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Sample records for hare population dynamics

  1. Sinks without borders: Snowshoe hare dynamics in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Paul C.; Mills, L. Scott

    2009-01-01

    A full understanding of population dynamics of wide-ranging animals should account for the effects that movement and habitat use have on individual contributions to population growth or decline. Quantifying the per-capita, habitat-specific contribution to population growth can clarify the value of different patch types, and help to differentiate population sources from population sinks. Snowshoe hares, Lepus americanus, routinely use various habitat types in the landscapes they inhabit in the contiguous US, where managing forests for high snowshoe hare density is a priority for conservation of Canada lynx, Lynx canadensis. We estimated density and demographic rates via mark–recapture live trapping and radio-telemetry within four forest stand structure (FSS) types at three study areas within heterogeneous managed forests in western Montana. We found support for known fate survival models with time-varying individual covariates representing the proportion of locations in each of the FSS types, with survival rates decreasing as use of open young and open mature FSS types increased. The per-capita contribution to overall population growth increased with use of the dense mature or dense young FSS types and decreased with use of the open young or open mature FSS types, and relatively high levels of immigration appear to be necessary to sustain hares in the open FSS types. Our results support a conceptual model for snowshoe hares in the southern range in which sink habitats (open areas) prevent the buildup of high hare densities. More broadly, we use this system to develop a novel approach to quantify demographic sources and sinks for animals making routine movements through complex fragmented landscapes.

  2. Long-term patterns in European brown hare population dynamics in Denmark: effects of agriculture, predation and climate

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    Asferg Tommy

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Denmark and many other European countries, harvest records suggest a marked decline in European brown hare numbers, a decline often attributed to the agricultural practice. In the present study, we analyse the association between agricultural land-use, predator abundance and winter severity on the number of European brown hares harvested in Denmark in the years 1955 through 2000. Results Winter cereals had a significant negative association with European brown hare numbers. In contrast to this, root crop area was positively related to their numbers. Remaining crop categories were not significantly associated with the European brown hare numbers, though grass out of rotation tended to be positively related. The areas of root crop production and of grass out of rotation have been reduced by approximately 80% and 50%, respectively, while the area of winter cereals has increased markedly (>70%. However, European brown hare numbers were primarily negatively associated with the number of red fox. Finally, we also found a positive association between mild winters and European brown hare numbers. Conclusion The decline of Danish European brown hare populations can mainly be attributed to predation by red fox, but the development in agricultural land-use during the last 45 years have also affected the European brown hare numbers negatively. Additionally, though mild winters were beneficial to European brown hares, the increasing frequency of mild winters during the study period was insufficient to reverse the negative population trend.

  3. Widespread introgression of mountain hare genes into Fennoscandian brown hare populations.

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    Riikka Levänen

    Full Text Available In Fennoscandia, mountain hare (Lepus timidus and brown hare (Lepus europaeus hybridize and produce fertile offspring, resulting in gene flow across the species barrier. Analyses of maternally inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA show that introgression occur frequently, but unavailability of appropriate nuclear DNA markers has made it difficult to evaluate the scale- and significance for the species. The extent of introgression has become important as the brown hare is continuously expanding its range northward, at the apparent expense of the mountain hare, raising concerns about possible competition. We report here, based on analysis of 6833 SNP markers, that the introgression is highly asymmetrical in the direction of gene flow from mountain hare to brown hare, and that the levels of nuclear gene introgression are independent of mtDNA introgression. While it is possible that brown hares obtain locally adapted alleles from the resident mountain hares, the low levels of mountain hare alleles among allopatric brown hares suggest that hybridization is driven by stochastic processes. Interspecific geneflow with the brown hare is unlikely to have major impacts on mountain hare in Fennoscandia, but direct competition may.

  4. Long-term patterns in Iberian hare population dynamics in a protected area (Doñana National Park) in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula: Effects of weather conditions and plant cover.

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    Carro, Francisco; Soriguer, Ramón C

    2017-01-01

    The Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) is a widely distributed endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. To improve our knowledge of its population dynamics, the relative abundance and population trends of the Iberian hare were studied in the autumns of 1995-2012 in a protected area (Doñana National Park) by spotlighting in 2 different habitats: marshland and ecotones. The average relative abundance was 0.38 hare/km (SD = 0.63) in the marshland and 3.6 hares/km (SD = 4.09) in ecotones. The Iberian hare population exhibited local interannual fluctuations and a negative population trend during the study period (1995-2012). The results suggest that its populations are in decline. The flooding of parts of the marshland in June, July and October favor hare abundance in the ecotone. Hare abundance in the marshland increases as the flooded surface area increases in October. These effects are more pronounced if the rains are early (October) and partially flood the marsh. By contrast, when marsh grasses and graminoids are very high and thick (as measured using the aerial herbaceous biomass [biomass marshland] as a proxy), the abundance of hares decreases dramatically as does the area of the marsh that is flooded (in November). © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  5. Introgression of mountain hare (Lepus timidus mitochondrial DNA into wild brown hares (Lepus europaeus in Denmark

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    Villesen Palle

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Europe the mountain hare (Lepus timidus exists in Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of the Alps and in Eastern Europe, but not in Denmark. Interspecific hybridization has been demonstrated between native Swedish mountain hares and introduced brown hares (Lepus europaeus. During the data collection in a study concerning Danish brown hares we identified 16 hares with a single very divergent haplotype. Results Phylogenetic analysis shows that the divergent Danish haplotype is most closely related to the Swedish mountain hare. The frequency of Lepus timidus mtDNA haplotype in the Eastern Danish hare populations is estimated to 6%. Conclusion In contrast to what is known, the Danish hare populations are not pure L. europaeus populations but include introgressed brown hares with Swedish L. timidus mtDNA. The most probable explanation of this is natural migration or translocation of introgressed brown hares from Sweden. The impurity of hare populations has implications for conservation and population genetics.

  6. Identifying causes for population decline of the brown hare in agricultural landscapes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Trine-Lee Wincentz

    In recent decades the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) population in Denmark has undergone a substantial decline, but proximate causes are unknown and little is known about actual densities. In this thesis, hare populations are investigated with respect to age composition and reproductive parameters...... proportions in game bags have dropped significantly since the 1950ies. Simple matrix population models with variable juvenile recruitment predict the similar population growth rates as actually observed in the annual bag records. The model substantiates the supposition that declines in the Danish hare...

  7. Impact of climatic factors to the percentage of young in the population of brown hare (Lepus europaeus P in the Bačka district

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    Beuković Miloš

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic factors, especially temperature and precipitations, greatly affect the dynamics of the hare number and population. Climatic factors directly affect the physiological and reproductive processes of both individuals and entire populations, or indirectly, through the availability of food, competition with other species, predators and other. The age structure of the hare population at the end of the period of reproduction is an important indicator of the population growth that is used for planning the level of explotation of the hare population (hunting. The rational use of the hare's population is one of the most important protection procedures and it should be well monitored and controlled by the hunting professionals. We used the average monthly temperature and the sum of monthly precipitations in the hare reproductive period (March-September during ten years (2000 - 2009, together with the percent of young in the hare population, on the territory of Bačka, for multiple regression (stepwise analysis. Results of the regression analysis show an association between the percentage of young hares and the influence of climatic factors. The average temperature and sum of precipitation in June, are the strongest predictor of the percent of young in the hare’s population in Bačka. According to the coefficient of determination (R2=0.50 climatic parameters account for 50% of variance in the percentage of young hares in Bačka. The regression correlation coefficient of all factors was R=0.70, which is on the border line between medium and high correlation.

  8. Can snowshoe hares control treeline expansions?

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    Olnes, Justin; Kielland, Knut; Juday, Glenn P; Mann, Daniel H; Genet, Hélène; Ruess, Roger W

    2017-10-01

    Treelines in Alaska are advancing in elevation and latitude because of climate warming, which is expanding the habitat available for boreal wildlife species, including snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus). Snowshoe hares are already present in tall shrub communities beyond treeline and are the main browser of white spruce (Picea glauca), the dominant tree species at treeline in Alaska. We investigated the processes involved in a "snowshoe hare filter" to white spruce establishment near treeline in Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. We modeled the pattern of spruce establishment from 1970 to 2009 and found that fewer spruce established during periods of high hare abundance. Multiple factors interact to influence browsing of spruce, including the hare cycle, snow depth and the characteristics of surrounding vegetation. Hares are abundant at treeline and may exclude spruce from otherwise optimal establishment sites, particularly floodplain locations with closed shrub canopies. The expansion of white spruce treeline in response to warming climate will be strongly modified by the spatial and temporal dynamics of the snowshoe hare filter. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. Parasitic infections of wild rabbits and hares

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    Ilić Tamara

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the most important parasitic infections of wild rabbits and hares, which harmful effect in this animal population is manifested as a gradual weakening of the immune system, reduction in fertility, weight loss and constant exhaustion. Order of Lagomorpha (hares or lagomorphs belongs to superorder of higher mammals which includes the family of rabbits (Leporidae which are represented in Europe as well as the family of whistleblowers (Ochotonidae which live only in North America and Northern regions of Asia. The most important representatives of Leporidae family are European hare (Lepus europeus and wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus. The most important endoparasitosis of hares and wild rabbits are: coccidiosis, encephalitozoonosis (nosemosis, toxoplasmosis, sarcocystosis, giardiasis, cryptosporidiosis, protostrongylosis, trichostrngylodosis, passalurosis, anoplocephalidosis, cysticercosis and fasciolosis. The most frequent ectoparasites of rabbits and wild hares are fleas, lice and ticks. Reduction in hare population, which is noticed in whole Europe including Serbia, is caused by changed living conditions, quantitatively and qualitatively insufficient nutrition, increased use of herbicides as well as various infectious diseases and the diseases of parasitic etiology. Since wild rabbits and hares pose a threat to health of domestic rabbits and people, knowledge of parasitic fauna of these wild animals is of extreme epizootiological and epidemiological importance.

  10. Habitat use and home range traits of resident and relocated hares (Lepus europaeus, Pallas

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    Marco Bagliacca

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to know the habitat preferences and home range of resident and relocated brown hares during the no hunting period. The trial was carried out in a protected area (PA and in a free hunting territory (FHT, both located in Florence province. During captures 21 hares were equipped with a necklace radio tag: 7 hares, resident group, were released in the same area of capture and 14 hares, relocated group, were relocated in six different locations within the FHT. The effect of place of release was analyzed by ANOVA and/or non parametric methods. Results showed that the home ranges of the resident group were characterised by a greater presence of fallow land and shrub land than relocated group (P< 0.05. Home range sizes and Max distances from the releasing sites differed between the two groups. Resident hares preferred landscape characterized by a higher density of patches than the relocated hares (152 vs. 70 n/100ha, 43 vs. 12 n/100ha, 4703 vs. 8142 sq.m respectively; P<0.01. The landscape structure indexes, the home range sizes and the maximum distance from the releasing sites suggest that the relocated hares even if released in suited habitats, will move from their releasing point to look for better habitats. Landscape with most complexity are preferred from the resident hare, and this result should be consider when a project to reintroduction of this lagomorph in a territory is programmed, or when it is necessary to improve the dynamic of a natural population.

  11. Risky behavior and its effect on survival: snowshoe hare behavior under varying moonlight conditions

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    Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2018-01-01

    Predation and predation risk can exert strong influences on the behavior of prey species. However, risk avoidance behaviors may vary among populations of the same species. We studied a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) near the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania. This population occupies different habitat types, experiences different environmental conditions, and are exposed to different predator species and densities than northern hare populations; therefore, they might exhibit differences in risk avoidance behaviors. We analyzed hare survival, movement rates, and habitat use under different levels of predation risk, as indexed by moonlight. Similar to previous work, we found snowshoe hare survival decreased with increased moon illumination during the winter, but we found differences in behavioral responses to increased predation risk. We found that snowshoe hares did not reduce movement rates during high‐risk nights, but instead found that hares selected areas with denser canopy cover, compared to low‐risk nights. We suggest that behavioral plasticity in response to predation risk allows populations of the same species to respond to localized conditions.

  12. European brown hare syndrome virus in free-ranging European brown hares from Argentina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frolich, K.; Kujawski, G.E.J.G.; Rudolph, M.

    2003-01-01

    From 1998 to 2000, serum samples of 80 shot European brown hares (Lepus europaeus) from Argentina were examined for antibodies against European brown hare syndrome virus (EBHSV) and 80 spleen samples were tested for EBHSV-antigen by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Nine hares were posit...... in these hares. This is the first report of antibodies to EBHSV, EBHSV-antigen, and electron microscopy findings in free-ranging European brown hares from South America....

  13. Spatial behaviour and survival of translocated wild brown hares

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    Fischer, C.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The fragility of many populations of brown hares in Western Europe is a concern for managers, hunters and naturalists. We took advantage of a locally high density population to use wild individuals to restock areas where the species had disappeared or was close to disappearing. The aim of the project was to assess the evolution of the spatial behaviour after release using radio–tracking. Over 150 wild brown hares were translocated, one third of which were fitted with radio collars. In addition, fifteen individuals were radio–tagged and released back into the source population as a control. Most individuals settled in less than two months and their seasonal home range, once settled, was similar to that observed in the source population. Mean duration of tracking was not significantly different between the two groups. Moreover, two years after the last translocation, tagged individuals can still be observed, but most hares present are not tagged, which indicates natural reproduction of the released individuals. The translocation of wild individuals thus appears to give encouraging results.

  14. Introgression of mountain hare (Lepus timidus) mitochondrial DNA into wild brown hares (Lepus europaeus) in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fredsted, Tina; Jensen, Trine-Lee Wincentz; Villesen, Palle

    2006-01-01

    Background In Europe the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) exists in Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of the Alps and in Eastern Europe, but not in Denmark. Interspecific hybridization has been demonstrated between native Swedish mountain hares and introduced brown hares (Lepus europaeus......). During the data collection in a study concerning Danish brown hares we identified 16 hares with a single very divergent haplotype. Results Phylogenetic analysis shows that the divergent Danish haplotype is most closely related to the Swedish mountain hare. The frequency of Lepus timidus mtDNA haplotype...

  15. Molecular Markers for Genetic Diversity Studies of European Hare (Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778 Populations

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    Noémi Soós

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give an overview of different molecular techniques which have been used in studies concerning population genetic issues of Lepus species and specifically of L. europaeus. The importance of these researches is ever-growing as the European populations of the brown hare have suffered several falloffs as a consequent upon both natural and anthropogenic effects. With developing tools and techniques molecular genetics have become the centrepiece of population genetics and conservation biology. Nucleic acid methods based on both bi- and uniparentally inherited DNA (allozymes, microsatellites, Y chromosome, mtDNA are often used to study genetic structure, diversity and phylogeography of different species’ populations due to their effectiveness in identifying genetic variability

  16. Is there a difference between hare syphilis and rabbit syphilis? Cross infection experiments between rabbits and hares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lumeij, J.T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073286826; Mikalová, L.; Smajs, D.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Cross infection of rabbits and hares with Treponema paraluiscuniculi from rabbits and the related microorganism from hares, which was provisionally named "Treponema paraluisleporis", revealed that T. paraluiscuniculi affects rabbits clinically, but only causes seroconversion in hares

  17. Factors affecting harvest on a Brown hare population (Lepus europaeus in central Italy

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    Luca Giardini

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Bag data (number of Brown hares shot related to the 1987 - 1993 period were obtained from the hunting preserve management book (1374 hectares, in central Italy, Lazio Region. The correlation between the daily number of hunting teams, shooting days, and non-hunting days for the same period, was performed by means of correlation and ANOVA tests. A first analysis shows a significant direct correlation between daily catches and the daily number of hunting teams. Further analyses showed that, although the number of teams did not vary within the year taken into account, the mean number of hares shot decreased over the shooting season. Moreover, when considering the entire 7-year period, data showed that, while the number of teams fluctuate from year to year, the number of hares shot remains quite stable. A positive (direct correlation was found between the yearly number of non hunting days and the number of hares shot in the same year.

  18. Potential role of hares in the spread of liver fluke in the Netherlands

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    Walker, S.M.; Johnston, C.; Hoey, E.M.; Fairweather, I.; Borgsteede, F.H.M.; Gaasenbeek, C.P.H.; Prodohl, P.A.; Trudgett, A.

    2011-01-01

    Hares (Lepus europeanus) sharing pasture with cattle from six locations in the Netherlands were examined for the presence of liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) and shown to have prevalences of infection ranging from 0 to 41%. The mitochondrial haplotypes of liver flukes present in the hare populations

  19. Synchrony in the snowshoe hare cycle in Northwestern North America, 1970-2012

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    C.J. Krebs; K. Kielland; J.P Bryant; M. O' Donoghue; F. Doyle; C. McIntyre; D. DiFolco; N. Berg; S. Carriere; R. Boonstra; S. Boutin; A. J. Kenney; D. G. Reid; K. Bodony; J. Putera; H. K. Timm; T. Burke.

    2013-01-01

    Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) fluctuate in 9–10 year cycles throughout much of their North American range. Regional synchrony has been assumed to be the rule for these cycles, so that hare populations in virtually all of northwestern North America have been assumed to be in phase. We gathered qualitative and quantitative data on...

  20. Snowshoe hare multi-level habitat use in a fire-adapted ecosystem

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    Gigliotti, Laura C.; Jones, Benjamin C.; Lovallo, Matthew J.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2018-01-01

    Prescribed burning has the potential to improve habitat for species that depend on pyric ecosystems or other early successional vegetation types. For species that occupy diverse plant communities over the extent of their range, response to disturbances such as fire might vary based on post-disturbance vegetation dynamics among plant communities. Although responses of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) to fire have been studied in conifer-dominated forests in northern parts of the species’ range, there is a lack of information on snowshoe hare habitat use in fire-dependent communities in southern parts of their range. We used global positioning system (GPS) and very high frequency (VHF) radio-collars to monitor the habitat use of 32 snowshoe hares in a scrub-oak (Quercus ilicifolia)-pitch pine (Pinus rigida) barrens complex in northeastern Pennsylvania where prescribed fire has been used for habitat restoration. The area contained stands that underwent prescribed burning 1–6 years prior to our study. Also, we investigated fine-scale determinants of habitat use within stands. We found that regardless of season, hares did not select for areas that had been burned within 6 years prior. Hares primarily used stands of older scrub oak, conifer, or hardwoods, which contained dense understory vegetation and canopy cover. Hare habitat use also was positively associated with stand edges. Our results suggest that hares do not respond to prescribed burning of scrub oak in the short-term. In addition, by focusing on structural determinants of habitat use, rather than broad-scale characteristics such as stand type, management strategies for snowshoe hares can be adapted over the extent of their range despite the multitude of different land cover types across which the species occurs. 

  1. Studies of ecomorphological variations of the European hare (Lepus europaeus in Turkey

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    Demirbaş Y.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hares (Lepus spp. are widely distributed across the globe and are adapted to diverse climatic conditions. In order to study the ecomorphological variations of hares from Turkey, the body and cranial measurements and body weight, as well as coat color types, of 138 hares collected from all over Turkey between 2006 and 2012, were examined. Statistically significant differences between regional samples (p <0.05, ANOVA only in terms of body weight and hindfoot length were found; however, there were a good number of external phenotypes, particularly in terms of coat color variants of the hare specimens. Furthermore, populations had similar variations in terms of morphometric measurement, body weight and coat coloration between different geographical regions. Turkish hares did not exhibit clinal variations from south to north in body and cranial measurements depending on the mean annual temperatures and precipitation. Therefore, it was assumed that all of these variations might be a polymorphism related to the local adaptations and high level of admixture of gene pools in Anatolia.

  2. Spillover Events of Infection of Brown Hares (Lepus europaeus) with Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Type 2 Virus (RHDV2) Caused Sporadic Cases of an European Brown Hare Syndrome-Like Disease in Italy and Spain.

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    Velarde, R; Cavadini, P; Neimanis, A; Cabezón, O; Chiari, M; Gaffuri, A; Lavín, S; Grilli, G; Gavier-Widén, D; Lavazza, A; Capucci, L

    2017-12-01

    Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a lagovirus that can cause fatal hepatitis (rabbit haemorrhagic disease, RHD) with mortality of 80-90% in farmed and wild rabbits. Since 1986, RHDV has caused outbreaks in rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Europe, but never in European brown hares (Lepus europaeus, EBH). In 2010, a new RHDV-related virus, called RHDV2, emerged in Europe, causing extended epidemics because it largely overcame the immunity to RHDV present in most rabbit populations. RHDV2 also was identified in Cape hare (Lepus capensis subsp. mediterraneus) and in Italian hare (Lepus corsicanus). Here, we describe two distinct incidents of RHDV2 infection in EBH that occurred in Italy (2012) and Spain (2014). The two RHDV2 strains caused macroscopic and microscopic lesions similar to European brown hare syndrome (EBHS) in hares, and they were genetically related to other RHDV2 strains in Europe. EBHs are common in Europe, often sharing habitat with rabbits. They likely have been exposed to high levels of RHDV2 during outbreaks in rabbits in recent years, yet only two incidents of RHDV2 in EBHs have been found in Italy and Spain, suggesting that EBHs are not a primary host. Instead, they may act as spillover hosts in situations when infection pressure is high and barriers between rabbits and hares are limited, resulting in occasional infections causing EBHS-like lesions. The serological survey of stocked hare sera taken from Italian and Spanish hare populations provided an understanding of naturally occurring RHDV2 infection in the field confirming its sporadic occurrence in EBH. Our findings increase the knowledge on distribution, host range and epidemiology of RHDV2. © 2016 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  3. Large-scale lagovirus disease outbreaks in European brown hares (Lepus europaeus) in France caused by RHDV2 strains spatially shared with rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Gall-Reculé, Ghislaine; Lemaitre, Evelyne; Bertagnoli, Stéphane; Hubert, Céline; Top, Sokunthea; Decors, Anouk; Marchandeau, Stéphane; Guitton, Jean-Sébastien

    2017-10-28

    Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a lagovirus that causes rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In 2010, a new genotype called RHDV2 emerged in France. It exhibits a larger host range than classical RHDV strains by sporadically infecting different hare species, including the European hare (Lepus europaeus). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that closely related RHDV2 strains circulate locally in both hares and rabbits, and therefore that RHDV2 strains infecting hares do not belong to a lineage that has evolved only in this species. We showed that RHDV2 is widely distributed in France and that it was responsible for more than a third of cases of lagovirus disease in European hare populations in 2015. The oldest RHDV2 positive hare was sampled in November 2013 and we reported two hares co-infected by EBHSV and RHDV2. All together, our results raise important epidemiological and evolutionary issues. In particular, along with the potential emergence of recombinant EBHSV/RHDV2 strains in hares, the enlargement of the host range changes the host population structure of RHDV2 and may alter the impact of the virus on rabbit and hare populations.

  4. Seasonal Effects of Habitat on Sources and Rates of Snowshoe Hare Predation in Alaskan Boreal Forests.

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    Dashiell Feierabend

    Full Text Available Survival and predation of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus has been widely studied, yet there has been little quantification of the changes in vulnerability of hares to specific predators that may result from seasonal changes in vegetation and cover. We investigated survival and causes of mortalities of snowshoe hares during the late increase, peak, and decline of a population in interior Alaska. From June 2008 to May 2012, we radio-tagged 288 adult and older juvenile hares in early successional and black spruce (Picea mariana forests and, using known-fate methods in program MARK, evaluated 85 survival models that included variables for sex, age, and body condition of hares, as well as trapping site, month, season, year, snowfall, snow depth, and air temperature. We compared the models using Akaike's information criterion with correction for small sample size. Model results indicated that month, capture site, and body condition were the most important variables in explaining survival rates. Survival was highest in July, and more generally during summer, when alternative prey was available to predators of hares. Low survival rates coincided with molting periods, breeding activity in the spring, and the introduction of juveniles to the sample population in the fall. We identified predation as the cause of mortality in 86% of hare deaths. When the source of predation could be determined, hares were killed more often by goshawks (Accipiter gentilis than other predators in early successional forest (30%, and more often by lynx (Lynx canadensis than other predators in black spruce forest (31%. Great horned owls (Bubo virginianus and coyotes (Canis latrans represented smaller proportions of hare predation, and non-predatory causes were a minor source (3% of mortality. Because hares rely on vegetative cover for concealment from predators, we measured cover in predation sites and habitats that the hares occupied and concluded that habitat type had a

  5. Stress evaluation in hares (Lepus europaeus Pallas captured for traslocation

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    Antonio Lavazza

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available With the aim to evaluate the capturing techniques some haematic and physiological parameters were studied to discrim- inate stressed hares from non stressed hares. A total of 66 wild hares (experimental group were sampled in 14 different non-hunting areas, where hares are usually captured for later release in low-density areas. In the same season a total of 30 hares (about 1 year old, reared in cages and thus showing a reduced fear of man, were sampled (control group. In each area the hares were captured by cours- ing with 3-4 dogs (greyhounds or lurches. The dogs were released by the different hunter teams to find and drive into trammel nets any hare that was seen running. After capture, the hares remained inside darkened, wooden capture-boxes for a variable period of time before blood drawing. For blood sample collection all the hares were physically restrained and their eyes immediately covered. Blood, always collected within 1-2 minutes, was drawn from the auricular vein. Blood samples (plasma were analysed for glucose, AST, ALT, CPK and cortisol concentrations. Body temperature, heart and respiratory rate, sex, and age were evaluated in each hare. The effect of origin, sex and age on haematic and physiolog- ical parameters was analysed by ANOVA. Every measured parameter of the hares bearing to the capture group or the control group (reared was then subjected to stepwise and to discriminant analysis, in order to select the groups of stressed (discriminated by the controls and non-stressed hares. CPK, AST and glucose were found to be the best parameters for distinguishing stressed from non-stressed hares. The intensive exercise suffered by the wild hares induced a depletion of energetic reserves, so that most of the captured hares showed lower glucose and higher CPK activity in the plasma, probably due to muscle damage (P< 0.05. After reclassi- fying the hares in the two groups of stressed and non stressed hares, the reference values (means

  6. Habitat use and food habits of snowshoe hares associated with a reclaimed strip mine in interior Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, C.L.

    1998-01-01

    The value of reclaimed coal stripmine spoils as snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) habitat in interior Alaska was examined. Hare density in 3 cover types (tall shrub, conifer forest, revegetated lands) was determined using the pellet plot method. Hare food habits were determined via microhistological examination of fecal material. Snowshoe hares used the tall shrub cover type more than any other habitat examined. Hare density in the shrub zone was 10/ha in winter and 18/ha in summer. Shrubs (mainly willow species) comprised the major portion of the summer diet (69%), while spruce made up 51% of the winter diet. Based on dietary data and habitat use, the long-term loss of coniferous forests and tall shrubs due to mining, and the lack of emphasis on the re-establishment of woody vegetation in present reclamation procedures; will greatly reduce and possibly eliminate snowshoe hare populations on large-scale surface coal mines in the northern boreal regions

  7. EVALUATION OF HEMATOLOGY AND BIOCHEMICAL PARAMETERS OF FREE-LIVING EUROPEAN BROWN HARE

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    Miriam Trusinová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of our study was to determine blood hematological and serum chemistry values for a population of free-living European brown hares and to investigate differences related to age. The European brown hare (Lepus europaeus is a species of hare naturally occurring in northern, central and western parts of Europe and southwestern Asia. The blood samples were collected from 25 hares (15 adults and 10 juveniles shot during regular hunting seasons in 4 hunting grounds located in Danube lowland. Following parameters were analyzed: WBC, LYM, GRA, RBC, HGB, HCT, MCV, MCH, MCHC on blood samples, and glucose, total proteins, urea, bilirubin, cholesterol, Ca, P, Na, K, Cl on serum. WBC count was higher in adults (2.86.109.l-1 than in young hares (2.71.109.l-1. RBC count and HGB concentration were higher in young hares (RBC=8.94.1012.l-1, HGB=184.43 g.l-1 than in adults (RBC=8.38.1012.l-1, HGB=177.59 g.l-1. No significant differences were found in other hematology parameters. Biochemical indicators of age were evaluated and an increased content of glucose in adult individuals was found (a = 9.39 mmol.l-1, j = 8.48 mmol.l-1. The increased level of urea in blood serum was observed as almost significant in juvenile individuals (a = 6.11 mmol.l-1, j = 6.94 mmol.l-1, but also reduction of bilirubin was observed (a = 5.19 mmol.l-1, j = 4.23 mmol.l-1. Other monitored biochemical parameters were fairly balanced. All evaluated hematology and serum chemistry parameters of brown hares were within the physiological range with relatively low differences.

  8. Endoparasites of the European hare (Lepus europaeus (Pallas, 1778 in central Italy

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    Sergi V.

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Brown hare (Lepus europaeus populations in Europe have declined through decades due to several, but not clear yet, factors. Parasite infections and diseases are some of the causes that directly affected the survival and breeding rates of animal population.

  9. Hare's preference utilitarianism: an overview and critique

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    Mauro Cardoso Simões

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available My purpose in this paper is to summarize some aspects of utilitarianism and to provide a general overview of Hare's preference utilitarianism, followed by a critique of Hare's preference theory.

  10. Simulating Brown hare (Lepus europaeus Pallas dispersion: a tool for wildlife management of wide areas

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    Andrea Amici

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The second half of the 20th century was characterised by intense processes of urbanisation, industrialisation and agricultural mechanisation, leading to a fragmentation of the agricultural and forest landscape. This, in turn, reduced the bio-permeability of the territory and affected the dispersion of many wild species. Brown hare (Lepus europeus dispersion is dramatically affected by habitat fragmentation, presence of predators, intense tillage and elevated hunting pressure. Consequently, the only stable populations of hare are often in no-hunting areas where wildlife management is efficient. It is necessary, therefore, to identify not only additional areas suitable for reproduction, but also the most suitable dispersion pathways for hares, in order to optimise management. In the present study, by means of a Geographic Information System (GIS, a deterministic hare suitability model was developed on the basis of a multicriterial approach and fuzzy logic. Subsequently, a friction surface was derived from the suitability map in order to describe the land bio-permeability. Finally, on the basis of species potential, the spread of hares from stable population areas (source areas to the remaining territory was simulated. The area of study was the province of Viterbo (central Italy. The suitability map showed good discrimination ability (ROC=0.705. The hare dispersion simulation map allowed the potential spreading of this species throughout the provincial territory to be analysed. Isolated or less connected zones were highlighted, allowing the distribution of habitat enhancements, and/or the institution of new no-hunting areas devoted to the reproduction and consequent spread of hares throughout the territory, to be localised. The presented flexible and reiterable methodology could prove useful for wildlife management and hunting planning over a wide area. It would thus provide an important contribution to reducing the importance of animal

  11. Reducing visual stimulations in european hares (Lepus europaeus Pallas captured for translocation

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    Marco Ferretti

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Stress may be an important variable affecting the survival of the captured hares, for this reason the Authors studied the effect of the use of a blindfolding hood applied to the hares immediately after net trapping. A total of 119 hares were captured by coursing with 3-4 dogs (greyhounds or lurchers in no hunting areas of Tuscany. Immediately after net trapping 38 hares were blindfolded with a hood and 81 were normally handled to the wooden darkened capture- boxes without blinding their eyes (control. From all the hares a sample of blood was collected within 1-2 min by the auricular vein. Blood samples were analyzed for haemocromocytometry and metabolic profile determination. Data were analyzed by ANOVA. Sub-clinically stressed hares were discriminated from nonstressed hares by the use of the discriminant function based on CK, AST and glucose and the differences were tested by chi2c Results showed that body temperature, heart and respiratory rates, glucose, cholesterol, CK, AST, ALT, BUN, total protein and some haemocromo-cytometric parameters were significantly higher in captured hares without blindfold. The incidence of subclinically stressed hares was 26% in the hares equipped with the blindfold and 81% in the hares without blindfold (chi2c=32.98, P<0.0001 (presence of subclinical stress discriminated by the use of a discriminant function based on CPK, AST and glucose. For this reason the procedures designed for the translocation of the hares could take advantage by the use of a blindfold which should be applied to the hares immediately after their trapping.

  12. DNA markers for identifying individual snowshoe hares using field-collected pellets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael K. Schwartz; Kristine L. Pilgrim; Kevin S. McKelvey; Pilar T. Rivera; Leonard F. Ruggiero

    2007-01-01

    Snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) abundance has been of interest to wildlife biologists, as hares are essential prey items for many rare and endangered predators. Snowshoe hare abundance has most commonly been estimated through indices such as pellet counts. While pellet counts may be useful in the areas they are developed and when hares are dense,...

  13. Evidence for range contraction of snowshoe hare in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rathbun, Stephen L.; Vreeland, J.K.; Grove, Deborah; Kanapaux, William J.

    2016-01-01

    In Pennsylvania, Lepus americanus (Snowshoe Hare) is near the southern limits of its range and at risk of range contraction because of loss of early-successional forest and impacts of climate change. We used hunter-harvest data to investigate changes in the distribution of Snowshoe Hare in Pennsylvania (1983–2011), forest inventory and land-use data to assess changes in amount and distribution of early-successional forest (1988–2011), and occupancy modeling (2004) to identify habitat and climate variables that explain the current distribution of Snowshoe Hare. We determined presence of Snowshoe Hare based on visual sightings, observations of tracks, and DNA analysis of fecal pellets, and used repeated visits to sampling sites and occupancy models to estimate occupancy rates (Ψ). Hunter-harvest data indicated the range of Snowshoe Hare in Pennsylvania contracted towards northwestern and northeastern portions of the state. Based on occupancy modeling, Snowshoe Hare were most likely to occupy early-successional and mixed deciduous-coniferous forest types and areas with colder winter temperatures, which coincided with the distribution of hunter harvests. Among the 4 forest types, we estimated Ψ = 0.52-0.79 and Ψ = 0.10-0.32 where winter temperatures were coldest and warmest, respectively. Total forest loss was Pennsylvania may decline from 0.27 in 2004 to 0.10–0.18 by 2050–2059, depending on the climate model. The range of Snowshoe Hare in Pennsylvania has contracted to regions of Pennsylvania with the coldest winter temperatures and most persistent snowpack, and based on projected climate change, our results suggest further range contraction of Snowshoe Hare in Pennsylvania.

  14. Optimal strategies and complexity: a theoretical analysis of the anti-predatory behavior of the hare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focardi, S; Rizzotto, M

    1999-09-01

    Predator-prey relationships involving rabbits and hares are widely studied at a long-term population level, while the short-term ethological interactions between one predator and one prey are less well documented. We use a physiologically-based model of hare behavior, developed in the framework of artificial intelligence studies, to analyse its sophisticated anti-predatory behavior. The hares use to stand to the fox in order to inform it that its potential prey is alerted. The behavior of the hare is characterized by specific standing and flushing distances. We show that both hare survival probability and body condition depend on habitat cover, as well as on the ability of the predator to approach-undetected-a prey. We study two anti-predatory strategies, one based on the maximization of the survival probability and the other on the maximization of the body conditions of the hare. Despite the fact that the two strategies are not independent, they are characterized by quite different behavioral patterns. Field estimates of flushing and standing distances are consistent with survival maximization. There exists an optimal anti-predatory strategy, characterized by a flushing distance of 20 m and a standing distance of 30 m, which is optimal in a large set of environmental conditions with a sharp fitness advantage with respect to suboptimal strategies. These results improve our understanding of the anti-predatory behavior of the hare and lend credibility to the optimality approach in the behavioral analysis, showing that even for complex organisms, characterized by a large network of internal constraints and feedback, it is possible to identify simple optimal strategies with a large potential for selection.

  15. HARE: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mckie, Jim

    2012-01-09

    This report documents the results of work done over a 6 year period under the FAST-OS programs. The first effort was called Right-Weight Kernels, (RWK) and was concerned with improving measurements of OS noise so it could be treated quantitatively; and evaluating the use of two operating systems, Linux and Plan 9, on HPC systems and determining how these operating systems needed to be extended or changed for HPC, while still retaining their general-purpose nature. The second program, HARE, explored the creation of alternative runtime models, building on RWK. All of the HARE work was done on Plan 9. The HARE researchers were mindful of the very good Linux and LWK work being done at other labs and saw no need to recreate it. Even given this limited funding, the two efforts had outsized impact: _ Helped Cray decide to use Linux, instead of a custom kernel, and provided the tools needed to make Linux perform well _ Created a successor operating system to Plan 9, NIX, which has been taken in by Bell Labs for further development _ Created a standard system measurement tool, Fixed Time Quantum or FTQ, which is widely used for measuring operating systems impact on applications _ Spurred the use of the 9p protocol in several organizations, including IBM _ Built software in use at many companies, including IBM, Cray, and Google _ Spurred the creation of alternative runtimes for use on HPC systems _ Demonstrated that, with proper modifications, a general purpose operating systems can provide communications up to 3 times as effective as user-level libraries Open source was a key part of this work. The code developed for this project is in wide use and available at many places. The core Blue Gene code is available at https://bitbucket.org/ericvh/hare. We describe details of these impacts in the following sections. The rest of this report is organized as follows: First, we describe commercial impact; next, we describe the FTQ benchmark and its impact in more detail; operating

  16. Do Soils affect Brown Hare (Lepus europaeus abundance in agricultural habitats?

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    Francesco Santilli

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In recent years, much research on brown hare (Lepus europaeus, Pallas 1778 ecology has been conducted in Europe to identify habitat-species relationships and the reasons for the decline in hare populations that have occurred since the 1960s. However, very few studies have considered the influence of soil texture on the abundance of this species in agricultural habitats. In this paper we examine the relationship between winter brown hare density in protected areas (game refuges in four provinces of the Tuscany region (central Italy and soil texture. Results show that hares reach higher densities in areas characterized by "loam" soils compared to areas where soils are richer in clay. Although this relationship is probably complex, soil texture may indirectly affect brown hare populations by influencing the temperature and moisture of the ground and influencing the timing of farming operations (tillage. Riassunto Il suolo influenza l’abbondanza della lepre Lepus europaeus negli ambienti agricoli? Negli ultimi anni sono state effettuate numerose ricerche sull’ecologia della lepre europea Lepus europaeus, al fine di evidenziare le relazioni fra questa specie ed il tipo di habitat e di comprendere i motivi del declino avvenuto a partire dagli anni ’60. Ciononostante pochi studi hanno preso in considerazione l’influenza del tipo di suolo sulla consistenza di questo lagomorfo negli ambienti agricoli. Nel presente lavoro viene esaminata la relazione fra la densità invernale della lepre all’interno delle zone di ripopolamento e cattura di quattro province toscane e la tessitura del suolo di queste aree. E’ stato riscontrato che le lepri raggiungono densità più elevate in aree dove predominano i suoli franchi rispetto ad aree dove risultano più argillosi. Sebbene questa relazione sia probabilmente complessa, la tessitura del suolo potrebbe influenzare

  17. Vertebrobasilar System in the European Hare

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    Flešárová S.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to describe the arterial arrangement of the cervical spinal cord in the hare using the corrosion technique. The study was carried out on 10 adult European hares (Lepus Europeus. The arterial system of the cervical spinal cord was injected using Batson’s corrosion casting kit No. 17. The fusion of the bilateral vertebral arteries was found in 70% of the cases without a connecting branch and in 30% of the cases with one connecting branch just posterior to the fusion. The ventral spinal artery was in connection with the right vertebral artery in 60% of the cases and by means of an anastomosis of two spinal branches arising from the bilateral vertebral arteries in 40% of the cases. Based on the results of this study, it is possible to conclude that there is a high variability of the blood supply to the cervical part of the spinal cord in the hare.

  18. Utilitarianism and Double Standards: A Discussion of R. M. Hare's "Moral Thinking."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annas, Julia

    1982-01-01

    Criticizes R. M. Hare's theory of moral thinking. Hare identifies two levels of moral thinking: critical and intuitive thinking. The author argues that Hare's theory suggests a double standard and makes moral conflicts appear trivial. (AM)

  19. Hare e o Problema da Ladeira Escorregadia

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    Charles Feldhaus

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with Richard Hare's Kantian Utilitarianism aplied to bioethics and discusses his attempt to solve the problem of the slippery-slope. The distinction between two levels of moral thinking, the intuitive and the critical, is appointed by the philosopher as a possible solution. The question, then, is the following: can Hare really avoid the slippery-slope problem? The answer seems to be "no".

  20. Project Roadkill: Linking European Hare vehicle collisions with landscape-structure using datasets from citizen scientists and professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stretz, Carina; Heigl, Florian; Steiner, Wolfgang; Bauer, Thomas; Suppan, Franz; Zaller, Johann G.

    2015-04-01

    Road networks can implicate lots of negative effects for wildlife. One of the most important indication for strong landscape fragmentation are roadkills, i.e. collisions between motorised vehicles and wild animals. A species that is often involved in roadkills is the European hare (Lepus europaeus). European hare populations are in decline throughout Europe since the 1960s and classified as "potentially endangered" in the Red Data Book of Austria. Therefore, it is striking that in the hunting year 2013/14, 19,343 hares were killed on Austrian roads translating to 53 hare roadkills each day, or rather about two per hour. We hypothesized, that (I) hare-vehicle-collisions occur as an aggregation of events (hotspot), (II) the surrounding landscape influences the number of roadkilled hares and (III) roadkill data from citizen science projects and data from professionals (e.g. hunters, police) are convergent. Investigations on the surrounding landscape of the scenes of accidents will be carried out using land cover data derived from Landsat satellite images. Information on road kills are based on datasets from two different sources. One dataset stems from the citizen science project "Roadkill" (www.citizen-science.at/roadkill) where participants report roadkill findings via a web application. The second dataset is from a project where roadkill data were collected by the police and by hunters. Besides answering our research questions, findings of this project also allow the location of dangerous roadkill hotspots for animals and could be implemented in nature conservation actions.

  1. An ecological assessment of Hispid Hare Caprolagus hispidus (Mammalia: Lagomorpha: Leporidae in Manas National Park, Assam, India

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    Naba K. Nath

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study of the Hispid Hare Caprolagus hispidus in the tall grassland habitat of Manas National Park, Assam during 2009–2010 is the first detailed assessment in northeastern India.  We assessed the status, distribution, habitat use and key threats to this rare and little studied lagomorph species.  After interviewing local forest staff, 20 grassland patches within a survey area of 2.65ha were selected and transects (50x2 m laid randomly to determine the presence/absence of Hispid Hare by recording pellets and other indirect evidence.  Hare presence was recorded in 17 grassland patches within transects dominated by Imperata cylindrica and Saccharum narenga.  Hispid Hare preferred dry savannah grasslands to wet alluvial grasslands during winter and avoided recently burned patches due to lack of cover and food.  The distribution pattern observed was clumped (s2/a = 6.2, with more evidence of Hispid Hare presence in areas where ground cover was dense, dry and away from water sources. Population density was estimated at 381.55 individuals/km2, which in comparison with other studies indicates that Manas National Park currently holds the highest density of Hispid Hare.  Habitat loss due to overgrazing, unsustainable thatch harvesting, burning of grassland, weed invasion, encroachment and hunting were identified as key threats which must be addressed to ensure survival of this threatened species in the Park.  

  2. The ecology of snowshoe hares in northern boreal forests [Chapter 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Hodges

    2000-01-01

    Snowshoe hares exhibit eight to 11 year population fluctuations across boreal North America, typically with an amplitude of 10 to 25 fold. These fluctuations are synchronous across the continent, with the most recent peak densities occurring in 1990 and 1991. The numeric cycle is driven by changes in survival and reproduction, with annual survival of adults...

  3. A phantom extinction? New insights into extinction dynamics of the Don-hare Lepus tanaiticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prost, S; Knapp, M; Flemmig, J; Hufthammer, A K; Kosintsev, P; Stiller, M; Hofreiter, M

    2010-09-01

    The Pleistocene to Holocene transition was accompanied by a worldwide extinction event affecting numerous mammalian species. Several species such as the woolly mammoth and the giant deer survived this extinction wave, only to go extinct a few thousand years later during the Holocene. Another example for such a Holocene extinction is the Don-hare, Lepus tanaiticus, which inhabited the Russian plains during the late glacial. After being slowly replaced by the extant mountain hare (Lepus timidus), it eventually went extinct during the middle Holocene. Here, we report the phylogenetic relationship of L. tanaiticus and L. timidus based on a 339-basepair (bp) fragment of the mitochondrial D-loop. Phylogenetic tree- and network reconstructions do not support L. tanaiticus and L. timidus being different species. Rather, we suggest that the two taxa represent different morphotypes of a single species and the extinction of 'L. tanaiticus' represents the disappearance of a local morphotype rather than the extinction of a species.

  4. Diets of black-tailed hares on the Hanford Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uresk, D.W.; Cline, J.F.; Rickard, W.H.

    1975-04-01

    A fecal pellet analyses showed that black-tailed hares (jackrabbits) were selective in plants chosen as food. The most abundant herbaceous plant, cheatgrass, was not found in the pellets. Sagebrush and bitterbrush, woody plants, were not an important part of the hares' diet. Forbs, rabbitbrush, and certain grass species were preferred foods. (auth)

  5. Naturalismo e existencialismo na teoria moral de Richard Hare

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    Marco Antônio Oliveira de Azevedo

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1677-2954.2009v8n2p247 Em um artigo de 1966, Amartya Sen procurou mostrar que mesmo Richard Hare, um devoto explícitodo antinaturalismo em ética, ainda que inadvertidamente, incorreu num tipo de naturalismo que Senintitulou de existencial. Neste breve artigo, traço um resumo dessa crítica à teoria de Hare, em especial,da chamada “Lei de Hume”, a qual Sen preferiu apropriadamente intitular “Regra de Hare”. Pretendomostrar como esse tipo peculiar de “existencialismo” nos conduz, ainda que sob o possível protesto deHare e seus seguidores, a conclusões subjetivistas e relativistas sobre a moralidade.

  6. In vitro study and comparison of caecal methanogenesis and fermentation pattern in the brown hare (Lepus europaeus and domestic rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus.

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    Dorota Miśta

    Full Text Available The brown hare and the domestic rabbit are mid-sized herbivorous mammals and hindgut fermenters, though their digestive physiologies differ in some traits. The objective of this study was to estimate and compare the caecal microbial activity in hares and rabbits via an analysis of the following end-products of in vitro caecal fermentation: methane, total gas production, short chain fatty acids and ammonia concentration. Hare caecal methanogenesis occurred at a much lower level (0.25 mmol/kg for samples incubated without substrate and 0.22 mmol/kg for samples incubated with substrate than that of the rabbit (15.49 and 11.73 mmol/kg, respectively (P<0.001. The impact of the substrate's presence on caecal methanogenesis was not significant, though its presence increased the total gas production during fermentation (P<0.001. Hare caecal microflora produced a lower short chain fatty acids concentration than did rabbit microorganisms (P<0.05. In unincubated hare samples, the short chain fatty acids concentration was 28.4 mmol/kg, whereas in unincubated rabbit samples, the short chain fatty acids concentration was 51.8 mmol/kg. The caecal fermentation pattern of the hare was characterised by higher propionate and isobutyrate molar proportions compared with those observed in rabbit caecum (P<0.01. No significant changes in the ammonia concentration in either rabbit or hare caecum were found. The results obtained indicate some differences in the activity of the microbial populations colonising the hare and rabbit caecum, particularly in regards to methanogenic Archaea.

  7. Modeling individual movement decisions of brown hare (Lepus europaeus) as a key concept for realistic spatial behavior and exposure: A population model for landscape-level risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmann, Joachim U; Wang, Magnus

    2017-09-01

    Spatial behavior is of crucial importance for the risk assessment of pesticides and for the assessment of effects of agricultural practice or multiple stressors, because it determines field use, exposition, and recovery. Recently, population models have increasingly been used to understand the mechanisms driving risk and recovery or to conduct landscape-level risk assessments. To include spatial behavior appropriately in population models for use in risk assessments, a new method, "probabilistic walk," was developed, which simulates the detailed daily movement of individuals by taking into account food resources, vegetation cover, and the presence of conspecifics. At each movement step, animals decide where to move next based on probabilities being determined from this information. The model was parameterized to simulate populations of brown hares (Lepus europaeus). A detailed validation of the model demonstrated that it can realistically reproduce various natural patterns of brown hare ecology and behavior. Simulated proportions of time animals spent in fields (PT values) were also comparable to field observations. It is shown that these important parameters for the risk assessment may, however, vary in different landscapes. The results demonstrate the value of using population models to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment and to better understand which factors determine risk in a landscape context. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2299-2307. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  8. Modeling the Influence of Forest Structure on Microsite Habitat Use by Snowshoe Hares

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    Angela K. Fuller

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus is an important prey species for many Carnivora and has strong influences on community structure and function in northern forests. An understanding of within-stand (microsite forest structural characteristics that promote high use by hares is important to provide forest management guidelines. We measured forest structural characteristics at the microsite-scale in north-central Maine and used an information-theoretic modeling approach to infer which characteristics were most strongly associated with use by hares during winter. We measured overwinter hare pellet density to model relationships among microsite-scale vegetation structure and hare use. Overwinter pellet density was positively associated with live stem cover (3 × coniferous saplings + deciduous saplings and negatively associated with overstory canopy closure; the two variables explained 71% of the variation in microsite use by hares. The highest pellet densities were in grids with canopy closure 22,000 stems/ha. Silvicultural practices that create dense areas of conifer and deciduous saplings should receive high within-stand use by hares in winter. These conditions can be achieved by promoting the release of advanced regeneration and reducing overstory cover to encourage establishment of shade-intolerant species; clearcutting is one such silvicultural prescription to achieve these conditions.

  9. A modelling approach to evaluating the effectiveness of Ecological Focus Areas: the case of the European brown hare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langhammer, Maria; Grimm, Volker; Putz, Sandro

    2016-01-01

    and Man Simulation System (ALMaSS), an established simulation system that has been used to simulate a wide range of farmland species relevant to biodiversity. We analysed the benefits of seven greening scenarios for the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus), which has been in widespread decline throughout......With the current implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for 2014–2020, the European Commission wants to move towards “greener” farming practices in the European Union. Therefore, the EU funds both obligatory measures, such as Ecological Focus Areas (EFAs) through the Green Direct...... of each type was increased separately up to 5% of the area in three Danish landscapes, which are characterised by low hare densities. The effects on female and yearling abundance were observed over a period of 30 years. All greening scenarios had significant positive effects on hare populations...

  10. Identification of hare meat by a species-specific marker of mitochondrial origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Cristina G; Melo, Vitor S; Amaral, Joana S; Estevinho, Letícia; Oliveira, M Beatriz P P; Mafra, Isabel

    2012-03-01

    Meat species identification in food has gained increasing interest in recent years due to public health, economic and legal concerns. Following the consumer trend towards high quality products, game meat has earned much attention. The aim of the present work was to develop a DNA-based technique able to identify hare meat. Mitochondrial cytochrome b gene was used to design species-specific primers for hare detection. The new primers proved to be highly specific to Lepus species, allowing the detection of 0.01% of hare meat in pork meat by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A real-time PCR assay with the new intercalating EvaGreen dye was further proposed as a specific and fast tool for hare identification with increased sensitivity (1pg) compared to end-point PCR (10pg). It can be concluded that the proposed new primers can be used by both species-specific end-point PCR or real-time PCR to accurately authenticate hare meat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Detectability counts when assessing populations for biodiversity targets.

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    Silviu O Petrovan

    Full Text Available Efficient, practical and accurate estimates of population parameters are a necessary basis for effective conservation action to meet biodiversity targets. The brown hare is representative of many European farmland species: historically widespread and abundant but having undergone rapid declines as a result of agricultural intensification. As a priority species in the UK Biodiversity Action Plan, it has national targets for population increase that are part of wider national environmental indicators. Previous research has indicated that brown hare declines have been greatest in pastural landscapes and that gains might be made by focussing conservation effort there. We therefore used hares in pastural landscapes to examine how basic changes in survey methodology can affect the precision of population density estimates and related these to national targets for biodiversity conservation in the UK. Line transects for hares carried out at night resulted in higher numbers of detections, had better-fitting detection functions and provided more robust density estimates with lower effort than those during the day, due primarily to the increased probability of detection of hares at night and the nature of hare responses to the observer. Hare spring densities varied widely within a single region, with a pooled mean of 20.6 hares km(-2, significantly higher than the reported national average of hares in pastures of 3.3 hares km(-2. The high number of encounters allowed us to resolve hare densities at site, season and year scales. We demonstrate how survey conduct can impact on data quantity and quality with implications for setting and monitoring biodiversity targets. Our case study of the brown hare provides evidence that for wildlife species with low detectability, large scale volunteer-based monitoring programmes, either species specific or generalist, might be more successfully and efficiently carried out by a small number of trained personnel able to

  12. Polarisation of major histocompatibility complex II host genotype with pathogenesis of European Brown Hare syndrome virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Iacovakis

    Full Text Available A study was conducted in order to determine the occurrence of European Brown Hare Syndrome virus (EBHSV in Denmark and possible relation between disease pathogenesis and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC host genotype. Liver samples were examined from 170 brown hares (hunted, found sick or dead, collected between 2004 and 2009. Macroscopical and histopathological findings consistent with EBHS were detected in 24 (14.1% hares; 35 (20.6% had liver lesions not typical of the syndrome, 50 (29.4% had lesions in other tissues and 61 (35.9% had no lesions. Sixty five (38.2% of 170 samples were found to be EBHSV-positive (RT-PCR, VP60 gene. In order to investigate associations between viral pathogenesis and host genotype, variation within the exon 2 DQA gene of MHC was assessed. DQA exon 2 analysis revealed the occurrence of seven different alleles in Denmark. Consistent with other populations examined so far in Europe, observed heterozygosity of DQA (H o = 0.1180 was lower than expected (H e = 0.5835. The overall variation for both nucleotide and amino acid differences (2.9% and 14.9%, respectively were lower in Denmark than those assessed in other European countries (8.3% and 16.9%, respectively. Within the peptide binding region codons the number of nonsynonymous substitutions (dN was much higher than synonymous substitutions (dS, which would be expected for MHC alleles under balancing selection. Allele frequencies did not significantly differ between EBHSV-positive and -negative hares. However, allele Leeu-DQA*30 was detected in significantly higher (P = 0.000006 frequency among the positive hares found dead with severe histopathological lesions than among those found sick or apparently healthy. In contrast, the latter group was characterized by a higher frequency of the allele Leeu-DQA*14 as well as the proportion of heterozygous individuals (P = 0.000006 and P = 0.027. These data reveal a polarisation between EBHSV

  13. Home range dynamics of mountain hare (Lepus timidus in the Swiss Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Sophie Genini-Gamboni

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Little is known on the ecology and behaviour of alpine mountain hare (Lepus timidus. Between 1996 and 1997 we analysed by radiotracking the pattern of space use of 8 mountain hares from the Swiss Alps. We estimated home range size using both the kernel density estimator and the minimum convex polygon. We found smaller ranges (38 ha compared to those reported for the species in boreal or arctic habitats, but similar to ranges in Scotland. Hares did not use a centre of major activity (core area and showed high home range overlap, confirming their non-territorial behaviour. Smaller ranges were used during winter compared to the other seasons, whilst no difference in size was found between sexes. Riassunto Dinamica dell'uso dello spazio della lepre bianca (Lepus timidus nelle Alpi Svizzere Le informazioni relative all'ecologia e al comportamento della lepre alpina (Lepus timidus sono ad oggi scarse. In questo studio abbiamo analizzato l'utilizzo dello spazio di una popolazione di lepre bianca sulle Alpi Svizzere. Tra il 1996 e il 1997 sono stati marcati con redio collare 8 individui di lepre alpina. L'home range è stato calcolato utilizzando lo stimatore di densità kernel (KDE ed il metodo del minimo poligono convesso (MCP. L'ampiezza degli home range (38 ha è risultata inferiore a quella riportata per la specie in habitat boreali ed artici. ma simile a quella riscontrata in Scozia. All'interno dell home range non è stato rilevato alcun centro di maggiore attività (core area ed è stata evidenziata una notevole sovrapposizione tra gli stessi, confermando la non territorialità della specie. Le aree frequentate in inverno sono risultate più piccole rispetto alle altre stagioni e non sono state riscontrate differenze tra i sessi.

  14. On facilitation between herbivores : How Brent Geese profit from brown hares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Wal, R; van Wijnen, H; van Wieren, S.E.; Beucher, O; Bos, D

    Brown hares (Lepus europaeus) are shown to facilitate grazing by Brent Geese (Branta bernicla) in a temperate salt marsh in the Netherlands by retarding vegetation succession for >25 yr. Winter grazing by hares prevented the shrub Atriplex portulacoides from spreading in younger parts nf thp salt

  15. On facilitation between herbivores : how brent geese profit from brown hares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, van der R.; Wijnen, van H.; Wieren, van S.E.; Beucher, O.; Bos, D.

    2000-01-01

    Brown hares (Lepus europaeus) are shown to facilitate grazing by Brent Geese (Branta bernicla) in a temperate salt marsh in the Netherlands by retarding vegetation succession for >25 yr. Winter grazing by hares prevented the shrub Atriplex portulacoides from spreading in younger parts of the salt

  16. The European Hare (Lepus europaeus: A Picky Herbivore Searching for Plant Parts Rich in Fat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphanie C Schai-Braun

    Full Text Available European hares of both sexes rely on fat reserves, particularly during the reproduc-tive season. Therefore, hares should select dietary plants rich in fat and energy. However, hares also require essential polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA such as linoleic acid (LA and alpha-linolenic acid (ALA to reproduce and survive. Although hares are able to absorb PUFA selectively in their gastrointestinal tract, it is unknown whether this mechanism is sufficient to guarantee PUFA supply. Thus, diet selection may involve a trade-off between a preference for energy versus a preference for crucial nutrients, namely PUFA. We compared plant and nutrient availability and use by hares in an arable landscape in Austria over three years. We found that European hares selected their diet for high energy content (crude fat and crude protein, and avoided crude fibre. There was no evidence of a preference for plants rich in LA and ALA. We conclude that fat is the limiting resource for this herbivorous mammal, whereas levels of LA and ALA in forage are sufficiently high to meet daily requirements, especially since their uptake is enhanced by physiological mechanisms. Animals selected several plant taxa all year round, and preferences did not simply correlate with crude fat content. Hence, European hares might not only select for plant taxa rich in fat, but also for high-fat parts of preferred plant taxa. As hares preferred weeds/grasses and various crop types while avoiding cereals, we suggest that promoting heterogeneous habitats with high crop diversity and set-asides may help stop the decline of European hares throughout Europe.

  17. Unpreferred plants affect patch choice and spatial distribution of European brown hares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuijper, D. P. J.; Bakker, J. P.

    2008-11-01

    Many herbivore species prefer to forage on patches of intermediate biomass. Plant quality and forage efficiency are predicted to decrease with increasing plant standing crop which explains the lower preference of the herbivore. However, often is ignored that on the long-term, plant species composition is predicted to change with increasing plant standing crop. The amount of low-quality, unpreferred food plants increases with increasing plant standing crop. In the present study the effects of unpreferred plants on patch choice and distribution of European brown hare in a salt-marsh system were studied. In one experiment, unpreferred plants were removed from plots. In the second experiment, plots were planted with different densities of an unpreferred artificial plant. Removal of unpreferred plants increased hare-grazing pressure more than fivefold compared to unmanipulated plots. Planting of unpreferred plants reduced hare-grazing pressure, with a significant reduction of grazing already occurring at low unpreferred plant density. Spatial distribution of hares within this salt-marsh system was related to spatial arrangement of unpreferred plants. Hare-grazing intensity decreased strongly with increasing abundance of unpreferred plants despite a high abundance of principal food plants. The results of this study indicate that plant species replacement is an important factor determining patch choice and spatial distribution of hares next to changing plant quality. Increasing abundance of unpreferred plant species can strengthen the decreasing patch quality with increasing standing crop and can decrease grazing intensity when preferred food plants are still abundantly present.

  18. Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery. PMID:29563267

  19. Density and habitat requirements of sympatric hares and cottontails in northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Vidus Rosin

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract From 2005 to 2009, densities and habitat selection by the European hare (Lepus europaeus and Eastern cottontail (Sylvilagus floridanus were assessed during feeding activity in an intensively cultivated area in northern Italy. Hare average density (74 ind./km2 was comparable to the highest values reported for European farming areas. Preand post-breeding density fluctuated widely across the study years, probably as a consequence of changes in the carrying capacity of the study area. Cottontail population size progressively increased, as expected for a recently introduced species supported by high reproductive performances. Hares used both crops and spontaneous vegetation during their feeding activity. Conversely, cottontails avoided winter cereals and preferred to feed on alfalfa. Our results suggest that simplified agro-ecosystems cannot maintain high density hare populations even at a short time scale. Landscape heterogeneity could enhance the chances of coexistence between the two lagomorphs.
    Riassunto Densità ed esigenze ecologiche della lepre e del silvilago in condizioni di simpatria in Italia settentrionale Tra il 2005 e il 2009, la densità e l’uso del habitat durante l’attività di alimentazione da parte della Lepre europea (Lepus europaeus e del Silvilago (Sylvilagus floridanus sono stati indagati in un’area intensamente coltivata nell’Italia settentrionale. La densità media della lepre nell’area di studio (74 ind./km2 corrisponde ai valori maggiori riportati per le aree agricole europee. Le densità pre- e post riproduttive della lepre hanno mostrato sensibili fluttuazioni durante il periodo di studio, probabilmente dovute ai cambiamenti stagionali della capacità portante dell’area di studio. L’abbondanza del silvilago è aumentata durante gli ultimi tre anni di studio, come prevedibile per una

  20. Anatomical Arrangement of the Subclavian Artery Branches in the Rabbit and European Hare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maženský D.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to compare the anatomical arrangements of the branches arising from the subclavian arteries in the domesticated rabbit and hare. The study was carried out on ten adult rabbits and ten adult European hares using the corrosion cast technique. After the euthanasia, the vascular network was perfused with saline. The arterial system of the entire body was injected by Batson’s corrosion casting kit No. 17. After polymerization of the medium, the maceration was carried out in KOH solution. The arrangement of the origins of the branches of the bilateral subclavian arteries were more variable in the hare. The number of branches arising from the subclavian artery were more regular in the rabbit on the right side and in the hare on the left side. In the rabbit, we found in two cases, the origins of the branches of the left subclavian artery from the aortic arch. The anatomical found between the rabbit and the hare may possibly be associated with their different ways of life.

  1. Goede vangsten jonge haring en wijting: weinig kabeljauw: International Bottom Trawl Survey 2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heessen, H.J.L.

    2001-01-01

    Onderzoeksvaartuigen hebben de bestandsopname van jonge haring en rondvis uitgevoerd in de Noordzee, het Skagerrak en het Kattegat. Overzicht van de bestanden van kabeljauw, schelvis, wijting, haring, sprot en makreel 1977-2001

  2. Effect of age and gender on carcass traits and meat quality of farmed brown hares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trocino, A; Birolo, M; Dabbou, S; Gratta, F; Rigo, N; Xiccato, G

    2018-04-01

    A total of 48 sub-adult hares and adult reproducing farmed hares were used to characterize carcass and meat traits according to the age and gender of animals. With respect to carcass traits, when age increased, the carcass weight significantly increased (2022 to 3391 g; Pcarcass traits. In conclusion, farmed hares have favourable slaughter results (high dressing percentage), carcass traits (high hind legs and loins rates), and meat nutritional value (high-protein, low-fat meat). This fact would offer additional commercial opportunities, in addition to restocking, to hare farmers.

  3. Dorsal Branches of Abdominal Aorta in the Rabbit and the European Hare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flešárová S.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to describe the anatomical arrangement of the branches arising from the dorsal surface of the aorta abdominalis in the rabbit and the hare. The study was carried out on ten adult rabbits and ten adult European hares using the corrosion technique. After the euthanasia, the vascular network was perfused with saline. After polymerization of the casting medium, the maceration was carried out in a KOH solution. We found different variations in; the number of arteries, level of their origin and arrangement. The aa. lumbales of the same level arose by means of a common trunk or their origin was independent. The aa. lumbales VI or aa. lumbales VI et VII originated also from the a. sacralis mediana. By aa. lumbales we found an important interspecies difference in; number, diameter, ramification and density of dorsal branches, which are designated for the dorsal muscles of the body stem. All listed parameters of branches were higher in the hare. This anatomical arrangement of dorsal branches is adapted to the higher movement activity of the hare. According to our results, it can be concluded that the anatomical arrangement of the branches of the aorta abdominalis shows a higher number of variations in the domesticated rabbit in comparison with the hare.

  4. Environmental surveillance during an outbreak of tularaemia in hares, the Netherlands, 2015.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janse, Ingmar; Maas, Miriam; Rijks, Jolianne M; Koene, Miriam; van der Plaats, Rozemarijn Qj; Engelsma, Marc; van der Tas, Peter; Braks, Marieta; Stroo, Arjan; Notermans, Daan W; de Vries, Maaike C; Reubsaet, Frans; Fanoy, Ewout; Swaan, Corien; Kik, Marja Jl; IJzer, Jooske; Jaarsma, Ryanne I; van Wieren, Sip; de Roda-Husman, Ana Maria; van Passel, Mark; Roest, Hendrik-Jan; van der Giessen, Joke

    2017-01-01

    Tularaemia, a disease caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a re-emerging zoonosis in the Netherlands. After sporadic human and hare cases occurred in the period 2011 to 2014, a cluster of F. tularensis-infected hares was recognised in a region in the north of the Netherlands from

  5. The rise and fall of the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) during Pleistocene glaciations: expansion and retreat with hybridization in the Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo-Ferreira, J; Boursot, P; Randi, E; Kryukov, A; Suchentrunk, F; Ferrand, N; Alves, P C

    2007-02-01

    The climatic fluctuations during glaciations have affected differently arctic and temperate species. In the northern hemisphere, cooling periods induced the expansion of many arctic species to the south, while temperate species were forced to retract in southern refugia. Consequently, in some areas the alternation of these species set the conditions for competition and eventually hybridization. Hares in the Iberian Peninsula appear to illustrate this phenomenon. Populations of Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis), brown hare (Lepus europaeus) and broom hare (Lepus castroviejoi) in Northern Iberia harbour mitochondrial haplotypes from the mountain hare (Lepus timidus), a mainly boreal and arctic species presently absent from the peninsula. To understand the history of this past introgression we analysed sequence variation and geographical distribution of mitochondrial control region and cytochrome b haplotypes of L. timidus origin found in 378 specimens of these four species. Among 124 L. timidus from the Northern Palaearctic and the Alps we found substantial nucleotide diversity (2.3%) but little differentiation between populations. Based on the mismatch distribution of the L. timidus sequences, this could result from an expansion at a time of temperature decrease favourable to this arctic species. The nucleotide diversity of L. timidus mtDNA found in Iberian L. granatensis, L. europaeus and L. castroviejoi (183, 70 and 1 specimens, respectively) was of the same order as that in L. timidus over its range (1.9%), suggesting repeated introgression of multiple lineages. The structure of the coalescent of L. granatensis sequences indicates that hybridization with L. timidus was followed by expansion of the introgressed haplotypes, as expected during a replacement with competition, and occurred when temperatures started to rise, favouring the temperate species. Whether a similar scenario explains the introgression into Iberian L. europaeus remains unclear but it is possible

  6. Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L. Scott; Lukacs, Paul M.; Mitchell, Michael S.

    2014-01-01

    As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.

  7. Anatomical Comparison of the Renal Arteries in the Rabbit and European Hare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flešárová S.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to compare the level of origin of the renal arteries in the rabbit and hare. The study was carried out on ten adult rabbits and ten adult European hares using the corrosion cast technique. After the euthanasia, the vascular network was perfused with saline. Batson’s corrosion casting kit No. 17 was used as a casting medium. After polymerization of the medium, the maceration was carried out in KOH solution. We found variable levels of the origin of renal arteries in the rabbit, in the hare and between both species. In the rabbit, the right renal artery originated at the level of the second lumbar vertebra in 70 % of the cases and at the level of the first lumbar vertebra in 30 % of the cases, and the left-sided renal artery originated in 60 % of the cases at the level of the second lumbar vertebra and at the level of the third lumbar vertebra in 40 % of the cases. In the hare, the bilateral renal arteries originated at the level of the second lumbar vertebra. According to the results, it can be concluded that the origin level of the renal arteries from the abdominal aorta is more variable in the domesticated rabbit in comparison with the hare.

  8. Parasites of domestic and wild animals in South Africa. XXXII. Ixodid ticks on scrub hares in the Transvaal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horak, I G; Spickett, A M; Braack, L E; Penzhorn, B L

    1993-09-01

    A total of 264 scrub hares (Lepus saxatilis) were examined for ixodid ticks at various localities in the Kruger National Park, eastern Transvaal Lowveld. Thirteen tick species were recovered from these hares. The seasonal abundances of the immature stages of Amblyomma hebraeum, Amblyomma marmoreum, Hyalomma truncatum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi, Rhipicephalus simus and Rhipicephalus zambeziensis and all stages of a Rhipicephalus sp. (near R. pravus) were determined. Three scrub hares, examined in the north-western Transvaal Bushveld, were infested with five ixodid tick species. Ten hares examined in the eastern Transvaal Highveld harboured three species. A total of 15 ixodid tick species were recovered from the scrub hares examined in the three regions of the Transvaal. No haematozoa were found in blood smears made from the hares examined in the southern region of the Kruger National Park.

  9. Piezoelectric Biosensor for a Simple Serological Diagnosis of Tularemia in Infected European Brown Hares (Lepus europaeus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Pikula

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Piezoelectric biosensor was used for diagnosis of infection by Francisellatularensis subsp. holarctica in European brown hares. Two kinds of experiments wereperformed in this study. First, sera from experimentally infected European brown hares(Lepus europaeus were assayed by piezoelectric biosensor and the seventh day postinfection was found as the first one when statistically significant diagnosis of tularemia waspossible; all other sera collected from hares later than on day 7 following the infection werefound tularemia positive. Typing to classify the field strain of F. tularensis used for theexperimental infection was confirmed by proteome study. Second, sera from 35 Europeanbrown hare specimens sampled at hunting grounds and tested as tularemia positive by slowagglutination allowed diagnosis of tularemia by the piezoelectric biosensor. All these sera ofnaturally infected hares were found as tularemia positive, too. Efficacy of the piezoelectricbiosensor for the serological diagnosis of tularemia is discussed.

  10. Tick infestation on sheep, goat, horse and wild hare in Tamil Nadu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soundararajan, C; Nagarajan, K; Muthukrishnan, S; Arul Prakash, M

    2018-03-01

    The prevalence of tick infestation and their predilection sites on sheep, goat, horse and wild hare were studied at various places of Tamil Nadu, India. The prevalence of tick infestation in Madras red sheep, Tellicherry goat and horse was 77.11, 78.21 and 13.33%, respectively. Sheep were heavily infested with Haemaphysalis bispinosa followed by Hyalomma isaaci , Rhipicephalus haemaphysaloides and H . anatolicum . The ticks from goats were identified as H . bispinosa , R . haemaphysaloides , H . isaaci and R . sanguineus . Horses were infested with Otobus megnini and R . sanguineus . The ticks on wild hare ( Lepus nigricollis ) were identified as R . haemaphysaloides and H . bispinosa . Wild hare acts as a source of infestation to the sheep and goats since these animals shared the same field.

  11. Relationship between habitat, densities and metabolic profile in brown hares (Lepus europaeus Pallas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Bagliacca

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Some habitat traits and haematic parameters were studied to understand the relationships between the hare densities, habitat characteristics and physiological and nutritional condition of the animals. A total of 33 protected areas, reserved for wild game reproduction, located in the Province of Florence (Central Italy, were monitored during a 2-year period. In each protected area the hares were submitted to census. The habitat features of the protected areas were studied and the following parameters were categorised: altitude; cleared-land/total-land ratio; main exposure; main ground composition; water availability; main slope; anthropogenic presence; predator presence; wooded borders; presence of trees and shrubs; surveillance against hunting; demographic predator control; kind of cultivation; unharvested crops for game. After the census the hares were captured for translocation outside in “free” hunting areas. During capture the hares were put in darkened, wooden capture-boxes and remained inside for a variable period of time (10min to 3h. A sample of 3 to 7 hares, captured per year and per each protected area, were removed from the boxes (physically restrained, with covered eyes for blood sample collection, sex, age and live weight determination. The following analyses were performed on frozen plasma samples: ALanine aminoTransferase (ALT, ASpartate aminoTransferase (AST, glucose, cholesterol, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN, Ca, P, Mg, Na, K, and Cl concentrations. The relationship between hare density and habitat characteristics was analysed by single regressions analysis. Then the habitat characteristics were subjected to multivariate analysis in relationship to hare body condition. The haematic parameters were analysed by least square means considering habitat traits, animal density, age and sex, as main categorical factors, interaction sex*age, and “pregnant and non-reproducing” nested within sex. Results showed that the highest density

  12. Polarisation of Major Histocompatibility Complex II Host Genotype with Pathogenesis of European Brown Hare Syndrome Virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iacovakis, Christos; Mamuris, Zissis; Moutou, Katerina A

    2013-01-01

    A study was conducted in order to determine the occurrence of European Brown Hare Syndrome virus (EBHSV) in Denmark and possible relation between disease pathogenesis and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) host genotype. Liver samples were examined from 170 brown hares (hunted, found sick...... were found to be EBHSV-positive (RT-PCR, VP60 gene). In order to investigate associations between viral pathogenesis and host genotype, variation within the exon 2 DQA gene of MHC was assessed. DQA exon 2 analysis revealed the occurrence of seven different alleles in Denmark. Consistent with other...... populations examined so far in Europe, observed heterozygosity of DQA (H o = 0.1180) was lower than expected (H e = 0.5835). The overall variation for both nucleotide and amino acid differences (2.9% and 14.9%, respectively) were lower in Denmark than those assessed in other European countries (8.3% and 16...

  13. Origin Level of the Ventral Branches of the Abdominal Aorta in the Rabbit and European Hare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maženský D.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to describe the level of origin of the branches originating from the ventral surface of the abdominal aorta in the rabbit and hare. The study was carried out on ten adult rabbits and ten adult European hares using the corrosion cast technique. After euthanasia, the vascular network was perfused with saline. Batson’s corrosion casting kit No. 17 was used as a casting medium. After polymerization of the medium, the maceration was carried out in a KOH solution. We found variable levels of the origin of the celiac, cranial mesenteric and caudal mesenteric arteries in both species. In the rabbit, the celiac artery originated in the majority of cases at the cranial end of the first lumbar vertebra and in the hare at the middle part of the vertebral body of the same vertebra. The cranial mesenteric artery in the rabbit originated predominantly at the level of the first lumbar vertebra and in the hare at the level of the second lumbar vertebra. In the rabbit, the caudal mesenteric artery originated mainly at the level of the sixth lumbar vertebra and in the hare, at the level of the fifth lumbar vertebra. We concluded that there were higher variabilities of the origins of the ventral branches of the abdominal aorta in domesticated rabbit in comparison with the European hare.

  14. Spillover Events of Infection of Brown Hares (Lepus europaeus) with Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Type 2 Virus (RHDV2) Caused Sporadic Cases of an European Brown Hare Syndrome‐Like Disease in Italy and Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Velarde, R.; Cavadini, P.; Neimanis, A.; Cabezón, O.; Chiari, M.; Gaffuri, A.; Lavín, S.; Grilli, G.; Gavier‐Widén, D.; Lavazza, A.; Capucci, L.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a lagovirus that can cause fatal hepatitis (rabbit haemorrhagic disease, RHD) with mortality of 80–90% in farmed and wild rabbits. Since 1986, RHDV has caused outbreaks in rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Europe, but never in European brown hares (Lepus europaeus, EBH). In 2010, a new RHDV‐related virus, called RHDV2, emerged in Europe, causing extended epidemics because it largely overcame the immunity to RHDV present in most rabbit popul...

  15. Preliminary reference values for electrocardiography, echocardiography and myocardial morphometry in the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slawuta Piotr

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The study aimed at defining reference values for electrocardiographic (ECG and echocardiographic parameters as well as macroscopic dimensions of the heart and microscopic dimensions of cardiomyocytes in the European brown hare. The studies were conducted on 30 adult, clinically healthy hares of either sex caught in Poland. ECG and echocardiography were performed supravitally on anaesthetized hares. After euthanasia, gross and microscopic myocardial and cardiomyocyte dimensions were determined. Heart rate amounted to 140 ± 37.5 beats/min, the leading rhythm involved the sinus rhythm. P wave time was 26 ± 5 ms, PQ time was 80 ms, QRS time was 29 ± 3.5 ms, and ST was 97.5 ± 7 ms. Echocardiography determined a left ventricular wall end-diastolic diameter of 8.6 ± 2.0 mm and an intraventricular septum end-diastolic diameter of 5.75 ± 1.0 mm. The thickness of the interventricular septum corresponded to that of the free wall of the left ventricle, a finding consistent with physiological hypertrophy. Preliminary reference values were established for echocardiography. The findings were similar to those obtained at necropsy. The ECG and echocardiographic studies represent the first supravital examination of cardiac function in the hare. The obtained results illustrate adaptation of hare's myocardium to its mode of life. The cardiac findings resemble the athlete's heart syndrome described in humans. The findings may prove useful in further studies on the physiology of the cardio-vascular system in the hare.

  16. On Lepus salae, a new African Hare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jentink, F.A.

    1880-01-01

    Hitherto only a small number of well defined species of Hares are known from Africa, viz: one or two species from Algiers and Tunis; eleven have been described as inhabiting the N. E. parts of Africa as far as Somáliland, while Waterhouse ¹) has pointed out that in South Africa there exist three

  17. Environmental surveillance during an outbreak of tularaemia in hares, the Netherlands, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janse, Ingmar; Maas, Miriam; Rijks, Jolianne M; Koene, Miriam; van der Plaats, Rozemarijn Qj; Engelsma, Marc; van der Tas, Peter; Braks, Marieta; Stroo, Arjan; Notermans, Daan W; de Vries, Maaike C; Reubsaet, Frans; Fanoy, Ewout; Swaan, Corien; Kik, Marja Jl; IJzer, Jooske; Jaarsma, Ryanne I; van Wieren, Sip; de Roda-Husman, Ana Maria; van Passel, Mark; Roest, Hendrik-Jan; van der Giessen, Joke

    2017-08-31

    Tularaemia, a disease caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a re-emerging zoonosis in the Netherlands. After sporadic human and hare cases occurred in the period 2011 to 2014, a cluster of F. tularensis-infected hares was recognised in a region in the north of the Netherlands from February to May 2015. No human cases were identified, including after active case finding. Presence of F. tularensis was investigated in potential reservoirs and transmission routes, including common voles, arthropod vectors and surface waters. F. tularensis was not detected in common voles, mosquito larvae or adults, tabanids or ticks. However, the bacterium was detected in water and sediment samples collected in a limited geographical area where infected hares had also been found. These results demonstrate that water monitoring could provide valuable information regarding F. tularensis spread and persistence, and should be used in addition to disease surveillance in wildlife. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

  18. Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA reveals reticulate evolution in hares (Lepus spp., Lagomorpha, Mammalia from Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zelalem Tolesa

    Full Text Available For hares (Lepus spp., Leporidae, Lagomorpha, Mammalia from Ethiopia no conclusive molecular phylogenetic data are available. To provide a first molecular phylogenetic model for the Abyssinian Hare (Lepus habessinicus, the Ethiopian Hare (L. fagani, and the Ethiopian Highland Hare (L. starcki and their evolutionary relationships to hares from Africa, Eurasia, and North America, we phylogenetically analysed mitochondrial ATPase subunit 6 (ATP6; n = 153 / 416bp and nuclear transferrin (TF; n = 155 / 434bp sequences of phenotypically determined individuals. For the hares from Ethiopia, genotype composition at twelve microsatellite loci (n = 107 was used to explore both interspecific gene pool separation and levels of current hybridization, as has been observed in some other Lepus species. For phylogenetic analyses ATP6 and TF sequences of Lepus species from South and North Africa (L. capensis, L. saxatilis, the Anatolian peninsula and Europe (L. europaeus, L. timidus were also produced and additional TF sequences of 18 Lepus species retrieved from GenBank were included as well. Median joining networks, neighbour joining, maximum likelihood analyses, as well as Bayesian inference resulted in similar models of evolution of the three species from Ethiopia for the ATP6 and TF sequences, respectively. The Ethiopian species are, however, not monophyletic, with signatures of contemporary uni- and bidirectional mitochondrial introgression and/ or shared ancestral polymorphism. Lepus habessinicus carries mtDNA distinct from South African L. capensis and North African L. capensis sensu lato; that finding is not in line with earlier suggestions of its conspecificity with L. capensis. Lepus starcki has mtDNA distinct from L. capensis and L. europaeus, which is not in line with earlier suggestions to include it either in L. capensis or L. europaeus. Lepus fagani shares mitochondrial haplotypes with the other two species from Ethiopia, despite its distinct

  19. First evidence of Leishmania infection in European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) in Greece: GIS analysis and phylogenetic position within the Leishmania spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsokana, C N; Sokos, C; Giannakopoulos, A; Mamuris, Z; Birtsas, P; Papaspyropoulos, K; Valiakos, G; Spyrou, V; Lefkaditis, M; Chatzopoulos, D C; Kantere, M; Manolakou, K; Touloudi, A; Burriel, A Rodi; Ferroglio, E; Hadjichristodoulou, C; Billinis, C

    2016-01-01

    Although the existence of a sylvatic transmission cycle of Leishmania spp., independent from the domestic cycle, has been proposed, data are scarce on Leishmania infection in wild mammals in Greece. In this study, we aimed to investigate the presence of Leishmania infection in the European brown hare in Greece, to infer the phylogenetic position of the Leishmania parasites detected in hares in Greece, and to identify any possible correlation between Leishmania infection in hares with environmental parameters, using the geographical information system (GIS). Spleen samples from 166 hares were tested by internal transcribed spacer-1 (ITS-1)-nested PCR for the detection of Leishmania DNA. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on Leishmania sequences from hares in Greece in conjunction with Leishmania sequences from dogs in Greece and 46 Leishmania sequences retrieved from GenBank. The Leishmania DNA prevalence in hares was found to be 23.49 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 17.27-30.69). The phylogenetic analysis confirmed that the Leishmania sequences from hares in Greece belong in the Leishmania donovani complex. The widespread Leishmania infection in hares should be taken into consideration because under specific circumstances, this species can act as a reservoir host. This study suggests that the role of wild animals, including hares, in the epidemiology of Leishmania spp. in Greece deserves further elucidation.

  20. Robert Hare's Theory of Galvanism: A Study of Heat and Electricity in Early Nineteenth-Century American Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Amy

    2018-04-09

    As a professor of chemistry at the University of Pennsylvania, Robert Hare actively shaped early American science. He participated in a large network of scholars, including Joseph Henry, François Arago, and Jacob Berzelius, and experimented with and wrote extensively about electricity and its associated chemical and thermal phenomena. In the early nineteenth century, prominent chemists such as Berzelius and Humphry Davy proclaimed that a revolution had occurred in chemistry through electrical research. Examining Robert Hare's contributions to this discourse, this paper analyzes how Hare's study of electricity and the caloric theory of heat led him to propose a new theory of galvanism. It also examines the reception of Hare's work in America and Great Britain, highlighting the contributions of early American chemists to the development of electrochemistry.

  1. Interactions between hare and brent goose in a salt marsh system : evidence for food competition?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Wal, R; Kunst, P; Drent, R

    1998-01-01

    In this study we accumulate evidence that brown hare competes with brent goose for food resources in a temperate salt marsh. We show that both species overlap in habitat use and share food plants. The two herbivores mainly used the common habitat at different times of the day, with hares active in

  2. Arsenic deposition in tissues of the European hare (Lepus europaeus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Bukovjan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The work deals with arsenic deposition in individual biological matrices of the European hare (Lepus europaeus Pall.. The aim of this work was to evaluate the arsenic deposition in biological matrices of adult hares distributed by sex, and to highlight the need for monitoring this element in the natural environment. Determination of arsenic concentration was carried out on 11 biomarkers in 105 adult hares from variously loaded areas of the Czech Republic. Individual matrices include the liver, kidneys, brain, adipose tissue, reproductive organs, bone, fur, faeces, lungs, skeletal muscle and the heart. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry was employed as a method to detect arsenic concentrations in the tissues. Arsenic deposition in the monitored biological matrices of adult animals showed no significant differences between sexes. The ratio of arsenic concentration in the skeletal muscle as compared with concentration in other tissues was 1:2.96 in the liver, followed by 1:4.35 in kidneys, 1:1.07 in the heart, 1:2.73 in lungs, 1:3.12 in ovaries, 1:3.30 in testicles, 1:5.90 in bones, 1:114.68 in fur, and 1:60.05 in faeces. Deposition of this element in matrices has a similar character and only differs in concentrations.

  3. Estimating Cape hare occupancy and abundance in southern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study outlines the importance of integrating spotlighting data and occupancy modelling to estimate the spatial occupancy, abundance and habitat preferences of Cape hares Lepus capensis in southern Tunisia. Exploring the spatial distribution pattern of this species is problematic because of its nocturnal and secretive ...

  4. Factors affecting Brown Hare (Lepus europaeus hunting bags in Tuscany region (central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Santilli

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We carried out an exploratory analysis of hare Lepus europaeus hunting bags (number of brown hares shot in the nineteen Hunting Districts of Tuscany (central Italy from 2001 to 2004, in order to identify which variables (land use and characteristics, climate and management could affect hare harvest. Vineyards and grass in rotation with winter cereals were positively associated with the number of hares shot, whereas industrial crops (mainly sunflowers seemed to have a negative effect,as did the density of grazing sheep. Mean annual rainfall was negatively related to the harvest but with a borderline significance. We found a positive relationship between the number of hares harvested and the percentage of protected areas managed to conserve and produce small game species, whereas private hunting estates showed a negative association. Restocking both with wild hares captured in protected areas and with farm-reared animals did not show any effect on hunting bags of hares. Riassunto Fattori influenzanti il carniere di lepri (Lepus europaeus in Toscana (Italia centrale E’ stata condotta una ricerca preliminare sui carnieri di lepre (dal 2001 al 2004 dei diciannove Ambiti Territoriali di Caccia della Toscana, al fine di identificare quali variabili (di tipo ambientale, climatico e gestionale possano influire sulla resa venatoria di questa specie. Il numero di lepri abbattute dai cacciatori è risultato influenzato positivamente dalla percentuale di vigneti e di foraggiere in avvicendamento, mentre le colture industriali (principalmente rappresentate dal girasole e la densità del bestiame ovicaprino hanno evidenziato un effetto negativo. Anche le precipitazioni medie annuali sono risultate associate negativamente al numero di lepri abbattute, tuttavia in questo caso la variabile non ha raggiunto il livello di significatività statistica. L’abbondanza del carniere di

  5. The new French 2010 Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus causes an RHD-like disease in the Sardinian Cape hare (Lepus capensis mediterraneus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puggioni, Giantonella; Cavadini, Patrizia; Maestrale, Caterina; Scivoli, Rosario; Botti, Giuliana; Ligios, Ciriaco; Le Gall-Reculé, Ghislaine; Lavazza, Antonio; Capucci, Lorenzo

    2013-10-07

    Lagovirus is an emerging genus of Caliciviridae, which includes the Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV) of rabbits and the European brown hare syndrome virus (EBHSV) of hares that cause lethal hepatitis. In 2010, a new RHDV related virus (RHDV2) with a unique genetic and antigenic profile and lower virulence was identified in France in rabbits. Here we report the identification of RHDV2 as the cause in Sardinia of several outbreaks of acute hepatitis in rabbits and Cape hare (Lepus capensis mediterraneus). This is the first account of a lagovirus that causes fatal hepatitis in both rabbits and hares.

  6. Heavy metal accumulation in arctic hares (Lepus arcticus) in Nunavut, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedersen, Simen [Department of Biology, University of Tromso, N-9037 Tromso (Norway)]. E-mail: simenpeders1@gmail.com; Lierhagen, Syverin [Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Tungasletta 2, N-7485 Trondheim (Norway)

    2006-09-15

    Accumulation of cadmium, mercury, lead, copper and zinc was studied in muscle, liver and kidney of 9 adult and 7 juvenile arctic hares (Lepus arcticus), collected in 2003 in the southwestern part of Nunavut, Canada. Our objective was to determine the level of heavy metal accumulation, and distribution among age groups and tissue. Concentrations of all metals varied among tissues, and concentrations of Cd, Hg and Zn were higher in adults compared to juveniles. We found correlations in metal content among tissues, and among metals in kidneys. We also found the hares to have low concentration of most heavy metals except cadmium. We suggest that the high cadmium levels might be caused by the local geology, and the hares being adapted to these levels. The low levels of the other metals are probably due to low input of atmospheric contaminants. Only one of the individuals had Cd content slightly above the maximum contaminant levels recommended for human consumption of meat. There were no levels in meat above the recommended maximum for the rest of the metals surveyed. However the Cd levels in liver and kidney are orders of magnitude higher than the recommended maximum, and consumption of these organs should be avoided.

  7. Swimming performance and unique wake topology of the sea hare (Aplysia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Zhuoyu; Mittal, Rajat

    2018-03-01

    The Aplysia, commonly referred to as the "sea hare," is a marine mollusc that swims using large-amplitude flapping of its wide, winglike parapodia. In this study, flow simulations with a relatively simple kinematical model are used to gain insights into the vortex dynamics, thrust generation, and energetics of locomotion for this animal. A unique vortex pattern characterized by three distinct trains of vortex ringlike structures is observed in the wake of this animal. These vortex rings are associated with a positive momentum flux in the wake that counteracts the drag generated by the body. Simulations indicate propulsive efficiencies of up to 24% and terminal swimming speeds of about 0.9 body length per cycle. Swimming speeds are found to increase with increasing parapodial flapping amplitude as well as wavelength of undulation.

  8. Ultrasonographic Evaluation of the Urinary System in New Zealand White Rabbit and Tolai Hare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolvahed Moarabi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Ultrasonographic examination of urinary system (kidney and urinary bladder was conducted in New Zealand white rabbit [NZwr] and Tolai hare (Lepus tolai. Ultrasound images of the kidney and urinary bladder were evaluated on fifteen healthy rabbits of New Zealand white rabbit and another fifteen Tolai hares. The healthy rabbits were 8-12 months old (mean = 9.3 months, of both sexes and weighed between 1.1-1.7 kg (mean = 1.250 kg. All examinations were performed while the rabbits were in dorsal recumbancy. The kidneys were examined from fossa by the use of an 8 MHz linear real-time scanner. This study revealed the following measurements normal rabbit kidneys: 27.80-35.70 mm and 16.90-22.40 mm in length and width in New Zealand white rabbit, respectively. The length and width were 26.67-34.50 and 15.82-20.60 mm, in Tolai hare, respectively. Bladder wall thickness varies from 1.70-2.50 mm (in New Zealand white rabbit to 1.80-2.60 mm (in Tolai hare. Statistical analysis showed that the gender did not have effect on length, width and weight (P > 0.05, but the type of the animal, had significant effect on the cortex and surface (P < 0.05. In the present study, the renal cortex was uniform in echogenicity, hyperechoic to the renal medulla, hypoechoic to the spleen, and isoechoic to the hepatic parenchyma.

  9. Biochemical responses and oxidative stress in Francisella tularensis infection: a European brown hare model

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    Treml Frantisek

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of the present study was to investigate biochemical and oxidative stress responses to experimental F. tularensis infection in European brown hares, an important source of human tularemia infections. Methods For these purposes we compared the development of an array of biochemical parameters measured in blood plasma using standard procedures of dry chemistry as well as electrochemical devices following a subcutaneous infection with a wild Francisella tularensis subsp. holarctica strain (a single dose of 2.6 × 109 CFU pro toto. Results Subcutaneous inoculation of a single dose with 2.6 × 109 colony forming units of a wild F. tularensis strain pro toto resulted in the death of two out of five hares. Plasma chemistry profiles were examined on days 2 to 35 post-infection. When compared to controls, the total protein, urea, lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase were increased, while albumin, glucose and amylase were decreased. Both uric and ascorbic acids and glutathione dropped on day 2 and then increased significantly on days 6 to 12 and 6 to 14 post-inoculation, respectively. There was a two-fold increase in lipid peroxidation on days 4 to 8 post-inoculation. Conclusions Contrary to all expectations, the present study demonstrates that the European brown hare shows relatively low susceptibility to tularemia. Therefore, the circumstances of tularemia in hares under natural conditions should be further studied.

  10. The hair of the common hare (Lepus europaeus Pall.) and of the common vole (Microtus arvalis Pall.) as indicator of the environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paukert, J.

    1986-01-01

    Hairs of common hare (Lepus europaeus Pall.) and of common vole (Microtus arvalis Pall.) living in immission zones were investigated by INAA. Both the hare and the vole are almost exclusively herbivores; they consume relatively large amounts of contaminated food and reflect reliably the contamination degree of the respective ecosystem. The use of free-living animals for assessing environmental quality may complete effectively the information obtained by the examination of population. Though free-living animals lead a rather different way of existence it has been found that analyses of their hairs correlate very well with analyses of human hair. It may be expected that the changes in concentrations of heavy metals will manifest themselves earlier in animals than in men because the animals are strictly tied to local food sources. The hair samples of hares contained increased concentrations of Sm, La, Au, As, Se, Cr, Sc, Fe, Ce, Th and Co. The hairs of voles showed increased concentrations of Sm, La, Zn, As, Se, Cr, Sc, Fe, Sb, Ce, Cs and Co. A marked trend towards cumulation in hair was observed for the following elements: As, Se, Sc and Fe. The increase of their concentrations in the hairs of animals from the immission regions amounted to as much as 10 3 %. (author)

  11. Survey on the role of brown hares (Lepus europaeus, Pallas 1778 as carriers of zoonotic dermatophytes

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    Francesca Mancianti

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of dermatophytes and keratinophilic fungi was investigated by hair-brush technique on the coat of 986 apparently healthy brown hares (Lepus europaeus, Pallas 1778 caught in 9 restocking and capture zones in Central Italy. Overall, 7.5% hair samples gave positive results. Trichophyton terrestre (2.1%, Chrysosporium sp, Chrysosporium keratinophilum, Microsporum gypseum, Trichophyton gloriae and Trichophyton mentagrophytes (0.6% each, Trichophyton erinacei and Scopulariopsis brevicaulis (0.4% each, Chrysosporium asperatum (0.3%, Arthroderma sp and Microsporum canis (0.1% each were identified in cultures with single isolates, whereas Chrysosporium sp/T. mentagrophytes (0.3%, Chrysosporium sp/T. terrestre and M. gypseum/T. terrestre (0.2% each, Chrysosporium tropicum/T. terrestre, M. canis/T. terrestre and T. ajelloi/T. terrestre (0.1% each were identified in cultures with mixed isolates. T. erinacei and M. canis have not previously been isolated from hares. M. canis, T. erinacei and T. mentagrophytes were the most clinically important dermatophytes found. Altogether, they were isolated only from 1.5% hair samples. Thus, it is concluded that brown hares may play a limited epidemiological role as carriers of zoonotic dermatophytes. Nevertheless, this should be taken into consideration as many people may be exposed to zoonotic agents from brown hares during hunting and trapping activities.

  12. Never look a gift horse in the mouth or should you? Upgrading the Hare irrigation system in Southern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wegerich, K.; Dubale, T.; Bruins, B.

    2008-01-01

    The upgrading of the Hare Irrigation System was a joint undertaking of the governments of Ethiopia and the People's Republic of China. After completion of the primary and the secondary canals, farmers refused to take over responsibility of the system. Existing literature on the Hare Irrigation

  13. The new French 2010 Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus causes an RHD-like disease in the Sardinian Cape hare (Lepus capensis mediterraneus)

    OpenAIRE

    Puggioni, Giantonella; Cavadini, Patrizia; Maestrale, Caterina; Scivoli, Rosario; Botti, Giuliana; Ligios, Ciriaco; Le Gall-Recul?, Ghislaine; Lavazza, Antonio; Capucci, Lorenzo

    2013-01-01

    Lagovirus is an emerging genus of Caliciviridae, which includes the Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV) of rabbits and the European brown hare syndrome virus (EBHSV) of hares that cause lethal hepatitis. In 2010, a new RHDV related virus (RHDV2) with a unique genetic and antigenic profile and lower virulence was identified in France in rabbits. Here we report the identification of RHDV2 as the cause in Sardinia of several outbreaks of acute hepatitis in rabbits and Cape hare (Lepus capens...

  14. Mycosporine-like amino acids are multifunctional molecules in sea hares and their marine community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, Cynthia E.; Kamio, Michiya; Nguyen, Linh; Germann, Markus W.; Derby, Charles D.

    2011-01-01

    Molecules of keystone significance are relatively rare, yet mediate a variety of interactions between organisms. They influence the distribution and abundance of species, the transfer of energy across multiple trophic levels, and thus they play significant roles in structuring ecosystems. Despite their potential importance in facilitating our understanding of ecological systems, only three molecules thus far have been proposed as molecules of keystone significance: saxitoxin and dimethyl sulfide in marine communities and tetrodotoxin in riparian communities. In the course of studying the neuroecology of chemical defenses, we identified three mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs)—N-ethanol palythine (= asterina-330), N-isopropanol palythine (= aplysiapalythine A), and N-ethyl palythine (= aplysiapalythine B)—as intraspecific alarm cues for sea hares (Aplysia californica). These alarm cues are released in the ink secretion of sea hares and cause avoidance behaviors in neighboring conspecifics. Further, we show that these three bioactive MAAs, two [aplysiapalythine A (APA) and -B (APB)] being previously unknown molecules, are present in the algal diet of sea hares and are concentrated in their defensive secretion as well as in their skin. MAAs are known to be produced by algae, fungi, and cyanobacteria and are acquired by many aquatic animals through trophic interactions. MAAs are widely used as sunscreens, among other uses, but sea hares modify their function to serve a previously undocumented role, as intraspecific chemical cues. Our findings highlight the multifunctionality of MAAs and their role in ecological connectivity, suggesting that they may function as molecules of keystone significance in marine ecosystems. PMID:21709250

  15. The transcriptional landscape of seasonal coat colour moult in the snowshoe hare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Mafalda S; Alves, Paulo C; Callahan, Colin M; Marques, João P; Mills, L Scott; Good, Jeffrey M; Melo-Ferreira, José

    2017-08-01

    Seasonal coat colour change is an important adaptation to seasonally changing environments but the evolution of this and other circannual traits remains poorly understood. In this study, we use gene expression to understand seasonal coat colour moulting in wild snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus). We used hair colour to follow the progression of the moult, simultaneously sampling skin from three moulting stages in hares collected during the peak of the spring moult from white winter to brown summer pelage. Using RNA sequencing, we tested whether patterns of expression were consistent with predictions based on the established phases of the hair growth cycle. We found functionally consistent clustering across skin types, with 766 genes differentially expressed between moult stages. "White" pelage showed more differentially expressed genes that were upregulated relative to other skin types, involved in the transition between late telogen (quiescent stage) and the onset of anagen (proliferative stage). Skin samples from transitional "intermediate" and "brown" pelage were transcriptionally similar and resembled the regressive transition to catagen (regressive stage). We also detected differential expression of several key circadian clock and pigmentation genes, providing important means to dissect the bases of alternate seasonal colour morphs. Our results reveal that pelage colour is a useful biomarker for seasonal change but that there is a consistent lag between the main gene expression waves and change in visible coat colour. These experiments establish that developmental sampling from natural populations of nonmodel organisms can provide a crucial resource to dissect the genetic basis and evolution of complex seasonally changing traits. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Postnatal growth of Brown hare (Lepus europaeus in a South Italy rearing centre

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierangelo Freschi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to describe the postnatal growth performance (period from birth to weaning in Brown hare (Lepus europaeus leverets in a rearing centre of Southern Italy. Three morpho- metric variables (body weight, hind foot length and ear length were measured weekly from birth to wean- ing (at 21 days in 78 leverets. Data were analysed by proc GLM (SAS considering the effect of sex and birth period (1. January-February, 2. March-April, and 3. May-June. Birth period influenced significantly live weight at 14 14th day of life, lower inperiod2thanin3(553vs.607g;P period 2 than in 3(553vs.607g;P (553 vs. 607 g; P≤0.05 and hind foot length at birth, shorter in period 1 compared to the period 2 and 3 (4.4 vs. 4.7 and 4.8 cm; P≤0.05, and at weaning, shorter in period 1 than in 3 (8.6 vs. 9.6 cm; P≤0.05. Leveretsincreasedwithin21daystheirbodyweight6.26,6.76, Leverets increased within 21 days their body weight 6.26,6.76, 6.26, 6.76, and 6.97 foldinperiod1,2,and3,respectively.Maximumgrowthspeed(over40g/dinallbirthperiodswas in period 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Maximum growth speed (over 40g/d in all birth periods was reached at the 3rd week. These results were consistent with the best performances described in literature for this species. Our data can be useful to evaluate the development of leverets in other rearing centres in Southern Italy. Furthermore, our data can be helpful for aging young Brown hares captured in the field, for example inthosestudiesaimedtoanalyzethecompetitionbetweenBrownhareandendemicItalianhare in those studies aimed to analyze the competition between Brown hare and endemic Italian hare (LepuscorsicanusinMediterraneanecosystems. Lepus corsicanusinMediterraneanecosystems. in Mediterraneanecosystems. Mediterranean ecosystems. .

  17. One Measure Does Not a Construct Make: Directions toward Reinvigorating Psychopathy Research--Reply to Hare and Neumann (2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skeem, Jennifer L.; Cooke, David J.

    2010-01-01

    In our article (J. L. Skeem & D. J. Cooke, 2010), we outlined the dangers inherent in conflating the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. Hare, 1991) with psychopathy itself. In their response, R. Hare and C. Neumann (2010) seemed to agree with key points that the PCL-R should not be confused with psychopathy and that criminal behavior is not…

  18. Large-scale lagovirus disease outbreaks in European brown hares (Lepus europaeus) in France caused by RHDV2 strains spatially shared with rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus)

    OpenAIRE

    Le Gall-Reculé, Ghislaine; Lemaitre, Evelyne; Bertagnoli, Stéphane; Hubert, Céline; Top, Sokunthea; Decors, Anouk; Marchandeau, Stéphane; Guitton, Jean-Sébastien

    2017-01-01

    Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a lagovirus that causes rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In 2010, a new genotype called RHDV2 emerged in France. It exhibits a larger host range than classical RHDV strains by sporadically infecting different hare species, including the European hare (Lepus europaeus). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that closely related RHDV2 strains circulate locally in both hares and rabbits, and therefore that RHDV2 s...

  19. Acidity enhances the effectiveness of active chemical defensive secretions of sea hares, Aplysia californica, against spiny lobsters, Panulirus interruptus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabani, Shkelzen; Yaldiz, Seymanur; Vu, Luan; Derby, Charles D

    2007-12-01

    Sea hares such as Aplysia californica, gastropod molluscs lacking a protective shell, can release a purple cloud of chemicals when vigorously attacked by predators. This active chemical defense is composed of two glandular secretions, ink and opaline, both of which contain an array of compounds. This secretion defends sea hares against predators such as California spiny lobsters Panulirus interruptus via multiple mechanisms, one of which is phagomimicry, in which secretions containing feeding chemicals attract and distract predators toward the secretion and away from the sea hare. We show here that ink and opaline are highly acidic, both having a pH of approximately 5. We examined if the acidity of ink and opaline affects their phagomimetic properties. We tested behavioral and electrophysiological responses of chemoreceptor neurons in the olfactory and gustatory organs of P. interruptus, to ink and opaline of A. californica within their natural range of pH values, from approximately 5 to 8. Both behavioral and electrophysiological responses to ink and opaline were enhanced at low pH, and low pH alone accounted for most of this effect. Our data suggest that acidity enhances the phagomimetic chemical defense of sea hares.

  20. Detection of the new emerging rabbit haemorrhagic disease type 2 virus (RHDV2) in Sicily from rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and Italian hare (Lepus corsicanus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarda, A; Pugliese, N; Cavadini, P; Circella, E; Capucci, L; Caroli, A; Legretto, M; Mallia, E; Lavazza, A

    2014-12-01

    Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), a member of the genus Lagovirus, causes rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD), a fatal hepatitis of rabbits, not previously reported in hares. Recently, a new RHDV-related virus emerged, called RHDV2. This lagovirus can cause RHD in rabbits and disease and mortality in Lepus capensis (Cape hare). Here we describe a case of RHDV2 infection in another hare species, Lepus corsicanus, during a concurrent RHD outbreak in a group of wild rabbits. The same RHDV2 strain infected rabbits and a hare, also causing a RHD-like syndrome in the latter. Our findings confirmed the capability of RHDV2 to infect hosts other than rabbits and improve the knowledge about the epidemiology and the host range of this new lagovirus. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A cluster of tularaemia after contact with a dead hare in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Wetering, D.; dos Santos, C. Oliveira; Wagelaar, M.; de Kleuver, M.; Koene, M. G. J.; Roest, H. I. J.; Sinha, B.; Tomaso, H.; Bierman, W. F. W.; Stienstra, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Tularemia is thought to be rare in the Netherlands. Here we describe a cluster of two patients who contracted tularaemia after field dressing of a hare found dead. Additionally, infection from the same source is suggested in three animals.

  2. Psychopathy in Bulgaria: The cross-cultural generalizability of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Michael J.; Abramowitz, Carolyn; Vasilev, Georgi; Bozgunov, Kiril; Vassileva, Jasmin

    2014-01-01

    The generalizability of the psychopathy construct to Eastern European cultures has not been well-studied, and no prior studies have evaluated psychopathy in non-offender samples from this population. The current validation study examines the factor structure, internal consistency, and external validity of the Bulgarian translation of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version. Two hundred sixty-two Bulgarian adults from the general community were assessed, of which 185 had a history of substance dependence. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated good fit for the two-, three-, and four-factor models of psychopathy. Zero-order and partial correlation analyses were conducted between the two factors of psychopathy and criterion measures of antisocial behavior, internalizing and externalizing psychopathology, personality traits, addictive disorders and demographic characteristics. Relationships to external variables provided evidence for the convergent and discriminant validity of the psychopathy construct in a Bulgarian community sample. PMID:25313268

  3. A cluster of tularaemia after contact with a dead hare in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetering, van de D.; Oliveira dos Santos, C.; Wagelaar, M.; Kleuver, de M.; Koene, M.G.J.; Roest, H.I.J.; Sinha, B.; Tomaso, H.; Bierman, W.F.W.; Stienstra, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Tularemia is thought to be rare in the Netherlands. Here we describe a cluster of two patients who contracted tularaemia after field dressing of a hare found dead. Additionally, infection from the same source is suggested in three animals.

  4. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  5. The Ash Content of the Main Muscle Groups and Edible Offal Collected From Hares (Lepus europaeus Pallas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Tărnăuceanu Frunză

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The availability of hares (Lepus europaeus Pallas, unlike that of domestic rabbits, is restricted by hunting seasons. Rabbit meat, according to research from Spain, is a rich source of K, P, Fe and Mg, but poor in Na, being recommended for people with hypertension. The largest quantity of macro minerals studied in rabbit meat was determined for K and P, and the most abundant micro minerals were Zn, Fe, Cu and Mn. In hare meat, ash content is not sufficiently studied. The current low level of knowledge motivated the present study. The aim of this study was to establish the ash content for major muscle groups and edible offal of hares. The biological material used was collected from 49 hares with an average weight of 5.6 kg, at the age of reproductive maturity (adults: 11-12 months. Different muscle groups (the muscles Cervicalis, Intercostalis, Longissimus Dorsi, Psoas major, Triceps Brachi, Biceps femoris, Semimembranosus and the main edible offal (heart, liver, kidney were sampled. The ash was determined by calcination (in Supertherm C311 oven calcination at 5500C. The results obtained were interpreted statistically (arithmetic mean (X, standard deviation (s, variance (s2 and coefficient of variation (V% and the statistical significance of differences was tested using the ANOVA Single Factor algorithm (p>0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001. Ash content for the main muscle groups analysed varied from the lowest average values of 1.095% for the Intercostalis muscles, to the highest average values of 1.256%, for Triceps brachii muscles.

  6. The ligand-binding profile of HARE: hyaluronan and chondroitin sulfates A, C, and D bind to overlapping sites distinct from the sites for heparin, acetylated low-density lipoprotein, dermatan sulfate, and CS-E.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Edward N; Weigel, Paul H

    2008-08-01

    The hyaluronic acid receptor for endocytosis (HARE)/ Stabilin-2 is the primary systemic scavenger receptor for hyaluronan (HA), the chondroitin sulfates (CS), dermatan sulfate (DS), and nonglycosaminoglycan (GAG) ligands such as acetylated low-density lipoprotein (AcLDL), pro-collagen propeptides, and advanced glycation end products. We recently discovered that HARE is also a systemic scavenger receptor for heparin (Hep) (Harris EN, Weigel JA, Weigel PH. 2008. The human hyaluronan receptor for endocytosis [HARE/Stabilin-2] is a systemic clearance receptor for heparin. J Biol Chem. 283:17341-17350). Our goal was to map the binding sites of eight different ligands within HARE. We used biotinylated GAGs and radio-iodinated streptavidin or AcLDL to assess the binding activities of ligands directly or indirectly (by competition with unlabeled ligands) in endocytosis assays using stable cell lines expressing the 315 or 190 kDa HA receptor for endocytosis (315- or 190-HARE) isoforms, and ELISA-like assays, with purified recombinant soluble 190-HARE ecto-domain. For example, Hep binding to HARE was competed by DS, CS-E, AcLDL, and dextran sulfate, but not by other CS types, HA, dextran, or heparosan. (125)I-AcLDL binding to HARE was partially competed by Hep and dextran sulfate, but not competed by HA. Two ligands, DS and CS-E, competed with both Hep and HA to some degree. Hep and HA binding or endocytosis is mutually inclusive; binding of these two GAGs occurs with functionally separate, noncompetitive, and apparently noninteracting domains. Thus, HARE binds to HA and Hep simultaneously. Although the domain(s) responsible for Hep binding remains unknown, the Link domain was required for HARE binding to HA, CS-A, CS-C, and CS-D. These results enable us to outline, for the first time, a binding activity map for multiple ligands of HARE.

  7. Die opleiding van bedryfsielkundiges aan die universiteit van Fort Hare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Botha

    1977-11-01

    Full Text Available Die Departement Bedryfsielkunde aan die Universiteit van Fort Hare is 'n relatiewe jong departement en het eers in 1965 tot stand gekom. Voor hierdie datum is Bedryfsielkunde as 'n kort kursus deur die departement van suiwer Sielkunde aangebied en een van die destydse dosente, Dr. W. Backer, het die inisiatief geneem om 'n selfstandige departement van Bedryfsielkunde in die Fakulteit van Ekonomiese Wetenskappe op die been te bring.

  8. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  9. Analysis of Ground-Wind Vortex Sensing System Data from O'Hare International Airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-09-01

    From July 1976 through September 1977, aircraft wake vortex data were collected on the approach to runways 14R, 27R, and 32L at O'Hare International Airport. The vortices from over 21,000 aircraft were tracked using the propeller anemometer Ground-Wi...

  10. Surveys of mammal populations in the areas adjacent to Forsmark and Tierp. A pilot study 2001-2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cederlund, Goeran; Hammarstroem, Angelica; Wallin, Kjell [Svensk Viltfoervaltning AB, Ramsberg (Sweden)

    2003-04-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co is in the process of selecting a safe and environmentally acceptable location for the deep-level repository of radioactive waste. SKB has expressed the importance of monitoring mammal species that are of interest both in biodiversity issues and for local hunting and recreational purposes. To get relevant data on the dynamics of the mammal populations it is important to estimate the abundance and variations over time. Data achieved can be used to specifically monitor endangered species (like wolf, Canis lupus, and otter, Lutra lutra), detect effects from e.g. drilling activities on populations (important to hunters) and be used for assessment programs (MKB). One of the major goals is to monitor populations over several years and to obtain information that is essential for modelling of energy/carbon flows in the biosphere and ultimately calculations of the risks of exposure to radionuclide. From late 2001 to late spring 2002 a pilot study was accomplished in the areas surrounding the suggested areas in the Tierp region and in Forsmark (Oskarshamn was not included in this pilot study). A reference area was chosen near the coast some 20 km north of Forsmark. The aim was to initiate surveys of most of the larger mammal species that were expected to be found in the region. Selected species were wolf, lynx, otter, marten, mink, red fox, beaver, wild boar, red deer, roe deer, moose, European hare and mountain hare. Several methods were used and adapted to expected habitat use and expected local density of the species. Line transects were used on snow to index (frequency of tracks crossing the transects) or calculate actual number (for example the Buffon method). Pellet counts were used in spring to calculate hare and cervid (moose and deer species) density. In mid winter an aerial (helicopter) survey was conducted along the coast to count moose. The aquatic mammals were tracked on snow along selected parts of the streams and

  11. Surveys of mammal populations in the areas adjacent to Forsmark and Tierp. A pilot study 2001-2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cederlund, Goeran; Hammarstroem, Angelica; Wallin, Kjell

    2003-04-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co is in the process of selecting a safe and environmentally acceptable location for the deep-level repository of radioactive waste. SKB has expressed the importance of monitoring mammal species that are of interest both in biodiversity issues and for local hunting and recreational purposes. To get relevant data on the dynamics of the mammal populations it is important to estimate the abundance and variations over time. Data achieved can be used to specifically monitor endangered species (like wolf, Canis lupus, and otter, Lutra lutra), detect effects from e.g. drilling activities on populations (important to hunters) and be used for assessment programs (MKB). One of the major goals is to monitor populations over several years and to obtain information that is essential for modelling of energy/carbon flows in the biosphere and ultimately calculations of the risks of exposure to radionuclide. From late 2001 to late spring 2002 a pilot study was accomplished in the areas surrounding the suggested areas in the Tierp region and in Forsmark (Oskarshamn was not included in this pilot study). A reference area was chosen near the coast some 20 km north of Forsmark. The aim was to initiate surveys of most of the larger mammal species that were expected to be found in the region. Selected species were wolf, lynx, otter, marten, mink, red fox, beaver, wild boar, red deer, roe deer, moose, European hare and mountain hare. Several methods were used and adapted to expected habitat use and expected local density of the species. Line transects were used on snow to index (frequency of tracks crossing the transects) or calculate actual number (for example the Buffon method). Pellet counts were used in spring to calculate hare and cervid (moose and deer species) density. In mid winter an aerial (helicopter) survey was conducted along the coast to count moose. The aquatic mammals were tracked on snow along selected parts of the streams and

  12. Jagttider: Hare, agerhøne og ederfugl har behov for mere beskyttelse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Christian

    2009-01-01

    De fleste bestande af de jagtbare arter har det rigtigt godt, men tre af de klassiske vildtarter, hare, agerhøne og ederfugl, er i problemer. Det fremgår af en 284-siders udredning som Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser ved Aarhus Universitet (DMU) har udarbejdet som fagligt grundlag for revisionen af...

  13. Biogenic amines in the meat of hunted pheasant and hare during the course of storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdeňka Hutařová

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Venison is becoming more and more interesting for consumers. Although treatment procedures of hunted game differ from slaughtered livestock, the hygienic quality of game meat must still be ensured. Potential indicators of meat hygienic quality include the content of biogenic amines. The aim of the present study was to assess the content and changes of biogenic amines in the muscles of selected kinds of small game (common pheasant and brown hare during storage, and based on the obtained results, to assess the hygienic quality of the meat. Biogenic amines (putrescine, cadaverine, histamine, tyramine, phenylethylamine, and tryptamine in the breast and thigh muscles separated by reverse phase liquid chromatography and consequently were detected using tandem mass spectrometry. Based on the determined content of biogenic amines, both pheasant and hare meats complied with values of high quality meat. The sum of biogenic amines did not exceed the value of 5 mg/kg after 7 days at 0 °C or 7 °C in pheasant meat, and after 21 days at 0 °C or after 14 days at 7 °C in brown hare meat. The biogenic amine content and the speed of their formation in venison can be very helpful for the evaluation of both meat hygienic quality and safety of these foods during storage.

  14. Behavior and mortality of free-ranging raccoons, snowshoe hares, and striped skunks after exposure to 300 R γ radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tester, J.R.; Ternes, J.W.; Siniff, D.B.

    1977-01-01

    Free-ranging raccoons (Procyon lotor), snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) exposed to 300 R cesium-137 radiation were monitored by an automatic radio-tracking system. Five irradiated juvenile raccoons died within 30 days postirradiation, but no controls died. One irradiated and one control snowshoe hare were killed by predators within 30 days after irradiation. No skunks died. No consistent patterns of effects of the irradiation were detected in terms of size or location of home range or in the circadian rhythms

  15. Relationship between heavy metal accumulation and morphometric parameters in European hare (Lepus europaeus) inhabiting various types of landscapes in southern Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wajdzik, Marek; Halecki, Wiktor; Kalarus, Konrad; Gąsiorek, Michał; Pająk, Marek

    2017-11-01

    To evaluate the influence of hazardous substances in the environment, studies of pollutant accumulation in wild living animals are needed. Studies dealing with heavy metal contamination in mammals usually focus on a single organ. We investigated accumulation of heavy metals as well as iron in European hare (Lepus europaeus) living in southern Poland, Małopolska Province. Hares were captured during the hunting season. We tested metal accumulation in 14 organs and tissues using 35 individuals with known body weight and sex inhabiting agricultural, industrial and other types of landscapes. To obtain deeper insight into contamination patterns, we used accumulation data from the liver since it is the most frequently investigated organ and prone to pollution accumulation. Based on the data obtained for the liver, we tested the impact of metal pollution on hare morphology, including body length and several skull cranimetric parameters. Metals content differed between organs. Moreover, individuals from industrial areas had higher Cd content in their body. We distinguished two groups of elements: the first group, Cd, Fe and Zn, revealed the highest toxic effect in the liver and kidneys; the second group, Cr, Ni, and Pb, accumulated primarily in the brain. Hares inhabiting industrial areas had higher concentration of Cd and Pb, and lower levels of Cr and Fe in their liver in comparison with those from agricultural and forest habitats. Heavy metals had an effect on body length that was negatively associated with Cr levels. Skull diastema length was associated positively with accumulation of Cd and Pb. We showed that hare organs and tissues could be used as bioindicators of environmental pollution by heavy metals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Fire drives transcontinental variation in tree birch defense against browsing by snowshoe hares

    Science.gov (United States)

    John P. Bryant; Thomas P. Clausen; Robert K. Swihart; Simon M. Landhäusser; Michael T. Stevens; Christopher D. B. Hawkins; Suzanne Carrière; Andrei P. Kirilenko; Alasdair M. Veitch; Richard A. Popko; David T. Cleland; Joseph H. Williams; Walter J. Jakubas; Michael R. Carlson; Karin Lehmkuhl Bodony; Merben Cebrian; Thomas F. Paragi; Peter M. Picone; Jeffery E. Moore; Edmond C. Packee; Thomas Malone

    2009-01-01

    Fire has been the dominant disturbance in boreal America since the Pleistocene, resulting in a spatial mosaic in which the most fire occurs in the continental northwest. Spatial variation in snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) density reflects the fire mosaic. Because fire initiates secondary forest succession, a fire mosaic creates...

  17. Paleomagnetism of Eocene Talerua Member Lavas on Hareøen Island, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, N.; Schmidt, Anne G.; Riisager, P.

    2005-01-01

    The results of a palaeomagnetic sampling carried out along two vertical profiles (altogether 19 lavaflows, 126 samples) covering the entire stratigraphy of the Talerua Member lavas (~39 Myr old) that outcrop on the island Hareøen are presented and represent some of the youngest volcanism in the W...

  18. Environmental cadmium and zinc concentrations in liver and kidney of European hare from different Serbian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Zoran I.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The hares assayed (n=84 were divided into five age groups: 3-6; 12; 12-24; 24-36 and 36 + months. Between all sampling regions (11 significant differences of Cd levels were found in kidney and liver (p value, p=0.001 and 0.007, respectively . Significant statistical differences (p=0.001 are registered between Cd content in kidney and liver of hares among all represented age groups. Looking at all investigated hare samples, moderately higher concentrations of Zn were found in liver (median value: 25.4 mg/kg w.w compared to those in kidney (21.4 mg/kg. These differences were statistically significant (p=0.001. Zinc concentrations in liver, between all age groups, did not differ significantly (p=0.512 but in kidney these differences were statistically significant (p=0,001. Significant differences between Zn concentrations in liver in comparison to kidney (pairwise differences were found within every single age group with exception of the oldest (36+ . Strong statistically significant correlations (Ps- Pearson's correlation between Cd concentrations in kidney and liver were registered in three groups older than 12 months (Ps=0.81, p=0.001; 0.78, p=0.001; and 0.79, p=0.001, respectively. Negative correlation between Zn and Cd concentrations were found in liver samples within the age group of 12 months (Ps= -0,67, p=0.004.

  19. Role of the Digestive Gland in Ink Production in Four Species of Sea Hares: An Ultrastructural Comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey S. Prince

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The ultrastructure of the digestive gland of several sea hare species that produce different colored ink (Aplysia californica produces purple ink, A. juliana white ink, A. parvula both white and purple ink, while Dolabrifera dolabrifera produces no ink at all was compared to determine the digestive gland’s role in the diet-derived ink production process. Rhodoplast digestive cells and their digestive vacuoles, the site of digestion of red algal chloroplast (i.e., rhodoplast in A. californica, were present and had a similar ultrastructure in all four species. Rhodoplast digestive cell vacuoles either contained a whole rhodoplast or fragments of one or were empty. These results suggest that the inability to produce colored ink in some sea hare species is not due to either an absence of appropriate digestive machinery, that is, rhodoplast digestive cells, or an apparent failure of rhodoplast digestive cells to function. These results also propose that the digestive gland structure described herein occurred early in sea hare evolution, at least in the common ancestor to the genera Aplysia and Dolabrifera. Our data, however, do not support the hypothesis that the loss of purple inking is a synapomorphy of the white-ink-producing subgenus Aplysia.

  20. Reproductive traits in the european Hare (Lepus europaeus Pallas: the typical or Brown and the Mountain haplotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Ragagli

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Four hundred and two pairs of hares belonging to the mountain and brown haplotypes of the European hare Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778 were raised in a farm located in central Italy over 4 years (from 2003 to 2006. The birth date, total number of young born, and number of surviving and weaned leverets were recorded for each pair. The start of reproduction, birth-interval, length of the reproductive season, number of birth per pair per year, number of leverets per pair, number of weaned leverets per pair and number of weaned leverets per birth were analysed in relation to the different haplotypes and years; the incidence of superfetation and pseudogestation was also considered. Results showed that the brown hare produced young at the beginning of February, whilst the mountain hare started reproduction significantly later. Brown hares showed a longer reproductive period than mountain hares (192 days vs 156 days and a higher productivity. The most frequent gestation length was 37-41 days. The distribution of delivery intervals did not differ between the two haplotypes. Riassunto Caratteristiche riproduttive di due aplotipi della lepre (Lepus europaeus Pallas 1778. Lepri (Lepus europaeus Pallas 1778 appartenenti all’aplotipo di montagna e a quello bruno sono state monitorate per 4 anni (dal 2003 al 2006 in uno stesso allevamento situato in una zona dell’Italia centrale. Per ciascuna coppia di riproduttori allevata (N = 402 sono stati raccolti i dati relativi a: data del parto, numero totale di nati, numero totale di nati vivi e di leprotti svezzati. L’inizio del periodo riproduttivo, l’intervallo interparto, la durata della gestazione, la durata della stagione riproduttiva, il numero di parti per coppia per anno, il numero di nati per coppia, il numero di svezzati per coppia, il numero di svezzati per parto sono stati analizzati in relazione ai

  1. Home ranges of brown hares in a natural salt marsh: comparisons with agricultural systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunst, P.; Wal, van der R.; Wieren, van S.E.

    2001-01-01

    This is the first study on spatial behaviour of brown hares Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778 based on radio-telemetry in a natural system, which we contrast with data from agricultural systems. Radio tracking took place in a Dutch salt marsh over a 10-month period, with intensive tracking sessions

  2. Home ranges of brown hares in a natural salt marsh : comparisons with agricultural systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunst, PJG; van der Wal, R; van Wieren, Sip

    This is the first study on spatial behaviour of brown hares Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778 based on radio-telemetry in a natural system, which we contrast with data from agricultural systems. Radio tracking took place in a Dutch salt marsh over a 10-month period, with intensive tracking sessions

  3. SNP Identification through Transcriptome Analysis of the European Brown Hare (Lepus europaeus: Cellular Energetics and Mother's Curse.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grigoris D Amoutzias

    Full Text Available The European brown hare (Lepus europaeus, Pallas 1778 is an important small game species in Europe. Due to its size and position in the food chain, as well as its life history, phenotypic variation and the relatively recent speciation events, brown hare plays an important role in the structure of various ecosystems and has emerged as an important species for population management and evolutionary studies. In order to identify informative SNPs for such studies, heart and liver tissues of three samples from the European lineage and a three-sample pool from the Anatolian lineage were subjected to RNA-Sequencing analysis. This effort resulted in 9496 well-assembled protein-coding sequences with close homology to human. After applying very stringent filtering criteria, 66185 polymorphic sites were identified in 7665 genes/cds and 2050 of those polymorphic sites are potentially capable of distinguishing the European from the Anatolian lineage. From these distinguishing mutations we focused on those in genes that are involved in cellular energy production, namely the glycolysis, Krebs cycle and the OXPHOS machinery. A selected set of SNPs was also validated by Sanger sequencing. By simulating the three European individuals as one pool, no substantial informative-SNP identification was lost, making it a cost-efficient approach. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to correlate the differentiation in both nuclear and mitochondrial genome between the two different lineages of L. europaeus with the observed spatial partitioning of the lineages of the species, proposing a possible mechanism that is maintaining the reproductive isolation of the lineages.

  4. De kapitein in zijn labyrint. Het veelzijdige schrijverschap van Haring van Harinxma (1604-1669)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moser, P.H.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract - Haring van Harinxma (1604-1669) was a Calvinist member of the Frisian nobility, a military man, a painter, poet and translator. This article discusses the various ways in which he used and adapted literary sources in his own work. The focus is on two prose texts: Doolhof van Socia

  5. On an anomalous species of Hare discovered in the Isle of Sumatra: Lepus netscheri

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schlegel, H.

    1880-01-01

    The researches of naturalists hitherto made in order to ascertain the geographical range of the hare-tribe have led to the conclusion, that these animals, spread over the whole of America and Europe, over Northern and South-Africa, as well as over a great part of Asia, are not found in the

  6. Phylogeny of the sea hares in the aplysia clade based on mitochondrial DNA sequence data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medina, Monica; Collins, Timothy; Walsh, Patrick J.

    2004-02-20

    Sea hare species within the Aplysia clade are distributed worldwide. Their phylogenetic and biogeographic relationships are, however, still poorly known. New molecular evidence is presented from a portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase c subunit 1 gene (cox1) that improves our understanding of the phylogeny of the group. Based on these data a preliminary discussion of the present distribution of sea hares in a biogeographic context is put forward. Our findings are consistent with only some aspects of the current taxonomy and nomenclatural changes are proposed. The first, is the use of a rank free classification for the different Aplysia clades and subclades as opposed to previously used genus and subgenus affiliations. The second, is the suggestion that Aplysia brasiliana (Rang, 1828) is a junior synonym of Aplysia fasciata (Poiret, 1789). The third, is the elimination of Neaplysia since its only member is confirmed to be part of the large Varria clade.

  7. European hare Lepus europaeus(Lagomorpha: Leporidae an invasive species in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horacio Zeballos

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe the current distribution of the European hare, Lepus europaeus, in Peru which currently covers the highlands, Andean valleys, surrounding areas of the Titicaca Lake and coastal irrigations; in Arequipa, Cusco, Moquegua, Puno and Tacna departments. Based on its current distribution we developed models of potential distribution of this species, which would forecast this species in northern Peru. We make recommendations on the main issues that should be studied in Peru, and the possible consequences of their invasive process of in Peru.

  8. The effect of severe drought on the abundance of ticks on vegetation and on scrub hares in the Kruger National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Spickett

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available Free-living ixodid ticks were collected monthly from August 1988 to July 1993 from the vegetation of landscape zones 17 (Sclerocarya caffra/Acacia nigrescens Savanna and 4 (Thickets of the Sabie and Crocodile Rivers in the south-east and south-west of the Kruger National Park respectively, and parasitic ticks from scrub hares in the latter landscape zone. Total tick collections from the vegetation of both landscape zones were lowest in the year following the drought year of August 1991 to July 1992, while the tick burdens of the scrub hares were lowest during the drought year itself.

  9. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A

    1977-01-01

    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  10. Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.

    2010-01-01

    We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying

  11. Chemical Diversity and Biological Properties of Secondary Metabolites from Sea Hares of Aplysia Genus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato B. Pereira

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The marine environment is an important source of structurally-diverse and biologically-active secondary metabolites. During the last two decades, thousands of compounds were discovered in marine organisms, several of them having inspired the development of new classes of therapeutic agents. Marine mollusks constitute a successful phyla in the discovery of new marine natural products (MNPs. Over a 50-year period from 1963, 116 genera of mollusks contributed innumerous compounds, Aplysia being the most studied genus by MNP chemists. This genus includes 36 valid species and should be distinguished from all mollusks as it yielded numerous new natural products. Aplysia sea hares are herbivorous mollusks, which have been proven to be a rich source of secondary metabolites, mostly of dietary origin. The majority of secondary metabolites isolated from sea hares of the genus Aplysia are halogenated terpenes; however, these animals are also a source of compounds from other chemical classes, such as macrolides, sterols and alkaloids, often exhibiting cytotoxic, antibacterial, antifungal, antiviral and/or antifeedant activities. This review focuses on the diverse structural classes of secondary metabolites found in Aplysia spp., including several compounds with pronounced biological properties.

  12. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  13. Tularaemia in a brown hare (lepus europaeus) in 2013: first case in the netherlands in 60 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijks, J.M.; Kik, M.; Koene, M.G.J.; Engelsma, M.Y.; Tulden, van P.W.; Montizaan, M.G.; Oomen, T.; Spierenburg, M.A.H.; Ijzer, J.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.; Gröne, A.; Roest, H.I.J.

    2013-01-01

    Tularaemia has not been reported in Dutch wildlife since 1953. To enhance detection, as of July 2011, brown hares (Lepus europaeus) submitted for post-mortem examination in the context of non-targeted wildlife disease surveillance, were routinely tested for tularaemia by polymerase chain reaction

  14. Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

  15. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  16. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  17. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  18. Toxoplasma gondii infection in the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) and domestic rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). II. Early immune reactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gustafsson, K.; Wattrang, E.; Fossum, C.

    1997-01-01

    As already reported, the mountain hare is much more susceptible than the domestic rabbit to oral inoculation with Toxoplasma gondii, as judged by pathological changes and dissemination of parasites within the body. In the present paper, further interspecies variations are reported. Concentrations...

  19. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  20. Monitoring of Francisella tularensis and Yersinia pseudotuberculosis in Danish hares (Lepus europaeus) by fluorescent in-situ hybridization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Mette Sif; Chriél, Mariann; Larsen, Gitte

    . pseudotuberculosis has a wide host range and causes high mortality in hares. When it comes to zoonotic potential F. tularensis poses the major risk for humans, where it causes tularemia - a potentially deadly disease. FISH is an easy, cheap and not at least safe method for monitoring F. tularensis and Y...

  1. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  2. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  3. Expansión Hare Krishna en contextos de crisis: resignificando la movilización social desde una perspectiva religiosa en Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahamondes González, Luis Andrés

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the expansion of the Hare Krishna movement in Santiago, Chile, analysing mobilization discourse and mechanisms adopted in the face of the social upheavals of the new millennium. It seeks to understand not only recent internal transformation of the Hare Krishna movement, but also to identify social action strategies and independent policies concerning social issues in the public arena. We will analyse the active position the religious group has embraced in a context of growing social demands and how its actions are guided by the philosophical and spiritual conception of its doctrine.La presente investigación se focalizará en la expansión del movimiento Hare Krishna en Santiago de Chile, analizando los discursos y mecanismos de movilización que desarrollan sus integrantes frente al escenario de agitación social vivido con la llegada del nuevo milenio. Con ello no solo se buscará vislumbrar las transformaciones internas acaecidas en el movimiento durante el último tiempo, sino además pretendemos identificar estrategias de acción social y políticas independientes frente a inquietudes o problemas sociales instalados en la agenda pública. De esta forma, analizaremos la manera como este grupo religioso se posiciona activamente en un escenario de demandas sociales y guía su accionar desde la particularidad filosófica y espiritual de su doctrina.

  4. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  5. Toxic, antimicrobial and hemagglutinating activities of the purple fluid of the sea hare Aplysia dactylomela Rang, 1828

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melo V.M.M.

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The antimicrobial, hemagglutinating and toxic activities of the purple fluid of the sea hare Aplysia dactylomela are described. Intact or dialyzed purple fluid inhibited the growth of species of Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria and the action was not bactericidal but bacteriostatic. The active factor or factors were heat labile and sensitive to extreme pH values. The fluid preferentially agglutinated rabbit erythrocytes and, to a lesser extent, human blood cells, and this activity was inhibited by the glycoprotein fetuin, a fact suggesting the presence of a lectin. The fluid was also toxic to brine shrimp nauplii (LD50 141.25 µg protein/ml and to mice injected intraperitoneally (LD50 201.8 ± 8.6 mg protein/kg, in a dose-dependent fashion. These toxic activities were abolished when the fluid was heated. Taken together, the data suggest that the activities of the purple fluid are due primarily to substance(s of a protein nature which may be involved in the chemical defense mechanism of this sea hare.

  6. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  7. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

  8. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  9. Macroscopic Study of Celiac, Cranial Mesenteric and Caudal Mesenteric Arteries in the European Hare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flešárová S.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to describe the branching schema of the ventral branches of the abdominal aorta: the a. celiaca, the a. mesenterica cranialis and the a. mesenterica caudalis. The study was carried out on nine adult European hares using the corrosion cast technique. After the euthanasia, the vascular network was perfused with saline. Batson’s corrosion casting kit No. 17 was used as a casting medium. After polymerisation of the medium, the maceration was carried out in KOH solution. In all specimens, the first branch originating from the a. celiaca was the a. lienalis. The a. hepatica was present as the second branch in four cases and as the third branch also in four cases. The first branch of the a. mesenterica cranialis was the a. colica media in seven cases. The second branch was represented by the a. pancreaticoduodenalis caudalis also in seven cases. Two aa. jejunales originated as the third branch. In seven cases, the fourth branch formed the truncus jejunalis and the fifth branch the a. ileocecalis. The a. mesenterica caudalis had a uniform arrangement in all of the specimens. The results enabled us to conclude that there was higher variability of the branching pattern of the a. celiaca in comparison with the a. mesenterica cranialis and the a. mesenterica caudalis in the European hare.

  10. Study of intraarticular application of 166-Holmium IHPP in healthy hares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szentesi, M.; Koernyei, J.; Antalffi, M.; Toerkoe, J.; Toth, G.Y.; Janoki, G.Y.; Balogh, L.

    2002-01-01

    Radiosynoviorthesis non invasive therapy in rheumatoid arthritis is an alternative of surgical synovectomy. This method was applied first by Fellinger in 1952, and since then it has been practiced all over the world. The leakage of traditionally applied isotopes is cca. 4-10%, and the whole body dose is 10 rads. The objective of our work is to produce a nuclear medication with a minimum radioactive load, of short half-life and ideal molecule size for the treatment of radiosynoviorthesis / 166- Holmium IHPP / and the study of its effect on healthy hares. The first results have been already reported on previously. 166-Holmium IHPP has the features of: half-life of 26.9 hr, the maximum soft-tissue penetration of a beta particle 1.84 MeV, emitted from 166-Ho 8.4 mm. With an average of 3.3 mm. Methods applied: Biodistribution analysis, gamma camera analysis, biochemical and histological tests with photo- and electro microscope were carried out on healthy New Zealand hares 6, 24, 72, 168 hours after radiosynoviorthesis. Results: All the testing methods applied showed that 97 /96,1-98,2/ % remained on the spot of the injection and the 2/3 of the small percentage released leakage: is excreted by the liver and the other 1/3 of it with the urine.The hematological and biochemical parameters did not show differences. During histological examination moderate level acute radioarthritis in the knee joint treated was observed (6-24 hours after the injection), then moderate level subacute radioarthritis with slight degeneration in the synovial membrane and in the synovial fluid. It was only the electro microscopic examination that did show a minimal degeneration in the cartilage and in the menisci, but it got regenerated in 168 hours. Conclusion: The examination carried out has proved that 166-Ho -IHPP can be effectively applied in radiosynoviorthesis. Clinical testing has started

  11. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  12. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  13. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  14. Ossian & the Hare: An Experiment in Poetry and the Alchemy of Film

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson, Naomi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ossian & the Hare is an experimental film-essay combination intended to work like two sides of the one coin. The 20-minute long film is designed to be more experiential than narrative driven, moving us through various spaces and atmospheres as if in a kind of dreamscape. In pointing up some of the thinking and ideas that are embedded in the film, the text provides a framework situating the film within a film-as-artwork context. It outlines many of the influences that contribute both to visual style and content, offering more depth to the overall experience of viewing the film.

  15. Populační dynamika zajíce polního (Lepus europaeus) na střední Moravě

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zbořil, J.; Hladíková, B.; Tkadlec, Emil

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 38, 1-2 (2007), s. 89-97 ISSN 0024-7774 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/04/2003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : population dynamics * brown hare * Czech Republic Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  16. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  17. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  18. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  19. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  20. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  1. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  2. Karyological comparisons of the European hare (Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778 from the Asian part of Turkey, with morphological contributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tez C.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We focused on a comparison of karyological data for the European brown hare Lepus europaeus, from the Asian part of Turkey. In Turkish L. europaeus, the diploid number (2n, the fundamental number of chromosomal arms (FN and the number of autosomal arms (FNa were determined to be 2n=48, 84 and 80, respectively. The autosomes are composed of three pairs of metacentric chromosomes, four pairs of submetacentric chromosomes, ten pairs of subtelocentric chromosomes and six pairs of acrocentric chromosomes. The X chromosome was a medium-large submetacentric and the Y chromosome was a very small acrocentric. This is the third report for L. europaeus from Turkey and confirmed the previous results with regard to 2n. However, when comparing our findings with those of other authors, there were karyotypic differences among the chromosomes. These differences were related to the number of chromosome arms. Additionally, we present the skull measurements of seven samples for the Turkish brown hare collected from three localities, and these measurements conformed to those of previous studies.

  3. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  4. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

  5. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  6. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  7. Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

    We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

  8. Colonization history of Mallorca Island by the European rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus, and the Iberian hare, Lepus granatensis (Lagomorpha: Leporidae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seixas, Fernando A.; Juste, Javier; Campos, Paula

    2014-01-01

    sequence variation of the mitochondrial DNA control region from continental and insular specimens (total of 489 sequences). Additionally, the taxonomic identity of Mallorcan L. granatensis was confirmed using a diagnostic nuclear marker. For both Mallorcan rabbits and hares, genetic diversity...

  9. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  10. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Hare and Others on the Proposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Corcoran

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available History witnesses alternative approaches to “the proposition”. The proposition has been referred to as the object of belief, disbelief, and doubt: generally as the object of propositional attitudes, that which can be said to be believed, disbelieved, understood, etc. It has also been taken to be the object of grasping, judging, assuming, affirming, denying, and inquiring: generally as the object of propositional actions, that which can be said to be grasped, judged true or false, assumed for reasoning purposes, etc. The proposition has also been taken to be the subject of truth and falsity: generally as the subject of propositional properties, that which can be said to be true, false, tautological, informative, inconsistent, etc. It has also been taken as the subject and object of logical relations, e.g. that which can be said to imply, be implied, contradict, be contradicted, etc. Prima facie, such properties and relations are non-mental and objective. It has also been taken to be the resultants or products of propositional operations, usually mental or linguistic; e.g. judging, affirming, and denying have been held to produce propositions called judgments, affirmations, and negations, respectively. Propositions have also been taken to be certain declarative sentences. Finally, propositions have been taken to be meanings of certain declarative sentences. This essay is an informal, selective, and incomplete survey of alternative approaches to “the proposition” with special attention to the views of the late American philosopher Peter Hare (1935–2008 and of those who influenced him.

  12. Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna

    2015-01-01

    Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics

  13. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  14. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  15. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  16. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

  17. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...

  18. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  19. DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    DYNAMICS OFCercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED AGRO- ..... Population differentiation of Cercospora zeina in three districts of Uganda based on analysis of molecular variance ..... interactions: The example of the Erysiphe.

  20. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.

  1. Functional responses of human hunters to their prey - why harvest statistics may not always reflect changes in prey population abundance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahlert, Johnny Abildgaard; Fox, Anthony David; Heldbjerg, Henning

    pigeon Columba palumbus, coot Fulica atra, grey partridge Perdix perdix, roe deer Capreolus capreolus and brown hare Lepus europaeus in Denmark. If we consider hunting a form of predator-prey interaction, the annual kill can be viewed as a predator functional response to prey population size. Convergence...

  2. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  3. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-12-26

    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  4. The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

    2011-11-01

    Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  5. Landscape structure and management alter the outcome of a pesticide ERA: Evaluating impacts of endocrine disruption using the ALMaSS European Brown Hare model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Chris J; Dalby, Lars; Skov, Flemming

    2016-01-15

    There is a gradual change towards explicitly considering landscapes in regulatory risk assessment. To realise the objective of developing representative scenarios for risk assessment it is necessary to know how detailed a landscape representation is needed to generate a realistic risk assessment, and indeed how to generate such landscapes. This paper evaluates the contribution of landscape and farming components to a model based risk assessment of a fictitious endocrine disruptor on hares. In addition, we present methods and code examples for generation of landscape structures and farming simulation from data collected primarily for EU agricultural subsidy support and GIS map data. Ten different Danish landscapes were generated and the ERA carried out for each landscape using two different assumed toxicities. The results showed negative impacts in all cases, but the extent and form in terms of impacts on abundance or occupancy differed greatly between landscapes. A meta-model was created, predicting impact from landscape and farming characteristics. Scenarios based on all combinations of farming and landscape for five landscapes representing extreme and middle impacts were created. The meta-models developed from the 10 real landscapes failed to predict impacts for these 25 scenarios. Landscape, farming, and the emergent density of hares all influenced the results of the risk assessment considerably. The study indicates that prediction of a reasonable worst case scenario is difficult from structural, farming or population metrics; rather the emergent properties generated from interactions between landscape, management and ecology are needed. Meta-modelling may also fail to predict impacts, even when restricting inputs to combinations of those used to create the model. Future ERA may therefore need to make use of multiple scenarios representing a wide range of conditions to avoid locally unacceptable risks. This approach could now be feasible Europe wide given the

  6. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  7. Psychometric properties of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) in a representative sample of Canadian federal offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storey, Jennifer E; Hart, Stephen D; Cooke, David J; Michie, Christine

    2016-04-01

    The Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 2003) is a commonly used psychological test for assessing traits of psychopathic personality disorder. Despite the abundance of research using the PCL-R, the vast majority of research used samples of convenience rather than systematic methods to minimize sampling bias and maximize the generalizability of findings. This potentially complicates the interpretation of test scores and research findings, including the "norms" for offenders from the United States and Canada included in the PCL-R manual. In the current study, we evaluated the psychometric properties of PCL-R scores for all male offenders admitted to a regional reception center of the Correctional Service of Canada during a 1-year period (n = 375). Because offenders were admitted for assessment prior to institutional classification, they comprise a sample that was heterogeneous with respect to correctional risks and needs yet representative of all offenders in that region of the service. We examined the distribution of PCL-R scores, classical test theory indices of its structural reliability, the factor structure of test items, and the external correlates of test scores. The findings were highly consistent with those typically reported in previous studies. We interpret these results as indicating it is unlikely any sampling limitations of past research using the PCL-R resulted in findings that were, overall, strongly biased or unrepresentative. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  9. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  10. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  11. Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

  12. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  13. Wildlife Population Dynamics in Human-Dominated Landscapes under Community-Based Conservation: The Example of Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph O Ogutu

    Full Text Available Wildlife conservation is facing numerous and mounting challenges on private and communal lands in Africa, including in Kenya. We analyze the population dynamics of 44 common wildlife species in relation to rainfall variation in the Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy (NWC, located in the Nakuru-Naivasha region of Kenya, based on ground total counts carried out twice each year from March 1996 to May 2015. Rainfall in the region was quasi-periodic with cycle periods dependent on the rainfall component and varying from 2.8 years for the dry season to 10.9 years for the wet season. These oscillations are associated with frequent severe droughts and food scarcity for herbivores. The trends for the 44 wildlife species showed five general patterns during 1996-2015. 1 Steinbuck, bushbuck, hartebeest and greater kudu numbers declined persistently and significantly throughout 1996-2015 and thus merit the greatest conservation attention. 2 Klipspringer, mongoose, oribi, porcupine, cheetah, leopard, ostrich and Sykes monkey numbers also decreased noticeably but not significantly between 1996 and 2015. 3 Dik dik, eland, African hare, Jackal, duiker, hippo and Thomson's gazelle numbers first increased and then declined between 1996 and 2015 but only significantly for duiker and hippo. 4 Aardvark, serval cat, colobus monkey, bat-eared fox, reedbuck, hyena and baboon numbers first declined and then increased but only the increases in reedbuck and baboon numbers were significant. 5 Grant's gazelle, Grevy's zebra, lion, spring hare, Burchell's zebra, bushpig, white rhino, rock hyrax, topi, oryx, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe, and wildebeest numbers increased consistently between 1996 and 2015. The increase was significant only for rock hyrax, topi, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe and wildebeest. 6 Impala, buffalo, warthog, and waterbuck, numbers increased significantly and then seemed to level off between 1996 and 2015. The aggregate biomass of primates and

  14. Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

    1987-01-01

    1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

  15. Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone

    2011-01-01

    We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.

  16. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

  17. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  18. Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

  19. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  20. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

  1. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  2. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  3. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  5. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  6. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  7. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

    2012-12-01

    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

    2014-05-06

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

  9. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2005-10-01

    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  10. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  11. Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

    2018-04-01

    How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

  12. Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

    2016-11-01

    Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

  13. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  14. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  15. Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles G Nathanson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.

  16. Use of the sea hare (Aplysia fasciata) in marine pollution biomonitoring of harbors and bays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirrigl, Frank J; Badaoui, Zachariah; Tamez, Carlos; Vitek, Christopher J; Parsons, Jason G

    2017-10-27

    Our study evaluated heavy metal concentrations in soft tissues of sea hare, Aplysia fasciata, from the Lower Laguna Madre, Texas. Heavy metals in tissues followed Se>As>Pb>Cd. Concentrations ranged As (BDL-28.08), Cd (BDL-5.50), Pb (BDL-12.85) and Se (4.25-93.43ppm). Median As, Cd, Pb, and Se tissue levels exceeded exposure levels. Significant relationships occurred in metal-metal (AsCd, AsPb, CdPb, CdSe, and PbSe), metal-tissue (significant Se uptake by inhalant and exhalant siphons and As in the hepatopancreas), and metal-metal within tissue (AsPb in the hepatopancreas and CdPb in the digestive cecum) analyses (pmarine pollution in harbors and bays. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  18. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  19. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  20. Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

    2018-12-01

    An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

  1. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  2. Keith Haring, Felix Gonzalez-Torres, Wolfgang Tillmans, and the AIDS Epidemic: The Use of Visual Art in a Health Humanities Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A

    2018-02-23

    Contemporary art can be a powerful pedagogical tool in the health humanities. Students in an undergraduate course in the health humanities explore the subjective experience of illness and develop their empathy by studying three artists in the context of the AIDS epidemic: Keith Haring, Felix Gonzalez-Torres, and Wolfgang Tillmans. Using assignments based in narrative pedagogy, students expand their empathic response to pain and suffering. The role of visual art in health humanities pedagogy is discussed.

  3. Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

    2007-06-01

    Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

  4. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population

  5. Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

    2018-05-07

    When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  7. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  8. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  9. Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

    We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

  10. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  11. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  12. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  13. SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity

    OpenAIRE

    Volz, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...

  14. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  15. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayank N Vahia

    Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  16. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz Silva, Luis

    2005-01-01

    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  17. Reticulate evolution: frequent introgressive hybridization among chinese hares (genus lepus revealed by analyses of multiple mitochondrial and nuclear DNA loci

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Shi-Fang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Interspecific hybridization may lead to the introgression of genes and genomes across species barriers and contribute to a reticulate evolutionary pattern and thus taxonomic uncertainties. Since several previous studies have demonstrated that introgressive hybridization has occurred among some species within Lepus, therefore it is possible that introgressive hybridization events also occur among Chinese Lepus species and contribute to the current taxonomic confusion. Results Data from four mtDNA genes, from 116 individuals, and one nuclear gene, from 119 individuals, provides the first evidence of frequent introgression events via historical and recent interspecific hybridizations among six Chinese Lepus species. Remarkably, the mtDNA of L. mandshuricus was completely replaced by mtDNA from L. timidus and L. sinensis. Analysis of the nuclear DNA sequence revealed a high proportion of heterozygous genotypes containing alleles from two divergent clades and that several haplotypes were shared among species, suggesting repeated and recent introgression. Furthermore, results from the present analyses suggest that Chinese hares belong to eight species. Conclusion This study provides a framework for understanding the patterns of speciation and the taxonomy of this clade. The existence of morphological intermediates and atypical mitochondrial gene genealogies resulting from frequent hybridization events likely contribute to the current taxonomic confusion of Chinese hares. The present study also demonstrated that nuclear gene sequence could offer a powerful complementary data set with mtDNA in tracing a complete evolutionary history of recently diverged species.

  18. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  19. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  20. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  1. An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

  2. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  3. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  4. Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Xu Zhou

    Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

  5. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  6. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  7. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

  8. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef

    This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

  9. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

    2005-01-01

    In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

  11. Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

    2018-05-01

    We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

  12. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  13. Game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto in 2010-2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieminen, M.; Niemi, M.; Jussila, I.

    2011-10-01

    The game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto were updated in the summer 2011 and compared with earlier statistics. Population size estimates are based on interviews of the local hunters. No moose or deer inventories were made in the winter 2010-2011. The moose population is stable when compared with the previous year. The white-tailed deer population is stable or slightly increasing when compared with the previous year. The changes in the roe deer population are not accurately known, but population size varies somewhat from year to year. The number of hunted raccoon dogs approximately doubled in the latest hunting season. Altogether two waterfowl were hunted in 2010 (17 in the previous year). The populations of mountain hare and red squirrel are abundant, and the number of hunted mountain hares approximately doubled when compared with the previous hunting season. The brown hare population is still small. In the winter, there were observations of one lynx spending time in the area. (orig.)

  14. Game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto in 2010-2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieminen, M. [Faunatica Oy, Espoo (Finland); Niemi, M. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland), Dept. of Forest Sciences; Jussila, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland), Satakunta Environmental Research Inst.

    2011-10-15

    The game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto were updated in the summer 2011 and compared with earlier statistics. Population size estimates are based on interviews of the local hunters. No moose or deer inventories were made in the winter 2010-2011. The moose population is stable when compared with the previous year. The white-tailed deer population is stable or slightly increasing when compared with the previous year. The changes in the roe deer population are not accurately known, but population size varies somewhat from year to year. The number of hunted raccoon dogs approximately doubled in the latest hunting season. Altogether two waterfowl were hunted in 2010 (17 in the previous year). The populations of mountain hare and red squirrel are abundant, and the number of hunted mountain hares approximately doubled when compared with the previous hunting season. The brown hare population is still small. In the winter, there were observations of one lynx spending time in the area. (orig.)

  15. Endogenous hepatitis C virus homolog fragments in European rabbit and hare genomes replicate in cell culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Silva

    Full Text Available Endogenous retroviruses, non-retroviral RNA viruses and DNA viruses have been found in the mammalian genomes. The origin of Hepatitis C virus (HCV, the major cause of chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma in humans, remains unclear since its discovery. Here we show that fragments homologous to HCV structural and non-structural (NS proteins present in the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus and hare (Lepus europaeus genomes replicate in bovine cell cultures. The HCV genomic homolog fragments were demonstrated by RT-PCR, PCR, mass spectrometry, and replication in bovine cell cultures by immunofluorescence assay (IFA and immunogold electron microscopy (IEM using specific MAbs for HCV NS3, NS4A, and NS5 proteins. These findings may lead to novel research approaches on the HCV origin, genesis, evolution and diversity.

  16. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  17. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.

    1993-01-01

    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  18. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  19. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...

  20. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  1. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand

  2. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  3. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  4. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  5. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  6. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    -up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...

  7. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  8. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  9. Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

  10. Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-10-01

    Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

  11. Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

    2018-01-01

    Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

  12. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  13. Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S

  14. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Porčić

    Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

  15. Abundancia y distribución de la liebre ibérica (Lepus granatensis Rosenhauer, 1856 en el Parque Natural de la Sierra de Mariola (Alicante-Valencia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belda, A.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Abundance and distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis Rosenhauer, 1856 in the Sierra de Mariola Natural Park (Alicante-Valencia The Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis Rosenhauer, 1856 is a species of great value in Spanish Mediterranean ecosystems for several reasons, such as its interest to hunters, its contribution to soil fertility and plant diversity, and its role as prey. However, factors such as fragmentation, degradation and loss of habitat and diseases, predation and high pressure hunting are having a detrimental effect on the conservation of the species. It is therefore of interest to determine the abundance and distribution of the Iberian hare in areas of the peninsula where there are insufficient data to establish guidelines for conservation and sustainable management of hare populations in the peninsula. Our goal was to assess the abundance and distribution of the Iberian hare in the most widely used areas of a mountainous Mediterranean landscape in the Iberian peninsular (Mariola Mountain Park, located between the provinces of Alicante and Valencia. Data obtained from studies conducted in transects from 2008 to 2010 showed that intra-annual abundance was highest in spring (KIA half of 0.26 hares/km and lowest in winter (average 0.075 KIA hares/km. As to their preferences in relation to land use, abundance was highest in the matrix of dry groves (KIA half of 0.33 hares/km and irrigated groves (average 0.2 KIA hares/km. The matrix of natural vegetation and agricultural abandonment had low numbers of hares, with values of 0.083 and 0.033 hares/km, respectively.

  16. Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

    2002-02-01

    Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

  17. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  18. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  19. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  20. Infestation of mammals by Ixodes ricinus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) in south-central Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tälleklint, L; Jaenson, T G

    1997-12-01

    Infestation by Ixodes ricinus ticks on rodents, hares and cervids was examined at Bogesund, 10 km north of Stockholm, in south-central Sweden during 1991-1994 and on varying hares (Lepus timidus) at Stora Karlsö and Gotska Sandön in the Baltic Sea during 1992-1993. At Bogesund, there were great differences between two consecutive years in the number of I. ricinus larvae infesting bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus). The seasonal pattern of infestation by I. ricinus larvae and nymphs on bank voles was unimodal in 1991, with peaks in June-July and bimodal in 1992, with peaks in June and August. Male bank voles, compared to females and older voles, compared to young voles, harboured greater numbers of I. ricinus ticks. Apodemus mice, compared to bank voles, harboured greater numbers of I. ricinus ticks. Ixodes ricinus larvae engorged on Apodemus mice were heavier than larvae engorged on bank voles and resulted in larger nymphs. However, there was no difference in the proportions of viable nymphs resulting from larvae engorged on mice or voles. The ranges in the numbers of I. ricinus ticks infesting individual hosts were 1-451 for rodents, 16-2374 for hares and 428-2072 for roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). These ranges of tick numbers are estimated to represent potential blood losses from individual hosts of approximately 0.2-65% for rodents, 0.2-13% for hares and 0.3-9.0% for roe deer. Within the populations of all host species examined, the distributions of all stages of I. ricinus were clumped, with most host individuals harbouring few ticks and only a few individuals harbouring many ticks. The data suggest that, even though a small proportion of tick hosts may be severely affected, the direct effects of feeding by I. ricinus are unlikely to play an important role on mammal population dynamics.

  1. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  2. Spatio-temporal dynamics of tularemia in French wildlife: 2002-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moinet, Marie; Decors, Anouk; Mendy, Christiane; Faure, Eva; Durand, Benoit; Madani, Nora

    2016-08-01

    Tularemia, caused by Francisella tularensis, is endemic in France. The surveillance of this disease in wildlife is operated by the SAGIR Network and by the National Reference Laboratory for Tularemia. Wild animals found dead or dying collected by the SAGIR network are necropsied and when tularemia is suspected culture and/or PCR are performed to confirm the diagnosis. The aim of this study was to present the results of tularemia surveillance in wildlife and to investigate the spatial and temporal pattern of tularemia observed between the 2002-2003 and 2012-2013 hunting seasons in French wildlife. Fourty-one to 121 cases were collected each hunting season for a total of 693 confirmed cases and 46 additional suspected cases. The main species affected was the European Brown Hare (Lepus europaeus) but 4 rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), 2 roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and one wild boar (Sus scrofa) were also found positive. The Standard Mortality Ratio was mapped and Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistic was implemented and allowed the detection of several clusters: the nationwide outbreak of 2007-2008; 2 clusters in northern and central-western France in high hare-abundance areas and another in North-eastern France where the abundance of hares is low. Our results confirm the usefulness of brown hare as a sentinel of environmental risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

    2017-03-01

    Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

  4. Collective dynamics of populations of weakly correlated filaments of incoherent white light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Jinxin; Sheridan, John T; Saravanamuttu, Kalaichelvi

    2013-01-01

    We examined the dynamics of two populations of self-trapped filaments of spatially and temporally incoherent white light. The populations consisted of (i) independent filaments generated through self-trapping of incandescent speckles, and (ii) co-dependent filaments created through modulation instability of a broad incandescent beam. Both filament populations were positionally stable in conditions where individual pairs of self-trapped beams interact strongly. Both also acquired significantly broad intensity distributions, which were independent of their parent optical fields; a small but persistent number of high-intensity filaments was identified in both cases. These studies provide accessible routes to weakly correlated ensembles, insight into their collective behaviour such as self-stabilization and self-selected intensity distributions, and reveal intriguing similarities between the dynamics of two populations of different origins. (paper)

  5. Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    August Turina

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.

  6. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  7. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  8. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-11-03

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  9. On the selection of ordinary differential equation models with application to predator-prey dynamical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

    2015-03-01

    We consider model selection and estimation in a context where there are competing ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, and all the models are special cases of a "full" model. We propose a computationally inexpensive approach that employs statistical estimation of the full model, followed by a combination of a least squares approximation (LSA) and the adaptive Lasso. We show the resulting method, here called the LSA method, to be an (asymptotically) oracle model selection method. The finite sample performance of the proposed LSA method is investigated with Monte Carlo simulations, in which we examine the percentage of selecting true ODE models, the efficiency of the parameter estimation compared to simply using the full and true models, and coverage probabilities of the estimated confidence intervals for ODE parameters, all of which have satisfactory performances. Our method is also demonstrated by selecting the best predator-prey ODE to model a lynx and hare population dynamical system among some well-known and biologically interpretable ODE models. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

  11. Seasonal population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii (Diplopoda, Julidae in the Dnieper river arena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. G. Gudym

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the

  12. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  13. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  14. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

    1995-01-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...

  15. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  16. Study of radiation dose from radioactive shipments to cargo handlers at O'Hare Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-06-01

    The relationship between the amount of radioactive materials that pass through the cargo areas at O'Hare Field, Chicago, and the resulting radiation dose to the workers handling the packages was determined. Measurements of radiation exposure rates at various distances from the radioactive packages were made. Handling or exposure times for personnel during several unit operations were measured with a watch. These data were used to determine the body dose from the unit operation. In randomly selected cases workers were assigned TLD dosimeters in the form of a ring to be worn on the hand or in the form of a clip to be attached to the clothing for measurement of the hand or body dose from a unit operation. During each survey, several workers were given TLDs that were worn for the duration of the shift, and some workers, in addition, were given dosimeters to be worn for the duration of the study. Results showed that the workers who handled the radioactive packages did not receive any significant radiation exposure. (U.S.)

  17. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  18. Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

    2018-09-01

    A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  20. Factors affecting population dynamics of maternally transmitted endosymbionts in Bemisia tabaci.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huipeng Pan

    Full Text Available While every individual of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae harbors the primary symbiont (P-symbiont Portiera, the infection frequencies of the six secondary symbionts (S-symbionts including Hamiltonella, Arsenophonus, Cardinium, Wolbachia, Rickettsia and Fritschea vary greatly among different populations. To characterize the factors influencing the infection dynamics of the six S-symbionts in B. tabaci, gene-specific PCR were conducted to screen for the presence of the P-symbiont Portiera and the six S-symbionts in 61 (17 B and 44 Q biotypes field populations collected from different plant species and locations in China. All individuals of the 61 populations hosted the P-symbiont Portiera, but none of them harbored Arsenophonus and Fritschea. The presence and infection rates of Hamiltonella, Cardinium, Rickettsia, Wolbachia and their co-infections Rickettsia + Hamiltonella (RH, Rickettsia + Cardinium (RC, Hamiltonella + Cardinium (HC and Rickettsia + Hamiltonella + Cardinium (RHC varied significantly among the 61 field populations; and the observed variations can be explained by biotypes, sexes, host plants and geographical locations of these field populations. Taken together, at least three factors including biotype, host plant and geographical location affect the infection dynamics of S-symbionts in B. tabaci.

  1. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  2. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

    Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...

  3. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

    1995-06-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

  4. seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

  5. Population Dynamics of Biota on the Roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NITA ETIKAWATI

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Azolla was a special fern that their associations with Anabaena azollae able to fix free nitrogen from air, to produce protein. Although by the ages, biota diversity those habits on the roots of Azolla increased and effected to protein concentration. The research was to find out population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss and the growth peak. This study used Completely Randomized Design with 10 kinds of biota, i.e. bacteria, Fungi, Actinomycetes, Protozoa, Alga, Crustacean, Rotifers, Coelenterate, Insect and Molluscs, and it was used 3 replications. Research was conducted within 4 weeks and the populations of biota were observed every week. Data were statistically analyzed using Analysis Variant and Duncan’s Multiple Range Test. The population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss were influenced on its quantity and composition, and the growth peak is done in 2nd week.

  6. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  7. Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan

    2009-10-01

    The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.

  8. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  9. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

    2002-01-01

    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  10. Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

    1978-01-01

    A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

  11. Isolation and purification of a novel anticancer 60 K daltons protein from the Persian Gulf sea hare, Aplysia Dactylomela

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keyvan Zandi

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea hares have attracted the interest of many workers investigating chemical defense substances. Most of these substances are low molecular weight compounds derived from algal diets. Anticancer effects of a novel protein isolated from purple fluid of A. dactylomela are reported. The purification procedure consisted basically of ammonium sulphate fractionation, ion exchange and ultrafiltration techniques. For cytotoxicity effects, L929, K562, HL60 and NB4 cell lines and MTT assay were used. A protein of 60000 Da of the purple fluid of A. dactylomela had antiproliferative effects on the cell lines it was maximally active at 0.5-1.5 microgram/ml on NB4 cell line. Therefore, the purple fluid of A. dactylomela has a novel antiproliferative agent.

  12. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ONOS

    2010-01-25

    Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.

  13. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.

  14. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  15. Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

  16. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  17. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  18. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  19. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  20. A strain-specific multiplex RT-PCR for Australian rabbit haemorrhagic disease viruses uncovers a new recombinant virus variant in rabbits and hares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, R N; Mahar, J E; Read, A J; Mourant, R; Piper, M; Huang, N; Strive, T

    2018-04-01

    Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV, or GI.1) is a calicivirus in the genus Lagovirus that has been widely utilized in Australia as a biological control agent for the management of overabundant wild European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations since 1996. Recently, two exotic incursions of pathogenic lagoviruses have been reported in Australia; GI.1a-Aus, previously called RHDVa-Aus, is a GI.1a virus detected in January 2014, and the novel lagovirus GI.2 (previously known as RHDV2). Furthermore, an additional GI.1a strain, GI.1a-K5 (also known as 08Q712), was released nationwide in March 2017 as a supplementary tool for wild rabbit management. To discriminate between these lagoviruses, a highly sensitive strain-specific multiplex RT-PCR assay was developed, which allows fast, cost-effective and sensitive detection of the four pathogenic lagoviruses currently known to be circulating in Australia. In addition, we developed a universal RT-qPCR assay to be used in conjunction with the multiplex assay that broadly detects all four viruses and facilitates quantification of viral RNA load in samples. These assays enable rapid detection, identification and quantification of pathogenic lagoviruses in the Australian context. Using these assays, a novel recombinant lagovirus was detected in rabbit tissue samples, which contained the non-structural genes of GI.1a-Aus and the structural genes of GI.2. This variant was also recovered from the liver of a European brown hare (Lepus europaeus). The impact of this novel recombinant on Australian wild lagomorph populations and its competitiveness in relation to circulating field strains, particularly GI.2, requires further studies. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

  2. Efficacies of prevention and control measures applied during an outbreak in Southwest Madrid, Spain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anaiá da Paixão Sevá

    Full Text Available Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease of worldwide distribution, currently present in 98 countries. Since late 2010, an unusual increase of human visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis cases has been observed in the south-western Madrid region, totaling more than 600 cases until 2015. Some hosts, such as human, domestic dog and cat, rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus, and hare (Lepus granatensis, were found infected by the parasite of this disease in the area. Hares were described as the most important reservoir due to their higher prevalence, capacity to infect the vector, and presence of the same strains as in humans. Various measures were adopted to prevent and control the disease, and since 2013 there was a slight decline in the human sickness. We used a mathematical model to evaluate the efficacy of each measure in reducing the number of infected hosts. We identified in the present model that culling both hares and rabbits, without immediate reposition of the animals, was the best measure adopted, decreasing the proportion of all infected hosts. Particularly, culling hares was more efficacious than culling rabbits to reduce the proportion of infected individuals of all hosts. Likewise, lowering vector contact with hares highly influenced the reduction of the proportion of infected hosts. The reduction of the vector density per host in the park decreased the leishmaniasis incidence of hosts in the park and the urban areas. On the other hand, the reduction of the vector density per host of the urban area (humans, dogs and cats decreased only their affected population, albeit at a higher proportion. The use of insecticide-impregnated collar and vaccination in dogs affected only the infected dogs' population. The parameters related to the vector contact with dog, cat or human do not present a high impact on the other hosts infected by Leishmania. In conclusion, the efficacy of each control strategy was determined, in order to direct future actions

  3. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  4. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zhao

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911. Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  5. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  6. Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

  7. Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Komarov

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.

  8. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  9. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  10. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-01-01

    This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade ar...

  11. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  12. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  13. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  14. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx

    2008-11-21

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  15. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanov, Serguei

    2008-01-01

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  16. Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Radonjić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.

  17. Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study

  18. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A

    2014-12-01

    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

  19. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

    2000-01-01

    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  20. Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

    2013-05-01

    An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

  1. About a dynamic model of interaction of insect population with food plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Nedorezov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In present paper there is the consideration of mathematical model of food plant (resource - consumer (insect population - pathogen system dynamics which is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The dynamic regimes of model are analyzed and, in particular, with the help of numerical methods it is shown that trigger regimes (regimes with two stable attractors can be realized in model under very simple assumptions about ecological and intra-population processes functioning. Within the framework of model it was assumed that the rate of food flow into the system is constant and functioning of intra-population selfregulative mechanisms can be described by Verhulst model. As it was found, trigger regimes are different with respect to their properties: in particular, in model the trigger regimes with one of stable stationary points on the coordinate plane can be realized (it corresponds to the situation when sick individuals in population are absent and their appearance in small volume leads to their asymptotic elimination; also the regimes with several nonzero stationary states and stable periodic fluctuations were found.

  2. CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L.; Alatalo, Katherine; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Crocker, Alison F.; Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom; Naab, Thorsten

    2014-01-01

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS 3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α dyn ≡ (M/L) stars /(M/L) Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α dyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α dyn -[α/Fe] and α dyn –Age correlations and no significant α dyn –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis

  3. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    2014-09-01

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

  4. Phenotypic equilibrium as probabilistic convergence in multi-phenotype cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Quan Jiang

    Full Text Available We consider the cell population dynamics with n different phenotypes. Both the Markovian branching process model (stochastic model and the ordinary differential equation (ODE system model (deterministic model are presented, and exploited to investigate the dynamics of the phenotypic proportions. We will prove that in both models, these proportions will tend to constants regardless of initial population states ("phenotypic equilibrium" under weak conditions, which explains the experimental phenomenon in Gupta et al.'s paper. We also prove that Gupta et al.'s explanation is the ODE model under a special assumption. As an application, we will give sufficient and necessary conditions under which the proportion of one phenotype tends to 0 (die out or 1 (dominate. We also extend our results to non-Markovian cases.

  5. Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

    2006-01-01

    Populations of greater scaup (Aythya marila) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup (A. affinis) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival.

  6. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  7. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  8. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  9. Emergence of cooperation in phenotypically heterogeneous populations: a replicator dynamics analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreira da Silva Rocha, A; Escobedo, R; Laruelle, A

    2015-01-01

    The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where two kinds of individuals exist according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type. Individuals thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by the snowdrift game, where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game theory by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that the four monomorphic states are unstable and that a polymorphic state exists which is a global attractor for non-degenerate initial states of the population. The result for the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. (paper)

  10. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  11. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  12. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  13. Population dynamics of three songbird species in a nestbox population in Central Europe show effects of density, climate and competitive interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; van der Meer, J.; Fiedler, W.

    2011-01-01

    Unravelling the contributions of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining species population dynamics is a challenge, especially if the two factors interact. One approach is to apply stochastic population models to long-term data, yet few studies have included interactions

  14. Studies on population dynamic of diamondback moth in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malakrong, A.; Limohpasmanee, W.; Keawchoung, P.; Kodcharint, P.

    1994-01-01

    The population dynamic of diamondback moth larva in the field was studied at Khao Khor High-land Agricultural Research Station during August-October 1993 and February-April 1994. The distribution patterns of diamondback moth larva was clumped when population was low and would change to be random when population was high. The maximun and minimum number of diamondback moth in the field were 71,203 and 2,732 larva/rai during March and September. Temperature, rainfall and age of cabbage were slightly relative with number of larva (r=-0.2891, p=0.30; r=-0.2816, p=0.31 and r=0.2931, p=0.29 respectively) but relative humidity has no effect on number of larva

  15. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...

  16. Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harun Uçak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Literally, it has been accepted that one of the major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership is in population term. There has not been any enlargement process as large as Turkey’s population as a single state in EU history before. The enlargement in 2004 which includes 10 states involved 74 million people as whole member states while Turkey’s population is 72 million inhabitants in 2007 data which is only lower than Germany’s population in all EU member states. Thus, Turkey's accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of high population. This study compares the population dynamics, working conditions, minimum wage rates and main macroeconomic indicators between Turkey and EU member states. Turkey has young generations compared to EU countries. In the comparison of age groups proportion in total population, 0-19 age group %21,9 in EU 27 and %36,5 in Turkey, 20-39 age group is %28 in EU 27 and %34,3 in Turkey, 40-59 age group is %27,9 in EU and %20,9 in Turkey, 60 and above age group is %22,1 in EU and %9,5 in Turkey. Thus, population dynamics of Turkey could make a contribution to offsetting the ageing of EU 27 societies if the membership would occur in the future. However, minimum wage rates in Turkey are lower than many EU member states but generally higher than EU member states located in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, immigration possibilities from Turkey can be expected to Western European Countries, but not the same direction to Central and Eastern Europe Countries. Furthermore, the process in macroeconomic indicators will be a determinant in immigration expectations while Turkey’s GDP has been grown faster than EU level recently.

  17. Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.

    2017-12-01

    Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and

  18. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  19. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  20. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

  1. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  2. Population dynamics of Trichuris suis in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Thamsborg, S M; Petersen, H H; Kringel, H; Fredholm, M; Roepstorff, A

    2009-05-01

    The population dynamics of Trichuris suis in pigs was studied during long-term experimental infections. Twenty-three 10-week-old pigs were inoculated with 5 T. suis eggs/kg/day. Seven, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 post-start of infection (p.i.), respectively. The median numbers of worms in the colon were 538 (min-max: 277-618), 332 (14-1140) and 0 (0-4) at 4, 8, and 14 weeks p.i. respectively, suggesting an increased aggregation of the worms with time and acquisition of nearly sterile immunity. The serum levels of T. suis specific antibodies (IgG1, IgG2 and IgA) peaked at week 8 p.i. By week 14 p.i. the IgG2 and IgA antibody levels remained significantly elevated above the level of week 0. The population dynamics of T. suis trickle infections in pigs is discussed with focus on interpretation of diagnostic and epidemiological data of pigs, the use of pigs as a model for human Trichuris trichiura infections and the novel approach of using T. suis eggs in the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

  3. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe-Strogatz integrability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  4. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-01-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations. (letter)

  5. Population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii in cloud forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana

    2016-02-01

    Epiphytes are a major component of tropical montane cloud forests. Over-exploitation and forest loss and degradation affect remnant populations. In this study, we analysed the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii over a 2-y period in a tropical montane cloud forest fragment in southern Mexico. Matrix analysis revealed that the T. butzii population is likely to be stable at the study site. On average the λ value did not differ significantly from unity: λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.978 (0.936-1.001). λ was highly influenced by stasis, to a lesser extent by growth and only slightly by fecundity. Overall, adult plant stasis and phalanx growth habit played a fundamental role in population maintenance. T. butzii tolerance to xeric conditions may contribute to population stability in the studied region.

  6. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  7. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  8. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  9. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  10. Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

  11. Game statistics for the Island of Olkiluoto in 2011-2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niemi, M.; Nieminen, M. [Faunatica Oy, Espoo (Finland); Jussila, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland)

    2012-11-15

    The game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto were updated in the summer 2012 and compared with earlier statistics. Population size estimates are based on interviews of the local hunters. No moose or deer inventories were made in the winter 2011-2012. The moose population has been decreasing slightly during the past ten years. The increasing lynx population has decreasing effect on small ungulate (white-tailed deer and roe deer) populations. The number of hunted mountain hares and European brown hares decreased when comparing the previous year. In addition, the number of hunted raccoon dogs was about 50 per cent lower than in the year 2010. Altogether 27 waterfowls were hunted in 2011. The population of mountain hare is abundant, despite that there were lynx living on the eastern part of island during the winter 2011. Based on track observations, there are pine martens living on the area as well. In addition, there were some observations of wolves visiting on the area. The winter 2011-2012 was milder than the previous one, and it seemed that young swans wintering on the area survived better that in the previous winter. (orig.)

  12. Game statistics for the Island of Olkiluoto in 2011-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemi, M.; Nieminen, M.; Jussila, I.

    2012-11-01

    The game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto were updated in the summer 2012 and compared with earlier statistics. Population size estimates are based on interviews of the local hunters. No moose or deer inventories were made in the winter 2011-2012. The moose population has been decreasing slightly during the past ten years. The increasing lynx population has decreasing effect on small ungulate (white-tailed deer and roe deer) populations. The number of hunted mountain hares and European brown hares decreased when comparing the previous year. In addition, the number of hunted raccoon dogs was about 50 per cent lower than in the year 2010. Altogether 27 waterfowls were hunted in 2011. The population of mountain hare is abundant, despite that there were lynx living on the eastern part of island during the winter 2011. Based on track observations, there are pine martens living on the area as well. In addition, there were some observations of wolves visiting on the area. The winter 2011-2012 was milder than the previous one, and it seemed that young swans wintering on the area survived better that in the previous winter. (orig.)

  13. Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

    2017-04-27

    This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

  14. Inventário de Psicopatia de Hare Versão Jovens (PCL:YV: Estudo Preliminar em Amostra Adolescente Brasileira

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramiro Ronchetti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the preliminary study of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV reliability developed with 20 male Brazilian adolescents offenders. They had between 16 and 17 years old medium age and were confined in a facility in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre, the southernmost state capital in the country. A questionnaire with social and demographic data and a semi-structured interview were filled out. Collateral information was also obtained with the monitors of the facility where the research was performed. The results showed a high index of inter-evaluator reliability (W=0.93; p <0.001 in this sample. These findings suggest the continuation of the studies in order of generalizing the findings as well as to give continuity to the process of instrument validation in the Brazilian context.

  15. Application of homotopy-perturbation method to nonlinear population dynamics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, M.S.H.; Hashim, I.; Abdulaziz, O.

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, the homotopy-perturbation method (HPM) is employed to derive approximate series solutions of nonlinear population dynamics models. The nonlinear models considered are the multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations. The accuracy of this method is examined by comparison with the available exact and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4)

  16. CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDermid, Richard M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109 (Australia); Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L. [Sub-Department of Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford, OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Alatalo, Katherine [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Blitz, Leo [Department of Astronomy, Campbell Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bois, Maxime [Observatoire de Paris, LERMA and CNRS, 61 Av. de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France); Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU/SAp- CNRS-Université Paris Diderot, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crocker, Alison F. [Ritter Astrophysical Observatory, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Khochfar, Sadegh [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Krajnović, Davor [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, D-14482 Potsdam (Germany); Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom [Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), Postbus 2, 7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Naab, Thorsten, E-mail: richard.mcdermid@mq.edu.au [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany); and others

    2014-09-10

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS{sup 3D} project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α{sub dyn} ≡ (M/L){sub stars}/(M/L){sub Salp} and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α{sub dyn} at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α{sub dyn}-[α/Fe] and α{sub dyn} –Age correlations and no significant α{sub dyn} –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

  17. Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean

    2010-09-01

    Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.

  18. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  19. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  20. Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly...

  1. Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

    2017-05-07

    Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. General two-species interacting Lotka-Volterra system: Population dynamics and wave propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Haoqi; Wang, Mao-Xiang; Lai, Pik-Yin

    2018-05-01

    The population dynamics of two interacting species modeled by the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model with general parameters that can promote or suppress the other species is studied. It is found that the properties of the two species' isoclines determine the interaction of species, leading to six regimes in the phase diagram of interspecies interaction; i.e., there are six different interspecific relationships described by the LV model. Four regimes allow for nontrivial species coexistence, among which it is found that three of them are stable, namely, weak competition, mutualism, and predator-prey scenarios can lead to win-win coexistence situations. The Lyapunov function for general nontrivial two-species coexistence is also constructed. Furthermore, in the presence of spatial diffusion of the species, the dynamics can lead to steady wavefront propagation and can alter the population map. Propagating wavefront solutions in one dimension are investigated analytically and by numerical solutions. The steady wavefront speeds are obtained analytically via nonlinear dynamics analysis and verified by numerical solutions. In addition to the inter- and intraspecific interaction parameters, the intrinsic speed parameters of each species play a decisive role in species populations and wave properties. In some regimes, both species can copropagate with the same wave speeds in a finite range of parameters. Our results are further discussed in the light of possible biological relevance and ecological implications.

  3. Population and phase dynamics of F=1 spinor condensates in an external magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, D.R.; Passos, E.J.V. de

    2004-01-01

    We show that the classical dynamics underlying the mean-field description of homogeneous mixtures of spinor F=1 Bose-Einstein condensates in an external magnetic field is integrable as a consequence of number conservation and axial symmetry in spin space. The population dynamics depends only on the quadratic term of the Zeeman energy and on the strength of the spin-dependent term of the atom-atom interaction. We determine the equilibrium populations as function of the ratio of these two quantities and the miscibility of the hyperfine components in the ground state spinors are thoroughly discussed. Outside the equilibrium, the populations are always a periodic function of time where the periodic motion can be a libration or a rotation. Our studies also indicate the absence of metastability

  4. Dynamics of weed populations : spatial pattern formation and implications for control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wallinga, J.

    1998-01-01

    Modelling studies were carried out to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of annual weed populations and to identify the key factors that determine the long-term herbicide use of weed control programmes. Three different weed control programmes were studied.

    In the first weed

  5. Spatial variation in population dynamics of Sitka mice in floodplain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.A. Hanley; J.C. Barnard

    1999-01-01

    Population dynamics and demography of the Sitka mouse, Peromyscus keeni sitkensis, were studied by mark-recapture live-trapping over a 4-year period in four floodplain and upland forest habitats: old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) floodplain; red alder (Alnus rubra) floodplain; beaver-pond...

  6. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2010-05-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  7. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  8. Population dynamics of graphene driven by a few-cycle laser pulse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Chunling; Yu, Rong; Hao, Xiangying; Zhang, Duo; Zu, Fengxia

    2017-06-01

    We study the time evolution of the populations in a two-dimensional (2D) graphene system by employing a few-cycle laser pulse with a linear polarization. Specifically, we present a comparative numerical analysis of the population dynamics of graphene in three different model configurations. Our results show that the Rabi-like oscillations and intraband population inversion can be observed in the population spectrum, which originated from the periodicity of a few-cycle laser pulse and the intraband Coulomb scattering. Also, coherent population oscillations are produced across the Dirac point when the Rabi frequency of the laser field which is used to couple the interband transition is much larger than that couples the intraband transition, and vice versa. These investigations may be helpful to enhance the performance of graphene-based ultrafast electronic and optoelectronic devices, including light-emitting devices, touch screens, photodetectors, and ultrafast lasers.

  9. Population dynamics, life-history traits of and habitat use by two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and life-history traits of two sympatric nothobranchiid killifishes, Epiplatys bifasciatus and E. spilargyreius, were studied for 24 months in an intermittent stream in the Kainji Lake Basin, Nigeria. Epiplatys bifasciatus was more abundant throughout the study period, but monthly abundance of both species ...

  10. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  11. The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

    Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

  12. Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Calvert

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

  13. Extinction transition in stochastic population dynamics in a random, convective environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juhász, Róbert

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by modeling the dynamics of a population living in a flowing medium where the environmental factors are random in space, we have studied an asymmetric variant of the one-dimensional contact process, where the quenched random reproduction rates are systematically greater in one direction than in the opposite one. The spatial disorder turns out to be a relevant perturbation but, according to results of Monte Carlo simulations, the behavior of the model at the extinction transition is different from the (infinite-randomness) critical behavior of the disordered symmetric contact process. Depending on the strength a of the asymmetry, the critical population drifts either with a finite velocity or with an asymptotically vanishing velocity as x(t) ∼ t μ(a) , where μ(a) < 1. Dynamical quantities are non-self-averaging at the extinction transition; the survival probability, for instance, shows multiscaling, i.e. it is characterized by a broad spectrum of effective exponents. For a sufficiently weak asymmetry, a Griffiths phase appears below the extinction transition, where the survival probability decays as a non-universal power of the time while, above the transition, another extended phase emerges, where the front of the population advances anomalously with a diffusion exponent continuously varying with the control parameter. (paper)

  14. Adaptation dynamics of laboratory populations of Drosophila Melanogaster to low dose chronic ionizing irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zajnullin, V.G.; Yushkova, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    In genetically non-uniform populations D. melanogaster in conditions of a chronic irradiation in a doze 10-11 about sGy/generation dynamics parameters of populations was investigated. It is established, that number of individuals in irradiated populations is lower, than in control. It is revealed, that viability of populations undergone to a chronic irradiation depends on their genotype. The gradual increase in fruitfulness, viability of individuals and decrease in a level of lethal mutations in a number of generations after of an irradiation in low doses is caused by adaptable opportunities of populations. (authors)

  15. Dynamics of genetic processes in chronically irradiated populations of small mammals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryabokon', N.I.; Goncharova, R.I.; Smolich, I.I.; Kapitanova, N.P.; Nikitchenko, N.V.

    2000-01-01

    The distinctive features of dynamics of mutagenesis in mammalian populations under chronic low-intensive irradiation were first revealed. The main of them is gradual increase in mutability in somatic cells and embryonal lethality during series of irradiated generations of animals (bank vole - Clethrionomys glareolus). The data obtained strongly suggest that there are oppositely directed processes in natural populations after irradiation of more than 20 generations of animals: on the one hand, accumulation of mutations (genetic load of populations) and pre-mutation events which increase genome instability of germ and somatic cells in consecutive generations of animals, and on the other, formation of genetic radio adaptation through better functioning protection systems. In this period of micro evolution in chronically irradiated populations, the frequencies of genetic damages could be higher if the radiation adaptation doesn't form. (authors)

  16. Molecular and phylogenetic analysis of the filarial nematode Micipsella numidica from the hare Lepus europaeus in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrielli, S; Galuppi, R; Fraulo, M; Savini, F; Morandi, B; Cancrini, G; Poglayen, G

    2016-07-01

    The genus Micipsella comprises three species of filariae to date identified in lagomorphs only, whereas the other genera belonging to the subfamily Splendidofilariinae are described as parasites of birds, reptiles and mammals. In the present study seven specimens of Micipsella numidica (Seurat, 1917), collected from the hare Lepus europaeus in Italy, were characterized genetically by molecular amplification of the mitochondrial genes (12S rDNA; cox1) and the 5S rDNA gene spacer region. Phylogenetic trees inferred using available sequences from filariae and those identified in this study evidenced a close relationship between M. numidica and Splendidofilariinae of other mammals and reptiles (Rumenfilaria andersoni and Madathamugadia hiepei). The present findings, apart from adding new data about the hosts in Italy, support the taxonomic position of M. numidica and highlight the substantial biological and molecular differences existing between Splendidofilariinae and other Onchocercidae. The study also contributes to our knowledge of the molecular/genetic diagnosis of filarial parasites of veterinary and medical concern in any vertebrate or invertebrate host.

  17. Dynamic population artificial bee colony algorithm for multi-objective optimal power flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Ding

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic population (ABC-DP, which synergizes the idea of extended life-cycle evolving model to balance the exploration and exploitation tradeoff. The proposed ABC-DP is a more bee-colony-realistic model that the bee can reproduce and die dynamically throughout the foraging process and population size varies as the algorithm runs. ABC-DP is then used for solving the optimal power flow (OPF problem in power systems that considers the cost, loss, and emission impacts as the objective functions. The 30-bus IEEE test system is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed algorithm. The simulation results, which are also compared to nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII and multi-objective ABC (MOABC, are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

  18. Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains with dispersal delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eide, Ragna M; Krause, Andrew L; Fadai, Nabil T; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2018-08-14

    We examine the role of the travel time of a predator along a spatial network on predator-prey population interactions, where the predator is able to partially or fully sustain itself on a resource subsidy. The impact of access to food resources on the stability and behaviour of the predator-prey-subsidy system is investigated, with a primary focus on how incorporating travel time changes the dynamics. The population interactions are modelled by a system of delay differential equations, where travel time is incorporated as discrete delay in the network diffusion term in order to model time taken to migrate between spatial regions. The model is motivated by the Arctic ecosystem, where the Arctic fox consumes both hunted lemming and scavenged seal carcass. The fox travels out on sea ice, in addition to quadrennially migrating over substantial distances. We model the spatial predator-prey-subsidy dynamics through a "stepping-stone" approach. We find that a temporal delay alone does not push species into extinction, but rather may stabilize or destabilize coexistence equilibria. We are able to show that delay can stabilize quasi-periodic or chaotic dynamics, and conclude that the incorporation of dispersal delay has a regularizing effect on dynamics, suggesting that dispersal delay can be proposed as a solution to the paradox of enrichment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyan Feng

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs, three nuclear genes (nDNAs and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs, we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida.

  20. Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUWARNO

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.

  1. Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

    2011-01-01

    Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

  2. Game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto in 2009-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieminen, M. (Faunatica Oy, Espoo (Finland))

    2010-10-15

    The game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto were updated in the spring 2010, and compared with earlier studies. Population size estimates are based on interviews of local hunters, and on other material available. No elk nor deer inventories were made in the winter 2009-2010. The elk population is still slightly decreasing. The white-tailed deer population was made smaller by hunting. The changes in the roe deer population are not known accurately, but population size varies somewhat from year to year. The number of hunted small predators approximately doubled in the latest hunting season. Altogether 17 waterfowl were hunted in 2009 (none in the previous year). The populations of mountain hare and red squirrel are abundant. The brown hare population is still small, even though there was one brood in Olkiluoto in 2009. (orig.)

  3. Game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto in 2009-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieminen, M.

    2010-10-01

    The game statistics for the island of Olkiluoto were updated in the spring 2010, and compared with earlier studies. Population size estimates are based on interviews of local hunters, and on other material available. No elk nor deer inventories were made in the winter 2009-2010. The elk population is still slightly decreasing. The white-tailed deer population was made smaller by hunting. The changes in the roe deer population are not known accurately, but population size varies somewhat from year to year. The number of hunted small predators approximately doubled in the latest hunting season. Altogether 17 waterfowl were hunted in 2009 (none in the previous year). The populations of mountain hare and red squirrel are abundant. The brown hare population is still small, even though there was one brood in Olkiluoto in 2009. (orig.)

  4. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

  5. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

  6. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  7. The dynamics of diverse segmental amplifications in populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae adapting to strong selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C; Ong, Giang T; Pogachar, Jamie L; Sanchez, Joseph C; Sunshine, Anna B; Raghuraman, M K; Brewer, Bonita J; Dunham, Maitreya J

    2014-03-20

    Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another.

  8. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  9. Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

  10. Experimental evolution and the dynamics of adaptation and genome evolution in microbial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenski, Richard E

    2017-10-01

    Evolution is an on-going process, and it can be studied experimentally in organisms with rapid generations. My team has maintained 12 populations of Escherichia coli in a simple laboratory environment for >25 years and 60 000 generations. We have quantified the dynamics of adaptation by natural selection, seen some of the populations diverge into stably coexisting ecotypes, described changes in the bacteria's mutation rate, observed the new ability to exploit a previously untapped carbon source, characterized the dynamics of genome evolution and used parallel evolution to identify the genetic targets of selection. I discuss what the future might hold for this particular experiment, briefly highlight some other microbial evolution experiments and suggest how the fields of experimental evolution and microbial ecology might intersect going forward.

  11. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  12. Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Restrepo, Juan M [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Rael, Rosalyn C [UNIV OF ARIZONA

    2009-01-01

    We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.

  13. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  14. Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doslic, N.

    2006-01-01

    We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

  15. Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

    Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

  16. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Dynamic Properties of the Solow Model with Increasing or Decreasing Population and Time-to-Build Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Guerrini

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a time-to-build technology in a Solow model with nonconstant population. Our analysis shows that the population dynamics may be a source of stability switches and Hopf bifurcations. The analytical results are obtained using the recent technique introduced by Beretta and Kuang (2002 in the studying of delayed differential equations with delay-dependent coefficients in characteristic equation. Numerical simulations are performed in order to illustrate the main dynamic features of the model.

  18. Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

  19. Cell mass and cell cycle dynamics of an asynchronous budding yeast population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita; Carlquist, Magnus; Lundin, Luisa

    2013-01-01

    of model predictions for cell property distributions against experimental data is scarce. This study focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of the dynamics of cell size and cell cycle position distributions, of a population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, in response to the substrate...

  20. Dynamics of a local badger (Meles meles) population in the Netherlands over the years 1983-2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apeldoorn, van R.C.; Vink, J.; Matyástík, T.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term data on badger population dynamics are scarce. For 19 years data on badger and sett numbers were collected by direct observation of a Local population in the province of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Analysis of these data show two different patterns of population growth. The first shows a

  1. Phenotypic plasticity despite source-sink population dynamics in a long-lived perennial plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Jill T; Sparks, Jed P; Geber, Monica A

    2010-11-01

    • Species that exhibit adaptive plasticity alter their phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, thereby maximizing fitness in heterogeneous landscapes. However, under demographic source-sink dynamics, selection should favor traits that enhance fitness in the source habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal habitat. Consistent with source-sink dynamics, the perennial blueberry, Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae), shows substantially higher fitness and population sizes in dry upland forests than in flood-prone bottomland forests, and asymmetrical gene flow occurs from upland populations into bottomland populations. Here, we examined whether this species expresses plasticity to these distinct environments despite source-sink dynamics. • We assessed phenotypic responses to a complex environmental gradient in the field and to water stress in the glasshouse. • Contrary to expectations, V. elliottii exhibited a high degree of plasticity in foliar and root traits (specific leaf area, carbon isotope ratios, foliar nitrogen content, root : shoot ratio, root porosity and root architecture). • We propose that plasticity can be maintained in source-sink systems if it is favored within the source habitat and/or a phylogenetic artifact that is not costly. Additionally, plasticity could be advantageous if habitat-based differences in fitness result from incipient niche expansion. Our results illuminate the importance of evaluating phenotypic traits and fitness components across heterogeneous landscapes. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).

  2. Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation

  3. Cellular population dynamics control the robustness of the stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam L. MacLean

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Within populations of cells, fate decisions are controlled by an indeterminate combination of cell-intrinsic and cell-extrinsic factors. In the case of stem cells, the stem cell niche is believed to maintain ‘stemness’ through communication and interactions between the stem cells and one or more other cell-types that contribute to the niche conditions. To investigate the robustness of cell fate decisions in the stem cell hierarchy and the role that the niche plays, we introduce simple mathematical models of stem and progenitor cells, their progeny and their interplay in the niche. These models capture the fundamental processes of proliferation and differentiation and allow us to consider alternative possibilities regarding how niche-mediated signalling feedback regulates the niche dynamics. Generalised stability analysis of these stem cell niche systems enables us to describe the stability properties of each model. We find that although the number of feasible states depends on the model, their probabilities of stability in general do not: stem cell–niche models are stable across a wide range of parameters. We demonstrate that niche-mediated feedback increases the number of stable steady states, and show how distinct cell states have distinct branching characteristics. The ecological feedback and interactions mediated by the stem cell niche thus lend (surprisingly high levels of robustness to the stem and progenitor cell population dynamics. Furthermore, cell–cell interactions are sufficient for populations of stem cells and their progeny to achieve stability and maintain homeostasis. We show that the robustness of the niche – and hence of the stem cell pool in the niche – depends only weakly, if at all, on the complexity of the niche make-up: simple as well as complicated niche systems are capable of supporting robust and stable stem cell dynamics.

  4. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir [Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, E-50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Traulsen, Arne [Emmy-Noether Group for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Strasse 2, 24306 Ploen (Germany)], E-mail: traulsen@evolbio.mpg.de

    2009-08-15

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  5. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne

    2009-01-01

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  6. Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

    2015-12-01

    Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net

  7. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

  8. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koons, David; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semi-arid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, we...... than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > 3 times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early...... spring temperature could have a greater ‘relative effect’ on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife...

  9. Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Bijan

    2016-01-01

    Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

  11. Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007–2011

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed H. Al-Thani; Eman Sadoun; Al-Anoud Al-Thani; Shamseldin A. Khalifa; Suzan Sayegh; Alaa Badawi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics...

  12. The interplay between human population dynamics and flooding in Bangladesh: a spatial analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Baldassarre, G.; Yan, K.; Ferdous, MD. R.; Brandimarte, L.

    2014-09-01

    In Bangladesh, socio-economic and hydrological processes are both extremely dynamic and inter-related. Human population patterns are often explained as a response, or adaptation strategy, to physical events, e.g. flooding, salt-water intrusion, and erosion. Meanwhile, these physical processes are exacerbated, or mitigated, by diverse human interventions, e.g. river diversion, levees and polders. In this context, this paper describes an attempt to explore the complex interplay between floods and societies in Bangladeshi floodplains. In particular, we performed a spatially-distributed analysis of the interactions between the dynamics of human settlements and flood inundation patterns. To this end, we used flooding simulation results from inundation modelling, LISFLOOD-FP, as well as global datasets of population distribution data, such as the Gridded Population of the World (20 years, from 1990 to 2010) and HYDE datasets (310 years, from 1700 to 2010). The outcomes of this work highlight the behaviour of Bangladeshi floodplains as complex human-water systems and indicate the need to go beyond the traditional narratives based on one-way cause-effects, e.g. climate change leading to migrations.

  13. Death and population dynamics affect mutation rate estimates and evolvability under stress in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenoy, Antoine; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2018-05-01

    The stress-induced mutagenesis hypothesis postulates that in response to stress, bacteria increase their genome-wide mutation rate, in turn increasing the chances that a descendant is able to better withstand the stress. This has implications for antibiotic treatment: exposure to subinhibitory doses of antibiotics has been reported to increase bacterial mutation rates and thus probably the rate at which resistance mutations appear and lead to treatment failure. More generally, the hypothesis posits that stress increases evolvability (the ability of a population to generate adaptive genetic diversity) and thus accelerates evolution. Measuring mutation rates under stress, however, is problematic, because existing methods assume there is no death. Yet subinhibitory stress levels may induce a substantial death rate. Death events need to be compensated by extra replication to reach a given population size, thus providing more opportunities to acquire mutations. We show that ignoring death leads to a systematic overestimation of mutation rates under stress. We developed a system based on plasmid segregation that allows us to measure death and division rates simultaneously in bacterial populations. Using this system, we found that a substantial death rate occurs at the tested subinhibitory concentrations previously reported to increase mutation rate. Taking this death rate into account lowers and sometimes removes the signal for stress-induced mutagenesis. Moreover, even when antibiotics increase mutation rate, we show that subinhibitory treatments do not increase genetic diversity and evolvability, again because of effects of the antibiotics on population dynamics. We conclude that antibiotic-induced mutagenesis is overestimated because of death and that understanding evolvability under stress requires accounting for the effects of stress on population dynamics as much as on mutation rate. Our goal here is dual: we show that population dynamics and, in particular, the

  14. Reproductive success is predicted by social dynamics and kinship in managed animal populations [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saul J. Newman

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Kin and group interactions are important determinants of reproductive success in many species. Their optimization could, therefore, potentially improve the productivity and breeding success of managed populations used for agricultural and conservation purposes. Here we demonstrate this potential using a novel approach to measure and predict the effect of kin and group dynamics on reproductive output in a well-known species, the meerkat Suricata suricatta. Variation in social dynamics predicts 30% of the individual variation in reproductive success of this species in managed populations, and accurately forecasts reproductive output at least two years into the future. Optimization of social dynamics in captive meerkat populations doubles their projected reproductive output. These results demonstrate the utility of a quantitative approach to breeding programs informed by social and kinship dynamics. They suggest that this approach has great potential for improvements in the management of social endangered and agricultural species.

  15. Nonlinear Absorption-Gain Response and Population Dynamics in a Laser-Driven Four-Level Dense Atomic System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiahua; Liu Jibing; Luo Jinming; Xie Xiaotao

    2006-01-01

    We theoretically investigate the response of nonlinear absorption and population dynamics in optically dense media of four-level atoms driven by a single-mode probe laser, via taking the density-dependent near dipole-dipole (NDD) interactions into consideration. The influence of the NDD effects on the absorption of the probe field and population dynamics is predicted via numerical calculations. It is shown that the NDD effects can reduce gradually to transient absorption with the increase of the strengths of the NDD interactions, and transient amplification can be achieved. In the steady-state limit, the probe field exhibits transparency for strong NDD interactions. Alternatively, the population entirely remains at the ground state due to the NDD effects.

  16. Dynamic Behaviour of a Population of Controlled-by-price Demand Side Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sossan, Fabrizio; Han, Xue; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2014-01-01

    It is described that controlling or shedding by price the power consumption of a population of thermostatic loads introduces in the aggregate consumption dynamic effects th at cannot be disregarded if electrical flexible demand is meant to supply power system services. It is shown that inducing...

  17. Analysis of Ant Colony Optimization and Population-Based Evolutionary Algorithms on Dynamic Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lissovoi, Andrei

    the dynamic optimum for finite alphabets up to size μ, while MMAS is able to do so for any finite alphabet size. Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms on Maze. We prove that while a (1 + λ) EA is unable to track the optimum of the dynamic fitness function Maze for offspring population size up to λ = O(n1-ε......This thesis presents new running time analyses of nature-inspired algorithms on various dynamic problems. It aims to identify and analyse the features of algorithms and problem classes which allow efficient optimization to occur in the presence of dynamic behaviour. We consider the following...... settings: λ-MMAS on Dynamic Shortest Path Problems. We investigate how in-creasing the number of ants simulated per iteration may help an ACO algorithm to track optimum in a dynamic problem. It is shown that while a constant number of ants per-vertex is sufficient to track some oscillations, there also...

  18. Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

    OpenAIRE

    Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

  19. Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil

    2017-11-01

    Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

  20. Climate Variability Reveals Complex Events for Tularemia Dynamics in Man and Mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas R. Palo

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Tularemia is caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, but the natural reservoir is unknown and environmental conditions for outbreaks in mammals and man are poorly understood. The present study analyzed the synchrony between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, the number of human cases of tularemia reported in Sweden, and the density of hares. Climate variation at a lag of 2 yr explained as a single factor ~ 27% of the variation in the number of tularemia cases over time. A low NAO index, indicating cold winters, and low water flow in rivers during the coming summer were associated with high numbers of human cases of tularemia 2 yr later. The number of mountain hares was not related to NAO or to the number of cases of tularemia. The change in mountain hare numbers was negatively associated with the number of human cases, showing the sensitivity of this species to the disease. Low turnover in water environments may at some point in time trigger a chain of events leading to increased replication of F. tularensis via unknown reservoirs and/or vectors that affect humans and mammals. A possible increase in the NAO index with a future warmer climate would not be expected to facilitate a higher frequency of tularemia outbreaks in Sweden.

  1. Comprehensive enzymatic analysis of the cellulolytic system in digestive fluid of the Sea Hare Aplysia kurodai. Efficient glucose release from sea lettuce by synergistic action of 45 kDa endoglucanase and 210 kDa ß-glucosidase.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiko Tsuji

    Full Text Available Although many endo-ß-1,4-glucanases have been isolated in invertebrates, their cellulolytic systems are not fully understood. In particular, gastropod feeding on seaweed is considered an excellent model system for production of bioethanol and renewable bioenergy from third-generation feedstocks (microalgae and seaweeds. In this study, enzymes involved in the conversion of cellulose and other polysaccharides to glucose in digestive fluids of the sea hare (Aplysia kurodai were screened and characterized to determine how the sea hare obtains glucose from sea lettuce (Ulva pertusa. Four endo-ß-1,4-glucanases (21K, 45K, 65K, and 95K cellulase and 2 ß-glucosidases (110K and 210K were purified to a homogeneous state, and the synergistic action of these enzymes during cellulose digestion was analyzed. All cellulases exhibited cellulase and lichenase activities and showed distinct cleavage specificities against cellooligosaccharides and filter paper. Filter paper was digested to cellobiose, cellotriose, and cellotetraose by 21K cellulase, whereas 45K and 65K enzymes hydrolyzed the filter paper to cellobiose and glucose. 210K ß-glucosidase showed unique substrate specificity against synthetic and natural substrates, and 4-methylumbelliferyl (4MU-ß-glucoside, 4MU-ß-galactoside, cello-oligosaccharides, laminarin, and lichenan were suitable substrates. Furthermore, 210K ß-glucosidase possesses lactase activity. Although ß-glucosidase and cellulase are necessary for efficient hydrolysis of carboxymethylcellulose to glucose, laminarin is hydrolyzed to glucose only by 210K ß-glucosidase. Kinetic analysis of the inhibition of 210K ß-glucosidase by D-glucono-1,5-lactone suggested the presence of 2 active sites similar to those of mammalian lactase-phlorizin hydrolase. Saccharification of sea lettuce was considerably stimulated by the synergistic action of 45K cellulase and 210K ß-glucosidase. Our results indicate that 45K cellulase and 210K

  2. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics...... and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated...... to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass...

  3. On Oscillatory Pattern of Malaria Dynamics in a Population with Temporary Immunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Tumwiine

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We use a model to study the dynamics of malaria in the human and mosquito population to explain the stability patterns of malaria. The model results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and occurs whenever the basic reproduction number, R0 is less than unity. We also note that when R0>1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the endemic equilibrium is stable. Numerical simulations show that recoveries and temporary immunity keep the populations at oscillation patterns and eventually converge to a steady state.

  4. Seasonal dynamics of SAR11 populations in the euphotic and mesopelagic zones of the northwestern Sargasso Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, Craig A; Morris, Robert; Parsons, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    , resolving their temporal dynamics can provide important insights to the cycling of organic and inorganic nutrients. This quantitative time-series data revealed distinct annual distribution patterns of SAR11 abundance in the euphotic (0-120) and upper mesopelagic (160-300 m) zones that were reproducibly...... correlated with seasonal mixing and stratification of the water column. Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) data generated from a decade of samples collected at BATS were combined with the FISH data to model the annual dynamics of SAR11 subclade populations. 16S rRNA gene clone...... the Sargasso Sea surface layer, and revealed new details of their population dynamics....

  5. Alleles versus genotypes: Genetic interactions and the dynamics of selection in sexual populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neher, Richard

    2010-03-01

    Physical interactions between amino-acids are essential for protein structure and activity, while protein-protein interactions and regulatory interactions are central to cellular function. As a consequence of these interactions, the combined effect of two mutations can differ from the sum of the individual effects of the mutations. This phenomenon of genetic interaction is known as epistasis. However, the importance of epistasis and its effects on evolutionary dynamics are poorly understood, especially in sexual populations where recombination breaks up existing combinations of alleles to produce new ones. Here, we present a computational model of selection dynamics involving many epistatic loci in a recombining population. We demonstrate that a large number of polymorphic interacting loci can, despite frequent recombination, exhibit cooperative behavior that locks alleles into favorable genotypes leading to a population consisting of a set of competing clones. As the recombination rate exceeds a certain critical value this ``genotype selection'' phase disappears in an abrupt transition giving way to ``allele selection'' - the phase where different loci are only weakly correlated as expected in sexually reproducing populations. Clustering of interacting sets of genes on a chromosome leads to the emergence of an intermediate regime, where localized blocks of cooperating alleles lock into genetic modules. Large populations attain highest fitness at a recombination rate just below critical, suggesting that natural selection might tune recombination rates to balance the beneficial aspect of exploration of genotype space with the breaking up of synergistic allele combinations.

  6. The Effect of Variation in Developmental Mode on the Population Dynamics of a Spionid Polychaete (Pygospio elegans) in a Heterogeneous Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thonig, Anne

    by the short life span of P. elegans and sweepstakes reproductive success. Additionally, stochastic events, such as rain storms, can lead to abrupt drops in salinity which can be detrimental for P. elegans and hence introduce further changes in population structure. Seasonal dynamics, including sexual...... of poecilogonous species that show a polymorphism in developmental mode might be more useful than are comparisons between species, since no confounding effects due to speciation arise. In this study, I documented the population ecology and genetics of the poecilogonous polychaete P. elegans and investigated...... the impact of abiotic and biotic variables on population dynamics. Four focal populations from the Isefjord-RoskildeFjord estuary complex, Denmark were sampled over one year. I observed highly dynamic population structure in both size cohort data and population genetic data that is possibly explained...

  7. Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2012-02-01

    In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and

  8. A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng

    2018-02-01

    A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

  9. Environmental influence on population dynamics of the bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corte, Guilherme Nascimento; Coleman, Ross A.; Amaral, A. Cecília Z.

    2017-03-01

    Understanding how species respond to the environment in terms of population attributes (e.g. abundance, growth, mortality, fecundity, and productivity) is essential to protect ecologically and economically important species. Nevertheless, responses of macrobenthic populations to environmental features are overlooked due to the need of consecutive samplings and time-consuming measurements. We examined the population dynamics of the filter-feeding bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana on a tidal flat over the course of one year to investigate the hypothesis that, as accepted for macrobenthic communities, populations inhabiting environments with low hydrodynamic conditions such as tidal flat should have higher attributes than populations inhabiting more energetic habitats (i.e. areas more influenced by wave energy such as reflective and intermediate beaches). This would be expected because the harsh conditions of more energetic habitats force organisms to divert more energy towards maintenance, resulting in lower population attributes. We found that A. brasiliana showed moderate growth and secondary production at the study area. Moreover the recruitment period was restricted to a few months. A comparison with previous studies showed that, contrary to expected, A. brasiliana populations from areas with low hydrodynamic conditions have lower abundance, growth, recruitment and turnover rate. It is likely that morphodynamic characteristics recorded in these environments, such as larger periods of air exposure and lower water circulation, may affect food conditions for filter-feeding species and increase competition. In addition, these characteristics may negatively affect macrobenthic species by enhancing eutrophication processes and anoxia. Overall, our results suggest that models accepted and applied at the macrobenthic community level might not be directly extended to A. brasiliana populations.

  10. Cost-effectiveness of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis - A population-based dynamic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welte, R; Kretzschmar, M; Leidl, R; Van den Hoek, A; Jager, JC; Postma, MJ

    2000-01-01

    Background: Models commonly used for the economic assessment of chamydial screening programs do not consider population effects. Goal: To develop a novel dynamic approach for the economic evaluation of chlamydial prevention measures and to determine the cost-effectiveness of a general

  11. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin V. Remais

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF 3.2.1 baseline/current (2001–2004 and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059 climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate.

  12. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

  13. Short-term wavelike dynamics of bacterial populations in response to nutrient input from fresh plant residues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zelenev, V.V.; Bruggen, van A.H.C.; Semenov, A.M.

    2005-01-01

    The objectives of the research were to investigate short-term dynamics of bacterial populations in soil after a disturbance in the form of fresh organic matter incorporation and to investigate how these dynamics are linked to those of some environmental parameters. To reach these objectives, soil

  14. Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

    2011-01-01

    Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms

  15. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  16. Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

    2014-12-01

    Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from

  17. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabel, Michael; Regoes, Roland R; Graw, Frederik

    2017-01-01

    The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  18. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Gabel

    Full Text Available The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  19. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  20. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  1. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Qu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  2. Smallholder dairy systems in the Kenya highlands: cattle population dynamics under increasing intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bebe, B.O.; Udo, H.M.J.; Rowlands, G.J.; Thorpe, W.

    2003-01-01

    A cross-sectional stratified random sample survey of 1755 households in the Kenya highlands was conducted between June 1996 and April 1998 to quantify cattle population dynamics in smallholder herds. The free-, semi-zero- and zero-grazing systems practised represented increasing levels of

  3. Population and coherence dynamics in light harvesting complex II (LH2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Shu-Hao; Zhu, Jing; Kais, Sabre

    2012-08-28

    The electronic excitation population and coherence dynamics in the chromophores of the photosynthetic light harvesting complex 2 (LH2) B850 ring from purple bacteria (Rhodopseudomonas acidophila) have been studied theoretically at both physiological and cryogenic temperatures. Similar to the well-studied Fenna-Matthews-Olson (FMO) protein, oscillations of the excitation population and coherence in the site basis are observed in LH2 by using a scaled hierarchical equation of motion approach. However, this oscillation time (300 fs) is much shorter compared to the FMO protein (650 fs) at cryogenic temperature. Both environment and high temperature are found to enhance the propagation speed of the exciton wave packet yet they shorten the coherence time and suppress the oscillation amplitude of coherence and the population. Our calculations show that a long-lived coherence between chromophore electronic excited states can exist in such a noisy biological environment.

  4. Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinkel, Martina

    2013-04-01

    Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

  5. Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

    2011-04-01

    The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. Africa population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van, G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million today, or from 20% to 46% of the population as a whole. Demographers predict that soon more than 50% of all Africans will be living in cities. The average life expectancy, literacy rates and primar...

  7. Genetic and environmental control of seasonal carbohydrate dynamics in trees of diverse Pinus sylvestris populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oleksyn, J.; Zytkowiak, R.; Karolewski, P.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.

    2000-06-01

    We explored environmental and genetic factors affecting seasonal dynamics of starch and soluble nonstructural carbohydrates in needle and twig cohorts and roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees of six populations originating between 49 degrees and 60 degrees N, and grown under common garden conditions in western Poland. Trees of each population were sampled once or twice per month over a 3-year period from age 15 to 17 years. Based on similarity in starch concentration patterns in needles, two distinct groups of populations were identified; one comprised northern populations from Sweden and Russia (59-60 degrees N), and another comprised central European populations from Latvia, Poland, Germany and France (49-56 degrees N). Needle starch concentrations of northern populations started to decline in late spring and reached minimum values earlier than those of central populations. For all populations, starch accumulation in spring started when minimum air temperature permanently exceeded 0 degrees C. Starch accumulation peaked before bud break and was highest in 1-year-old needles, averaging 9-13% of dry mass. Soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lowest in spring and summer and highest in autumn and winter. There were no differences among populations in seasonal pattern of soluble carbohydrate concentrations. Averaged across all populations, needle soluble carbohydrate concentrations increased from about 4% of needle dry mass in developing current-year needles, to about 9% in 1- and 2-year-old needles. Root carbohydrate concentration exhibited a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn. Northern populations had higher concentrations of fine-root starch in spring and autumn than central populations. Late-summer carbohydrate accumulation in roots started only after depletion of starch in needles and woody shoots. We conclude that Scots pine carbohydrate dynamics depend partially on inherited properties that are probably related to phenology of root

  8. Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Bartolino

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

  9. Microbial Population Dynamics Associated with Crude-Oil Biodegradation in Diverse Soils

    OpenAIRE

    Hamamura, Natsuko; Olson, Sarah H.; Ward, David M.; Inskeep, William P.

    2006-01-01

    Soil bacterial population dynamics were examined in several crude-oil-contaminated soils to identify those organisms associated with alkane degradation and to assess patterns in microbial response across disparate soils. Seven soil types obtained from six geographically distinct areas of the United States (Arizona, Oregon, Indiana, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Montana) were used in controlled contamination experiments containing 2% (wt/wt) crude oil spiked with [1-14C]hexadecane. Microbial populat...

  10. POST-SOVIET PERIOD CHANGES IN RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN CHUKOTKA AUTONOMOUS OKRUG (RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Litvinenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines changes that have occurred in the resource utilization sector and the impact of these changes on population dynamics in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (Russia during the post-Soviet period. This paper discuss topics of population-dynamics-related differences that have emerged in the region and impacts of these differences on the use of natural resources and the ethnic composition of the population. Through this study, it was shown that changes have tended to be small in local areas where indigenous peoples who have engaged in traditional natural resource use for a large proportion of the population, while changes have been relatively large in areas where the proportion of non-indigenous people is high and the mining industry has developed.

  11. Dynamics of game from 65 Giera aria Forest District Lunca Timisului in 2009-2013 period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorel Dronca

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Integration of the Romania in the E.U., is imposing a special attention to game populations. The aim of the present paper was to study the quantitative evolution of the game for the 13 species during 2009-2013, on the hunting terrain 65 Giera, from Forest Domain – Lunca Timişului, with a total surface of 11,974 ha. The study shows that form the 13 species monitored, 3 were not identified on this hunting terrain Red Deer (Cervus elaphus L., Fallow Deer (Dama dama L, European Pine Marten (Martes martes L.. For the other species identified the population evolution in number demonstrated that there is a god correlation between the number of individuals and its biogenic capacity. We recommend careful monitoring of the natural selection and the efficient use of artificial breeding especially for the European hare (Lepus europaeus P. specie.

  12. Effects of predation and dispersal on Mastomys natalensis population dynamics in Tanzanian maize fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vibe-Petersen, Solveig; Leirs, Herwig; de Bruyn, L

    2006-01-01

    ), excluding predators by nets and attracting avian predators by nest boxes and perch poles. Because dispersal of the rodents could mask the predation pressure treatment effects, control and predator exclusion treatments were repeated with enclosed rodent populations. 3.  Population growth during the annual...... risk. Reducing dispersal of rodents removed the effect of predation on population growth and peak size, suggesting that local predators may play a role in driving rodent dispersal, but have otherwise little direct effect on population dynamics....

  13. Mean-field dynamics of a population of stochastic map neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franović, Igor; Maslennikov, Oleg V.; Bačić, Iva; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.

    2017-07-01

    We analyze the emergent regimes and the stimulus-response relationship of a population of noisy map neurons by means of a mean-field model, derived within the framework of cumulant approach complemented by the Gaussian closure hypothesis. It is demonstrated that the mean-field model can qualitatively account for stability and bifurcations of the exact system, capturing all the generic forms of collective behavior, including macroscopic excitability, subthreshold oscillations, periodic or chaotic spiking, and chaotic bursting dynamics. Apart from qualitative analogies, we find a substantial quantitative agreement between the exact and the approximate system, as reflected in matching of the parameter domains admitting the different dynamical regimes, as well as the characteristic properties of the associated time series. The effective model is further shown to reproduce with sufficient accuracy the phase response curves of the exact system and the assembly's response to external stimulation of finite amplitude and duration.

  14. Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Christiansen-Jucht

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a “standard” model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors.

  15. Dynamical networks: Finding, measuring, and tracking neural population activity using network science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D. Humphries

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Systems neuroscience is in a headlong rush to record from as many neurons at the same time as possible. As the brain computes and codes using neuron populations, it is hoped these data will uncover the fundamentals of neural computation. But with hundreds, thousands, or more simultaneously recorded neurons come the inescapable problems of visualizing, describing, and quantifying their interactions. Here I argue that network science provides a set of scalable, analytical tools that already solve these problems. By treating neurons as nodes and their interactions as links, a single network can visualize and describe an arbitrarily large recording. I show that with this description we can quantify the effects of manipulating a neural circuit, track changes in population dynamics over time, and quantitatively define theoretical concepts of neural populations such as cell assemblies. Using network science as a core part of analyzing population recordings will thus provide both qualitative and quantitative advances to our understanding of neural computation.

  16. Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijster, T.; Warren, N.; Heederik, D.; Tielemans, E.

    2009-01-01

    Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal

  17. A dynamic population-based model for the development of work-related respiratory health effects among bakery workers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.; Meijster, T.; Heederik, D.; Tielemans, E.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This paper presents a dynamic population-based model for the development of sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in bakery workers. The model simulates a population of individual workers longitudinally and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in

  18. A dynamic population-based model for the development of work-related respiratory health effects among bakery workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.; Meijster, T.; Heederik, D.; Tielemans, E.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: This paper presents a dynamic population-based model for the development of sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in bakery workers. The model simulates a population of individual workers longitudinally and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in

  19. Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

    2017-10-15

    The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ulbrich

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L (Apoideae: Megachilidae and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

  1. Uncoupling the effects of seed predation and seed dispersal by granivorous ants on plant population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Arnan

    Full Text Available Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation and benefits (seed dispersal, the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength.

  2. Population dynamics of Glossina fuscipes fuscipes on Buvuma Island, Lake Victoria, Uganda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogwal, L.M.; Kangwagye, T.N.

    1990-01-01

    A survey made of Buvuma Island to establish the incidence, distribution and population dynamics of tsetse flies showed that Glossina fuscipes fuscipes Newstead was the most abundant species. This species occurred in the southeastern, western and northern parts of the island. Although the fly is both riverine and peridomestic in its habits, the survey revealed that its population was concentrated mainly within a distance of about 2 km from the lake shores around houses, in banana plantations, at forest edges and roadsides, in fishing villages and ports of call, on grazing grounds and at water collection points. Studies of the population dynamics revealed seasonal variations in the abundance of the species, with a peak during the main dry season, i.e. in the months of January and February. The breeding peak was reached during the minor rainy season. Trap catches were highest in fishing villages and ports of call, followed in decreasing order by catches at forest edge and roadside locations, at water collection points, around houses, in banana plantations and on grazing grounds. It appears that the fishing villages and ports of call were possibly the most suitable breeding grounds. The efficiency of the traps was reflected in the fact that G. f. fuscipes populations were reduced by up to 95% in Tome and 90% in the Bulopa-Walwanda and Lwenyanja villages. Many puparia were also found on the sandy beaches around fishing villages and ports of call. There was evidence of fly movement between the islands and the mainland, indicating that, although geographically isolated, Buvuma Island is not isolated from the mainland in terms of tsetse fly movement. (author). 21 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

  3. Population dynamics of Ascaridia galli following single infection in young chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferdushy, Tania; Luna Olivares, Luz Adilia; Nejsum, Peter

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY The population dynamics of Ascaridia galli was studied in 70 ISA Brown layer pullets, 42 of them were each experimentally infected with 500 embryonated A. galli eggs and 28 chickens were kept as uninfected controls. Six chickens from the infected group and 4 from the control group were...

  4. Comprehensive enzymatic analysis of the amylolytic system in the digestive fluid of the sea hare, Aplysia kurodai: Unique properties of two α-amylases and two α-glucosidases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiko Tsuji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Sea lettuce (Ulva pertusa is a nuisance species of green algae that is found all over the world. East-Asian species of the marine gastropod, the sea hare Aplysia kurodai, shows a clear feeding preference for sea lettuce. Compared with cellulose, sea lettuce contains a higher amount of starch as a storage polysaccharide. However, the entire amylolytic system in the digestive fluid of A. kurodai has not been studied in detail. We purified α-amylases and α-glucosidases from the digestive fluid of A. kurodai and investigated the synergistic action of these enzymes on sea lettuce. A. kurodai contain two α-amylases (59 and 80 kDa and two α-glucosidases (74 and 86 kDa. The 59-kDa α-amylase, but not the 80-kDa α-amylase, was markedly activated by Ca2+ or Cl−. Both α-amylases degraded starch and maltoheptaose, producing maltotriose, maltose, and glucose. Glucose production from starch was higher with 80-kDa α-amylase than with 59-kDa α-amylase. Kinetic analysis indicated that 74-kDa α-glucosidase prefers short α-1,4-linked oligosaccharide, whereas 86-kDa α-glucosidase prefers large α-1,6 and α-1,4-linked polysaccharides such as glycogen. When sea lettuce was used as a substrate, a 2-fold greater amount of glucose was released by treatment with 59-kDa α-amylase and 74-kDa α-glucosidase than by treatment with 45-kDa cellulase and 210-kDa β-glucosidase of A. kurodai. Unlike mammals, sea hares efficiently digest sea lettuce to glucose by a combination of two α-amylases and two α-glucosidases in the digestive fluids without membrane-bound maltase–glucoamylase and sucrase–isomaltase complexes.

  5. Allee’s dynamics and bifurcation structures in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, Abdel-Kaddous; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

    2018-03-01

    The interest and the relevance of the study of the population dynamics and the extinction phenomenon are our main motivation to investigate the induction of Allee Effect in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions. The adjustment or correction factor of rational type introduced allows us to analyze simultaneously strong and weak Allee’s functions and functions with no Allee effect, whose classification is dependent on the stability of the fixed point x = 0. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee’s effects to the population growth rates associated. The transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is verified with the evolution of the rarefaction critical density or Allee’s limit. The existence of cusp points on a fold bifurcation curve is related to this phenomenon of transition on Allee’s dynamics. Moreover, the “foliated” structure of the parameter plane considered is also explained, with respect to the evolution of the Allee limit. The bifurcation analysis is based on the configurations of fold and flip bifurcation curves. The chaotic semistability and the nonadmissibility bifurcation curves are proposed to this family of 1D maps, which allow us to define and characterize the corresponding Allee effect region.

  6. Bacterial population dynamics during the ensiling of Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and subsequent exposure to air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarvey, J A; Franco, R B; Palumbo, J D; Hnasko, R; Stanker, L; Mitloehner, F M

    2013-06-01

    To describe, at high resolution, the bacterial population dynamics and chemical transformations during the ensiling of alfalfa and subsequent exposure to air. Samples of alfalfa, ensiled alfalfa and silage exposed to air were collected and their bacterial population structures compared using 16S rRNA gene libraries containing approximately 1900 sequences each. Cultural and chemical analyses were also performed to complement the 16S gene sequence data. Sequence analysis revealed significant differences (P alfalfa-derived library contained mostly sequences associated with the Gammaproteobacteria (including the genera: Enterobacter, Erwinia and Pantoea); the ensiled material contained mostly sequences associated with the lactic acid bacteria (LAB) (including the genera: Lactobacillus, Pediococcus and Lactococcus). Exposure to air resulted in even greater percentages of LAB, especially among the genus Lactobacillus, and a significant drop in bacterial diversity. In-depth 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis revealed significant bacterial population structure changes during ensiling and again during exposure to air. This in-depth description of the bacterial population dynamics that occurred during ensiling and simulated feed out expands our knowledge of these processes. © 2013 The Society for Applied Microbiology No claim to US Government works.

  7. Studies on the population dynamics of a rumor-spreading model in online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Fan, Feng-Hua; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2018-02-01

    This paper sets up a rumor spreading model in online social networks based on the European fox rabies SIR model. The model considers the impact of changing number of online social network users, combines the transmission dynamics to set up a population dynamics of rumor spreading model in online social networks. Simulation is carried out on online social network, and results show that the new rumor spreading model is in accordance with the real propagation characteristics in online social networks.

  8. Population dynamics of earthworms in relation to soil physico-chemical parameters in agroforestry systems of Mizoram, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalthanzara, H; Ramanujam, S N; Jha, L K

    2011-09-01

    Earthworm population dynamics was studied in two agroforestry systems in the tropical hilly terrain of Mizoram, north-east India, over a period of 24 months, from July 2002 to June 2004. Two sites of agroforestry situated at Sakawrtuichhun (SKT) and Pachhunga University College (PUC) campus, Aizawl, having pineapple as the main crop, were selected for detail studies on population dynamics. Five of the total twelve species of earthworm reported from the state were recorded in the study sites. The density of earthworm ranged from 6 to 243 ind.m(-2) and biomass from 3.2 - 677.64 g.m(-2) in SKT. Comparatively the density and biomass in PUC, which is at relatively higher altitude were lowerwith a range of 0 to 176 ind.m(-2) and biomass from 0 - 391.36 g.m(-2) respectively. Population dynamics of earthworm was significantly correlated with rainfall and physical characters of the soil. Earthworm biomass was significantly affected by rainfall and moisture content of the soil. The influence of chemical factors was relatively less.

  9. Slow and fast dynamics model of a Malaria with Sickle-Cell genetic disease with multi-stage infections of the mosquitoes population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi Siawanta, Shanti; Adi-Kusumo, Fajar; Irwan Endrayanto, Aluicius

    2018-03-01

    Malaria, which is caused by Plasmodium, is a common disease in tropical areas. There are three types of Plasmodium i.e. Plasmodium Vivax, Plasmodium Malariae, and Plasmodium Falciparum. The most dangerous cases of the Malaria are mainly caused by the Plasmodium Falciparum. One of the important characteristics for the Plasmodium infection is due to the immunity of erythrocyte that contains HbS (Haemoglobin Sickle-cell) genes. The individuals who has the HbS gene has better immunity against the disease. In this paper, we consider a model that shows the spread of malaria involving the interaction between the mosquitos population, the human who has HbS genes population and the human with normal gene population. We do some analytical and numerical simulation to study the basic reproduction ratio and the slow-fast dynamics of the phase-portrait. The slow dynamics in our model represents the response of the human population with HbS gene to the Malaria disease while the fast dynamics show the response of the human population with the normal gene to the disease. The slow and fast dynamics phenomena are due to the fact that the population of the individuals who have HbS gene is much smaller than the individuals who has normal genes.

  10. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  11. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; De Lima Ribeiro, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  12. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2013-12-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  13. Gradual plasticity alters population dynamics in variable environments: thermal acclimation in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhartdii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Colin T; Fey, Samuel B; Arellano, Aldo A; Vasseur, David A

    2018-01-10

    Environmental variability is ubiquitous, but its effects on populations are not fully understood or predictable. Recent attention has focused on how rapid evolution can impact ecological dynamics via adaptive trait change. However, the impact of trait change arising from plastic responses has received less attention, and is often assumed to optimize performance and unfold on a separate, faster timescale than ecological dynamics. Challenging these assumptions, we propose that gradual plasticity is important for ecological dynamics, and present a study of the plastic responses of the freshwater green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as it acclimates to temperature changes. First, we show that C. reinhardtii 's gradual acclimation responses can both enhance and suppress its performance after a perturbation, depending on its prior thermal history. Second, we demonstrate that where conventional approaches fail to predict the population dynamics of C. reinhardtii exposed to temperature fluctuations, a new model of gradual acclimation succeeds. Finally, using high-resolution data, we show that phytoplankton in lake ecosystems can experience thermal variation sufficient to make acclimation relevant. These results challenge prevailing assumptions about plasticity's interactions with ecological dynamics. Amidst the current emphasis on rapid evolution, it is critical that we also develop predictive methods accounting for plasticity. © 2018 The Author(s).

  14. The dynamics of fish populations in the Palancar stream,a small tributary of the river Guadalquivir, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Ramón; Soriguer, Mila C.; Villar, Noelia; Hernando, José A.

    2001-02-01

    The relationship between flooding and changes in the size distribution of fish populations in the Palancar stream confirms observations in other rivers. On average, density decreased by 36.2 % and biomass increased by 14.5 %, passing from a period of severe drought to one of heavier than normal rains. Precipitation is the most important of the many factors affecting the populations of the Palancar stream; the most evident changes all occurred after the drought. During the drought period, the marked seasonal fluctuation in flow was the most important factor regulating the population dynamics. Fish density and biomass varied in proportion to the water volume. During the rainy period, the studied section of the river was found to be an important reproduction and nursery area, with juveniles and individuals of reproduction age dominating. The presence of Micropterus salmoides, an introduced piscivorous species, is another factor affecting the population dynamics in the Palancar stream. The observed absence of age 0+ individuals of the dominant populations is considered a direct effect of predation.

  15. Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

    2018-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  16. Population cycles and species diversity in dynamic Kill-the-Winner model of microbial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Determinants of species diversity in microbial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Bacteriophages are believed to increase the diversity by the virtue of Kill-the-Winner infection bias preventing the fastest growing organism from taking over the community. Phage-bacterial ecosystems are traditionally described in terms of the static equilibrium state of Lotka-Volterra equations in which bacterial growth is exactly balanced by losses due to phage predation. Here we consider a more dynamic scenario in which phage infections give rise to abrupt and severe collapses of bacterial populations whenever they become sufficiently large. As a consequence, each bacterial population in our model follows cyclic dynamics of exponential growth interrupted by sudden declines. The total population of all species fluctuates around the carrying capacity of the environment, making these cycles cryptic. While a subset of the slowest growing species in our model is always driven towards extinction, in general the overall ecosystem diversity remains high. The number of surviving species is inversely proportional to the variation in their growth rates but increases with the frequency and severity of phage-induced collapses. Thus counter-intuitively we predict that microbial communities exposed to more violent perturbations should have higher diversity. PMID:28051127

  17. The ArcSDE GIS Dynamic Population Model Tool for Savannah River Site Emergency Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCLANE, TRACY; JONES, DWIGHT

    2005-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) is a 310-square-mile Department of Energy site located near Aiken, South Carolina. With a workforce of over 10,000 employees and subcontractors, SRS emergency personnel must be able to respond to an emergency event in a timely and effective manner, in order to ensure the safety and security of the Site. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provides the technology needed to give managers and emergency personnel the information they need to make quick and effective decisions. In the event of a site evacuation, knowing the number of on-site personnel to evacuate from a given area is an essential piece of information for emergency staff. SRS has developed a GIS Dynamic Population Model Tool to quickly communicate real-time information that summarizes employee populations by facility area and building and then generates dynamic maps that illustrate output statistics

  18. DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

    2014-05-01

    In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J

  19. Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akimenko, Vitalii; Anguelov, Roumen

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

  20. Population dynamics of the sand shiner (notropis stramineus) in non-wadeable rivers of Iowa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C.D.; Neebling, T.E.; Quist, M.C.

    2010-01-01

    The sand shiner (Notropis stramineus) is a common cyprinid found throughout the Great Plains region of North America that plays an important ecological role in aquatic systems. This study was conducted to describe population dynamics of sand shiners including age structure, growth, mortality, and recruitment variability in 15 non-wadeable rivers in Iowa. Fish were collected during June-August (2007-2008) using a modified Missouri trawl, a seine, and boat-mounted electrofishing. Scales were removed for age and growth analysis. A total of 3,443 fish was sampled from 15 populations across Iowa, of which 676 were aged. Iowa's sand shiner populations consisted primarily of age-1 fish (53% of all fish sampled), followed by age-2 fish (30%), age-0 fish (15%), and age-3 fish (2%). Sand shiners grew an average of 38.5 mm (SE = 5.7) during their first year, 13.8 mm (4.5) during their second year, and 9.0 mm (6.9) during their third year. Total annual mortality varied from 35.0% to 92.3% among populations with a mean of 77.9% (0.2). Incremental mortality rates were 84.5% (0.2) between age 1 and age 2, and 92.0% (0.1) between age 2 and age 3. Recruitment was highly variable, as indicated by a mean recruitment variation index of-0.12 (0.54). Overall, the sand shiner was characterized by relatively low mean age, fast growth, high mortality, and high recruitment variability. Indices of sand shiner population dynamics were poorly correlated with habitat characteristics.