WorldWideScience

Sample records for groundwater level forecasting

  1. Data-Driven Techniques for Regional Groundwater Level Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Tsai, F. H.; Shen, H. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Data-Driven Techniques for Regional Groundwater Level Forecasts Fi-John Changa, Li-Chiu Changb, Fong He Tsaia, Hung-Yu Shenba Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC. b Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 25137, Taiwan, ROC..Correspondence to: Fi-John Chang (email: changfj@ntu.edu.tw)The alluvial fan of the Zhuoshui River in Taiwan is a good natural recharge area of groundwater. However, the over extraction of groundwater occurs in the coastland results in serious land subsidence. Groundwater systems are heterogeneous with diverse temporal-spatial patterns, and it is very difficult to quantify their complex processes. Data-driven methods can effectively capture the spatial-temporal characteristics of input-output patterns at different scales for accurately imitating dynamic complex systems with less computational requirements. In this study, we implement various data-driven methods to suitably predict the regional groundwater level variations for making countermeasures in response to the land subsidence issue in the study area. We first establish the relationship between regional rainfall, streamflow as well as groundwater levels and then construct intelligent groundwater level prediction models for the basin based on the long-term (2000-2013) regional monthly data sets collected from the Zhuoshui River basin. We analyze the interaction between hydrological factors and groundwater level variations; apply the self-organizing map (SOM) to obtain the clustering results of the spatial-temporal groundwater level variations; and then apply the recurrent configuration of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (R-NARX) to predicting the monthly groundwater levels. As a consequence, a regional intelligent groundwater level prediction model can be constructed based on the adaptive results of the SOM. Results demonstrate that the development

  2. Groundwater Level Fluctuation Forecasting in Birjand Aquifer Using Artificial Neural Network

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    Mirarabi, A.; Nakhaei, M.

    2009-04-01

    Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are being used increasingly to predict and forecast water resources variables such as groundwater levels. In this paper using artificial neural network three objective including determination of the influential parameters which impact fluctuation of groundwater level in birjand aquifer, investigation of the effect of temporal and spatial information by considering time series (9 years) and simulation of the fluctuation groundwater level in three selected piezometers are recognized. The reasonably good prediction of piezometric level simulated based on ANN using FNN_LM by selection of effective parameters and optimal time lag

  3. Wavelet coupled MARS and M5 Model Tree approaches for groundwater level forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaie-balf, Mohammad; Naganna, Sujay Raghavendra; Ghaemi, Alireza; Deka, Paresh Chandra

    2017-10-01

    In this study, two different machine learning models, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and M5 Model Trees (MT) have been applied to simulate the groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations of three shallow open wells within diverse unconfined aquifers. The Wavelet coupled MARS and MT hybrid models were developed in an attempt to further increase the GWL forecast accuracy. The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) which is particularly effective in dealing with non-stationary time-series data was employed to decompose the input time series into various sub-series components. Historical data of 10 years (August-1996 to July-2006) comprising monthly groundwater level, rainfall, and temperature were used to calibrate and validate the models. The models were calibrated and tested for one, three and six months ahead forecast horizons. The wavelet coupled MARS and MT models were compared with their simple counterpart using standard statistical performance evaluation measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NNSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) . The wavelet coupled MARS and MT models developed using multi-scale input data performed better compared to their simple counterpart and the forecast accuracy of W-MARS models were superior to that of W-MT models. Specifically, the DWT offered a better discrimination of non-linear and non-stationary trends that were present at various scales in the time series of the input variables thus crafting the W-MARS models to provide more accurate GWL forecasts.

  4. Forecasting monthly groundwater level fluctuations in coastal aquifers using hybrid Wavelet packet–Support vector regression

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    N. Sujay Raghavendra

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This research demonstrates the state-of-the-art capability of Wavelet packet analysis in improving the forecasting efficiency of Support vector regression (SVR through the development of a novel hybrid Wavelet packet–Support vector regression (WP–SVR model for forecasting monthly groundwater level fluctuations observed in three shallow unconfined coastal aquifers. The Sequential Minimal Optimization Algorithm-based SVR model is also employed for comparative study with WP–SVR model. The input variables used for modeling were monthly time series of total rainfall, average temperature, mean tide level, and past groundwater level observations recorded during the period 1996–2006 at three observation wells located near Mangalore, India. The Radial Basis function is employed as a kernel function during SVR modeling. Model parameters are calibrated using the first seven years of data, and the remaining three years data are used for model validation using various input combinations. The performance of both the SVR and WP–SVR models is assessed using different statistical indices. From the comparative result analysis of the developed models, it can be seen that WP–SVR model outperforms the classic SVR model in predicting groundwater levels at all the three well locations (e.g. NRMSE(WP–SVR = 7.14, NRMSE(SVR = 12.27; NSE(WP–SVR = 0.91, NSE(SVR = 0.8 during the test phase with respect to well location at Surathkal. Therefore, using the WP–SVR model is highly acceptable for modeling and forecasting of groundwater level fluctuations.

  5. Application of artificial neural network model for groundwater level forecasting in a river island with artificial influencing factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghoon; Yoon, Heesung; Park, Byeong-Hak; Lee, Kang-Kun

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater use has been increased for various purposes like agriculture, industry or drinking water in recent years, the issue related to sustainability on the groundwater use also has been raised. Accordingly, forecasting the groundwater level is of great importance for planning sustainable use of groundwater. In a small island surrounded by the Han River, South Korea, seasonal fluctuation of the groundwater level is characterized by multiple factors such as recharge/discharge event of the Paldang dam, Water Curtain Cultivation (WCC) during the winter season, operation of Groundwater Heat Pump System (GWHP). For a period when the dam operation is only occurred in the study area, a prediction of the groundwater level can be easily achieved by a simple cross-correlation model. However, for a period when the WCC and the GWHP systems are working together, the groundwater level prediction is challenging due to its unpredictable operation of the two systems. This study performed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to forecast the groundwater level in the river area reflecting the various predictable/unpredictable factors. For constructing the ANN models, two monitoring wells, YSN1 and YSO8, which are located near the injection and abstraction wells for the GWHP system were selected, respectively. By training with the groundwater level data measured in January 2015 to August 2015, response of groundwater level by each of the surface water level, the WCC and the GWHP system were evaluated. Consequentially, groundwater levels in December 2015 to March 2016 were predicted by ANN models, providing optimal fits in comparison to the observed water levels. This study suggests that the ANN model is a useful tool to forecast the groundwater level in terms of the management of groundwater. Acknowledgement : Financial support was provided by the "R&D Project on Environmental Management of Geologic CO2 Storage" from the KEITI (Project Number: 2014001810003) This research was

  6. Forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining below specified low thresholds in the conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dickinson, Jesse

    2017-01-01

    We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater-level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness-of-fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month-to-month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low-threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic-forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.

  7. Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

    2013-01-01

    Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

  8. Groundwater level forecasting using an artificial neural network trained with particle swarm optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapoglou, E.; Trichakis, I. C.; Dokou, Z.; Karatzas, G. P.

    2012-04-01

    period is minimal. Finally, climate change scenarios were examined, based on the prediction that on the island of Crete during the period of 2010-2040, it will be a 12(±25)% average reduction in precipitation and a 1.9(±0.9)oC increase in mean temperature (Tsanis et al., 2011). In order to study these scenarios, data time series were created for the period 2010-2020, using a stochastic weather generator for three cases (best, worst and average case scenarios). The prediction results indicate a significant negative effect on the groundwater level only for the worst case scenario (37% reduction in precipitation), while in the other cases the results vary from neutral to positive.

  9. Forecast level in the groundwater regime in the territory adjacent to the pond - storage devices waste mine water "SVIDOVOK"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevhrashkina H.P.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The hydrodynamic scheme layer-bond is proposed for long – term level regime forecast. Which takes into account the rising ground waters under the influence by hydrodynamic schemes: of the pond and of the river Samara. The process is described with Fourier’s equation. The method of double superposition is used in the calculations, which the most accurately accounts for the effect of boundary condition

  10. Joint Assimilation of InSAR and Water-level Data for Aquifer Parameter Estimation and Groundwater State Forecasting in Santa Clara Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullin, Ayrat; Jonsson, Sigurjon

    2017-04-01

    Ground subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawal is a widespread problem and can cause damage to buildings and infrastructure. The challenge is to forecast, accurately and in a cost effective way, when water extraction may threaten infrastructure, so that procedures can be applied to avoid unacceptable levels of ground deformation beyond construction engineering criteria. However, many characteristics of the heterogeneity of aquifer parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients, are usually uncertain. Monitoring data, such as water-level data in monitoring wells, can be used to reduce these uncertainties, but the difficulty is that they usually only provide spatially limited information about the groundwater system. To take on these problems, we use an ensemble-based assimilation framework that efficiently integrates InSAR-derived displacements and hydraulic head data for improved understanding of groundwater reservoir behavior. We apply this framework for aquifer parameter estimation of the basin-wide Santa Clara Valley groundwater system in northern California. To study the deformation patterns in the area, we use time-series analysis of InSAR data, based on more than 150 images from the ERS, Envisat and ALOS satellites from 1992-2012. Using the InSAR observations, in addition to approximate data on pumping, managed recharge and rainfall amounts, we are able to advance our understanding of the ongoing hydrogeological processes within the aquifer system. We find that including both InSAR and well water-level data as observations improves the properties estimation compared to basic statistical interpolation between the available well data. We also compare the performance of our hydraulic head predictions with previous groundwater studies in Santa Clara Valley, such as those of Chaussard et al. (2014). The results suggest that the high spatial resolution subsidence observations from InSAR are useful for accurately quantifying hydraulic

  11. Predictive models applied to groundwater level forecasting: a preliminary experience on the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brozzo, Gianpiero; Doveri, Marco; Lelli, Matteo; Scozzari, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    Computer-based decision support systems are getting a growing interest for water managing authorities and water distribution companies. This work discusses a preliminary experience in the application of computational intelligence in a hydrological modeling framework, regarding the study area of the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy). Two sites in the studied area, corresponding to two distinct groups of wells (Battifollo and Fornola) are managed by the local drinkable water distribution company (ACAM Acque), which serves the area of La Spezia, on the Ligurian coast. Battifollo has 9 wells with a total extraction rate of about 240 liters per second, while Fornola has 44 wells with an extraction rate of about 900 liters per second. Objective of this work is to make use of time series coming from long-term monitoring activities in order to assess the trend of the groundwater level with respect to a set of environmental and exploitation parameters; this is accomplished by the experimentation of a suitable model, eligible to be used as a predictor. This activity moves on from the modeling of the system behavior, based on a set of Input/Output data, in order to characterize it without necessarily a prior knowledge of any deterministic mechanism (system identification). In this context, data series collected by continuous hydrological monitoring instrumentation installed in the studied sites, together with meteorological and water extraction data, have been analyzed in order to assess the applicability and performance of a predictive model of the groundwater level. A mixed approach (both data driven and process-based) has been experimented on the whole dataset relating to the last ten years of continuous monitoring activity. The system identification approach presented here is based on the integration of an adaptive technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a blind deterministic identification approach. According to this concept, the behavior of

  12. Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

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    Almanaseer, Naser; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Bales, Jerad

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using

  13. Groundwater Level Prediction using M5 Model Trees

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    Nalarajan, Nitha Ayinippully; Mohandas, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater is an important resource, readily available and having high economic value and social benefit. Recently, it had been considered a dependable source of uncontaminated water. During the past two decades, increased rate of extraction and other greedy human actions have resulted in the groundwater crisis, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Under prevailing circumstances, the availability of predicted groundwater levels increase the importance of this valuable resource, as an aid in the planning of groundwater resources. For this purpose, data-driven prediction models are widely used in the present day world. M5 model tree (MT) is a popular soft computing method emerging as a promising method for numeric prediction, producing understandable models. The present study discusses the groundwater level predictions using MT employing only the historical groundwater levels from a groundwater monitoring well. The results showed that MT can be successively used for forecasting groundwater levels.

  14. Long-term forecast: key to groundwater protection.

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    Gerth, Joachim; Förstner, Ulrich

    2004-01-01

    Groundwater resources are at risk from pollution, climate change and land-management practices. Long-term forecast is a tool to demonstrate future development and to support decisions on measures which can be implemented, controlled and eventually corrected. As the basis for preventive action, a forecast can be viewed as a key to groundwater protection. The soil zone plays a vital role in groundwater protection. Research on soil and groundwater trends, as affected by change of climate and/or land-management practices, is on the agenda. Integrated research is necessary to develop numerical soil-water system models reflecting all relevant transport processes at various scales. Even relatively simple problems like forecasting pollutant release from contaminated materials are difficult to resolve. Batch tests may be sufficient in low-risk cases. At higher risk when contaminated substrates are chosen for deposition on a large scale, a thorough characterization of the materials is necessary covering all aspects of stability and possible changes of the environment.

  15. Forecasting and Managing Groundwater Resources Using InSAR

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    Zebker, H. A.; Knight, R. J.; Chen, J.

    2014-12-01

    estimate conductivity in the reservoir. This is important in order the supplement the usually sparse geologic knowledge describing the shape of the various layers in the aquifer system and their compressibility. These tools point toward an approach for forecasting future head levels.

  16. Application of vector autoregressive model for rainfall and groundwater level analysis

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    Keng, Chai Yoke; Shan, Fam Pei; Shimizu, Kunio; Imoto, Tomoaki; Lateh, Habibah; Peng, Koay Swee

    2017-08-01

    Groundwater is a crucial water supply for industrial, agricultural and residential use, hence it is important to understand groundwater system. Groundwater is a dynamic natural resource and can be recharged. The amount of recharge depends on the rate and duration of rainfall, as rainfall comprises an important component of the water cycle and is the prime source of groundwater recharge. This study applies Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in the analysis of rainfall and groundwater level. The study area that is focused in the study is along the East-West Highway, Gerik-Jeli, Malaysia. The VAR model with optimum lag length 8, VAR(8) is selected to model the rainfall and groundwater level in the study area. Result of Granger causality test shows significant influence of rainfall to groundwater level. Impulse Response Function reveals that changes in rainfall significantly affect changes in groundwater level after some time lags. Moreover, Variance Decomposition reported that rainfall contributed to the forecast of the groundwater level. The VAR(8) model is validated by comparing the actual value with the in-sample forecasted value and the result is satisfied with all forecasted groundwater level values lies inside the confidence interval which indicate that the model is reliable. Furthermore, the closeness of both actual and forecasted groundwater level time series plots implies the high degree of accurateness of the estimated model.

  17. Seasonal UK hydrological forecasts using rainfall forecasts - what level of skill?

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    Bell, Victoria; Davies, Helen; Kay, Alison; Scaife, Adam

    2017-04-01

    Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and Northern Europe, including the UK have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. The Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK: www.hydoutuk.net) is the first operational hydrological forecast system for the UK that delivers monthly outlooks of the water situation for both river flow and groundwater levels. The output from the HOUK are publicly available and used each month by government agencies, practitioners and academics alongside other sources of information such as flood warnings and meteorological forecasts. The HOUK brings together information on current and forecast weather conditions, and river flows, and uses several modelling approaches to explore possible future hydrological conditions. One of the techniques combines ensembles of monthly-resolution seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of river flows up to a few months ahead. The approach combines a high resolution, spatially distributed hydrological initial condition (HIC) provided by a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) driven by weather observations up to the forecast time origin. Considerable efforts have been made to accommodate the temporal and spatial resolution of the GloSea5 rainfall forecasts (monthly time-step and national-scale) in a spatially distributed forecasting system, leading to the development of a monthly resolution water balance model (WBM) to forecast regional mean river flows for the next 1 and 3 months ahead. The work presented here provides the first assessment of the skill in the HOUK national-scale flow forecasts using an ensemble of rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009). The skill in the combined modelling system has been assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using

  18. Assessing the suitability of extreme learning machines (ELM for groundwater level prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Basant

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Fluctuation of groundwater levels around the world is an important theme in hydrological research. Rising water demand, faulty irrigation practices, mismanagement of soil and uncontrolled exploitation of aquifers are some of the reasons why groundwater levels are fluctuating. In order to effectively manage groundwater resources, it is important to have accurate readings and forecasts of groundwater levels. Due to the uncertain and complex nature of groundwater systems, the development of soft computing techniques (data-driven models in the field of hydrology has significant potential. This study employs two soft computing techniques, namely, extreme learning machine (ELM and support vector machine (SVM to forecast groundwater levels at two observation wells located in Canada. A monthly data set of eight years from 2006 to 2014 consisting of both hydrological and meteorological parameters (rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration and groundwater level was used for the comparative study of the models. These variables were used in various combinations for univariate and multivariate analysis of the models. The study demonstrates that the proposed ELM model has better forecasting ability compared to the SVM model for monthly groundwater level forecasting.

  19. Groundwater Level Predictions Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛晓敏; 尚松浩; 刘翔

    2002-01-01

    The prediction of groundwater level is important for the use and management of groundwater resources. In this paper, the artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to predict groundwater level in the Dawu Aquifer of Zibo in Eastern China. The first step was an auto-correlation analysis of the groundwater level which showed that the monthly groundwater level was time dependent. An auto-regression type ANN (ARANN) model and a regression-auto-regression type ANN (RARANN) model using back-propagation algorithm were then used to predict the groundwater level. Monthly data from June 1988 to May 1998 was used for the network training and testing. The results show that the RARANN model is more reliable than the ARANN model, especially in the testing period, which indicates that the RARANN model can describe the relationship between the groundwater fluctuation and main factors that currently influence the groundwater level. The results suggest that the model is suitable for predicting groundwater level fluctuations in this area for similar conditions in the future.

  20. Combining SKU-level sales forecasts from models and experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Legerstee (Rianne)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe study the performance of SKU-level sales forecasts which linearly combine statistical model forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a large and unique database containing model forecasts for monthly sales of various pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by about fifty experts, we

  1. Applying GM(1,1) to Forecasting the Dynamic Variation of Groundwater in Chuang Ye Farm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The area of well rice in the sanjiang Plain is incresing recently.At the same time,the groundwater resource has been wasted.Thus,the resource of groundwater is shortening.More and more area appears the phenomenon of "hanger pump" and "funnel".According to these problems the paper adopts Chuang Ye farm as the research base,through handle the data of groundwater,applying GM(1,1) to forecasting the dynamic variation of groundwater.The writer hopes to provide some references about using groundwater resource of the area in the future for readers.

  2. Technical note: Application of artificial neural networks in groundwater table forecasting - a case study in a Singapore swamp forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yabin; Wendi, Dadiyorto; Eon Kim, Dong; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2016-04-01

    Accurate prediction of groundwater table is important for the efficient management of groundwater resources. Despite being the most widely used tools for depicting the hydrological regime, numerical models suffer from formidable constraints, such as extensive data demanding, high computational cost, and inevitable parameter uncertainty. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), in contrast, can make predictions on the basis of more easily accessible variables, rather than requiring explicit characterization of the physical systems and prior knowledge of the physical parameters. This study applies ANN to predict the groundwater table in a freshwater swamp forest of Singapore. The inputs to the network are solely the surrounding reservoir levels and rainfall. The results reveal that ANN is able to produce an accurate forecast with a leading time of 1 day, whereas the performance decreases when leading time increases to 3 and 7 days.

  3. Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

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    Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in

  4. Assessing and forecasting groundwater development costs in Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-07-10

    Jul 10, 2013 ... costs of groundwater development in 11 Sub-Saharan African countries, while the cost factors that most .... and pricing values per drilling but without success. ... per metre of well development based on the deviation from the.

  5. Forecasting Water Levels Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shreenivas N. Londhe

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available For all Ocean related activities it is necessary to predict the actual water levels as accurate as possible. The present work aims at predicting the water levels with a lead time of few hours to a day using the technique of artificial neural networks. Instead of using the previous and current values of observed water level time series directly as input and output the water level anomaly (difference between the observed water level and harmonically predicted tidal level is calculated for each hour and the ANN model is developed using this time series. The network predicted anomaly is then added to harmonic tidal level to predict the water levels. The exercise is carried out at six locations, two in The Gulf of Mexico, two in The Gulf of Maine and two in The Gulf of Alaska along the USA coastline. The ANN models performed reasonably well for all forecasting intervals at all the locations. The ANN models were also run in real time mode for a period of eight months. Considering the hurricane season in Gulf of Mexico the models were also tested particularly during hurricanes.

  6. Groundwater Level Status Report for 2005 Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.P. Allen; R.J. Koch

    2006-05-15

    The status of groundwater level monitoring at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in 2005 is provided in this report. The Groundwater Level Monitoring Project was instituted in 2005 to provide a framework for the collection and processing of quality controlled groundwater level data. This report summarizes groundwater level data for 137 monitoring wells, including 41 regional aquifer wells, 22 intermediate wells, and 74 alluvial wells. Pressure transducers were installed in 118 monitoring wells for continuous monitoring of groundwater levels. Time-series hydrographs of groundwater level data are presented along with pertinent construction and location information for each well.

  7. Application of RBFN network and GM (1, 1) for groundwater level simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zijun; Yang, Qingchun; Wang, Luchen; Martín, Jordi Delgado

    2016-10-01

    Groundwater is a prominent resource of drinking and domestic water in the world. In this context, a feasible water resources management plan necessitates acceptable predictions of groundwater table depth fluctuations, which can help ensure the sustainable use of a watershed's aquifers for urban and rural water supply. Due to the difficulties of identifying non-linear model structure and estimating the associated parameters, in this study radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and GM (1, 1) models are used for the prediction of monthly groundwater level fluctuations in the city of Longyan, Fujian Province (South China). The monthly groundwater level data monitored from January 2003 to December 2011 are used in both models. The error criteria are estimated using the coefficient of determination (R 2), mean absolute error (E) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The results show that both the models can forecast the groundwater level with fairly high accuracy, but the RBFN network model can be a promising tool to simulate and forecast groundwater level since it has a relatively smaller RMSE and MAE.

  8. Forecasting the Depletion of Transboundary Groundwater Resources in Hyper-Arid Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoni, A.; Heggy, E.

    2014-12-01

    growth will be at unprecedented levels for these areas causing the water demand of these nations to grow largely. Our preliminary simulation results suggest that fossil aquifers cannot be used as a long-term solution for water shortage in hyper-arid environments. Aquifers in the Arabian Peninsula are forecasted to be depleted within decades.

  9. Groundwater levels for selected wells in Upper Kittitas County, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasser, E.T.; Julich, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Groundwater levels for selected wells in Upper Kittitas County, Washington, are presented on an interactive, web-based map to document the spatial distribution of groundwater levels in the study area measured during spring 2011. Groundwater-level data and well information were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey using standard techniques and are stored in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System, Groundwater Site-Inventory database.

  10. Forecasting ozone daily maximum levels at Santiago, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorquera, Héctor; Pérez, Ricardo; Cipriano, Aldo; Espejo, Andrés; Victoria Letelier, M.; Acuña, Gonzalo

    In major urban areas, air pollution impact on health is serious enough to include it in the group of meteorological variables that are forecast daily. This work focusses on the comparison of different forecasting systems for daily maximum ozone levels at Santiago, Chile. The modelling tools used for these systems were linear time series, artificial neural networks and fuzzy models. The structure of the forecasting model was derived from basic principles and it includes a combination of persistence and daily maximum air temperature as input variables. Assessment of the models is based on two indices: their ability to forecast well an episode, and their tendency to forecast an episode that did not occur at the end (a false positive). All the models tried in this work showed good forecasting performance, with 70-95% of successful forecasts at two monitor sites: Downtown (moderate impacts) and Eastern (downwind, highest impacts). The number of false positives was not negligible, but this may be improved by expressing the forecast in broad classes: low, average, high, very high impacts; the fuzzy model was the most reliable forecast, with the lowest number of false positives among the different models evaluated. The quality of the results and the dynamics of ozone formation suggest the use of a forecast to warn people about excessive exposure during episodic days at Santiago.

  11. Groundwater level status report for 2010, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Richard J.; Schmeer, Sarah

    2011-03-01

    The status of groundwater level monitoring at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2010 is provided in this report. This report summarizes groundwater level data for 194 monitoring wells, including 63 regional aquifer wells (including 10 regional/intermediate wells), 34 intermediate wells, 97 alluvial wells, and 12 water supply wells. Pressure transducers were installed in 162 monitoring wells for continuous monitoring of groundwater levels. Time-series hydrographs of groundwater level data are presented along with pertinent construction and location information for each well. The report also summarizes the groundwater temperatures recorded in intermediate and regional aquifer monitoring wells and seasonal responses to snowmelt runoff observed in intermediate wells.

  12. Groundwater level status report for 2008, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Richard J.; Schmeer, Sarah

    2009-03-01

    The status of groundwater level monitoring at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2008 is provided in this report. This report summarizes groundwater level data for 179 monitoring wells, including 45 regional aquifer wells, 28 intermediate wells, 8 regional/intermediate wells, 106 alluvial wells, and 12 water supply wells. Pressure transducers were installed in 166 monitoring wells for continuous monitoring of groundwater levels. Time-series hydrographs of groundwater level data are presented along with pertinent construction and location information for each well. The report also summarizes the groundwater temperatures recorded in intermediate and regional aquifer monitoring wells.

  13. Groundwater level status report for 2009, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Richard J.; Schmeer, Sarah

    2010-03-01

    The status of groundwater level monitoring at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2009 is provided in this report. This report summarizes groundwater level data for 179 monitoring wells, including 55 regional aquifer wells (including 11 regional/intermediate wells), 26 intermediate wells, 98 alluvial wells, and 12 water supply wells. Pressure transducers were installed in 161 monitoring wells for continuous monitoring of groundwater levels. Time-series hydrographs of groundwater level data are presented along with pertinent construction and location information for each well. The report also summarizes the groundwater temperatures recorded in intermediate and regional aquifer monitoring wells.

  14. Radar Based Flow and Water Level Forecasting in Sewer Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Grum, M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the first radar based forecast of flow and/or water level in sewer systems in Denmark. The rainfall is successfully forecasted with a lead time of 1-2 hours, and flow/levels are forecasted an additional ½-1½ hours using models describing the behaviour of the sewer system. Both...... radar data and flow/water level model are continuously updated using online rain gauges and online in-sewer measurements, in order to make the best possible predictions. The project show very promising results, and show large potentials, exploiting the existing water infrastructure in future climate...

  15. Predicting of Groundwater Level Fluctuation Using ANN and ANFIS in Lailakh plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semko Rashidi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of groundwater level and its fluctuations is one of the essential measures(actions for integrated management planning of groundwater resources. Considering the nonlinear and complex relations that govern groundwater flow, designing a precise and simple model is considered as an inevitable necessity for simulating the groundwater resources behavior. Nowadays, the connoisseur systems such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS have regarded as the useful and reliable tools for modeling the nonlinear mappings. The purpose of this study is developing the ANN and ANFIS models, to predict water table fluctuations of groundwater resources system in Lailakh Plain. The time-values of monthly average groundwater level, rainfall, temperature and evaporation were used to develop the proposed models. And, ANN and ANFIS dynamic, static andhybrid models were developed for predicting water table depths. Finally, the proposed models were compared and prioritized by the using of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP. The resultes of the research showed that the dynamic and static models were respectively the most accurate and careless groundwater table predicting models. The ANN dynamic model with three input parameters and MSE=0.776 and R=0.975, was the best model for the more accurately predicting of water table fluctuations in Lailakh plain.

  16. Response of the microbial community to seasonal groundwater level fluctuations in petroleum hydrocarbon-contaminated groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ai-xia; Zhang, Yu-ling; Dong, Tian-zi; Lin, Xue-yu; Su, Xiao-si

    2015-07-01

    The effects of seasonal groundwater level fluctuations on the contamination characteristics of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in soils, groundwater, and the microbial community were investigated at a typical petrochemical site in northern China. The measurements of groundwater and soil at different depths showed that significant TPH residue was present in the soil in this study area, especially in the vicinity of the pollution source, where TPH concentrations were up to 2600 mg kg(-1). The TPH concentration in the groundwater fluctuated seasonally, and the maximum variation was 0.8 mg L(-1). The highest TPH concentrations were detected in the silty clay layer and lied in the groundwater level fluctuation zones. The groundwater could reach previously contaminated areas in the soil, leading to higher groundwater TPH concentrations as TPH leaches into the groundwater. The coincident variation of the electron acceptors and TPH concentration with groundwater-table fluctuations affected the microbial communities in groundwater. The microbial community structure was significantly different between the wet and dry seasons. The canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) results showed that in the wet season, TPH, NO3(-), Fe(2+), TMn, S(2-), and HCO3(-) were the major factors correlating the microbial community. A significant increase in abundance of operational taxonomic unit J1 (97% similar to Dechloromonas aromatica sp.) was also observed in wet season conditions, indicating an intense denitrifying activity in the wet season environment. In the dry season, due to weak groundwater level fluctuations and low temperature of groundwater, the microbial activity was weak. But iron and sulfate-reducing were also detected in dry season at this site. As a whole, groundwater-table fluctuations would affect the distribution, transport, and biodegradation of the contaminants. These results may be valuable for the control and remediation of soil and groundwater pollution at this site

  17. Examining the Relationship between Drought Indices and Groundwater Levels

    OpenAIRE

    Navaratnam Leelaruban; Padmanabhan, G.; Peter Oduor

    2017-01-01

    Thorough characterization of the response of finite water resources to climatic factors is essential for water monitoring and management. In this study, groundwater level data from U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Climate Response Network wells were used to analyze the relationship between selected drought indices and groundwater level fluctuation. The drought episodes included in this study were selected using climate division level drought indices. Indices included the Palmer Drought Sev...

  18. Sensitivity of GRACE-derived estimates of groundwater-level changes in southern Ontario, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachborn, Ellen; Berg, Aaron; Levison, Jana; Ambadan, Jaison Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Amidst changing climates, understanding the world's water resources is of increasing importance. In Ontario, Canada, low water conditions are currently assessed using only precipitation and watershed-based stream gauges by the Conservation Authorities in Ontario and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Regional groundwater-storage changes in Ontario are not currently measured using satellite data by research institutes. In this study, contributions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are compared to a hydrogeological database covering southern Ontario from 2003 to 2013, to determine the suitability of GRACE total water storage estimates for monitoring groundwater storage in this location. Terrestrial water storage data from GRACE were used to determine monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly values. GWS values were also determined by multiplying groundwater-level elevations (from the Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network wells) by specific yield. Comparisons of GRACE-derived GWS to well-based GWS data determined that GRACE is sufficiently sensitive to obtain a meaningful signal in southern Ontario. Results show that GWS values produced by GRACE are useful for identifying regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with limited available hydrogeological characterization data. Results also indicate that GRACE may have an ability to forecast changes in groundwater storage, which will become useful when monitoring climate shifts in the near future.

  19. Long-range dependence and sea level forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Ercan, Ali; Abbasov, Rovshan K

    2013-01-01

    This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA

  20. A high resolution water level forecast for the German Bight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niehüser, Sebastian; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Many coastal regions worldwide are potentially endangered by storm surges which can cause disastrous damages and loss of life. Due to climate change induced sea level rise, an accumulation of such events is expected by the end of the 21th century. Therefore, advanced storm surge warnings are needed to be prepared when another storm surge hits the coast. In the shallow southeastern North Sea these storm surge warnings are nowadays routinely provided for selected tide gauge locations along a coastline through state-of-the-art forecast systems, which are based on a coupled system of empirical tidal predictions and numerical storm surge forecasts. Along the German North Sea coastline, the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency in cooperation with the German Weather Service is responsible for the storm surge warnings. They provide accurate, high frequency and real-time water level forecasts for up to six days ahead at selected tide gauge sites via internet, telephone and broadcast. Since water levels along the German North Sea coastline are dominated by shallow water effects and a very complex bathymetric structure of the seabed, the pointwise forecast is not necessarily transferable to un-gauged areas between the tide gauges. Here we aim to close this existing gap and develop water level forecasts with a high spatial (continuously with a resolution of at least 1 kilometer) as well as a high temporal (at least 15-minute values) resolution along the entire German North Sea coastline. We introduce a new methodology for water level forecasts which combines empirical or statistical and numerical models. While the tidal forecast is performed by non-parametric interpolation techniques between un-gauged and gauged sites, storm surges are estimated on the basis of statistical/empirical storm surge formulas taken from a numerical model hindcast. The procedure will be implemented in the operational mode forced with numerical weather forecasts.

  1. Streamflow forecasting and data assimilation: bias in precipitation, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreight, J. L.; Gochis, D. J.; Hoar, T.; Dugger, A. L.; Yu, W.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainty in precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and model groundwater fluxes are first-order sources of error in streamflow forecasting. While near-surface estimates of soil moisture are now available from satellite, very few soil moisture observations below 5 cm depth or groundwater discharge estimates are available for operational forecasting. Radar precipitation estimates are subject to large biases, particularly during extreme events (e.g. Steiner et al., 2010) and their correction is not typically available in real-time. Streamflow data, however, are readily available in near-real-time and can be assimilated operationally to help constrain uncertainty in these uncertain states and improve streamflow forecasts. We examine the ability of streamflow observations to diagnose bias in the three most uncertain variables: precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes. We investigate strategies for their subsequent bias correction. These include spinup and calibration strategies with and without the use of data assimilation and the determination of the proper spinup timescales. Global and spatially distributed multipliers on the uncertain states included in the assimilation state vector (e.g. Seo et al., 2003) will also be evaluated. We examine real cases and observing system simulation experiments for both normal and extreme rainfall events. One of our test cases considers the Colorado Front Range flood of September 2013 where the range of disagreement amongst five precipitation estimates spanned a factor of five with only one exhibiting appreciable positive bias (Gochis et al, submitted). Our experiments are conducted using the WRF-Hydro model with the NoahMP land surface component and the data assimilation research testbed (DART). A variety of ensemble data assimilation approaches (filters) are considered. ReferencesGochis, DJ, et al. "The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013" BAMS (Submitted 4-7-14). Seo, DJ, V Koren, and N

  2. Examining the Relationship between Drought Indices and Groundwater Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navaratnam Leelaruban

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Thorough characterization of the response of finite water resources to climatic factors is essential for water monitoring and management. In this study, groundwater level data from U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Climate Response Network wells were used to analyze the relationship between selected drought indices and groundwater level fluctuation. The drought episodes included in this study were selected using climate division level drought indices. Indices included the Palmer Drought Severity Index, Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-6, 9, 12, 24. Precipitation and the average temperature were also used. SPI-24 was found to correlate best with groundwater levels during drought. For 17 out of 32 wells, SPI-24 showed the best correlation amongst all of the indices. For 12 out of 32 wells, SPI-24 showed correlation coefficients of −0.6 or stronger; and for other wells, reasonably good correlation was demonstrated. The statistical significance of SPI-24 in predicting groundwater level was also tested. The correlation of average monthly groundwater levels with SPI-24 does not change much throughout the timeframe, for all of the studied wells. The duration of drought also had a significant correlation with the decline of groundwater levels. This study illustrates how drought indices can be used for a rapid assessment of drought impact on groundwater level.

  3. Medium Range Ensembles Flood Forecasts for Community Level Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S.; Kawasaki, A.; Babel, M. S.; AIT

    2013-05-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, there has been a major advancement in medium range and seasonal forecasting. These could provide a great opportunity to improve early warning systems and advisories for early action for strategic and long term planning. This could result in increasing emphasis on proactive rather than reactive management of adverse consequences of flood events. This can be also very helpful for the agricultural sector by providing a diversity of options to farmers (e.g. changing cropping pattern, planting timing, etc.). An experimental medium range (1-10 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh which provides 51 set of discharge ensembles forecasts of one to ten days with significant persistence and high certainty. This could help communities (i.e. farmer) for gain/lost estimation as well as crop savings. This paper describe the application of ensembles probabilistic flood forecast at the community level for differential decision making focused on agriculture. The framework allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are germane to a particular situation, and obtain the management options that are possible, and the exogenous influences that should be taken into account before planning and decision making. risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted through community consultation. The forecast lead time requirement, users' needs, impact and management options for crops, livestock and fisheries sectors were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and questionnaire survey.

  4. GROUNDWATER LEVEL ANALYSES OF PUNJAB, INDIA: A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopal Krishan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is considered to be the most vital for the livestock population. In Punjab, which is also the food basket of India, the groundwater level is declining at a rapid rate due to increase in the number of tube wells in the recent years and hence the groundwater abstraction has increased. In a recent study conducted for monitoring the groundwater level in Punjab, the water level data was monitored for the period 2006-2013 in Hoshiarpur, Jalandhar & Kapurthala districts of Bist-Doab; Faridkot, Firozepur, Ludhiana, Bhatinda & Patiala districts of Malwa region and Amritsar, Gurdaspur & Tarn Taran districts of Majha region of Punjab. The groundwater level data has shown that the maximum decline to the tune of 9.75 m was found in Patiala, followed by 8.57 m in Bhatinda and least decline of 3.13 m was found in Jalandhar during the period 2006-2013. The areas showing marked decline in water levels should practice artificial recharge. It is also essential to strengthen soil, water and groundwater institutions along with capacity building, training and education in specific areas like artificial recharge, groundwater modelling, watershed management, quality monitoring, and aquifer remediation on a continuous basis. Lastly, if immediate remedial measures are not taken to reverse the declining trend of water table, it would be difficult to sustain even the existing food grain production in the state, thereby, affecting the socio-economic condition of the farmers, specially the small and marginal farmers.

  5. FORECAST ON FUTURE LEVEL OF ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    China is a country in the period of economy takeoff. We cannot use the common method to forecast its fu-ture econotmy level. This paper establishes an economic level forecast model of the countries whose economy is in the takeoff because of the stimulation of model country. The enlightenment of the model is from physics. If there are two sub-stances, A and B, and a medium between them, according to physics, when substance A is hotter than B, B' s tempera-ture will inevitably rise and close to that of A. Thus, this system tends to be a state of balance. Three factors affect heatconduction between substance A and B. They are the difference of temperature between two substances, the conductivityof medium and the characteristics of themselves. The model is testified through two examples. And then we forecast theeconomic development level of China in long term. This paper raises a model to solve the problem of research approaches.However, since there are some limitations on data source, problems will appear. For example, in certain years, our fore-cast results do not suit the real situation. But in the long term, the tendency is accurate. Then this model can be amendedin accordance with different situations.

  6. DESIGN OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL MONITORING NETWORK WITH ORDINARY KRIGING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Feng-guang; CAO Shu-you; LIU Xing-nian; YANG Ke-jun

    2008-01-01

    The primary network of groundwater level observation wells aims at realizing a regional groundwater management policy. It may give a regional picture of groundwater level with emphasis on the natural situation. Observation data from the primary network can be used to estimate the actual state of groundwater system. Since the cost of the installation and maintenance of a groundwater monitoring network is extremely high, the assessment of effectiveness of the network becomes very necessary. Groundwater level monitoring networks are the examples of discontinuous sampling on variables presenting spatial continuity and highly skewed frequency distributions. Anywhere in the aquifer, ordinary kriging provides estimates of the variable sampled and a standard error of the estimate. In this article, the average Kriging standard deviation was used as a criterion for the determination of network density,and the GIS-based approach was analysized. A case study of groundwater level network simulation in the Chaiwopu Basin, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, was presented. In the case study, the initial phreatic water observation wells were 18, a comparison of the three variogram parameters of the three defferent variogram models shows that the Gaussian model is the best. Finally, a network with 55 wells was constructed.

  7. 2012 Water Levels - Mojave River and the Morongo Groundwater Basins

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — During 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and Morongo groundwater basins....

  8. Influence of groundwater level to slope displacement by geodetic method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadarviana, Vera; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Santoso, Djoko; Kahar, Joenil; Achmad R., T.

    2016-05-01

    In the rainy season, Indonesia often experience landslide disasters. Rainwater flows on the surface of the ground and partially into the ground, and changing the groundwater level (GWL) which can cause pressure on surrounding material. Water becomes the main factor that triggered landslides because water causes pressure force on the slopes that are prone to move. With the geometric approach, slope material displacement vectors can be known, including the origin of the material pressure using dynamic mathematical model that considers GWL. The data was used 5 campaigns of GPS observations. The results are obtained the correlation coefficients between coefficient changes in groundwater levels to the vector position as a representative of correlation between the physical and geometric parameters. There is relatively strong because of the value of the average correlation coefficient is 0.91997. Further, curves between changes in groundwater levels and the displacement position shows that the greater the groundwater levels, the greater the material position shift occurs.

  9. Effects of climate change on groundwater: observed and forecasted trends on Italian systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doveri, Marco; Menichini, Matia; Provenzale, Antonello; Scozzari, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater represents the main source of water supply at global level. In Italy, as well as in most European countries, water needs are mainly covered by groundwater exploitation. The reliance on this resource is continuously growing, given the key role that groundwater plays for mitigating the climate change/variability and for addressing the significant increase in the global water demand. Despite this, and unlike surface waters, groundwater bodies have not been widely studied, and there is a general paucity of quantitative information, especially in relation to climate change. Although groundwater systems are more resilient to climate change than surface waters, they are affected both directly and indirectly. The estimation of the entity of these effects is mandatory for a reliable management of this crucial resource. The analysis of hydro-meteorological data over a few decades highlights that also the Italian territory is experiencing a change of the climate regime. Besides the increase of mean annual temperature, observed in particular since the early 1980s, longer and more frequent drought periods have been registered, as well as an increase of extreme events characterized by heavy rainfall. It is also noticeable a decrease in total rainfall, that is much more evident in the period from January to June. In addition to the reduced yearly inputs from precipitation, such trends determine also a lower snow accumulation and earlier snow melt in mountain areas, a general increase of evapotranspiration rates and an increased runoff fraction of the effective rainfall amount. As flood hydrographs of several major Italian rivers (e.g., Po, Brenta and Arno rivers) confirm, evident effects concern surface water resources. The main observed phenomena consist in the decline of mean annual discharge, the increase of extreme events with high discharge concentrated in short periods, and longer and earlier periods of low base flow. Impacts on groundwater recharge are not well

  10. Comparison of GRACE data and groundwater levels for the assessment of groundwater depletion in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liesch, Tanja; Ohmer, Marc

    2016-09-01

    Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived groundwater storage (GWS) data are compared with in-situ groundwater levels from five groundwater basins in Jordan, using newly gridded GRACE GRCTellus land data. It is shown that (1) the time series for GRACE-derived GWS data and in-situ groundwater-level measurements can be correlated, with R 2 from 0.55 to 0.74, (2) the correlation can be widely ascribed to the seasonal and trend component, since the detrended and deseasonalized time series show no significant correlation for most cases, implying that anomalous signals that deviate from the trend or seasonal behaviour are overlaid by noise, (3) estimates for water losses in Jordan based on the trend of GRACE data from 2003 to 2013 could be up to four times higher than previously assumed using estimated recharge and abstraction rates, and (4) a significant time-lagged cross correlation of the monthly changes in GRACE-derived groundwater storage and precipitation data was found, suggesting that the conventional method for deriving GWS from GRACE data probably does not account for the typical conditions in the study basins. Furthermore, a new method for deriving plausible specific yields from GRACE data and groundwater levels is demonstrated.

  11. Groundwater management based on monitoring of land subsidence and groundwater levels in the Kanto Groundwater Basin, Central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuno, K.; Kagawa, A.; Kazaoka, O.; Kusuda, T.; Nirei, H.

    2015-11-01

    Over 40 million people live on and exploit the groundwater resources of the Kanto Plain. The Plain encompasses metropolitan Tokyo and much of Chiba Prefecture. Useable groundwater extends to the base of the Kanto Plain, some 2500 to 3000 m below sea level. Much of the Kanto Plain surface is at sea level. By the early 1970s, with increasing urbanization and industrial expansion, local overdraft of groundwater resources caused major ground subsidence and damage to commercial and residential structures as well as to local and regional infrastructure. Parts of the lowlands around Tokyo subsided to 4.0 m below sea level; particularly affected were the suburbs of Funabashi and Gyotoku in western Chiba. In the southern Kanto Plain, regulations, mainly by local government and later by regional agencies, led to installation of about 500 monitoring wells and almost 5000 bench marks by the 1990's. Many of them are still working with new monitoring system. Long-term monitoring is important. The monitoring systems are costly, but the resulting data provide continuous measurement of the "health" of the Kanto Groundwater Basin, and thus permit sustainable use of the groundwater resource.

  12. Comparison of selection methods to deduce natural background levels for groundwater units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Griffioen, J.; Passier, H.F.; Klein, J.

    2008-01-01

    Establishment of natural background levels (NBL) for groundwater is commonly performed to serve as reference when assessing the contamination status of groundwater units. We compare various selection methods to establish NBLs using groundwater quality data forfour hydrogeologically different areas i

  13. Comparison of selection methods to deduce natural background levels for groundwater units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Griffioen, J.; Passier, H.F.; Klein, J.

    2008-01-01

    Establishment of natural background levels (NBL) for groundwater is commonly performed to serve as reference when assessing the contamination status of groundwater units. We compare various selection methods to establish NBLs using groundwater quality data forfour hydrogeologically different areas

  14. Forecasting the effects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, R.; Kreins, P.; Tetzlaff, B.; Wendland, F.

    2009-04-01

    be expected to be reduced only by about 10 kg N ha-1 a-1 on average for the whole Weser basin. However, for the agriculturally intensive used regions the expected N surpluses reduction may be much higher and can amount 40 kg N ha-1 a-1 or more. The REGLUD model system is used to quantify the potential effects of these projected N surpluses on the intakes into the groundwater the nitrogen pollution of surface waters. A comparison to the present situation shows that the potential nitrate concentration in the leachate will decrease in almost all regions of the Weser basin, mostly by about 10 mg NO3/L. In the agriculturally intensive used regions much higher reductions in the order of 40 mg NO3/L may be expected. Consequently, reduced nitrogen outflows to surface waters via the different pathways are obtained. Using environmental target values for groundwater and surface waters, e.g. a concentration of 50 mg NO3/L in the leachate as a target for groundwater protection, the model results can be used directly to identify those regions where additional agri-environmental reduction measures are required. Additionally, a backward calculation by the REGFLUD allows the quantification of maximal permissible nitrogen surplus levels, which can be used as a reference for the derivation of additional regionally adapted and hence effective nitrogen reduction measures. The research work presented here is carried out in the framework of the still ongoing AGRUM Weser project which is funded on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer protection (BMELV) and the River Basin Commission Weser (FGG).

  15. Wavelet-entropy data pre-processing approach for ANN-based groundwater level modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Alami, Mohammad Taghi; Vousoughi, Farnaz Daneshvar

    2015-05-01

    Accurate and reliable groundwater level forecasting models can help ensure the sustainable use of a watershed's aquifers for urban and rural water supply. In this paper, a Self-Organizing-Map (SOM)-based clustering technique was used to identify spatially homogeneous clusters of groundwater level (GWL) data for a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) to model one and multi-step-ahead GWLs. The wavelet transform (WT) was also used to extract dynamic and multi-scale features of the non-stationary GWL, runoff and rainfall time series. The performance of the FFNN model was compared to the newly proposed combined WT-FFNN model and also the conventional linear forecasting method of ARIMAX (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous input). GWL predictions were investigated under three different scenarios. The results indicated that the proposed FFNN model coupled with the SOM-based clustering method decreased the dimensionality of the input variables and consequently the complexity of the FFNN models. On the other hand, the application of the wavelet transform to GWL data increased the performance of the FFNN model up to 15.3% in average by revealing the dominant periods of the process.

  16. Groundwater ecohydrology: GIScience tools to forecast change and sustainability of global ecosystems, studies in Africa, Europe and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward, D. R.; de Lange, W. J.; Yang, X.; Vasak, S. L.; Olsthoorn, T. N.

    2009-03-01

    This study examines the interface between groundwater hydrology and ecology, and addresses a scientific grand challenge to develop a comprehensive, systematic understanding of continental water dynamics by linking the hydrosphere and biosphere. There exists a current lack of data interoperability between groundwater modeling tools due to differences in numerical techniques - Analytic Element Method (AEM), Finite Difference Method (FDM), and Finite Element Method (FEM) - which lend themselves well to either vector or raster data, and legacy input/output file formats that are not well suited across models. Nonetheless, investigative computational tools are all founded in the same conceptualization of hydrologic properties associated with mass, flux, pathways and residence time. A consistent framework is developed using modern Geographic Information Science (GIScience) methods to organize and archive important information from international datasets and previous groundwater ecohydrology studies organized around aquifer and water point, line, polygon and raster features. Case studies illustrate the efficacy of this platform to address existing data interoperability issues for representative groundwater ecohydrology problems of global significance including the impact of human-induced forcings, change in species, and forcings by natural processes on groundwater ecohydrology. In North America, we study the relationships between groundwater pumping in the Ogallala Aquifer and changes in riparian habitat and phreatophyte species composition. In Europe, we study the impacts of changes in forest species composition on groundwater recharge and baseflow to biologically diverse fens and wetlands in the Veluwe sand hill region of The Netherlands. In Africa, we study the wetlands of the Okavango Delta in Botswana that forms an oasis in the midst of the Kalahari Desert and the role of groundwater in flushing salts from this freshwater ecosystem. In each study, we document the

  17. Risk assessment of groundwater level variability using variable Kriging methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

    2015-04-01

    Assessment of the water table level spatial variability in aquifers provides useful information regarding optimal groundwater management. This information becomes more important in basins where the water table level has fallen significantly. The spatial variability of the water table level in this work is estimated based on hydraulic head measured during the wet period of the hydrological year 2007-2008, in a sparsely monitored basin in Crete, Greece, which is of high socioeconomic and agricultural interest. Three Kriging-based methodologies are elaborated in Matlab environment to estimate the spatial variability of the water table level in the basin. The first methodology is based on the Ordinary Kriging approach, the second involves auxiliary information from a Digital Elevation Model in terms of Residual Kriging and the third methodology calculates the probability of the groundwater level to fall below a predefined minimum value that could cause significant problems in groundwater resources availability, by means of Indicator Kriging. The Box-Cox methodology is applied to normalize both the data and the residuals for improved prediction results. In addition, various classical variogram models are applied to determine the spatial dependence of the measurements. The Matérn model proves to be the optimal, which in combination with Kriging methodologies provides the most accurate cross validation estimations. Groundwater level and probability maps are constructed to examine the spatial variability of the groundwater level in the basin and the associated risk that certain locations exhibit regarding a predefined minimum value that has been set for the sustainability of the basin's groundwater resources. Acknowledgement The work presented in this paper has been funded by the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY), Fellowships of Excellence for Postdoctoral Studies (Siemens Program), 'A simulation-optimization model for assessing the best practices for the

  18. Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E

    2011-06-01

    To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area.

  19. The impact of groundwater level on soil seed bank survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, RM; Oomes, MJM; Bakker, JP

    Seed longevity of plant species is an important topic in restoration management, and little is known about the effects of environmental conditions on seed survival and longevity under natural conditions. Therefore, the effect of groundwater level on the survival of seeds in the soil seed bank of a

  20. Forecasting the Levels of Vector Autoregressive Log-Transformed Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Ariñ o; Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we give explicit expressions for the forecasts of levels of a vector time series when such forecasts are generated from (possibly cointegrated) vector autoregressions for the corresponding log-transformed time series. We also show that simply taking exponentials of forecast

  1. Groundwater levels in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan, 2004-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taher, Mohammad R.; Chornack, Michael P.; Mack, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    The Afghanistan Geological Survey, with technical assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey, established a network of wells to measure and monitor groundwater levels to assess seasonal, areal, and potentially climatic variations in groundwater characteristics in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan, the most populous region in the country. Groundwater levels were monitored in 71 wells in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan, starting as early as July 2004 and continuing to the present (2013). The monitoring network is made up exclusively of existing production wells; therefore, both static and dynamic water levels were recorded. Seventy wells are in unconsolidated sediments, and one well is in bedrock. Water levels were measured periodically, generally monthly, using electric tape water-level meters. Water levels in well 64 on the grounds of the Afghanistan Geological Survey building were measured more frequently. This report provides a 10-year compilation of groundwater levels in the Kabul Basin prepared in cooperation with the Afghanistan Geological Survey. Depths to water below land surface range from a minimum of 1.47 meters (m) in the Shomali subbasin to a maximum of 73.34 m in the Central Kabul subbasin. The Logar subbasin had the smallest range in depth to water below land surface (1.5 to 12.4 m), whereas the Central Kabul subbasin had the largest range (2.64 to 73.34 m). Seasonal water-level fluctuations can be estimated from the hydrographs in this report for wells that have depth-to-water measurements collected under static conditions. The seasonal water-level fluctuations range from less than 1 m to a little more than 7 m during the monitoring period. In general, the hydrographs for the Deh Sabz, Logar, Paghman and Upper Kabul, and Shomali subbasins show relatively little change in the water-level trend during the period of record, whereas hydrographs for the Central Kabul subbasin show water level decreases of several meters to about 25 m.

  2. Groundwater Level Status Report for Fiscal Year 2007 - Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shannon P. Allen, Richard J. Koch

    2008-03-17

    The status of groundwater level monitoring at Los Alamos National Laboratory in Fiscal Year 2007 is provided in this report. The Groundwater Level Monitoring Project was instituted in 2005 to provide a framework for the collection and processing of quality controlled groundwater level data. This report summarizes groundwater level data for 166 monitoring wells, including 45 regional aquifer wells, 25 intermediate wells, and 96 alluvial wells, and 11 water supply wells. Pressure transducers were installed in 133 monitoring wells for continuous monitoring of groundwater levels. Time-series hydrographs of groundwater level data are presented along with pertinent construction and location information for each well.

  3. Groundwater Level Status Report for Fiscal Year 2006 Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shannon P. Allen, Richard J. Koch

    2007-03-30

    The status of groundwater level monitoring at Los Alamos National Laboratory in Fiscal Year 2006 is provided in this report. The Groundwater Level Monitoring Project was instituted in 2005 for providing a framework for the collection and processing of quality controlled groundwater level data. This report summarizes groundwater level data for 158 monitoring wells, including 43 regional aquifer wells, 23 intermediate wells, and 92 alluvial wells. Pressure transducers were installed in 132 monitoring wells for continuous monitoring of groundwater levels. Time-series hydrographs of groundwater level data are presented along with pertinent construction and location information for each well.

  4. Groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braids, Olin C.; Gillies, Nola P.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of groundwater quality covering publications of 1977. This review includes: (1) sources of groundwater contamination; and (2) management of groundwater. A list of 59 references is also presented. (HM)

  5. Remediation alternatives for low-level herbicide contaminated groundwater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conger, R.M. [BASF Corp., Geismar, LA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    In early 1995, an evaluation of alternatives for remediation of a shallow groundwater plume containing low-levels of an organic herbicide was conducted at BASF Corporation, a petrochemical facility located in Ascension Parish, Louisiana. The contaminated site is located on an undeveloped portion of property within 1/4 mile of the east bank of the Mississippi River near the community of Geismar. Environmental assessment data indicated that about two acres of the thirty acre site had been contaminated from past waste management practices with the herbicide bentazon. Shallow soils and groundwater between 5 to 15 feet in depth were affected. Maximum concentrations of bentazon in groundwater were less than seven parts per million. To identify potentially feasible remediation alternatives, the environmental assessment data, available research, and cost effectiveness were reviewed. After consideration of a preliminary list of alternatives, only two potentially feasible alternatives could be identified. Groundwater pumping, the most commonly used remediation alternative, followed by carbon adsorption treatment was identified as was a new innovative alternative known as vegetative transpiration. This alternative relies on the natural transpiration processes of vegetation to bioremediate organic contaminants. Advantages identified during screening suggest that the transpiration method could be the best remediation alternative to address both economic and environmental factors. An experiment to test critical factors of the vegetatived transpiration alternative with bentazon was recommended before a final decision on feasibility can be made.

  6. Groundwater: Quality Levels and Human Exposure, SW Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusola Adeyemi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater serves as a source of freshwater for agricultural, industrial and domestic purposes and it accounts for about 42%, 27% and 36% respectively. As it remains the only source of all-year-round supply of freshwater globally, it is of vital importance as regards water security, human survival and sustainable agriculture. The main goal of this study is to identify the main cause-effect relationship between human activities and the state of groundwater quality using a communication tool (the DPSIR Model; Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact and Response. A total of twenty-one samples were collected from ten peri-urban communities scattered across three conterminous Local Government Areas in Southwestern Nigeria. Each of the groundwater samples was tested for twelve parameters - total dissolved solids, pH, bicarbonate, chloride, lead, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, sulphate, magnesium and total suspended solids. The study revealed that the concentrations of DO and Pb were above threshold limits, while pH and N were just below the threshold and others elements were within acceptable limits based on Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality and Nigeria Standard for Drinking Water Quality. The study revealed that groundwater quality levels from the sampled wells are under pressure leading to reduction in the amount of freshwater availability. This is a first-order setback in achieving access to freshwater as a sustainable development goal across Less Developed Communities (LDCs globally. To combat this threat, there is the need for an integrated approach in response towards groundwater conservation and sustainability by all stakeholders.

  7. Groundwater ecohydrology: GIScience tools to forecast change and sustainability of global ecosystems, studies in Africa, Europe and North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Steward

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the interface between groundwater hydrology and ecology, and addresses a scientific grand challenge to develop a comprehensive, systematic understanding of continental water dynamics by linking the hydrosphere and biosphere. There exists a current lack of data interoperability between groundwater modeling tools due to differences in numerical techniques – Analytic Element Method (AEM, Finite Difference Method (FDM, and Finite Element Method (FEM – which lend themselves well to either vector or raster data, and legacy input/output file formats that are not well suited across models. Nonetheless, investigative computational tools are all founded in the same conceptualization of hydrologic properties associated with mass, flux, pathways and residence time. A consistent framework is developed using modern Geographic Information Science (GIScience methods to organize and archive important information from international datasets and previous groundwater ecohydrology studies organized around aquifer and water point, line, polygon and raster features. Case studies illustrate the efficacy of this platform to address existing data interoperability issues for representative groundwater ecohydrology problems of global significance including the impact of human-induced forcings, change in species, and forcings by natural processes on groundwater ecohydrology. In North America, we study the relationships between groundwater pumping in the Ogallala Aquifer and changes in riparian habitat and phreatophyte species composition. In Europe, we study the impacts of changes in forest species composition on groundwater recharge and baseflow to biologically diverse fens and wetlands in the Veluwe sand hill region of The Netherlands. In Africa, we study the wetlands of the Okavango Delta in Botswana that forms an oasis in the midst of the Kalahari Desert and the role of groundwater in flushing salts from this freshwater ecosystem. In each study

  8. Separation of base flow from streamflow using groundwater levels - illustrated for the Pang catchment (UK)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, E.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    A new filter to separate base flow from streamflow has developed that uses observed groundwater levels. To relate the base flow to the observed groundwater levels, a non-linear relation was used. This relation is suitable for unconfined aquifers with deep groundwater levels that do not respond to

  9. Separation of base flow from streamflow using groundwater levels - illustrated for the Pang catchment (UK)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, E.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    A new filter to separate base flow from streamflow has developed that uses observed groundwater levels. To relate the base flow to the observed groundwater levels, a non-linear relation was used. This relation is suitable for unconfined aquifers with deep groundwater levels that do not respond to in

  10. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  11. The backend design of an environmental monitoring system upon real-time prediction of groundwater level fluctuation under the hillslope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Hong, Yao-Ming; Kan, Yao-Chiang

    2012-01-01

    The groundwater level represents a critical factor to evaluate hillside landslides. A monitoring system upon the real-time prediction platform with online analytical functions is important to forecast the groundwater level due to instantaneously monitored data when the heavy precipitation raises the groundwater level under the hillslope and causes instability. This study is to design the backend of an environmental monitoring system with efficient algorithms for machine learning and knowledge bank for the groundwater level fluctuation prediction. A Web-based platform upon the model-view controller-based architecture is established with technology of Web services and engineering data warehouse to support online analytical process and feedback risk assessment parameters for real-time prediction. The proposed system incorporates models of hydrological computation, machine learning, Web services, and online prediction to satisfy varieties of risk assessment requirements and approaches of hazard prevention. The rainfall data monitored from the potential landslide area at Lu-Shan, Nantou and Li-Shan, Taichung, in Taiwan, are applied to examine the system design.

  12. Electricity forecasting on the individual household level enhanced based on activity patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajowniczek, Krzysztof; Ząbkowski, Tomasz

    2017-01-01

    Leveraging smart metering solutions to support energy efficiency on the individual household level poses novel research challenges in monitoring usage and providing accurate load forecasting. Forecasting electricity usage is an especially important component that can provide intelligence to smart meters. In this paper, we propose an enhanced approach for load forecasting at the household level. The impacts of residents' daily activities and appliance usages on the power consumption of the entire household are incorporated to improve the accuracy of the forecasting model. The contributions of this paper are threefold: (1) we addressed short-term electricity load forecasting for 24 hours ahead, not on the aggregate but on the individual household level, which fits into the Residential Power Load Forecasting (RPLF) methods; (2) for the forecasting, we utilized a household specific dataset of behaviors that influence power consumption, which was derived using segmentation and sequence mining algorithms; and (3) an extensive load forecasting study using different forecasting algorithms enhanced by the household activity patterns was undertaken.

  13. Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: some further considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Baal, Pieter H; Wong, Albert

    2012-12-01

    Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981-2007. Forecasts for the years 2008-2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models' forecasts of HCE for the 2008-2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE.

  14. Response of groundwater level and surface-water/groundwater interaction to climate variability: Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tao; Raiber, Matthias; Pagendam, Dan; Gilfedder, Mat; Rassam, David

    2017-08-01

    Understanding the response of groundwater levels in alluvial and sedimentary basin aquifers to climatic variability and human water-resource developments is a key step in many hydrogeological investigations. This study presents an analysis of groundwater response to climate variability from 2000 to 2012 in the Queensland part of the sedimentary Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia. It contributes to the baseline hydrogeological understanding by identifying the primary groundwater flow pattern, water-level response to climate extremes, and the resulting dynamics of surface-water/groundwater interaction. Groundwater-level measurements from thousands of bores over several decades were analysed using Kriging and nonparametric trend analysis, together with a newly developed three-dimensional geological model. Groundwater-level contours suggest that groundwater flow in the shallow aquifers shows local variations in the close vicinity of streams, notwithstanding general conformance with topographic relief. The trend analysis reveals that climate variability can be quickly reflected in the shallow aquifers of the Clarence-Moreton Basin although the alluvial aquifers have a quicker rainfall response than the sedimentary bedrock formations. The Lockyer Valley alluvium represents the most sensitively responding alluvium in the area, with the highest declining (-0.7 m/year) and ascending (2.1 m/year) Sen's slope rates during and after the drought period, respectively. Different surface-water/groundwater interaction characteristics were observed in different catchments by studying groundwater-level fluctuations along hydrogeologic cross-sections. The findings of this study lay a foundation for future water-resource management in the study area.

  15. GROUNDWATER OF OREL REGION AND FORECAST OF THEIR POLLUTION IN AREAS OF LIVESTOCK COMPLEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Seleznev

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In areas with intense economic activity showed a significant variety of forms of man-made ecological imbalance in the geological environment, as well as a manifestation of the natural geological environment of negative processes caused by groundwater. They give rise to environmental changes, both global and local scales. The degree of risk is determined to a large extent the processes taking place en masse in the geological environment, as a rule, have an inertial character and hidden from direct observation. For the first time for groundwater of Orel region is set by a previously unknown contaminant natural character due to the advancement of strontium in the groundwater complex, and is composed geofiltration model that allows to carry out prediction of the front of strontium in 27 years. Developed a model of the radial pull of nitrate intake group to establish the pathways of contaminant in water wells.

  16. Development of multimodel ensemble based district level medium range rainfall forecast system for Indian region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S K Roy Bhowmik; V R Durai

    2012-04-01

    India Meteorological Department has implemented district level medium range rainfall forecast system applying multimodel ensemble technique, making use of model outputs of state-of-the-art global models from the five leading global NWP centres. The pre-assigned grid point weights on the basis of anomaly correlation coefficients (CC) between the observed values and forecast values are determined for each constituent model at the resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° utilizing two season datasets (1 June–30 September, 2007 and 2008) and the multimodel ensemble forecasts (day-1 to day-5 forecasts) are generated at the same resolution on a real-time basis. The ensemble forecast fields are then used to prepare forecasts for each district, taking the average value of all grid points falling in a particular district. In this paper, we describe the development strategy of the technique and performance skill of the system during summer monsoon 2009. The study demonstrates the potential of the system for improving rainfall forecasts at five days time scale over Indian region. Districtwise performance of the ensemble rainfall forecast reveals that the technique, in general, is capable of providing reasonably good forecast skill over most states of the country, particularly over the states where the monsoon systems are more dominant.

  17. Reliable groundwater levels: failures and lessons learned from modeling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Lanen, Henny A. J.

    2017-04-01

    Adequate management of groundwater resources requires an a priori assessment of impacts of intended groundwater abstractions. Usually, groundwater flow modeling is used to simulate the influence of the planned abstraction on groundwater levels. Model performance is tested by using observed groundwater levels. Where a multi-aquifer system occurs, groundwater levels in the different aquifers have to be monitored through observation wells with filters at different depths, i.e. above the impermeable clay layer (phreatic water level) and beneath (artesian aquifer level). A reliable artesian level can only be measured if the space between the outer wall of the borehole (vertical narrow shaft) and the observation well is refilled with impermeable material at the correct depth (post-drilling phase) to prevent a vertical hydraulic connection between the artesian and phreatic aquifer. We were involved in improper refilling, which led to impossibility to monitor reliable artesian aquifer levels. At the location of the artesian observation well, a freely overflowing spring was seen, which implied water leakage from the artesian aquifer affected the artesian groundwater level. Careful checking of the monitoring sites in a study area is a prerequisite to use observations for model performance assessment. After model testing the groundwater model is forced with proposed groundwater abstractions (sites, extraction rates). The abstracted groundwater volume is compensated by a reduction of groundwater flow to the drainage network and the model simulates associated groundwater tables. The drawdown of groundwater level is calculated by comparing the simulated groundwater level with and without groundwater abstraction. In lowland areas, such as vast areas of the Netherlands, the groundwater model has to consider a variable drainage network, which means that small streams only carry water during the wet winter season, and run dry during the summer. The main streams drain groundwater

  18. Low-Level Turbulence Forecasts From Fine-Scale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Army Research Laboratory Computational and Information Sciences Directorate Battlefield Environment Division (ATTN: RDRL- CIE -M) White Sands Missile... colors show where the forecast is for LGT and MOD turbulence respectively. By 1800 UTC (figure 31) the boundary has progressed across the entire

  19. Groundwater level deterioration issues and suggested solution for the water curtain cultivation area in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongcheol; Lee, Bongju; Ha, Kucheol; Yoon, Yunyeol; Moon, Sangho; Cho, Suyoung; Kim, Seongyun

    2013-04-01

    Protected water curtain cultivation system is an energy saving technique for winter season by splashing groundwater on the inner roof of the green house. But the issue is that the method results in groundwater level deterioration because it disposes the used groundwater to nearby stream. Reuse of the groundwater for water curtain cultivation is important Groundwater level, steam level, and groundwater usage rate are investigated at the five green house concentrated areas such as Cheongwon, Namyangju, Choongju, Namwon, Jinju. Groundwater usage rate is estimated using a ultrasonic flowmeter for a specific well and using the combination of pressure sensor and propeller type velocity counting equipment at a water disposal channel from November to April which is water curtain cultivating season. Groundwater usage rate ranges from 46.9m3/d to 108.0m3/d for a 10a greenhouse. Groundwater level change is strongly influenced by seasonal variation of rainfall and concentrated pumping activities in winter but the level is lower than stream level all year long resulting in all year around losing stream at Cheongwon, Namyangju, Jinju. At Nanwon, the stream is converted from losing one in winter to gaining one in summer. Groundwater level deterioration at concentrated water curtain cultivation area is found to be severe for some area where circulating water curtain cultivation system is need to be applied for groundwater restoration and sustainable cultivation in winter. Circulating water curtain cultivation system can restore the groundwater level by recharging the used groundwater through injection well and then pumping out from pumping well.

  20. Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samrit Luoma

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change and Baltic Sea level rise on groundwater resources in a shallow, unconfined, low-lying coastal aquifer in Hanko, southern Finland, was assessed using the UZF1 model package coupled with the three-dimensional groundwater flow model MODFLOW to simulate flow from the unsaturated zone through the aquifer. The snow and PET models were used to calculate the surface water availability for infiltration from the precipitation data used in UZF1. Infiltration rate, flow in the unsaturated zone and groundwater recharge were then simulated using UZF1. The simulation data from climate and sea level rise scenarios were compared with present data. The results indicated changes in recharge pattern during 2071–2100, with recharge occurring earlier in winter and early spring. The seasonal impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge were more significant, with surface overflow resulting in flooding during winter and early spring and drought during summer. Rising sea level would cause some parts of the aquifer to be under sea level, compromising groundwater quality due to intrusion of sea water. This, together with increased groundwater recharge, would raise groundwater levels and consequently contribute more surface leakage and potential flooding in the low-lying aquifer.

  1. Spatial analyses of groundwater levels using universal kriging

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Kemal Sulhi Gundogdu; Ibrahim Guney

    2007-02-01

    For water levels, generally a non-stationary variable, the technique of universal kriging is applied in preference to ordinary kriging as the interpolation method. Each set of data in every sector can fit different empirical semivariogram models since they have different spatial structures. These models can be classified as circular, spherical, tetraspherical, pentaspherical, exponential, gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-bessel, J-bessel and stable. This study aims to determine which of these empirical semivariogram models will be best matched with the experimental models obtained from groundwater-table values collected from Mustafakemalpasa left bank irrigation scheme in 2002. The model having the least error was selected by comparing the observed water-table values with the values predicted by empirical semivariogram models. It was determined that the rational quadratic empirical semivariogram model is the best fitted model for the studied irrigation area.

  2. Confirmation of elevated arsenic levels in groundwater of Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geen, Alexander; Win, Kyi Htut; Zaw, Than; Naing, Win; Mey, Jacob L.; Mailloux, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Millions of villagers across South and Southeast Asia are exposed to toxic levels of arsenic (As) by drinking well water. In order to confirm field-kit results that Myanmar is also affected, a total of 55 wells were tested in the field in January 2013 and sampled for laboratory analysis across seven villages spanning a range of As contamination in the lower Ayeyarwady basin. Elevated concentrations of As (50–630 μg/L) were measured in wells up to 60 m deep and associated with high levels of Fe (up to 21 mg/L) and low concentrations of SO4 (<0.05 mg/L). Concentrations of As <10 μg/L were measured in some shallow (<30 m) grey sands and in both shallow and deep orange sands. These results indicate that the main mechanism of As release to groundwater in Myanmar is the reductive dissolution of Fe oxyhydroxides, as in the neighboring Bengal, Mekong, and Red River basins. Concentrations of As in groundwater of Myanmar are therefore unlikely to change rapidly over time and switching to existing low-As wells is a viable way of reducing exposure in the short term. However, only 17 of the 55 well owners interviewed correctly recalled the status of their well despite extensive testing in the region. A renewed effort is thus needed to test existing wells and new wells that continue to be installed and to communicate the health risks of exposure to As for infants, children, and adults. PMID:24530581

  3. Flow Forecasting using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydrodynamic Urban Drainage Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisbet Sneftrup Hansen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing requirement to generate more precise model simulations and forecasts of flows in urban drainage systems in both offline and online situations. Data assimilation tools are hence needed to make it possible to include system measurements in distributed, physically-based urban drainage models and reduce a number of unavoidable discrepancies between the model and reality. The latter can be achieved partly by inserting measured water levels from the sewer system into the model. This article describes how deterministic updating of model states in this manner affects a simulation, and then evaluates and documents the performance of this particular updating procedure for flow forecasting. A hypothetical case study and synthetic observations are used to illustrate how the Update method works and affects downstream nodes. A real case study in a 544 ha urban catchment furthermore shows that it is possible to improve the 20-min forecast of water levels in an updated node and the three-hour forecast of flow through a downstream node, compared to simulations without updating. Deterministic water level updating produces better forecasts when implemented in large networks with slow flow dynamics and with measurements from upstream basins that contribute significantly to the flow at the forecast location.

  4. Strain Observation Affected by Groundwater-Level Change in Seismic Precursor Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Cao, Daiyong; Zhang, Jingfa

    2017-03-01

    Groundwater extraction is one of the most typical disturbance factors for strain observation in seismic precursor monitoring. The statistic regression method is used to study based on the relation between the variation of strain and the groundwater level. The least square regression linear model is built between the annual variation of Sangzi groundwater level and the Xiaoxinzhuang strain data. Such model meets t test with significance level α = 0. 0 5, which confirms that groundwater-level change in each year affects strain measurement significantly and strain's trend variation is related to groundwater-level change. Consequently, a new correction method about strain data is put forward based on the groundwater-level annual variation to eliminate the trend change. Results indicate that the accumulated residual deformation causes the horizontal displacement and strain change, which is on account of that the amount of groundwater recharge is less than that of extraction around Xiaoxinzhuang cave, the phreatic surface continues to descend, and residual deformation accumulates and leads to local subsidence area. Therefore, the decline trend change of strain is related to groundwater-level change and is not seismic precursor.

  5. Automated system for monitoring groundwater levels at an experimental low-level waste disposal site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newbold, J.D.; Bogle, M.A.

    1984-06-01

    One of the major problems with disposing of low-level solid wastes in the eastern United States is the potential for water-waste interactions and leachate migration. To monitor groundwater fluctuations and the frequency with which groundwater comes into contact with a group of experimental trenches, work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Engineered Test Facility (ETF) has employed a network of water level recorders that feed information from 15 on-site wells to a centralized data recording system. The purpose of this report is to describe the monitoring system being used and to document the computer programs that have been developed to process the data. Included in this report are data based on more than 2 years of water level information for ETF wells 1 through 12 and more than 6 months of data from all 15 wells. The data thus reflect both long-term trends as well as a large number of short-term responses to individual storm events. The system was designed to meet the specific needs of the ETF, but the hardware and computer routines have generic application to a variety of groundwater monitoring situations. 5 references.

  6. Effects of Soil and Water Conservation Measures on Groundwater Levels and Recharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Wang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Measures of soil and water conservation (SWC could affect the hydrological process. The impacts of typical measures on groundwater recharge, levels and flow were analyzed based on simulated rainfall experiments and a groundwater model. The three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model (MODFLOW was calibrated and verified for bare slope, grassland and straw mulching scenarios based on the experiments. The results of the verification in groundwater balance, levels, runoff and flow field all showed that MODFLOW could be applied to study the impact of SWC measures on groundwater. Meanwhile, the results showed the recharge rate (α and specific yield of the three soil layers (Sy1, Sy2 and Sy3 were the most sensitive parameters to the change in the underlying surface. Then, the impacts of the SWC measures’ construction and destruction on the groundwater regime were studied. The results indicated the measures could strengthen groundwater recharge. The amounts of groundwater recharge, runoff and level were on the order of straw mulching > grassland > bare slope. When the underlying surface was converted from grass and mulching to bare slope, the recharge decreased by 42.2% and 39.1%. It was concluded that SWC measure construction would increase groundwater recharge and the measure destruction would decrease recharge.

  7. Machine learning algorithms for modeling groundwater level changes in agricultural regions of the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, S.; Russo, T. A.; Elliott, J.; Foster, I.

    2017-05-01

    Climate, groundwater extraction, and surface water flows have complex nonlinear relationships with groundwater level in agricultural regions. To better understand the relative importance of each driver and predict groundwater level change, we develop a new ensemble modeling framework based on spectral analysis, machine learning, and uncertainty analysis, as an alternative to complex and computationally expensive physical models. We apply and evaluate this new approach in the context of two aquifer systems supporting agricultural production in the United States: the High Plains aquifer (HPA) and the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA). We select input data sets by using a combination of mutual information, genetic algorithms, and lag analysis, and then use the selected data sets in a Multilayer Perceptron network architecture to simulate seasonal groundwater level change. As expected, model results suggest that irrigation demand has the highest influence on groundwater level change for a majority of the wells. The subset of groundwater observations not used in model training or cross-validation correlates strongly (R > 0.8) with model results for 88 and 83% of the wells in the HPA and MRVA, respectively. In both aquifer systems, the error in the modeled cumulative groundwater level change during testing (2003-2012) was less than 2 m over a majority of the area. We conclude that our modeling framework can serve as an alternative approach to simulating groundwater level change and water availability, especially in regions where subsurface properties are unknown.

  8. Data-driven behavioural characterization of dry-season groundwater-level variation in Maharashtra, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rahul Gokhale; Milind Sohoni

    2015-06-01

    This paper looks at the crucial issue of dry-season groundwater-availability in the state of Maharashtra, India. We look at the two key hydro-climatological measurements which are used to implement ground-water policy in the state, viz., water levels in 5000+ observation wells across the state and aggregate rainfall data. We see that there is substantial variation in groundwater levels within and across the years in most wells. We argue that for a large number of these observation well locations, aggregate rainfall data is inadequate to model or to predict groundwater levels. For this, we use a novel random rainfall coefficient model for the purpose of modelling the effect of rainfall in a composite setting where extraction and changing land-use data is unknown. The observed high variance of this coefficient points to significant variations in groundwater levels, which may only be explained by unmeasured anthropogenic factors. Next, we see that the uncertainty in actual groundwater levels along with scarcity are two distinct features of groundwater availability and will elicit different behaviours from the typical user. Finally, we recommend that quantitative groundwater assessment protocols of the state should move to incorporating data from which extraction and land-use may be modelled. We believe this is one of the first studies where large spatio-temporal scale data gathered by state agencies have been analysed for scientific adequacy.

  9. Nitrate levels and the age of groundwater from the Upper Devonian sandstone aquifer in Fife, Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, G W; Anderson, J; Elliot, T

    2003-03-01

    The tritium concentrations in 13 groundwater samples from boreholes throughout the Upper Devonian sandstone aquifer of Fife have been measured. Due to atmospheric variations in tritium concentrations over the last century, this radioactive tracer can be used as a groundwater age indicator. In this study, the groundwater tritium concentrations have allowed for the area to be divided into three zones, and the variable chemistry of the groundwater samples, including the problem of recent elevated nitrate levels in the Fife Aquifer, has been interpreted in terms of their relative ages.

  10. Flow Forecasting in Urban Drainage Systems using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydraulic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lisbeth S.; Borup, Morten; Møller, A.;

    2011-01-01

    the performance of the updating procedure for flow forecasting. Measured water levels in combination with rain gauge input are used as basis for the evaluation. When compared to simulations without updating, the results show that it is possible to obtain an improvement in the 20 minute forecast of the water level...... to eliminate some of the unavoidable discrepancies between model and reality. The latter can partly be achieved by using the commercial tool MOUSE UPDATE, which is capable of inserting measured water levels from the system into the distributed, physically based MOUSE model. This study evaluates and documents...

  11. Towards a street-level pollen concentration and exposure forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Molen, Michiel; Krol, Maarten; van Vliet, Arnold; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2015-04-01

    Atmospheric pollen are an increasing source of nuisance for people in industrialised countries and are associated with significant cost of medication and sick leave. Citizen pollen warnings are often based on emission mapping based on local temperature sum approaches or on long-range atmospheric model approaches. In practise, locally observed pollen may originate from both local sources (plants in streets and gardens) and from long-range transport. We argue that making this distinction is relevant because the diurnal and spatial variation in pollen concentrations is much larger for pollen from local sources than for pollen from long-range transport due to boundary layer processes. This may have an important impact on exposure of citizens to pollen and on mitigation strategies. However, little is known about the partitioning of pollen into local and long-range origin categories. Our objective is to study how the concentrations of pollen from different sources vary temporally and spatially, and how the source region influences exposure and mitigation strategies. We built a Hay Fever Forecast system (HFF) based on WRF-chem, Allergieradar.nl, and geo-statistical downscaling techniques. HFF distinguishes between local (individual trees) and regional sources (based on tree distribution maps). We show first results on how the diurnal variation of pollen concentrations depends on source proximity. Ultimately, we will compare the model with local pollen counts, patient nuisance scores and medicine use.

  12. Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

    2016-10-01

    Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

  13. 1:750,000-scale static ground-water levels of Nevada

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set consists of static ground-water levels for the State of Nevada based on a 1974 ground-water map (Rush, 1974) published by the Nevada Department of...

  14. The Application of a Grey Markov Model to Forecasting Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hydrological Stations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Sheng; CHI Kun; ZHANG Qiyi; ZHANG Xiangdong

    2012-01-01

    Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM (1,1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

  15. Estimation of the uncertainty in water level forecasts at ungauged locations using Quantile Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roscoe, K. L.; Weerts, A. H.

    2012-04-01

    Water level predictions in rivers are used by operational managers to make water management decisions. Such decisions can concern water routing in times of drought, operation of weirs, and actions for flood protection, such as evacuation. Understanding the uncertainty in the predictions can help managers make better-informed decisions. Conditional Quantile Regression is a method that can be used to determine the uncertainty in forecasted water levels by providing an estimate of the probability density function of the error in the prediction conditional on the forecasted water level. To derive this relationship, a series of forecasts and errors in the forecasts (residuals) are required. Thus, conditional quantile regressions can be derived for locations where both observations and forecasts are available. However, 1D-hydraulic models that are used for operational forecasting produce forecasts at intermediate points where no measurements are available but for which predictive uncertainty estimates are also desired for decision making. The objective of our study is to test if interpolation methods can be used to adequately estimate conditional quantile regressions at these in-between locations. For this purpose, five years of hindcasts were used at seven stations along the IJssel River in the Netherlands. Residuals in water level hindcasts were interpolated at the five in-between lying stations. The interpolation was based solely on distance and the interpolated residuals were compared to the measured residuals at stations at the in-between locations. The resulting interpolated residuals estimated the measured residuals well, especially for longer lead times. Quantile regression was then carried out using the series of forecasts and interpolated residuals at the in-between stations. The interpolated quantile regressions were compared with regressions calibrated using the actual residuals at the in-between stations. Results show that even a simple interpolation based

  16. Regional scale assessment of soil predictors of groundwater phosphate (P) levels in acidic sandy agricultural soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mabilde, Lisa

    2016-04-01

    Possible factors affecting the leaching of P to the groundwater in the Belgian sandy area are examined via regression analysis. The main objective is to investigate the dependency of phreatic groundwater phosphate concentrations (Flemish VMM monitoring net, monitoring period 2010-2013) on soil phosphate saturation degree (PSD) (1994-1997 mapping for Flemish Land Agency) (n = 1032). Additionally explored parameters include: depth distributions of Fe- and Al-oxides, sorbed P and phosphate sorption capacity (PSC) and soil pH. Interpolated data of these soil parameters in 3 depth layers (0-30, 30-60, 60-90 cm) were generated by ordinary kriging. Secondly, we assessed the significance of other edaphic factors potentially controlling the groundwater P: topsoil organic carbon content (OC %), soil clay content and fluctuation of the groundwater table. Overall, the mean PSD halved with each 30 cm depth layer (56 > 24 > 13 %) and was correlated to groundwater PO43- level. The statistical significance of the correlation with groundwater PO43- concentrations increased with depth layer. The poor correlation (R2 = 0.01) between PSD and groundwater phosphate concentration indicates that many factors, other than soil P status, control the transport of P from soil solution to the groundwater in Belgian sandy soils. A significant (PStructural equation modeling for example could be used to understand the practical importance of individual soil, management and hydrological potential predictors of groundwater PO4.

  17. COMPARISON OF DETEMINISTIC INTERPOLATION METHODS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Kamińska

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares two spatial interpolation techniques – Radial Basis Functions (RBF and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW – with the goal of determining which method creates the best representation of reality for measured groundwater levels in catchment area. The study used the results of research and field observations from the year 2011, in Sosnowica (West Polesie. The data set consists of groundwater levels measured at 15 points in three series of tests. Surface generation was obtained for each method. The water prediction maps showed spatial variation in the groundwater level in the study area and they are quite different. RBF method resulted in a smoother map. The analysis of the methods of interpolation of analyzed data with the help of cross validation statistics and plots showed that Radial Basis Functions creates better representation of reality for measured groundwater levels.

  18. Comparison of Groundwater Level Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks and ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevenka Djurovic

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Water table forecasting plays an important role in the management of groundwater resources in agricultural regions where there are drainage systems in river valleys. The results presented in this paper pertain to an area along the left bank of the Danube River, in the Province of Vojvodina, which is the northern part of Serbia. Two soft computing techniques were used in this research: an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS and an artificial neural network (ANN model for one-month water table forecasts at several wells located at different distances from the river. The results suggest that both these techniques represent useful tools for modeling hydrological processes in agriculture, with similar computing and memory capabilities, such that they constitute an exceptionally good numerical framework for generating high-quality models.

  19. Comparison of Groundwater Level Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks and ANFIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domazet, Milka; Stricevic, Ruzica; Pocuca, Vesna; Spalevic, Velibor; Pivic, Radmila; Gregoric, Enika; Domazet, Uros

    2015-01-01

    Water table forecasting plays an important role in the management of groundwater resources in agricultural regions where there are drainage systems in river valleys. The results presented in this paper pertain to an area along the left bank of the Danube River, in the Province of Vojvodina, which is the northern part of Serbia. Two soft computing techniques were used in this research: an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and an artificial neural network (ANN) model for one-month water table forecasts at several wells located at different distances from the river. The results suggest that both these techniques represent useful tools for modeling hydrological processes in agriculture, with similar computing and memory capabilities, such that they constitute an exceptionally good numerical framework for generating high-quality models. PMID:26759830

  20. Demand Forecasting at Low Aggregation Levels using Factored Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocanu, Elena; Nguyen, Phuong H.; Gibescu, Madeleine

    2016-01-01

    The electrical demand forecasting problem can be regarded as a nonlinear time series prediction problem depending on many complex factors since it is required at various aggregation levels and at high temporal resolution. To solve this challenging problem, various time series and machine learning...... developed deep learning model for time series prediction, namely Factored Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (FCRBM), and extend it for electrical demand forecasting. The assessment is made on the EcoGrid dataset, originating from the Bornholm island experiment in Denmark, consisting of aggregated...

  1. Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Daniel J.; Odigie, Kingsley; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Barnard, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Study regionThe study region spans coastal California, USA, and focuses on three primary sites: Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon.Study focus1 m and 2 m sea-level rise (SLR) projections were used to assess vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling at select low-lying, coastal sites in California. Separate and combined inundation scenarios for SLR and groundwater emergence were developed using digital elevation models of study site topography and groundwater surfaces constructed from well data or published groundwater level contours.New hydrological insights for the regionSLR impacts are a serious concern in coastal California which has a long (∼1800 km) and populous coastline. Information on the possible importance of SLR-driven groundwater inundation in California is limited. In this study, the potential for SLR-driven groundwater inundation at three sites (Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon) was investigated under 1 m and 2 m SLR scenarios. These sites provide insight into the vulnerability of Northern California coastal plains, coastal developments built on beach sand or sand spits, and developed areas around coastal lagoons associated with seasonal streams and berms. Northern California coastal plains with abundant shallow groundwater likely will see significant and widespread groundwater emergence, while impacts along the much drier central and southern California coast may be less severe due to the absence of shallow groundwater in many areas. Vulnerability analysis is hampered by the lack of data on shallow coastal aquifers, which commonly are not studied because they are not suitable for domestic or agricultural use. Shallow saline aquifers may be present in many areas along coastal California, which would dramatically increase vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling. Improved understanding of the extent and response of California coastal aquifers to SLR will help in preparing for mitigation

  2. Study on the change rule of groundwater level and its impacts on vegetation at arid mining area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI Shao-gang; BIAN Zheng-fu; ZHANG Ri-chen; LI Lin

    2007-01-01

    The shallow groundwater in Shendong mining area was broken because of large-scale underground mining activities. Selecting 32201 working-face as research area,analyzed the change rule of groundwater level and aquifer thickness under mining impact with a large number of water level observation data. Then, the impacts of groundwater level change on vegetation were analyzed by the relationship theory of arid area groundwater and vegetation. The results show that the aquifer structure and the water condition of supply flow and drainage are changed by the water proof mining. The groundwater level recovere only a little compared with the original groundwater level in two years. But the great change of groundwater level do not have notable influences on vegetation of this mining area, and further study indicates that there are certain conditions where groundwater level change impacted on vegetation. When the influence of groundwater level change was evaluated, the plant ecological water level, warning water level and spatial distribution character of original groundwater and mining-impacted groundwater-level change should be integrated.

  3. Groundwater level responses to precipitation variability in Mediterranean insular aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; Garcia, Celso; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique

    2017-09-01

    Groundwater is one of the largest and most important sources of fresh water on many regions under Mediterranean climate conditions, which are exposed to large precipitation variability that includes frequent meteorological drought episodes, and present high evapotranspiration rates and water demand during the dry season. The dependence on groundwater increases in those areas with predominant permeable lithologies, contributing to aquifer recharge and the abundance of ephemeral streams. The increasing pressure of tourism on water resources in many Mediterranean coastal areas, and uncertainty related to future precipitation and water availability, make it urgent to understand the spatio-temporal response of groundwater bodies to precipitation variability, if sustainable use of the resource is to be achieved. We present an assessment of the response of aquifers to precipitation variability based on correlations between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various time scales and the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) across a Mediterranean island. We detected three main responses of aquifers to accumulated precipitation anomalies: (i) at short time scales of the SPI (24 months). The differing responses were mainly explained by differences in lithology and the percentage of highly permeable rock strata in the aquifer recharge areas. We also identified differences in the months and seasons when aquifer storages are more dependent on precipitation; these were related to climate seasonality and the degree of aquifer exploitation or underground water extraction. The recharge of some aquifers, especially in mountainous areas, is related to precipitation variability within a limited spatial extent, whereas for aquifers located in the plains, precipitation variability influence much larger areas; the topography and geological structure of the island explain these differences. Results indicate large spatial variability in the response of aquifers to precipitation in

  4. Isotope techniques for the research of groundwater in the potential site of China’s high-level waste repository

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭永海; 刘淑芬; 杨天笑; 姜桂林

    2001-01-01

    Using the isotope techniques, the groundwater origin, evolution and circulation in the potential site of China’s high-level waste repository are studied. The results indicate that both shallow groundwaters and deep groundwaters in the site area are of meteoric origin. The shallow groundwaters are mainly recharged by modern and local precipitation, and the deep groundwaters are originated from regional precipitation at higher elevation, or may be from the precipitation during the geological history period with lower temperature. Through the study we can also understand that the deep underground is a very low-permeability system where the groundwater flow-rates are very low.

  5. [Groundwater].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González De Posada, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    From the perspective of Hydrogeology, the concept and an introductory general typology of groundwater are established. From the perspective of Geotechnical Engineering works, the physical and mathematical equations of the hydraulics of permeable materials, which are implemented, by electric analogical simulation, to two unique cases of global importance, are considered: the bailing during the construction of the dry dock of the "new shipyard of the Bahia de Cádiz" and the waterproofing of the "Hatillo dam" in the Dominican Republic. From a physical fundamental perspective, the theories which are the subset of "analogical physical theories of Fourier type transport" are related, among which the one constituted by the laws of Adolf Fick in physiology occupies a historic role of some relevance. And finally, as a philosophical abstraction of so much useful mathematical process, the one which is called "the Galilean principle of the mathematical design of the Nature" is dealt with.

  6. Impact of Groundwater Level on Nitrate Nitrogen Accumulation in the Vadose Zone Beneath a Cotton Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiyun Jiao

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the impacts of groundwater level on nitrate nitrogen accumulation in the vadose zone of a cotton field were investigated. Experiments were conducted in a cotton field at the CAS Ecological Agricultural Experiment Station in Nanpi from 2008 to 2010. A vertical observation well was drilled, and time-domain reflectometry probes and soil solution extractors were installed every 50 cm in the walls of the well to a depth of 5 m. The soil water content was monitored, and soil solution samples were obtained and analyzed every six days throughout the growing seasons during the three studied years. Additionally, a water consumption experiment was conducted, and the topsoil water content and leaf area index were measured in the cotton field. The resulting data were used to estimate parameters for use in a soil hydraulic and nitrate nitrogen movement model, and cotton evapotranspiration was calculated using the Penman–Monteith method. Groundwater level increases and decreases of ±4 m were simulated during a ten-year period using HYDRUS-1D. The results showed significant nitrate nitrogen accumulation in the vadose zone when the groundwater level remained unchanged or decreased, with increased accumulation as the groundwater depth increased. Additionally, increased precipitation and a deeper groundwater level resulted in greater nitrate nitrogen leaching in the cotton root zone. Therefore, irrigation and fertilization strategies should be adjusted based on precipitation conditions and groundwater depth.

  7. Characterizing the regional pattern and temporal change of groundwater levels by analyses of a well log data set

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mahmuda PARVIN; Naoyuki TADAKUMA; Hisafumi ASAUE; Katsuaki KOIKE

    2011-01-01

    Preservation of the amount and quality of groundwater resources is an important issue around the world.Changes in groundwater levels need to be monitored in efforts to preserve groundwater.This study investigates suitable methods to characterize changes in the groundwater level and determine the factors involved.The area of Kumamoto,a city in central Kyushu,southwest Japan,was selected to demonstrate the usefulness of the methods because this area is one of the richest in Japan in terms of groundwater resources and takes all its water from groundwater.Data of the groundwater level recorded at 69 wells from 1979 to 2007 were used in geostatistical and correlogram analyses.First,strong correlation between the topography and groundwater level was identified.Incorporating this correlation into spatial modeling of the groundwater level,co-kriging was demonstrated to be more accurate than ordinary kriging.The co-kriging results clarified the hydraulic characteristics of the Kumamoto area; the patterns of shallow and deep groundwater levels were agreeable generally,and the general trends of their annual average levels were similar regardless of precipitation.Another important feature was that the correlograms for the precipitation amount and groundwater level had a constant shape and changed smoothly with a change in lag time regardless of the precipitation only in the area of Togawa lava.These characteristics are probably due to the connections between shallow and deep aquifers and the high permeability of Togawa lava.

  8. Hydrogeology, ground-water use, and ground-water levels in the Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schalk, Charles; Schumann, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Withdrawals of ground water in the central Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio, caused water-level declines of more than 100 feet by the 1950s. Since the 1950s, management practices have changed to reduce the withdrawals of ground water, and recovery of water levels in long-term monitoring wells in the valley has been documented. Changing conditions such as these prompted a survey of water use, streamflow conditions, and water levels in several aquifers in the central Mill Creek Valley, Hamilton and Butler Counties, Ohio. Geohydrologic information, water use, and water levels were compiled from historical records and collected during the regional survey. Data collected during the survey are presented in terms of updated geohydrologic information, water use in the study area, water levels in the aquifers, and interactions between ground water and surface water. Some of the data are concentrated at former Air Force Plant 36 (AFP36), which is collocated with the General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE) plant, and these data are used to describe geohydrology and water levels on a more local scale at and near the plant. A comparison of past and current ground-water use and levels indicates that the demand for ground water is decreasing and water levels are rising. Before 1955, most of the major industrial ground-water users had their own wells, ground water was mined from a confined surficial (lower) aquifer, and water levels were more than 100 feet below their predevelopment level. Since 1955, however, these users have been purchasing their water from the city of Cincinnati or a private water purveyor. The cities of Reading and Lockland, both producers of municipal ground-water supplies in the area, shut down their well fields within their city limits. Because the demand for ground-water supplies in the valley has lessened greatly since the 1950s, withdrawals have decreased, and, consequently, water levels in the lower aquifer are 65 to 105 feet higher than they were

  9. Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul A.; Daamen, Ruby C.; Petkewich, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773

  10. Effect of Different Groundwater Levels on Seismic Dynamic Response and Failure Mode of Sandy Slope.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuai Huang

    Full Text Available Heavy seismic damage tends to occur in slopes when groundwater is present. The main objectives of this paper are to determine the dynamic response and failure mode of sandy slope subjected simultaneously to seismic forces and variable groundwater conditions. This paper applies the finite element method, which is a fast and efficient design tool in modern engineering analysis, to evaluate dynamic response of the slope subjected simultaneously to seismic forces and variable groundwater conditions. Shaking table test is conducted to analyze the failure mode and verify the accuracy of the finite element method results. The research results show that dynamic response values of the slope have different variation rules under near and far field earthquakes. And the damage location and pattern of the slope are different in varying groundwater conditions. The destruction starts at the top of the slope when the slope is in no groundwater, which shows that the slope appears obvious whipping effect under the earthquake. The destruction starts at the toe of the slope when the slope is in the high groundwater levels. Meanwhile, the top of the slope shows obvious seismic subsidence phenomenon after earthquake. Furthermore, the existence of the groundwater has a certain effect of damping.

  11. Effect of Different Groundwater Levels on Seismic Dynamic Response and Failure Mode of Sandy Slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shuai; Lv, Yuejun; Peng, Yanju; Zhang, Lifang; Xiu, Liwei

    2015-01-01

    Heavy seismic damage tends to occur in slopes when groundwater is present. The main objectives of this paper are to determine the dynamic response and failure mode of sandy slope subjected simultaneously to seismic forces and variable groundwater conditions. This paper applies the finite element method, which is a fast and efficient design tool in modern engineering analysis, to evaluate dynamic response of the slope subjected simultaneously to seismic forces and variable groundwater conditions. Shaking table test is conducted to analyze the failure mode and verify the accuracy of the finite element method results. The research results show that dynamic response values of the slope have different variation rules under near and far field earthquakes. And the damage location and pattern of the slope are different in varying groundwater conditions. The destruction starts at the top of the slope when the slope is in no groundwater, which shows that the slope appears obvious whipping effect under the earthquake. The destruction starts at the toe of the slope when the slope is in the high groundwater levels. Meanwhile, the top of the slope shows obvious seismic subsidence phenomenon after earthquake. Furthermore, the existence of the groundwater has a certain effect of damping. PMID:26560103

  12. Effect of Different Groundwater Levels on Seismic Dynamic Response and Failure Mode of Sandy Slope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shuai; Lv, Yuejun; Peng, Yanju; Zhang, Lifang; Xiu, Liwei

    2015-01-01

    Heavy seismic damage tends to occur in slopes when groundwater is present. The main objectives of this paper are to determine the dynamic response and failure mode of sandy slope subjected simultaneously to seismic forces and variable groundwater conditions. This paper applies the finite element method, which is a fast and efficient design tool in modern engineering analysis, to evaluate dynamic response of the slope subjected simultaneously to seismic forces and variable groundwater conditions. Shaking table test is conducted to analyze the failure mode and verify the accuracy of the finite element method results. The research results show that dynamic response values of the slope have different variation rules under near and far field earthquakes. And the damage location and pattern of the slope are different in varying groundwater conditions. The destruction starts at the top of the slope when the slope is in no groundwater, which shows that the slope appears obvious whipping effect under the earthquake. The destruction starts at the toe of the slope when the slope is in the high groundwater levels. Meanwhile, the top of the slope shows obvious seismic subsidence phenomenon after earthquake. Furthermore, the existence of the groundwater has a certain effect of damping.

  13. Fe and Mn levels regulated by agricultural activities in alluvial groundwaters underneath a flooded paddy field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kangjoo [School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kunsan National University, Jeonbuk 573-701 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: kangjoo@kunsan.ac.kr; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Choi, Byoung-Young; Kim, Seok-Hwi; Park, Ki-hoon [School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kunsan National University, Jeonbuk 573-701 (Korea, Republic of); Park, Eungyu [Department of Geology, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 702-701 (Korea, Republic of); Koh, Dong-Chan [Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Yun, Seong-Taek [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Korea University, Seoul 136-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-01-15

    Iron and Mn concentrations in fresh groundwaters of alluvial aquifers are generally high in reducing conditions reflecting low SO{sub 4} concentrations. The mass balance and isotopic approaches of this study demonstrate that reduction of SO{sub 4}, supplied from agricultural activities such as fertilization and irrigation, is important in lowering Fe and Mn levels in alluvial groundwaters underneath a paddy field. This study was performed to investigate the processes regulating Fe and Mn levels in groundwaters of a point bar area, which has been intensively used for flood cultivation. Four multilevel-groundwater samplers were installed to examine the relationship between geology and the vertical changes in water chemistry. The results show that Fe and Mn levels are regulated by the presence of NO{sub 3} at shallow depths and by SO{sub 4} reduction at the greater depths. Isotopic and mass balance analyses revealed that NO{sub 3} and SO{sub 4} in groundwater are mostly supplied from the paddy field, suggesting that the Fe-and Mn-rich zone of the study area is confined by the agricultural activities. For this reason, the geologic conditions controlling the infiltration of agrochemicals are also important for the occurrence of Fe/Mn-rich groundwaters in the paddy field area.

  14. Evaluation of groundwater levels in the South Platte River alluvial aquifer, Colorado, 1953-2012, and design of initial well networks for monitoring groundwater levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, Tristan

    2015-01-01

    The South Platte River and underlying alluvial aquifer form an important hydrologic resource in northeastern Colorado that provides water to population centers along the Front Range and to agricultural communities across the rural plains. Water is regulated based on seniority of water rights and delivered using a network of administration structures that includes ditches, reservoirs, wells, impacted river sections, and engineered recharge areas. A recent addendum to Colorado water law enacted during 2002-2003 curtailed pumping from thousands of wells that lacked authorized augmentation plans. The restrictions in pumping were hypothesized to increase water storage in the aquifer, causing groundwater to rise near the land surface at some locations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Colorado Water Institute, completed an assessment of 60 years (yr) of historical groundwater-level records collected from 1953 to 2012 from 1,669 wells. Relations of "high" groundwater levels, defined as depth to water from 0 to 10 feet (ft) below land surface, were compared to precipitation, river discharge, and 36 geographic and administrative attributes to identify natural and human controls in areas with shallow groundwater.

  15. Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

    2012-01-01

    Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the

  16. Groundwater Level Changes Due to Extreme Weather—An Evaluation Tool for Sustainable Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade, extreme and exceptional droughts have significantly impacted many economic sectors in the US, especially in California, Oklahoma, and Texas. The record drought of 2011–2014 affected almost 90% of Texas areas and 95% of Oklahoma state areas. In 2011 alone, around $1.6 billion in agricultural production were lost as a result of drought in Oklahoma, and $7.6 billion in Texas. The agricultural sectors in Oklahoma and Texas rely mainly on groundwater resources from the non-replenishable Ogallala Aquifer in Panhandle and other aquifers around the states. The exceptional droughts of 2011–2014 not only caused meteorologically induced water scarcity (due to low precipitation, but also prompted farmers to overuse groundwater to maintain the imperiled production. Comprehensive studies on groundwater levels, and thus the actual water availability/scarcity across all aquifers in Oklahoma and Texas are still limited. Existing studies are mainly focused on a small number of selected sites or aquifers over a short time span of well monitoring, which does not allow for a holistic geospatial and temporal evaluation of groundwater level variations. This paper aims at addressing those issues with the proposed geospatial groundwater visualization model to assess availability of groundwater resources for agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses both in Oklahoma and Texas in the time frame of 2003–2014. The model is an evaluation tool that can be used by decision-makers for designing sustainable water management practices and by teachers and researchers for educational purposes.

  17. Extent, perception and mitigation of damage due to high groundwater levels in the city of Dresden, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, H.; Thieken, A. H.; Grunenberg, H.; Ullrich, K.; Sommer, T.

    2009-07-01

    Flood risk analysis and management plans mostly neglect groundwater flooding, i.e. high groundwater levels. However, rising groundwater may cause considerable damage to buildings and infrastructure. To improve the knowledge about groundwater flooding and support risk management, a survey was undertaken in the city of Dresden (Saxony, Germany), resulting in 605 completed interviews with private households endangered by high groundwater levels. The reported relatively low flood impact and damage of groundwater floods in comparison with mixed floods was reflected by its scarce perception: Hardly anybody thinks about the risk of groundwater flooding. The interviewees thought that public authorities and not themselves, should be mainly responsible for preparedness and emergency response. Up to now, people do not include groundwater risk in their decision processes on self protection. The implementation of precautionary measures does not differ between households with groundwater or with mixed flood experience. However, less households undertake emergency measures when expecting a groundwater flood only. The state of preparedness should be further improved via an intensified risk communication about groundwater flooding by the authorities. Conditions to reach the endangered population are good, since 70% of the interviewed people are willing to inform themselves about groundwater floods. Recommendations for an improved risk communication are given.

  18. Aquifer-Circulating Water Curtain Cultivation System To Recover Groundwater Level And Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Ko, K.; Chon, C.; Oh, S.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater temperature, which generally ranges 14 to 16 degree of Celsius all year long, can be said to be 'constant' compared to the amplitude of daily variation of air temperature or surface water. Water curtain cultivating method utilizes this 'constant' groundwater temperature to warm up the inside of greenhouse during winter night by splash groundwater on the roof of inner greenhouse. The area of water curtain cultivation system have increased up to 107.5 square kilometers as of 2006 since when it is first introduced to South Korea in 1984. Groundwater shortage problem became a great issue in a concentrated water curtain cultivation area because the pumped and splashed groundwater is abandoned to nearby stream and natural recharge rate is reduced by greenhouses. The amount of groundwater use for water curtain cultivation system in South Korea is calculated to be 587 million cubic meters which is 35% of national agricultural use of groundwater. A new water curtain cultivation system coupled with aquifer circulating of the splashed groundwater and greenhouse roof-top rainwater harvesting is developed and applied to field site in Nonsan-si, Chungnam province to minimize groundwater shortage problem and recover groundwater level. The aquifer circulating water curtain cultivation system is consist of a pumping well and a injection well of 80 m deep, groundwater transfer and splashing system, recovery tank and rainwater collecting waterway. The distance between injection and pumping well is 15 m and an observation well is installed in the middle of the wells. To characterize hydrogeological properties of this site, hydraulic test such as pumping tests and tracer tests with dye tracer, thermal tracer and ion tracer. Once the integrated system is constructed in this site, hydraulic head in all the wells and temperature of air, recovery tank and groundwater in all the wells are monitored during the operation for 3months in winter season. Hydraulic test and tracer

  19. Theory and Method for Identifying Well Water Level Anomalies in a Groundwater Overdraft Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Suxin; Zhang Ziguang; Ren Xiaoxia; Wang Xiang

    2007-01-01

    The overexploitation of underground water leads to the continuous drawdown of groundwater levels, change of water quality and dry-up in dynamic water level observation wells. Due to land subsidence, the well pipes uplift and the observation piping systems are damaged. These environmental geology problems can present serious difficulties for the identification of earthquake anomalies by groundwater level observation. Basied on hydrogeological theories and methods, the paper analyzes the relations of the water balance state of aquifers with stressstrain conditions and the water level regime, and then discusses preliminarily the theory and method for identifying well water level anomalies in a groundwater overdraft area. The result shows that we can accurately judge the nature of the anomaly according to the diffusion character of the drawdown funnel in the well area in combination with the aforementioned theory and method and multi-year variation patterns obtained from existing data. The results of the research are helpful for distinguishing the influence of single centralized water pumping from the long-term overdraft of water on the water level, correctly recognizing water level anomalies in the groundwater overdraft area and increasing the level of earthquake analysis and prediction.

  20. Correlation of air temperature above water-air sections with the forecasted low level clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huseynov, N. Sh.; Malikov, B. M.

    2009-04-01

    As a case study approach the development of low clouds forecasting methods in correlation with air temperature transformational variations on the sections "water-air" is surveyed. It was evident, that transformational variations of air temperature mainly depend on peculiarities and value of advective variations of temperature. DT is the differences of initial temperature on section water-air in started area, from contrast temperature of water surface along a trajectory of movement of air masses and from the temperature above water surface in a final point of a trajectory. Main values of transformational variations of air temperature at advection of a cold masses is 0.530C•h, and at advection of warm masses is -0.370C•h. There was dimensionless quantity K determined and implemented into practice which was characterized with difference of water temperature in forecasting point and air temperature in an initial point in the ratio of dew-points deficiency at the forecasting area. It follows, that the appropriate increasing or decreasing of K under conditions of cold and warm air masses advection, contributes decreasing of low clouds level. References: Abramovich K.G.: Conditions of development and forecasting of low level clouds. vol. #78, 124 pp., Hydrometcenter USSR 1973. Abramovich K.G.: Variations of low clouds level // Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. # 5, 30-41, Moscow, 1968. Budiko M.I.: Empirical assessment of climatic changes toward the end of XX century // Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. #12, 5-13, Moscow, 1999. Buykov M.V.: Computational modeling of daily evolutions of boundary layer of atmosphere at the presence of clouds and fog // Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. # 4, 35-44, Moscow, 1981. Huseynov N.Sh. Transformational variations of air temperature above Caspian Sea / Proceedings of Conference On Climate And Protection of Environment, 118-120, Baku, 1999. Huseynov N.Sh.: Consideration of advective and transformational variations of air temperature in

  1. Forecasting state-level premature deaths from alcohol, drugs, and suicides using Google Trends data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Jason; Cuthbertson, Courtney; Loveridge, Scott; Skidmore, Mark; Dyar, Will

    2017-04-15

    Vital statistics on the number of, alcohol-induced death (AICD) drug-induced death (DICD), and suicides at the local-level are only available after a substantial lag of up to two years after the events occur. We (1) investigate how well Google Trends search data explain variation in state-level rates in the US, and (2) use this method to forecast these rates of death for 2015 as official data are not yet available. We tested the degree to which Google Trends data on 27 terms can be fit to CDC data using L1-regularization on AICD, DICD, and suicide. Using Google Trends data, we forecast 2015 AICD, DICD, and suicide rates. L1-regularization fit the pre-2015 data much better than the alternative model using state-level unemployment and income variables. Google Trends data account for substantial variation in growth of state-level rates of death: 30.9% for AICD, 23.9% for DICD, and 21.8% for suicide rates. Every state except Hawaii is forecasted to increase in all three of these rates in 2015. The model predicts state, not local or individual behavior, and is dependent on continued availability of Google Trends data. The method predicts state-level AICD, DICD, and suicide rates better than the alternative model. The study findings suggest that this methodology can be developed into a public health surveillance system for behavioral health-related causes of death. State-level predictions could be used to inform state interventions aimed at reducing AICD, DICD, and suicide. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Effects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics: ecohydrological implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Thieler, E. Robert; Gesch, Dean B.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2014-01-01

    We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater response to island morphology by evaluating changes at three sites. This interdependence can have a profound effect on ecosystem composition in these fragile coastal landscapes under long-term changing climatic conditions.

  3. АSSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF FLIGHT SAFETY LEVEL OF AIRLINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Prozorov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents methods based on probability theory and mathematical statistics for solving a number of basic problems: formation and evaluation of the current flight safety level; forecasting the level of flight safety; ranking the objects (planes, pilots in terms of flight safety; evaluation of the presence (or absence of control actions arising in the context of the organization of corporate safety management system. At the same time as the main source of information are considered forward-looking events received from flight data.

  4. Forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level, a Continuous-Time State-Space Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldrini, Lorenzo

    In this paper we propose a continuous-time, Gaussian, linear, state-space system to model the relation between global mean sea level (GMSL) and the global mean temperature (GMT), with the aim of making long-term projections for the GMSL. We provide a justification for the model specification based......) and the temperature reconstruction from Hansen et al. (2010). We compare the forecasting performance of the proposed specification to the procedures developed in Rahmstorf (2007b) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). Finally, we compute projections for the sea-level rise conditional on the 21st century SRES temperature...

  5. A method to filter out the effect of river stage fluctuation on groundwater level using time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Heesung; Park, Eungyu; Yoon, Pilsun; Lee, Eunhee; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-04-01

    A method to filter out the effect of river stage fluctuations on groundwater level was designed using an artificial neural network-based time series model of groundwater level prediction. The designed method was applied to daily groundwater level data near the Gangjeong-Koryeong Barrage in the Nakdong river, South Korea. First, one-step ahead direct prediction time series models were successfully developed for both cases of before and after the barrage construction using past measurement data of rainfall, river stage, and groundwater level as inputs. The correlation coefficient values between observed and predicted data were over 0.97. Based on the direct prediction models, recursive prediction models for the simulation of groundwater level fluctuations were designed. The effect of river stage fluctuation on groundwater level data was filtered out by setting a constant value for river stage inputs of the recursive time series models. The hybrid water table fluctuation method was employed to estimate the groundwater recharge using the filtered data. The calculated ratios of groundwater recharge to precipitation before and after the barrage construction were 11.0% and 4.3%, respectively. It is expected that the proposed method can be a useful tool for groundwater level prediction and recharge estimation in the riverside area.

  6. Exploratory studies into the prospects for seasonal forecasting of lake levels and outflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sene, Kevin; Tych, Woldek; Beven, Keith

    2017-04-01

    Some of the largest lakes in the world are in Africa and seasonal forecasts of levels and outflows can potentially help with water supply, irrigation and hydropower operations; in particular regarding the risks from floods or droughts. Some factors which increase the prospects for real-time forecasting include the significant time delays between rainfall and outflows resulting from the huge volumes of water stored, and that many studies have shown possible links between regional rainfall and climate indices for the Indian Ocean and elsewhere. On the other hand, on account of the huge areas covered, catchments can span several climate zones and rainfall and flow monitoring networks are often sparse. Exploratory studies into some of these issues are described based on case studies for two large lakes, including some preliminary findings regarding data assimilation and the complexity of models required. The studies were performed using a range of stochastic signal identification tools and are compared with the findings from an ensemble streamflow prediction approach. Preliminary conclusions are then drawn regarding the relevance of these results to the development of operational forecasting models.

  7. Hydrographs showing groundwater levels for selected wells in the Puyallup River watershed and vicinity, Pierce and King Counties, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, R.C.; Julich, R.J.; Justin, G.B.

    2013-01-01

    Hydrographs of groundwater levels for selected wells in and adjacent to the Puyallup River watershed in Pierce and King Counties, Washington, are presented using an interactive Web-based map of the study area to illustrate changes in groundwater levels on a monthly and seasonal basis. The interactive map displays well locations that link to the hydrographs, which in turn link to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System, Groundwater Site Inventory System.

  8. Hydrographs Showing Groundwater Level Changes for Selected Wells in the Chambers-Clover Creek Watershed and Vicinity, Pierce County, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justin, G.B.; Julich, R.; Payne, K.L.

    2009-01-01

    Selected groundwater level hydrographs for the Chambers-Clover Creek watershed (CCCW) and vicinity, Washington, are presented in an interactive web-based map to illustrate changes in groundwater levels in and near the CCCW on a monthly and seasonal basis. Hydrographs are linked to points corresponding to the well location on an interactive map of the study area. Groundwater level data and well information from Federal, State, and local agencies were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS), Groundwater Site Inventory (GWSI) System.

  9. Analysis of 1997–2008 groundwater level changes in the upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater-level monitoring in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon from 1997 to 2008 shows water-level declines in some places that are larger than might be expected from climate variations alone, raising questions regarding the influence of groundwater pumping, canal lining (which decreases recharge), and other human influences. Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, water levels in the central part of the basin near Redmond steadily declined as much as 14 feet. Water levels in the Cascade Range, in contrast, rose more than 20 feet from the mid-1990s to about 2000, and then declined into the mid-2000s, with little or no net change. An existing U.S. Geological Survey regional groundwater-flow model was used to gain insights into groundwater-level changes from 1997 to 2008, and to determine the relative influence of climate, groundwater pumping, and irrigation canal lining on observed water-level trends. To utilize the model, input datasets had to be extended to include post-1997 changes in groundwater pumping, changes in recharge from precipitation, irrigation canal leakage, and deep percolation of applied irrigation water (also known as on-farm loss). Mean annual groundwater recharge from precipitation during the 1999–2008 period was 25 percent less than during the 1979–88 period because of drying climate conditions. This decrease in groundwater recharge is consistent with measured decreases in streamflow and discharge to springs. For example, the mean annual discharge of Fall River, which is a spring-fed stream, decreased 12 percent between the 1979–88 and 1999–2008 periods. Between the mid-1990s and late 2000s, groundwater pumping for public-supply and irrigation uses increased from about 32,500 to 52,000 acre-feet per year, partially because of population growth. Between 1997 and 2008, the rate of recharge from leaking irrigation canals decreased by about 58,000 acre-feet per year as a result of lining and piping of canals. Decreases in recharge

  10. Ground-water levels and directions of flow in Geauga County, Ohio, September 1994, and changes in ground-water levels, 1986-94

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagucki, M.L.; Lesney, L.L.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Geauga County Planning Commission and Board of County Commissioners, to determine directions of ground-water flow and to assess differences from 1986 to 1994 in ground-water levels in the glacial deposits and Pottsville Formation, Cuyahoga Group, and the Berea Sandstone. Water levels were measured in 219 wells in Geauga County, Ohio, in September 1994. Water levels measured in January and February 1986 in 88 of the 219 wells were used for comparison. Water-level maps constructed from measurements made in September 1994 to show that ground-water levels in the Pottsville Formation and the glacial deposits generally correspond to the land-surface configuration and that ground water flows from the uplands to adjacent streams and buried valleys. Ground-water flow in the Cuyahoga Group is generally downward from the Pottsville Formation to the Berea Sandstone. Directions of ground-water flow in the Berea Sandstone are toward outcrop areas at the north and east edges of Geauga County and toward sub-crops beneath buried glacial valley deposits in Chardon, Chester, Munson, and Russel Townships and along the west edge of the county. A comparison of water level measurements in 1986 and 1994 indicates that water levels declined in 70 percent of the measured wells and increased in 30 percent. The change in water levels from 1986 to 1994 ranged from an increase of 13.58 feet to a decrease of 29.25 feet. Thirty percent of all water-level changes were less than 1 foot in magnitude. In nearly 80 percent of the wells, water-level changes were within the range of plus or minus 5 feet. Among the wells for which two or more historical measurements were available, the 1994 water levels in 54 percent were outside the range of water-levels observed in previous studies (only 24 percent were greater than 1 foot outside of the previously-observed range). Water-level declines of greater than 10 feet

  11. Geostatistics-based groundwater-level monitoring network design and its application to the Upper Floridan aquifer, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhat, Shirish; Motz, Louis H; Pathak, Chandra; Kuebler, Laura

    2015-01-01

    A geostatistical method was applied to optimize an existing groundwater-level monitoring network in the Upper Floridan aquifer for the South Florida Water Management District in the southeastern United States. Analyses were performed to determine suitable numbers and locations of monitoring wells that will provide equivalent or better quality groundwater-level data compared to an existing monitoring network. Ambient, unadjusted groundwater heads were expressed as salinity-adjusted heads based on the density of freshwater, well screen elevations, and temperature-dependent saline groundwater density. The optimization of the numbers and locations of monitoring wells is based on a pre-defined groundwater-level prediction error. The newly developed network combines an existing network with the addition of new wells that will result in a spatial distribution of groundwater monitoring wells that better defines the regional potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer in the study area. The network yields groundwater-level predictions that differ significantly from those produced using the existing network. The newly designed network will reduce the mean prediction standard error by 43% compared to the existing network. The adoption of a hexagonal grid network for the South Florida Water Management District is recommended to achieve both a uniform level of information about groundwater levels and the minimum required accuracy. It is customary to install more monitoring wells for observing groundwater levels and groundwater quality as groundwater development progresses. However, budget constraints often force water managers to implement cost-effective monitoring networks. In this regard, this study provides guidelines to water managers concerned with groundwater planning and monitoring.

  12. Factors Influencing the Iterative Accuracy of Ground Water Level in Forecasting the Water Burst of Deep Drawdown Mines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李铎; 杨小荟; 武强; 张志忠

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the influential factors of iteration accuracy when we use iteration to determine the numerical model for predicting water yield of deep drawdown mines and calculating the groundwater level. The relationship among the calculation error of groundwater level, the pumping rate, the limit of iteration convergence error, the calculation time, and the aquifer parameters were discussed by using an ideal model. Finally, the water yield of Dianzi iron mine was predicted using the testified numerical model. It is indicated that the calculation error of groundwater level is related to the limit of iteration convergence error, the calculation time and the aquifer parameters, but not to the pumping rate and the variation of groundwater level.

  13. GROUNDWATER FLOW MODEL CALIBRATION USING WATER LEVEL MEASUREMENTS AT SHORT INTERVALS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groundwater flow models are usually calibrated with respect to water level measurements collected at intervals of several months or even years. Measurements of these kinds are not sensitive to sudden or short stress conditions, such as impact from stormwater drainage flow or flas...

  14. Nonlinear autoregressive neural networks with external inputs for forecasting of typhoon inundation level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Huei-Tau

    2017-08-01

    Accurate inundation level forecasting during typhoon invasion is crucial for organizing response actions such as the evacuation of people from areas that could potentially flood. This paper explores the ability of nonlinear autoregressive neural networks with exogenous inputs (NARX) to predict inundation levels induced by typhoons. Two types of NARX architecture were employed: series-parallel (NARX-S) and parallel (NARX-P). Based on cross-correlation analysis of rainfall and water-level data from historical typhoon records, 10 NARX models (five of each architecture type) were constructed. The forecasting ability of each model was assessed by considering coefficient of efficiency (CE), relative time shift error (RTS), and peak water-level error (PE). The results revealed that high CE performance could be achieved by employing more model input variables. Comparisons of the two types of model demonstrated that the NARX-S models outperformed the NARX-P models in terms of CE and RTS, whereas both performed exceptionally in terms of PE and without significant difference. The NARX-S and NARX-P models with the highest overall performance were identified and their predictions were compared with those of traditional ARX-based models. The NARX-S model outperformed the ARX-based models in all three indexes, whereas the NARX-P model exhibited comparable CE performance and superior RTS and PE performance.

  15. Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco S. de Albuquerque Filho

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

  16. Hydrological forecast of maximal water level in Lepenica river basin and flood control measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milanović Ana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Lepenica river basin territory has became axis of economic and urban development of Šumadija district. However, considering Lepenica River with its tributaries, and their disordered river regime, there is insufficient of water for water supply and irrigation, while on the other hand, this area is suffering big flood and torrent damages (especially Kragujevac basin. The paper presents flood problems in the river basin, maximum water level forecasts, and flood control measures carried out until now. Some of the potential solutions, aiming to achieve the effective flood control, are suggested as well.

  17. THE STUDY OF CHANGES IN ARDABIL PLAIN GROUNDWATER LEVEL USING GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Zare Aghbolagh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater in many parts of the world has led to a sharp drop in groundwater levels. In this study, changes in Ardabil plain groundwater level were studied using geographic information system (GIS. For this purpose, the interpolation table method was used, the intrinsic data as table data of piezo metric wells was used. In order to implement the model, the Majol Geoestatical in geographic information system software was used. The data entered as regions into the geographic information system, and then done for the entire zoning area, due to zoning 8 models, the IDW, GPI, RBF, LPI, KO, KS, KU and EBK in geostatical extension were evaluated. The ordinary kriging method (KO with the lowest RMSE, was determined as the most accurate one, and finally, as the ultimate method for zoning and map providing for the changes in groundwater levels drop of the region. The results of classification showed that the biggest drop of about 40 meters was in the areas close to the southeastern parts of the study region and in other areas, little changes were observed, this rate of the change and decline in some parts of the desert like southern regions is very tangible and specified.

  18. Utilizing an Adaptive Grey Model for Short-Term Time Series Forecasting: A Case Study of Wafer-Level Packaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che-Jung Chang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The wafer-level packaging process is an important technology used in semiconductor manufacturing, and how to effectively control this manufacturing system is thus an important issue for packaging firms. One way to aid in this process is to use a forecasting tool. However, the number of observations collected in the early stages of this process is usually too few to use with traditional forecasting techniques, and thus inaccurate results are obtained. One potential solution to this problem is the use of grey system theory, with its feature of small dataset modeling. This study thus uses the AGM(1,1 grey model to solve the problem of forecasting in the pilot run stage of the packaging process. The experimental results show that the grey approach is an appropriate and effective forecasting tool for use with small datasets and that it can be applied to improve the wafer-level packaging process.

  19. Precipitation; ground-water age; ground-water nitrate concentrations, 1995-2002; and ground-water levels, 2002-03 in Eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Paul J.

    2004-01-01

    wells during 1995, 1997, and (or) 1998. Nitrate concentrations in two wells were larger than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking-water regulation of 10 milligrams per liter in 1998 and in 2001. Ground-water levels were measured during June and July 2002 and during June, July, and August 2003 in 18 monitoring wells. The median change in water level for all 18 wells was a decline of 2.03 feet.

  20. Forecasting the effects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater based on a coupled agroeconomic - hydro(geo)logic model (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendland, F.

    2010-12-01

    developments of agriculture were assessed with regard to both, groundwater quality in 2015 and the regional agricultural income. On average for the whole Weser basin, the reduction of nitrogen surpluses for agricultural areas leads to a decrease of nitrate concentrations in the leachate by about 10 mg NO3/L. In the agricultural intensive used regions much higher reductions in the order of 40 mg NO3/L may be expected. Using the environmental target value for groundwater, i.e. a concentration of 50 mg NO3/L in the leachate as a target for groundwater protection, the model results were used directly to identify those regions where additional agro-environmental reduction measures are required. There, a backward calculation allows the quantification of maximal permissible nitrogen surplus levels, which was used as a reference for the derivation of additional nitrogen reduction measures. It could be shown that a further reduction by ca. 20.000 t N/a (19%) is necessary to reach a nitrate concentration in groundwater of 50 mg/l. The related costs sum up to ca. 75 Mio €/a. The research work was carried out in the framework of the AGRUM Weser project which was funded on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer protection (BMELV) and the River Basin Commission Weser (FGG).

  1. Screening-Level Risk Assessment for Styrene-Acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer Detected in Soil and Groundwater

    OpenAIRE

    Kirman, C. R.; Gargas, M L; Collins, J. J.; Rowlands, J. C.

    2012-01-01

    A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluate...

  2. Application of Artificial Neural Network into the Water Level Modeling and Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzenna Sztobryn

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The dangerous sea and river water level increase does not only destroy the human lives, but also generate the severe flooding in coastal areas. The rapidly changes in the direction and velocity of wind and associated with them sea level changes could be the severe threat for navigation, especially on the fairways of small fishery harbors located in the river mouth. There is the area of activity of two external forcing: storm surges and flood wave. The aim of the work was the description of an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN methodology into the water level forecast in the case study field in Swibno harbor located is located at 938.7 km of the Wisla River and at a distance of about 3 km up the mouth (Gulf of Gdansk - Baltic Sea.

  3. Statistical analysis of interaction between lake seepage rates and groundwater and lake levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ala-aho, P.; Rossi, P. M.; Klöve, B.

    2012-04-01

    In Finland, the main sources of groundwater are the esker deposits from the last ice age. Small lakes imbedded in the aquifer with no outlets or inlets are typically found in eskers. Some lakes at Rokua esker, in Northern Finland, have been suffering from changes in water stage and quality. A possible permanent decline of water level has raised considerable concern as the area is also used for recreation and tourism. Rare biotypes supported by the oligotrophic lakes can also be endangered by the level decline. Drainage of peatlands located in the discharge zone of the aquifer is a possible threat for the lakes and the whole aquifer. Drainage can potentially lower the aquifer water table which can have an effect on the groundwater-lake interaction. The aim of this study was to understand in more detail the interaction of the aquifer and the lake systems so potential causes for the lake level variations could be better understood and managed. In-depth understanding of hydrogeological system provides foundation to study the nutrient input to lakes affecting lake ecosystems. A small lake imbedded the Rokua esker aquifer was studied in detail. Direct measurements of seepage rate between the lake and the aquifer were carried out using seepage meters. Seepage was measured from six locations for eight times during May 2010 - November 2010. Precipitation was recorded with a tipping bucket rain gauge adjacent to the lake. Lake stage and groundwater levels from three piezometers were registered on an hourly interval using pressure probes. Statistical methods were applied to examine relationship between seepage measurements and levels of lake and groundwater and amount of precipitation. Distinct areas of inseepage and outseepage of the lake were distinguished with seepage meter measurements. Seepage rates showed only little variation within individual measurement locations. Nevertheless analysis revealed statistically significant correlation of seepage rate variation in four

  4. Groundwater level and nitrate concentration trends on Mountain Home Air Force Base, southwestern Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Marshall L.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain Home Air Force Base in southwestern Idaho draws most of its drinking water from the regional aquifer. The base is located within the State of Idaho's Mountain Home Groundwater Management Area and is adjacent to the State's Cinder Cone Butte Critical Groundwater Area. Both areas were established by the Idaho Department of Water Resources in the early 1980s because of declining water levels in the regional aquifer. The base also is listed by the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality as a nitrate priority area. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, began monitoring wells on the base in 1985, and currently monitors 25 wells for water levels and 17 wells for water quality, primarily nutrients. This report provides a summary of water-level and nitrate concentration data collected primarily between 2001 and 2013 and examines trends in those data. A Regional Kendall Test was run to combine results from all wells to determine an overall regional trend in water level. Groundwater levels declined at an average rate of about 1.08 feet per year. Nitrate concentration trends show that 3 wells (18 percent) are increasing in nitrate concentration trend, 3 wells (18 percent) show a decreasing nitrate concentration trend, and 11 wells (64 percent) show no nitrate concentration trend. Six wells (35 percent) currently exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant limit of 10 milligrams per liter for nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate, measured as nitrogen).

  5. Atoll groundwater movement and its response to climatic and sea-level fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Ferdinand; Swarzenski, Peter; Storlazzi, Curt

    2017-01-01

    Groundwater resources of low-lying atoll islands are threatened due to short-term and long-term changes in rainfall, wave climate, and sea level. A better understanding of how these forcings affect the limited groundwater resources was explored on Roi-Namur in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. As part of a 16-month study, a rarely recorded island-overwash event occurred and the island’s aquifer’s response was measured. The findings suggest that small-scale overwash events cause an increase in salinity of the freshwater lens that returns to pre-overwash conditions within one month. The overwash event is addressed in the context of climate-related local sea-level change, which suggests that overwash events and associated degradations in freshwater resources are likely to increase in severity in the future due to projected rises in sea level. Other forcings, such as severe rainfall events, were shown to have caused a sudden freshening of the aquifer, with salinity levels retuning to pre-rainfall levels within three months. Tidal forcing of the freshwater lens was observed in electrical resistivity profiles, high-resolution conductivity, groundwater-level well measurements and through submarine groundwater discharge calculations. Depth-specific geochemical pore water measurements further assessed and confirmed the distinct boundaries between fresh and saline water masses in the aquifer. The identification of the freshwater lens’ saline boundaries is essential for a quantitative evaluation of the aquifers freshwater resources and help understand how these resources may be impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities.

  6. Groundwater geochemistry near the storage sites of low-level radioactive waste: Implications for uranium migration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaskova, Olga L.; Boguslavsky, Anatoly E. [Institute of Geology and Mineralogy SB RAS, Ac. Koptyug prosp. 3, Novosibirsk 630090 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents results of detailed sampling of groundwater and surface water near the storage sites of radioactive waste from the Electrochemical Plant ECP (Zelenogorsk, Krasnoyarsk region, Russia) and the Angarsk Electrolysis Chemical Complex AEC (Angarsk, Irkutsk region, Russia), both of which have produced enriched uranium since 1960's. The liquid (LRW) and solid (SRW) radioactive wastes belong to the category of low-level activity waste. The main result is that the uranium is below the recommended MPC for drinking waters in all types of groundwater around the sludge of ECP and AEC. But alkaline nitrate solutions have been penetrating and spreading into the aquifers under the LRW sludge pits. According to our calculations, redox conditions in the groundwater influenced by discharge are controlled by the couple NO{sub 3}{sup -}/NO{sub 2}{sup -} that facilitates U(VI) migration. The groundwater under SRW repositories is distinguished by its low mineralization and neutral pH. Co-contaminants, such as Mo, V, and Zr may serve as markers of techno-genous contamination in storage sites of the LRW sludge. (authors)

  7. Climate change impact on groundwater levels in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, D. D.; Wendland, E.

    2013-12-01

    The unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries might cause water availability restrictions in the future. Such issue is likely to worsen due to predicted climate changes for the incoming decades. As numerous studies suggest, aquifers recharge rates will be affected as a result of climate change. The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is one of the most important transboundary aquifer in the world, providing drinkable water for millions of people in four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). Considering the GAS relevance and how its recharge rates might be altered by climatic conditions anomalies, the objective of this work is to assess possible climate changes impacts on groundwater levels in this aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models' (GCM) outputs were used as inputs in a transient flux groundwater model created using the software SPA (Simulation of Process in Aquifers), enabling groundwater table fluctuation to be evaluated under distinct climatic scenarios. Six monitoring wells, located in a representative basin (Ribeirão da Onça basin) inside a GAS outcrop zone (ROB), provided water table measurements between 2004 and 2011 to calibrate the groundwater model. Using observed climatic data, a water budget method was applied to estimate recharge in different types of land uses. Statistically downscaled future climate scenarios were used as inputs for that same recharge model, which provided data for running SPA under those scenarios. The results show that most of the GCMs used here predict temperature arises over 275,15 K and major monthly rainfall mean changes to take place in the dry season. During wet seasons, those means might experience around 50% decrease. The transient model results indicate that water table variations, derived from around 70% of the climate scenarios, would vary below those measured between 2004 and 2011. Among the thirteen GCMs considered in this work, only four of them predicted more extreme

  8. Forecasting Method for Urban Rail Transit Ridership at Station Level Using Back Propagation Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfang Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Direct forecasting method for Urban Rail Transit (URT ridership at the station level is not able to reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors. Also, population is inappropriately expressed in this method since it is not uniformly distributed by area. In this paper, a new variable, population per distance band, is considered and a back propagation neural network (BPNN model which can reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors is proposed to forecast ridership. Key predictors are obtained through partial correlation analysis. The performance of the proposed model is compared with three other benchmark models, which are linear model with population per distance band, BPNN model with total population, and linear model with total population, using four measures of effectiveness (MOEs, maximum relative error (MRE, smallest relative error (SRE, average relative error (ARE, and mean square root of relative error (MSRRE. Also, another model for contribution rate of population per distance band to ridership is formulated based on the BPNN model with nonpopulation variables fixed. Case studies with Japanese data show that BPNN model with population per distance band outperforms other three models and the contribution rate of population within special distance band to ridership calculated through the contribution rate model is 70%~92.9% close to actual statistical value. The result confirms the effectiveness of models proposed in this paper.

  9. A Comparison of Groundwater Storage Using GRACE Data, Groundwater Levels, and a Hydrological Model in Californias Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuss, Amber; Brandt, William; Randall, Joshua; Floyd, Bridget; Bourai, Abdelwahab; Newcomer, Michelle; Skiles, Joseph; Schmidt, Cindy

    2011-01-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measures changes in total water storage (TWS) remotely, and may provide additional insight to the use of well-based data in California's agriculturally productive Central Valley region. Under current California law, well owners are not required to report groundwater extraction rates, making estimation of total groundwater extraction difficult. As a result, other groundwater change detection techniques may prove useful. From October 2002 to September 2009, GRACE was used to map changes in TWS for the three hydrological regions (the Sacramento River Basin, the San Joaquin River Basin, and the Tulare Lake Basin) encompassing the Central Valley aquifer. Net groundwater storage changes were calculated from the changes in TWS for each of the three hydrological regions and by incorporating estimates for additional components of the hydrological budget including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow pack, and surface water storage. The calculated changes in groundwater storage were then compared to simulated values from the California Department of Water Resource's Central Valley Groundwater- Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and their Water Data Library (WDL) Geographic Information System (GIS) change in storage tool. The results from the three methods were compared. Downscaling GRACE data into the 21 smaller Central Valley sub-regions included in C2VSIM was also evaluated. This work has the potential to improve California's groundwater resource management and use of existing hydrological models for the Central Valley.

  10. 基于模糊神经算法的区域地下水盐分动态预测%Regional groundwater salinity dynamics forecasting based on neuro-fuzzy algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余世鹏; 杨劲松; 刘广明; 姚荣江; 王相平

    2014-01-01

    为探讨前馈型人工神经网络BP-ANN(back propagation artificial neural network)和模糊神经NF (neuro-fuzzy)2种神经网络算法在区域地下水盐分动态预测中的应用过程与效果,首先通过经典统计分析确定区域地下水盐分动态的主要驱动因子以及可用的模型输入因子组合,采用“试错法”确定神经网络模型的最优结构,进而开展地下水盐分中长期动态的有效模拟预测。结果表明,在长江河口寅阳和大兴地区以降水动态为单输入的NF(5-gbellmf-160)和以降水与内河水盐分动态为双输入的NF(4-gaussmf-100)为最优预测模型。研究表明神经网络模型对地下水盐分动态的预测精度优于常规线性模型,其中,NF、BP-ANN、线性模型在寅阳测点的预测相关系数分别为0.565、0.445、0.261,在大兴测点的预测相关系数分别为0.886、0.784、0.543。与BP-ANN、线性模型相比,基于模糊神经算法的 NF 模型具有更好的误差纠错和仿真能力,在寅阳和大兴测点的预测误差分别降低了30%以上和50%以上。相关研究结果在区域水盐动态科学预警研究领域有较好地应用前景。%The study conducted a detailed analysis of the modeling processes and performances of 2 types of different neural network models including back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and neuro-fuzzy (NF), in the groundwater salinity dynamics forecasting. Firstly, the classical statistical analysis was used to determine the dominant driving factors of groundwater salinity dynamics and to reveal the available model inputs combinations. Then, the optimal neural network model structures were determined by the trial-and-error method and used to effectively forecast the mid-long term groundwater salinity dynamics. By our research, the idea of necessity in selecting the optimal NF model parameters of transfer functions, rule numbers and iteration steps was innovatively

  11. Effects on the groundwater levels of the May-June 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Marcaccio

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A variety of phenomena were observed in the groundwaters in concomitance with the May-June 2012 seismic sequence that occurred in the Emilia Romagna area. In particular, phreatic wells close to the epicentral area were affected by a sudden increase in water level of up to 4 m. In some cases, the sands of aquifers were ejected outside wells, and >700 liquefaction phenomena were recorded [Bertolini and Fioroni 2012, this volume]. Some automatic stations of the regional well network recorded variations in well levels. These data can be considered useful to understand the relationships between seismic events and the local groundwaters [see also Italiano et al. 2012, this volume]. […] In 1976, a regional network composed of 330 wells was set up with the purpose of monitoring the groundwater levels using manual techniques. These data have been used for environmental purposes and for water management. In recent years, the monitoring network managed by Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione e Ambiente (ARPA has increased the number of wells (to about 600, and chemical analyses are also periodically carried out for environmental monitoring activities. In the past three years, an automatic monitoring network composed of 40 stations was set up and this has allowed the monitoring of the water levels and the temperatures, at a rate of one measure per hour, and to broadcast the data to the host center located in Bologna. […

  12. Recent trends in groundwater levels in a highly seasonal hydrological system: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shamsudduha

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater levels in shallow aquifers underlying Asian mega-deltas are characterized by strong seasonal variations associated with monsoon rainfall. To resolve trend and seasonal components in weekly groundwater levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM Delta, we apply a nonparametric seasonal-trend decomposition procedure (STL to observations compiled from 1985–2005 in Bangladesh. Seasonality dominates observed variance in groundwater levels but declining groundwater levels (>1 m/yr are detected in urban and peri-urban areas around Dhaka as well as in north-central, northwestern, and southwestern parts of the country (0.1–0.5 m/yr where intensive abstraction of groundwater is conducted for dry-season rice cultivation. Rising groundwater levels (0.5–2.5 cm/yr are observed in the estuarine and southern coastal regions. This novel application of the STL procedure reveals, for the first time, the unsustainability of irrigation supplied by shallow aquifers in some areas (e.g., High Barind Tract of the GBM Delta and the hydrological impact of potential seawater intrusion of coastal aquifers associated with sea-level rise. Our findings provide important insight into the hydrological impacts of groundwater-fed irrigation and sea-level rise in other Asian mega-deltas where monitoring data are limited.

  13. Recent trends in groundwater levels in a highly seasonal hydrological system: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shamsudduha

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater levels in shallow aquifers underlying Asian mega-deltas are characterized by strong seasonal variations associated with monsoon rainfall. To resolve trend and seasonal components in weekly groundwater levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM Delta, we apply a nonparametric seasonal-trend decomposition procedure (STL to observations compiled from 1985 to 2005 in Bangladesh. Seasonality dominates observed variance in groundwater levels but declining groundwater levels (>1 m/yr are detected in urban and peri-urban areas around Dhaka as well as in north-central, northwestern, and southwestern parts of the country (0.1 to 0.5 m/yr where intensive abstraction of groundwater is conducted for dry-season rice cultivation. Rising groundwater levels (0.5 to 2.5 cm/yr are observed in the estuarine and southern coastal regions. This novel application of the STL procedure reveals, for the first time, the unsustainability of irrigation supplied by shallow aquifers in some areas of the GBM Delta and the hydrological impact of seawater intrusion of coastal aquifers associated with sea-level rise. Our findings provide important insight into the hydrological impacts of groundwater-fed irrigation and sea-level rise in other Asian mega-deltas where monitoring data are limited.

  14. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of groundwater levels of alluvial aquifers in different settings using drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Johannes Christoph; Birk, Steffen

    2017-05-01

    To improve the understanding of how aquifers in different alluvial settings respond to extreme events in a changing environment, we analyze standardized time series of groundwater levels (Standardized Groundwater level Index - SGI), precipitation (Standardized Precipitation Index - SPI), and river stages of three subregions within the catchment of the river Mur (Austria). Using correlation matrices, differences and similarities between the subregions, ranging from the Alpine upstream part of the catchment to its shallow foreland basin, are identified and visualized. Generally, river stages exhibit the highest correlations with groundwater levels, frequently affecting not only the wells closest to the river, but also more distant parts of the alluvial aquifer. As a result, human impacts on the river are transferred to the aquifer, thus affecting the behavior of groundwater levels. Hence, to avoid misinterpretation of groundwater levels in this type of setting, it is important to account for the river and human impacts on it. While the river is a controlling factor in all of the subregions, an influence of precipitation is evident too. Except for deep wells found in an upstream Alpine basin, groundwater levels show the highest correlation with a precipitation accumulation period of 6 months (SPI6). The correlation in the foreland is generally higher than that in the Alpine subregions, thus corresponding to a trend from deeper wells in the Alpine parts of the catchment towards more shallow wells in the foreland. Extreme events are found to affect the aquifer in different ways. As shown with the well-known European 2003 drought and the local 2009 floods, correlations are reduced under flood conditions, but increased under drought. Thus, precipitation, groundwater levels and river stages tend to exhibit uniform behavior under drought conditions, whereas they may show irregular behavior during floods. Similarly, correlations are found to be weaker in years with little

  15. Potential effects of existing and proposed groundwater withdrawals on water levels and natural groundwater discharge in Snake Valley and surrounding areas, Utah and Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masbruch, Melissa D.; Brooks, Lynette E.

    2017-04-14

    discharge, to future stresses at a point in the area represented by the model. In this way, these maps can be used as a tool to determine the source of water to, and potential effects at specific areas from, future well withdrawals.Downward trends in water levels measured in wells indicate that existing groundwater withdrawals in Snake Valley are affecting water levels. The numerical model simulates similar downward trends in water levels; simulated drawdowns in the model, however, are generally less than observed water-level declines. At the groundwater discharge sites of interest to the DOI agencies, simulated drawdowns from existing well withdrawals (projected into the future) range from 0 to about 50 feet. Following the addition of the proposed withdrawals, simulated drawdowns at some sites increase by 25 feet. Simulated drawdown resulting from the proposed withdrawals began in as few as 5 years after 2014 at several of the sites. At the groundwater discharge sites of interest to the DOI agencies, simulated capture of natural discharge resulting from the existing withdrawals ranged from 0 to 87 percent. Following the addition of the proposed withdrawals, simulated capture at several of the sites reached 100 percent, indicating that groundwater discharge at that site would cease. Simulated capture following the addition of the proposed withdrawals increased in as few as 5 years after 2014 at several of the sites.

  16. Comparison of forecasts of mean monthly water level in the Paraguay River, Brazil, from two fractionally differenced models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prass, Taiane S.; Bravo, Juan Martin; Clarke, Robin T.; Collischonn, Walter; Lopes, SíLvia R. C.

    2012-05-01

    The paper compares forecasts of mean monthly water levels up to six months ahead at Ladário, on the Upper Paraguay River, Brazil, estimated from two long-range dependence models. In one of them, the marked seasonal cycle was removed and a fractionally differenced model was fitted to the transformed series. In the other, a seasonal fractionally differenced model was fitted to water levels without transformation. Forecasts from both models for periods up to six months ahead were compared with forecasts given by simpler "short-range dependence" Box-Jenkins models, one fitted to the transformed series, the other a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Estimates of parameters in the four models (two "long-range dependence", two "short-range dependence") were updated at six-monthly intervals over a 20 year period, and forecasts were compared using root mean square errors (rmse) between water-level forecasts and observed levels. As judged by rmse, performances of the two long-range dependence models, and of the ARMA (1,1) short-range dependence model, were very similar; all three out-performed the seasonal short-range dependence ARMA model. There was evidence that all models performed better during recession periods, than on the hydrograph rising limb.

  17. Analysis of the applicability of geophysical methods and computer modelling in determining groundwater level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaja, Klaudia; Matula, Rafal

    2014-05-01

    The paper presents analysis of the possibilities of application geophysical methods to investigation groundwater conditions. In this paper groundwater is defined as liquid water flowing through shallow aquifers. Groundwater conditions are described through the distribution of permeable layers (like sand, gravel, fractured rock) and impermeable or low-permeable layers (like clay, till, solid rock) in the subsurface. GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar), ERT(Electrical Resistivity Tomography), VES (Vertical Electric Soundings) and seismic reflection, refraction and MASW (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves) belong to non - invasive, surface, geophysical methods. Due to differences in physical parameters like dielectric constant, resistivity, density and elastic properties for saturated and saturated zones it is possible to use geophysical techniques for groundwater investigations. Few programmes for GPR, ERT, VES and seismic modelling were applied in order to verify and compare results. Models differ in values of physical parameters such as dielectric constant, electrical conductivity, P and S-wave velocity and the density, layers thickness and the depth of occurrence of the groundwater level. Obtained results for computer modelling for GPR and seismic methods and interpretation of test field measurements are presented. In all of this methods vertical resolution is the most important issue in groundwater investigations. This require proper measurement methodology e.g. antennas with frequencies high enough, Wenner array in electrical surveys, proper geometry for seismic studies. Seismic velocities of unconsolidated rocks like sand and gravel are strongly influenced by porosity and water saturation. No influence of water saturation degree on seismic velocities is observed below a value of about 90% water saturation. A further saturation increase leads to a strong increase of P-wave velocity and a slight decrease of S-wave velocity. But in case of few models only the

  18. Influence of seasonal variations in sea level on the salinity regime of a coastal groundwater-fed wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Cameron; Harrington, Glenn A

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal variations in sea level are often neglected in studies of coastal aquifers; however, they may have important controls on processes such as submarine groundwater discharge, sea water intrusion, and groundwater discharge to coastal springs and wetlands. We investigated seasonal variations in salinity in a groundwater-fed coastal wetland (the RAMSAR listed Piccaninnie Ponds in South Australia) and found that salinity peaked during winter, coincident with seasonal sea level peaks. Closer examination of salinity variations revealed a relationship between changes in sea level and changes in salinity, indicating that sea level-driven movement of the fresh water-sea water interface influences the salinity of discharging groundwater in the wetland. Moreover, the seasonal control of sea level on wetland salinity seems to override the influence of seasonal recharge. A two-dimensional variable density model helped validate this conceptual model of coastal groundwater discharge by showing that fluctuations in groundwater salinity in a coastal aquifer can be driven by a seasonal coastal boundary condition in spite of seasonal recharge/discharge dynamics. Because seasonal variations in sea level and coastal wetlands are ubiquitous throughout the world, these findings have important implications for monitoring and management of coastal groundwater-dependent ecosystems.

  19. Water level observations from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for improving probabilistic estimations of interaction between rivers and groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandini, Filippo; Butts, Michael; Vammen Jacobsen, Torsten; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2016-04-01

    efficient global Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in high-dimensional spaces. Calibration against water level has demonstrated a significant improvement of the estimation of the exchange flow between groundwater and river branch. Groundwater flux and direction are now better simulated. Reliability and sharpness of the probabilistic forecasts are assessed with the sharpness, the interval skill score (ISS) of the 95{%} confidence interval, and with the root mean square error (RMSE) of the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP). The binary outcome (either gaining or loosing stream) of the flow direction is assessed with Brier score (BS). After water level calibration the sharpness of the estimations is approximately doubled with respect to the model calibrated only against discharge, ISS has improved from 2.4-7to 7.8-8 m^3/s\\cdot m, RMSE from 9.2-8 to 2.4-8 m^3/s\\cdot m^and BS is halved from 0.58 to 0.25.

  20. Numerical Simulation of Changes in Groundwater-Level Induced by Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ching-Yi; Chia, Yeeping; Zheng, Ding-Qian

    2016-04-01

    Changes in groundwater level induced by earthquakes have been recorded worldwide. Sustained groundwater-level changes during earthquakes, primarily induced by the co-seismic strain due to fault displacement, are often observed in the confined aquifer. In the unconfined aquifer, sustained co-seismic changes can hardly be observed due to the rapid recovery of pore pressure change. In this study, field observation of co-seismic groundwater-level changes are showed. Also, the finite element software ABAQUS is used to simulate two-dimensional time-dependent pore pressure change in the aquifer due to fault displacement during earthquakes. Different physical properties are used to represent different types of aquifer. We adopted the 3-step method to simulate how earthquakes affect pore pressure in the 3 models, unconfined aquifer, confined aquifer and over-pressured confined layers. Results from the simulation gives us more details of how co-seismic and post-seismic pore pressure temporal changes are processed in different aquifers.

  1. Nitrogen and Oxygen Isotopes of Low-Level Nitrate in Groundwater For Environmental Forensics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.

    2009-05-01

    Sources of nitrate in water from human activities include fertilizers, animal feedlots, septic systems, wastewater treatment lagoons, animal wastes, industrial wastes and food processing wastes. Nitrogen and Oxygen isotopic analysis of nitrate in groundwater is essential to source identification and environmental forensics as nitrate from different sources carry distinctly different N and O isotopic compositions. Nitrate is extracted from groundwater samples and converted into AgNO3 using ion exchange techniques. The purified AgNO3 is then broken down into N2 and CO for N and O isotopic measurement. Since nitrate concentrations in natural ground waters are usually less than 2 mg/L, however, such method has been limited by minimum sample size it requires, in liters, which is highly nitrate concentration dependent. Here we report a TurboVap- Denitrifier method for N and O isotopic measurement of low-level dissolved nitrate, based on sample evaporation and isotopic analysis of nitrous oxide generated from nitrate by denitrifying bacteria that lack N2O- reductase activity. For most groundwater samples with mg/L-level of nitrate direct injection of water samples in mLs is applied. The volume of sample is adjusted according to its nitrate concentration to achieve a final sample size optimal for the system. For water samples with ug/L-level of nitrate, nitrate is highly concentrated using a TurboVap evaporator, followed by isotopic measurement with Denitrifier method. Benefits of TurboVap- Denitrifier method include high sensitivity and better precision in both isotopic data. This method applies to both freshwater and seawater. The analyses of isotopic reference materials in nitrate-free de-ionized water and seawater are included as method controls to correct for any blank effects. The isotopic data from groundwater and ocean profiles demonstrate the consistency of the data produced by the TurboVap-Denitrifier method.

  2. Supporting inland waterway transport on German waterways by operational forecasting services - water-levels, discharges, river ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meißner, Dennis; Klein, Bastian; Ionita, Monica; Hemri, Stephan; Rademacher, Silke

    2017-04-01

    Inland waterway transport (IWT) is an important commercial sector significantly vulnerable to hydrological impacts. River ice and floods limit the availability of the waterway network and may cause considerable damages to waterway infrastructure. Low flows significantly affect IWT's operation efficiency usually several months a year due to the close correlation of (low) water levels / water depths and (high) transport costs. Therefore "navigation-related" hydrological forecasts focussing on the specific requirements of water-bound transport (relevant forecast locations, target parameters, skill characteristics etc.) play a major role in order to mitigate IWT's vulnerability to hydro-meteorological impacts. In light of continuing transport growth within the European Union, hydrological forecasts for the waterways are essential to stimulate the use of the free capacity IWT still offers more consequently. An overview of the current operational and pre-operational forecasting systems for the German waterways predicting water levels, discharges and river ice thickness on various time-scales will be presented. While short-term (deterministic) forecasts have a long tradition in navigation-related forecasting, (probabilistic) forecasting services offering extended lead-times are not yet well-established and are still subject to current research and development activities (e.g. within the EU-projects EUPORIAS and IMPREX). The focus is on improving technical aspects as well as on exploring adequate ways of disseminating and communicating probabilistic forecast information. For the German stretch of the River Rhine, one of the most frequented inland waterways worldwide, the existing deterministic forecast scheme has been extended by ensemble forecasts combined with statistical post-processing modules applying EMOS (Ensemble Model Output Statistics) and ECC (Ensemble Copula Coupling) in order to generate water level predictions up to 10 days and to estimate its predictive

  3. Site Level Climate Downscaling for Forecasting Water Balance Stress and Reslience of Acadian Boreal Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. G.; Serbin, S.

    2014-12-01

    A downscaling framework is presented and applied to physiological and climatic data for projecting future climate resilience of one key boreal tree species, black spruce, in Cape Breton Highlands, Nova Scotia. The technique is based on a combination of probabilistic downscaling methods and control system theory, which together are used to transform large-scale future climate input (air temperature, humidity) to local scale climate parameters important to plant biophysical processes (vapor pressure deficit). Large-scale forecast data from the Community Earth System Model were downscaled spatially then temporally based on the cumulative distributions and sub-daily patterns from corresponding observational data at North Mountain (Cape Breton). Validation over historical decades shows that this technique provides hourly temperature and vapor pressure deficit data accurate to within 0.7%. Further we applied these environmental factors to a species specific empirical model of stomatal conductance for black spruce to compare differences in predicted water regulation response when large-scale (ESM) data are used as drivers versus localized data transformed using this new site-level downscaling technique. We observe through this synthetic study that over historical to contemporary periods (1850-2006) differences between large-scale and localized forecasts of stomatal conductance were small but that future climate extremes (2006-2100) have a strong effect on derived water balance in black spruce. These results also suggest that black spruce in the Cape Breton Highlands may have biophysical responses to climate change that are not predicted by spatially coarse (1°) data, which does not include site level extremes that in this study are shown to strongly curb future growth rates in black spruce as present day climate extremes become common place.

  4. Comparison of stochastic and deterministic methods for mapping groundwater level spatial variability in sparsely monitored basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varouchakis, Epsilon A; Hristopulos, D T

    2013-01-01

    In sparsely monitored basins, accurate mapping of the spatial variability of groundwater level requires the interpolation of scattered data. This paper presents a comparison of deterministic interpolation methods, i.e. inverse distance weight (IDW) and minimum curvature (MC), with stochastic methods, i.e. ordinary kriging (OK), universal kriging (UK) and kriging with Delaunay triangulation (DK). The study area is the Mires Basin of Mesara Valley in Crete (Greece). This sparsely sampled basin has limited groundwater resources which are vital for the island's economy; spatial variations of the groundwater level are important for developing management and monitoring strategies. We evaluate the performance of the interpolation methods with respect to different statistical measures. The Spartan variogram family is applied for the first time to hydrological data and is shown to be optimal with respect to stochastic interpolation of this dataset. The three stochastic methods (OK, DK and UK) perform overall better than the deterministic counterparts (IDW and MC). DK, which is herein for the first time applied to hydrological data, yields the most accurate cross-validation estimate for the lowest value in the dataset. OK and UK lead to smooth isolevel contours, whilst DK and IDW generate more edges. The stochastic methods deliver estimates of prediction uncertainty which becomes highest near the southeastern border of the basin.

  5. COVARIANCE CORRECTION FOR ESTIMATING GROUNDWATER LEVEL USING DETERMINISTIC ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Behmanesh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main problem in developing a groundwater model is to determine model parameters, particularly hydrogeologic coefficients, in a precise way. In this research, Deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter (DEnKF is described as a modern sequential method for data assimilation and a localization scheme within the framework of DEnKF is applied. Najafabad aquifer (in Iran with area of 1150 km2, is modeled in the time window of Oct. 2000 to Sept. 2007 to obtain water table level data when its values of hydrogeologic coefficients calibrated and verified. DEnKF assimilated 45 observations of true run into the model with 2, 5, and 10 times of calibrated values of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield. This filter has been run both with and without use of localization. Results show easily-implemented localized DEnKF is favorably robust in groundwater flow modeling.

  6. Rational allocation of water resources based on ecological groundwater levels:a case study in Jinghui Irrigation District in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H.; Zhou, W. B.; Dong, Q. G.; Liu, B. Y.; Ma, C.

    2016-08-01

    Aimed at the hydrogeological environmental problems caused by over-exploitation and unreasonable utilization of water resources in Jinghui Irrigation District, this paper discusses the ecological groundwater level of the study area and establishes a three-layer optimal allocation model of water resources based on the theory of large scale systems. Then, the genetic algorithm method was employed to optimize the model and obtain the optimal allocation of crop irrigation schedule and water resources under the condition of a 75% assurance rate. Finally, the numerical simulation model of the groundwater was applied to analyze the balance of the groundwater on the basis of the optimal allocation scheme. The results show that the upper limitation of the ecological groundwater in Jinghui Irrigation District ranged from 1.8m to 4.2m, while the lower limitation level ranged from 8m to 28m. By 2020, the condition of the groundwater imbalance that results from adopting the optimal allocation scheme will be much better than that caused by current water utilization scheme. With the exception of only a few areas, the groundwater level in most parts of Jinghui Irrigation District will not exceed the lower limitation of ecological groundwater level.

  7. Global and regional aspects for genesis of catastrophic floods - the problems of forecasting and estimates for mass and water balance (surface and groundwater contribution)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Arakelian, Sergei; Trifonov, Dmitriy; Abrakhin, Sergei

    2017-04-01

    these above events, for the 2013 Colorado flood (USA) ). 5. Thus, we believe that now is the time to have the transition from «surface view» - i.e. observable results by eye-witness and consequences of the water events, to «fundamental approach» - i.e. measured physical parameters during the continuous monitoring and possible mechanisms of their variation. References 1. Trifonova T.A., Akimov V.A., Abrakhin S.I., Arakelian S.M., Prokoshev V.G. Basic principles of modeling and forecasting of extreme natural and man-made disasters. Monograph, Russian Emercom Publ., 2014, - 436 p., Moscow. 2. Trifonova T., Trifonov D., Arakelian S. The 2015 disastrous floods in Assam, India, and Louisiana, USA: water balance estimation. Hydrology 2016, 3(4), 41; doi:10.3390/hydrology3040041. 3. Madeline B. Cotkowitz, John W. Attig, Thomas McDermott. Groundwater flood a river terrace in southwest Wisconsin, USA. Hydrogeology Journal. 2014. DOI 10.1007/s10040-014-1129-x.

  8. Comparison of different methods to assess natural backgrond levels in groundwater bodies in southern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preziosi, Elisabetta; Parrone, Daniele; Ghergo, Stefano; Ducci, Daniela; Sellerino, Mariangela; Condesso de Melo, Maria Teresa; Oliveira, Juana; Ribeiro, Luis

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of the natural background levels (NBLs) of a substance or element is important to distinguish anthropogenic pollution from contamination of natural origin in groundwater bodies. NBLs are the result of different atmospheric, geological, chemical and biological interaction processes during groundwater infiltration and circulation. Rainfall composition, water-rock interactions in both vadose and saturated zone, exchanges with other water bodies and residence time also contribute to determine the groundwater natural composition. Nowadays there are different methods to assess NBLs but the main concern is that they may provide different results. In the European legislative context, the Groundwater Directive (2006/118/EC) requests to EU Member States to derive appropriate threshold values (TV) for several potentially harmful substances, taking into account NBLs when necessary, in order to assess the chemical status of groundwater bodies. In the framework of a common project between Italy (CNR) and Portugal (FCT), several groundwater bodies were taken into account in different regions of Italy (Latium and Campania) and Portugal. The general objective is the definition of a sound comprehensive methodology for NBL assessment at groundwater body scale, suitable to different hydrogeological settings through comparing diverse case studies and different approaches. The Italian case studies are located in volcanic or volcano-sedimentary geological contexts, where high concentrations of substances such as As, F, Fe, Mn among others in groundwater are well known. The Portuguese case studies are located in carbonate and porous media aquifers. Several data sets were explored with the use of statistical as well as mathematical procedures in order to determine a threshold between natural and anthropogenic concentration. Today essentially two groups of methods are proposed, the first ascribed to the probability plots (PP method), the second based on the selection of the

  9. Efficient Calibration of Computationally Intensive Groundwater Models through Surrogate Modelling with Lower Levels of Fidelity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, S.; Anderson, D.; Martin, P.; MacMillan, G.; Tolson, B.; Gabriel, C.; Zhang, B.

    2012-12-01

    intensive groundwater modelling case study developed with the FEFLOW software is used to evaluate the proposed methodology. Multiple surrogates of this computationally intensive model with different levels of fidelity are created and applied. Dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) optimization algorithm is used as the search engine in the calibration framework enabled with surrogate models. Results show that this framework can substantially reduce the number of original model evaluations required for calibration by intelligently utilizing faster-to-run surrogates in the course of optimization. Results also demonstrate that the compromise between efficiency (reduced run time) and fidelity of a surrogate model is critically important to the success of the framework, as a surrogate with unreasonably low fidelity, despite being fast, might be quite misleading in calibration of the original model of interest.

  10. Comparison of Artificial Neural Network And M5 Model Tree Technique In Water Level Forecasting of Solo River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasminto, Umboro; Hery Mularta, Listya

    2010-05-01

    Flood events along the Solo River flow at the end of December 2007 has caused lose of properties and lives. Floods occurred in the city of Ngawi, Madiun, Bojonegoro, Babat and surrounding areas. To reduce future losses, one of the important efforts that will occur during a flood is to get information about the magnitude and time will be floods, so that people can make an effort to reduce its impact. Flood forecasting model can provide information of water level in the river some time before the incident. This paper will compare the flood forecasting model at Bojonegoro City was built using the technique of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and M5 Model Tree (M5MT). The model will forecast the water level of 1, 3 and 6 hours ahead at the point of water level recorders in the City of Bojonegoro using input from the water level at some point water level recorders in the upstream such as Karangnongko, Sekayu, Jurug and Wonogiri. The same data set of hourly water level records are used to build the model of ANN and M5MT technique. The selection of parameters and setup of ANN and M5MT technique is done to obtain the best result. The results of the model are evaluated by calculating the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the predictions and observations. RMSE produced by the water level forecasting model 1, 3 and 6 hours ahead with M5MT technique are 0.2723, 0.6279 and 0.7176 meters. While the ANN technique are 0.1829, 0.3192 and 0517 meters. ANN technique has a better ability in predicting low flow, whereas M5 Model Tree technique has a better ability in predicting high flow. Keywords : Water level forecasting, Solo River, M5 Model Tree, Artificial Neural Network

  11. Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

  12. Natural radioactivity levels in granitic plutons and groundwaters in Southeast part of Eskisehir, Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orgün, Y; Altinsoy, N; Gültekin, A H; Karahan, G; Celebi, N

    2005-08-01

    The present work investigated the radioactivity level of the granitoid plutons and its effect on the groundwaters in the southeast part of Eskisehir. Fourteen granitic samples from the Kaymaz and Sivrihisar plutons and 11 groundwater samples from the near vicinity of the pluton were analyzed. The activity concentrations measured for (238)U and (232)Th ranged from 43.59+/-2 to 651.80+/-24 Bq/kg, and 51.16+/-3 to 351.94+/-13 Bq/kg, respectively. The activity concentrations obtained for (40)K varied from 418.50+/-17 to 1618.03+/-66 Bq/kg. The absorbed dose rates in air outdoors ranged from 87.14 to 531.81 nGy/h. All the results obtained from the Kaymaz pluton are higher than those from the Sivrihisar. The U (ave. 16.6 ppm) and Th (ave. 49.9 ppm) values of the Kaymaz pluton are higher than the average concentrations of the magmatic rocks of granitic composition. These results are consistent with high dose rates of the pluton. The gross-alpha activities in the groundwater samples ranged from 0.009 to 1.64 Bq/l and the gross-beta activities from 0.006 to 0.89 Bq/l. The highest gross-alpha value was found in the sample taken from near the Kaymaz pluton. The concentrations of (222)Rn varied from 0.060 to 0.557 Bq/l.

  13. Research on critical groundwater level under the threshold value of land subsidence in the typical region of Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Y.; Liu, J.-R.; Luo, Y.; Yang, Y.; Tian, F.; Lei, K.-C.

    2015-11-01

    Groundwater in Beijing has been excessively exploited in a long time, causing the groundwater level continued to declining and land subsidence areas expanding, which restrained the economic and social sustainable development. Long years of study show good time-space corresponding relationship between groundwater level and land subsidence. To providing scientific basis for the following land subsidence prevention and treatment, quantitative research between groundwater level and settlement is necessary. Multi-linear regression models are set up by long series factual monitoring data about layered water table and settlement in the Tianzhu monitoring station. The results show that: layered settlement is closely related to water table, water level variation and amplitude, especially the water table. Finally, according to the threshold value in the land subsidence prevention and control plan of China (45, 30, 25 mm), the minimum allowable layered water level in this region while settlement achieving the threshold value is calculated between -18.448 and -10.082 m. The results provide a reasonable and operable control target of groundwater level for rational adjustment of groundwater exploited horizon in the future.

  14. Application of a modified conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulation of groundwater level in an undefined watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Nian; Hama, Takehide; Suenaga, Yuichi; Aqili, Sayed Waliullah; Huang, Xiaowu; Wei, Qiaoyan; Kawagoshi, Yasunori

    2016-01-15

    Groundwater level simulation models can help ensure the proper management and use of urban and rural water supply. In this paper, we propose a groundwater level tank model (GLTM) based on a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (tank model) to simulate fluctuations in groundwater level. The variables used in the simulations consist of daily rainfall and daily groundwater level, which were recorded between April 2011 and March 2015 at two representative observation wells in Kumamoto City, Japan. We determined the best-fit model parameters by root-mean-square error through use of the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona algorithm on a simulated data set. Calibration and validation results were evaluated by their coefficients of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, and root-mean-square error values. The GLTM provided accurate results in both the calibration and validation of fluctuations in groundwater level. The split sample test results indicate a good reliability. These results indicate that this model can provide a simple approach to the accurate simulation of groundwater levels.

  15. Research on critical groundwater level under the threshold value of land subsidence in the typical region of Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jiang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater in Beijing has been excessively exploited in a long time, causing the groundwater level continued to declining and land subsidence areas expanding, which restrained the economic and social sustainable development. Long years of study show good time-space corresponding relationship between groundwater level and land subsidence. To providing scientific basis for the following land subsidence prevention and treatment, quantitative research between groundwater level and settlement is necessary. Multi-linear regression models are set up by long series factual monitoring data about layered water table and settlement in the Tianzhu monitoring station. The results show that: layered settlement is closely related to water table, water level variation and amplitude, especially the water table. Finally, according to the threshold value in the land subsidence prevention and control plan of China (45, 30, 25 mm, the minimum allowable layered water level in this region while settlement achieving the threshold value is calculated between −18.448 and −10.082 m. The results provide a reasonable and operable control target of groundwater level for rational adjustment of groundwater exploited horizon in the future.

  16. GGOS Focus Area 3: Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöne, Tilo; Shum, Ck; Tamisiea, Mark; Woodworth, Philip

    2017-04-01

    Sea level and its change have been measured for more than a century. Especially for coastal nations, deltaic regions, and coastal-oriented industries, observations of tides, tidal extremes, storm surges, and sea level rise at the interannual or longer scales have substantial impacts on coastal vulnerability towards resilience and sustainability of world's coastal regions. To date, the observed global sea level rise is largely associated with climate related changes. To find the patterns and fingerprints of those changes, and to e.g., separate the land motion from sea level signals, different monitoring techniques have been developed. Some of them are local, e.g., tide gauges, while others are global, e.g., satellite altimetry. It is well known that sea level change and land vertical motion varies regionally, and both signals need to be measured in order to quantify relative sea level at the local scale. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and its services contribute in many ways to the monitoring of the sea level. These includes tide gauge observations, estimation of gravity changes, satellite altimetry, InSAR/Lidar, GNSS-control of tide gauges, providing ground truth sites for satellite altimetry, and importantly the maintenance of the International Reference Frame. Focus Area 3 (Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability) of GGOS establishes a platform and a forum for researchers and authorities dealing with estimating global and local sea level changes in a 10- to 30-year time span, and its project to the next century or beyond. It presents an excellent opportunity to emphasize the global, through to regional and local, importance of GGOS to a wide range of sea-level related science and practical applications. Focus Area 3 works trough demonstration projects to highlight the value of geodetic techniques to sea level science and applications. Contributions under a call for participation (http://www.ggos.org/Applications/theme3_SL

  17. A multi-tiered time-series modelling approach to forecasting respiratory syncytial virus incidence at the local level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaeder, M C; Fackler, J C

    2012-04-01

    Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of documented viral respiratory infections, and the leading cause of hospitalization, in young children. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients aged Forecasting models of weekly RSV incidence for the local community, inpatient paediatric hospital and paediatric intensive-care unit (PICU) were created. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our models' 2-week forecasts were accurate to ±9·3, ±7·5 and ±1·5 cases/week for the local community, inpatient hospital and PICU, respectively. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the burden of RSV infection at the local and institutional levels, helping communities and institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden and severity of illness in their respective communities.

  18. Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurapov, Alexander L.; Erofeeva, Svetlana Y.; Myers, Edward

    2017-01-01

    Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F = 90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2-60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5-120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2-60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a

  19. Mapping groundwater level and aquifer storage variations from InSAR measurements in the Madrid aquifer, Central Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béjar-Pizarro, Marta; Ezquerro, Pablo; Herrera, Gerardo; Tomás, Roberto; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Ruiz Hernández, José M.; Fernández Merodo, José A.; Marchamalo, Miguel; Martínez, Rubén

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater resources are under stress in many regions of the world and the future water supply for many populations, particularly in the driest places on Earth, is threatened. Future climatic conditions and population growth are expected to intensify the problem. Understanding the factors that control groundwater storage variation is crucial to mitigate its adverse consequences. In this work, we apply satellite-based measurements of ground deformation over the Tertiary detritic aquifer of Madrid (TDAM), Central Spain, to infer the spatio-temporal evolution of water levels and estimate groundwater storage variations. Specifically, we use Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) data during the period 1992-2010 and piezometric time series on 19 well sites covering the period 1997-2010 to build groundwater level maps and quantify groundwater storage variations. Our results reveal that groundwater storage loss occurred in two different periods, 1992-1999 and 2005-2010 and was mainly concentrated in a region of ∼200 km2. The presence of more compressible materials in that region combined with a long continuous water extraction can explain this volumetric deficit. This study illustrates how the combination of PSI and piezometric data can be used to detect small aquifers affected by groundwater storage loss helping to improve their sustainable management.

  20. The thermal consequences of river-level variations in an urban groundwater body highly affected by groundwater heat pumps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Gil, Alejandro; Vázquez-Suñe, Enric; Schneider, Eduardo Garrido; Sánchez-Navarro, José Ángel; Mateo-Lázaro, Jesús

    2014-07-01

    The extensive implementation of ground source heat pumps in urban aquifers is an important issue related to groundwater quality and the future economic feasibility of existent geothermal installations. Although many cities are in the immediate vicinity of large rivers, little is known about the thermal river-groundwater interaction at a kilometric-scale. The aim of this work is to evaluate the thermal impact of river water recharges induced by flood events into an urban alluvial aquifer anthropogenically influenced by geothermal exploitations. The present thermal state of an urban aquifer at a regional scale, including 27 groundwater heat pump installations, has been evaluated. The thermal impacts of these installations in the aquifer together with the thermal impacts from "cold" winter floods have also been spatially and temporally evaluated to ensure better geothermal management of the aquifer. The results showed a variable direct thermal impact from 0 to 6 °C depending on the groundwater-surface water interaction along the river trajectory. The thermal plumes far away from the riverbed also present minor indirect thermal impacts due to hydraulic gradient variations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Pattern Recognition of High O3 Episodes in Forecasting Daily Maximum Ozone Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong-Sook Heo

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a method was developed to diagnose ozone episodes exceeding environmental criteria (e.g., above 80 ppb on the basis of a multivariate statistical method and a fuzzy expert system. This method, being capable of characterizing the occurrence patterns of high-level ozone, was employed to forecast daily maximum ozone levels. The hourly data for both air pollutants and meteorological parameters, obtained both at the surface and at high elevation (500 hPa stations of Seoul City (1989-1996, were analyzed using this method. Through an application of the fuzzy expert system, the data sets were classified into 8 different types for common ozone episodes. In addition, the data sets were divided into patterns of 11 (Station A, 20 (Station B, 8 (Station C, and 10 (Station D for site-specific ozone episodes. The results of the analysis were successful in demonstrating that the method was sufficiently efficient to classify each class quantitatively with its own patterns of ozone pollution.

  2. Temporal and spatial variability response of groundwater level to land use/land cover change in oases of arid areas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Jinfeng; CHEN Xi; LUO Geping; GUO Quanjun

    2006-01-01

    This paper conducts a case study on the impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the temporal and spatial variability of the groundwater level in an arid oasis in the Sangong River Watershed by using the geographical information system (GIS),remote sensing (RS) and geostatistical methods. The temporal and spatial variability of the groundwater level in the watershed in 1978, 1987 and 1998 is regressed by using thesemivariogram model and Kriging interpolation. The LUCC classification maps derived from the aerial images in 1978, Landsat TM image in 1987 and Landsat ETM image in 1998 are used to superpose and analyze the conversion relationship of LUCC types in the regions with different isograms of the groundwater depth. The results show that the change of groundwater recharge was not so significant in the whole oasis, but the temporal and spatial LUCC was significant either in the normal flow periods or in the high flow periods during the 20-year period from 1978 to 1998, and there was a close correlation between them. There is generally a moderate spatial correlation of groundwater level (33.4%),and the spatial autocorrelation distance is 17.78 km.The regions where the groundwater level is sharply changed are also the regions where the land resources are increasingly exploited, which include mainly the exploitation of farmlands, woodlands, and building, industrial and mining lands. The study reveals that the LUCC affects strongly the temporal and spatial variability of the groundwater level in the arid oasis. The study results are of direct and practical significance for rationally utilizing shallow groundwater resources and maintaining the stability of the arid oasis.

  3. Effects of Heterogeneity and Uncertainties in Sources and Initial and Boundary Conditions on Spatiotemporal Variations of Groundwater Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of aquifer heterogeneity and uncertainties in source/sink, and initial and boundary conditions in a groundwater flow model on the spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level, h(x,t), were investigated. Analytical solutions for the variance and covariance of h(x, t) in an unconfined aquifer described by a linearized Boussinesq equation with a white noise source/sink and a random transmissivity field were derived. It was found that in a typical aquifer the error in h(x,t) in early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition and the error reduces as time goes to reach a constant error in later time. The duration during which the effect of the random initial condition is significant may last a few hundred days in most aquifers. The constant error in groundwater in later time is due to the combined effects of the uncertain source/sink and flux boundary: the closer to the flux boundary, the larger the error. The error caused by the uncertain head boundary is limited in a narrow zone near the boundary but it remains more or less constant over time. The effect of the heterogeneity is to increase the variation of groundwater level and the maximum effect occurs close to the constant head boundary because of the linear mean hydraulic gradient. The correlation of groundwater level decreases with temporal interval and spatial distance. In addition, the heterogeneity enhances the correlation of groundwater level, especially at larger time intervals and small spatial distances.

  4. Geomorphic interaction among climate, sea levels and karst groundwater: the Taranto area (South of Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spilotro, Giuseppe; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores; Argentiero, Ilenia; Pellicani, Roberta; Parisi, Alessandro; Di Modugno, Antonella

    2017-04-01

    The area of Taranto (Apulia region, Italy) has an extraordinary environmental and landscape value, which derives from its specific geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological conditions: they represent the effect of a complex mechanism of interaction in the geological time among the sea, its level variations and stands driven by climate changes, karst groundwater and the geo lithological frame. The knowledge of this interaction spans over two very different time duration: the first is subsequent to the sedimentary pleistocenic deposition and diagenesis and lasts until the late Holocene; the second spans over a more limited time durations, from the LIA until today, and its knowledge is mainly based on hystorical topographic records and reports. The general geological and stratigraphical setting is represented by marine deposits, which fill the Bradanic Trough, shaped in the upper part as marine terraces bordering the W and SW side of the Murgian carbonate platform (Apulia, South of Italy) as well. This latter constitutes an important karst hydro-structure, fed by precipitation, bordered on the opposite side of the Bradanic Trough by the Adriatic Sea. Fresh groundwater hosted in the huge coastal aquifer freely flows towards the Adriatic coast, while on the opposite W-NW side, the continuous confinement by the impermeable filling of the trough, forces the underground drainage of the aquifer towards the Ionian Sea just in the Taranto area. The overall flow rate of the groundwater through submarine and subaerial coastal springs, according to the current sea level, is significant and currently estimated in about 18 m3/sec. Climate changes have forced over geological time, but also in shorter periods, sea level changes and stands, consequently correlated to groundwater levels. This allowed genesis of selected karst levels, of regional extension, both at the surface or underground, which arise as typical forms, namely polje and karst plane inland, terraces on the sea

  5. Accuracy enhancement for forecasting water levels of reservoirs and river streams using a multiple-input-pattern fuzzification approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valizadeh, Nariman; El-Shafie, Ahmed; Mirzaei, Majid; Galavi, Hadi; Mukhlisin, Muhammad; Jaafar, Othman

    2014-01-01

    Water level forecasting is an essential topic in water management affecting reservoir operations and decision making. Recently, modern methods utilizing artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, and combinations of these techniques have been used in hydrological applications because of their considerable ability to map an input-output pattern without requiring prior knowledge of the criteria influencing the forecasting procedure. The artificial neurofuzzy interface system (ANFIS) is one of the most accurate models used in water resource management. Because the membership functions (MFs) possess the characteristics of smoothness and mathematical components, each set of input data is able to yield the best result using a certain type of MF in the ANFIS models. The objective of this study is to define the different ANFIS model by applying different types of MFs for each type of input to forecast the water level in two case studies, the Klang Gates Dam and Rantau Panjang station on the Johor river in Malaysia, to compare the traditional ANFIS model with the new introduced one in two different situations, reservoir and stream, showing the new approach outweigh rather than the traditional one in both case studies. This objective is accomplished by evaluating the model fitness and performance in daily forecasting.

  6. Water-Level Monitoring Plan for the Hanford Groundwater Monitoring Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.R. Newcomer; J.P. McDonald; M.A. Chamness

    1999-09-30

    This document presents the water-level monitoring plan for the Hanford Groundwater Monitoring Project, conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Water-level monitoring of the groundwater system beneath the Hanford Site is performed to fulfill the requirements of various state and federal regulations, orders, and agreements. The primary objective of this monitoring is to determine groundwater flow rates and directions. To meet this and other objectives, water-levels are measured annually in monitoring wells completed within the unconfined aquifer system, the upper basalt-confined aquifer system, and in the lower basalt-confined aquifers for surveillance monitoring. At regulated waste units, water levels are taken monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, or annually, depending on the hydrogeologic conditions and regulatory status of a given site. The techniques used to collect water-level data are described in this document along with the factors that affect the quality of the data and the strategies employed by the project to minimize error in the measurement and interpretation of water levels. Well networks are presented for monitoring the unconfined aquifer system, the upper basalt-confined aquifer system, and the lower basalt-confined aquifers, all at a regional scale (surveillance monitoring), as well as the local-scale well networks for each of the regulated waste units studied by this project (regulated-unit monitoring). The criteria used to select wells for water-table monitoring are discussed. It is observed that poor well coverage for surveillance water-table monitoring exists south and west of the 200-West Area, south of the 100-F Area, and east of B Pond and the Treated Effluent Disposal Facility (TEDF). This poor coverage results from a lack of wells suitable for water-table monitoring, and causes uncertainty in representation of the regional water-table in these areas. These deficiencies are regional in scale and apply to regions outside

  7. Groundwater monitoring in the Savannah River Plant Low Level Waste Burial Ground

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlton, W.H.

    1983-12-31

    This document describes chemical mechanisms that may affect trace-level radionuclide migration through acidic sandy clay soils in a humid environment, and summarizes the extensive chemical and radiochemical analyses of the groundwater directly below the SRP Low-Level Waste (LLW) Burial Ground (643-G). Anomalies were identified in the chemistry of individual wells which appear to be related to small amounts of fission product activity that have reached the water table. The chemical properties which were statistically related to trace level transport of Cs-137 and Sr-90 were iron, potassium, sodium and calcium. Concentrations on the order of 100 ppM appear sufficient to affect nuclide migration. Several complexation mechanisms for plutonium migration were investigated.

  8. Microbial Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) and herbicide mineralization potential in groundwater affected by agricultural land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janniche, Gry Sander; Spliid, Henrik; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2012-01-01

    Diffuse groundwater pollution from agricultural land use may impact the microbial groundwater community, which was investigated as Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) using EcoPlate™. Water was sampled from seven piezometers and a spring in a small agricultural catchment with diffuse...... herbicide and nitrate pollution. Based on the Shannon–Wiener and Simpson's diversity indices the diversity in the microbial communities was high. The response from the EcoPlates™ showed which substrates support groundwater bacteria, and all 31 carbon sources were utilized by organisms from at least one......-galacturonic acid, tween 40, and 4-hydroxy benzoic acid as substrates, whereas none preferred 2-hydroxy benzoic acid, α-d-lactose, d,l-α-glycerol phosphate, α-ketobutyric acid, l-threonine and glycyl-l-glutamic acid. Principal Component Analysis of the CLPP's clustered the most agriculturally affected groundwater...

  9. Groundwater level response in U.S. Principal Aquifers to natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, E.; Gurdak, J. J.; Dickinson, J.; Hanson, R. T.; Ferré, T. P. A.; Maurer, E. P.

    2014-12-01

    Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales are important controls on precipitation, drought, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater recharge. Climate variability can also augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Thus, understanding climate variability has particular relevance for groundwater management. Findings will be presented from a national scale study of groundwater level response to natural climate variability in principal aquifers (PAs) of the U.S., including the California Coastal Basin, Rio Grande, Coastal Lowlands, Mississippi Embayment, Floridan, and Glacial aquifer systems. We use the U.S. Geological Survey hydroclimatic analysis toolkit HydroClimATe to perform singular spectrum analysis and identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (management and planning decisions about the locations, cost effectiveness, and optimal time periods for conjunctive use strategies.

  10. Optimisation of groundwater level monitoring networks using geostatistical modelling based on the Spartan family variogram and a genetic algorithm method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parasyris, Antonios E.; Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater level monitoring networks provide essential information for water resources management, especially in areas with significant groundwater exploitation for agricultural and domestic use. Given the high maintenance costs of these networks, development of tools, which can be used by regulators for efficient network design is essential. In this work, a monitoring network optimisation tool is presented. The network optimisation tool couples geostatistical modelling based on the Spartan family variogram with a genetic algorithm method and is applied to Mires basin in Crete, Greece, an area of high socioeconomic and agricultural interest, which suffers from groundwater overexploitation leading to a dramatic decrease of groundwater levels. The purpose of the optimisation tool is to determine which wells to exclude from the monitoring network because they add little or no beneficial information to groundwater level mapping of the area. Unlike previous relevant investigations, the network optimisation tool presented here uses Ordinary Kriging with the recently-established non-differentiable Spartan variogram for groundwater level mapping, which, based on a previous geostatistical study in the area leads to optimal groundwater level mapping. Seventy boreholes operate in the area for groundwater abstraction and water level monitoring. The Spartan variogram gives overall the most accurate groundwater level estimates followed closely by the power-law model. The geostatistical model is coupled to an integer genetic algorithm method programmed in MATLAB 2015a. The algorithm is used to find the set of wells whose removal leads to the minimum error between the original water level mapping using all the available wells in the network and the groundwater level mapping using the reduced well network (error is defined as the 2-norm of the difference between the original mapping matrix with 70 wells and the mapping matrix of the reduced well network). The solution to the

  11. Comparing M5 Model Trees and Neural Networks for River Level Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, S.; See, L.

    2005-12-01

    each partition clearly indicate the importance of different inputs; for example, one of the rain gauges is never used, despite selection through correlation analysis. The importance of different upstream stations as level increases is also clearly identified. This type of knowledge coupled with a good performing model has shown that M5 model trees have great operational potential. Solomatine, D.P. and Xue, Y.P. 2004. M5 model trees and neural networks: Application to flood forecasting in the upper reach of the Huai River in China, J. of Hydrol. Eng., 9: 491-501.

  12. Purification and Detection of 39Ar in Groundwater Samples via Low-Level Counting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, E. K.; Aalseth, C.; Brandenberger, J. M.; Humble, P.; Panisko, M.; Seifert, A.; Williams, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Argon-39 can be used as a radiotracer to age-date groundwater aquifers to study recharge rates and to better understand the mean residence time, or age distributions, of groundwater. Argon-39 (with a half-life of 269 years) is created in the atmosphere by cosmic rays interacting with argon in the air (primarily 40Ar). The use of 39Ar as a radiotracer fills a gap in the age dating range which is currently covered by 3H/3He or 85Kr (1000 years); 39Ar fills the intermediate time scale range from 50-1000 years where the previously established radiotracers are not adequate. We will introduce the process for purifying and detecting 39Ar in ground water using ultra-low-background proportional counters (ULBPCs) at the shallow underground laboratory at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Argon-39 is detected through direct beta counting using ULBPCs loaded with a mixture of geologic argon (extracted from a carbon dioxide well with no measureable 39Ar activity) and methane, which enhances the sensitivity for 39Ar measurements. The ULBPCs have been shown to have a background count rate of 148 counts per day (cpd) in the energy range 3-400 keV when filled with 10 atm of P-10 counting gas (90% geologic Ar, 10% CH4). Initial demonstration samples were collected from groundwater aquifers in Fresno, California supported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). A discussion of the sampling technique to degas the water from these wells and to then purify it for counting will be presented. In order to quantify the 39Ar contribution in the groundwater samples, the ULBPCs were characterized to determine two components: 1) the detector efficiency to modern levels of 39Ar, and 2) the remaining detector background (using geologic sourced argon which is free from 39Ar - no measureable 39Ar activity). These characterization results will be presented along with a discussion of the quantification of the 39Ar age of the demonstration measurements.

  13. Real-time multi-step-ahead water level forecasting by recurrent neural networks for urban flood control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Lu, Ying-Ray; Huang, Eric; Chang, Kai-Yao

    2014-09-01

    Urban flood control is a crucial task, which commonly faces fast rising peak flows resulting from urbanization. To mitigate future flood damages, it is imperative to construct an on-line accurate model to forecast inundation levels during flood periods. The Yu-Cheng Pumping Station located in Taipei City of Taiwan is selected as the study area. Firstly, historical hydrologic data are fully explored by statistical techniques to identify the time span of rainfall affecting the rise of the water level in the floodwater storage pond (FSP) at the pumping station. Secondly, effective factors (rainfall stations) that significantly affect the FSP water level are extracted by the Gamma test (GT). Thirdly, one static artificial neural network (ANN) (backpropagation neural network-BPNN) and two dynamic ANNs (Elman neural network-Elman NN; nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs-NARX network) are used to construct multi-step-ahead FSP water level forecast models through two scenarios, in which scenario I adopts rainfall and FSP water level data as model inputs while scenario II adopts only rainfall data as model inputs. The results demonstrate that the GT can efficiently identify the effective rainfall stations as important inputs to the three ANNs; the recurrent connections from the output layer (NARX network) impose more effects on the output than those of the hidden layer (Elman NN) do; and the NARX network performs the best in real-time forecasting. The NARX network produces coefficients of efficiency within 0.9-0.7 (scenario I) and 0.7-0.5 (scenario II) in the testing stages for 10-60-min-ahead forecasts accordingly. This study suggests that the proposed NARX models can be valuable and beneficial to the government authority for urban flood control.

  14. Climate change impact on groundwater levels: ensemble modelling of extreme values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kidmose

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a first attempt to estimate future groundwater levels by applying extreme value statistics on predictions from a hydrological model. Climate for the future period, 2081–2100, are represented by projections from nine combinations of three global climate models and six regional climate models, and downscaled with two different methods. An integrated surface water/groundwater model is forced with precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration from the 18 model – and downscaling combinations. Extreme value analyses are performed on the hydraulic head changes from a control period (1991–2010 to the future period for the 18 combinations. Hydraulic heads for return periods of 21, 50 and 100 yr (T21–100 are estimated. Three uncertainty sources are evaluated; climate models, downscaling and extreme value statistics. Of these sources, downscaling dominates for the higher return periods of 50 and 100 yr, whereas uncertainty from climate models and downscaling are similar for lower return periods. Uncertainty from the extreme value statistics only contribute up to around 10% of the uncertainty from the three sources.

  15. DETERMINATION OF THE GROUND-WATER LEVEL BY MODERN NON-DISTRUCTIVE METHODS (GPR TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. C. NICU

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Determination of the ground-water level by modern non-dis¬tructive methods (ground-penetrating radar technology. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR is now a well-accepted geophysical technique, which unfortunately in our country its less used. Historically, the development of GPR comes from the use of radio echosounding to determine ice thickness and it was only a short step to enlarge the domain of research such as permafrost, geological investigation (bedrock, sedimentology, environmental assessment and hydrogeophysical studies (under-ground water location, soil water content. The GPR method measures the travel time of electromagnetic impulses in subsurface materials. An impulse radar system radiates repetitive electromagnetic impulses into the soil. A bandwidth antenna is usually placed in close proximity and electromagnetic coupled to the ground surface. It detects and measures the depth of reflecting discontinuities in subsurface soils and other earth materials to within a few centimeters depending of antenna frequency. For over 30 years, GPR has been used extensively for hydropedological investigations. Our research aims to determine the groundwater to estimate the degree of evolution of hydro-geomorphological processes.

  16. Peak load demand forecasting using two-level discrete wavelet decomposition and neural network algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnoon, Pituk; Chalermyanont, Kusumal; Limsakul, Chusak

    2010-02-01

    This paper proposed the discrete transform and neural network algorithms to obtain the monthly peak load demand in mid term load forecasting. The mother wavelet daubechies2 (db2) is employed to decomposed, high pass filter and low pass filter signals from the original signal before using feed forward back propagation neural network to determine the forecasting results. The historical data records in 1997-2007 of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used as reference. In this study, historical information of peak load demand(MW), mean temperature(Tmean), consumer price index (CPI), and industrial index (economic:IDI) are used as feature inputs of the network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is approximately 4.32%. This forecasting results can be used for fuel planning and unit commitment of the power system in the future.

  17. Evaluation of Forecast Performance on Asian Summer Monsoon Low Level Wind Using TIGGE Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruoyun, Niu

    2016-04-01

    The forecast performance of EASM (East Asia summer monsoon) and SASM (South Asia summer monsoon) for six TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) centers in the summers of 2008-2013 are evaluated to reflect the current predictability of the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction. The results show that EASM is overestimated by all the TIGGE centers (except the Canadian Meteorological Center, CMC). SASM is also over-predicted by ECMWF (the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), CMA (the China Meteorological Administration) and CMC but conversely under-predicted by JMA (the Japan Meteorological Agency), Additionally, SASM is overestimated for the early lead times and underestimated for the longer lead times by NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and UKMO (the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO). Further analysis suggests such biases are likely to the associated with those in the related land-sea thermal contrasts. EASM surge is basically overestimated by NCEP and CMA and mainly underestimated by the others. The bias predictabilities for SASM surge are similar to that of SASM. The peaks of SASM and EASM including their surges are mainly underestimated while the valleys are mostly overestimated. By comparison, ECMWF and UKMO have overall the highest forecast skills in predicting SASM and EASM and both have respective advantages. All the TIGGE centers generally show higher skills in predicting SASM than EASM. The forecast skills of SASM and EASM are superior to that of their respective surges. Moreover, the bias-correction forecast skills tend to be improved with higher correlation coefficients in raw forecast verification.

  18. Space-Time Modelling of Groundwater Level Using Spartan Covariance Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varouchakis, Emmanouil; Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2014-05-01

    Geostatistical models often need to handle variables that change in space and in time, such as the groundwater level of aquifers. A major advantage of space-time observations is that a higher number of data supports parameter estimation and prediction. In a statistical context, space-time data can be considered as realizations of random fields that are spatially extended and evolve in time. The combination of spatial and temporal measurements in sparsely monitored watersheds can provide very useful information by incorporating spatiotemporal correlations. Spatiotemporal interpolation is usually performed by applying the standard Kriging algorithms extended in a space-time framework. Spatiotemoral covariance functions for groundwater level modelling, however, have not been widely developed. We present a new non-separable theoretical spatiotemporal variogram function which is based on the Spartan covariance family and evaluate its performance in spatiotemporal Kriging (STRK) interpolation. The original spatial expression (Hristopulos and Elogne 2007) that has been successfully used for the spatial interpolation of groundwater level (Varouchakis and Hristopulos 2013) is modified by defining the following space-time normalized distance h = °h2r-+-α h2τ, hr=r- ξr, hτ=τ- ξτ; where r is the spatial lag vector, τ the temporal lag vector, ξr is the correlation length in position space (r) and ξτ in time (τ), h the normalized space-time lag vector, h = |h| is its Euclidean norm of the normalized space-time lag and α the coefficient that determines the relative weight of the time lag. The space-time experimental semivariogram is determined from the biannual (wet and dry period) time series of groundwater level residuals (obtained from the original series after trend removal) between the years 1981 and 2003 at ten sampling stations located in the Mires hydrological basin in the island of Crete (Greece). After the hydrological year 2002-2003 there is a significant

  19. 基于多变量时间序列模型的大安市地下水埋深预测%Groundwater table forecast in Da’an City based on multivariate time series model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张真真; 卞建民; 韩宇; 张琳

    2015-01-01

    At first ,the influencing factors which had great relevance with groundwater table were determined by the principal component analysis (PCA ) method ,then established the groundwater table forecast model by using the multi-variate time series CAR model , according to the information as rainfall , evapovation , groundwater exploitation and groundwater tables and so on from 2000 to 2009 in Da’an City .Also the model was validated and applied to forecast the groundwater tables .The result shown that :The correlation coefficients of agricultural water consumption ,precipitation and evaporation with the groundwater table were 0 .56 ,0 .46 and -0 .13 , respectively .The contributions of the three factors with the groundwater table were 43 .09% ,27 .45% and 21 .39% ,respectively .The total contribution rate was 91 .93% and they were the major factors affecting the groundwater table .The relative error between forecasting value and measured value for confined and unconfined water tables was less than 5% .According to the forecast scheme ,when the rainfall was reduced 10% and evaporation was increased 9% , and the agricultural water consumption was increased 11% ,the confined water table will be reached 8 .70 m ,and the unconfined water table will be reached 4 .55 m .So in drought period ,the agricultural exploitation should be reduced properly ,the surface water irrigation should be increased , to reduce the possibility of soil desertification .%依据大安市2000—2009年的降水、蒸发、地下水开采量和地下水埋深等数据资料,首先利用主成分分析法确定了与地下水埋深相关性较大的影响因素,然后利用多变量时间序列CAR模型建立了大安市地下水埋深预测模型,并对模型进行验证,利用模型预测了地下水埋深。结果表明,农业用水量、降水量和蒸发量与地下水埋深的相关系数分别为:0.56,0.46,-0.13,三者对地下水埋深的贡献率分别为:43.09

  20. Physiological response of natural plants to the change of groundwater level in the lower reaches of Tarim River,Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Yaning; LI Weihong; CHEN Yapeng; ZHANG Hongfeng; ZHUANG Li

    2004-01-01

    Based on the analysis of the three-year (2000-2002) monitoring data of the four times intermittent stream water conveyance to the lower reaches of Tarim River where the stream flow was dried up for more than 30 years and the measurement of PRO, SOD and POD in plants collected from 24 vegetation plots, it is concluded that the stream water conveyance plays an important role in lifting groundwater level. The groundwater nearby the watercourse was raised from 5~8 m in depth before the stream water conveyance to 2.5~5 m after stream water conveyance. The physiological response of Phragmites communis, Tamarix spp. And Populus euphratica to the change of groundwater is sensitive and represents a grads change obviously. The growth of the plants in the lower reaches of Tarim River is stressed by drought to various degrees. Lengthways, the drought stress exposed to the plants increases with groundwater depth from the upper sections to the lower sections; and breadthwise, the drought stress exposed to the plants is increased with the increase of distance away from the river channel of stream intermittent water releases and of the groundwater depth. Combining the field investigation and the analysis of the plots, it is considered that the stress groundwater depths for the Phragmites communis, Tamarix spp. And Populus euphratica are 3.5 m, 5 m and 4.5 m respectively.

  1. Combining natural background levels (NBLs) assessment with indicator kriging analysis to improve groundwater quality data interpretation and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducci, Daniela; de Melo, M Teresa Condesso; Preziosi, Elisabetta; Sellerino, Mariangela; Parrone, Daniele; Ribeiro, Luis

    2016-11-01

    The natural background level (NBL) concept is revisited and combined with indicator kriging method to analyze the spatial distribution of groundwater quality within a groundwater body (GWB). The aim is to provide a methodology to easily identify areas with the same probability of exceeding a given threshold (which may be a groundwater quality criteria, standards, or recommended limits for selected properties and constituents). Three case studies with different hydrogeological settings and located in two countries (Portugal and Italy) are used to derive NBL using the preselection method and validate the proposed methodology illustrating its main advantages over conventional statistical water quality analysis. Indicator kriging analysis was used to create probability maps of the three potential groundwater contaminants. The results clearly indicate the areas within a groundwater body that are potentially contaminated because the concentrations exceed the drinking water standards or even the local NBL, and cannot be justified by geogenic origin. The combined methodology developed facilitates the management of groundwater quality because it allows for the spatial interpretation of NBL values.

  2. Reconstruction of the Past and Forecast of the Future European and British Ice Sheets and Associated Sea–Level Change

    OpenAIRE

    Hagdorn, Magnus K M

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of the past European and British ice sheets as a basis for forecasting their future. The behaviour of these ice sheets is investigated by simulating them using a numerical model and comparing model results with geological data including relative sea–level change data. In order to achieve this aim, a coupled ice sheet/lithosphere model is developed. Ice sheets form an integral part of the Earth system. They affect the plane...

  3. A Markov Model for Forecasting Inventory Levels for U.S Navy Medical Service Corps Healthcare Administrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Exper Psych 30 4% Clinical Dietetics 26 3% Financial Mgt 78 8% Research Psych 17 3% Optometry 109 11% MPT&E 31 3% Entomology 39 6% Pharmacy , General 136...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A MARKOV MODEL FOR...FORECASTING INVENTORY LEVELS FOR U.S NAVY MEDICAL SERVICE CORPS HEALTHCARE ADMINISTRATORS by Sobondo Josiah March 2014 Thesis Co

  4. Method for the Preparation of Hazard Map in Urban Area Using Soil Depth and Groundwater Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong; Cho, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju-Hyoung

    2017-04-01

    The hazard maps for predicting collapse on natural slopes consists of a combination of topographic, hydrological, and geological factors. Topographic factors are extracted from DEM, including aspect, slope, curvature, and topographic index. Hydrological factors, such as distance to drainage, drainage density, stream-power index, and wetness index are most important factors for slope instability. However, most of the urban areas are located on the plains and it is difficult to apply the hazard map using the topography and hydrological factors. In order to evaluate the risk of collapse of flat and low slope areas, soil depth and groundwater level data were collected and used as a factor for interpretation. In addition, the reliability of the hazard map was compared with the disaster history of the study area (Gangnam-gu and Yeouido district). In the disaster map of the disaster prevention agency, the urban area was mostly classified as the stable area and did not reflect the collapse history. Soil depth, drainage conditions and groundwater level obtained from boreholes were added as input data of hazard map, and disaster vulnerability increased at the location where the actual collapse points. In the study area where damage occurred, the moderate and low grades of the vulnerability of previous hazard map were 12% and 88%, respectively. While, the improved map showed 2% high grade, moderate grade 29%, low grade 66% and very low grade 2%. These results were similar to actual damage. Keywords: hazard map, urban area, soil depth, ground water level Acknowledgement This research was supported by a Grant from a Strategic Research Project (Horizontal Drilling and Stabilization Technologies for Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Operation) funded by the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology.

  5. Screening-level risk assessment for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) trimer detected in soil and groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirman, C R; Gargas, M L; Collins, J J; Rowlands, J C

    2012-01-01

    A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluated to assess potential on-site and off-site exposures, using parameter values for exposures to soil (oral, inhalation of particulates, and dermal contact) and groundwater (oral, dermal contact) to reflect central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. Three reference dose (RfD) values were derived for SAN Trimer for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, based upon its effects on the liver in exposed rats. Benchmark (BMD) methods were used to assess the relationship between exposure and response, and to characterize appropriate points of departure (POD) for each RfD. An uncertainty factor of 300 was applied to each POD to yield RfD values of 0.1, 0.04, and 0.03 mg/kg-d for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, respectively. Because a chronic cancer bioassay for SAN Trimer in rats (NTP 2011a) does not provide evidence of carcinogenicity, a cancer risk assessment is not appropriate for this chemical. Potential health hazards to human health were assessed using a hazard index (HI) approach, which considers the ratio of exposure dose (i.e., average daily dose, mg/kg-d) to toxicity dose (RfD, mg/kg-d) for each scenario. All CTE and RME HI values are well below 1 (where the average daily dose is equivalent to the RfD), indicating that there is no concern for potential noncancer effects in exposed populations even under the conservative assumptions of this screening-level assessment.

  6. Characterization of sediment and measurement of groundwater levels and temperatures, Camas National Wildlife Refuge, eastern Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twining, Brian V.; Rattray, Gordon W.

    2016-11-02

    The Camas National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) in eastern Idaho, established in 1937, contains wetlands, ponds, and wet meadows that are essential resting and feeding habitat for migratory birds and nesting habitat for waterfowl. Initially, natural sources of water supported these habitats. However, during the past few decades, climate change and changes in surrounding land use have altered and reduced natural groundwater and surface water inflows such that the wetlands, ponds, and wet meadows are now maintained through water management and groundwater pumping. These water management activities have proven to be inefficient and costly, prompting the Refuge to develop alternative water management options that are more efficient and less expensive. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, is studying the hydrogeology at the Refuge to provide information for developing alternative water management options.The hydrogeologic studies at the Refuge included characterizing the type, distribution, and hydraulic conductivity of surficial sediments and measuring water levels and temperatures in monitoring wells. Four monitoring wells and seven soil probe coreholes were drilled at the Refuge. Seven water level and temperature data loggers were installed in the wells and water levels and temperatures were continuously recorded from November 2014 to June 2016. Sediment cores were collected from the coreholes and sediment type and distribution were characterized from drillers’ notes, geophysical logs, corehole samples, and particle grain-size analysis. The hydraulic conductivities of sediments were estimated using the measured average grain size and the assumed textural maturity of the sediment, and ranged from about 20 to 290 feet per day.

  7. Flow Forecasting using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydrodynamic Urban Drainage Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lisbet Sneftrup; Borup, Morten; Moller, Arne

    2014-01-01

    , and then evaluates and documents the performance of this particular updating procedure for flow forecasting. A hypothetical case study and synthetic observations are used to illustrate how the Update method works and affects downstream nodes. A real case study in a 544 ha urban catchment furthermore shows...

  8. Experiments in Objective Aviation Weather Forecasting Using Upper-Level Steering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-12-13

    Estoque 2 and Reed 3 developed graphical 1000- mb forecast techniques, applying baroclinic theory, and these techniques steered thermal patterns using upper...none. 42 References 1. Fjbrtoft. R. (1952) On a numerical method of integrating the barotropic vorti- city equation. Tellus 4:179-194. 2. Estoque . M.A

  9. Records of wells, ground-water levels, and ground-water withdrawals in the lower Goose Creek Basin, Cassia County, Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mower, R.W.

    1954-01-01

    Investigations by the United States Geological Survey of Ground Water in the Southern border area of the Snake Rive Plain, south of the Snake River, a re concerned at the present time with delineation of the principal ground-water districts, the extent and location of existing ground-water developments, the possibilities for additional development, and the effects of ground-water development on the regimen of streams and reservoirs whose waters are appropriate for beneficial use. The lower part of the Goose Creek Basin is one of the important ground-water districts of the southern plains area and there are substantial but spotty developments of ground water for irrigation in the basin. Several thousand irrigable acres that are now dry could be put under irrigation if a dependable supply of ground water could be developed. The relations of the ground-water reservoirs to the regime of the Snake River and Goose Cree, and to the large body of ground water in the Snake River Plain north of the Snake, are poorly known. A large amount of geologic and hydrologic study remains to be done before those relations can be accurately determined. Investigations will be continued in the future but file work and preparation of a comprehensive report inevitably will be delayed. Therefore the available records are presented herein in order to make them accessible to farmers, well drillers, government agencies, and the general public. Interpretation of the records is not attempted in this report and is deferred pending the accumulation of additional and quantitative information. The data summarized herein include records of the locations and physical characteristics of wells, the depth to water in wells, fluctuations of water levels in observation wells, and estimated rates and volumes of seasonal ans yearly ground-water pumpage for irrigation, municipal, and other uses. This information is complete for work done as of December 31, 1952. The investigations upon which this report is

  10. Fluctuations in groundwater levels related to regional and local withdrawals in the fractured-bedrock groundwater system in northern Wake County, North Carolina, March 2008-February 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Melinda J.; Almanaseer, Naser; McClenney, Bryce; Hinton, Natalie

    2011-01-01

    A study of dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer in a localized area of east-central North Carolina was conducted from March 2008 through February 2009 to gain an understanding of why some privately owned wells and monitoring wells were intermittently dry. Although the study itself was localized in nature, the resulting water-resources data and information produced from the study will help enable resource managers to make sound water-supply and water-use decisions in similar crystalline-rock aquifer setting in parts of the Piedmont and Blue Ridge Physiographic Provinces. In June 2005, homeowners in a subdivision of approximately 11 homes on lots approximately 1 to 2 acres in size in an unincorporated area of Wake County, North Carolina, reported extremely low water pressure and temporarily dry wells during a brief period. This area of the State, which is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, is undergoing rapid growth and development. Similar well conditions were reported again in July 2007. In an effort to evaluate aquifer conditions in the area of intermittent water loss, a study was begun in March 2008 to measure and monitor water levels and groundwater use. During the study period from March 2008 through February 2009, regular dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer was documented with water levels in many wells ranging between 100 and 200 feet below land surface. Prior to this period, water levels from the 1980s through the late 1990s were reported to range from 15 to 50 feet below land surface. The study area includes three community wells and more than 30 private wells within a 2,000-foot radius of the dewatered private wells. Although groundwater levels were low, recovery was observed during periods of heavy rainfall, most likely a result of decreased withdrawals owing to less demand for irrigation purposes. Similar areal patterns of low groundwater levels were delineated during nine water-level measurement periods from March 2008 through

  11. Impact of coal gangue on the level of main trace elements in the shallow groundwater of a mine reclamation area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Wei; Chen Longqian; Zhou Tianjian; Tang Qibao; Zhang Ting

    2011-01-01

    Coal gangue is the most used filling material during reclamation of areas suffering subsidence from mining.Main trace element levels (F,As,Hg,and Pb) in shallow groundwater in the reclamation area may be affected by leaching from the gangue.This can has an impact on the application of the water for agricultural irrigation or use as drinking water.Therefore,it is of great significance to understand the effect coal gangue has on the shallow groundwater of a reclaimed area.We studied the effect of coal gangue on fluorine,arsenic,mercury,and lead levels in the shallow groundwater of a reclamation area by testing the water and the coal gangue.One well near the reclamation area was used as a control well and element levels in water from this well and from the soil next to the well were also measured.The results show that the levels of these elements are increasing in the reclamation area over time.The increase in fluorine,arsenic,mercury,and lead in monitor wells varies from 7.42% to 8.26%,from 7.13% to 7.90%,from 4.85% to 6.48%,and from 4.69% to 6.42%,respectively.Fluorine and arsenic levels are lower in monitor wells than in the control water.The other elements are found in greater concentration than in the control.The Nemerow index also indicates that the shallow groundwater in the reclamation area Ⅰ is moderately affected by the back-filling coal gangue,while the shallow groundwater in the reclamation area Ⅱ and Ⅲ are slightly affected by the back-filling coal gangue.This shallow groundwater could be used for agricultural irrigation or for drinking.

  12. Groundwater-level and storage-volume changes in the Equus Beds aquifer near Wichita, Kansas, predevelopment through January 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whisnant, Joshua A.; Hansen, Cristi V.; Eslick, Patrick J.

    2015-10-01

    Development of the Wichita well field began in the 1940s in the Equus Beds aquifer to provide the city of Wichita, Kansas, a new water-supply source. After development of the Wichita well field began, groundwater levels began to decline. Extensive development of irrigation wells that began in the 1970s also contributed to substantial groundwater-level declines. Groundwater-level declines likely enhance movement of brine from past oil and gas production near Burrton, Kansas, and natural saline water from the Arkansas River into the Wichita well field. Groundwater levels reached a historical minimum in 1993 because of drought conditions, irrigation, and the city of Wichita’s withdrawals from the aquifer. In 1993, the city of Wichita adopted the Integrated Local Water Supply Program to ensure that Wichita’s water needs would be met through the year 2050 and beyond as part of its efforts to manage the part of the Equus Beds aquifer Wichita uses. A key component of the Integrated Local Water Supply Program was the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project. The Aquifer Storage and Recovery project’s goal is to store and eventually recover groundwater and help protect the Equus Beds aquifer from oil-field brine water near Burrton, Kansas, and saline water from the Arkansas River. Since 1940, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored groundwater levels and storage-volume changes in the Equus Beds aquifer to provide data to the city of Wichita in order to better manage its water supply.

  13. Quantifying uncertainty in predictions of groundwater levels using formal likelihood methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchant, Ben; Mackay, Jonathan; Bloomfield, John

    2016-09-01

    Informal and formal likelihood methods can be used to quantify uncertainty in modelled predictions of groundwater levels (GWLs). Informal methods use a relatively subjective criterion to identify sets of plausible or behavioural parameters of the GWL models. In contrast, formal methods specify a statistical model for the residuals or errors of the GWL model. The formal uncertainty estimates are only reliable when the assumptions of the statistical model are appropriate. We apply the formal approach to historical reconstructions of GWL hydrographs from four UK boreholes. We test whether a model which assumes Gaussian and independent errors is sufficient to represent the residuals or whether a model which includes temporal autocorrelation and a general non-Gaussian distribution is required. Groundwater level hydrographs are often observed at irregular time intervals so we use geostatistical methods to quantify the temporal autocorrelation rather than more standard time series methods such as autoregressive models. According to the Akaike Information Criterion, the more general statistical model better represents the residuals of the GWL model. However, no substantial difference between the accuracy of the GWL predictions and the estimates of their uncertainty is observed when the two statistical models are compared. When the general model is applied, significant temporal correlation over periods ranging from 3 to 20 months is evident for the different boreholes. When the GWL model parameters are sampled using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach the distributions based on the general statistical model differ from those of the Gaussian model, particularly for the boreholes with the most autocorrelation. These results suggest that the independent Gaussian model of residuals is sufficient to estimate the uncertainty of a GWL prediction on a single date. However, if realistically autocorrelated simulations of GWL hydrographs for multiple dates are required or if the

  14. How geomorphology and groundwater level affect the spatio-temporal variability of riverine cold water patches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wawrzyniak, Vincent; Piégay, Hervé; Allemand, Pascal; Vaudor, Lise; Goma, Régis; Grandjean, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Temperature is a key factor for river ecosystems. In summer, patches of cold water are formed in the river by groundwater seepage. These patches have strong ecological significance and extend to the surface water in a well-mixed riverine system. These patches can serve as thermal refuges for some fish species during summer. In this study, the temporal variability and spatial distribution of cold water patches were explored along a 50 km river reach (the lower Ain River, France) using thermal infrared airborne remote sensing. This study examines a new range of processes acting on cold water patches at different scales that have not previously been touched upon in the literature. Three airborne campaigns were conducted during the summers of 2010, 2011 and 2014. Based on these images, a large number of cold water patches were identified using an automated method. Four types of patches were observed: tributary plumes, cold side channels (former channels or point-bar backwater channels), side seeps (located directly in the river channel) and gravel bar seeps (occurring at the downstream end of gravel bars). Logistic regression was used to analyse the longitudinal distribution of cold water patches according to geomorphologic indicators reflecting current or past fluvial process. Side seeps were found to be related to the local geology. Cold side channels were correlated to contemporary and past lateral river mobility. Gravel bar seeps were related to the current development of bars and are more prevalent in wandering reaches than in single-bed incised and paved reaches. The logistic model was subsequently used to evaluate gravel bar seep variability in the past. The model suggests larger numbers of seeps in the mid-20th century when bar surface area was higher. Interannual variability in the occurrence and spatial extent of side seeps and gravel bar seeps appear to be related to groundwater level fluctuations. Cold side channels exhibited greater interannual stability

  15. Analysis of Water Level Fluctuations and TDS Variations in the Groundwater at Mewat (Nuh District, Haryana (India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyanka1

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is the major source for fulfilling the water needs of domestic and agricultural sectors in Mewat district, Haryana, India and its continuous use has put an enormous pressure on the groundwater resource, which along with low rainfall and variable geographical conditions lead to the declining water levels. The other problem of this area is high salinity which is reported intruding to the freshwater zone1. Taking into account the twin problem of declining water level and high salinity the study was taken up jointly by National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee; Sehgal Foundation, Gurgaon and Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee. Groundwater level and TDS (Total dissolved solids data for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons for the time period of 2011–2015 of 40 monitoring wells developed by Sehgal Foundation, Gurgaon was collected and analysed. It has been found that the groundwater level is decreasing in the area while TDS values show inconsistent trends during 2011-15. Further monitoring of the wells is continued to get the more information on water level and TDS which will help in facilitating the researchers in finding out the applicable solutions for the above problems in the Mewat, Haryana.

  16. Spatiotemporal groundwater level modeling using hybrid artificial intelligence-meshless method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Mousavi, Shahram

    2016-05-01

    Uncertainties of the field parameters, noise of the observed data and unknown boundary conditions are the main factors involved in the groundwater level (GL) time series which limit the modeling and simulation of GL. This paper presents a hybrid artificial intelligence-meshless model for spatiotemporal GL modeling. In this way firstly time series of GL observed in different piezometers were de-noised using threshold-based wavelet method and the impact of de-noised and noisy data was compared in temporal GL modeling by artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In the second step, both ANN and ANFIS models were calibrated and verified using GL data of each piezometer, rainfall and runoff considering various input scenarios to predict the GL at one month ahead. In the final step, the simulated GLs in the second step of modeling were considered as interior conditions for the multiquadric radial basis function (RBF) based solve of governing partial differential equation of groundwater flow to estimate GL at any desired point within the plain where there is not any observation. In order to evaluate and compare the GL pattern at different time scales, the cross-wavelet coherence was also applied to GL time series of piezometers. The results showed that the threshold-based wavelet de-noising approach can enhance the performance of the modeling up to 13.4%. Also it was found that the accuracy of ANFIS-RBF model is more reliable than ANN-RBF model in both calibration and validation steps.

  17. A method to improve the stability and accuracy of ANN- and SVM-based time series models for long-term groundwater level predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Heesung; Hyun, Yunjung; Ha, Kyoochul; Lee, Kang-Kun; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-05-01

    The prediction of long-term groundwater level fluctuations is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources and to assess the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on groundwater resources. In the present study, a weighted error function approach was utilised to improve the performance of artificial neural network (ANN)- and support vector machine (SVM)-based recursive prediction models for the long-term prediction of groundwater levels in response to rainfall. The developed time series models were applied to groundwater level data from 5 groundwater-monitoring stations in South Korea. The results demonstrated that the weighted error function approach can improve the stability and accuracy of recursive prediction models, especially for ANN models. The comparison of the model performance showed that the recursive prediction performance of the SVM was superior to the performance of the ANN in this case study.

  18. Enabling Solar Flare Forecasting at an Unprecedented Level: the FLARECAST Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Pariat, Etienne; Massone, Anna Maria; Vilmer, Nicole; Jackson, David; Buchlin, Eric; Csillaghy, Andre; Bommier, Veronique; Kontogiannis, Ioannis; Gallagher, Peter; Gontikakis, Costis; Guennou, Chloé; Murray, Sophie; Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Alingery, Pablo; Baudin, Frederic; Benvenuto, Federico; Bruggisser, Florian; Florios, Konstantinos; Guerra, Jordan; Park, Sung-Hong; Perasso, Annalisa; Piana, Michele; Sathiapal, Hanna; Soldati, Marco; Von Stachelski, Samuel; Argoudelis, Vangelis; Caminade, Stephane

    2016-07-01

    We attempt a brief but informative description of the Flare Likelihood And Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST) project, European Commission's first large-scale investment to explore the limits of reliability and accuracy for the forecasting of major solar flares. The consortium, objectives, and first results of the project - featuring an openly accessible, interactive flare forecasting facility by the end of 2017 - will be outlined. In addition, we will refer to the so-called "explorative research" element of project, aiming to connect solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and possibly pave the way for CME, or eruptive flare, prediction. We will also emphasize the FLARECAST modus operandi, namely the diversity of expertise within the consortium that independently aims to science, infrastructure development and dissemination, both to stakeholders and to the general public. Concluding, we will underline that the FLARECAST project responds squarely to the joint COSPAR - ILWS Global Roadmap to shield society from the adversities of space weather, addressing its primary goal and, in particular, its Research Recommendations 1, 2 and 4, Teaming Recommendations II and III, and Collaboration Recommendations A, B, and D. The FLARECAST project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 640216.

  19. Optimal level of groundwater charge to promote rainwater usage for irrigation in rural Beijing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    X. Liang (Xiao); M.P. van Dijk (Meine Pieter)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractAbstract: Since groundwater is diminishing rapidly in rural Beijing, rainwater harvesting for irrigation is being promoted. As the cost of pumping up groundwater is low, farmers have few incentives to use rainwater. To promote the consumption of rainwater, the Beijing Water Authority may

  20. Microbial Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) and herbicide mineralization potential in groundwater affected by agricultural land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janniche, Gry Sander; Spliid, Henrik; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2012-10-01

    Diffuse groundwater pollution from agricultural land use may impact the microbial groundwater community, which was investigated as Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) using EcoPlate™. Water was sampled from seven piezometers and a spring in a small agricultural catchment with diffuse herbicide and nitrate pollution. Based on the Shannon-Wiener and Simpson's diversity indices the diversity in the microbial communities was high. The response from the EcoPlates™ showed which substrates support groundwater bacteria, and all 31 carbon sources were utilized by organisms from at least one water sample. However, only nine carbon sources were utilized by all water samples: D-Mannitol, N-acetyl-D-glucosamine, putrescine, D-galacturonic acid, itaconic acid, 4-hydroxy benzoic acid, tween 40, tween 80, and L-asparagine. In all water samples the microorganisms preferred D-mannitol, D-galacturonic acid, tween 40, and 4-hydroxy benzoic acid as substrates, whereas none preferred 2-hydroxy benzoic acid, α-D-lactose, D,L-α-glycerol phosphate, α-ketobutyric acid, L-threonine and glycyl-L-glutamic acid. Principal Component Analysis of the CLPP's clustered the most agriculturally affected groundwater samples, indicating that the agricultural land use affects the groundwater microbial communities. Furthermore, the ability to mineralize atrazine and isoproturon, which have been used in the catchment, was also associated with this cluster.

  1. Global assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise in topography-limited and recharge-limited coastal groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Holly A.; Russoniello, Christopher J.; Byron, Lindsay A.

    2013-04-01

    Impacts of rising sea level on the hydraulic balance between aquifers and the ocean threaten fresh water resources and aquatic ecosystems along many world coastlines. Understanding the vulnerability of groundwater systems to these changes and the primary factors that determine the magnitude of system response is critical to developing effective management and adaptation plans in coastal zones. We assessed the vulnerability of two types of groundwater systems, recharge-limited and topography-limited, to changes caused by sea-level rise over a range of hydrogeologic settings. Vulnerability in this context is defined by the rate and magnitude of salinization of coastal aquifers and changes in groundwater flow to the sea. Two-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and salt transport simulations indicate that the response of recharge-limited systems is largely minimal, whereas topography-limited systems are vulnerable for various combinations of permeability, vertical anisotropy in permeability, and recharge. World coastlines were classified according to system type as a vulnerability indicator. Results indicate that approximately 70% of world coastlines may be topography-limited, though variability in hydrogeologic conditions strongly affects classification. Future recharge and sea-level rise scenarios have much less influence on the proportion of vulnerable coastlines than differences in permeability, distance to a hydraulic divide, and recharge, indicating that hydrogeologic properties and setting are more important factors to consider in determining system type than uncertainties in the magnitude of sea-level rise and hydrologic shifts associated with future climate change.

  2. A Study of the Groundwater Level Spatial Variability in the Messara Valley of Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varouchakis, E. A.; Hristopulos, D. T.; Karatzas, G. P.

    2009-04-01

    The island of Crete (Greece) has a dry sub-humid climate and marginal groundwater resources, which are extensively used for agricultural activities and human consumption. The Messara valley is located in the south of the Heraklion prefecture, it covers an area of 398 km2, and it is the largest and most productive valley of the island. Over-exploitation during the past thirty (30) years has led to a dramatic decrease of thirty five (35) meters in the groundwater level. Possible future climatic changes in the Mediterranean region, potential desertification, population increase, and extensive agricultural activity generate concern over the sustainability of the water resources of the area. The accurate estimation of the water table depth is important for an integrated groundwater resource management plan. This study focuses on the Mires basin of the Messara valley for reasons of hydro-geological data availability and geological homogeneity. The research goal is to model and map the spatial variability of the basin's groundwater level accurately. The data used in this study consist of seventy (70) piezometric head measurements for the hydrological year 2001-2002. These are unevenly distributed and mostly concentrated along a temporary river that crosses the basin. The range of piezometric heads varies from an extreme low value of 9.4 meters above sea level (masl) to 62 masl, for the wet period of the year (October to April). An initial goal of the study is to develop spatial models for the accurate generation of static maps of groundwater level. At a second stage, these maps should extend the models to dynamic (space-time) situations for the prediction of future water levels. Preliminary data analysis shows that the piezometric head variations are not normally distributed. Several methods including Box-Cox transformation and a modified version of it, transgaussian Kriging, and Gaussian anamorphosis have been used to obtain a spatial model for the piezometric head. A

  3. Development of a model to simulate groundwater inundation induced by sea-level rise and high tides in Honolulu, Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habel, Shellie; Fletcher, Charles H; Rotzoll, Kolja; El-Kadi, Aly I

    2017-05-01

    Many of the world's largest cities face risk of sea-level rise (SLR) induced flooding owing to their limited elevations and proximities to the coastline. Within this century, global mean sea level is expected to reach magnitudes that will exceed the ground elevation of some built infrastructure. The concurrent rise of coastal groundwater will produce additional sources of inundation resulting from narrowing and loss of the vertical unsaturated subsurface space. This has implications for the dense network of buried and low-lying infrastructure that exists across urban coastal zones. Here, we describe a modeling approach that simulates narrowing of the unsaturated space and groundwater inundation (GWI) generated by SLR-induced lifting of coastal groundwater. The methodology combines terrain modeling, groundwater monitoring, estimation of tidal influence, and numerical groundwater-flow modeling to simulate future flood scenarios considering user-specified tide stages and magnitudes of SLR. We illustrate the value of the methodology by applying it to the heavily urbanized and low-lying Waikiki area of Honolulu, Hawaii. Results indicate that SLR of nearly 1 m generates GWI across 23% of the 13 km(2) study area, threatening $5 billion of taxable real estate and 48 km of roadway. Analysis of current conditions reveals that 86% of 259 active cesspool sites in the study area are likely inundated. This suggests that cesspool effluent is currently entering coastal groundwater, which not only leads to degradation of coastal environments, but also presents a future threat to public health as GWI would introduce effluent at the ground surface. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Anomalous frequency characteristics of groundwater levels before major earthquakes in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-H. Chen

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Unusual decreases in water levels were consistently observed in 78% (=42/54 of the wells in the Choshuichi Alluvial Fan of central Taiwan roughly 150 days before the Chi-Chi earthquake (M = 7.6 on 20 September 1999 when the influences of barometric pressure, earth tides, precipitation and artificial pumping were removed. Variations in groundwater levels measured in the anomalous wells between 1 August 1997 and 19 September 1999, the time period covering the unusual decreases, were transferred into the frequency domain to examine anomalous frequency bands associated with the Chi-Chi earthquake. Analytical results show that amplitudes at the frequency band between 0.02 day−1 and 0.04 day−1 were generally maintained at the low stage and were enhanced in the few weeks before the Chi-Chi earthquake. Variations in amplitude within this particular frequency band were further examined in association with earthquakes (M > 6 between 1 August 1997 and 31 December 2009. Enhanced amplitude phenomena are consistently observed prior to the other two earthquakes (the Rei-Li and Ming-Jian earthquakes during the 12.5 yr, which sheds a promising light on research into precursors of strong earthquakes when combined with other geophysical observations such as geomagnetic anomalies and crustal displacements.

  5. Using Hydrologic Data from Africa in a Senior-Level Course in Groundwater Hydrology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silliman, S. E.

    2010-12-01

    Ongoing research efforts in Benin, West Africa, and Uganda, East Africa, have provided substantial data sets involving groundwater quality, applied geophysics, water use, and response of local populations / government agencies to challenges related to water development, protection and management. Ranging from characterization of coastal salt-water encroachment to a major well field to nitrate and microbial contamination of rural water supplies, these data sets were developed by interdisciplinary / international teams that included both undergraduate and graduate students. The present discussion focuses on the integration of the resulting data sets into a senior-level (and lower-level graduate student) course in Groundwater Hydrology. The data sets are employed in multiple ways, including: (i) support of concepts introduced during lectures, (ii) problem sets involving analysis of the data, and (iii) foundation material for open-ended discussions on comparative water resource strategies in developed and developing countries. Most significant in terms of the use of these data sets to advance educational opportunities, the African case studies have been integrated into semester-long projects completed by teams of students as a significant component of their final grade as well as one of their engineering design experiences used to fulfill ABET requirements. During the 2009-2010 academic year, these data sets (as well as published data bases by other agencies) were used by individual groups to design water development strategies for rural villages. During the present semester, two teams of students are pursuing long-term sustainability analyses, the first focused on an aquifer system in northern Indiana (USA) and the second focused on a coastal aquifer system serving Cotonou, Benin. The goal of pursuing these parallel projects is to illustrate to the students the similarities and differences involved in water resource management / protection in different parts of the

  6. Long-term (1930-2010) trends in groundwater levels in Texas: influences of soils, landcover and water use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, Sriroop; Ale, Srinivasulu

    2014-08-15

    Rapid groundwater depletion has raised grave concerns about sustainable development in many parts of Texas, as well as in other parts of the world. Previous hydrologic investigations on groundwater levels in Texas were conducted mostly on aquifer-specific basis, and hence lacked state-wide panoramic view. The aim of this study was to present a qualitative overview of long-term (1930-2010) trends in groundwater levels in Texas and identify spatial patterns by applying different statistical (boxplots, correlation-regression, hierarchical cluster analysis) and geospatial techniques (Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association) on 136,930 groundwater level observations from Texas Water Development Board's database. State-wide decadal median water-levels declined from about 14 m from land surface in the 1930s to about 36 m in the 2000s. Number of counties with deeper median water-levels (water-level depth>100 m) increased from 2 to 13 between 1930s and 2000s, accompanied by a decrease in number of counties having shallower median water-levels (water-level depthlandcover, geology and soil properties distinguished Texas Panhandle from GMA 8. Irrigated agriculture is the major cause of depletion in the Texas Panhandle as compared to increasing urbanization in GMA 8. Overall our study indicated that use of robust spatial and statistical methods can reveal important details about the trends in water-level changes and shed lights on the associated factors. Due to very generic nature, techniques used in this study can also be applied to other areas with similar eco-hydrologic issues to identify regions that warrant future management actions.

  7. Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

    2017-09-01

    A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

  8. Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

    2017-03-01

    A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

  9. Interim Status Groundwater Monitoring Plan for Low-Level Waste Management Areas 1 to 4, RCRA Facilities, Hanford,Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dresel, P Evan

    2004-10-25

    This document describes the monitoring plan to meet the requirements for interim status groundwater monitoring at Hanford Site low-level waste burial grounds as specified by 40 CFR 265, incorporated by reference in WAC 173-303-400. The monitoring will take place at four separate low-level waste management areas in the 200-West and 200-East Areas, in the central part of the site. This plan replaces the previous monitoring plan.

  10. Remote Sensing-Derived Water Extent and Level to Constrain Hydraulic Flood Forecasting Models: Opportunities and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimaldi, Stefania; Li, Yuan; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Walker, Jeffrey P.

    2016-09-01

    Accurate, precise and timely forecasts of flood wave arrival time, depth and velocity at each point of the floodplain are essential to reduce damage and save lives. Current computational capabilities support hydraulic models of increasing complexity over extended catchments. Yet a number of sources of uncertainty (e.g., input and boundary conditions, implementation data) may hinder the delivery of accurate predictions. Field gauging data of water levels and discharge have traditionally been used for hydraulic model calibration, validation and real-time constraint. However, the discrete spatial distribution of field data impedes the testing of the model skill at the two-dimensional scale. The increasing availability of spatially distributed remote sensing (RS) observations of flood extent and water level offers the opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of the predictive capability of hydraulic models. The adequate use of the large amount of information offered by RS observations triggers a series of challenging questions on the resolution, accuracy and frequency of acquisition of RS observations; on RS data processing algorithms; and on calibration, validation and data assimilation protocols. This paper presents a review of the availability of RS observations of flood extent and levels, and their use for calibration, validation and real-time constraint of hydraulic flood forecasting models. A number of conclusions and recommendations for future research are drawn with the aim of harmonising the pace of technological developments and their applications.

  11. Plant traits in response to raising groundwater levels in wetland restoration: evidence from three case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van P.M.; Grootjans, A.P.; Sorrell, B.K.; Bekker, R.M.; Bakker, C.; Ozinga, W.A.

    2006-01-01

    Question: Is raising groundwater tables successful as a wetland restoration strategy? Location: Kennemer dunes, The Netherlands; Moksloot dunes, The Netherlands and Bullock Creek fen, New Zealand. Methods: Generalizations were made by analysing soil dynamics and the responsiveness of integrative pla

  12. Plant traits in response to raising groundwater levels in wetland restoration : evidence from three case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, P.M. van; Grootjans, A.P.; Sorrell, B.K.; Bekker, R.M.; Bakker, C.; Ozinga, W.A.; Middleton, B.

    2006-01-01

    Question: Is raising groundwater tables successful as a wetland restoration strategy? Location: Kennemer dunes, The Netherlands; Moksloot dunes, The Netherlands and Bullock Creek fen, New Zealand. Methods: Generalizations were made by analysing soil dynamics and the responsiveness of integrative pla

  13. Influence of irrigation on the level, salinity and flow of groundwater at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-03-31

    Mar 31, 2010 ... Suitable internal subsurface drainage should be cleaned, ... Keywords: Drainage, irrigation and scheduling, soil water quality, water and salt balance ..... groundwater was pumped or bailed out of the piezometers and.

  14. Environmental impact of radionuclide migration in groundwater from a low-intermediate level radioactive waste repository

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The radionuclide migration from a certain Chinese repository withlow-intermediate level radioactive solid waste is studied. The migration in groundwater is analyzed and computed in detail. Under presumption of normal releasing, or the bottom of the repository has been marinated for one month with precipitation reaching 600 mm once and a 6m aerated zone exists, a prediction for 7 radionuclides is conducted. It shows that the aerated zone is the primary barrier for migration. The migration for radionuclides 60Co, 137Cs, 90Sr, 63Ni, etc. will be retarded in it within 500 years. The concentration of 239Pu will be decreased by amount of 6 order. Only 3H and 14C can migrate through the aerated zone. The radionuclides that go through the aerated zone and enter the aquifer will exist in spring, stream and sea. Based on this, the intake dose by residents in different age group resulting from drinking contaminated spring water, eating seafood is calculated. The results showed that the impact of the repository to the key resident group is lower than the limit in national repository regulation standard. This complies with the repository management target.

  15. Simulation and assessment of groundwater flow and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2003 through 2013: Chapter B of Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Perry M.; Roth, Jason L.; Trost, Jared J.; Christenson, Catherine A.; Diekoff, Aliesha L.; Erickson, Melinda L.

    2017-09-05

    Water levels during 2003 through 2013 were less than mean water levels for the period 1925–2013 for several lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area in Minnesota. Previous periods of low lake-water levels generally were correlated with periods with less than mean precipitation. Increases in groundwater withdrawals and land-use changes have brought into question whether or not recent (2003–13) lake-water-level declines are solely caused by decreases in precipitation. A thorough understanding of groundwater and surface-water exchanges was needed to assess the effect of water-management decisions on lake-water levels. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Council and the Minnesota Department of Health, developed and calibrated a three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model representing 2003–13 mean hydrologic conditions to assess groundwater and lake-water exchanges, and the effects of groundwater withdrawals and precipitation on water levels of 96 lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area.Lake-water budgets for the calibrated groundwater-flow model indicated that groundwater is flowing into lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area and lakes are providing water to underlying aquifers. Lake-water outflow to the simulated groundwater system was a major outflow component for Big Marine Lake, Lake Elmo, Snail Lake, and White Bear Lake, accounting for 45 to 64 percent of the total outflows from the lakes. Evaporation and transpiration from the lake surface ranged from 19 to 52 percent of the total outflow from the four lakes. Groundwater withdrawals and precipitation were varied from the 2003‒13 mean values used in the calibrated model (30-percent changes in groundwater withdrawals and 5-percent changes in precipitation) for hypothetical scenarios to assess the effects of groundwater withdrawals and precipitation on water budgets and levels in Big Marine Lake, Snail Lake

  16. Groundwater level and specific conductance monitoring at Marine Corps Base, Camp Lejeune, Onslow County, North Carolina, 2007-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSwain, Kristen Bukowski

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Marine Corps Base, Camp Lejeune, monitored water-resources conditions in the surficial, Castle Hayne, Peedee, and Black Creek aquifers in Onslow County, North Carolina, from November 2007 through September 2008. To comply with North Carolina Central Coastal Plain Capacity Use Area regulations, large-volume water suppliers in Onslow County must reduce their dependency on the Black Creek aquifer as a water-supply source and have, instead, proposed using the Castle Hayne aquifer as an alternative water-supply source. The Marine Corps Base, Camp Lejeune, uses water obtained from the unregulated surficial and Castle Hayne aquifers for drinking-water supply. Water-level data were collected and field measurements of physical properties were made at 19 wells at 8 locations spanning the Marine Corps Base, Camp Lejeune. These wells were instrumented with near real-time monitoring equipment to collect hourly measurements of water level. Additionally, specific conductance and water temperature were measured hourly in 16 of the 19 wells. Graphs are presented relating altitude of groundwater level to water temperature and specific conductance measurements collected during the study, and the relative vertical gradients between aquifers are discussed. The period-of-record normal (25th to 75th percentile) monthly mean groundwater levels at two well clusters were compared to median monthly mean groundwater levels at these same well clusters for 2008 to determine groundwater-resources conditions. In 2008, water levels were below normal in the 3 wells at one of the well clusters and were normal in 4 wells at the other cluster.

  17. DeMand: A tool for evaluating and comparing device-level demand and supply forecast models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neupane, Bijay; Siksnys, Laurynas; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2016-01-01

    datasets, forecast models, features, and errors measures, thus semi-automating most of the steps of the forecast model selection and validation process. This paper presents the architecture and data model of the DeMand system; and provides a use-case example on how one particular forecast model...

  18. Assessment of fluoride level in groundwater and prevalence of dental fluorosis in Didwana block of Nagaur district, Central Rajasthan, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arif, M; Husain, I; Hussain, J; Kumar, S

    2013-10-01

    In India, for the high concentration of fluoride in groundwater, people are at risk of dental fluorosis. The problem is common in various states of India. The condition in Rajasthan is worse where all districts have such a problem. To study the fluoride concentration in groundwater and prevalence of dental fluorosis in Didwana block of Nagaur district, Central Rajasthan, India. The fluoride concentration in water of 54 villages was measured electrochemically, using fluoride ion selective electrode. Dental fluorosis was assessed in 1136 people residing in study area by Dean's classification for dental fluorosis. The fluoride concentration in groundwater in studied sites ranged from 0.5 to 8.5 mg/L. The concentration of fluoride was more than the maximum permissible limit set by WHO and Bureau of Indian Standards (1 mg/L) in 48 groundwater sources. Of 1136 people studied, 788 (69.4%; 95% CI: 66.7%-72.1%) had dental fluoros---252 had mild and 74 had severe dental fluorosis. High level of fluoride in drinking water of Didwana block of Nagaur district, Central Rajasthan, India, causes dental fluorosis in most people in the region and is an important health problem that needs prompt attention.

  19. Assessment of Fluoride Level in Groundwater and Prevalence of Dental Fluorosis in Didwana Block of Nagaur District, Central Rajasthan, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Kumar

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In India, for the high concentration of fluoride in groundwater, people are at risk of dental fluorosis. The problem is common in various states of India. The condition in Rajasthan is worse where all districts have such a problem.Objective: To study the fluoride concentration in groundwater and prevalence of dental fluorosis in Didwana block of Nagaur district, Central Rajasthan, India.Methods: The fluoride concentration in water of 54 villages was measured electrochemically, using fluoride ion selective electrode. Dental fluorosis was assessed in 1136 people residing in study area by Dean's classification for dental fluorosis.Results: The fluoride concentration in groundwater in studied sites ranged from 0.5 to 8.5 mg/L. The concentration of fluoride was more than the maximum permissible limit set by WHO and Bureau of Indian Standards (1 mg/L in 48 groundwater sources. Of 1136 people studied, 788 (69.4%; 95% CI: 66.7%–72.1% had dental fluorosis—252 had mild and 74 had severe dental fluorosis.Conclusion: High level of fluoride in drinking water of Didwana block of Nagaur district, Central Rajasthan, India, causes dental fluorosis in most people in the region and is an important health problem that needs prompt attention.

  20. Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Perry M.; Trost, Jared J.; Erickson, Melinda L.

    2016-10-19

    OverviewThis study assessed lake-water levels and regional and local groundwater and surface-water exchanges near northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes applying three approaches: statistical analysis, field study, and groundwater-flow modeling.  Statistical analyses of lake levels were completed to assess the effect of physical setting and climate on lake-level fluctuations of selected lakes. A field study of groundwater and surface-water interactions in selected lakes was completed to (1) estimate potential percentages of surface-water contributions to well water across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, (2) estimate general ages for waters extracted from the wells, and (3) assess groundwater inflow to lakes and lake-water outflow to aquifers downgradient from White Bear Lake.  Groundwater flow was simulated using a steady-state, groundwater-flow model to assess regional groundwater and surface-water exchanges and the effects of groundwater withdrawals, climate, and other factors on water levels of northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes.

  1. Geostatistical interpolation model selection based on ArcGIS and spatio-temporal variability analysis of groundwater level in piedmont plains, northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yong; Gu, Xiaomin; Yin, Shiyang; Shao, Jingli; Cui, Yali; Zhang, Qiulan; Niu, Yong

    2016-01-01

    Based on the geo-statistical theory and ArcGIS geo-statistical module, datas of 30 groundwater level observation wells were used to estimate the decline of groundwater level in Beijing piedmont. Seven different interpolation methods (inverse distance weighted interpolation, global polynomial interpolation, local polynomial interpolation, tension spline interpolation, ordinary Kriging interpolation, simple Kriging interpolation and universal Kriging interpolation) were used for interpolating groundwater level between 2001 and 2013. Cross-validation, absolute error and coefficient of determination (R(2)) was applied to evaluate the accuracy of different methods. The result shows that simple Kriging method gave the best fit. The analysis of spatial and temporal variability suggest that the nugget effects from 2001 to 2013 were increasing, which means the spatial correlation weakened gradually under the influence of human activities. The spatial variability in the middle areas of the alluvial-proluvial fan is relatively higher than area in top and bottom. Since the changes of the land use, groundwater level also has a temporal variation, the average decline rate of groundwater level between 2007 and 2013 increases compared with 2001-2006. Urban development and population growth cause over-exploitation of residential and industrial areas. The decline rate of the groundwater level in residential, industrial and river areas is relatively high, while the decreasing of farmland area and development of water-saving irrigation reduce the quantity of water using by agriculture and decline rate of groundwater level in agricultural area is not significant.

  2. Maps showing ground-water levels, springs, and depth to ground water, Basin and Range Province, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, B.T.; Bedinger, M.S.; Mulvihill, D.A.; Mikels, John; Langer, W.H.

    1984-01-01

    This report on ground-water levels, springs, and depth to ground water in the Basin and Range province of Texas (see index map) was prepared as part of a program of the U.S. Geological Survey to identify prospective regions for further study relative to isolation of high-level nuclear waste (Bedinger, Sargent, and Reed, 1984), utilizing program guidelines defined in Sargent and Bedinger (1984). Also included in this report are selected references on pertinent geologic and hydrologic studies of the region. Other map reports in this series contain detailed data on ground-water quality, surface distribution of selected rock types, tectonic conditions, areal geophysics, Pleistocene lakes and marshes, and mineral and energy resources.

  3. Time prediction of an onset of shallow landslides based on the monitoring of the groundwater level and the surface displacement at different locations on a sandy model slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasahara, Katsuo

    2016-04-01

    Location of monitoring of the deformation and the groundwater level in a slope is important for time-prediction of an onset of shallow landslides based on the monitoring. The analysis of the monitored data of the surface displacement and the groundwater level at different locations in sandy model slope under artificial rainfall was conducted in this study. The monitored data showed that the surface displacement increased with the increase of the groundwater level significantly. Then the analysis of the monitored data revealed that the relation between the surface displacement and the groundwater level can be modified as hyperbolic curve. The surface displacement grew larger and maximum groundwater level was smaller at farther location from the toe of the slope. Time-prediction of an onset of a landslide based on the monitored data at different location on the slope was proposed as following procedures. (1) To make a regression equation for the relation between the surface displacement and the groundwater level based on the monitored data at any time before the failure, (2) To make a regression equation for the relation between the time and the groundwater level based on the same data with (1), and (3) To incorporate the equation for the relation between the time and the groundwater level into that between the surface displacement and the groundwater level to derive the time - the surface displacement relation. (4) To derive the time - the inverse of the surface displacement velocity from the equation for the time - the surface displacement relation. The equation for the time - the surface displacement and the equation for the time - the inverse of the surface displacement velocity could simulate the actual phenomena of the slope well based on the monitored data at any location on the model slope.

  4. 高精度地下水位监测仪%High Precision Groundwater Level Monitor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟佳迅; 庹先国; 王洪辉; 张兆义; 张贵宇

    2012-01-01

    Through studying the change of groundwater on the influence of the geological hazards, such as landslide, a high precision groundwater level monitor was designed. The monitor took advantage of static-pressure water level sensor to get ground-water level information. By means of sophisticated I/V conversion, high precision A/D conversion, high stability reference voltage and cooperating with curve fitting method, it realized the high precision collection of groundwater level information, and the system error was less than 1 mm. In the actual application, the instrument highlighted its advantages such as high precision, stable performance, small volume,installation flexible,convenient operation,etc. The monitor can be applied to all kinds of monitoring wells very well,and used in geological disaster monitoring.%通过地下水位变化对滑坡等地质灾害的影响研究,设计了一种高精度地下水位监测仪器.仪器采用静压力式水位传感器获取地下水位信息,通过精密I/V转换、高精度A/D转换及高稳定性基准电压,并配合曲线拟合方法,实现了地下水位信息的高精度采集,误差≤1 mm.在实际应用中,仪器突出了精度高、性能稳定、体积小、安装灵活、操作方便等优点,对各类监测井具有很强的适应性,适合用于地质灾害监测.

  5. Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masciopinto, Costantino; Liso, Isabella Serena

    2016-11-01

    An assessment of sea intrusion into coastal aquifers as a consequence of local sea-level rise (LSLR) due to climate change was carried out at Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. The interpolation of sea-level measurements at three tide-gauge stations was performed during the period of 2000 to 2014. The best fit of measurements shows an increasing rate of LSLR ranging from 4.4mm/y to 8.8mm/y, which will result in a maximum LSLR of approximately 2m during the 22nd century. The local rate of sea-level rise matches recent 21st and 22nd century projections of mean global sea-level rise determined by other researchers, which include increased melting rates of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the effect of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the quantity of stored land water. Subsequently, Ghyben-Herzberg's equation for the freshwater/saltwater interface was rewritten in order to determine the decrease in groundwater discharge due to the maximum LSLR. Groundwater flow simulations and ArcGIS elaborations of digital elevation models of the coast provided input data for the Ghyben-Herzberg calculation under the assumption of head-controlled systems. The progression of seawater intrusion due to LSLR suggests an impressive depletion of available groundwater discharge during the 22nd century, perhaps as much as 16.1% of current groundwater pumping for potable water in Salento. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Application of Time-Series Model to Predict Groundwater Dynamic in Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUAN Zhaoqing; LIU Guihua; YAN Baixing

    2011-01-01

    To study the groundwater dynamic in the typical region of Sanjiang Plain,long-term groundwater level observation data in the Honghe State Farm were collected and analyzed in this paper.The seasonal and long-term groundwater dynamic was explored.From 1996 to 2008,groundwater level kept declining due to intensive exploitation of groundwater resources for rice irrigation.A decline of nearly 5 m was found for almost all the monitoring wells.A time-series method was established to model the groundwater dynamic.Modeled results by time-series model showed that the groundwater level in this region would keep declining according to the current exploitation intensity.A total dropdown of 1.07 m would occur from 2009 to 2012.Time-series model can be used to model and forecast the groundwater dynamic with high accuracy.Measures including control on groundwater exploitation amount and application of water saving irrigation technique should be taken to prevent the continuing declining of groundwater in the Sanjiang Plain.

  7. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chieh Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.

  8. Estimating seepage flux from ephemeral stream channels using surface water and groundwater level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noorduijn, Saskia L.; Shanafield, Margaret; Trigg, Mark A.; Harrington, Glenn A.; Cook, Peter G.; Peeters, L.

    2014-02-01

    Seepage flux from ephemeral streams can be an important component of the water balance in arid and semiarid regions. An emerging technique for quantifying this flux involves the measurement and simulation of a flood wave as it moves along an initially dry channel. This study investigates the usefulness of including surface water and groundwater data to improve model calibration when using this technique. We trialed this approach using a controlled flow event along a 1387 m reach of artificial stream channel. Observations were then simulated using a numerical model that combines the diffusion-wave approximation of the Saint-Vénant equations for streamflow routing, with Philip's infiltration equation and the groundwater flow equation. Model estimates of seepage flux for the upstream segments of the study reach, where streambed hydraulic conductivities were approximately 101 m d-1, were on the order of 10-4 m3 d-1 m-2. In the downstream segments, streambed hydraulic conductivities were generally much lower but highly variable (˜10-3 to 10-7 m d-1). A Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showed that the flood front timing, surface water stage, groundwater heads, and the predicted streamflow seepage were most influenced by specific yield. Furthermore, inclusion of groundwater data resulted in a higher estimate of total seepage estimates than if the flood front timing were used alone.

  9. 锌离子对浅层地下水水质影响预测研究%Zinc Ion Impact on Shallow Groundwater Quality Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙静

    2012-01-01

      根据地下水动力学原理及溶质在地下含水层中的运移机理,采用Visual MODFLOW对矸石山的污染进行了可视化模拟预测,获取了主要污染物质锌离子在40年内对地下水污染程度和范围。结果表明,矸石山淋溶液中的锌离子至40年后将对浅层地下水水质构成威胁,超过地下水环境质量Ⅱ类标准。%  In accordance with the principle of groundwater dynamics and solute transport mechanism in underground aquifers using Visual MODFLOW visual simulation and prediction of the pollution of the waste dump, getting the main pollutants of zinc ions in 40 years to the groundwater contamination andrange. The results show that the waste dump leaching of zinc ions in the solution to 40 years wil pose a threat to the water quality of shal ow groundwater exceed Groundwater Environmental Quality II standard.

  10. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

  11. Hydrogeology, groundwater levels, and generalized potentiometric-surface map of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system, 2010–14, in the northern Green River structural basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartos, Timothy T.; Hallberg, Laura L.; Miller, Cheryl E.

    2015-07-14

    In cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, groundwater levels in wells located in the northern Green River Basin in Wyoming, an area of ongoing energy development, were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2010 to 2014. The wells were completed in the uppermost aquifers of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system, which is a complex regional aquifer system that provides water to most wells in the area. Except for near perennial streams, groundwater-level altitudes in most aquifers generally decreased with increasing depth, indicating a general downward potential for groundwater movement in the study area. Drilled depth of the wells was observed as a useful indicator of depth to groundwater such that deeper wells typically had a greater depth to groundwater. Comparison of a subset of wells included in this study that had historical groundwater levels that were measured during the 1960s and 1970s and again between 2012 and 2014 indicated that, overall, most of the wells showed a net decline in groundwater levels.

  12. Perennial filter strips reduce nitrate levels in soil and shallow groundwater after grassland-to-cropland conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaobo; Helmers, Matthew J; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Kolka, Randy; Tomer, Mark D

    2010-01-01

    Many croplands planted to perennial grasses under the Conservation Reserve Program are being returned to crop production, and with potential consequences for water quality. The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of grassland-to-cropland conversion on nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) concentrations in soil and shallow groundwater and to assess the potential for perennial filter strips (PFS) to mitigate increases in NO3-N levels. The study, conducted at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge (NSNWR) in central Iowa, consisted of a balanced incomplete block design with 12 watersheds and four watershed-scale treatments having different proportions and topographic positions of PFS planted in native prairie grasses: 100% rowcrop, 10% PFS (toeslope position), 10% PFS (distributed on toe and as contour strips), and 20 PFS (distributed on toe and as contour strips). All treatments were established in fall 2006 on watersheds that were under bromegrass (Bromus L.) cover for at least 10 yr. Nonperennial areas were maintained under a no-till 2-yr corn (Zea mays L.)--soybean [Glycine max. (L.) Merr.] rotation since spring 2007. Suction lysimeter and shallow groundwater wells located at upslope and toeslope positions were sampled monthly during the growing season to determine NO3-N concentration from 2005 to 2008. The results indicated significant increases in NO3-N concentration in soil and groundwater following grassland-to-cropland conversion. Nitrate-nitrogen levels in the vadose zone and groundwater under PFS were lower compared with 100% cropland, with the most significant differences occurring at the toeslope position. During the years following conversion, PFS mitigated increases in subsurface nitrate, but long-term monitoring is needed to observe and understand the full response to land-use conversion.

  13. A temporal and spatial analysis of ground-water levels for effective monitoring in Huron County, Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtschlag, David J.; Sweat, M.J.

    1999-01-01

    Quarterly water-level measurements were analyzed to assess the effectiveness of a monitoring network of 26 wells in Huron County, Michigan. Trends were identified as constant levels and autoregressive components were computed at all wells on the basis of data collected from 1993 to 1997, using structural time series analysis. Fixed seasonal components were identified at 22 wells and outliers were identified at 23 wells. The 95- percent confidence intervals were forecast for water-levels during the first and second quarters of 1998. Intervals in the first quarter were consistent with 92.3 percent of the measured values. In the second quarter, measured values were within the forecast intervals only 65.4 percent of the time. Unusually low precipitation during the second quarter is thought to have contributed to the reduced reliability of the second-quarter forecasts. Spatial interrelations among wells were investigated on the basis of the autoregressive components, which were filtered to create a set of innovation sequences that were temporally uncorrelated. The empirical covariance among the innovation sequences indicated both positive and negative spatial interrelations. The negative covariance components are considered to be physically implausible and to have resulted from random sampling error. Graphical modeling, a form of multivariate analysis, was used to model the covariance structure. Results indicate that only 29 of the 325 possible partial correlations among the water-level innovations were statistically significant. The model covariance matrix, corresponding to the model partial correlation structure, contained only positive elements. This model covariance was sequentially partitioned to compute a set of partial covariance matrices that were used to rank the effectiveness of the 26 monitoring wells from greatest to least. Results, for example, indicate that about 50 percent of the uncertainty of the water-level innovations currently monitored by the 26

  14. Geospatial Data Used in Water-Level and Land-Subsidence Studies in the Mojave River and Morongo Groundwater Basins for 2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — During 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and Morongo groundwater basins....

  15. Geospatial Data Used in Water-Level and Land-Subsidence Studies in the Mojave River and Morongo Groundwater Basins for 2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins....

  16. 基于PDL模型的城市化水平预测%Forecasting Urbanization Level Based on PDL Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁刚; 赵萍萍

    2005-01-01

    In the previous research, when the economic factor forecasting solution of Urbanization was used into practice, the users almost always ignored the effects of the lagged economic development factors. The accuracy of the forecasting should be decreased seriously by this way. In this paper, taking Gansu province as an example, the authors try to improve the forecasting accuracy on the basis of the unrestricted PDL (Polynomial Distributed Lag')Models. In the context, the ARIMA Models and CPPS software are also applied to finish the forecasting more accurately.

  17. A technique for estimating ground-water levels at sites in Rhode Island from observation-well data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socolow, Roy S.; Frimpter, Michael H.; Turtora, Michael; Bell, Richard W.

    1994-01-01

    Estimates of future high, median, and low ground- water levels are needed for engineering and architectural design decisions and for appropriate selection of land uses. For example, the failure of individual underground sewage-disposal systems due to high ground-water levels can be prevented if accurate water-level estimates are available. Estimates of extreme or average conditions are needed because short duration preconstruction obser- vations are unlikely to be adequately represen- tative. Water-level records for 40 U.S. Geological Survey observation wells in Rhode Island were used to describe and interpret water-level fluctuations. The maximum annual range of water levels average about 6 feet in sand and gravel and 11 feet in till. These data were used to develop equations for estimating future high, median, and low water levels on the basis of any one measurement at a site and records of water levels at observation wells used as indexes. The estimating technique relies on several assumptions about temporal and spatial variations: (1) Water levels will vary in the future as they have in the past, (2) Water levels fluctuate seasonally (3) Ground-water fluctuations are dependent on site geology, and (4) Water levels throughout Rhode Island are subject to similar precipitation and climate. Comparison of 6,697 estimates of high, median, and low water levels (depth to water level exceeded 95, 50, and 5 percent of the time, respectively) with the actual measured levels exceeded 95, 50, and 5 percent of the time at 14 sites unaffected by pumping and unknown reasons, yielded mean squared errors ranging from 0.34 to 1.53 square feet, 0.30 to 1.22 square feet, and 0.32 to 2.55 square feet, respectively. (USGS)

  18. Groundwater sustainability assessment in coastal aquifers

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    U A Lathashri; A Mahesha

    2016-08-01

    The present work investigates the response of shallow, coastal unconfined aquifers to anticipated overdraft conditions and climate change effect using numerical simulation. The groundwater flow model MODFLOW and variable density groundwater model SEAWAT are used for this investigation. The transmissivity and specific yield estimated from the existing database range from 10 to 810 m^2/day and 0.08% to 10.92% respectively. After successful calibration with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.80, the values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of the unconfined aquifer were set in the range 1.85–61.90 m/day and 0.006–0.24 respectively. After validating the model, it is applied for forecasting the aquifer’s response to anticipated future scenarios of groundwater draft, recharge rate and sea level rise. The findings of the study illustrate that saltwater intrusion is intensified in the area adjoining the tidal rivers, rather than that due to the sea alone. Of all the scenarios simulated, the immense negative impact on groundwater quality emerges due to overdraft conditions and reduced recharge with the areal extent of seawater intrusion exceeding about 67% (TDS>1 kg/m^3). The study also arrivesat the conclusion that, regional sea level rise of 1 mm/year has no impact on the groundwater dynamics of the aquifer.

  19. Vulnerability of topography-limited and recharge-limited groundwater systems to sea-level rise-induced salinization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, H. A.; Byron, L. A.; Feinson, L. S.; Voss, C. I.; Russoniello, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    The effects of rising sea level on the hydraulic balance between aquifers and the ocean threaten freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystems along many world coastlines. Understanding both the vulnerability of groundwater systems to these changes and the primary factors that determine the magnitude of system response is critical to developing effective management plans in coastal zones. The rate and magnitude of salinization of fresh groundwater due to lateral seawater intrusion and changes in groundwater flow to the sea were assessed over a range of hydrogeologic settings. A primary factor affecting vulnerability is whether the system is recharge-limited or topography-limited. Results of two-dimensional variable-density groundwater-flow and salt-transport simulations indicate that the response of recharge-limited systems is largely minimal, whereas topography-limited systems are vulnerable for various combinations of permeability, vertical anisotropy in permeability, and recharge. World coastlines were classified according to system type as a vulnerability indicator. Results indicate that more than 50 percent of world coastlines are topography-limited over the range of cases tested. Central coastal Bangladesh is an example of a primarily topography-limited system that is highly vulnerable to impacts of sea-level rise as a result of its low elevation, dense population, and extensive groundwater use. Complexities of geologic heterogeneity and salinization processes, including storm-surge overtopping and accelerated salinization rates due to pumping, were considered. Results indicate that geologic heterogeneity has a strong control on the current and evolving pattern of salinity. The process of lateral intrusion can be slow, such that the current salinity distribution may still be changing in response to past sea-level rise. Vertical intrusion from above, where it occurs, is faster, and pumping can accelerate both mechanisms. Bangladesh vulnerability analyses are

  20. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  1. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  2. Functional gene array-based analysis of microbial community structure in groundwaters with a gradient of contaminant levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waldron, P.J.; Wu, L.; Van Nostrand, J.D.; Schadt, C.W.; Watson, D.B.; Jardine, P.M.; Palumbo, A.V.; Hazen, T.C.; Zhou, J.

    2009-06-15

    To understand how contaminants affect microbial community diversity, heterogeneity, and functional structure, six groundwater monitoring wells from the Field Research Center of the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Remediation Science Program (ERSP; Oak Ridge, TN), with a wide range of pH, nitrate, and heavy metal contamination were investigated. DNA from the groundwater community was analyzed with a functional gene array containing 2006 probes to detect genes involved in metal resistance, sulfate reduction, organic contaminant degradation, and carbon and nitrogen cycling. Microbial diversity decreased in relation to the contamination levels of the wells. Highly contaminated wells had lower gene diversity but greater signal intensity than the pristine well. The microbial composition was heterogeneous, with 17-70% overlap between different wells. Metal-resistant and metal-reducing microorganisms were detected in both contaminated and pristine wells, suggesting the potential for successful bioremediation of metal-contaminated groundwaters. In addition, results of Mantel tests and canonical correspondence analysis indicate that nitrate, sulfate, pH, uranium, and technetium have a significant (p < 0.05) effect on microbial community structure. This study provides an overall picture of microbial community structure in contaminated environments with functional gene arrays by showing that diversity and heterogeneity can vary greatly in relation to contamination.

  3. Enhancing arsenic removal from groundwater at household level with naturally occurring iron

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anitha Kumari Sharma

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A supply of drinking water low in Arsenic (As prevents arsenic poisoning. The presence of high concentrations of iron (Fe in groundwater under the alluvial plains of the large rivers in Southeast Asia is a prerequisite for the simple removal of As. This study investigated the mechanisms and possibilities for enhancing As removal with naturally occurring Fe in a reliable, low cost and sustainable way. The results of the study show that As removal with Fe is greatly enhanced by the addition of an oxidizing agent (preferably KMnO4 immediately after the pumping of groundwater. Further enhancement of As removal in the presence of Fe can be achieved by adding a small volume of a concentrated basic solution of MnO4- and AlO2-, which has a combined oxidation, coagulation and buffering capacity. Best results were obtained when this solution was mixed with the groundwater immediately after its pumping until a pale pink color appeared. Maximum required reaction time was 10 minutes and subsequent filtration of the water was able to reduce the As concentration to near zero. Concentrations of MnO4- and AlO2- can be varied in the solution to achieve sufficient As removal to suit different Fe/As ratios and the presence of interfering co-occurring anions.

  4. Groundwater Management under Meteorological Drought Conditions in Aleshtar Plain, Lorestan Province, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soleimani Motlagh, M.; Ghasemian, D.; Winter, C.; Taie Semiromi, M.

    2013-12-01

    The lack of precipitation causes low soil moisture content and low groundwater recharge. The resulting shortage in precipitation propagates through the hydrological system, causing a drought in different segments of the hydrological system. The aim of this study was to provide efficient groundwater management techniques during drought situations in Aleshtar plain located in Lorestan province, Iran. With the purpose of finding solutions during drought conditions, first of all a groundwater model was constructed using MODFLOW with historical groundwater levels recorded from October 1982 to September 2010. By studying precipitation fluctuation over several times, four meteorological drought scenarios including wet, normal, moderate and severe drought were considered and then each drought option was imposed to the model separately and the reaction of aquifer was forecasted by both groundwater budget and level. Results showed that the groundwater budget will be dwindling under normal condition in which the plain receives the average precipitation. Similarly, the groundwater level and water balance would be decreasing under moderate and severe drought situations so that the groundwater budget is expected to be reduced 22.24 and 33.21 Mm3 under moderate and severe drought conditions respectively if it is extended for one hydrological year. Groundwater management techniques like cutting the groundwater abstraction by 38 percent will alleviate the impacts of normal condition and moderate drought while combined scenario consisting of reducing of the groundwater utilization to 38 percent and recharging the aquifer artificially will work and as a result, not only the dropping of the groundwater level will be controlled but it also becomes considerably positive. For instance, under the combined scenario, the groundwater balance will be raised up to 15.34 Mm3 in the case of one year long severe drought.

  5. Evaluation of seasonal ensemble forecasts in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tore Sinnes, Svein; Engeland, Kolbjørn; Langsholt, Elin; Roar Sælthun, Nils

    2017-04-01

    Throughout the winter and spring season, seasonal forecasts are used by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in order to assess the probability for sever floods or for low seasonal runoff volumes. The latter is especially important for hydropower production. The seasonal forecasts are generated by a set of 145 lumped, elevation distributed HBV models distributed all over Norway. The observed weather is used to establish the initial snow cover, soil moisture and groundwater levels in the HBV model. Subsequently, scenarios are created by using time series of observed weather the previous 50 years, creating a total of 50 ensembles. The predictability of this seasonal forecasting system depends therefore on the importance of the initial conditions, and in Norway the seasonal snow cover is especially important. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the seasonal forecasts of flood peaks and seasonal runoff volumes and especially to evaluate of the predictability depends on (i) catchment climatology and (ii) issue dates and lead times. For achieving these aims, evaluation criterions assessing reliability and sharpness were used. The results shows that the predictability is the highest for catchments where the spring runoff is dominated by snow melt. The predictability is the highest for the shortest lead times (up to 1 months ahead).The predictive performance is higher for runoff volumes than for the flood peaks.

  6. Development of nonlinear empirical models to forecast daily PM2.5 and ozone levels in three large Chinese cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Baolei; Cobourn, W. Geoffrey; Bai, Yuqi

    2016-12-01

    Empirical regression models for next-day forecasting of PM2.5 and O3 air pollution concentrations have been developed and evaluated for three large Chinese cities, Beijing, Nanjing and Guangzhou. The forecast models are empirical nonlinear regression models designed for use in an automated data retrieval and forecasting platform. The PM2.5 model includes an upwind air quality variable, PM24, to account for regional transport of PM2.5, and a persistence variable (previous day PM2.5 concentration). The models were evaluated in the hindcast mode with a two-year air quality and meteorological data set using a leave-one-month-out cross validation method, and in the forecast mode with a one-year air quality and forecasted weather dataset that included forecasted air trajectories. The PM2.5 models performed well in the hindcast mode, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.54, 0.65 and 0.64, and normalized mean error (NME) values of 0.40, 0.26 and 0.23 respectively, for the three cities. The O3 models also performed well in the hindcast mode, with R2 values of 0.75, 0.55 and 0.73, and NME values of 0.29, 0.26 and 0.24 in the three cities. The O3 models performed better in summertime than in winter in Beijing and Guangzhou, and captured the O3 variations well all the year round in Nanjing. The overall forecast performance of the PM2.5 and O3 models during the test year varied from fair to good, depending on location. The forecasts were somewhat degraded compared with hindcasts from the same year, depending on the accuracy of the forecasted meteorological input data. For the O3 models, the model forecast accuracy was strongly dependent on the maximum temperature forecasts. For the critical forecasts, involving air quality standard exceedences, the PM2.5 model forecasts were fair to good, and the O3 model forecasts were poor to fair.

  7. A numerical model to evaluate potential impacts of sea-level rise on groundwater resources in the Delaware coastal plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, C.; McKenna, T. E.; Wang, L.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise on the U.S. East Coast has accelerated much faster than in other parts of the world. In Delaware, the estimated sea level could rise as high as 1.5 meters by the year 2100 based on the information in IPCC (2007) and CCSP (2009). In this study, we used a 3-D variable-density groundwater flow model to study the movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface and water table changes due to sea-level rise. Rather than developing a site-specific model, we analyzed the geospatial features of a serious of sub-watersheds along the coastline of the Delaware Estuary in Delaware using ArcGIS and constructed a representative model to capture the generalized flow patterns and saltwater intrusion rates that occur in typical area. Different scenarios with varying parameters were simulated. The simulation results were then applied to the Delaware River region to evaluate potential impacts of groundwater level changes on the potential land lose.

  8. Simulation of groundwater and nuclide transport in the near-field of the high-level radioactive waste repository with TOUGHREACT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xun; YANG Zeping; ZHENG Zhihong; WU Hongmei

    2008-01-01

    In order to know the mechanism of groundwater transport and the variation of ion concentrations in the near-field of the high-level radioactive waste repository, the whole process was simulated by EOS3 module of TOUGHREACT. Generally, the pH and cation concentrations vary obviously in the near-field saturated zone due to interaction between groundwater and bentonite. Moreover, the simulated results showed that calcite precipitation could not cause obvious variations in the porosity of media in the near-filed if the chemical components and their concentrations of groundwater and bentonite pore water are similar to those used in this study.

  9. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  10. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  11. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  12. Toxic Levels of Some Heavy Metals in Drinking Groundwater in Dakahlyia Governorate, Egypt in the Year 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RA Mandour

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Fifty-four drinking groundwater samples were collected in April 2010 from some districts of the Dakahlyia governorate, Egypt. The water samples were analyzed by atomic absorption spectrophotometer for iron, manganese, lead, nickel, chromium, zinc, copper, cobalt and cadmium concentrations. All samples but two were found suitable for drinking; from the water sample from Aga district showed slightly higher levels of cadmium and nickel (Ikhtab and Feshbena than other areas; the concentrations were higher than the permissible limits of Egyptian Ministry of Health and World Health Organization.

  13. Response of the accumulation of proline in the bodies of Populus euphratica to the change of groundwater level at the lower reaches of Tarim River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Yaning; CHEN Yapeng; LI Weihong; ZHANG Hongfeng

    2003-01-01

    The content of proline in the plant bodies is closely related to the converse-succession-resistant capability of the plants. In this paper, the relationship between the proline accumulation in the bodies of Populus euphratica and the change of groundwater level is analyzed by taking Populus euphratica, the main community-building species of the desert riparian forests along the Tarim River, as the research object. The research results show that the accumulation of proline in the bodies of Populus euphratica is closely related to the change of groundwater level gradient under drought stress, it increases with the drawdown of groundwater level and the increase of moisture stress degree; the accumulation of proline in the bodies of Populus euphratica has two extremely high points at the groundwater depth ranges of 3.64-5.14 m and 9.46-10.16 m. Combining the field investigation and the analysis of the plots, it is considered that the groundwater level of 3.5-4.5 m is rational for the growth of Populus euphratica. The stress groundwater depth for the normal growth and the critical one for the survival of Populus euphratica are below 4.5 m and 9-10 m respectively at the lower reaches of the Tarim River.

  14. Effect of citizen engagement levels in flood forecasting by assimilating crowdsourced observations in hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Cortes Arevalo, Juliette; Alfonso, Leonardo; Wehn, Uta; Norbiato, Daniele; Monego, Martina; Ferri, Michele; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2017-04-01

    In the past years, a number of methods have been proposed to reduce uncertainty in flood prediction by means of model updating techniques. Traditional physical observations are usually integrated into hydrological and hydraulic models to improve model performances and consequent flood predictions. Nowadays, low-cost sensors can be used for crowdsourced observations. Different type of social sensors can measure, in a more distributed way, physical variables such as precipitation and water level. However, these crowdsourced observations are not integrated into a real-time fashion into water-system models due to their varying accuracy and random spatial-temporal coverage. We assess the effect in model performance due to the assimilation of crowdsourced observations of water level. Our method consists in (1) implementing a Kalman filter into a cascade of hydrological and hydraulic models. (2) defining observation errors depending on the type of sensor either physical or social. Randomly distributed errors are based on accuracy ranges that slightly improve according to the citizens' expertise level. (3) Using a simplified social model to realistically represent citizen engagement levels based on population density and citizens' motivation scenarios. To test our method, we synthetically derive crowdsourced observations for different citizen engagement levels from a distributed network of physical and social sensors. The observations are assimilated during a particular flood event occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment, Italy. The results of this study demonstrate that sharing crowdsourced water level observations (often motivated by a feeling of belonging to a community of friends) can help in improving flood prediction. On the other hand, a growing participation of individual citizens or weather enthusiasts sharing hydrological observations in cities can help to improve model performance. This study is a first step to assess the effects of crowdsourced observations in

  15. The WRF Model Forecast-Derived Low-Level Wind Shear Climatology over the United States Great Plains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukanta Basu

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available For wind resource assessment projects, it is common practice to use a power-law relationship (U(z ~ zα and a fixed shear exponent (α = 1=7 to extrapolate the observed wind speed from a low measurement level to high turbine hub-heights. However, recent studies using tall-tower observations have found that the annual average shear exponents at several locations over the United States Great Plains (USGP are significantly higher than 1=7. These findings highlight the critical need for detailed spatio-temporal characterizations of wind shear climatology over the USGP, where numerous large wind farms will be constructed in the foreseeable future. In this paper, a new generation numerical weather prediction model—the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model, a fast and relatively inexpensive alternative to time-consuming and costly tall-tower projects, is utilized to determine whether it can reliably estimate the shear exponent and the magnitude of the directional shear at any arbitrary location over the USGP. Our results indicate that the WRF model qualitatively captures several low-level wind shear characteristics. However, there is definitely room for physics parameterization improvements for the WRF model to reliably represent the lower part of the atmospheric boundary layer.

  16. Research on flow characteristics of deep groundwater by environmental isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimada, Jun; Miyaoka, Kunihide [Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki (Japan); Sakurai, Hideyuki; Senoo, Muneaki; Kumata, Masahiro; Mukai, Masayuki; Watanabe, Kazuo; Ouchi, Misao

    1996-01-01

    In this research, as the technique for grasping the behavior of groundwater in deep rock bed which is important as the factor of disturbing the natural barrier in the formation disposal of high level radioactive waste, the method of utilizing the environmental isotopes contained in groundwater as natural tracer was taken up, and by setting up the concrete field of investigation, through the forecast of flow by the two or three dimensional groundwater flow analysis using a computer, the planning and execution of water sampling, the analysis of various environmental isotopes, the interpretation based on those results of measurement and so on, the effectiveness of the investigation technique used was verified, and the real state of the behavior of deep groundwater in the district being studied was clarified. In this research, Imaichi alluvial fan located in northern Kanto plain was taken as the object. In fiscal year 1996, three-dimensional steady state groundwater flow simulation was carried out based on the data related to shallow groundwater and surface water systems, and the places where active groundwater flow is expected were selected, and boring will be carried out there. The analysis model and the results are reported. (K.I.)

  17. Changes between early development (1930–60) and recent (2005–15) groundwater-level altitudes and dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations In and near Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Jonathan V.; Teeple, Andrew; Payne, Jason; Ikard, Scott

    2016-06-21

    Llano Estacado Underground Water Conservation District, Sandy Land Underground Water Conservation District, and South Plains Underground Water Conservation District manage groundwater resources in a part of west Texas near the Texas-New Mexico State line. Declining groundwater levels have raised concerns about the amount of available groundwater in the study area and the potential for water-quality changes resulting from dewatering and increased vertical groundwater movement between adjacent water-bearing units.

  18. Status of groundwater levels and storage volume in the Equus Beds aquifer near Wichita, Kansas, January 2006 to January 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Cristi V.; Aucott, Walter R.

    2010-01-01

    A part of the Equus Beds aquifer in southwestern Harvey County and northwestern Sedgwick County was developed to supply water to residents of Wichita and for irrigation in south-central Kansas. Groundwater pumping for city and agricultural use caused water levels to decline in a large part of the aquifer northwest of Wichita. In 1965, the city of Wichita began using water from Cheney Reservoir in addition to water from the Equus Beds aquifer to meet the city's increasing demand for water. Irrigation pumpage in the area increased substantially during the 1970s and 1980s and contributed to the water-level declines. Water-level declines reached their maximum to date in October 1992.

  19. Status of groundwater levels and storage volume in the Equus Beds aquifer near Wichita, Kansas, January 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klager, Brian J.

    2016-12-29

    The Equus Beds aquifer in south-central Kansas, which is part of the High Plains aquifer, serves as a source of water for municipal and agricultural users in the area. The city of Wichita has used the Equus Beds aquifer as one of its primary water sources since the 1940s. The aquifer in and around Wichita’s well field reached historically low water levels in 1993, prompting the city to adopt new water-use and conservation strategies to ensure future water supply needs were met. Part of the plan was to initiate a managed aquifer recharge program called the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project. The goal of the managed aquifer recharge program is to artificially recharge the Equus Beds aquifer with treated water from the Little Arkansas River. As part of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project, the city of Wichita and the U.S. Geological Survey have partnered in a long-term cooperative study to monitor and describe the quantity and quality of the water in the Equus Beds aquifer and the Little Arkansas River.The city of Wichita, the Equus Beds Groundwater Management District No. 2, the Kansas Department of Agriculture–Division of Water Resources, and the U.S. Geological Survey collected groundwater levels in numerous wells screened in the Equus Beds aquifer in the area in and around Wichita’s well field in January 2016. The measurements were used to interpolate potentiometric surfaces for shallow and deep parts of the aquifer in the study area. These potentiometric surfaces were compared with potentiometric surfaces from previous years to estimate changes in water levels and storage volume in the study area.Groundwater levels were generally higher in January 2016 than they were in January 2015. On average, in January 2016, groundwater levels in the shallow part of the aquifer were about 3.4 feet higher and groundwater levels in the deep part of the aquifer were about 3.8 feet higher than in January 2015. The volume of water stored in the

  20. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  1. Simulation of groundwater level variations using wavelet combined with neural network, linear regression and support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Hadi; Rajaee, Taher

    2017-01-01

    Simulation of groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations is an important task in management of groundwater resources. In this study, the effect of wavelet analysis on the training of the artificial neural network (ANN), multi linear regression (MLR) and support vector regression (SVR) approaches was investigated, and the ANN, MLR and SVR along with the wavelet-ANN (WNN), wavelet-MLR (WLR) and wavelet-SVR (WSVR) models were compared in simulating one-month-ahead of GWL. The only variable used to develop the models was the monthly GWL data recorded over a period of 11 years from two wells in the Qom plain, Iran. The results showed that decomposing GWL time series into several sub-time series, extremely improved the training of the models. For both wells 1 and 2, the Meyer and Db5 wavelets produced better results compared to the other wavelets; which indicated wavelet types had similar behavior in similar case studies. The optimal number of delays was 6 months, which seems to be due to natural phenomena. The best WNN model, using Meyer mother wavelet with two decomposition levels, simulated one-month-ahead with RMSE values being equal to 0.069 m and 0.154 m for wells 1 and 2, respectively. The RMSE values for the WLR model were 0.058 m and 0.111 m, and for WSVR model were 0.136 m and 0.060 m for wells 1 and 2, respectively.

  2. Effect of sea-level rise and climate change on groundwater salinity and agro-hydrology in a low coastal region of the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stuyt, L.C.P.M.; Kabat, P.; Postma, J.; Pomper, A.B.

    1995-01-01

    Scenario studies were carried out to predict the effects of doubled carbon dioxide levels, a 1 °C temperature increase and a 1.2 m sea level rise on seepage, groundwater and crop production. Climatic change was simulated, showing increased precipitation. Simulation of effects of sea level rise on

  3. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  4. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  8. Water-level changes and directions of ground-water flow in the shallow aquifer, Fallon area, Churchill County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, R.L.; Allander, K.K.

    1993-01-01

    The Truckee-Carson-Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990 directed the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to acquire water rights for wetland areas in the Carson Desert, Nevada. The public is concerned that htis acquisition of water rights and delivery of the water directly to wildlife areas would result in less recharge to the shallow ground water in the Fallon area and cause domestic wells to go dry. In January 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, began a study of the shallow ground-water system in the Fallon area in Churchill County, Nevada. A network of 126 wells in the study area was monitored. Between January and November 1992, water levels in most wells declined, usually less than 2 feet. The maximum measured decline over this period was 2.68 feet in a well near Stillwater Marsh. Between April and July, however, water levels rose in irrigated areas, typically 1 to 2 feet. Newlands Project water deliveries to the study area began soon after the turn of the century. Since then, water levels have risen more than 15 feet across much of the study area. Water lost from unlined irrigtiaon canals caused the stage in Big Soda Lake to rise nearly 60 feet; ground-water levels near the lake have risen 30 to 40 feet. The depth to water in most irrigated areas is now less than 10 feet. The altitude of the water table ranges from 4.025 feet above sea level 11 miles west of Fallon to 3,865 feet in the Stillwater Marsh area. Ground water flows eastward and divides; some flow goes to the northeast toward the Carson Sink and Stillwater areas, and some goes southeastward to Carson Lake.

  9. Tide-induced fluctuations of salinity and groundwater level in unconfined aquifers - Field measurements and numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levanon, Elad; Yechieli, Yoseph; Gvirtzman, Haim; Shalev, Eyal

    2017-08-01

    The responses of the fresh-saline water interface (FSI) and the groundwater level (GWL) to the Mediterranean Sea tide were monitored in the coastal aquifer of Israel, modeled numerically and analyzed using cross-correlation analysis. Different time-lags between sea level fluctuations and hydraulic head and salinity fluctuations were detected for the FSI and the GWL. At the FSI, the time-lag of hydraulic head behind the sea level is much shorter than the lag of the salinity at the same point. Surprisingly, similar time-lags behind the sea level were measured for both the hydraulic head at the GWL and the salinity at the FSI, both at the same distance from the shoreline. Results from a numerical model, simulating the flow and transport processes at the field scale, agree with field measurements. In both, the GWL and the salinity in the FSI fluctuate almost simultaneously, while the hydraulic head in the FSI reacts faster to sea level fluctuations. The actual movement of the fresh water body, which is controlled by the unsaturated flow in the capillary fringe ('capillary effect'), lags behind the pressure head fluctuations in the deeper parts of the aquifer, which is controlled by saturated parameters of the aquifer. The overall results agree with the conceptual mechanism suggested by Levanon et al. (2016), in which the effect of sea tide on the coastal groundwater system comprises two main processes: (1) tidal fluctuations at the sea floor boundary which cause pressure wave propagation into the aquifer, and (2) attenuation at the GWL due to the capillary effect which control also the change in the salinity and the actual movement of the FSI.

  10. Development og groundwater flow modeling techniques for the low-level radwaste disposal (III)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Dae-Seok; Kim, Chun-Soo; Kim, Kyung-Soo; Park, Byung-Yoon; Koh, Yong-Kweon; Park, Hyun-Soo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    The project amis to establish the methodology of hydrogeologic assessment by the field application of the evaluation techniques gained and accumulated from the previous hydrogeological research works in Korea. The results of the project and their possible areas for application are (1) acquisition of detailed hydrogeologic information by using a borehole televiewer and a multipacker system, (2) establishing an integrated hydrogeological assessment method for fractured rocks, (3) acquisition of the fracture parameters for fracture modeling, (4) an inversion analysis of hydraulic parameters from fracture network modeling, (5) geostatistical methods for the spatial assignment of hydraulic parameters for fractured rocks, and (6) establishing the groundwater flow modeling procedure for a repository. 75 refs., 72 figs., 34 tabs. (Author)

  11. Bored boys, graffiti, and YouTube - tracing recent groundwater level changes in a Saudi Arabian cave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelsen, Nils; Dirks, Heiko; Schulz, Stephan; Kempe, Stephan; Schüth, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    The Dahl Hith cave is located approximately 30 km southeast of Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. In the past decades, the groundwater table exposed inside the cave became subject to appreciable changes. After a decline due to agricultural water abstraction for irrigation purposes, the water table exhibited a rapid rise in the last few years. Considering that most of the aquifers of the country show a depletion of the largely fossil groundwater, the mentioned rise is quite unusual. The area does not host an observation well, i.e., reliable data on the piezometric changes is hitherto not available. Hence, two uncommon data sources were used to reconstruct the water level changes: (1) YouTube videos and (2) graffiti inscriptions. (1) The cave is frequently visited by locals and expats from Riyadh and many visitors are willing to share their cave adventures on YouTube. Identifying certain reference points in the uploaded videos (e.g. specific boulders, cave graffiti) and estimating their position relative to the water table allows for an approximate reconstruction of the recent groundwater rise. Information on the observation time is derived from the uploading date. Occasionally, also the exact date of the visit is provided as part of the footage description. (2) Some people documented their visit by graffiti inscriptions. These do not only serve as a marker in the videos, but also contain genuine data on historic water levels: if written on parts of the cave wall, which are only accessible from the water, they indicate the water level at the time of their creation. Fortunately, some graffiti also feature the date of the visit. In order to improve the reliability of the water level estimations, measurements conducted in the course of own site visits in the past few years were considered for the evaluation. Also photographs taken during these surveys helped to improve the quality of the water level reconstruction. The described "Youtube Approach" could be interpreted

  12. High-resolution hydrological seasonal forecasting for water resources management over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

    2017-04-01

    To support the decision-making process at the seasonal time scale, hydrological forecasts with a high temporal and spatial resolution are required to provide the level of information needed by water managers. So far high-resolution seasonal forecasts have been unavailable due to 1) lack of availability in meteorological seasonal forecasts, 2) the coarse temporal resolution of meteorological seasonal forecasts, requiring temporal downscaling, and 3) lack of consistency between observations and seasonal forecasts, requiring bias-correction. As part of the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe) project, we have created a unique dataset of hydrological seasonal forecasts derived from four atmospheric circulation models (CanCM4, FLOR-B01, ECMF, LFPW) in combination with four global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP). The forecasts provide daily values at 5-km spatial resolution and are bias corrected against E-OBS meteorological observations. Consistency in the LSM parameterization ensures synergy in the hydrological forecasts, resulting in 208 forecasts at any given day over Europe. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been co-designed in collaboration with end-users and stakeholders inside the EDgE project. An example of an SCII is the percentage of ensemble realizations above the 10th percentile of monthly river flow or below the 90th percentile, including the persistency in the forecast with increasing lead times. Results show that skillful discharge forecasts can be made throughout Europe 3 months in advance, with predictability up to 6 months for Northern Europe due to the impact of snow. The predictability of soil moisture is limited to the first three months, due to the significant impact of precipitation and the short memory in the initial conditions (only for the first month). The groundwater recharge predictability

  13. Guidelines for selecting codes for ground-water transport modeling of low-level waste burial sites. Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmons, C.S.; Cole, C.R.

    1985-05-01

    This document was written to provide guidance to managers and site operators on how ground-water transport codes should be selected for assessing burial site performance. There is a need for a formal approach to selecting appropriate codes from the multitude of potentially useful ground-water transport codes that are currently available. Code selection is a problem that requires more than merely considering mathematical equation-solving methods. These guidelines are very general and flexible and are also meant for developing systems simulation models to be used to assess the environmental safety of low-level waste burial facilities. Code selection is only a single aspect of the overall objective of developing a systems simulation model for a burial site. The guidance given here is mainly directed toward applications-oriented users, but managers and site operators need to be familiar with this information to direct the development of scientifically credible and defensible transport assessment models. Some specific advice for managers and site operators on how to direct a modeling exercise is based on the following five steps: identify specific questions and study objectives; establish costs and schedules for achieving answers; enlist the aid of professional model applications group; decide on approach with applications group and guide code selection; and facilitate the availability of site-specific data. These five steps for managers/site operators are discussed in detail following an explanation of the nine systems model development steps, which are presented first to clarify what code selection entails.

  14. Potential effects of groundwater pumping on water levels, phreatophytes, and spring discharges in Spring and Snake Valleys, White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halford, Keith J.; Plume, Russell W.

    2011-01-01

    Assessing hydrologic effects of developing groundwater supplies in Snake Valley required numerical, groundwater-flow models to estimate the timing and magnitude of capture from streams, springs, wetlands, and phreatophytes. Estimating general water-table decline also required groundwater simulation. The hydraulic conductivity of basin fill and transmissivity of basement-rock distributions in Spring and Snake Valleys were refined by calibrating a steady state, three-dimensional, MODFLOW model of the carbonate-rock province to predevelopment conditions. Hydraulic properties and boundary conditions were defined primarily from the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model except in Spring and Snake Valleys. This locally refined model was referred to as the Great Basin National Park calibration (GBNP-C) model. Groundwater discharges from phreatophyte areas and springs in Spring and Snake Valleys were simulated as specified discharges in the GBNP-C model. These discharges equaled mapped rates and measured discharges, respectively. Recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and transmissivity were distributed throughout Spring and Snake Valleys with pilot points and interpolated to model cells with kriging in geologically similar areas. Transmissivity of the basement rocks was estimated because thickness is correlated poorly with transmissivity. Transmissivity estimates were constrained by aquifer-test results in basin-fill and carbonate-rock aquifers. Recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and transmissivity distributions of the GBNP-C model were estimated by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function that included measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Tikhonov regularization observations were equations that defined preferred relations between the pilot points. Measured water levels, water levels that were simulated with RASA, depth-to-water beneath distributed groundwater and spring discharges, land-surface altitudes, spring discharge at

  15. Resolving discrepancies between hydraulic and chemical calibration data for seawater intrusion groundwater flow models by considering climate-driven sea level change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Chapman; A. Hassan; K. Pohlmann

    2001-10-18

    Groundwater models of seawater intrusion environments can be calibrated using both hydraulic and chemical information. The possible impact of the long-term transient process of sea level change is difficult to identify, but important to accurate simulation of present conditions. The response times of the pressure and chemical fields to major fluctuations in sea level change are investigated

  16. Land subsidence induced by groundwater extraction and building damage level assessment-a case study of Datun,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Qi-yan; LIU Gang-jun; MENG Lei; FU Er-jiang; ZHANG Hai-rong; ZHANG Ke-fei

    2008-01-01

    As in many parts of the world, long-term excessive extraction of groundwater has caused significant land-surface subsidence in the residential areas of Datun coal mining district in East China. The recorded maximum level of subsidence in the area since 1976 to 2006 is 863 mm, and the area with an accumulative subsidence more than 200 mm has reached 33.1 km2 by the end of 2006. Over ten cases of building crack due to ground subsidence have already been observed. Spatial variation in ground subsidence often leads to a corresponding pattern of ground deformation. Buildings and underground infrastructures have been under a higher risk of damage in locations with greater differential ground deformation. Governmental guideline in China classifies building damages into four different levels, based on the observable measures such as the width of wall crack, the degree of door and window deformation, the degree of wall inclination and the degree of structural destruction. Building damage level (BDL) is estimated by means of ground deformation analysis in terms of variations in slope gradient and curvature. Ground deformation analysis in terms of variations in slope gradient has shown that the areas of BDL Ⅲ and BDL Ⅱ sites account for about 0.013 km2 and 0.284km2 respectively in 2006, and the predicted areas of BDL (define this first) Ⅲ and Ⅱ sites will be about 0.029 km2 and 0.423 km2respectively by 2010. The situation is getting worse as subsidence continues. That calls for effective strategies for subsidence mitigation and damage reduction, in terms of sustainable groundwater extraction, enhanced monitoring and the establishment of early warning systems.

  17. Theoretical basis for expert system to forecast and assess economic impact of anthropogenic pollution on population disease level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.I. Bublyk

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. Theoretical basis of mathematical apparatus of fuzzy sets to evaluate and account the man-made (anthropogenic losses is improved in the article in order to take effective administrative decisions of their reduction and prevention. Theoretical basis for building an expert system for forecasting the economic effects of man-made (anthropogenic pollution on population levels of disease is analyzed. Practically these investigations will give the opportunity to control measures of orientation of the national economy and its individual industries on sustainable development. The results of the analysis. The theoretical foundations and applied problems of predicting man-made damage to the national economy and methods of management at the state level allowed for the following conclusions. 1. To justify the application of theoretical principles of fuzzy sets as an effective mathematical tool in conditions of incomplete information and uncertainty in future work the advantages of fuzzy expert systems, including the possibility of approximate descriptions such complex phenomena that can not be described in conventional quantitative terms, and the ability to receive, store and adjust the knowledge possessed by experts in this subject area in the process of dialogue with them in order to get real results. 2. The model of fuzzy expert system for establishing interdependencies between the amount of pollution (emissions, effluents, waste and deterioration of health in Ukraine has been proposed. 3. The model in predicting the technogenic load (discharges (drained polluted waters without treatment and emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitric oxide due to economic activity and its effects on the number of newly registered tumors in 1000 people of the population in Ukraine has been investigated. 4. During the investigation it was established as a rising idea to use the claim that the impact of emissions and discharges of pollutants to the number

  18. Cross-species toxicogenomic analyses and phenotypic anchoring in response to groundwater low-level pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porreca, Immacolata; D'Angelo, Fulvio; Gentilcore, Daniela; Carchia, Emanuele; Amoresano, Angela; Affuso, Andrea; Ceccarelli, Michele; De Luca, Pasquale; Esposito, Libera; Guadagno, Francesco M; Mallardo, Massimo; Nardone, Antonio; Maccarone, Sergio; Pane, Francesca; Scarfò, Marzia; Sordino, Paolo; De Felice, Mario; Ambrosino, Concetta

    2014-12-05

    Comparison of toxicogenomic data facilitates the identification of deregulated gene patterns and maximizes health risk prediction in human. Here, we performed phenotypic anchoring on the effects of acute exposure to low-grade polluted groundwater using mouse and zebrafish. Also, we evaluated two windows of chronic exposure in mouse, starting in utero and at the end of lactation. Bioinformatic analysis of livers microarray data showed that the number of deregulated biofunctions and pathways is higher after acute exposure, compared to the chronic one. It also revealed specific profiles of altered gene expression in all treatments, pointing to stress response/mitochondrial pathways as major players of environmental toxicity. Of note, dysfunction of steroid hormones was also predicted by bioinformatic analysis and verified in both models by traditional approaches, serum estrogens measurement and vitellogenin mRNA determination in mice and zebrafish, respectively. In our report, phenotypic anchoring in two vertebrate model organisms highlights the toxicity of low-grade pollution, with varying susceptibility based on exposure window. The overlay of zebrafish and mice deregulated pathways, more than single genes, is useful in risk identification from chemicals implicated in the observed effects.

  19. Coseismic responses of groundwater levels in the Three Gorges well-network to the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chenglong Liu; Guangcai Wang; Weihua Zhang; Jiangchang Mei

    2009-01-01

    We systematically analyze coseismic responses and post-seismic characteristics of groundwater levels in the Three Gorges well-network to the Afs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008. The results indicate that these characteristics differ among wells. On the conditions of similar borehole configurations, the differences are associated with geological structural sites of wells, burial types of aquifers monitored, and transmissivities of aquifer systems. We explored coseismic and post-seismic step-rise and step-drop mechanical mechanisms and their implication to earthquake prediction. We validated the inference that the residual step-rise zone is a possible earthquake risk zone based on recent seismic activity on the Xianniishan fault in the area.

  20. Evaluation of Elevated Tritium Levels in Groundwater Downgradient from the 618-11 Burial Ground Phase I Investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dresel, P.E.; Smith, R.M.; Williams, B.A.; Thompson, C.J.; Evans, J.C.; Hulstrom, L.C.

    2000-05-01

    This report describes the results of the preliminary investigation of elevated tritium in groundwater discovered near the 618-11 burial ground, located in the eastern part of the Hanford Site. Tritium in one well downgradient of the burial ground was detected at levels up to 8,140,000 pCi/L. The 618-11 burial ground received a variety of radioactive waste from the 300 Area between 1962 and 1967. The burial ground covers 3.5 hectare (8.6 acre) and contains trenches, large diameter caissons, and vertical pipe storage units. The burial ground was stabilized with a native sediment covering. The Energy Northwest reactor complex was constructed immediately east of the burial ground.

  1. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  2. Ground-water protection, low-level waste, and below regulatory concern: What`s the connection?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruhlke, J.M.; Galpin, F.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Radiation Programs

    1991-12-31

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a responsibility to protect ground water and drinking water under a wide variety of statutes. Each statute establishes different but specific requirements for EPA and applies to diverse environmental contaminants. Radionuclides are but one of the many contaminants subject to this regulatory matrix. Low-level radioactive waste (LLW) and below regulatory concern (BRC) are but two of many activities falling into this regulatory structure. The nation`s ground water serves as a major source of drinking water, supports sensitive ecosystems, and supplies the needs of agriculture and industry. Ground water can prove enormously expensive to clean up. EPA policy for protecting ground water has evolved considerably over the last ten years. The overall goal is to prevent adverse effects to human health, both now and in the future, and to protect the integrity of the nation`s ground-water resources. The Agency uses the Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) under the Safe Drinking Water Act as reference points for protection in both prevention and remediation activities. What`s the connection? Both low-level waste management and disposal activities and the implementation of below regulatory concern related to low-level waste disposal have the potential for contaminating ground water. EPA is proposing to use the MCLs as reference points for low-level waste disposal and BRC disposal in order to define limits to the environmental contamination of ground water that is, or may be, used for drinking water.

  3. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  4. Database of groundwater levels and hydrograph descriptions for the Nevada Test Site area, Nye County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Peggy E.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    A database containing water levels measured from wells in and near areas of underground nuclear testing at the Nevada Test Site was developed. The water-level measurements were collected from 1941 to 2016. The database provides information for each well including well construction, borehole lithology, units contributing water to the well, and general site remarks. Water-level information provided in the database includes measurement source, status, method, accuracy, and specific water-level remarks. Additionally, the database provides hydrograph narratives that document the water-level history and describe and interpret the water-level hydrograph for each well.Water levels in the database were quality assured and analyzed. Multiple conditions were assigned to each water-level measurement to describe the hydrologic conditions at the time of measurement. General quality, temporal variability, regional significance, and hydrologic conditions are attributed to each water-level measurement.

  5. Hydrologic conditions in urban Miami-Dade County, Florida, and the effect of groundwater pumpage and increased sea level on canal leakage and regional groundwater flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Joseph D.; White, Jeremy T.

    2014-01-01

    The extensive and highly managed surface-water system in southeastern Florida constructed during the 20th Century has allowed for the westward expansion of urban and agricultural activities in Miami-Dade County. In urban areas of the county, the surface-water system is used to (1) control urban flooding, (2) supply recharge to production well fields, and (3) control seawater intrusion. Previous studies in Miami-Dade County have determined that on a local scale, leakage from canals adjacent to well fields can supply a large percentage (46 to 78 percent) of the total groundwater pumpage from production well fields. Canals in the urban areas also receive seepage from the Biscayne aquifer that is derived from a combination of local rainfall and groundwater flow from Water Conservation Area 3 and Everglades National Park, which are west of urban areas of Miami-Dade County.

  6. Changes in groundwater levels and the response of natural vegetation to transfer of water to the lower reaches of the Tarim River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Restoration and reconstruction of the degraded Tarim River ecosystem is an important challenge. A goal of an ecological water conveyance project is to protect and restore the natural vegetation in the lower reaches of Tarim River by transferring water from Bosten Lake, through the river channel, to the lower reaches. This study describes the changes in groundwater depth during the water transfer and the respondence of riparian vegetation to alterations in groundwater levels. The results indicate that groundwater depth along the Tarim River channel has a significant spatial-temporal component. Groundwater levels closest to the river channel show the most immediate and pronounced changes as a response to water transfer while those further away respond more slowly, although the observed change appears to be longer in duration. With a rise in the groundwater level, natural vegetation responded with higher growth rates, biomass and biodiversity. These favorable changes show that it is feasible to protect and restore the degraded natural vegetation by raising the groundwater depth. Plant communities are likely to reflect the hysteresis phenomenon, requiring higher water levels to initiate and stimulate desired growth than what may be needed to maintain the plant community. Because different species have different ecologies, including different root depths and densities and water needs, their response to increasing water availability will be spatially and temporally heterogenous. The response of vegetation is also influenced by microtopography and watering style. This paper discusses strategies for the protection and restoration of the degraded vegetation in the lower reaches of the Tarim River and provides information to complement ongoing theoretical research into ecological restoration in arid or semi-arid ecosystems.

  7. Groundwater-level change and evaluation of simulated water levels for irrigated areas in Lahontan Valley, Churchill County, west-central Nevada, 1992 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David W.; Buto, Susan G.; Welborn, Toby L.

    2016-09-14

    The acquisition and transfer of water rights to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley, Nevada, has caused concern over the potential effects on shallow aquifer water levels. In 1992, water levels in Lahontan Valley were measured to construct a water-table map of the shallow aquifer prior to the effects of water-right transfers mandated by the Fallon Paiute-Shoshone Tribal Settlement Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-618, 104 Stat. 3289). From 1992 to 2012, approximately 11,810 water-righted acres, or 34,356 acre-feet of water, were acquired and transferred to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley. This report documents changes in water levels measured during the period of water-right transfers and presents an evaluation of five groundwater-flow model scenarios that simulated water-level changes in Lahontan Valley in response to water-right transfers and a reduction in irrigation season length by 50 percent.Water levels measured in 98 wells from 2012 to 2013 were used to construct a water-table map. Water levels in 73 of the 98 wells were compared with water levels measured in 1992 and used to construct a water-level change map. Water-level changes in the 73 wells ranged from -16.2 to 4.1 feet over the 20-year period. Rises in water levels in Lahontan Valley may correspond to annual changes in available irrigation water, increased canal flows after the exceptionally dry and shortened irrigation season of 1992, and the increased conveyance of water rights transferred to Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Water-level declines generally occurred near the boundary of irrigated areas and may be associated with groundwater pumping, water-right transfers, and inactive surface-water storage reservoirs. The largest water-level declines were in the area near Carson Lake.Groundwater-level response to water-right transfers was evaluated by comparing simulated and observed water-level changes for periods representing water-right transfers and a shortened irrigation season in areas near Fallon

  8. Zr and U determination at trace level in simulated deep groundwater by Q ICP-MS using extraction chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautier, C; Coppo, M; Caussignac, C; Laszak, I; Fichet, P; Goutelard, F

    2013-03-15

    In the framework of trace element analysis by Q ICP-MS in a simulated deep Callovo-Oxfordian groundwater, separation procedures based on extraction chromatography were developed to eliminate the high salt contents and to concentrate Zr and U simultaneously. Theoretical and experimental speciation studies showed the importance of adjusting the medium to HNO₃/HF (0.5 M/0.005 M) to guarantee the stability over time of the analytes before removal of the matrix. Two preconcentration methods based on TRU and TODGA resins were optimized for the simultaneous isolation of Zr and U prior to Q ICP-MS measurements. Using TRU resin, alkali and alkali earth metals contained in the deep groundwater were removed with 2 M HNO₃ whereas Zr and U were recovered with a HNO₃/NH₄HC₂O₄ (0.02 M/0.05 M) medium. For the separation protocol based on TODGA resin, alkali and alkali earth metals were eliminated with 3 M and 11 M HNO₃ while Zr and U were simultaneously stripped with a HNO₃/HF (0.5 M/0.2 M) medium. The procedure optimized on TODGA resin was validated with the French AFNOR NF T90-210 standard by studying linearity, limits of quantification (LOQ) and separation yields. The LOQ was determined at 0.008 μg L(-1) for Zr and U after the separation. Both analytes were recovered quantitatively. Compared to a sample dilution implemented to reduce the matrix effects, the developed preconcentration method allowed improving the sensitivity up to a 20 fold factor for Zr and U measurements at trace level by Q ICP-MS. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Probabilistic forecasting of shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides using real-time numerical weather predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schmidt

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A project established at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA in New Zealand is aimed at developing a prototype of a real-time landslide forecasting system. The objective is to predict temporal changes in landslide probability for shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, based on quantitative weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Global weather forecasts from the United Kingdom Met Office (MO Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP are coupled with a regional data assimilating NWP model (New Zealand Limited Area Model, NZLAM to forecast atmospheric variables such as precipitation and temperature up to 48 h ahead for all of New Zealand. The weather forecasts are fed into a hydrologic model to predict development of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The forecasted catchment-scale patterns in soil moisture and soil saturation are then downscaled using topographic indices to predict soil moisture status at the local scale, and an infinite slope stability model is applied to determine the triggering soil water threshold at a local scale. The model uses uncertainty of soil parameters to produce probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal landslide occurrence 48~h ahead. The system was evaluated for a damaging landslide event in New Zealand. Comparison with landslide densities estimated from satellite imagery resulted in hit rates of 70–90%.

  10. The Status of Budget Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Williams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias. Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.

  11. Marine water from mid-Holocene sea level highstand trapped in a coastal aquifer: Evidence from groundwater isotopes, and environmental significance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Stephen [School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia); Currell, Matthew, E-mail: Matthew.currell@rmit.edu.au [School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia); Cendón, Dioni I. [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Kirrawee (Australia); Connected Water Initiative, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney (Australia)

    2016-02-15

    A multi-layered coastal aquifer in southeast Australia was assessed using environmental isotopes, to identify the origins of salinity and its links to palaeo-environmental setting. Spatial distribution of groundwater salinity (electrical conductivity values ranging from 0.395 to 56.1 mS/cm) was examined along the coastline along with geological, isotopic and chemical data. This allowed assessment of different salinity sources and emplacement mechanisms. Molar chloride/bromide ratios range from 619 to 1070 (621 to 705 in samples with EC > 15 mS/cm), indicating salts are predominantly marine. Two distinct vertical salinity profiles were observed, one with increasing salinity with depth and another with saline shallow water overlying fresh groundwater. The saline shallow groundwater (EC = 45.4 to 55.7 mS/cm) has somewhat marine-like stable isotope ratios (δ{sup 18}O = − 2.4 to − 1.9 ‰) and radiocarbon activities indicative of middle Holocene emplacement (47.4 to 60.4 pMC). This overlies fresher groundwater with late Pleistocene radiocarbon ages and meteoric stable isotopes (δ{sup 18}O = − 5.5 to − 4.6‰). The configuration suggests surface inundation of the upper sediments by marine water during the mid-Holocene (c. 2–8 kyr BP), when sea level was 1–2 m above today's level. Profiles of chloride, stable isotopes, and radiocarbon indicate mixing between this pre-modern marine water and fresh meteoric groundwater to varying degrees around the coastline. Mixing calculations using chloride and stable isotopes show that in addition to fresh-marine water mixing, some salinity is derived from transpiration by halophytic vegetation (e.g. mangroves). The δ{sup 13}C ratios in saline water (− 17.6 to − 18.4‰) also have vegetation/organic matter signatures, consistent with emplacement by surface inundation and extensive interaction between vegetation and recharging groundwater. Saline shallow groundwater is preserved only in areas where low

  12. Elevated levels of iron in groundwater in Prey Veng province in Cambodia: a possible factor contributing to high iron stores in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakochuk, Crystal D; Murphy, Heather M; Whitfield, Kyly C; Barr, Susan I; Vercauteren, Suzanne M; Talukder, Aminuzzaman; Porter, Keith; Kroeun, Hou; Eath, Many; McLean, Judy; Green, Timothy J

    2015-06-01

    Iron is a natural element found in food, water and soil and is essential for human health. Our aim was to determine the levels of iron and 25 other metals and trace elements in groundwater from 22 households in Prey Veng, Cambodia. Water analyses were conducted using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and optical emission spectrometry. Compared to the 2011 World Health Organization guidelines for drinking water quality, aluminum, iron and manganese exceeded maximum levels (in 4.5, 72.7 and 40.9% of samples, respectively). Compared to the 2004 Cambodian drinking water quality standards, iron and manganese exceeded maximum levels (in 59.1 and 36.4% of samples, respectively). We found no evidence of arsenic contamination. Guidelines for iron were established primarily for esthetic reasons (e.g. taste), whereas other metals and elements have adverse effects associated with toxicity. Iron in groundwater ranged from 134 to 5,200 μg/L (mean ∼1,422 μg/L). Based on a daily consumption of 3 L groundwater, this equates to ∼0.4-15.6 mg iron (mean ∼4.3 mg/day), which may be contributing to high iron stores and the low prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in Prey Veng women. Elevated levels of manganese in groundwater are a concern and warrant further investigation.

  13. Limits to global groundwater consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, L. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2016-12-01

    Groundwater is the largest accessible freshwater resource worldwide and is of critical importance for irrigation, and so for global food security. For many regions of the world where groundwater abstraction exceeds groundwater recharge, persistent groundwater depletion occurs. A direct consequence of depletion is falling groundwater levels, reducing baseflows to rivers, harming ecosystems. Also, pumping costs increase, wells dry up and land subsidence can occur. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable limits with all the associated problems. Here, we estimated past and future trends (1960-2050) in groundwater levels resulting from changes in abstractions and climate and predicted when limits of groundwater consumption are reached. We explored these limits by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that low that groundwater becomes unattainable for abstractions and how river flows are affected. Water availabilities, abstractions, and lateral groundwater flows are simulated (5 arcmin. resolution) using a coupled version of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and a groundwater model based on MODFLOW. The groundwater model includes a parameterization of the worlds confined and unconfined aquifer systems, needed for a realistic simulation of groundwater head dynamics. Results show that, next to the existing regions experiencing groundwater depletion (like India, Pakistan, Central Valley) new regions will develop, e.g. Southern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Using a limit that reflects present-day feasibility of groundwater abstraction, we estimate that in 2050 groundwater becomes unattainable for 20% of the global population, mainly in the developing countries and pumping cost will increase significantly. Largest impacts are found

  14. 相应水位法在水文预报中的应用%Application of Corresponding Water Level Method in Hydrological Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘汉臣

    2012-01-01

    The corresponding water level method is a simple hydrological forecast method applied widely in current flood forecast.Based on the theory of flood wave motion in river course,the same phase point on the flood wave(such as flood rising point,peak and wave valley) will show a real time water level on the upper and lower river sections,calling the water level for corresponding water level each other.The corresponding water level experiential relation can be established,then forecast the future water level of lower section from current water level of upper section in river course.The flood peak water level forecast in Mudanjiang Hydrological Station is realized by constituting relevant relations between Mudanjiang Changtingzi Hydrological Station and Mudanjiang Hydrological Station in this study and it provides real-time hydrological information for Mudanjiang River flood control management.%相应水位法是目前洪水作业预报中应用较为广泛的一种简便水文预报方法。它根据河道洪水波运动原理,洪水波上同一位相点(如起涨点、洪峰、波谷)通过河段上下断面时表现出的水位,彼此称相应水位,建立相应水位经验关系,由上断面现时水位预报下断面未来时刻水位的河道洪水预报方法。主要通过对牡丹江长汀子水文站与牡丹江水文站建立洪峰水位相关关系,实现对牡丹江水文站洪峰水位的预报,为牡丹江市防汛调度提供及时的水文信息。

  15. Does a more skilful meteorological input lead to a more skilful flood forecast at seasonal timescales?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Jessica; Arnal, Louise; Magnusson, Linus; Cloke, Hannah

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal river flow forecasts are important for many aspects of the water sector including flood forecasting, water supply, hydropower generation and navigation. In addition to short term predictions, seasonal forecasts have the potential to realise higher benefits through more optimal and consistent decisions. Their operational use however, remains a challenge due to uncertainties posed by the initial hydrologic conditions (e.g. soil moisture, groundwater levels) and seasonal climate forcings (mainly forecasts of precipitation and temperature), leading to a decrease in skill with increasing lead times. Here we present a stakeholder-led case study for the Thames catchment (UK), currently being undertaken as part of the H2020 IMPREX project. The winter of 2013-14 was the wettest on record in the UK; driven by 12 major Atlantic depressions, the Thames catchment was subject to compound (concurrent) flooding from fluvial and groundwater sources. Focusing on the 2013-14 floods, this study aims to see whether increased skill in meteorological input translates through to more accurate forecasting of compound flood events at seasonal timescales in the Thames catchment. An earlier analysis of the ECMWF System 4 (S4) seasonal meteorological forecasts revealed that it did not skilfully forecast the extreme event of winter 2013-14. This motivated the implementation of an atmospheric experiment by the ECMWF to force the S4 to more accurately represent the low-pressure weather conditions prevailing in winter 2013-14 [1]. Here, we used both the standard and the "improved" S4 seasonal meteorological forecasts to force the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) LISFLOOD hydrological model. Both hydrological forecasts were started on the 1st of November 2013 and run for 4 months of lead time to capture the peak of the 2013-14 flood event. Comparing the seasonal hydrological forecasts produced with both meteorological forcing data will enable us to assess how the improved meteorology

  16. Ground-water discharge determined from measurements of evapotranspiration, other available hydrologic components, and shallow water-level changes, Oasis Valley, Nye County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiner, S.R.; Laczniak, R.J.; DeMeo, G.A.; Smith, Jody L.; Elliott, P.E.; Nylund, W.E.; Fridrich, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    component of 0.5 foot, is estimated to be about 6,000 acre-feet. Annual subsurface outflow from Oasis Valley into the Amargosa Desert is estimated to be between 30 and 130 acre-feet. Estimates of total annual ground-water withdrawal from Oasis Valley by municipal and non-municipal users in 1996 and 1999 are 440 acre-feet and 210 acre-feet, respectively. Based on these values, natural annual ground-water discharge from Oasis Valley is about 6,100 acre-feet. Total annual discharge was 6,500 acre-ft in 1996 and 6,300 acre-ft in 1999. This quantity of natural ground-water discharge from Oasis Valley exceeds the previous estimate made in 1962 by a factor of about 2.5. Water levels were measured in Oasis Valley to gain additional insight into the ET process. In shallow wells, water levels showed annual fluctuations as large as 7 feet and daily fluctuations as large as 0.2 foot. These fluctuations may be attributed to water loss associated with evapotranspiration. In shallow wells affected by ET, annual minimum depths to water generally occurred in winter or early spring shortly after daily ET reached minimum rates. Annual maximum depths to water generally occurred in late summer or fall shortly after daily ET reached maximum rates. The magnitude of daily water-level fluctuations generally increased as ET increased and decreased as depth to water increased.

  17. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    in the financial forecasts on which they base investment decisions they may end up losing money as a consequence of biased forecasts. Thus, relying primarily on decision theories such as social comparison theory and theories on confirmation bias this thesis investigates how and why pronounced biases in financial......This thesis is broadly concentrated on decision making under uncertainty. It seeks to investigate how agents in financial markets make decisions at the individual level and how these decisions can sometimes be affected by personal traits and cognitive biases rather than being perfectly rational....... The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...

  18. Linking Organic Matter Deposition And Iron Mineral Transformations to Groundwater Arsenic Levels in the Mekong Delta, Cambodia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quicksall, A.N.; Bostick, B.C.; Sampson, M.L.

    2009-05-21

    Enriched As in drinking water wells in south and Southeast Asia has increased the risk of cancer for nearly 100 million people. This enrichment is generally attributed to the reductive dissolution of Fe oxides; however, the complex expression of As enrichment in these areas is not yet well understood. Here, the coupled sedimentological and geochemical factors that contribute to the extent and spatial distribution of groundwater As concentrations in the Mekong River delta, Cambodia in an avulsed scroll bar sequence are examined. X-Ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) was used to determine Fe and As speciation in redox preserved sediment collected from drilled cores. Dissolved As, Fe and S solution concentrations in existing and newly drilled wells (cores) differed considerably depending on their source sedimentology. The rapid burial of organic matter in the scroll bar sequence facilitated the development of extensive Fe-reducing conditions, and As release into the aquifer. In older features organic C levels are high enough to sustain extensive Fe reduction and provide ample SO{sub 4} which is reduced to sulfide. This S reduction impacts As levels; As is sequestered in sulfide minerals outside of the scrollbar sequence, decreasing pore water concentrations. In contrast, As is depleted in sediments from the scroll sequence, and associated with elevated pore water aqueous concentrations. The concentration and form of organic C in the scrollbar sequence is related to depositional environment, and can facilitate Fe and S mineral transformations, distinct sedimentary environments explain a portion of the inherent heterogeneity of aquifer As concentrations.

  19. Addressing the Challenges of Distributed Hydrologic Modeling for Operational Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butts, M. B.; Yamagata, K.; Kobor, J.; Fontenot, E.

    2008-05-01

    Operational forecasting systems must provide reliable, accurate and timely flood forecasts for a range of catchments from small rapidly responding mountain catchments and urban areas to large, complex but more slowly responding fluvial systems. Flood forecasting systems have evolved from simple forecasting for flood mitigation to real-time decision support systems for real-time reservoir operations for water supply, navigation, hydropower, for managing environmental flows and habitat protection, cooling water and water quality forecasting. These different requirements lead to a number of challenges in applying distributed modelling in an operational context. These challenges include, the often short time available for forecasting that requires a trade-off between model complexity and accuracy on the one hand and on the other hand the need for efficient calculations to reduce the computation times. Limitations in the data available in real-time require modelling tools that can not only operate on a minimum of data but also take advantage of new data sources such as weather radar, satellite remote sensing, wireless sensors etc. Finally, models must not only accurately predict flood peaks but also forecast low flows and surface water-groundwater interactions, water quality, water temperature, optimal reservoir levels, and inundated areas. This paper shows how these challenges are being addressed in a number of case studies. The central strategy has been to develop a flexible modelling framework that can be adapted to different data sources, different levels of complexity and spatial distribution and different modelling objectives. The resulting framework allows amongst other things, optimal use of grid-based precipitation fields from weather radar and numerical weather models, direct integration of satellite remote sensing, a unique capability to treat a range of new forecasting problems such as flooding conditioned by surface water-groundwater interactions. Results

  20. Excel Spreadsheet Tools for Analyzing Groundwater Level Records and Displaying Information in ArcMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Fred D

    2009-01-01

    When beginning hydrologic investigations, a first action is often to gather existing sources of well information, compile this information into a single dataset, and visualize this information in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. This report presents tools (macros) developed using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) for Microsoft Excel 2007 to assist in these tasks. One tool combines multiple datasets into a single worksheet and formats the resulting data for use by the other tools. A second tool produces summary information about the dataset, such as a list of unique site identification numbers, the number of water-level observations for each, and a table of the number of sites with a listed number of water-level observations. A third tool creates subsets of the original dataset based on user-specified options and produces a worksheet with water-level information for each well in the subset, including the average and standard deviation of water-level observations and maximum decline and rise in water levels between any two observations, among other information. This water-level information worksheet can be imported directly into ESRI ArcMap as an 'XY Data' file, and each of the fields of summary well information can be used for custom display. A separate set of VBA tools distributed in an additional Excel workbook creates hydrograph charts of each of the wells in the data subset produced by the aforementioned tools and produces portable document format (PDF) versions of the hydrograph charts. These PDF hydrographs can be hyperlinked to well locations in ArcMap or other GIS applications.

  1. Natural background levels and threshold values of chemical species in three large-scale groundwater bodies in Northern Italy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molinari, Antonio, E-mail: ant.molinari2002@libero.it [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Idraulica, Ambientale, Infrastrutture Viarie e Rilevamento, Piazza L. Da Vinci, 32-20133 Milano (Italy); Guadagnini, Laura [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Idraulica, Ambientale, Infrastrutture Viarie e Rilevamento, Piazza L. Da Vinci, 32-20133 Milano (Italy); Marcaccio, Marco [ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Direzione Tecnica, Largo Caduti del Lavoro, 6-40122 Bologna (Italy); Guadagnini, Alberto [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Idraulica, Ambientale, Infrastrutture Viarie e Rilevamento, Piazza L. Da Vinci, 32-20133 Milano (Italy)

    2012-05-15

    We analyze natural background levels (NBLs) and threshold values (TVs) of spatially distributed chemical species (NH{sub 4}, B and As) which may be a potential pressure and concern in three large scale alluvial and fluvio-deltaic aquifers at different depths of the Apennines and Po river plains in Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy. Our results are based on statistical methodologies designed to separate the natural and anthropogenic contributions in monitored concentrations by modeling the empirical distribution of the detected concentration with a mixture of probability density functions. Available chemical observations are taken over a 20 years period and are associated with different depths and cover planar investigation scales of the order of hundreds of kilometers. High concentration values detected for NH{sub 4} and B appear to be related to high natural background levels. Due to interaction with the host rock in different geochemical environments we observed that concentration vary in time and space (including in depth) consistently with the hydrogeochemical features and the occurrence of natural attenuation mechanisms in the analyzed reservoirs. Conversely, estimated As NBLs are not consistent with the conceptual model of the hydrogeochemical behavior of the systems analyzed and experimental evidences of As content in aquifer cores. This is due to the inability of these techniques to incorporate the complex dynamics of the processes associated with the specific hydrogeochemical setting. Statistical analyses performed upon aggregating the concentration data according to different time observation windows allow identifying temporal dynamics of NBLs and TVs of target compounds within the observation time frame. Our results highlight the benefit of a dynamic monitoring process and analysis of well demarcated groundwater bodies to update the associated NBLs as a function of the temporal dependence of natural processes occurring in the subsurface. Monitoring

  2. Optimal Groundwater Development in Coastal Aquifers Near Beihai, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Groundwater resources occur in a multi-aquifer system in the alluvial coastal plain near Beihai, China. The aquifers receive recharge from precipitation, canal and reservoir infiltration, and discharge through subterranean drainage into the sea and through artificial pumping. A quasithree-dimensional finite element model has been used to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater levels in the aquifers. Various input parameters were considered in the simulation model. A linear optimization model has been developed for groundwater development within the coastal aquifers. The objective function of the model is to maximize the total groundwater pumpage from the confined aquifer. The control of sea water intrusion is examined by the restriction of the water levels at points along the coast and of the pumping rates in coastal management cells. The response matrix used in the optimization model was generated from the simulation model by forecasting drawdown produced by pumping at a unit impulse discharge. Groundwater development can be primarily optimized by the alteration of the pumping rates of the existing wells.

  3. Water level observations from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for improving estimates of surface water-groundwater interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandini, Filippo; Butts, Michael; Vammen Jacobsen, Torsten

    2017-01-01

    . However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, while spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) can retrieve river water level measurements, providing: i) high...

  4. Innovation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-01

    relating to “ injectors ”) to develop a map of the related technologies [33.] Another approach is to develop a “tree” showing a system branching into its...additional terms such as “trend,” “forecast,” “ delphi ,” “assessment,” and so forth may call up other forecasts and assessments relating to the topic...present and future engine technologies. A preliminary search (Step 1, Table 5) located prior forecasts, in particular, a Delphi study [36]. The Delphi

  5. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  6. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  7. Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

    2017-04-01

    Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

  8. Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

    2016-05-01

    Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

  9. Back-propagation neural network in tidal-level forecasting by Ching-PiaoTsai and Tsong-Lin Lee - Discussion

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    an interesting study on the ap- plication of an artificial neural network (ANN) for forecasting tidal levels. This technique is comparable to the already pop- ular time series modeling with an added advantage in that the functional form between the input variable... of hydrologic models.’’ J. Hydrology, 81, 57–77. McCuen, R. H. (1993). Statistical hydrology, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. Tokar, A. S., and Johnson, P. A. (1999). ‘‘Rainfall-runoff modeling using artificial neural networks.’’ J. Hydrologic Engrg., ASCE...

  10. Estimated 2008 groundwater potentiometric surface and predevelopment to 2008 water-level change in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque area, central New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Sarah E.; Bexfield, Laura M.; Anderholm, Scott K.

    2011-01-01

    The water-supply requirements of the Albuquerque metropolitan area of central New Mexico have historically been met almost exclusively by groundwater withdrawal from the Santa Fe Group aquifer system. Previous studies have indicated that the large quantity of groundwater withdrawal relative to recharge has resulted in water-level declines in the aquifer system throughout the metropolitan area. Analysis of the magnitude and pattern of water-level change can help improve understanding of how the groundwater system responds to withdrawals and variations in the management of the water supply and can support water-management agencies' efforts to minimize future water-level declines and improve sustainability. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, presents the estimated groundwater potentiometric surface during winter (from December to March) of the 2008 water year and the estimated changes in water levels between predevelopment and water year 2008 for the production zone of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque and surrounding metropolitan and military areas. Hydrographs from selected wells are included to provide details of historical water-level changes. In general, water-level measurements used for this report were measured in small-diameter observation wells screened over short intervals and were considered to best represent the potentiometric head in the production zone-the interval of the aquifer, about 300 feet below land surface to 1,100 feet or more below land surface, in which production wells generally are screened. Water-level measurements were collected by various local and Federal agencies. The 2008 water year potentiometric surface map was created in a geographic information system, and the change in water-level elevation from predevelopment to water year 2008 was calculated. The 2008 water-level contours indicate that the general direction of

  11. Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Yean Teh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  12. Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Su Yean; Turtora, Michael; DeAngelis, Don; Jiang Jiang,; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock Lye

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  13. Groundwater flow modeling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions for the safety assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Näslund, Jens-Ove

    2014-09-01

    The impact of periglacial and glacial climate conditions on groundwater flow in fractured crystalline rock is studied by means of groundwater flow modeling of the Forsmark site, which was recently proposed as a repository site for the disposal of spent high-level nuclear fuel in Sweden. The employed model uses a thermal-hydraulically coupled approach for permafrost modeling and discusses changes in groundwater flow implied by the climate conditions found over northern Europe at different times during the last glacial cycle (Weichselian glaciation). It is concluded that discharge of particles released at repository depth occurs very close to the ice-sheet margin in the absence of permafrost. If permafrost is included, the greater part discharges into taliks in the periglacial area. During a glacial cycle, hydraulic gradients at repository depth reach their maximum values when the ice-sheet margin passes over the site; at this time, also, the interface between fresh and saline waters is distorted the most. The combined effect of advances and retreats during several glaciations has not been studied in the present work; however, the results indicate that hydrochemical conditions at depth in the groundwater flow model are almost restored after a single event of ice-sheet advance and retreat.

  14. Surface- and ground-water relations on the Portneuf river, and temporal changes in ground-water levels in the Portneuf Valley, Caribou and Bannock Counties, Idaho, 2001-02

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Gary J.

    2004-01-01

    high flows. Conveyance losses in the Pebble-Topaz reach were greatest, about 283 cubic feet per second, during the spring regulated high flows and were attributed to a hydroelectric project.Comparison of water levels in 30 wells in the Portneuf Valley during September and October 1968 and 2001 indicated long-term declines since 1968; the median decline was 3.4 feet. September and October were selected for characterizing long-term ground-water-level fluctuations because declines associated with irrigation reach a maximum at the end of the irrigation season. The average annual snowpack in the study area has declined significantly; 1945 85 average annual snowpack was 16.1 inches, whereas 1986 through 2002 average annual snowpack was 11.6 inches. Water-level declines during 1998 2002 may be partially attributable to the extended dry climatic conditions. It is unclear whether the declines could be partially attributed to increases in ground-water withdrawals. Between 1968 and 1980, water rights for ground-water withdrawals nearly doubled from 23,500 to 46,000 acre-feet per year. During this period, ground-water levels were relatively constant and did not exhibit a declining trend that could be related to increased ground-water withdrawal rights. However, ground-water withdrawals are not measured in the valley; thus, the amount of water pumped is not known. Since the 1990s, there have been several years when the Chesterfield Reservoir has not completely refilled, and the water in storage behind the reservoir has been depleted by the middle of the irrigation season. In this situation, surface-water diversions for irrigation were terminated before the end of the irrigation season, and irrigators, who were relying in part on diversions from the Portneuf River, had to rely solely on ground water as an alternate supply. Smaller volumes of water in the Chesterfield Reservoir since the 1990s indicate a growing demand for ground-water supplies.

  15. Declining Groundwater Levels in North India: Understanding Sources of Irrigation Inefficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, J.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.; Brozovic, N.

    2014-12-01

    Over the last half century, the green revolution has transformed India from a famine-prone, drought-susceptible country, into the world's third largest grain producer and one of the most intensely irrigated regions on the planet. This is in no small part due to the country's vast water resources along with an increase in tubewells and more advanced abstraction methods. While agricultural intensification has had undeniable benefits, it has, and continues to have a significant impact on water resources. Unless solutions which take into consideration the ever evolving socio-economic, hydrological and climatic conditions are found, India's agricultural future looks bleak.This research examines the irrigation behaviour of farmers, using data collected during field work in the State of Uttar Pradesh within the Ganges Basin of North India. Significant differences in farmer behaviour and irrigation practices are highlighted, not only between State districts but between individual farmers. This includes the volume of irrigation water applied and the price paid, as well as differences in the yields of crops produced. Analyses of results suggest that this is due to a number of factors, particularly the source of irrigation water. Study areas which had access to cheaper, but crucially less reliable, canal water were found to invest in more efficient water saving technologies in order to reduce the overall cost of irrigation during periods where less expensive canal water is not available. As a result, overall water use and irrigation cost is lower and yields are higher despite very similar climatic conditions. While cheap canal water is not an option for all farmers, the results show that the introduction of more efficient water saving technologies, despite the significant capital expenditure is a viable option for many farmers and costs can be recovered in a relatively short space of time. In addition, the reduction of declining water levels mean that water is abstracted from

  16. Simulation on Contamination Forecast and Control of Groundwater in a Certain Hazardous Waste Landfill%某危险废物填埋场地下水污染预测及控制模拟

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马志飞; 安达; 姜永海; 席北斗; 李定龙; 张进保; 杨昱

    2012-01-01

    On the basis of site investigation and data collection of a certain hazardous waste landfill, the groundwater flow and solute transport coupled models were established by applying Visual Modflow software, which was used to conduct a numerical simulation that forecast the transport process of Cr6+ in groundwater and the effects of three control measures(ground-harden, leakage-proof barriers and drainage ditches) of contaminants transport after leachate leakage happened in impermeable layer of the landfill. The results show that the contamination plume of Cr6+ transports with groundwater flow direction, the contamination rang would reach the pool's boundary in 10 years, and the distance of contamination transport is 1450 m. But the diffusion range of contamination plume would not be obviously expanded between 10 and 20 years. While the ground is hardened, the contamination plume would not reach the pool's boundary in 20 years. When the leakage-proof barrier is set in the bottom of water table aquifer, the concentration of Cr6+ is higher than that the leakage-proof barrier is unset, but the result is just opposite when setting the leakage-proof barrier in the bottom of underlying aquifer. The range of contamination plume is effectively controlled by setting drainage ditches that water discharge is 2642 m3·d-1, which makes the monitoring wells would not be contaminated in 20 years. Moreover, combining the ground-harden with drainage ditches can get the best effect in controlling contaminants diffusion, and meanwhile, the drainage ditches' daily discharge is reduced to 1878 m3·d-1. Therefore, it is suggested that the control measure combining the ground-harden with drainage ditches should apply to prevent contamination diffusion in groundwater when leachate leakage have happened in impermeable layer of the landfill.%以某危险废物填埋场为研究对象,在收集其水文地质资料基础上,运用Visual Modflow建立填埋场地下水水流和

  17. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  18. Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 5. Well installation, water-level data, and surface- and ground-water geochemistry in the Straight Creek drainage basin, Red River Valley, New Mexico, 2001-03

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naus, Cheryl A.; McCleskey, R. Blaine; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; Donohoe, Lisa C.; Hunt, Andrew G.; Paillet, Frederick L.; Morin, Roger H.; Verplanck, Philip L.

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Environment Department, is investigating the pre-mining ground-water chemistry at the Molycorp molybdenum mine in the Red River Valley, northern New Mexico. The primary approach is to determine the processes controlling ground-water chemistry at an unmined, off-site, proximal analog. The Straight Creek drainage basin, chosen for this purpose, consists of the same quartz-sericite-pyrite altered andesitic and rhyolitic volcanic rock of Tertiary age as the mine site. The weathered and rugged volcanic bedrock surface is overlain by heterogeneous debris-flow deposits that interfinger with alluvial deposits near the confluence of Straight Creek and the Red River. Pyritized rock in the upper part of the drainage basin is the source of acid rock drainage (pH 2.8-3.3) that infiltrates debris-flow deposits containing acidic ground water (pH 3.0-4.0) and bedrock containing water of circumneutral pH values (5.6-7.7). Eleven observation wells were installed in the Straight Creek drainage basin. The wells were completed in debris-flow deposits, bedrock, and interfingering debris-flow and Red River alluvial deposits. Chemical analyses of ground water from these wells, combined with chemical analyses of surface water, water-level data, and lithologic and geophysical logs, provided information used to develop an understanding of the processes contributing to the chemistry of ground water in the Straight Creek drainage basin. Surface- and ground-water samples were routinely collected for determination of total major cations and selected trace metals; dissolved major cations, selected trace metals, and rare-earth elements; anions and alkalinity; and dissolved-iron species. Rare-earth elements were determined on selected samples only. Samples were collected for determination of dissolved organic carbon, mercury, sulfur isotopic composition (34S and 18O of sulfate), and water isotopic composition (2H and 18O) during

  19. Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Malet

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between rainfall, hydrology and landslide movement are often difficult to establish. In this context, ground-water flow analyses and dynamic modelling can help to clarify these complex relations, simulate the landslide hydrological behaviour in real or hypothetical situations, and help to forecast future scenarios based on environmental change. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of including more temporal and spatial information in landslide hydrology forecasting, by using a physically based spatially distributed model. Results of the hydrological and geomorphological investigation of the Super-Sauze earthflow, one of the persistently active landslide occurring in clay-rich material of the French Alps, are presented. Field surveys, continuous monitoring and interpretation of the data have shown that, in such material, the groundwater level fluctuates on a seasonal time scale, with a strong influence of the unsaturated zone. Therefore a coupled unsaturated/saturated model, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, fissure flow and meltwater flow is needed to adequately represent the landslide hydrology. The conceptual model is implemented in a 2.5-D spatially distributed hydrological model. The model is calibrated and validated on a multi-parameters database acquired on the site since 1997. The complex time-dependent and three-dimensional groundwater regime is well described, in both the short- and long-term. The hydrological model is used to forecast the future hydrological behaviour of the earthflow in response to potential environmental changes.

  20. Identification and level of organochlorine insecticide contamination in groundwater and iridology analysis for people in Upper Citarum cascade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oginawati, K.; Pratama, M. A.

    2016-03-01

    Organochlorines are the main pollutants in the class of persistent organic pollutants which are types of pollutants that are being questioned worldwide due to chronic persistence, toxicity and bioaccumulation. Human around the Citarum River are still using groundwater as a drinking source. It is very risky for people health that consume groundwater because in 2009 the application of organochlorine still found in the Upper Citarum watershed rice field and had potential to contaminate groundwater. Groundwater was analyzed with nine species belonging to the organochlorine pollutants Organic Peristent types. 7 types of organochlorinesAldrin was detected with an average concentration of 0.09 ppb, dieldrin with an average concentration of 24 ppb, heptaklor with an average concentration of 0.51 ppb, with concentrations of endosulfan on average 0.73 ppb, DDT with average concentration of 0.13 ppb, Lindan with an average concentration of 1.2 ppb, endrin with an average concentration of 0.03 ppb. Types with the highest concentration of organochlorine a lindan and endosulfan. Residues of aldrin, dieldrin and heptaklor in groundwater already exceeds the quality standards for drinking water Permenkes 492/2010. Based on the iridology analysis obtained several systems are expected to nervous, immune and reproductive system disorders and toxin deposits under the skin.

  1. Discussion on the Initial Water Level of Groundwater%关于地下水初见水位的讨论

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尤苏南

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the analysis and discussion on initial water level of groundwater according to different understanding offered by investigation competitors; besides, it also puts forward the author's own ideas for colleagues in reference.%针对勘察同行们对地下水初见水位的不同理解,进行分析和讨论,提出了自己的看法,可供勘察同行们工作中参考.

  2. Geostatistical analysis of groundwater level using Euclidean and non-Euclidean distance metrics and variable variogram fitting criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodoridou, Panagiota G.; Karatzas, George P.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Corzo Perez, Gerald A.

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater level is an important information in hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods are often employed to map the free surface of an aquifer. In geostatistical analysis using Kriging techniques the selection of the optimal variogram model is very important for the optimal method performance. This work compares three different criteria, the least squares sum method, the Akaike Information Criterion and the Cressie's Indicator, to assess the theoretical variogram that fits to the experimental one and investigates the impact on the prediction results. Moreover, five different distance functions (Euclidean, Minkowski, Manhattan, Canberra, and Bray-Curtis) are applied to calculate the distance between observations that affects both the variogram calculation and the Kriging estimator. Cross validation analysis in terms of Ordinary Kriging is applied by using sequentially a different distance metric and the above three variogram fitting criteria. The spatial dependence of the observations in the tested dataset is studied by fitting classical variogram models and the Matérn model. The proposed comparison analysis performed for a data set of two hundred fifty hydraulic head measurements distributed over an alluvial aquifer that covers an area of 210 km2. The study area is located in the Prefecture of Drama, which belongs to the Water District of East Macedonia (Greece). This area was selected in terms of hydro-geological data availability and geological homogeneity. The analysis showed that a combination of the Akaike information Criterion for the variogram fitting assessment and the Brays-Curtis distance metric provided the most accurate cross-validation results. The Power-law variogram model provided the best fit to the experimental data. The aforementioned approach for the specific dataset in terms of the Ordinary Kriging method improves the prediction efficiency in comparison to the classical Euclidean distance metric. Therefore, maps of the spatial

  3. Estimating hydraulic parameters of a heterogeneous aquitard using long-term multi-extensometer and groundwater level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Chao; Zhou, Zhifang; Illman, Walter A.; Guo, Qiaona; Wang, Jinguo

    2017-05-01

    The classical aquitard-drainage model COMPAC has been modified to simulate the compaction process of a heterogeneous aquitard consisting of multiple sub-units (Multi-COMPAC). By coupling Multi-COMPAC with the parameter estimation code PEST++, the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K v) and elastic (S ske) and inelastic (S skp) skeletal specific-storage values of each sub-unit can be estimated using observed long-term multi-extensometer and groundwater level data. The approach was first tested through a synthetic case with known parameters. Results of the synthetic case revealed that it was possible to accurately estimate the three parameters for each sub-unit. Next, the methodology was applied to a field site located in Changzhou city, China. Based on the detailed stratigraphic information and extensometer data, the aquitard of interest was subdivided into three sub-units. Parameters K v, S ske and S skp of each sub-unit were estimated simultaneously and then were compared with laboratory results and with bulk values and geologic data from previous studies, demonstrating the reliability of parameter estimates. Estimated S skp values ranged within the magnitude of 10-4 m-1, while K v ranged over 10-10-10-8 m/s, suggesting moderately high heterogeneity of the aquitard. However, the elastic deformation of the third sub-unit, consisting of soft plastic silty clay, is masked by delayed drainage, and the inverse procedure leads to large uncertainty in the S ske estimate for this sub-unit.

  4. Estimating hydraulic parameters of a heterogeneous aquitard using long-term multi-extensometer and groundwater level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Chao; Zhou, Zhifang; Illman, Walter A.; Guo, Qiaona; Wang, Jinguo

    2017-09-01

    The classical aquitard-drainage model COMPAC has been modified to simulate the compaction process of a heterogeneous aquitard consisting of multiple sub-units (Multi-COMPAC). By coupling Multi-COMPAC with the parameter estimation code PEST++, the vertical hydraulic conductivity ( K v) and elastic ( S ske) and inelastic ( S skp) skeletal specific-storage values of each sub-unit can be estimated using observed long-term multi-extensometer and groundwater level data. The approach was first tested through a synthetic case with known parameters. Results of the synthetic case revealed that it was possible to accurately estimate the three parameters for each sub-unit. Next, the methodology was applied to a field site located in Changzhou city, China. Based on the detailed stratigraphic information and extensometer data, the aquitard of interest was subdivided into three sub-units. Parameters K v, S ske and S skp of each sub-unit were estimated simultaneously and then were compared with laboratory results and with bulk values and geologic data from previous studies, demonstrating the reliability of parameter estimates. Estimated S skp values ranged within the magnitude of 10-4 m-1, while K v ranged over 10-10-10-8 m/s, suggesting moderately high heterogeneity of the aquitard. However, the elastic deformation of the third sub-unit, consisting of soft plastic silty clay, is masked by delayed drainage, and the inverse procedure leads to large uncertainty in the S ske estimate for this sub-unit.

  5. Limits to Global Groundwater Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graaf, I. D.; Van Beek, R.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2015-12-01

    In regions with frequent water stress and large aquifer systems, groundwater is often used as an additional fresh water source. For many regions of the world groundwater abstraction exceeds groundwater recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The most direct effect of groundwater depletion is declining of water tables, leading to reduced groundwater discharge needed to sustain base-flow to e.g. rivers. Next to that, pumping costs increase, wells dry up and land subsidence occurs. These problems are expected to increase in the near future due to growing population and climate changes. This poses the urgent question of what the limits are of groundwater consumption worldwide. We simulate global water availability (5 arc-minute resolution, for 1960-2050) using the hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al. 2011), coupled to a groundwater model based on MODFLOW (de Graaf et al. 2015), allowing for groundwater - surface water interactions. The groundwater model includes a parameterization of world's confined and unconfined aquifer systems needed for a realistic simulation of groundwater head dynamics. Water demands are included (from Wada et al. 2014). We study the limits to water consumption, focusing on locally attainable groundwater and groundwater levels critical to rivers to sustain low flows. We show an increasing trend (1960-2050) in groundwater head declines, due to increase in groundwater demand. Also, stream flow will decrease and low flow conditions will occur more frequent and will be longer in duration in the near future, especially for irrigated areas. Next to that, we provide a global overview of the years it takes until groundwater gets unattainable for e.g. a local farmer (100 m below land-surface used as a proxy), and estimate the increase in pumping cost for the near future. The results show where and when limits of groundwater consumption are reached globally.

  6. Evaluation of levels of antibiotic resistance in groundwater-derived E. coli isolates in the Midwest of Ireland and elucidation of potential predictors of resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dwyer, Jean; Hynds, Paul; Pot, Matthieu; Adley, Catherine C.; Ryan, Michael P.

    2017-06-01

    Antibiotic-resistant (pathogenic and non-pathogenic) organisms and genes are now acknowledged as significant emerging aquatic contaminants with potentially adverse human and ecological health impacts, and thus require monitoring. This study is the first to investigate levels of resistance among Irish groundwater (private wells) samples; Escherichia coli isolates were examined against a panel of commonly prescribed human and veterinary therapeutic antibiotics, followed by determination of the causative factors of resistance. Overall, 42 confirmed E. coli isolates were recovered from a groundwater-sampling cohort. Resistance to the human panel of antibiotics was moderate; nine (21.4%) E. coli isolates demonstrated resistance to one or more human antibiotics. Conversely, extremely high levels of resistance to veterinary antibiotics were found, with all isolates presenting resistance to one or more veterinary antibiotics. Particularly high levels of resistance (93%) were found with respect to the aminoglycoside class of antibiotics. Results of statistical analysis indicate a significant association between the presence of human (multiple) antibiotic resistance ( p = 0.002-0.011) and both septic tank density and the presence of vulnerable sub-populations (antibiotics, results point to a significant relationship ( p = antibiotic resistant E. coli. Groundwater continues to be an important resource in Ireland, particularly in rural areas; thus, results of this preliminary study offer a valuable insight into the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in the hydrogeological environment and establish a need for further research with a larger geological diversity.

  7. Groundwater management for agriculture and nature: an economic analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.

    2001-01-01

    Key words: desiccation of nature, economics of water management, groundwater extraction, groundwater level management, ecohydrology, agriculture, policy instruments.

    As a result of declining groundwater levels, nature in the Netherlands is suffering

  8. Groundwater Management for Agriculture and Nature : an Economic Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.

    2001-01-01

    Key words: desiccation of nature, economics of water management, groundwater extraction, groundwater level management, ecohydrology, agriculture, policy instruments.As a result of declining groundwater levels, nature in the Netherlands is suffering from desiccation. Since measures taken to raise gro

  9. Risk and Damage As A Main Factors of Groundwater Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharova, Julia V.

    It's well known that groundwater is widely used for potable water supply in compar- ison with surface water. However significant urbanization, intensive growth of indus- try, quite limited investments for reconstractision of existed manufactures and also imperfect environmental protective legislation, all these are the cause of ecosystem degradation. Because of these the problem of both preventing of change in groundwa- ter chemical composition and forecasting of negative processes caused by economical activity is the main at present. According to data of Ministry of Economy, the increas- ing of total production in all spheres of industry till 2004 is forecasted. All these lead to increasing of anthropogenic load on ecosystems. So, the problem of environmental risk assessment including groundwater is actual. The methodology of risk assessment includes natural groundwater protection and the damage cost. The first is based on the time calculation of contaminated water in- filtration through the soil and vadoze zone till groundwater level, i.e. assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The second (damage cost) is based on the cost value of measures aimed to the elimination of contamination aftereffects. Damage can be direct and indirect. The first appears as a result of direct destroying of buildings, agricultural areas, natural landscapes, people and animals death or sickness. and amount of direct damage is determined by expendures, necessary for reduction of objects. The second, indirect, damage is determined by product losses or other negative affects connected with supply lines, deterioration of ecological conditions. It is necessary to mark that risk assessment is very important for planning of hy- drotechnical, engineering and civil construction (e.g., construction and location of different buildings depending from hydrogeological and geological conditions; or- ganization of well-fields and etc.), because all these factors correctly estimated can eleminate or

  10. Effects of groundwater levels and headwater wetlands on streamflow in the Charlie Creek basin, Peace River watershed, west-central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T.M.; Sacks, L.A.; Hughes, J.D.

    2010-01-01

    The Charlie Creek basin was studied from April 2004 to December 2005 to better understand how groundwater levels in the underlying aquifers and storage and overflow of water from headwater wetlands preserve the streamflows exiting this least-developed tributary basin of the Peace River watershed. The hydrogeologic framework, physical characteristics, and streamflow were described and quantified for five subbasins of the 330-square mile Charlie Creek basin, allowing the contribution of its headwaters area and tributary subbasins to be separately quantified. A MIKE SHE model simulation of the integrated surface-water and groundwater flow processes in the basin was used to simulate daily streamflow observed over 21 months in 2004 and 2005 at five streamflow stations, and to quantify the monthly and annual water budgets for the five subbasins including the changing amount of water stored in wetlands. Groundwater heads were mapped in Zone 2 of the intermediate aquifer system and in the Upper Floridan aquifer, and were used to interpret the location of artesian head conditions in the Charlie Creek basin and its relation to streamflow. Artesian conditions in the intermediate aquifer system induce upward groundwater flow into the surficial aquifer and help sustain base flow which supplies about two-thirds of the streamflow from the Charlie Creek basin. Seepage measurements confirmed seepage inflow to Charlie Creek during the study period. The upper half of the basin, comprised largely of the Upper Charlie Creek subbasin, has lower runoff potential than the lower basin, more storage of runoff in wetlands, and periodically generates no streamflow. Artesian head conditions in the intermediate aquifer system were widespread in the upper half of the Charlie Creek basin, preventing downward leakage from expansive areas of wetlands and enabling them to act as headwaters to Charlie Creek once their storage requirements were met. Currently, the dynamic balance between wetland

  11. MODFLOW-NWT model used to evaluate the potential effect of groundwater pumpage and increased sea level on canal leakage and regional groundwater flow in Miami-Dade County, Florida

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A three-dimensional, surface-water/groundwater model (MODFLOW-NWT with the Surface-Water Routing Process) was developed to the predict the effects of groundwater...

  12. Application of regularized RBF network model in the groundwater level prediction%正则化RBF网络模型在地下水位预测中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张殷钦; 刘俊民; 郝健

    2011-01-01

    【目的】建立地下水位预测的正则化RBF网络模型,为区域地下水资源的利用、规划和管理提供决策依据。【方法】以MATLAB7.0为平台,用函数newrb创建正则化RBF网络模型,基于宝鸡峡灌区B210号观测井1983-2009年的地下水位埋深资料,对网络模型进行训练后再用测试集检验,分别绘制训练集与测试集的拟合曲线,同时计算实测值与预测值间的相对误差(RE)、平均绝对偏差(MAD)和均方误差(MSE),并将其与BP网络模型的相应值进行对比。【结果】正则化RBF网络模型和BP网络模型的相对误差均小于5%,平均绝对偏差分别为0.53和0.85,均方误差分别为0.54和1.15,相比之下,正则化RBF网络模型的预测精度更高。【结论】训练样本和测试样本的合理选取为时间序列的拟合扩展了思路,良好的泛化能力使正则化RBF网络模型在区域地下水位预测中具有一定的可行性。%【Objective】 Establishing regularized RBF network model for groundwater level prediction can provide strategic decision for groundwater use,planning and management.【Method】 Regularized RBF network model was built employing newrb function in MATLAB7.0 for well B210 in Baojixia irrigation area based on the groundwater level depth data from 1983 to 2009.The training sets and testing sets were used to train and test the network respectively.Corresponding fitting curve was plotted as well.Meanwhile,relative error(RE),mean absolute deviation(MAD) and mean-square error(MSE) between predicted and measured values were all calculated and the comparison was addressed with BP network model.【Result】 RE of both regularized RBF and BP network model is less than 5%,MAD is 0.53 and 0.85,MSE is 0.54 and 1.15 respectively.By contrast,the precision of regularized RBF network model about predicted values is much higher.【Conclusion】 Selecting training sample and testing sample reasonably has provided a new

  13. Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future.

    Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology.

    Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided.

    Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961–1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for

  14. Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate–hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961–1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice

  15. Derivation of Threshold Values for Groundwater in Romania, in order to distinguish Point & Diffuse pollution from natural background levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, P.N.M.; Radu, E.; Vliegenthart, F.; Balaet, R.

    2010-01-01

    Romania aims to adopt and implement the European Union's legislation, also including that for the field of water management. Like other countries, groundwater in Romania is locally polluted from point sources, such as leaking landfills, as well as from diffuse pollution sources, include fertilizers,

  16. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  17. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  18. Guidelines for selecting codes for ground-water transport modeling of low-level waste burial sites. Volume 2. Special test cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmons, C.S.; Cole, C.R.

    1985-08-01

    This document was written for the National Low-Level Waste Management Program to provide guidance for managers and site operators who need to select ground-water transport codes for assessing shallow-land burial site performance. The guidance given in this report also serves the needs of applications-oriented users who work under the direction of a manager or site operator. The guidelines are published in two volumes designed to support the needs of users having different technical backgrounds. An executive summary, published separately, gives managers and site operators an overview of the main guideline report. Volume 1, titled ''Guideline Approach,'' consists of Chapters 1 through 5 and a glossary. Chapters 2 through 5 provide the more detailed discussions about the code selection approach. This volume, Volume 2, consists of four appendices reporting on the technical evaluation test cases designed to help verify the accuracy of ground-water transport codes. 20 refs.

  19. Information Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  20. Stochastic Analysis and Forecasts of the Patterns of Speed, Acceleration, and Levels of Material Stock Accumulation in Society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fishman, Tomer; Schandl, Heinz; Tanikawa, Hiroki

    2016-04-01

    The recent acceleration of urbanization and industrialization of many parts of the developing world, most notably in Asia, has resulted in a fast-increasing demand for and accumulation of construction materials in society. Despite the importance of physical stocks in society, the empirical assessment of total material stock of buildings and infrastructure and reasons for its growth have been underexplored in the sustainability literature. We propose an innovative approach for explaining material stock dynamics in society and create a country typology for stock accumulation trajectories using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology, a stochastic approach commonly used in business studies and economics to inspect and forecast time series. This enables us to create scenarios for future demand and accumulation of building materials in society, including uncertainty estimates. We find that the so-far overlooked aspect of acceleration trends of material stock accumulation holds the key to explaining material stock growth, and that despite tremendous variability in country characteristics, stock accumulation is limited to only four archetypal growth patterns. The ability of nations to change their pattern will be a determining factor for global sustainability.

  1. Forecasting the Allocative Efficiency of Carbon Emission Allowance Financial Assets in China at the Provincial Level in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shihong Zeng

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available As the result of climate change and deteriorating global environmental quality, nations are under pressure to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases per unit of GDP. China has announced that it is aiming not only to reduce carbon emission per unit of GDP, but also to consume increased amounts of non-fossil energy. The carbon emission allowance is a new type of financial asset in each Chinese province and city that also affects individual firms. This paper attempts to examine the allocative efficiency of carbon emission reduction and non-fossil energy consumption by employing a zero sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA model, given the premise of fixed CO2 emissions as well as non-fossil energy consumption. In making its forecasts, the paper optimizes allocative efficiency in 2020 using 2010 economic and carbon emission data from 30 provinces and cities across China as its baseline. An efficient allocation scheme is achieved for all the provinces and cities using the ZSG-DEA model through five iterative calculations.

  2. Groundwater level monitoring sampling and analysis plan for environmental monitoring in Waste Area Grouping 6 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-04-01

    This Sampling and Analysis Plan addresses groundwater level monitoring activities that will be conducted in support of the Environmental Monitoring Plan for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 6. WAG 6 is a shallow-burial land disposal facility for low-level radioactive waste at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a research facility owned by the US Department of Energy and managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Groundwater level monitoring will be conducted at 129 sites within the WAG. All of the sites will be manually monitored on a semiannual basis. Forty-five of the 128 wells, plus one site in White Oak Lake, will also be equipped with automatic water level monitoring equipment. The 46 sites are divided into three groups. One group will be equipped for continuous monitoring of water level, conductivity, and temperature. The other two groups will be equipped for continuous monitoring of water level only. The equipment will be rotated between the two groups. The data collected from the water level monitoring will be used to support determination of the contaminant flux at WAG 6.

  3. Estimation of spatial distrubition of groundwater level and risky areas of seawater intrusion on the coastal region in Çarşamba Plain, Turkey, using different interpolation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Hakan

    2014-08-01

    Groundwater level plays a significant role in coastal plains. Heavy pumping and excessive use of near-coast groundwater can increase the intrusion of seawater into the aquifers. In the present study, groundwater levels were measured at 59 groundwater wells at different times during pre- and post-irrigation seasons (April and September of the year 2012) in Çarşamba Plain, Turkey. To select the best method, two deterministic interpolation methods (inverse distance weighing (IDW) with the weights of 1, 2, and 3 and radial basis function (RBF) with spline with tension (SPT) and completely regularized spline (CRS)) and two stochastic methods (ordinary kriging (OK) with spherical, exponential, and Gaussian variograms) and cokriging (COK)) were compared and then the best interpolation method was used to evaluate the spatial distribution of groundwater levels in different seasons and seasonal changes. A total of nine different techniques were tested. Also, risky areas of seawater intrusion in coastal area were determined using the best methods for two periods. The performance of these interpolation methods is evaluated by using a validation test method. Statistical indices of correlation (R (2)), mean absolute error (MAE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE) were used to select and validate the best methods. Comparisons between predicted and observed values indicated RBF as the optimal method for groundwater level estimation in April and September. When the best method RBF and the worst method IDW were compared, significant differences were observed in the spatial distribution of groundwater. Results of the study also revealed that excessive groundwater withdrawals during the post-irrigation season dropped the groundwater levels up to 2.0 m in some sections. With regard to seawater intrusion, 9,103 ha of land area was determined to be highly risky and risky.

  4. High-resolution monitoring across the soil-groundwater interface - Revealing small-scale hydrochemical patterns with a novel multi-level well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassen, Niklas; Griebler, Christian; Stumpp, Christine

    2016-04-01

    Biogeochemical turnover processes in the subsurface are highly variable both in time and space. In order to capture this variability, high resolution monitoring systems are required. Particular in riparian zones the understanding of small-scale biogeochemical processes is of interest, as they are regarded as important buffer zones for nutrients and contaminants with high turnover rates. To date, riparian research has focused on influences of groundwater-surface water interactions on element cycling, but little is known about processes occurring at the interface between the saturated and the unsaturated zone during dynamic flow conditions. Therefore, we developed a new type of high resolution multi-level well (HR-MLW) that has been installed in the riparian zone of the Selke river. This HR-MLW for the first time enables to derive water samples both from the unsaturated and the saturated zone across one vertical profile with a spatial vertical resolution of 0.05 to 0.5 m to a depth of 4 m b.l.s. Water samples from the unsaturated zone are extracted via suction cup sampling. Samples from the saturated zone are withdrawn through glass filters and steel capillaries. Both, ceramic cups and glass filters, are installed along a 1" HDPE piezometer tube. First high resolution hydrochemical profiles revealed a distinct depth-zonation in the riparian alluvial aquifer. A shallow zone beneath the water table carried a signature isotopically and hydrochemically similar to the nearby river, while layers below 1.5 m were influenced by regional groundwater. This zonation showed temporal dynamics related to groundwater table fluctuations and microbial turnover processes. The HR-MLW delivered new insight into mixing and turnover processes between riverwater and groundwater in riparian zones, both in a temporal and spatial dimension. With these new insights, we are able to improve our understanding of dynamic turnover processes at the soil - groundwater interface and of surface

  5. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R; Barnes, Alan

    2014-07-29

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.

  6. Discussion of 'Reservoir Computing approach to Great Lakes water level forecasting' by P. Coulibaly [J. Hydrol. 381(2010) 76-88

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, Robert J.; Mount, Nick J.; Shamseldin, Asaad Y.

    2012-02-01

    This paper extends published findings on the use of standard and recurrent neural network solutions for dynamical system modelling/monthly water level forecasting of the Great Lakes, North America. Earlier results are visualised and benchmarked using multiple linear regression. Feedforward solutions are observed to perform either linear or quasi-linear modelling operations. The superior performance of recurrent solutions is attributed to their highly dynamic, non-linear structure, influencing the manner in which feedback loops are incorporated. The echo state network was very powerful in such respects. Of particular interest, our research has also demonstrated that the inclusion of a recursive term in a linear regression model will have no impact on its predicted output.

  7. Physical, chemical, and mineralogical data from surficial deposits, groundwater levels, and water composition in the area of Franklin Lake playa and Ash Meadows, California and Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Harland L.; Breit, George N.; Yount, James C.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Reheis, Marith C.; Skipp, Gary L.; Fisher, Eric M.; Lamothe, Paul J.

    2011-01-01

    This report presents data and describes the methods used to determine the physical attributes, as well as the chemical and mineralogical composition of surficial deposits; groundwater levels; and water composition in the area of Franklin Lake playa and Ash Meadows, California and Nevada. The results support studies that examine (1) the interaction between groundwater and the ground surface, and the transport of solutes through the unsaturated zone; (2) the potential for the accumulation of metals and metalloids in surface crusts; (3) emission of dust from metal-rich salt crust; and (4) the effects of metal-rich dusts on human and ecosystem health. The evaporation of shallow (salt in the subsurface and (or) the formation of salt crusts at the ground surface. Ground-surface characteristics such as hardness, electrical conductivity, and mineralogy depend on the types and forms of these salt crusts. In the study area, salt crusts range from hard and bedded to soft and loose (Reynolds and others, 2009). Depending on various factors such as the depth and composition of groundwater and sediment characteristics of the unsaturated zone, salt crusts may accumulate relatively high contents of trace elements. Soft, loose salt crusts are highly vulnerable to wind erosion and transport. These vulnerable crusts, which may contain high contents of potentially toxic trace elements, can travel as atmospheric dust and affect human and ecosystem health at local to regional scales.

  8. Groundwater data network interoperability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodaric, Boyan; Booth, Nathaniel; Boisvert, Eric; Lucido, Jessica M.

    2016-01-01

    Water data networks are increasingly being integrated to answer complex scientific questions that often span large geographical areas and cross political borders. Data heterogeneity is a major obstacle that impedes interoperability within and between such networks. It is resolved here for groundwater data at five levels of interoperability, within a Spatial Data Infrastructure architecture. The result is a pair of distinct national groundwater data networks for the United States and Canada, and a combined data network in which they are interoperable. This combined data network enables, for the first time, transparent public access to harmonized groundwater data from both sides of the shared international border.

  9. HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTS OF DANUBE FLOOD 2013 BY THE HUNGARIAN HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING SERVICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. CSÍK

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The significant lead time resulting from the use of the OLSER system of the Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service is of key importance in making timely preparations for flood defence. Due to continuous improvements to the quantitative meteorological forecast models (primarily the generally used ECMWF model and the OLSER system over the past years, we have by now reached a point where the previously separately managed flood peak forecasting and continuous forecasting can no longer be interpreted independently. Continuous forecasting taking into account precipitation forecasts and monitoring spatial changes of the complex physics-based concentration process also offers a level of accuracy suitable to identify peak values. The flood wave of June 2013 along the Hungarian Danube section exceeded the ever observed highest high water levels everywhere (except for gauge Mohács. The forecasts prepared by HHFS played a crucial role both in terms of lead time and the forecasted water levels.

  10. Management of karstic coastal groundwater in a changing environment (Salento, southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polemio, Maurizio; Romanazzi, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Keywords: groundwater management, numerical modelling, MODFLOW, SEAWAT, climate change, coastal karst aquifer We have been witness, during the second half of the 20th century, of an increase of groundwater discharge. Today a great number of aquifers are overexploited in the world. Problems ties to overexploitation, as piezometric decline and increase of seawater intrusion, are so more amplify in the coastal aquifers, and in particular, in karst coastal aquifers. Seawater intrusion, in fact, is a pervasive problem affecting coastal aquifer, where the concentration of population and the increasing water demand creates risks of overexploitation, especially in those areas where is the only resource of drinking and irrigation water. The whole effect could be a groundwater quality and quantity degradation. This is very often the case of coastal karst aquifers of Mediterranean countries. The general purpose of this paper is to prove the capability of large-scale numerical models in management of groundwater, in particular for achieve forecast scenarios to evaluate the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources. Study area is the karst coastal aquifer of Salento (Southern Italy), largely utilized to satisfy the agricultural demand and drinking demand with huge effects in terms of reduced availability and increasing salinity. The computer codes selected for numerical groundwater modelling were MODFLOW and SEAWAT. Groundwater flow modelling is based on the concept of a equivalent homogeneous porous medium. Three forecast transient scenarios, referred to 2001-2020, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, were implemented, on the basis of calibrated and validated model, with the aim to predicting the evolution of piezometric level and seawater intrusion. The scenarios were discussed considering the effects of climate change, sea level rise and change of sea salinity. Some irrigation discharge scenarios were considered in the discussion . Results shows qualitative and quantitative

  11. Effect of diversified crop rotations on groundwater levels and crop water productivity in the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaolin; Chen, Yuanquan; Pacenka, Steven; Gao, Wangsheng; Ma, Li; Wang, Guangya; Yan, Peng; Sui, Peng; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

    2015-03-01

    Water shortage is the major bottleneck that limits sustainable yield of agriculture in the North China Plain. Due to the over-exploitation of groundwater for irrigating the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping systems, a groundwater crisis is becoming increasingly serious. To help identify more efficient and sustainable utilization of the limited water resources, the water consumption and water use efficiency of five irrigated cropping systems were calculated and the effect of cropping systems on groundwater table changes was estimated based on a long term field experiment from 2003 to 2013 in the North China Plain interpreted using a soil-water-balance model. The five cropping systems included sweet potato → cotton → sweet potato → winter wheat-summer maize (SpCSpWS, 4-year cycle), ryegrass-cotton → peanuts → winter wheat-summer maize (RCPWS, 3-year cycle), peanuts → winter wheat-summer maize (PWS, 2-year cycle), winter wheat-summer maize (WS, 1-year cycle), and continuous cotton (Cont C). The five cropping systems had a wide range of annual average actual evapotranspiration (ETa): Cont C (533 mm/year) RCPWS (0.7 m/year) > PWS (0.6 m/year) > SPCSPWS and Cont C (0.4 m/year). The annual average economic output water use efficiency (WUEe) increased in the order SpCSpWS (11.6 yuan ¥ m-3) > RCPWS (9.0 ¥ m-3) > PWS (7.3 ¥ m-3) > WS (6.8 ¥ m-3) > Cont C (5.6 ¥ m-3) from 2003 to 2013. Results strongly suggest that diversifying crop rotations could play a critically important role in mitigating the over-exploitation of the groundwater, while ensuring the food security or boosting the income of farmers in the North China Plain.

  12. Modeling of Morelia Fault Earthquake (Mw=5.4) source fault parameters using the coseismic ground deformation and groundwater level changes data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarychikhina, O.; Glowacka, E.; Mellors, R. J.; Vázquez, R.

    2009-12-01

    On 24 May 2006 at 04:20 (UTC) a moderate-size (Mw=5.4) earthquake struck the Mexicali Valley, Baja California, México, roughly 30 km to the southeast of the city of Mexicali, in the vicinity of the Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field (CPGF). The earthquake occurred on the Morelia fault, one of the east-dipping normal faults in the Mexicali Valley. Locally, this earthquake was strongly felt and caused minor damage. The event created 5 km of surface rupture and down-dip displacements of up to 25-30 cm were measured at some places along this surface rupture. Associated deformation was measured by vertical crackmeter, leveling profile, and Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (D-InSAR). A coseismic step-like groundwater level change was detected at 7 wells. The Mw=5.4 Morelia Fault earthquake had significant scientific interest, first, because of surprisingly strong effects for an earthquake of such size; second, the variability of coseismic effects data from different ground-based and space-based techniques which allows to the better constrain of the source fault parameters. Source parameters for the earthquake were estimated using forward modeling of both surface deformation data and static volume strain change (inferred from coseismic changes in groundwater level). All ground deformation data was corrected by anthropogenic component caused by the geothermal fluid exploitation in the CPGF. Modeling was based on finite rectangular fault embedded in an elastic media. The preferred fault model has a strike, rake, and dip of (48°, -89°, 45°) and has a length of 5.2 km, width of 6.7 km, and 34 cm of uniform slip. The geodetic moment, based on the modeled fault parameters, is 1.18E+17 Nm. The model matches the observed surface deformation, expected groundwater level changes, and teleseismic moment reasonably well and explains in part why the earthquake was so strongly felt in the area.

  13. Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirocha, Jeff D.; Simpson, Matthew D.; Fast, Jerome D.; Berg, Larry K.; Baskett, R.

    2016-04-01

    Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finley et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the

  14. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  15. Groundwater resources management through the applications of simulation modeling: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ajay

    2014-11-15

    The global population is increasing rapidly and expected to touch the 9.5 billion mark by 2050 from the current 7.2 billion. The management of the groundwater resources is a challenging task worldwide against the backdrop of the growing water demand for industrial, agricultural, and domestic uses and shrinking resources. Moreover, this task has been hampered significantly due to declining/rising groundwater levels and associated contamination. A broad range of solutions could be considered to address the aforementioned problems of groundwater management, but the effectiveness of all the solutions and their combinations cannot be verified with field experiments. Given their predictive capability, simulation models are often the only viable means of providing input to management decisions, as they can forecast the likely impacts of a particular water management strategy. This paper presents a comprehensive review on the simulation modeling applications for the management of groundwater resources. The past papers on the overview of groundwater simulation models, use of remote sensing and GIS in groundwater modeling, and application of simulation models in arid and semiarid regions are described in detail. Conclusions are drawn where gaps exist and more research needs to be focused. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of levels of antibiotic resistance in groundwater-derived E. coli isolates in the Midwest of Ireland and elucidation of potential predictors of resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dwyer, Jean; Hynds, Paul; Pot, Matthieu; Adley, Catherine C.; Ryan, Michael P.

    2017-02-01

    Antibiotic-resistant (pathogenic and non-pathogenic) organisms and genes are now acknowledged as significant emerging aquatic contaminants with potentially adverse human and ecological health impacts, and thus require monitoring. This study is the first to investigate levels of resistance among Irish groundwater (private wells) samples; Escherichia coli isolates were examined against a panel of commonly prescribed human and veterinary therapeutic antibiotics, followed by determination of the causative factors of resistance. Overall, 42 confirmed E. coli isolates were recovered from a groundwater-sampling cohort. Resistance to the human panel of antibiotics was moderate; nine (21.4%) E. coli isolates demonstrated resistance to one or more human antibiotics. Conversely, extremely high levels of resistance to veterinary antibiotics were found, with all isolates presenting resistance to one or more veterinary antibiotics. Particularly high levels of resistance (93%) were found with respect to the aminoglycoside class of antibiotics. Results of statistical analysis indicate a significant association between the presence of human (multiple) antibiotic resistance (p = 0.002-0.011) and both septic tank density and the presence of vulnerable sub-populations (<5 years). For the veterinary antibiotics, results point to a significant relationship (p = <0.001) between livestock (cattle) density and the prevalence of multiple antibiotic resistant E. coli. Groundwater continues to be an important resource in Ireland, particularly in rural areas; thus, results of this preliminary study offer a valuable insight into the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in the hydrogeological environment and establish a need for further research with a larger geological diversity.

  17. Forecast Collaboration in Grocery Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aastrup, Jesper; Gammelgaard, Britta

    -requisites, degree of forecast collaboration, demand related contingency factors and outcomes/KPIs based. The hypotheses are tested in a survey among Danish grocery suppliers. The survey findings provide evidence of a positive effect of collaborative orientation and retailer competencies and trustworthiness...... on the degress of forecast collaboration. Also, campaign frequency as a demand related contingency variable is found to positively affect degree of forecast collaboration. Finally, the survey findings provide evidence of a positive effect of degree of forecast collaboration on inventory levels and forecast...

  18. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koshun Yamaoka

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Following the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Italiana (DPC, appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF to report on the current state of knowledge of short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes and indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake. The ICEF reviewed research on earthquake prediction and forecasting, drawing from developments in seismically active regions worldwide. A prediction is defined as a deterministic statement that a future earthquake will or will not occur in a particular geographic region, time window, and magnitude range, whereas a forecast gives a probability (greater than zero but less than one that such an event will occur. Earthquake predictability, the degree to which the future occurrence of earthquakes can be determined from the observable behavior of earthquake systems, is poorly understood. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to reliably predict large earthquakes in seismically active regions on short time scales. Most proposed prediction methods rely on the concept of a diagnostic precursor; i.e., some kind of signal observable before earthquakes that indicates with high probability the location, time, and magnitude of an impending event. Precursor methods reviewed here include changes in strain rates, seismic wave speeds, and electrical conductivity; variations of radon concentrations in groundwater, soil, and air; fluctuations in groundwater levels; electromagnetic variations near and above Earth's surface; thermal anomalies; anomalous animal behavior; and seismicity patterns. The search for diagnostic precursors has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. Therefore, this report focuses on operational

  19. Tide forecasting method based on dynamic weight distribution for operational evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shao-wei QIU; Zeng-chuan DONG; Fen XU; Li SUN; Sheng CHEN

    2009-01-01

    Through analysis of operational evaluation factors for tide forecasting, the relationship between the evaluation factors and the weights of forecasters was examined. A tide forecasting method based on dynamic weight distribution for operational evaluation was developed, and multiple-forecaster synchronous forecasting was realized while avoiding the instability cased by only one forecaster. Weights were distributed to the forecasters according to each one's forecast precision. An evaluation criterion for the professional level of the forecasters was also built. The eligibility rates of forecast results demonstrate the skill of the forecasters and the stability of their forecasts. With the developed tide forecasting method, the precision and reasonableness of tide forecasting are improved. The application of the present method to tide forecasting at the Huangpu Park tidal station demonstrates the validity of the method.

  20. A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Kakeh, Nabil; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

    2015-04-01

    This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7 cm for 1 to 30 days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80 %. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9 cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85 %. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability.

  1. Updated study reporting levels (SRLs) for trace-element data collected for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project, October 2009-March 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Tracy A.; Olsen, Lisa D.; Fram, Miranda S.; Belitz, Kenneth

    2014-01-01

    Groundwater samples have been collected in California as part of statewide investigations of groundwater quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP). The GAMA-PBP is being conducted in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board to assess and monitor the quality of groundwater resources used for drinking-water supply and to improve public knowledge of groundwater quality in California. Quality-control samples (source-solution blanks, equipment blanks, and field blanks) were collected in order to ensure the quality of the groundwater sample results. Olsen and others (2010) previously determined study reporting levels (SRLs) for trace-element results based primarily on field blanks collected in California from May 2004 through January 2008. SRLs are raised reporting levels used to reduce the likelihood of reporting false detections attributable to contamination bias. The purpose of this report is to identify any changes in the frequency and concentrations of detections in field blanks since the last evaluation and update the SRLs for more recent data accordingly. Constituents analyzed were aluminum (Al), antimony (Sb), arsenic (As), barium (Ba), beryllium (Be), boron (B), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), silver (Ag), strontium (Sr), thallium (Tl), tungsten (W), uranium (U), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn). Data from 179 field blanks and equipment blanks collected from March 2006 through March 2013 by the GAMA-PBP indicated that for trace elements that had a change in detection frequency and concentration since the previous review, the shift occurred near October 2009, in conjunction with a change in the capsule filters used by the study. Results for 89 field blanks and equipment blanks collected from October 2009 through March 2013 were

  2. Movement of a tritium plume in shallow groundwater at a legacy low-level radioactive waste disposal site in eastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, C E; Cendón, D I; Harrison, J J; Hankin, S I; Johansen, M P; Payne, T E; Vine, M; Collins, R N; Hoffmann, E L; Loosz, T

    2011-10-01

    Between 1960 and 1968 low-level radioactive waste was buried in a series of shallow trenches near the Lucas Heights facility, south of Sydney, Australia. Groundwater monitoring carried out since the mid 1970s indicates that with the exception of tritium, no radioactivity above typical background levels has been detected outside the immediate vicinity of the trenches. The maximum tritium level detected in ground water was 390 kBq/L and the median value was 5400 Bq/L, decay corrected to the time of disposal. Since 1968, a plume of tritiated water has migrated from the disposal trenches and extends at least 100 m from the source area. Tritium in rainfall is negligible, however leachate from an adjacent and fill represents a significant additional tritium source. Study data indicate variation in concentration levels and plume distribution in response to wet and dry climatic periods and have been used to determine pathways for tritium migration through the subsurface.

  3. Earthquake forecasting: Statistics and Information

    CERN Document Server

    Gertsik, V; Krichevets, A

    2013-01-01

    We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. 'Forecasting' and 'prediction' of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.

  4. Tracing groundwater with low-level detections of halogenated VOCs in a fractured carbonate-rock aquifer, Leetown Science Center, West Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plummer, L. Niel; Sibrell, Philip L.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Hunt, Andrew G.; Schlosser, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Measurements of low-level concentrations of halogenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and estimates of groundwater age interpreted from 3H/3He and SF6 data have led to an improved understanding of groundwater flow, water sources, and transit times in a karstic, fractured, carbonate-rock aquifer at the Leetown Science Center (LSC), West Virginia. The sum of the concentrations of a set of 16 predominant halogenated VOCs (TDVOC) determined by gas chromatography with electron-capture detector (GC–ECD) exceeded that possible for air–water equilibrium in 34 of the 47 samples (median TDVOC of 24,800 pg kg−1), indicating that nearly all the water sampled in the vicinity of the LSC has been affected by addition of halogenated VOCs from non-atmospheric source(s). Leakage from a landfill that was closed and sealed nearly 20 a prior to sampling was recognized and traced to areas east of the LSC using low-level detection of tetrachloroethene (PCE), methyl chloride (MeCl), methyl chloroform (MC), dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), and cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cis-1,2-DCE). Chloroform (CHLF) was the predominant VOC in water from domestic wells surrounding the LSC, and was elevated in groundwater in and near the Fish Health Laboratory at the LSC, where a leak of chlorinated water occurred prior to 2006. The low-level concentrations of halogenated VOCs did not exceed human or aquatic-life health criteria, and were useful in providing an awareness of the intrinsic susceptibility of the fractured karstic groundwater system at the LSC to non-atmospheric anthropogenic inputs. The 3H/3He groundwater ages of spring discharge from the carbonate rocks showed transient behavior, with ages averaging about 2 a in 2004 following a wet climatic period (2003–2004), and ages in the range of 4–7 a in periods of more average precipitation (2008–2009). The SF6 and CFC-12 data indicate older water (model ages of 10s of years or more) in the low-permeability shale of the Martinsburg

  5. Correlation between geology and radon levels in groundwater, soil and indoor air in Bhilangana Valley, Garhwal Himalaya, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choubey, V.M. [Wadia Inst. of Himalayan Geology, Dehra Dun (India); Ramola, R.C. [Dept. of Physics, H.N.B. Garhwal Univ. Campus, Tehri Garhwal (India)

    1997-11-01

    Radon concentrations were measured in soil, air and groundwater in Bhilangana Valley, Garhwal Himalaya, India by using an LR-115 plastic track detector and radon emanometer. Radon concentrations were found to vary from 1 KBq/m{sup 3} to 57 KBq/m{sup 3} in soil, 5 Bq/l to 887 Bq/l in water and 95 Bq/m{sup 3} to 208 Bq/m{sup 3} in air. The recorded values are quite high due to associated uranium mineralization in the area. Radon concentration was also found to depend on the tectonic structure and geology of the area. (orig.)

  6. Statistical analysis of lake levels and field study of groundwater and surface-water exchanges in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015: Chapter A of Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Perry M.; Trost, Jared J.; Diekoff, Aliesha L.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; White, Eric A.; Erickson, Melinda L.; Morel, Daniel L.; Heck, Jessica M.

    2016-10-19

    Water levels declined from 2003 to 2011 in many lakes in Ramsey and Washington Counties in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota; however, water levels in other northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes increased during the same period. Groundwater and surface-water exchanges can be important in determining lake levels where these exchanges are an important component of the water budget of a lake. An understanding of groundwater and surface-water exchanges in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area has been limited by the lack of hydrologic data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Council and Minnesota Department of Health, completed a field and statistical study assessing lake-water levels and regional and local groundwater and surface-water exchanges near northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes. This report documents the analysis of collected hydrologic, water-quality, and geophysical data; and existing hydrologic and geologic data to (1) assess the effect of physical setting and climate on lake-level fluctuations of selected lakes, (2) estimate potential percentages of surface-water contributions to well water across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, (3) estimate general ages for waters extracted from the wells, and (4) assess groundwater inflow to lakes and lake-water outflow to aquifers downgradient from White Bear Lake. Statistical analyses of lake levels during short-term (2002–10) and long-term (1925–2014) periods were completed to help understand lake-level changes across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Comparison of 2002–10 lake levels to several landscape and geologic characteristics explained variability in lake-level changes for 96 northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes. Application of several statistical methods determined that (1) closed-basin lakes (without an active outlet) had larger lake-level declines than flow-through lakes with an outlet; (2

  7. Adaptation level as the basic health status characteristics: possibilitics of its assessment and forecasting of desadaptation violations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vysochyna I.L.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of comprehensive survey with integrative assessment of health state (medical history data, physical examination, anthropometry, battery of psychological tests (Eysenck, Shmishek’s Personality Inventory (teen version, tapping - test by E.P. Ilyin, children's questionnaire of neuroses; test for rapid assessment of health, activity and mood, anxiety diagnosis by Spielberg - Khanin; Luscher test, color relations test level of adaptation was defined in 236 children from orphanages aged from 4 to 18 years. The manifestations of maladjustment were registered both on psychological level (neuroticism, high anxiety, decreased performance, activity and psychological endurance, sleep disturbance, presence of accentuation and neurotic disorders and somatic level (recurrent acute respiratory infections, poor physical development, exacerbation of chronic foci of infection and burdened biological history; this summarizes conclusions on a low level of health status of children in orphanages. The author has developed mathematical models of adaptation assessment and prediction of desadaptation, which allowed to identify children at risk for the development of adaptation disorders and children with maladjustment; according to the level and severity of maladaptive disorders correction programs are designed.

  8. Forecasting model of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowosad, Jakub; Stach, Alfred; Kasprzyk, Idalia; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Piotrowska-Weryszko, Krystyna; Puc, Małgorzata; Grewling, Łukasz; Pędziszewska, Anna; Uruska, Agnieszka; Myszkowska, Dorota; Chłopek, Kazimiera; Majkowska-Wojciechowska, Barbara

    The aim of the study was to create and evaluate models for predicting high levels of daily pollen concentration of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula using a spatiotemporal correlation of pollen count. For each taxon, a high pollen count level was established according to the first allergy symptoms during exposure. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set, using a stratified random split. For each taxon and city, the model was built using a random forest method. Corylus models performed poorly. However, the study revealed the possibility of predicting with substantial accuracy the occurrence of days with high pollen concentrations of Alnus and Betula using past pollen count data from monitoring sites. These results can be used for building (1) simpler models, which require data only from aerobiological monitoring sites, and (2) combined meteorological and aerobiological models for predicting high levels of pollen concentration.

  9. Determination of N-nitrosodimethylamine at part-per-trillion levels in drinking waters and contaminated groundwaters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomkins, B.A.; Griest, W.H.; Higgins, C.E.

    1995-12-01

    N-nitrosodimethylamine is a high, carcinogenic manufacturing by-product of unsymmetrical dimethyl hydrazine a component of rocket fuel. Prior disposal practices resulted in the contamination of groundwater near certain military installations with both species. The current regulatory threshold promulgated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for NDMA in surface waters designated for drinking is 0.7 ng NDMA/L (0.7 pptr)L. Existing procedures for determining NDMA in aqueous samples typically employ dichloromethane extraction followed by concentration to a final volume of 1 mL, and gas chromatographic analysis of a 2 {mu}L aliquot of concentrate using either a nitrogen-phosphorus detector (NPD), mass spectrometric detector, or chemiluminescent nitrogen detector (CLND). Such a protocol does not permit detection of NDMA at the desired health-based criterion unless high-resolution mass spectrometric (HRMS) detectors are employed. The analytical procedure described in this work employed an initial solid-phase extraction of groundwater samples with a preconditioned Empore C{sub 18} disk, used to remove interfering neutral species including di-isopropylmethane phosphonate (DIMP), prior to continuous overnight extraction.

  10. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. krdu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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  1. kgck Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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