WorldWideScience

Sample records for hci-swwa ipw jtres

  1. [Inverse probability weighting (IPW) for evaluating and "correcting" selection bias].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narduzzi, Silvia; Golini, Martina Nicole; Porta, Daniela; Stafoggia, Massimo; Forastiere, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    the Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is a methodology developed to account for missingness and selection bias caused by non-randomselection of observations, or non-random lack of some information in a subgroup of the population. to provide an overview of IPW methodology and an application in a cohort study of the association between exposure to traffic air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂) and 7-year children IQ. this methodology allows to correct the analysis by weighting the observations with the probability of being selected. The IPW is based on the assumption that individual information that can predict the probability of inclusion (non-missingness) are available for the entire study population, so that, after taking account of them, we can make inferences about the entire target population starting from the nonmissing observations alone.The procedure for the calculation is the following: firstly, we consider the entire population at study and calculate the probability of non-missing information using a logistic regression model, where the response is the nonmissingness and the covariates are its possible predictors.The weight of each subject is given by the inverse of the predicted probability. Then the analysis is performed only on the non-missing observations using a weighted model. IPW is a technique that allows to embed the selection process in the analysis of the estimates, but its effectiveness in "correcting" the selection bias depends on the availability of enough information, for the entire population, to predict the non-missingness probability. In the example proposed, the IPW application showed that the effect of exposure to NO2 on the area of verbal intelligence quotient of children is stronger than the effect showed from the analysis performed without regard to the selection processes.

  2. ipw: An R Package for Inverse Probability Weighting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald B. Geskus

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe the R package ipw for estimating inverse probability weights. We show how to use the package to fit marginal structural models through inverse probability weighting, to estimate causal effects. Our package can be used with data from a point treatment situation as well as with a time-varying exposure and time-varying confounders. It can be used with binomial, categorical, ordinal and continuous exposure variables.

  3. Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW) data set measures atmospheric water vapor using ground-based...

  4. GPS IPW as a Meteorological Parameter and Climate Global Change Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruczyk, M.; Liwosz, T.

    2011-12-01

    Paper focuses on comprehensive investigation of the GPS derived IPW (Integrated Precipitable Water, also IWV) as a geophysical tool. GPS meteorology is now widely acknowledged indirect method of atmosphere sensing. First we demonstrate GPS IPW quality. Most thorough inter-technique comparisons of directly measured IPW are attainable only for some observatories (note modest percentage of GPS stations equipped with meteorological devices). Nonetheless we have managed to compare IPW series derived from GPS tropospheric solutions (ZTD mostly from IGS and EPN solutions) and some independent techniques. IPW values from meteorological sources we used are: radiosoundings, sun photometer and input fields of numerical weather prediction model. We can treat operational NWP models as meteorological database within which we can calculate IWV for all GPS stations independently from network of direct measurements (COSMO-LM model maintained by Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management was tried). Sunphotometer (CIMEL-318, Central Geophysical Observatory IGF PAS, Belsk, Poland) data seems the most genuine source - so we decided for direct collocation of GPS measurements and sunphotometer placing permanent GPS receiver on the roof of Belsk Observatory. Next we analyse IPW as geophysical parameter: IPW demonstrates some physical effects evoked by station location (height and series correlation coefficient as a function of distance) and weather patterns like dominant wind directions (in case of neighbouring stations). Deficiency of surface humidity data to model IPW is presented for different climates. This inadequacy and poor humidity data representation in NWP model extremely encourages investigating information exchange potential between Numerical Model and GPS network. The second and most important aspect of this study concerns long series of IPW (daily averaged) which can serve as climatological information indicator (water vapour role in climate system is hard to

  5. Persistent organic pollutants monitoring in marine coastal environment using beached plastic resin pellets and effective risk communication via International Pellet Watch (IPW) as a tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, B. G. M.; Takada, H.; Hosoda, J.

    2014-12-01

    International Pellet Watch (IPW) is an ongoing global monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) using preproduction plastic resin pellets. These pellets are easily collected and transported allowing the general public worldwide to get involved. Thus, risk communication toward the pellet collectors is a significant part of IPW to ensure continuous effort and interest. The pellet samples were analyzed for polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and degradation products (DDTs), and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs). Additional pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Hopanes were also analyzed for some samples. Analytical results showed distinct patterns with high concentrations (ban in the late 1980's. Pesticide DDTs instead were found to be higher in developing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam (> 500ng/g-pellet). These countries may still be using DDTs as a vector control mostly to combat malaria. High concentrations of DDTs were also found in Greece, China and Australia (> 100ng/g-pellet) suggesting the possibility of illegal usage as pesticide or anti fouling paint. HCHs concentrations were mostly low due to its low retention in the environment. However, high HCHs concentrations were mostly found in the southern hemisphere. Very high concentration of PAHs in pellet samples can be utilized for early identification of recent oil pollution. High PAHs concentration in Tauranga, New Zealand was found to be caused by local oil spill. Hopanes in pellets can be used for source identification of oil pollution. Global mapping and comparison among IPW data can be used to provide better explanations to IPW volunteers by sorting concentrations into pollution categories. Communication reports are tailor written based on the volunteers familiarity to IPW's issues, educational background, occupation and their potential to further spread awareness. Based on feedbacks, the volunteers were grateful to receive reports of their

  6. A model-driven approach to designing cross-enterprise business processes

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Bernhard (Prof.)

    2004-01-01

    A model-driven approach to designing cross-enterprise business processes / Bernhard Bauer, Jörg P. Müller, Stephan Roser. - In: On the move to meaningful internet systems 2004: OTM 2004 workshops : OTM Confederated International Workshops and Posters, GADA, JTRES, MIOS, WORM, WOSE, PhDS, and INTEROP 2004, Agia Napa, Cyprus, October 25 - 29, 2004 ; proceedings / Robert Meersman ... (eds.). - Berlin u.a. : Springer, 2004. - S. 544-555. - (Lecture Notes in Computer Science ; 3292)

  7. A comparison of entropy balance and probability weighting methods to generalize observational cohorts to a population: a simulation and empirical example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Raymond A; Hayden, Jennifer D; Kamble, Pravin S; Bouchard, Jonathan R; Huang, Joanna C

    2017-04-01

    We compared methods to control bias and confounding in observational studies including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and stabilized IPW (sIPW). These methods often require iteration and post-calibration to achieve covariate balance. In comparison, entropy balance (EB) optimizes covariate balance a priori by calibrating weights using the target's moments as constraints. We measured covariate balance empirically and by simulation by using absolute standardized mean difference (ASMD), absolute bias (AB), and root mean square error (RMSE), investigating two scenarios: the size of the observed (exposed) cohort exceeds the target (unexposed) cohort and vice versa. The empirical application weighted a commercial health plan cohort to a nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey target on the same covariates and compared average total health care cost estimates across methods. Entropy balance alone achieved balance (ASMD ≤ 0.10) on all covariates in simulation and empirically. In simulation scenario I, EB achieved the lowest AB and RMSE (13.64, 31.19) compared with IPW (263.05, 263.99) and sIPW (319.91, 320.71). In scenario II, EB outperformed IPW and sIPW with smaller AB and RMSE. In scenarios I and II, EB achieved the lowest mean estimate difference from the simulated population outcome ($490.05, $487.62) compared with IPW and sIPW, respectively. Empirically, only EB differed from the unweighted mean cost indicating IPW, and sIPW weighting was ineffective. Entropy balance demonstrated the bias-variance tradeoff achieving higher estimate accuracy, yet lower estimate precision, compared with IPW methods. EB weighting required no post-processing and effectively mitigated observed bias and confounding. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Assessing mediation using marginal structural models in the presence of confounding and moderation

    OpenAIRE

    Coffman, Donna L.; Zhong, Wei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW can be used to take confounding into account, but IPW has several advantages. Regression adjustment of even one confounder of the mediator and ou...

  9. Intelligent power wheelchair use in long-term care: potential users' experiences and perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushton, Paula W; Mortenson, Ben W; Viswanathan, Pooja; Wang, Rosalie H; Miller, William C; Hurd Clarke, Laura

    2017-10-01

    Long-term care (LTC) residents with cognitive impairments frequently experience limited mobility and participation in preferred activities. Although a power wheelchair could mitigate some of these mobility and participation challenges, this technology is often not prescribed for this population due to safety concerns. An intelligent power wheelchair (IPW) system represents a potential intervention that could help to overcome these concerns. The purpose of this study was to explore a) how residents experienced an IPW that used three different modes of control and b) what perceived effect the IPW would have on their daily lives. We interviewed 10 LTC residents with mild or moderate cognitive impairment twice, once before and once after testing the IPW. Interviews were conducted using a semi-structured interview guide, audio recorded and transcribed verbatim for thematic analyses. Our analyses identified three overarching themes: (1) the difference an IPW would make, (2) the potential impact of the IPW on others and (3) IPW-related concerns. Findings from this study confirm the need for and potential benefits of IPW use in LTC. Future studies will involve testing IPW improvements based on feedback and insights from this study. Implications for rehabilitation Intelligent power wheelchairs may enhance participation and improve safety and feelings of well-being for long-term care residents with cognitive impairments. Intelligent power wheelchairs could potentially have an equally positive impact on facility staff, other residents, and family and friends by decreasing workload and increasing safety.

  10. Long Series of GNSS Integrated Precipitable Water as a Climate Change Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kruczyk Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates information potential contained in tropospheric delay product for selected International GNSS Service (IGS stations in climatologic research. Long time series of daily averaged Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW can serve as climate indicator. The seasonal model of IPW change has been adjusted to the multi-year series (by the least square method. Author applied two modes: sinusoidal and composite (two or more oscillations. Even simple sinusoidal seasonal model (of daily IPW values series clearly represents diversity of world climates. Residuals in periods from 10 up to 17 years are searched for some long-term IPW trend – self-evident climate change indicator. Results are ambiguous: for some stations or periods IPW trends are quite clear, the following years (or the other station not visible. Method of fitting linear trend to IPW series does not influence considerably the value of linear trend. The results are mostly influenced by series length, completeness and data (e.g. meteorological quality. The longer and more homogenous IPW series, the better chance to estimate the magnitude of climatologic IPW changes.

  11. Assessing effects of cholera vaccination in the presence of interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Hudgens, Michael G; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Clemens, John D; Ali, Mohammad; Emch, Michael E

    2014-09-01

    Interference occurs when the treatment of one person affects the outcome of another. For example, in infectious diseases, whether one individual is vaccinated may affect whether another individual becomes infected or develops disease. Quantifying such indirect (or spillover) effects of vaccination could have important public health or policy implications. In this article we use recently developed inverse-probability weighted (IPW) estimators of treatment effects in the presence of interference to analyze an individually-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of cholera vaccination that targeted 121,982 individuals in Matlab, Bangladesh. Because these IPW estimators have not been employed previously, a simulation study was also conducted to assess the empirical behavior of the estimators in settings similar to the cholera vaccine trial. Simulation study results demonstrate the IPW estimators can yield unbiased estimates of the direct, indirect, total, and overall effects of vaccination when there is interference provided the untestable no unmeasured confounders assumption holds and the group-level propensity score model is correctly specified. Application of the IPW estimators to the cholera vaccine trial indicates the presence of interference. For example, the IPW estimates suggest on average 5.29 fewer cases of cholera per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval 2.61, 7.96) will occur among unvaccinated individuals within neighborhoods with 60% vaccine coverage compared to neighborhoods with 32% coverage. Our analysis also demonstrates how not accounting for interference can render misleading conclusions about the public health utility of vaccination. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Assessment of a Technique for Estimating Total Column Water Vapor Using Measurements of the Infrared Sky Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merceret, Francis J.; Huddleston, Lisa L.

    2014-01-01

    A method for estimating the integrated precipitable water (IPW) content of the atmosphere using measurements of indicated infrared zenith sky temperature was validated over east-central Florida. The method uses inexpensive, commercial off the shelf, hand-held infrared thermometers (IRT). Two such IRTs were obtained from a commercial vendor, calibrated against several laboratory reference sources at KSC, and used to make IR zenith sky temperature measurements in the vicinity of KSC and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The calibration and comparison data showed that these inexpensive IRTs provided reliable, stable IR temperature measurements that were well correlated with the NOAA IPW observations.

  13. Results of the Austrian CT dose study 2010. Typical effective doses of the most frequent CT examinations; Ergebnisse der Oesterreichischen CT-Dosisstudie 2010. Effektive Dosen der haeufigsten CT-Untersuchungen und Unterschiede zwischen Anwendern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homolka, Peter; Leithner, Robert; Billinger, Jochen [Medizinische Universitaet Wien (Austria). Zentrum fuer Medizinische Physik und Biomedizinische Technik; Gruber, Michael [Medizinische Universitaet Wien (Austria). Universitaetsklinik fuer Radiologie und Nuklearmedizin

    2014-10-01

    Purpose: To determine typical doses from common CT examinations of standard sized adult patients and their variability between CT operators for common CT indications. Materials and Methods: In a nationwide Austrian CT dose survey doses from approx. 10,000 common CT examinations of adults during 2009 and 2010 were collected and 'typical' radiation doses to the 'average patient', which turned out to have 75.6 kg body mass, calculated. Conversion coefficients from DLP to effective dose were determined and effective doses calculated according to ICRP 103. Variations of typically applied doses to the 'average patient' were expressed as ratios between 90{sup th} and 10{sup th} percentile (inter-percentile width, IPW90/10), 1st and 3{sup rd} quartile (IPW75/25), and Maximum/Minimum. Results: Median effective doses to the average patients for standard head and neck scans were 1.8 mSv (cervical spine), 1.9 mSv (brain: trauma/bleeding, stroke) to 2.2 mSv (brain: masses) with typical variation between facilities of a factor 2.5 (IPW90/10) and 1.7 (IPW75/25). In the thorax region doses were 6.4 to 6.8 mSv (pulmonary embolism, pneumonia and inflammation, oncologic scans), the variation between facilities was by a factor of 2.1 (IPW90/10) and 1.5 (IPW75/25), respectively. In the abdominal region median effective doses from 6.5 mSv (kidney stone search) to 22 mSv (liver lesions) were found (acute abdomen, staging/metastases, lumbar spine: 9-12 mSv; oncologic abdomen plus chest 16 mSv; renal tumor 20 mSv). Variation factors between facilities were on average for abdominal scans 2.7 (IPW90/10) and 1.8 (IPW75/25). Conclusion: Variations between CT operators are generally moderate for most operators, but in some indications the ratio between the minimum and the maximum of average dose to the typical standard patients exceeds a factor of 4 or even 5. Therefore, comparing average doses to Diagnostic Reference Levels (DRLs) and optimizing protocols need to

  14. GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Angelyn W.; Gutman, Seth I.; Holub, Kirk; Bock, Yehuda; Danielson, David; Laber, Jayme; Small, Ivory

    2013-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology provides enhanced density, low-latency (30-min resolution), integrated precipitable water (IPW) estimates to NOAA NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration Nat ional Weather Service) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to provide improved model and satellite data verification capability and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather such as flooding. An early activity of this project was to increase the number of stations contributing to the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GPS meteorology observing network in Southern California by about 27 stations. Following this, the Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego WFOs began using the enhanced GPS-based IPW measurements provided by ESRL in the 2012 and 2013 monsoon seasons. Forecasters found GPS IPW to be an effective tool in evaluating model performance, and in monitoring monsoon development between weather model runs for improved flood forecasting. GPS stations are multi-purpose, and routine processing for position solutions also yields estimates of tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV (precipitable water vapor) using in situ pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology. NOAA ESRL has implemented this concept with a nationwide distribution of more than 300 "GPSMet" stations providing IPW estimates at sub-hourly resolution currently used in operational weather models in the U.S.

  15. Assessing Mediation Using Marginal Structural Models in the Presence of Confounding and Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffman, Donna L.; Zhong, Wei

    2012-01-01

    This article presents marginal structural models with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW…

  16. Armor Plate Ballistic Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1944-08-02

    inclusi ~ve 1 75 mm AP m72 Over 3 1/41." to 4." inclusive 90 AP477 Over 4"to řŕ inclusives 𔃻 8.20. ’W+ +1 ~ 1 U 1 ¶ W1 W" W ’ "•’• ’• 1 Ip.W, ’rTI

  17. Generation and Micro-scale Effects of Electrostatic Waves in an Oblique Shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, K.; Ergun, R.; Schwartz, S. J.; Newman, D.; Johlander, A.; Argall, M. R.; Wilder, F. D.; Torbert, R. B.; Khotyaintsev, Y. V.; Lindqvist, P. A.; Strangeway, R. J.; Russell, C. T.; Giles, B. L.; Gershman, D. J.; Burch, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    We present an analysis of large amplitude (>100 mV/m), high frequency (≤1 kHz), electrostatic waves observed by MMS during an oblique bow shock crossing event. The observed waves primarily consist of electrostatic solitary waves (ESWs) and oblique ion plasma waves (IPWs). ESWs typically include nonlinear structures such as double layers, ion phase-space holes, and electron phase-space holes. Oblique IPWs are observed to be similar to ion acoustic waves, but can propagate up to 70° from the ambient magnetic field direction. Both wave-modes, particularly IPWs, are observed to have very short wavelengths ( 100 m) and are highly localized. While such wave-modes have been previously observed in the terrestrial bow shock, instrumental constraints have limited detailed insight into their generation and their effect on their plasma shock environment. Analysis of this oblique shock event shows evidence that ESWs and oblique IPWs can be generated through field-aligned currents associated with magnetic turbulence and through a counterstreaming ion instability respectively. We also present evidence that this wave activity can facilitate momentum exchange between ion populations, resulting in deceleration of incoming solar wind, and localized electron heating.

  18. POPs monitoring in Australia and New Zealand using plastic resin pellets, and International Pellet Watch as a tool for education and raising public awareness on plastic debris and POPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Bee Geok; Takada, Hideshige; Taylor, Heidi; Ito, Maki; Hosoda, Junki; Allinson, Mayumi; Connell, Sharnie; Greaves, Laura; McGrath, John

    2015-12-15

    Persistent organic pollutants (i.e. PCBs, DDTs, and HCHs) were analyzed along Australia and New Zealand North Island coastlines. PCB concentrations were high in urban areas (107-294 ng/g-pellet), with Sydney Harbour the most polluted. Hepta-chlorinated PCB was abundant, with ~30% in urban areas suggesting legacy pollution. DDT concentrations showed similar pattern except in rural agricultural sites, Taupo Bay and Ahipara, New Zealand (23 and 47 ng/g-pellet). p,p'-DDE predominance at these 2 sites suggested historical input; they also had high HCH concentrations (17 and 29 ng/g-pellet). The role of International Pellet Watch (IPW) in science communication was studied through feedbacks from IPW volunteers, case studies and examples. IPW data were categorized into understandable terms and tailored reports based on volunteers' backgrounds complemented with pollution maps. The effectiveness of IPW science communication has led to its use in awareness and education activities focusing on both POPs and plastic debris issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analyzing the Interprofessional Working of a Home-Based Primary Care Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Carrier, Tracy; Neysmith, Sheila

    2014-09-01

    Increasingly, interprofessional teams are responsible for providing integrated health care services. Effective teams, however, are not the result of chance but require careful planning and ongoing attention to team processes. Based on a case study involving interviews, participant observation, and a survey, we identified key attributes for effective interprofessional working (IPW) within a home-based primary care (HBPC) setting. Recognizing the importance of a theoretical model that reflects the multidimensional nature of team effectiveness research, we employed the integrated team effectiveness model to analyze our findings. The results indicated that a shared vision, common goals, respect, and trust among team members – as well as processes for ongoing communication, effective leadership, and mechanisms for conflict resolution – are vital in the development of a high-functioning IPW team. The ambiguity and uncertainty surrounding the context of service provision (clients' homes), as well the negotiation of external relationships in the HBPC field, require further investigation.

  20. Faktor-faktor yang Berhubungan dengan Stres Kerja pada Anggota Polisi Satuan Reserse Kriminal Polres Blora

    OpenAIRE

    Bayuwega, Handi Gupita; Wahyuni, Ida; Kurniawan, Bina

    2016-01-01

    Occupational stress is a someone responds, either physically or mentally toward the changing in environment that distrurb and affected a person in threat. The threat that can occurs through working as a police, for example workload and salary dissatisfication. According to Indonesia Police Watch (IPW) Data showed that dozens of police commited suicide from 2011 until 2015. The result of research by National Police Headquarter concluded that 80% of criminal detective and traffic police officer...

  1. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Hopanes in Plastic Resin Pellets as Markers of Oil Pollution via International Pellet Watch Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Bee Geok; Takada, Hideshige; Hosoda, Junki; Kondo, Atsuko; Yamashita, Rei; Saha, Mahua; Maes, Thomas

    2017-08-01

    Oil pollution in the marine environment is an unavoidable problem due to chronic input from local sources, particularly in urban areas and oil spills. Oil pollution not only causes immediate physical damages to surrounding wildlife but also some components, including higher molecular weight PAHs, can persist in the environment for many years and pose insidious threats to the ecosystem. Long-term and nontargeted monitoring of oil pollution is important. This paper examines the ability of International Pellet Watch (IPW) for initial identification and monitoring of oil pollution by analysing PAHs and hopanes in plastic pellet samples collected globally by volunteers. PAH concentrations with the sum of 28 parent and methyl PAHs vary geographically, ranging from 0.035 to 24.4 µg/g-pellet, in line with the presence or absence of local oil pollution sources, such as oil refineries or oil spill sites. This suggests that PAHs can be used to monitor petroleum pollution in IPW. A colour-coded categorization for PAH concentrations within IPW monitoring also is established to facilitate data presentation and understanding. PAH concentrations are generally higher in Western Europe, especially around the North Sea shorelines, moderate in East Asia and North America, and lower in South East Asia, Oceania, South America, and Africa. Hopane concentrations, with a smaller spatial variation (1.7-101 µg/g-pellet), showed no spatial pattern. This result and the poor correlation between hopanes and PAHs suggest that hopane concentrations alone are unsuited to identify petroleum pollution. However, hopane compositions can be used for fingerprinting sources of oil pollution. Thus, both PAHs and hopanes in IPW allow for low cost, remote monitoring of global oil pollution.

  2. Inverse probability weighting in STI/HIV prevention research: methods for evaluating social and community interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippman, Sheri A.; Shade, Starley B.; Hubbard, Alan E.

    2011-01-01

    Background Intervention effects estimated from non-randomized intervention studies are plagued by biases, yet social or structural intervention studies are rarely randomized. There are underutilized statistical methods available to mitigate biases due to self-selection, missing data, and confounding in longitudinal, observational data permitting estimation of causal effects. We demonstrate the use of Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) to evaluate the effect of participating in a combined clinical and social STI/HIV prevention intervention on reduction of incident chlamydia and gonorrhea infections among sex workers in Brazil. Methods We demonstrate the step-by-step use of IPW, including presentation of the theoretical background, data set up, model selection for weighting, application of weights, estimation of effects using varied modeling procedures, and discussion of assumptions for use of IPW. Results 420 sex workers contributed data on 840 incident chlamydia and gonorrhea infections. Participators were compared to non-participators following application of inverse probability weights to correct for differences in covariate patterns between exposed and unexposed participants and between those who remained in the intervention and those who were lost-to-follow-up. Estimators using four model selection procedures provided estimates of intervention effect between odds ratio (OR) .43 (95% CI:.22-.85) and .53 (95% CI:.26-1.1). Conclusions After correcting for selection bias, loss-to-follow-up, and confounding, our analysis suggests a protective effect of participating in the Encontros intervention. Evaluations of behavioral, social, and multi-level interventions to prevent STI can benefit by introduction of weighting methods such as IPW. PMID:20375927

  3. Using in situ pore water concentrations to estimate the phytotoxicity of nicosulfuron in soils to corn (Zea mays L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kailin; Cao, Zhengya; Pan, Xiong; Yu, Yunlong

    2012-08-01

    The phytotoxicity of an herbicide in soil is typically dependent on the soil characteristics. To obtain a comparable value of the concentration that inhibits growth by 50% (IC50), 0.01 M CaCl(2) , excess pore water (EPW) and in situ pore water (IPW) were used to extract the bioavailable fraction of nicosulfuron from five different soils to estimate the nicosulfuron phytotoxicity to corn (Zea mays L.). The results indicated that the phytotoxicity of nicosulfuron in soils to corn depended on the soil type, and the IC50 values calculated based on the amended concentration of nicosulfuron ranged from 0.77 to 9.77 mg/kg among the five tested soils. The range of variation in IC50 values for nicosulfuron was smaller when the concentrations of nicosulfuron extracted with 0.01 M CaCl(2) and EPW were used instead of the amended concentration. No significant difference was observed among the IC50 values calculated from the IPW concentrations of nicosulfuron in the five tested soils, suggesting that the concentration of nicosulfuron in IPW could be used to estimate the phytotoxicity of residual nicosulfuron in soils. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  4. Estimating the treatment effect from non-randomized studies: The example of reduced intensity conditioning allogeneic stem cell transplantation in hematological diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Resche-Rigon Matthieu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In some clinical situations, for which RCT are rare or impossible, the majority of the evidence comes from observational studies, but standard estimations could be biased because they ignore covariates that confound treatment decisions and outcomes. Methods Three observational studies were conducted to assess the benefit of Allo-SCT in hematological malignancies of multiple myeloma, follicular lymphoma and Hodgkin’s disease. Two statistical analyses were performed: the propensity score (PS matching approach and the inverse probability weighting (IPW approach. Results Based on PS-matched samples, a survival benefit in MM patients treated by Allo-SCT, as compared to similar non-allo treated patients, was observed with an HR of death at 0.35 (95%CI: 0.14-0.88. Similar results were observed in HD, 0.23 (0.07-0.80 but not in FL, 1.28 (0.43-3.77. Estimated benefits of Allo-SCT for the original population using IPW were erased in HR for death at 0.72 (0.37-1.39 for MM patients, 0.60 (0.19-1.89 for HD patients, and 2.02 (0.88-4.66 for FL patients. Conclusion Differences in estimated benefits rely on whether the underlying population to which they apply is an ideal randomized experimental population (PS or the original population (IPW. These useful methods should be employed when assessing the effects of innovative treatment in non-randomized experiments.

  5. Super learning to hedge against incorrect inference from arbitrary parametric assumptions in marginal structural modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neugebauer, Romain; Fireman, Bruce; Roy, Jason A; Raebel, Marsha A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2013-08-01

    Clinical trials are unlikely to ever be launched for many comparative effectiveness research (CER) questions. Inferences from hypothetical randomized trials may however be emulated with marginal structural modeling (MSM) using observational data, but success in adjusting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias typically relies on parametric modeling assumptions. If these assumptions are violated, inferences from MSM may be inaccurate. In this article, we motivate the application of a data-adaptive estimation approach called super learning (SL) to avoid reliance on arbitrary parametric assumptions in CER. Using the electronic health records data from adults with new-onset type 2 diabetes, we implemented MSM with inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimation to evaluate the effect of three oral antidiabetic therapies on the worsening of glomerular filtration rate. Inferences from IPW estimation were noticeably sensitive to the parametric assumptions about the associations between both the exposure and censoring processes and the main suspected source of confounding, that is, time-dependent measurements of hemoglobin A1c. SL was successfully implemented to harness flexible confounding and selection bias adjustment from existing machine learning algorithms. Erroneous IPW inference about clinical effectiveness because of arbitrary and incorrect modeling decisions may be avoided with SL. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Implementing mental health peer support: a South Australian experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Carmen C D; Paton, Barbara C; Gassner, Lee-Anne J

    2010-01-01

    Mental illness is among the greatest causes of disability, diminished quality of life and reduced productivity. Mental health policy aims to reform services to meet consumers' needs and one of the strategies is to increase the number of consumers working in the mental health service system. In South Australia, the Peer Work Project was established to provide a program for the training of consumers to work alongside mental health services. The project developed a flexible training pathway that consisted of an information session, the Introduction to Peer Work (IPW) course and further training pathways for peer workers. External evaluation indicated that the IPW course was a good preparation for peer workers, but a crucial factor in the implementation process of employing peer workers was commitment and leadership within the organisation in both preparing the organisation and supporting peer workers in their role. To assist organisations wanting to employ peer workers, a three step model was developed: prepare, train and support. The project has been successful in establishing employment outcomes for IPW graduates. The outcomes increased with time after graduation and there was a shift from voluntary to paid employment.

  7. Assessing the Potential for Bias From Nonresponse to a Study Follow-up Interview: An Example From the Agricultural Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinsky, Jessica L; Richardson, David B; Wing, Steve; Beard, John D; Alavanja, Michael; Beane Freeman, Laura E; Chen, Honglei; Henneberger, Paul K; Kamel, Freya; Sandler, Dale P; Hoppin, Jane A

    2017-08-15

    Prospective cohort studies are important tools for identifying causes of disease. However, these studies are susceptible to attrition. When information collected after enrollment is through interview or exam, attrition leads to missing information for nonrespondents. The Agricultural Health Study enrolled 52,394 farmers in 1993-1997 and collected additional information during subsequent interviews. Forty-six percent of enrolled farmers responded to the 2005-2010 interview; 7% of farmers died prior to the interview. We examined whether response was related to attributes measured at enrollment. To characterize potential bias from attrition, we evaluated differences in associations between smoking and incidence of 3 cancer types between the enrolled cohort and the subcohort of 2005-2010 respondents, using cancer registry information. In the subcohort we evaluated the ability of inverse probability weighting (IPW) to reduce bias. Response was related to age, state, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, smoking, and alcohol consumption. When exposure and outcome were associated and case response was differential by exposure, some bias was observed; IPW conditional on exposure and covariates failed to correct estimates. When response was nondifferential, subcohort and full-cohort estimates were similar, making IPW unnecessary. This example provides a demonstration of investigating the influence of attrition in cohort studies using information that has been self-reported after enrollment. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Estimating inverse probability weights using super learner when weight-model specification is unknown in a marginal structural Cox model context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Platt, Robert W

    2017-06-15

    Correct specification of the inverse probability weighting (IPW) model is necessary for consistent inference from a marginal structural Cox model (MSCM). In practical applications, researchers are typically unaware of the true specification of the weight model. Nonetheless, IPWs are commonly estimated using parametric models, such as the main-effects logistic regression model. In practice, assumptions underlying such models may not hold and data-adaptive statistical learning methods may provide an alternative. Many candidate statistical learning approaches are available in the literature. However, the optimal approach for a given dataset is impossible to predict. Super learner (SL) has been proposed as a tool for selecting an optimal learner from a set of candidates using cross-validation. In this study, we evaluate the usefulness of a SL in estimating IPW in four different MSCM simulation scenarios, in which we varied the specification of the true weight model specification (linear and/or additive). Our simulations show that, in the presence of weight model misspecification, with a rich and diverse set of candidate algorithms, SL can generally offer a better alternative to the commonly used statistical learning approaches in terms of MSE as well as the coverage probabilities of the estimated effect in an MSCM. The findings from the simulation studies guided the application of the MSCM in a multiple sclerosis cohort from British Columbia, Canada (1995-2008), to estimate the impact of beta-interferon treatment in delaying disability progression. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Inverse probability weighting and doubly robust methods in correcting the effects of non-response in the reimbursed medication and self-reported turnout estimates in the ATH survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härkänen, Tommi; Kaikkonen, Risto; Virtala, Esa; Koskinen, Seppo

    2014-11-06

    To assess the nonresponse rates in a questionnaire survey with respect to administrative register data, and to correct the bias statistically. The Finnish Regional Health and Well-being Study (ATH) in 2010 was based on a national sample and several regional samples. Missing data analysis was based on socio-demographic register data covering the whole sample. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) methods were estimated using the logistic regression model, which was selected using the Bayesian information criteria. The crude, weighted and true self-reported turnout in the 2008 municipal election and prevalences of entitlements to specially reimbursed medication, and the crude and weighted body mass index (BMI) means were compared. The IPW method appeared to remove a relatively large proportion of the bias compared to the crude prevalence estimates of the turnout and the entitlements to specially reimbursed medication. Several demographic factors were shown to be associated with missing data, but few interactions were found. Our results suggest that the IPW method can improve the accuracy of results of a population survey, and the model selection provides insight into the structure of missing data. However, health-related missing data mechanisms are beyond the scope of statistical methods, which mainly rely on socio-demographic information to correct the results.

  10. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Yu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Methods Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM were compared. The “do-calculus” was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Results Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal

  11. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yuanyuan; Li, Hongkai; Sun, Xiaoru; Su, Ping; Wang, Tingting; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Yanxun; Xue, Fuzhong

    2017-12-28

    Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM) were compared. The "do-calculus" was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal strategy was to adjust for the parent nodes of outcome, which

  12. Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Hofmann, Barbara; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Uhlendorff, Arne

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women?s first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control ...

  13. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajouheshnia, Romin; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2017-07-14

    Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) on the estimated model discrimination (c-index) and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots) in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and should not be ignored. When treatment use is random, treated

  14. New York City International Polar Weekend at the American Museum of Natural History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfirman, S.; Turrin, M.; Macphee, R.

    2008-12-01

    The American Museum of Natural History, in partnership with Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the Earth Institute of Columbia University and Barnard College, is featuring the International Polar Year through a New York City International Polar Weekend (NYC-IPW) in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The event showcases current polar research, polar environmental changes, history and culture during two days of family programs and activities, performances, and lectures. The goal of the NYC-IPW is to engage diverse audiences and enhance the public understanding of polar science, in particular IPY research, through close interactions with polar experts. Activities for the public include many disciplines, ranging from the physical sciences and cultural anthropology to music and art, and are presented in many forms, from lectures, panels and films to posters and play. Highlights of the NYC-IPW include: 1) A polar fair for youth and adults, showcasing scientists, artists, and educators who have worked at one or both poles and including many interactive exhibits featuring such topics as life in New York at the end of the last Ice Age, how Arctic sea ice is changing, and life on and under the ice. 2) Performances and presentations oriented towards children and families, including Inuit Throat Singers, Central Park Zoo Theater Group, and a northern lights show. 3) Lectures showcasing current IPY research and addressing such issues as the possible effects of climate change on the poles and the rest of the world, as well as polar poetry, art and film. 4) A partnership with New York City Urban Advantage program for Middle School students in the city to meet with scientists, teachers and students who had participated in polar research and travel. 5) Norwegian Consulate sponsorship of science presenters and Sami performers. The March 2007 event involved 85 presenters and volunteers from 22 institutions, and attracted ca. 3,500 visitors. Approximately 5,000 visitors attended the February 2008

  15. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romin Pajouheshnia

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. Methods We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW on the estimated model discrimination (c-index and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Results Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. Conclusions When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and

  16. Crowd Sourcing a New Paradigm for Interactome Driven Drug Target Identification in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohira, Harsha; Bhat, Ashwini G.; Passi, Anurag; Mukherjee, Keya; Choudhary, Kumari Sonal; Kumar, Vikas; Arora, Anshula; Munusamy, Prabhakaran; Subramanian, Ahalyaa; Venkatachalam, Aparna; S, Gayathri; Raj, Sweety; Chitra, Vijaya; Verma, Kaveri; Zaheer, Salman; J, Balaganesh; Gurusamy, Malarvizhi; Razeeth, Mohammed; Raja, Ilamathi; Thandapani, Madhumohan; Mevada, Vishal; Soni, Raviraj; Rana, Shruti; Ramanna, Girish Muthagadhalli; Raghavan, Swetha; Subramanya, Sunil N.; Kholia, Trupti; Patel, Rajesh; Bhavnani, Varsha; Chiranjeevi, Lakavath; Sengupta, Soumi; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Atray, Naresh; Gandhi, Swati; Avasthi, Tiruvayipati Suma; Nisthar, Shefin; Anurag, Meenakshi; Sharma, Pratibha; Hasija, Yasha; Dash, Debasis; Sharma, Arun; Scaria, Vinod; Thomas, Zakir; Chandra, Nagasuma; Brahmachari, Samir K.; Bhardwaj, Anshu

    2012-01-01

    A decade since the availability of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) genome sequence, no promising drug has seen the light of the day. This not only indicates the challenges in discovering new drugs but also suggests a gap in our current understanding of Mtb biology. We attempt to bridge this gap by carrying out extensive re-annotation and constructing a systems level protein interaction map of Mtb with an objective of finding novel drug target candidates. Towards this, we synergized crowd sourcing and social networking methods through an initiative ‘Connect to Decode’ (C2D) to generate the first and largest manually curated interactome of Mtb termed ‘interactome pathway’ (IPW), encompassing a total of 1434 proteins connected through 2575 functional relationships. Interactions leading to gene regulation, signal transduction, metabolism, structural complex formation have been catalogued. In the process, we have functionally annotated 87% of the Mtb genome in context of gene products. We further combine IPW with STRING based network to report central proteins, which may be assessed as potential drug targets for development of drugs with least possible side effects. The fact that five of the 17 predicted drug targets are already experimentally validated either genetically or biochemically lends credence to our unique approach. PMID:22808064

  17. Crowd sourcing a new paradigm for interactome driven drug target identification in Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohit Vashisht

    Full Text Available A decade since the availability of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb genome sequence, no promising drug has seen the light of the day. This not only indicates the challenges in discovering new drugs but also suggests a gap in our current understanding of Mtb biology. We attempt to bridge this gap by carrying out extensive re-annotation and constructing a systems level protein interaction map of Mtb with an objective of finding novel drug target candidates. Towards this, we synergized crowd sourcing and social networking methods through an initiative 'Connect to Decode' (C2D to generate the first and largest manually curated interactome of Mtb termed 'interactome pathway' (IPW, encompassing a total of 1434 proteins connected through 2575 functional relationships. Interactions leading to gene regulation, signal transduction, metabolism, structural complex formation have been catalogued. In the process, we have functionally annotated 87% of the Mtb genome in context of gene products. We further combine IPW with STRING based network to report central proteins, which may be assessed as potential drug targets for development of drugs with least possible side effects. The fact that five of the 17 predicted drug targets are already experimentally validated either genetically or biochemically lends credence to our unique approach.

  18. Automatic variable selection method and a comparison for quantitative analysis in laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Fajie; Fu, Xiao; Jiang, Jiajia; Huang, Tingting; Ma, Ling; Zhang, Cong

    2018-05-01

    In this work, an automatic variable selection method for quantitative analysis of soil samples using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is proposed, which is based on full spectrum correction (FSC) and modified iterative predictor weighting-partial least squares (mIPW-PLS). The method features automatic selection without artificial processes. To illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method, a comparison with genetic algorithm (GA) and successive projections algorithm (SPA) for different elements (copper, barium and chromium) detection in soil was implemented. The experimental results showed that all the three methods could accomplish variable selection effectively, among which FSC-mIPW-PLS required significantly shorter computation time (12 s approximately for 40,000 initial variables) than the others. Moreover, improved quantification models were got with variable selection approaches. The root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) of models utilizing the new method were 27.47 (copper), 37.15 (barium) and 39.70 (chromium) mg/kg, which showed comparable prediction effect with GA and SPA.

  19. Accounting for interactions and complex inter-subject dependency in estimating treatment effect in cluster-randomized trials with missing outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prague, Melanie; Wang, Rui; Stephens, Alisa; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric; DeGruttola, Victor

    2016-12-01

    Semi-parametric methods are often used for the estimation of intervention effects on correlated outcomes in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs). When outcomes are missing at random (MAR), Inverse Probability Weighted (IPW) methods incorporating baseline covariates can be used to deal with informative missingness. Also, augmented generalized estimating equations (AUG) correct for imbalance in baseline covariates but need to be extended for MAR outcomes. However, in the presence of interactions between treatment and baseline covariates, neither method alone produces consistent estimates for the marginal treatment effect if the model for interaction is not correctly specified. We propose an AUG-IPW estimator that weights by the inverse of the probability of being a complete case and allows different outcome models in each intervention arm. This estimator is doubly robust (DR); it gives correct estimates whether the missing data process or the outcome model is correctly specified. We consider the problem of covariate interference which arises when the outcome of an individual may depend on covariates of other individuals. When interfering covariates are not modeled, the DR property prevents bias as long as covariate interference is not present simultaneously for the outcome and the missingness. An R package is developed implementing the proposed method. An extensive simulation study and an application to a CRT of HIV risk reduction-intervention in South Africa illustrate the method. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  20. Positioning and applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogowski Jerzy B.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents national report of Poland for IAG on positioning and applications. The selected research presented was carried out at leading Polish research institutions and concern precise multi-GNSS satellite positioning - relative and absolute - and also GNSS-based ionosphere and troposphere modelling and studies. The research resulted in noticeable advancements in these subjects confirmed by the development of new algorithms and methods. New and improved methods of precise GNSS positioning were developed, and also GNSS metrology was studied. New advanced troposphere models were presented and tested. In particular, these models allowed testing IPW variability on regional and global scales. Also, new regional ionosphere monitoring web-based services were developed and launched.

  1. The age of fathers in the USA is rising: an analysis of 168 867 480 births from 1972 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandwala, Yash S; Zhang, Chiyuan A; Lu, Ying; Eisenberg, Michael L

    2017-10-01

    How has the mean paternal age in the USA changed over the past 4 decades? The age at which men are fathering children in the USA has been increasing over time, although it varies by race, geographic region and paternal education level. While the rise in mean maternal age and its implications for fertility, birth outcomes and public health have been well documented, little is known about paternal characteristics of births within the USA. A retrospective data analysis of paternal age and reporting patterns for 168 867 480 live births within the USA since 1972 was conducted. All live births within the USA collected through the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were evaluated. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to reduce bias due to missing paternal records. Mean paternal age has increased over the past 44 years from 27.4 to 30.9 years. College education and Northeastern birth states were associated with higher paternal age. Racial/ethnic differences were also identified, whereby Asian fathers were the oldest and Black fathers were the youngest. The parental age difference (paternal age minus maternal age) has decreased over the past 44 years. Births to Black and Native American mothers were most often lacking paternal data, implying low paternal reporting. Paternal reporting was higher for older and more educated women. Although we utilized IPW to reduce the impact of paternal reporting bias, our estimates may still be influenced by the missing data in the NVSS. Paternal age is rising within the USA among all regions, races and education levels. Given the implications for offspring health and demographic patterns, further research on this trend is warranted. No funding was received for this study and there are no competing interests. N/A. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For

  2. Carbapenem therapy is associated with improved survival compared with piperacillin-tazobactam for patients with extended-spectrum β-lactamase bacteremia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamma, Pranita D; Han, Jennifer H; Rock, Clare; Harris, Anthony D; Lautenbach, Ebbing; Hsu, Alice J; Avdic, Edina; Cosgrove, Sara E

    2015-05-01

    The effectiveness of piperacillin-tazobactam (PTZ) for the treatment of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia is controversial. We compared 14-day mortality of PTZ vs carbapenems as empiric therapy in a cohort of patients with ESBL bacteremia who all received definitive therapy with a carbapenem. Patients hospitalized between January 2007 and April 2014 with monomicrobial ESBL bacteremia were included. A decrease of >3 doubling dilutions in the minimum inhibitory concentration for third-generation cephalosporins tested in combination with 4 µg/mL of clavulanic acid was used to confirm ESBL status. The primary exposure was empiric therapy, defined as antibiotic therapy administered to a patient before ESBL status was known. Patients were excluded if they did not receive a carbapenem after ESBL production was identified. The primary outcome was time to death from the first day of bacteremia. Propensity scores using inverse probability of exposure weighting (IPW) were used to estimate the probability that a patient would receive PTZ vs carbapenems empirically. We calculated overall hazard ratios for mortality censored at 14 days using Cox proportional hazards models on an IPW-adjusted cohort. A total of 331 unique patients with ESBL bacteremia were identified. One hundred three (48%) patients received PTZ empirically and 110 (52%) received carbapenems empirically. The adjusted risk of death was 1.92 times higher for patients receiving empiric PTZ compared with empiric carbapenem therapy (95% confidence interval, 1.07-3.45). PTZ appears inferior to carbapenems for the treatment of ESBL bacteremia. For patients at high risk of invasive ESBL infections, early carbapenem therapy should be considered. Our findings should not be extended to β-lactam/β-lactamase inhibitor combinations in development, as limited clinical data are available for these agents. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of

  3. Food insecurity and mental health problems among a community sample of young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, Laura; Lioret, Sandrine; van der Waerden, Judith; Fombonne, Éric; Falissard, Bruno; Melchior, Maria

    2016-08-01

    Food insecurity has been found to be related to anxiety and depression; however, the association with other psychiatric disorders, particularly among young adults, is not well known. We examined whether food insecurity is independently associated with four common mental health problems among a community sample of young adults in France. Data are from the TEMPO longitudinal cohort study. In 1991, participants' parents provided information on health and family socioeconomic characteristics. In 2011, participants' (18-35 years) reported food insecurity, mental health symptoms, and socioeconomic conditions (n = 1214). Mental health problems ascertained included major depressive episode, suicidal ideation, attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder, and substance abuse and/or dependence (nicotine, alcohol and cannabis). Cross-sectional associations between food insecurity and mental health problems were tested using modified Poisson regressions, weighted by inverse probability weights (IPW) of exposure. This makes food insecure and not food insecure participants comparable on all characteristics including socioeconomic factors and past mental health problems. 8.5 % of young adults were food insecure. In IPW-controlled analyses, food insecurity was associated with increased levels of depression (RR = 2.01, 95 % CI 1.01-4.02), suicidal ideation (RR = 3.23, 95 % CI 1.55-6.75) and substance use problems (RR = 1.68, 95 % CI 1.15-2.46). Food insecurity co-occurs with depression, suicidal ideation and substance use problems in young adulthood. Our findings suggest that reductions in food insecurity during this important life period may help prevent mental health problems. Policies aiming to alleviate food insecurity should also address individuals' psychiatric problems, to prevent a lifelong vicious circle of poor mental health and low socioeconomic attainment.

  4. Incorporating robotic-assisted surgery for endometrial cancer staging: Analysis of morbidity and costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogani, Giorgio; Multinu, Francesco; Dowdy, Sean C; Cliby, William A; Wilson, Timothy O; Gostout, Bobbie S; Weaver, Amy L; Borah, Bijan J; Killian, Jill M; Bijlani, Akash; Angioni, Stefano; Mariani, Andrea

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate how the introduction of robotic-assisted surgery affects treatment-related morbidity and cost of endometrial cancer (EC) staging. We retrospectively reviewed the records of consecutive patients with stage I-III EC undergoing surgical staging between 2007 and 2012 at our institution. Costs (from surgery to 30days after surgery) were set based on the Medicare cost-to-charge ratio for each year and inflated to 2014 values. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to decrease the allocation bias when comparing outcomes between surgical groups. We focused our analysis on the 251 EC patients who had robotic-assisted surgery and the 384 who had open staging. During the study period, the use of robotic-assisted surgery increased and open staging decreased (P<0.001). Correcting group imbalances by using IPW methodology, we observed that patients undergoing robotic-assisted staging had a significantly lower postoperative complication rate, lower blood transfusion rate, longer median operating time, shorter median length of stay, and lower readmission rate than patients undergoing open staging (all P<0.001). Overall 30-day costs were similar between the 2 groups, with robotic-assisted surgery having significantly higher median operating room costs ($2820 difference; P<0.001) but lower median room and board costs ($2929 difference; P<0.001) than open surgery. Increasing experience with robotic-assisted staging was significantly associated with a decrease in median operating time (P=0.002) and length of stay (P=0.003). The implementation of robotic-assisted surgery for EC staging improves patient outcomes. It provides women the benefits of minimally invasive surgery without increasing costs and potentially improves patient turnover. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Monitoring of substrate and product concentrations in acetic fermentation processes for onion vinegar production by NIR spectroscopy: value addition to worthless onions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Sáiz, J M; Esteban-Díez, I; Sánchez-Gallardo, C; Pizarro, C

    2008-08-01

    Wastes and by-products of the onion-processing industry pose an increasing disposal and environmental problem and represent a loss of valuable sources of nutrients. The present study focused on the production of vinegar from worthless onions as a potential valorisation route which could provide a viable solution to multiple disposal and environmental problems, simultaneously offering the possibility of converting waste materials into a useful food-grade product and of exploiting the unique properties and health benefits of onions. This study deals specifically with the second and definitive step of the onion vinegar production process: the efficient production of vinegar from onion waste by transforming onion ethanol, previously produced by alcoholic fermentation, into acetic acid via acetic fermentation. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), coupled with multivariate calibration methods, has been used to monitor the concentrations of both substrates and products in acetic fermentation. Separate partial least squares (PLS) regression models, correlating NIR spectral data of fermentation samples with each kinetic parameter studied, were developed. Wavelength selection was also performed applying the iterative predictor weighting-PLS (IPW-PLS) method in order to only consider significant spectral features in each model development to improve the quality of the final models constructed. Biomass, substrate (ethanol) and product (acetic acid) concentration were predicted in the acetic fermentation of onion alcohol with high accuracy using IPW-PLS models with a root-mean-square error of the residuals in external prediction (RMSEP) lower than 2.5% for both ethanol and acetic acid, and an RMSEP of 6.1% for total biomass concentration (a very satisfactory result considering the relatively low precision and accuracy associated with the reference method used for determining the latter). Thus, the simple and reliable calibration models proposed in this study suggest that they

  6. Nonparametric estimation for censored mixture data with application to the Cooperative Huntington's Observational Research Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Garcia, Tanya P; Ma, Yanyuan

    2012-01-01

    This work presents methods for estimating genotype-specific distributions from genetic epidemiology studies where the event times are subject to right censoring, the genotypes are not directly observed, and the data arise from a mixture of scientifically meaningful subpopulations. Examples of such studies include kin-cohort studies and quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies. Current methods for analyzing censored mixture data include two types of nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) which do not make parametric assumptions on the genotype-specific density functions. Although both NPMLEs are commonly used, we show that one is inefficient and the other inconsistent. To overcome these deficiencies, we propose three classes of consistent nonparametric estimators which do not assume parametric density models and are easy to implement. They are based on the inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and nonparametric imputation (IMP). The AIPW achieves the efficiency bound without additional modeling assumptions. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate satisfactory performance of these estimators even when the data are heavily censored. We apply these estimators to the Cooperative Huntington's Observational Research Trial (COHORT), and provide age-specific estimates of the effect of mutation in the Huntington gene on mortality using a sample of family members. The close approximation of the estimated non-carrier survival rates to that of the U.S. population indicates small ascertainment bias in the COHORT family sample. Our analyses underscore an elevated risk of death in Huntington gene mutation carriers compared to non-carriers for a wide age range, and suggest that the mutation equally affects survival rates in both genders. The estimated survival rates are useful in genetic counseling for providing guidelines on interpreting the risk of death associated with a positive genetic testing, and in facilitating future subjects at risk

  7. Nonparametric estimation for censored mixture data with application to the Cooperative Huntington’s Observational Research Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Garcia, Tanya P.; Ma, Yanyuan

    2012-01-01

    This work presents methods for estimating genotype-specific distributions from genetic epidemiology studies where the event times are subject to right censoring, the genotypes are not directly observed, and the data arise from a mixture of scientifically meaningful subpopulations. Examples of such studies include kin-cohort studies and quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies. Current methods for analyzing censored mixture data include two types of nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) which do not make parametric assumptions on the genotype-specific density functions. Although both NPMLEs are commonly used, we show that one is inefficient and the other inconsistent. To overcome these deficiencies, we propose three classes of consistent nonparametric estimators which do not assume parametric density models and are easy to implement. They are based on the inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and nonparametric imputation (IMP). The AIPW achieves the efficiency bound without additional modeling assumptions. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate satisfactory performance of these estimators even when the data are heavily censored. We apply these estimators to the Cooperative Huntington’s Observational Research Trial (COHORT), and provide age-specific estimates of the effect of mutation in the Huntington gene on mortality using a sample of family members. The close approximation of the estimated non-carrier survival rates to that of the U.S. population indicates small ascertainment bias in the COHORT family sample. Our analyses underscore an elevated risk of death in Huntington gene mutation carriers compared to non-carriers for a wide age range, and suggest that the mutation equally affects survival rates in both genders. The estimated survival rates are useful in genetic counseling for providing guidelines on interpreting the risk of death associated with a positive genetic testing, and in facilitating future subjects at risk

  8. Downwelling Far-Infrared Radiance Spectra Measured by FIRST at Cerro Toco, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, J. C.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Cageao, R.; Kratz, D. P.; Latvakoski, H.; Johnson, D. G.; Mlawer, E. J.; Turner, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    The Far-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Troposphere (FIRST) instrument is a Fourier transform spectrometer developed by NASA Langley Research Center in collaboration with the Space Dynamics Laboratory and the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. FIRST was initially developed for measuring the far-infrared portion of Earth's longwave spectrum as a balloon borne instrument and later was reconfigured to operate as a ground-based instrument. In its current ground-based configuration FIRST was deployed at 17500 ft on Cerro Toco, a mountain in the Atacama Desert of Chile, from August to October, 2009. There the integrated precipitable water (IPW) was as low as 0.02 cm. FIRST measurements from days with IPW between 0.024 and 0.035 cm during the campaign are presented here between 200 cm-1 and 800 cm-1. Significant spectral development in the far-IR is observed over the entire 200 cm-1 to 800 cm-1 band. Water vapor and temperature profiles from radiosonde and GVRP measurements are used as inputs to the AER Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) utilizing the AER v3.2 line parameter database. Uncertainties in both the measured and modeled radiances are accounted for in this study. The residual LBLRTM - FIRST is calculated to assess agreement between the measured and modeled spectra. Measured and model radiances generally agree to within the combined uncertainties for wavenumbers greater than 360 cm-1. At wavenumbers less than 360 cm-1 persistent troughs in the residual are present outside of the combined uncertainties. These features are present on different days and at different water vapor amounts. Possible solutions for these features are discussed.

  9. A role for tight junction-associated MARVEL proteins in larval sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) osmoregulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolosov, Dennis; Bui, Phuong; Donini, Andrew; Wilkie, Mike P; Kelly, Scott P

    2017-10-15

    This study reports on tight junction-associated MARVEL proteins of larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) and their potential role in ammocoete osmoregulation. Two occludin isoforms (designated Ocln and Ocln-a) and a tricellulin (Tric) were identified. Transcripts encoding ocln , ocln-a and tric were broadly expressed in larval lamprey, with the greatest abundance of ocln in the gut, liver and kidney, ocln-a in the gill and skin, and tric in the kidney. Ocln and Ocln-a resolved as ∼63 kDa and ∼35 kDa MW proteins, respectively, while Tric resolved as a ∼50 kDa protein. Ocln immunolocalized to the gill vasculature and in gill mucous cells while Ocln-a localized to the gill pouch and gill epithelium. Both Ocln and Ocln-a localized in the nephron, the epidermis and the luminal side of the gut. In branchial tissue, Tric exhibited punctate localization, consistent with its presence at regions of tricellular contact. Following ion-poor water (IPW) acclimation of ammocoetes, serum [Na + ] and [Cl - ] decreased, but not [Ca 2+ ], and carcass moisture content increased. In association, Ocln abundance increased in the skin and kidney, but reduced in the gill of IPW-acclimated ammocoetes while Ocln-a abundance reduced in the kidney only. Tric abundance increased in the gill. Region-specific alterations in ocln , ocln-a and tric mRNA abundance were also observed in the gut. Data support a role for Ocln, Ocln-a and Tric in the osmoregulatory strategies of a basal vertebrate. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  10. The health benefits of secondary education in adolescents and young adults: An international analysis in 186 low-, middle- and high-income countries from 1990 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viner, Russell M; Hargreaves, Dougal S; Ward, Joseph; Bonell, Chris; Mokdad, Ali H; Patton, George

    2017-12-01

    The health benefits of secondary education have been little studied. We undertook country-level longitudinal analyses of the impact of lengthening secondary education on health outcomes amongst 15-24 year olds. Exposures: average length of secondary and primary education from 1980 to 2013.Data/Outcomes: Country level adolescent fertility rate (AFR), HIV prevalence and mortality rate from 1989/90 to 2013 across 186 low-, middle- and high-income countries.Analysis: Longitudinal mixed effects models, entering secondary and primary education together, adjusted for time varying GDP and country income status. Longitudinal structural marginal models using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to take account of time varying confounding by primary education and GDP. Counterfactual scenarios of no change in secondary education since 1980/1990 were estimated from model coefficients for each outcome. Each additional year of secondary education decreased AFR by 8.4% in mixed effects models and 14.6% in IPW models independent of primary education and GDP. Counterfactual analyses showed the proportion of the reduction in adolescent fertility rate over the study period independently attributable to secondary education was 28% in low income countries. Each additional year of secondary education reduced mortality by 16.9% for 15-19 year and 14.8% for 20-24 year old young women and 11.4% for 15-19 year and 8.8% for 20-24 year old young men. Counterfactual scenarios suggested 12% and 23% of the mortality reduction for 15-19 and 20-24 year old young men was attributable to secondary education in low income countries. Each additional year of secondary education was associated with a 24.5% and 43.1% reduction in HIV prevalence amongst young men and women. The health benefits associated with secondary education were greater than those of primary education and were greatest amongst young women and those from low income countries. Secondary education has the potential to be a social vaccine

  11. Prevalent digoxin use and subsequent risk of death or hospitalization in ambulatory heart failure patients with a reduced ejection fraction-Findings from the Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training (HF-ACTION) randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambrosy, Andrew P; Bhatt, Ankeet S; Stebbins, Amanda L; Wruck, Lisa M; Fudim, Marat; Greene, Stephen J; Kraus, William E; O'Connor, Christopher M; Piña, Ileana L; Whellan, David J; Mentz, Robert J

    2018-05-01

    Despite more than 200 years of clinical experience and a pivotal trial, recently published research has called into question the safety and efficacy of digoxin therapy in heart failure (HF). HF-ACTION (ClinicalTrials.gov Number: NCT00047437) enrolled 2331 outpatients with HF and an EF ≤35% between April 2003 and February 2007 and randomized them to aerobic exercise training versus usual care. Patients were grouped according to prevalent digoxin status at baseline. The association between digoxin therapy and outcomes was assessed using Cox proportional hazard and inverse-probability weighted (IPW) regression models adjusted for demographics, medical history, medications, laboratory values, quality of life, and exercise parameters. The prevalence of digoxin therapy decreased from 52% during the first 6 months of enrollment to 35% at the end of the HF-ACTION trial (P <0.0001). Study participants were 59± 13 years of age, 72% were male, and approximately half had an ischemic etiology of HF. Patients receiving digoxin at baseline tended to be younger and were more likely to report New York Heart Association functional class III/IV symptoms (rather than class II) compared to those not receiving digoxin. Patients taking digoxin had worse baseline exercise capacity as measured by peak VO 2 and 6-min walk test and greater impairments in health status as reflected by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire. The association between digoxin and the risk of death or hospitalization differed depending on whether Cox proportional hazard (Hazard Ratio 1.03, 95% Confidence Interval 0.92-1.16; P = .62) or IPW regression models (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.00-1.17; P = .057) were used to adjust for potential confounders. Although digoxin use was associated with high-risk clinical features, the association between digoxin therapy and outcomes was dependent on the statistical methods used for multivariable adjustment. Clinical equipoise exists and additional prospective research is

  12. Impact of cleaner fuel use and improved stoves on acute respiratory infections: evidence from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamichhane, Prabhat; Sharma, Anurag; Mahal, Ajay

    2017-11-01

    The use of cleaner fuel and improved stoves has been promoted as a means to lower harmful emissions from solid fuels. However, little is known about how exclusive use of cleaner fuels, mixed fuel use and improved stoves influences children's health. We compared the impact of using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exclusively with mixed fuel use (LPG plus polluting fuels) and with exclusive use of polluting fuels on acute respiratory infections (ARI) among 16 157 children 0-4 years of age from households in the 2012 Indian Human Development Survey. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) procedures for multiple treatments were used for this evaluation. Children from households using LPG had a 5.0% lower probability of reporting ARI relative to exclusive users of polluting fuels, with larger effects (10.7%) in rural households. The probability of ARI in households using improved stoves and mixed fuel use was also lower in rural households, by 2.9% and 2.8%, respectively. The magnitude of effect varied across population subgroups, with the highest effects for children living in households living in kachha (low quality material) houses households identified as poor. Use of LPG and improved stoves lowered the probability of ARI among children younger than 5 years. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Barbara; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Uhlendorff, Arne

    2017-06-01

    In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women's first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced. To account for the differences in the composition of the women who were displaced in a downturn and the women who were displaced in an upswing, we use a double weighting estimator. Results show that the extent to which job displacement has adverse effects on fertility depends on the business cycle. The first-birth rates were much lower for women who were displaced in an economic downturn than for those who lost a job in an economic upturn. This result cannot be explained by changes in the observed characteristics of the displaced women over the business cycle.

  14. The development of the Dutch wind energy technology in an international perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beurskens, H.J.M.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is given of the developments in the Dutch wind energy industry and the position of that industry in the industrialized world. First attention is paid to some historical developments of the modern wind energy technology in the Netherlands compared to some other countries. The start of the Integral Wind energy Program (IPW) at the end of 1985 brought the Dutch know-how of wind energy back on the international level. Next a brief overview is given of governmental wind energy programs which resulted in various projects aimed at designing, testing and implementing wind turbines in the Netherlands. Here too a comparison is made with other countries concerning the realized capacity, investments, and attempts to commercialize the wind turbines. The technological developments in the Netherlands can be characterized as gradual: step-by-step larger wind turbines (i.e. larger capacities) will be developed. The development of multi-megawatt turbines is too risky and too costly at present. Some final remarks state that the present position of the Dutch wind energy industry and the Dutch research activities are good starting-points to realize an important part of the wind energy capacity in Europe, or even the world. Recommendations are given by which the Dutch wind energy industry can operate with success on the international market. 5 figs., 3 tabs., 2 refs

  15. Do Coffee Farmers Benefit in Food Security from Participating in Coffee Cooperatives? Evidence from Southwest Ethiopia Coffee Cooperatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shumeta, Zekarias; D'Haese, Marijke

    2018-06-01

    Most coffee in Ethiopia is produced by smallholder farmers who face a daily struggle to get sufficient income but also to feed their families. At the same time, many smallholder coffee producers are members of cooperatives. Yet, literature has paid little attention to the effect of cooperatives on combating food insecurity among cash crop producers including coffee farmers. The objective of the study was to investigate how coffee cooperative membership may affect food security among coffee farm households in Southwest Ethiopia. The study used cross-sectional household data on income, expenditure on food, staple food production (maize and teff), and utilization of improved inputs (fertilizer and improved seed) collected from 256 randomly selected farm households (132 cooperative members and 124 nonmembers) and applied an inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimation to assess the impact of cooperative membership on food security. The result revealed that cooperative membership has a positive and significant effect on staple food production (maize and teff) and facilitated technological transformation via increased utilization of fertilizer and improved seeds. Nonetheless, the effect on food expenditure and income could not be confirmed. Findings suggest a trade-off between coffee marketing and input supply functions of the cooperatives, impairing their true food security impact from the pooled income and production effect.

  16. Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Koutrakis, Petros; Kloog, Itai; Melly, Steven; Nordio, Francesco; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Jujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

  17. Data on the effect of target temperature management at 32–34 °C in cardiac arrest patients considering assessment by regional cerebral oxygen saturation: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuka Nakatani

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This data article contains raw data and supplementary analyzed data regarding to the article entitled “Effect of target temperature management at 32–34 °C in cardiac arrest patients considering assessment by regional cerebral oxygen saturation: A multicenter retrospective cohort study”. We examined the effectiveness of target temperature management (TTM at 32–34 °C considering degrees of patients’ cerebral injury and cerebral circulation assessed by regional cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO2. The research is a secondary analysis of prospectively collected registry, in which comatose patients who were transferred to 15 hospitals in Japan after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA, and we included 431 study patients. Propensity score analysis revealed that TTM at 32–34 °C decreased all-cause mortality in patients with rSO2 41–60%, and increased favorable neurological outcomes in patients with rSO2 41–60% in the original research article. With regard to the balance of covariates of propensity-score matching (PSM and inverse-probability weighting (IPW analyses, some covariates were not well balanced after the analyses between groups. The overlap plots indicate the overlap of densities of the propensity scores are low in group rSO2 41–60% and group rSO2 ≥ 61%. When patients were limited to those who achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC until/on hospitals arrival, TTM still tended to decrease all-cause mortality and increase favorable outcomes in group rSO2 41–60%.

  18. Measurements of downwelling far-infrared radiance during the RHUBC-II campaign at Cerro Toco, Chile and comparisons with line-by-line radiative transfer calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, Jeffrey C.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Cageao, Richard P.; Kratz, David P.; Latvakoski, Harri; Johnson, David G.; Turner, David D.; Mlawer, Eli J.

    2017-09-01

    Downwelling radiances at the Earth's surface measured by the Far-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Troposphere (FIRST) instrument in an environment with integrated precipitable water (IPW) as low as 0.03 cm are compared with calculated spectra in the far-infrared and mid-infrared. FIRST (a Fourier transform spectrometer) was deployed from August through October 2009 at 5.38 km MSL on Cerro Toco, a mountain in the Atacama Desert of Chile. There FIRST took part in the Radiative Heating in Unexplored Bands Campaign Part 2 (RHUBC-II), the goal of which is the assessment of water vapor spectroscopy. Radiosonde water vapor and temperature vertical profiles are input into the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) to compute modeled radiances. The LBLRTM minus FIRST residual spectrum is calculated to assess agreement. Uncertainties (1-σ) in both the measured and modeled radiances are also determined. Measured and modeled radiances nearly all agree to within combined (total) uncertainties. Features exceeding uncertainties can be corrected into the combined uncertainty by increasing water vapor and model continuum absorption, however this may not be necessary due to 1-σ uncertainties (68% confidence). Furthermore, the uncertainty in the measurement-model residual is very large and no additional information on the adequacy of current water vapor spectral line or continuum absorption parameters may be derived. Similar future experiments in similarly cold and dry environments will require absolute accuracy of 0.1% of a 273 K blackbody in radiance and water vapor accuracy of ∼3% in the profile layers contributing to downwelling radiance at the surface.

  19. Inequality in oral health related to early and later life social conditions: a study of elderly in Norway and Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gülcan, Ferda; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

    2015-02-10

    A life course perspective recognizes influences of socially patterned exposures on oral health across the life span. This study assessed the influence of early and later life social conditions on tooth loss and oral impacts on daily performances (OIDP) of people aged 65 and 70 years. Whether social inequalities in oral health changed after the usual age of retirement was also examined. In accordance with "the latent effect life course model", it was hypothesized that adverse early-life social conditions increase the risk of subsequent tooth loss and impaired OIDP, independent of later-life social conditions. Data were obtained from two cohorts studies conducted in Sweden and Norway. The 2007 and 2012 waves of the surveys were used for the present study. Early-life social conditions were measured in terms of gender, education and country of birth, and later-life social conditions were assessed by working status, marital status and size of social network. Logistic regression and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to analyse the data. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to adjust estimates for missing responses and loss to follow-up. Early-life social conditions contributed to tooth loss and OIDP in each survey year and both countries independent of later-life social conditions. Lower education correlated positively with tooth loss, but did not influence OIDP. Foreign country of birth correlated positively with oral impacts in Sweden only. Later-life social conditions were the strongest predictors of tooth loss and OIDP across survey years and countries. GEE revealed significant interactions between social network and survey year, and between marital status and survey year on tooth loss. The results confirmed the latent effect life course model in that early and later life social conditions had independent effects on tooth loss and OIDP among the elderly in Norway and Sweden. Between age 65 and 70, inequalities in tooth loss related to marital

  20. Causal Inference and Model Selection in Complex Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shandong

    Propensity score methods have become a part of the standard toolkit for applied researchers who wish to ascertain causal effects from observational data. While they were originally developed for binary treatments, several researchers have proposed generalizations of the propensity score methodology for non-binary treatment regimes. In this article, we firstly review three main methods that generalize propensity scores in this direction, namely, inverse propensity weighting (IPW), the propensity function (P-FUNCTION), and the generalized propensity score (GPS), along with recent extensions of the GPS that aim to improve its robustness. We compare the assumptions, theoretical properties, and empirical performance of these methods. We propose three new methods that provide robust causal estimation based on the P-FUNCTION and GPS. While our proposed P-FUNCTION-based estimator preforms well, we generally advise caution in that all available methods can be biased by model misspecification and extrapolation. In a related line of research, we consider adjustment for posttreatment covariates in causal inference. Even in a randomized experiment, observations might have different compliance performance under treatment and control assignment. This posttreatment covariate cannot be adjusted using standard statistical methods. We review the principal stratification framework which allows for modeling this effect as part of its Bayesian hierarchical models. We generalize the current model to add the possibility of adjusting for pretreatment covariates. We also propose a new estimator of the average treatment effect over the entire population. In a third line of research, we discuss the spectral line detection problem in high energy astrophysics. We carefully review how this problem can be statistically formulated as a precise hypothesis test with point null hypothesis, why a usual likelihood ratio test does not apply for problem of this nature, and a doable fix to correctly

  1. Traffic-related air pollution and childhood obesity in an Italian birth cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fioravanti, Sara; Cesaroni, Giulia; Badaloni, Chiara; Michelozzi, Paola; Forastiere, Francesco; Porta, Daniela

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is associated with several adverse health outcomes in children, such as respiratory illnesses and cognitive development impairment. There are suggestions of an effect of traffic-related air pollution on the occurrence of childhood obesity, but the results are not consistent. The aim of the study is to analyse whether air pollution and vehicular traffic exposure, during the first four years of life, influence obesity- related measures among 4 and 8-year-old children from a prospective birth cohort in Rome. A cohort of newborns, enrolled in 2003-2004 within the GASPII project, was followed at 4 and 8 years of age with parental interviews and clinical examinations. Air pollution was assessed at residential address using Land Use Regression models (for NO 2 , NOx, PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PMcoarse, PM2.5 absorbance and one traffic variable (Total traffic load of all roads in a 100m buffer)). The outcomes under study were body mass index (BMI Z-scores according to WHO recommendations, considered both categorical and continuous) measured at 4 and 8 years, and, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, total and HDL cholesterol measured at 8 years. The associations were evaluated through both cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches, using logistic regression models, Generalized Estimating Equation models (GEE) and linear regression models, as appropriate. Moreover, Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) methodology was used to account for selection bias at enrolment and at follow-up. A total of 719 infants were enrolled and 581 (80.8%) and 499 (69.4%) were followed at 4 and 8 years, respectively. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was 9.3% and 36.9% at 4 and 8 years. No evidence of an association was found between vehicular traffic and being overweight/obese. Similarly, there was no evidence of an association between exposure to air pollutants and all other ponderal excess parameters. The study shows no association between exposure to vehicular traffic and

  2. Influence of plant productivity over variability of soil respiration: a multi-scale approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curiel Yuste, J.

    2009-04-01

    .pumpanen@helsinki.fi) 18. Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire Durham, USA (andrew.richardson@unh.edu) 19. Institute of Plant Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland (nadine.ruehr@ipw.agrl.ethz.ch)