WorldWideScience

Sample records for head impact scenarios

  1. Head injury causation scenarios for belted, rear-seated children in frontal impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohman, Katarina; Arbogast, Kristy B; Bostrom, Ola

    2011-02-01

    Head injuries are the most common serious injuries sustained by children in motor vehicle crashes and are of critical importance with regard to long-term disability. There is a lack of understanding of how seat belt-restrained children sustain head injuries in frontal impacts. The aim of the study was to identify the AIS2+ head injury causation scenarios for rear-seated, belt-restrained children in frontal impacts, including the set of parameters contributing to the injury. In-depth crash investigations from two National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) databases, the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS; 1997-2008) and the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN; 1996-2009), were collected and analyzed in detail. Selection criteria were all frontal impacts with principal direction of force (PDOF) of 11, 12, and 1 o'clock involving rear-seated, three-point belt-restrained, with or without booster cushion, children from 3 to 13 years with an AIS2+ head injury. Cases were analyzed using the BioTab method of injury causation assessment in order to systematically analyze the injury causation scenario for each case. There were 27 cases meeting the inclusion criteria, 19 cases with MAIS2 head injuries and 8 cases with MAIS3+ head injuries, including 2 fatalities. Three major injury causation scenarios were identified, including head contact with seatback (10 cases), head contact with side interior (7 cases,) and no evidence of head contact (9 cases). Head injuries with seatback or side interior contact typically included a PDOF greater than 10 degree (similar to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety [IIHS] and EuroNCAP offset frontal testing) and vehicle maneuvers. For seatback contact, the vehicle's movements contributed to occupant kinematics inboard the vehicle, causing a less than optimal restraint of the torso and/or torso roll out of the shoulder belt. For side interior contact, the PDOF and

  2. Head impact in a snowboarding accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailly, N; Llari, M; Donnadieu, T; Masson, C; Arnoux, P J

    2017-09-01

    To effectively prevent sport traumatic brain injury (TBI), means of protection need to be designed and tested in relation to the reality of head impact. This study quantifies head impacts during a typical snowboarding accident to evaluate helmet standards. A snowboarder numerical model was proposed, validated against experimental data, and used to quantify the influence of accident conditions (speed, snow stiffness, morphology, and position) on head impacts (locations, velocities, and accelerations) and injury risk during snowboarding backward falls. Three hundred twenty-four scenarios were simulated: 70% presented a high risk of mild TBI (head peak acceleration >80 g) and 15% presented a high risk of severe TBI (head injury criterion >1000). Snow stiffness, speed, and snowboarder morphology were the main factors influencing head impact metrics. Mean normal head impact speed (28 ± 6 km/h) was higher than equivalent impact speed used in American standard helmet test (ASTM F2040), and mean tangential impact speed, not included in standard tests, was 13.8 (±7 km/h). In 97% of simulated impacts, the peak head acceleration was below 300 g, which is the pass/fail criteria used in standard tests. Results suggest that initial speed, impacted surface, and pass/fail criteria used in helmet standard performance tests do not fully reflect magnitude and variability of snowboarding backward-fall impacts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Analysis of right anterolateral impacts: the effect of head rotation on the cervical muscle whiplash response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayan Yogesh

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The cervical muscles are considered a potential site of whiplash injury, and there are many impact scenarios for whiplash injury. There is a need to understand the cervical muscle response under non-conventional whiplash impact scenarios, including variable head position and impact direction. Methods Twenty healthy volunteers underwent right anterolateral impacts of 4.0, 7.6, 10.7, and 13.0 m/s2 peak acceleration, each with the head rotated to the left, then the head rotated to the right in a random order of impact severities. Bilateral electromyograms of the sternocleidomastoids, trapezii, and splenii capitis following impact were measured. Results At a peak acceleration of 13.0 m/s2, with the head rotated to the right, the right trapezius generated 61% of its maximal voluntary contraction electromyogram (MVC EMG, while all other muscles generated 31% or less of this variable (31% for the left trapezius, 13% for the right spleinus. capitis, and 16% for the left splenius capitis. The sternocleidomastoids muscles also tended to show an asymmetric EMG response, with the left sternocleidomastoid (the one responsible for head rotation to the right generating a higher percentage (26% of its MVC EMG than the left sternocleidomastoid (4% (p Conclusion The EMG response to a right anterolateral impact is highly dependent on the head position. The sternocleidomastoid responsible for the direction of head rotation and the trapezius ipsilateral to the direction of head rotation generate the most EMG activity.

  4. Head Impact Laboratory (HIL)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The HIL uses testing devices to evaluate vehicle interior energy attenuating (EA) technologies for mitigating head injuries resulting from head impacts during mine/...

  5. Head Impact Biomechanics in Women's College Soccer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynall, Robert C; Clark, Michael D; Grand, Erin E; Stucker, Jaclyn C; Littleton, Ashley C; Aguilar, Alain J; Petschauer, Meredith A; Teel, Elizabeth F; Mihalik, Jason P

    2016-09-01

    There are limited nonlaboratory soccer head impact biomechanics data. This is surprising given soccer's global popularity. Epidemiological data suggest that female college soccer players are at a greater concussion injury risk than their male counterparts. Therefore, the purposes of our study were to quantify head impact frequency and magnitude during women's soccer practices and games in the National Collegiate Athletic Association and to characterize these data across event type, playing position, year on the team, and segment of game (first and second halves). Head impact biomechanics were collected from female college soccer players (n = 22; mean ± SD age = 19.1 ± 0.1 yr, height = 168.0 ± 3.5 cm, mass = 63.7 ± 6.0 kg). We employed a helmetless head impact measurement device (X2 Biosystems xPatch) before each competition and practice across a single season. Peak linear and rotational accelerations were categorized based on impact magnitude and subsequently analyzed using appropriate nonparametric analyses. Overall, women's college soccer players experience approximately seven impacts per 90 min of game play. The overwhelming majority (~90%) of all head impacts were categorized into our mildest linear acceleration impact classification (10g-20g). Interestingly, a higher percentage of practice impacts in the 20g-40g range compared with games (11% vs 7%) was observed. Head impact biomechanics studies have provided valuable insights into understanding collision sports and for informing evidence-based rule and policy changes. These have included changing the football kickoff, ice hockey body checking ages, and head-to-head hits in both sports. Given soccer's global popularity, and the growing public concern for the potential long-term neurological implications of collision and contact sports, studying soccer has the potential to impact many athletes and the sports medicine professionals caring for them.

  6. High-magnitude head impact exposure in youth football

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campolettano, Eamon T.; Gellner, Ryan A.; Rowson, Steven

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Even in the absence of a clinically diagnosed concussion, research suggests that neurocognitive changes may develop in football players as a result of frequent head impacts that occur during football games and practices. The objectives of this study were to determine the specific situations in which high-magnitude impacts (accelerations exceeding 40g) occur in youth football games and practices and to assess how representative practice activities are of games with regard to high-magnitude head impact exposure. METHODS A total of 45 players (mean age 10.7 ± 1.1 years) on 2 youth teams (Juniors [mean age 9.9 ± 0.6 years; mean body mass 38.9 ± 9.9 kg] and Seniors [mean age 11.9 ± 0.6 years; mean body mass 51.4 ± 11.8 kg]) wore helmets instrumented with accelerometer arrays to record head impact accelerations for all practices and games. Video recordings from practices and games were used to verify all high-magnitude head impacts, identify specific impact characteristics, and determine the amount of time spent in each activity. RESULTS A total of 7590 impacts were recorded, of which 571 resulted in high-magnitude head impact accelerations exceeding 40g (8%). Impacts were characterized based on the position played by the team member who received the impact, the part of the field where the impact occurred, whether the impact occurred during a game or practice play, and the cause of the impact. High-magnitude impacts occurred most frequently in the open field in both games (59.4%) and practices (67.5%). “Back” position players experienced a greater proportion of high-magnitude head impacts than players at other positions. The 2 teams in this study structured their practice sessions similarly with respect to time spent in each drill, but impact rates differed for each drill between the teams. CONCLUSIONS High-magnitude head impact exposure in games and practice drills was quantified and used as the basis for comparison of exposure in the 2 settings. In

  7. Exploring the mechanisms of vehicle front-end shape on pedestrian head injuries caused by ground impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Sha; Li, Jiani; Xu, Jun

    2017-09-01

    In pedestrian-vehicle accidents, pedestrians typically suffer from secondary impact with the ground after the primary contact with vehicles. However, information about the fundamental mechanism of pedestrian head injury from ground impact remains minimal, thereby hindering further improvement in pedestrian safety. This study addresses this issue by using multi-body modeling and computation to investigate the influence of vehicle front-end shape on pedestrian safety. Accordingly, a simulation matrix is constructed to vary bonnet leading-edge height, bonnet length, bonnet angle, and windshield angle. Subsequently, a set of 315 pedestrian-vehicle crash simulations are conducted using the multi-body simulation software MADYMO. Three vehicle velocities, i.e., 20, 30, and 40km/h, are set as the scenarios. Results show that the top governing factor is bonnet leading-edge height. The posture and head injury at the instant of head ground impact vary dramatically with increasing height because of the significant rise of the body bending point and the movement of the collision point. The bonnet angle is the second dominant factor that affects head-ground injury, followed by bonnet length and windshield angle. The results may elucidate one of the critical barriers to understanding head injury caused by ground impact and provide a solid theoretical guideline for considering pedestrian safety in vehicle design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Head Start Impact Study. Technical Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Shapiro, Gary; Broene, Pam; Jenkins, Frank; Fletcher, Philip; Quinn, Liz; Friedman, Janet; Ciarico, Janet; Rohacek, Monica; Adams, Gina; Spier, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    This Technical Report is designed to provide technical detail to support the analysis and findings presented in the "Head Start Impact Study Final Report" (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, January 2010). Chapter 1 provides an overview of the Head Start Impact Study and its findings. Chapter 2 provides technical information on the…

  9. Analysis of two colliding fractionally damped spherical shells in modelling blunt human head impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossikhin, Yury A.; Shitikova, Marina V.

    2013-06-01

    The collision of two elastic or viscoelastic spherical shells is investigated as a model for the dynamic response of a human head impacted by another head or by some spherical object. Determination of the impact force that is actually being transmitted to bone will require the model for the shock interaction of the impactor and human head. This model is indended to be used in simulating crash scenarios in frontal impacts, and provide an effective tool to estimate the severity of effect on the human head and to estimate brain injury risks. The model developed here suggests that after the moment of impact quasi-longitudinal and quasi-transverse shock waves are generated, which then propagate along the spherical shells. The solution behind the wave fronts is constructed with the help of the theory of discontinuities. It is assumed that the viscoelastic features of the shells are exhibited only in the contact domain, while the remaining parts retain their elastic properties. In this case, the contact spot is assumed to be a plane disk with constant radius, and the viscoelastic features of the shells are described by the fractional derivative standard linear solid model. In the case under consideration, the governing differential equations are solved analytically by the Laplace transform technique. It is shown that the fractional parameter of the fractional derivative model plays very important role, since its variation allows one to take into account the age-related changes in the mechanical properties of bone.

  10. Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A MIQP approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem. ► Head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints are considered. ► As new contribution to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios. ► Also, risk aversion is incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through CVaR. ► A case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems is provided. - Abstract: In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

  11. Heading Frequency Is More Strongly Related to Cognitive Performance Than Unintentional Head Impacts in Amateur Soccer Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Walter F; Kim, Namhee; Ifrah, Chloe; Sliwinski, Martin; Zimmerman, Molly E; Kim, Mimi; Lipton, Richard B; Lipton, Michael L

    2018-01-01

    Compared to heading, unintentional head impacts (e.g., elbow to head, head to head, head to goalpost) in soccer are more strongly related to risk of moderate to very severe Central Nervous System (CNS) symptoms. But, most head impacts associated with CNS symptoms that occur in soccer are mild and are more strongly related to heading. We tested for a differential relation of heading and unintentional head impacts with neuropsychological (NP) test performance. Active adult amateur soccer players were recruited in New York City and the surrounding areas for this repeated measures longitudinal study of individuals who were enrolled if they had 5+ years of soccer play and were active playing soccer 6+ months/year. All participants completed a baseline validated questionnaire ("HeadCount-2w"), reporting 2-week recall of soccer activity, heading and unintentional head impacts. In addition, participants also completed NP tests of verbal learning, verbal memory, psychomotor speed, attention, and working memory. Most participants also completed one or more identical follow-up protocols (i.e., HeadCount-2w and NP tests) at 3- to 6-month intervals over a 2-year period. Repeated measures General Estimating Equations (GEE) linear models were used to determine if variation in NP tests at each visit was related to variation in either heading or unintentional head impacts in the 2-week period before testing. 308 players (78% male) completed 741 HeadCount-2w. Mean (median) heading/2-weeks was 50 (17) for men and 26 (7) for women. Heading was significantly associated with poorer performance on psychomotor speed ( p  impacts were not significantly associated with any NP test. Results did not differ after excluding 22 HeadCount-2w with reported concussive or borderline concussive symptoms. Poorer NP test performance was consistently related to frequent heading during soccer practice and competition in the 2 weeks before testing. In contrast, unintentional head impacts incurred

  12. Heading Frequency Is More Strongly Related to Cognitive Performance Than Unintentional Head Impacts in Amateur Soccer Players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter F. Stewart

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveCompared to heading, unintentional head impacts (e.g., elbow to head, head to head, head to goalpost in soccer are more strongly related to risk of moderate to very severe Central Nervous System (CNS symptoms. But, most head impacts associated with CNS symptoms that occur in soccer are mild and are more strongly related to heading. We tested for a differential relation of heading and unintentional head impacts with neuropsychological (NP test performance.MethodActive adult amateur soccer players were recruited in New York City and the surrounding areas for this repeated measures longitudinal study of individuals who were enrolled if they had 5+ years of soccer play and were active playing soccer 6+ months/year. All participants completed a baseline validated questionnaire (“HeadCount-2w”, reporting 2-week recall of soccer activity, heading and unintentional head impacts. In addition, participants also completed NP tests of verbal learning, verbal memory, psychomotor speed, attention, and working memory. Most participants also completed one or more identical follow-up protocols (i.e., HeadCount-2w and NP tests at 3- to 6-month intervals over a 2-year period. Repeated measures General Estimating Equations (GEE linear models were used to determine if variation in NP tests at each visit was related to variation in either heading or unintentional head impacts in the 2-week period before testing.Results308 players (78% male completed 741 HeadCount-2w. Mean (median heading/2-weeks was 50 (17 for men and 26 (7 for women. Heading was significantly associated with poorer performance on psychomotor speed (p < 0.001 and attention (p = 0.02 tasks and was borderline significant with poorer performance on the working memory (p = 0.06 task. Unintentional head impacts were not significantly associated with any NP test. Results did not differ after excluding 22 HeadCount-2w with reported concussive or borderline concussive symptoms

  13. Do Head Start Impacts Vary by Neighborhood Context?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Pamela A.; Connors, Maia C.; McCoy, Dana Charles; Gomez, Celia J.; Yoshikawa, Hiro; Aber, J. Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    This paper capitalizes on the addition of geocodes for Head Start centers in which children were randomly assigned to address questions about the role of neighborhood characteristics in moderating impacts of assignment to the Head Start program. Researchers explore the extent to which impacts of assignment to Head Start on outcomes for children…

  14. Head-impact mechanisms in men's and women's collegiate ice hockey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Bethany J; Machan, Jason T; Beckwith, Jonathan G; Greenwald, Richard M; Burmeister, Emily; Crisco, Joseph J

    2014-01-01

    Concussion injury rates in men's and women's ice hockey are reported to be among the highest of all collegiate sports. Quantification of the frequency of head impacts and the magnitude of head acceleration as a function of the different impact mechanisms (eg, head contact with the ice) that occur in ice hockey could provide a better understanding of this high injury rate. To quantify and compare the per-game frequency and magnitude of head impacts associated with various impact mechanisms in men's and women's collegiate ice hockey players. Cohort study. Collegiate ice hockey rink. Twenty-three men and 31 women from 2 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I ice hockey teams. We analyzed magnitude and frequency (per game) of head impacts per player among impact mechanisms and between sexes using generalized mixed linear models and generalized estimating equations to account for repeated measures within players. Participants wore helmets instrumented with accelerometers to allow us to collect biomechanical measures of head impacts sustained during play. Video footage from 53 games was synchronized with the biomechanical data. Head impacts were classified into 8 categories: contact with another player; the ice, boards or glass, stick, puck, or goal; indirect contact; and contact from celebrating. For men and women, contact with another player was the most frequent impact mechanism, and contact with the ice generated the greatest-magnitude head accelerations. The men had higher per-game frequencies of head impacts from contact with another player and contact with the boards than did the women (P < .001), and these impacts were greater in peak rotational acceleration (P = .027). Identifying the impact mechanisms in collegiate ice hockey that result in frequent and high-magnitude head impacts will provide us with data that may improve our understanding of the high rate of concussion in the sport and inform injury-prevention strategies.

  15. Analysis of linear head accelerations from collegiate football impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brolinson, P Gunnar; Manoogian, Sarah; McNeely, David; Goforth, Mike; Greenwald, Richard; Duma, Stefan

    2006-02-01

    Sports-related concussions result in 300,000 brain injuries in the United States each year. We conducted a study utilizing an in-helmet system that measures and records linear head accelerations to analyze head impacts in collegiate football. The Head Impact Telemetry (HIT) System is an in-helmet system with six spring-mounted accelerometers and an antenna that transmits data via radio frequency to a sideline receiver and laptop computer system. A total of 11,604 head impacts were recorded from the Virginia Tech football team throughout the 2003 and 2004 football seasons during 22 games and 62 practices from a total of 52 players. Although the incidence of injury data are limited, this study presents an extremely large data set from human head impacts that provides valuable insight into the lower limits of head acceleration that cause mild traumatic brain injuries.

  16. Practice type effects on head impact in collegiate football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Bryson B; Patrie, James; Henry, Erich J; Goodkin, Howard P; Broshek, Donna K; Wintermark, Max; Druzgal, T Jason

    2016-02-01

    OBJECT IVE: This study directly compares the number and severity of subconcussive head impacts sustained during helmet-only practices, shell practices, full-pad practices, and competitive games in a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I-A football team. The goal of the study was to determine whether subconcussive head impact in collegiate athletes varies with practice type, which is currently unregulated by the NCAA. Over an entire season, a cohort of 20 collegiate football players wore impact-sensing mastoid patches that measured the linear and rotational acceleration of all head impacts during a total of 890 athletic exposures. Data were analyzed to compare the number of head impacts, head impact burden, and average impact severity during helmet-only, shell, and full-pad practices, and games. Helmet-only, shell, and full-pad practices and games all significantly differed from each other (p ≤ 0.05) in the mean number of impacts for each event, with the number of impacts being greatest for games, then full-pad practices, then shell practices, and then helmet-only practices. The cumulative distributions for both linear and rotational acceleration differed between all event types (p football players.

  17. Effects of Sex and Event Type on Head Impact in Collegiate Soccer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Bryson B.; Patrie, James; Henry, Erich J.; Goodkin, Howard P.; Broshek, Donna K.; Wintermark, Max; Druzgal, T. Jason

    2017-01-01

    Background: The effects of head impact in sports are of growing interest for clinicians, scientists, and athletes. Soccer is the most popular sport worldwide, but the burden of head impact in collegiate soccer is still unknown. Purpose: To quantify head impact associated with practicing and playing collegiate soccer using wearable accelerometers. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiological study. Methods: Mastoid patch accelerometers were used to quantify head impact in soccer, examining differences in head impact as a function of sex and event type (practice vs game). Seven female and 14 male collegiate soccer players wore mastoid patch accelerometers that measured head impacts during team events. Data were summarized for each athletic exposure, and statistical analyses evaluated the mean number of impacts, mean peak linear acceleration, mean peak rotational acceleration, and cumulative linear and rotational acceleration, each grouped by sex and event type. Results: There were no differences in the frequency or severity of head impacts between men’s and women’s soccer practices. For men’s soccer, games resulted in 285% more head impacts than practices, but there were no event-type differences in mean impact severity. Men’s soccer games resulted in more head impacts than practices across nearly all measured impact severities, which also resulted in men’s soccer games producing a greater cumulative impact burden. Conclusion: Similar to other sports, men’s soccer games have a greater impact burden when compared with practices, and this effect is driven by the quantity rather than severity of head impacts. In contrast, there were no differences in the quantity or severity of head impacts in men’s and women’s soccer practices. These data could prompt discussions of practical concern to collegiate soccer, such as understanding sex differences in head impact and whether games disproportionately contribute to an athlete’s head impact burden. PMID:28491885

  18. The importance of rotational kinematics in pedestrian head to windshield impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mordaka, J.; Kleiven, S.; Schijndel-de Nooij, M. van; Lange, R. de; Casanova, L.J.G.; Carter, E.L.; Holst, H. von

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to analyze the effect of angular kinematics on head injury in pedestrian head-to-windshield impacts. Three cases of pedestrian head impacts were simulated with FE head and windshield models. The initial impact conditions were obtained from pedestrian accident

  19. Evaluating the "Threshold Theory": Can Head Impact Indicators Help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalik, Jason P; Lynall, Robert C; Wasserman, Erin B; Guskiewicz, Kevin M; Marshall, Stephen W

    2017-02-01

    This study aimed to determine the clinical utility of biomechanical head impact indicators by measuring the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PV+), and negative predictive value (PV-) of multiple thresholds. Head impact biomechanics (n = 283,348) from 185 football players in one Division I program were collected. A multidisciplinary clinical team independently made concussion diagnoses (n = 24). We dichotomized each impact using diagnosis (yes = 24, no = 283,324) and across a range of plausible impact indicator thresholds (10g increments beginning with a resultant linear head acceleration of 50g and ending with 120g). Some thresholds had adequate sensitivity, specificity, and PV-. All thresholds had low PV+, with the best recorded PV+ less than 0.4% when accounting for all head impacts sustained by our sample. Even when conservatively adjusting the frequency of diagnosed concussions by a factor of 5 to account for unreported/undiagnosed injuries, the PV+ of head impact indicators at any threshold was no greater than 1.94%. Although specificity and PV- appear high, the low PV+ would generate many unnecessary evaluations if these indicators were the sole diagnostic criteria. The clinical diagnostic value of head impact indicators is considerably questioned by these data. Notwithstanding, valid sensor technologies continue to offer objective data that have been used to improve player safety and reduce injury risk.

  20. Drill-specific head impact exposure in youth football practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campolettano, Eamon T; Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M

    2016-11-01

    OBJECTIVE Although 70% of football players in the United States are youth players (6-14 years old), most research on head impacts in football has focused on high school, collegiate, or professional populations. The objective of this study was to identify the specific activities associated with high-magnitude (acceleration > 40g) head impacts in youth football practices. METHODS A total of 34 players (mean age 9.9 ± 0.6 years) on 2 youth teams were equipped with helmet-mounted accelerometer arrays that recorded head accelerations associated with impacts in practices and games. Videos of practices and games were used to verify all head impacts and identify specific drills associated with each head impact. RESULTS A total of 6813 impacts were recorded, of which 408 had accelerations exceeding 40g (6.0%). For each type of practice drill, impact rates were computed that accounted for the length of time that teams spent on each drill. The tackling drill King of the Circle had the highest impact rate (95% CI 25.6-68.3 impacts/hr). Impact rates for tackling drills (those conducted without a blocker [95% CI 14.7-21.9 impacts/hr] and those with a blocker [95% CI 10.5-23.1 impacts/hr]) did not differ from game impact rates (95% CI 14.2-21.6 impacts/hr). Tackling drills were observed to have a greater proportion (between 40% and 50%) of impacts exceeding 60g than games (25%). The teams in this study participated in tackling or blocking drills for only 22% of their overall practice times, but these drills were responsible for 86% of all practice impacts exceeding 40g. CONCLUSIONS In youth football, high-magnitude impacts occur more often in practices than games, and some practice drills are associated with higher impact rates and accelerations than others. To mitigate high-magnitude head impact exposure in youth football, practices should be modified to decrease the time spent in drills with high impact rates, potentially eliminating a drill such as King of the Circle

  1. Development and field performance of indy race car head impact padding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, J W; Bock, H; Anderson, K; Gideon, T

    2001-11-01

    The close-fitting cockpit of the modern Indy car single seat race car has the potential to provide a high level of head and neck impact protection in rear and side impacts. Crash investigation has shown that a wide variety of materials have been used as the padding for these cockpits and, as a result, produced varying outcomes in crashes. Additionally, these pads have not always been positioned for optimal performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the head impact performance of a variety of energy-absorbing padding materials under impact conditions typical of Indy car rear impacts and to identify superior materials and methods of improving their performance as race car head pads. An extensive series of tests with the helmeted Hybrid III test dummy head and neck on an impact mini-sled was conducted to explore head padding concepts. Following this, a performance specification for a simplified impact test using a rigid headform that simulates the helmeted head was developed and recommendations for performance levels of head padding based on biomechanical data on helmeted head impacts were made. In 1997, during the time that the head pad research was being performed, the Indy Racing League introduced a new chassis specification for their cars. There were a number of rear- and side-impact crashes during that season that resulted in seven severe head injuries. Examples of the head padding in those cars were included in the experimental study. The results of the head pad research were used to specify new padding materials that met the new biomechanical criteria. The placement of the head pads was also changed for better location of the padding. These changes instituted in 1998 have reduced the number of head injuries in crashes similar to or more severe than those of 1997 and have resulted in only occasional moderate head injuries (concussions) in the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

  2. Effect of head rotation in whiplash-type rear impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Shrawan; Ferrari, Robert; Narayan, Yogesh

    2005-01-01

    Knowledge is increasing about the electromyographic and kinematic response of the neck muscles to rear impact, and also recent information is available on the effect of a rear impact offset to the left (posterolateral). The effect of head rotation, however, at the time of rear impact is not known. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of head rotation to the left and right on the cervical muscle response to increasing low-velocity posterolateral impacts. Twenty healthy volunteers were subjected to rear impacts of 4.7, 8.3, 10.9 and 13.7 m/s2 acceleration, offset by 45 degrees to the subject's left, with head rotation to right and left. Bilateral electromyograms of the sternocleidomastoids, trapezii and splenii capitis were recorded. Triaxial accelerometers recorded the acceleration of the sled, torso at the shoulder level, and head of the participant. With the head rotated to the right, at an acceleration of 13.7 m/s2, the left sternocleidomastoid generated 59% and the right sternocleidomastoid 20% of their maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) electromyogram (EMG). Under these conditions, the remaining muscles (both splenii capitis and trapezius) generated 25% or less of their MVC. With the head rotated to the left, at an acceleration of 13.7 m/s2, the right sternocleidomastoid generated 65% and the left sternocleidomastoid only 11% of the MVC EMG. Under these conditions, again the remaining muscles had low EMG activity (27% or less) with the exception of the left trapezius which generated 47% of its MVC. Electromyographic variables were significantly affected by the levels of acceleration (pfactor in determining the muscle response to whiplash, but head rotation at the time of impact is also important in this regard. More specifically, when a rear impact is left posterolateral, it results in increased EMG generation mainly in the contralateral sternocleidomastoid, as expected, but head rotation at the same time in this type of impact reduces the EMG

  3. The Role of Classroom Quality in Explaining Head Start Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connors, Maia C.; Friedman-Krauss, Allison H.; Morris, Pamela A.; Page, Lindsay C.; Feller, Avi

    2014-01-01

    This study seeks to answer the following question: Are impacts on Head Start classroom quality associated with impacts of Head Start on children's learning and development? This study employs a variety of descriptive and quasi-experimental methods to explore the role of classroom quality as a mediator or mechanism of Head Start impacts. This…

  4. Assessment of head injury of children due to golf ball impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Heow Pueh; Wang, Fang

    2010-10-01

    Head trauma injury due to impact by a flying golf ball is one of the most severe possible injury accidents on the golf course. Numerical simulations based on the finite element method are presented to investigate head injury in children due to impact by a flying golf ball. The stress and energy flow patterns in a head model during the golf ball impact are computed for various combinations of striking speed, falling angle of the golf ball before impact, and impact location. It is found that a child is more prone to head injury due to golf ball impact on the frontal and side/temporal areas. The simulated results are found to conform to the clinical reports on children's head injuries from flying golf balls.

  5. Head Impact Exposure and Neurologic Function of Youth Football Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munce, Thayne A; Dorman, Jason C; Thompson, Paul A; Valentine, Verle D; Bergeron, Michael F

    2015-08-01

    Football players are subjected to repetitive impacts that may lead to brain injury and neurologic dysfunction. Knowledge about head impact exposure (HIE) and consequent neurologic function among youth football players is limited. This study aimed to measure and characterize HIE of youth football players throughout one season and explore associations between HIE and changes in selected clinical measures of neurologic function. Twenty-two youth football players (11-13 yr) wore helmets outfitted with a head impact telemetry (HIT) system to quantify head impact frequency, magnitude, duration, and location. Impact data were collected for each practice (27) and game (9) in a single season. Selected clinical measures of balance, oculomotor performance, reaction time, and self-reported symptoms were assessed before and after the season. The median individual head impacts per practice, per game, and throughout the entire season were 9, 12, and 252, respectively. Approximately 50% of all head impacts (6183) had a linear acceleration between 10g and 20g, but nearly 2% were greater than 80g. Overall, the head impact frequency distributions in this study population were similar in magnitude and location as in high school and collegiate football, but total impact frequency was lower. Individual changes in neurologic function were not associated with cumulative HIE. This study provides a novel examination of HIE and associations with short-term neurologic function in youth football and notably contributes to the limited HIE data currently available for this population. Whereas youth football players can experience remarkably similar head impact forces as high school players, cumulative subconcussive HIE throughout one youth football season may not be detrimental to short-term clinical measures of neurologic function.

  6. Head Impact Exposure in Junior and Adult Australian Football Players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Hecimovich

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study measured and compared the frequency, magnitude, and distribution of head impacts sustained by junior and adult Australian football players, respectively, and between player positions over a season of games. Twelve junior and twelve adult players were tracked using a skin-mounted impact sensor. Head impact exposure, including frequency, magnitude, and location of impacts, was quantified using previously established methods. Over the collection period, there were no significant differences in the impact frequency between junior and adult players. However, there was a significant increase in the frequency of head impacts for midfielders in both grades once we accounted for player position. A comparable amount of head impacts in both junior and adult players has implications for Australian football regarding player safety and medical coverage as younger players sustained similar impact levels as adult players. The other implication of a higher impact profile within midfielders is that, by targeting education and prevention strategies, a decrease in the incidence of sports-related concussion may result.

  7. Head Start Impact Study. Final Report. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael; Bell, Stephen; Cook, Ronna; Heid, Camilla; Shapiro, Gary; Broene, Pam; Jenkins, Frank; Fletcher, Philip; Quinn, Liz; Friedman, Janet; Ciarico, Janet; Rohacek, Monica; Adams, Gina; Spier, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings from a study on the impacts of Head Start on children and families during the children's preschool, kindergarten, and 1st grade years. Its study goals were to: (1) Determine the impact of Head Start on children's school readiness, and on parental practices that support children's development; and to (2)…

  8. Characterizing Verified Head Impacts in High School Girls' Lacrosse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caswell, Shane V; Lincoln, Andrew E; Stone, Hannah; Kelshaw, Patricia; Putukian, Margot; Hepburn, Lisa; Higgins, Michael; Cortes, Nelson

    2017-12-01

    Girls' high school lacrosse players have higher rates of head and facial injuries than boys. Research indicates that these injuries are caused by stick, player, and ball contacts. Yet, no studies have characterized head impacts in girls' high school lacrosse. To characterize girls' high school lacrosse game-related impacts by frequency, magnitude, mechanism, player position, and game situation. Descriptive epidemiology study. Thirty-five female participants (mean age, 16.2 ± 1.2 years; mean height, 1.66 ± 0.05 m; mean weight, 61.2 ± 6.4 kg) volunteered during 28 games in the 2014 and 2015 lacrosse seasons. Participants wore impact sensors affixed to the right mastoid process before each game. All game-related impacts recorded by the sensors were verified using game video. Data were summarized for all verified impacts in terms of frequency, peak linear acceleration (PLA), and peak rotational acceleration (PRA). Descriptive statistics and impact rates were calculated. Fifty-eight verified game-related impacts ≥20 g were recorded (median PLA, 33.8 g; median PRA, 6151.1 rad/s 2 ) during 467 player-games. The impact rate for all game-related verified impacts was 0.12 per athlete-exposure (AE) (95% CI, 0.09-0.16), equivalent to 2.1 impacts per team game, indicating that each athlete suffered fewer than 2 head impacts per season ≥20 g. Of these impacts, 28 (48.3%) were confirmed to directly strike the head, corresponding with an impact rate of 0.05 per AE (95% CI, 0.00-0.10). Overall, midfielders (n = 28, 48.3%) sustained the most impacts, followed by defenders (n = 12, 20.7%), attackers (n = 11, 19.0%), and goalies (n = 7, 12.1%). Goalies demonstrated the highest median PLA and PRA (38.8 g and 8535.0 rad/s 2 , respectively). The most common impact mechanisms were contact with a stick (n = 25, 43.1%) and a player (n = 17, 29.3%), followed by the ball (n = 7, 12.1%) and the ground (n = 7, 12.1%). One hundred percent of ball impacts occurred to goalies. Most impacts

  9. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

  10. Head impact exposure measured in a single youth football team during practice drills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Mireille E; Kane, Joeline M; Espeland, Mark A; Miller, Logan E; Powers, Alexander K; Stitzel, Joel D; Urban, Jillian E

    2017-11-01

    OBJECTIVE This study evaluated the frequency, magnitude, and location of head impacts in practice drills within a youth football team to determine how head impact exposure varies among different types of drills. METHODS On-field head impact data were collected from athletes participating in a youth football team for a single season. Each athlete wore a helmet instrumented with a Head Impact Telemetry (HIT) System head acceleration measurement device during all preseason, regular season, and playoff practices. Video was recorded for all practices, and video analysis was performed to verify head impacts and assign each head impact to a specific drill. Eleven drills were identified: dummy/sled tackling, install, special teams, Oklahoma, one-on-one, open-field tackling, passing, position skill work, multiplayer tackle, scrimmage, and tackling drill stations. Generalized linear models were fitted to log-transformed data, and Wald tests were used to assess differences in head accelerations and impact rates. RESULTS A total of 2125 impacts were measured during 30 contact practices in 9 athletes (mean age 11.1 ± 0.6 years, mean mass 44.9 ± 4.1 kg). Open-field tackling had the highest median and 95th percentile linear accelerations (24.7 g and 97.8 g, respectively) and resulted in significantly higher mean head accelerations than several other drills. The multiplayer tackle drill resulted in the highest head impact frequency, with an average of 0.59 impacts per minute per athlete, but the lowest 95th percentile linear accelerations of all drills. The front of the head was the most common impact location for all drills except dummy/sled tackling. CONCLUSIONS Head impact exposure varies significantly in youth football practice drills, with several drills exposing athletes to high-magnitude and/or high-frequency head impacts. These data suggest that further study of practice drills is an important step in developing evidence-based recommendations for modifying or eliminating

  11. Safer passenger car front shapes for pedestrians: A computational approach to reduce overall pedestrian injury risk in realistic impact scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guibing; Yang, Jikuang; Simms, Ciaran

    2017-03-01

    Vehicle front shape has a significant influence on pedestrian injuries and the optimal design for overall pedestrian protection remains an elusive goal, especially considering the variability of vehicle-to-pedestrian accident scenarios. Therefore this study aims to develop and evaluate an efficient framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection accounting for the broad range of real world impact scenarios and their distributions in recent accident data. Firstly, a framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection was developed based on coupling of multi-body simulations and a genetic algorithm. This framework was then applied for optimizing passenger car front shape for pedestrian protection, and its predictions were evaluated using accident data and kinematic analyses. The results indicate that the optimization shows a good convergence and predictions of the optimization framework are corroborated when compared to the available accident data, and the optimization framework can distinguish 'good' and 'poor' vehicle front shapes for pedestrian safety. Thus, it is feasible and reliable to use the optimization framework for vehicle front shape optimization for reducing overall pedestrian injury risk. The results also show the importance of considering the broad range of impact scenarios in vehicle front shape optimization. A safe passenger car for overall pedestrian protection should have a wide and flat bumper (covering pedestrians' legs from the lower leg up to the shaft of the upper leg with generally even contacts), a bonnet leading edge height around 750mm, a short bonnet (17° or car front shape for head and leg protection are generally consistent, but partially conflict with pelvis protection. In particular, both head and leg injury risk increase with increasing bumper lower height and depth, and decrease with increasing bonnet leading edge height, while pelvis injury risk increases with increasing bonnet leading

  12. Video Analysis Verification of Head Impact Events Measured by Wearable Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Nelson; Lincoln, Andrew E; Myer, Gregory D; Hepburn, Lisa; Higgins, Michael; Putukian, Margot; Caswell, Shane V

    2017-08-01

    Wearable sensors are increasingly used to quantify the frequency and magnitude of head impact events in multiple sports. There is a paucity of evidence that verifies head impact events recorded by wearable sensors. To utilize video analysis to verify head impact events recorded by wearable sensors and describe the respective frequency and magnitude. Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Thirty male (mean age, 16.6 ± 1.2 years; mean height, 1.77 ± 0.06 m; mean weight, 73.4 ± 12.2 kg) and 35 female (mean age, 16.2 ± 1.3 years; mean height, 1.66 ± 0.05 m; mean weight, 61.2 ± 6.4 kg) players volunteered to participate in this study during the 2014 and 2015 lacrosse seasons. Participants were instrumented with GForceTracker (GFT; boys) and X-Patch sensors (girls). Simultaneous game video was recorded by a trained videographer using a single camera located at the highest midfield location. One-third of the field was framed and panned to follow the ball during games. Videographic and accelerometer data were time synchronized. Head impact counts were compared with video recordings and were deemed valid if (1) the linear acceleration was ≥20 g, (2) the player was identified on the field, (3) the player was in camera view, and (4) the head impact mechanism could be clearly identified. Descriptive statistics of peak linear acceleration (PLA) and peak rotational velocity (PRV) for all verified head impacts ≥20 g were calculated. For the boys, a total recorded 1063 impacts (2014: n = 545; 2015: n = 518) were logged by the GFT between game start and end times (mean PLA, 46 ± 31 g; mean PRV, 1093 ± 661 deg/s) during 368 player-games. Of these impacts, 690 were verified via video analysis (65%; mean PLA, 48 ± 34 g; mean PRV, 1242 ± 617 deg/s). The X-Patch sensors, worn by the girls, recorded a total 180 impacts during the course of the games, and 58 (2014: n = 33; 2015: n = 25) were verified via video analysis (32%; mean PLA, 39 ± 21 g; mean PRV, 1664

  13. Player and Game Characteristics and Head Impacts in Female Youth Ice Hockey Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Nick; Taha, Tim; Greenwald, Richard; Keightley, Michelle

    2017-08-01

      Despite the growing popularity of ice hockey among female youth and interest in the biomechanics of head impacts in sport, the head impacts sustained by this population have yet to be characterized.   To describe the number of, biomechanical characteristics of, and exposure to head impacts of female youth ice hockey players during competition and to investigate the influences of player and game characteristics on head impacts.   Cohort study.   Twenty-seven female youth ice hockey players (mean age = 12.5 ± 0.52 years) wore instrumented ice hockey helmets during 66 ice hockey games over a 3-year period. Data specific to player, game, and biomechanical head impact characteristics were recorded. A multiple regression analysis identified factors most associated with head impacts of greater frequency and severity.   A total of 436 total head impacts were sustained during 6924 minutes of active ice hockey participation (0.9 ± 0.6 impacts per player per game; range, 0-2.1). A higher body mass index (BMI) significantly predicted a higher number of head impacts sustained per game (P = .008). Linear acceleration of head impacts was greater in older players and those who played the forward position, had a greater BMI, and spent more time on the ice (P = .008), whereas greater rotational acceleration was present in older players who had a greater BMI and played the forward position (P = .008). During tournament games, increased ice time predicted increased severity of head impacts (P = .03).   This study reveals for the first time that head impacts are occurring in female youth ice hockey players, albeit at a lower rate and severity than in male youth ice hockey players, despite the lack of intentional body checking.

  14. Environmental and Physiological Factors Affect Football Head Impact Biomechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalik, Jason P; Sumrall, Adam Z; Yeargin, Susan W; Guskiewicz, Kevin M; King, Kevin B; Trulock, Scott C; Shields, Edgar W

    2017-10-01

    Recent anecdotal trends suggest a disproportionate number of head injuries in collegiate football players occur during preseason football camp. In warmer climates, this season also represents the highest risk for heat-related illness among collegiate football players. Because concussion and heat illnesses share many common symptoms, we need 1) to understand if environmental conditions, body temperature, and hydration status affect head impact biomechanics; and 2) to determine if an in-helmet thermistor could provide a valid measure of gastrointestinal temperature. A prospective cohort of 18 Division I college football players (age, 21.1 ± 1.4 yr; height, 187.7 ± 6.6 cm; mass, 114.5 ± 23.4 kg). Data were collected during one control and three experimental sessions. During each session, the Head Impact Telemetry System recorded head impact biomechanics (linear acceleration, rotational acceleration, and severity profile) and in-helmet temperature. A wet bulb globe device recorded environmental conditions, and CorTemp™ Ingestible Core Body Temperature Sensors recorded gastrointestinal temperature. Our findings suggest that linear acceleration (P = 0.57), rotational acceleration (P = 0.16), and Head Impact Technology severity profile (P = 0.33) are not influenced by environmental or physiological conditions. We did not find any single or combination of predictors for impact severity. Rotational acceleration was approaching significance between our early experimental sessions when compared with our control session. More research should be conducted to better understand if rotational accelerations are a component of impact magnitudes that are affected due to changes in environmental conditions, body temperature, and hydration status.

  15. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  16. Football Players' Head-Impact Exposure After Limiting of Full-Contact Practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broglio, Steven P; Williams, Richelle M; O'Connor, Kathryn L; Goldstick, Jason

    2016-07-01

    Sporting organizations limit full-contact football practices to reduce concussion risk and based on speculation that repeated head impacts may result in long-term neurodegeneration. To directly compare head-impact exposure in high school football players before and after a statewide restriction on full-contact practices. Cross-sectional study. High school football field. Participants were varsity football athletes from a single high school. Before the rule change, 26 athletes (age = 16.2 ± 0.8 years, height = 179.6 ± 6.4 cm, weight = 81.9 ± 13.1 kg) participated. After the rule change, 24 athletes (age = 15.9 ± 0.8 years, height = 178.3 ± 6.5 cm, weight = 76.2 ± 11.6 kg) participated. Nine athletes participated in both years of the investigation. Head-impact exposure was monitored using the Head Impact Telemetry System while the athletes participated in football games and practices in the seasons before and after the rule change. Head-impact frequency, location, and magnitude (ie, linear acceleration, rotational acceleration, and Head Impact Telemetry severity profile [HITsp], respectively) were measured. A total of 15 398 impacts (592 impacts per player per season) were captured before the rule change and 8269 impacts (345 impacts per player per season) after the change. An average 42% decline in impact exposure occurred across all players, with practice-exposure declines occurring among linemen (46% decline); receivers, cornerbacks, and safeties (41% decline); and tight ends, running backs (including fullbacks), and linebackers (39% decline). Impact magnitudes remained largely unchanged between the years. A rule change limiting full-contact high school football practices appears to have been effective in reducing head-impact exposure across all players, with the largest reduction occurring among linemen. This finding is likely associated with the rule modification, particularly because the coaching staff and offensive scheme remained consistent, yet how

  17. Multiscale Analysis of Head Impacts in Contact Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guttag, Mark; Sett, Subham; Franck, Jennifer; McNamara, Kyle; Bar-Kochba, Eyal; Crisco, Joseph; Blume, Janet; Franck, Christian

    2012-02-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the world's major causes of death and disability. To aid companies in designing safer and improved protective gear and to aid the medical community in producing improved quantitative TBI diagnosis and assessment tools, a multiscale finite element model of the human brain, head and neck is being developed. Recorded impact data from football and hockey helmets instrumented with accelerometers are compared to simulated impact data in the laboratory. Using data from these carefully constructed laboratory experiments, we can quantify impact location, magnitude, and linear and angular accelerations of the head. The resultant forces and accelerations are applied to a fully meshed head-form created from MRI data by Simpleware. With appropriate material properties for each region of the head-form, the Abaqus finite element model can determine the stresses, strains, and deformations in the brain. Simultaneously, an in-vitro cellular TBI criterion is being developed to be incorporated into Abaqus models for the brain. The cell-based injury criterion functions the same way that damage criteria for metals and other materials are used to predict failure in structural materials.

  18. Comprehensive Coach Education Reduces Head Impact Exposure in American Youth Football

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Zachary Y.; Yeargin, Susan W.; Valovich McLeod, Tamara C.; Mensch, James; Hayden, Ross; Dompier, Thomas P.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite little evidence that defines a threshold of head impact exposure or that participation in youth sports leads to long-term cognitive impairments, it is prudent to identify methods of reducing the frequency of head impacts. Purpose: To compare the mean number of head impacts between youth football players in practice and games between leagues that implemented the Heads Up Football (HUF) educational program and those that did not (NHUF). Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: During the 2014 season, head impact exposure was measured using xPatch accelerometers from 70 youth football players aged 8 to 15 years from 5 leagues. Data were collected during both games and practices. The NHUF group comprised 32 players from 8 teams within 3 leagues. The HUF group comprised 38 players from 7 teams within 2 leagues. Independent-sample t tests evaluated differences in head impact exposure across groups (ie, HUF and NHUF). Results: Players (mean ± SD: age, 11.7 ± 1.4 years; height, 152.2 ± 10.5 cm; weight, 51.6 ± 9.6 kg) experienced a total of 7478 impacts over 10g, of which 4250 (56.8%) and 3228 (43.2%) occurred in practices and games, respectively. The majority of impacts occurred within the NHUF group (62.0%), followed by the HUF group (38.0%). With a 10g impact threshold, the mean number of impacts during practice per individual event was lower in the HUF group (mean ± SD, 5.6 ± 2.9) than in the NHUF group (mean ± SD, 8.9 ± 3.1; difference, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.9-3.9). This difference was attenuated when the threshold was changed to 20g but remained significant (difference, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.7-1.3). At both the 10g and 20g impact thresholds, no differences were found in games. Conclusion: Players who participated in HUF leagues accumulated fewer head impacts per practice at both the 10g and 20g thresholds. Youth football leagues should consider the HUF educational program, while exploring additional interventions, to help reduce the

  19. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  20. Comparative analyses of bicyclists and motorcyclists in vehicle collisions focusing on head impact responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinghua; Peng, Yong; Yi, Shengen

    2017-11-01

    To investigate the differences of the head impact responses between bicyclists and motorcyclists in vehicle collisions. A series of vehicle-bicycle and vehicle-motorcycle lateral impact simulations on four vehicle types at seven vehicle speeds (30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 km/h) and three two-wheeler moving speeds (5, 7.5 and 10 km/h for bicycle, 10, 12.5 and 15 km/h for motorcycle) were established based on PC-Crash software. To further comprehensively explore the differences, additional impact scenes with other initial conditions, such as impact angle (0, π/3, 2π/3 and π) and impact position (left, middle and right part of vehicle front-end), also were supplemented. And then, extensive comparisons were accomplished with regard to average head peak linear acceleration, average head impact speed, average head peak angular acceleration, average head peak angular speed and head injury severity. The results showed there were prominent differences of kinematics and body postures for bicyclists and motorcyclists even under same impact conditions. The variations of bicyclist head impact responses with the changing of impact conditions were a far cry from that of motorcyclists. The average head peak linear acceleration, average head impact speed and average head peak angular acceleration values were higher for motorcyclists than for bicyclists in most cases, while the bicyclists received greater average head peak angular speed values. And the head injuries of motorcyclists worsened faster with increased vehicle speed. The results may provide even deeper understanding of two-wheeler safety and contribute to improve the public health affected by road traffic accidents.

  1. A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

    2018-01-01

    Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

  2. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  3. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. An experimental and numerical investigation of head dynamics due to stick impacts in girls' lacrosse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Justin D; Franck, Jennifer A; Wilcox, Bethany J; Crisco, Joseph J; Franck, Christian

    2014-12-01

    A method of investigating head acceleration and intracranial dynamics from stick impacts in girls' and women's lacrosse was developed using headform impact experiments and a finite element head model. Assessing the likelihood of head injury due to stick-head impacts is of interest in girls' and women's lacrosse due to the current lack of head protection during play. Experimental and simulation data were compared to characterize the head acceleration caused by stick-head impacts. Validation against cadaver head impact experiments ensures that the finite element model, with its relatively simple material properties, can provide means to develop a better understanding of the intracranial dynamics during lacrosse stick impacts. Our numerical results showed the peak acceleration at the center of gravity increased linearly with impact force, and was generally in agreement with the experimental data. von Mises stresses and peak principal strains, two common literature injury indicators, were examined within the finite element model, and peak values were below the previously reported thresholds for mild traumatic brain injury. By reconstructing typical in-game, unprotected stick-head impacts, this investigation lays the foundation for a quantitative methodology of injury prediction in girls' and womens' lacrosse.

  5. Head Start's Impact Is Contingent on Alternative Type of Care in Comparison Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Fuhua; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

    2014-01-01

    Using data ("n" = 3,790 with 2,119 in the 3-year-old cohort and 1,671 in the 4-year-old cohort) from 353 Head Start centers in the Head Start Impact Study, the only large-scale randomized experiment in Head Start history, this article examined the impact of Head Start on children's cognitive and parent-reported social-behavioral outcomes…

  6. Elemental Water Impact Test: Phase 2 36-Inch Aluminum Tank Head

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilakos, Gregory J.

    2014-01-01

    Spacecraft are being designed based on LS-DYNA simulations of water landing impacts. The Elemental Water Impact Test (EWIT) series was undertaken to assess the accuracy of LS-DYNA water impact simulations. EWIT Phase 2 featured a 36-inch aluminum tank head. The tank head was outfitted with one accelerometer, twelve pressure transducers, three string potentiometers, and four strain gages. The tank head was dropped from heights of 1 foot and 2 feet. The focus of this report is the correlation of analytical models against test data. As a measure of prediction accuracy, peak responses from the baseline LS-DYNA model were compared to peak responses from the tests.

  7. Head Start Impact on Social-Emotional Outcomes for Children with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyunghee; Calkins, Andrea; Shin, Tae Seob

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Using the Head Start Impact Study data, this study examines Head Start's impacts on social-emotional outcomes for children with disabilities. Method: Among 4,442 children, 570 children were reported to have disabilities. Ordinary least squares regression was used to determine whether the number of disabilities, having an individualized…

  8. Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

  9. Head impacts in a junior rugby league team measured with a wireless head impact sensor: an exploratory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Doug; Hume, Patria; Gissane, Conor; Clark, Trevor

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency, magnitude, and distribution of head impacts sustained by players in a junior rugby league over a season of matches. METHODS The authors performed a prospective cohort analysis of impact magnitude, frequency, and distribution on data collected with instrumented XPatches worn behind the ear of players in an "under-11" junior rugby league team (players under 11 years old). RESULTS A total of 1977 impacts were recorded. Over the course of the study, players sustained an average of 116 impacts (average of 13 impacts per player per match). The measured linear acceleration ranged from 10g to 123g (mean 22g, median 16g, and 95th percentile 57g). The rotational acceleration ranged from 89 rad/sec 2 to 22,928 rad/sec 2 (mean 4041 rad/sec 2 , median 2773 rad/sec 2 , and 95th percentile 11,384 rad/sec 2 ). CONCLUSIONS The level of impact severity based on the magnitude of impacts for linear and rotational accelerations recorded was similar to the impacts reported in studies of American junior and high school football, collegiate football, and youth ice hockey players, but the players in the rugby league cohort were younger, had less body mass, and played at a slower speed than the American players. Junior rugby league players are required to tackle the player to the ground and use a different tackle technique than that used in American football, likely increasing the rotational accelerations recorded at the head.

  10. Analysis of head impacts during sub-elite hurling practice sessions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, D; Roe, M; Blake, C

    2018-06-01

    The reported incidence of head and neck injuries in hurling is 0.12 per 1000 hours, but no previous research has quantified head impact characteristics in this sport. Here, a wireless accelerometer and gyroscope captured head impacts, in 20 senior club level hurling players. Peak linear and rotational acceleration and impact location were recorded during three hurling training sessions, each player participating once. A mean of 27.9 impacts (linear acceleration >10g) per player, per session were recorded; 1314 impacts during a total exposure time of 247 minutes. Only 2.6% impacts had peak linear acceleration of >70g and 6.2% had peak rotational acceleration >7900 rad/s 2 . There were significant differences in the number and magnitude of impacts, quantified by the accelerometer, between three training sessions of differing intensity (ŋ2 0.03-0.09, p impacts during hurling, demonstrating the feasibility of this technology in the field. The sensors were able to discriminate between sessions of varying intensity. These data can be used to develop athlete monitoring protocols and may be useful in developing innovative helmet-testing standards for hurling. The potential for this technology to provide feedback has clinical utility for team medical personnel.

  11. Characteristics of debris in the lower head of a BWR in different severe accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phung, Viet-Anh; Galushin, Sergey; Raub, Sebastian; Goronovski, Andrei; Villanueva, Walter; Kööp, Kaspar; Grishchenko, Dmitry; Kudinov, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Station blackout scenario with delayed recovery of safety systems in a Nordic BWR is considered. • Genetic algorithm and random sampling methods are used to explore accident scenario domain. • Main groups of scenarios are identified. • Ranges and distributions of characteristics of debris bed in the lower head are determined. - Abstract: Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) adopt ex-vessel debris cooling to terminate severe accident progression. Core melt released from the vessel into a deep pool of water is expected to fragment and form a coolable debris bed. Characteristics of corium melt ejection from the vessel determine conditions for molten fuel–coolant interactions (FCI) and debris bed formation. Non-coolable debris bed or steam explosion can threaten containment integrity. Vessel failure and melt ejection mode are determined by the in-vessel accident progression. Characteristics (such as mass, composition, thermal properties, timing of relocation, and decay heat) of the debris bed formed in the process of core relocation into the vessel lower plenum define conditions for the debris reheating, remelting, melt-vessel structure interactions, vessel failure and melt release. Thus core degradation and relocation are important sources of uncertainty for the success of the ex-vessel accident mitigation strategy. The goal of this work is improve understanding how accident scenario parameters, such as timing of failure and recovery of different safety systems can affect characteristics of the debris in the lower plenum. Station blackout scenario with delayed power recovery in a Nordic BWR is considered using MELCOR code. The recovery timing and capacity of safety systems were varied using genetic algorithm (GA) and random sampling methods to identify two main groups of scenarios: with relatively small ( 100 tons) amount of relocated debris. The domains are separated by the transition regions, in which relatively small variations of the input

  12. Characteristics of debris in the lower head of a BWR in different severe accident scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phung, Viet-Anh, E-mail: vaphung@kth.se; Galushin, Sergey, E-mail: galushin@kth.se; Raub, Sebastian, E-mail: raub@kth.se; Goronovski, Andrei, E-mail: andreig@kth.se; Villanueva, Walter, E-mail: walterv@kth.se; Kööp, Kaspar, E-mail: kaspar@safety.sci.kth.se; Grishchenko, Dmitry, E-mail: dmitry@safety.sci.kth.se; Kudinov, Pavel, E-mail: pavel@safety.sci.kth.se

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • Station blackout scenario with delayed recovery of safety systems in a Nordic BWR is considered. • Genetic algorithm and random sampling methods are used to explore accident scenario domain. • Main groups of scenarios are identified. • Ranges and distributions of characteristics of debris bed in the lower head are determined. - Abstract: Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) adopt ex-vessel debris cooling to terminate severe accident progression. Core melt released from the vessel into a deep pool of water is expected to fragment and form a coolable debris bed. Characteristics of corium melt ejection from the vessel determine conditions for molten fuel–coolant interactions (FCI) and debris bed formation. Non-coolable debris bed or steam explosion can threaten containment integrity. Vessel failure and melt ejection mode are determined by the in-vessel accident progression. Characteristics (such as mass, composition, thermal properties, timing of relocation, and decay heat) of the debris bed formed in the process of core relocation into the vessel lower plenum define conditions for the debris reheating, remelting, melt-vessel structure interactions, vessel failure and melt release. Thus core degradation and relocation are important sources of uncertainty for the success of the ex-vessel accident mitigation strategy. The goal of this work is improve understanding how accident scenario parameters, such as timing of failure and recovery of different safety systems can affect characteristics of the debris in the lower plenum. Station blackout scenario with delayed power recovery in a Nordic BWR is considered using MELCOR code. The recovery timing and capacity of safety systems were varied using genetic algorithm (GA) and random sampling methods to identify two main groups of scenarios: with relatively small (<20 tons) and large (>100 tons) amount of relocated debris. The domains are separated by the transition regions, in which relatively small

  13. Correlating cumulative sub-concussive head impacts in football with player performance - biomed 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowson, Steven; Goforth, Mike W; Dietter, Dave; Brolinson, P Gunnar; Duma, Stefanan M

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of cumulative sub-concussive head impacts on football player performance. The helmets of three Virginia Tech football players were instrumented with a six accelerometer sensor capable of measuring head acceleration. Helmets were instrumented for every game during the 2006 and 2007 football seasons. Each time the head was impacted during a game, the sensor recorded the impact and wirelessly transmitted the data to a sideline computer. Furthermore, the coaching staff at Virginia Tech reviewed post-game film and evaluated each player's performance based on strict criteria. Players were awarded positive points for good plays and negative points for bad plays. Their performance scores were then normalized to a per play basis. Correlations of player performance with cumulative peak linear acceleration and cumulative head injury criterion (HIC) were evaluated. No consistent head acceleration-based measure showed a strong correlation with significance. In addition, relationship trends varied on a position basis. There are many factors other than head impacts that can affect a player's performance and more research is needed to further quantify such effects.

  14. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

  15. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  16. Evaluation of possible head injuries ensuing a cricket ball impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohotti, Damith; Fernando, P L N; Zaghloul, Amir

    2018-05-01

    The aim of this research is to study the behaviour of a human head during the event of an impact of a cricket ball. While many recent incidents were reported in relation to head injuries caused by the impact of cricket balls, there is no clear information available in the published literature about the possible threat levels and the protection level of the current protective equipment. This research investigates the effects of an impact of a cricket ball on a human head and the level of protection offered by the existing standard cricket helmet. An experimental program was carried out to measure the localised pressure caused by the impact of standard cricket balls. The balls were directed at a speed of 110 km/h on a 3D printed head model, with and without a standard cricket helmet. Numerical simulations were carried out using advanced finite element package LS-DYNA to validate the experimental results. The experimental and numerical results showed approximately a 60% reduction in the pressure on the head model when the helmet was used. Both frontal and side impact resulted in head acceleration values in the range of 225-250 g at a ball speed of 110 km/h. There was a 36% reduction observed in the peak acceleration of the brain when wearing a helmet. Furthermore, numerical simulations showed a 67% reduction in the force on the skull and a 95% reduction in the skull internal energy when introducing the helmet. (1) Upon impact, high localised pressure could cause concussion for a player without helmet. (2) When a helmet was used, the acceleration of the brain observed in the numerical results was at non-critical levels according to existing standards. (3) A significant increase in the threat levels was observed for a player without helmet, based on force, pressure, acceleration and energy criteria, which resulted in recommending the compulsory use of the cricket helmet. (4) Numerical results showed a good correlation with experimental results and hence, the

  17. Hybrid III anthropomorphic test device (ATD) response to head impacts and potential implications for athletic headgear testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Adam; Benzel, Edward; Miele, Vincent; Morr, Douglas; Prakash, Vikas

    2012-09-01

    The Hybrid III 50th percentile male anthropomorphic test device (ATD) is the most widely used human impact testing surrogate and has historically been used in automotive or military testing. More recently, this ATD is finding use in applications evaluating athletic helmet protectivity, quantifying head impact dosage and estimating injury risk. But ATD head-neck response has not been quantified in omnidirectional athletic-type head impacts absent axial preload. It is probable that headgear injury reduction that can be quantified in a laboratory, including in American football, boxing, hockey, lacrosse and soccer, is related to a number of interrelated kinetic and kinematic factors, such as head center of gravity linear acceleration, head angular acceleration, head angular velocity, occipito-cervical mechanics and neck stiffness. Therefore, we characterized ATD head-neck dynamic response to direct head impacts in a series of front, oblique front and lateral head impacts. Key findings were: (1) impacts producing highest ATD resultant center of gravity linear acceleration resulted in the lowest resultant occipito-cervical spine bending moment/force. (2) Resultant ATD head angular velocity and angular acceleration did not appear coupled to impact direction at lower impact energy levels; these parameters were coupled at higher energy levels. (3) The ATD had progressively increasing occipito-cervical stiffness in extension, torsion and lateral bending, respectively. Because the ATD neck influenced head and neck impact dosage parameters, testing agencies, manufacturers and researchers should consider using the Hybrid III head form attached to a neck as a means to quantify head and neck injury risks as opposed to systems that do not utilize a neck. This heightened understanding of Hybrid III ATD head-neck response, and consideration of order of stiffest axes in the lateral, oblique and extension directions, respectively, should aid in the development of head and neck injury

  18. The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

    1988-07-01

    In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a

  19. Motion of the head and neck of female and male volunteers in rear impact car-to-car impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsson, Anna; Siegmund, Gunter P; Linder, Astrid; Svensson, Mats Y

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to quantify and compare dynamic motion responses between 50th percentile female and male volunteers in rear impact tests. These data are fundamental for developing future occupant models for crash safety development and assessment. High-speed video data from a rear impact test series with 21 male and 21 female volunteers at 4 and 8 km/h, originally presented in Siegmund et al. (1997), were used for further analysis. Data from a subset of female volunteers, 12 at 4 km/h and 9 at 8 km/h, were extracted from the original data set to represent the 50th percentile female. Their average height was 163 cm and their average weight was 62 kg. Among the male volunteers, 11 were selected, with an average height of 175 cm and an average weight of 73 kg, to represent the 50th percentile male. Response corridors were generated for the horizontal and angular displacements of the head, T1 (first thoracic vertebra), and the head relative to T1. T-tests were performed with the statistical significance level of .05 to quantify the significance of the differences in parameter values for the males and females. Several differences were found in the average motion response of the male and female volunteers at 4 and 8 km/h. Generally, females had smaller rearward horizontal and angular motions of the head and T1 compared to the males. This was mainly due to shorter initial head-to-head restraint distance and earlier head-to-head restraint contact for the females. At 8 km/h, the female volunteers showed 12 percent lower horizontal peak rearward head displacement (P = .018); 22 percent lower horizontal peak rearward head relative to T1 displacement (P = .018); and 30 percent lower peak head extension angle (P = .001). The females also had more pronounced rebound motion. This study indicates that there may be characteristic differences in the head-neck motion response between 50th percentile males and females in rear impacts. The exclusive use of 50th

  20. Validation of an "Intelligent Mouthguard" Single Event Head Impact Dosimeter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Adam; Samorezov, Sergey; Benzel, Edward; Miele, Vincent; Brett, Daniel

    2014-11-01

    Dating to Colonel John Paul Stapp MD in 1975, scientists have desired to measure live human head impacts with accuracy and precision. But no instrument exists to accurately and precisely quantify single head impact events. Our goal is to develop a practical single event head impact dosimeter known as "Intelligent Mouthguard" and quantify its performance on the benchtop, in vitro and in vivo. In the Intelligent Mouthguard hardware, limited gyroscope bandwidth requires an algorithm-based correction as a function of impact duration. After we apply gyroscope correction algorithm, Intelligent Mouthguard results at time of CG linear acceleration peak correlate to the Reference Hybrid III within our tested range of pulse durations and impact acceleration profiles in American football and Boxing in vitro tests: American football, IMG=1.00REF-1.1g, R2=0.99; maximum time of peak XYZ component imprecision 3.6g and 370 rad/s2; maximum time of peak azimuth and elevation imprecision 4.8° and 2.9°; maximum average XYZ component temporal imprecision 3.3g and 390 rad/s2. Boxing, IMG=1.00REF-0.9 g, R2=0.99, R2=0.98; maximum time of peak XYZ component imprecision 3.9 g and 390 rad/s2, maximum time of peak azimuth and elevation imprecision 2.9° and 2.1°; average XYZ component temporal imprecision 4.0 g and 440 rad/s2. In vivo Intelligent Mouthguard true positive head impacts from American football players and amateur boxers have temporal characteristics (first harmonic frequency from 35 Hz to 79 Hz) within our tested benchtop (first harmonic frequencyIntelligent Mouthguard qualifies as a single event dosimeter in American football and Boxing.

  1. Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

  2. Sensing Passive Eye Response to Impact Induced Head Acceleration Using MEMS IMUs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Yuan; Bottenfield, Brent; Bolding, Mark; Liu, Lei; Adams, Mark L

    2018-02-01

    The eye may act as a surrogate for the brain in response to head acceleration during an impact. Passive eye movements in a dynamic system are sensed by microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMU) in this paper. The technique is validated using a three-dimensional printed scaled human skull model and on human volunteers by performing drop-and-impact experiments with ribbon-style flexible printed circuit board IMUs inserted in the eyes and reference IMUs on the heads. Data are captured by a microcontroller unit and processed using data fusion. Displacements are thus estimated and match the measured parameters. Relative accelerations and displacements of the eye to the head are computed indicating the influence of the concussion causing impacts.

  3. Clinical Risk Factors for Head Impact During Falls in Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study in Long-Term Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yijian; Mackey, Dawn C; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa; Leung, Pet-Ming; Feldman, Fabio; Robinovitch, Stephen N

    To examine risk factors associated with head impact during falls in older adults in long-term care (LTC). Two LTC facilities in British Columbia, Canada. 160 LTC residents. Prospective cohort study. Between 2007 and 2014, we video captured 520 falls experienced by participants. Each fall video was analyzed to determine whether impact occurred to the head. Using generalized estimating equation models, we examined how head impact was associated with other fall characteristics and health status prior to the fall. Head impact occurred in 33% of falls. Individuals with mild cognitive impairment were at higher risk for head impact (odds ratio = 2.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-5.0) than those with more severe cognitive impairment. Impaired vision was associated with 2.0-fold (1.3-3.0) higher odds of head impact. Women were 2.2 times (1.4-3.3) more likely than men to impact their head during a fall. Head impact is common during falls in LTC, with less cognitively impaired, female residents who suffered from visual impairment, being most likely to impact their head. Future research should focus on improving our ability to detect neural consequences of head impact and evaluating the effect of interventions for reducing the risk for fall-related head injuries in LTC.

  4. School Readiness in Children Living in Non-Parental Care: Impacts of Head Start

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipscomb, Shannon T.; Pratt, Megan E.; Schmitt, Sara A.; Pears, Katherine C.; Kim, Hyoun K.

    2013-01-01

    The current study examines the effects of Head Start on the development of school readiness outcomes for children living in non-parental care. Data were obtained from the Head Start Impact Study, a randomized controlled trial of Head Start conducted with a nationally representative sample of Head Start programs and families. The sample included…

  5. The Impact of Head Start on Children, Families and Communities. Final Report of the Head Start Evaluation, Synthesis and Utilization Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKey, Ruth Hubbell; And Others

    Including all Head Start research (both published and unpublished) and using, when possible, the statistical technique of meta-analysis, this final report of the Head Start Evaluation, Synthesis, and Utilization Project presents findings on the impact of Head Start on children's cognitive and socioemotional development, on child health and health…

  6. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

  7. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River

  8. Audiovisual Head Orientation Estimation with Particle Filtering in Multisensor Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Hernando

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a multimodal approach to head pose estimation of individuals in environments equipped with multiple cameras and microphones, such as SmartRooms or automatic video conferencing. Determining the individuals head orientation is the basis for many forms of more sophisticated interactions between humans and technical devices and can also be used for automatic sensor selection (camera, microphone in communications or video surveillance systems. The use of particle filters as a unified framework for the estimation of the head orientation for both monomodal and multimodal cases is proposed. In video, we estimate head orientation from color information by exploiting spatial redundancy among cameras. Audio information is processed to estimate the direction of the voice produced by a speaker making use of the directivity characteristics of the head radiation pattern. Furthermore, two different particle filter multimodal information fusion schemes for combining the audio and video streams are analyzed in terms of accuracy and robustness. In the first one, fusion is performed at a decision level by combining each monomodal head pose estimation, while the second one uses a joint estimation system combining information at data level. Experimental results conducted over the CLEAR 2006 evaluation database are reported and the comparison of the proposed multimodal head pose estimation algorithms with the reference monomodal approaches proves the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  9. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miles, J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Zammit, D. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Loomis, D. [Great Lakes Wind Network, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  10. The Security Impact of Oil Nationalization: Alternate Futures Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Johnston

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the security impact of oil nationalization, develops and analyzes four energy security scenarios, and suggests options to reduce the potential negative impact of oil nationalization. In addition to the use of oil as a weapon, nationalization of oil can also lead to competition for scarce resources among states, facilitate the funding of terrorists or insurgents, contribute to destabilizing regional arms races, influence intra-state conflict, and sustain antagonistic political agendas.

  11. Assessing women's lacrosse head impacts using finite element modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J Michio; Hoshizaki, T Blaine; Gilchrist, Michael D

    2018-04-01

    Recently studies have assessed the ability of helmets to reduce peak linear and rotational acceleration for women's lacrosse head impacts. However, such measures have had low correlation with injury. Maximum principal strain interprets loading curves which provide better injury prediction than peak linear and rotational acceleration, especially in compliant situations which create low magnitude accelerations but long impact durations. The purpose of this study was to assess head and helmet impacts in women's lacrosse using finite element modelling. Linear and rotational acceleration loading curves from women's lacrosse impacts to a helmeted and an unhelmeted Hybrid III headform were input into the University College Dublin Brain Trauma Model. The finite element model was used to calculate maximum principal strain in the cerebrum. The results demonstrated for unhelmeted impacts, falls and ball impacts produce higher maximum principal strain values than stick and shoulder collisions. The strain values for falls and ball impacts were found to be within the range of concussion and traumatic brain injury. The results also showed that men's lacrosse helmets reduced maximum principal strain for follow-through slashing, falls and ball impacts. These findings are novel and demonstrate that for high risk events, maximum principal strain can be reduced by implementing the use of helmets if the rules of the sport do not effectively manage such situations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  13. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  14. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  15. Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Liu, Leilei; Tian, Liying; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

    2014-02-01

    Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat-growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post-heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  17. Influence of impact speed on head and brain injury outcome in vulnerable road user impacts to the car hood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredriksson, Rikard; Zhang, Liying; Boström, Ola; Yang, King

    2007-10-01

    EuroNCAP and regulations in Europe and Japan evaluate the pedestrian protection performance of cars. The test methods are similar and they all have requirements for the passive protection of the hood area at a pedestrian to car impact speed of 40 km/h. In Europe, a proposal for a second phase of the regulation mandates a brake-assist system along with passive requirements. The system assists the driver in optimizing the braking performance during panic braking, resulting in activation only when the driver brakes sufficiently. In a European study this was estimated to occur in about 50% of pedestrian accidents. A future system for brake assistance will likely include automatic braking, in response to a pre-crash sensor, to avoid or mitigate injuries of vulnerable road users. An important question is whether these systems will provide sufficient protection, or if a parallel, passive pedestrian protection system will be necessary. This study investigated the influence of impact speed on head and brain injury risk, in impacts to the carhood. One car model was chosen and a rigid adjustable plate was mounted under the hood. Free-flying headform impacts were carried out at 20 and 30 km/h head impact velocities at different under-hood distances, 20 to 100 mm; and were compared to earlier tests at 40 km/h. The EEVC WG17 adult pedestrian headform was used for non-rotating tests and a Hybrid III adult 50th percentile head was used for rotational tests where linear and rotational acceleration was measured. Data from the rotational tests was used as input to a validated finite element model of the human head, the Wayne State University Head Injury Model (WSUHIM). The model was utilized to assess brain injury risk and potential injury mechanism in a pedestrian-hood impact. Although this study showed that it was not necessarily true that a lower HIC value reduced the risk for brain injury, it appeared, for the tested car model, under-hood distances of 60 mm in 20 km/h and 80 mm

  18. Heading and head injuries in soccer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkendall, D T; Jordan, S E; Garrett, W E

    2001-01-01

    In the world of sports, soccer is unique because of the purposeful use of the unprotected head for controlling and advancing the ball. This skill obviously places the player at risk of head injury and the game does carry some risk. Head injury can be a result of contact of the head with another head (or other body parts), ground, goal post, other unknown objects or even the ball. Such impacts can lead to contusions, fractures, eye injuries, concussions or even, in rare cases, death. Coaches, players, parents and physicians are rightly concerned about the risk of head injury in soccer. Current research shows that selected soccer players have some degree of cognitive dysfunction. It is important to determine the reasons behind such deficits. Purposeful heading has been blamed, but a closer look at the studies that focus on heading has revealed methodological concerns that question the validity of blaming purposeful heading of the ball. The player's history and age (did they play when the ball was leather and could absorb significant amounts of water), alcohol intake, drug intake, learning disabilities, concussion definition and control group use/composition are all factors that cloud the ability to blame purposeful heading. What does seem clear is that a player's history of concussive episodes is a more likely explanation for cognitive deficits. While it is likely that the subconcussive impact of purposeful heading is a doubtful factor in the noted deficits, it is unknown whether multiple subconcussive impacts might have some lingering effects. In addition, it is unknown whether the noted deficits have any affect on daily life. Proper instruction in the technique is critical because if the ball contacts an unprepared head (as in accidental head-ball contacts), the potential for serious injury is possible. To further our understanding of the relationship of heading, head injury and cognitive deficits, we need to: learn more about the actual impact of a ball on the

  19. Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2011-12-01

    U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e

  20. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  2. Head Start’s Impact is Contingent on Alternative Type of Care in Comparison Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

    2014-01-01

    Using data (n = 3,790 with 2,119 in the 3-year-old cohort and 1,671 in the 4-year-old cohort) from 353 Head Start centers in the Head Start Impact Study, the only large-scale randomized experiment in Head Start history, this paper examined the impact of Head Start on children’s cognitive and parent-reported social-behavioral outcomes through first grade contingent on the child care arrangements used by children who were randomly assigned to the control group (i.e., parental care, relative/non-relative care, another Head Start program, or other center-based care). A principal score matching approach was adopted to identify children assigned to Head Start who were similar to children in the control group with a specific care arrangement. Overall, the results showed that the effects of Head Start varied substantially contingent on the alternative child care arrangements. Compared to children in parental care and relative/non-relative care, Head Start participants generally had better cognitive and parent-reported behavioral development, with some benefits of Head Start persisting through first grade; in contrast, few differences were found between Head Start and other center-based care. The results have implications regarding the children for whom Head Start is most beneficial as well as how well Head Start compares to other center-based programs. PMID:25329552

  3. The impact of gravity during head-up tilt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottesen, Johnny T.; Olufsen, Mette; Smith, Brittany

    2011-01-01

    The impact of gravity during head-up tilt, a test often used in the clinic to diagnose patients who suffer from dizziness or frequent episodes of syncope, is not well described. This study uses mathematical modeling to analyze experimental blood pressure data measured at the level of the aorta an...

  4. Description of the default climate scenario for impact projects in NRP-II

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij W; Viner D; NOP

    2001-01-01

    The Dutch National Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP) is funding strategic research on climate change. One of the central research themes focuses on potential impacts of climate change. In general, results of impact projects may differ markedly, depending on input of scenario data for

  5. The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakkes, J.; Potting, J.; Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P.; Masui, T.; Rana, A.; Nellemann, C.; Rothman, D.

    2004-01-01

    The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?

  6. Head Impact Exposure in Youth Football: Comparing Age- and Weight-Based Levels of Play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Mireille E; Urban, Jillian E; Miller, Logan E; Jones, Derek A; Espeland, Mark A; Davenport, Elizabeth M; Whitlow, Christopher T; Maldjian, Joseph A; Stitzel, Joel D

    2017-06-01

    Approximately 5,000,000 athletes play organized football in the United States, and youth athletes constitute the largest proportion with ∼3,500,000 participants. Investigations of head impact exposure (HIE) in youth football have been limited in size and duration. The objective of this study was to evaluate HIE of athletes participating in three age- and weight-based levels of play within a single youth football organization over four seasons. Head impact data were collected using the Head Impact Telemetry (HIT) System. Mixed effects linear models were fitted, and Wald tests were used to assess differences in head accelerations and number of impacts among levels and session type (competitions vs. practices). The three levels studied were levels A (n = 39, age = 10.8 ± 0.7 years, weight = 97.5 ± 11.8 lb), B (n = 48, age = 11.9 ± 0.5 years, weight = 106.1 ± 13.8 lb), and C (n = 32, age = 13.0 ± 0.5 years, weight = 126.5 ± 18.6 lb). A total of 40,538 head impacts were measured. The median/95th percentile linear head acceleration for levels A, B, and C was 19.8/49.4g, 20.6/51.0g, and 22.0/57.9g, respectively. Level C had significantly greater mean linear acceleration than both levels A (p = 0.005) and B (p = 0.02). There were a significantly greater number of impacts per player in a competition than in a practice session for all levels (A, p = 0.0005, B, p = 0.0019, and C, p football and are an important step in making evidence-based decisions to reduce HIE.

  7. Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Rose, Adam; Sue Wing, Ian; Wei, Dan

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple

  8. Accessibility measures: review and applications. Evaluation of accessibility impacts of land-use transportation scenarios, and related social and economic impact

    OpenAIRE

    Geurs KT; Ritsema van Eck JR; Universiteit Utrecht-URU; LAE

    2001-01-01

    This report describes an extensive literature study and three case studies aimed at reviewing accessibility measures for their ability to evaluate the accessibility impacts of national land-use and transport scenarios, and related social and economic impacts. Several activity- and utility-based accessibility measures were computed to analyse job accessibility by car and public transport in the Netherlands for: (1) the (base) year 1995, (2) a Trend, or business-as-usual, scenario, representing...

  9. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Geary

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

  10. Laboratory Evaluation of Low-Cost Wearable Sensors for Measuring Head Impacts in Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyson, Abigail M; Duma, Stefan M; Rowson, Steven

    2018-04-03

    Advances in low-cost wearable head impact sensor technology provide potential benefits regarding sports safety for both consumers and researchers. However, previous laboratory evaluations are not directly comparable and don't incorporate test conditions representative of unhelmeted impacts. This study addresses those limitations. The xPatch by X2 Biosystems and the SIM-G by Triax Technologies were placed on a NOCSAE headform with a Hybrid III neck which underwent impacts tests using a pendulum. Impact conditions included helmeted, padded impactor to bare head, and rigid impactor to bare head to represent long and short-duration impacts seen in helmeted and unhelmeted sports. The wearable sensors were evaluated on their kinematic accuracy by comparing results to reference sensors located at the headform center of gravity. Statistical tests for equivalence were performed on the slope of the linear regression between wearable sensors and reference. The xPatch gave equivalent measurements to the reference in select longer-duration impacts whereas the SIM-G had large variance leading to no equivalence. For the short-duration impacts, both wearable sensors underpredicted the reference. This error can be improved with increases in sampling rate from 1 to 1.5 kHz. Follow-up evaluations should be performed on the field to identify error in vivo. (197/200).

  11. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  12. The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakkes, J.; Potting, J. (eds.) [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Henrichs, T. [Center for Environmental Systems Research CESR, University of Kassel, Kassel (Germany); Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P. [Stockholm Environment Institute SEI, Boston, MA (United States); Masui, T.; Rana, A. [National Institute for Environmental Studies NIES, Ibaraki (Japan); Nellemann, C. [United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, GRID Global and Regional Integrated Data centres Arendal, Lillehammer (Norway); Rothman, D. [International Centre for Integrative Studies ICIS, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2004-07-01

    The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?.

  13. Head injury predictors in sports trauma--a state-of-the-art review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Fábio A O; de Sousa, Ricardo J Alves

    2015-08-01

    Head injuries occur in a great variety of sports. Many of these have been associated with neurological injuries, affecting the central nervous system. Some examples are motorsports, cycling, skiing, horse riding, mountaineering and most contact sports such as football, ice and field hockey, soccer, lacrosse, etc. The outcome of head impacts in these sports can be very severe. The worst-case scenarios of permanent disability or even death are possibilities. Over recent decades, many In recent decades, a great number of head injury criteria and respective thresholds have been proposed. However, the available information is much dispersed and a consensus has still not been achieved regarding the best injury criteria or even their thresholds. This review paper gives a thorough overview of the work carried out by the scientific community in the field of impact biomechanics about head injuries sustained during sports activity. The main goal is to review the head injury criteria, as well as their thresholds. Several are reviewed, from the predictors based on kinematics to the ones based on human tissue thresholds. In this work, we start to briefly introduce the head injuries and their mechanisms commonly seen as a result of head trauma in sports. Then, we present and summarize the head injury criteria and their respective thresholds. © IMechE 2015.

  14. Cross-sectional evaluation of visuomotor tracking performance following subconcussive head impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brokaw, E B; Fine, M S; Kindschi, K E; Santago Ii, A C; Lum, P S; Higgins, M

    2018-01-01

    Repeated mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) has been associated with increased risk of degenerative neurological disorders. While the effects of mTBI and repeated injury are known, studies have only recently started examining repeated subconcussive impacts, impacts that do not result in a clinically diagnosed mTBI. In these studies, repeated subconcussive impacts have been connected to cognitive performance and brain imaging changes. Recent research suggests that performance on a visuomotor tracking (VMT) task may help improve the identification of mTBI. The goal of this study was to investigate if VMT performance is sensitive to the cumulative effect of repeated subconcussive head impacts in collegiate men's lacrosse players. A cross-sectional, prospective study was completed with eleven collegiate men's lacrosse players. Participants wore helmet-mounted sensors and completed VMT and reaction time assessments. The relationship between cumulative impact metrics and VMT metrics were investigated. In this study, VMT performance correlated with repeated subconcussive head impacts; individuals approached clinically diagnosed mTBI-like performance as the cumulative rotational velocity they experienced increased. This suggests that repeated subconcussive impacts can result in measurable impairments and indicates that visuomotor tracking performance may be a useful tool for monitoring the effects of repeated subconcussive impacts.

  15. Reducing the environmental impact of concrete and asphalt: a scenario approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blankendaal, T.; Schuur, Peter; Voordijk, Johannes T.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, measures are evaluated to reduce the environmental impact of concrete and asphalt. Several composition scenarios are designed for these materials and are evaluated based on their environmental performance using life-cycle assessment (LCA). The effect of low-energy production

  16. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  17. The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cariolle, D.

    1999-01-01

    This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

  18. Effect of ice surface size on collision rates and head impacts at the World Junior Hockey Championships, 2002 to 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wennberg, Richard

    2005-03-01

    To determine if collision rates and head impacts in elite junior hockey differed between games played on the small North American ice surface (85 ft wide), an intermediate-size Finnish ice surface (94 ft wide), and the large standard international ice surface (100 ft wide). Videotape analysis of all games involving Team Canada from the 2002 (large ice, Czech Republic), 2003 (small ice, Canada), and 2004 (intermediate ice, Finland) World Junior Championships. All collisions were counted and separated into various categories (volitional player/player bodychecks, into boards or open ice, plus accidental/incidental player/boards, player/ice, head/stick, head/puck). Further subdivisions included collisions involving the head directly or indirectly and notably severe head impacts. Small, intermediate, and large ice surface mean collisions/game, respectively, were 295, 258, 222, total collisions; 251, 220, 181, volitional bodychecks; 126, 115, 88, into boards; 125, 106, 93, open ice; 71, 52, 44, total head; 44, 36, 30, indirect head; 26, 16, 13, direct head; and 1.3, 0.5, 0.3, severe head (P < 0.05 for small-intermediate ice and intermediate-large ice differences in total collisions; P < 0.005 for small-large ice difference; P < 0.05 for small-intermediate ice differences in head impacts; P < 0.01 for small-large ice differences in total and severe head impacts). There is a significant inverse correlation between ice size and collision rates in elite hockey, including direct, indirect, and severe head impacts. These findings suggest that uniform usage of the larger international rinks could reduce the risk of injury, and specifically, concussions in elite hockey by decreasing the occurrence of collisions and head impacts.

  19. Climate change in high definition : scenarios for impacts and adaptation research : conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This conference provided a forum to review information and tools to conduct climate change impact and adaptation research and assessments. The research community, policy advisors and resource managers reviewed the latest advancements in global and regional climate modeling, climate scenarios, downscaling tools and application of scenarios for decision-making. The new Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCSN) website was also launched at this meeting, which also provided training in Environment Canada's new statistical downscaling tool developed in collaboration with the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE). New features of the CCSN were presented along with examples of how information from the network can be applied in specific cases, including assessments of impacts in areas such as human health and water resources. A training session on downscaling with the newly developed Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) tool was also provided. The conference featured 19 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  20. Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  1. Analysis of impact noise induced by hitting of titanium head golf driver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young Ho; Kim, Young Chul; Lee, Jun Hee; An, Yong-Hwi; Park, Kyung Tae; Kang, Kyung Min; Kang, Yeon June

    2014-11-01

    The hitting of titanium head golf driver against golf ball creates a short duration, high frequency impact noise. We analyzed the spectra of these impact noises and evaluated the auditory hazards from exposure to the noises. Noises made by 10 titanium head golf drivers with five maximum hits were collected, and the spectra of the pure impact sounds were studied using a noise analysis program. The noise was measured at 1.7 m (position A) and 3.4 m (position B) from the hitting point in front of the hitter and at 3.4 m (position C) behind the hitting point. Average time duration was measured and auditory risk units (ARUs) at position A were calculated using the Auditory Hazard Assessment Algorithm for Humans. The average peak levels at position A were 119.9 dBA at the sound pressure level (SPL) peak and 100.0 dBA at the overall octave level. The average peak levels (SPL and overall octave level) at position B were 111.6 and 96.5 dBA, respectively, and at position C were 111.5 and 96.7 dBA, respectively. The average time duration and ARUs measured at position A were 120.6 ms and 194.9 units, respectively. Although impact noises made by titanium head golf drivers showed relatively low ARUs, individuals enjoying golf frequently may be susceptible to hearing loss due to the repeated exposure of this intense impact noise with short duration and high frequency. Unprotected exposure to impact noises should be limited to prevent cochleovestibular disorders.

  2. Correlation of Head Impacts to Change in Balance Error Scoring System Scores in Division I Men's Lacrosse Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyashita, Theresa L; Diakogeorgiou, Eleni; Marrie, Kaitlyn

    Investigation into the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts has yielded various results in the literature, with many supporting a link to neurological deficits. Little research has been conducted on men's lacrosse and associated balance deficits from head impacts. (1) Athletes will commit more errors on the postseason Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) test. (2) There will be a positive correlation to change in BESS scores and head impact exposure data. Prospective longitudinal study. Level 3. Thirty-four Division I men's lacrosse players (age, 19.59 ± 1.42 years) wore helmets instrumented with a sensor to collect head impact exposure data over the course of a competitive season. Players completed a BESS test at the start and end of the competitive season. The number of errors from pre- to postseason increased during the double-leg stance on foam ( P impacts sustained over the course of 1 lacrosse season, as measured by average linear acceleration, head injury criteria, and Gadd Severity Index scores. If there is microtrauma to the vestibular system due to repetitive subconcussive impacts, only an assessment that highly stresses the vestibular system may be able to detect these changes. Cumulative subconcussive impacts may result in neurocognitive dysfunction, including balance deficits, which are associated with an increased risk for injury. The development of a strategy to reduce total number of head impacts may curb the associated sequelae. Incorporation of a modified BESS test, firm surface only, may not be recommended as it may not detect changes due to repetitive impacts over the course of a competitive season.

  3. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  4. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

    2013-01-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  5. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

    2013-07-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  6. Cleveland Clinic intelligent mouthguard: a new technology to accurately measure head impact in athletes and soldiers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Adam; Samorezov, Sergey

    2013-05-01

    Nearly 2 million Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBI) occur in the U.S. each year, with societal costs approaching $60 billion. Including mild TBI and concussion, TBI's are prevalent in soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as in domestic athletes. Long-term risks of single and cumulative head impact dosage may present in the form of post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, suicide, Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE), dementia, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. Quantifying head impact dosage and understanding associated risk factors for the development of long-term sequelae is critical toward developing guidelines for TBI exposure and post-exposure management. The current knowledge gap between head impact exposure and clinical outcomes limits the understanding of underlying TBI mechanisms, including effective treatment protocols and prevention methods for soldiers and athletes. In order to begin addressing this knowledge gap, Cleveland Clinic is developing the "Intelligent Mouthguard" head impact dosimeter. Current testing indicates the Intelligent Mouthguard can quantify linear acceleration with 3% error and angular acceleration with 17% error during impacts ranging from 10g to 174g and 850rad/s2 to 10000rad/s2, respectively. Correlation was high (R2 > 0.99, R2 = 0.98, respectively). Near-term development will be geared towards quantifying head impact dosages in vitro, longitudinally in athletes and to test new sensors for possible improved accuracy and reduced bias. Long-term, the IMG may be useful to soldiers to be paired with neurocognitive clinical data quantifying resultant TBI functional deficits.

  7. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  8. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-08-01

    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  9. Economic impact of a head and neck oncologic surgeon: the case mix index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalisi, Scharukh; Sanan, Akshay; Mcdonough, Katie; Hussein, Khalil; Platt, Michael; Truong, Minh Tam; Couch, Marion; Burkey, Brian B

    2014-10-01

    Head and neck oncologic surgery is a time-consuming specialty that requires extensive resources and manpower. Case mix index (CMI) is used in evaluating the complexity and economic impact of surgeons. Head and neck oncologic surgeons generate significant revenue for hospitals, yet compensation is relatively low. Retrospective review of a tertiary hospital's case mix data for 605 otolaryngology admissions from 2009 to 2011 was performed. CMI comparison for head and neck oncologic surgeons versus general otolaryngology was performed. In an otolaryngology department of 9 surgeons; there was a significant difference (p 1) favoring head and neck oncologic surgeons. Head and neck oncologic surgeons increase the CMI for hospitals and ultimately influence the hospital's reimbursement. There is a need for increased collaboration between hospitals and departments in fostering and furthering their head and neck surgical oncology programs by taking CMI into consideration. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. The Impact of Emotion on Negotiation Behaviour during a Realistic Training Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-01

    Sorce, Emde, & Svejda; cited in van Kleef, et al., 2004a), and induce reciprocal emotions in others ( Keltner & Haidt, 1999; cited in van Kleef, et al...DRDC Toronto CR 2007-166 THE IMPACT OF EMOTION ON NEGOTIATION BEHAVIOUR DURING A REALISTIC TRAINING SCENARIO by: Michael H. Thomson...made to dig what look like their own graves. This experiment explored the impact of emotion on military trainees’ negotiation behaviour and

  11. Quantifying Variation in Head Start Effects on Young Children's Cognitive and Socio-Emotional Skills Using Data from the National Head Start Impact Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, Howard S.; Weiland, Christina

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses data from the Head Start Impact Study (HSIS), a nationally representative multisite randomized trial, to quantify variation in effects of Head Start during 2002-2003 on children's cognitive and socio-emotional outcomes relative to the effects of other local alternatives, including parent care. We find that (1) treatment and control…

  12. The Impact of Head Start on Children, Families and Communities. Final Report of the Head Start Evaluation, Synthesis and Utilization Project. Executive Summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKey, Ruth Hubbell; And Others

    This report summarizes the results of a study on the impact of Head Start on children's cognitive and socioemotional development, on child health and health institutions in the community, on enrollees' families, and on communities where Head Start programs operate. After discussing the background and methodology of the study, the report concludes…

  13. Air quality impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Texas: evaluating three battery charging scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, Tammy M; King, Carey W; Webber, Michael E; Allen, David T

    2011-01-01

    The air quality impacts of replacing approximately 20% of the gasoline-powered light duty vehicle miles traveled (VMT) with electric VMT by the year 2018 were examined for four major cities in Texas: Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) charging was assumed to occur on the electric grid controlled by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and three charging scenarios were examined: nighttime charging, charging to maximize battery life, and charging to maximize driver convenience. A subset of electricity generating units (EGUs) in Texas that were found to contribute the majority of the electricity generation needed to charge PHEVs at the times of day associated with each scenario was modeled using a regional photochemical model (CAMx). The net impacts of the PHEVs on the emissions of precursors to the formation of ozone included an increase in NO x emissions from EGUs during times of day when the vehicle is charging, and a decrease in NO x from mobile emissions. The changes in maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations and average exposure potential at twelve air quality monitors in Texas were predicted on the basis of these changes in NO x emissions. For all scenarios, at all monitors, the impact of changes in vehicular emissions, rather than EGU emissions, dominated the ozone impact. In general, PHEVs lead to an increase in ozone during nighttime hours (due to decreased scavenging from both vehicles and EGU stacks) and a decrease in ozone during daytime hours. A few monitors showed a larger increase in ozone for the convenience charging scenario versus the other two scenarios. Additionally, cumulative ozone exposure results indicate that nighttime charging is most likely to reduce a measure of ozone exposure potential versus the other two scenarios.

  14. Accessibility measures: review and applications. Evaluation of accessibility impacts of land-use transportation scenarios, and related social and economic impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurs KT; Ritsema van Eck JR; Universiteit Utrecht-URU; LAE

    2001-01-01

    This report describes an extensive literature study and three case studies aimed at reviewing accessibility measures for their ability to evaluate the accessibility impacts of national land-use and transport scenarios, and related social and economic impacts. Several activity- and utility-based

  15. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. The impacts of climate change on a Norwegian high-head hydropower plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chernet, Haregewoin Haile; Alfredsen, Knut; Killintveit, Aanund

    2010-07-01

    Full text: Norway relies on hydropower for 99 percent of the electricity production and thus Hydropower is important for Norway today and in the future energy system. The work presented in this paper shows how a high-head hydropower system in Norway will be affected in the future climate. The Aurland Hydropower system, operated by E-Co Vannkraft, Norway is the test case for the study. The Aurland hydropower system has many reservoirs and transfer systems and is considered to be one of the complex systems in Norway, but also a typical example of a Norwegian high head system. The nMAG Hydropower simulation model, which has been developed at the Norwegian Hydro technical Laboratory, is used to simulate the hydropower system. Historical and future inflow series were transposed from the neighbouring catchment Flaamselvi using scaling based on area and specific runoff, as there is no discharge station in Aurland catchment with long unregulated inflow series to set up the model and to be used for developing future climate scenarios. To generate the future inflow series for the analysis, the HBV hydrological model is calibrated for the Flaamselvi catchment. The model is then used to generate future inflow series of using the Hadley GCM (HADAm3) and A2, B2 climate scenarios. The operation of the hydropower system is then simulated for the period 2071 -2100 to see how future power production is affected by the change in the inflow conditions. The HBV model is also used to see how snow accumulation will be affected in the future as snow melt is important for Norwegian reservoir and hydropower systems. The Hydrologic scenarios under climate change imply an average increase in runoff for the system. Snow accumulation will decrease with sooner snow melt and more winter precipitation as rain. The hydropower simulation results show that associated with the increase in runoff there is an increase in energy generation with 10-20% under the current reservoir operation strategies

  17. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  18. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  19. Persistent, Long-term Cerebral White Matter Changes after Sports-Related Repetitive Head Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazarian, Jeffrey J.; Zhu, Tong; Zhong, Jianhui; Janigro, Damir; Rozen, Eric; Roberts, Andrew; Javien, Hannah; Merchant-Borna, Kian; Abar, Beau; Blackman, Eric G.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Repetitive head impacts (RHI) sustained in contact sports are thought to be necessary for the long-term development of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Our objectives were to: 1) characterize the magnitude and persistence of RHI-induced white matter (WM) changes; 2) determine their relationship to kinematic measures of RHI; and 3) explore their clinical relevance. Methods Prospective, observational study of 10 Division III college football players and 5 non-athlete controls during the 2011-12 season. All subjects underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), physiologic, cognitive, and balance testing at pre-season (Time 1), post-season (Time 2), and after 6-months of no-contact rest (Time 3). Head impact measures were recorded using helmet-mounted accelerometers. The percentage of whole-brain WM voxels with significant changes in fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) from Time 1 to 2, and Time 1 to 3 was determined for each subject and correlated to head impacts and clinical measures. Results Total head impacts for the season ranged from 431–1,850. No athlete suffered a clinically evident concussion. Compared to controls, athletes experienced greater changes in FA and MD from Time 1 to 2 as well as Time 1 to 3; most differences at Time 2 persisted to Time 3. Among athletes, the percentage of voxels with decreased FA from Time 1 to 2 was positively correlated with several helmet impact measures. The persistence of WM changes from Time 1 to 3 was also associated with changes in serum ApoA1 and S100B autoantibodies. WM changes were not consistently associated with cognition or balance. Conclusions A single football season of RHIs without clinically-evident concussion resulted in WM changes that correlated with multiple helmet impact measures and persisted following 6 months of no-contact rest. This lack of WM recovery could potentially contribute to cumulative WM changes with subsequent RHI exposures. PMID:24740265

  20. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  1. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

    2013-01-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  2. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  3. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  4. Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

  5. Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Zachary Y; Littleton, Ashley C; Cox, Leah M; DeFreese, J D; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C; Schmidt, Julianne D; Marshall, Stephen W; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

    2015-07-15

    Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information related to primary position played and participation in games and practice contacts during the pre-season, regular season, and post-season of each year of their high school, college, and professional football careers. Spring football for college was also included. We calculated contact exposure estimates for 64 former football players (n = 32 college football only, n = 32 professional and college football). The head impact exposure estimate (HIEE) discriminated between individuals who stopped after college football, and individuals who played professional football (p < 0.001). The HIEE measure was independent of concussion history (p = 0.82). Estimating total hours of contact exposure may allow for the detection of differences between individuals with variation in subconcussive impacts, regardless of concussion history. This measure is valuable for the surveillance of subconcussive impacts and their associated potential negative effects.

  6. Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

    2018-01-01

    As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

  7. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  8. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S; Keller, J [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  9. Similar head impact acceleration measured using instrumented ear patches in a junior rugby union team during matches in comparison with other sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Doug A; Hume, Patria A; Gissane, Conor; Clark, Trevor N

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE Direct impact with the head and the inertial loading of the head have been postulated as major mechanisms of head-related injuries, such as concussion. METHODS This descriptive observational study was conducted to quantify the head impact acceleration characteristics in under-9-year-old junior rugby union players in New Zealand. The impact magnitude, frequency, and location were collected with a wireless head impact sensor that was worn by 14 junior rugby players who participated in 4 matches. RESULTS A total of 721 impacts > 10g were recorded. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) number of impacts per player was 46 (IQR 37-58), resulting in 10 (IQR 4-18) impacts to the head per player per match. The median impact magnitudes recorded were 15g (IQR 12g-21g) for linear acceleration and 2296 rad/sec(2) (IQR 1352-4152 rad/sec(2)) for rotational acceleration. CONCLUSIONS There were 121 impacts (16.8%) above the rotational injury risk limit and 1 (0.1%) impact above the linear injury risk limit. The acceleration magnitude and number of head impacts in junior rugby union players were higher than those previously reported in similar age-group sports participants. The median linear acceleration for the under-9-year-old rugby players were similar to 7- to 8-year-old American football players, but lower than 9- to 12-year-old youth American football players. The median rotational accelerations measured were higher than the median and 95th percentiles in youth, high school, and collegiate American football players.

  10. The influence of headform orientation and flooring systems on impact dynamics during simulated fall-related head impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Alexander D; Laing, Andrew C

    2012-10-01

    Novel compliant flooring systems are a promising approach for reducing fall-related injuries in seniors, as they may provide up to 50% attenuation in peak force during simulated hip impacts while eliciting only minimal influences on balance. This study aimed to determine the protective capacity of novel compliant floors during simulated 'high severity' head impacts compared to common flooring systems. A headform was impacted onto a common Commercial-Carpet at 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 m/s in front, back, and side orientations using a mechanical drop tower. Peak impact force applied to the headform (F(max)), peak linear acceleration of the headform (g(max)) and Head Injury Criterion (HIC) were determined. For the 3.5 m/s trials, backwards-oriented impacts were associated with the highest F(max) and HIC values (pfloors (Resilient Rubber, Residential-Loop Carpet, Berber Carpet) and six novel compliant floors at each impact velocity. ANOVAs indicated that flooring type was associated with all parameters at each impact velocity (pfloors (pfloors can substantially reduce the forces and accelerations applied to a headform compared to common floors including carpet and resilient rubber. In combination with reports of minimal balance impairments, these findings support the promise of novel compliant floors as a biomechanically effective strategy for reducing fall-related injuries including traumatic brain injuries and skull fractures. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Instrumented mouthguard acceleration analyses for head impacts in amateur rugby union players over a season of matches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Doug; Hume, Patria A; Brughelli, Matt; Gissane, Conor

    2015-03-01

    Direct impacts with the head (linear acceleration or pressure) and inertial loading of the head (rotational acceleration or strain) have been postulated as the 2 major mechanisms of head-related injuries such as concussion. Although data are accumulating for soccer and American football, there are no published data for nonhelmeted collision sports such as rugby union. To quantify head impacts via instrumented mouthguard acceleration analyses for rugby union players over a season of matches. Descriptive epidemiology study. Data on impact magnitude and frequency were collected with molded instrumented mouthguards worn by 38 premier amateur senior rugby players participating in the 2013 domestic season of matches. A total of 20,687 impacts >10g (range, 10.0-164.9g) were recorded over the duration of the study. The mean ± SD number of impacts per player over the duration of the season of matches was 564 ± 618, resulting in a mean ± SD of 95 ± 133 impacts to the head per player, per match over the duration of the season of matches. The impact magnitudes for linear accelerations were skewed to the lower values (Sp = 3.7 ± 0.02; P rugby union players over a season of matches, measured via instrumented mouthguard accelerations, were higher than for most sports previously reported. Mean linear acceleration measured over a season of matches was similar to the mean linear accelerations previously reported for youth, high school, and collegiate American football players but lower than that for female youth soccer players. Mean rotational acceleration measured over a season of matches was similar to mean rotational accelerations for youth, high school, and collegiate American football players but less than those for female youth soccer players, concussed American collegiate players, collegiate American football players, and professional American football players. © 2014 The Author(s).

  12. Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

    2014-12-01

    We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

  13. Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

  14. Changes in parents' spanking and reading as mechanisms for Head Start impacts on children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershoff, Elizabeth T; Ansari, Arya; Purtell, Kelly M; Sexton, Holly R

    2016-06-01

    This study examined whether Head Start, the nation's main two-generation program for low-income families, benefits children in part through positive changes in parents' use of spanking and reading to children. Data were drawn from the 3-year-old cohort of the national evaluation of the Head Start program known as the Head Start Impact Study (N = 2,063). Results indicated that Head Start had small, indirect effects on children's spelling ability at Age 4 and their aggression at Age 4 through an increase in parents' reading to their children. Taken together, the results suggest that parents play a role in sustaining positive benefits of the Head Start program for children's behavior and literacy skills, one that could be enhanced with a greater emphasis on parent involvement and education. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

    2015-03-15

    Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Setting Up Simulations of Failure Scenarios for a Crab Cavity in the Nominal LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Yee, B

    2010-01-01

    The crab cavity (CC) represents a possible solution for the problem of the reduction of the luminosity due to a crossing angle. The CC apply a transversal kick on the beam particles that varies with the longitudinal position along the bunch in order to produce an effective head-head collision and to increase the geometry luminosity. For that reason the BE-ABP group at CERN has been performing studies for the implementation of the CC in the LHC. Because machine protection is a critical element of LHC operation, it is essential to study the failure scenarios of the superconducting crab cavity and the possible resulting damage impact and well as to find possible mitigation measures. For this purpose we set up simulation tools to model CC failures in the nominal LHC.

  17. Methods That Examine the Extent to Which the Quality of Children's Experiences in Elementary School Moderate the Long-Term Impacts of Head Start

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mashburn, Andrew J.; Downer, Jason T.

    2013-01-01

    The goals of the Head Start Impact Study (HSIS) are to: (1) determine the impacts of Head Start on children's school readiness and parental practices that support children's development; and (2) to determine under what circumstances Head Start achieves its greatest impacts and for which children (US Department of Health and Human Services, 2010).…

  18. Role of awareness in head-neck acceleration in low velocity rear-end impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S; Narayan, Y; Amell, T

    2000-03-01

    Fourteen normal healthy seated and restrained young adults were delivered rear-end impacts of four intensities of acceleration. The chair was delivered a regulated and controlled pneumatic blow using a 30 cm cylinder to cause an acceleration of 0.5, 0.9, 1.1 and 1.4g. The accelerated chair was stopped suddenly by impacting the stopper at the other end of the 2 m long friction reduced track. In one set of trials, subjects were informed about the impending impact and in the other they were blindfolded and provided with loud auditory input to eliminate cues of the impact. The accelerations of the chair, shoulder and head of the participating subjects were measured triaxially and compared between levels of acceleration and expectation. The multiple analyses of variance revealed that the peak acceleration was significantly affected by the gender (P < 0.01), intensity of impact (P < 0.001), and expectation (P < 0.0001). The accelerations were significantly different in different axes (P < 0.001). A significant two-way interaction between acceleration and expectation (P < 0.03), and expectation and axes of acceleration (P < 0.02) would imply that awareness of the impending impact serves to significantly reduce the level of accelerations of head and neck.

  19. Elemental Water Impact Test: Phase 3 Plunge Depth of a 36-Inch Aluminum Tank Head

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilakos, Gregory J.

    2014-01-01

    Spacecraft are being designed based on LS-DYNA water landing simulations. The Elemental Water Impact Test (EWIT) series was undertaken to assess the accuracy of LS-DYNA water impact simulations. Phase 3 featured a composite tank head that was tested at a range of heights to verify the ability to predict structural failure of composites. To support planning for Phase 3, a test series was conducted with an aluminum tank head dropped from heights of 2, 6, 10, and 12 feet to verify that the test article would not impact the bottom of the test pool. This report focuses on the comparisons of the measured plunge depths to LS-DYNA predictions. The results for the tank head model demonstrated the following. 1. LS-DYNA provides accurate predictions for peak accelerations. 2. LS-DYNA consistently under-predicts plunge depth. An allowance of at least 20% should be added to the LS-DYNA predictions. 3. The LS-DYNA predictions for plunge depth are relatively insensitive to the fluid-structure coupling stiffness.

  20. Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

    2017-12-01

    Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

  1. Stakeholder Perceptions of the Impacts of Rural Funding Scenarios on Mountain Landscapes Across Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bayfield, N.; Barancok, P.; Furger, M.; Sebastia, M.T.; Domínguez, G.; Lapka, Miloslav; Cudlínová, Eva; Vescovo, L.; Ganielle, D.; Cernusca, A.; Tappeiner, U.; Drösler, M.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 8 (2008), s. 1368-1382 ISSN 1432-9840 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Landscape perception * funding scenarios Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.376, year: 2008

  2. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  3. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  4. Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-10-01

    The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

  5. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  6. Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

    2015-01-01

    It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

  7. Using Scenario Planning to Evaluate the Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife Populations and Communities in the Florida Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

    2015-04-01

    It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

  8. The effect of motorcycle helmet fit on estimating head impact kinematics from residual liner crush.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonin, Stephanie J; Gardiner, John C; Onar-Thomas, Arzu; Asfour, Shihab S; Siegmund, Gunter P

    2017-09-01

    Proper helmet fit is important for optimizing head protection during an impact, yet many motorcyclists wear helmets that do not properly fit their heads. The goals of this study are i) to quantify how a mismatch in headform size and motorcycle helmet size affects headform peak acceleration and head injury criteria (HIC), and ii) to determine if peak acceleration, HIC, and impact speed can be estimated from the foam liner's maximum residual crush depth or residual crush volume. Shorty-style helmets (4 sizes of a single model) were tested on instrumented headforms (4 sizes) during linear impacts between 2.0 and 10.5m/s to the forehead region. Helmets were CT scanned to quantify residual crush depth and volume. Separate linear regression models were used to quantify how the response variables (peak acceleration (g), HIC, and impact speed (m/s)) were related to the predictor variables (maximum crush depth (mm), crush volume (cm 3 ), and the difference in circumference between the helmet and headform (cm)). Overall, we found that increasingly oversized helmets reduced peak headform acceleration and HIC for a given impact speed for maximum residual crush depths less than 7.9mm and residual crush volume less than 40cm 3 . Below these levels of residual crush, we found that peak headform acceleration, HIC, and impact speed can be estimated from a helmet's residual crush. Above these crush thresholds, large variations in headform kinematics are present, possibly related to densification of the foam liner during the impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Water flux characterization through hydraulic head and temperature data assimilation: Numerical modeling and sandbox experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Lei; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Chen, Cheng; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

    2018-03-01

    Spatial distribution of groundwater recharge/discharge fluxes has an important impact on mass and energy exchanges in shallow streambeds. During the last two decades, extensive studies have been devoted to the quantification of one-dimensional (1-D) vertical exchange fluxes. Nevertheless, few studies were conducted to characterize two-dimensional (2-D) heterogeneous flux fields that commonly exist in real-world cases. In this study, we used an iterative ensemble smoother (IES) to quantify the spatial distribution of 2-D exchange fluxes by assimilating hydraulic head and temperature measurements. Four assimilation scenarios corresponding to different potential field applications were tested. In the first three scenarios, the heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields were first inferred from hydraulic head and/or temperature measurements, and then the flux fields were derived through Darcy's law using the estimated conductivity fields. In the fourth scenario, the flux fields were estimated directly from the temperature measurements, which is more efficient and especially suitable for the situation that a complete knowledge of flow boundary conditions is unavailable. We concluded that, the best estimation could be achieved through jointly assimilating hydraulic head and temperature measurements, and temperature data were superior to the head data when they were used independently. Overall, the IES method provided more robust and accurate vertical flux estimations than those given by the widely used analytical solution-based methods. Furthermore, IES gave reasonable uncertainty estimations, which were unavailable in traditional methods. Since temperature can be accurately monitored with high spatial and temporal resolutions, the coupling of heat tracing techniques and IES provides promising potential in quantifying complex exchange fluxes under field conditions.

  10. Head Start Impact Study

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Nationally representative, longitudinal information from an evaluation where children were randomly assigned to Head Start or community services as usual;direct...

  11. The Impact of Tourism on Curaçao’s Economy: A Scenario Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liselotte Jelsma

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available As of 2010, Curaçao is an autonomous country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The government wants to support tourism development. However, various development strategies are possible. This article presents four scenarios of marketing and investment strategies that will affect the number of tourists from The Netherlands and North America (USA and Canada in different ways. A multiplier model was used to calculate the economic impacts of the four scenarios. By doing so, this article shows how the government’s decision to support particular marketing and investment strategies may have certain outcomes for the number of jobs in Curaçao’s tourism industry.

  12. Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Kling

    2014-07-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

  13. The impact of power negotiations on nursing students learning processes in simulation scenario debriefing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Anne; Topperzer, Martha; Sejr Olsen, Pernille

    element to obtain critical reflection and learning (3). During debriefing students and facilitators jointly explore what happened in the scenario, and what should be focus of the prospective learning process (4). The aim of this paper is to explore how the negotiations of power (5) in the simulation...... scenario debriefing have an impact on the learning process for novice nursing students. References: Zapko et al 2015: Interdisciplinary Disaster Drill Simulation: Laying the Groundwork for further Research. Nurse Education Perspective Nov. Dec. 36(6):379-82 Motola et al 2013: Simulation in healthcare......Clinical simulation in nursing improves student`s ability to critical thinking, clinical judgement and clinical decision- making(1). The key elements to success are planning, pre- briefing, engagement, a realistic scenario with interruptions and debriefing (2). Debriefing is highlighted as the key...

  14. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  15. New AgMIP Scenarios: Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions, Geoengineering, or Nuclear War on Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Xia, L.

    2016-12-01

    Climate is one of the most important factors determining crop yields and world food supplies. To be well prepared for possible futures, it is necessary to study yield changes of major crops in response to different climate forcings. Previous studies mainly focus on the impact from global warming. Here we propose that the AgMIP community also study the impacts of stratospheric aerosols on agriculture. While nature can load the stratosphere with sulfate aerosols for several years from large volcanic eruptions, humans could also put sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere on purpose through geoengineering or soot as a result of the fires from a nuclear war. Stratospheric aerosols would change the temperature, precipitation, total insolation, and fraction of diffuse radiation due to their radiative impacts, and could produce more ultraviolet radiation by ozone destruction. Surface ozone concentration could also change by changed transport from the stratosphere as well as changed tropospheric chemistry. As a demonstration of these effects, using the crop model in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM-crop), we have studied sulfate injection geoengineering and nuclear war impacts on global agriculture in response to temperature, precipitation and radiation changes, and found significant changes in patterns of global food production. With the new ozone module in CLM-crop, we simulated how surface ozone concentration change under sulfate injection geoengineering would change the agriculture response. Agriculture would benefit from less surface ozone concentration associated with the specific geoengineering scenario comparing with the global warming scenario. Here, we would like to encourage more crop modelers to improve crop models in terms of crop responses to ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and diffuse radiation. We also invite more global crop modeling groups to use the climate forcing we would be happy to provide to gain a better understanding of global agriculture responses

  16. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  17. World Energy Scenarios 2050: Impact of the Energy Governance Models to the Future of the European Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisel, E.

    2014-01-01

    World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario 'Jazz' describes the world, where investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis. Scenario 'Symphony' describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made by the governments. It appears that in case of Scenario 'Jazz' we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In case of Scenario 'Symphony' energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around the world. It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When Scenario 'Jazz' would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario 'Symphony' supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Sequestration Technologies. The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector. (author).

  18. Frequency of head-impact-related outcomes by position in NCAA division I collegiate football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baugh, Christine M; Kiernan, Patrick T; Kroshus, Emily; Daneshvar, Daniel H; Montenigro, Philip H; McKee, Ann C; Stern, Robert A

    2015-03-01

    Concussions and subconcussive impacts sustained in American football have been associated with short- and long-term neurological impairment, but differences in head impact outcomes across playing positions are not well understood. The American Medical Society for Sports Medicine has identified playing position as a key risk factor for concussion in football and one for which additional research is needed. This study examined variation in head impact outcomes across primary football playing positions in a group of 730 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Series athletes, using a self-report questionnaire. Although there were no significant differences between position groups in the number of diagnosed concussions during the 2012 football season, there were significant differences between groups in undiagnosed concussions (p=0.008) and "dings" (pfootball season, with offensive linemen reporting significantly more symptoms compared to most other groups. There were also positional differences in frequency of returning to play while symptomatic (p<0.001) and frequency of participating in full-contact practice (p<0.001). Offensive linemen reported having returned to play while experiencing symptoms more frequently and participating in more full-contact practices than other groups. These findings suggest that offensive linemen, a position group that experiences frequent, but low-magnitude, head impacts, develop more postimpact symptoms than other playing positions, but do not report these symptoms as a concussion.

  19. Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.

  20. Neuropsychological development in preschool children born with asymmetrical intrauterine growth restriction and impact of postnatal head growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaric, Andrea Simić; Galić, Slavka; Kolundzić, Zdravko; Bosnjak, Vlatka Mejaski

    2013-07-01

    Neuropsychological development and the impact of postnatal head growth were studied in preschool children with asymmetrical intrauterine growth restriction. Examinees born at term with a birth weight below the 10th percentile were matched to the control group according to chronological and gestational age, gender, and maternal education. Fifty children were in each group, with a mean age of 6 years, 4 months. The Touwen neurological examination, the Čuturić developmental test, an imitative hand positions test, and a visual attention test were performed. There were significant differences (Pmotor variables, the developmental quotient, and the imitative hand positions test. Fine motor skills had the most discriminative power. Relative growth of the head in relation to weight gain was positively correlated to neurocognitive outcome. Intrauterine growth-restricted children with a current head circumference ≤10th percentile had poorer outcomes. Conclusively, intrauterine growth restriction has a negative impact on neurocognitive development. Slow postnatal head growth is correlated with a poorer neuropsychological outcome.

  1. Influence of stiffness and shape of contact surface on skull fractures and biomechanical metrics of the human head of different population underlateral impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaoo, Debasis; Deck, Caroline; Yoganandan, Narayan; Willinger, Rémy

    2015-07-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the responses of 5th-percentile female, and 50th- and 95th-percentile male human heads during lateral impacts at different velocities and determine the role of the stiffness and shape of the impacting surface on peak forces and derived skull fracture metrics. A state-of-the-art validated finite element (FE) head model was used to study the influence of different population human heads on skull fracture for lateral impacts. The mass of the FE head model was altered to match the adult size dummies. Numerical simulations of lateral head impacts for 45 cases (15 experiments×3 different population human heads) were performed at velocities ranging from 2.4 to 6.5m/s and three impacting conditions (flat and cylindrical 90D; and flat 40D padding). The entire force-time signals from simulations were compared with experimental mean and upper/lower corridors at each velocity, stiffness (40 and 90 durometer) and shapes (flat and cylindrical) of the impacting surfaces. Average deviation of peak force from the 50th male to 95th male and 5th female were 6.4% and 10.6% considering impacts on the three impactors. These results indicate hierarchy of variables which can be used in injury mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. On the pressure response in the brain due to short duration blunt impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Pearce

    Full Text Available When the head is subject to non-penetrating (blunt impact, contusion-type injuries are commonly identified beneath the impact site (the coup and, in some instances, at the opposite pole (the contre-coup. This pattern of injury has long eluded satisfactory explanation and blunt head injury mechanisms in general remain poorly understood. There are only a small number of studies in the open literature investigating the head's response to short duration impacts, which can occur in collisions with light projectiles. As such, the head impact literature to date has focussed almost exclusively on impact scenarios which lead to a quasi-static pressure response in the brain. In order to investigate the response of the head to a wide range of impact durations, parametric numerical studies were performed on a highly bio-fidelic finite element model of the human head created from in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI scan data with non-linear tissue material properties. We demonstrate that short duration head impacts can lead to potentially deleterious transients of positive and negative intra-cranial pressure over an order of magnitude larger than those observed in the quasi-static regime despite reduced impact force and energy. The onset of this phenomenon is shown to be effectively predicted by the ratio of impact duration to the period of oscillation of the first ovalling mode of the system. These findings point to dramatically different pressure distributions in the brain and hence different patterns of injury depending on projectile mass, and provide a potential explanation for dual coup/contre-coup injuries observed clinically.

  3. Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Effects of CCS techniques and ocean acidification on zooplankton are under-studied. • Vulnerable zooplankton are meso-, bathypelagic and vertically migrating species. • Impacts include impaired calcification, reproduction, development and survival. • Need for modelling studies combining physico-chemical with ecological impacts. -- Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO 2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO 2 /pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle

  4. Head-Impact–Measurement Devices: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Kathryn L.; Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M.; Broglio, Steven P.

    2017-01-01

    Context: With an estimated 3.8 million sport- and recreation-related concussions occurring annually, targeted prevention and diagnostic methods are needed. Biomechanical analysis of head impacts may provide quantitative information that can inform both prevention and diagnostic strategies. Objective: To assess available head-impact devices and their clinical utility. Data Sources: We performed a systematic search of the electronic database PubMed for peer-reviewed publications, using the following phrases: accelerometer and concussion, head impact telemetry, head impacts and concussion and sensor, head impacts and sensor, impact sensor and concussion, linear acceleration and concussion, rotational acceleration and concussion, and xpatch concussion. In addition to the literature review, a Google search for head impact monitor and concussion monitor yielded 15 more devices. Study Selection: Included studies were performed in vivo, used commercially available devices, and focused on sport-related concussion. Data Extraction: One author reviewed the title and abstract of each study for inclusion and exclusion criteria and then reviewed each full-text article to confirm inclusion criteria. Controversial articles were reviewed by all authors to reach consensus. Data Synthesis: In total, 61 peer-reviewed articles involving 4 head-impact devices were included. Participants in boxing, football, ice hockey, soccer, or snow sports ranged in age from 6 to 24 years; 18% (n = 11) of the studies included female athletes. The Head Impact Telemetry System was the most widely used device (n = 53). Fourteen additional commercially available devices were presented. Conclusions: Measurements collected by impact monitors provided real-time data to estimate player exposure but did not have the requisite sensitivity to concussion. Proper interpretation of previously reported head-impact kinematics across age, sport, and position may inform future research and enable staff clinicians

  5. Relationship Between Neck Strength, Anthropometric Parameters, and Gender with Head Motion under Impact Acceleration

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morris, Charles

    1996-01-01

    .... Since women tend to have less upper-body strength than men, it was hypothesized that they may not be able to brace their heads as effectively against the loads which occur during impact and escape...

  6. Perspectives on the Salience and Magnitude of Dam Impacts for Hydro Development Scenarios in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiree Tullos

    2010-06-01

    Survey results indicate differences in the perceived salience and magnitude of impacts across both expert groups and dam scenarios. Furthermore, surveys indicate that stakeholder perceptions changed as the information provided regarding dam impacts became more specific, suggesting that stakeholder evaluation may be influenced by quality of information. Finally, qualitative comments from the survey reflect some of the challenges of interdisciplinary dam assessment, including cross-disciplinary cooperation, data standardisation and weighting, and the distribution and potential mitigation of impacts. Given the complexity of data and perceptions around dam impacts, decision-support tools that integrate the objective magnitude and perceived salience of impacts are required urgently.

  7. Repetitive head impacts do not affect postural control following a competitive athletic season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Nicholas G; Grimes, Katelyn E; Shiflett, Eric D; Munkasy, Barry A; D'Amico, Nathan R; Mormile, Megan E; Powell, Douglas W; Buckley, Thomas A

    2017-10-03

    Evidence suggests that Repetitive Head Impacts (RHI) directly influence the brain over the course of a single contact collision season yet do not significantly impact a player's performance on the standard clinical concussion assessment battery. The purpose of this study was to investigate changes in static postural control after a season of RHI in Division I football athletes using more sensitive measures of postural control as compared to a non-head contact sports. Fourteen Division I football players (CON) (age=20.4±1.12years) and fourteen non-contact athletes (NON) (2 male, 11 female; age=19.85±1.21years) completed a single trial of two minutes of eyes open quiet upright stance on a force platform (1000Hz) prior to athletic participation (PRE) and at the end of the athletic season (POST). All CON athletes wore helmets outfitted with Head Impact Telemetry (HIT) sensors and total number of RHI and linear accelerations forces of each RHI were recorded. Center of pressure root mean square (RMS), peak excursion velocity (PEV), and sample entropy (SampEn) in the anteroposterior (AP) and mediolateral (ML) directions were calculated. CON group experienced 649.5±496.8 mean number of impacts, 27.1±3.0 mean linear accelerations, with ≈1% of total player impacts exceeded 98g over the course of the season. There were no significant interactions for group x time RMS in the AP (p=0.434) and ML (p=0.114) directions, PEV in the AP (p=0.262) and ML (p=0.977) directions, and SampEn in the AP (p=0.499) and ML (p=0.984) directions. In addition, no significant interactions for group were observed for RMS in the AP (p=0.105) and ML (p=0.272) directions, PEV in the AP (p=0.081) and ML (p=0.143) directions, and SampEn in the AP (p=0.583) and ML (p=0.129) directions. These results suggest that over the course of a single competitive season, RHI do not negatively impact postural control even when measured with sensitive non-linear metrics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  8. Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate

    OpenAIRE

    Kerr, Zachary Y.; Littleton, Ashley C.; Cox, Leah M.; DeFreese, J.D.; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C.; Schmidt, Julianne D.; Marshall, Stephen W.; Guskiewicz, Kevin M.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information rel...

  9. Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-07-01

    Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

  10. Safety case methodology for decommissioning of research reactors. Assessment of the long term impact of a flooding scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladescu, G.; Banciu, O.

    1999-01-01

    The paper contains the assessment methodology of a Safety Case fuel decommissioning of research reactors, taking into account the international approach principles. The paper also includes the assessment of a flooding scenario for a decommissioned research reactor (stage 1 of decommissioning). The scenario presents the flooding of reactor basement, radionuclide migration through environment and long term radiological impact for public. (authors)

  11. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  12. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  13. Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the

  14. Scenarios for 14C release to the atmosphere by the world nuclear industry and estimated radiological impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Killough, G.G.

    1978-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the radiation dose to the world population and the associated potential health effects from three scenarios of 14 C releases by the nuclear industry between 1975 and 2020. Measures of health impact are derived from source terms through the use of a multicompartment model of the global carbon cycle, dose-rate factors based on 14 C specific activity in various organs of man, and health-effect incidence factors recently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The scenarios for worldwide 14 C releases considered are (1) a pessimistic scenario in which all the 14 C projected to be produced in fuel cycles is released, (2) an optimistic scenario that assumes a decontamination factor of 100 for fuel reprocessing, and (3) an intermediate scenario that simulates a phased improvement in effluent treatment technology at reprocessing plants. The estimates of cumulative potential health effects are based on integrations over infinite time. Comparisons with estimated effects from naturally formed 14 C are shown

  15. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  16. Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Ke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

  17. Training programme impact on thermoplastic immobilization for head and neck radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Outhwaite, Julie-Anne; McDowall, W. Robert; Marquart, Louise; Rattray, Gregory; Fielding, Andrew; Hargrave, Catriona

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether uniform guidelines and training in the stabilization and formation of thermoplastic shells can improve the reproducibility of set-up for Head and Neck cancer patients. Methods and materials: Image based measurements of the planning and treatment positions for 35 head and neck cancer patients undergoing radical radiotherapy were analysed to provide a baseline of the reproducibility of thermoplastic immobilization. Radiation therapists (RT) were surveyed to establish a perception of their confidence in thermoplastic procedures. An evidence based staff training programme was created and implemented. Set-up reproduction and staff perception were reviewed to measure the impact of the training programme. Results: The mean (SD) 3D vectors of anatomical displacement, measured on the patient images, improved from 4.64 (2.03) for the baseline group compared to 3.02 (1.65) following training (p < 0.01). The proportion of 3D displacements of patient data exceeding 5 mm 3D vector was decreased from 37.1% to 5.7% (p < 0.001) and the 3 mm vector from 85.7% to 42.9% (p < 0.001). The post-training survey scores demonstrated improved confidence in reproducibility of set-up for head and neck patients. Conclusion: The Thermoplastic Shells Training Program has been found to improve the treatment reproducibility for head and neck radiation therapy patients. Uniform guidelines have increased RT confidence in thermoplastic procedures.

  18. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  19. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  20. World Energy Scenarios to 2050: the Europe Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weeda, E.

    2006-01-01

    The topic of this paper is an overview of the Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 study objectives, with emphasis on The Report for the Europe Region. The study is focused on achievement of the 3A's global energy goal (Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability) by using various policy scenarios. The heart of the study will therefore be Policy Scenarios postulated within the context of two dimensions of government policy uncertainty. One with the dimension indicating whether the world is heading towards increased globalism and co-operation between governments and/or business and industry, or more towards bilateralism and nationalism outside global governance institutions. As outcomes, there is particularly described each of the four predicted scenarios: L'Europe des Patries, Fortress Europe, Confident Europe and Trailer Europe considering five main common indicators: political context, energy security, market forces/competition, environment/climate change, and energy mix/energy technology.(author)

  1. Management and outcome of low velocity penetrating head injury caused by impacted foreign bodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussa, Wael Mohamed Mohamed; Abbas, Mohamed

    2016-05-01

    Penetrating head injuries with impacted foreign bodies are rare, associated with a high incidence of morbidity and potentially life-threatening. In this study, we aimed at investigating the outcome of these cases as well as analyzing the factors affecting the prognosis. A retrospective study in which the records of 16 patients who had penetrating head injuries caused by low-velocity impacted foreign bodies were revised. All patients were males with a mean age of 28.9 years (range, 18 to 50 years). The follow-up period ranged from 4 to 13 months with a mean of 8.1 months. Causes of injury were construction accidents in 6 (37.5 %) patients, assault in 6 (37.5 %) and road traffic accidents in 4 (25 %). The impacted objects included a bar of iron, a piece of wood, a nail, a sickle and a piece of glass. Diagnostic computerized tomography (CT) of the brain was carried out on admission in all patients. Thirteen (81.3 %) patients were submitted to surgery, and all had the appropriate management in the form of antibiotics and dehydrating measures as required. The primary outcome measure was the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) at the end of follow-up. At the end of follow-up, ten (62.5 %) patients had a GOS score of 5, two (12.5 %) patients had a score of 4, and four (25 %) patients had a score of 1. Low-velocity penetrating head injuries are most common in young adult males. With the appropriate management, a majority of even the most severe cases can have a favorable outcome.

  2. Subsea innovative boosting technologies on deep water scenarios -- Impacts and demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caetano, E.F.; Mendonca, J.E.; Pagot, P.R.; Cotrim, M.L.; Camargo, R.M.T.; Assayag, M.I.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents the importance of deep water scenario for Brazil, the PETROBRAS Deep and Ultra-Deep Water R and D Program (PROCAP-2000) and the candidate fields for the deployment of subsea innovative boosting technologies (ESPS -- electrical submersible pump in subsea wells, SSS -- subsea separation systems and SBMS -- subsea multiphase flow pumping system) as well as the problems associated with the flow assurance in such conditions. The impact of those innovative systems, their technological stage and remaining demands to make them available for deployment in offshore subsea areas, mainly in giant deepwater fields, are discussed and predicted

  3. USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Potential Impacts to the U.S. West Coast from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J. T.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, E.; Knight, W. R.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K. M.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E. N.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V. V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project, in collaboration with the California Geological Survey, the California Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agencies and institutions are developing a Tsunami Scenario to describe in detail the impacts of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical, but realistic, M9 earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula. The overarching objective of SAFRR and its predecessor, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, is to help communities reduce losses from natural disasters. As requested by emergency managers and other community partners, a primary approach has been comprehensive, scientifically credible scenarios that start with a model of a geologic event and extend through estimates of damage, casualties, and societal consequences. The first product was the ShakeOut scenario, addressing a hypothetical earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, that spawned the successful Great California ShakeOut, an annual event and the nation's largest emergency preparedness exercise. That was followed by the ARkStorm scenario, which addresses California winter storms that surpass hurricanes in their destructive potential. Some of the Tsunami Scenario's goals include developing advanced models of currents and inundation for the event; spurring research related to Alaskan earthquake sources; engaging the port and harbor decision makers; understanding the economic impacts to local, regional and national economy in both the short and long term; understanding the ecological, environmental, and societal impacts of coastal inundation; and creating enhanced communication products for decision-making before, during, and after a tsunami event. The state of California, through CGS and Cal EMA, is using the Tsunami Scenario as an opportunity to evaluate policies regarding tsunami impact. The scenario will serve as a long-lasting resource to teach preparedness and

  4. SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick; Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research.Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive

  5. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  6. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-01-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology

  7. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  8. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  9. The Role of Interface on the Impact Characteristics and Cranial Fracture Patterns Using the Immature Porcine Head Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deland, Trevor S; Niespodziewanski, Emily; Fenton, Todd W; Haut, Roger C

    2016-01-01

    The role of impact interface characteristics on the biomechanics and patterns of cranial fracture has not been investigated in detail, and especially for the pediatric head. In this study, infant porcine skulls aged 2-19 days were dropped with an energy to cause fracturing onto four surfaces varying in stiffness from a rigid plate to one covered with plush carpeting. Results showed that heads dropped onto the rigid surface produced more extensive cranial fracturing than onto carpeted surfaces. Contact forces generated at fracture initiation and the overall maximum contact forces were generally lower for the rigid than carpeted impacts. While the degree of cranial fracturing from impacts onto the heavy carpeted surface was comparable to that of lower-energy rigid surface impacts, there were fewer diastatic fractures. This suggests that characteristics of the cranial fracture patterns may be used to differentiate energy level from impact interface in pediatric forensic cases. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  11. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

  12. Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Ranchin, Thierry, E-mail: thierry.ranchin@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Wyrwa, Artur, E-mail: awyrwa@agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Drebszok, Kamila [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Cofala, Janusz, E-mail: cofala@iiasa.ac.at [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Fuss, Sabine, E-mail: fuss@mcc-berlin.net [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-15

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.

  13. Computed tomography of head: impact of the use of automatic exposure control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Giordana Salvi de Souza; Froner, Ana Paula Pastre; Silva, Ana Maria Marques da

    2017-01-01

    The use of dose reduction systems in computed tomography is particularly important for pediatric patients, who have a high radiosensitivity, since they are in the growing phase. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of Siemens AEC Care Dose system use on dose estimation in head computed tomography scans in pediatric patients. A retrospective study was conducted with 199 computed tomography head scans of pediatric patients, divided in different age groups, on a 16-channel Siemens Emotion scanner. It was possible to observe, for all age groups, that the use of AEC Care Dose system, not only reduced CTDI vol , but also the interquartile range, reducing the total dose in the investigated population. Concluding, AEC Care Dose system models the tube current according to the patient's dimensions, reducing individual and collective dose without affecting the diagnostic quality . (author)

  14. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  15. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  16. Strategies to reduce the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting plant: A scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neto, B.; Kroeze, C.; Hordijk, L.; Costa, C.; Pulles, M.P.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study explores a model (MIKADO) to analyse scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact of an aluminium die casting plant. Our model calculates the potential to reduce emissions, and the costs associated with implementation of reduction options. In an earlier paper [Neto, B., Kroeze,

  17. Combining urbanization and hydrodynamics data to evaluate sea level rise impacts on coastal water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, C. R.; Martin, J. B.

    2016-02-01

    Assessments of the potential for salt water intrusion due to sea level rise require consideration of both coastal hydrodynamic and human activity thresholds. In siliciclastic systems, sea level rise may cause salt intrusion to coastal aquifers at annual or decadal scales, whereas in karst systems salt intrudes at the tidal scalse. In both cases, human activity impacts the freshwater portion of the system by altering the water demand on the aquifer. We combine physicochemical and human activity data to evaluate impact of sea level rise on salt intrusion to siliclastic (Indian River Lagoon, Fl, USA) and karst (Puerto Morelos, Yucatan, Mexico) systems under different sea level rise rate scenarios. Two hydrodynamic modeling scenarios are considered; flux controlled and head controlled. Under a flux controlled system hydraulic head gradients remain constant during sea level rise while under a head controlled system hydraulic graidents diminish, allowing saltwater intrusion. Our model contains three key terms; aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity. Groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity were calculated based on high frequency (karst system) and decadal (siliciclastic system) field measurements. Aquifer recharge is defined as precipitation less evapotranspiration and water demand was evaluated based on urban planning data that provided the regional water demand. Water demand includes agricultural area, toursim, traffic patterns, garbage collection and total population. Water demand was initially estimated using a partial leaset squares regression based on these variables. Our model indicates that water demand depends most on agricultural area, which has changed significantly over the last 30 years. In both systems, additional water demand creates a head controlled scenario, thus increaseing the protential fo salt intrusion with projected sea level rise.

  18. A Novel Instrumented Human Head Surrogate for the Impact Evaluation of Helmets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Petrone

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A novel Human Head Surrogate was obtained from available MRI scans of a 50th percentile male human head. Addictive manufacturing was used to produce the skull, the brain and the skin. All original MRI geometries were partially smoothed and adjusted to provide the best biofidelity compatible with printing and molding technology. The skull was 3D-printed in ABS and ten pressure sensors were placed into it. The brain surrogate was cast from silicon rubber in the 3D-printed plastic molds. Nine tri-axial accelerometers (placed at the tops of the lobes, at the sides of the lobes, in the cerebellum and in the center of mass and a three-axis gyroscope (at the center of mass were inserted into the silicon brain during casting. The cranium, after assembly with brain, was filled with silicon oil mimicking the cerebral fluid. Silicon rubber was cast in additional 3D-printed molds to form the skin surrounding the cranium. The skull base was adapted to be compatible with the Hybrid-III neck and allow the exit of brain sensors cabling. Preliminary experiments were carried out proving the functionality of the surrogate. Results showed how multiple accelerometers and pressure sensors allowed a better comprehension of the head complex motion during impacts.

  19. Analyzing the effects of geological and parameter uncertainty on prediction of groundwater head and travel time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, X.; Sonneborg, T.O.; Jørgensen, F.

    2013-01-01

    in three scenarios involving simulation of groundwater head distribution and travel time. The first scenario implied 100 stochastic geological models all assigning the same hydraulic parameters for the same geological units. In the second scenario the same 100 geological models were subjected to model...

  20. Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

    2013-08-30

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO2/pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes J. König

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China, where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested “Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA” method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. “Land intensification: Agriculture” and “Land intensification: Mining” scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the “Environmental conservation and tourism” scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

  2. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  3. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiebe, Keith; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  4. The ecological impact of city lighting scenarios: exploring gap crossing thresholds for urban bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, James D; Fairbrass, Alison J; Matthews, Thomas J; Davies, Gemma; Sadler, Jon P

    2015-02-02

    As the global population urbanizes, dramatic changes are expected in city lighting and the urban form, which may threaten the functioning of urban ecosystems and the services they deliver. However, little is known about the ecological impact of lighting in different urban contexts. Movement is an important ecological process that can be disrupted by artificial lighting. We explored the impact of lighting on gap crossing for Pipistrellus pipistrellus, a species of bat (Chiroptera) common within UK cities. We aimed to determine whether the probability of crossing gaps in tree cover varied with crossing distance and lighting level, through stratified field surveys. We then used the resulting data on barrier thresholds to model the landscape resistance due to lighting across an entire city and explored the potential impact of scenarios for future changes to street lighting. The level of illumination required to create a barrier effect reduced as crossing distance increased. For those gaps where crossing was recorded, bats selected the darker parts of gaps. Heavily built parts of the case study city were associated with large and brightly lit gaps, and spatial models indicate movement would be highly restricted in these areas. Under a scenario for brighter street lighting, the area of accessible land cover was further reduced in heavily built parts of the city. We believe that this is the first study to demonstrate how lighting may create resistance to species movement throughout an entire city. That connectivity in urban areas is being disrupted for a relatively common species raises questions about the impacts on less tolerant groups and the resilience of bat communities in urban centres. However, this mechanistic approach raises the possibility that some ecological function could be restored in these areas through the strategic dimming of lighting and narrowing of gaps. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Novel Method of Weighting Cumulative Helmet Impacts Improves Correlation with Brain White Matter Changes After One Football Season of Sub-concussive Head Blows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant-Borna, Kian; Asselin, Patrick; Narayan, Darren; Abar, Beau; Jones, Courtney M C; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

    2016-12-01

    One football season of sub-concussive head blows has been shown to be associated with subclinical white matter (WM) changes on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Prior research analyses of helmet-based impact metrics using mean and peak linear and rotational acceleration showed relatively weak correlations to these WM changes; however, these analyses failed to account for the emerging concept that neuronal vulnerability to successive hits is inversely related to the time between hits (TBH). To develop a novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows during a single season of collegiate football by weighting helmet-based impact measures for time between helmet impacts. We further aim to compare correlations to changes in DTI after one season of collegiate football using weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures to correlations using non-weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures and non-cumulative measures. We performed a secondary analysis of DTI and helmet impact data collected on ten Division III collegiate football players during the 2011 season. All subjects underwent diffusion MR imaging before the start of the football season and within 1 week of the end of the football season. Helmet impacts were recorded at each practice and game using helmet-mounted accelerometers, which computed five helmet-based impact measures for each hit: linear acceleration (LA), rotational acceleration (RA), Gadd Severity Index (GSI), Head Injury Criterion (HIC 15 ), and Head Impact Technology severity profile (HITsp). All helmet-based impact measures were analyzed using five methods of summary: peak and mean (non-cumulative measures), season sum-totals (cumulative unweighted measures), and season sum-totals weighted for time between hits (TBH), the interval of time from hit to post-season DTI assessment (TUA), and both TBH and TUA combined. Summarized helmet-based impact measures were correlated to statistically significant changes in

  6. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region I (New England)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.

    1979-01-01

    The impacts described here for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. Since the RIIA program is part of an ongoing review of the regional impact of energy policies, the next phase will examine the National Energy Act (NEA) and initiatives suggested by the President's second National Energy Plan. However, since coal utilization increases under the NEA, in general, impacts identified in the TRENDLONG Series C Scenario should provide a framework for the discussion of impacts by NEA. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region I (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). However, there are nine companion volumes, one for each of the other Federal Regions

  7. Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, M.; Holman, I. P.; Svobodová, E.; Harrison, P. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : global Climate Model * ensemble of models * climate change * climate change scenarios * climate change impact indices * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.344, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1297-7

  8. Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

    2017-05-01

    The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

  9. Evaluation of human thorax FE model in various impact scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jansová M.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on the validation of the 50th percentile male model — a detailed FE model of the thoracic segment of the human body developed within project Development of a Finite Element Model of the Human Thorax and Upper Extremities (THOMO co-funded by the European Commission (7th Framework Programme. The model response was tested in three impact scenarios: frontal, lateral and oblique. The resulting impactor contact force vs. time and chest deflection vs. time responses were compared with experimental results. The strain profile of the 5th rib was checked with lateral and oblique strain profiles from post-mortem human subject (PMHS experiments. The influence of heart and lungs on the mechanical response of the model was assessed and the material data configuration, giving the most biofidelic thorax behaviour, was identified.

  10. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Noël, Thomas; Jerez, Sonia; Thais, Françoise; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-01-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)

  11. Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

  12. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  13. Modeling fates and impacts for bio-economic analysis of hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, D.; Whittier, N.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Jennings, J.; Etkin, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    The oil spill risks associated with four submerged rock pinnacles near Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay are being evaluated by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Oil spill modeling has been conducted for a hypothetical oil spill to determine biological impacts, damages to natural resources and response costs. The scenarios are hypothetical vessel grounding on the pinnacles. The SIMAP modeling software by the Applied Science Associates was used to model 3 spill sizes (20, 50 and 95 percentile by volume) and 4 types of oil (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The frequency distribution of oil fates and impacts was determined by first running each scenario in stochastic mode. The oil fates and biological effects of the spills were the focus of this paper. It was shown that diesel and crude oil spills would have greater impacts in the water column than heavy fuel or gasoline because gasoline is more volatile and less toxic and because heavy oil spills would be small in volume. It was determined that the major impacts and damage to birds would be low due to the high dilution potential of the bay. It was also noted that dispersants would be very effective in reducing impacts on wildlife and the shoreline. These results are being used to evaluate the cost-benefit analysis of removing the rocks versus the risk of an oil spill. The work demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method to estimate potential impacts that could be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. 15 refs., 13 tabs., 11 figs

  14. Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts in Oregon Coastal Counties from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-07-01

    This analysis examines the employment and potential economic impacts of large-scale deployment of offshore wind technology off the coast of Oregon. This analysis examines impacts within the seven Oregon coastal counties: Clatsop, Tillamook, Lincoln, Lane, Douglas, Coos, and Curry. The impacts highlighted here can be used in county, state, and regional planning discussions and can be scaled to get a general sense of the economic development opportunities associated with other deployment scenarios.

  15. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  16. Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.

    2011-01-01

    Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. - Research Highlights: →The power sector in Nigeria is set to grow significantly in near future. →Power sector scenarios are constructed and studied using LCA and economic analysis methods and then compared against the Government's plans. →These include two fossil-fuel and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios. →The results explicitly show the trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs. →Following the fossil fuel paths will reduce capital costs but increase environmental impacts. The renewable energy paths will reduce some environmental impacts but increase the capital costs.

  17. Shivering heat production and core cooling during head-in and head-out immersion in 17 degrees C water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretorius, Thea; Cahill, Farrell; Kocay, Sheila; Giesbrecht, Gordon G

    2008-05-01

    Many cold-water scenarios cause the head to be partially or fully immersed (e.g., ship wreck survival, scuba diving, cold-water adventure swim racing, cold-water drowning, etc.). However, the specific effects of head cold exposure are minimally understood. This study isolated the effect of whole-head submersion in cold water on surface heat loss and body core cooling when the protective shivering mechanism was intact. Eight healthy men were studied in 17 degrees C water under four conditions: the body was either insulated or exposed, with the head either out of the water or completely submersed under the water within each insulated/exposed subcondition. Submersion of the head (7% of the body surface area) in the body-exposed condition increased total heat loss by 11% (P < 0.05). After 45 min, head-submersion increased core cooling by 343% in the body-insulated subcondition (head-out: 0.13 +/- 0.2 degree C, head-in: 0.47 +/- 0.3 degree C; P < 0.05) and by 56% in the body-exposed subcondition (head-out: 0.40 +/- 0.3 degree C and head-in: 0.73 +/- 0.6 degree C; P < 0.05). In both body-exposed and body-insulated subconditions, head submersion increased the rate of core cooling disproportionally more than the relative increase in total heat loss. This exaggerated core-cooling effect is consistent with a head cooling induced reduction of the thermal core, which could be stimulated by cooling of thermosensitive and/or trigeminal receptors in the scalp, neck, and face. These cooling effects of head submersion are not prevented by shivering heat production.

  18. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  19. The role of Human papillomavirus in head and neck cancer and the impact on radiotherapy outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassen, Pernille

    2010-01-01

    The profound influence of Human papillomavirus (HPV) on the epidemiological pattern and clinical course of head and neck cancer (HNSCC) has led to a change in the traditional understanding of this disease entity. Separate therapeutic strategies based on tumour HPV status are under consideration and in this light provision of knowledge concerning the influence of tumour HPV on the radiation response in HNSCC appears highly relevant. This review provides a summary of the current understanding of the role of HPV in head and neck cancer with specific focus on the viral impact on radiotherapy outcome of HNSCC.

  20. 29 CFR 1926.100 - Head protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 8 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Head protection. 1926.100 Section 1926.100 Labor... § 1926.100 Head protection. (a) Employees working in areas where there is a possible danger of head... protected by protective helmets. (b) Helmets for the protection of employees against impact and penetration...

  1. Channel heads in mountain catchments subject to human impact - The Skrzyczne range in Southern Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrońska-Wałach, Dominika; Żelazny, Mirosław; Małek, Stanisław; Krakowian, Katarzyna; Dąbek, Natalia

    2018-05-01

    Channel heads in mountain catchments are increasingly influenced by human activity. The disturbance of mountain headwater areas in moderate latitudes by the clearing of trees and the associated logging, road building and hydrotechnical constructions contribute to changes in the water cycle and consequently may induce a change in channel head development. Here we examine channel heads in the Beskid Śląski Mts., one of the areas most affected by ecological disaster in the Polish Flysch Carpathians. An ecological disaster associated with the decline of spruce trees in the 1980s and 1990s caused a substantial decrease (of about 50%) in the land area occupied by spruce forest in the Beskid Śląski Mts. As a result, headwater areas were subject to multidirectional changes in the environment. The purpose of this paper is to determine the detailed characteristics of channel heads currently developing in the analyzed headwater areas, as well as to identify independent factors that affect the evolution of channel heads. Geomorphological mapping was conducted in 2012 in the vicinity of springs in the study area. One-way ANOVA was used to determine the significance of differences between mean values calculated for groups identified based on: i) geomorphologic processes (hollows with rock veneer - h, spring niches - sn, gullies - g), ii) location vs. transformation of channel heads (forested areas vs., deforested areas with road constructions). Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to determine the structure and general patterns associated with relationships between the parameters of a channel head and its contribution area, as well as to identify and interpret new (orthogonal) spaces defined using distinct factors. As far as we know, this kind of approach has been never applied before. A total of 80 channel heads surrounding 104 springs were surveyed close to the main ridge in the study area. A total of 14 morphometric parameters were taken into account in this study

  2. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  3. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  4. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  5. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  6. Characterizing occipital condyle loads under high-speed head rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pintar, Frank A; Yoganandan, Narayan; Baisden, Jamie

    2005-11-01

    Because of the need to evaluate anthropomorphic test device (ATD) biofidelity under high-head angular accelerations, the purpose of the present investigation was to develop appropriate instrumentation for intact post mortem human subject (PMHS) testing, validate the instrumentation, and obtain information to characterize the response of the head-neck complex under this loading scenario. A series of rigid-arm pendulum, inertially loaded ATD tests was conducted. Head and neck ATD hydraulic piston chin pull tests were conducted. Subsequently, a series of PMHS tests was conducted to derive the response of the human head-neck under high-rate chin loading. Finally, Hybrid III and THOR-NT ATD head-neck systems were evaluated under the same scenario as the PMHS. A parametric analysis for center of gravity (CG) location and accelerometer orientation determined that even small errors (+/- 3 mm or 2 degrees), produced errors in the force and moment calculations by as much as 17 %. If the moment of inertia (MOI) term was varied by 5 %, resulting moment calculations were affected by as much as 8 %. If the 5 % error in MOI was used to compute occipital condyle moments, and results compared to upper load cell derived moments, peaks differed by as much as 24 %. The head CG and mass MOI should be directly measured for each preparation to obtain accurate results. The injury run on each specimen resulted in predominantly C1-C2 separations or partial separations. The 50(th) percentile probability of AIS=2+ neck injury using tensile force was about 2400 N; for AIS=3+ neck injury the 50(th) percentile risk was about 3180 N. When inserting extension moment as the criteria, the 50(th) percentile probability of an AIS=2+ injury was 51 Nm. The AIS=3+ extension moment at the 50(th) percentile probability was 75 Nm. The new THOR-NT ATD head-neck produced more biofidelic responses with an alternate head-neck junction design compared to the Hybrid III ATD.

  7. How big of an effect do small dams have? Using geomorphological footprints to quantify spatial impact of low-head dams and identify patterns of across-dam variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fencl, Jane S.; Mather, Martha E.; Costigan, Katie H.; Daniels, Melinda D.

    2015-01-01

    Longitudinal connectivity is a fundamental characteristic of rivers that can be disrupted by natural and anthropogenic processes. Dams are significant disruptions to streams. Over 2,000,000 low-head dams (research and conservation is impaired by not knowing the magnitude of low-head dam impacts. Based on the geomorphic literature, we refined a methodology that allowed us to quantify the spatial extent of low-head dam impacts (herein dam footprint), assessed variation in dam footprints across low-head dams within a river network, and identified select aspects of the context of this variation. Wetted width, depth, and substrate size distributions upstream and downstream of six low-head dams within the Upper Neosho River, Kansas, United States of America were measured. Total dam footprints averaged 7.9 km (3.0–15.3 km) or 287 wetted widths (136–437 wetted widths). Estimates included both upstream (mean: 6.7 km or 243 wetted widths) and downstream footprints (mean: 1.2 km or 44 wetted widths). Altogether the six low-head dams impacted 47.3 km (about 17%) of the mainstem in the river network. Despite differences in age, size, location, and primary function, the sizes of geomorphic footprints of individual low-head dams in the Upper Neosho river network were relatively similar. The number of upstream dams and distance to upstream dams, but not dam height, affected the spatial extent of dam footprints. In summary, ubiquitous low-head dams individually and cumulatively altered lotic ecosystems. Both characteristics of individual dams and the context of neighboring dams affected low-head dam impacts within the river network. For these reasons, low-head dams require a different, more integrative, approach for research and management than the individualistic approach that has been applied to larger dams.

  8. Impact of Terrorism on Managerial Efficiency of Heads of Secondary Schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khattak, Usman Ghani; Iqba, Javed

    2015-01-01

    Terrorism has adversely affected the educational environment in Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa Province. This study was conducted to know the impact of Terrorism on managerial efficiency of heads of secondary schools in Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa that included Malakand, Mangawara, Dir, Hangu , Bannu and D I Khan which are the highly affected areas of terrorism.…

  9. Do we need to account for scenarios of land use/land cover changes in regional climate modeling and impact studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, Susanna; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Perrin, Mathieu; Stefanon, Marc

    2016-04-01

    By modifying the Earth's natural landscapes, humans have introduced an imbalance in the Earth System's energy, water and emission fluxes via land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs). Through land-atmosphere interactions, LULCCs influence weather, air quality and climate at different scales, from regional/local (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Therefore, in the context of climate change, LULCCs will play a role locally/regionally in altering weather/atmospheric conditions. In addition to the global climate change impacts, LULCCs will possibly induce further changes in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and thereby affect adaptation strategies. If LULCCs influence weather/atmospheric conditions, could land use planning alter climate conditions and ease the impact of climate change by wisely shaping urban and rural landscapes? Nowadays, numerical land-atmosphere modelling allows to assess LULCC impacts at different scales (e.g., Marshall et al., 2003; de Noblet-Ducoudré et al., 2011). However, most scenarios of climate changes used to force impact models result from downscaling procedures that do not account for LULCCs (e.g., Jacob et al., 2014). Therefore, if numerical modelling may help in tackling the discussion about LULCCs, do existing LULCC scenarios encompass realistic changes in terms of land use planning? In the present study, we apply a surface model to compare projected LULCC scenarios over France and to assess their impacts on surface fluxes (i.e., water, heat and carbon dioxide fluxes) and on water and carbon storage in soils. To depict future LULCCs in France, we use RCP scenarios from the IPCC AR5 report (Moss et al., 2011). LULCCs encompassed in RCPs are discussed in terms of: (a) their impacts on water and energy balance over France, and (b) their feasibility in the framework of land use planning in France. This study is the first step to quantify the sensitivity of land

  10. Effect of head restraint backset on head-neck kinematics in whiplash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemper, Brian D; Yoganandan, Narayan; Pintar, Frank A

    2006-03-01

    Although head restraints were introduced in the 1960s as a countermeasure for whiplash, their limited effectiveness has been attributed to incorrect positioning. The effect of backset on cervical segmental angulations, which were previously correlated with spinal injury, has not been delineated. Therefore, the practical restraint position to minimize injury remains unclear. A parametric study of increasing head restraint backset between 0 and 140mm was conducted using a comprehensively validated computational model. Head retraction values increased with increasing backset, reaching a maximum value of 53.5mm for backsets greater than 60mm. Segmental angulation magnitudes, greatest at levels C5-C6 and C6-C7, reached maximum values during the retraction phase and increased with increasing backset. Results were compared to a previously published head restraint rating system, wherein lower cervical extension magnitudes from this study exceeded mean physiologic limits for restraint positions rated good, acceptable, marginal, and poor. As head restraint contact was the limiting factor in head retraction and segmental angulations, the present study indicates that minimizing whiplash injury may be accomplished by limiting head restraint backset to less than 60mm either passively or actively after impact.

  11. Active Head Restraints Used to Improve the Car Seats Safety in a Rear Impact Situation, in Accordance with the Requirements of EURO NCAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Solopov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the urgent, presently, problem that is to ensure the best level of the passive safety of car seats with active head restraints, as well as to assess the effectiveness of such constructional designs. This is an impact-related task, to be, as a consequence, essentially nonlinear with large deformations, strains and accelerations.To solve this problem finite element models of three types of seat designs with active head restraints have been developed. When creating the simulation FEM a number of CAD (Computer Aided Design/CAE (Computer Aided Engineering software was used.This work was performed within the framework of the developed technique, which allows an efficient creation of the car seat designs with passive and active head restraints that meet requirements of the passive safety.The results of calculations and experiments allowed us to find that the active head restraint significantly reduced a NIC (Neck Injury Criterion value, namely up to 36.92 (4% when using the active headrest with articulated tilting couch, 29.23 (per 24% when using the active headrest with sliding pad, and 26.15 (31% when using the active head restraint, which is provided with an airbag. We have also managed to achieve significantly reduced head acceleration under impact.It was found that FEM seats with active head restraint, which is provided with an airbag, are the most secure because of the least NIC value under the impact (26.15.Presented in the article materials are used in teaching students at the department “Wheeled vehicles” of scientific and educational complex "Special engineering" in BMSTU.

  12. Analysis of real-time head accelerations in collegiate football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duma, Stefan M; Manoogian, Sarah J; Bussone, William R; Brolinson, P Gunnar; Goforth, Mike W; Donnenwerth, Jesse J; Greenwald, Richard M; Chu, Jeffrey J; Crisco, Joseph J

    2005-01-01

    To measure and analyze head accelerations during American collegiate football practices and games. A newly developed in-helmet 6-accelerometer system that transmits data via radio frequency to a sideline receiver and laptop computer system was implemented. From the data transfer of these accelerometer traces, the sideline staff has real-time data including the head acceleration, the head injury criteria value, the severity index value, and the impact location. Data are presented for instrumented players for the entire 2003 football season, including practices and games. American collegiate football. Thirty-eight players from Virginia Tech's varsity football team. Accelerations and pathomechanics of head impacts. : A total of 3312 impacts were recorded over 35 practices and 10 games for 38 players. The average peak head acceleration, Gadd Severity Index, and Head Injury Criteria were 32 g +/- 25 g, 36 g +/- 91 g, and 26 g +/- 64 g, respectively. One concussive event was observed with a peak acceleration of 81 g, a 267 Gadd Severity Index, and 200 Head Injury Criteria. Because the concussion was not reported until the day after of the event, a retrospective diagnosis based on his history and clinical evaluation suggested a mild concussion. The primary finding of this study is that the helmet-mounted accelerometer system proved effective at collecting thousands of head impact events and providing contemporaneous head impact parameters that can be integrated with existing clinical evaluation techniques.

  13. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  14. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  15. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  16. A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

    2017-10-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

  17. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  18. Rotational Acceleration during Head Impact Resulting from Different Judo Throwing Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    MURAYAMA, Haruo; HITOSUGI, Masahito; MOTOZAWA, Yasuki; OGINO, Masahiro; KOYAMA, Katsuhiro

    2014-01-01

    Most severe head injuries in judo are reported as acute subdural hematoma. It is thus necessary to examine the rotational acceleration of the head to clarify the mechanism of head injuries. We determined the rotational acceleration of the head when the subject is thrown by judo techniques. One Japanese male judo expert threw an anthropomorphic test device using two throwing techniques, Osoto-gari and Ouchigari. Rotational and translational head accelerations were measured with and without an ...

  19. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  20. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  1. Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl W. Steininger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords: climate impact, local impact, economic evaluation, adaptation

  2. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  3. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  4. Effects of Soccer Heading on Brain Structure and Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Ana Carolina; Lasmar, Rodrigo Pace; Caramelli, Paulo

    2016-01-01

    Soccer is the most popular sport in the world, with more than 265 million players worldwide, including professional and amateur ones. Soccer is unique in comparison to other sports, as it is the only sport in which participants purposely use their head to hit the ball. Heading is considered as an offensive or defensive move whereby the player’s unprotected head is used to deliberately impact the ball and direct it during play. A soccer player can be subjected to an average of 6–12 incidents of heading the ball per competitive game, where the ball reaches high velocities. Moreover, in practice sessions, heading training, which involves heading the ball repeatedly at low velocities, is common. Although the scientific community, as well as the media, has focused on the effects of concussions in contact sports, the role of subconcussive impacts, as it can occur during heading, has recently gained attention, considering that it may represent an additional mechanism of cumulative brain injury. The purpose of this study is to review the existing literature regarding the effects of soccer heading on brain structure and function. Only in the last years, some investigations have addressed the impact of heading on brain structure, by using neuroimaging techniques. Similarly, there have been some recent studies investigating biochemical markers of brain injury in soccer players. There is evidence of association between heading and abnormal brain structure, but the data are still preliminary. Also, some studies have suggested that subconcussive head impacts, as heading, could cause cognitive impairment, whereas others have not corroborated this finding. Questions persist as to whether or not heading is deleterious to cognitive functioning. Further studies, especially with longitudinal designs, are needed to clarify the clinical significance of heading as a cause of brain injury and to identify risk factors. Such investigations might contribute to the establishment of safety

  5. Effects of soccer heading on brain structure and function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carolina Oliveira Rodrigues

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Soccer is the most popular sport in the world, with more than 265 million players worldwide, including professional and amateur ones. Soccer is unique in comparison to other sports, as it is the only sport in which participants purposely use their head to hit the ball. Heading is considered an offensive or defensive move whereby the player’s unprotected head is used to deliberately impact the ball and direct it during play. A soccer player can be subjected to an average of six to twelve incidents of heading the ball per competitive game, where the ball reaches high velocities. Moreover, in practice sessions, heading training, which involves heading the ball repeatedly at low velocities, is common. Although the scientific community, as well as the media, has focused on the effects of concussions in contact sports, the role of subconcussive impacts, as it can occur during heading, has recently gained attention, considering that it may represent an additional mechanism of cumulative brain injury. The purpose of this study is to review the existing literature regarding the effects of soccer heading on brain structure and function. Only in the last years some investigations have addressed the impact of heading on brain structure, by using neuroimaging techniques. Similarly, there have been some recent studies investigating biochemical markers of brain injury in soccer players. There is evidence of association between heading and abnormal brain structure, but the data are still preliminary. Also, some studies have suggested that subconcussive head impacts, as heading, could cause cognitive impairment, whereas others have not corroborated this finding. Questions persist as to whether or not heading is deleterious to cognitive functioning. Further studies, especially with longitudinal designs, are needed to clarify the clinical significance of heading as a cause of brain injury and to identify risk factors. Such investigations might contribute to the

  6. Less efficient oculomotor performance is associated with increased incidence of head impacts in high school ice hockey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, Adam W; DiCesare, Christopher; Nalepka, Patrick; Foss, Kim Barber; Thomas, Staci; Myer, Gregory D

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate associations between pre-season oculomotor performance on visual tracking tasks and in-season head impact incidence during high school boys ice hockey. Prospective observational study design. Fifteen healthy high school aged male hockey athletes (M=16.50±1.17years) performed two 30s blocks each of a prosaccade and self-paced saccade task, and two trials each of a slow, medium, and fast smooth pursuit task (90°s -1 ; 180°s -1 ; 360°s -1 ) during the pre-season. Regular season in-game collision data were collected via helmet-mounted accelerometers. Simple linear regressions were used to examine relations between oculomotor performance measures and collision incidence at various impact thresholds. The variability of prosaccade latency was positively related to total collisions for the 20g force cutoff (p=0.046, adjusted R 2 =0.28). The average self-paced saccade velocity (p=0.020, adjusted R 2 =0.37) and variability of smooth pursuit gaze velocity (p=0.012, adjusted R 2 =0.47) were also positively associated with total collisions for the 50g force cutoff. These results provide preliminary evidence that less efficient oculomotor performance on three different oculomotor tasks is associated with increased incidence of head impacts during a competitive ice hockey season. The variability of prosaccade latency, the average self-paced saccade velocity and the variability of gaze velocity during predictable smooth pursuit all related to increased head impacts. Future work is needed to further understand player initiated collisions, but this is an important first step toward understanding strategies to reduce incidence of injury risk in ice hockey, and potentially contact sports more generally. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  8. Impact of conventional radiotherapy on health-related quality of life and critical functions of the head and neck

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connor, Nadine P.; Cohen, Stacy B. M.A.; Kammer, Rachael E.; Sullivan, Paula A.; Brewer, Kathryn A.; Hong, Theodore S.; Chappell, Richard J.; Harari, Paul M.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Head-and-neck radiotherapy is associated with significant morbidities. Our purpose was to document impact of morbidities by use of multiple objective measures and health-related quality of life (HR-QOL). Methods and Materials: Ten head-and-neck cancer patients were evaluated before receiving conventional head-and-neck radiotherapy and at 1 month and 6 months after treatment. We evaluated weight, saliva production, diet, swallow function, auditory function, and HR-QOL. Results: After radiotherapy, weight was reduced in 89% of subjects. Salivary function was significantly reduced and did not resolve by 6 months. Diet impairment and abnormalities in swallowing function persisted at 6 months. Perception of physical functioning was reduced after treatment, and swallowing, coughing, and dry-mouth symptoms increased. Very few changes were observed in auditory function. Conclusions: Conventional head-and-neck radiotherapy is associated with substantial functional deficits and diminished HR-QOL. Deficits reported here can serve as a baseline for comparison with results derived from new radiotherapy-treatment techniques

  9. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water......-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use...... change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected...

  10. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  11. Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

    Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

  12. Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

  13. Future impact of new technologies: Three scenarios, their competence gaps and research implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    the 'technology push' and 'market pull representatives', whom we feel are both very important basic driving forces. The aim is to get an idea of the very different roles science or technology can take in the near future for a specific industry, in this case the Danish food industry and present a methodological......What will the impact of science be ten years from now in the food industry? Large or overwhelming most people will probably agree. But before we can be any more specific, we need to address the questions of what type or aspect of science or technology we have in mind and secondly, what kind...... in the future. Our approach is to construct a number of likely pictures of the future and then look at the role and impact of technology and science in each of the pictures. We do this by using an industry level scenario technique, in which we rely heavily on expert and industry inputs representing both...

  14. Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reneses, Javier; Centeno, Efraim

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005-2007) and the second phase (2008-2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO 2 -emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO 2 -emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO 2 -emission prices over Euro 15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies)

  15. Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

  16. Rotational acceleration during head impact resulting from different judo throwing techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Haruo; Hitosugi, Masahito; Motozawa, Yasuki; Ogino, Masahiro; Koyama, Katsuhiro

    2014-01-01

    Most severe head injuries in judo are reported as acute subdural hematoma. It is thus necessary to examine the rotational acceleration of the head to clarify the mechanism of head injuries. We determined the rotational acceleration of the head when the subject is thrown by judo techniques. One Japanese male judo expert threw an anthropomorphic test device using two throwing techniques, Osoto-gari and Ouchi-gari. Rotational and translational head accelerations were measured with and without an under-mat. For Osoto-gari, peak resultant rotational acceleration ranged from 4,284.2 rad/s(2) to 5,525.9 rad/s(2) and peak resultant translational acceleration ranged from 64.3 g to 87.2 g; for Ouchi-gari, the accelerations respectively ranged from 1,708.0 rad/s(2) to 2,104.1 rad/s(2) and from 120.2 g to 149.4 g. The resultant rotational acceleration did not decrease with installation of an under-mat for both Ouchi-gari and Osoto-gari. We found that head contact with the tatami could result in the peak values of translational and rotational accelerations, respectively. In general, because kinematics of the body strongly affects translational and rotational accelerations of the head, both accelerations should be measured to analyze the underlying mechanism of head injury. As a primary preventative measure, throwing techniques should be restricted to participants demonstrating ability in ukemi techniques to avoid head contact with the tatami.

  17. Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somers, Jeffrey T.; Melvin, John W.; Tabiei, Ala; Lawrence, Charles; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Granderson, Bradley; Feiveson, Alan; Gernhardt, Michael; Patalak, John

    2011-01-01

    NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach

  18. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  19. Do head-restraints protect the neck from whiplash injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, F

    1989-01-01

    Over an 11-month period a study was made of all patients presenting to an accident and emergency department who had sustained whiplash as a result of rear-bumper impacts. The patients were analysed with respect to the presence of head-restraints in their vehicles. A significant increase in the incidence of whiplash was found in patients whose vehicles did not have head-restraints fitted. Legislation requiring all passenger cars to have head-restraints fitted as standard would have a major impact in reducing the number of whiplash injuries sustained in rear bumper impacts. PMID:2712983

  20. Sustainable Supply Chain Management: The Influence of Disposal Scenarios on the Environmental Impact of a 2400 L Waste Container

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eduardo Galve

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the influence of the supply chain management on the environmental impact of a 2400 L waste disposal container used in most cities of Spain. The studied functional unit, a waste disposal container, made up mostly of plastic materials and a metallic structure, and manufactured in Madrid (Spain, is distributed to several cities at an average distance of 392 km. A life cycle assessment of four different scenarios (SC has been calculated with the software EcoTool v4.0 (version 4.0; i+: Zaragoza, Spain, 2015 and using Ecoinvent v3.0 database (version 3.0; Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories: St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2013. The environmental impact has been characterized with two different methodologies, recipe and carbon footprint. In order to reduce the environmental impact, several end of life scenarios have been performed, analyzing the influence of the supply chain on a closed-looped system that increases recycling. Closed loop management of the waste and reuse of parts allows companies to stop selling products and start selling the service that their products give to the consumers.

  1. Radiological scenario modeling using the Hotspot code and potential financial impact of treatment of radiation induced cancer to the public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de

    2015-01-01

    The work aims to develop a methodology that is able to estimate the financial impact in a radiological emergency events, considering the radiation induced cancer, particularly leukemia. Considering a RDD - Radiological Dispersive Device, consisting of explosives and cesium-137 as radioactive material, a scenario building on the Rio de Janeiro was modeled. The convergence of a risk modeling platform (HotSpot 3.0), the analysis of excess relative risks for humans (BEIR V-Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation V), considering scenarios composed of contaminated areas, are secondary goals

  2. 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Das, Paritosh [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    2017-10-03

    The 2017 Standard Scenarios includes a suite of U.S. electricity sector scenarios. The report explores four power sector storylines, including the growth in natural gas and renewable energy, the relative competitiveness of wind and solar PV, the potential impact of low-cost battery storage, and the impact of nuclear lifetimes on the capacity expansion of the power sector.

  3. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  4. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  5. Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

    2018-03-01

    Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  6. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  7. Development of climate change scenarios to evaluate the impacts of temperature change on the energy demand in south of Quebec

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamount, D.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In year 2000, Hydro-Quebec Distribution began to integrate temperature change in the planning of Quebec energy demand. With the evolution of knowledge in climate change science and the availability of larger ensemble of climate projections from GCMs (Global Climate Model), the methodology has progressively improved and uncertainties are now more efficiently taken into account. Inclusion of temperature evolution in the estimation of energy demand covers two issues : 1) the adjustment of climate normals as reference values and 2) integration of the climate change scenario in long term planning (horizon 2040). Recently, the analysis of an ensemble of climate simulations produced from 17 different GCMs forced by 3 emissions scenarios for a total of 39 projections, enabled these two aspects to be effectively addressed. Following the analysis the use of linear temperature increase on a monthly basis is recommended for the needs of addressing climate change impacts on energy demand. Higher slope values are obtained during winter while lower ones are present in summer. Heating and cooling degree days have then been calculated for an optimistic, median and pessimistic climate change scenario to evaluate economic impacts of temperature change on three energy sources: hydro-power, natural gas and heating oil. The evaluation was carried out taking into account not only the temperature change scenario but demographical and economical scenarios as well. Obviously, temperature increase will cause opposite effects for the winter and summer seasons (reducing energy demand for heating purpose during winter while increasing cooling demand during summer). However, comparing energy sources, combustibles might see a more important decrease than hydro-power. Overall, the net effect of temperature change on energy demand is quite small: a reduction of 2 to 3% is projected. (author)

  8. Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

    2017-12-01

    As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ˜ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies

  9. Single season changes in resting state network power and the connectivity between regions distinguish head impact exposure level in high school and youth football players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murugesan, Gowtham; Saghafi, Behrouz; Davenport, Elizabeth; Wagner, Ben; Urban, Jillian; Kelley, Mireille; Jones, Derek; Powers, Alex; Whitlow, Christopher; Stitzel, Joel; Maldjian, Joseph; Montillo, Albert

    2018-02-01

    The effect of repetitive sub-concussive head impact exposure in contact sports like American football on brain health is poorly understood, especially in the understudied populations of youth and high school players. These players, aged 9-18 years old may be particularly susceptible to impact exposure as their brains are undergoing rapid maturation. This study helps fill the void by quantifying the association between head impact exposure and functional connectivity, an important aspect of brain health measurable via resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI). The contributions of this paper are three fold. First, the data from two separate studies (youth and high school) are combined to form a high-powered analysis with 60 players. These players experience head acceleration within overlapping impact exposure making their combination particularly appropriate. Second, multiple features are extracted from rs-fMRI and tested for their association with impact exposure. One type of feature is the power spectral density decomposition of intrinsic, spatially distributed networks extracted via independent components analysis (ICA). Another feature type is the functional connectivity between brain regions known often associated with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Third, multiple supervised machine learning algorithms are evaluated for their stability and predictive accuracy in a low bias, nested cross-validation modeling framework. Each classifier predicts whether a player sustained low or high levels of head impact exposure. The nested cross validation reveals similarly high classification performance across the feature types, and the Support Vector, Extremely randomized trees, and Gradboost classifiers achieve F1-score up to 75%.

  10. The net employment impact of energy transition in France: An input-output analysis of the 'negaWatt' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quirion, Philippe

    2013-04-01

    We study the impact on employment in France of the implementation of the energy transition scenario built by negaWatt (2011), which provides a massive development of energy savings (through measures of sufficiency and energy efficiency) and renewable energy between 2012 and 2050. Compared to 2010, this scenario results in a halving of CO 2 emissions from energy sources in France in 2030 and a division by 16 in 2050, without capture and storage of CO 2 , without implementation of new nuclear power plant and closing existing plants after 40 years of operation at maximum. We calculate the effect on employment of the implementation of this scenario compared to a baseline scenario that extends recent developments and considers the policies already decided. The method used to calculate the effect on employment of each scenario is to calculate the cost of the main technical and organizational options used, to allocate these costs among the 118 branches of the French economy and multiply these costs by the employment content of each branch. The latter is estimated by input-output analysis, which enables the recording of jobs generated by the production of all inputs. One of two scenarios being more expensive than the other, one must take into account the negative effect on employment of funding such costs. For this, it is assumed that this additional cost is borne by households and that they decrease their consumption accordingly by the same amount. This avoids biasing the results in favour of the most expensive scenario. The implementation of negaWatt scenario leads to a positive effect on employment, on the order of 240 000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2020 and 630,000 in 2030. We study the sensitivity of results to assumptions on prices of imported energy, the evolution of labour productivity, the distribution of costs between households and governments, and finally the consumption-savings decision. The effect on employment is largely positive in all cases. (author)

  11. Minor actinides transmutation scenario studies with PWRs, FRs and moderated targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grouiller, J.P.; Pillon, S.; Saint Jean, C. de; Varaine, F.; Leyval, L.; Vambenepe, G.; Carlier, B.

    2003-01-01

    Using current technologies, we have demonstrated in this study that it is theoretically possible to obtain different minor actinide transmutation scenarios with a significant gain on the waste radiotoxicity inventory. The handling of objects with Am+Cm entails the significant increase of penetrating radiation sources (neutron and γ) whatever mixed scenario is envisioned; the PWR and FR scenario involving the recycling of Am + Cm in the form of targets results in the lowest flow. In the light of these outcomes, the detailed studies has allowed to design a target sub assembly with a high fission rate (90%) and define a drawing up of reprocessing diagram with the plant head, the minor actinide separation processes (PUREX, DIAMEX and SANEX). Some technological difficulties appear in manipulating curium, principally in manufacturing where the wet process ('sol-gel') is not acquired for (Am+Cm). (author)

  12. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  13. Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

    2018-04-29

    This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

  14. The impact of reorienting cone-beam computed tomographic images in varied head positions on the coordinates of anatomical landmarks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jae Hun; Jeong, Ho Gul; Hwang, Jae Joon; Lee, Jung Hee; Han, Sang Sun [Dept. of Oral and Maxillofacial Radiology, Yonsei University, College of Dentistry, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    The aim of this study was to compare the coordinates of anatomical landmarks on cone-beam computed tomographic (CBCT) images in varied head positions before and after reorientation using image analysis software. CBCT images were taken in a normal position and four varied head positions using a dry skull marked with 3 points where gutta percha was fixed. In each of the five radiographic images, reference points were set, 20 anatomical landmarks were identified, and each set of coordinates was calculated. Coordinates in the images from the normally positioned head were compared with those in the images obtained from varied head positions using statistical methods. Post-reorientation coordinates calculated using a three-dimensional image analysis program were also compared to the reference coordinates. In the original images, statistically significant differences were found between coordinates in the normal-position and varied-position images. However, post-reorientation, no statistically significant differences were found between coordinates in the normal-position and varied-position images. The changes in head position impacted the coordinates of the anatomical landmarks in three-dimensional images. However, reorientation using image analysis software allowed accurate superimposition onto the reference positions.

  15. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  16. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  17. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  18. Predicting brain acceleration during heading of soccer ball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Zahari; Hasnun Arif Hassan, Mohd; Azri Aris, Mohd; Anuar, Zulfika

    2013-12-01

    There has been a long debate whether purposeful heading could cause harm to the brain. Studies have shown that repetitive heading could lead to degeneration of brain cells, which is similarly found in patients with mild traumatic brain injury. A two-degree of freedom linear mathematical model was developed to study the impact of soccer ball to the brain during ball-to-head impact in soccer. From the model, the acceleration of the brain upon impact can be obtained. The model is a mass-spring-damper system, in which the skull is modelled as a mass and the neck is modelled as a spring-damper system. The brain is a mass with suspension characteristics that are also defined by a spring and a damper. The model was validated by experiment, in which a ball was dropped from different heights onto an instrumented dummy skull. The validation shows that the results obtained from the model are in a good agreement with the brain acceleration measured from the experiment. This findings show that a simple linear mathematical model can be useful in giving a preliminary insight on what human brain endures during a ball-to-head impact.

  19. Financial impact estimate for radioinduced cancer treatment following RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Gabriel F.Q. da; Andrade, Edson R. de; Rebello, Wilson F.; Araujo, Olga M.O., E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    This study aims to propose a methodology to estimate the possible financial impact of cancer development and treatment over general public as consequence of a radiological event. Asymmetric threats involving radioactive materials and its consequences are being studied by some groups worldwide but without using the concept of methodology of convergence. This concept is based on combining single platforms into a package in order to effectively support the decision-making process during an emergency. A Radiological Dispersive Device (RDD) can be built of small amounts of explosive and radioactive material which are packed together. A fictional scenario was modeled using cesium-137. The venue is the Athletes Park, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro which will host large events such as Olympics .The RDD explosion was modeled using the HotSpot Health Physics Codes 3.0, which provided radioactive isodoses over the affected location with thresholds in agreement with those recommended by Brazilian National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN). Also included in the results, Hotspot simulated the contaminated area and, the total effective dose for individuals. Estimative about excess relative risk (ERR) were performed by using Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation V (BEIR V) report and TECDOC-870 (IAEA - Methods for Estimating the Probability of Cancer from Occupation Radiation Exposure). Leukemia was considered as morbidity for this study due to its short period of latency. The Total Body Irradiation was considered as a treatment and the financial impact was roughly estimated about coasts excluding logistical issues which should be calculated for each specific demand in further studies. (author)

  20. Financial impact estimate for radioinduced cancer treatment following RDD scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Gabriel F.Q. da; Andrade, Edson R. de; Rebello, Wilson F.; Araujo, Olga M.O.

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to propose a methodology to estimate the possible financial impact of cancer development and treatment over general public as consequence of a radiological event. Asymmetric threats involving radioactive materials and its consequences are being studied by some groups worldwide but without using the concept of methodology of convergence. This concept is based on combining single platforms into a package in order to effectively support the decision-making process during an emergency. A Radiological Dispersive Device (RDD) can be built of small amounts of explosive and radioactive material which are packed together. A fictional scenario was modeled using cesium-137. The venue is the Athletes Park, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro which will host large events such as Olympics .The RDD explosion was modeled using the HotSpot Health Physics Codes 3.0, which provided radioactive isodoses over the affected location with thresholds in agreement with those recommended by Brazilian National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN). Also included in the results, Hotspot simulated the contaminated area and, the total effective dose for individuals. Estimative about excess relative risk (ERR) were performed by using Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation V (BEIR V) report and TECDOC-870 (IAEA - Methods for Estimating the Probability of Cancer from Occupation Radiation Exposure). Leukemia was considered as morbidity for this study due to its short period of latency. The Total Body Irradiation was considered as a treatment and the financial impact was roughly estimated about coasts excluding logistical issues which should be calculated for each specific demand in further studies. (author)

  1. The value of superpower-submitted INDCs in cooperative and non-cooperative action scenarios: economic impact, dynamic risk, and temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustin, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    As the 2015 Paris climate talks near, policy discussions are focused on "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) submitted in advance of the discussions. As the major global emitters - specifically the United States and China - have already submitted their INDCs, we have a point of comparison for evaluating the relative potential impacts of the proposed targets. By applying integrated assessment models to robust, publicly available data sets,we aim to evaluate the interplay between climate change and economic development, comment on emissions reduction scenarios in cooperative and non-cooperative situations, and assess the dynamic risks of multiple regional emissions scenarios. We use both the RICE model and the C-ROADS model to examine alternative regional outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages,under different reduction scenarios, including a scenario where geo-engineering plays a prominent role. These simulators allow us to vary emissions, population, and economic levels in China and the United States specifically to comment on the international climate risk impact of actors working jointly - or not - toward a global climate goal. In a complementary piece of analysis we seek to understand the value judgments, trade-offs, and regional policies that would lead to favorable climate finance flows. To reach an international sample of industry decision-makers, we propose a novel application of a standard discrete-choice survey methodology. A conjoint analysis requires a participant to chose between combinations of attributes and identify trade-offs while allowing the researcher to determine the relative importance of each individual attribute by mathematically assessing the impact each attribute could have on total item utility. As climate policy negotiations will consist of allocation of scarce resources and rejection of certain attributes, a conjoint analysis is an ideal tool for evaluating policy outcomes. This research program seeks to

  2. Lower head integrity under steam explosion loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Theofanous, T.G.; Yuen, W.W.; Angelini, S.; Freeman, K.; Chen, X.; Salmassi, T. [Center for Risk Studies and Safety, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Sienicki, J.J.

    1998-01-01

    Lower head integrity under steam explosion loads in an AP600-like reactor design is considered. The assessment is the second part of an evaluation of the in-vessel retention idea as a severe accident management concept, the first part (DOE/ID-10460) dealing with thermal loads. The assessment is conducted in terms of the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM), and includes the comprehensive evaluation of all relevant severe accident scenarios, melt conditions and timing of release from the core region, fully 3D mixing and explosion wave dynamics, and lower head fragility under local, dynamic loading. All of these factors and brought together in a ROAAM Probabilistic Framework to evaluate failure likelihood. The conclusion is that failure is `physically unreasonable`. (author)

  3. Multigenerational Head Start Participation: An Unexpected Marker of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chor, Elise

    2018-01-01

    One-quarter of the Head Start population has a mother who participated in the program as a child. This study uses experimental Head Start Impact Study (HSIS) data on 3- and 4-year-olds (N = 2,849) to describe multigenerational Head Start families and their program experiences. In sharp contrast to full-sample HSIS findings, Head Start has large,…

  4. Developing a CBA Methodology for the Scenario-Based Land-Use Impact Assessment of Proposed Rail Investments in the Leipzig Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brndan; Petrov, Laura Oana

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a methodological approach to be utilised for the evaluation of transport-land-use impacts of rapid rail investments in the Leipzig Region with the potential for this approach to be used for other European regions. Various land development scenarios are generated from the MOLAN...

  5. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon

    2014-01-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO 2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

  6. Does Head Start differentially benefit children with risks targeted by the program's service model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Elizabeth B; Farkas, George; Duncan, Greg J

    Data from the Head Start Impact Study ( N = 3540) were used to test for differential benefits of Head Start after one program year and after kindergarten on pre-academic and behavior outcomes for children at risk in the domains targeted by the program's comprehensive services. Although random assignment to Head Start produced positive treatment main effects on children's pre-academic skills and behavior problems, residualized growth models showed that random assignment to Head Start did not differentially benefit the pre-academic skills of children with risk factors targeted by the Head Start service model. The models showed detrimental impacts of Head Start for maternal-reported behavior problems of high-risk children, but slightly more positive impacts for teacher-reported behavior. Policy implications for Head Start are discussed.

  7. Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

    2018-09-01

    To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

  8. Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, Jens C.; Sonnenborg, Torben; Butts, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results similar...... to surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for projections of well field...... climate-hydrology models....

  9. Survival of patients with head and neck cancer. Impact of physical status and comorbidities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadat, F. [Friedrich Alexander Univ., Erlangen (Germany). Clinic of Radiotherapy; Wienke, A. [Martin Luther Univ. Halle-Wittenberg, Halle/Saale (Germany). Inst. of Medical Epidemiology; Dunst, J. [Schleswig-Holstein Univ., Luebeck (Germany). Clinic of Radiotherapy; Kuhnt, T. [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology

    2012-01-15

    Prognostic factors (e.g., gender, tumor stage, and hypoxia) have an impact on survival in patients with head and neck cancer. Thus, the impact of physical status and comorbidities on treatment decision and survival were evaluated. Patients and methods A total of 169 primary, inoperable patients with squamous cell cancer of the head and neck were retrospectively investigated. Patients were treated with hyperfractionated accelerated radio(chemo)therapy (HARcT) or hypofractionated radio(chemo)therapy (HypoRcT). Depending on the individual patient's situation (Karnofsky Performance Index, KPI), treatment for patients with a KPI of 80-100% was generally radiochemotherapy and for patients with a KPI {<=} 70% treatment was radiotherapy alone. In addition, all comorbidities were evaluated. Uni- and multivariate proportional hazards model were used, and overall survival (OS) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results Treatment consisted of HARcT for 76 patients (45%), HART for 28 patients (17%), HypoRcT for 14 patients(8%), and HypoRT for 51 patients (30%). Of the patients, 107 patients (63%) presented with a KPI of 80-100%. OS (20%) was significantly better for patients with a KPI of 80-100%, while the OS for patients with a KPI {<=} 70% was 8% (p < 0.001). Good KPI, total irradiation dose (> 70 Gy), and chemotherapy were significant prognostic factors for better OS. Conclusion Our retrospective analysis shows that performance status with dependency on comorbidities was an independent risk factor for OS. (orig.)

  10. Survival of patients with head and neck cancer. Impact of physical status and comorbidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadat, F; Wienke, A; Dunst, J; Kuhnt, T

    2012-01-01

    Prognostic factors (e.g., gender, tumor stage, and hypoxia) have an impact on survival in patients with head and neck cancer. Thus, the impact of physical status and comorbidities on treatment decision and survival were evaluated. A total of 169 primary, inoperable patients with squamous cell cancer of the head and neck were retrospectively investigated. Patients were treated with hyperfractionated accelerated radio(chemo)therapy (HARcT) or hypofractionated radio(chemo)therapy (HypoRcT). Depending on the individual patient's situation (Karnofsky Performance Index, KPI), treatment for patients with a KPI of 80-100% was generally radiochemotherapy and for patients with a KPI ≤ 70% treatment was radiotherapy alone. In addition, all comorbidities were evaluated. Uni- and multivariate proportional hazards model were used, and overall survival (OS) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Treatment consisted of HARcT for 76 patients (45%), HART for 28 patients (17%), HypoRcT for 14 patients(8%), and HypoRT for 51 patients (30%). Of the patients, 107 patients (63%) presented with a KPI of 80-100%. OS (20%) was significantly better for patients with a KPI of 80-100%, while the OS for patients with a KPI ≤ 70% was 8% (p KPI, total irradiation dose (> 70 Gy), and chemotherapy were significant prognostic factors for better OS. Our retrospective analysis shows that performance status with dependency on comorbidities was an independent risk factor for OS.

  11. Survival of patients with head and neck cancer. Impact of physical status and comorbidities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadat, F.; Wienke, A.; Dunst, J.; Kuhnt, T.

    2012-01-01

    Prognostic factors (e.g., gender, tumor stage, and hypoxia) have an impact on survival in patients with head and neck cancer. Thus, the impact of physical status and comorbidities on treatment decision and survival were evaluated. Patients and methods A total of 169 primary, inoperable patients with squamous cell cancer of the head and neck were retrospectively investigated. Patients were treated with hyperfractionated accelerated radio(chemo)therapy (HARcT) or hypofractionated radio(chemo)therapy (HypoRcT). Depending on the individual patient's situation (Karnofsky Performance Index, KPI), treatment for patients with a KPI of 80-100% was generally radiochemotherapy and for patients with a KPI ≤ 70% treatment was radiotherapy alone. In addition, all comorbidities were evaluated. Uni- and multivariate proportional hazards model were used, and overall survival (OS) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results Treatment consisted of HARcT for 76 patients (45%), HART for 28 patients (17%), HypoRcT for 14 patients(8%), and HypoRT for 51 patients (30%). Of the patients, 107 patients (63%) presented with a KPI of 80-100%. OS (20%) was significantly better for patients with a KPI of 80-100%, while the OS for patients with a KPI ≤ 70% was 8% (p 70 Gy), and chemotherapy were significant prognostic factors for better OS. Conclusion Our retrospective analysis shows that performance status with dependency on comorbidities was an independent risk factor for OS. (orig.)

  12. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  13. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

  14. Validation and calibration of HeadCount, a self-report measure for quantifying heading exposure in soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catenaccio, E; Caccese, J; Wakschlag, N; Fleysher, R; Kim, N; Kim, M; Buckley, T A; Stewart, W F; Lipton, R B; Kaminski, T; Lipton, M L

    2016-01-01

    The long-term effects of repetitive head impacts due to heading are an area of increasing concern, and exposure must be accurately measured; however, the validity of self-report of cumulative soccer heading is not known. In order to validate HeadCount, a 2-week recall questionnaire, the number of player-reported headers was compared to the number of headers observed by trained raters for a men's and a women's collegiate soccer teams during an entire season of competitive play using Spearman's correlations and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), and calibrated using a generalized estimating equation. The average Spearman's rho was 0.85 for men and 0.79 for women. The average ICC was 0.75 in men and 0.38 in women. The calibration analysis demonstrated that men tend to report heading accurately while women tend to overestimate. HeadCount is a valid instrument for tracking heading behaviour, but may have to be calibrated in women.

  15. Scenarios of 14C releases from the World Nuclear Power Industry from 1975 to 2020 and the estimated radiological impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Till, J.E.

    1978-01-01

    This article presents an assessment of the radiation dose to the world population and the associated potential health effects from three scenarios of 14 C releases by the nuclear industry between 1975 and 2020. Measures of health impact are derived from source terms through the use of a multicompartment model of the global carbon cycle, dose-rate factors based on 14 C specific activity in various organs of man, and health-effect incidence factors recently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The three scenarios for worldwide 14 C releases considered are (1) a pessimistic scenario in which all the 14 C projected to be produced in fuel cycles is released (2) an optimistic scenario that assumes a decontamination factor of 100 for fuel reprocessing, and (3) an intermediate scenario that simulates a phased improvement in the effluent treatment technology at reprocessing plants. The estimates of cumulative potential health effects based on integration over infinite time (effectively 46,000 years or about 8 half-lives of 14 C) are as follows: 110,000 cancers and 75,000 genetic effects from the pessimistic scenario; 21,000 cancers and 14,000 genetic effects from the optimistic scenario; 22,000 cancers and 15,000 genetic effects from the intermediate scenario; 100,000 cancers and 68,000 genetic effects from the 14 C formed in nature between 1975 and 2020; and 380,000 cancers and 250,000 genetic effects from the 14 C formed by the detonation of nuclear explosives from 1945 to 1974. Comparable effects from the naturally formed 14 C in steady state in the environment, also integrated over 46,000 years, are approximately 66 million cancers and 43 million genetic effects. These estimates are based on a world population that is assumed to remain stationary at 12.2 billion after 2075

  16. Intracranial Pressure Response to Non-Penetrating Ballistic Impact: An Experimental Study Using a Pig Physical Head Model and Live Pigs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hai; Kang, Jianyi; Chen, Jing; Li, Guanhua; Li, Xiaoxia; Wang, Jianmin

    2012-01-01

    This study was conducted to characterize the intracranial pressure response to non-penetrating ballistic impact using a "scalp-skull-brain" pig physical head model and live pigs. Forty-eight ballistic tests targeting the physical head model and anesthetized pigs protected by aramid plates were conducted with standard 9 mm bullets at low (279-297 m/s), moderate (350-372 m/s), and high (409-436 m/s) velocities. Intracranial pressure responses were recorded with pressure sensors embedded in similar brain locations in the physical head model and the anesthetized pigs. Three parameters of intracranial pressure were determined from the measured data: intracranial maximum pressure (Pmax), intracranial maximum pressure impulse (PImax), and the duration of the first positive phase (PPD). The intracranial pressure waves exhibited blast-like characteristics for both the physical model and l live pigs. Of all three parameters, Pmax is most sensitive to impact velocity, with means of 126 kPa (219 kPa), 178 kPa (474 kPa), and 241 kPa (751 kPa) for the physical model (live pigs) for low, moderate, and high impact velocities, respectively. The mean PPD becomes increasingly short as the impact velocity increases, whereas PImax shows the opposite trend. Although the pressure parameters of the physical model were much lower than those of the live pigs, good correlations between the physical model and the live pigs for the three pressure parameters, especially Pmax, were found using linear regression. This investigation suggests that Pmax is a preferred parameter for predicting the severity of the brain injury resulting from behind armor blunt trauma (BABT). PMID:23055817

  17. Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

  18. Relative brain displacement and deformation during constrained mild frontal head impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Y; Abney, T M; Okamoto, R J; Pless, R B; Genin, G M; Bayly, P V

    2010-12-06

    This study describes the measurement of fields of relative displacement between the brain and the skull in vivo by tagged magnetic resonance imaging and digital image analysis. Motion of the brain relative to the skull occurs during normal activity, but if the head undergoes high accelerations, the resulting large and rapid deformation of neuronal and axonal tissue can lead to long-term disability or death. Mathematical modelling and computer simulation of acceleration-induced traumatic brain injury promise to illuminate the mechanisms of axonal and neuronal pathology, but numerical studies require knowledge of boundary conditions at the brain-skull interface, material properties and experimental data for validation. The current study provides a dense set of displacement measurements in the human brain during mild frontal skull impact constrained to the sagittal plane. Although head motion is dominated by translation, these data show that the brain rotates relative to the skull. For these mild events, characterized by linear decelerations near 1.5g (g = 9.81 m s⁻²) and angular accelerations of 120-140 rad s⁻², relative brain-skull displacements of 2-3 mm are typical; regions of smaller displacements reflect the tethering effects of brain-skull connections. Strain fields exhibit significant areas with maximal principal strains of 5 per cent or greater. These displacement and strain fields illuminate the skull-brain boundary conditions, and can be used to validate simulations of brain biomechanics.

  19. Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2014-12-01

    Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

  20. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  1. Brain tissue strains vary with head impact location: A possible explanation for increased concussion risk in struck versus striking football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkin, Benjamin S; Gabler, Lee F; Panzer, Matthew B; Siegmund, Gunter P

    2018-03-29

    On-field football helmet impacts over a large range of severities have caused concussions in some players but not in other players. One possible explanation for this variability is the struck player's helmet impact location. We examined the effect of impact location on regional brain tissue strain when input energy was held constant. Laboratory impacts were performed at 12 locations distributed over the helmet and the resulting head kinematics were simulated in two finite element models of the brain: the Simulated Injury Monitor and the Global Human Body Model Consortium brain model. Peak kinematics, injury metrics and brain strain varied significantly with impact location. Differences in impact location explained 33 to 37% of the total variance in brain strain for the whole brain and cerebrum, considerably more than the variance explained by impact location for the peak resultant head kinematics (8 to 23%) and slightly more than half of the variance explained by the difference in closing speed (57 to 61%). Both finite element models generated similar strain results, with minor variations for impacts that generated multi-axial rotations, larger variations in brainstem strains for some impact locations and a small bias for the cerebellum. Based on this experimental and computational simulation study, impact location on the football helmet has a large effect on regional brain tissue strain. We also found that the lowest strains consistently occurred in impacts to the crown and forehead, helmet locations commonly associated with the striking player. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Testing Realistic Disaster Scenarios for Space Weather: The Economic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, M.; Oughton, E. J.; Hapgood, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    The socio-economic impacts of space weather have been under-researched, despite this threat featuring on the UK's National Risk Register. In this paper, a range of Realistic Disaster Scenarios due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure are tested. We use regional Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) studies to identify areas in the UK high-voltage power system deemed to be high-risk. The potential level of disruption arising from a large geomagnetic disturbance in these `hot spots' on local economic activity is explored. Electricity is a necessary factor of production without which businesses cannot operate, so even short term power loss can cause significant loss of value. We utilise a spatially disaggregated approach that focuses on quantifying employment disruption by industrial sector, and relating this to direct Gross Value Added loss. We then aggregate this direct loss into a set of shocks to undertake macroeconomic modelling of different scenarios, to obtain the total economic impact which includes both direct and indirect supply chain disruption effects. These results are reported for a range of temporal periods, with the minimum increment being a one-hour blackout. This work furthers our understanding of the economic impacts of space weather, and can inform future reviews of the UK's National Risk Register. The key contribution of the paper is that the results can be used in the future cost-benefit analysis of investment in space weather forecasting.

  3. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

  4. Land Use Scenarios for Greater Copenhagen: Modelling the Impact of the Fingerplan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... short period of time. The set-up and the results were discussed with a few experts from the Danish Ministry of the Environment and its value as discussion input recognized. The approach offers a lot of possibilities to discuss urban growth and spatial planning policies, even in a country with a strong...

  5. SU-C-19A-07: Influence of Immobilization On Plan Robustness in the Treatment of Head and Neck Cancer with IMPT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bues, M; Anand, A; Liu, W; Shen, J; Keole, S; Patel, S; Morse, B; Kruse, J

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: We evaluated the effect of interposing immobilization devices into the beam's path on the robustness of a head and neck plan. Methods: An anthropomorphic head phantom was placed into a preliminary prototype of a specialized head and neck immobilization device for proton beam therapy. The device consists of a hard low density shell, a custom mold insert, and thermoplastic mask to immobilize the patient's head in the shell. This device was provided by CIVCO Medical Solutions for the purpose of evaluation of suitability for proton beam therapy. See Figure 1. Two pairs of treatment plans were generated. The first plan in each pair was a reference plan including only the anthropomorphic phantom, and the second plan in each pair included the immobilization device. In all other respects the plans within the pair were identical. Results: In the case of the simple plan the degradation of plan robustness was found to be clinically insignificant. In this case, target coverage in the worst case scenario was reduced from 95% of the target volume receiving 96.5% of prescription dose to 95% of the target volume receiving 96.3% of prescription dose by introducing the immobilization device. In the case of the complex plan, target coverage of the boost volume in the worst case scenario was reduced from 95% of the boost target volume receiving 97% of prescription dose to 95% of the boost target volume receiving 83% of prescription dose by introducing the immobilization device. See Figure 2. Conclusion: Immobilization devices may have a deleterious effect on plan robustness. Evaluation of the preliminary prototype revealed a variable impact on the plan robustness depending of the complexity of the case. Brian Morse is an employee of CIVCO Medical Solutions

  6. Evaluation of a weather generator-based method for statistically downscaling non-stationary climate scenarios for impact assessment at a point scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...

  7. Impact of Transmutation Scenarios on Fuel Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saturnin, A.; Duret, B.; Allou, A.; Jasserand, F.; Fillastre, E.; Giffard, F.X.; Chabert, C.; Caron-Charles, M.; Garzenne, C.; Laugier, F.

    2015-01-01

    Minor actinides transmutation scenarios have been studied in the frame of the French Sustainable Radioactive Waste Management Act of 28 June 2006. Transmutation scenarios supposed the introduction of a sodium-cooled fast reactor fleet using homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes for the minor actinides. Americium, neptunium and curium (MA) or americium alone (Am) can be transmuted together in a homogeneous way embedded in FR-MOX fuel or incorporated in MA or Am-Bearing radial Blankets (MABB or AmBB). MA transmutation in Accelerator Driven System has also been studied while plutonium is being recycled in SFR. Assessments and comparisons of these advanced cycles have been performed considering technical and economic criteria. Transportation needs for fresh and used transmutation fuels is one of these criteria. Transmutation fuels have specific characteristics in terms of thermal load and neutron emissions. Thermal, radiation and criticality constraints have been taken into account in this study to suggest cask concepts for routine conditions of transport, to estimate the number of assemblies to be transported in a cask and the number of annual transports. Comparison with the no transmutation option, i.e. management of uranium and plutonium in SFRs, is also presented. Regarding these matters, no high difficulties appear for assemblies with limited content of Am (homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes). When fuels contain curium, technical transport uncertainties increase because of the important heat release requiring dividing fresh fuels and technological innovations development (MABB and ADS). (authors)

  8. Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

    2017-01-01

    The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

  9. Dynamic Response and Residual Helmet Liner Crush Using Cadaver Heads and Standard Headforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonin, S J; Luck, J F; Bass, C R; Gardiner, J C; Onar-Thomas, A; Asfour, S S; Siegmund, G P

    2017-03-01

    Biomechanical headforms are used for helmet certification testing and reconstructing helmeted head impacts; however, their biofidelity and direct applicability to human head and helmet responses remain unclear. Dynamic responses of cadaver heads and three headforms and residual foam liner deformations were compared during motorcycle helmet impacts. Instrumented, helmeted heads/headforms were dropped onto the forehead region against an instrumented flat anvil at 75, 150, and 195 J. Helmets were CT scanned to quantify maximum liner crush depth and crush volume. General linear models were used to quantify the effect of head type and impact energy on linear acceleration, head injury criterion (HIC), force, maximum liner crush depth, and liner crush volume and regression models were used to quantify the relationship between acceleration and both maximum crush depth and crush volume. The cadaver heads generated larger peak accelerations than all three headforms, larger HICs than the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), larger forces than the Hybrid III and ISO, larger maximum crush depth than the ISO, and larger crush volumes than the DOT. These significant differences between the cadaver heads and headforms need to be accounted for when attempting to estimate an impact exposure using a helmet's residual crush depth or volume.

  10. Protection of children restrained in child safety seats in side impact crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbogast, Kristy B; Locey, Caitlin M; Zonfrillo, Mark R; Maltese, Matthew R

    2010-10-01

    The performance of child restraint systems (CRS) in side impact motor vehicle crashes has been under study due to the injury and fatality burden of these events. Although previous research has quantified injury risk or described injured body regions, safety advances require an understanding of injury causation. Therefore, the objective was to delineate injury causation scenarios for CRS-restrained children in side impacts and document probable contact points in the vehicle interior. Two in-depth crash investigation databases, the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network and the Partners for Child Passenger Safety Study, were queried for rear-seated, CRS-restrained children in side impact crashes who sustained Abbreviated Injury Scale 2+ injury. These cases were reviewed by a multidisciplinary team of physicians and engineers to describe injury patterns, injury causation, and vehicle components that contributed to the injuries. Forty-one occupants (average age, 2.6 years) met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-four were near side to the crash, 7 were far side, and 10 were center seated. The most common injuries were to the skull and brain with an increasing proportion of skull fracture as age increased. Head and spine injuries without evidence of head contact were rare but present. All thoracic injuries were lung contusions and no rib fractures occurred. Near-side head and face contacts points were along the rear vertical plane of the window and the horizontal plane of the window sill. Head and face contact points for center- and far-side occupants were along the edges of the front seat back and front seat head restraint. Head injuries are the target for injury prevention for children in CRS in side impact crashes. Most of these injuries are due to the contact; for near-side occupants, contact with the CRS structure and the door interior, for far- or center-seated occupants, contact with the front seat back. These data are useful in developing both educational and

  11. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  12. Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

    2006-04-15

    This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

  13. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  14. Oncogenic impact of human papilloma virus in head and neck cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Heffernan, C B

    2012-02-01

    There is considerable debate within the literature about the significance of human papilloma virus in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, and its potential influence on the prevention, diagnosis, grading, treatment and prognosis of these cancers. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption have traditionally been cited as the main risk factors for head and neck cancers. However, human papilloma virus, normally associated with cervical and other genital carcinomas, has emerged as a possible key aetiological factor in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, especially oropharyngeal cancers. These cancers pose a significant financial burden on health resources and are increasing in incidence. The recent introduction of vaccines targeted against human papilloma virus types 16 and 18, to prevent cervical cancer, has highlighted the need for ongoing research into the importance of human papilloma virus in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

  15. Capabilities of Helmets for Preventing Head Injuries Induced by Ballistic Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.V. Balandin

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The limiting performance of ballistically loaded helmets designed to reduce head injuries is studied analytically. The projectile does not penetrate the helmet. This analysis evaluates the absolute minimum of the peak displacement of the helmet shell relative to the head, provided that criteria measuring the severity of head injuries lie within prescribed limits. Rather than optimize a specific design configuration, e.g. a viscoelastic foam liner, characteristics of a time-dependent force representing the helmet liner are calculated. The formulation reduces the limiting performance analysis to an optimal control problem.

  16. An investigation of the effects of sports-related concussion in youth using functional magnetic resonance imaging and the head impact telemetry system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keightley, Michelle; Green, Stephanie; Reed, Nick; Agnihotri, Sabrina; Wilkinson, Amy; Lobaugh, Nancy

    2011-01-12

    One of the most commonly reported injuries in children who participate in sports is concussion or mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Children and youth involved in organized sports such as competitive hockey are nearly six times more likely to suffer a severe concussion compared to children involved in other leisure physical activities. While the most common cognitive sequelae of mTBI appear similar for children and adults, the recovery profile and breadth of consequences in children remains largely unknown, as does the influence of pre-injury characteristics (e.g. gender) and injury details (e.g. magnitude and direction of impact) on long-term outcomes. Competitive sports, such as hockey, allow the rare opportunity to utilize a pre-post design to obtain pre-injury data before concussion occurs on youth characteristics and functioning and to relate this to outcome following injury. Our primary goals are to refine pediatric concussion diagnosis and management based on research evidence that is specific to children and youth. To do this we use new, multi-modal and integrative approaches that will: 1. Evaluate the immediate effects of head trauma in youth. 2. Monitor the resolution of post-concussion symptoms (PCS) and cognitive performance during recovery. 3. Utilize new methods to verify brain injury and recovery. To achieve our goals, we have implemented the Head Impact Telemetry (HIT) System. (Simbex; Lebanon, NH, USA). This system equips commercially available Easton S9 hockey helmets (Easton-Bell Sports; Van Nuys, CA, USA) with single-axis accelerometers designed to measure real-time head accelerations during contact sport participation. By using telemetric technology, the magnitude of acceleration and location of all head impacts during sport participation can be objectively detected and recorded. We also use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to localize and assess changes in neural activity specifically in the medial temporal and frontal lobes

  17. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  18. Economic and Ecological Consequences of Four European Land Use Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eickhout, B.; Meijl, van H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Rheenen, van T.

    2007-01-01

    The impact of globalization on trade, production and land use is key to the Doha development round. This paper deals with the complex interaction between agricultural trade, production, land-use change and environmental consequences on the basis of four different scenarios. In these scenarios, major

  19. Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

  20. Nutrition impact symptoms and associated outcomes in post-chemoradiotherapy head and neck cancer survivors: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowder, Sylvia L; Douglas, Katherine G; Yanina Pepino, M; Sarma, Kalika P; Arthur, Anna E

    2018-03-20

    It is estimated that more than 90% of head and neck cancer (HNC) survivors who underwent chemoradiotherapy experience one or more nutrition impact symptoms (NIS) in the months or years thereafter. Despite the high prevalence, there is limited research addressing long-term impact of NIS on outcomes such as nutrition and quality of life in HNC survivors treated with chemoradiotherapy. To conduct a systematic review of the literature pertaining to the presence of nutrition impact symptoms and their associated outcomes in post-chemoradiotherapy head and neck cancer survivors. A systematic review was conducted across three databases according to PRISMA guidelines and used to identify current literature regarding NIS in HNC survivors. A keyword search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from 2007 to 2017. Studies that met all of the following criteria were included in the review: (1) studies must include human subjects with a HNC diagnosis; (2) study participants must have received chemoradiotherapy; (3) study participants must have been post-treatment for a minimum of 3 months at the time of data collection; (4) full-text articles must have appeared in peer-reviewed journals; (5) papers must have been published in English; (6) studies must be quantitative in nature; (7) studies must have reported at least one NIS; and (8) studies must address at least one of the following outcomes: nutrition, functional status, or quality of life. Two independent reviewers assessed study quality using a predefined set of criteria. A systematic search yielded 1119 papers, of which 15 met the inclusion criteria. The study reviewed existing evidence of NIS in a variety of HNC survivors ranging from 3 months to greater than 10 years post-chemoradiotherapy treatment. Eight hundred forty-nine study participants were included in the review. Of the 15 studies, 10 were designed as prospective cohort studies, 4 were cross-sectional studies, and 1 was a retrospective cohort

  1. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  2. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

  3. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  4. The importance of meteorology in the environmental impacts assessment of nuclear power plants: scenarios studies using geographic information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leao, I.L.B.; Biagio, R.M.S.; Costa, E.M.; Alves, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant (CNAAA) is located in a very complex region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. The environmental impact caused by the normal operation of such installation can be better evaluated by using an integrated approach, in which a geographical information system plays a very important role. In this study, environmental scenarios are integrated with some extreme and representative meteorological situations. (author)

  5. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  6. Cost utility, budget impact, and scenario analysis of racecadotril in addition to oral rehydration for acute diarrhea in children in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rautenberg TA

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Tamlyn Anne Rautenberg,1,2 Ute Zerwes,3 Way Seah Lee4 1IGES Institut GmbH, Berlin, Germany; 2Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division (HEARD, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; 3Assessment in Medicine GmbH, Lörrach, Germany; 4Department of Pediatrics, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Objective: To perform cost utility (CU and budget impact (BI analyses augmented by scenario analyses of critical model structure components to evaluate racecadotril as adjuvant to oral rehydration solution (ORS for children under 5 years with acute diarrhea in Malaysia.Methods: A CU model was adapted to evaluate racecadotril plus ORS vs ORS alone for acute diarrhea in children younger than 5 years from a Malaysian public payer’s perspective. A bespoke BI analysis was undertaken in addition to detailed scenario analyses with respect to critical model structure components.Results: According to the CU model, the intervention is less costly and more effective than comparator for the base case with a dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of –RM 1,272,833/quality-adjusted life year (USD –312,726/quality-adjusted life year in favor of the intervention. According to the BI analysis (assuming an increase of 5% market share per year for racecadotril+ORS for 5 years, the total cumulative incremental percentage reduction in health care expenditure for diarrhea in children is 0.136578%, resulting in a total potential cumulative cost savings of –RM 73,193,603 (USD –17,983,595 over a 5-year period. Results hold true across a range of plausible scenarios focused on critical model components.Conclusion: Adjuvant racecadotril vs ORS alone is potentially cost-effective from a Malaysian public payer perspective subject to the assumptions and limitations of the model. BI analysis shows that this translates into potential cost savings for the Malaysian public health care system. Results hold true at evidence-based base

  7. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-01-01

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money

  8. The role of technology in different framings of scenario-based simulation in nursing education and the impact on design for learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Jørnø, Rasmus Leth; Gundersen, Peter

    2013-01-01

    on the fidelity of the simulation and much more on the simulations ability to support guided discovery for the student. Secondly we would like to discuss the impact a change in design approach will have on the overall purpose of simulation training. Learning goals of scenarios remain embedded in the acquisition...

  9. The role of technology in different framing of scenario-based simulation in nursing education and the impact on design for learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Jørnø, Rasmus Leth Vergmann; Gundersen, Peter Bukovica

    2013-01-01

    on the fidelity of the simulation and much more on the simulations ability to support guided discovery for the student. Secondly we would like to discuss the impact a change in design approach will have on the overall purpose of simulation training. Learning goals of scenarios remain embedded in the acquisition...

  10. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  11. Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

    2007-01-01

    In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

  12. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  13. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  14. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  15. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-01-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  16. Sex Differences in Anthropometrics and Heading Kinematics Among Division I Soccer Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretzin, Abigail C; Mansell, Jamie L; Tierney, Ryan T; McDevitt, Jane K

    Soccer players head the ball repetitively throughout their careers; this is also a potential mechanism for a concussion. Although not all soccer headers result in a concussion, these subconcussive impacts may impart acceleration, deceleration, and rotational forces on the brain, leaving structural and functional deficits. Stronger neck musculature may reduce head-neck segment kinematics. The relationship between anthropometrics and soccer heading kinematics will not differ between sexes. The relationship between anthropometrics and soccer heading kinematics will not differ between ball speeds. Pilot, cross-sectional design. Level 3. Division I soccer athletes (5 male, 8 female) were assessed for head-neck anthropometric and neck strength measurements in 6 directions (ie, flexion, extension, right and left lateral flexions and rotations). Participants headed the ball 10 times (25 or 40 mph) while wearing an accelerometer secured to their head. Kinematic measurements (ie, linear acceleration and rotational velocity) were recorded at 2 ball speeds. Sex differences were observed in neck girth ( t = 5.09, P soccer heading kinematics for sex and ball speeds. Neck girth and neck strength are factors that may limit head impact kinematics.

  17. Evidence for Acute Electrophysiological and Cognitive Changes Following Routine Soccer Heading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas G. Di Virgilio

    2016-11-01

    Discussion: Sub-concussive head impacts routine in soccer heading are associated with immediate, measurable electrophysiological and cognitive impairments. Although these changes in brain function were transient, these effects may signal direct consequences of routine soccer heading on (long-term brain health which requires further study.

  18. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  19. Parental Book Reading and Social-Emotional Outcomes for Head Start Children in Foster Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyunghee; Lee, Jung-Sook

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the associations between parental book reading and social-emotional outcomes for Head Start children in foster care. Despite no main Head Start impact on parental book reading, subgroup effects were found. Foster parents in Head Start provided more book reading for children with disabilities but less for children with low preacademic scores. Head Start enhanced social-emotional outcomes for children in foster care. The positive impacts of Head Start on children's social-emotional outcomes were greater when parents read books frequently. Head Start should include more foster families and provided parenting skills to enhance social-emotional outcomes for children in foster care.

  20. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

  1. Development of a human head FE model for the impact analysis using VOXEL approach and simulation for the assessment on the focal brain injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Dai; Yuge, Kohei; Nishimoto, Tetsuya; Murakami, Shigeyuki; Takao, Hiroyuki

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a three-dimensional digital human-head model was developed and several dynamic analyses on the head trauma were conducted. This model was built up by the VOXEL approach using 433 slice CT images (512 x 512 pixels) and made of 1.22 million parallelepiped finite elements with 10 anatomical tissue properties such as scalp, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), skull, brain, dura mater and so on. The numerical analyses were conducted using a finite element code the authors have developed. The main features of the code are it is based on the explicit time integration method and it uses the one point integration method to evaluate the equivalent nodal forces with the hourglass control proposed by Flanagan and Belythcko and it utilizes the parallel computation with the Massage Passing Interface (MPI). In order to verify the developed model, the head impact experiment for a cadaver by Nahum et al. was simulated. The calculated results showed good agreement with experimental ones. A front and rear impact analyses were also performed investigate the relation between the impact direction and the positions of the high measurement of pressure and stresses in brain. The obtained results represent that brain injury has a closer relation with the Mises equivalent stress rather than the pressure. At this time, the large deformation of a frontal cranial base was observed in both frontal and occipital impact analyses. We expect that it induces the brain injury in a frontal lobe regardless of the impact positions. (author)

  2. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Does Head Start differentially benefit children with risks targeted by the program’s service model?☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Elizabeth B.; Farkas, George; Duncan, Greg J.

    2015-01-01

    Data from the Head Start Impact Study (N = 3540) were used to test for differential benefits of Head Start after one program year and after kindergarten on pre-academic and behavior outcomes for children at risk in the domains targeted by the program’s comprehensive services. Although random assignment to Head Start produced positive treatment main effects on children’s pre-academic skills and behavior problems, residualized growth models showed that random assignment to Head Start did not differentially benefit the pre-academic skills of children with risk factors targeted by the Head Start service model. The models showed detrimental impacts of Head Start for maternal-reported behavior problems of high-risk children, but slightly more positive impacts for teacher-reported behavior. Policy implications for Head Start are discussed. PMID:26379369

  4. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

    2011-12-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  5. Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers – a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pulido-Velazquez

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC and land use and land cover (LULC change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it, and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes and sea level rise (SLR. The proposed analysis is valuable for

  6. Injuries of the head from backface deformation of ballistic protective helmets under ballistic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafaels, Karin A; Cutcliffe, Hattie C; Salzar, Robert S; Davis, Martin; Boggess, Brian; Bush, Bryan; Harris, Robert; Rountree, Mark Steve; Sanderson, Ellory; Campman, Steven; Koch, Spencer; Dale Bass, Cameron R

    2015-01-01

    Modern ballistic helmets defeat penetrating bullets by energy transfer from the projectile to the helmet, producing helmet deformation. This deformation may cause severe injuries without completely perforating the helmet, termed "behind armor blunt trauma" (BABT). As helmets become lighter, the likelihood of larger helmet backface deformation under ballistic impact increases. To characterize the potential for BABT, seven postmortem human head/neck specimens wearing a ballistic protective helmet were exposed to nonperforating impact, using a 9 mm, full metal jacket, 124 grain bullet with velocities of 400-460 m/s. An increasing trend of injury severity was observed, ranging from simple linear fractures to combinations of linear and depressed fractures. Overall, the ability to identify skull fractures resulting from BABT can be used in forensic investigations. Our results demonstrate a high risk of skull fracture due to BABT and necessitate the prevention of BABT as a design factor in future generations of protective gear. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  7. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  8. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Daniel W; Lobell, David B; Sheffield, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century. (paper)

  9. Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

    2018-03-15

    Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

  10. Break location influence in pressure vessel SBLOCA scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Querol, Andrea; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo, E-mail: anquevi@upv.es, E-mail: sergalbe@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Instituto Universitario de Seguridad Industrial, Radiofísica y Medioambiental (ISIRYM), Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain)

    2017-07-01

    The inspections performed in Davis Besse and in the South Texas Project Unit-I reactors pointed out safety issues regarding the structural integrity of the Pressure Vessel (PV). In these inspections, two anomalies were found: a wall thinning and degradation in the PV upper head of the Davis Besse reactor and a small amount of residue around of two instrument-tube penetration nozzles located in the PV lower plenum of the South Texas Project Unit-I reactor. The evolution of these defects could have resulted in Small Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accidents (SBLOCA) if they had not been detected in time. In this frame, the OECD/NEA considered the necessity to simulate these accidental sequences in the OECD/NEA ROSA Project using the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). This work is focused in simulating different hypothetical accidental scenarios in the PV using the thermalhydraulic code TRACE5. These simulations allow studying the break localization influence in the transient and the effectiveness of the accident management (AM) actions considered mitigating the consequences of these hypothetical accidental scenarios. (author)

  11. Does aquatic foraging impact head shape evolution in snakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segall, Marion; Cornette, Raphaël; Fabre, Anne-Claire; Godoy-Diana, Ramiro; Herrel, Anthony

    2016-08-31

    Evolutionary trajectories are often biased by developmental and historical factors. However, environmental factors can also impose constraints on the evolutionary trajectories of organisms leading to convergence of morphology in similar ecological contexts. The physical properties of water impose strong constraints on aquatic feeding animals by generating pressure waves that can alert prey and potentially push them away from the mouth. These hydrodynamic constraints have resulted in the independent evolution of suction feeding in most groups of secondarily aquatic tetrapods. Despite the fact that snakes cannot use suction, they have invaded the aquatic milieu many times independently. Here, we test whether the aquatic environment has constrained head shape evolution in snakes and whether shape converges on that predicted by biomechanical models. To do so, we used three-dimensional geometric morphometrics and comparative, phylogenetically informed analyses on a large sample of aquatic snake species. Our results show that aquatic snakes partially conform to our predictions and have a narrower anterior part of the head and dorsally positioned eyes and nostrils. This morphology is observed, irrespective of the phylogenetic relationships among species, suggesting that the aquatic environment does indeed drive the evolution of head shape in snakes, thus biasing the evolutionary trajectory of this group of animals. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

    2012-07-01

    The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

  13. An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbadebo Oladosu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007 were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transition to advanced biofuels begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. All scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term benefits for the USA economy.

  14. Biomechanics of Heading a Soccer Ball: Implications for Player Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles F. Babbs

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available To better understand the risk and safety of heading a soccer ball, the author created a set of simple mathematical models based upon Newton�s second law of motion to describe the physics of heading. These models describe the player, the ball, the flight of the ball before impact, the motion of the head and ball during impact, and the effects of all of these upon the intensity and the duration of acceleration of the head. The calculated head accelerations were compared to those during presumably safe daily activities of jumping, dancing, and head nodding and also were related to established criteria for serious head injury from the motor vehicle crash literature. The results suggest heading is usually safe but occasionally dangerous, depending on key characteristics of both the player and the ball. Safety is greatly improved when players head the ball with greater effective body mass, which is determined by a player�s size, strength, and technique. Smaller youth players, because of their lesser body mass, are more at risk of potentially dangerous headers than are adults, even when using current youth size balls. Lower ball inflation pressure reduces risk of dangerous head accelerations. Lower pressure balls also have greater “touch” and “playability”, measured in terms of contact time and contact area between foot and ball during a kick. Focus on teaching proper technique, the re-design of age-appropriate balls for young players with reduced weight and inflation pressure, and avoidance of head contact with fast, rising balls kicked at close range can substantially reduce risk of subtle brain injury in players who head soccer balls.

  15. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    studies a framework that anchors the curriculum in game-based role-play scenarios and offers affordances for the learners to immerse themselves in the multiple perspectives of the roles. In this way of introducing problem based learning in immersive narrative environments, the learners are provided......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

  16. COMPARISON OF A HEAD MOUNTED IMPACT MEASUREMENT DEVICE TO THE HYBRID III ANTHROPOMORPHIC TESTING DEVICE IN A CONTROLLED LABORATORY SETTING.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schussler, Eric; Stark, David; Bolte, John H; Kang, Yun Seok; Onate, James A

    2017-08-01

    Reports estimate that 1.6 to 3.8 million cases of concussion occur in sports and recreation each year in the United States. Despite continued efforts to reduce the occurrence of concussion, the rate of diagnosis continues to increase. The mechanisms of concussion are thought to involve linear and rotational head accelerations and velocities. One method of quantifying the kinematics experienced during sport participation is to place measurement devices into the athlete's helmet or directly on the athlete's head. The purpose of this research to determine the accuracy of a head mounted device for measuring the head accelerations experienced by the wearer. This will be accomplished by identifying the error in Peak Linear Acceleration (PLA), Peak Rotational Acceleration (PRA) and Peak Rotational Velocity (PRV) of the device. Laboratory study. A helmeted Hybrid III 50th percentile male headform was impacted via a pneumatic ram from the front, side, rear, front oblique and rear oblique at speeds from 1.5 to 5 m/s. The X2 Biosystems xPatch® (Seattle, WA) sensor was placed on the headform's right side at the approximate location of the mastoid process. Measures of PLA, PRA, PRV from the xPatch ® and Hybrid III were analyzed for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Absolute and Relative Error (AE, RE). Seventy-six impacts were analyzed. All measures of correlation, fixed through the origin, were found to be strong: PLA R 2 =0.967 pstandard yet above the average error of testing devices in both PLA and PRA, but a low error in PRV. PLA measures from the xPatch® system demonstrated a high level of correlation with the PLA data from the Hybrid III mounted data collection system. 3.

  17. Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

  18. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan; Li, Xiangzhi; Zhaojie, Cui

    2010-11-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  20. Variability in environmental impacts of Brazilian soybean according to crop production and transport scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Vamilson Prudêncio; van der Werf, Hayo M G; Spies, Airton; Soares, Sebastião Roberto

    2010-09-01

    Soybean production and its supply chain are highly dependent on inputs such as land, fertilizer, fuel, machines, pesticides and electricity. The expansion of this crop in Brazil in recent decades has generated concerns about its environmental impacts. To assess these impacts, two representative chains supplying soybeans to Europe were identified: Center West (CW) and Southern (SO) Brazil. Each supply chain was analyzed using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. We considered different levels of use of chemical and organic fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, different distances for transportation of inputs and different yield levels. Because transportation contributed strongly to environmental impacts, a detailed study was performed to identify the routes used to transport soybeans to seaports. Additionally, we considered different levels of land occupation and land transformation to represent the impact of deforestation in the CW region. Environmental impacts were calculated for 1000 kg of soybean up to and including the delivery to Europe at the seaport in Rotterdam, at 13% humidity. Overall results showed that the impacts are greater for CW than for SO for all impact categories studied, including acidification (7.7 and 5.3 kg SO(2) eq., respectively), climate change (959 and 510 kg CO(2) eq.), cumulative energy demand (12,634 and 6,999 MJ) and terrestrial ecotoxicity (4.9 and 3.1 kg 1,4-DCB eq.), except eutrophication and land occupation. The same trend was observed for the crop-production stage. Efforts to reduce chemical fertilizers and diesel consumption can reduce CO(2) emissions. Although deforestation for crop production has decreased in recent years, the contribution of deforestation to climate change and cumulative energy demand remains significant. In the CW scenario deforestation contributed 29% to climate change and 20% to cumulative energy demand. Results also showed that although there are different transportation options in Brazil, the current

  1. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  2. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water manegement in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, Jacob Cornelis Jan

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for

  3. Modelling the impact of rural land use scenarios on water management: a FREEWAT approach to the Bakumivka catchment case study, Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykhailo Grodzynskyi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Bakumivka River’s catchment, Ukraine serves as a case study to the application of FREEWAT to the ground and surface water management. The main objective of the study is to find out the optimal spatial distribution of the water supplied to the farms by modifying the land cover pattern of the catchment. An integrated numerical model was developed to provide quantitative estimates of the water budget components. The model includes four model layers, representing the main hydrostratigraphic units, different types of boundary conditions assigned along the area’s boundaries, major components of the water balance introduced through source and sink layers. It was implemented through the FREEWAT software. Three water management scenarios were developed in order to compare different spatial patterns of land cover and distribution of water within the Bakumivka River’s basin. The scenarios represent continuum from market oriented pattern to environmentally sounding pattern of land cover. The objective of the modeling exercise is to obtain mass balances and maps representing three scenarios of water management. Each map shows distribution of the areas where the water balance is optimal, insufficient (dry or excessive (wet for vegetation (land cover of particular type.The simulation shows that changing spatial land cover pattern is an effective measure to reduce water supply to the farms, however it does not prevent water logging in the areas adjacent to the flood plains and drying on summer stress periods in lands of sandyloam soils. Irrigation should be excluded in the areas with sandy and sandyloam soils. The flood plain with peat bogs despite the high water head in spring and late summer stress periods should be irrigated to prevent peat fires. The intrusion of eco-corridors to the land cover pattern in the catchment is positive from ecological perspective, but could prevent drainage causing water logging in the arable lands.

  4. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  5. Head, Neck, and Oral Cancer

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Oral, Head and Neck Pathology TMJ and Facial Pain Wisdom Teeth Management Procedures Anesthesia Anesthesia Oral and maxillofacial surgeons are ... more. TMJ and Facial Pain TMJ and Facial ... Teeth Management Wisdom Teeth Management An impacted wisdom tooth can ...

  6. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Casajus

    Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  7. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  8. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-03-01

    The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  9. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  10. Recalibration of a ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in Southeastern Arkansas, 1918, with simulations of hydraulic heads caused by projected ground-water withdrawals through 2049

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Gregory P.; Clark, Brian R.

    2003-01-01

    The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, encompassing parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee supplies an average of 5 billion gallons of water per day. However, withdrawals from the aquifer in recent years have caused considerable drawdown in the hydraulic heads in southeastern Arkansas and other areas. The effects of current ground-water withdrawals and potential future withdrawals on water availability are major concerns of water managers and users as well as the general public. A full understanding of the behavior of the aquifer under various water-use scenarios is critical for the development of viable water-management and alternative source plans. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg District, and the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission developed and calibrated a ground-water flow model for the Mississippi River valley alluvial aquifer in southeastern Arkansas to simulate hydraulic heads caused by projected ground-water withdrawals. A previously published ground-water flow model for the alluvial aquifer in southeastern Arkansas was updated and recalibrated to reflect more current pumping stresses with additional stress periods added to bring the model forward from 1982 to 1998. The updated model was developed and calibrated with MODFLOW-2000 finite difference numerical modeling and parameter estimation software. The model was calibrated using hydraulic-head data collected during 1972 and 1982 and hydraulic-head measurements made during spring (February to April) of 1992 and 1998. The residuals for 1992 and 1998 have a mean absolute value of 4.74 and 5.45 feet, respectively, and a root mean square error of 5.9 and 6.72 feet, respectively. The effects of projected ground-water withdrawals were simulated through 2049 in three predictive scenarios by adding five additional stress periods of 10 years each. In the three scenarios

  11. The current status of oncolytic viral therapy for head and neck cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew O. Old

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Cancer affects the head and neck region frequently and leads to significant morbidity and mortality. Oncolytic viral therapy has the potential to make a big impact in cancers that affect the head and neck. We intend to review the current state of oncolytic viruses in the treatment of cancers that affect the head and neck region. Method: Data sources are from National clinical trials database, literature, and current research. Results: There are many past and active trials for oncolytic viruses that show promise for treating cancers of the head and neck. The first oncolytic virus was approved by the FDA October 2015 (T-VEC, Amgen for the treatment of melanoma. Active translational research continues for this and many other oncolytic viruses. Conclusion: The evolving field of oncolytic viruses is impacting the treatment of head and neck cancer and further trials and agents are moving forward in the coming years. Keywords: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, Oncolytic viruses, Clinical trials, Novel therapeutics

  12. The future of AIDS in Africa: lessons from two scenario projects ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Scenario planning or futures studies have their origin in military planning, but have also been used with great success in the private sector, most notably in the energy industry. UNAIDS and the South African financial services group Metropolitan each recently published a set of scenarios regarding the future impact of ...

  13. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  14. Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

    2013-04-01

    Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

  15. Impact of comorbidity on treatment outcome in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma – A systematic review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bøje, Charlotte Rotbøl

    2014-01-01

    The significant association with tobacco and alcohol combined with advanced age at time of diagnosis predispose head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients to increased risk of comorbidities. The presence of comorbidity affects treatment, treatment selection and subsequent outcome. Multiple studies have demonstrated comorbidity to be a strong prognostic factor for survival, and therefore comorbidity can be a major confounder in clinical trials. This review provides a summary of the current literature on comorbidity in head and neck cancer, measurements of comorbidity, the impact of comorbidity on treatment, treatment selection, and survival. A systematic search was performed in six electronic databases. In all, 31 papers were selected for this review. A meta-analysis on the prognostic impact of comorbidity was performed including 10 studies. Furthermore, 21 studies concerning comorbidity were reviewed. Several valid indices to classify comorbidity were described in the literature, none proven to be superior over the other. The prevalence of comorbidity increased with age and the presence of comorbidity influenced treatment and treatment selection. Furthermore, comorbidity was associated with lower socio economic status and increased the risk of early retirement after treatment. The meta-analysis on comorbidity as a prognostic factor, including 22,932 patients, showed that overall survival was significantly worsened among patients with comorbidity (HR = 1.38 (1.32–1.43)). Increasing comorbidity-score was associated with increased risk of death. Comorbidity is important in HNSCC and significantly impacts on overall survival. Trials concerning HNSCC should always include information on comorbidity and randomized trials should stratify patients according to comorbidity in order to avoid bias in the study

  16. Research study for extremely unlikely scenario of high level waste disposal: Part 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohkubo, Hiroo

    1999-02-01

    In this research, first, event and process relevant to the key words (or scenario initiator) such as volcanism have been identified and, especially a middle-scale eruption scenario including pyroclastic flows has been analyzed as the catastrophic scenario, which inspires ordinary people to have tremendous concern. Secondly, based upon the characteristic events and processes of each scenario considered in the above and through the research of existing model of such risk, quantitative concept (release amount magnitude, release mode, release form, frequency of release, probability etc.) and impact on repository system, facility and environment have been analyzed, defended and defined. Model which can assess and analyze such impact has been built. Using these models, risks directly or indirectly caused by HLW repository have been calculated. Finally, the process for assessing the consequence of volcanism scenario and its risk calculated by the model developed in the above have been visualized, and presented by comparing with other risks. (author)

  17. Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

    2010-03-01

    Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

  18. Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

  19. Regional climate change scenarios for México

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Sánchez, O.; Gay, C.

    In this paper we present the regional climate change scenarios that were used for the assessment of the potential impacts in México on agriculture, livestock, forestry, hydrological resources as well as on human settlements and biodiversity. Those studies were developed for the Fourth Communication

  20. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  1. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

  2. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  3. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  4. Participatory evaluation of regional light rail scenarios: A Flemish case on sustainable mobility and land-use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermote, Levi; Macharis, Cathy; Hollevoet, Joachim; Putman, Koen

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose three light rail scenarios, each covering a specific landscape structure to curtail private vehicle-driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. • We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) to assess the social, economic and environmental impact of alternative light rail scenarios. • We discuss catalyst measures to comply with the identified drawbacks of the proposed scenarios. - Abstract: Rail transit is generally acknowledged as an alternative transport mode in contributing towards sustainable mobility. In addition to minimising negative externalities, rail transit has sustainable land-use opportunities to integrate transport- and spatial planning. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of integrative light rail scenarios and their ability to curtail private vehicle driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. The paper proposes three light rail scenarios: an infrastructural scenario; tramification scenario; and spatial rail scenario, each covering a specific landscape structure to reorganise the dispersed spatial environment in Flanders in the long-term. We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) which incorporates the objectives of all involved stakeholders to assess the impact of the scenarios. The infrastructural alternative scenario gained most support among the involved stakeholders, on the grounds of improved multimodality, enhanced user amenities, reduced implementation costs, moderated greenhouse gas emissions and mitigated infrastructural barrier effects. Despite the merits of the infrastructural scenario in terms of stakeholder objectives, few possibilities are included to elaborate upon sustainable land-use development. In response to the low performance of this assessment criterion, catalyst measures are discussed to support the implementation

  5. The Impact of Tourism on Curacao's Economy: A Scenario Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jelsma, L.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Curaçao is an autonomous country
    within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The government
    wants to support tourism development. However,
    various development strategies are possible. This article
    presents four scenarios of marketing and investment
    strategies that will affect the

  6. Low head hydro market assessment : main report : vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-03-01

    Hydroelectric power is a predictable renewable energy source that produces no greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has low maintenance costs. In addition to river resources, low head hydro is available in sluice gates, irrigation canals, drinking water pressure release valves, and municipal wastewater outfalls. Canada's potential for low head hydro has been estimated at 5000 MW at 2000 different sites across the country. Sites of up to 50 MW have been identified in Ontario and Manitoba. This study performed a market assessment on low head hydro developments. Available and emerging technologies for developing low head hydro were identified. The economics of low head hydro in Canada were explored, and barriers to low head hydro development were identified. Strategies to promote low head hydro development were also explored, and the impact of different incentive types on the low head hydropower market were estimated using a simple economic model. It was concluded that a reduced, streamlined, and standardized environmental assessment process will significantly benefit low head hydro development in Canada. 5 refs., 14 tabs., 17 figs

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  8. Prognostic impact of p53, c-erbB-2 and epidermal growth factor receptor on head and neck carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Parise Junior

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: p53, c-erbB-2 and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR are cancer-related proteins that are usually expressed in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (SCC. Their prognostic value remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic impact of p53, c-erbB-2 and EGFR expression in head and neck SCC. TYPE OF STUDY: Prospective. SETTING: Head and Neck Surgery Department, Hospital AC Camargo, São Paulo. METHODS: Fifty-four patients were studied for p53, c-erbB-2 and EGFR expression in head and neck SCC and adjacent mucosa, via immunohistochemistry. These data were correlated with histoclinical data and survival. RESULTS: There was a direct association of p53 expression in SCC and mucosa (p = 0.001; loss of c-erbB-2 expression (- from normal mucosa to SCC (p = 0.04; lower frequency of association of c-erbB-2 (+ with EGFR (- in SCC (p = 0.02; and a direct association of EGFR (+ expression in SCC and mitotic index (p = 0.03. The 60-month actuarial survival rates for patients presenting lymph node metastasis were higher when there was no capsule rupture by SCC (48.3%; p = 0.02, no more than one positive lymph node (52.3%; p = 0.004 or clear surgical margins (47.0%; p = 0.01, in comparison with patients presenting capsule rupture (20.2%, two or more positive lymph nodes (18.7% or compromised surgical margins (0.0%, respectively. Patients presenting SCC p53 (+ and EGFR (- demonstrated greater survival (75.0%; p = 0.03 than for the remaining group (33.1%. Multivariate analysis confirmed the positive impact of p53 (+ and EGFR (- on survival (p = 0.02. DISCUSSION: Associations were found for p53, c-erbB-2 and EGFR expression with histoclinical data and prognosis. Interestingly, these results suggest that loss of mucosal c-erbB-2 expression could be involved in SCC carcinogenesis; EGFR expression in SCC is related to tumor mitotic index; and presence of p53 with absence of EGFR expression in head and neck SCC may be a prognostic factor for

  9. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  10. The impact of use of Glutamine on patients with head and neck tumors in radiotherapy and chemotherapy treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boligon, Caroline Schardong; Huth, Adriane

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: patients with head and neck neoplasia usually show malnutrition or a nutritional risk, because of common symptoms like: dysphagia, odynophagia and xerostomia. Objective: this study aimed to verify the impact of using amino glutamine in patients with head and neck neoplasia and under radiotherapy and chemotherapy treatment concomitantly. Methods: the research was quantitative, cross-sectional, descriptive and exploratory. The data was collected from nutritional evaluation, and patients chart consultation. The patients were divided in a control group (without use of glutamine) and a test group (with use of glutamine). 16 patients, 13 of which were men and three were women, participated in the research. Results: The control group presented mucositis grades I to IV while patients who used the amino glutamine showed mucositis grades I to II only. It could be observed that the Nutritional Risk Index decreased, which represents higher nutritional risk in patients from the control group only. In patients who used glutamine, this decrease was not significant. Conclusion: these results suggest that the use of glutamine in patients with head and neck tumors and under antineoplastic therapy helps to maintain their nutritional stage and to prevent mucositis throughout their treatment, mainly grades III and IV, which prevents adequate and regular eating and nourishment. (author)

  11. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  12. Moneyball for Head Start: Using Data, Evidence, and Evaluation to Improve Outcomes for Children and Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Sara; Mitchel, Ashley LiBetti

    2016-01-01

    Head Start is a valuable federal program that improves the lives of our nation's most vulnerable children and their families. Research shows that Head Start programs improve children's learning at school entry and have a positive impact on long-term life outcomes. Research also suggests that Head Start could have a stronger impact on children's…

  13. Methodological issues in regional impacts research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, S.J.

    1990-01-01

    Analysis of the literature concerning regional impacts of climatic change research reveals common elements. Global climatic change scenarios are used to derive regional climate change scenarios, but there is no standard approach for doing so. These scenarios are applied as inputs to impact models that have been used to describe past variations but may not be calibrated for global scenarios. The human element (technology, land use, population density) is generally assumed to remain unchanged. The general process of performing a study on the impacts of projected global warming on the physical and human environments involves three main steps: develop or specify a scenario for global warming for the study area; develop or specify an impact model for the activity in question; and apply the scenario to the impact model. Problems include defining a baseline, resolution of the scenarios, scenario data for regional-scale features, combination of model output with station data, and validation of impact models using archived climate data as inputs. A review of scenario application procedures indicates that four general approaches have been used: the study area baseline is combined with the scenario anomaly of the nearest center of the grid square; the scenario anomaly field is objectively interpreted and combined with the baseline value; the baseline field is objectively interpreted so that data are produced for the same points as the scenario anomaly field; and the baseline and several scenario's anomaly fields are interpolated and combined into one scenario using dynamical/empirical reasoning. 48 refs., 1 fig

  14. Do stigma and its psychosocial impact differ between Asian-born Chinese immigrants and Western-born Caucasians with head and neck cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, Sophie; Payne, Ada Y M; Mah, Kenneth; Irish, Jonathan; Rodin, Gary; Devins, Gerald M

    2016-07-01

    Stigma appears to influence emotional distress and well-being in cancer survivors, but cross-cultural differences have been ignored. Previous studies suggest that stigma may be especially relevant for survivors of Asian origin. However, their study designs (e.g. focused on female cancers, qualitative designs, and an absence of comparison groups) limit the strength of this conclusion. We hypothesized that (1) Asian-born Chinese immigrants (AI) would report more perceived cancer-related stigma than Western-born Caucasians (WBC); and (2) the impact of stigma on emotional distress and well-being would be greater in AI as compared to WBC. Head and neck cancer survivors (n = 118 AI and n = 404 WBC) completed measures of well-being, emotional distress, and a three-item indicator of stigma in structured interviews. The majority of respondents (59%) reported one or more indicators of stigma. Stigma correlated significantly with emotional distress (r = .13, p = .004) and well-being (r = -.09, p = .032). Contrary to our hypotheses, WBCs and AIs did not differ in reported stigma nor did we detect differences in its psychosocial impact. Stigma exerts a deleterious psychosocial impact on head and neck cancer survivors. It did not differ significantly between AI and WBC survivors.

  15. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Segura

    Full Text Available Adaptive limiter control (ALC and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects. We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  16. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  17. Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

  18. 2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jako Volschenk

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism and its “midwife”, aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT, with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts — either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as “possible” futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the “grim reaper” and the “fallen angel” scenarios, are undesirable. The “green lantern” scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.

  19. Development of Accident Scenarios and Quantification Methodology for RAON Accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yongjin; Jae, Moosung

    2014-01-01

    The RIsp (Rare Isotope Science Project) plans to provide neutron-rich isotopes (RIs) and stable heavy ion beams. The accelerator is defined as radiation production system according to Nuclear Safety Law. Therefore, it needs strict operate procedures and safety assurance to prevent radiation exposure. In order to satisfy this condition, there is a need for evaluating potential risk of accelerator from the design stage itself. Though some of PSA researches have been conducted for accelerator, most of them focus on not general accident sequence but simple explanation of accident. In this paper, general accident scenarios are developed by Event Tree and deduce new quantification methodology of Event Tree. In this study, some initial events, which may occur in the accelerator, are selected. Using selected initial events, the accident scenarios of accelerator facility are developed with Event Tree. These results can be used as basic data of the accelerator for future risk assessments. After analyzing the probability of each heading, it is possible to conduct quantification and evaluate the significance of the accident result. If there is a development of the accident scenario for external events, risk assessment of entire accelerator facility will be completed. To reduce the uncertainty of the Event Tree, it is possible to produce a reliable data via the presented quantification techniques

  20. Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassie, B.T.; Asseng, S.; Rotter, R.P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, A.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation

  1. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  2. Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Chen, Weiping; Liao, Yuehua; Luo, Yueping

    2017-12-01

    Socioeconomic development in lake watersheds is closely related with lake nutrient pollution. As the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake has been experiencing an increase in nutrient loading and a growing risk of eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the likely impacts of the socioeconomic development of the Dongting Lake watershed on the phosphorous pollution in the lake. We estimated the contributions from different sources and sub-watersheds to the total phosphorous (TP) export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed under two most likely socioeconomic development scenarios. Moreover, we predicted the likely permissible and actual TP loadings to the Dongting Lake. Under both two scenarios, three secondary sub-watersheds-the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area-are expected to dominate the contribution to the TP export from the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-are predicted to be the major contributors to the TP loading from the entire watershed. The two scenarios are expected to have a slight difference in TP export and lake TP loading. Livestock husbandry is expected to be the predominant anthropogenic TP source in each of the sub-watersheds under both scenarios. Compared to 2010, permissible TP loading is not expected to increase but actual TP loading is predicted to grow significantly in 2020. Our study provides methodologies to identify the key sources and regions of lake nutrient loading from watersheds with complex socioeconomic context, and to reveal the potential influences of socioeconomic development on nutrient pollution in lake watersheds.

  3. Ultrashort optical waveguide excitations in uniaxial silica fibers: elastic collision scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuetche, Victor K; Youssoufa, Saliou; Kofane, Timoleon C

    2014-12-01

    In this work, we investigate the dynamics of an uniaxial silica fiber under the viewpoint of propagation of ultimately ultrashort optical waveguide channels. As a result, we unveil the existence of three typical kinds of ultrabroadband excitations whose profiles strongly depend upon their angular momenta. Looking forward to surveying their scattering features, we unearth some underlying head-on scenarios of elastic collisions. Accordingly, we address some useful and straightforward applications in nonlinear optics through secured data transmission systems, as well as laser physics and soliton theory with optical soliton dynamics.

  4. The impact of virus in N3 node dissection for head and neck cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armas, Gian Luca; Su, Chih-Ying; Huang, Chao-Cheng; Fang, Fu-Min; Chen, Ching-Mei; Chien, Chih-Yen

    2008-11-01

    This study is to determine the impact of virus in surgical outcomes among patients of head and neck cancer with N3 lymph node metastasis. A retrospective analysis was conducted for 32 patients with operable N3 neck metastasis undergoing surgical treatment between January 1987 and October 2006. The nuclei of the tumor cells were investigated for the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNAs and were taken into account as the variable for survival analysis. The primary sites were oropharynx in 11 patients, tongue in 3, buccal mucosa in 1, hypopharynx in 8 and unknown primary in 9. The five-year cumulative overall survival rate was 40.7% and 5-year cumulative regional control rate was 55.8%. The 5-year cumulative overall survival rate of patients with unknown primary site (72.9%) and HPV or EBV positive in the tumor (77.8%) were significantly higher than those patients with known primary site (31.3%) and HPV or EBV negative in the tumor (27.4%), respectively (P = 0.0335 and P = 0.0348, log rank test). In conclusion, surgery with adjuvant therapy offers reasonable outcomes for operable N3 node in head and neck cancer in our cohort. In addition, patients with HPV or EBV positive in the tumor have a better survival.

  5. Postoperative radiation for advanced head and neck cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, K. Kian; Garden, Adam S.

    1995-01-01

    Purpose: To discuss both general and specific indications for radiation following surgery for patients with cancers of the head and neck. Patients with advanced cancers of the head and neck are often not suitable candidates for treatment with definitive radiation, and are treated with surgery. Frequently these patients fail by recurring in either the primary sites or in the necks. Adjuvant radiation is therefore often a critical component in the management of these patients. While radiation can be done either prior to or after surgery, most centers prefer the postoperative setting. This refresher course will review general concepts of postoperative irradiation for the patient with head and neck cancer and apply these concepts to specific situations. The course will begin with a broad review of the indications for postoperative irradiation as not all patients undergoing surgery for cancers of the head and neck require additional treatment. We will also review the concept of using postoperative radiation to allow for more conservative surgery with preservation of function. The second portion of the course will focus on general techniques of postoperative irradiation. We will review concepts of patient setup and treatment portal design and describe how specific techniques are practiced at MDACC. Controversial topics, including field matching, total dose and fractionation, and the timing of postoperative radiation will be discussed. The final section of the course will review the results of postoperative irradiation as applied to the head and neck in general as well as to specific subsites. In addition to results for the common scenarios of squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity, pharynx and larynx, we will review results of postoperative irradiation for skin cancers of the head and neck, paranasal sinuses, and salivary glands

  6. Impaction Force Influences Taper-Trunnion Stability in Total Hip Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danoff, Jonathan R; Longaray, Jason; Rajaravivarma, Raga; Gopalakrishnan, Ananthkrishnan; Chen, Antonia F; Hozack, William J

    2018-01-31

    This study investigated the influence of femoral head impaction force, number of head strikes, the energy sequence of head strikes, and head offset on the strength of the taper-trunnion junction. Thirty titanium-alloy trunnions were mated with 36-mm zero-offset cobalt-chromium femoral heads of corresponding taper angle. A drop tower impacted the head with 2.5J or 8.25J, resulting in 6 kN or 14 kN impaction force, respectively, in a single strike or combinations of 6 kN + 14 kN or 14 kN + 14 kN. In addition, ten 36-mm heads with -5 and +5 offset were impacted with sequential 14 kN + 14 kN strikes. Heads were subsequently disassembled using a screw-driven mechanical testing frame, and peak distraction force was recorded. Femoral head pull-off force was 45% the strike force, and heads struck with a single 14 kN impact showed a pull-off force twice that of the 6 kN group. Two head strikes with the same force did not improve pull-off force for either 6 kN (P = .90) or 14 kN (P = .90). If the forces of the 2 impactions varied, but either impact measured 14 kN, a 51% higher pull-off force was found compared to impactions of either 6 kN or 6 kN + 6 kN. Femoral head offset did not significantly change the pull-off force among -5, 0, and +5 heads (P = .37). Femoral head impaction force influenced femoral head trunnion-taper stability, whereas offset did not affect pull-off force. Multiple head strikes did not add additional stability, as long as a single strike achieved 14 kN force at the mallet-head impactor interface. Insufficient impaction force may lead to inadequate engagement of the trunnion-taper junction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  8. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  9. The Guayas Estuary and sea level corrections to calculate flooding areas for climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreano, H. R.; Paredes, N.

    2011-12-01

    The Guayas estuary is the inner area of the Gulf of Guayaquil, it holds a water body of around 5000 km2 and the Puna island divides the water flow in two main streams : El Morro and Estero Salado Channel (length: 90 Km.) and Jambeli and Rio Guayas Channel (length: 125km.). The geometry of the estuarine system with the behavior of the tidal wave (semidiurnal) makes tidal amplitude higher at the head than at the mouth, whereas the wave crest at the head is delayed from one and a half to two hours from that at the mouth and sea level recorded by gages along the estuary are all different because of the wave propagation and mean sea level (msl) calculated for each gage show differences with that of La Libertad which is the base line for all altitudes on land (zero level). A leveling and calculations were made to correct such differences in a way that all gages (msl) records were linked to La Libertad and this in turn allowed a better estimates of flooding areas and draw them on topographic maps where zero level corresponds to the mean sea level at La Libertad. The procedure and mathematical formulation could be applied to any estuary or coastal area and it is a useful tool to calculate such areas especially when impacts are on people or capital goods and related to climate change scenarios.

  10. BIOMECHANICS OF HEAD INJURY IN OLYMPIC TAEKWONDO AND BOXING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fife, G.P.; Pieter, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The purpose was to examine differences between taekwondo kicks and boxing punches in resultant linear head acceleration (RLA), head injury criterion (HIC15), peak head velocity, and peak foot and fist velocities. Data from two existing publications on boxing punches and taekwondo kicks were compared. Methods For taekwondo head impacts a Hybrid II Crash Dummy (Hybrid II) head was instrumented with a tri-axial accelerometer mounted inside the Hybrid II head. The Hybrid II was fixed to a height-adjustable frame and fitted with a protective taekwondo helmet. For boxing testing, a Hybrid III Crash Dummy head was instrumented with an array of tri-axial accelerometers mounted at the head centre of gravity. Results Differences in RLA between the roundhouse kick (130.11±51.67 g) and hook punch (71.23±32.19 g, d = 1.39) and in HIC15 (clench axe kick: 162.63±104.10; uppercut: 24.10±12.54, d = 2.29) were observed. Conclusions Taekwondo kicks demonstrated significantly larger magnitudes than boxing punches for both RLA and HIC. PMID:24744497

  11. Validation of a noninvasive system for measuring head acceleration for use during boxing competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckwith, Jonathan G; Chu, Jeffrey J; Greenwald, Richard M

    2007-08-01

    Although the epidemiology and mechanics of concussion in sports have been investigated for many years, the biomechanical factors that contribute to mild traumatic brain injury remain unclear because of the difficulties in measuring impact events in the field. The purpose of this study was to validate an instrumented boxing headgear (IBH) that can be used to measure impact severity and location during play. The instrumented boxing headgear data were processed to determine linear and rotational acceleration at the head center of gravity, impact location, and impact severity metrics, such as the Head Injury Criterion (HIC) and Gadd Severity Index (GSI). The instrumented boxing headgear was fitted to a Hybrid III (HIII) head form and impacted with a weighted pendulum to characterize accuracy and repeatability. Fifty-six impacts over 3 speeds and 5 locations were used to simulate blows most commonly observed in boxing. A high correlation between the HIII and instrumented boxing headgear was established for peak linear and rotational acceleration (r2= 0.91), HIC (r2 = 0.88), and GSI (r2 = 0.89). Mean location error was 9.7 +/- 5.2 masculine. Based on this study, the IBH is a valid system for measuring head acceleration and impact location that can be integrated into training and competition.

  12. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-01-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO 2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO 2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  13. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  14. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  15. Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, G.

    2002-07-01

    Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

  16. Passive Cushiony Biomechanics of Head Protection in Falling Geckos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Gekko geckos are capable to crawl on the steep even on upside-down surfaces. Such movement, especially at great altitude, puts them at high risks of incidentally dropping down and inevitable body or head impactions, though they may trigger air-righting reaction (ARR to attenuate the landing shocks. However, the air-righting ability (ARA in Gekko geckos is not fully developed. The implementation of ARR in some geckos is quite slow; and for those without tails, the ARR is even unobservable. Since ARA is compromised in Gekko geckos, there must be some other mechanisms responsible for protecting them from head injuries during falls. In this study, we looked into a Gekko gecko’s brain to study its internal environment and structure, using the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI technique. The results showed that the brain parenchyma was fully surrounded by the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF in the skull. A succulent characteristic was presented, which meant the intracalvarium was significantly occupied by the CSF, up to 45% in volume. Then a simplified three-dimensional finite element model was built, and a dynamic simulation was conducted to evaluate the mechanical property of this succulent characteristic during the head impactions. These implied the succulent characteristic may play certain roles on the self-protection in case of head impaction, which is adaptable to the Gekko gecko’s locomotion and behavior.

  17. Nuclear energy and fuel mix. Impacts of new nuclear power plants after 2020 in the nuclear energy scenarios of the Energy Report 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seebregts, A.J.; Snoep, H.J.M.; Van Deurzen, J.; Lako, P.; Poley, A.D.

    2010-03-01

    This report presents facts and figures on new nuclear energy in the Netherlands, in the period after 2020. The information is meant to support a stakeholder discussion process on the role of new nuclear power in the transition to a sustainable energy supply for the Netherlands. The report covers a number of issues relevant to the subject. Facts and figures on the following issues are presented: Nuclear power and the power market (including impact of nuclear power on electricity market prices); Economic aspects (including costs of nuclear power and external costs and benefits, impact on end user electricity prices); The role of nuclear power with respect to security of supply; Sustainability aspects, including environmental aspects; The impact of nuclear power in three 'nuclear energy scenarios' for the Netherlands, within the context of a Northwest European energy market. The scenarios are: (1a) No new nuclear power in the Netherlands ('Base case'); (1b) After closure of the existing Borssele nuclear power plant by the end of 2033, the construction of new nuclear power plant that will operate in 2040. That plant is assumed to be designed not to have a serious core melt down accident (e.g. PBMR) (200 to 500 MWe); (2) New nuclear power shortly after closure the Borssele nuclear power plant in 2033 (1000 to 1600 MWe, 3rd Generation); (3) New nuclear power plants shortly after 2020 (2000 to 5000 MWe, 3rd Generation). Two electricity demand scenario background scenario variants have been constructed based on an average GDP growth of about 2% per year up to 2040. The first variant is based on a steadily growing electricity demand and on currently established NL and EU policies and instruments. It is expected to be largely consistent with a new and forthcoming reference projection 'Energy and Emissions 2010-2020' for the Netherlands (published by ECN and PBL in 2010). A lower demand variant is based on additional energy savings and on higher shares of renewable

  18. The dosimetric impact of dental implants on head-and-neck volumetric modulated arc therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Mu-Han; Li Jinsheng; Price, Robert A Jr; Wang Lu; Ma, C-M; Lee, Chung-Chi

    2013-01-01

    This work aims to investigate the dosimetric impact of dental implants on volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) for head-and-neck patients and to evaluate the effectiveness of using the material's electron-density ratio for the correction. An in-house Monte Carlo (MC) code was utilized for the dose calculation to account for the scattering and attenuation caused by the high-Z implant material. Three different dental implant materials were studied in this work: titanium, Degubond®4 and gold. The dose perturbations caused by the dental implant materials were first investigated in a water phantom with a 1 cm 3 insert. The per cent depth dose distributions of a 3 × 3 cm 2 photon field were compared with the insert material as water and the three selected dental implant materials. To evaluate the impact of the dental implant on VMAT patient dose calculation, four head-and-neck cases were selected. For each case, the VMAT plan was designed based on the artifact-corrected patient geometry using a treatment planning system (TPS) that was typically utilized for routine patient treatment. The plans were re-calculated using the MC code for five situations: uncorrected geometry, artifact-corrected geometry and artifact-corrected geometry with one of the three different implant materials. The isodose distributions and the dose–volume histograms were cross-compared with each other. To evaluate the effectiveness of using the material's electron-density ratio for dental implant correction, the implant region was set as water with the material's electron-density ratio and the calculated dose was compared with the MC simulation with the real material. The main effect of the dental implant was the severe attenuation in the downstream. The 1 cm 3 dental implant can lower the downstream dose by 10% (Ti) to 51% (Au) for a 3 × 3 cm 2 field. The TPS failed to account for the dose perturbation if the dental implant material was not precisely defined. For the VMAT patient dose

  19. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  20. Snowboard head injury: prospective study in Chino, Nagano, for two seasons from 1995 to 1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakaguchi, H; Fujimaki, T; Ueki, K; Takahashi, M; Yoshida, H; Kirino, T

    1999-06-01

    The popularity of snowboarding has been growing rapidly throughout the world. To date, however, the risk of head injury associated with this relatively new winter sport, especially in comparison with alpine skiing, has not been well analyzed. This study was conducted to assess the risk of head injury in snowboarding and to elucidate its features in comparison with skiing head injury. We prospectively analyzed 301 cases of head injuries related to snowboarding or skiing experienced from December of 1995 to May of 1997 at our institution, which is located close to the most popular skiing areas in Japan. Of those injuries, 143 cases were snowboard related and 158 cases were ski related. In addition to appropriate medical evaluation and medical care, detailed examination was performed on every patient to determine various factors, including sex, age, skill level, cause and mechanism of the accident, and the side of impact to the head. The data are statistically analyzed to elucidate unique features of snowboard head injury. During the study period, 2.2 million snowboarders and 4.2 million skiers visited the five skiing facilities that are covered by our hospital. Thus, the incidence of head injury was 6.5 per 100,000 visits for snowboarders and 3.8 per 100,000 visits for skiers. Beginning snowboarders more frequently sustained head injuries compared with beginning skiers (60 of 142 vs. 48 of 154, p = 0.022). Likewise, frequent causes of snowboarding head injuries were fall during jumping (43 of 139 vs. 2 of 147, pskiing head injuries (1.3%). Of 11 major head injury cases, 10 were caused by occipital impact. These results indicate that snowboarders, particularly beginners, are at higher risk for head injury, frequently involving occipital impact, and could lead to more major head injuries. We propose that measures should be taken to protect the head, especially the occiput, in snowboarding.

  1. A look into the future. Scenarios for distributed generation in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheepers, M.J.J.; Timpe, C.

    2003-12-01

    Based on the analysis of the long-term historical and future technical, socio-economic and institutional dynamics of European electricity supply systems and markets, the SUSTELNET project developed scenarios for future electricity supply systems in EU Member States and Newly Associated States (NAS). These scenarios provide a background for the development of regulatory road maps, which can be used as a tool to map out a regulatory strategy, facilitating the transition of current regulation into a regulatory framework that is required for future sustainable electricity supply systems. This report describes four different scenarios for the future of electricity systems and distributed generation (DG) in Europe in a qualitative manner. Moreover, the methodology used to develop these scenarios is described as well as the impact that disruptive events may have on these scenarios

  2. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  3. The Effect of Soil Type and Moisture Content on Head Impacts on Natural Grass Athletic Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyley Dickson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Studies are warranted to evaluate head injury criterion (HIC on athletic fields to determine baseline numbers and compare those findings to current critical thresholds for impact attenuation. A two year (2016 and 2017 study was conducted on University of Tennessee athletic fields (Knoxville, TN, USA to determine the effect of soil type (cohesive soil, United States Golf Association sand specifications and grass species (Poa pratensis and Cynodon dactylon × C. transvaalensis on HIC. Additionally soil moisture conditions monitored were: dry (0.06–0.16 m3/m3, acceptable (0.17–0.29 m3/m3, and wet (0.30–0.40 m3/m3. A linear relationship (r = 0.91 was identified between drop height (0.5–2.9 M and HIC value (35-1423 HIC on granular root zones of both grass types. However, HIC on cohesive soil is a function of soil water content in addition to drop height. These results demonstrate to aid in head injury prevention on cohesive soil athletic fields the HIC can be lowered by managing soil water content.

  4. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...

  5. Head injury in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiura, Makoto; Mori, Nobuhiko; Yokosuka, Reiko; Yamamoto, Masaaki; Imanaga, Hirohisa

    1981-01-01

    Findings of computerized tomography (CT) in 183 cases of head injury in children were investigated with special reference to CT findings of mild head injury. As was expected, CT findings of mild head injury fell within the normal range, in almost all cases. However, abnormal findings were noticed in 4 out of 34 cases (12%) in acute stage and 7 out of 76 cases (9%) in chronic stage. They were 3 cases of localized low density area in acute stage and 6 cases of mild cerebral atrophy in chronic stage, etc. There were some cases of mild head injury in which CT findings were normal while EEG examination revealed abnormality. Also in some cases, x-ray study demonstrated linear skull fracture which CT failed to show. These conventional techniques could be still remained as useful adjunct aid in diagnosis of head injury. CT findings of cases of cerebral contusion in their acute stage were divided as follows; normal, low density, small ventricle and ventricular and/or cisternal hemorrhage, frequency of incidence being 38, 17, 22, 11% respectively. These findings were invariably converted to cerebral atrophy from 10 days to 2 months after the impacts. In the cases with intracranial hematoma revealed by CT, only 32% of them showed clinical signs of Araki's type IV in their acute stage and 63% of them showed no neurological defects, that is Araki's type I and II. A case of extreme diffuse cerebral atrophy which followed acute subdural hematoma caused by tear of bridging veins without cortical contusion was presented. (author)

  6. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  7. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L.; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C.

    2017-01-09

    Urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

  8. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

    2017-08-22

    Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

  9. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  10. The Impact of Radiation Treatment Time on Survival in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaikh, Talha; Handorf, Elizabeth A.; Murphy, Colin T.; Mehra, Ranee; Ridge, John A.; Galloway, Thomas J.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of radiation treatment time (RTT) in head and neck cancers on overall survival (OS) in the era of chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Patients with diagnoses of tongue, hypopharynx, larynx, oropharynx, or tonsil cancer were identified by use of the National Cancer Database. RTT was defined as date of first radiation treatment to date of last radiation treatment. In the definitive setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >56 days, accelerated RTT was defined as 49 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <40 days, and standard RTT was defined as 40 to 49 days. We used χ"2 tests to identify predictors of RTT. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS among groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used for OS analysis in patients with known comorbidity status. Results: 19,531 patients were included; 12,987 (67%) had a standard RTT, 4,369 (34%) had an accelerated RTT, and 2,165 (11%) had a prolonged RTT. On multivariable analysis, accelerated RTT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.97) was associated with an improved OS, and prolonged RTT (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.37) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT. When the 9,200 (47%) patients receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiation were examined, prolonged RTT (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11-1.50) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT, whereas there was no significant association between accelerated RTT and OS (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.57-1.01). Conclusion: Prolonged RTT is associated with worse OS in patients receiving radiation therapy for head and neck cancer, even in the setting of chemoradiation. Expeditious completion of radiation should continue to be a quality metric for the management of head and neck malignancies.

  11. Automated recognition of rear seat occupants' head position using Kinect™ 3D point cloud.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Helen; Kim, Jinyong; Arbogast, Kristy; Kuo, Jonny; Koppel, Sjaan; Cross, Suzanne; Charlton, Judith

    2017-12-01

    Child occupant safety in motor-vehicle crashes is evaluated using Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATD) seated in optimal positions. However, child occupants often assume suboptimal positions during real-world driving trips. Head impact to the seat back has been identified as one important injury causation scenario for seat belt restrained, head-injured children (Bohman et al., 2011). There is therefore a need to understand the interaction of children with the Child Restraint System to optimize protection. Naturalistic driving studies (NDS) will improve understanding of out-of-position (OOP) trends. To quantify OOP positions, an NDS was conducted. Families used a study vehicle for two weeks during their everyday driving trips. The positions of rear-seated child occupants, representing 22 families, were evaluated. The study vehicle - instrumented with data acquisition systems, including Microsoft Kinect™ V1 - recorded rear seat occupants in 1120 driving 26 trips. Three novel analytical methods were used to analyze data. To assess skeletal tracking accuracy, analysts recorded occurrences where Kinect™ exhibited invalid head recognition among a randomly-selected subset (81 trips). Errors included incorrect target detection (e.g., vehicle headrest) or environmental interference (e.g., sunlight). When head data was present, Kinect™ was correct 41% of the time; two other algorithms - filtering for extreme motion, and background subtraction/head-based depth detection are described in this paper and preliminary results are presented. Accuracy estimates were not possible because of their experimental nature and the difficulty to use a ground truth for this large database. This NDS tested methods to quantify the frequency and magnitude of head positions for rear-seated child occupants utilizing Kinect™ motion-tracking. This study's results informed recent ATD sled tests that replicated observed positions (most common and most extreme), and assessed the validity of child

  12. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  13. Head Start at ages 3 and 4 versus Head Start followed by state pre-k: Which is more effective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Jade Marcus; Farkas, George; Duncan, Greg J.; Burchinal, Margaret; Vandell, Deborah Lowe

    2016-01-01

    As policy-makers contemplate expanding preschool opportunities for low-income children, one possibility is to fund two, rather than one year of Head Start for children at ages 3 and 4. Another option is to offer one year of Head Start followed by one year of pre-k. We ask which of these options is more effective. We use data from the Oklahoma pre-k study to examine these two ‘pathways’ into kindergarten using regression discontinuity to estimate the effects of each age-4 program, and propensity score weighting to address selection. We find that children attending Head Start at age 3 develop stronger pre-reading skills in a high quality pre-kindergarten at age 4 compared with attending Head Start at age 4. Pre-k and Head Start were not differentially linked to improvements in children’s pre-writing skills or pre-math skills. This suggests that some impacts of early learning programs may be related to the sequencing of learning experiences to more academic programming. PMID:27076692

  14. Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Coulthard

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience