Numerical Simulation of Heavy Rainfall in August 2014 over Japan and Analysis of Its Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuki Minamiguchi

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This study evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model version 3.7 for simulating a series of rainfall events in August 2014 over Japan and investigated the impact of uncertainty in sea surface temperature (SST on simulated rainfall in the record-high precipitation period. WRF simulations for the heavy rainfall were conducted for six different cases. The heavy rainfall events caused by typhoons and rain fronts were similarly accurately reproduced by three cases: the TQW_5km case with grid nudging for air temperature, humidity, and wind and with a horizontal resolution of 5 km; W_5km with wind nudging and 5-km resolution; and W_2.5km with wind nudging and 2.5-km resolution. Because the nudging for air temperature and humidity in TQW_5km suppresses the influence of SST change, and because W_2.5km requires larger computational load, W_5km was selected as the baseline case for a sensitivity analysis of SST. In the sensitivity analysis, SST around Japan was homogeneously changed by 1 K from the original SST data. The analysis showed that the SST increase led to a larger amount of precipitation in the study period in Japan, with the mean increase rate of precipitation being 13 ± 8% K−1. In addition, 99 percentile precipitation (100 mm d−1 in the baseline case increased by 13% K−1 of SST warming. These results also indicate that an uncertainty of approximately 13% in the simulated heavy rainfall corresponds to an uncertainty of 1 K in SST data around Japan in the study period.

Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H.

2016-02-01

The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A

Regional climate scenarios - A study on precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Boessing Christensen, O.

2001-01-01

A set of nested climate change simulations for the Nordic region and Denmark has been revisited. In the present work we have re-examined the results of CCMB and MBC with special emphasis on precipitation intensity frequencies, in particular the more extreme part of the frequency distribution. It has been demonstrated that the role of extreme precipitation events appears to be more realistically described in a high-resolution model, in terms of numerical agreement as well as seasonal variation. This is mainly due to a better simulation of deep low-pressure systems and mesoscale circulation. Generally, the analysis has confirmed the results from CCMB, but furthermore a resolution effect has been identified which seems essential to the understanding of climate change effects on the extreme end of the precipitation intensity distribution. In order to analyse the role of the model resolution we have aggregated both the nested model data and observational records to the GCM grid from the driving AOGCM. It was found that, in spite of changes in absolute numbers, the seasonal behaviour of decay constants does not change appreciably because of the aggregation. The RCM results show a seasonal behaviour very similar to an observed data set. It is therefore concluded that the GCM has an unrealistic simulation of the dependence of heavy precipitation on climate, as manifested in seasonal variation. In contrast, the regional simulations remain close to observation in this respect. Furthermore, they agree on a conclusion that extreme precipitation generally scales with average precipitation (no significant change in decay constants were detected), but that crucial summer season may be an exception, exhibiting an anomalous increase in heavy precipitation due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The analysis has only been performed over Denmark due to lack of daily observational data for other regions. It is, however, necessary to extend the work to other areas, for instance

An integrated computational tool for precipitation simulation

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Cao, W.; Zhang, F.; Chen, S.-L.; Zhang, C.; Chang, Y. A.

2011-07-01

Computer aided materials design is of increasing interest because the conventional approach solely relying on experimentation is no longer viable within the constraint of available resources. Modeling of microstructure and mechanical properties during precipitation plays a critical role in understanding the behavior of materials and thus accelerating the development of materials. Nevertheless, an integrated computational tool coupling reliable thermodynamic calculation, kinetic simulation, and property prediction of multi-component systems for industrial applications is rarely available. In this regard, we are developing a software package, PanPrecipitation, under the framework of integrated computational materials engineering to simulate precipitation kinetics. It is seamlessly integrated with the thermodynamic calculation engine, PanEngine, to obtain accurate thermodynamic properties and atomic mobility data necessary for precipitation simulation.

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

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Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and heavy precipitation over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Yatagai, A. I.; Takayabu, Y. N.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are known as the water-vapor rich part of the broader warm conveyor belt. Recently, several AR detection algorithms are proposed, and structures and that of statistical features are studied globally. Since Japan is a humid country located in the north of the warm pool, ARs, middle tropospheric fast moisture transport, might be an important moisture source for heavy precipitation events in Japan. The purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm of detection of ARs over Japan, and to investigate the possible relationship between them and Japanese heavy precipitation events. Since high spatial correlations were obtained between ERA-Interim reanalysis PW and that of SSM/I (microwave images), we used daily PW (0.75 degree grid) for detection of the ARs. Using 36 years (1979-2014) ERA-Interim, we defined daily smoothed PW climatology. Then, we detected AR area with daily anomaly of PW exceeding 10 mm. However, we exclude round-shaped (caused by Typhoon etc) area and the case of moisture transport not exceeding 30N/30S. The daily AR events over Japan (123-146E, 24-46N) are; 1013 cases for winter (DJF), 1722 for spring (MAM), 2229 for summer (JJA) and 1870 for autumn (SON) during the 36 years. They successfully include Hiroshima disaster event (19 August 2014, Hirota et al., 2015) and Amami heavy precipitation event (20 October 2010). The summer with large AR appearance (1998 and 2010) had negative SOI (La Nina), and lowest appearance year (1992) was the year of El Nino (positively significant SOI). Totally, more ARs come over Japan area in La Nina years, however, the seasonal statistics between SOI and the number of AR is not straightforward, indicating that it is difficult to explain ARs over Japan with only tropical inter-annual variability. We use APHRO-JP (Kamiguchi et al., 2010) daily gridded (0.05 degree) precipitation (1979-2011) over Japanese land areas for comparison. Among the 32 years (1979-2011), we had 82 cases of heavy

Assessment of GPM and TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products in Streamflow Simulations in a Data-Sparse Mountainous Watershed in Myanmar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Yuan

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Satellite precipitation products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission and its predecessor the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM are a critical data source for hydrological applications in ungauged basins. This study conducted an initial and early evaluation of the performance of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG final run and the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42V7 precipitation products, and their feasibility in streamflow simulations in the Chindwin River basin, Myanmar, from April 2014 to December 2015 was also assessed. Results show that, although IMERG and 3B42V7 can potentially capture the spatiotemporal patterns of historical precipitation, the two products contain considerable errors. Compared with 3B42V7, no significant improvements were found in IMERG. Moreover, 3B42V7 outperformed IMERG at daily and monthly scales and in heavy rain detections at four out of five gauges. The large errors in IMERG and 3B42V7 distinctly propagated to streamflow simulations via the Xinanjiang hydrological model, with a significant underestimation of total runoff and high flows. The bias correction of the satellite precipitation effectively improved the streamflow simulations. The 3B42V7-based streamflow simulations performed better than the gauge-based simulations. In general, IMERG and 3B42V7 are feasible for use in streamflow simulations in the study area, although 3B42V7 is better suited than IMERG.

Simulation of heavy precipitation episode over eastern Peninsular Malaysia using MM5: sensitivity to cumulus parameterization schemes

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Salimun, Ester; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew

2010-06-01

A comparative study has been conducted to investigate the skill of four convection parameterization schemes, namely the Anthes-Kuo (AK), the Betts-Miller (BM), the Kain-Fritsch (KF), and the Grell (GR) schemes in the numerical simulation of an extreme precipitation episode over eastern Peninsular Malaysia using the Pennsylvania State University—National Center for Atmospheric Research Center (PSU-NCAR) Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The event is a commonly occurring westward propagating tropical depression weather system during a boreal winter resulting from an interaction between a cold surge and the quasi-stationary Borneo vortex. The model setup and other physical parameterizations are identical in all experiments and hence any difference in the simulation performance could be associated with the cumulus parameterization scheme used. From the predicted rainfall and structure of the storm, it is clear that the BM scheme has an edge over the other schemes. The rainfall intensity and spatial distribution were reasonably well simulated compared to observations. The BM scheme was also better in resolving the horizontal and vertical structures of the storm. Most of the rainfall simulated by the BM simulation was of the convective type. The failure of other schemes (AK, GR and KF) in simulating the event may be attributed to the trigger function, closure assumption, and precipitation scheme. On the other hand, the appropriateness of the BM scheme for this episode may not be generalized for other episodes or convective environments.

Diagnosis of Moist Vorticity and Moist Divergence for a Heavy Precipitation Event in Southwestern China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gang LI; Daoyong YANG; Xiaohua JIANG; Jing PAN; Yanke TAN

2017-01-01

A regional heavy precipitation event that occurred over Sichuan Province on 8-9 September 2015 is analyzed based on hourly observed precipitation data obtained from weather stations and NCEP FNL data.Two moist dynamic parameters, i.e., moist vorticity (mζ) and moist divergence (mδ), are used to diagnose this heavy precipitation event.Results show that the topography over southwestern China has a significant impact on the ability of these two parameters to diagnose precipitation.When the impact of topography is weak (i.e., low altitude), mζ cannot exactly depict the location of precipitation in the initial stage of the event.Then, as the precipitation develops, its ability to depict the location improves significantly.In particular, mζ coincides best with the location of precipitation during the peak stage of the event.Besides, the evolution of the mζ center shows high consistency with the evolution of the precipitation center.For mδ,although some false-alarm regions are apparent, it reflects the location of precipitation almost entirely during the precipitation event.However, the mδ center shows inconsistency with the precipitation center.These results suggest that both mζ and mδ have a significant ability to predict the location of precipitation.Moreover, mζ has a stronger ability than mδ in terms of predicting the variability of the precipitation center.However, when the impact of topography is strong (i.e., high altitude), both of these two moist dynamic parameters are unable to depict the location and center of precipitation during the entire precipitation event, suggesting their weak ability to predict precipitation over complex topography.

Numerical simulations of significant orographic precipitation in Madeira island

Science.gov (United States)

Couto, Flavio Tiago; Ducrocq, Véronique; Salgado, Rui; Costa, Maria João

2016-03-01

High-resolution simulations of high precipitation events with the MESO-NH model are presented, and also used to verify that increasing horizontal resolution in zones of complex orography, such as in Madeira island, improve the simulation of the spatial distribution and total precipitation. The simulations succeeded in reproducing the general structure of the cloudy systems over the ocean in the four periods considered of significant accumulated precipitation. The accumulated precipitation over the Madeira was better represented with the 0.5 km horizontal resolution and occurred under four distinct synoptic situations. Different spatial patterns of the rainfall distribution over the Madeira have been identified.

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

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Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

2017-08-01

Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as

Parameter uncertainty in simulations of extreme precipitation and attribution studies.

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Timmermans, B.; Collins, W. D.; O'Brien, T. A.; Risser, M. D.

2017-12-01

The attribution of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, to anthropogenic influence involves the analysis of their probability in simulations of climate. The climate models used however, such as the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), employ approximate physics that gives rise to "parameter uncertainty"—uncertainty about the most accurate or optimal values of numerical parameters within the model. In particular, approximate parameterisations for convective processes are well known to be influential in the simulation of precipitation extremes. Towards examining the impact of this source of uncertainty on attribution studies, we investigate the importance of components—through their associated tuning parameters—of parameterisations relating to deep and shallow convection, and cloud and aerosol microphysics in CAM. We hypothesise that as numerical resolution is increased the change in proportion of variance induced by perturbed parameters associated with the respective components is consistent with the decreasing applicability of the underlying hydrostatic assumptions. For example, that the relative influence of deep convection should diminish as resolution approaches that where convection can be resolved numerically ( 10 km). We quantify the relationship between the relative proportion of variance induced and numerical resolution by conducting computer experiments that examine precipitation extremes over the contiguous U.S. In order to mitigate the enormous computational burden of running ensembles of long climate simulations, we use variable-resolution CAM and employ both extreme value theory and surrogate modelling techniques ("emulators"). We discuss the implications of the relationship between parameterised convective processes and resolution both in the context of attribution studies and progression towards models that fully resolve convection.

Simulation of an extreme heavy rainfall event over Chennai, India using WRF: Sensitivity to grid resolution and boundary layer physics

KAUST Repository

Srinivas, C.V.

2018-05-04

In this study, the heavy precipitation event on 01 December 2015 over Chennai located on the southeast coast of India was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. A series of simulations were conducted using explicit convection and varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. The model results were compared with available surface, satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations. Simulations indicate strong, sustained moist convection associated with development of a mesoscale upper air cyclonic circulation, during the passage of a synoptic scale low-pressure trough caused heavy rainfall over Chennai and its surroundings. Results suggest that veering of wind with height associated with strong wind shear in the layer 800–400 hPa together with dry air advection facilitated development of instability and initiation of convection. The 1-km domain using explicit convection improved the prediction of rainfall intensity of about 450 mm and its distribution. The PBL physics strongly influenced the rainfall prediction by changing the location of upper air circulation, energy transport, moisture convergence and intensity of convection in the schemes YSU, MYJ and MYNN. All the simulations underestimated the first spell of the heavy rainfall. While YSU and MYJ schemes grossly underestimated the rainfall and dislocated the area of maximum rainfall, the higher order MYNN scheme simulated the rainfall pattern in better agreement with observations. The MYNN showed lesser mixing and simulated more humid boundary layer, higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) and stronger winds at mid-troposphere than did the other schemes. The MYNN also realistically simulated the location of upper air cyclonic flow and various dynamic and thermodynamic features. Consequently it simulated stronger moisture convergence and higher precipitation.

Simulation of an extreme heavy rainfall event over Chennai, India using WRF: Sensitivity to grid resolution and boundary layer physics

KAUST Repository

Srinivas, C.V.; Yesubabu, V.; Hari Prasad, D.; Hari Prasad, K.B.R.R.; Greeshma, M.M.; Baskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.

2018-01-01

In this study, the heavy precipitation event on 01 December 2015 over Chennai located on the southeast coast of India was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. A series of simulations were conducted using explicit convection and varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. The model results were compared with available surface, satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations. Simulations indicate strong, sustained moist convection associated with development of a mesoscale upper air cyclonic circulation, during the passage of a synoptic scale low-pressure trough caused heavy rainfall over Chennai and its surroundings. Results suggest that veering of wind with height associated with strong wind shear in the layer 800–400 hPa together with dry air advection facilitated development of instability and initiation of convection. The 1-km domain using explicit convection improved the prediction of rainfall intensity of about 450 mm and its distribution. The PBL physics strongly influenced the rainfall prediction by changing the location of upper air circulation, energy transport, moisture convergence and intensity of convection in the schemes YSU, MYJ and MYNN. All the simulations underestimated the first spell of the heavy rainfall. While YSU and MYJ schemes grossly underestimated the rainfall and dislocated the area of maximum rainfall, the higher order MYNN scheme simulated the rainfall pattern in better agreement with observations. The MYNN showed lesser mixing and simulated more humid boundary layer, higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) and stronger winds at mid-troposphere than did the other schemes. The MYNN also realistically simulated the location of upper air cyclonic flow and various dynamic and thermodynamic features. Consequently it simulated stronger moisture convergence and higher precipitation.

Heavy precipitation as a risk factor for shigellosis among homeless persons during an outbreak - Oregon, 2015-2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Hines, Jonas Z; Jagger, Meredith A; Jeanne, Thomas L; West, Nicole; Winquist, Andrea; Robinson, Byron F; Leman, Richard F; Hedberg, Katrina

2018-03-01

Shigella species are the third most common cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in the United States. During a Shigella sonnei outbreak in Oregon from July 2015 through June 2016, Shigella cases spread among homeless persons with onset of the wettest rainy season on record. We conducted time series analyses using Poisson regression to determine if a temporal association between precipitation and shigellosis incidence existed. Models were stratified by housing status. Among 105 infections identified, 45 (43%) occurred in homeless persons. With increasing precipitation, cases increased among homeless persons (relative risk [RR] = 1.36 per inch of precipitation during the exposure period; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17-1.59), but not among housed persons (RR = 1.04; 95% CI 0.86-1.25). Heavy precipitation likely contributed to shigellosis transmission among homeless persons during this outbreak. When heavy precipitation is forecast, organizations working with homeless persons could consider taking proactive measures to mitigate spread of enteric infections. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Thermokinetic Simulation of Precipitation in NiTi Shape Memory Alloys

Science.gov (United States)

Cirstea, C. D.; Karadeniz-Povoden, E.; Kozeschnik, E.; Lungu, M.; Lang, P.; Balagurov, A.; Cirstea, V.

2017-06-01

Considering classical nucleation theory and evolution equations for the growth and composition change of precipitates, we simulate the evolution of the precipitates structure in the classical stages of nucleation, growth and coarsening using the solid-state transformation Matcalc software. The formation of Ni3Ti, Ni4Ti3 or Ni3Ti2 precipitate is the key to hardening phenomenon of the alloys, which depends on the nickel solubility in the bulk alloys. The microstructural evolution of metastable Ni4Ti3 and Ni3Ti2 precipitates in Ni-rich TiNi alloys is simulated by computational thermokinetics, based on thermodynamic and diffusion databases. The simulated precipitate phase fractions are compared with experimental data.

Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

2017-05-01

In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.

Phase Behavior Modeling of Asphaltene Precipitation for Heavy Crudes: A Promising Tool Along with Experimental Data

Science.gov (United States)

Tavakkoli, M.; Kharrat, R.; Masihi, M.; Ghazanfari, M. H.; Fadaei, S.

2012-12-01

Thermodynamic modeling is known as a promising tool for phase behavior modeling of asphaltene precipitation under different conditions such as pressure depletion and CO2 injection. In this work, a thermodynamic approach is used for modeling the phase behavior of asphaltene precipitation. The precipitated asphaltene phase is represented by an improved solid model, while the oil and gas phases are modeled with an equation of state. The PR-EOS was used to perform flash calculations. Then, the onset point and the amount of precipitated asphaltene were predicted. A computer code based on an improved solid model has been developed and used for predicting asphaltene precipitation data for one of Iranian heavy crudes, under pressure depletion and CO2 injection conditions. A significant improvement has been observed in predicting the asphaltene precipitation data under gas injection conditions. Especially for the maximum value of asphaltene precipitation and for the trend of the curve after the peak point, good agreement was observed. For gas injection conditions, comparison of the thermodynamic micellization model and the improved solid model showed that the thermodynamic micellization model cannot predict the maximum of precipitation as well as the improved solid model. The non-isothermal improved solid model has been used for predicting asphaltene precipitation data under pressure depletion conditions. The pressure depletion tests were done at different levels of temperature and pressure, and the parameters of a non-isothermal model were tuned using three onset pressures at three different temperatures for the considered crude. The results showed that the model is highly sensitive to the amount of solid molar volume along with the interaction coefficient parameter between the asphaltene component and light hydrocarbon components. Using a non-isothermal improved solid model, the asphaltene phase envelope was developed. It has been revealed that at high temperatures, an

High-resolution precipitation data derived from dynamical downscaling using the WRF model for the Heihe River Basin, northwest China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuezhen; Xiong, Zhe; Zheng, Jingyun; Ge, Quansheng

2018-02-01

The community of climate change impact assessments and adaptations research needs regional high-resolution (spatial) meteorological data. This study produced two downscaled precipitation datasets with spatial resolutions of as high as 3 km by 3 km for the Heihe River Basin (HRB) from 2011 to 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model nested with Final Analysis (FNL) from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (hereafter referred to as FNLexp and ERAexp, respectively). Both of the downscaling simulations generally reproduced the observed spatial patterns of precipitation. However, users should keep in mind that the two downscaled datasets are not exactly the same in terms of observations. In comparison to the remote sensing-based estimation, the FNLexp produced a bias of heavy precipitation centers. In comparison to the ground gauge-based measurements, for the warm season (May to September), the ERAexp produced more precipitation (root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 295.4 mm, across the 43 sites) and more heavy rainfall days, while the FNLexp produced less precipitation (RMSE = 115.6 mm) and less heavy rainfall days. Both the ERAexp and FNLexp produced considerably more precipitation for the cold season (October to April) with RMSE values of 119.5 and 32.2 mm, respectively, and more heavy precipitation days. Along with simulating a higher number of heavy precipitation days, both the FNLexp and ERAexp also simulated stronger extreme precipitation. Sensitivity experiments show that the bias of these simulations is much more sensitive to micro-physical parameterizations than to the spatial resolution of topography data. For the HRB, application of the WSM3 scheme may improve the performance of the WRF model.

Future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan by d4PDF regional climate simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Endo, H.; Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Takayabu, I.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Kawazoe, S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in summer plays a vital role in sustaining life across East Asia, but the heavy rain that is often generated during this period can also cause serious damage. Developing a better understanding of the features and occurrence frequency of this heavy rain is an important element of disaster prevention. We investigated future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan using large ensemble dataset which simulated by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with a horizontal resolution of 20km (NHRCM20). This dataset called database for Policy Decision making for Future climate changes (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for the impact assessment studies and adaptation planning to global warming. The future climate experiments assume the global mean surface air temperature rise 2K and 4K from the pre-industrial period. We investigated using this dataset future changes of precipitation in summer over the Japanese archipelago based on observational locations. For mean precipitation in the present-day climate, the bias of the rainfall for each month is within 25% even considering all members (30 members). The bias at each location is found to increase by over 50% on the Pacific Ocean side of eastern part of Japan and interior locations of western part of Japan. The result in western part of Japan depends on the effect of the elevations in this model. The future changes in mean precipitation show a contrast between northern and southern Japan, with the north showing a slight increase but the south a decrease. The future changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation in the national average of Japan increase at 2K and 4K simulations compared with the present-day climate, respectively. The authors were supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

Simulation of Concurrent Precipitation of Two Strengthening Phases in Magnesium Alloys

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Weihua; Zhang, Chuan; Klarner, Andrew D.; Cao, Weisheng; Luo, Alan A.

The precipitation kinetics and microtructure in Mg-Sn binary and Mg-Al-Sn ternary alloys are simulated using PanPrecipitation coupled with Mg thermodynamic database and a newly established mobility database of the Mg-Al-Sn ternary system. Both Mg2Sn and Mg17Al12 precipitates are considered in this work. The obtained kinetic parameters for these two precipitates can be used in the simulation of both individual and concurrent precipitations of Mg17Al12 and Mg2Sn in Mg-Al-Sn alloys. The simulated microstructure evolution, such as the particle size and number density, are in agreement with experimental data.

Partitioning into hazard subregions for regional peaks-over-threshold modeling of heavy precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Carreau, J.; Naveau, P.; Neppel, L.

2017-05-01

The French Mediterranean is subject to intense precipitation events occurring mostly in autumn. These can potentially cause flash floods, the main natural danger in the area. The distribution of these events follows specific spatial patterns, i.e., some sites are more likely to be affected than others. The peaks-over-threshold approach consists in modeling extremes, such as heavy precipitation, by the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The shape parameter of the GP controls the probability of extreme events and can be related to the hazard level of a given site. When interpolating across a region, the shape parameter should reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the probability of heavy precipitation. However, the shape parameter estimators have high uncertainty which might hide the underlying spatial variability. As a compromise, we choose to let the shape parameter vary in a moderate fashion. More precisely, we assume that the region of interest can be partitioned into subregions with constant hazard level. We formalize the model as a conditional mixture of GP distributions. We develop a two-step inference strategy based on probability weighted moments and put forward a cross-validation procedure to select the number of subregions. A synthetic data study reveals that the inference strategy is consistent and not very sensitive to the selected number of subregions. An application on daily precipitation data from the French Mediterranean shows that the conditional mixture of GPs outperforms two interpolation approaches (with constant or smoothly varying shape parameter).

On the use of Cox regression to examine the temporal clustering of flooding and heavy precipitation across the central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele; Jones, Michael P.; Smith, James A.

2017-08-01

The central United States is plagued by frequent catastrophic flooding, such as the flood events of 1993, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2016. The goal of this study is to examine whether it is possible to describe the occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events at the sub-seasonal scale in terms of variations in the climate system. Daily streamflow and precipitation time series over the central United States (defined here to include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan) are used in this study. We model the occurrence/non-occurrence of a flood and heavy precipitation event over time using regression models based on Cox processes, which can be viewed as a generalization of Poisson processes. Rather than assuming that an event (i.e., flooding or precipitation) occurs independently of the occurrence of the previous one (as in Poisson processes), Cox processes allow us to account for the potential presence of temporal clustering, which manifests itself in an alternation of quiet and active periods. Here we model the occurrence/non-occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events using two climate indices as time-varying covariates: the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA). We find that AO and/or PNA are important predictors in explaining the temporal clustering in flood occurrences in over 78% of the stream gages we considered. Similar results are obtained when working with heavy precipitation events. Analyses of the sensitivity of the results to different thresholds used to identify events lead to the same conclusions. The findings of this work highlight that variations in the climate system play a critical role in explaining the occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events at the sub-seasonal scale over the central United States.

Simulations of Precipitate Microstructure Evolution during Heat Treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Kaisheng; Sterner, Gustaf; Chen, Qing; Jou, Herng-Jeng; Jeppsson, Johan; Bratberg, Johan; Engström, Anders; Mason, Paul

Precipitation, a major solid state phase transformation during heat treatment processes, has for more than one century been intensively employed to improve the strength and toughness of various high performance alloys. Recently, sophisticated precipitation reaction models, in assistance with well-developed CALPHAD databases, provide an efficient and cost-effective way to tailor precipitate microstructures that maximize the strengthening effect via the optimization of alloy chemistries and heat treatment schedules. In this presentation, we focus on simulating precipitate microstructure evolution in Nickel-base superalloys under arbitrary heat treatment conditions. The newly-developed TC-PRISMA program has been used for these simulations, with models refined especially for non-isothermal conditions. The effect of different cooling profiles on the formation of multimodal microstructures has been thoroughly examined in order to understand the underlying thermodynamics and kinetics. Meanwhile, validations against several experimental results have been carried out. Practical issues that are critical to the accuracy and applicability of the current simulations, such as modifications that overcome mean-field approximations, compatibility between CALPHAD databases, selection of key parameters (particularly interfacial energy and nucleation site densities), etc., are also addressed.

Intense air-sea exchanges and heavy orographic precipitation over Italy: The role of Adriatic sea surface temperature uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Stocchi, Paolo; Davolio, Silvio

2017-11-01

Strong and persistent low-level winds blowing over the Adriatic basin are often associated with intense precipitation events over Italy. Typically, in case of moist southeasterly wind (Sirocco), rainfall affects northeastern Italy and the Alpine chain, while with cold northeasterly currents (Bora) precipitations are localized along the eastern slopes of the Apennines and central Italy coastal areas. These events are favoured by intense air-sea interactions and it is reasonable to hypothesize that the Adriatic sea surface temperature (SST) can affect the amount and location of precipitation. High-resolution simulations of different Bora and Sirocco events leading to severe precipitation are performed using a convection-permitting model (MOLOCH). Sensitivity experiments varying the SST initialization field are performed with the aim of evaluating the impact of SST uncertainty on precipitation forecasts, which is a relevant topic for operational weather predictions, especially at local scales. Moreover, diagnostic tools to compute water vapour fluxes across the Italian coast and atmospheric water budget over the Adriatic Sea have been developed and applied in order to characterize the air mass that feeds the precipitating systems. Finally, the investigation of the processes through which the SST influences location and intensity of heavy precipitation allows to gain a better understanding on mechanisms conducive to severe weather in the Mediterranean area and in the Adriatic basin in particular. Results show that the effect of the Adriatic SST (uncertainty) on precipitation is complex and can vary considerably among different events. For both Bora and Sirocco events, SST does not influence markedly the atmospheric water budget or the degree of moistening of air that flows over the Adriatic Sea. SST mainly affects the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer, thus influencing the flow dynamics and the orographic flow regime, and in turn, the precipitation pattern.

Improving real-time estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation using rain gauge data via conditional bias-penalized optimal estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Dong-Jun; Siddique, Ridwan; Zhang, Yu; Kim, Dongsoo

2014-11-01

A new technique for gauge-only precipitation analysis for improved estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation is described and evaluated. The technique is based on a novel extension of classical optimal linear estimation theory in which, in addition to error variance, Type-II conditional bias (CB) is explicitly minimized. When cast in the form of well-known kriging, the methodology yields a new kriging estimator, referred to as CB-penalized kriging (CBPK). CBPK, however, tends to yield negative estimates in areas of no or light precipitation. To address this, an extension of CBPK, referred to herein as extended conditional bias penalized kriging (ECBPK), has been developed which combines the CBPK estimate with a trivial estimate of zero precipitation. To evaluate ECBPK, we carried out real-world and synthetic experiments in which ECBPK and the gauge-only precipitation analysis procedure used in the NWS's Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) were compared for estimation of point precipitation and mean areal precipitation (MAP), respectively. The results indicate that ECBPK improves hourly gauge-only estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation significantly. The improvement is particularly large for estimation of MAP for a range of combinations of basin size and rain gauge network density. This paper describes the technique, summarizes the results and shares ideas for future research.

Sub-seasonal Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events: Implication for Real-time Flood Management in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, H.; Shahbazi, A.; Zohrabi, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Mofidi, A.; Massah Bavani, A. R.

2016-12-01

Each year, a number of high impact weather events occur worldwide. Since any level of predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale is highly beneficial to society, international efforts is now on progress to promote reliable Ensemble Prediction Systems for monthly forecasts within the WWRP/WCRP initiative (S2S) project and North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME). For water resources managers in the face of extreme events, not only can reliable forecasts of high impact weather events prevent catastrophic losses caused by floods but also contribute to benefits gained from hydropower generation and water markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the predictability of recent severe weather events over Iran. Two recent heavy precipitations are considered as an illustration to examine whether S2S forecasts can be used for developing flood alert systems especially where large cascade of dams are in operation. Both events have caused major damages to cities and infrastructures. The first severe precipitation was is in the early November 2015 when heavy precipitation (more than 50 mm) occurred in 2 days. More recently, up to 300 mm of precipitation is observed within less than a week in April 2016 causing a consequent flash flood. Over some stations, the observed precipitation was even more than the total annual mean precipitation. To analyze the predictive capability, ensemble forecasts from several operational centers including (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Chinese Meteorological Center (CMA) are evaluated. It has been observed that significant changes in precipitation anomalies were likely to be predicted days in advance. The next step will be to conduct thorough analysis based on comparing multi-model outputs over the full hindcast dataset developing real-time high impact weather prediction systems.

The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

Science.gov (United States)

Scofield, Rod; Vicente, Gilberto; Hodges, Mike

2000-01-01

This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\\V plumes were associated with most of the \\vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted

Dynamic simulation of the in-tank precipitation process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hang, T.; Shanahan, K.L.; Gregory, M.V.; Walker, D.D.

1993-01-01

As part of the High-Level Waste Tank Farm at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the In-Tank Precipitation (ITP) facility was designed to decontaminate the radioactive waste supernate by removing cesium as precipitated cesium tetraphenylborate. A dynamic computer model of the ITP process was developed using SPEEDUP TM software to provide guidance in the areas of operation and production forecast, production scheduling, safety, air emission, and process improvements. The model performs material balance calculations in all phase (solid, liquid, and gas) for 50 key chemical constituents to account for inventory accumulation, depletion, and dilution. Calculations include precipitation, benzene radiolytic reactions, evaporation, dissolution, adsorption, filtration, and stripping. To control the ITP batch operation a customized FORTRAN program was generated and linked to SPEEDUP TM simulation This paper summarizes the model development and initial results of the simulation study

Black carbon and West African Monsoon precipitation. Observations and simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, J.; Adams, A.; Zhang, C.; Wang, C.

2009-01-01

We have recently investigated large-scale co-variability between aerosol and precipitation and other meteorological variables in the West African Monsoon (WAM) region using long term satellite observations and reanalysis data. In this study we compared the observational results to a global model simulation including only direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC). From both observations and model simulations we found that in boreal cold seasons anomalously high African aerosols are associated with significant reductions in cloud amount, cloud top height, and surface precipitation. These results suggest that the observed precipitation reduction in the WAM region is caused by radiative effect of BC. The result also suggests that the BC effect on precipitation is nonlinear. (orig.)

Mathematical modeling and simulation of nanopore blocking by precipitation

KAUST Repository

Wolfram, M-T

2010-10-29

High surface charges of polymer pore walls and applied electric fields can lead to the formation and subsequent dissolution of precipitates in nanopores. These precipitates block the pore, leading to current fluctuations. We present an extended Poisson-Nernst-Planck system which includes chemical reactions of precipitation and dissolution. We discuss the mathematical modeling and present 2D numerical simulations. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Prior history of Mistral and Tramontane winds modulates heavy precipitation events in southern France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ségolène Berthou

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events (HPEs are frequent in southern France in autumn. An HPE results from landward transport of low-level moisture from the Western Mediterranean: large potential instability is then released by local convergence and/or orography. In the upstream zone, the sea surface temperature (SST undergoes significant variations at the submonthly time scale primarily driven by episodic highly energetic events of relatively cold outflows from the neighbouring mountain ranges (the Mistral and Tramontane winds. Here, we study the HPE of 22–23 September 1994 which is preceded by a strong SST cooling due to the Mistral and Tramontane winds. This case confirms that the location of the precipitation is modulated by the SST in the upstream zone. In fact, changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes due to SST changes induce pressure and stratification changes which affect the low-level dynamics. Using three companion regional climate simulations running from 1989 to 2009, this article statistically shows that anomalies in the HPEs significantly correlate with the SST anomalies in the Western Mediterranean, and hence with the prior history of Mistral and Tramontane winds. In such cases, the role of the ocean as an integrator of the effect of past wind events over one or several weeks does indeed have an impact on HPEs in southern France.

Numerical simulation of heavy precipitation events using mesoscale weather forecast models. Validation with radar data and diagnosis of the atmospheric moisture budget; Numerische Simulation von Starkniederschlagsereignissen mit mesoskaligen Wettervorhersagemodellen. Ueberpruefung mit Radar-Daten und Diagnose der atmosphaerischen Wasserbilanz

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keil, C.

2000-07-01

Convective precipitation systems contribute substantially to the summertime rainfall maximum in the northern Alpine region. The capability of mesoscale weather forecast models in capturing such heavy precipitation events is investigated. The complementary application of so far hardly used areal radar data and conventional rain gauge observations enables a case-study-type evaluation of summertime precipitation episodes. Different rainfall episodes are simulated with the former operational model (DM, meshsize 14 km) of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The influence of the horizontal resolution and the parameterization of moist convection is subsequently studied with a higher resolution atmospheric model (MC2, meshsize 2 km). Diagnostic studies on the atmospheric water budget regarding the rainfall episode, which instigated the Oder-flood in summer 1997, allow an examination of the origin of the moisture and the genesis of the copious precipitation. (orig.) [German] Konvektive Niederschlagssysterne tragen im Nordalpenraum wesentlich zum sommerlichen Niederschlagsmaximum bei. Die Faehigkeit mesoskaliger Wettervorhersagemodelle, solche Starkniederschlagsereignisse zu erfassen, wird in dieser Arbeit untersucht. Durch den komplementaeren Gebrauch von, bisher kaum genutzten, flaechendeckenden Radardaten und konventionellen Niederschlagsmessungen des Bodenmessnetzes werden Modellergebnisse sommerlicher Niederschlagssysteme fallstudienhaft detailliert ueberprueft. Fuer verschiedene Starkniederschlagsereignisse werden dazu Modellsimulationen mit dem in den 90er Jahren operationellen Modell (DM, Maschenweite 14 km) des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) durchgefuehrt. Zur Untersuchung des Einflusses der horizontalen Maschenweite und der Niederschlagsparametrisierung werden ferner numerische Simulationen mit einem hoeher aufloesdenden Atmosphaerenmodell (MC2, Maschenweite 2 km) behandelt. Anhand diagnostischer Untersuchungen der atmosphaerischen Wasserbilanz laesst sich ausserdem die

Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

2017-12-01

. However, the COSTRICE simulations are generally more accurate than the atmosphere-only CCLM simulations if extreme precipitation is considered, particularly under Northerly Circulation conditions, in which the airflow from the North Atlantic Ocean passes the North Sea in the coupling domain. The air-sea feedback (e.g., wind, evaporation and sea surface temperature) and land-sea interactions are better reproduced with the COSTRICE model system than the atmosphere-only CCLM and lead to an improved simulation of large-scale moisture convergence from the sea to land and, consequently, increased heavy precipitation over Central Europe.

Diurnal variation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. A cloud-resolving simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Jianyu; Zhang, Bing; Wang, Minghuan [China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan (China). Wuhan Inst. of Heavy Rain; Wang, Huijuan [Weather Modification Office of Hubei Province, Wuhan (China)

2012-07-01

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the diurnal variation in summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) at a cloudresolving scale. Compared with the TRMM, precipitation data shows that the model can well simulate the diurnal rainfall cycle with an overall late-afternoon maximum precipitation in the central TP and a nighttime maximum in the southern edge. The simulated diurnal variations in regional circulation and thermodynamics are in good correspondence with the precipitation diurnal cycles in the central and southern edge of TP, respectively. A possible mechanism responsible for the nocturnal precipitation maximum in the southern edge has been proposed, indicating the importance of the TP in regulating the regional circulation and precipitation. (orig.)

Numerical Simulations of Urea Hydrolysis and Calcite Precipitation in Porous Media Using STOMP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Luanjing; Huang, Hai; Hu, Bill X.

2010-01-01

Subsurface radionuclide and trace metal contaminants throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex pose one of DOE's greatest challenges for long-term stewardship. One promising in situ immobilization approach of these contaminants is engineered mineral (co)precipitation of calcite driven by urea hydrolysis that is catalyzed by enzyme urease. The tight nonlinear coupling among flow, transport, reaction and reaction-induced property changes of media of this approach was studied by reactive transport simulations with systematically increasing level of complexities of reaction network and physical/chemical heterogeneities using a numerical simulator named STOMP. Sensitivity studies on the reaction rates of both urea hydrolysis and calcite precipitation are performed via controlling urease enzyme concentration and precipitation rate constant according to the rate models employed. We have found that the rate of ureolysis is a dominating factor in the amount of precipitated mineral; however, the spatial distribution of the precipitates depends on both rates of ureolysis and calcite precipitation. A maximum 5% reduction in the porosity was observed within the simulation time period of 6 pore volumes in our 1-dimensional (1D) column simulations. When a low permeability inclusion is considered in the 2D simulations, the altered flow fields redistribute mineral forming constituents, leading to a distorted precipitation reaction front. The simulations also indicate that mineral precipitation occurs along the boundary of the low permeability zone, which implies that contaminants in the low permeability zone could be encapsulated and isolated from the flow paths.

Effective assimilation of global precipitation: simulation experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo-Yuan Lien

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Past attempts to assimilate precipitation by nudging or variational methods have succeeded in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed values. However, the model forecasts tend to lose their additional skill after a few forecast hours. In this study, a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF is used to effectively assimilate precipitation by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights in the analysis. In addition, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are found to alleviate the problems related to the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variable: (a transform the precipitation variable into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution (an approach that could also be used in the assimilation of other non-Gaussian observations and (b only assimilate precipitation at the location where at least some ensemble members have precipitation. Unlike many current approaches, both positive and zero rain observations are assimilated effectively. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs are conducted using the Simplified Parametrisations, primitivE-Equation DYnamics (SPEEDY model, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When uniformly and globally distributed observations of precipitation are assimilated in addition to rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium-range forecasts of all model variables, including precipitation, are significantly improved as compared to only assimilating rawinsonde observations. The effect of precipitation assimilation on the analyses is retained on the medium-range forecasts and is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH than that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH because the NH analyses are already made more accurate by the denser rawinsonde stations. These improvements are much reduced when only the moisture field is modified by the precipitation observations. Both the Gaussian transformation and

Effective removal of coordinated copper from wastewater using a new dithiocarbamate-type supramolecular heavy metal precipitant.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Fenglian; Zeng, Haiyan; Cai, Qinhong; Qiu, Rongliang; Yu, Jimmy; Xiong, Ya

2007-11-01

A new dithiocarbamate-type heavy metal precipitant, sodium 1,3,5-hexahydrotriazinedithiocarbamate (HTDC), was prepared and used to remove coordinated copper from wastewater. In the reported dithiocarbamate-type precipitants, HTDC possesses the highest percentage of the effective functional groups. It could effectively precipitate copper to less than 0.5mgl(-1) from both synthetic and actual industrial wastewater containing CuEDTA in the range of pH 3-9. UV-vis spectral investigation and elemental analysis suggested that the precipitate was a kind of coordination supramolecular compound, [Cu(3)(HTDC)(2)](n). The toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) and semi-dynamic leaching test (SDLT) indicated that the supramolecular precipitate was non-hazardous and stable in weak acid and alkaline conditions. Tests of an anion exchange resin D231 provided a clue to simultaneously remove excess HTDC and residual CuEDTA in practical process of wastewater treatment.

Characterization of the precipitates formed during the denitration of simulated HRLW

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Music, S.; Ristic, M.; Popovic, S.

1989-01-01

The denitration of several chemical compositions of simulated highly radioactive liquid waste (HRLW) was performed using formic acid as reducing agent. Precipitates formed during the denitration of simulated HRLW were analyzed using x-ray diffraction and 57 Fe Moessbauer spectroscopy. Goethite and amorphous fractions were the principal phases in these precipitates. It was found that the chemical composition of HRLW and the experimental conditions of denitration had more influence on the crystal formation and the particle size than on the phase composition of the precipitates. (author) 27 refs.; 6 figs.; 6 tabs

Simulations of monthly mean nitrate concentrations in precipitation over East Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Junling An; Xinjin Cheng; Ueda, Hiromasa; Kajino, Mizuo

2002-01-01

Monthly mean nitrate concentrations in precipitation over East Asia (10-55 o N, 75-155 o E) in April, July, September, and December of 1999 were simulated by using a regional air quality Eulerian model (RAQM) with meteorological fields four times per day taken from National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The distribution of the nitrate concentration in precipitation depends significantly on the emission patterns of nitrogen oxides (NO x =NO+NO 2 ) and volatile organic compound (VOC) and seasonal precipitation variability. The downward trend is also revealed, particularly on July and December. Highest concentrations are found in the industrialized regions, i.e., the coastal area of the Mainland of China, the Bay of the Huanghai Sea and the Bohai Sea, Korea, and Southern Japan. Long-range transport may cause elevated concentrations in remote areas downwind of the industrialized regions under favorable meteorological conditions, e.g., low precipitation. Comparison of observation and simulations indicates that the RAQM model reasonably predicts synoptic-scale changes in different months (seasons) and simulated nitrate levels in 4 months fit observed data with the discrepancy within a factor of 2. Exclusion of liquid chemistry within clouds is feasible for regional (1 o x1 o ) and long-term (monthly) nitrate simulations. The uncertainty originates mainly from that of the emission data and modeled precipitation amounts and initial and boundary conditions. (author)

Combined strategy for the precipitation of heavy metals and biodegradation of petroleum in industrial wastewaters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez, R.M.; Cabrera, G.; Gomez, J.M.; Abalos, A.; Cantero, D.

2010-01-01

The precipitation of chromium(III), copper(II), manganese(II) and zinc(II) by biogenic hydrogen sulfide generated by sulfate-reducing bacteria, Desulfovibrio sp., and the degradation of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in the presence of heavy metal by Pseudomonas aeruginosa AT18 have been carried out. An anaerobic stirred tank reactor was used to generate hydrogen sulfide with Desulfovibrio sp. culture and the precipitation of more than 95% of each metal was achieved in 24 h (metal solutions contained: 60, 49, 50 and 80 mg L -1 of chromium, copper, manganese and zinc sulfates). A stirred tank reactor with P. aeruginosa AT18, in the presence of the heavy metal solution and 2% (v/v) of petroleum, led to the degradation of 60% of the total petroleum hydrocarbons and the removal of Cr(III) 99%, Cu(II) 93%, Zn(II) 46% and Mn(II) 88% in the medium through biosorption phenomena. These results enabled the development of an integrated system in which the two processes were combined. The overall aim of the study was achieved, with 84% of TPH degraded and all of the metals completely removed. Work is currently underway aimed at improving this system (decrease in operation time, culture of P. aeruginosa in anaerobic conditions) in an effort to apply this process in the bioremediation of natural media contaminated with heavy metals and petroleum.

Improved hydrological modeling for remote regions using a combination of observed and simulated precipitation data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Linden, Sandra; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

2003-01-01

-resolution regional climate model (HIRHAM4) with a mean-field bias correction using observed precipitation. A hydrological model (USAFLOW) was applied to simulate runoff using observed precipitation and a combination of observed and simulated precipitation as input. The method was illustrated for the remote Usa basin......, situated in the European part of Arctic Russia, close to the Ural Mountains. It was shown that runoff simulations agree better with observations when the combined precipitation data set was used than when only observed precipitation was used. This appeared to be because the HIRHAM4 model data compensated...... for the absence of observed data from mountainous areas where precipitation is orographically enhanced. In both cases, the runoff simulated by USAFLOW was superior to the runoff simulated within the HIRHAM4 model itself. This was attributed to the rather simplistic description of the water balance in the HIRHAM4...

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-08-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

Climatic trends of different intensity heavy precipitation events concentration in China%中国强降水过程时空集中度气候趋势

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

谢志清; 杜银; 姜爱军

2005-01-01

Based on 740 stations of daily precipitation datasets in China, the precipitationconcentration degree (PCD) and precipitation-concentration period (PCP) of different intensity durative precipitation events were calculated to analyze their statistical characteristics, mainly including spatial and temporal distributions, variations and climatic trends of the two parameters of the durative heavy precipitation events in China. It is proved that these two parameters of heavy rainfall can display the temporal inhomogeneity in the precipitation field. And it is also found that there is a good positive relationship between the precipitation-concentration degree and annual rainfall amount in the Eastern and Central China. This method can be applied in flood assessment and climate change fields.

Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

Science.gov (United States)

Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.

2014-02-01

The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain subcontinental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, and central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multimodel ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and Central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g., western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, intermodel variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The quantile bias analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values but does not make a significant improvement at high quantiles of precipitation.

Simulations of reactive transport and precipitation with smoothed particle hydrodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.; Meakin, Paul; Scheibe, Timothy D.; Eichler West, Rogene M.

2007-03-01

A numerical model based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) was developed for reactive transport and mineral precipitation in fractured and porous materials. Because of its Lagrangian particle nature, SPH has several advantages for modeling Navier-Stokes flow and reactive transport including: (1) in a Lagrangian framework there is no non-linear term in the momentum conservation equation, so that accurate solutions can be obtained for momentum dominated flows and; (2) complicated physical and chemical processes such as surface growth due to precipitation/dissolution and chemical reactions are easy to implement. In addition, SPH simulations explicitly conserve mass and linear momentum. The SPH solution of the diffusion equation with fixed and moving reactive solid-fluid boundaries was compared with analytical solutions, Lattice Boltzmann [Q. Kang, D. Zhang, P. Lichtner, I. Tsimpanogiannis, Lattice Boltzmann model for crystal growth from supersaturated solution, Geophysical Research Letters, 31 (2004) L21604] simulations and diffusion limited aggregation (DLA) [P. Meakin, Fractals, scaling and far from equilibrium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1998] model simulations. To illustrate the capabilities of the model, coupled three-dimensional flow, reactive transport and precipitation in a fracture aperture with a complex geometry were simulated.

Predictability of heavy sub-hourly precipitation amounts for a weather radar based nowcasting system

Science.gov (United States)

Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

2015-04-01

Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods are one of the most dramatic hazards in many regions such as the Mediterranean basin as recently stressed in the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) international programme. The focus of this study is to assess the quality of very short range (below 3 hour lead times) precipitation forecasts based on weather radar nowcasting system. Specific nowcasting amounts of 10 and 30 minutes generated with a nowcasting technique (Berenguer et al 2005, 2011) are compared against raingauge observations and also weather radar precipitation estimates observed over Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Water Catalan Agency. Results allow to discuss the feasibility of issuing warnings for different precipitation amounts and lead times for a number of case studies, including very intense convective events with 30minute precipitation amounts exceeding 40 mm (Bech et al 2005, 2011). As indicated by a number of verification scores single based radar precipitation nowcasts decrease their skill quickly with increasing lead times and rainfall thresholds. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.024 Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-129-2007 Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa0nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radar based nowcasting technique. Journal of

Synthesis of high purity tungsten nanoparticles from tungsten heavy alloy scrap by selective precipitation and reduction route

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamal, S.S. Kalyan; Sahoo, P.K.; Vimala, J.; Shanker, B.; Ghosal, P.; Durai, L.

2016-01-01

In this paper we report synthesis of tungsten nanoparticles of high purity >99.7 wt% from heavy alloy scrap using a novel chemical route of selective precipitation and reduction. The effect of Poly(vinylpyrrolidone) polymer on controlling the particle size is established through FTIR spectra and corroborated with TEM images, wherein the average size decreased form 210 to 45 nm with increasing PVP content from zero to 2 g under different experimental conditions. This process is economical as raw material is a scrap and the efficiency of the reaction is >95%. - Highlights: • Tungsten nanoparticles were synthesized from tungsten heavy alloy scrap. • A novel chemical route of precipitation and reduction with Poly(vinylpyrrolidone) polymer as stabilizer is reported. • The average size decreased form 210 to 45 nm with increasing PVP content from zero to 2 g. • High pure tungsten nanoparticles of >99.7% purity could be synthesized using this route. • Efficiency of the reaction is >95%.

Coverage probability of bootstrap confidence intervals in heavy-tailed frequency models, with application to precipitation data

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kyselý, Jan

2010-01-01

Roč. 101, 3-4 (2010), s. 345-361 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420801 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : bootstrap * extreme value analysis * confidence intervals * heavy-tailed distributions * precipitation amounts Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.684, year: 2010

Simulation of effects of redox and precipitation on diffusion of uranium solution species in backfill

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carnahan, C.L.

1987-12-01

This investigation addresses the problem of prediction of the rate of migration of redox-sensitive solution species within packing and backfill materials under conditions of variable oxidation potential. Effects of changes of oxidation potential and precipitation of stable uranium compounds during diffusion of uranium from a region of high oxidation potential into a region of low oxidation potential were simulated numerically. Questions of particular interest addressed in the investigation were the existence of a moving ''redox front'' and the influence of precipitation-dissolution processes on uranium migration. The simulations showed that no expanding redox fronts existed at any simulated time up to 3.2 x 10 5 years (10 13 s). In simulations where precipitation of stable solids was not allowed, variations of oxidation potential did not affect total uranium concentrations in solution. Concentration profiles could be predicted simply by diffusion of the (constant) source concentrations. In simulations where precipitation of stable solids was allowed, uraninite and calcium uranate accumulated at the source-transport domain interface, while coffinite penetrated further into the transport domain. Total uranium concentrations in regions of precipitation were determined by solubilities of the precipitated solids, and were six to seven orders of magnitude lower than those in the simulations without precipitation, throughout the domain of transport. 14 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

A Study of Precipitation Climatology and Its Variability over Europe Using an Advanced Regional Model (WRF)

KAUST Repository

Dasari, Hari Prasad

2015-03-06

In recent years long-term precipitation trends on a regional scale have been given emphasis due to the impacts of global warming on regional hydrology. In this study, regional precipitation trends are simulated over the Europe continent for a 60-year period in 1950-2010 using an advanced regional model, WRF, to study extreme precipitation events over Europe. The model runs continuously for each year during the period at a horizontal resolution of 25 km with initial/ boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 2.5 degree reanalysis data sets. The E-OBS 0.25 degree rainfall observation analysis is used for model validation. Results indicate that the model could reproduce the spatial annual rainfall pattern over Europe with low amounts (250 - 750 mm) in Iberian Peninsula, moderate to large amounts (750 - 1500 mm) in central, eastern and northeastern parts of Europe and extremely heavy falls (1500 - 2000 mm) in hilly areas of Alps with a slight overestimation in Alps and underestimation in other parts of Europe. The regional model integrations showed increasing errors (mean absolute errors) and decreasing correlations with increasing time scale (daily to seasonal). Rainfall is simulated relatively better in Iberian Peninsula, northwest and central parts of Europe. A large spatial variability with the highest number of wet days over eastern, central Europe and Alps (~200 days/year) and less number of wet days over Iberian Peninsula (≤150 days/year) is also found in agreement with observations. The model could simulate the spatial rainfall climate variability reasonably well with low rainfall days (1 - 10 mm/days) in almost all zones, heavy rainfall events in western, northern, southeastern hilly and coastal zones and extremely heavy rainfall events in northern coastal zones. An increasing trend of heavy rainfall in central, southern and southeastern parts, a decreasing trend in Iberian Peninsula and a steady trend in other

Heavy-ion collimation at the Large Hadron Collider. Simulations and measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hermes, Pascal Dominik

2016-12-19

The CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) stores and collides proton and {sup 208}Pb{sup 82+} beams of unprecedented energy and intensity. Thousands of superconducting magnets, operated at 1.9 K, guide the very intense and energetic particle beams, which have a large potential for destruction. This implies the demand for a multi-stage collimation system to provide protection from beam-induced quenches or even hardware damage. In heavy-ion operation, ion fragments with significant rigidity offsets can still scatter out of the collimation system. When they irradiate the superconducting LHC magnets, the latter risk to quench (lose their superconducting property). These secondary collimation losses can potentially impose a limitation for the stored heavy-ion beam energy. Therefore, their distribution in the LHC needs to be understood by sophisticated simulations. Such simulation tools must accurately simulate the particle motion of many different nuclides in the magnetic LHC lattice and simulate their interaction with the collimators. Previous simulation tools used simplified models for the simulation of particle-matter interaction and showed discrepancies compared to the measured loss patterns. This thesis describes the development and application of improved heavy-ion collimation simulation tools. Two different approaches are presented to provide these functionalities. In the first presented tool, called STIER, fragmentation at the primary collimator is simulated with the Monte-Carlo event generator FLUKA. The ion fragments scattered out of the primary collimator are subsequently tracked as protons with ion-equivalent rigidities in the existing proton tracking tool SixTrack. This approach was used to prepare the collimator settings for the 2015 LHC heavy-ion run and its predictions allowed reducing undesired losses. More accurate simulation results are obtained with the second presented simulation tool, in which SixTrack is extended to track arbitrary heavy ions. This new

Heavy-ion collimation at the Large Hadron Collider. Simulations and measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermes, Pascal Dominik

2016-01-01

The CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) stores and collides proton and 208 Pb 82+ beams of unprecedented energy and intensity. Thousands of superconducting magnets, operated at 1.9 K, guide the very intense and energetic particle beams, which have a large potential for destruction. This implies the demand for a multi-stage collimation system to provide protection from beam-induced quenches or even hardware damage. In heavy-ion operation, ion fragments with significant rigidity offsets can still scatter out of the collimation system. When they irradiate the superconducting LHC magnets, the latter risk to quench (lose their superconducting property). These secondary collimation losses can potentially impose a limitation for the stored heavy-ion beam energy. Therefore, their distribution in the LHC needs to be understood by sophisticated simulations. Such simulation tools must accurately simulate the particle motion of many different nuclides in the magnetic LHC lattice and simulate their interaction with the collimators. Previous simulation tools used simplified models for the simulation of particle-matter interaction and showed discrepancies compared to the measured loss patterns. This thesis describes the development and application of improved heavy-ion collimation simulation tools. Two different approaches are presented to provide these functionalities. In the first presented tool, called STIER, fragmentation at the primary collimator is simulated with the Monte-Carlo event generator FLUKA. The ion fragments scattered out of the primary collimator are subsequently tracked as protons with ion-equivalent rigidities in the existing proton tracking tool SixTrack. This approach was used to prepare the collimator settings for the 2015 LHC heavy-ion run and its predictions allowed reducing undesired losses. More accurate simulation results are obtained with the second presented simulation tool, in which SixTrack is extended to track arbitrary heavy ions. This new tracking

Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

2011-12-01

The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

Biogenic precipitation of manganese oxides and enrichment of heavy metals at acidic soil pH

Science.gov (United States)

Mayanna, Sathish; Peacock, Caroline L.; Schäffner, Franziska; Grawunder, Anja; Merten, Dirk; Kothe, Erika; Büchel, Georg

2014-05-01

The precipitation of biogenic Mn oxides at acidic pH is rarely reported and poorly understood, compared to biogenic Mn oxide precipitation at near neutral conditions. Here we identified and investigated the precipitation of biogenic Mn oxides in acidic soil, and studied their role in the retention of heavy metals, at the former uranium mining site of Ronneburg, Germany. The site is characterized by acidic pH, low carbon content and high heavy metal loads including rare earth elements. Specifically, the Mn oxides were present in layers identified by detailed soil profiling and within these layers pH varied from 4.7 to 5.1, Eh varied from 640 to 660 mV and there were enriched total metal contents for Ba, Ni, Co, Cd and Zn in addition to high Mn levels. Using electron microprobe analysis, synchrotron X-ray diffraction and X-ray absorption spectroscopy, we identified poorly crystalline birnessite (δ-MnO2) as the dominant Mn oxide in the Mn layers, present as coatings covering and cementing quartz grains. With geochemical modelling we found that the environmental conditions at the site were not favourable for chemical oxidation of Mn(II), and thus we performed 16S rDNA sequencing to isolate the bacterial strains present in the Mn layers. Bacterial phyla present in the Mn layers belonged to Firmicutes, Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria, and from these phyla we isolated six strains of Mn(II) oxidizing bacteria and confirmed their ability to oxidise Mn(II) in the laboratory. The biogenic Mn oxide layers act as a sink for metals and the bioavailability of these metals was much lower in the Mn layers than in adjacent layers, reflecting their preferential sorption to the biogenic Mn oxide. In this presentation we will report our findings, concluding that the formation of natural biogenic poorly crystalline birnessite can occur at acidic pH, resulting in the formation of a biogeochemical barrier which, in turn, can control the mobility and bioavailability of heavy metals in

An assessment of the impact of ATMS and CrIS data assimilation on precipitation prediction over the Tibetan Plateau

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Xue

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system and the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW regional model, the impact of assimilating Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS satellite data on precipitation prediction over the Tibetan Plateau in July 2015 was evaluated. Four experiments were designed: a control experiment and three data assimilation experiments with different data sets injected: conventional data only, a combination of conventional and ATMS satellite data, and a combination of conventional and CrIS satellite data. The results showed that the monthly mean of precipitation is shifted northward in the simulations and showed an orographic bias described as an overestimation upwind of the mountains and an underestimation in the south of the rain belt. The rain shadow mainly influenced prediction of the quantity of precipitation, although the main rainfall pattern was well simulated. For the first 24 h and last 24 h of accumulated daily precipitation, the model generally overestimated the amount of precipitation, but it was underestimated in the heavy-rainfall periods of 3–5, 13–16, and 22–25 July. The observed water vapor conveyance from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was larger than in the model simulations, which induced inaccuracies in the forecast of heavy rain on 3–5 July. The data assimilation experiments, particularly the ATMS assimilation, were closer to the observations for the heavy-rainfall process than the control. Overall, based on the experiments in July 2015, the satellite data assimilation improved to some extent the prediction of the precipitation pattern over the Tibetan Plateau, although the simulation of the rain belt without data assimilation shows the regional shifting.

Simulated precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia using different CAPE-based convective closure schemes in WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ben; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Yaocun; Huang, Anning; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Lujun

2018-03-01

Closure assumption in convection parameterization is critical for reasonably modeling the precipitation diurnal variation in climate models. This study evaluates the precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia during the summer of 2008 simulated with three convective available potential energy (CAPE) based closure assumptions, i.e. CAPE-relaxing (CR), quasi-equilibrium (QE), and free-troposphere QE (FTQE) and investigates the impacts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing, advection, and radiation on the simulation by using the weather research and forecasting model. The sensitivity of precipitation diurnal cycle to PBL vertical resolution is also examined. Results show that the precipitation diurnal cycles simulated with different closures all exhibit large biases over land and the simulation with FTQE closure agrees best with observation. In the simulation with QE closure, the intensified PBL mixing after sunrise is responsible for the late-morning peak of convective precipitation, while in the simulation with FTQE closure, convective precipitation is mainly controlled by advection cooling. The relative contributions of different processes to precipitation formation are functions of rainfall intensity. In the simulation with CR closure, the dynamical equilibrium in the free troposphere still can be reached, implying the complex cause-effect relationship between atmospheric motion and convection. For simulations in which total CAPE is consumed for the closures, daytime precipitation decreases with increased PBL resolution because thinner model layer produces lower convection starting layer, leading to stronger downdraft cooling and CAPE consumption. The sensitivity of the diurnal peak time of precipitation to closure assumption can also be modulated by changes in PBL vertical resolution. The results of this study help us better understand the impacts of various processes on the precipitation diurnal cycle simulation.

Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Egidijus Rimkus

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

Structural Study of Asphaltenes from Iranian Heavy Crude Oil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davarpanah L.

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In the present study, asphaltene precipitation from Iranian heavy crude oil (Persian Gulf off-shore was performed using n-pentane (n-C5 and n-heptane (n-C7 as light alkane precipitants. Several analytical techniques, each following different principles, were then used to structurally characterize the precipitated asphaltenes. The yield of asphaltene obtained using n-pentane precipitant was higher than asphaltene precipitated with the use of n-heptane. The asphaltene removal affected the n-C5 and n-C7 maltene fractions at temperatures below 204°C, as shown by the data obtained through the simulated distillation technique. Viscosity of heavy oil is influenced by the asphaltene content and behavior. The viscosity dependence of the test heavy oil on the shear rate applied was determined and the flow was low at y. above 25 s-1 . The reconstituted heavy oil samples were prepared by adding different amounts of asphaltenes to the maltenes (deasphalted heavy oil and asphaltene effects were more pronounced at the low temperature of 25°C as compared with those at the higher temperatures. According to the power law model used in this study the flowability of the test heavy oil exhibited a pseudoplastic character. Structural results obtained from Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR spectroscopy showed the presence of the different functional groups in the precipitated asphaltenes. For instance, the presence of different hydrocarbons (aliphatic, aromatic and alicyclic based on their characteristics in the FTIR spectra was confirmed. Resins are effective dispersants, and removal of this fraction from the crude oil is disturbing to the colloidal nature of heavy oil; asphaltene flocculation and precipitation eventually occur. Appearance of pores in the Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM images was used as an indicator of the resin detachment. With the use of 1H and 13C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR spectroscopy, two important structural parameters of the

Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

2017-10-01

Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

Simulation studies of acceleration of heavy ions and their elemental compositions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toida, Mieko; Ohsawa, Yukiharu

1996-07-01

By using a one-dimensional, electromagnetic particle simulation code with full ion and electron dynamics, we have studied the acceleration of heavy ions by a nonlinear magnetosonic wave in a multi-ion-species plasma. First, we describe the mechanism of heavy ion acceleration by magnetosonic waves. We then investigate this by particle simulations. The simulation plasma contains four ion species: H, He, O, and Fe. The number density of He is taken to be 10% of that of H, and those of O and Fe are much lower. Simulations confirm that, as in a single-ion-species plasma, some of the hydrogens can be accelerated by the longitudinal electric field formed in the wave. Furthermore, they show that magnetosonic waves can accelerate all the particles of all the heavy species (He, O, and Fe) by a different mechanism, i.e., by the transverse electric field. The maximum speeds of the heavy species are about the same, of the order of the wave propagation speed. These are in good agreement with theoretical prediction. These results indicate that, if high-energy ions are produced in the solar corona through these mechanisms, the elemental compositions of these heavy ions can be similar to that of the background plasma, i.e., the corona

Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Chunlei; Allan, Richard P

2013-01-01

Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K −1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K −1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming. (letter)

Statistical simulation of ensembles of precipitation fields for data assimilation applications

Science.gov (United States)

Haese, Barbara; Hörning, Sebastian; Chwala, Christian; Bárdossy, András; Schalge, Bernd; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

The simulation of the hydrological cycle by models is an indispensable tool for a variety of environmental challenges such as climate prediction, water resources management, or flood forecasting. One of the crucial variables within the hydrological system, and accordingly one of the main drivers for terrestrial hydrological processes, is precipitation. A correct reproduction of the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation is crucial for the quality and performance of hydrological applications. In our approach we stochastically generate precipitation fields conditioned on various precipitation observations. Rain gauges provide high-quality information for a specific measurement point, but their spatial representativeness is often rare. Microwave links, e. g. from commercial cellular operators, on the other hand can be used to estimate line integrals of near-surface rainfall information. They provide a very dense observational system compared to rain gauges. A further prevalent source of precipitation information are weather radars, which provide rainfall pattern informations. In our approach we derive precipitation fields, which are conditioned on combinations of these different observation types. As method to generate precipitation fields we use the random mixing method. Following this method a precipitation field is received as a linear combination of unconditional spatial random fields, where the spatial dependence structure is described by copulas. The weights of the linear combination are chosen in the way that the observations and the spatial structure of precipitation are reproduced. One main advantage of the random mixing method is the opportunity to consider linear and non-linear constraints. For a demonstration of the method we use virtual observations generated from a virtual reality of the Neckar catchment. These virtual observations mimic advantages and disadvantages of real observations. This virtual data set allows us to evaluate simulated

Uncertainty of global summer precipitation in the CMIP5 models: a comparison between high-resolution and low-resolution models

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Danqing; Yan, Peiwen; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yaocun; Kuang, Xueyuan; Cheng, Jing

2018-04-01

The uncertainty of global summer precipitation simulated by the 23 CMIP5 CGCMs and the possible impacts of model resolutions are investigated in this study. Large uncertainties exist over the tropical and subtropical regions, which can be mainly attributed to convective precipitation simulation. High-resolution models (HRMs) and low-resolution models (LRMs) are further investigated to demonstrate their different contributions to the uncertainties of the ensemble mean. It shows that the high-resolution model ensemble means (HMME) and low-resolution model ensemble mean (LMME) mitigate the biases between the MME and observation over most continents and oceans, respectively. The HMME simulates more precipitation than the LMME over most oceans, but less precipitation over some continents. The dominant precipitation category in the HRMs (LRMs) is the heavy precipitation (moderate precipitation) over the tropic regions. The combinations of convective and stratiform precipitation are also quite different: the HMME has much higher ratio of stratiform precipitation while the LMME has more convective precipitation. Finally, differences in precipitation between the HMME and LMME can be traced to their differences in the SST simulations via the local and remote air-sea interaction.

Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Dodov, B.

2017-12-01

Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

PDF added value of a high resolution climate simulation for precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.

2015-04-01

dynamical downscaling, based on simple PDF skill scores. The measure can assess the full quality of the PDFs and at the same time integrates a flexible manner to weight differently the PDF tails. In this study we apply the referred method to characaterize the PDF added value of a high resolution simulation with the WRF model. Results from a WRF climate simulation centred at the Iberian Penisnula with two nested grids, a larger one at 27km and a smaller one at 9km. This simulation is forced by ERA-Interim. The observational data used covers from rain gauges precipitation records to observational regular grids of daily precipitation. Two regular gridded precipitation datasets are used. A Portuguese grid precipitation dataset developed at 0.2°× 0.2°, from observed rain gauges daily precipitation. A second one corresponding to the ENSEMBLES observational gridded dataset for Europe, which includes daily precipitation values at 0.25°. The analisys shows an important PDF added value from the higher resolution simulation, regarding the full PDF and the extremes. This method shows higher potential to be applied to other simulation exercises and to evaluate other variables.

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-02-24

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses.Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states.A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state.A water

Classical simulations of heavy-ion fusion reactions and weakly

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2014-04-30

Apr 30, 2014 ... Heavy-ion collision simulations in various classical models are discussed. ... are also simulated in a 3-stage classical molecular dynamics (3S-CMD) ... considered as a weakly-bound cluster of deuteron and 4He nuclei, thus, ...

Heavy metals precipitation in sewage sludge

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marchioretto, M.M.; Rulkens, W.H.; Bruning, H.

2005-01-01

There is a great need for heavy metal removal from strongly metal-polluted sewage sludges. One of the advantages of heavy metal removal from this type of sludge is the possibility of the sludge disposal to landfill with reduced risk of metals being leached to the surface and groundwater. Another

Computer simulation of phase transformation and plastic deformation in IN718 superalloy: Microstructural evolution during precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, N.; Lv, D.C.; Zhang, H.L.; McAllister, D.; Zhang, F.; Mills, M.J.; Wang, Y.

2014-01-01

Microstructural evolution during co-precipitation of γ′, γ″ and δ phases from a supersaturated γ matrix during aging of superalloy Inconel 718 (IN718) is investigated by computer simulation using the phase-field method. The precipitation model is quantitative, using as model inputs ab initio calculations of elastic constants, experimental data on lattice parameters, precipitate–matrix orientation relationship, interfacial energy of each individual precipitate phase and interdiffusivities, and a Ni–Nb–Al pseudo-ternary thermodynamic database specifically developed for IN718. In order to simulate statistically representative multiphase microstructures observed in the alloy, the Kim–Kim–Suzuki treatment of interfaces is employed. Simulation results show how alloy composition, lattice misfit, external stress, temperature and time affect precipitate microstructure and variant selection during isothermal aging, without any a priori assumptions about key microstructural features including size, shape, volume fraction and spatial distribution of different types of precipitates and different variants of the same precipitate phase. The shapes of precipitates and their coarsening kinetics are analyzed based on the two-dimensional moment invariant. The various multiphase microstructures generated by the simulations have been used as model inputs in a study to investigate how precipitate microstructure (in particular shape and spatial distribution) influences the strength of IN718

Processing of next generation weather radar-multisensor precipitation estimates and quantitative precipitation forecast data for the DuPage County streamflow simulation system

Science.gov (United States)

Bera, Maitreyee; Ortel, Terry W.

2018-01-12

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with DuPage County Stormwater Management Department, is testing a near real-time streamflow simulation system that assists in the management and operation of reservoirs and other flood-control structures in the Salt Creek and West Branch DuPage River drainage basins in DuPage County, Illinois. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey maintains a database of hourly meteorological and hydrologic data for use in this near real-time streamflow simulation system. Among these data are next generation weather radar-multisensor precipitation estimates and quantitative precipitation forecast data, which are retrieved from the North Central River Forecasting Center of the National Weather Service. The DuPage County streamflow simulation system uses these quantitative precipitation forecast data to create streamflow predictions for the two simulated drainage basins. This report discusses in detail how these data are processed for inclusion in the Watershed Data Management files used in the streamflow simulation system for the Salt Creek and West Branch DuPage River drainage basins.

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using

Merging Satellite Precipitation Products for Improved Streamflow Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Maggioni, V.; Massari, C.; Barbetta, S.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.

2017-12-01

statistics, as well as bias reduction and correlation coefficient, with the Bayesian approach being superior to other methods. A study case in the Tiber river basin is also presented to discuss the performance of forcing a hydrological model with the merged satellite precipitation product to simulate streamflow time series.

Monte-Carlo simulation of heavy-ion collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schenke, Bjoern; Jeon, Sangyong; Gale, Charles

2011-01-01

We present Monte-Carlo simulations for heavy-ion collisions combining PYTHIA and the McGill-AMY formalism to describe the evolution of hard partons in a soft background, modelled using hydrodynamic simulations. MARTINI generates full event configurations in the high p T region that take into account thermal QCD and QED effects as well as effects of the evolving medium. This way it is possible to perform detailed quantitative comparisons with experimental observables.

Application and Study of Precipitation Schemes in Weather Simulation in Summer and Winter over China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XU Guoqiang; WAN Qilin; HUANG Liping; XUE Jishan; CHEN Dehui

2006-01-01

Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme and Betts-Miller (BM) scheme in summer, the former scheme is better than the latter in this case. The ambient atmosphere may be varied by different convective schemes. The air is wetter and the updraft is stronger in the KF scheme than in the BM scheme, which can induce the more grid scale precipitation in the KF scheme, i.e., the different cumulus schemes may have the different and important effect on the grid scale precipitation. However, there is almost no convective rain in winter in northern China, so the effect of cumulus precipitation on the grid scale precipitation can be disregarded.Therefore, the gird scale precipitation is primary in the winter of northern China.

Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2008-05-15

In this study the potential future changes in various aspects of daily precipitation events over Europe as a consequence of the anticipated future increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are investigated. This is done by comparing two 3-member ensembles of simulations with the HIRHAM regional climate model for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100, respectively. Daily precipitation events are characterized by their frequency and intensity, and heavy precipitation events are described via 30-year return levels of daily precipitation. Further, extended periods with and without rainfall (wet and dry spells) are studied, considering their frequency and length as well as the average and extreme amounts of precipitation accumulated during wet spells, the latter again described via 30-year return levels. The simulations show marked changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe due to the anticipated greenhouse warming. In winter, for instance, the frequency of wet days is enhanced over most of the European continent except for the region on the Norwegian west coast and the Mediterranean region. The changes in the intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are characterized by a similar pattern except for central Europe with a tendency of decreased 30-year return levels and increased precipitation intensity. In summer, on the other hand, the frequency of wet days is decreased over most of Europe except for northern Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. In contrast, the precipitation intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are increased over entire Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe. The changes in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are generally stronger than the corresponding changes in the precipitation intensity but can have opposite signs in some regions. Also the distribution of wet days is changed in the future. During summer, for instance, both the frequency and the length

Comparison between 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation methods for the simulation of a heavy rainfall case in central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Mazzarella, Vincenzo; Maiello, Ida; Capozzi, Vincenzo; Budillon, Giorgio; Ferretti, Rossella

2017-08-01

This work aims to provide a comparison between three dimensional and four dimensional variational data assimilation methods (3D-Var and 4D-Var) for a heavy rainfall case in central Italy. To evaluate the impact of the assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity acquired from Monte Midia Doppler radar into the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is used.The two methods are compared for a heavy rainfall event that occurred in central Italy on 14 September 2012 during the first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment) campaign. This event, characterized by a deep low pressure system over the Tyrrhenian Sea, produced flash floods over the Marche and Abruzzo regions, where rainfall maxima reached more than 150 mm 24 h-1.To identify the best QPF, nine experiments are performed using 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation techniques. All simulations are compared in terms of rainfall forecast and precipitation measured by the gauges through three statistical indicators: probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI) and false alarm ratio (FAR). The assimilation of conventional observations with 4D-Var method improves the QPF compared to 3D-Var. In addition, the use of radar measurements in 4D-Var simulations enhances the performances of statistical scores for higher rainfall thresholds.

Heterogeneous precipitation of niobium carbide in the ferrite by Monte Carlo simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hin, C.

2005-12-01

The precipitation of niobium carbides in industrial steels is commonly used to control the recrystallization process or the amount of interstitial atoms in solid solution. It is then important to understand the precipitation kinetics and especially the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous precipitation, since both of them have been observed experimentally, depending on they alloy composition, microstructure and thermal treatments. We propose Monte Carlo simulations of NbC precipitation in □-iron, based on a simple atomic description of the main parameters which control the kinetic pathway: - Realistic diffusion properties, with a rapid diffusion of C atoms by interstitial jumps and a slower diffusion of Fe and Nb atoms by vacancy jumps; - A model of grain boundaries which reproduces the segregation properties of Nb and C; - A model of dislocation which interacts with solute atoms through local segregation energies and long range elastic field; - A point defect source which drives the vacancy concentration towards its equilibrium value. Depending on the precipitation conditions, Monte Carlo simulations predict different kinetic behaviors, including a transient precipitation of metastable carbides, an early segregation stage of C, wetting phenomena at grain boundaries and on dislocations and a competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous NbC precipitation. Concerning the last point, we highlight that long range elastic field due to dislocation favors clearly the heterogeneous precipitation on dislocations. To understand this effect, we have developed a heterogeneous nucleation model including the calculation of the local concentration of solute atoms around the dislocation, the change of the solubility limit relative to the solubility limit in bulk and the energy of precipitates in an elastic field. We have concluded that elastic field favors the heterogeneous precipitation through the fall in nucleation barrier. (author)

Molecular dynamics simulation of edge dislocation piled at cuboidal precipitate in Ni-based superalloy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yashiro, Kisaragi; Naito, Masato; Tomita, Yoshihiro

2003-01-01

In order to clarify the fundamental mechanism of dislocations in the γ/γ' microstructure of Ni-based superalloy, three molecular dynamics simulations are conducted on the behavior of edge dislocations nucleated from a free surface and proceeding in the pure Ni matrix (γ) toward cuboidal Ni 3 Al precipitates (γ') under shear force. One involves dislocations near the apices of two precipitates adjoining each other with the distance of 0.04 μm, as large as the width of the γ channel in real superalloys. Others simulate dislocations piled at the precipitates as well, however, the scale of the microstructure is smaller than that in real superalloys by one order of magnitude, and one of them have precipitates with atomistically sharp edge. Dislocations are pinned at precipitates and bowed-out in the γ channel, then they begin to penetrate into the precipitate at the edge in both the real-scale and smaller microstructures when the precipitates have blunt edges. On the other hand, an edge dislocation splits into a superpartial in the γ' precipitate and a misfit screw dislocation bridging between two adjacent precipitates at the atomistically sharp edge of γ' precipitates. It is also observed that two superpartials glide in the precipitate as a superdislocation with anti-phase boundary (APB), of which the width is evaluated to be about 4 nm. (author)

Simulation of competitive Cu precipitation in steel during non-isothermal aging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, J.B.; Yamashita, T.; Sano, N.; Enomoto, M.

2008-01-01

A numerical model has been developed to simulate Cu precipitation in dilute bcc Fe-Cu alloys during non-isothermal aging taking into account competitive nucleation at grain boundaries, dislocations and in the matrix, and structural transformation of Cu particles that occurs during growth. The temporal evolution of number density, mean particle size and size distribution during continuous cooling is simulated and is compared with experimental observations under transmission electron microscope and three-dimensional atom probe field ion microscope. With decreasing temperature the growth and coarsening rates diminishes rapidly whereas nucleation continues to occur down to lower temperatures due to the decrease in the activation energy of nucleation and thus, distributions of fine particles can be obtained relatively easily after cooling. Precipitation and dissolution during continuous heating are simulated and are compared with experimental observations in the literature

Heavy truck modeling for fuel consumption. Simulations and measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sandberg, T.

2001-12-01

Fuel consumption for heavy trucks depends on many factors like roads, weather, and driver behavior that are hard for a manufacturer to influence. However, one design possibility is the power train configuration. Here a new simulation program for heavy trucks is created to find the configuration of the power train that gives the lowest fuel consumption for each transport task. For efficient simulations the model uses production code for speed and gear control, and it uses exchangeable data sets to allow simulation of the whole production range of engine types, on recorded road profiles from all over the world. Combined with a graphical user interface this application is called STARS (Scania Truck And Road Simulation). The forces of rolling resistance and air resistance in the model are validated through an experiment where the propeller shaft torque of a heavy truck is measured. It is found that the coefficient of rolling resistance is strongly dependent on tire temperature, not only on vehicle speed as expected. This led to the development of a new model for rolling resistance. The model includes the dynamic behavior of the tires and relates rolling resistance to tire temperature and vehicle speed. In another experiment the fuel consumption of a test truck in highway driving is measured. The altitude of the road is recorded with a barometer and used in the corresponding simulations. Despite of the limited accuracy of this equipment the simulation program manage to predict a level of fuel consumption only 2% lower than the real measurements. It is concluded that STARS is a good tool for predicting fuel consumption for trucks in highway driving and for comparing different power train configurations.

Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, O. B.; Christensen, J. H.

2004-01-01

Heavy and/or extended precipitation episodes with subsequent surface runoff can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of such events could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Impacts of climate...... warming on severe precipitation events in Europe on a diurnal time scale were investigated with a high-resolution regional climate model for two of the greenhouse gas emission scenarios constructed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Nakicenovic, N., et al., 2000, IPCC special report...... models both originating from fully transient climate change simulations. Here, we show that although the summer time precipitation decreases over a substantial part of Europe in the scenarios analysed, an increase in the amount of precipitation exceeding the present-day 99th and in most cases even the 95...

Differences in rain rate intensities between TRMM observations and community atmosphere model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Yi; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Jackson, Charles

2007-01-01

Precipitation related latent heating is important in driving the atmospheric general circulation and in generating intraseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability. Our ability to project future climate change, especially trends in costly precipitation extremes, hinges upon whether coupled GCMs capture processes that affect precipitation characteristics. Our study compares the tropical-subtropical precipitation characteristics of simulations by the NCAR CAM3.1 atmospheric GCM and observations derived from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Despite a fairly good simulation of the annual mean rain rate, CAM rains about 10-50% more often than the real world and fails to capture heavy rainfall associated with deep convective systems over subtropical South America and U.S. Southern Plains. When it rains, there is a likelihood of 0.96-1.0 that it rains lightly in the model, compared to values of 0.84-1.0 in TRMM data. On the other hand, the likelihood of the occurrence of moderate to heavy rainfall is an order of magnitude higher in observations (0.12-0.2) than that in the model (model compensates for the lack of heavy precipitation through raining more frequently within the light rain category, which leads to an annual rainfall amount close to what is observed. CAM captures the qualitative change of rain rate PDF from a "dry" oceanic to a "wet" oceanic region, but it fails to simulate the change of precipitation characteristics from an oceanic region to a land region where thunderstorm rainfall dominates.

The precipitation behavior of superalloy ATI Allvac 718Plus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zickler, Gerald A.; Schnitzer, Ronald; Leitner, Harald [Department of Physical Metallurgy and Materials Testing, Christian Doppler Laboratory Early Stages of Precipitation, Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria); Radis, Rene [Christian Doppler Laboratory Early Stages of Precipitation, Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology (Austria); Institute for Materials Science and Welding, Graz University of Technology (Austria); Kozeschnik, Ernst [Christian Doppler Laboratory Early Stages of Precipitation, Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology (Austria); Stockinger, Martin [Boehler Schmiedetechnik GmbH and Co. KG., Kapfenberg (Austria)

2010-03-15

ATI Allvac 718Plus is a novel nickel-based superalloy, which was designed for heavy-duty applications in aerospace gas turbines. The precipitation kinetics of the intermetallic {delta} (Ni{sub 3}Nb) and {gamma}' (Ni{sub 3}(Al,Ti)) phases in this alloy are of scientific as well as technological interest because of their significant influence on the mechanical properties. Important parameters like grain size are controlled by coarse {delta} precipitates located at grain boundaries, whereas small {gamma}' precipitates are responsible for strengthening by precipitation hardening. In the present study, the microstructure is investigated by three-dimensional atom probe tomography and simulated by computer modeling using the thermo-kinetic software MatCalc. The results of numerical simulations and experimental data are compared and critically discussed. It is shown that the chemical compositions of the phases change during isothermal aging, and the precipitation kinetics of {delta} and {gamma}' phases interact with each other as shown in a time temperature precipitation (TTP) plot. The TTP plot shows C-shaped curves with characteristic discontinuities in the temperature range, where simultaneous and concurrent precipitation of the {delta} and {gamma}' phases occurs. This leads to a competition in the diffusion of Nb and Al, which are partly present in both phases. Thus, the present study gives important information on heat treatments for ATI Allvac 718Plus in order to achieve the desired microstructure and mechanical properties. (Abstract Copyright [2010], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Seasonal variation of heavy metals in ambient air and precipitation at a single site in Washington, DC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melaku, Samuel; Morris, Vernon; Raghavan, Dharmaraj; Hosten, Charles

2008-01-01

Atmospheric samples of precipitation and ambient air were collected at a single site in Washington, DC, for 7 months (for ambient air samples) and 1 year (for wet deposition samples) and analyzed for arsenic, cadmium, chromium and lead. The ranges of heavy metal concentrations for 6-day wet deposition samples collected over the 1-year period were 0.20-1.3 μg/l, 0.060-5.1 μg/l, 0.062-4.6 μg/l and 0.11-3.2 μg/l for arsenic, cadmium, chromium and lead, respectively, with a precision better than 5% for more than 95% of the measurements. The ranges of heavy metal concentrations for the 6-day ambient air samples were 0.800-15.7 ng/m 3 , 1.50-30.0 ng/m 3 , 16.8-112 ng/m 3 , and 2.90-137 ng/m 3 for arsenic, cadmium, chromium and lead, respectively, with a precision better than 10%. The spread in the heavy metal concentration over the observation period suggests a high seasonal variability for heavy metal content in both ambient air and wet deposition samples. - High seasonal variability of heavy metals were observed in both ambient air and wet deposition samples

Multisite stochastic simulation of daily precipitation from copula modeling with a gamma marginal distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Taesam

2018-05-01

Multisite stochastic simulations of daily precipitation have been widely employed in hydrologic analyses for climate change assessment and agricultural model inputs. Recently, a copula model with a gamma marginal distribution has become one of the common approaches for simulating precipitation at multiple sites. Here, we tested the correlation structure of the copula modeling. The results indicate that there is a significant underestimation of the correlation in the simulated data compared to the observed data. Therefore, we proposed an indirect method for estimating the cross-correlations when simulating precipitation at multiple stations. We used the full relationship between the correlation of the observed data and the normally transformed data. Although this indirect method offers certain improvements in preserving the cross-correlations between sites in the original domain, the method was not reliable in application. Therefore, we further improved a simulation-based method (SBM) that was developed to model the multisite precipitation occurrence. The SBM preserved well the cross-correlations of the original domain. The SBM method provides around 0.2 better cross-correlation than the direct method and around 0.1 degree better than the indirect method. The three models were applied to the stations in the Nakdong River basin, and the SBM was the best alternative for reproducing the historical cross-correlation. The direct method significantly underestimates the correlations among the observed data, and the indirect method appeared to be unreliable.

Evaluating 20th Century precipitation characteristics between multi-scale atmospheric models with different land-atmosphere coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, M.; Denning, A. S.; Randall, D. A.; Branson, M.

2016-12-01

Multi-scale models of the atmosphere provide an opportunity to investigate processes that are unresolved by traditional Global Climate Models while at the same time remaining viable in terms of computational resources for climate-length time scales. The MMF represents a shift away from large horizontal grid spacing in traditional GCMs that leads to overabundant light precipitation and lack of heavy events, toward a model where precipitation intensity is allowed to vary over a much wider range of values. Resolving atmospheric motions on the scale of 4 km makes it possible to recover features of precipitation, such as intense downpours, that were previously only obtained by computationally expensive regional simulations. These heavy precipitation events may have little impact on large-scale moisture and energy budgets, but are outstanding in terms of interaction with the land surface and potential impact on human life. Three versions of the Community Earth System Model were used in this study; the standard CESM, the multi-scale `Super-Parameterized' CESM where large-scale parameterizations have been replaced with a 2D cloud-permitting model, and a multi-instance land version of the SP-CESM where each column of the 2D CRM is allowed to interact with an individual land unit. These simulations were carried out using prescribed Sea Surface Temperatures for the period from 1979-2006 with daily precipitation saved for all 28 years. Comparisons of the statistical properties of precipitation between model architectures and against observations from rain gauges were made, with specific focus on detection and evaluation of extreme precipitation events.

Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in a North American scale convection-permitting model

Science.gov (United States)

Scaff, L.; Li, Y.; Prein, A. F.; Liu, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.

2017-12-01

A better representation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation is essential for the analysis of the energy balance and the water budget components such as runoff, evaporation and infiltration. Convection-permitting regional climate modeling (CPM) has been shown to improve the models' performance of summer precipitation, allowing to: (1) simulate the mesoscale processes in more detail and (2) to provide more insights in future changes in convective precipitation under climate change. In this work we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) in simulating the summer precipitation diurnal cycle over most of North America. We use 4 km horizontal grid spacing in a 13-years long current and future period. The future scenario is assuming no significant changes in large-scale weather patterns and aims to answer how the weather of the current climate would change if it would reoccur at the end of the century under a high-end emission scenario (Pseudo Global Warming). We emphasize on a region centered on the lee side of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, where the summer precipitation amount shows a regional maximum. The historical simulations are capable to correctly represent the diurnal cycle. At the lee-side of the Canadian Rockies the increase in the convective available potential energy as well as pronounced low-level moisture flux from the southeast Prairies explains the local maximum in summer precipitation. The PGW scenario shows an increase in summer precipitation amount and intensity in this region, consistently with a stronger source of moisture and convective energy.

Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Abbasian, Mohammadsadegh; Moghim, Sanaz; Abrishamchi, Ahmad

2018-03-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901-2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria.

Validation of precipitation over Japan during 1985-2004 simulated by three regional climate models and two multi-model ensemble means

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishizaki, Yasuhiro [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Takayabu, Izuru [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

2012-07-15

We dynamically downscaled Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-25) for 60 regions of Japan using three regional climate models (RCMs): the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM), modified RAMS version 4.3 (NRAMS), and modified Weather Research and Forecasting model (TWRF). We validated their simulations of the precipitation climatology and interannual variations of summer and winter precipitation. We also validated precipitation for two multi-model ensemble means: the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and an ensemble mean weighted according to model reliability. In the 60 regions NRAMS simulated both the winter and summer climatological precipitation better than JRA-25, and NHRCM simulated the wintertime precipitation better than JRA-25. TWRF, however, overestimated precipitation in the 60 regions in both the winter and summer, and NHRCM overestimated precipitation in the summer. The three RCMs simulated interannual variations, particularly summer precipitation, better than JRA-25. AEM simulated both climatological precipitation and interannual variations during the two seasons more realistically than JRA-25 and the three RCMs overall, but the best RCM was often superior to the AEM result. In contrast, the weighted ensemble mean skills were usually superior to those of the best RCM. Thus, both RCMs and multi-model ensemble means, especially multi-model ensemble means weighted according to model reliability, are powerful tools for simulating seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation in Japan under the current climate. (orig.)

The response of a simulated mesoscale convective system to increased aerosol pollution: Part I: Precipitation intensity, distribution, and efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Clavner, Michal; Cotton, William R.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Pierce, Jeffery R.

2018-01-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are important contributors to rainfall in the High Plains of the United States and elsewhere in the world. It is therefore of interest to understand how different aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) may impact the total amount, rates and spatial distribution of precipitation produced by MCSs. In this study, different aerosol concentrations and their effects on precipitation produced by an MCS are examined by simulating the 8 May 2009 "Super-Derecho" MCS using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with sophisticated aerosol and microphysical parameterizations. Three simulations were conducted that differed only in the initial concentration, spatial distribution, and chemical composition of aerosols. Aerosol fields were derived from the output of GEOS-Chem, a 3D chemical transport numerical model. Results from the RAMS simulations show that the total domain precipitation was not significantly affected by variations in aerosol concentrations, however, the pollution aerosols altered the precipitation characteristics. The more polluted simulations exhibited higher precipitation rates, higher bulk precipitation efficiency, a larger area with heavier precipitation, and a smaller area with lighter precipitation. These differences arose as a result of aerosols enhancing precipitation in the convective region of the MCS while suppressing precipitation from the MCS's stratiform-anvil. In the convective region, several processes likely contributed to an increase of precipitation. First, owing to the very humid environment of this storm, the enhanced amount of cloud water available to be collected overwhelmed the reduction in precipitation efficiency associated with the aerosol-induced production of smaller droplets which led to a net increase in the conversion of cloud droplets to precipitation. Second, higher aerosol concentrations led to invigoration of convective updrafts which

Heavy Precipitation impacts and emergency planning - developing applicable strategies for a metropolitan area

Science.gov (United States)

Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

2016-04-01

Heavy rainfall in central Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change, which occurs with large seasonal and regional differences in its magnitude. The extent of loss depends on natural parameters (e.g. topography and vegetation) as well as on socio-economic factors like urbanized and industrialized areas and population density. Dangerous cascade effects appear, if critical infrastructure like the electrical power supply is affected. In some cases mudflows and flash floods cause inundated or undercut roads and cause a high demand for fast and effective assistance of the authorities. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Commonly this responsibility is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units of the community or district. After heavy rainfall in an urban area, numerous incidents and emergency calls appearing at a time are overstressing the human and technical resources of the fire brigades within the local authority frequently. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades shall be developed for the Rhine-Main-Area in order to identify particular affected spots of heavy rain and bundle resources of the fire brigades. It is to be found out if the study area contains regions with a particularly high exposure to heavy rain and high application numbers of the fire department and whether there is a relationship of rainfall and frequency of use. To evaluate particular local effects on the fire brigades capability, a brief analysis of the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) as well as the evaluation of the incident data of the affected fire brigades, is used to frame a realistic approach. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain

Seasonality of mean and heavy precipitation in the area of the Vosges Mountains: dependence on the selection criterion

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Minářová, J.; Müller, Miloslav; Clappier, A.

2017-01-01

Roč. 37, č. 5 (2017), s. 2654-2666 ISSN 0899-8418 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : climate extremes * model * variability * events * statistics * weather * cops * Vosges Mountains * seasonality * annual course * extreme * heavy rainfall * precipitation * POT * GEV Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4871/abstract

Rainfall estimation in SWAT: An alternative method to simulate orographic precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Galván, L.; Olías, M.; Izquierdo, T.; Cerón, J. C.; Fernández de Villarán, R.

2014-02-01

The input of water from precipitation is one of the most important aspects of a hydrologic model because it controls the basin's water budget. The model should reproduce the amount and distribution of rainfall in the basin, spatially and temporally. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is one of the most widely used hydrologic models. In this paper the rainfall estimation in SWAT is revised, focusing on the treatment of orographic precipitation. SWAT was applied to the Odiel river basin (SW Spain), with a surface of 2300 km2. Results show that SWAT does not reflect reallisticaly the spatial distribution of rainfall in the basin. In relation to orographic precipitation, SWAT estimates the daily precipitation in elevation bands by adding a constant amount to the recorded precipitation in the rain gauge, which depends on the increase in precipitation with altitude and the difference between the mean elevation of each band and the elevation of the recording gauge. This does not reflect rainfall in the subbasin because the increase in precipitation with altitude actually it is not constant, but depends on the amount of rainfall. An alternative methodology to represent the temporal distribution of orographic precipitation is proposed. After simulation, the deviation of runoff volume using the SWAT elevation bands was appreciably higher than that obtained with the proposed methodology.

Forecasting gastrointestinal precipitation and oral pharmacokinetics of dantrolene in dogs using an in vitro precipitation testing coupled with in silico modeling and simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kambayashi, Atsushi; Dressman, Jennifer B

2017-10-01

The aim of the current research was to determine the precipitation kinetics of dantrolene sodium using canine biorelevant in vitro testing and to model the precipitation kinetics by appropriately coupling the data with an in silico tool adapted for dogs. The precipitation profiles of dantrolene sodium solutions were obtained with the in vitro paddle apparatus at a revolution rate of 50rpm. The in silico prediction tool was designed using STELLA software and the predicted plasma concentration profiles of dantrolene using the in vitro precipitation data were compared with the observed in vivo pharmacokinetics in beagle dogs. The plasma profiles of dantrolene, which served as a model weakly acidic drug which precipitates in the upper gastrointestinal tract, was successfully predicted using the in vitro precipitation testing coupled with the in silico modeling and simulation approach. The approach was subsequently used to forecast the effect of pharmaceutical excipients (HPMC/PG) on the ability of the drug to supersaturate in the gut and the resulting pharmacokinetics. The agreement of the simulated pharmacokinetics with the observed values confirms the ability of canine biorelevant media to predict oral performance of enhanced dosage forms in dogs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulations of Precipitation Variability over the Upper Rio Grande Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costigan, Keeley R.; Bossert, James E.; Langley, David L.

1997-10-01

In this research, we study Albuquerque's water and how it may be affected by changes in the regional climate, as manifested by variations in Rio Grande water levels. To do this, we rely on the use of coupled atmospheric, runoff, and ground water models. Preliminary work on the project has focused on uncoupled simulations of the aquifer beneath Albuquerque and winter precipitation simulations of the upper Rio Grande Basin. The latter is discussed in this paper

Dynamic simulation of collisions of heavy high-speed trucks with concrete barriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, Yoshito; Liu, Chunlu; Kusama, Ryuichi

2007-01-01

Real vehicle collision experiments on full-scale road safety barriers are important to determine the outcome of a vehicle versus barrier impact accident. However, such experiments require large investment of time and money. Numerical simulation has therefore been imperative as an alternative method for testing concrete barriers. In this research, spring subgrade models were first developed to simulate the ground boundary of concrete barriers. Both heavy trucks and concrete barriers were modeled using finite element methods (FEM) to simulate dynamic collision performances. Comparison of the results generated from computer simulations and on-site full-scale experiments demonstrated that the developed models could be applied to simulate the collision of heavy trucks with concrete barriers to provide the data to design new road safety barriers and analyze existing ones

Trends in total and daily precipitation indices in japan from 1901 to 2000

OpenAIRE

Nagata, Rena; Zaiki, Masumi

2008-01-01

Long-term trends in seasonal precipitation amount and daily precipitation indices were investigated for spring, summer, autumn, and winter with a daily precipitation dataset for Japan from 1901 to 2000. Heavy precipitation in spring and summer has significantly increased along the west coast of Japan. Such changes in precipitation have resulted in the increased heavy precipitation intensity. For autumn and winter, total precipitation significantly decreased in the Kanto district and central J...

Experimental and numerical simulation of dissolution and precipitation: implications for fracture sealing at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

Dobson, Patrick F.; Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Sonnenthal, Eric L.; Spycher, Nicolas; Apps, John A.

2003-05-01

Plugging of flow paths caused by mineral precipitation in fractures above the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada could reduce the probability of water seeping into the repository. As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) effects on flow in fractured media, we performed a laboratory experiment and numerical simulations to investigate mineral dissolution and precipitation under anticipated temperature and pressure conditions in the repository. To replicate mineral dissolution by vapor condensate in fractured tuff, water was flowed through crushed Yucca Mountain tuff at 94 °C. The resulting steady-state fluid composition had a total dissolved solids content of about 140 mg/l; silica was the dominant dissolved constituent. A portion of the steady-state mineralized water was flowed into a vertically oriented planar fracture in a block of welded Topopah Spring Tuff that was maintained at 80 °C at the top and 130 °C at the bottom. The fracture began to seal with amorphous silica within 5 days. A 1-D plug-flow numerical model was used to simulate mineral dissolution, and a similar model was developed to simulate the flow of mineralized water through a planar fracture, where boiling conditions led to mineral precipitation. Predicted concentrations of the major dissolved constituents for the tuff dissolution were within a factor of 2 of the measured average steady-state compositions. The mineral precipitation simulations predicted the precipitation of amorphous silica at the base of the boiling front, leading to a greater than 50-fold decrease in fracture permeability in 5 days, consistent with the laboratory experiment. These results help validate the use of a numerical model to simulate THC processes at Yucca Mountain. The experiment and simulations indicated that boiling and concomitant precipitation of amorphous silica could cause significant reductions in fracture porosity and permeability on a local scale. However

Heterogeneous precipitation of niobium carbide in the ferrite by Monte Carlo simulations; Cinetique de precipitation heterogene du carbure de niobium dans la ferrite

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hin, C

2005-12-15

The precipitation of niobium carbides in industrial steels is commonly used to control the recrystallization process or the amount of interstitial atoms in solid solution. It is then important to understand the precipitation kinetics and especially the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous precipitation, since both of them have been observed experimentally, depending on they alloy composition, microstructure and thermal treatments. We propose Monte Carlo simulations of NbC precipitation in {open_square}-iron, based on a simple atomic description of the main parameters which control the kinetic pathway: - Realistic diffusion properties, with a rapid diffusion of C atoms by interstitial jumps and a slower diffusion of Fe and Nb atoms by vacancy jumps; - A model of grain boundaries which reproduces the segregation properties of Nb and C; - A model of dislocation which interacts with solute atoms through local segregation energies and long range elastic field; - A point defect source which drives the vacancy concentration towards its equilibrium value. Depending on the precipitation conditions, Monte Carlo simulations predict different kinetic behaviors, including a transient precipitation of metastable carbides, an early segregation stage of C, wetting phenomena at grain boundaries and on dislocations and a competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous NbC precipitation. Concerning the last point, we highlight that long range elastic field due to dislocation favors clearly the heterogeneous precipitation on dislocations. To understand this effect, we have developed a heterogeneous nucleation model including the calculation of the local concentration of solute atoms around the dislocation, the change of the solubility limit relative to the solubility limit in bulk and the energy of precipitates in an elastic field. We have concluded that elastic field favors the heterogeneous precipitation through the fall in nucleation barrier. (author)

Long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over the Pearl River Delta megacity area in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Wang

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Seven-year measurements of precipitation, lightning flashes, and visibility from 2000 to 2006 have been analyzed in the Pearl River Delta (PRD region, China, with a focus on the Guangzhou megacity area. Statistical analysis shows that the occurrence of heavy rainfall (>25 mm per day and frequency of lightning strikes are reversely correlated to visibility during this period. To elucidate the effects of aerosols on cloud processes, precipitation, and lightning activity, a cloud resolving – Weather Research and Forecasting (CR-WRF model with a two-moment bulk microphysical scheme is employed to simulate a mesoscale convective system occurring on 28 Match 2009 in the Guangzhou megacity area. The model predicted evolutions of composite radar reflectivity and accumulated precipitation are in agreement with measurements from S-band weather radars and automatic gauge stations. The calculated lightning potential index (LPI exhibits temporal and spatial consistence with lightning flashes recorded by a local lightning detection network. Sensitivity experiments have been performed to reflect aerosol conditions representative of polluted and clean cases. The simulations suggest that precipitation and LPI are enhanced by about 16% and 50%, respectively, under the polluted aerosol condition. Our results suggest that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation (less than 25 mm per day, but enhances heavy precipitation. The responses of hydrometeors and latent heat release to different aerosol loadings reveal the physical mechanism for the precipitation and lightning enhancement in the Guangzhou megacity area, showing more efficient mixed phase processes and intensified convection under the polluted aerosol condition.

Impact of precipitation and land biophysical variables on the simulated discharge of European and Mediterranean rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Szczypta, C.; Decharme, B.; Carrer, D.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Somot, S.; Faroux, S.; Martin, E.

2012-09-01

This study investigates the impact on river discharge simulations of errors in the precipitation forcing, together with changes in the representation of vegetation variables and of plant transpiration. The most recent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used to drive the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-TRIP) continental hydrological system over Europe and the Mediterranean basin over the 1991-2008 period. As ERA-Interim tends to underestimate precipitation, a number of precipitation corrections are proposed. In particular, the monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation product is used to bias-correct the 3-hourly ERA-Interim estimates. This correction markedly improves the match between the ISBA-TRIP simulations and the river discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), at 150 gauging stations. The impact on TRIP river discharge simulations of various representations of the evapotranspiration in the ISBA land surface model is investigated as well: ISBA is used together with its upgraded carbon flux version (ISBA-A-gs). The latter is either driven by the satellite-derived climatology of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used by ISBA, or performs prognostic LAI simulations. The ISBA-A-gs model, with or without dynamically simulated LAI, allows a better representation of river discharge at low water levels. On the other hand, ISBA-A-gs does not perform as well as the original ISBA model at springtime.

Precipitation and total power consumption in the ionosphere: Global MHD simulation results compared with Polar and SNOE observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Palmroth

2006-05-01

Full Text Available We compare the ionospheric electron precipitation morphology and power from a global MHD simulation (GUMICS-4 with direct measurements of auroral energy flux during a pair of substorms on 28-29 March 1998. The electron precipitation power is computed directly from global images of auroral light observed by the Polar satellite ultraviolet imager (UVI. Independent of the Polar UVI measurements, the electron precipitation energy is determined from SNOE satellite observations on the thermospheric nitric oxide (NO density. We find that the GUMICS-4 simulation reproduces the spatial variation of the global aurora rather reliably in the sense that the onset of the substorm is shown in GUMICS-4 simulation as enhanced precipitation in the right location at the right time. The total integrated precipitation power in the GUMICS-4 simulation is in quantitative agreement with the observations during quiet times, i.e., before the two substorm intensifications. We find that during active times the GUMICS-4 integrated precipitation is a factor of 5 lower than the observations indicate. However, we also find factor of 2-3 differences in the precipitation power among the three different UVI processing methods tested here. The findings of this paper are used to complete an earlier objective, in which the total ionospheric power deposition in the simulation is forecasted from a mathematical expression, which is a function of solar wind density, velocity and magnetic field. We find that during this event, the correlation coefficient between the outcome of the forecasting expression and the simulation results is 0.83. During the event, the simulation result on the total ionospheric power deposition agrees with observations (correlation coefficient 0.8 and the AE index (0.85.

Simulating electron clouds in heavy-ion accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, R.H.; Friedman, A.; Covo, M. Kireeff; Lund, S.M.; Molvik, A.W.; Bieniosek, F.M.; Seidl, P.A.; Vay, J.-L.; Stoltz, P.; Veitzer, S.

2005-01-01

Contaminating clouds of electrons are a concern for most accelerators of positively charged particles, but there are some unique aspects of heavy-ion accelerators for fusion and high-energy density physics which make modeling such clouds especially challenging. In particular, self-consistent electron and ion simulation is required, including a particle advance scheme which can follow electrons in regions where electrons are strongly magnetized, weakly magnetized, and unmagnetized. The approach to such self-consistency is described, and in particular a scheme for interpolating between full-orbit (Boris) and drift-kinetic particle pushes that enables electron time steps long compared to the typical gyroperiod in the magnets. Tests and applications are presented: simulation of electron clouds produced by three different kinds of sources indicates the sensitivity of the cloud shape to the nature of the source; first-of-a-kind self-consistent simulation of electron-cloud experiments on the high-current experiment [L. R. Prost, P. A. Seidl, F. M. Bieniosek, C. M. Celata, A. Faltens, D. Baca, E. Henestroza, J. W. Kwan, M. Leitner, W. L. Waldron, R. Cohen, A. Friedman, D. Grote, S. M. Lund, A. W. Molvik, and E. Morse, 'High current transport experiment for heavy ion inertial fusion', Physical Review Special Topics, Accelerators and Beams 8, 020101 (2005)], at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in which the machine can be flooded with electrons released by impact of the ion beam on an end plate, demonstrate the ability to reproduce key features of the ion-beam phase space; and simulation of a two-stream instability of thin beams in a magnetic field demonstrates the ability of the large-time-step mover to accurately calculate the instability

Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong;

Accelerated pavement testing efforts using the heavy vehicle simulator

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Du Plessis, Louw

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a brief description of the technological developments involved in the development and use of the Heavy Vehicle Simulator (HVS) accelerated pavement testing equipment. This covers the period from concept in the late 1960’s...

Evaluating IPCC AR4 cool-season precipitation simulations and projections for impacts assessment over North America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McAfee, Stephanie A. [The University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ (United States); The Wilderness Society, Anchorage, AK (United States); Russell, Joellen L.; Goodman, Paul J. [The University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ (United States)

2011-12-15

General circulation models (GCMs) have demonstrated success in simulating global climate, and they are critical tools for producing regional climate projections consistent with global changes in radiative forcing. GCM output is currently being used in a variety of ways for regional impacts projection. However, more work is required to assess model bias and evaluate whether assumptions about the independence of model projections and error are valid. This is particularly important where models do not display offsetting errors. Comparing simulated 300-hPa zonal winds and precipitation for the late 20th century with reanalysis and gridded precipitation data shows statistically significant and physically plausible associations between positive precipitation biases across all models and a marked increase in zonal wind speed around 30 N, as well as distortions in rain shadow patterns. Over the western United States, GCMs project drier conditions to the south and increasing precipitation to the north. There is a high degree of agreement between models, and many studies have made strong statements about implications for water resources and about ecosystem change on that basis. However, since one of the mechanisms driving changes in winter precipitation patterns appears to be associated with a source of error in simulating mean precipitation in the present, it suggests that greater caution should be used in interpreting impacts related to precipitation projections in this region and that standard assumptions underlying bias correction methods should be scrutinized. (orig.)

Neptunium sorption and co-precipitation of strontium in simulated DWPF salt solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McIntyre, P.F.; Orebaugh, E.G.; King, C.M.

1988-01-01

Batch experiments performed using crushed slag saltstone (∼40 mesh) removed >80% of 237 Np from simulated Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) salt solution. The concentration of 237 Np (110 pCi/ml) used was 1000x greater than levels in actual DWPF solutions. Neptunium-239 was used as a tracer and was formed by neutron activation of uranyl nitrate. Results showed that small amounts of crushed saltstone (as little as 0.05 grams), removed >80% of neptunium from 15 ml of simulated DWPF solution after several hours equilibration. The neptunium is sorbed on insoluble carbonates formed in and on the saltstone matrix. Further testing showed that addition of 0.01 and 0.10 ml of 1 molar Ca +2 (ie. Ca (NO 3 ) 2 , CaCl 2 ) into 15 ml of simulated DWPF solution yielded a white carbonate precipitate which also removed >80% of the neptunium after 1 hour equilibration. Further experiments were performed to determine the effectiveness of this procedure to co-precipitate strontium

Heavy vehicle simulator testing of trial sections for CALTRANS.

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rust, FC

1993-10-01

Full Text Available ) commissioned the University of California at Berkely (UCB), Dynatest Consulting and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa to conduct a pilot study to evaluate the potential of the South African Heavy Vehicle Simulator (HVS...

Hybrid and electric advanced vehicle systems (heavy) simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, R. A.; Mcgehee, R. K.

1981-01-01

A computer program to simulate hybrid and electric advanced vehicle systems (HEAVY) is described. It is intended for use early in the design process: concept evaluation, alternative comparison, preliminary design, control and management strategy development, component sizing, and sensitivity studies. It allows the designer to quickly, conveniently, and economically predict the performance of a proposed drive train. The user defines the system to be simulated using a library of predefined component models that may be connected to represent a wide variety of propulsion systems. The development of three models are discussed as examples.

Numerical simulation of pore size dependent anhydrite precipitation in geothermal reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Mürmann, Mario; Kühn, Michael; Pape, Hansgeorg; Clauser, Christoph

2013-04-01

Porosity and permeability of reservoirs are key parameters for an economical use of hot water from geothermal installations and can be significantly reduced by precipitation of minerals, such as anhydrite. The borehole Allermöhe 1 near Hamburg (Germany) represents a failed attempt of geothermal heat mining due to anhydrite precipitation (Baermann et al. 2000). For a risk assessment of future boreholes it is essential to understand how and when anhydrite cementation occurred under reservoir conditions. From core samples of the Allermöhe borehole it was determined that anhydrite precipitation took place in regions of relatively high porosity while regions of low porosity remained uncemented (Wagner et al. 2005). These findings correspond to the fact that e.g. halite precipitation in porous media is found only in relatively large pores (Putnis and Mauthe 2001). This study and others underline that pore size controls crystallization and that it is therefore necessary to establish a relation between pore size and nucleation. The work presented here is based on investigations of Emmanuel and Berkowitz (2007) who present such a relation by applying a thermodynamic approach. However this approach cannot explain the heterogeneous precipitation observed in the Allermöhe core samples. We chose an advanced approach by considering electric system properties resulting in another relation between pore size and crystallization. It is well known that a high fluid supersaturation can be maintained in porous rocks (Putnis and Mauthe 2001). This clearly indicates that a supersaturation threshold exists exceeding thermodynamic equilibrium considerably. In order to quantify spatially heterogeneous anhydrite cementation a theoretical approach was chosen which considered the electric interaction between surface charges of the matrix and calcium and sulphate ions in the fluid. This approach was implemented into the numerical code SHEMAT (Clauser 2003) and used to simulate anhydrite

Assessing the applicability of WRF optimal parameters under the different precipitation simulations in the Greater Beijing Area

Science.gov (United States)

Di, Zhenhua; Duan, Qingyun; Wang, Chen; Ye, Aizhong; Miao, Chiyuan; Gong, Wei

2018-03-01

Forecasting skills of the complex weather and climate models have been improved by tuning the sensitive parameters that exert the greatest impact on simulated results based on more effective optimization methods. However, whether the optimal parameter values are still work when the model simulation conditions vary, which is a scientific problem deserving of study. In this study, a highly-effective optimization method, adaptive surrogate model-based optimization (ASMO), was firstly used to tune nine sensitive parameters from four physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to obtain better summer precipitation forecasting over the Greater Beijing Area in China. Then, to assess the applicability of the optimal parameter values, simulation results from the WRF model with default and optimal parameter values were compared across precipitation events, boundary conditions, spatial scales, and physical processes in the Greater Beijing Area. The summer precipitation events from 6 years were used to calibrate and evaluate the optimal parameter values of WRF model. Three boundary data and two spatial resolutions were adopted to evaluate the superiority of the calibrated optimal parameters to default parameters under the WRF simulations with different boundary conditions and spatial resolutions, respectively. Physical interpretations of the optimal parameters indicating how to improve precipitation simulation results were also examined. All the results showed that the optimal parameters obtained by ASMO are superior to the default parameters for WRF simulations for predicting summer precipitation in the Greater Beijing Area because the optimal parameters are not constrained by specific precipitation events, boundary conditions, and spatial resolutions. The optimal values of the nine parameters were determined from 127 parameter samples using the ASMO method, which showed that the ASMO method is very highly-efficient for optimizing WRF

Heavy precipitation and the responses within emergency management - a new approach for emergency planning and disaster prevention by utilizing fire brigade operation data

Science.gov (United States)

Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

An increase of intense rainfall events in the center regions of Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change. Climate scenarios indicate also large seasonal and regional differences concerning the magnitude. Structural damages and financial loss resulting from heavy precipitation depend on natural parameters such as topography and vegetation cover of the specific area, but also on socio-economic parameters such as urbanized and industrialized areas, population density and the presence of critical infrastructure. In particular mudflows and floods cause damages such as flooded basements and streets, undercutting of roads or spilled sewage drains. The emergency management has to consider these effects appropriately. Commonly, this is the responsibilities is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units. Within their daily routines, numerous data is collected, but commonly not utilized for scientific purposes. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain area. One application is described in this study based on a example in Offenbach, Germany. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Therefore it is not easy to collect the overall incident data for a widespread affected area. To examine particular local effects of heavy precipitation events it is necessary to match the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) with the incident data of all effected fire brigades, which sometimes is impeded by the usual resolution of meteorological data. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades has been developed for the Rhine-Main-Area. This area is one of the largest metropolitan regions in Germany with a very high density in population as well as

CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

2016-05-01

Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The

Atmospheric heavy metal deposition in the Copenhagen area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andersen, A; Hovmand, M F; Johnsen, I

1978-10-01

Transport of heavy metals from the atmosphere to the soil and vegetation takes place by dust fall, bulk precipitation, and gas/aerosol adsorption processes. Atmospheric dry and wet deposition of the heavy metals lead, zinc, nickel, vanadium, iron, and copper over the Copenhagen area was measured by sampling in plastic funnels from 17 stations throughout the area for 12 months. Epigeic bryophytes, epiphytic lichen, and topsoil samples were analyzed. A linear correlation between bulk precipitation and heavy metal concentration in lichens and bryophytes was found. An exponential correlation between bulk precipitation and heavy metal concentration in soil was noted. Regional variation of the heavy metal levels in the Copenhagen area was described, and three sub-areas with high metal burdens were distinguished. (10 diagrams, 8 graphs, 13 references, 2 tables)

Improving precipitation simulation from updated surface characteristics in South America

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Gabriel; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Moraes, Elisabete Caria; Chiquetto, Júlio Barboza; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle

2017-07-01

Land use and land cover maps and their physical-chemical and biological properties are important variables in the numerical modeling of Earth systems. In this context, the main objective of this study is to analyze the improvements resulting from the land use and land cover map update in numerical simulations performed using the Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4), as well as the seasonal variations of physical parameters used by the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). In general, the update of the South America 2007 land use and land cover map, used by the BATS, improved the simulation of precipitation by 10 %, increasing the mean temporal correlation coefficient, compared to observed data, from 0.84 to 0.92 (significant at p Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) positioning, presenting a spatial pattern of alternated areas with higher and lower precipitation rates. These important differences occur due to the replacement of tropical rainforest for pasture and agriculture and the replacement of agricultural areas for pasture, scrubland, and deciduous forest.

Heavy-Ion Collimation at the Large Hadron Collider Simulations and Measurements

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(CDS)2083002; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Bruce, Roderik; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Bruce, Roderik

The CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) stores and collides proton and $^{208}$Pb$^{82+}$ beams of unprecedented energy and intensity. Thousands of superconducting magnets, operated at 1.9 K, guide the very intense and energetic particle beams, which have a large potential for destruction. This implies the demand for a multi-stage collimation system to provide protection from beam-induced quenches or even hardware damage. In heavy-ion operation, ion fragments with significant rigidity offsets can still scatter out of the collimation system. When they irradiate the superconducting LHC magnets, the latter risk to quench (lose their superconducting property). These secondary collimation losses can potentially impose a limitation for the stored heavy-ion beam energy. Therefore, their distribution in the LHC needs to be understood by sophisticated simulations. Such simulation tools must accurately simulate the particle motion of many different nuclides in the magnetic LHC lattice and simulate their interaction with t...

Preparation and Heat-Treatment of DWPF Simulants With and Without Co-Precipitated Noble Metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koopman, David C.:Eibling, Russel E

2005-01-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory is in the process of investigating factors suspected of impacting catalytic hydrogen generation in the Chemical Process Cell of the Defense Waste Processing Facility, DWPF. Noble metal catalyzed hydrogen generation in simulation work constrains the allowable acid addition operating window in DWPF. This constraint potentially impacts washing strategies during sludge batch preparation. It can also influence decisions related to the addition of secondary waste streams to a sludge batch. Noble metals have historically been added as trim chemicals to process simulations. The present study investigated the potential conservatism that might be present from adding the catalytic species as trim chemicals to the final sludge simulant versus co-precipitating the noble metals into the insoluble sludge solids matrix. Parallel preparations of two sludge simulants targeting the composition of Sludge Batch 3 were performed in order to evaluate the impact of the form of noble metals. Identical steps were used except that one simulant had dissolved palladium, rhodium, and ruthenium present during the precipitation of the insoluble solids. Noble metals were trimmed into the other stimulant prior to process tests. Portions of both sludge simulants were held at 97 C for about eight hours to qualitatively simulate the effects of long term storage on particle morphology and speciation. The simulants were used as feeds for Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank, SRAT, process simulations. The following conclusions were drawn from the simulant preparation work: (1) The first preparation of a waste slurry simulant with co-precipitated noble metals was successful, based on the data obtained. It appears that 99+% of the noble metals were retained in the simulant. (2) Better control of carbonate, hydroxide, and post-wash trim chemical additions is needed before the new method of simulant preparation will be as reproducible as the old method. (3) The two new

Simulation of electron cloud effects to heavy ion beams

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yaman, Fatih; Gjonaj, Erion; Weiland, Thomas [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Theorie Elektromagnetischer Felder

2011-07-01

Electron cloud (EC) driven instability can cause beam loss, emittance growth, trajectory change and wake fields. Mentioned crucial effects of EC motivated researchers to understand the EC build up mechanism and the effects of EC to the beam. This motivation also induced the progress of developing new simulation codes. EC simulations can roughly be divided into two classes such as, softwares whose goals are to simulate the build up of the EC during the passage of a bunch train and the codes which model the interaction of a bunch with an EC. The aim of this study is to simulate the effects of electron cloud (EC) on the dynamics of heavy ion beams which are used in heavy ion synchrotron (SIS-18) at GSI. To do this, a 3-D and self-consistent simulation program based on particle in cell (PIC) method is used. In the PIC cycle, accurate solution of the Maxwell equations is obtained by employing discontinuous Galerkin finite element method. As a model, we assumed a perfectly conducting beam pipe which was uniformly (or randomly) loaded with the electrons. Then as parallel with the realistic cases in SIS-18, a single bunch consisting of U{sup +73} ions was extracted which could propagate in this pipe. Due to EC-ion bunch interaction, electrons gained energy and their displacements were observed. Electric and magnetic field components and EC charge density were calculated, numerically.

Modelling and dynamic simulation of struvite precipitation from source-separated urine.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Philip A; Wallace, James W; Tickle, Julian C

2013-01-01

A model of a mixed-mode nutrient recovery reactor is developed for a urine feed, incorporating complex solution thermodynamics, dynamic conservation relations and a power-law kinetic expression for crystal growth from seed crystals. Simulations at nominal operating conditions predict phosphorus recoveries greater than 99%, based on existing process kinetic parameters and operating conditions employed in previously published studies. The overall rate of nutrient recovery depends on the saturation index of the precipitating solid, the available surface area for mass transfer and the feed rate of the limiting constituent ion. Under the conditions considered, the nutrient feed rate appears to be the limiting factor for precipitation. Simulations demonstrate that diurnal feed flow variations of ±50% have a small effect on the rate of nutrient recovery. Overall, the study shows that valuable insights are gained in relation to process performance predictions, which should lead to more confident process design, operation and control.

Sensitivity of precipitation statistics to urban growth in a subtropical coastal megacity cluster.

Science.gov (United States)

Holst, Christopher Claus; Chan, Johnny C L; Tam, Chi-Yung

2017-09-01

This short paper presents an investigation on how human activities may or may not affect precipitation based on numerical simulations of precipitation in a benchmark case with modified lower boundary conditions, representing different stages of urban development in the model. The results indicate that certain degrees of urbanization affect the likelihood of heavy precipitation significantly, while less urbanized or smaller cities are much less prone to these effects. Such a result can be explained based on our previous work where the sensitivity of precipitation statistics to surface anthropogenic heat sources lies in the generation of buoyancy and turbulence in the planetary boundary layer and dissipation through triggering of convection. Thus only mega cities of sufficient size, and hence human-activity-related anthropogenic heat emission, can expect to experience such effects. In other words, as cities grow, their effects upon precipitation appear to grow as well. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Nitrate-cancrinite precipitation on quartz sand in simulated Hanford tank solutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bickmore, B R; Nagy, K L; Young, J S; Drexler, J W

2001-11-15

Caustic NaNO3 solutions containing dissolved Al were reacted with quartz sand at 89 degrees C to simulate possible reactions between leaked nuclear waste and primary subsurface minerals at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site in Washington. Nitrate-cancrinite began to precipitate onto the quartz after 2-10 days, cementing the grains together. Estimates of the equilibrium constant for the precipitation reaction differ for solutions with 0.1 or 1.0 m OH- (log Keq = 30.4 +/- 0.8 and 36.2 +/- 0.6, respectively). The difference in solubility may be attributable to more perfect crystallinity (i.e., fewer stacking faults) in the higher-pH cancrinite structure. This is supported by electron micrographs of crystal morphology and measured rates of Na volatilization under an electron beam. Precipitate crystallinity may affect radionuclide mobility, because stacking faults in the cancrinite structure can diminish its zeolitic cation exchange properties. The precipitation rate near the onset of nucleation depends on the total Al and Si concentrations in solution. The evolution of experimental Si concentrations was modeled by considering the dependence of quartz dissolution rate on AI(OH)4- activity, cancrinite precipitation, and the reduction of reactive surface area of quartz due to coverage by cancrinite.

SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF THE HYDRAULIC FRACTURING OPERATION IN A HEAVY OIL RESERVOIR IN SOUTHERN IRAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

REZA MASOOMI

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Extraction of oil from some Iranian reservoirs due to high viscosity of their oil or reducing the formation permeability due to asphaltene precipitation or other problems is not satisfactory. Hydraulic fracturing method increases production in the viscous oil reservoirs that the production rate is low. So this is very important for some Iranian reservoirs that contain these characteristics. In this study, hydraulic fracturing method has been compositionally simulated in a heavy oil reservoir in southern Iran. In this study, the parameters of the fracture half length, the propagation direction of the cracks and the depth of fracturing have been considered in this oil reservoir. The aim of this study is to find the best scenario which has the highest recovery factor in this oil reservoir. For this purpose the parameters of the length, propagation direction and depth of fracturing have been optimized in this reservoir. Through this study the cumulative oil production has been evaluated with the compositional simulation for the next 10 years in this reservoir. Also at the end of this paper, increasing the final production of this oil reservoir caused by optimized hydraulic fracturing has been evaluated.

Model simulations with COSMO-SPECS: impact of heterogeneous freezing modes and ice nucleating particle types on ice formation and precipitation in a deep convective cloud

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Diehl

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In deep convective clouds, heavy rain is often formed involving the ice phase. Simulations were performed using the 3-D cloud resolving model COSMO-SPECS with detailed spectral microphysics including parameterizations of homogeneous and three heterogeneous freezing modes. The initial conditions were selected to result in a deep convective cloud reaching 14 km of altitude with strong updrafts up to 40 m s−1. At such altitudes with corresponding temperatures below −40 °C the major fraction of liquid drops freezes homogeneously. The goal of the present model simulations was to investigate how additional heterogeneous freezing will affect ice formation and precipitation although its contribution to total ice formation may be rather low. In such a situation small perturbations that do not show significant effects at first sight may trigger cloud microphysical responses. Effects of the following small perturbations were studied: (1 additional ice formation via immersion, contact, and deposition modes in comparison to solely homogeneous freezing, (2 contact and deposition freezing in comparison to immersion freezing, and (3 small fractions of biological ice nucleating particles (INPs in comparison to higher fractions of mineral dust INP. The results indicate that the modification of precipitation proceeds via the formation of larger ice particles, which may be supported by direct freezing of larger drops, the growth of pristine ice particles by riming, and by nucleation of larger drops by collisions with pristine ice particles. In comparison to the reference case with homogeneous freezing only, such small perturbations due to additional heterogeneous freezing rather affect the total precipitation amount. It is more likely that the temporal development and the local distribution of precipitation are affected by such perturbations. This results in a gradual increase in precipitation at early cloud stages instead of a strong increase at

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

Science.gov (United States)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Waste and Simulant Precipitation Issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steele, W.V.

2000-01-01

As Savannah River Site (SRS) personnel have studied methods of preparing high-level waste for vitrification in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), questions have arisen with regard to the formation of insoluble waste precipitates at inopportune times. One option for decontamination of the SRS waste streams employs the use of an engineered form of crystalline silicotitanate (CST). Testing of the process during FY 1999 identified problems associated with the formation of precipitates during cesium sorption tests using CST. These precipitates may, under some circumstances, obstruct the pores of the CST particles and, hence, interfere with the sorption process. In addition, earlier results from the DWPF recycle stream compatibility testing have shown that leaching occurs from the CST when it is stored at 80 C in a high-pH environment. Evidence was established that some level of components of the CST, such as silica, was leached from the CST. This report describes the results of equilibrium modeling and precipitation studies associated with the overall stability of the waste streams, CST component leaching, and the presence of minor components in the waste streams

A new approach for assimilation of two-dimensional radar precipitation in a high resolution NWP model

Science.gov (United States)

Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus; Hansen Sass, Bent; Woetman, Niels; Getreuer Jensen, David; Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; GIll, Rasphal; Vedel, Henrik

2014-05-01

The DMI nowcasting system has been running in a pre-operational state for the past year. The system consists of hourly simulations with the High Resolution Limited Area weather model combined with surface and three-dimensional variational assimilation at each restart and nudging of satellite cloud products and radar precipitation. Nudging of a two-dimensional radar reflectivity CAPPI product is achieved using a new method where low level horizontal divergence is nudged towards pseudo observations. Pseudo observations are calculated based on an assumed relation between divergence and precipitation rate and the strength of the nudging is proportional to the offset between observed and modelled precipitation leading to increased moisture convergence below cloud base if there is an under-production of precipitation relative to the CAPPI product. If the model over-predicts precipitation, the low level moisture source is reduced, and in-cloud moisture is nudged towards environmental values. In this talk results will be discussed based on calculation of the fractions skill score in cases with heavy precipitation over Denmark. Furthermore, results from simulations combining reflectivity nudging and extrapolation of reflectivity will be shown. Results indicate that the new method leads to fast adjustment of the dynamical state of the model to facilitate precipitation release when the model precipitation intensity is too low. Removal of precipitation is also shown to be of importance and strong improvements were found in the position of the precipitation systems. Bias is reduced for low and extreme precipitation rates.

Dislocation pinning effects induced by nano-precipitates during warm laser shock peening: Dislocation dynamic simulation and experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Yiliang; Ye, Chang; Gao, Huang; Kim, Bong-Joong; Suslov, Sergey; Stach, Eric A.; Cheng, Gary J.

2011-07-01

Warm laser shock peening (WLSP) is a new high strain rate surface strengthening process that has been demonstrated to significantly improve the fatigue performance of metallic components. This improvement is mainly due to the interaction of dislocations with highly dense nanoscale precipitates, which are generated by dynamic precipitation during the WLSP process. In this paper, the dislocation pinning effects induced by the nanoscale precipitates during WLSP are systematically studied. Aluminum alloy 6061 and AISI 4140 steel are selected as the materials with which to conduct WLSP experiments. Multiscale discrete dislocation dynamics (MDDD) simulation is conducted in order to investigate the interaction of dislocations and precipitates during the shock wave propagation. The evolution of dislocation structures during the shock wave propagation is studied. The dislocation structures after WLSP are characterized via transmission electron microscopy and are compared with the results of the MDDD simulation. The results show that nano-precipitates facilitate the generation of highly dense and uniformly distributed dislocation structures. The dislocation pinning effect is strongly affected by the density, size, and space distribution of nano-precipitates.

Computer simulation for precipitation process of θ (Ni3V) and γ' (Ni3Al) with microscopic phase-field method

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

HOU Hua; XU Hong; ZHAO Yu-hong

2006-01-01

With the microscopic phase-field model, the precipitation process of aged alloys was explored by computer simulation, which could clarify some discussional views on the precipitation mechanisms of alloys. The precipitation process of Ni75Al2.5V22.5 alloy was studied. From the simulated atomic pictures, calculated order parameters and volume fraction of different precipitates, it's found that the θ ordered phase precipitates earlier than γ' ordered phase by congruent ordering+spinodal decomposition mechanism and thus produces a nonstoicheometric θ single ordered phase. Then, the nonstoicheometric γ' phase is precipitated by a non-classical nucleation and growth mechanism at the APBS of θ phases. Meanwhile, both of them transform to stoicheometric ordered phases.

Analysis of convection-permitting simulations for capturing heavy rainfall events over Myanmar Region

Science.gov (United States)

Acierto, R. A. E.; Kawasaki, A.

2017-12-01

Perennial flooding due to heavy rainfall events causes strong impacts on the society and economy. With increasing pressures of rapid development and potential for climate change impacts, Myanmar experiences a rapid increase in disaster risk. Heavy rainfall hazard assessment is key on quantifying such disaster risk in both current and future conditions. Downscaling using Regional Climate Models (RCM) such as Weather Research and Forecast model have been used extensively for assessing such heavy rainfall events. However, usage of convective parameterizations can introduce large errors in simulating rainfall. Convective-permitting simulations have been used to deal with this problem by increasing the resolution of RCMs to 4km. This study focuses on the heavy rainfall events during the six-year (2010-2015) wet period season from May to September in Myanmar. The investigation primarily utilizes rain gauge observation for comparing downscaled heavy rainfall events in 4km resolution using ERA-Interim as boundary conditions using 12km-4km one-way nesting method. The study aims to provide basis for production of high-resolution climate projections over Myanmar in order to contribute for flood hazard and risk assessment.

Precipitation response of austenitic stainless steel to simulated fusion irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maziasz, P.J.

1978-01-01

The precipitation response of annealed type 316 stainless steel irradiated in HFIR is studied and compared to previously observed thermal aging and fast reactor irradiation responses. Irradiation in HFIR simultaneously produces high levels of helium and displacement damage and partially simulates a fusion environment. Samples have been irradiated at temperatures from 550 to 680 0 C to fluences producing up to 3300 appm He and 47 dpa

Improving snow water equivalent simulations in an alpine basin using blended gage precipitation and snow pillow measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Sohrabi, M.; Safeeq, M.; Conklin, M. H.

2017-12-01

Snowpack is a critical freshwater reservoir that sustains ecosystem, natural habitat, hydropower, agriculture, and urban water supply in many areas around the world. Accurate estimation of basin scale snow water equivalent (SWE), through both measurement and modeling, has been significantly recognized to improve regional water resource management. Recent advances in remote data acquisition techniques have improved snow measurements but our ability to model snowpack evolution is largely hampered by poor knowledge of inherently variable high-elevation precipitation patterns. For a variety of reasons, majority of the precipitation gages are located in low and mid-elevation range and function as drivers for basin scale hydrologic modeling. Here, we blend observed gage precipitation from low and mid-elevation with point observations of SWE from high-elevation snow pillow into a physically based snow evolution model (SnowModel) to better represent the basin-scale precipitation field and improve snow simulations. To do this, we constructed two scenarios that differed in only precipitation. In WTH scenario, we forced the SnowModel using spatially distributed gage precipitation data. In WTH+SP scenario, the model was forced with spatially distributed precipitation data derived from gage precipitation along with observed precipitation from snow pillows. Since snow pillows do not directly measure precipitation, we uses positive change in SWE as a proxy for precipitation. The SnowModel was implemented at daily time step and 100 m resolution for the Kings River Basin, USA over 2000-2014. Our results show an improvement in snow simulation under WTH+SP as compared to WTH scenario, which can be attributed to better representation in high-elevation precipitation patterns under WTH+SP. The average Nash Sutcliffe efficiency over all snow pillow and course sites was substantially higher for WTH+SP (0.77) than for WTH scenario (0.47). The maximum difference in observed and simulated

Classical simulations of heavy-ion fusion reactions and weakly ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

82, No. 5. — journal of. May 2014 physics pp. 879–891. Classical simulations of heavy-ion fusion reactions and weakly-bound projectile breakup reactions ... on the collision energy and the moment of inertia of the deformed nucleus. ... where each individual nucleus consists of a number of protons and neutrons, in some.

Short-duration Electron Precipitation Studied by Test Particle Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaejin Lee

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Energy spectra of electron microbursts from 170 keV to 340 keV have been measured by the solid-state detectors aboard the low-altitude (680 km polar-orbiting Korean STSAT-1 (Science and Technology SATellite. These measurements have revealed two important characteristics unique to the microbursts: (1 They are produced by a fast-loss cone-filling process in which the interaction time for pitch-angle scattering is less than 50 ms and (2 The e-folding energy of the perpendicular component is larger than that of the parallel component, and the loss cone is not completely filled by electrons. To understand how wave-particle interactions could generate microbursts, we performed a test particle simulation and investigated how the waves scattered electron pitch angles within the timescale required for microburst precipitation. The application of rising-frequency whistler-mode waves to electrons of different energies moving in a dipole magnetic field showed that chorus magnetic wave fields, rather than electric fields, were the main cause of microburst events, which implied that microbursts could be produced by a quasi-adiabatic process. In addition, the simulation results showed that high-energy electrons could resonate with chorus waves at high magnetic latitudes where the loss cone was larger, which might explain the decreased e-folding energy of precipitated microbursts compared to that of trapped electrons.

Factors controlling stable isotope composition of European precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozanski, K.; Sonntag, C.; Muennich, K.O.

1982-01-01

The seasonal and spatial variations of stable isotope ratios in present day European precipitation are simulated with a simple multibox model of the mean west-east horizontal transport of the atmospheric water vapour across the European continent. Isotope fractionation during the formation of precipitation leads to an increasing depletion of heavy isotopes in the residual air moisture as it moves towards the centre of the continent. This isotopic depletion is partly compensated, particularly in summer, by evapotranspiration, which is assumed to transfer soil water into the atmosphere without isotope fractionation. The model estimates are based on horizontal water vapour flux data, varying seasonally between 88 and 130 kg m -1 s -1 for the Atlantic coast region, and on the monthly precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface air temperature data available for various locations in Europe. Both continental and seasonal temperature effects observed in the stable isotope composition of European precipitation are fairly well reproduced by the model. The calculations show that the isotopic composition of local precipitation is primarily controlled by regional scale processes, i.e. by the water vapour transport patterns into the continent, and by the average precipitation-evapotranspiration history of the air masses precipitating at a given place. Local parameters such as the surface and/or cloud base temperature or the amount of precipitation modify the isotope ratios only slightly. Implications of the model predictions for the interpretation of stable isotope ratios in earlier periods as they are preserved in ice cores and in groundwater are also discussed. (Auth.)

Simulation of multiple scattering background in heavy ion backscattering spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, M.M.; O'Connor, D.J.

1999-01-01

With the development of heavy ion backscattering spectrometry (HIBS) for the detection of trace quantities of heavy-atom impurities on Si surfaces, it is necessary to quantify the multiple scattering contribution to the spectral background. In the present work, the Monte Carlo computer simulation program TRIM has been used to study the backscattering spectrum and the multiple scattering background features for heavy ions C, Ne, Si, Ar and Kr impinging on four types of targets: (1) a single ultra-thin (free standing) Au film of 10 A thickness, (2) a 10 A Au film on a 50 A Si surface, (3) a 10 A Au film on an Si substrate (10 000 A), and (4) a thick target (10 000 A) of pure Si. The ratio of the signal from the Au thin layer to the background due to multiple scattering has been derived by fitting the simulation results. From the simulation results, it is found that the Au film contributes to the background which the Si plays a role in developing due to the ion's multiple scattering in the substrate. Such a background is generated neither by only the Au thin layer nor by the pure Si substrate independently. The corresponding mechanism of multiple scattering in the target can be explained as one large-angle scattering in the Au layer and subsequently several small angle scatterings in the substrate. This study allows an appropriate choice of incident beam species and energy range when the HIBS is utilized to analyse low level impurities in Si wafers

Simulation of the precipitation process of ordered intermetallic compounds in binary and ternary Ni-Al-based alloys by the phase-field model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hou Hua; Zhao Yuhong; Zhao Yuhui

2009-01-01

With the microscopic phase-field model, atomic-scale computer simulation programs for the precipitation mechanism of the ordered intermetallic compound γ' in binary Ni-15.5 at.%Al alloy, θ and γ' in ternary Ni 75 Al x V 25-x alloys were worked out based on the microscopic diffusion equation and non-equilibrium free energy. The simulation can be applied to the whole precipitation process and composition range. A prior assumptions on the new phase structure or transformation path was unnecessary, the possible non-equilibrium phases, atomic clustering and ordering could be described automatically, and atomic images, order parameters and volume fractions of precipitates were obtained. Computer simulation was performed systematically on the precipitation mechanism, precipitation sequence of θ and γ' in complicated system with ordering and clustering simultaneously. Through the simulated atomic images and chemical order parameters of precipitates, we can explain the complex precipitation mechanisms of θ (Ni 3 V) and γ' (Ni 3 Al) ordered phases. For the binary alloy, the precipitation mechanism of γ' phase has the characteristic of both non-classical nucleation and growth (NCNG) and congruent ordering and spinodal decomposition (COSD). For the ternary alloys, the precipitation characteristic of γ' phase transforms from NCNG to COSD gradually, otherwise, the precipitation characteristic of θ phase transforms from COSD to NCNG mechanism gradually

Yield strength prediction in Ni-base alloy 718Plus based on thermo-kinetic precipitation simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmadi, M.R.; Povoden-Karadeniz, E.; Whitmore, L.; Stockinger, M.; Falahati, A.; Kozeschnik, E.

2014-01-01

The yield strength of Allvac ® 718Plus ™ during aging is computed using integrated physical models that take into account intrinsic, grain boundary, solid solution and precipitate strengthening contributions. Precipitation strengthening of γ′ has the main effect on the final yield strength in this alloy during aging, with the coherency and anti-phase boundary effects providing the major strengthening contributions. We utilize transmission electron microscopy to obtain the unknown physical parameters entering the strengthening models and compare precipitate size and distribution with the simulation results

[Using sequential indicator simulation method to define risk areas of soil heavy metals in farmland.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hao; Song, Ying Qiang; Hu, Yue Ming; Chen, Fei Xiang; Zhang, Rui

2018-05-01

The heavy metals in soil have serious impacts on safety, ecological environment and human health due to their toxicity and accumulation. It is necessary to efficiently identify the risk area of heavy metals in farmland soil, which is of important significance for environment protection, pollution warning and farmland risk control. We collected 204 samples and analyzed the contents of seven kinds of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg) in Zengcheng District of Guangzhou, China. In order to overcame the problems of the data, including the limitation of abnormal values and skewness distribution and the smooth effect with the traditional kriging methods, we used sequential indicator simulation method (SISIM) to define the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and combined Hakanson index method to identify potential ecological risk area of heavy metals in farmland. The results showed that: (1) Based on the similar accuracy of spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, the SISIM had a better expression of detail rebuild than ordinary kriging in small scale area. Compared to indicator kriging, the SISIM had less error rate (4.9%-17.1%) in uncertainty evaluation of heavy-metal risk identification. The SISIM had less smooth effect and was more applicable to simulate the spatial uncertainty assessment of soil heavy metals and risk identification. (2) There was no pollution in Zengcheng's farmland. Moderate potential ecological risk was found in the southern part of study area due to enterprise production, human activities, and river sediments. This study combined the sequential indicator simulation with Hakanson risk index method, and effectively overcame the outlier information loss and smooth effect of traditional kriging method. It provided a new way to identify the soil heavy metal risk area of farmland in uneven sampling.

An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

2018-03-01

Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

Meteorological features associated with unprecedented precipitation ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Unprecedented precipitation along with heavy falls occurred over many parts of India from 28th February to 2nd March 2015. Many of the stations of northwest and central India received an all time high 24 hr cumulative precipitation of March during this period. Even the national capital, New Delhi, broke all the previous ...

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future precipitation trends based on downscaled cmip5 simulations data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mentgal, A.; Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M.A.

2017-01-01

This study investigates future changes in precipitation over the CRB (Columbia River Basin) in both wet (DJF) and dry (JJA) seasons under RCP85 GHG emission scenario. The simulations from four climate models which participated in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) were downscaled using the BCSD (Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation) method. After downscaling, extreme value analysis and MME (Multi Model Ensemble) averaging is performed. This study focuses on computing 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return levels for both winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The maximum winter precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods have been estimated to be about 112, 127, 148 and 171 mm/day respectively whereas the maximum summer precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods are observed to be about 56, 81, 96 and 126 mm/day respectively. The MME average outperformed the individual models in simulating the historical precipitation in both seasons. The MME results showed a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation and decrease in mean precipitation in both future wet and dry seasons. Largest increase in precipitation occurs over the higher elevations of the Cascades Range, Coast Range and the Mountainous Range. (author)

Verification of high resolution simulation of precipitation and wind in Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Menezes, Isilda; Pereira, Mário; Moreira, Demerval; Carvalheiro, Luís; Bugalho, Lourdes; Corte-Real, João

2017-04-01

Demand of energy and freshwater continues to grow as the global population and demands increase. Precipitation feed the freshwater ecosystems which provides a wealth of goods and services for society and river flow to sustain native species and natural ecosystem functions. The adoption of the wind and hydro-electric power supplies will sustain energy demands/services without restricting the economic growth and accelerated policies scenarios. However, the international meteorological observation network is not sufficiently dense to directly support high resolution climatic research. In this sense, coupled global and regional atmospheric models constitute the most appropriate physical and numerical tool for weather forecasting and downscaling in high resolution grids with the capacity to solve problems resulting from the lack of observed data and measuring errors. Thus, this study aims to calibrate and validate of the WRF regional model from precipitation and wind fields simulation, in high spatial resolution grid cover in Portugal. The simulations were performed in two-way nesting with three grids of increasing resolution (60 km, 20 km and 5 km) and the model performance assessed for the summer and winter months (January and July), using input variables from two different reanalyses and forecasted databases (ERA-Interim and NCEP-FNL) and different forcing schemes. The verification procedure included: (i) the use of several statistics error estimators, correlation based measures and relative errors descriptors; and, (ii) an observed dataset composed by time series of hourly precipitation, wind speed and direction provided by the Portuguese meteorological institute for a comprehensive set of weather stations. Main results suggested the good ability of the WRF to: (i) reproduce the spatial patterns of the mean and total observed fields; (ii) with relatively small values of bias and other errors; and, (iii) and good temporal correlation. These findings are in good

Simulation of transient effects in the heavy ion fusion injectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Y.J.; Hewett, D.

1993-01-01

The authors have used the 2-D PIC code, GYMNOS, to study the transient behaviors in the Heavy Ion Fusion (HIF) injectors. GYMNOS simulations accurately provide the steady state Child-Langmuir current and the beam transient behavior within a planar diode. The simulations of the LBL HIF ESAC injector experiments agree well with the experimental data and EGUN steady state results. Simulations of the nominal HIF injectors have revealed the need to design the accelerating electrodes carefully to control the ion beam current, particularly the ion loss at the end of the bunch as the extraction voltage is reduced

Simulation of transient effects in the heavy ion fusion injectors

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Jiuan; Hewett, D. W.

1993-05-01

We have used the 2-D PIC code, GYMNOS, to study the transient behaviors in the Heavy Ion Fusion (HIF) injectors. GYMNOS simulations accurately provide the steady state Child-Langmuir current and the beam transient behavior within a planar diode. The simulations of the LBL HIF ESAC injector experiments agree well with the experimental data and EGUN steady state results. Simulations of the nominal HIF injectors have revealed the need to design the accelerating electrodes carefully to control the ion beam current, particularly the ion loss at the end of the bunch as the extraction voltage is reduced.

[Variations and simulation of stable isotopes in precipitation in the Heihe River basin].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jin-Kui; Yang, Qi-Yue; Ding, Yong-Jian; Ye, Bai-Sheng; Zhang, Ming-Quan

2011-07-01

To study the variations of deltaD and delta18O in precipitation, 301 samples were sampled during 2002-2004 in 6 sites in the Heihe River basin, Northwestern China. The deltaD and delta18O values ranged from 59 per thousand to -254 per thousand and 6.5 per thousand to -33.4 per thousand, respectively. This wide range indicated that stable isotopes in precipitation were controlled by different condensation mechanisms as a function of air temperature and varying sources of moisture. delta18O in precipitation had a close positive relationship with the air temperature, i. e., a clear temperature effect existed in this area. At a monthly scale, no precipitation effect existed. On the other hand, a weak precipitation effect still accrued at precipitation events scale. The spatial variation of delta18O showed that the weighted average delta18O values decreased with the increasing altitude of sampling sites at a gradient of -0. 47 per thousand/100m. A regional Meteoric Water Line, deltaD = 7.82 delta18O + 7.63, was nearly identical to the Meteoric Water Line in the Northern China. The results of backward trajectory of each precipitation day at Xishui showed that the moisture of the precipitation in cold season (October to March) mainly originated from the west while the moisture source was more complicated in warm season (April to September). The simulation of seasonal delta18O variation showed that the stable isotope composition of precipitation tended to a clear sine-wave seasonal variation.

Diagnosis of inconsistencies in multi-year gridded precipitation data over mountainous areas and related impacts on hydrologic simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Mizukami, N.; Smith, M. B.

2010-12-01

It is common for the error characteristics of long-term precipitation data to change over time due to various factors such as gauge relocation and changes in data processing methods. The temporal consistency of precipitation data error characteristics is as important as data accuracy itself for hydrologic model calibration and subsequent use of the calibrated model for streamflow prediction. In mountainous areas, the generation of precipitation grids relies on sparse gage networks, the makeup of which often varies over time. This causes a change in error characteristics of the long-term precipitation data record. We will discuss the diagnostic analysis of the consistency of gridded precipitation time series and illustrate the adverse effect of inconsistent precipitation data on a hydrologic model simulation. We used hourly 4 km gridded precipitation time series over a mountainous basin in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California from October 1988 through September 2006. The basin is part of the broader study area that served as the focus of the second phase of the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP-2), organized by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To check the consistency of the gridded precipitation time series, double mass analysis was performed using single pixel and basin mean areal precipitation (MAP) values derived from gridded DMIP-2 and Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation data. The analysis leads to the conclusion that over the entire study time period, a clear change in error characteristics in the DMIP-2 data occurred in the beginning of 2003. This matches the timing of one of the major gage network changes. The inconsistency of two MAP time series computed from the gridded precipitation fields over two elevation zones was corrected by adjusting hourly values based on the double mass analysis. We show that model

Thermodynamic modeling and kinetics simulation of precipitate phases in AISI 316 stainless steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Y.; Busby, J.T.

2014-01-01

This work aims at utilizing modern computational microstructural modeling tools to accelerate the understanding of phase stability in austenitic steels under extended thermal aging. Using the CALPHAD approach, a thermodynamic database OCTANT (ORNL Computational Thermodynamics for Applied Nuclear Technology), including elements of Fe, C, Cr, Ni, Mn, Mo, Si, and Ti, has been developed with a focus on reliable thermodynamic modeling of precipitate phases in AISI 316 austenitic stainless steels. The thermodynamic database was validated by comparing the calculated results with experimental data from commercial 316 austenitic steels. The developed computational thermodynamics was then coupled with precipitation kinetics simulation to understand the temporal evolution of precipitates in austenitic steels under long-term thermal aging (up to 600,000 h) at a temperature regime from 300 to 900 °C. This study discusses the effect of dislocation density and difusion coefficients on the precipitation kinetics at low temperatures, which shed a light on investigating the phase stability and transformation in austenitic steels used in light water reactors

Simulation of heavy metal contamination of fresh water bodies: toxic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Horsfall

www.bioline.org.br/ja. Simulation of heavy metal contamination of fresh water bodies: toxic effects in the ... 96 hours (though sampling was done at the 48th hour). Biochemical markers of ... silver, while enhancing the bioavailability of mercury in Ceriodaphnia ..... Biochemical and molecular disorders of bilirubin metabolism.

Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kyselý, Jan; Gaál, Ladislav; Picek, J.; Schindler, M.

2013-01-01

Roč. 4, č. 3 (2013), s. 265-286 ISSN 2040-2244 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA ČR GAP209/10/2045 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : August 2010 flood * central Europe * climate change scenarios * extreme value analysis * heavy precipitation * regional frequency analysis Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.044, year: 2013 http://www.iwaponline.com/jwc/004/jwc0040265.htm

Precipitous Birth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Yee

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Audience: This scenario was developed to educate emergency medicine residents on the management of a precipitous birth in the emergency department (ED. The case is also appropriate for teaching of medical students and advanced practice providers, as well as reviewing the principles of crisis resource management, teamwork, and communication. Introduction: Patients with precipitous birth require providers to manage two patients simultaneously with limited time and resources. Crisis resource management skills will be tested once baby is delivered, and the neonate will require assessment for potential neonatal resuscitation. Objectives: At the conclusion of the simulation session, learners will be able to manage women who have precipitous deliveries, as well as perform neonatal assessment and management. Method: This session was conducted using high-fidelity simulation, followed by a debriefing session and lecture on precipitous birth management and neonatal evaluation.

Development of Radar-Satellite Blended QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Technique for heavy rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Sangmin; Yoon, Sunkwon; Rhee, Jinyoung; Park, Kyungwon

2016-04-01

Due to the recent extreme weather and climate change, a frequency and size of localized heavy rainfall increases and it may bring various hazards including sediment-related disasters, flooding and inundation. To prevent and mitigate damage from such disasters, very short range forecasting and nowcasting of precipitation amounts are very important. Weather radar data very useful in monitoring and forecasting because weather radar has high resolution in spatial and temporal. Generally, extrapolation based on the motion vector is the best method of precipitation forecasting using radar rainfall data for a time frame within a few hours from the present. However, there is a need for improvement due to the radar rainfall being less accurate than rain-gauge on surface. To improve the radar rainfall and to take advantage of the COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) data, a technique to blend the different data types for very short range forecasting purposes was developed in the present study. The motion vector of precipitation systems are estimated using 1.5km CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) reflectivity by pattern matching method, which indicates the systems' direction and speed of movement and blended radar-COMS rain field is used for initial data. Since the original horizontal resolution of COMS is 4 km while that of radar is about 1 km, spatial downscaling technique is used to downscale the COMS data from 4 to 1 km pixels in order to match with the radar data. The accuracies of rainfall forecasting data were verified utilizing AWS (Automatic Weather System) observed data for an extreme rainfall occurred in the southern part of Korean Peninsula on 25 August 2014. The results of this study will be used as input data for an urban stream real-time flood early warning system and a prediction model of landslide. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (13SCIPS04) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by

Simulator Investigations of the Problems of Flying a Swept-Wing Transport Aircraft in Heavy Turbulence

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, Richard S.; Larsen, William E.

1965-01-01

An investigation of several factors which may contribute to the problem of piloting jet transport aircraft in heavy turbulence was conducted by using a piloted simulator that included the most significant airplane response and cockpit vibrations induced by rough air. Results indicated that the primary fuselage structural frequency contributed significantly to a distracting cockpit environment, and there was obtained evidence of severely reduced instrument flight proficiency during simulated maneuvering flight in heavy turbulence. It is concluded that the addition of similar rough-air response capabilities to training simulators would be of value in pilot indoctrination in turbulent-flight procedures.

Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

2018-04-01

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further

The simulation of stationary and non-stationary regime operation of heavy water production facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peculea, M.; Beca, T.; Constantinescu, D.M.; Dumitrescu, M.; Dimulescu, A.; Isbasescu, G.; Stefanescu, I.; Mihai, M.; Dogaru, C.; Marinescu, M.; Olariu, S.; Constantin, T.; Necula, A.

1995-01-01

This paper refers to testing procedures of the production capacity of heavy water production pilot, industrial scale plants and of heavy water reconcentration facilities. Simulation codes taking into account the mass and heat transfers inside the exchange columns were developed. These codes provided valuable insight about the isotope build-up of the installation which allowed estimating the time of reaching the stationary regime. Also transient regimes following perturbations in the operating parameters (i.e. temperature, pressure, fluid rates) of the installation were simulated and an optimal rate of routine inspections and adjustments was thus established

Optimal Physics Parameterization Scheme Combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Seasonal Precipitation Simulation over Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Yao Kuma Agyeman

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Seasonal predictions of precipitation, among others, are important to help mitigate the effects of drought and floods on agriculture, hydropower generation, disasters, and many more. This work seeks to obtain a suitable combination of physics schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model for seasonal precipitation simulation over Ghana. Using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as forcing data, simulation experiments spanning eight months (from April to November were performed for two different years: a dry year (2001 and a wet year (2008. A double nested approach was used with the outer domain at 50 km resolution covering West Africa and the inner domain covering Ghana at 10 km resolution. The results suggest that the WRF model generally overestimated the observed precipitation by a mean value between 3% and 64% for both years. Most of the scheme combinations overestimated (underestimated precipitation over coastal (northern zones of Ghana for both years but estimated precipitation reasonably well over forest and transitional zones. On the whole, the combination of WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme, Grell-Devenyi Ensemble Cumulus Scheme, and Asymmetric Convective Model Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme simulated the best temporal pattern and temporal variability with the least relative bias for both years and therefore is recommended for Ghana.

Dynamical simulation of heavy ion collisions; VUU and QMD method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niita, Koji

1992-01-01

We review two simulation methods based on the Vlasov-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (VUU) equation and Quantum Molecular Dynamics (QMD), which are the most widely accepted theoretical framework for the description of intermediate-energy heavy-ion reactions. We show some results of the calculations and compare them with the experimental data. (author)

Assessment of WRF microphysics schemes to simulate extreme precipitation events from the perspective of GMI radiative signatures

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Y.; Shin, D. B.; Joh, M.

2015-12-01

Numerical simulations of precipitation depend to a large degree on the assumed cloud microphysics schemes representing the formation, growth and fallout of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Recent studies show that assumed cloud microphysics play a major role not only in forecasting precipitation, especially in cases of extreme precipitation events, but also in the quality of the passive microwave rainfall estimation. Evaluations of the various Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model microphysics schemes in this study are based on a method that was originally developed to construct the a-priori databases of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures (TBs) for precipitation retrievals. This methodology generates three-dimensional (3D) precipitation fields by matching the GPM dual frequency radar (DPR) reflectivity profiles with those calculated from cloud resolving model (CRM)-derived hydrometeor profiles. The method eventually provides 3D simulated precipitation fields over the DPR scan swaths. That is, atmospheric and hydrometeor profiles can be generated at each DPR pixel based on CRM and DPR reflectivity profiles. The generated raining systems over DPR observation fields can be applied to any radiometers that are unaccompanied with a radar for microwave radiative calculation with consideration of each sensor's channel and field of view. Assessment of the WRF model microphysics schemes for several typhoon cases in terms of emission and scattering signals of GMI will be discussed.

The Microwave Properties of Simulated Melting Precipitation Particles: Sensitivity to Initial Melting

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, B. T.; Olson, W. S.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.

2016-01-01

A simplified approach is presented for assessing the microwave response to the initial melting of realistically shaped ice particles. This paper is divided into two parts: (1) a description of the Single Particle Melting Model (SPMM), a heuristic melting simulation for ice-phase precipitation particles of any shape or size (SPMM is applied to two simulated aggregate snow particles, simulating melting up to 0.15 melt fraction by mass), and (2) the computation of the single-particle microwave scattering and extinction properties of these hydrometeors, using the discrete dipole approximation (via DDSCAT), at the following selected frequencies: 13.4, 35.6, and 94.0GHz for radar applications and 89, 165.0, and 183.31GHz for radiometer applications. These selected frequencies are consistent with current microwave remote-sensing platforms, such as CloudSat and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Comparisons with calculations using variable-density spheres indicate significant deviations in scattering and extinction properties throughout the initial range of melting (liquid volume fractions less than 0.15). Integration of the single-particle properties over an exponential particle size distribution provides additional insight into idealized radar reflectivity and passive microwave brightness temperature sensitivity to variations in size/mass, shape, melt fraction, and particle orientation.

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Lionello

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Three-stage classical molecular dynamics model for simulation of heavy-ion fusion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Godre Subodh S.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A three-stage Classical Molecular Dynamics (3S-CMD approach for heavy-ion fusion is developed. In this approach the Classical Rigid-Body Dynamics simulation for heavy-ion collision involving light deformed nucleus is initiated on their Rutherford trajectories at very large initial separation. Collision simulation is then followed by relaxation of the rigid-body constrains for one or both the colliding nuclei at distances close to the barrier when the trajectories of all the nucleons are obtained in a Classical Molecular Dynamics approach. This 3S-CMD approach explicitly takes into account not only the long range Coulomb reorientation of the deformed collision partner but also the internal vibrational excitations of one or both the nuclei at distances close to the barrier. The results of the dynamical simulation for 24Mg+208Pb collision show significant modification of the fusion barrier and calculated fusion cross sections due to internal excitations.

Optimisation of parameters for co-precipitation of uranium and plutonium - results of simulation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandey, N.K.; Velvandan, P.V.; Murugesan, S.; Ahmed, M.K.; Koganti, S.B.

1999-01-01

Preparation of plutonium oxide from plutonium nitrate solution generally proceeds via oxalate precipitation route. In a nuclear fuel reprocessing scheme this step succeeds the partitioning step (separation of uranium and plutonium). Results of present studies confirm that it is possible to avoid partitioning step and recover plutonium and uranium as co-precipitated product. This also helps in minimising the risk of proliferation of fissile material. In this procedure, the solubility of uranium oxalate in nitric acid is effectively used. Co-precipitation parameters are optimised with simulated solutions of uranium nitrate and thorium nitrate (in place of plutonium). On the basis of obtained results a reconversion flow-sheet is designed and reported here. (author)

Role of atmospheric aerosol concentration on deep convective precipitation: Cloud-resolving model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

2007-12-01

A two-dimensional cloud-resolving model with detailed spectral bin microphysics is used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: south Florida, Oklahoma, and the central Pacific. A pair of model simulations, one with an idealized low cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) (clean) and one with an idealized high CCN (dirty environment), is conducted for each case. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low-CCN case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN. However, this suppression only occurs during the early stages of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case to almost no effect in the Florida case to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling in the lower troposphere is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions with the low-level wind shear. Consequently, precipitation processes can be more vigorous. For example, the evaporative cooling is more than two times stronger in the lower troposphere with high CCN for the Pacific case. Sensitivity tests also suggest that ice processes are crucial for suppressing precipitation in the Oklahoma case with high CCN. A comparison and review of other modeling studies are also presented.

ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) Science Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leung, L. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Prather, K. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ralph, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Rosenfeld, D. [The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel); Spackman, R. [Science and Technology Corporation (STC), Hampton, VA (United States); DeMott, P. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Fairall, C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hagos, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hughes, M. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Long, C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rutledge, S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Waliser, D. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States); Wang, H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-09-01

The western U.S. receives precipitation predominantly during the cold season when storms approach from the Pacific Ocean. The snowpack that accumulates during winter storms provides about 70-90% of water supply for the region. Understanding and modeling the fundamental processes that govern the large precipitation variability and extremes in the western U.S. is a critical test for the ability of climate models to predict the regional water cycle, including floods and droughts. Two elements of significant importance in predicting precipitation variability in the western U.S. are atmospheric rivers and aerosols. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of enhanced water vapor associated with the warm sector of extratropical cyclones over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Because of the large lower-tropospheric water vapor content, strong atmospheric winds and neutral moist static stability, some ARs can produce heavy precipitation by orographic enhancement during landfall on the U.S. West Coast. While ARs are responsible for a large fraction of heavy precipitation in that region during winter, much of the rest of the orographic precipitation occurs in post-frontal clouds, which are typically quite shallow, with tops just high enough to pass the mountain barrier. Such clouds are inherently quite susceptible to aerosol effects on both warm rain and ice precipitation-forming processes.

Reproducibility of summertime diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.

2015-12-01

Reproducibility of diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs were evaluated, in comparison with station data (NCDC-9813) and satellite data (GSMaP-V5). We first calculated diurnal cycles by averaging precipitation at each local solar time (LST) in June-July-August during 1981-2000 over the continent of northern Eurasia (0-180E, 45-90N). Then we examined occurrence time of maximum precipitation and a contribution of diurnally varying precipitation to the total precipitation.The contribution of diurnal precipitation was about 21% in both NCDC-9813 and GSMaP-V5. The maximum precipitation occurred at 18LST in NCDC-9813 but 16LST in GSMaP-V5, indicating some uncertainties even in the observational datasets. The diurnal contribution of the CMIP5 models varied largely from 11% to 62%, and their timing of the precipitation maximum ranged from 11LST to 20LST. Interestingly, the contribution and the timing had strong negative correlation of -0.65. The models with larger diurnal precipitation showed precipitation maximum earlier around noon. Next, we compared sensitivity of precipitation to surface temperature and tropospheric humidity between 5 models with large diurnal precipitation (LDMs) and 5 models with small diurnal precipitation (SDMs). Precipitation in LDMs showed high sensitivity to surface temperature, indicating its close relationship with local instability. On the other hand, synoptic disturbances were more active in SDMs with a dominant role of the large scale condensation, and precipitation in SDMs was more related with tropospheric moisture. Therefore, the relative importance of the local instability and the synoptic disturbances was suggested to be an important factor in determining the contribution and timing of the diurnal precipitation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

Science.gov (United States)

Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

2016-04-01

Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

Numerical Simulation of Airfoil Aerodynamic Penalties and Mechanisms in Heavy Rain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenlong Wu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Numerical simulations that are conducted on a transport-type airfoil, NACA 64-210, at a Reynolds number of 2.6×106 and LWC of 25 g/m3 explore the aerodynamic penalties and mechanisms that affect airfoil performance in heavy rain conditions. Our simulation results agree well with the experimental data and show significant aerodynamic penalties for the airfoil in heavy rain. The maximum percentage decrease in CL is reached by 13.2% and the maximum percentage increase in CD by 47.6%. Performance degradation in heavy rain at low angles of attack is emulated by an originally creative boundary-layer-tripped technique near the leading edge. Numerical flow visualization technique is used to show premature boundary-layer separation at high angles of attack and the particulate trajectories at various angles of attack. A mathematic model is established to qualitatively study the water film effect on the airfoil geometric changes. All above efforts indicate that two primary mechanisms are accountable for the airfoil aerodynamic penalties. One is to cause premature boundary-layer transition at low AOA and separation at high AOA. The other occurs at times scales consistent with the water film layer, which is thought to alter the airfoil geometry and increase the mass effectively.

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Mengjiao; Feng, Jinqin; Li, Zhanqing; Sun, Ruiyu; Hou, Yu-Tai; Zhu, Yuejian; Wan, Bingcheng; Guo, Jianping; Cribb, Maureen

2017-11-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 %) and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively) from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m-2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and invigorate warm-base mixed

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Jiang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 % and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE, and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m−2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and

Simulating space-time uncertainty in continental-scale gridded precipitation fields for agrometeorological modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wit, de A.J.W.; Bruin, de S.

2006-01-01

Previous analyses of the effects of uncertainty in precipitation fields on the output of EU Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) demonstrated that the influence on simulated crop yield was limited at national scale, but considerable at local and regional scales. We aim to propagate uncertainty due

Simulation of Chamber Transport for Heavy-Ion-Fusion Drivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharp, W.M.; Callahan, D.A.; Tabak, M.; Yu, S.S.; Peterson, P.F.; Rose, D.V.; Welch, D.R.

2003-01-01

The heavy-ion fusion (HIF) community recently developed a power-plant design that meets the various requirements of accelerators, final focus, chamber transport, and targets. The point design is intended to minimize physics risk and is certainly not optimal for the cost of electricity. Recent chamber-transport simulations, however, indicate that changes in the beam ion species, the convergence angle, and the emittance might allow more-economical designs

Chamber-transport simulation results for heavy-ion fusion drivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharp, W M; Callahan, D A; Tabak, M; Yu, S S; Peterson, P F; Rose, D V; Welch, D R

2004-01-01

The heavy-ion fusion (HIF) community recently developed a power-plant design that meets the various requirements of accelerators, final focus, chamber transport, and targets. The point design is intended to minimize physics risk and is certainly not optimal for the cost of electricity. Recent chamber-transport simulations, however, indicate that changes in the beam ion species, the convergence angle, and the emittance might allow more-economical designs

SIMULATION OF CHAMBER TRANSPORT FOR HEAVY-ION FUSION DRIVERS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharp, W M; Callahan, D A; Tabak, M; Yu, S S; Peterson, P F; Rose, D V; Welch, D R

2004-01-01

The heavy-ion fusion (HIF) community recently developed a power-plant design that meets the various requirements of accelerators, final focus, chamber transport, and targets. The point design is intended to minimize physics risk and is certainly not optimal for the cost of electricity. Recent chamber-transport simulations, however, indicate that changes in the beam ion species, the convergence angle, and the emittance might allow more-economical designs

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Akio KITOH; Masahiro HOSAKA; Yukimasa ADACHI; Kenji KAMIGUCHI

2005-01-01

Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,which may be related with an El Ni(n)o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipit ation contrast more in the future.

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Alan K.; Avolio, Meghan L.; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J.W.; Collins, Scott L.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J.; Hoover, David L.; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E.; Phillips, Richard P.; Post, Alison K.; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D.

2017-01-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based

Using rainfall simulations to understand the relationship between precipitation, soil crust and infiltration in four agricultural soils

Science.gov (United States)

Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Alastrué, Juan; Moret-Fernández, David; Beguería, Santiago; López, Mariví; Navas, Ana

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out in order to study soil crust formation and its relation with soil infiltration parameters—sorptivity (S) and hydraulic conductivity (K)—on four common agricultural soils with contrasted properties; namely, Cambisol, Gypsisol, Solonchak, and Solonetz. Three different rainfall simulations, replicated three times each of them, were performed over the soils. Prior to rainfall simulations all soils were mechanically tilled with a rototiller to create similar soil surface conditions and homogeneous soils. Rainfall simulation parameters were monitored in real time by a Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor, allowing a complete characterization of simulated rainfall microphysics (drop size and velocity distributions) and integrated variables (accumulated rainfall, intensity and kinetic energy). Once soils dried after the simulations, soil penetration resistance was measured and soil hydraulic parameters, S and K, were estimated using the disc infiltrometry technique. There was little variation in rainfall parameters among simulations. Mean intensity and mean median diameter (D50) varied in simulations 1 ( 0.5 bar), 2 ( 0.8 bar) and 3 ( 1.2 bar) from 26.5 mm h-1 and 0.43 mm (s1) to 40.5 mm h-1 and 0.54 mm (s2) and 41.1 mm h-1 and 0.56 mm for (s3), respectively. Crust formation by soil was explained by D50 and subsequently by the total precipitation amount and the percentage of silt and clay in soil, being Cambisol and Gypsisol the soils that showed more increase in penetration resistance by simulation. All soils showed similar S values by simulations which were explained by rainfall intensity. Different patterns of K were shown by the four soils, which were explained by the combined effect of D50 and intensity, together with soil physico-chemical properties. This study highlights the importance of monitoring all precipitation parameters to determine their effect on different soil processes.

WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

2017-07-01

An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2015-04-01

Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

Non-Newtonian Flow Characteristics of Heavy Oil in the Bohai Bay Oilfield: Experimental and Simulation Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiankang Xin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper, physical experiments and numerical simulations were applied to systematically investigate the non-Newtonian flow characteristics of heavy oil in porous media. Rheological experiments were carried out to determine the rheology of heavy oil. Threshold pressure gradient (TPG measurement experiments performed by a new micro-flow method and flow experiments were conducted to study the effect of viscosity, permeability and mobility on the flow characteristics of heavy oil. An in-house developed novel simulator considering the non-Newtonian flow was designed based on the experimental investigations. The results from the physical experiments indicated that heavy oil was a Bingham fluid with non-Newtonian flow characteristics, and its viscosity-temperature relationship conformed to the Arrhenius equation. Its viscosity decreased with an increase in temperature and a decrease in asphaltene content. The TPG measurement experiments was impacted by the flow rate, and its critical flow rate was 0.003 mL/min. The TPG decreased as the viscosity decreased or the permeability increased and had a power-law relationship with mobility. In addition, the critical viscosity had a range of 42–54 mPa∙s, above which the TPG existed for a given permeability. The validation of the designed simulator was positive and acceptable when compared to the simulation results run in ECLIPSE V2013.1 and Computer Modelling Group (CMG V2012 software as well as when compared to the results obtained during physical experiments. The difference between 0.0005 and 0.0750 MPa/m in the TPG showed a decrease of 11.55% in the oil recovery based on the simulation results, which demonstrated the largely adverse impact the TPG had on heavy oil production.

Application of the Forhyd model to simulate net precipitation and intercepted water evaporation in forest canopies in Colombian amazonia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tellez Guio, Patricia; Boschell Villamarin, Francisco; Tobon Marin, Conrado

2005-01-01

Hydrologic simulation is a technique, which allows us to understand the relationships among hydrological, biological and ecological variables in an ecosystem. In this research, the FORHYD model is used to simulate the net precipitation and the water intercepted by the canopies of a mature forest, a 30-year old secondary forest, an 18-year old secondary forest, a 5-year old secondary forest, and a shifting cultivation plot, all located in Colombia's amazonia. The model calculates the water budget of the canopy by using the precipitation rates, canopy drainage and evaporation of the water intercepted by the canopy. This paper is the second one in a series of papers reporting the results of the research on the simulation of the hydrological fluxes in three different land use types of Colombian amazonia. The research was carried out in middle Caqueta of Colombian amazonia (northwest amazon basin). The FORHYD model was calibrated and validated by using field observations of the climate, net precipitation (PT), thoughtful (TH) and stem flow (ST), which were monitored during a period of 15 months from March 2001 to June 2002. These observations were used as both input variables and diagnostic variables to probe the model's precision to simulate field observations. Results showed that FORHYD simulates with a good precision the net precipitation and the evaporation of the water intercepted by the canopy. However, the model's precision depends on a good parameterization, which in turn depends on a good database of field observations. The model is a good tool for simulating the hydrological cycle and can be used to simulate critical scenarios of climate variability

Releasing characteristics and fate of heavy metals from phytoremediation crop residues during anaerobic digestion.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jongkeun; Park, Ki Young; Cho, Jinwoo; Kim, Jae Young

2018-01-01

In this study, lab-scale batch tests were conducted to investigate releasing characteristics of heavy metals according to degradation of heavy metal containing biomass. The fate of heavy metals after released from biomass was also determined through adsorption tests and Visual MINTEQ simulation. According to the anaerobic batch test results as well as volatile solids and carbon balance analyses, maximum of 60% by wt. of biomass was degraded. During the anaerobic biodegradation, among Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, only Cu and Zn were observed in soluble form (approximately 40% by wt. of input mass). The discrepancy between degradation ratio of biomass and ratio of released heavy metals mass from biomass was observed. It seems that this discordance was caused by the fate (i.e., precipitated with sulfur/hydroxide or adsorbed onto sorbents) of each heavy metal types in solution after being released from biomass. Thus, releasing characteristics and fate of heavy metal should be considered carefully to predict stability of anaerobic digestion process for heavy metal-containing biomass. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electron-Cloud Simulation and Theory for High-Current Heavy-Ion Beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, R; Friedman, A; Lund, S; Molvik, A; Lee, E; Azevedo, T; Vay, J; Stoltz, P; Veitzer, S

2004-01-01

Stray electrons can arise in positive-ion accelerators for heavy ion fusion or other applications as a result of ionization of ambient gas or gas released from walls due to halo-ion impact, or as a result of secondary- electron emission. We summarize the distinguishing features of electron cloud issues in heavy-ion-fusion accelerators and a plan for developing a self-consistent simulation capability for heavy-ion beams and electron clouds. We also present results from several ingredients in this capability: (1) We calculate the electron cloud produced by electron desorption from computed beam-ion loss, which illustrates the importance of retaining ion reflection at the walls. (2) We simulate of the effect of specified electron cloud distributions on ion beam dynamics. We consider here electron distributions with axially varying density, centroid location, or radial shape, and examine both random and sinusoidally varying perturbations. We find that amplitude variations are most effective in spoiling ion beam quality, though for sinusoidal variations which match the natural ion beam centroid oscillation or breathing mode frequencies, the centroid and shape perturbations can also have significant impact. We identify an instability associated with a resonance between the beam-envelope ''breathing'' mode and the electron perturbation. We estimate its growth rate, which is moderate (compared to the reciprocal of a typical pulse duration). One conclusion from this study is that heavy-ion beams are surprisingly robust to electron clouds, compared to a priori expectations. (3) We report first results from a long-timestep algorithm for electron dynamics, which holds promise for efficient simultaneous solution of electron and ion dynamics

Electron-cloud simulation and theory for high-current heavy-ion beams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. H. Cohen

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Stray electrons can arise in positive-ion accelerators for heavy-ion fusion or other applications as a result of ionization of ambient gas or gas released from walls due to halo-ion impact, or as a result of secondary-electron emission. We summarize the distinguishing features of electron-cloud issues in heavy-ion-fusion accelerators and a plan for developing a self-consistent simulation capability for heavy-ion beams and electron clouds (also applicable to other accelerators. We also present results from several ingredients in this capability. (1 We calculate the electron cloud produced by electron desorption from computed beam-ion loss, which illustrates the importance of retaining ion reflection at the walls. (2 We simulate the effect of specified electron-cloud distributions on ion beam dynamics. We consider here electron distributions with axially varying density, centroid location, or radial shape, and examine both random and sinusoidally varying perturbations. We find that amplitude variations are most effective in spoiling ion beam quality, though for sinusoidal variations which match the natural ion beam centroid oscillation or breathing-mode frequencies, the centroid and shape perturbations can also have significant impact. We identify an instability associated with a resonance between the beam-envelope “breathing” mode and the electron perturbation. We estimate its growth rate, which is moderate (compared to the reciprocal of a typical pulse duration. One conclusion from this study is that heavy-ion beams are surprisingly robust to electron clouds, compared to a priori expectations. (3 We report first results from a long-time-step algorithm for electron dynamics, which holds promise for efficient simultaneous solution of electron and ion dynamics.

Monte Carlo simulation of heavy ion induced kinetic electron emission from an Al surface

CERN Document Server

Ohya, K

2002-01-01

A Monte Carlo simulation is performed in order to study heavy ion induced kinetic electron emission from an Al surface. In the simulation, excitation of conduction band electrons by the projectile ion and recoiling target atoms is treated on the basis of the partial wave expansion method, and the cascade multiplication process of the excited electrons is simulated as well as collision cascade of the recoiling target atoms. Experimental electron yields near conventional threshold energies of heavy ions are simulated by an assumption of a lowering in the apparent surface barrier for the electrons. The present calculation derives components for electron excitations by the projectile ion, the recoiling target atoms and the electron cascades, from the calculated total electron yield. The component from the recoiling target atoms increases with increasing projectile mass, whereas the component from the electron cascade decreases. Although the components from the projectile ion and the electron cascade increase with...

Atomistic simulation of the pinning of edge dislocations in Ni by Ni3Al precipitates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohler, Christopher; Kizler, Peter; Schmauder, Siegfried

2005-01-01

Classical molecular dynamics simulations of the interaction of edge dislocations in Ni with chains of spherical Ni 3 Al precipitates are performed using EAM potentials. The order hardening is investigated at temperature T=0 -bar K by determining the critical resolved shear stresses (CRSSs) for a superdislocation that is dissociated into four partial dislocations. The CRSS is computed as a function of the radius and the distance of the precipitates. It is found that for precipitates with a diameter smaller than the dissociation width of perfect edge dislocation in Ni, the CRSS of the trailing dislocation of the superdislocation is a fraction of about 0.4 of the CRSS of the leading dislocation

Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

First-principle Simulations of Heavy Fermion Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Ruanchen

Heavy fermion materials, one of the most challenging topics in condensed matter physics, pose a variety of interesting properties and have attracted extensive studies for decades. Although there has been great success in explaining many ground- state properties of solids, the well-known theoretical calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) in its popular local density approximation (LDA) fail to describe heavy fermion materials due to improper treatment of many-body correlation effects. Here with the implementations of dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) and the Gutzwiller variational method, the computational simulation of the heavy fermion materials is explored further and better compared with experimental data. In this dissertation, first, the theoretical background of DMFT and LDA+G methods is described in detail. The rest is the application of these techniques and is basically divided into two parts. First, the continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo (CT-QMC) method combined with DMFT is used to calculate and compare both the periodic Anderson model (PAM) and the Kondo lattice model (KLM). Different parameter sets of both models are connected by the Schrieffer-Wolff transformation. For spin and orbital degeneracy N = 2 case, a special particle-hole symmetric case of PAM at half-filling which always fixes one electron per impurity site is compared with the results of the KLM. We find a good mapping between PAM and KLM in the limit of large on-site Hubbard interaction U for different properties like self-energy, quasiparticle residue and susceptibility. This allows us to extract quasiparticle mass renormalizations for the f-electrons directly from KLM. The method is further applied to higher degenerate cases and to the realistic heavy fermion system CeRhIn5 in which the estimate of the Sommerfeld coefficient is proven to be close to the experimental value. Second, a series of Cerium based heavy fermion materials is studied using a combination of local

An Assessment of Mean Areal Precipitation Methods on Simulated Stream Flow: A SWAT Model Performance Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sean Zeiger

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Accurate mean areal precipitation (MAP estimates are essential input forcings for hydrologic models. However, the selection of the most accurate method to estimate MAP can be daunting because there are numerous methods to choose from (e.g., proximate gauge, direct weighted average, surface-fitting, and remotely sensed methods. Multiple methods (n = 19 were used to estimate MAP with precipitation data from 11 distributed monitoring sites, and 4 remotely sensed data sets. Each method was validated against the hydrologic model simulated stream flow using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. SWAT was validated using a split-site method and the observed stream flow data from five nested-scale gauging sites in a mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Cross-validation results showed the error associated with surface-fitting and remotely sensed methods ranging from −4.5 to −5.1%, and −9.8 to −14.7%, respectively. Split-site validation results showed the percent bias (PBIAS values that ranged from −4.5 to −160%. Second order polynomial functions especially overestimated precipitation and subsequent stream flow simulations (PBIAS = −160 in the headwaters. The results indicated that using an inverse-distance weighted, linear polynomial interpolation or multiquadric function method to estimate MAP may improve SWAT model simulations. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of spatially distributed observed hydroclimate data for precipitation and subsequent steam flow estimations. The MAP methods demonstrated in the current work can be used to reduce hydrologic model uncertainty caused by watershed physiographic differences.

End point control of an actinide precipitation reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muske, K.R.

1997-01-01

The actinide precipitation reactors in the nuclear materials processing facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory are used to remove actinides and other heavy metals from the effluent streams generated during the purification of plutonium. These effluent streams consist of hydrochloric acid solutions, ranging from one to five molar in concentration, in which actinides and other metals are dissolved. The actinides present are plutonium and americium. Typical actinide loadings range from one to five grams per liter. The most prevalent heavy metals are iron, chromium, and nickel that are due to stainless steel. Removal of these metals from solution is accomplished by hydroxide precipitation during the neutralization of the effluent. An end point control algorithm for the semi-batch actinide precipitation reactors at Los Alamos National Laboratory is described. The algorithm is based on an equilibrium solubility model of the chemical species in solution. This model is used to predict the amount of base hydroxide necessary to reach the end point of the actinide precipitation reaction. The model parameters are updated by on-line pH measurements

Heavy Vehicle Simulator aided evaluation of overlays on pavements with active cracks

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Viljoen, AW

1987-07-01

Full Text Available their effects by means of field data from actual pavements. The South African Heavy Simulator was also used to evaluate a variety of conventional and innovative asphaltic overlays on a severely cracked concrete pavement of which the mechanisms and extent...

Numerical Simulation of Tuff Dissolution and Precipitation Experiments: Validation of Thermal-Hydrologic-Chemical (THC) Coupled-Process Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Dobson, P. F.; Kneafsey, T. J.

2001-12-01

As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate THC effects on flow in fractured media, we performed a laboratory experiment and numerical simulations to investigate mineral dissolution and precipitation. To replicate mineral dissolution by condensate in fractured tuff, deionized water equilibrated with carbon dioxide was flowed for 1,500 hours through crushed Yucca Mountain tuff at 94° C. The reacted water was collected and sampled for major dissolved species, total alkalinity, electrical conductivity, and pH. The resulting steady-state fluid composition had a total dissolved solids content of about 140 mg/L; silica was the dominant dissolved constituent. A portion of the steady-state reacted water was flowed at 10.8 mL/hr into a 31.7-cm tall, 16.2-cm wide vertically oriented planar fracture with a hydraulic aperture of 31 microns in a block of welded Topopah Spring tuff that was maintained at 80° C at the top and 130° C at the bottom. The fracture began to seal within five days. A 1-D plug-flow model using the TOUGHREACT code developed at Berkeley Lab was used to simulate mineral dissolution, and a 2-D model was developed to simulate the flow of mineralized water through a planar fracture, where boiling conditions led to mineral precipitation. Predicted concentrations of the major dissolved constituents for the tuff dissolution were within a factor of 2 of the measured average steady-state compositions. The fracture-plugging simulations result in the precipitation of amorphous silica at the base of the boiling front, leading to a hundred-fold decrease in fracture permeability in less than 6 days, consistent with the laboratory experiment. These results help validate the use of the TOUGHREACT code for THC modeling of the Yucca Mountain system. The experiment and simulations indicate that boiling and concomitant precipitation of amorphous silica could cause significant reductions in fracture porosity and permeability on a local scale. The TOUGHREACT code will be used

Numerical simulation of heavy ion charge generation and collection dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dussault, H.; Howard, J.W. Jr.; Block, R.C.; Stapor, W.J.; Knudson, A.R.

1993-01-01

This paper describes a complete simulation approach to investigating the physics of heavy-ion charge generation and collection during a single event transient in a PN diode. The simulations explore the effects of different ion track models, applied biases, background dopings, and LET on the transient responses of a PN diode. The simulation results show that ion track structure and charge collection via diffusion-dominated processes play important roles in determining device transient responses. The simulations show no evidence of rapid charge collection in excess of that deposited in the device depletion region in typical funneling time frames (i.e., by time to peak current or in less than 500 ps). Further, the simulations clearly show that the device transient responses are not simple functions of the ion's incident LET. The simulation results imply that future studies and experiments should consider the effects of ion track structure in addition to LET and extend transient charge collection times to insure that reported charge collection efficiencies include diffusion-dominated collection processes

Simulated effects of a seasonal precipitation change on the vegetation in tropical Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. S. Gritti

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Pollen data collected in Africa at high (Kuruyange, valley swamp, Burundi and low altitude (Victoria, lake, Uganda; Ngamakala, pond, Congo showed that after 6 ky before present (BP, pollen of deciduous trees increase their relative percentage, suggesting thus the reduction of the annual amount of precipitation and/or an increase of in the length of the dry season. Until now, pollen-climate transfer functions only investigated mean annual precipitation, due to the absence of modern pollen-assemblage analogs under diversified precipitation regimes. Hence these functions omit the potential effect of a change in precipitation seasonality modifying thus the length of the dry season. In the present study, we use an equilibrium biosphere model (i.e. BIOME3.5 to estimate the sensitivity of equatorial African vegetation, at specific sites, to such changes. Climatic scenarios, differing only in the monthly distribution of the current annual amount of precipitation, are examined at the above three locations in equatorial Africa. Soil characteristics, monthly temperatures and cloudiness are kept constant at their present-day values. Good agreement is shown between model simulations and current biomes assemblages, as inferred from pollen data. To date, the increase of the deciduous forest component in the palaeodata around 6 ky BP has been interpreted as the beginning of a drier climate period. However, our results demonstrate that a change in the seasonal distribution of precipitation could also induce the observed changes in vegetation types. This study confirms the importance of taking into account seasonal changes in the hydrological balance. Palaeoecologists can greatly benefit from the use of dynamic process based vegetation models to acccount for modification of the length of the dry season when they wish to reconstruct vegetation composition or to infer quantitative climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation, from pollen or vegetation

Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei

2018-02-01

Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

Atomistic simulations of dislocation-precipitate interactions emphasize importance of cross-slip

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, C.V.; Mateos, A.J.; Warner, D.H.

2011-01-01

This work examines the interaction of screw dislocations with Guinier-Preston (GP) zones using atomistic simulations. Both Orowan looping and cross-slip mechanisms are found to control the interactions. Cross-slip, occurring both at zero and finite temperatures, is found to either significantly reduce or enhance precipitate strengthening, depending upon the orientation of the dislocation-GP zone interaction. The orientation dependence, and its dependence on temperature, provides a micromechanical explanation for the experiments of Muraishi et al. (Philos. Mag. A 82 (2002) 2755).

Urbanization effect on precipitation over the Pearl River Delta based on CMORPH data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheng Chen

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Based on the satellite data from the Climate Prediction Center morphing (CMORPH at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the effects of urbanization on precipitation were assessed over the Pearl River Delta (PRD metropolitan regions of China. CMORPH data well estimates the precipitation features over the PRD. Compared to the surrounding rural areas, the PRD urban areas experience fewer and shorter precipitation events with a lower precipitation frequency (ratio of rainy hours, about 3 days per year less; however, short-duration heavy rain events play a more significant role over the PRD urban areas. Afternoon precipitation is much more pronounced over the PRD urban areas than the surrounding rural areas, which is probably because of the increase in short-duration heavy rain over urban areas.

Hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Mangen; Chen, Xing; Cheng, Chad Shouquan

2016-01-01

Precipitation extremes play a key role in flooding risks over the Huaihe River Basin, which is important to understand their hydrological impacts. Based on observed daily precipitation and streamflow data from 1958 to 2009, eight precipitation indices and three streamflow indices were calculated for the study of hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the wet condition intensified in the summer wet season and the drought condition was getting worse in the autumn dry season in the later years of the past 50 years. The river basin had experienced higher heavy rainfall-related flooding risks in summer and more severe drought in autumn in the later of the period. The extreme precipitation events or consecutive heavy rain day events led to the substantial increases in streamflow extremes, which are the main causes of frequent floods in the Huaihe River Basin. The large inter-annual variation of precipitation anomalies in the upper and central Huaihe River Basin are the major contributor for the regional frequent floods and droughts.

Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

Science.gov (United States)

Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

2014-05-01

Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30

Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Boxel, John H

2001-01-01

Precipitation is one of the most, if not the most important climate parameter In most studies on climate change the emphasis is on temperature and sea level rise. Often too little attention is given to precipitation. For a large part this is due to the large spatial en temporal variability of precipitation, which makes the detection of changes difficult. This paper describes methods to detect changes in precipitation. In order to arrive at statistically significant changes one must use long time series and spatial averages containing the information from several stations. In the Netherlands the average yearly precipitation increased by 11% during the 20th century .In the temperate latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere (40-60QN) the average increase was about 7% over the 20th century and the globally averaged precipitation increased by about 3%. During the 20th century 38% of the land surface of the earth became wetter, 42% experienced little change (less than 5% change) and 20% became dryer. More important than the average precipitation is the occurrence of extremes. In the Netherlands there is a tendency to more extreme precipitations, whereas the occurrence of relatively dry months has not changed. Also in many other countries increases in heavy precipitation events are observed. All climate models predict a further increase of mean global precipitation if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. Nevertheless some areas get dryer, others have little change and consequently there are also areas where the increase is much more than the global average. On a regional scale however there are large differences between the models. Climate models do not yet provide adequate information on changes in extreme precipitations

Accurate numerical simulation of reaction-diffusion processes for heavy oil recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Govind, P.A.; Srinivasan, S. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, TX (United States)]|[Texas Univ., Austin, TX (United States)

2008-10-15

This study evaluated a reaction-diffusion simulation tool designed to analyze the displacement of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) in a simultaneous injection of carbon dioxide and elemental sodium in a heavy oil reservoir. Sodium was used due to the exothermic reaction of sodium with in situ that occurs when heat is used to reduce oil viscosity. The process also results in the formation of sodium hydroxide that reduces interfacial tension at the bitumen interface. A commercial simulation tool was used to model the sodium transport mechanism to the reaction interface through diffusion as well as the reaction zone's subsequent displacement. The aim of the study was to verify if the in situ reaction was able to generate sufficient heat to reduce oil viscosity and improve the displacement of the heavy oil. The study also assessed the accuracy of the reaction front simulation tool, in which an alternate method was used to model the propagation front as a moving heat source. The sensitivity of the simulation results were then evaluated in relation to the diffusion coefficient in order to understand the scaling characteristics of the reaction-diffusion zone. A pore-scale simulation was then up-scaled to grid blocks. Results of the study showed that when sodium suspended in liquid CO{sub 2} is injected into reservoirs, it diffuses through the carrier phase and interacts with water. A random walk diffusion algorithm with reactive dissipation was implemented to more accurately characterize reaction and diffusion processes. It was concluded that the algorithm modelled physical dispersion while neglecting the effect of numerical dispersion. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 24 figs.

Impact of Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Simulations Using WRF Model: Sensitivity of Assimilation Results to Background Error Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Rakesh, V.; Kantharao, B.

2017-03-01

Data assimilation is considered as one of the effective tools for improving forecast skill of mesoscale models. However, for optimum utilization and effective assimilation of observations, many factors need to be taken into account while designing data assimilation methodology. One of the critical components that determines the amount and propagation observation information into the analysis, is model background error statistics (BES). The objective of this study is to quantify how BES in data assimilation impacts on simulation of heavy rainfall events over a southern state in India, Karnataka. Simulations of 40 heavy rainfall events were carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting Model with and without data assimilation. The assimilation experiments were conducted using global and regional BES while the experiment with no assimilation was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of data assimilation. The simulated rainfall is verified against high-resolution rain-gage observations over Karnataka. Statistical evaluation using several accuracy and skill measures shows that data assimilation has improved the heavy rainfall simulation. Our results showed that the experiment using regional BES outperformed the one which used global BES. Critical thermo-dynamic variables conducive for heavy rainfall like convective available potential energy simulated using regional BES is more realistic compared to global BES. It is pointed out that these results have important practical implications in design of forecast platforms while decision-making during extreme weather events

Asymmetric Responses of Primary Productivity to Altered Precipitation Simulated by Land Surface Models across Three Long-term Grassland Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, D.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.; Knapp, A.; Wilcox, K.; Bahn, M.; Smith, M. D.; Ito, A.; Arneth, A.; Harper, A. B.; Ukkola, A.; Paschalis, A.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Reick, C. H.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Reinthaler, D.; Chen, G.; Tian, H.; Helene, G.; Zscheischler, J.; Mao, J.; Ingrisch, J.; Nabel, J.; Pongratz, J.; Boysen, L.; Kautz, M.; Schmitt, M.; Krohn, M.; Zeng, N.; Meir, P.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, Q.; Hasibeder, R.; Vicca, S.; Sippel, S.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Fatichi, S.; Sitch, S.; Shi, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.; Liu, Y.; Piao, S.

2017-12-01

Changes in precipitation variability including the occurrence of extreme events strongly influence plant growth in grasslands. Field measurements of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest a positive asymmetric response with wet years resulting in ANPP gains larger than ANPP declines in dry years. Whether land surface models used for historical simulations and future projections of the coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable to simulate such non-symmetrical ANPP responses remains an important open research question. In this study, we evaluate the simulated responses of grassland primary productivity to altered precipitation with fourteen land surface models at the three sites of Colorado Shortgrass Steppe (SGS), Konza prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU) along a rainfall gradient from dry to wet. Our results suggest that: (i) Gross primary production (GPP), NPP, ANPP and belowground NPP (BNPP) show nonlinear response curves (concave-down) in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. In contrast across the sites, primary production increases and then saturates along increasing precipitation with a flattening at the wetter site. (ii) Slopes of spatial relationships between modeled primary production and precipitation are steeper than the temporal slopes (obtained from inter-annual variations). (iii) Asymmetric responses under nominal precipitation range with modeled inter-annual primary production show large uncertainties, and model-ensemble median generally suggests negative asymmetry (greater declines in dry years than increases in wet years) across the three sites. (iv) Primary production at the drier site is predicted to more sensitive to precipitation compared to wetter site, and median sensitivity consistently indicates greater negative impacts of reduced precipitation than positive effects of increased precipitation under extreme conditions. This study implies that most models

Cerium oxalate precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, T.P.

1987-02-01

Cerium, a nonradioactive, common stand-in for plutonium in development work, has been used to simulate several plutonium precipitation processes at the Savannah River Laboratory. There are similarities between the plutonium trifluoride and the cerium oxalate precipitations in particle size and extent of plating, but not particle morphology. The equilibrium solubility, precipitation kinetics, particle size, extent of plating, and dissolution characteristics of cerium oxalate have been investigated. Interpretations of particle size and plating based on precipitation kinetics (i.e., nucleation and crystal growth) are presented. 16 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs

Molecular dynamics simulations of ion range profiles for heavy ions in light targets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lan, C. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Peking University, 100871 (China); Xue, J.M. [State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Peking University, 100871 (China); Zhang, Y., E-mail: Zhangy1@ornl.gov [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Materials Science and Technology Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Morris, J.R. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Materials Science and Technology Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Zhu, Z. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.G.; Yan, S. [State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Peking University, 100871 (China); Weber, W.J. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Materials Science and Technology Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States)

2012-09-01

The determination of stopping powers for slow heavy ions in targets containing light elements is important to accurately describe ion-solid interactions, evaluate ion irradiation effects and predict ion ranges for device fabrication and nuclear applications. Recently, discrepancies of up to 40% between the experimental results and SRIM (Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter) predictions of ion ranges for heavy ions with medium and low energies (<{approx}25 keV/nucleon) in light elemental targets have been reported. The longer experimental ion ranges indicate that the stopping powers used in the SRIM code are overestimated. Here, a molecular dynamics simulation scheme is developed to calculate the ion ranges of heavy ions in light elemental targets. Electronic stopping powers generated from both a reciprocity approach and the SRIM code are used to investigate the influence of electronic stopping on ion range profiles. The ion range profiles for Au and Pb ions in SiC and Er ions in Si, with energies between 20 and 5250 keV, are simulated. The simulation results show that the depth profiles of implanted ions are deeper and in better agreement with the experiments when using the electronic stopping power values derived from the reciprocity approach. These results indicate that the origin of the discrepancy in ion ranges between experimental results and SRIM predictions in the low energy region may be an overestimation of the electronic stopping powers used in SRIM.

Performance of an alpha-vane and pitot tube in simulated heavy rain environment

Science.gov (United States)

Luers, J. K.; Fiscus, I. B.

1985-01-01

Experimental tests were conducted in the UDRI Environmental Wind/Rain Tunnel to establish the performance of an alpha-vane, that measures angle of attack, in a simulated heavy rain environment. The tests consisted of emersing the alpha-vane in an airstream with a concurrent water spray penetrating vertically through the airstream. The direction of the spray was varied to make an angle of 5.8 to 18 deg with the airstream direction in order to simulate the conditions that occur when an aircraft lands in a heavy rain environment. Rainrates simulated varied from 1000 to 1200 mm/hr which are the most severe ever expected to be encountered by an aircraft over even a 30 second period. Tunnel airspeeds ranged from 85 to 125 miles per hour. The results showed that even the most severe rainrates produced a misalignment in the alpha-vane of only 1 deg away from the airstream direction. Thus for normal rain conditions experienced by landing aircraft no significant deterioration in alpha-vane performance is expected.

The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Cortès, Maria; Turco, Marco; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria Carmen

2018-03-01

Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies.

Improvement of Hydrological Simulations by Applying Daily Precipitation Interpolation Schemes in Meso-Scale Catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mateusz Szcześniak

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Ground-based precipitation data are still the dominant input type for hydrological models. Spatial variability in precipitation can be represented by spatially interpolating gauge data using various techniques. In this study, the effect of daily precipitation interpolation methods on discharge simulations using the semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model over a 30-year period is examined. The study was carried out in 11 meso-scale (119–3935 km2 sub-catchments lying in the Sulejów reservoir catchment in central Poland. Four methods were tested: the default SWAT method (Def based on the Nearest Neighbour technique, Thiessen Polygons (TP, Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW and Ordinary Kriging (OK. =The evaluation of methods was performed using a semi-automated calibration program SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Procedure Version 2 with two objective functions: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and the adjusted R2 coefficient (bR2. The results show that: (1 the most complex OK method outperformed other methods in terms of NSE; and (2 OK, IDW, and TP outperformed Def in terms of bR2. The median difference in daily/monthly NSE between OK and Def/TP/IDW calculated across all catchments ranged between 0.05 and 0.15, while the median difference between TP/IDW/OK and Def ranged between 0.05 and 0.07. The differences between pairs of interpolation methods were, however, spatially variable and a part of this variability was attributed to catchment properties: catchments characterised by low station density and low coefficient of variation of daily flows experienced more pronounced improvement resulting from using interpolation methods. Methods providing higher precipitation estimates often resulted in a better model performance. The implication from this study is that appropriate consideration of spatial precipitation variability (often neglected by model users that can be achieved using relatively simple interpolation methods can

Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

Refinement of the daily precipitation simulated by the CMIP5 models over the north of the Northeast of Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gyrlene Aparecida Mendes da Silva

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The ability of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN and the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR in reproducing the area-average observed daily precipitation during the rainy season (Feb-Mar-Apr over the north of the Northeast of Brazil (NEB is examined. For the present climate of Dec-Jan-Feb from 1963 to 2003 period these statistical models are developed and validated using the observed daily precipitation and simulated from the historical outputs of 4 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. The simulations from all the models during DJF and FMA seasons show an anomalous intensification of the ITCZ and southward displacement in comparison with the climatology. Correlations of 0.54, 0.66 and 0.66 are found between the simulated daily precipitation of the CCSM4, GFDL_ESM2M and MIROC_ESM models during DJF season and the observed values during FMA season. Only the CCSM4 model displays a slightly reasonable agreement with the observations. A comparison between the statistical downscaling using the nonlinear (ANN and linear model (MLR to identify the one most suitable for the analysis of daily precipitation was made. The ANN technique provides more ability to predict the present climate when compared to MLR technique. Based on this result, we examined the accuracy of the ANN model in project the changes for the future climate period from 2055 to 2095 over the same study region. For instance, a comparison between the daily precipitation changes projected indirectly from the ANN during Feb-Mar-Apr with those projected directly from the CMIP5 models forced by RCP 8.5 scenario is made. The results suggest that ANN model weights the CMIP5 projections according to the each model ability in simulating the present climate (and its variability. In others, the ANN model is a potentially promising approach to use as a complementary tool to improvement of the seasonal numerical simulations.

Modeling of Jovian Auroral Polar Ion and Proton Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Houston, S. J.; Ozak, N. O.; Cravens, T.; Schultz, D. R.; Mauk, B.; Haggerty, D. K.; Young, J. T.

2017-12-01

Auroral particle precipitation dominates the chemical and physical environment of the upper atmospheres and ionospheres of the outer planets. Precipitation of energetic electrons from the middle magnetosphere is responsible for the main auroral oval at Jupiter, but energetic electron, proton, and ion precipitation take place in the polar caps. At least some of the ion precipitation is associated with soft X-ray emission with about 1 GW of power. Theoretical modeling has demonstrated that the incident sulfur and oxygen ion energies must exceed about 0.5 MeV/nucleon (u) in order to produce the measured X-ray emission. In this work we present a model of the transport of magnetospheric oxygen ions as they precipitate into Jupiter's polar atmosphere. We have revised and updated the hybrid Monte Carlo model originally developed by Ozak et al., 2010 to model the Jovian X-ray aurora. We now simulate a wider range of incident oxygen ion energies (10 keV/u - 5 MeV/u) and update the collision cross-sections to model the ionization of the atmospheric neutrals. The polar cap location of the emission and magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling both indicate the associated field-aligned currents must originate near the magnetopause or perhaps the distant tail. Secondary electrons produced in the upper atmosphere by ion precipitation could be accelerated upward to relativistic energies due to the same field-aligned potentials responsible for the downward ion acceleration. To further explore this, we simulate the effect of the secondary electrons generated from the heavy ion precipitation. We use a two-stream transport model that computes the secondary electron fluxes, their escape from the atmosphere, and characterization of the H2 Lyman-Werner band emission, including a predicted observable spectrum with the associated color ratio. Our model predicts that escaping electrons have an energy range from 1 eV to 6 keV, H2 band emission rates produced are on the order of 75 kR for an input

Monte Carlo simulation study of a selforganisation process leading to ordered precipitate structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zirkelbach, F.; Haeberlen, M.; Lindner, J.K.N.; Stritzker, B.

2007-01-01

Periodically arranged, selforganised, nanometric, amorphous precipitates have been observed after high-fluence ion implantations into solids for a number of ion/target combinations at certain implantation conditions. A model describing the ordering process based on compressive stress exerted by the amorphous inclusions as a result of the density change upon amorphisation is introduced. A Monte Carlo simulation code, which focuses on high-fluence carbon implantations into silicon, is able to reproduce experimentally observed nanolamella distributions as well as the formation of continuous amorphous layers. By means of simulation, the selforganisation process becomes traceable and detailed information about the compositional and structural state during the ordering process is obtained. Based on simulation results, a recipe is proposed for producing broad distributions of ordered lamellar structures

Atmospheric tides and periodic variations in the precipitation field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cevolani, G.; Bacci, P.; Bonelli, P.; Isnardi, C.

1986-01-01

The analysis of daily precipitations data at many weather stations in Alpes and Po Valley gives evidence of a ''tidal'' influence from luni-solar gravitational fields. The tidal influence does not appear to be strictly constant with time, as the possible results of a modulation effect of luni-solar cycles having similar periods. Time variations of daily precipitation data as a function of some particular cycles show that gravitational tides effect heavy rainfalls more than mean precipitation values

A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - A Scandinavian perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, J. H.; Räinsänen, J.; Iversen, T.

2001-01-01

Four downscaling experiments of regional climate change for the Nordic countries have been conducted with three different regional climate models (RCMs). A short synthesis of the outcome of the suite of experiments is presented as an ensemble, reflecting the different driving atmosphere-ocean...... general circulation model (AOGCM) conditions, RCM model resolution and domain size, and choice of emission scenarios. This allows the sources of uncertainties in the projections to be assessed. At the same time analysis of the climate change signal for temperature and precipitation over the period 1990......-2050 reveals strong similarities. In particular, all experiments in the suite simulate changes in the precipitation distribution towards a higher frequency of heavy precipitation....

The Simulation of Precipitation Evolutions and Mechanical Properties in Friction Stir Welding with Post-Weld Heat Treatments

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Z.; Wan, Z. Y.; Lindgren, L.-E.; Tan, Z. J.; Zhou, X.

2017-12-01

A finite element model of friction stir welding capable of re-meshing is used to simulate the temperature variations. Re-meshing of the finite element model is used to maintain a fine mesh resolving the gradients of the solution. The Kampmann-Wagner numerical model for precipitation is then used to study the relation between friction stir welds with post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) and the changes in mechanical properties. Results indicate that the PWHT holding time and PWHT holding temperature need to be optimally designed to obtain FSW with better mechanical properties. Higher precipitate number with lower precipitate sizes gives higher strength in the stirring zone after PWHT. The coarsening of precipitates in HAZ are the main reason to hinder the improvement of mechanical property when PWHT is used.

Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

KAUST Repository

Naveau, Philippe

2016-04-09

In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

2018-01-01

Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

Immobilisation of heavy metal in cement-based solidification/stabilisation: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Q.Y.; Tyrer, M.; Hills, C.D.; Yang, X.M.; Carey, P.

2009-01-01

Heavy metal-bearing waste usually needs solidification/stabilization (s/s) prior to landfill to lower the leaching rate. Cement is the most adaptable binder currently available for the immobilisation of heavy metals. The selection of cements and operating parameters depends upon an understanding of chemistry of the system. This paper discusses interactions of heavy metals and cement phases in the solidification/stabilisation process. It provides a clarification of heavy metal effects on cement hydration. According to the decomposition rate of minerals, heavy metals accelerate the hydration of tricalcium silicate (C 3 S) and Portland cement, although they retard the precipitation of portlandite due to the reduction of pH resulted from hydrolyses of heavy metal ions. The chemical mechanism relevant to the accelerating effect of heavy metals is considered to be H + attacks on cement phases and the precipitation of calcium heavy metal double hydroxides, which consumes calcium ions and then promotes the decomposition of C 3 S. In this work, molecular models of calcium silicate hydrate gel are presented based on the examination of 29 Si solid-state magic angle spinning/nuclear magnetic resonance (MAS/NMR). This paper also reviews immobilisation mechanisms of heavy metals in hydrated cement matrices, focusing on the sorption, precipitation and chemical incorporation of cement hydration products. It is concluded that further research on the phase development during cement hydration in the presence of heavy metals and thermodynamic modelling is needed to improve effectiveness of cement-based s/s and extend this waste management technique

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Daquan; Hu Jingguo; Feng Guolin

2008-01-01

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains (above 25mm/day) in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978–1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country's average

Aluminum precipitation from Hanford DSSF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgen, D.; Frazier, P.; Staton, G.

1994-01-01

A series of pilot scale tests using simulated Double Shell Slurry Feed (DSSF) showed that well-settled aluminum precipitate can be produced in Hanford double shell tank (DST) high level waste by slow neutralization with carbon dioxide. This pretreatment could provide an early grout feed and free tank space, as well as facilitate downstream processes such as ion exchange by providing a less caustic feed. A total of eight test runs were completed using a 10-ft tall 3-in i.d. glass column. The 10-ft height corresponds to about one third of the vertical height of a DST, hence providing a reasonable basis for extrapolating the observed precipitate settling and compaction to the actual waste tank environment. Four runs (three with a simplified simulant and one with a chemically complete simulant) produced well settled precipitates averaging 1.5 to 2 feet high. Aluminum gel rather than settled precipitate resulted from one test where neutralization was too rapid

A study of cloud microphysics and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by radar observations and cloud-resolving model simulations: Cloud Microphysics over Tibetan Plateau

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Sui, Chung-Hsiung [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei Taiwan; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Hu, Zhiqun [State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Zhong, Lingzhi [State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China

2016-11-27

Cloud microphysical properties and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique because of the high terrains, clean atmosphere, and sufficient water vapor. With dual-polarization precipitation radar and cloud radar measurements during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III), the simulated microphysics and precipitation by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) microphysics and other microphysical schemes are investigated through a typical plateau rainfall event on 22 July 2014. Results show that the WRF-CAMS simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation, but has limitations in simulating time evolution of precipitation rates. The model-calculated polarimetric radar variables have biases as well, suggesting bias in modeled hydrometeor types. The raindrop sizes in convective region are larger than those in stratiform region indicated by the small intercept of raindrop size distribution in the former. The sensitivity experiments show that precipitation processes are sensitive to the changes of warm rain processes in condensation and nucleated droplet size (but less sensitive to evaporation process). Increasing droplet condensation produces the best area-averaged rain rate during weak convection period compared with the observation, suggesting a considerable bias in thermodynamics in the baseline simulation. Increasing the initial cloud droplet size causes the rain rate reduced by half, an opposite effect to that of increasing droplet condensation.

Reliability of reanalyses products in simulating precipitation and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

45

reanalyses in replicating the observed climate data at various regions is of utmost interest. .... This dataset accurately captures the orographic influence of precipitation and ...... Clouds and Precipitation, International Commission on Clouds and ...

ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CARPATHIAN REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KIS ANNA

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Precipitation is the major atmospheric source of surface water, thus, in order to build appropriate adaptation strategies for various economic sections related to water resources it is essential to provide projections for precipitation tendencies as exact as possible. Extreme precipitation events are especially important from this point of view since they may result in different environmental, economical, and/or even human health damages. Excessive precipitation for instance may induce floods, flash-floods, landslides, traffic accidents. On the other hand, lack of precipitation is not favorable either: long dry periods affect agricultural production quite negatively, and hence, food safety can be threatened. Several precipitation-related indices (i.e., describing drought or intensity, exceeding different percentile-based or absolute threshold values are analyzed for the Carpathian region for 1961–2100. For this purpose 11 completed regional climate model simulations are used from the ENSEMBLES database. Before the thorough analysis, a percentile-based bias correction method was applied to the raw data, for which the homogenized daily gridded CarpatClim database (1961–2010 served as a reference. Absolute and relative seasonal mean changes of climate indices are calculated for two future time periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100 and for three subregions within the entire Carpathian region, namely, for Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. According to our results, longer dry periods are estimated for the summer season, mainly in the southern parts of the domain, while precipitation intensity is likely to increase. Heavy precipitation days and high percentile values are projected to increase, especially, in winter and autumn.

The Microphysical Properties of Convective Precipitation Over the Tibetan Plateau by a Subkilometer Resolution Cloud-Resolving Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Wenhua; Liu, Liping; Li, Jian; Lu, Chunsong

2018-03-01

The microphysical properties of convective precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau are unique because of the extremely high topography and special atmospheric conditions. In this study, the ground-based cloud radar and disdrometer observations as well as high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences microphysics and four other microphysical schemes are used to investigate the microphysics and precipitation mechanisms of a convection event on 24 July 2014. The Weather Research and Forecasting-Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-hr accumulated rainfall, yet the temporal evolution of rain rate has a delay of 1-3 hr. The model reflectivity shares the common features with the cloud radar observations. The simulated raindrop size distributions demonstrate more of small- and large-size raindrops produced with the increase of rain rate, suggesting that changeable shape parameter should be used in size distribution. Results show that abundant supercooled water exists through condensation of water vapor above the freezing layer. The prevailing ice crystal microphysical processes are depositional growth and autoconversion of ice crystal to snow. The dominant source term of snow/graupel is riming of supercooled water. Sedimentation of graupel can play a vital role in the formation of precipitation, but melting of snow is rather small and quite different from that in other regions. Furthermore, water vapor budgets suggest that surface moisture flux be the principal source of water vapor and self-circulation of moisture happen at the beginning of convection, while total moisture flux convergence determine condensation and precipitation during the convective process over the Tibetan Plateau.

Dose and dose rate effects on coherent-to-incoherent transition of precipitates upon irradiation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LI Zhengchao

2006-01-01

A typical precipitation hardened alloy, Cu-Co dilute alloy was selected to study the precipitation behavior and irradiation effect on precipitates. It is found that the principal effect of ion irradiation on the coherent precipitates is loss of coherency, and TEM cross-section observations show that the fraction of the incoherent precipitates is dependent on dose but not on dose rate during heavy ion irradiation.

Separation of aromatic precipitates from simulated high level radioactive waste by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Young, S.R.; Shah, H.B.; Carter, J.T.

1991-01-01

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the SRS will be the United States' first facility to process High Level radioactive Waste (HLW) into a borosilicate glass matrix. The removal of aromatic precipitates by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction will be a key step in the processing of the HLW. This step, titled the Precipitate Hydrolysis Process, has been demonstrated by the Savannah River Laboratory with the Precipitate Hydrolysis Experimental Facility (PHEF). The mission of the PHEF is to demonstrate processing of simulated high level radioactive waste which contains tetraphenylborate precipitates and nitrite. Reduction of nitrite by hydroxylamine nitrate and hydrolysis of the tetraphenylborate by formic acid is discussed. Gaseous production, which is primarily benzene, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, has been quantified. Production of high-boiling organic compounds and the accumulation of these organic compounds within the process are addressed

The isotopic composition of precipitation from a winter storm – a case study with the limited-area model COSMOiso

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Yoshimura

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Stable water isotopes are valuable tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, and potentially provide useful information also on weather-related processes. In order to further explore this potential, the water isotopes H218O and HDO are incorporated into the limited-area model COSMO. In a first case study, the new COSMOiso model is used for simulating a winter storm event in January 1986 over the eastern United States associated with intense frontal precipitation. The modelled isotope ratios in precipitation and water vapour are compared to spatially distributed δ18O observations. COSMOiso very accurately reproduces the statistical distribution of δ18O in precipitation, and also the synoptic-scale spatial pattern and temporal evolution agree well with the measurements. Perpendicular to the front that triggers most of the rainfall during the event, the model simulates a gradient in the isotopic composition of the precipitation, with high δ18O values in the warm air and lower values in the cold sector behind the front. This spatial pattern is created through an interplay of large scale air mass advection, removal of heavy isotopes by precipitation at the front and microphysical interactions between rain drops and water vapour beneath the cloud base. This investigation illustrates the usefulness of high resolution, event-based model simulations for understanding the complex processes that cause synoptic-scale variability of the isotopic composition of atmospheric waters. In future research, this will be particularly beneficial in combination with laser spectrometric isotope observations with high temporal resolution.

Mesh refinement for particle-in-cell plasma simulations: Applications to - and benefits for HIF (heavy ion fusion)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vay, J.L.; Colella, P.; McCorquodale, P.; Van Straalen, B.; Friedman, A.; Grote, D.P.

2002-01-01

The numerical simulation of the driving beams in a heavy ion fusion power plant is a challenging task, and simulation of the power plant as a whole, or even of the drive,r is not yet possible. Despite the rapid progress in computer power, past and anticipated, one must consider the use of the most advanced numerical techniques, if they are to reach the goal expeditiously. One of the difficulties of these simulations resides in the disparity of scales, in time and in space, which must be resolved. When these disparities are in distinctive zones of the simulation region, a method which has proven to be effective in other areas (e.g., fluid dynamics simulations) is the mesh refinement technique. They discuss the challenges posed by the implementation of this technique into plasma simulations (due to the presence of particles and electromagnetic waves). They will present the prospects for and projected benefits of its application to heavy ion fusion, in particular to the simulation of the ion source and the final beam propagation in the chamber

Dissolution of heavy metals from electrostatic precipitator (ESP) dust ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

SIBOO

Key words: Fungal leaching, sponge iron, electrostatic precipitator (ESP) dust, metal dissolution. INTRODUCTION ... ability of micro organisms to transform solid compounds ..... of metals from spent lithium ion secondary batteries using A.

Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Řezáčová, Daniela; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Sokol, Zbyněk

2009-01-01

Roč. 93, 1-3 (2009), s. 238-246 ISSN 0169-8095. [European Conference on Severe Storms /4./. Miramare -Trieste, 10.09.2007-14.09.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk OC 112 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Convective storm * Quantitative precipitation forecast * Uncertainty in precipitation forecasting * Ensemble forecasting * Numerical weather prediction model Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.811, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01698095

Precipitation Evaluation in the Central Peruvian Andes Using Radar Data and WRF Simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Y.; Scipion, D.; Moya, A.; Valdivia, J.; Villalobos, E.

2016-12-01

We present preliminary results of the case of study of stratiform and convective precipitation that occurred in the Observatory of Huancayo (3300 m.a.s.l.) on December 29th, 2015. The analyses were done using a Ka-band cloud-precipitation radar, a boundary layer tropospheric radar, an optical disdrometer, rain gauges, as well as other conventional instruments. We complemented the analysis using WRF with 4 domains: 18, 6, 2, and 0.6 km spatial resolution with Grell - Freitas and Kain - Fritz (Multi - Scale) cumulus parameterizations for all domains, and also settings these parameterizations only for the 18 and 6 km domains. Preliminary results show that stratiform rain occurred during early hours on Dec. 29 while at about 4pm local time there were convective rains with hail, lasted approximately 30 min. The clouds in stratiform rain did not exceed 6 km high above the surface; while for convective rain, the clouds reached up to 13 km a.s.l. The wind analysis from the BLTR indicate high turbulence before the rain event, this turbulence is better represented for stratiform rain, since for convective rains the signal is attenuated, this issue is still being studied. The 24 hours simulation shows that the WRF adequately reproduces the rainy event 29th, the convective precipitation was formed at Northwest of the Observatory at 21UTC and spreads into the valley. There are no major differences in precipitation between 2 and 0.6 km domains; however, the 0.6km domain has higher humidity in low levels and the modeled precipitation starts two hours earlier than observed.

Aggregate strength for bituminous surfacings for low volume roads: a heavy vehicle simulator experience

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Paige-Green, P

2004-09-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses an investigation using the CSIR Transportek Heavy Vehicle Simulator (HVS) to determine the impact of using aggregates softer than specified in chip seals and to propose possible relaxations in the currently specified strength...

Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

2018-02-01

An ensemble of 88 regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° spatial resolutions from the EURO-CORDEX project is analyzed for central Belgium to investigate the projected impact of climate change on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and extreme precipitation quantiles typically used in water engineering designs. The rate of uncertainty arising from the choice of RCM, driving GCM, and radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) is quantified using a variance decomposition technique after reconstruction of missing data in GCM × RCM combinations. A comparative analysis between the historical simulations of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° RCMs shows higher precipitation intensities by the finer resolution runs, leading to a larger overestimation of the observations-based IDFs by the 0.11° runs. The results reveal that making a temporal stationarity assumption for the climate system may lead to underestimation of precipitation quantiles up to 70% by the end of this century. This projected increase is generally larger for the 0.11° RCMs compared with the 0.44° RCMs. The relative changes in extreme precipitation do depend on return period and duration, indicating an amplification for larger return periods and for smaller durations. The variance decomposition approach generally identifies RCM as the most dominant component of uncertainty in changes of more extreme precipitation (return period of 10 years) for both 0.11° and 0.44° resolutions, followed by GCM and RCP scenario. The uncertainties associated with cross-contributions of RCMs, GCMs, and RCPs play a non-negligible role in the associated uncertainties of the changes.

Evaluation of radar-derived precipitation estimates using runoff simulation : report for the NFR Energy Norway funded project 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abdella, Yisak; Engeland, Kolbjoern; Lepioufle, Jean-Marie

2012-11-01

This report presents the results from the project called 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models' funded by NFR and Energy Norway. Three precipitation products (radar-derived, interpolated and combination of the two) were generated as input for hydrological models. All the three products were evaluated by comparing the simulated and observed runoff at catchments. In order to expose any bias in the precipitation inputs, no precipitation correction factors were applied. Three criteria were used to measure the performance: Nash, correlation coefficient, and bias. The results shows that the simulations with the combined precipitation input give the best performance. We also see that the radar-derived precipitation estimates give reasonable runoff simulation even without a region specific parameters for the Z-R relationship. All the three products resulted in an underestimation of the estimated runoff, revealing a systematic bias in measurements (e.g. catch deficit, orographic effects, Z-R relationships) that can be improved. There is an important potential of using radar-derived precipitation for simulation of runoff, especially in catchments without precipitation gauges inside.(Author)

Impact of the Gulf of California SST on simulating precipitation and crop productivity in the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Prasad, A. K.; Stack, D. H.; El-Askary, H. M.; Kafatos, M.

2012-12-01

Like other ecosystems, agricultural productivity is substantially affected by climate factors. Therefore, accurate climatic data (i.e. precipitation, temperature, and radiation) is crucial to simulating crop yields. In order to understand and anticipate climate change and its impacts on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States, the WRF regional climate model (RCM) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) were employed for simulating crop production. 19 years of WRF RCM output show that there is a strong dry bias during the warm season, especially in Arizona. Consequently, the APSIM crop model indicates very low crop yields in this region. We suspect that the coarse resolution of reanalysis data could not resolve the relatively warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Gulf of California (GC), causing the SST to be up to 10 degrees lower than the climatology. In the Southwestern United States, a significant amount of precipitation is associated with North American Monsoon (NAM). During the monsoon season, the low-level moisture is advected to the Southwestern United States via the GC, which is known to be the dominant moisture source. Thus, high-resolution SST data in the GC is required for RCM simulations to accurately represent a reasonable amount of precipitation in the region, allowing reliable evaluation of the impacts on regional ecosystems.and evaluate impacts on regional ecosystems. To evaluate the influence of SST on agriculture in the Southwestern U.S., two sets of numerical simulations were constructed: a control, using unresolved SST of GC, and daily updated SST data from the MODIS satellite sensor. The meteorological drivers from each of the 6 year RCM runs were provided as input to the APSIM model to determine the crop yield. Analyses of the simulated crop production, and the interannual variation of the meteorological drivers, demonstrate the influence of SST on crop yields in the Southwestern United States.

Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over South Korea in the late twenty-first century (2081-2100) projected by the RegCM4.0 based on four RCP scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok

2018-01-01

Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types over South Korea during summer in the late twenty-first century (2081-2100) were projected under four RCP scenarios using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.0) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. Two boundary conditions, ERA-Interim and HadGEM2-AO, were used to drive the RegCM4.0 (jointly named RG4_ERA and RG4_HG2, respectively). In general, the RegCM4.0 reproduces the spatial distribution of summer precipitation over Northeast Asia for the current climate (1989-2008) reasonably well. The RG4_HG2 shows larger dry biases over South Korea, when compared with observations, than does the RG4_ERA. These strong dry biases result from the underestimation of convective precipitation (CPR) and are particularly noticeable in late afternoons during July and August. It is related to the performance of HadGEM2-AO which simulated southwesterly winds weakly in that time. However, interestingly, the RG4_HG2 simulates similar increases in the contribution of CPR to total precipitation after mid-July, resulting in comparable performance in the reproduction of heavy precipitation. In the late twenty-first century, a significant increase (decrease) in CPR (NCPR) is generally projected over South Korea, and particularly under the RCP8.5. During June, the total precipitation is affected primarily by changes in NCPR under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. After mid-July, increasing total precipitation is primarily caused by the distinct increases in CPR in the late afternoons; this pattern is particularly noticeable under RCP8.5, which is associated with more destabilized atmospheric conditions during July and August. Light and heavy precipitation are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under RCP8.5.

Atmospheric heavy metal deposition in the Copenhagen area

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Allan; Hovmand, Mads Frederik; Johnsen, Ib

1978-01-01

Atmospheric dry and wet deposition (bulk precipitation) of the heavy metals Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, V and Fe over the Copenhagen area was measured by sampling in plastic funnels from 17 stations during a twelve-month period. Epigeic bryophytes from 100 stations in the area were analysed for the heavy...

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.

2010-01-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

van Heeswijk, Marijke

2006-01-01

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of

Evaluation of NWP-based Satellite Precipitation Error Correction with Near-Real-Time Model Products and Flood-inducing Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Satellite precipitation products tend to have significant biases over complex terrain. Our research investigates a statistical approach for satellite precipitation adjustment based solely on numerical weather simulations. This approach has been evaluated in two mid-latitude (Zhang et al. 2013*1, Zhang et al. 2016*2) and three topical mountainous regions by using the WRF model to adjust two high-resolution satellite products i) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) and ii) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). Results show the adjustment effectively reduces the satellite underestimation of high rain rates, which provides a solid proof-of-concept for continuing research of NWP-based satellite correction. In this study we investigate the feasibility of using NCAR Real-time Ensemble Forecasts*3 for adjusting near-real-time satellite precipitation datasets over complex terrain areas in the Continental United States (CONUS) such as Olympic Peninsula, California coastal mountain ranges, Rocky Mountains and South Appalachians. The research will focus on flood-inducing storms occurred from May 2015 to December 2016 and four satellite precipitation products (CMORPH, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CCS and IMERG). The error correction performance evaluation will be based on comparisons against the gauge-adjusted Stage IV precipitation data. *1 Zhang, Xinxuan, et al. "Using NWP simulations in satellite rainfall estimation of heavy precipitation events over mountainous areas." Journal of Hydrometeorology 14.6 (2013): 1844-1858. *2 Zhang, Xinxuan, et al. "Hydrologic Evaluation of NWP-Adjusted CMORPH Estimates of Hurricane-Induced Precipitation in the Southern Appalachians." Journal of Hydrometeorology 17.4 (2016): 1087-1099. *3 Schwartz, Craig S., et al. "NCAR's experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system." Weather and Forecasting 30.6 (2015): 1645-1654.

Measured and simulated heavy-ion beam loss patterns at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Science.gov (United States)

Hermes, P. D.; Bruce, R.; Jowett, J. M.; Redaelli, S.; Salvachua Ferrando, B.; Valentino, G.; Wollmann, D.

2016-05-01

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN pushes forward to new regimes in terms of beam energy and intensity. In view of the combination of very energetic and intense beams together with sensitive machine components, in particular the superconducting magnets, the LHC is equipped with a collimation system to provide protection and intercept uncontrolled beam losses. Beam losses could cause a superconducting magnet to quench, or in the worst case, damage the hardware. The collimation system, which is optimized to provide a good protection with proton beams, has shown a cleaning efficiency with heavy-ion beams which is worse by up to two orders of magnitude. The reason for this reduced cleaning efficiency is the fragmentation of heavy-ion beams into isotopes with a different mass to charge ratios because of the interaction with the collimator material. In order to ensure sufficient collimation performance in future ion runs, a detailed theoretical understanding of ion collimation is needed. The simulation of heavy-ion collimation must include processes in which 82 + 208Pb ions fragment into dozens of new isotopes. The ions and their fragments must be tracked inside the magnetic lattice of the LHC to determine their loss positions. This paper gives an overview of physical processes important for the description of heavy-ion loss patterns. Loss maps simulated by means of the two tools ICOSIM [1,2] and the newly developed STIER (SixTrack with Ion-Equivalent Rigidities) are compared with experimental data measured during LHC operation. The comparison shows that the tool STIER is in better agreement.

Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2007-02-15

Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

Study of benzene release from Savannah River in-tank precipitation process slurry simulant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rappe, K.G.; Gauglitz, P.A.

1998-08-01

At the Savannah River Site, the in-tank precipitation (ITP) process uses sodium tetraphenylborate (NaTPB) to precipitate radioactive cesium from alkaline wastes. During this process, potassium is also precipitated to form 4-wt% KTPB/CsTPB slurry. Residual NaTPB decomposes to form benzene, which is retained by the waste slurry. The retained benzene is also readily released from the waste during subsequent waste processing. While the release of benzene certainly poses flammability and toxicological safety concerns, the magnitude of the hazard depends on the rate of release. Currently, the mechanisms controlling the benzene release rates are not well understood, and predictive models for estimating benzene release rates are not available. The overall purpose of this study is to obtain quantitative measurements of benzene release rates from a series of ITP slurry simulants. This information will become a basis for developing a quantitative mechanistic model of benzene release rates. The transient benzene release rate was measured from the surface of various ITP slurry (solution) samples mixed with benzene. The benzene release rate was determined by continuously purging the headspace of a sealed sample vessel with an inert gas (nitrogen) and analyzing that purged headspace vapor for benzene every minute

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

Groundwater response to heavy precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waring, C.; Bradd, J.; Hankin, S.

2003-05-01

An investigation of the groundwater response to heavy rainfall at Lucas Heights Science and Technology Centre (LHSTC) is required under the conditions of Facility Licence F0001 for the ANSTO's Replacement Research Reactor. Groundwater continuous hydrograph monitoring has been used for this purpose. Hydrograph data from four boreholes are presented showing the rainfall recorded during the same period for comparison. The drought conditions have provided only limited cases where groundwater responded to a rainfall event. The characteristic response was local, caused by saturated soil contributing water directly to the borehole and the falling head as the water was redistributed into he aquifer in a few hours. Hydrograph data from borehole near the head of a gully showed that groundwater flow from the plateau to the gully produced a peak a fe days after the rainfall event and that the water level returned to its original level after about 10 days. The hydrograph data are consistent with an imperfect multi-layer groundwater flow regime, developed from earlier seismic and geophysical data, with decreasing rate of flow in each layer due to decreasing hydraulic conductivity with depth. The contrast in hydraulic conductivity between the thin permeable soil layer and the low permeable sandstone forms an effective barrier to vertical flow

Verification of Temperature and Precipitation Simulated Data by Individual and Ensemble Performance of Five AOGCM Models for North East of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Ashraf

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Scince climatic models are the basic tools to study climate change and because of the multiplicity of these models, selecting the most appropriate model for the studying location is very considerable. In this research the temperature and precipitation simulated data by BCM2, CGCM3, CNRMCM3, MRICGCM2.3 and MIROC3 models are downscaled with proportional method according A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios for Torbat-heydariye, Sabzevar and Mashhad initially. Then using coefficient of determination (R2, index of agreement (D and mean-square deviations (MSD, models were verified individually and as ensemble performance. The results showed that, based on individual performance and three emission scenarios, MRICGCM2.3 model in Torbat-heydariye and Mashhad and MIROC3.2 model in Sabzevar had the best performance in simulation of temperature and MIROC3.2, MRICGCM2.3 and CNRMCM3 models have provided the most accurate predictions for precipitation in Torbat-heydariye, Sabzevar and Mashahad respectively. Also simulated temperature by all models in Torbat-heydariye and Sabzevar base on B1 scenario and, in Mashhad based on A2 scenario had the lowest uncertainty. The most accuracy in modeling of precipitation was resulted based on A2 scenario in Torbat-heydariye and, B1 scenario in Sabzevar and Mashhad. Investigation of calculated statistics driven from ensemble performance of 5 selected models caused notable reduction of simulation error and thus increase the accuracy of predictions based on all emission scenarios generally. In this case, the best fitting of simulated and observed temperature data were achieved based on B1 scenario in Torbat-heydariye and Sabzevar and, A2 scenario in Mashhad. And the best fitting simulated and observed precipitation data were obtained based on A2 scenario in Torbat-heydariye and, B1 scenario in Sabzevar and Mashhad. According to the results of this research, before any climate change research it is necessary to select the

Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

2017-06-01

A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

Anthropogenic changes of summer precipitation in North Rhine - Westphalia, Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Brücher, T.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

A transient low resolution (T42) greenhouse gas run of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM, and a nested run of the regional climate model HIRLAM/RCA1 (40 km resolution) are considered with respect to summer rainfall. The area of investigation is the flat part (< 200 m above sea level) of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the model grid points close to / within this area, respectively. For the time period representing present day climate, the precipitation amounts simulated by the GCM are in good agreement with oberserved values, whereas the nested regional model produces too large rainfall sums (+25%). With respect to intensity classes on a daily basis, both models underestimate the observed frequency of intense events and overestimate the number of days with a low precipitation amount. For the GCM, we take account of these systematic errors by defining a non-linear transfer function. This function is subsequently applied to the model's output from the scenario period. For future climate, both models show a significant reduction of the total summer precipitation. This reduction is caused by an increased number of dry days, which eventually dominates over a simultaneous increase in the number of days with intense precipitation. Average rainfalls are computed for periods between 5 to 30 days. For all averaging periods considered. The frequency of periods with less than 2 mm precipitation per day is found to rise (by up to 200%) compared to present day climate. There are less periods with more than 3 mm of rain. The decline amounts up to 50%. Thus, the models give no evidence for a grouping of heavy rainfall events.

PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN CENTRAL/EASTERN EUROPE ON THE BASIS OF ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika Miklos

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Projected precipitation changes in Central/Eastern Europe on the basis of ENSEMBLE simulations. For building appropriate local/national adaptation and mitigation strategies, detailed analysis of regional climate change is essential. In order to estimate the climate change for the 21st century, both global and regional models may be used. However, due to the coarse horizontal resolution, global climate models are not appropriate to describe regional scale climate processes. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs provide more realistic regional climate scenarios. A wide range of RCM experiments was accomplished in the frame of the ENSEMBLES project funded by the EU FP6 program, which was one of the largest climate change research project ever completed. All the RCM experiments used 25 km horizontal resolution and the A1B emission scenario, according to which CO2 concentration by 2100 is estimated to exceed 700 ppm, i.e., more than twice of the preindustrial level.The 25 km spatial resolution is fine enough to estimate the future hydrology-related conditions in different parts of Europe, from which we separated and analyzed simulated climate data sets for the Central/Eastern European region. Precipitation is an especially important climatological variable because of agricultural aspects and flood-related natural hazards, which may seriously affect all the countries in the evaluated region. On the basis of our results, different RCM simulations generally project drier summers and wetter winters (compared to the recent decades. The southern countries are more likely to suffer more intense warming, especially, in summer, and also, more intense drought events due to the stronger Mediterranean impact.

Mesh Refinement for Particle-In-Cell Plasma Simulations: Applications to - and benefits for - Heavy-Ion-Fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vay, J.-L.; Colella, P.; McCorquodale, P.; Van Straalen, B.; Friedman, A.; Grote, D.P.

2002-01-01

The numerical simulation of the driving beams in a heavy ion fusion power plant is a challenging task, and simulation of the power plant as a whole, or even of the driver, is not yet possible. Despite the rapid progress in computer power, past and anticipated, one must consider the use of the most advanced numerical techniques, if we are to reach our goal expeditiously. One of the difficulties of these simulations resides in the disparity of scales, in time and in space, which must be resolved. When these disparities are in distinctive zones of the simulation region, a method which has proven to be effective in other areas (e.g., fluid dynamics simulations) is the mesh refinement technique. They discuss the challenges posed by the implementation of this technique into plasma simulations (due to the presence of particles and electromagnetic waves). They will present the prospects for and projected benefits of its application to heavy ion fusion. In particular to the simulation of the ion source and the final beam propagation in the chamber. A collaboration project is under way at LBNL between the Applied Numerical Algorithms Group (ANAG) and the HIF group to couple the Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) library (CHOMBO) developed by the ANAG group to the Particle-In-Cell accelerator code WARP developed by the HIF-VNL. They describe their progress and present their initial findings

Air pollution or global warming: Attribution of extreme precipitation changes in eastern China—Comments on "Trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern China and their possible causes"

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yuan

2015-10-01

The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.

Simulation of thermal-neutron-induced single-event upset using particle and heavy-ion transport code system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arita, Yutaka; Kihara, Yuji; Mitsuhasi, Junichi; Niita, Koji; Takai, Mikio; Ogawa, Izumi; Kishimoto, Tadafumi; Yoshihara, Tsutomu

2007-01-01

The simulation of a thermal-neutron-induced single-event upset (SEU) was performed on a 0.4-μm-design-rule 4 Mbit static random access memory (SRAM) using particle and heavy-ion transport code system (PHITS): The SEU rates obtained by the simulation were in very good agreement with the result of experiments. PHITS is a useful tool for simulating SEUs in semiconductor devices. To further improve the accuracy of the simulation, additional methods for tallying the energy deposition are required for PHITS. (author)

Sensitivity Studies on the Influence of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Development Using WRF Mesoscale Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, G.; Eidhammer, T.; Rasmussen, R.

2011-12-01

Using the WRF model in simulations of shallow and deep precipitating cloud systems, we investigated the sensitivity to aerosols initiating as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. A global climatological dataset of sulfates, sea salts, and dust was used as input for a control experiment. Sensitivity experiments with significantly more polluted conditions were conducted to analyze the resulting impacts to cloud and precipitation formation. Simulations were performed using the WRF model with explicit treatment of aerosols added to the Thompson et al (2008) bulk microphysics scheme. The modified scheme achieves droplet formation using pre-tabulated CCN activation tables provided by a parcel model. The ice nucleation is parameterized as a function of dust aerosols as well as homogeneous freezing of deliquesced aerosols. The basic processes of aerosol activation and removal by wet scavenging are considered, but aerosol characteristic size or hygroscopicity does not change due to evaporating droplets. In other words, aerosol processing was ignored. Unique aspects of this study include the usage of one to four kilometer grid spacings and the direct parameterization of ice nucleation from aerosols rather than typical temperature and/or supersaturation relationships alone. Initial results from simulations of a deep winter cloud system and its interaction with significant orography show contrasting sensitivities in regions of warm rain versus mixed liquid and ice conditions. The classical view of higher precipitation amounts in relatively clean maritime clouds with fewer but larger droplets is confirmed for regions dominated by the warm-rain process. However, due to complex interactions with the ice phase and snow riming, the simulations revealed the reverse situation in high terrain areas dominated by snow reaching the surface. Results of other cloud systems will be summarized at the conference.

Development of a numerical simulation method for melting/solidification and dissolution/precipitation phenomena. 1. Literature survey for computer program design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uchibori, Akihiro; Ohshima, Hiroyuki

2004-04-01

Survey research of numerical methods for melting/solidification and dissolution/precipitation phenomena was performed to determine the policy for a simulation program development. Melting/solidification and dissolution/ precipitation have been key issues for feasibility evaluation of several techniques applied in the nuclear fuel cycle processes. Physical models for single-component melting/solidification, two-component solution solidification or precipitation by cooling and precipitation by electrolysis, which are moving boundary problems, were made clear from the literature survey. The transport equations are used for thermal hydraulic analysis in the solid and the liquid regions. Behavior of the solid-liquid interface is described by the heat and mass transfer model. These physical models need to be introduced into the simulation program. The numerical methods for the moving boundary problems are categorized into two types: interface tracking method and interface capturing method. Based on the classification, performance of each numerical method was evaluated. The interface tracking method using the Lagrangian moving mesh requires relatively complicated algorithm. The algorithm has high accuracy for predicting the moving interface. On the other hand, the interface capturing method uses the Eulerian fixing mesh, leading to simple algorithm. Prediction accuracy of the method is relatively low. The extended finite element method classified as the interface capturing method can predict the interface behavior accurately even though the Eulerian fixing mesh is used. We decided to apply the extended finite element method to the simulation program. (author)

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on the breeding growth mode and associated optimization of precipitation forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Chen, Chaohui; Miao, Ziqing; Bai, Shigang

2017-10-01

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode (BGM). Meanwhile, the probability matched mean (PMM) and neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipitation tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the precipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of precipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could improve precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.

Detecting the effect of urban land use on extreme precipitation in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rahimpour Golroudbary, Vahid; Zeng, Y.; Mannaerts, C.M.; Su, Z.

2017-01-01

A notable increase in heavy precipitation has been observed over the Netherlands in recent decades. The aim of this study was to assess the influences of urban land use on these extreme precipitation patterns. Significant differences between an earlier multi-decadal period and a recent period were

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akio Kitoh

2016-03-01

Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

Dissolution of heavy metals from electrostatic precipitator (ESP) dust ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Coal based sponge iron industries in India generate considerable quantity of solid waste, 40% of which is flue dust produced from the electrostatic precipitator (ESP) connected to rotary kiln. This paper reports the dissolution of Zn, Cu, Pb, Mn and Fe from the ESP dust using three fungal species, Aspergillus niger, ...

ELSHIM: Program to simulate elastic processes of heavy ions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Ginneken, A.

1992-05-01

The Monte Carlo code ELSIM simulates elastic and quasi-elastic, i.e., of limited energy loss, processes of high energy hadrons in a thick target with particular attention to scattering off edges and the like. Its main applications concern accelerator beam loss, beam scraping, etc. Particles which only participate in elastic processes and are then reflected back into the aperture may cause problems elsewhere in the accelerator lattice -- often far removed from where the beam loss occurs. Therefore ELSIM is often run in conjunction with an accelerator tracking program. It can also be used as the first stage in energy deposition studies. For example, when beam is lost in a superconducting magnet ELSIM can provide energy deposition by the incident particles along with a file specifying coordinates and momenta of the inelastic interactions. The latter can then be processed by a program such as CASIM to complete the energy deposition simulation. A new version of this program, called ELSHIM is introduced here which extends ELSIM to include heavy ions as projectiles

Navier-Stokes Simulation of a Heavy Lift Slowed-Rotor Compound Helicopter Configuration

Science.gov (United States)

Allan, Brian G.; Jenkins, Luther N.; Yao, Chung-Sheng; Bartram, Scott M.; Hallissy, Jim B.; Harris, Jerome; Noonan, Kevin W.; Wong, Oliver D.; Jones, Henry E.; Malovrh, Brendon D.;

Characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Vosges Mountains region (north-eastern France)

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Minářová, Jana; Müller, Miloslav; Clappier, A.; Kašpar, Marek

2017-01-01

Roč. 37, č. 13 (2017), s. 4529-4542 ISSN 0899-8418 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Vosges Mountains * extreme precipitation * heavy rainfall * WEI * synoptic conditions * precipitation * Grosswetterlagen * trend analysis Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5102/abstract

Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to boundary layer parameterization: a flash flood case study in the Western Mediterranean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Zampieri

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The 'Montserrat-2000' severe flash flood event which occurred over Catalonia on 9 and 10 June 2000 is analyzed. Strong precipitation was generated by a mesoscale convective system associated with the development of a cyclone. The location of heavy precipitation depends on the position of the cyclone, which, in turn, is found to be very sensitive to various model characteristics and initial conditions. Numerical simulations of this case study using the hydrostatic BOLAM and the non-hydrostatic MOLOCH models are performed in order to test the effects of different formulations of the boundary layer parameterization: a modified version of the Louis (order 1 model and a custom version of the E-ℓ (order 1.5 model. Both of them require a diagnostic formulation of the mixing length, but the use of the turbulent kinetic energy equation in the E-ℓ model allows to represent turbulence history and non-locality effects and to formulate a more physically based mixing length. The impact of the two schemes is different in the two models. The hydrostatic model, run at 1/5 degree resolution, is less sensitive, but the quantitative precipitation forecast is in any case unsatisfactory in terms of localization and amount. Conversely, the non-hydrostatic model, run at 1/50 degree resolution, is capable of realistically simulate timing, position and amount of precipitation, with the apparently superior results obtained with the E-ℓ parameterization model.

Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

2012-12-01

Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

Climatological studies on precipitation features and large-scale atmospheric fields on the heavy rainfall days in the eastern part of Japan from the Baiu to midsummer season

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Kengo; Kato, Kuranoshin; Otani, Kazuo

2017-04-01

In East Asia the significant subtropical frontal zone called the Meiyu (in China) / Baiu (in Japan) appears in early summer (just before the midsummer) and the huge rainfall is brought due to the frequent appearance of the "heavy rainfall days" (referred to as HRDs hereafter) mainly in that western part. On the other hand, large-scale fields around the front in eastern Japan is rather different from that in western Japan but the total precipitation in the eastern Japan is still considerable compared to that in the other midlatitude regions. Thus, it is also interesting to examine how the rainfall characteristics and large-scale atmospheric fields on HRDs (with more than 50 mm/day) in the eastern Japan in the mature stage of the Baiu season (16 June 15 July), together with those in midsummer (1 31 August). Based on such scientific background, further analyses were performed in this study mainly with the daily and the hourly precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis date from 1971 to 2010, succeeding to our previous results (e.g., EGU2015). As reported at EGU2014 and 2015, about half of HRDs at Tokyo (eastern Japan) were related to the typhoon even in the Baiu season. Interestingly, half of HRDs were characterized by the large contribution of moderate rain less than 10 mm/h. While, the precipitation on HRDs at Tokyo in midsummer was mainly brought by the intense rainfall with more than 10 mm/h, in association with the typhoons. In the present study, we examined the composite meridional structure of the rainfall area along 140E. In the pattern only associated with a typhoons in the Baiu season (Pattern A), the heavy rainfall area (more than 50 mm/day) with large contribution of the intense rain (stronger than 10 mm/h) showed rather wide meridional extension. The area was characterized by the duration of the intermittent enhancement of the rainfall. In the pattern associated with a typhoon and a front (Pattern B), while the contribution ratio of the rainfall

On the Mass Balance of Asphaltene Precipitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Simon Ivar; Lira-Galeana, C.; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

2001-01-01

In the evaluation of experimental data as well as in calculation of phase equilibria the necessity of the application of mass balances is obvious. In the case of asphaltenes the colloidal nature of these compounds may highly affect the mass balance. In the present paper several experiments are pe......, and that the material in the second precipitation step was often of higher apparent molecular weight anti had an increased overall absorbance coefficient.......In the evaluation of experimental data as well as in calculation of phase equilibria the necessity of the application of mass balances is obvious. In the case of asphaltenes the colloidal nature of these compounds may highly affect the mass balance. In the present paper several experiments...... indicates that in temperature experiments as well as in solvent series experiments the precipitation of heavy asphaltenes affects the following precipitation of lighter asphaltenes. In both cases the mass balance using standard separation techniques cannot be closed, as less material is precipitated...

Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

2007-01-01

We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

Heavy impurity transport in the TFR tokamak. Comparison of line emission with numerical simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-10-01

Heavy element ion line emissions have been simulated with a numerical code using two adjustable, independent of radius, parameters in the flux density expression: an anomalous diffusion coefficient Dsub(A) and an inward convective velocity Vsub(A). Previously reported results on the laser blow-off injection of V, Cr, and Ni have thus been interpreted. The quasi-stationary phase of ohmically-heated high-density (nsub(e)(0)approximately1.5x10 14 cm -3 ) discharges has also been simulated, thus allowing the plasma ''chemical'' composition and the radiated power to be calculated

Development of precipitator of fluid film type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Yupu

1987-01-01

The precipitator of fluid film type is developed for the determination of fuel element cladding failure of water-cooled reactor. It integrates the scrubber, precipitator and detector. The jet of element cooling water automatically circulates carrier gas and the flow water film transfers precipitates onto the surface of centre electrode. Three different types are designed. On the special test loop, the uranium sample pellets of simulating cladding failure is measured. The sensitivity of precipitators, saturated precipitation voltage, incremental speed of signal, speed of driving out precipitates and the contents of the precipitates are determined. The test shows that the precipitators are highly sensitive, reliable, cheap and easy to operate

Heavy flavour in ALICE

CERN Document Server

Pillot, Philippe

2008-01-01

Open heavy flavours and heavy quarkonium states are expected to provide essential informa- tion on the properties of the strongly interacting system fo rmed in the early stages of heavy-ion collisions at very high energy density. Such probes are espe cially promising at LHC energies where heavy quarks (both c and b) are copiously produced. The ALICE detector shall measure the production of open heavy flavours and heavy quarkonium st ates in both proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions at the LHC. The expected performances of ALICE for heavy flavour physics is discussed based on the results of simulation studies on a s election of benchmark channels

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Kuligowski, Robert J.; Langston, Carrie

2013-01-01

The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real ]time configuration of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the Noah land surface model (LSM). Output from the SPoRT ]LIS run is used to initialize land surface variables for local modeling applications at select National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices, and can be displayed in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring. The SPoRT ]LIS is run over a domain covering the southern and eastern United States, fully nested within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV precipitation analysis grid, which provides precipitation forcing to the offline LIS ]Noah runs. The SPoRT Center seeks to expand the real ]time LIS domain to the entire Continental U.S. (CONUS); however, geographical limitations with the Stage IV analysis product have inhibited this expansion. Therefore, a goal of this study is to test alternative precipitation forcing datasets that can enable the LIS expansion by improving upon the current geographical limitations of the Stage IV product. The four precipitation forcing datasets that are inter ]compared on a 4 ]km resolution CONUS domain include the Stage IV, an experimental GOES quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from NESDIS/STAR, the National Mosaic and QPE (NMQ) product from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS ]2) analyses. The NLDAS ]2 dataset is used as the control run, with each of the other three datasets considered experimental runs compared against the control. The regional strengths, weaknesses, and biases of each precipitation analysis are identified relative to the NLDAS ]2 control in terms of accumulated precipitation pattern and amount, and the impacts on the subsequent LSM spin ]up simulations. The ultimate goal is to identify an alternative precipitation forcing dataset that can best support an

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Regimes in the Eastern Inland River Basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this work, we use the gridded precipitation dataset (with a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° of the eastern part of inland river basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau from 1961–2015 as the basis and adopt the methods of climatic diagnosis (e.g., the Modified Mann-Kendall method, principal component analysis, and correlation analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of six extreme precipitation indices. Furthermore, we analyzed the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO events and the observed extreme precipitation. The results indicated that the gridded dataset can be used to describe the precipitation distribution in our study area. In recent 55 years, the inter-annual variation trends of extreme precipitation indices are generally dominated by declination except for the maximum precipitation over five days (RX5DAY and the heavy precipitation (R95P, in particular, the decreasing regions of consecutive dry days (CDD accounts for 91% of the entire basin, 17.28% of which is showing the significant downward trend. Contrary to CDD, the spatial distribution of the other five indices is gradually decreasing from northeast to southwest, and the precipitation intensity (SDII ranges from 3.8–5.3 mm·d−1, with relatively small spatial differences. To some extent, CDD and R95P can used to characterize the extreme precipitation regimes. Moreover, the number of days with heavy precipitation (RR10, SDII, and R95P are more susceptible to the ENSO events. In addition, the moderate El Niño event may increase the probability of CDD, while the La Niña events may increase the risk of the heavy rainfall regime in the study area.

Preparation Of Pure Carbon From Heavy Oil Fly Ash

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ABU ZAID, A.H.M.

2010-01-01

The Egyptian production of heavy oil is approximately 12 million tons of heavy oil per year and approximately 5.3 million tons of this amount is used as fuel in the electric power stations. Based on the fact that the ash content of Egyptian heavy oil is approximately 0.2 %, about 10600 tons of fly ash is produced per/year which causes a lot of environmental problems such as dusting, release of the acidic liquids and heavy metals such as vanadium, nickel, zinc and unburned carbon. Treatment of fly ash by leaching of vanadium and zinc was carried out under different conditions to achieve the best leaching efficiency of both vanadium and zinc by sodium hydroxide. The leaching efficiency obtained was 91% for vanadium and 98% for zinc. This study was concerned with the precipitation of zinc at pH 7.5 as zinc hydroxide and the precipitation of vanadium as ammonium metavanadate at pH 8.5. Leaching of nickel, iron and other elements from the residue was carried out by 2M HCl under different conditions. The achieved leaching efficiency of nickel was 95% where as that of iron was 92%. Precipitation efficiency of both nickel and iron were 99.9%. The residue, which contains mainly unburned carbon, have been washed two times with water and dried at 200 o C then ground to < 300μm. According to the achieved analysis of the obtained carbon, it can be characterized as pure carbon

Simulation of water movement and isoproturon behaviour in a heavy clay soil using the MACRO model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. J. Besien

1997-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the dual-porosity MACRO model has been used to investigate methods of reducing leaching of isoproturon from a structured heavy clay soil. The MACRO model was applied to a pesticide leaching data-set generated from a plot scale experiment on a heavy clay soil at the Oxford University Farm, Wytham, England. The field drain was found to be the most important outflow from the plot in terms of pesticide removal. Therefore, this modelling exercise concentrated on simulating field drain flow. With calibration of field-saturated and micropore saturated hydraulic conductivity, the drain flow hydrographs were simulated during extended periods of above average rainfall, with both the hydrograph shape and peak flows agreeing well. Over the whole field season, the observed drain flow water budget was well simulated. However, the first and second drain flow events after pesticide application were not simulated satisfactorily. This is believed to be due to a poor simulation of evapotranspiration during a period of low rainfall around the pesticide application day. Apart from an initial rapid drop in the observed isoproturon soil residue, the model simulated isoproturon residues during the 100 days after pesticide application reasonably well. Finally, the calibrated model was used to show that changes in agricultural practice (deep ploughing, creating fine consolidated seed beds and organic matter applications could potentially reduce pesticide leaching to surface waters by up to 60%.

Characterization of landfill leachates and studies on heavy metal removal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ceçen, F; Gürsoy, G

2000-10-01

This study covers a thorough characterisation of landfill leachates emerging from a sanitary landfill area. The landfill leachates were obtained in the acidic stage of landfill stabilisation. Their organic content was high as reflected by the high BOD5 (5 day biological oxygen demand) and COD (chemical oxygen demand) values. They were also highly polluted in terms of the parameters TKN (total Kjeldahl nitrogen), NH4-N, alkalinity, hardness and heavy metals. Nickel was present in these wastewaters at a significant concentration. With regard to the high heavy metal content of these wastewaters, several physicochemical removal alternatives for the heavy metals Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cd, Cr, Mn and Fe were tested using coagulation, flocculation, precipitation, base addition and aeration. Additionally, COD removal and ammonia stripping were examined. Co-precipitation with either alum or iron salts did not usually lead to significantly higher heavy metal removal than lime alone. The major methods leading to an effective heavy metal removal were aeration and lime addition. Nickel and cadmium seemed to be strongly complexed and were not removed by any method. Also lead removal proved to be difficult. The results are also discussed in terms of compliance with standards.

Reburning and burnout simulations of natural gas for heavy oil combustion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Celso A. Bertran; Carla S.T. Marques; Renato V. Filho [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas (Brazil). Instituto de Quimica

2004-01-01

Reburning and burnout simulations were carried out through PLUG code of CHEMKIN-III using a reduced mechanism, in order to determine preliminary experimental parameters for achieving maximum NOx reduction to implement the reburning technology for heavy oil combustion in pilot scale equipments in Brazil. Gas compositions at the entrance of the reburning zone were estimated by the AComb program. Simulations were performed for eight conditions in the usual range of operational parameters for natural gas reburning. The maximum NO reduction (ca. 50%) was reached with 10 and 17.5% of power via natural gas and 1.5 and 3.0% O{sub 2} excess, respectively, at 1273 K. The model predicts 250 ppm of NO, 50 ppm of CO and air mass flows in the range of about 50 130 kg/h for burnout. 18 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

High dose radiation damage in nuclear energy structural materials investigated by heavy ion irradiation simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Yongnan; Xu Yongjun; Yuan Daqing

2014-01-01

Structural materials in ITER, ADS and fast reactor suffer high dose irradiations of neutrons and/or protons, that leads to severe displacement damage up to lOO dpa per year. Investigation of radiation damage induced by such a high dose irradiation has attracted great attention along with the development of nuclear energy facilities of new generation. However, it is deeply hampered for the lacking of high dose neutron and proton sources. Irradiation simulation of heavy ions produced by accelerators opens up an effective way for laboratory investigation of high dose irradiation induced radiation damage encountered in the ITER, ADS, etc. Radiation damage is caused mainly by atomic displacement in materials. The displacement rate of heavy ions is about lO 3 ∼10 7 orders higher than those of neutrons and protons. High displacement rate of heavy ions significantly reduces the irradiation time. The heavy ion irradiation simulation technique (HIIS) technique has been developed at China Institute of Atomic Energy and a series of the HIIS experiments have been performed to investigate radiation damage in stainless steels, tungsten and tantalum at irradiation temperatures from room temperature to 800 ℃ and in the irradiation dose region up to 100 dpa. The experimental results show that he radiation swelling peak for the modified stainless steel appears in the temperature region around 580 ℃ and the radiation damage is more sensitive to the temperature, the size of the radiation induced vacancy cluster or void increase with the increasing of the irradiation dose, and among the three materials the home-made modified stainless steel has the best radiation resistant property. (authors)

Survival probability of precipitations and rain attenuation in tropical and equatorial regions

Science.gov (United States)

Mohebbi Nia, Masoud; Din, Jafri; Panagopoulos, Athanasios D.; Lam, Hong Yin

2015-08-01

This contribution presents a stochastic model useful for the generation of a long-term tropospheric rain attenuation time series for Earth space or a terrestrial radio link in tropical and equatorial heavy rain regions based on the well-known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model previously employed in research in the fields of finance and economics. This model assumes typical gamma distribution for rain attenuation in heavy rain climatic regions and utilises the temporal dynamic of precipitation collected in equatorial Johor, Malaysia. Different formations of survival probability are also discussed. Furthermore, the correlation between these probabilities and the Markov process is determined, and information on the variance and autocorrelation function of rain events with respect to the particular characteristics of precipitation in this area is presented. The proposed technique proved to preserve the peculiarities of precipitation for an equatorial region and reproduce fairly good statistics of the rain attenuation correlation function that could help to improve the prediction of dynamic characteristics of rain fade events.

Simulated Fuel Economy and Emissions Performance during City and Interstate Driving for a Heavy-Duty Hybrid Truck

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daw, C. Stuart; Gao, Zhiming; Smith, David E.; Laclair, Tim J.; Pihl, Josh A.; Edwards, K. Dean

2013-04-08

We compare simulated fuel economy and emissions for both conventional and hybrid class 8 heavy-duty diesel trucks operating over multiple urban and highway driving cycles. Both light and heavy freight loads were considered, and all simulations included full aftertreatment for NOx and particulate emissions controls. The aftertreatment components included a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), urea-selective catalytic NOx reduction (SCR), and a catalyzed diesel particulate filter (DPF). Our simulated hybrid powertrain was configured with a pre-transmission parallel drive, with a single electric motor between the clutch and gearbox. A conventional HD truck with equivalent diesel engine and aftertreatment was also simulated for comparison. Our results indicate that hybridization can significantly increase HD fuel economy and improve emissions control in city driving. However, there is less potential hybridization benefit for HD highway driving. A major factor behind the reduced hybridization benefit for highway driving is that there are fewer opportunities to utilize regenerative breaking. Our aftertreatment simulations indicate that opportunities for passive DPF regeneration are much greater for both hybrid and conventional trucks during highway driving due to higher sustained exhaust temperatures. When passive DPF regeneration is extensively utilized, the fuel penalty for particulate control is virtually eliminated, except for the 0.4%-0.9% fuel penalty associated with the slightly higher exhaust backpressure.

Sewage sludge pyrolysis - the distribution of heavy metals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kistler, R.; Widmer, F.; Brunner, P.

1986-01-01

The paper informs about the heavy metal contents of sewage sludges and discusses the origin of household, industry and surface sewerage of the respective heavy metals. The study aimed at assessing whether and in how far heavy metal volatility may be checked by reducing the temperature during sewage sludge pyrolysis. The testing equipment used was made of glass/silica glass. Instead of in particles heavy metals were precipitated in the gaseous state. Except from mercury heavy metals are retained by the ashes up to temperatures from 450 to 555/sup 0/C. Due to the persistence of mercury care should be taken to keep the sewerage clear of it from the very beginning. Emissions caused by reactor materials can be avoided by choosing appropriate pyrolysis reactors.

From TRMM to GPM: How well can heavy rainfall be detected from space?

Science.gov (United States)

Prakash, Satya; Mitra, Ashis K.; Pai, D. S.; AghaKouchak, Amir

2016-02-01

In this study, we investigate the capabilities of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and the recently released Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) in detecting and estimating heavy rainfall across India. First, the study analyzes TMPA data products over a 17-year period (1998-2014). While TMPA and reference gauge-based observations show similar mean monthly variations of conditional heavy rainfall events, the multi-satellite product systematically overestimates its inter-annual variations. Categorical as well as volumetric skill scores reveal that TMPA over-detects heavy rainfall events (above 75th percentile of reference data), but it shows reasonable performance in capturing the volume of heavy rain across the country. An initial assessment of the GPM-based multi-satellite IMERG precipitation estimates for the southwest monsoon season shows notable improvements over TMPA in capturing heavy rainfall over India. The recently released IMERG shows promising results to help improve modeling of hydrological extremes (e.g., floods and landslides) using satellite observations.

Inhomogeneities detection in annual precipitation time series in Portugal using direct sequential simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Caineta, Júlio; Ribeiro, Sara; Costa, Ana Cristina; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar

2014-05-01

Climate data homogenisation is of major importance in monitoring climate change, the validation of weather forecasting, general circulation and regional atmospheric models, modelling of erosion, drought monitoring, among other studies of hydrological and environmental impacts. This happens because non-climate factors can cause time series discontinuities which may hide the true climatic signal and patterns, thus potentially bias the conclusions of those studies. In the last two decades, many methods have been developed to identify and remove these inhomogeneities. One of those is based on geostatistical simulation (DSS - direct sequential simulation), where local probability density functions (pdf) are calculated at candidate monitoring stations, using spatial and temporal neighbouring observations, and then are used for detection of inhomogeneities. This approach has been previously applied to detect inhomogeneities in four precipitation series (wet day count) from a network with 66 monitoring stations located in the southern region of Portugal (1980-2001). This study revealed promising results and the potential advantages of geostatistical techniques for inhomogeneities detection in climate time series. This work extends the case study presented before and investigates the application of the geostatistical stochastic approach to ten precipitation series that were previously classified as inhomogeneous by one of six absolute homogeneity tests (Mann-Kendall test, Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, Von Neumann ratio test, Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) for a single break, Pettit test, and Buishand range test). Moreover, a sensibility analysis is implemented to investigate the number of simulated realisations that should be used to accurately infer the local pdfs. Accordingly, the number of simulations per iteration is increased from 50 to 500, which resulted in a more representative local pdf. A set of default and recommended settings is provided, which will help

Heavy vehicle driver workload assessment. Task 7B, in-cab text message system and cellular phone use by heavy vehicle drivers in a part-task driving simulator

Science.gov (United States)

This report contains the results of a simulator study conducted to serve as a supplement to a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) heavy vehicle driver workload field study. Its purpose was the evaluation of effects of cellular phon...

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability

Science.gov (United States)

Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.

2014-12-01

This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

Pyrophosphate synthesis in iron mineral films and membranes simulating prebiotic submarine hydrothermal precipitates

Science.gov (United States)

Barge, Laura M.; Doloboff, Ivria J.; Russell, Michael J.; VanderVelde, David; White, Lauren M.; Stucky, Galen D.; Baum, Marc M.; Zeytounian, John; Kidd, Richard; Kanik, Isik

2014-03-01

Cells use three main ways of generating energy currency to drive metabolism: (i) conversion of adenosine diphosphate (ADP) to adenosine triphosphate (ATP) by the proton motive force through the rotor-stator ATP synthase; (ii) the synthesis of inorganic phosphate˜phosphate bonds via proton (or sodium) pyrophosphate synthase; or (iii) substrate-level phosphorylation through the direct donation from an active phosphoryl donor. A mechanism to produce a pyrophosphate bond as “energy currency” in prebiotic systems is one of the most important considerations for origin of life research. Baltscheffsky (1996) suggests that inorganic pyrophosphate (PO74-; PPi) may have preceded ATP/ADP as an energy storage molecule in earliest life, produced by an H+ pyrophosphatase. Here we test the hypothesis that PPi could be synthesized in inorganic precipitates simulating hydrothermal chimney structures transected by thermal and/or ionic gradients. Appreciable yields of PPi were obtained via substrate phosphorylation by acetyl phosphate within the iron sulfide/silicate precipitates at temperatures expected for an alkaline hydrothermal system. The formation of PPi only occurred in the solid phase, i.e. when both Pi and the phosphoryl donor were precipitated with Fe-sulfides or Fe-silicates. The amount of Ac-Pi incorporated into the precipitate was a significant factor in the amount of PPi that could form, and phosphate species were more effectively incorporated into the precipitate at higher temperatures (⩾50 to >85 °C). Thus, we expect that the hydrothermal precipitate would be more enriched in phosphate (and especially, Ac-Pi) near the inner margins of a hydrothermal mound where PPi formation would be at a maximum. Iron sulfide and iron silicate precipitates effectively stabilized Ac-Pi and PPi against hydrolysis (relative to hydrolysis in aqueous solution). Thus it is plausible that PPi could accumulate as an energy currency up to useful concentrations for early life in a

Dynamic pore network simulator for modelling buoyancy-driven migration during depressurisation of heavy-oil systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ezeuko, C.C.; McDougall, S.R. [Heriot-Watt Univ., Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Bondino, I. [Total E and P UK Ltd., London (United Kingdom); Hamon, G. [Total S.A., Paris (France)

2008-10-15

In an attempt to investigate the impact of gravitational forces on gas evolution during solution gas drive, a number of vertically-oriented heavy oil depletion experiments have been conducted. Some of the results of these studies suggest the occurrence of gas migration during these tests. However, a major limitation of these experiments is the difficulty in visualizing the process in reservoir rock samples. Experimental observations using transparent glass models have been useful in this context and provide a sound physical basis for modelling gravitational gas migration in gas-oil systems. This paper presented a new pore network simulator that was capable of modelling the time-dependent migration of growing gas structures. Multiple pore filling events were dynamically modelled with interface tracking allowing the full range of migratory behaviours to be reproduced, including braided migration and discontinuous dispersed flow. Simulation results were compared with experiments and were found to be in excellent agreement. The paper presented the model and discussed the implication of evolution regime on recovery from heavy oil systems undergoing depressurization. The simulation results demonstrated the complex interaction of a number of network and fluid parameters. It was concluded that the concomitant effect on the competition between capillarity and buoyancy produced different gas evolution patterns during pressure depletion. 28 refs., 2 tabs., 19 figs.

Innovative developments in the selective removal and reuse of heavy metals from wastewaters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veeken, A.H.M.; Rulkens, W.H.

2003-01-01

Sulphide precipitation of heavy metal containing wastewaters results in low effluent concentrations. However, sulphide precipitation is not widely applied in practice because the dosing of sulphide cannot adequately be controlled. A new process was developed where the combination of a

Coupled atmosphere ocean climate model simulations in the Mediterranean region: effect of a high-resolution marine model on cyclones and precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Sanna

2013-06-01

Full Text Available In this study we investigate the importance of an eddy-permitting Mediterranean Sea circulation model on the simulation of atmospheric cyclones and precipitation in a climate model. This is done by analyzing results of two fully coupled GCM (general circulation models simulations, differing only for the presence/absence of an interactive marine module, at very high-resolution (~ 1/16°, for the simulation of the 3-D circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. Cyclones are tracked by applying an objective Lagrangian algorithm to the MSLP (mean sea level pressure field. On annual basis, we find a statistically significant difference in vast cyclogenesis regions (northern Adriatic, Sirte Gulf, Aegean Sea and southern Turkey and in lifetime, giving evidence of the effect of both land–sea contrast and surface heat flux intensity and spatial distribution on cyclone characteristics. Moreover, annual mean convective precipitation changes significantly in the two model climatologies as a consequence of differences in both air–sea interaction strength and frequency of cyclogenesis in the two analyzed simulations.

Numerical simulation studies of the LBNL heavy-ion beam combiner experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fawley, W.M.; Seidl, P.; Haber, I.; Friedman, A.; Grote, D.P.

1997-01-01

Transverse beam combining is a cost-saving option employed in many designs for heavy-ion inertial fusion energy drivers. A major area of interest, both theoretically and experimentally, is the resultant transverse phase space dilution during the beam merging process. Currently, a prototype combining experiment is underway at LBNL and we have employed a variety of numerical descriptions to aid in both the initial design of the experiment data. These range from simple envelope codes to detailed 2- and 3-D PIC simulations. We compare the predictions of the different numerical models to each other and to experimental data at different longitudinal positions

NWP-Based Adjustment of IMERG Precipitation for Flood-Inducing Complex Terrain Storms: Evaluation over CONUS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinxuan Zhang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the use of precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction (NWP model for near-real-time satellite precipitation adjustment based on 81 flood-inducing heavy precipitation events in seven mountainous regions over the conterminous United States. The study is facilitated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR real-time ensemble forecasts (called model, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG near-real-time precipitation product (called raw IMERG and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product (called Stage IV used as a reference. We evaluated four precipitation datasets (the model forecasts, raw IMERG, gauge-adjusted IMERG and model-adjusted IMERG through comparisons against Stage IV at six-hourly and event length scales. The raw IMERG product consistently underestimated heavy precipitation in all study regions, while the domain average rainfall magnitudes exhibited by the model were fairly accurate. The model exhibited error in the locations of intense precipitation over inland regions, however, while the IMERG product generally showed correct spatial precipitation patterns. Overall, the model-adjusted IMERG product performed best over inland regions by taking advantage of the more accurate rainfall magnitude from NWP and the spatial distribution from IMERG. In coastal regions, although model-based adjustment effectively improved the performance of the raw IMERG product, the model forecast performed even better. The IMERG product could benefit from gauge-based adjustment, as well, but the improvement from model-based adjustment was consistently more significant.

Real-Time Chord Length Analysis of Strontium and Manganese Precipitates Formed from Hanford Tank 241-AN-107 Simulant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

KING, WILLIAMD

2004-01-01

Removal of radioactive strontium and transuranic elements from Hanford Envelope C waste solutions can be accomplished by the sequential addition of sodium hydroxide, strontium nitrate, and sodium permanganate solutions. This multistep precipitation process is the baseline technology in the River Protection Project -Waste Treatment Plant (RPP-WTP) for the removal of these radioactive species from Hanford Waste Tanks. Decontamination targets are easily met using these precipitation technologies and current work in this area focuses on optimization to minimize reagent levels. Downstream treatment processes require filtration of the precipitate slurry. In order to avoid further precipitation after filtration, it is necessary to know the precipitation reaction time-scale. In addition, precipitate slurry filter flux is a primary parameter of interest to plant design personnel. Optimization of the filtration process is benefited by an understanding of the parameters that impact particle size distribution. Filter cake packing and, hence, filter flux are often sensitive to small changes in the particle size distribution. However, traditional methods of particle size analysis often are not sufficiently sensitive to develop correlations to filterability. Focused Beam Reflectance Measurements (FBRM) are a relatively new chord length analysis method with extremely high sensitivity. The method is suited for continuous monitoring of chord length distributions in the process medium. The instrument is equipped with statistical data analysis software for the identification of small shifts in the population. Reported herein are the results of FBRM analysis of strontium and manganese precipitation tests with Hanford AN-107 simulant. The objectives of the testing were to: (1) evaluate the impacts of precipitation parameters (temperature and reagent levels) upon the strontium and manganese particle chord length distributions; (2) evaluate the stability of the particles under shear; (3

A Numerical Study of Vortex and Precipitating Cloud Merging in Middle Latitudes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

PING Fan; LUO Zhe-Xian; JU Jian-Hua

2006-01-01

@@ We mainly focus on the study of precipitating cloud merging associated with vortex merging. The vortex and precipitating cloud merging are simulated by the cloud resolving model from 0000 21 to 1800 23 July 2003. The results show that the model well simulates vortex circulation associated with precipitating clouds. It is also proven that the vortex merging follows the precipitating cloud merging although vortices show the spatial and temporal differences. The convection vorticity vector is introduced to describe the merging processes. Two merging cases are identified during the 42-h simulation and are studied.

Experimental and numerical simulation the effect of distribution plates in a mobile electrostatic precipitator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noorpoor, A. R.; Sadeghi, M.

2003-01-01

In this investigation, behaviour of airflow inside an electrostatic precipitator with three different distribution plates has been considered by means of numerical and experimental methods and results have been compared together. This device has been designed and produced in this center for the first time in Iran, and its ability to absorb particles, haze and soot is good. But for increasing the efficiency there must be some changes to an miscellaneous sections. Therefore, here we consider the effect of distribution plates to increase performance, because when distribution flow at cross sections of precipitator is uniform, the efficiency will increase. To have a numerical simulation, fluent software version 5.3 was and for modeling turbulence the RNG k-Σ turbulent model applied. This program after discretization governing equations on a body fitted coordinate system, that is produced in preprocessor, integrates this equations on control volumes and determines the rate of quantities on control volume faces using order two (upwind)approximations. Finally by means of a pitot tube velocity magnitude of fluid in two sections of domain was measured and compared with numerical results which shows a good agreement. After simulation the three model, e.g. without distribution plate, with a distribution plate after inlet duct and with two distribution plates (one after inlet duct and before outlet duct), and taking some results and by comparing them, we conclude that use of combined distribution plate can give a good result

Can small island mountains provide relief from the Subtropical Precipitation Decline? Simulating future precipitation regimes for small island nations using high resolution Regional Climate Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowden, J.; Terando, A. J.; Misra, V.; Wootten, A.

2017-12-01

Small island nations are vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle because of their limited water resources. This risk to water security is likely even higher in sub-tropical regions where anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is expected to lead to a drier future (the so-called `dry-get-drier' pattern). However, high-resolution numerical modeling experiments have also shown an enhancement of existing orographically-influenced precipitation patterns on islands with steep topography, potentially mitigating subtropical drying on windward mountain sides. Here we explore the robustness of the near-term (25-45 years) subtropical precipitation decline (SPD) across two island groupings in the Caribbean, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These islands, forming the boundary between the Greater and Lesser Antilles, significantly differ in size, topographic relief, and orientation to prevailing winds. Two 2-km horizontal resolution regional climate model simulations are used to downscale a total of three different GCMs under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. Results indicate some possibility for modest increases in precipitation at the leading edge of the Luquillo Mountains in Puerto Rico, but consistent declines elsewhere. We conclude with a discussion of potential explanations for these patterns and the attendant risks to water security that subtropical small island nations could face as the climate warms.

The Influence of Aerosol Hygroscopicity on Precipitation Intensity During a Mesoscale Convective Event

Science.gov (United States)

Kawecki, Stacey; Steiner, Allison L.

2018-01-01

We examine how aerosol composition affects precipitation intensity using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry (version 3.6). By changing the prescribed default hygroscopicity values to updated values from laboratory studies, we test model assumptions about individual component hygroscopicity values of ammonium, sulfate, nitrate, and organic species. We compare a baseline simulation (BASE, using default hygroscopicity values) with four sensitivity simulations (SULF, increasing the sulfate hygroscopicity; ORG, decreasing organic hygroscopicity; SWITCH, using a concentration-dependent hygroscopicity value for ammonium; and ALL, including all three changes) to understand the role of aerosol composition on precipitation during a mesoscale convective system (MCS). Overall, the hygroscopicity changes influence the spatial patterns of precipitation and the intensity. Focusing on the maximum precipitation in the model domain downwind of an urban area, we find that changing the individual component hygroscopicities leads to bulk hygroscopicity changes, especially in the ORG simulation. Reducing bulk hygroscopicity (e.g., ORG simulation) initially causes fewer activated drops, weakened updrafts in the midtroposphere, and increased precipitation from larger hydrometeors. Increasing bulk hygroscopicity (e.g., SULF simulation) simulates more numerous and smaller cloud drops and increases precipitation. In the ALL simulation, a stronger cold pool and downdrafts lead to precipitation suppression later in the MCS evolution. In this downwind region, the combined changes in hygroscopicity (ALL) reduces the overprediction of intense events (>70 mm d-1) and better captures the range of moderate intensity (30-60 mm d-1) events. The results of this single MCS analysis suggest that aerosol composition can play an important role in simulating high-intensity precipitation events.

Photodegradation of Acid Black 1 and Removing Heavy Metals from the Water by an Inorganic Nanocomposite Synthesized via Simple Co-Precipitation Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marziyeh Mohammadi

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In this experimental work, PbS/ZnS/ZnO nanocomposite was synthesized via a simple co-precipitation method. The effect of Zn2+/Pb2+ mole ratio was investigated on the product size and morphology. The products were characterized via scanning electron microscopy to obtain product size and morphology. The optical properties of the nanocomposites were studied by ultra violet-visible spectroscopy. Photocatalytic activity of the product was examine by decomposition of acid black 1 as dye. To investigation of the effect of as synthesized nanocomposite on the water treatment, the influences of the nanocomposite to remove heavy ions was studied by atomic absorption spectroscopy. The results showed that the synthesized nanocomposite has well optical properties, photocatalytic and water treatment activities.

Potential for added value in precipitation simulated by high-resolution nested Regional Climate Models and observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Di Luca, Alejandro; Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal (UQAM), Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Departement des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere, PK-6530, Succ. Centre-ville, B.P. 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); De Elia, Ramon [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Ouranos Consortium, Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal (Canada)

2012-03-15

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) constitute the most often used method to perform affordable high-resolution regional climate simulations. The key issue in the evaluation of nested regional models is to determine whether RCM simulations improve the representation of climatic statistics compared to the driving data, that is, whether RCMs add value. In this study we examine a necessary condition that some climate statistics derived from the precipitation field must satisfy in order that the RCM technique can generate some added value: we focus on whether the climate statistics of interest contain some fine spatial-scale variability that would be absent on a coarser grid. The presence and magnitude of fine-scale precipitation variance required to adequately describe a given climate statistics will then be used to quantify the potential added value (PAV) of RCMs. Our results show that the PAV of RCMs is much higher for short temporal scales (e.g., 3-hourly data) than for long temporal scales (16-day average data) due to the filtering resulting from the time-averaging process. PAV is higher in warm season compared to cold season due to the higher proportion of precipitation falling from small-scale weather systems in the warm season. In regions of complex topography, the orographic forcing induces an extra component of PAV, no matter the season or the temporal scale considered. The PAV is also estimated using high-resolution datasets based on observations allowing the evaluation of the sensitivity of changing resolution in the real climate system. The results show that RCMs tend to reproduce relatively well the PAV compared to observations although showing an overestimation of the PAV in warm season and mountainous regions. (orig.)

Monsoon effect simulation on typhoon rainfall potential - Typhoon Morakot (2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi-Ling Chang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A record breaking extreme precipitation event produced 3000 mm day-1 of accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The interactions between Typhoon Morakot and the prevailing southwesterly (SW monsoon are the primary mechanism for this heavy precipitation during 5 - 13 August 2009. This extreme precipitation could be produced by the abundant moisture from the SW monsoon associated with the interaction between typhoon and monsoon wind fields, leading to severe property damage. The accurate mapping of extreme precipitation caused from the interaction between a monsoon and typhoon is critical for early warning in Taiwan. This study simulates the heavy rainfall event is based on the Weather Research and Forecast system model (WRF using the three nested domain configuration. Using data assimilation with a virtual meteorological field using the 3D-Var system, such as wind field to alter the SW monsoon strength in the initial condition, the impacts of intensified convergence and water vapor content on the accumulated rainfall are analyzed to quantize the intensification of typhoon rainfall potential. The results showed a positive correlation between the enhanced precipitation and the intensity of low-level wind speed convergence as well as water vapor content. For the Typhoon Morakot case study the rainfall for could attain approximately 2 × 104 mm at 6 hours interval in the southern Taiwan area when 10 × 10-6 s-1 convergence intensified at 850 hPa level around the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. These results suggest that low-level wind speed, convergence and water vapor content play key roles in the typhoon rainfall potential coupled with the SW monsoon.

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

2012-01-01

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

First evaluation of the utility of GPM precipitation in global flood monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, H.; Yan, Y.; Gao, Z.

2017-12-01

The Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) has been developed and used to provide real-time flood detection and streamflow estimates over the last few years with significant success shown by validation against global flood event data sets and observed streamflow variations (Wu et al., 2014). It has become a tool for various national and international organizations to appraise flood conditions in various areas, including where rainfall and hydrology information is limited. The GFMS has been using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as its main rainfall input. Now, with the advent of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission there is an opportunity to significantly improve global flood monitoring and forecasting. GPM's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) multi-satellite product is designed to take advantage of various technical advances in the field and combine that with an efficient processing system producing "early" (4 hrs) and "late" (12 hrs) products for operational use. Specifically, this study is focused on (1) understanding the difference between the new IMERG products and other existing satellite precipitation products, e.g., TMPA, CMORPH, and ground observations; (2) addressing the challenge in the usage of the IMERG for flood monitoring through hydrologic models, given that only a short period of precipitation data record has been accumulated since the lunch of GPM in 2014; and (3) comparing the statistics of flood simulation based on the DRIVE model with IMERG, TMPA, CMORPH etc. as precipitation inputs respectively. Derivation of a global threshold map is a necessary step to define flood events out of modelling results, which requires a relatively longer historic information. A set of sensitivity tests are conducted by adjusting IMERG's light, moderate, heavy rain to existing precipitation products with long-term records separately, to optimize the strategy of PDF matching. Other aspects are also examined

Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East based on Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

KAUST Repository

de Vries, A. J.

2017-12-26

Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99th (97.5th) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40-70%), heavy precipitation days (50-80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60-90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

Science.gov (United States)

de Vries, A. J.; Ouwersloot, H. G.; Feldstein, S. B.; Riemer, M.; El Kenawy, A. M.; McCabe, M. F.; Lelieveld, J.

2018-01-01

Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99th (97.5th) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40-70%), heavy precipitation days (50-80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60-90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability, and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Precipitation and runoff simulations of select perennial and ephemeral watersheds in the middle Carson River basin, Eagle, Dayton, and Churchill Valleys, west-central Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

Jeton, Anne E.; Maurer, Douglas K.

2011-01-01

The effect that land use may have on streamflow in the Carson River, and ultimately its impact on downstream users can be evaluated by simulating precipitation-runoff processes and estimating groundwater inflow in the middle Carson River in west-central Nevada. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, began a study in 2008 to evaluate groundwater flow in the Carson River basin extending from Eagle Valley to Churchill Valley, called the middle Carson River basin in this report. This report documents the development and calibration of 12 watershed models and presents model results and the estimated mean annual water budgets for the modeled watersheds. This part of the larger middle Carson River study will provide estimates of runoff tributary to the Carson River and the potential for groundwater inflow (defined here as that component of recharge derived from percolation of excess water from the soil zone to the groundwater reservoir). The model used for the study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Models were developed for 2 perennial watersheds in Eagle Valley having gaged daily mean runoff, Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek, and for 10 ephemeral watersheds in the Dayton Valley and Churchill Valley hydrologic areas. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for the 2 perennial watersheds and for the 10 ephemeral watersheds by limited indirect runoff estimates and by mean annual runoff estimates derived from empirical methods. The models were further constrained by limited climate data adjusted for altitude differences using annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study. The calibration periods were water years 1980-2007 for Ash Canyon Creek, and water years 1991-2007 for Clear Creek. To

Overview of theory and simulations in the Heavy Ion Fusion Science Virtual National Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Alex

2007-07-01

The Heavy Ion Fusion Science Virtual National Laboratory (HIFS-VNL) is a collaboration of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. These laboratories, in cooperation with researchers at other institutions, are carrying out a coordinated effort to apply intense ion beams as drivers for studies of the physics of matter at extreme conditions, and ultimately for inertial fusion energy. Progress on this endeavor depends upon coordinated application of experiments, theory, and simulations. This paper describes the state of the art, with an emphasis on the coordination of modeling and experiment; developments in the simulation tools, and in the methods that underly them, are also treated.

Connecting Urbanization to Precipitation: the case of Mexico City

Science.gov (United States)

Georgescu, Matei

2017-04-01

Considerable evidence exists illustrating the influence of urban environments on precipitation. We revisit this theme of significant interest to a broad spectrum of disciplines ranging from urban planning to engineering to urban numerical modeling and climate, by detailing the simulated effect of Mexico City's built environment on regional precipitation. Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system to determine spatiotemporal changes in near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and boundary layer conditions induced by the modern-day urban landscape relative to presettlement conditions, I mechanistically link the built environment-induced increase in air temperature to simulated increases in rainfall during the evening hours. This simulated increase in precipitation is in agreement with historical observations documenting observed rainfall increase. These results have important implications for understanding the meteorological conditions leading to the widespread and recurrent urban flooding that continues to plague the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

Precipitated iron. A limit on gettering efficacy in multicrystalline silicon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fenning, D.P.; Hofstetter, J.; Bertoni, M.I.; Buonassisi, T. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 (United States); Coletti, G. [ECN Solar Energy, Westerduinweg 3, NL-1755 LE Petten (Netherlands); Lai, B. [Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439 (United States); Del Canizo, C. [Instituto de Energia Solar, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2013-01-31

A phosphorus diffusion gettering model is used to examine the efficacy of a standard gettering process on interstitial and precipitated iron in multicrystalline silicon. The model predicts a large concentration of precipitated iron remaining after standard gettering for most as-grown iron distributions. Although changes in the precipitated iron distribution are predicted to be small, the simulated post-processing interstitial iron concentration is predicted to depend strongly on the as-grown distribution of precipitates, indicating that precipitates must be considered as internal sources of contamination during processing. To inform and validate the model, the iron distributions before and after a standard phosphorus diffusion step are studied in samples from the bottom, middle, and top of an intentionally Fe-contaminated laboratory ingot. A census of iron-silicide precipitates taken by synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence microscopy confirms the presence of a high density of iron-silicide precipitates both before and after phosphorus diffusion. A comparable precipitated iron distribution was measured in a sister wafer after hydrogenation during a firing step. The similar distributions of precipitated iron seen after each step in the solar cell process confirm that the effect of standard gettering on precipitated iron is strongly limited as predicted by simulation. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated data supports the hypothesis that gettering kinetics is governed by not only the total iron concentration but also by the distribution of precipitated iron. Finally, future directions based on the modeling are suggested for the improvement of effective minority carrier lifetime in multicrystalline silicon solar cells.

The GNSS polarimetric radio-occultation technique to sense precipitation events: a new concept to be tested aboard PAZ Low Earth Satellite

Science.gov (United States)

Tomás, Sergio; Oliveras, Santi; Cardellach, Estel; Rius, Antonio

2013-04-01

The Radio Occultation and Heavy Precipitation (ROHP) experiment, to be conducted aboard the Spanish PAZ satellite, consists of a radio occultation (RO) mission provided with dual-polarization capabilities. The research with polarimetric RO data has the goal of assessing the capabilities and limitations of this technique to infer profiles of heavy precipitation. The technique aims to provide vertical profiles of precipitation simultaneously to the vertical profiles of thermodynamic parameters (standard RO products) perfectly collocated both in space and time. If successful, the polarimetric RO will represent the first technique able to provide these complementary information on precipitation. This is a relevant input for studies on heavy and violent rainfall events, which being poorly represented by the current-generation of Numerical Weather Prediction and General Circulation Models appear to be difficult to forecast on all time-scales. The Low Earth Orbiter hosting this experiment, to be launched in 2013, will orbit at 500 km altitude in a near-Polar orbit. The Radio Occulation payload includes a RO GNSS receiver and a dual polarization (H/V) limb oriented antenna to capture the signals of setting GNSS transmitters. NOAA and UCAR participate in the ground-segment of the radiometric experiment to enable near-real time dissemination of the level-1 standard RO products. The space-based GNSS RO technique scans the atmosphere vertically at fine resolution (close to 300 meter in the troposphere) by precisely measure the delay between a GNSS transmitter and a GNSS receiver aboard a Low Earth Orbiter, when the former is setting below or rising above the Earth limb. The standard, thermodynamical, products are extracted from the excess delay induced by the atmosphere at different layers. This presentation will not focus on this well-established application, but a novel concept using polarimetry to also retrieve rain information. The precipitation-measurement principle is

SIMULATION STUDY OF LONGITUDINAL FORCES IN THE COUPLING DEVICE OF HEAVY FREIGHT TRAINS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Józef Stokłosa

2014-03-01

Full Text Available On the LHS line (Broad-gauge Metallurgical Line, far out West of the railway line with a gauge of 1520 mm, heavy goods trains for a gross weight 5500 tons and a length of 850 m are operated. The article presents the results of a simulation study of the forces that occur in the automatic coupling device of SA-3 type of Russian production train consisting of 60 coal wagons of Russian construction of gross mass 91 tons each. The train moves on the 1520 mm gauge tracks curve S type (the radius of curvature of curves 300 m. Simulation studies were conducted using the Train Module of program to dynamic study multi-elements systems of Universal Mechanism UM 6.0.

Spatial-Scale Characteristics of Precipitation Simulated by Regional Climate Models and the Implications for Hydrological Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, S.H.; Christensen, J. H.; Drews, Martin

2012-01-01

Precipitation simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) is generally biased with respect to observations, especially at the local scale of a few tens of kilometers. This study investigates how well two different RCMs are able to reproduce the spatial correlation patterns of observed summer...... length scales on the order of 130 km are found in both observed data and RCM simulations. When simulations and observations are aggregated to different grid sizes, the pattern correlation significantly decreases when the aggregation length is less than roughly 100 km. Furthermore, the intermodel standard......, reflecting larger predictive certainty of the RCMs at larger scales. The findings on aggregated grid scales are shown to be largely independent of the underlying RCMs grid resolutions but not of the overall size of RCM domain. With regard to hydrological modeling applications, these findings indicate...

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

Science.gov (United States)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

Bioremoval of heavy metals by bacterial biomass.

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Mahendra; Liakopoulou-Kyriakides, Maria

2015-01-01

Heavy metals are among the most common pollutants found in the environment. Health problems due to the heavy metal pollution become a major concern throughout the world, and therefore, various treatment technologies such as reverse osmosis, ion exchange, solvent extraction, chemical precipitation, and adsorption are adopted to reduce or eliminate their concentration in the environment. Biosorption is a cost-effective and environmental friendly technique, and it can be used for detoxification of heavy metals in industrial effluents as an alternative treatment technology. Biosorption characteristics of various bacterial species are reviewed here with respect to the results reported so far. The role of physical, chemical, and biological modification of bacterial cells for heavy metal removal is presented. The paper evaluates the different kinetic, equilibrium, and thermodynamic models used in bacterial sorption of heavy metals. Biomass characterization and sorption mechanisms as well as elution of metal ions and regeneration of biomass are also discussed.

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Experimental and computational study of nitride precipitation in a CrMnN austenitic stainless steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pettersson, Niklas; Frisk, Karin; Fluch, Rainer

2017-01-01

The austenitic CrMnN stainless steels are high-strength, tough, and non-magnetic, and are used in oil field applications. The steels have high alloying contents, and precipitation of Cr-nitrides and/or intermetallic phases can occur when cooling through the temperature region 950–700 °C. The nitride precipitates appear in the grain boundaries but can be difficult to observe in the microstructure due to their small size. However, there is an effect of precipitation on corrosion and impact strength and a modelling approach to predict precipitation is valuable for alloy and process development. In the present work precipitation simulations were applied to a CrMnN steel composition, and coupled to experimental investigations after heat treatments at 700 and 800 °C. The early stages, with short heat-treatment times, were studied. The simulations were performed using TC-PRISMA, a software for calculation of multiphase precipitation kinetics, using multicomponent nucleation and growth models. Dedicated thermodynamic and kinetic databases were used for the simulations. The main precipitate was identified by experiments and simulations to be the Cr 2 N nitride, and the precipitation during isothermal heat treatments was investigated. Isothermal precipitation diagrams are simulated, and the influence of precipitation kinetics on toughness is discussed.

Experimental and computational study of nitride precipitation in a CrMnN austenitic stainless steel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pettersson, Niklas, E-mail: niklas.pettersson@swerea.se [Swerea KIMAB AB, P.O. Box 7047, 164 07 Kista (Sweden); Frisk, Karin [Swerea KIMAB AB, P.O. Box 7047, 164 07 Kista (Sweden); Fluch, Rainer [Böhler Edelstahl Gmbh, Mariazeller Strasse 25, 8605 Kapfenberg (Austria)

2017-01-27

The austenitic CrMnN stainless steels are high-strength, tough, and non-magnetic, and are used in oil field applications. The steels have high alloying contents, and precipitation of Cr-nitrides and/or intermetallic phases can occur when cooling through the temperature region 950–700 °C. The nitride precipitates appear in the grain boundaries but can be difficult to observe in the microstructure due to their small size. However, there is an effect of precipitation on corrosion and impact strength and a modelling approach to predict precipitation is valuable for alloy and process development. In the present work precipitation simulations were applied to a CrMnN steel composition, and coupled to experimental investigations after heat treatments at 700 and 800 °C. The early stages, with short heat-treatment times, were studied. The simulations were performed using TC-PRISMA, a software for calculation of multiphase precipitation kinetics, using multicomponent nucleation and growth models. Dedicated thermodynamic and kinetic databases were used for the simulations. The main precipitate was identified by experiments and simulations to be the Cr{sub 2}N nitride, and the precipitation during isothermal heat treatments was investigated. Isothermal precipitation diagrams are simulated, and the influence of precipitation kinetics on toughness is discussed.

Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, O.; Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Weerts, A. H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2012-09-01

Sound spatially distributed rainfall fields including a proper spatial and temporal error structure are of key interest for hydrologists to force hydrological models and to identify uncertainties in the simulated and forecasted catchment response. The current paper presents a temporally coherent error identification method based on time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulations, which are conditioned on preceding simulations. A sensitivity analysis and real-world experiment are carried out within the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. Precipitation fields are simulated for pixels of 10 km × 10 km resolution. Uncertainty analyses in the simulated fields focus on (1) the number of previous simulation hours on which the new simulation is conditioned, (2) the advection speed of the rainfall event, (3) the size of the catchment considered, and (4) the rain gauge density within the catchment. The results for a sensitivity analysis show for typical advection speeds >20 km h-1, no uncertainty is added in terms of across ensemble spread when conditioned on more than one or two previous hourly simulations. However, for the real-world experiment, additional uncertainty can still be added when conditioning on a larger number of previous simulations. This is because for actual precipitation fields, the dynamics exhibit a larger spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, by thinning the observation network with 50%, the added uncertainty increases only slightly and the cross-validation shows that the simulations at the unobserved locations are unbiased. Finally, the first-order autocorrelation coefficients show clear temporal coherence in the time series of the areal precipitation using the time-dependent multivariate conditional simulations, which was not the case using the time-independent univariate conditional simulations. The presented work can be easily implemented within a hydrological calibration and data assimilation framework and can be used as an

Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James

2017-08-01

Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Event Generators for Simulating Heavy Ion Interactions of Interest in Evaluating Risks in Human Spaceflight

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Thomas L.; Pinsky, Lawrence; Andersen, Victor; Empl, Anton; Lee, Kerry; Smirmov, Georgi; Zapp, Neal; Ferrari, Alfredo; Tsoulou, Katerina; Roesler, Stefan;

Asphaltene laboratory assessment of a heavy onshore reservoir during pressure, temperature and composition variations to predict asphaltene onset pressure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bahrami, Peyman; Ahmadi, Yaser [Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Kharrat, Riyaz [Petroleum University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mahdavi, Sedigheh; James, Lesley [Memorial University of Newfoundland, Saint John' s (Canada)

2015-02-15

An Iranian heavy oil reservoir recently encountered challenges in oil production rate, and further investigation has proven that asphaltene precipitation was the root cause of this problem. In addition, CO{sub 2} gas injection could be an appropriate remedy to enhance the production of heavy crudes. In this study, high pressure-high temperature asphaltene precipitation experiments were performed at different temperatures and pressures to investigate the asphaltene phase behavior during the natural depletion process and CO{sub 2} gas injection. Compositional modeling of experimental data predicted onset points at different temperatures which determine the zone of maximum probability of asphaltene precipitation for the studied heavy oil reservoir. Also, the effect of CO{sub 2} gas injection was investigated as a function of CO{sub 2} concentration and pressure. It was found that a CO{sub 2}-oil ratio of 40% is the optimum for limiting precipitation to have the least formation damage and surface instrument contamination.

Computer simulation of hydrogen diffusion and hydride precipitation at Ta/Zr bond interface. Hydrogen embrittlement in SUS304ULC/Ta/Zr explosive bonded joint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saida, Kazuyoshi; Fujimoto, Tetsuya; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

2010-01-01

The concentration of hydrogen and precipitation of zirconium hydrides in Ta/Zr explosive bonded joint were analysed by computer simulation. Numerical model of hydride precipitation under hydrogen diffusion was simplified by the alternate model coupled the macroscopic hydrogen diffusion with the microscopic hydride precipitation. Effects of the initial hydrogen content in Ta, working degree of Zr and post-bond heat treatment on the hydrogen diffusion and hydride precipitation were investigated. Hydrogen was rapidly diffused from Ta substrate into Zr after explosive bonding and temporarily concentrated at Ta/Zr bond interface. Zirconium hydrides were precipitated and grew at Ta/Zr bond interface, and the precipitation zone of hydrides was enlarged with the lapse of time. The precipitation of zirconium hydrides was promoted when the initial hydrogen content in Ta and working degree of Zr were increased. The concentration of hydrogen and precipitation of hydrides at the bond interface were reduced and diminished by post-bond heat treatment at 373 K. It was deduced that hydrogen embrittlement in Ta/Zr explosive bonded joint was caused by the precipitation of zirconium hydrides and concentration of hydrogen at Ta/Zr bond interface during the diffusion of hydrogen containing in Ta substrate. (author)

Kinetics modeling of precipitation with characteristic shape during post-implantation annealing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun-Dar Li

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, we investigated the precipitation with characteristic shape in the microstructure during post-implantation annealing via a theoretical modeling approach. The processes of precipitates formation and evolution during phase separation were based on a nucleation and growth mechanism of atomic diffusion. Different stages of the precipitation, including the nucleation, growth and coalescence, were distinctly revealed in the numerical simulations. In addition, the influences of ion dose, temperature and crystallographic symmetry on the processes of faceted precipitation were also demonstrated. To comprehend the kinetic mechanism, the simulation results were further analyzed quantitatively by the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (KJMA equation. The Avrami exponents obtained from the regression curves varied from 1.47 to 0.52 for different conditions. With the increase of ion dose and temperature, the nucleation and growth of precipitations were expedited in accordance with the shortened incubation time and the raised coefficient of growth rate. A miscellaneous shape of precipitates in various crystallographic symmetry systems could be simulated through this anisotropic model. From the analyses of the kinetics, more fundamental information about the nucleation and growth mechanism of faceted precipitation during post-implantation annealing was acquired for future application.

Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-11-01

In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

Precipitation of metal sulphides using gaseous hydrogen sulphide: mathematical modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Al Tarazi, M.Y.M.; Heesink, Albertus B.M.; Versteeg, Geert

2004-01-01

A mathematical model has been developed that describes the precipitation of metal sulffides in an aqueous solution containing two different heavy metal ions. The solution is assumed to consist of a well-mixed bulk and a boundary layer that is contacted with hydrogen sulphide gas. The model makes use

Precipitation of metal sulphides using gaseous hydrogen sulphide : mathematical modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tarazi, Mousa Al-; Heesink, A. Bert M.; Versteeg, Geert F.

2004-01-01

A mathematical model has been developed that describes the precipitation of metal sulphides in an aqueous solution containing two different heavy metal ions. The solution is assumed to consist of a well-mixed bulk and a boundary layer that is contacted with hydrogen sulphide gas. The model makes use

Heavy vehicle simulator operations: protocol for instrumentation, data collection and data storage - 2nd draft

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Jones, DJ

2002-09-01

Full Text Available The instrumentation used is discussed under the relevant sections. Keywords: Accelerated pavement testing (APT), Heavy Vehicle Simulator (HVS) Proposals for implementation: Follow protocol in all future HVS testing. Update as required... future HVS testing. The protocol discusses staffing, site selection and establishment, and data collection, analysis and storage. 1.2. Accelerated Pavement Testing Accelerated Pavement Testing (APT) can be described as a controlled application...

Encoding information into precipitation structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martens, Kirsten; Bena, Ioana; Droz, Michel; Rácz, Zoltan

2008-01-01

Material design at submicron scales would be profoundly affected if the formation of precipitation patterns could be easily controlled. It would allow the direct building of bulk structures, in contrast to traditional techniques which consist of removing material in order to create patterns. Here, we discuss an extension of our recent proposal of using electrical currents to control precipitation bands which emerge in the wake of reaction fronts in A + + B – → C reaction–diffusion processes. Our main result, based on simulating the reaction–diffusion–precipitation equations, is that the dynamics of the charged agents can be guided by an appropriately designed time-dependent electric current so that, in addition to the control of the band spacing, the width of the precipitation bands can also be tuned. This makes straightforward the encoding of information into precipitation patterns and, as an amusing example, we demonstrate the feasibility by showing how to encode a musical rhythm

Effects of model resolution and parameterizations on the simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seoung Soo; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Yuwei; Yoo, Hyelim; Kim, Seungbum; Kim, Byung-Gon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Mok, Jungbin; Um, Junshik; Ock Choi, Kyoung; Dong, Danhong

2018-01-01

This study investigates the roles played by model resolution and microphysics parameterizations in the well-known uncertainties or errors in simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. For this investigation, we used cloud-system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations as benchmark simulations that adopt high-resolution and full-fledged microphysical processes. These simulations were evaluated against observations, and this evaluation demonstrated that the CSRM simulations can function as benchmark simulations. Comparisons between the CSRM simulations and the simulations at the coarse resolutions that are generally adopted by current NWP models indicate that the use of coarse resolutions as in the NWP models can lower not only updrafts and other cloud variables (e.g., cloud mass, condensation, deposition, and evaporation) but also their sensitivity to increasing aerosol concentration. The parameterization of the saturation process plays an important role in the sensitivity of cloud variables to aerosol concentrations. while the parameterization of the sedimentation process has a substantial impact on how cloud variables are distributed vertically. The variation in cloud variables with resolution is much greater than what happens with varying microphysics parameterizations, which suggests that the uncertainties in the NWP simulations are associated with resolution much more than microphysics parameterizations.

Coarsening kinetics of γ' precipitates in the Ni-Al-Mo system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Tao; Sheng Guang; Liu Zikui; Chen Longqing

2008-01-01

The effect of Mo on the microstructure evolution and coarsening kinetics of γ' precipitates in the Ni-Al-Mo system is studied using phase-field simulations with inputs from thermodynamic, kinetic and lattice parameter databases. For alloys of different compositions, the precipitate morphology and the statistical information of precipitate sizes are predicted as a function of annealing time. It is observed that increasing Mo content leads to a change of the precipitate morphology from being cuboidal to spherical as well as a reduction in the coarsening rate. Comparison between simulated results and existing experimental microstructure morphologies and coarsening rates shows good agreements

Supported liquid membrane based removal of lead(II) and cadmium(II) from mixed feed: Conversion to solid waste by precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhatluri, Kamal Kumar; Manna, Mriganka Sekhar; Ghoshal, Aloke Kumar; Saha, Prabirkumar, E-mail: p.saha@iitg.ac.in

2015-12-15

Highlights: • Simultaneous removal of two heavy metals lead and cadmium. • Conversion of liquid waste to solid precipitation. • Precipitation facilitates the metals transportation through LM. • Solidification of liquid waste minimizes the final removal of waste. - Abstract: Simultaneous removal of two heavy metals, lead(II) and cadmium(II), from mixed feed using supported liquid membrane (SLM) based technique is investigated in this work. The carrier-solvent combination of “sodium salt of Di-2-ethylhexylphosphoric acid (D2EHPA) (4% w/w) in environmentally benign coconut oil” was immobilized into the pores of solid polymeric polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) support. Sodium carbonate (Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3}) was used as the stripping agent. Carbonate salts of lead(II) and cadmium(II) were formed in the stripping side interface and they were insoluble in water leading to precipitation inside the stripping solution. The transportation of solute is positively affected due to the precipitation. Lead(II) removal was found to be preferential due to its favorable electronic configuration. The conversion of the liquid waste to the solid one was added advantage for the final removal of hazardous heavy metals.

An Ultra-high Resolution Synthetic Precipitation Data for Ungauged Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hong-Joong; Choi, Kyung-Min; Oh, Jai-Ho

2018-05-01

Despite the enormous damage caused by record heavy rainfall, the amount of precipitation in areas without observation points cannot be known precisely. One way to overcome these difficulties is to estimate meteorological data at ungauged sites. In this study, we have used observation data over Seoul city to calculate high-resolution (250-meter resolution) synthetic precipitation over a 10-year (2005-2014) period. Furthermore, three cases are analyzed by evaluating the rainfall intensity and performing statistical analysis over the 10-year period. In the case where the typhoon "Meari" passed to the west coast during 28-30 June 2011, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.93 for seven validation points, which implies that the temporal correlation between the observed precipitation and synthetic precipitation was very good. It can be confirmed that the time series of observation and synthetic precipitation in the period almost completely matches the observed rainfall. On June 28-29, 2011, the estimation of 10 to 30 mm h-1 of continuous strong precipitation was correct. In addition, it is shown that the synthetic precipitation closely follows the observed precipitation for all three cases. Statistical analysis of 10 years of data reveals a very high correlation coefficient between synthetic precipitation and observed rainfall (0.86). Thus, synthetic precipitation data show good agreement with the observations. Therefore, the 250-m resolution synthetic precipitation amount calculated in this study is useful as basic data in weather applications, such as urban flood detection.

Stable Heavy Hadrons in ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Mackeprang, Rasmus

2007-01-01

Several extensions to the SM feature heavy long-lived particles with masses of O(10^2-10^3 GeV) and mean lifetimes fulfilling $CT \\geq 10m$. Among such theories are supersymmetric scenarios as well as extra-dimensional models in which the heavy new particles are seen as Kaluza-Klein excitations of the well-known SM particles. Such particles will, from the point of view of a collider experiment be seen as stable. This thesis is concerned with the case where the exotic heavy particles emph{can} be considered stable while traversing the detector. Specifically the case is considered where the particles in question carry the charge of the strong nuclear force, commonly referred to as emph{colour charge}. A simulation kit has been developed using GEANT4. This framework is the current standard in experimental particle physics for the simulation of interactions of particles with matter, and it is used extensively for detector simulation. The simulation describes the interactions of these particles with matter which i...

Using Python to generate AHPS-based precipitation simulations over CONUS using Amazon distributed computing

Science.gov (United States)

Machalek, P.; Kim, S. M.; Berry, R. D.; Liang, A.; Small, T.; Brevdo, E.; Kuznetsova, A.

2012-12-01

We describe how the Climate Corporation uses Python and Clojure, a language impleneted on top of Java, to generate climatological forecasts for precipitation based on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) radar based daily precipitation measurements. A 2-year-long forecasts is generated on each of the ~650,000 CONUS land based 4-km AHPS grids by constructing 10,000 ensembles sampled from a 30-year reconstructed AHPS history for each grid. The spatial and temporal correlations between neighboring AHPS grids and the sampling of the analogues are handled by Python. The parallelization for all the 650,000 CONUS stations is further achieved by utilizing the MAP-REDUCE framework (http://code.google.com/edu/parallel/mapreduce-tutorial.html). Each full scale computational run requires hundreds of nodes with up to 8 processors each on the Amazon Elastic MapReduce (http://aws.amazon.com/elasticmapreduce/) distributed computing service resulting in 3 terabyte datasets. We further describe how we have productionalized a monthly run of the simulations process at full scale of the 4km AHPS grids and how the resultant terabyte sized datasets are handled.

Radar adjusted data versus modelled precipitation: a case study over Cyprus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Casaioli

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In the framework of the European VOLTAIRE project (Fifth Framework Programme, simulations of relatively heavy precipitation events, which occurred over the island of Cyprus, by means of numerical atmospheric models were performed. One of the aims of the project was indeed the comparison of modelled rainfall fields with multi-sensor observations. Thus, for the 5 March 2003 event, the 24-h accumulated precipitation BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM forecast was compared with the available observations reconstructed from ground-based radar data and estimated by rain gauge data. Since radar data may be affected by errors depending on the distance from the radar, these data could be range-adjusted by using other sensors. In this case, the Precipitation Radar aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite was used to adjust the ground-based radar data with a two-parameter scheme. Thus, in this work, two observational fields were employed: the rain gauge gridded analysis and the observational analysis obtained by merging the range-adjusted radar and rain gauge fields. In order to verify the modelled precipitation, both non-parametric skill scores and the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis were applied. Skill score results show some differences when using the two observational fields. CRA results are instead quite in agreement, showing that in general a 0.27° eastward shift optimizes the forecast with respect to the two observational analyses. This result is also supported by a subjective inspection of the shifted forecast field, whose gross features agree with the analysis pattern more than the non-shifted forecast one. However, some open questions, especially regarding the effect of other range adjustment techniques, remain open and need to be addressed in future works.

SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE PREDICTION FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WEATHER USING FY2-G SATELLITE DATA: A CASE STUDY OF SHENZHEN,SOUTH CHINA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Chen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Short-term precipitation commonly occurs in south part of China, which brings intensive precipitation in local region for very short time. Massive water would cause the intensive flood inside of city when precipitation amount beyond the capacity of city drainage system. Thousands people’s life could be influenced by those short-term disasters and the higher city managements are required to facing these challenges. How to predict the occurrence of heavy precipitation accurately is one of the worthwhile scientific questions in meteorology. According to recent studies, the accuracy of short-term precipitation prediction based on numerical simulation model still remains low reliability, in some area where lack of local observations, the accuracy may be as low as 10%. The methodology for short term precipitation occurrence prediction still remains a challenge. In this paper, a machine learning method based on SVM was presented to predict short-term precipitation occurrence by using FY2-G satellite imagery and ground in situ observation data. The results were validated by traditional TS score which commonly used in evaluation of weather prediction. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm can present overall accuracy up to 90% for one-hour to six-hour forecast. The result implies the prediction accuracy could be improved by using machine learning method combining with satellite image. This prediction model can be further used to evaluated to predicted other characteristics of weather in Shenzhen in future.

Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

Science.gov (United States)

Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen

2017-11-01

The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

A pair of new moisture-dynamic diagnostic parameters for heavy rain location

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Kai; Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Ming

2018-06-01

In this study, the regional persistent heavy rain process occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley from 30 June 2016 to 7 July 2016 is analyzed. We find that the pure dynamic parameters [e.g., vorticity ( V) and divergence ( D)] and two-dimensional moisture-dynamic parameters [e.g., moist vorticity ( MV), moist divergence ( MD)] have difficulty in capturing the rainfall location during such a critical process. Given the poor performance of these traditional parameters, a pair of new parameters [namely, one-dimensional moist vorticity ( ODMV) and one-dimensional moist divergence ( ODMD)] based on low-level jet is proposed for diagnosing heavy rain location. The results show that (1) ODMV and ODMD have better relations with rain belt in terms of spatial distribution. Precipitation occurs in positive (negative) region of ODMV ( ODMD), and heavy rainfall accurately locates in the positive (negative) center of ODMV ( ODMD); (2) ODMV and ODMD also have good correlation with the precipitation in terms of temporal variation (significant at the 99% confidence level). When ODMV ( ODMD) is in strong positive (negative) phase, precipitation is large, and vice versa; (3) the threat score of ODMV and ODMD for the areal-mean rainfall is improved by 119% and 16%, respectively, compared to V/ D and MV/ MD. It is anticipated that the proposed new parameters would facilitate the skills of diagnosing and forecasting the heavy rainfall.

A precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility model for natural gas transmission pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Finley, Jason P. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Valencia, California (United States); Slayter, David L.; Hitchcock, Chris S. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Walnut Creek, California (United States); Lee, Chih-Hung [Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Gas Systems Integrity Management, Walnut Creek, California (United States)

2010-07-01

Landslides related to heavy rainfall can cause extensive damage to natural gas transmission pipelines. Fugro William Lettis and Associates Inc. have developed and implemented a geographic information system (GIS) model that evaluates near real-time precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility. The model incorporates state-wide precipitation data and geologically-based landslide classifications to produce rapid landslide risk evaluation for Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PGandE) gas transmission system during winter rain storms in California. The precipitation data include pre-storm event quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and post-storm event quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The geologic classifications are based on slope, susceptible geologic formations, and the locations of historic or known landslide occurrences. Currently the model is calibrated using qualitative measures. This paper describes the development of the model algorithm and input data, model results, calibration efforts, and the on-going research and landslide collection warranted for continued refinement of the model.

Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Aloysius

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016–2035 and mid-century (2046–2065. We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [−9 %; 20 %] (mean – min and max – across model ensembles over the next two decades and by 7 % [−12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5 are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

2014-01-01

Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

A satellite simulator for TRMM PR applied to climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.; Riley Dellaripa, E. M.; Schumacher, C.

2017-12-01

Climate model simulations have to be compared against observation based datasets in order to assess their skill in representing precipitation characteristics. Here we use a satellite simulator for TRMM PR in order to evaluate simulations performed with MPI-ESM (Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany) performed within the MiKlip project (https://www.fona-miklip.de/, funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). While classical evaluation methods focus on geophysical parameters such as precipitation amounts, the application of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space thereby reducing uncertainties on the reference side. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) provides a framework for the application of satellite simulators to climate model simulations. The approach requires the introduction of sub-grid cloud and precipitation variability. Radar reflectivities are obtained by applying Mie theory, with the microphysical assumptions being chosen to match the atmosphere component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6). The results are found to be sensitive to the methods used to distribute the convective precipitation over the sub-grid boxes. Simple parameterization methods are used to introduce sub-grid variability of convective clouds and precipitation. In order to constrain uncertainties a comprehensive comparison with sub-grid scale convective precipitation variability which is deduced from TRMM PR observations is carried out.

Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

2005-06-01

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

Effects of the Solar Wind Pressure on Mercury's Exosphere: Hybrid Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Travnicek, P. M.; Schriver, D.; Orlando, T. M.; Hellinger, P.

2017-12-01

We study effects of the changed solar wind pressure on the precipitation of hydrogen on the Mercury's surface and on the formation of Mercury's magnetosphere. We carry out a set of global hybrid simulations of the Mercury's magnetosphere with the interplanetary magnetic field oriented in the equatorial plane. We change the solar wind pressure by changing the velocity of injected solar wind plasma (vsw = 2 vA,sw; vsw = 4 vA,sw; vsw = 6 vA,sw). For each of the cases we examine proton and electron precipitation on Mercury's surface and calculate yields of heavy ions released from Mercury's surface via various processes (namely: Photo-Stimulated Desorption, Solar Wind Sputtering, and Electron Stimulated Desorption). We study circulation of the released ions within the Mercury's magnetosphere for the three cases.

Simulation of heavy ion collisions at √s = 20--200 GeV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahana, D.E.; Kahana, S.H.; Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY

1996-11-01

A new hadronic cascade code (LUCIFER) is introduced, for simulation of relativistic heavy ion collisions at CERN energies and up to RHIC. It is based on a simple, experimentally and theoretically motivated picture of hh interactions. Final state hadrons are produced by decay of intermediate state clusters, or lumps of excited hadronic matter. These are similar to resonances, but have a continuous mass distribution. Clusters are the objects that re-interact in the cascade. Single diffractive dissociation is used to fix the cluster properties. The model has just two parameters: τ d , the decay time of the clusters, and τ f the formation time of the clusters. Comparison is made with recent CERN data in the Pb + Pb system. The first consistent cascade simulation, of J/ψ production/suppression is presented. It appears likely that a purely hadronic interpretation can be given to recent CERN data on apparently anomalous J/ψ suppression in Pb + Pb

An Electrostatic Precipitator System for the Martian Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Calle, C. I.; Mackey, P. J.; Hogue, M. D.; Johansen, M. R.; Phillips, J. R., III; Clements, J. S.

2012-01-01

Human exploration missions to Mars will require the development of technologies for the utilization of the planet's own resources for the production of commodities. However, the Martian atmosphere contains large amounts of dust. The extraction of commodities from this atmosphere requires prior removal of this dust. We report on our development of an electrostatic precipitator able to collect Martian simulated dust particles in atmospheric conditions approaching those of Mars. Extensive experiments with an initial prototype in a simulated Martian atmosphere showed efficiencies of 99%. The design of a second prototype with aerosolized Martian simulated dust in a flow-through is described. Keywords: Space applications, electrostatic precipitator, particle control, particle charging

Pop-rock music as precipitating cause in youth suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Litman, R E; Farberow, N L

1994-03-01

The plaintiffs in a law suit alleged that the heavy metal rock band Judas Priest, and its publisher CBS, were liable for damages to two youths who shot themselves after listening to the band's album. Crucial issues included "proximate cause" and "precipitating cause" in suicide, and the alleged role of subliminal messages. The judge ruled that although the "heavy metal" music might have had a toxic influence, the sounds and words are protected by the free speech first amendment. The influence of subliminal messages on behavior is unproven. There were many other elements in the personalities and situations of the victims to account for their self-destructive behavior.

Simulation of speed control in acceleration mode of a heavy duty vehicle; Ogatasha no kasokuji ni okeru shasoku seigyo simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Endo, S; Ukawa, H [Isuzu Advanced Engineering Center, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Sanada, K; Kitagawa, A [Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo (Japan)

1997-10-01

A control law of speed of a heavy duty vehicle in acceleration mode is presented, which is an extended version of a control law in deceleration mode proposed by the authors. The control law is based on constant acceleration strategy. Using the control law, target velocity and target distance can be performed. Both control laws for acceleration and deceleration mode can be represented by a unified mathematical formulae. Some simulation results are shown to demonstrate the control performance. 7 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

Continuous daily hydrograph simulation using duration curves of a precipitation index

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Smakhtin, VY

2000-04-01

Full Text Available precipitation index reflects the current catchment wetness and is defined as a continuous function of precipitation, which accumulates on rainy days and exponentially decays during the periods of no rainfall. The process of rainfall-to-runoff conversion is based...

Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Rakovec

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Sound spatially distributed rainfall fields including a proper spatial and temporal error structure are of key interest for hydrologists to force hydrological models and to identify uncertainties in the simulated and forecasted catchment response. The current paper presents a temporally coherent error identification method based on time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulations, which are conditioned on preceding simulations. A sensitivity analysis and real-world experiment are carried out within the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. Precipitation fields are simulated for pixels of 10 km × 10 km resolution. Uncertainty analyses in the simulated fields focus on (1 the number of previous simulation hours on which the new simulation is conditioned, (2 the advection speed of the rainfall event, (3 the size of the catchment considered, and (4 the rain gauge density within the catchment. The results for a sensitivity analysis show for typical advection speeds >20 km h⁻¹, no uncertainty is added in terms of across ensemble spread when conditioned on more than one or two previous hourly simulations. However, for the real-world experiment, additional uncertainty can still be added when conditioning on a larger number of previous simulations. This is because for actual precipitation fields, the dynamics exhibit a larger spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, by thinning the observation network with 50%, the added uncertainty increases only slightly and the cross-validation shows that the simulations at the unobserved locations are unbiased. Finally, the first-order autocorrelation coefficients show clear temporal coherence in the time series of the areal precipitation using the time-dependent multivariate conditional simulations, which was not the case using the time-independent univariate conditional simulations. The presented work can be easily implemented within a hydrological calibration and data assimilation

Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2016-04-01

How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these

Interactions between heavy metals and sewer slimes. Wechselwirkungen zwischen Schwermetallen und Sielhaut

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutekunst, B.

1989-09-01

Sewer slimes in wastewater pipes are an efficient means for detecting heavy metals discharged into the sewer system. The chances and limits of this method are discussed on the basis of the interactions between the heavy metals and the sewer slime. Chemical processes which lead to an accumulation of heavy metals are precipitation, adsorption and sedimentation. The mobilization is due to dissolution, desorption and complexation. The dependency of the waste water parameters pH, redox potential, heavy metal concentration and speciation on the accumulation and mobilization of the heavy metals is investigated as well as the binding capacity and strength. The heavy metals speciations in sewer slime are estimated by the application of a sequential leaching technique. Finally the practical significance of the experiments is shown. (orig.).

On the effects of wildfires on precipitation in Southern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

De Sales, Fernando; Okin, Gregory S.; Xue, Yongkang; Dintwe, Kebonye

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of wildfire on the climate of Southern Africa. Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer derived burned area fraction data was implemented in a set of simulations to assess primarily the role of wildfire-induced surface changes on monthly precipitation. Two post-fire scenarios are examined namely non-recovering and recovering vegetation scenarios. In the former, burned vegetation fraction remains burned until the end of the simulations, whereas in the latter it is allowed to regrow following a recovery period. Control simulations revealed that the model can dependably capture the monthly precipitation and surface temperature averages in Southern Africa thus providing a reasonable basis against which to assess the impacts of wildfire. In general, both wildfire scenarios have a negative impact on springtime precipitation. September and October were the only months with statistically significant precipitation changes. During these months, precipitation in the region decreases by approximately 13 and 9% in the non-recovering vegetation scenario, and by about 10 and 6% in the recovering vegetation wildfire scenario, respectively. The primary cause of precipitation deficit is the decrease in evapotranspiration resulting from a reduction in surface net radiation. Areas impacted by the precipitation reduction includes the Luanda, Kinshasa, and Brazzaville metropolitan areas, The Angolan Highlands, which are the source of the Okavango Rive, and the Okavango Delta region. This study suggests that a probable intensification in wildfire frequency and extent resulting from projected population increase and global warming in Southern Africa could potentially exacerbate the impacts of wildfires in the region's seasonal precipitation.

Two-way Valorization of Blast Furnace Slag: Synthesis of Precipitated Calcium Carbonate and Zeolitic Heavy Metal Adsorbent.

Science.gov (United States)

Georgakopoulos, Evangelos; Santos, Rafael M; Chiang, Yi Wai; Manovic, Vasilije

2017-02-21

The aim of this work is to present a zero-waste process for storing CO2 in a stable and benign mineral form while producing zeolitic minerals with sufficient heavy metal adsorption capacity. To this end, blast furnace slag, a residue from iron-making, is utilized as the starting material. Calcium is selectively extracted from the slag by leaching with acetic acid (2 M CH3COOH) as the extraction agent. The filtered leachate is subsequently physico-chemically purified and then carbonated to form precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) of high purity (Sodium hydroxide is added to neutralize the regenerated acetate. The morphological properties of the resulting calcitic PCC are tuned for its potential application as a filler in papermaking. In parallel, the residual solids from the extraction stage are subjected to hydrothermal conversion in a caustic solution (2 M NaOH) that leads to the predominant formation of a particular zeolitic mineral phase (detected by XRD), namely analcime (NaAlSi2O6∙H2O). Based on its ability to adsorb Ni 2+ , as reported from batch adsorption experiments and ICP-OES analysis, this product can potentially be used in wastewater treatment or for environmental remediation applications.

Developing models for simulation of pinched-beam dynamics in heavy ion fusion. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyd, J.K.; Mark, J.W.K.; Sharp, W.M.; Yu, S.S.

1984-01-01

For heavy-ion fusion energy applications, Mark and Yu have derived hydrodynamic models for numerical simulation of energetic pinched-beams including self-pinches and external-current pinches. These pinched-beams are applicable to beam propagation in fusion chambers and to the US High Temperature Experiment. The closure of the Mark-Yu model is obtained with adiabatic assumptions mathematically analogous to those of Chew, Goldberger, and Low for MHD. Features of this hydrodynamic beam model are compared with a kinetic treatment

Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

2013-01-01

Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

Future changes of precipitation characteristics in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, S.; Wu, Y.; Wen, J.

2017-12-01

Global warming has the potential to alter the hydrological cycle, with significant impacts on the human society, the environment and ecosystems. This study provides a detailed assessment of potential changes in precipitation characteristics in China using a suite of 12 high-resolution CMIP5 climate models under a medium and a high Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We examine future changes over the entire distribution of precipitation, and identify any shift in the shape and/or scale of the distribution. In addition, we use extreme-value theory to evaluate the change in probability and magnitude for extreme precipitation events. Overall, China is going to experience an increase in total precipitation (by 8% under RCP4.5 and 12% under RCP8.5). This increase is uneven spatially, with more increase in the west and less increase in the east. Precipitation frequency is projected to increase in the west and decrease in the east. Under RCP4.5, the overall precipitation frequency for the entire China remains largely unchanged (0.08%). However, RCP8.5 projects a more significant decrease in frequency for large part of China, resulting in an overall decrease of 2.08%. Precipitation intensity is likely increase more uniformly, with an overall increase of 11% for RCP4.5 and 19% for RCP8.5. Precipitation increases for all parts of the distribution, but the increase is more for higher quantiles, i.e. strong events. The relative contribution of small quantiles is likely to decrease, whereas contribution from heavy events is likely to increase. Extreme precipitation increase at much higher rates than average precipitation, and high rates of increase are expected for more extreme events. 1-year events are likely to increase by 15%, but 20-year events are going to increase by 21% under RCP4.5, 26% and 40% respectively under RCP8.5. The increase of extreme events is likely to be more spatially uniform.

Finite element modeling simulation-assisted design of integrated microfluidic chips for heavy metal ion stripping analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Ying; Zou, Jianhua; Ge, Gang; Xiao, Wanyue; Shao, Jinjun; Dong, Xiaochen; Gao, Ling

2017-01-01

In this article, a transparent integrated microfluidic device composed of a 3D-printed thin-layer flow cell (3D-PTLFC) and an S-shaped screen-printed electrode (SPE) has been designed and fabricated for heavy metal ion stripping analysis. A finite element modeling (FEM) simulation is employed to optimize the shape of the electrode, the direction of the inlet pipeline, the thin-layer channel height and the sample flow rate to enhance the electron-enrichment efficiency for stripping analysis. The results demonstrate that the S-shaped SPE configuration matches the channel in 3D-PTLFC perfectly for the anodic stripping behavior of the heavy metal ions. Under optimized conditions, a wide linear range of 1–80 µ g l −1 is achieved for Pb 2+ detection with a limit of 0.3 µ g l −1 for the microfluidic device. Thus, the obtained integrated microfluidic device proves to be a promising approach for heavy metal ions stripping analysis with low cost and high performance. (paper)

Comparison of GPM IMERG, TMPA 3B42 and PERSIANN-CDR satellite precipitation products over Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Mou Leong; Santo, Harrif

2018-04-01

The launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission has prompted the assessment of the newly released satellite precipitation products (SPPs) in different parts of the world. This study performed an initial comparison of three GPM IMERG products (IMERG_E, IMERG_L and IMERG_F) with its predecessor, the TMPA 3B42 and 3B42RT products, and a long-term PERSIANN-CDR product over Malaysia. The performance of six SPPs was evaluated using 501 precipitation gauges from 12 March 2014 to 29 February 2016. The annual, seasonal, monthly and daily precipitation measurements were validated using three widely used statistical metrics (CC, RMSE and RB). The precipitation detection capability (POD, FAR and CSI), probability density function (PDF) and the 2014-2015 flood event analysis were also considered in this assessment. The results show that all the SPPs perform well in annual and monthly precipitation measurements. The spatial variability of the total annual precipitation in 2015 is well captured by all six SPPs, with high precipitation amount in southern East Malaysia, and low precipitation amount in the middle part of Peninsular Malaysia. In contrast, all the SPPs show moderate correlation at daily precipitation estimations, with better performance during the northeast monsoon season. The performance of all the SPPs is better in eastern Peninsular Malaysia, but poorer in northern Peninsular Malaysia. All the SPPs have good precipitation detection ability, except the PERSIANN-CDR. All the SPPs underestimate the light (0-1 mm/day) and violent (> 50 mm/day) precipitation classes, but overestimate moderate and heavy (1-50 mm/day) precipitation classes. The IMERG is shown to have a better capability in detecting light precipitation (0-1 mm/day) compared to the other SPPs. The PERSIANN-CDR has the worst performance in capturing all the precipitation classes, with significant underestimation of light precipitation (0-1 mm/day) class and overestimation of moderate and

Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in the WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, R. M.; Zhang, T.; Yong, K.-T.

2015-09-01

The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point) nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ), produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denoted "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed. In tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data set than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

Computer simulation of the heavy-duty turbo-compounded diesel cycle for studies of engine efficiency and performance

Science.gov (United States)

Assanis, D. N.; Ekchian, J. A.; Heywood, J. B.; Replogle, K. K.

1984-01-01

Reductions in heat loss at appropriate points in the diesel engine which result in substantially increased exhaust enthalpy were shown. The concepts for this increased enthalpy are the turbocharged, turbocompounded diesel engine cycle. A computer simulation of the heavy duty turbocharged turbo-compounded diesel engine system was undertaken. This allows the definition of the tradeoffs which are associated with the introduction of ceramic materials in various parts of the total engine system, and the study of system optimization. The basic assumptions and the mathematical relationships used in the simulation of the model engine are described.

A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

2007-01-01

Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...

Attenuation in Melting Layer of Precipitation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klaassen, W.

1988-01-01

A model of the melting layer is employed on radar measurements to simulate the attenuation of radio waves at 12, 20 and 30GHz. The attenuation in the melting layer is simulated to be slightly larger than that of rain with the same path length and precipitation intensity. The result appears to depend

Impact of acid precipitation on freshwater ecosystems in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, R F; Dale, T; Gjessing, E T; Hendrey, G R; Henriksen, A; J Hannesen, M; Muniz, I P

1975-01-01

Precipitation in southern Norway contains large amounts of H/sup +/, SO/sub 4//sup 2 -/, and NO/sub 3//sup -/ ions, along with heavy metals such as Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb. These pollutants are transported over long distances to Scandinavia and are deposited in precipitation and dry-fallout. Large areas of southern Norway have been adversely affected by acid precipitation. The pH of many lakes is below 5.0 and sulfate, rather than bicarbonate, is the major anion. Lakes in these areas are particularly vulnerable to acid precipitation because their watersheds are underlain by highly resistant bedrock with low calcium and magnesium contents. The effects of the increasing acidity of freshwater ecosystems involve interference at every trophic level. Biological surveys indicate that low pH-values inhibit the decomposition of allochthonous organic matter, decrease the species number of phyto- and zooplankton and benthic invertebrates, and promote the growth of benthic mosses. Fish populations have been severely affected - the salmon have been eliminated from many rivers, and hundreds of lakes have lost their sport fisheries.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

Variation of precipitation in Langtang Valley,Himalayas

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

The variation of the δ 18O in precipitation and the relationship with precipitation amountat Kyangjin Base House and Yala Glacier Camp in Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalayas were ana-lyzed. The variations of the δ 18O with precipitation had great scatter, and the correlations betweenthe δ18O and precipitation changed with time on the synoptic scale. On the seasonal scale, therewas marked amount effect at Kyangjin Base House. However, the δ18O-precipitation gradient wassmaller than that on the synoptic scale. Because of the maintenance of the basic equilibrium be-tween stable isotopic compositions in atmospheric vapor and precipitation, the evaporation en-richment was light during the rainy season. Therefore, the variation of stable isotopic compositionsin precipitation was independent on the sampling intervals. Simulations show that the rainfall inLangtang Valley was not the outcome of the initial condensation of ocean vapor that originatedfrom low latitudes. The stable isotopic compositions in precipitation were greatly depleted due tothe strong rainout of the vapor from oceans as the vapor was raised over the Himalayas

Distributed physically-based precipitation-runoff models for continuous simulation of daily runoff in the Columbia River Basin, British Columbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chin, W.Q.; Salmon, G.M.; Luo, W.

1997-01-01

The need to accurately forecast precipitation and water runoff is essential to the operations of hydroelectric power plants. In 1993, BC Hydro established a program to develop, test and improve new and existing atmospheric and hydrologic models that would be suitable for application over the mountainous terrain of British Columbia. The objective was to improve the reliability and accuracy of hydrological models that simulate and forecast precipitation and runoff. Another objective was to develop a modelling system for hydrologic risk assessment in dam safety evaluation. This paper describes progress made in implementing timely measures to resolve problems of reservoir operation in balancing the need for generation of hydroelectric power with conflicting requirements for flood control, fisheries, recreation and other environmental concerns. 23 refs., 11 figs

A major change in precipitation gradient on the Chinese Loess Plateau at the Pliocene-Quaternary boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Wenbin; Nie, Junsheng; Wang, Zhao; Qiang, Xiaoke; Garzanti, Eduardo; Pfaff, Katharina; Song, Yougui; Stevens, Thomas

2018-04-01

Spatiotemporal variations in East Asian Monsoon (EAM) precipitation during the Quaternary have been intensively studied. However, spatial variations in pre-Quaternary EAM precipitation remain largely uninvestigated, preventing a clear understanding of monsoon dynamics during a warmer climatic period. Here we compare the spatial differences in heavy mineral assemblages between Quaternary loess and pre-Quaternary Red Clay on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) to analyze spatial patterns in weathering. Prior studies have revealed that unstable hornblende is the dominant (∼50%) heavy mineral in Chinese loess deposited over the past 500 ka, whereas hornblende content decreases to climate at Jiaxian must have been initiated since ∼2.7 Ma, preventing hornblende dissolution to amounts change in climatic patterns at ∼2.7 Ma to decreased northward moisture transportation associated with Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooling in the Quaternary. This study therefore demonstrates the potential usefulness of employing heavy mineral analysis in both paleoclimatic and paleooceanographic reconstructions.

Bioassessment of heavy metal toxicity and enhancement of heavy metal removal by sulfate-reducing bacteria in the presence of zero valent iron.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jing; Kang, Yong; Feng, Ying

2017-12-01

A simple and valid toxicity evaluation of Zn 2+ , Mn 2+ and Cr 6+ on sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and heavy metal removal were investigated using the SRB system and SRB+Fe 0 system. The heavy metal toxicity coefficient (β) and the heavy metal concentration resulting in 50% inhibition of sulfate reduction (I) from a modeling process were proposed to evaluate the heavy metal toxicity and nonlinear regression was applied to search for evaluation indices β and I. The heavy metal toxicity order was Cr 6+  > Mn 2+  > Zn 2+ . Compared with the SRB system, the SRB+Fe 0 system exhibited a better capability for sulfate reduction and heavy metal removal. The heavy metal removal was above 99% in the SRB+Fe 0 system, except for Mn 2+ . The energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) analysis showed that the precipitates were removed primarily as sulfide for Zn 2+ and hydroxide for Mn 2+ and Cr 6+ .The method of evaluating the heavy metal toxicity on SRB was of great significance to understand the fundamentals of the heavy metal toxicity and inhibition effects on the microorganism and regulate the process of microbial sulfate reduction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mesoscale processes for super heavy rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009 over Southern Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.-Y. Lin

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Within 100 h, a record-breaking rainfall, 2855 mm, was brought to Taiwan by typhoon Morakot in August 2009 resulting in devastating landslides and casualties. Analyses and simulations show that under favorable large-scale situations, this unprecedented precipitation was caused first by the convergence of the southerly component of the pre-existing strong southwesterly monsoonal flow and the northerly component of the typhoon circulation. Then the westerly component of southwesterly flow pushed the highly moist air (mean specific humidity >16 g/kg between 950 and 700 hPa from NCEP GFS data set eastward against the Central Mountain Range, and forced it to lift in the preferred area. From the fine-scale numerical simulation, not only did the convergence itself provide the source of the heavy rainfall when it interacted with the topography, but also convective cells existed within the typhoon's main rainband. The convective cells were in the form of small rainbands perpendicular to the main one, and propagated as wave trains downwind. As the main rainband moved northward and reached the southern CMR, convective cells inside the narrow convergence zone to the south and those to the north as wave trains, both rained heavily as they were lifted by the west-facing mountain slopes. Those mesoscale processes were responsible for the unprecedented heavy rainfall total that accompanied this typhoon.