Prediction of failure modes for concrete nuclear-containment buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Butler, T.A.

1982-01-01

The failure modes and associated failure pressures for two common generic types of PWR containments are predicted. One building type is a lightly reinforced, posttensioned structure represented by the Zion nuclear reactor containment. The other is the normally reinforced Indian Point containment. Two-dimensional models of the buildings developed using the finite element method are used to predict the failure modes and failure pressures. Predicted failure modes for both containments involve loss of structural integrity at the intersection of the cylindrical sidewall with the base slab

Development of simplified 1D and 2D models for studying a PWR lower head failure under severe accident conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koundy, V.; Dupas, J.; Bonneville, H.; Cormeau, I.

2005-01-01

In the study of severe accidents of nuclear pressurized water reactors, the scenarios that describe the relocation of significant quantities of liquid corium at the bottom of the lower head are investigated from the mechanical point of view. In these scenarios, the risk of a breach and the possibility of a large quantity of corium being released from the lower head exist. This may lead to direct heating of the containment or outer vessel steam explosion. These issues are important due to their early containment failure potential. Since the TMI-2 accident, many theoretical and experimental investigations, relating to lower head mechanical behaviour under severe thermo-mechanical loading in the event of a core meltdown accident have been performed. IRSN participated actively in the one-fifth scale USNRC/SNL LHF and OECD LHF (OLHF) programs. Within the framework of these programs, two simplified models were developed by IRSN: the first is a simplified 1D approach based on the theory of pressurized spherical shells and the second is a simplified 2D model based on the theory of shells of revolution under symmetric loading. The mathematical formulation of both models and the creep constitutive equations used are presented in detail in this paper. The corresponding models were used to interpret some of the OLHF program experiments and the calculation results were quite consistent with the experimental data. The two simplified models have been used to simulate the thermo-mechanical behaviour of a 900 MWe pressurized water reactor lower head under severe accident conditions leading to failure. The average transient heat flux produced by the corium relocated at the bottom of the lower head has been determined using the IRSN HARAR code. Two different methods, both taking into account the ablation of the internal surface, are used to determine the temperature profiles across the lower head wall and their effect on the time to failure is discussed. Using these simplified models

Performance of immunological response in predicting virological failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingole, Nayana; Mehta, Preeti; Pazare, Amar; Paranjpe, Supriya; Sarkate, Purva

2013-03-01

In HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), the decision on when to switch from first-line to second-line therapy is dictated by treatment failure, and this can be measured in three ways: clinically, immunologically, and virologically. While viral load (VL) decreases and CD4 cell increases typically occur together after starting ART, discordant responses may be seen. Hence the current study was designed to determine the immunological and virological response to ART and to evaluate the utility of immunological response to predict virological failure. All treatment-naive HIV-positive individuals aged >18 years who were eligible for ART were enrolled and assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months clinically and by CD4 cell count and viral load estimations. The patients were categorized as showing concordant favorable (CF), immunological only (IO), virological only (VO), and concordant unfavorable responses (CU). The efficiency of immunological failure to predict virological failure was analyzed across various levels of virological failure (VL>50, >500, and >5,000 copies/ml). At 6 months, 87(79.81%), 7(5.5%), 13 (11.92%), and 2 (1.83%) patients and at 12 months 61(69.3%), 9(10.2%), 16 (18.2%), and 2 (2.3%) patients had CF, IO, VO, and CU responses, respectively. Immunological failure criteria had a very low sensitivity (11.1-40%) and positive predictive value (8.3-25%) to predict virological failure. Immunological criteria do not accurately predict virological failure resulting in significant misclassification of therapeutic responses. There is an urgent need for inclusion of viral load testing in the initiation and monitoring of ART.

Predictive factors of local-regional recurrences following parotid sparing intensity modulated or 3D conformal radiotherapy for head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Mary; Jabbari, Siavash; Lin, Alexander; Bradford, Carol R.; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Teknos, Theodoros N.; Worden, Francis P.; Tsien, Christina; Schipper, Matthew J.; Wolf, Gregory T.; Dawson, Laura A.; Eisbruch, Avraham

2005-01-01

Background and purpose: Predictive factors for local-regional (LR) failures after parotid-sparing, Intensity modulated (IMRT) or 3D conformal radiotherapy for head and neck (HN) cancers were assessed. Patients and methods: One hundred and fifty-eight patients with mostly stages III-IV HN squamous cell carcinoma underwent curative bilateral neck irradiation aimed at sparing the parotid glands. Patient, tumor, and treatment factors were analyzed as predictive factors for LR failure. Results: Twenty-three patients had LR recurrence (19 in-field and four marginal). No differences were found in the doses delivered to the PTVs of patients with or without in-field recurrences. In univariate analysis, tumor site was highly predictive for LR failure in both postoperative and definitive RT patients. In postoperative RT patients, pathologic tumor size, margin status, extracapsular extension (ECE) and number of lymph node metastases, were also significantly predictive. Multivariate analysis showed tumor site (oropharynx vs. other sites) to be a significant predictor in all patients, and involved margins and number of involved lymph nodes in postoperative patients. Conclusions: Clinical rather than dosimetric factors predicted for LR failures in this series, and were similar to those reported following standard RT. These factors may aid in the selection of patients for studies of treatment intensification using IMRT

Development of severe accident analysis code - Development of a finite element code for lower head failure analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huh, Hoon; Lee, Choong Ho; Choi, Tae Hoon; Kim, Hyun Sup; Kim, Se Ho; Kang, Woo Jong; Seo, Chong Kwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1995-08-01

The study concerns the development of analysis models and computer codes for lower head failure analysis when a severe accident occurs in a nuclear reactor system. Although the lower head failure modes consists of several failure modes, the study this year was focused on the global rupture with the collapse pressure and mode by limit analysis and elastic deformation. The behavior of molten core causes elevation of temperature in the reactor vessel wall and deterioration of load-carrying capacity of a reactor vessel. The behavior of molten core and the heat transfer modes were, therefore, postulated in several types and the temperature distributions according to the assumed heat flux modes were calculated. The collapse pressure of a nuclear reactor lower head decreases rapidly with elevation of temperature as time passes. The calculation shows the safety of a nuclear reactor is enhanced with the lager collapse pressure when the hot spot is located far from the pole. 42 refs., 2 tabs., 31 figs. (author)

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

BANK FAILURE PREDICTION WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taha Zaghdoudi

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In recent years the economic and financial world is shaken by a wave of financial crisis and resulted in violent bank fairly huge losses. Several authors have focused on the study of the crises in order to develop an early warning model. It is in the same path that our work takes its inspiration. Indeed, we have tried to develop a predictive model of Tunisian bank failures with the contribution of the binary logistic regression method. The specificity of our prediction model is that it takes into account microeconomic indicators of bank failures. The results obtained using our provisional model show that a bank's ability to repay its debt, the coefficient of banking operations, bank profitability per employee and leverage financial ratio has a negative impact on the probability of failure.

Artificial neural networks: Predicting head CT findings in elderly patients presenting with minor head injury after a fall.

Science.gov (United States)

Dusenberry, Michael W; Brown, Charles K; Brewer, Kori L

2017-02-01

To construct an artificial neural network (ANN) model that can predict the presence of acute CT findings with both high sensitivity and high specificity when applied to the population of patients≥age 65years who have incurred minor head injury after a fall. An ANN was created in the Python programming language using a population of 514 patients ≥ age 65 years presenting to the ED with minor head injury after a fall. The patient dataset was divided into three parts: 60% for "training", 20% for "cross validation", and 20% for "testing". Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy were determined by comparing the model's predictions to the actual correct answers for each patient. On the "cross validation" data, the model attained a sensitivity ("recall") of 100.00%, specificity of 78.95%, PPV ("precision") of 78.95%, NPV of 100.00%, and accuracy of 88.24% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs. On the "test" data, the model attained a sensitivity of 97.78%, specificity of 89.47%, PPV of 88.00%, NPV of 98.08%, and accuracy of 93.14% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs. ANNs show great potential for predicting CT findings in the population of patients ≥ 65 years of age presenting with minor head injury after a fall. As a good first step, the ANN showed comparable sensitivity, predictive values, and accuracy, with a much higher specificity than the existing decision rules in clinical usage for predicting head CTs with acute intracranial findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strain limit criteria to predict failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flanders, H.E.

1995-01-01

In recent years extensive effort has been expended to qualify existing structures for conditions that are beyond the original design basis. Determination of the component failure load is useful for this type of evaluation. This paper presents criteria based upon strain limits to predict the load at failure. The failure modes addressed are excessive plastic deformations, localized plastic strains, and structural instability. The effects of analytical method sophistication, as built configurations, material properties degradation, and stress state are addressed by the criteria

Speaker Prediction based on Head Orientations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rienks, R.J.; Poppe, Ronald Walter; van Otterlo, M.; Poel, Mannes; Poel, M.; Nijholt, A.; Nijholt, Antinus

2005-01-01

To gain insight into gaze behavior in meetings, this paper compares the results from a Naive Bayes classifier, Neural Networks and humans on speaker prediction in four-person meetings given solely the azimuth head angles. The Naive Bayes classifier scored 69.4% correctly, Neural Networks 62.3% and

[Prediction of mortality in patients with acute hepatic failure].

Science.gov (United States)

Eremeeva, L F; Berdnikov, A P; Musaeva, T S; Zabolotskikh, I B

2013-01-01

The article deals with a study of 243 patients (from 18 to 65 years old) with acute hepatic failure. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the predictive capability of severity scales APACHE III, SOFA, MODS, Child-Pugh and to identify mortality predictors in patients with acute hepatic failure. Results; The best predictive ability in patients with acute hepatic failure and multiple organ failure had APACHE III and SOFA scales. The strongest mortality predictors were: serum creatinine > 132 mmol/L, fibrinogen < 1.4 g/L, Na < 129 mmol/L.

Acute renal failure following contrast injection for head computerized tomography in two patients with diabetic nephropathy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsunaga, Hiroshi; Sando, Hiroyuki; Nunokawa, Tomoo; Murakami, Tooru; Miyakawa, Yuzo

1981-01-01

Two cases of diabetes mellitus with renal and retinal involvement developed acute renal failure after undergoing head computerized tomography. The first case was a 62-year-old male who had been diagnosed as having diabetes 25 years before. He had diabetic retinopathy of Scott IIIb. Before head computerized tomography, the serum BUN was 37 mg/dl, and creatinine was 4.1 mg/dl. Oliguria began immediately after the scanning and confinued for 48 hr. The serum levels of BUN and creatinine rose to 106 and 7.7 mg/dl, respectively. Case 2 was a 49-year-old male who had been diagnosed as having diabetes 15 years before. He showed Scott IIb and IV retinopathy. The BUN and creatinine levels in the serum were 32 and 2.3 mg/dl, respectively. After receiving head computerized tomography, he developed oliguria and remained oliguric for 48 hr. During that period, the serum levels of BUN and creatinin were elevated to 112 and 7.5 mg/dl, respectively. Fortunately, both of these patients recovered from the oliguria without resorting to hemodialysis. The iodine contrast medium routinely used for contrast enhancement in the head computerized tomography was implicated in the acute renal failure of these patients. Only elevn cases have so far been reported in the literature who developed acute renal failure following computerized tomography. In view of the three or four times greater dosis of iodine contrast medium employed in computerized tomography compared to intravenous pyelography, the acute incidence of such complications might be much higher. Among the thirteen cases including the two reported here, as many as eight were diabetic. It is well recongnized that the incidence of acute renal failure after intravenous pyelography is particularly high in cases of diabetic nephropathy. (author)

Structural failure analysis of reactor vessels due to molten core debris

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfeiffer, P.A.

1993-01-01

Maintaining structural integrity of the reactor vessel during a postulated core melt accident is an important safety consideration in the design of the vessel. This paper addresses the failure predictions of the vessel due to thermal and pressure loadings from the molten core debris depositing on the lower head of the vessel. Different loading combinations were considered based on a wet or dry cavity and pressurization of the vessel based on operating pressure or atmospheric (pipe break). The analyses considered both short term (minutes) and long term (days) failure modes. Short term failure modes include creep at elevated temperatures and plastic instabilities of the structure. Long term failure modes are caused by creep rupture that lead to plastic instability of the structure. The analyses predict the reactor vessel will remain intact after the core melt has deposited on the lower vessel head

Failure pattern and salvage treatment after radical treatment of head and neck cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pagh, Anja; Grau, Cai; Overgaard, Jens

2016-01-01

Purpose The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that head and neck cancer (HNC) patients benefit from specialized follow-up (FU), as this strategy ensures timely detection of relapses for successful salvage treatment. This was done by evaluation of the pattern of failure, the temporal...... recordings of recurrent disease in 567 patients with primary tumors of the larynx, pharynx, oral cavity, nasal cavity, paranasal sinuses and salivary glands. A review of medical records was performed in order to update and supplement the database. Results Failures of the 567 patients were primarily in T...

Experiments on melt dispersion with lateral failure in the bottom head of the pressure vessel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, L.; Gargallo, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Institut fur Kern-und Energietechnik, Karlsruhe (Germany)

2001-07-01

Melt dispersion experiments with lateral failure in the bottom head were carried out in a 1:18 scaled annular cavity design under low pressure conditions. Water and a bismuth alloy were used as melt simulant material and nitrogen as driving gas. With lateral breaches the liquid height in the lower head relative to the upper and lower edge of the breach is an additional parameter for the dispersion process. Shifting the break from the central position towards the side of the lower head leads to smaller melt dispersion, and a larger breach size does not necessarily lead to a larger dispersed melt fraction. (author)

Prediction of thermoplastic failure of a reactor pressure vessel under a postulated core melt accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duijvestijn, G.; Birchley, J.; Reichlin, K.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the lower head failure calculations performed for a postulated accident scenario in a commercial nuclear power plant. A postulated one inch break in the primary coolant circuit leads to dryout and subsequent meltdown of the core. The reference plant is a pressurized water reactor without penetrations in the reactor vessel lower head. The molten core material accumulates in the lower head, eventually causing failure of the vessel. The analysis investigates flow conditions in the melt pool, temperature evolution in the reactor vessel wall, and structure mechanical evaluation of the vessel under strong thermal loads and a range of internal pressures. The calculations were performed using the ADINA finite element codes. The analysis focusses on the failure processes, time and mode of failure. The most likely mode of failure at low pressure is global rupture due to gradual accumulation of creep strain over a large part of the heated area. In contrast, thermoplasticity becomes important at high pressure or following a pressure spike and can lead to earlier local failure. In situations in which part of the heat load is concentrated over a small area, resulting in a hot spot, local failure occurs, but not until the temperatures are close to the melting point. At low pressure, in particular, the hot spot area remains intact until the structure is molten across more than half of the thickness. (author) 14 figs., 16 refs

Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates

Science.gov (United States)

Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L.; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

2011-01-01

Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and task engagement were assessed based on their observed facial and verbal expressions and behavioral cues. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that observed persistence and shame predicted teacher ratings of children's academic achievement, whereas interest, anxiety, pride, shame, and persistence predicted children's social skills and learning-related behaviors. Children's emotional and behavioral responses to challenge thus appeared to be important indicators of school success. Observation of such responses may be a useful and valid alternative to self-report measures of motivation at this age. PMID:21949599

Review on failure prediction techniques of composite single lap joint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ab Ghani, A.F., E-mail: ahmadfuad@utem.edu.my; Rivai, Ahmad, E-mail: ahmadrivai@utem.edu.my [Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Locked Bag 1200, Hang Tuah Jaya, 75450 Ayer Keroh, Melaka (Malaysia)

2016-03-29

Adhesive bonding is the most appropriate joining method in construction of composite structures. The use of reliable design and prediction technique will produce better performance of bonded joints. Several papers from recent papers and journals have been reviewed and synthesized to understand the current state of the art in this area. It is done by studying the most relevant analytical solutions for composite adherends with start of reviewing the most fundamental ones involving beam/plate theory. It is then extended to review single lap joint non linearity and failure prediction and finally on the failure prediction on composite single lap joint. The review also encompasses the finite element modelling part as tool to predict the elastic response of composite single lap joint and failure prediction numerically.

Review on failure prediction techniques of composite single lap joint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ab Ghani, A.F.; Rivai, Ahmad

2016-01-01

Adhesive bonding is the most appropriate joining method in construction of composite structures. The use of reliable design and prediction technique will produce better performance of bonded joints. Several papers from recent papers and journals have been reviewed and synthesized to understand the current state of the art in this area. It is done by studying the most relevant analytical solutions for composite adherends with start of reviewing the most fundamental ones involving beam/plate theory. It is then extended to review single lap joint non linearity and failure prediction and finally on the failure prediction on composite single lap joint. The review also encompasses the finite element modelling part as tool to predict the elastic response of composite single lap joint and failure prediction numerically.

Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

2015-01-01

To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

Failure prediction of low-carbon steel pressure vessel and cylindrical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, K.D.; Wang, W.

1987-01-01

The failure loads predicted by failure assessment methods (namely the net-section stress criterion; the EPRI engineering approach for elastic-plastic analysis; the CEGB failure assessment route; the modified R6 curve by Milne for strain hardening; and the failure assessment curve based on J estimation by Ainsworth) have been compared with burst test results on externally, axially sharp notched pressure vessel and open-ended cylinder models made from typical low-carbon steel St45 seamless tube which has a transverse true stress-strain curve of straight-line and parabola type and a high value of ultimate strength to yield. It was concluded from the comparison that whilst the net-section stress criterion and the CEGB route did not give conservative predictions, Milne's modified curve did give a conservative and good prediction; Ainsworth's curve gave a fairly conservative prediction; and EPRI solutions also could conditionally give a good prediction but the conditions are still somewhat uncertain. It is suggested that Milne's modified R6 curve is used in failure assessment of low-carbon steel pressure vessels. (author)

Investigating Clinical Failure of Bone Grafting through a Window at the Femoral Head Neck Junction Surgery for the Treatment of Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Zuo

Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze the clinical factors related to the failure of bone grafting through a window at the femoral head-neck junction.In total, 119 patients (158 hips underwent bone grafting for treatment of avascular necrosis of the femoral head. The patients were classified by their ARCO staging and CJFH classification. All patients were clinically and radiographically followed up every three months during the first year and every six months in the following year. The clinical follow-up comprised determination of pre- and postoperative Harris hip scores, while serial AP, frog lateral radiographs, and CT scan were used for the radiographic follow-up.The clinical failure of bone grafting was observed in 40 patients. The clinical failure rates in patients belonging to ARCO stage II period, IIIa, and III (b + c were 25.9%, 16.2%, and 61.5%, respectively, while those in patients belonging to (C + M + L1 type and L2, L3 type disease groups were 1.7%, 38.9%, and 39%, respectively. The clinical failure rates in patients aged below 40 and those aged 40 and over were 20.5% and 39.0%, respectively (all P < 0.05.Disease type, disease stage, and patient age are risk factors for failure of bone graft surgery. Patients belonging to ARCO stage II and IIIa showed a good overall response rate, while patients belonging to ARCO stage IIIb and IIIc and those with necrotic lesions involving the lateral pillar (L2 and L3 type showed high surgical failure rates.

Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

2005-01-01

An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

Failure prediction for Crack-in-Corrosion defects in natural gas transmission pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bedairi, B.; Cronin, D.; Hosseini, A.; Plumtree, A.

2012-01-01

Cracks occurring coincidentally with corrosion (Crack-in-Corrosion or CIC), represent a new hybrid defect in pipelines that are not directly addressed in the current codes or assessment methods. To understand the failure response of these defects, the finite element method using an elastic–plastic fracture mechanics approach was applied to predict the failure pressures of comparable crack, corrosion and CIC defects in 508 mm diameter pipe with 5.7 mm wall thickness. Failure pressure predictions were made based on measured tensile, Charpy impact and J testing data, and validated using experimental rupture tests. Plastic collapse was predicted for corrosion and crack defects using the critical strength based on the material tensile strength, whereas fracture was predicted using the measured J 0.2 value. The model predictions were found to be conservative for the CIC defects (17.4% on average), 12.4% conservative for crack-only defects, and 3.2% conservative for corrosion defects compared to the experimental tests, demonstrating the applicability of the material-based failure criteria. For the defects considered in this study, all were predicted to fail by plastic collapse. The finite element method provided less conservative predictions than existing corrosion or crack-based analytical methods. Highlights: ► Cracks occurring coincidentally with corrosion represent a new hybrid defect in pipelines. ► Existing methods for prediction corrosion and crack defect failure pressures are conservative. ► The FE method can provide improved prediction of rupture pressure using actual material properties. ► Failure was predicted using FE with a critical stress for plastic collapse and J value for fracture. ► FE failure pressure predictions for crack in corrosion defects were 17% conservative on average.

Endoscopic third ventriculostomy with choroid plexus cauterization outcome: distinguishing success from failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Dewan, Michael C; Lim, Jaims; Morgan, Clinton D; Gannon, Stephen R; Shannon, Chevis N; Wellons, John C; Naftel, Robert P

2016-12-01

OBJECTIVE Endoscopic third ventriculostomy with choroid plexus cauterization (ETV/CPC) offers an alternative to shunt treatment for infantile hydrocephalus. Diagnosing treatment failure is dependent on infantile hydrocephalus metrics, including head circumference, fontanel quality, and ventricle size. However, it is not clear to what degree these metrics should be expected to change after ETV/CPC. Using these clinical metrics, the authors present and analyze the decision making in cases of ETV/CPC failure. METHODS Infantile hydrocephalus metrics, including bulging fontanel, head circumference z-score, and frontal and occipital horn ratio (FOHR), were compared between ETV/CPC failures and successes. Treatment outcome predictive values of metrics individually and in combination were calculated. RESULTS Forty-four patients (57% males, median age 1.2 months) underwent ETV/CPC for hydrocephalus; of these patients, 25 (57%) experienced failure at a median time of 51 days postoperatively. Patients experiencing failure were younger than those experiencing successful treatment (0.8 vs 3.9 months, p = 0.01). During outpatient follow-up, bulging anterior fontanel, progressive macrocephaly, and enlarging ventricles each demonstrated a positive predictive value (PPV) of no less than 71%, but a bulging anterior fontanel remained the most predictive indicator of ETV/CPC failure, with a PPV of 100%, negative predictive value of 73%, and sensitivity of 72%. The highest PPVs and specificities existed when the clinical metrics were present in combination, although sensitivities decreased expectedly. Only 48% of failures were diagnosed on the basis all 3 hydrocephalus metrics, while only 37% of successes were negative for all 3 metrics. In the remaining 57% of patients, a diagnosis of success or failure was made in the presence of discordant data. CONCLUSIONS Successful ETV/CPC for infantile hydrocephalus was evaluated in relation to fontanel status, head growth, and change in

Bayesian state prediction of wind turbine bearing failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herp, Jürgen; Ramezani, Mohammad H.; Bach-Andersen, Martin

2017-01-01

A statistical approach to abstract and predict turbine states in an online manner has been developed. Online inference is performed on temperature measurement residuals to predict the failure state δn steps ahead of time. In this framework a case study is performed showing the ability to predict...

Most likely failure location during severe accident conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rempe, J.L.; Allison, C.M.

1991-01-01

This paper describes preliminary results from which finite element calculation results are used in conjunction with analytical calculation results to predict failure in different LWR vessel designs during a severe accident. Detailed analyses are being performed to investigate the relative likelihood of a BWR vessel and drain line penetration to fail during a wide range of severe accident conditions. Analytically developed failure maps, which were developed in terms of dimensionless groups, are applied to consider geometries and materials occurring in other LWR vessel designs. Preliminary numerical analysis results indicate that if ceramic debris relocates within the BWR drain line to a distance below the lower head, the drain line will reach failure temperatures before the vessel fails. Application of failure maps for these debris conditions to other LWR geometries indicate that in-vessel tube melting will occur in either BWR or PWR vessel designs. Furthermore, if this melt is assumed to fill the entire penetration flow area, the melt is predicted to travel well below the lower head in any of the reference LWR penetrations. However, failure maps suggest the result that ex-vessel tube temperatures exceed the penetration's ultimate strength is specific to the BWR drain line because of its material composition and relatively large effective diameter for melt flow

Acute liver failure following recreational use of psychotropic "head shop" compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Fröhlich, S; Lambe, E; O'Dea, J

2011-03-01

The recreational use of the so-called "legal-highs" has been in both the medical and political arena over the last year as a result of the appearance of "head shops" in many towns in Ireland. These shops specialized in selling new psychotropic compounds that circumvented established drug legislation. Little is known about the potentially harmful effects of these substances but case reports suggest a plethora of harmful psychological and physical effects. Our case describes for the first time acute liver failure associated with the ingestion of two of these amphetamine type compounds.

Optimisation of the link volume for weakest link failure prediction in NBG-18 nuclear graphite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hindley, Michael P.; Groenwold, Albert A.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Becker, Thorsten H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the process for approximating the optimal size of a link volume required for weakest link failure calculation in nuclear graphite, with NBG-18 used as an example. As part of the failure methodology, the link volume is defined in terms of two grouping criteria. The first criterion is a factor of the maximum grain size and the second criterion is a function of an equivalent stress limit. A methodology for approximating these grouping criteria is presented. The failure methodology employs finite element analysis (FEA) in order to predict the failure load, at 50% probability of failure. The average experimental failure load, as determined for 26 test geometries, is used to evaluate the accuracy of the weakest link failure calculations. The influence of the two grouping criteria on the failure load prediction is evaluated by defining an error in prediction across all test cases. Mathematical optimisation is used to find the minimum error across a range of test case failure predictions. This minimum error is shown to deliver the most accurate failure prediction across a whole range of components, although some test cases in the range predict conservative failure load. The mathematical optimisation objective function is penalised to account for non-conservative prediction of the failure load for any test case. The optimisation is repeated and a link volume found for conservative failure prediction. The failure prediction for each test case is evaluated, in detail, for the proposed link volumes. Based on the analysis, link design volumes for NBG-18 are recommended for either accurate or conservative failure prediction

Application of Machine Learning for Dragline Failure Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taghizadeh Amir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Overburden stripping in open cast coal mines is extensively carried out by walking draglines. Draglines’ unavailability and unexpected failures result in delayed productions and increased maintenance and operating costs. Therefore, achieving high availability of draglines plays a crucial role for increasing economic feasibility of mining projects. Applications of methodologies which can forecast the failure type of dragline based on the available failure data not only help to reduce the maintenance and operating costs but also increase the availability and the production rate. In this study, Machine Learning approaches have been applied for data which has been gathered from an operating coal mine in Turkey. The study methodology consists of three algorithms as: i implementation of K-Nearest Neighbors, ii implementation of Multi-Layer Perceptron, and iii implementation of Radial Basis Function. The algorithms have been utilized for predicting the draglines’ failure types. In this sense, the input data, which are mean time-to-failure, and the output data, failure types, have been fed to the algorithms. The regression analysis of methodologies have been compared and showed the K- Nearest Neighbors has a higher rate of regression which is around 70 percent. Thus, the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm can be applied in order to preventive components replacement which causes to minimized preventive and corrective cost parameters. The accurate prediction of failure type, indeed, causes to optimized number of inspections. The novelty of this study is application of machine learning approaches in draglines’ reliability subject for first time.

Does working memory capacity predict cross-modally induced failures of awareness?

Science.gov (United States)

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Simons, Daniel J; Memmert, Daniel

2016-01-01

People often fail to notice unexpected stimuli when they are focusing attention on another task. Most studies of this phenomenon address visual failures induced by visual attention tasks (inattentional blindness). Yet, such failures also occur within audition (inattentional deafness), and people can even miss unexpected events in one sensory modality when focusing attention on tasks in another modality. Such cross-modal failures are revealing because they suggest the existence of a common, central resource limitation. And, such central limits might be predicted from individual differences in cognitive capacity. We replicated earlier evidence, establishing substantial rates of inattentional deafness during a visual task and inattentional blindness during an auditory task. However, neither individual working memory capacity nor the ability to perform the primary task predicted noticing in either modality. Thus, individual differences in cognitive capacity did not predict failures of awareness even though the failures presumably resulted from central resource limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failure to Obtain Computed Tomography Imaging in Head Trauma: A Review of Relevant Case Law.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindor, Rachel A; Boie, Eric T; Campbell, Ronna L; Hess, Erik P; Sadosty, Annie T

2015-12-01

The objectives were to describe lawsuits against providers for failing to order head computed tomography (CT) in cases of head trauma and to determine the potential effects of available clinical decision rules (CDRs) on each lawsuit. The authors collected jury verdicts, settlements, and court opinions regarding alleged malpractice for failure to order head CT in the setting of head trauma from 1972 through February 2014 from an online legal research tool (WestlawNext). Data were abstracted onto a standardized data form. The performance of five CDRs was evaluated. Sixty relevant cases were identified (52 adult, eight children). Of 48 cases with known outcomes, providers were found negligent in 10 cases (six adult, four pediatric), settled in 11 cases (nine adult, two pediatric), and were found not liable in 27 cases. In all 10 cases in which providers were found negligent, every applicable CDR studied would have indicated the need for head CT. In all eight cases involving children, the applicable CDR would have suggested the need for head CT or observation. A review of legal cases reported in a major online legal research system revealed 60 lawsuits in which providers were sued for failing to order head CTs in cases of head trauma. In all cases in which providers were found negligent, CT imaging or observation would have been indicated by every applicable CDR. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Prospective Assessment of Patterns of Failure After High-Precision Definitive (Chemo)Radiation in Head-and-Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Tejpal; Jain, Sandeep; Agarwal, Jai Prakash; Ghosh-Laskar, Sarbani; Phurailatpam, Reena; Pai-Shetty, Rajershi; Dinshaw, Ketayun A.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To prospectively analyze patterns of failure in patients with head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with definitive high-precision radiotherapy with a focus on location of failure relative to target volume coverage. Methods and Materials: Sixty patients treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy or intensity-modulated radiation therapy were included. Locoregional failure volume was defined on the planning data set at relapse, and dose received was analyzed by use of dose-volume histograms. Results: Thirteen patients were deemed to have had locoregional failures, of which two did not have any viable tumor on salvage neck dissection, leaving eleven patients with proven persistent or recurrent locoregional disease. Of these, 9 patients had in-field failure, 1 marginal failure, and 1 both in-field and marginal failures. Overall, only 2 of 11 patients (18%) with relapse had any marginal failure. Of the 20 sites of locoregional failure, 15 (75%) were in-field and 5 (25%) marginal. Distant metastases were detected in 3 patients, whereas a second new primary developed in 3 others. With a median follow-up of 26 months (interquartile range, 18-31 months) for surviving patients, the 3-year local control, locoregional control, disease-free survival, and overall survival rates were 75.3%, 74%, 67.2%, and 60.5%, respectively. Conclusions: Locoregional relapse remains the predominant pattern of failure in head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with high-precision definitive radiotherapy with the majority of failures occurring 'in-field' within the high-dose volume. Marginal failures can occur, particularly in the vicinity of the spared parotid gland. The therapeutic index of high-precision conformal radiotherapy is largely dependent on adequate selection and delineation of target volumes and organs at risk.

[Predictive factors for failure of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation in immunosuppressed patients with acute respiratory failure].

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Xiangli; Yan, Ci; Xu, Sicheng; Gu, Xingli; Wan, Qiufeng; Hu, Xinying; Li, Jingwen; Liu, Guangming; Caikai, Shareli; Guo, Zhijin

2018-02-01

To evaluate the predictive factors for failure of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) in immunosuppressed patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). The clinical data of 118 immuno-deficient patients treated with NIPPV in the respiratory and intensive care unit (RICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2012 to August 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into a non-endotracheal intubation (ETI) group (n = 62) and ETI group (n = 56) according to whether ETI was performed during the hospitalization period or not. Each observed indicator was analyzed by univariate analysis, and factors leading to failure of NIPPV were further analyzed by Logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive value of risk factors for failure of NIPPV in immunosuppressed patients with ARF. The non-intubation rate for NIPPV in immunosuppressed patients was 50.8% (60/118). Compared with the non-ETI group, the body temperature, pH value in the ETI group were significantly increased, the partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide (PaCO 2 ) was significantly decreased, the ratio of oxygenation index (PaO 2 /FiO 2 ) failure of NIPPV. ROC curve analysis showed that the APACHE II score ≥ 20 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 failure of NIPPV, the area under ROC curve (AUC) of the APACHE II score ≥ 20 was 0.787, the sensitivity was 83.93%, the specificity was 69.35%, the positive predict value (PPV) was 71.21%, the negative predict value (NPV) was 82.69%, the positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 2.74, the negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.23, and Youden index was 0.53; the AUC of PaO 2 /FiO 2 failure of NIPPV in immunocompromised patients.

Profound Endothelial Damage Predicts Impending Organ Failure and Death in Sepsis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Maria E; Johansson, Pär I.; Ostrowski, Sisse R

2015-01-01

levels at enrollment predicted risk of multiple organ failure during follow-up (HR [> 14 ng/mL vs. organ failure and death in septic......Endothelial damage contributes to organ failure and mortality in sepsis, but the extent of the contribution remains poorly quantified. Here, we examine the association between biomarkers of superficial and profound endothelial damage (syndecan-1 and soluble thrombomodulin [sTM], respectively......), organ failure, and death in sepsis. The data from a clinical trial, including critically ill patients predominantly suffering sepsis (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00271752) were studied. Syndecan-1 and sTM levels at the time of study enrollment were determined. The predictive ability of biomarker levels...

Can Predictive Modeling Identify Head and Neck Oncology Patients at Risk for Readmission?

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, Amy M; Casper, Keith A; Peter, Kay St; Wilson, Keith M; Mark, Jonathan R; Collar, Ryan M

2018-05-01

Objective Unplanned readmission within 30 days is a contributor to health care costs in the United States. The use of predictive modeling during hospitalization to identify patients at risk for readmission offers a novel approach to quality improvement and cost reduction. Study Design Two-phase study including retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data followed by prospective longitudinal study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods Prospectively collected data for patients undergoing surgical treatment for head and neck cancer from January 2013 to January 2015 were used to build predictive models for readmission within 30 days of discharge using logistic regression, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, and random forests. One model (logistic regression) was then placed prospectively into the discharge workflow from March 2016 to May 2016 to determine the model's ability to predict which patients would be readmitted within 30 days. Results In total, 174 admissions had descriptive data. Thirty-two were excluded due to incomplete data. Logistic regression, CART, and random forest predictive models were constructed using the remaining 142 admissions. When applied to 106 consecutive prospective head and neck oncology patients at the time of discharge, the logistic regression model predicted readmissions with a specificity of 94%, a sensitivity of 47%, a negative predictive value of 90%, and a positive predictive value of 62% (odds ratio, 14.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.02-55.45). Conclusion Prospectively collected head and neck cancer databases can be used to develop predictive models that can accurately predict which patients will be readmitted. This offers valuable support for quality improvement initiatives and readmission-related cost reduction in head and neck cancer care.

Failure mitigation in software defined networking employing load type prediction

KAUST Repository

Bouacida, Nader

2017-07-31

The controller is a critical piece of the SDN architecture, where it is considered as the mastermind of SDN networks. Thus, its failure will cause a significant portion of the network to fail. Overload is one of the common causes of failure since the controller is frequently invoked by new flows. Even through SDN controllers are often replicated, the significant recovery time can be an overkill for the availability of the entire network. In order to overcome the problem of the overloaded controller failure in SDN, this paper proposes a novel controller offload solution for failure mitigation based on a prediction module that anticipates the presence of a harmful long-term load. In fact, the long-standing load would eventually overwhelm the controller leading to a possible failure. To predict whether the load in the controller is short-term or long-term load, we used three different classification algorithms: Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbors, and Naive Bayes. Our evaluation results demonstrate that Support Vector Machine algorithm is applicable for detecting the type of load with an accuracy of 97.93% in a real-time scenario. Besides, our scheme succeeded to offload the controller by switching between the reactive and proactive mode in response to the prediction module output.

Early Prediction of Outcome in Advanced Head-and-Neck Cancer Based on Tumor Blood Volume Alterations During Therapy: A Prospective Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Yue; Popovtzer, Aron; Li, Diana; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Moyer, Jeffrey S.; Prince, Mark E.; Worden, Francis; Teknos, Theodoros; Bradford, Carol; Mukherji, Suresh K.; Eisbruch, Avraham

2008-01-01

Purpose: To assess whether alterations in tumor blood volume (BV) and blood flow (BF) during the early course of chemo-radiotherapy (chemo-RT) for head-and-neck cancer (HNC) predict treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: Fourteen patients receiving concomitant chemo-RT for nonresectable, locally advanced HNC underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI scans before therapy and 2 weeks after initiation of chemo-RT. The BV and BF were quantified from DCE MRI. Preradiotherapy BV and BF, as well as their changes during RT, were evaluated separately in the primary gross tumor volume (GTV) and nodal GTV for association with outcomes. Results: At a median follow-up of 10 months (range, 5-27 months), 9 patients had local-regional controlled disease. One patient had regional failure, 3 had local failures, and 1 had local-regional failure. Reduction in tumor volume after 2 weeks of chemo-RT did not predict for local control. In contrast, the BV in the primary GTV after 2 weeks of chemo-RT was increased significantly in the local control patients compared with the local failure patients (p < 0.03). Conclusions: Our data suggest that an increase in available primary tumor blood for oxygen extraction during the early course of RT is associated with local control, thus yielding a predictor with potential to modify treatment. These findings require validation in larger studies

Association Rule-based Predictive Model for Machine Failure in Industrial Internet of Things

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Jung-Hyok; Lee, Sol-Bee; Park, Jaehoon; Kim, Eui-Jik

2017-09-01

This paper proposes an association rule-based predictive model for machine failure in industrial Internet of things (IIoT), which can accurately predict the machine failure in real manufacturing environment by investigating the relationship between the cause and type of machine failure. To develop the predictive model, we consider three major steps: 1) binarization, 2) rule creation, 3) visualization. The binarization step translates item values in a dataset into one or zero, then the rule creation step creates association rules as IF-THEN structures using the Lattice model and Apriori algorithm. Finally, the created rules are visualized in various ways for users’ understanding. An experimental implementation was conducted using R Studio version 3.3.2. The results show that the proposed predictive model realistically predicts machine failure based on association rules.

Brittle Creep Failure, Critical Behavior, and Time-to-Failure Prediction of Concrete under Uniaxial Compression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingchong Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Understanding the time-dependent brittle deformation behavior of concrete as a main building material is fundamental for the lifetime prediction and engineering design. Herein, we present the experimental measures of brittle creep failure, critical behavior, and the dependence of time-to-failure, on the secondary creep rate of concrete under sustained uniaxial compression. A complete evolution process of creep failure is achieved. Three typical creep stages are observed, including the primary (decelerating, secondary (steady state creep regime, and tertiary creep (accelerating creep stages. The time-to-failure shows sample-specificity although all samples exhibit a similar creep process. All specimens exhibit a critical power-law behavior with an exponent of −0.51 ± 0.06, approximately equal to the theoretical value of −1/2. All samples have a long-term secondary stage characterized by a constant strain rate that dominates the lifetime of a sample. The average creep rate expressed by the total creep strain over the lifetime (tf-t0 for each specimen shows a power-law dependence on the secondary creep rate with an exponent of −1. This could provide a clue to the prediction of the time-to-failure of concrete, based on the monitoring of the creep behavior at the steady stage.

Predicting mortality in patients with heart failure : a pragmatic approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouvy, ML; Heerdink, ER; Leufkens, HGM; Hoes, AW

Objective: To develop a comprehensive and easily applicable prognostic model predicting mortality risk in patients with moderate to severe heart failure. Design: Prospective follow up study. Setting: Seven general hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients: 152 outpatients with heart failure or patients

Prediction of late failure after medical abortion from serial beta-hCG measurements and ultrasonography

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rørbye, C; Nørgaard, M; Nilas, Lisbeth

2004-01-01

on day 15 were greater among late failures than successes. Used as a predictive test, the positive predictive values of these variables were low. CONCLUSION: Neither beta-hCG nor endometrial thickness can be used clinically as diagnostic tests in predicting late failure after medical abortion.......BACKGROUND: Surgical treatment of failed medical abortion may be performed several weeks after initiation of the abortion. There are no recognized methods for early identification of these late failures. We assessed the prognostic values of beta-hCG and ultrasonography in predicting late failure...... thickness by ultrasonography was performed on day 15 after induction of medical abortion. Failures diagnosed after day 15 and within 15 weeks were identified and classified as late failures. All interventions in this group were due to bleeding problems. The predictive values of different absolute...

Prediction of failure strain and burst pressure in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Law, M.; Bowie, G.

2007-01-01

Failure pressures and strains were predicted for a number of burst tests as part of a project to explore failure strain in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe. Twenty-three methods for predicting the burst pressure and six methods of predicting the failure strain are compared with test results. Several methods were identified which gave accurate and reliable estimates of burst pressure. No method of accurately predicting the failure strain was found, though the best was noted

Prediction of failure strain and burst pressure in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Law, M. [Institute of Materials and Engineering Science, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia)]. E-mail: mlx@ansto.gov.au; Bowie, G. [BlueScope Steel Ltd., Level 11, 120 Collins St, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 (Australia)

2007-08-15

Failure pressures and strains were predicted for a number of burst tests as part of a project to explore failure strain in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe. Twenty-three methods for predicting the burst pressure and six methods of predicting the failure strain are compared with test results. Several methods were identified which gave accurate and reliable estimates of burst pressure. No method of accurately predicting the failure strain was found, though the best was noted.

Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

2018-02-01

Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

Narrowing the scope of failure prediction using targeted fault load injection

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, Paul L.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Lin, Alan C.; Mendenhall, Michael J.; Sellers, Andrew J.

2018-05-01

As society becomes more dependent upon computer systems to perform increasingly critical tasks, ensuring that those systems do not fail becomes increasingly important. Many organizations depend heavily on desktop computers for day-to-day operations. Unfortunately, the software that runs on these computers is written by humans and, as such, is still subject to human error and consequent failure. A natural solution is to use statistical machine learning to predict failure. However, since failure is still a relatively rare event, obtaining labelled training data to train these models is not a trivial task. This work presents new simulated fault-inducing loads that extend the focus of traditional fault injection techniques to predict failure in the Microsoft enterprise authentication service and Apache web server. These new fault loads were successful in creating failure conditions that were identifiable using statistical learning methods, with fewer irrelevant faults being created.

Prediction of hospital failure: a post-PPS analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardiner, L R; Oswald, S L; Jahera, J S

1996-01-01

This study investigates the ability of discriminant analysis to provide accurate predictions of hospital failure. Using data from the period following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System, we developed discriminant functions for each of two hospital ownership categories: not-for-profit and proprietary. The resulting discriminant models contain six and seven variables, respectively. For each ownership category, the variables represent four major aspects of financial health (liquidity, leverage, profitability, and efficiency) plus county marketshare and length of stay. The proportion of closed hospitals misclassified as open one year before closure does not exceed 0.05 for either ownership type. Our results show that discriminant functions based on a small set of financial and nonfinancial variables provide the capability to predict hospital failure reliably for both not-for-profit and proprietary hospitals.

Individual Prediction of Heart Failure Among Childhood Cancer Survivors

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Eric J.; Chen, Yan; Kremer, Leontien C.; Breslow, Norman E.; Hudson, Melissa M.; Armstrong, Gregory T.; Border, William L.; Feijen, Elizabeth A.M.; Green, Daniel M.; Meacham, Lillian R.; Meeske, Kathleen A.; Mulrooney, Daniel A.; Ness, Kirsten K.; Oeffinger, Kevin C.; Sklar, Charles A.; Stovall, Marilyn; van der Pal, Helena J.; Weathers, Rita E.; Robison, Leslie L.; Yasui, Yutaka

2015-01-01

Purpose To create clinically useful models that incorporate readily available demographic and cancer treatment characteristics to predict individual risk of heart failure among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. Patients and Methods Survivors in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) free of significant cardiovascular disease 5 years after cancer diagnosis (n = 13,060) were observed through age 40 years for the development of heart failure (ie, requiring medications or heart transplantation or leading to death). Siblings (n = 4,023) established the baseline population risk. An additional 3,421 survivors from Emma Children's Hospital (Amsterdam, the Netherlands), the National Wilms Tumor Study, and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study were used to validate the CCSS prediction models. Results Heart failure occurred in 285 CCSS participants. Risk scores based on selected exposures (sex, age at cancer diagnosis, and anthracycline and chest radiotherapy doses) achieved an area under the curve of 0.74 and concordance statistic of 0.76 at or through age 40 years. Validation cohort estimates ranged from 0.68 to 0.82. Risk scores were collapsed to form statistically distinct low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, corresponding to cumulative incidences of heart failure at age 40 years of 0.5% (95% CI, 0.2% to 0.8%), 2.4% (95% CI, 1.8% to 3.0%), and 11.7% (95% CI, 8.8% to 14.5%), respectively. In comparison, siblings had a cumulative incidence of 0.3% (95% CI, 0.1% to 0.5%). Conclusion Using information available to clinicians soon after completion of childhood cancer therapy, individual risk for subsequent heart failure can be predicted with reasonable accuracy and discrimination. These validated models provide a framework on which to base future screening strategies and interventions. PMID:25287823

An Integrated Model to Predict Corporate Failure of Listed Companies in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nisansala Wijekoon

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The primary objective of this study is to develop an integrated model to predict corporate failure of listed companies in Sri Lanka. The logistic regression analysis was employed to a data set of 70 matched-pairs of failed and non-failed companies listed in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE in Sri Lanka over the period 2002 to 2010. A total of fifteen financial ratios and eight corporate governance variables were used as predictor variables of corporate failure. Analysis of the statistical testing results indicated that model consists with both corporate governance variables and financial ratios improved the prediction accuracy to reach 88.57 per cent one year prior to failure. Furthermore, predictive accuracy of this model in all three years prior to failure is above 80 per cent. Hence model is robust in obtaining accurate results for up to three years prior to failure. It was further found that two financial ratios, working capital to total assets and cash flow from operating activities to total assets, and two corporate governance variables, outside director ratio and company audit committee are having more explanatory power to predict corporate failure. Therefore, model developed in this study can assist investors, managers, shareholders, financial institutions, auditors and regulatory agents in Sri Lanka to forecast corporate failure of listed companies.

Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

2008-01-01

Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

Determination and delineation of nodal target volumes for head-and-neck cancer based on patterns of failure in patients receiving definitive and postoperative IMRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chao, K.S. Clifford; Wippold, Franz J.; Ozyigit, Gokhan; Tran, Binh N.; Dempsey, James F.

2002-01-01

Purpose: We present the guidelines for target volume determination and delineation of head-and-neck lymph nodes based on the analysis of the patterns of nodal failure in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods and Materials: Data pertaining to the natural course of nodal metastasis for each head-and-neck cancer subsite were reviewed. A system was established to provide guidance for nodal target volume determination and delineation. Following these guidelines, 126 patients (52 definitive, 74 postoperative) were treated between February 1997 and December 2000 with IMRT for head-and-neck cancer. The median follow-up was 26 months (range 12-55), and the patterns of nodal failure were analyzed. Results: These guidelines define the nodal target volume based on the location of the primary tumor and the probability of microscopic metastasis to the ipsilateral and contralateral (Level I-V) nodal regions. Following these guidelines, persistent or recurrent nodal disease was found in 6 (12%) of 52 patients receiving definitive IMRT, and 7 (9%) of 74 patients receiving postoperative IMRT had failure in the nodal region. Conclusion: On the basis of our clinical experience in implementing inverse-planning IMRT for head-and-neck cancer, we present guidelines using a simplified, but clinically relevant, method for nodal target volume determination and delineation. The intention was to provide a foundation that enables different institutions to exchange clinical experiences in head-and-neck IMRT. These guidelines will be subject to future refinement when the clinical experience in head-and-neck IMRT advances

Prediction value of the Canadian CT head rule and the New Orleans criteria for positive head CT scan and acute neurosurgical procedures in minor head trauma: a multicenter external validation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouida, Wahid; Marghli, Soudani; Souissi, Sami; Ksibi, Hichem; Methammem, Mehdi; Haguiga, Habib; Khedher, Sonia; Boubaker, Hamdi; Beltaief, Kaouthar; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Trimech, Mohamed Naceur; Kerkeni, Wiem; Chebili, Nawfel; Halila, Imen; Rejeb, Imen; Boukef, Riadh; Rekik, Noureddine; Bouhaja, Bechir; Letaief, Mondher; Nouira, Semir

2013-05-01

The New Orleans Criteria and the Canadian CT Head Rule have been developed to decrease the number of normal computed tomography (CT) results in mild head injury. We compare the performance of both decision rules for identifying patients with intracranial traumatic lesions and those who require an urgent neurosurgical intervention after mild head injury. This was an observational cohort study performed between 2008 and 2011 on patients with mild head injury who were aged 10 years or older. We collected prospectively clinical head CT scan findings and outcome. Primary outcome was need for neurosurgical intervention, defined as either death or craniotomy, or the need of intubation within 15 days of the traumatic event. Secondary outcome was the presence of traumatic lesions on head CT scan. New Orleans Criteria and Canadian CT Head Rule decision rules were compared by using sensitivity specifications and positive and negative predictive value. We enrolled 1,582 patients. Neurosurgical intervention was performed in 34 patients (2.1%) and positive CT findings were demonstrated in 218 patients (13.8%). Sensitivity and specificity for need for neurosurgical intervention were 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90% to 100%) and 60% (95% CI 44% to 76%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 82% (95% CI 69% to 95%) and 26% (95% CI 24% to 28%) for the New Orleans Criteria. Negative predictive values for the above-mentioned clinical decision rules were 100% and 99% and positive values were 5% and 2%, respectively, for the Canadian CT Head Rule and New Orleans Criteria. Sensitivity and specificity for clinical significant head CT findings were 95% (95% CI 92% to 98%) and 65% (95% CI 62% to 68%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 86% (95% CI 81% to 91%) and 28% (95% CI 26% to 30%) for the New Orleans Criteria. A similar trend of results was found in the subgroup of patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 15. For patients with mild head injury, the Canadian CT Head Rule had higher

Can radiological changes in lymph node volume during treatment predict success of radiation therapy in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Sanju; Hammond, Alexander; Read, Nancy; Venkatesan, Varagur; Warner, Andrew; Winquist, Eric; Nichols, Anthony

2013-01-01

Assessment of nodal response after radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma is difficult, as both CT and positron emission tomography scanning have limited predictive value for residual disease. We sought to measure changes in nodal volume during RT to determine whether such changes are predictive of nodal disease control. Patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with 70Gy of radical RT (±chemotherapy or anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies) were eligible. Baseline pre-RT scans and cone-beam CT scans done at the outset of treatment and at weeks 3, 5 and 7 (cone-beam CTs 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively) were deformably coregistered, and 3D nodal volumes were measured. Thirty-eight eligible patients were identified. The main primary tumour site was oropharyngeal; most patients had stage IVa disease. Twenty-seven patients received concurrent platinum-based chemotherapy, 10 received only an EGFR inhibitor with RT and one received RT alone. Twelve patients had a failure in the neck. After week 1 of treatment, a 4% mean decrease in nodal volume was observed, increasing to 40% at week 7. Platinum-based chemotherapy achieved significantly greater decreases in nodal volume than EGFR inhibitors (44 vs. 25%; P=0.026). Advanced tumour stage predicted neck failure (P=0.002), but nodal volumes did not correlate with neck control. Changes in nodal volume are minimal initially during RT but accelerate during the latter weeks of therapy. This study suggests that chemotherapy achieves a greater decrease in nodal volume than EGFR inhibitors and that nodal changes do not predict disease control in the neck.

Prediction of Ductile Failure in the Stretch-Forming of AA2024 Sheets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vallellano, C.; Guzman, C.; Garcia-Lomas, F. J.

2007-01-01

A number of ductile failure criteria are nowadays being used to predict the formability of aluminium alloy sheets. Generally speaking, integral criteria (e.g. those proposed by Cockcroft and Latham, Brozzo et al., Oyane et al Chaouadi et al., etc.) have been probed to work well when the principal strains are of opposite sign, i.e. in the left side of the Forming Limit Diagram (FLD). However, when tensile biaxial strains are present, as occurs in stretch-forming practice, their predictions are usually very poor and even non-conservatives. As an alternative, local criteria, such as the classical Tresca's and Bressan and Williams' criteria, have demonstrated a good capability to predict the failure in some automotive aluminum alloys under stretching. The present work analyses experimentally and numerically the failure in AA2024-T3 sheets subjected to biaxial stretching. A series of out-of-plane stretching tests have been simulated using ABAQUS. The experimental and the numerical FLD for different failure criteria are compared. The influence on the failure of the hydrostatic pressure and the normal stress to the fracture plane is also discussed

A physical probabilistic model to predict failure rates in buried PVC pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, P.; Burn, S.; Moglia, M.; Gould, S.

2007-01-01

For older water pipeline materials such as cast iron and asbestos cement, future pipe failure rates can be extrapolated from large volumes of existing historical failure data held by water utilities. However, for newer pipeline materials such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), only limited failure data exists and confident forecasts of future pipe failures cannot be made from historical data alone. To solve this problem, this paper presents a physical probabilistic model, which has been developed to estimate failure rates in buried PVC pipelines as they age. The model assumes that under in-service operating conditions, crack initiation can occur from inherent defects located in the pipe wall. Linear elastic fracture mechanics theory is used to predict the time to brittle fracture for pipes with internal defects subjected to combined internal pressure and soil deflection loading together with through-wall residual stress. To include uncertainty in the failure process, inherent defect size is treated as a stochastic variable, and modelled with an appropriate probability distribution. Microscopic examination of fracture surfaces from field failures in Australian PVC pipes suggests that the 2-parameter Weibull distribution can be applied. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to estimate lifetime probability distributions for pipes with internal defects, subjected to typical operating conditions. As with inherent defect size, the 2-parameter Weibull distribution is shown to be appropriate to model uncertainty in predicted pipe lifetime. The Weibull hazard function for pipe lifetime is then used to estimate the expected failure rate (per pipe length/per year) as a function of pipe age. To validate the model, predicted failure rates are compared to aggregated failure data from 17 UK water utilities obtained from the United Kingdom Water Industry Research (UKWIR) National Mains Failure Database. In the absence of actual operating pressure data in the UKWIR database, typical

Prediction of failures in linear systems with the use of tolerance ranges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gadzhiev, Ch.M.

1993-01-01

The problem of predicting the technical state of an object can be stated in a general case as that of predicting potential failures on the basis of a quantitative evaluation of the predicted parameters in relation to the set of tolerances on these parameters. The main stages in the prediction are collecting and preparing source data on the prehistory of the predicted phenomenon, forming a mathematical model of this phenomenon, working out the algorithm for the prediction, and adopting a solution from the prediction results. The final two stages of prediction are considered in this article. The prediction algorithm is proposed based on construction of the tolerance range for the signal of error between output coordinates of the system and its mathematical model. A solution regarding possible occurrence of failure in the system is formulated as a result of comparison of the tolerance range and the found confidence interval. 5 refs

Predicting the Failure of Dental Implants Using Supervised Learning Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Hui Liu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Prosthodontic treatment has been a crucial part of dental treatment for patients with full mouth rehabilitation. Dental implant surgeries that replace conventional dentures using titanium fixtures have become the top choice. However, because of the wide-ranging scope of implant surgeries, patients’ body conditions, surgeons’ experience, and the choice of implant system should be considered during treatment. The higher price charged by dental implant treatments compared to conventional dentures has led to a rush among medical staff; therefore, the future impact of surgeries has not been analyzed in detail, resulting in medial disputes. Previous literature on the success factors of dental implants is mainly focused on single factors such as patients’ systemic diseases, operation methods, or prosthesis types for statistical correlation significance analysis. This study developed a prediction model for providing an early warning mechanism to reduce the chances of dental implant failure. We collected the clinical data of patients who received artificial dental implants at the case hospital for a total of 8 categories and 20 variables. Supervised learning techniques such as decision tree (DT, support vector machines, logistic regressions, and classifier ensembles (i.e., Bagging and AdaBoost were used to analyze the prediction of the failure of dental implants. The results show that DT with both Bagging and Adaboost techniques possesses the highest prediction performance for the failure of dental implant (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC: 0.741; the analysis also revealed that the implant systems affect dental implant failure. The model can help clinical surgeons to reduce medical failures by choosing the optimal implant system and prosthodontics treatments for their patients.

Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

Science.gov (United States)

Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

2017-12-01

Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from 20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors Predicting Treatment Failure in Patients Treated with Iodine-131 for Graves’ Disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manohar, Kuruva; Mittal, Bhagwant Rai; Bhoil, Amit; Bhattacharya, Anish; Dutta, Pinaki; Bhansali, Anil

2013-01-01

Treatment of Graves' disease with iodine-131 ( 131 I) is well-known; however, all patients do not respond to a single dose of 131 I and may require higher and repeated doses. This study was carried out to identify the factors, which can predict treatment failure to a single dose of 131 I treatment in these patients. Data of 150 patients with Graves' disease treated with 259-370 MBq of 131 I followed-up for at least 1-year were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was used to predict factors which can predict treatment failure, such as age, sex, duration of disease, grade of goiter, duration of treatment with anti-thyroid drugs, mean dosage of anti-thyroid drugs used, 99m Tc-pertechnetate ( 99m TcO 4 - ) uptake at 20 min, dose of 131 I administered, total triiodothyronine and thyroxine levels. Of the 150 patients, 25 patients required retreatment within 1 year of initial treatment with 131 I. Logistic regression analysis revealed that male sex and 99m TcO 4 - uptake were associated with treatment failure. On receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, area under the curve (AUC) was significant for 99m TcO 4 - uptake predicting treatment failure (AUC = 0.623; P = 0.039). Optimum cutoff for 99m TcO 4 - uptake was 17.75 with a sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 66% to predict treatment failure. Patients with >17.75% 99m TcO 4 - uptake had odds ratio of 3.14 (P = 0.014) for treatment failure and male patients had odds ratio of 1.783 for treatment failure. Our results suggest that male patients and patients with high pre-treatment 99m TcO 4 - uptake are more likely to require repeated doses of 131 I to achieve complete remission

Predictive Simulation of Material Failure Using Peridynamics -- Advanced Constitutive Modeling, Verification and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-31

AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0309 Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics- advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation... Self -explanatory. 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER. Enter all unique alphanumeric report numbers assigned by the performing organization, e.g...for public release. Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics-advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation John T

Predictive Factors of Respiratory Failure in Children with Guillain-Barre Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nemat Bilan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction:Guillain-Barre Syndrome(GBS is the most common cause of acute flaccid paralysis. Respiratory failure is the most serious short-term complication of GBS and invasive mechanical ventilation is required in 30% of patients.moreover,60% of those who are intubated develop major complications including pnemonia,sepsis,GI bleeding and pulmonary embolism. Thus respiratory failure prediction is crucial. the aim of this study was to determine clinical predictors of respiratory failure to avoid respiratory distress and aspiration.Methods and materials: in a cross sectional and analytical study 140 patients with clinically diagnosis of Guillain-Barre Syndrome were enrolled in study,from october 2008 to october 2014. .demographic data,nerologic examination,cranial nerve and autonomic nervous system involvement, and respiratory failure were recorded prospectively.Results:15 out of 140 patients(10,7% developed respiratory failure and underwent mechanical ventilation.the male/female ratio in patients with respiratory failure and patients without respiratory involvement were (53%/(47% and (54%/(46% respectively(p-value:0.4.the mean age in these two groups were 2,7±1,9 and 5,5±3,2(p-value:0,003.cranial nerve involvement (7,9,10 was recorded in patients with respiratory failure and without respiratory failure54% and25% respectively (p-value:0,03.absent upper limb deep tendon reflexes in these two groups were 70% and 44% respectively.(p-value:0,03 and autonomic nervous system involvement 24% vs. 14%(p-value:0,3.conclusion : our study suggests that younger age , cranial nerve involvement and absent upper limb deep tendon reflexes are predictive factors of respiratory failure in patients with Guillain-Barre Syndrome(GBS.

Heart Failure: Diagnosis, Severity Estimation and Prediction of Adverse Events Through Machine Learning Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evanthia E. Tripoliti

Full Text Available Heart failure is a serious condition with high prevalence (about 2% in the adult population in developed countries, and more than 8% in patients older than 75 years. About 3–5% of hospital admissions are linked with heart failure incidents. Heart failure is the first cause of admission by healthcare professionals in their clinical practice. The costs are very high, reaching up to 2% of the total health costs in the developed countries. Building an effective disease management strategy requires analysis of large amount of data, early detection of the disease, assessment of the severity and early prediction of adverse events. This will inhibit the progression of the disease, will improve the quality of life of the patients and will reduce the associated medical costs. Toward this direction machine learning techniques have been employed. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-the-art of the machine learning methodologies applied for the assessment of heart failure. More specifically, models predicting the presence, estimating the subtype, assessing the severity of heart failure and predicting the presence of adverse events, such as destabilizations, re-hospitalizations, and mortality are presented. According to the authors' knowledge, it is the first time that such a comprehensive review, focusing on all aspects of the management of heart failure, is presented. Keywords: Heart failure, Diagnosis, Prediction, Severity estimation, Classification, Data mining

Accuracy of Computed Tomography for Predicting Pathologic Nodal Extracapsular Extension in Patients With Head-and-Neck Cancer Undergoing Initial Surgical Resection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prabhu, Roshan S., E-mail: roshansprabhu@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Magliocca, Kelly R. [Department of Pathology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Hanasoge, Sheela [Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Aiken, Ashley H.; Hudgins, Patricia A. [Department of Radiology and Imaging Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Hall, William A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Chen, Susie A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, Texas (United States); Eaton, Bree R.; Higgins, Kristin A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Saba, Nabil F. [Department of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Beitler, Jonathan J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States)

2014-01-01

Purpose: Nodal extracapsular extension (ECE) in patients with head-and-neck cancer increases the loco-regional failure risk and is an indication for adjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT). To reduce the risk of requiring trimodality therapy, patients with head-and-neck cancer who are surgical candidates are often treated with definitive CRT when preoperative computed tomographic imaging suggests radiographic ECE. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of preoperative CT imaging for predicting pathologic nodal ECE (pECE). Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 432 consecutive patients with oral cavity or locally advanced/nonfunctional laryngeal cancer who underwent preoperative CT imaging before initial surgical resection and neck dissection. Specimens with pECE had the extent of ECE graded on a scale from 1 to 4. Results: Radiographic ECE was documented in 46 patients (10.6%), and pECE was observed in 87 (20.1%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 43.7%, 97.7%, 82.6%, and 87.3%, respectively. The sensitivity of radiographic ECE increased from 18.8% for grade 1 to 2 ECE, to 52.9% for grade 3, and 72.2% for grade 4. Radiographic ECE criteria of adjacent structure invasion was a better predictor than irregular borders/fat stranding for pECE. Conclusions: Radiographic ECE has poor sensitivity, but excellent specificity for pECE in patients who undergo initial surgical resection. PPV and NPV are reasonable for clinical decision making. The performance of preoperative CT imaging increased as pECE grade increased. Patients with resectable head-and-neck cancer with radiographic ECE based on adjacent structure invasion are at high risk for high-grade pECE requiring adjuvant CRT when treated with initial surgery; definitive CRT as an alternative should be considered where appropriate.

Elemental Water Impact Test: Phase 3 Plunge Depth of a 36-Inch Aluminum Tank Head

Science.gov (United States)

Vassilakos, Gregory J.

2014-01-01

Spacecraft are being designed based on LS-DYNA water landing simulations. The Elemental Water Impact Test (EWIT) series was undertaken to assess the accuracy of LS-DYNA water impact simulations. Phase 3 featured a composite tank head that was tested at a range of heights to verify the ability to predict structural failure of composites. To support planning for Phase 3, a test series was conducted with an aluminum tank head dropped from heights of 2, 6, 10, and 12 feet to verify that the test article would not impact the bottom of the test pool. This report focuses on the comparisons of the measured plunge depths to LS-DYNA predictions. The results for the tank head model demonstrated the following. 1. LS-DYNA provides accurate predictions for peak accelerations. 2. LS-DYNA consistently under-predicts plunge depth. An allowance of at least 20% should be added to the LS-DYNA predictions. 3. The LS-DYNA predictions for plunge depth are relatively insensitive to the fluid-structure coupling stiffness.

Automatic stimulation of experiments and learning based on prediction failure recognition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Juarez Cordova, A.G.; Kahl, B.; Henne, T.; Prassler, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we focus on the task of automatically and autonomously initiating experimentation and learning based on the recognition of prediction failure. We present a mechanism that utilizes conceptual knowledge to predict the outcome of robot actions, observes their execution and indicates when

Individual Prediction of Heart Failure Among Childhood Cancer Survivors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chow, Eric J.; Chen, Yan; Kremer, Leontien C.; Breslow, Norman E.; Hudson, Melissa M.; Armstrong, Gregory T.; Border, William L.; Feijen, Elizabeth A. M.; Green, Daniel M.; Meacham, Lillian R.; Meeske, Kathleen A.; Mulrooney, Daniel A.; Ness, Kirsten K.; Oeffinger, Kevin C.; Sklar, Charles A.; Stovall, Marilyn; van der Pal, Helena J.; Weathers, Rita E.; Robison, Leslie L.; Yasui, Yutaka

2015-01-01

Purpose To create clinically useful models that incorporate readily available demographic and cancer treatment characteristics to predict individual risk of heart failure among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. Patients and Methods Survivors in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) free of

A model-based prognostic approach to predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwon, Dae Il; Yoon, Jeong Ah [Dept. of System Design and Control Engineering. Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

The reliability of electronic assemblies is largely affected by the health of interconnects, such as solder joints, which provide mechanical, electrical and thermal connections between circuit components. During field lifecycle conditions, interconnects are often subjected to a DC open circuit, one of the most common interconnect failure modes, due to cracking. An interconnect damaged by cracking is sometimes extremely hard to detect when it is a part of a daisy-chain structure, neighboring with other healthy interconnects that have not yet cracked. This cracked interconnect may seem to provide a good electrical contact due to the compressive load applied by the neighboring healthy interconnects, but it can cause the occasional loss of electrical continuity under operational and environmental loading conditions in field applications. Thus, cracked interconnects can lead to the intermittent failure of electronic assemblies and eventually to permanent failure of the product or the system. This paper introduces a model-based prognostic approach to quantitatively detect and predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis and particle filtering. Impedance analysis was previously reported as a sensitive means of detecting incipient changes at the surface of interconnects, such as cracking, based on the continuous monitoring of RF impedance. To predict the time to failure, particle filtering was used as a prognostic approach using the Paris model to address the fatigue crack growth. To validate this approach, mechanical fatigue tests were conducted with continuous monitoring of RF impedance while degrading the solder joints under test due to fatigue cracking. The test results showed the RF impedance consistently increased as the solder joints were degraded due to the growth of cracks, and particle filtering predicted the time to failure of the interconnects similarly to their actual timesto- failure based on the early sensitivity of RF impedance.

Fall Risk Assessment Predicts Fall-Related Injury, Hip Fracture, and Head Injury in Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsson, Martin; Eriksson, Joel; Larsson, Berit; Odén, Anders; Johansson, Helena; Lorentzon, Mattias

2016-11-01

To investigate the role of a fall risk assessment, using the Downton Fall Risk Index (DFRI), in predicting fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and death, in a large cohort of older women and men residing in Sweden. Cross sectional observational study. Sweden. Older adults (mean age 82.4 ± 7.8) who had a fall risk assessment using the DFRI at baseline (N = 128,596). Information on all fall-related injuries, all fall-related head injuries and hip fractures, and all-cause mortality was collected from the Swedish Patient Register and Cause of Death Register. The predictive role of DFRI was calculated using Poisson regression models with age, sex, height, weight, and comorbidities as covariates, taking time to outcome or end of study into account. During a median follow-up of 253 days (interquartile range 90-402 days) (>80,000 patient-years), 15,299 participants had a fall-related injury, 2,864 a head injury, and 2,557 a hip fracture, and 23,307 died. High fall risk (DFRI ≥3) independently predicted fall-related injury (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-1.49), hip fracture (HR = 1.51, 95% CI =1.38-1.66), head injury (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03-1.22), and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.35-1.43). DFRI more strongly predicted head injury (HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.21-1.36 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.11) and hip fracture (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.30-1.53 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.05-1.11) in 70-year old men than in 90-year old women (P Fall risk assessment using DFRI independently predicts fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and all-cause mortality in older men and women, indicating its clinical usefulness to identify individuals who would benefit from interventions. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: clinical factors predicting stent failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Lee, Yuan-Ju; Huang, Kuo-How; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liang, Po-Chin

2014-06-01

To provide clinical outcomes of the Resonance metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction, as well as clinical factors predicting stent failure. Cancer patients who have received Resonance stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were included for chart review. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms, image studies, and renal function tests. Survival analysis for stent duration was used to estimate patency rate and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 117 stents were inserted successfully into 94 ureteral units in 79 patients. There were no major complications. These stents underwent survival analysis and proportional hazard regression. The median duration for the stents was 5.77 months. In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.043), preoperative serum creatinine level (P=0.0174), and cancer type (P=0.0494) were significant factors associated with stent failure. Cancer treatment before and after stent insertion had no effect on stent duration. Resonance stents are effective and safe in relieving malignant ureteral obstructions. Old age and high serum creatinine level are predictors for stent failure. Stents in patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers have longer functional duration.

Reliability prediction of engineering systems with competing failure modes due to component degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Young Kap

2011-01-01

Reliability of an engineering system depends on two reliability metrics: the mechanical reliability, considering component failures, that a functional system topology is maintained and the performance reliability of adequate system performance in each functional configuration. Component degradation explains not only the component aging processes leading to failure in function, but also system performance change over time. Multiple competing failure modes for systems with degrading components in terms of system functionality and system performance are considered in this paper with the assumption that system functionality is not independent of system performance. To reduce errors in system reliability prediction, this paper tries to extend system performance reliability prediction methods in open literature through combining system mechanical reliability from component reliabilities and system performance reliability. The extended reliability prediction method provides a useful way to compare designs as well as to determine effective maintenance policy for efficient reliability growth. Application of the method to an electro-mechanical system, as an illustrative example, is explained in detail, and the prediction results are discussed. Both mechanical reliability and performance reliability are compared to total system reliability in terms of reliability prediction errors

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Clinical presentation at first heart failure hospitalization does not predict recurrent heart failure admission.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosztin, Annamaria; Costa, Jason; Moss, Arthur J; Biton, Yitschak; Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Solomon, Scott D; Geller, Laszlo; McNitt, Scott; Polonsky, Bronislava; Merkely, Bela; Kutyifa, Valentina

2017-11-01

There are limited data on whether clinical presentation at first heart failure (HF) hospitalization predicts recurrent HF events. We aimed to assess predictors of recurrent HF hospitalizations in mild HF patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Data on HF hospitalizations were prospectively collected for patients enrolled in MADIT-CRT. Predictors of recurrent HF hospitalization (HF2) after the first HF hospitalization were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models including baseline covariates and clinical presentation or management at first HF hospitalization. There were 193 patients with first HF hospitalization, and 156 patients with recurrent HF events. Recurrent HF rate after the first HF hospitalization was 43% at 1 year, 52% at 2 years, and 55% at 2.5 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, medical treatment, or clinical management of HF at first HF admission was not predictive for HF2. Baseline covariates predicting recurrent HF hospitalization included prior HF hospitalization (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.15-2.20, P = 0.005), digitalis therapy (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.20, P = 0.008), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume >240 mL (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.17-2.25, P = 0.004). Recurrent HF events are frequent following the first HF hospitalization in patients with implanted implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Neither clinical presentation nor clinical management during first HF admission was predictive of recurrent HF. Prior HF hospitalization, digitalis therapy, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume at enrolment predicted recurrent HF hospitalization, and these covariates could be used as surrogate markers for identifying a high-risk cohort. © 2017 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

A Basic Study on the Failure of Lower Head of Nuclear Reactor Vessel by Molten Core in Severe Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Jongrea; Bang, Kwanghyun; Bae, Jihoon; Kim, Changsung; Jeon, Jongwon

2013-01-01

This paper is analyzed by transient analysis for eight hours. Thermal conditions were carried out to interpret the data obtained from the existing experiment, and the pressures analyses were conducted considering pressure drop by applying the 1MPa. According to the analysis, a portion of the nozzle and the head is soluble, while nozzles and heads were not separated. This structural analysis has a comparative analysis of strain and displacement due to the existence of creep. Without the creep effect, strain shows 2.7% in 2D model and 4.6 % in 3D model. And, strain shows 2.9% in 2D model and 4.7 % in 3D model, in creep effect condition. Both case is satisfied to allowable strain. When comparing both analyses about creep effect, strain differences are 0.2% in 2D model and 0.1% in 3D model. Thus, it can be seen that in these analyses, the effect that creep has is minor. The purpose of this study is to develop the analysis techniques of the reactor vessel lower head under in-vessel pressure loads and thermal loads in severe accident. First, the temperature distribution in accordance with time using the thermal loads imposed on the lower head inner wall for simplified 2D model and 3D model respectively was analyzed. Second, the pressure applied on the lower head inner wall, was calculated by using the simplified 2D model and 3D model respectively. And The results of the analysis are indicated by equivalent von-mises stress and sum of the displacement, respectively. Third, the creep model and parameters used in the calculation were selected as well as the curve fitting of the experimental creep data. The plastic strain is the major cause of failure of the reactor pressure vessel. However, it can be calculated in this study that creep is not an important factor of failure of the reactor pressure vessel given the above mechanical and thermal loads

Scoring system based on electrocardiogram features to predict the type of heart failure in patients with chronic heart failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendry Purnasidha Bagaswoto

2016-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Heart failure is divided into heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF. Additional studies are required to distinguish between these two types of HF. A previous study showed that HFrEF is less likely when ECG findings are normal. This study aims to create a scoring system based on ECG findings that will predict the type of HF. We performed a cross-sectional study analyzing ECG and echocardiographic data from 110 subjects. HFrEF was defined as an ejection fraction ≤40%. Fifty people were diagnosed with HFpEF and 60 people suffered from HFrEF. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed certain ECG variables that were independent predictors of HFrEF i.e., LAH, QRS duration >100 ms, RBBB, ST-T segment changes and prolongation of the QT interval. Based on ROC curve analysis, we obtained a score for HFpEF of -1 to +3, while HFrEF had a score of +4 to +6 with 76% sensitivity, 96% specificity, 95% positive predictive value, an 80% negative predictive value and an accuracy of 86%. The scoring system derived from this study, including the presence or absence of LAH, QRS duration >100 ms, RBBB, ST-T segment changes and prolongation of the QT interval can be used to predict the type of HF with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity

The head tracks and gaze predicts: how the world's best batters hit a ball.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David L Mann

Full Text Available Hitters in fast ball-sports do not align their gaze with the ball throughout ball-flight; rather, they use predictive eye movement strategies that contribute towards their level of interceptive skill. Existing studies claim that (i baseball and cricket batters cannot track the ball because it moves too quickly to be tracked by the eyes, and that consequently (ii batters do not - and possibly cannot - watch the ball at the moment they hit it. However, to date no studies have examined the gaze of truly elite batters. We examined the eye and head movements of two of the world's best cricket batters and found both claims do not apply to these batters. Remarkably, the batters coupled the rotation of their head to the movement of the ball, ensuring the ball remained in a consistent direction relative to their head. To this end, the ball could be followed if the batters simply moved their head and kept their eyes still. Instead of doing so, we show the elite batters used distinctive eye movement strategies, usually relying on two predictive saccades to anticipate (i the location of ball-bounce, and (ii the location of bat-ball contact, ensuring they could direct their gaze towards the ball as they hit it. These specific head and eye movement strategies play important functional roles in contributing towards interceptive expertise.

Microproteinuria Predicts Organ Failure in Patients Presenting with Acute Pancreatitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bertilsson, Sara; Swärd, Per; Håkansson, Anders

2016-01-01

patients were included (14 % with organ failure; 6 % with severe AP). The α1-microglobulin-, albumin-, and IgG/creatinine ratios correlated with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein 48 h after admission (r = 0.47–0.61, p .... Urine samples were collected upon admission, 12–24 h after admission, and 3 months post-discharge for calculation of urine α1-microglobulin-, albumin-, IgG-, and IgM/creatinine ratios. Data regarding AP etiology, severity, and development of organ failure were registered. Results: Overall, 92 AP...... organ failure (p creatinine ratio upon admission predicted organ failure [adjusted odds ratio 1.286, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.024–1.614] with similar accuracy (AUROC 0.81, 95 % CI 0.69–0.94) as the more complex APACHE II score (AUROC 0.86, 95 % CI 0...

Assessment of the de Hirsch Predictive Index Tests of Reading Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Askov, Warren; And Others

The predictive validity and the general usability of a battery of 10 tests reported by de Hirsch, Jansky, and Langford, the de Hirsch Predictive Index Tests of reading failure, were examined. The de Hirsch battery was administered to 433 kindergarten children in six public schools. When the pupils entered first grade, the Metropolitan Readiness…

Role of CT/PET in predicting nodal disease in head and neck cancers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singham, S.; Iyer, G.; Clark, J.

2009-01-01

Full text:Introduction: Pre-treatment evaluation of the presence of cervical nodal metastases is important in head and neck cancers and has major prognostic implications. In this study, we aim to determine the accuracy of CT/PET as a tool for identifying such metastases. Methods: All patients from Royal Prince Alfred and Liverpool Hospitals, who underwent CT/PET for any cancer arising from the head and neck, and who underwent subsequent surgery (which included a neck dissection) within 8 weeks of the CT/PET were included. Nodal staging was undertaken by utilising imaging-based nodal classification, and comparison with pathologic data from the surgical specimen was made. PET was considered positive if the SUV was greater than 2. Results: We identified 111 patients from the above criteria. 80 of such patients were treated for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). CT/PET identified unsuspected metastatic disease in 6 patients. Correlation of CT/PET findings and the presence of disease at the primary site: sensitivity: 98%, specificity: 93%, positive predictive value (PPV): 98% and negative predictive value (NPV): 93%. Correlating CT/PET findings with the presence of nodal disease at any level: sensitivity: 95%, specificity: 88%, PPV: 95% and NPV: 88%. CT/PET was anatomically accurate in predicting the site of metastases in 62/74 (84%). Conclusion: PET is accurate in predicting both presence of nodal metastases and the level of involvement. CT/PET should be undertaken as a pre-operative tool to assist in planning the extent of surgery required in head and neck cancers.

Sonographical predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Brik, Maia; Mateos, Silvia; Fernandez-Buhigas, Irene; Garbayo, Paloma; Costa, Gloria; Santacruz, Belen

2017-02-01

Predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy were evaluated. A prospective study including 245 women attending induction of labour was performed. The inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies, gestational age 37-42 weeks and the main outcomes were failure of induction, induction to delivery interval and mode of delivery. Women with a longer cervical length prior to induction (CLpi) had a higher rate of failure of induction (30.9 ± 6.8 vs. 23.9 ± 9.3, p labour.

Improved failure prediction in forming simulations through pre-strain mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Upadhya, Siddharth; Staupendahl, Daniel; Heuse, Martin; Tekkaya, A. Erman

2018-05-01

The sensitivity of sheared edges of advanced high strength steel (AHSS) sheets to cracking during subsequent forming operations and the difficulty to predict this failure with any degree of accuracy using conventionally used FLC based failure criteria is a major problem plaguing the manufacturing industry. A possible method that allows for an accurate prediction of edge cracks is the simulation of the shearing operation and carryover of this model into a subsequent forming simulation. But even with an efficient combination of a solid element shearing operation and a shell element forming simulation, the need for a fine mesh, and the resulting high computation time makes this approach not viable from an industry point of view. The crack sensitivity of sheared edges is due to work hardening in the shear-affected zone (SAZ). A method to predict plastic strains induced by the shearing process is to measure the hardness after shearing and calculate the ultimate tensile strength as well as the flow stress. In combination with the flow curve, the relevant strain data can be obtained. To eliminate the time-intensive shearing simulation necessary to obtain the strain data in the SAZ, a new pre-strain mapping approach is proposed. The pre-strains to be mapped are, hereby, determined from hardness values obtained in the proximity of the sheared edge. To investigate the performance of this approach the ISO/TS 16630 hole expansion test was simulated with shell elements for different materials, whereby the pre-strains were mapped onto the edge of the hole. The hole expansion ratios obtained from such pre-strain mapped simulations are in close agreement with the experimental results. Furthermore, the simulations can be carried out with no increase in computation time, making this an interesting and viable solution for predicting edge failure due to shearing.

Predicting Plan Failure by Monitoring Action Sequences and Duration

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Giovani Parente FARIAS

2017-07-01

Full Text Available An agent can attempt to achieve multiple goals and each goal can be achieved by applying various different plans. Anticipating failures in agent plan execution is important to enable an agent to develop strategies to avoid or circumvent such failures, allowing the agent to achieve its goal. Plan recognition can be used to infer which plans are being executed from observations of sequences of activities being performed by an agent. Symbolic Plan Recognition is an algorithm that represents knowledge about the agents under observation in the form of a plan library. In this work, we use this symbolic algorithm to find out which plan the agent is performing and we develop a failure prediction system, based on information available in the plan library and in a simplified calendar which manages the goals the agent has to achieve. This failure predictor is able to monitor the sequence of agent actions and detects if an action is taking too long or does not match the plan that the agent was expected to be performing. We have successfully employed this approach in a health-care prototype system.

Micromechanics-based damage model for failure prediction in cold forming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, X.Z.; Chan, L.C., E-mail: lc.chan@polyu.edu.hk

2017-04-06

The purpose of this study was to develop a micromechanics-based damage (micro-damage) model that was concerned with the evolution of micro-voids for failure prediction in cold forming. Typical stainless steel SS316L was selected as the specimen material, and the nonlinear isotropic hardening rule was extended to describe the large deformation of the specimen undergoing cold forming. A micro-focus high-resolution X-ray computed tomography (CT) system was employed to trace and measure the micro-voids inside the specimen directly. Three-dimensional (3D) representative volume element (RVE) models with different sizes and spatial locations were reconstructed from the processed CT images of the specimen, and the average size and volume fraction of micro-voids (VFMV) for the specimen were determined via statistical analysis. Subsequently, the micro-damage model was compiled as a user-defined material subroutine into the finite element (FE) package ABAQUS. The stress-strain responses and damage evolutions of SS316L specimens under tensile and compressive deformations at different strain rates were predicted and further verified experimentally. It was concluded that the proposed micro-damage model is convincing for failure prediction in cold forming of the SS316L material.

The prediction problems of VVER fuel element cladding failure theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pelykh, S.N.; Maksimov, M.V.; Ryabchikov, S.D.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Fuel cladding failure forecasting is based on the fuel load history and the damage distribution. • The limit damage parameter is exceeded, though limit stresses are not reached. • The damage parameter plays a significant role in predicting the cladding failure. • The proposed failure probability criterion can be used to control the cladding tightness. - Abstract: A method for forecasting of VVER fuel element (FE) cladding failure due to accumulation of deformation damage parameter, taking into account the fuel assembly (FA) loading history and the damage parameter distribution among FEs included in the FA, has been developed. Using the concept of conservative FE groups, it is shown that the safety limit for damage parameter is exceeded for some FA rearrangement, though the limits for circumferential and equivalent stresses are not reached. This new result contradicts the wide-spread idea that the damage parameter value plays a minor role when estimating the limiting state of cladding. The necessary condition of rearrangement algorithm admissibility and the criterion for minimization of the probability of cladding failure due to damage parameter accumulation have been derived, for using in automated systems controlling the cladding tightness.

Failure Predictions for Graphite Reflector Bricks in the Very High Temperature Reactor with the Prismatic Core Design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Gyanender, E-mail: sing0550@umn.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Minnesota, 111, Church St. SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Fok, Alex [Minnesota Dental Research in Biomaterials and Biomechanics, School of Dentistry, University of Minnesota, 515, Delaware St. SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Minnesota, 111, Church St. SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Mantell, Susan [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Minnesota, 111, Church St. SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

2017-06-15

Highlights: • Failure probability of VHTR reflector bricks predicted though crack modeling. • Criterion chosen for defining failure strongly affects the predictions. • Breaching of the CRC could be significantly delayed through crack arrest. • Capability to predict crack initiation and propagation demonstrated. - Abstract: Graphite is used in nuclear reactor cores as a neutron moderator, reflector and structural material. The dimensions and physical properties of graphite change when it is exposed to neutron irradiation. The non-uniform changes in the dimensions and physical properties lead to the build-up of stresses over the course of time in the core components. When the stresses reach the critical limit, i.e. the strength of the material, cracking occurs and ultimately the components fail. In this paper, an explicit crack modeling approach to predict the probability of failure of a VHTR prismatic reactor core reflector brick is presented. Firstly, a constitutive model for graphite is constructed and used to predict the stress distribution in the reflector brick under in-reactor conditions of high temperature and irradiation. Fracture simulations are performed as part of a Monte Carlo analysis to predict the probability of failure. Failure probability is determined based on two different criteria for defining failure time: A) crack initiation and B) crack extension to near control rod channel. A significant difference is found between the failure probabilities based on the two criteria. It is predicted that the reflector bricks will start cracking during the time range of 5–9 years, while breaching of the control rod channels will occur during the period of 11–16 years. The results show that, due to crack arrest, there is a significantly delay between crack initiation and breaching of the control rod channel.

Early Shear Failure Prediction in Incremental Sheet Forming Process Using FEM and ANN

Science.gov (United States)

Moayedfar, Majid; Hanaei, Hengameh; Majdi Rani, Ahmad; Musa, Mohd Azam Bin; Sadegh Momeni, Mohammad

2018-03-01

The application of incremental sheet forming process as a rapid forming technique is rising in variety of industries such as aerospace, automotive and biomechanical purposes. However, the sheet failure is a big challenge in this process which leads wasting lots of materials. Hence, this study tried to propose a method to predict the early sheet failure in this process using mathematical solution. For the feasibility of the study, design of experiment with the respond surface method is employed to extract a set of experiments data for the simulation. The significant forming parameters were recognized and their integration was used for prediction system. Then, the results were inserted to the artificial neural network as input parameters to predict a vast range of applicable parameters avoiding sheet failure in ISF. The value of accuracy R2 ∼0.93 was obtained and the maximum sheet stretch in the depth of 25mm were recorded. The figures generate from the trend of interaction between effective parameters were provided for future studies.

Patterns of Failure and Toxicity after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenfeld, Gordon O.; Amdur, Robert J.; Morris, Christopher G.; Li, Jonathan G.; Hinerman, Russell W.; Mendenhall, William M.

2008-01-01

Purpose: To determine the outcome of patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancer. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the charts of 100 consecutive patients treated with IMRT for squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx (64%), nasopharynx (16%), hypopharynx (14%), and larynx (6%). Most patients were treated with a concomitant boost schedule to 72 Gy. Of the 100 patients, 54 (54%) received adjuvant chemotherapy, mostly concurrent cisplatin. The dosimetry plans for patients with either locoregional failure or Grade 4-5 complications were reviewed and fused over the computed tomography images corresponding with the location of the event. Marginal failures were defined as those that occurred at a region of high-dose falloff, where conventional fields would have provided better coverage. Results: The median follow-up of living patients was 3.1 years (range, 1-5.2 years). The 3-year rate of local control, locoregional control, freedom from relapse, cause-specific survival, and overall survival for all patients was 89%, 87%, 72%, 78%, and 71%, respectively. The 3-year rate of freedom from relapse, cause-specific survival, and overall survival for the 64 oropharynx patients was 86%, 92%, and 84%, respectively. Of the 10 local failures, 2 occurred at the margin of the high-dose planning target volume. Both regional failures occurred within the planning target volume. No locoregional failures occurred outside the planning target volume. Of the 100 patients, 8 and 5 had Grade 4 and 5 complications from treatment, respectively. All patients with Grade 5 complications had received adjuvant chemotherapy. No attempt was made to discriminate between the complications from IMRT and other aspects of the patients' treatment. Conclusion: Intensity-modulated radiotherapy did not compromise the outcome compared with what we have achieved with conventional techniques. The 2 cases of recurrence in the high-dose gradient region highlight the

Head losses prediction and analysis in a bulb turbine draft tube under different operating conditions using unsteady simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Wilhelm, S.; Balarac, G.; Métais, O.; Ségoufin, C.

2016-11-01

Flow prediction in a bulb turbine draft tube is conducted for two operating points using Unsteady RANS (URANS) simulations and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). The inlet boundary condition of the draft tube calculation is a rotating two dimensional velocity profile exported from a RANS guide vane- runner calculation. Numerical results are compared with experimental data in order to validate the flow field and head losses prediction. Velocity profiles prediction is improved with LES in the center of the draft tube compared to URANS results. Moreover, more complex flow structures are obtained with LES. A local analysis of the predicted flow field using the energy balance in the draft tube is then introduced in order to detect the hydrodynamic instabilities responsible for head losses in the draft tube. In particular, the production of turbulent kinetic energy next to the draft tube wall and in the central vortex structure is found to be responsible for a large part of the mean kinetic energy dissipation in the draft tube and thus for head losses. This analysis is used in order to understand the differences in head losses for different operating points. The numerical methodology could then be improved thanks to an in-depth understanding of the local flow topology.

Application of Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA to a Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM Conveyor Belt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Elbadawi

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Fault finding and failure predicting techniques in manufacturing and production systems often involve forecasting failures, their effects, and occurrences. The majority of these techniques predict failures that may appear during the regular system production time. However, they do not estimate the failure modes and they require extensive source code instrumentation. In this study, we suggest an approach for predicting failure occurrences and modes during system production time intervals at the University of Hail (UoH. The aim of this project is to implement failure mode effect and criticality analysis (FMECA on computer integrated manufacturing (CIM conveyors to determine the effect of various failures on the CIM conveyor belt by ranking and prioritizing each failure according to its risk priority number (RPN. We incorporated the results of FMECA in the development of formal specifications of fail-safe CIM conveyor belt systems. The results show that the highest RPN values are for motor over current failure (450, conveyor chase of vibration (400, belt run off at the head pulley (200, accumulated dirt (180, and Bowed belt (150. The study concludes that performing FMECA is highly effective in improving CIM conveyor belt reliability and safety in the mechanical engineering workshop at UoH.

Modeling of Failure Prediction Bayesian Network with Divide-and-Conquer Principle

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Zhiqiang Cai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available For system failure prediction, automatically modeling from historical failure dataset is one of the challenges in practical engineering fields. In this paper, an effective algorithm is proposed to build the failure prediction Bayesian network (FPBN model with data mining technology. First, the conception of FPBN is introduced to describe the state of components and system and the cause-effect relationships among them. The types of network nodes, the directions of network edges, and the conditional probability distributions (CPDs of nodes in FPBN are discussed in detail. According to the characteristics of nodes and edges in FPBN, a divide-and-conquer principle based algorithm (FPBN-DC is introduced to build the best FPBN network structures of different types of nodes separately. Then, the CPDs of nodes in FPBN are calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the built network. Finally, a simulation study of a helicopter convertor model is carried out to demonstrate the application of FPBN-DC. According to the simulations results, the FPBN-DC algorithm can get better fitness value with the lower number of iterations, which verified its effectiveness and efficiency compared with traditional algorithm.

Prediction of time trends in recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Kay; Ingebrigtsen, Tor; Wilsgaard, Tom

2009-01-01

. There was significant improvement of performance after 6 months. APOE-epsilon4 genotype was the only independent factor significantly predicting less improvement. CONCLUSION: The presence of the APOE-epsilon4 allele predicts less recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury....... change. RESULTS: A Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15, traumatic brain injury demonstrated with computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and serum S-100B greater than 0.14 microg/L predicted impaired cognitive performance both at baseline and after 6 months; APOE genotype did not...

Presenting hydrothorax predicts failure of needle aspiration in primary spontaneous pneumothorax.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Kwok Kei; Lui, Chun Tat; Ho, Chik Leung; Tsui, Kwok Leung; Fung, Hin Tat

2016-06-01

The objective was to evaluate if existence of hydrothorax in initial chest radiograph predicts treatment outcome in patients with primary spontaneous pneumothorax who received needle thoracostomy. This is a retrospective cohort study carried out from January 2011 to August 2014 in 1 public hospital in Hong Kong. All consecutive adult patients aged 18years or above who attended the emergency department with the diagnosis of primary spontaneous pneumothorax with needle aspiration performed as primary treatment were included. Age, smoking status, size of pneumothorax, previous history of pneumothorax, aspirated gas volume and presence of hydropneumothorax in initial radiograph were included in the analysis. The outcome was success or failure of the needle aspiration. Logistic regression was used to identify the predicting factors of failure of needle aspiration. There were a total of 127 patients included. Seventy-three patients (57.5%) were successfully treated with no recurrence upon discharge. Among 54 failure cases, 13 patients (10.2%) failed immediately after procedure as evident by chest radiograph and required second treatment. Forty-one patients (32.3%) failed upon subsequent chest radiographs. Multivariate logistic regression showed factors independently associated with the failure of needle aspiration, which included hydropneumothorax in the initial radiograph (odds ratio [OR]=4.47 [1.56i12.83], P=.005), previous history of pneumothorax (OR=3.92 [1.57-9.79], P=.003), and large size of pneumothorax defined as apex-to-cupola distance ≥5cm (OR=2.75 [1.21-6.26], P=.016). Hydropneumothorax, previous history of pneumothorax, and large size were independent predictors of failure of needle aspiration in treatment of primary spontaneous pneumothorax. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failures and suggestions in Earthquake forecasting and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Sacks, S. I.

2013-12-01

Seismologists have had poor success in earthquake prediction. However, wide ranging observations from earlier great earthquakes show that precursory data can exist. In particular, two aspects seem promising. In agreement with simple physical modeling, b-values decrease in highly loaded fault zones for years before failure. Potentially more usefully, in high stress regions, breakdown of dilatant patches leading to failure can yield expelled water-related observations. The volume increase (dilatancy) caused by high shear stresses decreases the pore pressure. Eventually, water flows back in restoring the pore pressure, promoting failure and expelling the extra water. Of course, in a generally stressed region there may be many small patches that fail, such as observed before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Only a few days before the major event will most of the dilatancy breakdown occur in the fault zone itself such as for the Tangshan, 1976 destructive event. Observations of 'water release' effects have been observed before the 1923 great Kanto earthquake, the 1984 Yamasaki event, the 1975 Haicheng and the 1976 Tangshan earthquakes and also the 1995 Kobe earthquake. While there are obvious difficulties in water release observations, not least because there is currently no observational network anywhere, historical data does suggest some promise if we broaden our approach to this difficult subject.

Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Values, and Accuracy of Three Diagnostic Tests to Predict Inferior Alveolar Nerve Blockade Failure in Symptomatic Irreversible Pulpitis

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Daniel Chavarría-Bolaños

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB is the most common anesthetic technique used on mandibular teeth during root canal treatment. Its success in the presence of preoperative inflammation is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and accuracy of three diagnostic tests used to predict IANB failure in symptomatic irreversible pulpitis (SIP. Methodology. A cross-sectional study was carried out on the mandibular molars of 53 patients with SIP. All patients received a single cartridge of mepivacaine 2% with 1 : 100000 epinephrine using the IANB technique. Three diagnostic clinical tests were performed to detect anesthetic failure. Anesthetic failure was defined as a positive painful response to any of the three tests. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, and ROC curves were calculated and compared and significant differences were analyzed. Results. IANB failure was determined in 71.7% of the patients. The sensitivity scores for the three tests (lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access were 0.03, 0.35, and 0.55, respectively, and the specificity score was determined as 1 for all of the tests. Clinically, none of the evaluated tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy (0.30, 0.53, and 0.68 for lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access, resp.. A comparison of the areas under the curve in the ROC analyses showed statistically significant differences between the three tests (p<0.05. Conclusion. None of the analyzed tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy to be considered a reliable diagnostic tool for the prediction of anesthetic failure.

Multiscale Analysis of Head Impacts in Contact Sports

Science.gov (United States)

Guttag, Mark; Sett, Subham; Franck, Jennifer; McNamara, Kyle; Bar-Kochba, Eyal; Crisco, Joseph; Blume, Janet; Franck, Christian

2012-02-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the world's major causes of death and disability. To aid companies in designing safer and improved protective gear and to aid the medical community in producing improved quantitative TBI diagnosis and assessment tools, a multiscale finite element model of the human brain, head and neck is being developed. Recorded impact data from football and hockey helmets instrumented with accelerometers are compared to simulated impact data in the laboratory. Using data from these carefully constructed laboratory experiments, we can quantify impact location, magnitude, and linear and angular accelerations of the head. The resultant forces and accelerations are applied to a fully meshed head-form created from MRI data by Simpleware. With appropriate material properties for each region of the head-form, the Abaqus finite element model can determine the stresses, strains, and deformations in the brain. Simultaneously, an in-vitro cellular TBI criterion is being developed to be incorporated into Abaqus models for the brain. The cell-based injury criterion functions the same way that damage criteria for metals and other materials are used to predict failure in structural materials.

Analysis of Reactor Vessel Lower Head Penetration Tube Failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stempniewicz, Marek

1999-01-01

This paper presents results of two studies, performed to investigate the behavior of the reactor vessel penetration tubes in case of relocation of molten material into the tubes. The first study is on the CORVIS drain line experiment 03/1. Results of pre-test calculations are presented, and compared to the later obtained experimental data. The timing of the drain line melting and the velocity of the debris flowing inside the drain line were predicted correctly, but the penetration depth was clearly underestimated. If the calculations are done using different correlation for the melt-to-wall convective heat transfer, the results are closer to the experiment. It cannot however be concluded that the alternative correlation is more appropriate until other uncertainties are clarified. The second study presents calculations performed for GKN Dodewaard CRD, instrument tubes and drain line. Calculations were performed to estimate whether the tubes have a chance to withstand the first attack of the melt and thus postpone vessel failure until the water in the lower plenum evaporates. Calculations were performed assuming that the melt can move into the tubes without any resistance, e.g. presence of water in the tubes was not taken into account. The results indicate that the critical penetration of the GKN vessel, which is most likely to fail, is the drain line. Results also indicate that external flooding should prevent early tube failure, at least in case of low vessel pressure. (author)

Good Models Gone Bad: Quantifying and Predicting Parameter-Induced Climate Model Simulation Failures

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Brandon, S.; Covey, C. C.; Domyancic, D.; Ivanova, D. P.

2012-12-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Statistical analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation failures of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2). About 8.5% of our POP2 runs failed for numerical reasons at certain combinations of parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. The SVM classifiers readily predict POP2 failures in an independent validation ensemble, and are subsequently used to determine the causes of the failures via a global sensitivity analysis. Four parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity are identified as the major sources of POP2 failures. Our method can be used to improve the robustness of complex scientific models to parameter perturbations and to better steer UQ ensembles. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was funded by the Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project at LLNL under project tracking code 10-SI-013 (UCRL LLNL-ABS-569112).

Studies on core melt behaviour in a BWR pressure vessel lower head

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindholm, I.; Ikonen, K.; Hedberg, K.

1999-01-01

Core debris behaviour in the Nordic BWR lower head was investigated numerically using MELCOR and MAAP4 codes. Lower head failure due to penetration failure was studied with more detailed PASULA code taking thermal boundary conditions from MELCOR calculations. Creep rupture failure mode was examined with the two integral codes. Also, the possibility to prevent vessel failure by late reflooding was assessed in this study. (authors)

Predicting failure response of spot welded joints using recent extensions to the Gurson model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kim Lau

2010-01-01

The plug failure modes of resistance spot welded shear-lab and cross-tension test specimens are studied, using recent extensions to the Gurson model. A comparison of the predicted mechanical response is presented when using either: (i) the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman model (GTN-model), (ii...... is presented. The models are applied to predict failure of specimens containing a fully intact weld nugget as well as a partly removed weld nugget to address the problems of shrinkage voids or larger weld defects. All analysis are carried out by full 3D finite element modelling....

A model for predicting pellet-cladding interaction induced fuel rod failure, based on nonlinear fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jernkvist, L.O.

1993-01-01

A model for predicting pellet-cladding mechanical interaction induced fuel rod failure, suitable for implementation in finite element fuel-performance codes, is presented. Cladding failure is predicted by explicitly modelling the propagation of radial cracks under varying load conditions. Propagation is assumed to be due to either iodine induced stress corrosion cracking or ductile fracture. Nonlinear fracture mechanics concepts are utilized in modelling these two mechanisms of crack growth. The novelty of this approach is that the development of cracks, which may ultimately lead to fuel rod failure, can be treated as a dynamic and time-dependent process. The influence of cyclic loading, ramp rates and material creep on the failure mechanism can thereby be investigated. Results of numerical calculations, in which the failure model has been used to study the dependence of cladding creep rate on crack propagation velocity, are presented. (author)

Assessment of heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate to predict noninvasive ventilation failure in hypoxemic patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Jun; Han, Xiaoli; Bai, Linfu; Zhou, Lintong; Huang, Shicong

2017-02-01

To develop and validate a scale using variables easily obtained at the bedside for prediction of failure of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in hypoxemic patients. The test cohort comprised 449 patients with hypoxemia who were receiving NIV. This cohort was used to develop a scale that considers heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (referred to as the HACOR scale) to predict NIV failure, defined as need for intubation after NIV intervention. The highest possible score was 25 points. To validate the scale, a separate group of 358 hypoxemic patients were enrolled in the validation cohort. The failure rate of NIV was 47.8 and 39.4% in the test and validation cohorts, respectively. In the test cohort, patients with NIV failure had higher HACOR scores at initiation and after 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV than those with successful NIV. At 1 h of NIV the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88, showing good predictive power for NIV failure. Using 5 points as the cutoff value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure were 72.6, 90.2, 87.2, 78.1, and 81.8%, respectively. These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Moreover, the diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure exceeded 80% in subgroups classified by diagnosis, age, or disease severity and also at 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV. Among patients with NIV failure with a HACOR score of >5 at 1 h of NIV, hospital mortality was lower in those who received intubation at ≤12 h of NIV than in those intubated later [58/88 (66%) vs. 138/175 (79%); p = 0.03). The HACOR scale variables are easily obtained at the bedside. The scale appears to be an effective way of predicting NIV failure in hypoxemic patients. Early intubation in high-risk patients may reduce hospital mortality.

A Model to Predict Student Failure in the First Year of the Undergraduate Medical Curriculum

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Gerard J.A. Baars

2017-06-01

Discussion: The earliest moment with the highest specificity to predict student failure in the first-year curriculum seems to be at 6 months. However, additional factors are needed to improve this prediction or to bring forward the predictive moment.

Aberrant GSTP1 promoter methylation predicts short-term prognosis in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, S; Sun, F-K; Fan, Y-C; Shi, C-H; Zhang, Z-H; Wang, L-Y; Wang, K

2015-08-01

Glutathione-S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) methylation has been demonstrated to be associated with oxidative stress induced liver damage in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). To evaluate the methylation level of GSTP1 promoter in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and determine its predictive value for prognosis. One hundred and five patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure, 86 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy controls (HC) were retrospectively enrolled. GSTP1 methylation level in peripheral mononuclear cells (PBMC) was detected by MethyLight. Clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. GSTP1 methylation levels were significantly higher in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (median 16.84%, interquartile range 1.83-59.05%) than those with CHB (median 1.25%, interquartile range 0.48-2.47%; P chronic hepatitis B liver failure group, nonsurvivors showed significantly higher GSTP1 methylation levels (P chronic hepatitis B liver failure, GSTP1 methylation showed significantly better predictive value than MELD score [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.89 vs. 0.72, P chronic hepatitis B liver failure and shows high predictive value for short-term mortality. It might serve as a potential prognostic marker for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Skin Cancer of the Head and Neck With Perineural Invasion: Defining the Clinical Target Volumes Based on the Pattern of Failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gluck, Iris; Ibrahim, Mohannad; Popovtzer, Aron; Teknos, Theodoros N.; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Prince, Mark E.; Moyer, Jeffrey S.; Bradford, Carol R.; Eisbruch, Avraham

2009-01-01

Purpose: To analyze patterns of failure in patients with head-and-neck cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (HNCSCC) and clinical/radiologic evidence of perineural invasion (CPNI), in order to define neural clinical target volume (CTV) for treatment planning. Methods and Materials: Patients treated with three-dimensional (3D) conformal or intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for HNCSCC with CPNI were included in the study. A retrospective review of the clinical charts, radiotherapy (RT) plans and radiologic studies has been conducted. Results: Eleven consecutive patients with HNCSCCs with CPNI were treated from 2000 through 2007. Most patients underwent multiple surgical procedures and RT courses. The most prevalent failure pattern was along cranial nerves (CNs), and multiple CNs were ultimately involved in the majority of cases. In all cases the involved CNs at recurrence were the main nerves innervating the primary tumor sites, as well as their major communicating nerves. We have found several distinct patterns of disease spread along specific CNs depending on the skin regions harboring the primary tumors, including multiple branches of CN V and VII. These patterns and the pertinent anatomy are detailed in the this article. Conclusions: Predictable disease spread patterns along cranial nerves supplying the primary tumor sites were found in this study. Awareness of these patterns, as well as knowledge of the relevant cranial nerve anatomy, should be the basis for CTV definition and delineation for RT treatment planning.

Prediction of Brittle Failure for TBM Tunnels in Anisotropic Rock: A Case Study from Northern Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Dammyr, Øyvind

2016-06-01

Prediction of spalling and rock burst is especially important for hard rock TBM tunneling, because failure can have larger impact than in a drill and blast tunnel and ultimately threaten excavation feasibility. The majority of research on brittle failure has focused on rock types with isotropic behavior. This paper gives a review of existing theory and its application before a 3.5-m-diameter TBM tunnel in foliated granitic gneiss is used as a case to study brittle failure characteristics of anisotropic rock. Important aspects that should be considered in order to predict brittle failure in anisotropic rock are highlighted. Foliation is responsible for considerable strength anisotropy and is believed to influence the preferred side of v-shaped notch development in the investigated tunnel. Prediction methods such as the semi- empirical criterion, the Hoek- Brown brittle parameters, and the non-linear damage initiation and spalling limit method give reliable results; but only as long as the angle between compression axis and foliation in uniaxial compressive tests is relevant, dependent on the relation between tunnel trend/plunge, strike/dip of foliation, and tunnel boundary stresses. It is further demonstrated that local in situ stress variations, for example, due to the presence of discontinuities, can have profound impact on failure predictions. Other carefully documented case studies into the brittle failure nature of rock, in particular anisotropic rock, are encouraged in order to expand the existing and relatively small database. This will be valuable for future TBM planning and construction stages in highly stressed brittle anisotropic rock.

A standardized model for predicting flap failure using indocyanine green dye

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, Terence M.; Moore, Lindsay S.; Warram, Jason M.; Greene, Benjamin J.; Nakhmani, Arie; Korb, Melissa L.; Rosenthal, Eben L.

2016-03-01

Techniques that provide a non-invasive method for evaluation of intraoperative skin flap perfusion are currently available but underutilized. We hypothesize that intraoperative vascular imaging can be used to reliably assess skin flap perfusion and elucidate areas of future necrosis by means of a standardized critical perfusion threshold. Five animal groups (negative controls, n=4; positive controls, n=5; chemotherapy group, n=5; radiation group, n=5; chemoradiation group, n=5) underwent pre-flap treatments two weeks prior to undergoing random pattern dorsal fasciocutaneous flaps with a length to width ratio of 2:1 (3 x 1.5 cm). Flap perfusion was assessed via laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography and compared to standard clinical assessment for predictive accuracy of flap necrosis. For estimating flap-failure, clinical prediction achieved a sensitivity of 79.3% and a specificity of 90.5%. When average flap perfusion was more than three standard deviations below the average flap perfusion for the negative control group at the time of the flap procedure (144.3+/-17.05 absolute perfusion units), laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography achieved a sensitivity of 81.1% and a specificity of 97.3%. When absolute perfusion units were seven standard deviations below the average flap perfusion for the negative control group, specificity of necrosis prediction was 100%. Quantitative absolute perfusion units can improve specificity for intraoperative prediction of viable tissue. Using this strategy, a positive predictive threshold of flap failure can be standardized for clinical use.

Hybrid neural intelligent system to predict business failure in small-to-medium-size enterprises.

Science.gov (United States)

Borrajo, M Lourdes; Baruque, Bruno; Corchado, Emilio; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M

2011-08-01

During the last years there has been a growing need of developing innovative tools that can help small to medium sized enterprises to predict business failure as well as financial crisis. In this study we present a novel hybrid intelligent system aimed at monitoring the modus operandi of the companies and predicting possible failures. This system is implemented by means of a neural-based multi-agent system that models the different actors of the companies as agents. The core of the multi-agent system is a type of agent that incorporates a case-based reasoning system and automates the business control process and failure prediction. The stages of the case-based reasoning system are implemented by means of web services: the retrieval stage uses an innovative weighted voting summarization of self-organizing maps ensembles-based method and the reuse stage is implemented by means of a radial basis function neural network. An initial prototype was developed and the results obtained related to small and medium enterprises in a real scenario are presented.

Study on real-time elevator brake failure predictive system

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jun; Fan, Jinwei

2013-10-01

This paper presented a real-time failure predictive system of the elevator brake. Through inspecting the running state of the coil by a high precision long range laser triangulation non-contact measurement sensor, the displacement curve of the coil is gathered without interfering the original system. By analyzing the displacement data using the diagnostic algorithm, the hidden danger of the brake system can be discovered in time and thus avoid the according accident.

Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

2012-03-01

Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Prediction of late failure after medical abortion from serial beta-hCG measurements and ultrasonography

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rørbye, C; Nørgaard, M; Nilas, Lisbeth

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND: Surgical treatment of failed medical abortion may be performed several weeks after initiation of the abortion. There are no recognized methods for early identification of these late failures. We assessed the prognostic values of beta-hCG and ultrasonography in predicting late failure ...

Coupled thermo-mechanical analysis of corium-loaded lower head of pressure vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, J.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

2016-01-01

A severe accident in the pressurised water reactor may lead to the relocation of core materials to the lower head of Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). The core debris at the bottom of RPV forms a melt pool of corium due to decay heat. The understanding of behaviour of pressure vessel, characterised by failure mode and time to failure, in this scenario is one of the important steps in predicting the accident progression. The most predominant failure mode is multi-axial creep deformation of the vessel with a non-uniform temperature field. Towards this, a numerical analysis methodology is developed for the prediction of pressure vessel deformation during the severe accidents. The methodology involves 2-D finite element modelling under multi-physics environment, which account the creep phenomena using Norton-Bailey creep law with a typical damage model of RPV material. The validation of the methodology is carried out using the results from OLHF experiment carried out in Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), USA, within the framework of an OECD. (author)

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

A New Material Constitutive Model for Predicting Cladding Failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rashid, Joe; Dunham, Robert [ANATECH Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Rashid, Mark [University of California Davis, Davis, CA (United States); Machiels, Albert [EPRI, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

2009-06-15

An important issue in fuel performance and safety evaluations is the characterization of the effects of hydrides on cladding mechanical response and failure behavior. The hydride structure formed during power operation transforms the cladding into a complex multi-material composite, with through-thickness concentration profile that causes cladding ductility to vary by more than an order of magnitude between ID and OD. However, current practice of mechanical property testing treats the cladding as a homogeneous material characterized by a single stress-strain curve, regardless of its hydride morphology. Consequently, as irradiation conditions and hydrides evolution change, new material property testing is required, which results in a state of continuous need for valid material property data. A recently developed constitutive model, treats the cladding as a multi-material composite in which the metal and the hydride platelets are treated as separate material phases with their own elastic-plastic and fracture properties and interacting at their interfaces with appropriate constraint conditions between them to ensure strain and stress compatibility. An essential feature of the model is a multi-phase damage formulation that models the complex interaction between the hydride phases and the metal matrix and the coupled effect of radial and circumferential hydrides on cladding stress-strain response. This gives the model the capability of directly predicting cladding failure progression during the loading event and, as such, provides a unique tool for constructing failure criteria analytically where none could be developed by conventional material testing. Implementation of the model in a fuel behavior code provides the capability to predict in-reactor operational failures due to PCI or missing pellet surfaces (MPS) without having to rely on failure criteria. Even, a stronger motivation for use of the model is in the transportation accidents analysis of spent fuel

Echocardiography and risk prediction in advanced heart failure: incremental value over clinical markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Agha, Syed A; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Shih, Jeffrey; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Giamouzis, Grigorios; Anarado, Perry; Mangalat, Deepa; Hussain, Imad; Book, Wendy; Laskar, Sonjoy; Smith, Andrew L; Martin, Randolph; Butler, Javed

2009-09-01

Incremental value of echocardiography over clinical parameters for outcome prediction in advanced heart failure (HF) is not well established. We evaluated 223 patients with advanced HF receiving optimal therapy (91.9% angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, 92.8% beta-blockers, 71.8% biventricular pacemaker, and/or defibrillator use). The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) was used as the reference clinical risk prediction scheme. The incremental value of echocardiographic parameters for event prediction (death or urgent heart transplantation) was measured by the improvement in fit and discrimination achieved by addition of standard echocardiographic parameters to the SHFM. After a median follow-up of 2.4 years, there were 38 (17.0%) events (35 deaths; 3 urgent transplants). The SHFM had likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) 32.0 and C statistic 0.756 for event prediction. Left ventricular end-systolic volume, stroke volume, and severe tricuspid regurgitation were independent echocardiographic predictors of events. The addition of these parameters to SHFM improved LR chi(2) to 72.0 and C statistic to 0.866 (P advanced HF.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Primary Failure Predicts Decreased Ustekinumab Efficacy in Psoriasis Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Sorensen, Eric P; Fanucci, Kristina A; Saraiya, Ami; Volf, Eva; Au, Shiu-chung; Argobi, Yahya; Mansfield, Ryan; Gottlieb, Alice B

2015-08-01

Additional studies are needed to examine the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis patients who have previously been exposed to tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). To examine the predictive effect of TNFi primary failure and the number of TNFi exposures on the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis treatment. This retrospective study examined 44 psoriasis patients treated at the Tufts Medical Center Department of Dermatology between January 2008 and July 2014. Patients were selected if they were treated with ustekinumab and had ≥ 1 previous TNFi exposure. The following subgroups were compared: patients with vs without a previous TNFi primary failure, and patients with one vs multiple previous TNFi exposures. The efficacy measure used was the previously validated Simple Measure for Assessing Psoriasis Activity (S-MAPA), which is calculated by the product of the body surface area and physician global assessment. The primary outcome was the percentage improvement S-MAPA from course baseline at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment. Secondary outcomes were the psoriasis clearance, primary failure, and secondary failure rates with ustekinumab treatment. Patients with a previous TNFi primary failure had a significantly lower percentage improvement in S-MAPA score at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients without TNFi primary failure (36.2% vs 61.1%, P=.027). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that this relationship was independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities. Patients with multiple TNFi exposures had a non-statistically significant lower percentage S-MAPA improvement at week 12 (40.5% vs 52.9%, P=.294) of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients with a single TNFi exposure. Among psoriasis patients previously exposed to TNFi, a history of a previous TNFi primary failure predicts a decreased response to ustekinumab independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities.

Failure mechanisms and closed reduction of a constrained tripolar acetabular liner.

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, William J; Mattern, Christopher J; Hur, John; Su, Edwin P; Pellicci, Paul M

2009-02-01

Unlike traditional bipolar constrained liners, the Osteonics Omnifit constrained acetabular insert is a tripolar device, consisting of an inner bipolar bearing articulating within an outer, true liner. Every reported failure of the Omnifit tripolar implant has been by failure at the shell-bone interface (Type I failure), failure at the shell-liner interface (Type II failure), or failure of the locking mechanism resulting in dislocation of the bipolar-liner interface (Type III failure). In this report we present two cases of failure of the Omnifit tripolar at the bipolar-femoral head interface. To our knowledge, these are the first reported cases of failure at the bipolar-femoral head interface (Type IV failure). In addition, we described the first successful closed reduction of a Type IV failure.

Investigation on multilayer failure mechanism of RPV with a high temperature gradient from core meltdown scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jianfeng, Mao, E-mail: jianfeng-mao@163.com [Institute of Process Equipment and Control Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310032 (China); Engineering Research Center of Process Equipment and Remanufacturing, Ministry of Education (China); Xiangqing, Li [Institute of Process Equipment and Control Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310032 (China); Shiyi, Bao, E-mail: bsy@zjut.edu.cn [Institute of Process Equipment and Control Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310032 (China); Engineering Research Center of Process Equipment and Remanufacturing, Ministry of Education (China); Lijia, Luo [Institute of Process Equipment and Control Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310032 (China); Zengliang, Gao [Institute of Process Equipment and Control Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310032 (China); Engineering Research Center of Process Equipment and Remanufacturing, Ministry of Education (China)

2016-12-15

Highlights: • The multilayer failure mechanism is investigated for RPV under CHF. • Failure time and location of RPV are predicted under various SA scenarios. • The structural behaviors are analyzed in depth for creep and plasticity. • The effect of internal pressure and temperature gradient is considered. • The structural integrity of RPV is secured within the required 72 creep hours. - Abstract: The Fukushima accident shows that in-vessel retention (IVR) of molten core debris has not been appropriately assessed, and a certain pressure (up to 8.0 MPa) still exists inside the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In the traditional concept of IVR, the pressure is supposed to successfully be released, and the temperature distributed among the wall thickness is assumed to be uniform. However, this concept is seriously challenged by reality of Fukushima accident with regard to the existence of both internal pressure and high temperature gradient. Therefore, in order to make the IVR mitigation strategy succeed, the numerical investigation of the lower head behavior and its failure has been performed for several internal pressures under high temperature gradient. According to some requirements in severe accident (SA) management of RPV, it should be ensured that the IVR mitigation takes effect in preventing the failure of the structure within a period of 72 h. Subsequently, the failure time and location have to be predicted under the critical heat flux (CHF) loading condition for lower head, since the CHF is limit thermal boundary before the melt-through of RPV. In illustrating the so called ‘multilayer failure mechanism’, the structural behaviors of RPV are analyzed in terms of the stress, creep strain, deformation, damage on selected paths.

Investigation on multilayer failure mechanism of RPV with a high temperature gradient from core meltdown scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jianfeng, Mao; Xiangqing, Li; Shiyi, Bao; Lijia, Luo; Zengliang, Gao

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The multilayer failure mechanism is investigated for RPV under CHF. • Failure time and location of RPV are predicted under various SA scenarios. • The structural behaviors are analyzed in depth for creep and plasticity. • The effect of internal pressure and temperature gradient is considered. • The structural integrity of RPV is secured within the required 72 creep hours. - Abstract: The Fukushima accident shows that in-vessel retention (IVR) of molten core debris has not been appropriately assessed, and a certain pressure (up to 8.0 MPa) still exists inside the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In the traditional concept of IVR, the pressure is supposed to successfully be released, and the temperature distributed among the wall thickness is assumed to be uniform. However, this concept is seriously challenged by reality of Fukushima accident with regard to the existence of both internal pressure and high temperature gradient. Therefore, in order to make the IVR mitigation strategy succeed, the numerical investigation of the lower head behavior and its failure has been performed for several internal pressures under high temperature gradient. According to some requirements in severe accident (SA) management of RPV, it should be ensured that the IVR mitigation takes effect in preventing the failure of the structure within a period of 72 h. Subsequently, the failure time and location have to be predicted under the critical heat flux (CHF) loading condition for lower head, since the CHF is limit thermal boundary before the melt-through of RPV. In illustrating the so called ‘multilayer failure mechanism’, the structural behaviors of RPV are analyzed in terms of the stress, creep strain, deformation, damage on selected paths.

Serum albumin level predicts initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment failure in Kawasaki disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Ho-Chang; Liang, Chi-Di; Wang, Chih-Lu; Yu, Hong-Ren; Hwang, Kao-Pin; Yang, Kuender D

2010-10-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis primarily affecting children who are initial IVIG treatment. This study was conducted to investigate the risk factors for initial IVIG treatment failure in KD. Children who met KD diagnosis criteria and were admitted for IVIG treatment were retrospectively enrolled for analysis. Patients were divided into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. Initial laboratory data before IVIG treatment were collected for analysis. A total of 131 patients were enrolled during the study period. At 48 h after completion of initial IVIG treatment, 20 patients (15.3%) had an elevated body temperature. Univariate analysis showed that patients who had initial findings of high neutrophil count, abnormal liver function, low serum albumin level (≤2.9 g/dL) and pericardial effusion were at risk for IVIG treatment failure. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression procedure showed that serum albumin level was considered the independent predicting factor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD (p = 0.006, OR = 40, 95% CI: 52.8-562). There was no significant correlation between age, gender, fever duration before IVIG treatment, haemoglobin level, total leucocyte and platelet counts, C-reactive protein level, or sterile pyuria and initial IVIG treatment failure. The specificity and sensitivity for prediction of IVIG treatment failure in this study were 96% and 34%, respectively. Pre-IVIG treatment serum albumin levels are a useful predictor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD. © 2010 The Author(s)/Journal Compilation © 2010 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (Pcontrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of existing models. Patients with elevated baseline PCWP and

Investigations of internal turbulent flows in a low-head tubular pump and its performance predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, X L; Chen, X S; Wang, F J; Yang, W; Wu, Y L

2012-01-01

Based on the RANS equations, standard k−ε turbulence model and SIMPLE algorithm, the internal turbulent flows in a low-head tubular pump were simulated by using the FLUENT software. Based on the predicted flow fields, the external performance curves including the head-discharge, efficiency-discharge and power-discharge curves were further obtained. The calculated results indicate that the internal flow pattern is smooth at the best efficiency point (BEP). When it works under off-design operating cases, the flow pattern inside the diffuser and the discharge passage is disorder, and at the same time, the hydraulic losses mainly come from the secondary flows. At large flow rates, the minimum static pressure near the inlet of the blade pressure surfaces due to the negative attack angle. At small flow rates, the minimum value happens near the inlet of the suction surfaces. At the BEP, the lowest static pressure appears in the region behind the suction surfaces inlet. The newly-designed model is validated by the comparisons between its predicted external performance and the experimental data of the JGM-3 model. This research provides some important references for the optimization of a low-head tubular pump.

Predicting device failure after percutaneous repair of functional mitral regurgitation in advanced heart failure: Implications for patient selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Stolfo, Davide; De Luca, Antonio; Morea, Gaetano; Merlo, Marco; Vitrella, Giancarlo; Caiffa, Thomas; Barbati, Giulia; Rakar, Serena; Korcova, Renata; Perkan, Andrea; Pinamonti, Bruno; Pappalardo, Aniello; Berardini, Alessandra; Biagini, Elena; Saia, Francesco; Grigioni, Francesco; Rapezzi, Claudio; Sinagra, Gianfranco

2018-04-15

Patients with heart failure (HF) and severe symptomatic functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) may benefit from MitraClip implantation. With increasing numbers of patients being treated the success of procedure becomes a key issue. We sought to investigate the pre-procedural predictors of device failure in patients with advanced HF treated with MitraClip. From April 2012 to November 2016, 76 patients with poor functional class (NYHA class III-IV) and severe left ventricular (LV) remodeling underwent MitraClip implantation at University Hospitals of Trieste and Bologna (Italy). Device failure was assessed according to MVARC criteria. Patients were subsequently followed to additionally assess the patient success after 12months. Mean age was 67±12years, the mean Log-EuroSCORE was 23.4±16.5%, and the mean LV end-diastolic volume index and ejection fraction (EF) were 112±33ml/m 2 and 30.6±8.9%, respectively. At short-term evaluation, device failure was observed in 22 (29%) patients. Univariate predictors of device failure were LVEF, LV and left atrial volumes and anteroposterior mitral annulus diameter. Annulus dimension (OR 1.153, 95% CI 1.002-1.327, p=0.043) and LV end-diastolic volume (OR 1.024, 95% CI 1.000-1.049, p=0.049) were the only variables independently associated with the risk of device failure at the multivariate model. Pre-procedural anteroposterior mitral annulus diameter accurately predicted the risk of device failure after MitraClip in the setting of advanced HF. Its assessment might aid the selection of the best candidates to percutaneous correction of FMR. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duffy, Stephen [Cleveland State Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States)

2013-09-09

This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffy, Stephen

2013-01-01

This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brear, J M; Middleton, C J; Aplin, P F [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

1999-12-31

This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brear, J.M.; Middleton, C.J.; Aplin, P.F. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

1998-12-31

This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

Simplified realistic human head model for simulating Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields).

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Cornelia; Bomzon, Ze'ev; Salvador, Ricardo; Basser, Peter J; Miranda, Pedro C

2016-08-01

Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) are alternating electric fields in the intermediate frequency range (100-300 kHz) of low-intensity (1-3 V/cm). TTFields are an anti-mitotic treatment against solid tumors, which are approved for Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) patients. These electric fields are induced non-invasively by transducer arrays placed directly on the patient's scalp. Cell culture experiments showed that treatment efficacy is dependent on the induced field intensity. In clinical practice, a software called NovoTalTM uses head measurements to estimate the optimal array placement to maximize the electric field delivery to the tumor. Computational studies predict an increase in the tumor's electric field strength when adapting transducer arrays to its location. Ideally, a personalized head model could be created for each patient, to calculate the electric field distribution for the specific situation. Thus, the optimal transducer layout could be inferred from field calculation rather than distance measurements. Nonetheless, creating realistic head models of patients is time-consuming and often needs user interaction, because automated image segmentation is prone to failure. This study presents a first approach to creating simplified head models consisting of convex hulls of the tissue layers. The model is able to account for anisotropic conductivity in the cortical tissues by using a tensor representation estimated from Diffusion Tensor Imaging. The induced electric field distribution is compared in the simplified and realistic head models. The average field intensities in the brain and tumor are generally slightly higher in the realistic head model, with a maximal ratio of 114% for a simplified model with reasonable layer thicknesses. Thus, the present pipeline is a fast and efficient means towards personalized head models with less complexity involved in characterizing tissue interfaces, while enabling accurate predictions of electric field distribution.

ON THE PERFORMANCE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEMETHODS FOR FAILURE PREDICTION: EVIDENCE FROMISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dr Hakan Er

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The prediction of business failure is a widely studied subject in financialliterature. Many earlier studies on this topic employed statistical methods such asmultiple discriminant analysis, logit and probit topredict corporate failure usingpast financial data (especially the ratio data. However, there has been a recentsurge in academic interest in the use of artificialintelligence (AI methods topredict financial distress. Numerous studies documented that AI methodsoutperform traditional methods. Majority of these studies used data fromestablished markets, the number of studies on emerging market data is ratherlimited and only a handful of studies employed Turkish data for analysis. Thisstudy aims to contribute to the literature by applying the artificial neural networksto predict deletions from Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE National 100 Index. Thesample is constructed using the quarterly fundamental data of the companies listedin this index the period between January 2008 and December 2012. We employedNeural Networks (NN, logit and probit to predict deletions from index onequarter before they have occurred. Results show that although the logit providesslightly better in-sample predictions, all of the methods fail to identify deletions inthe out-of-sample periods.

Potential Impact of a Free Online HIV Treatment Response Prediction System for Reducing Virological Failures and Drug Costs after Antiretroviral Therapy Failure in a Resource-Limited Setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew D. Revell

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Antiretroviral drug selection in resource-limited settings is often dictated by strict protocols as part of a public health strategy. The objective of this retrospective study was to examine if the HIV-TRePS online treatment prediction tool could help reduce treatment failure and drug costs in such settings. Methods. The HIV-TRePS computational models were used to predict the probability of response to therapy for 206 cases of treatment change following failure in India. The models were used to identify alternative locally available 3-drug regimens, which were predicted to be effective. The costs of these regimens were compared to those actually used in the clinic. Results. The models predicted the responses to treatment of the cases with an accuracy of 0.64. The models identified alternative drug regimens that were predicted to result in improved virological response and lower costs than those used in the clinic in 85% of the cases. The average annual cost saving was $364 USD per year (41%. Conclusions. Computational models that do not require a genotype can predict and potentially avoid treatment failure and may reduce therapy costs. The use of such a system to guide therapeutic decision-making could confer health economic benefits in resource-limited settings.

PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF BANK FAILURES WITH FINANCIAL RATIOS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKISH BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gamze Özel

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Banking risk management has become more important during the last 20 years in response to a worldwide increase in the number of bank failures. Turkey has experienced a series of economic and financial crisis since the declaration of Republic and banking system has the most affected sector from the results of these crises. This paper examines some bank failure prediction models using financial ratios. Survival, ordinary and conditional logistic regression models are employed in order to develop these prediction models. The empirical results indicate that the bank is more likely to go bankrupt if it is unprofitable, small, highly leveraged, and has liquidity problems and less financial flexibility to invest itself. 

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

2016-02-01

Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Definition of containment failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cybulskis, P.

1982-01-01

Core meltdown accidents of the types considered in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA's) have been predicted to lead to pressures that will challenge the integrity of containment structures. Review of a number of PRA's indicates considerable variation in the predicted probability of containment failure as a function of pressure. Since the results of PRA's are sensitive to the prediction of the occurrence and the timing of containment failure, better understanding of realistic containment capabilities and a more consistent approach to the definition of containment failure pressures are required. Additionally, since the size and location of the failure can also significantly influence the prediction of reactor accident risk, further understanding of likely failure modes is required. The thresholds and modes of containment failure may not be independent

Experimental investigation of creep behavior of reactor vessel lower head

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, T.Y.; Pilch, M.; Bentz, J.H.; Behbahani, A.

1998-03-01

The objective of the USNRC supported Lower Head Failure (LHF) Experiment Program at Sandia National Laboratories is to experimentally investigate and characterize the failure of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) lower head due to the thermal and pressure loads of a severe accident. The experimental program is complemented by a modeling program focused on the development of a constitutive formulation for use in standard finite element structure mechanics codes. The problem is of importance because: lower head failure defines the initial conditions of all ex-vessel events; the inability of state-of-the-art models to simulate the result of the TMI-II accident (Stickler, et al. 1993); and TMI-II results suggest the possibility of in-vessel cooling, and creep deformation may be a precursor to water ingression leading to in-vessel cooling

Failure analysis of top nozzle holddown spring screw for nuclear fuel assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, S. K.; Ryu, C. H.; Na, E. G.; Baek, T. H.; Jeon, K. L.

2003-01-01

A failure analysis of holddown spring screw was performed using fracture mechanics approach. The spring screw was designed such that it was capable of sustaining the loads imposed by the initial tensile preload and operational loads. In order to investigate the cause of failure, a stress analysis of the top nozzle spring assembly was done using finite element analysis and a life prediction of the screw was made using a fracture mechanics approach. The elastic-plastic finite element analysis showed that the local stresses at the critical regions of head-shank fillet and thread root significantly exceeded than the yield strength of the screw material, resulting in local plastic deformation. Primary water stress corrosion cracking life of the Inconel 600 screw was predicted by using integration of the Scott model and resulted in 1.42 years, which was fairly close to the actual service life of the holddown spring screw

Prediction of failure of highly irradiated Zircaloy clad tubes under reactivity initiated accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jernkvist, L.O.

2003-01-01

This paper deals with failure of irradiated Zircaloy tubes under the heat-up stage of a reactivity initiated accident (RIA). More precisely, by use of a model for plastic strain localization and necking failure, we theoretically analyse the effects of local surface defects on clad ductility and survivability under RIA. The results show that even very shallow surface defects, e.g. arising from a non-uniform or partially spilled oxide layer, have a strong limiting effect on clad ductility. Moreover, in presence of surface defects, the ability of the clad tube to expand radially without necking failure is found to be extremely sensitive to the stress biaxiality ratio σ zz /σ θθ , which is here assumed to be in the range from 0 to 1. The results of our analysis are compared with clad ductility data available in literature, and their consequences for clad failure prediction under RIA are discussed. In particular, the results raise serious concerns regarding the applicability of failure criteria, which are based on clad strain energy density. These criteria do not capture the observed sensitivity to stress biaxiality on clad failure propensity. (author)

Prediction of failure enthalpy and reliability of irradiated fuel rod under reactivity-initiated accidents by means of statistical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nam, Cheol; Choi, Byeong Kwon; Jeong, Yong Hwan; Jung, Youn Ho

2001-01-01

During the last decade, the failure behavior of high-burnup fuel rods under RIA has been an extensive concern since observations of fuel rod failures at low enthalpy. Of great importance is placed on failure prediction of fuel rod in the point of licensing criteria and safety in extending burnup achievement. To address the issue, a statistics-based methodology is introduced to predict failure probability of irradiated fuel rods. Based on RIA simulation results in literature, a failure enthalpy correlation for irradiated fuel rod is constructed as a function of oxide thickness, fuel burnup, and pulse width. From the failure enthalpy correlation, a single damage parameter, equivalent enthalpy, is defined to reflect the effects of the three primary factors as well as peak fuel enthalpy. Moreover, the failure distribution function with equivalent enthalpy is derived, applying a two-parameter Weibull statistical model. Using these equations, the sensitivity analysis is carried out to estimate the effects of burnup, corrosion, peak fuel enthalpy, pulse width and cladding materials used

Reactor pressure vessel failure probability following through-wall cracks due to pressurized thermal shock events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonen, F.A.; Garnich, M.R.; Simonen, E.P.; Bian, S.H.; Nomura, K.K.; Anderson, W.E.; Pedersen, L.T.

1986-04-01

A fracture mechanics model was developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to predict the behavior of a reactor pressure vessel following a through-wall crack that occurs during a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) event. This study, which contributed to a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) program to study PTS risk, was coordinated with the Integrated Pressurized Thermal Shock (IPTS) Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The PNL fracture mechanics model uses the critical transients and probabilities of through-wall cracks from the IPTS Program. The PNL model predicts the arrest, reinitiation, and direction of crack growth for a postulated through-wall crack and thereby predicts the mode of vessel failure. A Monte-Carlo type of computer code was written to predict the probabilities of the alternative failure modes. This code treats the fracture mechanics properties of the various welds and plates of a vessel as random variables. Plant-specific calculations were performed for the Oconee-1, Calvert Cliffs-1, and H.B. Robinson-2 reactor pressure vessels for the conditions of postulated transients. The model predicted that 50% or more of the through-wall axial cracks will turn to follow a circumferential weld. The predicted failure mode is a complete circumferential fracture of the vessel, which results in a potential vertically directed missile consisting of the upper head assembly. Missile arrest calculations for the three nuclear plants predict that such vertical missiles, as well as all potential horizontally directed fragmentation type missiles, will be confined to the vessel enclosre cavity. The PNL failure mode model is recommended for use in future evaluations of other plants, to determine the failure modes that are most probable for postulated PTS events

Heat transfer between relocated materials and the RPV lower head

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rempe, J.L.; Knudson, D.L.; Kohriyama, T.

2001-01-01

Questions about the coolability of a continuous mass of relocated corium were raised during the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) Vessel Investigation Project (VIP) Post-accident examinations indicate that nearly half of the material that relocated to the vessel lower head during the TMI-2 accident formed a cohesive or ''continuous'' layer. TMI-2 VIP results and other evidence suggest that conduction through this continuous layer of solidified corium materials was assisted by other cooling mechanisms. Because increased knowledge about in-vessel coolability of corium materials may assist reactor designers in demonstrating that their concepts are passively safe, there is international interest in this topic. However, data are needed to identify what cooling mechanism(s) occurred and to develop a validated model for predicting this cooling. Corium cooling models significantly impact predictions for subsequent accident progression, such as the estimated time and mode of vessel failure. Hence, improved cooling models will provide a much needed, missing component of severe accident analyses. This paper provides a critical review of research investigating the coolability of corium relocating to a water-filled lower head. Where possible, existing models and data for predicting cooling are quantitatively compared; and governing relationships are identified. Key phenomena that should be incorporated into models for predicting this heat transfer are discussed, and deficiencies in current models and available data for predicting cooling are noted. Recommendations for improving these models and for obtaining data to validate these models are also provided. (author)

Predictive factors for pharyngocutaneous fistulization after total laryngectomy: a Dutch Head and Neck Society audit.

Science.gov (United States)

Lansaat, Liset; van der Noort, Vincent; Bernard, Simone E; Eerenstein, Simone E J; Plaat, Boudewijn E C; Langeveld, Ton A P M; Lacko, Martin; Hilgers, Frans J M; de Bree, Remco; Takes, Robert P; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

2018-03-01

Incidences of pharyngocutaneous fistulization (PCF) after total laryngectomy (TL) reported in the literature vary widely, ranging from 2.6 to 65.5%. Comparison between different centers might identify risk factors, but also might enable improvements in quality of care. To enable this on a national level, an audit in the 8 principle Dutch Head and Neck Centers (DHNC) was initiated. A retrospective chart review of all 324 patients undergoing laryngectomy in a 2-year (2012 and 2013) period was performed. Overall PCF%, PCF% per center and factors predictive for PCF were identified. Furthermore, a prognostic model predicting the PCF% per center was developed. To provide additional data, a survey among the head and neck surgeons of the participating centers was carried out. Overall PCF% was 25.9. The multivariable prediction model revealed that previous treatment with (chemo)radiotherapy in combination with a long interval between primary treatment and TL, previous tracheotomy, near total pharyngectomy, neck dissection, and BMI model. PCF performance rate (difference between the PCF% and the predicted PCF%) per DHNC, though, shows that not all differences are explained by factors established in the prediction model. However, these factors explain enough of the differences that, compensating for these factors, hospital is no longer independently predictive for PCF. This nationwide audit has provided valid comparative PCF data confirming the known risk factors from the literature which are important for counseling on PCF risks. Data show that variations in PCF% in the DHNCs (in part) are explainable by the variations in these predictive factors. Since elective neck dissection is a major risk factor for PCF, it only should be performed on well funded indication.

A Systematic Review on Prognostic Indicators of Acute Liver Failure and Their Predictive Value for Poor Outcome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wlodzimirow, Kama A.; Eslami, Saeid; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Nieuwoudt, Martin; Chamuleau, Robert A. F. M.

2014-01-01

This review provides a large amount of information, including the extensive list of worldwide used indicators to predict outcome in patients with acute liver failure. There is large heterogeneity in prognostic indicators of acute liver failure, methods of measurement, complexity of calculation and

Statistics-Based Prediction Analysis for Head and Neck Cancer Tumor Deformation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryam Azimi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the current radiation therapy planning systems, which are based on pre-treatment Computer Tomography (CT images, assume that the tumor geometry does not change during the course of treatment. However, tumor geometry is shown to be changing over time. We propose a methodology to monitor and predict daily size changes of head and neck cancer tumors during the entire radiation therapy period. Using collected patients' CT scan data, MATLAB routines are developed to quantify the progressive geometric changes occurring in patients during radiation therapy. Regression analysis is implemented to develop predictive models for tumor size changes through entire period. The generated models are validated using leave-one-out cross validation. The proposed method will increase the accuracy of therapy and improve patient's safety and quality of life by reducing the number of harmful unnecessary CT scans.

Prediction of the time-dependent failure rate for normally operating components taking into account the operational history

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vrbanic, I.; Simic, Z.; Sljivac, D.

2008-01-01

The prediction of the time-dependent failure rate has been studied, taking into account the operational history of a component used in applications such as system modeling in a probabilistic safety analysis in order to evaluate the impact of equipment aging and maintenance strategies on the risk measures considered. We have selected a time-dependent model for the failure rate which is based on the Weibull distribution and the principles of proportional age reduction by equipment overhauls. Estimation of the parameters that determine the failure rate is considered, including the definition of the operational history model and likelihood function for the Bayesian analysis of parameters for normally operating repairable components. The operational history is provided as a time axis with defined times of overhauls and failures. An example for demonstration is described with prediction of the future behavior for seven different operational histories. (orig.)

Modelling of RPV lower head under core melt severe accident condition using OpenFOAM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madokoro, Hiroshi; Kretzschmar, Frank; Miassoedov, Alexei

2017-01-01

Although six years have been passed since the tragic severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi, still large uncertainties exist in modeling of core degradation and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure. It is extremely important to obtain a better understanding of complex phenomena in the lower head in order to improve accident management measures. The possible failure mode of reactor pressure vessel and its failure time are especially a matter of importance. Thermal behavior of the molten pool can be simulated by the Phase-change Effective Convectivity Model (PECM), which is a distributed-parameter model developed in the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden. The model calculates convective currents not using a pure CFD approach but based on so called “characteristic velocities” that are determined by empirical correlations depending on the geometry and physical properties of the molten pool. At the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the PECM has been implemented in the open-source CFD software OpenFOAM in order to receive detailed predictions of a core melt behavior in the RPV lower head under severe accident conditions. An advantage of using OpenFOAM is that it is very flexible to add and modify models and physical properties. In the current work, the solver is extended to couple PECM with a structure analysis model of the vessel wall. The model considers thermal expansion, plasticity, creep and damage. The model and physical properties are based on those implemented in ANSYS. Although the previous implementation had restriction that the amount of and geometry of the melt cannot be changed, our coupled model allows flexibility of the melt amount and geometry. The extended solver was used to simulate the LIVE-L1 and -L7V experiments and has demonstrated good prediction of the temperature distribution in the molten pool and heat flux distribution through the vessel wall. Regarding the vessel failure the model was applied to one of the FOREVER tests

Failure Prediction for Autonomous Driving

OpenAIRE

Hecker, Simon; Dai, Dengxin; Van Gool, Luc

2018-01-01

The primary focus of autonomous driving research is to improve driving accuracy. While great progress has been made, state-of-the-art algorithms still fail at times. Such failures may have catastrophic consequences. It therefore is important that automated cars foresee problems ahead as early as possible. This is also of paramount importance if the driver will be asked to take over. We conjecture that failures do not occur randomly. For instance, driving models may fail more likely at places ...

Probabilistic Modeling of Updating Epistemic Uncertainty In Pile Capacity Prediction With a Single Failure Test Result

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indra Djati Sidi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The model error N has been introduced to denote the discrepancy between measured and predicted capacity of pile foundation. This model error is recognized as epistemic uncertainty in pile capacity prediction. The statistics of N have been evaluated based on data gathered from various sites and may be considered only as a eneral-error trend in capacity prediction, providing crude estimates of the model error in the absence of more specific data from the site. The results of even a single load test to failure, should provide direct evidence of the pile capacity at a given site. Bayes theorem has been used as a rational basis for combining new data with previous data to revise assessment of uncertainty and reliability. This study is devoted to the development of procedures for updating model error (N, and subsequently the predicted pile capacity with a results of single failure test.

Long-term outcome and patterns of failure in patients with advanced head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauswald, Henrik; Simon, Christian; Hecht, Simone; Debus, Juergen; Lindel, Katja

2011-01-01

To access the long-time outcome and patterns of failure in patients with advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Between 1992 and 2005 127 patients (median age 55 years, UICC stage III n = 6, stage IV n = 121) with primarily inoperable, advanced HNSCC were treated with definite platinum-based radiochemotherapy (median dose 66.4 Gy). Analysed end-points were overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), loco-regional progression-free survival (LPFS), development of distant metastases (DM), prognostic factors and causes of death. The mean follow-up time was 34 months (range, 3-156 months), the 3-, 5- and 10-year OS rates were 39%, 28% and 14%, respectively. The median OS was 23 months. Forty-seven patients achieved a complete remission and 78 patients a partial remission. The median LPFS was 17 months, the 3-, 5- and 10-year LPFS rates were 41%, 33% and 30%, respectively. The LPFS was dependent on the nodal stage (p = 0.029). The median DFS was 11 months (range, 2-156 months), the 3-, 5- and 10-year DFS rates were 30%, 24% and 22%, respectively. Prognostic factors in univariate analyses were alcohol abuse (n = 102, p = 0.015), complete remission (n = 47, p < 0.001), local recurrence (n = 71, p < 0.001), development of DM (n = 45, p < 0.001; median OS 16 months) and borderline significance in nodal stage N2 versus N3 (p = 0.06). Median OS was 26 months with lung metastases (n = 17). Nodal stage was a predictive factor for the development of DM (p = 0.025). Cause of death was most commonly tumor progression. In stage IV HNSCC long-term survival is rare and DM is a significant predictor for mortality. If patients developed DM, lung metastases had the most favourable prognosis, so intensified palliative treatment might be justified in DM limited to the lungs

Accuracy of circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, T; Huang, W; Szatmary, P; Abrams, S T; Alhamdi, Y; Lin, Z; Greenhalf, W; Wang, G; Sutton, R; Toh, C H

2017-08-01

Early prediction of acute pancreatitis severity remains a challenge. Circulating levels of histones are raised early in mouse models and correlate with disease severity. It was hypothesized that circulating histones predict persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis. Consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis fulfilling inclusion criteria admitted to Royal Liverpool University Hospital were enrolled prospectively between June 2010 and March 2014. Blood samples were obtained within 48 h of abdominal pain onset and relevant clinical data during the hospital stay were collected. Healthy volunteers were enrolled as controls. The primary endpoint was occurrence of persistent organ failure. The predictive values of circulating histones, clinical scores and other biomarkers were determined. Among 236 patients with acute pancreatitis, there were 156 (66·1 per cent), 57 (24·2 per cent) and 23 (9·7 per cent) with mild, moderate and severe disease respectively, according to the revised Atlanta classification. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality was 0·92 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·99) and 0·96 (0·92 to 1·00) respectively; histones were at least as accurate as clinical scores or biochemical markers. For infected pancreatic necrosis and/or sepsis, the AUC was 0·78 (0·62 to 0·94). Histones did not predict or correlate with local pancreatic complications, but correlated negatively with leucocyte cell viability (r = -0·511, P = 0·001). Quantitative assessment of circulating histones in plasma within 48 h of abdominal pain onset can predict persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Early death of immune cells may contribute to raised circulating histone levels in acute pancreatitis. © 2017 The Authors. BJS published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJS

The predictive value of single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography for sentinel lymph node localization in head and neck cutaneous malignancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Remenschneider, Aaron K; Dilger, Amanda E; Wang, Yingbing; Palmer, Edwin L; Scott, James A; Emerick, Kevin S

2015-04-01

Preoperative localization of sentinel lymph nodes in head and neck cutaneous malignancies can be aided by single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT); however, its true predictive value for identifying lymph nodes intraoperatively remains unquantified. This study aims to understand the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of SPECT/CT in sentinel lymph node biopsy for cutaneous malignancies of the head and neck. Blinded retrospective imaging review with comparison to intraoperative gamma probe confirmed sentinel lymph nodes. A consecutive series of patients with a head and neck cutaneous malignancy underwent preoperative SPECT/CT followed by sentinel lymph node biopsy with a gamma probe. Two nuclear medicine physicians, blinded to clinical data, independently reviewed each SPECT/CT. Activity within radiographically defined nodal basins was recorded and compared to intraoperative gamma probe findings. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values were calculated with subgroup stratification by primary tumor site. Ninety-two imaging reads were performed on 47 patients with cutaneous malignancy who underwent SPECT/CT followed by sentinel lymph node biopsy. Overall sensitivity was 73%, specificity 92%, positive predictive value 54%, and negative predictive value 96%. The predictive ability of SPECT/CT to identify the basin or an adjacent basin containing the single hottest node was 92%. SPECT/CT overestimated uptake by an average of one nodal basin. In the head and neck, SPECT/CT has higher reliability for primary lesions of the eyelid, scalp, and cheek. SPECT/CT has high sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, but may overestimate relevant nodal basins in sentinel lymph node biopsy. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Tumor microenvironment in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas: predictive value and clinical relevance of hypoxic markers. A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoogsteen, Ilse J; Marres, Henri A M; Bussink, Johan; van der Kogel, Albert J; Kaanders, Johannes H A M

2007-06-01

Hypoxia and tumor cell proliferation are important factors determining the treatment response of squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck. Successful approaches have been developed to counteract these resistance mechanisms although usually at the cost of increased short- and long-term side effects. To provide the best attainable quality of life for individual patients and the head and neck cancer patient population as a whole, it is of increasing importance that tools be developed that allow a better selection of patients for these intensified treatments. A literature review was performed with special focus on the predictive value and clinical relevance of endogenous hypoxia-related markers. New methods for qualitative and quantitative assessment of functional microenvironmental parameters such as hypoxia, proliferation, and vasculature have identified several candidate markers for future use in predictive assays. Hypoxia-related markers include hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1alpha, carbonic anhydrase IX, glucose transporters, erythropoietin receptor, osteopontin, and others. Although several of these markers and combinations of markers are associated with treatment outcome, their clinical value as predictive factors remains to be established. A number of markers and marker profiles have emerged that may have potential as a predictive assay. Validation of these candidate assays requires testing in prospective trials comparing standard treatment against experimental treatments targeting the related microregional constituent. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck, 2007.

A Systematic Review of the Usefulness of Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein for Predicting Acute Intracranial Lesions following Head Trauma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teemu M. Luoto

2017-12-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThe extensive use of computed tomography (CT after acute head injury is costly and carries potential iatrogenic risk. This systematic review examined the usefulness of blood-based glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP for predicting acute trauma-related CT-positive intracranial lesions following head trauma. The main objective was to summarize the current evidence on blood-based GFAP as a potential screening test for acute CT-positive intracranial lesions following head trauma.MethodsWe screened MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychInfo, CINAHL, Web of Science, the Cochrane Database, Scopus, Clinical Trials, OpenGrey, ResearchGate, and the reference lists of eligible publications for original contributions published between January 1980 and January 2017. Eligibility criteria included: (i population: human head and brain injuries of all severities and ages; (ii intervention: blood-based GFAP measurement ≤24 h post-injury; and (iii outcome: acute traumatic lesion on non-contrast head CT ≤24 h post-injury. Three authors completed the publication screening, data extraction, and quality assessment of eligible articles.ResultsThe initial search identified 4,706 articles, with 51 eligible for subsequent full-text assessment. Twenty-seven articles were ultimately included. Twenty-four (89% studies reported a positive association between GFAP level and acute trauma-related intracranial lesions on head CT. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for GFAP prediction of intracranial pathology ranged from 0.74 to 0.98 indicating good to excellent discrimination. GFAP seemed to discriminate mass lesions and diffuse injury, with mass lesions having significantly higher GFAP levels. There was considerable variability between the measured GFAP averages between studies and assays. No well-designed diagnostic studies with specific GFAP cutoff values predictive of acute traumatic intracranial lesions have been published

Value of Serial Heart Rate Variability Measurement for Prediction of Appropriate ICD Discharge in Patients with Heart Failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

ten Sande, Judith N.; Damman, Peter; Tijssen, Jan G. P.; de Groot, Joris R.; Knops, Reinoud E.; Wilde, Arthur A. M.; van Dessel, Pascal F. H. M.

2014-01-01

HRV and Appropriate ICD Shock in Heart Failure Introduction Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure. Our objective was to examine whether decreased HRV predicts appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shocks. Methods

TNF Receptor 1/2 Predict Heart Failure Risk in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Ping, Zhang; Aiqun, Ma; Jiwu, Li; Liang, Shao

2017-04-06

Inflammation plays an important role in heart failure and diabetes mellitus. Traditional serum markers have limited predictive value in heart failure and diabetes. TNFR1 and TNFR2 (TNFR1/2) have been proven to be strongly associated with heart failure and diabetes complications. This study aimed to assess the association of sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 levels and incidental HF risk in diabetes patients.We detected the mRNA, protein, and serum expression of TNFR1/2, their downstream signaling pathway protein NF-kB, and JNK expression and some traditional serum inflammatory markers in a heart failure group without diabetes mellitus or abnormal glucose tolerance (n = 84), a diabetes mellitus group without heart failure (n = 86), and a heart failure with diabetes mellitus group (n = 86).TNFR1/2 were significantly higher in patients with heart failure and diabetes mellitus based on mRNA expression to protein expression and serum expression. However, there were no differences in mRNA, protein, and serum levels of TNFR1/2 between the HF group and DM group. Furthermore, there were no differences between the groups in some traditional serum inflammatory markers.This study demonstrated higher expressions of TNFR, NF-kB, and JNK in patients with heart failure and diabetes mellitus. Compared with traditional serum markers, TNFR1 and TNFR2 are associated with heart failure risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

GRACE score predicts heart failure admission following acute coronary syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

McAllister, David A; Halbesma, Nynke; Carruthers, Kathryn; Denvir, Martin; Fox, Keith A

2015-04-01

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a common and preventable complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Nevertheless, ACS risk scores have not been shown to predict CHF risk. We investigated whether the at-discharge Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score predicts heart failure admission following ACS. Five-year mortality and hospitalization data were obtained for patients admitted with ACS from June 1999 to September 2009 to a single centre of the GRACE registry. CHF was defined as any admission assigned WHO International Classification of Diseases 10 diagnostic code I50. The hazard ratio (HR) for CHF according to GRACE score was estimated in Cox models adjusting for age, gender and the presence of CHF on index admission. Among 1,956 patients, CHF was recorded on index admission in 141 patients (7%), and 243 (12%) were admitted with CHF over 3.8 median years of follow-up. Compared to the lowest quintile, patients in the highest GRACE score quintile had more CHF admissions (116 vs 17) and a shorter time to first admission (1.2 vs 2.0 years, HR 9.87, 95% CI 5.93-16.43). Per standard deviation increment in GRACE score, the instantaneous risk was more than two-fold higher (HR 2.28; 95% CI 2.02-2.57), including after adjustment for CHF on index admission, age and gender (HR 2.49; 95% CI 2.06-3.02). The C-statistic for CHF admission at 1-year was 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79). The GRACE score predicts CHF admission, and may therefore be used to target ACS patients at high risk of CHF with clinical monitoring and therapies. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Dose-volumetric parameters for predicting hypothyroidism after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Mi Young; Yu, Tosol; Wu, Hong-Gyun

2014-01-01

To investigate predictors affecting the development of hypothyroidism after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer, focusing on radiation dose-volumetric parameters, and to determine the appropriate radiation dose-volumetric threshold of radiation-induced hypothyroidism. A total of 114 patients with head and neck cancer whose radiotherapy fields included the thyroid gland were analysed. The purpose of the radiotherapy was either definitive (n=81) or post-operative (n=33). Thyroid function was monitored before starting radiotherapy and after completion of radiotherapy at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years. A diagnosis of hypothyroidism was based on a thyroid stimulating hormone value greater than the maximum value of laboratory range, regardless of symptoms. In all patients, dose volumetric parameters were analysed. Median follow-up duration was 25 months (range; 6-38). Forty-six percent of the patients were diagnosed as hypothyroidism after a median time of 8 months (range; 1-24). There were no significant differences in the distribution of age, gender, surgery, radiotherapy technique and chemotherapy between the euthyroid group and the hypothyroid group. In univariate analysis, the mean dose and V35-V50 results were significantly associated with hypothyroidism. The V45 is the only variable that independently contributes to the prediction of hypothyroidism in multivariate analysis and V45 of 50% was a threshold value. If V45 was <50%, the cumulative incidence of hypothyroidism at 1 year was 22.8%, whereas the incidence was 56.1% if V45 was ≥50%. (P=0.034). The V45 may predict risk of developing hypothyroidism after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer, and a V45 of 50% can be a useful dose-volumetric threshold of radiation-induced hypothyroidism. (author)

Predicting Factors of INSURE Failure in Low Birth Weight Neonates with RDS; A Logistic Regression Model

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Bita Najafian

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background:Respiratory Distress syndrome is the most common respiratory disease in premature neonate and the most important cause of death among them. We aimed to investigate factors to predict successful or failure of INSURE method as a therapeutic method of RDS.Methods:In a cohort study,45 neonates with diagnosed RDS and birth weight lower than 1500g were included and they underwent INSURE followed by NCPAP(Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure. The patients were divided into failure or successful groups and factors which can predict success of INSURE were investigated by logistic regression in SPSS 16th version.Results:29 and16 neonates were observed in successful and failure groups, respectively. Birth weight was the only variable with significant difference between two groups (P=0.002. Finally logistic regression test showed that birth weight is only predicting factor for success (P: 0.001, EXP[β]: 0.009, CI [95%]: 1.003-0.014 and mortality (P: 0.029, EXP[β]: 0.993, CI [95%]: 0.987-0.999 of neonates treated with INSURE method.Conclusion:Predicting factors which affect on success rate of INSURE can be useful for treating and reducing charge of neonate with RDS and the birth weight is one of the effective factor on INSURE Success in this study.

Predicting Factors of INSURE Failure in Low Birth Weight Neonates with RDS; A Logistic Regression Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bita Najafian

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background:Respiratory Distress syndrome is the most common respiratory disease in premature neonate and the most important cause of death among them. We aimed to investigate factors to predict successful or failure of INSURE method as a therapeutic method of RDS. Methods:In a cohort study,45 neonates with diagnosed RDS and birth weight lower than 1500g were included and they underwent INSURE followed by NCPAP(Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure. The patients were divided into failure or successful groups and factors which can predict success of INSURE were investigated by logistic regression in SPSS 16th version. Results:29 and16 neonates were observed in successful and failure groups, respectively. Birth weight was the only variable with significant difference between two groups (P=0.002. Finally logistic regression test showed that birth weight is only predicting factor for success (P: 0.001, EXP[β]: 0.009, CI [95%]: 1.003-0.014 and mortality (P: 0.029, EXP[β]: 0.993, CI [95%]: 0.987-0.999 of neonates treated with INSURE method. Conclusion:Predicting factors which affect on success rate of INSURE can be useful for treating and reducing charge of neonate with RDS and the birth weight is one of the effective factor on INSURE Success in this study.

Development and validation of a dynamic outcome prediction model for paracetamol-induced acute liver failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bernal, William; Wang, Yanzhong; Maggs, James

2016-01-01

: The models developed here show very good discrimination and calibration, confirmed in independent datasets, and suggest that many patients undergoing transplantation based on existing criteria might have survived with medical management alone. The role and indications for emergency liver transplantation......BACKGROUND: Early, accurate prediction of survival is central to management of patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure to identify those needing emergency liver transplantation. Current prognostic tools are confounded by recent improvements in outcome independent of emergency liver...... transplantation, and constrained by static binary outcome prediction. We aimed to develop a simple prognostic tool to reflect current outcomes and generate a dynamic updated estimation of risk of death. METHODS: Patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure managed at intensive care units in the UK...

Local Control After Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head-and-Neck Rhabdomyosarcoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtis, Amarinthia E.; Okcu, M. Fatih; Chintagumpala, Murali; Teh, Bin S.; Paulino, Arnold C.

2009-01-01

Purpose: To examine the patterns of failure in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head-and-neck rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS). Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2005, 19 patients with a diagnosis of head-and-neck RMS received IMRT at The Methodist Hospital. There were 11 male and 8 female patients, with a median age of 6 years at time of irradiation. Tumor location was parameningeal in 7, orbital in 6, and other head-and-neck RMS in 6. Chemotherapy was given to all patients, with vincristine, actinomycin D, and cyclophosphamide being the most common regimen (n = 18). The median prescribed dose was 5040 cGy. The clinical target volume included the gross tumor volume with a 1.5-cm margin. The median duration of follow-up for surviving patients was 56 months. Results: The 4-year overall survival and local control rates were 76% and 92.9%, respectively. One patient developed a local failure in the high-dose region of the radiation field; there were no marginal failures. Distant metastasis was seen in 4 patients. Overall survival was 42.9% for parameningeal sites and 100% for other sites (p < 0.01). Late toxicities were seen in 7 patients. Two secondary malignancies occurred in 1 child with embryonal RMS of the face and a p53 mutation. Conclusions: Local control was excellent in patients receiving IMRT for head-and-neck RMS. Patterns of local failure reveal no marginal failures in this group of patients

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Joseph T.; Kable, Joseph W.

2013-01-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision-maker’s prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay’s predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people’s explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known “marshmallow test”). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one’s environment. PMID:23458085

Prediction of Composite Pressure Vessel Failure Location using Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Kreger, Steven T.; Taylor, F. Tad; Ortyl, Nicholas E.; Grant, Joseph

2006-01-01

Ten composite pressure vessels were instrumented with fiber Bragg grating sensors in order to assess the strain levels of the vessel under various loading conditions. This paper and presentation will discuss the testing methodology, the test results, compare the testing results to the analytical model, and present a possible methodology for predicting the failure location and strain level of composite pressure vessels.

Heat transfer between relocated materials and the RPV lower head

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rempe, J.L.; Knudson, D.L. [Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kohriyama, T. [INSS, Fukui (Japan)

2001-07-01

Questions about the coolability of a continuous mass of relocated corium were raised during the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) Vessel Investigation Project (VIP) Post-accident examinations indicate that nearly half of the material that relocated to the vessel lower head during the TMI-2 accident formed a cohesive or ''continuous'' layer. TMI-2 VIP results and other evidence suggest that conduction through this continuous layer of solidified corium materials was assisted by other cooling mechanisms. Because increased knowledge about in-vessel coolability of corium materials may assist reactor designers in demonstrating that their concepts are passively safe, there is international interest in this topic. However, data are needed to identify what cooling mechanism(s) occurred and to develop a validated model for predicting this cooling. Corium cooling models significantly impact predictions for subsequent accident progression, such as the estimated time and mode of vessel failure. Hence, improved cooling models will provide a much needed, missing component of severe accident analyses. This paper provides a critical review of research investigating the coolability of corium relocating to a water-filled lower head. Where possible, existing models and data for predicting cooling are quantitatively compared; and governing relationships are identified. Key phenomena that should be incorporated into models for predicting this heat transfer are discussed, and deficiencies in current models and available data for predicting cooling are noted. Recommendations for improving these models and for obtaining data to validate these models are also provided. (author)

Health Visitor's Role in Prediction of Early Childhood Injuries and Failure to Thrive.

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, Janet G.; And Others

1978-01-01

Discusses the role of the health visitor in the prediction of early childhood injuries, abuse, and failure to thrive--based on a three-year study of the relationship between early maternal attitudes and subsequent child health. Journal availability: Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall, Oxford, OX3 OBW England. (DLS)

Factors predicting the outcome of acute renal failure in pregnancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khana, N.; Akhtar, F.

2010-01-01

To determine the factors predicting renal outcome in patients developing acute renal failure in pregnancy. Study Design: Descriptive cohort study. Place and Duration of Study: Study was conducted at Nephrology Unit of Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation, Karachi, from October 2006 to March 2007. Methodology: Patients with acute renal failure due to complications of pregnancy, with normal size of both the kidneys on ultrasound were enrolled, and followed for a period of 60 days or until recovery of renal function. Patient's age and parity, presence of antenatal care, type of complication of pregnancy, foetal outcome and duration of oliguria were compared between patients who remained dialysis dependent and those who recovered renal function. Chi-square/Fisher's exact test and student's t-test, were used for determining the association of categorical and continuous variables with dialysis dependency. Results: The mean age was 29 +- 6 years. Most patients came from rural areas of interior Sindh. Sixty eight percent did not have antenatal checkups. Antepartum haemorrhage (p=0.002) and prolonged duration of oliguria (35 +- 15.7 days, p= < 0.001) were associated with dialysis dependency, which was observed in 50% of the study group. Conclusion: Ante-partum haemorrhage and prolonged oliguria were strong predictors of irreversible renal failure. This highlights the need for early recognition and referral, and the importance of trained birth attendants and antenatal care. (author)

Neutron-induced electronic failures around a high-energy linear accelerator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kry, Stephen F.; Johnson, Jennifer L.; White, R. Allen; Howell, Rebecca M.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Gillin, Michael T.

2011-01-01

Purpose: After a new in-vault CT-on-rails system repeatedly malfunctioned following use of a high-energy radiotherapy beam, we investigated the presence and impact of neutron radiation on this electronic system, as well as neutron shielding options. Methods: We first determined the CT scanner's failure rate as a function of the number of 18 MV monitor units (MUs) delivered. We then re-examined the failure rate with both 2.7-cm-thick and 7.6-cm-thick borated polyethylene (BPE) covering the linac head for neutron shielding. To further examine shielding options, as well as to explore which neutrons were relevant to the scanner failure, Monte Carlo simulations were used to calculate the neutron fluence and spectrum in the bore of the CT scanner. Simulations included BPE covering the CT scanner itself as well as covering the linac head. Results: We found that the CT scanner had a 57% chance of failure after the delivery of 200 MUs. While the addition of neutron shielding to the accelerator head reduced this risk of failure, the benefit was minimal and even 7.6 cm of BPE was still associated with a 29% chance of failure after the delivery of 200 MU. This shielding benefit was achieved regardless of whether the linac head or CT scanner was shielded. Additionally, it was determined that fast neutrons were primarily responsible for the electronic failures. Conclusions: As illustrated by the CT-on-rails system in the current study, physicists should be aware that electronic systems may be highly sensitive to neutron radiation. Medical physicists should therefore monitor electronic systems that have not been evaluated for potential neutron sensitivity. This is particularly relevant as electronics are increasingly common in the therapy vault and newer electronic systems may exhibit increased sensitivity.

Hope of Success and Fear of Failure Predicting Academic Procrastination Students Who Working on a Thesis

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Sari Zakiah Akmal

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Students, who are working on the thesis, have some difficulties caused by internal and external factors. Those problems can disrupt the completion of their thesis, such as the tendency to do academic procrastination. Increasing achievement motivation can reduce academic procrastination. This study aims to look at the role of achievement motivation (hope of success and fear of failure in predicting academic procrastination. The study used a quantitative approach by distributing academic procrastination and achievement motivation questionnaires. The study involved 182 students who were working on a thesis as samples, which were obtained by using accidental sampling technique. Data were analyzed using multiple regressions. It showed that the hope of success and fear of failure have a significant role in predicting academic procrastination (R2 = 13.8%, F = 14,356, p <0.05. The hope of success can decrease academic procrastination, while fear of failure can improve it. Thus, interventions to reduce academic procrastination can be delivered by increasing students hope of success.

Adult soft tissue sarcomas of the head and neck treated by radiation and surgery or radiation alone: patterns of failure and prognostic factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willers, Henning; Hug, Eugen G.; Spiro, Ira J.; Efird, Jimmy T.; Rosenberg, Andrew E.; Wang, C. C.

1995-01-01

Purpose: To analyze our experience treating soft tissue sarcomas of the head and neck in adults, and to identify patterns of failure and prognostic factors. Methods and Materials: The records of 57 patients with Stage M0 disease treated by radiation with or without surgery between 1972 and 1993 were reviewed. Median follow-up time was 4.3 years (range, 1.1-16.8 years). A group of potential prognostic factors was evaluated, including age at diagnosis, sex, initial tumor presentation (primary vs. recurrent), grade, T-stage, direct tumor extension, tumor depth, duration of treatment, and radiation dose. Results: The subset of angiosarcomas (11 out of 57 patients) had a considerably adverse effect on treatment outcome for the total group of sarcomas, with actuarial 5-year overall survival (OS), locoregional control (LRC), and freedom from distant metastasis (FDM) rates being 31%, 24%, and 42%, respectively. In contrast, for the remaining 46 patients with other histopathological tumor types, OS, LRC, and FDM rates were significantly higher (74%, 69%, and 83%, respectively). For this group of significant prognostic factors identified by uni- and multivariate analysis included tumor grade as a predictor of OS and T-stage as a predictor of LRC (p ≤ 0.050). Those patients who experienced a locoregional recurrence were at a significantly increased risk of dying (p = 0.004 in a multivariate model). All 17 patients without direct tumor extension to neurovascular structures, bone, contiguous organs, or skin remained free from distant failure. In contrast, 27% of 29 patients with direct extension had developed distant metastases at 5 years. In multivariate analysis, the absence of direct extension was a positive predictor of FDM (p = 0.007) and of OS (p = 0.034). Conclusions: 1) Angiosarcomas of the head and neck have a considerably poorer prognosis than other soft tissue sarcomas of this site. 2) In addition to tumor grade and size, direct tumor extension may be a useful

Incomplete excision of non-melanoma skin cancer of the head and neck: can we predict failure?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjerkegaard, Ulrik Knap; Stolle, Lars Bjørn

2014-01-01

included into the study. Patients were identified by the diagnostic (diagnosis-related group (DRG)) codes from DC44.0 to DC44.4. A total of 437 patients were treated for 516 skin lesions. Results Mean age was 71.4 years and the male–female ratio was 1.29. Incomplete tumor removal was found in 11 % of all...... for complete tumor excision is mandatory prior to reconstruction. Our findings showed that causes of incomplete excision could be identified. With this knowledge, we are able to optimize our quality of treatment, patient satisfaction, and finally, the cost/effectiveness of our department. Level of Evidence......Background Reported incomplete excision rates vary widely. This study described a single center's treatment of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) of the head and neck and investigated possible causes of incomplete excision. Methods All excised BCCs and SCCs in 2011 were...

Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jirong

2017-12-01

The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

A model to predict failure of irradiated U–Mo dispersion fuel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burkes, Douglas E., E-mail: Douglas.Burkes@pnnl.gov; Senor, David J.; Casella, Andrew M.

2016-12-15

Highlights: • Simple model to predict failure of dispersion fuel meat designs. • Evaluated as a function of fabrication parameters and irradiation conditions. • Predictions compare well with experimental measurements of miniature fuel plates. • Interaction layer formation reduces matrix strength and increases temperature. • Si additions to the matrix appear effective only at moderate heat flux and burnup. - Abstract: Numerous global programs are focused on the continued development of existing and new research and test reactor fuels to achieve maximum attainable uranium loadings to support the conversion of a number of the world’s remaining high-enriched uranium fueled reactors to low-enriched uranium fuel. Some of these programs are focused on development and qualification of a fuel design that consists of a uranium–molybdenum (U–Mo) alloy dispersed in an aluminum matrix as one option for reactor conversion. The current paper extends a failure model originally developed for UO{sub 2}-stainless steel dispersion fuels and uses currently available thermal–mechanical property information for the materials of interest in the currently proposed design. A number of fabrication and irradiation parameters were investigated to understand the conditions at which failure of the matrix, classified as onset of pore formation in the matrix, might occur. The results compared well with experimental observations published as part of the Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR)-6 and -7 mini-plate experiments. Fission rate, a function of the {sup 235}U enrichment, appeared to be the most influential parameter in premature failure, mainly as a result of increased interaction layer formation and operational temperature, which coincidentally decreased the strength of the matrix and caused more rapid fission gas production and recoil into the surrounding matrix material. Addition of silicon to the matrix appeared effective at reducing the rate of

Predicting brain acceleration during heading of soccer ball

Science.gov (United States)

Taha, Zahari; Hasnun Arif Hassan, Mohd; Azri Aris, Mohd; Anuar, Zulfika

2013-12-01

There has been a long debate whether purposeful heading could cause harm to the brain. Studies have shown that repetitive heading could lead to degeneration of brain cells, which is similarly found in patients with mild traumatic brain injury. A two-degree of freedom linear mathematical model was developed to study the impact of soccer ball to the brain during ball-to-head impact in soccer. From the model, the acceleration of the brain upon impact can be obtained. The model is a mass-spring-damper system, in which the skull is modelled as a mass and the neck is modelled as a spring-damper system. The brain is a mass with suspension characteristics that are also defined by a spring and a damper. The model was validated by experiment, in which a ball was dropped from different heights onto an instrumented dummy skull. The validation shows that the results obtained from the model are in a good agreement with the brain acceleration measured from the experiment. This findings show that a simple linear mathematical model can be useful in giving a preliminary insight on what human brain endures during a ball-to-head impact.

The prediction of cyclic proximal humerus fracture fixation failure by various bone density measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Varga, Peter; Grünwald, Leonard; Windolf, Markus

2018-02-22

Fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures has remained challenging, but may be improved by careful pre-operative planning. The aim of this study was to investigate how well the failure of locking plate fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures can be predicted by bone density measures assessed with currently available clinical imaging (realistic case) and a higher resolution and quality modality (theoretical best-case). Various density measures were correlated to experimentally assessed number of cycles to construct failure of plated unstable low-density proximal humerus fractures (N = 18). The influence of density evaluation technique was investigated by comparing local (peri-implant) versus global evaluation regions; HR-pQCT-based versus clinical QCT-based image data; ipsilateral versus contralateral side; and bone mineral content (BMC) versus bone mineral density (BMD). All investigated density measures were significantly correlated with the experimental cycles to failure. The best performing clinically feasible parameter was the QCT-based BMC of the contralateral articular cap region, providing significantly better correlation (R 2  = 0.53) compared to a previously proposed clinical density measure (R 2  = 0.30). BMC had consistently, but not significantly stronger correlations with failure than BMD. The overall best results were obtained with the ipsilateral HR-pQCT-based local BMC (R 2  = 0.74) that may be used for implant optimization. Strong correlations were found between the corresponding density measures of the two CT image sources, as well as between the two sides. Future studies should investigate if BMC of the contralateral articular cap region could provide improved prediction of clinical fixation failure compared to previously proposed measures. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Preventing abusive head trauma resulting from a failure of normal interaction between infants and their caregivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Ronald G

2012-10-16

Head trauma from abuse, including shaken baby syndrome, is a devastating and potentially lethal form of infant physical abuse first recognized in the early 1970s. What has been less recognized is the role of the early increase in crying in otherwise normal infants in the first few months of life as a trigger for the abuse. In part, this is because infant crying, especially prolonged unsoothable crying, has been interpreted clinically as something wrong with the infant, the infant's caregiver, or the interactions between them. Here, we review an alternative developmental interpretation, namely, that the early increase in crying is a typical behavioral development in normal infants and usually does not reflect anything wrong or abnormal. We also review evidence indicating that this normal crying pattern is the most common trigger for abusive head trauma (AHT). Together, these findings point to a conceptualization of AHT as the consequence of a failure in an otherwise common, iterative, and developmentally normal infant-caregiver interaction. They also imply that there is a window of opportunity for prevention of AHT, and potentially other forms of infant abuse, through a public health primary universal prevention strategy aimed at changing knowledge and behaviors of caregivers and society in general concerning normal development of infants and the significance of early increased infant crying. If effective, there may be important implications for prevention of infant abuse nationally and internationally.

Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Main, I.; Naylor, M.

2012-05-01

Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a `black swan'. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify `characteristic' events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon's domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

SU-F-R-46: Predicting Distant Failure in Lung SBRT Using Multi-Objective Radiomics Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Z; Folkert, M; Iyengar, P; Zhang, Y; Wang, J [UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To predict distant failure in lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by using a new multi-objective radiomics model. Methods: Currently, most available radiomics models use the overall accuracy as the objective function. However, due to data imbalance, a single object may not reflect the performance of a predictive model. Therefore, we developed a multi-objective radiomics model which considers both sensitivity and specificity as the objective functions simultaneously. The new model is used to predict distant failure in lung SBRT using 52 patients treated at our institute. Quantitative imaging features of PET and CT as well as clinical parameters are utilized to build the predictive model. Image features include intensity features (9), textural features (12) and geometric features (8). Clinical parameters for each patient include demographic parameters (4), tumor characteristics (8), treatment faction schemes (4) and pretreatment medicines (6). The modelling procedure consists of two steps: extracting features from segmented tumors in PET and CT; and selecting features and training model parameters based on multi-objective. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used as the predictive model, while a nondominated sorting-based multi-objective evolutionary computation algorithm II (NSGA-II) is used for solving the multi-objective optimization. Results: The accuracy for PET, clinical, CT, PET+clinical, PET+CT, CT+clinical, PET+CT+clinical are 71.15%, 84.62%, 84.62%, 85.54%, 82.69%, 84.62%, 86.54%, respectively. The sensitivities for the above seven combinations are 41.76%, 58.33%, 50.00%, 50.00%, 41.67%, 41.67%, 58.33%, while the specificities are 80.00%, 92.50%, 90.00%, 97.50%, 92.50%, 97.50%, 97.50%. Conclusion: A new multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in NSCLC treated with SBRT was developed. The experimental results show that the best performance can be obtained by combining

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: usefulness of diffusion-weighted MR imaging in the prediction of a neoadjuvant therapeutic effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Hiroki; Tanaka, Osamu; Hoshi, Hiroaki; Kanematsu, Masayuki; Mizuta, Keisuke; Aoki, Mitsuhiro; Shibata, Toshiyuki; Yamashita, Tomomi; Hirose, Yoshinobu

2009-01-01

The purpose of our study was to evaluate the usefulness of diffusion-weighted imaging in predicting the responses to neoadjuvant therapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinomas. Diffusion-weighted, T2-weighted, and gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted images were obtained from 28 patients with untreated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas with histological proof. A blinded radiologist evaluated the quantitative and qualitative signal intensities and apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in the lesions on each sequence. All patients were treated by neoadjuvant therapies, and the post-therapeutic tumor regression rate was determined. Both the quantitative and qualitative signal intensities on diffusion-weighted images showed positive correlations (r=0.367 and 0.412, p<.05), and the ADCs showed a weak, inversed correlation (r=-0.384, p<.05) with the tumor regression rates. Diffusion-weighted imaging including an assessment by ADCs may be able to predict tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinomas. (orig.)

Lower head integrity under steam explosion loads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Theofanous, T.G.; Yuen, W.W.; Angelini, S.; Freeman, K.; Chen, X.; Salmassi, T. [Center for Risk Studies and Safety, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Sienicki, J.J.

1998-01-01

Lower head integrity under steam explosion loads in an AP600-like reactor design is considered. The assessment is the second part of an evaluation of the in-vessel retention idea as a severe accident management concept, the first part (DOE/ID-10460) dealing with thermal loads. The assessment is conducted in terms of the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM), and includes the comprehensive evaluation of all relevant severe accident scenarios, melt conditions and timing of release from the core region, fully 3D mixing and explosion wave dynamics, and lower head fragility under local, dynamic loading. All of these factors and brought together in a ROAAM Probabilistic Framework to evaluate failure likelihood. The conclusion is that failure is `physically unreasonable`. (author)

Predicting superdeformed rotational band-head spin in A ∼ 190 mass region using variable moment of inertia model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uma, V.S.; Goel, Alpana; Yadav, Archana; Jain, A.K.

2016-01-01

The band-head spin (I 0 ) of superdeformed (SD) rotational bands in A ∼ 190 mass region is predicted using the variable moment of inertia (VMI) model for 66 SD rotational bands. The superdeformed rotational bands exhibited considerably good rotational property and rigid behaviour. The transition energies were dependent on the prescribed band-head spins. The ratio of transition energies over spin Eγ/ 2 I (RTEOS) vs. angular momentum (I) have confirmed the rigid behaviour, provided the band-head spin value is assigned correctly. There is a good agreement between the calculated and the observed transition energies. This method gives a very comprehensive interpretation for spin assignment of SD rotational bands which could help in designing future experiments for SD bands. (author)

Stochastic failure modelling of unidirectional composite ply failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whiteside, M.B.; Pinho, S.T.; Robinson, P.

2012-01-01

Stochastic failure envelopes are generated through parallelised Monte Carlo Simulation of a physically based failure criteria for unidirectional carbon fibre/epoxy matrix composite plies. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the consequence on failure prediction of both statistical interaction of failure modes and uncertainty in global misalignment. Global variance-based Sobol sensitivity indices are computed to decompose the observed variance within the stochastic failure envelopes into contributions from physical input parameters. The paper highlights a selection of the potential advantages stochastic methodologies offer over the traditional deterministic approach.

Diagnostic prediction of renal failure from blood serum analysis by FTIR spectrometry and chemometrics

Science.gov (United States)

Khanmohammadi, Mohammdreza; Ghasemi, Keyvan; Garmarudi, Amir Bagheri; Ramin, Mehdi

2015-02-01

A new diagnostic approach based on Attenuated Total Reflectance-Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectrometry and classification algorithm has been introduced which provides a rapid, reliable, and easy way to perform blood test for the diagnosis of renal failure. Blood serum samples from 35 renal failure patients and 40 healthy persons were analyzed by ATR-FTIR spectrometry. The resulting data was processed by Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) and QDA combined with simple filtered method. Spectroscopic studies were performed in 900-2000 cm-1 spectral region with 3.85 cm-1 data space. Results showed 93.33% and 100% of accuracy for QDA and filter-QDA models, respectively. In the first step, 30 samples were applied to construct the model. In order to modify the capability of QDA in prediction of test samples, filter-based feature selection methods were applied. It was found that the filtered spectra coupled with QDA could correctly predict the test samples in most of the cases.

Serum Procalcitonin and Peripheral Venous Lactate for Predicting Dengue Shock and/or Organ Failure: A Prospective Observational Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vipa Thanachartwet

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Currently, there are no biomarkers that can predict the incidence of dengue shock and/or organ failure, although the early identification of risk factors is important in determining appropriate management to reduce mortality. Therefore, we sought to determine the factors associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure and to evaluate the prognostic value of serum procalcitonin (PCT and peripheral venous lactate (PVL levels as biomarkers of dengue shock and/or organ failure.A prospective observational study was conducted among adults hospitalized for confirmed viral dengue infection at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok, Thailand between October 2013 and July 2015. Data, including baseline characteristics, clinical parameters, laboratory findings, serum PCT and PVL levels, management, and outcomes, were recorded on pre-defined case report forms. Of 160 patients with dengue, 128 (80.0% patients had dengue without shock or organ failure, whereas 32 (20.0% patients developed dengue with shock and/or organ failure. Using a stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis, PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR]: 4.80; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.60-14.45; p = 0.005 and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L (OR: 27.99, 95% CI: 8.47-92.53; p <0.001 were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. A combination of PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L provided good prognostic value for predicting dengue shock and/or organ failure, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92, a sensitivity of 81.2% (95% CI: 63.6-92.8%, and a specificity of 84.4% (95% CI: 76.9-90.2%. Dengue shock patients with non-clearance of PCT and PVL expired during hospitalization.PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. The combination of PCT and PVL levels could be used as prognostic biomarkers for the prediction of dengue shock and/or organ failure.

A model for predicting embankment slope failures in clay-rich soils; A Louisiana example

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Burns, S. F.

2015-12-01

A model for predicting embankment slope failures in clay-rich soils; A Louisiana example It is well known that smectite-rich soils significantly reduce the stability of slopes. The question is how much smectite in the soil causes slope failures. A study of over 100 sites in north and south Louisiana, USA, compared slopes that failed during a major El Nino winter (heavy rainfall) in 1982-1983 to similar slopes that did not fail. Soils in the slopes were tested for per cent clay, liquid limits, plasticity indices and semi-quantitative clay mineralogy. Slopes with the High Risk for failure (85-90% chance of failure in 8-15 years after construction) contained soils with a liquid limit > 54%, a plasticity index over 29%, and clay contents > 47%. Slopes with an Intermediate Risk (55-50% chance of failure in 8-15 years) contained soils with a liquid limit between 36-54%, plasticity index between 16-19%, and clay content between 32-47%. Slopes with a Low Risk chance of failure (soils with a liquid limit plasticity index soil characteristics before construction. If the soils fall into the Low Risk classification, construct the embankment normally. If the soils fall into the High Risk classification, one will need to use lime stabilization or heat treatments to prevent failures. Soils in the Intermediate Risk class will have to be evaluated on a case by case basis.

Toward integration of genomic selection with crop modelling: the development of an integrated approach to predicting rice heading dates.

Science.gov (United States)

Onogi, Akio; Watanabe, Maya; Mochizuki, Toshihiro; Hayashi, Takeshi; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Iwata, Hiroyoshi

2016-04-01

It is suggested that accuracy in predicting plant phenotypes can be improved by integrating genomic prediction with crop modelling in a single hierarchical model. Accurate prediction of phenotypes is important for plant breeding and management. Although genomic prediction/selection aims to predict phenotypes on the basis of whole-genome marker information, it is often difficult to predict phenotypes of complex traits in diverse environments, because plant phenotypes are often influenced by genotype-environment interaction. A possible remedy is to integrate genomic prediction with crop/ecophysiological modelling, which enables us to predict plant phenotypes using environmental and management information. To this end, in the present study, we developed a novel method for integrating genomic prediction with phenological modelling of Asian rice (Oryza sativa, L.), allowing the heading date of untested genotypes in untested environments to be predicted. The method simultaneously infers the phenological model parameters and whole-genome marker effects on the parameters in a Bayesian framework. By cultivating backcross inbred lines of Koshihikari × Kasalath in nine environments, we evaluated the potential of the proposed method in comparison with conventional genomic prediction, phenological modelling, and two-step methods that applied genomic prediction to phenological model parameters inferred from Nelder-Mead or Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. In predicting heading dates of untested lines in untested environments, the proposed and two-step methods tended to provide more accurate predictions than the conventional genomic prediction methods, particularly in environments where phenotypes from environments similar to the target environment were unavailable for training genomic prediction. The proposed method showed greater accuracy in prediction than the two-step methods in all cross-validation schemes tested, suggesting the potential of the integrated approach in

Pretreatment Apparent Diffusion Coefficient of the Primary Lesion Correlates With Local Failure in Head-and-Neck Cancer Treated With Chemoradiotherapy or Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatakenaka, Masamitsu; Nakamura, Katsumasa; Yabuuchi, Hidetake; Shioyama, Yoshiyuki; Matsuo, Yoshio; Ohnishi, Kayoko; Sunami, Shunya; Kamitani, Takeshi; Setoguchi, Taro; Yoshiura, Takashi; Nakashima, Torahiko; Nishikawa, Kei; Honda, Hiroshi

2011-01-01

Purpose: This study was performed to evaluate whether the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of a primary lesion correlates with local failure in primary head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively studied 38 patients with primary HNSCC (12 oropharynx, 20 hypopharynx, 4 larynx, 2 oral cavity) treated with chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy with radiation dose to gross tumor volume equal to or over 60 Gy and who underwent pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging, including diffusion-weighted imaging. Ten patients developed local failure during follow-up periods of 2.0 to 9.3 months, and the remaining 28 showed local control during follow-up periods of 10.5 to 31.7 months. The variables that could affect local failure (age, tumor volume, ADC, T stage, N stage, dose, treatment method, tumor location, and overall treatment time) were analyzed using logistic regression analyses for all 38 patients and for 17 patients with Stage T3 or T4 disease. Results: In univariate logistic analysis for all 38 cases, tumor volume, ADC, T stage, and treatment method showed significant (p < 0.05) associations with local failure. In multivariate analysis, ADC and T stage revealed significance (p < 0.01). In univariate logistic analysis for the 17 patients with Stage T3 or T4 disease, ADC and dose showed significant (p < 0.01) associations with local failure. In multivariate analysis, ADC alone showed significance (p < 0.05). Conclusions: The results suggest that pretreatment ADC, along with T stage, is a potential indicator of local failure in HNSCC treated with chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy.

Reckoning Informal Politics: Expands the Logic of Survival and Failure of Regional Heads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wawan Sobari

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The qualitative research addresses the political logic of why and how the incumbents succeed and fail in direct election for regional heads (pilkada in emerging democratic Indonesia. De Mesquita et al. (2003 believe that, to survive in office, a leader needs to offer a benefit at least equal to the greatest possible benefit offered by a potential challenger. Particular to the pilkada cases in Indonesia, Erb and Sulistiyanto (2009 elaborate several factors connected to “reward and punishment” logic that may lead to the incumbents’ survival and failure in re-election bids. This study expands the logic by revealing that populism, rivalry, and tangibility are the core strategies for the successful incumbents in retaining their offices in four rural and urban regions in East Java. Particularly, the survival of an incumbent hinges on his capacity to manage rivalry risks, namely the capability to manage support and opposition both from formal and informal actors through fair or unfair means. These strategies, then, foster the success of patronage-based winning tactics to retain public office in the pilkada. To better assessment, it calls for the importance of democratic accountability as a complementary perspective (to consolidology in measuring the progress of democracy in the country. 

GPK heading machine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krmasek, J.; Novosad, K.

1981-01-01

This article evaluates performance tests of the Soviet made GPK heading machine carried out in 4 coal mines in Czechoslovakia (Ostrava-Karvina region and Kladno mines). GPK works in coal seams and rocks with compression strength of 40 to 50 MPa. Dimensions of the tunnel are height 1.8 to 3.8 m and width 2.6 to 4.7 m, tunnel gradient plus to minus 10 degrees. GPK weighs 16 t, its conical shaped cutting head equipped with RKS-1 cutting tools is driven by an electric motor with 55 kW capacity. Undercarriage of the GPK, gathering-arm loader, hydraulic system, electric system and dust supression system (water spraying or pneumatic section) are characterized. Specifications of GPK heading machines are compared with PK-3r and F8 heading machines. Reliability, number of failures, dust level, noise, productivity depending on compression strength of rocks, heading rate in coal and in rocks, energy consumption, performance in inclined tunnels, and cutting tool wear are evaluated. Tests show that GPK can be used to drive tunnels in coal with rock constituting up to 50% of the tunnel crosscut, as long as rock compression strength does not exceed 50 MPa. In rocks characterized by higher compression strength cutting tool wear sharply increases. GPK is characterized by higher productivity than that of the PK-3r heading machine. Among the weak points of the GPK are: unsatisfactory reliability and excessive wear of its elements. (4 refs.) (In Czech)

Prediction of failure in tube hydrofonning process using a damage model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majzoobi, G. H.; Saniee, F. Freshteh; Shirazi, A.

2007-01-01

In tube hydroforming process (THP), two types of loading, internal pressure and axial feeding and in particular the combination of them, are needed to feed the material into the cavities of the die to form the workpiece into the desired shape. If the variation of pressure versus axial feeding is not determined properly, the workpiece may be buckled, wrinkled or burst during THP. The appropriate variation is normally determined by experiment which is expensive and time-consuming. In this work, numerical simulation using Johnson-Cook models for predicting the elasto-plastic response and the failure of the material are employed to obtain the best combination of internal pressure and axial feeding. The numerical simulations are examined by a number of experiments conducted in the present investigation. The results show very close agreement between the numerical simulations and the experiments, suggesting that the numerical simulations using Johnson-Cook material and failure models provide a valuable tool to examine the different parameters involved in THP

Failure analysis and seal life prediction for contacting mechanical seals

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, J. J.; He, X. Y.; Wei, L.; Feng, X.

2008-11-01

Fault tree analysis method was applied to quantitatively investigate the causes of the leakage failure of mechanical seals. It is pointed out that the change of the surface topography is the main reasons causing the leakage of mechanical seals under the condition of constant preloads. Based on the fractal geometry theory, the relationship between the surface topography and working time were investigated by experiments, and the effects of unit load acting on seal face on leakage path in a mechanical seal were analyzed. The model of predicting seal life of mechanical seals was established on the basis of the relationship between the surface topography and working time and allowable leakage. The seal life of 108 mechanical seal operating at the system of diesel fuel storage and transportation was predicted and the problem of the condition monitoring for the long-period operation of mechanical seal was discussed by this method. The research results indicate that the method of predicting seal life of mechanical seals is feasible, and also is foundation to make scheduled maintenance time and to achieve safe-reliability and low-cost operation for industrial devices.

Vertebral body spread in thoracolumbar burst fractures can predict posterior construct failure.

Science.gov (United States)

De Iure, Federico; Lofrese, Giorgio; De Bonis, Pasquale; Cultrera, Francesco; Cappuccio, Michele; Battisti, Sofia

2018-06-01

The load sharing classification (LSC) laid foundations for a scoring system able to indicate which thoracolumbar fractures, after short-segment posterior-only fixations, would need longer instrumentations or additional anterior supports. We analyzed surgically treated thoracolumbar fractures, quantifying the vertebral body's fragment displacement with the aim of identifying a new parameter that could predict the posterior-only construct failure. This is a retrospective cohort study from a single institution. One hundred twenty-one consecutive patients were surgically treated for thoracolumbar burst fractures. Grade of kyphosis correction (GKC) expressed radiological outcome; Oswestry Disability Index and visual analog scale were considered. One hundred twenty-one consecutive patients who underwent posterior fixation for unstable thoracolumbar burst fractures were retrospectively evaluated clinically and radiologically. Supplementary anterior fixations were performed in 34 cases with posterior instrumentation failure, determined on clinic-radiological evidence or symptomatic loss of kyphosis correction. Segmental kyphosis angle and GKC were calculated according to the Cobb method. The displacement of fracture fragments was obtained from the mean of the adjacent end plate areas subtracted from the area enclosed by the maximum contour of vertebral fragmentation. The "spread" was derived from the ratio between this subtraction and the mean of the adjacent end plate areas. Analysis of variance, Mann-Whitney, and receiver operating characteristic were performed for statistical analysis. The authors report no conflict of interest concerning the materials or methods used in the present study or the findings specified in this paper. No funds or grants have been received for the present study. The spread revealed to be a helpful quantitative measurement of vertebral body fragment displacement, easily reproducible with the current computed tomography (CT) imaging technologies

Implicit and explicit attitudes predict smoking cessation: moderating effects of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit.

Science.gov (United States)

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C; Sherman, Steven J; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jonathan T

2010-12-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting short-term mortality in advanced decompensated heart failure - role of the updated acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic Peptide risk score.

Science.gov (United States)

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Passantino, Andrea; Guida, Pietro; D'Angelo, Luciana; Oliva, Fabrizio; Ciccone, Marco Matteo; Iacoviello, Massimo; Dentamaro, Ilaria; Santoro, Daniela; Lagioia, Rocco; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Guzzetti, Daniela; Frigerio, Maria

2015-01-01

The first few months after admission are the most vulnerable period in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We assessed the association of the updated ADHF/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) risk score with 90-day and in-hospital mortality in 701 patients admitted with advanced ADHF, defined as severe symptoms of worsening HF, severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, and the need for i.v. diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. A total of 15.7% of the patients died within 90 days of admission and 5.2% underwent ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation or urgent heart transplantation (UHT). The C-statistic of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score for 90-day mortality was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.769-0.852). Predicted and observed mortality rates were in close agreement. When the composite outcome of death/VAD/UHT at 90 days was considered, the C-statistic decreased to 0.741. During hospitalization, 7.6% of the patients died. The C-statistic for in-hospital mortality was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.761-0.868) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.71 (P=0.716). The updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score outperformed the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry, the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Program predictive models. Updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score is a valuable tool for predicting short-term mortality in severe ADHF, outperforming existing inpatient predictive models.

A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

2016-06-16

A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

What Predicts Children's Fixed and Growth Intelligence Mind-Sets? Not Their Parents' Views of Intelligence but Their Parents' Views of Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Haimovitz, Kyla; Dweck, Carol S

2016-06-01

Children's intelligence mind-sets (i.e., their beliefs about whether intelligence is fixed or malleable) robustly influence their motivation and learning. Yet, surprisingly, research has not linked parents' intelligence mind-sets to their children's. We tested the hypothesis that a different belief of parents-their failure mind-sets-may be more visible to children and therefore more prominent in shaping their beliefs. In Study 1, we found that parents can view failure as debilitating or enhancing, and that these failure mind-sets predict parenting practices and, in turn, children's intelligence mind-sets. Study 2 probed more deeply into how parents display failure mind-sets. In Study 3a, we found that children can indeed accurately perceive their parents' failure mind-sets but not their parents' intelligence mind-sets. Study 3b showed that children's perceptions of their parents' failure mind-sets also predicted their own intelligence mind-sets. Finally, Study 4 showed a causal effect of parents' failure mind-sets on their responses to their children's hypothetical failure. Overall, parents who see failure as debilitating focus on their children's performance and ability rather than on their children's learning, and their children, in turn, tend to believe that intelligence is fixed rather than malleable. © The Author(s) 2016.

Predicting material failure using mathematics; Mit Mathematik Materialversagen vorhersagen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Christian [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin (Germany)

2016-06-15

Numerical simulations provide insights into materials, technical procedures or processes that are hardly possible by means of measurement technology, or require a lot of effort. In BAM's ConDrop research project (Numerical Drop Test Analyses of Steel Sheet Containers for the Konrad Repository), scientists are developing a method to predict the deformation and failure behaviour of containers for low- and intermediate- level radioactive waste for the Konrad repository. [German] Numerische Simulationen erlauben Einblicke in Materialien, technische Verfahren oder Prozesse, die mit Mitteln der Messtechnik kaum oder nur unter grossem Aufwand moeglich sind. Im BAM-Forschungsvorhaben ConDrop entwickeln Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler damit eine Methode, um das Verformungs- und Versagensverhalten von Behaeltern fuer schwach- und mittelradioaktive Abfaelle fuer das Endlager Konrad vorherzusagen.

Does head CT scan pathology predict outcome after mild traumatic brain injury?

Science.gov (United States)

Lannsjö, M; Backheden, M; Johansson, U; Af Geijerstam, J L; Borg, J

2013-01-01

More evidence is needed to forward our understanding of the key determinants of poor outcome after mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI). A large, prospective, national cohort of patients was studied to analyse the effect of head CT scan pathology on the outcome. One-thousand two-hundred and sixty-two patients with MTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale score 15) at 39 emergency departments completed a study protocol including acute head CT scan examination and follow-up by the Rivermead Post Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire and the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) at 3 months after MTBI. Binary logistic regression was used for the assessment of prediction ability. In 751 men (60%) and 511 women (40%), with a mean age of 30 years (median 21, range 6-94), we observed relevant or suspect relevant pathologic findings on acute CT scan in 52 patients (4%). Patients aged below 30 years reported better outcome both with respect to symptoms and GOSE as compared to patients in older age groups. Men reported better outcome than women as regards symptoms (OR 0.64, CI 0.49-0.85 for ≥3 symptoms) and global function (OR 0.60, CI 0.39-0.92 for GOSE 1-6). Pathology on acute CT scan examination had no effect on self-reported symptoms or global function at 3 months after MTBI. Female gender and older age predicted a less favourable outcome. The findings support the view that other factors than brain injury deserve attention to minimize long-term complaints after MTBI. © 2012 The Author(s) European Journal of Neurology © 2012 EFNS.

Failure prediction for the optimization of stretch forming aluminium-polymer laminate foils used for pharmaceutical packaging

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Simon; Weygand, Sabine M.

2018-05-01

Axisymmetric stretch forming processes of aluminium-polymer laminate foils (e.g. consisting of PA-Al-PVC layers) are analyzed numerically by finite element modeling of the multi-layer material as well as experimentally in order to identify a suitable damage initiation criterion. A simple ductile fracture criterion is proposed to predict the forming limits. The corresponding material constants are determined from tensile tests and then applied in forming simulations with different punch geometries. A comparison between the simulations and the experimental results shows that the determined failure constants are not applicable. Therefore, one forming experiment was selected and in the corresponding simulation the failure constant was fitted to its measured maximum stretch. With this approach it is possible to predict the forming limit of the laminate foil with satisfying accuracy for different punch geometries.

Failure of Noninvasive Ventilation for De Novo Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure: Role of Tidal Volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Carteaux, Guillaume; Millán-Guilarte, Teresa; De Prost, Nicolas; Razazi, Keyvan; Abid, Shariq; Thille, Arnaud W; Schortgen, Frédérique; Brochard, Laurent; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Mekontso Dessap, Armand

2016-02-01

A low or moderate expired tidal volume can be difficult to achieve during noninvasive ventilation for de novo acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (i.e., not due to exacerbation of chronic lung disease or cardiac failure). We assessed expired tidal volume and its association with noninvasive ventilation outcome. Prospective observational study. Twenty-four bed university medical ICU. Consecutive patients receiving noninvasive ventilation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure between August 2010 and February 2013. Noninvasive ventilation was uniformly delivered using a simple algorithm targeting the expired tidal volume between 6 and 8 mL/kg of predicted body weight. Expired tidal volume was averaged and respiratory and hemodynamic variables were systematically recorded at each noninvasive ventilation session. Sixty-two patients were enrolled, including 47 meeting criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome, and 32 failed noninvasive ventilation (51%). Pneumonia (n = 51, 82%) was the main etiology of acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. The median (interquartile range) expired tidal volume averaged over all noninvasive ventilation sessions (mean expired tidal volume) was 9.8 mL/kg predicted body weight (8.1-11.1 mL/kg predicted body weight). The mean expired tidal volume was significantly higher in patients who failed noninvasive ventilation as compared with those who succeeded (10.6 mL/kg predicted body weight [9.6-12.0] vs 8.5 mL/kg predicted body weight [7.6-10.2]; p = 0.001), and expired tidal volume was independently associated with noninvasive ventilation failure in multivariate analysis. This effect was mainly driven by patients with PaO2/FIO2 up to 200 mm Hg. In these patients, the expired tidal volume above 9.5 mL/kg predicted body weight predicted noninvasive ventilation failure with a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 87%. A low expired tidal volume is almost impossible to achieve in the majority of patients receiving noninvasive ventilation

Fat suppression failure artifacts at the susceptibility interface on frequency selective fat suppression MR imaging in the head and neck

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anzai, Yoshimi; Minoshima, Satoshi; Uno, Kimiichi; Arimizu, Noboru; Lufkin, R.B.; Ishihara, Makiko; Yui, Nobuharu.

1994-01-01

Fat suppression MR imaging is a valuable technique mainly used for the orbit, head and neck, and spine, where the high signal from fat can often obscure adjacent pathology. Fat suppression failure artifact manifested as a high signal area without geographic disortion. The purpose of this study was to investigate the frequency and common location of these artifacts in clinical MR imaging and to caution against their misinterpretation. Fat suppression MR imaging of the head and neck was performed in 30 consecutive patients. The artifact was found in the orbital floor (57%), the skull base (10%), and subcutaneous fat (10%), where the air-fat interface is parallel to the static magnetic field direction. The fat signal in the air-fat interface perpendicular to the static magnetic field was well suppressed. This artifact was independent of the duration of TE, frequency/phase encoding direction, and the strength of gradient amplitude, and appeared to be related to the amount of surrounding air. This may simulate pathology if fat suppression is only performed following Gd-DTPA administration. The radiologist should be aware of the presence of artifact by considering the geographic relation to the static magnetic field. (author)

Defining and predicting 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' in congenital lower urinary tract obstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruano, Rodrigo; Safdar, Adnan; Au, Jason; Koh, Chester J; Gargollo, Patricio; Shamshirsaz, Alireza A; Espinoza, Jimmy; Cass, Darrell L; Olutoye, Oluyinka O; Olutoye, Olutoyin A; Welty, Stephen; Roth, David R; Belfort, Michael A; Braun, Michael C

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' in fetuses with severe congenital lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO). We undertook a retrospective study of 31 consecutive fetuses with a diagnosis of LUTO in a tertiary Fetal Center between April 2013 and April 2015. Predictors of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' were evaluated in those infants with severe LUTO who had either a primary composite outcome measure of neonatal death in the first 24 h of life due to severe pulmonary hypoplasia or a need for renal replacement therapy within 7 days of life. The following variables were analyzed: fetal bladder re-expansion 48 h after vesicocentesis, fetal renal ultrasound characteristics, fetal urinary indices, and amniotic fluid volume. Of the 31 fetuses included in the study, eight met the criteria for 'intrauterine fetal renal failure'. All of the latter had composite poor postnatal outcomes based on death within 24 h of life (n = 6) or need for dialysis within 1 week of life (n = 2). The percentage of fetal bladder refilling after vesicocentesis at time of initial evaluation was the only predictor of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' (cut-off <27 %, area under the time-concentration curve 0.86, 95 % confidence interval 0.68-0.99; p = 0.009). We propose the concept of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' in fetuses with the most severe forms of LUTO. Fetal bladder refilling can be used to reliably predict 'intrauterine fetal renal failure', which is associated with severe pulmonary hypoplasia or the need for dialysis within a few days of life.

Prediction of line failure fault based on weighted fuzzy dynamic clustering and improved relational analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Xiaocheng; Che, Renfei; Gao, Shi; He, Juntao

2018-04-01

With the advent of large data age, power system research has entered a new stage. At present, the main application of large data in the power system is the early warning analysis of the power equipment, that is, by collecting the relevant historical fault data information, the system security is improved by predicting the early warning and failure rate of different kinds of equipment under certain relational factors. In this paper, a method of line failure rate warning is proposed. Firstly, fuzzy dynamic clustering is carried out based on the collected historical information. Considering the imbalance between the attributes, the coefficient of variation is given to the corresponding weights. And then use the weighted fuzzy clustering to deal with the data more effectively. Then, by analyzing the basic idea and basic properties of the relational analysis model theory, the gray relational model is improved by combining the slope and the Deng model. And the incremental composition and composition of the two sequences are also considered to the gray relational model to obtain the gray relational degree between the various samples. The failure rate is predicted according to the principle of weighting. Finally, the concrete process is expounded by an example, and the validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified.

On the prediction of the reactor vessel integrity under severe accident loadings (RPVSA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krieg, R. E-mail: maeule@irs.fzk.de; Devos, J.; Caroli, C.; Solomos, G.; Ennis, P.J.; Kalkhof, D

2001-11-01

In order to allow more reliable predictions on the lower head response under core melt-down conditions, the temperature distribution has been analysed including the natural convection in the corium pool. Furthermore, the mechanical models and the failure criteria have been improved based on the RUPTHER and FASTHER experiments where typical temperature gradients are simulated. Lower head local melting as well as corium crust development has been addressed in the CORVIS experiments studying the contact between an alumina/iron thermite and a thick steel plate. The upper head loading by corium impact due to a postulated in-vessel steam explosion has been investigated by the BERDA experiments. Similarity rules were considered such that the results can be directly converted to reactor conditions. Based on these investigations admissible steam explosion energy releases are determined which the upper head can carry. If these limits are not exceeded the reactor containment cannot be endangered by broken head fragments. To provide the necessary basic data, mechanical material tests have been performed.

Economic sustainability in franchising: a model to predict franchisor success or failure

OpenAIRE

Calderón Monge, Esther; Pastor Sanz, Ivan .; Huerta Zavala, Pilar Angélica

2017-01-01

As a business model, franchising makes a major contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). A model that predicts franchisor success or failure is therefore necessary to ensure economic sustainability. In this study, such a model was developed by applying Lasso regression to a sample of franchises operating between 2002 and 2013. For franchises with the highest likelihood of survival, the franchise fees and the ratio of company-owned to franchised outlets were suited to the age ...

A predictive model for dysphagia following IMRT for head and neck cancer: Introduction of the EMLasso technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, De Ruyck; Duprez, Fréderic; Werbrouck, Joke; Sabbe, Nick; Sofie, De Langhe; Boterberg, Tom; Madani, Indira; Thas, Olivier; Wilfried, De Neve; Thierens, Hubert

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: Design a model for prediction of acute dysphagia following intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancer. Illustrate the use of the EMLasso technique for model selection. Material and methods: Radiation-induced dysphagia was scored using CTCAE v.3.0 in 189 head and neck cancer patients. Clinical data (gender, age, nicotine and alcohol use, diabetes, tumor location), treatment parameters (chemotherapy, surgery involving the primary tumor, lymph node dissection, overall treatment time), dosimetric parameters (doses delivered to pharyngeal constrictor (PC) muscles and esophagus) and 19 genetic polymorphisms were used in model building. The predicting model was achieved by EMLasso, i.e. an EM algorithm to account for missing values, applied to penalized logistic regression, which allows for variable selection by tuning the penalization parameter through crossvalidation on AUC, thus avoiding overfitting. Results: Fifty-three patients (28%) developed acute ⩾ grade 3 dysphagia. The final model has an AUC of 0.71 and contains concurrent chemotherapy, D 2 to the superior PC and the rs3213245 (XRCC1) polymorphism. The model’s false negative rate and false positive rate in the optimal operation point on the ROC curve are 21% and 49%, respectively. Conclusions: This study demonstrated the utility of the EMLasso technique for model selection in predictive radiogenetics

Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

2015-12-01

Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

Bayesian framework for prediction of future number of failures from a single group of units in the field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebrahimi, Nader

2009-01-01

This paper considers prediction of unknown number of failures in a future inspection of a group of in-service units based on number of failures observed from an earlier inspection. We develop a flexible Bayesian model and calculate Bayesian estimator for this unknown number and other quantities of interest. The paper also includes an illustration of our method in an example about heat exchanger. A main advantage of our approach is in its nonparametric nature. By nonparametric here we simply mean that no assumption is required about the failure time distribution of a unit

Prediction of thermal margin for external cooling of reactor vessel lower head during a severe accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Ho Jun; Suh, Kune Y.

1998-01-01

In the TMI-2 accident, approximately nineteen (19) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. One of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100 .deg. C for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel. Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, the COrium Attak Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in -vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) were demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the TMI-2 and the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNPP) reactors. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options. In studying the in-vessel severe accident phenomena, one of the main goals is to verify the cooling mechanism in the reactor vessel lower plenum and thereby to prevent the vessel failure from thermal attack by the molten debris. This paper presents the first-principle calculation results for the thermal margin for the case of external cooling of the reactor vessel lower head. Adopting the method presented by F.B. Cheung, et al., we calculated the departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) for the three cases of pool boiling, flow boiling

Management of Ventriculoperitoneal Shunt Infections in Adults: Analysis of Risk Factors Associated With Treatment Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Pelegrín, Iván; Lora-Tamayo, Jaime; Gómez-Junyent, Joan; Sabé, Nuria; García-Somoza, Dolors; Gabarrós, Andreu; Ariza, Javier; Viladrich, Pedro Fernández; Cabellos, Carmen

2017-04-15

Little is known regarding the optimal treatment of ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt infections in adults. Our aim was to assess the efficacy of treatment strategies and to identify factors that predict failure. Retrospective, observational study of patients aged ≥12 years with VP shunt infections (1980 -2014). Therapeutic approaches were classified under 4 headings: only antibiotics (OA), one-stage shunt replacement (OSSR), two-stage shunt replacement (TSSR), and shunt removal without replacement (SR). The primary endpoint was failure of the treatment strategy, defined as the absence of definite cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) sterilization or related mortality. The parameters that predicted failure were analyzed using logistic regression. Of 108 episodes (51% male, median age 50 years), 86 were analyzed. Intravenous antibiotics were administered for a median of 19 days. Eighty episodes were treated using strategies that combined antibiotic and surgical treatment (37 TSSR, 24 SR, 19 OSSR) and 6 with OA. Failure occurred in 30% of episodes, mostly due to lack of CSF sterilization in OSSR and OA groups. Twelve percent died of related causes and 10% presented superinfection of the CSF temporary drainage/externalized peritoneal catheter. TSSR was the most effective strategy when VP shunt replacement was attempted. The only independent risk factor that predicted failure was retention of the VP shunt, regardless of the strategy. This is the largest series of VP shunt infections in adults reported to date. VP shunt removal, particularly TSSR when the patient is shunt dependent, remains the optimal choice of treatment and does not increase morbidity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jia-Rong; DeWalt, Darren A; Baker, David W; Schillinger, Dean; Ruo, Bernice; Bibbins-Domingo, Kristen; Macabasco-O'Connell, Aurelia; Holmes, George M; Broucksou, Kimberly A; Erman, Brian; Hawk, Victoria; Cene, Crystal W; Jones, Christine DeLong; Pignone, Michael

2014-09-01

To determine whether a single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure. Poor medication adherence is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Having a simple means of identifying suboptimal medication adherence could help identify at-risk patients for interventions. We performed a prospective cohort study in 592 participants with heart failure within a four-site randomised trial. Self-report medication adherence was assessed at baseline using a single-item question: 'Over the past seven days, how many times did you miss a dose of any of your heart medication?' Participants who reported no missing doses were defined as fully adherent, and those missing more than one dose were considered less than fully adherent. The primary outcome was combined all-cause hospitalisation or death over one year and the secondary endpoint was heart failure hospitalisation. Outcomes were assessed with blinded chart reviews, and heart failure outcomes were determined by a blinded adjudication committee. We used negative binomial regression to examine the relationship between medication adherence and outcomes. Fifty-two percent of participants were 52% male, mean age was 61 years, and 31% were of New York Heart Association class III/IV at enrolment; 72% of participants reported full adherence to their heart medicine at baseline. Participants with full medication adherence had a lower rate of all-cause hospitalisation and death (0·71 events/year) compared with those with any nonadherence (0·86 events/year): adjusted-for-site incidence rate ratio was 0·83, fully adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·68. Incidence rate ratios were similar for heart failure hospitalisations. A single medication adherence question at baseline predicts hospitalisation and death over one year in heart failure patients. Medication adherence is associated with all-cause and heart failure-related hospitalisation and death in heart

In vitro/in silico investigation of failure criteria to predict flexural strength of composite resins.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamaguchi, Satoshi; Mehdawi, Idris Mohamed; Sakai, Takahiko; Abe, Tomohiro; Inoue, Sayuri; Imazato, Satoshi

2018-01-30

The aim of this study was to investigate a failure criterion to predict flexural strengths of composite resins (CR) by three-dimensional finite element analysis (3D-FEA). Models of flexural strength for test specimens of CR and rods comprising a three-point loading were designed. Calculation of Young's moduli and Poisson's ratios of CR were conducted using a modified McGee-McCullough model. Using the experimental CR, flexural strengths were measured by three-point bending tests with crosshead speed 1.0 mm/min and compared with the values determined by in silico analysis. The flexural strengths of experimental CR calculated using the maximum principal strain significantly correlated with those obtained in silico amongst the four types of failure criteria applied. The in silico analytical model established in this study was found to be effective to predict the flexural strengths of CR incorporating various silica filler contents by maximum principal strain.

Assessment of damage potential to the TMI-2 lower head due to thermal attack by core debris

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cronenberg, A.W.; Behling, S.R.; Broughton, J.M.

1986-06-01

Camera inspection of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) inlet plenum region has shown that approximately 10 to 20 percent of the core material loading may have relocated to the lower plenum. Although vessel integrity was maintained, a question of primary concern is ''how close to vessel failure'' did this accident come. This report summarizes the results of thermal analyses aimed at assessing damage potential to the TMI-2 lower head and attached instrument penetration tubes due to thermal attack by hot core debris. Results indicate that the instrument penetration nozzles could have experienced melt failure at localized hot spot regions, with attendant debris drainage and plugging of the instrument lead tubes. However, only minor direct thermal attack of the vessel liner is predicted

Predictive factors for the failure of endoscopic stent-in-stent self-expandable metallic stent placement to treat malignant hilar biliary obstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Sugimoto, Mitsuru; Takagi, Tadayuki; Suzuki, Rei; Konno, Naoki; Asama, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Ko; Nakamura, Jun; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Waragai, Yuichi; Takasumi, Mika; Sato, Yuki; Hikichi, Takuto; Ohira, Hiromasa

2017-09-14

To investigate the factors predictive of failure when placing a second biliary self-expandable metallic stents (SEMSs). This study evaluated 65 patients with an unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction who were examined in our hospital. Sixty-two of these patients were recruited to the study and divided into two groups: the success group, which consisted of patients in whom a stent-in-stent SEMS had been placed successfully, and the failure group, which consisted of patients in whom the stent-in-stent SEMS had not been placed successfully. We compared the characteristics of the patients, the stricture state of their biliary ducts, and the implemented endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures between the two groups. The angle between the target biliary duct stricture and the first implanted SEMS was significantly larger in the failure group than in the success group. There were significantly fewer wire or dilation devices (ERCP catheter, dilator, or balloon catheter) passing the first SEMS cell in the failure group than in the success group. The cut-off value of the angle predicting stent-in-stent SEMS placement failure was 49.7 degrees according to the ROC curve (sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 61.2%). Furthermore, the angle was significantly smaller in patients with wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell than in patients without wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell. A large angle was identified as a predictive factor for failure of stent-in-stent SEMS placement.

Experimental strength evaluation of cylinders with a flat head subjected to internal pressure at elevated temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Mitsuru; Makino, Yutaka

1978-01-01

The experiments using component test models such as a cylinder with a flat head and F.E.M. elastic analyses to investigate the secondary stress, peak stress and creep-fatigue interaction effect are described. The comparison of uniaxial stress with multiaxial stress about deformation and strength at elevated temperatures are also described here. The results of experiments and analysis are summarized as follows: (1) The maximum stress as the equivalent stress is the most suitable for the prediction of the creep failure life of cylinders subjected to internal pressure using the uniaxial creep test results. And the Mises's equivalent stress is the suitable for this prediction using the data of the onset of the uniaxial tertiary creep. (2) In the creep characteristics of the cylinder there, is no tertiary creep stage, and the rupture elongation of the cylinder accords with the elongation of the onset of the uniaxial tertiary creep. (3) It was recognized that the secondary stress occurred at the corner of the cylinder with a flat head has a little effect on creep and creep-fatigue life. (4) The life reduction effect due to the creep-fatigue interaction around the corner was recognized by the linear damage rule and compared with the value of Code Case 1592. (5) A difference of failure modes by imposed conditions for vessel with the size-discontinuity section was recognized by the cyclic internal pressure tests with hold time. (author)

Bulbar impairment score predicts noninvasive volume-cycled ventilation failure during an acute lower respiratory tract infection in ALS.

Science.gov (United States)

Servera, Emilio; Sancho, Jesús; Bañuls, Pilar; Marín, Julio

2015-11-15

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients can suffer episodes of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) leading to an acute respiratory failure (ARF) requiring noninvasive ventilation (NIV). To determine whether clinical or functional parameters can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI causing ARF in ALS. A prospective study involving all ALS patients with ARF requiring NIV in a Respiratory Care Unit. NIV was provided with volume-cycled ventilators. 63 ALS patients were included (APACHE II: 14.93±3.56, Norris bulbar subscore (NBS): 18.78±9.68, ALSFRS-R: 19.90±6.98, %FVC: 40.01±18.07%, MIC: 1.62±0.74L, PCF 2.51±1.15L/s, PImax -34.90±19.44cmH2O, PEmax 51.20±28.84cmH2O). In 73.0% of patients NIV was successful in averting death or endotracheal intubation. Differences were found between the success and failure in the NBS (22.08±6.15 vs 8.66±3.39, pNIV failure was the NBS (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31-0.92, p 0.002) with a cut-off point of 12 (S 0.93; E 0.97; PPV 0.76; NPV 0.97). NBS can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI in ALS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian J. Wells

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent.Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD, heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS for CHD and stroke, respectively.Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062, heart failure (1408, stroke (1451, and mortality (3661. The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730, heart failure (0.753, stroke (0.688, and mortality (0.719. The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke.Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading “Type 2 Diabetes” and entitled, “Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality.” This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician’s choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.

Failure criterion effect on solid production prediction and selection of completion solution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dariush Javani

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Production of fines together with reservoir fluid is called solid production. It varies from a few grams or less per ton of reservoir fluid posing only minor problems, to catastrophic amount possibly leading to erosion and complete filling of the borehole. This paper assesses solid production potential in a carbonate gas reservoir located in the south of Iran. Petrophysical logs obtained from the vertical well were employed to construct mechanical earth model. Then, two failure criteria, i.e. Mohr–Coulomb and Mogi–Coulomb, were used to investigate the potential of solid production of the well in the initial and depleted conditions of the reservoir. Using these two criteria, we estimated critical collapse pressure and compared them to the reservoir pressure. Solid production occurs if collapse pressure is greater than pore pressure. Results indicate that the two failure criteria show different estimations of solid production potential of the studied reservoir. Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion estimated solid production in both initial and depleted conditions, where Mogi–Coulomb criterion predicted no solid production in the initial condition of reservoir. Based on Mogi–Coulomb criterion, the well may not require completion solutions like perforated liner, until at least 60% of reservoir pressure was depleted which leads to decrease in operation cost and time.

Perfectionism and self-conscious emotions in British and Japanese students: Predicting pride and embarrassment after success and failure

OpenAIRE

Stoeber, Joachim; Kobori, Osamu; Tanno, Yoshihiko

2013-01-01

Regarding self-conscious emotions, studies have shown that different forms of perfectionism show different relationships with pride, shame, and embarrassment depending on success and failure. What is unknown is whether these relationships also show cultural variations. Therefore, we conducted a study investigating how self-oriented and socially prescribed perfectionism predicted pride and embarrassment after success and failure comparing 363 British and 352 Japanese students. Students were as...

Predicting survival in heart failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pocock, Stuart J; Ariti, Cono A; McMurray, John J V

2012-01-01

AimsUsing a large international database from multiple cohort studies, the aim is to create a generalizable easily used risk score for mortality in patients with heart failure (HF).Methods and resultsThe MAGGIC meta-analysis includes individual data on 39 372 patients with HF, both reduced...

Acute liver failure and self-medication

OpenAIRE

OLIVEIRA, André Vitorio Câmara de; ROCHA, Frederico Theobaldo Ramos; ABREU, Sílvio Romero de Oliveira

2014-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Not responsible self-medication refers to drug use in high doses without rational indication and often associated with alcohol abuse. It can lead to liver damage and drug interactions, and may cause liver failure. AIM: To warn about how the practice of self-medication can be responsible for acute liver failure. METHOD: Were used the Medline via PubMed, Cochrane Library, SciELO and Lilacs, and additional information on institutional sites of interest crossing the headings acute l...

Prostate cancer volume adds significantly to prostate-specific antigen in the prediction of early biochemical failure after external beam radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Amico, Anthony V.; Propert, Kathleen J.

1996-01-01

Purpose: A new clinical pretreatment quantity that closely approximates the true prostate cancer volume is defined. Methods and Materials: The cancer-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, prostate cancer volume (V Ca ), and the volume fraction of the gland involved with carcinoma (V Ca fx) were calculated for 227 prostate cancer patients managed definitively with external beam radiation therapy. 1. PSA density PSA/ultrasound prostate gland volume 2. Cancer-specific PSA = PSA - [PSA from benign epithelial tissue] 3. V Ca = Cancer-specific PSA/[PSA in serum per cm 3 of cancer] 4. V Ca fx = V Ca /ultrasound prostate gland volume A Cox multiple regression analysis was used to test whether any of these-clinical pretreatment parameters added significantly to PSA in predicting early postradiation PSA failure. Results: The prostate cancer volume (p = 0.039) and the volume fraction of the gland involved by carcinoma (p = 0.035) significantly added to the PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. Conversely, the PSA density and the cancer-specific PSA did not add significantly (p > 0.05) to PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. The 20-month actuarial PSA failure-free rates for patients with calculated tumor volumes of ≤0.5 cm 3 , 0.5-4.0 cm 3 , and >4.0 cm 3 were 92, 80, and 47%, respectively (p = 0.00004). Conclusion: The volume of prostate cancer (V Ca ) and the resulting volume fraction of cancer both added significantly to PSA in their ability to predict for early postradiation PSA failure. These new parameters may be used to select patients in prospective randomized trials that examine the efficacy of combining radiation and androgen ablative therapy in patients with clinically localized disease, who are at high risk for early postradiation PSA failure

Parent reports of health-related quality of life and heart failure severity score independently predict outcome in children with dilated cardiomyopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

den Boer, Susanna L; Baart, Sara J; van der Meulen, Marijke H; van Iperen, Gabriëlle G; Backx, Ad P; Ten Harkel, Arend D; Rammeloo, Lukas A; du Marchie Sarvaas, Gideon J; Tanke, Ronald B; Helbing, Willem A; Utens, Elisabeth M; Dalinghaus, Michiel

2017-08-01

Dilated cardiomyopathy in children causes heart failure and has a poor prognosis. Health-related quality of life in this patient group is unknown. Moreover, results may provide detailed information of parents' sense of their child's functioning. We hypothesised that health-related quality of life, as rated by parents, and the paediatric heart failure score, as assessed by physicians, have both predictive value on outcome. Methods and results In this prospective study, health-related quality of life was assessed by parent reports: the Infant Toddler Quality of Life questionnaire (0-4 years) or Child Health Questionnaire-Parent Form 50 (4-18 years) at 3-6-month intervals. We included 90 children (median age 3.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 0.9-12.3) whose parents completed 515 questionnaires. At the same visit, physicians completed the New York University Pediatric Heart Failure Index. Compared with Dutch normative data, quality of life was severely impaired at diagnosis (0-4 years: 7/10 subscales and 4-18 years: 8/11 subscales) and ⩾1 year after diagnosis (3/10 and 6/11 subscales). Older children were more impaired (pFailure Index were independently predictive of the risk of death and heart transplantation (hazard ratio 1.24 per 10% decrease of predicted, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.47 and hazard ratio 1.38 per unit, 95% CI 1.19-1.61, respectively). Physical impairment rated by parents and heart failure severity assessed by physicians independently predicted the risk of death or heart transplantation in children with dilated cardiomyopathy.

Theoretical and experimental study of the effect of fiber heads on the mechanical properties of non-continuous basalt fiber reinforced composites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2007-02-01

Full Text Available The effect of basalt fibers, produced by the Junkers technology and used as reinforcement in polymer composites, was modeled on the properties of composites, adapting the statistical fiber mat model of Poisson type. The random distribution was approximated by so-called effective spheres that act as defect sites in composites, reducing their strength. The role of fiber heads in strength reduction and the corresponding failure modes were analyzed theoretically using a model and by experiments performed on specimens containing a single fiber head located at different distances from the crack initiation. The applicability of the model was proven both experimentally and by finite element analysis. Based on all these investigations, the effective cross section reduction, and hence the strength reduction (predicted by the model caused by the presence of fiber heads was proven.

COPD predicts mortality in HF: the Norwegian Heart Failure Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

De Blois, Jonathan; Simard, Serge; Atar, Dan; Agewall, Stefan

2010-03-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic heart failure (HF) are common clinical conditions that share tobacco as a risk factor. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic impact of COPD on HF patients. The Norwegian Heart Failure Registry was used. The study included 4132 HF patients (COPD, n = 699) from 22 hospitals (mean follow-up, 13.3 months). COPD patients were older, more often smokers and diabetics, less often on beta-blockers and had a higher heart rate. They were more often in New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III or IV (COPD, 63%; no COPD, 51%), although left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) distribution was similar. COPD independently predicted death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.188; 95% CI: 1.015 to 1.391; P = 0.03) along with age, creatinine, NYHA Class III/IV (HR, 1.464; 95% CI: 1.286 to 1.667) and diabetes. beta-blockers at baseline were associated with improved survival in patients with LVEF < or =40% independently of COPD. COPD is associated with a poorer survival in HF patients. COPD patients are overrated in terms of NYHA class in comparison with patients with similar LVEF. Nonetheless, NYHA class remains the strongest predictor of death in these patients. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of the total motile sperm count to predict total fertilization failure in in vitro fertilization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Repping, Sjoerd; van Weert, Janne-Meije; Mol, Ben W. J.; de Vries, Jan W. A.; van der Veen, Fulco

2002-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the capacity of baseline characteristics and total motile sperm count (TMC) to predict total fertilization failure (TIFF) in patients undergoing IVF. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: University hospital. Patient(s): Eight hundred ninety-two couples with a total of

Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

2017-01-01

Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

Health Literacy and Global Cognitive Function Predict E-Mail but Not Internet Use in Heart Failure Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jared P. Schprechman

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. The internet offers a potential for improving patient knowledge, and e-mail may be used in patient communication with providers. However, barriers to internet and e-mail use, such as low health literacy and cognitive impairment, may prevent patients from using technological resources. Purpose. We investigated whether health literacy, heart failure knowledge, and cognitive function were related to internet and e-mail use in older adults with heart failure (HF. Methods. Older adults (N=119 with heart failure (69.84±9.09 years completed measures of health literacy, heart failure knowledge, cognitive functioning, and internet use in a cross-sectional study. Results. Internet and e-mail use were reported in 78.2% and 71.4% of this sample of patients with HF, respectively. Controlling for age and education, logistic regression analyses indicated that higher health literacy predicted e-mail (P<.05 but not internet use. Global cognitive function predicted e-mail (P<.05 but not internet use. Only 45% used the Internet to obtain information on HF and internet use was not associated with greater HF knowledge. Conclusions. The majority of HF patients use the internet and e-mail, but poor health literacy and cognitive impairment may prevent some patients from accessing these resources. Future studies that examine specific internet and email interventions to increase HF knowledge are needed.

Word Memory Test Predicts Recovery in Claimants With Work-Related Head Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Colangelo, Annette; Abada, Abigail; Haws, Calvin; Park, Joanne; Niemeläinen, Riikka; Gross, Douglas P

2016-05-01

To investigate the predictive validity of the Word Memory Test (WMT), a verbal memory neuropsychological test developed as a performance validity measure to assess memory, effort, and performance consistency. Cohort study with 1-year follow-up. Workers' compensation rehabilitation facility. Participants included workers' compensation claimants with work-related head injury (N=188; mean age, 44y; 161 men [85.6%]). Not applicable. Outcome measures for determining predictive validity included days to suspension of wage replacement benefits during the 1-year follow-up and work status at discharge in claimants undergoing rehabilitation. Analysis included multivariable Cox and logistic regression. Better WMT performance was significantly but weakly correlated with younger age (r=-.30), documented brain abnormality (r=.28), and loss of consciousness at the time of injury (r=.25). Claimants with documented brain abnormalities on diagnostic imaging scans performed better (∼9%) on the WMT than those without brain abnormalities. The WMT predicted days receiving benefits (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.24) and work status outcome at program discharge (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.34). Our results provide evidence for the predictive validity of the WMT in workers' compensation claimants. Younger claimants and those with more severe brain injuries performed better on the WMT. It may be that financial incentives or other factors related to the compensation claim affected the performance. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failed rib region prediction in a human body model during crash events with precrash braking.

Science.gov (United States)

Guleyupoglu, B; Koya, B; Barnard, R; Gayzik, F S

2018-02-28

The objective of this study is 2-fold. We used a validated human body finite element model to study the predicted chest injury (focusing on rib fracture as a function of element strain) based on varying levels of simulated precrash braking. Furthermore, we compare deterministic and probabilistic methods of rib injury prediction in the computational model. The Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) M50-O model was gravity settled in the driver position of a generic interior equipped with an advanced 3-point belt and airbag. Twelve cases were investigated with permutations for failure, precrash braking system, and crash severity. The severities used were median (17 kph), severe (34 kph), and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP; 56.4 kph). Cases with failure enabled removed rib cortical bone elements once 1.8% effective plastic strain was exceeded. Alternatively, a probabilistic framework found in the literature was used to predict rib failure. Both the probabilistic and deterministic methods take into consideration location (anterior, lateral, and posterior). The deterministic method is based on a rubric that defines failed rib regions dependent on a threshold for contiguous failed elements. The probabilistic method depends on age-based strain and failure functions. Kinematics between both methods were similar (peak max deviation: ΔX head = 17 mm; ΔZ head = 4 mm; ΔX thorax = 5 mm; ΔZ thorax = 1 mm). Seat belt forces at the time of probabilistic failed region initiation were lower than those at deterministic failed region initiation. The probabilistic method for rib fracture predicted more failed regions in the rib (an analog for fracture) than the deterministic method in all but 1 case where they were equal. The failed region patterns between models are similar; however, there are differences that arise due to stress reduced from element elimination that cause probabilistic failed regions to continue to rise after no deterministic failed region would be

A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...... by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P heart failure, this simple...

Impact of the Occlusion Duration on the Performance of J-CTO Score in Predicting Failure of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

Science.gov (United States)

de Castro-Filho, Antonio; Lamas, Edgar Stroppa; Meneguz-Moreno, Rafael A; Staico, Rodolfo; Siqueira, Dimytri; Costa, Ricardo A; Braga, Sergio N; Costa, J Ribamar; Chamié, Daniel; Abizaid, Alexandre

2017-06-01

The present study examined the association between Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan (J-CTO) score in predicting failure of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) correlating with the estimated duration of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The J-CTO score does not incorporate estimated duration of the occlusion. This was an observational retrospective study that involved all consecutive procedures performed at a single tertiary-care cardiology center between January 2009 and December 2014. A total of 174 patients, median age 59.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 53-65 years), undergoing CTO-PCI were included. The median estimated occlusion duration was 7.5 months (IQR, 4.0-12.0 months). The lesions were classified as easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2), and very difficult (score ≥3) in 51.1%, 33.9%, 9.2%, and 5.7% of the patients, respectively. Failure rate significantly increased with higher J-CTO score (7.9%, 20.3%, 50.0%, and 70.0% in groups with J-CTO scores of 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively; PJ-CTO score predicted failure of CTO-PCI independently of the estimated occlusion duration (P=.24). Areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed and it was observed that for each occlusion time period, the discriminatory capacity of the J-CTO score in predicting CTO-PCI failure was good, with a C-statistic >0.70. The estimated duration of occlusion had no influence on the J-CTO score performance in predicting failure of PCI in CTO lesions. The probability of failure was mainly determined by grade of lesion complexity.

Length of Barrett's segment predicts failure of eradication in radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus: a retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Luckett, Tyler; Allamneni, Chaitanya; Cowley, Kevin; Eick, John; Gullick, Allison; Peter, Shajan

2018-05-21

We aim to investigate factors that may contribute to failure of eradication of dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus among patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation treatment. A retrospective review of patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation for treatment of Barrett's Esophagus was performed. Data analyzed included patient demographics, medical history, length of Barrett's Esophagus, number of radiofrequency ablation sessions, and histopathology. Subsets of patients achieving complete eradication were compared with those not achieving complete eradication. A total of 107 patients underwent radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's Esophagus, the majority white, overweight, and male. Before treatment, 63 patients had low-grade dysplasia, and 44 patients had high-grade dysplasia or carcinoma. Complete eradication was achieved in a majority of patients (57% for metaplasia, and 76.6% for dysplasia). Failure of eradication occurred in 15.7% of patients. The median number of radiofrequency ablation treatments in patients achieving complete eradication was 3 sessions, compared to 4 sessions for failure of eradication (p = 0.06). Barrett's esophagus length of more than 5 cm was predictive of failure of eradication (p Radiofrequency ablation for dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus is a proven and effective treatment modality, associated with a high rate of complete eradication. Our rates of eradication from a center starting an ablation program are comparable to previously published studies. Length of Barrett's segment > 5 cm was found to be predictive of failure of eradication in patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation.

Prediction of traumatic avascular necrosis of the femoral head by single photon emission computerized tomography and computerized tomography: an experimental study in dogs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SHEN Feng

2012-02-01

Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To evaluate the femoral head perfusion and to predict the traumatic avascular necrosis (AVN of the femoral head by single photon emission computerized tomography and computerized tomography (SPECT/CT. Methods: Totally 18 adult beagle dogs were divided randomly into three equal-sized (n=6 groups. Subsequently different degrees of ischemia model were developed by destroying blood vessels of the femoral head. The left hip received sham operation as normal control and the right hip underwent blood interruption. In Group A, the ligamentum teres was cut off. In Group B, the marrow cavity of the right femoral neck was destroyed while in Group C, the soft tissues at the base of the femoral neck were stripped in addition to the resection of the ligamentum teres and destruction of the marrow cavity. Three hours after surgery, SPECT/CT was performed. Laser Doppler Flowmetry (LDF measurements were also obtained at three different time points (before operation, immediately and three hours after operation in order to assess the change process of blood supply to the femoral head. Results: SPECT/CT showed no significant difference in the radionuclide uptake between the right and left femoral heads in Group A (t=-0.09, P=0.94 and Group B (t= 0.52, P=0.62. However, in Group C, it was 261±62 for the right femoral head, only 12% of that in the left femoral head. LDF measurements indicated that the femoral head perfusion was decreased from (45.0±3.3 PU to (39.1±3.7 PU in Group A, from (44.0±2.7 PU to (34.3±2.6 PU in Group B, and from (47.3±2.1 PU to (4.96±0.6 PU in Group C immediately after operation. However, the perfusion was restored and returned to normal values three hours after operation except in Group C. Conclusion: SPECT/CT could assess the perfusion of the femoral head semiquantitatively, which might be useful in predicting the development of traumatic AVN. Key words: Femur head necrosis; Femoral head; Tomography, emission

Prediction of clinical toxicity in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients by radio-induced apoptosis in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bordón, Elisa; Henríquez-Hernández, Luis Alberto; Lara, Pedro C; Ruíz, Ana; Pinar, Beatriz; Rodríguez-Gallego, Carlos; Lloret, Marta

2010-01-01

Head and neck cancer is treated mainly by surgery and radiotherapy. Normal tissue toxicity due to x-ray exposure is a limiting factor for treatment success. Many efforts have been employed to develop predictive tests applied to clinical practice. Determination of lymphocyte radio-sensitivity by radio-induced apoptosis arises as a possible method to predict tissue toxicity due to radiotherapy. The aim of the present study was to analyze radio-induced apoptosis of peripheral blood lymphocytes in head and neck cancer patients and to explore their role in predicting radiation induced toxicity. Seventy nine consecutive patients suffering from head and neck cancer, diagnosed and treated in our institution, were included in the study. Toxicity was evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group scale. Peripheral blood lymphocytes were isolated and irradiated at 0, 1, 2 and 8 Gy during 24 hours. Apoptosis was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide. Lymphocytes were marked with CD45 APC-conjugated monoclonal antibody. Radiation-induced apoptosis increased in order to radiation dose and fitted to a semi logarithmic model defined by two constants: α and β. α, as the origin of the curve in the Y axis determining the percentage of spontaneous cell death, and β, as the slope of the curve determining the percentage of cell death induced at a determined radiation dose, were obtained. β value was statistically associated to normal tissue toxicity in terms of severe xerostomia, as higher levels of apoptosis were observed in patients with low toxicity (p = 0.035; Exp(B) 0.224, I.C.95% (0.060-0.904)). These data agree with our previous results and suggest that it is possible to estimate the radiosensitivity of peripheral blood lymphocytes from patients determining the radiation induced apoptosis with annexin V/propidium iodide staining. β values observed define an individual radiosensitivity profile that could predict late toxicity due to radiotherapy

Acceptability of the Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) clinical prediction tool: A qualitative study with child protection professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Cowley, Laura E; Maguire, Sabine; Farewell, Daniel M; Quinn-Scoggins, Harriet D; Flynn, Matthew O; Kemp, Alison M

2018-05-09

The validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) tool estimates the probability of abusive head trauma (AHT) based on combinations of six clinical features: head/neck bruising; apnea; seizures; rib/long-bone fractures; retinal hemorrhages. We aimed to determine the acceptability of PredAHT to child protection professionals. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with 56 participants: clinicians (25), child protection social workers (10), legal practitioners (9, including 4 judges), police officers (8), and pathologists (4), purposively sampled across southwest United Kingdom. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and imported into NVivo for thematic analysis (38% double-coded). We explored participants' evaluations of PredAHT, their opinions about the optimal way to present the calculated probabilities, and their interpretation of probabilities in the context of suspected AHT. Clinicians, child protection social workers and police thought PredAHT would be beneficial as an objective adjunct to their professional judgment, to give them greater confidence in their decisions. Lawyers and pathologists appreciated its value for prompting multidisciplinary investigations, but were uncertain of its usefulness in court. Perceived disadvantages included: possible over-reliance and false reassurance from a low score. Interpretations regarding which percentages equate to 'low', 'medium' or 'high' likelihood of AHT varied; participants preferred a precise % probability over these general terms. Participants would use PredAHT with provisos: if they received multi-agency training to define accepted risk thresholds for consistent interpretation; with knowledge of its development; if it was accepted by colleagues. PredAHT may therefore increase professionals' confidence in their decision-making when investigating suspected AHT, but may be of less value in court. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Failure analysis for ultrasound machines in a radiology department after implementation of predictive maintenance method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Greg Chu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: The objective of the study was to perform quantitative failure and fault analysis to the diagnostic ultrasound (US scanners in a radiology department after the implementation of the predictive maintenance (PdM method; to study the reduction trend of machine failure; to understand machine operating parameters affecting the failure; to further optimize the method to maximize the machine clinically service time. Materials and Methods: The PdM method has been implemented to the 5 US machines since 2013. Log books were used to record machine failures and their root causes together with the time spent on repair, all of which were retrieved, categorized, and analyzed for the period between 2013 and 2016. Results: There were a total of 108 cases of failure occurred in these 5 US machines during the 4-year study period. The average number of failure per month for all these machines was 2.4. Failure analysis showed that there were 33 cases (30.5% due to software, 44 cases (40.7% due to hardware, and 31 cases (28.7% due to US probe. There was a statistically significant negative correlation between the time spent on regular quality assurance (QA by hospital physicists with the time spent on faulty parts replacement over the study period (P = 0.007. However, there was no statistically significant correlation between regular QA time and total yearly breakdown case (P = 0.12, although there has been a decreasing trend observed in the yearly total breakdown. Conclusion: There has been a significant improvement on the machine failure of US machines attributed to the concerted effort of sonographers and physicists in our department to practice the PdM method, in that system component repair time has been reduced, and a decreasing trend in the number of system breakdown has been observed.

Validation of the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in Heart Failure Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussain, S.; Kayani, A.M.; Munir, R.

2014-01-01

Objective: To determine the effectiveness of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in a Pakistani systolic heart failure cohort in predicting mortality in this population. Study Design: Cohort study. Place and Duration of Study: The Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi, from March 2011 to March 2012. Methodology: One hundred and eighteen patients with heart failure (HF) from the registry were followed for one year. Their 1-year mortality was calculated using the SHFM software on their enrollment into the registry. After 1-year predicted 1-year mortality was compared with the actual 1-year mortality of these patients. Results: The mean age was 41.6 +- 14.9 years (16 - 78 years). There were 73.7% males and 26.3% females. One hundred and fifteen patients were in NYHA class III or IV. Mean ejection fraction in these patients was 23 +- 9.3%. Mean brain natriuretic peptide levels were 1230 A+- 1214 pg/mL. Sensitivity of the model was 89.3% with 71.1% specificity, 49% positive predictive value and 95.5% negative predictive value. The accuracy of the model was 75.4%. In Roc analysis, AUC for the SHFM was 0.802 (p<0.001). conclusion: SHFM was found to be reliable in predicting one year mortality among patients with heart failure in the pakistan patients. (author)

Quantification of the effects of VRN1 and Ppd-D1 to predict spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) heading time across diverse environments

OpenAIRE

Zheng, Bangyou; Biddulph, Ben; Li, Dora; Kuchel, Haydn; Chapman, Scott

2013-01-01

Heading time is a major determinant of the adaptation of wheat to different environments, and is critical in minimizing risks of frost, heat, and drought on reproductive development. Given that major developmental genes are known in wheat, a process-based model, APSIM, was modified to incorporate gene effects into estimation of heading time, while minimizing degradation in the predictive capability of the model. Model parameters describing environment responses were replaced with functions of...

Prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure using transient elastography in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Jie-Wen; Ji, Xiao-Yu; Hong, Jun-Feng; Li, Wan-Bin; Chen, Yan; Pan, Yan; Guo, Jia

2017-12-29

It is essential to accurately predict Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) which is a life-threatening complication. Liver hardness measurement (LSM) is widely used in non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis. The aims of this study were to explore the application of preoperative liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by transient elastography in predicting postoperative liver failure (PHLF) in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma. The study included 247 consecutive patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent hepatectomy between May 2015 and September 2015. Detailed preoperative examinations including LSM were performed before hepatectomy. The endpoint was the development of PHLF. All of the patients had chronic hepatitis B defined as the presence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) for more than 6 months and 76 (30.8%) had cirrhosis. PHLF occurred in 37 (14.98%) patients. Preoperative LSM (odds ratio, OR, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 1.13-1.29; P hepatocellular carcinoma.

Prediction model to predict critical weight loss in patients with head and neck cancer during (chemo)radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Langius, Jacqueline A E; Twisk, Jos; Kampman, Martine; Doornaert, Patricia; Kramer, Mark H H; Weijs, Peter J M; Leemans, C René

2016-01-01

Patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) frequently encounter weight loss with multiple negative outcomes as a consequence. Adequate treatment is best achieved by early identification of patients at risk for critical weight loss. The objective of this study was to detect predictive factors for critical weight loss in patients with HNC receiving (chemo)radiotherapy ((C)RT). In this cohort study, 910 patients with HNC were included receiving RT (±surgery/concurrent chemotherapy) with curative intent. Body weight was measured at the start and end of (C)RT. Logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were used to analyse predictive factors for critical weight loss (defined as >5%) during (C)RT. Possible predictors included gender, age, WHO performance status, tumour location, TNM classification, treatment modality, RT technique (three-dimensional conformal RT (3D-RT) vs intensity-modulated RT (IMRT)), total dose on the primary tumour and RT on the elective or macroscopic lymph nodes. At the end of (C)RT, mean weight loss was 5.1±4.9%. Fifty percent of patients had critical weight loss during (C)RT. The main predictors for critical weight loss during (C)RT by both logistic and CART analyses were RT on the lymph nodes, higher RT dose on the primary tumour, receiving 3D-RT instead of IMRT, and younger age. Critical weight loss during (C)RT was prevalent in half of HNC patients. To predict critical weight loss, a practical prediction tree for adequate nutritional advice was developed, including the risk factors RT to the neck, higher RT dose, 3D-RT, and younger age. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the need for adaptive radiotherapy in head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Elizabeth; Owen, Rebecca; Harden, Fiona; Mengersen, Kerrie; Oestreich, Kimberley; Houghton, Whitney; Poulsen, Michael; Harris, Selina; Lin, Charles; Porceddu, Sandro

2015-01-01

Background and purpose: Adaptive radiotherapy (ART) can account for the dosimetric impact of anatomical change in head and neck cancer patients; however it can be resource intensive. Consequently, it is imperative that patients likely to require ART are identified. The purpose of this study was to find predictive factors that identify oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients more likely to need ART. Materials and methods: One hundred and ten patients with OPC or NPC were analysed. Patient demographics and tumour characteristics were compared between patients who were replanned and those that were not. Factors found to be significant were included in logistic regression models. Risk profiles were developed from these models. A dosimetric analysis was performed. Results: Nodal disease stage, pre-treatment largest involved node size, diagnosis and initial weight (categorised in 2 groups) were identified as significant for inclusion in the model. Two models were found to be significant (p = 0.001), correctly classifying 98.2% and 96.1% of patients respectively. Three ART risk profiles were developed. Conclusion: Predictive factors identifying OPC or NPC patients more likely to require ART were reported. A risk profile approach could facilitate the effective implementation of ART into radiotherapy departments through forward planning and appropriate resource allocation

Artificial neural network approach to predict surgical site infection after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Pao-Jen; Wu, Shao-Chun; Chien, Peng-Chen; Chang, Shu-Shya; Rau, Cheng-Shyuan; Tai, Hsueh-Ling; Peng, Shu-Hui; Lin, Yi-Chun; Chen, Yi-Chun; Hsieh, Hsiao-Yun; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2018-03-02

The aim of this study was to develop an effective surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model in patients receiving free-flap reconstruction after surgery for head and neck cancer using artificial neural network (ANN), and to compare its predictive power with that of conventional logistic regression (LR). There were 1,836 patients with 1,854 free-flap reconstructions and 438 postoperative SSIs in the dataset for analysis. They were randomly assigned tin ratio of 7:3 into a training set and a test set. Based on comprehensive characteristics of patients and diseases in the absence or presence of operative data, prediction of SSI was performed at two time points (pre-operatively and post-operatively) with a feed-forward ANN and the LR models. In addition to the calculated accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, the predictive performance of ANN and LR were assessed based on area under the curve (AUC) measures of receiver operator characteristic curves and Brier score. ANN had a significantly higher AUC (0.892) of post-operative prediction and AUC (0.808) of pre-operative prediction than LR (both P <0.0001). In addition, there was significant higher AUC of post-operative prediction than pre-operative prediction by ANN (p<0.0001). With the highest AUC and the lowest Brier score (0.090), the post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall predictive performance. The post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall performance in predicting SSI after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer.

[Diagnostic and organizational error in head injuries].

Science.gov (United States)

Zaba, Czesław; Zaba, Zbigniew; Swiderski, Paweł; Lorkiewicz-Muszyíska, Dorota

2009-01-01

The study aimed at presenting a case of a diagnostic and organizational error involving lack of detection of foreign body presence in the soft tissues of the head. Head radiograms in two projections clearly demonstrated foreign bodies that resembled in shape flattened bullets, which could not have been missed upon evaluation of the X-rays. On the other hand, description of the radiograms entered by the attending physicians to the patient's medical record indicated an absence of traumatic injuries or foreign bodies. In the opinion of the authors, the case in question involved a diagnostic error: the doctors failed to detect the presence of foreign bodies in the head. The organizational error involved the failure of radiogram evaluation performed by a radiologist.

[The Predictive Factors of Stent Failure in the Treatment of Malignant Extrinsc Ureteral Obstruction Using Internal Ureteral Stents].

Science.gov (United States)

Matsuura, Hiroshi; Arase, Shigeki; Hori, Yasuhide; Tochigi, Hiromi

2017-12-01

In this study, we retrospectively reviewed the experiences at our single institute in the treatment of malignant extrinsic ureteral obstruction (MUO) using ureteral stents to investigate the clinical outcomes and the predictive factors of stent failure. In 52 ureters of 38 patients who had radiologically significant hydronephrosis due to MUO, internal ureteral stents (The BARD(R) INLAY(TM) ureteral stent set) were inserted. The median follow-up interval after the initial stent insertion was 124.5 days (4-1,120). Stent failure occurred in 8 ureters (15.4%) of the 7 patients. The median interval from the first stent insertion to stent failure was 88 days (1-468). A Cox regression multivariate analysis showed that the significant predictors of stent failure were bladder invasion. Based on the possibility of stent failure, the adaptation of the internal ureteral stent placement should be considered especially in a patient with MUO combined with bladder invasion.

Prediction of dynamic expected time to system failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Deog Yeon; Lee, Chong Chul [Korea Nuclear Fuel Co., Ltd., Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1998-12-31

The mean time to failure (MTTF) expressing the mean value of the system life is a measure of system effectiveness. To estimate the remaining life of component and/or system, the dynamic mean time to failure concept is suggested. It is the time-dependent property depending on the status of components. The Kalman filter is used to estimate the reliability of components using the on-line information (directly measured sensor output or device-specific diagnostics in the intelligent sensor) in form of the numerical value (state factor). This factor considers the persistency of the fault condition and confidence level in measurement. If there is a complex system with many components, each calculated reliability`s of components are combined, which results in the dynamic MTTF of system. The illustrative examples are discussed. The results show that the dynamic MTTF can well express the component and system failure behaviour whether any kinds of failure are occurred or not. 9 refs., 6 figs. (Author)

Prediction of dynamic expected time to system failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Deog Yeon; Lee, Chong Chul [Korea Nuclear Fuel Co., Ltd., Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1997-12-31

The mean time to failure (MTTF) expressing the mean value of the system life is a measure of system effectiveness. To estimate the remaining life of component and/or system, the dynamic mean time to failure concept is suggested. It is the time-dependent property depending on the status of components. The Kalman filter is used to estimate the reliability of components using the on-line information (directly measured sensor output or device-specific diagnostics in the intelligent sensor) in form of the numerical value (state factor). This factor considers the persistency of the fault condition and confidence level in measurement. If there is a complex system with many components, each calculated reliability`s of components are combined, which results in the dynamic MTTF of system. The illustrative examples are discussed. The results show that the dynamic MTTF can well express the component and system failure behaviour whether any kinds of failure are occurred or not. 9 refs., 6 figs. (Author)

Ductile shear failure or plug failure of spot welds modelled by modified Gurson model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kim Lau; Tvergaard, Viggo

2010-01-01

For resistance spot welded shear-lab specimens, interfacial failure under ductile shearing or ductile plug failure are analyzed numerically, using a shear modified Gurson model. The interfacial shear failure occurs under very low stress triaxiality, where the original Gurson model would predict...

Predictive modelling of fatigue failure in concentrated lubricated contacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, H P; Snidle, R W; Sharif, K J; Bryant, M J

2012-01-01

Reducing frictional losses in response to the energy agenda will require use of less viscous lubricants causing hydrodynamically-lubricated bearings to operate with thinner films leading to "mixed lubrication" conditions in which a degree of direct interaction occurs between surfaces protected only by boundary tribofilms. The paper considers the consequences of thinner films and mixed lubrication for concentrated contacts such as those occurring between the teeth of power transmission gears and in rolling element bearings. Surface fatigue in gears remains a serious problem in demanding applications, and its solution will become more pressing with the tendency towards thinner oils. The particular form of failure examined here is micropitting, which is identified as a fatigue phenomenon occurring at the scale of the surface roughness asperities. It has emerged recently as a systemic difficulty in the operation of large scale wind turbines where it occurs in both power transmission gears and their support bearings. Predictive physical modelling of these contacts requires a transient mixed lubrication analysis for conditions in which the predicted lubricant film thickness is of the same order or significantly less than the height of surface roughness features. Numerical solvers have therefore been developed which are able to deal with situations in which transient solid contacts occur between surface asperity features under realistic engineering conditions. Results of the analysis, which reveal the detailed time-varying behaviour of pressure and film clearance, have been used to predict fatigue and damage accumulation at the scale of surface asperity features with the aim of improving understanding of the micropitting phenomenon. The possible consequences on fatigue of residual stress fields resulting from plastic deformation of surface asperities is also considered.

Utility of FMISO PET in advanced head and neck cancer treated with chemoradiation incorporating a hypoxia-targeting chemotherapy agent

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hicks, Rodney J. [Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Centre for Molecular Imaging, Melbourne (Australia); University of Melbourne, Department of Medicine, St Vincent' s Medical School, Melbourne (Australia); Rischin, Danny [University of Melbourne, Department of Medicine, St Vincent' s Medical School, Melbourne (Australia); Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Division of Haematology and Medical Oncology, Melbourne (Australia); Fisher, Richard [Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Centre for Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Melbourne (Australia); Binns, David [Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Centre for Molecular Imaging, Melbourne (Australia); Scott, Andrew M. [Austin Hospital, Centre for PET, and Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research, Melbourne (Australia); Peters, Lester J. [Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Division of Radiation Oncology, Melbourne (Australia)

2005-12-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate [{sup 18}F]fluoromisonidazole (FMISO) PET in advanced head and neck cancer during hypoxia-targeting therapy. Fifteen of 16 patients in a phase I trial of chemoradiation plus tirapazamine (specific cytotoxin for hypoxic cells) in advanced (T3/4 and/or N2/3) head and neck cancer underwent serial [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and FMISO PET. We have previously reported excellent early clinical outcome of these patients and now review FMISO PET results in the context of longer follow-up of this patient cohort. Based on blinded qualitative scoring by two readers, FMISO PET was positive in 13/15 patients at baseline: 12/15 of primary sites and 8/13 neck nodes were scored as positive. All sites of corresponding FDG and FMISO abnormality at baseline showed marked qualitative reduction of uptake within 4 weeks of commencing therapy, consistent with effective hypoxia-targeted therapy. With a median follow-up of 6.9 years, there have been only four locoregional failures, while three other patients have died of metachronous lung cancer. The 5-year overall survival was 50% (95% CI 27-73%), the 5-year failure-free survival was 44% (95% CI 22-68%) and the 5-year freedom from locoregional failure was 68% (95% CI 38-88%). The high prevalence of hypoxia demonstrated on FMISO PET imaging is consistent with the advanced disease stage of these patients and would be expected to predict an adverse prognosis. Evidence of the early resolution of FMISO abnormality during treatment, associated with excellent locoregional control in this patient cohort, supports further investigation of hypoxia-targeting agents in advanced head and neck cancer. (orig.)

Utility of FMISO PET in advanced head and neck cancer treated with chemoradiation incorporating a hypoxia-targeting chemotherapy agent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hicks, Rodney J.; Rischin, Danny; Fisher, Richard; Binns, David; Scott, Andrew M.; Peters, Lester J.

2005-01-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate [ 18 F]fluoromisonidazole (FMISO) PET in advanced head and neck cancer during hypoxia-targeting therapy. Fifteen of 16 patients in a phase I trial of chemoradiation plus tirapazamine (specific cytotoxin for hypoxic cells) in advanced (T3/4 and/or N2/3) head and neck cancer underwent serial [ 18 F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and FMISO PET. We have previously reported excellent early clinical outcome of these patients and now review FMISO PET results in the context of longer follow-up of this patient cohort. Based on blinded qualitative scoring by two readers, FMISO PET was positive in 13/15 patients at baseline: 12/15 of primary sites and 8/13 neck nodes were scored as positive. All sites of corresponding FDG and FMISO abnormality at baseline showed marked qualitative reduction of uptake within 4 weeks of commencing therapy, consistent with effective hypoxia-targeted therapy. With a median follow-up of 6.9 years, there have been only four locoregional failures, while three other patients have died of metachronous lung cancer. The 5-year overall survival was 50% (95% CI 27-73%), the 5-year failure-free survival was 44% (95% CI 22-68%) and the 5-year freedom from locoregional failure was 68% (95% CI 38-88%). The high prevalence of hypoxia demonstrated on FMISO PET imaging is consistent with the advanced disease stage of these patients and would be expected to predict an adverse prognosis. Evidence of the early resolution of FMISO abnormality during treatment, associated with excellent locoregional control in this patient cohort, supports further investigation of hypoxia-targeting agents in advanced head and neck cancer. (orig.)

A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baumann, Brian C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Guzzo, Thomas J. [Department of Urology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); He Jiwei [Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Keefe, Stephen M. [Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Tucker, Kai; Bekelman, Justin E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Hwang, Wei-Ting [Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Vaughn, David J. [Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Malkowicz, S. Bruce [Department of Urology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Christodouleas, John P., E-mail: christojo@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

2013-01-01

Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed after RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common

A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei; Keefe, Stephen M.; Tucker, Kai; Bekelman, Justin E.; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Vaughn, David J.; Malkowicz, S. Bruce; Christodouleas, John P.

2013-01-01

Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed after RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage ≥pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage ≥pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk (≤pT2), intermediate-risk (≥pT3 and ≥10 nodes removed), and high-risk (≥pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common in

Stress evaluation of baffle former bolt for IASCC failure prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsubara, T.; Tsutsui, T.; Kamei, Y.; Kitsu, M.

2011-01-01

Baffle structure in PWRs Reactor is quite important assembly for the core safety, and Baffle Former Bolts (BFBs) are fastener members for maintaining Baffle structure. It has been reported worldwide that some of BFBs were cracked due to IASCC (Irradiation Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking) because BFBs are located at core region under severe environments, high neutron flux, high temperature and high stress. According to the material studies of IASCC on austenitic stainless steel, a crack initiation of IASCC is strongly related with the stress and the neutron fluence. For this reason, it is very important for IASCC failure prediction to simulate the stress of BFBs. However, the stress of BFBs are considered to be influenced by several factors and to be changed complexly as operational time increases, by irradiation creep of Bolt itself, swelling of Baffle structure, and so on. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate the stress histories of BFBs (Bolt stress as a function of operational time) precisely. Then, the author has developed the calculation method of the stress histories of BFBs considering irradiation effects (swelling and irradiation creep). In this method, the stress histories of BFBs are calculated by combining two kinds of FE models, Global model (modeled whole Baffle structure which consists of Baffle plates, Former plates and Core Barrel) and Local model (modeled around BFB finely). The whole Baffle structure deformation changes as a function of heat, swelling and irradiated creep are calculated by Global model, and the stress histories of BFBs are calculated by Local model using the outputs (deformations on driving nodes) of Global model. In the FE analysis of Local model, the stress of BFBs are calculated considering irradiation effects and elastic-plastic characteristics depending on neutron fluence, so this method enables to calculate precisely the stress of extreme small area of BFBs surface. This paper shows the outline of the calculation method

Application Of Data Mining Techniques For Student Success And Failure Prediction The Case Of DebreMarkos University

OpenAIRE

Muluken Alemu Yehuala

2015-01-01

Abstract This research work has investigated the potential applicability of data mining technology to predict student success and failure cases on University students datasets. CRISP-DM Cross Industry Standard Process for Data mining is a data mining methodology to be used by the research. Classification and prediction data mining functionalities are used to extract hidden patterns from students data. These patterns can be seen in relation to different variables in the students records. The ...

Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Predict Smoking Cessation: Moderating Effects of Experienced Failure to Control Smoking and Plans to Quit

OpenAIRE

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Steven J.; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jon

2010-01-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly...

Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

Science.gov (United States)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2002-01-01

NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

Genomic Selection for Predicting Fusarium Head Blight Resistance in a Wheat Breeding Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcio P. Arruda

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Genomic selection (GS is a breeding method that uses marker–trait models to predict unobserved phenotypes. This study developed GS models for predicting traits associated with resistance to head blight (FHB in wheat ( L.. We used genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS to identify 5054 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, which were then treated as predictor variables in GS analysis. We compared how the prediction accuracy of the genomic-estimated breeding values (GEBVs was affected by (i five genotypic imputation methods (random forest imputation [RFI], expectation maximization imputation [EMI], -nearest neighbor imputation [kNNI], singular value decomposition imputation [SVDI], and the mean imputation [MNI]; (ii three statistical models (ridge-regression best linear unbiased predictor [RR-BLUP], least absolute shrinkage and operator selector [LASSO], and elastic net; (iii marker density ( = 500, 1500, 3000, and 4500 SNPs; (iv training population (TP size ( = 96, 144, 192, and 218; (v marker-based and pedigree-based relationship matrices; and (vi control for relatedness in TPs and validation populations (VPs. No discernable differences in prediction accuracy were observed among imputation methods. The RR-BLUP outperformed other models in nearly all scenarios. Accuracies decreased substantially when marker number decreased to 3000 or 1500 SNPs, depending on the trait; when sample size of the training set was less than 192; when using pedigree-based instead of marker-based matrix; or when no control for relatedness was implemented. Overall, moderate to high prediction accuracies were observed in this study, suggesting that GS is a very promising breeding strategy for FHB resistance in wheat.

The role of microstructure and phase distribution in the failure mechanisms and life prediction model for PSZ coatings

Science.gov (United States)

Sisson, R. D., Jr.; Sone, Ichiro; Biederman, R. R.

1985-01-01

Partially Stabilized Zirconia (PSZ) may become widely used for Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC). Failure of these coatings can occur due to thermal fatigue in oxidizing atmospheres. The failure is due to the strains that develop due to thermal gradients, differences in thermal expansion coefficients, and oxidation of the bond coating. The role of microstructure and the cubic, tetragonal, and monoclinic phase distribution in the strain development and subsequent failure will be discussed. An X-ray diffraction technique for accurate determination of the fraction of each phase in PSZ will be applied to understanding the phase transformations and strain development. These results will be discussed in terms of developing a model for life prediction in PSZ coatings during thermal cycling.

miRNA signatures can predict acute liver failure in hepatitis E infected pregnant females

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nirupma Trehanpati

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Acute viral hepatitis E (AVH-E can often result in acute liver failure (ALF during pregnancy. microRNAs serve as mediators in drug induced liver failure. We investigated their role as a biomarker in predicting ALF due to HEV (ALF-E. Methods: We performed next generation sequencing and subsequent validation studies in PBMCs of pregnant (P self limiting AVH-E, ALF due to HEV (ALF-E and compared with AVH-E in non-pregnant (NP females and healthy controls. Findings: Eleven microRNAs were significantly expressed in response to HEV infection; importantly, miR- 431, 654, 1468 and 4435, were distinctly expressed in pregnant self-limiting AVH-E and healthy females (p = 0.0005, but not in ALF-E. Sixteen exclusive microRNAs differentiated ALF-E from self limiting AVH-E in pregnant females. miR-450b which affects cellular proliferation and metabolic processes through RNF20 and SECB was predominanlty upregulated and correlated with poor outcome (ROC 0.958, p = 0.001. Interpretation: Our results reveal that a specific microRNA profile can predict fatality in ALF-E in pregnancy. These microRNAs could be exploited as prognostic biomarkers and help in the development of new therapeutic interventions. Keywords: Health sciences, Virology

A failure-type specific risk prediction tool for selection of head-and-neck cancer patients for experimental treatments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Håkansson, Katrin; Rasmussen, Jacob H.; Rasmussen, Gregers B.

2017-01-01

: Retrospective data for 560HNSCC patients were used to generate a multi-endpoint model, combining three cause-specific Cox models (LRF, DM and death with no evidence of disease (death NED)). The model was used to generate risk profiles of patients eligible for/included in a de-intensification study (RTOG 1016...... variables (tumor subsite, T stage, N stage, smoking status, age and performance status) and one additional variable (tumor volume). The treatment failure discrimination ability of the developed model was superior of that of UICC staging, 8(th) edition (AUCLRF=72.7% vs 64.2%, p....8%, pde-intensification study had>20% risk of tumor relapse. Conversely, 9 of the 15 dose escalation trial participants had LRF risks

Success/Failure Prediction of Noninvasive Mechanical Ventilation in Intensive Care Units. Using Multiclassifiers and Feature Selection Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Martín-González, Félix; González-Robledo, Javier; Sánchez-Hernández, Fernando; Moreno-García, María N

2016-05-17

This paper addresses the problem of decision-making in relation to the administration of noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) in intensive care units. Data mining methods were employed to find out the factors influencing the success/failure of NIMV and to predict its results in future patients. These artificial intelligence-based methods have not been applied in this field in spite of the good results obtained in other medical areas. Feature selection methods provided the most influential variables in the success/failure of NIMV, such as NIMV hours, PaCO2 at the start, PaO2 / FiO2 ratio at the start, hematocrit at the start or PaO2 / FiO2 ratio after two hours. These methods were also used in the preprocessing step with the aim of improving the results of the classifiers. The algorithms provided the best results when the dataset used as input was the one containing the attributes selected with the CFS method. Data mining methods can be successfully applied to determine the most influential factors in the success/failure of NIMV and also to predict NIMV results in future patients. The results provided by classifiers can be improved by preprocessing the data with feature selection techniques.

Can baseline ultrasound results help to predict failure to achieve DAS28 remission after 1 year of tight control treatment in early RA patients?

Science.gov (United States)

Ten Cate, D F; Jacobs, J W G; Swen, W A A; Hazes, J M W; de Jager, M H; Basoski, N M; Haagsma, C J; Luime, J J; Gerards, A H

2018-01-30

At present, there are no prognostic parameters unequivocally predicting treatment failure in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. We investigated whether baseline ultrasonography (US) findings of joints, when added to baseline clinical, laboratory, and radiographical data, could improve prediction of failure to achieve Disease Activity Score assessing 28 joints (DAS28) remission (baseline. Clinical, laboratory, and radiographical parameters were recorded. Primary analysis was the prediction by logistic regression of the absence of DAS28 remission 12 months after diagnosis and start of therapy. Of 194 patients included, 174 were used for the analysis, with complete data available for 159. In a multivariate model with baseline DAS28 (odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.2), the presence of rheumatoid factor (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.1), and type of monitoring strategy (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05-0.85), the addition of baseline US results for joints (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.89-1.04) did not significantly improve the prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission (likelihood ratio test, 1.04; p = 0.31). In an early RA population, adding baseline ultrasonography of the hands, wrists, and feet to commonly available baseline characteristics did not improve prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission at 12 months. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01752309 . Registered on 19 December 2012.

The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion. Supplement 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilch, M.M.; Allen, M.D.; Stamps, D.W.; Tadios, E.L.; Knudson, D.L.

1994-12-01

Supplement 1 of NUREG/CR-6075 brings to closure the DCH issue for the Zion plant. It includes the documentation of the peer review process for NUREG/CR-6075, the assessments of four new splinter scenarios defined in working group meetings, and modeling enhancements recommended by the working groups. In the four new scenarios, consistency of the initial conditions has been implemented by using insights from systems-level codes. SCDAP/RELAP5 was used to analyze three short-term station blackout cases with Different lead rates. In all three case, the hot leg or surge line failed well before the lower head and thus the primary system depressurized to a point where DCH was no longer considered a threat. However, these calculations were continued to lower head failure in order to gain insights that were useful in establishing the initial and boundary conditions. The most useful insights are that the RCS pressure is-low at vessel breach metallic blockages in the core region do not melt and relocate into the lower plenum, and melting of upper plenum steel is correlated with hot leg failure. THE SCDAP/RELAP output was used as input to CONTAIN to assess the containment conditions at vessel breach. The containment-side conditions predicted by CONTAIN are similar to those originally specified in NUREG/CR-6075

Stress corrosion cracking lifetime prediction of spring screw

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, S. K.; Ryu, C. H.

2004-01-01

A lifetime prediction of holddown spring screw in nuclear fuel assembly was performed using fracture mechanics approach. The spring screw was designed such that it was capable of sustaining the loads imposed by the initial tensile preload and operational loads. In order to investigate the cause of failure and to predict the stress corrosion cracking life of the screw, a stress analysis of the top nozzle spring assembly was done using finite element analysis. The elastic-plastic finite element analysis showed that the local stresses at the critical regions of head-shank fillet and thread root significantly exceeded than the yield strength of the screw material, resulting in local plastic deformation. Normalized stress intensity factors for PWSCC life prediction was proposed. Primary water stress corrosion cracking life of the Inconel 600 screw was predicted by using integration of the Scott model and resulted in 1.78 years, which was fairly close to the actual service life of the holddown spring screw

Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

2009-10-01

The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

Predicting success of high-flow nasal cannula in pneumonia patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure: The utility of the ROX index.

Science.gov (United States)

Roca, Oriol; Messika, Jonathan; Caralt, Berta; García-de-Acilu, Marina; Sztrymf, Benjamin; Ricard, Jean-Damien; Masclans, Joan R

2016-10-01

The purpose of the study is to describe early predictors and to develop a prediction tool that accurately identifies the need for mechanical ventilation (MV) in pneumonia patients with hypoxemic acute respiratory failure (ARF) treated with high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC). This is a 4-year prospective observational 2-center cohort study including patients with severe pneumonia treated with HFNC. High-flow nasal cannula failure was defined as need for MV. ROX index was defined as the ratio of pulse oximetry/fraction of inspired oxygen to respiratory rate. One hundred fifty-seven patients were included, of whom 44 (28.0%) eventually required MV (HFNC failure). After 12 hours of HFNC treatment, the ROX index demonstrated the best prediction accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.74 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.84]; Pfailure in whom therapy can be continued after 12 hours. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Factors Predicting Failure and Success in Hospital Information System Implementations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeke, Frank; Karara, Gustave; Nyssen, Marc

2015-01-01

From 2007 through 2014, the authors participated in the implementation of open source hospital information systems (HIS) in 19 hospitals in Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, and Mali. Most of these implementations were successful, but some failed. At the end of a seven-year implementation effort, a number of risk factors, facilitators, and pragmatic approaches related to the deployment of HIS in Sub-Saharan health facilities have been identified. Many of the problems encountered during the HIS implementation process were not related to technical issues but human, cultural, and environmental factors. This study retrospectively evaluates the predictive value of 14 project failure factors and 15 success factors in HIS implementation in the Sub-Saharan region. Nine of the failure factors were strongly correlated with project failure, three were moderately correlated, and one weakly correlated. Regression analysis also confirms that eight factors were strongly correlated with project success, four moderately correlated, and two weakly correlated. The study results may help estimate the expedience of future HIS projects.

Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations Under Flexure Loads

Science.gov (United States)

Nordendale, Nikolas A.; Goyal, Vinay K.; Lundgren, Eric C.; Patel, Dhruv N.; Farrokh, Babak; Jones, Justin; Fischetti, Grace; Segal, Kenneth N.

2015-01-01

An analysis and a test program was conducted to investigate the damage tolerance of composite sandwich joints. The joints contained a single circular delamination between the face-sheet and the doubler. The coupons were fabricated through out-of-autoclave (OOA) processes, a technology NASA is investigating for joining large composite sections. The four-point bend flexure test was used to induce compression loading into the side of the joint where the delamination was placed. The compression side was chosen since it tends to be one of the most critical loads in launch vehicles. Autoclave cure was used to manufacture the composite sandwich sections, while the doubler was co-bonded onto the sandwich face-sheet using an OOA process after sandwich panels were cured. A building block approach was adopted to characterize the mechanical properties of the joint material, including the fracture toughness between the doubler and face-sheet. Twelve four-point-bend samples were tested, six in the sandwich core ribbon orientation and six in sandwich core cross-ribbon direction. Analysis predicted failure initiation and propagation at the pre-delaminated location, consistent with experimental observations. A building block approach using fracture analyses methods predicted failure loads in close agreement with tests. This investigation demonstrated a small strength reduction due to a flaw of significant size compared to the width of the sample. Therefore, concerns of bonding an OOA material to an in-autoclave material was mitigated for the geometries, materials, and load configurations considered.

Pretreatment Quality of Life Predicts for Locoregional Control in Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqui, Farzan; Pajak, Thomas F.; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah; Konski, Andre A.; Coyne, James C.; Gwede, Clement K.; Garden, Adam S.; Spencer, Sharon A.; Jones, Christopher; Movsas, Benjamin

2008-01-01

Purpose: To analyze the prospectively collected health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) data from patients enrolled in two Radiation Therapy Oncology Group randomized Phase III head and neck cancer trials (90-03 and 91-11) to assess their value as an independent prognostic factor for locoregional control (LRC) and/or overall survival (OS). Methods and Materials: HRQOL questionnaires, using a validated instrument, the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Head and Neck (FACT-H and N), version 2, were completed by patients before the start of treatment. OS and LRC were the outcome measures analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Results: Baseline FACT-H and N data were available for 1,093 patients and missing for 417 patients. No significant difference in outcome was found between the patients with and without baseline FACT-H and N data (p = 0.58). The median follow-up time was 27.2 months for all patients and 49 months for surviving patients. Multivariate analyses were performed for both OS and LRC. Beyond tumor and nodal stage, Karnofsky performance status, primary site, cigarette use, use of concurrent chemotherapy, and altered fractionation schedules, the FACT-H and N score was independently predictive of LRC (but not OS), with p = 0.0038. The functional well-being component of the FACT-H and N predicted most significantly for LRC (p = 0.0004). Conclusions: This study represents, to our knowledge, the largest analysis of HRQOL as a prognostic factor in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients. The results of this study have demonstrated the importance of baseline HRQOL as a significant and independent predictor of LRC in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer

How to Predict Oral Rehydration Failure in Children With Gastroenteritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Geurts, Dorien; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moll, Henriëtte; Oostenbrink, Rianne

2017-11-01

Oral rehydration is the standard in most current guidelines for young children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE). Failure of oral rehydration can complicate the disease course, leading to morbidity due to severe dehydration. We aimed to identify prognostic factors of oral rehydration failure in children with AGE. A prospective, observational study was performed at the Emergency department, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 2010-2012, including 802 previously healthy children, ages 1 month to 5 years with AGE. Failure of oral rehydration was defined by secondary rehydration by a nasogastric tube, or hospitalization or revisit for dehydration within 72 hours after initial emergency department visit. We observed 167 (21%) failures of oral rehydration in a population of 802 children with AGE (median 1.03 years old, interquartile range 0.4-2.1; 60% boys). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent predictors for failure of oral rehydration were a higher Manchester Triage System urgency level, abnormal capillary refill time, and a higher clinical dehydration scale score. Early recognition of young children with AGE at risk of failure of oral rehydration therapy is important, as emphasized by the 21% therapy failure in our population. Associated with oral rehydration failure are higher Manchester Triage System urgency level, abnormal capillary refill time, and a higher clinical dehydration scale score.

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

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Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo

2017-01-01

Background Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. Methods The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. Results The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. Conclusion The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients. PMID:29020031

Using methods from the data mining and machine learning literature for disease classification and prediction: A case study examining classification of heart failure sub-types

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Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.; Ho, Jennifer E.; Levy, Daniel; Lee, Douglas S.

2014-01-01

Objective Physicians classify patients into those with or without a specific disease. Furthermore, there is often interest in classifying patients according to disease etiology or subtype. Classification trees are frequently used to classify patients according to the presence or absence of a disease. However, classification trees can suffer from limited accuracy. In the data-mining and machine learning literature, alternate classification schemes have been developed. These include bootstrap aggregation (bagging), boosting, random forests, and support vector machines. Study design and Setting We compared the performance of these classification methods with those of conventional classification trees to classify patients with heart failure according to the following sub-types: heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) vs. heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). We also compared the ability of these methods to predict the probability of the presence of HFPEF with that of conventional logistic regression. Results We found that modern, flexible tree-based methods from the data mining literature offer substantial improvement in prediction and classification of heart failure sub-type compared to conventional classification and regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression had superior performance for predicting the probability of the presence of HFPEF compared to the methods proposed in the data mining literature. Conclusion The use of tree-based methods offers superior performance over conventional classification and regression trees for predicting and classifying heart failure subtypes in a population-based sample of patients from Ontario. However, these methods do not offer substantial improvements over logistic regression for predicting the presence of HFPEF. PMID:23384592

Microstructure-based constitutive modeling of TRIP steel: Prediction of ductility and failure modes under different loading conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, K.S.; Liu, W.N.; Sun, X.; Khaleel, M.A.

2009-01-01

We study the ultimate ductility and failure modes of a commercial transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) 800 steel under different loading conditions with an advanced microstructure-based finite-element analysis. The representative volume element (RVE) for the TRIP 800 under examination is developed based on an actual microstructure obtained from scanning electron microscopy. The ductile failure of the TRIP 800 under different loading conditions is predicted in the form of plastic strain localization without any prescribed failure criteria for the individual phases. This indicates that the microstructure-level inhomogeneity of the various constituent phases can be the key factor influencing the final ductility of the TRIP 800 steel under different loading conditions. Comparisons of the computational results with experimental measurements suggest that the microstructure-based modeling approach accurately captures the overall macroscopic behavior of the TRIP 800 steel under different loading and boundary conditions.

Do premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence also predict the failure to recover from alcoholism?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim; Nickel, Elizabeth J

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE: In a search for viable endophenotypes of alcoholism, this longitudinal study attempted to identify premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence that also predicted the course of alcoholism. METHOD: The 202 male subjects who completed a 40-year follow-up were originally selected from...... diagnoses of alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence that were characterized as currently active or currently in remission according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised, course specifiers. RESULTS: The majority of subjects with a diagnosis of alcohol abuse were......: cognitive efficiency and early behavioral dyscontrol in childhood. Both factors predicted the failure to remit (low cognitive efficiency and high behavioral dyscontrol) even when lifetime alcoholism severity was controlled. CONCLUSIONS: This 4-decade study found a striking disconnect between measures...

Shell feature: a new radiomics descriptor for predicting distant failure after radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer and cervix cancer

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Hao, Hongxia; Zhou, Zhiguo; Li, Shulong; Maquilan, Genevieve; Folkert, Michael R.; Iyengar, Puneeth; Westover, Kenneth D.; Albuquerque, Kevin; Liu, Fang; Choy, Hak; Timmerman, Robert; Yang, Lin; Wang, Jing

2018-05-01

Distant failure is the main cause of human cancer-related mortalities. To develop a model for predicting distant failure in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and cervix cancer (CC) patients, a shell feature, consisting of outer voxels around the tumor boundary, was constructed using pre-treatment positron emission tomography (PET) images from 48 NSCLC patients received stereotactic body radiation therapy and 52 CC patients underwent external beam radiation therapy and concurrent chemotherapy followed with high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy. The hypothesis behind this feature is that non-invasive and invasive tumors may have different morphologic patterns in the tumor periphery, in turn reflecting the differences in radiological presentations in the PET images. The utility of the shell was evaluated by the support vector machine classifier in comparison with intensity, geometry, gray level co-occurrence matrix-based texture, neighborhood gray tone difference matrix-based texture, and a combination of these four features. The results were assessed in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. Collectively, the shell feature showed better predictive performance than all the other features for distant failure prediction in both NSCLC and CC cohorts.

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

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Anggraeni, Novia Antika

2015-04-01

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano's inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 - 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between -2.86 up to 5.49 days.

The Reliability of Pectorals Major Myocutaneous Flap in Head and Neck Reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Marakby, H.H.

2006-01-01

carried out as primary reconstructive procedures. whereas 4 flaps were salvage procedures (reconstruction after fistula, free flap failure, coverage of exposed mandibular prosthesis). Fifteen patients (60%) had complications such as wound dehiscence, infection, hematoma. seroma, partial flap failure, total flap failure, fistula. and donor site complications. A higher complication rates were associated with the utilization of the flap as a salvage procedure, number of co morbidities, and in oral cavity reconstructions. Conclusion: Although the PMMPF is a versatile flap in head and neck reconstruction, being in the proximity of the region with good reach to different areas of the face, oral cavity, and the pharynx; the flap is fraught with a high complication rate. The wide use and the reliability of free flaps in head and neck reconstruction have superseded the use of the PMMPF flap in comparable circumstances. However, the flap still has a place in head and neck reconstruction, particularly after resection of locally advanced tumours. Also the flap can be still used as a salvage procedure after free flaps failure or when there is a shortage of the microsurgery facility

Brachytherapy in the treatment of head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Seong Yul

1999-01-01

Brachytherapy has been proved to be an effective method for the purpose of increasing radiation dose to the tumor and reducing the dose to the surrounding normal tissue. In head and neck cancer, the rationale of brachytherapy is as follows; Firstly, early small lesion is radiocurative and the major cause of failure is local recurrence. Secondly, it can diminish evidently the dose to the normal tissue especially masseteric muscle and salivary gland. Thirdly, the anatomy of head and neck is suitable to various technique of brachytherapy. On background of accumulated experience of LDR iridium brachytherapy of head and neck cancer for the last 15 years, the author reviewed the history of radioisotope therapy, the characteristics of radionuclides, and some important things in the method, clinical technique and treatment planning. The author analyzed the clinical result of 185 cases of head and neck cancer treated in the Korea Cancer Center Hospital. Finally the future prospect of brachytherapy of head and neck cancer is discussed

Prediction of potential failures in hydraulic gear pumps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Lisowski

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Hydraulic gear pumps are used in many machines and devices. In hydraulic systems of machines gear pumps are main component ofsupply unit or perform auxiliary function. Gear pumps opposite to vane pumps are less complicated. They consists of such components as:housing, gear wheels, bearings, shaft, seal for rotation motion which are not very sensitive for damage and that is why they are using veryoften. However, gear pumps are break down from time to time. Usually damage of pump cause shutting down of machines and devices.One of the way for identifying potential failures and foreseeing their effects is a quality method. On the basis of these methods apreventing action might be undertaken before failure appear. In this paper potential failures and damages of a gear pump were presented bythe usage of matrix FMEA analysis.

Anthropometric indices of failure to thrive

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Raynor, P.; Rudolf, M.

2000-01-01

AIMS—To compare five anthropometric methods of classifying failure to thrive in order to ascertain their relative merits in predicting developmental, dietary, and eating problems.
METHODS—The five anthropometric methods were compared in 83 children with failure to thrive.
RESULTS—The methods were inconsistent in classification of severity, and no one method was superior in predicting problems.
CONCLUSIONS—Weight alone, being the simplest, is still the most reasonable marker for failure to thrive and associated problems.

 PMID:10799424

Utility of the Instability Severity Index Score in Predicting Failure After Arthroscopic Anterior Stabilization of the Shoulder.

Science.gov (United States)

Phadnis, Joideep; Arnold, Christine; Elmorsy, Ahmed; Flannery, Mark

2015-08-01

The redislocation rate after arthroscopic stabilization for anterior glenohumeral instability is up to 30%. The Instability Severity Index Score (ISIS) was developed to preoperatively rationalize the risk of failure, but it has not yet been validated by an independent group. To assess the utility of the ISIS in predicting failure of arthroscopic anterior shoulder stabilization and to identify other preoperative factors for failure. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A case-control study was performed on 141 consecutive patients, comparing those who suffered failure of arthroscopic stabilization with those who had successful arthroscopic stabilization. The mean follow-up time was 47 months (range, 24-132 months). The ISIS was applied retrospectively, and an analysis was performed to establish independent risk factors for failure. A receiver operator coefficient curve was constructed to set a threshold ISIS for considering alternative surgery. Of 141 patients, 19 (13.5%) suffered recurrent instability. The mean ISIS of the failed stabilization group was higher than that of the successful stabilization group (5.1 vs 1.7; P surgery (P < .001), age at first dislocation (P = .01), competitive-level participation in sports (P < .001), and participation in contact or overhead sports (P = .03). The presence of glenoid bone loss carried the highest risk of failure (70%). There was a 70% risk of failure if the ISIS was ≥4, as opposed to a 4% risk of failure if the ISIS was <4. This is the first completely independent study to confirm that the ISIS is a useful preoperative tool. It is recommended that surgeons consider alternative forms of stabilization if the ISIS is ≥4. © 2015 The Author(s).

Pull-out strength of a headed stud in cracked concrete

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takiguchi, K.; Hotta, H.

1995-01-01

Pull-out strength of a headed stud due to cone failure of concrete with/without cracks were examined. This paper presents empirical data basis to decide the criteria for designing a headed stud embedded in a shear wall under earthquake. As a result, it is known that cracks running through the stud reduce the pull-out strength, but it almost recovers when the cracks are closed again by an external compressive load. (author). 2 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

Dkk1 and noggin cooperate in mammalian head induction

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del Barco Barrantes, Ivan; Davidson, Gary; Gröne, Hermann-Josef; Westphal, Heiner; Niehrs, Christof

2003-01-01

Growth factor antagonists play important roles in mediating the inductive effects of the Spemann organizer in amphibian embryos and its equivalents in other vertebrates. Dual inhibition of Wnt and BMP signals has been proposed to confer head organizer activity. We tested the requirement of this coinhibition in Xenopus and mice. In Xenopus, simultaneous reduction of the BMP antagonists chordin and noggin, and the Wnt antagonist dickkopf1 (dkk1) leads to anterior truncations. In mice, compound mutants for dkk1 and noggin display severe head defects, with deletion of all head structures anterior to the mid-hindbrain boundary. These defects arise as a result of a failure in anterior specification at the gastrula stage. The results provide genetic evidence for the dual inhibition model and indicate that dkk1 and noggin functionally cooperate in the head organizer. PMID:12952897

Feasibility of Primary Tumor Culture Models and Preclinical Prediction Assays for Head and Neck Cancer: A Narrative Review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dohmen, Amy J. C.; Swartz, Justin E.; Van Den Brekel, Michiel W. M.; Willems, Stefan M.; Spijker, René; Neefjes, Jacques; Zuur, Charlotte L.

2015-01-01

Primary human tumor culture models allow for individualized drug sensitivity testing and are therefore a promising technique to achieve personalized treatment for cancer patients. This would especially be of interest for patients with advanced stage head and neck cancer. They are extensively treated with surgery, usually in combination with high-dose cisplatin chemoradiation. However, adding cisplatin to radiotherapy is associated with an increase in severe acute toxicity, while conferring only a minor overall survival benefit. Hence, there is a strong need for a preclinical model to identify patients that will respond to the intended treatment regimen and to test novel drugs. One of such models is the technique of culturing primary human tumor tissue. This review discusses the feasibility and success rate of existing primary head and neck tumor culturing techniques and their corresponding chemo- and radiosensitivity assays. A comprehensive literature search was performed and success factors for culturing in vitro are debated, together with the actual value of these models as preclinical prediction assay for individual patients. With this review, we aim to fill a gap in the understanding of primary culture models from head and neck tumors, with potential importance for other tumor types as well

Feasibility of Primary Tumor Culture Models and Preclinical Prediction Assays for Head and Neck Cancer: A Narrative Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dohmen, Amy J. C., E-mail: a.dohmen@nki.nl [Department of Head and Neck Surgery and Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands); Department of Cell Biology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands); Swartz, Justin E. [Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht 3508 GA (Netherlands); Van Den Brekel, Michiel W. M. [Department of Head and Neck Surgery and Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands); Willems, Stefan M. [Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht 3508 GA (Netherlands); Spijker, René [Medical library, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam 1100 DE (Netherlands); Dutch Cochrane Centre, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht 3508 GA (Netherlands); Neefjes, Jacques [Department of Cell Biology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands); Zuur, Charlotte L. [Department of Head and Neck Surgery and Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands)

2015-08-28

Primary human tumor culture models allow for individualized drug sensitivity testing and are therefore a promising technique to achieve personalized treatment for cancer patients. This would especially be of interest for patients with advanced stage head and neck cancer. They are extensively treated with surgery, usually in combination with high-dose cisplatin chemoradiation. However, adding cisplatin to radiotherapy is associated with an increase in severe acute toxicity, while conferring only a minor overall survival benefit. Hence, there is a strong need for a preclinical model to identify patients that will respond to the intended treatment regimen and to test novel drugs. One of such models is the technique of culturing primary human tumor tissue. This review discusses the feasibility and success rate of existing primary head and neck tumor culturing techniques and their corresponding chemo- and radiosensitivity assays. A comprehensive literature search was performed and success factors for culturing in vitro are debated, together with the actual value of these models as preclinical prediction assay for individual patients. With this review, we aim to fill a gap in the understanding of primary culture models from head and neck tumors, with potential importance for other tumor types as well.

Multi-Marker Strategy in Heart Failure: Combination of ST2 and CRP Predicts Poor Outcome.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Marie Dupuy

Full Text Available Natriuretic peptides (BNP and NT-proBNP are recognized as gold-standard predictive markers in Heart Failure (HF. However, currently ST2 (member of the interleukin 1 receptor family has emerged as marker of inflammation, fibrosis and cardiac stress. We evaluated ST2 and CRP as prognostic markers in 178 patients with chronic heart failure in comparison with other classical markers such as clinical established parameters but also biological markers: NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT alone or in combination. In multivariate analysis, subsequent addition of ST2 led to age, CRP and ST2 as the only remaining predictors of all-cause mortality (HR 1.03, HR 1.61 and HR 2.75, respectively as well as of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.00, HR 2.27 and HR 3.78, respectively. The combined increase of ST2 and CRP was significant for predicting worsened outcomes leading to identify a high risk subgroup that individual assessment of either marker. The same analysis was performed with ST2 in combination with Barcelona score. Overall, our findings extend previous data demonstrating that ST2 in combination with CRP as a valuable tool for identifying patients at risk of death.

Predictive value of daily living score in acute respiratory failure of COPD patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation pilot study

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Langlet Ketty

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mechanical ventilation (MV is imperative in many forms of acute respiratory failure (ARF in COPD patients. Previous studies have shown the difficulty to identify parameters predicting the outcome of COPD patients treated by invasive MV. Our hypothesis was that a non specialized score as the activities daily living (ADL score may help to predict the outcome of these patients. Methods We studied the outcome of 25 COPD patients admitted to the intensive care unit for ARF requiring invasive MV. The patients were divided into those weaning success (group A n = 17, 68% or failure (group B n = 8, 32%. We investigated the correlation between the ADL score and the outcome and mortality. Results The ADL score was higher in group A (5.1 ±1.1 vs 3.7 ± 0.7 in group B, p  Conclusion Our pilot study demonstrates that the ADL score is predictive of weaning success and mortality at 6 months, suggesting that the assessment of daily activities should be an important component of ARF management in COPD patients.

Long-term success and failure with SG is predictable by 3 months: a multivariate model using simple office markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Cottam, Austin; Billing, Josiah; Cottam, Daniel; Billing, Peter; Cottam, Samuel; Zaveri, Hinali; Surve, Amit

2017-08-01

Despite being the most common surgery in the United States, little is known about predicting weight loss success and failure with sleeve gastrectomy (SG). Papers that have been published are inconclusive. We decided to use multivariate analysis from 2 practices to design a model to predict weight loss outcomes using data widely available to any surgical practice at 3 months to determine weight loss outcomes at 1 year. Two private practices in the United States. A retrospective review of 613 patients from 2 bariatric institutions were included in this study. Co-morbidities and other preoperative characteristics were gathered, and %EWL was calculated for 1, 3, and 12 months. Excess weight loss (%EWL)failure. Multiple variate analysis was used to find factors that affect %EWL at 12 months. Preoperative sleep apnea, preoperative diabetes, %EWL at 1 month, and %EWL at 3 months all affect %EWL at 1 year. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of our model was 72% and 91%, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 91%, respectively. One-year results of the SG can be predicted by diabetes, sleep apnea, and weight loss velocity at 3 months postoperatively. This can help surgeons direct surgical or medical interventions for patients at 3 months rather than at 1 year or beyond. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis on Sealing Reliability of Bolted Joint Ball Head Component of Satellite Propulsion System

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Tao; Fan, Yougao; Gao, Feng; Gu, Shixin; Wang, Wei

2018-01-01

Propulsion system is one of the important subsystems of satellite, and its performance directly affects the service life, attitude control and reliability of the satellite. The Paper analyzes the sealing principle of bolted joint ball head component of satellite propulsion system and discuss from the compatibility of hydrazine anhydrous and bolted joint ball head component, influence of ground environment on the sealing performance of bolted joint ball heads, and material failure caused by environment, showing that the sealing reliability of bolted joint ball head component is good and the influence of above three aspects on sealing of bolted joint ball head component can be ignored.

Prediction of Basic Math Course Failure Rate in the Physics, Meteorology, Mathematics, Actuarial Sciences and Pharmacy Degree Programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Rojas-Torres

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper summarizes a study conducted in 2013 with the purpose of predicting the failure rate of math courses taken by Pharmacy, Mathematics, Actuarial Science, Physics and Meteorology students at Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR. Using the Logistics Regression statistical techniques applied to the 2010 cohort, failure rates were predicted of students in the aforementioned programs in one of their Math introductory courses (Calculus 101 for Physics and Meteorology, Math Principles for Mathematics and Actuarial Science and Applied Differential Equations for Pharmacy. For these models, the UCR admission average, the student’s genre, and the average correct answers in the Quantitative Skills Test were used as predictor variables. The most important variable for all models was the Quantitative Skills Test, and the model with the highest correct classification rate was the Logistics Regression. For the estimated Physics-Meteorology, Pharmacy and Mathematics-Actuarial Science models, correct classifications were 89.8%, 73.6%, and 93.9%, respectively.

The failure of earthquake failure models

Science.gov (United States)

Gomberg, J.

2001-01-01

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Neurohumoral prediction of left-ventricular morphologic response to beta-blockade with metoprolol in chronic left-ventricular systolic heart failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groenning, Bjoern A; Nilsson, Jens C; Hildebrandt, Per R

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: In order to tailor therapy in heart failure, a solution might be to develop sensitive and reliable markers that can predict response in individual patients or monitor effectiveness of therapy. AIMS: To evaluate neurohumoral factors as markers for left-ventricular (LV) antiremodelling...... from metoprolol treatment in patients with chronic LV systolic heart failure. METHODS: Forty-one subjects randomised to placebo or metoprolol were studied with magnetic resonance imaging and blood samples to measure LV dimensions and ejection fraction, epinephrine, norepinephrine, plasma renin activity......-treatment plasma level of ANP may be a predictor of LV antiremodelling from treatment with metoprolol in patients with chronic heart failure. However, the potential for individual neurohumoral monitoring of the effects on LV dimensions during beta-blockade appears limited....

Postoperative Prostate-Specific Antigen Velocity Independently Predicts for Failure of Salvage Radiotherapy After Prostatectomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, Christopher R.; Presti, Joseph C.; Brooks, James D.; Gill, Harcharan; Spiotto, Michael T.

2008-01-01

Purpose: Identification of patients most likely to benefit from salvage radiotherapy (RT) using postoperative (postop) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics. Methods and Materials: From 1984 to 2004, 81 patients who fit the following criteria formed the study population: undetectable PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP); pathologically negative nodes; biochemical relapse defined as a persistently detectable PSA; salvage RT; and two or more postop PSAs available before salvage RT. Salvage RT included the whole pelvic nodes in 55 patients and 4 months of total androgen suppression in 56 patients. The median follow-up was >5 years. All relapses were defined as a persistently detectable PSA. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards multivariable analysis were performed for all clinical, pathological, and treatment factors predicting for biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS). Results: There were 37 biochemical relapses observed after salvage RT. The 5-year bRFS after salvage RT for patients with postop prostate-specific antigen velocity ≤1 vs. >1 ng/ml/yr was 59% vs. 29%, p = 0.002. In multivariate analysis, only postop PSAV (p = 0.0036), pre-RT PSA level ≤1 (p = 0.037) and interval-to-relapse >10 months (p = 0.012) remained significant, whereas pelvic RT, hormone therapy, and RT dose showed a trend (p = ∼0.06). PSAV, but not prostate-specific antigen doubling time, predicted successful salvage RT, suggesting an association of zero-order kinetics with locally recurrent disease. Conclusions: Postoperative PSA velocity independently predicts for the failure of salvage RT and can be considered in addition to high-risk features when selecting patients in need of systemic therapy following biochemical failure after RP. For well-selected patients, salvage RT can achieve high cure rates

Multimarker Strategy for Heart Failure Prognostication. Value of Neurohormonal Biomarkers: Neprilysin vs NT-proBNP.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Barallat, Jaume; Galán, Amparo; de Antonio, Marta; Domingo, Mar; Zamora, Elisabet; Gastelurrutia, Paloma; Vila, Joan; Peñafiel, Judith; Gálvez-Montón, Carolina; Lupón, Josep

2015-12-01

Neprilysin breaks down numerous vasoactive peptides. The soluble form of neprilysin, which was recently identified in heart failure, is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Within a multibiomarker strategy, we directly compared soluble neprilysin and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide as risk stratifiers in a real-life cohort of heart failure patients. Soluble neprilysin, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, ST2, and high-sensitivity troponin T levels were measured in 797 consecutive ambulatory heart failure patients followed up for 4.7 years. Comprehensive multivariable analyses and soluble neprilysin vs N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide head-to-head assessments of performance were performed. A primary composite endpoint included cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization. A secondary endpoint explored cardiovascular death alone. Median soluble neprilysin and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide concentrations were 0.64ng/mL and 1187 ng/L, respectively. Both biomarkers significantly correlated with age (P<.001) and ST2 (P<.001), but only N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide significantly correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (P<.001), body mass index (P<.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (P=.02) and high-sensitivity troponin T (P<.001). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, soluble neprilysin remained independently associated with the composite endpoint (hazard ratio=1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.27; P=.03) and cardiovascular death (hazard ratio=1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.31; P=.04), but N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide did not. The head-to-head soluble neprilysin vs N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide comparison showed good calibration and similar discrimination and reclassification for both neurohormonal biomarkers, but only soluble neprilysin improved overall goodness-of-fit. When added to a multimarker strategy, soluble neprilysin remained an independent

Influence of thermal buoyancy on vertical tube bundle thermal density head predictions under transient conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, H.C.; Kasza, K.E.

1984-01-01

The thermal-hydraulic behavior of an LMFBR system under various types of plant transients is usually studied using one-dimensional (1-D) flow and energy transport models of the system components. Many of the transient events involve the change from a high to a low flow with an accompanying change in temperature of the fluid passing through the components which can be conductive to significant thermal bouyancy forces. Thermal bouyancy can exert its influence on system dynamic energy transport predictions through alterations of flow and thermal distributions which in turn can influence decay heat removal, system-response time constants, heat transport between primary and secondary systems, and thermal energy rejection at the reactor heat sink, i.e., the steam generator. In this paper the results from a comparison of a 1-D model prediction and experimental data for vertical tube bundle overall thermal density head and outlet temperature under transient conditions causing varying degrees of thermal bouyancy are presented. These comparisons are being used to generate insight into how, when, and to what degree thermal buoyancy can cause departures from 1-D model predictions

Type-D personality but not depression predicts severity of anxiety in heart failure patients at 1-year follow-up

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiffer, Angélique A; Pedersen, Susanne S.; Broers, Herman

2008-01-01

Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a debilitating condition associated with poor outcome, including increased anxiety. However, anxiety and its determinants have not yet been studied systematically in CHF. We examined whether type-D personality and depressive symptoms would predict clinically signifi...

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika

2015-01-01

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika, E-mail: novia.antika.a@gmail.com [Geophysics Sub-department, Physics Department, Faculty of Mathematic and Natural Science, Universitas Gadjah Mada. BLS 21 Yogyakarta 55281 (Indonesia)

2015-04-24

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

Chaos emerging in soil failure patterns observed during tillage: Normalized deterministic nonlinear prediction (NDNP) and its application.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakai, Kenshi; Upadhyaya, Shrinivasa K; Andrade-Sanchez, Pedro; Sviridova, Nina V

2017-03-01

Real-world processes are often combinations of deterministic and stochastic processes. Soil failure observed during farm tillage is one example of this phenomenon. In this paper, we investigated the nonlinear features of soil failure patterns in a farm tillage process. We demonstrate emerging determinism in soil failure patterns from stochastic processes under specific soil conditions. We normalized the deterministic nonlinear prediction considering autocorrelation and propose it as a robust way of extracting a nonlinear dynamical system from noise contaminated motion. Soil is a typical granular material. The results obtained here are expected to be applicable to granular materials in general. From a global scale to nano scale, the granular material is featured in seismology, geotechnology, soil mechanics, and particle technology. The results and discussions presented here are applicable in these wide research areas. The proposed method and our findings are useful with respect to the application of nonlinear dynamics to investigate complex motions generated from granular materials.

Theory of Mind Predicts Emotion Knowledge Development in Head Start Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Seidenfeld, Adina M; Johnson, Stacy R; Cavadel, Elizabeth Woodburn; Izard, Carroll E

2014-10-01

Emotion knowledge (EK) enables children to identify emotions in themselves and others and its development facilitates emotion recognition in complex social situations. Social-cognitive processes, such as theory of mind (ToM), may contribute to developing EK by helping children realize the inherent variability associated with emotion expression across individuals and situations. The present study explored how ToM, particularly false belief understanding, in preschool predicts children's developing EK in kindergarten. Participants were 60 3- to 5-year-old Head Start children. ToM and EK measures were obtained from standardized child tasks. ToM scores were positively related to performance on an EK task in kindergarten after controlling for preschool levels of EK and verbal ability. Exploratory analyses provided preliminary evidence that ToM serves as an indirect effect between verbal ability and EK. Early intervention programs may benefit from including lessons on ToM to help promote socio-emotional learning, specifically EK. This consideration may be the most fruitful when the targeted population is at-risk.

Prediction of Cascading Collapse Occurrence due to the Effect of Hidden Failure of a Protection System using Artificial Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nor Hazwani Idris

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Transmission line act as a medium of transportation for electrical energy from a power station to the consumer. There are many factors that could cause the cascading collapse such as instability of voltage and frequency, the change of environment and weather, the software and operator error and also the failure in protection system. Protection system plays an important function in maintaining the stability and reliability of the power grid. Hidden failures in relay protection systems are the primary factors for triggering the cascading collapse. This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network (ANN model for prediction of cascading collapse occurrence due to the effect of hidden failure of protection system. The ANN model has been developed through the normalized training and testing data process with optimum number of hidden layer, the momentum rate and the learning rate. The ANN model employs probability of hidden failure, random number of line limit power flow and exposed line as its input while trip index of cascading collapse occurrence as its output. IEEE 14 bus system is used in this study to illustrate the proposed approach. The performance of the results is analysed in terms of its Mean Square Error (MSE and Correlation Coefficient (R. The results show the ANN model produce reliable prediction of cascading collapse occurrence.

Optimization of Artificial Neural Network using Evolutionary Programming for Prediction of Cascading Collapse Occurrence due to the Hidden Failure Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Idris, N. H.; Salim, N. A.; Othman, M. M.; Yasin, Z. M.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the Evolutionary Programming (EP) which proposed to optimize the training parameters for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in predicting cascading collapse occurrence due to the effect of protection system hidden failure. The data has been collected from the probability of hidden failure model simulation from the historical data. The training parameters of multilayer-feedforward with backpropagation has been optimized with objective function to minimize the Mean Square Error (MSE). The optimal training parameters consists of the momentum rate, learning rate and number of neurons in first hidden layer and second hidden layer is selected in EP-ANN. The IEEE 14 bus system has been tested as a case study to validate the propose technique. The results show the reliable prediction of performance validated through MSE and Correlation Coefficient (R).

Predicting Subsequent Task Performance From Goal Motivation and Goal Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Catherine Healy

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent research has demonstrated that the cognitive processes associated with goal pursuit can continue to interfere with unrelated tasks when a goal is unfulfilled. Drawing from the self-regulation and goal-striving literatures, the present study explored the impact of goal failure on subsequent cognitive and physical task performance. Furthermore, we examined if the autonomous or controlled motivation underpinning goal striving moderates the responses to goal failure. Athletes (75 male, 59 female, Mage = 19.90 years, SDage = 3.50 completed a cycling trial with the goal of covering a given distance in 8 minutes. Prior to the trial, their motivation was primed using a video. During the trial they were provided with manipulated performance feedback, thus creating conditions of goal success or failure. No differences emerged in the responses to goal failure between the primed motivation or performance feedback conditions. We make recommendations for future research into how individuals can deal with failure in goal striving.

Multi-sector thermo-physiological head simulator for headgear research

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Natividad; Psikuta, Agnes; Corberán, José Miguel; Rossi, René M.; Annaheim, Simon

2017-02-01

A novel thermo-physiological human head simulator for headgear testing was developed by coupling a thermal head manikin with a thermo-physiological model. As the heat flux at head-site is directly measured by the head manikin, this method provides a realistic quantification of the heat transfer phenomena occurring in the headgear, such as moisture absorption-desorption cycles, condensation, or moisture migration across clothing layers. Before coupling, the opportunities of the head manikin for representing the human physiology were evaluated separately. The evaluation revealed reduced precision in forehead and face temperature predictions under extreme heterogeneous temperature distributions and no initial limitation for simulating temperature changes observed in the human physiology. The thermo-physiological model predicted higher sweat rates when applied for coupled than for pure virtual simulations. After coupling, the thermo-physiological human head simulator was validated using eight human experiments. It precisely predicted core, mean skin, and forehead temperatures with average rmsd values within the average experimental standard deviation (rmsd of 0.20 ± 0.15, 0.83 ± 0.34, and 1.04 ± 0.54 °C, respectively). However, in case of forehead, precision was lower for the exposures including activity than for the sedentary exposures. The representation of the human sweat evaporation could be affected by a reduced evaporation efficiency and the manikin sweat dynamics. The industry will benefit from this thermo-physiological human head simulator leading to the development of helmet designs with enhanced thermal comfort and, therefore, with higher acceptance by users.

Multi-sector thermo-physiological head simulator for headgear research.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Natividad; Psikuta, Agnes; Corberán, José Miguel; Rossi, René M; Annaheim, Simon

2017-02-01

A novel thermo-physiological human head simulator for headgear testing was developed by coupling a thermal head manikin with a thermo-physiological model. As the heat flux at head-site is directly measured by the head manikin, this method provides a realistic quantification of the heat transfer phenomena occurring in the headgear, such as moisture absorption-desorption cycles, condensation, or moisture migration across clothing layers. Before coupling, the opportunities of the head manikin for representing the human physiology were evaluated separately. The evaluation revealed reduced precision in forehead and face temperature predictions under extreme heterogeneous temperature distributions and no initial limitation for simulating temperature changes observed in the human physiology. The thermo-physiological model predicted higher sweat rates when applied for coupled than for pure virtual simulations. After coupling, the thermo-physiological human head simulator was validated using eight human experiments. It precisely predicted core, mean skin, and forehead temperatures with average rmsd values within the average experimental standard deviation (rmsd of 0.20 ± 0.15, 0.83 ± 0.34, and 1.04 ± 0.54 °C, respectively). However, in case of forehead, precision was lower for the exposures including activity than for the sedentary exposures. The representation of the human sweat evaporation could be affected by a reduced evaporation efficiency and the manikin sweat dynamics. The industry will benefit from this thermo-physiological human head simulator leading to the development of helmet designs with enhanced thermal comfort and, therefore, with higher acceptance by users.

A nomogram for predicting distant brain failure in patients treated with gamma knife stereotactic radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy

Science.gov (United States)

Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N.; Peiffer, Ann M.; Lucas, John T.; Isom, Scott; Kuremsky, J. Griff; Urbanic, James J.; Bourland, J. Daniel; Laxton, Adrian W.; Tatter, Stephen B.; Shaw, Edward G.; Chan, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Background We review our single institution experience to determine predictive factors for early and delayed distant brain failure (DBF) after radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases. Materials and methods Between January 2000 and December 2010, a total of 464 patients were treated with Gamma Knife stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without WBRT for primary management of newly diagnosed brain metastases. Histology, systemic disease, RPA class, and number of metastases were evaluated as possible predictors of DBF rate. DBF rates were determined by serial MRI. Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate rate of DBF. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox Proportional Hazard regression. Results Median number of lesions treated was 1 (range 1–13). Median time to DBF was 4.9 months. Twenty-seven percent of patients ultimately required WBRT with median time to WBRT of 5.6 months. Progressive systemic disease (χ2= 16.748, P < .001), number of metastases at SRS (χ2 = 27.216, P < .001), discovery of new metastases at time of SRS (χ2 = 9.197, P < .01), and histology (χ2 = 12.819, P < .07) were factors that predicted for earlier time to distant failure. High risk histologic subtypes (melanoma, her2 negative breast, χ2 = 11.020, P < .001) and low risk subtypes (her2 + breast, χ2 = 11.343, P < .001) were identified. Progressive systemic disease (χ2 = 9.549, P < .01), number of brain metastases (χ2 = 16.953, P < .001), minimum SRS dose (χ2 = 21.609, P < .001), and widespread metastatic disease (χ2 = 29.396, P < .001) were predictive of shorter time to WBRT. Conclusion Systemic disease, number of metastases, and histology are factors that predict distant failure rate after primary radiosurgical management of brain metastases. PMID:24558022

Do plasma concentrations of apelin predict prognosis in patients with advanced heart failure?

Science.gov (United States)

Dalzell, Jonathan R; Jackson, Colette E; Chong, Kwok S; McDonagh, Theresa A; Gardner, Roy S

2014-01-01

Apelin is an endogenous vasodilator and inotrope, plasma concentrations of which are reduced in advanced heart failure (HF). We determined the prognostic significance of plasma concentrations of apelin in advanced HF. Plasma concentrations of apelin were measured in 182 patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The predictive value of apelin for the primary end point of all-cause mortality was assessed over a median follow-up period of 544 (IQR: 196-923) days. In total, 30 patients (17%) reached the primary end point. Of those patients with a plasma apelin concentration above the median, 14 (16%) reached the primary end point compared with 16 (17%) of those with plasma apelin levels below the median (p = NS). NT-proBNP was the most powerful prognostic marker in this population (log rank statistic: 10.37; p = 0.001). Plasma apelin concentrations do not predict medium to long-term prognosis in patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

[11C]Choline PET/CT predicts survival in hormone-naive prostate cancer patients with biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giovacchini, Giampiero; Incerti, Elena; Mapelli, Paola; Gianolli, Luigi; Picchio, Maria; Kirienko, Margarita; Briganti, Alberto; Gandaglia, Giorgio; Montorsi, Francesco

2015-01-01

Over the last decade, PET/CT with radiolabelled choline has been shown to be useful for restaging patients with prostate cancer (PCa) who develop biochemical failure. The limitations of most clinical studies have been poor validation of [ 11 C]choline PET/CT-positive findings and lack of survival analysis. The aim of this study was to assess whether [ 11 C]choline PET/CT can predict survival in hormone-naive PCa patients with biochemical failure. This retrospective study included 302 hormone-naive PCa patients treated with radical prostatectomy who underwent [ 11 C]choline PET/CT from 1 December 2004 to 31 July 2007 because of biochemical failure (prostate-specific antigen, PSA, >0.2 ng/mL). Median PSA was 1.02 ng/mL. PCa-specific survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between clinicopathological variables and PCa-specific survival. The coefficients of the covariates included in the Cox regression analysis were used to develop a novel nomogram. Median follow-up was 7.2 years (1.4 - 18.9 years). [ 11 C]Choline PET/CT was positive in 101 of 302 patients (33 %). Median PCa-specific survival after prostatectomy was 14.9 years (95 % CI 9.7 - 20.1 years) in patients with positive [ 11 C]choline PET/CT. Median survival was not achieved in patients with negative [ 11 C]choline PET/CT. The 15-year PCa-specific survival probability was 42.4 % (95 % CI 31.7 - 53.1 %) in patients with positive [ 11 C]choline PET/CT and 95.5 % (95 % CI 93.5 - 97.5 %) in patients with negative [ 11 C]choline PET/CT. In multivariate analysis, [ 11 C]choline PET/CT (hazard ratio 6.36, 95 % CI 2.14 - 18.94, P < 0.001) and Gleason score >7 (hazard ratio 3.11, 95 % CI 1.11 - 8.66, P = 0.030) predicted PCa-specific survival. An internally validated nomogram predicted 15-year PCa-specific survival probability with an accuracy of 80 %. Positive [ 11 C]choline PET/CT after biochemical failure predicts PCa-specific survival in hormone

Failure analysis of high strength pipeline with single and multiple corrosions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Yanfei; Zhang, Hong; Zhang, Juan; Li, Xin; Zhou, Jing

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We study failure of high strength pipelines with single corrosion. • We give regression equations for failure pressure prediction. • We propose assessment procedure for pipelines with multiple corrosions. - Abstract: Corrosion will compromise safety operation of oil and gas pipelines, accurate determination of failure pressure finds importance in residual strength assessment and corrosion allowance design of onshore and offshore pipelines. This paper investigates failure pressure of high strength pipeline with single and multiple corrosions using nonlinear finite element analysis. On the basis of developed regression equations for failure pressure prediction of high strength pipeline with single corrosion, the paper proposes an assessment procedure for predicting failure pressure of high strength pipeline with multiple corrosions. Furthermore, failure pressures predicted by proposed solutions are compared with experimental results and various assessment methods available in literature, where accuracy and versatility are demonstrated

Ceramic port shields cast in an iron engine head

Science.gov (United States)

Hakim, Nabil S.; Groeneweg, Mark A.

1989-01-01

Silicon nitride exhaust and intake port shields have been successfully cast into a gray iron cylinder head of a heavy duty diesel single cylinder research engine. Careful design considerations, finite element, and probability of survival analyses indicated viability of the design. Foundry experience, NDE, and failure investigations are reported.

A probabilistic approach for RIA fuel failure criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlo Vitanza, Dr.

2008-01-01

Substantial experimental data have been produced in support of the definition of the RIA safety limits for water reactor fuels at high burn up. Based on these data, fuel failure enthalpy limits can be derived based on methods having a varying degree of complexity. However, regardless of sophistication, it is unlikely that any deterministic approach would result in perfect predictions of all failure and non failure data obtained in RIA tests. Accordingly, a probabilistic approach is proposed in this paper, where in addition to a best estimate evaluation of the failure enthalpy, a RIA fuel failure probability distribution is defined within an enthalpy band surrounding the best estimate failure enthalpy. The band width and the failure probability distribution within this band are determined on the basis of the whole data set, including failure and non failure data and accounting for the actual scatter of the database. The present probabilistic approach can be used in conjunction with any deterministic model or correlation. For deterministic models or correlations having good prediction capability, the probability distribution will be sharply increasing within a narrow band around the best estimate value. For deterministic predictions of lower quality, instead, the resulting probability distribution will be broad and coarser

Positive predictive value and impact of misdiagnosis of a heart failure diagnosis in administrative registers among patients admitted to a University Hospital cardiac care unit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mard, Shan; Nielsen, Finn Erland

2010-01-01

To evaluate the positive predictive value (PPV) of a diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in the Danish National Registry of Patients (NRP) among patients admitted to a University Hospital cardiac care unit, and to evaluate the impact of misdiagnosing HF.......To evaluate the positive predictive value (PPV) of a diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in the Danish National Registry of Patients (NRP) among patients admitted to a University Hospital cardiac care unit, and to evaluate the impact of misdiagnosing HF....

Feasibility of Primary Tumor Culture Models and Preclinical Prediction Assays for Head and Neck Cancer: A Narrative Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy J. C. Dohmen

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Primary human tumor culture models allow for individualized drug sensitivity testing and are therefore a promising technique to achieve personalized treatment for cancer patients. This would especially be of interest for patients with advanced stage head and neck cancer. They are extensively treated with surgery, usually in combination with high-dose cisplatin chemoradiation. However, adding cisplatin to radiotherapy is associated with an increase in severe acute toxicity, while conferring only a minor overall survival benefit. Hence, there is a strong need for a preclinical model to identify patients that will respond to the intended treatment regimen and to test novel drugs. One of such models is the technique of culturing primary human tumor tissue. This review discusses the feasibility and success rate of existing primary head and neck tumor culturing techniques and their corresponding chemo- and radiosensitivity assays. A comprehensive literature search was performed and success factors for culturing in vitro are debated, together with the actual value of these models as preclinical prediction assay for individual patients. With this review, we aim to fill a gap in the understanding of primary culture models from head and neck tumors, with potential importance for other tumor types as well.

Merkel cell carcinoma of the head and neck: poorer prognosis than non-head and neck sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Morand, G B; Madana, J; Da Silva, S D; Hier, M P; Mlynarek, A M; Black, M J

2016-04-01

Merkel cell carcinoma is a rare, aggressive neurocutaneous malignancy. This study investigated whether patients with Merkel cell carcinoma in the head and neck had poorer outcomes than patients with Merkel cell carcinoma located elsewhere. A retrospective study was performed of patients with Merkel cell carcinoma treated at the Jewish General Hospital in Montréal, Canada, from 1993 to 2013. Associations between clinicopathological characteristics and disease-free and disease-specific survival rates were examined according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Twenty-seven patients were identified. Although basic clinicopathological characteristics and treatments were similar between head and neck and non-head and neck Merkel cell carcinoma groups, disease-free and disease-specific survival rates were significantly lower in the head and neck Merkel cell carcinoma group (log-rank test; p = 0.043 and p = 0.001, respectively). Mortality was mainly due to distant metastasis. Patients with head and neck Merkel cell carcinoma had poorer survival rates than patients with non-head and neck Merkel cell carcinoma in our study. The tendency to obtain close margins, a less predictable metastatic pattern, and/or intrinsic tumour factors related to the head and neck may explain this discrepancy.

Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

Numerical models for the prediction of failure for multilayer fusion Al-alloy sheets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorji, Maysam; Berisha, Bekim; Hora, Pavel; Timm, Jürgen

2013-01-01

Initiation and propagation of cracks in monolithic and multi-layer aluminum alloys, called “Fusion”, is investigated. 2D plane strain finite element simulations are performed to model deformation due to bending and to predict failure. For this purpose, fracture strains are measured based on microscopic pictures of Nakajima specimens. In addition to, micro-structure of materials is taken into account by introducing a random grain distribution over the sheet thickness as well as a random distribution of the measured yield curve. It is shown that the performed experiments and the introduced FE-Model are appropriate methods to highlight the advantages of the Fusion material, especially for bending processes

Head-to-head comparison of BNP and IL-6 as markers of clinical and experimental heart failure: Superiority of BNP.

Science.gov (United States)

Birner, Christoph M; Ulucan, Coskun; Fredersdorf, Sabine; Rihm, Munhie; Löwel, Hannelore; Stritzke, Jan; Schunkert, Heribert; Hengstenberg, Christian; Holmer, Stephan; Riegger, Günter; Luchner, Andreas

2007-11-01

Activation of BNP and IL-6 are hallmarks of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and congestive heart failure (CHF). To assess the relative activation of BNP and IL-6 in clinical and experimental heart failure, we performed a human study in which plasma N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) and IL-6 were measured in a large group of patients in the chronic phase after myocardial infarction (MI) and an animal study in which LV gene expression of BNP and IL-6 was assessed in rapid ventricular pacing-induced heart failure. In the human study, NT-proBNP and IL-6 were measured by non-extracted, enzyme-linked immunoassay in 845 subjects (n=468 outpatients after MI, MONICA MI register Augsburg; and 377 siblings without MI, control). NT-proBNP (295+/-23pg/mL vs. CTRL 84+/-8, PNT-proBNP was significantly correlated with several cardiac structural and functional parameters (EF, LVMI, history of MI, CHF symptoms; all PNT-proBNP with a greater sensitivity, specificity, and ROC-area (85%, 88%, and 0.87, respectively) as compared to IL-6 (69%, 53%, and 0.67, respectively). In the animal study, IL-6 and BNP expression were both significantly elevated in CHF (both PBNP. In addition, BNP mRNA expression displayed a stronger inverse correlation with LV function (r=-0.74; Pheart failure but to a significantly lesser degree than that of BNP. Both the stronger expression of BNP and the better correlation with LV function provide the molecular basis for a diagnostic superiority of NT-proBNP in clinical LV dysfunction and heart failure.

Pigeons (C. livia Follow Their Head during Turning Flight: Head Stabilization Underlies the Visual Control of Flight

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivo G. Ros

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Similar flight control principles operate across insect and vertebrate fliers. These principles indicate that robust solutions have evolved to meet complex behavioral challenges. Following from studies of visual and cervical feedback control of flight in insects, we investigate the role of head stabilization in providing feedback cues for controlling turning flight in pigeons. Based on previous observations that the eyes of pigeons remain at relatively fixed orientations within the head during flight, we test potential sensory control inputs derived from head and body movements during 90° aerial turns. We observe that periods of angular head stabilization alternate with rapid head repositioning movements (head saccades, and confirm that control of head motion is decoupled from aerodynamic and inertial forces acting on the bird's continuously rotating body during turning flapping flight. Visual cues inferred from head saccades correlate with changes in flight trajectory; whereas the magnitude of neck bending predicts angular changes in body position. The control of head motion to stabilize a pigeon's gaze may therefore facilitate extraction of important motion cues, in addition to offering mechanisms for controlling body and wing movements. Strong similarities between the sensory flight control of birds and insects may also inspire novel designs of robust controllers for human-engineered autonomous aerial vehicles.

HPV and high-risk gene expression profiles predict response to chemoradiotherapy in head and neck cancer, independent of clinical factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jong, Monique C. de; Pramana, Jimmy; Knegjens, Joost L.; Balm, Alfons J.M.; Brekel, Michiel W.M. van den; Hauptmann, Michael; Begg, Adrian C.; Rasch, Coen R.N.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to combine gene expression profiles and clinical factors to provide a better prediction model of local control after chemoradiotherapy for advanced head and neck cancer. Material and methods: Gene expression data were available for a series of 92 advanced stage head and neck cancer patients treated with primary chemoradiotherapy. The effect of the Chung high-risk and Slebos HPV expression profiles on local control was analyzed in a model with age at diagnosis, gender, tumor site, tumor volume, T-stage and N-stage and HPV profile status. Results: Among 75 patients included in the study, the only factors significantly predicting local control were tumor site (oral cavity vs. Pharynx, hazard ratio 4.2 [95% CI 1.4-12.5]), Chung gene expression status (high vs. Low risk profile, hazard ratio 4.4 [95% CI 1.5-13.3]) and HPV profile (negative vs. Positive profile, hazard ratio 6.2 [95% CI 1.7-22.5]). Conclusions: Chung high-risk expression profile and a negative HPV expression profile were significantly associated with increased risk of local recurrence after chemoradiotherapy in advanced pharynx and oral cavity tumors, independent of clinical factors.

Electromagnetic interference-induced instability in CPP-GMR read heads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khunkitti, P.; Siritaratiwat, A.; Kaewrawang, A.; Mewes, T.; Mewes, C.K.A.; Kruesubthaworn, A.

2016-01-01

Electromagnetic interference (EMI) has been a significant issue for the current perpendicular-to-the-plane giant magnetoresistance (CPP-GMR) read heads because it can cause magnetic failure. Furthermore, the magnetic noise induced by the spin transfer torque (STT) effect has played an important role in the CPP read heads because it can affect the stability of the heads. Accordingly, this work proposed an investigation of the magnetic instabilities induced by EMI through the STT effect in a CPP-GMR read head via micromagnetic simulations. The magnetization fluctuation caused by EMI was examined, and then, magnetic noise was evaluated by using power spectral density analysis. It was found that the magnetization orientation can be fluctuated by EMI in close proximity to the head. The results also showed a multimode spectral density. The main contributions of the spectral density were found to originate at the edges of the stripe height sides due to the characteristics of the demagnetization field inside the free layer. Hence, the magnetic instabilities produced by EMI become a significant factor that essentially impacts the reliability of the CPP-GMR read heads. - Highlights: • The instability induced by electromagnetic interference in read head is examined. • The magnetization orientation can be fluctuated by electromagnetic interference. • The electromagnetic interference can induce additional noise spectra to the system. • The noise is mainly located at stripe height of the read head. • The noise induced by electromagnetic interference is a crucial factor for the head.

Electromagnetic interference-induced instability in CPP-GMR read heads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khunkitti, P.; Siritaratiwat, A.; Kaewrawang, A. [KKU-Seagate Cooperation Research Laboratory, Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002 (Thailand); Mewes, T.; Mewes, C.K.A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, MINT Center, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 (United States); Kruesubthaworn, A., E-mail: anankr@kku.ac.th [KKU-Seagate Cooperation Research Laboratory, Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002 (Thailand)

2016-08-15

Electromagnetic interference (EMI) has been a significant issue for the current perpendicular-to-the-plane giant magnetoresistance (CPP-GMR) read heads because it can cause magnetic failure. Furthermore, the magnetic noise induced by the spin transfer torque (STT) effect has played an important role in the CPP read heads because it can affect the stability of the heads. Accordingly, this work proposed an investigation of the magnetic instabilities induced by EMI through the STT effect in a CPP-GMR read head via micromagnetic simulations. The magnetization fluctuation caused by EMI was examined, and then, magnetic noise was evaluated by using power spectral density analysis. It was found that the magnetization orientation can be fluctuated by EMI in close proximity to the head. The results also showed a multimode spectral density. The main contributions of the spectral density were found to originate at the edges of the stripe height sides due to the characteristics of the demagnetization field inside the free layer. Hence, the magnetic instabilities produced by EMI become a significant factor that essentially impacts the reliability of the CPP-GMR read heads. - Highlights: • The instability induced by electromagnetic interference in read head is examined. • The magnetization orientation can be fluctuated by electromagnetic interference. • The electromagnetic interference can induce additional noise spectra to the system. • The noise is mainly located at stripe height of the read head. • The noise induced by electromagnetic interference is a crucial factor for the head.

Femoral head osteonecrosis: Volumetric MRI assessment and outcome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bassounas, Athanasios E.; Karantanas, Apostolos H.; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I.; Malizos, Konstantinos N.

2007-01-01

Effective treatment of femoral head osteonecrosis (FHON) requires early diagnosis and accurate assessment of the disease severity. The ability to predict in the early stages the risk of collapse is important for selecting a joint salvage procedure. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the outcome in patients treated with vascularized fibular grafts in relation to preoperative MR imaging volumetry. We studied 58 patients (87 hips) with FHON. A semi-automated octant-based lesion measurement method, previously described, was performed on the T1-w MR images. The mean time of postoperative follow-up was 7.8 years. Sixty-three hips were successful and 24 failed and converted to total hip arthroplasty within a period of 2-4 years after the initial operation. The rate of failures for hips of male patients was higher than in female patients. The mean lesion size was 28% of the sphere equivalent of the femoral head, 24 ± 12% for the successful hips and 37 ± 9% for the failed (p < 0.001). The most affected octants were antero-supero-medial (58 ± 26%) and postero-supero-medial (54 ± 31%). All but postero-infero-medial and postero-infero-lateral octants, showed statistically significant differences in the lesion size between patients with successful and failed hips. In conclusion, the volumetric analysis of preoperative MRI provides useful information with regard to a successful outcome in patients treated with vascularized fibular grafts

Development of safety analysis methodology for moderator system failure of CANDU-6 reactor by thermal-hydraulics/physics coupling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jong Hyun; Jin, Dong Sik; Chang, Soon Heung

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Developed new safety analysis methodology of moderator system failures for CANDU-6. • The new methodology used the TH-physics coupling concept. • Thermalhydraulic code is CATHENA, physics code is RFSP-IST. • Moderator system failure ends to the subcriticality through self-shutdown. -- Abstract: The new safety analysis methodology for the CANDU-6 nuclear power plant (NPP) moderator system failure has been developed by using the coupling technology with the thermalhydraulic code, CATHENA and reactor core physics code, RFSP-IST. This sophisticated methodology can replace the legacy methodology using the MODSTBOIL and SMOKIN-G2 in the field of the thermalhydraulics and reactor physics, respectively. The CATHENA thermalhydraulic model of the moderator system can simulate the thermalhydraulic behaviors of all the moderator systems such as the calandria tank, head tank, moderator circulating circuit and cover gas circulating circuit and can also predict the thermalhydraulic property of the moderator such as moderator density, temperature and water level in the calandria tank as the moderator system failures go on. And these calculated moderator thermalhydraulic properties are provided to the 3-dimensional neutron kinetics solution module – CERBRRS of RFSP-IST as inputs, which can predict the change of the reactor power and provide the calculated reactor power to the CATHENA. These coupling calculations are performed at every 2 s time steps, which are equivalent to the slow control of CANDU-6 reactor regulating systems (RRS). The safety analysis results using this coupling methodology reveal that the reactor operation enters into the self-shutdown mode without any engineering safety system and/or human interventions for the postulated moderator system failures of the loss of heat sink and moderator inventory, respectively

Dead or Alive? Using Membrane Failure and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence to Predict Plant Mortality from Drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Guadagno, Carmela R; Ewers, Brent E; Speckman, Heather N; Aston, Timothy Llewellyn; Huhn, Bridger J; DeVore, Stanley B; Ladwig, Joshua T; Strawn, Rachel N; Weinig, Cynthia

2017-09-01

Climate models predict widespread increases in both drought intensity and duration in the next decades. Although water deficiency is a significant determinant of plant survival, limited understanding of plant responses to extreme drought impedes forecasts of both forest and crop productivity under increasing aridity. Drought induces a suite of physiological responses; however, we lack an accurate mechanistic description of plant response to lethal drought that would improve predictive understanding of mortality under altered climate conditions. Here, proxies for leaf cellular damage, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and electrolyte leakage were directly associated with failure to recover from drought upon rewatering in Brassica rapa (genotype R500) and thus define the exact timing of drought-induced death. We validated our results using a second genotype (imb211) that differs substantially in life history traits. Our study demonstrates that whereas changes in carbon dynamics and water transport are critical indicators of drought stress, they can be unrelated to visible metrics of mortality, i.e. lack of meristematic activity and regrowth. In contrast, membrane failure at the cellular scale is the most proximate cause of death. This hypothesis was corroborated in two gymnosperms ( Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta ) that experienced lethal water stress in the field and in laboratory conditions. We suggest that measurement of chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used to operationally define plant death arising from drought, and improved plant characterization can enhance surface model predictions of drought mortality and its consequences to ecosystem services at a global scale. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Predictors of treatment failure in young patients undergoing in vitro fertilization.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Marni B; Klonoff-Cohen, Hillary; Agarwal, Sanjay; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Lindsay, Suzanne; Garzo, V Gabriel

2016-08-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether routinely collected clinical factors can predict in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure among young, "good prognosis" patients predominantly with secondary infertility who are less than 35 years of age. Using de-identified clinic records, 414 women model predicted probability of cycle failure. One hundred ninety-seven patients with both primary and secondary infertility had a failed IVF cycle, and 217 with secondary infertility had a successful live birth. None of the women with primary infertility had a successful live birth. The significant predictors for IVF cycle failure among young patients were fewer previous live births, history of biochemical pregnancies or spontaneous abortions, lower baseline antral follicle count, higher total gonadotropin dose, unknown infertility diagnosis, and lack of at least one fair to good quality embryo. The full model showed good predictive value (c = 0.885) for estimating risk of cycle failure; at ≥80 % predicted probability of failure, sensitivity = 55.4 %, specificity = 97.5 %, positive predictive value = 95.4 %, and negative predictive value = 69.8 %. If this predictive model is validated in future studies, it could be beneficial for predicting IVF failure in good prognosis women under the age of 35 years.

Predictive value of daily living score in acute respiratory failure of COPD patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Langlet, Ketty; Van Der Linden, Thierry; Launois, Claire; Fourdin, Caroline; Cabaret, Philippe; Kerkeni, Nadia; Barbe, Coralie; Lebargy, François; Deslée, Gaetan

2012-10-18

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is imperative in many forms of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in COPD patients. Previous studies have shown the difficulty to identify parameters predicting the outcome of COPD patients treated by invasive MV. Our hypothesis was that a non specialized score as the activities daily living (ADL) score may help to predict the outcome of these patients. We studied the outcome of 25 COPD patients admitted to the intensive care unit for ARF requiring invasive MV. The patients were divided into those weaning success (group A n = 17, 68%) or failure (group B n = 8, 32%). We investigated the correlation between the ADL score and the outcome and mortality. The ADL score was higher in group A (5.1 ±1.1 vs 3.7 ± 0.7 in group B, p success and mortality at 6 months, suggesting that the assessment of daily activities should be an important component of ARF management in COPD patients.

Prediction of effects of punch shapes on tableting failure by using a multi-functional single-punch tablet press

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi Osamura

2017-09-01

Full Text Available We previously determined “Tableting properties” by using a multi-functional single-punch tablet press (GTP-1. We proposed plotting “Compactability” on the x-axis against “Manufacturability” on the y-axis to allow visual evaluation of “Tableting properties”. Various types of tableting failure occur in commercial drug production and are influenced by the amount of lubricant used and the shape of the punch. We used the GTP-1 to measure “Tableting properties” with different amounts of lubricant and compared the results with those of tableting on a commercial rotary tableting machine. Tablets compressed with a small amount of lubricant showed bad “Manufacturability”, leading to sticking of powder on punches. We also tested various punch shapes. The GTP-1 correctly predicted the actual tableting results for all punch shapes. With punches that were more likely to cause tableting failure, our system predicted the effects of lubricant quantity in the tablet formulation and the occurrence of sticking in the rotary tableting machine.

Proteins Annexin A2 and PSA in Prostate Cancer Biopsies Do Not Predict Biochemical Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, David S; Sondhauss, Sven; Dunne, Jonathan C; Woods, Lisa; Delahunt, Brett; Ferguson, Peter; Murray, Judith; Nacey, John N; Denham, James W; Jordan, T William

2017-12-01

We previously reported the use of mass spectrometry and western blotting to identify proteins from tumour regions of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded biopsies from 16 men who presented with apparently localized prostate cancer, and found that annexin A2 (ANXA2) appeared to be a better predictor of subsequent biochemical failure than prostate-specific antigen (PSA). In this follow-up study, ANXA2 and PSA were measured using western blotting of proteins extracted from biopsies from 37 men from a subsequent prostate cancer trial. No significant differences in ANXA2 and PSA levels were observed between men with and without biochemical failure. The statistical effect sizes were small, d=0.116 for ANXA2, and 0.266 for PSA. ANXA2 and PSA proteins measured from biopsy tumour regions are unlikely to be good biomarkers for prediction of the clinical outcome of prostate cancer presenting with apparently localized disease. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

2017-09-01

Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic biases in human heading estimation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luigi F Cuturi

Full Text Available Heading estimation is vital to everyday navigation and locomotion. Despite extensive behavioral and physiological research on both visual and vestibular heading estimation over more than two decades, the accuracy of heading estimation has not yet been systematically evaluated. Therefore human visual and vestibular heading estimation was assessed in the horizontal plane using a motion platform and stereo visual display. Heading angle was overestimated during forward movements and underestimated during backward movements in response to both visual and vestibular stimuli, indicating an overall multimodal bias toward lateral directions. Lateral biases are consistent with the overrepresentation of lateral preferred directions observed in neural populations that carry visual and vestibular heading information, including MSTd and otolith afferent populations. Due to this overrepresentation, population vector decoding yields patterns of bias remarkably similar to those observed behaviorally. Lateral biases are inconsistent with standard bayesian accounts which predict that estimates should be biased toward the most common straight forward heading direction. Nevertheless, lateral biases may be functionally relevant. They effectively constitute a perceptual scale expansion around straight ahead which could allow for more precise estimation and provide a high gain feedback signal to facilitate maintenance of straight-forward heading during everyday navigation and locomotion.

Depressive symptoms predict head and neck cancer survival: Examining plausible behavioral and biological pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmaro, Lauren A; Sephton, Sandra E; Siwik, Chelsea J; Phillips, Kala M; Rebholz, Whitney N; Kraemer, Helena C; Giese-Davis, Janine; Wilson, Liz; Bumpous, Jeffrey M; Cash, Elizabeth D

2018-03-01

Head and neck cancers are associated with high rates of depression, which may increase the risk for poorer immediate and long-term outcomes. Here it was hypothesized that greater depressive symptoms would predict earlier mortality, and behavioral (treatment interruption) and biological (treatment response) mediators were examined. Patients (n = 134) reported depressive symptomatology at treatment planning. Clinical data were reviewed at the 2-year follow-up. Greater depressive symptoms were associated with significantly shorter survival (hazard ratio, 0.868; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.819-0.921; P ratio, 0.865; 95% CI, 0.774-0.966; P = .010), and poorer treatment response (odds ratio, 0.879; 95% CI, 0.803-0.963; P = .005). The poorer treatment response partially explained the depression-survival relation. Other known prognostic indicators did not challenge these results. Depressive symptoms at the time of treatment planning predict overall 2-year mortality. Effects are partly influenced by the treatment response. Depression screening and intervention may be beneficial. Future studies should examine parallel biological pathways linking depression to cancer survival, including endocrine disruption and inflammation. Cancer 2018;124:1053-60. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Failure and damage analysis of advanced materials

CERN Document Server

Sadowski, Tomasz

2015-01-01

The papers in this volume present basic concepts and new developments in failure and damage analysis with focus on advanced materials such as composites, laminates, sandwiches and foams, and also new metallic materials. Starting from some mathematical foundations (limit surfaces, symmetry considerations, invariants) new experimental results and their analysis are shown. Finally, new concepts for failure prediction and analysis will be introduced and discussed as well as new methods of failure and damage prediction for advanced metallic and non-metallic materials. Based on experimental results the traditional methods will be revised.

Failure mitigation in software defined networking employing load type prediction

KAUST Repository

Bouacida, Nader; Alghadhban, Amer Mohammad JarAlla; Alalmaei, Shiyam Mohammed Abdullah; Mohammed, Haneen; Shihada, Basem

2017-01-01

The controller is a critical piece of the SDN architecture, where it is considered as the mastermind of SDN networks. Thus, its failure will cause a significant portion of the network to fail. Overload is one of the common causes of failure since

Leishmania Antigenuria to Predict Initial Treatment Failure and Relapse in Visceral Leishmaniasis/HIV Coinfected Patients: An Exploratory Study Nested Within a Clinical Trial in Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

van Griensven, Johan; Mengesha, Bewketu; Mekonnen, Tigist; Fikre, Helina; Takele, Yegnasew; Adem, Emebet; Mohammed, Rezika; Ritmeijer, Koert; Vogt, Florian; Adriaensen, Wim; Diro, Ermias

2018-01-01

Background: Biomarkers predicting the risk of VL treatment failure and relapse in VL/HIV coinfected patients are needed. Nested within a two-site clinical trial in Ethiopia (2011-2015), we conducted an exploratory study to assess whether (1) levels of Leishmania antigenuria measured at VL diagnosis were associated with initial treatment failure and (2) levels of Leishmania antigenuria at the end of treatment (parasitologically-confirmed cure) were associated with subsequent relapse. Methods: Leishmania antigenuria at VL diagnosis and cure was determined using KAtex urine antigen test and graded as negative (0), weak/moderate (grade 1+/2+) or strongly-positive (3+). Logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to assess the association between antigenuria and (1) initial treatment failure, and (2) relapse over the 12 months after cure, respectively. Results: The analysis to predict initial treatment failure included sixty-three coinfected adults [median age: 30 years interquartile range (IQR) 27-35], median CD4 count: 56 cells/μL (IQR 38-113). KAtex results at VL diagnosis were negative in 11 (17%), weak/moderate in 17 (27%) and strongly-positive in 35 (36%). Twenty (32%) patients had parasitologically-confirmed treatment failure, with a risk of failure of 9% (1/11) with KAtex-negative results, 0% (0/17) for KAtex 1+/2+ and 54% (19/35) for KAtex 3+ results. Compared to KAtex-negative patients, KAtex 3+ patients were at increased risk of treatment failure [odds ratio 11.9 (95% CI 1.4-103.0); P : 0.025]. Forty-four patients were included in the analysis to predict relapse [median age: 31 years (IQR 28-35), median CD4 count: 116 cells/μL (IQR 95-181)]. When achieving VL cure, KAtex results were negative in 19 (43%), weak/moderate (1+/2+) in 10 (23%), and strongly positive (3+) in 15 patients (34%). Over the subsequent 12 months, eight out of 44 patients (18%) relapsed. The predicted 1-year relapse risk was 6% for KAtex-negative results, 14% for KAtex 1

Failure modes of composite sandwich beams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gdoutos E.

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A thorough investigation of failure behavior of composite sandwich beams under three-and four-point bending was undertaken. The beams were made of unidirectional carbon/epoxy facings and a PVC closed-cell foam core. The constituent materials were fully characterized and in the case of the foam core, failure envelopes were developed for general two-dimensional states of stress. Various failure modes including facing wrinkling, indentation failure and core failure were observed and compared with analytical predictions. The initiation, propagation and interaction of failure modes depend on the type of loading, constituent material properties and geometrical dimensions.

Advancement Flap for Treatment of Complex Cryptoglandular Anal Fistula: Prediction of Therapy Success or Failure Using Anamnestic and Clinical Parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Boenicke, Lars; Karsten, Eduard; Zirngibl, Hubert; Ambe, Peter

2017-09-01

Multiple new procedures for treatment of complex anal fistula have been described in the past decades, but an ideal single technique has yet not been identified. Factors that predict the outcome are required to identify the best procedure for each individual patient. The aim of this study was to find those predictors for advancement flap at midterm follow-up. From 2012 to 2015 in a tertiary university clinic, all patients who underwent advancement flap for treatment of complex cryptoglandular fistula were prospectively enrolled. Pre- and postoperatively standardized anamnestic and clinical examinations were performed. Predictive factors for therapy failure were identified using univariate and multivariate analysis. Out of 65 patients, 61 (93%) completed all examinations and were included in the study. Therapy failure after a mean follow-up period of 25 months occurred in total n = 11 patients (18%). There was no significant disturbance of continence among the entire study cohort as shown by the incontinence score (preop 0.34 ± 0.91 pts., postop 0.37 ± 0.97 pts.; p = 0.59). Univariate analysis for risk factors for therapy failure revealed age (p = 0.004), history of surgical abscess drainage (p = 0.04), BMI (p = 0.002), suprasphincteric fistula (p = 0.019) and horseshoe abscess (p = 0.036) as independent parameters for therapy failure. During multivariate analysis, only history of surgical abscess drainage (OR = 8.09, p = 0.048, 95% CI 0.98-64.96), suprasphincteric fistula (OR = 6.83, p = 0.032, 95% CI 1.17-6.83) and BMI (OR = 1.23, p = 0.017, 95% CI 1.03-1.46) were independent parameters for therapy failure. Advancement flap for treatment of complex fistula is effective and has low risk of disturbed continence. BMI, suprasphincteric fistula and history of surgical abscess drainage are predictors for therapy failure.

Predicting Factors of INSURE Failure in Low Birth Weight Neonates with RDS; A Logistic Regression Model

OpenAIRE

Bita Najafian; Aminsaburi Aminsaburi; Seyyed Hassan Fakhraei; Abolfazl afjeh; Fatemeh Eghbal; Reza Noroozian

2015-01-01

Background:Respiratory Distress syndrome is the most common respiratory disease in premature neonate and the most important cause of death among them. We aimed to investigate factors to predict successful or failure of INSURE method as a therapeutic method of RDS. Methods:In a cohort study,45 neonates with diagnosed RDS and birth weight lower than 1500g were included and they underwent INSURE followed by NCPAP(Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure). The patients were divided into failu...

Resting energy expenditure and body composition in patients with head and neck cancer: An observational study leading to a new predictive equation.

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, Micheline Tereza Pires; Singer, Pierre; Ozorio, Gislaine Aparecida; Rosa, Vitor Modesto; Alves, Maria Manuela Ferreira; Mendoza López, Rossana Verónica; Waitzberg, Dan L

2018-02-05

Patients with head and neck cancer have changes in body composition and resting energy expenditure (REE) related to significant inflammatory processes. We investigated REE and body composition in a population of patients with head and neck cancer, comparing the measured REE with predicted energy expenditure and deriving an equation of anthropometric values and body composition. This retrospective, observational, descriptive study of a single center included patients with head and neck cancer. We evaluated nutritional status by body mass index (BMI) and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), body composition by electric bioimpedance, and REE by indirect calorimetry (IC). We included 140 patients, most of whom were men (80.7%), 60 y or older (58.6%), and had advanced disease (77.9%). Most were malnourished by BMI standards (77.9%) and severely malnourished according to the PG-SGA (49.3%), with a fat-free mass below the ideal values (82.9%) associated with sarcopenia (92.1%). Hypermetabolism was 57%. When comparing REE with the Harris-Benedict formula, we found the agreement limits from -546 613 to 240 708, the mean difference was -152 953 (95% confidence interval [CI], -185 844 to -120 062) and Pitman's variance test was r = -0.294 (P = 0.001). When we included the activity factor and the thermogenesis factor in REE and compared with Harris-Benedict, we found the agreement limits from -764.423 to 337.087, a mean difference of -213.668 (95% CI -259.684 to -167.652), and the Pitman's variance text at r = -0.292 (P = 0.001). Predictive equations, generally recommended by guidelines, are imprecise when compared with IC measures. Therefore, we suggest a new predictive equation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

2014-09-15

Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

Hyperfractionation radiation therapy in advanced head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jin Hee; Ye, Ji Won

2003-01-01

The effects of hyperfractionation radiation therapy, such as the failure pattern and survival, on the treatment results in advanced stage head and neck cancer were studied. Between September 1990 and October 1998, 24 patients with advanced stage (III, IV) head and neck cancers, were treated using hyperfractionation radiation therapy in the Department at Radiation Oncology at the Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center. The male to female ratio was 7 ; 1, and the age range from 38 to 71 years with the median of 56 years. With regard to the TNM stage, 11 patients were stage III and 13 were stage IV. The sites of primary cancer were the nasopharynx in six, the hypopharynx in 6, the larynx in five, the oropharynx in three, the maxillary sinus in three, and the oral cavity in one patient. The radiotherapy was delivered by 6 MV X-ray, with a fraction size of 1.2 Gy at two fractions a day, with at least 6 hours inter-fractional interval. The mean total radiation doses was 72 Gy, (ranging from 64.4 to 76.8 Gy). Fallow-up periods ranged between 3 and 136 months, with the median of 52 months. The overall survival rates at 3 and 5 years in all patients were 66.7% and 52.4%. The disease-free survival rates at 3 and 5 years (3YDFS, 5YDFS) in all patients Were 66.7% and 47.6%. The 3YDFS and 5YDFS in stage III patients were 81.8% and 63.6%, and those in stage IV patients were 53.8% and 32.3%. Ten patients were alive with no local nor distant failures at the time of analyses. Six patients (25%) died due to distant metastasis and 12.5% died due to local failure. Distant metastasis was the major cause of failure, but 2 patients died due to unknown failures and 3 of other diseases. The distant metastasis sites were the lung (3 patients), the bone (1 patient), and the liver (2 patients). One patient died of second esophageal cancer. There were no severe late complications, with the exception of 1 osteoradionecrosis of the mandible 58 months after treatment. Although this study was

Long Term Survivorship of a Severely Notched Femoral Stem after Replacing the Fractured Ceramic head with a Cobalt-Chromium Head.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagopoulos, Andreas; Tatani, Irini; Megas, Panagiotis

2016-01-01

Although ceramic head fracture occurs infrequently today, in the event of a fracture, the resulting revision surgery can prove very challenging, since the ceramic particles lodge into the surrounding soft tissue and can cause rapid implant failure. A case of long term survivorship of a severed notched femoral stem after replacing the fractured femoral head with a cobalt-chromium one is reported in a 40-year old woman with hip dysplasia who underwent an uncomplicated total hip arthroplasty. The incident of ceramic femoral head fracture occurred 14 months postoperatively without reporting any significant trauma. Intraoperative findings at revision were a multifragmented femoral head and a damaged polyethylene insert along with diffuse metallosis and excessive wear of the cone of the stem. Both the stem and the acetabular component were stable. After removal of ceramic fragments, metallotic tissue excision and careful lavage of the joint, the inlay was replaced by a similar one and a cobalt-chromium femoral head was placed to the existing notched taper of the firmly incorporated stem. At the 13 th year follow up examination, the patient had no pain, used no walking aids, and had normal activity with no signs of wearing or loosening in the plain x-rays. Despite current recommendations of using ceramic femoral heads in cases of fracture or to revise the severely damaged stems we were able to provide a long term survivorship up to 13 years postoperatively of a cobalt-chromium femoral head applied to a severe damaged stem.

Bone density in relation to failure in patients with osteosynthesized femoral neck fractures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Viberg, Bjarke; Ryg, Jesper; Lauritsen, Jens

2011-01-01

Background The treatment of femoral neck fracture with internal fixation (IF) is recommended in younger patients and has compared to arthroplasty the advantage of retaining the femoral head. A big problem with osteosynthesis is though failure. Finding predictors for fixation failure is still......,2 (75,4-79,0). Failure is defined as revision surgery or new fracture. Results 69 patients had a t-score (total hip) below -2,5 SD as defined for osteoporosis. At 1 year the overall (dislocated) failure rate was 34,5 % (44,7 %), at 2 years 45,4 % (60,0 %) and at end of follow-up 49,6 % (62...

Acute liver failure and self-medication.

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira, André Vitorio Câmara; Rocha, Frederico Theobaldo Ramos; Abreu, Sílvio Romero de Oliveira

2014-01-01

Not responsible self-medication refers to drug use in high doses without rational indication and often associated with alcohol abuse. It can lead to liver damage and drug interactions, and may cause liver failure. To warn about how the practice of self-medication can be responsible for acute liver failure. Were used the Medline via PubMed, Cochrane Library, SciELO and Lilacs, and additional information on institutional sites of interest crossing the headings acute liver failure [tiab] AND acetaminophen [tiab]; self-medication [tiab] AND acetaminophen [tiab]; acute liver failure [tiab] AND dietary supplements [tiab]; self-medication [tiab] AND liver failure [tiab] and self-medication [tiab] AND green tea [tiab]. In Lilacs and SciELO used the descriptor self medication in Portuguese and Spanish. From total surveyed were selected 27 articles and five sites specifically related to the purpose of this review. Legislation and supervision disabled and information inaccessible to people, favors the emergence of cases of liver failure drug in many countries. In the list of released drugs that deserve more attention and care, are some herbal medicines used for the purpose of weight loss, and acetaminophen. It is recommended that institutes of health intensify supervision and better orient their populations on drug seemingly harmless, limiting the sale of products or requiring a prescription for release them.

Value of routine investigations to predict loop diuretic down-titration success in stable heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, Pieter; Verbrugge, Frederik H; Boonen, Levinia; Nijst, Petra; Dupont, Matthias; Mullens, Wilfried

2018-01-01

Guidelines advocate down-titration of loop diuretics in chronic heart failure (CHF) when patients have no signs of volume overload. Limited data are available on the expected success rate of this practice or how routine diagnostic tests might help steering this process. Fifty ambulatory CHF-patients on stable neurohumoral blocker/diuretic therapy for at least 3months without any clinical sign of volume overload were prospectively included to undergo loop diuretic down-titration. All patients underwent a similar pre-down-titration evaluation consisting of a dyspnea scoring, physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography (diastolic function, right ventricular function, cardiac filling pressures and valvular disease), blood sample (serum creatinine, plasma NT-pro-BNP and neurohormones). Loop diuretic maintenance dose was subsequently reduced by 50% or stopped if dose was ≤40mg furosemide equivalents. Successful down-titration was defined as a persistent dose reduction after 30days without weight increase >1.5kg or new-onset symptoms of worsening heart failure. At 30-day follow-up, down-titration was successful in 62% (n=31). In 12/19 patients exhibiting down-titration failure, this occurred within the first week. Physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography and laboratory analysis had limited predictive capability to detect patients with down-titration success/failure (positive likelihood-ratios below 1.5, or area under the curve [AUC] non-statically different from AUC=0.5). Loop diuretic down-titration is feasible in a majority of stable CHF patients in which the treating clinician felt continuation of loops was unnecessary to sustain euvolemia. Importantly, routine diagnostics which suggest euvolemia, have limited diagnostic impact on the post-test probability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision Trees Predicting Tumor Shrinkage for Head and Neck Cancer: Implications for Adaptive Radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Surucu, Murat; Shah, Karan K; Mescioglu, Ibrahim; Roeske, John C; Small, William; Choi, Mehee; Emami, Bahman

2016-02-01

To develop decision trees predicting for tumor volume reduction in patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer using pretreatment clinical and pathological parameters. Forty-eight patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the nasopharynx, oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were rescanned at a median dose of 37.8 Gy and replanned to account for anatomical changes. The percentages of gross tumor volume (GTV) change from initial to rescan computed tomography (CT; %GTVΔ) were calculated. Two decision trees were generated to correlate %GTVΔ in primary and nodal volumes with 14 characteristics including age, gender, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), site, human papilloma virus (HPV) status, tumor grade, primary tumor growth pattern (endophytic/exophytic), tumor/nodal/group stages, chemotherapy regimen, and primary, nodal, and total GTV volumes in the initial CT scan. The C4.5 Decision Tree induction algorithm was implemented. The median %GTVΔ for primary, nodal, and total GTVs was 26.8%, 43.0%, and 31.2%, respectively. Type of chemotherapy, age, primary tumor growth pattern, site, KPS, and HPV status were the most predictive parameters for primary %GTVΔ decision tree, whereas for nodal %GTVΔ, KPS, site, age, primary tumor growth pattern, initial primary GTV, and total GTV volumes were predictive. Both decision trees had an accuracy of 88%. There can be significant changes in primary and nodal tumor volumes during the course of H&N chemoradiotherapy. Considering the proposed decision trees, radiation oncologists can select patients predicted to have high %GTVΔ, who would theoretically gain the most benefit from adaptive radiotherapy, in order to better use limited clinical resources. © The Author(s) 2015.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core Concrete Interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robb, Kevin R; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W

2015-01-01

Lower head failure and corium concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH.

Axis of eye rotation changes with head-pitch orientation during head impulses about earth-vertical.

Science.gov (United States)

Migliaccio, Americo A; Schubert, Michael C; Clendaniel, Richard A; Carey, John P; Della Santina, Charles C; Minor, Lloyd B; Zee, David S

2006-06-01

The goal of this study was to assess how the axis of head rotation, Listing's law, and eye position influence the axis of eye rotation during brief, rapid head rotations. We specifically asked how the axis of eye rotation during the initial angular vestibuloocular reflex (VOR) changed when the pitch orientation of the head relative to Earth-vertical was varied, but the initial position of the eye in the orbit and the orientation of Listing's plane with respect to the head were fixed. We measured three-dimensional eye and head rotation axes in eight normal humans using the search coil technique during head-and-trunk (whole-body) and head-on-trunk (head-only) "impulses" about an Earth-vertical axis. The head was initially oriented at one of five pitch angles (30 degrees nose down, 15 degrees nose down, 0 degrees, 15 degrees nose up, 30 degrees nose up). The fixation target was always aligned with the nasooccipital axis. Whole-body impulses were passive, unpredictable, manual, rotations with peak-amplitude of approximately 20 degrees , peak-velocity of approximately 80 degrees /s, and peak-acceleration of approximately 1000 degrees /s2. Head-only impulses were also passive, unpredictable, manual, rotations with peak-amplitude of approximately 20 degrees , peak-velocity of approximately 150 degrees /s, and peak-acceleration of approximately 3000 degrees /s2. During whole-body impulses, the axis of eye rotation tilted in the same direction, and by an amount proportional (0.51 +/- 0.09), to the starting pitch head orientation (P rotation could be predicted from vectorial summation of the gains (eye velocity/head velocity) obtained for rotations about the pure yaw and roll head axes. Thus, even when the orientation of Listing's plane and eye position in the orbit are fixed, the axis of eye rotation during the VOR reflects a compromise between the requirements of Listing's law and a perfectly compensatory VOR.

Predicting Bank Financial Failures Using Discriminant Analysis And Support Vector Machines Methods A Comparative Analysis In Commercial Banks In Sudan 2006-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed A. SirElkhatim

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Bank failures threaten the economic system as a whole. Therefore predicting bank financial failures is crucial to prevent andor lessen its negative effects on the economic system. Financial crises affecting both emerging markets and advanced countries over the centuries have severe economic consequences but they can be hard to prevent and predict identifying financial crises causes remains both science and art said Stijn Claessens assistant director of the International Monetary Fund. While it would be better to mitigate risks financial crises will recur often in waves and better crisis management is therefore important. Analyses of recurrent causes suggest that to prevent crises governments should consider reforms in many underlying areas. That includes developing prudent fiscal and monetary policies better regulating the financial sector including reducing the problem of too-big-to-fail banks and developing effective macro-prudential policies. Despite new regulations and better supervision crises are likely to recur in part because they can reflect deeper problems related to income inequality the political economy and common human behavior. As such improvements in crisis management are also needed. This is originally a classification problem to categorize banks as healthy or non-healthy ones. This study aims to apply Discriminant analysis and Support Vector Machines methods to the bank failure prediction problem in a Sudanese case and to present a comprehensive computational comparison of the classification performances of the techniques tested. Eleven financial and non-financial ratios with six feature groups including capital adequacy asset quality Earning and liquidity CAMELS are selected as predictor variables in the study. Credit risk also been evaluated using logistic analysis to study the effect of Islamic finance modes sectors and payment types used by Sudanese banks with regard to their possibilities of failure. Experimental results

Operational reliability of the GPK and the 4PP-2 heading machines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ivanov, N.A.; Demchenko, N.T.

1985-09-01

Reliability of the GPK and 4PP-2 heading machines used in 98 development workings in 40 coal mines is analyzed. Failure analysis was based on records of 199 heading machines after overhauls. The mean-time-between-failures of the GPK and the 4PP-2 was 270 min (93 t) and 155 min (35 t), availability coefficient was 0.83 and 0.77 respectively. Reliability of the GPK on the average was higher than that of the 4PP-2. The mean-time-to-overhaul of the GPK was 17.7 months (54,000 t), of the 4PP-2 - 18 months (59,000 t). Time between overhauls in the case of the GPK was 14 months (47,200 t), in the case of the 4PP-2 it was 14.5 months (38,300 t). During the 17.7 months between overhauls the GPK failed 580 times, the repair operations lasted 530 h. During the 18 month time to overhaul the 4PP-2 failed 1600 times, the repair operations lasted 1300 h. Reliability of major elements of the 2 heading machines is analyzed: cutters, materials handling equipment, electrical equipment, hydraulic systems, dust suppression systems, etc.

The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Guida, Pietro; Passantino, Andrea; Raimondo, Rosa; Guida, Valentina; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Canova, Paolo; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Frigerio, Maria; Lagioia, Rocco; Oliva, Fabrizio

2014-04-01

The acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/NT-proBNP) score is a validated risk scoring system that predicts mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients with a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). We sought to assess discrimination and calibration of the score when applied to patients with advanced decompensated heart failure (AHF). We studied 445 patients hospitalized for AHF, defined by the presence of severe symptoms of worsening HF at admission, severely depressed LVEF, and the need for intravenous diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. The primary outcome was cumulative (in-hospital and post-discharge) mortality and post-discharge 1-year mortality. Separate analyses were performed for patients aged ≤ 70 years. A Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) was calculated for each patient discharged alive. During follow-up, 144 patients (32.4%) died, and 69 (15.5%) underwent heart transplantation (HT) or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. After accounting for the competing events (VAD/HT), the ADHF/NT-proBNP score's C-statistic for cumulative mortality was 0.738 in the overall cohort and 0.771 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. The C-statistic for post-discharge mortality was 0.741 and 0.751, respectively. Adding prior (≤6 months) hospitalizations for HF to the score increased the C-statistic for post-discharge mortality to 0.759 in the overall cohort and to 0.774 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. Predicted and observed mortality rates by quartiles of score were highly correlated. The SHFS demonstrated adequate discrimination but underestimated the risk. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk calculator is available at http://www.fsm.it/fsm/file/NTproBNPscore.zip. Our data suggest that the ADHF/NT-proBNP score may efficiently predict mortality in patients hospitalized with AHF. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

CERN Document Server

El Hami, Abdelkhalak

2015-01-01

In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

Predicting the Failure of Aluminum Exposed to Simulated Fire and Mechanical Loading Using Finite Element Modeling

OpenAIRE

Arthur, Katherine Marie

2011-01-01

The interest in the use of aluminum as a structural material in marine applications has increased greatly in recent years. This increase is primarily due to the low weight of aluminum compared to other structural materials as well as its ability to resist corrosion. However, a critical issue in the use of any structural material for naval applications is its response to fire. Past experience has shown that finite element programs can produce accurate predictions of failure of structural c...

Clinical assessment scoring system for tracheostomy (CASST) criterion: Objective criteria to predict pre-operatively the need for a tracheostomy in head and neck malignancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Karan; Mandlik, Dushyant; Patel, Daxesh; Patel, Purvi; Shah, Bankim; Vijay, Devanhalli G; Kothari, Jagdish M; Toprani, Rajendra B; Patel, Kaustubh D

2016-09-01

Tracheostomy is a mainstay modality for airway management for patients with head-neck cancer undergoing surgery. This study aims to define factors predicting need of tracheostomy and define an effective objective criterion to predict tracheostomy need. 486 patients undergoing composite resections were studied. Factors analyzed were age, previous surgery, extent of surgery, trismus, extent of mandibular resection and reconstruction etc. Factors were divided into major and minor, using the clinical assessment scoring system for tracheostomy (CASST) criterion. Sixty seven (13.7%) patients required tracheostomy for their peri-operative management. Elective tracheostomies were done in 53 cases during surgery and post-operatively in 14 patients. All patients in whom tracheostomies were anticipated had a score of seven or more. A decision on whether or not an elective tracheotomy in head and neck surgery is necessary and can be facilitated using CASST criterion, which has a sensitivity of 95.5% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.3%. It may reduce post-operative complications and contribute to safer treatment. Copyright © 2016 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HE4 Serum Levels Are Associated with Heart Failure Severity in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Piek, Arnold; Meijers, Wouter C.; Schroten, Nicolas F.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; de Boer, Rudolf A.; Sillje, Herman H. W.

Background: The novel biomarker human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) shows prognostic value in acute heart failure (HF) patients. We measured HE4 levels in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and correlated them to HF severity, kidney function, and HF biomarkers, and determined its predictive

Post-traumatic avascular necrosis of the femoral head predicted by preoperative technetium-99m antimony-colloid scan: an experimental and clinical study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, J.H.

1983-01-01

Technetium-99m antimony colloid was used to visualize the bone marrow of the head of the femur within twenty-four hours after interruption of the blood supply by subcapital osteotomy and section of the ligamentum teres in thirteen rabbits and within twenty-four hours after a subcapital fracture in thirty patients. Of the rabbits, all showed loss of marrow radioactivity over the affected femoral head. Bone-imaging with technetium-99m methylene diphosphonate, in contrast, failed to demonstrate any abnormality in the avascular head of the femur for as long as forty-eight hours after osteotomy. This difference between the marrow scan and the bone scan was attributed to earlier loss of function in the marrow cells than in the osteocytes. The thirty patients who had a preoperative scan within twenty-four hours after sustaining a subcapital fracture were treated by internal fixation with a Richards screw and plate and were followed for as long as two years, or until the patient died or radiographs showed evidence of avascular necrosis. The preoperative technetium-99m antimony-colloid activity in the head of the fractured femur was normal in sixteen patients and absent in fourteen; two of the fourteen had no activity in either hip, which precluded assessment of the fractured hip in these patients. In fifteen of the sixteen hips, preservation of the uptake in the marrow of the head of the fractured femur preoperatively predicted normal healing. Late segmental collapse developed in the remaining hip. In eleven of the twelve patients who had loss of marrow activity in the femoral head preoperatively, avascular necrosis developed within two years

A simple approach to modeling ductile failure.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wellman, Gerald William

2012-06-01

Sandia National Laboratories has the need to predict the behavior of structures after the occurrence of an initial failure. In some cases determining the extent of failure, beyond initiation, is required, while in a few cases the initial failure is a design feature used to tailor the subsequent load paths. In either case, the ability to numerically simulate the initiation and propagation of failures is a highly desired capability. This document describes one approach to the simulation of failure initiation and propagation.

Failure Analysis of Storage Data Magnetic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ortiz–Prado A.

2010-10-01

Full Text Available This paper shows the conclusions about the corrosion mechanics in storage data magnetic systems (hard disk. It was done from the inspection of 198 units that were in service in nine different climatic regions characteristic for Mexico. The results allow to define trends about the failure forms and the factors that affect them. In turn, this study has analyzed the causes that led to mechanical failure and those due to deterioration by atmospheric corrosion. On the basis of the results obtained from the field sampling, demonstrates that the hard disk failure is fundamentally by mechanical effects. The deterioration by environmental effects were found in read-write heads, integrated circuits, printed circuit boards and in some of the electronic components of the controller card of the device, but not in magnetic storage surfaces. There fore, you can discard corrosion on the surface of the disk as the main kind of failure due to environmental deterioration. To avoid any inconvenience in the magnetic data storage system it is necessary to ensure sealing of the system.

Femoral head vitality after intracapsular hip fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stroemqvist, B.

1983-01-01

Femoral head vitality before, during and at various intervals from the operation was determined by tetracycline labeling and/or 99 sp (m)Tc-MDP scintimetry. In a three-year follow-up, healing prognosis could be determined by scintimetry 3 weeks from operation; deficient femoral head vitality predicting healing complications and retained vitality predicting uncomplicated healing. A comparison between pre- and postoperative scintimetry indicated that further impairment of the femoral head vitality could be caused by the operative procedure, and as tetracycline labeling prior to and after fracture reduction in 370 fractures proved equivalent, it was concluded that the procedure of osteosynthesis probably was responsible for capsular vessel injury, using a four-flanged nail. The four-flanged nail was compared with a low-traumatic method of osteosynthesis, two hook-pins, in a prospective randomized 14 month study, and the postoperative femoral head vitality was significantly better in the hook-pin group. This was also clearly demonstrated in a one-year follow-up for the fractures included in the study. Parallel to these investigations, the reliability of the methods of vitality determination was found satisfactory in methodologic studies. For clinical purpose, primary atraumatic osteosynthesis, postoperative prognostic scintimetry and early secondary arthroplasty when indicated, was concluded to be the appropriate approach to femoral neck fracture treatment. (Author)

Seismic ratchet-fatigue failure of piping systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Severud, L.K.; Anderson, M.J.; Lindquist, M.R.; Weiner, E.O.

1986-01-01

Failures of piping systems during earthquakes have been rare. Those that have failed were either made of brittle material such as cast iron, were rigid systems between major components where component relative seismic motions tore the pipe out of the component, or were high pressure systems where a ratchet-fatigue fracture followed a local bulging of the pipe diameter. Tests to failure of an unpressurized 3-in. and a pressurized 6-in. diameter carbon steel nuclear pipe systems subjected to high level shaking have been accomplished. Failure analyses of these tests are presented and correlated to the test results. It was found that failure of the unpressurized system could be correlated well with standard ASME type fatigue analysis predictions. Moreover, the pressurized system failure occurred in significantly less load cycles than predicted by standard fatigue analysis. However, a ratchet-fatigue and ductility exhaustion analysis of the pressurized system did correlate very well. These findings indicate modifications to design analysis methods and the present ASME Code piping design rules may be appropriate to cover the ratchet-fatigue failure mode

Is there a way to predict failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy for single and short bulbar urethral strictures?

Science.gov (United States)

Harraz, Ahmed M; El-Assmy, Ahmed; Mahmoud, Osama; Elbakry, Amr A; Tharwat, Mohamed; Omar, Helmy; Farg, Hashim; Laymon, Mahmoud; Mosbah, Ahmed

2015-12-01

To identify patient and stricture characteristics predicting failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) for single and short (urethroplasty. Predictors of failure were analysed. In all, 430 adult patients with a mean (SD) age of 50 (15) years were included. The main causes of stricture were idiopathic followed by iatrogenic in 51.6% and 26.3% of patients, respectively. Most patients presented with obstructive lower urinary tract symptoms (68.9%) and strictures were proximal bulbar, i.e. just close to the external urethral sphincter, in 35.3%. The median (range) follow-up duration was 29 (3-132) months. In all, 250 (58.1%) patients did not require any further instrumentation, while RSD was maintained in 116 (27%) patients, including 28 (6.5%) who required a redo DVIU or urethroplasty. In 64 (6.5%) patients, a redo DVIU or urethroplasty was performed. On multivariate analysis, older age at presentation [odds ratio (OR) 1.017; P = 0.03], obesity (OR 1.664; P = 0.015), and idiopathic strictures (OR 3.107; P = 0.035) were independent predictors of failure after DVIU. The failure rate after DVIU accounted for 41.8% of our present cohort with older age at presentation, obesity, and idiopathic strictures independent predictors of failure after DVIU. This information is important in counselling patients before surgery.

The influence of gouge defects on failure pressure of steel pipes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alang, N A; Razak, N A; Zulfadli, M R

2013-01-01

Failure pressure of API X42 steel pipes with gouge defects was estimated through a nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis. The effect of gouge length on failure pressure of different pipe diameters was investigated. Stress modified critical strain (SMCS) model was applied as in predicting the failure of the pipe. The model uses strain based criteria to predict the failure. For validation of the model, the FE results were compared to experimental data in literature showing overall good agreement. The results show that the gouge length has significant influence on failure pressure. A smaller pipe diameter gives highest value of failure pressure

The Significance Mild Renal Dysfunction in Chronic Heart Failure ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major public health concern. Prediction models in heart failure have employed echocardiography and other advanced laboratory parameters in predicting the risk of mortality.However, most of the patients in the resource poor economies still do not have easy access to these advanced ...

The study of Influencing Maintenance Factors on Failures of Two gypsum Kilns by Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iraj Alimohammadi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Developing technology and using equipment in Iranian industries caused that maintenance system would be more important to use. Using proper management techniques not only increase the performance of production system but also reduce the failures and costs. The aim of this study was to determine the quality of maintenance system and the effects of its components on failures of kilns in two gypsum production companies using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA. Furthermore the costs of failures were studied. After the study of gypsum production steps in the factories, FMEA was conducted by the determination of analysis insight, information gathering, making list of kilns’ component and filling up the FMEA’s tables. The effects of failures on production, how to fail, failure rate, failure severity, and control measures were studied. The evaluation of maintenance system was studied by a check list including questions related to system components. The costs of failures were determined by refer in accounting notebooks and interview with the head of accounting department. It was found the total qualities of maintenance system in NO.1 was more than NO.2 but because of lower quality of NO.1’s kiln design, number of failures and their costs were more. In addition it was determined that repair costs in NO.2’s kiln were about one third of NO.1’s. The low severity failures caused the most costs in comparison to the moderate and low ones. The technical characteristics of kilns were appeared to be the most important factors in reducing of failures and costs.

Femoral head epiphysis growth and development among Chinese children aged 0-5 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jiayou; Tang, Jin; Zhou, Libo; Zeng, Rong; Mou, Jinsong; Zhang, Lingli

2009-05-01

The aim of this study was to examine the pattern of femoral head epiphysis growth and development among Chinese children. Between January and December, 2007, we randomly sampled 1,450 healthy Chinese children (0-5 years old) from Hunan Provincial Children's Hospital in Changsha, Hunan, China. The diameter of femoral head epiphysis was measured by pelvic X-ray photography and processed by medical image processing software. The growth of femoral head epiphysis in girls was 2-3 months earlier than that in boys. The diameter of femoral head epiphysis increased with advancing age in both girls and boys, but the diameter of femoral head epiphysis in 2, 3, 4, 6, and 10-month-old girls was significantly larger than that in boys. Cubic regression equations between the diameter of femoral head epiphysis and age were created for boys and girls that could be used to predict the diameter of femoral head epiphysis. In conclusion, there was gender difference in femoral head epiphysis growth and development among Chinese children, and our prediction models will provide the guidance for early diagnosis of diseases related to the growth and development of the femoral head epiphysis.

Heading and head injuries in soccer.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkendall, D T; Jordan, S E; Garrett, W E

2001-01-01

In the world of sports, soccer is unique because of the purposeful use of the unprotected head for controlling and advancing the ball. This skill obviously places the player at risk of head injury and the game does carry some risk. Head injury can be a result of contact of the head with another head (or other body parts), ground, goal post, other unknown objects or even the ball. Such impacts can lead to contusions, fractures, eye injuries, concussions or even, in rare cases, death. Coaches, players, parents and physicians are rightly concerned about the risk of head injury in soccer. Current research shows that selected soccer players have some degree of cognitive dysfunction. It is important to determine the reasons behind such deficits. Purposeful heading has been blamed, but a closer look at the studies that focus on heading has revealed methodological concerns that question the validity of blaming purposeful heading of the ball. The player's history and age (did they play when the ball was leather and could absorb significant amounts of water), alcohol intake, drug intake, learning disabilities, concussion definition and control group use/composition are all factors that cloud the ability to blame purposeful heading. What does seem clear is that a player's history of concussive episodes is a more likely explanation for cognitive deficits. While it is likely that the subconcussive impact of purposeful heading is a doubtful factor in the noted deficits, it is unknown whether multiple subconcussive impacts might have some lingering effects. In addition, it is unknown whether the noted deficits have any affect on daily life. Proper instruction in the technique is critical because if the ball contacts an unprepared head (as in accidental head-ball contacts), the potential for serious injury is possible. To further our understanding of the relationship of heading, head injury and cognitive deficits, we need to: learn more about the actual impact of a ball on the

Evaluating the "Threshold Theory": Can Head Impact Indicators Help?

Science.gov (United States)

Mihalik, Jason P; Lynall, Robert C; Wasserman, Erin B; Guskiewicz, Kevin M; Marshall, Stephen W

2017-02-01

This study aimed to determine the clinical utility of biomechanical head impact indicators by measuring the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PV+), and negative predictive value (PV-) of multiple thresholds. Head impact biomechanics (n = 283,348) from 185 football players in one Division I program were collected. A multidisciplinary clinical team independently made concussion diagnoses (n = 24). We dichotomized each impact using diagnosis (yes = 24, no = 283,324) and across a range of plausible impact indicator thresholds (10g increments beginning with a resultant linear head acceleration of 50g and ending with 120g). Some thresholds had adequate sensitivity, specificity, and PV-. All thresholds had low PV+, with the best recorded PV+ less than 0.4% when accounting for all head impacts sustained by our sample. Even when conservatively adjusting the frequency of diagnosed concussions by a factor of 5 to account for unreported/undiagnosed injuries, the PV+ of head impact indicators at any threshold was no greater than 1.94%. Although specificity and PV- appear high, the low PV+ would generate many unnecessary evaluations if these indicators were the sole diagnostic criteria. The clinical diagnostic value of head impact indicators is considerably questioned by these data. Notwithstanding, valid sensor technologies continue to offer objective data that have been used to improve player safety and reduce injury risk.

Risk factors of avascular necrosis of the femoral head and fixation failure in patients with valgus angulated femoral neck fractures over the age of 50 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Hyung Keun; Choi, Ho June; Yang, Kyu Hyun

2016-12-01

The aim of our study was to identify the risk factors for avascular necrosis of the femoral head (AVN) and fixation failure (FF) after screw osteosynthesis in patients with valgus angulated femoral neck fractures. We conducted a retrospective study of 308 patients (mean age, 72.5 years, range, 50-97 years), with a mean follow-up of 21.4 months (range, 12-64 months). The risk for failure in treatment (FIT) associated with patient- and fracture-related factors was evaluated by logistic regression analyses. FIT was identified in 32 cases (10.3%): 22 cases (7.1%) of AVN and 10 cases (3.2%) of FF. Initial valgus tilt>15° (p=0.023), posterior tilt>15° (p=0.012), and screw sliding distance (p=0.037) were significantly associated with FIT. FIT occurred in 7 patients (5.2%) with B1.2.1 fractures and 17 patients (48.6%) with B1.1.2 fractures (p15° (B1.1.2) compared to patients with 15° are reasonable candidates for primary arthroplasty due to high risk of FIT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FDG-PET for prediction of tumour aggressiveness and response to intra-arterial chemotherapy and radiotherapy in head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitagawa, Yoshimasa; Sano, Kazuo; Nakamura, Mikiko; Ogasawara, Toshiyuki; Nishizawa, Sadahiko; Sadato, Norihiro; Yonekura, Yoshiharu

2003-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible usefulness of fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) for predicting tumour aggressiveness and response to intra-arterial chemotherapy (THP-ADM + 5-FU + carboplatin) and radiotherapy in head and neck carcinomas. Twenty patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the head and neck were included in the study. All patients completed the treatment regimen, and each patient underwent two FDG-PET studies, one prior to and one at 4 weeks after the chemoradiotherapy. For the quantitative evaluation of regional FDG uptake in the tumour, standardised uptake values (SUVs) with an uptake period of 50 min were used. The pre-treatment SUV (pre-SUV) and post-treatment SUV (post-SUV) were compared with immunohistologically evaluated tumour proliferative potential (MIB-1 and PCNA), tumour cellularity and other parameters including histological grade, tumour size and stage, clinical response and histological evaluation after therapy. All neoplastic lesions showed high SUVs (mean, 9.75 mg/ml) prior to the treatment, which decreased significantly after the therapy (3.41 mg/ml, P 7 mg/ml) showed residual tumour cells after treatment in 4 out of 15 patients, whereas patients whose lesions showed a low pre-SUV (<7 mg/ml, five patients) were successfully treated. Four out of six tumours with a post-SUV higher than 4 mg/ml had viable tumour cells, whereas all tumours (14/14) with a post-SUV lower than 4 mg/ml showed no viable tumour cells. Computational multivariate analysis using multiple regression revealed four factors (MIB-1 labelling index, cellularity, the number of MIB-1 labelled tumour cells and tumour size grade) contributing to pre-SUV and pre-post SUV (difference between pre-treatment SUV and post-treatment SUV in each patient) with statistical significance. FDG uptake in the tumour might reflect tumour aggressiveness, which is closely related to the proliferative activity and cellularity. Pre

Failure Predictions for VHTR Core Components using a Probabilistic Contiuum Damage Mechanics Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fok, Alex

2013-10-30

The proposed work addresses the key research need for the development of constitutive models and overall failure models for graphite and high temperature structural materials, with the long-term goal being to maximize the design life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). To this end, the capability of a Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) model, which has been used successfully for modeling fracture of virgin graphite, will be extended as a predictive and design tool for the core components of the very high- temperature reactor (VHTR). Specifically, irradiation and environmental effects pertinent to the VHTR will be incorporated into the model to allow fracture of graphite and ceramic components under in-reactor conditions to be modeled explicitly using the finite element method. The model uses a combined stress-based and fracture mechanics-based failure criterion, so it can simulate both the initiation and propagation of cracks. Modern imaging techniques, such as x-ray computed tomography and digital image correlation, will be used during material testing to help define the baseline material damage parameters. Monte Carlo analysis will be performed to address inherent variations in material properties, the aim being to reduce the arbitrariness and uncertainties associated with the current statistical approach. The results can potentially contribute to the current development of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) codes for the design and construction of VHTR core components.

Magnetic force microscopy study on wide adjacent track erasure in perpendicular magnetic write heads

Science.gov (United States)

Ruksasakchai, P.; Saengkaew, K.; Cheowanish, I.; Damrongsak, B.

2017-09-01

We used a phase-contrast magnetic force microscopy (MFM) to observe and analyze the failure of magnetic write heads due to the WATEr problem, which limits the off-track performance. During MFM imaging, the magnetic write head was energized by a DC current. The induced out-of-plane magnetic field was then detected by scanning a MFM probe across the surface of the magnetic write head. MFM images were then mapped with WATEr measured results from a spin stand method. Results showed that WATEr effect can be generated by several factors, i.e. the structure of magnetic domains and walls from material discontinuities and the magnetic field leakage at different locations on magnetic write heads. Understanding WATEr mechanisms is useful for design and process development engineers.

Low head hydro market assessment : main report : vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-03-01

Hydroelectric power is a predictable renewable energy source that produces no greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has low maintenance costs. In addition to river resources, low head hydro is available in sluice gates, irrigation canals, drinking water pressure release valves, and municipal wastewater outfalls. Canada's potential for low head hydro has been estimated at 5000 MW at 2000 different sites across the country. Sites of up to 50 MW have been identified in Ontario and Manitoba. This study performed a market assessment on low head hydro developments. Available and emerging technologies for developing low head hydro were identified. The economics of low head hydro in Canada were explored, and barriers to low head hydro development were identified. Strategies to promote low head hydro development were also explored, and the impact of different incentive types on the low head hydropower market were estimated using a simple economic model. It was concluded that a reduced, streamlined, and standardized environmental assessment process will significantly benefit low head hydro development in Canada. 5 refs., 14 tabs., 17 figs

An analysis of predictive factors for concurrent acute-on-chronic liver failure and hepatorenal syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHEN Yanfang

2015-09-01

Full Text Available ObjectiveTo learn the clinical characteristics of concurrent acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS, and to investigate the predictive factors for HRS in patients with ACLF. MethodsA total of 806 patients with ACLF who were admitted to our hospital from January 2012 to May 2014 were selected and divided into two groups according to the incidence of concurrent HRS. Clinical indices and laboratory test results were analyzed in the two groups, and the multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to figure out independent indices for the prediction of HRS in patients with ACLF. A prediction model was established and the receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model. Comparison of continuous data between the two groups was made by t test, and comparison of categorical data between the two groups was made by χ2 test. ResultsIn all patients with ACLF, 229 had HRS and 577 had no HRS. The univariate logistic regression analysis showed that hepatic encephalopathy, peritonitis, infection, age, cystatin C (Cys-C, serum creatinine (SCr, blood urea nitrogen, albumin, prealbumin, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, total cholesterol, K+, Na+, phosphorus, Ca2+, prothrombin time, prothrombin activity, international normalized ratio, and hematocrit were significant predictive factors for HRS. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that concurrent peritonitis, Cys-C, SCr, and HCO3- were independent predictive factors for HRS in patients with ACLF (OR=3.155, P＜0.01; OR=30.773, P＜0.01; OR=1062, P＜0.01; OR=0.915, P＜0.05. The model was proved of great value in prediction. ConclusionConcurrent peritonitis, Cys-C, SCr, and HCO3- are effective predictive factors for HRS in patients with ACLF.

RSA prediction of high failure rate for the uncoated Interax TKA confirmed by meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pijls, Bart G; Nieuwenhuijse, Marc J; Schoones, Jan W; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; Nelissen, Rob G H H

2012-04-01

In a previous radiostereometric (RSA) trial the uncoated, uncemented, Interax tibial components showed excessive migration within 2 years compared to HA-coated and cemented tibial components. It was predicted that this type of fixation would have a high failure rate. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate whether this RSA prediction was correct. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the revision rate for aseptic loosening of the uncoated and cemented Interax tibial components. 3 studies were included, involving 349 Interax total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) for the comparison of uncoated and cemented fixation. There were 30 revisions: 27 uncoated and 3 cemented components. There was a 3-times higher revision rate for the uncoated Interax components than that for cemented Interax components (OR = 3; 95% CI: 1.4-7.2). This meta-analysis confirms the prediction of a previous RSA trial. The uncoated Interax components showed the highest migration and turned out to have the highest revision rate for aseptic loosening. RSA appears to enable efficient detection of an inferior design as early as 2 years postoperatively in a small group of patients.

Quantification of the effects of VRN1 and Ppd-D1 to predict spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) heading time across diverse environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Bangyou; Biddulph, Ben; Li, Dora; Kuchel, Haydn; Chapman, Scott

2013-09-01

Heading time is a major determinant of the adaptation of wheat to different environments, and is critical in minimizing risks of frost, heat, and drought on reproductive development. Given that major developmental genes are known in wheat, a process-based model, APSIM, was modified to incorporate gene effects into estimation of heading time, while minimizing degradation in the predictive capability of the model. Model parameters describing environment responses were replaced with functions of the number of winter and photoperiod (PPD)-sensitive alleles at the three VRN1 loci and the Ppd-D1 locus, respectively. Two years of vernalization and PPD trials of 210 lines (spring wheats) at a single location were used to estimate the effects of the VRN1 and Ppd-D1 alleles, with validation against 190 trials (~4400 observations) across the Australian wheatbelt. Compared with spring genotypes, winter genotypes for Vrn-A1 (i.e. with two winter alleles) had a delay of 76.8 degree days (°Cd) in time to heading, which was double the effect of the Vrn-B1 or Vrn-D1 winter genotypes. Of the three VRN1 loci, winter alleles at Vrn-B1 had the strongest interaction with PPD, delaying heading time by 99.0 °Cd under long days. The gene-based model had root mean square error of 3.2 and 4.3 d for calibration and validation datasets, respectively. Virtual genotypes were created to examine heading time in comparison with frost and heat events and showed that new longer-season varieties could be heading later (with potential increased yield) when sown early in season. This gene-based model allows breeders to consider how to target gene combinations to current and future production environments using parameters determined from a small set of phenotyping treatments.

Preference Bias of Head Orientation in Choosing between Two Non-durables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroyuki eFunaya

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The goal of this study is to investigate how customers’ gaze, head and body orientations reflect their choices. Although the relationship between human choice and gaze behavior has been well studied, other behaviors such as head and body are unknown. We conducted a two-alternatives-forced-choice task to examine (1 whether preference bias, i.e. a positional bias in gaze, head and body toward the item that was later chosen, exists in choice, (2 when preference bias is observed and when prediction of the resulting choice becomes possible (3 whether human choice is affected when the body orientations are manipulated. We used real non-durable products (cheap snacks and clothing on a shopping shelf. The results showed that there was a significant preference bias in head orientation at the beginning one second when the subjects stood straight toward the shelf, and that the head orientation was more biased toward the selected item than the gaze and the center of pressure at the ending one second. Manipulating body orientation did not affect the result of choice. The preference bias detected by observing the head orientation would be useful in marketing science for predicting customers’ choice.

Preference bias of head orientation in choosing between two non-durables.

Science.gov (United States)

Funaya, Hiroyuki; Shibata, Tomohiro

2015-01-01

The goal of this study is to investigate how customers' gaze, head and body orientations reflect their choices. Although the relationship between human choice and gaze behavior has been well-studied, other behaviors such as head and body are unknown. We conducted a two-alternatives-forced-choice task to examine (1) whether preference bias, i.e., a positional bias in gaze, head and body toward the item that was later chosen, exists in choice, (2) when preference bias is observed and when prediction of the resulting choice becomes possible (3) whether human choice is affected when the body orientations are manipulated. We used real non-durable products (cheap snacks and clothing) on a shopping shelf. The results showed that there was a significant preference bias in head orientation at the beginning 1 s when the subjects stood straight toward the shelf, and that the head orientation was more biased toward the selected item than the gaze and the center of pressure at the ending 1 s. Manipulating body orientation did not affect the result of choice. The preference bias detected by observing the head orientation would be useful in marketing science for predicting customers' choice.

Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

Science.gov (United States)

Khanikar, Prasenjit

Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: short-term results and radiological features predicting stent failure in patients with non-urological malignancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liu, Kao-Lang

2014-06-01

To provide short-term result of the metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction and identify radiological findings predicting stent failure. The records of all patients with non-urological malignant diseases who have received metallic ureteral stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were reviewed. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms and imaging studies. Survival analysis was used to estimate patency rates and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 74 patients with 130 attempts of stent insertion were included. A total of 113 (86.9 %) stents were inserted successfully and 103 (91.2 %) achieved primary patency. After excluding cases without sufficient imaging data, 94 stents were included in the survival analysis. The median functional duration of the 94 stents was 6.2 months (range 3-476 days). Obstruction in abdominal ureter (p = 0.0279) and lymphatic metastasis around ureter (p = 0.0398) were risk factors for stent failure. The median functional durations of the stents for abdominal and pelvic obstructions were 4.5 months (range 3-263 days) and 6.5 months (range 4-476 days), respectively. The median durations of the stents with and without lymphatic metastasis were 5.3 months (range 4-398 days) and 7.8 months (range 31-476 days), respectively. Metallic ureteral stents are effective and safe in relieving ureteral obstructions resulting from non-urological malignancies, and abdominal ureteral obstruction and lymphatic metastasis around ureter were associated with shorter functional duration.

Antithrombin III is associated with acute liver failure in patients with end-stage heart failure undergoing mechanical circulatory support.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoefer, Judith; Ulmer, Hanno; Kilo, Juliane; Margreiter, Raimund; Grimm, Michael; Mair, Peter; Ruttmann, Elfriede

2017-06-01

There are few data on the role of liver dysfunction in patients with end-stage heart failure supported by mechanical circulatory support. The aim of our study was to investigate predictors for acute liver failure in patients with end-stage heart failure undergoing mechanical circulatory support. A consecutive 164 patients with heart failure with New York Heart Association class IV undergoing mechanical circulatory support were investigated for acute liver failure using the King's College criteria. Clinical characteristics of heart failure together with hemodynamic and laboratory values were analyzed by logistic regression. A total of 45 patients (27.4%) with heart failure developed subsequent acute liver failure with a hospital mortality of 88.9%. Duration of heart failure, cause, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, use of vasopressors, central venous pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, pulmonary pulsatility index, cardiac index, and transaminases were not significantly associated with acute liver failure. Repeated decompensation, atrial fibrillation (P failure in univariate analysis only. In multivariable analysis, decreased antithrombin III was the strongest single measurement indicating acute liver failure (relative risk per %, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.93; P = .001) and remained an independent predictor when adjustment for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was performed (relative risk per %, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.99; P = .031). Antithrombin III less than 59.5% was identified as a cutoff value to predict acute liver failure with a corresponding sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 87%. In addition to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, decreased antithrombin III activity tends to be superior in predicting acute liver failure compared with traditionally thought predictors. Antithrombin III measurement may help to identify patients more precisely who are developing acute liver failure during mechanical

Cannabis use predicts risks of heart failure and cerebrovascular accidents: results from the National Inpatient Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalla, Aditi; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram M; Gopalakrishnan, Akshaya; Figueredo, Vincent M

2018-06-06

Cannabis for medicinal and/or recreational purposes has been decriminalized in 28 states as of the 2016 election. In the remaining states, cannabis remains the most commonly used illicit drug. Cardiovascular effects of cannabis use are not well established due to a limited number of studies. We therefore utilized a large national database to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and events amongst patients with cannabis use. Patients aged 18-55 years with cannabis use were identified in the National Inpatient Sample 2009-2010 database using the Ninth Revision of International Classification of Disease code 304.3. Demographics, risk factors, and cardiovascular event rates were collected on these patients and compared with general population data. Prevalence of heart failure, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), coronary artery disease, sudden cardiac death, and hypertension were significantly higher in patients with cannabis use. After multivariate regression adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, tobacco use, and alcohol use, cannabis use remained an independent predictor of both heart failure (odds ratio = 1.1, 1.03-1.18, P < 0.01) and CVA (odds ratio = 1.24, 1.14-1.34, P < 0.001). Cannabis use independently predicted the risks of heart failure and CVA in individuals 18-55 years old. With continued legalization of cannabis, potential cardiovascular effects and their underlying mechanisms need to be further investigated.

Coupled thermo-mechanical creep analysis for boiling water reactor pressure vessel lower head

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villanueva, Walter; Tran, Chi-Thanh; Kudinov, Pavel

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We consider a severe accident in a BWR with melt pool formation in the lower head. ► We study the influence of pool depth on vessel failure mode with creep analysis. ► There are two modes of failure; ballooning of vessel bottom and a localized creep. ► External vessel cooling can suppress creep and subsequently prevent vessel failure. - Abstract: In this paper we consider a hypothetical severe accident in a Nordic-type boiling water reactor (BWR) at the stage of relocation of molten core materials to the lower head and subsequent debris bed and then melt pool formation. Nordic BWRs rely on reactor cavity flooding as a means for ex-vessel melt coolability and ultimate termination of the accident progression. However, different modes of vessel failure may result in different regimes of melt release from the vessel, which determine initial conditions for melt coolant interaction and eventually coolability of the debris bed. The goal of this study is to define if retention of decay-heated melt inside the reactor pressure vessel is possible and investigate modes of the vessel wall failure otherwise. The mode of failure is contingent upon the ultimate mechanical strength of the vessel structures under given mechanical and thermal loads and applied cooling measures. The influence of pool depth and respective transient thermal loads on the reactor vessel failure mode is studied with coupled thermo-mechanical creep analysis. Efficacy of control rod guide tube (CRGT) cooling and external vessel wall cooling as potential severe accident management measures is investigated. First, only CRGT cooling is considered in simulations revealing two different modes of vessel failure: (i) a ‘ballooning’ of the vessel bottom and (ii) a ‘localized creep’ concentrated within the vicinity of the top surface of the melt pool. Second, possibility of in-vessel retention with CRGT and external vessel cooling is investigated. We found that the external vessel

A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score.

Science.gov (United States)

Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza

2017-06-01

Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

Verification tests for GRAD, a computer program to predict nonuniform deformation and failure of Zr-2.5 wt percent Nb pressure tubes during a postulated loss-of-coolant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shewfelt, R.S.W.; Godin, D.P.

1985-03-01

During a postulated loss-of-coolant accident in a CANDU reactor, the temperature of the pressure tubes could rise sufficiently so that ballooning could occur. It is also likely that there would be a variation in temperature around the tube circumference, causing the deformation to be nonuniform. Since the deformation of the pressure tube controls how the core heat is transferred to the surrounding moderator, which is a large heat sink, a computer program, GRAD, has been developed to predict this nonuniform deformation. Numerous biaxial creep tests were done, where the temperature of internally pressurized sections of Zr-2.5 wt percent Nb pressure tubes were ramped to check the ability of GRAD to predict the resulting nonuniform deformation and possible tube failure. GRAD was successful in predicting the average transverse creep strain observed during the tests and the local transverse creep strain at the end of the tests. GRAD was also able to predict the failure time and average transverse creep strain at failure for all the specimens that failed

Predictive factors for early failure of transarterial embolization in blunt hepatic injury patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y.-H.; Wu, C.-H.; Wang, L.-J.; Wong, Y.-C.; Chen, H.-W.; Wang, C.-J.; Lin, B.-C.; Hsu, Y.-P.

2014-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the early success of transarterial embolization (TAE) in patients with traumatic liver haemorrhage and to determine independent factors for its failure. Materials and methods: From January 2009 to December 2012, TAE was performed in 48 patients for traumatic liver haemorrhage. Their medical charts were reviewed for demographic information, pre-TAE vital signs and laboratory data, injury grade, type of contrast medium extravasation (CME) at CT, angiography findings, and early failure. “Early failure” was defined as the need for repeated TAE or a laparotomy for hepatic haemorrhage within 4 days after TAE. Variables were compared between the early success and early failure groups. Variables with univariate significance were also analysed using multivariate logistic regression for predictors of early failure. Results: Among 48 liver TAE cases, nine (18.8%) were early failures due to liver haemorrhage. Early failure was associated with injury grade (p = 0.039), major liver injury (grades 4 and 5; p = 0.007), multiple CMEs at angiography (p = 0.031), incomplete TAE (p = 0.002), and elevated heart rate (p = 0.026). Incomplete embolization (OR = 8; p = 0.042), and heart rate >110 beats/min (bpm; OR = 8; p = 0.05) were independent factors for early failure of TAE in the group with major liver injuries. Conclusion: Major hepatic injury is an important factor in early failure. Patients with a heart rate >110 bpm and incomplete embolization in the major injury group have an increased rate of early failure. The success rate of proximal TAE was comparable to that of the more time-consuming, superselective, distal TAE. - Highlights: • Early failure of TAE is associated with a higher grade of liver injury. • Incomplete embolization is more likely to suffer early failure of TAE. • A heart rate greater than 110 bpm is more likely to suffer early failure of TAE. • We recommend proximal embolization to prevent early failure of TAE

Predicting the success of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation in emergency room for patients with acute heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirakabe, Akihiro; Hata, Noritake; Yokoyama, Shinya; Shinada, Takuro; Kobayashi, Nobuaki; Tomita, Kazunori; Kitamura, Mitsunobu; Nozaki, Ayaka; Tokuyama, Hideo; Asai, Kuniya; Mizuno, Kyoichi

2011-01-01

Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) for acute heart failure (AHF) is increasingly used to avoid endotracheal intubation (ETI). We therefore reviewed our experience using respirator management in the emergency room for AHF, and evaluated the predictive factors in the success of NPPV in the emergency room. Three-hundred forty-three patients with AHF were analyzed. The AHF patients were assigned to either BiPAP-Synchrony (B-S; Respironics, Merrysville, PA, USA) period (2005-2007, n = 176) or BiPAP-Vision (B-V; Respironics) period (2008-2010, n = 167). The rate of carperitide use was significantly increased and dopamine use was significantly decreased in the B-V period. The total length of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the B-V period. AHF patients were also assigned to a failed trial of NPPV followed by ETI (NPPV failure group) or an NPPV success group in the emergency room for each period. NPPV was successfully used in 48 cases in the B-S period, and in 111 cases in the B-V period. Fifty-seven ETI patients included 45 direct ETI and 11 NPPV failure cases in the B-S period, and 16 ETI patients included 10 direct ETI and 6 NPPV failure cases in the B-V period. The pH values were significantly lower in the NPPV failure than in the NPPV success for both periods (7.19 ± 0.10 vs. 7.28 ± 0.11, B-S period, p successful estimates of NPPV with a high sensitivity and specificity, and the aortic blood gas level was above 7.03 pH when using the B-V system. Copyright © 2011 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanical properties and examination of cracking in TMI-2 pressure vessel lower head material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diercks, D.R.; Neimark, L.A.

1993-09-01

Mechanical tests have been conducted on material from 15 samples removed from the lower head of the Three Mile Island unit 2 nuclear reactor pressure vessel. Measured properties include tensile properties and hardness profiles at room temperature, tensile and creep properties at temperatures of 600 to 1200 degrees C, and Charpy V-notch impact properties at -20 to +300 degrees C. These data, which were used in the subsequent analyses of the margin-to-failure of the lower head during the accident, are presented here. In addition, the results of metallographic and scanning electron microscope examinations of cladding cracking in three of the lower head samples are discussed

Seismic ratchet-fatigue failure of piping systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Severud, L.K.; Anderson, M.J.; Lindquist, M.R.; Weiner, E.O.

1987-01-01

Failures of piping systems during earthquakes have been rare. Those that have failed were either made of brittle material such as cast iron, were rigid systems between major components where component relative seismic motions tore the pipe out of the component, or were high pressure systems where a ratchet-fatigue fracture followed a local bulging of the pipe diameter. Tests to failure of an unpressurized 3-inch and a pressurized 6-inch diameter carbon steel nuclear pipe systems subjected to high-level shaking have been accomplished. The high-level shaking loads needed to cause failure were much higher than ASME Code rules would permit with present design limits. Failure analyses of these tests are presented and correlated to the test results. It was found that failure of the unpressurized system could be correlated well with standard ASME type fatigue analysis predictions. Moreover, the pressurized system failure occured in significantly less load cycles than predicted by standard fatigue analysis. However, a ratchet-fatigue and ductility exhaustion analysis of the pressurized system did correlate reasonably well. These findings indicate modifications to design analysis methods and the present ASME Code piping design rules to reduce unneeded conservatisms and to cover the ratchet-fatigue failure mode may be appropriate

Accuracy of a heart failure diagnosis in administrative registers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kümler, Thomas; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Kirk, Vibeke

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The incidence of heart failure is frequently reported using hospital discharge diagnoses. The specificity of a diagnosis has been shown to be high but the sensitivity of a reported diagnosis is unknown. PURPOSE: To study the accuracy of a heart failure diagnosis reported to the Danish...... a specificity of 99% and a sensitivity of 29% for all patients. The positive predictive value was 81%, the negative predictive value 90%. CONCLUSION: The diagnosis of Heart Failure in the Danish National Registers is underreported, but very specific....

Relationship between respiratory failure and plasma noradrenaline levels in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamashita, A; Koike, Y; Takahashi, A; Hirayama, M; Murakami, N; Sobue, G

1997-08-01

We evaluated plasma noradrenaline (NA) levels at test and during head-up tilt test in 20 patients with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Their fasting plasma NA levels ranged from 195 to 4227 pg/ml. The average plasma NA level was 483 pg/ml in five ambulatory patients, 341 in two wheelchair-bound patients, 1264 in 11 bedridden patients, and 208 in two respirator-dependent patients whose disability grading was the worst among the four groups. Arterial carbon dioxide (PCO2) was evaluated as a measure of respiratory function. The coefficient of correlation between PCO2 and plasma NA was r = 0.654 (p respiratory failure or lower motor neuron dysfunction may relate to the elevation of plasma NA levels. In the two bedridden patients, plasma NA levels and heart rate at rest increased significantly as the disease progressed. Cardiovascular responses to head-up tilting were normal. These data suggest that the elevation of plasma NA levels may be related to progression of respiratory failure and lower motor neuron dysfunction. In conclusion, sympathetic hyperactivity in ALS is considered to be not primary, but secondary to somatic motor disabilities and respiratory failure.

Plasma copeptin levels and prediction of outcome in heart failure outpatients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balling, Louise; Kistorp, Caroline; Schou, Morten

2012-01-01

Copeptin, a stable fragment of the vasopressin prohormone, has been shown to be a significant biomarker for morbidity and mortality in heart failure. The aims of this study were to evaluate the influence of plasma sodium on the prognostic significance of copeptin concentrations in heart failure o...