Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B
2017-06-01
sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.
2017-01-01
sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.
Climate changes, economy and growth: political relationships
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alex, Bastien
2017-03-01
The author addresses the relationships which may exist between climate change and economic growth, by discussing and criticising some common ideas, and the role of the economic parameter in the position of states within negotiations. These common ideas are: the struggle against climate change impedes economic growth, and green economy provides new growth levers. The author also discusses the fact that some countries may feel they have to slow down their growth because emerging countries are facing a strong development and thus have a strong impact on climate changes. He also outlines that political forces which are presently in power, tend to have a critical approach and speech on mitigation measures
On climate change and economic growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fankhauser, Samuel; Tol, Richard S.J.
2005-01-01
The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we take a closer look at these dynamic effects, in particular saving and capital accumulation. With a constant savings rate, a lower output due to climate change will lead to a proportionate reduction in investment which in turn will depress future production (capital accumulation effect) and, in almost all cases, future consumption per capita. If the savings rate is endogenous, forward looking agents would change their savings behavior to accommodate the impact of future climate change. This suppresses growth prospects in absolute and per capita terms (savings effect). In an endogenous growth context, these two effects may be exacerbated through changes in labour productivity and the rate of technical progress. Simulations using a simple climate-economy model suggest that the capital accumulation effect is important, especially if technological change is endogenous, and may be larger than the direct impact of climate change. The savings effect is less pronounced. The dynamic effects are more important, relative to the direct effects, if climate change impacts are moderate overall. This suggests that they are more of a concern in developed countries, which are believed to be less vulnerable to climate change. The magnitude of dynamic effects is not sensitive to the choice of discount rate
Radial growth of Qilian juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and potential climate associations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chun Qin
Full Text Available There is controversy regarding the limiting climatic factor for tree radial growth at the alpine treeline on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we collected 594 increment cores from 331 trees, grouped within four altitude belts spanning the range 3550 to 4020 m.a.s.l. on a single hillside. We have developed four equivalent ring-width chronologies and shown that there are no significant differences in their growth-climate responses during 1956 to 2011 or in their longer-term growth patterns during the period AD 1110-2011. The main climate influence on radial growth is shown to be precipitation variability. Missing ring analysis shows that tree radial growth at the uppermost treeline location is more sensitive to climate variation than that at other elevations, and poor tree radial growth is particularly linked to the occurrence of serious drought events. Hence water limitation, rather than temperature stress, plays the pivotal role in controlling the radial growth of Sabina przewalskii Kom. at the treeline in this region. This finding contradicts any generalisation that tree-ring chronologies from high-elevation treeline environments are mostly indicators of temperature changes.
Radial growth of Qilian juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and potential climate associations.
Qin, Chun; Yang, Bao; Melvin, Thomas M; Fan, Zexin; Zhao, Yan; Briffa, Keith R
2013-01-01
There is controversy regarding the limiting climatic factor for tree radial growth at the alpine treeline on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we collected 594 increment cores from 331 trees, grouped within four altitude belts spanning the range 3550 to 4020 m.a.s.l. on a single hillside. We have developed four equivalent ring-width chronologies and shown that there are no significant differences in their growth-climate responses during 1956 to 2011 or in their longer-term growth patterns during the period AD 1110-2011. The main climate influence on radial growth is shown to be precipitation variability. Missing ring analysis shows that tree radial growth at the uppermost treeline location is more sensitive to climate variation than that at other elevations, and poor tree radial growth is particularly linked to the occurrence of serious drought events. Hence water limitation, rather than temperature stress, plays the pivotal role in controlling the radial growth of Sabina przewalskii Kom. at the treeline in this region. This finding contradicts any generalisation that tree-ring chronologies from high-elevation treeline environments are mostly indicators of temperature changes.
Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.
Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M
2014-01-01
Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.
Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Melanie A Harsch
Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.
Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment
Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.
2014-01-01
Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026
Jiang, Xinyu; Huang, Jian-Guo; Cheng, Jiong; Dawson, Andria; Stadt, Kenneth J; Comeau, Philip G; Chen, Han Y H
2018-08-01
Tree growth of boreal forest plays an important role on global carbon (C) cycle, while tree growth in the western Canadian boreal mixed forests has been predicted to be negatively affected by regional drought. Individual tree growth can be controlled by many factors, such as competition, climate, tree size and age. However, information about contributions of different factors to tree growth is still limited in this region. In order to address this uncertainty, tree rings of two dominant tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss), were sampled from boreal mixed forest stands distributed across Alberta, Canada. Tree growth rates over different time intervals (10years interval, 1998-2007; 20years interval, 1988-2007; 30years interval, 1978-2007) were calculated to study the effects of different factors (tree size, competition, climate, and age) on tree growth. Results indicated that tree growth of two species were both primarily affected by competition or tree size, while climatic indices showed less effects on tree growth. Growth of trembling aspen was significantly affected by inter- and intraspecific competition, while growth of white spruce was primarily influenced by tree size, followed by competition. Positive relationship was found between growth of white spruce and competition index of coniferous group, suggesting an intraspecific mutualism mechanism within coniferous group. Our results further suggested that competition driven succession was the primary process of forest composition shift in the western Canadian boreal mixed forest. Although drought stress increased tree mortality, decline of stem density under climate change released competition stress of surviving trees, which in turn sustained growth of surviving trees. Therefore, climatic indices showed fewer effects on growth of dominant tree species compared to other factors in our study. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.
Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona
2016-12-01
Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.
Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth
Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno
2014-01-01
Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981
McLane, Sierra C; LeMay, Valerie M; Aitken, Sally N
2011-04-01
Forests strongly affect Earth's carbon cycles, making our ability to forecast forest-productivity changes associated with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation increasingly critical. In this study, we model the influence of climate on annual radial growth using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees grown for 34 years in a large provenance experiment in western Canada. We use a random-coefficient modeling approach to build universal growth-trend response functions that simultaneously incorporate the impacts of different provenance and site climates on radial growth trends under present and future annual (growth-year), summer, and winter climate regimes. This approach provides new depth to traditional quantitative genetics population response functions by illustrating potential changes in population dominance over time, as well as indicating the age and size at which annual growth begins declining for any population growing in any location under any present or future climate scenario within reason, given the ages and climatic conditions sampled. Our models indicate that lodgepole pine radial-growth levels maximize between 3.9 degrees and 5.1 degrees C mean growth-year temperature. This translates to productivity declining by the mid-21st century in southern and central British Columbia (BC), while increasing beyond the 2080s in northern BC and Yukon, as temperatures rise. Relative to summer climate indices, productivity is predicted to decline continuously through the 2080s in all locations, while relative to winter climate variables, the opposite trend occurs, with the growth increases caused by warmer winters potentially offsetting the summer losses. Trees from warmer provenances, i.e., from the center of the species range, perform best in nearly all of our present and future climate-scenario models. We recommend that similar models be used to analyze population growth trends relative to annual and intra-annual climate in other large-scale provenance
Whitney L. Albright; David L. Peterson
2013-01-01
Climate change in the 21st century will affect tree growth in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, although complex climateâgrowth relationships make it difficult to identify how radial growth will respond across different species distributions. We used a novel method to examine potential growth responses to climate change at a broad geographical scale with a...
Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beck, Pieter S.A.
2015-01-01
Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance1–4. Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost2,5–8, yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting...... of multi-decadal time series of annual shrub growth provide an underused resource to explore climate–growth relationships. Here, we analyse circumpolar data from 37 Arctic and alpine sites in 9 countries, including 25 species, and 42,000 annual growth records from 1,821 individuals. Our analyses...... demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was: (1) heterogeneous, with European sites showing greater summer temperature sensitivity than North American sites, and (2) higher at sites with greater soil moisture and for taller shrubs (for example, alders and willows) growing at their northern...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas
2012-01-01
The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types
Effects of climate change on growth of 0-group sole and plaice
Teal, L.R.; Leeuw, de J.J.; Veer, van der H.W.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.
2008-01-01
The effect of rising seawater temperature on growth of 0-group sole Solea solea and plaice Pleuronectes platessa in the southeastern North Sea was investigated for the period 1970 to 2004 using annual autumn pre-recruit survey data and frequent surveys on a nursery ground. Autumn length showed an
Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin
Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans
2018-05-01
Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.
Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin
Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans
2017-12-01
Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.
Growth-climate relationships across topographic gradients in the northern Great Lakes
S.F. Dymond; A.W. D' Amato; Randy Kolka; P.V. Bolstad; Stephen Sebestyen; J.B. Bradford
2016-01-01
Climatic conditions exert important control over the growth, productivity, and distribution of forests, and characterizing these relationships is essential for understanding how forest ecosystems will respond to climate change. We used dendrochronological methods to develop climateâgrowth relationships for two dominant species, Populus tremuloides...
Growth-climate relationships across topographic gradients in the northern Great Lakes
Dymond, S.F.; D'Amato, A.W.; Kolka, R.K.; Bolstad, P.V.; Sebestyen, S.D.; Bradford, John B.
2016-01-01
Climatic conditions exert important control over the growth, productivity, and distribution of forests, and characterizing these relationships is essential for understanding how forest ecosystems will respond to climate change. We used dendrochronological methods to develop climate–growth relationships for two dominant species, Populus tremuloides (quaking aspen) and Pinus resinosa (red pine), in the upper Great Lakes region to understand how climate and water availability influence annual forest productivity. Trees were sampled along a topographic gradient at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA) to assess growth response to variations in temperature and different water availability metrics (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), cumulative moisture index (CMI), and soil water storage). Climatic variables were able to explain 33–58% of the variation in annual growth (as measured by ring-width increment) for quaking aspen and 37–74% of the variation for red pine. Climate–growth relationships were influenced by topography for quaking aspen but not for red pine. Annual ring growth for quaking aspen decreased with June CMI on ridges, decreased with temperature in the November prior to the growing season on sideslopes, and decreased with June PET on toeslopes. Red pine growth increased with increasing July PET across all topographic positions. These results indicate the sensitivity of both quaking aspen and red pine to local climate and show several vulnerabilities of these species to shifts in water supply and temperature because of climate change.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Roberto Sette Jr
2016-04-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.
The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hallegatte, Stephane [CIRED - CNRM, Nogent-sur-Marne (France)
2005-04-01
This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)
The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hallegatte, Stephane
2005-04-01
This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)
Measuring group climate in prison
Peer van der Helm PhD; P.H. van der Laan; G.J.J.M. Stams
2011-01-01
The present study examines the construct validity and reliability of the Prison Group Climate Instrument (PGCI) in a sample of 77 adolescents placed in a Dutch youth prison and 49 adult prisoners living in a Dutch psychiatric prison with a therapeutic living group structure. Confirmatory factor
Group Cohesion in Experiential Growth Groups
Steen, Sam; Vasserman-Stokes, Elaina; Vannatta, Rachel
2014-01-01
This article explores the effect of web-based journaling on changes in group cohesion within experiential growth groups. Master's students were divided into 2 groups. Both used a web-based platform to journal after each session; however, only 1 of the groups was able to read each other's journals. Quantitative data collected before and…
Green growth in the post-Copenhagen climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sterner, Thomas; Damon, Maria
2011-01-01
Global climate change stands out from most environmental problems because it will span generations and force us to think in new ways about intergenerational fairness. It involves the delicate problem of complex coordination between countries on a truly global scale. As long as fossil fuels are too cheap, climate change policy will engage all major economies. The costs are high enough to make efficiency a priority, which means striving toward a single market for carbon-plus tackling the thorny issues of fairness. Hopes for a grand deal were mercilessly shattered at Copenhagen in December 2009 and in other recent UNFCCC meetings, with the result that 'green growth' is promoted as an alternative path. Indeed, green growth is clearly the goal, but it is no magic bullet. The world economy will require clear and rather tough policy instruments for growth to be green-and it is naive to think otherwise. Growth, green or not, will boost demand for energy and coal is normally the cheapest source. The magnitude of the challenge is greater if we also consider the problems related to nuclear (fission) energy and, in some instances, to bioenergy (such as its competition for land that may be essential for the poor). This paper discusses some necessary ingredients for a long-term global climate strategy. As we wait for the final (and maybe elusive) worldwide treaty, we must find a policy that makes sense and is not only compatible with, but facilitates the development of such a treaty. - Highlights: → Climate mitigation will be expensive so we must use market based instruments to deal with it efficiently. → All countries need to be involved but many will hesitate. → MBIs require us to deal with problems of fairness in allocation. → Some countries see grandfathering as fair others prefer equal per capita allocation. → Green growth is a necessity but no panacea.
Teets, Aaron; Fraver, Shawn; Weiskittel, Aaron R; Hollinger, David Y
2018-03-11
A range of environmental factors regulate tree growth; however, climate is generally thought to most strongly influence year-to-year variability in growth. Numerous dendrochronological (tree-ring) studies have identified climate factors that influence year-to-year variability in growth for given tree species and location. However, traditional dendrochronology methods have limitations that prevent them from adequately assessing stand-level (as opposed to species-level) growth. We argue that stand-level growth analyses provide a more meaningful assessment of forest response to climate fluctuations, as well as the management options that may be employed to sustain forest productivity. Working in a mature, mixed-species stand at the Howland Research Forest of central Maine, USA, we used two alternatives to traditional dendrochronological analyses by (1) selecting trees for coring using a stratified (by size and species), random sampling method that ensures a representative sample of the stand, and (2) converting ring widths to biomass increments, which once summed, produced a representation of stand-level growth, while maintaining species identities or canopy position if needed. We then tested the relative influence of seasonal climate variables on year-to-year variability in the biomass increment using generalized least squares regression, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Our results indicate that stand-level growth responded most strongly to previous summer and current spring climate variables, resulting from a combination of individualistic climate responses occurring at the species- and canopy-position level. Our climate models were better fit to stand-level biomass increment than to species-level or canopy-position summaries. The relative growth responses (i.e., percent change) predicted from the most influential climate variables indicate stand-level growth varies less from to year-to-year than species-level or canopy-position growth responses. By
Relationships between climate and growth of Gymnocypris selincuoensis in the Tibetan Plateau.
Tao, Juan; Chen, Yifeng; He, Dekui; Ding, Chengzhi
2015-04-01
The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly evident in the Tibetan Plateau, represented by glaciers retreating and lakes expanding, but the biological response to climate change by plateau-lake ecosystems is poorly known. In this study, we applied dendrochronology methods to develop a growth index chronology with otolith increment widths of Selincuo naked carp (Gymnocypris selincuoensis), which is an endemic species in Lake Selincuo (4530 m), and investigated the relationships between fish growth and climate variables (regional and global) in the last three decades. A correlation analysis and principle component regression analysis between regional climate factors and the growth index chronology indicated that the growth of G. selincuoensis was significantly and positively correlated with length of the growing season and temperature-related variables, particularly during the growing season. Most of global climate variables, which are relevant to the Asian monsoon and the midlatitude westerlies, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation Index, the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and North America Pattern, showed negative but not significant correlations with the annual growth of Selincuo naked carp. This may have resulted from the high elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the high mountains surrounding this area. In comparison, the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO) negatively affected the growth of G. selincuoensis. The reason maybe that enhancement of the PDO can lead to cold conditions in this area. Taken together, the results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau fish has been affected by global climate change, particularly during the growing season, and global climate change likely has important effects on productivity of aquatic ecosystems in this area.
Climate change and group dynamics
Postmes, Tom
2015-01-01
The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers
Climate-growth relationships of Abies spectabilis in a central Himalayan treeline ecotone
Schwab, Niels; Kaczka, Ryszard J.; Schickhoff, Udo
2017-04-01
Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The large spectrum of responses is not fully understood. In the framework of investigating the sensitivity and response of a near-natural treeline ecotone in Rolwaling Himal, Nepal, to climate warming we present results from dendroclimatological analyses of Abies spectabilis (Himalayan Fir) increment cores. Tree ring width was measured and cross-dated. After standardization, the chronology was correlated with temperature and precipitation variables. Preliminary results point to positive correlations with autumn temperature and precipitation. We will present improved climate-growth relationships. The resulting climate - tree growth relationships may be used as an indication of future growth patterns and treeline dynamics under climate change conditions.
Wild Apple Growth and Climate Change in Southeast Kazakhstan
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irina P. Panyushkina
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Wild populations of Malus sieversii [Ldb.] M. Roem are valued genetic and watershed resources in Inner Eurasia. These populations are located in a region that has experienced rapid and on-going climatic change over the past several decades. We assess relationships between climate variables and wild apple radial growth with dendroclimatological techniques to understand the potential of a changing climate to influence apple radial growth. Ring-width chronologies spanning 48 to 129 years were developed from 12 plots in the Trans-Ili Alatau and Jungar Alatau ranges of Tian Shan Mountains, southeastern Kazakhstan. Cluster analysis of the plot-level chronologies suggests different temporal patterns of growth variability over the last century in the two mountain ranges studied. Changes in the periodicity of annual ring-width variability occurred ca. 1970 at both mountain ranges, with decadal-scale variability supplanted by quasi-biennial variation. Seascorr correlation analysis of primary and secondary weather variables identified negative growth associations with spring precipitation and positive associations with cooler fall-winter temperatures, but the relative importance of these relationships varied spatially and temporally, with a shift in the relative importance of spring precipitation ca. 1970 at Trans-Ili Alatau. Altered apple tree radial growth patterns correspond to altered climatology in the Lake Balkhash Basin driven by unprecedented intensified Arctic Oscillations after the late 1970s.
A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M Irfan Ashraf
Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence
Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A
2014-01-01
The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.
Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain
Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.
2017-12-01
European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.
Growth and reproduction respond differently to climate in three Neotropical tree species.
Alfaro-Sánchez, Raquel; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Wright, S Joseph; Camarero, J Julio
2017-06-01
The response of tropical forests to anthropogenic climate change is critically important to future global carbon budgets, yet remains highly uncertain. Here, we investigate how precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and dry- and wet-season lengths are related to annual tree growth, flower production, and fruit production in three moist tropical forest tree species using long-term datasets from tree rings and litter traps in central Panama. We also evaluated how growth, flower, and fruit production were interrelated. We found that growth was positively correlated with wet-season precipitation in all three species: Jacaranda copaia (r = 0.63), Tetragastris panamensis (r = 0.39) and Trichilia tuberculata (r = 0.39). Flowering and fruiting in Jacaranda were negatively related to current-year dry-season rainfall and positively related to prior-year dry-season rainfall. Flowering in Tetragastris was negatively related to current-year annual mean temperature while Trichilia showed no significant relationships of reproduction with climate. Growth was significantly related to reproduction only in Tetragastris, where it was positively related to previous year fruiting. Our results suggest that tree growth in moist tropical forest tree species is generally reduced by drought events such as those associated with strong El Niño events. In contrast, interannual variation in reproduction is not generally associated with growth and has distinct and species-specific climate responses, with positive effects of El Niño events in some species. Understanding these contrasting climate effects on tree growth and reproduction is critical to predicting changes in tropical forest dynamics and species composition under climate change.
Climate Response of Tree Radial Growth at Different Timescales in the Qinling Mountains.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Changfeng Sun
Full Text Available The analysis of the tree radial growth response to climate is crucial for dendroclimatological research. However, the response relationships between tree-ring indices and climatic factors at different timescales are not yet clear. In this study, the tree-ring width of Huashan pine (Pinus armandii from Huashan in the Qinling Mountains, north-central China, was used to explore the response differences of tree growth to climatic factors at daily, pentad (5 days, dekad (10 days and monthly timescales. Correlation function and linear regression analysis were applied in this paper. The tree-ring width showed a more sensitive response to daily and pentad climatic factors. With the timescale decreasing, the absolute value of the maximum correlation coefficient between the tree-ring data and precipitation increases as well as temperature (mean, minimum and maximum temperature. Compared to the other three timescales, pentad was more suitable for analysing the response of tree growth to climate. Relative to the monthly climate data, the association between the tree-ring data and the pentad climate data was more remarkable and accurate, and the reconstruction function based on the pentad climate was also more reliable and stable. We found that the major climatic factor limiting Huashan pine growth was the precipitation of pentads 20-35 (from April 6 to June 24 rather than the well-known April-June precipitation. The pentad was also proved to be a better timescale for analysing the climate and tree growth in the western and eastern Qinling Mountains. The formation of the earlywood density of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis from Shimenshan in western Qinling was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of pentads 28-32 (from May 16 to June 9. The maximum temperature of pentads 28-33 (from May 16 to June 14 was the major factor affecting the ring width of Chinese pine from Shirenshan in eastern Qinling.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Helder Fraga
Full Text Available The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.
Wild apple growth and climate change in southeast Kazakhstan
Irina P. Panyushkina; Nurjan S. Mukhamadiev; Ann M. Lynch; Nursagim A. Ashikbaev; Alexis H. Arizpe; Christopher D. O' Connor; Danyar Abjanbaev; Gulnaz Z. Mengdbayeva; Abay O. Sagitov
2017-01-01
Wild populations of Malus sieversii [Ldb.] M. Roem are valued genetic and watershed resources in Inner Eurasia. These populations are located in a region that has experienced rapid and on-going climatic change over the past several decades. We assess relationships between climate variables and wild apple radial growth with dendroclimatological techniques to understand...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
2011-10-15
If green growth is to be a key priority for Nordic co-operation in the next few years, then it is essential to have a joint vision for the work - a vision underpinned by tangible activities, one that enjoys strong political support and sends important signals about political goals and intentions. ''The Nordic Region - leading in green growth'' is a vision based on the joint utilisation of Nordic strengths in energy efficiency, the development of sustainable energy, environmental awareness, investment in innovation and research, and ambitious international targets for the environment and climate. Working together, the Region will carry more weight, earn a bigger market share and make more of a political impact at international level. The working group recommends eight priorities: 1. developing Nordic test centres for green solutions. 2. working together on education, training and research for green growth. 3. promoting flexible consumption of electricity. 4. working together on green-technology norms and standards. 5. working together on green procurement in the public sector. 6. developing techniques and methods for waste treatment. 7. promoting the integration of environmental and climate considerations into development aid. 8. co-ordinating and improving funding for green investment and companies. (LN)
Araucaria growth response to solar and climate variability in South Brazil
Prestes, Alan; Klausner, Virginia; Rojahn da Silva, Iuri; Ojeda-González, Arian; Lorensi, Caren
2018-05-01
In this work, the Sun-Earth-climate relationship is studied using tree growth rings of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze collected in the city of Passo Fundo, located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil. These samples were previously studied by Rigozo et al. (2008); however, their main interest was to search for the solar periodicities in the tree-ring width mean time series without interpreting the rest of the periodicities found. The question arises as to what are the drivers related to those periodicities. For this reason, the classical method of spectral analysis by iterative regression and wavelet methods are applied to find periodicities and trends present in each tree-ring growth, in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and in annual mean temperature anomaly between the 24 and 44° S. In order to address the aforementioned question, this paper discusses the correlation between the growth rate of the tree rings with temperature and SOI. In each tree-ring growth series, periods between 2 and 7 years were found, possibly related to the El Niño/La Niña phenomena, and a ˜ 23-year period was found, which may be related to temperature variation. These novel results might represent the tree-ring growth response to local climate conditions during its lifetime, and to nonlinear coupling between the Sun and the local climate variability responsible to the regional climate variations.
Gössling, S.; Hall, C.M.; Peeters, P.M.; Scott, D.
2010-01-01
Tourism is an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Emissions growth in the sector is in substantial conflict with global climate policy goals that seek to mitigate climate change through deep emission reductions. This article discusses the role of various tourism
Possible changes in climate constraints and consequences on tree growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Breda, Nathalie; Granier, Andre; Aussenac, Gilbert
2000-01-01
The probable consequences of changes in the major climate variables (rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration) on growth and die back of forest trees are analysed for the range of variations forecasted by global climate change models. The sensitivity of phenology (temperature effects) and levels of water constraints during the growing season (change in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) are developed. On the basis of the relations established by a retrospective dendro-climatological approach between radial increment and climate, the consequences of climate variations on the radial increment of beech and on oak mortality are discussed. (authors)
Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K
2016-09-01
Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
Change in Vegetation Growth and Its Feedback to Climate in the Tibet Plateau
Piao, S.
2015-12-01
Vegetation growth is strongly influenced by climate and climate change and can affect the climate system through a number of bio-physical processes. As a result, monitoring, understanding and predicting the response of vegetation growth to global change has been a central activity in Earth system science during the past two decades. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced a pronounced warming over recent decades. The warming rate of the TP over the period 1960-2009 was about twice the global average warming rate, yet with heterogeneous patterns. In this study, we use satellite derived NDVI data to investigate spatio-temporal change in vegetation growth over the last three decades.
The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City
Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.
2017-12-01
Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the
Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M
2012-01-01
Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jensen, Deborah Bowne [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
1993-01-01
Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled CO2 climates was estimated.
Beck, P. S. A.; Myers-Smith, I. H.; Elmendorf, S.; Georges, D.
2015-12-01
Despite evidence of rapid shrub expansion at many Arctic sites and the profound effects this has on ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycling, and land-atmosphere feedbacks in the Arctic, the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. The compilation of 41,576 annual shrub growth measurements made around the Arctic, allowed for the first systematic evaluation of the climate sensitivity of Arctic shrub growth, i.e. the strength of the relationship between annual shrub growth and monthly climate variables. The growth measurements were taken on 1821 plants of 25 species at 37 arctic and alpine sites, either as annual ring widths or as stem increments. We evaluated climate sensitivity of shrub growth for each genus-by-site combination in this data set based on the performance and parameters of linear mixed models that used CRU TS3.21 climate data as predictors of shrub growth between 1950 and 2010. 76% of genus-by-site combinations showed climate sensitive growth, but climate-growth relationships varied with soil moisture, species canopy height, and geographic position within the species ranges. Shrubs growing at sites with more soil moisture showed greater climate sensitivity, suggesting that water availability might limit shrub growth if continued warming isn't matched by a steady increase in soil moisture. Tall shrub species growing at their northern range limit were particularly climate sensitive causing climate sensitivity of shrubs to peak at the transition between Low and High Arctic, where carbon storage in permafrost is greatest. Local and regional studies have documented matching spatial and temporal patterns in dendrochronological measurements and satellite observations of vegetation indices both in boreal and Arctic regions. Yet the circumarctic comparison of patterns in dendrochronological and remote sensing data sets yielded poor levels of agreement. In much of the Arctic, steep environmental gradients generate fine spatial patterns of vegetation
Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty in Ethiopia
2013-06-01
intergration Tests 8 Empirical Strategy 8 Discussion of Estimation Results 9 Climate Change and Economic Growth...production and marketing (Parry, 2007; Barrios et al , 2004), the impact of which can easily be transmitted to Ethiopia through trade channels with...Ethiopia and other developing countries to depend particularly on expensive cereal imports, worsening the trade balance in these countries However
Phenology and growth of European trees in relation to climate change
Kramer, K.
1996-01-01
Research topics
The relationships between climate and both phenology and growth of some important European tree species were studied to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on trees and forests in Europe. In order to make such assessments, insight is
Growth functions for some uniformly amenable groups
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dronka Janusz
2017-04-01
Full Text Available We present a simple constructive proof of the fact that every abelian discrete group is uniformly amenable. We improve the growth function obtained earlier and find the optimal growth function in a particular case. We also compute a growth function for some non-abelian uniformly amenable group.
Tree growth-climate relationships in a forest-plot network on Mediterranean mountains.
Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Christopoulou, Anastasia; Galanidis, Alexandros; Michelaki, Chrysanthi Z; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Fulé, Peter Z; Arianoutsou, Margarita
2017-11-15
In this study we analysed a novel tree-growth dataset, inferred from annual ring-width measurements, of 7 forest tree species from 12 mountain regions in Greece, in order to identify tree growth - climate relationships. The tree species of interest were: Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus frainetto growing across a gradient of climate conditions with mean annual temperature ranging from 5.7 to 12.6°C and total annual precipitation from 500 to 950mm. In total, 344 tree cores (one per tree) were analysed across a network of 20 study sites. We found that water availability during the summer period (May-August) was a strong predictor of interannual variation in tree growth for all study species. Across species and sites, annual tree growth was positively related to summer season precipitation (P SP ). The responsiveness of annual growth to P SP was tightly related to species and site specific measurements of instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (WUE), suggesting that the growth of species with efficient water use is more responsive to variations in precipitation during the dry months of the year. Our findings support the importance of water availability for the growth of mountainous Mediterranean tree species and highlight that future reductions in precipitation are likely to lead to reduced tree-growth under climate change conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mark W Schwartz
Full Text Available Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1 whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2 if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3 how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.
Rountrey, Adam N; Coulson, Peter G; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Meekan, Mark
2014-08-01
Ecological modeling shows that even small, gradual changes in body size in a fish population can have large effects on natural mortality, biomass, and catch. However, efforts to model the impact of climate change on fish growth have been hampered by a lack of long-term (multidecadal) data needed to understand the effects of temperature on growth rates in natural environments. We used a combination of dendrochronology techniques and additive mixed-effects modeling to examine the sensitivity of growth in a long-lived (up to 70 years), endemic marine fish, the western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), to changes in water temperature. A multi-decadal biochronology (1952-2003) of growth was constructed from the otoliths of 56 fish collected off the southwestern coast of Western Australia, and we tested for correlations between the mean index chronology and a range of potential environmental drivers. The chronology was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the region, but common variance among individuals was low. This suggests that this species has been relatively insensitive to past variations in climate. Growth increment and age data were also used in an additive mixed model to predict otolith growth and body size later this century. Although growth was relatively insensitive to changes in temperature, the model results suggested that a fish aged 20 in 2099 would have an otolith about 10% larger and a body size about 5% larger than a fish aged 20 in 1977. Our study shows that species or populations regarded as relatively insensitive to climate change could still undergo significant changes in growth rate and body size that are likely to have important effects on the productivity and yield of fisheries. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicolas Latte
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Global change—particularly climate change, forest management, and atmospheric deposition—has significantly altered forest growing conditions in Europe. The influences of these changes on beech growth (Fagus sylvatica L. were investigated for the past 80 years in Belgium, using non-linear mixed effects models on ring-width chronologies of 149 mature and dominant beech trees (87–186 years old. The effects of the developmental stage (i.e., increasing tree size were filtered out in order to focus on time-dependent growth changes. Beech radial growth was divided into a low-frequency signal (=growth rate, mainly influenced by forest management and atmospheric deposition, and into a high-frequency variability (≈mean sensitivity, mainly influenced by climate change. Between 1930 and 2008, major long-term and time-dependent changes were highlighted. The beech growth rate has decreased by about 38% since the 1950–1960s, and growth variability has increased by about 45% since the 1970–1980s. Our results indicate that (1 before the 1980s, beech growth rate was not predominantly impacted by climate change but rather by soil alteration (i.e., soil compaction and/or nitrogen deposition; and (2 since the 1980s, climate change induced more frequent and intense yearly growth reductions that amplified the growth rate decrease. The highlighted changes were similar in the two ecoregions of Belgium, although more pronounced in the lowlands than in the uplands.
Safety climate and firefighting: Focus group results.
DeJoy, David M; Smith, Todd D; Dyal, Mari-Amanda
2017-09-01
Firefighting is a hazardous occupation and there have been numerous calls for fundamental changes in how fire service organizations approach safety and balance safety with other operational priorities. These calls, however, have yielded little systematic research. As part of a larger project to develop and test a model of safety climate for the fire service, focus groups were used to identify potentially important dimensions of safety climate pertinent to firefighting. Analyses revealed nine overarching themes. Competency/professionalism, physical/psychological readiness, and that positive traits sometimes produce negative consequences were themes at the individual level; cohesion and supervisor leadership/support at the workgroup level; and politics/bureaucracy, resources, leadership, and hiring/promotion at the organizational level. A multi-level perspective seems appropriate for examining safety climate in firefighting. Safety climate in firefighting appears to be multi-dimensional and some dimensions prominent in the general safety climate literature also seem relevant to firefighting. These results also suggest that the fire service may be undergoing transitions encompassing mission, personnel, and its fundamental approach to safety and risk. These results help point the way to the development of safety climate measures specific to firefighting and to interventions for improving safety performance. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.
Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R
2017-10-11
Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).
Influences of climate on the radial growth of lodgepole pine in Alberta
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Chhin, S.; Lieffers, V.J. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Renewable Resources; Hogg, E.H. [Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Huang, S. [Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Forest Management Branch
2008-02-15
The forests of the Cordilleran region were used to document past relationships between tree growth and climate. Radial growth and climate relationships of lodgepole pines were examined across a network of 17 sites in Alberta over a distance of 1100 km. Pine sites were selected from a permanent plot database covering the predominant latitudinal and elevational range of lodgepole pines. An average of 21 dominant and co-dominant trees were sampled in a 50 m buffer zone. Ring-width series were detrended in 3 stages using negative exponential curves, linear regression, and low frequency standardized series (LFS). Each LFS series was detrended with a cubic-smoothing spline. Autocorrelation in each series was removed via autoregressive (AR) modelling resulting in high frequency residual series. High frequency residual (HFR) site chronologies were constructed by averaging HFR series developed at each site. Primary climate variables included mean daily minimum and maximum temperatures for each month and total monthly precipitation. Relationships between the different chronology types were then examined. Results of the study demonstrated that cool and moist conditions during the later summer months led to improved radial growth levels during the following years. Warm, dry winters and warm conditions during the autumn of the year in which the ring was formed also promoted tree growth. Results suggested that climatic warming and drying have opposing effects. It was concluded that future impacts on lodgepole pine radial growth will depend on the pattern and magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation in each season. 55 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yun Zhang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multiple species is fundamental to understanding and predicting the response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climate conditions among the species are not well understood. To detect the growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e., George’s fir (Abies georgei Orr, Likiang spruce (Picea likiangensis (Franch. E.Pritz., Gaoshan pine (Pinus densata Mast. and Chinese larch (Larix potaninii Batalin at the upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. Using the dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July temperature, and current May precipitation were the common climatic factors that had consistent influences on radial growth of the four species. Temperature in the previous post-growing season (September–October and moisture conditions in the current growing season (June–August were the common climatic factors that had divergent impacts on the radial growth of the four species. Based on the predictions of climate models and our understanding of the growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand the growth response to climate change at the species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases and decreases for the four species and indirect effects of climate change on forests should be considered.
Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco
2016-04-01
Forecasted warmer and drier conditions will probably lead to reduced growth rates and decreased carbon fixation in long-term woody pools in drought-prone areas. We therefore need a better understanding of how climate stressors such as drought constrain wood formation and drive changes in wood anatomy. Drying trends could lead to reduced growth if they are more intense in spring, when radial growth rates of conifers in continental Mediterranean climates peak. Since tree species from the aforementioned areas have to endure dry summers and also cold winters, we chose two coexisting species: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill., Pinaceae) and Spanish juniper (Juniperus thuriferaL., Cupressaceae) (10 randomly selected trees per species), to analyze how growth (tree-ring width) and wood-anatomical traits (lumen transversal area, cell-wall thickness, presence of intra-annual density fluctuations-IADFs-in the latewood) responded to climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture deficit) calculated for different time intervals. Tree-ring width and mean lumen area showed similar year-to-year variability, which indicates that they encoded similar climatic signals. Wet and cool late-winter to early-spring conditions increased lumen area expansion, particularly in pine. In juniper, cell-wall thickness increased when early summer conditions became drier and the frequency of latewood IADFs increased in parallel with late-summer to early-autumn wet conditions. Thus, latewood IADFs of the juniper capture increased water availability during the late growing season, which is reflected in larger tracheid lumens. Soil water availability was one of the main drivers of wood formation and radial growth for the two species. These analyses allow long-term (several decades) growth and wood-anatomical responses to climate to be inferred at intra-annual scales, which agree with the growing patterns already described by xylogenesis approaches for the same
Group Leader Development: Effects of Personal Growth and Psychoeducational Groups
Ohrt, Jonathan H.; Robinson, E. H., III; Hagedorn, W. Bryce
2013-01-01
The purpose of this quasi-experimental study was to compare the effects of personal growth groups and psychoeducational groups on counselor education students' (n = 74) empathy and group leader self-efficacy. Additionally, we compared the degree to which participants in each group valued: (a) cohesion, (b) catharsis, and (c) insight. There were no…
Qi, Zhaohuan; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Xiuchen; Hao, Qian
2015-02-01
Forest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration of Picea schrenkiana forest growth since 1960s in the ATE of Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand-total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from the ATE between the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from the CFB. All the sampled P. schrenkiana forest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in the CFB has sped up much slower than that in the ATE. The speedup of forest growth at the ATE is mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition within the CFB might have restricted forest growth there more than that within the ATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in the ATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming-induced treeline dynamics. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Table of Policy Options for Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience
Sortable table of policy options discussed in the publication Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience, which can help local governments prepare for climate change while gaining other environmental, economic, health, and social benefits
Assessing climate change effects on European crop yields using the Crop Growth
Supit, I.; Diepen, van C.A.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Wolf, J.; Kabat, P.; Baruth, B.; Ludwig, F.
2012-01-01
Climate change impacts on potential and rainfed crop yields on the European continent were studied using output of three General Circulation Models and the Crop Growth Monitoring System in combination with a weather generator. Climate change impacts differ per crop type and per CO2 emission
Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios
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Markandya, A.; González-Eguino, M.; Criqui, P.; Mima, S.
2014-01-01
In the last decade a number of papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output by about 19 times in the 21st century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of low global GDP growth and high convergence levels in GDP per capita across countries. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation could be technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. However, that will imply higher global abatement costs relative to GDP. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact. - Highlights: • We study the implications of GDP growth and convergence on climate stabilisation. • A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used. • Low climate stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable. • Low stabilisation is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. • Convergence places pressure in terms of the required reduction in emissions
Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald
2004-01-01
Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...
Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Ribas, Montse; Gazol, Antonio; Gutierrez, E; Carrer, Marco
2018-02-15
Mediterranean climate promotes two distinct growth peaks separated by summer quiescence in trees. This bimodal pattern has been associated to favourable growing conditions during spring and autumn when mild temperatures and soil-water availability enhance cambial activity. Climatic models predict progressive warming and drying for the Mediterranean Basin, which could shorten or shift the spring and autumn growing seasons. We explored this idea by comparing two sites with different Mediterranean climate types (continental/dry and coastal/wet) and studied how climate drives the bimodal growth pattern in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis). Specifically we investigated the intra-annual changes in wood anatomy and the corresponding formation of density fluctuations (IADF). Trees on both sites were analyzed by dendrometer monitoring and by developing chronologies of wood anatomical traits. Radial-increment dynamics followed a similar bimodal pattern in both sites but coastal trees showed higher increments during the spring and autumn growth peaks, especially in autumn. The summer rest of cambium activity occurs almost one month earlier in the coastal than in the inland site. Lumen area and cell-wall thickness were significantly smaller in the continental site, while the increment rate of cell-wall thickness during an IADF event was much higher in the coastal pines. The accumulated soil moisture deficit was the main climatic constraint of tracheid enlargement in continental pines. Intra-annual density fluctuations were more frequent in the coastal trees where wood anatomy features recover to average values after such events, meanwhile inland trees presented a much lower recovery rate. Growth bimodality and the formation of density fluctuations were linked, but mild climate of the coastal site allows a longer growing season, which explains why trees in this area showed higher and more variable growth rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S
2017-10-01
Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change
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Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.
1994-01-01
IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)
Messaoud, Yassine; Chen, Han Y H
2011-02-16
Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation). As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree species, but
Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002
Ruggerone, G.T.; Nielsen, J.L.; Bumgarner, J.
2007-01-01
We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M
2017-04-01
Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.
On conjugacy growth of linear groups
Breuillard, Emmanuel; de Cornulier, Yves; Lubotzky, Alexander; Meiri, Chen
2011-01-01
We investigate the conjugacy growth of finitely generated linear groups. We show that finitely generated non-virtually-solvable subgroups of GL_d have uniform exponential conjugacy growth and in fact that the number of distinct polynomials arising as characteristic polynomials of the elements of the ball of radius n for the word metric has exponential growth rate bounded away from 0 in terms of the dimension d only.
Michael J. Case; David L. Peterson
2005-01-01
Information about the sensitivity to climate of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) is valuable because it will allow forest managers to maximize growth, better understand how carbon sequestration may change over time, and better model and predict future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examined the effects of climatic...
Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Van Aalst, M.
2006-08-01
Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current
Transformational leadership and group interaction as climate antecedents: a social network analysis.
Zohar, Dov; Tenne-Gazit, Orly
2008-07-01
In order to test the social mechanisms through which organizational climate emerges, this article introduces a model that combines transformational leadership and social interaction as antecedents of climate strength (i.e., the degree of within-unit agreement about climate perceptions). Despite their longstanding status as primary variables, both antecedents have received limited empirical research. The sample consisted of 45 platoons of infantry soldiers from 5 different brigades, using safety climate as the exemplar. Results indicate a partially mediated model between transformational leadership and climate strength, with density of group communication network as the mediating variable. In addition, the results showed independent effects for group centralization of the communication and friendship networks, which exerted incremental effects on climate strength over transformational leadership. Whereas centralization of the communication network was found to be negatively related to climate strength, centralization of the friendship network was positively related to it. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.
Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian
2017-11-14
Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Peng, Jianfeng; Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Li, Jinbao; Liu, Puxing; Zhang, Yong; Fang, Keyan
2008-08-01
Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity (MS), decreased from west to east. The first principal component (PC1) loadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 loadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.
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Cochran, Ian; Eschalier, Claire; Deheza, Mariana
2015-01-01
The integration or 'mainstreaming' of the transition to a low-carbon climate-resilient future as a prism through which to make financial decisions poses a broad number of operational challenges. This background paper for the March 31 event is drawn from the report currently underway by CDC Climat Research supported by the Group Agence Francaise de Developpement and the Group Caisse des depots entitled 'Mainstreaming Low-Carbon Climate-Resilient Growth Pathways into International Finance Institutions' Activities: Identifying standards and tools and a typology for integration into operational decision-making'. Drawing from existing studies of current practice among mainly public development finance institutions (DFIs), this paper presents three families of tools and metrics used by DFIs to integrate climate change into investment decision-making. It presents a number of examples of how institutions have mainstreamed these issues into upstream strategic and downstream assessment processes. This paper also identifies the further challenge of moving from a system of tools and indicators that focus principally on climate finance tracking - important to foster trust and progress on international cooperation - to a means of aligning activities across financial institutions and the entire economy with the transition to a low-carbon climate-resilient economic model necessary to achieve the 2 deg. C commitment. (authors)
Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands
Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta
2018-01-01
Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.
Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica
2014-11-28
Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.
Jiang, Yuan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Mingchang; Kang, Muyi; Dong, Manyu
2014-01-01
North-Central China is a region in which the air temperature has clearly increased for several decades. Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii are the most dominant co-occurring tree species within the cold coniferous forest belt ranging vertically from 1800 m to 2800 m a.s.l. in this region. Based on a tree-ring analysis of 292 increment cores sampled from 146 trees at different elevations, this study aimed to examine if the radial growth of the two species in response to climate is similar, whether the responses are consistent along altitudinal gradients and which species might be favored in the future driven by the changing climate. The results indicated the following: (1) The two species grew in different rhythms at low and high elevation respectively; (2) Both species displayed inconsistent relationships between radial growth and climate data along altitudinal gradients. The correlation between radial growth and the monthly mean temperature in the spring or summer changed from negative at low elevation into positive at high elevation, whereas those between the radial growth and the total monthly precipitation displayed a change from positive into negative along the elevation gradient. These indicate the different influences of the horizontal climate and vertical mountainous climate on the radial growth of the two species; (3) The species-dependent different response to climate in radial growth appeared mainly in autumn of the previous year. The radial growth of L. principis-rupprechtii displayed negative responses both to temperature and to precipitation in the previous September, October or November, which was not observed in the radial growth of P. meyeri. (4) The radial growth of both species will tend to be increased at high elevation and limited at low elevation, and L. principis-rupprechtii might be more favored in the future, if the temperature keeps rising.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuan Jiang
Full Text Available North-Central China is a region in which the air temperature has clearly increased for several decades. Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii are the most dominant co-occurring tree species within the cold coniferous forest belt ranging vertically from 1800 m to 2800 m a.s.l. in this region. Based on a tree-ring analysis of 292 increment cores sampled from 146 trees at different elevations, this study aimed to examine if the radial growth of the two species in response to climate is similar, whether the responses are consistent along altitudinal gradients and which species might be favored in the future driven by the changing climate. The results indicated the following: (1 The two species grew in different rhythms at low and high elevation respectively; (2 Both species displayed inconsistent relationships between radial growth and climate data along altitudinal gradients. The correlation between radial growth and the monthly mean temperature in the spring or summer changed from negative at low elevation into positive at high elevation, whereas those between the radial growth and the total monthly precipitation displayed a change from positive into negative along the elevation gradient. These indicate the different influences of the horizontal climate and vertical mountainous climate on the radial growth of the two species; (3 The species-dependent different response to climate in radial growth appeared mainly in autumn of the previous year. The radial growth of L. principis-rupprechtii displayed negative responses both to temperature and to precipitation in the previous September, October or November, which was not observed in the radial growth of P. meyeri. (4 The radial growth of both species will tend to be increased at high elevation and limited at low elevation, and L. principis-rupprechtii might be more favored in the future, if the temperature keeps rising.
Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Jones, C.
2012-12-01
Future land use and the consequent land cover change will have a significant impact on future climate through biogeophysical (albedo, surface roughness and latent heat transfer, etc.) as well as biogeochemical (greenhouse gas emissions etc.) mechanisms. One of the major determinants of the extent of land use induced land cover change is the agricultural productivity growth within the socio-economic models used for developing the RCP scenarios. There are considerable uncertainties in the size of agricultural productivity under climate change, as yields are projected to vary spatially in signal and strength. Previous climate modeling work has considered the impacts to the carbon cycle of different levels of agricultural productivity growth, but has failed to consider the biogeophysical effects of the land use induced land cover change on climate. Here we examine the climate impacts of the assumption of agricultural productivity growth and business as usual land use. The effects are considered through the biogeophysical land use induced land cover change, using the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2. The model simulations use the set biogeochemical climate forcing of the RCP 4.5 scenario, but the biogeophysical land use change specification is altered over a 100 year simulation. Simulations are run with combinations of no land use change; standard RCP 4.5 land use change; business as usual land use change; and zero agricultural productivity growth. The key effect of no agricultural productivity growth is that more cropland is required to feed the same population, necessitating cropland expansion. The expansion of cropland and consequent deforestation increases the albedo and gives an extensive cooling effect in the northern hemisphere (up to 2°C). Differences in global mean temperature between the zero agricultural productivity growth with business as usual land use change specified run and the standard RCP 4.5 run are -0.2°C by 2040 and -0.7°C by 2100. There is
Actor groups, related needs, and challenges at the climate downscaling interface
Rössler, Ole; Benestad, Rasmus; Diamando, Vlachogannis; Heike, Hübener; Kanamaru, Hideki; Pagé, Christian; Margarida Cardoso, Rita; Soares, Pedro; Maraun, Douglas; Kreienkamp, Frank; Christodoulides, Paul; Fischer, Andreas; Szabo, Peter
2016-04-01
At the climate downscaling interface, numerous downscaling techniques and different philosophies compete on being the best method in their specific terms. Thereby, it remains unclear to what extent and for which purpose these downscaling techniques are valid or even the most appropriate choice. A common validation framework that compares all the different available methods was missing so far. The initiative VALUE closes this gap with such a common validation framework. An essential part of a validation framework for downscaling techniques is the definition of appropriate validation measures. The selection of validation measures should consider the needs of the stakeholder: some might need a temporal or spatial average of a certain variable, others might need temporal or spatial distributions of some variables, still others might need extremes for the variables of interest or even inter-variable dependencies. Hence, a close interaction of climate data providers and climate data users is necessary. Thus, the challenge in formulating a common validation framework mirrors also the challenges between the climate data providers and the impact assessment community. This poster elaborates the issues and challenges at the downscaling interface as it is seen within the VALUE community. It suggests three different actor groups: one group consisting of the climate data providers, the other two groups being climate data users (impact modellers and societal users). Hence, the downscaling interface faces classical transdisciplinary challenges. We depict a graphical illustration of actors involved and their interactions. In addition, we identified four different types of issues that need to be considered: i.e. data based, knowledge based, communication based, and structural issues. They all may, individually or jointly, hinder an optimal exchange of data and information between the actor groups at the downscaling interface. Finally, some possible ways to tackle these issues are
Andrew L. Rypel
2009-01-01
The role of climate variability in the ecology of freshwater fishes is of increasing interest. However, there are relatively few tools available for examining how freshwater fish populations respond to climate variations. Here, I apply tree-ring techniques to incremental growth patterns in largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides Lacepe`de) otoliths to explore...
Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.
2017-11-01
Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, C.; Bretherton, F.
1995-01-01
The assignment for Breakout Group A was to re-visit and expand upon the plenary session discussion on climate forcings and feedbacks and to develop a set of recommendations for each of the science disciplines or activities covered within this breakout category. Working guidelines for the group included identifying: (1) what has to be done; (2) why it has to be done, i.e. who is the customer? (3) the process for remedying deficiencies and, specifically, how to leverage the activities at operational centers; and (4) priorities (recognizing that it is premature to distinguish between major systems). The science ares addressed included: greenhouse gases (GHGs); radiation budget; water vapor; aerosols; clouds; precipitation; tropospheric ozone; and solar radiation. The role of climate satellites was also noted
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Merita Stafasani
2015-06-01
clustered in the first principal component accounted 36.6% of the total variance. The HFC indicated grouping of the site chronologies in two clusters, where Belsh, Rreshen and Elbasan site chronologies were grouped in the first cluster while Kukes, Diber and Ulez in the second one, confirming the results previously provided from PCA. The dendroclimatological analyses showed that the positive moisture balance in current April and previous September was the dominant climatic factor favoring the radial growth of Q. cerris in Albania.
Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change
Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico
2017-04-01
Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat
Early kit mortality and growth in farmed mink are affected by litter size rather than nest climate.
Schou, T M; Malmkvist, J
2017-09-01
We investigated the effects of nest box climate on early mink kit mortality and growth. We hypothesised that litters in warm nest boxes experience less hypothermia-induced mortality and higher growth rates during the 1st week of life. This study included data from 749, 1-year-old breeding dams with access to nesting materials. Kits were weighed on days 1 and 7, dead kits were collected daily from birth until day 7 after birth, and nest climate was measured continuously from days 1 to 6. We tested the influences of the following daily temperature (T) and humidity (H) parameters on the number of live-born kit deaths and kit growth: T mean, T min, T max, T var (fluctuation) and H mean. The nest microclimate experienced by the kits was buffered against the ambient climate, with higher temperatures and reduced climate fluctuation. Most (77.0%) live-born kit deaths in the 1st week occurred on days 0 and 1. Seven of 15 climate parameters on days 1 to 3 had significant effects on live-born kit mortality. However, conflicting effects among days, marginal effects and late effects indicated that climate was not the primary cause of kit mortality. Five of 30 climate parameters had significant effects on kit growth. Few and conflicting effects indicated that the climate effect on growth was negligible. One exception was that large nest temperature fluctuations on day 1 were associated with reduced deaths of live-born kit (P<0.001) and increased kit growth (P=0.003). Litter size affected kit vitality; larger total litter size at birth was associated with greater risks of kit death (P<0.001) and reduced growth (P<0.001). The number of living kits in litters had the opposite effect, as kits in large liveborn litters had a reduced risk of death (P<0.001) and those with large mean litter size on days 1 to 7 had increased growth (P=0.026). Nest box temperature had little effect on early kit survival and growth, which could be due to dams' additional maternal behaviour. Therefore, we
Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor
2018-06-01
The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in
Wang, H.
2017-12-01
Seasonal differences in climatic controls of vegetation growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China Bin He1 , Haiyan Wan11 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Corresponding author: Bin He, email addresses: hebin@bnu.edu.cnPhone:+861058806506, Address: Beijing Normal University, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Email addresses of co-authors: wanghaiyan@mail.bnu.edu.cnABSTRACTLaunched in 2000, the Beiing-Tainjin Sand Source Controlling Project (BTSSCP) is an ecological restoration project intended to prevent desertification in China. Evidence from multiple sources has confirmed increases in vegetation growth in the BTSSCP region since the initiation of the project. Precipitation and related soil moisture conditions typically are considered to be the main drivers of vegetation growth in this arid region. However, by investigating the relationships between vegetation growth and corresponding climatic factors, we identified seasonal variation in the climatic constraints of vegetation growth. In spring, vegetation growth is stimulated mainly by elevated temperature, whereas precipitation is the lead driver of summer greening. In autumn, positive effects of both temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were observed. Furthermore, strong biosphere-atmosphere interactions were observed in this region. Spring warming promotes vegetation growth, but also reduces soil moisture. Summer greening has a strong cooling effect on land surface temperature. These results indicate that 1) precipitation-based projections of vegetation growth may be misleading; and 2) the ecological and environment consequences of ecological projects should be comprehensively evaluated. KEYWORDS: vegetation growth, climatic drivers, seasonal variation, BTSSCP
Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada
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Goldblum, D. [Wisconsin-Whitewater Univ., Whitewater, WI (United States). Dept. of Geography and Geology; Rigg, L.S. [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States). Dept. of Geography
2005-11-01
Recent interest in the impact that future climate change may have on forest communities can be attributed to the fact that migration of tree species has been slow with respect to past climate changes and also because of the high degree of habitat fragmentation that has occurred in the recent past. For that reason, this study examined the implications of climate change on the future of sugar maple, white spruce and balsam fir. These trees represent the 3 dominant forest species at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone in Ontario, Canada. The analysis was based on the responses of individual species to past monthly temperature and precipitation conditions as well as simulated monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the study area for the 2080s. The sensitivity of the tree species to past climate with predicted conditions for the 2080 period was also considered. In particular, tree-ring analysis was used to compare local species-specific growth responses with instrumental climate records since 1900 to determine which climate variables control growth rates of these 3 species. Present temperature and precipitation averages were compared with general circulation model (GCM) predictions of monthly temperature and monthly precipitation to evaluate the potential benefit or harm to the dominant tree species over the next 80 years. It was concluded that sugar maple may persist in the medium term up to several centuries, as existing trees pass through their natural life-span without reproductive replacement. However, with extreme climate change, over many centuries, even the sugar maple at this northern range limit might be in jeopardy. White spruce is likely to benefit less, and the dominant balsam fir is likely to experience a decrease in growth potential. These projected changes would enhance the future status of sugar maple at its northern limit and facilitate range expansion northward in response to global warming. Although the study concerns only a small area
Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gutiérrez, Emilia; González Rouco, Fidel; Gazol, Antonio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Linares, Juan Carlos; Seftigen, Kristina
2017-07-01
Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO 2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling
Climate-Induced Larch Growth Response Within the Central Siberian Permafrost Zone
Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrov, Il'ya A.
2015-01-01
Aim: estimation of larch (Larix gmelinii) growth response to current climate changes. Location: permafrost area within the northern part of Central Siberia (approximately 65.8 deg N, 98.5 deg E). Method: analysis of dendrochronological data, climate variables, drought index SPEI, GPP (gross primary production) and EVI vegetation index (both Aqua/MODIS satellite derived), and soil water content anomalies (GRACE satellite measurements of equivalent water thickness anomalies, EWTA). Results: larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with previous year August precipitation (r = 0.63), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), soil water anomalies (r = 0.79), early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), May and June drought index (r = 0.68-0.82). There are significant positive trends of TRW since late 1980s and GPP since the year 2000. Mean TRW increased by about 50%, which is similar to post-Little Ice Age warming. TRW correlated with GPP and EVI of larch stands (r = 0.68-0.69). Main conclusions: within the permafrost zone of central Siberia larch TRW growth is limited by early summer temperatures, available water from snowmelt, water accumulated within soil in the previous year, and permafrost thaw water. Water stress is one of the limiting factors of larch growth. Larch TRW growth and GPP increased during recent decades.
Water and growth: An econometric analysis of climate and policy impacts
Khan, Hassaan Furqan; Morzuch, Bernard J.; Brown, Casey M.
2017-06-01
Water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and disease cause damage to an economy through the destruction of physical capital including property and infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the interruption of economic activities, like trade and education. The question for policy makers is whether the impacts of water-related risk accrue to manifest as a drag on economic growth at a scale suggesting policy intervention. In this study, the average drag on economic growth from water-related hazards faced by society at a global level is estimated. We use panel regressions with various specifications to investigate the relationship between economic growth and hydroclimatic variables at the country-river basin level. In doing so, we make use of surface water runoff variables never used before. The analysis of the climate variables shows that water availability and water hazards have significant effects on economic growth, providing further evidence beyond earlier studies finding that precipitation extremes were at least as important or likely more important than temperature effects. We then incorporate a broad set of variables representing the areas of infrastructure, institutions, and information to identify the characteristics of a region that determine its vulnerability to water-related risks. The results identify water scarcity, governance, and agricultural intensity as the most relevant measures affecting vulnerabilities to climate variability effects.
Reed, Charlotte C; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Cooper, Leila Annie; Sala, Anna
2018-04-15
Forests sequester large amounts of carbon annually and are integral in buffering against effects of global change. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 may enhance photosynthesis and/or decrease stomatal conductance (g s ) thereby enhancing intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), having potential indirect and direct benefits to tree growth. While increasing iWUE has been observed in most trees globally, enhanced growth is not ubiquitous, possibly due to concurrent climatic constraints on growth. To investigate our incomplete understanding of interactions between climate and CO 2 and their impacts on tree physiology and growth, we used an environmental gradient approach. We combined dendrochronology with carbon isotope analysis (δ 13 C) to assess the covariation of basal area increment (BAI) and iWUE over time in lodgepole pine. Trees were sampled at 18 sites spanning two climatically distinct elevation transects on the lee and windward sides of the Continental Divide, encompassing the majority of lodgepole pine's northern Rocky Mountain elevational range. We analyzed BAI and iWUE from 1950 to 2015, and explored correlations with monthly climate variables. As expected, iWUE increased at all sites. However, concurrent growth trends depended on site climatic water deficit (CWD). Significant growth increases occurred only at the driest sites, where increases in iWUE were strongest, while growth decreases were greatest at sites where CWD has been historically lowest. Late summer drought of the previous year negatively affected growth across sites. These results suggest that increasing iWUE, if strong enough, may indirectly benefit growth at drier sites by effectively extending the growing season via reductions in g s . Strong growth decreases at high elevation windward sites may reflect increasing water stress as a result of decreasing snowpack, which was not offset by greater iWUE. Our results imply that increasing iWUE driven by decreasing g s may benefit tree growth in
Growth of and partitioning between shoot and storage root of carrot in a northern climate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. SUOJALA
2008-12-01
Full Text Available Matching the growth pattern of a vegetable cultivar with the seasonal changes in climate is a prerequisite for successful yield production in a northern climate. This paper describes the growth characteristics of two carrot cultivars in relation to climatic conditions in two years, with special reference to the factors associated with high yield. Cv. Fontana produced twice as large a leaf area and shoot weight as cv. Panther. Increased partitioning to shoot in the former cultivar also resulted in a higher root yield. Uniformity in relative growth rates during the period of analysis suggests that intervarietal differences in the shoot to root ratio and in the yield potential appear very early. Nearly half of the root weight at final harvest was gained after mid-August, when temperature and daily irradiance began to decrease. A large leaf area may ensure better utilisation of diminishing growth resources at the end of the growing season. In the more favourable growing season, 1997, plants invested more in leaf production than they did in 1996: shoot fresh and dry weights were considerably higher but leaf area was not much higher.;
Liu, B; Wang, Y; Zhu, H; Liang, E; Camarero, J J
2016-10-01
The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.
Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.
2016-10-01
The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.
Wibeck, Victoria
2014-02-01
This paper explores social representations of climate change, investigating how climate change is discussed by Swedish laypeople interacting in focus group interviews. The analysis focuses on prototypical examples and metaphors, which were key devices for objectifying climate change representations. The paper analyzes how the interaction of focus group participants with other speakers, ideas, arguments, and broader social representations shaped their representations of climate change. Climate change was understood as a global but distant issue with severe consequences. There was a dynamic tension between representations of climate change as a gradual vs. unpredictable process. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.
A.D. McGuire; R.W. Ruess; A. Lloyd; J. Yarie; J.S. Clein; G.P. Juday
2010-01-01
This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth...
Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.
2002-01-01
The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over
Climate finance, climate investors and assets for low emission development
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Collins C Ngwakwe
2015-05-01
Full Text Available This research examines the relationship between climate finance, growth in climate investors and growth in climate assets for low emission development. It also evaluates the effect of climate policy evolution on the growth of climate investors and climate assets. Adopting a positivist paradigm, the paper makes use of a quantitative research approach and applies the causal and correlational research design. The paper made use of secondary data from the World Bank Carbon Finance Unit and from the Carbon Disclosure Project (ADP. The major objective was to examine the combined effect of climate finance and climate policy on the growth of carbon investors and carbon assets for the companies in the Carbon Disclosure Project which includes the 100 JSE companies. Findings from the test reveal that the combined effect of growth in climate finance and climate policy evolution has a significant relationship with growth in climate investors and climate assets. Given this result the paper proceeded to examine if the growth in climate finance has any correlation with South Africa’s emission reduction trend. Results however indicate that South Africa’s GHG emission trend does not correlate with climate finance availability; GHG emissions in South Africa have continued to soar despite a seeming growth in climate finance. The paper reasoned that the global climate finance might not be effectively available to corporates in South Africa at the expected level of financing to initiate the expected level of climate investment to effect a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This confirms literature assertions that global climate finance might not easily be accessible, at least to entities in developing countries. In conclusion, the paper suggests the establishment of a Southern African Climate Finance pool where the public and private sector can contribute and that such pool should be made easily available to carbon investors at a cheap rate with
Group climate, personality, and self-reported aggression in incarcerated male youth
van der Helm, P.; Stams, G.J.; van Genabeek, M.; van der Laan, P.
2012-01-01
Aggression in youth prison is considered a major problem, probably interfering with treatment and rehabilitative goals, and creating an unsafe work environment for group workers. The present study examined how inmates’ personality (dispositional characteristics) and living group climate (situational
Explaining the dependence of climatic response of tree radial growth on permafrost
Bryukhanova, Marina; Benkova, Anna; von Arx, Georg; Fonti, Patrick; Simanko, Valentina; Kirdyanov, Alexander; Shashkin, Alexander
2015-04-01
In northern regions of Siberia it is infrequent to have long-term observations of the variability of soil features, phenological data, duration of the growing season, which can be used to infer the influence of the environment on tree growth and productivity. The best way to understand tree-growth and tree responses to environmental changes is to make use of mechanistic models, allowing to combine already available experiment/field data with other parameters based on biological principles of tree growth. The goal of our study is to estimate which tree species (deciduous, conifer deciduous or conifer evergreen) is more plastic under possible climate changes in permafrost zone. The studied object is located in the northern part of central Siberia, Russia (64°N, 100°E). The study plot was selected within a post-fire succession and representatives for 100 years old even aged mixed forest of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. and Betula pubescens Ehrh. with few exemplars of Spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.). To understand physiological response of larch, birch and spruce trees to climatic changes the ecological-physiological process-based model of tree photosynthesis (Benkova and Shashkin 2003) was applied. Multiparametric tree-ring chronologies were analyzed and correlated with climatic parameters over the last 77 years. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (Grant from the President of RF for Young Scientists MK-1589.2014.4).
Livshultz, Tatyana; Mead, Jerry V; Goyder, David J; Brannin, Michelle
2011-12-01
Climate change that increases mortality of plants and pollinators can create mate-finding Allee effects and thus act as a strong selective force on floral morphology. Milkweeds (Secamonoideae and Asclepiadoideae; Apocynaceae) are typically small plants of seasonally dry habitats, with pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency. Their sister group (tribe Baisseeae and Dewevrella) is mostly comprised of giant lianas of African rainforests, with pollen in monads. Comparison of the two groups motivated a new hypothesis: milkweeds evolved in the context of African aridification and the shifting of rainforest to dry forest. Pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency may have been adaptations that alleviated mate-finding Allee effects generated by high mortality during droughts. We formally tested whether milkweeds have a drier climate niche by comparing milkweeds with plesiomorphic traits (Secamonoideae) and the milkweed sister group in continental Africa. We georeferenced specimens of the milkweed sister group and Secamonoideae in continental Africa, extracted 19 climatic variables from the Worldclim model, conducted factor analysis to identify correlated suites of variables, and compared the frequency distributions of the two lineages relative to each factor. The distributions of Secamonoideae and the milkweed sister group differed significantly relative to four factors, each correlated with a distinct suite of climate parameters: (1) air temperature (Secamonoideae: cooler), (2) total and (3) summer precipitation (Secamonoideae: drier), and (4) temperature seasonality and isothermality (Secamonoideae: more seasonal and less isothermal). Secamonoideae in continental Africa inhabit drier, cooler sites than do the milkweed sister group, consistent with a shift from rainforests to dry forests in a cooling climate.
Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Raggon, Mark F.; Zima, Daniela
2010-01-01
Estimates of historical variability in river ecosystems are often lacking, but long-lived freshwater mussels could provide unique opportunities to understand past conditions in these environments. We applied dendrochronology techniques to quantify historical variability in growth-increment widths in valves (shells) of western pearlshell freshwater mussels (Margaritifera falcata). A total of 3 growth-increment chronologies, spanning 19 to 26 y in length, were developed. Growth was highly synchronous among individuals within each site, and to a lesser extent, chronologies were synchronous among sites. All 3 chronologies negatively related to instrumental records of stream discharge, while correlations with measures of water temperature were consistently positive but weaker. A reconstruction of stream discharge was performed using linear regressions based on a mussel growth chronology and the regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models based on mussel growth and PDSI yielded similar coefficients of prediction (R2Pred) of 0.73 and 0.77, respectively, for predicting out-ofsample observations. From an ecological perspective, we found that mussel chronologies provided a rich source of information for understanding climate impacts. Responses of mussels to changes in climate and stream ecosystems can be very site- and process-specific, underscoring the complex nature of biotic responses to climate change and the need to understand both regional and local processes in projecting climate impacts on freshwater species.
Quebec industry and climatic changes : Quebec Industry Working Group on Climatic Changes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2001-03-01
Global climatic change is a phenomenon greatly influenced by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity and the natural greenhouse effect necessary to sustain life on the planet. Carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere now exceed the levels prior to the industrial revolution by 31 per cent. Half of this increase occurred during the past 30 years, while the average temperature increased by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C. By using climate change models, scientists have linked this increase to the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and predict that the average temperature will rise by 1 to 3.5 degrees C during the next century with increases of 5 to 10 degrees C being felt in certain parts of Canada. In an effort to curb the emissions of carbon dioxide, the Quebec Industry Working Group on Climatic Change was created to represent different sectors of the industry, including energy, metallurgy, aluminium, cement, environment, mines, plastics, petrochemicals, pulp and paper, and manufacturing. The group worked at meeting the following objectives: (1) to examine the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gases emissions in the industrial sector, (2) to propose and evaluate measures and initiatives for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions including their cost, impact and potential timetable for implementation, (3) to identify new and promising technologies in the field of greenhouse gases reduction, (4) to identify business opportunities and risks for industry in Quebec, and (5) to recommend an implementation strategy for the Kyoto Protocol for each sector, in terms of reduction measures that would be economical and in agreement with the various plans in place at the federal, provincial and municipal levels. A total of 22 recommendations were proposed covering the entire spectrum of the mandate. 15 tabs, 2 appendices
Hess, Carsten; Niemeyer, Thomas; Fichtner, Andreas; Jansen, Kirstin; Kunz, Matthias; Maneke, Moritz; von Wehrden, Henrik; Quante, Markus; Walmsley, David; von Oheimb, Goddert; Härdtle, Werner
2018-02-01
Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Camilo Mora
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5, suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation. Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.
Gentilesca, Tiziana; Rita, Angelo; Brunetti, Michele; Giammarchi, Francesco; Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; van Noije, Twan; Tonon, Giustino; Borghetti, Marco
2018-07-01
In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long-term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (G V ) and height (G H ) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site-specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed-effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long-term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO 2 effects on G V and G H were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (N dep ) effects were repeatedly observed in G V and G H ; the positive effects of N dep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at N dep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m -2 y -1 , were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above-ground net productivity at the selected study sites. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth
2012-12-01
The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2007-01-01
This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)
Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.
Sequeira, Tiago Neves; Santos, Marcelo Serra; Magalhães, Manuela
2018-05-31
Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.
Influence of muscle groups' activation on proximal femoral growth tendency.
Yadav, Priti; Shefelbine, Sandra J; Pontén, Eva; Gutierrez-Farewik, Elena M
2017-12-01
Muscle and joint contact force influence stresses at the proximal growth plate of the femur and thus bone growth, affecting the neck shaft angle (NSA) and femoral anteversion (FA). This study aims to illustrate how different muscle groups' activation during gait affects NSA and FA development in able-bodied children. Subject-specific femur models were developed for three able-bodied children (ages 6, 7, and 11 years) using magnetic resonance images. Contributions of different muscle groups-hip flexors, hip extensors, hip adductors, hip abductors, and knee extensors-to overall hip contact force were computed. Specific growth rate for the growth plate was computed, and the growth was simulated in the principal stress direction at each element in the growth front. The predicted growth indicated decreased NSA and FA (of about [Formula: see text] over a four-month period) for able-bodied children. Hip abductors contributed the most, and hip adductors, the least, to growth rate. All muscles groups contributed to a decrease in predicted NSA ([Formula: see text]0.01[Formula: see text]-0.04[Formula: see text] and FA ([Formula: see text]0.004[Formula: see text]-[Formula: see text]), except hip extensors and hip adductors, which showed a tendency to increase the FA ([Formula: see text]0.004[Formula: see text]-[Formula: see text]). Understanding influences of different muscle groups on long bone growth tendency can help in treatment planning for growing children with affected gait.
The Relationship of Interpersonal Attraction and Attraction to Group in a Growth Group Setting.
Evans, Nancy J.
1984-01-01
Investigated the relationship of interpersonal attraction and attraction to groups. Students (N=56) participating in growth groups completed the Group Attitude Scale and individual rating scales early, midway, and late in the group. Data indicated an increasing relationship between interpersonal and group attraction throughout the life of the…
Riesz transforms and Lie groups of polynomial growth
Elst, ter A.F.M.; Robinson, D.W.; Sikora, A.
1999-01-01
Let G be a Lie group of polynomial growth. We prove that the second-order Riesz transforms onL2(G; dg) are bounded if, and only if, the group is a direct product of a compact group and a nilpotent group, in which case the transforms of all orders are bounded.
Ropars, Pascale; Angers-Blondin, Sandra; Gagnon, Marianne; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane
2017-08-01
Shrub densification has been widely reported across the circumpolar arctic and subarctic biomes in recent years. Long-term analyses based on dendrochronological techniques applied to shrubs have linked this phenomenon to climate change. However, the multi-stemmed structure of shrubs makes them difficult to sample and therefore leads to non-uniform sampling protocols among shrub ecologists, who will favor either root collars or stems to conduct dendrochronological analyses. Through a comparative study of the use of root collars and stems of Betula glandulosa, a common North American shrub species, we evaluated the relative sensitivity of each plant part to climate variables and assessed whether this sensitivity is consistent across three different types of environments in northwestern Québec, Canada (terrace, hilltop and snowbed). We found that root collars had greater sensitivity to climate than stems and that these differences were maintained across the three types of environments. Growth at the root collar was best explained by spring precipitation and summer temperature, whereas stem growth showed weak and inconsistent responses to climate variables. Moreover, sensitivity to climate was not consistent among plant parts, as individuals having climate-sensitive root collars did not tend to have climate-sensitive stems. These differences in sensitivity of shrub parts to climate highlight the complexity of resource allocation in multi-stemmed plants. Whereas stem initiation and growth are driven by microenvironmental variables such as light availability and competition, root collars integrate the growth of all plant parts instead, rendering them less affected by mechanisms such as competition and more responsive to signals of global change. Although further investigations are required to determine the degree to which these findings are generalizable across the tundra biome, our results indicate that consistency and caution in the choice of plant parts are a key
2010-04-19
... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9139-3] National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting Announcement AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency. ACTION...-person meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National Drinking Water...
2010-09-09
... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9198-8] National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting Announcement AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA... final in-person meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National...
2010-06-22
... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9165-6] National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting Announcement AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA... fourth in-person meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National...
2010-01-11
... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9101-9] National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting Announcement AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency. ACTION... meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National Drinking Water Advisory...
Climate economics in progress 2011; Climate economics in progress 2011
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
De Perthuis, Christian [Paris-Dauphine University (France); Jouvet, Pierre-Andre [Paris-Ouest University (France); Trotignon, Raphael; Simonet, Gabriela; Boutueil, Virginie [Climate Economics Chair, Paris-Dauphine University (France)
2011-10-01
Climate Economics in Progress offers a global overview of the present status of action on climate change. Drawing on the most recent data, it analyzes the development of carbon markets in Europe and other parts of the world. It also examines the conditions for including major players such as China and new sectors such as agriculture, forestry and transport in the fight against global warming. The book is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand current advances in climate control, which could pave the way for a new form of economic growth. The book brings together a group of researchers whose goal is to make the link between academic research on the economics of climate change and the implementation of operational tools, thereby allowing the climate issue to be integrated into the functioning of the real economy
Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario
2016-01-01
We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.
On the growth of rank for subgroups of finitely generated groups
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Osin, D V
1999-01-01
In [1] and [2] the functions of rank growth were independently introduced and investigated for subgroups of a finitely generated free group. In the present paper the concept of growth of rank is extended to subgroups of an arbitrary finitely generated group G, and the dependence of the asymptotic behaviour of the above functions on the choice of a finite generating set in G is studied. For a broad class of groups (which includes, in particular, the free polynilpotent groups) estimates for the growth of rank for subgroups are obtained that generalize the wellknown Baumslag-Eidel'kind result on finitely generated normal subgroups. Some problems related to the realization of arbitrary functions as functions of rank growth for subgroups of soluble groups are treated
Mathisen, Gro Ellen; Einarsen, Ståle; Jørstad, Kari; Brønnick, Kolbjørn S
2004-11-01
The present study assessed the psychometric properties and the validity of the Norwegian translation of the Team Climate Inventory (TCI). The TCI is a measure of climate for innovation within groups at work and is based on the four-factor theory of climate for innovation (West, 1990). Cronbach's alpha revealed satisfactory reliabilities and exploratory factor analysis successfully extracted the four original factors as well as a fifth factor that has also been reported in other studies (N = 195 teams from a wide range of professions). Results from confirmatory factor analysis, using a different sample (N = 106 teams from the Norwegian public postal service), suggested that the five-factor solution had the most parsimonious fit. Criterion validity was explored by correlating TCI scores from 92 post offices and 395 postal distribution teams with customer satisfaction scores. Significant positive relationships were found between three of four TCI scales and customer satisfaction.
Proposal for new climate agreements: Economic growth determines the emission quota
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kallbekken, Steffen; Tjernshaugen, Andreas
2002-01-01
Long-term obligations to curb the emission of climate gases involve economic uncertainty because it is difficult to determine the cost of future reductions. This may be the principle reason why the USA and the developing countries are reluctant to accept binding demands on their emissions of climate gases. For example, the commitments of the Kyoto Protocol were agreed upon more than ten years before they shall be put to force. Over such a long time span it is impossible to predict the development of the economy as well as the gas emissions. Usually economical development leads to increased gas emission. If a country commits itself to a quantified limit on its emission, and the economical development turns out to be much faster than predicted, then living up to the commitments may be very expensive. The same is true if the economic growth occurs in the polluting sectors to a larger degree than expected. Many heads of state thus fear that binding emission targets may restrain economic growth
Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.
Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S
2018-02-01
Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Faruk Bojaxhi
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Pinus heldreichii Christ. is a sub-endemic species occurring at tree-line locations in Kosovo and covering an area of 2500 ha. In high elevation sites radial growth is mainly controlled by low temperatures. The main purpose of this study was the analysis of radial growth of P. heldreichii and its response to local climate conditions. Materials and Methods: Research sites comprise of three high elevation stands of P. heldreichii with specific site conditions. Core samples were collected from 98 healthy dominant and co-dominant trees at breast height using increment borer. They were prepared and cross-dated using standard dendrochronological methods, while tree-ring widths were measured to the nearest 0.001 mm using the TSAP software. The ARSTAN program was used to standardize the tree-ring widths and to calculate dendrochronological statistical parameters. The growth-climate relationship was investigated using bootstrapped correlation function analysing the residual chronologies of each sampled site as a dependent variable and the climatic data from May of the (n-1 year up to the October of the n year for the common period 1951-2013 as an independent variable. Results: The length of Bosnian pine chronologies ranged from 175 to 541 years. All chronologies had high values of first-order autocorrelation indicating that radial growth of P. heldreichii is affected by the climate conditions of the previous growing year. Koritnik chronology had the highest values of the mean sensitivity due to the influence of drought stress. This conclusion is also supported by the result of growth-climate relationship where radial growth is negatively correlated with June temperatures and positively associated with July and August precipitation. We found that radial growth of young trees from Koritnik site is limited by the combined effect of temperatures and summer drought stress. In high elevation sites, temperature is expected to control the
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eastaugh, Chris S.; Potzelsberger, Elisabeth; Hasenaueur, Hubert
2011-03-15
The purpose of this study is to determine if the climate change has had an apparent impact in Austrian forests. This research has been conducted on Norway spruce forests as this is the predominant species in Austria. Growth data between regions which have different temperature and precipitation trendsw was then compared, with results showing increased productivity in all regions thus implying that growth of the forest is driven by other factors than climate. This conclusion is consistent with previous studies supporting that forest growth is mainly driven by increasing nitrogen deposition.
Gimeno, Teresa E; Camarero, J Julio; Granda, Elena; Pías, Beatriz; Valladares, Fernando
2012-03-01
Juniperus thurifera L. is an endemic conifer of the western Mediterranean Basin where it is subjected to a severe climatic stress characterized by low winter temperatures and summer drought. Given the trend of increased warming-induced drought stress in this area and the climatic sensitivity of this species, we expect a negative impact of climate change on growth and ecophysiological performance of J. thurifera in the harsh environments where it dominates. To evaluate this, we measured long- and short-term radial growth using dendrochronology, photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in males, females and juveniles in three sites in Central Spain. Climate was monitored and completed with historical records. Mean annual temperature has increased +0.2 °C per decade in the study area, and the main warming trends corresponded to spring (+0.2 °C per decade) and summer (+0.3 °C per decade). Radial growth and maximum photosynthesis peaked in spring and autumn. Positive photosynthetic rates were maintained all year long, albeit at reduced rates in winter and summer. Radial growth was enhanced by wet conditions in the previous autumn and by warm springs and high precipitation in summer of the year of tree-ring formation. Cloud cover during the summer increased growth, while cloudy winters led to impaired carbon gain and reduced growth in the long term. We argue that maintenance of carbon gain under harsh conditions (low winter temperatures and dry summer months) and plastic xylogenesis underlie J. thurifera's ability to profit from changing climatic conditions such as earlier spring onset and erratic summer rainfall. Our results highlight that not only the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of climate change on growth and persistence of Mediterranean trees is species specific.
Climate Reconstruction on the Growth of Teak in Umphang Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pichit Lumyai
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Teak is an example of proxy data that can be used to indirectly deduce past climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between teak growth and climate data in western Thailand. Dendrochronological techniques were used to analyze 52 sample cores from Umphang Wildlife Sanctuary. The crossdated ring width data could be extended back 127 years (1886-2012. The relationship between ring-width index and climatic data indicated a positive correlation (p<0.01 with the current year total rainfall in March and June. Thus, only March and June data were used to reconstruct the annual ring width index which indicated a downward trend in the reconstructed rainfall. Considering the March and June average total rainfall, a wet period occurred in 1887-1895 and this gradually decreased to a stable pattern in 1927-1945 with a further decline to another stable level in 1957-1964. Similarly, the dry periods occurring in 1896-1926, 1946-1955, 1965-1981 and 1982-2012 could explain the high fluctuations in rainfall. Periods of 2.2-2.7 and 25.2 years were found to be common with the variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In conclusion, teak growth information can be used to monitor global warming events.
Hogg, Edward H; Michaelian, Michael; Hook, Trisha I; Undershultz, Michael E
2017-12-01
Since 2001, climatic conditions have been notably drier than normal across large areas of the western Canadian interior, leading to widespread impacts on the forests of this region. This poses a major concern for the future, given climate change projections for continued warming and drying. We conducted tree-ring analysis in 75 pure stands of white spruce (Picea glauca) across Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan to examine the effects of recent climatic drying on the growth of this important boreal tree species. Allometric equations were used to calculate annual growth in aboveground tree biomass (G BM ) from ring width measurements. Results showed an increasing trend in G BM from the 1960s to the 1990s, followed by a sharp decline during the severe drought of 2001-2002. Of the 75 stands, only 18 recovered sufficiently to cause an increase in mean G BM from the predrought decade of 1991-2000 to the subsequent decade of 2001-2010. The remaining 57 stands exhibited a decline in mean G BM between these decades. Climatic drying was a major cause of the growth decline, as shown by the significant stand-level relationship between percentage change in decadal mean G BM and the change in decadal mean values of a climate moisture index from 1991-2000 to 2001-2010. Subsequent analyses of boreal stands sampled across Alberta during 2015 revealed that white spruce growth had declined even further as drought conditions intensified during 2014-2015. Overall, there was a 38% decrease in mean G BM between 1997 and 2015, but surprisingly, the percentage decrease was not significantly different for young, productive stands compared with older, less productive stands. Thus, stand ageing cannot explain the observed decline in white spruce growth during the past quarter century, suggesting that these forests are at risk if the trend towards more frequent, severe drought continues in the region. © 2017 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology ©2017 John Wiley
Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto
2016-01-01
As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth
Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto
2016-06-01
As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses
Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adriana Galderisi
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2007-07-01
This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)
Climate is a stronger driver of tree and forest growth rates than soil and disturbance
Toledo, M.; Poorter, L.; Peña-Claros, M.; Alarcón, A.; Balcázar, J.; Leaño, C.; Licona, J.C.; Llanque, O.; Vroomans, V.; Zuidema, P.; Bongers, F.
2011-01-01
1. Essential resources such as water, nutrients and light vary over space and time and plant growth rates are expected to vary accordingly. We examined the effects of climate, soil and logging disturbances on diameter growth rates at the tree and stand level, using 165 1-ha permanent sample plots
Couralet, C.; Sterck, F.J.; Sass-Klaassen, U.; Acker, Van J.; Beekman, H.
2010-01-01
Basic knowledge of the relationships between tree growth and environmental variables is crucial for understanding forest dynamics and predicting vegetation responses to climate variations. Trees growing in tropical areas with a clear seasonality in rainfall often form annual growth rings. In the
Maize growth and yield in Peshawar under changing climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shah, A.; Akmal, M.; Asim, M.
2012-01-01
Global climate change is consequence of accumulating greenhouse gases (Carbon) at lower atmosphere which might affects crops growth and yield. Maize is an important summer cereals, grown on considerable area in Pakistan every year. We, therefore, study the delay sowing response with changing climate on maize. Field experiment was conducted at Agronomy Research Farm, Agricultural University Peshawar, Pakistan in a randomized complete block design. Sowing was done from June 8 to July 24, 2010 with ten days intervals. Mazie (cv. Azam) was planted in rows at 0.75 m distance in NS orientations. Crop was raised under the uniform recommended cultural practices. Data regarding days to emergence, tasseling and maturity showed a consecutive decrease when so wing was delayed form June 08 onwards. However, the crop life cycle (i.e. vegetative and reproductive durations) initially remained uniform but expanded for late sowing dates (July). Delay sowing showed an increase in the leaf area index with an abrupt decline for the late sown crop. Nonetheless, plant stand at harvest remained static during the growth for all sowing dates. A stable to moderate reduction was noticed in ear length (cm) when sowings was delayed from Jun 08 onwards. Grain rows cob/-1 did not influence by the delay sowing in the season. Moreover, delay sowing did not show any significant (P<0.05) change for the grain number. However, thousand grains weight was initially remained stable but declined (P<0.05) by delay in sowing. Biological yield, dry matter and grains yield (g m/sup -2/) revealed almost a similar decreasing trend when sowing was delayed. Dry matter to grain yield relationship was linear (r/sup 2/ = 0.95) and revealed a mean loss of 1.65 g m/sup 2/ when sowing delayed from June 08 to July 24 in the season. Radiation use efficiency (RUE), the growth function, was also declined by the delay in sowing. We inferred that losses in leaf area indices, ear length and grain weights were basis of the
Relating annual increments of the endangered Blanding's turtle plastron growth to climate.
Richard, Monik G; Laroque, Colin P; Herman, Thomas B
2014-05-01
This research is the first published study to report a relationship between climate variables and plastron growth increments of turtles, in this case the endangered Nova Scotia Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii). We used techniques and software common to the discipline of dendrochronology to successfully cross-date our growth increment data series, to detrend and average our series of 80 immature Blanding's turtles into one common chronology, and to seek correlations between the chronology and environmental temperature and precipitation variables. Our cross-dated chronology had a series intercorrelation of 0.441 (above 99% confidence interval), an average mean sensitivity of 0.293, and an average unfiltered autocorrelation of 0.377. Our master chronology represented increments from 1975 to 2007 (33 years), with index values ranging from a low of 0.688 in 2006 to a high of 1.303 in 1977. Univariate climate response function analysis on mean monthly air temperature and precipitation values revealed a positive correlation with the previous year's May temperature and current year's August temperature; a negative correlation with the previous year's October temperature; and no significant correlation with precipitation. These techniques for determining growth increment response to environmental variables should be applicable to other turtle species and merit further exploration.
School climate and bullying victimization: a latent class growth model analysis.
Gage, Nicholas A; Prykanowski, Debra A; Larson, Alvin
2014-09-01
Researchers investigating school-level approaches for bullying prevention are beginning to discuss and target school climate as a construct that (a) may predict prevalence and (b) be an avenue for school-wide intervention efforts (i.e., increasing positive school climate). Although promising, research has not fully examined and established the social-ecological link between school climate factors and bullying/peer aggression. To address this gap, we examined the association between school climate factors and bullying victimization for 4,742 students in Grades 3-12 across 3 school years in a large, very diverse urban school district using latent class growth modeling. Across 3 different models (elementary, secondary, and transition to middle school), a 3-class model was identified, which included students at high-risk for bullying victimization. Results indicated that, for all students, respect for diversity and student differences (e.g., racial diversity) predicted within-class decreases in reports of bullying. High-risk elementary students reported that adult support in school was a significant predictor of within-class reduction of bullying, and high-risk secondary students report peer support as a significant predictor of within-class reduction of bullying. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guang Xu
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Understanding how the dynamics of vegetation growth respond to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is critical to projecting future ecosystem dynamics and the adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, we investigated vegetated growth dynamics (annual productivity, seasonality and the minimum amount of vegetated cover in China and their relations with climatic factors during 1982–2011, using the updated Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS third generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset and climate data acquired from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. Major findings are as follows: (1 annual mean NDVI over China significantly increased by about 0.0006 per year from 1982 to 2011; (2 of the vegetated area in China, over 33% experienced a significant positive trend in vegetation growth, mostly located in central and southern China; about 21% experienced a significant positive trend in growth seasonality, most of which occurred in northern China (>35°N; (3 changes in vegetation growth dynamics were significantly correlated with air temperature and precipitation (p < 0.001 at a region scale; (4 at the country scale, changes in NDVI was significantly and positively correlated with annual air temperature (r = 0.52, p < 0.01 and not associated with annual precipitation (p > 0.1; (5 of the vegetated area, about 24% showed significant correlations between annual mean NDVI and air temperature (93% positive and remainder negative, and 12% showed significant correlations of annual mean NDVI with annual precipitation (65% positive and 35% negative. The spatiotemporal variations in vegetation growth dynamics were controlled primarily by temperature and secondly by precipitation. Vegetation growth was also affected by human activities; and (6 monthly NDVI was significantly correlated with the
Hurricanes and Climate: the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes
Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina;
2015-01-01
While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. The idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR, combined with results from other model simulations, have suggested relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increases versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate a decrease in numbers. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.
Kaduvettoor, Anju; O'Shaughnessy, Tiffany; Mori, Yoko; Beverly, Clyde, III; Weatherford, Ryan D.; Ladany, Nicholas
2009-01-01
This study examines the relationship between multicultural events in group supervision, group climate, and supervisee multicultural competence using a mixed qualitative/quantitative design. The discovery-oriented approach yielded 196 helpful and hindering multicultural events among 136 participants. The most common events included multicultural…
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Natalini, F.; Alejano, R.; Vazquez-Pique, J.; Pardos, M.; Calama, R.; Büntgen, Ulf
2016-01-01
Roč. 40, dec (2016), s. 72-84 ISSN 1125-7865 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : tree-rings * genetically depauperate * mediterranean climate * phenotypic plasticity * cambial activity * fagus-sylvatica * spain * drought * widespread * halepensis * Climate change * Dendroecology * Growth plasticity * Mediterranean * Tree rings * Drought Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.259, year: 2016
A Discrete Heterogeneous-Group Economic Growth Model with Endogenous Leisure Time
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei-Bin Zhang
2009-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a one-sector multigroup growth model with endogenous labor supply in discrete time. Proposing an alternative approach to behavior of households, we examine the dynamics of wealth and income distribution in a competitive economy with capital accumulation as the main engine of economic growth. We show how human capital levels, preferences, and labor force of heterogeneous households determine the national economic growth, wealth, and income distribution and time allocation of the groups. By simulation we demonstrate, for instance, that in the three-group economy when the rich group's human capital is improved, all the groups will economically benefit, and the leisure times of all the groups are reduced but when any other group's human capital is improved, the group will economically benefit, the other two groups economically lose, and the leisure times of all the groups are increased.
Zhang, Xing-Liang; He, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Li, Na
2011-12-01
Based on the theory and methodology of dendrochronology, the tree ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Mangui of Great Xing' an Mountains was developed, and the relationships between the standardized tree ring width chronology and local climate factors (temperature and precipitation) as well as the effects of climate factors on the P. sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth were analyzed. In this region, the mean monthly temperature in April-August of current year was the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the increasing mean monthly temperature from April to August had negative effects to the radial growth. The simulation of the variations of the radial growth by the mean monthly temperature change in April-August showed that the radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica would present a declining trend accompanied with the warmer and drier regional climate condition.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG
2015-01-01
In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Diana Perkins
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Due to predicted climate change, it is important to know to what extent trees and forests will be impacted by chronic and episodic drought stress. As oaks play an important role in European forestry, this study focuses on the growth response of sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt. Liebl. and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur (L. under contrasting climatic conditions. Analyses cover both site conditions of their natural occurrence (Southern Germany and Northeast Italy and site conditions beyond their natural range (South Africa. The sites beyond their natural range represent possible future climate conditions. Tree-ring series from three different sites were compared and analysed using dendrochronological methods. The long-term growth development of oak trees appears to be similar across the sites, yet the growth level over time is higher in the drier and warmer climate than in the temperate zone. When compared with previous growth periods, growth models reveal that oak trees grew more than expected during the last decades. A recent setback in growth can be observed, although growth is still higher than the model predicts. By focusing on the short-term reactions of the trees, distinct drought events and periods were discovered. In each climatic region, similar growth reactions developed after drought periods. A decline in growth rate occurred in the second or third year after the drought event. Oaks in South Africa are currently exposed to a warmer climate with more frequent drought events. This climatic condition is a future prediction also for Europe. In view of this climate change, we discuss the consequences of the long- and short- term growth behaviour of oaks grown in the climate of South Africa for a tree species selection that naturally occurs in Europe.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Ponočná, T.; Spyt, B.; Kaczka, R. J.; Büntgen, Ulf; Treml, V.
2016-01-01
Roč. 30, č. 5 (2016), s. 1633-1646 ISSN 0931-1890 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : abies l. karst. * tree-ring chronologies * basal area increment * radial growth * forest growth * altitudinal gradient * sudetes mountains * northern europe * tatra mountains * alps * climate change * mountain forests * picea abies * radial growth * rree rings * trend preservation Subject RIV: GK - Forestry Impact factor: 1.842, year: 2016
van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.
2012-06-01
Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated
Group climate and empathy in a sample of incarcerated boys
van der Helm, G.H.P.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Stel, J.C.; van Langen, M.A.M.; van der Laan, P.H.
2012-01-01
This study examined the influence of group climate on empathy in a Dutch youth correctional facility in a sample of 59 incarcerated delinquent boys. Higher levels of empathy have been shown to be associated with less delinquent and more prosocial behaviour and may therefore be vital for successful
Group climate and empathy in a sample of incarcerated boys
Peer van der Helm PhD; G.J.J.M. Stams; J.C. van der Stel; M.A.M. van Langen; P.H. van der Laan
2011-01-01
The present study examined the influence of group climate on empathy in a Dutch youth correctional facility in a sample of 59 incarcerated delinquent boys. Higher levels of empathy have been shown to be associated with less delinquent and more prosocial behaviour, and may therefore be vital for
Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing
2015-01-01
By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.
Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain
Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.
2017-01-01
European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral
The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced-Growth-Equivalent: An Application of FUND
David Anthoff; Richard S. J. Tol
2008-01-01
The Stern Review added balanced growth equivalents (BGE) to the economic climate change research agenda. We first propose rigorous definitions of the BGE for multiple regions and under uncertainty. We show that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income. For comparable welfare economic assumptions as the Stern Review, we calculate lower changes in BGE between a business as usual scenario and one without climate impacts with the model FUND than the Stern ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Erfurt, Jytte
To access how multiple stressors affect the water quantity and quality and stream ecology at catchment scale under various management and climate change scenarios, we implemented macrophyte growth modules for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2012 (SWAT). The macrophyte growth module...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stocker, Thomas F.; Qin, Dahe; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Tignor, Melinda M.B.; Allen, Simon K.; Boschung, Judith; Nauels, Alexander; Xia, Yu; Bex, Vincent; Midgley, Pauline M.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Allen, Simon K.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Breon, Francois-Marie; Church, John A.; Cubasch, Ulrich; Emori, Seita; Forster, Piers; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Jansen, Eystein; Kirtman, Ben; Knutti, Reto; Kumar Kanikicharla, Krishna; Lemke, Peter; Marotzke, Jochem; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Meehl, Gerald A.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Piao, Shilong; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Dahe, Qin; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Randall, David; Rhein, Monika; Rojas, Maisa; Sabine, Christopher; Shindell, Drew; Stocker, Thomas F.; Talley, Lynne D.; Vaughan, David G.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Allen, Myles R.; Boucher, Olivier; Chambers, Don; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Peter U.; Collins, Matthew; Comiso, Josefino C.; Vasconcellos de Menezes, Viviane; Feely, Richard A.; Fichefet, Thierry; Fiore, Arlene M.; Flato, Gregory; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hezel, Paul J.; Johnson, Gregory C.; Kaser, Georg; Kattsov, Vladimir; Kennedy, John; Klein Tank, Albert M.G.; Le Quere, Corinne; Myhre, Gunnar; Osborn, Timothy; Payne, Antony J.; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Prather, Michael; Rintoul, Stephen R.; Rogelj, Joeri; Rusticucci, Matilde; Schulz, Michael; Sedlacek, Jan; Stott, Peter A.; Sutton, Rowan; Thorne, Peter W.; Wuebbles, Donald
2013-10-01
The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive scientific and technical literature. The assessment considers new evidence of past, present and projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleo-climate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current understanding of the science of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to policy-makers. In this report, Working Group I has extended coverage of future climate change compared to earlier reports by assessing near-term projections and predictability as well as long-term projections and irreversibility in two separate chapters. Following the decisions made by the Panel during the scoping and outline approval, a set of new scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, are used across all three Working Groups for projections of climate change over the 21. century. The coverage of regional information in the Working Group I report is expanded by specifically assessing climate phenomena such as monsoon systems and their relevance to future climate change in the regions. The Working Group I Report is an assessment, not a review or a text book of climate science, and is based on the published scientific and technical literature available up to 15 March 2013. Underlying all aspects of the report is a
Bogaert, S.; Boone, Chr.; van Witteloostuijn, A.
2012-01-01
We investigate the moderating role of an individual's social value orientation (which refers to self- versus other-regarding preferences) and of climate strength (which refers to the extent of agreement among group members on group norms and values) on the relationship between work group cooperative
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nadeem, M.; Khan, M.A.; Riaz, A.
2011-01-01
Exotic cultivars of hybrid roses respond uncertainly to new habitat. It is necessary to explore the potential of the introduced cultivars to judge the suitability in a new habitat. In the present study, nine Rosa hybrida cultivars including Autumn Sunset, Ice Berg, Paradise, Angel Face, Louise Odier, Casino, Grand Margina, Handel and Gruss-an-Teplitz were evaluated for growth and yield attributed under the climatic conditions of Faisalabad. Results indicated that there was decreasing trend in the growth and flowering of the bushes as the temperature increased above 32 degree C and humidity decreased to 29 %. Number of flowers per bush and diameter of flower decreased as the temperature increased and humidity decreased in contrast to increment in height of the plant and num ber of primary branches per plant in succeeding months. Interaction between yield traits and months was also significant. Overall, significant variations were observed in each cultivar for length and number of petals per flower, number of prickles, fragrance, flower persistence life and color, bush shape and overall performance with respect to climatic conditions of Faisalabad. It is concluded that the cultivars 'Autumn Sunset' and Gruss-an-Teplitz performed better in climatic conditions of Faisalabad. (author)
Performance Agent Groups in the Promotion of Smart Economic Growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krūzmētra Maiga
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Any country is interested in economic growth regardless of its development level in any period; yet an increasingly important role in defining growth is played by the term ‘smart growth’. The EU development strategy until 2020 defines smart growth as a strategic objective. Smart growth does not take place automatically. It is affected both by the condition of the economic, social and natural environments and by subjective factors - the competence of performance agents. The present research distinguished three groups of rural space and regional performance agents: national institutions, local governments and communities of residents of the territories examined by the research. The research summarised the opinions of experts (Latvia n=171; Lithuania n=163 from the south-eastern part of Latvia and the north-eastern part of Lithuania with the purpose of assessing the contribution of the performance agent groups to the promotion of smart economic growth. The research aimed to identify the positive indications of the contribution made by each performance agent group as well as the largest problems affecting the promotion of smart economic growth in each country. Despite the fact that the sample groups were not representative (did not reflect the views of the entire population, the obtained survey data and the results of this analysis provided insight into the performance agents’ action ratings from the bottom-up position and allowed comparing the situations in Latvia and Lithuania. The research has become an urgent task in project No. 5.2.3 “Rural and Regional Development Processes and Opportunities in Latvia in the Context of Knowledge Economy” in National Research Programme 5.2. "Economic Transformation, Smart Growth, Governance and Legal Framework for the State and Society for Sustainable Development - a New Approach to the Creation of a Sustainable Learning Community: EKOSOC-LV”.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2007-07-01
This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)
Pearce, W; Holmberg, K; Hellsten, I.; Nerlich, B.
2014-01-01
In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saskia L. van de Gevel
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Drought and mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins outbreaks have affected millions of hectares of high-elevation conifer forests in the Northern Rocky Mountains during the past century. Little research has examined the distinction between mountain pine beetle outbreaks and climatic influence on radial growth in endangered whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm. ecosystems. We used a new method to explore divergent periods in whitebark pine radial growth after mountain pine beetle outbreaks across six sites in western Montana. We examined a 100-year history of mountain pine beetle outbreaks and climate relationships in whitebark pine radial growth to distinguish whether monthly climate variables or mountain pine outbreaks were the dominant influence on whitebark pine growth during the 20th century. High mortality of whitebark pines was caused by the overlapping effects of previous and current mountain pine beetle outbreaks and white pine blister rust infection. Wet conditions from precipitation and snowpack melt in the previous summer, current spring, and current summer benefit whitebark pine radial growth during the following growing season. Whitebark pine radial growth and climate relationships were strongest in sites less affected by the mountain pine beetle outbreaks or anthropogenic disturbances. Whitebark pine population resiliency should continue to be monitored as more common periods of drought will make whitebark pines more susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack and to white pine blister rust infection.
Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen
2017-06-01
Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexandra Lutz
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.
Brienen, R.J.W.; Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Zuidema, P.A.; Martínez- Ramos, M.
2010-01-01
Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate-growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. Lyu
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Latitudinal and altitudinal gradients can be utilized to forecast the impact of climate change on forests. To improve the understanding of how these gradients impact forest dynamics, we tested two hypotheses: (1 the change of the tree growth–climate relationship is similar along both latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, and (2 the time periods during which climate affects growth the most occur later towards higher latitudes and altitudes. To address this, we utilized tree-ring data from a latitudinal gradient in Finland and from two altitudinal gradients on the Tibetan Plateau. We analysed the latitudinal and altitudinal growth patterns in tree rings and investigated the growth–climate relationship of trees by correlating ring-width index chronologies with climate variables, calculating with flexible time windows, and using daily-resolution climate data. High latitude and altitude plots showed higher correlations between tree-ring chronologies and growing season temperature. However, the effects of winter temperature showed contrasting patterns for the gradients. The timing of the highest correlation with temperatures during the growing season at southern sites was approximately 1 month ahead of that at northern sites in the latitudinal gradient. In one out of two altitudinal gradients, the timing for the strongest negative correlation with temperature at low-altitude sites was ahead of treeline sites during the growing season, possibly due to differences in moisture limitation. Mean values and the standard deviation of tree-ring width increased with increasing mean July temperatures on both types of gradients. Our results showed similarities of tree growth responses to increasing seasonal temperature between latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. However, differences in climate–growth relationships were also found between gradients due to differences in other factors such as moisture conditions. Changes in the timing of the most
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Rocha, Adrian; Calvin, Katherine V.; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L.
2014-01-01
How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.
Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.
2016-12-01
Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario
Turner, Isobel; Reynolds, Katherine J; Lee, Eunro; Subasic, Emina; Bromhead, David
2014-09-01
The present study concerns longitudinal research on bullying perpetration and peer victimization. A focus is on school factors of school climate (academic support, group support) and school identification (connectedness or belonging), which are conceptualized as related but distinct constructs. Analysis of change on these factors as well as individual well-being across time contributes to understanding bullying behavior. Latent growth modeling was employed to examine the predictors of anxiety, depression, 2 school climate factors and school identification in understanding change in physical and verbal bullying behavior. The sample included 492 Australian school students (means age 15 years, 53.5% male) in Grades 7 to 10 who completed measures over 3 years. Academic support and group support were the strongest predictors of change in bullying and victimization. Positive change in school identification also predicted a decrease in bullying behavior over time. An increase in depression or anxiety across time predicted an increase in rates of both bullying and victimization over time. Future research should continue to examine the complex relationship between individual-psychological and social-psychological variables in impacting on incidence of school-based bullying. On a practical note, school-based intervention programs may benefit from an approach that aims to target the school climate, social identity with the school, and promote individual psychological well-being. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Birk, Thomas
2014-01-01
aims at critically re-assessing this view by placing climate in the context of a range of other internal and external stressors affecting local livelihoods, including population growth, inadequate land use practices, and lack of economic potential, as well as external factors such as poorly developed...
Laura P. Leites; Andrew P. Robinson; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; John D. Marshall; Nicholas L. Crookston
2012-01-01
Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach,...
Climate economics in progress 2011
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
De Perthuis, Christian; Jouvet, Pierre-Andre; Trotignon, Raphael; Simonet, Gabriela; Boutueil, Virginie
2011-01-01
Climate Economics in Progress offers a global overview of the present status of action on climate change. Drawing on the most recent data, it analyzes the development of carbon markets in Europe and other parts of the world. It also examines the conditions for including major players such as China and new sectors such as agriculture, forestry and transport in the fight against global warming. The book is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand current advances in climate control, which could pave the way for a new form of economic growth. The book brings together a group of researchers whose goal is to make the link between academic research on the economics of climate change and the implementation of operational tools, thereby allowing the climate issue to be integrated into the functioning of the real economy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guo Cheng
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two “Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V” vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012. The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3′5′-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of
Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Freshwater Resources of Lamu Island, Kenya
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Cornelius Okello
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand. The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the “no industrial development” population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m3 daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m3 by 2050 according to the “LAPSSET development” projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the “no industrial development” population scenario, whereas for the “LAPSSET development projection” population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028. The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES for the “no industrial development”, while the impact is expected to be similar for the “LAPSSET development”, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.
Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen
2014-09-02
Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes
Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof
2017-10-01
Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide-ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short- and long-term tree growth responses, focusing on among-tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among-tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth-climate relationships. We compiled tree-ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species ( Larix decidua , Picea abies , Pinus cembra , and Pinus mugo ) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among-tree variability, we employed information-theoretic model selections based on linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long-term trends in ring-width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among-tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall ( L. decidua ) and current year's spring ( L. decidua , P. abies ). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L. decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P. abies , P. cembra , and P. mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree
Kevin Ford; Connie Harrington; Sheel Bansal; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair
2016-01-01
Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm...
Eastaugh, Chris S; Pötzelsberger, Elisabeth; Hasenauer, Hubert
2011-03-01
The aim of this paper is to determine whether a detectable impact of climate change is apparent in Austrian forests. In regions of complex terrain such as most of Austria, climatic trends over the past 50 years show marked geographic variability. As climate is one of the key drivers of forest growth, a comparison of growth characteristics between regions with different trends in temperature and precipitation can give insights into the impact of climatic change on forests. This study uses data from several hundred climate recording stations, interpolated to measurement sites of the Austrian National Forest Inventory (NFI). Austria as a whole shows a warming trend over the past 50 years and little overall change in precipitation. The warming trends, however, vary considerably across certain regions and regional precipitation trends vary widely in both directions, which cancel out on the national scale These differences allow the delineation of 'climatic change zones' with internally consistent climatic trends that differ from other zones. This study applies the species-specific adaptation of the biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) across a range of Austrian climatic change zones, using input data from a number of national databases. The relative influence of extant climate change on forest growth is quantified, and compared with the far greater impact of non-climatic factors. At the national scale, climate change is found to have negligible effect on Norway spruce productivity, due in part to opposing effects at the regional level. The magnitudes of the modeled non-climatic influences on aboveground woody biomass increment increases are consistent with previously reported values of 20-40 kg of added stem carbon sequestration per kilogram of additional nitrogen deposition, while climate responses are of a magnitude difficult to detect in NFI data.
Group climate in the voice therapy of patients with Parkinson's Disease.
Diaféria, Giovana; Madazio, Glaucya; Pacheco, Claudia; Takaki, Patricia Barbarini; Behlau, Mara
2017-09-04
To verify the impact that group dynamics and coaching strategies have on the PD patients voice, speech and communication, as well as the group climate. 16 individuals with mild to moderate dysarthria due to the PD were divided into two groups: the CG (8 patients), submitted to traditional therapy with 12 regular therapy sessions plus 4 additional support sessions; and the EG (8 patients), submitted to traditional therapy with 12 regular therapy sessions plus 4 sessions with group dynamics and coaching strategies. The Living with Dysarthria questionnaire (LwD), the self-evaluation of voice, speech and communication, and the perceptual-auditory analysis of the vocal quality were assess in 3 moments: pre-traditional therapy (pre); post-traditional therapy (post 1); and post support sessions/coaching strategies (post 2); in post 1 and post 2 moments, the Group Climate Questionnaire (GCQ) was also applied. CG and EG showed an improvement in the LwD from pre to post 1 and post 2 moments. Voice self-evaluation was better for the EG - when pre was compared with post 2 and when post 1 was compared with post 2 - ranging from regular to very good; both groups presented improvement in the communication self-evaluation. The perceptual-auditory evaluation of the vocal quality was better for the EG in the post 1 moment. No difference was found for the GCQ; however, the EG presented lower avoidance scores in post 2. All patients showed improvement in the voice, speech and communication self-evaluation; EG showed lower avoidance scores, creating a more collaborative and propitious environment for speech therapy.
Environmental effects on growth phenology of co-occurring Eucalyptus species.
Rawal, Deepa S; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R; Aponte, Cristina; Nitschke, Craig R
2014-05-01
Growth is one of the most important phenological cycles in a plant's life. Higher growth rates increase the competitive ability, survival and recruitment and can provide a measure of a plant's adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. This study identified the growth relationship of six Eucalyptus species to variations in temperature, soil moisture availability, photoperiod length and air humidity over 12 months. The six species represent two naturally co-occurring groups of three species each representing warm-dry and the cool-moist sclerophyll forests, respectively. Warm-dry eucalypts were found to be more tolerant of higher temperatures and lower air humidity than the cool-moist eucalypts. Within groups, species-specific responses were detected with Eucalyptus microcarpa having the widest phenological niche of the warm-dry species, exhibiting greater resistance to high temperature and lower air humidity. Temperature dependent photoperiodic responses were exhibited by all the species except Eucalyptus tricarpa and Eucalyptus sieberi, which were able to maintain growth as photoperiod shortened but temperature requirements were fulfilled. Eucalyptus obliqua exhibited a flexible growth rate and tolerance to moisture limitation which enables it to maintain its growth rate as water availability changes. The wider temperature niche exhibited by E. sieberi compared with E. obliqua and Eucalyptus radiata may improve its competitive ability over these species where winters are warm and moisture does not limit growth. With climate change expected to result in warmer and drier conditions in south-east Australia, the findings of this study suggest all cool-moist species will likely suffer negative effects on growth while the warm-dry species may still maintain current growth rates. Our findings highlight that climate driven shifts in growth phenology will likely occur as climate changes and this may facilitate changes in tree communities by altering inter
Green Growth - an Illusion? Energy and Climate Risk: Rethinking our Developmental Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dessus, B.
2011-01-01
The years go by and international conferences come and go, with their quota of cries of alarm and calls to action to counter climate change. But in reality few large-scale programmes have been launched anywhere in the world involving concrete action to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. As one who has campaigned for many years for policies of energy consumption control, Benjamin Dessus shows here that the energy challenge is as great as it has ever been in a world of expanding populations in which most peoples aspire to reach the developmental level of the northern countries, despite the fact that our climate probably cannot support such a state of affairs. He argues here against a certain number of common suppositions, such as the idea of focussing exclusively on CO 2 in the fight against global warming, the need for a continuous economic growth on the order of 2% per annum or excessive faith in market mechanisms to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. He also stresses the ambiguities of so-called 'green' growth and compares different energy conservation scenarios. In this way, he shows that, against a relatively dominant line of reasoning based largely on (at times near-utopian) technological solutions and the continuation of sustained economic growth, there are more effective paths based on individual/collective energy sobriety and a serious slowdown of economic growth in the most developed countries, if not indeed a total halt to that growth (though these are more ambitious in that they require a revolution in the behaviour of the most affluent peoples). He concludes by proposing some courses of action for implementing such a programme in a country like France, showing the extent to which modern modes of life are going to have to change and how urgent it now is to debate these matters, if such change is to be achieved without - excessive - pain. (author)
Diameter growth performance of tree functional groups in Puerto Rican secondary tropical forests
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Patricia Adame
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Aim of study: Understanding the factors that control tree growth in successional stands is particularly important for quantifying the carbon sequestration potential and timber yield of secondary tropical forests. Understanding the factors that control tree growth in successional stands is particularly important for quantifying the carbon sequestration potential and timber yield of secondary tropical forests. Yet, the high species diversity of mixed tropical forests, including many uncommon species, hinders the development of species-specific diameter growth models.Area of study: In these analyses, we grouped 82 species from secondary forests distributed across 93 permanent plots on the island of Puerto Rico.Material and Methods: Species were classified according to regeneration strategy and adult height into six functional groups. This classification allowed us to develop a robust diameter growth model using growth data collected from 1980-1990. We used mixed linear model regression to analyze tree diameter growth as a function of individual tree characteristics, stand structure, functional group and site factors.Main results: The proportion of variance in diameter growth explained by the model was 15.1%, ranging from 7.9 to 21.7%. Diameter at breast height, stem density and functional group were the most important predictors of tree growth in Puerto Rican secondary forest. Site factors such as soil and topography failed to predict diameter growth.Keywords: Caribbean forests; growth model; tropical forest succession; Puerto Rico.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wentao Zhang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Dendroecological techniques were used to examine the relationships between topographic aspects, climate factors and radial growth of Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii in Luyashan Mountains, North-Central China. Four sites were selected at timberline and totally 67 trees and 134 cores were collected. Pearson correlation and regression surface analysis were conducted to reveal the growth-climate relationships. The results indicated that the two species both showed significant negative correlations with temperature during preceding November on the two topographic aspects. On both slope aspects, growth of P. meyeri exhibited significant negative correlations with precipitation in current June, whereas growth of L. principis-rupprechtii showed significant negative correlations with precipitation in preceding September. On north-facing slope, tree growth was limited by low temperature in early growing season, which not shown on south-facing slope. If climate warming continues, L. principis-rupprechtii may be more favored and a reverse between relationships with temperature and precipitation maybe occur in growth of trees. Treeline position on the north-facing slope may possess a greater potential for elevation shifting than the south-facing slope. Our results supply useful information for discussing the potential effect of future climate on the forest growth in North-Central China.
The impact of climate change on the balanced growth equivalent: An application of FUND
Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.
2009-01-01
The Stern Review added balanced growth equivalents (BGE) to the economic climate change research agenda. We first propose rigorous definitions of the BGE for multiple regions and under uncertainty. We show that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income. For
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bin He
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm–dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm
Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups
Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.
2009-12-01
Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claudio Jose Struchiner
Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.
Global warming, energy use, and economic growth
Khanna, Neha
The dissertation comprises four papers that explore the interactions between global warming, energy use, and economic growth. While the papers are separate entities, they share the underlying theme of highlighting national differences in the growth experience and their implications for long-term energy use and climate change. The first paper provides an overview of some key economic issues in the climate change literature. In doing so, the paper critically appraises the 1995 draft report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The focus is the choice of a pure rate of time preference in the economic modeling of climate change, abatement costs differentials between developed and developing countries, and contrasting implications of standard discount rates and value of life estimates for these two country groups. The second paper develops a global model that takes account of the depletion of oil resources in the context of a geo-economic model for climate change. It is found that in the presence of non-decreasing carbon and energy intensities and declining petroleum availability, the carbon emissions trajectory is much higher than that typically projected by other models of this genre. Furthermore, by introducing price and income sensitive demand functions for fossil fuels, the model provides a framework to assess the effectiveness of fuel specific carbon taxes in reducing the COsb2 emissions trajectory. Cross-price substitution effects necessitate unrealistically high tax rates in order to lower the projected emissions trajectory to the optimal level. The economic structure of five integrated assessment models for climate change is reviewed in the third paper, with a special focus on the macroeconomic and damage assessment modules. The final paper undertakes an econometric estimation of the changing shares of capital, labour, energy, and technical change in explaining the growth patterns of 38 countries. Production elasticities vary by
Dragoni, Lisa
2005-11-01
This article attends to a broad range of practically significant employee motivations and provides insight into how to enhance individual-level performance by examining individual-level state goal orientation emergence in organizational work groups. Leadership and multilevel climate processes are theorized to parallel each dimension of state goal orientation to cue and ultimately induce the corresponding achievement focus among individual work group members. It is argued that the patterns of leader behavior, which elucidate the leader's achievement priority, shape group members' psychological and work group climate to embody this priority. Resulting multilevel climate perceptions signal and compel group members to adopt the ascribed form of state goal orientation. The quality of the leader-member exchange relationship is viewed as a means to clarify leader messages in the formation of group members' psychological climate and internalize these cues in the emergence of state goal orientation. Considerations for future research and practice are discussed. ((c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved).
College students’ perceptions of a caring climate in group physical activity classes
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Newland Aubrey
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Study aim: Research suggests that physical activity rates decline sharply after high school. The pattern of activity or inactivity during college tends to persist into adulthood. A critical need exists for examination of strategies to engage college-age students in physical activity habits. One way to do this is through physical activity courses offered in colleges. This study examines the relationship between perceptions of a caring psychological climate and group connectedness, enjoyment, and attitudes toward classmates and the instructor in group physical activity courses. Material and methods: Participants were 174 students (107 males and 67 females; Mage = 21.71 enrolled in exercise, martial arts, and sports courses at a large university in the Mountain West. Results: Perceptions of a caring climate were significantly related to enhanced feelings of group connectedness, heightened enjoyment, and more positive attitudes toward classmates and instructor. Discussion: These findings suggest that a strategy to foster engagement in physical activity courses on campus is to train instructors to value, support, and welcome students.
Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.
2018-01-01
Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.
1991-01-01
The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs
Growth-climate relationships vary with height along the stem in lodgepole pine.
Chhin, Sophan; Hogg, E H Ted; Lieffers, Victor J; Huang, Shongming
2010-03-01
This study tests the hypothesis that ring growth in the upper stem portion of trees is affected by climatic conditions differently than rings formed at breast height (1.3 m). A total of 389 trees from a network of 65 lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) sites in Alberta were examined using detailed stem analysis in order to examine interannual patterns of basal area increment and volume increment at different positions along the stem. Growth at lower sections of the bole was mainly driven by temperature and moisture conditions in the seasons prior to the growing season in the year of ring formation, while upper stem growth was more related to conditions during the year of growth, i.e., temperature in the early summer, or moisture in late winter to early spring. This translates into increased allocation of wood to the lower stem when prior late summer conditions are cool and wet, prior winters are mild (warm with little snow) and early summer conditions in the year of ring formation are hot and dry.
Tangyuenyong, Siriwan; Sato, Fumio; Nambo, Yasuo; Murase, Harutaka; Endo, Yoshiro; Tanaka, Tomomi; Nagaoka, Kentaro; Watanabe, Gen
2017-01-01
This study aimed to compare body growth, metabolic, and reproductive hormonal changes in trained Thoroughbred yearling horses under different climate conditions with and without light supplementation (LS). Thoroughbred yearlings raised at research centers of the Japan Racing Association in Hokkaido (north) or Miyazaki (south) were divided into control and LS groups. In the LS groups, 44 colts and 47 fillies from Hokkaido and 11 colts and 11 fillies from Miyazaki were exposed to LS with an extended photoperiod of 14.5 hr of daylight and 9.5 hr of darkness. One week before and once a month after LS, circulating total thyroxine (T4), insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-1), prolactin (PRL), cortisol, and progesterone (P4) concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay and fluoroimmunoassay, respectively. Growth parameters, including body weight, height, girth, and cannon bone circumferences, were measured monthly. Hair coat (HC) condition was scored. Under natural conditions, the T4 concentrations of Hokkaido yearlings tended to be higher, whereas the IGF-1 (colt) and PRL levels were significantly lower than those of yearlings in Miyazaki. Growth parameters and HC scores were lower in Hokkaido yearlings. With LS, the PRL and P4 concentrations in Hokkaido and Miyazaki were higher, and the first ovarian activity tended to be earlier than in the controls. Only LS Hokkaido yearlings showed significantly higher HC scores than the controls. Comparing the different climates among the LS yearlings, the levels of PRL and P4 and the HC scores in Hokkaido yearlings increased and reached levels similar to those in Miyazaki yearlings. The body weight and girth increment percentages of Hokkaido yearlings in January dramatically decreased and then eventually increased to levels similar to those of Miyazaki yearlings. This suggested that yearlings in naturally colder Hokkaido exhibit higher basal metabolism to maintain homeostasis. However, providing LS may help to improve growth and
Direct fitness of group living mammals varies with breeding strategy, climate and fitness estimates.
Ebensperger, Luis A; Rivera, Daniela S; Hayes, Loren D
2012-09-01
1. Understanding how variation in fitness relates to variation in group living remains critical to determine whether this major aspect of social behaviour is currently adaptive. 2. Available evidence in social mammals aimed to examine this issue remains controversial. Studies show positive (i.e. potentially adaptive), neutral or even negative fitness effects of group living. 3. Attempts to explain this variation rely on intrinsic and extrinsic factors to social groups. Thus, relatively more positive fitness effects are predicted in singularly breeding as opposed to plural breeding species. Fitness effects of sociality in turn may depend on ecological conditions (i.e. extrinsic factors) that influence associated benefits and costs. 4. We used meta-analytic tools to review how breeding strategy or ecological conditions influence the effect size associated with direct fitness-sociality relationships reported in the mammalian literature. Additionally, we determined how taxonomic affiliation of species studied, different fitness and sociality measures used, and major climatic conditions of study sites explained any variation in direct fitness effect size. 5. We found group living had modest, yet positive effects on direct fitness. This generally adaptive scenario was contingent not only upon breeding strategy and climate of study sites, but also on fitness measures examined. Thus, positive and significant effects characterized singular as opposed to plural breeding strategies. 6. We found more positive fitness effects on studies conducted in tropical as opposed to temperate or arid climates. More positive and significant effects were noted on studies that relied on group fecundity, male fecundity and offspring survival as measures of fitness. 7. To conclude, direct fitness consequences of mammalian group living are driven by interspecific differences in breeding strategy and climate conditions. Other factors not examined in this study, namely individual variation in
As Bad as it Gets: How Climate Damage Functions Affect Growth and the Social Cost of Carbon
Bretschger, Lukas; Pattakou, Aimilia
2017-01-01
The paper analyzes the effects of varying climate impacts on the social cost of carbon and economic growth. We use polynomial damage functions in a model of an endogenously growing two-sector economy. The framework includes nonrenewable natural resources which cause greenhouse gas emissions; pollution stock harms capital and reduces economic growth. We find a big effect of the selected damage function on the social cost of carbon and a significant impact on the growth rate. In our calibration...
Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change
2012-01-01
This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...
Clean coal technologies and global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Long, R.S.
1993-01-01
The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities
Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783
St. George, Scott; Meko, David M.; Evans, Michael N.
2008-09-01
A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring.
Su, Y.; Liu, L.; Fang, X. Q.; Ma, Y. N.
2015-07-01
In ancient China, the change in regional agriculture and animal husbandry productivity caused by climate change led to either wars or peaceful relations between nomadic and farming groups. From the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty there were 367 wars between the two groups. The nomadic people initiated 69 % of the wars, but 62.4 % were won by the farmers. On a 30 year-period timescale, warm climates corresponded to a high incidence of wars. The conflicts between the nomadic and farming groups took place in some areas which are sensitive to climate change. During the cold periods, the battlefields were mostly in the southern regions. The main causes which leading to the above results are following: (1) warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups, especially contributed to improve the productivity of nomadic group; meanwhile, the excessive desire for essential means of subsistence in nomadic group could led to wars. (2) During the cold periods, people of farming group moved to the south and construct the south, meanwhile, nomadic group occupied the central plains, thus the battlefields also changed. As the background, climate change plays an indirect role in wars between groups.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bao Yang
Full Text Available It is generally hypothesized that tree growth at the upper treeline is normally controlled by temperature while that at the lower treeline is precipitation limited. However, uniform patterns of inter-annual ring-width variations along altitudinal gradients are also observed in some situations. How changing elevation influences tree growth in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, is of considerable interest because of the sensitivity of the region's local climate to different atmospheric circulation patterns. Here, a network of four Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom. ring-width chronologies was developed from trees distributed on a typical mountain slope at elevations ranging from 3000 to 3520 m above sea level (a.s.l.. The statistical characteristics of the four tree-ring chronologies show no significant correlation with increasing elevation. All the sampled tree growth was controlled by a common climatic signal (local precipitation across the investigated altitudinal gradient (520 m. During the common reliable period, covering the past 450 years, the four chronologies have exhibited coherent growth patterns in both the high- and low-frequency domains. These results contradict the notion of contrasting climate growth controls at higher and lower elevations, and specifically the assumption that inter-annual tree-growth variability is controlled by temperature at the upper treeline. It should be stressed that these results relate to the relatively arid conditions at the sampling sites in the Qilian Mountains.
The Influence of Climatic Seasonality on the Diversity of Different Tropical Pollinator Groups
Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Kluge, Jürgen; Gareca, Yuvinka; Reichle, Steffen; Kessler, Michael
2011-01-01
Tropical South America is rich in different groups of pollinators, but the biotic and abiotic factors determining the geographical distribution of their species richness are poorly understood. We analyzed the species richness of three groups of pollinators (bees and wasps, butterflies, hummingbirds) in six tropical forests in the Bolivian lowlands along a gradient of climatic seasonality and precipitation ranging from 410 mm to 6250 mm. At each site, we sampled the three pollinator groups and their food plants twice for 16 days in both the dry and rainy seasons. The richness of the pollinator groups was related to climatic factors by linear regressions. Differences in species numbers between pollinator groups were analyzed by Wilcoxon tests for matched pairs and the proportion in species numbers between pollinator groups by correlation analyses. Species richness of hummingbirds was most closely correlated to the continuous availability of food, that of bees and wasps to the number of food plant species and flowers, and that of butterflies to air temperature. Only the species number of butterflies differed significantly between seasons. We were not able to find shifts in the proportion of species numbers of the different groups of pollinators along the study gradient. Thus, we conclude that the diversity of pollinator guilds is determined by group-specific factors and that the constant proportions in species numbers of the different pollinator groups constitute a general pattern. PMID:22073268
The influence of climatic seasonality on the diversity of different tropical pollinator groups.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefan Abrahamczyk
Full Text Available Tropical South America is rich in different groups of pollinators, but the biotic and abiotic factors determining the geographical distribution of their species richness are poorly understood. We analyzed the species richness of three groups of pollinators (bees and wasps, butterflies, hummingbirds in six tropical forests in the Bolivian lowlands along a gradient of climatic seasonality and precipitation ranging from 410 mm to 6250 mm. At each site, we sampled the three pollinator groups and their food plants twice for 16 days in both the dry and rainy seasons. The richness of the pollinator groups was related to climatic factors by linear regressions. Differences in species numbers between pollinator groups were analyzed by Wilcoxon tests for matched pairs and the proportion in species numbers between pollinator groups by correlation analyses. Species richness of hummingbirds was most closely correlated to the continuous availability of food, that of bees and wasps to the number of food plant species and flowers, and that of butterflies to air temperature. Only the species number of butterflies differed significantly between seasons. We were not able to find shifts in the proportion of species numbers of the different groups of pollinators along the study gradient. Thus, we conclude that the diversity of pollinator guilds is determined by group-specific factors and that the constant proportions in species numbers of the different pollinator groups constitute a general pattern.
Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A
2013-12-01
For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant-endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.
Role of population genetics in guiding ecological responses to climate.
Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Leites, Laura P; Joyce, Dennis G; Weiskittel, Aaron R
2018-02-01
Population responses to climate were assessed using 3-7 years height growth data gathered for 266 populations growing in 12 common gardens established in the 1980s as part of five disparate studies of Pinus contorta var. latifolia. Responses are interpreted according to three concepts: the ecological optimum, the climate where a population is competitively exclusive and in which, therefore, it occurs naturally; the physiological optimum, the climate where a population grows best but is most often competitively excluded; and growth potential, the innate capacity for growth at the physiological optimum. Statistical analyses identified winter cold, measured by the square root of negative degree-days calculated from the daily minimum temperature (MINDD0 1/2 ), as the climatic effect most closely related to population growth potential; the colder the winter inhabited by a population, the lower its growth potential, a relationship presumably molded by natural selection. By splitting the data into groups based on population MINDD0 1/2 and using a function suited to skewed normal distributions, regressions were developed for predicting growth from the distance in climate space (MINDD0 1/2 ) populations had been transferred from their native location to a planting site. The regressions were skewed, showing that the ecological optimum of most populations is colder than the physiological optimum and that the discrepancy between the two increases as the ecological optimum becomes colder. Response to climate change is dependent on innate growth potential and the discrepancy between the two optima and, therefore, is population-specific, developing out of genotype-environment interactions. Response to warming in the short-term can be either positive or negative, but long term responses will be negative for all populations, with the timing of the demise dependent on the amount of skew. The results pertain to physiological modeling, species distribution models, and climate
Asian Americans and Campus Climate: Investigating Group Differences around a Racial Incident
Johnston, Marc P.; Yeung, Fanny P. F
2014-01-01
Racially biased incidents pervade college campuses warranting further attention to their influence on campus climate. This study examines one such incident that targeted Asian American students, who are the largest racial group at the compositionally diverse institution. Using the Diverse Learning Environments survey and the "naturally…
Altered seasonal climate patterns towards hotter, drier summers through the 21st century resulting from global climate change could affect the growth of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. The seasonal effects of temperature, precipitation,...
Yao, Qi-chao; Wang, Xiao-chun; Xiao, Xing-wei
2015-07-01
Two tree-ring width chronologies of Picea koraiensis at two altitudes in Fenglin National Nature Reserve of Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China were developed by using dendrochronological methods. To identify main limiting factors of P. koraiensis radial growth at the two altitudes, the relationships between the chronologies and local temperature, precipitation, Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and large-scale climatic factors were investigated. Meanwhile, the reasons of P. koraiensis growth decline in recent years were also explored. Results showed that radial growth of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'an Mountains was mainly limited by temperatures, especially by the minimum temperature in growing season, while the limiting effect of precipitation was relatively weak. Climate responses of P. koraiensis growth at the different altitudes showed significant differences. Radial growths of P. koraiensis at the low altitude were positively correlated with precipitation in the current growth season (June-September) and whole year, and negatively correlated with soil temperatures at different depths, especially at 80 cm depth in growing season. Meanwhile, it was signi-ficantly positively correlated with PDSI in growing season. However, the relationships between radial growth of P. koraiensis at the high altitude and precipitation, air and soil temperatures, and PDSI were not significant as that at the low altitude. Growth decline of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'an Mountains could be related to the phase changes in Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the significant global warming since 1980. The coupling effects of the above changes might result in increased soil evaporation and exacerbated warming and drying phenomena, consequently causing the growth decline of P. koraiensis at the low altitude.
Bullying and School Climate: Associations and Group Differences
Biernbaum, Mark A.; Lotyczewski, Bohdan S.
2015-01-01
Bullying is an international public health problem that school climate could help prevent or promote. The present paper contains an analysis of an anonymous school climate survey, completed by 9554 students, in grades 5-12 (response rate 87%). Links in the literature between school climate and bullying lack specificity. We examined associations…
Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability
Oremus, K. L.
2016-12-01
Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Green, S.; Miyamoto, Y. [Northern British Columbia Univ., Prince George, BC (Canada). Ecosystem Science and Management Program
2006-07-01
Climate is the key factor affecting tree growth. Trees regularly adapt to changing environmental conditions. Adjusting forest policies and practices under changing environments necessitates an understanding of species-specific tree responses to climate change. This paper discussed a study that examined the responses of 3 northern conifer tree species, notably the lodgepole pine, subalpine fir, and interior spruce. The purpose of the study was to characterize the climate sensitivities of each species growing under various environmental conditions, represented by mean annual temperatures and mean annual precipitations. The paper provided background information on climate change and tree species and discussed the objectives and implications of the study. Study methods were presented in detail and a geographical map showing the eight sampling sites located in central British Columbia and Yukon was also provided. Last, the paper provided the preliminary results and conclusions. It was found that the impacts of changing seasonal climates on tree growth will be species and site-specific. However, the magnitude of these differences were not completely analysed so that the impacts may be similar or significantly different among species or sites. 15 refs., 4 figs.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf
2009-01-01
This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...... response, mould growth at interior wall surfaces, indoor climate and energy consumption. First the WDR load oil the facades of a 4 m x 4 m x 10 m tower is determined. Then the hygrothermal behaviour of the brick walls is analysed oil a horizontal slice through the tower. The simulations demonstrate...
Sugar beet growth in a changing climate: past, present and future trends in southwest Germany
Kremer, Pascal; Fuchs, Hans-Joachim; Lang, Christian
2017-04-01
In the study, single factors and their impact on sugar beet cultivation against the background of past and projected climate change are being analyzed. The database consists of climate data by the German Weather Service and 1x1 km interpolated INTERMET raster data. Impact models were run to assess possible future trends using climate projection data of the REgional MOdel (REMO), emission scenario A1B, Run 1, data stream 2 for Germany, daily resolution, without bias correction, 10x10 km raster (n=150) (MPI on behalf of UBA 2006). Compared periods were: B:1971 2000; K:2021-2050; L:2071-2100. Agronomic data were collected from the field books of regional trials from 1974 2014 (n=448). Moreover, a business survey of regional farmers was carried out and evaluated. Impact models to predict timing for sowing, the date of field emergence and row closure, were derived from these data. The ontogenesis was simulated using a linear, temperature-based leaf-growth model. Sowing shifted forward by 7,3 days in regional field trials from 1974 2014. Progress-oriented, risk-tolerant farmers start sowing 10-14 days earlier compared to 1980. Recently, sowing is being conducted on average on 21 March in southwest Germany. For period K, 17 March, and for period L, 2 March is being projected as the average future sowing date while the same late frost risk applies compared to present climatic conditions. Shifting forward the sowing date with spring warming and, thus, exploiting the associated yield potential is the most promising agronomic adaptation strategy to the projected climate change on the farm level. In connection to earlier sowing, the field emergence tendentially shifted forward by 14 days in the field trials. Assuming sowing on 15 March, projection results show an advance of field emergence form 7 April in period B to 3 April in period L. Row closure in field trials in average shifted forward by 19,6 days. For period L, 29 May and thus, an earlier row closure of 9 days compared
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Paterson, R Russell M; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni; Lima, Nelson
2015-09-24
The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.
Tao, Fulu; Zhang, Zhao; Shi, Wenjiao; Liu, Yujie; Xiao, Dengpan; Zhang, Shuai; Zhu, Zhu; Wang, Meng; Liu, Fengshan
2013-10-01
Based on the crop trial data during 1981-2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the North Eastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation (SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981-2009. Rice transplanting, heading, and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR (YZ_SR) and NECP (NE_SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_SR and NE_SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period (RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR (YZ_ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR (YZ_LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981-2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed the yield of YZ_ER by -0.59 to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased the yield of YZ_LR by 8.38-9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_SR by 7.14-9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased the yield of NE_SR by 1.01-3.29%. Our study suggests that rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate effects on cork growth in Cork oak plantations in Sicily (Italy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2009-03-01
Full Text Available Cork oak (Quercus suber L. is usually dominant in silvopastoral systems in many areas of Sicily, where the trees are debarked periodically for cork production. In spite of the importance of cork and cork oak stands in Sicilian forests and the potential economic scenarios, few research works have been carried out on these systems. Given the importance of cork thickness in cork quality evaluation, the main objective of this work is to study cork growth in cork oak productive stands spread on the north (Nebrodi Mountains and south-east (Iblei Mountains of Sicily. Image analysis techniques were used on cork surfaces of transverse sections of planks to measure cork rings. Dendrochronological analysis was applied to study annual fluctuation on rings growth in relation to various climate parameters in a cork cycle production. Results showed that rainfall, summer drought and temperature are determining factors in controlling cork growth. In siliceous areas of Nebrodi Mountains correlation between cork growth index and rainfall indicates that the rain period from May to September strongly influences phellogen activity. Temperature and water stress indices, on the other hand, show a negative correlation with cork growth. In clay and evolved soils of volcanic plateau of Iblei Mountains January precipitation shows a positive correlation with cork growth index. Also absolute minimum temperature in June and absolute maximum temperature in September show a positive correlation when temperature possibly has influence on phellogen activity during growing season.
Schmidt, Megan R; Lisco, Claire G; Parrott, Dominic J; Tharp, Andra T
2016-03-01
The present study sought to examine the interactive effects of an external locus of control and interaction in a negative peer group climate on men's perpetration of physical aggression and infliction of injury toward their female intimate partners. Participants were 206 heterosexual males recruited from the metro-Atlanta community who completed self-report measures of external locus of control, involvement in a negative peer group climate, and physical aggression and infliction of injury against intimate partners during the past 12 months. Negative peer group climate was conceptualized as a peer group that displays behavior which may instigate aggressive norms, attitudes, and behaviors. Results indicated that men with an external locus of control were more likely to perpetrate physical aggression toward and inflict injury on their intimate partners if they reported high, but not low, involvement in a negative peer group climate. These results extend current research suggesting external locus of control as a risk factor for intimate partner aggression by highlighting the impact of negative peer groups. Implications and future intervention research are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.
Zhao, Zhi-Jiang; Tan, Liu-Yi; Kang, Dong-Wei; Liu, Qi-Jing; Li, Jun-Qing
2012-03-01
Picea likiangensis (Franch. ) Pritz. primary forest is one of the dominant forest types in the Small Zhongdian area in Shangri-La County of Yunnan Province. In this paper, the responses of P. likiangensis tree-ring width to climate change were analyzed by dendrochronological methods, and the dendrochronology was built by using relatively conservative detrending negative exponential curves or linear regression. Correlation analysis and response function analysis were applied to explore the relationships between the residual chronology series (RES) and climatic factors at different time scales, and pointer year analysis was used to explain the reasons of producing narrow and wide rings. In the study area, the radial growth of P. likiangensis and the increasing air temperature from 1990 to 2008 had definite 'abruption'. The temperature and precipitation in previous year growth season were the main factors limiting the present year radial growth, and especially, the temperature in previous July played a negative feedback role in the radial growth, while the sufficient precipitation in previous July promoted the radial growth. The differences in the temperature variation and precipitation variation in previous year were the main reasons for the formation of narrow and wide rings. P. likiangensis radial growth was not sensitive to the variation of PDSI.
To support growth, to limit emissions: is China a model in terms of climate policy?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Voita, Thibault
2012-05-01
The objective of this paper is to discuss how China has been able to adapt its economic policy to the challenges of climate change without forgetting its final objective of economic growth for the country. The author first describes some characteristics of the Chinese decision political system in the field of industrial and energy policy towards a low carbon economy: articulation between central power and local authorities, and complexity of decision processes at the central level. The author then shows how this system has changed to integrate policies of struggle against climate change, used them as an opportunity towards a low carbon economy, and put them at the service of the national industrial policy. Then, based on several case studies of actual projects (electric vehicles, gas liquefaction, local energy policies), the author proposes an assessment of the system efficiency, and tries to see whether one can talk of a Chinese political model regarding the policy of struggle against climate change. He notably discusses the efficiency of these policies in terms of relationship between industrial independence and climate policy
Advances and bottlenecks in modelling the greenhouse climate: summary of a group discussion
Seginer, I.; Bakker, J.C.
1998-01-01
This report is a summary of a group discussion at the symposium 'Models in protected cultivation' held in Wageningen, August 1997. The discussion focused on the reasons for the relatively limited acceptance and application of greenhouse climate models, especially in commercial practice. The
Research Advances of Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Climatic Adaptability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2011-01-01
Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.
Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich
2016-02-01
Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.
2013-12-01
Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.
Growth, morphology, and structural properties of group-III-nitride nanocolumns and nanodisks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Calleja, E.; Ristic, J.; Fernandez-Garrido, S.; Sanchez-Garcia, M.A.; Grandal, J.; Cerutti, L.; Trampert, A.; Jahn, U.; Sanchez, G.; Griol, A.; Sanchez, B.
2007-01-01
The growth conditions to achieve group-III-nitride nanocolumns and nanocolumnar heterostructures by plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy are studied. The evolution of the nanocolumnar morphology with the growth conditions is determined for (Ga,Al)N and (In,Ga)N nanocolumns. The mechanisms behind the nanocolumnar growth under high N-rich conditions are clarified in the sense that no seeding or catalysts are required, as it is the case in the vapour-liquid-solid model that applies to most nanocolumns grown by metal organic chemical vapour deposition, either with group-III nitrides, II-VI or III-V compounds. Some examples of nanocolumnar heterostructures are given, like quantum disks and cylindrical nanocavities. Preliminary results on the growth of arrays of ordered GaN nanocolumns are reported. (copyright 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)
Hou, Xin-yuan; Shi, Jiang-feng; Li, Ling-ling; Lu, Hua-yu
2015-03-01
A well-replicated Abies fargesii tree-ring width chronology in the Shennongjia Mount was developed to investigate its radial growth response to climate variables (e.g., monthly mean tempe- rature and total precipitation) and other growing season indicators (e.g., cumulative temperature, continuous days, initial and final dates). Correlation analyses showed that the tree-ring width was positively correlated to the mean temperatures of February, April and September, and negatively correlated to the total precipitation of September, prior September and prior December. The analyses between the chronology and other growing season parameters showed that tree growth responded positively to the cumulative temperature and continuous days of the growing season. The correlation was the highest when the growing season was defined as the days above the temperature threshold of 9.0 °C. Defined this way, the growing season typically started in late-May and ended in mid-September, lasting about 120 days. Correlation analyses were also conducted between the tree-ring growth and the initial and final dates of the growing season. Results showed that correlation was the highest for initial dates defined at 9.0 °C (with the coefficient of -0.25 and p-value close to 0.05), and for final dates defined at 9.3 °C (with the coefficient of 0.33 and p-value less than 0.05). All these results indicated that the sensitive temperature threshold for photosynthesis of A. fargesii was around 9.0 °C. The year 1978 marked an abrupt shift of climate in southeast China. We compared A. fargesii growth between pre-1978 and post-1978 periods. Results showed that as temperature rose, the growing season was lengthened with both earlier initial dates and later final dates. Longer growing season increased the A. fargesii growth in the Shennongjia Mount, southeastern China.
Growth, Flowering Time and Quality of Twelve Apple Varieties under Urmia Climate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reza Rezaee
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Apple is a major commercial fruit crop grown in Iran. The country produces approximately 1.6 - 2.7 million tonnes of apples and was one of the top 10 apple producing countries in the world during the last decade. West Azerbaijan province, with more than 50,000 hectare of apple orchards and by producing of approximately one million tonne of fresh apple, is one of the main regions of apple production in Iran. In this region, two common apple cultivars Red Delicious and Golden Delicious are dominant (>90%, which needs to be updated by new apple cultivars to satisfy different technical/management as well as worldwide marketing requirements. Apple cultivars evaluations was started in Iran since 1953 and a lot of apple collection were established, but and until new apple cultivar was not introduced to farmers, As a first step for introduction of alternative cultivars, in this study, vegetative growth, flowering time, fruit ripening time as well as fruit quality of 12 apple (Malus pumilla Mill cultivars were evaluated under Urmia climatic conditions. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to evaluate vegetative growth, quality and compatibility of some apple cultivars to allow selection of alternative cultivars for commercial apple production in the northwest province of Iran. Materials and methods: This experiment was conducted at the Kahriz Horticultural Research Station located in Urmia-Iran (latitude 44°07' E; 37º 53' N.; altitude, 1325 m above sea level. The experimental design was randomized complete blocks, with 12 treatments (cultivars and three replications. The apple cultivars including Golden Delicious, Red Delicious, Red Spur, Fuji, Delbar Stival, Golden Smothee, Jonagold, Gholab-Kohanz, Golab-Kermanshah, Mahali Shikhi and Shafie Abadi were grafted on MM 111 rootstock. Trees were 10-year-old with a planting distance of 3 x 4 m and were trained as modified leader system. Data collected for annual shoot growth, time
Schmidt, Megan R.; Lisco, Claire G.; Parrott, Dominic J.; Tharp, Andra T.
2018-01-01
The present study sought to examine the interactive effects of an external locus of control and interaction in a negative peer group climate on men’s perpetration of physical aggression and infliction of injury toward their female intimate partners. Participants were 206 heterosexual males recruited from the metro-Atlanta community who completed self-report measures of external locus of control, involvement in a negative peer group climate, and physical aggression and infliction of injury against intimate partners during the past 12 months. Negative peer group climate was conceptualized as a peer group that displays behavior which may instigate aggressive norms, attitudes, and behaviors. Results indicated that men with an external locus of control were more likely to perpetrate physical aggression toward and inflict injury on their intimate partners if they reported high, but not low, involvement in a negative peer group climate. These results extend current research suggesting external locus of control as a risk factor for intimate partner aggression by highlighting the impact of negative peer groups. Implications and future intervention research are discussed. PMID:25389191
S.B. McLaughlin; S.D. Wullschleger; G. Sun
2007-01-01
A lack of data on responses of mature tree growth and water use to ambient ozone (O3) concentrations has been a major limitation in efforts to understand and model responses of forests to current and future changes in climate.Here, hourly to seasonal patterns of stem growth and sap flow velocity were...
Ong, Joyce Jia Lin; Rountrey, Adam Nicholas; Meeuwig, Jessica Jane; Newman, Stephen John; Zinke, Jens; Meekan, Mark Gregory
2015-06-08
Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations.
Growth of group III nitride films by pulsed electron beam deposition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ohta, J.; Sakurada, K.; Shih, F.-Y.; Kobayashi, A.; Fujioka, H.
2009-01-01
We have grown group III nitride films on Al 2 O 3 (0 0 0 1), 6H-SiC (0 0 0 1), and ZnO (0001-bar) substrates by pulsed electron beam deposition (PED) for the first time and investigated their characteristics. We found that c-plane AlN and GaN grow epitaxially on these substrates. It has been revealed that the growth of GaN on atomically flat 6H-SiC substrates starts with the three-dimensional mode and eventually changes into the two-dimensional mode. The GaN films exhibited strong near-band-edge emission in their room temperature photoluminescence spectra. We also found that the use of PED allows us to reduce the epitaxial growth temperature for GaN down to 200 deg. C. - Graphical abstract: We have grown group III nitride films by pulsed electron beam deposition (PED) and found that the films of group III nitrides grow epitaxially on 6H-SiC and Al 2 O 3 substrates. We also found that the use of PED allows us to reduce the epitaxial growth temperature for GaN down to 200 deg. C.
Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment
Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.
2015-01-01
Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly
Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change
Jarvis, A. J.; Leedal, D. T.; Hewitt, C. N.
2012-09-01
The growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is the most important disturbance operating on the Earth's climate system. To avoid dangerous climate change, future greenhouse-gas emissions will have to deviate from business-as-usual trajectories. This implies that feedback links need to exist between climate change and societal actions. Here, we show that, consciously or otherwise, these feedbacks can be represented by linking global mean temperature change to the growth dynamics of CO2 emissions. We show that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy post-1990 represents a climate-society feedback of ~0.25%yr-1 per degree increase in global mean temperature. We also show that to fulfil the outcomes negotiated in Durban in 2011, society will have to become ~ 50 times more responsive to global mean temperature change than it has been since 1990. If global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically then this would result in amplification of the long-term endogenous rate of decarbonization from -0.6%yr-1 to ~-13%yr-1. It is apparent that modest levels of feedback sensitivity pay large dividends in avoiding climate change but that the marginal return on this effort diminishes rapidly as the required feedback strength increases.
Impact of climate change on radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in North-western Russia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lopatin E
2007-01-01
Full Text Available When adapting forest management practices to a changing environment, it is very important to understand the response of an unmanaged natural forest to climate change. The method used to identify major climatic factors influencing radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine along a latitudinal gradient in north-western Russia is dendroclimatic analysis. A clear increasing long-term trend was identified in air temperature and precipitation. During the last 20 years, all meteorological stations experienced temperature increases, and 40 years ago precipitation began to increase. This is shown by the radial increment of Siberian spruce and Scots pine. Therefore, climate change could partly explain the increased forest productivity. The total variance explained by temperature varied from 22% to 41% and precipitation from 19% to 38%. The significant climatic parameters for radial increment in Komi Republic were identified, and the relation between temperature and precipitation in explained variance changes over time for Siberian spruce.
Black, Bryan A; Dunham, Jason B; Blundon, Brett W; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J
2015-02-01
Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schoots, K.
2010-05-01
This report has been written on account of knowledge questions formulated by the Working Group Energy and Climate. This Working Group has been established in the framework of the Broad Reconsideration of Dutch government policy caused by the economic crisis of 2008-2009. Its task is to investigate the possibilities for a structural reduction of government spending by 20% on sustainable energy, energy saving and fiscal advantages carrying non-sustainable incentives. Apart from that, spending on policies aimed at mitigating climate change are scrutinized. In connection with this task, the working group has formulated knowledge questions which refer to cost effectiveness and possibilities for target achievement, possibilities within the European Renewables Directive and learning curves and innovation. This report addresses the latter two themes: learning curves and innovation. The selection of technologies assessed is not all-embracing, but based on the technologies within the SDE regulation (Dutch regulation on support for sustainable energy) supplemented by some promising innovations. [nl
Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van
2012-01-01
This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth
Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the southwestern USA
Weiss, Jeremy L.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.
2012-09-01
Pronounced droughts during the 1950s and 2000s in the American Southwest provide an opportunity to compare mesoscale ecosystem responses to anomalously dry conditions before and during the regional warming that started in the late 1970s. This year-round warming has produced fewer cool season freezes, losses in regional snowpack, an 8-10 day advance in spring onset, and hotter summers, all of which should affect vegetation differently across seasons and elevations. Here, we examine indices that represent climatic limits on foliar growth for both drought periods and evaluate these indices for areas that experienced tree mortality during the 2000s drought. Relative to the 1950s drought, warmer conditions during the 2000s drought decreased the occurrence of temperatures too low for foliar growth at lower elevations in winter and higher elevations in summer. Higher vapor pressure deficits (VPDs), largely driven by warmer temperatures in the more recent drought, were more limiting to foliar growth from spring through summer at lower and middle elevations. At many locations where tree mortality occurred during the 2000s drought, low-temperature constraints on foliar growth were extremely unlimiting, whereas VPD constraints were extremely limiting from early spring through late autumn. Our analysis shows that in physiographically complex regions such as the Southwest, seasonality and elevational gradients are important for understanding vegetative responses to warming. It also suggests that continued warming will both increase the degree to which VPD limits foliar growth during future droughts and expand its reach to higher elevations and other seasons.
The impact of climatic variability and climate change on arabic coffee crop in Brazil
Camargo,Marcelo Bento Paes de
2010-01-01
The climatic variability is the main factor responsible for the oscillations and frustrations of the coffee grain yield in Brazil. The relationships between the climatic parameters and the agricultural production are quite complex, because environmental factors affect the growth and the development of the plants under different forms during the growth stages of the coffee crop. Agrometeorological models related to the growth, development and productivity can supply information for the soil wa...
Working group report on forestry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
MacIver, D.
1991-01-01
The results and conclusions of a working group held to discuss the state of knowledge and information needs concerning potential climate change implications for forestry are presented. The lack of knowledge in some basic processes, for example physiological and genetics, limits ability to evaluate and project the adaptation and responses to climate change. Areas where knowledge is weak include: the potential maximum productivity for a given climate region; the extent to which climate change can be accomodated by genetic adaptation; ways to improve the temporal/spatial distribution of projected precipitation and temperature changes and their magnitudes; the effect of global warming on fire severity and behavior; the current lightning distribution and relationship to fire and the response of this to global warming; socio-economic needs and constraints for management of wilderness areas; carbon dioxide enrichment effects on forest growth and water use efficiency; carbon benefits associated with afforestation and other carbon sequestering programs; impacts of forest practices on the carbon cycle; and the definition of biological diversity on the Great Plains. Recommended research initiatives include improving climate projections, targetted biological process research, monitoring for change and adaptive management, and development of decision support systems
Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim
2015-01-01
Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.
Sapling growth of Eucalyptus tereticornis under various edapho-climatic regions of Tamil Nadu
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Krishnaswami, S; Rai, R S.V.; Srinivasan, V M
1982-01-01
Girth at b.h. (o.b.) was measured in 2-4 yr old plantations at 6 sites on various soil types with annual rainfalls of 70-100 cm. Best average growth at 2x2-m spacing (over 29 cm girth at 4 yr old) was on sandy river banks with 90 cm rainfall and the worst (20-21 cm at 4 yr old) on poor gravelly and lateritic soils with low rainfall. It is suggested that strains should be selected to suit different local soil and climatic conditions. (Refs. 8).
Otis Prud'homme, Guillaume; Lamhamedi, Mohammed S; Benomar, Lahcen; Rainville, André; DeBlois, Josianne; Bousquet, Jean; Beaulieu, Jean
2017-01-01
With climate change, favorable growing conditions for tree species are shifting northwards and to higher altitudes. Therefore, local populations are becoming less adapted to their environment. Assisted migration is one of the proposed adaptive measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural populations and maintain forest productivity. It consists of moving genetic material to a territory where future climate conditions correspond to those of its current location. Eight white spruce ( Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) seed sources representing as many seed orchards were planted in 2013 at three forest sites simulating a south-north climatic gradient of 1.7°C in Québec, Canada. The objectives were to (1) evaluate the morpho-physiological responses of the different seed sources and (2) determine the role of genetic adaptation and physiological plasticity on the observed variation in morpho-physiological traits. Various seedling characteristics were measured, notably height growth from nursery to the fourth year on plantation. Other traits such as biomass and carbon allocation, nutritional status, and various photosynthetic traits before bud break, were evaluated during the fourth growing season. No interaction between sites and seed sources was observed for any traits, suggesting similar plasticity between seed sources. There was no change in the rank of seed sources and sites between years for height growth. Moreover, a significant positive correlation was observed between the height from the nursery and that after 4 years in the plantation. Southern seed sources showed the best height growth, while optimum growth was observed at the central site. Juvenile height growth seems to be a good indicator of the juvenile carbon sequestration and could serve as a selection criterion for the best genetics sources for carbon sequestration. Vector analysis showed no nitrogen deficiency 4 years after planting. Neither seed sources nor planting sites had a significant effect on
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guillaume Otis Prud'homme
2018-01-01
Full Text Available With climate change, favorable growing conditions for tree species are shifting northwards and to higher altitudes. Therefore, local populations are becoming less adapted to their environment. Assisted migration is one of the proposed adaptive measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural populations and maintain forest productivity. It consists of moving genetic material to a territory where future climate conditions correspond to those of its current location. Eight white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss seed sources representing as many seed orchards were planted in 2013 at three forest sites simulating a south-north climatic gradient of 1.7°C in Québec, Canada. The objectives were to (1 evaluate the morpho-physiological responses of the different seed sources and (2 determine the role of genetic adaptation and physiological plasticity on the observed variation in morpho-physiological traits. Various seedling characteristics were measured, notably height growth from nursery to the fourth year on plantation. Other traits such as biomass and carbon allocation, nutritional status, and various photosynthetic traits before bud break, were evaluated during the fourth growing season. No interaction between sites and seed sources was observed for any traits, suggesting similar plasticity between seed sources. There was no change in the rank of seed sources and sites between years for height growth. Moreover, a significant positive correlation was observed between the height from the nursery and that after 4 years in the plantation. Southern seed sources showed the best height growth, while optimum growth was observed at the central site. Juvenile height growth seems to be a good indicator of the juvenile carbon sequestration and could serve as a selection criterion for the best genetics sources for carbon sequestration. Vector analysis showed no nitrogen deficiency 4 years after planting. Neither seed sources nor planting sites had a
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2010-04-01
In twenty policy areas various working groups have studied variants that can lead to a 20% budget cut in the government budgets of the Netherlands, which must be realized in 2015. The aim of the reconsiderations is to use less government means to realize the same results, or even better results if possible. The broad reconsideration in the field of energy and climate focuses on the expenditure for renewable energy and energy efficiency, mitigating (inter)national climate policy and fiscal benefits. In this report the PBL gives account of its contribution to the Working Group 'Broad Reconsideration Energy and Climate'. [nl
Ultrascale Visualization of Climate Data
Williams, Dean N.; Bremer, Timo; Doutriaux, Charles; Patchett, John; Williams, Sean; Shipman, Galen; Miller, Ross; Pugmire, David R.; Smith, Brian; Steed, Chad;
2013-01-01
Fueled by exponential increases in the computational and storage capabilities of high-performance computing platforms, climate simulations are evolving toward higher numerical fidelity, complexity, volume, and dimensionality. These technological breakthroughs are coming at a time of exponential growth in climate data, with estimates of hundreds of exabytes by 2020. To meet the challenges and exploit the opportunities that such explosive growth affords, a consortium of four national laboratories, two universities, a government agency, and two private companies formed to explore the next wave in climate science. Working in close collaboration with domain experts, the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) project aims to provide high-level solutions to a variety of climate data analysis and visualization problems.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bravo, F.; Maguire, D.A.; González-Martínez, S.G.
2017-11-01
Aim of study: Our main goal is to determine the relationship between cone production and radial growth in Pinus pinaster Ait. under different climatic conditions across the Iberian Peninsula. Area of study: Coca Intensive Sampling Plateau, Northern Plateau (Spain). Material and methods: Cone counts were conducted on an intensive monitoring plot in Coca (North-Central Spain) during the years 2000, 2006 and 2007. A ZIP (zero-inflated Poisson) model was adjusted for simultaneously estimating the probability of obtaining crop cones and its amount. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was used as explanatory variable, together with a wide variety of tree and local stand variables. Climate (as evaluated by NAO), local stand density (here estimated from the six nearest trees), tree size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency significantly influenced both occurrence and intensity of cone production. Main results: ZIP models for predicting reproductive effort seems an adequate tool to predict reproductive responses to climatic fluctuations and the resulting future species distribution in the face of climate change, as well as to identify silviculture actions that would promote reproductive success in naturally-regenerated stands, list and discuss relevant results (including numeric values of experimental results). Research highlights: Climate, stand density and tree conditions (size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency) influence significantly both cone occurrence and intensity of fruiting as shown by a ZIP model. As the climate variables included in the model (based on Northern Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) are general and easily obtained, the proposed model has practical applicability to predicting Pinus pinaster cone production in the Iberian Peninsula.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Felipe Bravo
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Aim of study: Our main goal is to determine the relationship between cone production and radial growth in Pinus pinaster Ait. under different climatic conditions across the Iberian Peninsula. Area of study: Coca Intensive Sampling Plateau, Northern Plateau (Spain. Material and methods: Cone counts were conducted on an intensive monitoring plot in Coca (North-Central Spain during the years 2000, 2006 and 2007. A ZIP (zero-inflated Poisson model was adjusted for simultaneously estimating the probability of obtaining crop cones and its amount. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index was used as explanatory variable, together with a wide variety of tree and local stand variables. Climate (as evaluated by NAO, local stand density (here estimated from the six nearest trees, tree size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency significantly influenced both occurrence and intensity of cone production. Main results: ZIP models for predicting reproductive effort seems an adequate tool to predict reproductive responses to climatic fluctuations and the resulting future species distribution in the face of climate change, as well as to identify silviculture actions that would promote reproductive success in naturally-regenerated stands, list and discuss relevant results (including numeric values of experimental results. Research highlights: Climate, stand density and tree conditions (size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency influence significantly both cone occurrence and intensity of fruiting as shown by a ZIP model. As the climate variables included in the model (based on Northern Atlantic Oscillation, NAO are general and easily obtained, the proposed model has practical applicability to predicting Pinus pinaster cone production in the Iberian Peninsula.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bravo, F.; Maguire, D.A.; González-Martínez, S.G.
2017-01-01
Aim of study: Our main goal is to determine the relationship between cone production and radial growth in Pinus pinaster Ait. under different climatic conditions across the Iberian Peninsula. Area of study: Coca Intensive Sampling Plateau, Northern Plateau (Spain). Material and methods: Cone counts were conducted on an intensive monitoring plot in Coca (North-Central Spain) during the years 2000, 2006 and 2007. A ZIP (zero-inflated Poisson) model was adjusted for simultaneously estimating the probability of obtaining crop cones and its amount. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was used as explanatory variable, together with a wide variety of tree and local stand variables. Climate (as evaluated by NAO), local stand density (here estimated from the six nearest trees), tree size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency significantly influenced both occurrence and intensity of cone production. Main results: ZIP models for predicting reproductive effort seems an adequate tool to predict reproductive responses to climatic fluctuations and the resulting future species distribution in the face of climate change, as well as to identify silviculture actions that would promote reproductive success in naturally-regenerated stands, list and discuss relevant results (including numeric values of experimental results). Research highlights: Climate, stand density and tree conditions (size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency) influence significantly both cone occurrence and intensity of fruiting as shown by a ZIP model. As the climate variables included in the model (based on Northern Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) are general and easily obtained, the proposed model has practical applicability to predicting Pinus pinaster cone production in the Iberian Peninsula.
Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark
2018-04-01
This study with 79 students in Montreal, Quebec, compared the educational use of a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) global climate model (GCM) to climate education technologies developed for classroom use that included simpler interfaces and processes. The goal was to show how differing climate education technologies succeed and fail at getting students to evolve in their understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC). Many available climate education technologies aim to convey key AGCC concepts or Earth systems processes; the educational GCM used here aims to teach students the methods and processes of global climate modeling. We hypothesized that challenges to learning about AGCC make authentic technology-enabled inquiry important in developing accurate understandings of not just the issue but how scientists research it. The goal was to determine if student learning trajectories differed between the comparison and treatment groups based on whether each climate education technology allowed authentic scientific research. We trace learning trajectories using pre/post exams, practice quizzes, and written student reflections. To examine the reasons for differing learning trajectories, we discuss student pre/post questionnaires, student exit interviews, and 535 min of recorded classroom video. Students who worked with a GCM demonstrated learning trajectories with larger gains, higher levels of engagement, and a better idea of how climate scientists conduct research. Students who worked with simpler climate education technologies scored lower in the course because of lower levels of engagement with inquiry processes that were perceived to not actually resemble the work of climate scientists.
Baker, Patrick; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Robinson, Andrew
2013-04-01
Mangrove forests are one of the most biologically important ecosystems of the littoral tropics. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services including tsunami protection, food production, and waste processing. They are also rapidly disappearing due to increasing rates of clearance for development and aquaculture. It remains unclear how mangroves will respond to changing climatic conditions. Here we discuss the results of a long-term study that explored the interacting effects of climate, species, and management practices on annual variability of growth and mortality of mangroves in peninsular Thailand. The 15-year study period included the extreme 1997-98 ENSO event that led to widespread drought-induced mortality and forest fires across the region, but which appeared to have little impact on the mangroves. Our results provide an important, and much-needed, framework for conservation and forest management planning in these mangrove forests given future concerns and uncertainty about climate change in the tropics.
Laura P. Leites; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Andrew P. Robinson; Nicholas L. Crookston; Barry Jaquish
2012-01-01
Under projected changes in global climate, the growth and survival of existing forests will depend on their ability to adjust physiologically in response to environmental change. Quantifying their capacity to adjust and whether the response is species- or population-specific is important to guide forest management strategies. New analyses of historic provenance tests...
Latte, Nicolas; Perin, Jérôme; Kint, Vincent; Lebourgeois, François; Claessens, Hugues
2016-01-01
Global change-particularly climate change, forest management, and atmospheric deposition-has significantly altered forest growing conditions in Europe. The influences of these changes on beech growth (Fagus sylvatica L.) were investigated for the past 80 years in Belgium, using non-linear mixed effects models on ring-width chronologies of 149 mature and dominant beech trees (87-186 years old). The effects of the developmental stage (i.e., increasing tree size) were filtered out in order to fo...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chang Zhang
2013-06-01
in the growing season. Compared to CON, ET and ETC increased LMF and SMF, and decreased RMF over the whole growing season under NW and HW. Under LW, ET and ETC decreased LMF and increased RMF throughout the growing season, and increased SMF in early periods and then decreased later in the growing season. EC decreased the LMF and SMF and increased the RMF over the growing season but did not significantly affect the seasonal biomass allocation pattern between plant organs. The LMF was higher and the RMF was lower throughout the growing season in response to the higher groundwater level, while the effect of groundwater level on the SMF depended on the developmental phase of the plants. Our results show that climatic treatments affected biomass growth and biomass allocation to each of the three plant organs, while the direction and extent of climate-related changes in biomass growth and allocation depended on the availability of groundwater. The influence of groundwater level appeared to be crucial for the carbon gain regarding the production of RCG biomass for energy purposes and the concurrent sequestration of carbon in soils under changing climates in the mire sites used to cultivate RCG. (orig.)
Climate Responses in Growth and Wood Anatomy of Imoprtant Forest Tree Species in Denmark
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Huang, Weiwei
and high temperatures on the development of Danish tree species are scarcely investigated. Through a dendroecological approach this dissertation assessed the growth responses related to increment, xylem anatomy and wood property of eight different important tree species, namely Picea abies (L.) Karst......., Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr., Abies alba Mill., Abies grandis (Dougl.) Lindl., Pseudotsuga mensiesii (Mirb.) Franco, Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr., Quercus robur L. and Fagus sylvatica L., to long-term drought and high temperatures, aiming at identifying a species portfolio matching future climate...... intolerant species, mainly due to their low drought tolerance (both species) and susceptibility to high autumn temperature (only P. abies). Overall, this dissertation improves the understanding of how drought and high temperatures have impacted and will influence the growth of tree species in Danish forest...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jorge Olivar
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Background: The Mediterranean basin has experienced an increase in the mean annual temperature, a decrease in the mean annual precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of severe drought periods during the second half of the 20th century. However, winter and spring precipitation has increased and summer precipitation has decreased in the western Mediterranean region. Aim of the study: The objectives of the present study were: i to compare changes in climate-growth relationships over time for Pinus halepensis, P. pinaster and P. sylvestris in Spain ii to quantify the presence of intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs on the three species, and iii to define the associated climatic variables. Area of study: 26 sampling sites (8 P. halepensis sites, 8 P. pinaster sites and 10 P. sylvestris sites were selected in their distribution area in Spain. Main results: Precipitation is the main factor influencing growth and IADF occurrence in the three species. Wet periods during previous winter and spring induced higher growth rates on P. halepensis and P. pinaster, while P. sylvestris was mostly influenced by summer precipitation. However, the influence of these climatic variables on the growth of these species changed over the studied period. The increase of winter and spring precipitation combined with increasingly harsh summer climatic conditions in the second half of the 20th century may have enhanced the importance of precipitation at the beginning of the growing season on the growth of species subject to higher summer drought stress (P. halepensis and P. pinaster and increased IADF occurrence. Research highlights: Besides reflecting changes in the environmental conditions during the growing season, the inclusion of IADF detection in chronologies adds new information to ring-width chronologies, thereby improving its quality.
Control of individual daily growth in group-housed pigs using feeding stations
Ramaekers, P.J.L.
1996-01-01
In this thesis, it was examined whether it is possible to control individual daily growth and carcass composition in group-housed pigs using feeding stations. A forelegs weighing system to estimate the daily individual body weight (BW) of group-housed pigs was developed and validated. In two
Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.
2016-12-01
Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than
van Walsum, P. E. V.
2011-11-01
Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a
Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Butkus, Mindaugas
2018-06-18
Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Legros, S; Mialet-Serra, I; Caliman, J-P; Siregar, F A; Clément-Vidal, A; Dingkuhn, M
2009-11-01
Oil palm flowering and fruit production show seasonal maxima whose causes are unknown. Drought periods confound these rhythms, making it difficult to analyse or predict dynamics of production. The present work aims to analyse phenological and growth responses of adult oil palms to seasonal and inter-annual climatic variability. Two oil palm genotypes planted in a replicated design at two sites in Indonesia underwent monthly observations during 22 months in 2006-2008. Measurements included growth of vegetative and reproductive organs, morphology and phenology. Drought was estimated from climatic water balance (rainfall - potential evapotranspiration) and simulated fraction of transpirable soil water. Production history of the same plants for 2001-2005 was used for inter-annual analyses. Drought was absent at the equatorial Kandista site (0 degrees 55'N) but the Batu Mulia site (3 degrees 12'S) had a dry season with variable severity. Vegetative growth and leaf appearance rate fluctuated with drought level. Yield of fruit, a function of the number of female inflorescences produced, was negatively correlated with photoperiod at Kandista. Dual annual maxima were observed supporting a recent theory of circadian control. The photoperiod-sensitive phases were estimated at 9 (or 9 + 12 x n) months before bunch maturity for a given phytomer. The main sensitive phase for drought effects was estimated at 29 months before bunch maturity, presumably associated with inflorescence sex determination. It is assumed that seasonal peaks of flowering in oil palm are controlled even near the equator by photoperiod response within a phytomer. These patterns are confounded with drought effects that affect flowering (yield) with long time-lag. Resulting dynamics are complex, but if the present results are confirmed it will be possible to predict them with models.
Using and Applying Focus Groups in Climate Change Impact Assessment Projects
DeLorme, D.; Hagen, S.
2011-12-01
The focus group social science research method is an efficient and flexible data collection tool with broad applicability across disciplines and contexts. Through group dynamics, this interviewing approach offers strengths in gathering candid, spontaneous comments and detailed firsthand descriptions from stakeholders' perspectives. The method, which can stand alone or be integrated with other research frameworks, has much potential for helping to manage complex issues of global change. For optimal outcomes, however, careful planning and procedures are paramount. This presentation offers guidance in this regard via examples, tips, and lessons learned from a multidisciplinary NOAA-funded project: Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM). Focus groups are a key component of the EESLR-NGOM project as they are being used to better understand coastal resource managers' operational and information behaviors and needs regarding sea level rise (SLR), erosion, and hurricane storm surge impact; to learn how to best develop and translate the project's expected scientific results into straightforward, useful, and readily-disseminated products; and to gather outreach recommendations. As part of an EESLR-NGOM project kickoff workshop, 12 coastal resource managers participated voluntarily in a focus group. A summary of findings and illustrative participant quotations will be included in the presentation. The initial focus group was productive in gaining insights into challenges and opportunities associated with a climate change project such as the EESLR-NGOM. It highlighted the importance of considering the interrelationships of natural and built environments and new avenues for resilience and sustainability. The coastal resource managers are not only end-users but also opinion leaders in their local communities who will diffuse this information widely through their networks of other potential end-users. Engaging coastal resource managers in
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brad Seely
Full Text Available Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.
Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.
2014-12-01
India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use
Bojaxhi, Faruk; Toromani, Elvin
2016-01-01
Background and Purpose: Pinus heldreichii Christ. is a sub-endemic species occurring at tree-line locations in Kosovo and covering an area of 2500 ha. In high elevation sites radial growth is mainly controlled by low temperatures. The main purpose of this study was the analysis of radial growth of P. heldreichii and its response to local climate conditions. Materials and Methods: Research sites comprise of three high elevation stands of P. heldreichii with specific site conditions. Core sa...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schou, Erik; Meilby, Henrik
2013-01-01
Transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged forest management is currently taking place throughout Europe. Climate change is, however, expected to change growth conditions—possibly quite radically. Using a deterministic approach, it was the objective of this study to investigate the influence...... of such changes on optimal transformation strategies for an even-aged stand of European Beech in Denmark. For a range of growth change scenarios, represented by changes in site index, optimal harvest policies were determined using a matrix modelling approach and a differential evolution algorithm. Transition...... probabilities were updated continuously based on stand level variables and the transition matrix was thus dynamic. With optimal transformation policies, stand development followed similar pathways during the transformation phase irrespective of climate change scenario. Optimal transformation policies were thus...
Early kit mortality and growth in farmed mink are affected by litter size rather than nest climate
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schou, Toke Munk; Malmkvist, Jens
2017-01-01
increased growth (P=0.026). Nest box temperature had little effect on early kit survival and growth, which could be due to dams’ additional maternal behaviour. Therefore, we cannot confirm that temperature is the primary reason for kit mortality, under the conditions of plenty straw access for maternal nest......We investigated the effects of nest box climate on early mink kit mortality and growth. We hypothesised that litters in warm nest boxes experience less hypothermia-induced mortality and higher growth rates during the 1st week of life. This study included data from 749, 1-year-old breeding dams...... building. Instead, prenatal and/or parturient litter size is the primary factor influencing early kit vitality. The results indicate that the focus should be on litter size and dam welfare around the times of gestation and birth to increase early kit survival in farmed mink....
Kim, K. S.; Yoo, B. H.
2016-12-01
Impact assessment of climate change on crop production would facilitate planning of adaptation strategies. Because socio-environmental conditions would differ by local areas, it would be advantageous to assess potential adaptation measures at a specific area. The objectives of this study was to develop a crop growth simulation system at a very high spatial resolution, e.g., 30 m, and to assess different adaptation options including shift of planting date and use of different cultivars. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was used to predict yields of soybean and maize in Korea. Gridded data for climate and soil were used to prepare input data for the DSSAT model. Weather input data were prepared at the resolution of 30 m using bilinear interpolation from gridded climate scenario data. Those climate data were obtained from Korean Meteorology Administration. Spatial resolution of temperature and precipitation was 1 km whereas that of solar radiation was 12.5 km. Soil series data at the 30 m resolution were obtained from the soil database operated by Rural Development Administration, Korea. The SOL file, which is a soil input file for the DSSAT model was prepared using physical and chemical properties of a given soil series, which were available from the soil database. Crop yields were predicted by potential adaptation options based on planting date and cultivar. For example, 10 planting dates and three cultivars were used to identify ideal management options for climate change adaptation. In prediction of maize yield, combination of 20 planting dates and two cultivars was used as management options. Predicted crop yields differed by site even within a relatively small region. For example, the maximum of average yields for 2001-2010 seasons differed by sites In a county of which areas is 520 km2 (Fig. 1). There was also spatial variation in the ideal management option in the region (Fig. 2). These results suggested that local
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z.
2007-01-01
The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO 2 Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in
The Community Earth System Model-Polar Climate Working Group and the status of CESM2.
Bailey, D. A.; Holland, M. M.; DuVivier, A. K.
2017-12-01
The Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) is a consortium of scientists who are interested in modeling and understanding the climate in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and how polar climate processes interact with and influence climate at lower latitudes. Our members come from universities and laboratories, and our interests span all elements of polar climate, from the ocean depths to the top of the atmosphere. In addition to conducting scientific modeling experiments, we are charged with contributing to the development and maintenance of the state-of-the-art sea ice model component (CICE) used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A recent priority for the PCWG has been to come up with innovative ways to bring the observational and modeling communities together. This will allow for more robust validation of climate model simulations, the development and implementation of more physically-based model parameterizations, improved data assimilation capabilities, and the better use of models to design and implement field experiments. These have been informed by topical workshops and scientific visitors that we have hosted in these areas. These activities will be discussed and information on how the better integration of observations and models has influenced the new version of the CESM, which is due to be released in late 2017, will be provided. Additionally, we will address how enhanced interactions with the observational community will contribute to model developments and validation moving forward.
Brooke Baldauf McBride; Anne E. Black
2012-01-01
This study examined the effects of organizational, environmental, group and individual characteristics on five components of safety climate in the US federal fire management community (HRO Practices, Leadership, Group Culture, Learning Orientation and Mission Clarity). Multiple analyses of variance revealed that all types of characteristics had a significant effect on...
Growth conditions of 0-group plaice
Cardoso, J.F.M.F.; Freitas, V.; de Paoli, H.; Witte, J.IJ.; van der Veer, H.W.
2016-01-01
Growth studies based on population-based growth estimates are limited by the fact that they do not take into account differences in age/size structure within the population. To overcome these problems, otolith microstructure analysis is often used to estimate individual growth. Here, we analyse
What climate information is recorded in stable isotope ratios of wood lignin methoxyl groups?
Greule, Markus; Keppler, Frank
2010-05-01
The stable isotope composition of the bioelements C, O, H and N in plant organic matter is known to be a very powerful for various environmental impacts. Particularly tree rings are suitable for this analysis because they exhibit a "climate archive" with a yearly or even biannual resolution. One of the most determined wood compounds is cellulose which amongst others is used to reconstruct the temperature due to measurement of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. Therefore cellulose is converted into cellulose nitrate to eliminate the exchangeable hydroxyl hydrogen or equilibration methods are used. However, a general problem associated with the determination of the stable hydrogen values of marker compounds for the study of climate and environmental conditions is the isolation of the pure compound for analysis by isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Exploitation of components of wood as markers, in particular, has been restricted by the very labour intensive and time consuming preparation of samples (e.g. cellulose nitrate). An alternative way to record climate information from tree rings was recently proposed by Keppler et al. (2007) who measured the stable hydrogen values of methoxyl groups in wood. Lignin methoxyl groups are considered to be stable, i.e. the hydrogen atoms of the methoxyl moiety do not exchange with those of plant water during ongoing metabolic reactions in the plant. Thus the initial deuterium content of the methoxyl groups of lignin in woody tissue at formation is retained throughout the lifetime of the tree and in preserved tissue. The methoxyl content of lignin in wood is usually determined by the Zeisel method (Zeisel, 1885) - the reaction between methyl ethers and hydroiodic acid to form methyl iodide. Exploiting this reaction for the measurement of stable hydrogen values of lignin methoxyl groups ensures that during the entire analytical procedure the isotope signal is preserved since no isotopic exchange occurs between the methyl groups and
Cardoso, Joana F. M. F.; Freitas, Vânia; de Paoli, Hélène; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.
2016-05-01
Growth studies based on population-based growth estimates are limited by the fact that they do not take into account differences in age/size structure within the population. To overcome these problems, otolith microstructure analysis is often used to estimate individual growth. Here, we analyse growth of 0-group plaice in the western Wadden Sea in two years: a year preceded by a mild winter (1995) and a year preceded by a severe winter (1996). Growth was analysed by combining information on individual growth based on otolith analysis with predictions of maximum growth (= under optimal food conditions) based on a Dynamic Energy Budget model. Otolith analysis revealed that settlement occurred earlier in 1995 than in 1996. In both years, one main cohort was found, followed by a group of late settlers. No differences in mean length-at-age were found between these groups. DEB modelling suggested that growth was not maximal during the whole growing season: realized growth (the fraction of maximum growth realized by 0-group plaice) declined in the summer, although this decline was relatively small. In addition, late settling individuals exhibited lower realized growth than individuals from the main cohort. This study confirms that growth conditions for 0-group plaice are not optimal and that a growth reduction occurs in summer, as suggested in previous studies.
Osborn, B.; Chapple, W.; Ewers, B. E.; Williams, D. G.
2014-12-01
The interaction between soil conditions and climate variability plays a central role in the ecohydrological functions of montane conifer forests. Although soil moisture availability to trees is largely dependent on climate, the depth and texture of soil exerts a key secondary influence. Multiple Pleistocene glacial events have shaped the landscape of the central Rocky Mountains creating a patchwork of soils differing in age and textural classification. This mosaic of soil conditions impacts hydrological properties, and montane conifer forests potentially respond to climate variability quite differently depending on the age of glacial till and soil development. We hypothesized that the age of glacial till and associated soil textural changes exert strong control on growth and photosynthetic gas exchange of lodgepole pine. We examined physiological and growth responses of lodgepole pine to interannual variation in maximum annual snow water equivalence (SWEmax) of montane snowpack and growing season air temperature (Tair) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) across a chronosequence of Pleistocene glacial tills ranging in age from 700k to 12k years. Soil textural differences across the glacial tills illustrate the varying degrees of weathering with the most well developed soils with highest clay content on the oldest till surfaces. We show that sensitivity of growth and carbon isotope discrimination, an integrated measure of canopy gas exchange properties, to interannual variation SWEmax , Tair and VPD is greatest on young till surfaces, whereas trees on old glacial tills with well-developed soils are mostly insensitive to these interannual climate fluctuations. Tree-ring widths were most sensitive to changes in SWEmax on young glacial tills (p < 0.01), and less sensitive on the oldest till (p < 0.05). Tair correlates strongly with δ13C values on the oldest and youngest tills sites, but shows no significant relationship on the middle aged glacial till. It is clear that
The Response of Tree-Ring Growth to Climate at Upper Timberline of Southern Aspect of Mt. Taibai
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qin Jin
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In recent years, the impact of climate change on vegetation in Qinling mountainous area has already been authenticated by numerous investigations, nevertheless, as the major ridge of Qinling Mountains as well as national natural conservation reserve, the ecology response of Mt. Taibai sub-alpine vegetation to climate change has not yet gained enough public attention.In this study, in accordance with the method of dendrochronology, response analysis was carried out to contrast characteristic parameters of tree-ring width chronologies for Larix chinensis from different elevations as well as their response pattern to climate change. The result showed that, Mean sensitivity, standard deviation and variance in first eigenvector are increasing with the rise of elevation, but the correlation coefficients (R1, R2, R3 were decreasing which indicated that the strength of the tree’s common or relative response to environment was decreasing with altitude. Precipitation had stronger correlation with the tree-ring radial growth than air temperature in both of the sites, during the growing season, trees in lower altitude had better correlation with temperature than in higher altitude, thus showing the different response to climate between the two different sites.
Andersen, Douglas
2016-01-01
Knowledge of the factors affecting the vigor of desert riparian trees is important for their conservation and management. I used multiple regression to assess effects of streamflow and climate (12–14 years of data) or climate alone (up to 60 years of data) on radial growth of clonal narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), a foundation species in the arid, Closed Basin portion of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. I collected increment cores from trees (14–90 cm DBH) at four sites along each of Sand and Deadman creeks (total N = 85), including both perennial and ephemeral reaches. Analyses on trees conditions was common. Models for trees farther from the channel or over a deep water table explained 23–71% of SGI variability, and 4 of 5 contained a streamflow variable. Analyses using solely climate variables over longer time periods explained 17–85% of SGI variability, and 10 of 12 included a variable indexing summer precipitation. Three large, abrupt shifts in recent decades from wet to dry conditions (indexed by a seasonal Palmer Drought Severity Index) coincided with dramatically reduced radial growth. Each shift was presumably associated with branch dieback that produced a legacy effect apparent in many SGI series: uncharacteristically low SGI in the year following the shift. My results suggest trees in locations distant from the active channel rely on the regional shallow unconfined aquifer, summer rainfall, or both to meet water demands. The landscape-level differences in the water supplies sustaining these trees imply variable effects from shifts in winter-versus monsoon-related precipitation, and from climate change versus streamflow or groundwater management.
Ricciardi, A; Ianniello, R G; Parente, E; Zotta, T
2015-09-01
Members of the Lactobacillus casei and Lactobacillus plantarum groups are capable of aerobic and respiratory growth. However, they grow poorly in aerobiosis in the currently available chemically defined media, suggesting that aerobic and respiratory growth require further supplementation. The effect of Tween 80, L-alanine, L-asparagine, L-aspartate, L-proline and L-serine on anaerobic and respiratory growth of Lact. casei N87 was investigated using a 2(5) factorial design. The effectiveness of modified CDM (mCDM) was validated on 21 strains of Lact. casei and Lact. plantarum groups. Tween 80 supplementation did not affect anaerobic growth, but improved respiratory growth. L-asparagine, L-proline and L-serine were stimulatory for respiring cells, while the presence of L-aspartate, generally, impaired biomass production. mCDM promoted the growth of Lact. casei and Lact. plantarum, with best results for strains showing a respiratory phenotype. The nutritional requirements of anaerobic and respiratory cultures of members of the Lact. casei and Lact. plantarum groups differ. Tween 80 and selected amino acids derived from pathways related to TCA cycle, pyruvate conversion and NADH recycling are required for respiration. The availability of mCDM will facilitate the study of aerobic metabolism of lactobacilli under controlled conditions. © 2015 The Society for Applied Microbiology.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Johann Mathias Housset
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Tree species responses to climate change will be greatly influenced by their evolutionary potential and their phenotypic plasticity. Investigating tree-rings responses to climate and population genetics at the regional scale is therefore crucial in assessing the tree behaviour to climate change. This study combined in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics over a latitudinal gradient and compared the variations between the two at the intra- and inter-population levels. This approach was applied on the northern marginal populations of Thuja occidentalis (eastern white-cedar in the Canadian boreal forest. We aimed first to assess the radial growth variability (response functional trait within populations across the gradient and to compare it with the genetic diversity (microsatellites. Second, we investigated the variability in the growth response to climate at the regional scale through the radial growth-climate relationships, and tested its correlation with environmental variables and population genetic structure. Model selection based on the Akaike Information Criteria revealed that the growth synchronicity between pairs of trees of a population covariates with both the genetic diversity of this population and the amount of precipitation (inverse correlation, although these variables only explained a small fraction of the observed variance. At the regional scale, variance partitioning and partial redundancy analysis indicate that the growth response to climate was greatly modulated by stand environmental variables, suggesting predominant plastic variations in growth-response to climate. Combining in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics is a promising way to investigate species’ response capacity to climate change in natural stands. We stress the need to control for local climate and site conditions effects on dendroclimatic response to climate to avoid misleading conclusions regarding the associations with genetic variables.
Grassland Growth in Response to Climate Variability in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan
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Sawaid Abbas
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Grasslands in the upper Indus basin provide a resource base for nomadic livestock grazing which is one of the major traditional livelihood practices in the area. The study presents climate patterns, grassland phenology, productivity and spatio-temporal climate controls on grassland growth using satellite data over the upper Indus basin of the Himalayan region, Pakistan. Phenology and productivity metrics of the grasses were estimated using a combination of derivative and threshold methods applied on fitted seasonal vegetation indices data over the period of 2001–2011. Satellite based rainfall and land surface temperature data are considered as representative explanatory variables to climate variability. The results showed distinct phenology and productivity patterns across four bioclimatic regions: (i humid subtropical region (HSR—late start and early end of season with short length of season and low productivity (ii temperate region (TR—early start and late end of season with higher length of season and moderate productivity (iii sub alpine region (SAR—late start and late end of season with very high length of season and the most productive grasses, and (iv alpine region (AR—late start and early end of season with small length of season and least productive grasses. Grassland productivity is constrained by temperature in the alpine region and by rainfall in the humid sub-tropical region. Spring temperature, winter and summer rainfall has shown significant and varied impact on phenology across different altitudes. The productivity is being influenced by summer and annual rainfall in humid subtropical regions, spring temperature in alpine and sub-alpine regions and both temperature and rainfall are contributing in temperate regions. The results revealing a strong relationship between grassland dynamics and climate variability put forth strong signals for drawing more scientific management of rangelands in the area.
Response of wheat restricted-tillering and vigorous growth traits to variables of climate change.
Dias de Oliveira, Eduardo A; Siddique, Kadambot H M; Bramley, Helen; Stefanova, Katia; Palta, Jairo A
2015-02-01
The response of wheat to the variables of climate change includes elevated CO2, high temperature, and drought which vary according to the levels of each variable and genotype. Independently, elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought affect wheat biomass and grain yield, but the interactive effects of these three variables are not well known. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of elevated CO2 when combined with high temperature and terminal drought on the high-yielding traits of restricted-tillering and vigorous growth. It was hypothesized that elevated CO2 alone, rather than combined with high temperature, ameliorates the effects of terminal drought on wheat biomass and grain yield. It was also hypothesized that wheat genotypes with more sink capacity (e.g. high-tillering capacity and leaf area) have more grain yield under combined elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought. Two pairs of sister lines with contrasting tillering and vigorous growth were grown in poly-tunnels in a four-factor completely randomized split-plot design with elevated CO2 (700 µL L(-1)), high day time temperature (3 °C above ambient), and drought (induced from anthesis) in all combinations to test whether elevated CO2 ameliorates the effects of high temperature and terminal drought on biomass accumulation and grain yield. For biomass and grain yield, only main effects for climate change variables were significant. Elevated CO2 significantly increased grain yield by 24-35% in all four lines and terminal drought significantly reduced grain yield by 16-17% in all four lines, while high temperature (3 °C above the ambient) had no significant effect. A trade-off between yield components limited grain yield in lines with greater sink capacity (free-tillering lines). This response suggests that any positive response to predicted changes in climate will not overcome the limitations imposed by the trade-off in yield components. © 2014 Commonwealth of
Climate Change Sensitivity of Multi-Species Afforestation in Semi-Arid Benin
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Florent Noulèkoun
2018-06-01
Full Text Available The early growth stage is critical in the response of trees to climate change and variability. It is not clear, however, what climate metrics are best to define the early-growth sensitivity in assessing adaptation strategies of young forests to climate change. Using a combination of field experiments and modelling, we assessed the climate sensitivity of two promising afforestation species, Jatropha curcas L. and Moringa oleifera Lam., by analyzing their predicted climate–growth relationships in the initial two years after planting on degraded cropland in the semi-arid zone of Benin. The process-based WaNuLCAS model (version 4.3, World Agroforestry Centre, Bogor, Indonesia was used to simulate aboveground biomass growth for each year in the climate record (1981–2016, either as the first or as the second year of tree growth. Linear mixed models related the annual biomass growth to climate indicators, and climate sensitivity indices quantified climate–growth relationships. In the first year, the length of dry spells had the strongest effect on tree growth. In the following year, the annual water deficit and length of dry season became the strongest predictors. Simulated rooting depths greater than those observed in the experiments enhanced biomass growth under extreme dry conditions and reduced sapling sensitivity to drought. Projected increases in aridity implied significant growth reduction, but a multi-species approach to afforestation using species that are able to develop deep-penetrating roots should increase the resilience of young forests to climate change. The results illustrate that process-based modelling, combined with field experiments, can be effective in assessing the climate–growth relationships of tree species.
Cuphea is a potential new oilseed crop rich in medium-chain fatty acids (C8:0 to C14:0) that may serve as a renewable, biodegradable source of oil for lubricants, motor oil, and aircraft fuel. Impacts of climate and soil environment on cuphea growth and development are not well understood. The objec...
Anne E. Black; Brooke Baldauf McBride
2013-01-01
This study examined the effects of organisational, environmental, group and individual characteristics on five components of safety climate (High Reliability Organising Practices, Leadership, Group Culture, Learning Orientation and Mission Clarity) in the US federal wildland fire management community. Of particular interest were differences between perceptions based on...
The growth of medical groups paid through capitation in California.
Robinson, J C; Casalino, L P
1995-12-21
and the subcontractor status offered by HMOs that negotiate directly with individual physicians. Despite their growth, such medical groups in California face substantial challenges, such as obtaining the financial assets necessary to sustain rapid growth.
Recognizing Non-Stationary Climate Response in Tree Growth for Southern Coastal Alaska, USA
Wiles, G. C.; Jarvis, S. K.; D'Arrigo, R.; Vargo, L. J.; Appleton, S. N.
2012-12-01
Stationarity in growth response of trees to climate over time is assumed in dendroclimatic studies. Recent studies of Alaskan yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis (D. Don) Spach) have identified warming-induced early loss of insulating snowpack and frost damage as a mechanism that can lead to decline in tree growth, which for this species is documented over the last century. A similar stress may be put on temperature-sensitive mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière) trees at low elevations, which in some cases show a decline in tree growth with warming temperatures. One of the challenges of using tree-ring based SAT, SST, PDO and PNA-related reconstructions for southern coastal Alaska has been understanding the response of tree-ring chronologies to the warming temperatures over the past 50 years. Comparisons of tree growth with long meteorological records from Sitka Alaska that extend back to 1830 suggest many mountain hemlock sites at low elevations are showing decreasing ring-widths, at mid elevations most sites show a steady increasing growth tracking warming, and at treeline a release is documented. The recognition of this recent divergence or decoupling of tree-ring and temperature trends allows for divergence-free temperature reconstructions using trees from moderate elevations. These reconstructions now provide a better perspective for comparing recent warming to Medieval warming and a better understanding of forest dynamics as biomes shift in response to the transition from the Little Ice Age to contemporary warming. Reconstructed temperatures are consistent with well-established, entirely independent tree-ring dated ice advances of land-terminating glaciers along the Gulf of Alaska providing an additional check for stationarity in the reconstructed interval.
Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Laura P. Leites; J. Bradley St Clair; Barry C. Jaquish; Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Javier Lopez-Upton; Dennis G. Joyce
2014-01-01
Height growth data were assembled from 10 Pinus ponderosa and 17 Pseudotsuga menziesii provenance tests. Data from the disparate studies were scaled according to climate similarities of the provenances to provide single datasets for 781 P. ponderosa and 1193 P. menziesii populations. Mixed effects models were used for two sub-specific varieties of each species to...
Su, Y.; Liu, L.; Fang, X. Q.; Ma, Y. N.
2016-01-01
In ancient China, shifts in regional productivity of agriculture and animal husbandry, caused by climate change, either led to wars or peaceful relations between nomadic and farming groups. During the period spanning the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty, 367 wars were waged between these groups. While 69 % of the wars were initiated by nomads, 62.4 % were won by the farming groups. On a centennial timescale, the battlegrounds were mostly in northern areas (at an average latitude of 38.92° N) during warm periods, moving southward (at an average latitude of 34.66° N) during cold periods. On a decadal timescale, warm climates corresponded to a high incidence of wars (a correlation coefficient of 0.293). While farming groups were inclined to initiate wars during dry and cold periods, their chances of achieving victory were reduced at such times. The main reasons for this are, first, that a warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups, contributing especially to enhanced productivity among the former. However, the overriding desire of nomadic groups to expand essential subsistence means led to wars. Second, during cold periods, farming groups moved to and settled in the south, while nomadic groups occupied the Central Plain. Thus, the locations of the battlefields also changed. While other factors also influenced these wars, climate change served as a backdrop, playing an indirect role in wars between these groups.
Nonlinearities, scale-dependence, and individualism of boreal forest trees to climate forcing
Wolken, J. M.; Mann, D. H.; Grant, T. A., III; Lloyd, A. H.; Hollingsworth, T. N.
2013-12-01
Our understanding of the climate-growth relationships of trees are complicated by the nonlinearity and variability of these responses through space and time. Furthermore, trees growing at the same site may exhibit opposing growth responses to climate, a phenomenon termed growth divergence. To date the majority of dendrochronological studies in Interior Alaska have involved white spruce growing at treeline, even though black spruce is the most abundant tree species. Although changing climate-growth relationships have been observed in black spruce, there is little known about the multivariate responses of individual trees to temperature and precipitation and whether or not black spruce exhibits growth divergences similar to those documented for white spruce. To evaluate the occurrence of growth divergences in black spruce, we collected cores from trees growing on a steep, north-facing toposequence having a gradient in environmental parameters. Our overall goal was to assess how the climate-growth relationships of black spruce change over space and time. Specifically, we evaluated how topography influences the climate-growth relationships of black spruce and if the growth responses to climate are homogeneous. At the site-level most trees responded negatively to temperature and positively to precipitation, while at the tree-level black spruce exhibited heterogenous growth responses to climate that varied in both space (i.e., between sites) and time (i.e., seasonally and annually). There was a dominant response-type at each site, but there was also considerable variability in the proportion of trees exhibiting each response-type combination. Even in a climatically extreme setting like Alaska's boreal forest, tree responses to climate variability are spatially and temporally complex, as well as highly nonlinear.
Huang, Guomin; Rymer, Paul D; Duan, Honglang; Smith, Renee A; Tissue, David T
2015-10-01
Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE ) and elevated temperature (TE ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reid, Walter V.; Goldemberg, Jose
1998-01-01
The role of developing countries in helping to solve the problem of climate change is increasingly a focus of political controversy. With levels of greenhouse gas emissions projected to exceed those of developed countries by 2020, some industrialized countries are calling on developing countries to take stronger action to meet the commitments they have made in the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). This review of recent policy changes in developing countries, however, suggests that they are already taking little appreciated steps that reduce rates of growth in carbon emissions. Indeed, since the 1992 signing of the FCCC, carbon emission savings in developing countries may be greater than those attained by industrialized countries. A major source of these gains can be attributed to energy price reforms that are likely to have led to substantial gains in production and end-use efficiency. (author)
Ding, Feng; Fang, Fan; Hearty, Thomas J.; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Lynnes, Christopher
2014-01-01
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission is entering its 13th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing long-wave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. Thus AIRS data have been widely used, among other things, for short-term climate research and observational component for model evaluation. One instance is the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which uses AIRS version 5 data in the climate model evaluation. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for data from the AIRS mission. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released data from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. The new algorithm represents a significant improvement over previous versions in terms of greater stability, yield, and quality of products. The ongoing Earth System Grid for next generation climate model research project, a collaborative effort of GES DISC and NASA JPL, will bring temperature and humidity profiles from AIRS version 6. The AIRS version 6 product adds a new "TqJoint" data group, which contains data for a common set of observations across water vapor and temperature at all atmospheric levels and is suitable for climate process studies. How different may the monthly temperature and humidity profiles in "TqJoint" group be from the "Standard" group where temperature and water vapor are not always valid at the same time? This study aims to answer the question by comprehensively comparing the temperature and humidity profiles from the "TqJoint" group and the "Standard" group. The comparison includes mean differences at different levels globally and over land and ocean. We are also working on examining the sampling differences between the "TqJoint" and "Standard" group using MERRA data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morgane Gillard
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to biological invasions, and will also be strongly impacted by climate change, including temperature increase. Understanding the colonization dynamics of aquatic invasive plant species is of high importance for preservation of native biodiversity. Many aquatic invasive plants rely on clonal reproduction to spread, but mixed reproductive modes are common. Under future climate changes, these species may favor a sexual reproductive mode. The aim of this study was to test the germination capacity and the seedling growth of two water primrose species, Ludwigia hexapetala and Ludwigia peploides, both invasive in Europe and in the United States. We performed a reciprocal transplant of seeds of L. hexapetala and L. peploides from two invasive ranges into experimental gardens characterized by Oceanic and Mediterranean-type climates. Our results showed that higher temperatures increased or maintained germination percentages and velocity, decreased survivorship of germinants, but increased their production of biomass. The origin of the seeds had low impact on L. hexapetala responses to temperature, but greatly influenced those of L. peploides. The invasiveness of water primroses in ranges with Oceanic climates might increase with temperature. The recruitment from seed banks by these species should be considered by managers to improve the conservation of native aquatic and wetland plant species.
Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain
Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko
2013-03-01
Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Figure 1. Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012). The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973). Figure 2. Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change
Sánchez-Gómez, D.; Zavala, M.A.; Schalkwijk, D.B.V.; Urbieta, I.R.; Valladares, F.
2008-01-01
Interspecific differences in tree growth patterns with respect to biotic and abiotic factors are key for understanding forest structure and dynamics, and predicting potential changes under climate change. • Repeated observations from the Spanish Forest Inventory (SFI) were used to parameterize
A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for ...
The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L.; Acot, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L.; Raynaud, D.; Thuiller, W.; Le Treut, H.; Houssais, M.N.; Duplessy, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Douville, H.; Barberousse, A.; Quinon, P.
2007-01-01
The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)
Growth and characterisation of group-III nitride-based nanowires for devices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Meijers, R J
2007-08-30
One of the main goals of this thesis was to get more insight into the mechanisms driving the growth of nitride nanowires by plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy (PA-MBE). The influence of the group-III and group-V flux as well as the substrate temperature T{sub sub} has been studied leading to the conclusion that the III-V ratio determines the growth mode. Ga desorption limits the temperature range to grow GaN nanowires and dissociation of InN is the limiting factor for InN nanowire growth. A reduction of the surface diffusivity on polar surfaces under N-rich conditions explains the anisotropic growth. Growth kinetics of the nanowires show that there are two important contributions to the growth. The first is growth by direct impingement and its contribution is independent of the nanowire diameter. The second contribution comes from atoms, which absorb on the substrate or wire sidewalls and diffuse along the sidewalls to the top of the wire, which acts as an effective sink for the adatoms due to a reduced surface mobility on the polar top of the wires. This diffusion channel, which is enhanced at higher T{sub sub}, becomes more significant for smaller wire diameters, because its contribution scales like 1/d. Experiments with an interruption of the growth and sharp interfaces in TEM images of heterostructures show that the suggestion in literature of a droplet-mediated PA-MBE nitride growth has to be discarded. Despite a thin amorphous silicon nitride wetting layer on the substrate surface, both GaN and InN nanowires grow in the wurtzite structure and epitaxially in a one-to-one relation to the Si(111) substrate surface. There is no evidence for cubic phases. TEM images and optical studies display a high crystalline and optical quality of GaN and InN nanowires. The substrate induces some strain in the bottom part of the nanowires, especially in InN due to the lower T{sub sub} than for GaN, which is released without the formation of dislocations. Only some stacking
Sagili, Ramesh R; Breece, Carolyn R
2012-08-01
Honey bee, Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidae), nutrition is vital for colony growth and maintenance of a robust immune system. Brood rearing in honey bee colonies is highly dependent on protein availability. Beekeepers in general provide protein supplement to colonies during periods of pollen dearth. Honey bee brood pheromone is a blend of methyl and ethyl fatty acid esters extractable from cuticle of honey bee larvae that communicates the presence of larvae in a colony. Honey bee brood pheromone has been shown to increase protein supplement consumption and growth of honey bee colonies in a subtropical winter climate. Here, we tested the hypothesis that synthetic brood pheromone (SuperBoost) has the potential to increase protein supplement consumption during fall in a temperate climate and thus increase colony growth. The experiments were conducted in two locations in Oregon during September and October 2009. In both the experiments, colonies receiving brood pheromone treatment consumed significantly higher protein supplement and had greater brood area and adult bees than controls. Results from this study suggest that synthetic brood pheromone may be used to stimulate honey bee colony growth by stimulating protein supplement consumption during fall in a northern temperate climate, when majority of the beekeepers feed protein supplement to their colonies.
Group size effects in two repeated game models of a global climate agreement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Helland, Leif
2002-01-01
What levels of total abatement can one hope for in a global climate agreement. Some potential answers to this question are provided by game theory. This working paper contains a critical discussion of two (prominent) game ,models that answer the question quite pessimistically. Both models take the n-person, infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game as their point of departure. The first model is a full information model and utilises the motion of a weakly re negotiation proof equilibrium. This results in the (maybe counterintuitive) prediction that an agreement that can provide high utility to the group will attract less total abatement than an agreement that can only provide low utility to the group. The second model assumes imperfect public information and utilises the notion of a trigger level equilibrium. This results in the (more intuitive) prediction that the level of total abatements will increase with improved verification techniques for a given player set. Still the level of total abatements decrease with an increasing player set for a given verification technique. Empirical implications of the two models are identified and it is argued that one should confront these with experimentally generated data in order to discriminate between the models. One reason for this is that historical data on abatement efforts in a global climate agreement do not exist since no such agreement has entered into force yet. (Author)
Group size effects in two repeated game models of a global climate agreement
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Helland, Leif
2002-07-01
What levels of total abatement can one hope for in a global climate agreement. Some potential answers to this question are provided by game theory. This working paper contains a critical discussion of two (prominent) game ,models that answer the question quite pessimistically. Both models take the n-person, infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game as their point of departure. The first model is a full information model and utilises the motion of a weakly re negotiation proof equilibrium. This results in the (maybe counterintuitive) prediction that an agreement that can provide high utility to the group will attract less total abatement than an agreement that can only provide low utility to the group. The second model assumes imperfect public information and utilises the notion of a trigger level equilibrium. This results in the (more intuitive) prediction that the level of total abatements will increase with improved verification techniques for a given player set. Still the level of total abatements decrease with an increasing player set for a given verification technique. Empirical implications of the two models are identified and it is argued that one should confront these with experimentally generated data in order to discriminate between the models. One reason for this is that historical data on abatement efforts in a global climate agreement do not exist since no such agreement has entered into force yet. (Author)
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Research Data Alliance's Interest Group on "Weather, Climate and Air Quality"
Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Benincasa, Francesco
2016-04-01
Research Data Alliance's Interest Group on "Weather, Climate and Air Quality" More than ever in the history of Earth sciences, scientists are confronted with the problem of dealing with huge amounts of data that grow continuously at a rate that becomes a challenge to process and analyse them using conventional methods. Data come from many different and widely distributed sources, ranging from satellite platforms and in-situ sensors to model simulations, and with different degrees of openness. How can Earth scientists deal with this diversity and big volume and extract useful information to understand and predict the relevant processes? The Research Data Alliance (RDA, https://rd-alliance.org/), an organization that promotes and develops new data policies, data standards and focuses on the development of new technical solutions applicable in many distinct areas of sciences, recently entered in its third phase. In this framework, an Interest Group (IG) comprised of community experts that are committed to directly or indirectly enable and facilitate data sharing, exchange, or interoperability in the fields of weather, climate and air quality has been created recently. Its aim is to explore and discuss the challenges for the use and efficient analysis of large and diverse datasets of relevance for these fields taking advantage of the knowledge generated and exchanged in RDA. At the same time, this IG intends to be a meeting point between members of the aforementioned communities to share experiences and propose new solutions to overcome the forthcoming challenges. Based on the collaboration between several research meteorological and European climate institutes, but also taking into account the input from the private (from the renewable energies, satellites and agriculture sectors for example) and public sectors, this IG will suggest practical and applicable solutions for Big Data issues, both at technological and policy level, encountered by these communities. We
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barker, T; Bashmakov, I; Bernstein, L; Bogner, J; Bosch, P; Dave, R; Davidson, O; Fisher, B; Grubb, M; Gupta, S; Halsnaes, K; Heij, B; Kahn Ribeiro, S; Kobayashi, S; Levine, M; Martino, D; Masera Cerutti, O; Metz, B; Meyer, L; Nabuurs, G J; Najam, A; Nakicenovic, N; Holger Rogner, H; Roy, J; Sathaye, J; Schock, R; Shukla, P; Sims, R; Smith, P; Swart, R; Tirpak, D; Urge-Vorsatz, D; Dadi, Z
2007-07-01
The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in
Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Lee, Jin; McFadden, Anna C; Rineer, Jennifer; Robertson, Michelle M
2017-01-01
Research has shown that safety climate is among the strongest predictors of safety behavior and safety outcomes in a variety of settings. Previous studies have established that safety climate is a multi-faceted construct referencing multiple levels of management within a company, most generally: the organization level (employee perceptions of top management's commitment to and prioritization of safety) and group level (employee perceptions of direct supervisor's commitment to and prioritization of safety). Yet, no research to date has examined the potential interaction between employees' organization-level safety climate (OSC) and group-level safety climate (GSC) perceptions. Furthermore, prior research has mainly focused on traditional work environments in which supervisors and workers interact in the same location throughout the day. Little research has been done to examine safety climate with regard to lone workers. The present study aims to address these gaps by examining the relationships between truck drivers' (as an example of lone workers) perceptions of OSC and GSC, both potential linear and non-linear relationships, and how these predict important safety outcomes. Participants were 8095 truck drivers from eight trucking companies in the United States with an average response rate of 44.8%. Results showed that employees' OSC and GSC perceptions are highly correlated (r= 0.78), but notable gaps between the two were observed for some truck drivers. Uniquely, both OSC and GSC scores were found to have curvilinear relationships with safe driving behavior, and both scores were equally predictive of safe driving behavior. Results also showed the two levels of climate significantly interacted with one another to predict safety behavior such that if either the OSC or GSC scores were low, the other's contribution to safety behavior became stronger. These findings suggest that OSC and GSC may function in a compensatory manner and promote safe driving behavior even
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eschalier, Claire; Cochran, Ian; Deheza, Mariana; Risler, Ophelie; Forestier, Pierre
2015-10-01
Development finance institutions (DFIs) are in a position to be key actors in aligning development and the 2 deg. challenge. One of the principal challenges today is to scale-up the financial flows to the trillions of dollars per year necessary to achieve the 2 deg. C long-term objectives. Achieving this transition to a low-carbon, climate resilient (LCCR) economic model requires the integration or 'mainstreaming' of climate issues as a prism through which all investment decisions should be made. This paper presents an overview of the opportunities and challenges of linking a LCCR transition with the objectives of development finance. It first presents the two-fold challenge of climate change and development for countries around the world. Second, the paper explores the role of development finance institutions and their support for the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economic model. Finally, it examines a necessary paradigm shift to integrate climate and development objectives to establish a 'LCCR development model' able to simultaneously tackling development priorities and needs for resilient, low-carbon growth. This will necessitate a move from focusing on a 'siloed' vision of climate finance to a means of aligning activities across the economy with the LCCR objectives to ensure that the majority of investments are coherent with this long-term transition. (authors)
Methods for improved growth of group III nitride buffer layers
Melnik, Yurity; Chen, Lu; Kojiri, Hidehiro
2014-07-15
Methods are disclosed for growing high crystal quality group III-nitride epitaxial layers with advanced multiple buffer layer techniques. In an embodiment, a method includes forming group III-nitride buffer layers that contain aluminum on suitable substrate in a processing chamber of a hydride vapor phase epitaxy processing system. A hydrogen halide or halogen gas is flowing into the growth zone during deposition of buffer layers to suppress homogeneous particle formation. Some combinations of low temperature buffers that contain aluminum (e.g., AlN, AlGaN) and high temperature buffers that contain aluminum (e.g., AlN, AlGaN) may be used to improve crystal quality and morphology of subsequently grown group III-nitride epitaxial layers. The buffer may be deposited on the substrate, or on the surface of another buffer. The additional buffer layers may be added as interlayers in group III-nitride layers (e.g., GaN, AlGaN, AlN).
The effects of anthropogenous on atmosphere and climate. Anthropogene Beeinflussung des Klimas
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grassl, H [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany, F.R.) Hamburg Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Meteorologisches Inst.
1989-11-01
The mostly uncontrolled emission of trace gases varies the composition of the atmosphere. Since some of the trace gases are emitted belong to the group of greenhouse gases and many of them are quite stable, and thus spread world wide, a global change to the radiation balance is inevitable. The present state of knowledge can be summarized by presenting the basic physical effects, the growth rates of the gases and their sources, the relative proportion of additional greenhouse effects and climatic variations calculated using models of the climate. (orig.).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gullberg, Anne Therese
2008-01-01
Drawing on two conflicting hypotheses from the theoretical literature on lobbying, I consider the strategies applied by interest groups lobbying to influence climate policy in the European Union (EU). The first hypothesis claims that interest groups lobby their 'friends', decision-makers with positions similar to their own. The second claims that interest groups lobby their 'foes', decision-makers with positions opposed to their own. Using interviews with lobbyists and decision-makers, I demonstrate that in the field of climate policy, interest groups in the EU lobby both friends and foes, but under different conditions. Moreover, I find that the interest groups' motives are not always in line with the theoretical hypotheses. Interest groups lobby their friends on single policy decisions to exchange information, to further a common cause and to exert pressure, and their foes because a foe on one issue might prove to be a friend on another issue. Interest groups direct general lobbying towards both friends and foes. This paper provides a new empirical contribution to a literature that has so far been heavily dominated by studies focusing on lobbying in the US
Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte
2014-01-01
In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Warren Pearce
Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.
Climate change driven plant-metal-microbe interactions.
Rajkumar, Mani; Prasad, Majeti Narasimha Vara; Swaminathan, Sandhya; Freitas, Helena
2013-03-01
Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico-chemico-biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant-metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant-microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant-metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Climate Change and Rainfed Wheat Production in Iran
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A Koocheki
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract This research was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate change on rainfed wheat growth and yield at country level. Weather data generated by a General Circulation model based on the ICCP scenarios for the target years of 2025 and 2050. Daily weather data including minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation and radiation were used as the inputs of a growth simulation model for rainfed after calibration and validation for predicting wheat yield under current climatic conditions. Using the model, the impacts of climate change on wheat growth and yield was predicted and compared with the current data. The simulation results indicated that leaf area index and absorbed radiation by wheat canopy was reduced under climatic conditions of the target years. Reduction of absorbed radiation resulted to a lower crop growth rate and consequently drastic reduction in dry matter production. Estimated drought stress index for the future climate conditions showed that reduction of crop growth rate was mainly resulted from water shortage due to increased evapotranspiration. Reduction of the length of growth period together with a considerable decline of harvest index resulted in a significant reduction of rainfed wheat yield despite the positive effects of increased CO2 concentration and this negative impacts on wheat yield was intensified from 2025 towards 2050. Simulation results showed that the potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat yield was more pronounced in Eastern regions of the country compared to the Western production areas. The overall country level reduction of rainfed wheat yield was estimated in the range of 16 to 25 % and 22 to 32% for the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Keywords: Climate change, Rainfed wheat, General Circulation models, Simulation, Yield, Iran
Stand competition determines how different tree species will cope with a warming climate.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laura Fernández-de-Uña
Full Text Available Plant-plant interactions influence how forests cope with climate and contribute to modulate species response to future climate scenarios. We analysed the functional relationships between growth, climate and competition for Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus faginea to investigate how stand competition modifies forest sensitivity to climate and simulated how annual growth rates of these species with different drought tolerance would change throughout the 21st century. Dendroecological data from stands subjected to thinning were modelled using a novel multiplicative nonlinear approach to overcome biases related to the general assumption of a linear relationship between covariates and to better mimic the biological relationships involved. Growth always decreased exponentially with increasing competition, which explained more growth variability than climate in Q. faginea and P. sylvestris. The effect of precipitation was asymptotic in all cases, while the relationship between growth and temperature reached an optimum after which growth declined with warmer temperatures. Our growth projections indicate that the less drought-tolerant P. sylvestris would be more negatively affected by climate change than the studied sub-Mediterranean oaks. Q. faginea and P. sylvestris mean growth would decrease under all the climate change scenarios assessed. However, P. sylvestris growth would decline regardless of the competition level, whereas this decrease would be offset by reduced competition in Q. faginea. Conversely, Q. pyrenaica growth would remain similar to current rates, except for the warmest scenario. Our models shed light on the nature of the species-specific interaction between climate and competition and yield important implications for management. Assuming that individual growth is directly related to tree performance, trees under low competition would better withstand the warmer conditions predicted under climate change scenarios but in
77 FR 1778 - U.S.-EU High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth
2012-01-11
... growth, and international competitiveness. The Leaders also asked the Working Group to work closely with public and private sector stakeholder groups, and to draw on existing dialogues and mechanisms, as..., and competitiveness; the feasibility; and the implications for, and consistency with, bilateral and...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pinnara Ket
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Setting up water-saving irrigation strategies is a major challenge farmers face, in order to adapt to climate change and to improve water-use efficiency in crop productions. Currently, the production of vegetables, such as lettuce, poses a greater challenge in managing effective water irrigation, due to their sensitivity to water shortage. Crop growth models, such as AquaCrop, play an important role in exploring and providing effective irrigation strategies under various environmental conditions. The objectives of this study were (i to parameterise the AquaCrop model for lettuce (Lactuca sativa var. crispa L. using data from farmers’ fields in Cambodia, and (ii to assess the impact of two distinct full and deficit irrigation scenarios in silico, using AquaCrop, under two contrasting soil types in the Cambodian climate. Field observations of biomass and canopy cover during the growing season of 2017 were used to adjust the crop growth parameters of the model. The results confirmed the ability of AquaCrop to correctly simulate lettuce growth. The irrigation scenario analysis suggested that deficit irrigation is a “silver bullet” water saving strategy that can save 20–60% of water compared to full irrigation scenarios in the conditions of this study.
Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Health
Ikefuji, M.; Magnus, J.R.; Sakamoto, H.
2010-01-01
This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with four heterogeneous regions, labeled ‘West’ (cold and rich), ‘China’ (cold and poor), ‘India’ (warm and poor), and ‘Africa’ (warm and very poor). We introduce health impacts into a simple integrated
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adama Toure
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Groundwater in the Klela basin in Mali, a subbasin of the Bani basin (one of the main tributaries of the Niger River, is required for domestic use, irrigation and livestock. Furthermore, water supply of the city of Sikasso directly depends on the groundwater resources, which are under pressure caused by increased water demand as well as climate variability and climate change. As a consequence, freshwater availability is being threatened which can have a direct negative impact on irrigation agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate future behavior of groundwater resources in the context of climate change and population growth using socio-economic and population growth scenarios for water demand and the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 data for calculating groundwater recharge using the Thornthwaite model. The WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system model was applied to balance water availability and demand and to compute changes in groundwater storage up to 2050. The overall results show that groundwater recharge as well as storage is decreasing over time, especially in the 2030s which can lead to severe agricultural droughts in this period. Recharge declined by approximatively 49% and stored groundwater by 24% over the study period.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomokazu Haraguchi
2007-10-01
Full Text Available A simulation study was carried out to describe effects of climate change on cropgrowth and irrigation water demand for a wheat-maize cropping sequence in aMediterranean environment of Turkey. Climate change scenarios were projected using dataof the three general circulation models—GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI—for theperiod of 1990 to 2100 and one regional climate model—RCM—for the period of 2070 to2079. Potential impacts of climate change based on GCMs data were estimated for the A2scenario in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. The forcing data for theboundary condition of the RCM were given by the MRI model. Daily CGCM2 and RCMdata were used for computations of water balance and crop development. Predictionsderived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth in this study coveredthe period of 2070 to 2079 relative to the baseline period of 1994 to 2003. The effects ofclimate change on water demand and on wheat and maize yields were predicted using thedetailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model. Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the periodof 1990 to 2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models,respectively. The CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models projected a temperature rise of 4.3,5.3 and 3.1 oC, respectively by 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higherevaporative demand of the atmosphere. However, actual evapotranspiration (ETa fromwheat cropland under a doubling CO2 concentration for the period of 2070 to 2079 wasSensors 2007, 7 2298 predicted to decrease by about 28 and 8% relative to the baseline period based on the CGCM2 and RCM data, respectively. According to these models, irrigation demand by wheat would be higher for the same period due to a decrease in precipitation. Both ETa and irrigation water for maize cropland were projected to decrease by 24 and 15
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Riad Sultan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available While electricity from fossil fuels is among a major source of greenhouse gases and global warming, it is also a key resource in the industrial sector geared towards exports and economic growth. This study attempts to examine the export-GDP nexus and electricity-GDP nexus in addition to a supplementary hypothesis between exports and electricity in Mauritius for the period of 1970-2009. An augmented neo-classical aggregate production model is used. The ARDL bounds test and the Johansen cointegration test confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between these variables. The multivariate Granger-causality analysis indicates that electricity and exports Granger-cause economic growth in the long-run. Electricity remains a significant causal variable in the short-run and is also found to lead exports. The empirical findings suggest that conserving electricity as a climate policy may not be conducive for exports and economic growth. The use of renewable sources for electricity may be the right option.
Glato, Kodjo; Aidam, Atsou; Kane, Ndjido Ardo; Bassirou, Diallo; Couderc, Marie; Zekraoui, Leila; Scarcelli, Nora; Barnaud, Adeline; Vigouroux, Yves
2017-01-01
Sub-Saharan agriculture has been identified as vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Adaptation of agriculture has been suggested as a way to maintain productivity. Better knowledge of intra-specific diversity of varieties is prerequisites for the successful management of such adaptation. Among crops, root and tubers play important roles in food security and economic growth for the most vulnerable populations in Africa. Here, we focus on the sweet potato. The Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) was domesticated in Central and South America and was later introduced into Africa and is now cultivated throughout tropical Africa. We evaluated its diversity in West Africa by sampling a region extending from the coastal area of Togo to the northern Sahelian region of Senegal that represents a range of climatic conditions. Using 12 microsatellite markers, we evaluated 132 varieties along this gradient. Phenotypic data from field trials conducted in three seasons was also obtained. Genetic diversity in West Africa was found to be 18% lower than in America. Genetic diversity in West Africa is structured into five groups, with some groups found in very specific climatic areas, e.g. under a tropical humid climate, or under a Sahelian climate. We also observed genetic groups that occur in a wider range of climates. The genetic groups were also associated with morphological differentiation, mainly the shape of the leaves and the color of the stem or root. This particular structure of diversity along a climatic gradient with association to phenotypic variability can be used for conservation strategies. If such structure is proved to be associated with specific climatic adaptation, it will also allow developing strategies to adapt agriculture to ongoing climate variation in West Africa.
Kreslake, Jennifer M; Price, Katherine M; Sarfaty, Mona
2016-09-07
Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES) are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors. Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test) and behavioral intentions (post-test only) were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages. Respondents (N = 122) reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1) Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p concise language, how climate change affects health conditions and how to engage in protective adaptation behaviors.
Climate Change. Solutions for Australia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Coleman, T.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Karoly, D.; Lowe, I.; McMichael, T.; Mitchell, C.; Pearman, G.; Scaife, P.; Reynolds, A. (eds.)
2004-06-01
The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. This group proposes a set of solutions to lower the risk that climate change will reach a dangerous level.
Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.
1991-01-01
The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs
van Teunenbroek, A.; de Muinck Keizer-Schrama, S. M.; Stijnen, T.; Jansen, M.; Otten, B. J.; Delemarre-van de Waal, H. A.; Vulsma, T.; Wit, J. M.; Rouwé, C. W.; Reeser, H. M.; Gosen, J. J.; Rongen-Westerlaken, C.; Drop, S. L.
1996-01-01
To optimize the growth promoting effect of growth hormone (GH), 65 previously untreated girls with Turner syndrome (TS), chronological age (CA) 2-11 yr, were randomized into 3 dosage regimen groups: A, B, and C, with a daily recombinant-human GH dose during 4 study years of 4-4-4-4, 4-6-6-6, and
Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.
2017-12-01
Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a
Climate change sensitivity of multi-species afforestation in semi-arid Benin
Noulèkoun, Florent; Khamzina, Asia; Naab, Jesse B.; Khasanah, N.; Noordwijk, van Meine; Lamers, John P.A.
2018-01-01
The early growth stage is critical in the response of trees to climate change and variability. It is not clear, however, what climate metrics are best to define the early-growth sensitivity in assessing adaptation strategies of young forests to climate change. Using a combination of field
Population viability of Pediocactus bradyi (Cactaceae) in a changing climate.
Shryock, Daniel F; Esque, Todd C; Hughes, Lee
2014-11-01
A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λs) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λs, and (2) quantify variability in λs based on temporal replication of data. Overall λs was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λs, but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λs estimates. Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.
Macpherson, Cheryl Cox
2014-04-01
One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.
Fernández, M.E.; Gyenge, J.E.; de Urquiza, M.M.; Varela, S.
2012-01-01
More stressful conditions are expected due to climatic change in several regions, including Patagonia, South-America. In this region, there are no studies about the impact of severe drought events on growth and wood characteristics of the most planted forestry species, Pinus ponderosa (Doug. ex-Laws). The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of a severe drought event on annual stem growth and functional wood anatomy of pines growing at different plantation densities aiming to un...
Growth divergence: a challenging opportunity for dendrochronology
Buras, Allan; Sass-Klaassen, Ute; Wilmking, Martin
2017-04-01
Dendrochronology is an essential cornerstone of paleoclimatology and the evaluation of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems. However, a growing body of literature indicates that the standard dendrochronological approach may too rigorously neglect individualistic tree-growth (e.g. Wilmking et al., 2004, Buras et al., 2016). Amongst others, these studies showed convincing evidence that individual trees of the same species sampled at one site expressed different long-term growth patterns and therefore differing climate-growth relationships. This phenomenon is commonly termed growth divergence (GD) and possibly weakens our ability to correctly estimate past climate variability as discussed in the context of the so-called divergence phenomenon (D'Arrigo et al., 2008). In this context, climate change may naturally select for trees on the stand-level which are better adapted to future conditions. Although GD has been reported for several sites, the standard dendrochronological approach yet does not consider the existence of GD. A possible reason for this methodological persistence is the lack of detailed information on the frequency, magnitude, and impact of GD occurrence. To assess GD occurrence and related tree-individual variations in climate-growth response we conducted a global GD study by using 134 ring-width data representing 52 tree species and 16 genera distributed over 115 sites across 22 countries. Our analyses clearly reveal GD to be a common phenomenon as occurring in 85 % of all sites. GD was clearly related to the degree of tree-individual differences in climate-growth response. Respective transfer functions which appropriately accounted for GD by selection of tree-cohorts with a high share of long-term variance on average increased the precision and stability of tree-ring based climate reconstructions. Concluding, incorporation of GD assessments into the dendrochronological approach has a strong potential to improve the precision of our predictions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kyle W. Knight
2014-06-01
Full Text Available An important question in the literature on climate change and sustainability is the relation between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. While the “green growth” paradigm dominates in the policy arena, a growing number of scholars in wealthy countries are questioning the feasibility of achieving required emissions reductions with continued economic growth. This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions over the period 1991–2008 with a balanced data set of 29 high-income countries. We present a variety of models, with particular attention to the difference between territorial emissions and consumption-based (or carbon footprint emissions, which include the impact of international trade. The effect of economic growth is greater for consumption-based emissions than territorial emissions. We also find that over this period there is some evidence of decoupling between economic growth and territorial emissions, but no evidence of decoupling for consumption-based emissions.
Single-crystal growth of Group IVB and VB carbides by the floating-zone method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Finch, C.B.; Chang, Y.K.; Abraham, M.M.
1989-02-01
The floating-zone method for the growth of Group IVB and VB carbides is described and reviewed. We have systematically investigated the technique and confirmed the growth of large single crystals of TiC/sub 0.95/, ZrC/sub 0.93/, ZrC/sub 0.98/, VC/sub 0.80/, NbC/sub 0.95/, TaC/sub 0.89/. Optimal growth conditions were in the 0.5-2.0 cm/h range under 8-12 atm helium. Good crystal growth results were achieved with hot-pressed starting rods of 90-95% density, using a ''double pancake'' induction coil and a 200-kHz/100- kW rf power supply. 36 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kipfmueller, K.F. [Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis, MN (United States). Dept. of Geography; Salzer, M.W. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States). Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
2010-01-15
This study investigated sixty-six 5-needle pine growth chronologies from 1896 to their end years in order to identify potential patterns related to linear trends in ring width. Individual chronology responses to climate were also evaluated by comparing the chronologies with seasonal temperature and precipitation data from 1896 to the present date. Chronologies exhibiting similar patterns of climate response were grouped in order to examine the role of treeline proximity on climate-growth relationships. Ring width measurements for pine sites located in the western United States were obtained from the International Tree Ring Data Bank. Growth indices were compared among all sites in order to assess the relative strength of common signals with increasing distance. Pearson correlations were used to calculate linear trends for each chronology. A cluster analysis of climate response patterns indicated that most chronologies positively associated with temperatures were located near upper treeline and contained significant positive linear trends. The study suggested that 5-needle pine treeline chronologies may be used as predictors in temperature reconstructions. However, care must be taken to determine that collection sites have not been impacted by disturbances such as fire or insect outbreaks. 35 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.
Measuring Sexual Violence on Campus: Climate Surveys and Vulnerable Groups
de Heer, Brooke; Jones, Lynn
2017-01-01
Since the 2014 "Not Alone" report on campus sexual assault, the use of climate surveys to measure sexual violence on campuses across the United States has increased considerably. The current study utilizes a quasi meta-analysis approach to examine the utility of general campus climate surveys, which include a measure of sexual violence,…
Strachan, S.; Biondi, F.
2013-12-01
Tree rings in the American intermountain west are often used for palaeoclimatic purposes, including reconstructions of precipitation, temperature, and drought. Specific seasonal phenomena such as the North American Monsoon (NAM) are also being identified in tree-ring studies as being related to certain growth features in the rings (such as early-onset 'false' latewood). These relationships have historically been developed using statistical relationships between tree-ring chronologies and regional weather observations. In zones near the periphery of the NAM, summertime precipitation may be more sporadic, yet localized vegetation assemblages in the northern Mojave desert and Great Basin regions indicate that these events are still important for some ecosystems which have established in areas where NAM activity is present. Major shifts in NAM behavior in the past may have been recorded by tree rings, and identifying the specific mechanisms/circumstances by which this occurs is critical for efforts seeking to model ecosystem response to climate changes. By establishing in-situ monitoring of climate/weather, soils, and tree-growth variables in Pinus ponderosa scopulorum and Pinus monophylla zones at study sites in eastern/southern Nevada, we are able to address these issues at very fine spatial and temporal scales. Data from two seasons of monitoring precipitation, solar radiation, air temperature, soil temperature, soil water content, tree sap flow, tree radial distance increment, and hourly imagery are presented. Point dendrometers along with sap flow sensors monitor growth in these ponderosa pine around the clock to help researchers understand tree-ring/climate relationships.
On the rigidity of rank gradient in a group of intermediate growth
Grigorchuk, Rostislav; Kravchenko, Rostyslav
2018-01-01
We introduce and investigate the rigidity property of rank gradient in the case of the group $\\mathcal G$ of intermediate growth constructed by the first author. We show that $\\mathcal G$ is normally $(f,g)$-RG rigid where $f(n)=\\log(n)$ and $g(n) =\\log(\\log(n)).$
Maramba, Dina C.; Museus, Samuel D.
2013-01-01
The purpose of this study is to explore how campus climate, ethnic group cohesion and cross cultural interaction influence Filipino American college students' sense of belonging in college. Specifically, we examine the impact of three environmental and behavioral factors on students' sense of belonging: 1) campus racial climate, 2) ethnic group…
Mendivelso, H.A.; Camarero, J.J.; Gutierrez, E.; Zuidema, P.
2014-01-01
We analyzed the effects of climate and drought on radial growth using dendrochronology in seven deciduous tree species coexisting in a Bolivian tropical dry forest subjected to seasonal drought. Precipitation, temperature and a multiscalar drought index were related to tree-ring width data at
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z
2007-07-01
The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonathan D Tonkin
Full Text Available Little work has been done on large-scale patterns of stream insect richness in China. We explored the influence of climatic and catchment-scale factors on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera; EPT richness across mid-latitude China. We assessed the predictive ability of climatic, catchment land cover and physical structure variables on genus richness of EPT, both individually and combined, in 80 mid-latitude Chinese streams, spanning a 3899-m altitudinal gradient. We performed analyses using boosted regression trees and explored the nature of their influence on richness patterns. The relative importance of climate, land cover, and physical factors on stream insect richness varied considerably between the three orders, and while important for Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera, latitude did not improve model fit for any of the groups. EPT richness was linked with areas comprising high forest cover, elevation and slope, large catchments and low temperatures. Ephemeroptera favoured areas with high forest cover, medium-to-large catchment sizes, high temperature seasonality, and low potential evapotranspiration. Plecoptera richness was linked with low temperature seasonality and annual mean, and high slope, elevation and warm-season rainfall. Finally, Trichoptera favoured high elevation areas, with high forest cover, and low mean annual temperature, seasonality and aridity. Our findings highlight the variable role that catchment land cover, physical properties and climatic influences have on stream insect richness. This is one of the first studies of its kind in Chinese streams, thus we set the scene for more in-depth assessments of stream insect richness across broader spatial scales in China, but stress the importance of improving data availability and consistency through time.
Tonkin, Jonathan D.; Shah, Deep Narayan; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Li, Fengqing; Cai, Qinghua; Haase, Peter; Jähnig, Sonja C.
2015-01-01
Little work has been done on large-scale patterns of stream insect richness in China. We explored the influence of climatic and catchment-scale factors on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera; EPT) richness across mid-latitude China. We assessed the predictive ability of climatic, catchment land cover and physical structure variables on genus richness of EPT, both individually and combined, in 80 mid-latitude Chinese streams, spanning a 3899-m altitudinal gradient. We performed analyses using boosted regression trees and explored the nature of their influence on richness patterns. The relative importance of climate, land cover, and physical factors on stream insect richness varied considerably between the three orders, and while important for Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera, latitude did not improve model fit for any of the groups. EPT richness was linked with areas comprising high forest cover, elevation and slope, large catchments and low temperatures. Ephemeroptera favoured areas with high forest cover, medium-to-large catchment sizes, high temperature seasonality, and low potential evapotranspiration. Plecoptera richness was linked with low temperature seasonality and annual mean, and high slope, elevation and warm-season rainfall. Finally, Trichoptera favoured high elevation areas, with high forest cover, and low mean annual temperature, seasonality and aridity. Our findings highlight the variable role that catchment land cover, physical properties and climatic influences have on stream insect richness. This is one of the first studies of its kind in Chinese streams, thus we set the scene for more in-depth assessments of stream insect richness across broader spatial scales in China, but stress the importance of improving data availability and consistency through time. PMID:25909190
Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth
Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja
2015-01-01
This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paoletti E
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Impact of environmental pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems: the activity of the IUFRO Research Group 7.01. The IUFRO RG 7.01 deals with "Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems". Climate change and air pollution are closely linked, although in applied scientific research and even more in political negotiations they have been largely separated. Many of the traditional air pollutants and greenhouse gases have not only common sources, but may also interact physically and chemically in the atmosphere causing a variety of environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects of numerous climate change and air pollution factors may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects due to an array of various synergistic or antagonistic interactions. The net effect varies for different ecosystem types and geographic regions, and depends on magnitude of climate or air pollution drivers, and types of interactions between them. This paper reviews the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests is an opportunity for capturing synergies and avoiding overlaps between two lines of traditional research. This could result in more effective research, monitoring and management as well as better integration of environmental policies.
Feasible climate targets. The roles of economic growth, coalition development and expectations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Richels, Richard G.; Rutherford, Thomas F.
2009-01-01
The analysis presented here follows the design specified by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Transition Scenarios study on achieving climate stabilization goals with delayed participation by developing countries. We use the MERGE model to evaluate the core EMF scenarios for both the international and the US-specific studies. Our results indicate that a radiative forcing target equivalent to 450 ppmv CO 2 -e cannot be met even allowing for full participation and overshoot during the entire 21st century. With delayed participation of developing countries, a target of 550 ppmv CO 2 -e is only attainable with pessimistic assumptions about economic growth, and even then only at very high cost. A target of 650 ppmv CO 2 -e can be met with delayed participation for a more affordable cost. We highlight sensitivities to the core scenarios in two key dimensions: (1) the effect of the unfolding global financial crisis on the rate of economic growth and (2) the willingness of initially non-participating countries to agree at the beginning of the next commitment period (i.e. 2012) to join the coalition at a pre-specified date in the future. We find that while the recession does not fundamentally change the crucial role of developing country involvement, advance agreement on their part to future targets could substantially reduce costs for all countries. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kodjo Glato
Full Text Available Sub-Saharan agriculture has been identified as vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Adaptation of agriculture has been suggested as a way to maintain productivity. Better knowledge of intra-specific diversity of varieties is prerequisites for the successful management of such adaptation. Among crops, root and tubers play important roles in food security and economic growth for the most vulnerable populations in Africa. Here, we focus on the sweet potato. The Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas was domesticated in Central and South America and was later introduced into Africa and is now cultivated throughout tropical Africa. We evaluated its diversity in West Africa by sampling a region extending from the coastal area of Togo to the northern Sahelian region of Senegal that represents a range of climatic conditions. Using 12 microsatellite markers, we evaluated 132 varieties along this gradient. Phenotypic data from field trials conducted in three seasons was also obtained. Genetic diversity in West Africa was found to be 18% lower than in America. Genetic diversity in West Africa is structured into five groups, with some groups found in very specific climatic areas, e.g. under a tropical humid climate, or under a Sahelian climate. We also observed genetic groups that occur in a wider range of climates. The genetic groups were also associated with morphological differentiation, mainly the shape of the leaves and the color of the stem or root. This particular structure of diversity along a climatic gradient with association to phenotypic variability can be used for conservation strategies. If such structure is proved to be associated with specific climatic adaptation, it will also allow developing strategies to adapt agriculture to ongoing climate variation in West Africa.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mitra Rahmani
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Introduction The global climate is changing and, despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, weather variation is inevitable. Meanwhile, agriculture as a major water consumer will require adaptation to these variations, along with other challenges, to guarantee its persistence and sustainability. Given the arid and semi-arid climate of Iran, water, as a main limiting factor for agricultural production, plays an important role in determining the type of farming activities (Osamu et al., 2005. Crop water requirements and evapotranspiration are the main cause of water consumption in agricultural sector, the both accepted to face a dramatic increase in future under influence of increasing temperatures resulting from climate change (Koocheki et al., 2001. In this regard, the foreknowledge about future changes in climate and its effects on agricultural water use can be helpful for farmers and decision-makers. This study aimed to evaluate the climatic conditions of Birjand plain in the next two decades, and to investigate the effects of climate change on water consumption of wheat and barley as two main crops in this region. Materials and methods In the present survey, the effects of estimated climate change in Birjand plain on water requirement of wheat and barley and wheat yield in the 2010-2039 period were studied. Based on average weather data for the last thirty years from Birjand synoptic stations, climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation for the time period of 2010-2039 were simulated with LARS-WG5 using A1 scenario confirmed by the IPCC. Wind speed and relative humidity also were estimated for the future period. Common planting and harvesting dates were obtained from local farmers and Birjand Agriculture Organization and duration and crop coefficients (Kc for early, developmental, middle and final crop growth stages in the current period were extracted from FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. For the future period
Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg
2014-05-01
The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological
Modeling and assessing international climate financing
Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng
2016-06-01
Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.
[Climatic suitability of citrus in subtropical China].
Duan, Hai-Lai; Qian, Huai-Sui; Li, Ming-Xia; Du, Yao-Dong
2010-08-01
By applying the theories of ecological suitability and the methods of fuzzy mathematics, this paper established a climatic suitability model for citrus, calculated and evaluated the climatic suitability and its spatiotemporal differences for citrus production in subtropical China, and analyzed the climatic suitability of citrus at its different growth stages and the mean climatic suitability of citrus in different regions of subtropical China. The results showed that the citrus in subtropical China had a lower climatic suitability and a higher risk at its flower bud differentiation stage, budding stage, and fruit maturity stage, but a higher climatic suitability and a lower risk at other growth stages. Cold damage and summer drought were the key issues affecting the citrus production in subtropical China. The citrus temperature suitability represented a latitudinal zonal pattern, i. e., decreased with increasing latitude; its precipitation suitability was high in the line of "Sheyang-Napo", medium in the southeast of the line, low in the northwest of the line, and non in high mountainous area; while the sunlight suitability was in line with the actual duration of sunshine, namely, higher in high-latitude areas than in low-latitude areas, and higher in high-altitude areas than in plain areas. Limited by temperature factor, the climatic suitability was in accordance with temperature suitability, i. e., south parts had a higher suitability than north parts, basically representing latitudinal zonal pattern. From the analysis of the inter-annual changes of citrus climatic suitability, it could be seen that the citrus climatic suitability in subtropical China was decreasing, and had obvious regional differences, suggesting that climate change could bring about the changes in the regions suitable for citrus production and in the key stages of citrus growth.
Resolving nanoparticle growth mechanisms from size- and time-dependent growth rate analysis
Pichelstorfer, Lukas; Stolzenburg, Dominik; Ortega, John; Karl, Thomas; Kokkola, Harri; Laakso, Anton; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.; Smith, James N.; McMurry, Peter H.; Winkler, Paul M.
2018-01-01
Atmospheric new particle formation occurs frequently in the global atmosphere and may play a crucial role in climate by affecting cloud properties. The relevance of newly formed nanoparticles depends largely on the dynamics governing their initial formation and growth to sizes where they become important for cloud microphysics. One key to the proper understanding of nanoparticle effects on climate is therefore hidden in the growth mechanisms. In this study we have developed and successfully tested two independent methods based on the aerosol general dynamics equation, allowing detailed retrieval of time- and size-dependent nanoparticle growth rates. Both methods were used to analyze particle formation from two different biogenic precursor vapors in controlled chamber experiments. Our results suggest that growth rates below 10 nm show much more variation than is currently thought and pin down the decisive size range of growth at around 5 nm where in-depth studies of physical and chemical particle properties are needed.
Anderson, G.
2012-04-01
Climate Services for Development Planning and Implementation: A Framework for Assessing and Valuing Climate Services Anderson, Glen D. While weather forecasting products have been available globally for decades, the full suite of climate services - including historical and real time observational meteorological data, daily, weekly, and seasonal forecasts, and longer-term climate projections - has only been under development in the last 15 to 20 years. Climate services have been developed and implemented quite quickly in developed countries for public and private sector users. However, diffusion of these tools in developing countries has been slower for several reasons related to 1) lack of awareness of the opportunities and benefits of climate services; 2) spotty record of managing local weather and climate data; and 3) limited resources to build and sustain capacity in providing climate services. The Climate Services Partnership (CSP) was formed during the International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS) in October 2011. The CSP seeks to improve the provision and development of climate services worldwide. During the ICCS, three working groups were formed to carry out the work program of the CSP leading up to the second ICCS in Berlin in September 2012. The Economic Valuation of Climate Services Working Group, chaired by John Zillman and myself, is collaborating on several activities to demonstrate the benefits of climate services and help providers prioritize opportunities for expanding the use of climate services. The proposed paper will provide an overview of the Working Group's activities leading up to the next ICCS and describe specific work that is underway and expected to be completed prior to the EGU meetings. The focal point of the Working Group's activities is the development of matrix to help identify and value the best opportunities for using climate services. Different categories of climate services will be listed in rows and potential users of
Africa - Up in smoke? The second report from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simms, A.; Reid, H.; Murphy, M.
2005-06-01
'natural' disasters and the obstacles they pose to poverty reduction. Quite recently, governments agreed at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in January 2005 that, 'Disasters in Africa pose a major obstacle to the African continent's efforts to achieve sustainable development.' Unfortunately, even this level of awareness is not the same as having a coherent and adequately funded approach to tackling the problem. Recently the role of developing new technology has been strongly emphasised. In particular, governments have focused on how to improve weather forecasting in Africa. There is a consensus among development groups, however, that a greater and more urgent challenge is strengthening communities from the bottom-up, and building on their own coping strategies to live with global warming. The need to give much more support to small-scale farming comes up again and again from the field experience of development groups, along with the priority for access to energy from sustainable sources. It is believed that it is not necessary to wait years for more research on climate change before investing in disaster risk reduction. Governments have agreed on the need for action, and tools and methods for protecting communities from disasters are well developed. Now they need to be employed immediately in African countries and communities on a much greater scale. At the moment, spending priorities are perverse. For every $1 spent on preparing for disaster, a further $7 is saved in the cost of recovering from it. Yet, requests for resources to prepare for disasters before the great floods went seriously under-funded, leaving a huge disaster-relief bill to be paid after the floods. This Report finds that concerns about the effects of climate change on rural African societies are more than justified. Climate change is happening, and it is affecting livelihoods that depend on the natural environment, which, in Africa, means nearly everyone. However, even without adequate support
Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea
Lauria, Valentina; Attrill, Martin J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Brown, Andrew; Edwards, Martin; Votier, Stephen C.
2012-01-01
Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales. PMID:23091621
Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Valentina Lauria
Full Text Available Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193. Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014 as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05. Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea, emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.
Foster, J. R.; D'Amato, A. W.; Itter, M.; Reinikainen, M.; Curzon, M.
2017-12-01
The terrestrial carbon cycle is perturbed when disturbances remove leaf biomass from the forest canopy during the growing season. Changes in foliar biomass arise from defoliation caused by insects, disease, drought, frost or human management. As ephemeral disturbances, these often go undetected and their significance to models that predict forest growth from climatic drivers remains unknown. Here, we seek to distinguish the roles of weather vs. canopy disturbance on forest growth by using dense Landsat time-series to quantify departures in mean phenology that in turn predict changes in leaf biomass. We estimated a foliar biomass index (FBMI) from 1984-2016, and predict plot-level wood growth over 28 years on 156 tree-ring monitoring plots in Minnesota, USA. We accessed the entire Landsat archive (sensors 4, 5 & 7) to compute FBMI using Google Earth Engine's cloud computing platform (GEE). GEE allows this pixel-level approach to be applied at any location; a feature we demonstrate with published wood-growth data from flux tower sites. Our Bayesian models predicted biomass changes from tree-ring plots as a function of Landsat FBMI and annual climate data. We expected model parameters to vary by tree functional groups defined by differences in xylem anatomy and leaf longevity, two traits with linkages to phenology, as reported in a recent review. We found that Landsat FBMI was a surprisingly strong predictor of aggregate wood-growth, explaining up to 80% of annual growth variation for some deciduous plots. Growth responses to canopy disturbance varied among tree functional groups, and the importance of some seasonal climate metrics diminished or changed sign when FBMI was included (e.g. fall and spring climatic water deficit), while others remained unchanged (current and lagged summer deficit). Insights emerging from these models can clear up sources of persistent uncertainty and open a new frontier for models of forest productivity.
Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J
2014-01-01
The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802
Sphagnum modifies climate-change impacts on subarctic vascular bog plants.
Dorrepaal, E.; Aerts, R.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Callaghan, T.V.
2006-01-01
1. Vascular plant growth forms in northern peatlands differ in their strategies to cope with the harsh climate, low nutrient availability and progressively increasing height of the Sphagnum carpet in which they grow. Climate change may therefore affect growth forms differentially, both directly and
A Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Capital Inflow and Growth in sub Saharan Africa
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chimere Okechukwu Iheonu
2017-09-01
Full Text Available This study empirically analysed the impact of capital inflow on growth in sub Saharan Africa employing the Pooled Mean Group estimator from the years 1985 to 2015. The study utilised Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, Official Development Assistance and Foreign Aid (ODA and Remittance (REM as indicators of capital inflow. Short run result indicates that the various forms of capital inflow do not have significant impact on growth but while FDI and REM were negatively related to growth, AID was positively related to growth. However, in the long run, FDI and AID have a positive and significant impact on growth while REM has a negative and significant impact on growth in sub Saharan Africa. The study concludes that planning and legislative lags are inferential from the insignificance of capital inflows on growth in the short run, while growth falls in the long run as a result of increase in labour’s income earned in diaspora. The study recommends that in the short run, economic policies should be tailored towards the development of technological based services while in the long run, government should create schemes for citizens in diaspora to participate in, to endear sector-specific economic activities as well as targeting FDI and AID as policy options to spur growth. Finally, specific capital inflow policy options should be employed as not all forms of capital inflow precipitates growth.
Conditions for mould growth on typical interior surfaces
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Eva B.; Andersen, Birgitte; Rode, Carsten
2017-01-01
Prediction of the risk for mould growth is an important parameter for the analysis and design of the hygrothermal performance of building constructions. However, in practice the mould growth does not always follow the predicted behavior described by the mould growth models. This is often explained...... by uncertainty in the real conditions of exposure. In this study, laboratory experiments were designed to determine mould growth at controlled transient climate compared to growth at constant climate. The experiment included three building materials with four different surface treatments. The samples were...
Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2003-01-01
The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs
Climate signal in d13C of wood lignin methoxyl groups from high-elevation alpine larch trees
Reichelmann, Dana; Greule, Markus; Treydte, Kerstin; Keppler, Frank; Esper, Jan
2015-04-01
Tree-rings of high alpine larch trees (Larix decidua) were investigated by a recently established method that measures d13C values of the wood lignin methoxyl groups (Greule et al. 2009). The resulting d13C time series were tested for their potential as a climate proxy. For this 37 larch trees were sampled at the tree line near Simplon Village (Southern Switzerland). They were analysed for their tree-ring width (TRW) and from five individuals d13C of the wood lignin methoxyl groups (d13Cmethoxyl) were measured at annual resolution from 1971-2009 and at pentadal resolution from 1747-2009. The d13Cmethoxyl chronologies were corrected for the anthropogenic change in atmospheric CO2 concentration and its decreasing d13C value. Further, the physiological response of the trees to these atmospheric changes was corrected using the flexible correction factor approach of Treydte et al. (2009), which minimise the residuals with the target climate data. This approach results in the highest so far reported correction factors of 0.032 - 0.036‰/ppmv CO2, which are explained by a low water-use efficiency of deciduous larch. The climate response of the new d13Cmethoxyl proxy shows a significant correlation of 0.75 for the annually and 0.87 for the pentadally resolved data with June to August temperatures. TRW shows also significant correlations with June to August temperatures, but they are lower than the correlations observed for the d13Cmethoxyl chronologies. These results indicate the potential of d13Cmethoxyl chronologies as a summer temperature proxy from high-elevation alpine trees with an even stronger signal than reported from earlier published tree-ring width and maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. References: Greule, M., Mosandl, A., Hamilton, J.T.G., Keppler, F., 2009. A simple rapid method to precisely determine 13C/12C ratios of plant methoxyl groups. Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry, 23(11): 1710-1714. Treydte, K.S., Frank, D.C., Saurer, M
Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.
2014-12-01
To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.
ClimateSpark: An in-memory distributed computing framework for big climate data analytics
Hu, Fei; Yang, Chaowei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Xu, Mengchao; Bowen, Michael K.; Lee, Tsengdar; Song, Weiwei
2018-06-01
The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple-dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.
Rethinking Economics and Education: Exponential Growth and Post-Growth Strategies
Irwin, Ruth
2017-01-01
Education is increasingly vocational and structured to serve the ongoing exponential increase in economic growth. Climate change is an outcome of these same economic values and praxes. Attempts to shift these values and our approach to technology are continually absorbed and overcome by the pressing motif of economic growth. In this article, Ruth…
Climate Investment Opportunities in South Asia
International Finance Corporation
2017-01-01
South Asia is home to three of the top five countries in terms of vulnerability to climate change globally.It thus urgently needs climate investment to enhance resilience and unlock opportunities for low carbon growth. The region is one of the fastest growing regions in the world; however, estimates suggest that climate impacts could reduce its annual gross domestic product by an average o...
Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.
Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C
2017-11-21
Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.
Garofalo, Paolo S.; Fricker, Mattias B.; Günther, Detlef; Forti, Paolo; Mercuri, Anna-Maria; Loreti, Mara; Capaccioni, Bruno
2010-01-01
Three hypogenic caves within the Naica mine of Mexico ( Cueva de los Cristales — CLC, Ojo de la Reina — OR, and Cueva de las Velas — CLV) host spectacular gypsum crystals up to 11 m in length. These caves are close to another shallow cave of the area ( Cueva de las Espadas — CLE), with which they cover a 160 m-deep vertical section of the local drainage basin. Similar to other hypogenic caves, all these caves lack a direct connection with the land surface and should be unrelated with climate. A record of multi-technique fluid inclusion data and pollen spectra from cave and mine gypsum indicates surprisingly that climatic changes occurring at Naica could have controlled fluid composition in these caves, and hence crystal growth. Microthermometry and LA-ICP-Mass Spectrometry of fluid inclusions indicate that the shallow, chemically peculiar, saline fluid (up to 7.7 eq. wt.%NaCl) of CLE could have formed from evaporation, during a dry and hot climatic period. The fluid of the deep caves was instead of low salinity (˜ 3.5 eq. wt.% NaCl) and chemically homogeneous, and was poorly affected by evaporation. We propose that mixing of these two fluids, generated at different depths of the Naica drainage basin, determined the stable supersaturation conditions for the gigantic gypsum crystals to grow. Fluid mixing was controlled by the hydraulic communication between CLE and the other deep caves, and must have taken place during cycles of warm-dry and fresh-wet climatic periods, which are known to have occurred in the region. Pollen grains from a 35 ka-old gypsum crystal of CLC corresponds to a fairly homogenous catchment basin made of a mixed broadleaf wet forest, which suggests precipitation during a fresh-wet climatic period and confirms our interpretation of the fluid inclusion data. The unusual combination of geological and geochemical factors of Naica suggests that other hypogenic caves found elsewhere may not host similar crystals. However, this work shows that
Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability
Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.
2003-01-01
An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brander, Keith
2009-01-01
Fish stocks and the fisheries based on them have always experienced variability due to climate. Changes in temperature, salinity, winds, ocean currents, oxygen, and other factors affect their distribution, growth, survival, and recruitment. Examples of such effects are given for several regions...... of the oceans and the processes are described. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. In addition to climate effects, fisheries are subjected to other anthropogenic stresses, including high...... fishing mortality, loss of habitat, pollution, and introduction of alien species. These interact and may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases. Fisheries production depends on primary production, but to date we have low confidence...
Testing the link between genome size and growth rate in maize
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maud I. Tenaillon
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Little is known about the factors driving within species Genome Size (GS variation. GS may be shaped indirectly by natural selection on development and adaptative traits. Because GS variation is particularly pronounced in maize, we have sampled 83 maize inbred lines from three well described genetic groups adapted to contrasted climate conditions: inbreds of tropical origin, Flint inbreds grown in temperate climates, and Dent inbreds distributed in the Corn Belt. As a proxy for growth rate, we measured the Leaf Elongation Rate maximum during nighttime (LERmax as well as GS in all inbred lines. In addition we combined available and new nucleotide polymorphism data at 29,090 sites to characterize the genetic structure of our panel. We found significant variation for both LERmax and GS among groups defined by our genetic structuring. Tropicals displayed larger GS than Flints while Dents exhibited intermediate values. LERmax followed the opposite trend with greater growth rate in Flints than in Tropicals. In other words, LERmax and GS exhibited a significantly negative correlation (r = − 0.27. However, this correlation was driven by among-group variation rather than within-group variation—it was no longer significant after controlling for structure and kinship among inbreds. Our results indicate that selection on GS may have accompanied ancient maize diffusion from its center of origin, with large DNA content excluded from temperate areas. Whether GS has been targeted by more intense selection during modern breeding within groups remains an open question.
Boersma, B; Rikken, B; Wit, J M
1995-01-01
Catch-up growth of 26 children with growth hormone deficiency during four years of growth hormone treatment, which was started young (< 3 years), was compared with that of 16 children with coeliac disease on a gluten free diet. In children with growth hormone deficiency mean (SD) height SD score increased from -4.3 (1.8) to -1.9 (1.4) and in patients with coeliac disease from -1.8 (0.9) to -0.1 (0.8). Height SD score after four years correlated positively with injection frequency and height S...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fernandez, M. E.; Gyenge, J. E.; Urquiza, M. M.; Varela, S.
2012-11-01
More stressful conditions are expected due to climatic change in several regions, including Patagonia, South-America. In this region, there are no studies about the impact of severe drought events on growth and wood characteristics of the most planted forestry species, Pinus ponderosa (Doug. ex-Laws). The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of a severe drought event on annual stem growth and functional wood anatomy of pines growing at different plantation densities aiming to understand how management practices can help to increase their adaptability to climate change. Growth magnitude and period, specific hydraulic conductivity, and anatomical traits (early- and late wood proportion, lumen diameter, cell-wall thickness, tracheid length and bordered pit dimensions) were measured in the ring 2008-2009, which was formed during drought conditions. This drought event decreased annual stem growth by 30-38% and 58-65% respect to previous mean growth, in open vs. closed stand trees, respectively, indicating a higher sensitivity of the latter, which is opposite to reports from the same species growing in managed native forests in USA. Some wood anatomical variables did differ in more water stressed trees (lower cell wall thickness of early wood cells and higher proportion of small-lumen cells in late wood), which in turn did not affect wood function (hydraulic conductivity and resistance to implosion). Other anatomical variables (tracheid length, pit dimensions, early- and late wood proportion, lumen diameter of early wood cells) did not differ between tree sizes and plantation density. The results suggest that severe drought affects differentially the amount but not the function and quality of formed wood in ponderosa pine growing at different competition levels. (Author) 41 refs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joffre V Tandazo-Yunga
Full Text Available Changing climatic conditions impose a challenge both to biodiversity and food security. The effects of climate change affect different aspects of the plant or crop, such as morphological and phenological aspects, as well as yield. The effects of greenhouse conditions might be comparable in some cases to a permanent extreme disturbance in climate and weather, thus, contributing to our knowledge on climate change impacts on plant species. We have investigated the differences for 23 traits in two cultivar groups of an Andean traditional crop, Solanum betaceum, under two different environmental conditions that correspond to the traditional practices in the open field and three cultural managements under greenhouse conditions (no fertilization or control, organic, and mineral. We found that traditional practices in the open field are the less productive. Moreover, in warmer and drier conditions the treatment with organic fertilization was the most productive. Greenhouse conditions, however, delay production. We further identified traits that differentiate both cultivar groups and traits that are linked to either the new climate conditions or the fertilization treatments. Fruit characteristics were quite homogeneous between the two cultivar groups. Overall, our results provide insight on the consequences that climate change effects might exert on crops such as tree tomato, reveal that greenhouses can be a robust alternative for tree tomato production, and highlight the need to understand how different managements are linked to different solutions to fulfil the farmers' demands.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Bošela, M.; Popa, I.; Gömöry, D.; Longauer, R.; Tobin, B.; Kyncl, J.; Kyncl, T.; Nechita, C.; Petras, R.; Sidor, C. G.; Šebeň, V.; Büntgen, Ulf
2016-01-01
Roč. 104, č. 3 (2016), s. 716-724 ISSN 0022-0477 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : abies-alba mill. * western carpathians * time-series * mitochondrial-dna * glacial refugia * forest decline * air-pollution * consequences * quaternary * drought * air pollution * dendroecology * drought * ecology * global warming * plant-climate interactions * post-glacial migration * radial growth * tree decline Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 5.813, year: 2016
A Comparison of Jungian, Person-Centered, and Gestalt Approaches to Personal Growth Groups.
Day, Bryon; Matthes, William
1992-01-01
Compares Jungian approach to personal growth groups to Person-centered and Gestalt approaches. Notes similarities, though Jungian approach adds dimension of "cognitive map" not found in other two. Notes that cognitive map uses constructs from Jung's theory of individuation process, hypothesizing that integration of these constructs into…
Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)
2008-06-15
The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)
Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.
Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine
2017-07-01
How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will
Allen, C. D.; Williams, P.
2012-12-01
Ongoing climate changes are increasingly affecting the world's forests, particularly including high latitude and high elevation coniferous forests. Although forest growth has improved in some regions due to greater growing season length and warmth (perhaps along with increased atmospheric CO2 or N), large growth declines or increased mortality from droughts or hotter temperatures also are being observed. We present and interpret information on regional variation in climate-tree growth relationships and trends, and on patterns and trends of climate-related forest disturbances, from western North America. From 235 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we show that tree-ring growth records from warmer southwestern sites are more sensitive to temperature than tree-ring growth records from cooler southwestern sites. Assessment of 59 tree-ring records from 11 species in the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest shows that trees growing in cool places respond positively to increased temperature and trees in warm places respond negatively, implying that trees historically not sensitive to temperature may become sensitive as mean temperatures warm. An analysis of 59 white spruce populations in Alaska supports the hypothesis that warming has caused tree growth to lose sensitivity to cold temperatures. Comparing ring widths to temperature during just the coldest 50% of years during the 20th century, tree growth was sensitive to cold temperatures, and this effect was strongest at the coldest sites; whereas during the warmest 50% of years, trees were not at all sensitive to cold temperatures, even at the cold sites. Drought and vapor pressure deficit are among the variables that emerge as being increasingly important to these Alaska boreal forests as mean temperatures rise. Most recently, from 346 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we establish a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis
Growth Response of Silver Fir and Bosnian Pine from Kosovo
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elvin Toromani
2010-06-01
Full Text Available Background and Purpose: This paper explore the growth-climate relationships in total ring width chronologies of silver fir (Abies alba Mill. and Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii Christ. The objective of this study is to quantify the climate influence on radial growth of both species. The relationships between climate and ring widths were analyzed using extreme growing years (called pointer years, simple correlations and response functions analysis (bootstrapped coefficients. The objectives of this study were: (1 to define the pattern of climatic response of each species, (2 to highlight the influence of local ecological conditions on tree's growth, and (3 to compare the response of silver fir and Bosnian pine to climate. Responses of total ring width to climate were estimated by establishing the mean relationship between growth and climate through simple correlations analysis and bootstrapped response functions. The response to climatic variability was also assessed by analyzing pointer years which correspond to abrupt changes in growth pattern and revealing the tree-growth response to extreme climatic events. For the period 1908-2008 the mean sensitivity (MS of total ring width chronology for Bosnian pine (0.209 was higher than silver fir (0.169 suggesting that Bosnian pine is more sensitive to climate (pointer years were more frequent in ring width chronology of Bosnian pine than in silver fir ring width chronology. The high values of first-order autocorrelations for Bosnian pine (0.674 indicated a strong dependence of current growth on the previous year’s growth. Pointer years analysis underlined the high sensitivity to spring temperatures and precipitation for both species. Radial growth for both species depends strongly on spring climate variables (temperatures and precipitation which play a significant role particularly for earlywood production. Material and Methods: We selected 12 silver fir trees and 15 Bosnian pine trees and took two 5
Our knowledge on climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.
1991-01-01
A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps
Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.
2018-01-01
Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the
A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change
Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet
2013-04-01
Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change
Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch
2014-01-01
Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...
A Multicultural Personal Growth Group as a Pedagogical Strategy with Graduate Counseling Students
Johnson, Jennifer M.; Lambie, Glenn W.
2012-01-01
The present study investigated a six-week multicultural personal growth group as a pedagogical strategy to support first-year graduate counseling students' (N = 20) levels of ethnic identity development (Phinney & Ong, 2007) and social-cognitive maturity (Hy & Loevinger, 1996). Students' levels of ethnic identity and social-cognitive development…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Regis Wendpouire Oubida
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Local adaptation to climate in temperate forest trees involves the integration of multiple physiological, morphological, and phenological traits. Latitudinal clines are frequently observed for these traits, but environmental constraints also track longitude and altitude. We combined extensive phenotyping of 12 candidate adaptive traits, multivariate regression trees, quantitative genetics, and a genome-wide panel of SNP markers to better understand the interplay among geography, climate, and adaptation to abiotic factors in Populus trichocarpa. Heritabilities were low to moderate (0.13 to 0.32 and population differentiation for many traits exceeded the 99th percentile of the genome-wide distribution of FST, suggesting local adaptation. When climate variables were taken as predictors and the 12 traits as response variables in a multivariate regression tree analysis, evapotranspiration (Eref explained the most variation, with subsequent splits related to mean temperature of the warmest month, frost-free period (FFP, and mean annual precipitation (MAP. These grouping matched relatively well the splits using geographic variables as predictors: the northernmost groups (short FFP and low Eref had the lowest growth, and lowest cold injury index; the southern British Columbia group (low Eref and intermediate temperatures had average growth and cold injury index; the group from the coast of California and Oregon (high Eref and FFP had the highest growth performance and the highest cold injury index; and the southernmost, high-altitude group (with high Eref and low FFP performed poorly, had high cold injury index, and lower water use efficiency. Taken together, these results suggest variation in both temperature and water availability across the range shape multivariate adaptive traits in poplar.
Climate change effects on forests: A critical review
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Loehle, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); LeBlanc, D. [Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology
1996-02-01
While current projections of future climate change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree of uncertainty, the potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality, and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models. However, the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests, and they deserve further study and inclusion within forest simulation models.
How realistic is green growth? Sectoral-level carbon intensity versus productivity
Gazheli, A.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Antal, M.
2016-01-01
This study considers the potential conflict between economic growth and climate change mitigation. Some believe green growth is an option, while others think climate goals are incompatible with growth. It does so by developing a sector-based approach to analyze the relation between on the one hand
Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research
Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.
2011-12-01
Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate
Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy
Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.
2015-02-01
Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.
Is Climate Simulation in Growth Chambers Necessary?
Z.M. Wang; K.H. Johnsen; M.J. Lechowicz
1999-01-01
In the expression of their genetic potential as phenotypes, trees respond to environmental cues such as photoperiod, temperature and soil and atmospheric water. However, growth chamber experiments often utilize simple and standard environmental conditions that might not provide these important environmental signals. We conducted a study to compare seedling growth in...
Assessment of aerobic and respiratory growth in the Lactobacillus casei group.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Teresa Zotta
Full Text Available One hundred eighty four strains belonging to the species Lactobacillus casei, L. paracasei and L. rhamnosus were screened for their ability to grow under aerobic conditions, in media containing heme and menaquinone and/or compounds generating reactive oxygen species (ROS, in order to identify respiratory and oxygen-tolerant phenotypes. Most strains were able to cope with aerobic conditions and for many strains aerobic growth and heme or heme/menaquinone supplementation increased biomass production compared to anaerobic cultivation. Only four L. casei strains showed a catalase-like activity under anaerobic, aerobic and respiratory conditions and were able to survive in presence of H2O2 (1 mM. Almost all L. casei and L. paracasei strains tolerated menadione (0.2 mM and most tolerated pyrogallol (50 mM, while L. rhamnosus was usually resistant only to the latter compound. This is the first study in which an extensive screening of oxygen and oxidative stress tolerance of members of the L. casei group has been carried out. Results allowed the selection of strains showing the typical traits of aerobic and respiratory metabolism (increased pH and biomass under aerobic or respiratory conditions and unique oxidative stress response properties. Aerobic growth and respiration may confer technological and physiological advantages in the L. casei group and oxygen-tolerant phenotypes could be exploited in several food industry applications.
Assessment of Aerobic and Respiratory Growth in the Lactobacillus casei Group
Zotta, Teresa; Ricciardi, Annamaria; Ianniello, Rocco G.; Parente, Eugenio; Reale, Anna; Rossi, Franca; Iacumin, Lucilla; Comi, Giuseppe; Coppola, Raffaele
2014-01-01
One hundred eighty four strains belonging to the species Lactobacillus casei, L. paracasei and L. rhamnosus were screened for their ability to grow under aerobic conditions, in media containing heme and menaquinone and/or compounds generating reactive oxygen species (ROS), in order to identify respiratory and oxygen-tolerant phenotypes. Most strains were able to cope with aerobic conditions and for many strains aerobic growth and heme or heme/menaquinone supplementation increased biomass production compared to anaerobic cultivation. Only four L. casei strains showed a catalase-like activity under anaerobic, aerobic and respiratory conditions and were able to survive in presence of H2O2 (1 mM). Almost all L. casei and L. paracasei strains tolerated menadione (0.2 mM) and most tolerated pyrogallol (50 mM), while L. rhamnosus was usually resistant only to the latter compound. This is the first study in which an extensive screening of oxygen and oxidative stress tolerance of members of the L. casei group has been carried out. Results allowed the selection of strains showing the typical traits of aerobic and respiratory metabolism (increased pH and biomass under aerobic or respiratory conditions) and unique oxidative stress response properties. Aerobic growth and respiration may confer technological and physiological advantages in the L. casei group and oxygen-tolerant phenotypes could be exploited in several food industry applications. PMID:24918811
Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before
Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nora Hillyer
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Objective – This article discusses a series of actions taken by the Criss Library at the University of Nebraska at Omaha to implement organizational change, using the ClimateQUAL® survey and facilitated discussions with ThinkTank™ group decision software. The library had experienced significant changes over a five-year period, with a renovation of the facility and three reorganizations resulting in a 50% staff turnover. Recognizing the strain that years of construction and personnel changes had placed on the organization, there was a desire to uncover the mood of the employees and reveal the issues behind low morale, uneasiness, and fear.Methods – In November 2009, the library conducted a ClimateQUAL® survey to develop a baseline to assess the effectiveness of any changes. After the results were distributed to library faculty and staff, a series of two-hour facilitated discussions was held to gather opinions and ideas for solutions using thinkLets, a pattern language for reasoning toward a goal. The group support system ThinkTank™ software was loaded onto computers, and employees were able to add their ideas anonymously during the sessions. Finally, 12 employees (29% completed a four-question survey on their perceptions of the facilitated discussions.Results – The facilitated discussions returned 76 sub-themes in 12 categories: staffing and scheduling issues, staff unity/teamwork, communication, goodwill/morale, accountability, decision-making, policy issues, skills and training, leadership, ergonomics/physical work environment, respect, and bullying. An advisory team culled the 76 sub-themes into 40 improvement strategies. Five were implemented immediately, and the remaining 35 were scheduled to be presented to the faculty and staff via an online survey. Participants’ perceptions of the facilitated discussions were mixed. Eighty-three percent of respondents reported that they did not feel safe speaking out about issues, most
Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to ...
Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. The effects of temperature and SNC were similar in importance on tree growth at all sites. Previous-year DPD during the annual drought period was a key factor limiting growth regionally. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (Topt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that Topt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since ~1990. Growth response to climate is masked by SNC regionally. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift towards wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the Pac
Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview
Richard S.J. Tol
2012-01-01
A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...
Support to the Consultative Group on International Agricultural ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
IDRC congratulates first cohort of Women in Climate Change Science Fellows ... Asian outlook: New growth dependent on new productivity. There is no doubt that ... IWRA/IDRC webinar on climate change and adaptive water management.
Climate and forests - perspectives for the future
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fabian, P.
1991-01-01
The discussion of man's impact upon the forest-climate system requires a more complex view of climate. Beside climate elements in the classical sense (meteorological climate), various chemical substances (chemical climate) play an important role in the system. The meteorological and the chemical climate are closely interrelated as well as linked to the forest ecosystem. Man interferes with these relationships by emitting pollutants and by destroying forests. Both leads to alterations of the chemical climate and thus indirectly to changes of the meteorological climate. Climate changes in turn have an impact on forests. Examples of such regional and global effects, i.e. photochemical smog, the destruction of tropical forests and the growth of the global greenhouse effect are discussed. (orig.) [de
The public's belief in climate change and its human cause are increasing over time.
Milfont, Taciano L; Wilson, Marc S; Sibley, Chris G
2017-01-01
Polls examining public opinion on the subject of climate change are now commonplace, and one-off public opinion polls provide a snapshot of citizen's opinions that can inform policy and communication strategies. However, cross-sectional polls do not track opinions over time, thus making it impossible to ascertain whether key climate change beliefs held by the same group of individuals are changing or not. Here we examine the extent to which individual's level of agreement with two key beliefs ("climate change is real" and "climate change is caused by humans") remain stable or increase/decrease over a six-year period in New Zealand using latent growth curve modelling (n = 10,436). Data were drawn from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a probabilistic national panel study, and indicated that levels of agreement to both beliefs have steadily increased over the 2009-2015 period. Given that climate change beliefs and concerns are key predictors of climate change action, our findings suggest that a combination of targeted endeavors, as well as serendipitous events, may successfully convey the emergency of the issue.
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Alison Jones
Full Text Available One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.
Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray
2010-01-01
One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653
Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray
2010-05-03
One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.
2011-01-01
Background The entomopathogenic anamorphic fungus Beauveria bassiana is currently used as a biocontrol agent (BCA) of insects. Fifty-seven Beauveria bassiana isolates -53 from Spain- were characterized, integrating group I intron insertion patterns at the 3'-end of the nuclear large subunit ribosomal gene (LSU rDNA) and elongation factor 1-alpha (EF1-α) phylogenetic information, in order to assess the genetic structure and diversity of this Spanish collection of B. bassiana. Results Group I intron genotype analysis was based on the four highly conserved insertion sites of the LSU (Ec2653, Ec2449, Ec2066, Ec1921). Of the 16 possible combinations/genotypes, only four were detected, two of which were predominant, containing 44 and 9 members out of 57 isolates, respectively. Interestingly, the members of the latter two genotypes showed unique differences in their growth temperatures. In follow, EF1-α phylogeny served to classify most of the strains in the B. bassiana s.s. (sensu stricto) group and separate them into 5 molecular subgroups, all of which contained a group I intron belonging to the IC1 subtype at the Ec1921 position. A number of parameters such as thermal growth or origin (host, geographic location and climatic conditions) were also examined but in general no association could be found. Conclusion Most Spanish B. bassiana isolates (77.2%) are grouped into a major phylogenetic subgroup with word-wide distribution. However, high phylogenetic diversity was also detected among Spanish isolates from close geographic zones with low climatic variation. In general, no correlation was observed between the molecular distribution and geographic origin or climatic characteristics where the Spanish B. bassiana isolates were sampled. PMID:21521527
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Abbas Abdollahi
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Background: The effects of medicinal plants are variable in different conditions. Here, the antimicrobial effect of 15 medicinal plant species and their dependency on the climatic condition of growth in different geographical and ecological areas of Fars Province were studied. Materials and Methods: In This empirical study, the antimicrobial effect of hydro-alcoholic extract of 15 medicinal plant species was examined against standard bacterial strains comparing to conventional therapeutic antibiotics using disk diffusion assay and serial broth dilution. Results: All Extracts were effective against S.aureus ATCC 25923 growth; also Peganum harmala, Myrtus communis, Mentha pulegium, Mentha spp, and Zataria multiflora extracts were observed to have antimicrobial activity against E.coli ATCC 25922. This antimicrobial activity had partially similar results, comparing to conventional antibioticsConclusion: Medicinal plants produce various amounts of antimicrobial substances under the climatic and ecological conditions of each zone, which must be considered in manufacturing herbal medicines.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Klingholz, Reiner; Toepfer, Klaus
2012-03-15
The world has three big growth problems: The human race has doubled its number in the last 44 years. Their energy consumption has tripled over the same period. And also the emissions of greenhouse gases has grown faster than the number of people. If all the trends continue, they have the potential to disturb the ecological balance on the planet to such an extent that the living conditions of a growing part of humanity will be threatened. In a recent discussion paper by the Berlin Institute for population and development (Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany), the authors address the question of how to find a way out of this 'trilemma of growth'. The discussion paper provides concrete proposals for action for the implementation of the global energy turnaround. The education assumes an important role because it affects not only a moderating effect on the population growth. It also enables the handling of promising future technologies and facilitates the adjustment to the impending consequences of climate change.
Growth, institutions and power groups. The forgotten effects in Sinaloa, 1994-2014
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ezequiel Avilés Ochoa
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Through a non-numerical model, this research identifies the relations of causality revealed by omissions of the power groups that are in charge of political and economic institutions in Sinaloa, and which account for the weak local economic growth. This contribution lies in the use of a methodology that evaluates economic performance based on the subjective assessment of experts’ thinking, who are members of the power elite. For this purpose, postulates of the fuzzy subset theory and the forgotten effects model are introduced. The results suggest that the causes of technological backwardness are a fragile democracy and a weak citizen participation, which reduce growth potential by accumulating degrees of omission. Deficient investment in human capital, technology and research and development leads to insufficient technical progress, educational backwardness, technological stagnation and crime.
Climate change and related activities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-01-01
The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change
The Climate Services Partnership (CSP): Working Together to Improve Climate Services Worldwide
Zebiak, S.; Brasseur, G.; Members of the CSP Coordinating Group
2012-04-01
Throughout the world, climate services are required to address urgent needs for climate-informed decision-making, policy and planning. These needs were explored in detail at the first International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS), held in New York in October 2011. After lengthy discussions of needs and capabilities, the conference culminated in the creation of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). The CSP is an informal interdisciplinary network of climate information users, providers, donors and researchers interested in improving the provision and development of climate services worldwide. Members of the Climate Services Partnership work together to share knowledge, accelerate learning, develop new capacities, and establish good practices. These collaborative efforts will inform and support the evolution and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The Climate Services Partnership focuses its efforts on three levels. These include: 1. encouraging and sustaining connections between climate information providers, users, donors, and researchers 2. gathering, synthesizing and disseminating current knowledge on climate services by way of an online knowledge management platform 3. generating new knowledge on critical topics in climate service development and provision, through the creation of focused working groups on specific topics To date, the Climate Services Partnership has made progress on all three fronts. Connections have been fostered through outreach at major international conferences and professional societies. The CSP also maintains a website and a monthly newsletter, which serves as a resource for those interested in climate services. The second International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS2) will be held in Berlin in September. The CSP has also created a knowledge capture system that gathers and disseminates a wide range of information related to the development and provision of climate services. This includes an online
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jennifer M. Kreslake
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors. Methods Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test and behavioral intentions (post-test only were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages. Results Respondents (N = 122 reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1 Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p < 0.001], individuals with heart disease [p < 0.001], or lung disease [p = 0.019]; and environmental conditions that increase allergy-producing pollen (increased heat [p = 0.003], increased carbon dioxide [p < 0.001]. (2 Strength of certainty that climate change is happening increased significantly between pre- and post-test (p < 0.001, as did belief that climate change affected respondents’ health (p < 0.001. (3 Behavioral intention. At post-test, higher knowledge of heat vulnerabilities and environmental conditions that trigger pollen
Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal
2018-07-01
Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate
Climate impact on the tree growth, vigor and productivity in Siberia
Kharuk, V.; Im, S.; Petrov, I.; Dvinskaya, M.
2017-12-01
Changing climate has an impact on the Siberian taiga forests. We analyzed GPP and NPP trends, growth index, and stands mortality within the Central Siberia (48°- 75°N/80°-115°E). Considered forests included larch-dominant (Larix sibirica, L. dahurica) and "dark needle conifer" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) stands. GPP and NPP trends calculated based on the Terra/MODIS products. Growth index calculations based on dendrochronology data. Water stress analysis based on the gravimetric and microwave satellite data and MERRA-2 database. Analyzed variables included precipitation, air temperature, VPD, drought index SPEI, and root zone wetness. We found positive GPP trends within majority (>90%) of larch-dominant and DNC ranges, whereas NPP trends are positive on the +10C°) temperatures and vegetation period length. During recent years larch experience water stress in the beginning of vegetation period. Tree decline and mortality observed within DNC stands, and that phenomenon regularly coincided with zones of negative NPP trends. Mortality correlated with VPD, SPEI, and root zone moisture content. Bark beetles (including aggressive species Polygraphus proximus, similar to Dendroctonus ponderosae in American forests) attacked water-stressed trees. Geographically, mortality began on the margins of the DNC range (e.g., within the forest-steppe ecotone) and on terrain features with maximal water stress risk (narrow-shaped hilltops, convex steep south facing slopes, shallow well-drained soils). Currently, Siberian pine and fir decline observed within southern range of these species. In addition, air temperature and aridity increase promotes Siberian silkmoth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreak that occurred about one degree northward of formerly range. Observing and predicting aridity increase will lead to the replacement of Siberian pine and fir within southern range of these species with more tolerant species (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Larix spp.).
Climate Change and Rainfed Wheat Production in Iran
A Koocheki; GH kamali
2011-01-01
Abstract This research was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate change on rainfed wheat growth and yield at country level. Weather data generated by a General Circulation model based on the ICCP scenarios for the target years of 2025 and 2050. Daily weather data including minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation and radiation were used as the inputs of a growth simulation model for rainfed after calibration and validation for predicting wheat yield under current climatic con...
Cadby, Chloé D; Jones, Susan M; Wapstra, Erik
2014-04-01
In reptiles, the thermal environment during embryonic development affects offspring phenotypic traits and potentially offspring fitness. In viviparous species, mothers can potentially manipulate the embryonic thermal environment through their basking behaviour and, thus, may be able to manipulate offspring phenotype and increase offspring fitness. One way in which mothers can maximise offspring phenotype (and thus potentially affect offspring fitness) is by fine-tuning their basking behaviour to the environment in order to buffer the embryo from deleterious developmental temperatures. In widespread species, it is unclear whether populations that have evolved under different climatic conditions will exhibit different maternal behaviours and/or thermal effects on offspring phenotype. To test this, we provided extended or reduced basking opportunity to gravid spotted skinks (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and their offspring from two populations at the climatic extremes of the species' distribution. Gravid females fine-tuned their basking behaviour to the basking opportunity, which allowed them to buffer their embryos from potentially negative thermal effects. This fine-tuning of female basking behaviour appears to have led to the expression of geographical differences in basking behaviour, with females from the cold alpine regions being more opportunistic in their basking behaviour than females from the warmer regions. However, those differences in maternal behaviour did not preclude the evolution of geographic differences in thermal effects: offspring growth varied between populations, potentially suggesting local adaptation to basking conditions. Our results demonstrate that maternal effects and phenotypic plasticity can play a significant role in allowing species to cope in changing environmental conditions, which is particularly relevant in the context of climate change.
Sienko, Magdalena; Petriczko, Elżbieta; Zajaczek, Stanislaw; Zygmunt-Gorska, Agata; Starzyk, Jerzy; Korpysz, Alicja; Petriczko, Jan; Walczak, Alicja; Walczak, Mieczysław
2017-12-01
Silver-Russell Syndrome is both clinically and genetically a heterogeneous syndrome. Among the most important dysmorphic features of this condition are: a triangular shaped face with a small mandible, a prominent frontal eminence, a thin vermilion border with downward-pointing lip corners, clino- and brachydactyly of the 5th fingers as well as body asymmetry. The most well-known genetic mutations in this syndrome are: the 11p15 epimutation (20-60% patients) and the maternal uniparental chromosome 7 disomy present in 7% to 15% of patients. Children with SRS have severely impaired physical growth - intrauterine and after birth. This, together with the aforementioned dysmorphic features, forms the main diagnostic criteria. The study group consisted of 12 children treated with growth hormone, aged 2 to 17 (8.9±4.0 years), therein, all of whom met the phenotype diagnostic criteria by Wollmann and Price. The effects of growth hormone therapy on somatic development of these children are also presented. Height and weight improved as a result of growth hormone treatment, but the effects were significantly worse than in children with IUGR. Children from the study group presented also a smaller an improvement in growth velocity than children from the control group, but the difference was statistically insignificant. Growth hormone therapy accelerates the growth of children with SRS but to a smaller extent than the growth of children born with intrauterine growth retardation without dysmorphic features.
Growth Response of Silver Fir and Bosnian Pine from Kosovo
Elvin Toromani; Faruk Bojaxhi
2010-01-01
Background and Purpose: This paper explore the growth-climate relationships in total ring width chronologies of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii Christ). The objective of this study is to quantify the climate influence on radial growth of both species. The relationships between climate and ring widths were analyzed using extreme growing years (called pointer years), simple correlations and response functions analysis (bootstrapped coefficients). The objectives...
Laboratory Studies of the Role of Amines in Particle Formation, Growth and Climate
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
2015-02-07
Organosulfur compounds have a variety of sources, particularly biological processes in the oceans. Their oxidation in air forms sulfur dioxide, which is further oxidized to sulfuric acid, as well as methanesulfonic acid (MSA). While sulfuric acid is a well known precursor to particles in air, MSA had not been regarded as a source of new particle formation. Laboratory studies were carried out under this project that showed MSA forms new particles quite efficiently in the presence of amines and water vapor. The data could be reproduced with a relatively simple kinetics model representing cluster formation and growth, which is promising for representing this chemistry in global climate models. The initial steps in the kinetics scheme are based on quantum chemical calculations of likely clusters. The organosulfur chemistry was introduced into an atmospheric model for southern California and used to predict the impact of going to a fossil-fuel free world in which anthropogenic emissions of SO2 are removed, but the natural processes remain.
Developing resilient green roofs in a dry climate.
Razzaghmanesh, M; Beecham, S; Brien, C J
2014-08-15
Living roofs are an emerging green infrastructure technology that can potentially be used to ameliorate both climate change and urban heat island effects. There is not much information regarding the design of green roofs for dry climates and so the aim of this study was to develop low maintenance and unfertilized green roofs for a dry climate. This paper describes the effects of four important elements of green roofs namely slope, depth, growing media and plant species and their possible interactions in terms of plant growth responses in a dry climate. Sixteen medium-scale green roofs were set up and monitored during a one year period. This experiment consisted of twelve vegetated platforms and four non-vegetated platforms as controls. The design for the experiment was a split-split-plot design in which the factors Slope (1° and 25°) and Depth (100mm, 300 mm) were randomized to the platforms (main plots). Root depth and volume, average height of plants, final dry biomass and ground cover, relative growth rate, final dry shoot-root ratio, water use efficiency and leaf succulence were studied during a twelve month period. The results showed little growth of the plants in media type A, whilst the growth was significant in both media types B and C. On average, a 90% survival rate of plants was observed. Also the growth indices indicated that some plants can grow efficiently in the harsh environment created by green roofs in a dry climate. The root growth pattern showed that retained water in the drainage layer is an alternative source of water for plants. It was also shown that stormwater can be used as a source of irrigation water for green roofs during six months of the year at the study site. In summary, mild sloping intensive systems containing media type C and planted with either Chrysocephalum apiculatum or Disphyma crassifolium showed the best performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John
2016-01-01
The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.
Annual report to the Working Group on Technology, Growth, and Employment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1985-04-01
A meeting of the Working Group on High Energy Physics was convened in Brussels, Belgium, in July 1984, and impaneled new groups of technical experts to report on long-term planning, technical collaborations, and the identification of administrative obstacles experienced within the Summit countries that impede international collaboration. The charges to these three new groups are contained in this report under the section on the Brussels meeting. The reports prepared by the technical experts were then reviewed at the January 1985 meeting at Cadarache, France, and the results are contained in this report under the section on the Cadarache meeting. The Summit Working Group on High Energy Physics believes progress is being made toward cooperation among the Summit countries in the exploration of scientific and technological development upon which the Summit Heads of State and Government declared at Versailles revitalization and growth of the world economy will depend - to a large extent. At Cadarache, the Group found that, since its establishment, international collaboration has increased in the use of present accelerators and in the planning for future accelerators. The Group also found that there are specific areas of technology in which near-term research cooperation is possible. Finally, the Group identified administrative regulations that hamper effective international collaboration in science and technology and that could be revised or eliminated through coordinated, high level Summit action. The major accomplishment of the Working Group thus far has been the creation of a forum for discussions on collaboration in a major field of science by seven industrialized countries. The Group recommends the continuation of its review of long-term plans for major facilities on an intergovernmental basis
Indirect Climatic Effects of Major Volcanic Eruptions
Hofmann, D. J.
2007-05-01
The direct effects on climate, related to atmospheric emissions to the atmosphere following major volcanic eruptions, are well-known although the sparseness of such eruptions make detailed study on the range of such variations difficult. In general terms, infrared absorption by volcanic emissions to the stratosphere result in local heating early in the event when gaseous sulfur compounds exist. This early period is followed by gas to particle conversion, on a time scale of 1-2 months, promoting the formation of sulfuric acid-water droplets. Coagulation and droplet growth result in the "volcanic stratospheric aerosol layer" which is related to the predominant direct climatic effect of large eruptions, the cooling of the troposphere by backscattering of solar visible radiation to space with a recovery time scale of 1-2 years. In this paper we will discuss some of the less-known "indirect" effects of the volcanic stratospheric aerosol on climate. We label them indirect as they act on climate through intermediary atmospheric constituents. The intermediaries in the volcanic indirect climatic effect are generally atmospheric greenhouse gases or other atmospheric gases and conditions which affect greenhouse gases. For example, cooling of the troposphere following major eruptions reduces the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide related to respiration by the terrestrial biosphere. In addition, redirection of part of the direct solar beam into diffuse radiation by the volcanic stratospheric aerosol stimulates plant photosynthesis, further reducing the carbon dioxide growth rate. The growth rate of the second-most important atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane, is also affected by volcanic emissions. Volcanic stratospheric aerosol particles provide surface area which catalyzes heterogeneous chemical reactions thus stimulating removal of stratospheric ozone, also a greenhouse gas. Although major droughts usually related to ENSO events have opposite effects on carbon
Arndt, D. S.
2014-12-01
In recent years, much attention has been dedicated to the development, testing and implementation of climate indicators. Several Federal agencies and academic groups have commissioned suites of indicators drawing upon and aggregating information available across the spectrum of climate data stewards and providers. As a long-time participant in the applied climatology discipline, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has generated climate indicators for several decades. Traditionally, these indicators were developed for sectors with long-standing relationships with, and needs of, the applied climatology field. These have recently been adopted and adapted to meet the needs of sectors who have newfound sensitivities to climate and needs for climate data. Information and indices from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center have been prominent components of these indicator suites, and in some cases have been drafted in toto by these aggregators, often with improvements to the communicability and aesthetics of the indicators themselves. Across this history of supporting needs for indicators, NCDC climatologists developed a handful of practical approaches and philosophies that inform a successful climate monitoring product. This manuscript and presentation will demonstrate the utility this set of practical applications that translate raw data into useful information.
Jump, Alistair S.; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco
2017-01-01
Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This
SIMULTANEOUS PRODUCTIVE GROWTH GROUPS (SPGG: INNOVATION ON PAPAYA MITE MANAGEMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marycruz Abato-Zárate
2011-11-01
Full Text Available Grower’s previous experience and their ability to communicate technical information to other growers, allows greater adoption of technologies. Thus, appropriation of technologies of mite management and sampling was evaluated, based on the “Simultaneous Productive Growth Groups (SPGG†technology transfer model. A preliminary diagnosis was made, evaluating the technology transfer achieved by six leading growers showing up continuously to seven meetings carried out from March to July 2010, and also by 19 growers showing up on a more irregular basis. All growers were from the municipality of Cotaxtla and belonged to the Papaya-Product-System of Veracruz, Mexico. Participation, attitude and efficacy of training were evaluated with a survey. Forty-two percent of growers considered the papaya ring spot virus as the main problem and 48 % revealed spider mites as the second one; 96 % used pesticides on spider mites. Participation of the SPGG basic group was 71 %, who agreed on sampling, recording data in sampling forms and using selective acaricides. Seventy percent were able to recognize spider mites from predatory mites and 83 % recognized selective acaricides. Growers considered that sampling can help reduce control costs. The SPGG model allowed building collective knowledge and better decision making by the working group.
Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.
Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier
2014-01-28
Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.
Trend shifts in satellite-derived vegetation growth in Central Eurasia, 1982-2013.
Xu, Hao-Jie; Wang, Xin-Ping; Yang, Tai-Bao
2017-02-01
Central Eurasian vegetation is critical for the regional ecological security and the global carbon cycle. However, climatic impacts on vegetation growth in Central Eurasia are uncertain. The reason for this uncertainty lies in the fact that the response of vegetation to climate change showed nonlinearity, seasonality and differences among plant functional types. Based on remotely sensed vegetation index and in-situ meteorological data for the years 1982-2013, in conjunction with the latest land cover type product, we analyzed how vegetation growth trend varied across different seasons and evaluated vegetation response to climate variables at regional, biome and pixel scales. We found a persistent increase in the growing season NDVI over Central Eurasia during 1982-1994, whereas this greening trend has stalled since the mid-1990s in response to increased water deficit. The stalled trend in the growing season NDVI was largely attributed by summer and autumn NDVI changes. Enhanced spring vegetation growth after 2002 was caused by rapid spring warming. The response of vegetation to climatic factors varied in different seasons. Precipitation was the main climate driver for the growing season and summer vegetation growth. Changes in temperature and precipitation during winter and spring controlled the spring vegetation growth. Autumn vegetation growth was mainly dependent on the vegetation growth in summer. We found diverse responses of different vegetation types to climate drivers in Central Eurasia. Forests were more responsive to temperature than to precipitation. Grassland and desert vegetation responded more strongly to precipitation than to temperature in summer but more strongly to temperature than to precipitation in spring. In addition, the growth of desert vegetation was more dependent on winter precipitation than that of grasslands. This study has important implications for improving the performance of terrestrial ecosystem models to predict future vegetation
Wang, Y.; Li, Y.; Yi, M.; Ye, T.
2015-12-01
The shifts of timing and length of the growing season (TLGS) are important indicators of crop response to climate change. With the help of satellite image data, it becomes feasible to retrieve the TLGS in a spatially continuous manner, which also accommodates local variation of TGSs. In this article, the TGSs of paddy rice in Hunan Province, China since 1995 was retrieved using times-series curves of MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). The change in TLGS and its connection to regional climate change was discussed. The results showed the advance of TGSs of double-season paddy rice and the reduction of GSL in the past 20 years, which is believed to be linked to the rise in the temperature and precipitation in the growth periods. Understanding the local variation and trend of TLGS influenced by climate change is essential for making agricultural adaptive policies to reduce the risk of crop damaged, also can provide key information for studying how multi-hazards affect crop exposure.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rantala, O. E-mail: olavi.rantala@etla.fi
2012-07-01
The study evaluates the impacts of EU climate policy on the emission allowance price, electricity prices, the competitiveness of industry and macroeconomic developments in the third EU emission trading period 2013-2020. The economic impacts of climate policy on Finland are compared to the impacts on the entire EU area. It turns out that due to its cold climate and heating energy demand, higher export intensity of the economy and higher energy intensity of the industry Finland pays a higher price for EU climate policy in terms of output and employment losses than the EU on average. The study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate policy also in the more distant future, assuming that climate policy is tightened further in the 2020s. Climate policy implemented by emission trading means that the long-term economic growth in the EU area depends essentially on emission-free electricity production, and no longer on other growth factors, such as the labour supply and productivity growth. (orig.)
Teng, Li; Xing-Yuan, He; Zhen-Ju, Chen
2014-07-01
Mongolian oak is one of the most important broad-leaved tree species in forests, Northeast China. Based on the methodology of dendrochronology, the variations of tree ring radial growth of Mongolian oak in Qianshan Mountains, south of Northeast China, were analyzed. Combined with the temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations since 1951, the relationships between standardized tree ring width chronology and main climatic factors were analyzed. In this region, the precipitation between April and July of the current year had an significant relationship with the tree ring width of Mongolian oak, and was the main factor limiting the radial growth. The extreme maximum temperature of May was also a key factor influencing the tree ring width, which had a significant on the tree ring width of Mongolian oak. The precipitation in April had a significant and stable relationship with the growth of Mongolian oak since the 1950s. The 'divergence problem' was found in the study area, which the sensitivity of tree growth to summer temperature reduced since the 1980s. The tree growth response to temperature showed a seasonal change from summer to spring.
Climate Change and Water Working Group - User Needs to Manage Hydrclimatic Risk from Days to Decades
Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L. D.; Werner, K.; Wood, A.; White, K. D.
2012-12-01
The Federal Climate Change Water Working Group (CCAWWG) provides engineering and scientific collaborations in support of water management. CCAWWG objectives include building working relationships across federal science and water management agencies, provide a forum to share expertise and leverage resources, develop education and training forums, to work with water managers to understand scientific needs and to foster collaborative efforts across the Federal and non-Federal water management and science communities to address those needs. Identifying and addressing water management needs has been categorized across two major time scales: days to a decade and multi-decadal, respectively. These two time periods are termed "Short-Term" and "Long-Term" in terms of the types of water management decisions they support where Short-Term roughly correlates to water management operations and Long-Term roughly correlates to planning activities. This presentation will focus on portraying the identified water management user needs across these two time periods. User Needs for Long-Term planning were identified in the 2011 Reclamation and USACE "Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resources Planning and Management: User Needs for Improving Tools and Information." User needs for Long-Term planning are identified across eight major categories: Summarize Relevant Literature, Obtain Climate Change Information, Make Decisions About How to Use the Climate Change Information, Assess Natural Systems Response, Assess Socioeconomic and Institutional Response, Assess System Risks and Evaluate Alternatives, Assess and Characterize Uncertainties, and Communicating Results and Uncertainties to Decisionmakers. User Needs for Short-Term operations are focused on needs relative to available or desired monitoring and forecast products from the hydroclimatic community. These needs are presenting in the 2012 USACE, Reclamation, and NOAA - NWS "Short-Term Water Management Decisions: User
Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology
Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix
2018-03-01
During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.
Buckley, Paul J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Painting, Suzanne J.; Terry, Geraldine; Chilvers, Jason; Lorenzoni, Irene; Gelcich, Stefan; Duarte, Carlos M.
2017-01-01
Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared
Buckley, Paul J.
2017-07-11
Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isabelle Villeneuve
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Because of changes in climatic conditions, tree seeds originating from breeding programs may no longer be suited to sites where they are currently sent. As a consequence, new seed zones may have to be delineated. Assisted migration consists of transferring seed sources that match the future climatic conditions to which they are currently adapted. It represents a strategy that could be used to mitigate the potential negative consequences of climate change on forest productivity. Decisions with regard to the choice of the most appropriate seed sources have to rely on appropriate knowledge of morpho-physiological responses of trees. To meet this goal, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss seedlings from eight seed orchards were evaluated during two years in a forest nursery, and at the end of the first growing season on three plantation sites located in different bioclimatic domains in Quebec.The morpho-physiological responses obtained at the end of the second growing season (2+0 in the nursery made it possible to cluster the orchards into three distinct groups. Modelling growth curves of these different groups showed that the height growth of seedlings from the second-generation and southern first-generation seed orchards was significantly higher than that of those from other orchards, by at least 6%. A multiple regression model with three climatic variables (average growing season temperature, average July temperature, length of the growing season showed that the final height of seedlings (2+0 from the first-generation seed orchards was significantly related to the local climatic conditions at the orchard sites of origin where parental trees from surrounding natural populations were sampled to provide grafts for orchard establishment. Seedling height growth was significantly affected by both seed source origins and planting sites, but the relative ranking of the different seed sources was maintained regardless of reforestation site. This
Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila
2004-10-01
Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.
The effect of education on climate change risks
O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.
2017-12-01
Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased
Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate
McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.
2014-12-01
Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.
Targets for global climate policy : An overview
Tol, Richard S.J.
A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater
Old Growth Conifer Watersheds in the Western Cascades, Oregon: Sentinels of Climate Change
Miles, K. M.
2011-12-01
In the Pacific Northwest, where the majority of precipitation falls during the winter, mountain snowpacks provide an important source of streamflow during the dry summer months when water demands are frequently highest. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks in western North America, earlier snowmelt, and subsequently a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows occurring earlier in the water year and drier conditions during the summer. Long-term records from headwater watersheds in old growth conifer forest at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJ Andrews), Oregon, provide the opportunity to examine changes in climate, vegetation, and streamflow. Continuous streamflow records have been collected since 1953, 1964, and 1969 from three small (8.5-60 ha) watersheds (WS2, WS8, and WS9). Over the 40- to 50-year period of study, late winter to early summer monthly average minimum temperatures have increased by 1-2°C, and spring snow water equivalent at a nearby Snotel site has declined, but monthly precipitation has remained unchanged. Spring runoff ratios have declined in by amounts equivalent to 0.59-2.45 mm day-1 at WS2, WS8, and WS9, which are comparable to estimated rates of stand-level transpiration from trees in these watersheds. However, winter runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS2 or WS9, and have actually decreased at WS8 by 2.43 mm day-1 over the period of record. Furthermore, summer runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS8 or WS9, and have increased at WS2 by 0.34 mm day-1 over the period of record. These findings suggest that warming temperatures have resulted in a reduction in spring snowpacks and an earlier onset of evapotranspiration in the spring when soil moisture is abundant, but physiological responses of these conifer forests to water stress and water surplus may mitigate or exceed the expression of a
Dobbertin, M.; Solberg, S.; Laubhann, D.; Sterba, H.; Reinds, G. J.; de Vries, W.
2009-04-01
growth models, values for the various models ranged between 16 and 24 kg (mean 19 kg) carbon uptake per kg nitrogen deposition. Both approaches, although being very different and using a different set of plots and different methods to estimate the N induced carbon uptake in stem wood resulted in very similar results. In summary, our results indicate a clear fertilization effect of N deposition on European forests, mainly on sites with high C/N soil ratios. It is in line with approaches focused on the fate of N in forest ecosystems and with results of N fertilizer experiments but much smaller than had recently been reported in other field studies (De Vries et al., 2008). Increasing temperature was also found to have a positive influence on forest growth, but this effect seemed to be less clear. References: De Vries W., Solberg S., Dobbertin M., Sterba H., Laubhahn D., Reinds G.J., Nabuurs G.-J., Gundersen P. (2008) Ecologically implausible carbon response. Nature, 451, E1-E3. Laubhann, D., Sterba H., Reinds, G.J., de Vries, W. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: An individual tree growth model. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.050. Solberg, S., Dobbertin, M., Reinds, G.J., Lange, H., Andreassen, K., Garcia Fernandez, P., Hildingsson, A., de Vries, W. Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach. For. Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.057.
Zou, Zhiyu; Fu, Lei; Song, Xiuju; Zhang, Yanfeng; Liu, Zhongfan
2014-07-09
Early transition metals, especially groups IVB-VIB metals, can form stable carbides, which are known to exhibit excellent "noble-metal-like" catalytic activities. We demonstrate herein the applications of groups IVB-VIB metals in graphene growth using atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition technique. Similar to the extensively studied Cu, Ni, and noble metals, these transition-metal foils facilitate the catalytic growth of single- to few-layer graphene. The most attractive advantage over the existing catalysts is their perfect control of layer thickness and uniformity with highly flexible experimental conditions by in situ converting the dissolved carbons into stable carbides to fully suppress the upward segregation/precipitation effect. The growth performance of graphene on these transition metals can be well explained by the periodic physicochemical properties of elements. Our work has disclosed a new territory of catalysts in the periodic table for graphene growth and is expected to trigger more interest in graphene research.
The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.
Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.
2012-04-01
Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising
Riechelmann, Dana F. C.; Esper, Jan
2017-04-01
State-of-the-art millennial long temperature reconstructions from the European Alps integrate wood samples of Larix decidua Mill. from the Lötschental and Simplon regions in Switzerland (Büntgen et al., 2005; 2006). Some of the oldest samples that enable the extension of the time-series back into the first millennium AD are obtained from old buildings in Simplon Village, through the precise location of these samples and the elevation of sampling sites remain unknown. We here evaluate the growth characteristics of larch tree-ring width data along a vertical transect in the Simplon and Rhône valleys. 330 trees from nine sites in 985, 1100, 1400, 1575, 1710, 1712, 1900, 2020, and 2150 m asl have been sampled and analysed for their climate signals. The results indicate a stronger temperature signal in the tree-ring width with increasing elevation. The lower the sites the more a drought signal is imprinted in the ring width data. The intermediate site at 1400 m asl does not show any pronounced climate signal. A comparison of growth patterns of living-tree sites with samples from the historical buildings in Simplon Village (Riechelmann et al., 2013) indicates the construction timber to origin from intermediate to higher elevations. We therefore do not expect strong temperature signal from these timbers. References: Büntgen, U., Esper, J., Frank, D.C., Nicolussi, K., Schmidhalter, M., 2005. A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for Alpine summer temperatures. Climate Dynamics 25: 141-153. Büntgen, U., Frank, D.C., Nievergelt, D., Esper J., 2006. Summer temperature variations in the European Alps, A.D. 755-2004. Journal of Climate 19: 5606-5623. Riechelmann, D.F.C., Schmidhalter, M., Büntgen, U., Esper, J., 2013. Extending a high-elevation larch ring width chronology from the Simplon region in the Swiss Alps over the past millenium. TRACE 11:103-108.
Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar
2009-01-01
This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing
High-latitude tree-ring data: Records of climatic change and ecological response
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Graumlich, L.J.
1991-01-01
Tree-ring data provide critical information regarding two fundamental questions as to the role of the polar regions in global change: (1) what is the nature of climatic variability? and (2) what is the response of vegetation to climatic variability? Tree-ring-based climatic reconstructions document the variability of the climate system on time scales of years to centuries. Dendroclimatic reconstructions indicate that the climatic episodes defined on the basis of documentary evidence in western Europe (i.e., Medieval Warm Episode, ca. A.D. 1000-1300; Little Ice Age, ca. A.D. 1550-1850) can be observed at some high-latitude sites (ex., Polar Urals). Spatial variation in long-term temperature trends (ex., northern Fennoscandia vs. Polar Urals) demonstrates the importance of regional-scale climatic controls. When collated into global networks, proxy-based climatic reconstructions can be used to test hypotheses as to the relative importance of external forcing vs. internal variation in governing climatic variation. Specifically, such a global network would allow the quantification of the climatic response to various permutations of factors thought to be important in governing decadal- to centennial-scale climatic variation. Tree populations respond to annual- to centennial-scale climatic variation through changes in rates of growth, establishment, and mortality. Tree-ring studies that document multiple aspects of high-latitude treeline dynamics (i.e., the timing of tree establishment, mortality, and changes from krummholz to upright growth) indicate a complex interaction between growth form, population processes, and environmental variability. Such interactions result in varying sensitivities of high-latitude trees to climatic change
ClimateNet: A Machine Learning dataset for Climate Science Research
Prabhat, M.; Biard, J.; Ganguly, S.; Ames, S.; Kashinath, K.; Kim, S. K.; Kahou, S.; Maharaj, T.; Beckham, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Williams, D. N.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.
2017-12-01
Deep Learning techniques have revolutionized commercial applications in Computer vision, speech recognition and control systems. The key for all of these developments was the creation of a curated, labeled dataset ImageNet, for enabling multiple research groups around the world to develop methods, benchmark performance and compete with each other. The success of Deep Learning can be largely attributed to the broad availability of this dataset. Our empirical investigations have revealed that Deep Learning is similarly poised to benefit the task of pattern detection in climate science. Unfortunately, labeled datasets, a key pre-requisite for training, are hard to find. Individual research groups are typically interested in specialized weather patterns, making it hard to unify, and share datasets across groups and institutions. In this work, we are proposing ClimateNet: a labeled dataset that provides labeled instances of extreme weather patterns, as well as associated raw fields in model and observational output. We develop a schema in NetCDF to enumerate weather pattern classes/types, store bounding boxes, and pixel-masks. We are also working on a TensorFlow implementation to natively import such NetCDF datasets, and are providing a reference convolutional architecture for binary classification tasks. Our hope is that researchers in Climate Science, as well as ML/DL, will be able to use (and extend) ClimateNet to make rapid progress in the application of Deep Learning for Climate Science research.
Effect of power engineering on the climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Legasov, V.A.; Kuz'min, I.I.; Chernoplekov, A.N.
1984-01-01
The influence on global, regional and local climate caused by power plants waste heat and carbon dioxide effluents by organic and nuclear fuel energetics development is investigated in the frame of summarized world energy product in growth long-term forecasts until the year 2100. Conclusion on the significance of energetics as a climate modification factor and necessity to form energy production development strategy is made with due regard for possible climatic consequences. Importance of investigation of possible climatic effects of atmospheric electroconductivity changes is stresses as caused by nuclear fuel cycle plants emission of 85 Kr. Climatic factors quantitative analysis methology is proposed in the problem of safe energy production development
Provenance-specific growth responses to drought and air warming in three European oak species
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arend, Matthias; Kuster, Thomas; Gunthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias
2011-03-15
This study evaluated oak growth responses to air warming through research conducted with species coming from climatically different sites submitted to differing climates including periodic drought and air warming. Results showed different responses to drought and air warming as an adaptation to the conditions, and differences in growth response from one provenance to another were found but local climate factors were not responsible. This study highlighted that provenance was important to growth responses and it will have to be taken into account for regeneration of oaks in a changed climate if these results are confirmed.
EDF group - Reference Document 2007
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2008-01-01
The EDF Group is a leading player in the European energy industry, active in all areas of the electricity value chain, from generation to trading and network management. The leader in the French electricity market, the Group also has solid positions in the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy, with a portfolio of 38.5 million European customers and a generation fleet which is unique in the world. It intends to play a major role in the global revival of nuclear and is increasingly active in the gas chain. The Group has a sound business model, evenly balanced between regulated and deregulated activities. Given its R and D capability, its track record and expertise in nuclear, fossil-fired and hydro generation and in renewable energies, together with its energy eco-efficiency offers, EDF is well placed to deliver competitive solutions to reconcile sustainable economic growth and climate preservation. This document is EDF Group's Reference Document and Annual Financial Report for the year 2007. It contains information about Group profile, governance, business, investments, property, plant and equipment, management, financial position, human resources, shareholders, etc. The document includes the 2008 half-year financial report and consolidated financial statements, and the report drafted by the Statutory Auditors
Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray
2010-01-01
One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Kepp...
Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees.
Vlam, Mart; Baker, Patrick J; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Zuidema, Pieter A
2014-04-01
Climate change effects on growth rates of tropical trees may lead to alterations in carbon cycling of carbon-rich tropical forests. However, climate sensitivity of broad-leaved lowland tropical trees is poorly understood. Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) provides a powerful tool to study the relationship between tropical tree growth and annual climate variability. We aimed to establish climate-growth relationships for five annual-ring forming tree species, using ring-width data from 459 canopy and understory trees from a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand. Based on 183/459 trees, chronologies with total lengths between 29 and 62 years were produced for four out of five species. Bootstrapped correlation analysis revealed that climate-growth responses were similar among these four species. Growth was significantly negatively correlated with current-year maximum and minimum temperatures, and positively correlated with dry-season precipitation levels. Negative correlations between growth and temperature may be attributed to a positive relationship between temperature and autotrophic respiration rates. The positive relationship between growth and dry-season precipitation levels likely reflects the strong water demand during leaf flush. Mixed-effect models yielded results that were consistent across species: a negative effect of current wet-season maximum temperatures on growth, but also additive positive effects of, for example, prior dry-season maximum temperatures. Our analyses showed that annual growth variability in tropical trees is determined by a combination of both temperature and precipitation variability. With rising temperature, the predominantly negative relationship between temperature and growth may imply decreasing growth rates of tropical trees as a result of global warming.
Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.
Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D
2017-06-19
Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.
Transcriptome adaptation of group B Streptococcus to growth in human amniotic fluid.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Izabela Sitkiewicz
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Streptococcus agalactiae (group B Streptococcus is a bacterial pathogen that causes severe intrauterine infections leading to fetal morbidity and mortality. The pathogenesis of GBS infection in this environment is poorly understood, in part because we lack a detailed understanding of the adaptation of this pathogen to growth in amniotic fluid. To address this knowledge deficit, we characterized the transcriptome of GBS grown in human amniotic fluid (AF and compared it with the transcriptome in rich laboratory medium. METHODS: GBS was grown in Todd Hewitt-yeast extract medium and human AF. Bacteria were collected at mid-logarithmic, late-logarithmic and stationary growth phase. We performed global expression microarray analysis using a custom-made Affymetrix GeneChip. The normalized hybridization values derived from three biological replicates at each growth point were obtained. AF/THY transcript ratios representing greater than a 2-fold change and P-value exceeding 0.05 were considered to be statistically significant. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We have discovered that GBS significantly remodels its transcriptome in response to exposure to human amniotic fluid. GBS grew rapidly in human AF and did not exhibit a global stress response. The majority of changes in GBS transcripts in AF compared to THY medium were related to genes mediating metabolism of amino acids, carbohydrates, and nucleotides. The majority of the observed changes in transcripts affects genes involved in basic bacterial metabolism and is connected to AF composition and nutritional requirements of the bacterium. Importantly, the response to growth in human AF included significant changes in transcripts of multiple virulence genes such as adhesins, capsule, and hemolysin and IL-8 proteinase what might have consequences for the outcome of host-pathogen interactions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our work provides extensive new information about how the transcriptome of GBS responds
Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.
2016-01-01
Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.
Harzhauser, Mathias; Piller, Werner E.; Müllegger, Stefan; Grunert, Patrick; Micheels, Arne
2011-03-01
The Western Tethyan estuarine oyster Crassostrea gryphoides is an excellent climate archive due to its large size and rapid growth. It is geologically long lived and allows a stable isotope-based insight into climatic trends during the Miocene. Herein we utilised the climate archive of 5 oyster shells from the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO) and the subsequent Miocene Climate Transition (MCT) to evaluate changes of seasonality patterns. MCO shells exhibit highly regular seasonal rhythms of warm-wet and dry-cool seasons. Optimal conditions resulted in extraordinary growth rates of the oysters. δ 13C profiles are in phase with δ 18O although phytoplankton blooms may cause a slight offset. Estuarine waters during the MCO in Central Europe display a seasonal temperature range of c. 9-10 °C. Absolute water temperatures have ranged from 17 to 19 °C during cool seasons and up to 28 °C in warm seasons. Already during the early phase of the MCO, the growth rates are distinctly declining, although gigantic and extremely old shells have been formed at that time. Still, a very regular and well expressed seasonality is dominating the isotope profiles, but episodically occurring extreme climate events influence the environments. The seasonal temperature range is still c. 9 °C but the cool season temperature seems to be slightly lower (16 °C) and the warm season water temperature does not exceed c. 25 °C. In the later MCT at c. 12.5-12.0 Ma the seasonality pattern is breaking down and is replaced by successions of dry years with irregular precipitation events. No correlation between δ 18O and δ 13C is documented maybe due to a suboptimal nutrition level which would explain the low growth rates and small sizes. The amplitude of seasonal temperature range is decreasing to 5-8 °C. No clear cooling trend can be postulated for that time as the winter season water temperatures range from 15 to 20 °C. This may point to unstable precipitation rhythms on a multi-annual to
Global climate change and California agriculture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.
1991-01-01
This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philip Antwi-Agyei
Full Text Available How climate change adaptation practices can constrain development and deliver maladaptive outcomes in vulnerability hotspots is yet to be explored in-depth using case study analyses. This paper explores the effects of climate change coping and adaptation responses in three case study villages across the Central Gonja district of northern Ghana. The study addresses the following research questions: i What are the key climatic and non-climatic stressors confronting households in northern Ghanaian communities? ii How are households adapting to climatic and non-climatic stressors? and iii What are the outcomes of these coping and adaptation responses on development? The study employs a mixed-method approach including key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household questionnaire surveys. Data identified socioeconomic stressors including a lack of access to (and high cost of farm inputs, labour shortages and population growth. Climatic stressors include erratic rainfall, high temperature, droughts and floods. Climatic and non-climatic stressors interact to affect agricultural practices and related livelihoods. The study identified various adaptation measures including extensification and intensification of agriculture, temporary migration, planting of drought resistant varieties, irrigation, and livelihood diversification. We show that many coping measures (e.g. livelihood diversifications activities such as selling of firewood and charcoal production and adaptation responses (including intensification, extensification and irrigation currently deliver maladaptive outcomes, resulting in lock-ins that could exacerbate future climate vulnerabilities. The paper contributes to the growing literature on adaptation and climate risk management by providing empirical evidence showing how coping and adaptations measures can deliver maladaptive outcomes in vulnerable communities. Keywords: Maladaptation, Climate change and variability
Ten-year diameter and basal area growth of trees surrounding small group selection openings
Philip M. McDonald; Martin W. Ritchie; Celeste S. Abbott
1996-01-01
The effects of small openings in forest stands has interested silviculturists and ecologists for years. Interest generally has centered on the vegetation in the openings, not on that immediately outside of them. Quantitative information on the growth of trees adjacent to group-selection openings, although often mentioned in forestry textbooks as contributing to cost...
Climatic consequences of nuclear war: Working Group No. 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knox, J.B.
1985-12-01
Research needs on the climate consequences of nuclear war were discussed. These include: (1) a better definition of the emissions from massive urban fires; (2) the exploration of prescribed forest burns; (3) the dirty cloud problem; (4) microphysical studies of soot; and (5) simulation of the second summer season after nuclear war
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2016-07-01
A great ambition underlies France's Energy Transition for Green Growth Act: to make France - following on from the Paris Climate Summit - an exemplary nation in terms of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, diversifying its energy model and increasing the deployment of renewable energy sources. This Act provides a unique opportunity both for climate negotiations and for France. It sets goals and implements operational solutions which can be shared with different regions, companies, researchers, the public and anyone with a long-standing commitment to fighting climate change. The Energy Transition for Green Growth Act and its attendant action plans are designed to give France the means to make a more effective contribution to tackling climate change and reinforce its energy independence, while striking a better balance in its energy mix and creating jobs and business growth. The texts required for its implementation are operational and support plans are in place. These tools are available to private individuals, businesses and the regions, enabling them to take concrete action. This document summarizes the actions under way: Defining common objectives, Acting together, Renovating buildings, developing clean transport, Tackling waste and promoting the circular economy, Promoting renewable energy, optimising nuclear safety and public information, Simplifying and clarifying procedures
Population viability of Pediocactus brady (Cactaceae) in a changing climate
Shryock, Daniel F.; Esque, Todd C.; Huges, Lee
2014-01-01
• Premise of the study: A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona.
The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing; L'emballement climatique. Le forcage climatique
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, LMD/IPSL, CNRS-UPMC, 75 - Paris (France); Acot, P. [Institut d' histoire et de philosophie des sciences et des techniques (IHPST), CNRS-Univ. Paris-1-ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Friedlingstein, P. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Jouzel, J. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75 - Paris (France); Raynaud, D. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (UMR 5183), 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres cedex (France); Thuiller, W. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Lab. d' Ecologie Alpine, CNRS-Univ. Grenoble-1, 38 (France); Le Treut, H. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique du CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Houssais, M.N. [Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat Experimentation et Approches Numerique (LOCEAN / IPSL), 75 - Paris (France); Duplessy, J.C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Royer, J.F.; Douville, H. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Barberousse, A. [Institut d' Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques, CNRS, ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Quinon, P
2007-03-15
The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)
Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie
2014-01-01
Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential
Nguyen, Thi; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Navie, Sheldon; O'Donnell, Chris; Adkins, Steve
2017-04-01
Climate change will have a considerable impact upon the processes that moderate weed invasion, in particular to that of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.). This study evaluated the performance of two Australian biotypes of parthenium weed under a range of environmental conditions including soil moisture (100 and 50% of field capacity), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration (390 and 550 ppm), and temperature (35/20 and 30/15 °C/day/night). Measurements were taken upon growth, reproductive output, seed biology (fill, viability and dormancy) and soil seed longevity. Parthenium weed growth and seed output were significantly increased under the elevated CO 2 concentration (550 ppm) and in the cooler (30/15 °C) and wetter (field capacity) conditions. However, elevated CO 2 concentration could not promote growth or seed output when the plants were grown under the warmer (35/20 °C) and wetter conditions. Warm temperatures accelerated the growth of parthenium weed, producing plants with greater height biomass but with a shorter life span. Warm temperatures also affected the reproductive output by promoting both seed production and fill, and promoting seed longevity. Dryer soil conditions (50% of field capacity) also promoted the reproductive output, but did not retain high seed fill or promote seed longevity. Therefore, the rising temperatures, the increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the longer periods of drought predicted under climate change scenarios are likely to substantially enhance the growth and reproductive output of these two Australian parthenium weed biotypes. This may facilitate the further invasion of this noxious weed in tropical and sub-tropical natural and agro-ecosystems.
Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth
Moore, F.; Turner, D.
2014-12-01
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.
Cluster analysis of Southeastern U.S. climate stations
Stooksbury, D. E.; Michaels, P. J.
1991-09-01
A two-step cluster analysis of 449 Southeastern climate stations is used to objectively determine general climate clusters (groups of climate stations) for eight southeastern states. The purpose is objectively to define regions of climatic homogeneity that should perform more robustly in subsequent climatic impact models. This type of analysis has been successfully used in many related climate research problems including the determination of corn/climate districts in Iowa (Ortiz-Valdez, 1985) and the classification of synoptic climate types (Davis, 1988). These general climate clusters may be more appropriate for climate research than the standard climate divisions (CD) groupings of climate stations, which are modifications of the agro-economic United States Department of Agriculture crop reporting districts. Unlike the CD's, these objectively determined climate clusters are not restricted by state borders and thus have reduced multicollinearity which makes them more appropriate for the study of the impact of climate and climatic change.
Turkey's climate policy between ambition and reality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gieler, Wolfgang; Cetinyilmaz, Hakan
2015-01-01
This volume examines the Turkish climate policy and its main influencing factors. In what policy area, the priorities of Turkey between environmental, climate, and growth policies are to be located? What are the shaping factors of Turkish climate policy? What driving torques? In Turkish and international political science analyzes the subject has been previously treated only in basic approaches, so that the volume can be understood as a basic introduction to the Turkish climate policy. [de
Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia.
Berner, Logan T; Beck, Pieter S A; Bunn, Andrew G; Goetz, Scott J
2013-11-01
Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth-climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km(2) ) in northeastern Siberia using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring-width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts ) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy ). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs ) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub-dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P 0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVIs (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982-2007). Both satellite and tree-ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Civil war, climate change, and development: a scenario study for Sub-Saharan Africa
Devitt, C.; Tol, R.S.J.
2012-01-01
This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war
On the growth of atmospheric nanoparticles by organic vapors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yli-Juuti, T.
2013-09-01
Atmospheric aerosol particles affect the visibility, damage human health and influence the Earth's climate by scattering and absorbing radiation and acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Considerable uncertainties are associated with the estimates of aerosol climatic effects and the extent of these effects depends on the particles size, composition, concentration and location in the atmosphere. Improved knowledge on the processes affecting these properties is of great importance in predicting future climate. Significant fraction of the atmospheric aerosol particles are formed in the atmosphere from trace gases through a phase change, i.e. nucleation. The freshly nucleated secondary aerosol particles are about a nanometer in diameter, and they need to grow tens of nanometers by condensation of vapors before they affect the climate. During the growth, the nanoparticles are subject to coagulational losses, and their survival to CCN sizes is greatly dependent on their growth rate. Therefore, capturing the nanoparticle growth correctly is crucial for representing aerosol effects in climate models. A large fraction of nanoparticle growth in many environments is expected to be due to organic compounds. However a full identification of the compounds and processes involved in the growth is lacking to date. In this thesis the variability in atmospheric nanoparticle growth rates with particle size and ambient conditions was studied based on observations at two locations, a boreal forest and a Central European rural site. The importance of various organic vapor uptake mechanisms and particle phase processes was evaluated, and two nanoparticle growth models were developed to study the effect of acid-base chemistry in the uptake of organic compounds by nanoparticles. Further, the effect of inorganic solutes on the partitioning of organic aerosol constituents between gas and particle phase was studied based on laboratory experiments. Observations of the atmospheric
Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer
Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei
2015-01-01
The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.
Conference on climate and water. Vol. 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huttunen, L.
1989-01-01
This book contains the Proceedings of the Conference on Climate and Water under the following groupings: Understanding the climate systems - its variability and potential for change; Climate and hydrological cycle - the effects of climate variability and Change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2003-03-01
This report identifies the greenhouse gas (GHG) reducing potential of the high-tech sector with particular reference to the following 5 key technology convergence groups: biotechnology and bio-products; intelligent systems; information and communications technology; advanced materials; and, nanotechnology. It was noted that Canada's efforts to reduce GHG emissions in the abatement of climate change can drive innovation, stimulate economic growth and attain international leadership in technology solutions. Although Canada's strong economic growth has resulted in the creation of more highly skilled jobs, expansion in innovation and new infrastructure, there is a challenge of preserving the environmental and social quality within communities, and ensuring that productivity within companies does not lapse. In response, the government is shaping policy responses that drive innovation, productivity and prosperity and which help Canadian companies capitalize on emerging global opportunities while minimizing environmental and social impacts. This report includes information on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol, Canada's Climate Change Action Plan and the emerging carbon marketplace. It also describes the role of technology innovation and the opportunity of convergence in spurring innovation. Several actions have been proposed to Industry Canada by different technology sectors to help climate change providers generate innovative solutions, commercialize products and expand market presence. This report includes those initiatives which further promote the convergence, growth and development of different enabling and high-tech sectors to develop climate change solutions; promote the opportunities that are emerging to apply innovative high-tech and enabling technologies to reduce GHG emissions; and help Canada meet its Kyoto commitments. 50 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs
Asplund, Therese
2016-01-01
While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relat...
Age determination in manatees using growth-layer-group counts in bone
Marmontel, M.; O'Shea, T.J.; Kochman, H.I.; Humphrey, S.R.
1996-01-01
Growth layers were observed in histological preparations of bones of known-age, known minimum-age, and tetracycline-marked free-ranging and captive Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris), substantiating earlier preliminary findings of other studies. Detailed analysis of 17 new case histories showed that growth-layer group (GLG) counts in the periotic bone were consistent with known age, or time since tetracycline administration, but were less reliable in other bones. GLG counts were also made in periotic bones of 1,196 Florida manatees of unknown age found dead from 1974 through 1991. These counts were conducted in order to assess variability and to determine relationships among estimated age, size, sex, and degree of bone resorption. Resorption can interfere with accuracy of GLG counts. This effect does not occur until ages greater than about 15 yr and body lengths greater than 300 cm are attained. GLGs were also observed in periotic bones of Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) but were not validated against known-age specimens. Use of GLG counts in the periotic bone is suitable for application to studies of population dynamics and other age-related aspects of manatee biology.
Evaluating Modeled Impact Metrics for Human Health, Agriculture Growth, and Near-Term Climate
Seltzer, K. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Murray, L. T.
2017-12-01
Simulated metrics that assess impacts on human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate were evaluated using ground-based and satellite observations. The NASA GISS ModelE2 and GEOS-Chem models were used to simulate the near-present chemistry of the atmosphere. A suite of simulations that varied by model, meteorology, horizontal resolution, emissions inventory, and emissions year were performed, enabling an analysis of metric sensitivities to various model components. All simulations utilized consistent anthropogenic global emissions inventories (ECLIPSE V5a or CEDS), and an evaluation of simulated results were carried out for 2004-2006 and 2009-2011 over the United States and 2014-2015 over China. Results for O3- and PM2.5-based metrics featured minor differences due to the model resolutions considered here (2.0° × 2.5° and 0.5° × 0.666°) and model, meteorology, and emissions inventory each played larger roles in variances. Surface metrics related to O3 were consistently high biased, though to varying degrees, demonstrating the need to evaluate particular modeling frameworks before O3 impacts are quantified. Surface metrics related to PM2.5 were diverse, indicating that a multimodel mean with robust results are valuable tools in predicting PM2.5-related impacts. Oftentimes, the configuration that captured the change of a metric best over time differed from the configuration that captured the magnitude of the same metric best, demonstrating the challenge in skillfully simulating impacts. These results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models in simulating impact metrics related to air quality and near-term climate. With such information, the reliability of historical and future simulations can be better understood.
Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis
2017-01-01
geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source......How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116...... of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled...
Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Loaiciga, Hugo A
2009-01-01
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.
Hydrological Climate Classification: Can We Improve on Köppen-Geiger?
Knoben, W.; Woods, R. A.; Freer, J. E.
2017-12-01
Classification is essential in the study of complex natural systems, yet hydrology so far has no formal way to structure the climate forcing which underlies hydrologic response. Various climate classification systems can be borrowed from other disciplines but these are based on different organizing principles than a hydrological classification might use. From gridded global data we calculate a gridded aridity index, an aridity seasonality index and a rain-vs-snow index, which we use to cluster global locations into climate groups. We then define the membership degree of nearly 1100 catchments to each of our climate groups based on each catchment's climate and investigate the extent to which streamflow responses within each climate group are similar. We compare this climate classification approach with the often-used Köppen-Geiger classification, using statistical tests based on streamflow signature values. We find that three climate indices are sufficient to distinguish 18 different climate types world-wide. Climates tend to change gradually in space and catchments can thus belong to multiple climate groups, albeit with different degrees of membership. Streamflow responses within a climate group tend to be similar, regardless of the catchments' geographical proximity. A Wilcoxon two-sample test based on streamflow signature values for each climate group shows that the new classification can distinguish different flow regimes using this classification scheme. The Köppen-Geiger approach uses 29 climate classes but is less able to differentiate streamflow regimes. Climate forcing exerts a strong control on typical hydrologic response and both change gradually in space. This makes arbitrary hard boundaries in any classification scheme difficult to defend. Any hydrological classification should thus acknowledge these gradual changes in forcing. Catchment characteristics (soil or vegetation type, land use, etc) can vary more quickly in space than climate does, which
Jump, Alistair S; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco
2017-09-01
Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This
Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Otto, Vincent M.; Loeschel, Andreas; Reilly, John
2008-01-01
This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO 2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost effective climate policy to include a combination of R and D subsidies and CO 2 emission constraints, although R and D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO 2 constraint (i.e. CO 2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that cost effectiveness of climate policy improves if it is differentiated between technologies. Even our rudimentary distinction between CO 2 intensive technologies and non-CO 2 intensive technologies lead to this result. Such differentiated climate policy encourages growth in the non-CO 2 intensive sectors and discourages growth in CO 2 intensive sectors by harnessing positive effects of technology externalities on total factor productivity in the former and letting the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R and D subsidies or combinations of both are used as climate policy instruments. (author)
Phi, Quyet-Tien; Park, Yu-Mi; Seul, Keyung-Jo; Ryu, Choong-Min; Park, Seung-Hwan; Kim, Jong-Guk; Ghim, Sa-Youl
2010-12-01
Twenty-nine P. polymyxa strains isolated from rhizospheres of various crops were clustered into five genotypic groups on the basis of BOX-PCR analysis. The characteristics of several plant growth-promoting factors among the isolates revealed the distinct attributes in each allocated group. Under gnotobiotic conditions, inoculation of pepper roots with P. polymyxa isolates significantly increased the biomass in 17 of total 29 treated plants with untreated plants. Experiments on induced systemic resistance (ISR) against bacterial spot pathogen Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. vesicatoria in pepper by P. polymyxa strains were conducted and only one isolate (KNUC265) was selected. Further studies into ISR mediation by the KNUC265 strain against the soft-rot pathogen Erwinia carotovora subsp. carotovora in tobacco demonstrated that the tobacco seedlings exposed to either bacterial volatiles or diffusible metabolites exhibited a reduction in disease severity. In conclusion, ISR and plant growth promotion triggered by P. polymyxa isolates were systemically investigated on pepper for the first time. The P. polymyxa KNUC265 strain, which elicited both ISR and plant growth promotion, could be potentially used in improving the yield of pepper and possibly of other crops.
Peterson, P.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Pedreros, D. H.; Landsfeld, M.; Verdin, J. P.; Shukla, S.
2013-12-01
CHIRP and CHIRPS are new quasi-global precipitation products with daily to seasonal time scales, a 0.05° resolution, and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. Developed by the Climate Hazards Group at UCSB and scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center specifically for drought early warning and environmental monitoring, CHIRPS provides moderate latency precipitation estimates that place observed hydrologic extremes in their historic context. Three main types of information are used in the CHIRPS: (1) global 0.05° precipitation climatologies, (2) time-varying grids of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and (3) in situ precipitation observations. CHIRP: The global grids of long-term (1980-2009) average precipitation were estimated for each month based on station data, averaged satellite observations, and physiographic parameters. 1981-present time-varying grids of satellite precipitation were derived from spatially varying regression models based on pentadal cold cloud duration (CCD) values and TRMM V7 training data. The CCD time-series were derived from the CPC and NOAA B1 datasets. Pentadal CCD-percent anomaly values were multiplied by pentadal climatology fields to produce low bias pentadal precipitation estimates. CHIRPS: The CHG station blending procedure uses the satellite-observed spatial covariance structure to assign relative weights to neighboring stations and the CHIRP values. The CHIRPS blending procedure is based on the expected correlation between precipitation at a given target location and precipitation at the locations of the neighboring observation stations. These correlations are estimated using the CHIRP fields. The CHG has developed an extensive archive of in situ daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation totals. The CHG database has over half a billion daily rainfall observations since 1980 and another half billion before 1980. Most of these observations come from four sets of global
Site- and Species-Specific Influences on Sub-Alpine Conifer Growth in Mt. Rainier National Park, USA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Myesa Legendre-Fixx
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Identifying the factors that influence the climate sensitivity of treeline species is critical to understanding carbon sequestration, forest dynamics, and conservation in high elevation forest/meadow ecotones. Using tree cores from four sub-alpine conifer species collected from three sides of Mt. Rainier, WA, USA, we investigated the influences of species identity and sites with different local climates on radial growth–climate relationships. We created chronologies for each species at each site, determined influential plant-relevant annual and seasonal climatic variables influencing growth, and investigated how the strength of climate sensitivity varied across species and location. Overall, similar climate variables constrained growth on all three sides of the mountain for each of the four study species. Summer warmth positively influenced radial growth, whereas snow, spring warmth, previous summer warmth, and spring humidity negatively influenced growth. We discovered only a few subtle differences in the climate sensitivity of co-occurring species at the same site and between the same species at different sites in pairwise comparisons. A model including species by climate interactions provided the best balance between parsimony and fit, but did not lead to substantially greater predictive power relative to a model without site or species interactions. Our results imply that at treeline in moist temperate regions like Mt. Rainier, the same climatic variables drive annual variation in growth across species and locations, despite species differences in physiology and site differences in mean climates.
Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change
Kiehl, J. T.
2015-12-01
Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.
Four Sustainability Goals in a Swedish Low-Growth/Degrowth Context
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eléonore Fauré
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Continual environmental degradation and an unfair distribution of environmental burdens and benefits are two great challenges for humanity. Economic growth is often taken for granted when planning for the future. However, it is often argued that maintaining economic growth conflicts with keeping human activities adjusted to ecological boundaries and finite resources, at least for the more-developed countries. With this paper, we present sustainability goals for building and planning in Sweden to be achieved by 2050 in a context of limited or even negative economic growth. These goals should ensure that all groups in society have sufficient resources and a good life within planetary boundaries. We select four goals in a participatory process: two environmental goals related to climate change and land use and two social goals related to welfare and participation. Our results show that achieving the environmental goals will require significant reductions of Sweden’s greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and land use compared to today’s levels. Regarding the social goals, these are, in many aspects, reasonably well fulfilled in Sweden today, although disparities remain between groups of citizens. The main challenge, however, is to ensure that these goals are fulfilled even within environmental limits and if economic growth should halt.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hao Zang
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Determining the response of dominant height growth to climate change is important for understanding adaption strategies. Based on 550 permanent plots from a national forest inventory and climate data across seven provinces and three climate zones, we developed a climate-sensitive dominant height growth model under a mixed-effects model framework. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables that markedly improved model performance. Generally, future climate change had a positive effect on stand dominant height in northern and northeastern China, but the effect showed high spatial variability linked to local climatic conditions. The range in dominant height difference between the current climate and three future BC-RCP scenarios would change from −0.61 m to 1.75 m (−6.9% to 13.5% during the period 2041–2060 and from −1.17 m to 3.28 m (−9.1% to 41.0% during the period 2061–2080 across provinces. The impacts of climate change on stand dominant height decreased as stand age increased. Forests in cold and warm temperate zones had a smaller decrease in dominant height, owing to climate change, compared with those in the mid temperate zone. Overall, future climate change could impact dominant height growth in northern and northeastern China. As spatial heterogeneity of climate change affects dominant height growth, locally specific mitigation measures should be considered in forest management.
Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.
Valerie. Rapp
2004-01-01
Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimesâthe long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...
Western forest, fire risk, and climate change
Valerie Rapp
2004-01-01
Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimesâthe long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...
Energy-environment-development interactions. Report on working group 6
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1997-01-01
Natural resources, including strategic resources as oil or fresh water, have been the cause of disputes and wars among nations. Natural resources have also been catalyzers of conflicts and objectives of military actions. In last decades, new potential sources of conflict have emerged, as high geographical concentration of fossil duels, acceleration of the depletion and pollution of otherwise renewable resources, and the increase of resource scarcity because of higher demands from population growth and larger consumption per capita. The potential change of climate threatens to become an important source of international tensions in the near future and to provoke the scarcity of vital resources in particular regions. If the world is to engage in a true process of sustainable development, radical changes in the present strategies and patterns of resources use are needed. This working group focused on the problems and potential solutions related to renewable energy sources. The topic of water and security were discussed as well as multilateral agreements and negotiations regarding global climate change
Public Perception of Climate Risk: The Case of Greece
Voskaki, Asimina; Tsermenidis, Konstantinos
2015-04-01
Climate change is generally considered as one of the greatest challenges our world is facing. In the case of Greece climatic change seems to be associated with sea level rise, increase in temperature, variation in precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. As a result of climate pattern changes a series of consequences are expected in areas involving build environment, infrastructures, health and various sectors of the economy. Even though climate change is probably going to affect Greece in terms of human welfare and economic growth, public perception and attitude do not always identify it as the most important, amongst others, environmental area of concern, or compared to various socio-economic issues. Considering that topics related to climate change involve a certain degree of uncertainty public perception seems to be important when dealing with adaptation strategies to manage or prevent risks from climate change impact and therefore people's reaction to risks seem to be an issue of great importance in future policy planning and implementation. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this research investigates people's understanding, specific knowledge, opinion, awareness, emotions, behavior with regards to climate change risks and their willingness to pay in order to minimize or prevent risk. In addition, it examines people's willingness to alter current lifestyle and adapt to a changing climate. The information derived from survey data concern the topics and the perceived importance of the causes of the climate change between certain groups of people; the analysis of the data is focused on the correlation between perceived risk and knowledge about the issues involved. Rather than applying a specific technique extensively, we choose to deploy a number of methodologies with which we are able to draw different aspects from the data. To this
Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply ... In a context of positive economic growth, demand for water is expected to ... Socially equitable climate action is essential to strengthen the resilience of all ...
Climate constraints on the carbon intensity of economic growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rozenberg, Julie; Narloch, Ulf; Hallegatte, Stephane; Davis, Steven J
2015-01-01
Development and climate goals together constrain the carbon intensity of production. Using a simple and transparent model that represents committed CO 2 emissions (future emissions expected to come from existing capital), we explore the carbon intensity of production related to new capital required for different temperature targets across several thousand scenarios. Future pathways consistent with the 2 °C target which allow for continued gross domestic product growth require early action to reduce carbon intensity of new production, and either (i) a short lifetime of energy and industry capital (e.g. early retrofit of coal power plants), or (ii) large negative emissions after 2050 (i.e. rapid development and dissemination of carbon capture and sequestration). To achieve the 2 °C target, half of the scenarios indicate a carbon intensity of new production between 33 and 73 g CO 2 /$—much lower than the global average today, at 360 g CO 2 /$. The average lifespan of energy capital (especially power plants), and industry capital, are critical because they commit emissions far into the future and reduce the budget for new capital emissions. Each year of lifetime added to existing, carbon intensive capital, decreases the carbon intensity of new production required to meet a 2 °C carbon budget by 1.0–1.5 g CO 2 /$, and each year of delaying the start of mitigation decreases the required CO 2 intensity of new production by 20–50 g CO 2 /$. Constraints on the carbon intensity of new production under a 3 °C target are considerably relaxed relative to the 2 °C target, but remain daunting in comparison to the carbon intensity of the global economy today. (letter)
Biotic interactions overrule plant responses to climate, depending on the species' biogeography.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Astrid Welk
Full Text Available This study presents an experimental approach to assess the relative importance of climatic and biotic factors as determinants of species' geographical distributions. We asked to what extent responses of grassland plant species to biotic interactions vary with climate, and to what degree this variation depends on the species' biogeography. Using a gradient from oceanic to continental climate represented by nine common garden transplant sites in Germany, we experimentally tested whether congeneric grassland species of different geographic distribution (oceanic vs. continental plant range type responded differently to combinations of climate, competition and mollusc herbivory. We found the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate to vary between the different components of plant performance. While survival and plant height increased with precipitation, temperature had no effect on plant performance. Additionally, species with continental plant range type increased their growth in more benign climatic conditions, while those with oceanic range type were largely unable to take a similar advantage of better climatic conditions. Competition generally caused strong reductions of aboveground biomass and growth. In contrast, herbivory had minor effects on survival and growth. Against expectation, these negative effects of competition and herbivory were not mitigated under more stressful continental climate conditions. In conclusion we suggest variation in relative importance of climate and biotic interactions on broader scales, mediated via species-specific sensitivities and factor-specific response patterns. Our results have important implications for species distribution models, as they emphasize the large-scale impact of biotic interactions on plant distribution patterns and the necessity to take plant range types into account.