portfolio for the three methods in the case of a default put option with random recovery at maturity

  15. Complexity Plots

    Thiyagalingam, Jeyarajan

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, we present a novel visualization technique for assisting the observation and analysis of algorithmic complexity. In comparison with conventional line graphs, this new technique is not sensitive to the units of measurement, allowing multivariate data series of different physical qualities (e.g., time, space and energy) to be juxtaposed together conveniently and consistently. It supports multivariate visualization as well as uncertainty visualization. It enables users to focus on algorithm categorization by complexity classes, while reducing visual impact caused by constants and algorithmic components that are insignificant to complexity analysis. It provides an effective means for observing the algorithmic complexity of programs with a mixture of algorithms and black-box software through visualization. Through two case studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of complexity plots in complexity analysis in research, education and application. © 2013 The Author(s) Computer Graphics Forum © 2013 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. 7 CFR 657.5 - Identification of important farmlands.

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Identification of important farmlands. 657.5 Section... Farmlands Inventory § 657.5 Identification of important farmlands. (a) Prime farmlands—(1) General. Prime..., tree nuts, olives, cranberries, fruit, and vegetables. (2) Specific characteristics of unique farmland...

  17. Farmland Tenure Security in China: Influencing Factors of Actual and Perceived Farmland Tenure Security

    Ren, Guangcheng; Zhu, Xueqin; Heerink, Nico; van Ierland, Ekko; Feng, Shuyi

    2017-04-01

    Tenure security plays an important role in farm households' investment, land renting and other decisions. Recent literature distinguishes between actual farmland tenure security (i.e. farm households' actual control of farmland) and perceived farmland tenure security (i.e. farm households' subjective understanding of their farmland tenure situation and expectation regarding government enforcement and equality of the law). However little is known on what factors influence the actual and perceived farmland tenure security in rural China. Theoretically, actual farmland tenure security is related to village self-governance as a major informal governance rule in rural China. Both economic efficiency and equity considerations are likely to play a role in the distribution of land and its tenure security. Household perceptions of farmland tenure security depend not only on the actual farmland tenure security in a village, but may also be affected by households' investment in and ability of changing social rules. Our study examines what factors contribute to differences in actual and perceived farmland tenure security between different villages and farm households in different regions of China. Applying probit models to the data collected from 1,485 households in 124 villages in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning and Chongqing, we find that development of farmland rental market and degree of self-governance of a village have positive impacts, and development of labour market has a negative effect on actual farmland tenure security. Household perceptions of tenure security depend not only on actual farmland tenure security and on households' investment in and ability of changing social rules, but also on risk preferences of households. This finding has interesting policy implications for future land reforms in rural China.

  18. Multi-agent modeling and simulation of farmland use change in the farming-pastoral zone: A case study of Qianjingou Town in Inner Mongolia, China

    Yan, H.

    2015-12-01

    Farmland is the most basic material conditions for guaranteeing rural livelihoods and national food security, and exploring management strategies that take both of the sustainable rural livelihoods and sustainable farmland use into account has vital significance of theory and practice. Farmland is a complex and self-adaptive system that couples human and natural systems together, and natural factors and social factors that are related to its changing process need to be considered when modeling farmland changing process. This paper takes Qianjingou Town in Inner Mongolia farming-pastoral zone as study area. From the perspective of the relationship between households' livelihoods and farmland use, this study builds the process mechanism of farmland use change based on questionnaires data, and constructs multi-agent simulation model of farmland use change with the help of Eclipse and Repast toolbox. Through simulating the relationship between natural factors (with geographical location) and households' behaviors, this paper systematically simulates households' renting and abandoning farmland behaviors, and truly describes dynamic interactions between households' livelihoods and factors related to farmland use change. These factors include natural factors (net primary productivity, road accessibility, slope and relief amplitude) and social factors (households' family structures, economic development and government policies). In the end, this study scientifically predicts farmland use change trend in the future 30 years. The simulation results show that, the number of abandoned and sublet farmland plots has a gradually increasing trend, the number of non-farm households and pure-outwork households has a remarkable increasing trend, and the number of part-farm households and pure-farm households shows a decreasing trend. Households' livelihoods sustainability in the study area is confronted with increasing pressure, and households' nonfarm employment has an increasing

  19. Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation of Farmland Use Change in a Farming–Pastoral Zone: A Case Study of Qianjingou Town in Inner Mongolia, China

    Xuehong Bai

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Farmland is the most basic material condition for guaranteeing rural livelihoods and national food security, and exploring management strategies that take both stable rural livelihoods and sustainable farmland use into account has vital significance in theory and practice. Farmland is a complex and self-adaptive system that couples human and natural systems, and natural and social factors that are related to its changing process need to be considered when modeling farmland changing processes. This paper uses Qianjingou Town in the Inner Mongolian farming–pastoral zone as a study area. From the perspective of the relationship between household livelihood and farmland use, this study establishes the process mechanism of farmland use change based on questionnaire data, and constructs a multi-agent simulation model of farmland use change using the Eclipse and Repast toolbox. Through simulating the relationship between natural factors (including geographical location and household behavior, this paper systematically simulates household farmland abandonment and rent behaviors, and accurately describes the dynamic interactions between household livelihoods and the factors related to farmland use change. These factors include natural factors (net primary productivity, road accessibility, slope and relief amplitude and social factors (household family structures, economic development and government policies. Ultimately, this study scientifically predicts the future farmland use change trend in the next 30 years. The simulation results show that the number of abandoned and sublet farmland plots has a gradually increasing trend, and the number of non-farming households and pure-outworking households has a remarkable increasing trend, whereas the number of part-farming households and pure-farming households has a decreasing trend. Household livelihood sustainability in the study area is confronted with increasing pressure, and household non

  20. Hedge Ratios for short and leveraged ETFs

    Leo Schubert

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs exist for stock-, bond- and commodity markets. In most cases the underlying of an ETF is an index. Fund management today uses the active and passive way to construct a portfolio. ETFs can be used for passive portfolio management. Then ETFs with positive leverage factors are preferred. In the frame of active portfolio also the ETFs with negative leverage factors can be applied for the hedge or cross hedge of a portfolio. These hedging possibilities will be analyzed in this paper. Short ETFs exist with different leverage factors. In Europe, the leverage factors 1 (e.g. ShortDAX ETF and 2 (e.g. DJ STOXX 600 Double Short are offered while in the financial markets of the United States factors from 1 to 4 can be found. To investigate the effect of the different leverage factors and other parameters Monte Carlo Simulation was used. The results show e.g. that higher leverage factors achieve higher profits as well as losses. In the case, that a bearish market is supposed, minimizing the variance of the hedge seem not to be until to get better hedging results, due to a very skewed return distribution of the hedge. The risk measure target-shortfall-probability confirms the use of the standard hedge weightings which depend only on the leverage factor. This characteristic remains, when a portfolio has to be hedged instead of the underlying index of the short ETF. For portfolios which have a low correlation with the index return should not be used high leverage factors for hedging, due to the higher volatility and target-shortfall-probability.

  1. Risk management in Swedish hedge funds

    Fri, Samuel; Nilsson, Joakim

    2011-01-01

    Background: Risk management has always been a complex topic, especially when it comes to hedge funds. Since hedge funds are able to utilize many kinds of financial instruments it is difficult to find a risk management strategy that goes well with them. Not much research regarding the Swedish hedge fund industry and its risk management has been done; hence we find it an interesting topic to focus this thesis on. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to increase the knowledge of how Swedish he...

  2. Providing hedging protection for the transaction

    Richardson, D.W.

    1999-01-01

    This presentation dealt with methods for assessing commodity price risk in an asset transaction; the setting of risk management objectives; building hedging into the financing; and internal reporting and accounting to mitigate trading risks. It also provided some recent examples of successful hedging in gas asset transactions. The objectives of risk management and the nature of hedging and speculation were explored. An approach to price risk management was proposed. The development of price risk management tools, and techniques for managing risks involving interest rates, foreign exchange, and commodities were examined. figs

  3. HEDGE FUND MANAGERIAL INCENTIVES AND PERFORMANCE

    Nor Hadaliza ABD RAHMAN

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the hedge fund industry over the decades has brought an interesting form of performance contract between the portfolio managers and their investors. The contractual relation has given an impact to the performance of the hedge fund industry, which benefited both fund managers and investors. Furthermore, it has created more investors and fund managers to participate in this high risk and high return investment. Currently, many issues on fee structures and performancebased incentives have been discussed. Do these issues affect the performance of the hedge fund in the market? This paper will investigate the issues in Australian market. It will empirically analyze the hedge fund performance in relation to the market performance and whether managerial incentives and discretions associated with better fund performance.

  4. Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors

    Shaun K. Roache; Alexander P. Attie

    2009-01-01

    Long-term investors face a common problem-how to maintain the purchasing power of their assets over time and achieve a level of real returns consistent with their investment objectives. While inflation-linked bonds and derivatives have been developed to hedge the effects of inflation, their limited supply and liquidity lead many investors to continue to rely on the indirect hedging properties of traditional asset classes. In this paper, we assess these properties over different time horizons,...

  5. Further Evidence on Hedge Funds Performance

    Christiansen, Claus Bang; Madsen, Peter Brink; Christensen, Michael

    2003-01-01

    In this analysis we identify dynamic hedge fund strategies quantitatively pursuing a Principal Component Analysis following Fung and Hsieh (1997). We extract five dominant hedge fund strategies each representing similar investment styles and analyse the performance of each strategy by employing...... a multi-factor model comprising both market indices and passive option strategies among the lines of Agerwal and Naik (2000). We find that the majority of five homogenous strategies show superior performance. However, correcting for survivorship bias this superior performance disappears....

  6. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  7. Belief elicitation in experiments: Is there a hedging problem?

    Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Belief-elicitation experiments usually reward accuracy of stated beliefs in addition to payments for other decisions. But this allows risk-averse subjects to hedge with their stated beliefs against adverse outcomes of the other decisions. So can we trust the existing belief-elicitation results...... opportunities are very prominent. If hedging opportunities are transparent, and incentives to hedge are strong, many subjects do spot hedging opportunities and respond to them. The bias can go beyond players actually hedging themselves, because some expect others to hedge and best respond to this....

  8. Main principles of agroecological grouping of Cs 137 polluted farmlands

    Tsybul'ko, N.N.; Misyuchik, A.A.; Shapsheeva, T.P.

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of data of radiological and soil-agrochemical inspection of soils the agroecological grouping of farmlands is conducted . Five agroecological groups of the farmlands are allocated. (authors)

  9. English Language Teaching: Teaching of Hedges

    Charles Ko

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A hedge is a mitigating word or sound used to lessen the impact of an utterance. It can be an adjective, for example, ‘Small potato me is not as strong as you’; or an adverb: ‘I maybe can swim faster than you’, while it can also consist of clauses, that it could be regarded as a form of euphemism which should be taught as a main topic in English class of schools around the world. For instance, in Hong Kong schools, based on my observation while teaching in a number of primary and secondary English courses as a tutor, students report that their school teachers usually emphasize the teaching of all cohesive devices in terms of skills of writing while they neglect to explain the importance of the use of hedges in order to show euphemism. In this study, I would adopt Corpus Linguistics, a division of applied linguistics, as methodology to discover a great deal of hedges employed by so-called native speakers of English, for promoting the idiomatic usage of hedges in writing, nevertheless in speaking, so as to help teachers gain resources and inspiration in teaching to students the appropriate English hedges as a consequence of the author’s hard effort while revealing from the selected corpora of this paper.

  10. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    Cotter, John [Centre for Financial Markets, School of Business, University College Dublin, Blackrock, Co. Dublin (Ireland); Hanly, Jim [School of Accounting and Finance, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

    2010-03-15

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  11. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim

    2010-01-01

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  12. Fundamentals and advanced techniques in derivatives hedging

    Bouchard, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    This book covers the theory of derivatives pricing and hedging as well as techniques used in mathematical finance. The authors use a top-down approach, starting with fundamentals before moving to applications, and present theoretical developments alongside various exercises, providing many examples of practical interest. A large spectrum of concepts and mathematical tools that are usually found in separate monographs are presented here. In addition to the no-arbitrage theory in full generality, this book also explores models and practical hedging and pricing issues. Fundamentals and Advanced Techniques in Derivatives Hedging further introduces advanced methods in probability and analysis, including Malliavin calculus and the theory of viscosity solutions, as well as the recent theory of stochastic targets and its use in risk management, making it the first textbook covering this topic. Graduate students in applied mathematics with an understanding of probability theory and stochastic calculus will find this b...

  13. Hedge Funds As a Alternative Investment Opportunities

    Michał Falkowski

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Hedge fund which became a popular alternative investment is a collective term for different types of investment fund. A common feature of these funds is that they have absolute earnings targets, that is they set targets for earnings irrespective of developments on, for example, the stock exchange. The paper deals with the current problem of the financial crisis and the effect it made worldwide for many institutional and private investors. It discusses the role played by hedge funds in developments on the financial markets, and to what extent they are affected by the effects of the crisis, as a recurring feature of every financial crisis. It also shows a wind range of strategies used by hedge funds to achieve their goal.

  14. Report on "American Option Pricing and Hedging Strategies"

    Zhang, Jinshan

    2007-01-01

    This paper mainly discusses the American option's hedging strategies via binomialmodel and the basic idea of pricing and hedging American option. Although the essential scheme of hedging is almost the same as European option, small differences may arise when simulating the process for American option holder has more rights, spelling that the option can be exercised at anytime before its maturity. Our method is dynamic-hedging method.

  15. Hedging in Popular Scientific Articles on Medicine

    Csongor Alexandra

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study is to investigate the process of rewriting medical research papers for the lay public. The latest findings of medical research often appear in the popular media. It is interesting to see what happens to a scientific text when it is transmitted to a new audience. Hedging is usually interpreted as a characteristic feature of scientific discourse. This study focuses on hedging, which also tends to be applied in popularized articles in the field of medicine.

  16. Do Hedge Funds Manipulate Stock Prices?

    Ben-David, Itzhak; Franzoni, Francesco; Landier, Augustin; Moussawi, Rabih

    2011-01-01

    We find evidence of significant price manipulation at the stock level by hedge funds on critical reporting dates. Stocks in the top quartile by hedge fund holdings exhibit abnormal returns of 30 basis points in the last day of the month and a reversal of 25 basis points in the following day. Using intraday data, we show that a significant part of the return is earned during the last minutes of the last day of the month, at an increasing rate towards the closing bell. This evidence is consiste...

  17. Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model

    Gatarek, Lukasz; Johansen, Søren

    We derive the optimal hedging ratios for a portfolio of assets driven by a Coin- tegrated Vector Autoregressive model (CVAR) with general cointegration rank. Our hedge is optimal in the sense of minimum variance portfolio. We consider a model that allows for the hedges to be cointegrated with the...

  18. Hedging with stock index futures: downside risk versus the variance

    Brouwer, F.; Nat, van der M.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we investigate hedging a stock portfolio with stock index futures.Instead of defining the hedge ratio as the minimum variance hedge ratio, we considerseveral measures of downside risk: the semivariance according to Markowitz [ 19591 andthe various lower partial moments according to

  19. Convertibles and hedge funds as distributors of equity exposure

    Brown, S.; Grundy, B.; Lewis, C.; Verwijmeren, P.

    2012-01-01

    By buying convertibles and shorting the underlying stock, hedge funds distribute equity exposure to well-diversified shareholders. We find that firms with characteristics that make seasoned equity offerings expensive are more likely to issue convertibles to hedge funds. We conclude that hedge funds

  20. Classification of Farmland Landscape Structure in Multiple Scales

    Jiang, P.; Cheng, Q.; Li, M.

    2017-12-01

    Farmland is one of the basic terrestrial resources that support the development and survival of human beings and thus plays a crucial role in the national security of every country. Pattern change is the intuitively spatial representation of the scale and quality variation of farmland. Through the characteristic development of spatial shapes as well as through changes in system structures, functions and so on, farmland landscape patterns may indicate the landscape health level. Currently, it is still difficult to perform positioning analyses of landscape pattern changes that reflect the landscape structure variations of farmland with an index model. Depending on a number of spatial properties such as locations and adjacency relations, distance decay, fringe effect, and on the model of patch-corridor-matrix that is applied, this study defines a type system of farmland landscape structure on the national, provincial, and city levels. According to such a definition, the classification model of farmland landscape-structure type at the pixel scale is developed and validated based on mathematical-morphology concepts and on spatial-analysis methods. Then, the laws that govern farmland landscape-pattern change in multiple scales are analyzed from the perspectives of spatial heterogeneity, spatio-temporal evolution, and function transformation. The result shows that the classification model of farmland landscape-structure type can reflect farmland landscape-pattern change and its effects on farmland production function. Moreover, farmland landscape change in different scales displayed significant disparity in zonality, both within specific regions and in urban-rural areas.

  1. A logical approach to fuzzy truth hedges

    Esteva, F.; Godo, L.; Noguera, Carles

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 232, č. 1 (2013), s. 366-385 ISSN 0020-0255 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Mathematical fuzzy logic * Standard completeness * Truth hedges Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 3.893, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/MTR/noguera-0469148.pdf

  2. Hedge Funds and Risk-Decoupling

    Ringe, Wolf-Georg

    Negative risk-decoupling, otherwise known as empty voting, is a popular strategy amongst hedge funds and other activist investors. In short, it is the attempt to decouple the economic risk from the share’s ownership position, retaining in particular the voting right without risk. This paper uses ...

  3. Bet-hedging applications for conservation

    One of the early tenets of conservation biology is that population viability is enhanced by maintaining multiple populations of a species. The strength of this tenet is justified by principles of bet-hedging. Management strategies that reduce variance in population size will also reduce risk of extinction. Asynchrony in population ...

  4. Performance of hedging strategies in interval models

    Roorda, Berend; Engwerda, Jacob; Schumacher, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    For a proper assessment of risks associated with the trading of derivatives, the performance of hedging strategies should be evaluated not only in the context of the idealized model that has served as the basis of strategy development, but also in the context of other models. In this paper we

  5. Currency Hedging for International Stock Portfolios

    F.A. de Roon (Frans); T.E. Nijman (Theo); B.J.M. Werker

    2000-01-01

    textabstractThis paper tests whether hedging currency risk improves the performance of international stock portfolios. We use a generalized performance measure which allows for investor-dependencies such as different utility functions and the presence of nontraded risks. In addition we show that an

  6. Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability

    Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.

  7. Robust facility location: Hedging against failures

    Hernandez, Ivan; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose; Rainwater, Chase; Pohl, Edward; Medal, Hugh

    2014-01-01

    While few companies would be willing to sacrifice day-to-day operations to hedge against disruptions, designing for robustness can yield solutions that perform well before and after failures have occurred. Through a multi-objective optimization approach this paper provides decision makers the option to trade-off total weighted distance before and after disruptions in the Facility Location Problem. Additionally, this approach allows decision makers to understand the impact on the opening of facilities on total distance and on system robustness (considering the system as the set of located facilities). This approach differs from previous studies in that hedging against failures is done without having to elicit facility failure probabilities concurrently without requiring the allocation of additional hardening/protections resources. The approach is applied to two datasets from the literature

  8. Incentive Contracts and Hedge Fund Management

    Jens Carsten Jackwerth; James E. Hodder

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates dynamically optimal risk-taking by an expected-utility maximizing manager of a hedge fund. We examine the effects of variations on a compensation structure that includes a percentage management fee, a performance incentive for exceeding a specified highwater mark, and managerial ownership of fund shares. In our basic model, there is an exogenous liquidation barrier where the fund is shut down due to poor performance. We also consider extensions where the manager can vo...

  9. Are fund of hedge fund returns asymmetric?

    Lynch, Margaret; Hutson, Elaine; Stevenson, Max

    2004-01-01

    We examine the return distributions of 332 funds of hedge funds and associated indices. Over half of the sample is significantly skewed according to the skewness statistic, and these are split 50/50 positive and negative. However, we argue that the skewness statistic can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the nature of the return distribution, because the test statistic is based on the normal distribution. Using a series of tests that make minimal assumptions about the shape of the ...

  10. Hedging Cash Flows from Commodity Processing

    Dahlgran, Roger A.

    2005-01-01

    Agribusinesses make long-term plant-investment decisions based on discounted cash flow. It is therefore incongruous for an agribusiness firm to use cash flow as a plant-investment criterion and then to completely discard cash flow in favor of batch profits as an operating objective. This paper assumes that cash flow and its stability is important to commodity processors and examines methods for hedging cash flows under continuous processing. Its objectives are (a) to determine how standard he...

  11. Hedging against terrorism: Are US businesses prepared?

    Kahan, Jerome H

    2015-01-01

    Private US companies face risks in connection with financial matters, but are not necessarily prepared to cope with risks that can seriously disrupt or even halt their operations, notably terrorist attacks and natural disasters. Enhancing the resilience of businesses when dealing with terrorism is especially challenging, as these groups or individuals can adapt tactics to exploit the vulnerabilities of companies they wish to target. Business managers need to formulate flexible preparedness plans that reduce risks from large-scale natural disasters as well as terrorist attacks. In doing so, they can take advantage of post-9/11 US government guidance for these endeavours as well as programmes that eliminate risks to private insurance entities so they can issue policies that cover terrorist strikes of high consequences. Just as business executives use hedging strategies in the world of finance, they also need operational hedging strategies as a means of exploiting as well as lowering the risks surrounding future uncertainties. Resources devoted to planning and hedging are investments that can increase the odds of businesses surviving and thriving, even if they experience high-impact terrorist attacks, threats or large-scale natural disasters, making suppliers, customers and stakeholders happy. The purpose of this paper is to give executives the incentive to take steps to do just that.

  12. Hedge Funds and Risk-Decoupling

    Ringe, Georg

    2013-01-01

    The law must remain adaptive and responsive to the constantly changing challenges of our society and our business life. One of the most pressing challenges of the past years is the emergence of alternative investment funds, in particular hedge funds, which masterfully exploit the traditional cate...... to the traditional market expectations of shareholders. Based on the insight developed from these policy perspectives, this article develops regulatory reform proposals, particularly with regard to the EU context.......The law must remain adaptive and responsive to the constantly changing challenges of our society and our business life. One of the most pressing challenges of the past years is the emergence of alternative investment funds, in particular hedge funds, which masterfully exploit the traditional...... theoretical perspectives are used as an analytical framework to examine the vast challenges of risk-decoupling: (1) a classical agency costs approach; (2) an information costs perspective; and (3) a view from corporate finance. This Article argues that shareholders with hedged risk exposure do not correspond...

  13. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  14. Hedge Fund Performance Attribution Under Various Market Conditions

    Stafylas, Dimitrios; Anderson, Keith Philip; Uddin, Muhammad Moshfique

    2018-01-01

    We investigate US hedge funds’ performance. Our proposed model contains exogenous and endogenous break points, based on business cycles and on a regime switching process conditional on different states of the market. During difficult market conditions most hedge fund strategies do not provide significant alphas. At such times hedge funds reduce both the number of their exposures to different asset classes and their portfolio allocations, while some strategies even reverse their exposures. Dir...

  15. Arbitrage Opportunities and their Implications to Derivative Hedging

    Panayides, Stephanos

    2005-01-01

    We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005), 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrage opportunities are present in the market. We restrict ourselves to finding hedging confidence intervals that can be adapted to the amount of arbitrage risk an investor will per...

  16. Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets

    Acharya, Viral V; Lochstoer, Lars; Ramadorai, Tarun

    2009-01-01

    Motivated by the literature on limits-to-arbitrage, we build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers' inventory holdings, and thus spot prices. Consistent with our model, producers' default risk forecasts futures returns, spot pri...

  17. Hedge accounting under IFRS 9: an analysis of reforms

    Jatinder Pal Singh

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Pronouncements of regulatory bodies on ‘hedge accounting’ are aimed at ensuring that impact of price changes of hedging relationships are accounted for concurrently. However, it sometimes happens that certain provisions of these standards result in the reporting of enhanced earnings volatility being attributed to hedging relationships which is not economically justified. It is often perceived to be the case by stakeholders that the provisions of IAS 39 on ‘hedge accounting’ do not appropriately reflect and are not aligned with the risk management strategies of entities that attempt to mitigate risk using various hedging relationships. This occasionally results in a reporting entity adopting either a suboptimal hedging strategy that gives it eligibility to account for it using ‘hedge accounting’ or vice versa. Thus entities may be faced with the tradeoff between the benefits of risk mitigation strategies and the benefits derived from adopting ‘hedge accounting’. This motivated the IASB to initiate action for the complete reformulation of the standard on ‘hedge accounting’. The revised standard was pronounced in November 2013 as IFRS 9. In this article, we attempt to evaluate the upgradations introduced by IFRS 9 over its predecessor, IAS 39, with particular reference to the reporting of risk management strategies of affected entities.

  18. Arbitrage opportunities and their implications to derivative hedging

    Panayides, Stephanos

    2006-02-01

    We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005) 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrage opportunities are present in the market. We restrict ourselves to finding hedging confidence intervals that can be adapted to the amount of arbitrage risk an investor will permit to be exposed to. The resulting hedging bands are independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage opportunities.

  19. Hedging Capabilities of Bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?

    Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo

    2015-01-01

    This paper sets out to explore the hedging capabilities of bitcoin by applying the asymmetric GARCH methodology used in investigation of gold. The results show that bitcoin can clearly be used as a hedge against stocks in the Financial Times Stock Exchange Index. Additionally bitcoin can be used as a hedge against the American dollar in the short-term. Bitcoin thereby possess some of the same hedging abilities as gold and can be included in the variety of tools available to market analysts to...

  20. Urban Sprawl Impact on Farmland Conversion in Suburban Area of Wroclaw, Poland

    Solecka, Iga; Sylla, Marta; Świąder, Małgorzata

    2017-10-01

    The developments in suburban areas are changing the peri-urban landscape, by transforming the agricultural land into discontinuous urban fabric. Tracking these changes requires different approaches. The aim of the research is to identify the spatial development of suburban zone with the use of the spatial information-based approach of estimating the location of suburban plots. The authors introduced parameters describing the building plots for single family housing in the suburban areas on the example of the surrounding municipalities of the city of Wrocław, Poland. Landscape metrics tools were used to delineate the suburban plots not identified by Corine Land Cover 2012. The results were verified with the use of the prices and values register for real estates. The results show that there is an increasing pressure on farmland conversion into suburban areas expressed by the number of transactions and the total areas of sold housing plots. The plots that have been purchased for the single-family housing between 2004 and 2016 constitute about 10 % of all existing plots. About 42 % of suburban properties are designed in the distance not exceeding 3 km from the existing settlements; they are, however, not connected by infrastructure with other build-up areas.

  1. Trends in High Nature Value farmland studies: A systematic review

    Benedetti Yanina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Since the High Nature Value (HNV concept was defined in the early 1990s, several studies on HNV farmland has been increasing over the past 30 years in Europe, highlighting the interest by scientific community of HNV farming systems supporting biodiversity conservation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the trends and main gaps on HNV farmland peer-reviewed publications in order to contribute to the effectiveness of future research in this field. Methods. Searches were conducted using the databases Web of SciencesTM and Scopus in order to identify only peer-reviewed articles on HNV farmland, published prior to July 2017. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were developed a priori. Data as year, country, type of document, subject area, taxa studied and biodiversity metrics assessed were extracted and explored in order to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of the concept, including the main topics addressed in HNV farmland literature. Results. After screening 308 original articles, 90 were selected for this review. HNV farmland studies involved several disciplines, mainly biodiversity and conservation and environmental sciences and ecology. Most peer-reviewed articles focused on HNV farming were conducted in Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal. The main studied taxa were plants and birds. Taxonomic diversity was the biodiversity metric more often used to assess the biodiversity status on HNV farmland areas. A positive correlation was found between HNV farmland area and HNV farmland studies conducted in respective countries. Discussion. The HNV farmland research subject is a relative novel approach, and this systematic review provides a comprehensive overview about the main topics in the HNV farmland peer-reviewed literature contributing to highlight the main gaps and provide some considerations in order to assist the performance of HNV farming systems and conservation policies, addressed to sustain high levels of

  2. Currency hedging with help of derivatives

    Sylvie Riederová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The high volatility combined with unpredictable fluctuations of CZK had shown one more time to the Czech exporting companies the necessity of currency hedging. This article is focused on finding of suitable currency hedging instrument for exporting company, working with the currency pair of CZK/EUR. In the first part, the time series analysis is made for volatility, interest rates and exchange rate. Based on the real market data – gained from Thomson REUTERS and CNB for the time period starting in 2002 – the detailed analysis is made in graphical form. The main goal is to find out the future trends with help of liner regression analysis, based on the historical data. Several graphs are provided with the trend line end estimated interval (min and max for the each variable. The calculated values are clearly marked, to be separated from the real market data. Exchange rate curve shows the market behaviour in the last years and is to be used as most important indicator for the future trends. Interest rates curves are very important for the calculation of the BIPS (basis points, determining the price of the forwards. The difference between landing and deposit rates for the same period of time and different currencies are showing the market estimation of the future development of each currency. Forward price is to be seen as a benchmark for the all other financial instruments. And finally the volatility (quoted as middle is very important part in the pricing of currency options.The second part is closely connected with the first one. Based on the results of provided analyses, it recommends a suitable hedging product for the next period of time. All of the analyses are taken as an input in different ways. The volatility is important for the decision of selling or purchasing the specific part of currency option. The exchange rate outlook together with the interest rates is the indicator of the future development of the currency pair and is playing

  3. Difference and ratio plots

    Svendsen, Anders Jørgen; Holmskov, U; Bro, Peter

    1995-01-01

    and systemic lupus erythematosus from another previously published study (Macanovic, M. and Lachmann, P.J. (1979) Clin. Exp. Immunol. 38, 274) are also represented using ratio plots. Our observations indicate that analysis by regression analysis may often be misleading....... hitherto unnoted differences between controls and patients with either rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus. For this we use simple, but unconventional, graphic representations of the data, based on difference plots and ratio plots. Differences between patients with Burkitt's lymphoma...

  4. 26 CFR 1.1221-2 - Hedging transactions.

    2010-04-01

    ... serves a hedging function, or that the transaction serves a similar function or purpose. (4) Coordination... business units. A separate set of books and records is maintained with respect to the activities, assets... under the marking member's method of accounting. (iii) Treatment of intercompany hedging transactions...

  5. The evolving beta-liquidity relationship of hedge funds

    Siegmann, Arjen; Stefanova, Denitsa

    2017-01-01

    Hedge funds are known to have liquidity-timing capability, but this might be conditional on aggregate market conditions. To test this, we analyze changes in the relation between hedge funds' stock market exposure and aggregate stock market liquidity. Employing an optimal changepoint approach, we

  6. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

  7. Using Derivatives to Hedge Interest Rate Risk: A Student Exercise

    Donaldson, Jeff; Flagg, Donald

    2014-01-01

    In a world of fluctuating asset prices, many firms find the need to hedge in order to avoid or reduce losses. From a gold miner selling gold derivatives to airlines buying oil futures to protect against rising fuel costs, hedging is common practice across many different industries. In this paper, we provide students with a simplified example of a…

  8. Investable hedge fund indices: how expensive is liquidity ?

    D. Maspero

    2006-01-01

    The paper reviews the performance of investable hedge fund indices compared to traditional noninvestable hedge fund indices. While investable indices are characterized by a higher level of liquidity they seem to lag the performance on a risk-adjusted basis of noninvestable indices

  9. 26 CFR 1.446-4 - Hedging transactions.

    2010-04-01

    ... general. The method of accounting used for hedges of aggregate risk must comply with the matching...) INCOME TAXES Methods of Accounting § 1.446-4 Hedging transactions. (a) In general. Except as provided in... disbursements method of accounting is used or in which § 1.471-6 is used for inventory valuations if, for all...

  10. Probability Weighting and Loss Aversion in Futures Hedging

    Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2008-01-01

    We analyze how the introduction of probability weighting and loss aversion in a futures hedging model affects decision making. Analytical findings indicate that probability weighting alone always affects optimal hedge ratios, while loss and risk aversion only have an impact when probability

  11. A risk reserve model for hedging in incomplete markets

    Minina, V.; Vellekoop, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to the pricing and hedging problem for contingent claims in incomplete markets. We assume that traders wish to maximize the expected final payoff of the hedging portfolio and the claims, and we avoid the use of utility functions. Instead, we model how traders are

  12. Plasma physics plotting package

    Hyman, D.H.

    1981-02-01

    We describe a package of plotting routines that do up to six two- or three-dimensional plots on a frame with minimal loss of resolution. The package now runs on a PDP-10 with PLOT-10 TCS primitives and on a Control Data Corporation-7600 and a Cray-1 with TV80LIB primitives on the National Magnetic Fusion Energy Computer Center network. The package is portable to other graphics systems because only the primitive plot calls are used from the underlying system's graphics package

  13. Hedging Medical Spending Growth: An Adaptive Expectations Approach.

    Lieberthal, Robert D

    2016-08-01

    Long-term health insurance provides consumers with protection against persistent, negative health shocks. While the stochastic rise in medical spending growth may make some health risks harder to insure, financial assets could act as a hedge for medical spending growth risk. The purpose of this research was to determine whether such hedges exist. The results of this study were two-fold. First, the asset classes with the strongest statistical evidence as hedges were bonds, not stocks. Second, any strategy to hedge medical spending growth involved shorting assets i.e. betting against the bond or stock market. Health insurers writing long-term contracts should combine the use of hedges in the bond market with of portfolio diversification, and may benefit from health policies to moderate the uncertainty of medical spending growth.

  14. Spatially varying determinants of farmland conversion across Qiantang watershed, China.

    Su, Shiliang; Xiao, Rui

    2013-10-01

    This paper employed geographically weighted regression (GWR) to characterize the determinants of farmland conversion at administrative scale between 1994 and 2003 across Qiantang watershed, China. Six determinants were identified: total area of forest, distance to highway, distance to second road, distance to river, population, and gross domestic product. Relationships between these identified determinants and farmland conversion showed great spatial non-stationarity, since their character, nature, and strength varied significantly across space. Typically, for cities whose development was heavily relied on road infrastructure development, the impacts of "distance to second road" and "distance to river" was negative. However, in mountainous areas, the restriction of terrain factors led to positive impacts from these two variables. For areas undergoing rapid socio-economic development, farmland conversion was accelerated by population growth and economic development. However, for more urbanized regions, a slow-down rate of farmland conversion would be expected. Our study highlighted that the problem of spatial non-stationarity should be addressed when qualifying the determinants of farmland conversion. Linking our results within the context of farmland protection, we argue that implementing local-specific land management practices, instead of the current one-size-fits-all framework, is the key for the success of farmland protection in China.

  15. Nonlinear Dot Plots.

    Rodrigues, Nils; Weiskopf, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Conventional dot plots use a constant dot size and are typically applied to show the frequency distribution of small data sets. Unfortunately, they are not designed for a high dynamic range of frequencies. We address this problem by introducing nonlinear dot plots. Adopting the idea of nonlinear scaling from logarithmic bar charts, our plots allow for dots of varying size so that columns with a large number of samples are reduced in height. For the construction of these diagrams, we introduce an efficient two-way sweep algorithm that leads to a dense and symmetrical layout. We compensate aliasing artifacts at high dot densities by a specifically designed low-pass filtering method. Examples of nonlinear dot plots are compared to conventional dot plots as well as linear and logarithmic histograms. Finally, we include feedback from an expert review.

  16. Active farmsteads are year-round strongholds for farmland birds

    Šálek, Martin; Bažant, M.; Żmihorski, M.

    (2018) ISSN 0021-8901 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : biodiversity * birds * conservation * farmland * farmsteads * hotspots * landscape structure * red-listed species * species richness Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 5.301, year: 2016

  17. socio-eceonomic determinations of farmland management practice ...

    Jannifer

    *Department of Agricultural Economics, Management and Extension. Ebonyi State ... were to ascertain Farmland Management Practices of the farmers and to determine the relationship ..... Woman participation in agric-business in. Oboro area ...

  18. Hedge math: Theoretical limits on minimum stockpile size across nuclear hedging strategies

    Lafleur, Jarret Marshall [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Roesler, Alexander W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-01

    In June 2013, the Department of Defense published a congressionally mandated, unclassified update on the U.S. Nuclear Employment Strategy. Among the many updates in this document are three key ground rules for guiding the sizing of the non-deployed U.S. nuclear stockpile. Furthermore, these ground rules form an important and objective set of criteria against which potential future stockpile hedging strategies can be evaluated.

  19. Distributed plot-making

    Jensen, Lotte Groth; Bossen, Claus

    2016-01-01

    different socio-technical systems (paper-based and electronic patient records). Drawing on the theory of distributed cognition and narrative theory, primarily inspired by the work done within health care by Cheryl Mattingly, we propose that the creation of overview may be conceptualised as ‘distributed plot......-making’. Distributed cognition focuses on the role of artefacts, humans and their interaction in information processing, while narrative theory focuses on how humans create narratives through the plot construction. Hence, the concept of distributed plot-making highlights the distribution of information processing...

  20. Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity

    Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S.

    2010-01-01

    Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm...

  1. Humanizing Finance by Hedging Property Values

    Jaume Roig Hernando

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The recent financial crisis triggered the greatest recession since the 1930s and had a devastating impact on households’ wealth and on their capacity to reduce their indebtedness. In the aftermath, it became clear that there is significant room for improvement in property risk management. While there has been innovation in the management of corporate finance risk, real estate has lagged behind. Now is the time to expand the range of tools available for hedging households’ risks and, thus, to advance the democratization of finance. Property equity represents the major asset in households’ portfolios in developed and undeveloped countries. The present paper analyzes a set of potential innovations in real estate risk management, such as price level-adjusted mortgages, property derivatives, and home equity value insurance. Financial institutions, households, and governments should work together to improve the performance of the financial instruments available and, thus, to help mitigate the worst impacts of economic cycles.

  2. Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power

    Mari, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach

  3. ACTION LEVERS FOR A SUSTAINABLE FARMLAND MANAGEMENT IN NIGER

    Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to contribute to the understanding of factors influencing the sustainable farmland management in Niger. Specifically, it examines the determinants of adoption of sustainable land management practices including measures to combat erosion, and the use of manure, residues and fertilizer with a view to support the formulation of efficient land use policies based on evidences given fact that the impact of factors influencing farmland management appears to be specific to each context. The study is based on data from the National Survey of Household Living Conditions and Agriculture of 2011 (ECVMA-2011 analyzed within the framework of multivariate Probit model. The results show that there are unobservable interdependences between the decisions on farmland management practices. Furthermore, several types of factors related to access to physical, human, financial and biophysical capitals as well as infrastructure and services seem to play an important role. In addition, it appears that more security is needed in land tenure for a sustainable farmland management while farmland defragmentation can act negatively on sustainable farmland management.

  4. BliP PLOT : PLOT DISTRIBUSI DATA BERDIMENSI - SATU

    Anisa Anisa; Indwiati Indwiati

    2014-01-01

    Blip Plot, adalah salah satu plot yang sibuat untuk menampilkan data berdimensi-satu. Pada dasarnya plot ini terdiri dari kotak, garis, dan titik. Sebagaimana plot distribusi berdimensi-satu yang lain, BliP Plot menampilkan nilai-nilai data individu dalam titik-titik atau garis-garis, dan informasi berkelompok dalam garis atau kotak. Kelebihannya, Blip Plot menampilkan banyak keistimewaan baru seperti plot variable-widht dan beberapa pilihan pola titik. Keuntungan utama dari Blip ...

  5. A Portfolio Approach to Risk Reduction in Discretely Rebalanced Option Hedges

    Antonio S. Mello; Henrik J. Neuhaus

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyses the accumulated hedging errors generated by discretely rebalanced option hedges. We show that simple generalizations of the prior research can underestimate the variance of the accumulated hedging errors and that even with daily rebalancing, these accumulated hedging errors can introduce substantial risk in arbitrage strategies suggested by the Black-Scholes option pricing model. We also show that the correlation between the accumulated hedging errors for different options...

  6. Density Distribution Sunflower Plots

    William D. Dupont

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Density distribution sunflower plots are used to display high-density bivariate data. They are useful for data where a conventional scatter plot is difficult to read due to overstriking of the plot symbol. The x-y plane is subdivided into a lattice of regular hexagonal bins of width w specified by the user. The user also specifies the values of l, d, and k that affect the plot as follows. Individual observations are plotted when there are less than l observations per bin as in a conventional scatter plot. Each bin with from l to d observations contains a light sunflower. Other bins contain a dark sunflower. In a light sunflower each petal represents one observation. In a dark sunflower, each petal represents k observations. (A dark sunflower with p petals represents between /2-pk k and /2+pk k observations. The user can control the sizes and colors of the sunflowers. By selecting appropriate colors and sizes for the light and dark sunflowers, plots can be obtained that give both the overall sense of the data density distribution as well as the number of data points in any given region. The use of this graphic is illustrated with data from the Framingham Heart Study. A documented Stata program, called sunflower, is available to draw these graphs. It can be downloaded from the Statistical Software Components archive at http://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s430201.html . (Journal of Statistical Software 2003; 8 (3: 1-5. Posted at http://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php?vol=8 .

  7. Hedging local volume risk using forward markets: Nordic case

    Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal; Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Tegner, Martin

    2017-01-01

    With focus on the Nordic electricity market, this paper develops hedging strategies for an electricity distributor who manages price and volume risk from fixed price agreements on stochastic electricity load. Whereas the distributor trades in the spot market at area prices, the financial contracts......, and we suggest various strategies for hedging in the presence of local volume risk. We benchmark against a strategy that ignores correlation and hedges at expected load, as is common practice in the industry. Using data from 2013 and 2014 for two Danish bidding areas, we show that our best hedging...... strategy reduces gross loss by 5.8% and 13.6% and increases gross profit by 3.8% and 9.5%, respectively. Although this is partly due to the inclusion of correlation, we show that performance improvement is mainly driven by the choice of risk measure....

  8. Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

    Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K.; Horowitz, I.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium

  9. Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

    Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K. [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 353 Sacramento Street, Suite 1700, 94111 San Francisco, CA (United States); Horowitz, I. [Decision and Information Sciences, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, 32611 Gainesville, FL (United States)

    2001-01-01

    We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium.

  10. Corporate hedging under a resource rent tax regime

    Frestad, Dennis

    2010-01-01

    In addition to the ordinary corporate income tax, special purpose taxes are sometimes levied to extract abnormal profits arising from the use of natural resources. Such dual tax regimes exist in Norway for oil and hydropower, where the corresponding special purpose tax bases are unaffected by any derivatives payments. Dual tax firms with hedging programs therefore face the risk of potentially large discrepancies between the tax bases for corporate income tax and special purpose tax. I investigate how this tax base asymmetry influences the extent of hedging of value-maximizing firms facing hedgeable as well as unhedgeable risk. Dual tax firms facing deadweight costs in low-profit events generally demand less hedging than ordinary firms, but otherwise respond similarly to characteristics of the underlying risk exposures. The special purpose tax does not influence firms' hedge portfolios in the absence of deadweight cost. (author)

  11. Hedging endowment assurance products under interest rate and mortality risk

    Chen, A.; Mahayni, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes how model misspecification associated with both interest rate and mortality risk influences hedging decisions of insurance companies. For this purpose, diverse risk management strategies which are riskminimizing when model risk is ignored come into consideration. The

  12. Corporate hedging under a resource rent tax regime

    Frestad, Dennis [Department of Economics and Business Administration, University of Agder, Serviceboks 422, 4604 Kristiansand (Norway)

    2010-03-15

    In addition to the ordinary corporate income tax, special purpose taxes are sometimes levied to extract abnormal profits arising from the use of natural resources. Such dual tax regimes exist in Norway for oil and hydropower, where the corresponding special purpose tax bases are unaffected by any derivatives payments. Dual tax firms with hedging programs therefore face the risk of potentially large discrepancies between the tax bases for corporate income tax and special purpose tax. I investigate how this tax base asymmetry influences the extent of hedging of value-maximizing firms facing hedgeable as well as unhedgeable risk. Dual tax firms facing deadweight costs in low-profit events generally demand less hedging than ordinary firms, but otherwise respond similarly to characteristics of the underlying risk exposures. The special purpose tax does not influence firms' hedge portfolios in the absence of deadweight cost. (author)

  13. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  14. NPLOT - NASTRAN PLOT

    Mcentire, K.

    1994-01-01

    NPLOT is an interactive computer graphics program for plotting undeformed and deformed NASTRAN finite element models (FEMs). Although there are many commercial codes already available for plotting FEMs, these have limited use due to their cost, speed, and lack of features to view BAR elements. NPLOT was specifically developed to overcome these limitations. On a vector type graphics device the two best ways to show depth are by hidden line plotting or haloed line plotting. A hidden line algorithm generates views of models with all hidden lines removed, and a haloed line algorithm displays views with aft lines broken in order to show depth while keeping the entire model visible. A haloed line algorithm is especially useful for plotting models composed of many line elements and few surface elements. The most important feature of NPLOT is its ability to create both hidden line and haloed line views accurately and much more quickly than with any other existing hidden or haloed line algorithms. NPLOT is also capable of plotting a normal wire frame view to display all lines of a model. NPLOT is able to aid in viewing all elements, but it has special features not generally available for plotting BAR elements. These features include plotting of TRUE LENGTH and NORMALIZED offset vectors and orientation vectors. Standard display operations such as rotation and perspective are possible, but different view planes such as X-Y, Y-Z, and X-Z may also be selected. Another display option is the Z-axis cut which allows a portion of the fore part of the model to be cut away to reveal details of the inside of the model. A zoom function is available to terminals with a locator (graphics cursor, joystick, etc.). The user interface of NPLOT is designed to make the program quick and easy to use. A combination of menus and commands with help menus for detailed information about each command allows experienced users greater speed and efficiency. Once a plot is on the screen the interface

  15. How fair-value accounting can influence firm hedging

    Beisland, Leif Atle; Frestad, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Published version of an article in the journal: Review of Derivatives Research. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11147-012-9084-y The potential influence of accounting regulations on hedging strategies and the use of financial derivatives is a research topic that has attracted little attention in both the finance and the accounting literature. However, recent surveys suggest that company hedging can be substantially influenced by the accounting for financial...

  16. Are "Market Neutral" Hedge Funds Really Market Neutral?

    Andrew J. Patton

    2009-01-01

    Using a variety of different definitions of "neutrality," this study presents significant evidence against the neutrality to market risk of hedge funds in a range of style categories. I generalize standard definitions of "market neutrality," and propose five different neutrality concepts. I suggest statistical tests for each neutrality concept, and apply these tests to a database of monthly returns on 1423 hedge funds from five style categories. For the "market neutral" style, approximately o...

  17. Crystallization: the hidden dimension of Hedge funds' fee structure

    Elaut, Gert; Frömmel, Michael; Sjödin, John

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the implications of variations in the frequency with which hedge fund managers update their high-water mark on fees paid by investors. We first document the crystallization frequencies used by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and then perform simulations and a bootstrap analysis. We find a statistically and economically significant effect of the crystallization frequency on the total fee load. Hedge funds' total fee load increases significantly as the crystallization frequency...

  18. Highwaymen or heroes: should hedge funds be regulated?

    Jon Danielsson; Ashley Taylor; Jean-Pierre Zigrand

    2004-01-01

    The exponential growth of hedge funds, their role in financial crises in the 1990s, and examples of fraudulent behaviour have precipitated a heated debate over their regulatory status. The existing approaches of greater disclosure and activity restrictions appear too blunt to be effective and may stifle the benefits hedge funds can bring to the financial system. But, even the remote possibility of a systemic crisis weighs against no regulation. If reform is delayed until after a crisis it is ...

  19. Hedging Yield with Weather Derivatives: A Role for Options

    Manfredo, Mark R.; Richards, Timothy J.

    2005-01-01

    While there are few risk management alternatives available to specialty crop growers, weather derivatives provide an important advancement. As with the use of any derivatives contract, the behavior of the basis will ultimately determine the net-hedged outcome. However, when using weather derivatives to hedge yield risks for specialty crops, growers face a unique form of basis risk because weather (temperature) and yield are nonlinearly related. Using the forecast encompassing principle, this ...

  20. Price Uncertainty and Optimal Hedging in the Agricultural Market

    Nicolae ISTUDOR

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The increased volatility of the agricultural prices has detrimental effects on the economic welfare and raises concerns regarding poverty and malnutrition at a global level. Financial risk management can be an efficient solution for limiting the effects of international agricultural price volatility. The paper analyzes the behavior of the U.S. wheat and corn prices, emphasizing their highly volatile and unpredictable nature. Given the existence of the basis risk, the estimation of the optimal hedge ratio is needed in order to provide an efficient hedging strategy against price risks. The role of public authorities in this context can consist in promoting education in the fields of hedging and understanding the agricultural price volatility risk. We estimate static and time varying optimal hedge ratios for wheat and corn through several methods. Based on the out of sample hedging effectiveness given by the variance reduction, the methods are compared and the results show that the time varying hedge ratios estimated through rolling window OLS and GARCH methods outperform the static counterparts.

  1. Wavelet multiscale analysis for Hedge Funds: Scaling and strategies

    Conlon, T.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.

    2008-09-01

    The wide acceptance of Hedge Funds by Institutional Investors and Pension Funds has led to an explosive growth in assets under management. These investors are drawn to Hedge Funds due to the seemingly low correlation with traditional investments and the attractive returns. The correlations and market risk (the Beta in the Capital Asset Pricing Model) of Hedge Funds are generally calculated using monthly returns data, which may produce misleading results as Hedge Funds often hold illiquid exchange-traded securities or difficult to price over-the-counter securities. In this paper, the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) is applied to measure the scaling properties of Hedge Fund correlation and market risk with respect to the S&P 500. It is found that the level of correlation and market risk varies greatly according to the strategy studied and the time scale examined. Finally, the effects of scaling properties on the risk profile of a portfolio made up of Hedge Funds is studied using correlation matrices calculated over different time horizons.

  2. Thickening the Plot.

    Rose, Brian

    1979-01-01

    Examines the content of daytime serial dramas to determine how the narrative structure promotes a sense of involvement in viewers. Competing plot lines, the lack of a concrete sense of resolution, the pattern of episodes, and the audience's awareness of information kept secret from characters all contribute to audience involvement. (JMF)

  3. Plot Description (PD)

    Robert E. Keane

    2006-01-01

    The Plot Description (PD) form is used to describe general characteristics of the FIREMON macroplot to provide ecological context for data analyses. The PD data characterize the topographical setting, geographic reference point, general plant composition and cover, ground cover, fuels, and soils information. This method provides the general ecological data that can be...

  4. The Shorth Plot

    Einmahl, J.H.J.; Gantner, M.; Sawitzki, G.

    2008-01-01

    The shorth plot is a tool to investigate probability mass concentration. It is a graphical representation of the length of the shorth, the shortest interval covering a certain fraction of the distribution, localized by forcing the intervals considered to contain a given point x. It is easy to

  5. Air Data - Tile Plot

    This tool plots daily AQI values for a specific location and time period. Each square or “tile” represents one day of the year and is color-coded based on the AQI level for that day. The legend tallies the number of days in each AQI category.

  6. Multiple plots in R

    Edwards, Stefan McKinnon

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter I will investigate how to combine multiple plots into a single. The scenario is a dataset of a series of measurements, on three samples in three situations. There are many ways we can display this, e.g. 3d graphs or faceting. 3d graphs are not good for displaying static data so we...

  7. Effect of Continuous Application of Commercial Organic Manure on Farmland Quality and Vegetable Yield

    YANG Wen-ye

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Field plot trials were carried out with cabbage, brassica chinensis and corn involving 3 different fertilization schemes including non-fertilizer, chemical fertilizer, chemical fertilizer with organic manure to investigate the effects of the fertilization schemes on farmland quality as well as vegetable yield. The results showed that the fertilization scheme of organic manure caused accumulation of arsenic, lead and chromium, and the accumulation increased with organic manure amount;pH of alkaline soil was decreased by organic manure;the chemical fertilizer with organic manure significantly increased the content of soil organic matter, available nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium, as well as the yield of cabbage, brassica chinensis and corn, which indicated the increasing of soil fertility and vegetable field were based on fertilizer inputs.

  8. Hedging strategies for petroleum companies; Estrategias de hedging para empresas de petroleo

    Cohen, Joaquim Dib [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The prices of crude oil and products in the international market are becoming more and more volatile putting in risk the investment plans of the Oil Companies, their commercial revenues and even their survival. From 1983, with the launch of the WTI crude contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the market for derivatives had been growing at very high rate, letting the Companies to use it in order to protect their positions (hedging) and minimizing their business exposure to price risk. The Over the Counter (OTC) market, leaded by Financial Institutions, together with the exchange, are bringing a sort of different strategies to allow producers to protect their portfolios against an adverse move of the market, traders and refiners can, also, fix their margins and guarantee their profitability and, finally, end users are entitle to freeze their feedstock and keep their market competitiveness. Thus, producers, refiners, traders and end users of petroleum and products, have more and more take advantage of the use of derivatives to make their business foreseeable and profitable choosing the risk level they want to take by using a combination of market derivative hedging strategies as shown in this paper. (author)

  9. Plot til lyst

    Sandvik, Kjetil

    Den velfungerende krimi faciliterer denne dobbelte plotlæsning ved at muliggøre en særlig form for legende og udforskende interaktion mellem læser og plot: Ved at lægge spor ud og holde tolkningsmuligheder og løsningsmuligheder åbne får vi mulighed for at påtage os og udføre opklaringsarbejdet side......, der inviterer os med ind i selve handlingens rum og forløb og giver os forskellige handlingsmuligheder i forhold til disse. I bogen omtales denne særlige form for plot for forlystelsesplot med henvisning til forlystelsesparken og den særlige form for interaktiv fortælleform, som vi finder der: en...

  10. Delta-gamma-theta Hedging of Crude Oil Asian Options

    Juraj Hruška

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Since Black-Scholes formula was derived, many methods have been suggested for vanilla as well as exotic options pricing. More of investing and hedging strategies have been developed based on these pricing models. Goal of this paper is to derive delta-gamma-theta hedging strategy for Asian options and compere its efficiency with gamma-delta-theta hedging combined with predictive model. Fixed strike Asian options are type of exotic options, whose special feature is that payoff is calculated from the difference of average market price and strike price for call options and vice versa for the put options. Methods of stochastic analysis are used to determine deltas, gammas and thetas of Asian options. Asian options are cheaper than vanilla options and therefore they are more suitable for precise portfolio creation. On the other hand their deltas are also smaller as well as profits. That means that they are also less risky and more suitable for hedging. Results, conducted on chosen commodity, confirm better feasibility of Asian options compering with vanilla options in sense of gamma hedging.

  11. The Half-Half Plot

    Einmahl, J.H.J.; Gantner, M.

    2009-01-01

    The Half-Half (HH) plot is a new graphical method to investigate qualitatively the shape of a regression curve. The empirical HH-plot counts observations in the lower and upper quarter of a strip that moves horizontally over the scatter plot. The plot displays jumps clearly and reveals further

  12. Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets

    Chang, Chiao-Yi; Lai, Jing-Yi; Chuang, I-Yuan

    2010-01-01

    This article undertakes eight hedging models (Regression, MD-GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, CCC-GARCH, ECM-MD, ECM-BEKK, ECM-CCC, and state space models) to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets. Different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern (termed 'bull markets') than in a decreasing pattern (termed 'bear markets') for crude oil and gasoline futures. That is, findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature. Out-of-sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts, implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly. (author)

  13. Modern stage and the directions of developing the accounting system for hedging corporate derivatives

    Ковтун, Ірина Юріївна

    2015-01-01

    The peculiarities of the accounting for hedging corporate derivatives oriented to the capital maintenance through system risk management have been disclosed. The suggestions on the accounting for hedging in the modern legal environment have been made

  14. Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets

    Chang, Chiao-Yi [Department of Money and Banking, National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, No. 2, Jhuoyue Rd., Nanzih, Kaohsiung City, 811 (China); Lai, Jing-Yi; Chuang, I-Yuan [Department of Finance, National Chung-Cheng University, No. 168, University Rd., Ming-Hsiung, Chia-Yi 62102. (China)

    2010-03-15

    This article undertakes eight hedging models (Regression, MD-GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, CCC-GARCH, ECM-MD, ECM-BEKK, ECM-CCC, and state space models) to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets. Different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern (termed 'bull markets') than in a decreasing pattern (termed 'bear markets') for crude oil and gasoline futures. That is, findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature. Out-of-sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts, implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly. (author)

  15. Pricing and Hedging of Derivatives in Contagious Markets

    Kokholm, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    It is well documented that stock markets are contagious. A negative shock to one market increases the probability of adverse shocks to other markets. We model this contagion effect by including mutually exciting jump processes in the dynamics of the indexes' log-returns. On top of this we add...... a stochastic volatility component to the dynamics. It is important to take the contagion effect into account if derivatives written on a basket of assets are to be priced or hedged. Due to the affine model specification the joint characteristic function of the log-returns is known analytically, and for two......-asset derivatives prices and show how for certain derivatives the impact is heavy. Moreover, we derive hedge ratios for European put and call options and perform a numerical experiment, which illustrates the impact of contagious jumps on option prices and hedge ratios. Mutually exciting processes have been analyzed...

  16. Gas Storage Valuation and Hedging: A Quantification of Model Risk

    Patrick Hénaff

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The contributions of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, we propose a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and spot price, and accounts for the main stylized facts of the US natural gas market such as seasonality and the presence of price spikes in the spot market. Secondly, we evaluate the associated model risk, and show not only that the valuation is strongly dependent upon the dynamics of the spot price, but more importantly that the hedging strategy commonly used in the industry leaves the storage operator with significant residual price risk.

  17. Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change

    Arshad, Muhammad; Kächele, Harald; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Abbas, Azhar; Mehmood, Yasir; Müller, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated

  18. Helping Farmers Access Farmland: New Jersey's New Land Link Website

    Schilling, Brian J.; Marxen, Lucas J.; Everett, Jeffrey C.; Miller, Camille L.; Kimmel, David A.; Cook, Justine C.

    2015-01-01

    Access to land is a common obstacle for beginning farmers and established farmers seeking to expand their operations. Particularly in urban-influenced areas, leasing farmland is often more financially feasible than fee ownership. Locating available land or the right leasing situation, however, can be difficult. NJ Land Link (http://njlandlink.org)…

  19. Edges within farmland: Management implications of taxonspecific species richness correlates

    Šálek, Martin; Kučera, T.; Zimmermann, Kamil; Bartůšková, I.; Plátek, Michal; Grill, S.; Konvička, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 16, č. 8 (2015), s. 714-725 ISSN 1439-1791 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP505/10/2167 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Forest-farmland edges * Biodiversity conservation * Carabids * Butterflies * Birds * Small mammals * Floristic composition * Agricultural landscape Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.836, year: 2015

  20. Governing farmland conversion: Comparing China with the Netherlands and Germany

    Tan, R.; Beckmann, V.; Berg, van den L.M.; Qu Futian, F.

    2009-01-01

    Farmland conversion has become an increasing concern in China and other parts of the world, including Europe and the USA. Be it for environmental or food security reasons, questions arise concerning how urbanization should be governed, i.e. what rules and regulations could enhance the efficiency and

  1. Risk Management Framework for Hedge Funds: Role of Funding and Redemption Options on Leverage

    Dai, John; Sundaresan, Suresh

    2009-01-01

    We develop a model of hedge fund returns, which reflect the contractual relationships between a hedge fund, its investors and its prime brokers. These relationships are modelled as short option positions held by the hedge fund, wherein the “funding option” reflects the short option position with prime brokers and the “redemption option” reflects the short option position with the investors. Given an alpha producing human capital, the hedge fund’s ability to deploy leverage to magnify its alph...

  2. Differences between urban and rural hedges in England revealed by a citizen science project.

    Gosling, Laura; Sparks, Tim H; Araya, Yoseph; Harvey, Martin; Ansine, Janice

    2016-07-22

    Hedges are both ecologically and culturally important and are a distinctive feature of the British landscape. However the overall length of hedges across Great Britain is decreasing. Current challenges in studying hedges relate to the dominance of research on rural, as opposed to urban, hedges, and their variability and geographical breadth. To help address these challenges and to educate the public on the importance of hedge habitats for wildlife, in 2010 the Open Air Laboratories (OPAL) programme coordinated a hedge-focused citizen science survey. Results from 2891 surveys were analysed. Woody plant species differed significantly between urban and rural areas. Beech, Holly, Ivy, Laurel, Privet and Yew were more commonly recorded in urban hedges whereas Blackthorn, Bramble, Dog Rose, Elder and Hawthorn were recorded more often in rural hedges. Urban and rural differences were shown for some groups of invertebrates. Ants, earwigs and shieldbugs were recorded more frequently in urban hedges whereas blowflies, caterpillars, harvestmen, other beetles, spiders and weevils were recorded more frequently in rural hedges. Spiders were the most frequently recorded invertebrate across all surveys. The presence of hard surfaces adjacent to the hedge was influential on hedge structure, number and diversity of plant species, amount of food available for wildlife and invertebrate number and diversity. In urban hedges with one adjacent hard surface, the food available for wildlife was significantly reduced and in rural hedges, one adjacent hard surface affected the diversity of invertebrates. This research highlights that urban hedges may be important habitats for wildlife and that hard surfaces may have an impact on both the number and diversity of plant species and the number and diversity of invertebrates. This study demonstrates that citizen science programmes that focus on hedge surveillance can work and have the added benefit of educating the public on the importance of

  3. Optimization problem and mean variance hedging on defaultable claims

    Goutte, Stephane; Ngoupeyou, Armand

    2012-01-01

    We study the pricing and the hedging of claim {\\psi} which depends on the default times of two firms A and B. In fact, we assume that, in the market, we can not buy or sell any defaultable bond of the firm B but we can only trade defaultable bond of the firm A. Our aim is then to find the best price and hedging of {\\psi} using only bond of the firm A. Hence, we solve this problem in two cases: firstly in a Markov framework using indifference price and solving a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellm...

  4. It Only Takes a Few Moments to Hedge

    Barletta, Andrea; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo; Pedersen, David Sloth

    Traders hedge the risks carried by options and other securities using the so-called Greeks, with the delta and the vega being the most prominent. In this paper, we propose a novel non-structural method for hedging European options, relying on two model-independent results: First, under suitable...... in variance swap contracts or, indirectly, through an ATM call option. While both strategies ensure effective immunization in periods of market turmoil, taking direct exposure on volatility might not be optimal during extended periods of subdued market volatility. We argue that this result is related...

  5. PREDATORY PHYTOSEIID MITES (Acari:Phytoseiidae) AS BIOINDICATORS OF STRESS IMPACT ON A FARMLAND AND BUTRESSES OF THE FARMLAND REVIVAL

    Zacharda, Miloslav

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 1 (2001), s. 47-56 ISSN 1335-342X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6087904 Keywords : farmland * stress * revival Subject RIV: GF - Plant Pathology, Vermin, Weed, Plant Protection Impact factor: 0.192, year: 2001

  6. Bioenergy and biodiversity: Intensified biomass extraction from hedges impairs habitat conditions for birds.

    Sauerbrei, Ralf; Aue, Birgit; Krippes, Christian; Diehl, Eva; Wolters, Volkmar

    2017-02-01

    Biomass is increasingly used as an alternative source for energy in Europe. Woody material cut from hedges is considered to provide a suitable complement to maize and oilseed rape, which are currently the dominant biomass sources. Since shrubs and trees are also important habitats for birds, however, coppicing of hedges at the landscape scale may adversely affect the diversity of the avifauna. To evaluate this risk, we estimated the response of hedge birds to three management scenarios differing in cutting intensity and hedge selection. The analysis was done using hedge data of the Lautertal municipality (n = 339 hedges; Vogelsberg area, Hesse, Germany). It focused on 25 bird species, which are all listed in the hedge programme of the German Ornithological Stations. Information on the preferences of these birds for certain hedge features such as height or width was gathered by an extensive literature review. A cluster analysis on the consolidated literature data allowed us to identify three groups of birds according to their preference for certain hedge attributes. Two groups, which included Yellowhammer (Emberiza citrinella L.) (i) and Blackbird (Turdus merula L.) (ii), favoured trees located in hedges, but differed in their preference for hedge shape, with (i) being attracted by long and broad hedges and (ii) by high hedges. The third group, which included the Whitethroat (Sylvia communis L.), preferred small hedges with gaps and medium vegetation density. Spatially explicit suitability models based on these data allowed us to predict the status quo of hedge suitability for these species groups. Field surveys proved the accuracy of the predictions to be sufficient, since the hedge suitability predicted was significantly and positively correlated to the occurrence of 9 out of the 12 testable focal species. Our models predicted biomass extraction to almost always reduce hedge suitability for the three bird groups. Concerning the Yellowhammer and the Blackbird

  7. A Hedge for Gödel Fuzzy Logic

    Hájek, Petr; Harmancová, Dagmar

    2000-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2000), s. 495-498 ISSN 0218-4885 Grant - others:COST(XE) Action 15 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1030915 Keywords : fuzzy logic * Gödel logic * intuitionistic logic * hedges Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.145, year: 2000

  8. Hedging and Boosting in English and Indonesian Research Articles

    Sanjaya, I Nyoman Suka

    2013-01-01

    The present cross-cultural and cross-disciplinary study was aimed at exploring the similarities and differences between English and Indonesian research articles from the disciplines of applied linguistics and chemistry in terms of frequency of usage of hedges (e.g. "perhaps," "may") and boosters (e.g. "clearly,"…

  9. 12 CFR 956.6 - Use of hedging instruments.

    2010-01-01

    ... counterparty for over-the-counter derivative contracts shall include: (i) A requirement that market value... reasonable estimate of the market value of the over-the-counter derivative contract at termination (standard.... Derivative instruments that do not qualify as hedging instruments pursuant to GAAP may be used only if a non...

  10. Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market

    Kozarski, R.

    2013-01-01

    In course of the analysis, we take advantage of extended market evidence in the model estimation and a more complex design to assess the model pricing and hedging performance. The pursuit of more empirically relevant frameworks pays-off is a more precise pricing. However, instead of developing

  11. Belief elicitation in experiments: is there a hedging problem?

    Blanco, M.; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, A. K.; Normann, H.-T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 4 (2010), s. 412-438 ISSN 1386-4157 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : belief elicitation * hedging * experimental methodology Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.868, year: 2010

  12. Pricing and Hedging Guaranteed Returns on Mix Funds

    Vellekoop, M.H.; van de Kamp, A.A.; Post, B.A.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract In this paper we propose a valuation and hedging strategy for a guaranteed minimal rate of return on a mix fund, which participates in both bonds and stocks. For the case where a fixed amount of money is invested, we show that a European put option on the mix fund replicates the cash flows

  13. Delayed bet-hedging resilience strategies under environmental fluctuations

    Ogura, Masaki; Wakaiki, Masashi; Rubin, Harvey; Preciado, Victor M.

    2017-05-01

    Many biological populations, such as bacterial colonies, have developed through evolution a protection mechanism, called bet hedging, to increase their probability of survival under stressful environmental fluctuation. In this context, the concept of preadaptation refers to a common type of bet-hedging protection strategy in which a relatively small number of individuals in a population stochastically switch their phenotypes to a dormant metabolic state in which they increase their probability of survival against potential environmental shocks. Hence, if an environmental shock took place at some point in time, preadapted organisms would be better adapted to survive and proliferate once the shock is over. In many biological populations, the mechanisms of preadaptation and proliferation present delays whose influence in the fitness of the population are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a rigorous mathematical framework to analyze the role of delays in both preadaptation and proliferation mechanisms in the survival of biological populations, with an emphasis on bacterial colonies. Our theoretical framework allows us to analytically quantify the average growth rate of a bet-hedging bacterial colony with stochastically delayed reactions with arbitrary precision. We verify the accuracy of the proposed method by numerical simulations and conclude that the growth rate of a bet-hedging population shows a nontrivial dependency on their preadaptation and proliferation delays. Contrary to the current belief, our results show that faster reactions do not, in general, increase the overall fitness of a biological population.

  14. Currency Hedging for International Stock Portfolios : A General Approach

    de Roon, F.A.; Nijman, T.E.; Werker, B.J.M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper tests whether hedging currency risk improves the performance of international stock portfolios. We use a generalized performance measure which allows for investor-dependencies such as different utility functions and the presence of nontraded risks. In addition we show that an auxiliary

  15. Variance-optimal hedging for processes with stationary independent increments

    Hubalek, Friedrich; Kallsen, J.; Krawczyk, L.

    We determine the variance-optimal hedge when the logarithm of the underlying price follows a process with stationary independent increments in discrete or continuous time. Although the general solution to this problem is known as backward recursion or backward stochastic differential equation, we...

  16. Numeraire Invariance and application to Option Pricing and Hedging

    Jamshidian, F.; Vanmaele, Michèle; Deelstra, Griselda; De Schepper, Ann; Dhaene, Jan; Reynaerts, Huguette; Schoutens, Wim; Van Goethem, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Numeraire invariance is a well-known technique in option pricing and hedging theory. It takes a convenient asset as the numeraire, as if it were the medium of exchange, and expresses all other asset and option prices in units of this numeraire. Since the price of the numeraire relative to itself is

  17. 77 FR 63360 - Permal Hedge Strategies Fund, et al.;

    2012-10-16

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Investment Company Act Release No. IC-30228; 812-14011] Permal Hedge Strategies Fund, et al.; Notice of Application October 9, 2012. AGENCY: Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission''). ACTION: Notice of an application under section 6(c) of the Investment Company...

  18. Double hedge aids commercial terms of upstream asset purchase

    Wood, D.

    1993-01-01

    In recent years many major oil companies have elected to rationalize their producing assets. Mature production--particularly onshore in developed countries, associated with high costs and small profit margins--has been the major target. The current weakness in oil prices has resulted in many such properties being on the market. However, much production marginal to a major can be highly profitable to a cost-effective independent, particularly if the production fits strategically with the independent's asset portfolio. Although many independents recognize that some of the producing assets on the market could be of potential value to them, in a period of volatile prices two important valuations have to be technically justified and negotiated to enable or persuade them to conclude a purchase agreement for a specific asset. These are: A purchase value for an asset that is acceptable to both seller and buyer; and A loan value for the asset to establish the level of debt that the asset can support for the buyer. In defining these two important values (both of which are usually established as ranges rather than single values) the independent has to protect itself against a downturn in commodity prices and exposing itself to an unserviceable level of debt. The paper discusses reducing risks, purchase price hedge, an example of a hedged purchase price, price elements, loan value analysis, agreement structure, loan value hedge, and an example of a hedged loan value

  19. Risk & Hedging Behavior: The Role and Determinants of Latent Heterogeneity

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of heterogeneous behavior is well grounded in economic theory. Recently it has been shown in a hedging context that the influence of risk attitudes and risk perceptions varies for different segments using a generalized mixture regression model. Here, using recently developed individual

  20. Score-Driven Nelson Siegel: Hedging Long-Term Liabilities

    R. Quaedvlieg (Rogier); P.C. Schotman (Peter)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractDue to its affine structure the Nelson-Siegel model for yield curves can be transformed to a factor model for excess bond returns. Hedging interest rate risk in this framework amounts to eliminating the factor exposure and minimizing the residual risk. Fitting the model directly on

  1. Speculative and hedging activities in the European carbon market

    Lucia, Julio J.; Mansanet-Bataller, Maria; Pardo, Ángel

    2015-01-01

    We explore the dynamics of the speculative and hedging activities in European futures carbon markets by using volume and open interest data. A comparison of the three phases in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) reveals that (i) Phase II of the EU ETS seems to be the most speculative phase to date and (ii) the highest degree of speculative activity for every single phase occurs at the moment of listing the contracts for the first time. A seasonality analysis identifies a higher level of speculation in the first quarter of each year, related to the schedule of deadlines of the EU ETS. In addition, a time series analysis confirms that most of the speculative activity each year occurs in the front contract, whereas the hedging demand concentrates in the second-to-deliver futures contract. -- Highlights: •This study explores the evolution of speculative and hedging activities in futures carbon markets by using volume and open interest data. •Phase II of the EU ETS seems to be the most speculative phase to date. •A seasonality analysis identifies a higher level of speculation in the first quarter of each year. •Most of the speculative activity occurs in the front contract. •The hedging demand concentrates in the second-to-deliver futures contract

  2. The half-half plot

    Einmahl, J.H.J.; Gantner, M.

    2012-01-01

    The Half-Half (HH) plot is a new graphical method to investigate qualitatively the shape of a regression curve. The empirical HH-plot counts observations in the lower and upper quarter of a strip that moves horizontally over the scatterplot. The plot displays jumps clearly and reveals further

  3. Does conservation on farmland contribute to halting the biodiversity decline?

    Kleijn, David; Rundlöf, Maj; Scheper, Jeroen; Smith, Henrik G; Tscharntke, Teja

    2011-09-01

    Biodiversity continues to decline, despite the implementation of international conservation conventions and measures. To counteract biodiversity loss, it is pivotal to know how conservation actions affect biodiversity trends. Focussing on European farmland species, we review what is known about the impact of conservation initiatives on biodiversity. We argue that the effects of conservation are a function of conservation-induced ecological contrast, agricultural land-use intensity and landscape context. We find that, to date, only a few studies have linked local conservation effects to national biodiversity trends. It is therefore unknown how the extensive European agri-environmental budget for conservation on farmland contributes to the policy objectives to halt biodiversity decline. Based on this review, we identify new research directions addressing this important knowledge gap. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Monitoring and Modeling Farmland Productivity Along the Venice Coastland, Italy

    Manoli, G.; Bonetti, S.; Scudiero, E.

    2013-01-01

    The southern portion of the Venice coastland is a very precarious environment and salt contamination of land and groundwater is a severe problem that is seriously impacting the farmland productivity. Geophysical surveys, lab testing and continuous monitoring of hydrological parameters together wi...... model is linked to the atmosphere by the calculation of the stomatal conductance which is optimized for maximum carbon gain. The model is applied to the field site to understand the impact of land elevation, soil heterogeneities, and seawater contamination on land productivity.......The southern portion of the Venice coastland is a very precarious environment and salt contamination of land and groundwater is a severe problem that is seriously impacting the farmland productivity. Geophysical surveys, lab testing and continuous monitoring of hydrological parameters together...

  5. Strips of hourly power options. Approximate hedging using average-based forward contracts

    Lindell, Andreas; Raab, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    We study approximate hedging strategies for a contingent claim consisting of a strip of independent hourly power options. The payoff of the contingent claim is a sum of the contributing hourly payoffs. As there is no forward market for specific hours, the fundamental problem is to find a reasonable hedge using exchange-traded forward contracts, e.g. average-based monthly contracts. The main result is a simple dynamic hedging strategy that reduces a significant part of the variance. The idea is to decompose the contingent claim into mathematically tractable components and to use empirical estimations to derive hedging deltas. Two benefits of the method are that the technique easily extends to more complex power derivatives and that only a few parameters need to be estimated. The hedging strategy based on the decomposition technique is compared with dynamic delta hedging strategies based on local minimum variance hedging, using a correlated traded asset. (author)

  6. Generalized plotting facility

    Burris, R.D.; Gray, W.H.

    1978-01-01

    A command which causes the translation of any supported graphics file format to a format acceptable to any supported device was implemented on two linked DECsystem-10s. The processing of the command is divided into parsing and translating phases. In the parsing phase, information is extracted from the command and augmented by default data. The results of this phase are saved on disk, and the appropriate translating routine is invoked. Twenty-eight translating programs were implemented in this system. They support four different graphics file formats, including the DISSPLA and Calcomp formats, and seven different types of plotters, including Tektronix, Calcomp, and Versatec devices. Some of the plotters are devices linked to the DECsystem-10s, and some are driven by IBM System/360 computers linked via a communications network to the DECsystem-10s. The user of this facility can use any of the supported packages to create a file of graphics data, preview the file on an on-line scope, and, when satisfied, cause the same data to be plotted on a hard-copy device. All of the actions utilize a single simple command format. 2 figures.

  7. FINANCING FARMLAND PRESERVATION: THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA EXPERIENCE

    Greden, Leah R.; Taff, Steven J.

    1994-01-01

    Two farmland protection programs in the Twin Cities (Minnesota) Metropolitan Area--Green Acres and Agricultural Preserves-- together enrolled 608,331 acres in 1992. The principal financing tool was a provision common to both programs under which participating landowners paid reduced property taxes in exchange for certain non- development assurances. The resulting shift in property tax obligations to other taxpayers amounted to $7.6 million for the 1993 tax year, an average shift of $12.50 per...

  8. Myxomatosis in farmland rabbit populations in England and Wales.

    Ross, J.; Tittensor, A. M.; Fox, A. P.; Sanders, M. F.

    1989-01-01

    The overall pattern and consequences of myxomatosis in wild rabbit populations were studied at three farmland sites in lowland southern England and upland central Wales between 1971 and 1978. When results from all years were combined, the disease showed a clear two-peaked annual cycle, with a main autumn peak between August and January, and a subsidiary spring peak during February to April. Rabbit fleas, the main vectors of myxomatosis in Britain, were present on full-grown rabbits in suffici...

  9. PV water pumping systems for grassland and farmland conservation

    Campana, Pietro Elia

    2013-01-01

    Grassland degradation is considered as one of the worst environmental and economic problems in China because of the negative impacts on water and food security. The application of the photovoltaic water pumping (PVWP) technology for irrigation is an innovative and sustainable solution to curb the progress of grassland desertification and to promote the conservation of farmland in remote areas. The combination of PVWP with water saving irrigation techniques and the sustainable management of th...

  10. Movement patterns of cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ) in farmlands in Botswana

    Van Der Weyde, L K; Hubel, T; Horgan, J; Shotton, J; McKenna, R; Wilson, A M

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Botswana has the second highest population of cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) with most living outside protected areas. As a result, many cheetahs are found in farming areas which occasionally results in human-wildlife conflict. This study aimed to look at movement patterns of cheetahs in farming environments to determine whether cheetahs have adapted their movements in these human-dominated landscapes. We fitted high-time resolution GPS collars to cheetahs in the Ghanzi farmlands of Bots...

  11. FARMLAND: Model description and evaluation of model performance

    Attwood, C.; Fayers, C.; Mayall, A.; Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The FARMLAND model was originally developed for use in connection with continuous, routine releases of radionuclides, but because it has many time-dependent features it has been developed further for a single accidental release. The most recent version of FARMLAND is flexible and can be used to predict activity concentrations in food as a function of time after both accidental and routine releases of radionuclides. The effect of deposition at different times of the year can be taken into account. FARMLAND contains a suite of models which simulate radionuclide transfer through different parts of the foodchain. The models can be used in different combinations and offer the flexibility to assess a variety of radiological situations. The main foods considered are green vegetables, grain products, root vegetables, milk, meat and offal from cattle, and meat and offal from sheep. A large variety of elements can be considered although the degree of complexity with which some are modelled is greater than others; isotopes of caesium, strontium and iodine are treated in greatest detail. 22 refs, 12 figs, 10 tabs

  12. FARMLAND: Model description and evaluation of model performance

    Attwood, C; Fayers, C; Mayall, A; Brown, J; Simmonds, J R [National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom)

    1996-09-01

    The FARMLAND model was originally developed for use in connection with continuous, routine releases of radionuclides, but because it has many time-dependent features it has been developed further for a single accidental release. The most recent version of FARMLAND is flexible and can be used to predict activity concentrations in food as a function of time after both accidental and routine releases of radionuclides. The effect of deposition at different times of the year can be taken into account. FARMLAND contains a suite of models which simulate radionuclide transfer through different parts of the foodchain. The models can be used in different combinations and offer the flexibility to assess a variety of radiological situations. The main foods considered are green vegetables, grain products, root vegetables, milk, meat and offal from cattle, and meat and offal from sheep. A large variety of elements can be considered although the degree of complexity with which some are modelled is greater than others; isotopes of caesium, strontium and iodine are treated in greatest detail. 22 refs, 12 figs, 10 tabs.

  13. Determining the multi-scale hedge ratios of stock index futures using the lower partial moments method

    Dai, Jun; Zhou, Haigang; Zhao, Shaoquan

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers a multi-scale future hedge strategy that minimizes lower partial moments (LPM). To do this, wavelet analysis is adopted to decompose time series data into different components. Next, different parametric estimation methods with known distributions are applied to calculate the LPM of hedged portfolios, which is the key to determining multi-scale hedge ratios over different time scales. Then these parametric methods are compared with the prevailing nonparametric kernel metric method. Empirical results indicate that in the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) index futures and spot markets, hedge ratios and hedge efficiency estimated by the nonparametric kernel metric method are inferior to those estimated by parametric hedging model based on the features of sequence distributions. In addition, if minimum-LPM is selected as a hedge target, the hedging periods, degree of risk aversion, and target returns can affect the multi-scale hedge ratios and hedge efficiency, respectively.

  14. [Dynamic changes of soil microbial populations and enzyme activities in super-high yielding summer maize farmland soil].

    Hou, Peng; Wang, Yong-jun; Wang, Kong-jun; Yang, Jin-sheng; Li, Deng-hai; Dong, Shu-ting; Liu, Jing-guo

    2008-08-01

    To reveal the characteristics of the dynamic changes of soil microbial populations and enzyme activities in super-high yielding ( > 15,000 kg x hm(-2)) summer maize farmland soil, a comparative study was conducted in the experimental fields in National Maize Engineering Research Center (Shandong). On the fields with an annual yield of >15,000 kg x hm(-2) in continuous three years, a plot with the yield of 20 322 kg x hm(-2) (HF) was chosen to make comparison with the conventional farmland (CF) whose maize yield was 8920. 1 kg x hm(-2). The numbers of bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes as well as the activities of urease and invertase in 0-20 cm soil layer were determined. The results showed that in the growth period of maize, the numbers of bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes in the two farmland soils increased first and declined then. At the later growth stages of maize, the numbers of soil microbes, especially those of bacteria and actinomycetes, were lower in HF than those in CF. At harvest stage, the ratio of the number of soil bacteria to fungi (B/ F) in HF was 2.03 times higher than that at sowing stage, and 3.02 times higher than that in CF. The B/F in CF had less difference at harvest and sowing stages. The soil urease activity in HF was significantly lower than that in CF at jointing stage, and the invertase activity in HF decreased rapidly after blooming stage, being significantly lower than that in CF.

  15. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Đorđević Bojan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  16. Resilience-based perspectives to guiding high-nature-value farmland through socioeconomic change

    Plieninger, Tobias; Bieling, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    and their integration into HNV farmland management: (1) coupling of social and ecological systems, (2) key variables, (3) adaptive cycles, (4) regime shifts, (5) cascading effects, (6) ecosystem stewardship and collaboration, (7) social capital, and (8) traditional ecological knowledge. We argue that previous...... conservation efforts for HNV farmland have focused too much on static, isolated, and monosectoral conservation strategies, and that stimulation of resilience and adaptation is essential for guiding HNV farmland through rapid change....

  17. Immunization and Hedging of Post Retirement Income Annuity Products

    Changyu Liu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Designing post retirement benefits requires access to appropriate investment instruments to manage the interest rate and longevity risks. Post retirement benefits are increasingly taken as a form of income benefit, either as a pension or an annuity. Pension funds and life insurers offer annuities generating long term liabilities linked to longevity. Risk management of life annuity portfolios for interest rate risks is well developed but the incorporation of longevity risk has received limited attention. We develop an immunization approach and a delta-gamma based hedging approach to manage the risks of adverse portfolio surplus using stochastic models for mortality and interest rates. We compare and assess the immunization and hedge effectiveness of fixed-income coupon bonds, annuity bonds, as well as longevity bonds, using simulations of the portfolio surplus for an annuity portfolio and a range of risk measures including value-at-risk. We show how fixed-income annuity bonds can more effectively match cash flows and provide additional hedge effectiveness over coupon bonds. Longevity bonds, including deferred longevity bonds, reduce risk significantly compared to coupon and annuity bonds, reflecting the long duration of the typical life annuity and the exposure to longevity risk. Longevity bonds are shown to be effective in immunizing surplus over short and long horizons. Delta gamma hedging is generally only effective over short horizons. The results of the paper have implications for how providers of post retirement income benefit streams can manage risks in demanding conditions where innovation in investment markets can support new products and increase the product range.

  18. The Economics of Hedge Funds: Alpha, Fees, Leverage, and Valuation

    Yingcong Lan; Neng Wang; Jinqiang Yang

    2011-01-01

    Hedge fund managers are compensated via management fees on the assets under management (AUM) and incentive fees indexed to the high-water mark (HWM). We study the effects of managerial skills (alpha) and compensation on dynamic leverage choices and the valuation of fees and investors' payoffs. Increasing the investment allocation to the alpha-generating strategy typically lowers the fund's risk-adjusted excess return due to frictions such as price pressure. When the manager is only paid via m...

  19. Practical hedging and gas purchasing strategies for end-users

    Rosenzweig, J.

    1995-01-01

    Characteristics of the gas portfolio were described and its purpose was discussed in terms of diversification, risk reduction and flexibility. Tools to adjust the portfolio were discussed in terms of swaps and futures. Advantages and disadvantages of exchange and off-exchange traded instruments were outlined. Turning basis gas into a published indexed price, otherwise known as hedging, was explained. The market players ( banks, dealers, brokers) and their roles were described

  20. Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration

    Stephen Brown; William Goetzmann; Bing Liang; Christopher Schwarz

    2006-01-01

    Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow-performance relationships. Inv...

  1. Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

    Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo

    2011-01-01

    The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...

  2. Missing Data Bias on a Selective Hedging Strategy

    Kiss Gábor Dávid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Foreign exchange rates affect corporate profitability both on the macro and cash-flow level. The current study analyses the bias of missing data on a selective hedging strategy, where currency options are applied in case of Value at Risk (1% signs. However, there can be special occasions when one or some data is missing due to lack of a trading activity. This paper focuses on the impact of different missing data handling methods on GARCH and Value at Risk model parameters, because of selective hedging and option pricing based on them. The main added value of the current paper is the comparison of the impact of different methods, such as listwise deletion, mean substitution, and maximum likelihood based Expectation Maximization, on risk management because this subject has insufficient literature. The current study tested daily closing data of floating currencies from Kenya (KES, Ghana (GHS, South Africa (ZAR, Tanzania (TZS, Uganda (UGX, Gambia (GMD, Madagascar (MGA and Mozambique (MZN in USD denomination against EUR/USD rate between March 8, 2000 and March 6, 2015 acquired from the Bloomberg database. Our results suggested the biases of missingness on Value at Risk and volatility models, presenting significant differences among the number of extreme fluctuations or model parameters. A selective hedging strategy can have different expenditures due to the choice of method. This paper suggests the usage of mean substitution or listwise deletion for daily financial time series due to their tendency to have a close to zero first momentum

  3. Hedging strategies in energy markets: the case of electricity retailers

    Boroumand, Raphael Homayoun; Goutte, Stephane; Porcher, Simon; Porcher, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    As market intermediaries, electricity retailers buy electricity from the wholesale market or self-generate for re(sale) on the retail market. Electricity retailers are uncertain about how much electricity their residential customers will use at any time of the day until they actually turn switches on. While demand uncertainty is a common feature of all commodity markets, retailers generally rely on storage to manage demand uncertainty. On electricity markets, retailers are exposed to joint quantity and price risk on an hourly basis given the physical singularity of electricity as a commodity. In the literature on electricity markets, few articles deals on intra-day hedging portfolios to manage joint price and quantity risk whereas electricity markets are hourly markets. The contributions of the article are twofold. First, we define through a VaR and CVaR model optimal portfolios for specific hours (3 a.m., 6 a.m.,...,12 p.m.) based on electricity market data from 2001 to 2011 for the French market. We prove that the optimal hedging strategy differs depending on the cluster hour. Secondly, we demonstrate the significantly superior efficiency of intra-day hedging portfolios over daily (therefore weekly and yearly) portfolios. Over a decade (2001-2011), our results clearly show that the losses of an optimal daily portfolio are at least nine times higher than the losses of optimal intra-day portfolios. (authors)

  4. Hedge Effectiveness in the Brazilian US Dollar Futures Market

    Leonardo Lima Gomes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, one could observe a very definite surge in dollar prices in Brazil. Many Brazilian Companies, especially those with large amounts of dollar denominated debt incurred substantial losses due to the strong and fast growth of the dollar. The subsequent dollar price collapse from 2002 to 2008 caused great losses to exporters. In the context of hedge being a form of protection against currency oscillations, this paper aimed to study its effectiveness using the dollar future market in the BM&FBovespa. Specifically, four alternatives for calculating the optimum hedge ratio were compared: a the so called naïve approach, where opposite positions are taken in the spot and future markets; b OLS – Ordinary Least Squares c symmetric bi-variate GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity; d asymmetric bi-variate GARCH. The results showed that both GARCH supported hedge ratios presented higher effectiveness when compared to OLS, with in turn surpassed the naïve one.

  5. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  6. Striking Features of the New Market Companies Adopting Hedge Accounting

    Leandro Augusto Toigo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This research had as main objective to analyze the corporate and financial governance characteristics that discriminate against groups of companies that adopt hedge accounting in the new market for risk management. In this sense, there was descriptive survey the site of BM&FBOVESPA, conducted through desk review of the financial statements of 31/12/2012, including the explicative notes and management reports, there was also collecting data in reference form and Economatica. The population corresponds as 128 companies of the governance level - new market, and that the reserve sample was random and probabilistic, comprising 88 companies. We used a construct of the CPC 40 that deals with hedge accounting in order to segment the sample companies opting or not hedge accounting. The results of the application of Pearson's correlation and logistic regression with the Hosmer and Lemoshow tests (HLT and Test Omnibus coefficient model (OTMC, have shown that companies with ownership concentration, foreign investors and larger assets are adopting more significantly CPC 40. It follows that Brazilian companies belonging to the new market that adopt the practice of accounting disclosure to demonstrate improvement in risk management of the investments of the shareholders, are large companies with the capital structure composed of foreign investor and representative shareholder wealth.

  7. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  8. Isodose plotting for pen plotters

    Rosen, I.I.

    1985-01-01

    A general algorithm for treatment plan isodose line plotting is described which is particularly useful for pen plotters. Unlike other methods of plotting isodose lines, this algorithm is designed specifically to reduce pen motion, thereby reducing plotting time and wear on the transport mechanism. Points with the desired dose value are extracted from the dose matrix and stored, sorted into continuous contours, and then plotted. This algorithm has been implemented on DEC PDP-11/60 and VAX-11/780 computers for use with two models of Houston Instrument pen plotters, two models of Tektronix vector graphics terminals, a DEC VT125 raster graphics terminal, and a DEC VS11 color raster graphics terminal. Its execution time is similar to simpler direct-plotting methods

  9. Trellis plots as visual aids for analyzing split plot experiments

    Kulahci, Murat; Menon, Anil

    2017-01-01

    The analysis of split plot experiments can be challenging due to a complicated error structure resulting from restrictions on complete randomization. Similarly, standard visualization methods do not provide the insight practitioners desire to understand the data, think of explanations, generate...... hypotheses, build models, or decide on next steps. This article demonstrates the effective use of trellis plots in the preliminary data analysis for split plot experiments to address this problem. Trellis displays help to visualize multivariate data by allowing for conditioning in a general way. They can...

  10. Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009

    Itzhak Ben-David; Francesco Franzoni; Rabih Moussawi

    2012-01-01

    Hedge funds significantly reduced their equity holdings during the recent financial crisis. In 2008:Q3----Q4, hedge funds sold about 29% of their aggregate portfolio. Redemptions and margin calls were the primary drivers of selloffs. Consistent with forced deleveraging, the selloffs took place in volatile and liquid stocks. In comparison, redemptions and stock sales for mutual funds were not as severe. We show that hedge fund investors withdraw capital three times as intensely as mutual fund ...

  11. Hedging with futures: an application of GARCH to european electricity markets

    G. Zanotti; G. Gabbi; M. Geranio

    2009-01-01

    European electricity markets have been subject to a broad deregulation process in the last few decades. We analyse hedging policies implemented through different hedge ratios estimation. More specifically we compare naïve, ordinary least squares, and GARCH conditional variance and correlations models to test if GARCH models lead to higher variance reduction in a context of high time varying volatility as the case of electricity markets. Our results show that the choice of the hedge ratio esti...

  12. Effect of reservoir zones and hedging factor dynamism on reservoir adaptive capacity for climate change impacts

    Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy

    2018-06-01

    When based on the zones of available water in storage, hedging has traditionally used a single hedged zone and a constant rationing ratio for constraining supply during droughts. Given the usual seasonality of reservoir inflows, it is also possible that hedging could feature multiple hedged zones and temporally varying rationing ratios but very few studies addressing this have been reported especially in relation to adaptation to projected climate change. This study developed and tested Genetic Algorithms (GA) optimised zone-based operating policies of various configurations using data for the Pong reservoir, Himachal Pradesh, India. The results show that hedging does lessen vulnerability, which dropped from ≥ 60 % without hedging to below 25 % with the single stage hedging. More complex hedging policies, e.g. two stage and/or temporally varying rationing ratios only produced marginal improvements in performance. All this shows that water hedging policies do not have to be overly complex to effectively offset reservoir vulnerability caused by water shortage resulting from e.g. projected climate change.

  13. Return and volatility transmission between gold and stock sectors: Application of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness

    Dilip Kumar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the first and second orders moment transmission between gold and Indian industrial sectors with an application of portfolio design and hedging effectiveness using generalised VAR-ADCC-BVGARCH model. Our findings indicate unidirectional significant return spillover from gold to stock sectors. The negative values of estimated time varying conditional correlations are mainly observed during periods of market turbulence and crisis indicating the scope of portfolio diversification and hedging during these periods. We also estimate optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the stock-gold portfolios. Our findings suggest that stock-gold portfolio provides better diversification benefits than stock portfolios.

  14. Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity.

    Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S

    2010-11-09

    Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption.

  15. Movement patterns of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in farmlands in Botswana

    Hubel, T. Y.; Horgan, J.; Shotton, J.; McKenna, R.; Wilson, A. M.

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Botswana has the second highest population of cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) with most living outside protected areas. As a result, many cheetahs are found in farming areas which occasionally results in human-wildlife conflict. This study aimed to look at movement patterns of cheetahs in farming environments to determine whether cheetahs have adapted their movements in these human-dominated landscapes. We fitted high-time resolution GPS collars to cheetahs in the Ghanzi farmlands of Botswana. GPS locations were used to calculate home range sizes as well as number and duration of visits to landscape features using a time-based local convex hull method. Cheetahs had medium-sized home ranges compared to previously studied cheetah in similar farming environments. Results showed that cheetahs actively visited scent marking trees and avoided visiting homesteads. A slight preference for visiting game farms over cattle farms was found, but there was no difference in duration of visits between farm types. We conclude that cheetahs selected for areas that are important for their dietary and social needs and prefer to avoid human-occupied areas. Improved knowledge of how cheetahs use farmlands can allow farmers to make informed decisions when developing management practices and can be an important tool for reducing human-wildlife conflict. PMID:27913453

  16. Organic fields sustain weed metacommunity dynamics in farmland landscapes.

    Henckel, Laura; Börger, Luca; Meiss, Helmut; Gaba, Sabrina; Bretagnolle, Vincent

    2015-06-07

    Agro-ecosystems constitute essential habitat for many organisms. Agricultural intensification, however, has caused a strong decline of farmland biodiversity. Organic farming (OF) is often presented as a more biodiversity-friendly practice, but the generality of the beneficial effects of OF is debated as the effects appear often species- and context-dependent, and current research has highlighted the need to quantify the relative effects of local- and landscape-scale management on farmland biodiversity. Yet very few studies have investigated the landscape-level effects of OF; that is to say, how the biodiversity of a field is affected by the presence or density of organically farmed fields in the surrounding landscape. We addressed this issue using the metacommunity framework, with weed species richness in winter wheat within an intensively farmed landscape in France as model system. Controlling for the effects of local and landscape structure, we showed that OF leads to higher local weed diversity and that the presence of OF in the landscape is associated with higher local weed biodiversity also for conventionally farmed fields, and may reach a similar biodiversity level to organic fields in field margins. Based on these results, we derive indications for improving the sustainable management of farming systems. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  17. Movement patterns of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus in farmlands in Botswana

    L. K. Van der Weyde

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Botswana has the second highest population of cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus with most living outside protected areas. As a result, many cheetahs are found in farming areas which occasionally results in human-wildlife conflict. This study aimed to look at movement patterns of cheetahs in farming environments to determine whether cheetahs have adapted their movements in these human-dominated landscapes. We fitted high-time resolution GPS collars to cheetahs in the Ghanzi farmlands of Botswana. GPS locations were used to calculate home range sizes as well as number and duration of visits to landscape features using a time-based local convex hull method. Cheetahs had medium-sized home ranges compared to previously studied cheetah in similar farming environments. Results showed that cheetahs actively visited scent marking trees and avoided visiting homesteads. A slight preference for visiting game farms over cattle farms was found, but there was no difference in duration of visits between farm types. We conclude that cheetahs selected for areas that are important for their dietary and social needs and prefer to avoid human-occupied areas. Improved knowledge of how cheetahs use farmlands can allow farmers to make informed decisions when developing management practices and can be an important tool for reducing human-wildlife conflict.

  18. Farmland biodiversity and agriculture management on 237 farms in 13 European and two African regions

    Lüscher, G.; Ammari, Y.; Andriets, A.; Angelova, Siyka; Arndorfer, Michaela; Bailey, D.; Balázs, Katalin; Bogers, M.M.B.; Lange, de H.J.; Kats, van R.J.M.

    2016-01-01

    Farmland is a major land cover type in Europe and Africa and provides habitat for numerous species. The severe decline in farmland biodiversity of the last decades has been attributed to changes in farming practices, and organic and low-input farming are assumed to mitigate detrimental effects of

  19. Farmland biodiversity and agricultural management on 237 farms in 13 European and two African regions

    Lüscher, G.; Ammari, Y.; Andriets, A.; Angelova, Siyka; Arndorfer, Michaela; Bailey, D.; Balázs, K.; Bogers, M.M.B.; Bunce, R.G.H.; Choisis, Jean Philippe; Dennis, P.; Díaz, M.; Dyman, T.; Eiter, Sebastian; Fjellstad, W.; Fraser, M.; Friedel, Jürgen K.; Garchi, S.; Geijzendorffer, I.R.; Gomiero, Tiziano; González-Bornay, G.; Guteva, Y.; Herzog, F.; Jeanneret, P.; Jongman, R.H.G.

    2016-01-01

    Farmland is a major land cover type in Europe and Africa and provides habitat for numerous species. The severe decline in farmland biodiversity of the last decades has been attributed to changes in farming practices, and organic and low-input farming are assumed to mitigate detrimental effects of

  20. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Landscape-moderated bird nest predation in hedges and forest edges

    Ludwig, Martin; Schlinkert, Hella; Holzschuh, Andrea; Fischer, Christina; Scherber, Christoph; Trnka, Alfréd; Tscharntke, Teja; Batáry, Péter

    2012-11-01

    Landscape-scale agricultural intensification has caused severe declines in biodiversity. Hedges and forest remnants may mitigate biodiversity loss by enhancing landscape heterogeneity and providing habitat to a wide range of species, including birds. However, nest predation, the major cause of reproductive failure of birds, has been shown to be higher in forest edges than in forest interiors. Little is known about how spatial arrangement (configuration) of hedges affects the avian nest predation. We performed an experiment with artificial ground and elevated nests (resembling yellowhammer and whitethroat nests) baited with quail and plasticine eggs. Nests were placed in three habitat types with different degrees of isolation from forests: forest edges, hedges connected to forests and hedges isolated from forests. Nest predation was highest in forest edges, lowest in hedges connected to forests and intermediate in isolated hedges. In the early breeding season, we found similar nest predation on ground and elevated nests, but in the late breeding season nest predation was higher on ground nests than on elevated nests. Small mammals were the main predators of ground nests and appeared to be responsible for the increase in predation from early to late breeding season, whereas the elevated nests were mainly depredated by small birds and small mammals. High predation pressure at forest edges was probably caused by both forest and open-landscape predators. The influence of forest predators may be lower at hedges, leading to lower predation pressure than in forest edges. Higher predation pressure in isolated than connected hedges might be an effect of concentration of predators in these isolated habitats. We conclude that landscape configuration of hedges is important in nest predation, with connected hedges allowing higher survival than isolated hedges and forest edges.

  2. Penggunaan Hedging oleh Perusahaan Telekomunikasi yang Tercatat Pada Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Basyid Ahmad

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this research were to have a comprehensive understanding on hedging implementation in telecommunication companies and to comprehend the impact of hedge to firm value of the companies. In this research, hedging is the moderating variable between independent variable and dependent variable. The independent variables included profit, firm size, leverage, growth, dividend and liquidity while the dependent variable included firm value. The method used was the ordinary least Square. The samples were taken from 2 telecommunication companies, and the data observed included the quarterly financial data from 2006 to 2015. The findings showed that derivative transactions used as hedge by the companies included cross currency swap, forward and option. Furthermore, the use of hedging foreign exchange was not seen to affect the firm value for the telecommunication company. This is because the 5 moderating variables did not significantly affect the firm value and only 1 moderating variable had a significantly negative effect on the firm value. Keywords: derivative, foreign exchange, firm value, hedge, telecommunication’ companyAbstrak: Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menggambarkan penerapan hedging pada perusahaan telekomunikasi publik serta mengetahui dampak hedging terhadap nilai perusahaan. Dalam penelitian ini, hedging merupakan variabel moderating terhadap berbagai variabel yang memengaruhi nilai perusahaan yaitu variabel profitabilitas, firm size, leverage, growth, dividen dan likuiditas. Teknik analisis yang dipakai, yaitu regresi (ordinary least Square. Sedangkan perusahaan yang diteliti sebanyak 2 perusahaan publik dengan data keuangan triwulan sejak tahun 2006 sampai dengan 2015. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hedging dilakukan perusahaan telekomunikasi adalah melalui transaksi derivatif, yaitu cross currency swap, forward dan option. Secara umum hedging tidak memengaruhi nilai perusahaan mengingat 5 variabel yang telah

  3. Resilience-Based Perspectives to Guiding High-Nature-Value Farmland through Socioeconomic Change

    Tobias Plieninger

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Global environmental challenges require approaches that integrate biodiversity conservation, food production, and livelihoods at landscape scales. We reviewed the approach of conserving biodiversity on "high-nature-value" (HNV farmland, covering 75 million ha in Europe, from a resilience perspective. Despite growing recognition in natural resource policies, many HNV farmlands have vanished, and the remaining ones are vulnerable to socioeconomic changes. Using landscape-level cases across Europe, we considered the following social-ecological system properties and components and their integration into HNV farmland management: (1 coupling of social and ecological systems, (2 key variables, (3 adaptive cycles, (4 regime shifts, (5 cascading effects, (6 ecosystem stewardship and collaboration, (7 social capital, and (8 traditional ecological knowledge. We argue that previous conservation efforts for HNV farmland have focused too much on static, isolated, and monosectoral conservation strategies, and that stimulation of resilience and adaptation is essential for guiding HNV farmland through rapid change.

  4. The Effect of Founder Family Influence on Hedging and Speculation

    Aabo, Tom; Kuhn, Jochen; Zanotti, Giovanna

    We investigate the effect of founder family influence in the form of managers, board of directors, and/or ownership on hedging and speculation in medium-sized, manufacturing firms in Denmark. On a crude measure of use / non-use of derivatives we find only a weak indication of differences between...... founder family firms and other firms in relation to their management of foreign exchange rate, interest rate, and commodity price exposures. Digging deeper into a subsample of users of foreign exchange derivatives and debt denominated in foreign currency, we find that founder family firms not only tend...

  5. On Exponential Hedging and Related Quadratic Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

    Sekine, Jun

    2006-01-01

    The dual optimization problem for the exponential hedging problem is addressed with a cone constraint. Without boundedness conditions on the terminal payoff and the drift of the Ito-type controlled process, the backward stochastic differential equation, which has a quadratic growth term in the drift, is derived as a necessary and sufficient condition for optimality via a variational method and dynamic programming. Further, solvable situations are given, in which the value and the optimizer are expressed in closed forms with the help of the Clark-Haussmann-Ocone formula

  6. Optimal Hedge Tracking Portfolios in a Limit Order Book

    Ellersgaard, Simon; Tegner, Martin

    2017-01-01

    -optimizing option seller, who hedges his position using a combination of limit and market orders, while facing certain constraints as to how far he can deviate from a targeted (Bachelierian) delta strategy. By translating the control problem into a three-dimensional Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman quasi......-variational inequality (HJB QVI) and solving numerically, we are able to deduce optimal limit order quotes alongside the regions surrounding the targeted delta surface in which the option seller must place limit orders vis-à-vis the more aggressive market orders. Our scheme is shown to be monotone, stable......, and consistent and thence, modulo a comparison principle, convergent in the viscosity sense....

  7. Analyzing the Impact of Highways Associated with Farmland Loss under Rapid Urbanization

    Jie Song

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Highway construction has accelerated urban growth and induced direct and indirect changes to land use. Although many studies have analyzed the relationship between highway construction and local development, relatively less attention has been paid to clarifying the various impacts of highways associated with farmland loss. This paper integrates GIS spatial analysis, remote sensing, buffer analysis and landscape metrics to analyze the landscape pattern change induced by direct and indirect highway impacts. This paper explores the interaction between the impact of highways and farmland loss, using the case of the highly urbanized traffic hubs in eastern China, Hang-Jia-Hu Plain. Our results demonstrate that the Hang-Jia-Hu Plain experienced extensive highway construction during 1990–2010, with a clear acceleration of expressway development since 2000. This unprecedented highway construction has directly fragmented the regional landscape and indirectly disturbed the regional landscape by attracting a large amount of built-up land transition from farmland during the last two decades. In the highway-effect zone, serious farmland loss initially occurred in the urban region and then spread to the rural region. Moreover, we found the discontinuous expansion of built-up land scattered the farmland in the rural region and expressway-effect zone. Furthermore, farmland protection policies in the 1990s had the effect of controlling the total area of farmland loss. However, the cohesive farmland structure was still fragmented by the direct and indirect impacts of highway construction. We suggest that an overall farmland protection system should be established to enhance spatial control and mitigate the adverse impacts caused by highway construction. This work improves the understanding of regional sustainable development, and provides a scientific basis for balanced urban development with farmland protection in decision-making processes.

  8. Minimal variance hedging of natural gas derivatives in exponential Lévy models: Theory and empirical performance

    Ewald, Christian-Oliver; Nawar, Roy; Siu, Tak Kuen

    2013-01-01

    We consider the problem of hedging European options written on natural gas futures, in a market where prices of traded assets exhibit jumps, by trading in the underlying asset. We provide a general expression for the hedging strategy which minimizes the variance of the terminal hedging error, in terms of stochastic integral representations of the payoffs of the options involved. This formula is then applied to compute hedge ratios for common options in various models with jumps, leading to easily computable expressions. As a benchmark we take the standard Black–Scholes and Merton delta hedges. We show that in natural gas option markets minimal variance hedging with underlying consistently outperform the benchmarks by quite a margin. - Highlights: ► We derive hedging strategies for European type options written on natural gas futures. ► These are tested empirically using Henry Hub natural gas futures and options data. ► We find that our hedges systematically outperform classical benchmarks

  9. On Mean-Variance Hedging of Bond Options with Stochastic Risk Premium Factor

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Kumar, Suresh K.

    2014-01-01

    We consider the mean-variance hedging problem for pricing bond options using the yield curve as the observation. The model considered contains infinite-dimensional noise sources with the stochastically- varying risk premium. Hence our model is incomplete. We consider mean-variance hedging under the

  10. 18 CFR 367.2450 - Account 245, Derivative instrument liabilities-Hedges

    2010-04-01

    ..., Derivative instrument liabilities—Hedges (a) This account must include the change in the fair value of... service company must record the change in the fair value of a derivative instrument liability related to a... change in the fair value of a derivative instrument liability related to a fair value hedge in this...

  11. The performance of multi-factor term structure models for pricing and hedging caps and swaptions

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Klaassen, P.; Melenberg, B.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we empirically compare a wide range of different term structure models when it comes to the pricing and, in particular, hedging of caps and swaptions. We analyze the influence of the number of factors on the hedging and pricing results, and investigate which type of data "interest rate

  12. The Performance of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models for Pricing and Hedging Caps and Swaptions

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Klaassen, P.; Melenberg, B.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we empirically compare different term structure models when it comes to the pricing and hedging of caps and swaptions.We analyze the influence of the number of factors on the pricing and hedging results, and investigate which type of data -interest rate data or derivative price data-

  13. Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance

    G. Baquero; J.R. ter Horst (Jenke); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe analyze the performance persistence in hedge funds taking into account look-ahead bias (multi-period sampling bias). We model liquidation of hedge funds by analyzing how it depends upon historical performance. Next, we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look-ahead bias in

  14. Ambiguities of the hedge: an exercise in creative pleaching - of moments, memories and meanings

    Harvey, David

    2017-01-01

    of subjection’, connected invariably with Parliamentary enclosure and proletarianisation, the English hedgerow is also an iconic symbol of rural tranquillity, and mainstay of many conservation and biodiversity agendas, with hedge-laying — – the practice of constructing a living hedge — championed as a key item...

  15. Eco-environment Restoration and Regional Differentiation Characteristics Based on “Building Terrace and Returning Slope Farmland to Forests and Grass”

    Yanhua; LIU; Yong; XU

    2013-01-01

    Based on the scientific and technological achievements in the past decade in the Loess Hilly-gully Region and the successful demonstration experience in Yan’an Yangou watershed, we summarize the characteristics of eco-environment restoration pattern based on "building terrace and returning slope farmland to forests and grass". According to the data on land use, slope farmland and the agricultural population in 1999, we calculate the area of new terrace that needs to be built, the area of garden plot that needs to be extended, vegetation restoration area and investment demand in counties (cities, districts). Establishing and using some indicators, such as basic farmland extension indicator, garden plot extension indicator, vegetation restoration index and investment demand density, we conduct type classification and analysis of regional differentiation characteristics in 55 counties (cities, districts). The results show that in the Loess Hilly-gully Region, 691 600 hm2 of new terrace needs to be built, 792 000 hm2 of economic forests and orchards need to be extended, 5 410 200 hm2 of vegetation needs to be restored, and the total investment demand is 15.82 billion yuan; in terms of geographical distribution, obviously there are two key areas for eco-environment restoration (one is located in the border area between northern Shaanxi and northwestern Shanxi, and the other is located in the eastern Gansu and southern Ningxia area); the classified regional guidance policies should be formulated as soon as possible, and the limited funds should be concentrated in the key areas.

  16. Estratégias de hedge com os contratos futuros de soja da Chicago Board of Trade Hedging strategies with Chicago Board of Trade soybeans futures contracts

    Fábio Neves de Carvalho da Silva Maia

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho avalia os retornos e os riscos de estratégias de hedge para as dez principais regiões produtoras de soja do Brasil em relação aos contratos futuros de soja da Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT. Verificou-se que as bases apresentaram padrão bem definido: fortalecimento entre maio e novembro, seguido por enfraquecimento nos seis meses subsequentes. Os hedgers de compra possuem oportunidades de obter retornos brutos maiores, mas os riscos envolvidos nas estratégias de hedge de compra também são maiores. Conclui-se que os contratos de soja em grão da CBOT apresentam diferentes possibilidades de retornos brutos em função do tipo de hedge, do período hedgeado e do contrato utilizado. Logo, as informações disponibilizadas neste trabalho se apresentam como importante subsídio ao processo de tomada de decisão por parte dos agentes da cadeia agroindustrial da soja.This paper analyzes the return and risks of hedging strategies of the major ten soybean producing regions in Brazil concerning Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT future contracts. It was verified that the bases presented a well defined pattern characterized by strengthening from May to November and weakening in the remaining months. Long hedging had larger returns and larger risks comparing with short hedging. The conclusion of this study is that the CBOT soybean contracts present different returns depending on the type of hedging, on the period of hedging, and on the contract used. Therefore, the information presented in this paper is very important to support the decision making process in the Brazilian soybean agricultural system.

  17. FARMLAND: model for transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial foodchains

    Brown, John

    1995-01-01

    Models to stimulate the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial foodchains have been developed at the Board and regularly used over the last 20 years. The foodchain model is named FARMLAND (Food Activity from Radionuclide Movement on LAND) and it contains a suite of submodels, each of which simulates radionuclide transfer through a different part of the foodchain. These models can be combined in various orders so that they can be used for different situations of radiological interest. The main foods considered are: green vegetables; grain products; root vegetables; fruit; milk, meat and offal from cattle; meat and offal from sheep. A large variety of elements can be considered, although the degree of complexity with which some are modelled is greater than that for others; isotopes of caesium, strontium and iodine are treated in greatest detail. (Author)

  18. Adaptive control system having hedge unit and related apparatus and methods

    Johnson, Eric Norman (Inventor); Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor)

    2007-01-01

    The invention includes an adaptive control system used to control a plant. The adaptive control system includes a hedge unit that receives at least one control signal and a plant state signal. The hedge unit generates a hedge signal based on the control signal, the plant state signal, and a hedge model including a first model having one or more characteristics to which the adaptive control system is not to adapt, and a second model not having the characteristic(s) to which the adaptive control system is not to adapt. The hedge signal is used in the adaptive control system to remove the effect of the characteristic from a signal supplied to an adaptation law unit of the adaptive control system so that the adaptive control system does not adapt to the characteristic in controlling the plant.

  19. Enhancing the Biodiversity of Ditches in Intensively Managed UK Farmland.

    Rosalind F Shaw

    Full Text Available Drainage ditches, either seasonally flooded or permanent, are commonly found on intensively managed lowland farmland in the UK. They are potentially important for wetland biodiversity but, despite their ubiquity, information on their biodiversity and management in the wider countryside is scarce. We surveyed 175 ditches for their physical and chemical characteristics, spatial connectivity, plant communities and aquatic invertebrates in an area of intensively managed farmland in Oxfordshire, UK and collected information on ditch management from farmer interviews. Water depth and shade had a small impact on the diversity of plant and invertebrate communities in ditches. Increased shade over the ditch channel resulted in reduced taxonomic richness of both channel vegetation and aquatic invertebrates and channel vegetation cover was lower at shaded sites. Invertebrate taxonomic richness was higher when water was deeper. Spatial connectivity had no detectable impact on the aquatic invertebrate or plant communities found in ditches. The number of families within the orders Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT, which contain many pollution-sensitive species, declined with decreasing pH of ditch water. As time since dredging increased, the number of EPT families increased in permanent ditches but decreased in temporary ditches. Whether or not a ditch was in an agri-environment scheme had little impact on the reported management regime or biodiversity value of the ditch. Measures for increasing the amount of water in ditches, by increasing the water depth or promoting retention of water in ditches, could increase the biodiversity value of ditches in agricultural land. Some temporary ditches for specialised species should be retained. Reducing the amount of shade over narrow ditches by managing adjacent hedgerows is also likely to increase the species diversity of plant and invertebrate communities within the ditch. We recommend that to preserve

  20. Enhancing the Biodiversity of Ditches in Intensively Managed UK Farmland.

    Shaw, Rosalind F; Johnson, Paul J; Macdonald, David W; Feber, Ruth E

    2015-01-01

    Drainage ditches, either seasonally flooded or permanent, are commonly found on intensively managed lowland farmland in the UK. They are potentially important for wetland biodiversity but, despite their ubiquity, information on their biodiversity and management in the wider countryside is scarce. We surveyed 175 ditches for their physical and chemical characteristics, spatial connectivity, plant communities and aquatic invertebrates in an area of intensively managed farmland in Oxfordshire, UK and collected information on ditch management from farmer interviews. Water depth and shade had a small impact on the diversity of plant and invertebrate communities in ditches. Increased shade over the ditch channel resulted in reduced taxonomic richness of both channel vegetation and aquatic invertebrates and channel vegetation cover was lower at shaded sites. Invertebrate taxonomic richness was higher when water was deeper. Spatial connectivity had no detectable impact on the aquatic invertebrate or plant communities found in ditches. The number of families within the orders Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT), which contain many pollution-sensitive species, declined with decreasing pH of ditch water. As time since dredging increased, the number of EPT families increased in permanent ditches but decreased in temporary ditches. Whether or not a ditch was in an agri-environment scheme had little impact on the reported management regime or biodiversity value of the ditch. Measures for increasing the amount of water in ditches, by increasing the water depth or promoting retention of water in ditches, could increase the biodiversity value of ditches in agricultural land. Some temporary ditches for specialised species should be retained. Reducing the amount of shade over narrow ditches by managing adjacent hedgerows is also likely to increase the species diversity of plant and invertebrate communities within the ditch. We recommend that to preserve or enhance the

  1. Verification of radiocesium decontamination from farmlands by plants in Fukushima.

    Kobayashi, Daisuke; Okouchi, Toshiyasu; Yamagami, Mutsumi; Shinano, Takuro

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to verify radiocesium decontamination from Fukushima farmland by plants and to screen plants useful for phytoremediation. Thirteen species from three families (Asteraceae, Fabaceae, and Poaceae) of crops were grown in shallow and deeply cultivated fields (0-8 and 0-15 cm plowing, respectively). To change plowing depth was expected to make different contacting zone between root system and radiocesium in soil. The radioactivity values of the plants due to the radiocesium ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs were 22-179 and 29-225 Bq kg dry weight⁻¹, respectively. The ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs transfer factors for plants grown in the shallow field ranged from 0.021 to 0.12 and fro 0.019 to 0.13, respectively, with the geometric means of 0.051 and 0.057, respectively. The ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs transfer factors for plants grown in the deep field ranged from 0.019 to 0.13 and from 0.022 to 0.13, respectively, with the geometric means of 0.045 and 0.063, respectively. Although a reducing ratio was calculated to evaluate the decrease in radiocesium from contaminated soil during cultivation (i.e., phytoremediation ability), no plant species resulted in a remarkable decrease in radiocesium in soil among the tested crops. These results should be followed up for several years and further analyses are required to evaluate whether the phytoremediation technique is applicable to radioactively contaminated farmlands.

  2. Anthropogenically-Mediated Density Dependence in a Declining Farmland Bird.

    Jenny C Dunn

    Full Text Available Land management intrinsically influences the distribution of animals and can consequently alter the potential for density-dependent processes to act within populations. For declining species, high densities of breeding territories are typically considered to represent productive populations. However, as density-dependent effects of food limitation or predator pressure may occur (especially when species are dependent upon separate nesting and foraging habitats, high territory density may limit per-capita productivity. Here, we use a declining but widespread European farmland bird, the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella L., as a model system to test whether higher territory densities result in lower fledging success, parental provisioning rates or nestling growth rates compared to lower densities. Organic landscapes held higher territory densities, but nests on organic farms fledged fewer nestlings, translating to a 5 times higher rate of population shrinkage on organic farms compared to conventional. In addition, when parental provisioning behaviour was not restricted by predation risk (i.e., at times of low corvid activity, nestling provisioning rates were higher at lower territory densities, resulting in a much greater increase in nestling mass in low density areas, suggesting that food limitation occurred at high densities. These findings in turn suggest an ecological trap, whereby preferred nesting habitat does not provide sufficient food for rearing nestlings at high population density, creating a population sink. Habitat management for farmland birds should focus not simply on creating a high nesting density, but also on ensuring heterogeneous habitats to provide food resources in close proximity to nesting birds, even if this occurs through potentially restricting overall nest density but increasing population-level breeding success.

  3. Reclamation of prime farmland following mineral sands mining in Virginia

    Daniels, W.L.; Schroeder, P.D.; Nagle, S.M.; Zelazny, L.W.; Alley, M.M.

    1999-07-01

    Significant deposits of mineral sands were discovered in Virginia's Upper Coastal Plain in 1989. The Old Hickory deposit is the largest ore body in the state (>2,000 ha) and supports a productive rowcrop agriculture on prime farmlands. field experiments were installed on pilot-scale (25 m x 60 m) mining pits in the late summer of 1995 and replicated on an adjacent undisturbed area. Half of each mining pit was topsoiled (25 cm) while the remaining half was left as either (1) mixed tails/slimes or (2) re-graded subsoil over tails/slimes to simulate various pit closure scenarios. Both non-topsoiled areas received 112 Mg/ha of yard waste compost as a soil building amendment. The entire area was ripped/disked to ameliorate compaction and incorporate lime and fertilizer additions. The experiment was cropped through a wheat/soybeans/corn/cotton rotation over the 1995 to 1998 growing seasons. Taken as a whole, these combined results clearly indicate that mining and reclamation of these prime farmlands will lead to a substantial decrease in rowcrop productivity, at least over the initial years following pit closure and reclamation. For the rotation studied, post-mining productivity was estimated by this experiment to be reduced by 23%, 3%, 27%, and 20% for each crop (wheat/soybeans/corn/cotton) in sequence. For a given crop in a given year, response to topsoiling versus compost addition to the surface varied, and neither treatment appeared superior. Corn and cotton yields on the mined land treatments were reduced despite the application of irrigation. Cotton quality was also adversely affected by the mining reclamation treatments. Results of these controlled experiments are somewhat encouraging. However, the implementation of protocols will be complicated in practice if tailings and slimes cannot be re-blended to generate a reasonably uniform final reclaimed surface.

  4. Habitat-specific population growth of a farmland bird.

    Debora Arlt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log lambda(s: -0.332, -0.429, -0.168, respectively, that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log lambda(s: -0.056, +0.081, -0.059. Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands.

  5. An analysis of the effectiveness of a joint commodity and foreign exchange rate futures hedge: The case of a Canadian crude oil trader

    Klusa, L.J.

    1993-04-01

    This study focused on reducing risk for Canadian crude oil traders exposed to crude oil price and exchange rate uncertainty. Joint static and flow period hedges were developed and compared to unhedged positions and to naive and simple hedges. Optimal hedge ratio size and hedging effectiveness were identified for a variety of hedge lifting periods and durations. The in-sample results indicated that joint hedge models were more effective than other models in terms of minimizing the variance of returns. Out-of-sample results indicated that joint and simple commodity hedges were equally effective. Other findings included: shorter duration, close to expiry hedges were the most effective; the difference between the variability of spot and future price differences and their correlations were related to hedge ratio size; and a flow period hedge was the most effective hedge when spot prices were monthly average prices. 53 refs., 3 figs., 49 tabs

  6. SUPERIMPOSED MESH PLOTTING IN MCNP

    J. HENDRICKS

    2001-02-01

    The capability to plot superimposed meshes has been added to MCNP{trademark}. MCNP4C featured a superimposed mesh weight window generator which enabled users to set up geometries without having to subdivide geometric cells for variance reduction. The variance reduction was performed with weight windows on a rectangular or cylindrical mesh superimposed over the physical geometry. Experience with the new capability was favorable but also indicated that a number of enhancements would be very beneficial, particularly a means of visualizing the mesh and its values. The mathematics for plotting the mesh and its values is described here along with a description of other upgrades.

  7. The Relationship between Urban Sprawl and Farmland Displacement in the Pearl River Delta, China

    Shiqiang Du

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available China is rapidly urbanizing and will inevitably face trade-offs between promoting economic growth through further urbanization and protecting fertile farmland against accelerated urban expansion. This paper presents how this dilemma is being addressed in one of the most rapidly urbanizing regions in China, the Pearl River Delta (PRD, by means of assessing urban growth and farmland dynamic, as well as their complex relationships. Land use maps derived from Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and 2010 show a process of accelerated urban sprawl whereby built-up lands have more than quadrupled and scattered centers have merged into megacities. Nonetheless, the land use efficiency is considerably low and is declining relative to Hong Kong and Macau with respect to urban population density. On the other hand, the spreading of urban areas on farmlands causes new farmland reclamation and accelerated deforestation in the hilly surroundings. In addition, the displaced farmlands do not ensure food production because of both reclaiming farmlands on infertile lands and diversifying farming activities from grain production to market-oriented ones. The accelerated urbanization and farmland displacement are driven by profit-oriented development strategy and ineffective land use planning. Our findings demonstrate how spatial analysis can help to investigate the integrated effects of land policies on landscape.

  8. The Impacts on Illegal Farmland Conversion of Adopting Remote Sensing Technology for Land Inspection in China

    Taiyang Zhong

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available While China’s central government has adopted remote sensing technology in land inspection since 2000, little empirical research has been done on its effect. This study aims to measure the effect of satellite imagery-based land inspection (SIBI on illegal farmland conversion. The data used in this study were collected for the period from 1997 to 2010 at the province-level. The econometrics approach for panel data model was used in this research. The results showed that SIBI has a deterrent effect of approximately 2.42 ha for every increase of 1% in proportion to the area of prefecture-level regions inspected in a province-level region. The results also indicate land inspections with RS (Remote Sensing technology saved approximately 11,880 ha farmland from illegal conversion during 2000–2010 with an estimated contribution of reducing illegal farmland conversion by nearly 11%. Furthermore, the governance structure change for land inspection has also contributed to deterring illegal farmland conversion. The deterrent effects due to land inspection by the Supervisor of State Land (SSL are about 7332 ha during 2008–2010 with an estimated contribution of reducing illegal farmland conversion by nearly 33%. In conclusion, although SIBI has strengthened China’s central capacity to uncover illegal farmland conversion and weakened local governments’ abilities to hide illegal farmland conversion, it has limited impact on illegal farmland conversion since it is just a technical tool. Improvements in the land inspection governance structure have also helped to deter illegal farmland conversion.

  9. The international research progress of Ammonia(NH3) emissions and emissions reduction technology in farmland ecosystem

    Yang, W. Z.; Jiao, Y.

    2017-03-01

    NH3 is the important factor leading to the grey haze, and one of the main causes of environmental problems of serious ecological imbalance, such as acid rain and air quality deterioration. The fertilizer excessive application of the current farmland results NH3 emissions intensity greatly. In order to clear the farmland NH3 emissions research status and achievements, the literature of farmland NH3 emission related were retrievaled by the SCI journals and Chinese science citation database. Some factors of NH3 emission were analyzed such as soil factors, climate factors and farmland management measures. The research progress was inductived on farmland NH3 emission reduction technology. The results will help to clarify farmland NH3 emissions research progress. The theoretical guidance was provided on the future of farmland NH3 emissions research.

  10. Hedging Rules for Water Supply Reservoir Based on the Model of Simulation and Optimization

    Yi Ji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a hedging rule model which is composed of a two-period reservior operation model considering the damage depth and hedging rule parameter optimization model. The former solves hedging rules based on a given poriod’s water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target, while the latter optimization model is used to optimize the weighting factor and carryover storage target based on the hedging rules. The coupling model gives the optimal poriod’s water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target to guide release. The conclusions achieved from this study as follows: (1 the water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target have a direct impact on the three elements of the hedging rule; (2 parameters can guide reservoirs to supply water reasonably after optimization of the simulation and optimization model; and (3 in order to verify the utility of the hedging rule, the Heiquan reservoir is used as a case study and particle swarm optimization algorithm with a simulation model is adopted for optimizing the parameter. The results show that the proposed hedging rule can improve the operation performances of the water supply reservoir.

  11. Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

    Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

  12. Hedging with futures contracts in the Brazilian soybean complex: BM&F vs. CBOT

    Andréia Regina O. da Silva

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the effectiveness of hedging Brazilian soy oil, soy meal, and soybeans in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT and in the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&F to reduce the risk of financial loss due to commodity price fluctuations. The econometric results show that a cross-hedging strategy using the BM&F soybean futures contract is an instrument of low effectiveness for managing soy oil and soy meal price risk. Despite low effectiveness, the estimates demonstrate total advantage for soy meal hedging operations using CBOT soy meal futures contracts rather than cross-hedging using BM&F soybean futures contracts. With some exceptions, the results are also more favorable for hedging soy oil with soy oil futures contracts at the CBOT rather than cross hedging with soybeans at the BM&F. Conversely, Brazilian traders hedging soybeans receive more effective risk protection by trading soybean futures contracts at the BM&F than by trading soybean futures contracts at the CBOT.

  13. Assessing the ecological state and managing Armenia's farmlands

    Saghatelyan, Armen; Asmaryan, Shushanik; Muradyan, Vahagn; Tepanosyan, Garegin; Minasyan, Lilit

    2014-05-01

    The territory of the Republic of Armenia (RA) occupies an area 29.8 sq. km, the major part of which - 2077 hectares - falls on farmlands located at a height 400-3200m a.s.l. Such a variation in altitude complicates development of territories especially in the case they have an extensive character stemmed from the Soviet era: land plough-up on sites lying at a very steep angle of decline - >20 grade, unregulated grazing and so on. A long-term, unplanned and unregulated use of farmlands entailed intense washout of upper soil horizon, which subsequently provoked intense development of erosion and degradation of lands. A practicable solution to this problem is a scientifically and methodically grounded assessment of ecological state of farmlands and economically 'competent' planning and management of agricultural resources. With the view of developing animal husbandry and managing pastures/hayfields, in 2011-2012 the Government of the Republic of Armenia under support of the World Bank implemented a Farm Resources Management and Competitiveness Program. The goal of the Program is ceasing a trend to overgrazing and degradation of close-to-village sites, using remote pastures/hayfields in the best effective manner, improving feed production and animal feeding networks, and promoting a growth in animal feed production volumes. To achieve that, the following works were planned and implemented successfully in 23 rural communities of 6 marzes of the RA, which was done by 3 stages. In preparatory stage • Accessible web resources - programs and sites (Google Earth, www.landcocer.org) with a view of identifying information to support implementation of the planned activities, were explored and evaluated. • Cartographic material (topographic maps sc.1:10000, landscape maps, panchromatic and multi-spectral high- and medium - resolution satellite images /LANDSAT ETM, QuickBird/ and other thematic cartographic and archival material) required for subsequent treatment of

  14. A Two-Step Approach for Analytical Optimal Hedging with Two Triggers

    Tiesong Hu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Hedging is widely used to mitigate severe water shortages in the operation of reservoirs during droughts. Rationing is usually instituted with one hedging policy, which is based only on one trigger, i.e., initial storage level or current water availability. It may perform poorly in balancing the benefits of a release during the current period versus those of carryover storage during future droughts. This study proposes a novel hedging rule to improve the efficiency of a reservoir operated to supply water, in which, based on two triggers, hedging is initiated with three different hedging sub-rules through a two-step approach. In the first step, the sub-rule is triggered based on the relationship between the initial reservoir storage level and the level of the target rule curve or the firm rule curve at the end of the current period. This step is mainly concerned with increasing the water level or not in the current period. Hedging is then triggered under the sub-rule based on current water availability in the second step, in which the trigger implicitly considers both initial and ending reservoir storage levels in the current period. Moreover, the amount of hedging is analytically derived based on the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT conditions. In addition, the hedging parameters are optimized using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm coupled with a rule-based simulation. A single water-supply reservoir located in Hubei Province in central China is selected as a case study. The operation results show that the proposed rule is reasonable and significantly improves the reservoir operation performance for both long-term and critical periods relative to other operation policies, such as the standard operating policy (SOP and the most commonly used hedging rules.

  15. Dynamically Hedging Oil and Currency Futures Using Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming

    Cottrell, Paul Edward

    There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

  16. Risk of Agricultural Practices and Habitat Change to Farmland Birds

    David Anthony. Kirk

    2011-06-01

    addition of 63 m of hedgerow could increase abundance and richness of short distance migrants by 50% (3.0 to 4.8 and 1.3 to 2.0, respectively. Increasing the proportion of hay on nonorganic farms to 50% could increase abundance of primary grassland bird by 40% (6.7 to 9.4. Our results provide support for alternative farmland designs and agricultural management systems that could enhance select bird species in farmland.

  17. Hedging LDC price risk in the futures market

    Trace, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    During its first five months the natural gas futures market has seen steady growth and increasing participation by various industry players, particularly producers, marketers, and brokers. Not much has been heard, however, about participation by the principal retailers of the gas industry, the local distribution companies (LDCs). Undoubtedly, various LDCs are now in the process of determining whether or not the gas futures market can serve any useful business purpose in their operations. In examining this question LDCs should keep in mind that the futures market should serve the same purpose for them as it does for any other business engaged in the actual buying and selling of price-volatile commodities - mitigation of price risk. This article looks at the risks of the market, gives examples of investments to hedge risks and looks at the overall performance of the market

  18. Sellers' hedging incentives at EPA's emission trading auction

    Dijkstra, B.R.; Haan, M

    1999-01-01

    Cason (1993) argued that the auction the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency in the USA) used in order to start the market for sulfur allowances, is not efficient. The set-up of the auction gives both buyers and sellers an incentive to understate their valuation of an allowance. In this paper, we show that the sellers' incentives are even more perverse than Cason suggested. In particular, we show that sellers have an incentive to set their ask price equal to zero, while simultaneously hedging their bets by submitting a positive bid. It is not possible to derive the Nash equilibrium for this set-up. If such an equilibrium exists, sellers either set only a positive ask price, or an ask price equal to zero, and a positive bid as well. 14 refs

  19. TRANSPORT OUTSOURCING AND TRANSPORT COLLABORATION RELATIONSHIP - THE RISK HEDGING PERSPECTIVE

    Đurđica M. Stojanović

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Although transport outsourcing decision-making and collaborative transport management (CTM have been “hot topics” for years, their links are still not thoroughly explored. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between them. In particular, we focus on the conflicting and complementary features of these concepts with regard to their capability to hedge against transport outsourcing-related risks. Transport outsourcing is often a tool for transferring part of the demand risks from the primary parties in supply chains to transport service providers. However, new relationships introduce some new risks - outsourcing contract risks. It is important to identify, estimate and compare such kinds of risks. Transport collaboration may decrease both the demand risks and the outsourcing contract risks, although the relationship with the latter is more complex. It is used an exploratory research based on a combination of a literature review and empirical examples.

  20. Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

    Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

    2015-01-01

    –Jarrow–Morton approach, we derive a closed-form option pricing formula for energy quanto options under the assumption that the underlying assets are lognormally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive Delta and Gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options has increased significantly in recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature. They are suited to managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using a Heath...... expressions for hedging. Further, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NewYork Mercantile Exchange-traded natural gas futures and Chicago Mercantile Exchange-traded heating degree days futures for NewYork....

  1. Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

    Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

    approach we derive a closed form option pricing formula for energy quanto options, under the assumption that the underlying assets are log-normally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive delta and gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options have increased significantly in the recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature and are suited for managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using an HJM...... expressions for hedging. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NYMEX traded natural gas futures and CME traded Heating Degree Days futures for New York....

  2. Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade

    Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska

    2016-01-01

    Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions. - Highlights: •We use the stochastic variant of the multi-period Global Gas Model. •We investigate the effects of uncertainty in Russian exports, demand, and shale gas. •We find that LNG is preferred as hedging option in anticipation of uncertain events. •Pipelines may be chosen as recourse decision after uncertain events realized. •China will dominate the global natural gas market regardless the scenario.

  3. Bet-hedging response to environmental variability, an intraspecific comparison.

    Nevoux, Marie; Forcada, Jaume; Barbraud, Christophe; Croxall, John; Weimerskirchi, Henri

    2010-08-01

    A major challenge in ecology is to understand the impact of increased environmental variability on populations and ecosystems. To maximize their fitness in a variable environment, life history theory states that individuals should favor a bet-hedging strategy, involving a reduction of annual breeding performance and an increase in adult survival so that reproduction can be attempted over more years. As a result, evolution toward longer life span is expected to reduce the deleterious effects of extra variability on population growth, and consequently on the trait contributing the most to it (e.g., adult survival in long-lived species). To investigate this, we compared the life histories of two Black-browed Albatross (Thalassarche melanophrys) populations breeding at South Georgia (Atlantic Ocean) and Kerguelen (Indian Ocean), the former in an environment nearly three times more variable climatically (e.g., in sea surface temperature) than the latter. As predicted, individuals from South Georgia (in the more variable environment) showed significantly higher annual adult survival (0.959, SE = 0.003) but lower annual reproductive success (0.285 chick per pair, SE = 0.039) than birds from Kerguelen (survival = 0.925, SE = 0.004; breeding success = 0.694, SE = 0.027). In both populations, climatic conditions affected the breeding success and the survival of inexperienced breeders, whereas the survival of experienced breeders was unaffected. The strength of the climatic impact on survival of inexperienced breeders was very similar between the two populations, but the effect on breeding success was positively related to environmental variability. These results provide rare and compelling evidence to support bet-hedging underlying changes in life history traits as an adaptive response to environmental variability.

  4. Policy framework for sustainable utilisation of farmland for the Waterberg District Municipality in South Africa

    Nhemachena, C

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study crafts a policy framework for sustainable utilisation of farmland for the Waterberg District Municipality in South Africa. The district, being predominantly agricultural and rural, faces contention in terms of land allocation...

  5. Landscape composition influences farm management effects on farmland birds in winter: A pan-European approach

    Geiger, F.; Snoo, de G.R.; Berendse, F.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the effects of agricultural intensity, various farming practices, landscape composition and vegetation cover on the abundance and species richness of wintering farmland birds, assessed simultaneously across seven European regions. The abundance and species richness of wintering

  6. A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands ...

    A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands: Implications for the management of plant biodiversity along differential environmental gradient in the Yellow River of Henan Province in the spring.

  7. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management: A Tilt towards Real Hedging

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  8. Operações de Hedge no Agronegócio - Uma Análise Baseada no Hedging Accounting'

    Maria Jose de Camargo Machado De Zen

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available O mercado de derivativos vem ganhando importância no contexto econômico mundial, demandando procedimentos contábeis que evidenciem corretamente os riscos e os benefícios envolvidos em tais operações. Desta maneira, este artigo mostra e discute aspectos da contabilização de operações de hedge, utilizando como base para análise, dois instrumentos utilizados com a finalidade de hedge no agronegócio brasileiro: a Cédula de Produto Rural (CPR e os contratos futuros agropecuários. Através de pesquisa bibliográfica, foram estudados os procedimentos do Hedging Accounting, segundo a normatização do FASB, e da CVM. Através do desenvolvimento de um exemplo teórico foram analisados e discutidos estes procedimentos, comparando as divergências de critérios entre as normas dos dois órgãos citados, e o impacto destes na análise das demonstrações financeiras tanto do produtor rural como da agroindústria. Esta análise demonstra que há divergências significativas na evidenciação destes instrumentos, principalmente dos contratos futuros, entre as normas analisadas. Ja para a CPR, foi proposta uma contabilização segundo o conceito de "derivativo embutido", conceito este contemplado pelo próprio FASB para alguns contratos com características híbridas. Existe uma necessidade de adequação das normas da CVM ao FASB, visto a importância de evidenciar estas operações no "corpo"do balanço, tanto no aspecto de exposição ao risco, como para a comparando de estratégias diferentes de proteção. No entanto, analisando somente dois títulos, fica evidente a dificuldade da adequação das normas brasileiras ao FASB.

  9. Did the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 Affect Farmland Values?

    Charles B. Moss

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Farmland values are affected by numerous factors, including farm policy, shifts in demand for agricultural output both foreign and domestic, monetary policy and urban pressure. In this study we use an information measure to examine whether the shift toward a more market-oriented policy in 1996 changed the relationship between farmland values and government payments. The results indicated that the shift in agricultural policy resulted in significant shift in this relationship.

  10. Hedging effectiveness and volatility models for crude oil market: a dynamic approach; Modelos de volatilidade e a efetividade do hedge no mercado de petroleo: um abordagem dinamica

    Salles, Andre Assis de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    The hedge strategies allow negotiators that have short and long positions in the market protection against price fluctuations. This paper examines the performance of bivariate volatility models for the crude oil spot and future returns of the Western Texas Intermediate - WTI type barrel prices. Besides the volatility of spot and future crude oil barrel returns time series, the hedge ratio strategy is examined through the hedge effectiveness. Thus this study shows hedge strategies built using methodologies applied in the variance modeling of returns of crude oil prices in the spot and future markets, and covariance between these two market returns, which correspond to the inputs of the hedge strategy shown in this work. From the studied models the bivariate GARCH in a Diagonal VECH and BEKK representations was chosen, using three different models for the mean: a bivariate autoregressive, a vector autoregressive and a vector error correction. The methodologies used here take into consideration the denial of assumptions of homoscedasticity and normality for the return distributions. The data used is logarithm returns of daily prices quoted in dollars per barrel from November 2008 to May 2010 for spot and future contracts, in particular the June contract. (author)

  11. Impact of coal mining subsidence on farmland in eastern China

    Hu, Z.; Hu, F.; Li, J.; Li, H.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses damage characteristics of farmland due to coal mining subsidence in eastern China. The landscape of the mining subsidence trough has been divided into three zones; central zone, trough margin zone an dinner-edge zone. Each zone had a specific characteristic of deformation. The water accumulation, prone (downward sloping) land and fissures are typical damage characteristics of the subsidence landscape in eastern China. Based on soils analysis at different positions of the subsidence trough, the impact of mining subsidence on soil properties was identified. The physical properties of soil sensitive to mining subsidence were bulk density, water content and hydraulic conductivity, and they showed worsening form the top to the centre of the subsidence trough. Except for soil electrical conductivity, the tested soil chemical properties were not so sensitive to mining subsidence. They may however change after subsidence. An accumulation of salt was found in both new and old subsidence areas and the old subsidence area had a higher salt content. The soil biomass C in newly subsided land showed a decreasing trend from the top to the centre of the subsidence trough, but no obvious trend was observed in the old subsidence areas. Based on the soil analysis of subsided land, soil erosion was identified as a serious problem, most severe in the middle of the prone land. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  12. A comparison of techniques for assessing farmland bumblebee populations.

    Wood, T J; Holland, J M; Goulson, D

    2015-04-01

    Agri-environment schemes have been implemented across the European Union in order to reverse declines in farmland biodiversity. To assess the impact of these schemes for bumblebees, accurate measures of their populations are required. Here, we compared bumblebee population estimates on 16 farms using three commonly used techniques: standardised line transects, coloured pan traps and molecular estimates of nest abundance. There was no significant correlation between the estimates obtained by the three techniques, suggesting that each technique captured a different aspect of local bumblebee population size and distribution in the landscape. Bumblebee abundance as observed on the transects was positively influenced by the number of flowers present on the transect. The number of bumblebees caught in pan traps was positively influenced by the density of flowers surrounding the trapping location and negatively influenced by wider landscape heterogeneity. Molecular estimates of the number of nests of Bombus terrestris and B. hortorum were positively associated with the proportion of the landscape covered in oilseed rape and field beans. Both direct survey techniques are strongly affected by floral abundance immediately around the survey site, potentially leading to misleading results if attempting to infer overall abundance in an area or on a farm. In contrast, whilst the molecular method suffers from an inability to detect sister pairs at low sample sizes, it appears to be unaffected by the abundance of forage and thus is the preferred survey technique.

  13. MatrixPlot: visualizing sequence constraints

    Gorodkin, Jan; Stærfeldt, Hans Henrik; Lund, Ole

    1999-01-01

    MatrixPlot: visualizing sequence constraints. Sub-title Abstract Summary : MatrixPlot is a program for making high-quality matrix plots, such as mutual information plots of sequence alignments and distance matrices of sequences with known three-dimensional coordinates. The user can add information...

  14. Adrenal activity in maned wolves is higher on farmlands and park boundaries than within protected areas.

    Spercoski, Katherinne M; Morais, Rosana N; Morato, Ronaldo G; de Paula, Rogério C; Azevedo, Fernanda C; May-Júnior, Joares A; Santos, Jean P; Reghelin, Angela L; Wildt, David E; Songsasen, Nucharin

    2012-11-01

    In this study we measured excreted fecal corticoid metabolites (FCM) in maned wolves (Chrysocyon brachyurus) living within a protected reserve, on farmlands or in a boundary zone between the two habitats, and determined the impacts of season and reproductive status on adrenal activity. Feces were collected within a national park (n=191 samples), a park boundary zone (n=39) and on nearby farmlands (n=27), processed and analyzed by enzyme immunoassay. FCM amounts from samples collected on farmlands were higher (Pwolf pairs were raising young. We then divided the samples collected during breeding season (March-August) into cycling females and male/non-cycling females based on fecal progesterone: fecal testosterone ratio. FCM concentrations of the former collected inside the park were higher than (P<0.05) than the latter group. However, there were no differences in FCM levels between the two groups for samples collected in the boundary zone and on farmlands. Furthermore, FCM concentrations of male/non-cycling females samples collected on farmlands were 2- to 5-fold higher (P<0.05) than in counterparts collected inside the park. The consistently high FCM concentrations in samples collected on farmlands indicate that, in addition to seasonality, gender and reproductive status, anthropogenic pressures also contribute to elevating adrenal steroid for individuals living in altered habitat. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Occurrence of perchlorate in groundwater, paired farmland soil, lettuce, and rhizosphere soil from Chengdu, China.

    Tang, Yulu; Zhong, Bifeng; Qu, Bing; Feng, Shujin; Ding, Sanglan; Su, Shijun; Li, Zhi; Gan, Zhiwei

    2017-05-24

    A total of 28 groundwater, paired farmland soil, lettuce, and its rhizosphere soil samples were collected from Chengdu, China to detect perchlorate levels and to evaluate the relationships of perchlorate concentrations among these matrices. The perchlorate concentrations in the groundwater, farmland soil, lettuce, and rhizosphere soil samples ranged from below detection limit to 60.2 μg L -1 , from below detection limit to 249 μg kg -1 dry weight (dw), from 2.07 to 1010 μg kg -1 wet weight, and from below detection limit to 314 μg kg -1 dw, respectively. Significant correlation was found in the perchlorate levels among the farmland soil, lettuce, and rhizosphere soil, suggesting that they have common pollution sources, or perchlorate might transfer from farmland soil-rhizosphere soil-plant. However, there is no significant correlation between groundwater and the other three matrices, indicating that infiltration from perchlorate contaminated farmland soil was not the predominant source for groundwater pollution in Chengdu. The perchlorate concentrations in the farmland soil and lettuce samples were significantly higher than those in the rhizosphere soil, primarily due to uptake of perchlorate through the rhizosphere micro-environment by lettuce, or accelerated degradation by rhizospheric microorganisms, which contributed more needs further investigation.

  16. Risk preference, option pricing and portfolio hedging with proportional transaction costs

    Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Scaling is a key factor in option pricing. • The model is theoretically analyzed and the results are new. • Some numerical examples are performed. • The implied-volatility-frown is affected by the risk preference and scaling. - Abstract: This paper is concerned in the option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case with the proportional transaction costs. Through the Monte Carlo simulations it has been shown that the fractal scaling and risk preference of traders have an important influence on the hedging performances in both option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case. In addition, the relation between preference of traders and implied volatility frown is discussed. We conclude that the risk preferences of traders play an important role in determining the shape of the implied-volatility-frown and the different options having the different hedging frequencies is another reason for the implied volatility frown.

  17. Nuclear Zpif-type plots

    Ma Yugang

    2000-01-01

    Isospin dependent classical molecular dynamics model is used to investigate the nuclear disassembly of 129 Xe. Zpif-type plot in the field of linguistics is tested for the rank-classified cluster arrangement from this nuclear disassembly. It is found that the average cluster charge (or mass) of rank n in the charge (or mass) list is exactly inverse to its rank, i.e. there exists Zpif's law at the point of the liquid gas phase transition. This novel criterion can be used to diagnose the nuclear liquid gas phase transition experimentally and theoretically

  18. ABCASH plotting program users guide

    Troyer, G.L.

    1995-01-01

    The Automated Bar Coding of Air Samples at Hanford (ABCASH) system provides an integrated data collection, sample tracking, and data reporting system for radioactive particulate air filter samples. The ABCASH plotting program provides a graphical trend report for ABCASH of the performance of air sample results. This document provides an operational guide for using the program. Based on sample location identifier and date range, a trend chart of the available data is generated. The trend chart shows radiological activity versus time. General indications of directional trend of the concentrations in air over time may be discerned. Comparison limit set point values are also shown as derived from the ABCASH data base

  19. The Regional Special Operations Headquarters: Franchising the NATO Model as a Hedge in Lean Times

    2012-04-01

    1 AIR FORCE FELLOWS AIR UNIVERSITY THE REGIONAL SPECIAL OPERATIONS HEADQUARTERS: FRANCHISING THE NATO MODEL AS A HEDGE IN LEAN...Headquarters: Franchising The NATO Model As A Hedge In Lean Times 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...it is not copyrighted, but is the property of the United States government. 3 The Regional Special Operations Headquarters: Franchising the

  20. The Application of backward stochastic differential equation with stopping time in hedging American contingent claims

    Wang Bo; Song Ruili

    2009-01-01

    We consider a more general wealth process with a drift coefficient which is Lipschitz continuous and the portfolio process with convex constraint. We convert the problem of hedging American contingent claims into the problem of minimal solution of backward stochastic differential equation with stopping time. We adopt the penalization method for constructing the minimal solution of stochastic differential equations and obtain the upper hedging price of American contingent claims.

  1. Testing Commodities as Safe Haven and Hedging Instrument on ASEAN's Five Stock Markets

    Robiyanto, Robiyanto

    2017-01-01

    This study attempts to analyze commodity market instruments such as gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s potential as hedge and safe haven toward some stock markets in South East Asia such as in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. To analyze the data, GARCH (1,1) was applied. The research findings showed that gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and WTI could not play their role as hedging instrument for five South East Asi...

  2. The effects of liquidity and share restrictions on hedge fund performance in bull and bear markets

    El-Alawa, Y. (Yasmin)

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Hedge funds are increasingly becoming a popular alternative investment vehicle. They are much more flexible and can freely choose from a pool of investment strategies due to their limited regulations. This gives them the flexibility to exploit opportunities in order to generate high returns at low risk. In order to have access to the freedom and flexibility to engage in different investment strategies, hedge funds ...

  3. An Empirical Study on Hedge Fund Portfolio Optimization, Mean-Risk Based Approaches

    Li, Yang

    2011-01-01

    Abstract This research attempts to investigate the divergences between the Mean-Variance and the Mean-CVaR portfolio optimization methods in examining various assets classes, such as equities, bonds, and especially hedge funds. In order to get a thorough understanding of hedge funds facts and available optimization techniques, relevant literatures are carefully reviewed and incorporated into later stage computer modelling. By constructing three hypothetical portfolios, including traditiona...

  4. (IAM Series No 004) Highwaymen or Heroes: Should Hedge Funds be Regulated?

    Jean-Pierre Zigrand; Ashley Taylor; Jon Danielsson

    2004-01-01

    The exponential growth of hedge funds, their role in financial crises in the 1990s, and examples of fraudulent behaviour have precipitated a heated debate over their regulatory status. The existing approaches of greater disclosure and activity restrictions appear too blunt to be effective and may stifle the benefits hedge funds can bring to the financial system. But, even the remote possibility of a systemic crisis weighs against no regulation. If reform is delayed until after a crisis it is ...

  5. Socio-cognitive aspects of hedging in two legal discourse genres

    Holly Vass

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available While there are many studies on hedging in a wide variety of disciplinary discourses, the field of Law, to date, has been largely overlooked. Moreover, most research on hedging approaches the phenomenon from either a textual or pragmatic perspective, and tends to compare the same genre across disciplines. By contrast, the objective of this study was to analyse hedging in two legal written discourse genres, namely U.S. Supreme Court opinions and American law review articles, from a comprehensive, socio-cognitive, intra-disciplinary perspective. Due to the essential roles of intuition and hedging competence in the identification of hedges, qualitative data gathering and interpretation techniques were used. Results indicate that differences between the two genres can be linked to certain prototypical features of the genres themselves, particularly context and communicative purposes. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that hedging is in fact genre-specific, at least insofar as legal genres are concerned. Further comparative research must be done to determine if the same is true in other fields as well.

  6. Myxomatosis in farmland rabbit populations in England and Wales.

    Ross, J; Tittensor, A M; Fox, A P; Sanders, M F

    1989-10-01

    The overall pattern and consequences of myxomatosis in wild rabbit populations were studied at three farmland sites in lowland southern England and upland central Wales between 1971 and 1978. When results from all years were combined, the disease showed a clear two-peaked annual cycle, with a main autumn peak between August and January, and a subsidiary spring peak during February to April. Rabbit fleas, the main vectors of myxomatosis in Britain, were present on full-grown rabbits in sufficient numbers for transmission to occur throughout the year, but the observed seasonal pattern of the disease appeared to be influenced by seasonal mass movements of these fleas. However other factors were also important including the timing and success of the main rabbit breeding season, the proportion of rabbits which had recovered from the disease and the timing and extent of autumn rabbit mortality from other causes. Significantly more males than females, and more adults and immatures than juveniles, were observed to be infected by myxomatosis. Only 25-27% of the total populations were seen to be infected during outbreaks. Using two independent methods of calculation, it was estimated that between 47 and 69% of infected rabbits died from the disease (much lower than the expected 90-95% for fully susceptible rabbits with the partly attenuated virus strains that predominated). Thus it was estimated that 12-19% of the total rabbit populations were known to have died directly or indirectly from myxomatosis. Although the effects of myxomatosis were much less than during the 1950s and 1960s, it continued to be an important mortality factor. It may still have a regulatory effect on rabbit numbers, with autumn/winter peaks of disease reducing the numbers of rabbits present at the start of the breeding season.

  7. Sacrifice as a plot device

    Ashikhmanova Natalya Alexandrovna

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available It is considered the plot device “sacrifice” as a meaningful component of the narrative. It sets a minimum of substantive meaning of this formation (the idea of getting something over the loss of something. The main types of sacrifice: sacrifice and self-sacrifice. Sacrifice means bringing something to sacrifice for the sake of an idea or someone else and implies a greater degree of external attributes. Self-sacrifice brings a loss of the intrinsic value of the character. Sacrifice as the action takes place consciously and, as a rule, does not require compensation in return. Victims sacrifice not only material things but spiritual as well. Their actions are certainly driven by the idea, which is of value. In the case of self-sacrifice victim is itself a victim. Present for sacrifice plays a certain role in the development of some of the stories of fabulous narratives. Search of the present can be a starting point in the development of fantastic narrative plot. As a sacrifice the present can be considered in three forms: in the form of material expression, in the form of immaterial substance, as well as a way to transfer the character into magical power through knowledge empowerment of its formulaic spells.

  8. Study on the expectation differences between the both sides of farmland transfer at the level of farmer

    Yang, Liyong; Liu, Dejiang; Qiu, Cheng; Wu, Xianhua

    2017-12-01

    The expected consistency between the both sides of farmland transfer is the key to the success or failure of transfer. We use the participatory rural appraisal method, carry out a questionnaire survey of farmers in Yunnan Province, and analysis empirically the expectation differences on the will, price, duration, objects and contract between the both sides of farmland transfer. The research shows that: farmers in the suburban village tend to be willing to transfer out rather than transfer in, while farmers in the outer suburbs village tend to prefer to transfer in rather than transfer out. They are relatively small in the expectation of will, duration, objects and contract between the both sides of farmland transfer, and the transfer price "gap" is the most important factor that impedes the farmland transfer. Measures should be taken to promote the farmland transfer from three aspects, such as the promotion of farmland protection regulations, the establishment and improvement of transfer institutions and the opening of transfer price.

  9. Influences of Different Land Use Spatial Control Schemes on Farmland Conversion and Urban Development

    Zhou, Min; Tan, Shukui; Zhang, Lu

    2015-01-01

    Land use planning is always officially implemented as an effective tool to control urban development and protect farmland. However, its impact on land use change remains untested in China. Using a case study of Hang-Jia-Hu region, the main objective of this paper was to investigate the influence of different land use spatial control schemes on farmland conversion and urban development. Comparisons of farmland conversion and urban development patterns between the urban planning area and the non-urban planning area were characterized by using remote sensing, geographical information systems, and landscape metrics. Results indicated that farmland conversion in the non-urban planning area was more intensive than that in the urban planning area, and that farmland patterns was more fragmented in the non-urban planning area. Built-up land patterns in the non-urban planning area showed a trend of aggregation, while those in the urban planning area had a dual trend of fragmentation and aggregation. Existing built-up areas had less influence on built-up land sprawl in the non-urban planning area than that in the urban planning area. Built-up land sprawl in the form of continuous development in the urban planning area led to farmland conversion; and in the non-urban planning area, built-up land sprawl in the form of leapfrogging development resulted in farmland areal declines and fragmentation. We argued that it is a basic requirement to integrate land use plans in urban and non-urban planning areas for land use planning and management. PMID:25915897

  10. Influences of different land use spatial control schemes on farmland conversion and urban development.

    Zhou, Min; Tan, Shukui; Zhang, Lu

    2015-01-01

    Land use planning is always officially implemented as an effective tool to control urban development and protect farmland. However, its impact on land use change remains untested in China. Using a case study of Hang-Jia-Hu region, the main objective of this paper was to investigate the influence of different land use spatial control schemes on farmland conversion and urban development. Comparisons of farmland conversion and urban development patterns between the urban planning area and the non-urban planning area were characterized by using remote sensing, geographical information systems, and landscape metrics. Results indicated that farmland conversion in the non-urban planning area was more intensive than that in the urban planning area, and that farmland patterns was more fragmented in the non-urban planning area. Built-up land patterns in the non-urban planning area showed a trend of aggregation, while those in the urban planning area had a dual trend of fragmentation and aggregation. Existing built-up areas had less influence on built-up land sprawl in the non-urban planning area than that in the urban planning area. Built-up land sprawl in the form of continuous development in the urban planning area led to farmland conversion; and in the non-urban planning area, built-up land sprawl in the form of leapfrogging development resulted in farmland areal declines and fragmentation. We argued that it is a basic requirement to integrate land use plans in urban and non-urban planning areas for land use planning and management.

  11. Rural communities’ vulnerability to farmland poverty in varied ecological settings of northwest Ethiopia

    Menberu Teshome

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental and climate changes are among the serious threats to the world’s land resources in the 21st Century. Particularly, in the developing countries the impact inevitably goes as the continuing toll on agricultural production, human lives, and properties. It is also a driving force of poverty and impediment of overall economic development in many less developed nations, like Ethiopia. Therefore, this paper assesses the rural communities’ vulnerability to farmland poverty in different ecological settings of northwest Ethiopia. Data were collected from 525 randomly selected farming households using questionnaire. Meteorological data were collected from Global Weather Data for soil and water assessment tool (SWAT from 1979 to 2010. Rainfall and temperature trends were characterized using simple linear regression model. Rural communities’ vulnerability to farmland poverty was determined using livelihood vulnerability index (LVI. Indices were constructed using simple and weighted average approaches to measure farmlands’ exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Overall communities’ levels of vulnerability to farmlands poverty were found to be 0.76 in the lowland, 0.57 in the flat highland and 0.51 in the midland areas. In almost all indicators the lowland (Abay Valley is more vulnerable to farmland-related troubles as the biophysical and socio-economic contexts were found to be the worst there. Communities and government and non-government officials have observed significant negative impacts of drought and extreme weather events on farmlands, pasturelands with declining availability, productivity and quality of farmlands. This study suggests education and research interventions for enhancing community-based participatory integrated watershed management approach supported with best indigenous knowledge and farmers’ practices. Adaptation interventions should also consider local communities’ resource capacity (low

  12. Adaptation of bird communities to farmland abandonment in a mountain landscape.

    João Lopes Guilherme

    Full Text Available Widespread farmland abandonment has led to significant landscape transformations of many European mountain areas. These semi-natural multi-habitat landscapes are important reservoirs of biodiversity and their abandonment has important conservation implications. In multi-habitat landscapes the adaptation of communities depends on the differential affinity of the species to the available habitats. We use nested species-area relationships (SAR to model species richness patterns of bird communities across scales in a mountain landscape, in NW Portugal. We compare the performance of the classic-SAR and the countryside-SAR (i.e. multi-habitat models at the landscape scale, and compare species similarity decay (SSD at the regional scale. We find a considerable overlap of bird communities in the different land-uses (farmland, shrubland and oak forest at the landscape scale. Analysis of the classic and countryside SAR show that specialist species are strongly related to their favourite habitat. Farmland and shrubland have higher regional SSD compared to oak forests. However, this is due to the opportunistic use of farmlands by generalist birds. Forest specialists display significant regional turnover in oak forest. Overall, the countryside-SAR model had a better fit to the data showing that habitat composition determines species richness across scales. Finally, we use the countryside-SAR model to forecast bird diversity under four scenarios of land-use change. Farmland abandonment scenarios show little impact on bird diversity as the model predicts that the complete loss of farmland is less dramatic, in terms of species diversity loss, than the disappearance of native Galicio-Portuguese oak forest. The affinities of species to non-preferred habitats suggest that bird communities can adapt to land-use changes derived from farmland abandonment. Based on model predictions we argue that rewilding may be a suitable management option for many European mountain

  13. Exploring the Factors Driving Seasonal Farmland Abandonment: A Case Study at the Regional Level in Hunan Province, Central China

    Yu, Zhonglei; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Hua; Liang, Jinshe

    2017-01-01

    Farmland abandonment, including perennial and seasonal abandonment, is an important process of land use change that matters most to food security. Although there is a great deal of studies on farmland abandonment, seasonal abandonment, which is as serious as perennial abandonment, has attracted little academic attention. This paper takes Hunan Province in central China as its study area and uses a spatial regression model to examine the driving factors of seasonal farmland abandonment at the ...

  14. Exploring the Factors Driving Seasonal Farmland Abandonment: A Case Study at the Regional Level in Hunan Province, Central China

    Zhonglei Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Farmland abandonment, including perennial and seasonal abandonment, is an important process of land use change that matters most to food security. Although there is a great deal of studies on farmland abandonment, seasonal abandonment, which is as serious as perennial abandonment, has attracted little academic attention. This paper takes Hunan Province in central China as its study area and uses a spatial regression model to examine the driving factors of seasonal farmland abandonment at the county level. Our results show that farmland abandonment has striking spatial relativity, and there are two clustering zones with a high index of farmland abandonment (IFA in the Dongting plain and the basin in south-central Hunan, while a clustering zone of low IFA can be found in the mountains of southwest Hunan. Farmland abandonment at the regional level is negatively affected by the land productive potentialities, proportion of mechanized planting, ratio of effective irrigation, and distance to provincial capital, while it is positively associated with the variables mountainous terrain, per capita farmland area, and labor shortage. Additionally, farmland abandonment is also affected by adjacent areas through its spatial dependence. In short, seasonal farmland abandonment is also driven integratedly by the socioeconomic and environmental dimensions and spatial interaction of farm abandonment.

  15. Empirical Evidence on Time-Varying Hedging Effectiveness of Emissions Allowances under Departures from the Cost-of-Carry Theory

    Kai Chang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Under departures from the cost-of-carry theory, traded spot prices and conditional volatility disturbed from futures market have significant impacts on futures price of emissions allowances, and then we propose time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness estimation using ECM-GARCH model. Our empirical results show that conditional variance, conditional covariance, and their correlation between between spot and futures prices exhibit time-varying trends. Conditional volatility of spot prices, conditional volatility disturbed from futures market, and conditional correlation of market noises implied from spot and futures markets have significant effects on time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. In the immature emissions allowances market, market participants optimize portfolio sizes between spot and futures assets using historical market information and then achieve higher risk reduction of assets portfolio revenues; accordingly, we can obtain better hedging effectiveness through time-varying hedge ratios with departures from the cost-of-carry theory.

  16. Action Between Plot and Discourse

    Grünbaum, Thor

    2007-01-01

    In this article, I argue that the representation of simple, bodily action has the function of endowing the narrative sequence with a visualizing power. It makes the narrated scenes or situations ready for visualization by the reader or listener. By virtue of this visualizing power or disposition...... an important visualizing function, these narrated actions have a communicative function and, as such, they can be said to belong to the domain of discourse-narratology. In the first part of the article, I argue that a certain type of plot-narratology, due to its retrospective epistemology and abstract...... definition of action, is unable to conceive of this visualizing function. In the second part, I argue that discourse-narratology fares no better since the visualizing function is independent of voice and focalization. In the final part, I sketch a possible account of the visualizing function of simple...

  17. Financial instruments help producers hedge gas deals in volatile market

    Lawnin, J.N.; Kupiec, S.L.

    1993-01-01

    The Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) of 1978 and more recently the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Order 636 have changed gas marketing from a totally regulated industry to one that responds to free-market forces. The stable but controlled market in which producers once sold gas has become highly competitive and more efficient. Consequently, prices have become more volatile; they respond more quickly than they did before to changes in supply of and demand for natural gas. Prior to deregulation of the natural gas industry, producers had fewer marketing options than they do today. Under a typical gas sales contract, producers sold gas to the nearest pipeline at regulated prices, which remained relatively stable along the interstate distribution chain. The system, however, failed to generate adequate supply of gas. In an effort to realign supply and demand, Congress initiated the deregulation of natural gas with NGPA, which phased out most wellhead price controls. A series of FERC actions culminating in Order 636 extended the process. Now, independent producers can sell gas directly to end users. Under Order 636, interstate pipelines no longer offer merchant services to gas customers. The paper discusses the change in risk profiles, price protection, futures and options, hedged exposure, setting price floors, off-exchange contracts, risk considerations, types of risks, business controls, back office controls, and credit monitoring

  18. Evaluating Plot Designs for the Tropics

    Paul C. van Deusen; Bruce Bayle

    1991-01-01

    Theory and procedures are reviewed for determining the best type of plot for a given forest inventory. A general methodology is given that clarifies the relationship between different plot designs and the associated methods to produce the inventory estimates.

  19. Reduction of tree cover in West African woodlands and promotion in semi-arid farmlands

    Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Hiernaux, Pierre; Herrmann, Stefanie; Tucker, Compton J.; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Feng; Mertz, Ole; Kergoat, Laurent; Mbow, Cheikh; David, John L.; Melocik, Katherine A.; Dendoncker, Morgane; Vincke, Caroline; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2018-05-01

    Woody vegetation in farmland acts as a carbon sink and provides ecosystem services for local people, but no macroscale assessments of the impact of management and climate on woody cover exist for drylands. Here we make use of very high spatial resolution satellite imagery to derive wall-to-wall woody cover patterns in tropical West African drylands. Our study reveals that mean woody cover in farmlands along all semi-arid and sub-humid rainfall zones is 16%, on average only 6% lower than in savannahs. In semi-arid Sahel, farmland management promotes woody cover around villages (11%), while neighbouring savannahs had on average less woody cover. However, farmlands in sub-humid zones have a greatly reduced woody cover (21%) as compared with savannahs (33%). In the region as a whole, rainfall, terrain and soil are the most important (80%) determinants of woody cover, while management factors play a smaller (20%) role. We conclude that agricultural expansion causes a considerable reduction of trees in woodlands, but observations in Sahel indicate that villagers safeguard trees on nearby farmlands which contradicts simplistic ideas of a high negative correlation between population density and woody cover.

  20. Multiple hypothesis clustering in radar plot extraction

    Huizing, A.G.; Theil, A.; Dorp, Ph. van; Ligthart, L.P.

    1995-01-01

    False plots and plots with inaccurate range and Doppler estimates may severely degrade the performance of tracking algorithms in radar systems. This paper describes how a multiple hypothesis clustering technique can be applied to mitigate the problems involved in plot extraction. The measures of

  1. Assessing the Sustainability of Farm-land Management in the Eastern Azerbaijan Province (Case of Malekan County

    Siamak Nabizadeh

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to assess sustainable farmlands management in the Malekan County. The target population consisted of wheat growers among which 162 farmers were selected according to the multistage cluster selection method. The research tool used was a questionnaire whose face validity was confirmed by comments from faculty members and experts in the Malekan Agri- Jihad and its reliability was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha (average 0.71. Sustainability was measured by establishing composite index for six components of sustainable land management. The results of assessing sustainable land management revealed that 19.1% of the farmers were in an unsustainable situation, 34% of them were in a fairly unsustainable situation, 26.5% of them were in a fairly sustainable situation and 20.4% of them were in a sustainable situation. The results of correlation coefficient showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between age and farming experience with “stability and acceptability”, land size and farm income with “stability, acceptability and technical knowledge”, wheat yield and consumed fertilizer with “security”, land plots with “acceptability” and using farm machinery with “productivity, stability, acceptability and technical knowledge”. There is also a negative and significant relationship between non-farm income and “productivity” and consumed fertilizers and “security”.

  2. Restoration of degraded arid farmland at Project Wadi Attir: Impact of conservation on biological productivity and soil organic matter

    Mor-Mussery, Amir; Helman, David; Ben Eli, Michael; Leu, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    The Israeli Negev Desert, as most Mediterranean drylands, is profoundly degraded. We have been documenting degradation and successful rehabilitation approaches in recent research, aiming at maximizing environmental and economic benefits while restoring healthy dryland soils and perennial vegetation to act as carbon sinks. These methods have been implemented for rehabilitation of Project Wadi Attir's. 50 hectares of heavily degraded farmland suffering from intensive soil erosion (expressed in dense gullies net and massive overland flow). Project Wadi Attir is a groundbreaking initiative of the Bedouin community in the Negev, for establishing a model sustainable agricultural operation. The project was initiated by the US-based Sustainability Laboratory and the Hura Municipal Council. The project is designed to demonstrate implementation of holistic sustainability principles developed by The Lab. The project's ecosystem restoration component involves site development, erosion control, soil conservation and improvement, planting of native and agroforestry trees, together with conservation and protection of biodiversity hotspots and avoiding grazing have, within three years, revealed the high biodiversity and productivity potential of this arid/semi-arid landscape. A number of shrublands and loess plots were subject to strict conservation, avoiding tilling and grazing. Soil fertility, productivity and biodiversity of these conserved plots inside the farm boundaries was compared to similar unprotected plots outside the farm fences by sampling in the field and by using satellite imaging. Our findings indicate a gradual improvement of SOM content specifically in the conserved shrubland area. Water infiltration, herbaceous biomass productivity and ants' activity of the protected plots also significantly increased within 3 years compared to the unprotected control areas. Starting from similar soil organic matter content in 2013 (3.3%) in the rocky slopes, in 2016 1% higher

  3. Farmland Rental and Productivity of Wheat and Maize: An Empirical Study in Gansu, China

    Ying Liu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The rapid growth of farmland rental markets in China raises questions about the association of farmland rental and agricultural productivity. Although this issue has been extensively studied, the majority of studies have focused on yields and technical efficiency, with input use and cost efficiency receiving little attention. This study aimed to determine the statistical association of wheat and maize farmers’ farmland rental behaviors (renting land, not renting land and renting out land and input use, and the consequent association of farmers’ farmland rental behaviors and cost efficiency. For this purpose, the linear regression model and stochastic frontier model were employed, based on a survey data of 419 wheat and maize farmers in 25 villages in five counties of Gansu Province, China. The study found that farmland rental enhanced productivity and sustainability of agriculture through transferring farmland from households with less productivity to those with high productivity, and it was also helpful to reducing the consumption of fertilizers and chemicals in agricultural production. The results suggest that replacing labor with machines is an important way to reduce production costs, and households specializing in agricultural production use more rational amounts of fertilizers and chemicals than those with low productivity. Thus, the machinery purchase policy in China should continue to give great benefit to farmers. In addition, the machinery purchase subsidization policy has achieved satisfactory results in China, and it could be a good reference for other developing countries. However, some efficiency loss was found in households that rented out their land, and policy makers need to pay some attention to these households.

  4. Chromatographic properties PLOT multicapillary columns.

    Nikolaeva, O A; Patrushev, Y V; Sidelnikov, V N

    2017-03-10

    Multicapillary columns (MCCs) for gas chromatography make it possible to perform high-speed analysis of the mixtures of gaseous and volatile substances at a relatively large amount of the loaded sample. The study was performed using PLOT MCCs for gas-solid chromatography (GSC) with different stationary phases (SP) based on alumina, silica and poly-(1-trimethylsilyl-1-propyne) (PTMSP) polymer as well as porous polymers divinylbenzene-styrene (DVB-St), divinylbenzene-vinylimidazole (DVB-VIm) and divinylbenzene-ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (DVB-EGD). These MCCs have the efficiency of 4000-10000 theoretical plates per meter (TP/m) and at a column length of 25-30cm can separate within 10-20s multicomponent mixtures of substances belonging to different classes of chemical compounds. The sample amount not overloading the column is 0.03-1μg and depends on the features of a porous layer. Examples of separations on some of the studied columns are considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. New systems for photogrametric plotting

    Diaz Munoz, J.J.; Sarti Balsalobre, F.

    1995-01-01

    Ground photogrammetry is a highly useful technique for up-dating as-built documentation of nuclear power plants as it has the following advantages: - It reduces radiation exposure - It provides information concerning all the structures, equipment, components, pipe lines, etc, in the zone - it avoids errors made in the interpretation of drawings In the past, the application of non-topographic photogrammetry was limited by the need to use costly restitution equipment, until computer technology made it possible to operate complete photogrametric systems using a PC, digitizer, the appropriate software and a simple 35 mm camera. It is not necessary to use a tripod, or known the location of the camera or that the photographs are stereoscopic pairs. The plotting process is basically reduced to placing the photographs on the digitizing board, making the necessary adjustments and obtaining the coordinates of each point indicated. This paper explains the new photogrametric tools currently on the market, the theory behind them, and their advantages and disadvantages. It also describes some of the applications of advanced photogrammetry applied to design modifications in the nuclear sector, performed using the Empresarios Agrupados Metadat System. (Author)

  6. Biomass availability in forests, poplar plantations and hedges for various timber uses. National assessment based on the national forest inventory data and wood consumption statistics

    Ginisty, Christian; Vallet, Patrick; Chevalier, Helene; COLIN, Antoine

    2011-01-01

    This article provides an assessment of the quantities of potentially exploitable timber in French forests, poplar plantations and hedges for the period 2007 to 2020. The first step consisted in computing the gross available quantities of timber, prior to deduction of the various current consumptions. This was done applying the reference silvicultural scenarios to all the plots in the French national forest inventory, on the basis of their features (species, structure, fertility, age, observed per hectare volume). Current consumption was then subtracted from these quantities. It was estimated using the annual sectoral 'forest exploitation' survey in industry and an estimation of fuelwood consumption by households. The outcome is an excess availability of more than 28 million cubic metres of timber per year for bio-energy or pulp uses, and nearly 15 million cubic metres of workable timber, essentially hardwoods. (authors)

  7. Power generation assets. Energy constraints, upper bounds and hedging strategies

    Enge, Thomas

    2010-09-20

    strategy for this benchmark that is based on quantile regression. It defines a price interval for executing an individual swing right and is therefore very well suited for real world applications. In case of an American option we are able to show EaR-efficiency of our strategy in particular for a changing risk profile of the underlying price (altering volatility). Finally, we investigate hedging strategies before the delivery period as a function of the maximum available energy. In particular, we look at a hedge for the spot price risk of the power plant using a swing option. We propose a heuristic based on our synthetic spot deltas to find the relevant parameters of the swing option (number of swing rights and swing size) for a given upper generation amount. (orig.)

  8. Bet hedging in yeast by heterogeneous, age-correlated expression of a stress protectant.

    Sasha F Levy

    Full Text Available Genetically identical cells grown in the same culture display striking cell-to-cell heterogeneity in gene expression and other traits. A crucial challenge is to understand how much of this heterogeneity reflects the noise tolerance of a robust system and how much serves a biological function. In bacteria, stochastic gene expression results in cell-to-cell heterogeneity that might serve as a bet-hedging mechanism, allowing a few cells to survive through an antimicrobial treatment while others perish. Despite its clinical importance, the molecular mechanisms underlying bet hedging remain unclear. Here, we investigate the mechanisms of bet hedging in Saccharomyces cerevisiae using a new high-throughput microscopy assay that monitors variable protein expression, morphology, growth rate, and survival outcomes of tens of thousands of yeast microcolonies simultaneously. We find that clonal populations display broad distributions of growth rates and that slow growth predicts resistance to heat killing in a probabalistic manner. We identify several gene products that are likely to play a role in bet hedging and confirm that Tsl1, a trehalose-synthesis regulator, is an important component of this resistance. Tsl1 abundance correlates with growth rate and replicative age and predicts survival. Our results suggest that yeast bet hedging results from multiple epigenetic growth states determined by a combination of stochastic and deterministic factors.

  9. MEANING-MAKING OF HEDGES IN THE GOSSIP COLUMN OF THE JAKARTA POST

    Uswatun Hasanah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the use of hedges (vague language as the meaning-making practice in the gossip column of the Jakarta Post. The daily newspaper is chosen due to pragmatic purposes, accessibility, and its national coverage. Adapting the framework of Lakoff (1973, Holmes (1990 and Hyland (1996a-b, this study focuses on the hedges’ functions and meanings in a gossip column (informal context, apart from an academic discourse (formal context in which hedges are frequently discussed. This possibly leads to the diverse functions and meanings of the hedges’ occurrences within the discourse: through the employment of ‘epistemic modal’ (the expression of uncertainty and ‘affective’ (the expression of solidarity function. Further, the mostly-found hedges are the epistemic modal ‘about’ (five times and the affective modal ‘think’ (four times from six hedge categories. Eventually, it is also revealed that hedges used in the gossip column are to enhance the self-image and trend-setting identity of the celebrities, who indeed are involved in the discourse.

  10. The Impact of Hedge Fund Activism on Target Firm Performance, Executive Compensation and Executive Wealth

    Andrew Carrothers

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between hedge fund activism and target firm performance, executive compensation, and executive wealth. It introduces a theoretical framework that describes the activism process as a sequence of discrete decisions. The methodology uses regression analysis on a matched sample based on firm size, industry, and market-to-book ratio. All regressions control for industry and year fixed effects. Schedule 13D Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC filings are the source for the statistical sample of hedge fund target firms. I supplement that data with target firm financial, operating, and share price information from the CRSP-COMPUSTAT merged database. Activist hedge funds target undervalued or underperforming firms with high profitability and cash flows. They do not avoid firms with powerful CEOs. Leverage, executive compensation, pay for performance and CEO turnover increase at target firms after the arrival of the activist hedge fund. Target firm executives’ wealth is more sensitive to changes in share price after hedge fund activism events suggesting that the executive team experiences changes to their compensation structure that provides incentive to take action to improve returns to shareholders. The top executives reap rewards for increasing firm value but not for increased risk taking.

  11. Assessing Performance of Multipurpose Reservoir System Using Two-Point Linear Hedging Rule

    Sasireka, K.; Neelakantan, T. R.

    2017-07-01

    Reservoir operation is the one of the important filed of water resource management. Innovative techniques in water resource management are focussed at optimizing the available water and in decreasing the environmental impact of water utilization on the natural environment. In the operation of multi reservoir system, efficient regulation of the release to satisfy the demand for various purpose like domestic, irrigation and hydropower can lead to increase the benefit from the reservoir as well as significantly reduces the damage due to floods. Hedging rule is one of the emerging techniques in reservoir operation, which reduce the severity of drought by accepting number of smaller shortages. The key objective of this paper is to maximize the minimum power production and improve the reliability of water supply for municipal and irrigation purpose by using hedging rule. In this paper, Type II two-point linear hedging rule is attempted to improve the operation of Bargi reservoir in the Narmada basin in India. The results obtained from simulation of hedging rule is compared with results from Standard Operating Policy, the result shows that the application of hedging rule significantly improved the reliability of water supply and reliability of irrigation release and firm power production.

  12. Determinantes para utilização de Hedge Accouting: uma escolha contábil

    Fernando Caio Galdi

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo investiga a sistemática da escolha contábil, no meio corporativo,referente à contratação e à qualificação, ou não, de operações com derivativos para aplicação da contabilidade de hedge (Hedge Accounting, conforme as normas do Fasb (SFAS 133. Dentro dessa abordagem, foram utilizadas variáveis relacionadas aos incentivos/benefícios que as empresas podem ter ao classificarem uma transação dentro dos requisitos necessários para aplicação da contabilidade de operações de hedge (Hedge Accounting. As empresas avaliadas são aquelas listadas na NYSE nos setores de Mineração, Siderurgia/Metalurgia e Papel/Celulose. Os dados utilizados foram obtidos por meio da base de dados Economatica, websites das firmas selecionadas e da análise das demonstrações financeiras publicadas nos relatórios anuais, em dólares norte-americanos, de cada uma das selecionadas firmas, referentes ao ano de 2006. As evidências apontam para uma relação positiva e significante entre a dívida de longo prazo e a aplicação da contabilidade de hedge, o que é consistente com a teoria e corrobora com a relação esperada.

  13. Determinantes para utilização de Hedge Accouting: uma escolha contábil

    Fernando Caio Galdi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Este estudio investiga la sistemática de la elección contable, en el medio corporativo, referente a la contratación y a la calificación, o no, de operaciones con derivativos para apli - cación de la contabilidad de hedge ( Hedge Accounting , conforme a las normas del Fasb ( SFAS 133 . Dentro de ese abordaje, fueron utilizadas variables relacionadas a los incen - tivos/beneficios que las empresas pueden tener al clasificar una transacción dentro de los requisitos necesarios para aplicación de la contabilidad de operaciones de hedge ( Hedge Accounting . Las empresas evaluadas son aquellas listadas en la NYSE en los sectores de Minería, Siderurgia/Metalurgia y Papel/Celulosa. Los datos utilizados fueron obtenidos por medio de la base de datos Economatica , websites de las firmas seleccionadas y del análisis de las demostraciones financieras publicadas en los informes anuales, en dólares norteamericanos, de cada una de las seleccionadas firmas, referentes al año 2006. Las evidencias apuntan hacia una relación positiva y significante entre la deuda de largo plazo y la aplicación de la contabilidad de hedge , lo que es consistente con la teoría y corrobora con la relación esperada.

  14. A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market

    Coulon, Michael; Powell, Warren B.; Sircar, Ronnie

    2013-01-01

    Energy companies with commitments to meet customers' daily electricity demands face the problem of hedging load and price risk. We propose a joint model for load and price dynamics, which is motivated by the goal of facilitating optimal hedging decisions, while also intuitively capturing the key features of the electricity market. Driven by three stochastic factors including the load process, our power price model allows for the calculation of closed-form pricing formulas for forwards and some options, products often used for hedging purposes. Making use of these results, we illustrate in a simple example the hedging benefit of these instruments, while also evaluating the performance of the model when fitted to the Texas electricity market. - Highlights: • We present a structural model for electricity spot prices in the ERCOT market. • Relationships between power price and factors such as load and gas price are studied. • Seasonal patterns and load-dependent spikes are shown to be well captured. • Closed-form results for prices of forwards, options and spread options are derived. • We demonstrate the effectiveness of hedging power demand with forwards and options

  15. Caixa é dívida negativa sob a perspectiva de hedging no Brasil?

    Marcio Telles Portal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available O presente estudo investigou se as companhias brasileiras de capital aberto, entre 1995 e 2008, coordenam as políticas de caixa e dívida para efeitos de hedging contra subinvestimento em condições de restrição financeira. Os resultados indicam a inexistência de um componente de hedging usando, simultaneamente, as políticas de caixa e dívida em companhias restritas. Foi observada para as companhias restritas financeiramente uma sensibilidade positiva do caixa ao fluxo de caixa e sensibilidade negativa da dívida ao fluxo de caixa, independentemente da necessidade de hedging. As companhias irrestritas não apresentaram uma sensibilidade do caixa ao fluxo de caixa significante estatisticamente, mas apresentaram sensibilidade negativa da dívida ao fluxo de caixa, resultados também independentes da necessidade de hedging. As evidências contrariam os resultados encontrados por Acharya, Almeida e Campello (2007 no mercado norte-americano, onde caixa e dívida negativa apresentaram de acordo com a necessidade de hedging diferentes papéis na otimização intertemporal dos investimentos em companhias restritas.

  16. Bet hedging via seed banking in desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): demographic evidence from natural populations.

    Evans, Margaret E K; Ferrière, Régis; Kane, Michael J; Venable, D Lawrence

    2007-02-01

    Bet hedging is one solution to the problem of an unpredictably variable environment: fitness in the average environment is sacrificed in favor of lower variation in fitness if this leads to higher long-run stochastic mean fitness. While bet hedging is an important concept in evolutionary ecology, empirical evidence that it occurs is scant. Here we evaluate whether bet hedging occurs via seed banking in natural populations of two species of desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae), one annual and one perennial. Four years of data on plants and 3 years of data on seeds yielded two transitions for the entire life cycle. One year was exceptionally dry, leading to reproductive failure in the sample areas, and the other was above average in precipitation, leading to reproductive success in four of five populations. Stochastic simulations of population growth revealed patterns indicative of bet hedging via seed banking, particularly in the annual populations: variance in fitness and fitness in the average environment were lower with seed banking than without, whereas long-run stochastic mean fitness was higher with seed banking than without across a wide range of probabilities of the wet year. This represents a novel, unusually rigorous demonstration of bet hedging from field data.

  17. Forward, Forward Option and No Hedging Which One is the Best for Managing Currency Risk?

    Riko Hendrawan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Bank Indonesia Regulation No.18/18/PBI/2016 concerning foreign exchange transactions against rupiah between banks and domestic parties, indicates that the importance of hedging for business actors in Indonesia. Based on the data of the rupiah exchange rate movement against the dollar from January 2006 to December 2016 shows that the fluctuation of the rupiah against the US dollar tends to weaken, although at some point the observation shows the strengthening of the rupiah against the US dollar. The purpose of this research is to assess impact of Forward, Forward Option and No Hedging Strategy for managing currency exposure between IDR to USD. Using data from January 2006–December 2016 taken from website of Bank Indonesia and Federal Reserve. Total 396 simulations,consists of 132 using Forward simulations, 132 using Forward Option simulations and 132 using No Hedging simulations. Findings from this research show that Forward Option was has no positive contribution in managing currency exposure, No Hedging Strategy has 36,36 percent positive contribution and forward contract has 72,73 percent positive contribution in managing currency exposure. Its means Forward Contract was better than Forward Option and No Hedging Strategies in managing currency exposure.

  18. Environmental hedging: A theory and method for reconciling reservoir operations for downstream ecology and water supply

    Adams, L. E.; Lund, J. R.; Moyle, P. B.; Quiñones, R. M.; Herman, J. D.; O'Rear, T. A.

    2017-09-01

    Building reservoir release schedules to manage engineered river systems can involve costly trade-offs between storing and releasing water. As a result, the design of release schedules requires metrics that quantify the benefit and damages created by releases to the downstream ecosystem. Such metrics should support making operational decisions under uncertain hydrologic conditions, including drought and flood seasons. This study addresses this need and develops a reservoir operation rule structure and method to maximize downstream environmental benefit while meeting human water demands. The result is a general approach for hedging downstream environmental objectives. A multistage stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear program with Markov Chains, identifies optimal "environmental hedging," releases to maximize environmental benefits subject to probabilistic seasonal hydrologic conditions, current, past, and future environmental demand, human water supply needs, infrastructure limitations, population dynamics, drought storage protection, and the river's carrying capacity. Environmental hedging "hedges bets" for drought by reducing releases for fish, sometimes intentionally killing some fish early to reduce the likelihood of large fish kills and storage crises later. This approach is applied to Folsom reservoir in California to support survival of fall-run Chinook salmon in the lower American River for a range of carryover and initial storage cases. Benefit is measured in terms of fish survival; maintaining self-sustaining native fish populations is a significant indicator of ecosystem function. Environmental hedging meets human demand and outperforms other operating rules, including the current Folsom operating strategy, based on metrics of fish extirpation and water supply reliability.

  19. Fine-scale mapping of High Nature Value farmlands: novel approaches to improve the management of rural biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Carvalho-Santos, C.; Jongman, R.H.G.; Alonso, J.; Honrado, J.

    2010-01-01

    High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf) are defined as rural lands characterized by high levels of biodiversity and extensive farming practices. These farmlands are also known to provide important ecosystems services, such as food production, pollination, water purification and landscape recreation.

  20. Variance Swaps in BM&F: Pricing and Viability of Hedge

    Richard John Brostowicz Junior

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A variance swap can theoretically be priced with an infinite set of vanilla calls and puts options considering that the realized variance follows a purely diffusive process with continuous monitoring. In this article we willanalyze the possible differences in pricing considering discrete monitoring of realized variance. It will analyze the pricing of variance swaps with payoff in dollars, since there is a OTC market that works this way and thatpotentially serve as a hedge for the variance swaps traded in BM&F. Additionally, will be tested the feasibility of hedge of variance swaps when there is liquidity in just a few exercise prices, as is the case of FX optionstraded in BM&F. Thus be assembled portfolios containing variance swaps and their replicating portfolios using the available exercise prices as proposed in (DEMETERFI et al., 1999. With these portfolios, the effectiveness of the hedge was not robust in mostly of tests conducted in this work.

  1. A risk hedging strategy under the nonparallel-shift yield curve

    Gong, Pu; He, Xubiao

    2005-08-01

    Under the assumption of the movement of rigid, a nonparallel-shift model in the term structure of interest rates is developed by introducing Fisher & Weil duration which is a well-known concept in the area of interest risk management. This paper has studied the hedge and replication for portfolio immunization to minimize the risk exposure. Throughout the experiment of numerical simulation, the risk exposures of the portfolio under the different risk hedging strategies are quantitatively evaluated by the method of value at risk (VaR) order statistics (OS) estimation. The results show that the risk hedging strategy proposed in this paper is very effective for the interest risk management of the default-free bond.

  2. Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market

    Ahmad Jalali-Naini; Maryam Kazemi Manesh

    2006-01-01

    The crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Such characteristics imply that the oil market is a promising area for testing volatility models. Testing and predicting volatility using ARCH and GARCH models have grown in the literature. A useful application of the volatility models is in the formulation of hedging strategies. In this paper we compare the optimal hedge ratio for the crude oil using the classical minimum risk approach and use ARCH to incorporate the effect of heteroskedasticity in the residuals on the hedge ratio. In addition, we test for the existence of a variable risk premium in the crude oil market. We find that, assuming rational expectations, there is a non-zero risk premium. We test for the variability of the risk premia and find evidence in its support when we employed a multivariate GARCH model. (author)

  3. A seasonal copula mixture for hedging the clean spark spread with wind power futures

    Christensen, Troels Sønderby; Pircalabu, Anca; Høg, Esben

    2018-01-01

    The recently introduced German wind power futures have brought the opportunity to address the problem of volume risk in wind power generation directly. In this paper we study the hedging benefits of these instruments in the context of gas-fired power plants by employing a strategy that allows...... and the dependence structure, while being straightforward and easy to implement. Based on Monte Carlo simulations from the proposed model, the results indicate that significant benefits can be achieved by using wind power futures to hedge the spot clean spark spread. Moreover, a comparison study shows...... trading in the spot clean spark spread and wind power futures. To facilitate hedging decisions, we propose a time-varying copula mixture for the joint behavior of the spot clean spark spread and the daily wind index. The model describes the data surprisingly well, both in terms of the marginals...

  4. Hedges Used in Business Emails: A Corpus Study on the Language Strategy of International Business Communication Online

    Yue, Siwei; Wang, Xuefei

    2014-01-01

    Based on a corpus of 296 authentic business emails produced in computer-mediated business communication from 7 Chinese international trade enterprises, this paper addresses the language strategy applied in CMC (Computer-mediated Communication) by examining the use of hedges. With the emergence of internet, a wider range of hedges are applied…

  5. The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    Aabo, Tom

    The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...

  6. International hedging under concurrent risks of input/output prices and exchange rate : The case of Korean oil refinery

    Yun, W C; Kim, S D [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-11-01

    This study develops an international hedging model which accounts for the multiple risks of input and output prices and exchange rates. Considering a fixed production technology, we formulize simultaneous minimum variance hedge ratios, which reflects inter correlations among prices. To utilize the dynamic nature of prices, time-varying conditional procedures are specified to estimate the relevant variance and covariance matrix. The time-varying representations of the variance and covariance matrix are statistically appropriate, in general. The separate hedge ratios are similar to the simultaneous hedge ratios for alternative procedures. The ex post hedging effectiveness indicate that there are substantial reduction in the variance of returns for all the procedures. The contribution of foreign currency futures is minimal due to the low correlation between commodities and exchange rates. Based on the traditional definition of hedging effectiveness, the time-varying conditional procedure provide little gain to the hedgers over a constant procedure in terms of the mean and the variance reduction. However, the performance of conditional procedures could be improved by accounting for the potential problems: mis specification problem, inappropriate definition of hedging effectiveness, and conflicts between theoretical derivation and estimation of hedge ratios. (author). 39 refs., 6 tabs.

  7. Fifth International Symposium on Recurrence Plot

    Riley, Michael; Giuliani, Alessandro; Webber, Charles; Jr, Jr; Translational Recurrences : From Mathematical Theory to Real-World Applications

    2014-01-01

    This book features 13 papers presented at the Fifth International Symposium on Recurrence Plots, held August 2013 in Chicago, IL. It examines recent applications and developments in recurrence plots and recurrence quantifi cation analysis (RQA) with special emphasis on biological and cognitive systems and the analysis of coupled systems using cross-recurrence methods. Readers will discover new applications and insights into a range of systems provided by recurrence plot analysis and new theoretical and mathematical developments in recurrence plots. Recurrence plot based analysis is a powerful tool that operates on real-world complex systems that are nonlinear, non-stationary, noisy, of any statistical distribution, free of any particular model type, and not particularly long. Quantitative analyses promote the detection of system state changes, synchronized dynamical regimes, or classifi cation of system states. Th e book will be of interest to an interdisciplinary audience of recurrence plot users and researc...

  8. IPLOT, interactive MELCOR data plotting system

    2008-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: IPLOT is an interactive MELCOR data plotting system. It provides several kinds of GUI interfaces for a flexible data plotting. IPLOT capabilities include creation, saving and loading of user specified MELCOR variables trend graphs. IPLOT can use one or several plot files for a graph generation while the graphs can be either in one window or in several windows. Besides IPLOT provides several graph convenient functions such as zooming, re-sizing, printing for a detail analysis of severe accidents. 2 - Methods: Trend values seeking in a plot file is performed by a binary search method for fast performance. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: MELCOR plot files are required for plotting

  9. Recurrence plots of exchange rates of currencies

    Sparavigna, Amelia Carolina

    2014-01-01

    Used to investigate the presence of distinctive recurrent behaviours in natural processes, the recurrence plots can be applied to the analysis of economic data, and, in particular, to the characterization of exchange rates of currencies too. In this paper, we will show that these plots are able to characterize the periods of oscillation and random walk of currencies and enhance their reply to news and events, by means of texture transitions. The examples of recurrence plots given here are obt...

  10. System for histogram entry, retrieval, and plotting

    Kellogg, M.; Gallup, J.M.; Shlaer, S.; Spencer, N.

    1977-10-01

    This manual describes the systems for producing histograms and dot plots that were designed for use in connection with the Q general-purpose data-acquisition system. These systems allow for the creation of histograms; the entry, retrieval, and plotting of data in the form of histograms; and the dynamic display of scatter plots as data are acquired. Although the systems are designed for use with Q, they can also be used as a part of other applications. 3 figures

  11. Value at Risk and Hedge Fund Return - Does High Risk Bring High Return?

    Jing, Tao; Zhao, Hongxiang

    2010-01-01

    This paper mainly focuses on the correlation between live hedge fund return and their value at risk (VaR), and is based on the historical data from May 2000 to April 2010. The authors adopt portfolio level analyses and fund level cross-sectional regression, and find that there is significant positive correlation, both statistically and economically, between the hedge fund return and VaRs (parametric, non-parametric and GARCH). Further research is conducted by sub-dividing the overall period i...

  12. The role of cointegration for optimal hedging with heteroscedastic error term

    Gatarek, Lukasz; Johansen, Søren

    2017-01-01

    a cointegrating vector for large h, thereby giving a bounded risk. Taking the expected return into account, the portfolio that maximizes the Sharpe ratio is found, and it is shown that it also approaches a cointegration portfolio. For constant conditional volatility, the conditional variance can be estimated...... forward contracts for electricity, which are hedged by forward contracts for fuel prices. The main conclusion of the paper is that for optimal hedging, one should exploit the cointegrating properties for long horizons, but for short horizons more weight should be put on the remaining dynamics....

  13. The role of cointegration for optimal hedging with heteroscedastic error term

    Gatarek, Lutasz; Johansen, Søren

    a cointegrating vector for large h, thereby giving a bounded risk. Taking the expected return into account, the portfolio that maximizes the Sharpe ratio is found, and it is shown that it also approaches a cointegration portfolio. For constant conditional volatility, the conditional variance can be estimated...... forward contracts for electricity, which are hedged by forward contracts for fuel prices. The main conclusion of the paper is that for optimal hedging, one should exploit the cointegrating properties for long horizons, but for short horizons more weight should be put on the remaining dynamics....

  14. Determinantes para utilização de Hedge Accouting: uma escolha contábil

    Fernando Caio Galdi; Luiz Fernando Grama Guerra

    2009-01-01

    Este estudio investiga la sistemática de la elección contable, en el medio corporativo, referente a la contratación y a la calificación, o no, de operaciones con derivativos para apli - cación de la contabilidad de hedge ( Hedge Accounting ), conforme a las normas del Fasb ( SFAS 133 ). Dentro de ese abordaje, fueron utilizadas variables relacionadas a los incen - tivos/beneficios que las empresas pueden tener al clasificar una transacción dentro de los requisitos necesarios para aplicac...

  15. Mean-Variance Hedging on Uncertain Time Horizon in a Market with a Jump

    Kharroubi, Idris; Lim, Thomas; Ngoupeyou, Armand

    2013-01-01

    In this work, we study the problem of mean-variance hedging with a random horizon T∧τ, where T is a deterministic constant and τ is a jump time of the underlying asset price process. We first formulate this problem as a stochastic control problem and relate it to a system of BSDEs with a jump. We then provide a verification theorem which gives the optimal strategy for the mean-variance hedging using the solution of the previous system of BSDEs. Finally, we prove that this system of BSDEs admits a solution via a decomposition approach coming from filtration enlargement theory

  16. Mean-Variance Hedging on Uncertain Time Horizon in a Market with a Jump

    Kharroubi, Idris, E-mail: kharroubi@ceremade.dauphine.fr [Université Paris Dauphine, CEREMADE, CNRS UMR 7534 (France); Lim, Thomas, E-mail: lim@ensiie.fr [Université d’Evry and ENSIIE, Laboratoire d’Analyse et Probabilités (France); Ngoupeyou, Armand, E-mail: armand.ngoupeyou@univ-paris-diderot.fr [Université Paris 7, Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires (France)

    2013-12-15

    In this work, we study the problem of mean-variance hedging with a random horizon T∧τ, where T is a deterministic constant and τ is a jump time of the underlying asset price process. We first formulate this problem as a stochastic control problem and relate it to a system of BSDEs with a jump. We then provide a verification theorem which gives the optimal strategy for the mean-variance hedging using the solution of the previous system of BSDEs. Finally, we prove that this system of BSDEs admits a solution via a decomposition approach coming from filtration enlargement theory.

  17. FARMLAND. A dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1995-07-01

    Models to simulate the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial foods have been developed at NRPB and regularly used over the last 20 years. The foodchain model is named FARMLAND (Food Activity from Radionuclide Movement on LAND) and it contains a suite of submodels, each of which simulates radionuclide transfer through a different part of the foodchain. These models can be combined in various orders so that they can be used for different situations of radiological interest. The main foods considered are green vegetables, grain products, root vegetables, milk, meat and offal from cattle, and meat and offal from sheep. A large variety of elements can be considered, although the degree of complexity with which some are modelled is greater than that for others; isotopes of caesium, strontium and iodine are treated in greatest detail. This report gives an overview of the FARMLAND model with the aim of consolidating all the information on the model available in past NRPB publications. In addition, recent model developments are described. The use of FARMLAND for different applications is addressed. In particular, the generation of a set of parameter values and assumptions for use in general applications in countries in the European Union are discussed. Activity concentrations in foods are presented for a few important radionuclides for both routine and accidental release applications. The conclusions of verification and validation studies performed using FARMLAND are also outlined. (author)

  18. Bacterial antibiotic resistance levels in Danish farmland as a result of treatment with pig manure slurry

    Sengeløv, Gitte; Agersø, Yvonne; Halling-Sørensen, B.

    2003-01-01

    Resistance to tetracycline, macrolides and streptomycin was measured for a period of 8 months in soil bacteria obtained from farmland treated with pig manure slurry. This was done by spread plating bacteria on selective media (Luria Bertani (LB) medium supplemented with antibiotics). To account...

  19. Mapping farmland abandonment and recultivation across Europe using MODIS NDVI time series

    Estel, Stephan; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Alcántara, Camilo

    2015-01-01

    for recultivation hinges on incomplete knowledge about the spatial patterns of fallow and abandoned farmland, especially at broad geographic scales. Our goals were to develop a methodology to map active and fallow land using MODIS Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series and to provide the first...

  20. Interactions between abiotic filters, landscape structure and species traits as determinants of dairy farmland plant diversity

    Lomba, A.; Bunce, R.G.H.; Jongman, R.H.G.; Moreira, F.; Honrado, J.

    2011-01-01

    Maintaining farmland biodiversity in Europe under scenarios of agricultural intensification is a keystone challenge of nature conservation. The recruitment of species from the regional pool to local landscape mosaics and individual patches is known to be determined by multi-scale ecological filters.

  1. Measurement of Farmland Ecosystem Services Evaluation in Beidaihe District, Hebei Province, China

    LIU Xiao-dan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Farmland ecosystem is an important part of supporting and maintaining earth's life systems. It has the direct function value of providing agricultural product as well as the indirect function values of adjustment, support and culture. Chose the Beidaihe district in Hebei Province as the study region, the eco-system service functions were evaluated by ecological economics approach. The results showed that the indirect value was 1.09 times of the value direct in 2014. The farmland ecosystem not only had direct production function, but also had important ecological supporting functions. In the process of agricultural structure adjustment, the indirect functions should be given enough attention. The sort of values were production function > tourism function > carbon sequestration and oxygen release function > dispose of waste function > water conservation function > social security function > soil protection value > straw returning to field function > clean air function. In the process of accelerating the construction of modern agricultural park, vigorously developing ecological leisure agriculture, pushing forward the comprehensive utilization of crop straw, and actively developing ecological cycle of agriculture, the Beidaihe district should rationally adjust the use of farmland and focus on improving the values of indirect services to optimize service values. The study can be used as decision basis and scientific support for effective protection and sustainable utilization of farmland resources.

  2. Greening the Common Agricultural Policy. Impacts on farmland biodiversity on an EU scale

    Van Zeijts, H.; Overmars, K.; Van der Bilt, W.; Schulp, N.; Notenboom, J.; Westhoek, H. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Helming, J.; Terluin, I. [LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre WUR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Janssen, S. [Alterra Wageningen UR, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-08-15

    'Greening' the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), as proposed by the European Commission (EC), will slow down the decline in farmland biodiversity, most notably in intensive farming areas. Extensively farmed areas are better served by policies preserving their rich biodiversity. Regional variation in policies tailored to reflect local conditions could, therefore, result in a better outcome.

  3. Representing uncertainty on model analysis plots

    Trevor I. Smith

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model. Unfortunately, Bao’s original presentation of the model plot did not include a way to represent uncertainty in these measurements. I present details of a method to add error bars to model plots by expanding the work of Sommer and Lindell. I also provide a template for generating model plots with error bars.

  4. Optimal Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts in a Discrete-Time Incomplete Market

    Norman Josephy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a method of optimal hedging and pricing of equity-linked life insurance products in an incomplete discrete-time financial market. A pure endowment life insurance contract with guarantee is used as an example. The financial market incompleteness is caused by the assumption that the underlying risky asset price ratios are distributed in a compact interval, generalizing the assumptions of multinomial incomplete market models. For a range of initial hedging capitals for the embedded financial option, we numerically solve an optimal hedging problem and determine a risk-return profile of each optimal non-self-financing hedging strategy. The fair price of the insurance contract is determined according to the insurer's risk-return preferences. Illustrative numerical results of testing our algorithm on hypothetical insurance contracts are documented. A discussion and a test of a hedging strategy recalibration technique for long-term contracts are presented.

  5. [Using sequential indicator simulation method to define risk areas of soil heavy metals in farmland.

    Yang, Hao; Song, Ying Qiang; Hu, Yue Ming; Chen, Fei Xiang; Zhang, Rui

    2018-05-01

    The heavy metals in soil have serious impacts on safety, ecological environment and human health due to their toxicity and accumulation. It is necessary to efficiently identify the risk area of heavy metals in farmland soil, which is of important significance for environment protection, pollution warning and farmland risk control. We collected 204 samples and analyzed the contents of seven kinds of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg) in Zengcheng District of Guangzhou, China. In order to overcame the problems of the data, including the limitation of abnormal values and skewness distribution and the smooth effect with the traditional kriging methods, we used sequential indicator simulation method (SISIM) to define the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and combined Hakanson index method to identify potential ecological risk area of heavy metals in farmland. The results showed that: (1) Based on the similar accuracy of spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, the SISIM had a better expression of detail rebuild than ordinary kriging in small scale area. Compared to indicator kriging, the SISIM had less error rate (4.9%-17.1%) in uncertainty evaluation of heavy-metal risk identification. The SISIM had less smooth effect and was more applicable to simulate the spatial uncertainty assessment of soil heavy metals and risk identification. (2) There was no pollution in Zengcheng's farmland. Moderate potential ecological risk was found in the southern part of study area due to enterprise production, human activities, and river sediments. This study combined the sequential indicator simulation with Hakanson risk index method, and effectively overcame the outlier information loss and smooth effect of traditional kriging method. It provided a new way to identify the soil heavy metal risk area of farmland in uneven sampling.

  6. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  7. Box Plots in the Australian Curriculum

    Watson, Jane M.

    2012-01-01

    This article compares the definition of "box plot" as used in the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" with other definitions used in the education community; describes the difficulties students experience when dealing with box plots; and discusses the elaboration that is necessary to enable teachers to develop the knowledge…

  8. Emotional characters for automatic plot creation

    Theune, Mariet; Rensen, S.; op den Akker, Hendrikus J.A.; Heylen, Dirk K.J.; Nijholt, Antinus; Göbel, S.; Spierling, U.; Hoffmann, A.; Iurgel, I.; Schneider, O.; Dechau, J.; Feix, A.

    The Virtual Storyteller is a multi-agent framework for automatic story generation. In this paper we describe how plots emerge from the actions of semi-autonomous character agents, focusing on the influence of the characters’ emotions on plot development.

  9. Reaction Order Ambiguity in Integrated Rate Plots

    Lee, Joe

    2008-01-01

    Integrated rate plots are frequently used in reaction kinetics to determine orders of reactions. It is often emphasised, when using this methodology in practice, that it is necessary to monitor the reaction to a substantial fraction of completion for these plots to yield unambiguous orders. The present article gives a theoretical and statistical…

  10. Digital data collection in forest dynamics plots

    Faith Inman-Narahari; Christian Giardina; Rebecca Ostertag; Susan Cordell; Lawren Sack

    2010-01-01

    Summary 1. Computers are widely used in all aspects of research but their application to in-field data collection for forest plots has rarely been evaluated. 2. We developed digital data collection methods using ESRI mapping software and ruggedized field computers to map and measure ~30 000 trees in two 4-ha forest dynamics plots in wet and dry...

  11. Plotting system for the MINCS code

    Watanabe, Tadashi

    1990-08-01

    The plotting system for the MINCS code is described. The transient two-phase flow analysis code MINCS has been developed to provide a computational tool for analysing various two-phase flow phenomena in one-dimensional ducts. Two plotting systems, namely the SPLPLOT system and the SDPLOT system, can be used as the plotting functions. The SPLPLOT system is used for plotting time transients of variables, while the SDPLOT system is for spatial distributions. The SPLPLOT system is based on the SPLPACK system, which is used as a general tool for plotting results of transient analysis codes or experiments. The SDPLOT is based on the GPLP program, which is also regarded as one of the general plotting programs. In the SPLPLOT and the SDPLOT systems, the standardized data format called the SPL format is used in reading data to be plotted. The output data format of MINCS is translated into the SPL format by using the conversion system called the MINTOSPL system. In this report, how to use the plotting functions is described. (author)

  12. Hedge fund replication with a genetic algorithm: breeding a usable mousetrap

    Payne, B. C.; Trešl, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 10 (2015), s. 1705-1726 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-31783S Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : hedge funds * replication * genetic algorithm Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015

  13. Pricing and hedging derivative securities with neural networks: Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging.

    Gençay, R; Qi, M

    2001-01-01

    We study the effectiveness of cross validation, Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging to mitigate overfitting and improving generalization for pricing and hedging derivative securities with daily S&P 500 index daily call options from January 1988 to December 1993. Our results indicate that Bayesian regularization can generate significantly smaller pricing and delta-hedging errors than the baseline neural-network (NN) model and the Black-Scholes model for some years. While early stopping does not affect the pricing errors, it significantly reduces the hedging error (HE) in four of the six years we investigated. Although computationally most demanding, bagging seems to provide the most accurate pricing and delta hedging. Furthermore, the standard deviation of the MSPE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in all six years, and the standard deviation of the average HE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in five out of six years. We conclude that they be used at least in cases when no appropriate hints are available.

  14. Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance

    Baquero, G.; Ter Horst, J.R.; Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    2002-01-01

    Hedge funds databases are typicall subject to high attrition rates because of fund termination and self-selection.Even when all funds are included up to their last available return, one cannot prevent that ex post conditioning biases affect standard estimates of performance persistence.In this paper

  15. Five-dimensional Monopole Equation with Hedge-Hog Ansatz and Abel's Differential Equation

    Kihara, Hironobu

    2008-01-01

    We review the generalized monopole in the five-dimensional Euclidean space. A numerical solution with the Hedge-Hog ansatz is studied. The Bogomol'nyi equation becomes a second order autonomous non-linear differential equation. The equation can be translated into the Abel's differential equation of the second kind and is an algebraic differential equation.

  16. 18 CFR 367.1760 - Account 176, Derivative instrument assets-Hedges.

    2010-04-01

    ... change in the fair value of derivative instrument assets designated by the service company as cash flow... flow hedge it will record the change in the fair value of the derivative instrument in this account... must record the change in the fair value of the derivative instrument in this account with a concurrent...

  17. 26 CFR 1.988-5 - Section 988(d) hedging transactions.

    2010-04-01

    ... under the terms of the hedge to acquire the currency used to make payments under the qualifying debt.... (a) Integration of a nonfunctional currency debt instrument and a § 1.988-5(a) hedge—(1) In general... currency denominated debt instrument, such instrument shall be subject to the rules of § 1.988-2(b). (2...

  18. Hedging Behavior in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises: The Role of Unobserved Heterogeneity

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract We investigate factors that drive derivative usage in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The influence of these factors on hedging behavior cannot a priori be assumed equal for all SMEs. To address this heterogeneity, a generalized mixture regression model is used which classifies

  19. Arbitrage hedging strategy and one more explanation of the volatility smile

    Mikhail Martynov; Olga Rozanova

    2011-01-01

    We present an explicit hedging strategy, which enables to prove arbitrageness of market incorporating at least two assets depending on the same random factor. The implied Black-Scholes volatility, computed taking into account the form of the graph of the option price, related to our strategy, demonstrates the "skewness" inherent to the observational data.

  20. Scab severity in relation to hedge pruning pecan trees in the Southeastern USA

    Scab is the most damaging disease of pecan in the Southeastern USA. Pecan trees are tall (up to 30+ m), and managing disease in the upper canopy is problematic. Hedge pruning trees to ~12 m is being explored to facilitate efficacy of ground-based fungicide sprays, but resulting vigorous shoot growth...

  1. Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

    Rentschler, Jun E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analy...

  2. Pseudo Control Hedging and its Application for Safe Flight Envelope Protection

    Lombaerts, T.J.J.; Looye, G.H.N.; Chu, Q.P.; Mulder, J.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes how the previously developed concept of Pseudo Control Hedging (PCH) can be integrated in a Fault Tolerant Flight Controller (FTFC) as a safe flight envelope protection system of the first degree. This PCH algorithm adapts the reference model for the system output in case of

  3. A Portrait of Hedge Fund Investors: Flows, Performance and Smart Money

    G. Baquero; M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe explore the flow-performance interrelation by explicitly separating the investment and divestment decisions of hedge fund investors. The results show that different determinants and evaluation horizons underlie both decisions. While money inflows are sensitive to past long-run

  4. The Effect of Shortfall as a Risk measure for Portfolios with Hedge Funds

    Lucas, A.; Siegmann, A.H.

    2008-01-01

    Current research suggests that the large downside risk in hedge fund returns disqualifies the variance as an appropriate risk measure. For example, one can easily construct portfolios with nonlinear pay-offs that have both a high Sharpe ratio and a high downside risk. This paper examines the

  5. Institutional investor activism : Hedge funds and private equity, economics and regulation

    Mc Cahery, Joseph; Bratton, W.

    2015-01-01

    The increase in institutional ownership of recent decades has been accompanied by an enhanced role played by institutions in monitoring companies’ corporate governance behaviour. Activist hedge funds and private equity firms have achieved a degree of success in actively shaping the business plans of

  6. Myopic or Dynamic Liquidity Management? : A Study of Hedge Funds around the 2008 Financial Crisis

    Driessen, Joost; Xing, R.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we show that hedge funds repurchased a large amount of liquid stocks and continued to sell illiquid stocks as the 2008 financial crisis mitigated. It complements existing empirical evidence that institutional investors sold more liquid than illiquid assets during the crisis period.

  7. The Buyers’ Perspective on Security Design: Hedge Funds and Convertible Bond Call Provisions

    B.D. Grundy (Bruce); P. Verwijmeren (Patrick)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe provide evidence that security design reflects the interplay of capital supplier and security issuer preferences. While call provisions have historically been the default option in convertible security design, only a minority of post-2005 issues are callable. Because hedge funds

  8. [Life cycle of Gongylonema mucronatum Seurat, 1916, parasite of the African hedge-hog (author's transl)].

    Quentin, J C; Seguignes, M

    1979-01-01

    The Gongylonematid Nematode parasite of the Tunisian hedge-hog has been identified as Gongylonema mucronatum Seurat, 1916. The infective larva has been obtained from Locusta migratoria as intermediate host. The larval characters of this Gongylonema link it to the species G. pulchrum.

  9. A first look at measurement error on FIA plots using blind plots in the Pacific Northwest

    Susanna Melson; David Azuma; Jeremy S. Fried

    2002-01-01

    Measurement error in the Forest Inventory and Analysis work of the Pacific Northwest Station was estimated with a recently implemented blind plot measurement protocol. A small subset of plots was revisited by a crew having limited knowledge of the first crew's measurements. This preliminary analysis of the first 18 months' blind plot data indicates that...

  10. Monitoring Farmland Loss Caused by Urbanization in Beijing from Modis Time Series Using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Yuan, Y.; Meng, Y.; Chen, Y. X.; Jiang, C.; Yue, A. Z.

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we proposed a method to map urban encroachment onto farmland using satellite image time series (SITS) based on the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM). In this method, the farmland change process is decomposed into three hierarchical levels, i.e., the land cover level, the vegetation phenology level, and the SITS level. Then a three-level HHMM is constructed to model the multi-level semantic structure of farmland change process. Once the HHMM is established, a change from farmland to built-up could be detected by inferring the underlying state sequence that is most likely to generate the input time series. The performance of the method is evaluated on MODIS time series in Beijing. Results on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate that our method improves the change detection accuracy compared with the HMM-based method.

  11. Response of ground-nesting farmland birds to agricultural intensification across Europe: Landscape and field level management factors

    Guerrero, I.; Morales, M.B.; Onate, J.J.; Geiger, F.; Berendse, F.; Snoo, de G.R.

    2012-01-01

    European farmland bird populations have decreased dramatically in recent decades and agricultural intensification has been identified as the main cause contributing to these declines. Identifying which specific intensification pressures are driving those population trends seems vital for bird

  12. Research on Artificial Spider Web Model for Farmland Wireless Sensor Network

    Jun Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Through systematic analysis of the structural characteristics and invulnerability of spider web, this paper explores the possibility of combining the advantages of spider web such as network robustness and invulnerability with farmland wireless sensor network. A universally applicable definition and mathematical model of artificial spider web structure are established. The comparison between artificial spider web and traditional networks is discussed in detail. The simulation result shows that the networking structure of artificial spider web is better than that of traditional networks in terms of improving the overall reliability and invulnerability of communication system. A comprehensive study on the advantage characteristics of spider web has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the invulnerability research of farmland wireless sensor network.

  13. Experimental Garden Plots for Botany Lessons

    Gorodnicheva, V. V.; Vasil'eva, E. I.

    1976-01-01

    Discussion of the botany lessons used at two schools points out the need for fifth and sixth grade students to be taught the principles of plant life through observations made at an experimental garden plot at the school. (ND)

  14. Multi-Target Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements in Farmland Soil Based on the Environment-Ecological-Health Effect.

    Wang, Zhongyang; Meng, Bo; Zhang, Wei; Bai, Jinheng; Ma, Yingxin; Liu, Mingda

    2018-05-28

    There are potential impacts of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) (e.g., Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Zn, Hg, and Pb) in soil from the perspective of the ecological environment and human health, and assessing the pollution and risk level of soil will play an important role in formulating policies for soil pollution control. Lingyuan, in the west of Liaoning Province, China, is a typical low-relief terrain of a hilly area. The object of study in this research is the topsoil of farmland in this area, of which 71 soil samples are collected. In this study, research methods, such as the Nemerow Index, Potential Ecological Hazard Index, Ecological Risk Quotient, Environmental Exposure Hazard Analysis, Positive Matrix Factorization Model, and Land Statistical Analysis, are used for systematical assessment of the pollution scale, pollution level, and source of PTEs, as well as the ecological environmental risks and health risks in the study area. The main conclusions are: The average contents of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Zn, Ni, and Pb of the soil are 5.32 mg/kg, 0.31 mg/kg, 50.44 mg/kg, 47.05 mg/kg, 0.03 mg/kg, 79.36 mg/kg, 26.01 mg/kg, and 35.65 mg/kg, respectively. The contents of Cd, Cu, Zn, and Pb exceed the background value of local soil; Cd content of some study plots exceeds the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard Value (0.6 mg/kg), and the exceeding standard rate of study plots is 5.63%; the comprehensive potential ecological hazard assessment in the study area indicates that the PTEs are at a slight ecological risk; probabilistic hazard quotient assessment indicates that the influence of PTEs on species caused by Cu is at a slight level ( p = 10.93%), and Zn, Pb, and Cd are at an acceptable level. For the ecological process, Zn is at a medium level ( p = 25.78%), Cu is at a slight level (19.77%), and the influence of Cd and Pb are acceptable; human health hazard assessment states that the Non-carcinogenic comprehensive health hazard index HI = 0.16 natural source are 13

  15. PRP: a FORTRAN IV interactive plotting program

    Andrew, A. S.; Linde, J.

    A computer program, PRP, has been designed to plot any arithmetic combination selected from a set of major and trace element data on a y- x graph. y and x are defined and entered as a program string (y, x) which is interpreted sequentially. Operators ( +, -, ∗, /, ( unary) , square root, log 10, In c, antilog 10, exponential, integer, absolute value, (,),,) and integer or real numbers may be included. Axis lengths and scales are determined by the user. Five different plotting symbols are available.

  16. Split-plot designs for multistage experimentation

    Kulahci, Murat; Tyssedal, John

    2016-01-01

    at the same time will be more efficient. However, there have been only a few attempts in the literature to provide an adequate and easy-to-use approach for this problem. In this paper, we present a novel methodology for constructing two-level split-plot and multistage experiments. The methodology is based...... be accommodated in each stage. Furthermore, split-plot designs for multistage experiments with good projective properties are also provided....

  17. Development of TRatioPlot in ROOT

    Gessinger-Befurt, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The ROOT data analysis and visualization framework is a software package which is widely used in physics, especially in high energy physics. A common visualization which has so far been lacking a direct implementation is the ratio plot, as well as a few similar types of plots. The scope and goal of the summer student project at CERN was to implement a class in ROOT itself, that can take care of the most common types of calculations, and produces high quality visuals.

  18. Research on Artificial Spider Web Model for Farmland Wireless Sensor Network

    Jun Wang; Song Gao; Shimin Zhao; Guang Hu; Xiaoli Zhang; Guowang Xie

    2018-01-01

    Through systematic analysis of the structural characteristics and invulnerability of spider web, this paper explores the possibility of combining the advantages of spider web such as network robustness and invulnerability with farmland wireless sensor network. A universally applicable definition and mathematical model of artificial spider web structure are established. The comparison between artificial spider web and traditional networks is discussed in detail. The simulation result shows tha...

  19. Heavy metal contamination and ecological risk of farmland soils adjoining steel plants in Tangshan, Hebei, China.

    Yang, Liyun; Yang, Maomao; Wang, Liping; Peng, Fei; Li, Yuan; Bai, Hao

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the heavy metal concentrations and ecological risks to farmland soils caused by atmospheric deposition adjoining five industrial steel districts in Tangshan, Hebei, China. A total of 39 topsoil samples from adjoining these plants were collected and analyzed for Pb, Zn, Cu, Cr, and As. The geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and potential ecological risk index (PERI) were calculated to assess the heavy metal pollution level in soils. The results showed that the levels of Pb and As in farmland soils adjoining all steel plants were more than the background value, with the As content being excessively high. The Cr and Cu contents of some samples were over the background values, but the Zn content was not. In all the research areas, the largest Igeo value of the heavy metals was for As, followed by Pb, and the largest monomial PERI ([Formula: see text]) was As, which showed that the pollution of As in farmland soils was significant and had considerable ecological risk. Additionally, the heavy metal sequential extraction experiments showed that Pb and Cr, which exceeded the background value, were present in about 20% of the exchangeable and carbonate-bound fractions in the soils surrounding some steel plants. This would imply the risk of these heavy metals being absorbed and accumulated by the crops. Therefore, the local government needs to control the pollution of heavy metals in the farmland soils adjoining the steel plant as soon as possible, in order to avoid possible ecological and food safety risks.

  20. Characteristics of PAHs in farmland soil and rainfall runoff in Tianjin, China.

    Shi, Rongguang; Xu, Mengmeng; Liu, Aifeng; Tian, Yong; Zhao, Zongshan

    2017-10-14

    Rainfall runoff can remove certain amounts of pollutants from contaminated farmland soil and result in a decline in water quality. However, the leaching behaviors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with rainfall have been rarely reported due to wide variations in the soil compositions, rainfall conditions, and sources of soil PAHs in complex farmland ecosystems. In this paper, the levels, spatial distributions, and composition profiles of PAHs in 30 farmland soil samples and 49 rainfall-runoff samples from the Tianjin region in 2012 were studied to investigate their leaching behaviors caused by rainfall runoff. The contents of the Σ 16 PAHs ranged from 58.53 to 3137.90 μg/kg in the soil and 146.58 to 3636.59 μg/L in the runoff. In total, most of the soil sampling sites (23 of 30) were contaminated, and biomass and petroleum combustion were proposed as the main sources of the soil PAHs. Both the spatial distributions of the soil and the runoff PAHs show a decreasing trend moving away from the downtown, which suggested that the leaching behaviors of PAHs in a larger region during rainfall may be mainly affected by the compounds themselves. In addition, 4- and 5-ring PAHs are the dominant components in farmland soil and 3- and 4-ring PAHs dominate the runoff. Comparisons of the PAH pairs and enrichment ratios showed that acenaphthylene, acenaphthene, benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene, and fluoranthene were more easily transferred into water systems from soil than benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[ghi]perylene, and indeno[123-cd]pyrene, which indicated that PAHs with low molecular weight are preferentially dissolved due to their higher solubility compared to those with high molecular weight.

  1. Restoration of Prime Farmland Disturbed by Mineral Sand Mining in the Upper Coastal Plain of Virginia

    Schroeder, Philip D.

    1996-01-01

    Economic deposits of heavy mineral sand were identified in the late 1980's under prime farmland along the Upper Coastal Plain of Virginia. Mining in Virginia will commence in 1997 on the Old Hickory Deposit in Dinwiddie/Sussex Counties. Experiments were established on two mine pits representing two likely pit closure scenarios; regrading the surface with unprocessed subsoil (Pit 1) or filling to the surface with processed material (Pit 3). To evaluate topsoil replacement vs. organic amendment...

  2. Identifying effective actions to guide volunteer-based and nationwide conservation efforts for a ground-nesting farmland bird

    Santangeli, Andrea; Arroyo, Beatriz; Millon, Alexandre; Bretagnolle, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    Modern farming practices threaten wildlife in different ways, and failure to identify the complexity of multiple threats acting in synergy may result in ineffective management. To protect ground-nesting birds in farmland, monitoring and mitigating impacts of mechanical harvesting is crucial. Here, we use 6 years of data from a nationwide volunteer-based monitoring scheme of the Montagu's harrier, a ground-nesting raptor, in French farmlands. We assess the effectiveness of alternative nest pro...

  3. The influence of farmland pollution on the quality and safety of agricultural products

    Ma, Z. L.; Li, L. Y.; Ye, C.; Lin, X. Y.; B, C.; Wei

    2018-02-01

    The quality and safety of agricultural products is not only a major livelihood issues for people’s health, but also the main barriers to international trade of agricultural products nowadays. The soil is the foundation to the production of agricultural products and the guarantee of agricultural development. The farmland soil quality is directly related to the quality and safety of agricultural products. Our country’s soil has been polluted by a series of pollution, Such as the excessive discharge of industrial wastes, the encroachment of household waste, and the unreasonable use of pesticides and fertilizers. Soil degradation is a serious threat to the quality and safety of agricultural products, so eliminating soil degradation is the fundamental way out for quality and safety of agricultural products. By analyzing problems of the quality and safety of agricultural products in our country, and exploring the farmland soil influence on the quality and safety of agricultural products. This article provides a reference for improving the control level of quality and safety of agricultural products and the farmland soil quality.

  4. Prime farmland disturbance from coal surface mining in the corn belt, 1980-2000

    Bernard, D.P.

    1979-09-01

    The five midwestern states that make up the Corn Belt farm production region - Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio - contain about 110 billion tons of coal reserves (19% of which are surface mineable) and 110 million acres of arable land (69% of which are prime farmlands). In 1975, this region was the site of 21% of the nation's total coal production and 50% of the nation's corn and soybean harvest. Because corn and soybeans are key elements in US foreign trade and because nearly two-thirds of the regional coal production is from surface coal mines, it is important to understand the potential conflicts that may arise between the coal and agricultural industries in the Corn Belt. This report presents background data on the coal and agricultural industries in the Corn Belt states, along with the results of a quantitative analysis of the potential disruption of land and associated prime farmland due to future coal surface mining activity in the region. Estimates of potential land dusruptions indicate that 452,000 acres of land, including 127,000 acres of prime farmland, could be disturbed in the period 1980-2000. Additionally, the data indicate that certain counties in the Corn Belt states may experience impacts significantly greater than the regional average would suggest.

  5. Study of Application of Vinasse from Bio-ethanol Production to Farmland

    Chen, Yan; Shinogi, Yoshiyuki

    During bio-ethanol production from sugarcane molasses, large amounts of vinasse, which is strongly acidic with high COD and BOD, is produced as a by-product. Disposal of vinasse is one restrictive problem for sustainable bio-ethanol production. In this study, possible application of vinasse to farmland was investigated. First, the staple characteristics of vinasse were determined. Second, availability of nutrients such as nitrogen and potassium to crops and dynamics in the soil environment were studied in the laboratory, and crop growth experiments were carried out in the field. Farmland application of vinasse as a substitute for one third of the potassium showed no significant damage to the growth of red-radishes and tomatoes. When large amounts of vinasse are applied to farmland as a substitution for the nitrogen in traditional chemical fertilizers, nitrogen-hunger especially immediately after application is expected. In addition, it is necessary to take into consideration the leaching of ions and the dark material in the vinasse for proper timing of application and soil conditions.

  6. Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon and the Influencing Factors in An Oasis Farmland Area

    WANG Ze

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The soil organic carbon(SOC of a typical oasis farmland in middle part of Manasi county of Xinjiang was used as the research ob原 ject. Using remote sensing and lab analysis techniques, influences of soil texture, terrain, land uses, and crop types on SOC content of farmland were studied. Results showed that the SOC distribution in farmland of Manasi was mainly determined by comprehensive natural environmental factors. The SOC content decreased along with the increasing soil depth. For soil textures, the SOC content from high to low was clay loam>powder loam>silty loam. Slope direction had significantly positive correlations with SOC contents at 0~30 cm and 30~60 cm, while altitude and SOC content at 60~100 cm were significantly positive correlation. The SOC content of orchard was the highest, and the uncultivated land was the lowest under different land-use patterns. For different crop planting systems, the order of SOC content was corn field >wine grapes field>cotton field, and the difference was significant.

  7. [Edge influence of soil moisture at farmland-grassland boundary in agriculture-pasturage ecotone of northern China].

    Liu, Hong-lai; Zhang, Wei-hua; Wang, Kun; Zhao, Na

    2009-03-01

    In the agriculture-pasturage ecotone of Northern China, a typical zone with linear boundary of cropland and grassland was chosen to investigate its soil moisture regime, and the moving split-window technique was adopted to study the edge influence of soil moisture at the boundary. The results showed that the edge influence was 10 m, from 6 m within grassland and 4 m within cropland, and was categorized as the acute change type boundary. Accordingly, the farmland-grassland landscape boundary could be divided into three functional zones, i.e., grassland zone, farmland zone, and compositional ecotone zone. Soil moisture content varied abruptly in the ecotone zone, but presented linear distribution in both grassland zone and farmland zone. The average soil moisture content in grassland was about 1 g x g(-1) higher than that in farmland, which was mainly caused by the decreased capillary moisture capacity of farmland. Owing to the different vegetation cover, farmland and grassland had different transpiration and evaporation, which led to the diverse soil moisture regime, making soil water potential changed and water movement from one ecosystem to another possible.

  8. National pattern for heavy metal contamination of topsoil in remote farmland impacted by haze pollution in China

    Luo, Zhuanxi; Gao, Meirong; Luo, Xiaosan; Yan, Changzhou

    2016-03-01

    The influence of haze pollution on heavy metal transport into farmland topsoil has received little attention. This study reports on heavy metal concentrations in topsoil from remote farmland in China as well as the spatial similarity and correlation to such heavy metals in atmospheric particulate matter (APM). Heavy metal concentrations in topsoil from remote farmland significantly increased over time. Moreover, stations in the mid-eastern region of China accounted for greater than 55% of total stations that exhibited higher concentrations in 2010 than 2005. This spatial trend was consistent with changes observed in APM where mass concentrations of heavy metals were also found to be higher in the mid-eastern region of China. Heavy metals in APM have already likely caused contamination in remote farmland topsoil, particularly in the mid-eastern region of China. This is primarily due to long-range transport and deposition of APM owing that no pesticides or fertilizers have been used in the remote farmland stations selected and no industries were situated nearby. Regarding the large-scale, severe haze pollution occurring in China today, it is urgent to ascertain the accumulation of heavy metals in farmland topsoil resulting from APM as well as its subsequent potential mechanisms and ecological risks.

  9. Exploring the Dynamic Mechanisms of Farmland Abandonment Based on a Spatially Explicit Economic Model for Environmental Sustainability: A Case Study in Jiangxi Province, China

    Hualin Xie

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Farmland abandonment has important impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem recovery, as well as food security and rural sustainable development. Due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, farmland abandonment has become an increasingly important problem in many countries, particularly in China. To promote sustainable land-use management and environmental sustainability, it is important to understand the socioeconomic causes and spatial patterns of farmland abandonment. In this study, we explored the dynamic mechanisms of farmland abandonment in Jiangxi province of China using a spatially explicit economical model. The results show that the variables associated with the agricultural products yield are significantly correlated with farmland abandonment. The increasing opportunity cost of farming labor is the main factor in farmland abandonment in conjunction with a rural labor shortage due to rural-to-urban population migration and regional industrialization. Farmlands are more likely to be abandoned in areas located far from the villages and towns due to higher transportation costs. Additionally, farmers with more land but lower net income are more likely to abandon poor-quality farmland. Our results support the hypothesis that farmland abandonment takes place in locations in which the costs of cultivation are high and the potential crop yield is low. In addition, our study also demonstrates that a spatially explicit economic model is necessary to distinguish between the main driving forces of farmland abandonment. Policy implications are also provided for potential future policy decisions.

  10. A mixed C-vine copula model for hedging price and volumetric risk in wind power trading

    Pircalabu, Anca; Jung, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    correlation with the much more liquid German market to construct a proxy hedge. We propose a three-dimensional mixed vine copula to model the evolution of the Danish and German spot electricity prices and the Danish wind power production. We construct a realistic hedging portfolio by identifying various...... of not only forwards, but also a basket of e.g. call and put options. Illiquidity and an almost non-existent market for options challenge however the optimal hedging of joint price and volumetric risk in many market places. Here, we consider the case of the Danish power market, and exploit its strong positive...... instruments available in the market, such as real options in the form of the right to transfer electricity across the border and the right to convert electricity to heat. Using the proposed vine copula to determine optimal hedging decisions, we show that significant benefits are to be drawn by extending...

  11. New Comparative Experiments of Different Soil Types for Farmland Water Conservation in Arid Regions

    Yiben Cheng

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Irrigated farmland is the main food source of desert areas, and moisture is the main limiting factor of desert farmland crop productivity. Study on the influence of irrigation on desert farmland soil moisture can guide the agricultural water resource utilization and agricultural production in those regions. At present, the efficiency of irrigation water usage in Northwest China is as low as approximately 40% of the irrigated water. To understand the response of farmland soil moisture in different soil types on irrigation in the Ulan Buh Desert of Inner Mongolia of China, this experimental study takes advantage of different infiltration characteristics and hydraulic conductivities of sand, clay, and loam to determine an optimized soil combination scheme with the purpose of establishing a hydraulic barrier that reduces infiltration. This study includes three comparative experiments with each consisting of a 100 cm thick of filled sand, or clay, or loam soil underneath a 50 cm plough soil, with a total thickness of 150 cm soil profile. A new type of lysimeter is installed below the above-mentioned 150 cm soil profile to continuously measure deep soil recharge (DSR, and the ECH2O-5 soil moisture sensors are installed at different depths over the 150 cm soil profile to simultaneously monitor the soil moisture above the lysimeter. The study analyzes the characteristics of soil moisture dynamics, the irrigation-related recharge on soil moisture, and the DSR characteristics before and after irrigation, during the early sowing period from 2 April to 2 May 2017. Research results show that: (1 Irrigation significantly influences the soil moisture of 0–150 cm depths. The soil moisture increase after the irrigation follows the order from high to low when it is in the order of loam, sand, and clay. (2 Irrigation-induced soil moisture recharge occurs on all three soil combinations at 0–150 cm layers, and the order of soil moisture recharge from high to low

  12. 退耕还林工程驱动下的土地利用变化合理性研究——以云南芒市为例%The Rationality Evaluation of Land Use Changes in the Middle and Low Mountain Basin and Valley Area of Southwest Yunnan Province Driven by the National Project of Converting Farmland to Forest:A Case Study in Luxi City

    杨子生; 韩华丽; 朱玉碧; 赵乔贵

    2011-01-01

    In present study on land use/land cover change (LUCC), rationality analysis and evaluation of land use change has not been taken seriously. In particular, there is hardly any study on the theory and method system for evaluating rationality of land use change. By taking Luxi City as an example, which is located in the middle and low mountainous basin and valley area in southwest Yunnan, this paper has discussed the concept and connotation of rational degree of land use change and constructed the evaluation target, estimation method, and grading standard system for studying rational degree of land use change. Then, based on these, it has quantitatively analyzed and evaluated the rational degree of the change in every land use type and rational degree of the overall land use change driven by the nearly-eight-year Program of Converting Farmland to Forest in Luxi City. It aims to provide basic foundation for promoting the sustainable use of land resources in mountainous areas and scientific implementation of the Program of Converting Farmland to Forest. The evaluation results reveal the following facts: 1 ) During recent eight years, the whole city witnessed land use type changes in a total area of 77602.80 hm2. Rational degree ( RD value) of the change was only 48.98% while the irrational degree (ID value) was 51.02%, making the change at the "moderately rational" level. 2) Among all land use types, farmland, forest and waste grassland had the largest changes. Farmland was mainly changed into forest, garden plot and waste grassland, a result driven by the Program of Converting Farmland to Forest. During recent eight years, the whole city had 19661.07 hm2 of farmland converted to ecological uses. Of which, 18886. 09 hm2 were the farmland suitable for cultivation (farmland that "should not have been converted" ) and only 774. 98 hm2 were the farmland not suitable for cultivation ( farmland that "should be converted"). The nearly-eight-year Program of Converting

  13. SEGY to ASCII: Conversion and Plotting Program

    Goldman, Mark R.

    1999-01-01

    This report documents a computer program to convert standard 4 byte, IBM floating point SEGY files to ASCII xyz format. The program then optionally plots the seismic data using the GMT plotting package. The material for this publication is contained in a standard tar file (of99-126.tar) that is uncompressed and 726 K in size. It can be downloaded by any Unix machine. Move the tar file to the directory you wish to use it in, then type 'tar xvf of99-126.tar' The archive files (and diskette) contain a NOTE file, a README file, a version-history file, source code, a makefile for easy compilation, and an ASCII version of the documentation. The archive files (and diskette) also contain example test files, including a typical SEGY file along with the resulting ASCII xyz and postscript files. Requirements for compiling the source code into an executable are a C++ compiler. The program has been successfully compiled using Gnu's g++ version 2.8.1, and use of other compilers may require modifications to the existing source code. The g++ compiler is a free, high quality C++ compiler and may be downloaded from the ftp site: ftp://ftp.gnu.org/gnu Requirements for plotting the seismic data is the existence of the GMT plotting package. The GMT plotting package may be downloaded from the web site: http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/gmt/

  14. The Case for Gold Revisited: A Safe Haven Or A Hedge ?

    Sudi Apak

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to analyze the relation among gold prices and other macroeconomic and financial variables and addresses the question whether gold is a safe haven or a hedge for investors. The study investigates the relationship by using an econometric analysis for top gold exporter and importer countries, for a sample period of 11 years from 2000 to 2011. The results are twofold (i return of silver, USD returns and change in the volatility index influences gold returns positively whereas, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar returns influence gold returns negatively regardless of presence of the 2008 crisis. (ii In times of stress, our findings indicate that Swiss Franc, Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar function as haven whereas, on average, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and 10 year US treasuries function as a hedge against gold but the results show no evidence for the US dollar.  

  15. Robustness of Quadratic Hedging Strategies in Finance via Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps

    Di Nunno, Giulia; Khedher, Asma; Vanmaele, Michèle

    2015-01-01

    We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate-approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure with infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion or are cut off. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the approximation of the market prices and we derive an estimation of the model risk

  16. Renewable energy as a natural gas price hedge: the case of wind

    Berry, David

    2005-01-01

    Electric utilities use natural gas to fuel many of their power plants, especially those plants which provide electricity at peak and intermediate hours. Natural gas prices are highly volatile and have shown a general upward trend. Wind energy can provide a cost-effective hedge against natural gas price volatility or price increases. This conclusion is based on analysis of the costs of marginal conventional generation given the historical probability distribution of natural gas prices, the cost of wind energy, wind integration costs, transmission costs for wind energy, the capacity value of wind, and environmental benefits of wind energy for a hypothetical utility in the Southwestern United States. The efficacy of using wind energy as a hedge at a particular utility will depend on site specific conditions

  17. Testing Commodities as Safe Haven and Hedging Instrument on ASEAN's Five Stock Markets

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to analyze commodity market instruments such as gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI crude oil’s potential as hedge and safe haven toward some stock markets in South East Asia such as in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. To analyze the data, GARCH (1,1 was applied. The research findings showed that gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and WTI could not play their role as hedging instrument for five South East Asian capital markets. WTI could act as a robust safe haven for most South East Asian capital markets. Gold could do the role as a robust safe haven in Singapore and Malaysia, whereas, platinum and silver consistently could be safe haven only for Singapore Stock Exchange. Palladium could only be safe haven for Philippines Stock Exchange.

  18. Robustness of Quadratic Hedging Strategies in Finance via Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps

    Di Nunno, Giulia, E-mail: giulian@math.uio.no [University of Oslo, Center of Mathematics for Applications (Norway); Khedher, Asma, E-mail: asma.khedher@tum.de [Technische Universität München, Chair of Mathematical Finance (Germany); Vanmaele, Michèle, E-mail: michele.vanmaele@ugent.be [Ghent University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate-approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure with infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion or are cut off. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the approximation of the market prices and we derive an estimation of the model risk.

  19. Fuzzy linguistic hedges for the selection of manufacturing process for prosthetic sockets

    Richa Pandey

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a comparison is presented between two prime methods of producing prosthetic sockets by using the fuzzy linguistic hedges approach on the qualitative feedback of Indian prosthetic users. Recent trends indicate that the Indian manufacturers have tried to adopt the newer technologies like reverse engineering (RE approach to achieve the desired goals. However, the satisfaction of the user is of utmost importance for the unique and customized products for rehabilitation. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the manufacturing approaches, user case studies are taken, based on the linguistic feedbacks, and a comparative study is conducted. Thirteen users from four different manufacturing units are taken for study and sockets made by conventional as well as RE are experimented. Fuzzy membership functions are constructed using the linguistic hedges based on the user feedbacks. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP is applied to arrive at a decision to select the manufacturing process for user satisfaction and manufacturing excellence.

  20. The European Union, Financial Crises and the Regulation of Hedge Funds: A Policy Cul-de-Sac or Policy Window?

    David John Lutton

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available A series of financial crises involving hedge funds has created a general perception that action needs to be taken. A number of key member states and political actors favour tighter regulation. Traditional bureaucratic theory suggests that the European Commission would seek to maximise this ‘policy window’, and yet there remains no single unified European Union (EU regulatory framework specifically targeting hedge funds. The nature of the regulatory regime, which has generally demanded a ‘light touch’ approach, means there are strict limits the EU’s ability to act. From an EU perspective, hedge fund regulation appears to be a policy cul-de-sac. However, the relationship between hedge funds and financial crisis is complex and less straightforward than is often portrayed. Hedge fund regulation cannot, however, be considered in isolation but should be viewed in the context of a wider programme to integrate European financial services markets. Viewed from this perspective, EU regulation is in fact changing the landscape of the hedge fund industry through a process of negative integration.

  1. Optimization of multi-reservoir operation with a new hedging rule: application of fuzzy set theory and NSGA-II

    Ahmadianfar, Iman; Adib, Arash; Taghian, Mehrdad

    2017-10-01

    The reservoir hedging rule curves are used to avoid severe water shortage during drought periods. In this method reservoir storage is divided into several zones, wherein the rationing factors are changed immediately when water storage level moves from one zone to another. In the present study, a hedging rule with fuzzy rationing factors was applied for creating a transition zone in up and down each rule curve, and then the rationing factor will be changed in this zone gradually. For this propose, a monthly simulation model was developed and linked to the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm for calculation of the modified shortage index of two objective functions involving water supply of minimum flow and agriculture demands in a long-term simulation period. Zohre multi-reservoir system in south Iran has been considered as a case study. The results of the proposed hedging rule have improved the long-term system performance from 10 till 27 percent in comparison with the simple hedging rule, where these results demonstrate that the fuzzification of hedging factors increase the applicability and the efficiency of the new hedging rule in comparison to the conventional rule curve for mitigating the water shortage problem.

  2. Impact Of Foreign Currency Hedging On Firm Value Among Indian Corporates

    Gupta, Amit

    2016-01-01

    Indian economy was opened for globalization in 1991 and Indian Rupee was deregulated in 1993 and subjected to market fluctuations. Indian Rupee was very volatile during the past decade due to global events like US subprime crisis (2007-2009), European sovereign debt crisis, Oil prices fluctuations and Fed monetary policy speculations to name few. This volatility has put pressure on Indian firms to manage their foreign currency exposure. Hedging and use of Foreign Currency Derivatives (FCD) is...

  3. Using financial derivatives to hedge against currency risk : British large and medium-sized firms

    Nguyen, My

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, as a growing number of firms strive to conduct their business at international market place, currency risk has increasingly raised concern among financial mangers due to its substantial impact on companies’ financial results. Financial derivative instruments (Forward, Futures, Options, Swaps) are utilized as efficient hedging mechanisms against such an exchange rate exposure. The main objective of this study is to examine whether derivatives play a primary role in mitigating an adve...

  4. Derivatives Usage by Non-Financial Firms in Thailand; implications on the hedging strategy

    Chawla, Veerathep

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation is the result of the research carried out to investigate the derivatives usage in 65 non-financial companies across 8 specified industries in Thailand. The use of derivatives in Thailand is growing rapidly every year, our survey shows 75% of firms using derivatives in their hedging strategy. There is no significance in the use between Thai and Foreign companies in Thailand, while smaller firms do not use derivatives as much as larger firms, especially large listed companies....

  5. Making renewable energy competitive in India: Reducing financing costs via a government-sponsored hedging facility

    Farooquee, Arsalan Ali; Shrimali, Gireesh

    2016-01-01

    In India, a significant barrier to market-competitiveness of renewable energy is a shortage of attractive debt. Domestic debt has high cost, short tenors, and variable interest rates, adding 30% to the cost of renewable energy compared to renewable energy projects elsewhere. Foreign debt is as expensive as domestic debt because it requires costly market-based currency hedging solutions. We investigate a government-sponsored foreign exchange facility as an alternative to reducing hedging costs. Using the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) as a representative stochastic model of the INR–USD foreign exchange rate, we find that the expected cost of providing a currency hedge via this facility is 3.5 percentage points, 50% lower than market. This leads to an up to 9% reduction in the per unit cost of renewable energy. However, this requires the government to manage the risks related to unexpected currency movements appropriately. One option to manage these risks is via a capital buffer; for the facility to obtain India's sovereign rating, the capital buffer would need to be almost 30% of the underlying loan. Our findings have significant policy implications given that the Indian government can use this facility to make renewable energy more competitive and, therefore, hasten its deployment. - Highlights: • We analyze a government-sponsored foreign exchange facility in India. •We use geometric Brownian motion to represent the INR–USD exchange rate. •This facility can reduce the currency hedging costs by 50%. •This facility can reduce the levelized cost of renewable energy by 9%. •The capital buffer to reach India's sovereign rating is 30% of the original loan.

  6. The Impact of Portfolio Disclosure on Hedge Fund Performance, Fees and Flows

    Zhen Shi

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of portfolio disclosure on hedge fund performance. Using a regression discontinuity design, I investigate the effect of the disclosure requirements that take effect when an investment company's assets exceed $100 million; when that occurs, a fund is required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to submit form 13F disclosing its portfolio holdings. Consistent with the argument that portfolio disclosure reveals 'trade secrets' and also raises front r...

  7. (IAM Series No 005) Are “Market Neutral” Hedge Funds Really Market Neutral?

    Andrew Patton

    2004-01-01

    One can consider the concept of market neutrality for hedge funds as having breadth and depth: breadth reflects the number of market risks to which a fund is neutral, while depth reflects the completeness of the neutrality of the fund to market risks. We focus on market neutrality depth, and propose five different neutrality concepts. Mean neutrality nests the standard correlation-based definition of neutrality. Variance neutrality, Value-at-Risk neutrality and tail neutrality all relate to t...

  8. Martingale approach in pricing and hedging European options under regime-switching

    Grigori N. Milstein; Vladimir Spokoiny

    2011-01-01

    The paper focuses on the problem of pricing and hedging a European contingent claim for an incomplete market model, in which evolution of price processes for a saving account and stocks depends on an observable Markov chain. The pricing function is evaluated using the martingale approach. The equivalent martingale measure is introduced in a way that the Markov chain remains the historical one, and the pricing function satisfies the Cauchy problem for a system of linear parabolic equations. It...

  9. Coping With a Rising Power: Vietnam’s Hedging Strategy Toward China

    2018-03-01

    bandwagoning, or neutrality.”14 Roy thinks hedging may or may not involve balancing, as small states seek to maintain more than one strategic option...competitive Sino-US relations, Southeast Asian states have found substantial economic and diplomatic benefits “without over- betting on any options that...navigate between the balancing and bandwagoning spectrum, while maintaining its positive relations with great powers “without over- betting on any

  10. Risk Neutral Option Pricing With Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets

    Nassim N. Taleb

    2014-01-01

    Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both mor...

  11. The Buyers’ Perspective on Security Design: Hedge Funds and Convertible Bond Call Provisions

    Grundy, Bruce; Verwijmeren, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe provide evidence that security design reflects the interplay of capital supplier and security issuer preferences. While call provisions have historically been the default option in convertible security design, only a minority of post-2005 issues are callable. Because hedge funds dominate the market for new convertibles today and because convertible arbitrage is less risky without callability, the recent diminution in the frequency of call provisions in new convertible bond issu...

  12. The buyers’ perspective on security design: Hedge funds and convertible bond call provisions

    Grundy, Bruce D.; Verwijmeren, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    We provide evidence that security design reflects the interplay of capital supplier and security issuer preferences. While call provisions have historically been the default option in convertible security design, only a minority of post-2005 issues are callable. Because hedge funds dominate the market for new convertibles today and because convertible arbitrage is less risky without callability, the recent diminution in the frequency of call provisions in new convertible bond issues illustrat...

  13. The Dirichlet Portfolio Model: Uncovering the Hidden Composition of Hedge Fund Investments

    Korsos, Laszlo F.

    2013-01-01

    Hedge funds have long been viewed as a veritable "black box" of investing since outsiders may never view the exact composition of portfolio holdings. Therefore, the ability to estimate an informative set of asset weights is highly desirable for analysis. We present a compositional state space model for estimation of an investment portfolio's unobserved asset allocation weightings on a set of candidate assets when the only observed information is the time series of portfolio returns and the ca...

  14. 6th International Symposium on Recurrence Plots

    Jr, Jr; Ioana, Cornel; Marwan, Norbert

    2016-01-01

    The chapters in this book originate from the research work and contributions presented at the Sixth International Symposium on Recurrence Plots held in Grenoble, France in June 2015. Scientists from numerous disciplines gathered to exchange knowledge on recent applications and developments in recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis. This meeting was remarkable because of the obvious expansion of recurrence strategies (theory) and applications (practice) into ever-broadening fields of science. It discusses real-world systems from various fields, including mathematics, strange attractors, applied physics, physiology, medicine, environmental and earth sciences, as well as psychology and linguistics. Even readers not actively researching any of these particular systems will benefit from discovering how other scientists are finding practical non-linear solutions to specific problems. The book is of interest to an interdisciplinary audience of recurrence plot users and researchers interested in time...

  15. [Comparative quality measurements part 3: funnel plots].

    Kottner, Jan; Lahmann, Nils

    2014-02-01

    Comparative quality measurements between organisations or institutions are common. Quality measures need to be standardised and risk adjusted. Random error must also be taken adequately into account. Rankings without consideration of the precision lead to flawed interpretations and enhances "gaming". Application of confidence intervals is one possibility to take chance variation into account. Funnel plots are modified control charts based on Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory. The quality measures are plotted against their sample size. Warning and control limits that are 2 or 3 standard deviations from the center line are added. With increasing group size the precision increases and so the control limits are forming a funnel. Data points within the control limits are considered to show common cause variation; data points outside special cause variation without the focus of spurious rankings. Funnel plots offer data based information about how to evaluate institutional performance within quality management contexts.

  16. Application of mapped plots for single-owner forest surveys

    Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis Roesch

    2009-01-01

    Mapped plots are used for the nation forest inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service. Mapped plots are also useful foro single ownership inventoires. Mapped plots can handle boundary overlap and can aprovide less variable estimates for specified forest conditions. Mapping is a good fit for fixed plot inventories where the fixed area plot is used for both mapping...

  17. Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

    Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

  18. Descriptive Analysis on Flouting and Hedging of Conversational Maxims in the “Post Grad” Movie

    Nastiti Rokhmania

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This research is focused on analyzing flouting and hedging of conversational maxim of utterances used by the main characters in “Post Grad” movie. Conversational maxims are the rules of cooperative principle categorized into four categories; Maxim of Quality, Maxim of Quantity, Maxim of Relevance, and Maxim of Manner. If these maxims are used in conversations, the conversations can go smoothly. However, people often break the maxims overtly (flouting maxim and sometimes break the maxims secretly (hedging maxims when they make a conversation. This research is conducted using descriptive qualitative method based on the theory known as Grice’s Maxims. The data are in form of utterances used by the characters in “Post Grad” movie. The data analysis reveals some finding covering the formulated research question. The maxims are flouted when the speaker breaks some conversational maxims when using the utterances in the form of rhetorical strategies, such as tautology, metaphor, hyperbole, irony, and rhetorical question. On the other hand, conversational maxims are also hedged when the information is not totally accurate or unclearly stated but seems informative, well-founded, and relevant.

  19. Bet hedging based cooperation can limit kin selection and form a basis for mutualism.

    Uitdehaag, Joost C M

    2011-07-07

    Mutualism is a mechanism of cooperation in which partners that differ help each other. As such, mutualism opposes mechanisms of kin selection and tag-based selection (for example the green beard mechanism), which are based on giving exclusive help to partners that are related or carry the same tag. In contrast to kin selection, which is a basis for parochialism and intergroup warfare, mutualism can therefore be regarded as a mechanism that drives peaceful coexistence between different groups and individuals. Here the competition between mutualism and kin (tag) selection is studied. In a model where kin selection and tag-based selection are dominant, mutualism is promoted by introducing environmental fluctuations. These fluctuations cause reduction in reproductive success by the mechanism of variance discount. The best strategy to counter variance discount is to share with agents who experience the most anticorrelated fluctuations, a strategy called bet hedging. In this way, bet hedging stimulates cooperation with the most unrelated partners, which is a basis for mutualism. Analytic results and simulations reveal that, if this effect is large enough, mutualistic strategies can dominate kin selective strategies. In addition, mutants of these mutualistic strategies that experience fluctuations that are more anticorrelated to their partner, can outcompete wild type, which can lead to the evolution of specialization. In this way, the evolutionary success of mutualistic strategies can be explained by bet hedging-based cooperation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Pricing and hedging of arithmetic Asian options via the Edgeworth series expansion approach

    Weiping Li

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for arithmetic Asian options by using the Edgeworth series expansion. Our pricing formula consists of a Black-Scholes-Merton type formula and a finite sum with the estimation of the remainder term. Moreover, we present explicitly a method to compute each term in our pricing formula. The hedging formulas (greek letters for the arithmetic Asian options are obtained as well. Our formulas for the long lasting question on pricing and hedging arithmetic Asian options are easy to implement with enough accuracy. Our numerical illustration shows that the arithmetic Asian options worths less than the European options under the standard Black-Scholes assumptions, verifies theoretically that the volatility of the arithmetic average is less than the one of the underlying assets, and also discovers an interesting phenomena that the arithmetic Asian option for large fixed strikes such as stocks has higher volatility (elasticity than the plain European option. However, the elasticity of the arithmetic Asian options for small fixed strikes as trading in currencies and commodity products is much less than the elasticity of the plain European option. These findings are consistent with the ones from the hedgings with respect to the time to expiration, the strike, the present underlying asset price, the interest rate and the volatility.

  1. Semi-nonparametric VaR forecasts for hedge funds during the recent crisis

    Del Brio, Esther B.; Mora-Valencia, Andrés; Perote, Javier

    2014-05-01

    The need to provide accurate value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting measures has triggered an important literature in econophysics. Although these accurate VaR models and methodologies are particularly demanded for hedge fund managers, there exist few articles specifically devoted to implement new techniques in hedge fund returns VaR forecasting. This article advances in these issues by comparing the performance of risk measures based on parametric distributions (the normal, Student’s t and skewed-t), semi-nonparametric (SNP) methodologies based on Gram-Charlier (GC) series and the extreme value theory (EVT) approach. Our results show that normal-, Student’s t- and Skewed t- based methodologies fail to forecast hedge fund VaR, whilst SNP and EVT approaches accurately success on it. We extend these results to the multivariate framework by providing an explicit formula for the GC copula and its density that encompasses the Gaussian copula and accounts for non-linear dependences. We show that the VaR obtained by the meta GC accurately captures portfolio risk and outperforms regulatory VaR estimates obtained through the meta Gaussian and Student’s t distributions.

  2. PLOT3D Export Tool for Tecplot

    Alter, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    The PLOT3D export tool for Tecplot solves the problem of modified data being impossible to output for use by another computational science solver. The PLOT3D Exporter add-on enables the use of the most commonly available visualization tools to engineers for output of a standard format. The exportation of PLOT3D data from Tecplot has far reaching effects because it allows for grid and solution manipulation within a graphical user interface (GUI) that is easily customized with macro language-based and user-developed GUIs. The add-on also enables the use of Tecplot as an interpolation tool for solution conversion between different grids of different types. This one add-on enhances the functionality of Tecplot so significantly, it offers the ability to incorporate Tecplot into a general suite of tools for computational science applications as a 3D graphics engine for visualization of all data. Within the PLOT3D Export Add-on are several functions that enhance the operations and effectiveness of the add-on. Unlike Tecplot output functions, the PLOT3D Export Add-on enables the use of the zone selection dialog in Tecplot to choose which zones are to be written by offering three distinct options - output of active, inactive, or all zones (grid blocks). As the user modifies the zones to output with the zone selection dialog, the zones to be written are similarly updated. This enables the use of Tecplot to create multiple configurations of a geometry being analyzed. For example, if an aircraft is loaded with multiple deflections of flaps, by activating and deactivating different zones for a specific flap setting, new specific configurations of that aircraft can be easily generated by only writing out specific zones. Thus, if ten flap settings are loaded into Tecplot, the PLOT3D Export software can output ten different configurations, one for each flap setting.

  3. Intelligence Constraints on Terrorist Network Plots

    Woo, Gordon

    Since 9/11, the western intelligence and law enforcement services have managed to interdict the great majority of planned attacks against their home countries. Network analysis shows that there are important intelligence constraints on the number and complexity of terrorist plots. If two many terrorists are involved in plots at a given time, a tipping point is reached whereby it becomes progressively easier for the dots to be joined and for the conspirators to be arrested, and for the aggregate evidence to secure convictions. Implications of this analysis are presented for the campaign to win hearts and minds.

  4. Generalised recurrence plot analysis for spatial data

    Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Juergen; Saparin, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Recurrence plot based methods are highly efficient and widely accepted tools for the investigation of time series or one-dimensional data. We present an extension of the recurrence plots and their quantifications in order to study recurrent structures in higher-dimensional spatial data. The capability of this extension is illustrated on prototypical 2D models. Next, the tested and proved approach is applied to assess the bone structure from CT images of human proximal tibia. We find that the spatial structures in trabecular bone become more recurrent during the bone loss in osteoporosis

  5. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  6. Surveillance of Site A and Plot M

    Golchert, N.W.

    1991-05-01

    The results of the environmental surveillance program conducted at Site A/Plot M in the Palos Forest Preserve area for CY 1990 are presented. The surveillance program is the ongoing remedial action that resulted from the 1976-1978 radiological characterization of the site. That study determined that very low levels of hydrogen-3 (as tritiated water) had migrated from the burial ground and were present in two nearby hand-pumped picnic wells. The current program consists of sample collection and analysis of air, surface and subsurface water, and bottom sediment. The results of the analyses are used to determine the migration pathway of water from the burial ground (plot M) to the hand-pumped picnic wells, establish if buries radionuclides other than hydrogen-3 have migrated, and generally characterize the radiological environment of the area. Tritiated water continues to be detected in a number of wells, boreholes, dolomite holes, and a surface stream. Analyses since 1984 have indicated the presence of low levels of strontium-90 in water from a number of boreholes next to Plot M. The results of the surveillance program continues to indicate that the radioactivity remaining at Site A/Plot M does not endanger the health or safety of the public visiting the site or those living in the vicinity. 20 refs., 7 figs., 15 tabs

  7. Representing Uncertainty on Model Analysis Plots

    Smith, Trevor I.

    2016-01-01

    Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model.…

  8. Activities: Plotting and Predicting from Pairs.

    Shulte, Albert P.; Swift, Jim

    1984-01-01

    This teacher's guide provides objectives, procedures, and list of materials needed for activities which center around the use of a scatter plot to examine relationships shown by bivariate data. The activities are suitable for grades 7 to 12. Four student worksheets are included. (JN)

  9. Recurrence plot analysis of DNA sequences

    Wu Zuobing [State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 (China)]. E-mail: wuzb@lnm.imech.ac.cn

    2004-11-15

    Recurrence plot technique of DNA sequences is established on metric representation and employed to analyze correlation structure of nucleotide strings. It is found that, in the transference of nucleotide strings, a human DNA fragment has a major correlation distance, but a yeast chromosome's correlation distance has a constant increasing.

  10. Motivations for recreating on farmlands, private forests, and state or national parks.

    Sotomayor, Sandra; Barbieri, Carla; Wilhelm Stanis, Sonja; Aguilar, Francisco X; Smith, Jordan W

    2014-07-01

    This study explores the importance of different motivations to visit three types of recreational settings--farms, private forests, and state or national parks. Data were collected via a mail-back questionnaire administered to a stratified random sample of households in Missouri (USA). Descriptive and inferential statistics reveal both similarities and discontinuities in motivations for visiting farms, private forests, and state or national parks for recreation. Being with family, viewing natural scenery, and enjoying the smells and sounds of nature were all highly important motivations for visiting the three types of settings. However, all 15 motivations examined were perceived to be significantly more important for visits to state or national parks than to farms or private forests. Findings suggest that individuals are more strongly motivated to recreate at state and national parks relative to farmlands or forests. Post hoc paired t tests comparing motivations between both agricultural settings (farms and private forests) revealed significant differences in eight different recreational motivations. Individuals tended to place more importance on the ability to use equipment and test their skills when considering recreating on private forests. Conversely, social motivations (e.g., doing something with the family) were more important when individuals were considering recreating on farmland. Collectively, the findings suggest individuals expect distinctly different outcomes from their visits to farmlands, private forests, or state or national parks. Consequently, all three types of recreational settings have competitive advantages that their managers could capitalize on when making decisions about how to attract new visitors or produce the most desirable experiences for current recreationists.

  11. Surveillance of Site A and Plot M

    Golchert, N.W.

    1993-05-01

    The results of the environmental surveillance program conducted at Site A/Plot M in the Palos Forest Preserve area for CY 1992 are presented. The surveillance program is the ongoing remedial action that resulted from the 1976--1978 radiological characterization of the site. That study determined that very low levels of hydrogen-3 (as tritiated water) had migrated from the burial ground and were present in two nearby hand-pumped picnic wells. The current program consists of sample collection and analysis of air, surface and subsurface water, and bottom sediment. The results of the analyses are used to (1) determine the migration pathway of water from the burial ground (Plot M) to the hand-pumped picnic wells, (2) establish if buried radionuclides other than hydrogen-3 have migrated, and (3) generally characterize the radiological environment of the area. Hydrogen-3 in the Red Gate Woods picnic wells was still detected this year, but the average and maximum concentrations were significantly less than found earlier. Tritiated water continues to be detected in a number of wells, boreholes, dolomite holes, and a surface stream. For many years it was the only radionuclide found to have migrated in measurable quantities. Analyses since 1984 have indicated the presence of low levels of strontium-90 in water from a number of boreholes next to Plot M. The available data does not allow a firm conclusion as to whether the presence of this nuclide represents recent migration or movement that may have occurred before Plot M was capped. The results of the surveillance program continue to indicate that the radioactivity remaining at Site A/Plot M does not endanger the health or safety of the public visiting the site, using the picnic area, or living in the vicinity

  12. FLOWCHART; a computer program for plotting flowcharts

    Bender, Bernice

    1982-01-01

    The computer program FLOWCHART can be used to very quickly and easily produce flowcharts of high quality for publication. FLOWCHART centers each element or block of text that it processes on one of a set of (imaginary) vertical lines. It can enclose a text block in a rectangle, circle or other selected figure. It can draw a 'line connecting the midpoint of any side of any figure with the midpoint of any side of any other figure and insert an arrow pointing in the direction of flow. It can write 'yes' or 'no' next to the line joining two figures. FLOWCHART creates flowcharts using some basic plotting subroutine* which permit plots to be generated interactively and inspected on a Tektronix compatible graphics screen or plotted in a deferred mode on a Houston Instruments 42' pen plotter. The size of the plot, character set and character height in inches are inputs to the program. Plots generated using the pen plotter can be up to 42' high--the larger size plots being directly usable as visual aids in a talk. FLOWCHART centers each block of text on an imaginary column line. (The number of columns and column width are specified as input.) The midpoint of the longest line of text within the block is defined to be the center of the block and is placed on the column line. The spacing of individual words within the block is not altered when the block is positioned. The program writes the first block of text in a designated column and continues placing each subsequent block below the previous block in the same column. A block of text may be placed in a different column by specifying the number of the column and an earlier block of text with which the new block is to be aligned. If block zero is given as the earlier block, the new text is placed in the new column continuing down the page below the previous block. Optionally a column and number of inches from the top of the page may be given for positioning the next block of text. The program will normally draw one of five

  13. Identification of Potential Sources of Mercury (Hg) in Farmland Soil Using a Decision Tree Method in China.

    Zhong, Taiyang; Chen, Dongmei; Zhang, Xiuying

    2016-11-09

    Identification of the sources of soil mercury (Hg) on the provincial scale is helpful for enacting effective policies to prevent further contamination and take reclamation measurements. The natural and anthropogenic sources and their contributions of Hg in Chinese farmland soil were identified based on a decision tree method. The results showed that the concentrations of Hg in parent materials were most strongly associated with the general spatial distribution pattern of Hg concentration on a provincial scale. The decision tree analysis gained an 89.70% total accuracy in simulating the influence of human activities on the additions of Hg in farmland soil. Human activities-for example, the production of coke, application of fertilizers, discharge of wastewater, discharge of solid waste, and the production of non-ferrous metals-were the main external sources of a large amount of Hg in the farmland soil.

  14. Energy crop cultivations of reed canary grass - An inferior breeding habitat for the skylark, a characteristic farmland bird species

    Vepsaelaeinen, Ville [Finnish Museum of Natural History, P.O. Box 17, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-07-15

    Here, I present the first comparison of the abundance of farmland birds in energy grass fields and in cereal-dominated conventionally cultivated fields (CCFs). I demonstrate that in boreal farmland, skylark (Alauda arvensis) densities were significantly lower in reed canary grass (RCG) (Phalaris arundinacea) fields than in CCFs. I found that during the early breeding season RCG fields and CCFs are equally good habitats, but over the ensuing couple of weeks RCG rapidly grows too tall and dense for field-nesting species. Consequently, RCG is an inferior habitat for skylark for laying replacement clutches (after failure of first nesting) or for a second clutch after one successful nesting. The results imply that if RCG cultivation is to be expanded, the establishment of large monocultures should be avoided in farmland landscapes; otherwise the novel habitat may affect detrimentally the seriously depleted skylark population, and probably also other field-nesting bird species with similar breeding habitats. (author)

  15. Development of a rapid method for direct detection of tet(M) genes in soil from Danish farmland

    Agersø, Yvonne; Sengeløv, Gitte; Jensen, Lars Bogø

    2004-01-01

    . The tet(M) gene was directly detected in 10-80% of the samples from the various farmland soils and could be detected in all samples tested after selective enrichment. To validate the obtained results, the method was applied to garden soil samples where lower prevalence of resistance was found. Result......A method for direct detection of antibiotic resistance genes in soil samples has been developed. The tetracycline resistance gene, tet(M), was used as a model. The method was validated on Danish farmland soil that had repeatedly been treated with pig manure slurry containing resistant bacteria......: A detection limit of 10(2)-10(3) copies of the tet(M) gene per gram of soil (in a Bacillus cereus group bacterium) was achieved. tet(M) gene was detected in soil samples with the highest prevalence on farmland treated with pig manure slurry....

  16. Surface stabilization and revegetation test plots

    Sackschewsky, M.R.; Kemp, C.J.; Hayward, W.M.

    1993-09-01

    Westinghouse Hanford Company Decommissioning and Decontamination Engineering Group and Environmental Technology and Assessment Groups are developing new technologies to improve revegetation techniques for interim stabilization control over underground waste sites within the Radiation Area Remedial Action Program. Successful revegetation is an integral aspect of waste isolation strategy. Unfortunately, revegetation can be very difficult to achieve on the Hanford Site due to several factors: low annual precipitation, unpredictable timing of precipitation, low fertility of available soils, and coarse physical texture of soils covering waste sites. The tests in this report were performed during fiscal years 1992 and 1993 and include the use of two soil sealants in combination with bare soil and a soil/compost mixture and a comparison of a wheatgrass mixture and a native seed mixture. Hydroprobe access ports were placed in one-half of the test plots and moisture data was collected. Soil fertility and plant community characteristics were monitored during the two years of the test. During the first year all sites with compost provided additional fertility and retained greater amounts of soil moisture than noncomposted sites. The use of Enduraseal soil fixative provided greater soil moisture than the use of Aerospray-77 soil fixative. During the second year the use of compost and soil fixative's had a lesser effect on soil moisture. During late summer periods all treatments had very similar soil moisture profiles. The use of compost greatly increased vegetative cover and soil fertility in comparison to sites that had no compost added. Testing of the seed mixtures found that Siberian wheatgrass and Sandberg's bluegrass were the most dominant of the seeded species observed. All plots exhibited a dominant plant cover of volunteer cheatgrass. Biomass production was significantly greater on plots with compost than on the noncomposted plots

  17. FARMLAND. A dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial foodchains

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    Models to simulate the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial foods have been developed at NRPB and regularly used over the last 20 years. The foodchain model is named FARMLAND (Food Activity from Radionuclide Movement on LAND) and it contains a suite of submodels, each of which simulates radionuclide transfer through a different part of the foodchain. These models can be combined in various orders so that they can be used for different situations of radiological interest. The main foods considered are green vegetables, grain products, root vegetables, milk, meat and offal from cattle, and meat and offal from sheep. A large variety of elements can be considered, although the degree of complexity with which some are modelled is greater than that for others: isotopes of caesium, strontium and iodine are treated in greatest detail. This report gives an overview of the FARMLAND model with the aim of consolidating all the information on the model available in past NRPB publications. In addition, recent model developments are described. (Author)

  18. Geoelectrical Soil Properties of Farmlands Located on Ancient River Floodplains in EL Paso County Texas

    Pegues, J. G.; Kaip, G.; Doser, D. I.

    2013-12-01

    Farming in Rio Grande flood plain deposit soils has presented challenges concerning soil salinity, soil drainage and soil collapse. Typical soil forms include Saneli silted clay loam, Harkey loam, Harkey silky loam clay and Tigua silty clay. In the lower valley farmlands of Socorro, TX, cotton and alfalfa are the principal crops, but grain sorghum, corn and vegetable crops also are suitable. Pecan trees, as well as fruit trees suited to the climate, can be grown. Agrarians are faced with varying results of crop yields over relatively small stretches of land; for example, a 22 acre area can contain multiple soil inclusions. This study was conducted on a 22 acre tract of farmland which has recently undergone multiple geophysical testing analyses that include: magnetics, DC resistivity, gravity, and ground penetrating radar. Results will compare flood plain sedimentation qualities to agricultural soil classes through the identification of soil salinity and grain size. This investigation will focus on the testing of geo-electrical soil properties through resistivity assessment. Examination of the sight using a capacity coupled resistivity meter to measure the soil properties over various time periods will be conducted. The results will be compared with the other geophysical data to look for correlations that highlight soil properties.

  19. Spatial autocorrelation in farmland grasshopper assemblages (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in western France.

    Badenhausser, I; Gouat, M; Goarant, A; Cornulier, T; Bretagnolle, V

    2012-10-01

    Agricultural intensification in western Europe has caused a dramatic loss of grassland surfaces in farmlands, which have resulted in strong declines in grassland invertebrates, leading to cascade effects at higher trophic levels among consumers of invertebrates. Grasshoppers are important components of grassland invertebrate assemblages in European agricultural ecosystems, particularly as prey for bird species. Understanding how grasshopper populations are distributed in fragmented landscapes with low grassland availability is critical for both studies in biodiversity conservation and insect management. We assessed the range and strength of spatial autocorrelation for two grasshopper taxa (Gomphocerinae subfamily and Calliptamus italicus L.) across an intensive farmland in western France. Data from surveys carried out over 8 yr in 1,715 grassland fields were analyzed using geostatistics. Weak spatial patterns were observed at small spatial scales, suggesting important local effects of management practices on grasshopper densities. Spatial autocorrelation patterns for both grasshopper taxa were only detected at intermediate scales. For Gomphocerinae, the range of spatial autocorrelation varied from 802 to 2,613 m according to the year, depending both on grasshopper density and on grassland surfaces in the study site, whereas spatial patterns for the Italian locust were more variable and not related to grasshopper density or grassland surfaces. Spatial patterns in the distribution of Gomphocerinae supported our hypothesis that habitat availability was a major driver of grasshopper distribution in the landscape, and suggested it was related to density-dependent processes such as dispersal.

  20. Mapping Plastic-Mulched Farmland with Multi-Temporal Landsat-8 Data

    Hasituya

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Using plastic mulching for farmland is booming around the world. Despite its benefit of protecting crops from unfavorable conditions and increasing crop yield, the massive use of the plastic-mulching technique causes many environmental problems. Therefore, timely and effective mapping of plastic-mulched farmland (PMF is of great interest to policy-makers to leverage the trade-off between economic profit and adverse environmental impacts. However, it is still challenging to implement remote-sensing-based PMF mapping due to its changing spectral characteristics with the growing seasons of crops and geographic regions. In this study, we examined the potential of multi-temporal Landsat-8 imagery for mapping PMF. To this end, we gathered the information of spectra, textures, indices, and thermal features into random forest (RF and support vector machine (SVM algorithms in order to select the common characteristics for distinguishing PMF from other land cover types. The experiment was conducted in Jizhou, Hebei Province. The results demonstrated that the spectral features and indices features of NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index, GI (greenness index, and textural features of mean are more important than the other features for mapping PMF in Jizhou. With that, the optimal period for mapping PMF is in April, followed by May. A combination of these two times (April and May is better than later in the season. The highest overall, producer’s, and user’s accuracies achieved were 97.01%, 92.48%, and 96.40% in Jizhou, respectively.

  1. [Soil organic carbon fractionation methods and their applications in farmland ecosystem research: a review].

    Zhang, Guo; Cao, Zhi-ping; Hu, Chan-juan

    2011-07-01

    Soil organic carbon is of heterogeneity in components. The active components are sensitive to agricultural management, while the inert components play an important role in carbon fixation. Soil organic carbon fractionation mainly includes physical, chemical, and biological fractionations. Physical fractionation is to separate the organic carbon into active and inert components based on the density, particle size, and its spatial distribution; chemical fractionation is to separate the organic carbon into various components based on the solubility, hydrolizability, and chemical reactivity of organic carbon in a variety of extracting agents. In chemical fractionation, the dissolved organic carbon is bio-available, including organic acids, phenols, and carbohydrates, and the acid-hydrolyzed organic carbon can be divided into active and inert organic carbons. Simulated enzymatic oxidation by using KMnO4 can separate organic carbon into active and non-active carbon. Biological fractionation can differentiate microbial biomass carbon and potential mineralizable carbon. Under different farmland management practices, the chemical composition and pool capacity of soil organic carbon fractions will have different variations, giving different effects on soil quality. To identify the qualitative or quantitative relationships between soil organic carbon components and carbon deposition, we should strengthen the standardization study of various fractionation methods, explore the integrated application of different fractionation methods, and sum up the most appropriate organic carbon fractionation method or the appropriate combined fractionation methods for different farmland management practices.

  2. Splatterplots: overcoming overdraw in scatter plots.

    Mayorga, Adrian; Gleicher, Michael

    2013-09-01

    We introduce Splatterplots, a novel presentation of scattered data that enables visualizations that scale beyond standard scatter plots. Traditional scatter plots suffer from overdraw (overlapping glyphs) as the number of points per unit area increases. Overdraw obscures outliers, hides data distributions, and makes the relationship among subgroups of the data difficult to discern. To address these issues, Splatterplots abstract away information such that the density of data shown in any unit of screen space is bounded, while allowing continuous zoom to reveal abstracted details. Abstraction automatically groups dense data points into contours and samples remaining points. We combine techniques for abstraction with perceptually based color blending to reveal the relationship between data subgroups. The resulting visualizations represent the dense regions of each subgroup of the data set as smooth closed shapes and show representative outliers explicitly. We present techniques that leverage the GPU for Splatterplot computation and rendering, enabling interaction with massive data sets. We show how Splatterplots can be an effective alternative to traditional methods of displaying scatter data communicating data trends, outliers, and data set relationships much like traditional scatter plots, but scaling to data sets of higher density and up to millions of points on the screen.

  3. 9 CFR 108.3 - Preparation of plot plans.

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Preparation of plot plans. 108.3... LICENSED ESTABLISHMENTS § 108.3 Preparation of plot plans. Plot plans shall show all of the buildings on a... on the plot plan the use of immediate adjacent properties such as, residential area, pasture, box...

  4. Public lending to private hedge funds is inefficient, unstable, unconstitutional and unanimously disagreeable

    Sankarshan Acharya

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Public funds include federally insured deposits held under the custody of private banks, central bank loans and taxpayer funds. The principal finding of this paper is that lending such public funds through a private banking system to private hedge funds allied with the banks is inefficient, unstable, fundamentally unfair (unconstitutional and unanimously disagreeable. This finding is akin to the unanimously agreeable safe central banking policy (Acharya, 1991-2016 which, in dynamic general equilibrium, (a eliminates federal guarantee of bank deposits, (b offers every business enterprise and household an option to keep in the central bank any part of its deposits it wants to be held absolutely safely, (c completely deregulates all private banks without any privilege to rob public or private wealth like too-big-to-fail or too-big-to-be-jailed status or the power of market making and clearing. Safe central banking is the only way to make private banks responsible to hold sufficient capital to attract uninsured private deposits like the trading houses currently do. The private banks will then have complete freedom to lend their uninsured deposits to private hedge funds. The Volker Rule (NYT, January 30, 2010, incorporated in the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, is an infeasible and unworkable band-aid for the moral-hazard driven systemic robbery of wealth creators wrought by the government-ordained private banking custody of public funds. The established systemic moral-hazard problem can be efficiently and constitutionally resolved only through unanimously agreeable safe central banking. Current proposals on overhauling of Fannie and Freddie made by various pundits of systemic robbery amount to a gargantuan amount of public lending to private hedge funds and, hence, inefficient, unstable, unconstitutional and unanimously disagreeable.

  5. Using electricity options to hedge against financial risks of power producers

    Pineda Morente, Salvador; Conejo, Antonio J.

    2013-01-01

    or unexpected unit failures faced by power producers. A multi-stage stochastic model is described in this tutorial paper to determine the optimal forward and option contracting decisions for a risk-averse power producer. The key features of electricity options to reduce both price and availability risks......As a consequence of competition in electricity markets, a wide variety of financial derivatives have emerged to allow market agents to hedge against risks. Electricity options and forward contracts constitute adequate instruments to manage the financial risks pertaining to price volatility...

  6. Gold as an Infl ation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coefficient Framework

    Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes the question whether gold provides the ability of hedging against inflation from a new perspective. Using data for four major economies, namely the USA, the UK, the Euro Area, and Japan, we allow for nonlinearity and discriminate between long-run and time-varying short-run dynamics. Thus, we conduct a Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) approach for a sample period ranging from January 1970 to December 2011. Our main findings are threefold: First, we s...

  7. Gold as an Infl ation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coeffi cient Framework

    Joscha Beckmann; Robert Czudaj

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes the question whether gold provides the ability of hedging against inflation from a new perspective. Using data for four major economies, namely the USA, the UK, the Euro Area, and Japan, we allow for nonlinearity and discriminate between long-run and time-varying short-run dynamics. Thus, we conduct a Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) approach for a sample period ranging from January 1970 to December 2011. Our main findings are threefold: First, we s...

  8. Weather derivatives or how an energy company can hedge its weather risks

    Tahghighi, A.; Carpentier, Ph.

    2000-01-01

    This paper gives a detailed overview of weather derivatives and explains where this new class of financial products falls. The emergence of weather derivatives came about as a response to a need in the energy sector to hedge this sector's weather risks. This article focuses on the nature of these financial contracts, what they include and how they are priced. This article concludes by stating that energy companies in Europe can no longer afford to remain exposed to weather risks in an increasingly privatized and competitive market

  9. From research plots to prototype biomass plantations

    Kenney, W.A.; Vanstone, B.J.; Gambles, R.L.; Zsuffa, L. [Univ. of Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    1993-12-31

    The development of biomass energy plantations is now expanding from the research plot phase into the next level of development at larger scale plantings. This is necessary to provide: more accurate information on biomass yields, realistic production cost figures, venues to test harvesting equipment, demonstration sites for potential producers, and a supply of feedstock for prototype conversion facilities. The paper will discuss some of these objectives and some of the challenges encountered in the scale-up process associated with a willow prototype plantation project currently under development in Eastern Canada.

  10. Hedging to save face: a linguistic analysis of written comments on in-training evaluation reports.

    Ginsburg, Shiphra; van der Vleuten, Cees; Eva, Kevin W; Lingard, Lorelei

    2016-03-01

    Written comments on residents' evaluations can be useful, yet the literature suggests that the language used by assessors is often vague and indirect. The branch of linguistics called pragmatics argues that much of our day to day language is not meant to be interpreted literally. Within pragmatics, the theory of 'politeness' suggests that non-literal language and other strategies are employed in order to 'save face'. We conducted a rigorous, in-depth analysis of a set of written in-training evaluation report (ITER) comments using Brown and Levinson's influential theory of 'politeness' to shed light on the phenomenon of vague language use in assessment. We coded text from 637 comment boxes from first year residents in internal medicine at one institution according to politeness theory. Non-literal language use was common and 'hedging', a key politeness strategy, was pervasive in comments about both high and low rated residents, suggesting that faculty may be working to 'save face' for themselves and their residents. Hedging and other politeness strategies are considered essential to smooth social functioning; their prevalence in our ITERs may reflect the difficult social context in which written assessments occur. This research raises questions regarding the 'optimal' construction of written comments by faculty.

  11. Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

    Achim Koberstein

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates financial hedging decisions into the planning of strategic production networks under uncertain exchange rates and product demands. This model considers the expenses of production plants and the revenues of markets in different currency areas. Financial portfolio planning decisions for two types of financial instruments, forward contracts and options, are represented explicitly by multi-period decision variables and a multi-stage scenario tree. Using an illustrative example, we analyze the impact of exchange-rate and demand volatility, the level of investment expenses and interest rate spreads on capacity location and dimensioning decisions. In particular, we show that, in the illustrative example, the exchange-rate uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated by financial hedging in the presence of demand uncertainty. In this situation, we find that the integrated model can result in better strategic planning decisions for a risk-averse decision maker compared to traditional modeling approaches.

  12. Bayesian Nonparametric Measurement of Factor Betas and Clustering with Application to Hedge Fund Returns

    Urbi Garay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We define a dynamic and self-adjusting mixture of Gaussian Graphical Models to cluster financial returns, and provide a new method for extraction of nonparametric estimates of dynamic alphas (excess return and betas (to a choice set of explanatory factors in a multivariate setting. This approach, as well as the outputs, has a dynamic, nonstationary and nonparametric form, which circumvents the problem of model risk and parametric assumptions that the Kalman filter and other widely used approaches rely on. The by-product of clusters, used for shrinkage and information borrowing, can be of use to determine relationships around specific events. This approach exhibits a smaller Root Mean Squared Error than traditionally used benchmarks in financial settings, which we illustrate through simulation. As an illustration, we use hedge fund index data, and find that our estimated alphas are, on average, 0.13% per month higher (1.6% per year than alphas estimated through Ordinary Least Squares. The approach exhibits fast adaptation to abrupt changes in the parameters, as seen in our estimated alphas and betas, which exhibit high volatility, especially in periods which can be identified as times of stressful market events, a reflection of the dynamic positioning of hedge fund portfolio managers.

  13. Temporal variability and cooperative breeding: testing the bet-hedging hypothesis in the acorn woodpecker.

    Koenig, Walter D; Walters, Eric L

    2015-10-07

    Cooperative breeding is generally considered an adaptation to ecological constraints on dispersal and independent breeding, usually due to limited breeding opportunities. Although benefits of cooperative breeding are typically thought of in terms of increased mean reproductive success, it has recently been proposed that this phenomenon may be a bet-hedging strategy that reduces variance in reproductive success (fecundity variance) in populations living in highly variable environments. We tested this hypothesis using long-term data on the polygynandrous acorn woodpecker (Melanerpes formicivorus). In general, fecundity variance decreased with increasing sociality, at least when controlling for annual variation in ecological conditions. Nonetheless, decreased fecundity variance was insufficient to compensate for reduced per capita reproductive success of larger, more social groups, which typically suffered lower estimated mean fitness. We did, however, find evidence that sociality in the form of larger group size resulted in increased fitness in years following a small acorn crop due to reduced fecundity variance. Bet-hedging, although not the factor driving sociality in general, may play a role in driving acorn woodpecker group living when acorns are scarce and ecological conditions are poor. © 2015 The Author(s).

  14. Market completeness. How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector

    Willems, Bert; Morbee, Joris

    2010-01-01

    The high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when an increasing number of derivatives are introduced. It develops an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: a forward contract and an increasing number of options. We first show that aggregate welfare (the sum of individual firms' utility) increases with the number of derivatives offered, although most of the benefits are captured with one to three options. Secondly, power plant investments typically increase because additional derivatives enable better hedging of investments. However, the availability of derivatives sometimes leads to 'crowding-out' of physical investments because firms' limited risk-taking capabilities are being used to speculate on financial markets. Finally, we illustrate that players basing their investment decisions on risk-free probabilities inferred from market prices, may significantly overinvest when markets are not sufficiently complete. (author)

  15. Population densities and habitat use of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) in farmlands across the Balkan Peninsula

    Šálek, Martin; Červinka, J.; Banea, O. C.; Krofel, M.; Ćirović, D.; Selanec, I.; Penezić, A.; Grill, S.; Riegert, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2014), s. 193-200 ISSN 1612-4642 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Golden jackal * Acoustic monitoring * Population density * Habitat use * GIS * Farmland * Balkan Peninsula Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.634, year: 2014

  16. Scale-dependent habitat associations of a rapidly declining farmland predator, the Little Owl Athene noctua, in contrasting agricultural landscapes

    Šálek, Martin; Chrenková, M.; Dobrý, M.; Kipson, Marina; Grill, S.; Radovan, V.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 224, May (2016), s. 56-66 ISSN 0167-8809 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Farmland birds * Habitat associations * Spatial scales * Conservation * Grasslands * Farm buildings Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.099, year: 2016

  17. Opportunities within the Revised EU Common Agricultural Policy to Address the Decline of Farmland Birds: An Irish Perspective

    Daire Ó hUallacháin

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The loss of global biological diversity continues despite on-going conservation efforts. Agriculture is the major terrestrial land use in Europe and any conservation efforts to protect biological diversity must address sustainable use of these food production systems. Using Ireland, within the European Union policy framework, as an example, the declines in farmland birds are discussed. The opportunities afforded to farmland bird conservation as a result of the recent reform to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP are outlined. The potential for revised and refined CAP, specifically agri-environment schemes, to deliver benefits for biodiversity and for farmland bird species within Irish agricultural ecosystems is explored. Despite all the efforts to date and the significant resources invested in implementing agri-environment measures and schemes, few attempts have been made to collect monitoring and surveillance data with which to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of schemes, and measures that are designed to assist in the recovery of farmland biodiversity, including bird species, in Ireland.

  18. Analysis on the distribution characteristics and sources of soil heavy metals in suburban farmland in Xiangtan City

    Zhang, Yong; Sun, Xinxin

    2018-01-01

    The rapid development of the economy will inevitably have an impact on the farmland soil environment. The content of heavy metal is increasing day by day, and the heavy metal can enter people's body through different channels and endanger people's health. Based on agricultural land and crop types in accordance with the regional land use classification, using the method of the Single Factor Index and Comprehensive Pollution Index, the pollution status of heavy metals in farmland soil in the suburbs of Xiangtan city was studied and evaluated. At the same time, we use SPSS software to analyze the four heavy metal elements (Cu, Zn, As and Pb) and analyze their possible sources. The results showed that the farmland soils in Erhuan Road and Zhubu Port were polluted, and the farmland soil in Shuangma (an old industrial district) was not polluted; for different crop lands, orchards and vegetable lands were not contaminated, but rape and rice lands were contaminated. Pearson correlation analysis showed that Cu, As and Pb might come from the same pollution source, while Zn might come from other sources. Waste water from a chemical plant, crop types, automobile exhaust and other human factors may be important sources of soil pollution in agricultural fields.

  19. Forest-edge utilization by carnivores in relation to local and landscape habitat characteristics in central European farmland

    Šálek, Martin; Červinka, J.; Pavluvčík, P.; Poláková, S.; Tkadlec, Emil

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 79, č. 3 (2014), s. 176-182 ISSN 1616-5047 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Carnivores * Farmland * Forest-edge utilization * Landscape characteristics * Local characteristics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.478, year: 2014

  20. Mapping the extent of abandoned farmland in Central and Eastern Europe using MODIS time series satellite data

    Alcantara, Camilo; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Griffiths, Patrick; Hostert, Patrick; Knorn, Jan; Müller, Daniel; Sieber, Anika; Baumann, Matthias; Bragina, Eugenia V; Radeloff, Volker C; Prishchepov, Alexander V; Schierhorn, Florian

    2013-01-01

    The demand for agricultural products continues to grow rapidly, but further agricultural expansion entails substantial environmental costs, making recultivating currently unused farmland an interesting alternative. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to widespread abandonment of agricultural lands, but the extent and spatial patterns of abandonment are unclear. We quantified the extent of abandoned farmland, both croplands and pastures, across the region using MODIS NDVI satellite image time series from 2004 to 2006 and support vector machine classifications. Abandoned farmland was widespread, totaling 52.5 Mha, particularly in temperate European Russia (32 Mha), northern and western Ukraine, and Belarus. Differences in abandonment rates among countries were striking, suggesting that institutional and socio-economic factors were more important in determining the amount of abandonment than biophysical conditions. Indeed, much abandoned farmland occurred in areas without major constraints for agriculture. Our map provides a basis for assessing the potential of Central and Eastern Europe’s abandoned agricultural lands to contribute to food or bioenergy production, or carbon storage, as well as the environmental trade-offs and social constraints of recultivation. (letter)

  1. Why it makes more sense to invest in farmers than in farmland

    Cotula, Lorenzo

    2010-07-15

    Two years since the media spotlight turned on the so-called 'land grab' – whereby agribusiness, investment funds and government agencies acquire farmland in Africa, Latin America and Asia – the debate rages on. And rightly so. Private sector expectations of higher food and commodity prices and government concerns about longer-term food and energy security have made land a more attractive asset. But land is central to livelihoods, culture and identity for millions across the developing world. And large-scale land acquisitions can have lasting repercussions for the future of agriculture, including both agribusiness and family farming. Rather than rushing into land deals, governments and investors should properly consider the wider range of options to invest in agriculture. In many parts of the world, family farmers have proved efficient and dynamic. Working with them can generate healthy returns, avoid the risks associated with land acquisitions, and improve farmers' livelihoods.

  2. Use of cone penetrometer data to evaluate prime farmland rooting media

    Dunker, R.E.; Vance, S.L.; Hooks, C.L.; Darmody, R.G.

    1994-01-01

    Reclamation of prime farmlands after mining includes various methods of excavation, transportation, and placement affecting the physical properties of the reconstructed soil. Poor soil physical conditions has proved to be the most severe and difficult limiting factor in the reclamation of prime soils. Deep tillage has become a practice accepted by the mining industry as a final step in the reclamation process for row-crop acreage. The penetrometer can be an important management tool for the mine operator to assess levels of soil compaction resulting from soil reconstruction and to evaluate the effectiveness and depth of deep tillage operations. Soil strength measurement with the deep profile penetrometer is shown to be a viable method in assessing long term yield potential of mined land when chemical and plant nutritional variables are not yield limiting

  3. Hypothetical Outcome Plots Outperform Error Bars and Violin Plots for Inferences about Reliability of Variable Ordering.

    Hullman, Jessica; Resnick, Paul; Adar, Eytan

    2015-01-01

    Many visual depictions of probability distributions, such as error bars, are difficult for users to accurately interpret. We present and study an alternative representation, Hypothetical Outcome Plots (HOPs), that animates a finite set of individual draws. In contrast to the statistical background required to interpret many static representations of distributions, HOPs require relatively little background knowledge to interpret. Instead, HOPs enables viewers to infer properties of the distribution using mental processes like counting and integration. We conducted an experiment comparing HOPs to error bars and violin plots. With HOPs, people made much more accurate judgments about plots of two and three quantities. Accuracy was similar with all three representations for most questions about distributions of a single quantity.

  4. Hypothetical Outcome Plots Outperform Error Bars and Violin Plots for Inferences about Reliability of Variable Ordering.

    Jessica Hullman

    Full Text Available Many visual depictions of probability distributions, such as error bars, are difficult for users to accurately interpret. We present and study an alternative representation, Hypothetical Outcome Plots (HOPs, that animates a finite set of individual draws. In contrast to the statistical background required to interpret many static representations of distributions, HOPs require relatively little background knowledge to interpret. Instead, HOPs enables viewers to infer properties of the distribution using mental processes like counting and integration. We conducted an experiment comparing HOPs to error bars and violin plots. With HOPs, people made much more accurate judgments about plots of two and three quantities. Accuracy was similar with all three representations for most questions about distributions of a single quantity.

  5. Nitrate-Nitrogen Leaching and Modeling in Intensive Agriculture Farmland in China

    Xu, Ligang; Xu, Jin

    2013-01-01

    Protecting water resources from nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) contamination is an important public health concern and a major national environmental issue in China. Loss of NO3-N in soils due to leaching is not only one of the most important problems in agriculture farming, but is also the main factor causing nitrogen pollution in aquatic environments. Three typical intensive agriculture farmlands in Jiangyin City in China are selected as a case study for NO3-N leaching and modeling in the soil profile. In this study, the transport and fate of NO3-N within the soil profile and nitrate leaching to drains were analyzed by comparing field data with the simulation results of the LEACHM model. Comparisons between measured and simulated data indicated that the NO3-N concentrations in the soil and nitrate leaching to drains are controlled by the fertilizer practice, the initial conditions and the rainfall depth and distribution. Moreover, the study reveals that the LEACHM model gives a fair description of the NO3-N dynamics in the soil and subsurface drainage at the field scale. It can also be concluded that the model after calibration is a useful tool to optimize as a function of the combination “climate-crop-soil-bottom boundary condition” the nitrogen application strategy resulting for the environment in an acceptable level of nitrate leaching. The findings in this paper help to demonstrate the distribution and migration of nitrogen in intensive agriculture farmlands, as well as to explore the mechanism of groundwater contamination resulting from agricultural activities. PMID:23983629

  6. Modeling Regional Soil Water Balance in Farmland of the Middle Reaches of Heihe River Basin

    Jiang Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying components of soil water balance in farmland of the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin is essential for efficiently scheduling and allocating limited water resources for irrigation in this arid region. A soil water balance model based on empirical assumptions in the vadose zone of farmland was developed and simulation results were compared/validated with results by the numerical model HYDRUS-1D. Results showed a good coherence between the simulated results of the water balance models and the HYDRUS-1D model in soil water storage, evapotranspiration, deep percolation and groundwater recharge, which indicated that the water balance model was suitable for simulating soil water movement in the study area. Considering the spatial distribution of cropping patterns, groundwater depth and agricultural management, ArcGIS was applied for the pre-/post-processing of the water balance model to quantify the spatial distribution of components of soil water balance in the major cropland in middle reaches of Heihe River Basin. Then, distributions of components of soil water balance in the major cropland under different water-saving irrigation practices during the growing season were predicted and discussed. Simulation results demonstrated that evapotranspiration of the main crops would be more prominently influenced by irrigation quota under deep groundwater depth than that under shallow groundwater depth. Groundwater recharge would increase with the increase of irrigation quota and decrease with the increase of groundwater depth. In general, when groundwater depth reached 3 m, groundwater recharge from root zone was negligible for spring wheat. While when it reached 6 m, groundwater recharge was negligible for maize. Water-saving irrigation practices would help to reduce groundwater recharge with a slight decrease of crop water consumption.

  7. Nitrate-Nitrogen Leaching and Modeling in Intensive Agriculture Farmland in China

    Ligang Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Protecting water resources from nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N contamination is an important public health concern and a major national environmental issue in China. Loss of NO3-N in soils due to leaching is not only one of the most important problems in agriculture farming, but is also the main factor causing nitrogen pollution in aquatic environments. Three typical intensive agriculture farmlands in Jiangyin City in China are selected as a case study for NO3-N leaching and modeling in the soil profile. In this study, the transport and fate of NO3-N within the soil profile and nitrate leaching to drains were analyzed by comparing field data with the simulation results of the LEACHM model. Comparisons between measured and simulated data indicated that the NO3-N concentrations in the soil and nitrate leaching to drains are controlled by the fertilizer practice, the initial conditions and the rainfall depth and distribution. Moreover, the study reveals that the LEACHM model gives a fair description of the NO3-N dynamics in the soil and subsurface drainage at the field scale. It can also be concluded that the model after calibration is a useful tool to optimize as a function of the combination “climate-crop-soil-bottom boundary condition” the nitrogen application strategy resulting for the environment in an acceptable level of nitrate leaching. The findings in this paper help to demonstrate the distribution and migration of nitrogen in intensive agriculture farmlands, as well as to explore the mechanism of groundwater contamination resulting from agricultural activities.

  8. Evaluating and predicting the effectiveness of farmland consolidation on improving agricultural productivity in China

    Xiang, Xiaomin; Gan, Le; Yang, Xuhong; Zhang, Zhihong; Zhou, Yinkang

    2018-01-01

    Food security has always been a focus issue in China. Farmland consolidation (FC) was regarded as a critical way to increase the quantity and improve the quality of farmland to ensure food security by Chinese government. FC projects have been nationwide launched, however few studies focused on evaluating the effectiveness of FC at a national scale. As such, an efficient way to evaluate the effectiveness of FC on improving agricultural productivity in China will be needed and it is critical for future national land consolidation planning. In this study, we selected 7505 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2013 with good quality Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as samples to evaluate the effectiveness of FC. We used time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI from 2001 to 2013, to extract four indicators to characterize agricultural productivity change of 4442 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2010, i.e., productivity level (PL), productivity variation (PV), productivity potential (PP), and multi-cropping index (MI). On this basis, we further predicted the same four characteristics for 3063 FC projects completed between 2011 and 2013, respectively, using Support Vector Machines (SVM). We found FC showed an overall effective status on improving agricultural productivity between 2006 and 2013 in China, especially on upgrading PL and improving PP. The positive effect was more prominent in the southeast and eastern China. It is noteworthy that 27.30% of all the 7505 projects were still ineffective on upgrading PL, the elementary improvement of agricultural productivity. Finally, we proposed that location-specific factors should be taken into consideration for launching FC projects and diverse financial sources are also needed for supporting FC. The results provide a reference for government to arrange FC projects reasonably and to formulate land consolidation planning in a proper way that better improve the effectiveness of FC

  9. Evaluating and predicting the effectiveness of farmland consolidation on improving agricultural productivity in China.

    Fan, Yeting; Jin, Xiaobin; Xiang, Xiaomin; Gan, Le; Yang, Xuhong; Zhang, Zhihong; Zhou, Yinkang

    2018-01-01

    Food security has always been a focus issue in China. Farmland consolidation (FC) was regarded as a critical way to increase the quantity and improve the quality of farmland to ensure food security by Chinese government. FC projects have been nationwide launched, however few studies focused on evaluating the effectiveness of FC at a national scale. As such, an efficient way to evaluate the effectiveness of FC on improving agricultural productivity in China will be needed and it is critical for future national land consolidation planning. In this study, we selected 7505 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2013 with good quality Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as samples to evaluate the effectiveness of FC. We used time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI from 2001 to 2013, to extract four indicators to characterize agricultural productivity change of 4442 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2010, i.e., productivity level (PL), productivity variation (PV), productivity potential (PP), and multi-cropping index (MI). On this basis, we further predicted the same four characteristics for 3063 FC projects completed between 2011 and 2013, respectively, using Support Vector Machines (SVM). We found FC showed an overall effective status on improving agricultural productivity between 2006 and 2013 in China, especially on upgrading PL and improving PP. The positive effect was more prominent in the southeast and eastern China. It is noteworthy that 27.30% of all the 7505 projects were still ineffective on upgrading PL, the elementary improvement of agricultural productivity. Finally, we proposed that location-specific factors should be taken into consideration for launching FC projects and diverse financial sources are also needed for supporting FC. The results provide a reference for government to arrange FC projects reasonably and to formulate land consolidation planning in a proper way that better improve the effectiveness of FC.

  10. A national-scale model of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity.

    Sullivan, Martin J P; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Newson, Stuart E; Scholefield, Paul; Brereton, Tom; Oliver, Tom H

    2017-12-01

    Modelling species distribution and abundance is important for many conservation applications, but it is typically performed using relatively coarse-scale environmental variables such as the area of broad land-cover types. Fine-scale environmental data capturing the most biologically relevant variables have the potential to improve these models. For example, field studies have demonstrated the importance of linear features, such as hedgerows, for multiple taxa, but the absence of large-scale datasets of their extent prevents their inclusion in large-scale modelling studies.We assessed whether a novel spatial dataset mapping linear and woody-linear features across the UK improves the performance of abundance models of 18 bird and 24 butterfly species across 3723 and 1547 UK monitoring sites, respectively.Although improvements in explanatory power were small, the inclusion of linear features data significantly improved model predictive performance for many species. For some species, the importance of linear features depended on landscape context, with greater importance in agricultural areas. Synthesis and applications . This study demonstrates that a national-scale model of the extent and distribution of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. The ability to model spatial variability in the role of linear features such as hedgerows will be important in targeting agri-environment schemes to maximally deliver biodiversity benefits. Although this study focuses on farmland, data on the extent of different linear features are likely to improve species distribution and abundance models in a wide range of systems and also can potentially be used to assess habitat connectivity.

  11. Contour plotting programs for printer and Calcomp plotter

    Moller, P.

    1980-07-01

    Contour plotting programs for plotting contour diagrams on printers or Calcomp plotters are described. The subroutines also exist in versions that are useful for the special application of finding minima and saddlepoints of nuclear potential energy surfaces generated by the subroutine PETR3 of another program package. For the general user, however, the most interesting aspect of the plotting package is probably the possibility of generating printer contour plots. The plotting of printer contour plots is a very fast and convenient way of displaying two-dimensional functions. 3 figures

  12. Hedging customers.

    Dhar, Ravi; Glazer, Rashi

    2003-05-01

    You are a marketing director with $5 million to invest in customer acquisition and retention. Which customers do you acquire, and which do you retain? Up to a point, the choice is obvious: Keep the consistent big spenders and lose the erratic small ones. But what about the erratic big spenders and the consistent small ones? It's often unclear whether you should acquire or retain them and at what cost. Businesses have begun dealing with unpredictable customer behavior by following the practices of sophisticated investors who own portfolios comprising dozens of stocks with different, indeed divergent, histories and prospects. Each portfolio is diversified so as to produce the investor's desired returns at the particular level of uncertainty he or she can tolerate. Customers, too, are assets--risky assets. As with stocks, the cost of acquiring them is supposed to reflect the cash-flow values they are likely to generate. The authors explain how to construct a portfolio based on the notion that a customer's risk-adjusted lifetime value depends on its anticipated effect on the riskiness of the group it is joining. They also show how this approach was used to identify the best prospects for Myron Corporation, a global leader in the personalized business-gift industry. The concept of risk-adjusted lifetime value has a transforming power: For companies that rely on it, product managers will be replaced by customer managers, and the current method of accounting for profit and loss--which is by product--will be replaced by one that determines each customer's P&L. Once adjusted for risk, those P&Ls will become the firm's key performance and operational metric.

  13. FLOWPLOT2, 2-D, 3-D Fluid Dynamic Plots

    Cobb, C.K.; Tunstall, J.N.

    1989-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: FLOWPLOT2 is a plotting program used with numerical or analytical fluid dynamics codes to create velocity vector plots, contour plots of up to three fluid parameters (e.g. pressure, density, and temperature), two-dimensional profile plots, three-dimensional curve plots, and/or three-dimensional surface plots for either the u or v velocity components. If the fluid dynamics code computes a transient or simulated time related solution, FLOWPLOT2 can also be used to generate these plots for any specified time interval. Multiple cases generating different plots for different time intervals may be run in one execution of the program. In addition, plots can be created for selected two- dimensional planes of three-dimensional steady-state problems. The user has the option of producing plots on CalComp or Versatec plotters or microfiche and of creating a compressed dataset before plotting. 2 - Method of solution: FLOWPLOT2 reads a dataset written by the fluid dynamics code. This dataset must be written in a specified format and must contain parametric data at the nodal points of a uniform or non-uniform rectangular grid formed by the intersection of the grid lines of the model. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 2500 nodes, 40 y-values for 2-D profile plots and 3-D curve plots, 20 contour values, 3 fluid parameters

  14. Tracker Alignment Performance Plots after Commissioning

    CMS Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    During the LHC shutdown in Winter 2016/17, the CMS pixel detector, the inner component of the CMS Tracker, was replaced by the Phase-1 upgrade detector. Among others improvements, the new pixel detector consists of four instead of three layers in the central barrel region (BPIX) and three instead of two disks in the endcap regions (FPIX). In this report, performance plots of pixel detector alignment results are presented, which were obtained with both cosmic-ray and pp collision data acquired at the beginning of the 2017 LHC operation. Alignment constants have been derived for each data-taking period to the level of single module positions in both the pixel and the strip detectors. The complete understanding of the alignment and biases was derived by using two algorithms, Millepede-II and HipPy. The results confirm each other.

  15. Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk

    Stevens, R.S.P.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Melenberg, B.

    2011-01-01

    Payments of life insurance products depend on the uncertain future evolution of survival probabilities. This uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. Existing literature shows that the effect of longevity risk on single life annuities can be substantial, and that there exists a (natural) hedge

  16. Severity of scab and its effects on fruit weight in mechanically hedge-pruned and topped pecan trees

    Scab is the most damaging disease of pecan in the southeastern USA. Pecan trees can attain 44 m in height, so managing disease in the upper canopy is a problem. Fungicide is ordinarily applied using ground-based air-blast sprayers. Although mechanical hedge-pruning and topping of pecan is done for s...

  17. Rhetorical Impact through Hedging Devices in the "Results and Discussion" Part of a Civil Engineering Research Article

    Khamesian, Minoo

    2015-01-01

    It is common knowledge that hedging devices as a rhetorical technique common in all persuasive writing are considerably important in scientific discourse, for they are tools which facilitate presenting claims or arguments in a polite, acceptable and respectful manner. In addition, they are discoursal resources available to a scientific writer's…

  18. Rooting stem cuttings of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) utilizing hedged stump sprouts formed on recently felled trees

    Matthew H. Gocke; Daniel J. Robinson

    2010-01-01

    The ability to root stem cuttings collected from hedged stump sprouts formed on recently felled trees was evaluated for 26 codominant northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) trees growing in Durham County, NC. Sprouting occurred, the same year as felling, on 23 of the 26 tree stumps and sprout number was significantly and positively correlated with stump diameter. The...

  19. Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market

    Zant, W.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates a hypothetical hedging scheme in a domestic commodity market under which a commodity board offers a forward contract to domestic producers and local traders and covers its commitments on an international futures exchange. It is aimed to quantify welfare gains to agents in the

  20. PLOT-3D, Graphics Subroutines for 3-D Surface Plots with Arbitrary Rotations

    Basinger, D.; Gvildys, J.

    1975-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: PLOT-3D is a package of sub- programs designed to draw three-dimensional surfaces from arrays of points (x,y,z). The surfaces can be drawn after arbitrary rotations about the three coordinate axes. 2 - Method of solution: PLOT-3D is a computer program to plot any surface for which each coordinate pair (x,y) is associated with a unique z in the set of points (x,y,z). It uses matrix transformation of the points to generate different views of the surface after arbitrary rotations about the three coordinate axes. Four versions of PLOT-3D are available. Output of version 1 and 3 is by film recorder. Output of version 2 and 4 is by CalComp plotter. Versions 3 and 4 do not draw lines which would be invisible to a viewer looking at an opaque surface, whereas versions 1 and 2 draw every line on the surface. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Versions 3 and 4 limit number of rows in arrays (x,y,z) to 100 and also number of columns in arrays (x,y,z) to 100

  1. Variability of Measured Runoff and Soil Loss from Field Plots

    F. Asadzadeh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Field plots are widely used in studies related to the measurements of soil loss and modeling of erosion processes. Research efforts are needed to investigate factors affecting the data quality of plots. Spatial scale or size of plots is one of these factors which directly affects measuring runoff and soil loss by means of field plots. The effect of plot size on measured runoff or soil loss from natural plots is known as plot scale effect. On the other hand, variability of runoff and sediment yield from replicated filed plots is a main source of uncertainty in measurement of erosion from plots which should be considered in plot data interpretation processes. Therefore, there is a demand for knowledge of soil erosion processes occurring in plots of different sizes and of factors that determine natural variability, as a basis for obtaining soil loss data of good quality. This study was carried out to investigate the combined effects of these two factors by measurement of runoff and soil loss from replicated plots with different sizes. Materials and Methods: In order to evaluate the variability of runoff and soil loss data seven plots, differing in width and length, were constructed in a uniform slope of 9% at three replicates at Koohin Research Station in Qazvin province. The plots were ploughed up to down slope in September 2011. Each plot was isolated using soil beds with a height of 30 cm, to direct generated surface runoff to the lower part of the plots. Runoff collecting systems composed of gutters, pipes and tankswere installed at the end of each plot. During the two-year study period of 2011-2012, plots were maintained in bare conditions and runoff and soil loss were measured for each single event. Precipitation amounts and characteristics were directly measured by an automatic recording tipping-bucket rain gauge located about 200 m from the experimental plots. The entire runoff volume including eroded sediment was measured on

  2. Longleaf pine regeneration following Hurricane Ivan utilizing the RLGS plots

    John C. Gilbert; John S. Kush

    2013-01-01

    On September 16, 2004, Hurricane Ivan hit the Alabama coast and severely impacted numerous plots in the U.S. Forest Service’s Regional Longleaf Growth Study (RLGS). The Escambia Experimental Forest (EEF) has 201 of the 325 RLGS plots. Nearly one-third of the EEF was impacted. Nine plots with pole-sized trees were entirely lost. Another 54 plots had some type of damage...

  3. Worm plot to diagnose fit in quantile regression

    Buuren, S. van

    2007-01-01

    The worm plot is a series of detrended Q-Q plots, split by covariate levels. The worm plot is a diagnostic tool for visualizing how well a statistical model fits the data, for finding locations at which the fit can be improved, and for comparing the fit of different models. This paper shows how the

  4. Presenting simulation results in a nested loop plot.

    Rücker, Gerta; Schwarzer, Guido

    2014-12-12

    Statisticians investigate new methods in simulations to evaluate their properties for future real data applications. Results are often presented in a number of figures, e.g., Trellis plots. We had conducted a simulation study on six statistical methods for estimating the treatment effect in binary outcome meta-analyses, where selection bias (e.g., publication bias) was suspected because of apparent funnel plot asymmetry. We varied five simulation parameters: true treatment effect, extent of selection, event proportion in control group, heterogeneity parameter, and number of studies in meta-analysis. In combination, this yielded a total number of 768 scenarios. To present all results using Trellis plots, 12 figures were needed. Choosing bias as criterion of interest, we present a 'nested loop plot', a diagram type that aims to have all simulation results in one plot. The idea was to bring all scenarios into a lexicographical order and arrange them consecutively on the horizontal axis of a plot, whereas the treatment effect estimate is presented on the vertical axis. The plot illustrates how parameters simultaneously influenced the estimate. It can be combined with a Trellis plot in a so-called hybrid plot. Nested loop plots may also be applied to other criteria such as the variance of estimation. The nested loop plot, similar to a time series graph, summarizes all information about the results of a simulation study with respect to a chosen criterion in one picture and provides a suitable alternative or an addition to Trellis plots.

  5. Worm plot to diagnose fit in quantile regression

    Buuren, S. van

    2007-01-01

    The worm plot is a series of detrended Q-Q plots, split by covariate levels. The worm plot is a diagnostic tool for visualizing how well a statistical model fits the data, for finding locations at which the fit can be improved, and for comparing the fit of different models. This paper shows how

  6. Dual mode linguistic hedge fuzzy logic controller for an isolated wind-diesel hybrid power system with superconducting magnetic energy storage unit

    Thameem Ansari, M.Md.; Velusami, S.

    2010-01-01

    A design of dual mode linguistic hedge fuzzy logic controller for an isolated wind-diesel hybrid power system with superconducting magnetic energy storage unit is proposed in this paper. The design methodology of dual mode linguistic hedge fuzzy logic controller is a hybrid model based on the concepts of linguistic hedges and hybrid genetic algorithm-simulated annealing algorithms. The linguistic hedge operators are used to adjust the shape of the system membership functions dynamically and can speed up the control result to fit the system demand. The hybrid genetic algorithm-simulated annealing algorithm is adopted to search the optimal linguistic hedge combination in the linguistic hedge module. Dual mode concept is also incorporated in the proposed controller because it can improve the system performance. The system with the proposed controller was simulated and the frequency deviation resulting from a step load disturbance is presented. The comparison of the proportional plus integral controller, fuzzy logic controller and the proposed dual mode linguistic hedge fuzzy logic controller shows that, with the application of the proposed controller, the system performance is improved significantly. The proposed controller is also found to be less sensitive to the changes in the parameters of the system and also robust under different operating modes of the hybrid power system.

  7. Robustness of critical points in a complex adaptive system: Effects of hedge behavior

    Liang, Yuan; Huang, Ji-Ping

    2013-08-01

    In our recent papers, we have identified a class of phase transitions in the market-directed resource-allocation game, and found that there exists a critical point at which the phase transitions occur. The critical point is given by a certain resource ratio. Here, by performing computer simulations and theoretical analysis, we report that the critical point is robust against various kinds of human hedge behavior where the numbers of herds and contrarians can be varied widely. This means that the critical point can be independent of the total number of participants composed of normal agents, herds and contrarians, under some conditions. This finding means that the critical points we identified in this complex adaptive system (with adaptive agents) may also be an intensive quantity, similar to those revealed in traditional physical systems (with non-adaptive units).

  8. Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets

    Woo, C.K.; Olson, A.; Horowitz, I.

    2006-01-01

    An extensive North American pipeline grid that physically integrates individual natural-gas markets, in conjunction with economic ties binding the California markets to those at Henry Hub, Louisiana and the New York mercantile exchange via an array of financial instruments, suggests that the spot prices at Henry Hub will impact those in California. We verify the suggestion via a partial-adjustment regression model, thus affirming that California traders can exploit the cross-hedging opportunities made available to them via market integration with Henry Hub, and that they can accurately forecast the price they will have to pay to meet future demand based solely on the price of futures at Henry Hub and the price of a California natural-gas basis swaps contract. (author)

  9. Optimization of conventional rule curves coupled with hedging rules for reservoir operation

    Taghian, Mehrdad; Rosbjerg, Dan; Haghighi, Ali

    2014-01-01

    As a common approach to reservoir operating policies, water levels at the end of each time interval should be kept at or above the rule curve. In this study, the policy is captured using rationing of the target yield to reduce the intensity of severe water shortages. For this purpose, a hybrid...... to achieve the optimal water allocation and the target storage levels for reservoirs. As a case study, a multipurpose, multireservoir system in southern Iran is selected. The results show that the model has good performance in extracting the optimum policy for reservoir operation under both normal...... model is developed to optimize simultaneously both the conventional rule curve and the hedging rule. In the compound model, a simple genetic algorithm is coupled with a simulation program, including an inner linear programming algorithm. In this way, operational policies are imposed by priority concepts...

  10. deltaPlotR: An R Package for Di?erential Item Functioning Analysis with Ango? s Delta Plot

    David Magis; Bruno Facon

    2014-01-01

    Angoff's delta plot is a straightforward and not computationally intensive method to identify differential item functioning (DIF) among dichotomously scored items. This approach was recently improved by proposing an optimal threshold selection and by considering several item purification processes. Moreover, to support practical DIF analyses with the delta plot and these improvements, the R package deltaPlotR was also developed. The purpose of this paper is twofold: to outline the delta plot ...

  11. Effectiveness of Domestic Wastewater Treatment Using a Bio-Hedge Water Hyacinth Wetland System

    Alireza Valipour

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available onstructed wetland applications have been limited by a large land requirement and capital investment. This study aimed to improve a shallow pond water hyacinth system by incorporating the advantages of engineered attached microbial growth technique (termed Bio-hedge for on-site domestic wastewater treatment. A laboratory scale continuous-flow system consists of the mesh type matrix providing an additional biofilm surface area of 54 m2/m3. Following one year of experimentation, the process showed more stability and enhanced performance in removing organic matter and nutrients, compared to traditional water hyacinth (by lowering 33%–67% HRT and facultative (by lowering 92%–96% HRT ponds. The wastewater exposed plants revealed a relative growth rate of 1.15% per day, and no anatomical deformities were observed. Plant nutrient level averaged 27 ± 1.7 and 44 ± 2.3 mg N/g dry weight, and 5 ± 1.4 & 9±1.2 mg P/g dry weight in roots and shoots, respectively. Microorganisms immobilized on Bio-hedge media (4.06 × 107 cfu/cm2 and plant roots (3.12 × 104 cfu/cm were isolated and identified (a total of 23 strains. The capital cost was pre-estimated for 1 m3/d wastewater at 78 US$/m3inflow and 465 US$/kg BOD5 removed. This process is a suitable ecotechnology due to improved biofilm formation, reduced footprint, energy savings, and increased quality effluent.

  12. Futures and forward contract as a route of hedging the risk

    Misbahul Islam

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In the present highly uncertain business scenario, the importance of risk management is much greater than ever before. Variations in the prices of agricultural and non-agricultural commodities are induced, over time, by demand-supply dynamics. The last two decades have witnessed many-fold increase in the volume of international trade and business due to the wave of globalization and liberalization sweeping across the world. This has led to rapid and unpredictable variations in financial assets prices, interest rates and exchange rates, and subsequently, to exposing the corporate world to an unwieldy financial risk. As a result, financial markets have experienced rapid variations in interest and exchange rates, stock market prices thus exposing the corporate world to a state of growing financial risk. The emergence of derivatives market is an ingenious feat of financial engineering that provides an effective and less costly solution to the problem of risk that is embedded in the price unpredictability of the underlying asset. Derivatives provide an effective solution to the problem of risk caused by uncertainty and volatility in underlying assets. These are the financial instruments that are linked to a specific financial instrument or indicator or commodity and through which specific risks can be traded in financial markets in their own right. In actual practice there are various different types of derivatives but this paper emphasizes on the two most important types of derivatives i.e. futures and forward contracts. These two are the most commonly used types of derivatives in financial markets. We can hedge the risk of price variations in stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, market indices etc. This study is about the futures and forward contracts. This paper presents various types of futures and forward contract and what advantages and disadvantages these two important types of derivatives have? It also includes that how

  13. From Socialism to Hedge Fund: The Human Element and the New History of Capitalism

    David Huyssen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alfred Winslow Jones was a socialist who founded the first hedge fund in 1949. He had been U.S. Vice Consul in Berlin from 1931 to 1932, Soviet sympathizer and anti-Nazi spy with dissident German communists, humanitarian observer during the Spanish Civil War, acclaimed sociologist of class, and an editor for Fortune magazine. At every stage of his life, Jones occupied positions of advantage, and his invention of the modern hedge fund has had an outsized impact on global capitalism’s contemporary round of financialization. On its face, then, his life would appear to offer ideal material for a “great-man” biography. Yet this “great man” also wrestled with the continual recognition that structural forces were undermining his fondest hopes for social change. Following Georgi Derluguian, Giovanni Arrighi, and Marc Bloch, this article proposes a world-system biography of Jones as a method better suited for mapping the internal dialectics of twentieth-century capitalism, using Jones as a human connection between cyclical and structural transformations of capitalism, and across changes of phase from financial to material expansion—and back again. On another level, it suggests a theoretical reorientation—toward what Bloch called “the human element”—for studies of capitalism’s cultural and material history. It argues that such a reorientation would hold rewards for the “new history of capitalism” field, which until now has pursued its quarry primarily by tracing the movements of commodities, capital, institutions, and ideas.

  14. Multi-Objective Optimization of the Hedging Model for reservoir Operation Using Evolutionary Algorithms

    sadegh sadeghitabas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-objective problems rarely ever provide a single optimal solution, rather they yield an optimal set of outputs (Pareto fronts. Solving these problems was previously accomplished by using some simplifier methods such as the weighting coefficient method used for converting a multi-objective problem to a single objective function. However, such robust tools as multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithms have been recently developed for solving these problems. The hedging model is one of the classic problems for reservoir operation that is generally employed for mitigating drought impacts in water resources management. According to this method, although it is possible to supply the total planned demands, only portions of the demands are met to save water by allowing small deficits in the current conditions in order to avoid or reduce severe deficits in future. The approach heavily depends on economic and social considerations. In the present study, the meta-heuristic algorithms of NSGA-II, MOPSO, SPEA-II, and AMALGAM are used toward the multi-objective optimization of the hedging model. For this purpose, the rationing factors involved in Taleghan dam operation are optimized over a 35-year statistical period of inflow. There are two objective functions: a minimizing the modified shortage index, and b maximizing the reliability index (i.e., two opposite objectives. The results show that the above algorithms are applicable to a wide range of optimal solutions. Among the algorithms, AMALGAM is found to produce a better Pareto front for the values of the objective function, indicating its more satisfactory performance.

  15. Analysis of Nova 1 strategy formed by barrier options and its application in hedging against a price drop in oil market

    Michal Šoltés

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates hedging analysis against an underlying price drop by using the Nova 1 strategy formed by standard vanilla and barrier options. There are used European down and knock-in put options together with barrier call options. Derived income functions from the secured positions in analytical expressions are presented. Based on the theoretical results, the hedged portfolio is applied to SPDR SandP Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF. The proposed hedging variants are analysed and compared with the recommendation of the best possibilities for investors.

  16. Quantification of potential exposure of gray partridge (Perdix perdix) to pesticide active substances in farmlands

    Bro, Elisabeth, E-mail: elisabeth.bro@oncfs.gouv.fr [National Game and Wildlife Institute (ONCFS), Research Department, Saint Benoist, BP 20, F 78 612 Le Perray en Yvelines Cedex (France); Millot, Florian, E-mail: florian.millot@oncfs.gouv.fr [National Game and Wildlife Institute (ONCFS), Research Department, Saint Benoist, BP 20, F 78 612 Le Perray en Yvelines Cedex (France); Decors, Anouk, E-mail: anouk.decors@oncfs.gouv.fr [National Game and Wildlife Institute (ONCFS), Research Department, Saint Benoist, BP 20, F 78 612 Le Perray en Yvelines Cedex (France); Devillers, James, E-mail: j.devillers@ctis.fr [Centre de Traitement de l' Information Scientifique (CTIS), 3 chemin de la Gravière, 69140 Rillieux La Pape (France)

    2015-07-15

    Estimating exposure of wild birds to plant protection products is of key importance in the risk assessment process evaluating their harmful potential. In this paper, we propose an ecologically-relevant methodology to estimate potential exposure to active substances (ASs) of a farmland focal bird, the gray partridge Perdix perdix. It is based on bird habitat use of fields at the time of pesticide applications. It accounts for spatio-temporal heterogeneity at population and landscape scales. We identify and quantify the potential exposure to 179 ASs of 140 clutches during pre-laying, laying, and incubation phases, and of 75 coveys. The data come from a large scale field study combining radiotelemetry and a farmer survey. They were collected in 12 different representative sites. The proportion of clutches potentially exposed to a given chemical was ≥ 5% for 32 ASs; prothioconazole and epoxiconazole ranking first. 71% of clutches were potentially exposed to ≥ 1 AS and 67% to ≥ 2 ASs. Mixtures involved 2 to 22 ASs. They emerged from commercial formulations, tank mixtures, bird habitat use, and combinations. ASs were fungicides (53%), herbicides (25%), and insecticides (16%) used on a variety of crops in April–June, when ground-nesting birds are breeding. The European Food Safety Authority conclusions report a long-term first-tier toxicity-to-exposure ratio (TER{sub lt}) < 5 for 11 out of 19 documented ASs, and higher-tier TER{sub lt} < 5 for 5 out of 10 ASs. This suggests a potential risk for bird reproduction in farmlands. Globally 13% of coveys were potentially exposed to 18 ASs during the first month (1–4 coveys per AS). The use of our field data in future research and risk assessment is discussed. - Highlights: • 71% of clutches and 13% of coveys are exposed to active substances. • Partridge clutches/coveys are mostly exposed to 32/3 substances. • Fungicides (53%), herbicides (25%), and insecticides (16%) dominate. • Some substances have the

  17. Quantification of potential exposure of gray partridge (Perdix perdix) to pesticide active substances in farmlands

    Bro, Elisabeth; Millot, Florian; Decors, Anouk; Devillers, James

    2015-01-01

    Estimating exposure of wild birds to plant protection products is of key importance in the risk assessment process evaluating their harmful potential. In this paper, we propose an ecologically-relevant methodology to estimate potential exposure to active substances (ASs) of a farmland focal bird, the gray partridge Perdix perdix. It is based on bird habitat use of fields at the time of pesticide applications. It accounts for spatio-temporal heterogeneity at population and landscape scales. We identify and quantify the potential exposure to 179 ASs of 140 clutches during pre-laying, laying, and incubation phases, and of 75 coveys. The data come from a large scale field study combining radiotelemetry and a farmer survey. They were collected in 12 different representative sites. The proportion of clutches potentially exposed to a given chemical was ≥ 5% for 32 ASs; prothioconazole and epoxiconazole ranking first. 71% of clutches were potentially exposed to ≥ 1 AS and 67% to ≥ 2 ASs. Mixtures involved 2 to 22 ASs. They emerged from commercial formulations, tank mixtures, bird habitat use, and combinations. ASs were fungicides (53%), herbicides (25%), and insecticides (16%) used on a variety of crops in April–June, when ground-nesting birds are breeding. The European Food Safety Authority conclusions report a long-term first-tier toxicity-to-exposure ratio (TER lt ) < 5 for 11 out of 19 documented ASs, and higher-tier TER lt < 5 for 5 out of 10 ASs. This suggests a potential risk for bird reproduction in farmlands. Globally 13% of coveys were potentially exposed to 18 ASs during the first month (1–4 coveys per AS). The use of our field data in future research and risk assessment is discussed. - Highlights: • 71% of clutches and 13% of coveys are exposed to active substances. • Partridge clutches/coveys are mostly exposed to 32/3 substances. • Fungicides (53%), herbicides (25%), and insecticides (16%) dominate. • Some substances have the potential to

  18. iCanPlot: visual exploration of high-throughput omics data using interactive Canvas plotting.

    Amit U Sinha

    Full Text Available Increasing use of high throughput genomic scale assays requires effective visualization and analysis techniques to facilitate data interpretation. Moreover, existing tools often require programming skills, which discourages bench scientists from examining their own data. We have created iCanPlot, a compelling platform for visual data exploration based on the latest technologies. Using the recently adopted HTML5 Canvas element, we have developed a highly interactive tool to visualize tabular data and identify interesting patterns in an intuitive fashion without the need of any specialized computing skills. A module for geneset overlap analysis has been implemented on the Google App Engine platform: when the user selects a region of interest in the plot, the genes in the region are analyzed on the fly. The visualization and analysis are amalgamated for a seamless experience. Further, users can easily upload their data for analysis--which also makes it simple to share the analysis with collaborators. We illustrate the power of iCanPlot by showing an example of how it can be used to interpret histone modifications in the context of gene expression.

  19. 137Cs tracing dynamics of soil erosion, organic carbon and nitrogen in sloping farmland converted from original grassland in Tibetan plateau

    Nie Xiaojun; Wang Xiaodan; Liu Suzhen; Gu Shixian; Liu Haijun

    2010-01-01

    There is a shortage of research concerning the relationships between land-use change, soil erosion, and soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in alpine environments such as those found in the Tibetan plateau. In this paper, typical sloping farmlands converted from grassland 50 years ago in eastern Tibet were selected to determine dynamics of soil erosion, SOC, and total N associated with land-use change. Soil samples were collected from sloping farmland and control fields (grassland). The 137 Cs, SOC, total N contents, and soil particle size fractions were analyzed in these samples. As compared with the control fields, 137 Cs, SOC, and total N inventories in the sloping farmlands decreased by 30%, 27%, and 33%, respectively. Meanwhile variations in the three parameters were enhanced in the sloping farmlands, with coefficients of variation (CVs) of 38%, 23%, and 20%, respectively, for 37 Cs, SOC, and total N. In addition, SOC and total N inventories significantly decreased with increasing soil erosion in the sloping farmland. In a sloping farmland with a steep 24 o gradient, the 137 Cs inventory gradually increased along a downslope transect with its lowest value at 0 Bq m -2 in the top-slope position (0 m). The soil clay ( 137 Cs and clay (r=0.92, p=0.003), SOC (r=0.96, p=0.001), or total N (r=0.95, p=0.001) were also found in the farmland. These results showed that converting alpine grassland to sloping farmland accelerates soil erosion, losses in SOC and N, and increases the soil's spatial variability. The combined impacts of tillage and water erosion contributed a significant decrease in the soil's organic carbon and N storages. Particularly in steep sloping farmlands, tillage erosion contributed for severe soil loss, but the soil redistribution pattern was dominated by water erosion, not tillage erosion, due to the lack of boundaries across the field patches. It was also found that 137 Cs, SOC, and total N moved along the same pathway within these

  20. {sup 137}Cs tracing dynamics of soil erosion, organic carbon and nitrogen in sloping farmland converted from original grassland in Tibetan plateau

    Nie Xiaojun, E-mail: niexj2005@126.co [School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000 (China); Wang Xiaodan; Liu Suzhen; Gu Shixian [Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Conservation, Chengdu 610041 (China); Liu Haijun [Institute of Water Resources Planning, Surveying, Design, and Research, Lhasa 850000 (China)

    2010-09-15

    There is a shortage of research concerning the relationships between land-use change, soil erosion, and soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in alpine environments such as those found in the Tibetan plateau. In this paper, typical sloping farmlands converted from grassland 50 years ago in eastern Tibet were selected to determine dynamics of soil erosion, SOC, and total N associated with land-use change. Soil samples were collected from sloping farmland and control fields (grassland). The {sup 137}Cs, SOC, total N contents, and soil particle size fractions were analyzed in these samples. As compared with the control fields, {sup 137}Cs, SOC, and total N inventories in the sloping farmlands decreased by 30%, 27%, and 33%, respectively. Meanwhile variations in the three parameters were enhanced in the sloping farmlands, with coefficients of variation (CVs) of 38%, 23%, and 20%, respectively, for {sup 37}Cs, SOC, and total N. In addition, SOC and total N inventories significantly decreased with increasing soil erosion in the sloping farmland. In a sloping farmland with a steep 24{sup o} gradient, the {sup 137}Cs inventory gradually increased along a downslope transect with its lowest value at 0 Bq m{sup -2} in the top-slope position (0 m). The soil clay (<0.002 mm) content in such an area increased with decreasing elevation (r=-0.95, p=0.001). Significant correlations between {sup 137}Cs and clay (r=0.92, p=0.003), SOC (r=0.96, p=0.001), or total N (r=0.95, p=0.001) were also found in the farmland. These results showed that converting alpine grassland to sloping farmland accelerates soil erosion, losses in SOC and N, and increases the soil's spatial variability. The combined impacts of tillage and water erosion contributed a significant decrease in the soil's organic carbon and N storages. Particularly in steep sloping farmlands, tillage erosion contributed for severe soil loss, but the soil redistribution pattern was dominated by water erosion